Gold [Archive] - Page 25 - Sharetrader Forum

skid

04-12-2013, 08:53 PM

Tapering will hit Gold simply because everyone expects it to--but in the last six months alot have either gotten tired of the bad news ,or truly believe that things are on the mend(even though the elephant is still in the room) and because there has been easy money around,it has gone into the share market and IMO has become very overbought. There are starting to be more who are uncomfortable with the warning signs,but not the mainstream.
I believe the fear will return when the right catalyst comes along as there are alot of things wrong out there.
Theres not much ''back up''--the structure that holds the whole thing up is got some serious rot.
Id rather see gold tank and my other assets keep motoring on,but Im concerned enough to keep physical gold as insurance.
so back to your question--the simple answer is the masses are thinking that things are ''sweet'' so why bother with gold, and as long as things stay ''sweet''(on the surface) they will be right....but will things stay sweet when there is no more prop ups?(QE)
And when some economic crises (or political) comes along (or just no more QE3)and the basic economic structure is not strong enough to keep it stable, then that fear may come back with a vengeance.----or we may cruise for another x years and our kids will have the nightmare.-----thays my take at least

Bobcat.

04-12-2013, 10:48 PM

I'm not seeing any incentive for the US Fed to taper - why would they? The downside for the Big Banks and other Corporate boys far outweighs any upside. They've tapered twice before (down to zero!) and look where that led - to a much larger QE (i.e. buying back $85b of US bonds per month via QE3 - i.e. money printing).

Like cocaine, those making it very rich are too addicted to cheap credit and the corporate profits it brings to let Bernanke, Yellen or anyone else blow away the smokescreen. Even if real inflation starts to become a problem (not yet since purchasing power and consumer demand is barely rising) or employment dramatically improves (not likely short-term), the Fed and other power brokers will find it very difficult (i.e. it will be a career limiting move) to stop digging our economies into the very large black hole that's gaping wider each month with an uncertain future, many surprises and unforseen effects (this hasn't successfully been done before - massive borrowing and bond buying - it runs against tried and true economic practice).

Don't be swept up by the rhetoric, where's the evidence that this is fiscally sustainable?

in my view, as we get more and more accepting of QE, a more likely scenario is that QE is increased in size beyond the current $85b/month. If some is good, more is better - yes?

Yeah, right.

skid

05-12-2013, 10:12 AM

I dont think any sane economist really believes its fiscally sustainable (some probably prefer to just look the other way)
Most know it will eventually hit the fan(but those in control know better than to talk about it)
Its really more an issue of WHEN--So far they have decided its better to postpone it as long as possible and let the kids pay.(Not their kids of course-The everyday workers Kids)

skid

05-12-2013, 10:22 AM

5138

Here's a problem for you to solve skid.

Spot the bubble.

Interesting you say that Skol--Have a look at the gold chart---Have a look at the share market chart--which looks more like a bubble to you?

Bobcat.

05-12-2013, 11:08 AM

Here's an interesting article re why the Germans and others demanding physical gold, and the Americans scurrying around to find it has not led to higher PoG. Fort Knox I would say has very little bullion that is still owned by Americans.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=220618&sn=Detail

Short-dominated Gold Futures, the convenience of ETFs (since traders no longer have to analyse the fair value of various PM stocks), lazyness, gullibility of the masses thanks to mainstream media promoting the political rhetoric of vested interests (in taking the price of PMs lower for future profit) and over confidence in world peace and economic improvement are all factors. We have been misled. Last night's spike to 1250USD is a sign that people are starting to get wind of this.

It will be interesting with the AUD 5% lower over the past 10 days to see how Aussie digger stock prices lift today.

BC

Daytr

05-12-2013, 12:35 PM

Hi from Sydney all,

Blackcap, I think you are missing the point. (perhaps not) With QE commodities were the first to benefit & then the share market started to bubble. Gold has been flogged because shares have gone ballistic. So the same punters that are driving equities higher through the shift in QE stimulus are either selling their ETF holdings or shorting gold. Hence in my view tapering will mean less stimulus will be available to be directed into shares & the current trade of long equities / short gold will come to an end. If the share market suffers gold will benefit imo.

Nice bounce overnight, be great to see gold back over 1250 to trigger some more short covering.

Still does not make sense. The fact that tapering may happen will be factored into the prices of both equities and commodities. Why would commodity traders know something (tapering coming up) that equity traders did not. Or vice versa.

Bobcat.

05-12-2013, 02:22 PM

[Want to put money on the price of gold rising this week off the back of flakey US data?]

I never heard back from you on this bet, Skol. Did you not want to put your money where your mouth is?

The price of Gold over the past 12 hours has lifted $30.

Troy (TRY.ASX) yesterday and today tested support at its bottom of 99c. Now lifting. Did you buy some as suggested? Get in matey before this reversing tide starts pulling many others along.

BC

Bobcat.

05-12-2013, 03:31 PM

Technically, the Bears' downward trend line was busted overnight at 1,240USD, and since then Gold has touched 1,250USD. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 1,258USD. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 1,200USD, which is now looking less likely.

The positive jobs data released last night (ADP nonfarm employment lift of 215k against expectations of only 173k) did very little damage to Gold, and the bottom feeder bulls stepped in soon after to spike Gold up $20 in just one hour.

I'm biased towards another lift tonight once US GDP data is released but more important US economic data is released tomorrow night - nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate. Gold's response to that data will IMO set its course for the rest of this month.

BC

Skol

05-12-2013, 03:45 PM

I never heard back from you on this bet, Skol. Did you not want to put your money where your mouth is?

The price of Gold over the past 12 hours has lifted $30.

Troy (TRY.ASX) yesterday and today tested support at its bottom of 99c. Now lifting. Did you buy some as suggested? Get in matey before this reversing tide starts pulling many others along.

BC

I won't be buying anything gold or silver thanks, I like being solvent.

TRY looks deader than a dead dingos donger, but thanks for the offer.

Every rise in gold will probably be sold off by speculators anxious to get their money out of the gold millstone before the final capitulation.

SPDR Gold Trust is now down 600 tonnes from it's peak holdings.

US$23,919,600,000 worth of gold.

Bobcat.

05-12-2013, 06:11 PM

Skol

05-12-2013, 08:02 PM

Looking at the paper gold ETFs for yesterday shows clearly that all the major ETFs are now purchasing, including Skol's favourite (SPDR Gold Trust, which is up 1.7% on the previous day):

http://etfdb.com/type/commodity/precious-metals/gold-etf/

Long may it continue.

Re TRY, there is a seller who for the past three weeks has been selling down to a limit of $1. Once he's done, sure as the sun rises tomorrow morning, this stock price will rise. I'm guessing it will be over $1.10 sometime next week.

Do you want to put a beer on it, Skol?

BC

Have you been drinking? SPDR Gold Trust down 3 tonnes last night.

You're grasping at straws. Put a beer on it? No thanks, I haven't been to CHC yet to pick up my free dinner from bermuda after I won a bet with him over peak oil several years ago.

Skol

06-12-2013, 09:31 AM

Daytr,

"it's Thursday, rally night".

lol

Bobcat.

06-12-2013, 10:32 AM

Price of Gold was supported off a higher low last night at 1,219USD.

Observe on tab 2 (Gold2) the rising trade volume and low but rising RSI.

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-12-05/template_jimw.htm

DJIA and S&P500 also still tracking down further overnight from last week's 16,000+ and 1800+ highs.

China's territory grab with its recently declared East China Sea Air Defense Identification zone is worrying not only Japan, Taiwan and Sth Korea but also the US who senses it may be drawn into the affair militarily.

Tonight's US nonfarm payroll jobs data if lower than expectation may well provide the catalyst required to ignite a bullish run in Gold.

Meanwhile however today's PM trading on the ASX is likely to be flat or slightly down as traders close positions for the weekend.

I'm getting a few buy signals. OGC for example is a quality company with a low forecasted PE and good buying interest from Bearing Point. It was down 7% in Toronto last night and so will provide a buying opportunity today when it likewise drops (into the 150s?) on the ASX.

BC

Skol

06-12-2013, 06:39 PM

Re TRY, there is a seller who for the past three weeks has been selling down to a limit of $1. Once he's done, sure as the sun rises tomorrow morning, this stock price will rise. I'm guessing it will be over $1.10 sometime next week.

Do you want to put a beer on it, Skol?

BC

TRY .95
Lucky you didn't bet me.

Bobcat.

06-12-2013, 07:32 PM

TRY .95
Lucky you didn't bet me.

Read the quote, Skol. The bet was on TRY getting to $1.10 sometime next week. You're a bit ahead of yourself. I'm still confident it will be...provided US employment data tonight has very little shine to it and Equities continue to drift, etc. Let's see. My wager stands but you need to accept or decline by midnight tonight, otherwise it lapses.

BTW, I forget how to embed a graph like you've just done - please remind me.

Skol

07-12-2013, 02:50 AM

Read the quote, Skol. The bet was on TRY getting to $1.10 sometime next week. You're a bit ahead of yourself. I'm still confident it will be...provided US employment data tonight has very little shine to it and Equities continue to drift, etc. Let's see. My wager stands but you need to accept or decline by midnight tonight, otherwise it lapses.

BTW, I forget how to embed a graph like you've just done - please remind me.

OK, you're on, a beer if this dog does or doesn't make $1.10 by sometime next week.

Bobcat.

07-12-2013, 08:09 AM

OK, you're on, a beer if this dog does or doesn't make $1.10 by sometime next week.

I said by midnight, Skol, but instead you waited until US employment and Manufacturing Index data were released, saw how positive they were, and only then took up my bet. That's a bit indecorous. You missed the deadline - offer is lapsed.

BTW, it's interesting that with all that upbeat data, the price of Gold is unaffected. This could mean it's found a support base.

Skol

07-12-2013, 09:37 AM

Bobcat

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------------------------------
Dow up 198, gold indices down, more of this for you next week bobcat.

Daytr

08-12-2013, 12:56 PM

Note from Sydney. I caught up with a few market players, share brokers & gold traders. Most were overall quiet bullish on the sector as they think it well oversold & that anything that is so unloved & one sided is likely to bounce back strongly, but not just yet if you take my drift. One of the guys who is head of metals at one of the bigger desks in Sydney & traded for 20 years, thinks there has to be some blood before we see a bottom & I tend to agree with him. We both agreed that both NCM & KCN were the most vulnerable & that the hedgefunds are shorting NCM particularly but also the Barricks etc. His view is they are likely to have another crack at gold to break below the $1180 lows & try & force a trigger on the lending covenants. Brokers which I must admit I don't have as much time for their views generally think that the undervaluation of many of the producers, some valued well below asset backing are great buys, but you may need to put up with some volatility. My view is that a break of $1180 certainly can't be ruled out, however gold isn't sustainable much below that, so even if it does break & head towards $1000, its unlikely to be there for long & would bounce back sharply. Gold is being to a degree forced lower by shorting & that at a point needs to be covered. One other thing that is likely is there will be more hedging by producers but most are looking for $100-200 higher, so if we see that a rally could be capped by producers locking in forward prices. Amasing when you think they refused to hedge at $1600, $1700, $1800 & even $1900 & now the will look to hedge $4-500/toz lower!

Skol

08-12-2013, 02:14 PM

Another selloff in SPDR Gold Trust, down another 3 tonnes in 3 days.

Daytr

08-12-2013, 06:48 PM

That's if it was all sold out Moosie, which I very much doubt. I give it a 3-4 months or so & you will ETFs back as net buyers.

835 tonnes, ouch! Not much more than a years selling left at that rate!

Skol

08-12-2013, 07:25 PM

That's if it was all sold out Moosie, which I very much doubt. I give it a 3-4 months or so & you will ETFs back as net buyers.

Yes, and I'm winning Lotto this week. Daytr thinks he's psychic, like Jim Rickards, Jim Sinclair, Peter Schiff, Mike Maloney and all the other clairvoyants.

A post with absolutely no redeeming features whatsoever, except gold might go up. It might not either, not much in the way of analysis from a gold 'expert'.

Bobcat.

09-12-2013, 11:21 AM

Is nobody else surprised that with all the bearish commentary this month, the corresponding nose dive in many miner stocks, and last Friday's better than expected US jobs and consumer data (increasing the likelihood of tapering), the price of gold has for three days now found solid support in the low 1200s?

In fact, if you look at the graph for last week, its lowest price for 5 months (1,212USD) was followed by a higher low at 1,220USD which was tested Friday night and easily held firm. PoG now 1,230USD. If it keeps above 1,225USD at least for 24 hours, this will confirm IMO solid support.

The US Debt ceiling negotiations are not far off, Hedge Funds and others will start to take Equity profits later this week (ahead of Christmas) to make their end-of-year results look good, and China does not look to be backing away from enforcing its new Airspace Identification process for the East China Sea which is creating increasing political and military tensions in Japan, Korea and the USA.

As I posted last week, I'm expecting the price of Gold and Silver to consolidate this week.

ETF trades will adjust accordingly. I'm of the view that ETFs are the cart and not the horse in this regard. The signals will come from elsewhere. At most, ETF holdings merely reflect shifting demand for COMEX and other futures. Their physical backing is dubious and so they merely confirm changing patterns in paper Gold trading - nothing more.

Buy PM stocks - many have been oversold. Get in now and then don't be surprised if Christmas comes early.

BC

Skol

09-12-2013, 12:01 PM

Buy PM stocks - many have been oversold. Get in now and then don't be surprised if Christmas comes early.

BCBuy PM stocks and lose your fingers catching the falling knife.

From Bloomberg Dec 7th:

-----

Hedge funds and other money managers reduced their bets on price gains for five straight weeks and are the least-bullish since June 2007, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed today. The net-long position was 26,774 New York futures and options contracts by Dec. 3, CFTC data show. Short bets rose for a fifth week to 79,631, near the record in July.

Bobcat.

09-12-2013, 04:42 PM

Anybody remember Greenspan?

"Uncertainty now represents the biggest problem plaguing the economy, says former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. "The first and most important issue to recognize in the United States — and it's a problem to an extent in other countries as well — is that the level of uncertainty about the very long-term future is far greater than at any time I particularly remember," Greenspan said.

While the Fed's massive easing program has stabilized much of the economy, "the issue goes beyond that, because, even though we have very major expansion of the balance sheets, it has not essentially spilled over in lending by commercial banks into the usual pattern that one sees when reserves go up," he told CNN's "GPS" program.

So why aren't banks lending more?

It would seem that rather than invest in business and home buying, they'd rather hang onto the stimulus money for more speculative, selfish, derivative plays. This of course simply feeds another derivative bubble. Watch out.
http://www.newsmax.com/StreetTalk/Greenspan-economy-wanders-businesses/2013/12/08/id/540682

With the US FOMC meeting in a week's time to decide, amongst other things, whether or not to taper, the uncertainty that Greenspan speaks of can only be increasing. Uncertainty leads to fear - fear boosts the price of precious metals.

