View Full Version : Gold
Lego_Man
27-04-2010, 11:52 AM
But why would they deliver the gold to me? I'm just buying a share like I would in any share on the market. If telecom went bust they wouldn't send me a desk chair from their office.
Well if there was nuclear war then my ETF dollar amount in $NZD would be just as much as your physical gold in $NZD.
Can you please clarify in SIMPLE words and your way of thinking? I'm very confused. Thanks.
Ok, ive got 1,000 ounces of gold.
I run a backyard ETF OTC scheme. Send me a cheque for 1 million dollars and i will send you a piece of paper that says i owe you the gold.
Sound like a good deal?
Ahh right. I see now. Thanks for clarifying that.
How come the ETF wouldn't own all the gold. ie. If they issued $1,000,000 shares at $1 each. They would have $1,000,000 dollars. They buy $1,000,000 of gold.
Why would they not hold $1,000,000 of gold and why would they ever need to sell it? Aren't the buyers on the stock exhcange just buying off each other? They don't need to pay out dividends or anything and their management fee (I think it's 0.4% p/a) should cover the security, rent, electricity, wages, etc of the staff where they hold it.
whatsup
27-04-2010, 12:05 PM
Ahh right. I see now. Thanks for clarifying that.
How come the ETF wouldn't own all the gold. ie. If they issued $1,000,000 shares at $1 each. They would have $1,000,000 dollars. They buy $1,000,000 of gold.
Why would they not hold $1,000,000 of gold and why would they ever need to sell it? Aren't the buyers on the stock exhcange just buying off each other? They don't need to pay out dividends or anything and their management fee (I think it's 0.4% p/a) should cover the security, rent, electricity, wages, etc of the staff where they hold it.
Guys all good points, In the 1980's Ray Smith I think ran a outfit called Goldcorp that sold lots of "investors" the same amount of gold on condition that he stored it in safe keeping for them, only problem was dozens and dozens of people bought the same piece of gold!!!
Lego_Man
27-04-2010, 12:14 PM
Ahh right. I see now. Thanks for clarifying that.
How come the ETF wouldn't own all the gold. ie. If they issued $1,000,000 shares at $1 each. They would have $1,000,000 dollars. They buy $1,000,000 of gold.
Why would they not hold $1,000,000 of gold and why would they ever need to sell it? Aren't the buyers on the stock exhcange just buying off each other? They don't need to pay out dividends or anything and their management fee (I think it's 0.4% p/a) should cover the security, rent, electricity, wages, etc of the staff where they hold it.
In theory yes they do own the gold.
But you should always factor in the possibility of fraud or "run on the ETF". You dont know if they are running leverage or what - it is regulated but you never know.
And as for the nuclear war comment, most people see gold as a safe haven asset. From that point of view you want to be able to stash it under the bed. Redeeming your gold ETF would be impossible in a nuclear war because all the xchanges would be piles of rubble. But your gold in the closet would still be there.
Why wouldn't they own the same amount of gold in $ terms as the amount of shares that they issued?
Where did the rest of the money go. And how sure are you that this is what is happening with the ASX commodity ETF's?
So if you buy physical gold and you want to get out of the market quickly. Who do you sell it to? Are there gauranteed buyers to get out of the market quickly.
This is the only benefit of the ETF that I'm afraid physically holding it doesn't have.
Also is there any real difference in 1kg bars or small coins other than in terms of weight/price.
Hey ENP
You're wasting your time trying to fathom the dudes who horde gold or silver. I've never worked it out. Gold has no intrinsic value, it costs to store it, it can be stolen, burned, there's no interest on it and you can't eat it.
In the event of some catastrophe no one would want it anyway, the items of value then would be things you could use like cows, sheep, petrol, clothing etc., things that would be useful.
I'm just trying to get educated on these things as I like to know.
I've just been doing some research and it seems there isn't any real places to both buy and sell apart from trade me/sella and some mints that have rip off prices.
There are various ways to own physical gold but lots of people seem to like coins. Depending on the actual type of coin there is a premium you have pay, but you're right there's no liquidity and to sell it you can put it on Trademe and let people know you've got it or sell it through a dealer which means getting in the car and driving there.
Selling through a dealer. So when you go there, they have no choice but to buy it or can they turn you down?
And they must take their commission on top of it when you sell it, i.e. you won't get the spot price will you?
Hey JB,
Just watching a TA guy on CNBC says gold weakness is on the cards and is going to retest lows, around $1045. I can taste that red wine already.
JBmurc
27-04-2010, 03:34 PM
Hey JB,
Just watching a TA guy on CNBC says gold weakness is on the cards and is going to retest lows, around $1045. I can taste that red wine already.
LOL it a long way yet where not even half-way I see you've been on HC Skol getting more friends on Gold
As for holding it personal I wouldn't hold gold bullion not that I don't like it just silver bullion is so much better and has such a bigger future
there are more patents registered worldwide each year for new uses of silver than for all other metals combined
Silver is the future metal man-kind will need more an more of yet it's going the first major metal element to be total used up land based reserves
Yea but who do you sell it to when you want to get rid of it?
JBmurc
27-04-2010, 07:15 PM
Yea but who do you sell it to when you want to get rid of it?
I've only sold a 1kg an some smaller amounts on trade-me got the going rate at the time as Trade-me is NZ current free market place for Bullion you should check it out
As for larger sales most of the major sellers also buy of course not expect to get much better than spot price to 10% below it all depend on demand I'm believe the demand esp in silver will make it easy to sell many years into the future as worldwide demand outstrips production by round 200moz per ann.
JBmurc
28-04-2010, 10:48 AM
Hey JB,
Just watching a TA guy on CNBC says gold weakness is on the cards and is going to retest lows, around $1045. I can taste that red wine already.
An i guess the same guys where saying the DOW was going to have no major corrections in the short term-- DOW down 1.9% S&P500 down 2.34% GOLD-Up $1167oz gold in AUD up even more...........LOL looking forward to drinking your bootle of Meot
drillfix
28-04-2010, 11:36 AM
An i guess the same guys where saying the DOW was going to have no major corrections in the short term-- DOW down 1.9% S&P500 down 2.34% GOLD-Up $1167oz gold in AUD up even more...........LOL looking forward to drinking your bootle of Meot
Would be a good time for NAV to pull some more news out of the bag, dont ya think JB :P
JBmurc
28-04-2010, 01:44 PM
Would be a good time for NAV to pull some more news out of the bag, dont ya think JB :P
yeah for sure wouldn't be surprised if we had some soon
What other ways are there to prodtect against inflation/hyper inflation/weakening dollar other than gold/silver?
I can't exactly put barrells of oil or tanks of natural gas under my bed.
Would be a good time for NAV to pull some more news out of the bag, dont ya think JB :P
Keep on hoping. Gold's going up (at the moment) but NAV's going down. Phaedra was onto it.
An increasing amount of punters chasing a finite amount of gold.
drillfix
28-04-2010, 05:35 PM
Keep on hoping. Gold's going up (at the moment) but NAV's going down. Phaedra was onto it.
An increasing amount of punters chasing a finite amount of gold.
Ok there Mr.Airplane man, now off you go and continue your playground battles with Tricha :P
Ok there Mr.Airplane man, now off you go and continue your playground battles with Tricha :P
Time to unload those losing NAV's and buy VBA.
trackers
28-04-2010, 05:56 PM
Time to unload those losing NAV's and buy VBA.
Only you skol... only you could talk about not holding any airline stocks then a couple days later start bragging about how one airline stock is rising... VBA back to where it began the year, and significantly less than where it was just one month ago... Who cares mate
Only you skol... only you could talk about not holding any airline stocks then a couple days later start bragging about how one airline stock is rising... VBA back to where it began the year, and significantly less than where it was just one month ago... Who cares mate
I bought VBA a couple of days ago. Have cash because the market's too high. AIR's a good one too by the way. LOL
If you have a look at tricha's blow up in your face airline thread you will see quite clearly that I sold VBA and intended to buy them back when the price dropped.
But this is the gold thread, right?
drillfix
28-04-2010, 06:23 PM
Time to unload those losing NAV's and buy VBA.
No Skol, but tell you what, Ive already a small position in NAV though VBA sure did have a nice bounce off support and does seem set to run so I think I may just take you up on that one Skol, lets see how global markets pan out though and what tormorrow brings.
Actually, on my 5 minute Intraday its showing convergence of the MA's and should they present favourably tomorrow then I could very well be a holder. (ps: for maybe an hour? lol)
Till then~!
STRAT
28-04-2010, 06:39 PM
Because in an SHTF scenario, your ETF's may be worthless.
But if you've got the metal in your hand, youve got power.Dunno about that Lego. I reckon all you have is talking piece for the mantle or the makings of some very pretty fishing sinkers.
One can hardly carry it around any more than one can shave off a slither to buy some milk and fags.
One would be far better off with a back yard full of Veg, a safe full of guns and a water tank full of gasoline if the **** really did hit the fan.
JBmurc
28-04-2010, 07:27 PM
Dunno about that Lego. I reckon all you have is talking piece for the mantle or the makings of some very pretty fishing sinkers.
One can hardly carry it around any more than one can shave off a slither to buy some milk and fags.
One would be far better off with a back yard full of Veg, a safe full of guns and a water tank full of gasoline if the **** really did hit the fan.
Its all about being diverse for some reason some people think cause you can't eat it ,burn it etc it will become worthless wake-up an stop repeating the same anti-PGM rubbish !!!
do some history study has their been any time in the history of modern man than gold has been worthless ,Dark ages,fall of rome,wars
It hasn't been accepted for a medium of exchange an a great store of wealth for thousands of years if it didn't have value
I'll be more than happy if someone out their will give me silver or gold bullion for my vegies LOL I'm planning on making a very large produce garden for next summer -----If the world did fall into some kind of doomsday anti paper exchange any item will be barted ,food,land,services etc
Gold silver etc would take head place in many exchanges for the many reasons stated
JBmurc
28-04-2010, 08:11 PM
Faber comments:
"Gold is holding steady as we write, around $1,137. If someone is rich, they should buy a ton every month, Faber says." Paper money (will go) down relative to precious metals. So in that environment, I think you... should all accumulate some gold."
Fabers outlook for the paper money known as the dollar goes like this: As far as the eye can see, interest rates under Bernanke will stay at zero and below." Below? He points to the new Fed vice chairwoman, "Janet Yellen, another totally ignorant economist removed from any reality, said herself six months ago, if I could implement interest rates below zero, I would do it. So now you know what the policy in the U.S. will be.
Faber also has a few things to say about the relentless swirl of rumors about how shadowy powers are suppressing the gold price. Namely, that if the rumors are true, thats just one more argument to accumulate metal.
"If you have manipulation to keep the price down, it eventually goes ballistic. So all the people that are bitching about the manipulation of silver and gold should be happy that it is manipulated, because it still gives them an opportunity to buy it at a depressed price.
STRAT
28-04-2010, 08:14 PM
Its all about being diverse for some reason some people think cause you can't eat it ,burn it etc it will become worthless wake-up an stop repenting the same anti-PGM rubbish !!!
do some history study has their been any time in the history of modern man than gold has been worthless ,Dark ages,fall of rome,wars
It hasn't been accepted for a medium of exchange an a great store of wealth for thousands of years if it didn't have value
I'll be more than happy if someone out their will give me silver or gold bullion for my vegies LOL I'm planning on making a very large produce garden for next summer -----If the world did fall into some kind of doomsday anti paper exchange any item will be barted ,food,land,services etc
Gold silver etc would take head place in many exchanges for the many reasons statedGeeze JB. I promise to never repent again. :D
Thats pretty condecending and agressive. Why do some here become aggravated when confronted with a 2nd opinion. Theres really no need for it nor is there any need for all the heart and ego on sleeve stuff.
It was a passing flippant comment not a personal attack.
JBmurc
28-04-2010, 08:43 PM
Geeze JB. I promise to never repent again. :D
Thats pretty condecending and agressive. Why do some here become aggravated when confronted with a 2nd opinion. Theres really no need for it nor is there any need for all the heart and ego on sleeve stuff.
It was a passing flippant comment not a personal attack.
nor should you see it as a personal attack Strat the majority of people of the western world would agree with you without any facts too back their view..thats what drives me nuts I've read the same comment a hundred times its like old wifes tale that one reads an takes for fact------If the world's currency's exchanges lost all value real gold & silver would be worthless medium of exchange---
If that was the case it would be the first time in modern man history it did.
trackers
29-04-2010, 07:33 AM
Gold up $8 to a 2010 high of $1,170....
I know that the USA has been essentially creating money out of thin air but has the NZ government too?
Zimbabwe had hyper inflation in recent years but that didn't cause our paper money to become worthless however. With 6 month TD's at 5% it's not a bad deal.
Look forward to your thoughts.
ENP
Gold is up but_ _ _
Bernanke says interest rates will stay low for an extended period;
The XGD is level pegging;
The USD is up;
No hyperinflation;
So why is gold going up?
Lots of gullible punters chasing a finite amount of gold-thats why.
I was reading in the WSJ this morning that some big investment houses are parking cash in gold at the moment.
Has it occurred to you guys that they might be pushing gold higher then drop it like a hot brick?
Lego_Man
29-04-2010, 10:36 AM
Dunno about that Lego. I reckon all you have is talking piece for the mantle or the makings of some very pretty fishing sinkers.
One can hardly carry it around any more than one can shave off a slither to buy some milk and fags.
One would be far better off with a back yard full of Veg, a safe full of guns and a water tank full of gasoline if the **** really did hit the fan.
Well, i've got one out of the last 3 things you mention. But not really for apocalyptic reasons.
Why did the gold price essentially not change in value from 1982-2003?
That's 21 years and the price was roughly the same. Over that 20 years, how much did inflation change? How much more money did the Federal Reserve/USA print?
I don't understand why the gold price has jumped so much since 2003 because there was inflation between 1982 and 2003 not just the last 7 years.
Explain please.
Why did the gold price essentially not change in value from 1982-2003?
That's 21 years and the price was roughly the same. Over that 20 years, how much did inflation change? How much more money did the Federal Reserve/USA print?
I don't understand why the gold price has jumped so much since 2003 because there was inflation between 1982 and 2003 not just the last 7 years.
Explain please.
It's a bit like the '87 sharemarket crash, once bitten twice shy. So many suckers got their fingers burnt in the 1980 gold crash that it has taken 30 years for a new breed of suckers to buy the hyperinflation/worthless USD story.
JB Murc will have another explanation though.
JBmurc
29-04-2010, 12:22 PM
It's a bit like the '87 sharemarket crash, once bitten twice shy. So many suckers got their fingers burnt in the 1980 gold crash that it has taken 30 years for a new breed of suckers to buy the hyperinflation/worthless USD story.
JB Murc will have another explanation though.
I really can't be bothered atm I'll let the market do the talking posted doz's reason why its going higher already
drillfix
29-04-2010, 12:37 PM
Why did the gold price essentially not change in value from 1982-2003?
Everybody has a theory ENP.
Here is mine, basically its a combination of psychology and definition of real and surreal.
You see, back then in the time of the "enter the computer main stage" things were alot more simple, honest (compared to these days) and a company seemed to be a company.
These days, or building up to these day, Gold is something that "still" remains real, it was real before, it was real not so long ago, and it is very real now.
As the world seems to replace a new technological phone or computer, TV, whatever consumable every 3 months, it has to continually compete and have prices reflect the time of life of that product. As in to make it, sell it fast and then super-seed it, or its a loser. The market, people and the psychology gets thrown into the waiste paper basket.
Now Gold on the other hand IMO demonstrates that it has put an emphasis on psychology to worth, value, something that will last and wont just go away.
With regards to the price of it, well the cost of getting it becomes more, in line with a current world psychology, IMO
I had a punch line in my head to finish on but since I have written the above, I have forgotten it...LOL
Anyway, if I remember I will edit this, but thats just another one of the million theories out there. :P
upside_umop
29-04-2010, 01:35 PM
Expected inflation
Its all about expected inflation, isnt it?
