Gold [Archive] - Page 23 - Sharetrader Forum

JBmurc

02-10-2013, 10:46 PM

GOLD posted its biggest daily percentage drop in more than two weeks on Tuesday following a massive Comex sell order and technical selling once prices fell below $1,300 an ounce. For the year, gold has shed about 23 percent of its value largely on fears over a U.S. stimulus cutback...
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/gold-near-2-month-low-after-us-government-shutdown/articles

So basically Big boy traders wanted to see the price south and made a very large short order ....we have seen many of these in the last few years most likely only the biggest bullion traders aka JPM ,BOA ,Goldmans,HSBC never selling for a profit more so wanting to push lower i.e not selling smaller amounts but instead trying their best to smash the price through tech levels aka $1300 last night perfect example went to $1277 now 24hrs later $1296......be the same if the major share holder decided to dump a large position on the market

CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton on September 20th:--(so the metals police won't be walking the beat)
On September 30th, at the stroke of midnight, our country will face a government shutdown unless a continuing resolution to fund it is adopted. That would be grave news for consumers.
Under a shutdown scenario, government regulators will be handcuffed in our ability to go after crooks who are trying to evade our oversight and protection of markets.

McGyro

02-10-2013, 10:59 PM

JBmurc

02-10-2013, 11:41 PM

So a stimulus cutback would cause a gold price drop because of a reduction in USD availability (presumably increasing demand) ? It will take me a while to digest that.
From the second paragraph I infer that the Big boys want to drive the price down, presumably to create a stampede and then they will buy back at a lower price.
Have I got that right?

Well the Media tells us many things... in their words the ending of the stimulus would end the chances of higher inflation (we are told Gold increases in higher Inflation times) But us we seen there was no TAPER to the 85billion stimulus or look to be for this rest of this year ....? so this case gold is being pushed down on talk..

One way of thinking is......
On the major traders.. well worth doing a web search on... "JPMorgan illegal operations" ..these guys are up for muti billions in fines for illegal trading operations latest one could be 11 billion fine .....these guys are also major PM traders yet nothing has ever stuck ....I think there's a good reason as ..No FED chairman(or US leader) would want to see a higher Gold price as it has always undermines faith in the Fiat world reserve US dollar to the rest of the world(now that it no longer is backed by gold) i.e the Gold price is bit like a Insurance premium on your house etc the higher it goes the higher the risk the provider believes your house has from damage earthquake ,flood,fire etc

Another way of thinking round the pushing down on Gold is on the back of the "German gold repatriation"
going be much easier to to talk the germans out of wanting their Gold back for many years if the Price of the PM is heading south than making new highs
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2013/02/04/the-bernanke-shock-and-germanys-gold-repatriation

Is this just History Repeating ....

The whole situation mirrors the late 1960s, during a period that led up to the "Nixon Shock." Back then, the world was on the Bretton Woods System — an attempt on the part of Western central bankers to pin the dollar to gold at a fixed rate, while still allowing the metal to trade privately as a commodity. This led to a gap between the market price of gold as a commodity and the official price available from the Treasury.

As the true value of gold separated further and further from its official rate, the world began to realize the system was unsustainable, and many suspected the U.S. was not serious about maintaining a strong dollar. West Germany moved first on these fears by redeeming its dollar reserves for gold, followed by France, Switzerland and others. This eventually culminated in Nixon "closing the gold window" in 1971 by ending any link between the dollar and gold. This "Nixon Shock" spurred chronic inflation throughout the '70s and a concurrent rally in gold.

Are we going to see the same happen between the real metal and paper traded Gold ,the true value of the metal breaking away from the paper traded price controlled by the majors (funded by the FED etc)

IMHO If this is true I don't think the major controlling traders will push it too low or let it go very high but keep it range bound to a level that works to fit their agenda

skid

03-10-2013, 09:03 AM

Bargan hunters jump in to buy sub 1300 gold--back up she goes

Bobcat.

03-10-2013, 12:14 PM

36 hours ago, support at 1325USD was broken and this kicked in some big boys' stops. The POG dropped rapidly from 1330 to 1292 in less than 2 hours! After dropping to a two-month low of 1979, it then recovered to 1321 over just 12 hours (to 11am GMT). These patterns are encouraging. 1979 is a higher low than the 1972 that the POG has bounced off twice over the past three months. If the present upward trend holds and continues through the next 24hrs, I'll be seeing this as bullish.

BC

Logen Ninefingers

03-10-2013, 12:30 PM

I've read the 'debate' on worth of gold with some interest. It seems that one point of view is trying to mock gold like it's some some of joke, some big yellow valueless turd sitting there that fools like to buy for no real reason. It seems the same flawed logic could be applied to a house: "haha - look at that big pile of nailed together wood sitting there, all you can do is live in it. What else you gonna do with it? Valueless junk".

This seems to ignore something about the tangible nature of real things. You can't bankrupt gold, you can't bankrupt a house, but a business sure as hell can go belly up. You can have a mortgagee sale on a house, and someone else will buy the tangible thing - it has intrinsic value. What is a share? Just a derived unreal enity, the value of which can be uttelry vaporised and extinguished overnight.

Moreover, gold is not just a yellow turd. It is valued across a vast array of fields - from dentistry to electronics to food to jewellery. It is used as a protective shield on satellites ffs!
The status of gold reflects just exactly what human beings can do with it.

What are you going to do with your invisible, just exists on a computer screen *share* in any adverse scenario? When it's value is vaporised......did it even exist at all? When the company it supposedly represents posts an enormous loss or goes belly up, or the market crashes as panic sets in: what protects your little share.....what bulwarks it against adversity? Nothing. It is *nothing*.

What can your little paper note do when it is totally devalued? What's it's bulwark? What's it's defence. You could use it as toilet paper, or as notepaper - like they did in the Weimar Republic. You could burn it on the fire.

Laughing at gold is just about the silliest thing I've heard of. You might as well laugh at a Picasso painting....."oeerr, this is just a piece of canvas with paint on it".

Daytr

03-10-2013, 01:21 PM

My view on gold being sold down was really no one was willing to take it higher, so once it didn't move the hedge-funds pounced & caught the market off guard. A rumour was put around the market that a large fund was liquidating its gold (ETF I think) position. Not sure if there was any truth to the rumour however it certainly helped the shorters & suspect it may have been malicious, but have no foundation for that. The view of the market was also the shutdown would be a few days & perhaps it will be but I suspect not, either way as long as it doesn't drag on more than a few weeks the shut down doesn't matter too much other than for the 750k government workers who aren't being paid. What really matters & this will be gold supportive as once the debt ceiling is lifted the ratings companies will review their sovereign rating of the US and this will have a positive impact on the POG imo.

Skol

03-10-2013, 01:43 PM

The US Govt. has shutdown and has the world ended? No, everything's proceeding quite normally, it's a political standoff and goldbugs are trying to make a mountain out of a molehill, these kinds of tribulations have affected many countries, NZ included.

You only need gold if you're insecure, the politicians in the USA are going to make absolutely sure they can't be held responsible for any adverse economic circumstances, in other words it's a storm in a teacup - as usual.

Tunnel-vision goldbugs portray the shutdown as the beginning of the end but actually, if you read today's Herald there's a very good article on govt. shutdowns.

-------------------

Quote:

'The S&P500 has risen 11% on average in the 12 months following a govt. shutdown, according to data compiled by Bloomberg on instances since 1976.'

-------------------

Most goldbugs are too young to remember the 1980 implosion, but I do, quite clearly, so we've got a new generation of gold 'investors' with limited economic memory. There's years of inflation already built into the current gold price, so more than likely it's going to grind its way slowly south as the stock market rises.

JBmurc

03-10-2013, 02:20 PM

The US Govt. has shutdown and has the world ended? No, everything's proceeding quite normally, it's a political standoff and goldbugs are trying to make a mountain out of as molehill, these kinds of tribulations have affected many countries, NZ included.

You only need gold if you're insecure, the politicians in the USA are going to make absolutely sure they can't be held responsible for any adverse economic circumstances, in other words it's a storm in a teacup - as usual.

Yeah for sure the world's not going end just because 800k workers aren't getting paid or people needing IRS details to buy property can't,Many market regulators not working,NASA all shut up shop etc...but It's not a good look is it ?? for the world #1 superpower

Then add in the Fact this is looking like the stand-off will drag into the Debt Ceiling come 17th of the month and it starts to look like one BIG stuff-up ...rolling into another one

the GFC came about from a mix of issues complex financial products; undisclosed conflicts of interest; the failure of regulators, the credit rating agencies, and the market itself to rein in the excesses of Wall Street

Structurally "NOTHING" been fixed from the GFC>>>>Are we seen some of this issues once again raise their head....Currently the US GOVERNMENT IS CLOSED some are going on holiday

Daytr

03-10-2013, 03:25 PM

Bobcat.

03-10-2013, 03:41 PM

Since the GFC, the US Government has grown bigger not smaller. Average wage for Government workers has increased, not decreased. This is the opposite to what's happened in the private sector. Reaping the consequences of excessive Government spending does not get my sympathy.

Last night, the country's monthly ADP nonfarm private employment increased by only 166k new jobs (against a forecasted rise of 180k). That's hardly enough to cover their natural population increase - not to drive anything of a recovery. To recover within 3 years, I've seen estimates of 200k as the minumum. A US recovery is not (in spite of the political rhetoric) just around the corner. It may actually never happen.

BC

Logen Ninefingers

03-10-2013, 03:56 PM

Skol

03-10-2013, 04:41 PM

Why label people who chose to see the inate value of the tangible scare metal gold as 'gold bugs' in some derisive scornful way. If I could walk out of my office and pick up handfuls of the stuff I could perhaps understand it. But at the end of 2009, it was estimated that all the gold ever mined totaled 165,000 tonnes.

So what are people that invest in houses to be called: "house bugs". People that invest in shares should be ridiculed as "share bugs".

Please, why are there troll comments that ridicule people who invest in gold. They don't belong anymore that if someone to start a thread called "shares" and the same thing were to happen.

The US ecnomony is f*cked. The fact that the US dollar has the standing it does is a miracle. QE won't be winding up - to keep this charade going they will need to increase it!!!! At that time, make sure you have plenty of tangible assests, not paper assets that exist on a computer screen.

Gold is a lousy long term investment, and to prove it here's a quote:
---------
In his book Basic Economics, Thomas Sowell[69] argued that, in the long-term, gold's high volatility when compared to stocks and bonds, means that gold does not hold its value compared to stocks and bonds:
To take an extreme example [of price volatility], while a dollar invested in bonds in 1801 would be worth nearly a thousand dollars by 1998, a dollar invested in stocks that same year would be worth more than half a million dollars. All this is in real terms, taking inflation into account. Meanwhile, a dollar invested in gold in 1801 would by 1998 be worth just 78 cents.

---------

Enjoy your yellow metal, if you live in North Korea or Iran it might come in handy.

JBmurc

03-10-2013, 04:55 PM

JBMurc, totally agree, hardly the look of a stable democracy in action. Imagine if the same happened in China, we would be talking about the brink of civil war no doubt. If I was a Federal worker on unpaid leave & my mortgage payment was due, I would be pretty pissed!

Yes or even in are backyard image the talk going round if Key stated that ACC,IRD,all parks ,museums,much of the Government were to close right round a major issue that needed to be sorted months ago>>>would be a complete joke

I see the DOW is no longer looking so flash with negative futures heading into tonight >>

Skol

03-10-2013, 05:00 PM

I see the DOW is no longer looking so flash with negative futures heading into tonight >>

Exactly, buying opportunity!!!!!!!!

Quote from today's Herald.
-------

'The US congressional standoff that shut down the govt. for the first time in 17 years is a buying opportunity for stock investors if history is any guide.'

Logen Ninefingers

03-10-2013, 05:04 PM

Gold is a lousy long term investment, and to prove it here's a quote:
---------
In his book Basic Economics, Thomas Sowell[69] argued that, in the long-term, gold's high volatility when compared to stocks and bonds, means that gold does not hold its value compared to stocks and bonds:
To take an extreme example [of price volatility], while a dollar invested in bonds in 1801 would be worth nearly a thousand dollars by 1998, a dollar invested in stocks that same year would be worth more than half a million dollars. All this is in real terms, taking inflation into account. Meanwhile, a dollar invested in gold in 1801 would by 1998 be worth just 78 cents.

---------

Enjoy your yellow metal, if you live in North Korea or Iran it might come in handy.

All you do is provide untold quotes and bits and bobs of reports bagging gold. It amounts to nothing at all because anyone can find quotes and bits and bobs praising gold to the skies. It's a pointless argment. The fact is gold has always had value in every major human civilisation & that won't change because you sneer at it.
Talk to me about the 23% real unemployment in the US and tell me that that is a) the sign of a healthy economy b) the sign of a basket case ecomony.
Equities are the only game in town because interest rates have been smashed. Easy credit means plenty of debt, debt, debt - which just fuels the party. Bernacke is devaluing and destroying his own currency on a daily basis. He is like King Canute trying to hold back the ocean. It can't end well.
It's useless talking about "yellow metal". You couly equally start describing million dollar houses as "wooden shelters". Your equities are smoke: derivatives. Millions of tiny fragments of "ownership" all chopped up and scattered about. They can be rendered valueless overnight. Tangible "things" cannot.

Skol

03-10-2013, 05:05 PM

JBMurc, totally agree, hardly the look of a stable democracy in action. Imagine if the same happened in China, we would be talking about the brink of civil war no doubt. If I was a Federal worker on unpaid leave & my mortgage payment was due, I would be pretty pissed!

Exaggeration there Daytr, the communist one-party tyrants would shoot anyone who stepped out of line, just as they did in the 1989 Tianenmen Square Massacre.

Skol

03-10-2013, 05:07 PM

All you do is provide untold quotes and bits and bobs of reports bagging gold. It amounts to nothing at all because anyone can find quotes and bits and bobs praising gold to the skies. It's a pointless argment. The fact is gold has always had value in every major human civilisation & that won't change because you sneer at it.
Talk to me about the 23% real unemployment in the US and tell me that that is a) the sign of a healthy economy b) the sign of a basket case ecomony.
Equities are the only game in town because interest rates have been smashed. Easy credit means plenty of debt, debt, debt - which just fuels the party. Bernacke is devaluing and destroying his own currency on a daily basis. He is like King Canute trying to hold back the ocean. It can't end well.
It's useless talking about "yellow metal". You couly equally start describing million dollar houses as "wooden shelters". Your equities are smoke: derivatives. Millions of tiny fragments of "ownership" all chopped up and scattered about. They can be rendered valueless overnight. Tangible "things" cannot.

Equities keep going up and gold keeps going down.

I rest my case!

Logen Ninefingers

03-10-2013, 05:43 PM

Equities keep going up and gold keeps going down.

I rest my case!

You don't have a case. You are pointing to the prevailing trend and attaching your whole viewpoint to it: that does not make you an oracle. Your fundamental arguments are redundant and will expose you to ridicule as soon as the trend reverses.

Daytr

03-10-2013, 05:46 PM

Logen ninefingers, I suggest you put Skol on ignore. I played along with him for a while but it got boring as apparently gold should never go up. It took me a while to decide to do it, but imo his comments offer no value. I like seeing alternative opinions to my own as there is usually something that can be learnt or at least it makes you re-check your own logic or predictions, but I found over a relatively short period of time I was just wasting my time on a barrage of negativity. Make up your own mind of course, but I suggest, enjoy the serenity!

Skol

03-10-2013, 05:59 PM

You don't have a case. You are pointing to the prevailing trend and attaching your whole viewpoint to it: that does not make you an oracle. Your fundamental arguments are redundant and will expose you to ridicule as soon as the trend reverses.

Looking forward to it, lots of people have put me on ignore for the last few years, but I'm right and you're wrong and the trend shows no sign of reversing. LOL

There's a storm coming up in the Gulf of Mexico Logan, time to change tack and think about all those oil wells that will be shut down, there's always some disaster on the goldbug radar.

And BTW LN, do you think Obama or 'Obummer' as the goldbugs call him wants to go down in history as the President that oversaw a US default?

Logen Ninefingers

03-10-2013, 06:45 PM

Who is that says gold is what it is worth though? The market does.

and what happens if tomorrow bitcoins become the new standard? or indian sandalwood? or unobtainium? the notion that gold is THE standard is quite outdated this day in age. humans are extremely fickle and weird, and any new currency or commodity could easily replace the USD or gold.

gold may seem like a good store of wealth now, but remember, its only worth what the market pays for it, just like every other item on the market. its not different this time. :)

Gold is not road metal that I can go and scoop up in a wheel-barrow. It is a relatively scarce metal that has to be hard-won from the ground. I'm not talking about "new standards" - I'm talking about tangible assets, as opposed to *shares* , *****coins* or whatever. Indian Sandalwood not doubt has intrinsic value, as would Unobtainium - were it a real 'thing'.......it sounds pretty scarce, the name suggests it's close to unobtainable.

Will there always be a market for houses? Yes. Will there be a market for a scarce malleable metal with a huge range of applications accross a broad spectrum of human activity? Yes.