And so it is not surpising that Gold has bounced off three higher lows since last Friday's low of 1212: - 1220 (twice) - 1225 - 1227 - and is now holding well at just above 1230. I'm not expecting a repeat of the downward spike in the last week of last June. The PoG has been easing down for several weeks now and so will not take much to trigger a spike upward.

Consolidating this week IMO.
BC

Discl: I've been buying OGC today.

JBmurc

09-12-2013, 04:55 PM

I,ll be a happy trader if this double bottom is in ... Hundreds millions of paper shorts....India elections coming up mid next year local population unhappy with the massive black market margins on gold should be election issue..many major producers hitting the wall mass lay-offs ....average joe being able to buy PM under costs to produce ...overall 2013 been a shockingly bad year for the PM ...how often do we see a metal having a shocking year to turn round the next

Skol

09-12-2013, 05:09 PM

...overall 2013 been a shockingly bad year for the PM ...how often do we see a metal having a shocking year to turn round the next

Not very often when it comes to gold.

For gold it was 1978 that was a worse November and 1980 that was a worse year, so you could be waiting a long time for a better one, 20 years maybe.

blueswan

09-12-2013, 05:40 PM

I have just been reading all bearish news in Gold from massive exodus from Gold ETF,long /short skew slanting towards bearish side etc etc. And with the Non Farm Payroll showing strength which should have guided Fed to early trimming, gold still bob higher . I think something from left field might just push gold higher over the next few days with unrest in Thailand ( 1997 Asian Crisis) even in Singapore the had a riot! I will be watching this metal closely over the next few days.

JBmurc

09-12-2013, 07:25 PM

Not very often when it comes to gold.

For gold it was 1978 that was a worse November and 1980 that was a worse year, so you could be waiting a long time for a better one, 20 years maybe.

Haha staying at these levels or lower and there won,t be much of a PM sector within couple years let alone 20yrs,,,
What I hope happens and what I think will be forced to happens would be a bottom to form here with move higher early 2014 but just us likely
a spike much lower thanks to funny money kings paper shorting mutiables of yearly PM produced overnight
I,m sure we all remember during the GFC the governing bodies of the markets stopping all shorting of the banking
Sector ... These massive hedge/finance/retirement just love to gang up and munipulate sectors to there favour

Daytr

10-12-2013, 08:41 AM

Bobcat.

10-12-2013, 09:45 AM

Global financial uncertainty, sub-continent unrest, China / Sth Korea / Japan territorial disputes, Equity profit-taking, 2nd hand gold being bought at a $900/oz premium in India, physical demand now outstripping supply, etc, etc all provide increasing support for gold.

It's no wonder that without any defineable spark that the prices of gold and silver are gradually recovering (PoG up $15 overnight). The tinder is very dry and any spark will create a firestorm (at least initially to the downward trendline sitting at ~1300). Bottom feeders will be arriving on masse when the ASX opens later today. Today is not the day to sell PM digger stocks - it's the time to buy and hold.

BC

Edit: PoG now up $20 but with confirmed resistance at 1,243USD. It's established another higher low (new support) at 1,234USD. Each spike off new support (1220, 1228, 1234) has been more aggressve than the previous one, which is encouraging.

Bobcat.

10-12-2013, 02:32 PM

ERA looking like a great bounce play as shareholders sell in panci over a minor, contained leak. was range bound until yesterdays announcement. interesting...

Nothing at all to do with Gold, Moosie, but yes interesting nonetheless - guilty by distant association, Paladin (PDN) is also getting dragged down by the negative sentiment now surrounding Australian uranium diggers. Both however have great medium-long term value IMO (China is building many reactors).

Discl: was holding ERA until I sold last week (thank-G) but still holding PDN.

Skol

10-12-2013, 06:36 PM

Bobcat,
TRY .92.

What happened to $1.10?

JBmurc

10-12-2013, 07:57 PM

Interesting thoughts JB. I made a call just after we bounced of the $1180 lows last time that we had seen the lows & I still stick by that, however as Moosie says pays to be cautious on these things. Debt ceiling is probably first cab off the rank in regards events that could effect gold. I see specs now have the biggest short position since June 2007, so there is an opportunity here for a massive short covering rally just need something to spark it. The Indian election I agree could be massive for gold next year.

Read your rant on HC daytr on hedging ... I have to agree pure madness to hedge round these levels .. Poor old PM producers are getting stiffed ,,,one side you have the major bear paper traders screwing the price in their favour of their positions --- on the other side you have the Major PM Bulls buying the real metal like never before ,,,major refiners are working
24/7 to fill orders with Asian , Russian , Germany pop. the biggest importers (India of course on the black market) ,,,,

It,s time the Major PM producers got together and formed a OPEC type body to work In their favour ...just go look at the 10 yr oil price major traders drove it to 140 then down to 40 in a blink of a eye not on fundamentals but paper trading least the Oil producers had OPEC to stand up and tell the traders to piss off quick smart by reducing production ...A gold cartel could do the same price gets under certain margin gold production could be reduced

Skol

10-12-2013, 08:06 PM

Read your rant on HC daytr on hedging ... I have to agree pure madness to hedge round these levels .. Poor old PM producers are getting stiffed ,,,one side you have the major bear paper traders screwing the price in their favour of their positions --- on the other side you have the Major PM Bulls buying the real metal like never before ,,,major refiners are working
24/7 to fill orders with Asian , Russian , Germany pop. the biggest importers (India of course on the black market) ,,,,

It,s time the Major PM producers got together and formed a OPEC type body to work In their favour ...just go look at the 10 yr oil price major traders drove it to 140 then down to 40 in a blink of a eye not on fundamentals but paper trading least the Oil producers had OPEC to stand up and tell the traders to piss off quick smart by reducing production ...A gold cartel could do the same price gets under certain margin gold production could be reduced

Yeah, what a great idea, a cartel, a monopoly, strange attitude from a capitalist.

JBmurc

10-12-2013, 08:29 PM

Yeah, what a great idea, a cartel, a monopoly, strange attitude from a capitalist.

Free market capitalism is long gone ,,if you don,t have some teeth
Your get walked all over just look at the masters of new phony capitalism
JP Morgan they get fined 10,000,000,000+ for their trading actions but as they
Made way more in profits ,,, its a profit .. No one goes to jail

Like I stated before your never see the ASIC/markets stop the shorting of PM producers like they did With the financial sector(the 80s PM crash come about with the stopping of long orders )or bail out if tens of thousands of jobs are on the line same for every sector really outside the auto/wall street type guys

What could give the international PM sector some teeth would be a OPEC type body,,,,, otherwise we could well see it hard to come by
The PM anywhere near spot prices ....as production hits the wall ..we will be told no one wants it that's why it hard to come by bollocks from the media ... Even see governments try stopping the sale of bullion like their doing in India ...yeah real free market capitalism

Skol

10-12-2013, 10:15 PM

JB,

Despite the endless carping of the goldbugs that the financial world is ending, you should be more positive, otherwise there could be consequenses. Bad ones.
------------

A team of psychologists from Yale University discovered positive thinkers live 7.5 years longer than pessimists. Constant worrying puts a burden on the heart and dramatically increases the negative effects of stress.

Bobcat.

10-12-2013, 10:30 PM

I'm positive about the rise in the price of gold and silver over the past three days - now trading at 1243 and tracking upward in anticipation of the Fed meeting on the 18th (amongst other things).

Are you positive about that, Skol?

I'm also positive about the way that the recent and fearful sell off of PM stocks has created opportunities for people viewing this thread to buy in very low before the POG's turnaround becomes more obvious to the cynics, and upward momentum lifts stock prices.

I have no idea how much higher the PoG will go this week, but higher it will go. It's double bottom has been confirmed and what's bullish is that it was higher than June's 1180 bottom, producing an inverse head and shoulders. Its consolidation is underway.

BC

Discl: still buying as funds permit (now only 10% cashed up). OGC today in the 160's (1.50AUD) was tasty.

peat

10-12-2013, 11:31 PM

Better pray theyre all wrong if youre buying right now...
Traders set their risk
Investors have their time frame.
Last time I prayed nothing happened :mad ;:

Bobcat.

10-12-2013, 11:51 PM

Got more cajones than me. im out until FOMC release next week and decides whether we take the high road or the low road. Market is betting massively against high road right now. Better pray theyre all wrong if youre buying right now...

POG rising tonight helps - currently spiking as I type this to 1248USD. Previous resistance of 1243 is now confirmed support. I haven't seen it this bullish for over six weeks. Go baby go. NYMEX tonight will make or break this bullish run.

BC

JBmurc

11-12-2013, 04:35 AM

Skol

11-12-2013, 08:08 AM

JB,

2 problems with your weird cartel theory. Gold isn't consumed and no one actually needs it the way you need oil.

JBmurc

11-12-2013, 09:27 AM

JB,

2 problems with your weird cartel theory. Gold isn't consumed and no one actually needs it the way you need oil.

Really you never been to a Jewerally or a mint also silver and the PGM are consumed quite hungrily
By industry Silver for one is only second to oil for the amount of applications being used in ,,,

Bobcat.

11-12-2013, 10:05 AM

As an aside: 23 December 2013 is the US Fed's 100th year anniversary in power. Significant?

"Give a man a gun and he can rob a Bank; give a man a Bank and he can rob the community; give a man a consortium of Bankers and he can rob the world."

skid

11-12-2013, 10:49 AM

JB,

2 problems with your weird cartel theory. Gold isn't consumed and no one actually needs it the way you need oil.

The same could be said for those little pieces of plastic paper in your wallet with the Queens picture on them--Just what is it that would make a person go out and work all day for them ,rather than the papers in your recycle bin?

skid

11-12-2013, 10:54 AM

skid

11-12-2013, 10:57 AM

By the way..a bit of topic ,but did you read about what Warren Buffet said about investing in Airlines?

Bobcat.

11-12-2013, 12:43 PM

Bobcat,
TRY .92.
What happened to $1.10?

You had your chance to buy TRY at 92c yesterday, Skol, to sell above $1 within a week (perhaps as early as today)..but because of your cynicism, you chose instead to ridicule those accuratley forecasting a bounce-back, and so now you are out of the money.

$1.10 by the weekend is very much still a possibility.

Meanwhile, I see you favourite barometer SPDR Gold Trust is no longer selling gold (835.71 is unchanged from last week) - why would that be do you think ?

BC

Skol

11-12-2013, 01:04 PM

Meanwhile, I see you favourite barometer SPDR Gold Trust is no longer selling gold (835.71 is unchanged from last week) - why would that be do you think ?

BC

TRY's another gold dog, it'll be sold off the same as gold. Every gold rally will be sold off as punters dump it.

Sometimes it's several days before the SPDR revise their gold in trust, up to a week.

Skol

11-12-2013, 01:06 PM

By the way..a bit of topic ,but did you read about what Warren Buffet said about investing in Airlines?

I know all about Warren Buffett and I know all about airlines, currently the most profitable investment on the planet with one or 2 exceptions.

Chart: gold vs airlines. lol

Discretionary spending, but for how long? We all have to remember that the world is on the brink of financial collapse, right?

Bobcat.

11-12-2013, 01:59 PM

Skol

11-12-2013, 02:15 PM

You're incorrigable, Skol. My gold stocks are up between 5% and a whopping 14% today...and you think this spike is an aberration?

End of debate. Gold has bounced of its bottom in such a convincing way that IMO its good to go all the way to hit 1,300USD sometime next week.

""""My gold stocks are up a whopping 5% - 14% today.""""

Fine, but how much are they down since you bought them? lol

Bobcat.

11-12-2013, 02:48 PM

My gold stocks are up a whopping 5% - 14% today.

Fine, but how much are they down since you bought them? lol

Before today, an average of 12% since October (up 5% this year). After 4 hrs into today, now only ~4% since October. Yes, today they've spiked that much (and you don't see that as bullish?!). At this rate, I'll be back into good profit with my gold stocks by the weekend. Some already are, and if my selling strategy holds up well, I can recover most if not all of my past 6 week's losses by early next week.

In hindsight, I should've seen from the charts that the low of 1260 on 15 Oct was a lower low than the 1280 low early August, and that soon after its rise to 1360 the Bears would again regain control...for a month or two anyhow.

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-12-10/template_jimw.htm

Gold is now consolidating...which was to be expected -- it's done so before after a meteoric rise and several months of retrenchment. Check out its history over the past 40 years.

Meanwhile, the bears are hiding...

Skol

11-12-2013, 03:13 PM

From Bloomberg about contrarian bets in 2014:

Not every beaten-up sector is attractive to contrarians. The price of gold has fallen 25 percent this year to $1,246 an ounce. Gold mining stocks are down 50 percent. Manager Rudolph Riad-Younes of RSQ International Equity Fund (RSQVX) isn't interested. He says the price of gold historically has traded between 10 percent to 15 percent above its cost of production, but today it is closer to 20 percent. Worse, Riad-Younes expects the cost of producing gold to decline in the next five years, further driving down prices.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-10/the-2014-contrarian-investment-tour-from-rupees-to-copper.html

JBmurc

11-12-2013, 09:42 PM

Skol

11-12-2013, 10:58 PM

Well as we can see from the start of the thread skol after three years of being wrong you finally got it in 2013 (even though you won last year on my massive call to see silver close higher than $50)....

2014 the final $100 bet you still walk the talk or think its best to run while you've finally got gold to finish lower than the start of the year ?

Same again, second win in a row, send the moolah to the same address thanks. Next year silver will close even lower, so if silver ends 2014 lower than 2013, I win, right?

Goldbugs love paying too much.

Skol

12-12-2013, 11:38 AM

You had your chance to buy TRY at 92c yesterday, Skol, to sell above $1 within a week (perhaps as early as today)..but because of your cynicism, you chose instead to ridicule those accuratley forecasting a bounce-back, and so now you are out of the money.

$1.10 by the weekend is very much still a possibility.

Meanwhile, I see you favourite barometer SPDR Gold Trust is no longer selling gold (835.71 is unchanged from last week) - why would that be do you think ?

BC

No chance TRY will hit $1.10 by the weekend unless there's a nuclear war. Has to go up 16% and the HUI, GDX, XAU and GDXJ all down 3 - 4%.

Did you notice the SPDR Gold Trust is down another 2 tonnes to 833? No one's buying gold, except maybe the 'very smart chinese'. lol

JBmurc

12-12-2013, 11:38 AM

Yes one mass kick of the can down the road...

Daytr

12-12-2013, 04:43 PM

Interesting to see equities start to struggle now that tapering is closer to a reality. Massive stimulus which has been largely directed at the equity markets if withdrawn the reality starting to sink in. Opposite should be seen for gold as the massive short position will need to be closed. God I hope they taper & fast!

