Gold

[JBmurc]

Well some people can't agree with you skol as over the last 90 days without any announcement, stocks of gold held at Comex warehouses plunged by the largest figure ever on record during a single quarter since eligible record keeping began in 2001 some 2moz some 3 billion worth of gold was removed....

[Skol]

Yes, it's been sold, it been widely publicised.

[elZorro]

Skol, you're being choosy in your time periods again. Gold simply outperformed shares for many years on the trot.

Continuing this new research into the partial funding of the US debt by China, it looks like both parties are stuck with it in the meantime. China has dropped back its Treasury holdings by about 30%, but still has a lot of sway there. If they sold them off, they'd do damage to their own position, but they'd damage the US a lot more if everyone backed out of Treasuries.


Summary
Given its relatively low savings rate, the U.S. economy depends heavily on foreign capital
inflows from countries with high savings rates (such as China) to meet its domestic investment
needs and to fund the federal budget deficit. The willingness of foreigners to invest in the U.S.
economy and purchase U.S. public debt has helped keep U.S. real interest rates low. However,
many economists contend that U.S. dependency on foreign savings exposes the U.S. economy to
certain risks, and some argue that such dependency was a contributing factor to the U.S. housing
bubble and subsequent global financial crisis that began in 2008.
China’s policy of intervening in currency markets to limit the appreciation of its currency against
the dollar (and other currencies) has made it the world’s largest and fastest growing holder of
foreign exchange reserves, especially U.S. dollars. China has invested a large share of these
reserves in U.S. private and public securities, which include long-term (LT) Treasury debt, LT
U.S. agency debt, LT U.S. corporate debt, LT U.S. equities, and short-term debt. As of June 2011,
China was the largest holder of U.S. securities, which totaled $1.73 trillion. U.S. Treasury
securities constitute the largest category of China’s holdings of U.S. securities—these totaled
$1.16 trillion as of September 2012, but were down from their peak of $1.31 trillion in July 2011.
China’s large holdings of U.S. securities have raised a number of concerns in both China and the
United States. For example, in 2009, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao stated that he was “a little
worried” about the “safety” of China’s holdings of U.S. debt. The sharp debate in Congress over
raising the public debt ceiling in the summer of 2011 and the subsequent downgrade of the U.S.
long-term sovereign credit from AAA to AA + by Standard and Poor’s in August 2011 appears to
have intensified Chinese concerns. In addition, Chinese officials have criticized U.S. fiscal
monetary policies, such as quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, arguing that they
could lead to higher U.S. inflation and/or a significant weakening of the dollar, which could
reduce the value of China’s U.S. debt holdings in the future. Some Chinese analysts have urged
the government to diversify its reserves away from U.S. dollar assets, while others have called for
more rapid appreciation of China’s currency, which could lessen the need to hold U.S. assets.
Many U.S. policymakers have expressed concern over the size of China’s holdings of U.S.
government debt. For example, some contend that China might decide to sell a large share of its
U.S. securities holdings, which could induce other foreign investors to sell off their U.S. holdings
as well, which in turn could destabilize the U.S. economy. Others argue that China could use its
large holdings of U.S. debt as a bargaining chip in its dealing with the United States on economic
and non-economic issues. In the 112th Congress, H.R. 2166 and S. 1028 would seek to increase
the transparency of foreign ownership of U.S. debt instruments, especially China’s, in order to
assess if such holdings posed potential risks for the United States. The conference report
accompanying the National Defense Authorization Act of FY2012 (H.R. 1540, P.L. 112-81)
included a provision requiring the Secretary of Defense to conduct a national security risk
assessment of U.S. federal debt held by China. Many analysts argue that China’s holdings of U.S.
debt give it little leverage over the United States because as long as China continues to hold down
the value of its currency to the U.S. dollar, it will have few options other than to keep investing in
U.S. dollar assets. A Chinese attempt to sell a large portion of its dollar holdings could reduce the
value of its remaining dollar holdings, and any subsequent negative shocks to the U.S. (and
global) economy could dampen U.S. demand for Chinese exports. They contend that the main
issue for U.S. policymakers is not China’s large holdings of U.S. securities per se, but rather the
high U.S. reliance on foreign capital in general, and whether such borrowing is sustainable.

[Skol]

Goldman Sachs have cut their forecast for gold to $1270 in 2014.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-10/goldman-lowers-gold-price-forecast-through-2014-as-cycle-turns.html

GS recommend their clients short gold.

Gold down $27 and still going, is the final cataclysm close at hand?

[elZorro]

Goldman Sachs have cut their forecast for gold to $1270 in 2014.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-10/goldman-lowers-gold-price-forecast-through-2014-as-cycle-turns.html

GS recommend their clients short gold.

Gold down $27 and still going, is the final cataclysm close at hand? No, just a pause perhaps. Here's a good article, although no mention about the effect of US Treasuries. http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/8532912/End-of-the-golden-age

[Skol]

Right on cue the goldbugs, Peter Schiff and myriad others blame everyone else for the fall in gold.

Bernanke, the Fed, banksters, what a laugh.

If you're losing money on gold or silver it's YOUR fault, no one elses.

[Shaneoz]

I think its funny how all of you line up on one side or the other.... If you take the emotion out of it, it's just another commodity to trade.

It has been said that 106 tonnes of bullion were put up for sale in febuary. That in itself is quite a lot. Looking at the daily chart you can see the effect that that amount of gold had. Pushed it down to a major support/resistance level.

Since then gold has another 3 goes at breaking that level. It once had a false break and thats all.

Will it go through that level now? I dont know but it looks like it is receiving good support at the moment.

How much more gold in tonnes is there out there that needs a new home? I would doubt it would be that great an amount considering the yearly production levels and the fact that china and india are buying and not selling.(compared to the 106 tonnes in Feb.)

Would you believe anything that goldman sachs tells you? Lol keep a good hold on your wallet else it might be stolen while your not watching.

It always seems darkest just before dawn.

[BIRMANBOY]

If you think that's funny try this......amazing how many local experts and inside analysts post for this thread. Everyone is convinced they have the "real truth" and every other contrary poster is either totally mis-informed or suffering from delusional hysteria. Its more laughs than the comedy festival. Smoke and mirrors.
I think its funny how all of you line up on one side or the other.... If you take the emotion out of it, it's just another commodity to trade.

It has been said that 106 tonnes of bullion were put up for sale in febuary. That in itself is quite a lot. Looking at the daily chart you can see the effect that that amount of gold had. Pushed it down to a major support/resistance level.

Since then gold has another 3 goes at breaking that level. It once had a false break and thats all.

Will it go through that level now? I dont know but it looks like it is receiving good support at the moment.

How much more gold in tonnes is there out there that needs a new home? I would doubt it would be that great an amount considering the yearly production levels and the fact that china and india are buying and not selling.(compared to the 106 tonnes in Feb.)

Would you believe anything that goldman sachs tells you? Lol keep a good hold on your wallet else it might be stolen while your not watching.

It always seems darkest just before dawn.

[elZorro]

Here's an item on the evolving effect of exchange rates on economies around the world. It's loosely related to gold. This person thinks Skol is right - the US$ is not going to be removed as a reserve currency, well, not in the next decade.

http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2013/03/the-world-has-changed-the-international-monetary-system-needs-some-serious-re-thinking/

In the shorter term, I'd be looking for US$gold to ramp up a bit, as the US QE3 devalues its currency faster than others. It's on the way down already.

[skid]

Well skid, look at history, the last time gold spiked exponentially was about 1979 and it subsequently crashed. Did it recover, yes, temporarily followed by the major decline. Goldbugs will say "it's different this time" and there's always differences, but the final result is always the same in any vertical spike.

Goldbugs should be used as laboratory rats in a financial behavioural psychology experiment. It's well known that people persist with scams and huge losses even though there's overwhelming evidence that they should exit the trade or the scam. We all might learn something.

Goldbugs worldwide swear black & blue that they're right and everyone else is wrong even though it's coming up 2 years since gold peaked. It's an exercise based on hope more than anything else, but they argue it's not their fault, it's Bernanke's, the Fed, the ECB, the Rothschilds, the banksters. They are betting more than investing. They argue there's manipulation and gold suppression even though there isn't a shred of evidence to prove it and never has been, and just recently JP Morgan won a court case against losing silver investors that alleged JPM had been involved in manipulating the price.

Another flawed argument is that gold is somehow 'special', the '5000 year store of value' which is actually a fallacious assumption. Historically gold is a lousy long-term bet, it's a commodity, the price fluctuates just like pork bellies, lead or feeder cattle, but goldbugs seem to have attached a great deal of importance & emotion to the metal. I even read posts from goldbugs occasionally who admire and polish the stuff, vowing never to part with it, they're keeping it for their dotage or something, but their dotage might be poverty-stricken if they're not careful and overexpose themselves to gold which to me is nothing more than shiny metal.

They could have made a lot more money putting it in cash, term deposits, property or almost anywhere else.

Equities go through the roof but diehard goldbugs hang in there losing money hand over fist. Since gold peaked, it's down by 18%, the XJO is up 25% and the DJIA is up 33%.

In the meantime goldbugs bang on about the same recycled stuff, USD crash, euro crash, debt, we're running out of gold, Portugal, the now long dead Cyprus drama, Jim Sinclair's loony predictions, full moons, King World News, Fort Knox is empty, yadda, yadda, yadda.

A psychologists dream come true.

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/stock-charts/?CA=0&CB=0&CC=0&CD=0&D4=1&DD=1&D5=0&DCS=2&MA0=0&MA1=0&C5=0&C5D=0&C6=0&C7=0&C7D=0&C8=0&C9=0&CF=0&D8=0&DB=0&DC=0&D9=0&DA=0&D1=0&symbol=%24us%3aINX&SZ=0&PT=10

Hows that for a exponential spike

[Skol]

4434
http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/stock-charts/?CA=0&CB=0&CC=0&CD=0&D4=1&DD=1&D5=0&DCS=2&MA0=0&MA1=0&C5=0&C5D=0&C6=0&C7=0&C7D=0&C8=0&C9=0&CF=0&D8=0&DB=0&DC=0&D9=0&DA=0&D1=0&symbol=%24us%3aINX&SZ=0&PT=10

Hows that for a exponential spike

That's an exponential spike? lol

THIS is an exponential spike which is presently coming undone, and furthermore gold does nothing, zilch, companies listed on the S&P make and do real things and pay dividends.

http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2013/04/Gold-Price-Analysis-April-11-2013/19863

[Skol]

$1485

Looks like the '5000 year store of value' is becoming the '5000 year store of destitution'.

Be interesting to see what Peter Schiff, Mike Maloney, Jim Sinclair, Rick Rule and all the other psychics have to say about this. Seeing into the future is a tricky business as they're currently finding out.

There'll be some tears on the krugerrands tonight.

Wonder how many billions John Paulson's losing?

[elZorro]

I think most are admitting there's a bit of a gold selloff at the moment. The US$ is still dropping too. Here's a blogger's comment that Skol will have a scoff at. But are there elements of truth in there?
Steve Starr says: April 12, 2013 at 2:45 pm (http://www.ino.com/blog/2013/04/todays-video-update-gold-and-oil-prices-swoon/comment-page-1/#comment-161156)
Nobody wants to hold gold anymore except Russia, China, and India, and probably most of the central banks. They will be taking possession at these artificially low prices., which are created by massive naked short selling (illegal but *zero* enforcement of regulations). The objective is to shake out the market for small investors who cannot afford to hold physical.
Why do this? To maintain the three largest bubbles in history: US Treasuries, the US dollar and the US stock market. How can it be done? Unlimited creation of electronic dollars, endless Quantitative Easing, $85 billion (or more) per month to purchase unwanted Treasuries and toxic securities. Not counting supplying trillion after trillion to European dollar-swap facilities to prevent central bank collapse in Europe. Plenty of dollars made available to manipulate all markets, to provide the Plunge Protection Team the means to drive stock prices higher and higher (80%+ of all trades made by big banks, these are not small investors moving the markets), even in the face of a non-recovery and increasing unemployment (you have to look at non-governmental figures if you want the real rates for unemployment, inflation, etc). Happy Days are Here Again!! Party like its 1999.
There is, however, a limit to this process, because the BRICS nations have made extensive arrangements to bypass US dollar in trade, to eliminate the dollar as the global reserve currency. This new Eurasian trade network will include something like 3/4 of the world's population and will not include the US or the US dollar. As the dollar is progressively excluded from global trade, and US Treasuries are returned to US/Anglo bankers in the process, the end game will become clear.
Whenever the Saudis make it official that they will accept a basket of currencies, the end of the petrodollar will draw the final curtain upon the US $$$ as the global reserve currency. When the US dollar has to compete with other currencies, it will be sharply devalued, resulting in disruption of supply to the US and corresponding shortages of virtually every consumer good. Then the true value of precious metals will become evident, although it may not do US citizens much good, if they are faced with Federal dictates preventing private ownership.

[biker]

Gold now in a bear market.

http://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/precious-gold-falls-bear-market-163244384.html

[elZorro]

I think the article said that if it stays like this, it will be a bear market. But $86 down in a few hours, that's a big drop. Could it all be temporarily due to a bit of gold flooding the market from Cyprus? In which case, once that's gone, we could see a different picture.

[Skol]

The last bear market lasted for 20 years, gold closed on its lows, so technically looks like more carnage next week.

This is the curtain-raiser, the main event has still to come.

I expect gold to eventually settle below $1000, once the punters start selling the gold ETF's it could precipitate a humungous plunge, ETF's didn't exist in 1980, so no one knows exactly what's going to happen, but it won't be pretty.

In addition it's easy to short gold in the USA via short or even ultra-short stocks or mutual funds.

[JBmurc]

Wow paper gold got smashed last night ....your be doing back flips Skol ......looking forward to buying some cheap silver bullion ...

Is the fact .......

The exchange value of the dollar is (being) threatened, and if that collapses the Fed loses control over interest rates. Then the bond market blows up, the stock market blows up, and the banks that are too big to fail, fail. So it’s an act of desperation because they’ve got to establish in people’s minds that the dollar is the only safe place, it is the only safe haven, not gold, not silver, and not other currencies.

And to help protect this policy they have convinced or pressured the Japanese to inflate their own currency. The Japanese are now going to print money like the Fed. They are lobbying the ECB to print more. So I see this as a dollar protection policy.

...I know where the gold is coming from in the market, it’s just paper. It’s naked shorts, there is no gold there. If somebody wanted to take delivery on those contracts nobody would be able to provide it. I don’t know what the source of the (physical) gold is. Some people are saying that the actual stocks available for possession are rapidly declining.”

[Skol]

JB,

Heard it all before. Gold's plunging because punters are selling. That's all there is too it.

You can bang on about paper, the Fed, physical, naked shorts, contracts, ECB, the Japanese, silver, USD, 'til the cows come home, but it comes down to the fact that there's more sellers than buyers.

And it looks as if it will continue. Just like the P2 steer and lamb price has declined because of the drought, same thing, no one wants them right now.

There's no difference.

[skid]

Mario Draghi is your friend Skol
I hold as insurance but if I was trading I wouldnt be buying ATM.
He has created uncertainty and spooked the market buy insinuating Cyprus should sell their gold to show they're serious about debt reduction.
But to buy into the share market at these overbought levels IMO is also reckless.
The rug could easily be pulled out from under you.
I believe its time to keep your powder dry and forget about chasing big profits.
But it could take a while for a correction in the share market so each to their own

[skid]

In terms of the $US international currency
I believe it will eventually unravel ,but not in the short term,China has alot of skin in the game in dollars and the Saudis need Americas protection for their oil in exchange for access to that oil in dollars--
Any small country that tries to deal in other currencies [or nationalize their oil]will get hammered Militarily[sometimes behind the scenes]
Its a strange combination of economics and military might

[Skol]

HUI -6%
GDX -5.73%
GDXJ -6.92%
SLV -5.32%

Tomorrow there's gonna be a bloodbath.

[Skol]

Investor psychology is an interesting subject. I read posts by goldbugs worldwide, many of them are very fearful, but many plod on as if this is merely an inconvenience as gold spirals upwards to $10,000.