Logen Ninefingers

03-10-2013, 06:51 PM

The underlying economy has nothing to do with the US crisis of governance. They don't default, and - hooray!! - the Fed's 3.5 trillion balance sheet goes away!!! 17.66 trillion in US debt vanishes!! 85 billion a month in new funny money evaporates!! I don't think so. This governance crisis and it's resolution are a charade, just like the huge US equities bubble pumped up on stimulus. - Don't be daft. They are screwed!!!!!

You are like someone saying to the look-out on the Titanic as the ship is 2 metres from the ice "she'll be right Jake. These things never hit 'bergs". How much of an ostrich can you be. But just because all the other lemmings are jumping over a cliff.....

Daytr

03-10-2013, 06:54 PM

And don't forget shiny! Gold is shiny! In reality gold makes no sense, however man has shown that their ill discipline with the fiat currency means that there is a requirement for gold. Gold also has thousands of years of history & if you ask the Rothschilds or any of the old families of Europe I am sure they hold a substantial amount of gold as does the Chinese & the Indians. Anyone that says gold's day is done is either not only the smartest man in the room but the planet, or the opposite. The POG will fluctuate, but gold will exist as a store of value whilst man lives & breathes.

Skol

03-10-2013, 07:09 PM

Many don't share the goldbug view, the SPDR Gold fund is down another 4 tonnes in the last 4 days. If anyone wants some gold there's 901.7 tonnes available, down from 1,500 tonnes.

There's a lot of angry goldbugs out there who think they should be rich, but alas, it isn't going to happen.

Logen Ninefingers

03-10-2013, 07:57 PM

Haha skol, equities will be obliterated like Alderaan by the Death Star. Why get on a gold thread and pooh-pooh gold when equities are headed for the mother of all crashes.

Logen Ninefingers

03-10-2013, 08:14 PM

Gold has been under attack from Western banks while China has been on holiday. This is nothing more than market manipulation in support of the US peso.

elZorro

03-10-2013, 08:49 PM

Can I just say here, that I might be tempted to scour the web for positive articles on gold, and that's certainly interesting, even if not objective.

http://www.ibtimes.com/chinas-gold-fever-rises-showing-no-signs-abating-golden-week-holiday-kicks-1413202

Skol

03-10-2013, 09:06 PM

Gold has been under attack from Western banks while China has been on holiday. This is nothing more than market manipulation in support of the US peso.

Yeah, we all know it's not your fault you're losing money it's someone elses, I've heard it a 100 times before. lol

JBmurc

03-10-2013, 09:45 PM

Looking forward to it, lots of people have put me on ignore for the last few years, but I'm right and you're wrong and the trend shows no sign of reversing. LOL

There's a storm coming up in the Gulf of Mexico Logan, time to change tack and think about all those oil wells that will be shut down, there's always some disaster on the goldbug radar.

And BTW LN, do you think Obama or 'Obummer' as the goldbugs call him wants to go down in history as the President that oversaw a US default?

Talking about OIL skol I remember you being a massive BEAR on the stuff much like you are with Gold & Silver guess you just gave up on that one.... like you will on the PM's ...see every one wants Inflation just ask mr Obama and team he wants the Debt ceiling lifted much much higher like I keep hearing from the TV- 'We don't want to come back at Xmas and have to lift it again and go through this all again"-Obama no your right mr President lets just do the same as we did with the Q.E and not have a limit >>

Logen Ninefingers

03-10-2013, 09:48 PM

I certainly don't love gold or have an emotional attachment to it; I'm intrigued that in this thread you are apparently either a 'gold bug' or a gold derider. Or make that 'gold bug' derider. Why not discuss where gold is sitting within the context of the developing economic situation, and where it may go depending on how the macro economic situation plays out, rather than relentlessly deriding gold and so-called gold bugs.

Skol

03-10-2013, 09:48 PM

I think the people that post on this thread are smarter than going long in the middle of a bear market skol. many have admitted to trading in and out, and I don't blame them!

I'm with you on that one, if the guys are making money trading it I applaud them, problem is that we have posters like Daytr that profess to make 100% in 3 months, pushing gold, trying to drum up a little business, dissing the US Treasury, Obama, Bernanke etc.

We won't hear from him over this anyway because he's put me on ignore, goldbugs often do.

Bobcat.

03-10-2013, 09:50 PM

Well, I'm long and holding (trading just a few off highs and lows) - does that mean I'm not smart? Well, it would if Gold was still in a bear market. The worm has turned. It may take Shanghai reopening next Tuesday to provide the confirmation required to satisfy the doubters (nay, 'idealogues') on this thread, but there IS real value in gold and it's about to be made more obvious as people give up on the US dollar. People don't realise what they truely value until their house is on fire and the walls are about to come crashing down.

Those living in financial houses first run to the Swiss Franc (which has happened this past week) and then to Gold.

By the end of this month I expect the POG to break 1375USD....which due to the USD depreciation just around the corner really will not be so difficult.

BC

Skol

03-10-2013, 09:51 PM

Talking about OIL skol I remember you being a massive BEAR on the stuff much like you are with Gold & Silver guess you just gave up on that one.

Yes I was a massive oil bear, and oil crashed from $147 to $32. Go the the peak oil thread and check it out, who's got the alzheimer's problem?

Who sold silver at US$50+, that's right, me. lol

Remember I want one of your silver bars with lots of 8's on it when it gets to $5, hope you've put it aside.

JBmurc

03-10-2013, 10:07 PM

Yes I was a massive oil bear, and oil crashed from $147 to $32. Go the the peak oil thread and check it out, who's got the alzheimer's problem?

Who sold silver at US$50+, that's right, me. lol

Remember I want one of your silver bars with lots of 8's on it when it gets to $5, hope you've put it aside.

And how long did Oil stay at $32 Skol ?? where is it now ...here's a chart

4884

Right I understand now you were 100% wrong from day one on PM Gold/Silver you said $1000 was overvalued but because you bleated on all the way to 1920 your now right and I guess if gold say does what OIL did and spike down from massive naked shorts within a couple days to say below your $1000 price then spike just as fast back to 1300 etc your be feeling pretty happy as your'd be right hey LOL

JBmurc

03-10-2013, 10:15 PM

well, I'm getting ready for the US government to reopen, debt ceiling to be lifted and $1050 gold to be hit. be nice to be in for the next dad cat bounce. if not, oh well, my stocks are still treating me well :)

Well lift the debt limit should really be bullish PM more Fiat ....the biggest negative for Gold would be a strong fiscal action like stopping the Q.E ,, paying down debt,,lifting interest rates IMHO but hey the market moves in mysteries ways most the times these days of huge Leverage

Obama on default RISE THAT LIMIT present
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=N3qRPg2RDHc#t=205

Then Obama on you guessed it that Debt 08
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydZTHPkOnvE

Skol

04-10-2013, 04:34 AM

From The FT:

The price of gold is more than $50 below its 50-day moving average, which chartists view as confirmation of a powerful down trend. Traders have expressed frustration that recent dollar weakness and anxiety over the US shutdown could not spark traditional “haven” buying of the bullion.

skid

04-10-2013, 09:26 AM

skid

04-10-2013, 09:35 AM

Think about it--All this is happening because they are not raising the debt ceiling so alot of the gov. has shut down.
So if they raise the debt ceiling(more debt) is that the solution to all the problems?
If so -why not just take on unlimited debt-just borrow forever.
Does that make sense to you,cause it looks a bit dicey to me.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-02/australian-futures-rise-while-yen-holds-gains-oil-slips.html

skid

04-10-2013, 10:05 AM

Well no one wants a calamity--good to be on your toes though.
Good that you are benefiting and have an exit plan

Bobcat.

04-10-2013, 10:21 AM

The past two night's trading have reversed most of Tuesday's selloff on the NYMEX, and the POG is showing decent support...but is not yet bullish. It's trading in a very narrow range.

1320 is new resistance (a breakthrough that price would be bullish).
1304 is the new support (a breakthrough that would be bearish).

Meanwhile, today I expect ASX and NZX gold stocks to lift slightly and hold (rather than sell off at end of day as has happened this past week).

BC

Skol

04-10-2013, 12:48 PM

Even with all the drama going on in DC, gold can't get any traction, HUI down 1.16% and GDXJ down 1.22%, you don't need much imagination to work out what's going to happen when the impasse is solved.

Bobcat.

04-10-2013, 12:59 PM

Your right, Skol - a little imagination is all it takes to see Moody's and S&P, etc downgrade the US dollar resulting in a flight to precious metals. The Dow has stopped rising and even if the Fed decides to print more money than the present $80B/mnth, the 4 year honeymoon period is over for Equities. The luckless bride is about to wake up in the light of day to see more clearly the monster to which she's now married...and he's even uglier on the inside.

Imaginative enough for you? Beware the enemy within. Buy gold and silver.

Skol

04-10-2013, 01:41 PM

I won't be buying any gold or silver, that's for sure, but there's probably plenty available, the SPDR Gold fund down another 2 tonnes in the last 2 days, shedding a tonne a day at the moment.

Down 600 tonnes from its peak.

skid

04-10-2013, 01:56 PM

[QUOTE=Skol;431027]Even with all the drama going on in DC, gold can't get any traction, HUI down 1.16% and GDXJ down 1.22%, you don't need much imagination to work out what's going to happen when the impasse is solved.

Just theatrics ATM--but if it plays out longer it could easily turn into a crisis.
We all know your not buying Gold or Silver--And if your smart ,your not buying much else ATM.
Of course you could short Gold or Silver if you believe your imagination =intelligence

Bobcat.

04-10-2013, 02:13 PM

POG is holding nicely above yesterday's price at the same time of day, and has done so for the past 4 hours. The short term trend is not downward. A break through 1320USD, however, is needed to confirm a reversal.

BC

JBmurc

04-10-2013, 02:28 PM

Daytr

04-10-2013, 02:38 PM

Remember, China is out this week & that & includes Singaporean Chinese etc so nothing really going on in large parts of Asia. If the agreement is reached they then need to agree to lift the debt ceiling & as long as it doesn't drag on too long in itself its not a major. Kicking the can down the road is, & the credit rating agencies reactions to the inevitable downgrade for the US's sovereign rating. Gold may sell off once agreement is reached in Washington, or maybe the short term thinkers actually realize what it means in regards the massive US bond market & the rating thereof.

Skol

04-10-2013, 03:29 PM

[QUOTE=skid;431042]

Skol would be bankrupt if he had shorted gold from his first anti-gold post...even though he imagines he's been right all along

A bit like you with the 2000 oz of silver you used to brag about, but I didn't short, I own shares and they've beaten the crap out of gold and silver, but you've still got your silver as it plunges further and further into middle earth.

JBmurc

04-10-2013, 03:34 PM

Bobcat.

04-10-2013, 07:06 PM

POG testing 1320USD now. Bullish if it breaks through and holds overnight.

Should've bought into some oversold ASX gold diggers today, chaps.

BC

Disc: holding lots.

Skol

04-10-2013, 07:23 PM

POG testing 1320USD now. Bullish if it breaks through and holds overnight.

Should've bought into some oversold ASX gold diggers today, chaps.

BC

Disc: holding lots.

OMG, you mean you want more of this? What a masochist.

Skol

04-10-2013, 07:40 PM

POG testing 1320USD now. Bullish if it breaks through and holds overnight.

Should've bought into some oversold ASX gold diggers today, chaps.

BC

Disc: holding lots.

Try this instead!

Skol

04-10-2013, 08:17 PM

More ammunition for a serious slide in the gold price, chinese 'aunties' throwing in the towel.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last updated:October 3, 2013 6:56 pm

Crucial China support for gold may fade

By Neil Hume in London

Where would be we without China? It is a question many people in the commodities industry have asked in recent years. But it has particular resonance for gold.

An explosion in physical demand from the second biggest economy has prevented a sharp sell-off from becoming a disorderly rout – and provided nervous investors with a reason to remain positive on gold as its 13-year bull run comes to an end.

And 2013 looks set to be the first year in modern times when China will overtake India as the precious metal’s number one consumer, according to Thomson Reuters GFMS. It will also mark the first time that the world’s biggest producer of gold is also the largest importer and consumer, says HSBC.

In the year to date Chinese imports of gold are estimated to have nearly doubled to 864 tonnes, according to figures from investment bank Natixis, and are on course to exceed 1,000 tonnes for the first time.

“I don’t think we fully understand the size and the appetite of the Chinese market and its implications for the global price,” Jeremy East, global head of metals trading at Standard Chartered told the London Bullion Market Association’s conference in Rome this week. However, there are indications that demand is beginning to slow – premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange have started to ease – and analysts are not sure another drop in the gold price would trigger further rapacious buying from China.

This year has seen a rebalancing of the gold market. In the west, institutional investors have slashed their positions in gold-backed exchange traded funds on expectations of a shift in US monetary policy, a key driver of the gold price in recent years.

Gold holdings in ETF funds have fallen from a record 2,700 tonnes at the start of the year to about 2,000, pressuring the bullion price, which has fallen 20 per cent to $1,316 a troy ounce in the year to date.

The selling has been countered, but not fully offset, by an explosion in physical demand from consumers in Asia, and in particular China. India also saw record imports earlier in the year before demand was hit hard by regulations. This buying helped gold rally from its April and June lows of $1,360 and $1,199 respectively.

“Where would the gold price be if China hadn’t come in and mopped up?” Mr East commented at the conference. “I wouldn’t have been surprised to have seen gold testing its big support level at $1,050.”

ETF sales have now slowed but many analysts believe it is a temporary respite and sales will resume once the timing of the tapering by the US Federal Reserve becomes clearer.

“If we look at where ETF holdings stood when Lehman Brothers went under it was around 1,000 tonnes,” Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Precious Metals Insight said at the LBMA event.

“I don’t think we are going to see anything like that; but could we see another 200, 300, 400 tonnes of liquidation? I think that’s quite feasible. In 2009, for example, there was just 1,800 tonnes of gold backed ETFs.”

The extent to which the falls in April and June have flushed out “weak holders” is hotly debated among market participants. So too is the outlook for Chinese demand. Citi, for example, argues China is now very well stocked with gold and demand will slide over the remainder of the year.

“Demand seems to have slowed as the gold price rose in July and August, but it’s not clear,” says Matthew Turner, an analyst at Macquarie. Also unclear is how much of China’s buying came from the “official sector” and could provide an ongoing source of demand. There is a suspicion among analysts that China’s central bank has purchased around a couple of hundred tonnes this year to diversify its holdings from US Treasury bonds.

While China has been a stabilising influence on the gold price this year, few market participants believe it will be able to drive the price higher on a sustained basis. “The problem is much of the demand [from China] is related to the fall in the price. Like central bank purchases it has helped establish a higher floor but it won’t on its own drive gold back up on a sustained basis,” says Mr Klapwijk.

Indeed, not even mounting fears of the first default by the US of its debt obligations has been able to drive up the gold price, which hit a near two-month low earlier this week. In very similar circumstances in the summer of 2011 gold breached $1,900.

This, according to analysts, is striking and shows how sentiment towards gold, at least in the west, has shifted in the past year as tapering has come into focus.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bobcat.

04-10-2013, 10:35 PM

Skol - you have the choice of either living in the past, preoccupied with downtrends (which, yes, are obvious), or instead looking for gems -- i.e. signs of imminent reversals -- which produce a crop of quick profits. I did it this week with MBN (see an earlier thread) and I'm seeing now that there's an opportunity to do likewise with gold stocks.

Any fool can tell you what the market has been doing for months. There's no wisdom in that. Instead try searching for the little gems that can turn you a profit quickly. Technical analysis on a solid footing of fundamentals help to get the timing right. Admittedly, my timing is about a week too early on this one, but even so I've enjoyed the challenge and it's not over yet.

Yes, there is more risk in this approach, but also a greater reward (and for my liking, greater satisfaction in the hunt). Try it.

BC

skid

05-10-2013, 10:30 AM

[QUOTE=JBmurc;431055]

A bit like you with the 2000 oz of silver you used to brag about, but I didn't short, I own shares and they've beaten the crap out of gold and silver, but you've still got your silver as it plunges further and further into middle earth.

They've certainly beat the crap out of shorting gold and silver since your first post.
Maybe you should put your money where your mouth is and short--Talk is cheap.
That way you might gain some credibility and some will start to listen to you.
How can you pass up this golden opportunity--cant remember where you said
Gold was headed but that would be a good place to short to.
Lets see some action

Skol

05-10-2013, 03:34 PM

[QUOTE=Skol;431066]

They've certainly beat the crap out of shorting gold and silver since your first post.
Maybe you should put your money where your mouth is and short--Talk is cheap.
That way you might gain some credibility and some will start to listen to you.
How can you pass up this golden opportunity--cant remember where you said
Gold was headed but that would be a good place to short to.
Lets see some action

I wouldn't touch gold or silver, I wouldn't even short it, it's toxic, I've put my money where my mouth is by buying stocks, gold up, stocks down, generally and vice versa and less risk, which reminds me the gold juniors in the USA got a battering last night (-2.6%).

