Gold

[Skol]

I here it has been reported by some gold analysts that JP Morgan is now long gold and silver on Comex"

Yeah, probably on KWN or Silverbear cafe. lol

[Daytr]

JP Morgan have openly stated they are bullish gold & its a buy. I did hear that they were short silver tho, not sure if that last part is accurate as the the gold call was from their own publication whereas the silver position was 2nd hand. Lets be honest the banks have generally called gold pretty badly in recent years & imo have lost a lot of intellectual capital in recent years in commodities anyway. The quality of their research is generally pretty poor. Barclays aren't too bad & Goldmans have their moments. Goldman used to be the commodity guru especially in gold as they saw so much of the flow particularly hedge fund & central banks.

[Skol]

Let me get this right!

Goldbugs, who hate JP Morgan, are saying buy gold because JP Morgan say buy gold.

Correct?

Shouldn't goldbugs be selling? They've been telling anyone who'll listen that JP Morgan were shorting gold all the way to $1,920.

------------------------------..

J.P. Morgan slashes 2013 metals forecasts
By Sara Sjolin | MarketWatch – Tue, May 28, 2013 5:20 AM EDT..

.LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Analysts at J.P. Morgan Cazenove on Tuesday lowered the price forecasts for most metals, including cutting the outlook for gold in 2013 to $1,595 an ounce from $1,745 expected previously. In the short term, the analysts slashed the gold outlook 18% to $1,450 in the second quarter, while lowering the 2015 forecast by 5% to $1,650 an ounce. The copper outlook for 2013 was cut 4% to $3.50 a pound, or $7,707 per tonne from $8,032 per tonne expected previously. For silver, the 2013 forecast was cut to $27.89 an ounce from $30.01. Gold for August delivery lost $8.60 to $1,379.20 an ounce in Tuesday's trade, while Silver for July dropped 23 cents to $22.27 on ounce. July copper added 1 cent to $3.31 a pound.
--------------------

[Daytr]

There is sooo much wrong with what you have said there Skol. So no you didn't get it right haha.
1) I'm not a gold bug & don't believe in conspiracy theories. 2) All I was saying was that JP Morgan have gone bullish gold as it was up for debate. Quite frankly the banks have been terrible at calling gold so on one count you may be right, maybe we should be looking to sell as JP could be a reverse indicator. The banks views blow in the breeze from all directions with little conviction imo. Interesting night with gold oscillating. Its Thursday night which is usually rally night so we may see a good crack at $1400. Well that's about as scientific as some of the banks research I see!

[QUOTE=Skol;423084]Let me get this right!

Goldbugs, who hate JP Morgan, are saying buy gold because JP Morgan say buy gold.

Correct?

Shouldn't goldbugs be selling? They've been telling anyone who'll listen that JP Morgan were shorting gold all the way to $1,920.

[Skol]

"A good crack at $1,400"

lol Daytr, hope you've got a plan in place for fending off angry clients.

[Daytr]

Cheer up Skol, that was a bit nastyl... I'll take a 1.5% rally. And at least that's 1.5% is in the up direction not down as you would favor. Portfolio up 5% this morning so pretty happy about that as well so, no I won't need to be dealing with unhappy clients, quite the opposite in fact. Happy Friday all!

Gold does have a fair bit of work to do to break above near term resistance so wouldn't be surprised to see a short term pull back, although the way things are hotting up in the Mid/East that could also be a catalyst for a spike higher.

[Skol]

Ron Paul, the gold juniors dude, and champion of the gold standard has his assets distributed accordingly:
--------------------

Paul's investment portfolio is dedicated almost solely to hard assets, with 64 percent in gold and silver miners, 21 percent in real estate and 15 percent in cash.
-------------------------

Is he still solvent? lol

A former politician who should've stuck to delivering babies.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100978321

[elZorro]

Skol, you'll be pleased to note that Gold has bolted upwards by nearly $30 to look like resting just under $1400 on Friday, during US trading. Buy stops were exceeded, and that pushed in onwards. The catalyst was a (lower than expected) new home sales report, which must have come out at 10.00 EDT.

Good details in this Kitco note.

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-08-23/KitcoNews_20130823DC-METALS%20OUTLOOK-Strong-Close-Portends-Higher-Prices-For-Gold-Next-Week.html

[JBmurc]

Yes great move in gold and silver even better of late

[Minerbarejet]

and dont forget copper that has gone back up 10% recently

[skid]

You've got that one wrong buddy!!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/15/us-berkshire-buffett-idUSBRE97E0FS20130815

Berkshire Hathaway spent $4.64 billion on equity investments in the last quarter.

OMG --------------goldbugs. lol, no wonder they eventually get cleaned out.

hahahaha

http://www.moneynews.com/Outbrain/billionaires-dump-economist-stock/2012/08/29/id/450265?PROMO_CODE=FE8A-1

[Daytr]

Yep another great night for gold, really want to see gold break above $1420 before getting too excited. With the ETF selling seemingly completed (well at least for now) & Asia still buying, gold could be in for another big run. The US data has been mixed in the last week or two also adding to the equation. Gold stocks outperforming gold as expected & should see more on Monday following on from gold's performance on Friday night. Portfolio closed up 12% on Friday, be pretty happy to see similar again, but that's probably pushing it...

[digger]

Yep another great night for gold, really want to see gold break above $1420 before getting too excited. With the ETF selling seemingly completed (well at least for now) & Asia still buying, gold could be in for another big run. The US data has been mixed in the last week or two also adding to the equation. Gold stocks outperforming gold as expected & should see more on Monday following on from gold's performance on Friday night. Portfolio closed up 12% on Friday, be pretty happy to see similar again, but that's probably pushing it...

Daytr I would say the appearance of EFT selling being completed is just that---appearance. Gold has just gone up IMHO because of Egypt but especially Syria. Politics and uncertainty of outcome.

[Daytr]

Moosie, as far as I'm aware Soros bought call options in gold juniors when he sold out of his gold posi. So he was long gold juniors. If he did go short he would be down a truckload as gold juniors have shot up double digits in recent weeks.

Not sure Mid/East has had that much impact on gold although it is a contributing factor. Stock markets have been taking a breather & some of the US data has been less convincing of late which I think has more to do with it & of course shorts covering.

[elZorro]

Moosie, as far as I'm aware Soros bought call options in gold juniors when he sold out of his gold posi. So he was long gold juniors. If he did go short he would be down a truckload as gold juniors have shot up double digits in recent weeks.

Not sure Mid/East has had that much impact on gold although it is a contributing factor. Stock markets have been taking a breather & some of the US data has been less convincing of late which I think has more to do with it & of course shorts covering.

Shorts covering Daytr, do you mean banks like JP Morgan Chase? Equedia had this item on the weird NASDAQ trading halt, probably caused by rapid trading in AAPL as it dropped below the magic $500 a share. Further on it shows JP Morgan buying up Comex gold in a big way.

http://www.equedia.com/the-truth-behind-the-nasdaq-glitch-and-the-gold-market/?utm_source=August%2025%2C%202013&utm_campaign=August%2025%2C%202013&utm_medium=email

[Daytr]

elzorro, I just meant the speculative market generally. Everyone was so bearish & the market got far too one sided when it was pushed down to $1180. So since then a lot of those short speculative positions would have been covered, i.e. bought back. The market is yet to go long imo & if does so we should see it back toward $1550. The Mid/East is certainly heating up especially likely intervention in Syria so we should see gold get more out of that yet.

[Skol]

If it mirrors 1980, which it has almost exactly, could go to around $1,500 before it begins its final decline, probably for 20 years.

[JBmurc]

some big gains for Goldies again today in the ASX200 ....

[JBmurc]

Hey skol how about a update on gold silver

[Daytr]

Could be on the button Moosie, wouldn't be surprised to see a pull back & looks like this morning it may have started. Be nice to see it hold support though.


Gold appears to be inside a step formation (a la 2012). Should be a re-test of $1387 with a push higher if all keeps up. $1500 may be a new test sooner rather than later.

[airedale]

Hey skol how about a update on gold silver

Silence is golden.

[Skol]

Hey skol how about a update on gold silver

I left NZ the other day and the price was $1396.

Now I'm back and the price is $1396.

Update complete.

However, with QE about to end and gold edging up as per 1980 after the initial crash, what does that mean to the trained mind JB?

Unless 'it's different this time'.

Hahahaha, the 4 most expensive words in investing. Sir John Templeton.

[JBmurc]

Right so old uncle Benny going turn of the tap ....who's going buy all the new debt ? US absolutely needs foreign creditors to finance their trade deficit, which over the past 12 months was around $500 billion.....but the foreign creditors are moving away from funding the US excess spending .....IMHO the talk of tapering or stopping the ongoing Q.E is just that TALK

[Daytr]

The market somewhat is pricing in tapering & that is why the US stock markets have underperformed in recent weeks & gold has benefitted. IMO the premium QE put into gold came out a long time ago & went into the stock market & is now hesitant due to the unknown timetable of the Fed.

In saying all that I get the feeling gold is in for a breather & pullback toward $1380. I freed up some cash today in case as I think any pull back will be temporary so will be a buy opportunity. Either way if I'm wrong I still have plenty invested, but if I'm right then I can top up.

[digger]

While the talk goes on here for and against the gold price seems in the last two months to be flirting with the 1400 level. Remember last April it fell to 1320 and the movement since in really is about 1400 average. Now long run where from here --that is the question?????

[Daytr]

Hi Moosie, why will gold have a long term fall back? And all empires come to an end & if you can't see that the writing is on the wall for the US unless they make drastic change to their political system as well as their sovereign debt then you are in the dark ages my friend. The US has major structural issues they have been unwilling to face as the political cost is too much. I'm not saying its all doom & gloom for the US & they could trudge along for some time in their current state & slowly lose their sovereign credibility through a mountain of debt that just keeps ballooning. Remember how Regan busted the USSR, by out spending them until they were bankrupt. The US haven't learnt from their own lesson. And then there is Europe & Japan all major issues yet to be addressed. And who keeps buying gold Asia & the biggest fastest growing middle class in the world by a long way. I don't necessarily believe in gold but there are enough people that do & that's good enough for me. If 85Bln a month of stimulus for years & virtually zero interest rates can't spark an economy then there are some serious issues that need addressing.


Hehe, the gold price looks like XRO! Question is, does Rod Drury back the yellow metal bricks that JB and Skol keep chucking at each other? Me thinks not. I'm seeing our last run up before tapering starts (maybe to $1500???) then a long-term fall back down.

JB, the US has been raising the debt ceiling since 1788, gone through innumerable wars and tough times, seen President's come and go, seen empires rise and fall, but still it persists. It's going to keep going up and it will not kill the USA, because it is not different this time. Get used to it!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_United_States_debt-ceiling_increases

[Skol]

Hi Moosie, why will gold have a long term fall back? And all empires come to an end & if you can't see that the writing is on the wall for the US unless they make drastic change to their political system as well as their sovereign debt then you are in the dark ages my friend. The US has major structural issues they have been unwilling to face as the political cost is too much. I'm not saying its all doom & gloom for the US & they could trudge along for some time in their current state & slowly lose their sovereign credibility through a mountain of debt that just keeps ballooning. Remember how Regan busted the USSR, by out spending them until they were bankrupt. The US haven't learnt from their own lesson. And then there is Europe & Japan all major issues yet to be addressed. And who keeps buying gold Asia & the biggest fastest growing middle class in the world by a long way. I don't necessarily believe in gold but there are enough people that do & that's good enough for me. If 85Bln a month of stimulus for years & virtually zero interest rates can't spark an economy then there are some serious issues that need addressing.

You are definitely a goldbug.

[elZorro]

lol, easy there Skol

I agree, the 20th century belinged to America and this one is still up for grabs. however, I see obama slashing spending and reigning in spending to get to the root of this cause. he is goung niwhere near far enough, but you can't keep racking up debt forever. the USA does need to change, but you have no idea how immensely stubborn they can be. try living next to them for 18 years! they insist they are the centre if the universe and I think that helps to a degree (even if they are uttrly incorrect!) the economy is coming right again, it just takes time. combined with some fiscal restraint, things could change.

Moosie, Moosie, Moosie.. the economy is not really money, it's profits, and at the end of the day the profits come from input energy that cost you less than you thought it would. Whether it's human effort, or oil, gas, cheaper materials to work with. Wages in the States are dropping, that's a start. But energy costs continue to trend upwards. They cannot be a manufacturing powerhouse again until their energy costs reduce compared to other countries, and their labour costs are still too high. Do you see any of this helping employment? Lower tax income, no-one paying all the bills, sovereign and private debt, this is what's happening in general.

They're smart enough, they need to be working on renewable energy resources, we all should be, with a lot more urgency.

Meanwhile, the US$ gold price should trend upwards. Uncertainty, safe haven, lower US$ basket over time, the dow in gold, all are pointers. Along with the eventual tapering of QE3. Gold might drop at first when that happens, then watch the flood out of stocks. It'll have to go somewhere.

[JBmurc]

You are definitely a goldbug. Or more likely a pragmatist that understand's you can't fix the problems by going further into debt and looking to enter yet another WAR >>>President Obama is moving toward a military strike against Syria. Any final decisions haven't been made, but senior administration officials talk of Syria now as a place where the U.S. and its allies must exact a military price for heavy use of chemical weapons ..http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57600101/fearing-a-u.s-strike-syria-warns-of-global-chaos/

[JBmurc]

Moosie, Moosie, Moosie.. the economy is not really money, it's profits, and at the end of the day the profits come from input energy that cost you less than you thought it would. Whether it's human effort, or oil, gas, cheaper materials to work with. Wages in the States are dropping, that's a start. But energy costs continue to trend upwards. They cannot be a manufacturing powerhouse again until their energy costs reduce compared to other countries, and their labour costs are still too high. Do you see any of this helping employment? Lower tax income, no-one paying all the bills, sovereign and private debt, this is what's happening in general.

They're smart enough, they need to be working on renewable energy resources, we all should be, with a lot more urgency.

Meanwhile, the US$ gold price should trend upwards. Uncertainty, safe haven, lower US$ basket over time, the dow in gold, all are pointers. Along with the eventual tapering of QE3. Gold might drop at first when that happens, then watch the flood out of stocks. It'll have to go somewhere.


Yeah funny how wasn't that long ago the media would talk up the negative affects of higher crude oil prices now WTI $106bbl
and everything is fine ....

[Skol]

Or more likely a pragmatist that understand's you can't fix the problems by going further into debt and looking to enter yet another WAR >>>President Obama is moving toward a military strike against Syria. Any final decisions haven't been made, but senior administration officials talk of Syria now as a place where the U.S. and its allies must exact a military price for heavy use of chemical weapons ..http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57600101/fearing-a-u.s-strike-syria-warns-of-global-chaos/

All been done before lol. North Korea, Iran, Egypt, Straits of Hormuz, Iran attacks Israel, yadda,yadda, yadda.

Not forgetting the big one, Armageddon, a goldbug favourite.

[JBmurc]

All been done before lol. North Korea, Iran, Egypt, Straits of Hormuz, Iran attacks Israel, yadda,yadda, yadda.

Not forgetting the big one, Armageddon, a goldbug favourite.

Oh yes North Korea wasn't that just a great success like Vietnam ....Iraq.....Afghan Wars >>>and how have they been a good move by the USA ???

http://thegazette.com/2013/08/26/america-helped-saddam-hussein-as-he-gassed-iran-cia-files-show/
The U.S. government may be considering military action in response to chemical strikes near Damascus. But a generation ago, America’s military and intelligence communities knew about and did nothing to stop a series of nerve gas attacks far more devastating than anything Syria has seen, Foreign Policy has learned. - See more at: http://thegazette.com/2013/08/26/america-helped-saddam-hussein-as-he-gassed-iran-cia-files-show/#sthash.0O79cF1A.dpuf

[JBmurc]

And Gold/Silver just keeps on trending higher 1411oz but checkout gold AUD 1577oz not much just checkout the AUD gold charts looks as a strong long term Bull trend ....short term breakout from the 1550-1570 resistance levels


47514752


Just checkout that strong double bottom have seen a few of those in this Gold Bull market which have been followed by strong growth

[elZorro]

Another US$15 jump in the price. Gold is now at an all-time high - in Rupees.

http://zeenews.india.com/business/bullion/bullion-news/gold-price-spurts-past-rs-32-000-level-in-futures-trade_82676.html

[JBmurc]

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. government will hit the debt ceiling and be unable to borrow money to pay its bills in the middle of October unless Congress votes to increase the federal debt ceiling, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said Monday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-to-hit-debt-limit-in-mid-october-lew-says-2013-08-26

[Skol]

Goldbugs predicting the end of the financial world as we know it remind me of the Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894. The Times predicted that the streets of London and New York would be nine feet deep in the stuff within a few years. Did it happen? Of course not, but human nature's predilection for herd behaviour doesn't change as goldbuggery and the number of recent bubbles prove.

It is shiny though, I'll give you that. lol

http://30494445.nhd.weebly.com/background.html

[Daytr]

Hey Skol, is anything I said untrue? If that makes me a goldbug in your eyes then so be it. I for one hope the US do go into Syria & hopefully with the support of the UN. Nothing to do with gold, something just has to be done. The US is understandably hesitant after the protracted withdrawal from Afghanistan & Iraq. The last thing Obama wants to do is go back into a Mid/East conflict, but I don't think he can stand by & watch what is going on, so all credit to hi. In regards Syria in terms of its impact on gold, Skol is right that it will be a short term impact & that impact will wear thin like it has for other conflicts. However its not Syria that is causing the sharemarkets to stall or inhibit the housing growth in the US we have seen of late. I for one hope the US can rebound, however imo their political system which is dominated by the lobbyists cannot break the shackles, yet at least anyway.


You are definitely a goldbug.

[Daytr]

Love it Skol !


Goldbugs predicting the end of the financial world as we know it remind me of the Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894. The Times predicted that the streets of London and New York would be nine feet deep in the stuff within a few years. Did it happen? Of course not, but human nature's predilection for herd behaviour doesn't change as goldbuggery and the number of recent bubbles prove.

It is shiny though, I'll give you that. lol

http://30494445.nhd.weebly.com/background.html

[Silverlight]

GDX entry $23.55, today $28.35 +20.3% in under 4 weeks.
GDXJ entry $38.40, today $44.58 +16.0% in under 4 weeks.

Gold @ 1345 +7.6%

The gold market is like any other market, there are always opportunities to be long and short. While you guys argue the semantics on when or if the US will default, my gold trade continues to add gains.

GDX entry $23.55, today $30.42 +29.2% in under 8 weeks.
GDXJ entry $38.40, today $52.21 +36.0% in under 8 weeks.

Gold @ 1371 +9.7%

SPX @ 1633 +1.3%.

[Skol]

Here's a chart goldbugs might be interested in as opposed to the one that JB Murc posted. The peak is indexed to 100, gold didn't have a sustained rise for another 2 decades.

The chart is dated April 2013, so it fell considerably further than that shown. In fact it would have dropped to the 60 line before the current recovery, almost exactly as per the 1980 crash. Fancy that!

