Gold

[Daytr]

Skid, you are probably right, well from a Western point of view. i.e. US centric.
I actually think gold can still perform even if equity markets perform, not as well if they weren't but still ok.
Reason being I still think ETF selling slows & perhaps even turns positive. If European markets start improving, perhaps there is less reason to sell gold? I suppose it could also be a reason to sell to put money into the equity markets. If people are more secure & their wealth growing they will buy more jewelry. Lastly & most importantly I don't see the appetite in Asia waning & I think that appetite will outweigh ETF & European selling in 2014.

However if equity markets don't perform in 2014, gold does even better.

I'm not saying gold goes up in all & any conditions, however at the current price level relative to production costs there is reason to be optimistic imo.

[Skol]

As long as the share market remains the ''gamblers delight'' Gold wont do much in the way of major breakthroughs IMO.
They say this is the year to invest in ''growth stocks'' which all to often means a (calculated?) lottery ticket.

Gold is the gamblers delight, it has no yield and no intrinsic value, whereas listed companies make and do real things.
Gold never ever contributed to the world economy except for mining companies digging it out of the ground.

Ask Warren Buffet.

[JBmurc]

Skid, you are probably right, well from a Western point of view. i.e. US centric.
I actually think gold can still perform even if equity markets perform, not as well if they weren't but still ok.
Reason being I still think ETF selling slows & perhaps even turns positive. If European markets start improving, perhaps there is less reason to sell gold? I suppose it could also be a reason to sell to put money into the equity markets. If people are more secure & their wealth growing they will buy more jewelry. Lastly & most importantly I don't see the appetite in Asia waning & I think that appetite will outweigh ETF & European selling in 2014.

However if equity markets don't perform in 2014, gold does even better.

I'm not saying gold goes up in all & any conditions, however at the current price level relative to production costs there is reason to be optimistic imo.

recent history shows GOLD did very well along with world markets ...most bullish moves of late has been JPM building it's physical holdings while also reducing it's massive short position and also selling it's commodities business .....


http://www.cnbc.com/id/101335281
- Six months after announcing plans to sell its physical commodities business, JPMorgan Chase is close to a final deal, according to a source familiar with the matter.

which also works in with ---

Fed considers new limits on banks in physical commodity trade
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/sns-rt-us-banks-commodities-fed-20140113,0,5786718.story

[skid]

Gold is the gamblers delight, it has no yield and no intrinsic value, whereas listed companies make and do real things.
Gold never ever contributed to the world economy except for mining companies digging it out of the ground.

Ask Warren Buffet.
Yin and Yang IMO--You gamble on the sharmarket(flying high)-your gambling against gold (gold reacts IMO)
Unless your you-and then your always against gold and mayby dont consider its relation to the share market and the economy (which are not always the same thing)

Your response was predictable:)

[Daytr]

Moosie, unlike JPM, we won't be bailed out when it all turns to custard!

I really find it hard to believe that JPM had a spec short that large! 7.5M toz is a gob smackingly big position. I wouldn't be surprised if this number included hedging client positions & in fact that I would say that was the majority of the position.


Why worry about import/export, ETF's, premiums, production etc when all you need to do is follow JP Morgan?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Taylor/2014-01-14-2013-Was-the-Year-of-JPMorgan-in-the-Gold-Silver-Markets.html

[macduffy]

I'm not sure that JPM would be either, these days. Perhaps it would have to be another Lehmann Bros, instead?

[JBmurc]

I'm not sure that JPM would be either, these days. Perhaps it would have to be another Lehmann Bros, instead?

No Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, sits on the board of the New York Fed ...the FED can print money out of thin air the likes of JPM will never go bankrupt doesn't matter how big the stuff up or fine the FED can bail them out and US tax payers gets the bill pays the interest...

those at the very top can't lose ..unless the FED's Fiat money lost value completely

[JBmurc]

US Mint Notes Strong Sales Of 2014 Gold, Silver Coins
By Kitco News
Wednesday January 15, 2014 8:19 AM
(Kitco News) - U.S. Mint’s coin sales for 2014 are off to a strong start, with first-day sales of American Eagle silver bullion coins nearly reaching weekly capacity, the Mint said late Tuesday.

The Mint started its 2014 silver sales on Monday, with a weekly allocation of American Eagle silver bullion coins of 3.575 million coins. Between Monday and Tuesday’s sales, 203,500 are left, the Mint said.
http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-01-15/US-Mint-Notes-Strong-Sales-Of-2014-Gold-Silver-Coins.html

[Daytr]

From CPM. I thought this was a good read, maybe its because I agree with him so I find it pleasing & am biased. However he openly states that they called to be short gold in 2013 so they are obviously agnostic which I find refreshing.



http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-christian-011620143

[Daytr]

Comex stocks are getting interesting to say the least !

http://dzswc0o8s13dx.cloudfront.net/goldcore_bloomberg_chart3_16-01-14.png

[Bobcat.]

How quickly market pundits views change w.r.t. precious metals. Most are now getting a lot more bullish :

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-01-17/Higher-Gold-Prices-Forecast-For-Next-Week.html

I'm hoping that by now many others on ShareTrader have also loaded up their portfolios with precious metal stocks.

Looking this morning at a few local stock prices on the Toronto exchange:

OGC up 4%
AQG/ASR up 7%
TRY up 12% !

The contrarian in me feels that this sudden turnaround in favour will mean as prices spike next week it may well be time to unload a few!

Happy surfing.

BC

[Daytr]

I must admit I flicked out of TRY for a 10% profit to get into RSG. Just wanted something with more production so to benefit more from a lift in the POG. Still think TRY can do well, I just have a feeling RSG will outperform.

[Bobcat.]

I must admit I flicked out of TRY for a 10% profit to get into RSG. Just wanted something with more production so to benefit more from a lift in the POG. Still think TRY can do well, I just have a feeling RSG will outperform.

Yep, I know the feeling and can sympathise. I did likewise with ALK - selling at the first spike to take profit earlier this week and free up funds for my purchase of RXL, and now it's already trading 7% higher than the price at which I sold it. Given ALK was your tip, I'm assuming that's one you're still holding (yes?).

There are a few ASX resource stocks jumping nicely this past week: PDN, OZL, NCM, BKY, NST, PRU, GRY, SOC, AQG, etc.

Remember however that last January saw a lift in PM prices before they fell away the next month and following. I've got one eye on the double resistance (previous top and downward trendline) sitting just under 1270USD, ready to sell down if that is not broken.

BC

[Daytr]

Actually jumped out of ALK as well for 15%. Might look to get back in, but again saw what I thought were better opportunities. Still think both TRY & ALK will do well, but WAF at 12c was too good to ignore & RSG I think is compelling. RSG may also be on the radar for take over as reasonable sized production, tow mines to develop & a lot of gold in the ground. I could see a major coming in having a crack at them.

[Skol]

The next round of tapering must be due soon and by some accounts it could be significant. That and dwindling peak demand in china + ETF sales could mean bad news for goldbugs.

The gold demand chart for China is exponential, and we all know what happens to exponential charts.

Right JB?

[Daytr]

I have posted several time is the recent past that 2014 imo will be the year where we see higher gold & lower AUD... We could now be seeing the start of precisely that. A$ gold now @ A$1430.

http://www.24hgold.com/graphiques/picturedata.aspx?graphParam=Gold%2bUSD-aud%2boz%2bMM%2b1&format=172

[JBmurc]

I have posted several time is the recent past that 2014 imo will be the year where we see higher gold & lower AUD... We could now be seeing the start of precisely that. A$ gold now @ A$1430.

http://www.24hgold.com/graphiques/picturedata.aspx?graphParam=Gold%2bUSD-aud%2boz%2bMM%2b1&format=172

Yes should well be a massive turn round in fotunes for many ASX listed
Gold companies we see the AUD stay round these levels and the USD gold price head
Higher we could well see a record in AUD spot prices

[Skol]

Isn't China supposed to be the next dominant world power?

Yeah right!!!

You think that these guys know something you don't perchance?

http://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-millionaires-continue-flee-162812972.html

[Bobcat.]

ASX gold diggers looking good today - e.g. OGC and EVN up 8%, RSG 11%, PRU, KCN and TRY up 12%, and SLR a whopping 20%.

I've taken profit on only one of these. The rest I'm riding a bit further, anticipating some resistance on the POG sometime this week at around 1270USD (tonight?).

Don't you just luv it when a plan comes together.

[Daytr]

Yep, nice day BC. Gold still needs to crack $1260 & hold for mine, but it is looking good at this point, so wouldn't be surprised to see it crack $1260 tonight. Be great to see the AUD continue to slide as well.

[Bobcat.]

Even though I end up paying a bit more brokerage, I've deliberately spread thin my investments across approx 15 precious metal diggers for two good reasons:

1. To mitigate risk (worst case result of any company going rapidly down or under is that I lose no more than ~7% of total funds), and
2. There's a greater prospect of being on the profitable end of a takeover...which is becoming increasingly likely...

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=225611&sn=Detail

I'm interested in hearing from others on this thread as to roughly how many PM companies (or any companies) they hold stock in, if that many is deliberate, and why. Cheers,

BC

[corran]

Hi Bobcat,

My gold/silver shares are spread over a few companies with the majority in OGC. I also have a few uranium stocks and a handful of companies in other sectors.

After being burned in the past with having too much of my capital invested in a few (speculative) stocks I now spread it around a lot more.

I would like to invest in more companies but it's difficult for me to find the time I need to do due diligence on other companies.

[Daytr]

Hey BC, mine varies quite a lot, but generally 3-5 stocks at a time only, but some times as much as seven. I like having money on the sidelines available for an opportunity.

[Daytr]

Another prediction for 2014 maybe coming to fruition. ETFs I predicted would turn net buyer by March/April 2014.
Last week the biggest ETF saw the largest inflow in a year of 7.4 tons. Not huge, but if you compare to what would normally be an outflow its reasonable.

http://www.ibtimes.com/gold-sentiment-shifts-modestly-largest-etp-fund-inflow-one-year-1544169?

[Daytr]

Moosie, the market actually expects the FED to taper at this meeting & the consensus is I believe at pretty much every meeting. So one would imagine its priced in. As I have said on many occasion, bring on the taper as imo taking stimulus away from the equity markets will be good for gold.

I see Deutsche Bank announced a loss of 1.15Bln for the qtr due to "Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE (http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=DBKGn.DE)) reported a surprise pre-tax loss of 1.15 billion euros for the fourth quarter of 2013 due to heavy costs for litigation, restructuring and balance sheet reduction."

I wonder if this includes provisioning for the latest scandals relating to currencies & precious metals that are being investigated? I am an ex banker & I am sick & tired of hearing about one scandal after another. Imagine what the layman in Europe is thinking especially after banks were bailed out & you may have been out of a job for the last 2-5 years...


Better hope there is no more tapering. Next FOMC meeting in 8 days. $1260 big resistance level.

[Daytr]

Moosie I wouldn't normally agree with that for banking having been one for 20 years, but I think your are right just because it seems they cannot be trusted to trade ethically or legally in many cases & it appears really nothing has been learnt from the GFC as it still keeps happening. I think you will find the local banks (Aussie) here are generally pretty good, its mainly the big international investment banks where the majority of issues have come from. Not saying 'ours' are perfect, but the ones I worked for generally tried to do the right thing by the client & operate legally if not ethically.

[JBmurc]

Even though I end up paying a bit more brokerage, I've deliberately spread thin my investments across approx 15 precious metal diggers for two good reasons:

1. To mitigate risk (worst case result of any company going rapidly down or under is that I lose no more than ~7% of total funds), and
2. There's a greater prospect of being on the profitable end of a takeover...which is becoming increasingly likely...

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=225611&sn=Detail

I'm interested in hearing from others on this thread as to roughly how many PM companies (or any companies) they hold stock in, if that many is deliberate, and why. Cheers,

BC

Holding 5 stocks currently which is on the low side having held upto 8 at times
Personal find as I,m investing very short term of late so funds have focused on the
Best likely movers but on good results and profits being taken I,d like to spread the
Net wider once again to 7-8
Only holding two goldies SOC / CVR ,,,, plan to buy back into PGI during the tax loss selling period

[Daytr]

We are also coming into Chinese NY & physical demand is likely to soften a little shortly. All the bank reports I read say shorters are waiting in the wings to come in again after end of January. I'm seeing it as an opportunity & have free up some cash to take advantage if it happens.

[Skol]

I've averaged the end-of-year forecasts of 20 banks, it's $1146. Last year the banks overestimated the gold price by 36%, if we apply the same correction for 2014, the answer is $734.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-incredible-gold-interest-rate-correlation-2014-01-22

[peat]

From Colin Twiggs email this morning.
5373
He does then go on to apply similar type of analysis to the USD index and comments
"Rising interest rates and a stronger dollar, however, are likely to exert
downward pressure on gold."

[Daytr]

Skol, so they were wrong on average by 36%. So that means the price could also end up being $1558 & in AUD gold, which is what I really care about, at current AUD, A$1770! Now that sounds nice.

The banks got it horribly wrong on the way up as well, but nice try Skol.