If gold halves its current price, that's about where it should be based on inflation, which is nearly non-existent.

Skol

06-10-2013, 08:43 PM

Another casualty of the declining gold price.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10343899/Pawnbroker-Albemarle-and-Bonds-shares-tumble-more-than-40pc-on-profits-warning-after-gold-price-falls.html

JBmurc

06-10-2013, 10:16 PM

"The price of gold has fallen sharply due to fears of an early end to the US Federal Reserve’s stimulus programme"

that should be on a TUI BILLBOARD ....

Skol

07-10-2013, 09:11 AM

In the next few days there'll be a newsflash that the impasse has been resolved, what's gonna happen then?

c-r-a-s-h?

Then the paranoid goldbugs will be back to their manipulation conspiracy theories. I've just been reading an article by Doug Casey, referring to what goldbugs call a "smackdown", and he reckons it was engineered by "da boyz".

Isn't it pathetic?

digger

07-10-2013, 09:58 AM

skid

07-10-2013, 10:04 AM

[QUOTE=skid;431128]

I wouldn't touch gold or silver, I wouldn't even short it, it's toxic, I've put my money where my mouth is by buying stocks, gold up, stocks down, generally and vice versa and less risk, which reminds me the gold juniors in the USA got a battering last night (-2.6%).

If gold halves its current price, that's about where it should be based on inflation, which is nearly non-existent.

So if gold halves in price and you have shorted it--you will make heaps of money.
Whats so toxic about that--Do you understand what shorting is?
Are you afraid if you short ,it will go up and burn you again?
If something is toxic-you short it---thats what shorting is all about.
If you dont want to have anything to do with gold,why do you keep posting?

Skol

07-10-2013, 11:07 AM

[QUOTE=Skol;431154]

So if gold halves in price and you have shorted it--you will make heaps of money.
Whats so toxic about that--Do you understand what shorting is?
Are you afraid if you short ,it will go up and burn you again?
If something is toxic-you short it---thats what shorting is all about.
If you dont want to have anything to do with gold,why do you keep posting?

I know exactly what shorting is, I buy stocks instead, gold down, stocks up. Nice! I'm not greedy.

What do you mean "burn me again"? I haven't been burnt the first time.

Why do I keep posting? For the 100th time...........

Gold was a bubble, right, I couldn't care less about gold, to me it's a useless yellow commodity, but I enjoy the bubble debate, the same as I enjoyed the oil bubble debate until it crashed from $147 to $32, then I lost interest, but I'm right, oil was a bubble and so was gold, but we've got a fair way to go yet for gold to hit rock bottom, so I think I'll stick around, might be wrong, we'll see.

I've got lots of books on bubbles, human nature never changes, one bubble ends, another one starts, you might say bubble-watching is a hobby of mine, whether it's pyramid scams or major busts like the GFC, which I saw coming a mile off by the way.

I like to think of it as a public service you might say, I enjoy dobbing in scamsters and taunting them on the phone when they call. I've had several messages from guys saying they'd like to buy me a beer because I've saved them shtloads of money.

One of my favourite TV programmes is American Greed. People are perpetually stupid, another favourite TV programme of mine is 1000 Ways to Die. A frequently recurring theme is that of unsympathetic individuals' choices backfiring on them, resulting in death.

I also find the goldbug psychology endlessly amusing as they blame everyone else but themselves for their misfortune; the manipulators, the banksters, Obama, Bernanke, the 'elites', the Fed, Glenn Stevens, the Rothschilds, the illuminati, JPM, Fort Knox is empty, it's hilarious.

I also enjoy exposing the myth of the '5000 year store of value', which it quite clearly isn't.

Skol

07-10-2013, 11:51 AM

So Skol you are saying that the govt shutdown is a good thing and the way to avoid a depression is to keep the govt departments in lockout.

Govt. shutdowns happen often the world over when there's a political impasse, this is just a litle bigger than usual. The only depression I'm aware of happened in the 1930's and was caused by the gold standard.

We've seen this movie before.

Italy's had over 60 governments since WW2.

Skol

07-10-2013, 08:41 PM

In 1980 the average Sydney house price was $50,000.
In 2013 the average Sydney house price is $730,000.

In 1980 gold was $800 oz.
In 2013 gold is $1310 oz.

Of course this doesn't take into account any rent that may have accrued from the property.

The '5000 year store of value'. Good Tuis ad there.

peat

07-10-2013, 10:37 PM

Gold is performing a textbook head and shoulders reversal pattern right now:

still cant see this

Bobcat.

07-10-2013, 11:11 PM

Last week, it looked like 1272USD was going to be tested a third time but POG found support higher at 1279. Last Friday key resistance at 1320 was tested and broken (but only for an hour). Bears then took the price to 1307 where it found new support (a higher low). It has just now found new support at 1309 (another higher low) and is again rising (currently 1312.50) but will find some resistance at 1315.

I expect that once Shanghai opens again tomorrow, the Chinese will again be buying (regardless of the US reaching a short-term agreement to 'resolve' its budgetary problems, and ahead of any Credit agency downgrade, inflation worries or US default on its borrowings). Don't be surprised if within 24hrs we see both 1315 and 1320 broken and the bears rethinking their positions, withdrawing their shorts and the bulls holding firm at 1320 and above.

If the POG holds above 1320 through Wednesday, it's bullish. For now it's trading in a holding pattern between 1307 and 1315. Regardless of where you stand in the (yawn) debate around what if any fundamental/precious value this metal has, the smart money right now is following the technicals.

BC

Skol

08-10-2013, 08:42 AM

Here's another example of what a poor long term 'investment' gold is.

In Oct 1986 I bought a factory for $215,000, currently it's not worth that much more, probably around $600,000, it's getting long in the tooth and earthquake mods may be required. I've had $1,000,000 in rent off it, so my total return is about $1,385,000.

If I'd bought $215,000 worth of gold in 1986 I'd have $706,000.

Factory return, $1,385,000
Gold return $491,000

Does that make you want to go and buy heaps of krugerrands?

Bobcat.

08-10-2013, 09:43 AM

1323USD and holding above new support (old resistance) of 1320. Bullish pattern.

Bobcat.

08-10-2013, 11:22 AM

You're right Mossie - timeframe as you point out is important for context.

Since late August, the short-term downward trend line has been touched 4 times indicating that there's movement to break through. Last night it was tested again at 1326. Support at 1320 is established meaning that the squeeze is on (with higher lows of late indicating the pressure is upward - i.e. bullish in my opinion).

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-10-07/template_jimw.htm

The more conservative amongst us may prefer to wait for a POG above 1330 (i.e. after the downward trend line has been punctured).

If you'd also like some empirical evidence, look at the bids that have come in this morning on ASX gold stocks (notably AQG and KCN).

BC

Daytr

08-10-2013, 02:30 PM

Moosie/BC, in my view you are both right if that is possible. The trend is still down for mine although it looks like it might be turning. Needs to crack $1330 & hold for that to be cemented. Good support on the chart at $1300 & if holds for a 3rd time should see gold go higher again. Obviously if it breaks $1300 then we are still in the down trend.

skid

08-10-2013, 03:27 PM

[QUOTE=skid;431223]

I know exactly what shorting is, I buy stocks instead, gold down, stocks up. Nice! I'm not greedy.

What do you mean "burn me again"? I haven't been burnt the first time.

Why do I keep posting? For the 100th time...........

Gold was a bubble, right, I couldn't care less about gold, to me it's a useless yellow commodity, but I enjoy the bubble debate, the same as I enjoyed the oil bubble debate until it crashed from $147 to $32, then I lost interest, but I'm right, oil was a bubble and so was gold, but we've got a fair way to go yet for gold to hit rock bottom, so I think I'll stick around, might be wrong, we'll see.

I've got lots of books on bubbles, human nature never changes, one bubble ends, another one starts, you might say bubble-watching is a hobby of mine, whether it's pyramid scams or major busts like the GFC, which I saw coming a mile off by the way.

I like to think of it as a public service you might say, I enjoy dobbing in scamsters and taunting them on the phone when they call. I've had several messages from guys saying they'd like to buy me a beer because I've saved them shtloads of money.

One of my favourite TV programmes is American Greed. People are perpetually stupid, another favourite TV programme of mine is 1000 Ways to Die. A frequently recurring theme is that of unsympathetic individuals' choices backfiring on them, resulting in death.

I also find the goldbug psychology endlessly amusing as they blame everyone else but themselves for their misfortune; the manipulators, the banksters, Obama, Bernanke, the 'elites', the Fed, Glenn Stevens, the Rothschilds, the illuminati, JPM, Fort Knox is empty, it's hilarious.

I also enjoy exposing the myth of the '5000 year store of value', which it quite clearly isn't.

Im sure I read in one of your posts that you were in gold in the past and took a hit(and according to you learned a lesson)?? Is that true? If not then apologies.
You saw the GFC coming a mile away--I dont remember reading any posts about that-maybe I missed them??
So its all about doing a public service and about bubbles(Thanx for the clarification)
Have you had a good look at the sharemarket bubble--the housing bubble--and the credit bubble?
So many bubbles
Id like to see some of those glowing messages of thanks from those who took your advice at the time of your first post and let me remind you that gold has still not gone back to that level in all that time.
The only credible time frame for your advice is from the point you gave it .
Any thing else is just playing with words because you have always said the same thing--Its irrelevant that gold has fallen from its highs in terms of your advice simply because you always say the same thing so once in a while your bound to be right --like I said before --your advice is just the other side of the coin from those that predict astronomical gold prices. Reality looms somewhere in between
Gold goes up-Gold goes down-- thanx for the public service ..but I think Ill look for those who are able to predict both directions.

Skol

08-10-2013, 03:53 PM

[QUOTE=Skol;431237]

Im sure I read in one of your posts that you were in gold in the past and took a hit(and according to you learned a lesson)?? Is that true? If not then apologies.
You saw the GFC coming a mile away--I dont remember reading any posts about that-maybe I missed them??

Yes you've missed plenty of my posts it seems
No I haven't been burned on PM's, I sold silver for US$50+, that's not to say I got through entirely unscathed on other punts, who has?

The GFC-- The Economist warned for years about excessive property prices and the FT brought to my attention the lunacy associated with CDO's and the amount of debt in the world, whereupon I sold property, reduced my debt and changed my super from 100% balanced to 50% cash, 50% balanced. I did it on 1/4/2007, just checked the confirmation.

If you want to examine a gold bubble and subsequent bust, check out 1980, different circumstances, but the same result, it won't be 'different this time', as much as the goldbugs tell you it is.

Friend Daytr invests other people's money he tells us, so when he brags about producing a 100% profit in 3 months, does it sound too good to be true? How about his losses?

BTW, I'm not psychic, but if you want psychic, check this out, the gold 'experts'.

http://bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=21102:these-90-analysts-believe-gold-will-go-to-5000ozt&catid=61:lorimer-wilson&Itemid=138

digger

08-10-2013, 05:33 PM

Just a comment for those that go on about how gold produces nothing. Wondering how much this white diamond that sold the other day for 33 million produces. Seems a lot to pay for a useless bit of rock.

Logen Ninefingers

08-10-2013, 05:45 PM

http://www.bdlive.co.za/markets/2013/10/07/gold-price-is-bound-to-go-through-the-roof

Very interesting, the amount of manipulation that is going on with this 'useless yellow metal'. It will take a 'run on gold' to bring down this modern day 'London Gold Pool' cartel.

Of all the minerals mined from the Earth, none is more useful than gold. Its usefulness is derived from a diversity of special properties. Gold conducts electricity, does not tarnish, is very easy to work, can be drawn into wire, can be hammered into thin sheets, alloys with many other metals, can be melted and cast into highly detailed shapes, has a wonderful color and a brilliant luster.
Because gold is highly valued and in very limited supply it has long been used as a medium of exchange or money.
Gold is used in many places in the standard desktop or laptop computer. The rapid and accurate transmission of digital information through the computer and from one component to another requires an efficient and reliable conductor. Gold meets these requirements better than any other metal. The importance of high quality and reliable performance justifies the high cost.
How would iron work as a dental filling? Not very well... your dentist would need blacksmithing tools, your smile would be rusty a few days after a filling and you would need to get used to the taste of iron. Even at much higher expense, gold is used in dentistry because of its superior performance and aesthetic appeal. Gold alloys are used for fillings, crowns, bridges and orthodontic appliances. Gold is used in dentistry because it is chemically inert, nonallergenic and easy for the dentist to work.
If you are going to spend billions of dollars on a vehicle that when launched will travel on a voyage where the possibility of lubrication, maintenance and repair is absolutely zero, then building it with extremely dependable materials is essential. This is exactly why gold is used in hundreds of ways in every space vehicle that NASA launches.
Gold is used in circuitry because it is a dependable conductor and connector. In addition, many parts of every space vehicle are fitted with gold-coated polyester film. This film reflects infrared radiation and helps stabilize the temperature of the spacecraft. Without this coating, dark colored parts of the spacecraft would absorb significant amounts of heat
Gold is also used as a lubricant between mechanical parts. In the vacuum of space, organic lubricants would volatilize and they would be broken down by the intense radiation beyond Earth's atmosphere. Gold has a very low shear strength and thin films of gold between critical moving parts serves as a lubricant - the gold molecules slip past one another under the forces of friction and that provides a lubricant action.
Gold is used as a drug to treat a small number of medical conditions. Injections of weak solutions of sodium aurothiomalate or aurothioglucose are sometimes used to treat rheumatoid arthritis. Particles of a radioactive gold isotope are implanted in tissues to serve as a radiation source in the treatment of certain cancers.
Small amounts of gold are used to remedy a condition known as Lagophthalmos, which is an inability of a person to close their eyes completely. This condition is treated by implanting small amounts of gold in the upper eyelid. The implanted gold "weights" the eyelid and the force of gravity helps the eyelid close fully.
Radioactive gold is used in diagnosis. It is injected in a colloidal solution that can be tracked as a beta emitter as it passes through the body. Many surgical instruments, electronic equipment and life-support devices are made using small amounts of gold. Gold is nonreactive in the instruments and is highly reliable in the electronic equipment and life-support devices.
Gold has many uses in the production of glass. The most basic use in glassmaking is that of a pigment. A small amount of gold suspended in the glass when it is annealed produces a rich ruby color.
Gold is also used when making specialty glass for climate controlled buildings and cases. A small amount of gold dispersed within the glass or coated onto the glass surface will reflect solar radiation outward, helping the buildings stay cool in the summer, and reflect internal heat inward, helping them stay warm in winter.
The visor on the helmet of an astronaut's space suit is coated with a very thin film of gold. This thin film reflects much of the very intense solar radiation of space, protecting the astronaut's eyes and skin
Gold has the highest malleability of any metal. This enables gold to be beaten into sheets that are only a few millionths of an inch thick. These thin sheets, known as "gold leaf" can be applied over the irregular surfaces of picture frames, molding or furniture.
Gold leaf is also used on the external and internal surfaces of buildings. This provides a durable and corrosion-resistant covering. One of the most eye-catching uses of gold leaf is on the domes of religious buildings and other important structures. The cost of this "roofing material" is very high per square foot; however, the cost of the gold is only a few percent of the total project cost. Most of the cost goes to the labor of highly skilled artisans who apply the gold leaf
What metal is used to make the crown worn by a king? Gold! This metal is selected for use because gold it is THE metal of highest esteem. It would make no sense to make a king's crown out of steel - even though steel is the strongest metal. Gold is chosen for use in a king's crown because it is the metal associated with highest esteem and status.
Gold is associated with many positive qualities. Purity is another quality associated with gold. For this reason, gold is the metal of choice for religious objects. Crosses, communion ware and other religious symbols are almost always made with gold for this reason.

skid

09-10-2013, 01:09 PM

[QUOTE=skid;431431]

Yes you've missed plenty of my posts it seems
No I haven't been burned on PM's, I sold silver for US$50+, that's not to say I got through entirely unscathed on other punts, who has?

The GFC-- The Economist warned for years about excessive property prices and the FT brought to my attention the lunacy associated with CDO's and the amount of debt in the world, whereupon I sold property, reduced my debt and changed my super from 100% balanced to 50% cash, 50% balanced. I did it on 1/4/2007, just checked the confirmation.

If you want to examine a gold bubble and subsequent bust, check out 1980, different circumstances, but the same result, it won't be 'different this time', as much as the goldbugs tell you it is.

Friend Daytr invests other people's money he tells us, so when he brags about producing a 100% profit in 3 months, does it sound too good to be true? How about his losses?

BTW, I'm not psychic, but if you want psychic, check this out, the gold 'experts'.

http://bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=21102:these-90-analysts-believe-gold-will-go-to-5000ozt&catid=61:lorimer-wilson&Itemid=138

So you inherited your 1 kg of silver when the market was high and immediately sold it--thats totally irrelevant in terms of advice.

So you saw the GFC coming and adjusted your portfolio(you say)--Thats great(I wish everyone all the best on their investments)---But unless you posted advice --Warnings about this -then it is also irrelevant because you have nothing to back your claim (or maybe decided the GFC wasnt important enough for your public service.