Skol

13-12-2013, 08:40 AM

Yes one mass kick of the can down the road...

Looks like another day of accumulating those incredibly cheap goldies JB, US gold indices down 1-2%.

A few goldbugs will be spewing today after backing the truck up thinking 'the bottom's in', gold's got a long way down to go yet to catch up to the HUI.

If it did, gold woud be US$918.

Skol

13-12-2013, 10:49 AM

SPDR Gold Trust down another 6 tonnes in the last 24 hours, now 827 tonnes.

Was 969 tonnes on 1/7, 142 tonnes, that's one sh*tload of gold looking for somewhere to go.

Dropping on average 30,000 oz/day.
Barring a panic, SPDR Gold Trust will be empty about May 2016 if it continues depletion at its current rate.

skid

13-12-2013, 12:43 PM

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-economys-recovery-is-a-sheep-in-wolfs-clothing-2013-12-12

skid

13-12-2013, 12:47 PM

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-investments-where-a-bubble-may-be-brewing-2013-11-12

this ones for skol

Skol

13-12-2013, 01:12 PM

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-investments-where-a-bubble-may-be-brewing-2013-11-12

this ones for skol

I've seen that, you could probably include the properties where I live, up 26.3% in the last 12 months. One of my neighbours sold his house a few months ago for $2.6m. The new owner has completely gutted it and spent another million. Seems like a good guy, says it's his 'weekend' house.

skid

13-12-2013, 02:40 PM

Properties are consistently heading up where we are as well(housing shortage in Auckland)--but not in the 26% category--thats a pretty big leap.

Sometimes I think about cashing up on one of the rentals--but it always comes back to what would I do with the money?

skid

13-12-2013, 02:41 PM

Skol

13-12-2013, 03:40 PM

It's reported that North Korea may be in some economic strife and is selling gold to China. More gold flooding the world market. The North Koreans may have up to 2,000 tonnes, but the real amount is secret.

-------

As Zhu Feng, professor of international relations at Peking University, told the New York Times, Jang was “the man China counted on to move the economy in North Korea. This [Jang's dismissal] is a very ominous signal.” Chinese media have also relayed reports from South Korea that the North Korean leadership has begun exporting gold reserves to China. According to the reports, this could be a sign that North Korea is facing its most serious economic crisis since the country’s founding. While speculative, the reports do indicate a concern within China that there may be a crisis on the horizon in North Korea.

---------
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2013/12/11/33/0401000000AEN20131211004100315F.html

Bobcat.

14-12-2013, 03:29 PM

TRY down to 92. Think you owe the man a drink BC...

Read my offer, Moosie. I would if Skol won it but the bet was conditional on him accepting my offer before the US nonfarm employment data was published last week, and he missed the deadline. But yes, TRY has not yet lifted as I expected it would. Directors have been buying quite a bit at these levels which is always a good sign - it won't stay here for long. I'm expecting a SSH to be announced soon.

Don't ignore the POG spike last week - yes, there are still some very big shorts out there but it was a momentum shift. I see it's crept up again over the past 12 hours - from a 1,220USD bottom back to 1,240USD. Bears would need to take it down through 1,210USD before I start to get nervous about my holdings...and in spite of media hype getting pretty thick on hedging, next plunge, etc, etc (which has to be a good sign for Gold!), I'm picking a gradual recovery through the FOMC meeting Wednesday and beyond. Gold and Silver IMO are definitely consolidating.

BC

Skol

14-12-2013, 03:48 PM

Bobcat.

14-12-2013, 04:38 PM

Bobcat,
Actually I did accept your offer many hours earlier and while instructing you on how to post a chart or picture I put a picture of myself hard at work in 1971. I got up early in the morning and removed it because it wasn't really relevant to gold and rehashed the post.

I'm good for my word, Skol, but it seems you may not be:

Your post #6274 declined my offer.

Then 50mins after the US employment data was released on 7th Dec you posted #6280 accepting my offer, but not meeting the single condition attached to it - namely that you accepted or otherwise by midnight that evening. You were 2hrs 50mins too late. The reason I set that condition was to counter precisely what you attempted - to ride on the back of a very positive US economic announcement that would take more gloss off gold and drive TRY lower.

If now you'd like to counter with your own offer (again one beer could be the stake) then feel free to do so. e.g. Gold under $1000??? Let me know where you're confidence lies.

Meanwhile my own confidence leads me to believe that Gold will more likely be >$1350 by February.

BC

Skol

14-12-2013, 04:59 PM

I'm good for my word, Skol, but it seems you may not be:

Your post #6274 declined my offer.

Then 50mins after the US employment data was released on 7th Dec you posted #6280 accepting my offer, but not meeting the single condition attached to it - namely that you accepted or otherwise by midnight that evening. You were 2hrs 50mins too late. The reason I set that condition was to counter precisely what you attempted - to ride on the back of a very positive US economic announcement that would take more gloss off gold and drive TRY lower.

If now you'd like to counter with your own offer (again one beer could be the stake) then feel free to do so. e.g. Gold under $1000??? Let me know where you're confidence lies.

Meanwhile my own confidence leads me to believe that Gold will more likely be >$1350 by February.

BC

No thanks, I'm just about to collect my annual bet from JB Murc, the Mrs. will be pleased.

Skol

15-12-2013, 09:34 AM

JIm Rogers ( not that I've got much time for him because his gold buy/sell recommendations change with the wind) said the other day that it's not normal for a commodity to rise for 12 years.

He said it is normal for a commodity to fall by 50%, so it's very likely gold could fall to around US$960.

Skol

16-12-2013, 12:24 PM

Repent gentlemen, the end is nigh. Marc Faber says the US will collapse before the end of 2013. Hahahaha

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6F7kTHuNNN4

Skol

16-12-2013, 05:16 PM

Gold Funds See Unprecedented 31% Slump as World Loses Faith

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-15/gold-funds-see-unprecedented-31-slump-with-world-losing-faith.html

Daytr

16-12-2013, 05:51 PM

Gold seems to be getting tired to me & I don't mean that its going to go lower in fact perhaps we are about to see a correction. We have been trading around the same levels for about a month now & something has to give or the shorts will close out. Perhaps that means lower & the shorts remain & increase, however unless we see the $1180 lows broken soon I think they cover. The short position is pretty large from what has been reported out of COMEX so could mean quite a move if it comes off. I have always said tapering will be positive for gold, could be the catalyst.

Daytr

16-12-2013, 09:21 PM

Yep, the Fed could deliver a nice Christmas present for us Moosie. Proof in the Christmas puddin !

JBmurc

16-12-2013, 11:10 PM

Yep, the Fed could deliver a nice Christmas present for us Moosie. Proof in the Christmas puddin !

Yes bring on the TAPER get rid of the lot(been saying it for awhile now) ....see how long these Massive PM shorters can hold when the DOW plunges 1000points in a week ....they will be forced to close out the PM shorts to cover other margin position's ...the lead in PM prices will attract the sideline crowd waiting for the bottom to form before Buying..
Listening to some US bull on CNBC rates going up in US 1%+ LOL rates up Taper down >>>just love to see how that will payout with all the DEBT costs also going up ..

Skol

17-12-2013, 11:54 AM

Trouble at Mill.
SPDR Gold Trust down 9 tonnes overnight.

Gold's toxic.

JBmurc

17-12-2013, 12:40 PM

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/15759?utm_source=delivra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Gold+final+12%2D16%2D13

There are oil and potash cartels; the gold industry should come up with something similar.

TGR: Most cartels, like the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are privately held businesses. This makes it easier to get consensus. How would that work with publicly held companies?

SB: Public companies are part of the American and Russian potash cartels. A gold cartel would work like the potash market. Mining companies should collectively refrain from selling into the market at spot prices but should instead find buyers themselves, as there are definitely investors worldwide—especially from Asia, as well as the Middle and Far East—that would pay high premiums on the spot price to get their hands on physical bullion.

What is there left to lose for the deeply depressed mining industry but to take revolutionary steps and to fight back smartly? I hate to see the miners just waiting and hoping for better times, getting increasingly beaten up, defenseless. Now is the time to get their act together before the banks force them to hedge and sell forward their business for peanuts, rendering them incapable of benefiting from rising prices in the future.

Skol

17-12-2013, 01:30 PM

You think the hedge funds and ETF speculators are going to care about a cartel? Besides it's probably illegal, there's such things as Anti-Trust laws.
---------------------------------

United States antitrust law is a collection of federal and state government laws, which regulates the conduct and organization of business corporations, generally to promote fair competition for the benefit of consumers. The main statutes are the Sherman Act 1890, the Clayton Act 1914 and the Federal Trade Commission Act 1914. These Acts, first, restrict the formation of cartels and prohibit other collusive practices regarded as being in restraint of trade. Second, they restrict the mergers and acquisitions of organizations which could substantially lessen competition. Third, they prohibit the creation of a monopoly and the abuse of monopoly power.

----------------------------------

OPEC is a cartel which was moderately successful extorting the West in the 70 and 80's but the boot's on the other foot now. The USA is set to overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's 2nd biggest oil producer and several OPEC countries are in a state of chaos or marginalised by sanctions or dictatorial regimes.

OPEC is not subject to Anti-Trust laws because they are countries rather than companies, how many countries are going to start extorting other countries for gold? Lots of countries have more gold than they need and others like NZ also have massive gold resources that just need exploiting.

No one needs gold. Only goldbugs, or deranged (university qualified of course) central banksters that have collectively lost US$550 billion.

skid

17-12-2013, 05:16 PM

skid

17-12-2013, 05:22 PM

Meanwhile--what if they dont taper this week ---wont that be anticlimactic--no one will see whether gold tanks --the share market tanks ---or maybe nothing will tank----Maybe they just dont have the BALLS for the next social economic experiment

skid

17-12-2013, 05:27 PM

Friday will give you an answer my friend ;)

Moosie ,your anticipation for a bottom is increasing by the minute--your drooling on your keyboard:eek2::eek2:

Skol

17-12-2013, 07:37 PM

Watch how fast all that shale oil production drops off in the USA,but no problem,those dictatorial regimes are easily replaced by the good ole CIA--Even Saudi Arabia has been under their thumb for ages (someones gotta protect that black gold)
Maybe if society collapses and we go back to bartering no one will need Gold..or paper money.

I'm enjoying seeing these despotic regimes getting what's coming to them, with any sort of luck I'll be getting begging brochures in the mail pleading for donations for the poor starving arabs. They're gonna be out of luck, loads of oil to go around with new technology and the arabs will be selling their gold to make ends meet. lol

corran

17-12-2013, 07:46 PM

I'm enjoying seeing these despotic regimes getting what's coming to them, with any sort of luck I'll be getting begging brochures in the mail pleading for donations for the poor starving arabs. They're gonna be out of luck, loads of oil to go around with new technology and the arabs will be selling their gold to make ends meet. lol

Even with all the *loads* of cheap oil it's still trading at around $110USD a barrel. I don't think the arabs are coming to come cap in hand to your door anytime soon Skol :-)

Skol

17-12-2013, 08:07 PM

Even with all the *loads* of cheap oil it's still trading at around $110USD a barrel. I don't think the arabs are coming to come cap in hand to your door anytime soon Skol :-)

Where oil goes, gold goes, and with unsophisticated OPEC backwaters like Venezuela, Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Libya and Nigeria pumping lots of oil to make ends meet, and lots of new technology, we can look forward to cheap oil and gold for many years to come if not forever.

Heard the latest buzzword? 'Peak cars', which means cheaper oil and therefore cheaper gold. Mexico is opening up it's oilfields to competiton, lots more oil there. Can't wait.

ETF's are dumping gold like hot bricks, it's not going higher, it's going much, much, lower.

corran

17-12-2013, 08:20 PM

Where oil goes, gold goes, and with unsophisticated OPEC backwaters like Venezuela, Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Libya and Nigeria pumping lots of oil to make ends meet, and lots of new technology, we can look forward to cheap oil and gold for many years to come if not forever.

Cheap oil from when Skol???? the 'new' technology is not that new anymore.

How do you define cheap? I'm not that old but can remember when $30 oil was the norm. Do you think we're going to get back there again?

Anyway, I'm getting off topic here so won't post anymore about it. Always happy to continue the debate on the peak oil thread though :-)

JBmurc

17-12-2013, 10:04 PM

Yeah I'm sure the Arabs a fair shaking in their sandals selling their cheap Oil for $110bbl while the yanks crow about the high cost shale....
Short term the Yanks are shouting from the roof tops on all their massive Oil & Gas shales ...another decade or so and it all will be forgotten as the decline curve on shales is very steep ...for one if say Oil did go to $50-$60bbl how great will those shales be then

Bobcat.

17-12-2013, 11:04 PM

Articles like this one bring out the Contrarian in me.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=221870&sn=Detail

Skol

18-12-2013, 10:44 AM

No end in sight atm.

HUI -.47%
GDX -.9%
XAU -.41%
GDXJ -2%

Daytr

18-12-2013, 01:06 PM

Skid, I don't think they will taper this week, I just wish they would! All things staying the same I still think March. The market however will always front run the event so now or March doesn't make a lot of difference as long as the market does have a firm view it is coming sooner rather than later. I have no firm view on gold at the moment. I think we could have one more attempt at $1180 lows & see gold break through 10% lower, but I could also see that we have seen the lows & we rebound from here. All that matters in my view is that I think over time & I mean over the next few months I think we will see gold start to track higher & again I favour March for a turn around. But that's just the view I have held for some time & I still stick by it until I see something to alter that view.

Meanwhile--what if they dont taper this week ---wont that be anticlimactic--no one will see whether gold tanks --the share market tanks ---or maybe nothing will tank----Maybe they just dont have the BALLS for the next social economic experiment

Skol

18-12-2013, 03:01 PM

SPDR Gold Trust down another 2 tonnes overnight, there's no letup.