Inflation was overpredicted in 1980 (as evidenced by gold price staying flat for so long). Now, people think inflation will return with a vengence. Whether it will or not is upto the individuals opinions. Gold is believed to be a store of value, therefore should move with relative pricing of goods, ie inflation.
Productive use?
Gold may have been worth something back in the day, but its productive use is very limited. (One productive thing I can think of is:Didnt they use gold as a core for Hiroshima bomb?) But because its not overly productive, and just a 'believe,' I believe we will slowly move away from gold, as evidenced by its peak back in 1500's and never really recovering.
Gold standard vs Current Monetary system
A memorable quote that I heard, here on sharetrader I think was "why would you want the money supply controlled by geological factors?"
Thats basically what would happen if we were to bring gold in as the standard. The current monetary system is much better than the gold standard for this reason alone. The only thing holding back the monetary system we have now is its inequality thats it created...it needs a framework that doesnt provide distortions. Distortions are evident given the rapid rise in debt and the passing on of this debt to the next generation (along with plenty more, but to me this is a main concern).
A few other things to consider are:
-Markets are highly inefficient in the short term (momentum effect, herd mentality etc)
-Markets are highly efficient in the long term (mean reversion to fundamentals etc)
Only you skol... only you could talk about not holding any airline stocks then a couple days later start bragging about how one airline stock is rising... VBA back to where it began the year, and significantly less than where it was just one month ago... Who cares mate
Still got the NAVs trackers?
Where I am at the moment there's an ad on TV that should help you out.
If you call 1-800-296-1428 there's a prayer for you. in addition there's some miracle spring water and an annointed faith tool. (whatever that is)
Wonderful things happen apparently, gets people out of debt, money turns up in the mail etc.
gold is breaking out on the upside - the bubble continues.... even George Soros said if you see a bubble buy it.
JBmurc
29-04-2010, 11:09 PM
gold is breaking out on the upside - the bubble continues.... even George Soros said if you see a bubble buy it.
It's got a few years to run yet IMHO funny how the most negative towards gold silver have been saying the same thing over an over again an will continue too while Gold increasing further reminds me of when OIL when through $40bbl so many investors said it was in a bubble an no way could it go any higher as the world markets would crash an burn now it's $80bbl+ an no one really cares an in fact oil producers need it that high to make enough profits for the increasing exploration bills same will happen to gold at $2000oz yet I do think it will spike higher for a time
trackers
30-04-2010, 09:00 AM
Still got the NAVs trackers?
Where I am at the moment there's an ad on TV that should help you out.
If you call 1-800-296-1428 there's a prayer for you. in addition there's some miracle spring water and an annointed faith tool. (whatever that is)
Wonderful things happen apparently, gets people out of debt, money turns up in the mail etc.
Sure do Skol, they hold assets and are about to generate revenues well in excess of their market cap, which is always a good thing (regardless of what they actually produce) - Not sure why you've sent me some religious advice, you should know by now that I operate on fact/evidence only
Hi,
Can someone explain to me why gold/silver prices crashed about 30-50% in 2008? That's in USD.
Im understand why in NZD it crashed in 2009 due to the exchange rate of the USD being very strong in early 2009 but not sure why the USD crash in 2008?
Thanks.
ENP
everyone was deleveraging , so all assets get sold. in some ways gold but especially silver operate like other assets or commodities. yes gold has an air of quality that can make it rise during a flight to safety fearful period but when debt must be repaid gold can be sold like any other security. silver seems to operate even more than gold as as an industrial commodity in that if the economy shrinks less of it will be used so the price falls.
in that sense there is some correlation between the precious metals and the stock markets.
ENP
everyone was deleveraging , so all assets get sold. in some ways gold but especially silver operate like other assets or commodities. yes gold has an air of quality that can make it rise during a flight to safety fearful period but when debt must be repaid gold can be sold like any other security. silver seems to operate even more than gold as as an industrial commodity in that if the economy shrinks less of it will be used so the price falls.
in that sense there is some correlation between the precious metals and the stock markets.
Oh ok. Thanks.
So much for it being a "safe haven" when the stock market is going down then? Guess it goes back to what I've read before that If you have $10,000 of gold coins and you need to put food on your families table because you lost your job, the gold has to go doesn't it?
gold is breaking out on the upside - the bubble continues.... even George Soros said if you see a bubble buy it.
up $10 an oz in the 25 hrs since i posted.
it was amazing how slow silver was to follow but follow it did - up 50c oz in the same period.
up $10 an oz in the 25 hrs since i posted.
it was amazing how slow silver was to follow but follow it did - up 50c oz in the same period.
Gold up but XGD down.
Why's that?
The smart money on the way out.
tricha
02-05-2010, 09:52 PM
Gold up but XGD down.
Why's that?
The smart money on the way out.
U r so right Skol money is on the way out, actually being a gambling man, I bought back into a gold stock last week.
I based it on the concept everything is not right in the world and it's a little like life insurance, except if it happens, you might get to enjoy the windfill. Then I read this and it reinforces it, gold might >>>>>
How Gold Could Climb to $6,500/oz
By Greg McCoach | Thursday, April 29th, 2010
As I travel around to different parts of the world, one of the questions I keep hearing lately and with a sense of urgency is this:
What should I do with my money?
It seems a new block of investors has suddenly realized — and are worried — that they could lose purchasing power of their savings by keeping their money in banks or having invested in T-bills offering zero or negative return.
And it seems the options for investors in a world fiat currency nightmare are diminishing quickly; one can hear the concern in their voices.
Where can one turn for safety? they ask, knowing little or nothing related to the history of fiat currencies...
Huang Chung
02-05-2010, 10:06 PM
I bought back into a gold stock last week.
Which goldie T?
I bought back into a gold stock last week.
Which goldie T?
Yeah which one is it tricha? Must be the only that's not imploding at the moment.
shasta
03-05-2010, 02:44 PM
Yeah which one is it tricha? Must be the only that's not imploding at the moment.
Short Covering and Momentum Funds Push Gold Higher
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20100422D2.html
Interesting article, precious metals spot prices on the rise too
tricha
03-05-2010, 10:54 PM
I bought back into a gold stock last week.
Which goldie T?
It was my old favourite FML, it had a pretty good quarter on top of commissioning 3 mile hill, it's not for the faint hearted though, pure gambling stock. If gold goes off it will do very well, but lets face it the gold buffs have been calling a big rise for ten years now, but with Greece into junk status, it might be contagious ????????? and then it will happen.
JBmurc
04-05-2010, 10:55 AM
It was my old favourite FML, it had a pretty good quarter on top of commissioning 3 mile hill, it's not for the faint hearted though, pure gambling stock. If gold goes off it will do very well, but lets face it the gold buffs have been calling a big rise for ten years now, but with Greece into junk status, it might be contagious ????????? and then it will happen.
An over those 10yrs gold has increased nicely 1183.50 atm
JB,
Looks like the Greek mess is sorted out, what now?
Goldbugs will be bitterly disappointed that Greece hasn't descended into anarchy and spreading all over Europe.
I just finished reading the Mike Maloney "Investing in Gold and Silver" book. I thought it was a really good book.
However....
He says that when one bubble is forming, just move to the next? My question is, how to do you know when you are in a bubble?
JB,
We need to lighten up a bit so I thought for a laugh we could list a few of the conspiracy theories about why gold is being manipulated downwards.
I'll go first then maybe you could tell us your one about the video camera being switched off then someone being run over by a car.
I think my favourite is that the Reserve Bank of Australia is manipulating the price. This is because Dwight Eisenhower told Sir Robert Menzies in 1959 to toe the line and do what the Federal Reserve said. The current Governor Glenn Stevens is unflatteringly referred to as the bald headed traitor because he was trained by the Fed and is carrying out their instructions.
OK, your turn.
Mike Maloney says that gold will reach $15,000 an ounce $USD
That seems a bit of a long shot I would have thought?
Mike Maloney says that gold will reach $15,000 an ounce $USD
That seems a bit of a long shot I would have thought?
Not at all, I've seen a post where a million dollars an ounce is possible apparently. Some goldbugs get quite angry if you cast doubt on their instant riches.
POSSUM THE CAT
04-05-2010, 06:56 PM
Skol it is well over a million dollars an ounce in Zimbabwean dollars
JBmurc
04-05-2010, 07:14 PM
Not at all, I've seen a post where a million dollars an ounce is possible apparently. Some goldbugs get quite angry if you cast doubt on their instant riches.
now thats overboard I'm in the $2000oz within the next couple year camp longer term $3000+
but your in the mass deflation camp which means you believe gold will go down to $450oz etc which would mean central banks worldwide would increase rates 10%+ An withdraw the easy bailout free money thats been created faster that any other time in fiat history
Oil would have to fall to sub $40bbl Or maybe someone that really has a huge amount of real gold would let the market know well before putting up for sell so the buyers can short the paper market down an pick up the gold cheap like what the drop kick flash Gordan Brown did
Or maybe a mass human extinction -WW3 Nuclear holocast -blackdeath etc etc
I dont get how we can have inflation if consumers aren't spending money but saving it and unemployment is still rising?
Why are the stock markets going up still when businesses aren't making much more money than in 2008 and unemployment and consumer spending aren't looking too flash. All the fundamentals are looking bad whilst all the markets are looking good...
I dont get how we can have inflation if consumers aren't spending money but saving it and unemployment is still rising?
Why are the stock markets going up still when businesses aren't making much more money than in 2008 and unemployment and consumer spending aren't looking too flash. All the fundamentals are looking bad whilst all the markets are looking good...
You'll have to direct a question like that to Upside Umop who knows about that, but remember the markets are trying to predict what's going to happen in the future and there have been some quite good earnings out in the USA recently.
JBmurc
05-05-2010, 08:13 AM
Gold making new short term highs in AUD 1290 talk round the USD gaining even more back on the AUD new producers like NAV with high start up costs per oz of $800oz AUD still be looking at a tidy $490oz-------- EBIT of $49mill june 2010-2011
JB,
Gold is down in USD the XGD is really tanking and USD is way up.
Tell me why, when in times of crisis everyone goes for USD. Why isn't gold the flavour of the day right now?
Tim Geithner was right, everyone still goes for the USD despite the goldbugs saying it's doomed.
Oil went up 8 times in 8 years and then the inevitable happened. Down 81%.
Till the next day the USD is in huge trouble it's not if but when it falls to new all time lows an in time to 0
You still believe that JB?
There's one thing I've noticed recently, goldbugs love to go quote ancient history. Why is that?
JBmurc
05-05-2010, 10:05 AM
JB,
Gold is down in USD the XGD is really tanking and USD is way up.
Tell me why, when in times of crisis everyone goes for USD. Why isn't gold the flavor of the day right now?
Tim Geithner was right, everyone still goes for the USD despite the goldbugs saying it's doomed.
flavor
Oil went up 8 times in 8 years and then the inevitable happened. Down 81%.
yep then oil went back up as producers where stopping exploration an demand increased prices went up an will continue to go up with inflation
The USD attached debt is only going one way how can any smart economist see the hugely increasing USD debt levels as a positive step longer term
If interest rates go back to some kind of sane level the US will be paying 1 trillion just in interest per year on the massive debt.
USD is (a) where debt is centred and so it must be bought to pay off those debts (deleveraging)
and (b) the reserve currency of the world and
(c) militarily, the US is the strongest country by far , controls all the shipping lanes , the continent of North America is impregnable
so thats why its the safe haven, and especially when the EU seems to be imploding...
ENP here is a graph of a bubble
trackers
05-05-2010, 10:58 AM
USD is (a) where debt is centred and so it must be bought to pay off those debts (deleveraging)
and (b) the reserve currency of the world and
(c) militarily, the US is the strongest country by far , controls all the shipping lanes , the continent of North America is impregnable
so thats why its the safe haven, and especially when the EU seems to be imploding...
ENP here is a graph of a bubble
Where do you think we are now on that graph? Bull trap? Fear?
Conspiracy theory #2.
Every time gold goes up the Federal Reserve contacts the world major major banks and instructs them to short gold.
Only problem with this wacko theory is that unless physical gold is actually sold it will have nil effect on the POG.
not really sure myself.... it could be still in the mania phase or the bull trap - compare and make your own call....
I got out of my speculative gold longs quite quickly as trading gold is scary to my money management rules but still hold some silver for the long term but have an acceptance of high volatility (possible low prices) with that.
People I listen to (Global Gann Financial) remain bullish on gold but EWI (Prechter using Elliot Wave) spotted an ending diagonal triangle formation (bearish)
airedale
05-05-2010, 11:14 AM
News
April 29, 2010
Why Are Silver Sales Soaring?
Jeff Clark, Senior Editor, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report
The U.S. Mint just reported another record, but this time it wasn’t for gold. The Mint sold more Silver Eagles in March and in the first quarter of the year than ever before. A total of 9,023,500 American Silver Eagles were purchased in Q110, the highest amount since the coin debuted in 1986.
While this is certainly bullish, there’s something potentially more potent developing in the background. Namely, how this matches up with U.S. silver production. Like gold, the U.S. Mint only manufactures Eagles from domestic production. And U.S. mine production for silver is about 40 million ounces. In other words, we just reached the point where virtually all U.S. silver production is going toward the manufacturing of Silver Eagles.
Yikes.
This is especially explosive when you consider that roughly 40 per cent of all silver is used for industrial applications, 30 per cent for jewelry, 20 per cent for photography and other uses, and only five per cent or so for coins and medals.
To be sure, mine production is not the only source of silver. In 2009, approximately 52.9 million ounces were recovered from various sources of scrap. Further, the U.S. imported a net of about 112.5 million ounces last year. (Dependence on foreign oil? How about dependence on foreign silver!) So it’s not like there’s a worry there won’t be enough silver to produce the Eagle you want next month.
Still, why so much buying? The silver price ended the first quarter up 15.5 per cent from its February 4th low – but it was basically flat for the quarter overall, up a measly 1.9 per cent. We tend to see buyers clamoring for product when the price takes off, so the jump in demand wasn’t due to screaming headlines about soaring prices.
I have a theory.
For some time, silver has been known as the “poor man’s gold.” Meaning, silver demand tends to increase when gold gets too “expensive.” The gold price has stubbornly stayed above US$1,000 for over six months now and has spent much of that time above US$1,100. You’d be lucky to pay less than US$1,200 right now for a one-ounce coin (after premiums), an amount most workers can’t pluck out of their back pocket. But Joe Sixpack just might grab a “twelve-pack” of silver.
What would perhaps lend evidence to my theory would be if gold sales were down in the face of these higher silver sales.
Sure enough, the U.S. Mint reported a decline in Gold Bullion (http://www.minesite.com/nc/minews/singlenews/article/why-are-silver-sales-soaring/companies/comp_single/company/gold-bullion-development-corp.html) sales of 20.8 per cent this past quarter as against the same quarter in 2009. Further, other world mints have seen sharp declines in Gold Bullion (http://www.minesite.com/nc/minews/singlenews/article/why-are-silver-sales-soaring/companies/comp_single/company/gold-bullion-development-corp.html) coin sales as well: the Austrian Mint reported an 80 per cent drop in sales for the first two months of the year and the Royal British Mint a 50 per cent decline in gold coin production for the first quarter.
What’s even more dramatic is the difference in the dollar value of the sales. Gold Eagle sales in the U.S. dropped US$10,263,500 from a year earlier – but silver sales increased by US$61,855,290. So, not only did silver sales make up the drop in gold sales, they exceeded them by $51,591,790.
Is the rush into “poor man’s gold” underway?
Why the answer to that question is significant is that a shift toward silver for this reason could signal we’re inching closer to the greater masses getting involved in the precious metals arena. And that – for those of us who’ve been invested for awhile now – would be music to the ears. Because when they start getting involved, the mania will be underway, and from that point forward, it’s game on.
I’m not saying the mania is starting, and I actually think we could see another sell-off before things take off for good. Gold could dip to US$1,000 and maybe even US$950, with silver going to the US$14 to US$15 range. But as clues like these begin to build up, we’ll know we’re getting closer. (And any drop to those ranges would clearly be a major buying opportunity.)