Sorry--doesnt wash

skid

09-10-2013, 01:11 PM

if I make it big on the market you can bet that one day I will buy that diamond encrusted glove to wash my lamborghini like in the Lotto ad :)

If that happens Ill keep an eye out for a lamborghini with scratch marks all over it-- LOL

skid

09-10-2013, 01:21 PM

From where Im sitting (and reading) sounds like for traders ,in terms of the technical side of things that gold is bearish ATM.
BUT having said that, the situation in USA makes it even more blatantly obvious,the importance of having a small percentage of Gold among your assets for protection.

They say that in the unlikely event that they dont work out the debt ceiling issue(politics)and do default,it will be a technical default(which means they have the money-just cant get their act together)--Even so,the repercussions are to scarey to think about.

skid

09-10-2013, 01:25 PM

Hopefully,everything will work out--I will be accused of scaremongering -My small amount of gold will be worth a bit less--and we can all keep living the high life for longer

Bobcat.

09-10-2013, 03:37 PM

Goldies taking another hammering today, especially OGC as it announces MOD has increased it's stake in Sam's Creek by 20% and buys up a lower grade spec play in a Middle America Banana Republic. What were they thinking?!?!

OGC already own just under 20% of Pacific Rim and have had plenty of time to conduct a due diligence. OGC are taking a bit of risk given the impasse since 2008 re Pac Rim's application for exploration and mining permit from the El Salvador government who have passively denied it. The matter is before the courts (Canadian arbitration). They won't get the benefits of this takover until that dispute is settled. If it's settled in favour of OGC then all good, but if not...

I have some confidence that the OGC Board know what they are doing but it does create some uncertainty, and the market does not seem to be taking kindly to that.

Still, one man's fear and uncertainty is another man's opportunity to buy into this stock at a better price.

BC

Skol

09-10-2013, 03:56 PM

No one's hoarding gold for the financial Armageddon, the SPDR Gold Fund down another 6 tonnes since Sept.30th.

JBmurc

09-10-2013, 05:42 PM

Haha, knowing my clutziness the paint job won't be pristine very long. I think I would take it a bit too far and buy another one and have diamond encrusted "racing gloves". Dual use, yay! :eek2:

Goldies taking another hammering today, especially OGC as it announces MOD has increased it's stake in Sam's Creek by 20% and buys up a lower grade spec play in a Middle America Banana Republic. What were they thinking?!?!

Even Mr Hug has run out of words (note the 2-5% fall note if debt ceiling is raised...):

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hug/2013-10-08-Deer-In-The-Headlights.html

Don't know about low grade Moose if you include the Silver into the per ton resource you get 10g/t Gold equif thats a high grade very profitable resource when you compare it to OGC NZ operations >>>personal if mining costs keep going up a the NZ gold price does also go up I think OGC will look to sell or J.V down their NZ operations to focus more so on these banana republics as these are the new growth for Gold production going forward not Aussie ,NZ ,USA , S.A etc LOW cost HIGH grades the vast bulk of silver comes from countries you wouldn't call first world

Daytr

09-10-2013, 06:02 PM

Not all taking a hammering Moosie, GOR which I am loaded up on is up 30%! Gotta love that BC?

Haha, knowing my clutziness the paint job won't be pristine very long. I think I would take it a bit too far and buy another one and have diamond encrusted "racing gloves". Dual use, yay! :eek2:

Goldies taking another hammering today, especially OGC as it announces MOD has increased it's stake in Sam's Creek by 20% and buys up a lower grade spec play in a Middle America Banana Republic. What were they thinking?!?!

Even Mr Hug has run out of words (note the 2-5% fall note if debt ceiling is raised...):

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hug/2013-10-08-Deer-In-The-Headlights.html

Bobcat.

09-10-2013, 06:51 PM

Start your own thread, QT - this one's for .ASX Gold stocks.

Daytr

09-10-2013, 09:04 PM

Yeah its a great trading stock Moosie, but also has good fundamentals. Liquidity generally isn't too bad either for a junior miner.

Bobcat.

09-10-2013, 10:19 PM

Depending on how quickly GOR approaches 10c, I may take profit and then pick up instead some TAM, SCI, SLR and/or PGI which are all looking oversold.

Others thoughts?

BTW, the price of Gold has plummeted from 1320 to 1309 over just the past hour. How it moves from here during NYMEX trading later tonight will I believe set the trend for the rest of this month.

BC

Bobcat.

10-10-2013, 08:25 AM

Don't be too harsh on the fella in the front line ahead of those expecting Obama to exercise more fiscal responsibility. The liberal media of course like to think (and preach to others) that money grows on trees (preferably someone else's that hangs over their fence).

The Fed has printed trillions in its QE bond purchasing programme (i.e. borrowing) that shows no signs of easing, and yes, this is placing a huge burden on America's children who do not have the GDP or any other means of paying it back. The speaker of the House and others are not in the wrong to give Obama and his cronies the clear message that his spending spree has to stop. It will come home to roost, and they are mindful of that - positioning for damage control (and I don't mean to Obama's reputation) is not an irresponsible move. Good luck to them.

Meanwhile, we traders can benefit from the uncertainty it creates.

BC

skid

10-10-2013, 08:54 AM

Bobcat.

10-10-2013, 06:35 PM

Interesting graphs, Moosie. It's not conceivable for the POG to rise to touch the medium-term downward trendline at around 1490 before falling away again. That's what I'm trading to. Admittedly, I've not been factoring in the AUD/USD rate which has increased and therefore made ASX gold digger stocks less attractive. But if you look at the short-term technicals on the POG in USDs, I still do believe that the short-term downward trend line is about to be broken. It has now been touched four times, and the duration between tests has shortened each time. 1320 if broken will provide a (short-term?) bullish technical sentiment.
http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-10-09/template_jimw.htm

The next two days are fairly important IMHO. I feel that several ASX gold diggers are now oversold (e.g. EVN, TRY, GRY, SLR, SBM), especially the low cost operators, and some are now at double bottoms (GRY, FML, SBM) and so I'm still buying, which I have funds to use for another few trades before I stop accumulating. Yeah, I know - averaging down can be a mugs game but I have a good feel about this one. POG is now rising off a double bottom of 1302. If that holds, I'll be more comfortable.

BC

Bobcat.

11-10-2013, 02:48 PM

Check this out:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Holmes/2013-10-09-The-Fire-Fueling-Gold.html

In short, US government manipulation of both its unemployment and CPI figures understate the health of the US economy and overstate its real interest rate. Anything over a 2% real interest rate tends to produce downward pressure on the demand for, and price of, Gold. According to this report, the US is actually running at less than 1%. Yes, people have been duped by some very clever manipulation of economic statistics...but for just how long can the smoke and mirror show continue before the American public and global markets wake up to the degenerate state of the world's powerhouse economy?

Buy Gold.

Technically, since the short-term downward trendline was touched at 1330 (the fourth time the trend line has been tested), the POG has fallen away a lot less than the previous three times. Also, there is a short-term upward trend line forming (not shown in the graph below) joining 1190 (end of June) with 1278 (early Oct) with 1285 (earlier today). Yes, we need to be careful that we're not reading what we want to see happen into the charts, but this could be bullish...

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-10-10/template_jimw.htm

BC

Bobcat.

12-10-2013, 08:35 AM

1272 has been broken. Bears are still in control...I'm going to shut up now. If you don't hear from me, it's because I'm too busy weeping over my paper losses.

BC

Bobcat.

12-10-2013, 10:34 AM

digger

12-10-2013, 11:41 AM

Stop talking to me Moosie - can you see I am hanging my head in shame for being so upbeat about something that has fallen away...

Oh, look, wait a mo'. POG is 1273 and climbing....and that's on the back of an announced probable resolution to the political impasse re the debt limit and US government shutdown. Perhaps the forecasted 5% drop in the POG upon this debacle being resolved was grossly exaggerated?!

I'm back, and rolling with the punches.

BC

Try a PIKE River blow up for losses. That was 100% with gold it is only a percentage with hope that some day it my recover. Watch out it might rocket to 1274 at any moment so prepare yourself.
Cheers

Skol

12-10-2013, 11:47 AM

Anyone who says there's a shortage of gold should check the SPDR Gold Trust website, it's down to 890 tonnes from around 1,500 tonnes, and dropping at 1 tonne (32,000+ oz)/day, very bearish for gold.

HUI -2.4%
GDXJ -3.02%
GDX -2.14%
SLV -1.5%
SIL -1.62%

JBmurc

12-10-2013, 09:09 PM

If we didn’t know any better, and we don’t, we get the impression that there has been a large-scale collaborative effort underway by certain Western powers (in which we include Japan) to prevent rapidly rising demand from driving the gold price up.

This would typically sound like conspiracy theory except for the fact that it’s been done before.

The London Gold Pool

In 1961, a group of 8 western central banks, led by the United States, joined together for this exact purpose. It was known as the London Gold Pool and also included Germany, the U.K., and Switzerland.

The purpose was to protect the old global fixed rate currency exchange mechanism established at Bretton Woods in the closing stages of World War II. A rising gold price put this mechanism at risk.

The gold pool was successful to varying degrees for several years. But it was unsustainable, as are similar efforts today, and ultimately collapsed in a heap in 1968. The collapse featured runs on gold reserves, currency devaluations, geopolitical conflict, and the 2 week closure of the London gold market.

It was these events which ultimately led President Nixon to close the U.S. gold window in August 1971, and which caused the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Andres/2013-10-11-Gold-in-Flight-Gold-Miners-Weekly.html

cartel signaling minutes prior to dumping 17,000 paper gold contracts on the market between Oct 11 8:43 and 8:45am: triggering a stop of Comex gold trading as the market went dark for 20 seconds!

http://www.nanex.net/aqck2/4455.html

Skol

13-10-2013, 07:34 AM

As gold rocketed away, goldbugs forgot about what's known as 'Stein's Law'. It was coined by the late economist Herb Stein, and went "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop".

Meanwhile gold is making highs and lows in the 100 largest ETF's.

YTD.

iShares Gold -23.3%
iShares Silver -29.1
MktVecGld -49.2%
PwrSharesDblLng -44.4%
SPDRGld -23.3%

MktVecDblSht +52.3

The worst performing mutual fund in the USA in the last year, Direxion Gold Bull 3X -94.33%.
The best performing mutual fund in the USA in the last year, Direxion Gold Bear 3X +187.08%

In the last year gold was the worst performer of all US Diversified Equity Funds -48.25%

The WSJ reports that in the event of a looming default the USA could sell assets to keep itself afloat. Could 8000 tons of gold go under the hammer?

On closer examination, the SPDR Gold Trust has reduced its stockpile by 8 tonnes in the last 4 days, so 2 tonnes/day is being dumped.

peat

13-10-2013, 08:41 AM

From Gann Global

As a result of this morning’s sharp sell-off in gold, a ton of sell stops were triggered on the decline beneath the double bottom lows at 1271.80 and 1276.90 basis the December contract. This is as I had hoped it would be.

This has resulted in the key contingency being met which has now enabled me to recommend that subscribers place buy stops above the market and enter long positions on strength. That buy price is at 1289.10.

At the same time, I believe we are virtually at a make or break point if this is to define itself as a correction prior to the start of a second leg up in an overall bull market in the precious metals.

That said, the converse is also true.... If prices continue to break down from here, they will be demonstrating the characteristics of an impulse leg down in a continued bear market. In this video, I show the line in the sand.

Joshuatree

13-10-2013, 09:20 AM

Im hoping /wishing Gold does go up. It will give me an op to get out of my Goldies (and resource stocks too prob). Never say never but i feel like its forever ; to avoid this sector in future. " a mine is a hole in the ground managed by liars". Gold has finally lost its lustre for this Magpie, lesson learnt, fingers burnt.

Joshuatree

13-10-2013, 10:40 AM

Good on you moosie and thanks for your thoughts. Yes i have a strat to ease out (have 7 figs) of,mainly of PGI where there is still some value and a reasonable chance of success albeit less then before and like me there are alot of stale holders in PGI. Its def the hardest thing ; the selling and crystalizing a loss; psychologically, opps lost etc but im getting better at this. Thanks again, JT

peat

13-10-2013, 12:26 PM

Gann Global thinks a 30%+ fall in gold prices is a mere correction?!?! dear lord I would absolutely hate to see a full on rout in their books then!

30% is less than a retracement to the first Fibonacci level so yes it is (potentially) only a correction.
think of it like this if a stock such as XRO goes to $18.90 as it did a few months ago, and then goes back to 14.50 as it did within a week. that's 24% within a week.
Even FBU went from 9 back to 6 in the last couple of years. A cyclical stock sure, but still a major.
As PMs are volatile 30% is nothing too extraordinary

Bobcat.

14-10-2013, 01:29 PM

Peat,

Having checked the charts, I'd be setting your buy stop at 1291USD rather than 1289.10 you've recommended. The less conservative (reckless?) amongst us are buying into current lows on ASX low cost gold diggers and others with sound fundamentals (AQG, TRY, PRU, GRY, EVN, SLR, etc)

BC

Bobcat.

14-10-2013, 02:21 PM

Dropping from 1274 to 1269 is hardly 'dropping like a stone', Moosie. Besides, prices often drop before they climb (as a big seller dumps the remainder of their parcel). Likewise, if it rises later today from 1270 to 1280, it will not be 'rising like a rocket'. It would need a major event for any dramatic movement either way, and given the gradual trend downward this past month, IMHO that is more likely to be upward.

BC

peat

14-10-2013, 04:30 PM

Peat,

Having checked the charts, I'd be setting your buy stop at 1291USD rather than 1289.10 you've recommended.
BC
Just for the record :cool: I am not recommending anything. I am advising the forum of what Gann Global stated.

JBmurc

14-10-2013, 04:49 PM

To the Guys that think the USD will always be the reserve currency >>>

4910
http://www.globalresearch.ca/china-agency-calls-for-new-reserve-currency-and-new-world-order/5354190

As the world's second largest economy, the fastest growing economy in the G20 and with more than a trillion dollars sitting in various sovereign wealth funds, China has quite a bit of cash to invest.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24473933

Today, more than 60% of all foreign currency reserves in the world are in U.S. dollars – but there are big changes on the horizon…Some of the biggest economies on earth have been making agreements with each other to move away from using the U.S. dollar in international trade
http://www.munknee.com/shift-from-u-s-dollar-as-world-reserve-currency-underway-what-will-this-mean-for-america/

Skol

14-10-2013, 04:53 PM

I won't be worrying about it that much, neither should you, unless you think you're immortal. lol

Goldbugs are making a mountain out of a molehill as usual about the US shutdown.

Listen everyone!

It's happened 11 times since 1976.

JBmurc

14-10-2013, 05:34 PM

Skol

14-10-2013, 05:43 PM

JBmurc

14-10-2013, 07:41 PM

Not very exciting, it made minor headlines in the USA. People take big punts all the time, so do hedge funds, banks, mutual funds, they probably made a lot of money. Lehmans took a few big punts and went bankrupt, so did suckers who bought into finance companies, Blue Chip, CDO's etc. etc.

-well maybe not to most of the media... but the fact is last time the US was heading towards a default / debt ceiling /credit downgrade the Gold price made one of it biggest moves in history north ..yet this time it's being hit time n time again by massive short orders aka 1.3bill all on speculation the US will Taper ??? ....

Bobcat.

14-10-2013, 07:48 PM

-well maybe not to most of the media... but the fact is last time the US was heading towards a default / debt ceiling /credit downgrade the Gold price made one of it biggest moves in history north ..yet this time it's being hit time n time again by massive short orders aka 1.3bill all on speculation the US will Taper ??? ....

That may be coming to an end. New support at 1269 has been tested three times in past 12 hours and held firm. Resistance at 1275 is now being tested. If that is broken, the next to test is 1290. The US dollar, economy and most economies(!) are not in good shape. We have a suitable market environment for Gold to soon come into its own.

Not ramping, just observing.

BC

Skol

14-10-2013, 07:54 PM

XGD down 3.7% today, when will it stop?

Bobcat.

14-10-2013, 08:09 PM

XGD down 3.7% today, when will it stop?