[Skol]

Oceana Gold resume its hedging programme, must be expecting a fall in the gold price.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/288977/hedging-gold-price-resumed

[JBmurc]

Oceana Gold resume its hedging programme, must be expecting a fall in the gold price.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/288977/hedging-gold-price-resumed

Hardly major hedging with at most a third of yearly production covered for the whole two years... geezz and these guys have been caught out before on hedging the wrong way so hardly the pre-cursor to falling
PM prices

Oceana has resumed some forward contract gold price hedging, because of the softening gold price, partially covering 208,000oz over two years, with a floor price of $US1230 and ceiling at $US1312.

Oceana chief executive Mick Wilkes said the company would get $US1230 per ounce, even if the spot price fell below that level, and conversely, if it was above $US1312 per ounce, would only get that price.

[Daytr]

I just posted this on HC so thought might as well post here.

Wow spectacular night for gold & I must admit I wasn't expecting that. Seems optimistic outlook for the earnings season are being disappointed combined with 'weaker' data out of China & the bonus (well possibly short term) was Sonia Ghandi calling for a review of gold import duties into India. The Minister has already replied in the press saying it's not going to happen. It will be a populist policy to change the duties back, so I expect more political pressure to come & over time they may succeed.

One poster here said be aware that Chinese NY is coming & demand may drop away. Its a valid point & those who dismiss it don't have their eyes open. What we would have seen last night is a lot of short covering, once that is over it will take the fundamentals to drive gold on-ward. With physical demand likely to go into a seasonal soft patch the timing of this rally maybe short lived.

I'm not suggesting gold gets smashed, but I think it will need to put more work in. If we see another strong week of ETF buying then perhaps that starts to change things. I just think we are a wee way away yet from the market looking to go long gold. It will happen, however I'm not so sure its just yet. Very happy to be proven wrong!

Anyway it should be a great end to the week, so happy trading all. ;-)

[JBmurc]

5387

Yes AUD gold up a huge $43oz over night to $1440oz ..... looking at the AUD 10yr gold chart Gold has been much more stable and is far from a collapsing price more so a breather from a strong bull trend thats now building a base to resume the upward pressure...

[Daytr]

Good point JB I hadn't noticed the AUD this morning. Gold up & AUD down, the spectacular trend for Aussie gold producers continues. :cool:

[Bobcat.]

I just posted this on HC so thought might as well post here.

If we see another strong week of ETF buying then perhaps that starts to change things. I just think we are a wee way away yet from the market looking to go long gold. It will happen, however I'm not so sure its just yet. Very happy to be proven wrong!

-)

SPDR Gold up 6 tonnes over the past week (789 to 795)

http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/

Downward trendline has just been touched (at 1265USD) but last night's run may have the legs to break through over the next week (esp with global unrest and fears mounting -- Sochi bombing, Thailand, Kiev/Ukraine riots, etc).
I'm holding and in fact continue to buy (e.g. I picked up some RSG yesterday).

OGC is flying in Toronto up 9%. Others are of course also likely to do well as sentiment shifts over the rest of this month to become even more bullish. I'll be selling only when most pundits are convinced the tide has turned and are buying up large. When taxi drivers and barmen start to discuss it then I'll be out.

BC

[JBmurc]

I did read yesterday that if 1268oz USD was crossed it would be key break to trend much higher
Maybe tonight ...

[Daytr]

Nice one BC. I agree a break of a bit higher & hold & things for gold should get interesting as will break the downtrend.

I don't think I'm positioned particularly well to take advantage today, as mostly in explorers rather than producers, as didn't expect another rally in January to be honest. It should be a great day for the producers.


SPDR Gold up 6 tonnes over the past week (789 to 795)

http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/

Downward trendline has just been touched (at 1265USD) but last night's run may have the legs to break through over the next week (esp with global unrest and fears mounting -- Sochi bombing, Thailand, Kiev/Ukraine riots, etc).
I'm holding and in fact continue to buy (e.g. I picked up some RSG yesterday).

OGC is flying in Toronto up 9%. Others are of course also likely to do well as sentiment shifts over the rest of this month to become even more bullish. I'll be selling only when most pundits are convinced the tide has turned and are buying up large. When taxi drivers and barmen start to discuss it then I'll be out.

BC

[digger]

So why is it that gold if it is to go up always seems to favour Thursday?

[Daytr]

Because its rally night! haha. It's not always Thursday, but when I traded gold for 5 years more often than not a big night would occur on a Thursday.
To be honest we could never work out a good explanation, perhaps more data than average is released on a Thursday? Or perhaps no one wants to get caught up in a Friday doldrum trading day

[Skol]

The moment gold spikes upwards the GLD ETF loses 7 tonnes. Smart gold 'investors' are taking Wells Fargo's advice.
================================================== ===================


Precious-Metals Upswing is a Chance to Get Out: Wells Fargo
.
By Brendan Conway

There’s an upswing of interest — and price gains — in gold and precious-metals miners lately. To Wells Fargo Advisors, it’s a good opportunity to get out.

Here’s what Wells’ Sameer Samana says on the subject in a note released Wednesday:


In our opinion, precious metals are now in a downtrend and the path of least resistance is lower. Bounces in downtrends tend to be small in size and quick in duration. Thus, we believe the recent reprieve in gold and precious metals prices should be taken advantage of to eliminate exposure. Investors concerned about higher inflation and weakness in the dollar should consider this an opportunity to rotate towards a more broadly diversified basket of commodities[.]

[Skol]

In the Year of the Horse (2 days away) avoid metals and mining according to feng shui. You won't need to be Albert Einstein to work out what might happen to the gold price.

[Minerbarejet]

Going on feng shui and Chinese horrorscopes now eh Skol? Can you tell me when the year of the Moose is and what fresh calamity it will bring?Being a Canadian you should know this Moosie. 2014 is the Year of the Moose.
Although you weren't born in a moose year it pretty well describes you to a T.
As an aside I was born in a moose year.
Year of the Moose1918, 1930, 1942, 1954, 1966, 1978, 1990, 2002, 2014People born in the Year of the Moose are popular. They are cheerful, skillful with money, and perceptive, although they sometimes talk too much. The are wise, talented, good with their hands, and sometimes have a weakness for members of the opposite sex. They are impatient and hot-blooded about everything except their daily work. They like entertainment and large crowds of other people like themselves. They are very independent and rarely listen to advice.

[Skol]

Going on feng shui and Chinese horrorscopes now eh Skol? Can you tell me when the year of the Moose is and what fresh calamity it will bring?

The Moose is regarded as an unintelligent, slothful, dawdling animal that makes it an easy target for hunters. They're not known for their high IQ which is why they're often run over and end up lost in cities. They also have fits of bad temper so in the Year of the Moose gold will be the best investment, in all other years it will be a bad investment.

[Bobcat.]

...or the year of the cat?

Humbug.

Gold is up this morning to lift nicely above the rest of this week's close prices. It may yet test again the downward trendline at around 1270USD before the week is out.

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-01-29/template_jimw.htm

Trading to it.

BC

[Daytr]

Yep BC gold is reacting nicely to the FED tapering as expected. Hey & what do you know, equities in the US are off. The market is still short covering in gold & I suspect if we see a break of $1270-1300 area there will be more.

Tapering will suck the wind out of equities & gold will benefit, as we have been seeing in 2014.

[Aaron]

Tapering will suck the wind out of equities & gold will benefit, as we have been seeing in 2014.

I thought tapering was bad for gold as there is less chance QE will destroy the value of a dollar.

[Skol]

The line of least resistance for gold is downward, there's nothing positive. All the economic and political catastrophes promised by the goldbugs have amounted to nothing.

As usual.

[Bobcat.]

You're like a broken record, Skol. It's obvious to the rest of us that Equities are entering a Bear market (except for precious metal diggers of course which will get a boost from the doom and gloom that comes with it). $10m tapering is nothing in the bigger scheme of things and so the remaining $65b/month bond buying will continue the devaluation of fiat currencies. That is, Gold and Silver benefit two fold...as evidenced by today's pivots around the Fed announcement and lift from 1260USD / 19.70USD.

Looking good for the ASX PMs today. OGC up 6% and TGZ up 12% in Toronto.

Tonight's regular bullish run may indeed take the price of gold well over 1270USD.

BC

[Daytr]

That is the market consensus view & gold in USD would normally go down with a stronger dollar. However I think we are going to see an unusual event in that gold in AUD terms goes up with a lower AUD & higher gold combining. With the majority of QE being pumped into equities & the market being short gold, turning off the tap by the FED should see equities struggle & gold will benefit as a result by short covering as we are seeing now & the market eventually going speculatively long. Physical demand has been incredibly strong & will slowly turn the sentiment in gold imo.


I thought tapering was bad for gold as there is less chance QE will destroy the value of a dollar.

[Daytr]

Perhaps Turkey, Argentina & I'm sure there will be others, let alone most or Europe might disagree with Skol. Japan's appetite for gold is also resurgent as a hedge against Abenomics.


You're like a broken record, Skol. It's obvious to the rest of us that Equities are entering a Bear market (except for precious metal diggers of course which will get a boost from the doom and gloom that comes with it). $10m tapering is nothing in the bigger scheme of things and so the remaining $65b/month bond buying will continue the devaluation of fiat currencies. That is, Gold and Silver benefit two fold...as evidenced by today's pivots around the Fed announcement and lift from 1260USD / 19.70USD.

Looking good for the ASX PMs today. OGC up 6% and TGZ up 12% in Toronto.

Tonight's regular bullish run may indeed take the price of gold well over 1270USD.

BC

[Skol]

If you can think of something positive for gold and I mean ANYTHING, let me know.
I might sound like a broken record, stocks have soared and are due for a correction, here's the evidence:
This is a chart of the S&P500 vs gold for 5 years. The S&P doesn't include dividends either.

The S&P Total return Index (incl. div) is up 236% in the last 5 years, gold is up 40%.

[Bobcat.]

But again you're looking back, Skol - wisdom in hindsight achieves very little. To make money you need to also pick new trends going forward, and we can now see Gold and Silver this year heading onward and upward. That has been reinforced by market reaction to today's FOMC meeting.

BC

[Daytr]

I wonder what that chart looks like over 10 years or 12 years? We can all be selective with our data!

Anything positive for gold.... Well how about record physical demand for one! Take the blinkers off Skol.
Its not a broken record, its more like the sound of fingernails down a chalk board.

Anyone who is so anti something cannot have good judgment, be it shares, currencies or precious metals. An open mind is a clear thinking mind.

[Skol]

I wonder what that chart looks like over 10 years or 12 years? We can all be selective with our data!

Anything positive for gold.... Well how about record physical demand for one! Take the blinkers off Skol.


If you're referring to the demand in China, which I'm sure you are, it's exponential and symptomatic of a mania, utterly unsustainable.

[Daytr]

Skol, the Chinese have been denied access to gold, something they have always have had an affinity for, for over 50 years. If you think the demand of 1.3Bln people & their government has been satisfied in 3-4 years then imo you are well off the mark. In percentage terms gold demand may ease as you would expect when as you say demand growth has been exponential, so instead of almost tripling in two years it may only go up 25-50%, however in tons this is massive. There is also pressure being applied to the Indian government to review their new gold duties. It's an election year in India & the gold duties rightly or wrongly are unpopular. If overturned it is easy to see Indian demand to post a new record this year.


If you're referring to the demand in China, which I'm sure you are, it's exponential and symptomatic of a mania, utterly unsustainable.

[skid]

If you can think of something positive for gold and I mean ANYTHING, let me know.
I might sound like a broken record, stocks have soared and are due for a correction, here's the evidence:
This is a chart of the S&P500 vs gold for 5 years. The S&P doesn't include dividends either.

The S&P Total return Index (incl. div) is up 236% in the last 5 years, gold is up 40%.

Something positive for gold --Your still slagging it:)
Of course no one knows for sure where gold will go--but in terms of being overbought--the share market is looking much more dangerous at this stage.
The FED will do its best to create magic but its a tough road when you dont have manipulation of interest rates to achieve goals--they're playing with one hand tied behind their back and because things are still on shaky ground ,odd ball things like small countries getting into trouble can have greater effects on the whole game (if it gets worse)
If you want to get an idea about gold--dont look at gold--look at the things that affect it--like the sharemarket and the availability of easy money. IMHO

[Skol]

Looks like a classic double top.

[Daytr]

[QUOTE=skid;458324]Something positive for gold --Your still slagging it:)

Love it Skid!

[Skol]

Something positive for gold --Your still slagging it:)

True, but I'm right and the so-called 'experts' like Daytr are wrong. Here's the secret to gold. It goes up every 20 years or so when a new generation of suckers stalk the Earth.

Then it crashes and marks time for 20 years. Quite simple, you don't need to be Albert Einstein, all you need to know is that the gold price hinges on 2 things only.

1. Emotion
2. Psychology

You've now passed your degree in gold trading.

Congratulations skid, well done!

[skid]

True, but I'm right and the so-called 'experts' like Daytr are wrong. Here's the secret to gold. It goes up every 20 years or so when a new generation of suckers stalk the Earth.

Then it crashes and marks time for 20 years. Quite simple, you don't need to be Albert Einstein, all you need to know is that the gold price hinges on 2 things only.



1. Emotion
2. Psychology

You've now passed your degree in gold trading.

Congratulations skid, well done!

Thank you Skol:) Pretty much the same for the share market--so i guess that would be a double major:cool:

[Skol]

Thank you Skol:) Pretty much the same for the share market--so i guess that would be a double major:cool:

Slightly more complicated for the stock market, those companies make real things and pay real dividends.