Everyone talks about gold, but a meaningful portion of one’s precious metals portfolio should be devoted to silver. The market is tiny, making the price potentially explosive. Remember that in the 1970s bull market gold advanced over 700 per cent, but silver soared over 1,400 per cent.
Don’t be a “poor man” by ignoring gold’s shiny cousin.
And while buying silver is a must, it’s the silver stocks that will truly soar in a mania.
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yep then oil went back up as producers where stopping exploration an demand increased prices went up an will continue to go up with inflation
The USD attached debt is only going one way how can any smart economist see the hugely increasing USD debt levels as a positive step longer term
If interest rates go back to some kind of sane level the US will be paying 1 trillion just in interest per year on the massive debt.
Oil is actually useful JB, unlike gold. I can't put gold in my petrol tank.
Conspiracy theory #3
Punters have lost faith in the exchanges because the POG is being manipulated downwards and is not the true value of gold, so the gold is going direct from the mines to the new owners.
Agricultural commodities are the one bright spot at the moment JB, bought some AAC recently. Book value A$2.44
trackers
05-05-2010, 12:41 PM
not really sure myself.... it could be still in the mania phase or the bull trap - compare and make your own call....
I got out of my speculative gold longs quite quickly as trading gold is scary to my money management rules but still hold some silver for the long term but have an acceptance of high volatility (possible low prices) with that.
People I listen to (Global Gann Financial) remain bullish on gold but EWI (Prechter using Elliot Wave) spotted an ending diagonal triangle formation (bearish)
Whoops, good call - Thought we were in a discussion about the market in general for some reason, not gold! My bad
Conspiracy theory #4.
Fort Knox is empty.
Fort Knox's vault has a 22 ton steel door and is guarded by tanks, machine guns and hundreds of soldiers. This is to prevent the American public from finding out the vault is empty.
Who cares, in times of crisis it's the USD everyone goes for, not gold.
Conspiracy theory #5
There is a secret 'gold war' being fought between China and the USA. This the 3rd gold war being fought, the USA and its allies losing the first 2.
China has lost faith in the USD and is covertly acquiring trillions of dollars in physical gold which it will distribute one way or another to its populace.
This will then be the springboard for the goldbugs aspirations of 500-1000% return on their investment and US$10,000+ gold.
Yeah right!
As probably the biggest single investor in US Treasuries the Chinese Government will be creaming it as the USD appreciates against almost everything else.
Conspiracy theory #6
There are gold bars out there that are gold coated tungsten. Never verified or proven.
Conspiracy theory #7
I think this is my new favourite.
Haiti, which was subjected to a massive earthquake followed by torrential rain was hit United Nations (which rules the world) directed weather weaponry. This was because Haiti had discovered oil and gold and refused to hand it over to the multi-national corporations.
Yep, there's some loonies out there alright.
stevo1
06-05-2010, 12:23 PM
Conspiracy Theory #101
Skol is a Fed Reserve mole cunningly posting on sharetrader to artifically increase the US peso to the detriment of gold and silver and to increase his airlines around the world using his own oil BwaaHaHa bwaHaHa!
shasta
06-05-2010, 03:19 PM
Conspiracy Theory #101
Skol is a Fed Reserve mole cunningly posting on sharetrader to artifically increase the US peso to the detriment of gold and silver and to increase his airlines around the world using his own oil BwaaHaHa bwaHaHa!
Very amusing, just like Skol's conspiracies
I love a good conspiracy story
Anyone know if the US has stopped printing money yet?
I've got a little more time now so I can expand on conspiracy theory #7. This is apparently scalar technology and not only weather weaponry but is used by the UN to punish countries that don't act in accordance with UN instructions.
Icelands volcano was ordered to erupt because it wouldn't pay after the Icelandic bank meltdown.
Japan got some typhoons and earthquakes because the Toyota family won't part with their shares and give it to the banks.
China got a few earthquakes because they won't go along with the sanctions on Iran.
I love a good conspiracy story
What's your theory on manipulation and government interference?
Any herd looks for a leader. One of the best examples of herd behaviour was the Nazi movement, and so the goldbugs search for their fuhrer.
Names like Doug Casey, Kitco, Mark Lundeen, Paul Mylchreest, Jeff (silver will be $1000 an oz) Nielson, James Turk keep popping up.
They, like Adolf Hitler, look for their scapegoats why gold isn't exploding. The IMF, Federal Reserve,Glenn Stevens, Ben Bernanke et al.
They're looking for the leader to get them to the US$10,000+ promised land.
Uncanny do you think?
shasta
06-05-2010, 06:23 PM
What's your theory on manipulation and government interference?
Well Silver has been known to be manipulated in the past, so its pretty safe to assume gold has been/is as well.
Govt interference, well why is the US printing money if it's got all that gold in fort knox???
I mean the US Govt owes China $800b i think from memory, thats without the interest either
Cant see Silver getting over $US25/oz or Gold over $US1250/oz this year, but i do think they will both test it, before a retrace
JBmurc
06-05-2010, 06:24 PM
Any herd looks for a leader. One of the best examples of herd behaviour was the Nazi movement, and so the goldbugs search for their fuhrer.
Names like Doug Casey, Kitco, Mark Lundeen, Paul Mylchreest, Jeff (silver will be $1000 an oz) Nielson, James Turk keep popping up.
They, like Adolf Hitler, look for their scapegoats. The IMF, Federal Reserve,Glenn Stevens, Ben Bernanke et al.
They're looking for the leader to get them to the US$10,000+ promised land.
Uncanny do you think?
What herd??? I don't know anyone that owns any decent amounts of gold bullion(an I'd say most here would be the same) ---the only bubble I see is the massive debt bubble Thats only getting larger -greece is only the tip of the ice berg---high Inflation is coming the powers that be want it they need it --Gold/silver are a great hedge against the devaluation of the tenders of exhange.....
shasta
06-05-2010, 06:55 PM
What herd??? I don't know anyone that owns any decent amounts of gold bullion(an I'd say most here would be the same) ---the only bubble I see is the massive debt bubble Thats only getting larger -greece is only the tip of the ice berg---high Inflation is coming the powers that be want it they need it --Gold/silver are a great hedge against the devaluation of the tenders of exhange.....
Whose next after Greece, Portugal then Spain?
I see tonight on the news the GBP is .48 & the Euro .56 - crazy when you relate them back to these historic averages!
I've had strict advice from JB not to buy USD. Bad advice indeed, because the USD has strenghtened against almost every other currency as the flight to safety takes place.
The NZD is up because of employment figures and looming interest rate increases.
Hold on!
Isn't the flight to safety supposed to be gold?
Well Silver has been known to be manipulated in the past
Correct, the Hunt Bros attempted to corner the market in 1980 driving the silver price through the roof. When the inevitable crash occurred the Hunts lost 1 billion (1980 dollars) and filed for bankruptcy.
Conspiracy theory #8.
During WW2 a vast treasure of Japanese gold that had been looted from Asian countries was found by US troops in the Phillipines. It was hidden over 175 sites and amounted to 300,000 tons of gold. (Never mind that only 161,000 tons has been mined in history). This gold has been used by the US & Western intelligence agencies manipulate the markets, overthrow governments and fill the coffers of the administrators, to use the goldbugs favourite word, the 'cabal'.
Every President since Harry Truman has been aware of this along with the major banks, and a group of powerful and superrich European families who actually control the Federal Reserve and don't have the best interests of the USA at heart. The secret organisation administrating this fortune is known as 'The Enterprise'.
lissica
07-05-2010, 12:08 AM
Conspiracy theory #8.
Every President since Harry Truman has been aware of this along with the major banks, and a group of powerful and superrich European families who actually control the Federal Reserve and don't have the best interests of the USA at heart. The secret organisation administrating this fortune is known as 'The Enterprise'.
Are they like the Illuminati of gold?
tricha
07-05-2010, 05:31 AM
Gold, is this the time, money to be trashed and gold to be king again.?
I have some insurance
Are they like the Illuminati of gold?
Conspiracy theory #9
Something like that. The Illuminati story is so weird as to almost defy imagination. Goldbugs will believe anything.
Read about it here:
http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2009/03/30/bob-chapman-the-illuminatis-lust-for-gold
Make sure you get your food, water, guns &ammo and of course, gold & silver.
LOL
trackers
07-05-2010, 08:32 AM
I've had strict advice from JB not to buy USD. Bad advice indeed, because the USD has strenghtened against almost every other currency as the flight to safety takes place.
The NZD is up because of employment figures and looming interest rate increases.
Hold on!
Isn't the flight to safety supposed to be gold?
Yup.........
The moment of your redemption is here trackers, this will get the herd really excited.
I gues we'll all be carrying pieces of eight around in our back pockets, right. But in those days citizens carried pistols and daggers so better get yourself a firearms licence.
JBmurc
07-05-2010, 11:08 AM
well with the USD an Gold going up it's very good for gold producers(In time USD will also fall then gold will be heading over 1500) like NAV if the current selldown of profitable miners continue as well as increasing AUD gold NAV will make more than it's market value in the first year of 100koz production june10/11 smart investors will be soaking up shares in the goldies in this sell-off--I see some goldies in other markets up 5%-8%
golds going much higher
GOLD $$1359oz AUD
Conspiracy theory #10.
This is a variation of the Illuminati theme, but so totally, incredibly, 'off the planet' you might say that I don't think even the goldbugs will buy it. Well, maybe they will.
http://home.iae.nl/users/lightnet/creator/illuminaticonspiracy2.htm
Even if the rise of the gold price has been driven by a conspiracy theory or two, why no make some money off if? :t_up:
Ask the gold share owners how much money they've made recently, they're really squealing.
I will be buying today but the last one I'd buy is something like NAV or worse, NAVO.
JBmurc
07-05-2010, 11:20 AM
Ask the gold share owners how much money they've made recently, they're really squealing.
I will be buying today but the last one I'd buy is something like NAV or worse, NAVO.
we'll see me old gold hater too bad you didn't short gold LOL now what price is it going to again 400-500 LOL
JBmurc
07-05-2010, 11:28 AM
The real winner today? Gold. It’s up about $25, to $1,200. People want real money. They do not trust the debt-laden currencies of Europe and the United States. Or for that matter Japan. Gold is fast becoming, once again, a reserve currency of choice.
http://kudlowsmoneypolitics.blogspot.com/
Hi,
Please explain this graph. Thanks.
http://www.marketobservation.com/blogs/media/blogs/nr/GoldPriceUSInflation.jpg
Yes, in 1980 lots of people lost lots of money. That's what that graph says.
My advice - pay off the mortgage.
Take my word for it ENP, the bedlam, chaos, anarchy and USD implosion the goldbugs pray for will never happen.
Seen it all before.
I can't even begin to remember how many times in my life I've read about punters killing themselves because of the colossal amount of money they've lost.
Yes well by the looks of that one, it isn't used as a hedge against inflation but more for speculation of making a quick dollar. And if it repeats from 1980, gold could lose about 70-80% of its value in 2-3 years.
Scary thought.
NAV down 1.5.
Yep, punters really piling into those good value gold shares alright.
Phaedrus was right.
stevo1
07-05-2010, 01:34 PM
Skol in his position as a Fed Reserve mole/agent(cunningly placed on ST to villifey those nasty evil godless metals) also owns a paper and ink company and in collusion with his Fed reserve masters realises he can make a fortune printing notes for every stimulii package at every crisis in all or any countries with very little cost and no risk.
Damnded sight easier and quicker than that dangerous dirty messey digging and refining.
And if there is hyperinflation or financial meltdown he can just print more and more and more and more and AAAA HA HA HA AR HA HA HA AR HA HA HA HA HA and and and and then people could use them as firestarters and and and then riot and and and and then burn stuff.
BWAHAHA BWAHAHAHA BWBWBWHAHAHAHA
JBmurc
07-05-2010, 01:40 PM
Well those sellers of NAV will look back 12m from now kicking themselves for selling so low ,If I didn't have a house to pay for I'd be loading up the truck with cheap shares--fear is in control
GOLD is moving steady higher
NAV from june will produce est. 277oz gold per day they will make a profit per day of $155,674 AUD(1362oz aud) gee making that profit per day should really hurt them LOL so far NAV have keep to there plan 100% I have no doult NAV will annouce production numbers this month..
JBmurc happy holding truck loads of NAV & NAVO
Told you to buy AAC JB, you can't eat the yellow metal.
Keep your dosh in NZD or AUD. Neither countries have ever had hyperinflation.
JBmurc
07-05-2010, 08:33 PM
Told you to buy AAC JB, you can't eat the yellow metal.
Keep your dosh in NZD or AUD. Neither countries have ever had hyperinflation.
you should know I don't own any gold bullion I'm a silver bullion man going be my kiwi saver 51kg in the safe will keep buying 1kg min per month till #1 it becomes far to expensive #2 I can't fit anymore in my safe should hold 200kg
shasta
07-05-2010, 08:42 PM
you should know I don't own any gold bullion I'm a silver bullion man going be my kiwi saver 51kg in the safe will keep buying 1kg min per month till #1 it becomes far to expensive #2 I can't fit anymore in my safe should hold 200kg
Plus there's far more upside in Silver than Gold at these levels, Silver for what ever reason still lags the other metals?
J B, where do you buy your 1kgs of silver? Ive bought gold coins before ,but not sure about silver.
JBmurc
08-05-2010, 09:10 AM
J B, where do you buy your 1kgs of silver? Ive bought gold coins before ,but not sure about silver.
I brought my last 1kg off trademe for a bargain $850 checkout the silver thread have many answers on there for keen silver bullion buyers
what are the advantages of buying bullion over say silver futures contracts / silver stocks? You seem to pay quite a premium for bullion compared to the spot price
Huang Chung
08-05-2010, 01:59 PM
what are the advantages of buying bullion over say silver futures contracts / silver stocks? You seem to pay quite a premium for bullion compared to the spot price
And another question JB, how can you tell the authenticity of your purchase when you buy off a site such as trademe or ebay?
JBmurc
08-05-2010, 02:57 PM
what are the advantages of buying bullion over say silver futures contracts / silver stocks? You seem to pay quite a premium for bullion compared to the spot price
current NZ spot- $26.50oz I brought a 1kilo 32 oz for $850= $26.50
Now there's only 2 silver focused miners in the world that make a profit cause the cost to mine silver in the world is expensive so buying at spot is a no-brainer
JBmurc
08-05-2010, 03:08 PM
And another question JB, how can you tell the authenticity of your purchase when you buy off a site such as trademe or ebay?
I keep to well known bullion brands I've brought before - remember if you buy bullion it must be .999% pure an this should be stated on the bar,coin
everything one needs to prove is on the bullion ----A bullion maker for one must be registered--(I would buy if I didn't trust the bullion stamp)
An as for fake silver bullion I'd be surprised if there was much because of the low price
the safest option if you go to buy deal with the guys than have sold alot of bullion an have good feedback
JBmurc
09-05-2010, 08:55 PM
Hi Josh,
Rumour has it that JP Morgan have been indicted for manipulation of the silver market.
As a precaution we are not taking new orders until 30 mins after market open at 9.00am tomorrow.
Apologies for any inconvenience.
Regards
Mark
Huang Chung
09-05-2010, 11:01 PM
Hi Josh,
Rumour has it that JP Morgan have been indicted for manipulation of the silver market.
As a precaution we are not taking new orders until 30 mins after market open at 9.00am tomorrow.
Apologies for any inconvenience.
Regards
Mark
More info:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/feds_probing_jpmorgan_trades_in_gZzMvWBqOJpB55M7Rh 9vwM
They're burning the midnight oil in Brussels. The ECB say they will defend the Euro at all costs.
Won't be good news for AU.
JB,
Euro markets go through the roof.
I heard the other day that the reds from Central Otago aren't that good this year, so a Pinot from somewhere else please.
Huang Chung
10-05-2010, 10:07 PM
JB,
Euro markets go through the roof.
And gold is off less than 2%.....
tricha
10-05-2010, 11:44 PM
And gold is off less than 2%.....