[JBmurc]

Whatever makes you feel better Skol personal going from the latest 6 month chart looks like a double bottom round the time you were bleating on about Gold Crash Doom DOwn to 600 ....Dow going to the moon >>>fact is like I said back then IMHO the bottom was in for the year currently we are breaking through resistance levels with next stop a attack on the 1440 resistance level I see we reached 1435 only hours ago,,,,..also on on the whole mess the US empire is ....I personal believe because of the New War the masters want to get involved with that Q.E tapering will be put to bed for awhile all those missiles & Mass attack forces aren't cheap to run someone's got to pay

Fasle flag operation ?
http://guardianlv.com/2013/08/syrian-chemical-weapons-attack-carried-out-by-rebels-says-un/

al-Qaeda Rebels ? didn't we fighting these guys in Afghan/Iraq
http://news.antiwar.com/2013/08/27/attacking-syria-us-bolsters-al-qaeda-dominated-rebels/

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4421989,00.html

All very confusing

Right now that makes sense
http://www.globalresearch.ca/hillary-clinton-we-created-al-qaeda/5337222

[elZorro]

Here's a chart goldbugs might be interested in as opposed to the one that JB Murc posted. The peak is indexed to 100, gold didn't have a sustained rise for another 2 decades.

The chart is dated April 2013, so it fell considerably further than that shown. In fact it would have dropped to the 60 line before the current recovery, almost exactly as per the 1980 crash. Fancy that!

There are many reasons why the current gold chart doesn't need to map over the 1980 peak, Skol. Gold has not risen parabolically, it's been mostly linear. It has also not fallen as far or as quickly, and instead of meteoric profits being made, this time miners were just starting to make a sensible profit. A big part of the increase in the gold price has been scarcity of the resource, and increasing exploration and extraction costs. China just had a big find of 21 tonne gold reserves, but this is under 1Moz. Waihi produced 10Moz over 150 years.

Despite all of the goldbug research, you seem to be content to look at the gold price as simply a peaky squiggle that ideally should be a slowly trending rise over decades. It's more like a fearful heatbeat, and as energy costs rise and entire countries do less well than they have in the past relative to their peers, some will seek out gold as part of their investments. Those countries who are doing better than they used to, now under globalisation (e.g. China and India) are also buying gold for a different reason: safety in numbers. There is a gold shortage (of real gold), it's not going to be fixed while the price is at $1400, as miners will stand by and wait while it's down there. I can see the price going past $1800/oz again sometime in the next year, the way it's behaving at the moment.

[Skol]

There are many reasons why the current gold chart doesn't need to map over the 1980 peak, Skol. Gold has not risen parabolically, it's been mostly linear.

Could've fooled me.

And it's a myth that there's a shortage of gold, just head off to your nearest dealer and check it out. Another goldbug conspiracy theory.

This is a parabolic chart, I think you'll agree they're similar, notice the sell signal, something JB Murc missed when silver went parabolic a couple of years ago, now he's sitting on 1500oz of corroding metal. lol

-----------------------------
The corrosion rate of silver is shown not to be humidity dependent. Hydrogen sulfide, ozone, chlorine, and hydrogen chloride concentrations substantially influence its corrosion rate.
-----------------------------

[Skol]

Of some interest, I noticed the other day that gold and silver crashed by EXACTLY the same %age after they peaked.

Uncanny isn't it?

Here's something for the goldbugs that perennially remind us all that the USA is about to fall apart and China become the dominant power. From an investment bulletin I received this morning.

"China faces the downward leg of of the economic cycle, America the upside. It is quite conceivable that America's economic growth will overtake China's within 5 years. What is of more concern than a cyclical downturn in the economy is the degree to which Chinese property prices have inflated. A sharp correction in property would leave the highly levered Chinese banks as vulnerable as Western banks were during the GFC."

A fall in the Chinese property market could trigger a massive gold sell-off.

[elZorro]

oh dear, looks like the gold investors saying COMEX was running out of gold and that deliveries were approachingvthe breaking point were very, very wrong. also criticises goldbugs for scaremongering people into investing in gold. oh deary me...

http://www.cpmgroup.com/sites/default/files/2%20-%20CPM%20Market%20Commentary,%20Much%20Ado%20About %20Nothing,%202013-08-19_0.pdf

Hardly scaremongering Moosie, one of those charts shows that indeed Comex stocks of both registered and unregistered type are dropping quickly. In any case, there is only US$11.2 Billion of gold stocks in both types at the moment. It's not a big number compared to world wealth, or to QE figures for the US alone. Germany wants 300,000oz back, how many other countries are expecting a share of what's left?

Newmont, the world's second biggest miner, reports an all -in average sustaining production cost of over $1100 per ounce, and including stockpile writedowns, over $1500 per ounce. They are about to lay off 35% of their corporate and regional workforce.

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20130725006785/en/Newmont-Announces-Quarter-2013-Results

[Skol]

Since April 1968, there have been 15 rolling three-month periods where gold in sterling has lost 24 percent or more, and after each of these three-month periods, gold prices rose again over the next three months, resulting in an average 20.7 percent increase for U.K. investors,"
-----------------------------

Gold has risen exactly 20.7% since it's recent low.
This implies that gold will now continue the downtrend.

[Skol]

Peter Schiff still banging on the last couple of days about 'gold going to the stratosphere'.lol

Does this idiot have any credibility left?

Here's a comment on Shiff from CNBC

"Ah my buddy da Petah Shift...he a good saresman..he get 8% commishunn to serr da gord....anyways, prease buy da gord and push it up to da 1500 dorrah rever...at dat point, I wirr shoht it and make da munay. Fank you."

[Skol]

Mate JB Murc and his goldbug buddys are hoping like hell that there'll be a an attack on Syria that will set off a huge war. e.g. the USA will attack Syria, Syria will gas Israel, Israel will attack Syria, and then Iran and their religious maniac Hizbollah sycophants will also attack Israel. The Israelis will then decimate Syria and Iran and anyone else who sticks their head above the parapets.

A nuclear explosion JB, how good would that be? Goldbugs love a bit of carnage, what better way to make a few bucks?

Heaven for goldbugs, a massive body count would really be a plus, gold would spike exponentially and the goldbugs would be more than satisfied, and able to say "I told you so", and blame the USA for being the 'great satan'.

What a whizzbang deal, Petah Schift would also be more than happy.

[stevo1]

Mate JB Murc and his goldbug buddys are hoping like hell that there'll be a an attack on Syria that will set off a huge war. e.g. the USA will attack Syria, Syria will gas Israel, Israel will attack Syria, and then Iran and their religious maniac Hizbollah sycophants will also attack Israel. The Israelis will then decimate Syria and Iran and anyone else who sticks their head above the parapets.

A nuclear explosion JB, how good would that be? Goldbugs love a bit of carnage, what better way to make a few bucks?

Heaven for goldbugs, a massive body count would really be a plus, gold would spike exponentially and the goldbugs would be more than satisfied, and able to say "I told you so", and blame the USA for being the 'great satan'.

What a whizzbang deal, Petah Schift would also be more than happy.
Skoly in troubled times people turn to gold I doubt that anyone would be satisfied by the cause of getting a rise in the POG if it involved the lose of human life.The good ole USA was providing chemical weapons to Sadam Hussein that he used on the Kurds when it suited the administration of the time.
Their greatest allies the Brits(Boston Tea Party anyone) have stood aside on this one.
So suddenly the French have become their greatest allies (French fries renamed to Freedom fries)when was that again? and of course a backhanded slap to the Brits?When they go ahead(USA)expect rising oil price and gold rising and if none of it had happened well oil price and gold would be where?

[Skol]

The good ole USA was providing chemical weapons to Sadam Hussein that he used on the Kurds when it suited the administration of the time.

That is a genuine load of bollocks, a conspiracy theory and a goldbug invention, bet you can't prove it, the USA destroyed their chemical weapons on Johnston Island and virtually all known chemical weapons in the USA have been disposed of.

You're obviously a goldbug, USA hater too that blames the US for all the world's problems. That's why the USA should stay out of this one, then they can't be blamed by the world's pacifists for the carnage.

Let them go to it, no one wants to help the Syrians do away with a dictator, so they'll have to suffer. Dictators don't resign, most come to a very sticky end and so will Al-Assad, it'll just take a few more hundred thousand casualties which I'm sure won't bother you one iota Stevo.

Goldbugs are salivating at the thought of a huge M.E. conflict, they can't wait, that's their reason for living, their raison d'etre. Goldbug websites light up when there's the remotest chance of a conflict, North Korea, Israel attacking Iran, Iran closing the Straits of Hormuz, they love it, and the bigger the body count the better.

Goldbugs thrive on misery and conflict, but unbeknown to them they're the ones going to be wretched because gold and silver are headed for multi-decade lows. I can't wait!

A nuclear attack! That would be the 'gold standard' for goldbugs.

[stevo1]

[QUOTE=Skol;425252]That is a genuine load of bollocks, a conspiracy theory and a goldbug invention, bet you can't prove it, the USA destroyed their chemical weapons on Johnston Island and virtually all known chemical weapons in the USA have been disposed of.


Let them go to it, no one wants to help the Syrians do away with a dictator, so they'll have to suffer. Dictators don't resign, most come to a very sticky end and so will Al-Assad, it'll just take a few more hundred thousand casualties which I'm sure won't bother you one iota Stevo.

Skoly you are getting a bit vitriolic there.your first statement indicates that you believe America's word.
There are numerous and long examples of the USA saying things that are just plain lies and being directly responsible for the deaths of LARGE numbers of people.
You are obliviously have not been paying attention during your lifetime(SIT UP STAIGHT AND PAY ATTENTION SKOLY) --- when it has suited USA's purpose they have supported Saddam Hussien,mujahideen(now called taliban),Manuel Noriaga,EtC,ETC
The USA has supported any number of dictators since WW2 and are culpable but unaccountable.
POG and POO reacts to upheaval amongst other things.
IMO there has not been a justifiable war since WW2.
I certainly DO NOT WISH TO SEE ANY PEOPLE NEEDLESSLY DIE Or BE MAIMED.
"Goldbugs thrive on misery and conflict" What absolute nonsence

[Skol]

Stevo,

I knew it, a goldbug conspiracy theory without a scrap of evidence, but that's nothing new for the goldbug conspiracy craze, the latest idiot theory being the 'false flag' bollocks. I'm not sure about the IQ of some of the goldbugs.

[stevo1]

Skol as I have stated before I am not a goldbug but do hold some as a form of insurance .Lowest entry price US$39 yes not a typo US$39 (1970) highest price entry $500. Have never sold any of it.
A goldbug is not what I am. Gold has its many spruickers and nutters .
Conversely it seems to have equally diametrically opposed nutters
You keep stating that there is not a scrap of evidence,for my previous statements.
Either you are blind or you just do not want to see the evidence is there just as there where WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION IN IRAQ .oh thats right there werent any.
Something like 350000 Iraqis killed in Iraq war
The US supplied the chemical weapons originally.
Subsequently US is left with its own causualties of the returned servicemen and the inherent physical and psychological damage.
SIT UP STRAIGHT AND CONCENTRATE SKOL its all there if you take time to get off your hobby horse and use you single eye to see.
Anyway good luck skol on your crusade against the goldbugs :0)

[Skol]

Stevo,

Goldbugs believe in conspiracy theories, like the one that the USA supplied the gas for killing the Kurds. You obviously have no evidence to support such a looney theory but that's not unusual in the narrow goldbug world, why let a good story get ruined by the facts. Actually it's hilarious, some of the theories are so nutty that some observers believe that conspiracy theorists are mentally ill.

HAARP, chemtrails, the Illuminati, the Moon landing was filmed at Area 51, the USA gassed the Syrians, 911 was perpetrated by the CIA, it all smacks of paranoia, so there may well be some evidence that conspiracy theorists are mentally ill. And goldbug websites are full of it. I can tell that many of these posters aren't intelligent people, I firmly believe many goldbugs are indeed, in need of some kind of treatment.

There is much conjecture about conspiracy theories and their propagators, but whether they are mentally ill or not, conspiracy theorists feel special, they have the inside scoop that no one else has, and if it looks as if the conspiracy theory they are pushing is in danger of being discredited, they'll just add another layer to it.

One goldbug nutter I debated with believes that condensation trails from aircraft are caused by special chemicals in Aviation fuel to brainwash us. When I suggested that the filters in the engines would block when this particular compound was added, I was told that the engines are fitted with special CIA designed filters.

And right on cue, as soon as gold took a dive below $1,400, the 'manipulation' cranks were on the keyboard.

http://recoveryfromschizophrenia.org/2013/05/conspiracy-theories-fill-a-need/

================================


Conspiracy Theorists are Just Like the Westboro Baptists

Posted by Mark on April 17, 2013

And Alex Jones and Mike Adams are their Fred Phelps. It’s a wonder that Anonymous doesn’t retaliate against these ghouls as well as against Westboro who are planning to picket the Boston Marathon funerals.

Why are the the same thing? Because they’re all ghouls, and they all use any tragic event to bolster their warped, abhorrent world view no matter what the facts are, and no matter how offensive to the victims.

Within minutes, with no one knowing any facts, Jones claims this is a false flag attack. The only appropriate response to an event like this, within the first minutes and hours, is to hope the first responders and emergency personnel can get to and rescue as many as possible. But to the ghoul, every event such as this is another chance to push their agenda of hate. For the Westboro Baptists, similarly not knowing anything, they think this is further evidence that God hates America because we tolerate homosexuality. For the conspiracy theorist, all traumatic events instantly become incorporated into their evidence that the government/FBI/CIA whatever is faking them/planning them to increase their control over us. No matter what the evidence is, or will be, it will just be further sealed into this fixed, false belief. Avicenna at FtB has a good post (warning for graphic images) of examples of how despicable this behavior can be. I think one of the most grotesque acts yet was one of the CTs asking the governor of Massachusetts if this was a false flag. How stupid and awful a person do you have to be to ask that question in the wake of such a tragedy? Here is the governor, trying to address a crisis, and some scumbag is basically asking (1) is the US government randomly murdering innocent US citizens (2) is he in on it? To the governor’s immense credit, he didn’t immediately jump into the crowd and start strangling the questioner. CTs were so awful as to accuse the victims of just being actors, of the whole thing being staged, or the whole thing actually being performed by government (read your fellow US citizens), including Mike Adams’ immediate blaming of the event on government agencies. What is their evidence? They have no evidence. They just hate without reason.

These conspiracy theorists are just another type of hatemonger. This event is just the latest proof. No matter what the reality is, what the facts are, every event just becomes further proof of their warped and hateful world view. Never mind that it casts civil servants and law enforcement as the murderers, the victims as liars, and the rest of us as fools, that’s what they believe. We shouldn’t continue to tolerate this as just fringe wackiness. This is hate mongering, and the worst kind. It’s hate mongering in the immediate aftermath of a tragedy, designed to make us hate and fear our fellow citizens, those trying to help us, and those who were hurt the most. It’s hate and divisiveness when we should be pulling together rather than apart. It’s no different from what the Westboro Baptists church does. And Alex Jones and Mike Adams are just like Fred Phelps.

=============================

Hear, hear!

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=why-people-believe-conspiracy-theoies

[elZorro]

Wikipedia has a bit of background. It seems that a lot of the precursor chemicals for the 1988 attack were sourced from parts of Europe etc, but that one critical chemical for mustard gas was sourced from the USA. And that America knew Iraq had chemical weapons.


International sources for technology and chemical precursors[edit source (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Halabja_poison_gas_attack&action=edit&section=8) | editbeta (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Halabja_poison_gas_attack&veaction=edit&section=8)]

See also: Iraqi chemical weapons program (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_chemical_weapons_program)
The know-how (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know-how) and material for developing chemical weapons were obtained by Saddam's regime from foreign sources.[24] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halabja_poison_gas_attack#cite_note-involved-24) The largest suppliers of precursors for chemical weapons production were in Singapore (4,515 tons), the Netherlands (4,261 tons), Egypt (2,400 tons), India (2,343 tons), and West Germany (1,027 tons). One Indian company, Exomet Plastics, sent 2,292 tons of precursor chemicals to Iraq. The Singapore -based firm Kim Al-Khaleej, affiliated to the United Arab Emirates, supplied more than 4,500 tons of VX, sarin, and mustard gas precursors and production equipment to Iraq.[25] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halabja_poison_gas_attack#cite_note-25) Dieter Backfisch, managing director of West German company Karl Kolb GmbH, was quoted by saying in 1989: "For people in Germany poison gas is something quite terrible, but this does not worry customers abroad."[24] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halabja_poison_gas_attack#cite_note-involved-24)
The 2002 International Crisis Group (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Crisis_Group) (ICG) no. 136 "Arming Saddam: The Yugoslav Connection" concludes it was "tacit approval" by many world governments that led to the Iraqi regime being armed with weapons of mass destruction (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weapons_of_mass_destruction), despite sanctions, because of the ongoing Iranian conflict.
On December 23, 2005, a Dutch court sentenced Frans van Anraat (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frans_van_Anraat), a businessman who bought chemicals on the world market and sold them to Saddam's regime, to 15 years in prison. The court ruled that Saddam committed genocide against the people of Halabja;[26] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halabja_poison_gas_attack#cite_note-26) this was the first time the Halabja attack was described as an act of genocide in a court ruling. In March 2008, the government of Iraq announced plans to take legal action against the suppliers of chemicals used in the poison gas attack.[27] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halabja_poison_gas_attack#cite_note-27)
Among the chemical precursors provided to Iraq from American companies such as Alcolac International and Phillips, was thiodiglycol (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thiodiglycol), a substance needed to manufacture mustard gas, according to leaked portions of Iraq's "full, final and complete" disclosure of the sources for its weapons programs. The provision of chemical precursors from United States companies to Iraq (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_support_for_Iraq_during_the_Iran%E2% 80%93Iraq_war) was enabled by a Ronald Reagan Administration (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Reagan_Administration) policy that removed Iraq from the State Department's list of State Sponsors of Terrorism (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Sponsors_of_Terrorism). Alcolac was named as a defendant in the Aziz v. Iraq case presently pending in the United States District Court (Case No. 1:09-cv-00869-MJG). (Both companies have since undergone reorganization and Phillips, once a subsidiary of Phillips Petroleum is now part of ConocoPhillips (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ConocoPhillips), an American oil and discount fossil fuel company, while Alcolac International has since dissolved and reformed as Alcolac Inc.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halabja_poison_gas_attack#cite_note-28))
Controversies[edit source (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Halabja_poison_gas_attack&action=edit&section=9) | editbeta (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Halabja_poison_gas_attack&veaction=edit&section=9)]

Allegations of Iranian involvement[edit source (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Halabja_poison_gas_attack&action=edit&section=10) | editbeta (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Halabja_poison_gas_attack&veaction=edit&section=10)]

See also: Iraq and weapons of mass destruction (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4d/Original_Bomb_Casing_Used_as_Flower_Pot_-_Halabja_Memorial_-_Halabja_-_Kurdistan_-_Iraq.jpg/170px-Original_Bomb_Casing_Used_as_Flower_Pot_-_Halabja_Memorial_-_Halabja_-_Kurdistan_-_Iraq.jpg (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Original_Bomb_Casing_Used_as_Flower_Pot_-_Halabja_Memorial_-_Halabja_-_Kurdistan_-_Iraq.jpg) http://bits.wikimedia.org/static-1.22wmf14/skins/common/images/magnify-clip.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Original_Bomb_Casing_Used_as_Flower_Pot_-_Halabja_Memorial_-_Halabja_-_Kurdistan_-_Iraq.jpg)
An original bomb casing used as flower pot at the Halabja Memorial Monument in 2011