[Daytr]

Wow, who would have known its simple is that. Gold goes up every 20 years & then crashes. Simple as that huh. Skol the self proclaimed oracle.
There is one major difference between us Sol, I would never make such a claim & if I am wrong, which obviously happens, then I take it on the chin & fess up. Something you should have done when gold went up 70% beyond where you called a bubble & still hasn't got to the level you called it. How long can someone be wrong & not admit it.
What a joke & a complete waste of time. Should have left you on ignore Skol so I can't see your rants.
Well there is always one way to fix that.



True, but I'm right and the so-called 'experts' like Daytr are wrong. Here's the secret to gold. It goes up every 20 years or so when a new generation of suckers stalk the Earth.

Then it crashes and marks time for 20 years. Quite simple, you don't need to be Albert Einstein, all you need to know is that the gold price hinges on 2 things only.

1. Emotion
2. Psychology

You've now passed your degree in gold trading.

Congratulations skid, well done!

[Skol]

Wow, who would have known its simple is that. Gold goes up every 20 years & then crashes. Simple as that huh. Skol the self proclaimed oracle.
There is one major difference between us Sol, I would never make such a claim & if I am wrong, which obviously happens, then I take it on the chin & fess up. Something you should have done when gold went up 70% beyond where you called a bubble & still hasn't got to the level you called it

Actually Daytr I made some, but not a lot of money out of gold on the way up, I can always look up my trading book and let you know, but RDR and RSG ring a bell. Goldbugs have lost Schiffloads on the way down. You might think you're smarter than Ben Bernanke, but I can tell you for sure that you're not, and he says he hasn't a clue what drives the gold price.

But as one of teachers at school in the '60's used to tell the class, 'bullsh*t baffles brains'. lol

[Skol]

Well there is always one way to fix that.

That's right Daytr, switch off. Punters that lose money tend not to look at the other side of the story.

[Skol]

Yep BC gold is reacting nicely to the FED tapering as expected. Hey & what do you know, equities in the US are off. The market is still short covering in gold & I suspect if we see a break of $1270-1300 area there will be more.

Tapering will suck the wind out of equities & gold will benefit, as we have been seeing in 2014.

Could've fooled me, and isn't gold supposed to be on the moon by now with chinese new year today?

I'm sure Daytr has got a scientific, back-tested explanation.

[Bobcat.]

The DJIA and S&P500 are merely moving up to shoulder around 16000 / 8000. Watch them fall thereafter (I'm picking sometime next week). Gold and Silver will then rebound.

[Skol]

Heading back to the $1100's by the end of February is my pick.

[skid]

Actually Daytr I made some, but not a lot of money out of gold on the way up, I can always look up my trading book and let you know, but RDR and RSG ring a bell. Goldbugs have lost Schiffloads on the way down. You might think you're smarter than Ben Bernanke, but I can tell you for sure that you're not, and he says he hasn't a clue what drives the gold price.

But as one of teachers at school in the '60's used to tell the class, 'bullsh*t baffles brains'. lol

What the...... You actually bought and made some money out of gold shares on the way up while at the same time you were ranting and raving about how bad Gold was???

Just when I think Ive heard it all:eek2:

[skid]

Actually Daytr I made some, but not a lot of money out of gold on the way up, I can always look up my trading book and let you know, but RDR and RSG ring a bell. Goldbugs have lost Schiffloads on the way down. You might think you're smarter than Ben Bernanke, but I can tell you for sure that you're not, and he says he hasn't a clue what drives the gold price.

But as one of teachers at school in the '60's used to tell the class, 'bullsh*t baffles brains'. lol


We dont know what Bernanke thinks--only what he wants us to think

[skid]

Slightly more complicated for the stock market, those companies make real things and pay real dividends.

Does'nt Matter--It can still be overvalued

[Bobcat.]

We dont know what Bernanke thinks--only what he wants us to think

I totally agree, skid. He's transparent and accountable not to the general public and not really even to Congress, but rather only to his bankster comrades (Goldman Sachs, Rockefeller, JP Morgan, etc)...who have been creaming it over the past few years...and paid him well to be a mouthpiece for their rhetoric and instrument for market manipulation.

[Skol]

I totally agree, skid. He's transparent and accountable not to the general public and not really even to Congress, but rather only to his bankster comrades (Goldman Sachs, Rockefeller, JP Morgan, etc)...who have been creaming it over the past few years...and paid him well to be a mouthpiece for their rhetoric and instrument for market manipulation.

More conspiracy theories, the lifeblood of the goldbug cult, because that's what it is. A cult, brainwashed suckers getting cleaned out.

[Skol]

What the...... You actually bought and made some money out of gold shares on the way up while at the same time you were ranting and raving about how bad Gold was???

Just when I think Ive heard it all:eek2:

That's right, but not a lot, a few grand, anyone with an ounce of common sense knew it was a bubble, so you don't want to stick with it for long, because you never when it's going to pop.

[Bobcat.]

More conspiracy theories, the lifeblood of the goldbug cult, because that's what it is. A cult, brainwashed suckers getting cleaned out.

Bernanke and his colleagues at the Fed are not Government servants, Skol - they act with authority granted them by congressional mandate but they are more dependent and reliant upon the blessing of their bankster friends than anyone else. Check out the fine print in their constitution.

[Skol]

Bernanke and his colleagues at the Fed are not Government servants, Skol - they act with authority granted them by congressional mandate but they are more dependent and reliant upon the blessing of their bankster friends than anyone else. Check out the fine print in their constitution.

If Bernanke was in the pockets of large US Banks and it was proven it would be scandalous enough to bring down the govt. Goldbugs hate the Fed for some strange reason, they believe that the Fed is engineeering the price of gold, but they couldn't care less about it, the Fed wants to rescue the economy from the recession, avoid deflation and reduce unemployment.

All the gold the US owns would only pay 25% of the US defence budget for one year, it's neither here nor there.

Goldbugs think they're economists, but they're enthusiastic amateurs who think they know something. Unfortunately for many of them, it'll ensure that they end up in a financial bind. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

Have a look at the web, all the way down from $1920 there's gold 'experts' telling us how the 'bottom's in' and smart money is buying gold. lol

[corran]

If Bernanke was in the pockets of large US Banks and it was proven it would be scandalous enough to bring down the govt. Goldbugs hate the Fed for some strange reason, they believe that the Fed is engineeering the price of gold, but they couldn't care less about it, the Fed wants to rescue the economy from the recession, avoid deflation and reduce unemployment.


Skol,

When I read posts like this I'm left wondering if you really believe that or if you're just winding us up.

I suggest you buy some credible books on the history of gold and the fed and try and read them with an open mind.

[Skol]

Skol,

When I read posts like this I'm left wondering if you really believe that or if you're just winding us up.

I suggest you buy some credible books on the history of gold and the fed and try and read them with an open mind.

Like what? Give me some examples, instead of reading these dumb, stupid, impossible, fictitious, idiot, moronic, conspiracy theories.

Conspiracy theories are open-ended, as much as you can prove them wrong, there's always an out for them.

How about this. A while back a goldbug CT told me that condensation trails are 'chemtrails'. They're caused by chemicals in jetfuel to brainwash us all. Being in the aviation industry, I pointed out that such chemicals would block the filters in the engine. The response was that the filters are CIA designed filters.

CT's think they're special because they've inside knowledge the rest of us haven't, it's a psycho problem, there's something going wrong between their ears.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The political scientist Michael Barkun, discussing the usage of this term in contemporary American culture, holds that a conspiracy theory is a belief which explains an event as the result of a secret plot by exceptionally powerful and cunning conspirators to achieve a malevolent end.[6][7] According to Barkun, the appeal of conspiracism is threefold: First, conspiracy theories claim to explain what institutional analysis cannot. They appear to make sense out of a world that is otherwise confusing. Second, they do so in an appealingly simple way, by dividing the world sharply between the forces of light, and the forces of darkness. They trace all evil back to a single source, the conspirators and their agents. Third, conspiracy theories are often presented as special, secret knowledge unknown or unappreciated by others. For conspiracy theorists, the masses are a brainwashed herd, while the conspiracy theorists in the know can congratulate themselves on penetrating the plotters' deceptions.[7]

[corran]

there's no point - whatever I give you that doesn't gel with your main stream view of things you'll dismiss as "dumb, stupid, impossible"...

if you really want to learn, I'm sure you're capable of finding some sources for yourself.

[Skol]

there's no point - whatever I give you that doesn't gel with your main stream view of things you'll dismiss as "dumb, stupid, impossible"...

if you really want to learn, I'm sure you're capable of finding some sources for yourself.

That's right corran, you're ashamed to admit what you're reading here in case you're the object of ridicule.

[Skol]

there's no point - whatever I give you that doesn't gel with your main stream view of things you'll dismiss as "dumb, stupid, impossible"...

if you really want to learn, I'm sure you're capable of finding some sources for yourself.

Let me guess corran, you're favourite author is Glenn Beck, one of the biggest gold scamsters of all time, responsible for losing heaps of people heaps of money, telling them about the great Armageddon that was supposed to have happened years ago. lol

[Daytr]

I don't think the Fed manipulates gold, although they do have a history of fixing the price & confiscation. What the Fed does do is try & protect the dollar as the reserve currency of the world & as such that has a major impact on gold. Big Ben's bad plans are coming unstuck see post below I just put on HC. I actually feel for Ben as he will be the fall guy, however as I have said before I don't think the Fed had much choice due to the inertia of government policy with the Republicans blocking every move Obama has tried to make. I also think Obama needed to take stronger action in regards stimulating the economy & fixing regulatory flaws (read gaping holes). Greenspan imo has much more to blame for what is going on than Bernanke imo. I can't believe we fell for his gobblygoop. I remember seeing a doco on Greenspan & his following of Randism. I think if that was more widely known at the time he may not have had the same credibility. What a joke! I wonder what they will say about poor Benny?

[Daytr]

Post I put on HC bellow.

In 2014 gold is up circa 3% & the DOW for January was down 5.3%, S&P down 3.6% & NASDAQ down 1.7%, marking the worst monthly performance since May 2012.

As I have been saying for some time, bring on the Taper!
The impact of tapering is being felt more in EM countries as this is where a lot of QE liquidity was funneled, following the growth stories.

I wonder how many Americans would like knowing that the great experiment of QE was being used by banks & corporations offshore rather than to actually stimulate the US economy or create jobs in the US.

This EM situation is getting very interesting to say the least. Hungary & Poland are also now creaking, joining the likes of Argentina, South Africa & Turkey.
Who's next? Japan?

As I have said all along, bring on the taper as it will be negative for equity markets & good for gold & its only just started.

[JBmurc]

I agree daytr massive wake up call coming to many ...

[Skol]

Seattle Seahawks will win the Superbowl. 80% chance DJIA will increase by 10%+ in 2014.

[Skol]

Gold's had a good run for a while, but hit the upper channel and gone into reverse.

[corran]

Hi Skol,

So if Gold can break up through that resistance, does that bode well for an upward trend in the gold price?

As I type this Gold is up to approx $1260, what does it need to close at to break the resistance on your chart (I can't read the numbers on the axis).

thanks...

[Skol]

Hi Skol,

So if Gold can break up through that resistance, does that bode well for an upward trend in the gold price?

As I type this Gold is up to approx $1260, what does it need to close at to break the resistance on your chart (I can't read the numbers on the axis).

thanks...

About 1275.

[Daytr]

I see the US ISM was a shocker & DOW off another 1.5% & gold up about the same, the trend for 2014 continues. Only a few weeks ago the inventory managers report showed a large increase & the market anticipated this would translate into greater demand. Well actually, what it means is companies are stuck with higher levels of inventories. Expect this to translate into lower earnings for Q1.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/03/us-markets-global-idUSBRE96S00E20140203

[JBmurc]

I see the US ISM was a shocker & DOW off another 1.5% & gold up about the same, the trend for 2014 continues. Only a few weeks ago the inventory managers report showed a large increase & the market anticipated this would translate into greater demand. Well actually, what it means is companies are stuck with higher levels of inventories. Expect this to translate into lower earnings for Q1.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/03/us-markets-global-idUSBRE96S00E20140203

How about the Nasdaq smashed down -2.6% Nikkei-2.9% .....great to see AUD Gold strong at $1437oz buying more SOC got a large order at 13.5c will take overall interests close to 500k

[Bobcat.]

...great to see AUD Gold strong at $1437oz buying more SOC got a large order at 13.5c will take overall interests close to 500k

Yes, JB - I'm still wondering though whether or not I've missed a red flag with SOC. I have bought three parcels over the past month, expecting its price to lift again on the strength of its forecast reserves and yet it still has more sellers than buyers, taking its price to now the lowest it's been since late June. Do you think that perhaps there is some nervousness re financing its continued exploration?

BC

[Bobcat.]

So if Gold can break up through that resistance, does that bode well for an upward trend in the gold price?

Gold hit the Bears' downward trendline at 1270 last week. Last night on NYMEX it tested it again (at 1267) and given today's sell-off in Equities I expect it will test it again soon. IMO, it will need to break through 1270 and hold for a day or two before we can confirm a bullish breakout. I would say that it's on the cards for sometime this week.