JBmurc

19-12-2013, 08:13 AM

Yes 10 billion reduction so only 900 billion per year to keep the rates at zero till unemployment goes much lower
Gold moves higher

blackcap

19-12-2013, 08:19 AM

Yes 10 billion reduction so only 900 billion per year to keep the rates at zero till unemployment goes much lower
Gold moves higher

I dont see Gold going higher or is my Kito site not working properly? I do see the DOW going higher though. That was a bit of a surprise.

clip

19-12-2013, 08:19 AM

Hey JB are you saying gold would move higher on this news, or when unemployment drops

skid

19-12-2013, 08:45 AM

TAPER TIME!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-cuts-bond-buying-program-to-75-billion-2013-12-18?link=MW_latest_news

Not seeing to much blood yet Moosie--theres alot of reasons gold could go down ,but it looks like initial panic is not one of them ATM

skid

19-12-2013, 08:54 AM

JBmurc

19-12-2013, 09:02 AM

Hey JB are you saying gold would move higher on this news, or when unemployment drops

From my understanding the FED stated zero rates are here till unemployment drops below 6.5%....

think gold has moved on the zero rates looking likely for longer etc

JBmurc

19-12-2013, 09:30 AM

JB, this is not conducive to higher gold. it spiked then fell back quickly. tapering was already factored into the price so I guess its same old same old with the slow and steady downtrend. hence why I urged caution the past few days!

yeah has done now I checked the gold price right after the FED ann. and it was past 1240.... next few days will give us a better idea how it all plays out ...waiting for some major PM miners to shut down... I see the Aussie Nickel miners are in major trouble BHP closing down a mine looking very grim for many Aussie miners..

Take away all the stimulus I say Gold would fall for a start till US debt market collapses ...but they can't do that watch the whole Taper to take years

Daytr

19-12-2013, 09:33 AM

Gold initially moved higher & then lost all its gains & is now negative. Stocks are higher on the news of the taper. Its early days so will be interesting to see what the market does over the next week now that the news is in. Remember there is still $75Bln of stimulus being injected each month which is massive. The question now is & let me know if anyone has seen anything, what is the timeline for further cuts in stimulus? I think it will be fairly drawn out to cushion the equity markets.

clip

19-12-2013, 10:33 AM

where are you seeing this price moosie? I've been using goldprice.org and currently seeing around 1218?

peat

19-12-2013, 10:35 AM

haha
clip don't worry , moosie makes predictions as if they happened already... current price is as you see it.

Daytr

19-12-2013, 10:37 AM

I think Moosie is referring to the previous lows. Yep trading $1219 at the mom. They mentioned tapering $10Bln per month, does this mean QE reduces to zero in Aug/Sep 2014? If so that's faster than I anticipated.

where are you seeing this price moosie? I've been using goldprice.org and currently seeing around 1218?

corran

19-12-2013, 10:54 AM

I think Moosie is referring to the previous lows. Yep trading $1219 at the mom. They mentioned tapering $10Bln per month, does this mean QE reduces to zero in Aug/Sep 2014?

Nope, at least what I understood was that they're reducing QE down to $75 billion from it's current level of $85 billion but I don't think there was any statement about tapering it further from $75 billion.

So it's not being reduced by 10 billion per month.

Skol

19-12-2013, 11:34 AM

Gold bugs have consistently said there WILL be no taper. What's happened?

Stocks soar, gold tanks.

Looking good for the retirement fund.

SPDR Gold Trust down another 4 tonnes overnight. All adding up to the death knell for precious metals.

skid

19-12-2013, 12:09 PM

Yep ,maybe spoke to soon--we'll see.
Its the surge in equities that is surprising--Time will tell on that (maybe the share markets will go on forever to infinity--you think?)
They say its impossible to predict a bubble till it pops,but the share market is hitting highs as if everything is ok out there--Is everything ok out there??

Skol

19-12-2013, 12:24 PM

Yeah it is actually, only the goldbugs and idiots like Marc Faber think the world's ending by 31/12. lol

skid

19-12-2013, 01:36 PM

Thanks Skol -now I feel better about the US and world economy--looks like that tapering got rid of all those problems...just like that:)

Bobcat.

19-12-2013, 02:14 PM

QE to infinity and beyond!

Today's Fed speech does not signal a move to taper any more than this mere $10B - it is but a token gesture, designed to:

a) quell rising discontent over the lack of significant job numbers or any other economic benefits resulting from QE3's massive bond buying programme to date
b) make Bernanke look good as he exists, and
c) give Yellen and others in the Fed more room to keep printing money without having to signal an end date.

Did you notice how he shifted the goal posts re tagging QE3 to a target unemployment rate of 6.5%? Bernanke made clear that when it gets to 6.5% the Fed will then look at other labour market factors (labour force detachment, wages, etc) to get a clearer picture as to when (whether or not) to finish QE3. In other words, in his view the Fed is not obliged to end "asset purchases" = "bond buying" = money printing = feeding Banks free capital to do what they like with...just because unemployment reaches 6.5%. This should give cause for concern. Instead, more and more money flows into Equity markets (and out of Gold)...as people kid themselves that we are heading for prosperous times.

Wake up folks. Eight years of Fed meddling with the US economy has resulted in a huge increase in Money Supply (M2 and M3), wealthier banks but very few extra jobs and interest rates, inflation and wages that all STILL need to be kept artifically low. No wonder Greenspan and other thinkers are concerned. Where's the promised recovery?

We need to ask ourselves : "Just who really benefits?"
Answer: Mainly the banksters who have been pumping this free money into their Balance Sheets, and then, rather than making it easy for businesses and consumers to get credit, have told most customers that they don't qualify. These banksters are instead using all this 'stimulus' money for speculative investing to earn greater profits for their shareholders (as evidenced by most major banks' 2013 P&L accounts). It's nothing short of self-serving - one group of powerful banksters (the big boys in Goldman Sachs and others at the Fed) looking after themselves and their mates in high places to cream the economy and instruct Bernanke to keep spinning all the way to his retirement that things are improving and we are better off with their meddling, which he has again done this morning. It's B-S.

Yes, many have swallowed it believing what they want to believe but I'm not swallowing it...and neither is the smart money. Notice that in spite of tapering and the DOW being up almost 300 points today, Gold has not plummeted as many predicted. IMO it has found its bottom and since there will not be another taper for many, many months, that spectre is no longer hanging over our heads, haunting PM diggers and their stockholders. Consolidation - here we come.

Gold has bounced nicely off a 3rd higher low of 1,217USD to now trade at around 1,225USD. And why not? The bad news for Gold and Siver is all behind us.

BTW - don't believe all that hedging talk coming out of Barrick Gold - it's designed to pull your strings and manipulate the market. It's not a coincidence that NZ Super decided not to invest in that company due to 'ethical concerns'.

Enjoy the recovery, gold-diggers. I'm holding, and buying on dips through this month and next quarter.

BC

peat

19-12-2013, 02:28 PM

Jim Rickards tweet sums it up

The #Fed took away the punch bowl, but they replaced it with Tequila Jell-O shots in the form of "additional" forward guidance. #PartyOn

Bobcat.

19-12-2013, 02:35 PM

It's more like amphetimines they are feeding us. And yes, there are side effects, usually felt the morning after:
nervousness, restlessness, excitability, dizziness, headache, fear, anxiety, and tremor. All good for Gold's market demand.

http://www.rxlist.com/adderall-side-effects-drug-center.htm

peat

19-12-2013, 03:02 PM

Bobcat.

19-12-2013, 03:19 PM

Kathy lien says it will be reduced by 10b per FOMC meeting ( 8 per year, timetable here) http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm#20363
And will be over by end of 2014

https://twitter.com/kathylienfx/status/413408507267149824

To be clear...there is no obligation on the Fed to taper any more than what they have announced today -- i.e. $10B off $85B/month. Yellen may or may not announce further tapering as a result of 2014's 6-weekly FOMC meetings. They meet to decide, amongst other things, the amount of QE3 bond buying. It's not dictated in advance.

Bernanke said "If incoming data broadly support the Fed outlook for Employment and Inflation we will likely reduce asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings." That's a big IF - nothing committed. You, Kathy whats-her-name and other wishful thinkers are being played.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/12/18/fed-meeting-december/4078769/

Bobcat.

19-12-2013, 07:23 PM

BC I know you understand how the market and PM market works, but your posts seem very emotional. if you are getting stressed, can I suggest a nice hot bath followed by a few hours of restrategising and formulating new plans based on this info?

Yeah Moosie, I get worked up a bit when I see so many people being duped by fat Banksters and their cohorts. US Congress is reviewing the purpose, structure and mandate of the Fed next month. Let's see if smarter people than you and me see through the Fed's veneer and ulterior motive.

Meanwhile, the Banksters prosper at just about everyone else's expense.

Skol

19-12-2013, 07:58 PM

Meanwhile, the Banksters prosper at just about everyone else's expense.

Don't blame the banksters, blame yourself!

Bobcat.

19-12-2013, 08:12 PM

Don't blame the banksters, blame yourself!

How am I prospering at everyone else's expense, Skol - snap out of it.

I see that PoG is again lifting - it's now only $5 down from where it was 2 hours before the Fed announcement. Smart money sees increasing economic risk of a bubble regardless of Central Banksters claiming otherwise.

BC

Skol

19-12-2013, 08:19 PM

Smart money sees economic risk? Where? I've just been downtown, the place is humming, bars and restaurants full, punters seem to have lots of confidence, sharemarkets on a tear, airplanes full, great new car sales, property booming.

Owning gold or silver is worse than having an STD. lol

Bobcat.

19-12-2013, 08:32 PM

Do you not ever swim against the current, Skol.

Never been fly fishing? The wise old brown trout swims slowly, silently and confidently against the current from behind the largest rock (his Equity) examining carefully all the flotsam and jetsam (PR propaganda) floating down the mainstream (media) until he sees a tasty morsel (underbought, overbought or oversold stocks) and makes his move swiftly and surely.

The novice trout meanwhile make noise splashing about with the crowd, sometimes upstream but more often downstream, just going with the flow - eating what everyone else is munching on, ignoring the shadows approaching with long poles...

Skol

19-12-2013, 08:50 PM

Bobcat,

Of course I swim against the current, I'm a contrarian and a bubble watcher par excellence, but given gold's poor history of returns buying gold or gold shares right now could be a financial death warrant. Might be 20 years before the next precious metals mania, because that's what they are, manias.

I'll tell you my priorities for the next 18 months or so which gives you an indication of my confidence in the economy.

1. Spend about 100k on the house in Jan.
2. Spend some more putting a bore down for additional water in Feb.
3. Retire
4. Buy a brand spanking new vehicle.
5. Go on an extended holiday taking in a cruise.

The pog is not lifting, it's dying, a slow agonising death, taking heaps of naive punters with it.

Including Ron Paul, Mike Maloney, Jim Sinclair, the Aden Sisters, Jim Rickards, James Turk, Martin Armstrong, Marc Faber, Jim Willie and all those other Schiffheads.

I don't know how many times I've read that the taper can't possibly happen, according to Marc Faber there'll be QE number 56.
Goldbugs have got it wrong, big time, they've been reading too many hard assets newsletters, they've been hoodwinked.

Looks like tomorrow is gonna be a horror day for goldbugs.
Lucky I didn't take your advice and buy TRY, insolvency doesn't do much for me.

Skol

19-12-2013, 10:24 PM

$1200 being tested in Europe, shall see if $1179 holds over night. sweet dreams everyone!

Dreams or nightmares?

JBmurc

19-12-2013, 11:21 PM

Latest from CNBC --FED Matters- interview with a De Noronha--Asked on his view on Gold-" very bullish on Gold long term , but I do have Gold puts at the moment as I think we could test $1000 lows ..then I think it will be one of the most important BUYS of the Decade"....

I also agree 100% also on his view's on the likes of the US Markets 2014 the S&P has only 3% earnings growth for 2014 .....since 09 50% of the Companies on the S&P growth came because of the record zero rates which with the Taper is going be under pressure...already we see the 10yr Bonds heading towards 3% bring on the full withdraw of Q.E (which is basically the FED buying toxic debt that no-one would touch)

How well do you think many companies or consumers will do with double the rates they pay for credit/debt ??

The FED TAPERED at the lowest amount possible ...more so token to the leaving Bernanke

Also Energy costs not exactly crashing I remember when 9/10 analyst use to state higher than $60 oil would kill the economic growth I can't remember the last time I seen brent OIL under $100bbl

99 out of 100 analyst will tell you to dump PM interest and buy the general market load up in companies that don't even make a profit that are worth billions in hope ... personal the fall in Gold may be here for awhile yet (as late as mid 2014) but further out the smart buyers now will make an absolute killing

Skol

20-12-2013, 07:30 AM

HUI -2%
XAU -1.45%
GDX -1.7%
GDXJ -2%

"ETFs have declined in excess of 300,000 ounces … this week alone, which also witnessed the largest single day outflow since last October."

Gold now sub-$1,200, aren't 'the very smart chinese' supposed to be buying gold and rescuing the goldbugs from destitution? Even 'the very smart chinese' must be getting a little shellshocked by now, they're becoming 'the very poor chinese'.

By the way, the main reasons chinese are buying gold is because it's a novelty to be able to own something they've never been allowed to own before and in China there are very few investment options.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101286589

Looking pretty grim, the latest 10 min chart.

Skol

20-12-2013, 12:06 PM

SPDR Gold Trust down another 4 tonnes overnight. That's 25 tonnes for the week.

US$956,462,500 worth.

Daytr

20-12-2013, 12:56 PM

Moosie, the time to put shorts on was 12 months ago! Perhaps you will make money shorting here, but the risk is to the upside imo. We may not have seen a bottom, however this market reminds me of what we saw just before gold peaked, however the inverse. If you are in the right stocks you can still do ok. I haven't really made much money in the last month, but I haven't lost any. Key is no debt & low production costs or an explorer that already has funding to last for some time to come. When the market starts yelling its time to start sellin or in this case buying. Well not just yet I must admit as I want to see where this latest move takes us before buying as I think there are some stocks that I am eying will get cheaper yet. Another point Moosie, what was the cost of production of gold in 1980 & what is it now? But there's no inflation right! The cost of gold production to me is the true indicator of where inflation really sits not what the government statisticians release, adjusting for this & that & removing energy completely! Anyway Moosie each to their own, however in b regards shorting I think you have missed the boat completely.

yerrr, if you sold your gold miners this past week...!

Hate to say it but have been comparing 1980 to 2011-12 and looks very similar (chart wise). huge run ups, fears of things which never materialised, a break downwards followed by an "I dont want to miss the train" rally, then ultimate downward spiral and price collapse.

1980 - $850 to $300 in less than a year.

2013-14 - $1970 to (my estimate) $800 by the time tapering has nearly ended in December 2014.

There might be a relief bounce this coming year (just like 1981), but it will be short. I shall be watching closely for it.

Time to put my shorts on.

Skol

20-12-2013, 01:24 PM

Bitcoin and gold. When this happens there's only gonna be one result, suckers get cleaned out.

Bobcat.

20-12-2013, 01:28 PM

I've decided to put my money where my mouth is, and purchase more PMs today (TRY, EVN and/or RXL)...but I'll probably wait until later this afternoon (anticipating the usual ASX sell-off ahead of the weekend).