The U.S. State Department (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Department_of_State), in the immediate aftermath of the incident, took the official position based on examination of available evidence that Iran was partly to blame.[15] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halabja_poison_gas_attack#cite_note-mind-15) A preliminary Defense Intelligence Agency (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Intelligence_Agency) (DIA) study at the time reported that it was Iran that was responsible for the attack, an assessment which was used subsequently by the Central Intelligence Agency (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Intelligence_Agency) (CIA) for much of the early 1990s. The CIA's senior political analyst for the Iran-Iraq war, Stephen C. Pelletiere, co-authored an unclassified analysis of the war[29] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halabja_poison_gas_attack#cite_note-29) which contained a brief summary of the DIA study's key points. The CIA altered its position radically in the late 1990s and cited Halabja frequently in its evidence of weapons of mass destruction before the 2003 invasion of Iraq (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq). Pelletiere claimed that a fact that has not been successfully challenged is that Iraq was not known to have possessed the cyanide (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyanide)-based blood agents determined to have been responsible for the condition of the bodies that were examined,[30] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halabja_poison_gas_attack#cite_note-30) and that blue discolorations around the mouths of the victims and in their extremities,[31] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halabja_poison_gas_attack#cite_note-31) pointed to Iranian-used gas as the culprit. Leo Casey writing in Dissent Magazine (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissent_Magazine) argued that "none of the authors of these documents [...] had any expertise in medical and forensic sciences, and their speculation doesn't stand up to minimal scrutiny."[32] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halabja_poison_gas_attack#cite_note-32)
Joost Hiltermann, who was the principal researcher for Human Rights Watch (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Rights_Watch) between 1992–1994, conducted a two-year study of the massacre, including a field investigation in northern Iraq. According to his analysis of thousands of captured Iraqi secret police documents and declassified U.S. government documents, as well as interviews with scores of Kurdish survivors, senior Iraqi defectors and retired U.S. intelligence officers, it is clear that Iraq carried out the attack on Halabja, and that the United States, fully aware of this, nevertheless accused Iran, Iraq's enemy in a fierce war, of being partly responsible for the attack.[15] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halabja_poison_gas_attack#cite_note-mind-15) This research concluded there were numerous other gas attacks, unquestionably perpetrated against the Kurds by the Iraqi armed forces. According to Hiltermann, the literature on the Iran-Iraq war reflects a number of allegations of chemical weapons use by Iran, but these are "marred by a lack of specificity as to time and place, and the failure to provide any sort of evidence." Hiltermann called these allegations "mere assertions" and added that "no persuasive evidence of the claim that Iran was the primary culprit was ever presented."[33] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halabja_poison_gas_attack#cite_note-33) An investigation conduced by Dr Jean Pascal Zanders, Project Leader of the Chemical and Biological Warfare Project at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute), into responsibility for the Halabja massacre also concluded in 2007 that Iraq was the culprit, and not Iran.[34] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halabja_poison_gas_attack#cite_note-34)
In August 2013, Foreign Policy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Policy) charged, based on recently declassified CIA documents and interviews with former intelligence officials, that the U.S. had firm evidence of Iraqi chemical attacks beginning in 1983. Saddam's military also received intelligence assistance from the CIA in 1987 prior to the Iraqis' early 1988 launch of sarin attacks to stop the potentially decisive Iranian offensive to capture the southern city of Basra (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basra), which would result in a collapse of Iraqi military and Iranian victory.[35] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halabja_poison_gas_attack#cite_note-35)



Although it would be very startling if not, it appears the moon landings really did occur.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third-party_evidence_for_Apollo_Moon_landings

[Skol]

Goldbugs should refrain from reading today's Herald and checking the latest round of house price rises in Auckland, as much as 40% in the last 2 years.

Last 2 years:

Gold -28%
Silver -45%.

Looks like the Syria premium is off, gold down $12 at the open.

Could be a bubble in AKL. I've just been approached by an agent, my neighbour has been approached by a guy flying overhead in a helicopter, his neighbour has just sold to a dude who owns 2 large NZ companies and then he wanted to buy the adjoining neighbour's place as well, but he refused to sell because he had just bought it. My neighbour on the other side bought a few months ago and didn't negotiate, just paid the asking price. It's pretty manic.
AKL needs 39,000 new houses which could have something to do with why they're sniffing around out here in the country.

Despite endless warnings from hunkered-down goldbugs of a debt-fuelled Armageddon it hasn't arrived, things are positively rosy.

[Daytr]

Skol, I think people would take you a lot more seriously if you stopped labeling anyone that doesn't agree with you a 'goldbug' or conspiracy theorist. I'm not saying goldbugs don't exist, they certainly do & I agree with Skol when it comes to some of the lunacy they espouse. However I am bullish gold due to the facts that are in front of me, such as ballooning debt in the West & Japan & the Asian appetite for gold. I don't need anything else to be bullish. Its patently obvious to me that the US, Europe & Japan are in the crapper & are trying anything & everything they can to drag themselves out whereas its the BRICs & Southeast Asia where the growth is coming from & will be for some time even though they will have their ups & downs. It is also these countries that seem to have a healthy appetite for gold ! And then there's Fort Knox... just kidding Skol, that last bit was for you haha

[Skol]

Daytr,

Well there's plenty of conspiracy theorists here and I'm not trying for a moment to deter you from trying your hand at gold, however it seems to me that useful assets that provide a return are where it's at. Gold's had its day, the Chinese are leveraged to the nth degree and if the property market falls over there, they'll be selling gold as fast as they've bought it.
Gold and silver are about the worst returns on Earth for the last 2 years, what's that mean to the trained mind?

The world is pulling out of its slump, imo gold and silver will decline for the next 20 years if history's anything to go by and btw Daytr, the gold and silver charts of the last few years have mirrored EXACTLY the charts of 1980.

The world doesn't work without debt, it can and will be managed, I've been waiting for years for the economic implosion and it hasn't happened and it's ironic and quite funny that for the last 2 years the gold doomsayers have made the worst returns, even a bank deposit's done better.

You grossly underestimate the ability of powerful countries to get themselves out of trouble, we've been promised for years that the USA was going to crash and China would be the leading world power, it's bollocks, the USA will remain the commanding world power for years to come. The USA is capable of incredible feats if necessary and has the mental acumen to remain dominant, the Asian mindset is different and China may be on the brink of a Yugoslavia-style catastrophe.

In WW2 the USA built, launched, and equipped an aircraft carrier every 2 weeks. The Mare Island Naval Shipyard in SFO built and launched a destroyer in 17 days. And that was 70 years ago.

The money is going to be made in the USA, not in asia.

[Daytr]

There's a couple of big if's there Skol. Although there are issues with the property market in China they are in almost a unique position that the government can step in if there was a collapse in property prices. Actually isn't that what the US did to bail out the banks in the US & Europe? LOL. Also in regards leverage yes I am sure there is, however when talking leverage how can you ignore the leverage in the US or Europe where debt levels are only ranking behind Japan? I agree things have improved somewhat in the US & there are signs that also Europe is improving marginally, however these are from extremely low bases & if you compare the numbers from the peak they are dire! I have a mate who has just returned from holidaying in Greece & he said that he has never seen it so bad, (he visits every year or so & is Greek) Youth unemployment in Greece has reached 68%! So things are a long way from being rosey in that part of the world. Spain isn't far behind...


Daytr,

Well there's plenty of conspiracy theorists here and I'm not trying for a moment to deter you from trying your hand at gold, however it seems to me that useful assets that provide a return are where it's at. Gold's had its day, the Chinese are leveraged to the nth degree and if the property market falls over there, they'll be selling gold as fast as they've bought it.
Gold and silver are about the worst returns on Earth for the last 2 years, what's that mean to the trained mind?

The world is pulling out of its slump, imo gold and silver will decline for the next 20 years if history's anything to go by and btw Daytr, the gold and silver charts of the last few years have mirrored EXACTLY the charts of 1980.

[Skol]

Daytr,

Yes, problems there in Europe, same as any household, you have to live within your means and they haven't, but as assets increase in price the debt burden will decrease, could take some time, but I don't see why gold will increase, the gold price also relies on sentiment, and that's on the wane.

All the gold 'experts' have been wrong, I think it's hilarious as Mike Maloney, Peter Schiff, KWN, Silverbearcafe and all the others are still banging on about how they're right.

As for China, they can't even build an aircraft carrier now, let alone 70 years ago.

There's gonna be a gold conference in New Orleans in a few weeks Daytr, you should go, it promises to be the non-event of the decade. THere'll probably be a few poverty-stricken goldbugs there wanting to know what in the hell went wrong with $15,000 gold.

Hahaha

You'll be able to listen to such eminent (but probably poor) commentators such as Ron Paul who had most of his money in gold juniors and contrarian warnings like Peter Schiff and Rick Rule ($2,500 gold by 2013), not forgetting Pamela and Mary-Ann Aden ($3,000-$5,000 gold by the end of 2012) and Ian McAvity ($2,500-$3,000 gold by the end of 2012).

BTW Daytr, twice in the 20th century the USA had more debt than it has now.

No problem.

[Daytr]

Skol, if I go to Nuorlens it won't be to listen to some gold analyst or investor. It would be to listen to some smokey tunes form some Jazz legend or party on Bourbon Street!

[Daytr]

Couldn't be more wrong Moosie, particularly on Syria. In regards Tapering I think we have already seen its equities that will be hit hardest & gold could likely benefit. It might initially selloff, however if equities get hammered then gold will do better. And that's if & when they start tapering.


well, syria is looking to be a no-go and "taper terror" might enter sooner rather than later if the FED goes for it in september. the PoG MACD is setup for a beautiful peak and huge fall again, right on queue as always. if I was in any gold investments id sell up and keep the cash (tapering won't help the market either, but it sure won't crush it if the US economy is as goid as they say!)

contrary indicator right here (Deutsche Bank is also calling for Q3 to be dominated by returns from gold. SELL!!!) http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-01/gold-bulls-increase-wagers-to-highest-since-january-commodities.html

[Daytr]

Moosie, looks like Obama has got a few key Republicans on-board & imo they will have the vote within a week.

I don't think gold will be being boosted by inflation so much, but by the poor performance of the stock markets if & when they start pulling out the stimulus. The US economy is improving slowly, but so it should with a trillion dollars a year being pumped in. It should be going flat out, but it isn't. They wont be able to taper unless there is further significant improvement in employment. The other thing that will hit international corporations is offshoring profits to avoid paying taxes. What would company profits be if they are forced to pay full company tax ? There is an international agenda from governments to clamp down on this sort of tax avoidance.

[Skol]

Daryl Guppy says if you want to know where gold's headed watch silver. Right now silver's plunging, down over 4% in the last few hours.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101003409

[Skol]

There's a reasonable chance that the Syrian tyrant will be summarily dismissed, I wouldn't mind betting there's some behind the scenes negotiations going on. The pressure will be pretty excruciating and he won't want the Mrs and the kids incinerated. He's going to be a loser whatever happens, so better to find some banana republic that will host the mass murderer.

Hard to believe that a qualified opthalmologist would indulge in such behaviour, but there's been plenty of doctors over the years that have been butchers.

The Syrian gold premium is pretty much off, there's too much talking going on and even Putin says he'll go along with it if they can prove Assad is the villain.

[peat]

4791

Article on gold with some stats regarding retail purchasing.
It would appear to have increased substantially

http://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/66205/west-sells-out-its-gold-prices-fall-while-east-buys-taking-it-buying-opportun

[Skol]

4791

Article on gold with some stats regarding retail purchasing.
It would appear to have increased substantially

http://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/66205/west-sells-out-its-gold-prices-fall-while-east-buys-taking-it-buying-opportun

Haven't you heard that the retail suckers are the last ones in?

From memory it's Daytr that positions himself for a Thurday night rally, but down $30 last night.

So far on a % basis gold has matched the 1980 crash chart exactly, except this time it's far more drawn out, in 1980 the chart was also parabolic but much steeper and the fall more rapid.

If it matches 1980, gold will now fall to about $1,000 where it will stage a brief but feeble rally.

[Valuegrowth]

Finally I think GOLD will have range bound from $1200 to $1500. There will be some support for gold due to new development. If gold break psychological barrier of $1500 it may trade in the range bound from 1400 to 1600.

The military coup in Egypt and the crisis in Syria have been stopped the collapse of the gold price.

I also think we may have biggest gain in some commodity stocks sooner than later.

In the long run both gold and oil may come down.

If Gold prices go down dramatically both India, China and countries over exposure to gold will hit hard. More consumption of gold in India will create more problems for India now. In rupee value Indian gold and silver are having good prices now. Indian gold market may have more volatility in the in the short run. Indian rupee may stabilize sooner than later.

Some gold players may profit when gold reach around $1400.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Skol]

The US Mint sold 9,000 1oz Eagles in August, the lowest since July 2007. In April they sold 187,500.

[airedale]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon1.png

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Skol http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=425540#post425540)
I don't need fertiliser, it's years since any was applied here. 285 galls, I'd love to know where that fairytale came from.



The figure of 285 US gallons came from the source which was quoted in my post.

9,000 1oz Eagles in August. I'd love to know where that fairytale came from. Please share your source,Skol.

[Skol]

Try the US Mint website, that should be accurate enough for you.

http://www.usmint.gov/about_the_mint/index.cfm?action=PreciousMetals&type=bullion

http://www.mining.com/7-reasons-the-gold-price-may-not-see-1400-again-29308/

As for 285 gallons of oil to raise one head of beef, that's so absurd even a primary school kid could work out that there would be no beef in the world because it would be completely uneconomical. Are you sure it wasn't .285 gallons? lol

Back to school for you airedale, I ship my weaners in at about $400 and sell them a year later for about $1,000. I don't fertilise, and feed them the smallest amount of hay or silage, it's nonsense. If it cost me anywhere near that amount I wouldn't even bother.

[skid]

whether you believe gold will rise or fall,with gold sitting at 1390,to say it will never hit 1400 is a bit of a ridiculous article--there are alot of things that can still tank out there ,including the American economy--For the most part Gold is just a barometer of those things.
He may be right but I wouldnt bet the farm on it.

[Silverlight]

If it matches 1980, gold will now fall to about $1,000 where it will stage a brief but feeble rally.

Skol, do you think history is a good guide for this current situation, and if yes do you think it will repeat itself?

[JBmurc]

Brace yourself. House Speaker John Boehner is gearing up for a political battle over raising the nation's $16.7 trillion debt ceiling limit this fall. Meanwhile, President Obama has repeatedly been quoted as saying he will not negotiate on the debt ceiling.

The current "continuing resolution" which is basically a band-aid patched over a budget hole will expire on Sept. 30. Through some extraordinary juggling, however, experts see the U.S. government being able to operate into early November before a crisis will actually hit. Leadership in both political parties both know the costs of actual government default are too high to truly bear, but that won't stop them from pushing the U.S. to the brink amid showmanship and the inability to compromise.

Gold traders will remember that the last major political skirmish over the U.S. debt ceiling in the summer of 2011 was one of the factors propelling the yellow metal to its all-time highs at over $1,900 per ounce.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Brecht/2013-09-06-Gold-Bulls-Keep-Their-Eye-On-The-Prize-1-500-Per-Ounce.html

[Silverlight]

Skol, do you think history is a good guide for this current situation, and if yes do you think it will repeat itself?

This is my view, as I don't wish my question to come across as a trap, if I use history as a rough guide, I would say we are only in the first down cycle. I neither subscribe to this view or believe gold will reach these forecast prices, just taking an unemotional view of history in comparison to todays movements.




Date
Price
Return
Years


Jun 1968
$41.1




Nov 1974
$181.6
342%
6.4


August 1976
$104.00
-43%
1.8


September 1980
$666.75
541%
4.1


February 1985
$287.75
-57%
4.4





Date
Price
Return
Years


June 2005
$435.50




August 2011
$1,825.72
319%
6.2


June 2013
$1,234.57
-32%
1.8


September 2017
$7,854.00
536%
4.3


February 2022
$3,415.00
-57%
4.4

[elZorro]

It's still an interesting view, Silverlight. If only one of us had a time machine, and we could check it out. Based on the chart, I should be retiring in Sept 2017.:) It makes more sense than saying gold is going to plumb around $1,000 again. If it does, then energy costs will also have to fall a long way.

[JBmurc]

It's still an interesting view, Silverlight. If only one of us had a time machine, and we could check it out. Based on the chart, I should be retiring in Sept 2017.:) It makes more sense than saying gold is going to plumb around $1,000 again. If it does, then energy costs will also have to fall a long way.

Yes that's what pragmatic investors understand but we know many others live in the past and don't understand Currency devaluation thats being going on for the last Century

[elZorro]

Yes that's what pragmatic investors understand but we know many others live in the past and don't understand Currency devaluation thats being going on for the last Century

Here's a big Equedia missive about Syria, gold and energy wars. Makes some sense, good background.

http://www.equedia.com/the-real-reason-for-war-in-syria-pipeline-control/?utm_source=September%208%2C%202013&utm_campaign=September%208%2C%202013&utm_medium=email

[JBmurc]

that article was reeeeeaaaaally boring and way too long. verbal diarrhea and banging your own gong at its best. if this guy thinks WW3 is going to happen because of iran he is sadly mistaken. MADD still exists between the nuclear nations. I also recommend reading "War Made New" by Max Boot to see why the US and Israel would absolutely mop the floor with Iran and why no one would intervene on their behalf. the status quo will remain.

as you were.

Like they did with the Northern Vietnamese moose ??

[elZorro]

that article was reeeeeaaaaally boring and way too long. verbal diarrhea and banging your own gong at its best. if this guy thinks WW3 is going to happen because of iran he is sadly mistaken. MADD still exists between the nuclear nations. I also recommend reading "War Made New" by Max Boot to see why the US and Israel would absolutely mop the floor with Iran and why no one would intervene on their behalf. the status quo will remain.

as you were.

That book you recommend is 500 pages long. Maybe the pictures helped?

[JBmurc]

its a great analysis of the technology of war. it tells you why states like Iran will never be able to face the United States on a modern battlefield. the only real way to defeat them is through guerilla warfare, but the US, I THINK, has learnt from Iraq and afghanistan to let the locals do the fighting with them providing massive airpower and leadership from special forces. any invasion of Iran would involve a massive troop buildup as large as First Gulf War which would not be tolerated.

and so it will go exactly like Libya; punishing airstrikes, logistical help from elite units and supplies, a no fly zone and a slow grinding until Assad flees or dies. The US knows it can win without putting (many) boots on the ground and will do so. if Iran intervenes their forces will be severly decimated by the ever effective Israeli airforce and their troops inside syria will suddenly find themselves without supplies as their corridors are cut. Russia will not intervene when the UN report comes out (they have already shown signs of backing down politically). China wouldn't dream of intervening.

Game, set, match.

T.V and hollywood has a lot to blame for masses view that some how the US can just beat anyone at any time >>>>History has shown a much different story and the future will do as well......

I don't usually like FOX news but this clip is so True
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlX_yQ-WGfg

China & Russia advances air power
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNRMO70Hw0s

9 out of 10 Americans are anti Syrian attack>>>what do you think's going happen in a country thats sick and tired of spending Tax payers funds on Wars and the hundreds of military bases & Prisons worldwide
I'll give you a clue "Vietnam"

Armed Services Committee Sen. Jim Inhofe says the U.S. military cannot afford to intervene
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfFBm-9rWOc


I have started a thread on the off market Discussion forum thread>>>On Syrian war

[Daytr]

I'm surprised gold hasn't come off more considering the pullback on what I thought was an imminent strike on Iraq. Seems Moosie you got that one right on the button. I wouldn't be surprised to see gold still pull back & break $1380. Think it would be a buy or shares at least when gold is back around $1350.