[JBmurc]

Yes, JB - I'm still wondering though whether or not I've missed a red flag with SOC. I have bought three parcels over the past month, expecting its price to lift again on the strength of its forecast reserves and yet there it still has more sellers than buyers, taking its price to now the lowest it's been since late June. Do you think that perhaps there is some nervousness re financing its continued exploration?

BC

With the latest deal financing looks really solid for SOC now, fully funded with $1.5M cash and cash equivalents, the $21M JV spend and another $6M coming in total from ICP deal (12% deal on Gossan Hill (4mill of which when opts are exercised)

One reason why I've thrown major money at a Gold/Sedex explorer is the because of the support shown of late when many others in the sector are going to the wall >>>fact is SOC looks to have a couple of potentially major projects worth mega $$$ now it's only a matter of time till we see if the Geo's are correct....how many more pipes are in the area 3moz looks the downside target

[blackcap]

I went short gold yesterday or was it the day before yesterday (European trading messes with my mind and ability to work out what day it is) at about the 1255 mark. Going to hold on for a bit and see what eventuates.

[Skol]

I went short gold yesterday or was it the day before yesterday (European trading messes with my mind and ability to work out what day it is) at about the 1255 mark. Going to hold on for a bit and see what eventuates.

Technically gold and silver are overdue for a correction.

Just as a matter of interest, who do you trade with?

Thanks

[Skol]

Goldbug Eric Sprott obliterated.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/eric-sprott-crushed-by-fall-in-gold-2013-12

[Bobcat.]

SPDR Gold trust still purchasing. Tonnes of holdings over the past month are:

17th Jan: 789.56
2nd Feb: 793.16
Today: 797.05

Has their strategy flipped? It would appear so. Even the ETF paper traders are now buying up.

Blackcap - I would be putting a stop loss just above the price that you went short at, if I were you. Say around 1257.

[Daytr]

Do you feel the financial system creaking? I certainly do particularly Emerging Markets.
European banks have over 3 trillion of exposure to emerging markets! Ouch!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/04/us-europe-banks-emergingmarkets-idUSBREA130H320140204

Re stops on gold, I think Skol referenced the top of the channel being $1275 & I agree (wow that's almost a 1st!). A break of that should see gold higher or it will get capped there. However to go much lower it also needs to break the down side of the channel otherwise it will just bounce back toward $1270ish again.

Personally to short gold here is like trying to launch at low tide, can be bloody hard & you could be left high & dry. To use another boating metaphor, I think that boat has sailed.

Re SOC, I'll move the conversation to the gold junior thread.

[corran]

About 1275.

Interesting moves on the gold market today. It got just above 1275 then got smashed down to 1257. Currently moving up again (now at 1261)

[Daytr]

Yep I suspect a few shorts were locked in at the upper end of the channel. Pretty typical trading mentality. Likely some will already have taken profit & its also likely some shorts remain & more shorts will nee to cover if $1275 is broken. Just a matter of time with what we are seeing going on in the Emerging Markets imo.


Interesting moves on the gold market today. It got just above 1275 then got smashed down to 1257. Currently moving up again (now at 1261)

[Daytr]

From a report on Bill Gross Head & founder of PIMCO the world's largest bond fund.

"While Gross commented on Pimco's future without El-Erian, he dedicated much of his letter to the state of the U.S. economy, noting that the lower U.S. government deficit is slowing credit growth, which could hurt economic growth and risk assets.

Slower credit growth, Gross said, is negative for the economy in the near term since credit growth is critical to support prices of riskier assets.

"Our PIMCO word of the month is to be 'careful,'" Gross said. "High quality bonds will continue to be well bid and risk assets may lose some luster." "

So what he is in effect saying is that the US Government via the FED has been financing growth in the US by over spending & borrowing money to fill the gap (QE). True the deficit is narrowing & QE is being tapered, however if QE was the only reason the US had growth, hold on to your hat (!) and don't hold onto your shares! Outside of gold producers of course!

[Daytr]

Moosie, what basis do you have when saying gold is looking very toppy? If anything looks like its topped out its the DOW. It should have held support at 16k & then again at 15.75k, both failed. Next major support line is around 14.5k to 14.75k.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI+Interactive#symbol=^dji;range=2y; compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair =on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

[Daytr]

Fair enough Moosie we each have to form a view. Mine obviously differs from yours. What I have liked about gold's performance is that each time it has tested resistance & failed, the selloff has been shallow & it is building higher lows & higher highs. Only last week resistance was around $1268 & now its $1275 not huge but its still higher. Yes gold could fail, however it would need to break downside support to be back in a bearish pattern & it hasn't even tested that for some time. It could re-test the $1180 lows again sure, but again it needs to break those, something it hasn't done in over 6-8 months. If gold was to turn bearish & get slammed this is the week to do it with China out. I expected at the end of January that shorters would come out & do exactly that, as there is a lull in physical demand & the Chinese buyers are on holiday. However two things that are connected & one that's not has put pay to that. 1) Tapering, equity markets have struggled since tapering was announced & gold has benefited some. 2) The Emerging Markets are creaking everywhere you look. This can be connected to QE & now tapering as well. 3) Weak data out of the US probably mostly caused by weather. True this won't last, however it will impact earnings for Q1 so expect the impact to last for some time. Also what impact will tapering have on growth when someone like Bill Gross says its responsible for a fair amount of the US growth to date.

[Bobcat.]

Thursday night rally? If so, 1275USD could well be busted.

[Daytr]

DOW up around 1% & gold basically unchanged, after being up prior to the number & a speech from the ECB. Tomorrow's number no matter what it is, (& I suspect it will be a shocker due to weather), will be dismissed because of the weather, so its hard to know how markets or the FED in regards their tapering program will react.


Nope, jobless claims came in below expectations. Another (smaller) shooting star on the charts. Bulls quickly running out of steam and if tomorrow's job reports comes out better than expected then we can expect a busting of $1250 as bears gain control again. Higher volume suggests traders are taking the opportunity to sell out on peaks. Don't take my word for it though:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hug/2014-02-06-Technical-Market.html

[Hoop]

Moosie has a little bearish TA news ...Daytr is bullish on recent events which positive for Gold..... Colin Twiggs medium term chart (http://goldstocksforex.com/2014/02/06/gold-and-silver-bottom/) (via Email) has bullish news.......Hmmmm let's do some homework..

When something breaks short term you put into prospective with a medium term chart....same with meduim term charts, have a wee look longer term..

As you can see the longer term chart shows a triangle within a larger triangle pattern with both apexs near each both....the breakout is still caged in the larger triangle pattern, that unfortunately dampens ones enthusiasm somewhat about the breakouts (triangle + MA50)...but any recovery has to start with a breakout somewhere ..eh?...so the bulls will be celebrating with this small victory with lots of noise to help carry this momentum on upwards and onwards to better things...

The next hurdle is to break through the top of the resistance zone around the 1250 - 1270 area

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Gold06022014-1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/Gold06022014-1.png.html)

[Daytr]

Cheers Hoop. TA has never been my strong point, but I do value it, mainly because I am aware so much of the market trades that way.

[Skol]

The trend is still down.

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/elliott_wave/gold/2014/02/06/eliottWaves_gold.html

[Bobcat.]

Many .ASX PM digger stocks are rising today: NST, NCM, OGC, PRU, AQG, EVN, TRY, RSG, TGZ, GOR, etc.

Several of these have been sliding this past week and dipped nicely before rising again...through next week?

The usual Friday sell off has not happened (yet).

Even uranium stock PDN, Botswana copper digger DML, and coal digger COX have all again found their legs.

Just luvly.

[Daytr]

Just posted on HC BC that I think tonight is the night for gold to break higher. Currently trading $1262, I think this is the highest we have seen gold trade in Asian time this week. The market I think is still short & will look to cover for the weekend with the threat of another headline from the Emerging Markets & also in the knowledge that China is back next week. If we see $1275-80 break watch out for a short covering spike to $1400ish.

[Daytr]

Or maybe I have just got too excited by watching the cricket! LOL

[Daytr]

Not quite the fireworks I was looking for in gold, however a nice close to the week with gold closing at its highest level in a week. Looks like its poised nicely to take out those resistance levels particularly with the Chinese back in the market.

[Skol]

When the weather picks up, so will the jobs, in the meantime the US economy is a jobs creating machine.
2.1m in 2011
2.2m in 2012
2.3m in 2013.

[skid]

Yup, "weak" data indeed.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-january-jobs-report-20140207,0,5876546.story

However, as the market is a paradox, the Dow and Nasdaq are both up over 1%!

Gold also up and yes Daytr, I think gold may now break $1270. Charting can only tell you so much; it's the announcements which can drive it a direction you weren't expecting.

However, I'd be watching that jobs report next month; retail was laying off after Xmas but manufactuting was well up...

Not always a paradox Moosie--Sometimes the big players can actually make more money by cutting local jobs and outsourcing.
Also no one seems to think about the quality of work out there--Are things really better if heaps of people are working at Walmarts instead of the Ford assembly plant.
Those things are hard to quantify,except in the general mood of the (shrinking?) middle class. Spending is one way,although they may be just maxing out their credit cards even more.
It would be interesting to see just what they are manufacturing these days(may be up ,but it sure aint what it used to be)
We will certainly know better as QE bites.
Not so sure i agree with our (American?)friend Skol,but time will tell.

[skid]

Interesting comments at the bottom of the Chicago tribune article posted..

[corran]

gold is now less than $2 away from getting through $1275.

will it or won't it today......

Skol - will you turn to being bullish on gold if that resistance is breached?

[JBmurc]

gold is now less than $2 away from getting through $1275.

will it or won't it today......

Skol - will you turn to being bullish on gold if that resistance is breached?

Skol Bullish LOL he's a perma BEAR doesn't matter if it breaks to all time highs it will still be overvalued in his eyes.....

Gold currently broken through 1275.50 currently...

Hey HOOP be great to see your Chart in AUD Gold (esp as Aussie is the third biggest Gold producer in the world)

[Skol]

gold is now less than $2 away from getting through $1275.

will it or won't it today......

Skol - will you turn to being bullish on gold if that resistance is breached?

No because it'll probably be a bull trap, there's been one before. Why would I want to own something that has no dividend?

[tosspot]

No because it'll probably be a bull trap, there's been one before. Why would I want to own something that has no dividend?
Because there are many other people willing to own it and pay more for it, not sure if your ignorant or just a super pessimist but its pretty clear gold is in a short term uptrend and obviously depending on short term future macro events should go higher.

[Skol]

Because there are many other people willing to own it and pay more for it, not sure if your ignorant or just a super pessimist but its pretty clear gold is in a short term uptrend and obviously depending on short term future macro events should go higher.

Yeah, you're right, millions of unsophisticated chinese peasants can't possibly be wrong.

[Daytr]

I just posted this on HC & thought worth posting here for your consideration.

There seems to be a strong force in play protecting this $1275-80 area in gold. Timber (of HC) mentioned in a previous post that there may be a large option position in play that is being protected & I think he may well be on to something.

Option expiry for COMEX is tomorrow & it suggests to me this would be the expiry date as it would be too difficult to protect an option that had another or several months to run. However if its only for a few days & the position is big enough, its probably worth throwing ammo at to protect the strike price.

So if this theory is correct we should see the pressure released off gold as the option expires from memory at 9.30am NY time tomorrow.

[clip]

1275 broken

[Bobcat.]

Yes, a nice spike to 1285 USD. Now just about everyone will be bullish on Gold...except for Skol of course.

Skol - did you buy TRY when I recommended it to you at 75c? You never replied.

[Skol]

Yes, a nice spike to 1285 USD. Now just about everyone will be bullish on Gold...except for Skol of course.

Skol - did you buy TRY when I recommended it to you at 75c? You never replied.

No I didn't, I have enough exposure to precious metals and natural resources through the BT Natural Resources fund, but very well done, good profit for you there. Gold is sitting at the top of a bearish price channel, it's more than likely going downwards. After Janet Yellen's had her fireside chat reality might set in.

I bought some QBE instead.

[JBmurc]

Yes, a nice spike to 1285 USD. Now just about everyone will be bullish on Gold...except for Skol of course.

Skol - did you buy TRY when I recommended it to you at 75c? You never replied.

Yes TRY been bit like skol pic of 747 near 100% move north since skol was bagging the stock lol

[Skol]

Yes TRY been bit like skol pic of 747 near 100% move north since skol was bagging the stock lol

I don't recall bagging it. Did you buy it, or are you just big noting?

[corran]

from a month or two back...




TRY looks deader than a dead dingos donger, but thanks for the offer.

[Skol]

from a month or two back...

Hardly bagging it, is it? And I did say 'thank you'. I bought QBE for $10.57 instead.

Looks like the goldbug prediction of a rout in stocks is all hot air, gold going down, DJIA up.

[JBmurc]

Gold booming higher 1290 .. Has that gold short treating you blackcap
Be yet another big day for PM stocks

[corran]

What an exciting day to be following gold.... first up, then took a pretty bit hit when Yellen said tapering would continue, now I arrive home to find it's shot up again.

[Skol]

You might think that astrology's a bit looney to predict the stockmarket, but this guy's often right. Occasionally he issues a free newsletter and one at the end of January predicted the S&P500 will be 2000 by the end of March.
I've made an entry in my diary to check it, and if he's right this time, the stockmarket will be up 10% in the next 6 weeks.

www.mahendraprophecy.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In this years book we mentioned that January 2014 would remain mixed, and so far the USA
market has remained in a mixed direction. This is a great time to acquire quality stocks so
don’t miss this opportunity to acquire stocks on weakness. This week is the Fed meeting so
get ready to pick up stocks on any weakness on Wednesday and early Thursday. Once again
we would like to remind you that S&P is ready to cross 2000 in the first quarter.