Most of my PM stocks are holding up well today, despite a drop in the PoG overnight to equal its 6-month low. IMO, the stars are aligning for a lift next week in Aussie resource stocks:

1. Falling AUD
2. Hedge Fund Equity profit taking next week (for year-end accounts and related bonuses)
3. Good possibility of Gold's double bottom holding (@1,187USD)
4. US data overnight was less than impressive (existing home sales, initial jobless claims, etc all came in lower than forecasts), and this may counter yesterday's 2% spike and related momentum in Equities.

clip

20-12-2013, 01:47 PM

Bitcoin and gold. When this happens there's only gonna be one result, suckers get cleaned out.

still good money to be made - bought BTC @ NZD$674, sold today @ NZD$830 :)

Daytr

20-12-2013, 02:28 PM

I bet you are glad you are out though Clip!

Brave man BC, I hope it works out for you & I'm sure it will over time, you may have to wear some pain first. Just get the feeling we will see more downside yet. Good points u make re hedgefunds etc & its something to consider as the short on Comex is massive. Think I'll wait to see what happens tonight & look again Monday to see if I buy more in.

clip

20-12-2013, 02:40 PM

happy enough - i have only a very small doubt it will be back up to 1000nzd by the end of january, however I am an impatient man and with no transaction fees to effect my profits I am happy to get rid of them a day later - will provide for a nice free boozy/foody weekend ahead :) I noticed the price slipped from 860 to 830 before I sold and didn't want to risk losing profits and having to hold them until it returned to it's upward trend :)

Daytr

20-12-2013, 04:21 PM

I think BTC is a suitable investment as long as you realise its probably just a fad & in all likelihood be worth nothing in a few years, perhaps less.

happy enough - i have only a very small doubt it will be back up to 1000nzd by the end of january, however I am an impatient man and with no transaction fees to effect my profits I am happy to get rid of them a day later - will provide for a nice free boozy/foody weekend ahead :) I noticed the price slipped from 860 to 830 before I sold and didn't want to risk losing profits and having to hold them until it returned to it's upward trend :)

Skol

20-12-2013, 04:24 PM

3. Good possibility of Gold's double bottom holding (@1,187USD)

You might see a double bottom, I don't. Gold juniors are headed for oblivion.

You're gonna see Ron Paul lining up for food stamps.

Daytr

20-12-2013, 05:40 PM

Moosie, of course cost of production matters! I have traded gold professionally for 15 years & think I know a little about futures & production i.e. S&D equation. Short term I agree futures, ETF liquidation & shorting could push gold below cost of production but its not sustainable for any length of time. Least of all the Chinese know that even if the short term thinkers of the West don't.

NCM has just shot up from $6.99 to $7.70 in about 2 hours! I smell something. Its either massive short covering or there is an announcement due & they have a leaky boat. Wouldn't be surprised its the latter knowing NCM.

OTE=moosie_900;450898]I dont short daytr, not in my risk profile (and yes you short at the top with reversal confirmation, not the bottom!).

it matters very little what the production costs are, those making massive profits on paper see it as a plaything with squiggly lines, not a commodity to be consumed. While everyone keeps harping on about that and everyone else buying massive amounts, they miss the only key to why it is falling or rising; charts and headlines! Love it or hate it, thats how the game is played right now, and if you cant accept that I suggest you stay out.[/QUOTE]

Daytr

21-12-2013, 08:22 AM

Nice little bounce back overnight. The bounce in gold equities on Friday arvo was broad & interesting. I would say just shorts profit taking for quarter/year end, but we will see.

There has been a lot of discussion around higher US interest rates being a negative for gold. My opinion is that they are a negative for equities & anything that is a negative for equities is a positive for gold as an alternative investment rather than parking all in cash.

Between mid '04 & mid '06 US interest rates went from 1.0% to 5.5%. Gold went from circa $420 to circa $640 in the same time frame. Go figure!

Bobcat.

21-12-2013, 08:31 AM

Yes, Daytr -- money flows dictate demand and supply for stocks, bonds and precious metals alike.

As money flows out of Equities (reversing the trend over the past couple of years), we will no doubt see a rise in the price of precious metals, gold included.

You could be right about the ASX gold digger stocks lifting yesterday due to investors with shorts profit taking. Or it could be to do with support confirmed at 1187USD. We will know early next week whether this current lift above 1200USD can hold. I'm picking it will (I'm now 90% loaded).

Remember folks, the best time to buy a stock (or category of stocks) is when it is most shunned.

Daytr

21-12-2013, 09:10 AM

I'm at about 70%, looking to move to 100% this week if I see an opportunity.

Skol

21-12-2013, 09:47 AM

Remember folks, the best time to buy a stock (or category of stocks) is when it is most shunned.

Last time it got shunned for 20 years, history has a habit of repeating itself.

ETF's are swamping the market with gold no one wants, which is why the price is going to keep on going down.

JBmurc

21-12-2013, 01:55 PM

Last time it got shunned for 20 years, history has a habit of repeating itself.

ETF's are swamping the market with gold no one wants, which is why the price is going to keep on going down.

Yes Skol you could be right and Gold could trade at these prices for years with only the lowest cost producers being able to survive but to say gold could head much much lower (outside trading spike) would be as highly unlikely ,,,just like it never did last time aka sub $200oz 70's to after the crash 80's-90's $300-$400

I think at worst Gold/silver could spike below $1000oz but only very short term 2014 but like last time will trade 1200-1400 longer term .....

Skol

21-12-2013, 03:05 PM

JB,

I read a very interesting article the other day about QE and that we should all celebrate Bernanke's success with it.

QE is nothing new, the Bank of England conducted variants of it in Napoleonic times, watching the weather vane for easterly winds up the Thames. It would calibrate liquidity needs by buying gilts as the ships docked.
The Venetian Grain Office did much the same in the 14th Century. The Genoese and Flemish had their own variants.

Goldbugs promote QE as novel and inept but were plain vanilla in the inter-war years and known as open-market operations.

Raise a glass to Ben Bernanke during your Xmas holidays, it could have been a lot worse.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10526947/Farewell-QE-you-have-been-a-magnificent-success.html

Skol

22-12-2013, 02:45 AM

Thought you guys might be interested in the wave patterns comparing the 1980 and 2000 gold manias.

1980_____________________2000

+325%___________________+375%
-17%_____________________-16%
+11%____________________ +12%
-30%_____________________ -14%
+33%_____________________ +18%
-11%______________________-14%
+20%_____________________ +16%
-60%______________________ ?

If the current wave that started at US$1800 declines 60%, then 'the bottom's in' at $720.

Resident gold 'expert ' Daytr thinks that comparisons between 1980 and 2000 are 'ridiculous', but he obviously hasn't heard of the 4 most dangerous words in the investing dictionary.

"It's different this time". lol. Not very smart for a trader with '15 years of experience' and alleged profits that exceeds those of Charles Ponzi. (100% in 3 months)

A comparison of the top in 1980 (850) to bottom (310) down 63% to the 2000 bubble estimates the 2000 bubble ($1920 - 63%) will bottom at $711.

Uncanny isn't it? A double-check produces the same figure, but don't let me deter you guys from piling in to those 'cheap' goldies.

Skol

22-12-2013, 02:53 PM

Gold fell by more than three percent on Thursday to close out the session at the lowest price in more than three years.

The February gold contract closed at $1,193.60/ounce, after falling $41.40 or 3.4 percent on the day. Shares of the SPDR Gold ETF (NYSE: GLD [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]) were trading down nearly two percent for the day and are down 3.6 percent in the last three trading days.

The gold bubble burst and burst hard this year after putting in the twelfth consecutive positive year in 2012. GLD is down 29 percent in 2013 and the chart indicates there are lower prices ahead. The mining stocks have been hit even hard with the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) losing 56 percent of its value this year and today it hit a new five-year low.

See also: ETF Award Winners Announced (BKLN, PHDG)

The announcement by the Fed yesterday to begin tapering of the monthly asset purchases was viewed as a negative for the precious metals and spurred on the latest wave of selling. As the Fed begins the winding down of its quantitative easing program it should eventually boost the value of the U.S. Dollar and interest rates will move higher, this will put downward pressure on precious metals.

Another factor to consider has to do with the reasons why gold would be in an investors’ portfolio today or for the long-term. If the largest amount of central bank intervention ever was not enough to keep the rally in gold going, what will spur on the next wave of buying for the precious metal?

The days of gold as a currency alternative appear to be over. The days of gold as a safe haven have also disappeared. And when all asset classes are analyzed for a portfolio, gold is one of the least attractive options. The combination of all factors do not bode well for gold and its investors.

Investors that are interested in profiting from a falling gold price could consider the DB Gold Short ETN (NYSE: DGZ). The ETN will track the daily inverse movement of the price of gold futures. Today the ETN is rallying 1.8 percent and is at the best level in five months and is on the verge of a major breakout.

In the end, the fundamental reasons to own gold are no longer apparent and the technicals are flashing a sell signal. It is time to let gold complete its pullback and revisit at a later time.

Skol

23-12-2013, 12:02 PM

Have a Merry Xmas goldbugs despite being somewhat more impecunious than last year.

And don't forget those 12 Golden Rules of Goldbuggery. Ho Ho Ho.

The Rules of Goldbuggery

1. Gold is a Currency: This is rule number 1. It is not a decorative or industrial metal, it is a permanent store of value, as dictated by Greeks in Lydia around 700 B.C. And, it shall be ever thus.

2. The price of gold cannot fall, it can only be manipulated lower: When gold’s price falls, it is an unnatural act. It can only occur as the result of an international cabal of Central Bankers and politicians. Its a conspiracy, and we know who the guilty parties are.

3. If the price of gold is rising, it is doing so despite enormous and desperate efforts by manipulators to prevent the rise: This is the corollary to the prior Rule of Gold manipulation. Gold runs up despite the overwhelming opposition to it.

4. The world MUST return to the Gold Standard one day: It is inevitable that we will return to a Gold Standard. We all know this to be true. When we compare the size of the money supply to past amounts when there was a Gold Standard, we can derive prices of Gold in the $7,000, $10,000 even $15,000. Hence, we know its cheap even at $2,000.

5. Central Bankers are printing money relentlessly, and this can only drive Gold prices higher: NOTE: You must ignore, for the moment, that Gold has not gone higher for the past 2 years as Central Banks around the world have ramped up QE. This only means that ultimately, Gold will go much much higher.

6. Gold works whether the economy is good or bad: When we have a red hot economy, Gold is your hedge against inflation. When we have a bad economy, Gold is a safe harbor against collapse. It is a one way trade that never fails!

7. Gold will survive after the world economy crumbles: Gold is the ultimate currency, as it has a value that will survive even after the whole world tumbles around you. Get yourself some gold coins and a Glock and you will be just fine when the whole world goes to ****. We welcome the era envisioned in the movie Mad Max.

8. Never admit that Gold is essentially a sucker’s bet: Never discuss how in the last century, gold has run up only be to trounced in repeated massive sell offs (always blame rule #2 for this). Do not discuss how this has happened in 1915-20, 1941, 1947, 1951-66, 1974-76 1981, 1983-85, 1987-2000 and 2008.

9. Gold is a rejection of government, and their control of fiat money and finance: There are no printing presses that produce gold, it is finite, natural and God created. How much we scrape out of the ground each year is limited, and the only variable to the old equation. (Just ignore Man’s natural tendency to organize into to City-States over the past 12,000 years).

10. All Gold discussions must contain ominous macro forecasts: Your description of why Gold is going higher must consist of spurious correlations, unprovable predictions, and a guarded expectation of bad things in the future. Avoid empirical data at all costs.

11. Gold is always rallying in one currency or another: Sure, it may be down 30% in Dollars, the reserve currency it is priced in, but you can always find a currency falling faster than it does and claim you own it in that denomination. Last week, it was up in Japanese Yen. This week, it is up in Zimbabwe dollars.

12. China & India know the value of Gold; the Western world does not: The massive buying of gold by consumers in Chindia reflects the culture, intelligence and investing savvy of the people in these countries. The West doesn’t get it, and it is their loss.

Bonus rule: Never admit Gold might be falling because it trades on human emotions and psychology and has no intrinsic value whatsoever.

FarmerGeorge

23-12-2013, 12:56 PM

Skol that post is 'gold' - your own work or link to someone else? I'm on the bullish side of gold currently but that doesn't change the fact that that's a great post - I'm sure we all recognise most, if not all, or those sentiments in the market commentary from time to time. Hopefully not too many in ourselves :) Happy Christmas!

Skol

24-12-2013, 11:30 AM

SPDR Gold Trust down 9 tonnes overnight, all those lucky chinese buying tons of gold at bargain basement prices.
I wonder if it's occurred to them that they've already lost hundreds of billions?

JBmurc

24-12-2013, 11:45 AM

SPDR Gold Trust down 9 tonnes overnight, all those lucky chinese buying tons of gold at bargain basement prices.
I wonder if it's occurred to them that they've already lost hundreds of billions?

I don,t think there buying for a short term trade like the paper traders
But very long term much like India buyers who past down gold through
Generations .... Also buying round cost is hardly a bad purchase ...

Skol

24-12-2013, 11:50 AM

I don,t think there buying for a short term trade like the paper traders
But very long term much like India buyers who past down gold through
Generations .... Also buying round cost is hardly a bad purchase ...

Perhaps you can tell me about the relationship between cost and the price of gold?

Daytr

24-12-2013, 12:30 PM

I just posted this on the Aussie HC, but thought we could also run the same here. Skol, as its Christmas, I will even include your pick!

Not sure if anyone does this, but lets run a comp for the closest pick for the price of gold as at the end of 2014.
The winner will be the nearest to the average of the AM & PM fix on the last trading day of 2014.

Keep this simple.
Rules are.

1) You only get one pick
2) No commentary of arguments other than a greeting or merry Christmas etc, to be posted just the POG in USD. If you post comments or engage in commentary your pick will be disqualified!
3) Your price pick must be entered on this thread by midnight 31st Dec 2013.

Prize is the glory, pure glory!

If anyone else already runs something like this I am happy to leave to them, just let me know.

Merry Christmas all.

Daytr

Daytr

24-12-2013, 12:33 PM

My pick $1398

Valuegrowth

24-12-2013, 01:31 PM

When "normal people" get in something professionals will get out.

Next 12 to 24 months USD is up. Gold will go down to $600 level. Gold is a commodity like any other commodities and yields zero return. There are a lot of assets out there that can offer and will offer higher yield. Gold has no industrial value whatsoever except for the jewelry Indian market. Gold went up due to pure speculation cash moving from one asset to another on a global scale. Gold isn't an investment it's a pure speculative move. Most gold buyers jumped blindly on gold speculating on "upcoming hyper- inflation. We should not forget that even in the 600s gold will still be 50% higher than in 2004. For mid and long term players it is time to go behind out of favour boring commodities. These types of commodities will have demand in all types of situations. Can anybody postpone eating and drinking in inflationary or non- inflationary environment? Even during war people cannot wait without eating and drinking. They cannot eat gold and silver. What about two children policy in China? One thing I like to mention here. There will be great demand for Australian and New Zealand meat from China in the coming decade. As a commodity meat will shine in the coming decade. Even for kangaroo meat there will have great demand from China.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security,commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Daytr

24-12-2013, 02:16 PM

digger

24-12-2013, 02:23 PM

1460
The rest is just rubbish as computer requirements of so many characters.

Bobcat.