[Skol]

9 out of 10 Americans are anti Syrian attack>>>what do you think's going happen in a country thats sick and tired of spending Tax payers funds on Wars and the hundreds of military bases & Prisons worldwide
I'll give you a clue "Vietnam"

If you check your schoolboy Atlas you'll see there are no jungles in Syria. Tyrants like the Syrian and Iranian regime never survive because of their oppressive nature and treating women like slaves.

It's just about time for my update on the annual, gold & silver vs other investments post, think I'll make it 2 years this time, which will make the bullion hoarders eyes water.

[Skol]

Last 2 years:

DOW + 37%
N225 +63%
HSI +15%
AORD +21%
NZX50 +39%
CAC40 +31%
---------------------

Gold -26%
Silver -45%
SIL -47%
XGD -63%

[Daytr]

Nice selection of data Skol. Perhaps you could tell us what the performance for these have been for the last 10 years, or last 3 months? See we can all be selective!

[JBmurc]

If you check your schoolboy Atlas you'll see there are no jungles in Syria. Tyrants like the Syrian and Iranian regime never survive because of their oppressive nature and treating women like slaves.

It's just about time for my update on the annual, gold & silver vs other investments post, think I'll make it 2 years this time, which will make the bullion hoarders eyes water.

Well as usual you make about as much sense as waterproof towel >>>>how about instead of bleating on about 2yr movements of investments in USD every couple days(esp as this is the ASX thread AUD ??) how about ' Going an doing some study on "Sharia Islamic law" that the rebels believe in ....Also a women would have far more rights in the likes of Iran than the Saudi's give their women >>>As of 2006 Iranian women account for well over half of the university students in Iran and 70% of Iran's science and engineering students...The Persian culture is not like the Arabs who have no culture. Iran is a modern advanced nation in science and technology. An Iranian woman won the Nobel Prize for peace in 2003. S.A. has oil and nothing else. Women have no rights in S.A. Iran is a theocracy but it has educated women and many religious including Christians and Jews. You should learn the difference between Persians and Arabs.

[Skol]

Nice selection of data Skol. Perhaps you could tell us what the performance for these have been for the last 10 years, or last 3 months? See we can all be selective!

Sometimes I make it a year, sometimes 2 years but you quite obviously don't know that gold is one of the very worst investments on Earth. Lets check out gold for a very long time, since 1801.

"To take an extreme example [of price volatility], while a dollar invested in bonds in 1801 would be worth nearly a thousand dollars by 1998, a dollar invested in stocks that same year would be worth more than half a million dollars. All this is in real terms, taking inflation into account. Meanwhile, a dollar invested in gold in 1801 would by 1998 be worth just 78 cents."

Gold has its moments, but overall it's a punt that takes suckers imaginations for a few years until the feeling goes away when they lose shtloads of money.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment

[Daytr]

Well this sucker has liquidated 75% of his gold stock portfolio yesterday & today. Gold looks soft so wouldn't be surprised to see it nudging $1350 this time tomorrow. Don't think it will go much lower than that, but think the stringing out of Syrian action hasn't had its full effect on gold yet & with Obama losing support for his war platform think gold's in for a drop.

[Skol]

Well as usual you make about as much sense as waterproof towel >>>>how about instead of bleating on about 2yr movements of investments in USD every couple days(esp as this is the ASX thread AUD ??) how about ' Going an doing some study on "Sharia Islamic law" that the rebels believe in ....Also a women would have far more rights in the likes of Iran than the Saudi's give their women >>>As of 2006 Iranian women account for well over half of the university students in Iran and 70% of Iran's science and engineering students...The Persian culture is not like the Arabs who have no culture. Iran is a modern advanced nation in science and technology. An Iranian woman won the Nobel Prize for peace in 2003. S.A. has oil and nothing else. Women have no rights in S.A. Iran is a theocracy but it has educated women and many religious including Christians and Jews. You should learn the difference between Persians and Arabs.

I don't care for any of them, my grandfather was in a debacle called the 'Dunsterville Force', in WW1 in what is now Iran and Azerbaijan. The locals were supplied by the British with guns and ammo to assist in a showdown with the Turks and defend their homeland. They ran off, showed off their machine guns to their girlfriends and left the British high and dry, having to retreat down the Caspian Sea in a requisitioned ship. General Sir Lionel Dunsterville described the locals as "undisciplined, lazy, uncooperative and unreliable in battle who abandoned their positions as soon as they came under enemy fire. In short, they were cowards who expected the British to do all the fighting". That about describes the whole M.E., and an example was when the coalition invaded Iraq, Saddam's ''Mother of all battles" turned into a 90 hour rout.

You hear about the new Iranian tank, it's got one forward gear and 6 reverse.

That the Iranians destroyed the US Embassy and took hostages indicate that they're a bunch of uncivilised savages, and one of the morons who did it now runs the place, lying about the nuclear bomb they're building, however, I expect the Israelis will eventually take care of that little problem. The Basij, something akin to the SD in Nazi Germany.

http://wiki.islamiccounterterrorism.org/article/Basij

It's a theocracy, run by religious maniacs which will eventually self-destruct, so if I lived in Iran, I'd certainly be hoarding a bit of gold.

[slimwin]

Sorry,why would the locals fight and die for the force that invaded them? Especially when they had a religion,albiet different sect, in common with who they ere meant to be fighting.
It's like calling the Italians useless soldiers when they were considered the best from Roman times till Napoleonic times. And I bet they had the best uniforms!
A conscripted man is never going to be your best soldier.

[Skol]

Well it depends who's going to be your best enemy, the Turks normally loot and plunder like Cyprus in 1974. Having lived in a British colony I'm amazed the locals didn't invite the British back after independence because it's now a failed state.

Ex-colonies that are now failed states, there's plenty of them, now that's where gold can really come in handy.

[slimwin]

But if the invaders had never turned up and taught them the violence and supression that would'nt be the case. Certainly the common denominator is if they had been colonized.
And religious minorities under Ottoman islam were afforded a much longer period of peaceful existance than any minority under christianity...until the minorities rose up and tried to be dominant. And when the silk route became irrelevant starving the empire of capital of course.

[stevo1]

Well it depends who's going to be your best enemy, the Turks normally loot and plunder like Cyprus in 1974. Having lived in a British colony I'm amazed the locals didn't invite the British back after independence because it's now a failed state.

Ex-colonies that are now failed states, there's plenty of them, now that's where gold can really come in handy.
Crickey Skoly i am starting to wonder you are a mentally ill closet goldbug with underlying conspirators theories.

[Daytr]

Yep agree & glad I liquidated 75% of my portfolio selling into strength. Think $1350 will be tested & possibly broken, looking for real support to kick in around $1320ish


PoG starting to look shaky as Syria is off, bond rates rise, inflation is nowhere near where gokdbugs want it to be and physical buying is solidly down. combined with tapering coming up very soon, its time to take profits (or losses!) off the table until the next downleg is over!

[Skol]

Stockmarkets worldwide are on a tear, the ASX at a 5 year high, meanwhile the bullion bunnies whine about manipulation, bond prices, the coming great implosion and hyperinflation while everyone else makes a killing.

A complete collapse in demand for 1oz gold eagles at the US Mint, 187,500 in April, 9,000 in August and nearly half way through Sept. and only 2,500 sold.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/20/us-coin-sales-idUSBRE97J01A20130820

So much for the worn-out goldbug phrase "physical gold is in short supply". lol

[Skol]

Gold now $90 below its recent high and falling rapidly..

Goldbugs love charts, but there's been a dearth of them on goldbug websites over the last few months probably because there's no end in sight to the decline that started 2 years ago.

Silver getting a real thrashing.

[stevo1]

only site to visit for charts is Kitco (although they do get rid of them over 2-3 days during major falls!)

and ouch, yes they are getting hammered, those stops are falling hard and fast! $1350 absolutely sliced through, and the NY Comex hasn't even opened yet. hope everyone listened to the writing on the wall and got out!!!
Listening to the writing on the wall is not easy moosie

[elZorro]

Or gold could be finding the bottom of its trading channel?

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2013-09-12-gold-forex.php

[stevo1]

tis very easy, just need to take the emotion out of decisions. money is a cruel mistress and cares not one iota about your feelings ;)

Thing is moosie a blind man can not see what he can hear glasshopper.

[peat]

Silver getting a real thrashing.

Haha so dramatic.
4822

[Skol]

Haha so dramatic.

Silver getting a pasting, gold probably on its way to $1,000. Gold forums doing their usual whining about 'manipulation' and 'intervention'. Many goldbugs have thrown in the towel but there's still lots out there determined to ride it all the way down. No huge body count in Syria, must be disappointing for the goldbug community, it was a standout opportunity for what's been a lacklustre 2 years.

[Bobcat.]

Don't be surprised if over this weekend there is a reversal, supported by comments made at next week's FOMC meeting. Support at 1320/1325 if it holds today will be my trigger to buy into some oversold local gold stocks (e.g. ASX.KCN and possibly OGC).

BC

[JBmurc]

Don't be surprised if over this weekend there is a reversal, supported by comments made at next week's FOMC meeting. Support at 1320/1325 if it holds today will be my trigger to buy into some oversold local gold stocks (e.g. ASX.KCN and possibly OGC).

BC

Yes FOMC will they taper or not >>>glad to have some cash in the call account should well be some mindless selling next few days
will 1320 hold ? we will see

[Daytr]

Gold as expected made the big drop, glad I'm on the sidelines. My view is we could well see lower but I don't see gold being smashed ;like last time. The market was very long then & it isn't now, also think the Chinese will buy if we start seeing gold around $1250-1280ish & India may yet surprise. Looks to me to be a typical sell the rumour buy the fact on QE tapering, but obviously the proof will be in the puddin !

[Bobcat.]

Support is holding well at 1320/25:

see http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

KCN has NTA of $3.11 (sp = $1.69), FML an NTA of 5c/share against a sp of 1.5c, and GRY an NTA of 52c against a sp of 16.5 - all appealing this morning. GRY is slightly down, FML is holding and KCN's RSI and Scholastic screamed at me to buy, which I have done. Premature? I don't think so, but of course the market is well capable of making a liar of me. My KCN purchase this morning may be a quick profit via a Monday sell.

[Daytr]

Yeah Bobcat I am tempted as goldies aren't coming off as much as I would have expected, but think I'll hold fire at this point. Friday is always interesting as traders usually want to close positions for the weekend, so really depends on the positioning of the market. I don't think anyone will be sticking their neck out today.

[Daytr]

[QUOTE=Bobcat.;427404]Support is holding well at 1320/25:


Sorry & by the way Asian market doesn't open for another hour so wouldn't read too much into what gold is doing right now. Asia may come in as a buyer, but I think the tone will be set by Europe & US markets

[Bobcat.]

Moosie,

I agree that there is negative sentiment amongst many analysts, but not all of them (and besides, you make money swimming upstream, past the injured fish floating downstream).

Have a look at the 50 day moving average and support level here:

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-09-12/template_jimw.htm

[Skol]

September is traditionally the best month for gold but so far down 5.7%, on average gold is up 2.5% in Sept.

October is the worst month for gold, on average down .24%.

We've passed the months when gold generally does well, from 2001 to 2009 gold averaged about a 20% late summer rally, but this year's rally is nearly back to where it started.

[Bobcat.]

What charts are you looking at Skol?

Examining the past 5 years:

2009 July-Dec rally of $300
2010 July-Dec again a $300 increase
2011 July-Sept rally of $400 then dropping off in Sept (like now?) to rally again $200 through to Nov
2012 July-Oct rally of $250 through October before dropping off
2013 Late June rally to end of August with a current correction (about to be reversed?).


http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

[Skol]

I bought a book called 'Gold Bubble' a couple of years ago that picked the top, and says the bottom will be $600.

The chart shows that from 2001 to 2009 gold staged a late summer rally averaging 20%, gold stocks averaged about 10%

The book also says:
"Moreover, based on its long-term average, gold is way beyond fair value. Instead of $1,900 an ounce, reasonable gold prices should be closer to $500 to $700 an ounce. Supported by Fibonacci time relationships and seasonality patterns, the likelihood that a peak in gold has already formed or rapidly approaching is almost certain."

Bang on.

[Daytr]

Well whoever wrote it Skol is wrong. The value of gold is what someone is willing to pay for it & at the moment that's $1326 & at all time highs in ruppee!

[Skol]

Well whoever wrote it Skol is wrong. The value of gold is what someone is willing to pay for it & at the moment that's $1326 & at all time highs in ruppee!

The reason gold is so high is very simple - herd behaviour. Sheeple.

That gold is at an all time high in rupees, Albanian Leks or anything else is neither here nor there.

[Daytr]

Skol, I really wonder at times if you have any idea. :confused:

[Skol]

Skol, I really wonder at times if you have any idea. :confused:

So far on a % basis this mania has exactly matched the 1980 gold mania, and I mean EXACTLY.

If it continues, gold will stage a few brief but feeble rallies down to $1,000 where it will meander for a while then descend to $600.

I debated the peak oilers, told them oil would collapse which it did, and sold silver at US$50, in fact I got more than US$50 for one chunk of silver because it had the serial #888, Asians loved it. lol

But #888 wasn't very lucky because just after I sold it silver crashed.

If history's any guide, the next rally in precious metals is probably 20 years away, but don't let me discourage you Daytr, I'm always trying to predict the future, quite often I'm right.

[Daytr]

You keep trading on history Skol, I trade what's in front of me. LOL Have a good weekend mate.

[Skol]

Here it comes......

--------------------
Gold is poised to extend declines as the U.S. Federal Reserve withdraws stimulus and economic data improve, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which says that there’s a risk that bullion may drop below $1,000 an ounce. Futures retreated in New York.

--------------------

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-13/goldman-sees-risk-of-gold-below-1-000-as-u-s-economy-gains-1-.html?cmpid=

[Skol]

Daytr,

Hope you have a good weekend too.
Here's a chart to ponder. What does this mean to the trained mind?

[Skol]

JB,

How come you're selling those valuable 'goldies'?

The price of gold is going to go up..............................isn't it?

[JBmurc]

JB,

How come you're selling those valuable 'goldies'?

The price of gold is going to go up..............................isn't it?

Yes sold my RMS position decided to take the 10% loss and move the funds to cash see how this week plays out am buying more PGI (mostly Buying back the ones that I sold a few for a profit) ....I do this as I'm a ShareTrader ...I see gold closed the week 1328oz US - 1436oz AUD>>>>hardly end of the world for gold producers >>

[Valuegrowth]

Next couple of months is very crucial for gold market. We will see next trend in gold market in 2014.

When we pick stocks, currencies or commodities we should apply margin of Safety now. This is the time to go behind undervalued markets, sectors, stocks, commodities and currencies.

If we believe in stronger economic growth, then it is time to increase our exposure to the good commodity stocks. People will eat in good time and bad times even during war or other crises. They need essential things in their life. They will never stop eating, drinking and using some daily things such as some technology, medicine and some commodities.

Value orientated contrarian investors may identify cheap valuations in commodity stocks combined with extreme negative sentiment and improving fundamentals in all types of markets globally now.

The trend has shifted in stock, commodity and currency market. Therefore new sectors, out of favour sectors, commodities, currencies and stocks including emerging stocks, currencies and commodities will lead markets in the coming years. Emerging markets will readjust again.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Skol]

The USA and Russia have agreed on a plan to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons which they said they didn't have. That should send gold a few dollars lower tomorrow.

[Valuegrowth]

Marketwinner, you have posted this in another thread and seem to speak in a very vague way. want to give us a lowdown on a commodity you think is going to go bananas? I know for example that uranium is going up because of restrictions from a key african nation, so supply has been strangled. BPL would therefore be a good play once mining commences.

World uranium demand is forecast to increase over the next decade, according to the World Nuclear Association. In the short run there will be volatility or prices may come down. There are some developments in Japan on nuclear reactors.

I think Germany's coalition government announced a reversal of policy that will see all the country's nuclear power plants phased out by 2022.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security,commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Skol]

1 oz Gold Eagle Sales this year:

January 124,500
February 68,000
March 54,000
April 187,500 (chinese 'aunties' thought this was the bottom)
May 61,500
June 49,000
July 43,000
August 9,000
Half way through September 3,500

[JBmurc]

A few Charts round AUD gold & ASX gold shares index ...what we see many Gold shares had a good run up in 2011 when AUD gold traded 1300-1400oz then look at were the sector has gone at present yet AUD gold prices trade even higher 1400-1500oz+ yet Gold producers trade at a fraction they did in 2011 crazy times ...the market has very little faith the ASX gold sector can survive IMHO



http://www.goldoz.com.au/83.0.html

[JBmurc]

There is a lot of fear in the gold community right now, and those all-in prices for mining gold do not inspire confidence if they are going as low as Goldman (ball)Sachs says. If it plummets below $1000 and stays there then there will be plenty of closures, closed companies and buyouts. Only the strongest will survive in that environment. I do agree there is a disconnect and that it appears priced in, but I think those indexes can go much lower yet, and that is where the buying for the long-term will pay off handsomely.

Treat it as the 2009 falls in commodity stocks; did RIO deserve to be <$30 a share? Nope, and plenty of money was made there! Just have to be patient and wait for the (real) bottom to form...

Yeah real wait and see for many investor's ....Only PM producers I feel confident holding longer term would have to have lower cost structures in place and hedging to cover any short term spikes lower in PM prices >>>>PGI fits that bill currently and EVN sounds pretty solid us well ...but many will fail esp in higher cost countries like Aus ....will the new Aus Government do a Obama on the resource sector ? tax breaks etc

[Daytr]

Last week I said gold was a typical sell the rumour buy the fact in regards tapering, well one of the facts is out & that is that Summers wont be the next Fed chair & its likely to be Yellen. I will be watching gold closely tonight as if Yellen is the choice then the view of the market on tapering may shift. I for one wish they would just abandon QE all together, however that's not going to happen. Think gold may have a crack back at $1350 tonight.

[Daytr]

Yep looks like typical head & shoulders formation Skol. Now it looks like gold is going to grow an arm & a leg! LOL


Daytr,

Hope you have a good weekend too.
Here's a chart to ponder. What does this mean to the trained mind?

[Daytr]

Some of you may have seen this, but for those who haven't its a long read but I found it very interesting.
With what's going on with Syria & all the talk of tapering it's sometimes good to get a refresher on the state of play in some of the world's largest economies. Its not a pretty picture.

http://blog.heartland.org/2013/09/economies-national-debts-and-gold/

[Skol]

Daytr,

As you know I work in the airline industry. I keep hearing that the world's in a bad way, I'm always reading articles like that, but air fares are discretionary spending mostly. Airbus and Boeing have orders for 9,000+ jets, yep, 9,000.

Aircraft are full, for most airlines these are halcyon days, property is booming, foreign labour is being imported to Christchurch to rebuild the city, for some reason I'm unable to fathom, given NZ's unemployment rate.

All looks pretty good to me, gold might be OK if you live in India and the rupee's crashing, but otherwise it all looks downhill. Property, shares, they're both outperforming precious metals by a wide margin and provide an income. If interest rates increase which is on the cards, that could be the death knell for gold.

Looks like gold is about to go sub-$1,300.

And it just has, here comes $1,000.