[Skol]

Tsk tsk skol shouldn't be dipping to the goldbugs level, they will beat you with experience!

Gold up 1.15% and testing $1290 resistance again. Pushing above $1300 would be big for the mtal on a psychological level. Upper uptrend channel line around $1308.

I'll put up here at the end of the quarter whether Mahendra was right, in the meantime the goldbug prediction that the stockmarket would crash is coming to nothing, in fact on CNBC the other day, one commentator said a lot of people had lost a lot of money, expecting a severe correction that hadn't eventuated and some had made it worse by shorting the stockmarket.

Buying actual gold is still a waste of time though because of the premiums, but a lot of them are the Armageddon cranks, if you want to buy gold the easiest and cheapest way is via an ETF.

[Skol]

dont have to look to far for the most failed and loudest prediction on this thread eh skol.
How long have you been banging the doom and gloom drum for the gold price now is it 4 or 5 years.

:D

And I've been right. Compare gold with stocks and property and even menial term deposits and you can see who's right.

And if the stockmarket continues upwards, punters will more than likely rotate out of a useless metal into stocks that actually do something.

Gold hasn't broken out of its bearish price channel, but stick with it, it might, but I doubt it. Millions of unsophisticated chinese peasants are praying that it will.

For the last 5 years.

[tosspot]

Does this website have an ignore function for this pessimist skol, you sound way to emotionally involved with gold, did it hurt you in the past or something.

[Bobcat.]

...On CNBC the other day, one commentator said a lot of people had lost a lot of money, expecting a severe correction that hadn't eventuated and some had made it worse by shorting the stockmarket.


Have you never heard of a technical head and shoulder pattern, Skol? US Equity markets are lifting to a shoulder (~16100 on the DJIA and 1825 on the S&P500). IMO it will drop away again before the week is out. I will put money on it that the correction is not over. Trading accordingly.

BC

[Daytr]

It was only yesterday we were talking about $1275 resistance & today gold is lining up $1300. Quite an incredible performance.

Interestingly both gold & the stock markets rallied on Yellen's testimony, which basically said steady as she goes re tapering.

Two things re the market reaction. The market would have been looking for any sign that the Fed may halt its tapering policy & if they had it would have been a clear indication that the Fed considered the US economy not strong enough to handle the stimulus withdrawal. Equities knee jerk reaction was to rally. I.e there was nothing bad or unexpected mentioned. However & this is just a view, we will see the reality kick in tomorrow, that more stimulus is being removed & equity markets will resume their downward trajectory. Earnings season has come in with something like 67% of companies reporting earnings above expectation on the S&P which is above the 61% average. (how bad are these analysts!) However due to weather I suspect Q1 2014 earnings will be significantly off for many companies & markets will start to factor that in as well as the massive rise in inventories that was reported recently & the strain on balance sheets that will create. (sorry that's more than 2 things...)

If you look at a chart gold appears to have broken its long term down trend from $1800. This potentially is massive for the outlook of the POG as a majority of the market & big hitters like hedgefunds & banks trade technically. The technical traders will be taking notice of gold's performance. Next resistance is obviously $1300 area, but major resistance for me is $1360 & then $1420.

On a side note, I see Bitcoin plunged again yesterday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/11/us-investing-bitcoin-idUSBREA191Y220140211

[skid]

Hardly bagging it, is it? And I did say 'thank you'. I bought QBE for $10.57 instead.

Looks like the goldbug prediction of a rout in stocks is all hot air, gold going down, DJIA up.

Skol, your as slippery as an eel :)

[skid]

Hardly bagging it, is it? And I did say 'thank you'. I bought QBE for $10.57 instead.

Looks like the goldbug prediction of a rout in stocks is all hot air, gold going down, DJIA up.

Your not paying attention to you own Bubble theory Skol--Give the share market time--nothing is certain but most are starting to take notice that it is overbought.

[skid]

Hardly bagging it, is it? And I did say 'thank you'. I bought QBE for $10.57 instead.

Looks like the goldbug prediction of a rout in stocks is all hot air, gold going down, DJIA up.

Your not paying attention to you own Bubble theory Skol--Give the share market time--nothing is certain but most are starting to take notice that it is overbought.

[Daytr]

Skid, I smoke eels! LOL


Skol, your as slippery as an eel :)

[Skol]

Does this website have an ignore function for this pessimist skol, you sound way to emotionally involved with gold, did it hurt you in the past or something.

Tosspot,

Yes it does have an ignore function, a few have me on ignore, they don't like hearing the truth, but it's a fact that some of the worst investors on Earth are the ones that ony read what they want to read.

[Skol]

Your not paying attention to you own Bubble theory Skol--Give the share market time--nothing is certain but most are starting to take notice that it is overbought.

Check this out. Gold's a good 'investment'.lol
Only if you're blind.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101408290

[Bobcat.]

Check this out. Gold's a good 'investment'.lol
Only if you're blind.

Gold has been a very good investment (or rather investing in gold diggers has been) both at the end of June 2013 and again mid-December 2013.

If you'd bought PM stocks at both points and sold within two months, you would've doubled your money - twice!

Where does your S&P500 demonstrate a 200% ROI, Skol?

[Bobcat.]

AUD/USD rising to 90c yesterday is not helping PM diggers maintain this week's run to their share prices. After lifting at market open today, most are drifting down.

A few exceptions: AZS announced some good drilling results (up 4%), CHN rising above previous resistance to trade at 15.5c (up 7%) and OZL's financial report was much better than expected (up 11%).

[Daytr]

I don't think the AUD's strength will last too long BC. I'm still looking for low 80s or even higher 70s in the AUD over time. Imagine that if we also have a gold price recovery! Two things to like about the Aussies, 1) their currency is going to weaken further. 2) the Wallabies being the easy beats in world rugby, well at least where the ABs are concerned ! :p

[Bobcat.]

I don't think the AUD's strength will last too long BC. I'm still looking for low 80s or even higher 70s in the AUD over time. Imagine that if we also have a gold price recovery! Two things to like about the Aussies, 1) their currency is going to weaken further. 2) the Wallabies being the easy beats in world rugby, well at least where the ABs are concerned ! :p

Most currencies rise against the USD when Equity markets are bullish. With last week's correction, the USD strengthened, and I expect that the correction is not over (a shoulder is forming), meaning that the AUD/USD is likely to weaken soon...which is good for exporters, including gold diggers.

EVN has fallen away since this morning's high of 85c, likewise NCM (which has had a stellar run this past month) and many other Aussie mining stocks. I see a nice dip coming up for these two: I'm guessing EVN @ ~ 70c and NCM @ ~ 1025c.

Trading to it.

Meanwhile SOC has shown signs of recovery - me thinks that the seller has had a change of mind.

[Skol]

Gold has been a very good investment (or rather investing in gold diggers has been) both at the end of June 2013 and again mid-December 2013.

If you'd bought PM stocks at both points and sold within two months, you would've doubled your money - twice!

Where does your S&P500 demonstrate a 200% ROI, Skol?

Yes quite true, and if you can make money I applaud you, but long term gold isn't a good bet, I think gold will fall while stockmarkets will continue up.

If you compare gold with the S&P Total Return Index (incls divs), gold gets really hammered.

[Daytr]

And so the quality of the thread deteriorates yet again. When will people learn to use the ignore button. Seriously turns me off!

[Skol]

please spare me, I could spend all day bring up charts in a chosen time period to support gold.

Skol you were talking about a 5 period and your chart indicated that gold had been a good investment.
Now that your own charts dont support your thoery you adjust to a 2 year chart.

I put up a 5 year chart of gold vs S&P that showed the S&P tripled gold's return, and that doesn't include dividends.

[Skol]

And so the quality of the thread deteriorates yet again. When will people learn to use the ignore button. Seriously turns me off!

Daytr says he's got me on ignore, but he obviously hasn't. I think you guys should do business with Daytr, he makes 100% return in 3 months, the same as Charles Ponzi.

[Skol]

I hope you feel special Skol I just found out how to use the ignore list and you are about to be the first and only one on it.

Yeah, I think you should if it makes you feel better, then you'll only read good things, not bad things.

If your psyche is unable to handle a contrarian view it's a very good decision.

[Daytr]

Meanwhile, back in the real world, it appears there has been some profit taking in both gold & gold miners today. Gold needs to hold $1275-80 area tonight to prove this wasn't a false break. I suspect we may see $1275 tested but if holds should then crack higher again. I think a lot will depend on how the US equity markets perform tonight. I am expecting them to resume the recent down trend, but I could be wrong obviously. I have been pretty happy with RSG's performance being up most of the day when quite a few miners are down & its looking like closing flat give or take. I still think relative to its peers its about 25% under valued.

[Daytr]

Gold has done well again overnight, equity markets in the US not so much basically flat other than the NASDAQ up 0.33%. Yesterday next resistance lines were mentioned & there is a key one I missed being $1307/08 area which is the 200 day moving average (DMA) & also a retracement level.
So not only is there the barrier of $1300, but that as well to consider.

For those interested in the 'level' playing field of the banks, you may find this article interesting & basically outlines Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley's unfair advantage over others in commodity markets. No mention of a JP Morgan in sight by the way.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/12/us-fed-banks-commodities-analysis-idUSBREA1B09720140212http://hotcopper.com.au/images/share.gif (http://hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&msgid=12947431&v=300&pubid=ra-5204535253dfaa05)

[Daytr]

Thanks Moosie that's really quite interesting. I had been hearing & seeing a lot of chatter re a repeat of 1929, but not being a doom/gloom merchant was fairly dismissive. Its the first time I have seen a chart of it & you are right the parallel is quite scary. I have been saying for some time that I thought the US equity markets were in a bubble propped up by QE & with tapering, equity markets would falter & gold correspondingly do well & this seems to be playing out right now. I will certainly keep an eye on that level of 1762 in the S&P.


Here's a nice scary chart for everyone to freak out about :)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11

[Bobcat.]

$1300 very close now. US looks to be getting a bit skittish now. BC, that head and shoulders pattern is nearly formed now. Scary!

Might start holding cash to see what plays out...

Yes, I've gone from 95% loaded to now just 70% (i.e. 30% cashed up) with most of my stocks (80%) now in PM diggers or explorers.

Hold on to your seats, investors; get ready for some volatility, traders - 2013's boom is about to be followed by a 2014 bust.

Hear that rumbling? It's a stampede of bears coming, and they are getting o' so near.

BC

[Skol]

XJO vs Gold for 2 years. 50% difference.

[Skol]

Here's a nice scary chart for everyone to freak out about :)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11

The excesses of the 1920's are nothing like the presesnt recovery from a severe recession. If the recovery proceeds as I expect, stockmarkets will continue their climb and gold will continue its decline.

[Daytr]

Aussie unemployment numbers out, much weaker than consensus. Aussie down as a result. :-)
Copy & paste from NAB below.

On the below headlines AUD quickly from 0.9025 to 0.8950, back into the recent range, next support level is 0.8930 (mild), but there are stops looming below 0.8900 which I think will be triggered inside the next 24 hours

JANUARY EMPLOYMENT -3,700 (CONCENSUS +15,000)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 6.0 (CONC 5.9)

[Daytr]

This just in from Bank of America (BOA) seems they are cautious as well. I have generally found BOA one of the better predictors for the POG.
Precious Metals: Gold continues to trade firm, trading shy of 1300 again. Two things are rather noticeable to us at the moment: firstly, dips are generally rather shallow and market is trading very well. And secondly, suddenly everyone is bullish on the highs. You could argue that point 2 is explained by point 1, but some things do not add up. Generally risk is bid, treasury rates are climbing and gold is also bid, which is very counter-intuitive. We are therefore wary of being overtly bullish up here and would even suggest that we are approaching a sell zone (1290-1310). The big test for the bulls will be a test of 1270 – if that gives way, then we have underlined our range trading environment.

Vols had a firm tone on Tuesday but after failing to push higher to the 200DMA at 1306, vols now are sagging. Even the recent darling options, 1300-1325 strikes out to 3M, are now under pressure. Has supply entered the market or is the market losing faith in the gold rally? We haven’t seen the sellers, but with stocks rallying and 10Y yields 15bps off the lows, it’s hard to stay bullish gold. Front-end RR’s are the cheapest they’ve been in over six months (just 1.65 for puts in the 1M)… so if you do fancy dipping a toe in and buying some puts, the timing is near perfect (spot on the highs, vols selling off, RR’s cheap).

Key support levels (XAU): $1,253 / $1,235/ $1,210
Key resistance levels (XAU): $1,300 /$1,326 / $1,350

[Daytr]

Wow, gold is very strong, any dip is very shallow & it just keeps trucking higher. Yep $1307/08 is a key area, 200 DMA. Also see $1320 & then $1360 as resistance above that. The way gold is moving I'm wondering if I should just throw the technical out the window as gold appears to have a momentum of its own at the moment. Anyone following most of the bank's predictions for the last 6 months or so will be scratching their heads.