24-12-2013, 02:43 PM

Alright, count me in on this crystal ball gazing....

Consolidation to 1,420USD late October but down to 1,370USD by year-end.

Skol

24-12-2013, 02:45 PM

Hi Marketwinner, your post is wrong on so many levels. Not in regards your price prediction as that is anyone's guess & each have their own view. You are right you can't eat gold & silver (well unless you are in some very fancy French restaurant!) go figure. Yet gold has been a fascination of man for thousands of years & the Chinese love the stuff. Not saying meat won't do well, like the movie Trading Places, by all means go long pork bellies! Where your argument quickly goes off the rails is you say gold is a commodity like all other commodities., when clearly its not. Central Banks don't hold massive amounts of gold because they want to ensure there is enough supply for the jewelry market & electronics for the next millennium. Nor do the super wealthy! Kerry Packer was rumored to have gold bars in his office & a gun! If gold was just another commodity why is the majority of it stored in vaults. Your argument is overly simplistic. Perhaps you are right re the price, although I certainly don't agree, but it wont be because of the argument you have given.

Let me dissect this argument.

"a fascination of man for thousands of years". Goldbugs maybe, and it was used for transactions hundreds of years ago but not now.

"Chinese love the stuff". Only because they've just been allowed to purchase it and they're losing billions.

"Central banks don't hold massive amounts of gold". They do, 19% of all the gold on Earth.

"Cenral banks want to ensure there is enough supply for the jewellery market and electronics for the next millenium". Hardly, they couldn't care less, a substitute for gold will soon be found if necessary. Dimwitted central banksters have collectively lost $550 billion.

"why is gold stored in vaults"? A glimpse of the obvious, because it will be stolen if it isn't.

Daytr has been reading too many hard money newsletters. lol

Daytr

24-12-2013, 03:02 PM

Skol, I read your post as I thought you might be putting a price prediction in. Alas, I should have known better. You may wish to re-read my post because as usual you have taken it out of context. This is what I said. 'Central Banks don't hold massive amounts of gold because they want to ensure there is enough supply for the jewelry market & electronics for the next millennium.' I know its difficult Skol, but maybe actually put some thought into it before you post. What I am saying is that the hold massive amounts of the stuff for a very good reason, such as a reserve or store of wealth or which ever way you want to look at it. They don't hold it because of its commodity value, they hold it because it is considered precious & it is accepted anywhere when the crap hits the fan & your currency is going through the floor.

Skol

24-12-2013, 03:09 PM

Daytr,

"""They don't hold it because of its commodity value, they hold it because it is considered precious & it is accepted anywhere when the crap hits the fan & your currency is going through the floor. """

That's not what Ben Bernanke says, he says the US owns it because it's 'traditional'. And the US owns the most. If they're so smart and hold it because of currency fluctuations why are central banksters losing hundreds of billions, like $550 bill? I'll tell you why, because the university-educated central banksters are no smarter than the goldbugs who are losing Schiffloads themselves.

My guess is $955.

clip

24-12-2013, 03:11 PM

My guess is $1170

Daytr

24-12-2013, 03:41 PM

The US owned gold long before Bernanke was born & they will own it long after he is dead. Thanks Skol, your prediction is logged, now I can continue ignoring your posts for at least 12 months! :cool:

Daytr,

"""They don't hold it because of its commodity value, they hold it because it is considered precious & it is accepted anywhere when the crap hits the fan & your currency is going through the floor. """

That's not what Ben Bernanke says, he says the US owns it because it's 'traditional'. And the US owns the most. If they're so smart and hold it because of currency fluctuations why are central banksters losing hundreds of billions, like $550 bill? I'll tell you why, because the university-educated central banksters are no smarter than the goldbugs who are losing Schiffloads themselves.

My guess is $955.

corran

24-12-2013, 04:31 PM

$1555
merrrry christmas

Skol

24-12-2013, 04:33 PM

As another year's end approaches here's another 4 gold 'experts' who have got it wrong.

Samuel “Bud” Kress: $6,000 (by 2014);
Shamik Bhose: $3,000 (by 2014)
Robert McEwen: $5,000 (by 2012 – 2014);
Robert Lloyd-George: $5,000 (by 2014)

Anyway dudes, it's time to kiss your asses goodbye, 'expert' Marc Faber says the US economy will collapse by the end of 2013.
More on this on the 1/1/2014.

JBmurc

24-12-2013, 09:46 PM

With the amount of DOOM and GLOOM round Gold of late I'd say we will see it move to spike lower early 2014 (1000oz-900oz) the late comers joining in etc ......

#1-This will lead to mass of Major Mine closures esp some of the higher cost deep underground operations that won't be re-opened till Gold is much higher .(water damage costs of pumping out etc)....this is of course in direct contrast to what's happening in global gold demand which has never been higher records breaking....

-The Major Trading banks// funds that have made billions from the Short trade will close out and head towards the long side because of the above ^^^ of course the public will be the last to know of this move..till mid year IMHO after they have filled their boots

--Gold will see it's bottom early to end 2014 much higher my pick 1605oz USD

Valuegrowth

25-12-2013, 01:56 AM

Thank you for the discussions. I respect your opinions. I give my opinion based on my homework. We must have idea about market cycles, business cycles and currency cycles to reduce our risks.

Boom and Bust will be common in the coming two decades. Unless we find once and for all solution to the financial system we cannot expect sustainability in the financial and commodity world. We have to accept we cannot expect continuous rise in any asset, stock, commodity or currency.

NZD and AUD will plunge sooner than later and will adjust to the correct value.
It is time to go behind attractive opportunities in global stock, commodity and currency markets. We may see shift in markets sooner than later. We had bull markets in some countries including Philippines especially in 2013. Now Philippine market is having correction. We had bear markets in some markets during last two years and we will see bull markets in those markets in 2014 and 2015.

In any market be it developed, emerging or frontier market we need seasonal adjustments to our portfolios. I believe this is the time to readjust portfolios, do some rotation and identity next winners in the commodity, stock and currency markets globally. Globally some markets, sectors, commodities and currencies are under valued. Similarly some markets, some sectors, commodities and currencies are over valued.

We may have correction in some overvalued markets during next six months. It is time to identify next winners. Gradual tapering is good for the world economy.

Which markets including frontier markets, currencies, commodities and sectors will have strong uptrend next? I am doing my home work now. I will talk more about gold later. These days I am looking for out of favour boring commodities. I already said that I am bearish on gold, corn, soy bean etc. Now I am bearish on NZD and AUD as well.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Skol

25-12-2013, 08:15 AM

Bobcat.

25-12-2013, 09:06 AM

The PM craze is over, probably for a decade or two. USD up next year, most others down vs USD. The taper will take care of that. NZD will probably remain persistently high because the NZ economy is on a tear and dairy farmers are creaming it. One I know is making $400k/month.

Most commodities will still do well, meat, milk, iron ore etc as the world economy improves.

We'll disagree on this one, Skol.

The Fed has IMO no intention to taper through 2014. But they crafted very carefully a statement to get people thinking that way. Read Bernanke's actual statement:

"If incoming data broadly support the Fed outlook for Employment and Inflation we will likely reduce asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings."

That's a big IF - nothing committed. Yellen has wide open her window of opportunity to continue feeding her Master Banksters' coffers right through 2014 and beyond. I'm expecting this charade (the greatest Ponzi scheme on earth) to continue unabated until about the 3rd quarter (it could well be much earlier if inflation rears its ugly head) and then the house of cards comes crashing down...watch out.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...ember/4078769/

Meanwhile, I'm managing my portfolio's risk with a large % (>60%) in PM stocks.

Re NZ, the economy's stable and has some growth (GDP at 1.4%, higher than forecasts of 1.1%) but our account deficit is not looking healthy (-4.8B !). Fonterra is definitely going to suffer some more due to international PR and product safety concerns (and French court publicity). I'm no longer bullish on NZ dairy.

USD recovery will be short-lived IMO.

But let's see - neither of us are annointed prophets. The Past is history, the Future a mystery, and the here and now a gift from God (that is why it is called the 'Present'). Have a Happy C.

BC

Skol

25-12-2013, 10:22 AM

Yep, while I wait for the lamb on the BBQ we'll reflect on the fact that goldbugs persistently said there will be no taper. And there is, and Marc Faber who's wrong again said "there will be QE56".

The Fed will wind in the spending and one of the biggest booms in history will surely follow one of the biggest busts as punters regain their confidence and start spending.

Gold will continue its demise as interest rates rise and the taper continues, PM's will fade to a distant investor memory.

Skol

25-12-2013, 11:19 AM

Enjoy skol, hope you're slow roasting her. We have a 5kg hog to cut up. Time to put on some weight! :)

Enjoy, merrry xmas to you guys.

corran

25-12-2013, 11:47 AM

But let's see - neither of us are annointed prophets. The Past is history, the Future a mystery, and the here and now a gift from God (that is why it is called the 'Present'). Have a Happy C.

BC

Hear hear BC, great post!

It's fun to mull over future price predictions and toss ideas and theories around but the future is a mystery and anyone who thinks they can predict it 100% is deluding themselves.

Hope you guys are having a great day in Aus or NZ or wherever you are. I'm in Scotland, big storms over here. Our flight from the Netherlands got delayed due to the flaps getting 'busted' earlier in the day due to high winds but we made it after a typical windy wellington style landing :-)

Skol

26-12-2013, 10:36 AM

Miners not very optimistic for next year, they got it badly wrong this year.

As for the miners themselves, according to PwC’s recent gold, silver, and copper price report, they aren’t expecting the gold price to pick up in 2014 either -- only 47% of gold producers expect the price to increase in the next 12 months, compared to 88% last year

Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/precious-metals/articles/2014-May-Not-Be-Nice-to/12/19/2013/id/53107#ixzz2oWbgCdvi

Skol

26-12-2013, 11:13 AM

Here are the 'experts' gold forecast for 2013. As you can see most of them weren't even close.

My end of years forecast was $1325.

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/?page_id=152&title=forecast_2013

Skol

26-12-2013, 02:01 PM

An average end-of-year 2014 gold forecast of 11 banks and a multitude of LBMA gold 'experts' yields $1253.

If we apply the average error by the banks and 'experts' for the last 2 years (-28%) the answer is $902.

Valuegrowth

26-12-2013, 03:12 PM

Skol I agree with your following statement.

Most commodities will still do well, meat, milk, iron ore etc as the world economy improves.

Stock markets are breaking new high. Dollar doesn't seem to go down. Consumer spending is looking good. Gold is experiencing its worst year in 32 years. I do expect 52-week lows in precious metals in the near future. With this end of year tax loss selling, I did expect some further declines in the precious metals.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Daytr

27-12-2013, 02:43 PM

Skol

27-12-2013, 04:35 PM

To be honest as long as Aussie gold does well, I don't really care where USD gold is priced. In saying that I still think USD gold goes higher over time & I'm still sticking to Marchish as my turning point.

Rule No. 11 applies in this case.

11. Gold is always rallying in one currency or another: Sure, it may be down 30% in Dollars, the reserve currency it is priced in, but you can always find a currency falling faster than it does and claim you own it in that denomination. Last week, it was up in Japanese Yen. This week, it is up in Zimbabwe dollars.

JBmurc

27-12-2013, 08:18 PM

Rule No. 11 applies in this case.

11. Gold is always rallying in one currency or another: Sure, it may be down 30% in Dollars, the reserve currency it is priced in, but you can always find a currency falling faster than it does and claim you own it in that denomination. Last week, it was up in Japanese Yen. This week, it is up in Zimbabwe dollars.

Really this is a ASX thread from what I've read most of us poster that hold the odd PM share hold them on the ASX ....EPS is worked out in AUD ...so what the Gold Silver etc price is in AUD really does matter

Daytr

28-12-2013, 03:17 PM

Moosie, So if they were wrong in 2013, perhaps they will be wrong again in 2014...

Even the eternal goldbug Aden sisters (who were 100% wrong in 2013) are calling for 50% of capital in equities and only 10% in miners (along with 10% cash; not very faithful eh?!?!):

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-12-27/experts-ron-paul-keith-fitzgerald-aden-sisters-gary-wagner-iiTrader-grandich-outlook-2014.html#

Bet they will continue calling for backing the truck up all through 2014 while PoG slides inexorably downwards. Meanwhile, they're 50% in equities will keep them happy as Larry. Then, if it turns, they will say they were right all along (a lot like some people we know!)

Man they are ugly (just for the record).

Bobcat.

31-12-2013, 11:17 AM

We were always going to get profit taking last night and tonight as fund managers close out their books. I suspect we will see greater levels of profit taking in Equities later today and tonight (in Asian, European and then US markets) than we have seen in Gold and Silver over the past 24 hours.

Once the Equities bubble pumped up by 2013's larger than expected US corporate profits begins to vibrate and threaten to pop, investors will run scared to precious metals (retailers are typically slower to cotton on and sell after the pop). Smart money will begin moving back into Gold (my guess is early January) led by physical buying which we are not yet seeing but IMO will very soon.

The past week's slow rise in the POG was always going to be corrected before rising again. Tonight's trading will be interesting: if the POG rises from around 1290 (and silver from around 19.5) then support is confirmed, and the next target is a breach through 1220 (silver: 20.20).

Many ASX PM stocks have been resilient with nice rises over the past two weeks. IMO, that pivot and upward trend still has legs.

BC

peat

31-12-2013, 11:23 AM

Man they are ugly (just for the record).

What a horrible and unnecessary thing to say dude.

Daytr

31-12-2013, 01:28 PM

Last chance to get your pick for the POG for 31/Dec 2014 !:eek2:

skid

31-12-2013, 05:47 PM

He's still a young buck peat

peat

01-01-2014, 12:58 AM

they're not even particularly ugly.

Skol

01-01-2014, 08:06 AM

It's 2014 and Marc Faber's prediction that the US economy would collapse before the end of 2013 falls on its ar*e.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0E7QmP539M

skid

01-01-2014, 09:59 AM

One thing Ive got to say about you Skol--You're devoted--8:06am on New Years day:):)

Skol

02-01-2014, 07:02 AM

One thing Ive got to say about you Skol--You're devoted--8:06am on New Years day:):)

That's because the local time was 1106 where I was.

skid

02-01-2014, 10:07 AM

ahh--that explains it-------Dont get to sunburnt or frostbite whatever the case may be:)
and if your in the States..be careful with that computer
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/technology/news/article.cfm?c_id=5&objectid=11179715

skid

03-01-2014, 10:02 AM

Alot believe that in terms of the share market and Gold--One comes at the expense of the other--as we saw last year with the huge gains in the share market and a likewise drop in gold.
That massive drop you talk about would most likely have to come on the back of the share market continuing its massive gains.