They don't believe it's possible that gold may crossed the Rubicon, that a historic rout may be at hand, they don't believe the 'mainstream' news, they prefer KWN, Jim Sinclair or Peter Schiff's explanation that gold is being suppressed by evil forces, that it's Bernanke's or the banksters fault that gold is taking a hit.

They invent absurd reasons why gold can't possibly fall too far. e.g gold can't fall too far because central banks need it. Incorrect.
Another fallacy is gold can't fall because gold mines will close. Incorrect again, the mines will close if the price falls far enough and there's no demand for gold or silver.

'Backin' the truck up' at the moment is fraught with danger. I've already seen some posts where optimistic gold bugs have bought at 'bargain basement prices', hundreds of dollars above the current price.

There have been reports of some panic in India, where gold is used for business transactions, not just jewellery or hoarding. Bearish sentiment is reported as having reached extreme levels.

Hedge and mutual fund managers will have their flak jackets on taking all necessary steps to protect their customers, their companies, themselves and their reputations, they'll be selling or shorting, catching the falling knife isn't an option.

Gold ETFs are an unknown quantity for gold because it hasn't had a major decline since their inception, but they make gold extremely liquid and a run on gold ETF's could precipitate a crash. On one day recently the GLD ETF had to sell 20.8 tonnes. One day gold or gold shares will be good buying, but who knows when, the last bear market in gold went for 20 years, this bad boy is only one day old.

If you take your gold to a dealer tomorrow, will the doors be open? What will the premium be if they are?

[Stranger_Danger]

Disc : I own no gold, gold stocks, ETF's etc.

I also agree with you about many gold bugs. There is always an excuse when it doesn't go their way, but when it does go their way, they're automatically on the side of angels?

A lot scares me about gold bugs.

However, you said

"they prefer KWN, Jim Sinclair or Peter Schiff's explanation that gold is being suppressed by evil forces, that it's Bernanke's or the banksters fault that gold is taking a hit."

Now, forget all the conspiracy theories. Ask yourself just one question.

Is it "evil" (forget about forces) to muck around with the price of money? Is it evil to double a nations money supply in no time?

And, will there be consequences to this?

I say yes, but whether gold is a partial hedge, I don't know.

I can make a case for gold, have started watching it more in the last month (nowhere NEAR buying though) but I must say, the "true believers" are actually more a reason for me NOT to buy. They kinda scare me!

[JBmurc]

Well there's extreme's on both levels I've heard guys knocking gold silver for the last decade since $300au $6-7ag now it looks like it's in a bear market and they love telling everyone how right there've been all along hey skol.....stupid gold bugs LOL even though many of us have made some good profits from it ....personal I don't hold gold bullion not when silver is by far the better bullion investment...but I do hold two gold producers,, and I wouldn't hold pure silver producers for the same reasons ...I explain below...

I hold PGI it's costs are forecast $350-400per oz CVR $700-900per oz planned ( I'm confident they turn a profit going forward gold not yet that low)

I see from many of the failing ASX Silver producers costs are higher than sales imho great reason to hold the bullion and not trying to mine it /or invest in the miners/explorers...good link below explains how silver producers will soon just have to go on C&M can't see us humans not wanting the 10,000 applications silver is used in ...yet at these prices the biggest producers are going backwards at a rate of knots..the biggest needs 31-32 to break even-http://silverdoctors.com/break-even-cost-for-silver-rises-towards-30-as-coeur-hecla-silver-standard-show-net-income-losses/

http://silverdoctors.com/2011-complete-cost-for-mining-silver/

It's all very basic ...problem is all the human emotion FEAR N GREED cloud the facts

In the mean time I'm trying to buy some more Silver bullion as cheap as possible,,, as soon as momssilvershop sort out there site issues!!!! I'm more than happy to give them my NZD for silver bullion at $28usd oz

I see trademe sales of bullion sales are ranging from $40-59oz NZD

[Skol]

In the mean time I'm trying to buy some more Silver bullion as cheap as possible,,, as soon as momssilvershop sort out there site issues!!!! I'm more than happy to give them my NZD for silver bullion at $28usd oz

I see trademe sales of bullion sales are ranging from $40-59oz NZD

You'll have plenty of opportunity to back the truck up soon, silver will fall further than gold because it's less desirable and illiquid. Goldbugs seem very fearful, I can almost smell it coming out of the screen, denying that gold can possibly fall because of the Indian Wedding Season, gold is hard to obtain, central banks are buying, the Chinese are buying (heard that one before when the peak oilers said the Chinese were buying oil, then it crashed), the Indians are buying it. lol
Desperation setting in.


http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2013/04/11/gold-teeters-on-edge-of-bigger-falls/

Gonna be interesting all right, always wondered where the money would go when the gold mania subsided, now I'm going to find out.

Investor psychology's a fascinating subject, if the worst comes to the worst JB, do what many investors do, pour yourself a few doubles and pretend it's not happening.

[skid]

With all due respect ,there are more posts about Goldbugs than there are of Gold itself.
Why the obsession with Goldbugs? Its just a side show that invites back ground ''chatter''
Whether you have bought as a safe guard or your trading,you get the best facts and info you can, and make your investment decision for better or worse,--Everything else is just static IMO

[Aaron]

Hey Skol any ideas on how far and how fast gold will fall. Below $1,000oz within a year?

[Skol]

Not sure, but the bloodbath has begun. XGD down over 10%.

[elZorro]

Not a bad leading question Aaron, but Skol was a step ahead of you:). In the last hour or two gold has dropped a lot, $70 or so, and that is coincident with the US$ not doing anything major, in fact it's dropped back a bit over the last few days, to around 0.82. So this is a short-term thing, and gold could get back up again in much the same timescale. There's some kind of a panic selloff going on, and presumably just as many are buying as selling. It's like entire countries have been pressed to pay their terminal tax or whatever. I know what that feels like.

[Skol]

Nice sugar coating EZ, this is only the curtain-raiser, you'll see some real action when the US market opens and panicked goldbugs press the SELL button on gold ETF's.

ETF's allow anyone to buy gold within the comfort of their own home, they can also sell. For some strange reason goldbugs see a difference between 'ETF gold' and real gold. There's no difference, they're both going to go down in a heap together.

You're watching history in the making, but how fast this baby goes down is anyone's guess, but probably a lot faster than 1980, because there were no ETF's then.

Also will depend on how many scams are exposed as the price drops, a la Bernie Madoff.

[elZorro]

However long it lasts, Skol (and it's on its way down again), this has a big effect on listed gold producers, who are already finding it tough, and often expend $1200 an ounce to get it refined.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/miners-crushed-gold-extends-fall-064211279.html (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/miners-crushed-gold-extends-fall-064211279.html)

Maybe you're right, and they'll all mothball their mines. But wouldn't this quickly lead to a shortage of gold and a resumption of the price trend?

P.S. Congratulations Skol, you were (eventually) correct about a downturn :).

Latest info on who is selling gold, and how much. It does appear it was a concerted attack that started on Friday, by a significant shorting faction.

http://www.emirates247.com/markets/gold/biggest-gold-price-plunge-in-30-years-gold-price-slips-to-1-350-oz-2013-04-15-1.502644


Eagle Research Advisory managing director Keith Goode said he thought the gold price could bounce back up just as quickly as it fell.
"There are comments about why banks want the gold price to go down without waving a conspiracy," he told AAP.
"It's not impossible for the banks to act as a consortium to get the gold price down so China can buy at lower levels."

[skid]

Once the dust settles-there is a fantastic buying opportunity coming up,especially for silver,if the $Kiwi and $AUS stay high.
These kind of opportunities dont come often,but best to wait for bottom.
The sharemarket is also looking vulnerable so best to keep an eye on that as well, as this spills over.

[digger]

Once the dust settles-there is a fantastic buying opportunity coming up,especially for silver,if the $Kiwi and $AUS stay high.
These kind of opportunities dont come often,but best to wait for bottom.
The sharemarket is also looking vulnerable so best to keep an eye on that as well, as this spills over.

Thanks for that one Skid.That is just what I am doing, but where is the bottom. As Skol has said many times the bottom gets picked all the way down.Look at GEL they have had three placements in the last year each one more favourable to the buyer than the last. Surely each buyer must have assurred themselves they were buying at the bottom.The most recent one was 16 cents Canadian so that makes about halved in just a little over a month. I bet the buyer of that placement is kicking himself now as much as he was chearing just after the recent placement for picking the boittom.
I hold shares in NTL as it is not producing so is not in a contractual arrangement to mine gold at what is coming up as a lossing game. Have just pulled my buy order for 100000 shares in GEL at 11.3 and will stay on the sidelines to await the bottom before I reentre.The Canadian overnight price says it should be about 10.4 cents. In the meantime I will be reading every comment here.
Thanks all for your comments and especially SKOL---saved me heaps. If we ever meet up I owe you a drink.

[Xerof]

A broken clock is right twice a day

I note gold was ~950 when skol started this thread, and took the perma-bear stance, so I would presume any gloating will be very muted on his part

just one question for you skol- are you short gold, or just providing entertainment for the small readership on this site

back to my cave, cheers

[Skol]

Xerof,

You are incorrect, on 31/12/2009 when I started this thread gold was $1100, grossly overpriced in my opinion, pushed higher by enthusiastic goldbugs who thought they had the silver bullet for the world's problems.

It was a load of hogwash perpetrated by scamsters like Mike Maloney, Glenn Beck, KWN, Jim Sinclair and heaps of others.

Sounds like you're getting your fingers burned, too bad, a quick glance at the gold chart for last 10 years would have given you a clue.

I'm not short gold but in general stocks and gold move in opposite directions, I own lots of stocks which haven't done too badly. Effectively I am shorting gold without too much risk, and it's worked.

Here she goes again, gold & silver plumbing new lows.

[Xerof]

No burning fingers here, no gold, no silver. I just pop in occasionally to see if the record is still playing

have you ever met Balance, he likes playing the same record to us all too, (but different tune)

[peat]

A clock is right twice a day


heh thats a stopped clock Xerof.

[Xerof]

Oh yeah, thanks peat. Edited original post

[Pumice]

Xerof,

You are incorrect, on 31/12/2009 when I started this thread gold was $1100, grossly overpriced in my opinion, pushed higher by enthusiastic goldbugs who thought they had the silver bullet for the world's problems.

It was a load of hogwash perpetrated by scamsters like Mike Maloney, Glenn Beck, KWN, Jim Sinclair and heaps of others.

Sounds like you're getting your fingers burned, too bad, a quick glance at the gold chart for last 10 years would have given you a clue.

I'm not short gold but in general stocks and gold move in opposite directions, I own lots of stocks which haven't done too badly. Effectively I am shorting gold without too much risk, and it's worked.

Here she goes again, gold & silver plumbing new lows.



Yep. Stores of wealth/safe havens don't lose 13.7% in 2 days. And to think Gold was ever treated as a haven or hedge....
Imagine if NZ property reacted this way (I wish).

[elZorro]

There didn't seem to be any sensible reason for the big selloff on Friday and Monday in gold, unless you look at the idea of some short insurance. That can make a big move like this very profitable. I found at least one site that shows the volume of gold trading along with the price, and you can see the drops caused by the big amount on sale, well above normal. It's now settled down to more like an ordinary day, and gold has recovered $50 in just a few hours, to around US$1380.

[Waiuta]

Once the dust settles-there is a fantastic buying opportunity coming up,especially for silver,if the $Kiwi and $AUS stay high.
These kind of opportunities dont come often,but best to wait for bottom.
The sharemarket is also looking vulnerable so best to keep an eye on that as well, as this spills over.
In your opinion, what is the best way to buy silver?

[elZorro]

I have a post for you Skol: this article in February highlights a big issue for the FED coming up: how to buy up enough gold to repatriate it to Germany as per their demand, without raising the price too much. Could this be another reason for the shorting that we've seen? http://www.globalresearch.ca/u-s-dollar-collapse-where-is-germanys-gold/5321894

[Skol]

EZ,

Peter Schiff talking a load of Schiff as usual. A discredited goldbug conspiracy theorist who along with millions of hapless goldbugs blames everyone else for his misfortune instead of cutting their losses.

Here's the reason gold is selling off. The bull market's over, it's that simple, goldbugs worldwide are grasping at straws looking for salvation but there won't be any, gold is firmly in the grip of the bear.

[elZorro]

EZ,

Peter Schiff talking a load of Schiff as usual.

Here's the reason gold is selling off. The bull market's over, it's that simple, goldbugs worldwide are grasping at straws looking for salvation but there won't be any, gold is firmly in the grip of the bear.

OK Skol, if he's wrong, why did Germany need to act politely and request their gold back over 7 years? Why did the FED refuse an audit yet again, prompting the call? Why has the recent gold selloff left obvious traces of orchestrated large amounts of gold being offered? There were no immediate reasons for it, and Cyprus has denied selling any of their gold. These were transactions that needed to be made for another reason, and bankers made the most of an opportunity for profit.

If you're right, gold will continue to fall. If goldbugs are right, it will recover steadily.

[Skol]

Gold is only worth what someone's willing to pay for it, it doesn't have a dividend like a house or a share. You've been reading too much KWN EZ, it's all crap.

Goldbugs are still banging on about banksters, Japanese bonds, the Fed, the shorters, the ECB, ad infinitum, sometimes I wonder if they know how ridiculous they sound with their endless conspiracies.

Gold moves in long cycles, this bear market will more than likely go for years, having a STD will be preferable to owning gold shortly.

Here's a cut and paste that is common sense:

'Keith Poore, head of investment strategy and management at AMP Capital NZ, warned that gold has no intrinsic value.

Trade in the metal relies on the greater fool argument to gain in value, the "theory that someone will always be willing to pay a higher price than the current investor".

Poore said investors can get much better inflation protection by investing in a basket of basic necessities such as energy, agriculture and commodities other than "some precious metal that is an inflation hedge only because we think it is".'

[elZorro]

Gold is only worth what someone's willing to pay for it, it doesn't have a dividend like a house or a share. You've been reading too much KWN EZ, it's all crap.

Goldbugs are still banging on about banksters, Japanese bonds, the Fed, the shorters, the ECB, ad infinitum, sometimes I wonder if they know how ridiculous they sound with their endless conspiracies.

Gold moves in long cycles, this bear market will more than likely go for years, having a STD will be preferable to owning gold shortly.

Here's a cut and paste that is common sense:

'Keith Poore, head of investment strategy and management at AMP Capital NZ, warned that gold has no intrinsic value.

Trade in the metal relies on the greater fool argument to gain in value, the "theory that someone will always be willing to pay a higher price than the current investor".

Poore said investors can get much better inflation protection by investing in a basket of basic necessities such as energy, agriculture and commodities other than "some precious metal that is an inflation hedge only because we think it is".' I can't believe you posted that Skol. Impartial advice from someone peddling only standard investments? Keith Poore failed to mention that gold does have an intrinsic value, below which it cannot fall. The average price of extraction to meet the new volume that is required by the market, that's the bottom line. The last two trading days have seen huge volume traded. China is a rising superpower, and the Chinese trust gold. Join the dots.

[skid]

In your opinion, what is the best way to buy silver?
Absolutely right--forgot to include IMHO--but it is easy to forget that there is a buying opportunity in a sell off.
If your buying to hopefully take advantage of a price increase,then there are pool accounts available at places like KItco[but you would have to deal with exchange rates etc.]
If you want physical silver you would have to look for the best deal locally as silver is to hard to ship.
You would have to google around--sometimes sella or trade me has boxes of 500
The physical option is more for those that have lost faith in the economy and want protection just in case.
Obviously everyone has to decide for themselves--I mostly put that post for those who may have been wanting silver but it was to expensive before.

The market is a crazy animal and I believe Gold and Silver can fall below the price of extraction--but i dont believe it can stay there.

[Skol]

I can't believe you posted that Skol. Impartial advice from someone peddling only standard investments? Keith Poore failed to mention that gold does have an intrinsic value, below which it cannot fall. The average price of extraction to meet the new volume that is required by the market, that's the bottom line. The last two trading days have seen huge volume traded. China is a rising superpower, and the Chinese trust gold. Join the dots.

Standard Investments?

Gold isn't a standard investment, it's a piece of metal you put in a safe and hope for the best, you've been brainwashed by the loonies at KWN.