How about tonight? 1276 and climbing fast.

elZorro

14-10-2013, 08:27 PM

From a reply to a comment on ino.com:

L Grapentine says: October 12, 2013 at 10:57 pm (http://www.ino.com/blog/2013/10/gold-fixation/comment-page-1/#comment-180996)
There is no intention to ever fix the system; to do so would require, at minimum, return to a stable currency. The founders knew this, and provided for ONLY coinage of gold and silver in the Constitution. Non governmental parties were allowed to produce their own currency but the federal government and the states were restricted to coinage created from a fixed measure of those metals. Now we have a the federal reserve, a private bank, printing paper money, or just creating it out of thin air, and buying things with it. This is enormously profitable for the bank, and they use it to buy presidential candidates and congress people. They rule through their bought and paid for agents in DC, and now neither they nor their representatives at the other major banks are even answerable under federal law for their crimes. They are looting the nation, and they have no intention of ever stopping. The only chance to save the nation is a radical shift in the political philosophy at the grass roots. There is a chance of this, which is the reason for the split in the GOP, and the reason the GOP leadership altered the convention rules after the nomination was secured for Romney in 2012; only by a violent attack against his conservative opponents was he saved from loss. The GOP base failed to turn out for him as a consequence, and though he did well enough among Democrats and the independents, his GOP voters were significantly fewer than McCain got. It is quite unlikely that the banksters will allow a conservative to win the WH because of a risk to their central bank franchise, hence terminal inflation is our fate. As for reasons the price has not risen, it is being fixed at a below market price, as it has been for nearly forty years, by a team operation run by the Treasury and the federal reserve. The foreign interests in opposition to this country have decided to allow the scheme to continue so long as they can buy gold at a below market price, however, there is not enough gold left now to continue to supply foreigners and still maintain the fix at the present levels. This is why the Indians are being coerced into restraining their imports, and why the inventories of deliverable metal at the Comex have reached all time lows. Time is running out, and the price of gold will sooner or later explode higher, because everyone in the world knows the Fed is in control here, and will not stop until the nation has been looted completely, or the Fed has been deprived of its franchise by angry voters.

JBmurc

14-10-2013, 08:51 PM

former Morgan Stanley Chairman, Stephen Roach
“…The Federal Reserve continues to cling to a destabilizing and ineffective strategy. By maintaining its policy of quantitative easing (QE) – which entails monthly purchases of long-term assets worth $85 billion – the Fed is courting an increasingly treacherous endgame at home and abroad….

the European Central Bank’s agreement with the People’s Bank of China to establish bilateral Euro-Yuan Currency Swap arrangements, thus freezing the U.S. Dollar out of yet another Bilateral Sovereign Currency Swap Deal.....step by step the USD is getting pushed out of world trade ...The yanks biggest Export is the Fiat USD

Bobcat.

14-10-2013, 10:53 PM

BC, unless you're directly trading gold then buying gold miners on very short term gains in a bear market is a recipe for having your shirt, pants and left forearm taken from you. you need to be patient and wait for the tide to turn in the daily charts.)

That's not always the case, Moosie. Yes, it takes discipline but also guts to come in when the timing looks right. I've made >10% profit ('real' not paper profits) over the past two weeks on each of my AZS, MBN, HGO and GOR trades which has helped counter the paper losses I'm sitting on from other stocks falling away (FML, SBM, EVN, SLR, OGC, GRY, etc). There is money to be made on rebounds in a bear market which has either oversold stocks or simply underestimated their fundamental strength.

I do agree with you however that it's safer to buy on the way up once a bullish trend has been confirmed...but not nearly as adventurous and satisfying.

I adopt a mixture of speculative and conservative plays...and that works well enough for me.

BTW, what was a resistance at 1275 looks to have become a new support level. If that holds through NYMEX tonight, the landscape could quickly change. It's not always the case that a bullish trend is preceded by a massive selloff.

BC

Skol

15-10-2013, 07:28 AM

Obama says a deal is close, goldbugs should get ready for another haircut.

JBmurc

15-10-2013, 10:13 AM

Obama says a deal is close, goldbugs should get ready for another haircut.

Yes that's what the media tells us GOLD has been smashed ..but we are told no it will be smashed down even more on the lifting of the Debt limit etc what a joke ...US going forward is planning to run deficits at the very least for the next decade ...this Debt ceiling is going be hit least another five times before 2023 (debt = 25-30 trillion) ...the whole case for Gold from the same media was as a hedge against the inflation of the USD through reckless money printing ... you really have to believe in fairy tales if you believe in the media spin on Gold's demise so much hot air and lies

JBmurc

15-10-2013, 11:25 AM

The media only believes what the charts say. The charts say what the big boys want them to say. If you can't play with them, stay out. If you can, go hell for leather. The market can remain irrational much longer than you can remain liquid!

Of course thats why I no longer trade Futures,warrants,CFDs far to much leverage risk no margin calls here ....Shares and share opts sitting on some paper losses of late but confident the numbers will stack up for PGI / OGC both making a profit while least 30% of gold producers will be underwater on the ASX another 20-30% breaking even my two are getting the same treatment yet are still making $$$$$$$

Skol

15-10-2013, 01:05 PM

Gold is a vehicle for speculation, speculators take big bets, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Gold is not a safe-haven, it's a speculative precious metal.

Tiring rapidly of whining goldbugs inferring it's not their fault they're going broke.

SPDR Gold Trust down another 2 tonnes yesterday.

Skol

15-10-2013, 01:38 PM

Hey Skol, can you provide a link to the tonnage of the SPDR Gold Trust please?

my pleasure:

http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/

Lots of goldbugs think they don't have any gold but they do, they even list the serial numbers here. So far SPDR Gold has sold 611 tonnes of gold.

US$25536745000 worth.

Whats' that? 25 billion or 255 billion? Maybe 2 trillion, anyone know?

digger

15-10-2013, 04:13 PM

my pleasure:

http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/

Lots of goldbugs think they don't have any gold but they do, they even list the serial numbers here. So far SPDR Gold has sold 611 tonnes of gold.

US$25536745000 worth.

Whats' that? 25 billion or 255 billion? Maybe 2 trillion, anyone know?

25.5 trillion

Skol

15-10-2013, 05:01 PM

25.5 trillion

Are you sure, that would pay off the US deficit and have lots to spare? The USA owns about 7000 tons.

I've double-checked the calculation

611 x 32150 (troy oz/tonne) x US$1300

digger

15-10-2013, 06:01 PM

US$25,536,745,000

25.5 billion the way I read it

Your right Yankiwi,I was too quick.
There are 9 zeros in a billion and twelve zeros in one trillion. So number given is 25.5 Billion.

JBmurc

15-10-2013, 06:56 PM

Are you sure, that would pay off the US deficit and have lots to spare? The USA owns about 7000 tons.

I've double-checked the calculation

611 x 32150 (troy oz/tonne) x US$1300

25.5 bilion thats round 9 days worth of the current Q.E money printing

7000 tons of gold x 32,000 -224,000 x $1270oz =224 billion USD round a quarter of a trillion ...

25.5 trillion or $25,000 billion is what the USD debt level could top by the end of the century with a small rise in interest rates

you can start to see why some guys predict crazy high Gold prices when you put the above numbers into prospective i.e trying to back M3 (stopped letting us know about that number)

Skol

15-10-2013, 07:22 PM

JBmurc

15-10-2013, 07:52 PM

Yes, but gold is not necessary when you have credit cards and paper money, might be to the goldbugs but not in the real world. The total US gold wouldn't pay the US military budget for a year, gold's an anchronism.

Well we are lead to believe Gold's an anchronism ......But Gold is a monetary metal even today just not for common man but for Nations
If it wasn't then the USA would have followed Brown and sold all of the US Gold reserve long ago and Germany would have been happy to take USD instead of wanting their Gold back>>> As the old saying goes as Good as Gold aka.. USD

When banknotes (known as bills in the USA and some other countries) were first introduced they weren't considered to be money in the sense we now think of them, but were promissory notes or IOUs. Gold or silver was real money as it had intrinsic value, whereas notes were just promises to pay in coin. UK banknotes, like those of many other countries, still include messages such as this, signed by the Chief Cashier of the Bank of England: 'I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of ten pounds'.

Skol

15-10-2013, 08:30 PM

Here's the Skol forecast:

Booms follow busts, the next boom is on its way, and it'll be a big one after 6 years of recession.
Agricultural commodities and farmland will benefit, hugely.They already have.
Metals like copper, iron ore, lead and zinc will gain.
Gold and silver will become largely irrelevant, probably facing years in the wilderness. Like old soldiers, they'll just fade away.
China will go into recession and may face political and economic chaos. I wouldn't rule out a Yugoslavia-style implosion.
The USA will boom and pull the world out of recession.
Europe will drag the chain, some, like the UK will advance more than others.
Stockmarkets worldwide will continue to gain.
The Middle East will remain messy with its usual combination of religious fanaticism, royal families and dictators, but that's a foregone conclusion.
The terrorists will face increasing headwinds, countries like Iran will have no option but to return to the international fold or face isolation and poverty.
There could be a property correction, but it won't be huge.
The oil price will fall as more technological advances make it easier to extract and Iranian oil is tapped.
Interest rates will increase, but the goldbug dream of hyperinflation won't happen.
The USD will remain the reserve currency in our lifetimes, China's military may look impressive but couldn't pull the skin off a rice pudding.
'Mad Max' Keiser and harebrained Stacey Herbert will run off together and hopefully disappear from my TV screen forever.

JBmurc

15-10-2013, 09:04 PM

Here's the Skol forecast:

Booms follow busts, the next boom is on its way, and it'll be a big one after 6 years of recession.
Agricultural commodities and farmland will benefit, hugely.They already have.
Metals like copper, iron ore, lead and zinc will gain.
Gold and silver will become largely irrelevant, probably facing years in the wilderness. Like old soldiers, they'll just fade away.
China will go into recession and may face political and economic chaos. I wouldn't rule out a Yugoslavia-style implosion.
The USA will boom and pull the world out of recession.
Europe will drag the chain, some, like the UK will advance more than others.
Stockmarkets worldwide will continue to gain.
The Middle East will remain messy with its usual combination of religious fanaticism, royal families and dictators, but that's a foregone conclusion.
The terrorists will face increasing headwinds, countries like Iran will have no option but to return to the international fold or face isolation and poverty.
The oil price will fall as more technological advances make it easier to extract and Iranian oil is tapped.
Interest rates will increase, but the goldbug dream of hyperinflation won't happen.
The USD will remain the reserve currency in our lifetimes, China's military may look impressive but couldn't pull the skin off a rice pudding.

As I would expect from you Skol you do understand Silver bullion /medals etc only make up round 10% of Silver demand per year
leaving a much larger demand from Industry ...Doesn't make sense the likes of copper,zinc goes up but Silver goes down does it ...

USA boom well it could happen Mr Obama just needs to send out million dollar cheques to the population

Skol

15-10-2013, 09:48 PM

Gold and silver have been the objects of much unwarranted speculation, they'll find their correct level, but it will be lower than the current price.

Much lower.

Looks as if the goldbugs are getting a bit of pineapple treatment at the moment.

Bobcat.

16-10-2013, 09:30 AM

The market has already factored in a deal.

There's a lot more upside for Gold if one is not quickly struck than downside if one is.

Very few people expect Republicans to send the US into a default, least of all Obama who knows that he doesn't need to negotiate a compromise since politically he's sure its a win-win: if Republican's don't give him the increased debt cap then Americans will blame them for any default; if they do it will be on his terms - i.e. giving nothing away re ObamaCare, Entitlements, etc.

Don't be surpised if this sudden lift in the POG ($35 in just under 8 hrs) holds above the new support level of 1275, which is higher than what it was through ASX trading yesterday. ASX gold digger stocks will rise today - it's just a question of by how much and whether or not they will hold that lift through the rest of this week once the Debt cap deal is confirmed (assuming it is).

BC

Skol

16-10-2013, 09:35 AM

You might find it's a case of 'buy the rumour, sell the fact'. Gold could plunge when it's announced.

JBmurc

16-10-2013, 10:08 AM

Yeah Gold should plunge because in the short term the credit limit is increased ...problem fixed right ? well till next year unless Obama gets a massive increase

-And there's so much gold (2012 - 5.6 billion oz above ground) with only 7.185 billion humans .....man it going plunge
maybe $500 next year (worldwide average all-in costs to extract Gold $1100oz USD..includes many miners with metal credits)

Skol

16-10-2013, 10:12 AM

JBmurc

16-10-2013, 10:53 AM

You seem to forget that gold isn't required for the necessities of life like food or shelter. Food gets consumed and population increases require more shelter. Shares, property and consumables will always trounce gold in the long term.

I've just been to a mate's farm, he's got an income of over $400,000/month at the moment, milk solids are $8.50/kg. White gold.

One of the top US hedge fund managers made 2.2billion last year ...one person .... 1oz of gold costs 1500-1600NZD

-Money / Currency / Biggest scam in history
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFDe5kUUyT0

27 hours to Debt deadline .....

Bobcat.

16-10-2013, 01:54 PM

According to Newsmax.com, Fitch Ratings has put the United States' AAA credit grade on "ratings watch negative," citing the government’s inability to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner, according to a statement after New York markets closed.

Any revision to the USA's credit rating would of course boost the POG.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/house-scraps-debt-vote/2013/10/15/id/531245

JBmurc

16-10-2013, 01:59 PM

Yes but at this time it's just talk ,,as I understand the Boss at S&P got the boot after downgrading the US was replaced by a Banker LOL
Great wrap on that link worth posting ---

What is the US debt ceiling?

The US government spends more money than it makes on things like social security payments, wages and interest it owes on loans.
It takes loans in the form of bonds from the US Treasury to make up its cash shortfall.
US Treasury bonds are one of the world's safest investments and are held by countries around the world.
The debt ceiling is a rule put in place by Congress that limits on how much money the government can borrow - the current debt ceiling stands at $US16.7 trillion.
If the government needs to borrow more than this, Congress has to vote on raising the debt ceiling
The US has already reached its debt ceiling and has been using its cash reserves to pay bills.
That money is set to run out on October 17.
After that, we enter uncharted territory as the US government continues to try and pay its bills.
At the end of October the US is due to pay interest on its Treasury bonds, but without a higher debt ceiling it's unlikely it will be able to do so.
If the US defaults on this repayment there will be implications for the global powers who invest in these bonds and the bonds will no longer be considered safe.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/house-scraps-debt-vote/2013/10/15/id/531245[/QUOTE]

Bobcat.

16-10-2013, 02:27 PM

Don't be surpised if this sudden lift in the POG ($35 in just under 8 hrs) holds above the new support level of 1275, which is higher than what it was through ASX trading yesterday.

BC

Support at 1275USD was tested and held. Spot Gold now trading over 1278 and climbing...for now. You can't tell me that's not bullish...but of course we will know through today and tomorrow whether or not it consolidates.

BC

JBmurc

16-10-2013, 02:37 PM

Support at 1275USD was tested and held. Spot Gold now trading over 1278 and climbing...for now. You can't tell me that's not bullish...but of course we will know through today and tomorrow whether or not it consolidates.

BC

I'll be bullish once it breaks 1420's mean time I'm 50/50 on direction >>Paper trading giants/hedge funds,bullion banks,banks etc control it not fundamentals of the miners or physical demand

Skol

16-10-2013, 06:45 PM

Apparently the world is about to enter a financial Armageddon according to the goldbugs, but some trivial mention of it on the news came several stories after Len Brown's sordid grubby little affair.

Bobcat.

16-10-2013, 07:43 PM

I have not seen the POG this interesting for weeks. After a solid run from 1252 to 1286 in just 8 hrs last night, it fell away gently (not surprising) to 1275 and is now at 1283, ready to test last night's high. If it punches through 1290 it will have broken two lots of resistance levels set this week...i.e. bullish.

The ASX today was however dominated by a sentiment that expects a US Budget Deal to be agreed tonight and therefore anticipates downward pressure on the POG and continuation of the bearish trend running since late August. I'm contrarian in this regard. There's more money to be made when the unexpected happens.

BC

JBmurc

16-10-2013, 09:21 PM

49144914Gold at $3000? Only if Bubbles Repeat...click on the image for bigger size
This chart tracks the the performance of gold since July of 2002 against the three largest bubbles of the last 40 years. Past bubbles have shown strong but steady growth for the first 7-8 years before moving into a hyper-growth phase for the last 18-24 months. Each series is adjusted for inflation and is smoothed with a 3-month moving average.

Well one could be lead to be contrarian when leading up to the last Debt ceiling Gold Boomed this time it's done the dead opposite so we could well see it Trade upwards on a deal and on the back of higher markets ...remember how gold was smashed during the GFC

JBmurc

16-10-2013, 10:17 PM

take a chart and plug in the details you want and you can make it tell you the things you want it to that are actually not even present...

Yes thats T/A

Skol

17-10-2013, 07:32 AM

A settlement is reached, the stockmarket rockets away and gold goes..........nowhere!

HUI, GDX and GDXJ all down.

Last 2 years:

DJIA +35%
XJO +24%

Gold -24%
Silver -33%
XGD -68%

Bobcat.

17-10-2013, 08:18 AM

Pundits were expecting the price of gold to drop once a deal was signed. That hasn't happened, which logically is a good sign for goldbugs. Note also that demand for American gold coins in October is now double the demand last month and we are only half way through this month. Like it or not Skol, demand for Gold is now increasing.

http://www.moneynews.com/Markets/gold-Washington-price-coin/2013/10/16/id/531400

skid

17-10-2013, 08:52 AM

Skol

17-10-2013, 08:52 AM

Like it or not Skol, demand for Gold is now increasing.

Then how come the SPDR gold fund is selling 2 tonnes/day?