[Daytr]

Yeah mine to. The good thing is that if perhaps gold does fail $1307 area & pulls back it now has plenty of room before hitting support of $1275. If it had fell from $1285/90 area I think there is a good chance $125 could have failed. Now I think if it pulls back there is a good chance of that area holding & creating another buy opportunity.

[Hoop]

Update from 7th Feb 2014 #6684 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7449-Gold/page446)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Gold13022014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/Gold13022014.png.html)

[Daytr]

Thanks Hoop. What's your interpretation of the descending triangle? i.e. what does it typically predict as an outcome?

[JBmurc]

Recent Double bottom bring on the break above 1420 ^^^^ been a healthy breather for 2013 going back to higher close Year on Year for another decade

[JBmurc]

$1420? it just barely broke $1300! Easy there tiger, one step at a time!

Yes very early call but thats what we need to see Gold back on track I believe it will happen this year..rather than the current trading range

[Hoop]

Thanks Hoop. What's your interpretation of the descending triangle? i.e. what does it typically predict as an outcome?

I think it has to be classed as a symmetrical shape the way I drew it, Daytr...It can be drawn with a minor bottom line that resembles a descending triangle a little...Be interesting to see what a pattern generator would throw up....Its a pain when somethings ain't black or white in real life ...eh

The yellow pattern is the fuzzy definition between triangle and a wedge,,strictly speaking I probably should be calling this a falling wedge as the apex is down pointing.. but the time period is too long to call it a typical wedge....but the pattern shape is far more important and it has got that falling wedge shape ..that upward breakout situated well before the apex shows a good possibility that this breakout is a trend reversal and (falling wedge pattern within the guidelines) has a 60% chance now of reaching 1650 ( height of the falling wedge top formation) (Bulkowski).

Technically speaking the Pink triangle is a "weak" triangle pattern as it doesn't satisfy the triangle pattern guidelines** ...even though the bottom line is well and truly a confirmed line it has only one touch within its designated confirmed triangle area... so can't apply the % historic bullish outcomes associated with those guideline asymmetrical patterns ..
** to much "air" (area between top & bottom touches) inside the "triangle" area...and..not enough bottom touches (need min of 2)..

Many articles has these types of diagrams and describe them as symmetrical triangles ..this one by me is no different.


But.... I had to call it something..it looks like a symmetrical triangle especially after I draw the top reversal line in..so I called it a "triangle"

.....maybe calling it an area within two major converging trend lines, one a bull line the other a bear line... would've been more technically correct

Anyway there's a bull/bear battle going on and as these 2 trend lines come towards their definite outcome, only one line will survive the other will be broken...

So who will be the winner???... going back to the triangles wedges whatever, the breakout outcome of the yellow falling wedge suggests the probability will favour the bull line (the long term primary up trend line) as the winner...therefore that winner will be another confirmation of the trend reversal

phew!!!.... that was a long winded explanation....serves me right for being lazy and calling everything triangles to start with...eh?

[Daytr]

Much appreciated & great post Hoops.
I follow technicals as most of the market trades that way, but its never been a strength of mine.
If I combine with what you suggest & what I see as the fundamental picture, i.e. physical demand, it does make me very bullish over time.
However nothing goes up or down in a straight line.
I do like the ring of $1650 which was a very big number on the way down. Really the straw that broke the camel's back.

[JBmurc]

$1420? it just barely broke $1300! Easy there tiger, one step at a time!

1320^^^^ toot toot

So many shorters will be getting wiped out of late ...can see now why the likes of JP Morgan were
Closing out their shorts positions and taking on major longs back in the low 1200s yet telling the market gold would head lower likely the same for many of the major bullion banks tell the market one thing but do the dead opposite

the largest gold producer on the planet, Barrick just released its Q4 2013 results showing “All-in costs” for mining gold at $1,317 an ounce....

China breaks gold import record for Jan up 43% to 247 tons more than the month global gold production

Skol where's you ETF update LOL

[Daytr]

Yep that $1307/08 area proved big but eclipsed on first attempt. There must have been quite a few stops there or long positions being out on as it rocketed to $1320 & closing on or around the highs. Undeniably strong performance in POG since the start of the year.

Now, will Goldman's make a backflip? They have been very strong on their call for gold to go to $1000. If they do backflip then I think that will be the 3rd time in about 6 months. They will have lost all direction one would have thought! Nice weekend all!

[JBmurc]

Yep that $1307/08 area proved big but eclipsed on first attempt. There must have been quite a few stops there or long positions being out on as it rocketed to $1320 & closing on or around the highs. Undeniably strong performance in POG since the start of the year.

Now, will Goldman's make a backflip? They have been very strong on their call for gold to go to $1000. If they do backflip then I think that will be the 3rd time in about 6 months. They will have lost all direction one would have thought! Nice weekend all!


Yes like "Morgan Stanley Predicts Gold to Hit $2,200 in 2012... Maybe as High as $2,464" this was put out round the start of the biggest Gold correction in decades from Jan 2012...

then from round a month ago "doom gloom for PM"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-22/gold-target-cut-by-morgan-stanley-seeing-more-pain-to-come-.html


Basically do the dead opposite of what Wall street are telling you and you will do well....

[Skol]

Skol where's you ETF update LOL

I'm on the West Coast checking out the soup kitchens, but can't seem to find any. Stood in a line for 15 mins trying to buy some chocolates, everything's motoring along just fine, Armageddon doesn't appear imminent, so out of gold and stocks, I know which one's out of kilter.
NASDAQ at 13.5 year high and you're sitting on 1500 oz of corroding silver.

[Daytr]

You invited him back JB! The quality, the quality...

[JBmurc]

You invited him back JB! The quality, the quality...

Yeah still he's a man of his word(bet wise) and I do look forward to winning my $100 bet on Silver 2014 looking good so far up round 10% of the start of the year price ...



Skol the silver doesn't corrode in our Safe >>wish I still did hold 1500 closer to 1100oz now .... would love to be buying more at current prices

[Skol]

Yeah still he's a man of his word(bet wise) and I do look forward to winning my $100 bet on Silver 2014 looking good so far up round 10% of the start of the year price ...



Skol the silver doesn't corrode in our Safe >>wish I still did hold 1500 closer to 1100oz now .... would love to be buying more at current prices

I'll win this year the same as I beat you every year in the annual Sharetrader stockpicking competition.

[JBmurc]

I'll win this year the same as I beat you every year in the annual Sharetrader stockpicking competition.

Geez now thats some big Talk how many comps have you been in two three ?? ....as we know this is are 5th year Bet on PM prices year close to year close only 2013 were you right ,,(As I took a massive call on Silver closing higher than $50 2012)

some of my old Comp results
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
9.9% 78.9% 50.1% -69% ? -3.9% -35% -20.81% -13.5%


Need a big turn round for 2014 comp which going from my picks is looking good

[Skol]

Geez now thats some big Talk

You might be waiting a long time for your financial apocalypse. San Francisco's really humming, I've just been for a walk to the US Mint building on the off chance they'd let me in, but no luck, I'll try the Old Mint tomorrow to see what's there.

Should unload your remaining silver while the price is up.

When everyone works out that the cold weather's responsible for the slowing US economy gold and silver will plunge.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-manufacturing-output-tumbles-cold-142028194.html

[Skol]

From Bloomberg today:
-------------------------
This year’s rebound hasn’t deterred analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., who on Feb. 12 restated a forecast for lower prices. The metal will drop to $1,050 by the end of the year, analysts led by Jeffrey Currie said in a report, citing expectations for improving U.S. growth. Barclays Plc sees prices averaging $1,150 in the second quarter and expects the rally to “flounder,” the bank said in a report yesterday.

[peat]

5487
Not only the last word every single time but a double post... Jeez Skol... you could at least go a bit quiet during the gold rallies.
Or, more succinctly STFU you grumpy old c*nt

[digger]

From Bloomberg today:
-------------------------
This year’s rebound hasn’t deterred analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., who on Feb. 12 restated a forecast for lower prices. The metal will drop to $1,050 by the end of the year, analysts led by Jeffrey Currie said in a report, citing expectations for improving U.S. growth. Barclays Plc sees prices averaging $1,150 in the second quarter and expects the rally to “flounder,” the bank said in a report yesterday.

That means that Goldman Sachs wants to buy up big and please everyone else sell to them.
So is 1320 both a support and a resistance. Way last April 13 gold in its big fall sat at or near 1320 and on several occasions come back to that level. Just interesting.

[JBmurc]

You might be waiting a long time for your financial apocalypse. San Francisco's really humming, I've just been for a walk to the US Mint building on the off chance they'd let me in, but no luck, I'll try the Old Mint tomorrow to see what's there.

Should unload your remaining silver while the price is up.

When everyone works out that the cold weather's responsible for the slowing US economy gold and silver will plunge.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-manufacturing-output-tumbles-cold-142028194.html

Gold/silver has shown time in time again to do well even when the likes of the US markets are doing well just look at 04-07

[Daytr]

As I keep telling people, gold is not a US story (well it is some) but an Asian & developing countries story. This is where investment money has been going, sometimes foolishly, but this is where the average wealth of citizen is growing rapidly & where there are a LOT of citizens. China, India, Russia, Mid East, the rest of Asia & most of South America are all buying gold. As one poster said on HC if you want to simplify the argument for gold its this; "its a pure demand story".

[Skol]

Gold/silver has shown time in time again to do well even when the likes of the US markets are doing well just look at 04-07

Gold has never beaten stocks in the last 5 years except for the last month, the S&P has thrashed gold every time.
3m, 6m, 1 year, 2 years and 5 years.

Gold and stocks rallying at the same time, someone's got it wrong. Couldn't possibly be millions of naive, unsophisticated chinese peasants could it? No way! lol

[JBmurc]

Gold has never beaten stocks in the last 5 years except for the last month, the S&P has thrashed gold every time.
3m, 6m, 1 year, 2 years and 5 years.

Gold and stocks rallying at the same time, someone's got it wrong. Couldn't possibly be millions of naive, unsophisticated chinese peasants could it? No way! lol


Well as usual you aren,t talking within the context ...you have stated time n time again GOLD/Silver is a doomsday metal working inverse to the markets yet looking at the last 12yr chart shows Gold to have done well up to the GFC then consulate before moving higher along with the markets ,,then since operation twist 2012 there has be a disconnect between the physical market (huge demand) and the paper traded price which has seen record amounts of Naked shorting ...At present the tide looks to be turning more Bullish to the paper price

[Daytr]

I blame you entirely JB! I think you know what I mean...

[Skol]

JB,

The price of SPDR GLD and the real thing is one and the same, perhaps you could provide some evidence of this 'disconnect' and the 'naked shorting', which is goldbug lingo for 'manipulation', the eternal Zerohedge whinging.

The gold price has declined because punters have finally worked out that the economic cataclysm isn't going to happen, it never was, all through the GFC life has proceeded pretty much as normal unless you got caught with lots of debt and/or shonky assets.

It's not brain surgery as much as Daytr would have us believe it is.

The GFC was always going to happen, you didn't need to be Albert Einstein to see that one coming, the latest Barron's postulates that the US economy is about to go on a tear.

As the Moose says, 'history repeats itself'. It sure does and that's why gold will more than likely be a lousy bet for years to come.

People with university degrees are often unable to separate the wheat from the chaff, that's why there's so many lawyers, accountants and bankers in jail.

[JBmurc]

GOLD Shorters getting smashed ....1330oz massive spike ...burn baby burn

[JBmurc]

-Alasdair Macleod-
There is a developing problem in the market which is underwriting precious metal prices. We know physical supplies are tight, with record demand in Shanghai (256 tonnes delivered in January) and London’s GOFO rate has turned negative again out to three months. The shortage of physical bullion and the better price trend are happening with a high level of short positions for the trend-chasers who are generally committed to a continuing bear market. The charts below are short positions of the Managed Money (hedge funds)

5493

The historic average of gold short positions is normally less than 15,000 contracts, whereas at the beginning of this month it stood at 63,755 contracts.

[Skol]

There's no shortage of gold, there's plenty in the ETF's, 800 tonnes in GLD alone, as the price rises you'll see heaps more emerge from the woodwork, high prices solve lots of problems.

There's nothing illegal or 'manipulative' about shorting gold.

[Daytr]

Nice post JB. There certainly are some fairly 'stubborn' views out there. They will either be right & if so means gold would have to drop over 10% just to get to the $1180 double bottom major support. Or they are horribly wrong & it not only costs them a bomb & it also propels gold much higher as these positions are covered. Its hard to deny the latter outcome based on the current performance of gold.

[Skol]

The Singapore Airshow eaked out $32 billion in aircraft orders and the Dubai Airshow 3 months ago $206 billion. Boeing says asian airlines will require 12,820 jets in the next 20 years.

When did you say the economic apocalypse was happening JB?

[JBmurc]

The Singapore Airshow eaked out $32 billion in aircraft orders and the Dubai Airshow 3 months ago $206 billion. Boeing says asian airlines will require 12,820 jets in the next 20 years.

When did you say the economic apocalypse was happening JB?