[Daytr]

Yep gold is certainly looking slippery this morning, glad I have got some powder dry. Property might be booming in Auckland & picking up in the States, however in the States for instance its still a long way from the 2008 highs. It will be interesting in an hour if Asia comes in & buys gold but suspect they may be patient. Tonight we get the Fed out of the way so will have a clearer picture this time tomorrow. As you know Skol, most airline orders are not firm. In fact a lot of orders get cancelled. In saying that I don't know if 9k is a big number comparatively or not. It certainly sounds big. I wonder what percentage of those orders are for Asian airlines?

[Daytr]

And now gold is back above $1300, so now its going to $1600. Which is about as laughable as your $1000! Have you given up on $500 as your target Skol?

[Daytr]

Yep they do, so your are right its something to be very aware of. I still wouldn't be surprised to see gold bounce back after the Fed meeting. Anyway I only have 1/3rd of funds invested, the rest sitting waiting in cash, so am comfortable either way. But its not a time to be making big bets that's for sure.


down $15 as I type now. gold coming in for a re-test of $1271 soon enough, most likely tonight on the NY Comex. Goldman Sachs target of $1050, watch out, the market listens to them!

[Bobcat.]

TRY, PRU, TGZ, AQG and GRY are lowest cost gold producers (see the S&P Capital 10 Jan 2013 report (included in GRY's investor presentation on p10). These stocks are holding sp better than others, and are safer buys than SBM, NCM, etc.

My TRY have bounced back up from 145 to hover around 150 for two days now. PRU put out an encouraging announcement this morning which because of the bear-driven market today has so far been ignored. Could be worth a punt at 55c.

BC

[Skol]

And now gold is back above $1300, so now its going to $1600. Which is about as laughable as your $1000! Have you given up on $500 as your target Skol?

Nope, not at all, but I did say $600 or thereabouts, give it time.

[Daytr]

If I was a goldbug Skol, I might say its heading to $666! haha. Maybe $1666, I know which one is closer anyway. Well pretty much sidelines for me until the picture gets a little clearer. Cheers matey.


Nope, not at all, but I did say $600 or thereabouts, give it time.

[Daytr]

Last week I said this would be a classic sell the rumour & buy the fact & that gold would have a crack at $1350. I must admit I expected this to happen a day or two leading into the decision rather than when the actual decision was out. Taking out $1350 is important & it needs to hold so its good that gold has pushed on again, now through $1360.

I almost questioned my conviction yesterday & I sold out 2/3rds of my position when gold broke $1300 yesterday morning, however I bought back a 3rd on the close as wanted to stick to my guns & still thought I was on the right track & that the market was short & would need to cover. So I wasn't 100% convinced, but being 2/3rds invested reflects my confidence level in what my view was.

A couple of observations on the Fed decision:

* Was it just me or did Bernanke lack confidence, conviction in what he was saying?
* Stock markets rally strongly even though the FED is saying the recovery isn't nearly as strong as the market was suggesting. Clear evidence that its QE that is creating a bubble in the stock market.
* QE tapering, may not start for 12 months or more. Personally I think this may change & the realization that QE is a complete waste of time & risky & will be curtailed for very different reasons. Stock market watch out!

Good day ahead my friends!

[JBmurc]

Last week I said this would be a classic sell the rumour & buy the fact & that gold would have a crack at $1350. I must admit I expected this to happen a day or two leading into the decision rather than when the actual decision was out. Taking out $1350 is important & it needs to hold so its good that gold has pushed on again, now through $1360.

I almost questioned my conviction yesterday & I sold out 2/3rds of my position when gold broke $1300 yesterday morning, however I bought back a 3rd on the close as wanted to stick to my guns & still thought I was on the right track & that the market was short & would need to cover. So I wasn't 100% convinced, but being 2/3rds invested reflects my confidence level in what my view was.

A couple of observations on the Fed decision:

* Was it just me or did Bernanke lack confidence, conviction in what he was saying?
* Stock markets rally strongly even though the FED is saying the recovery isn't nearly as strong as the market was suggesting. Clear evidence that its QE that is creating a bubble in the stock market.
* QE tapering, may not start for 12 months or more. Personally I think this may change & the realization that QE is a complete waste of time & risky & will be curtailed for very different reasons. Stock market watch out!

Good day ahead my friends!





The so called TAPER what a load of bollocks ...in 12 months we will here the same lies ..All the media doom and gloom on Gold/Silver US economy going strong >>>>Absolute BS .....they need 1 trillion every year just to keep afloat >>>>debt ceiling
Recently there was a massive 2,000 contract short of GOLD from 1350 was dropped during 3am US time helped set of a mountain of stop-losses >>>to see us round recent lows ....well hope they haven't covered yet and will lose million on the contract

[JBmurc]

wow, what a rally indeed. time to buy some gold producers today!

you and the rest of the market ..will likely be paying 10%+ more than yesterday

[peat]

4841




I think its time to bring out Liberace again. Gold is so easy to play

I never could see that H+Sh Datyr and Skol mentioned. Only a reverse one if anything

[JBmurc]

worth waiting for certainty though over holding a big loss. think I might hold back on OGC as the price is getting ahead of itself compared to past PoG prices. TRY looking tasty though :)

Yeah all depends on Gold price movement could well continue it's move north now the market understand the FED won't be tapering anytime soon ...wish I held onto my RMS shares now would be back to even rather than taking the 10% loss ....have gained back 4-5% through buying PGI @ 8c.......I agree TRY looks good buying smart mgmt ....

[Daytr]

Gold should extend from here imo as $1350 was a big number on the way down & the same should be said on the way back up.
If $1350 holds for 24 hours then we should gain confidence that this is a momentum shifter. Next resistance for mine is $1400-1420 area which is reasonably large, a break of that then $1480 then all the way up to $1600.

[JBmurc]

Crazy fact Since Germany asked for their Gold back the "Comex Deliverable inventories" have fallen 78% to date

[elZorro]

So the gold price is saying -- the USA doesn't have any answers yet. Ditto the rest of the world. I haven't dropped the faith much, I think there is a longer term trend under the gold price.

The USD basket not doing so good at the moment, it's down to about 80c on the chart, near the point it was at when gold was at US$1700 or so, early this year.

Here's another chart which implies that the gold price is so strongly correlated with the growth of US Treasuries that it's fairly certain which way gold is going next. http://www.macrotrends.net/1448/fed-balance-sheet-vs-gold-price

[Skol]

The Chinese govt. doesn't share the same view as the goldbugs, they're pouring money into US Treasuries. Chinese bond purchases in the USA in July were the most on a monthly basis since 1977.

All is well, shares, property, airlines, couldn't be better for me, one of the best investment periods of my life, meanwhile goldbugs still hoping that gold will go up, unfortunately hope isn't a viable investment strategy.

Despite the predictions for years by the goldbugs of imminent financial catastrophe, it's not happening.

And it won't either. lol

But goldbugs wouldn't be goldbugs unless they were whining about something.

Many cities in the USA are booming, and an article in the WSJ reports that for every innovation job created 5 other service jobs are created. An example is SFO where house prices have exceed their previous highs and hi-tech companies are having to jack up the salaries to keep their staff. I went for a beer there the other night and asked the barmaid a question. She told me "I don't know, I've only been here 15 minutes".

[JBmurc]

The Chinese govt. doesn't share the same view as the goldbugs, they're pouring money into US Treasuries. Chinese bond purchases in the USA in July were the most on a monthly basis since 1977.

All is well, shares, property, airlines, couldn't be better for me, one of the best investment periods of my life, meanwhile goldbugs still hoping that gold will go up, unfortunately hope isn't a viable investment strategy.

Despite the predictions for years by the goldbugs of imminent financial catastrophe, it's not happening.

And it won't either. lol

But goldbugs wouldn't be goldbugs unless they were whining about something.

Many cities in the USA are booming, and an article in the WSJ reports that for every innovation job created 5 other service jobs are created. An example is SFO where house prices have exceed their previous highs and hi-tech companies are having to jack up the salaries to keep their staff. I went for a beer there the other night and asked the barmaid a question. She told me "I don't know, I've only been here 15 minutes".


This come from the King of Whining on Gold Demise >>LOL

[Skol]

This come from the King of Whining on Gold Demise >>LOL

Aren't the chinese supposed to be hoarding thousands of tons of gold? At least that's what the goldbugs reckon.

If they were, why are they buying more US bonds than they have for 36 years?

[Daytr]

I just posted this on the Aussie Blog, so thought I may as well paste it here. Morning Skol! Ever thought the Barmaid might have replaced someone who couldn't afford to live on the wage they were earning? No they rely on tips in the good ol US of A!

This is what I know (IMO)that is the here & now & why I think gold is going to have a very good end to 2013 & its just started.

* The FED, tapering is off the table (imo) until at least 2014 & maybe well beyond. It will be interesting once the new Fed Chair steps in.
* The debt ceiling, is looming once again & will keep doing so. They will get through it after much posturing & playing hard ball on Obamacare etc. However it certainly is a positive for gold.
* The Syrian conflict isn't going away either & looks like the international (US) agenda will heat up again next week.
* Despite the Indian government trying to clamp down on gold imports, we are about to enter some of the biggest festive seasons & of course its Christmas where jewelry demand also booms in the West.

Longer term who knows, however I suspect we will still see higher gold no matter what as Chinese demand isn't going away & neither is Western World debt. However I trade what's in front of me & try not to look too far ahead.

As an investment strategy I am currently 2/3rds invested & am looking to go to 100%, but being patient on picking up the last 3rd as I think there will be opportunities later today being Friday afternoon. IMO this quarter will be a time to maximize profits with exposure to gold. Sure I am talking my book, but that's where my money is & so to my mouth!

[Daytr]

Skol, it appears the Fed doesn't agree with your up-beat assessment of the US economy. Money (greenbacks), can't give it away! LOL


Many cities in the USA are booming, and an article in the WSJ reports that for every innovation job created 5 other service jobs are created. An example is SFO where house prices have exceed their previous highs and hi-tech companies are having to jack up the salaries to keep their staff. I went for a beer there the other night and asked the barmaid a question. She told me "I don't know, I've only been here 15 minutes".

[Skol]

Daytr,
You haven't taken into account that October is traditionally the worst month for gold, is a $60 increase it? I'm glad I'm not one of your clients, a couple of days ago you were out of gold now you're 66% invested, doesn't stack up, I'm not going to be reading about you in the newspapers soon am I?

The XGD certainly isn't registering any kind of turnaround, it's down today.

[Daytr]

Questioning my honesty Skol? That's a bit off ! Well I am open about what I invest & yes I pulled my positions at around $1420ish gold as I said openly here the price looked like it wanted to pull back. I then re-entered for a 2/3rds, & treaded out of a 1/3rd then back in which incurred a small loss, however more than made up yesterday where I made 20% on that 3rd and took profit. Today my portfolio is flat profit wise & I hope by the end of the day to be back fully invested 100%. As for my clients making them over 100% in the last three months, so they are very happy & I have paid out dividends of 25%!

I put my views & strategies out there to assist others however its up to them to make their own mind up on what they do & what their risk appetite is.

[Daytr]

By the way, October is usually a stellar month for gold! Its May that is traditionally the worst month for gold. The old saying May go away & don't come back to play until October! Not sure where you get your information from Skol, but that was a load of ....


Daytr,
You haven't taken into account that October is traditionally the worst month for gold, is a $60 increase it? I'm glad I'm not one of your clients, a couple of days ago you were out of gold now you're 66% invested, doesn't stack up, I'm not going to be reading about you in the newspapers soon am I?

The XGD certainly isn't registering any kind of turnaround, it's down today.

[Skol]

Daytr,
You haven't taken into account that October is traditionally the worst month for gold, is a $60 increase it? I'm glad I'm not one of your clients, a couple of days ago you were out of gold now you're 66% invested, doesn't stack up, I'm not going to be reading about you in the newspapers soon am I?

Lufthansa have just ordered 59 new jets, yeah, the world's really falling apart.

[Skol]

By the way, October is usually a stellar month for gold! Its May that is traditionally the worst month for gold. The old saying May go away & don't come back to play until October! Not sure where you get your information from Skol, but that was a load of ....

I got my information from a chart in my 'Gold Bubble' book. A gold seasonality chart.

Quote:

"Looking at seasonality in gold prices from 1969 to 2010, we can see tha September is the strongest month in terms of average monthly returns and October is the weakest."

Here's the seasonal strength of the HUI, not good for October, could be a lean month Daytr.

[Daytr]

Perhaps you should just look at a 5 year gold chart? 10 Year gold chart? I traded gold for 15 years on commodity desks for banks & trading houses. I think I know what I'm talking about on this on e me old Mucker! There has been the odd October that has performed poorly, I'll give you that. But for mine this isn't going to be one of them, however I don't think we are even going to have to wait until then. The rest of Sept looks pretty rosy to me.

[JBmurc]

Perhaps you should just look at a 5 year gold chart? 10 Year gold chart? I traded gold for 15 years on commodity desks for banks & trading houses. I think I know what I'm talking about on this on e me old Mucker! There has been the odd October that has performed poorly, I'll give you that. But for mine this isn't going to be one of them, however I don't think we are even going to have to wait until then. The rest of Sept looks pretty rosy to me.

Yeah I agree just looking at the last year Gold chart it shows clearly to have been under pressure since this time last year...THIS HAS NOW CLEARLY BEEN BROKEN ....if this run continues 1420+ short term it's really going show a clear ending of the Bear trend >>Longer term outlook we could well be back onto the BULL trend that started long ago (just view the 10yr chart)

Of course if Gold did now crash to sub 1200 the whole long term Bull trend would look to me to be broken but at this stage it's looking Bullish on simple T/A

[Skol]

Questioning my honesty Skol? That's a bit off ! Well I am open about what I invest & yes I pulled my positions at around $1420ish gold as I said openly here the price looked like it wanted to pull back. I then re-entered for a 2/3rds, & treaded out of a 1/3rd then back in which incurred a small loss, however more than made up yesterday where I made 20% on that 3rd and took profit. Today my portfolio is flat profit wise & I hope by the end of the day to be back fully invested 100%. As for my clients making them over 100% in the last three months, so they are very happy & I have paid out dividends of 25%

Making my clients over 100% in the last 3 months?

You don't possibly think that could be "too good to be true", I buy Barron's magazine when I'm in the USA, if you made 100% in 3 months, you'd be on the front cover. lol

I reckon even JB Murc would choke on that one.

The proof of the pudding's in the eating, show us the results and I'll believe you.

[JBmurc]

Making my clients over 100% in the last 3 months?

You don't possibly think that could be "too good to be true", I buy Barron's magazine when I'm in the USA, if you made 100% in 3 months, you'd be on the front cover. lol

I reckon even JB Murc would choke on that one.

The proof of the pudding's in the eating, show us the results and I'll believe you.


would be great to get a break down on 100% growth + 25% divi Daytr--- nearly always those numbers come with high amount of risk i.e CFD, futures ,Warrants one day 10% the next day down 20% etc If it's just been on the back of Day trading shares I would be impressed esp. if where talking million's of dollars invested

[Skol]

ouch, Monday is going to hurt for a lot of people! appears a sucker rally has just emerged. amazing what a few words with "taper" in them can do.

glad I sat this one out. never buy on a Friday when the market still has another day to play out while you wile away the weekend! :)

Yep, Daytr's loaded up, won't be 100% return this 3 months, a massacre come Monday.

Down $50 in the last 24hrs.

[peat]

Down $50 in the last 24hrs.
you forgot to mention it went up $80 in the 24 hrs before that

[JBmurc]

ouch, Monday is going to hurt for a lot of people! appears a sucker rally has just emerged. amazing what a few words with "taper" in them can do.

glad I sat this one out. never buy on a Friday when the market still has another day to play out while you wile away the weekend! :)


Overall it's a joke ,,,so called reason for sell-off is surprise,Surprise "TAPER TALK NOW OCTOBER" this is after 12 weeks of "HERE COMES THE TAPER" to fact we can't TAPER>>Bernanke specifically stated that “we are tied to the data, we don’t have a fixed calendar schedule” and that a low interest rate policy will be in effect until unemployment goes below 6.5%----then day later Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said a small tapering of bond buying is possible next month....WTF this has become a joke either Taper or don't enough of the B.S TALK....

Watching CNBC last night good interview with Major US Bank CEO stating he can't see how they can TAPER till least mid 2014 and even then it'll need to be backed up with some real positive data as tapering then having to raise would send a very bad message to the market....etc

[digger]

I would like to confess that after spending a life time earning money and after starting with just 3 dollars in1962 I am today well off but my confession is that I do not know hardly anything about money. My suspicion however is that I know just enough to know I know f---all.. For most of my fellow humans I do wish that they knew just a wee bit more so they could evolve to my state of knowing f---all.
All my life I have heard 1000's of times that we can not just go on getting deeper in debt, but we do and the solution if it can be called that is to go into debt a bit more.
So why can we not just raise the debt limit not only in the next few months but forever and ever as we have in the past. No one has ever reached infinity yet so why can this quantify easing not just carry on?
I fully suspect it will. Thoughts as I do not understand.

[mistymountain]

Hi Digger,

Decade wise we have seen:

1960's low personal debt with purchasing done in cash by individuals before goods and services consumed
1970's increasing personal debt with purchasing increasingly done on credit (debt) by individuals because of new financial debt tools (credit cards etc etc)
1980's higher personal debt increasing consuming done in credit fueling riskier wealth generating investments by individuals such as property
1990's high debt now shared by corporations. No change to 1970,1980 consuming and investing behaviours
2000's high debt now shared by governments corporations to bailout the corporations. No change to 1970 - 1990 consuming and investing behaviours
2010- sovereign debt supported by tax payers allows individuals and corporations to continue wealth generating behaviours with risks passed onto tax payers / society

My Big Questions are

At what point before 2020 do Governments need "help" to share sovereign debt and how will that be managed?

How will society react if governments are unable to finance the Quantitative Easing / money printing / low interest regime ?

My answer to your question is... we can carry on until we see a loss in confidence ("money") in value of what we have created (debt). We almost saw that at the peak of the GFC. That's why governments slashed interest rates and ramped up QE.

I'm fascinated by the next stage to 2020 and look forward to thoughts on this.

Cheers

[Skol]

There is more debt than in the past, but also tighter regulations, scrutiny and consequences for transgressors. Society doesn't function without debt and that's a fact, but there's also been a huge reduction in debt since 2007.

2007 was always going to happen and there were plenty of warnings in the FT and the Economist that property and debt were out of control, so I reduced my debt accordingly, I fail to see how so many got caught out, it was a massive bubble and the consequences of the bubble will be around for years to come.

You didn't need to be Albert Einstein to see it coming.

Not forgetting of course that much of the misery since 2007 has been caused by greed, whether it's Blue Chip, finance companies or towns and cities losing millions trying to extract that extra income using sub-prime debt.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terra_Securities_scandal

Warren Buffett doesn't seem too concerned, neither does Bernanke, only the goldbugs perpetuate the myth that economic catastrophe is at hand when in fact there have been 2 periods in the 20th century when the USA had more debt than it does now. As the economy improves, so the debt will reduce.

Even if I thought an economic implosion was imminent, I'd pay off debt (which I already did in 2006), and buy things people need, I wouldn't buy gold or silver.

Goldbugs also await the day that the US economy will be overtaken by China, but it's not going to happen, China's headed into a recession and the USA is headed out. China's an accident waiting to happen; debt, property prices, one party state, rioting, corruption, political despots like Bo Xi Lai, environmental catastrophes and ethnic unrest. China is incapable of building an aircraft carrier, the USA built one every 2 weeks in WW2.

As Warren Buffett says about gold, "it has no utility".