Because gold and silver haven't gone to the moon we'll be back to the manipulation conspiracy theories.

skid

17-10-2013, 08:53 AM

A settlement is reached, the stockmarket rockets away and gold goes..........nowhere!

HUI, GDX and GDXJ all down.

Last 2 years:

DJIA +35%
XJO +24%

Gold -24%
Silver -33%
XGD -68%

..........

JBmurc

17-10-2013, 09:17 AM

Originally Posted by Skol
In the next few days there'll be a newsflash that the impasse has been resolved, what's gonna happen then?

c-r-a-s-h?

Then the paranoid goldbugs will be back to their manipulation conspiracy theories. I've just been reading an article by Doug Casey, referring to what goldbugs call a "smackdown", and he reckons it was engineered by "da boyz".

Isn't it pathetic?

Skol at his Finest LOL isn't it pathetic

here's a thought Gold forms a floors a bottom round these levels just above average all-in mining costs a third of producers still go belly up ....most PM explorers hit the credit wall >>World markets follow the easy money trend to mass bubble territory till the FED does actually Taper Markets Crash ..Gold rises on both lower production number and higher demand from fear of phony market strenght

Skol

17-10-2013, 12:08 PM

JBmurc

17-10-2013, 01:13 PM

Give it time, it's early days yet.
BTW, I got some nice cheques in the mail yesterday, one from ABC and one from IVC. Does your silver send you cheques in the mail JB?

SPDR Gold Fund down another 4 tonnes in the last 2 days, wait for it!

Selling US$83,590,000 worth of gold each day.

someones selling someones buying ...I see since Operation Twist! Gold no longer follows the increasing amounts of US Debt after follow the trend from the start of the Gold Bull ?

Daytr

17-10-2013, 01:34 PM

Seems market was shorting gold as a hedge against equities going expecting a deal to be done in the US. Deal is now done & shorts are covering. Expect to see gold rally back through $1300 from here & its Thursday.... Rally night!

Skol

17-10-2013, 03:20 PM

The latest from Doomberg on gold. Bad news for the 'bugs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-16/gold-slumping-to-four-year-low-for-best-forecasters-commodities.html

Bobcat.

17-10-2013, 09:35 PM

Downward trendline (currently sitting at 1300USD) has well and truly been busted by a bullish $45 spike that has just peaked POG at 1320 !

Don't be suprised if the (previous) technical resistance at 1300 is now the new support level upon which the bulls can establish a new platform.

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-10-16/template_jimw.htm

JBMurc - I now wish I had not waited until tomorrow to buy those PGI stocks at 4.5c. If they are slow to climb then I may still get some for under 5c...we'll see.

Daytr - ditto for MYG at 3.2

Discl: 80% of my portfolio is now in gold digger stocks...mainly on the ASX.

It's a nice swell that's coming in after the political storm earlier this week. Get that board waxed: surf's up.

BC

JBmurc

17-10-2013, 09:50 PM

Yeah Think PGI shouldn't go lower if this Gold price kicks on after that major spike haven't seen one that sharp for along time

491749164918

Daytr

17-10-2013, 10:38 PM

Gold up over 2%! Thursday night rally night at its best!

Bobcat.

17-10-2013, 11:07 PM

JBmurc

17-10-2013, 11:08 PM

TRY and OGC on my buy list tomorrow if this stays strong overnight. time to ride tge wave, but ever cautious that the last rally sure was a suckers one! MACD and RSI well back into positive territory if so for a good run. theres money to be made out there boys, go find it!

Yes Should open a good deal higher if gold can keep it up tonight

Skol

18-10-2013, 07:40 AM

Hey Skol - are you buying tomorrow?

Or are you waiting until the POG spikes even higher before you are convinced of a turnaround? If so, let me know, and when it spikes again, I'll sell you some of what I'm holding.

BC

Why would I buy something that's in a terminal nosedive? I'd love a dollar for every time I've heard a goldbug tell me the bottom's in, didn't you read the post from Bloomberg?
I have to admit though it's certainly caused a flurry of adrenalin in the goldbug ranks, but all it amounts to is a brief respite on the way south, nothing goes down in a straight line.

Latest headlines in the FT suggests tapering will begin in Dec., you won't want to own gold or silver then.

I'll stick with companies that make and do things, the S&P500 has just hit a new record high.

Bobcat.

18-10-2013, 08:41 AM

I'll give you this, Skol - you are consistent.

Unless you have been shorting (i.e. putting your money where your mouth is) then I suppose that you have little to lose by being consistently wrong, except perhaps some integrity amongst friends.

Last night's spike in the POG is unlike its false positive following last month's FOMC meeting when the price spiked once over a couple of hours and then fell away gradually without any confirmed support.

Last night's spike has been followed by several smaller spikes and an upward slope (1307 to 1319, then 1315 to 1325, and now looks to be holding above 1319). There is some solid support here, and today will see a substantial lift in the price (and future prospects) of OGC.NZX and most precious metal miners on the ASX.

Brace yourself Skol, Moosie and other recent nay-sayers -- you might want to eat some of your words before markets open for the day - i.e. to ease the pain and recover some credibility.

BTW, Bloomberg is seldom right when it comes to the POG and is really just one of many puppet media outlets that the big boy trust fund managers and banks have on a string to manipulate the market and our age-old tendancies to swing like a pendulum from fear to greed. The love of money drives both extremes.

My challenge now is to adopt a selling strategy that is neither fearful (i.e. selling too early) nor greedy (i.e. selling too late). Wish me luck.

Surf's up.

BC

Skol

18-10-2013, 08:53 AM

I'll give you this, Skol - you are consistent.

Unless you have been shorting (i.e. putting your money where your mouth is) then I suppose that you have little to lose by being consistently wrong, except perhaps some integrity amongst friends.

When have I been wrong?

I picked gold was in a bubble and I was right, the bubble's burst and goldbugs are slowly going broke, that is the ones that already aren't.

OMG, you're not into the 'manipulation' craze too are you?

Who do you reckon's doing it? JPM, Goldmans, the Fed? lol

Anyway I'm glad you're enjoying yourself losing money, that makes it a lot more palatable I suppose, and the suggestion that I don't short is correct, I take the opposite bet, stocks, and as I just mentioned they're at an all-time high. Nice!

Here's the proof.

Last year.

Gold -28%
S&P +18%

Last 2 years.

Gold -25%
S&P +40%

JBmurc

18-10-2013, 09:37 AM

A picture tell a thousand words

49204919

Skol

18-10-2013, 09:55 AM

It's all been done before, at the end of WW2.

SPDR Gold Fund down 3 tonnes yesterday.

US$127,314,000

Bobcat.

18-10-2013, 11:59 AM

When have I been wrong?

Last year.

Gold -28%
S&P +18%

Last 2 years.

Gold -25%
S&P +40%

Skol - you don't make money by being wise in hindsight.

Buy into Gold low (i.e. over the past week) to sell high later when resistance is confirmed.

And 'low' is not defined by those with vested interest talking down the PoG. It's defined by a mixture of fundamentals, technical analysis and momentum shifts to the upside...all of which are screaming loud and clear to those who are willing and able to filter out the white noise of market manipulators and media parrots.

I'm picking a 5% rise to my gold stocks today which if it happens will recover completely the paper losses I've been sitting on this past month (parise-G). Good things happen to those that wait watchfully.

It's not too late to come in on this wave, Skol - buy some precious metal diggers and enjoy the ride. OZL, OGC, PGI, AQG all look cheap.

BC

skid

18-10-2013, 12:17 PM

Hey Skol - are you buying tomorrow?

Or are you waiting until the POG spikes even higher before you are convinced of a turnaround? If so, let me know, and when it spikes again, I'll sell you some of what I'm holding.

BC

Are you kidding?? Skol do a turnaround and support gold (regardless of the fundamentals)
Thats about as likely as him doing a post without the word 'goldbug'' in it LOL

Bobcat.

18-10-2013, 12:45 PM

See this article on one analyst's view of what happened last night:

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-10-17/KitcoNews20131017-AS-Gold-Soars-On-Softer-Dollar-Physical-Demand-US-Downgrade-By-Chinese-Agency.html

Note in particular: "The news about the Chinese rating (downgrade) caused a spike from around $1,291 to $1,321, said Steve Scacalossi, director of global precious metals with TD Securities. “In the 11 minutes between $1,283 and $1,320.50, over 20,000 lots traded as CTAs (commodity trading advisers) bought heavily on the electronic platforms,” he said."

I just love the volitility that computerised trading brings to the game.

JBmurc

18-10-2013, 03:01 PM

That was an amazing little spike. Should set up for a new uptrend over the next few weeks as tapering is now firmly off the table for the year (at least, that's what I am banking on!)

DISC - Holding lots of OGC :)

Yeah no TAPER this year they may have a crack early next year but I'd say there's a 50/50 chance they may even have to lift it higher on the back of less foreign investment buying US Debt(China the biggest holder of US debt...Nation credit rating firm just downgraded US debt) ....It's pretty simple for the US in a Marco sense More TAX less Spending which would take steps to Balance the budget and lower Deficits.... if they could do that with a clear goal to return to Surpluses that can be used to reduce Debt ...I'd be a BEARish PM's

JBmurc

18-10-2013, 03:08 PM

Skol

18-10-2013, 03:24 PM

Skol - you don't make money by being wise in hindsight.

Buy into Gold low (i.e. over the past week) to sell high later when resistance is confirmed.

And 'low' is not defined by those with vested interest talking down the PoG. It's defined by a mixture of fundamentals, technical analysis and momentum shifts to the upside...all of which are screaming loud and clear to those who are willing and able to filter out the white noise of market manipulators and media parrots.

I'm picking a 5% rise to my gold stocks today which if it happens will recover completely the paper losses I've been sitting on this past month (parise-G). Good things happen to those that wait watchfully.

It's not too late to come in on this wave, Skol - buy some precious metal diggers and enjoy the ride. OZL, OGC, PGI, AQG all look cheap.

BC
Thanks for the tips but no thanks, I like the lazy mans way to riches, property, and shares like SGP, DOW, MGR, ABC and IVC. The only share i trade on a regular basis is VAH.

Property in or near AKL is better than gold, lifestyle blocks near AKL reported today as up by 26.3% in the year to Sept.

OGC up 5% today, the rest look to be fizzers Bobcat.

Bobcat.

18-10-2013, 06:00 PM

OGC up 5% today, the rest look to be fizzers Bobcat.

The rest are bottoming, Skol, with good volume after some bad news / other selling pressure earlier this week. Sometime over the next couple of days is when to buy these stocks...as they start to lift again (I figure it could take you that long to muster the boldness to proceed).

I have not recommended to you stocks that were going to open 10% higher 'cause I don't like buying on a spike, and wouldn't recommend that you do.

If you'd like another medium term hold, check out PDN and/or ERA (Uranuim miners).

BC

Bobcat.

18-10-2013, 09:57 PM

Skol and others could have joined Moosie with a purchase of OGC at 160c late this afternoon. Nervous traders exiting after just a single day's bullish run.

Skol

19-10-2013, 08:20 AM

Skol and others could have joined Moosie with a purchase of OGC at 160c late this afternoon. Nervous traders exiting after just a single day's bullish run.

I suppose I could've, but I own DOW, which increased 4.6% for the day. OGC went up 3.9%. DOW's a company that does real things and pays a dividend, not digging a metal with no intrisic value out of the ground.

skid

19-10-2013, 09:18 AM

Thanks for the tips but no thanks, I like the lazy mans way to riches, property, and shares like SGP, DOW, MGR, ABC and IVC. The only share i trade on a regular basis is VAH.

Property in or near AKL is better than gold, lifestyle blocks near AKL reported today as up by 26.3% in the year to Sept.

OGC up 5% today, the rest look to be fizzers Bobcat.

Yep,my main portfolio is Auckland property as well but lets face it,it was easy for me (and probably you)to buy in back in the past) these younger guys dont have that chance these days-I think that would qualify as easy to make money in hindsight.--great if you've got it ,but not easy to start from scratch.

So lets step back and take a look at things--The US has postponed their dilemma for 3 months (and shown what clowns they really are in the process,well and truly losing the respect of those few that had any)
The US share market is looking dangerously over bought with all the ''easy" money already made.
In Europe another crises looms in weeks or months.
I think more people are 'feeling' that nothing has really been solved and its just a matter of time before more bad things happen IMHO
Lots of stats coming out this week --If they are rosy,that may help to settle the nerves--if not ,it could be the catalyst for a share market correction--they need good news

JBmurc

19-10-2013, 01:26 PM

Yep,my main portfolio is Auckland property as well but lets face it,it was easy for me (and probably you)to buy in back in the past. these younger guys dont have that chance these days-I think that would qualify as easy to make money in hindsight.--great if you've got it ,but not easy to start from scratch.

So lets step back and take a look at things--The US has postponed their dilemma for 3 months (and shown what clowns they really are in the process,well and truly losing the respect of those few that had any)
The US share market is looking dangerously over bought with all the ''easy" money already made.
In Europe another crises looms in weeks or months.
I think more people are 'feeling' that nothing has really been solved and its just a matter of time before more bad things happen IMHO
Lots of stats coming out this week --If they are rosy,that may help to settle the nerves--if not ,it could be the catalyst for a share market correction--they need good news

Your right there Skid being 36yrs old I was very lucky to catch the last major Property boom 2000's and make some good money ....but you older guys were really one of the luckiest NZ Generation's ever in that respect some great returns and high Inflation to assets over the last 30-40yrs with many booms n busts ...I know for one in my seasonal fishing job I'm not making much more than the same guys did back in the 80's yet they could buy a couple investment properties every year,, where I could Only put down a 20% deposit on the same revalued properties today.....(so basically they were five times better off that me at present to free cash Incomes to properties) ....Auckland ,chch may be making some bubbles currently but unless we start seeing the average workers wages north of 100k I can't see how the new 20-30yr olds will get ahead in the bubble NZ property market 10% p.a = bollocks....Their true Wealth will likely only from inheritance's are kids will certainly benefit from our parents wealth in the future

As to the debt crisis the plan is "KICK THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD SOMEONE ELSE CAN DEAL WITH IT"

I see China has amassed 3.7 trillion in surplus trade .....where many western nations dig deeper into debt and don't even attempt to balance their trade deficits ....

elZorro

19-10-2013, 02:55 PM

I agree with that JB, this is a different situation now, profit is harder to find, and so the bandaid has been applied to many economies. Even over here we can see that China increasingly holds the cards. It's not an American firm that wants to buy out Synlait. On the other hand, a lot more American 'money' is going into XRO. One of these investments will be a lot safer than the other one.

Skol has trotted out the old line that gold has no intrinsic value. It does, when it's plated onto components or made into jewellery. And the discovery and mining of gold and silver employs millions of people around the world I would think.

Skol

19-10-2013, 04:35 PM

Punters buy the SPDR Gold Fund for exposure to gold, real gold.

Since July 1st GLD has sold 87 tonnes of gold

Reason-gold speculators don't want it anymore.

elZorro

19-10-2013, 06:00 PM

Punters buy the SPDR Gold Fund for exposure to gold, real gold.

Since July 1st GLD has sold 87 tonnes of gold

Reason-gold speculators don't want it anymore.

Since July 1st, nearly 3Moz of gold has been sold? Sounds like quite a lot. It's US$3.6billion worth.

Bobcat.

19-10-2013, 11:23 PM

Punters buy the SPDR Gold Fund for exposure to gold, real gold.

Since July 1st GLD has sold 87 tonnes of gold

Reason-gold speculators don't want it anymore.

Again that is in the past, Skol. I think you'll find that for the remainder of this month GLD will be buying more than selling.

Tuesday (US time) will see a lot of US economic data released (the first time since the shutdown). IMHO its employment data and a lot (not all) of other data will be dreadful ... which will be enough to fuel Gold's bullish run onward and upward to a 1350USD resistance.

BC

Skol

20-10-2013, 01:51 AM

I agree with that JB, this is a different situation now, profit is harder to find, and so the bandaid has been applied to many economies. Even over here we can see that China increasingly holds the cards. .

'China increasingly holds the cards'

Goldbugs revile America and ridicule the recent political deadlock, democracy's not perfect but sure beats the hell out of communism where the leaders are a collection of geriatric 'yes men' sitting around clapping each other and singing 'The East is Red'.

Pollution causes 470,000 premature deaths each year in China

You guys can back China with your money but I won't be. When the Vietnam war was on there was the domino theory that one country after another would fall and become communist, it was Stalin's (and subsequent leaders) and Mao's firm belief and craving that the entire world would end up a communist paradise , but in fact 20 years later the domino theory worked in reverse and communism became virtually extinct with the exception of North Korea, Cuba and China. Cuba will be the next domino to fall, probably once the Castro dictators are 6 feet under. 98,000 US citzens visited Cuba in 2012.

If there's one place on Earth the numbers are being doctored it's probably China, corruption is endemic

Why do you think there's so many Chinese diaspora? (locally known as the asian invasion) Anyone with money in China owns a house (and bank accounts) overseas to educate the kids and have a bolthole in case it goes pear-shaped in the Middle Kingdom, there's hundreds of thousands of riots there very year, it's a state secret exactly how many, but because westerners aren't killed we don't have the actual numbers since 2010, when there were 180,000 riots and strikes, an average of just under 500/day. How many were killed in Tianenmen Square is still a state secret.