Agriculture, industry, energy, real people, real companies doing real things.

John Paulson, darling of the goldbug set lost $1 billion in the last 2 days, adding to his already humungous losses.

China's buying gold, crap, that's what the peak oilers I debated with in 2008 said about oil just before the oil price collapsed 75%. It's all here, have a read. lol

[CAM]

In your opinion, what is the best way to buy silver?

http://www.momssilvershop.com/

[elZorro]

Standard Investments?

Gold isn't a standard investment, it's a piece of metal you put in a safe and hope for the best, you've been brainwashed by the loonies at KWN.

Agriculture, industry, energy, real people, real companies doing real things.

John Paulson, darling of the goldbug set lost $1 billion in the last 2 days, adding to his already humungous losses.

China's buying gold, crap, that's what the peak oilers I debated with in 2008 said about oil just before the oil price collapsed 75%. It's all here, have a read. lol


Skol, you forgot the link. Was it this one? (http://www.international-adviser.com/news/asia/chinese-investors-buy-gold-as-rest-of-world)

[Skol]

I didn't put a link up EZ, because the rumour that the Chinese are buying gold is rumour, not fact. The Chinese central bank hasn't increased its gold for years but the goldbugs will tell you that they are 'secretly' adding to their hoard.

Central Banksters have been the biggest losers of the lot, buying tonnes of gold at exorbitant prices, and the goldbugs thought it would be a good idea to emulate them, only it backfired.

Google 'John Paulson loses $1billion in 2 days' for a bit of entertainment.

[elZorro]

I did that, and I guess he hasn't 'lost' the money until he sells the shares. He's still positive overall though.
Paulson did, however, get into gold shares when the commodity was selling at $950 an ounce in April 2009. Gold futures due for delivery in June closed yesterday at $1,361.10. That means he’s still up for the lifetime of his investment, despite the prodigious losses in the last two days.

[Skol]

Paulson owns lots of gold stocks which have been pummelled. The $1b he lost in the last 2 days is in addition to the funds 28% decline this year and 25% last year.

When Paulson throws in the towel, that could be the final nail in the gold coffin.

[elZorro]

Paulson's gold stocks will have recovered a bit in the last few days though. More about the cause of the gold "shock and awe".

http://zeenews.india.com/business/bullion/bullion-news/speculators-in-futures-markets-caused-gold-price-crash-wgc_74510.html

[JBmurc]

Paulson owns lots of gold stocks which have been pummelled. The $1b he lost in the last 2 days is in addition to the funds 28% decline this year and 25% last year.

When Paulson throws in the towel, that could be the final nail in the gold coffin.

Only gold stock I brought PGI (when gold was in high 1400's) is higher than when I brought it @ 9.3c paid 9.1c looks like the gold hedge for the first three years is keeping the price solid from the fear....but I see so many others have been smashed

[elZorro]

Only gold stock I brought PGI (when gold was in high 1400's) is higher than when I brought it @ 9.3c paid 9.1c looks like the gold hedge for the first three years is keeping the price solid from the fear....but I see so many others have been smashed I think you're right JB. More about the rigged gold price, predicts what happened early this week too. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39970.html

[JBmurc]

I think you're right JB. More about the rigged gold price, predicts what happened early this week too. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39970.html

Yes I think the way forward for much higher prices esp. silver will come about not through the paper system of value but the fact of investor's not been able to buy real physical bullion anywhere near spot prices or even the major users-- Panasonic,Apple,GE,Samsung etc......will end up fighting over less production to secure the silver they demand .....production/demand for decades has met thanks to a huge amount of recycling ...the days of massive silver holdings is gone..the market is much tighter these days2

As for Gold it's all going depend on real sentiment from the buyers of phys V's the paper sellers .....as 95% of Gold is held and not used up in industry(like silver) It's movement come from mankinds belief in it's value and back up with underling costs to extract and a history that even out dates the WHEEL ....we all remember browns bottom when many seen gold as a relic .next come a major bull trend..Some say the bubbles burst I find that hard to believe when 99% people worldwide never gave a rats about Gold or silver ....like I've said before the most interest I've seen from the ASX market in Gold Silver producers/explorers was way back 05/06 ($500-$600 gold)we did have another smaller bull trend in 09/10 but these days it's about as bad as it gets in the sector ...

[elZorro]

Terry Hall has a great article about the gold price and reasons for the fall. Posted elsewhere by Toasty.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/8579941/Gold-price-collapse-hints-at-something-murky-in-markets

[stoploss]

Terry Hall has a great article about the gold price and reasons for the fall. Posted elsewhere by Toasty.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/8579941/Gold-price-collapse-hints-at-something-murky-in-markets

Whats so great about it, why can't these producers hedge the gold price by selling futures contracts ??? Also Terry talks of manipulation...pretty harsh word in todays markets , any proof take it to the regulators ......

[elZorro]

Whats so great about it, why can't these producers hedge the gold price by selling futures contracts ??? Also Terry talks of manipulation...pretty harsh word in todays markets , any proof take it to the regulators ......

I don't think there's much doubt about there being some manipulation. These were paper trades, and it's easy to set up a shorting contract to make the most of some negative noises about gold that had surfaced in the week previously. But buying at the new lower prices has been strong.

[stoploss]

I don't think there's much doubt about there being some manipulation. These were paper trades, and it's easy to set up a shorting contract to make the most of some negative noises about gold that had surfaced in the week previously. But buying at the new lower prices has been strong.


Ok so it's easy to set up a shorting contract, then the large companies that produce gold are likely to have done it , so the bit where Terry says "This is causing deep stresses for goldminers" would be wrong as these companies would have set up the contract and hedged their future sale price for their production ..........

[Skol]

Manipulation's a load of bollocks, goldbugs are always grizzling. Gold goes down, it's 'manipulation', gold doesn't go up it's 'manipulation'.

What always amuses me is that goldbugs own something that's being allegedly being 'manipulated'.
Why would you do that?

[JBmurc]

Manipulation's a load of bollocks, goldbugs are always grizzling. Gold goes down, it's 'manipulation', gold doesn't go up it's 'manipulation'.

What always amuses me is that goldbugs own something that's being allegedly being 'manipulated'.
Why would you do that?

Well thats your opinion skol fact is the biggest sell-off in Gold in 30yrs happen in such a way to show it was purely done to push the price down with only a few massive orders some 500ton which in turn hit stop-losses ....mass media & Government jumped on the ban-wangon and talked up major crash in PGM ...Fact is buying of the real PGM has never been stronger 50:1 buyers to sellers stated in the US(U.S. retail buyers bought 63,500 ozs of gold American eagles from the U.S. mint. This is by far a one-day record.... etc .....why aren't there sellers lining outside the bullion shops SKOL ?? I talked to three major bullion sellers "NZ mint" etc...last week was the busiest this year....you remember last time Gold crashed (you go on about it enough) whats going on ? if it's next to worthless ....I don't think the masses believe you or the Governments Anti-PGM stance

[JBmurc]

Looks like GOLD is just not going play the game the Naked shorters want (which is for the world to drop it like it's the early 80's crash all over again...) Sorry not happening after billion fiat dollars thrown at it.....back it comes $1435oz

[Skol]

Nothing goes down in a straight line, give it time.

[digger]

Looks like GOLD is just not going play the game the Naked shorters want (which is for the world to drop it like it's the early 80's crash all over again...) Sorry not happening after billion fiat dollars thrown at it.....back it comes $1435oz

Hi JBmurc,

Have been having a great read these last few weeks about gold as a field of investment that I have previously not touched since I first entered the sharemarket in 1984. In fact this very recent collapsed has me reading all this site and the reference material you poster have supplied.Also googled it and read more.
The upshot is that I have become one of the thousands who have entered the gold market, by buying shares in mining companies that have faired the worst with this falling gold price. In fact I would say it looks to me like the buy of the century.
Have bought TRY, NTL NTLOA and GEL Interested in MOD So i guess indirectly I am one of those that is not playing ball with the Naked short sellers. And by the way I did like the article that said it was the FED as no one else has billions of fiat money to play in the hope to get there results.Also would say that the FED people would not have done this if the money came out of their own pocket. Of coarse it is easy for the FED as they are just printing it---what to hell.

[JBmurc]

Hi JBmurc,

Have been having a great read these last few weeks about gold as a field of investment that I have previously not touched since I first entered the sharemarket in 1984. In fact this very recent collapsed has me reading all this site and the reference material you poster have supplied.Also googled it and read more.
The upshot is that I have become one of the thousands who have entered the gold market, by buying shares in mining companies that have faired the worst with this falling gold price. In fact I would say it looks to me like the buy of the century.
Have bought TRY, NTL NTLOA and GEL Interested in MOD So i guess indirectly I am one of those that is not playing ball with the Naked short sellers. And by the way I did like the article that said it was the FED as no one else has billions of fiat money to play in the hope to get there results.Also would say that the FED people would not have done this if the money came out of their own pocket. Of coarse it is easy for the FED as they are just printing it---what to hell.

I'm jealous of your timing digger ...many of us PGM investors will need 30%+ just to get back to square one on many of our shares...

As for the FED once you look closer at the connection's more it comes apparent it's not there for the people but for the major shareholders one of which is JP Morgan.... the same guys that will be the major's involved in Naked shorting PGM and the controller of the biggest silver bullion hold in SLV.....all very cosy...but for how long

-history on the privately owned FED
http://theunjustmedia.com/Banking%20&%20Federal%20Reserve/The%20Federal%20Reserve%20is%20Privately%20owned.h tm

-Obama gave the FED the right to create up to 80 billion a month ...for free with no date in time to stop ?
not hard to see where those with interest's in the FED get their funds from...

[Kaspar]

Watched this doco by CBC Canada today, I'm no gold bug but I thought it was quite interesting, esp the part about how gold was treated in WW2.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-21/secret-world-gold

[elZorro]

Watched this doco by CBC Canada today, I'm no gold bug but I thought it was quite interesting, esp the part about how gold was treated in WW2.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-21/secret-world-gold

Cheers Kaspar. Found this item, worth reading through - contrary to what Skol would have us believe, there is phenomenal interest in buying gold worldwide at the current price. It won't stay down there for long.

https://d21uq3hx4esec9.cloudfront.net/images/uploads/ttmygh/6455/22_Apr_2013_TTMYGH.pdf

[JBmurc]

Paul Volcker stated back in 1980 that the mistake we made was not getting control of the gold price sooner (of course the gold price at that time had gone from $35 in 1971 to $850 a mere 9 years later)

looks like they have taken action of late

[Skol]

Paul Volcker stated back in 1980 that the mistake we made was not getting control of the gold price sooner (of course the gold price at that time had gone from $35 in 1971 to $850 a mere 9 years later)

looks like they have taken action of late

In your mind, the reason the gold and silver prices have fallen is quite simply because exponential rises in the price of anything are unsustainable. Easy really.

Bernanke and the Fed are as interested in the gold price as they are in lead, pork bellies or feeder cattle.

I've had a look at gold shares and buying now is trying to catch the falling knife, XGD down 2.8% yesterday and gold indexes off to a bad start this morning in the USA.

GDXJ -3%
GDX -2.9%
HUI -2.9%

Gold's going sub $1000, it'll just take a little time to get there, in fact a serious look at gold suggests that it will more than likely finish up around $700-$800.

$750 gold = <$12 silver.

[elZorro]

In your mind, the reason the gold and silver prices have fallen is quite simply because exponential rises in the price of anything are unsustainable. Easy really.

Bernanke and the Fed are as interested in the gold price as they are in lead, pork bellies or feeder cattle.

I've had a look at gold shares and buying now is trying to catch the falling knife, XGD down 2.8% yesterday and gold indexes off to a bad start this morning in the USA.

GDXJ -3%
GDX -2.9%
HUI -2.9%

Gold's going sub $1000, it'll just take a little time to get there, in fact a serious look at gold suggests that it will more than likely finish up around $700-$800.

$750 gold = <$12 silver. Here's a picture of the gold miners making up the HUI. Note they are all unhedged. Considering all the big players are in there - and of anyone, they should know what they're doing - why are they not all rushing to hedge their production? Because they must consider this drop in the gold price is temporary. Shareholders will have to wait for a recovery. http://www.kitco.com/pop_windows/stocks/hui.html

[Halebop]

Here's a picture of the gold miners making up the HUI. Note they are all unhedged. Considering all the big players are in there - and of anyone, they should know what they're doing - why are they not all rushing to hedge their production? Because they must consider this drop in the gold price is temporary. Shareholders will have to wait for a recovery. http://www.kitco.com/pop_windows/stocks/hui.html

I don't have a strong view on the direction of gold. The drops are scary but the price is still above the 12 year log trend - unfortunately the usefullness of this view is limited as the price could drop to $1,100 and the uptrend still be intact! ...but... plenty of gold miners hedged their books back when prices were low because they must have considered the then drop in gold was long term. If hedging is a predictor, I'd suggest its just as useful as a contrarian one.

[brettdale]

Surly its time to buy right now, in gold and gold mining companies.

[Skol]

Surly its time to buy right now, in gold and gold mining companies.

Gold (and silver) punters have been saying that for quite some time.

[digger]

I have never taken much interest it gold until very recent,where I have taken an reasonable size investment in mining companies. This gold site has been very useful to me with the many viewpoints. SKOL do not go away as we might fall into the trap that Greenspan called irrational exuberance----that happens when everyone says the same thing and to get heard the irrational exuberance has to go further down its one eyed track to get noticed.
I currently have more money to invest but will wait a few weeks to see how things pan out. Gold seems to be holding about 1425 for now but neither a overnight 200 dollar rise or fall would suprise me.The world and the economy is very unstable at the moment. Am beginning to wonder if this instability is the new normal.

[macduffy]

The recent drop in the PoG may or may not be due to some swift footwork on the part of speculators - or manipulators? - but of more pressing concern, IMO, should be the big cost increases that the Aussie miners, at least, have had to bear in recent years. At the heady prices of $1600+, even those with the poorest grades or highest costs should have been making good profits but with declining prices and increasing costs, many miners are caught in an ever tightening squeeze. Careful attention to individual companies' published costs has become more essential than ever.

[soulman]

A nice run up in all gold stocks today. I suspect the same next Monday. Probably just technical. Most goldies has been smashed lately.

Like I say before, RMS and FML seems to offer the best value in term of asset and EV.

[skid]

Gold (and silver) punters have been saying that for quite some time.

So have you Skol,only the opposite--a perfectly balanced equation-LOL

[Skol]

I'm waiting for Round 2, must be coming soon. I've been right for nearly 2 years, gold has been the worst investment anywhere. (Apart from silver)

[skid]

Skol,your a real character.
When gold was at $1100 you predicted a crash and kept on predicting one as gold increased up to $1800+
Now that it has fallen to around 25-30% higher than when you started posting,your patting yourself on the back.
Mate-your still in the red...
Meanwhile ,back to reality--the plunge in gold price has caused a bit of a stampede to finally get the chance to buy for many.
Physical buying has increased 2 fold for many mints.
This physical buying has apparently been the main factor in the rise .
Its interesting that so many jumped in when the fall came

[ynot]

Eventually logic must prevail. Recent gold buying action says it all.

[skid]

Have you done any research on the state of the economy when that first circle was drawn Karlos?
To think about Gold without factoring in the state of the economy is Imo short sighted.
If your satisfied that the economy is on the mend and things are coming right ,then by all means be comfortable in your decision.
But a graph ,without the underlying causes are not enough .They are not self explanatory.They are a representation of other factors.
What do you think the share market graph would have looked like if those bright sparks had not come up with sub prime mortgages to sell?
They say history doesnt repeat--the forces that create it do
You may be right that gold will fall,but I would be interested to hear your reasons other than it happened once before in a different time (we also had a depression and two world wars]
Im not saying we will not have both again,but you can bet that they wont happen ,simply because they have happened before.

[Skol]

Nice chart thanks Karlos.
The fun hasn't even begun yet.

[ynot]

When gold fell on your chart around 1980 i recall no urgency to buy physical after that drop like we have seen in the last couple of weeks. Thats one major diference between then and now, a greater awareness of golds underlying value.