Nothing's perfect, never is, but things have been a lot worse like WW1 and WW2, but humans have a habit of solving problems in the long-run, all is well as far as I'm concerned.

Gold and silver have declined for over 2 years, precious metals are dead in the water, yesterday's punt, a flash-in-the-pan.

Goldbuggery thrives on fear and conspiracy theories, treat them with the contempt they deserve.

[Bobcat.]

I would like to confess that after spending a life time earning money and after starting with just 3 dollars in1962 I am today well off but my confession is that I do not know hardly anything about money. My suspicion however is that I know just enough to know I know f---all.. For most of my fellow humans I do wish that they knew just a wee bit more so they could evolve to my state of knowing f---all.
All my life I have heard 1000's of times that we can not just go on getting deeper in debt, but we do and the solution if it can be called that is to go into debt a bit more.
So why can we not just raise the debt limit not only in the next few months but forever and ever as we have in the past. No one has ever reached infinity yet so why can this quantify easing not just carry on?
I fully suspect it will. Thoughts as I do not understand.

Because of inflation (currently understated by the Obama Admin) and then hyperinflation. It's happened with many other economies (Germany, Argentina, Rhodesia, etc) - you cannot just keep printing money forever expecting the economy to pick up unless you get a decent rate of return (e.g. job creation, industry and GDP growth, etc) which QE is not producing. It's a slippery slope, a very slippery slope. Watch out - by year end (perhaps by November) people are going to get very frightened by what's been put in motion by Borrow-big Obama and his cohorts. Keynesian economics is long on promise and short on evidence that heavy borrowing gets economies out of strife. You don't need to look much further than Greece. On paper, the US of A will by 2014 be a candidate for an IMF bailout - a very large one...unless of course the Chinese negotiate a deal to purchase California which most other Americans wouldn't mind selling off.

BC

[Skol]

Yeah I agree just looking at the last year Gold chart it shows clearly to have been under pressure since this time last year...THIS HAS NOW CLEARLY BEEN BROKEN

Show me a chart with a 'breakout'.

Looking forward to it. Hahaha

[JBmurc]

Anyone with basic T/A skills can see 1350 was a very pivotal point for gold twice on it Bear trend it bounced till it was broken mid June and fell all the way to it low point High resistance level 1200 where from there the BEAR trend was broken as the Short term Pivotal point 1350 was crossed on that new Bull trend it double topped out 1420's($220 rise)a reversed downwards to make a bottom 1320's then under one of the biggest one day moves Gold move some $60 upwards passed the 1350 ST Pivotal point ......That to me at that exact time looked to be the start of a break higher towards 1420 resistance >>>>but as we see at present Gold has moved downwards again .....will it Double bottom the 1320's to make a strong charge on the 1420's or will it break lower to double bottom of a lower point or will it (in SKOL's wet dreams) break through 1200 to start the major BEAR TREND once again

4860


Show me a chart with a 'breakout'.

Looking forward to it. Hahaha

[JBmurc]

Next up for JPMorgan: A fight with the CFTC

JPMorgan spent nearly a billion dollars settling charges related to the so-called London Whale debacle, but that doesn't mean it's out of the woods yet.

A threatened lawsuit from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission could portend a drawn-out legal battle—or another expensive settlement.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101051584

[Skol]

JB,

6 month gold? You may as well front up with a chart for 6 week gold, how about 1 year?

There's no breakout here, it's all downhill, and about to get worse for overexposed goldbugs.

OMG, and you're still banging on about JP Morgan, time to get over it, it's a non-event, so JPM lost some money, big deal, happens all the time.

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=Skol;428845]JB,

6 month gold? You may as well front up with a chart for 6 week gold, how about 1 year?

There's no breakout here, it's all downhill, poverty approaches for overexposed goldbugs.


Geez your a knob >>> ^1yr , 6month , 6 week who cares simple T/A the down trend was stopped,,,, broken,,, finished ON THE DOUBLE BOTTOM !! july 1200 !! now this doesn't mean Gold is going to 2000 next week or GOLD couldn't fall further.... just the year long DOWNTREND WAS BROKEN ....where we go is anyone's guess it could well trade sideways without strong direction trading 1300-1400 etc
Or make a new break one direction for Gold HATERS like yourself your be cheerleading a strong move south past the recent double 1200 bottom which would put the long term bear trend back on track ....or for the believers in sanity in this mass money creating madness that GOLD will put check on the Trillions of new freely created $$$$$$ like it has done all through history time n time again...and break the 1420's towards 1500-1600+

[JBmurc]

I would like to confess that after spending a life time earning money and after starting with just 3 dollars in1962 I am today well off but my confession is that I do not know hardly anything about money. My suspicion however is that I know just enough to know I know f---all.. For most of my fellow humans I do wish that they knew just a wee bit more so they could evolve to my state of knowing f---all.
All my life I have heard 1000's of times that we can not just go on getting deeper in debt, but we do and the solution if it can be called that is to go into debt a bit more.
So why can we not just raise the debt limit not only in the next few months but forever and ever as we have in the past. No one has ever reached infinity yet so why can this quantify easing not just carry on?
I fully suspect it will. Thoughts as I do not understand.

Big fan of CNBC --Rick Santelli well worth watching some of his clips here is a recent one

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-riVt9O3Kc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ROwgXVERq4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEJ4jSXF2d4

Gold market is not longer real it's just paper "gold bugs" will just end up with paper gold contracts
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAbYlelZx_w

[Skol]

This is from the FT, $1,000 here we come.

------------------------------------

“Gold’s a worthwhile hold when the global economy is in turmoil and you’re worried about where your assets are protected best,” says Mr Rundle. “But with the US economy resurging, the eurozone back in growth mode and the UK economy showing encouraging signs of growth, the global economy is in a much better place than, say, two years ago when uncertainty drove the market and pushed investors running to the safe arms of gold, core government bonds and the US dollar, Japanese yen.”

However, he thinks gold could fall below $1000/oz after the start of tapering and adds that the investment case for the precious metal has been tarnished by the prospects of Fed tapering and the impact it has on financial markets during the process of tapering. He says clients at ETX Capital have closed positions in gold ETFs so the expectation is that there is only one way gold will go during the QE unwind process – down.

and:


Alfonso Esparza, senior currency analyst at OANDA, agrees, saying a strong non-farm payroll number and a quick resolution to potential American involvement in Syria would boost the dollar and “in turn set the stage for the Fed to begin tapering this month, negatively impacting gold prices”.

This widespread negative sentiment is summed up nicely by Steve Ruffley, chief market strategist at CFD provider InterTrader, who says: “The speculators have already made their money from gold. There is just simply not enough fear or greed in the markets for gold to head back to $1900/oz.”

[Skol]

[QUOTE=Skol;428845]JB,

6 month gold? You may as well front up with a chart for 6 week gold, how about 1 year?

There's no breakout here, it's all downhill, poverty approaches for overexposed goldbugs.


Geez your a knob >>> ^1yr , 6month , 6 week who cares simple T/A the down trend was stopped,,,, broken,,, finished ON THE DOUBLE BOTTOM !! july 1200 !! now this doesn't mean Gold is going to 2000 next week or GOLD couldn't fall further.... just the year long DOWNTREND WAS BROKEN ....where we go is anyone's guess it could well trade sideways without strong direction trading 1300-1400 etc
Or make a new break one direction for Gold HATERS like yourself your be cheerleading a strong move south past the recent double 1200 bottom which would put the long term bear trend back on track ....or for the believers in sanity in this mass money creating madness that GOLD will put check on the Trillions of new freely created $$$$$$ like it has done all through history time n time again...and break the 1420's towards 1500-1600+

I'll send a message to Bernanke to consult a country bumpkin from Queenstown called JB Murc before he makes any decisions on the US economy.
---------------

Definition of 'bumpkin':

An unsophisticated person. Not very intellegent or interested in culture.

Generally refers to someone living in a rural area.


Bumpkin is a derivative of bum, “the rear end. It may come from either the Middle Dutch word bommekijn, “ a little barrel,” or the Flemish word boomken, “shrub" Such a person may easily have been compared to a block of wood;

------------------------

When silver gets to $5 I'll be in touch, I'd like to purchase a 1kg souvenir, preferably one with lots of 8's in the serial number.
Thanks, I know you'll put one aside for me.

It'll be a piece of memorabilia of the great 21st century gold and silver crash.

How's gold and silver going compared with this?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/9191294/Rise-of-the-million-dollar-home

[JBmurc]

can't wait until those mortgagee sales start in Auckland, will be buying at the very bottom there as a stupid money chases even stupider money.

just shows in Friday how much fear is still left in the gold market. one unknown Fed board member mentions POSSIBLE tapering in October and the market blows up. glad I didn't buy in on Thursday; knew it was too good to be true.

wilk be watching in earnest for another bottom in a few weeks. $1050 from goldmans is still on the table...

Yeah I didn't bother either really think a move past 1420-30 is needed to show us a true bullish move ....1050 will come into play if 1200 is broken....

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=JBmurc;428846]

I'll send a message to Bernanke to consult a country bumpkin from Queenstown called JB Murc before he makes any decisions on the US economy.
---------------

Definition of 'bumpkin':

An unsophisticated person. Not very intellegent or interested in culture.

Generally refers to someone living in a rural area.


Bumpkin is a derivative of bum, “the rear end. It may come from either the Middle Dutch word bommekijn, “ a little barrel,” or the Flemish word boomken, “shrub" Such a person may easily have been compared to a block of wood;

------------------------

When silver gets to $5 I'll be in touch, I'd like to purchase a 1kg souvenir, preferably one with lots of 8's in the serial number.
Thanks, I know you'll put one aside for me.

It'll be a piece of memorabilia of the great 21st century gold and silver crash.

How's gold and silver going compared with this?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/9191294/Rise-of-the-million-dollar-home


You Idol Bernanke's Getting out ...didn't you here

In his semi-annual testimony before the House Committee on Financial Services, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was very clear about how the central bank engages in quantitative easing. We are printing money, just not literally, the Chairman told policymakers, while contradicting himself regarding recent record highs in stock markets
http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2013/07/17/bernanke-to-congress-we-are-printing-money-just-not-literally/


Bernanke flunked it – and we will all suffer
"As a practitioner of markets, I love this stuff,” said Stanley Druckenmiller. “This stuff is fantastic for every rich person. It’s the biggest distribution of wealth from the poor and the middle classes to the rich ever.”--Stanley Druckenmiller

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/10325540/Bernanke-flunked-it-and-we-will-all-suffer.html

I watched the interview on CNBC with Stanley Druckenmiller---among Wall Street’s most fabled investors. He started Duquesne Capital in the early 1980s and then teamed up with George Soros, running the legendary Quantum Fund. Together they made billions of dollars by “breaking the Bank of England”, shorting the pound in massive volumes and forcing sterling out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism. That was in 1992.

[elZorro]

Some interesting charts from Equedia showing that QE4 couldn't reach any of the targets for tapering, and that these targets are still safe.

http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=orkbnrcab&v=001SBtHnIBAttMkWOltQKk8e1WaKtQQbXB-mnirD_3T0DstbQFbjTJ_TDID0jHqm46pRQSWJ_595_HbzSd3cX D9W0mleu7hWKB8finPoExDJ9o%3D

[JBmurc]

Some interesting charts from Equedia showing that QE4 couldn't reach any of the targets for tapering, and that these targets are still safe.

http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=orkbnrcab&v=001SBtHnIBAttMkWOltQKk8e1WaKtQQbXB-mnirD_3T0DstbQFbjTJ_TDID0jHqm46pRQSWJ_595_HbzSd3cX D9W0mleu7hWKB8finPoExDJ9o%3D

----Gold getting smashed will 1300 hold ??? ----Crazy when you look at what happen in the Gold market during Q.E 1 , 2 .....

The Fed’s balance sheet has grown massively in the QE3 era, up a whopping 29.2% in the year since QE3 was born! That is $818b worth of bonds purchased, a staggering amount of new money created out of thin air in a single year. Indeed as of the end of August, QE3’s $40b per month of mortgage-backed-bond buying and $45b per month of Treasury buying added up to $800b. September is adding another $85b.

QE2 only had $600b of new buying, and that was so inflationary that the gold price surged 24.7% higher over its span. Bernanke laid out his best-case (fastest) scenario for QE3 tapering in mid-June. It proposed starting the taper later this year and ending QE3 entirely by mid-2014. If you run the math on this, it would have grown QE3 by another $383b or so, taking its total over a whopping $1250b.
-doc

So Gold market has now been disconnected from the Money printing???>>>just another play thing for the major funds/Banks/traders esp with the rise of the ETF's how many Billions pulled away from phyz /PM shares etc (au/ag ETF's like the dot.com no real backing)....can't last for ever ....like I stated in the past BRING on $600 gold stop the Q.E completely IMHO these will bring the true value of Gold Silver much faster than this ongoing round
about of B.S
Might well need the Q.E to finish to help

[Skol]

Always amazes the number of goldbugs that criticize Bernanke, an educated and experienced economist who studied the great depression, yet these very same goldbugs are unable to spell or punctuate a sentence.

They probably got their economic education at the Peter Schiff school of economics.

[Daytr]

Skol, actually didn't get hit on my bid on Friday so am 2/3rds invested. So please Skol, leave it to me state my position not your supposition. I said I was going to be patient on the last 3rd. So today have lowered my bid slightly. Suspect we will see correction today & that Friday was over zealous longs squaring up before the weekend. But gold does need to trade back above $1350 quickly to maintain a track higher, so will see.

In regards the returns on my portfolio Skol. I really don't care if you believe me or not & I'm certainly not publishing what I do to all & sundry. That's why I get paid to do what I do. I will say, I do trade in juniors so there is high risk/reward & I do trade in & out, but that's as far as I'm willing to say. My background was financing junior gold mines so what I offer my clients is that knowledge & experience which helps offset some of that risk.

Seeing you have know idea really what I do, its interesting you make comments like a 'massacre on Monday' Perhaps I'll be taking a hit, will wait & see, but again leave it to me to say what my portfolio is doing rather than pulling things out of thin air.


Yep, Daytr's loaded up, won't be 100% return this 3 months, a massacre come Monday.

Down $50 in the last 24hrs.

[Skol]

You're the one that gloats about returns that I would classify as something even more outrageous than Charles Ponzi, probably to drum up a little business, right?

Why would you even post it here if you're offended when someone queries returns that would rate a mention in the Wall Street Journal?

The XGD is down over 5%

[Skol]

Skol, actually didn't get hit on my bid on Friday so am 2/3rds invested. So please Skol, leave it to me state my position not your supposition. I said I was going to be patient on the last 3rd. So today have lowered my bid slightly. Suspect we will see correction today & that Friday was over zealous longs squaring up before the weekend. But gold does need to trade back above $1350 quickly to maintain a track higher, so will see.

In regards the returns on my portfolio Skol. I really don't care if you believe me or not & I'm certainly not publishing what I do to all & sundry.

Yes you are, you're posting it here for all and sundry to read.

[Daytr]

Skol, the main difference between me & you, is that if you made money be it in airline stocks or what ever I would congratulate you, however all you want to slate others. Yep I put out there what I do to a degree & obviously can't give away my strategy completely. What I am saying is I don't care if YOU believe me or not. Anyway I'm not going to waste my time trying to convert you & I'm sure we both have better things to do.

[peat]

Skol , the main difference between me & you, is that if you made money be it in airline stocks or what ever I would congratulate you, however all you want to slate others.

Yeh I agree Datyr , while it is important for everyone to express their view on a forum freely, for a long time there has existed a snide and quite ugly aspect to Skols postings . I've decided to set him on 'Ignore' from now on. Its not as if he even has any Precious Metals so seems to participate for all the wrong reasons.

[Skol]

Yeh I agree Datyr , while it is important for everyone to express their view on a forum freely, for a long time there has existed a snide and quite ugly aspect to Skols postings . I've decided to set him on 'Ignore' from now on. Its not as if he even has any Precious Metals so seems to participate for all the wrong reasons.

Help yourself, if you want 'ugly' look no further than goldbugs who love a bit of economic mayhem, war and carnage to further their cause and make a few dollars. Actually it's despicable and the reason I stopped posting on Hot Copper.

Goldbugs thrive on misery, but they've got it wrong, because the 1980 goldbugs are no longer goldbugs, they had a lesson they won't forget.

I started this thread because I believed gold was a bubble, I was right, choke on that peat. How about a nuclear war, how good would that be?

[Skol]

*a moose walks by , shrugs its antlers and keeps on walking by*

There are no moose in NZ.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/9196635/Moose-continue-to-be-camera-shy

[JBmurc]

Help yourself, if you want 'ugly' look no further than goldbugs who love a bit of economic mayhem, war and carnage to further their cause and make a few dollars. Actually it's despicable and the reason I stopped posting on Hot Copper.

Goldbugs thrive on misery, but they've got it wrong, because the 1980 goldbugs are no longer goldbugs, they had a lesson they won't forget.

I started this thread because I believed gold was a bubble, I was right, choke on that peat. How about a nuclear war, how good would that be?

Yeah yeah you called a bubble at 1000 gold went up near another 90% and is still 30% higher than your bubble ya you got it so right mate hahaha

[Skol]

Yeah yeah you called a bubble at 1000 gold went up near another 90% and is still 30% higher than your bubble ya you got it so right mate hahaha

I got it right, suckers buy into a mania and it always gets out of control, now gold's returning to the mean, but it's got a long way south to go yet.

To get it correct, gold was $1,100 when I started this thread.

[JBmurc]

I got it right, suckers buy into a mania and it always gets out of control, now gold's returning to the mean, but it's got a long way south to go yet.

To get it correct, gold was $1,100 when I started this thread.

As you started the very first post on this thread with-----
"I've been having a debate on another thread with JBMurc on gold.Personally I think it's going to be a fizzer and we've seen the highs for the next few years."

Fact was we debated Gold's future on the Forex "GOLD Thread" and others when gold was sub 1000oz ...but as your getting on maybe you can recall that LOL

[Skol]

No end in sight.

[Silverlight]

The gold market is like any other market, there are always opportunities to be long and short. While you guys argue the semantics on when or if the US will default, my gold trade continues to add gains.

GDX entry $23.55, today $30.42 +29.2% in under 8 weeks.
GDXJ entry $38.40, today $52.21 +36.0% in under 8 weeks.

Gold @ 1371 +9.7%

SPX @ 1633 +1.3%.



If gold closes below 1250, I will close my positions, currently:

GDX entry $23.55, today $25.12 +6.7% over 10 weeks.
GDXJ entry $38.40, today $40.70 +6.0% over 10 weeks.

Gold @ 1276 +2.1%

SPX @ 1701 +5.6%

[Daytr]

Love it Moosie! haha

We are all entitled to our opinions & for the most I enjoy Skol's posts as its good to have a contrarian on board. However what I don't like is putting blanket labels on people & misquoting others or stating what other's opinions or profits etc might be. Stick to your own opinions & I am happy to disagree or agree with that. Skol you started this when gold was under $1100 so you were wrong for a very long time & gold still hasn't got below where you said it was a bubble. It may do, or may not, if I knew that for sure I would be sponsoring an America's Cup syndicate. :cool:. Yesterday my portfolio was down slightly & today it has regained that & some. I have flicked from one stock (for a small profit) to one that has just found a gold anomaly 15kms in length! Check out Gold Juniors thread if you want more details.


*a moose walks by , shrugs its antlers and keeps on walking by*

[Skol]

Skol you started this when gold was under $1100

I started this thread on 31/12/2009, so I'll have an apology please.