There's a chance China will implode and become the next Yugoslavia.

Shanghai Composite Index

1 year +6%
2 years -10%
5 years +15%

S&P500

1 year +18%
2 years +46%
5 years +80% (92% incl dividends)

The gold bubble's burst but the goldbugs still hanker for the good ol' days of $1,920 while losing their moolah, in the meantime those that have bet on the US stockmarket have made money and will continue to do so.

I own an AMP mutual fund that's heavily weighted toward the USA, as of 2 months ago it was up 21% for the last year, gold's down 26%.

Using the WSJ mutual fund screener, in the last year, the average precious metals equity fund is about -48%, the average large cap fund was +15-20%.

The goldbug proclivity to despise the USA has cost them very dearly.

Bobcat.

20-10-2013, 09:52 AM

Good morning Skol,

Equity markets have over-reached on the back of money being printed in the USA to prop them up, and are due for a major correction (the S&P500 and DJIA in particular). Yes, tapering is off the cards until at least 2Q14 but its positive impact on sharemarkets is dwindling as the downside of continually printing money kicks in.

The price of Gold rises when there is greater love (e.g. Indians or Chinese middle class purchasing more gold as a gift or asset) or greater fear (e.g. via a loss in confidence in currency fiat (particularly the USD) as a result of expected inflation (linked to rising real interest rates) and/or dramatic world events undermining confidence in the global financial system). Read between the lines, observe the market signals, and trade accordingly.

If the PoG drops below 1300USD again it will not be for long. IMHO we are witnessing the beginnings of another bullish run (thank you Obama, you big spender you).

Buy Gold.

BC

Skol

20-10-2013, 11:26 AM

The taper will begin soon, from the FT:

Fed could taper as early as December: “The US government shutdown sabotaged a crucial month of data and dealt a blow to the world’s largest economy, but the Federal Reserve could still begin reducing its asset purchases as early as December. Analysts have slashed their growth forecasts for the fourth quarter to 2 per cent or below, with many expecting a hit of about 0.5 percentage points from the prolonged shutdown. But many said the economy would bounce back quickly with federal employees back at work.”

Skol

20-10-2013, 12:55 PM

targets are not being met in the USA for tapering and the economic data will show that. Bernanke will not start cutting before Yellen arrives (no use upsetting the applecart as part of your legacy!) tapering will not be expanded on as some goldbugs would like to believe. steady state until next year is what im banking on. (be out of OGC long before then though, jyst playing the short term rally unless it really lights up the green arrows!)

its all political, surely you can see that skol?

I'm not psychic, and attempting to read the Fed's mind could be injurious to your financial health. The psychics who predicted gold would go to $3,000, $5,000, $15,000 have all been wrong and now Mike Maloney's had a premonition of $47,000 gold.

All good for a bit of humour though. I'll stick to reading the thoughts of Chairman Warren rather than those of Glenn Beck.

I'll hand it to Beck though, he knew when to get out, you guys didn't.

Minerbarejet

20-10-2013, 04:26 PM

The mind boggles.

skid

21-10-2013, 08:26 AM

'China increasingly holds the cards'

Goldbugs revile America and ridicule the recent political deadlock, democracy's not perfect but sure beats the hell out of communism where the leaders are a collection of geriatric 'yes men' sitting around clapping each other and singing 'The East is Red'.

Pollution causes 470,000 premature deaths each year in China

You guys can back China with your money but I won't be. When the Vietnam war was on there was the domino theory that one country after another would fall and become communist, it was Stalin's (and subsequent leaders) and Mao's firm belief and craving that the entire world would end up a communist paradise , but in fact 20 years later the domino theory worked in reverse and communism became virtually extinct with the exception of North Korea, Cuba and China. Cuba will be the next domino to fall, probably once the Castro dictators are 6 feet under. 98,000 US citzens visited Cuba in 2012.

If there's one place on Earth the numbers are being doctored it's probably China, corruption is endemic

Why do you think there's so many Chinese diaspora? (locally known as the asian invasion) Anyone with money in China owns a house (and bank accounts) overseas to educate the kids and have a bolthole in case it goes pear-shaped in the Middle Kingdom, there's hundreds of thousands of riots there very year, it's a state secret exactly how many, but because westerners aren't killed we don't have the actual numbers since 2010, when there were 180,000 riots and strikes, an average of just under 500/day. How many were killed in Tianenmen Square is still a state secret.

There's a chance China will implode and become the next Yugoslavia.

Shanghai Composite Index

1 year +6%
2 years -10%
5 years +15%

S&P500

1 year +18%
2 years +46%
5 years +80% (92% incl dividends)

The gold bubble's burst but the goldbugs still hanker for the good ol' days of $1,920 while losing their moolah, in the meantime those that have bet on the US stockmarket have made money and will continue to do so.

I own an AMP mutual fund that's heavily weighted toward the USA, as of 2 months ago it was up 21% for the last year, gold's down 26%.

Using the WSJ mutual fund screener, in the last year, the average precious metals equity fund is about -48%, the average large cap fund was +15-20%.

The goldbug proclivity to despise the USA has cost them very dearly.

I think these days you would have to call China an interesting mixture of communism and capitalism

I dont necessarily agree or back them ,but I do think it is much easier to make and implement an economic policy with a communist gov.

The US is a corporate gov ,pretending to be a democracy

In many ways they are very similar-except that the'' pretending to be a democracy'' creates expensive stumbling blocks along the way.
The corporate powers will dictate in the end of course ,but the collateral damage
from the make believe democracy comes at an economic cost.

miner

21-10-2013, 11:16 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWI4p8KuJfs

Skol

21-10-2013, 11:39 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWI4p8KuJfs

I haven't 1hr 18m available to watch it. What is it? A paranoid, schizo, CIA conspiracy theory doco?

Bobcat.

21-10-2013, 12:18 PM

I haven't 1hr 18m available to watch it. What is it? A paranoid, schizo, CIA conspiracy theory doco?

Yes, I'm halfway through, and it's not half bad.

Daytr

21-10-2013, 12:52 PM

Gold is looking pretty good at the moment. Early days, but think we are going to crack on toward $1550 resistance, a break of that should mean new highs. The next few months looks like a perfect storm for gold. Physical demand surging, ETF selling waning & the US sovereign rating likely to be downgraded & continued talk about raising the debt ceiling. Its amasing how the banks flip flop so easily, now there are several calling it higher, only last week the same banks calling it lower! Waste of space. When I wrote price forecasts for banks I stuck my neck out & stuck to my predictions until something changed in the market to alter my view. If I got it wrong, then you take it on the chin, but you don't flip flop from week to week! That's a traders prerogative !

Daytr

21-10-2013, 01:05 PM

Hi Moosie, no I don't get Goldman's research other than what gets publicized. I get Barclays which is quite good especially on physical demand etc also BOA & a few others.

Banks merely write their predictions to sway investors in whichever direction suits them to make the most money. Goldman usually leads does it not? Do you have any links for the latest "forecasts" Daytr? (much appreciated if ya do!)

Bobcat.

21-10-2013, 03:28 PM

Bobcat.

21-10-2013, 04:11 PM

Ouch, that 5 year chart for AQG and OZL is hard to look at! Shows what happens when your sector is the most hated on the stock market!

True but not for long...once there's wind in their sails, watch 'em fly. I got into PDN last week and they too have a two year graph that's nose dived (Uranium diggers have also been out of favour) but I sense a turnaround there too. Up 20% since trading at 38c last week.

JBmurc

21-10-2013, 05:10 PM

Hey Skol, did you get into AQG this morning at 277 ?

I've just now also bought into OZL, which now looks oversold IMHO.

PGI and OGC also look underpriced, although don't wait too long...you'll miss the gold train (Price of Gold up again today to sit around USD1320). These stocks will lift this week.

BC

PGI getting smashed again today ,,looking forward to seeing the last of these fearful sellers
Did buy a few more my new av. 6.8c confident they,ll be in the money early next year on profitable qtr report

Looking for good to move higher into 2014

Bobcat.

21-10-2013, 06:26 PM

I'll be buying more PGI if its nervy sellers take the sp down to 4c. It's got close today.

Bobcat.

22-10-2013, 08:23 AM

ETF Securities: Gold Forward Rates Signal Strong Demand

Monday October 21, 2013 9:18 AM

London Bullion Market Association gold forward rates have turned negative again, highlighting an apparent physical gold shortage, says ETF Securities. “It is interesting to note that LBMA gold forward rates have again dipped into negative territory, highlighting that physical demand – possibly from central banks as well as short covering – remains strong,” ETF Securities says. “This tightness has continued into the new week, indicating this was not solely short-term pre-debt deadline hedging and post-agreement short-covering demand. It seems clear the fact the U.S. debt issue has not been resolved, but only postponed, is accelerating central banks’ and private investors’ search for alternatives to the U.S. dollar as a reserve asset, with gold one of the few viable alternatives.”

By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com

peat

22-10-2013, 10:57 AM

here comes the run 4929

almost time to post another picture of Liberace.

JBmurc

23-10-2013, 06:43 AM

Good run overnight some fat profits for the bargain PM shares brought of late ...us jobs growth heading south at a rate of knots.... Q.E min till early 2014 ... IMHO Q.E Isn,t going away for along time

skid

23-10-2013, 09:06 AM

US economy takes a hit with bad job growth stats--will this give the share market the wobbles?
The experts can blow all the hot air they want,but when joe lunch box loses his job--that aint good for the economy.
A month ago gold was looking to be on the back foot and the us economy some thought was on the mend--now ehhh not so sure about that US economy (again)

skid

23-10-2013, 09:15 AM

Next report on Nov 8 will reflect the impact of the gov. shut down--not looking pretty ATM.
At this stage ,they would be fool hearty to consider tapering in the short term--so on it goes ,between a rock and a hard place.
Gold merely reflects this situation

Skol

23-10-2013, 09:31 AM

digger

23-10-2013, 10:26 AM

So what do you goldbugs and antigoldbugs think of the two sudden jump up of the gold price in the last two weeks.? From me it seems to show some big money source taking an early stake before others get in . Thoughts as very interesting jumps both seeming to be a latter type formation.

Logen Ninefingers

23-10-2013, 12:04 PM

Poor Skol....with the 'no taper' story set to extend through the next Fed meeting and onwards, it's a good time to be holding gold and gold stocks.

Bobcat.

23-10-2013, 01:45 PM

SPDR Gold Fund down another 12 tonnes in the last 2 days, the selling is increasing.

Meanwhile the S&P500 +22.32% YTD.

Gold YTD -21%.

Stick with it boys, the bankruptcy laws aren't as tough as they used to be.

Skolly - what turns your wheels, matey? Are you really only going to be happy when you see a trendline that's 6months in the making? Do that and you will miss the opportunity to get in early enough to make significant profit. Only the very nervous, timid and cautious drive with one eye continually on their rear view mirror.

Buy low on the way up, sell high on the way down. Gold is on the way up and has been for over a week.

I tried to help you with recommended buys last week on AQG, OGC and PGI - did you get off your hands and buy some? All have climbed over 10% through the past 4 business days.

It's not too late to get on the gold wagon - expect some precious metal diggers to trade down a bit after 2pm on the ASX. You could buy into them then.

Happy sailing...

BC

Daytr

23-10-2013, 02:10 PM

Gold set to go a lot higher...

As per previous posts, gold should target $1550 from here.
Last night's break above $1330 was a critical step & there appears to be a confluence of factors that should drive much higher over the next 3-6 months imo.

Physical demand is strong.
ETF selling dwindling.
US debt ceiling issues on-going & likely downgrade of the US's sovereign rating.

This should be enough to get gold $200 higher imo.
From there & this is the $64M question, does investment sentiment then turn & drive gold back through $1550 & target the previous highs. If the ETF net demand turns positive it's game on in my opinion. Combine that with new ETFs coming on stream in Asia & Russia to add to demand.

Curve balls as I see them.

QE is dumped because its simply not working. Gold would probably get initially sold off, however equity markets more so & I think gold would bounce back quickly & stronger.

US data improves, unlikely in the current environment of sovereign debt uncertainty.

The US agrees to face its debt problem by cutting more spending & raising taxes. Again a negative for equities & bullish for gold imo.

I have been trading in & out of gold stocks aggressively but I am looking to set & hold & ride this as I think we have just started a phase that will have multiple legs I may get in & out at times but will be far less willing to sell unless I se another screaming opportunity to capitalize on.

Well if Thursday is rally night, what was Tuesday (last night!) Could Thursday even be bigger & we crack on toward $1380?

Bobcat.

23-10-2013, 03:39 PM

Next critical price resistance to bust through is USD1350-ish. This is the next high on the now defunct downward trendline, as well as where it hits the bollinger band. Shouldn't be too difficult given the spikes of late - currently sitting just 9 clicks south.

Next one after that is the peak following the false positive on the night of the last FOMC meeting (1380-ish), which I'm expecting to be more of a challenge. My trigger finger will be getting itchy at that price, but until then the challenge is mine -- i.e. to sit on my hands when it gets tempting to take profit (I made a mistake this morning selling PRU on a 14% spike).

There's wind in them thar' sails....

Some gold diggers (SCI, TRY, GOR, AZS) are still not budging, which is interesting (still a buying opportunity?)

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-10-22/template_jimw.htm

Logen Ninefingers

23-10-2013, 04:16 PM

Curve balls as I see them.

QE is dumped because its simply not working. Gold would probably get initially sold off, however equity markets more so & I think gold would bounce back quickly & stronger.

US data improves, unlikely in the current environment of sovereign debt uncertainty.

The US agrees to face its debt problem by cutting more spending & raising taxes. Again a negative for equities & bullish for gold imo.

- QE won't be dumped. The only game in town in the US now is the super-normal profits US corporates are enjoying due to the effects of QE i.e. ultra-low interest rates. The cost of borrowing and doing business has never been better. This is reflected in the share market. The Fed cannot taper because the wider US economy is a basket case.....wages are not rising, employment growth is floundering, jobless rates - when including those who have given up looking for work - are at around 23%. If the Fed tapers and the have a scenario of a tanking share-market coupled with the above 'situation at large', then the game is up. It will be up next year anyway once corporates start to disappoint the market by failing to exceed their QE stoked super-normal profits.

- US data will not improve. They have on-going chronic governance issues which will continue to play out. The whole house of cards is built on QE and the maintanance of artificially low interest rates.

- The US will not face up to it's debt problem; the Republicans and Democrats have very little room for compromise. Republicans have made zero tax increases a bottom line, and likewise the Democrats will continue with spending to support the sections of US society that are shattered and languishing i.e. their support base who they will not abandon.

Skol

23-10-2013, 04:56 PM

Friend Daytr says "ETF selling is dwindling"

Take notice of this dude at risk of your financial health. The SPDR Gold Fund has sold recently around 1 tonne per day, now it's 6 tonnes per day.

Bobcat.

23-10-2013, 07:09 PM

Friend Daytr says "ETF selling is dwindling"

Take notice of this dude at risk of your financial health. The SPDR Gold Fund has sold recently around 1 tonne per day, now it's 6 tonnes per day.

Asia is buying...

digger

23-10-2013, 09:00 PM

Daytr

23-10-2013, 09:53 PM

Great to see you haven't changed Skol. You have no foundation for a comment like that. I have you on ignore for a reason but saw what you wrote thru BC's reply. Very low Skol, but I wouldn't expect anything less.

Logen, I am not saying this is what they will do, but I think its what they need to do. They actually need to normalize the market & let the share market do the same. Close the deficit gap through cutting Govt spending & closing international tax avoidance. Also one thing I have called for them to do is Govt guarantee privatized infrastructure builds. Similar to a 1930s style building program however as the Govt can't afford to finance it let them be privately funded & operated but Govt guarantee the funding to give confidence. US infrastructure generally is in decay & has been for the last 20 years. So it would be money well spent & create jobs. Anyway this is what I think they should do, I'm not saying that actually will.

elZorro

24-10-2013, 07:24 AM

I like those ideas Daytr. The USA is also short of profits generally, and this means fundamentally that their energy costs are now too high.

THE USA are one of the international partners in the ITER Fusion plant in France, planned to be completed in 2020, which could produce 10x more heat than it takes to keep it going. They're laying the foundations at the moment, and tweaking the design.

http://news.sciencemag.org/europe/2013/10/hot-news-fusion-researchers-recommend-iter-design-tweaks

There are many other carbon neutral fuel areas to work on, and so like the 1930s building program you speak of, this would be a smart area to divert resources to.

Skol

24-10-2013, 08:33 AM

Great to see you haven't changed Skol. You have no foundation for a comment like that. I have you on ignore for a reason but saw what you wrote thru BC's reply. Very low Skol, but I wouldn't expect anything less.