Inflation is coming fast and will be severe. Change is in the wind and finally gold will be King again, theres no stopping it this time.
http://www.completeinvestor.com/sites/default/files/allfiles/images/JRDM1209sub1.gif
Contrarian warning: tricha's buying gold.
A piece from the WSJ a few hours ago.
Commodity and currency ETFs and ETNs may also be getting a second look. PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (UUP), which lets investors bet the dollar will appreciate against a euro-dominated basket of foreign currencies, has returned about 7% year to date. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has gained about 10%.
But gold, at more than $1,200 an ounce, has already benefited from a long bull run that many think is nearly spent.
"I wouldn't touch gold at a $1,000 an ounce," says Herb Morgan, chief executive of money manager Efficient Market Advisors LLC. Among bearish signs Morgan sees: Recent television ads promoting gold seem like evidence that investors are chasing hot retuns.
"It's game over," he predicts.
JBmurc
11-05-2010, 09:53 AM
gold back over 1200oz higher lows---- higher highs
tricha
11-05-2010, 07:22 PM
gold back over 1200oz higher lows---- higher highs
We could be in for something we have never seen in our lives, been doing some reading and inflation is next on the agenda.
Gold is at the crossroads, maybe - maybe not, for a little life insurance, some gold in physical or shares is a must. So I hold one gold stock as a hedge against massive inflation, remember folks the printing presses are working o\t.
Happy investing.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/baker/apr292010.html
Homestake Mining
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Baker/images/apr292010_7.jpg
We are in the camp with Jim Rogers, Bob Hoye, David Nichols, Marc Faber and Pamela & Mary Anne Aden. Up is the direction and the remaining question is how high? With the analysis above we believe we can potentially frame the high between $2,450 and $3,500. A wide range we agree, but we believe we will see signs along the way as price reaches our estimated time frame for the top.
When we start to see gold go parabolic, rising day after day and everyone in the world getting excited and joining the party, then we will know gold is in a bubble. We believe that gold’s big move up with be a moon shot like this chart of Homestake Mining from 1932 to 1934. Our challenge then will be to exit before the masses and we see the strong possibility of this event happening within the next 18 months.
We believe investors are being given the rare possibility of a once-in-a-lifetime-opportunity, yes, a parabolic move in gold. The question is what will you do with it and do you need some assistance?
For those readers unfamiliar with our services:
Dudley Baker
Owner/Editor
Guadalajara/Ajijic, Mexico
April 29, 2010
Yeah, if the posters here go to the peak oil thread tricha, they'll see how accurate you were on that one.
tricha's a CONTRARIAN WARNING posters.
Started the peak oil thread and guessed what happened to the POO, it crashed.
Started the "Airlines r a great public service endorsed by Skol" thread and airlines have been stand out stocks.
Huang Chung
11-05-2010, 10:40 PM
They're burning the midnight oil in Brussels. The ECB say they will defend the Euro at all costs.
Won't be good news for AU.
Kind of like a monetary version of the Maginot Line....and we know how well THAT worked...
Gold up another $10.
nice history Huang
could it be a new all time high for gold tonight???
silver over 19 as well....thats up 60c in the last hour or so
Ponda
12-05-2010, 12:53 AM
nice history Huang
could it be a new all time high for gold tonight???
Peat,
Just a quick question if I may, What is the all time high of gold. Not needing the inflation adjusted.
Thanks in advance
*************************************
Edit
Just found it out. Thanks it probably took me more time to post the request than it took to find it out. Cheers,
$1226.56 on Dec. 3 2009
Kitco
Spot
Bid/Ask 1231.80 - 1232.80
and
Comex gold futures Tuesday afternoon hit a new all-time record high of $1,232.50 an ounce.
Comex gold futures Tuesday afternoon hit a new all-time record high of $1,232.50 an ounce.
iShares COMEX Gold Trust
The iShares COMEX Gold Trust was launched by iShares on 21 January 2005 and is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: IAU) and Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: IGT). As of April 28, 2009 the fund held 62.32 tonnes of gold in storage.[10] As of 2009, doubts have been raised about the gold which COMEX claims to store in its vaults.[11]
tricha
12-05-2010, 06:36 PM
Kind of like a monetary version of the Maginot Line....and we know how well THAT worked...
Gold up another $10.
Have u got any goldies Huang, looks like a pretty good day today, is this the start when cash is set to became trash ???????
253
301
DOM http://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/green_round_small.gif 29 10.7%
4:13 pm
TRY http://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/green_round_small.gif 10 4.1%
4:09 pm
14
CTO http://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/green_round_small.gif 1.5 12%
4:13 pm
5.5
FML http://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/green_round_small.gif 0.3 5.8%
4:13 pm
Have u got any goldies Huang, looks like a pretty good day today, is this the start when cash is set to became trash ???????
It seems you've metamorphised from a peak oiler to a goldbug tricha.
"cash is set to become trash".
I can't get to grips with the goldbugs psyche. These are people who are hoping the world currency system will implode; hyperinflation, chaos and anarchy will reign. The goldbugs will be unemployed.
It'll be like Zimbabwe.
They'll be suburban and apartment dwellers who wouldn't have a clue how to live off the land, defend their property, own and fire a gun, kill and butcher an animal, locate clean water, find firewood, provide electricity or feed their families.
They will be rich, they think, but no one will want their gold or silver because you can't eat it. Maybe you can slice little slivers off.
They should be careful what they wish for.
I have all that here, and when their family's starving, I'll sell them some meat, for a kg of gold.
Physical metal only please, no ETF's or share certificates, definitely no Comex, IOU's or unallocated accounts.
Huang Chung
12-05-2010, 07:18 PM
It seems you've metamorphised from peak oil to a goldbug tricha.
"cash is set to become trash".
I can't get to grips with the goldbugs psyche. These are people who are hoping the world currency system will implode, hyperinflation, chaos and anarchy will reign. The goldbugs will be unemployed.
It'll be like Zimbabwe.
They'll be suburban and apartment dwellers who wouldn't have a clue how to live off the land, own and fire a gun, or kill and butcher an animal, locate clean water, provide electricity or feed their families.
They will be rich, they think, but no one will want gold or silver because you can't eat it. Maybe you can slice little slivers off.
They should be careful what they wish for.
I have all that here, and when their family's starving, I'll sell them some meat, for a kg of gold.
i have
Hey Skol
I know where you're coming from...gold really is a stupid God, given that it is one of the more useless metals.
But, hey, it has a value, and you and I can't change that.
I decided to put my inhibitions aside and go with the flow.
Huang Chung
12-05-2010, 07:20 PM
Have u got any goldies Huang, looks like a pretty good day today, is this the start when cash is set to became trash ???????
My biggest holding ATM is Papillon Resources (PIR), a West African gold explorer. Looks extremely undervalued in my opinion.
I've also got a smaller holding in Sandfire Resources (SFR), which is primarily a copper play, but which has a useful gold component.
Some light reading on ETF's.
A common way to invest in gold or silver without having to physically store it yourself is through a precious metals ETF. ETF is an abbreviation "exchange-traded fund". It is like a mutual fund that is traded on a stock exchange like a stock, and can be purchased and liquidated very simply through any trading platform, even a discount online brokerage account. ETFs track indices such as the S&P 500, or industries, or in this case a commodity, specifically a precious metal like gold or silver. You purchase shares of the fund, and the fund managers invest that money in gold or silver on your behalf. If the value of metal increases, the value of your fund shares also increases. When you cash out the fund sells your portion of the metals and gives you your money. Theoretically speaking, that is.
The problem with gold ETFs is that unlike possessing physical gold bullion, you never really know what is happening with your gold. You don't even know if any gold is really allocated to you. You certainly don't own any of the fund's assets, the fund owns them. If you read the fine print of the ETF prospectus you will likely find some fishy statements, such as the iShares Silver Trust which states that "The iShares are intended to constitute a simple and cost-effective means of making an investment similar to an investment in silver." What do they mean by "an investment similar to an investment in silver"? That statement is good evidence that not all of your shares are backed by real physical silver. They may be backed by cash, they may be backed by a piece of paper that promises to give the fund some silver in the future, but not every share is backed by the physical bullion you intended to invest in.
Let's say the fund managers are playing with your money in creative ways through futures and whatnot, and make a big mistake and lose a large portion of the fund's assets? The value of your shares could drop like a rock even if the value of gold is skyrocketing at that very moment. That possibility is evident in another quote from the iShares Silver Trust prospectus that says "the liquidity of the iShares may decline and the price of the iShares may fluctuate independently of the price of silver and may fall". There, they admit it. This investment is not an investment in silver, at least not completely. I don't know how likely it is that the fund price will drop independent of the metal's spot price, but one of the major reasons for holding physical gold and silver is to protect your wealth in times of chaos. But in times of chaos I wouldn't be very uncomfortable holding shares in a trust that is owned by a bank. If that bank decided to shut down the trust and default because they don't have the physical metals to back your shares, what could you do about it? It sounds unlikely, but in times of chaos who knows what could happen. That's the point of having a safe haven investment in physical metals.
If you are an active short term trader, ETFs are a reasonable trading vehicle. You can sell your shares easily any time you want, through any trading platform including a discount online brokerage, the buy/sell spread is much more narrow than when buying physical precious metals. The funds basically do follow the movements of the precious metals they are meant to track, so if you plan on making short term trades ETFs are fairly secure. The problem comes through exposing yourself to risk through longterm investment in an ETF. In that case I highly recommend that you be the sole owner of your own physical bullion and personally possess it, either in your home or in an allocated storage facility.
To learn more about investing in gold and other precious metals, visit http://the-gold-market.blogspot.com
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Paul_Jorgensen
fwu005
14-05-2010, 09:25 AM
See:
http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/12/markets/gold/index.htm
My opinion is to buy gold shares with production now and soon in proper time. Gold producers are equal to Money printers.
Ive noticed that some people like to use the ''you cant eat gold if things collapse'' thoery,but i think there are alot ofphases that can happen between where we are now,and total economic collapse.
It makes sense that alot of economic powers would want to move in the direction of a more gold based standard,at least partially,in light of the current paper currency situation.[Hell,theyre selling it in vending machines now]
China has been buying up big time and is now encouraging its people to buy silver as savings[its easier to afford] It seems logical that we could be seeing the start of a slow repositioning of how at least some economic powers choose to back thier assets.
"They're selling it in vending machines now".
Correct.
Good contrarian signal. Hey skid, you heard any politicians talking about going back to gold?
shasta
14-05-2010, 11:41 AM
Aren't pollies more likely to be printing money?
What's going to happen when inflation becomes an issue down the line?
Gold now at $US1234.60
Interview: GSA's Doody Says Gold Market Not a Bubble Yet
13 March 2010, 5:14 p.m. EST
By Terry Wooten, Interviewed by Daniela Cambone
Of Kitco News
New York -- (Kitco News) --Gold isn't in a bubble yet but concerns over inflation, soaring debt and the U.S. dollar have many people eyeing the precious metal as a hedge, according to John Doody, author and publisher of the Gold Stock Analyst.
When asked if gold was in the bubble stage, Doody countered with a question of whether taxi drivers were telling their passengers that they should buy gold. If not, he said, "We're not in a bubble. Isn't that the classic definition of a bubble--when everybody has gold?"
Doody said it may be on people's minds to buy gold because of the economic crises in Europe , the possibility of inflation and the health of the U.S. dollar. "It may be on people's minds, but we are not there yet," he said.
He said during the past two years of the economic crises, there has been too much paper created by governments to try and float the economy out of the deep waters.
"Now they are creating a lot more paper and a lot more inflation is going to come out of that," Doody said in an interview with Kitco News on the sidelines of the Hard Assets Investment Conference in New York. China is also seeing record inflation too, he said "People are thinking about buying gold but they aren't buying it yet.”Until your taxi driver starts telling you to buy gold, I think you are safe buying it."
Gold's rally has been driven in part by momentum funds, Doody said, but he said the printing presses working overtime were also a substantial contributor. He noted the U.S. is showing budget deficits of a trillion dollars a year, and that Europe just did a debt guarantee program that will create another trillion a year deficit.
"They're trying to paper over problems with more paper," Doody said. "That doesn't get you out of a financial crisis.... it just delays the inevitable."
Doody said in Europe there are still memories of the Weimar Republic and visions of housewives going to the market with a basket of cash because it took that much to buy a basket of groceries. "They know what rampant inflation is," he said. "And I think we are closing in on that mode. When the US economy and the world economy start running again, and recovering from the crash of 2008, all the money that is in the system is going to show up in increased inflation."
As for concerns over China, Doody said the huge country will have its ups and downs because its growth has been so rapid. "It's going to take tremendous amounts of electric power to handle the growing move from the farms to the urban areas, it's going to take more factories producing things," he said.
The rapid growth China has experienced makes it likely there will be some slowing, he said. "I don't think they are in a bubble in the sense that they are going to collapse," said Doody.
Gold Stock Analyst is known for its 10 top stock picks and Doody was asked what he looks for in a company and its stock. He said he wants companies that are producers. If they are not yet a producer, he wants to see an independent feasibility study by an independent engineering firm that shows drilling results, capital costs to build a mine, the recoveries and the metallurgy.
Such a report blesses the deposit the same way an independent accounting firm blesses the financial statements, he said. "Are they always right? No. But are accounting firms always right? No. But most of the time they are. "
Doody said he's often asked to name his favorite stock. "I say, what is your favourite child? I don't know the answer to that. If I did, I wouldn't be here. I'd be on my 200-foot yacht in the Mediterranean.”
--By Terry Wooten twooten@kitco.com and Daniela Cambone dcambone@kitco.com of Kitco News;
You won't see on other threads posters referring a 'leader' the way goldbugs do.
Gold threads often refer to a 'leader' like Mark Lundeen, Kitco, Clive Maund, John Doody, Peter Schiff ad infinitum.
Goldbugs need to be led and pay homage to the 'leader'.
Adolf Hitler said the herd need a leader and because of their low intellect the more lies the 'leader' tells the more the herd responds.
shasta
14-05-2010, 12:27 PM
I'm not paying any homage to any "leader", i merely posted an article that also raises the issue of inflation.
(Yes, Kitco has some rampant Gold bugs/bulls on it, im not one of them)
You can't keep printing money & expect it won't devalue your currency, Zimbabwe is a prime example of this.
The US will face an inflation problem down the line, which will more than likely further devalue it's currency & boost Gold.
It's not rocket science here
You're really scratching the barrel to introduce Adolf Hitler into a gold debate/thread!
You're really scratching the barrel to introduce Adolf Hitler into a gold debate/thread!
Not at all.
Adolf Hitler wasn't perfect, far from it, but he was one dude who knew about herd instinct better than anyone else.
The Nazi movement was one of the best examples of crowd behaviour in history.
shasta
14-05-2010, 12:34 PM
Not at all.
Adolf Hitler wasn't perfect, far from it, but he was one dude who knew about herd behaviour better than anyone else.
The Nazi movement was one of the best examples of crowd behaviour in history.
He wasn't an economist either, but Germany did well after the war - maybe he was a gold bug!
macduffy
14-05-2010, 12:45 PM
I don't know where Skol's point about a "leader" sprang from?
I couldn't see any reference to such in the Kitco article and shasta certainly didn't use the word.
It seems perfectly logical to me that while governments keep printing money, the threat of high inflation will persist and the price of gold will remain firm. I won't be buying any physical gold but I have a small part of my spec portfolio in gold stocks.
I don't know where Skol's point about a "leader" sprang from?
I couldn't see any reference to such in the Kitco article and shasta certainly didn't use the word.
It seems perfectly logical to me that while governments keep printing money, the threat of high inflation will persist and the price of gold will remain firm. I won't be buying any physical gold but I have a small part of my spec portfolio in gold stocks.
No he didn't use the word 'leader', but goldbugs do require a leader. Check out gold websites, it's full of the prophets of doom who tell us the end is nigh and use the same boring, hackneyed phrases.
It's bollocks. Inflation? Where is it?
Like peak oil.