[Skol]

As for my clients making them over 100% in the last three months, so they are very happy & I have paid out dividends of 25%!

You and Charles Ponzi have something in common Daytr. lol
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Carlo Pietro Giovanni Guglielmo Tebaldo Ponzi, (March 3, 1882 – January 18, 1949), commonly known as Charles Ponzi, was an Italian businessman and con artist in the U.S. and Canada. His aliases include Charles Ponci, Carlo and Charles P. Bianchi.[1] Born in Italy, he became known in the early 1920s as a swindler in North America for his money making scheme. Charles Ponzi promised clients a 50% profit within 45 days, or 100% profit within 90 days
----------------------------------------------------------------------

[Daytr]

Apologise for what Skol? $20ish? You were wrong by $800 when gold peaked & you are still wrong over 3.5 years later by $200, perhaps it should be you who should apologise to everyone on here that may have listened to your rants & missed out on a massive opportunity. You just related me to Charles Ponzi & you are asking for an apology! You have to be kidding. I think you have spent far to much time in rarefied air Skol. Anyway you are still yet to be right as gold hasn't traded as low as when you started this thread. But no doubt you will keep banging on. Keep it up Skol I need a good laugh every now & then.

[Bobcat.]

There is resistance at $1330USD that has been tested not once, twice or three times but now four. If it breaks through, I'm bullish. I'm holding a few, but my finger is on the trigger to accummulate more (implementing my "Buy on the way up, sell on the way down" strategy, which is easy enough to nod to but timeframes are of course a key factor).

As a short-term trader in 50% of my holdings, my timeframe is typically 3 months, and the technicals are starting to scream at me - "Buy!". Those with less appetite for risk may prefer to wait until the POG breaks $1350 or, if you are even more risk averse, $1375 (very firm resistance) but then I would say you'd suffer from paranoia and inertia. Meanwhile, the rest of us will be taking profits just under that level.

Happy sailing.
BC

[Daytr]

Nice one Bobcat. I'm probably a bit more loaded up than I would like at this point, however I like the levels I have bought my stocks in at generally so not too concerned. Views from the banks seem to be all over the place on POG direction, so could be an interesting couple of weeks.

[Skol]

3 banks forecast lower gold prices.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/09/23/citi-gold-gains-will-be-short-lived-silver-also-headed-south/

[Skol]

Apologise for what Skol? $20ish? You were wrong by $800 when gold peaked & you are still wrong over 3.5 years later by $200, perhaps it should be you who should apologise to everyone on here that may have listened to your rants & missed out on a massive opportunity.

"a massive opportunity."

I'm not into putting my hard-earned cash into bubbles, manias or ponzi schemes. Investing Decoded described gold as the greatest scam on Earth, but no one will go to jail when it's all over.

I got thoroughly rubbished by this dude on Hot Copper a while back, a gold 'expert', who described me as a 'serial nuisance', but I noticed he's removed his gold (A & B) fund returns from his website, probably for obvious reasons.

http://www.goldoz.com.au/home.0.html

[elZorro]

"a massive opportunity."

I'm not into putting my hard-earned cash into bubbles, manias or ponzi schemes. Investing Decoded described gold as the greatest scam on Earth, but no one will go to jail when it's all over.

But, isn't gold a type of investment? There is a very recent (several years long) strong correlation of the amount of foreign funds invested in US Treasuries (Bonds) with the US$ gold price. It's irrefutable. The Bond market worldwide is three times the size of the equities market. In USA, bonds are 65% of investments, stocks another 35% of the stocks and bonds investments total. Maybe that's what gold is all about. From CHFIR in Canada, an outfit that handles junior gold explorers.


"The price of gold is trading today at US$1,328.00 per ounce on the NYMEX. One year ago gold was trading at US$1,800.00 per ounce and the major sell-off has prompted a debate among analysts regarding the outlook for gold over the next two years. I have found a range in the price forecasts from a low price of US$1,000.00 to a high price of US$2,500.00 per ounce by the end of 2014. Our outlook has a gold price of US$1,550.00 per ounce by the end of this year and by the end of 2014 our outlook rises to US$1,750.00 per ounce .
We expect that gold demand for jewellery in China and India will continue to increase over the next two years. While the US economy has improved there is still a large budget deficit and a huge trade deficit which will result in some Central Banks and sovereign funds buying gold as a substitute for the US dollar. We believe that the current bond purchases by the Federal Reserve in the long end of the bond market will be phased out in the next two years which will result in modestly higher long term interest rates. This will cause an outflow of capital from the long end of the bond market. In previous periods when capital has left the long end of the bond market the money has flowed to the short term bond market, the equity markets, and the commodity markets. One should remember that the size of the bond market is much larger than either the equity markets or the commodity markets. Thus a relatively small percentage of funds exiting the bond market can have a significant impact especially in the commodity markets. We expect that some money from the long term bond market will increase the demand for gold over the next two years.
Our outlook for gold supply over the next two years is lower than some of the other gold industry forecasts. We continue to see labour shortages, power shortages, permitting problems, and rising economic nationalism in some jurisdictions which has resulted in the delay of some projects that were to begin in the next two years.

[Skol]

But, isn't gold a type of investment? There is a very recent (several years long) strong correlation of the amount of foreign funds invested in US Treasuries (Bonds) with the US$ gold price. It's irrefutable. The Bond market worldwide is three times the size of the equities market. In USA, bonds are 65% of investments, stocks another 35% of the stocks and bonds investments total. Maybe that's what gold is all about. From CHFIR in Canada, an outfit that handles junior gold explorers.

Yes, gold is a type of investment, but US Treasuries are backed by the US govt., gold is backed by nothing. The Chinese Govt's buying record amounts of US Treasuries recently, there's got to be a good reason for that.

Well, it is shiny and gives owners a misguided feeling that it's the '5000 year store of value.'.

It has its place and I guess I own some gold shares, but only through a Natural Resources Fund, which incidentally hasn't done that well recently.

[Daytr]

Backed by a US Govt that is in deficit each month to the tune of $35-60Bln a month & the gap is filled by issuing more US Treasuries. But that doesn't matter of course as the debt ceiling will just keep being moved higher. US Govt that backs these treasuries is now at 16 Trillion!

[QUOTE=Skol;429289]Yes, gold is a type of investment, but US Treasuries are backed by the US govt., gold is backed by nothing.

[Daytr]

Thought this was quite entertaining. Chinese Housewives vs Goldmans

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/columns/scimitar-equity/5059/chinese-housewives-vs-goldman-sachs-no-contest-5059.html

[Bobcat.]

Thought this was quite entertaining. Chinese Housewives vs Goldmans

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/columns/scimitar-equity/5059/chinese-housewives-vs-goldman-sachs-no-contest-5059.html.

I like your article, Daytr - some common sense amidst the proud and lofty proclamations of Goldmans, JP Morgan and other analysts who too easily forget how wrong, and how often, they have been concerning POG movements. Improving their market research to include more of a Chinese and Indian consumer perspective is long overdue. Instead they seem more interested in manipulating the market to make a few extra bucks.

BC

[Daytr]

Hi Moosie, I think you may have missed the point, or maybe not you may just disagree. GS have been the bank oracle particularly when it came to gold for a long time & a lot of other markets as well & they have generally been the smartest guys in the 'room'. But what its saying here is that whilst the Western World listens to the likes of GS a hell of a lot people who consume gold don't & they will just absorb gold & the more of it if the price comes off. So over time continued bearish calls on gold from the likes of Goldman will run into this appetite & at a certain point they will choose to swim with the tide not against it. They have swum with the tide of the liquidation of ETFs, however when the tide shifts & Asian buying outweighs ETF liquidation then I'm sure the likes of Goldman will get on-board gold. Since the GFC many of these large investment banks have got rid of their prop desks & a lot of talent, so although they are smart, their research & calls on markets has deteriorated substantially since they have let a lot of their top talent go imo
.

the market only pays what it is willing to pay, and the market listens to Goldman Sachs, not Chinese housewives! the sooner we all learn this the sooner we can all gain from it. it might be a big f***aroo, but that's how it is and how it will be until something changes.

remember, the market can stay irrational much longer than you can stay illiquid ;)

[Skol]

Backed by a US Govt that is in deficit each month to the tune of $35-60Bln a month & the gap is filled by issuing more US Treasuries. But that doesn't matter of course as the debt ceiling will just keep being moved higher. US Govt that backs these treasuries is now at 16 Trillion!

[QUOTE=Skol;429289]Yes, gold is a type of investment, but US Treasuries are backed by the US govt., gold is backed by nothing.

And you reckon you're not a goldbug.

That's the same old boring tedious diatribe that Peter Schiff, the Aden Sisters, Jim Rickards, Eric Hommelberg, Martin Armstrong, Egon von Greyerz, Gerald Celente, James Turk, Mike Maloney and all the other 'experts' have been telling us for years, pleading for us to lend them our ears to hear the story of hyperinflation and the ultimate financial implosion.

Has it happened? Of course not, and it won't either.

Suckers have paid for this advice, pretty pathetic actually.

http://bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=21102:these-90-analysts-believe-gold-will-go-to-5000ozt&catid=61:lorimer-wilson&Itemid=138

Many goldbugs are slow learners and the fact that they're losing heaps compared with other investments doesn't seem to faze them.

In my next life I'm gonna come back as a scamster, because as they say, 'there's one born every minute', I've seen people lose more money than you could ever believe, whether it's on property, shares, silver, gold, internet dating, Nigerian rip-offs, lottery 'wins', computer 'fixes', you name it, and gold is one of the biggest scams ever, there's a rumour Glenn Beck made millions out of unsophisticated TV bozos, selling gold and emphasising how the world economic system was on its last legs. Beck got out close to the top.

Even Ben Bernanke says he doesn't understand gold, probably because it's mostly speculation, rumour and conspiracy theory.

You've posted a number of times about you're 'experience' as a trader Daytr, which I will take with a grain of salt as I would with anyone who alleges to have made 100% in 3 months, but John Paulson has plenty of experience too, and he lost a billion in a week. On gold.

[JBmurc]

That's the same old boring tedious diatribe that Peter Schiff....yeah like his View on the TAPER which was dead right !! unlike the Doz of so called experts stating TAPER was for sure coming ?? like yourself

round the 5min mark "I don't think the FED will Taper"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGkFJyjnAuk

[Bobcat.]

Gold looking terrible on the technical side of things these days. Nicely riding the bottom Bollinger Band lower on the monthly candlestick chart. More hurting ahead:



Moosie, do you ever get something wrong and then admit it? You have been so negative on Gold since I've been involved in this forum these past few weeks, that you've blinded yourself to the momentum shift that occured last week when the US Federal Reserve decided not to taper its money printing / bond buying. It was a momentum shift! Does that mean nothing to you?

POG is trading higher today (predictably) off a new bottom -- USD1318. Previous resistance of USD1330 has been broken (see my earlier post). If that now becomes a support level through today, I would say that's a clear sign that the Bulls are back in control.

BC

Discl: Holding a lot of gold stocks and accumulating more.

[Bobcat.]

The Feds will continue to print money until Inflation rears its ugly head, and then it will be too late to repair the damage done to the USD and American economy. Don't be too quick to believe their reports on how close last Wednesday's vote was, or that they will almost certainly taper at end of October, or that the American economy is recovering, etc. Their Debt to GDP ratio is climbing so rapidly it's screaming at any economist worth his salt of an impending danger / economic catastrophe. They meanwhile try to tickle our ears with what we would rather hear...but do not be deceived. I'm no puppet to their string-pulling, and neither should you be.

The $80B per month is not creating enough jobs to sustain a recovery - why would they taper? They are strongly motivated to do otherwise. And even if they do, it is not like QE1 or QE2 where they tapered to zero. A $10B taper is but a token gesture, and itself misleading.

BC

[JBmurc]

The Feds will continue to print money until Inflation rears its ugly head, and then it will be too late to repair the damage done to the USD and American economy. Don't be too quick to believe their reports on how close last Wednesday's vote was, or that they will almost certainly taper at end of October, or that the American economy is recovering, etc. Their Debt to GDP ratio is climbing so rapidly it's screaming at any economist worth his salt of an impending danger / economic catastrophe. They meanwhile try to tickle our ears with what we would rather hear...but do not be deceived. I'm no puppet to their string-pulling, and neither should you be.

The $80B per month is not creating enough jobs to sustain a recovery - why would they taper? They are strongly motivated to do otherwise. And even if they do, it is not like QE1 or QE2 where they tapered to zero. A $10B taper is but a token gesture, and itself misleading.

BC


Yeah I understood it was like a 9-1 vote for NO TAPER not exactly close ...had it been the same as QE 1 (800billion) QE 2(600bilion) this taper would have been maybe 1 Trillion+
But instead no one knows if it will ever end completely as the US CAN'T keep it together without it ...

On the Debt ceiling (yet another thing that looks unlikely to end) I hear Obama now saying the debt ceiling had absolutely nothing to do with debt..

[Daytr]

I see one of two scenarios panning out. The Fed tapers early & before the economy is ready & the share market plunges. The 2nd is they have to wait for better economic conditions such as un-employment around 6% & in that situation tapering won't begin for another 12 months at least. There is a 3rd, they just scrap QE altogether but not for reasons of not requiring stimulus, but one that its a very inefficient way to deliver it with substantial & unknown risks associated with it. I can't see the 3rd happening if at all for at least 6-9 months.

[Daytr]

By the way its Thursday so that means rally night. Should see $1350 broken tonight, just my opinion.

[Bobcat.]

The 3rd option is too politically embarrasing for the Obama Admin and Feds. I've read estimates of between $500,000 and $800,000 as the COST of each new job created via the QE Stimulus programme. Obama and the Feds are Keynesian devotees through and through, in spite of the huge lack of evidence that excessive borrowing is the best route out of any economic malaise. It's a politically sound strategy (at best) since it defers the problem to future adminstrations and the country's children but it's not proven to be economically sound, particularly at these debts levels incurred lately. The American ego unfortunately regards as unpatriotic the nay sayers to this warped, uproven and perilous approach to fiscal (mis)management.

At least the Europeans (the German's mainly) have some respect for more responsible, austere economic management, as unpopular politically as that may be. When the ECB prints money to bailout a country, it's with strict fiscal policy conditions attached (and yes, OK, sovereignty overrides as well) so as to bring a more sustainable outcome to bear.

Where or where is the sustainability in the USA's excessive (and rising) Debt/GDP ratio, its relatively pathetic level of job creation and (given the rapidly rising long term interest rates) its low level of inflation? It is not only doomsters who are observing that the worst is yet to come.

BC

[Bobcat.]

Good point, Daytr. I plan to take some profit tomorrow afternoon. Just how much will depend on the strength of the rally.

Cheers,

BC

[Bobcat.]

Sooooo, you're arguing for gold to go way up, yet you're selling? Actions speak A LOT louder than words my friend. Another poster on here has also sold up and was, until very recently, hyping up gold. Hmmmmm....

I'm a trader - if there is a small rally overnight, I sell down half my gold stocks Friday afternoon, which historically is when the ASX often has a sell off. I'll be back in next week...buying in on the lows.

If however the rally is massive, I'll be holding to sell on the way down. It's not rocket science. Knowing when to time my trades (buys and sells) is just as important as understanding the stock's underlying fundamentals and market trends.

BC

[Bobcat.]

Sooooo, you're arguing for gold to go way up, yet you're selling? Actions speak A LOT louder than words my friend. Another poster on here has also sold up and was, until very recently, hyping up gold. Hmmmmm....

I'm a trader - if there is a small rally overnight, I sell down half my gold stocks Friday afternoon, which historically is when the ASX often has a sell off. I'll be back in next week...buying in on the lows.

If however the rally is massive, I'll be holding to sell on the way down. It's not rocket science. Knowing when to time my trades (buys and sells) is just as important as understanding the stock's underlying fundamentals and market trends.

Prayer also helps (which I don't do enough of).

BC

[peat]

Gold looking terrible on the technical side of things these days. Nicely riding the bottom Bollinger Band lower on the monthly candlestick chart. More hurting ahead:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/McKinney/2013-09-23-Option-Play-Gold-At-Resistance.html

That TA is based on SMA and Bolli bands.
Just for the record another TA view could be that following an a-b-c correction from the 2011 high we have now seen a five wave move which may be considered impulsive commencing at somewhere around the 61.8% fib retracement of the late 2008 - mid 2011 move.
This chart shows the weekly view with the EW count (white) and a fib level in orange.

4870

Zooming in a bit onto the daily view to show only the last few months we can more clearly see this five wave move from the late Jun 2013 low.
We can also see a subsequent a-b-c move and the question is whether this has completed or not. It has also retraced nearly 61.8% of its gain and then had the big bounce from the non-taper announcement.
4871

Moving to the hourly chart we also see a five wave move from the low on the 18th Sept followed by an a-b-c correction which this time goes to the 78.2% fib retracement before turning and again completing a small five wave pattern (not shown)

4872

So TA could argue that we have done correcting both long and medium term, we may still have another short term correction to go - I'd would consider this short term view negated by anything below 1291 but even below 1309 starts to look very doubtful.
Med term view would be negated by moving too much below 1250 and definitely at 1180.


I'm really just putting this out there as alternative to the TA view in the article Moosie posted and to make me crystallise this interpretation.


Discl. only trade gold occasionally at a very small level. I mainly look at gold as an indicator for silver which I hold both physical and virtual and as stated previously am a buyer on oversold dips.

[Daytr]

Nice one Peat, thanks for the input.
Moosie, like BC I'm a trader with a fundamental outlook on a stock but really as a proxy to the gold price.

[Skol]

An interview with Nouriel Roubini:

Tapering
Stronger dollar
China slowing
US equities looking good
Interest rates up
Commodity prices down

http://www.reuters.com/video/2013/09/25/the-commodity-supercycle-likely-over-rou?videoId=273907562

Adds up to lower gold.

[elZorro]

Cheers, thanks for that. I trade gold irregularily as well so interesting to see others are not seeing what I am!

Thanks for that peat. Could also argue Elliott Wave suggests the fall in PoG has only just begun, but it is also subjective, no? Plus, I do not have time right now to do so, but I see where you're heading! Cheers.

I think that's a new word there Moosie. What about this chart, a bit simpler, implying gold has nearly hit the lower rising trendline, and could easily improve from here.

http://www.ino.com/blog/2013/09/is-it-time-to-start-looking-at-gold/

[JBmurc]

Yes Gold moving on up,, will we finally see some direction or will this just be more sideways movement without a defined break
be great to see 1430+

--sounds like we have a few more traders round IMHO really only why to be these days esp in the resource/energy sectors ...you have a good profit TAKE IT as it seems 8 out of 10 times you can buy your shares back for close to what they were before announcement of discovery/deal etc only weeks later

[Bobcat.]

Higher lows over the past three days are encouraging:

Sept 24: 1308USD
Sept 25: 1318USD
Sept 26: 1321USD and now climbing.

[Daytr]

Disappointing close, after looking promising when nudging $1340 at one stage, although agree we are getting higher lows which is some encouragement. Still have a bias to the upside, although technically its probably 50:50 or 60:40 at beast that it goes higher. Fundamentally with the debt ceiling & Syria still on-going & physical buying seasons for India & China looming I still see a good Q4 for POG. Patience is a virtue they say. :p

[Skol]

There is an excellent article today in the NZ Herald business section on gold which tells the melancholy tale of the gold and silver mania of the last few years, 2 pages of it.