From Kico--
Gold fell sharply during 2013 as equities repeatedly hit record highs. Analysts cited a rotation in which investors reallocated from commodities such as precious metals and into stocks during the last year, and some had suggested any eventual correction in equities might in turn lead to some reallocation back into metals.

About the time the Comex gold pit was closing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by around 130 points and S&P 500 was down by around 15. This helped gold bounce despite a stronger tone in the U.S. dollar, which often hurts metals.

So it depends which you put your money on

If your looking to buy Gold producer SHARES then it gets a wee bit more complicated IMO

Daytr

03-01-2014, 10:22 AM

I know what you are getting at Skid, but I don't think this is the case & we have seen to date that gold producers seem to actually out perform the POG both on the way up & the way down. Gold producers generally seem to have turned a corner. The dogs & I wont say who I think they are were still under-performing well until yesterday at least. However quality producers & explorers haven't revisited their lows since the gold slam, Troy probably being the exception.

Daytr

03-01-2014, 10:26 AM

Here are the picks for the POG at the end of 2014. Not many entrants unfortunately.

Lets see who can take the crowning glory!
Cheers Daytr

NZ Picks POG
Name

$ 1398
Daytr

$ 1,460
Digger

$ 1,370
Bobcat

$ 970
Skol

$ 1,170
Clip

$ 1,555
corran

Daytr

03-01-2014, 12:07 PM

Sorry, that's done Moosie.

JBmurc

03-01-2014, 03:15 PM

Daytr

03-01-2014, 03:48 PM

Sorry knew I should have re-checked! All included now. Cheers DT

Daytr

04-01-2014, 07:33 AM

Looking at the 1 year chart it looks like we have a double bottom now in place, even on the 5 year there is evidence, however probably need gold to crack $1260 to be confirmed. I always prefer a 2 year chart for this sort of thing, but couldn't find one quickly. Obviously it would display something in between the two & more than likely confirm the double bottom. We should see gold challenge that $1260 area for mine but it needs to crack that. There is small lines of resistance above that, but the really big resistance kicks in at $1380-$1400 area as I see it.
Cheers
Daytr
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au0365nyb.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au1825nyb.gif

airedale

05-01-2014, 10:21 AM

If it is not too late to enter the POG comp. I will guess at $1320. I just took the 6 listed guesses and took their average.

Missed me out Daytr my pick was $1605oz

Daytr

05-01-2014, 11:06 AM

Yeah I don't think anyone will mind airdale. Cheers Daytr

Stranger_Danger

05-01-2014, 02:27 PM

If I'm not too late, I'll go $1720.

Daytr

06-01-2014, 09:43 AM

Ok gold pick comp officially closed. Good to have a few more picks in there. We are a bullish bunch, but not as much as the HC picks.
Our average target is $1332, on HC it was $1703 & that was by removing the highest & lowest picks!

Full list of picks below.

NZ Picks POG
Name

$1,398
Daytr

$1,460
Digger

$1,370
Bobcat

$ 970
Skol

$1,170
Clip

$1,555
corran

$ 850
Moosie_900

$1,605
JB Murc

$1,320
airdale

$1,234
Yankiwi

$1,720
Stranger Danger

Valuegrowth

06-01-2014, 10:09 AM

Different analysts have different ideas on gold. According to some it is expected to see modest recovery in 2014. On the other hand some are very bearish on gold and it is expected go down as low as around $600. It is very interesting. I believe there could be some bull commodities in 2014. Moreover there are attractive opportunities in global stocks markets than investing in gold market. It is also expected that USD could become bull currency in 2014 and 2015. It will be the game changer in many ways. I am one of the big bulls for USD and one of the big bears for both AUD and NZD. No commodity will stay high or low for ever. As I said now it is going to be different ball game. It is expected that some sectors are going to benefit lot in the coming years. We could see emerging commodities, stocks and currencies. Have a great 2014.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

JimHickey

06-01-2014, 11:47 AM

Can anyone recommend some good books on gold? I want to get a much better understanding into what drives the price.

Skol

06-01-2014, 12:32 PM

Can anyone recommend some good books on gold? I want to get a much better understanding into what drives the price.

I can tell you exactly what drives the price.

Psychology and emotion. You don't need any books.

Well, maybe one, it's called 'Gold Bubble' by Yoni Jacobs.

Daytr

06-01-2014, 12:40 PM

JH, all I would say is that you want something that it is pretty up to date i.e. written in the last year or two. The market is changing constantly & big changes at that, such as the advent of ETFs, China's appetite, the change in TOCOM & restrictions in India to name a few. It certainly isn't a simple S&D equation when it comes to gold, there is more sentiment attached to gold than most commodities & then there is its monetary / reserve status of gold to consider. Gold didn't make sense to me for a long time & I traded it professionally for 15 years then I came to the realization its not necessarily logical & that's when I became fascinated with gold & the behavior it creates in people.

Can anyone recommend some good books on gold? I want to get a much better understanding into what drives the price.

Daytr

06-01-2014, 03:00 PM

Seems to evidence of good Asian buying. Gold has popped both today & last week on the Asian open.

Daytr

06-01-2014, 03:15 PM

I see it as $1260 being the level Moosie.

Daytr

07-01-2014, 09:03 AM

There was a massive sell order put through last night that created a flash crash. 11k contracts pushed through saw the market drop $30 in minutes only to bounce back equally as quickly. According to CME it wasn't a mistake or fat finger trade.
If this wasn't a mistake & it was a hedge fund trying to force the market lower they will obviously be very disappointed & they have used a lot of ammunition for no gain. Perhaps they prevented the market going higher, however the risk is now they may have to cover at a loss. Again, if it wasn't a mistake, it suggests that someone else or multiple positions used the opportunity to close out shorts. Either way the bounce back appears very bullish as for the market to respond like it did with such a volume of selling is quite remarkable.

Skol

07-01-2014, 10:27 AM

Daytr

07-01-2014, 10:54 AM

Well I suppose POG was pretty close to resistance & in 2013 this sort of strategy worked & you would have probably seen gold down $50 & then follow through from there. However with gold $60 above a major support line in $1180 & quite a few miners struggling to make money at these levels I think its hard to get bang for your buck, unlike when it was above $1650 etc & the market was still long & miners had plenty of margin above costs. To me this is big, as gold didn't falter. Perhaps what worked in 2013 isn't going to work in 2014.

Terrible strategy trying to force the market lower when all indicators are pointing up! Trader obviously not a chartist or ever heard the term "the trend is your friend".

Skol

07-01-2014, 10:58 AM

Well I suppose POG was pretty close to resistance & in 2013 this sort of strategy worked & you would have probably seen gold down $50 & then follow through from there. However with gold $60 above a major support line in $1180 & quite a few miners struggling to make money at these levels I think its hard to get bang for your buck, unlike when it was above $1650 etc & the market was still long & miners had plenty of margin above costs. To me this is big, as gold didn't falter. Perhaps what worked in 2013 isn't going to work in 2014.

Here's what one trader said, it was mistake, but goldbugs love to make a mountain out of a molehill.
=====================

That's possible, but it would be a huge risk, unless you're talking about someone playing with huge funds—perhaps a bank." Ilczyszyn commented. "There will always be conspiracy theories. But for me, mistakes happen, and that's just the way it goes."

peat

07-01-2014, 02:05 PM

5276

... and pictorially, even on the one minute candle it was mostly wick. volume , while large at that moment is not unusual.

silver also had a momentary spaz, but not as much as gold.

JBmurc

07-01-2014, 02:17 PM

Skol

07-01-2014, 02:28 PM

Fact is 2014 is shaping up to be yet another record in bullion sales esp. from the East buying... some 1000 ton more gold than they did only a few years ago....and if we believe the media PM are meant to be heading further south because "It's All GOOD"

You've got that one wrong, chinese buying fell 42% from October to November.

http://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1393461/chinas-gold-imports-drop-42pc

Daytr

07-01-2014, 03:59 PM

May not have to wait that long Moosie. Looks good for a crack at $1250 tonight.

Still tracking up today, another retest of $1250 looks set soon. Waiting for the breakout of $1280 and "rally night" on Thursday ;)

JBmurc

07-01-2014, 05:11 PM

You've got that one wrong, chinese buying fell 42% from October to November.

http://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1393461/chinas-gold-imports-drop-42pc

Geez talk about mis-leading title China imports drop 42% yet read the short article and they are talking about one month and just through HK ..the two comments at the bottom sum it up...

#1-"Of course, what do you expect? Shenzhen stopped all the NDF players from playing around with the gold bullion import and export!"

#2-Misleading title. These are just imports from Hong Kong, for 1 month (November). A total of 54.8 tonnes less that month. But the Shanghai exchange was drained of 55 tons in one week alone recently.
****www.ingoldwetrust.ch/sge-delivery-16-20-december-55-tons-2128-tons-ytd

Cracks me up the whole Anti-PM media drive of late they never want to talk about the records set at most National Bullion Mints during 2013 only how bad it's going to be if you continue to hold or buy..

Nobody esp major media can explain the price reaction in view of the insatiable physical demand from the east. The only possible explanation is a divide between physical and paper gold. Physical gold is been hypothecated for paper gold and sold multiple times, creating the illusion of more offer, while the physical
holdings are diminishing. Read the fine print on your Gold ETF, when push comes to shove, you don’t own gold, you own a piece of paper.

Skol

07-01-2014, 05:15 PM

JB,

My info came from the South China Morning Post, not a miniscule, suspect goldbug website.

Daytr

07-01-2014, 05:51 PM

Yet Skol, you managed to misrepresent what the article actually said.
Wouldn't expect anything less from the Skol!

JB,

My info came from the South China Morning Post, not a miniscule, suspect goldbug website.

Skol

07-01-2014, 09:12 PM

JBmurc

07-01-2014, 09:37 PM

UK car sales and NZ car sales have both hit 5 year highs, it's all good. I went to look at a new Holden Colorado LTZ ute the other day, none available at the moment, the dealership sold 24 in December.

Yep, the Great Depression is on us. lol

You do know Holden will be no more by 2017 the last year your buy an aussie made holden (or any holden for than matter unless they make them in the Gold loving East where most production of auto have been heading for decades )

Skol

07-01-2014, 10:09 PM

JBmurc

07-01-2014, 11:22 PM

They reckon Holden will still be around but made elsewhere. I've also been interested in a Ford Ranger Wildtrak, but each time I drop into a dealership they never have one, all sold in advance. I've never actually seen one.

Numbers keep popping up on my iPhone, latest German employment numbers better than expected, US car sales up 8% for the year. Gold's headed for the skids.

Yeah I agree 100%.... tens of millions of oz of PM's are being soaked up not just in Investment form in record numbers but in Industrial demand Iphones,Ipads,auto ECU's + 1,000s more different Applications now Gold not so much with the biggest buyer the Jewelry industries which soaks up round 2000tons p.a(which is as I'm sure you can understand is a vast amount of the 2600-2700 tons per year of world production) but with current low prices production is falling and if it stays round these levels whats left of the Gold mining industry will be doing well to keep the Jewelry market happy

I know your not a fan of facts but here is some on Gold facts

http://www.goldfacts.org/en/faqs/#q_how_big_is_the_market_for_gold_jewelry

But personal Silver will be the PM that will really fly on the back of booming demand....

you really would have to have your head in the sand if you think the PM's are just a doomsday investment

Skol

08-01-2014, 08:31 AM

JBmurc

08-01-2014, 01:08 PM

Not to worry, they're digging it out of the ground like never before.

Record Production:While demand for gold is fragile currently, the sector has come up with record production this year leading to about25% fallin prices. As per Reuters, despite falling prices, gold miners are binging on volumes to improve revenues in order to spread out its huge fixed asset base. Analysts are expecting gold mining output to cross 3,000 tons a year for the first time in 2014. There is little chance of production cuts before 2015.

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/can-gold-mining-etfs-dazzle-in-2014-etf-news-and-commentary-cm314522#ixzz2pk7Dpjab

Yes production could well be a record this year on many factors one being the miners going to their higher grades resources to help lower
costs to keep shareholders happy(esp when it comes to raising extra Capital to survive) also trying to increase through put to also help keep the companies afloat ....but this is pure short term so many producers have ceased exploration and likely cut corners to keep costs down....all pure short term but will damage miners mid-longer term once their resource grades decrease and mines are exhausted much faster unless PM prices head far higher ....the GOLD Fields CEO stated years ago to replace their current minable reserves going forward would cost so much to be uneconomic unless the Gold price was north of $2000oz ..so many miners just won't have the funds to replace reserves till a higher PM prices
From memory it takes round 10yrs to take a green field exploration target to a producing mine....that along with 100mill+ spend on the small mines before seeing as much if any metal produced,,,,,,,, then ramp-up can last years of teething issues (I know as two of my producers have and continue to have issues)
we Know DEMAND is currently Huge ...But Production is far from strong esp as Huge Capital is needed to continue ..not increase but to continue to meet demand p.a and as we know PM miners/explorers are seen as a TOXIC investment this days ..worst sentiment in decades

Bobcat.

08-01-2014, 10:53 PM

I'm drawing a trendline from its low of 1180USD on 23rd Dec through 1200USD a week later, through 1222USD 10 days later (tonight). If it does rally off that trendline tonight, it's bullish short-term; if not, it's bearish and likely to soon retest 1180USD.

I'm confident of a rally tonight to the upside to test 1265USD next week (but I'm aware that this is the view of a contrarian swimming against what is now a very strong current of opinion that's travelling in the opposite direction).

BC

Discl: loaded, with 85% of my portfolio in precious metals.

Bobcat.

09-01-2014, 08:04 AM

Corporate USA's 4th quarter earnings season begins soon, running to the end of January. Most analysts are expecting another outstanding quarter of corporate profits (driven by low interest rates). If correct, this will pump up again the Equities market later this month, but before that happens, IMO, we are likely to first witness :
1. an overdue Equities market correction
2. a corresponding lift in the price of gold to test the Bear's established downward trendline (at somewhere between 1265USD and 1275USD).

Meanwhile, there is increasing support for Gold at prices above 1200USD (confirmed earlier this morning with a bounce off 1220USD), and so I would only be getting nervous if it breaks 1220 to test 1200 again.

I'm trading short-term to a gradual lift over the next week or so.