LOL
shasta
14-05-2010, 01:47 PM
No he didn't use the word 'leader', but goldbugs do require a leader. Check out gold websites, it's full of the prophets of doom who tell us the end is nigh and use the same boring, hackneyed phrases.
It's bollocks. Inflation? Where is it?
Like peak oil.
LOL
Inflation will appear when the US economy picks up, & interest rates rise & we get to the upper end of the economic cycle.
That could be a year or two away, who knows.
But if they keep printing money, it's getting closer all the time
Hey skol, Thanks for your reply.
Do you take your que from the politicians?
Im not saying the end is near,but i see that China and others are starting to slowly move away from $US base assets.They are trying to buy Kiwi farms and telling their people to buy silver for savings.
Some other form of value aside from paper money.Does that seem so far fetched?
Im not selling the house to buy gold,but I do have a bit as an insurance policy.
After all,we do live in uncertain times
You can in fact have deflation (as opposed to inflation) while they are printing money.
It would occur when credit is being removed from the system faster than the money is being printed - and that IS what's happening now.
tricha
14-05-2010, 06:49 PM
You can in fact have deflation (as opposed to inflation) while they are printing money.
It would occur when credit is being removed from the system faster than the money is being printed - and that IS what's happening now.
It's about to change, way too much money being printed, gold will be "the" choice of currency again, sooner than later.
Remember Germany, 19twenties, cash was trash and it took a wheelbarrow of it to to buy a loaf of bread, WELL it looks like the Germans are getting ready.
Gulf hotel installs gold-dispensing machine
Amena Bakr (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=amena.bakr&)
DUBAI
Thu May 13, 2010 12:49pm EDT
View Full Size (http://www.reuters.com/article/slideshow?articleId=USTRE64C3DT20100513#a=1)
http://www.reuters.com/resources/r/?m=02&d=20100513&t=2&i=106733790&w=460&r=2010-05-13T155858Z_01_BTRE64C18EF00_RTROPTP_0_EMIRATES-GOLD-VENDING
http://www.reuters.com/resources/r/?m=02&d=20100513&t=2&i=106756099&w=460&r=2010-05-13T164925Z_01_BTRE64C1AR300_RTROPTP_0_EMIRATES-GOLD-VENDING
http://www.reuters.com/resources/r/?m=02&d=20100513&t=2&i=106756100&w=460&r=2010-05-13T164925Z_01_BTRE64C1AR400_RTROPTP_0_EMIRATES-GOLD-VENDING
http://www.reuters.com/resources/r/?m=02&d=20100513&t=2&i=106756097&w=460&r=2010-05-13T164925Z_01_BTRE64C1AR500_RTROPTP_0_EMIRATES-GOLD-VENDING
http://www.reuters.com/resources/r/?m=02&d=20100513&t=2&i=106756096&w=460&r=2010-05-13T164925Z_01_BTRE64C1AR600_RTROPTP_0_EMIRATES-GOLD-VENDING
http://www.reuters.com/resources/r/?m=02&d=20100513&t=2&i=106756098&w=460&r=2010-05-13T164925Z_01_BTRE64C1AR700_RTROPTP_0_EMIRATES-GOLD-VENDING
DUBAI (Reuters) - It's the ultimate hole-in-the-wall -- a money machine that dispenses pure gold.
Lifestyle (http://www.reuters.com/news/lifestyle)
But installed beneath the gold-coated ceilings of Abu Dhabi's Emirates Palace hotel, where royalty and billionaires come for cappuccinos topped with gold flakes, the machine almost seems part of the furniture.
"The reason we chose Emirates Palace is because it really fits with the surroundings here," said German entrepreneur Thomas Geissler, creator of the "Gold to Go" brand and chief executive of Ex Oriente Lux.
The exterior of the machine is coated with a thin layer of gold and offers customers 320 items to choose from, ranging from gold bars that can weigh up to 10 grams, to customized gold coins.
"All the gold is imported from Germany, and soon we will have a customized gold bar with a print of the Emirates Palace logo, which will be a nice souvenir for guests to take home," said Geissler.
Through a computer system, the ATM gold machine updates the gold price every 10 minutes to match international markets.
For now, it takes notes of the local dirham currency, but the option of using credit cards will soon be introduced.
The cash-for-gold machines were first tested in Germany in 2009, but Geissler chose Abu Dhabi for the official launch of his invention because of the region's high demand for gold.
"On the first night we had a lot of demand," he said. "One customer even bought one item of every product we have."
Geissler's timing is spot-on, as investors flock to gold as a safe haven from economic turbulence.
On Thursday, gold priced in sterling and euros reached record highs, while that priced in the more usual dollar denomination was quoted at $1,236 an ounce, with dealers expecting it to reach fresh highs over coming days.
(Editing by Paul Casciato (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=paul.casciato&))
Huang Chung
14-05-2010, 07:52 PM
Gulf hotel installs gold-dispensing machine
If there is a silver version, I'm sure JBM will order one for his basement.
for all I respect gold , the ATM's seem a bit weird. Hey I have one medium of exchange so I'll buy another.
Its not like a coke or a packet of cigs where you use it up and need another one.
Its an investment decision not a shopping trip!
:confused:
oh and yeh they'd be good for a smash and grab raid!
Gold, is this the time, money to be trashed and gold to be king again.?
I have some insurance
FML-insurance?
You've been had tricha, ask for your money back.
Lower highs and lower lows. Looks like a terminal case.
elZorro
15-05-2010, 03:01 PM
Stumbled on this, any use?
http://www.dailymarkets.com/forex/2010/05/13/gold-has-become-for-the-short-term-at-least-a-currency-play/
Alternative view..
London Gold Market Report
Inflation will appear when the US economy picks up, & interest rates rise & we get to the upper end of the economic cycle.
That could be a year or two away, who knows.
But if they keep printing money, it's getting closer all the time
I'm in the US at the moment Shasta. I've just been reading the WSJ over lunch and the headline story says that the US economy is firmly in recovery mode.
Oddly enough my lunch cost me $6.52 (incl.tax).
It wasn't $73,000,000 and I didn't need a wheelbarrow to take the dosh to the restaurant.
Weimar Republic, Song Dynasty, it's all a lot of nonsense.
A few pages back JB Murc advised us not to buy USD under any circumstances. Lucky I ignored his advice, USD is up against almost all other currencies.
tricha
16-05-2010, 12:06 PM
From the frying pan into the fire, that's what any fool who buys US junk money is going to get, gold is going to "be" thee currency of choice.
Most States are in the same boat as California, all their ATM's are empty and it's nearly all over for the US, all a $ will be worth is the value of the paper it is printed on.
California 'must slash spending' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8684188.stm)
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger says the state must slash spending to deal with a $19bn budget deficit.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/10117390.stm
Page last updated at 20:28 GMT, Friday, 14 May 2010 21:28 UK
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/47850000/jpg/_47850337_009259775-1.jpg Markets are fearful about the impact of austerity measures Global shares have fallen sharply as concerns continue about the impact of financial austerity measures in Greece, Portugal and Spain.
Amid fears the crisis may hit the European-wide economy, the UK's main FTSE 100 index ended down 3.1%.
Spain was worse hit - its shares lost 6.6%. France's Cac fell 4.6% and Germany's Dax 3.1%.
US share markets fared less badly, with the Dow Jones ending a choppy session down a relatively modest 1.5% at 10,620.2 points.
Both the dollar and gold rose as investors sought their traditional "safe-haven".
Gold hit new record highs near $1,250 dollars an ounce and the dollar rose against the euro.
Concerns that Greece's debt crisis could spread to other countries fuelled worries about a euro collapse.
The euro hit an 18-month low against the dollar, as doubts grew that a joint rescue plan by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund would be able to contain the crisis.
JBmurc
16-05-2010, 09:30 PM
JB,
Euro markets go through the roof.
I heard the other day that the reds from Central Otago aren't that good this year, so a Pinot from somewhere else please.
you better keep your eye on deals for a bottle of --Veuve Clicquot Ponsardin Brut N.V.---- remember the price has to close lower than $1094oz last trade 2010 (from memory) its 1230oz+ at this stage
also keep the negative gold posts coming Skol seems to be gold positive LOL ---- did you get burnt by goldcorp etc in the past would explain the hate
you better keep your eye on deals for a bottle of --Veuve Clicquot Ponsardin Brut N.V.---- remember the price has to close lower than $1094oz last trade 2010 (from memory) its 1230oz+ at this stage
also keep the negative gold posts coming Skol seems to be gold positive LOL ---- did you get burnt by goldcorp etc in the past would explain the hate
Get burnt by Goldcorp? Doubt it, I don't buy gold or silver but I've dabbled with the shares in the past.
Todays FT has an article suggesting the end might be in sight for gold because the Indians won't buy it at current prices.
PS.
One of the reasons gold is up is, according to FT, is because paranoid Germans (like goldbugs) just can't get over the Weimar Republic drama, even though all Germans with a memory of that time are now dead. Austrians and Germans are buying krugerrands as fast as they can mint them and paying a very severe premium and this is what's increasing the AU price right now. The South Africans can't make enough of them apparently. Looks like another contrarian signal.
When you buy silver/gold and keep it at home, do you tell your insurance company?
Do you just get a big ass heavy metal safe and store it in there?
When you buy silver/gold and keep it at home, do you tell your insurance company?
Do you just get a big ass heavy metal safe and store it in there?
Yep, and when you want to sell it it you get a crane in and haul it off to your local bullion dealer who will have his doors closed if there's a meltdown going on.
you'd be a very lucky person if you needed a crane to lift your gold.
skol perhaps you should consider be more constructive in your posts... you do really seem to have a problem in this thread. of course you're perfectly entitled to view gold as a bubble. but its not very helpful to anyone just bagging it all the time... perhaps you could suggest an actual trade or a strategy around gold so that we can evaluate it.
gold IS overbought on the daily RSI with a coule of spinning top candles indicating uncertainty and the new high is not matched by RSI giving divergence.
So where should we short it skol ???? please put a stake in the ground re your negative sentiments.
devito
17-05-2010, 11:23 AM
I bought $20k worth of sovereigns recently and they barely made a dent in my pocket (certainly made one in my wallet though:) )
To need a crane for lifting Gold you would have to buy countless millions of dollars worth.
stevo1
17-05-2010, 11:44 AM
I think skol justs loves to hate the precious metals and is in denial of thousands of years human value placed on them maybe he does know better than the collective human values over millenium.
But i would suggest that precious metals are held as a hedge and insurance by many as part of a balanced portfolio.
There is no doubt that prices will fluctuate equally the price of cash fluctuates with its ability to buy less "stuff" for more cash.
Skol methinks you protesteth too much.
Who started the thread?
What's the problem with having a joke at the goldbugs' expense, especially in view of some of the hilarious arguments in favour of gold or silver?
Ask some of the posters how many kgs of of silver they've got.
I used to get the same criticism on the peak oil thread until the inevitable happened.
I put up contrarian arguments but don't get too many logical answers except:
It's a historical store of value, (Ask the punters in 1980 about that one)
It'll keep going up.
Hyperinflation's on the way.
All 'fiat moneys' are going to crash.
The printers are going none stop.
I read the FT,WSJ and Economist regularly and don't see any reference to any of the above, guess they've got it all wrong.
One thing I know for absolutely sure. Many goldbugs are amateurs and novices who don't have a memory of 1980 and a significant proportion won't have been born. They're running with the herd, oblivious to what lies ahead.
stevo1
17-05-2010, 02:21 PM
Nothing wrong with a good joke skol.
Did the FT WSJ or the Economist predict the GFC or warn in advance ?
Plenty of references to GFC after the fact though ,why it happened,whose fault it was.strangly enough until it happened these were the same journo's flogging on about the longest period of prosperity continuing .
Maybe the fact they not mentioning It's a historical store of value,
It'll keep going up.
Hyperinflation's on the way.
All 'fiat moneys' are going to crash.
The printers are going none stop.
shows its nowhere near a bubble
Gold will go up and down,as will oil,house prices in USA ,and the length of womens skirts (god bless them)
It may appeal to your logic that gold is a demand ,fear driven commodity ,bloody hard to "make" more of it .It may well be or turn into a bubble which i would suggest would put it into the same catagory as housing or the stockmarket.
Dont buy it at the top of the cycle (where is that again?) nothing wrong with contrarian view either but the trend appears to be up.
Go on skol I know you wanta buy some.
JBmurc
17-05-2010, 02:39 PM
Gold up USD up OIL down ======increasing profits for aussie gold miners
devito
17-05-2010, 02:39 PM
Who started the thread?
What's the problem with having a joke at the goldbugs' expense, especially in view of some of the hilarious arguments in favour of gold or silver?
Ask some of the posters how many kgs of of silver they've got.
I used to get the same criticism on the peak oil thread until the inevitable happened.
I put up contrarian arguments but don't get too many logical answers except:
It's a historical store of value, (Ask the punters in 1980 about that one)
It'll keep going up.
Hyperinflation's on the way.
All 'fiat moneys' are going to crash.
The printers are going none stop.
I read the FT,WSJ and Economist regularly and don't see any reference to any of the above, guess they've got it all wrong.
One thing I know for absolutely sure. Many goldbugs are amateurs and novices who don't have a memory of 1980 and a significant proportion won't have been born. They're running with the herd, oblivious to what lies ahead.
FT,WSJ and Economist report the news after the fact. I hope you don't look to them for your advise.
Gold and silver are worth having in your portfolio as insurance. I pay thousands a year for insurance for my boat, house and car so usually pick up a few sovs as another type of insurance.
Nothing wrong with a good joke skol.
Did the FT WSJ or the Economist predict the GFC or warn in advance ?
No, not in as many words but all the warning signs were there.
The Economist warned of a serious property bubble way before the crash, so they did get it right.
Obscene house prices, acronyms like 'CDO', insane, colossal amounts of debt, hedge fund 'heroes' spending millions, dumb TV programmes about property speculation, loads of ponzi schemes, cold calling, and scams like Blue Chip.
I transferred 50% of my super into cash and sold property in 2007 when I started to read about CDO's and sub-prime mortgages in the FT.
You don't have to be a genius, just watch the herd.
JBmurc
17-05-2010, 02:58 PM
one of the biggest herds worldwide is the Dollar bulls esp. the USD
Skol and JB.
Do you think inflation or deflation is on the way for 2010/11 onwards?
JBmurc
17-05-2010, 03:15 PM
Skol and JB.
Do you think inflation or deflation is on the way for 2010/11 onwards?
Inflation just checkout out the UKdebtclock or USdebtclock etc worldwide debt is increasing the only way the governments can stop their countries going bankrupt is to print trillions of cheap money in turn devaluing all moneys in people savings ....we are heading for an even bigger credit crises 2011-12
GOLD-$1240oz --$$$$$1417oz AUD wake up investors government worldwide are spending money that haven't got .....
Holy cow that USdebtclock website is cool.
So with inflation/credit crisis like you predict JB, is the ONLY investment physical gold/silver?
i reckon there is deflation occurring
its probably more important as regards this thread and gold as to whats happening in other countries than here in NZ
but if we see this graph of M3 we dont see inflation now do we ? (thanks to interest.co.nz)
shasta
17-05-2010, 03:29 PM
Holy cow that USdebtclock website is cool.
So with inflation/credit crisis like you predict JB, is the ONLY investment physical gold/silver?
ENP
No you can use "shorting" on stocks/sectors/indexes that will be affected, or make a play on a currency that benefits from a falling USD, whether it's the Yen, Euro, Yuan, whatever
Exporters do well when the US is weak, importers do well when its strong
Gold is an old nature hedge against the USD, as its seen as a safe haven
So from what you say Shasta, I should keep my money in NZD as I/exporters/NZ economy will benefit from a falling USD? Just park it in a NZ bank account?
I don't really like the idea of gold/silver as it doesn't pay any interest/dividends, but want to hedge myself against some inflation.
JBmurc
17-05-2010, 03:46 PM
The US in 2010 will payout more in benefits than receive in taxes ????