[Skol]

Goldbugs talk about 'physical' and 'paper', it's all a load of BS squared.

They're one and the same, only losers having been lining up to buy 'physical' recently, because the next selloff isn't far away.

[JBmurc]

Goldbugs talk about 'physical' and 'paper', it's all a load of BS squared.

They're one and the same, only losers having been lining up to buy 'physical' recently, because the next selloff isn't far away.

You da man Skol NOT....

--GLD is believed to hold some 1083 tons of gold .......


Anybody who says there’s been gold selling in the GLD is a freaking moron (Bob Pistrami, I’m looking in your direction). The GLD works much like a coat check. Unless you think checking your coat constitutes a real transaction of some kind you shouldn’t think of changes in the GLD’s gold holdings as sales. They’re not. When you check your gold into the GLD you get shares (like a claim check). Where it gets wierd is you can sell these claim checks to nimrods who seem to think they’ve bought your coat, but aren’t actually allowed to wear it.

What nobody seems to appreciate is that every share of GLD is allowed to be sold TWICE (long and short, and it’s really important to understand that). If you’re foolish enough to doubt me (and foolish enough to short gold), go short GLD shares and see if anyone knocks on your door demanding gold. Saying the GLD is 100% backed by gold is a bold face lie because they’re can't be twice as many shares in play as gold backing them, which means GLD shares may be only 50% backed by gold before any rules are broken.

When GLD (or any ETF for that matter) shares sold exceed the existing shares PLUS all the shortable (double-sold) shares, legitimate shares can not be found for settlement and that must be reported to the SEC’s “Fails to Deliver” list, which is published twice a month with about a four-week delay (here).

April 15, 2013 was this biggest volume day ever for GLD (93.7mm) and I’ll guarantee you right now that record fails to deliver will be reported on or around that date, which should have required more gold to be deposited with the GLD (but that didn’t happen). So instead of the half-assed explanation Pistrami offered (here) of how he thinks the GLD works, he should have raised the question of whether or not there were enough legitimate shares of GLD to facilitate trading (I say no way in hell).

Gold continues to be pulled from the GLD (which really means people want their coats back) and still no one’s concerned about the number doubled-owned shares. Worse yet, the responsibility for sorting this unholy mess out falls to SEC chief Mary Jo White who is celebrating her 16th day in office.

I can’t wait to see what happens next….

http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress.com/2013/04/26/jamie-dimon-has-issues-or-meet-the-idiot-selling-gold/

[JBmurc]

Looks like Skol has fallen into the bear trap. Going to hurt trying to get out of this one!

I'll think your find SKOL doesn't actually short sell gold even with all his talk of gold crashing ,,outside his bet with me on it's year end price

[Skol]

No I don't short gold I own stocks, best run I've had since buying in after the 1987 crash.

[Skol]

snapiti

Well I've banged on about this before but one more time, just for you.

Gold and stocks are not correlated, when one goes up the other goes down, in general.

For example:

N225 +43%
DJIA +14%
XJO +14%
DAX +20%
FTSE +14%

________

Gold -13%
Silver -23%

In the last year, work it out for yourself, you don't need to be Albert Einstein.

So effectively, I'm shorting gold, without too much risk. Nice!

[Newman]

Could someone advise how gold could be sold? Is there a market for gold be traded by individuals? banks would not buy gold from clients.

[JBmurc]

Could someone advise how gold could be sold? Is there a market for gold be traded by individuals? banks would not buy gold from clients.

-- bullion dealers would buy from you pretty much worldwide every nation on earth your'd be able to sell your Bullion prices depending on the market demand....or like many just the free marketplace Trademe etc

Gold -1472 .....on it's way back north ..

perth mint business doubles
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20130426_interview.html

[Skol]

snapiti

Gold's been increasing exponentially up until 2 years ago, a clue to even the dimmest that bad things are going to happen. I've been right for the past 2 years, the decline in gold hasn't even started yet.

I've got a book here called 'Gold Bubble', the author digs into the absurd increase in gold prices over the last few years and thinks that gold will finally end up around $700 - $800.

You can look forward to years of a gold bear market, after the 1980 crash it went for 20 years. In 1980 gold went to $850, today it's $1470.
In 1980 the DJIA was 1000, today it's 14700.

And talking of history lessons:


------------------------------------
In his book Basic Economics, Thomas Sowell argued that, in the long-term, gold's high volatility when compared to stocks and bonds, means that gold does not hold its value compared to stocks and bonds:
To take an extreme example [of price volatility], while a dollar invested in bonds in 1801 would be worth nearly a thousand dollars by 1998, a dollar invested in stocks that same year would be worth more than half a million dollars. All this is in real terms, taking inflation into account. Meanwhile, a dollar invested in gold in 1801 would by 1998 be worth just 78 cents.

----------------------

Enjoy your 'investment'.

[skid]

snapiti

Gold's been increasing exponentially up until 2 years ago, a clue to even the dimmest that bad things are going to happen. I've been right for the past 2 years, the decline in gold hasn't even started yet.

I've got a book here called 'Gold Bubble', the author digs into the absurd increase in gold prices over the last few years and thinks that gold will finally end up around $700 - $800.

You can look forward to years of a gold bear market, after the 1980 crash it went for 20 years. In 1980 gold went to $850, today it's $1470.
In 1980 the DJIA was 1000, today it's 14700.

And talking of history lessons:


------------------------------------
In his book Basic Economics, Thomas Sowell argued that, in the long-term, gold's high volatility when compared to stocks and bonds, means that gold does not hold its value compared to stocks and bonds:
To take an extreme example [of price volatility], while a dollar invested in bonds in 1801 would be worth nearly a thousand dollars by 1998, a dollar invested in stocks that same year would be worth more than half a million dollars. All this is in real terms, taking inflation into account. Meanwhile, a dollar invested in gold in 1801 would by 1998 be worth just 78 cents.

----------------------

Enjoy your 'investment'.

That information seems a bit dated, Skol
What about from 1998-to now
I quite often dont agree with your logic,but having said that, this post is at least based on your reading
rather than basic name calling-a refreshing change--

biggest influence on gold this week should be the US unemployment report and FMOC meeting
Lets see how the US economy is doing--Are they getting any results from inflating the credit super bubble
on a daily basis?
If these numbers are good then they may hint at easing up on the QE gas peddle--If they are bad-its full steam ahead--Gold will most likely be a barometer of this[unless something bad happens somewhere like Korea of Iran]
The US must be looking hard for another source of income--maybe another latin America country or Syria[somewhere with a bit of that good sweet oil] gotta do somthing with the CIA and military--Its their biggest export.

[Skol]

Skid,

Must be a bit frustrating watching stocks worldwide go through the roof while gold stagnates.

I see you're into the usual conspiracy theories, the CIA, the military, the Fed, Bernanke etc.

Since 1990, the DJIA has increased 5.88 times, gold 3.65 times, and the DJIA doesn't include dividends.

[stanace]

unlike you skol who choose to use any time frame that suits to justify your voice I can really only relate to a more relivant time for me which is the time I have been investing which is 5 years.
In that time the DOW is up 12 % and gold is up 68% Or you could use 4 years, where the Dow is up 100%

[peat]

I agree that the high volatility of gold (and even more so silver) demands that the risk premium (return over and above risk-free) must be greater than stocks or bonds. And obviously price is the only return so PM's need to cover both that higher required risk premium as well as there being no yield. It is a big ask.

I like silver as a long termer though - not only is there actual demand (for actual products) which must support price at some level, say like NTA for a stock, but an appropriate sized holding increases risk component of the overall investment mix without exposure to a 100% write off as in the case of a company going belly up.

[JBmurc]

I agree that the high volatility of gold (and even more so silver) demands that the risk premium (return over and above risk-free) must be greater than stocks or bonds. And obviously price is the only return so PM's need to cover both that higher required risk premium as well as there being no yield. It is a big ask.

I like silver as a long termer though - not only is there actual demand (for actual products) which must support price at some level, say like NTA for a stock, but an appropriate sized holding increases risk component of the overall investment mix without exposure to a 100% write off as in the case of a company going belly up.

Belly up like the two only pure silver producers on the ASX are looking like doing--- CCU,AYN ......

MaX on Gold manipulation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVdHsAWDrAk

[elZorro]

JB, that video is weird, couldn't see something like that showing on TV1, he's certainly after attention. He might be on the right track though.

Looks like the shorting raid on gold was just that - the price is recovering amid lots of buying pressure.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-26/gold-buyers-throng-indian-stores-for-second-week-on-rally-1-.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-26/gold-buyers-throng-indian-stores-for-second-week-on-rally-1-.html)

When do you think gold will collapse further Skol?:)

[Skol]

EZ,

Shorting raid, another conspiracy theory, how about some evidence, no one here has EVER provided any solid evidence of concerted manipulation, and JPM won a court case recently by a group of burned silver 'investors' alleging manipulation.

When will gold resume its downward trend? Hard to say, but can't be too far away, gold hasn't recovered, lots of suckers seem to have been buying coins, but they will probably be unsophisticated punters who think its hit bottom. Coins might be in demand but gold is certainly isn't at ETFs, there's record outflows.

ABN Amro must have been reading my posts, they predict $1300 at the end of 2013, $1000 by Dec 2104 and $800 in 2015.

http://www.businessinsider.com/banking-giant-predicts-gold-price-collapse-2013-4?IR=T

[elZorro]

EZ,

Shorting raid, another conspiracy theory, how about some evidence, no one here has EVER provided any solid evidence of concerted manipulation, and JPM won a court case recently by a group of burned silver 'investors' alleging manipulation.

When will gold resume its downward trend? Hard to say, but can't be too far away, gold hasn't recovered, lots of suckers seem to have been buying coins, but they will probably be unsophisticated punters who think its hit bottom. Coins might be in demand but gold is certainly isn't at ETFs, there's record outflows.

ABN Amro must have been reading my posts, they predict $1300 at the end of 2013, $1000 by Dec 2104 and $800 in 2015.

http://www.businessinsider.com/banking-giant-predicts-gold-price-collapse-2013-4?IR=T Skol - it's strange you don't think there has been a concerted shorting attack on gold, when virtually every commentator has mentioned it. Including this one.

http://www.ino.com/blog/2013/04/golds-plunge-ultimately-healthy-for-the-sector-michael-gray/ (http://www.ino.com/blog/2013/04/golds-plunge-ultimately-healthy-for-the-sector-michael-gray/)

If the paper trades on gold far outweigh the gold that is physically available on a given day, eventually the reluctance of miners to bring their gold out of the ground for a firesale price will restore some balance. Gold dropped to $1350 and recovered to $1450 quite quickly. $1200 an ounce is most miners' bottom line. I think you're dreaming if you expect gold to ever go down below $1200 again. If it does, it won't be there for long.

ABX (Barrick) is today at $20 or so, down from $35. It's plumbed a depth not even seen in late 2008. Of course it climbed back out of that fairly quickly last time. There might be lots of shorters waiting for gold to get back to $1500 to have another go, according to the Moneychanger. It's just a matter of how long that sentiment runs for, and if the rest of the world's economies manage to keep themselves afloat on a sea of paper money.

Until energy costs markedly reduce instead of trending upwards, gold should also trend upwards. IMHO.

[skid]

Skid,

Must be a bit frustrating watching stocks worldwide go through the roof while gold stagnates.

I see you're into the usual conspiracy theories, the CIA, the military, the Fed, Bernanke etc.

Since 1990, the DJIA has increased 5.88 times, gold 3.65 times, and the DJIA doesn't include dividends.

Skol,
Must be a bit frustrating that we can always go back to post #1 and see what a horrendous track record you have at predicting the price of Gold.
Those who do not look at history have no choice but to label things as conspiracy theories-it makes them feel better.
Those that spin the propaganda must be delighted that you and others have swallowed it, hook line and sinker.
Anyway,enough of that..we all choose what to believe, based on the research we do[or lack of it],and after this slight deviation,its back to the subject at hand rather than individuals.
FMOC meeting coming up--should affect gold.

[Skol]

Skol,
Must be a bit frustrating that we can always go back to post #1 and see what a horrendous track record you have at predicting the price of Gold.
Those who do not look at history have no choice but to label things as conspiracy theories-it makes them feel better.
Those that spin the propaganda must be delighted that you and others have swallowed it, hook line and sinker.
Anyway,enough of that..we all choose what to believe, based on the research we do[or lack of it],and after this slight deviation,its back to the subject at hand rather than individuals.
FMOC meeting coming up--should affect gold.

Well show me some real evidence of manipulation, it's a load of Schiff and always has been, it's a hardy annual of morons like Jim Sinclair whenever gold goes down.



Bet you can't!!!!!!!

Gold bugs cite manipulation as their failure to make money, but even cash in the bank is thrashing gold.

[JBmurc]

The true suckers will be the ones that sold Gold/PGM shares at there all time low prices to then see them trade mutiables higher in the years ahead.....

As for manipulation go to 11mins http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVdHsAWDrAk
(CFTC reg. state there is manipulation)

But I guess you think banks never manipulated rates either SKOL LOL even though they were fined billions for it...

[JBmurc]

Gold margins getting tight, says Gold Fields chief
Date
July 31, 2012
Read later
Peter Ker


The wave of rationalisation that is starting to emerge among the major diversified miners will soon spread to the gold sector, as soaring costs and labour shortages begin to squeeze margins.

That warning from Nick Holland, the head of South African miner Gold Fields Limited, came this afternoon as the world's fourth biggest gold company addressed the Melbourne Mining Club.

Mr Holland criticised fellow gold producers for failing to include corporate and capital costs when publicising their profit margins, saying they were only fooling themselves and governments, who would duly seek to tap the industry for more taxes.

Mr Holland said rising energy, labour and production costs would virtually double costs in the next five years, and a gold price of close to $US2000 per ounce would be needed to keep pace.

If costs remain close to $US1600 where they have been in recent weeks, much of the industry would be "killed", he said, and many companies would have to pull back on projects.

"It may be that we have are going to have to see the sector rationalise before people believe us," he said.

Mr Holland said gold companies would have to start favouring dividends and returns to shareholders over marginal production if it is to win back investors, who have fled to gold-focused exchange traded funds in recent years.

Gold Fields is based in Johannesburg but operates the St Ives mine in Western Australia, and Mr Holland said he was looking for another mine in Australia.

Mr Holland said margins at St Ives were "tight" and the company would have to work hard to sustain that mine......

-------------------------------------------------------------===-=-=----=-=-=-------------------------------------------------------------------

the investors that see 700-800oz Gold are F'kn dreaming as it would wipe the sector out no production no more gold = more demand

[Skol]

JB,

Yeah, I didn't watch the Youtube clip, I can't stand beady-eyed Max Keiser and dimwitted ditzy Stacey Herbert and all their conspiracy theories. Go on believing in manipulation, but you'll be pushing Schiff uphill to provide any hard evidence here about JPM, GS, CitiBank, the Fed, Bernanke, ad infinitum.

[JBmurc]

JB,

Yeah, I didn't watch the Youtube clip, I can't stand beady-eyed Max Keiser and dimwitted ditzy Stacey Herbert and all their conspiracy theories. Go on believing in manipulation, but you'll be pushing Schiff uphill to provide any hard evidence here about JPM, GS, CitiBank, the Fed, Bernanke, ad infinitum.

well the evidence was in the clip but you keep those rose-tinted classes on ....

[Skol]

Why don't you find me some evidence from the Courts, or The Economist, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNN or someplace more reputable than Max Keiser and his harebrained sidekick. Not KWN or Mineweb either.

Hope you read ABN Amro's updated gold prediction - $800 in 2015 =~$12 silver.

Another bad day coming up for gold stocks, HUI -2.24%, GDX -2.27%, GDXJ -3.43%.

[skid]

[QUOTE=Skol;404340]Well show me some real evidence of manipulation, it's a load of Schiff and always has been, it's a hardy annual of morons like Jim Sinclair whenever gold goes down.



Bet you can't!!!!!!!

If you look at my post you will not see anything about price manipulation--if you want to talk about the CIA and Military occupation-where do I start?
Having said that ,my post was ''a moment of weakness'' in response to a rather provocative post..