Get off it Daytr, you haven't got me on ignore at all. I have every reason to make a comment like that, it's true, the SPDR Gold Fund is selling, big time, and I can prove it if you'd like me to, but that wouldn't be very convenient, would it, it could affect your client base.

Daytr

24-10-2013, 12:32 PM

Skol, I do have you on ignore & I should just leave it at that as you are a waste of time. However if you have someone on ignore you can go & see what an individual post is, as I did for your last post.

From Forbes, who you so often reference.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2013/10/21/focus-gold-etf-outflows-pick-up-in-october-but-still-a-trickle-compared-to-2q/

October so far has picked up compared to Aug & Sep which were at a trickle but even still October outflows as at the 20th of Oct were half of the rate for Q2.

So again Skol, your one liners & name calling & whatever else you resort to just simply is below contempt. I wouldn't mind your bearish view on gold if you actually had some balance & also didn't resort to name calling & facts that are selective at best if not pure fiction.

To the rest of the thread, gold held $1330 overnight which is a good sign technically. We are now at Thursday, rally night! Hold on to your hats! Could be wrong & perhaps a gold needs a little more time before it attacks the next level, however its the technical picture that most of the big players look at is definitely pointing to higher imo.

Daytr

25-10-2013, 07:14 AM

Gold through $1350 briefly, be good to see a close above. Off fishing for the day so good luck all & happy Friday. BOA turned bullish on gold overnight FYI. How long will it be before Goldmans flip-flops again!

elZorro

25-10-2013, 07:57 AM

A dropping trend in US$ is showing up. Of course it might stabilise down there, or it might keep dropping for a bit.

JBmurc

25-10-2013, 10:39 AM

Gold like clockwork goes up strongly on a thursday so many times recently ....watch for a push lower tonight ..like clockwork >>>>bring on the breakout sick of the games

Logen Ninefingers

25-10-2013, 01:08 PM

I want the gold price to stay down for a while yet. I should have more funds coming my way soon & I want to pile into more gold stocks while this buying opportunity holds.

I see the scum bags at Goldman Sachs are trying to talk gold down for 2014, saying that the US data will improve and demand for it will decrease; wishful thinking, and the flipside of that coin will be their worst nightmare if the data worsens .....this will be like King Canute trying to hold back the ocean as the demand for physical gold swamps the paper manipulators. Then it will be shown that there is actually a shortage of the stuff and the price will skyrocket.

Skol

25-10-2013, 02:13 PM

Logen Ninefingers

25-10-2013, 03:00 PM

There's no shortage of gold, it's a myth perpetrated by naive goldbugs, the SPDR Gold Fund has 878 tonnes which it's selling at the rate of several tonnes/day.

It used to have 1,500 tonnes, but there's persistent selling since the bubble popped.

GLD sold another 2 tonnes last night.

So if the SPDR Gold Fund divests themselves of all their gold, won't they by definition have a shortage of available gold to either hold or sell? And gold changing hands from a willing buyer to a willing seller did not increase the amount of available gold, it decreases in because the SPDR 'Gold' Fund doesn't have their signature commodity in anywhere near the same quantities anymore.

Skol

25-10-2013, 03:06 PM

No, because SPDR GLD fund is only one of many gold ETF's that are selling, gold doesn't go down in a straight line, it will increase and decrease as it makes it way south.

Daytr

26-10-2013, 04:00 PM

Daytr

26-10-2013, 04:00 PM

JBmurc

27-10-2013, 03:40 PM

Nice close for gold for the week, above $1550. Must admit I thought we would see a little pull back going into the weekend. Gold set up nicely now for a good week ahead.

Seems I'm not the only one calling for $1550. See link

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101141701

$1550 now that would be a good end for the year esp. To the ones who have been buying up cheap PM shares ... They like they did on the way down should outperform the movement of the PM
Personal be happy to see the ETF sell completely out of holdings ,,,be interesting to see how much real metal they actually hold

Skol

27-10-2013, 03:51 PM

$1550 now that would be a good end for the year esp. To the ones who have been buying up cheap PM shares ... They like they did on the way down should outperform the movement of the PM
Personal be happy to see the ETF sell completely out of holdings ,,,be interesting to see how much real metal they actually hold

There's lots of gold ETF's, but SPDR GLD does have the gold, all 872 tonnes of it, on their website you can see the serial numbers of the bars. The 872 tonnes that SPDR GLD has is just the tip of the iceberg.

JBmurc

27-10-2013, 05:08 PM

There's lots of gold ETF's, but SPDR GLD does have the gold, all 872 tonnes of it, on their website you can see the serial numbers of the bars. The 872 tonnes that SPDR GLD has is just the tip of the iceberg.

There have been massive redemptions of physical gold this year from SPDR GLD so some holders want the Bars and not the paper contracts >>>much like Germany wanted there Bars of Gold.. but were told in Several years we should be able to give it back...

Skol

27-10-2013, 05:11 PM

Something's amiss, SPDR (and probably other ETF's) unloading tonnes of gold yet the price is rising, beginning to look like a pump and dump.

JBmurc

27-10-2013, 05:36 PM

4953

There's lots of gold ETF's, but SPDR GLD does have the gold, all 872 tonnes of it, on their website you can see the serial numbers of the bars. The 872 tonnes that SPDR GLD has is just the tip of the iceberg.

There have been massive redemptions of physical gold this year from SPDR GLD so some holders want the Bars and not the paper contracts >>>much like Germany wanted there Bars of Gold.. but were told in Several years we should be able to give it back...

--

Skol

27-10-2013, 07:59 PM

Daytr

28-10-2013, 01:34 PM

Supply crunch about to hit India according to UBS.
Sales for Diwali season expected to be 15% higher than last year.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/pre-diwali-gold-jewellery-sales-to-rise-15-20-this-yr-113102600816_1.html?

JBmurc

28-10-2013, 11:32 PM

We've been through that before about the debt, in fact US households have less debt than they've had for 7 years, but getting back to a pump 'n dump, someone your age should read this, I remember it very clearly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday

Yeah I know all about "Silver thursday" thats when the The CBOT, backed by the CFTC, finally decided to put a stop to the Hunt brothers’ buying—by changing its rules.,,,Margin requirements were suddenly raised, and traders could hold no more than 3 million ounces of silver futures; those holding more were placed in forced liquidation. Bunker Hunt cried foul, accusing exchange board members of having a financial interest in the markets—an accusation that would later be proven true....

On the same day that silver hit $50 and silver futures topped out at $52.50, gold’s price set a new record of $850 and gold futures peaked at $892. COMEX, terrified that it would be forced into default, announced—with the backing of the CFTC—that trading in silver would be limited to liquidation orders only, eliminating any buyers....Free money anyone ???

If the free markets aren't doing what the bosses want change the rules...

With no new buyers, the price of silver could not go up. So this rule was basically the same as saying, “Until this rule is lifted, the price of silver will only go down.” Of course, silver began to plummet, and on that same day so did gold.....

thats the way markets work in the 21st century ,the Hunt brothers were sacrificial lambs. The Hunt brothers broke no laws. The CFTC, COMEX and CBOT simply changed the rules in the middle of the game. And the U.S. government, eager to stop the rush to gold and silver that threatened the credibility of its own NEW fiat currency, had no problem looking the other way....these days as we have seen in so many markets.... certain interests will manipulate prices to suit their motives ....JP morgan chase is the king of unlawful operations paying billion's in fines p.a but if the illegal operations make billion's more in profit's no one goes to jail it's smart investing right

Skol

29-10-2013, 02:02 AM

Aaaah, hold on, didn't the Hunt Brothers manipulate the market?

Daytr

29-10-2013, 08:37 AM

Gold off to the races now, rebuilding its reputation like the caped crusader himself.

Not sure it will race faster than a speeding bullet, although at times it will, especially when the Western investment sentiment swings positive & the likes of Goldmans capitulates, again!

The graph will look like it leapt tall buildings in a single bound, as gold does, it will have large spikes, I am expecting the volatility to increase again with it.

Its SHOWTIME!http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/share.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/post_single.asp?fid=279&msgid=12478938&v=300&pubid=ra-5204535253dfaa05)

Skol

29-10-2013, 08:57 AM

This what Daytr calls 'off to the races'.

Skol

29-10-2013, 09:02 AM

This is one that I own, this is 'off to the races'.

A real company that does real things.

Bobcat.

29-10-2013, 09:15 AM

Skol,
We all know that from Jan this year until early October, Gold was in a bear market...you are not contributing any insights reminding us of that, or by taking a cheap shot at Daytr.

Over the past week, however, there has been a definitive change in market sentiment towards gold (you don't need to research very deeply to see that). Daytr, myself, JBMurc, etc have been trying for three weeks now to pursuade you and inform others of this turnaround...but you have chosen to ignore it (to save face?) and worse -- mislead others in your stubborn belief that the POG was/is still about to plummet.

Your arguments are now very thin, and it is getting increasingly easy for us to ignore them, especially when you not only mislead people in your ignorance (that we can forgive) but also deliberately misinterpret what your fellow posters are meaning in their posts so as to appear to still be the guru (which of course to anyone bothered to search through your track record of posts, clearly you are not).

Like Datyr, I too am putting you on 'ignore' until such a time that you a) admit you have been wrong, and b) begin providing something better informed and more constructive to this debate.

BC

Skol

29-10-2013, 10:21 AM

Bobcat,

You can put me on ignore if you want, it's not something I'm likely to have a nervous breakdown over. Even if I was given some gold, I'd sell it at these prices, because it isn't going to last, and when it falls it'll be like earlier this year, nearly vertical. Gold doesn't produce an income, is still in a bear market and will probably continue to be.

I don't pretend to be a guru, I'm here for a bit of education and a laugh, but some posters like you obviously have a sense of humour failure at short notice. You will never convince me to own gold, my stockmarket punts are doing much better, like the one above, and I get cheques in the mail as well.

Here's a headline from the AFR.

"All the drama coming out of Washington in the last few weeks has obscured some seriously good news: federal government spending is falling. And not at a trickle: think the White Cliffs of Dover."

I picked the top in silver exactly, that wasn't too bad was it, and I picked that oil, gold and silver were bubbles, which have subsequently burst. When bubble bursts, there's no going back, unless you make some short-term trades, and I got a huge amount of pleasure out of lampooning posters and of course the financial 'experts' like Mike Maloney, Peter Schiff, the Aden sisters, Jim Rickards, Eric Hommelberg and a multitude of others with their idiot predictions of $5,000, $10,000, $15,000.

That was great fun!

skid

29-10-2013, 10:39 AM

Yep,everything is under control at the ole US government folks--things are just Tickity Boo over there---''pay no attention to the man behind the curtain''

skid

29-10-2013, 10:42 AM

:)I think I heard something about the city of Detroit cutting its spending as well...

JBmurc

29-10-2013, 10:49 AM

Aaaah, hold on, didn't the Hunt Brothers manipulate the market?

Well thats what we are told ....fact is for a start they just brought physical which was fine when they started to take on leverage they caused problems to the marketeers of the leverage as trying to deliver the real amount of metal would have bankrupted the phony futures system so it was stated "manipulation" when the hunts just wanted more metal at the price paid for the FIAT silver paper contracts..

the real physical Silver market is tiny .....the problem was the paper market grew far to big the COMEX etc didn't stop the hunt bros and others buying up huge amount of long future orders till it was clear the buyers actually wanted the Silver BARS then it was panic stations !!...see when it's just numbers on a screen it can be controlled but when it comes to the real item ...no no

why the hunts and others wanted silver bullion---
--The period leading up to silver’s spike was fraught with inflation, stagnant economic growth, and political upheaval. In 1965, President Johnson increased deficit spending to finance his Great Society programs, tax cuts, and an unpopular war in Vietnam.

In 1971, realizing that the U.S. Treasury didn’t have enough gold to redeem all the dollars held by foreign governments and investors, President Nixon pulled the United States off the Bretton Woods monetary system—the last vestiges of a pseudo gold standard. This action effectively created a worldwide fiat currency system that continues to this day.(and hasn't it been great just look at the bubbles created)

The Hunt brothers could see the writing on the wall. With their great wealth being steadily eroded by skyrocketing inflation, they needed an asset to which they could safely anchor their massive oil fortune. At first, they thought of gold—history’s safe haven. But in 1973, U.S. citizens were not allowed to own gold, and Bunker Hunt thought the gold market was too easily manipulated for government purposes.1

So the Hunt Brothers turned to silver, and started buying it at about $2 an ounce. Total world silver production was dropping, while industrial silver consumption was exploding. And once government and private silver stocks ran out, the shortfall between supply and demand was certain to drive the price of silver skyward...

http://themonetaryfuture.blogspot.co.nz/2009/01/hunt-brothers-demanded-physical.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article27513.html

Skol you picked the top in the metals , oil etc because pretty much every day you stated it was going down ...going crash etc ...now had you been neutral or bullish then had changed bearish round the time the downtrend started
then yes you would have been right

Skol

29-10-2013, 11:33 AM

:)I think I heard something about the city of Detroit cutting its spending as well...

Yes it is, I know people who've just moved there and bought a house for $35,000. But this is one of the reasons the city is in dire straits.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/10/10/ex-detroit-mayor-sentenced-to-28-years-in-prison-for-corruption/

Bobcat.

29-10-2013, 11:58 AM

Troy (TRY) are looking good:

Argentina (Casposa) :
Quarterly gold of 14koz and silver of 356koz
Cash cost of only $AUD891/oz
30% increase in waste development and first stope production.

Brazil (Androhinas) :
Quarterly gold of 8koz at only $AUD785/oz.

Guyana (West Omai):
formal permitting, mine planning etc
Upgradeed Indicated resource of 3moz with grade between 4.7g/t and 6.2g/t.

Acquisition of Azimuth looks to be going smoothly.

Latest report can be found at:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131029/pdf/42kdd62xv2zb39.pdf

Skol

29-10-2013, 12:00 PM

JB,

"Skol you picked the top in the metals , oil etc because pretty much every day you stated it was going down ...going crash etc ...now had you been neutral or bullish then had changed bearish round the time the downtrend started
then yes you would have been right"

Incorrect, I picked the top in silver EXACTLY and sold silver, at more than the going price, remember?

While you were extolling the virtues of Jason Hommel and other scamsters and telling us silver was going to unheard-of heights.

When I'm in the USA I often read about suckers that threw heaps at gold and silver and are now poverty-stricken, a hard lesson, but it happens all the time, gold, silver, property, scams, tulips, penny dreadfuls, pyramid schemes etc.

Lots of suckers listened to Glenn Beck about how the USA was going bankrupt, hyperinflation, the EU would collapse and gold was going to the moon. lol

And did it happen, of course not, only patsys believe that codswallop, but Beck sure got out at the right time, it was impeccable.

And of course JB, let me remind you of one of your 'predictions'.

On the 25/4/2011, you predicted that silver would be $60-$70 at the end of 2011. Yeah, right!

There's a New World being built not far from here JB, the missus won't have to take your $100 voucher quite so far this year.

JBmurc

29-10-2013, 01:29 PM

You also predicted a sub $10oz silver price skol and gold to be $700 your whole bubble bleat doesn't hold water as we have seen of late Gold/Silver is not crashing but has formed a strong support base just above average production costs funny that just like Oil average costs round 70-80bbl these prices will increase as costs always increase along with the aways increasing demand...your dreams of extreme low PM prices are just that DREAMS like you low 30-40bbl OIL fantasy>>but keep it coming we near have 400 pages of it

Skol

29-10-2013, 01:35 PM

No worries about gold and silver headed further south, the fun's just started, after the 1980 gold and silver rout it took several years for them to hit rock bottom, but I guess Jason Hommel's still your best buddy because he says silver's going to $500/oz.

I'm amazed these scamsters still have the audacity to publish this crap, they need to be put in jail.

Actually it's just come my notice they did put him in jail.

Daytr

29-10-2013, 01:40 PM

Guys, your decision, but put Skol on ignore is my suggestion. A contrary view with foundations I can handle & even encourage as it makes me reexamine my own view. IMO Skol adds no value, but that's just my opinion & you can make your own mind up.

Bobcat.

29-10-2013, 01:57 PM

This week's FOMC (Federal Oversight) meeting is likely to have some influence on both the USD and the price of Gold. I expect that they will try to talk up the US dollar which (justifiably) has suffered much disfavour lately.

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-10-28/JW_forexcharts.html

However, anything that trembles the market to bring another correction to the S&P500, DJIA and other major indices will almost certainly be in Gold's favour. I know that many analysts are predicting a bullish Equity market (esp the FTSE and Nikkei) as a result of the US Fed continuing to pump $USD80B/month into the economy (i.e. through banks to buy more bonds) which keeps the cost of credit artificially low. But this artificial propping up of a failed economy can only persist for a little longer. We are about due for some more fear driven demand and this week IMHO is likely to produce some fear of inflation and other downsides to this short-sighted fiscal approach.

Gold may come off a little before it rises again (as a wave) but its momentum shift upward now looks to be well established. For the first time in 9 months, the bulls have technical parity with the bears, and after this week may well be confirmed as the dominant party.

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-10-28/template_jimw.htm

BC