BC

Daytr

09-01-2014, 09:34 AM

Well there has been a nice bounce back in POG in late trade, now trading $1227. It looked pretty dismal only an hour ago.

I just posted this on HC so thought I may as well post here. I'd be interested in your thoughts.

The US is finally showing real signs of recovery. And so it should after having trillions of dollars of stimulus thrown at it & zero interest rates. The US has also been enjoying a discount on its energy price due to the gas & oil sands revolution in North America & the inability to export product. For argument's sake lets say the US economy does continue to improve.

Does the USD strengthen & if so at a quicker rate versus gold or the AUD?

One of the main factors of the US very slow recovery has been contributed to its cheap energy. There is now a lot of talk that the US will accelerate the ability to export energy & gas in particular. This should negatively impact the world gas price. Other countries such as Russia & Iran among others are also looking to ramp up gas exports & then there is Australia of course.

I was on the periphery of the funding deals for some of the massive gas projects being built in Australia & my fear was that supply globally was going to ramp up dramatically in the coming years & what did this mean for the economics of these projects.

Being mostly USD flow based projects perhaps the impact isn't so big on the AUD, however if any were mothballed it would certainly have an impact. Lower prices will also mean any of the Aussie based stake holders will have less retained earnings.

So back to the question. Where is the AUD from now & where is gold?

So where is AUD/Gold?http://hotcopper.com.au/images/share.gif (http://hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=279&msgid=12793407&v=300&pubid=ra-5204535253dfaa05)

blueswan

09-01-2014, 04:21 PM

There is good article in Bloomberg that the bigger Gold Cos ( Barrick, NEM and Goldcorp etc ) might be buying single project gold mining companies to improve their efficiencies. They have the funds now compared to previous year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-08/gold-mining-deals-seen-rebounding-on-price-discount-comm.html

Daytr

09-01-2014, 04:50 PM

Thanks blueswan. Personally I think its a stretch & certainly would be against the trend of majors selling single assets to medium/junior producers. Its pretty rare a major can get the efficiencies of a junior on small producing mines. If anything I think we will see more mines being off-loaded by the majors to medium or junior producers at pretty damned good prices. We may see some very large M&A transactions & NCM has to be a target with their massive amount of reserves, but you also inherit $4Bln+ worth of debt.

JBmurc

09-01-2014, 08:50 PM

From Scoops La

How Much Gold Does China's Government Hold Right Now?
By Matt Badiali, editor Badiali's Daily Resource Update
We all know it's going to happen. It's not a matter of 'if', but rather 'when'. China's currency, the yuan, will be backed by gold. And when that happens, it will likely push the US dollar off the top of the heap.
Europe and China already have a $57 billion deal set up so that they can do business together without resorting to US dollars. That's the largest deal of its kind for China. If China plans to back the yuan with gold, it certainly won't be the last.
The trouble is, China's official gold holding was just 1,054 metric tonnes in 2009. That's nowhere near enough gold to back its currency. The country spent the last five years importing tonnes (literally) of gold.
It imported about 645 tonnes from Hong Kong alone. China's domestic gold miners produced 3,072 tonnes of gold since 2004. That means the country has nearly 4,000 tonnes of gold for sure. But it's likely much higher.
According to Thomson Reuters, China is the buyer for all the gold sold from the giant exchange traded funds. In 2013, physical gold ETFs sold nearly 800 tonnes of gold. Swiss refiner Argor-Heraeus is one of the largest gold refiners. It converts the large 400-ounce bars of gold from the ETFs into one-kilogram bars. About 70% of those bars went to China.
This is a huge story. The question is when will China drop the curtain and show the world how much gold it actually acquired...

Skol

10-01-2014, 07:19 PM

JB,

A classic goldbug story, all rumour and innuendo, but no facts, but let's not spoil a good fairytale with the truth.

Bobcat.

11-01-2014, 08:38 AM

Trouble for Nth American recovery?

Overnight, we saw the following reported :

1. US average hourly earnings up only 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%)
2. US non-farm payrolls (excludes farmers) up only 74k (f: 196k)
3. US private non-farm payrolls (excludes farmers, govt workers and NPOs) up only 87k (f:195k)
4. Canadian new jobs down 50k (f: up 15k)
5. Canadian unemployment rate up to 7.2% (f: 7%)

Note that the US payroll figures are not good enough to support population growth, let alone economic growth!

The only glimmer of hope was US unemployment rate of 6.7% (f: 7%) but as Bernanke made clear last month, the Fed no longer feels bound to taper QE based on the unemployment rate alone.

This is all good for gold of course, which has lifted overnight from 1232USD to test 1249USD and now trade, as I write this, at 1246USD.

It spiked down sharply earlier this week from 1249USD. That has not happened today. Gold and Silver are finding good support. It will take some very impressive 4th quarter US Corporate earnings reporting to lift the S&P500, DJIA and NAZDAQ indicies well enough to turn around the momentum that's now building with precious metal stocks.

Currently in Toronto, OGC is up 4.5% and TRY 7%. Looking good for a lift in local PM stock prices Monday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/OGC:CN

Daytr

11-01-2014, 09:38 AM

BC, good night for gold & hopefully this week we can clear the key $1250-60 area.

Here is a graph of the US employment participation rate which displays that 4-5 million people have left the workforce sine 2008. Quite incredible.
http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_LNS11300000_2003_2013_all_period_M1 2_data.gif

Daytr

11-01-2014, 09:47 AM

JB, personally I don't think China will link their currency to gold. I could be wrong, but I think in a way its irrelevant. The fact that China is willing to make gold a component of their reserves is enough. I believe the amount of gold they currently own is around 2% of their total reserves, could be wrong & no one really knows the true figure, but that's what I have seen bandied about. It appears China is willing to increase that level & more importantly are openly encouraging their own 1.3B people to buy & own gold. Ask yourself, why would China encourage its people to buy gold? It because the Chinese government think its an important asset class & they will continue to support it by buying it from the West & as such their own people who have bought gold will benefit.

I was in Perth a meeting with a major Japanese Corp about 18 months ago with a senior FX guy from the bank where I was working. I stated that I thought the Chinese were very likely to float their currency within 10 years & possibly 5. The FX guy laughed at me openly in front of the client which was not only unprofessional, however I considered naïve. The Japanese reps weren't laughing, they were nodding quite solemnly.

skid

11-01-2014, 10:00 AM

There was a glimmer of hope for a while there that the terminally ill US economy was going to do OK because someone gave the patient a pain killers and he looked ok on the outside,(while he continued to smoke ,drink ,and party hardy with someone else's money)
But now that the painkillers are being cut down ,withdrawal symptoms are starting to show.

Some day they will figure out that it is more important to keep your countries population in work,even at the expense of the fat cats making a few less billions.
But it will take a
''Man of the people" coming along who is not afraid to commit political suicide rather than the usual Corporate slaves.

Meanwhile gold just does what it does, reacts to the state of the beast (which is the real show)

Daytr

11-01-2014, 10:09 AM

I wouldn't read too much into the non-farm payrolls number & even the next one might also be bad. Remember there is a massive freeze going on in North America & that would certainly have an impact. Obviously if its the start of a trend, then that's something different. That participation rate though is just damned right ugly & I do think this is the number that people should be concentrating on.

skid

11-01-2014, 11:13 AM

peat

11-01-2014, 12:07 PM

I wouldn't read too much into the non-farm payrolls number & even the next one might also be bad. Remember there is a massive freeze going on in North America & that would certainly have an impact.

The figure was for December though and afaik the cold spell starred in January so I'm not thinking this is a factor.
Always going to be volatility in the monthly figures of course

Daytr

11-01-2014, 12:17 PM

Yeah I was wondering about that as well. Numerous reports stated the cold as a factor, so I think the well publicized record polar vortex hit in January, but I still think it was pretty freezing in Dec as well.

The figure was for December though and afaik the cold spell starred in January so I'm not thinking this is a factor.
Always going to be volatility in the monthly figures of course

peat

11-01-2014, 05:00 PM

Need to look at past years and see if seasonality is trend for summer months.
figures are seasonally adjusted

there is no question it was a poor result and the weather or the season is NOT a factor.

Indeed there is a specific piece of info describing the impact weather has on the figures http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesfaq.htm#revisions21

How can unusually severe weather affect employment and hours estimates?

In the establishment survey, the reference period is the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Unusually severe weather is more likely to have an impact on average weekly hours than on employment. Average weekly hours are estimated for paid time during the pay period, including pay for holidays, sick leave, or other time off. The impact of severe weather on hours estimates typically, but not always, results in a reduction in average weekly hours. For example, some employees may be off work for part of the pay period and not receive pay for the time missed, while some workers, such as those dealing with cleanup or repair, may work extra hours.
In order for severe weather conditions to reduce the estimate of payroll employment, employees have to be off work without pay for the entire pay period. About half of all employees in the payroll survey have a 2-week, semi-monthly, or monthly pay period. Employees who receive pay for any part of the pay period, even 1 hour, are counted in the payroll employment figures. It is not possible to quantify the effect of extreme weather on estimates of employment from the establishment survey.

However the upwards revision of October and November figures mitigates this result a little
Employment gains in October and November were 38,000 higher than previously reported

Daytr

12-01-2014, 10:47 AM

Thanks peat. What it doesn't address is those who had work to be done & wanted to employ someone to do it but had to postpone it due to the extreme weather, i.e new jobs. It appears it only addresses people that lose their current employment due to weather.

JBmurc

12-01-2014, 02:02 PM

New Trend Guarantees Higher Gold Prices 2014

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43816.html

Skol

12-01-2014, 03:48 PM

New Trend Guarantees Higher Gold Prices 2014

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43816.html

The word 'guarantees' should be the warning signal. I've just taken delivery of a new book JB. It's called 'Annals of Gullibility', and goldbugs should buy a copy.

Bobcat.

12-01-2014, 07:13 PM

New Trend Guarantees Higher Gold Prices 2014

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43816.html

"higher' than what?

a) higher each month than its corresponding month of 2013? That's not going to happen (it was 1665USD on Jan 30, 2012)
b) higher at year end? Probably - but getting that information now is next to useless
c) higher on average for the year? Possibly - but again that is useless information now.

Emotive language with little commitment.

If the headline was "Long-term bullish run on gold has again kicked into gear - bears are once more on the back foot" then I would be more impressed.

BC

JBmurc

12-01-2014, 10:18 PM

Usual stuff - scare the punters then offer them your services:

"Critical point: Buy the physical gold and silver you think you'll need for the future NOW.

One of the best places I know has among the lowest premiums available in the industry, and also offers several international storage locations in case things get bad in your home country. This breakthrough program is as liquid as GLD and offers greater safety than storing bullion at home. Click here to find out more."

That's 5 minutes I'll never get back...

Yeah ok not a best every title or article but geez anyone thats going rush out and start throwing money at anyone off the net just because they state they have a great service etc shouldn't be investing money..also where talking about Gold/silver not some great share picking program BS anyone with and sense would like 99.9% of PM investor buy at your local bullion store or Trademe etc
So what your saying is that if anyone that has a bullish view on any investment and dear puts a bullish article on the net SHOULDN,T EVER BE ASO SELLING THAT ITEM...because straight away they are trying to fleece you LOL ...oh no this evil man talked me into buying Gold/silver bullion man even though it's never been worthless I could lose out ....right ?

so

Pebble Project in Alaska. Anglo American (AAUKY) spent $540 million on one of the biggest copper/gold discoveries ever, but recently announced that it will walk away from it. The company said it wants to focus on lower-risk projects and is undoubtedly tired of putting up with ongoing environmental scares and regulatory delays.

Fruta del Norte in Ecuador. Kinross Gold (KGC) bought Aurelian shortly after what many called the discovery of the decade, but the politicos demanded such a big slice of the pie that Kinross stopped developing the project.

New Prosperity Mine in British Columbia. Taseko Mines (TGB) has been relentlessly challenged by environmental activists at the world's tenth-largest undeveloped gold/copper deposit and pushed politicians to continually delay permitting.

Pascua-Lama in Argentina & Chile. This giant deposit has been postponed for several years, largely due to environmental issues and unmet regulatory requirements. Some analysts think it may never enter production.

Navidad in Argentina. Pan American Silver (PAAS) was forced to admit that the Navidad silver deposit—one of the world's biggest silver-primary deposits—was "uneconomic at any reasonable estimate of long-term silver prices" when the local governor announced he wanted "greater state ownership" and increased royalties from 3% to 8%.

Minas Conga in Peru. Newmont's (NEM) multibillion-dollar project was put on the back burner last year when the government gave the company two years to develop a way to guarantee water supplies for residents of the Cajamarca region.

this is all lies then ?

p.s -Don't rush out and buy PM they are at record lows to average production costs

JBmurc

12-01-2014, 10:25 PM

"higher' than what?

a) higher each month than its corresponding month of 2013? That's not going to happen (it was 1665USD on Jan 30, 2012)
b) higher at year end? Probably - but getting that information now is next to useless
c) higher on average for the year? Possibly - but again that is useless information now.

Emotive language with little commitment.

If the headline was "Long-term bullish run on gold has again kicked into gear - bears are once more on the back foot" then I would be more impressed.

BC

think you miss-understand (but I do agree not the best title) the article is putting across the trend against miners in turn adding to price the future buyers of Gold will have to pay ...basic economics geez

And by the way the guys this article was done by "Casey Research" run by Doug Casey 25yrs in the industry....

Had a 3 day summit last year..
http://www.caseyresearch.com/summit/2013-fall

yeah scammers LOL

skid

13-01-2014, 08:38 AM

No JB, I'm just saying anyone that puts such things at the bottom of their article has major ulterior motives. if the same article said "Gold is a washout, short it now HERE!" I would also ignore it. University taught me to be very suspicious, when conducting research, of "compromised sources"; this has all the hallmarks of one.

Fact is, NO ONE can guarantee ANYTHING at any one time. the only constant in the universe is change, ironic eh?

Now thats not true Moosie and I have plenty of data to show that

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JBmurc

13-01-2014, 09:01 AM

No JB, I'm just saying anyone that puts such things at the bottom of their article has major ulterior motives. if the same article said "Gold is a washout, short it now HERE!" I would also ignore it. University taught me to be very suspicious, when conducting research, of "compromised sources"; this has all the hallmarks of one.

Fact is, NO ONE can guarantee ANYTHING at any one time. the only constant in the universe is change, ironic eh?

your talking about this at the end-

All it takes to capitalize on this opportunity is to recognize the supply shortage that's on the way and act accordingly.

Critical point: Buy the physical gold and silver you think you'll need for the future NOW.

One of the best places I know has among the lowest premiums available in the industry, and also offers several international storage locations in case things get bad in your home country. This breakthrough program is as liquid as GLD and offers greater safety than storing bullion at home. Click here to find out more.

or just that the title had "guarantee" in it