[elZorro]

Here's the Dow/Gold chart in a log format for the last 200 years, it's up to date. Lately Gold has recovered against the DOW, and the number is dropping back from 10. If you believe in the major oscillations of a chart like this, the trend downwards will continue for a while yet.

[Skol]

the investors that see 700-800oz Gold are F'kn dreaming as it would wipe the sector out no production no more gold = more demand

Lots of goldbugs have this strange idea that gold can't crash to $700/$800 because the mines will close down.

Exactly correct, the mines will close down, gold is already one of the most despised punts on the planet, when it gets to $800 no one will want it = no demand.

One EWT theorist in the book 'Gold Bubble' theorises that gold could drop to $252 an ounce. = $4 silver.

[Skol]

That's on par with $10,000 gold, ridiculous talk. I'm a firm believer in charting like the above DOW/GOLD ratio above. We are in a middle ground right now with no direction. The next few months will determine where it all goes. Don't subscribe to silly talk; try to find a middle ground between the two extremes and use knowledge to back it up ;)

Let me quite you from 'Gold Bubble':

----------

However, if the entire move since 1999 has been a fifth wave of a larger wave counting back to 1968, prices may drop to the low of wave 2 of our larger 5th wave(starting in 1999) - a much steeper plunge to the low $252.80 an ounce.

-----------------

Looks like round 2 has begun, gold $1450, silver $23.50

[Skol]

Lots of goldbugs have this strange idea that gold can't crash to $700/$800 because the mines will close down.

----------------------------------------------


Gold Mining Firms "Should Think Unthinkable" About Gold Prices - 2 May 2013


FOLLOWING last month's drop in precious metals prices, gold mining companies should "think the unthinkable" about the price they can expect to get for their output, investment bank Credit Suisse has said.

Investors should also reappraise their expectations about gold and silver prices, a research note published by the bank this week says.

"For both investors and producers," the note says, "it is time to think the unthinkable. In practice that means modeling the effects that a sustained period of $1300 gold and $17.00 silver would have on portfolios, operating margins and cash flows."

April's sharp gold price fall has hit a number of gold mining projects, with world's biggest producer Barrick Gold cancelling at least half a billion Dollars of spending on major projects this year.

The biggest US producer Newmont meantime reported first quarter earnings this week of 71 cents per share, compared to the average estimate among analysts of 76 cents a share. Over the first quarter of this year, Newmont's reported 'average consolidated costs' were equivalent to $758 per ounce produced, a 22% increase on the same period last year. Between 2010 and last year, operating costs went up 40%, the company revealed.

Last month, metals consultant Thomson Reuters GFMS estimated that by its proprietary all-in costs measure, which includes operating costs and other costs such as administration, the average cost-per-ounce across the gold mining industry was $1211 an ounce in 2012.

However, "we think it important to remember that one thing that distinguishes gold from commodities is that it can trade below theoretical levels of marginal cost support for a very considerable time, and has done so in the past," says Credit Suisse.

Gold miners have focused too much on increasing production rather than profits in recent years, fund manager Evy Hambro, who manages BalckRock's commodities funds, said this week.

"Gold miners will become a barbarous relic without change," Hambro told an audience in London, echoing a phrase used by John Maynard Keynes to describe the gold standard, though he noted that some firms have listened to shareholders and promised to increase dividends.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Skol]

S&P500 smashes through 1,600 to set another all-time high, while gold stagnates after better than expected jobs report, another nail in the gold coffin. DJIA might break through 15,000 as well tonite.

Unfortunately for the goldbugs, the world economy is progressing reasonably well after the GFC and isn't in the Schiff after all. Meanwhile Jim Sinclair continues to peddle the yellow stuff and tries to tempt the world's suckers by saying gold's going to $50,000. Talking of suckers, the massive amount of coin sales recently to housewives may indicate that the retail sector is in on the great global gold scam and that the run-up in gold prices for the last 10 years is definitely over.

Despite the coin sales gold isn't going anywhere and gold ETF disinvestment continues.
-------------------------------------------------------

Gold price seen plunging to $1 200/oz over coming year

By: Leandi Kolver

3rd May 2013

The gold price is expected to continue falling to as low as $1 200/oz over the next year, after what seemed to be an unstoppable climb over the past 12 years, says investment company Rezco Asset Management investment director Rob Spanjaard.

He adds that Rezco attributes the drop in price mainly to a large number of exchange-traded funds being liquidated.

“The primary problem is that there was speculative money in gold, which is currently being withdrawn. As soon as the gold price stops rising, speculative investors start changing their minds.

“In this sense, when the gold price stopped rising, it was a warning sign of potential prob-lems to come,” he says.

In addition, the environment for gold, with central banks printing trillions of dollars, also added to the problem, he says. “If the gold price is no longer rising in that environment, it could, really, only fall.”

Spanjaard believes that the gold price will stay low for a couple of years, as gold that was accumulated for speculative purposes has to find its way into “strong hands” again.

“Also, the gold price has been climbing for more than ten years and experience in investment markets shows that no commodity will continue to climb indefinitely.”

Meanwhile, he advises individual investors to wait a while longer before buying gold.

“You have to look at where the gold price started – at $250/oz in 2001, from where it climbed to almost $1 900/oz in 2011. While gold currently feels cheap, compared with those highs, one has to remember the price from which it started.

“If you look at the price drop in perspective, it is not that severe and could fall even more,” he explains.

Therefore, potential investors should wait for the price to settle down and the investment cycle to turn.

While gold has previously been regarded as a safe haven for investors, Spanjaard states that a diversified portfolio would currently be the safest option.

“With gold climbing from $250 to $1 900, investors were confident that the price would continue to rise and it made them feel comfortable; however, this is probably when a commodity is at its most dangerous.

“Therefore, investors should rather invest in various commodities so that their portfolios are not too severely affected by a drop in price of a specific commodity, such as gold,” he concludes.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

[JBmurc]

gold ETF disinvestment continues......Oh no all that leased gold that has 10 different owners will go to 9 ...LOL

Gold -1470oz

[Skol]

gold ETF disinvestment continues......Oh no all that leased gold that has 10 different owners will go to 9 ...LOL

Gold -1470oz

Well if it's true, which I doubt, now's the time to bail out while the going's good.
Goldbugs love their conspiracy theories, because without them there's no need for gold.

Here's the weirdest I've heard. One guy says that when aircraft are leaving a condensation trail behind them the CIA are seeding the population with some chemical. As one of the biggest users of kerosene on the planet I reassured him that the filters would block up and the fuel system would go into bypass mode, the pilots would be alerted and they would have to land, especially if more than one engine went into bypass at the same time.
The conspiracy theorist reckons that the filters are specially CIA designed filters.

Hahahaha, you gotta laugh and wonder about the sanity of some of these dudes.

[BIRMANBOY]

So below is some information that those interested may be aware of or not. Courtesy Wikipedia. It does put a bottom line on the gold price question from the point of view of no-one is likely to sell below their cost of production. I did a rough calculation and they avg out at 615 usd per oz. It is common practice to mine low cost areas of the mine when gold price is lower and the reverse when high thus saving the best areas for 'tough times". Also of interest is that mines operators use high gold price times as an opportunity to write down assets etc thus creating lower tax obligations. So it would be reasonable to assume that last year when gold prices were high..higher cost areas of the mine were utilized. This would suggest that 615 is on the high side. In an ideal world companies produce a product, add an acceptable margin and ensure theit competiveness, profitability and longevity. There is such a large gap between gold price production costs and its actual retail price that one can assume that speculators and self interested parties are pushing prices beyond "normal" business reality. This would make gold as a metal such a bad investment unless you happen to be lucky enough to buy in at the right moment. As an investment in shares gold miners are removed from the driving end forces but also ultimately affected by all that speculation. Who'd want to be in such a speculative area always in the back of my mind. Gamblers all.
The Big 10

Rank
Name
Base
Revenue mil.USD (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/USD)
Ytd (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Year-to-date) Dec 2012
2008
cap (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Market_capitalization)
bil $ (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/USD)
2012 cap (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Market_capitalization)
bilUSD (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/USD)
profit mil USD (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/USD)
Ytd (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Year-to-date) Dec 2012
2012
production
tonnes
Reserves
Moz
Total Resource
Moz
Cash Cost
2012 year
US$ total/oz


5
AngloGold Ashanti (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/AngloGold_Ashanti)
South Africa (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/South_Africa)
6632 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ed/Decrease2.svg/11px-Decrease2.svg.png4.2%[28] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-anglogoldtwelve-28)
11.61
16.7[29] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-29)Feb.28
849 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ed/Decrease2.svg/11px-Decrease2.svg.png46.9%[28] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-anglogoldtwelve-28)
111.81 [28] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-anglogoldtwelve-28)
74.9 [13] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-rr-13)
264.30
1009 [28] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-anglogoldtwelve-28)


9
Eldorado Gold (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Eldorado_Gold)
Canada (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Canada)
1147.541 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b0/Increase2.svg/11px-Increase2.svg.png4.0%[38] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-eldoradogoldtwelve-38)
3.03
10.59[39] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-39)
318.054 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ed/Decrease2.svg/11px-Decrease2.svg.png8.4%[38] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-eldoradogoldtwelve-38)
18.69 [40] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-40)
18.61 [41] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-41)
20.2
483 [38] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-eldoradogoldtwelve-38)


6
Yamana Gold (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Yamana_Gold)
Canada (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Canada)
2336.762 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b0/Increase2.svg/11px-Increase2.svg.png7.5%[30] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-yamanagoldtwelve-30)
6.09
13.0[31] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-31) Feb.27
442.064 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ed/Decrease2.svg/11px-Decrease2.svg.png19.4%[30] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-yamanagoldtwelve-30)
33.71 [30] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-yamanagoldtwelve-30)
19.4 [13] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-rr-13)
46.35
525 [32] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-32)


1
Barrick Gold (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Barrick_Gold)
Canada (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Canada)
14,547 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b0/Increase2.svg/11px-Increase2.svg.png2.2%[10] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-barricktwelve-10)
26.90
49.0[11] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-11) Feb.10
(665) http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ed/Decrease2.svg/11px-Decrease2.svg.png
4484 in 2011[10] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-barricktwelve-10)
210.4 [12] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-barrick-12)
138.5 [13] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-rr-13)
226.92
584 [10] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-barricktwelve-10)


2
Goldcorp (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Goldcorp)
Canada (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Canada)
5435 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b0/Increase2.svg/11px-Increase2.svg.png1.4%[14] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-goldcorptwelve-14)
21.63
39.0[15] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-15) Feb.7
1749 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ed/Decrease2.svg/11px-Decrease2.svg.png7.0%[14] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-goldcorptwelve-14)
67.93 [16] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-16)
46.3 [13] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-rr-13)
60.1 Feb'11 [17] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-17)
81.59
638 [14] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-goldcorptwelve-14)


3
Newmont Mining (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Newmont_Mining)
United States (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/United_States)
9868 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ed/Decrease2.svg/11px-Decrease2.svg.png4.7%[18] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-newmonttwelve-18)
18.23
29.09[19] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-19)Mar.02
2118 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b0/Increase2.svg/11px-Increase2.svg.png117.9%[18] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-newmonttwelve-18)
141.1 [18] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-newmonttwelve-18)
85.0 [13] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-rr-13)
142.67
677 [18] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-newmonttwelve-18)


10
Polyus Gold (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Polyus_Gold)
Russia (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Russia)
2800 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b0/Increase2.svg/11px-Increase2.svg.png22%[42] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-polyus2012-42)
9.00
10.1[43] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-43)Feb.06
980.526 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b0/Increase2.svg/11px-Increase2.svg.png71.1%
47.57 [44] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-polyus-44)
74.1 [13] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-rr-13)
211.92
694 [44] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-polyus-44)


7
Kinross Gold (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Kinross_Gold)
Canada (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Canada)
4311.4 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b0/Increase2.svg/11px-Increase2.svg.png12.2%[33] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-kinrosstwelve-33)
11.14
11.5[34] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-34)Jan.20
(2509.7) loss http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ed/Decrease2.svg/11px-Decrease2.svg.png
(2013.0) in 2011[33] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-kinrosstwelve-33)
74.2 (2012)[33] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-kinrosstwelve-33)
Kinross 65.14,
RB 11.40 ('10)[35] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-kinrossten-35)
59.17
92.06
Kinross 74.8
Red Back 17.26
706 [33] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-kinrosstwelve-33)


8
Gold Fields (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Gold_Fields)
South Africa (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/South_Africa)
3530.6 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b0/Increase2.svg/11px-Increase2.svg.png1%[36] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-goldfieldstwelve-36)
7.51
11.26[37] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-37)Jan.21
724.2 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ed/Decrease2.svg/11px-Decrease2.svg.png33.0%[36] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-goldfieldstwelve-36)
92.25 [36] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-goldfieldstwelve-36)
78.9 [13] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-rr-13)
270.28
784 [36] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-goldfieldstwelve-36)


4
Newcrest Mining (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Newcrest_Mining)
Australia (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Australia)
3879 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ed/Decrease2.svg/11px-Decrease2.svg.png13.4%[20] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-nc1-20)[21] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-nc2-21)
10.01
26.0[22] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-22) Feb.14
793 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ed/Decrease2.svg/11px-Decrease2.svg.png30.8%[20] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-nc1-20)
58.77 (2012)[20] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-nc1-20)
77.44 (2011)[23] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-23)
NC 50[24] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-24) Lihr 25[25] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-25)
77.0 [26] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-nd-26)
205.45
Newcrest 119.2
Lihir 86.234
A$973 [27] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-27)


Sources and other information


2008 ranking Gold Strategist (http://www.goldstockstrategist.com/2009/04/expanding-coverage-to-16-largest-gold.html)
total resource [1] (http://www.24hgold.com/english/listcompanies.aspx?fundamental=true&commodity=AU)
1 tonne = 1000 kg = 2204.6 lbs = 35,273.9619 ounces; 1 ton = 2000 lbs = 32,000 ounces
Newcrest Mining started including Lihir Gold assets in mid-2010 (revenue and profit changes are based on pre merger assets in 2009 and merged assets in 2010).
Goldcorp reserves are from January 2010 and so it does not take into account the acquisition of Andean Resources (September) which increased proved gold reserves by at least 2.1 million ounces (not including the 20.6 million ounces of silver) [45] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-45) and may not include the sale of 21.1% of the Morelos gold project in Mexico with a total resource of 3.0 million ounces (agreed in December 2009 but completed in February 2010).[46] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-46)
Metrics such as cash costs, revenue for years prior to 2011 were changed due to the transition in accounting standards from Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) to International Financial Reporting Standards.[47] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-47)
For 2012 Barrick Gold's overall losses can be attributed to a $4 billion writedown on copper assets incurred during the final quarter.
3 of the companies took on major writedowns on their assets in the last quarter of 2011 and that affected their annual profits (Newmont $1.6B, Kinross $2.94B, Agnico-Eagle Mines $644.9M).
Newmont operates Australia's two biggest gold mines, Boddington and Kalgoorlie.[48] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-48)
On July 25, 2011 Polyus Gold and KazakhGold merged.
Only Yamana, Kinross, and Polyus Gold produced more gold in 2012 than 2011. In 2011 it was Newmont, Newcrest, Kinross and Eldorado that produced more.

[Skol]

4492Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reports a 51% increase in profit, shares at record price. While Goldbugs prepare for the end of the financial world as we know it Buffett gets on with the job.

From Bloomberg:
This earnings report is the tip of the iceberg,” Bill Smead, portfolio manager of the Smead Value Fund, which owns Berkshire shares, said in an interview in Omaha. “Warren has organized the company around the rebirth of the United States economy over the next 10 years and this is the beginning of that rebirth.”

[stanace]

I am not a great believer in the gold conspiracy theories, though some of them make a good case, I didn't like it when USA said it would take 7 years to give Germany back its gold. (Or maybe I read that wrong). What confuses me is that the price of gold and the price of silver and the price of platinum all seem to be connected. Every time gold moves, whether up or down, the others follow, apparently immediately.(Or is it the other way round?) Could anyone explain this rationally without some simplistic explanation such as, that is the markets outlook on the economy at that point in time. There must be more to it than that.