Can't say I can recall saying there's a economic apocalypse coming ? currency crisis yes economic woes yes could well be if the debt to income issues aren't sorted

[Skol]

Here's what Barron's say:
---------------------
Snow paralyzed the Eastern U.S. last week, but it won't put a chill on what could be the hottest economy since the late 1990s.
--------------------

[Daytr]

Hi Moosie, in my view having both going up in tandem doesn't equate to differing views on tapering in the market. One day the market will learn, its not all about the US. The US of course will be the last to learn this. There has been chatter that tapering may be eased, however there has been no indication from the Fed that this will be the case & in fact I am of the opinion that the Fed knows they have to do away with QE full stop. Equity markets are rallying as the weak data is being dismissed due to the weather. This is a fair assessment, although what I would say is that equities were struggling well before the severe weather hit & its likely severe weather patterns will become regular events. The market is also dismissing what is going on in Emerging Markets & Europe. Everything is alright Jake! Well it certainly isn't. I did see that Russia is looking to buy 2Bln of Ukrainian bonds & this is a positive, as one would have thought there will be more of the same from the likes of China. As the US pulls the liquidity plug, up steps Russia & perhaps China. Gold continues to rally because it has broken through technical levels. ETF selling at this point appears exhausted (about a month or two ahead of what I forecast). Shorts have had to cover. Gold is probably due for a pull back to $1300ish or perhaps even $1280, however imo this will represent opportunity. I don't think equity markets will stay in step with gold for long & I suspect have about run their course. The S&P has a major resistance level at 1850 & if fails one could argue it has formed a triple top. The DOW is trailing some 350 points off a similar resistance point. Obviously if the indices convincingly break these levels then it is game on.


Bit worried that gold and the market are trading in tandem upwards again. This suggests traders think QE will be levelled off/upped in this environment. I think this is ill founded logic based on two weak months of US reporting and that if it is true, there may be a bit of a shock when Yellen says tapering will continue as planned!

[Daytr]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/15/us-usa-stocks-weekahead-idUSBREA1E03S20140215

Everyday I am reading about pipe dreams in regards the US equity markets. Dismissing soft data, EM is all ok, & Europe is picking up. Read this & now its the Fed that will bail out the markets. Bail them out from what?: Raching all time highs?! Brokers & banks rely on volume as that's how they earn their fees. They will say anything to suck in more money & spin a positive. Clutching at straws or perhaps thin HOT air comes to mind. The Fed will not taper the taper just so equity markets can keep on booming to ridiculous levels considering the economic backdrop.

[Bobcat.]

Bubbles are renown for generating a lot of hot air. When it comes on thick and thin like it's starting to now, you can bet your bottom dollar on there being a major correction just around the corner. Sometime this month, IMO.

[Skol]

Barclays say the gold rally will be short lived, so do Morgan Stanley and GS.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-12/gold-drops-from-three-month-high-as-rally-hurts-physical-demand.html

http://www.bnamericas.com/news/metals/gold-price-rally-will-be-short-lived-barclays

The US equity markets aren't in a bubble, this is a bubble:

[Bobcat.]

Ah, the love of money can distort the truth, within even the largest and wealthiest of opinions.

[JBmurc]

Barclays say the gold rally will be short lived, so do Morgan Stanley and GS.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-12/gold-drops-from-three-month-high-as-rally-hurts-physical-demand.html

http://www.bnamericas.com/news/metals/gold-price-rally-will-be-short-lived-barclays

The US equity markets aren't in a bubble, this is a bubble:


Well if it even was in a bubble it's not anymore the chart shows clearly it's in a trading range 1420-1200 IMHO it's going back to the 1550-1800 range in time

[Bobcat.]

Well if it even was in a bubble it's not anymore the chart shows clearly it's in a trading range 1420-1200 IMHO it's going back to the 1550-1800 range in time

I was referring to the bubble forming in Equities - particularly those indexed in the DJIA, S&P500 and NASDAQ.

Gold is now in need of a slight correction IMO, and so as of lunchtime today I'm 80% cashed up, and ready to come in on a dip (late Thursday?)

BC

[peat]

I took a little of my sub $20 silver off the table....

This is a 3 hour chart so very short time frame for PM, but coming off extremely overbought situation here as shown with RSI(14)

5504

[Daytr]

Yeah miners have generally turned negative today o0n profit taking both in gold & stocks.
Gold may well take a breather here, its certainly overdue imo.

[Skol]

Yeah miners have generally turned negative today o0n profit taking both in gold & stocks.
Gold may well take a breather here, its certainly overdue imo.

Yes, Daytr says:
----------------------
Hopefully you find my posts helpful, but in no way should they be construed as advice. Make your own decision.
----------------------

Extremely good advice, it might go up or it might go down. daytr likes a bet both ways.

[corran]

"But a key 2008 leg is not in play - the perception that the financial system is on the verge of imploding"


That perception could change very rapidly Moosie. I think it's pushing it to think the structural problems that caused the 2008 crisis have been resolved. More debt has been thrown at the issue and the central banks have been very successful at keeping things going but it's going to be interesting to see how long that situation lasts. I reckon not long.

[Daytr]

Gold performed admirably overnight with a reasonably hard sell off met by support to only close down around 0.35%. You would expect gold to still test lower, at least $1309 area (200 DMA), however in 2014, each sell off has been very shallow & gold has rebounded to post higher highs & perhaps we will see the same here. US Equity markets other than the NASDAQ, were pretty flat with the S&P within a stone's throw of all time highs. Data out of Europe & the US was soft to say the least & Japan kept the stimulus pump at capacity inflating the Nikkei by over 3%. I suspect we are now at the turning point for the US equity markets with the S&P unlikely to bridge new highs considering the current outlook in the EM & the recent soft data out of the US. One thing I am reading more & more about if an 'emerging' credit crunch in China, bad loans & bad investment. I am not saying that this isn't the case, however this is hardly something new, yet at the moment it is gaining a lot of attention. My personal view & it will be considered controversial, is that it's a diversion tactic from the real game. Blame the 'enemy' or the rising economic power for the world's woes, when in fact it is the more 'mature' economies that are straddled with ridiculously high sovereign debt, over inflated equity markets & the realization that reigning in QE is going to create issues particularly in EM. Sure there is an issue in China around bad loans & credit growth has been exponential which in turn has fueled Chinese growth. However, 1) at least the Chinese government is aware of it & will try & reign in to some degree, unlike the US in 2007/08. 2) Who is best placed to 'accommodate' such a problem? A government with massive financial reserves or Western governments who are stretched. 3) It will be Russia & China that step up to offer struggling nations liquidity. We have already seen this in the Ukraine from Russia buying 2Bln of bonds. What better way is there to gain influence than buying a struggling country's debt?

So what does this mean for gold? Over all higher, much, much higher imo. Not in a straight line, it never is, however there is a lot of appetite still to be fulfilled in EM & there is a renewed appetite growing in the West.

[Daytr]

Yep everything is fine Moosie! LOL. Wow I'm not sure what Moody's are on, but I want some! Do you think capital flows are leaving EM to follow growth in 'advanced' economies? Or do you think its flight risk as EMs are creaking? My money is on the latter. World growth has been propped up by EM & tens of of billions if not hundreds of billions has poured into EM to chase higher returns, however with higher returns is higher risk, as we are just about to find out, again.

Decade long recovery just starting off. Are we heading to another "golden age"? I sure hope so! :)

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-02-18/Emerging-Market-Turmoil-To-Continue-As-Advanced-Economies-Reach-Turning-Point-Moodys.html

[Daytr]

Also Moosie, I prefer the 'Golden Century' rather than the 'golden age'... Watch this space....

[Bobcat.]

Precious metal stocks (including gold diggers) fell in 2008 when the market crashed. They recovered a lot sooner than other Equities but the Equity market did drag them down short-term...so I'm a bit cautious at the mo' -- now 60% cashed up.

I'm picking that the POG will drop below last night's support at 1313USD (perhaps to just south of 1300USD?) taking down the Aussie PM diggers with it to a nice dip, ready for us to buy into sometime late tomorrow afternoon. RSG, PRU, SLR, GRY, TRY, PGI and ROL are all on my radar for easy pickings.

Thursday night rally should then create a lift come Friday.

Trading to it.

BC

[Skol]

The two most accurate gold forecasters are holding on to their bearish view.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-18/top-two-gold-forecasters-remain-bearish-after-2014-rally.html

[Bobcat.]

The two most accurate gold forecasters are holding on to their bearish view.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-18/top-two-gold-forecasters-remain-bearish-after-2014-rally.html

From the same article: "the most-accurate forecaster tracked by Bloomberg in the past two years".

It seems that all you needed to be one of 'the two most accurate gold forecasters' was a bearish forecast two years ago.

It begs the question: just how accurate were their forecasts during the five years prior to that?

Personally, I see the correction over the past 24 hours as just that - a correction, not a reversal and continuation of the Bear market we witnessed last year. Anticipating an asx dip tomorrow afternoon...although some stocks today slid very close to triggering a buy.

BC

[Daytr]

Yeah me to BC. I almost pulled the pin on a couple of buy orders, however I still think gold tests the 200 DMA at least. Mind you I think that will largely depend on how US equities perform tonight.

[Daytr]

I just posted this on HC in a response to a report that gold will target $1400 in 2014.

Gold will leave $1400 in the shade in 2014. The new bull market has only just begun & imo will gain momentum in the next few months.

Some of major catalysts for mine are listed below.

1) India will relax gold import duties around March/April due to looming election.
2) US equity markets will falter & under perform. I'm not sure about a collapse, but a 20%+ correction is on the cards.
3) There will be a major blow up in the Emerging Markets economies. Its only a matter of time.
4) Western appetite for gold will turn net positive via ETFs & COMEX.
5) The likes of Goldman Sachs will do a back flip on the POG forecast.

Nothing goes up in a straight line, however I am targeting $1550-1650 area for 2014.

All just my opinion of course!

[tosspot]

im kicking myself for not selling TRY at 1.50, I had a target of 1.60 and never got hit, lost 15% and maybe more in a few days

[Bobcat.]

im kicking myself for not selling TRY at 1.50, I had a target of 1.60 and never got hit, lost 15% and maybe more in a few days

Paper losses only, Tosspot. Don't sell now. I'll be buying later this afternoon, and for your sake make sure it's not yours I buy!

POG has re-entered its bull market. There's too much uncertainty and fear ahead of us this year (especially w.r.t. various derivative bubbles) for investors not to have an increasing number of Gold stocks in their/our portfolio.

Patience.

[Skol]

SPDR GLD Trust gold in trust down 6 tonnes.

[Bobcat.]

TRY sellers took my bid this morning on opening. It's sp has now recovered to 128 (as I write this). I'm confident that this morning's low of 121 is a dip from which it will rise again over the next few days (or weeks?).

My bids on other PM stocks may get taken towards the end of the day as sellers get nervous about another drop in the POG overnight on the NYMEX.

[Skol]

As you can see there's a direct relationship between the gold price and GLD tonnage.

[Bobcat.]

As you can see there's a direct relationship between the gold price and GLD tonnage.

I notice you've left off your graph Nov '13 - Feb'14 where from mid December to mid January the POG was increasing but the SPDR Gold Trust was still selling. In my view, GLD tonnage lags behind the POG. It doesn't drive it, but is driven by it.

We need to use more suitable indicators if we are to anticipate and confirm trend reversals, momentum, etc.

[Skol]

I notice you've left off your graph Nov '13 - Feb'14 where from mid December to mid January the POG was increasing but the SPDR Gold Trust was still selling. In my view, GLD tonnage lags behind the POG. It doesn't drive it, but is driven by it.

We need to use more suitable indicators if we are to anticipate and confirm trend reversals, momentum, etc.

I haven't deliberately left out the last couple of months, but if you can find a more recent chart please post it. It doesn't match it exactly, but you know what I mean, down she goes.

[Bobcat.]

... you know what I mean, down she goes.

Since the beginning of Feb, SPDR Gold Trust has actually increased its holdings a bit.

2nd Feb: 793 tonnes

Today: 795 tonnes.

We could well be in the middle of a pivot and reversal.

[Daytr]

Well BC, you may have timed your buying very well, as gold did test that 200 DMA yesterday / last night & has since bounced quite nicely. I suspect gold may still have to do some work, before we see a breakout above $1330, where it recently rested. If correct, then there still should be some buying opportunities. Interestingly US equity markets are also higher on the back of US factory activity data. The S&P however is only back to where it was 24 hours ago & is still with in spitting distance of all time highs. I sense the market is wary of the elevated levels of the equity markets & in my opinion, so they should be. To have record highs with the current economic back drop is incredible to say the least. The brokers will keep telling the market its going higher & to buy dips etc as this is how they make their money. I read an interesting article that suggested that hedge-funds & banks were on-selling their equity positions to the retail investor as an exit strategy. It will be interesting to see if this is actually the case in the coming months & I suspect it may well be on the money. The Ukraine is a mess & Mother Russia has spread a wing to shelter part of its errant brood. This is a clever play by the Russians & it wont sit comfortably with Europe or the US particularly as Russia's major gas lines that feed Europe are fed via the Ukraine. This will cause more tension in the coming weeks imo.

[Bobcat.]

Testing 1325USD now.

This month's bullish run has momentum. Trading into it.

Came back in yesterday (Praise-G) on just a few that looked to be dipping nicely - RSG, TRY and PGI - and still holding a few other favourites -- EVN, AZS, CHN and SOC -- most of which I'm expecting will lift again today.

I just love it when we get solid momentum combined with volatility.