Gold/silver is going up because people with money are buying it in droves take away the massive naked shorts an have a true free market both would be much higher which they will over the next couple years -----
go to ----
---Iflation.us--- an watch meltup a 50min long clip on the worldwide credit woes with many facts the likes of Skol don't seem to understand
shasta
17-05-2010, 04:05 PM
So from what you say Shasta, I should keep my money in NZD as I/exporters/NZ economy will benefit from a falling USD? Just park it in a NZ bank account?
I don't really like the idea of gold/silver as it doesn't pay any interest/dividends, but want to hedge myself against some inflation.
Im not sure about the $NZ dollar, we tend to follow what other asian currencies do, & as im not really an FX person, i'd prefer a more direct exposure, ie, agriculture does better with a weak $US, just note the Fonterra payouts rising as an example of that.
I was posting on the NZO thread last year saying they should convert $US dollars back to $NZ, now the $US is a little steadier, it could start to turn for the better????
I'm bias towards Silver though, & would rather hold silver coins than currency
Have a look at the Perth Mint, & so many of there silver coins are completely sold out
I'm looking to accummulate silver coins, on behalf of a friend & for myself when i see some value available
When there is so much information out there with different opinions. The sharemarkets, one "expert" says they are going to crash and have evidence to back it up while another has evidence to back up that it will continue to boom.
The same is true with gold/silver prices, "experts" and data say it's in a bubble and will crash anytime soon and others are saying gold prices might go up to over $15,000 USD per oz, etc, etc.
Who do you know who to listen to, how do you decide which information is right?
Basically where I'm at right now, I feel I've missed the boat on the whole gold/silver thing and if I bought now, I would have missed the majority of the bull market. But then on the other hand, I don't want to continue to keep my money in term deposits paying histocially very low interest, some not even keeping up with inflation after tax.
JBmurc
17-05-2010, 04:33 PM
When there is so much information out there with different opinions. The sharemarkets, one "expert" says they are going to crash and have evidence to back it up while another has evidence to back up that it will continue to boom.
The same is true with gold/silver prices, "experts" and data say it's in a bubble and will crash anytime soon and others are saying gold prices might go up to over $15,000 USD per oz, etc, etc.
Who do you know who to listen to, how do you decide which information is right?
Basically where I'm at right now, I feel I've missed the boat on the whole gold/silver thing and if I bought now, I would have missed the majority of the bull market. But then on the other hand, I don't want to continue to keep my money in term deposits paying histocially very low interest, some not even keeping up with inflation after tax.
you haven't missed out yet ---watch the meltup clip an make your own mind up it's whats made me many dollars over the years listen to many but took my your own investment path
now because of my success I'm far more confident in my decisions
shasta
17-05-2010, 04:50 PM
When there is so much information out there with different opinions. The sharemarkets, one "expert" says they are going to crash and have evidence to back it up while another has evidence to back up that it will continue to boom.
The same is true with gold/silver prices, "experts" and data say it's in a bubble and will crash anytime soon and others are saying gold prices might go up to over $15,000 USD per oz, etc, etc.
Who do you know who to listen to, how do you decide which information is right?
Basically where I'm at right now, I feel I've missed the boat on the whole gold/silver thing and if I bought now, I would have missed the majority of the bull market. But then on the other hand, I don't want to continue to keep my money in term deposits paying histocially very low interest, some not even keeping up with inflation after tax.
Gold has had a great run, but as always silver has lagged.
I believe there is more upside in Silver than Gold, so for what it's worth i don't think it's too late, but iv'e been looking around for silver coins & what is out there seems to be at a premium well above the spot rate.
Disc: I am bias towards Silver ;-)
So you don't think gold will go up much further you just think that 1:10 gold.silver ratio needs silver to increase still to reach that ratio?
shasta
17-05-2010, 05:43 PM
So you don't think gold will go up much further you just think that 1:10 gold.silver ratio needs silver to increase still to reach that ratio?
Gold will keep going higher whilst India & China are buying it up, & while the US keeps printing money, & Europe has fears over the economies of Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland & Italy in particular.
The Gold to Silver ratio still seems out of whack, thats why i believe there is more upside in Silver at these levels
Gold currently is at $US1,239.50
Silver currently is at $US19.25
So the Gold to Silver ratio is ~64:1, a ratio closer to 50:1 would see Silver around $US25/oz (with Gold @ $1240/oz)
With that ratio so high, is gold overvalued or silver undervalued?
one of the biggest herds worldwide is the Dollar bulls esp. the USD
Well, like the goldbugs say, I'm happy going along for the ride.
I'd sooner place my trust in the USD and Tim Geithner than the goldbug websites.
JBmurc
17-05-2010, 06:46 PM
Gold has had a great run, but as always silver has lagged.
I believe there is more upside in Silver than Gold, so for what it's worth i don't think it's too late, but iv'e been looking around for silver coins & what is out there seems to be at a premium well above the spot rate.
Disc: I am bias towards Silver ;-)
Yeah I'm also very bias toward silver facts show silver has to go up hugely just to keep up with worldwide demand 880moz 2009 year production less than 700moz
Fact-90% of all silver thats ever be produced is gone --90% of all gold produced is in vaults,jewelry etc
--I see on the latest credit card ANZ sent me which I didn't want had a small silver chip cover on it now --how many credit cards worldwide ??
airedale
17-05-2010, 09:17 PM
:ohmy:Going almost off-topic, but not quite, I read today that a silversmith can beat out a 1 ounce silver bar to an area of 10 sq. metres. ......wafer thin of course.
There was an interesting discussion on CNBC about 3 hours ago. 3 commentators were discussing why you would (or wouldn't) buy gold.
None came up with an answer. They couldn't figure it out. Can you shave little pieces off, one opined?
Buy agriculture, property, food, or shares of Sturm Ruger reckoned another which at least pay a dividend.
Tim O'Brien, The Gold Report editor says gold is overbought and due for a severe correction, probably to around US$1000. The mighty USD will precipitate it along with other factors he says.
How do you invest in agriculture/food Skol?
Just on the stock market in agribusinesses?
JBmurc
18-05-2010, 09:54 AM
yeah an CNBC commentators are usually right like when Peter schiff was on a CNBC panel years before the GFC stating that the US property market was going to crash an the DOW would one day in the next 10yrs return to the 1:1 with the gold price (gold was 400oz-500oz)the guys on the panel laughed at Peter stated that Gold was history no one believed it held real value an the USD ,Property ,DOW would keep surging to new highs ----look up-- peter schiff was right on youtube---
Tim O'Brien, The Gold Report editor says gold is overbought and due for a severe correction, probably to around US$1000. The mighty USD will precipitate it along with other factors he says.[/QUOTE]
Unless I've got it wrong the dow/gold is 8.7/1, correct, nowhere near 1/1.
JBmurc
18-05-2010, 01:53 PM
Unless I've got it wrong the dow/gold is 8.7/1, correct, nowhere near 1/1.
no that's right but Mr schiff believe's at some time in the future years the ratio will return back to round 1:1 DOW 6000 Gold $6000oz etc
$6000 an ounce??????????
LOL.
Keep rubbing that lucky rabbits foot.
In a 2002 interview with Southland Today, Schiff predicted that the economic downtown triggered by the bursting of the stock market bubble would lead to a bear market likely to last "another 5 to 10 years."[44][45] In November of 2002, US stocks began a bull market uptrend which held steady for at least five years,[46] until reversing course in 2008, when the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 began a decline to less than half their of their peak 2008 values,[47] followed in 2009 by the Dow climbing 61% from its low point over the following year.[48] After interviewing Schiff in 2009, journalist and finance author Eric Tyson, referenced various Schiff predictions during the 2000s and stated that "On all of these counts, Schiff wasn't just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong."[49]
A January 2009 Wall Street Journal article discussed the value of Schiff's predictions, and stated how deficiencies "made mincemeat of investors who took his advice in 2008."[61] In The Wall Street Journal, on February 11, 2009 Schiff responded to his critics by saying:"My central investing premise, a weakening dollar and safety in gold, commodities and foreign stocks, didn't materialize in 2008. But all the ingredients were (and remain) present for those movements to occur. Over the past year, market reactions that I didn't foresee—massive global deleveraging, a knee-jerk 'flight to quality' into U.S. Treasuries and a sharp counter trend rally in the U.S. dollar—have kept the scenario from playing out."[69]
JBmurc
18-05-2010, 02:32 PM
The US in 2010 will payout more in benefits than receive in taxes ? fact the total unfunded forward debts of the US are over 70 trillion ? yeah the USD is safe NOT!
go ahead an invest into the USD debt notes many others are turning away leaving the FED to use free money to back up the increasing debt with no end
How do you invest in agriculture/food Skol?
Just on the stock market in agribusinesses?
Yeah, there's plenty of them, one of my preferred stocks is AAC, good one to trade, book value about $2.44.
Yeah, there's plenty of them, one of my preferred stocks is AAC, good one to trade, book value about $2.44.
Why would you invest in a company that has lost money the last two years?
The US in 2010 will payout more in benefits than receive in taxes ? fact the total unfunded forward debts of the US are over 70 trillion ? yeah the USD is safe NOT!
go ahead an invest into the USD debt notes many others are turning away leaving the FED to use free money to back up the increasing debt with no end
I watched that 50 odd minute video clip you gave me JB. I see how that even if they stop spending, keep taxing, etc, they will never be able to pay off their superannuation and medical bills. Is this why they have to inflate the currency?
Why would you invest in a company that has lost money the last two years?
I watched that 50 odd minute video clip you gave me JB. I see how that even if they stop spending, keep taxing, etc, they will never be able to pay off their superannuation and medical bills. Is this why they have to inflate the currency?
Instead of asking so many questions it might be time to do what the guys call DYOR.
Huang Chung
18-05-2010, 07:39 PM
A very interesting video from 2007.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kg7tcnPCdc&feature=related
tricha
18-05-2010, 08:13 PM
Why would you invest in a company that has lost money the last two years?
I watched that 50 odd minute video clip you gave me JB. I see how that even if they stop spending, keep taxing, etc, they will never be able to pay off their superannuation and medical bills. Is this why they have to inflate the currency?
Thats right and that's what they are doing and and will have to do for a very long time.
Print so much money they run out of trees, hence a wheel barrel full to buy a beer.
Hence gold going to $5,000 an ounce and all those fools wishing they got in early.:D
shasta
18-05-2010, 08:24 PM
Thats right and that's what they are doing and and will have to do for a very long time.
Print so much money they run out of trees, hence a wheel barrel full to buy a beer.
Hence gold going to $5,000 an ounce and all those fools wishing they got in early.:D
On TV3 news tonight showed the Chinese rush to buy gold, but the bullish article also mentioned the looney leftie George Soro's again saying gold is becoming a bubble.
Not too sure about the $5k/oz Tricha, but Chinese retail demand could see it $US1500/oz sometime this year?
Hopefully Silver could track it closer to $US30/oz
the looney leftie George Soro's again saying gold is becoming a bubble.
dont forget to mention that he says to BUY into bubbles!
Hence gold going to $5,000 an ounce and all those fools wishing they got in early.:
Dreams are free tricha.
Not only will it not be going to $5000/oz but if the Chinese government crackdown to avoid inflation and excessive speculation, it could precipitate a gold 'correction'.
On CNBC today, the risk of inflation in Europe is infinitesimal. The ECB have their hands firmly on the inflation handle and there's plenty of unemployed so wage inflation is almost out of the question.
shasta
19-05-2010, 09:15 PM
Dreams are free tricha.
Not only will it not be going to $5000/oz but if the Chinese government crackdown to avoid inflation and excessive speculation, it could precipitate a gold 'correction'.
On CNBC today, the risk of inflation in Europe is infinitesimal. The ECB have their hands firmly on the inflation handle and there's plenty of unemployed so wage inflation is almost out of the question.
Something for Skol to read, lol - nb this still has the Gold: Silver ratio @ ~60:1 (i believe this should be close to 40:1)
$1800 - $2000 gold this year - and $30 silver - James Turk
With a prediction of a $1,800 to $2,000 gold price this year, and $8,000 by 2015, James Turk sticks to his earlier forecasts in presentation at London conference.
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Wednesday , 19 May 2010
LONDON - In the closing keynote on the first full day of the 2010 World Mining Investment Conference in London yesterday, James Turk, founder of Gold Money, opened by reaffirming his prediction made at the end of last year that gold could reach $8,000 an ounce by 2015, based on past patterns of surges in the gold price.
What may be even more encouraging for the general investor is that his forecast also suggests that the Dow Jones Index would rise to similar levels as the world finally pulls out of recession, with the gold price matching the Dow index number.
When asked at the end of his talk where he felt the gold price would be at the end of the current year, he reckoned around $1,800 to $2,000 - and also predicted that the more volatile silver price would achieve a level of $30 this year.
Turk bases his forecasts very much on past performance - but even as the prediction may seem extreme, to some, the sting in the tail is that he does not see these levels in the gold price, or Dow, as suggesting real increases in wealth. Rather, such an increase would serve only as wealth preservation as the purchasing power of most currencies is devalued in a hyper-inflationary environment due to the huge volumes of fiat money being pumped into the market by governments in an attempt to stave off global recession.
He affirmed that he felt it was folly for governments to think they could spend their way out of trouble.
Turk pointed out that over the past years gold has been rising at double digit percentage levels against all major currencies - or perhaps rather that all major currencies have been devaluing against gold which he feels represents the only real money.
Silver too has risen on average against all the currencies in double digit annual percentage increases, but with rather more volatility, as proof of this Turk points out the sharp fall silver experienced in 2008 and its subsequent strong recovery in 2009.
He calls gold the ‘canary in the monetary coal mine' and he agrees with GATA that governments and Central Banks have been trying to limit gold price increases over the years, in the same way that they try to control currency fluctuations.
Turk illustrated his talk with charts and tables illustrating his key points and makes an impressive, but overall worrying, case for gold and silver given that despite the big increases he sees ahead, all he feels this will do is protect asset values, rather than increase them in real terms, which is really bad news for savers!
In other points during the presentation, Turk pointed out that there may be gains to be made in gold stocks as his charts show that the gold stock XAU index looks cheap, but cautions that gold mining stocks are not gold, but investments which brings both upside and downside risk into play in relation to the metal itself.
He also showed that over 60 years, the oil price which has risen sharply in all major currencies, has effectively been absolutely flat in terms of both gold and silver, apart from very minor short term fluctuations, as an indicator of the precious metals' wealth preservation characteristics.
gold IS overbought on the daily RSI with a coule of spinning top candles indicating uncertainty and the new high is not matched by RSI giving divergence.
So where should we short it skol ???? please put a stake in the ground re your negative sentiments.
quoting my self here from 60 hours ago
gold down USD26 an oz
those spinning tops huh ;+)
did you have your shorts in place skol?
nah me neither.
Huang Chung
19-05-2010, 11:24 PM
$1800 - $2000 gold this year - and $30 silver - James Turk
Shasta...James Turk gets a positive mention in that video I posted yesterday. Check it out if you haven't already done so.
did you have your shorts in place skol?
Don't own it, don't short it, have been acquiring some extremely boring but reasonably safe stuff like AAC and TLS lately.
Something that really stands out just recently, the number of goldbugs who say "it's different this time".
Aaaahhhhhh, yeah, right.
Gold down 60 Euros in 36 hours, a record decline.
Is this 'it'?
The WSJ today puts an end to the myth that China has accumulated huge amounts of gold.
China has 1054 metric tons, a miniscule part of its foreign exchange reserves.
You could put that into a small hotel room.(on the bottom floor though).
trackers
20-05-2010, 01:52 PM
The WSJ today puts an end to the myth that China has accumulated huge amounts of gold.
China has 1054 metric tons, a miniscule part of its foreign exchange reserves.
You could put that into a small hotel room.(on the bottom floor though).
Hi Skol,
Yep, looks like its all over for Gold. Here's some AUD gold charts for you
1 month:
http://www.galmarley.com/ChartApp/Images/AUD_Line_1month_300x150.gif
1 year:
http://goldprice.org/charts/history/gold_1_year_o_aud.png
CPI in the USA is negative.