[BIRMANBOY]

Its impossible to supply a rational explanation to something that is driven by emotion. This is ultimately the biggest issue and fundamental problem with PM's.
I am not a great believer in the gold conspiracy theories, though some of them make a good case, I didn't like it when USA said it would take 7 years to give Germany back its gold. (Or maybe I read that wrong). What confuses me is that the price of gold and the price of silver and the price of platinum all seem to be connected. Every time gold moves, whether up or down, the others follow, apparently immediately.(Or is it the other way round?) Could anyone explain this rationally without some simplistic explanation such as, that is the markets outlook on the economy at that point in time. There must be more to it than that.

[Skol]

Its impossible to supply a rational explanation to something that is driven by emotion. This is ultimately the biggest issue and fundamental problem with PM's.

Quite right I'd say. If you look at a chart of silver and gold together, gold is much less volatile, silver is illiquid and less frequently traded. In the last 5 years where silver and gold started at 0, silver has traded down to -40% and up to +175%.

Gold started at 0, increased to 110% and is now declining. Silver has seen some extreme volatility, I think many PM punters are the 'get rich quick' mob, they listen to Jim Sinclair and Mike Maloney promising them instant riches and imbue them with the the PM cult of worldwide economic destruction, USD implosion, the USA's end of days, a military coup in the USA, global starvation, euro crash, civil unrest and revolution in the EU and all manner of other nonsense, they're brainwashed, it's PM idolization.

When silver crashed in May 2011, there was an article in the WSJ, some of the expectations of silver punters were beyond belief. One guy said "I heard silver was going to $150". These are the suckers that end up penniless in PM's, a generation on from the 1980 crash.

[BIRMANBOY]

Yes interesting looking at historic gold chart..from 1979 to 2007 gold traded at plus or minus 400USD which would have been a reasonable price based on on extraction costs and global supply and demand. Then in 2007 it went up like rocket..... so a totally illogical and unprecedented spike (apart from short sharp spike in 79 up to 800. Some research would probably uncover some political or other explanation for the rise but whatever it was its been a brainwashed and gullible public that has accepted the rise as justified and overdue. Undoubtedly many people got wealthy and many more lost along the way but jees what a stressfull ride it would be.(and still is) If you take out the speculators, conspiracists and assorted market manipulators it cant really be expected to sell for much more than 20 to 30 % over extraction costs. Of course the odds are that the average punter will lose big at some point and then of course will never touch it again. Hence the constant and incessant marketing/instant wealth/soon to be currency collapse/etc. etc..etc. which is designed to appeal to the aforesaid gullible and speculators. However you can understand the appeal of instant and guaranteed wealth.:scared:
Quite right I'd say. If you look at a chart of silver and gold together, gold is much less volatile, silver is illiquid and less frequently traded. In the last 5 years where silver and gold started at 0, silver has traded down to -40% and up to +175%.

Gold started at 0, increased to 110% and is now declining. Silver has seen some extreme volatility, I think many PM punters are the 'get rich quick' mob, they listen to Jim Sinclair and Mike Maloney promising them instant riches and imbue them with the the PM cult of worldwide economic destruction, USD implosion, the USA's end of days, a military coup in the USA, global starvation, euro crash, civil unrest and revolution in the EU and all manner of other nonsense, they're brainwashed, it's a cult.

When silver crashed in May 2011, there was an article in the WSJ, some of the expectations of silver punters were beyond belief. One guy said "I heard silver was going to $150". These are the suckers that end up penniless in PM's, a generation on from the 1980 crash.

[JBmurc]

There is less than ONE OUNCE of GOLD available for every citizen of the world.....thats including every oz ever mined from the earth ..now the fact is Central banks hold thousands of tons (geez GLD:ETF tell us they hold over 1,000t) so I'd say every citizen would be pushed to get half a oz each....Not much really...
.....CEO of Gold fields stated going forward 2,000oz+ will be needed to ever hope to replace their reserves exploration wise.....going from today's exploration costs /lower grade discovery's

going from the Big 10 detail above ...600-700moz in reserves ....in a decade there will be 300-400mill new citizens

[Skol]

JBMurc,

Yeah, but do we actually need gold? Dunno about you, but I don't, and everything seems OK here. I don't need 1/2 an oz, none at all really.

[digger]

Friday May 03, 2013 08:52


The unemployment rate with past month revisions stunned the market, with huge upward revisions for February, March and April’s numbers coming in at a respectable 165,000. Perception; Fed will now tighten monetary policy. I’ll double down on my bet, not until 2014.

Physical demand was slowing across Europe and North America according to some wire stories yesterday. Someone forgot to send me the memo. Although not as frenetic since the drop into the $1,300’s, the demand continues to be brisk. Coming off the May 1 holiday, the Chinese stepped in aggressively and pushed the copper price up 5% overnight. They have a long term “patient” perspective and continue to see real value in the commodity complex.

PGM’s continue to find bids on weakness as supply concerns from South Africa continue to make the headlines. Gold continues to tread water between $1,455-$1,480. Its Friday and traders may leave the range alone today. The market hates tight bands and a break is imminent.



By Peter Hug
Global Trading Director
Kitco Metals Inc.





The key point here is that markets hate tight bands and a break is imminent. So which way will it go????

[macduffy]

JBMurc,

Yeah, but do we actually need gold? Dunno about you, but I don't, and everything seems OK here. I don't need 1/2 an oz, none at all really.

There are many industrial uses for gold. Try electronics, television sets etc for starters.

http://geology.com/minerals/gold/uses-of-gold.shtml

[Skol]

The key point here is that markets hate tight bands and a break is imminent. So which way will it go????

The same way it's been going for the last 2 years, too much water gone under the bridge for a reversal.

[JBmurc]

JBMurc,

Yeah, but do we actually need gold? Dunno about you, but I don't, and everything seems OK here. I don't need 1/2 an oz, none at all really.

so your wife doesn't own any jewelry ....

[JBmurc]

There are many industrial uses for gold. Try electronics, television sets etc for starters.

http://geology.com/minerals/gold/uses-of-gold.shtml

Yes I understood 5% of gold production goes towards industry use (silver 95%)

[Skol]

so your wife doesn't own any jewelry ....

In a fit of generosity a few years ago I bought her a new gold Cindy Crawford Omega constellation watch with diamonds and mother-of-pearl face. Apart from a couple of rings, that's it.

There's no shortage, 3,000 tonnes are mined every year.

I reckon we'll see some new records in DJIA and S&P500 this week, not bad for a country that the goldbugs said was on its knees.

[JBmurc]

In a fit of generosity a few years ago I bought her a new gold Cindy Crawford Omega constellation watch with diamonds and mother-of-pearl face. Apart from a couple of rings, that's it.

There's no shortage, 3,000 tonnes are mined every year.

I reckon we'll see some new records in DJIA and S&P500 this week, not bad for a country that the goldbugs said was on its knees.

Half oz isn't much either ..like a old 20c piece

[elZorro]

BB had some basic figures in a table, from which a cash cost for gold was taken. While that may be true, any miner will also be adding in the capital costs to get to the point of mining. Then the picture is quite different, and worsening.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=188442&sn=Detail

This more recent data implies that miners should not sell gold below an average of about US$1400 an ounce if they are looking to replace that income, and that within 10 years the price will be more like $2,000 an ounce. The average grades they're taking out at the moment? Just 1 gram/tonne. In NZ in the late 19th century gold boom, the underground grades being taken were over 30 grams/tonne.

[Skol]

I see Glenn Beck is at the NRA convention appealing to the paranoia there the same as he appealed to the paranoid gold bugs, imploring them to buy gold to circumvent the ultimate financial meltdown, which hasn't, and won't, happen.

I heard Beck sold his gold, made a fortune and left the PM suckers holding the baby.

[stevo1]

I see Glenn Beck is at the NRA convention appealing to the paranoia there the same as he appealed to the paranoid gold bugs, imploring them to buy gold to circumvent the ultimate financial meltdown, which hasn't, and won't, happen.

I heard Beck sold his gold, made a fortune and left the PM suckers holding the baby.
Skolly he must be very stupid or boldfaced if he has done that a lot of them thar suckers are armed.,paranoid

[Skol]

Skolly he must be very stupid or boldfaced if he has done that a lot of them thar suckers are armed.,paranoid

Yeah, there's a gold conference on in New Orleans in November where goldbugs will be able to listen to such scamsters as Ron Paul, Peter Schiff and Marc Faber. All talking a load of Schiff and maybe wearing bulletproof vests, because the price of gold in November will probably be a lot lower than it is now.

[Skol]

Another bad day coming up for gold shares.

HUI -2.62%
GDX -2.9%
GDXJ -4.33%

Reuters) - Hedge fund billionaire John Paulson is emerging as one of the biggest losers in this year's gold rout, further tarnishing his once legendary status in the $2 trillion hedge fund industry.

Paulson's $700 million gold fund lost a whopping 27 percent in April, when the price of the metal plunged 17 percent over a two-week stretch, according to performance figures provided by a person familiar with the fund.

The jarring one-month decline in the Paulson gold fund brings the year-to-date loss for the fund to about 47 percent, the source said. The fund's losses were magnified by the fact that its bullish bet on gold was enhanced with leverage, or borrowed money, and derivatives tied to the price of gold.

[BIRMANBOY]

So are we mortgaging the house Moosie?
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful...

[Skol]

Moosie doesn't own a house to begin with and would never consider buying one in the current NZ real estate climate...

House in Auckland or gold? I know for sure which is the better bet and it's not gold.

[Skol]

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful...

This a quote from Warren Buffett, who advises against owning gold for very good reasons, the main one being that it's a matter of hope, you hope someone will pay you more for it than you paid.

[skid]

Kind of like we hope someone will pay more for our shares and real estate than we paid.
We hope the economy won't fall apart-but if it does, a bit of Gold will come in handy,even at the expense of losing some short term gains.
Its a matter of setting aside a small percentage of your assets from the state of mind of grabbing all the profits you can in the short term,in exchange for some security just in case.
Those folks down in Christchurch will know what I mean.

[BIRMANBOY]

HUhhh? How would owning gold be of any benefit to people in Christchurch? Cannot see any logic in that at all.
Kind of like we hope someone will pay more for our shares and real estate than we paid.
We hope the economy won't fall apart-but if it does, a bit of Gold will come in handy,even at the expense of losing some short term gains.
Its a matter of setting aside a small percentage of your assets from the state of mind of grabbing all the profits you can in the short term,in exchange for some security just in case.
Those folks down in Christchurch will know what I mean.

[Pumice]

Kind of like we hope someone will pay more for our shares and real estate than we paid.
We hope the economy won't fall apart-but if it does, a bit of Gold will come in handy,even at the expense of losing some short term gains.
Its a matter of setting aside a small percentage of your assets from the state of mind of grabbing all the profits you can in the short term,in exchange for some security just in case.
Those folks down in Christchurch will know what I mean.

Most people go for an income stream, something gold doesn’t provide.

On another note…
“Paulson's US$700 million (NZ$827m) gold fund lost a whopping 27 per cent in April, when the price of the metal plunged 17 per cent over a two-week stretch, according to performance figures provided by a person familiar with the fund.
The jarring one-month decline in the Paulson gold fund brings the year-to-date loss for the fund to about 47 per cent, the source said. The fund's losses were magnified by the fact that its bullish bet on gold was enhanced with leverage, or borrowed money, and derivatives tied to the price of gold.”

…We hear a lot about the paper gold sellers/manipulators, but never the paper gold buyers/manipulators eh.

[Skol]

We hear a lot about the paper gold sellers/manipulators, but never the paper gold buyers/manipulators eh.

What are you talking about? Manipulation? Give me a decent example of 'manipulation'. Not Keiser, Sinclair, KWN or any others talking up a load of Schiff, but something substantial.

There's no difference between 'paper' gold and the real thing. 'Paper' gold as you call it is far more desirable because it's much more liquid and the buying and selling premiums are less.

What's not to like about that?

[Pumice]

What are you talking about? Manipulation? Give me a decent example of 'manipulation'. Not Keiser, Sinclair, KWN or any others talking up a load of Schiff, but something substantial.

There's no difference between 'paper' gold and the real thing. 'Paper' gold as you call it is far more desirable because it's much more liquid and the buying and selling premiums are less.

What's not to like about that?

Bit of tongue in cheek there Skol (I’m certainly not a conspiracy theorist), my point was that if there are paper sellers of Gold (Manipulators as Gold bugs tend to call them) there is just as much chance as paper gold buyers. Looks like Paulson himself was a paper buyer. Just pointing out that it can go both ways. But Paulson got seriously burnt with a 47% loss ouch. Gold is meant to be a safe haven? Doesn’t appear that way to me.

[Skol]

Money printing (actually it's bond buying, not money printing) hasn't translated into inflation and the gold price is suffering accordingly. Gold is still overvalued and I expect more dramatic falls in the not too distant future.

After the 1980 gold crash it took gold 20 years to hit rock bottom, at the moment we're nowhere near it.

[digger]

Still it is always good to get a mix of ideas. Anyone else got any thoughts on which way is up?? For the last few weeks gold has stayed nicely in the tight trading range of 1445 to 1475 and from here I read that it will fall to 700 or rise to 3000 all within a year.Better take up fishing as I know where I am.

[Skol]

That's what greed does to normally rational people, and I will be looking for the bottom of the market when it does fall to make that first home purchase. Just like the stock market, real estate is: "Buy low, sell high"!

This is what greed does to normally rational people as well.

[peat]

There's no difference between 'paper' gold and the real thing. 'Paper' gold as you call it is far more desirable because it's much more liquid and the buying and selling premiums are less.

Going a bit too far here Skol - theres a huge difference.
Paper gold is an asset that is only as good as the liability on the other side.
Actual gold is a possession that can only be taken away by the government or a thief.

In any transaction would you rather have the thing, or the promise to deliver the thing?

Mostly they're the same of course - except for that very time when the Schiff hits the fan and promises start to get broken every where in the system.

[Skol]

Going a bit too far here Skol - theres a huge difference.
Paper gold is an asset that is only as good as the liability on the other side.
Actual gold is a possession that can only be taken away by the government or a thief.

In any transaction would you rather have the thing, or the promise to deliver the thing?

Mostly they're the same of course - except for that very time when the Schiff hits the fan and promises start to get broken every where in the system.

There's no difference, a new generation of goldbugs with some strange idea that the entire economic system is gonna collapse, they've pushed this barrow for years, it's really tedious, if it was going to happen it would have happened 5 years ago. The same as they bang on about confiscation and manipulation, but there isn't a shred of evidence, it's in their minds, they're brainwashed. The govt., or anyone else for that matter isn't interested in gold.

In the meantime of course, those that own equities.........................

[JBmurc]

This is what greed does to normally rational people as well.

No thats what massive increase of Fiat currencies does to a very limited amount of precious metal ...maybe you should read my signature again

[BIRMANBOY]

I dont smoke or like garish lipstick...can I have something else please?
There's no difference, a new generation of goldbugs with some strange idea that the entire economic system is gonna collapse, they've pushed this barrow for years, it's really tedious, if it was going to happen it would have happened 5 years ago. The same as they bang on about confiscation and manipulation, but there isn't a shred of evidence, it's in their minds, they're brainwashed. The govt., or anyone else for that matter isn't interested in gold.

In the meantime of course, those that own equities.........................

[Skol]

No thats what massive increase of Fiat currencies does to a very limited amount of precious metal ...maybe you should read my signature again

The gold mania was caused by loads of gullible punters listening to Ron Paul, Peter Schiff, Mike Maloney and scores of other scamsters who sell gold. Ron Paul's been going on the offensive in the last few days apportioning blame for the collapse in gold prices on some secret committee in the Obama administration and Goldman Sachs. Why would the Obama administration have the slightest interest in the price of gold?

There isn't any evidence of course but we shouldn't let that spoil a good conspiracy theory.

[Skol]

I dont smoke or like garish lipstick...can I have something else please?

Birmanboy, how about this?

[BIRMANBOY]

LOL...Thank you Lord..... (Skol) everything in life I love..and all in one picture. I'm a happy boy:t_up:
Birmanboy, how about this?

[JBmurc]

4504


I see even here we are trying to lower are dollar with intervention

[peat]

i reckon you didnt answer my question Skol - would you rather have the thing, or the promise to deliver the thing?