Knowing when to sell is more of a challenge at the moment than knowing when to buy. There may be a double top looming but I think it's more likely that this $15 spike has the legs to finish the week north of 1330USD. Now that would really put the bulls in control.

[Daytr]

You could be right BC. I was looking at RSG pretty hard yesterday but didn't pull the trigger. I have been underestimating the strength of gold lately & the last 24 hours has been pretty typical with a shallow dip & then usually posting higher highs.

I get a report with fact of the day included & this is for our Canadian poster.

It is illegal in Canada to look at a moose from an aeroplane! haha

[clip]

Did you know that on average, there is at least one aeroplane to moose crash every year in Canada? Don't know what they've been feeding those woodland creatures since I left...

perhaps red bull

[Bobcat.]

I've sold out of one of the stocks (TRY) that I bought yesterday morning.

I'm getting a bit cagey on the US Equity market, and would not be at all surprised if we see another significant correction tonight, ending the week with lower DJIA, S&P500 and NASDAQ. If that happens, the USD will almost certainly rise against most other currencies and the stock prices of PM diggers drop off a bit (like they did initially back in 2008).

Managing that risk as best I can by trading shorter term for quick modest profits rather than holding for a greater gain, which seems to be working OK...except for my stake in PGI which for the moment is stuck at just under 5cps.

BC

[Skol]

I notice you've left off your graph Nov '13 - Feb'14 where from mid December to mid January the POG was increasing but the SPDR Gold Trust was still selling. In my view, GLD tonnage lags behind the POG. It doesn't drive it, but is driven by it.

We need to use more suitable indicators if we are to anticipate and confirm trend reversals, momentum, etc.

Here's a more recent chart:

[Skol]

I've sold out of one of the stocks (TRY) that I bought yesterday morning.

I'm getting a bit cagey on the US Equity market, and would not be at all surprised if we see another significant correction tonight, ending the week with lower DJIA, S&P500 and NASDAQ.

No correction tonight, up, up and away.

[Bobcat.]

No correction tonight, up, up and away.

As I write this, the major US Equity indices are all flat. The S&P500 for example tried to go 'up, up and away' but again got pushed down from 1845. New highs are not being achieved, and IMO it will not take much of a trigger to scare markets down. More downside than upside at the mo'.

Right now, caution is the better part of valour.

[Daytr]

This week could prove to be a pivotal week for markets with the S&P again banging on the door of the 1850 record highs. Rhetoric in the press seems to covey an unwillingness for equity markets to push on through the major technical level & its likely without a catalyst, we will see equities pull back. Gold & equities have been trading higher in tandem of late, so it will be interesting to see if gold can stand on its own. Its unlikely the two would run in tandem for long & gold has been supported mainly due to a weakening USD which is probably a little over sold. Emerging Markets could again prove to be the catalyst for further strength with the Ukraine becoming a political hot potato with Russia injecting liquidity whilst the US is warning Russia that military action in the Ukraine will not be tolerated. The new regime in the Ukraine has openly stated they want to further their ties to Europe whilst having an equal 'neighborly' relationship with Russia. As previously mentioned the Emerging Markets particularly former USSR states & some South American states are creaking under the pressure of political instability, rampant debt & inflation. These types of issues should see gold well supported & imo its likely we will see a break of $1330 this week, with the next target being $1360. There is a host of data due out this week in the US to examine & none more important than Housing Starts & Consumer Confidence. The mostly weak recent data has been dismissed due to weather, however it won't be long before the market turns its focus to the impact this will have on Q1 corporate earnings. Cheers Daytr

[Skol]

""Gold is one of the most peculiar elements ever discovered, with a value that far exceeds its practical usefulness.""

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/23/the-10-biggest-stockpiles-of-gold.aspx

[digger]

""Gold is one of the most peculiar elements ever discovered, with a value that far exceeds its practical usefulness.""

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/23/the-10-biggest-stockpiles-of-gold.aspx

Skol did you read the small bit on the first fusion breakthrough where in the lab they got more energy out than was put in. This piece was on Kitco. This was achieved by using GOLD in the process. So if that turns out to be so then GOLD will in fact be the most useful of all elements in the practical world.

[airedale]

I did not read that, Digger, is the gold destroyed or totally used up in that process, or can it be re-used.?

[digger]

I did not read that, Digger, is the gold destroyed or totally used up in that process, or can it be re-used.?

As a farmer I would say I am not tooo well read in what happens in the fusion process. Have not got a clue. Just noted the article.

[digger]

I did not read that, Digger, is the gold destroyed or totally used up in that process, or can it be re-used.?

As a farmer I would say I am not tooo well read in what happens in the fusion process. Have not got a clue. Just noted the article.

[JBmurc]

Here you go "Fusion power breakthrough"

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Albrecht/2014-02-19-Fusion-Power-Gold-Enables-A-Breakthrough.html



Also AUD gold just $20 more to go to break past $1500oz (anyone that followed AUD GOLD knows this was a huge milestone couple years back)

[clip]

That's incredibly exciting, more so for the science than it is for my gold stocks for me. 1336 at present!

[Skol]

Also AUD gold just $20 more to go to break past $1500oz (anyone that followed AUD GOLD knows this was a huge milestone couple years back)

Dow up 186, should sell all that silver while you can still get something for it and buy real companies that make real things.

What happened to the great meltdown? lol

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/02/23/red-flag-for-gold-fear-may-be-fading/

[clip]

going isn't going down anymore so now you've changed tactic to silver Skol? :P

[JBmurc]

Dow up 186, should sell all that silver while you can still get something for it and buy real companies that make real things.

What happened to the great meltdown? lol

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/02/23/red-flag-for-gold-fear-may-be-fading/

Yeah make real things out of real materials silver being one ya fool

[Daytr]

The recent $1330 high was eclipsed with ease last night with gold up over 1%, currently trading $1337. Yesterday I mentioned $1330 was to be broken this week, however even I was surprised it was surpassed on its first attempt. A report out of Bank of America (BOA) talked about the flow of buyers & sellers had flipped from earlier in this gold rally. Previously we saw Asia buying & the West selling overnight. Since gold & equities have been running together for the last three weeks or so, the opposite has been true, and there lies the conundrum. Equities & gold do not generally run in the same direction for long. The last time this occurred for any sustainable period was before the credit crunch, and we all know what happened there. Overnight the S&P managed to just break through the 1850 record highs & NASDAQ to 14 year highs. So what is fuelling this optimism? The last couple of weeks it was bad weather impacting the data, hence the weak numbers had been dismissed. Last night it was talk of M&A activity. Reports I have read say something similar to the following. Well if there is M&A activity then perhaps the market isn't overvalued? The market is looking for re-assurance, never a good sign. Sure there could be M&A activity & I am sure other companies will be swallowed at record valuations, because that has never happened before... What this reminds me of, is the gold market in 2009/10, when gold producers wanted to expand no matter what the cost. Bigger was better & all discipline went out the window. Greed & ego will do that & we are again seeing this side of human nature reflected in the US equity markets. Sure they may go higher, fuelled by what I just described. However it will come unstuck imo & without any doubt in my mind. If anyone thinks that equity markets should be at record levels, considering the on-going economic turmoil around the globe & massive sovereign debt of the West & Japan, they need to get their head read. Obviously there is some agreement with this argument, as stated early in the piece, gold is being bought overnight by the West (paper). What this tells me is the smart money is picking gold to keep going & break free of the equity markets. It is widely reported that Soros allegedly has taken a massive short position on the US equity markets & some time ago did the opposite in gold miners. We all know how the latter position must be doing! As I said the smart money... Happy trading. Daytr

[Skol]

going isn't going down anymore so now you've changed tactic to silver Skol? :P

Gold isn't going to go down anymore? Don't bet on it, the more the sharemarkets go up the more punters will abandon precious metals for dividend paying stocks.
And when interest rates rise, gold is a dead duck.

[Bobcat.]

Yes - Gold now has a solid foundation just north of $1300USD (adding to last December's solid double bottom just south of $1200USD). I'm holding fewer PM stocks than I was last month (down to about 40% of my portfolio) but will continue to hold these until $1350USD is reached (tonight?). Most analysts are pointing to $1360USD being the technical level that provides substantial resistance but given its relentless rise of late, I'm guessing a correction from a level just south of that.

It will be interesting to see if that POG correction coincides with a more general and overdue correction to Equity markets.

BC

Discl: ASL, AZS, CFE, CHN, EVN, NTL, PDN, PGI, RSG, RMX, RXL, SOC, WAF.

[Skol]

Daytr says:
--------------
It is widely reported that Soros allegedly has taken a massive short position on the US equity markets & some time ago did the opposite in gold miners. We all know how the latter position must be doing! As I said the smart money... Happy trading. Daytr
---------------

It's correct, Soros has shorted the US stockmarket according to CNBC, must be losing millions, a bit like gold 'expert' John Paulson lost a billion in 1 day on gold.

Remember John Paulson? The goldbug poster boy?

[JBmurc]

Well yet again overnight Markets moved higher along with Gold/Silver/Oil so saying they always work inverse of each other is a load of bollocks>>>

[Daytr]

JB who says that? Oil & gold especially at times when either is spiking will quite often run in tandem. I think if you do a day to day correlation its not that high from memory, however on big moves they tend to run together.
I have a fairly controversial view on oil & I think over the next few years it will go much lower. There will be hydrogen cell powered vehicles in production by Toyota next year. Toyota have already said that they will also build the infrastructure to support if need be (fuel stations). This imo over the next 5-10 years will become a massive threat to oil companies & their downstream retail distributors unless they to adapt. It will also be great for the environment!

[Daytr]

Again we see Asian session selling. It appears we are on a set & forget cycle at the moment. Will we see buying in NYK time again tonight? All cycles break & I suspect the short term equity / gold correlation will break sooner rather than later.

[JBmurc]

JB who says that? Oil & gold especially at times when either is spiking will quite often run in tandem. I think if you do a day to day correlation its not that high from memory, however on big moves they tend to run together.
I have a fairly controversial view on oil & I think over the next few years it will go much lower. There will be hydrogen cell powered vehicles in production by Toyota next year. Toyota have already said that they will also build the infrastructure to support if need be (fuel stations). This imo over the next 5-10 years will become a massive threat to oil companies & their downstream retail distributors unless they to adapt. It will also be great for the environment!

Who,d ya think ... Are main gold hating man skol

[Daytr]

Ahhh of course, I have him on ignore so I don't waste my time.

[Daytr]

Gold edged higher breaking through another technicallevel of $1337. What was interesting is that gold broke its short termcorrelation to US equities with the S&P failing to break through the recordhigh of 1850 & hold. Again, reports I read are looking for excuses tojustify the current levels of the US equity markets. This is the old pump &dump & it’s been used time & time again over the years to suck inretail investors so the brokers & hedge funds can on-sell their positions.Quote of the day comes from Reuters, "We'renot being aggressive, since valuations aren't spectacular here, but thiscertainly isn't a time to run to cash," said Rex Macey, chief investmentofficer at Wilmington Trust in Atlanta, Georgia. How I interpret this is, it’sexactly the time to run to cash & possibly some gold. When do you ever hear a broker or investment manager say to the market, now is the time to be in cash?

The Ukrainian power struggle continues with the balance tipping towards the West with the help of a promised IMF bailout & support of Europe & the US. Russia's offers are being politely snubbed by the new regime, however I suspect there will be a few turns yet in this saga before we know the outcome. Debt concerns for the Ukraine will also be headlining for months & years to come as their sovereign debt is around four times their reserve base. To put that into perspective however, the Ukrainian debt is the equivalent of one month of US QE, when the tap was fully open or circa $85 billion.

So where to for gold? It’s had a stellar run being up 16 of the last 21 trading days & put on some $80 in that same time frame. Resistance sits at $1360 & then major resistance at $1420, where gold's previous bounce failed & it then returned to the $1180 lows. So why did it fail last time & is there anything different this time? It failed as the physical buying ran out of steam, India was in the midst of putting in place heavy duties on gold imports, the West was offloading ETF positions & Hedge-funds had an appetite to short via Comex. Producers also joined the party with some hedging seen. We are again likely to see Chinese buying stall & in fact we are already seeing that with the China domestic price having a discount rather than a premium. ETFs however have shown some appetite to buy albeit relatively small. Speculators have cut shorts dramatically & recently have probably had the biggest influence on the POG. So we may see gold start to stall also, however I very much doubt there is the same appetite to short gold particularly, as the equity markets are looking precarious. Producers may put in place some more hedging, however at the current levels would prove foolhardy in my opinion, as the position could actually create financial strain on the company if gold moves alot higher in the months to come. My view, is that just as gold starts to runout of steam in the coming weeks; it will be India that will come to the rescue, with a reduction in gold import duties sometime in March/April. US equity markets will also falter & this to will prove supportive for gold.

Nothing goes up in a straight line; however gold's resurgence has only just begun in my opinion.

An interesting video interview with the CEO of Sandstorm at the BMO conferencein Florida. It seems finance may be far more available to miners in 2014 than in 2013 particularly from Private Equity.

http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/BMO-Metals--Mining-2014/567/2014-02-25/Sandstorm-Looking-To-Invest-$350m-CEO (http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/BMO-Metals--Mining-2014/567/2014-02-25/Sandstorm-Looking-To-Invest-$350m-CEO)

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The Ukrainian power struggle---who needs a war when you have the IMF and world bank..