Deflation.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRncLJnloJc
Headlines in todays WSJ.
'Inflation at 44 year low.'
Huang Chung
21-05-2010, 09:41 AM
During this downturn, gold is about the only metal (or oil) that hasn't been smashed.
In oz dollar terms, it continues to rise quite nicely.
With all the soverign debt issues that will be felt for years to come, gold isn't going to crash anytime soon.
During this downturn, gold is about the only metal (or oil) that hasn't been smashed.
In oz dollar terms, it continues to rise quite nicely.
With all the soverign debt issues that will be felt for years to come, gold isn't going to crash anytime soon.
Are you sure? It's still headed south.
Sell gold and buy cows.
Overall, US companies are in good financial shape and the USD is still the worlds reserve currency. Punters are going to buy US stocks, USD up, gold down.
Huang Chung
22-05-2010, 11:05 AM
Are you sure? It's still headed south.
Sell gold and buy cows.
No Skol, I won't be heading down to the farm anytime soon. Agriculture is a sector that has shown great promise, but always seems to under deliver.
Gold is still holding quite well, and I would expect it to stay north of $1,000 for quite a while. This will be a very nice backdrop for PIR, which is the gold stock I'm backing (I don't hold physical gold).
JBmurc
22-05-2010, 11:14 AM
During this downturn, gold is about the only metal (or oil) that hasn't been smashed.
In oz dollar terms, it continues to rise quite nicely.
With all the soverign debt issues that will be felt for years to come, gold isn't going to crash anytime soon.
Has been a real bonus for ASX gold producers even though they have still been sold down by the fearfull market added bonus is the Oil price like the AUD also heading down so the likes of NAV with predicted costs of $800oz AUD may well be closer to $700oz an with the AUD goldprice now over $1400 many producers will be reaping in million's of more profits
Add the fact Inflation is at it's lows an ready to hit it straps soon AUD gold could well even surprise the Gold Bulls
"Gold will seem to be a hedge at first, but will ultimately crash in mid/late 2010"
Quote, Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave International and best seller of Conquer the Crash.
shasta
22-05-2010, 10:57 PM
"Gold will seem to be a hedge at first, but will ultimately crash in mid/late 2010"
Quote, Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave International and best seller of Conquer the Crash.
If you look hard enough ENP you will find gold bulls & gold bears everywhere.
With the problems in Europe, & the US printing money, & the Indians & Chinese buying up Gold, in the short term its only going one way & thats up...
Well looks at what people are doing now days. They are paying off their debt, not spending on big new ticket items. So if no one is out there spending and debt is decreasing, then the money supply will decrease, businesses will make less profits, more unemployment = deflation.
If you look hard enough ENP you will find gold bulls & gold bears everywhere.
With the problems in Europe, & the US printing money, & the Indians & Chinese buying up Gold, in the short term its only going one way & thats up...
The chinese are 'not buying up gold'.
They say over the long term (in chinese terms that could mean anything) they will increase their store of gold.
Currrently they own 1054 metric tons which is absolutely infinitesimal in relation to their foreign currency reserves.
JBmurc
23-05-2010, 08:49 AM
"Gold will seem to be a hedge at first, but will ultimately crash in mid/late 2010"
Quote, Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave International and best seller of Conquer the Crash.
there's a crash coming alright but it's not going be GOLD or any other metal or commondites it's going to be to do with the easy credit central banks have been making trillions of --yes we will not go back to a USA gold stardard like pre-73 gold would have to be priced in the 000,000 to back all the masses of fiat curreniecs created.
The evolving Euro crisis is expanding and deteriorating rapidly. In only one week since the $1 trillion EU proposed bailout, the following happened:
Merkel’s party got creamed in the regional German elections last week. This is paralyzing Germany politically.
UK’s Brown resigned and Cameron took over.
France’s Sarkozy threatened to pull out of the Euro and banged his fist on the table, making Merkel blink and leading to their disastrous German elections.
Now Germany bans short sales on Banks and CDS and sovereign bonds – revealing the panic out there in the EU.
EU is in total chaos politically, they cannot solve this crisis with their many nations who must approve each major fiscal measure like bailouts. The ECB and EU are not capable of the quick unilateral action like the Fed is capable of – meaning they are always behind the curve on this rapidly EU escalating sovereign bond crisis, which is spreading now to EU banks and CDS, not only sovereign bonds, and spreading to the Euro.
They say the Euro has never been tested severely like this since its inception in 1999/2000. The test is a huge FAIL. The Euro is falling in an out of control way.
ECB’s Trichet had to relent and do the nuclear option to buy bad paper (bonds etc) off the Greeks for starters. ECB loses huge credibility.
Net effect of the political and financial failures is huge uncertainty for the Euro and the EU.
This all leads to a Lehman like contagion, which is now in process. It’s all out of control.
EU and ECB are only reacting to this mess and are they not in control at all.
Contagion is spreading to all financial markets, and appears unstoppable.
Electronic trading and ETFs cause liquidity to dry up in minutes to zero (means crashes are not controllable whatsoever).
EU countermeasures are too late and are panicky – (they have lost control of the Euro and debt situation). Derivatives (like ETFs) have made markets highly susceptible to huge flash crashes. Attempts to counteract this only makes things worse. Markets are now totally out of control as circuit breaker measures in one market are merely circumvented by others moving to alternative markets/exchanges where they can still trade.
This list goes on but you get the idea.
Overall, you can say that the US housing crisis spread to the US financial system first, The US blew up first, but now the others with the same problems (EU) are breaking down, and as the world tried to reflate financial markets and succeeded with public money, that is now over and the new outcome is the EU region is the next ‘Lehman’ style crisis, but it’s a crisis of the biggest economic aggregate in the world the EU (Yes it’s bigger than the US).
Since Germany just acted unilaterally to ban short sales in the Sovereign bond market and CDS, it indicates a lack of EU financial coordination. Germany never wanted to do this bailout, and is dragging its heels, making any attempts at countermeasures too late to increase confidence. (CDS by the way have been the ONLY real market with real pricing for the last several years, and the CDS markets always led to the final deterioration and final ‘verdict’ before the crises of the day spiraled out of control. CDS are bets on debt defaults, their prices reflect the reality. Hitting the CDS market takes away any remaining market transparency. Now all markets are being hidden inside huge public purses).
What this means for markets
Overall, this means that the EU is in serious trouble. It means the EU has shown they cannot contain this situation. It probably means the Euro is going down to parity with the USD at least. If the situation is not brought under control, the EU itself is threatened, and imagine what would happen to the Euro if Germany or anyone bolts the EMU (Euro monetary union). The Euro would collapse.
The USD benefits, the carry trades are unwinding (USD, Yen and others). Gold benefits because it’s a major haven, even with the USD rallying hard and commodities tanking. Gold can still get dragged in if there is a huge world stock sell off, so be cautioned.
US markets benefit as money flees into the US, but still US markets are continuing to drop – this is hugely bearish.
Three weeks ago, we told subscribers that the Dow peaked at 11,000. The Dow peaked at about 11200. It looks like that call is going to hold up.
With Asian and EU markets down, commodities tanking due to expected economic slowing, and US markets down and looking to continue falling, and China already in the early stages of popping their construction bubble (60% of China GDP is construction related) there are no bright spots out there. The US recovery will stall and is stalling now.
JBmurc
23-05-2010, 08:54 AM
'Sovereign Debt' was a phrase only found in the arcane prose of economists writing in academic journals until relatively recently. Since the 2008 near death experience of many large banks, internet blogs carried commentary on the subject, but only very recently has the mainstream media tuned into the issue of sovereign debt. Quite simply, they could not ignore the omnipresent financial clouds any longer.
What is 'Sovereign' Debt?
In its simplest form, ' sovereign' debt means 'government' debt, the financial debt of a country. It usually also means the accumulated debts of government sub entities such as states, provinces, municipalities, agencies, boards and commissions for which the senior government is ultimately responsible.
While existing government debt is the problem for today, contingent liabilities for promises of future services to its citizens dramatically complicates the current debt problem. Unfunded future liabilities are obligations which represent the one ton gorilla peering through the front window of many nations.
What does Debt 'Default’ Mean?
'Default' is a word similar to the word ‘bankrupt’ when referring to the inability of a private individual, business or institution which fails to meet its financial obligations. When debt is unable to be repaid, a formal declaration of this fact triggers a bankruptcy in a court of law. In the case of government, the inability to pay its accumulated debt from past spending, because it can’t raise adequate taxes or borrow additional funds means that government has become insolvent and thus forces a formal default on its debt.
Which Countries are Likely to Default on their Debt?
Daily revelations about the debt travails of Greece has trained the debt spotlight on other nations which are infected by a similar set of debilitating financial symptoms. Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain have boarded Greece’s sinking ship. These PIIGS are increasingly characterized as merely the frontrunners in a European marathon which could easily involve many more nations before long. But these five Euro member nations are only a small part of the sixteen Euro countries which are shackled by the constraints of a single currency. While Germany, Holland and a few other countries seem financially sound, many other members aren’t so well endowed.
To the Euro club can be added many other countries belonging to the larger European Union economic zone as well as select former Soviet satellite nations of Eastern Europe. More surprisingly still is how vulnerable certain very large first world economies have become. While it seems implausible, the United Kingdom, Japan and the United States are also rapidly attaining the unflattering attributes of the PIIGS, which means they too could be snared into the debt and default trap before it snaps shut!
What Makes Countries Susceptible to Debt Default?
Too much debt, but what is too much? Annual deficits exceed 3% of the Gross Domestic Product is the standard the European Central Bank sets for its 16 ‘Euro’ member countries. 25 of 27 European nations are currently running annual deficits in excess of 3% of GDP. Ireland is at 14.3 %, France stands at 8% and Germany is at 6%. Greece stands at 12.5% of GDP. What this means is that government spending continues to escalate rapidly while their economies, upon which taxes are levied, are far less robust.
Debt accumulated from excessive spending in previous years is the cause of the looming financial crises. Economists Reinhart and Rogoff recently published comprehensive new research covering two hundred years of economic history which concluded that countries which reached debt levels of 90% of their GDP, rapidly descended into the flames of default hell. Many of the nations noted above are already close to this level of debt while others are turbo charging toward the 90% precipice of no return.
Given that current interest rates are at multigenerational lows, it seems entirely plausible that when interest rates start rising, the burden of higher interest rates on the bonds issued to secure additional borrowed funds, will become virtually unserviceable. If interest rates were to double from their current 3% levels on 10 year maturing bonds or double from the current 5% on 30 year bonds, most of these nations would very quickly reach the brink of default.
What are the Common Characteristics of Debt Default Candidates?
With the exception of Japan and the United States, all other default candidates are European. Many have advanced first world economies with high standards of living. Most share political traditions and values whereby the welfare state ensures high living standards and guarantees protection and security against most of life’s challenges for their citizens. Cradle to grave security requires ever higher levels of savings and investments which result in wealth generation and serves as a growing tax base sufficient to deliver on promises of current and future benefits, especially with the universal demographic of rapidly aging populations.
Virtually all countries subject to concerns about default show shortfalls in economic growth resulting in anaemic tax revenues requiring more credit and borrowing in order to compensate. Now that credit is either tightening or isn’t available and interest rates are rising again, this game of spend and borrow is about to end.
Can Debt Default be Avoided?
We are all faced with a daily deluge of metaphors by virtue of media coverage of the evolving financial carnage in Greece. “Dominos’, ‘Deck of Cards’, ‘Greek Contagion’, ‘Greece is the Precedent’ and ever more alarming and inventive terms.
We might remember the alarm we experienced less than 2 years ago when the largest investment banks seemed to be taking the entire world into a financial abyss. Over US $700 Billion was allocated immediately by the U.S. Congress to the Treasury Secretary for whatever mitigation measures were thought necessary. The Federal Reserve Board followed with many other exceedingly inventive measures costing US $Trillions of borrowed taxpayer dollars designed to lubricate creaky financial joints. This was government bailing out private institutions in the financial sector.
What happens, however, when governments themselves require emergency financial assistance? Greece represents only 2.5 percent [%] of the Euro club GDP economy, yet it has taken weeks to arrange US $140 Billion of assistance. What happens when countries with much larger economies and needs ask for assistance? The International Monetary Fund is making itself visible, but after the recent levy on member nations, they have only managed to bring their kitty from US $50 to $500 Billion. Spain, Italy or the UK could mop that amount up in short order. Then what? Financially broken nations will be funding other financially broken nations. That is what the almost US $1 Trillion joint Euro/EU/IMF hurried announcement of Sunday May 8th represents. Does that seem like a workable plan? What happens when the banks who are creditors of these nations line up for assistance again, as they did in late 2008? Who bails them out this time when their own governments are broke?
A cynic might even suggest that sovereign debt bailouts are not primarily designed to assist nations nearing default. Rather financial assistance to nations simply allows them to pay their obligations to their foreign bank creditors who hold the bonds of the nations nearing default. In other words, collective efforts from the likes of the French, German, British, Spanish governments and others, is merely an elaborate ruse to keep their own banks solvent from the impending default of other nations.
The staid and highly regarded Bank of International Settlements based in Switzerland recently issued a sobering report in which it stated the need for “drastic measures...to check the rapid growth of current and future liabilities and reduce the adverse consequences of long term growth (of debt) and monetary instability.” It went on to note that there is currently over US $600 Trillion of global financial Derivatives Debt...which is 10X annual global GDP.
What Does the Future Hold?
The magnitude of current private and government debt, coupled with massive unfunded contingent liabilities for promises of future services to their citizens, is simply impossible for many nations to fund. Massive inflation in the money supply will become the preferred vehicle to deflect the default monster, but it will result in vastly devalued currencies and price inflation as a prelude to default. Their objective is to buy time to stave off the inevitability of default. Buying time might also allow the tooth fairy time to arrive with a magic solution.
Standby for a daily diet of social unrest caused by persons whose comfortable lifestyle and elevated standard of living is about to disintegrate before their eyes.
Protect yourself with precious metals investments. Gold and silver in the form of bullion or mining company shares will give you peace of mind. They are 'real money' and will be your safe haven during the very financially troubled and volatile period ahead. Further complement such investments with other commodities such as base metals, oil and gas and agricultural grains - all of which are investments which will shield you from inflation and currency devaluations but steer clear of fixed interest rate investments.
Arnold Bock
Phaedrus
23-05-2010, 10:14 AM
I hesitate to add fuel to the gold debate and view "cut and paste" postings as evidence of intellectual bankruptcy - but take a look at this chart from chartoftheday.com :-
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/DowGold.gif
For the last 10 years gold has been a better investment than US stocks. Pre 2000, stocks were better than gold. Interesting chart eh?
Correct Phaedrus, but have a look at 1980/2000.
The Dow was a better investment than gold for those 20 years and gold pays no dividend.
Since stocks have been a lousy investment for the last decade it's reasonable to assume they have to do better in this decade.
STRAT
23-05-2010, 10:55 AM
Correct Phaedrus, but have a look at 1980/2000.
The Dow was a better investment than gold for those 20 years and gold pays no dividend.
Since stocks have been a lousy investment for the last decade it's reasonable to assume they have to do better in this decade.Why is that Skol. What goes up for 20 years surely could go down for 20?
Why is that Skol. What goes up for 20 years surely could go down for 20?
Could do but I doubt it.
When gold goes up the scams increase exponentially, more than any other investment, and you can bet there's plenty under way right now.
Gold is up ostensibly because paranoid Germans and Austrians who were never alive during the Weimar Republic are buying it. Apparently they just can't get over it. It's about as much sense as harking back to the great railroad and electricity company crashes of the 19th century.
Gold is a risky punt and when the tide turns it could be a flood.
Like I've said before you can't eat it, no dividend, costs to store it, and very risky to store at home.
elZorro
23-05-2010, 12:52 PM
Could do but I doubt it.
When gold goes up the scams increase exponentially, more than any other investment, and you can bet there's plenty under way right now.