And clearly its not a case of owning either gold or equities.. I hear there is a neat concept called a 'portfolio of assets'.

[Skol]

i reckon you didnt answer my question Skol - would you rather have the thing, or the promise to deliver the thing?.

The promise to deliver the thing because it's more liquid and I can dump it with the push of a button. Who hasn't delivered? No ETF or company I know of.

[peat]

Who hasn't delivered? No ETF or company I know of.
Yeh thats right Skol. No company has ever defaulted L+LOL's .

[Skol]

Yeh thats right Skol. No company has ever defaulted L+LOL's .

OK, who hasn't delivered the gold recently?

[JBmurc]

OK, who hasn't delivered the gold recently?

Based on a letter to clients over the weekend, it appears Dutch megabank ABN Amro is changing its precious metals custodian rules and "will no longer allow physical delivery." Have no fear, they reassuringly add, your account will be settled at the bid or offer price in the 'market' and "you need to do nothing" as "we have your investments in precious metals."


Changes in the handling of orders in bullion

On 1 April 2013,. ABN AMRO to another custodian for the precious metals gold, silver, platinum and palladium. This we your investments in precious metals otherwise handle and administer. In this letter you can read more about it.

What will change?

With the transition to the new custodian will include the following from 1 April 2013 for you to change.
• You can have your precious metals to your investment account no longer physically let us extradite
• Gives you order in precious metals via the giro ABN AMRO? Then the settlement of orders that henceforth performed at bid prices or at the offer prices prevailing on the market for precious metals. No longer based on the mid-price, as you used to.
• The bid price is the price that merchants offer for precious metals that are offered for sale, so if you sell.
• The ask price is the price at which traders want to sell precious metals, so if you buy.
• We are the positions in these precious metals in your investment statements against future bid prices appreciate

You can read more about investing in precious metals in Chapter 4 (Supplementary conditions for investing in precious metals) of the Conditions Beleggersgiro. You can find these at abnamro.nl / Conditions invest

Should I do anything?

You need do nothing. We ensure that we have your investments in precious metals now the new way to handle and administer.

[Skol]

JB,

No ETF or company has not delivered. It's like anything, caveat emptor, do your homework and only deal with reputable banks or ETF's with a track record.

A company in NZ didn't deliver, but it was run by scamsters, Bullion Buyer, one Christchurch family lost $340,000, hard to find sympathy, gold scams like this are a dime a dozen.

Who wants to take delivery anyway? Certainly not me, I'm not the least interested in storing gold in my house or anywhere else, it costs and there's risks, if I was interested in gold I'd only want what gold bugs call 'paper' gold so that I can trade it, or unload it whenever I want without moving out of the house.

[peat]

I wasnt thinking just about gold physical delivery although I recall GoldCorp not delivering (which you manage to exclude by using the word recently) But 'recently' is not relevant. We all know that risk is never there until it suddenly is. So restricting your historical view to 'recently' is ignoring the fat tails of a probability distribution.
If your position in gold is through a online account then your risk includes that possibility your broker defaults.
Were Bear Stearns considered reputable , or Northern Rock? Default happens and to ignore that and see paper assets the same as physical assets is simplistic when understanding risk.

[Skol]

"""I wasnt thinking just about gold physical delivery although I recall GoldCorp """

Goldcorp. LOL Ray Smith, who scammed the suckers and took off with his mistress to Utah. Not what you would call a reputable company, I pulled my money out of the sharemarket in 1986 because the writing was on the wall.

I could've made a lot more but I was getting very nervous watching everyone line up at the NZX in Queen St.

[Minerbarejet]

"""I wasnt thinking just about gold physical delivery although I recall GoldCorp """

Goldcorp. LOL Ray Smith, who scammed the suckers and took off with his mistress to Utah. Not what you would call a reputable company, I pulled my money out of the sharemarket in 1986 because the writing was on the wall.

I could've made a lot more but I was getting very nervous watching everyone line up at the NZX in Queen St.

Be sure to let us all know the next time you see any writing on the wall - it would seem the lines are starting to form so to speak:)

[Skol]

Just out from Incredible Charts.
-----------------------

Gold's bear rally has run out of steam, with continued tests of support at $1440/$1450. Breach would penetrate the rising trendline, indicating another test of primary support at $1320. Target for the decline would be $1200*. Breakout above $1500 is unlikely, but would test $1550.
-----------------------

[skid]

Who wants to take delivery anyway? Certainly not me, I'm not the least interested in storing gold in my house or anywhere else, it costs and there's risks, if I was interested in gold I'd only want what gold bugs call 'paper' gold so that I can trade it, or unload it whenever I want without moving out of the house.[/QUOTE]

Depends on why you want Gold

[Skol]

More gold weakness.

I'll quote my favourite US President, George W. Bush.

"this sucker's going down."

[stevo1]

More gold weakness.

I'll quote my favourite US President, George W. Bush.

"this sucker's going down."

SOME MORE quotes your fav pres SKOL
50. "I promise you I will listen to what has been said here, even though I wasn't here." --at the President's Economic Forum in Waco, Texas, Aug. 13, 2002

49. "We spent a lot of time talking about Africa, as we should. Africa is a nation that suffers from incredible disease." --Gothenburg, Sweden, June 14, 2001

48. "You teach a child to read, and he or her will be able to pass a literacy test." -Townsend, Tenn., Feb. 21, 2001

47. "I am here to make an announcement that this Thursday, ticket counters and airplanes will fly out of Ronald Reagan Airport." --Washington, D.C., Oct. 3, 2001

46. "Tribal sovereignty means that; it's sovereign. I mean, you're a -- you've been given sovereignty, and you're viewed as a sovereign entity. And therefore the relationship between the federal government and tribes is one between sovereign entities." --Washington, D.C., Aug. 6, 2004 (Watch video clip)

45. "I couldn't imagine somebody like Osama bin Laden understanding the joy of Hanukkah." --at a White House menorah lighting ceremony, Washington, D.C., Dec. 10, 2001 (Listen to audio clip)

44. "You know, one of the hardest parts of my job is to connect Iraq to the war on terror." --interview with CBS News' Katie Couric, Sept. 6, 2006

43. "The same folks that are bombing innocent people in Iraq were the ones who attacked us in America on September the 11th." --Washington, D.C., July 12, 2007

42. "I'm the commander -- see, I don't need to explain -- I do not need to explain why I say things. That's the interesting thing about being president." --as quoted in Bob Woodward's Bush at War

41. "Oh, no, we're not going to have any casualties." --discussing the Iraq war with Christian Coalition founder Pat Robertson in 2003, as quoted by Robertson

40. 3. "I think I was unprepared for war." –on the biggest regret of his presidency, ABC News interview, Dec. 1, 2008

39. "I will not withdraw, even if Laura and Barney are the only ones supporting me." --talking to key Republicans about Iraq, as quoted by Bob Woodward

38. "I hear there's rumors on the Internets that we're going to have a draft." --presidential debate, St. Louis, Mo., Oct. 8, 2004 (Watch video clip)

37. "I know how hard it is for you to put food on your family." --Greater Nashua, N.H., Chamber of Commerce, Jan. 27, 2000 (Listen to audio clip)

36. "Do you have blacks, too?" --to Brazilian President Fernando Cardoso, Washington, D.C., Nov. 8, 2001

35. "This foreign policy stuff is a little frustrating." --as quoted by the New York Daily News, April 23, 2002

34. "I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees." --on "Good Morning America," Sept. 1, 2005, six days after repeated warnings from experts about the scope of damage expected from Hurricane Katrina

33. "I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully." --Saginaw, Mich., Sept. 29, 2000

32. "I would say the best moment of all was when I caught a 7.5 pound largemouth bass in my lake." --on his best moment in office, interview with the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag, May 7, 2006

31. "They misunderestimated me." --Bentonville, Ark., Nov. 6, 20
30. "For every fatal shooting, there were roughly three non-fatal shootings. And, folks, this is unacceptable in America. It's just unacceptable. And we're going to do something about it." --Philadelphia, Penn., May 14, 2001

29. "This is an impressive crowd -- the haves and the have mores. Some people call you the elite -- I call you my base." --at the 2000 Al Smith dinner

28. "Families is where our nation finds hope, where wings take dream." --LaCrosse, Wis., Oct. 18, 2000

27. "I know what I believe. I will continue to articulate what I believe and what I believe -- I believe what I believe is right." --Rome, Italy, July 22, 2001

26. "See, in my line of work you got to keep repeating things over and over and over again for the truth to sink in, to kind of catapult the propaganda." --Greece, N.Y., May 24, 2005 (Listen to audio clip)
25. "People say, how can I help on this war against terror? How can I fight evil? You can do so by mentoring a child; by going into a shut-in's house and say I love you." --Washington, D.C., Sept. 19, 2002

24. "I wish you'd have given me this written question ahead of time so I could plan for it...I'm sure something will pop into my head here in the midst of this press conference, with all the pressure of trying to come up with answer, but it hadn't yet...I don't want to sound like I have made no mistakes. I'm confident I have. I just haven't -- you just put me under the spot here, and maybe I'm not as quick on my feet as I should be in coming up with one." --after being asked to name the biggest mistake he had made, Washington, D.C., April 3, 2004

23. "You forgot Poland." --to Sen. John Kerry during the first presidential debate, after Kerry failed to mention Poland's contributions to the Iraq war coalition, Miami, Fla., Sept. 30, 2004

22. "Goodbye from the world's biggest polluter." --in parting words to world leaders at his final G-8 Summit, punching the air and grinning widely as those present looked on in shock, Rusutsu, Japan, July 10, 2008

21. "The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa." --State of the Union Address, Jan. 28, 2003, making a claim that administration officials knew at the time to be false
20. "The most important thing is for us to find Osama bin Laden. It is our number one priority and we will not rest until we find him." --Washington, D.C., Sept. 13, 2001

19. "I don't know where bin Laden is. I have no idea and really don't care. It's not that important. It's not our priority." --Washington, D.C., March 13, 2002

18. "So what?" –President Bush, responding to a an ABC News correspondent who pointed out that Al Qaeda wasn't a threat in Iraq until after the U.S. invaded, Dec. 14, 2008

17. "Can we win? I don't think you can win it." --after being asked whether the war on terror was winnable, "Today" show interview, Aug. 30, 2004

16. "I just want you to know that, when we talk about war, we're really talking about peace." --Washington, D.C. June 18, 2002

15. "I trust God speaks through me. Without that, I couldn't do my job." --to a group of Amish he met with privately, July 9, 2004

14. "Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed." --speaking underneath a "Mission Accomplished" banner aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, May 1, 2003

13. "We found the weapons of mass destruction. We found biological laboratories ... And we'll find more weapons as time goes on. But for those who say we haven't found the banned manufacturing devices or banned weapons, they're wrong, we found them." --Washington, D.C., May 30, 2003

12. "Those weapons of mass destruction have got to be somewhere!" --joking about his administration's failure to find WMDs in Iraq as he narrated a comic slideshow during the Radio & TV Correspondents' Association dinner, Washington, D.C., March 24, 2004 (Read more)

11. "I'll be long gone before some smart person ever figures out what happened inside this Oval Office." --Washington, D.C., May 12, 2008

Next > Still More Idiotic Bushisms
10. "Rarely is the question asked: Is our children learning?" --Florence, South Carolina, Jan. 11, 2000

9. "As yesterday's positive report card shows, childrens do learn when standards are high and results are measured." --on the No Child Left Behind Act, Washington, D.C., Sept. 26, 2007 (Watch video clip)

8. "If this were a dictatorship, it'd be a heck of a lot easier, just so long as I'm the dictator." --Washington, D.C., Dec. 19, 2000 (Listen to audio clip)

7. "I'm the decider, and I decide what is best. And what's best is for Don Rumsfeld to remain as the Secretary of Defense." --Washington, D.C. April 18, 2006 (Read more; listen to audio clip; watch video clip)

6. "There's an old saying in Tennessee -- I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee -- that says, fool me once, shame on --shame on you. Fool me -- you can't get fooled again." --Nashville, Tenn., Sept. 17, 2002 (Watch video clip)

5. "Too many good docs are getting out of the business. Too many OB-GYNs aren't able to practice their love with women all across this country." --Poplar Bluff, Mo., Sept. 6, 2004 (Watch video clip)

4. "Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." --Washington, D.C., Aug. 5, 2004 (Watch video clip)

3. "You work three jobs? ... Uniquely American, isn't it? I mean, that is fantastic that you're doing that." --to a divorced mother of three, Omaha, Nebraska, Feb. 4, 2005 (Listen to audio clip)

2. "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job." --to FEMA director Michael Brown, who resigned 10 days later amid criticism over his handling of the Hurricane Katrina debacle, Mobile, Ala., Sept. 2, 2005 (Listen to audio clip; watch video clip)

1. "My answer is bring them on." --on Iraqi insurgents attacking U.S. forces, Washington, D.C., July 3, 2003

~Compiled by Daniel Kurtzman
GOD MESS ABLARICA and save the world from BUSHES

[Skol]

Still the best and most entertaining President, and he took down Saddam Hussein, who was gonna screw the world with high oil prices.
Took out lots of terrorists as well, a real hero!

Hope you don't own any gold Stevo, or you're goin' down too. lol

[stevo1]

More gold weakness.

I'll quote my favourite US President, George W. Bush.

"this sucker's going down."
Here is some more of your fav pres quotes http://politicalhumor.about.com/od/bushquotes/a/dumbbushquotes_3.htm

[skid]

"""I wasnt thinking just about gold physical delivery although I recall GoldCorp """

Goldcorp. LOL Ray Smith, who scammed the suckers and took off with his mistress to Utah. Not what you would call a reputable company, I pulled my money out of the sharemarket in 1986 because the writing was on the wall.

I could've made a lot more but I was getting very nervous watching everyone line up at the NZX in Queen St.

From its all time high in 2007 the dow fell 7000 points [in march 2009] Since then it has increased to almost 1000 points higher than its 2007 high. Look around you at the economy and draw your own conclusions.