A few excerpts:

'The gigantic, decade long rally I don't think will be repeated, at least in my lifetime", says the president of Marketfield Asset Management which manages more then $13b.

"Capital can be deployed much more effectively in other enterprises that actually see a return."


"Unless fundamentals catch up we're due for a pullback in a lot of assets, and in gold in particular."

'Radio personalities promoted gold coins as protection against US deficits.'

'Amid the the frenzy, gold advocates made dramatic predictions that the precious metal would be the only way to protect wealth'.

Sound familiar?

Over-optimistic goldbugs should take the time to read it, plenty of examples of fortunes being derailed as the boom turned to inevitable bust.

Last 1 year XJO + 20% XGD -57%

Last 2 years XJO +30% XGD -63%

Last 5 years XJO +33.5% XGD -25%

Check out the invective on Hot copper gold threads as furious goldbugs, many of whom expected to be the nouveau riche by now, keep on losing money.

[Bobcat.]

The nay-sayers will go quiet next week. POG is finding good support, with consecutively higher lows over the past four days, which is not surprising given the momentum shift we saw 10 days ago :

Sept 24: 1308USD
Sept 25: 1318USD
Sept 26: 1321USD
Sept 27: 1335USD.

The short spike yesterday (late Friday morning GMT) was significant in that within two hours the POG rose from 1323 to 1343 with an earlier resistance of 1335 very easily broken. If we find new support at this level, with resistance at 1355 broken, that will confirm for me well enough that the bulls are prevailing....and I'll trade accordingly, encouraging others to do the same.

Surf's up Monday/Tuesday.

BC

[Daytr]

Yep seems to be building a nice base, hopefully a launching pad to surge through $1350. It will also be interesting to see if there is any reaction to the UN resolution on Syria.

[Skol]

An excerpt from an Economist article about the gold standard.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

The Depression was not, fundamentally, about the failure to understand the importance of demand and the way an economy could become stuck operating well below potential. It was about the tyranny of a bad idea: the gold standard. Or more honestly, it was about the set of institutions, cultural norms, and men who gave the idea its power.

There was an intellectual skeleton beneath the gold standard—and an era of prosperity on gold (the great period of globalisation from 1870 or so to 1914) to give the intellectual arguments teeth. Yet the extent of the devotion to the system, and the level of suffering governments were willing to impose on citizens on its behalf, goes well beyond the loyalty normally commanded by economic policy norms. Britain drove its economy into the muck in the 1920s trying to deflate enough to return to gold at the prewar parity. Governments suffering crippling levels of unemployment, bank runs, and social unrest squeezed their economies even harder with rising interest rates, simply to prevent a pile of gold in a vault from getting a bit smaller. In Germany the government of Chancellor Heinrich Brüning refused to expand the money supply even after effectively going off gold, in the process helping to bring the Weimar Republic to an end.

Britain and Germany were forced off gold for lack of reserves. America had reserves galore but let gold orthodoxy squeeze its economy anyway—until Franklin Roosevelt ignored the concerns of his more sober-minded advisers. Even given the example of how effective reflation was at boosting the real economy the old ideas maintained their power. The choice to sterilise new gold inflows in 1937 to rein in inflation sank the American economy back into recession. Hard money was sensible, serious, responsible. Gold was what the sober men of the age knew to be the bedrock of sustainable economic expansion. And they were all horribly wrong.


http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/09/great-crash-4

[Skol]

An article about herd behaviour and gold on MSN Money:

Lust: Chasing recent performance


The belief investors feel that recent performance will dictate future performance -- known as "recency bias" in psychology -- is one of the biggest investor pitfalls, experts say.

"People tend to buy something that has done really well recently," says Terrance Odean, a professor of finance at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. "They chase performance."

In the lead-up to the financial crisis, investors dived headlong into real-estate investments, convinced that rising housing prices would never falter. The latest example? Gold. The commodity went on a winning streak even before the financial crisis, and investors piled in.

A big factor was the heavy prominence gold suddenly received across the media -- on commercials, in financial publications, on television shows and in books. Mark Berg, president of Timothy Financial Counsel, a fee-only financial advisory firm in Wheaton, Ill., says one otherwise rational client wanted to move her entire portfolio into gold after reading a book warning of another market crash.

To combat this behavior, financial advisers say it is important that investors study historical prices and performance of the latest popular investments. Historical charts, for example, will show the rise and fall of any investment over time.

Instead of looking just at prices over the past few months or a couple of years, look at the long-term history over periods extending back at least 10 years -- and sometimes more. Gold, for example, had been increasing in price since 2001, but over the longer term has trailed stocks and barely kept pace with inflation.

Despite the multiyear frenzy, gold prices peaked in 2011 and are now trading about 26% below their record high.

Similarly, investor returns often lag those of the mutual funds they invest in, since many people buy funds only after their performance begins to overheat, then sell after the funds drop. As a result, the typical fund investor misses out on early gains and locks in the later losses -- ending up falling behind the fund itself.

The average annual return for U.S. stock mutual funds over the past 15 years was 6.6% -- while the average investor in those funds earned just 4.6%, according to investment research firm Morningstar.

While it is easier said than done, investors have to try not to pay attention to daily news reports and advertisements touting the latest popular investment.

[Skol]

The SPDR Gold stockpile continues to diminish, if punters thought it was a good bet it would have increased.

On July 31st it was 931 tons, now it's 905 tons.

Mark Twain said: "A gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing next to it."

[elZorro]

A pennant formation in gold, could go either way, but most likely upwards, with all the other stuff going on. Right Skol?

http://www.ino.com/blog/2013/09/gold-chart-of-the-week-52/

Colin James has an interesting article today, suits this thread.


Colin James's Otago Daily Times column for 1 October 2013

Finding the exit when there is no sign

In Australia the proportion of first-home buyers taking out mortgages is near a decade low and the proportion of rental investors near a decade high. Sound familiar?

Low interest rates in theory stimulate businesses to borrow, invest and make jobs. Money borrowed to buy houses does boost furnishing and appliance sales and some renovation and small business owners borrow against their houses for capital. But most mortgage borrowing doesn't directly do much for productive investment.

Central banks have plunged official interest rates to near-zero in northern hemisphere rich countries through the past six years, on top of which they have been printing money like medieval monarchs. There is a lot of it sloshing round the world.

But much of the money has gone into houses in those rich countries. Job growth has been weak and real wage rates have stagnated or fallen. So demand for goods and services has not responded as pre-2007 textbooks said it would.

And much of the printed money has gone global. To quote Albert Edwards of Societe Generale, a global bank, much of what the Federal Reserve has been flushing into the United States economy has gone into arbitrage, that is, borrowing cheaply and lending a bit less cheaply wherever higher interest rates or easy capital gain can be found.

So a lot went into "emerging" economies where interest rates were higher. The likes of India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa were awash with credit. Share markets boomed. GDP rose. That offset rich economies' weakness.

Then on May 22 Ben Bernanke, outgoing Federal Reserve chair, mused aloud that he might start "tapering" off his $US85 billion-a-month purchase of bonds (notably mortgage-backed ones). Interest on United States government debt rose sharply. The financial flows reversed out of the "emerging" economies, stalling their economies and plunging their currencies. The good news is that, as a result, several of those countries' governments now say they need to start structural economic reform.

But Bernanke took fright at the potential GDP-growth-constraining effect of rising market interest rates and didn't start the "taper" as expected on September 18. Since then several of his regional chairs have stated widely varying views on when he should start, ranging from soon to not for a long while. The financial markets are in a frenzied limbo.

Like George Bush swashbuckling into Afghanistan and Iraq, explorer Bernanke appears to have had no exit strategy when he headed into the uncharted territory of quantitative easing (QE), the euphemism for printing money. He did indicate an unemployment figure of 6.5 per cent as the exit signpost but that is a fair way off: the figure is now 7.3 per cent, mainly thanks to 4 million having given up looking for jobs, and is falling at a glacial pace.

This is a bother because what Bernanke does and doesn't do has global effects -- and not just in vulnerable "emerging" economies. Some of his money washes up here, swelling competition for houses. The New Zealand dollar is the tenth most traded currency in the world, by far the most per capita.

Graeme Wheeler down at the Reserve Bank has set out to restrain banks' enthusiasm for lending on houses by limiting how much of a bank's total mortgage loans can go to people who have less than a 20 per cent deposit. This has the politically discomforting effect for a grumpy Bill English of channelling funds away from the most needy, of putting housing development financing in doubt and possibly generating an unregulated secondary market of the type that flourished when interest rates were tightly regulated 35 years ago.

Wheeler has yet to spell out his exit strategy, if he has one. The risk is that, like Bernanke, delay follows delay and/or measure follows measure. The spectre is the cold turkey New Zealand went through in 1984 to escape the dysfunctional shambles in the money markets.

A much scarier spectre is that of the post-2007 global financial crisis (GFC). Edwards warned of a risk that "the most wobbly domino falls and topples the whole precarious, rotten, risk-loving edifice".

Such talk is no longer marginal. It is part of informed international commentary.

Financial Times columnist Gillian Tett drew on recent speeches by Lord Adair Turner, formerly head of Britain's bank regulator, the Financial Services Authority, and Andrew Haldane, financial stability executive director at the Bank of England, to suggest that "the propensity of the over-leveraged system to have booms and busts, amid investor swings, has risen".

For several decades rich economies have relied on ever-increasing levels of private debt to get their economic growth. Given that their growth rates have been limpid at best since the GFC, that suggests to Tett and others that the productivity of money has been falling.

In any case, debt cannot go on rising forever. The circus will stop.

At least houses are safe. Or are they? What's your exit strategy?
--
Colin James, Synapsis Ltd, P O Box 9494, Wellington 6141
Ph (64)-4-384 7030, Mobile (64)-21-438 434, Fax (64)-4-384 9175
Webpage http://www.ColinJames.co.nz

[Skol]

EZ,
Personally, I would say downwards, like last night. US Mint gold sales are tanking - big time. Last month only 8,500 1oz gold eagles were sold, the lowest for years. Compare that to 124,500 in january and 187,500 in April. Even gets a mention in Barron's.

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2013/09/30/gold-coin-buyers-wrapping-up-a-stingy-september/?mod=BOL_hpp_blog_fof

[Bobcat.]

Skol,

American gold eagle purchases account for well less than 1% of global gold purchases - hardly indicative. A better gauge is consumer patterns in India and China, which are more bullish and representative of market demand.

A breakthrough the downward trendline that is currently producing downward pressure at 1330USD would be bullish. If 1325USD is broken, however, that would confirm the bears are still in control...for now (short-lived in my view).

BC

[Skol]

This is a pretty good indication of where the gold price is headed, there's no salvation here. Goldbugs should gird their loins for more losses.

[Daytr]

The risk in regards the US debt ceiling is not that it won't be raised, it will at some political cost no doubt. The real risk is that the US is downgraded again following. Kicking the can down the road (an ali can made by Rio for a loss no doubt!) will not satisfy the likes of Moodys who have been hawks on the US debt. Downgrading the sovereign rating of the US simply makes their debt more expensive & makes the next debt ceiling level come along that much quicker. No wonder Bernanke didn't want to taper, he had already seen bond yields tick up dramatically, imagine where they would be with a downgrade attached. Pressure will also be on the other ratings houses to follow suit who have been lagging to date.

[Daytr]

Nice start to European trading, could be a good day tomorrow! Night all :t_up:

[JBmurc]

Nice start to European trading, could be a good day tomorrow! Night all :t_up:

I really think if we are going see a record moves in Gold/Silver it will be this month on the back of US woes ...$100-$200 etc see if I'm right come the end of Oct....But I also think a major Market drop could also happen >>interesting times

Some charts I took of Kitco

4882

[JBmurc]

FTSE off 0.2%, not really an implosion now is it? gold up a mere $2. the market is betting this is going to get solved quickly, and I don't blame them as it will.

on the gold front, I'm seeing a head and shoulders pattern has formed with an upward trading triangle formed with all MA's converging. both factors are bearish...

I know what your saying moose but if gold's going move it shaping up to be the time to do it Why--

-When the debt ceiling issue came up in 2011, an agreement was reached only in the last minute and gold hit an all-time high of $1,920 an ounce, in part because of the uncertainties surrounding a deal.,,(we are looking at the same 17th this month ...going off the latest dealing in the senate ,,,First shutdown in 17years thats 1996)

-We all were told the GOLD southward movement came about because of lower downside risks... better US economy numbers....i.e 99% of analyst were sure TAPER was going to happen It didn't and is unlikely .....(Fact is with all the money pumped into the system nothings really changed employment wise, Trillions in Q.E ,,DEBT limits reached in record time>>>

Everything we were told should move the PM isn't and hasn't been happening YET

[blackcap]

And Gold crashes this morning NZ time. What the heck is happening? Down to $1285 and no bottom in sight. US problems making people take flight from the yellow metal?

[blackcap]

Moosie, I don't know if you were replying to my veiled question but my post was meant to be taken satirically. not sure if I managed to convey that too well though. You are right though in saying that we are in a multi-year downtrend. Gold is weird and confusing but its a great short long term as it does not produce any income so I would rather be short gold than long.

[JBmurc]

Moosie, I don't know if you were replying to my veiled question but my post was meant to be taken satirically. not sure if I managed to convey that too well though. You are right though in saying that we are in a multi-year downtrend. Gold is weird and confusing but its a great short long term as it does not produce any income so I would rather be short gold than long.

Yeah all backwards if you ask me ...

Gold doesn't produce income but neither does many things ...but what it has done is kept it value for 5000 years back when shells or sticks were classed as money and will do for as long as the Earth keeps spinning ...

I wouldn't be surprised to see Negative rates under new FED Yellen ...losing money on your cash in the US banks

[Skol]

Could be the beginning of the next leg down to $1,000, wouldn't be the least surprised. Goldbugs have been picking that gold will go to the moon with the shutdown, but the opposite's the case, what will happen when things get back to normal?

[Daytr]

The market is trading completely irrationally in my opinion & its just not because I am long gold equities. If anyone can tell me last night's sell off made sense I think they should look to get a check up.

It appears to another buy the rumour, sell the fact scenario on the Government shut down & debt ceiling. The only issue is, is that not all the facts are in. The shut down itself will be temporary however may drag on longer than a few days that the market seems to think, again not really the key issue. The key issue is the mounting debt & lifting the debt ceiling & the most important consequence, being another credit downgrade for the US.

I found the attached video link quite interesting on why gold is behaving like it is & perhaps there is some truth to it. Skip to the last half if you don't want to listen to it all.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/expect-gold-to-break-through-2k-next-year-william-3F_0k3A2T72YxFDZ5390jA.html

The old line a market stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent comes to mind...

[Skol]

The old line a market stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent comes to mind...

The market isn't irrational in my opinion Daytr, gold's got years of inflation already built into it and it's got a long way south to go yet to where it's 'rational'.

[JBmurc]

The Whole lot is completely Irrational

I can't understand how Obama can get away with so much of his bollocks you never see the media pull him up on anything he stated in the past ,,,He's the fkn Teflon man ...

-Past Obama--
"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can't pay its own bills," Obama said before a March 16, 2006, vote on raising the debt limit. The Senate narrowly approved raising the limit along partisan lines, 52-48, with all Democrats opposed.(funny now it's the dead opposite)

-Obama emphasized issues of rapidly ending the Iraq War--(was only recently pushing to attack Syria only stopped thanks to being voted down in the U.K with Cameron also Pro-attack ....Obama lost support )

2009 "WE can't keep running deficits ,we will cut the Deficits in Half" OBAMA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lll3lFjZ8Pw

I just watched the Obama puppet yesterday ...."We need to keep are Military #1 in the World if it means raising the debt level so be it"


http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2013/09/29/if-republicans-want-to-shut-down-washington-theyll-have-to-ask-chinas-permission-first/
Although China, Japan, and other major creditor nations have no dog in the Obamacare fight, they have a strong interest in preserving America’s basic financial, economic, and social stability. From their point of view, the Tea Party contingent is not following the script and a corrective may be necessary.
If the creditor nations were to sell just a small proportion of their American assets, they could send Wall Street into a tailspin, with unpleasant implications for the net worth of many Republicans.


could add doz's more examples ...

[JBmurc]

And The DOW goes UP ?? WTF

Quoted in Bloomberg, consulting firm IHS Inc. estimates that the initial effect of the shutdown is at least $US300 million ($321.9 million) a day, but that figure will increase at an accelerating rate if confidence and spending is further depressed. According to IHS, a week-long shutdown would clip 0.2 percentage points (annualised) from fourth quarter GDP growth. Anything longer than that will obviously have a far greater negative effect on the economy.

[Bobcat.]

One explanation could be computerised trading searching for a double bottom. Strong support at 1271 (see the graph below) has almost been tested a second time. Perhaps the fact that today's bottom was 7 points above that low is a positive sign. I'm not spinning, just looking to better understand the technical analysis (timing is just as important as determining fundamental improvement in the Gold digger stocks I'm now holding).

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-10-01/template_jimw.htm#gold2


Daytr - I've averaged down on GOR today, and not just cause I respect your commitment to this company. I like what I see in this stock and FP's analysis published today has confirmed a Hold recommendation. I would say it's very little risk to buy more of this stock anywhere around 7c -- it has some nice upside.

I've also come in on OGC. Technically there is good support at 1.75NZD (1.50AUD). Fundamentally sound and (from what I can tell) reasonably well managed.

I'm expecting both to lift tomorrow. As to what constitutes 'fair value' for any gold and/or silver digger, that's an elusive concept. Value is heavily driven by the market PoG.

BC

[JBmurc]

Yes also a new OGC shareholder.... going from their latest presentation OGC all-in costs round $1000oz US producing round 300koz p.a + 14kt copper with plans to reduce costs using lower energy costs / increasing plant output >>>

[Daytr]

Hi BC, I would have liked to have done the same, but am heavily weighted on GOR already so had to leave the position as is. I am a bit out of date on OGC, I met with them around 18 months ago & I must admit I wasn't overly impressed with them. I had a lot to do with the NZ assets over the years when it was 40% owned by Churchill capital. They were a smart bunch but did run into trouble a bit with a large hedge book (closed out years ago). The NZ assets always seemed like difficult mines to run. Not bagging them just not a big fan.

[JBmurc]

Hi BC, I would have liked to have done the same, but am heavily weighted on GOR already so had to leave the position as is. I am a bit out of date on OGC, I met with them around 18 months ago & I must admit I wasn't overly impressed with them. I had a lot to do with the NZ assets over the years when it was 40% owned by Churchill capital. They were a smart bunch but did run into trouble a bit with a large hedge book (closed out years ago). The NZ assets always seemed like difficult mines to run. Not bagging them just not a big fan.


the NZ assets mainly Macraes is low grade 1g/t but OGC do very well with Avg Industry All-in Cost across the three NZ mines when you think how expensive it is here to run a business in NZ

OGC growth will continue IMHO just look at the numbers from their latest Didipio project all in costs.... -$10-$290oz (net cu credits)

We get a good kick in the gold price OGC 300koz+Cu production metric's will add some serious free-cash flows many Gold producers only dream about

[McGyro]

Anyone care to explain why the US government shutdown is claimed to be the cause of the latest drop in gold price and gold mining stocks? Thanks.

[Halebop]

Anyone care to explain why the US government shutdown is claimed to be the cause of the latest drop in gold price and gold mining stocks? Thanks.

Probably for the same reason that if gold rose the US Government shutdown would have got the credit; nobody knows but everyone wants a reason.