Gold is up ostensibly because paranoid Germans and Austrians who were never alive during the Weimar Republic are buying it. Apparently they just can't get over it. It's about as much sense as harking back to the great railroad and electricity company crashes of the 19th century.
Gold is a risky punt and when the tide turns it could be a flood.
Like I've said before you can't eat it, no dividend, costs to store it, and very risky to store at home.
The chart from Phaedrus' post shows with a very high probability that overall, shares are a bad punt relative to gold price/oz for the next period of time. There is no escaping that conclusion Skol. You're also being a bit pessimistic about the gold opportunities that are out there.
Instead of buying raw gold, which I agree has some issues when it comes to dividends etc, using leverage with gold mining companies is a very good idea in these times IMHO. They are storing the gold for you, will pay dividends, their share prices will proportionally do better than gold price increases (yes, there is the opposite effect to take into account).
It's about as much sense as harking back to the great railroad and electricity company crashes of the 19th century.
Nevermind those....whats the price of Tulip bulbs doing??? [:P]
elZorro
23-05-2010, 03:36 PM
I hesitate to add fuel to the gold debate and view "cut and paste" postings as evidence of intellectual bankruptcy - but take a look at this chart from chartoftheday.com :-
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/DowGold.gif
For the last 10 years gold has been a better investment than US stocks. Pre 2000, stocks were better than gold. Interesting chart eh?
Heh, heh :) Phaedrus, I like both the graph and the turn of phrase. Except it looks like many of us are intellectually bankrupt. At least we're doing some reading and trying to understand this economy we're living in. Maybe there is no economy, has anyone ever seen it? :confused:
Instead of buying raw gold, which I agree has some issues when it comes to dividends etc, using leverage with gold mining companies is a very good idea in these times IMHO. They are storing the gold for you, will pay dividends, their share prices will proportionally do better than gold price increases (yes, there is the opposite effect to take into account).
I've yet to see it . Only the very brave or very stupid would leverage gold shares. Someone like the punter they call 'Steel Balls'.
Have a look at a few gold charts. Perhaps we could start with tricha's 'insurance' as he calls it FML. Enough to make a grown man cry.
Or NAV if you like, the one that's going through the roof 'any day now'.
Or how about NCM & RSG?
These are gold's heydays, where's the payoff?
Perhaps the shares know something you don't.
Shares try to look into the future.
12 for 10 bucks at the market
Why is that Skol. What goes up for 20 years surely could go down for 20?
There are only 2 periods since 1900 when the DJIA has declined or stagnated for an extended period.
Following the great crash of 1929 the DJIA never regained that level until 1954.
The other was 1966 until 1982, so I'll put my money on the DJIA outperforming gold this decade.
elZorro
23-05-2010, 05:38 PM
I've yet to see it . Only the very brave or very stupid would leverage gold shares. Someone like the punter they call 'Steel Balls'.
Have a look at a few gold charts. Perhaps we could start with tricha's 'insurance' as he calls it FML. Enough to make a grown man cry.
Or NAV if you like, the one that's going through the roof 'any day now'.
Or how about NCM?
These are gold's heydays, where's the payoff?
Perhaps the shares know something you don't.
Shares try to look into the future.
OK Skol, I had a look, two of those miners can't be producing much, and NCM must be overvalued. That doesn't change the argument, I'm not talking about leveraging gold shares as you imply. The shares are naturally leveraged. Once a miner has established the equipment and has a large hard-rock site to work with, say, the recovery price per ounce is fairly fixed. So any increase in POG above their breakeven is pure profit.
They can choose to mothball a site if the POG drops too far, but the money is still sitting there in the ground, usually held safe by their permit.
I could try arguing the point more - and I see others have tried - but I'm more interested in what happened with OGC. Why was it so undervalued, will it keep improving, and what will the POG do in the near future. I'm sure there will be plenty of good-sized miners that will show a good performance over the last few months too. Have your shares done better than OGC over the last year?
Have your shares done better than OGC over the last year?
Something of a moot point, not apples with apples since I don't own gold shares. I did own RSG a few years back but glad I don't now.
I bought VBA for 20c and sold them for loads more. While everybody's suffering at the moment, including me, the goldbug share fans should be buying new cars and having champagne breakfasts.
Why aren't they?
elZorro
23-05-2010, 06:00 PM
Something of a moot point, not apples with apples since I don't own gold shares. I did own RSG a few years back but glad I don't now.
I bought VBA for 20c and sold them for loads more. While everybody's suffering at the moment, including me, the goldbug share fans should be buying new cars and having champagne breakfasts.
Why aren't they?
Because I think we all bought/sold too quickly, were happy to have a 10% or 20% gain, when the underlying stats were so much better, if you assumed the POG would keep increasing. It was also important to find an undervalued miner with good production, greenfields explorers are more exciting but riskier.
I have found that it's better to spend the time analysing a well-established company than a start-up.
JBmurc
23-05-2010, 06:14 PM
If your'd brought mill of OGC back in 20-30c not all that long ago your'd have a NICE profit -no air-line would get close to a 1500%+ return
As for NAV keep it on your watchlist when it's 50c+ I'll be drinking your champagne Skol LOL
If your'd brought mill of OGC back in 20-30c not all that long ago your'd have a NICE profit -no air-line would get close to a 1500%+ return
As for NAV keep it on your watchlist when it's 50c+ I'll be drinking your champagne Skol LOL
I think Phaedrus got it right on NAV.
Go back 3 years when it was $1 and draw a line.
Cut your losses JB.
Gold's gone up all that time and NAV's declined.
Like the new Egyptian tank they've just built, one forward gear and six reverse.
JBmurc
23-05-2010, 08:21 PM
I think Phaedrus got it right on NAV.
Go back 3 years when it was $1 and draw a line.
Cut your losses JB.
Gold's gone up all that time and NAV's declined.
Like the new Egyptian tank they've just built, one forward gear and six reverse.
Well I paid 12.5c so am more to hold ,time will tell if NAV will be a successful they have only just started production so the past is the past when NAV didn't even own the Brozwing mine
elZorro
23-05-2010, 08:55 PM
I have just had a look at NAV too, not a bad looking share JB, the market must be waiting for a look at the bank balance, when it's obvious they're going to do well quickly. Had a look at the broker's recommendation in 2009 on their website, have you had a look at PRU? Not producing bigtime yet, but their chart over the last 2 years looks just like OGC, and there's been a lot of interest lately.
JBmurc
23-05-2010, 10:08 PM
I have just had a look at NAV too, not a bad looking share JB, the market must be waiting for a look at the bank balance, when it's obvious they're going to do well quickly. Had a look at the broker's recommendation in 2009 on their website, have you had a look at PRU? Not producing bigtime yet, but their chart over the last 2 years looks just like OGC, and there's been a lot of interest lately.
yeah NAV is looking like it will be producing right when AUD gold price is making new highs ,I also hold ARD CVX Gold silver explorers will have a look at PRU
Huang Chung
24-05-2010, 11:40 AM
JB, being keen on silver, have you had a look at Silver Mines Limited (SVL)?
Interesting drilling update from a few days ago:
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01065354
PS...don't know anything about them, just thought this result might be of interest to you.
JBmurc
24-05-2010, 11:48 AM
JB, being keen on silver, have you had a look at Silver Mines Limited (SVL)?
Interesting drilling update from a few days ago:
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01065354
PS...don't know anything about them, just thought this result might be of interest to you.
Yeah I'm keeping an eye on SVL current paper losses no too keen on selling any of my shares if PEN spikes high on good Fes study I might reduce an have some funds to invest
SVL much like ARD has massive potential mid term easy silver will be all but gone by the end of this decade after thosands of years of mining
tricha
25-05-2010, 03:25 PM
It will not take much for it to happen in the current economic climate.
Gold bulls dig in for big rally
<LI class="byline first ">Nicholas Larkin <LI class="source ">From: The Australian (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/)
May 25, 2010 12:00AM
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Email (?subject=Gold bulls dig in for big rally (TheAustralian Article)&body=TheAustralian%0A%0AGold bulls dig in for big rally%0A%0AFrom: TheAustralian%0AMay 25, 2010%0ASPECULATORS are buying gold faster than the world's biggest producers can mine it, as analysts forecast a 27 per cent rally that may extend the longest run of annual gains since at least 1920.%0AAlternatively, you can copy and paste this link into your browser: %0Ahttp://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/gold-bulls-dig-in-for-big-rally/story-e6frg8zx-1225870782811)
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SPECULATORS are buying gold faster than the world's biggest producers can mine it, as analysts forecast a 27 per cent rally that may extend the longest run of annual gains since at least 1920.
Exchange-traded products (ETPs) backed by bullion added 42.5 tonnes in the week to May 14, the most in 14 months, data from UBS shows.
China, Australia and the 16 other largest mining nations averaged weekly output of 42.3 tonnes last year, researcher GFMS estimates. Even though prices have fallen 5.8 percent to $US1177.10 from a record $US1249.40 an ounce May 14, the median prediction in a Bloomberg survey of 23 traders, analysts and investors is that it will reach $US1500 by the end of the year.
Buying accelerated as the MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations' stocks tumbled as much as 16 per cent since mid-April and the euro weakened to a four-year low against the US dollar. Holders of ETPs, including George Soros and John Paulson, accumulated a record 1921 tonnes by May 14, eclipsing all but four of the biggest central-bank holdings.
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China buys more iron ore (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,,26972059-36418,00.html) The Australian, 11 Apr 2010
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"You could see gold go up another $US1000," said Evan Smith, who helps manage $US2 billion ($2.4bn) at US Global Investors in San Antonio. "All of the turmoil and problems we've seen in Europe is just another reminder that there's a lot of value in gold as a safe haven," he said.
The risk to gold bulls lies in economic growth, which should buoy the prospects of metals linked to industrial demand, such as copper and silver. The world economy would expand 4.2 per cent this year, the International Monetary Fund said April 21, raising its January projection from 3.9 per cent.
Astor Asset Management, with $US520 million under management, held as much as 10 per cent of its assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETP backed by bullion, according to Bryan Novak, managing director of the Chicago-based company. The firm sold the stake in the first quarter.
China, the biggest consumer of industrial metals, will expand 10.1 per cent this year, more than three times the pace of the US's anticipated 3.2 per cent gain, according to as many as 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
"The feeling now is as we move into the expansion phase of economic growth, we want to be diversified in economically sensitive metals," Novak said. "We're not negative on the economy now."
While gold is favoured by investors when the US dollar weakens and inflation gains, the metal can also advance at other times. Gold rose 5.8 per cent in 2008 as US consumer prices gained 0.1 per cent. The metal added 18 per cent in 2005 when the US Dollar Index, a measure against six counterparts, advanced 13 per cent. Gold rose 7.3 per cent this year as the US Dollar Index jumped 9.6 per cent. US consumer prices dropped in April. "People are afraid of the debasement of all the currencies," said Peter Schiff, president and chief global strategist for Darien, Connecticut-based Euro Pacific Capital. "What's surprising is that gold is still as low as it is," he said, predicting $US5000 to $US10,000 an ounce in the next five to 10 years.
Buying rose as European policymakers agreed on $US1 trillion emergency loan package to prevent sovereign defaults.
Gold is still at half the peak set in 1980, after adjusting for inflation. Then, prices rose to $US850, equal to $US2266 today.
Supply from mines, which peaked in 2001, fell in five of the last eight years, data from London-based GFMS show. Companies are digging deeper to extract dwindling reserves, with mines in South Africa extending as far as 3.8km down.
Investment, including bars and coins, almost doubled to 1901 tonnes last year, exceeding jewellery demand for the first time in three decades, according to GFMS. Jewellery will jump 19 per cent to 2100 tonnes this year and industrial use 8 per cent to 398 tonnes, Sydney-based Macquarie Group says.
Central banks and governments are also buying gold, adding 425.4 tonnes last year, for a combined 30,116.9 tonnes.
BLOOMBERG
elZorro
25-05-2010, 04:03 PM
Tsk Tsk Tricha, verging on "intellectually" and "bankrupt" with that post.
Just joking!! ;) Good points in there, I wasn't aware that mine outputs have been dropping. Fundamentally the POG can't rise to ridiculous levels, but even US$1500/oz would be wildly profitable for most miners with a decent reserve grade ore. Lots of upside and not really a great deal of downside.
elZorro
26-05-2010, 08:25 AM
An article written on May 18, as the POG spiked.
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/precious-metals-and-gems/money-morning-gold-price-short-term-fallback-02004.aspx
Amongst other things, the writer Dominic Frisby comments:
Now, I am not calling a top here by any manner of means. I remain wildly bullish about gold in the long-term and think we are eventually going to go back to some kind of botched gold standard as the only solution to this ballooning monetary crisis that just won't go away.
The article looks at both sides of the POG argument. Looks like the next few days are going to be tricky to deal with.
tricha
26-05-2010, 11:07 AM
An article written on May 18, as the POG spiked.
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/precious-metals-and-gems/money-morning-gold-price-short-term-fallback-02004.aspx
Amongst other things, the writer Dominic Frisby comments:
The article looks at both sides of the POG argument. Looks like the next few days are going to be tricky to deal with.
WELL El Zorro, all I know is @ $1452.80 an ounce, OZ gold producers should be making good coin, if the world market tanks and paper money as we know is just that, paper. Something tangable will need to be again, hence gold and silver come back into the mix.
So a little bit of gold is a good piece of insurance in these troubling times.
So a little bit of gold is a good piece of insurance in these troubling times.
FML good insurance? Maybe you've capitulated tricha.
elZorro
26-05-2010, 03:36 PM
WELL El Zorro, all I know is @ $1452.80 an ounce, OZ gold producers should be making good coin, if the world market tanks and paper money as we know is just that, paper. Something tangable will need to be again, hence gold and silver come back into the mix.
So a little bit of gold is a good piece of insurance in these troubling times.
Yes, especially miners with plenty of production right now, so they can cash in on the low exchange rate, and high POG. I think the grades of ore, on average, for each miner would be an interesting comparison. Otherwise you have to wait until they report on profit.
The POG has broadly advanced all day, and gone up $20 to US$1205/oz. This is all fine for goldies, but a bit worrying, no?
elZorro
26-05-2010, 09:22 PM
Gold spotted heading for US$1215, climbing vertically..:(
It looks like there is a lot of gold being bought in London this evening, and towards the end of most trading sessions. From what I have read, this is not a good sign for most equities. Any comments out there? This thread should have a bit more traffic.
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/DW/X
Huang Chung
26-05-2010, 11:01 PM
It looks like there is a lot of gold being bought in London this evening
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/DW/X
Yeah, I say Skol has finally seen the light and decided to buy....
Yeah, I say Skol has finally seen the light and decided to buy....
Why not wait 1-2 years until all asset classes go on a 50% or more sale and buy then. Everyone loves a bargain. Buy for value instead of price.
Yeah, I say Skol has finally seen the light and decided to buy....
ETF's - fraught with danger.......
Physical gold - too illiquid.......
Gold shares - aaahhhhh, yeah right!
tricha' 'insurance' is FML. He needs insurance for his insurance.
I know it's not your fault goldbugs that it's not $10,000oz, it's the IMF, ECB, Ben Bernanke, the Fed, and last but not least, those thieving 'banksters'.
LOL
COLIN
27-05-2010, 11:03 AM
I confess to having bought some NCM and CXC on the ASX this week. Insurance.
And just look at OGC on the NZX this morning!
elZorro
27-05-2010, 11:27 AM
I confess to having bought some NCM and CXC on the ASX this week. Insurance.
And just look at OGC on the NZX this morning!
Hi Colin, yes, that was a pleasant result considering the earbashing 'her indoors' has been giving me for using the savings a/c. No bank is going to pay 14% interest per day.
Skol
Gold shares - aaahhhhh, yeah right!, was that you buying early on today?
Some producing miners are a no-brainer at the moment, not to say they'll stay at the same price multiples forever.
Goldbugs are trumpeting the value of gold in AUD, because the USD is appreciating against it.
Hold on, isn't the USD, according to goldbugs and JBMurc supposed to be imploding with the debt-plagued 'fiat money' headed for extinction?
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