[skid]

SOME MORE quotes your fav pres SKOL
50. "I promise you I will listen to what has been said here, even though I wasn't here." --at the President's Economic Forum in Waco, Texas, Aug. 13, 2002

49. "We spent a lot of time talking about Africa, as we should. Africa is a nation that suffers from incredible disease." --Gothenburg, Sweden, June 14, 2001

48. "You teach a child to read, and he or her will be able to pass a literacy test." -Townsend, Tenn., Feb. 21, 2001

47. "I am here to make an announcement that this Thursday, ticket counters and airplanes will fly out of Ronald Reagan Airport." --Washington, D.C., Oct. 3, 2001

46. "Tribal sovereignty means that; it's sovereign. I mean, you're a -- you've been given sovereignty, and you're viewed as a sovereign entity. And therefore the relationship between the federal government and tribes is one between sovereign entities." --Washington, D.C., Aug. 6, 2004 (Watch video clip)

45. "I couldn't imagine somebody like Osama bin Laden understanding the joy of Hanukkah." --at a White House menorah lighting ceremony, Washington, D.C., Dec. 10, 2001 (Listen to audio clip)

44. "You know, one of the hardest parts of my job is to connect Iraq to the war on terror." --interview with CBS News' Katie Couric, Sept. 6, 2006

43. "The same folks that are bombing innocent people in Iraq were the ones who attacked us in America on September the 11th." --Washington, D.C., July 12, 2007

42. "I'm the commander -- see, I don't need to explain -- I do not need to explain why I say things. That's the interesting thing about being president." --as quoted in Bob Woodward's Bush at War

41. "Oh, no, we're not going to have any casualties." --discussing the Iraq war with Christian Coalition founder Pat Robertson in 2003, as quoted by Robertson

40. 3. "I think I was unprepared for war." –on the biggest regret of his presidency, ABC News interview, Dec. 1, 2008

39. "I will not withdraw, even if Laura and Barney are the only ones supporting me." --talking to key Republicans about Iraq, as quoted by Bob Woodward

38. "I hear there's rumors on the Internets that we're going to have a draft." --presidential debate, St. Louis, Mo., Oct. 8, 2004 (Watch video clip)

37. "I know how hard it is for you to put food on your family." --Greater Nashua, N.H., Chamber of Commerce, Jan. 27, 2000 (Listen to audio clip)

36. "Do you have blacks, too?" --to Brazilian President Fernando Cardoso, Washington, D.C., Nov. 8, 2001

35. "This foreign policy stuff is a little frustrating." --as quoted by the New York Daily News, April 23, 2002

34. "I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees." --on "Good Morning America," Sept. 1, 2005, six days after repeated warnings from experts about the scope of damage expected from Hurricane Katrina

33. "I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully." --Saginaw, Mich., Sept. 29, 2000

32. "I would say the best moment of all was when I caught a 7.5 pound largemouth bass in my lake." --on his best moment in office, interview with the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag, May 7, 2006

31. "They misunderestimated me." --Bentonville, Ark., Nov. 6, 20
30. "For every fatal shooting, there were roughly three non-fatal shootings. And, folks, this is unacceptable in America. It's just unacceptable. And we're going to do something about it." --Philadelphia, Penn., May 14, 2001

29. "This is an impressive crowd -- the haves and the have mores. Some people call you the elite -- I call you my base." --at the 2000 Al Smith dinner

28. "Families is where our nation finds hope, where wings take dream." --LaCrosse, Wis., Oct. 18, 2000

27. "I know what I believe. I will continue to articulate what I believe and what I believe -- I believe what I believe is right." --Rome, Italy, July 22, 2001

26. "See, in my line of work you got to keep repeating things over and over and over again for the truth to sink in, to kind of catapult the propaganda." --Greece, N.Y., May 24, 2005 (Listen to audio clip)
25. "People say, how can I help on this war against terror? How can I fight evil? You can do so by mentoring a child; by going into a shut-in's house and say I love you." --Washington, D.C., Sept. 19, 2002

24. "I wish you'd have given me this written question ahead of time so I could plan for it...I'm sure something will pop into my head here in the midst of this press conference, with all the pressure of trying to come up with answer, but it hadn't yet...I don't want to sound like I have made no mistakes. I'm confident I have. I just haven't -- you just put me under the spot here, and maybe I'm not as quick on my feet as I should be in coming up with one." --after being asked to name the biggest mistake he had made, Washington, D.C., April 3, 2004

23. "You forgot Poland." --to Sen. John Kerry during the first presidential debate, after Kerry failed to mention Poland's contributions to the Iraq war coalition, Miami, Fla., Sept. 30, 2004

22. "Goodbye from the world's biggest polluter." --in parting words to world leaders at his final G-8 Summit, punching the air and grinning widely as those present looked on in shock, Rusutsu, Japan, July 10, 2008

21. "The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa." --State of the Union Address, Jan. 28, 2003, making a claim that administration officials knew at the time to be false
20. "The most important thing is for us to find Osama bin Laden. It is our number one priority and we will not rest until we find him." --Washington, D.C., Sept. 13, 2001

19. "I don't know where bin Laden is. I have no idea and really don't care. It's not that important. It's not our priority." --Washington, D.C., March 13, 2002

18. "So what?" –President Bush, responding to a an ABC News correspondent who pointed out that Al Qaeda wasn't a threat in Iraq until after the U.S. invaded, Dec. 14, 2008

17. "Can we win? I don't think you can win it." --after being asked whether the war on terror was winnable, "Today" show interview, Aug. 30, 2004

16. "I just want you to know that, when we talk about war, we're really talking about peace." --Washington, D.C. June 18, 2002

15. "I trust God speaks through me. Without that, I couldn't do my job." --to a group of Amish he met with privately, July 9, 2004

14. "Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed." --speaking underneath a "Mission Accomplished" banner aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, May 1, 2003

13. "We found the weapons of mass destruction. We found biological laboratories ... And we'll find more weapons as time goes on. But for those who say we haven't found the banned manufacturing devices or banned weapons, they're wrong, we found them." --Washington, D.C., May 30, 2003

12. "Those weapons of mass destruction have got to be somewhere!" --joking about his administration's failure to find WMDs in Iraq as he narrated a comic slideshow during the Radio & TV Correspondents' Association dinner, Washington, D.C., March 24, 2004 (Read more)

11. "I'll be long gone before some smart person ever figures out what happened inside this Oval Office." --Washington, D.C., May 12, 2008

Next > Still More Idiotic Bushisms
10. "Rarely is the question asked: Is our children learning?" --Florence, South Carolina, Jan. 11, 2000

9. "As yesterday's positive report card shows, childrens do learn when standards are high and results are measured." --on the No Child Left Behind Act, Washington, D.C., Sept. 26, 2007 (Watch video clip)

8. "If this were a dictatorship, it'd be a heck of a lot easier, just so long as I'm the dictator." --Washington, D.C., Dec. 19, 2000 (Listen to audio clip)

7. "I'm the decider, and I decide what is best. And what's best is for Don Rumsfeld to remain as the Secretary of Defense." --Washington, D.C. April 18, 2006 (Read more; listen to audio clip; watch video clip)

6. "There's an old saying in Tennessee -- I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee -- that says, fool me once, shame on --shame on you. Fool me -- you can't get fooled again." --Nashville, Tenn., Sept. 17, 2002 (Watch video clip)

5. "Too many good docs are getting out of the business. Too many OB-GYNs aren't able to practice their love with women all across this country." --Poplar Bluff, Mo., Sept. 6, 2004 (Watch video clip)

4. "Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." --Washington, D.C., Aug. 5, 2004 (Watch video clip)

3. "You work three jobs? ... Uniquely American, isn't it? I mean, that is fantastic that you're doing that." --to a divorced mother of three, Omaha, Nebraska, Feb. 4, 2005 (Listen to audio clip)

2. "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job." --to FEMA director Michael Brown, who resigned 10 days later amid criticism over his handling of the Hurricane Katrina debacle, Mobile, Ala., Sept. 2, 2005 (Listen to audio clip; watch video clip)

1. "My answer is bring them on." --on Iraqi insurgents attacking U.S. forces, Washington, D.C., July 3, 2003

~Compiled by Daniel Kurtzman
GOD MESS ABLARICA and save the world from BUSHES

Your an easy target Skol

[Skol]

Your an easy target Skol

Am I?

I don't own any gold, I own 90,000 units in the BT Japan Fund that I've been accumulating for years, it's payday.

IN the last 12 months:

Gold -9%
Silver -19%
N225 +63%.

Who's making money and who isn't?

BTW, George W. Bush was more popular than Obama is now.

[Skol]

From its all time high in 2007 the dow fell 7000 points [in march 2009] Since then it has increased to almost 1000 points higher than its 2007 high. Look around you at the economy and draw your own conclusions.

I've been drawing my conclusions about gold for years, it's on the 'skids'. lol

Economy looks OK to me, just looks bad to goldbugs who like to blame everyone else (JP Morgan, the Fed, Obama, Goldmans, ECB, ad. nauseum) for their misfortune, which is about to get a lot worse.

[stevo1]

Still the best and most entertaining President, and he took down Saddam Hussein, who was gonna screw the world with high oil prices.
Took out lots of terrorists as well, a real hero!


Hope you don't own any gold Stevo, or you're goin' down too. lol




''Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we.''

—President George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., Aug. 5, 2004


Skol i do own some gold.Not a truckload but some- prices I paid range from $30-$500 /oz for it so yes I have owned it for some time and even with gold at $2000/oz havent sold.[It is my insurance against American stupidity.Which is not confined to the Bushes

''My belief is we will, in fact, be greeted as liberators.''

—Vice President Dick Cheney, on invading Iraq, ''Meet the Press,'' March 16, 2003



''I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that's a storybook, man.''

—Joe Biden, referring to Barack Obama at the beginning of the 2008 Democratic primary campaign, Jan. 31, 2007


''People have got to know whether or not their President is a crook. Well, I'm not a crook. I've earned everything I've got.''

—Richard Nixon at a November 17, 1973 news conference

''If I were a single man, I might ask that mummy out. That's a good-looking mummy.''

—Bill Clinton, on ''Juanita,'' a newly discovered Incan mummy on display at the National Geographic museum


''During my service in the United States Congress I took the initiative in creating the Internet.''

—Vice President Al Gore, during the 2000 presidential campaign


''I promise you, the president has a big stick. I promise you.''

—Joe Biden, citing Theodore Roosevelt's famous quote, ''Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far'' (April 26, 2012)

''Folks, I can tell you I've known eight presidents, three of them intimately.''

—Joe Biden, Aug. 22, 2012


''Republicans understand the importance of bondage between a mother and child.''

—Dan Quayle

''It depends on what the meaning of the words 'is' is.''

—Bill Clinton, during his 1998 grand jury testimony on the Monica Lewinsky affair

''I was under medication when I made the decision to burn the tapes.''

—Richard Nixon


''Well, I learned a lot....I went down to (Latin America) to find out from them and (learn) their views. You'd be surprised. They're all individual countries''

—President Ronald Reagan

''A zebra does not change its spots.''

—Al Gore
''I want to say one thing to the American people. I want you to listen to me. I'm going to say this again: I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky. I never told anybody to lie, not a single time; never. These allegations are false. And I need to go back to work for the American people.''

—Bill Clinton, Jan. 26, 1998


''Facts are stupid things.''

—Ronald Reagan, at the 1988 Republican National Convention, attempting to quote John Adams, who said, ''Facts are stubborn things''

''I am not worried about the deficit. It is big enough to take care of itself.''

—President Ronald Reagan

'When I meet with world leaders, what's striking -- whether it's in Europe or here in Asia...''

—President Obama mistakenly referring to Hawaii as Asia while holding a press conference outside Honolulu, Nov. 16, 2011
http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/bl-barack-obama-quotes.htm?PS=548%3A16

[BIRMANBOY]

Oh the joys of being a public figure!!! Good laugh there Steve...its much less stressfull being a fool in private:)
''Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we.''

—President George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., Aug. 5, 2004


Skol i do own some gold.Not a truckload but some- prices I paid range from $30-$500 /oz for it so yes I have owned it for some time and even with gold at $2000/oz havent sold.[It is my insurance against American stupidity.Which is not confined to the Bushes

''My belief is we will, in fact, be greeted as liberators.''

—Vice President Dick Cheney, on invading Iraq, ''Meet the Press,'' March 16, 2003



''I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that's a storybook, man.''

—Joe Biden, referring to Barack Obama at the beginning of the 2008 Democratic primary campaign, Jan. 31, 2007


''People have got to know whether or not their President is a crook. Well, I'm not a crook. I've earned everything I've got.''

—Richard Nixon at a November 17, 1973 news conference

''If I were a single man, I might ask that mummy out. That's a good-looking mummy.''

—Bill Clinton, on ''Juanita,'' a newly discovered Incan mummy on display at the National Geographic museum


''During my service in the United States Congress I took the initiative in creating the Internet.''

—Vice President Al Gore, during the 2000 presidential campaign


''I promise you, the president has a big stick. I promise you.''

—Joe Biden, citing Theodore Roosevelt's famous quote, ''Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far'' (April 26, 2012)

''Folks, I can tell you I've known eight presidents, three of them intimately.''

—Joe Biden, Aug. 22, 2012


''Republicans understand the importance of bondage between a mother and child.''

—Dan Quayle

''It depends on what the meaning of the words 'is' is.''

—Bill Clinton, during his 1998 grand jury testimony on the Monica Lewinsky affair

''I was under medication when I made the decision to burn the tapes.''

—Richard Nixon


''Well, I learned a lot....I went down to (Latin America) to find out from them and (learn) their views. You'd be surprised. They're all individual countries''

—President Ronald Reagan

''A zebra does not change its spots.''

—Al Gore
''I want to say one thing to the American people. I want you to listen to me. I'm going to say this again: I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky. I never told anybody to lie, not a single time; never. These allegations are false. And I need to go back to work for the American people.''

—Bill Clinton, Jan. 26, 1998


''Facts are stupid things.''

—Ronald Reagan, at the 1988 Republican National Convention, attempting to quote John Adams, who said, ''Facts are stubborn things''

''I am not worried about the deficit. It is big enough to take care of itself.''

—President Ronald Reagan

'When I meet with world leaders, what's striking -- whether it's in Europe or here in Asia...''

—President Obama mistakenly referring to Hawaii as Asia while holding a press conference outside Honolulu, Nov. 16, 2011
http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/bl-barack-obama-quotes.htm?PS=548%3A16

[Skol]

Skid,
----------------------
Skol i do own some gold.Not a truckload but some- prices I paid range from $30-$500 /oz for it so yes I have owned it for some time and even with gold at $2000/oz havent sold.[It is my insurance against American stupidity.Which is not confined to the Bushes
----------------------

Not selling it at $1,900 was a mistake, because it's not going back there any time soon. The world is recovering, all is well, this century won't be the Chinese century, it's probably going to be the American century the way things are going in China.

[Skol]

Here's a laugh-lots of chinese 'aunties' have been buying gold for some reason westerners are unable to fathom. This is from Bloomberg-what the papers had to say about the aunties.
----------------

On Sunday, Shanghai-based Liberation Daily, a newspaper owned by the Shanghai Communist Party, not only joined other news outlets in comparing the gold-shopping habits of aunties to grocery shopping but also suggested: “Their knowledge of banking and finance is close to zero, so their investments change with the winds. They’re also based on feelings, as well as the advice of close friends.”

--------------------------
lol

[Skol]

Another bad day for gold and silver. Gold $1,429, XGD down 4.8%.
When will it end?
Not anytime soon.

Any guesses when gold will hit $1,000? Mine is about January next year.

[elZorro]

Another bad day for gold and silver. Gold $1,429, XGD down 4.8%.
When will it end?
Not anytime soon.

Any guesses when gold will hit $1,000? Mine is about January next year.

I'm just locking in that estimate Skol - we'll see if the Gold bugs are closer to the price direction. US$1350 to $1400 is the current average rock-bottom breakeven on mining investment, so after the shorters have finished, it should recover back past its previous high, as gold always does eventually.

[Skol]

EZ,

What does mining investment have to do with the gold price?

[Skol]

Another bad day coming up for gold shares.

HUI -2.5%
GDX -2.45%
GDXJ -2.87%

[elZorro]

EZ,

What does mining investment have to do with the gold price?

Supply and demand? If hardly any supply is available below US$1400 an ounce within say 2-3 years, the price will have to go up, if there is a reasonable demand. Miners will quickly run out of cashflow, and investors, if the price drops away too much. In fact if you look at big goldmining company shareprices, they will literally follow the US$gold price all day when trading. Investment in this sector pulls away fast when the PoG drops. You argue that the cheapest mines will carry on, the others will close up, problem solved. Except that this would place more pressure on all the gold above ground.

There have been some incredible correlations between the gold price and other factors shown on this thread. Gold is strongly linked to the oil price, the inverse of the US$ basket value, and even more so to the amount of foreign investment in US bonds. So the shorters can have their fun, make their millions, while the sharemarket puts on an act of general recovery. Some are making money, sure, but how much of it is due to the extra trillions sloshing around looking for a productive home?

http://www.ino.com/blog/2013/05/gold-chart-of-the-week-36/

[Skol]

The mines will close down, it's that simple. There'll be no demand if the price keeps falling, owning gold at the moment is a bit like having leprosy, if it gets to $1,000, no one on earth will want it and the price will keep plunging and loads of gold will be out there for anyone who feels they need it.

Too bad about investors, they're already in the Schiff, $1,000 gold will just bankrupt a few more, money's coming out of non-productive assets like gold and silver into the stockmarket.

I'd love $1 for every time I've seen posted on the internet, 'the bottom's in'. lol

There's no relationship between the cost of production and the gold price. It's like this strange idea that goldbugs have about real gold and 'paper' gold-there's no difference, one is more liquid and easier to purchase and dispose of than the other.

[skid]

Skid,
----------------------
Skol i do own some gold.Not a truckload but some- prices I paid range from $30-$500 /oz for it so yes I have owned it for some time and even with gold at $2000/oz havent sold.[It is my insurance against American stupidity.Which is not confined to the Bushes
----------------------

Not selling it at $1,900 was a mistake, because it's not going back there any time soon. The world is recovering, all is well, this century won't be the Chinese century, it's probably going to be the American century the way things are going in China.
It was'nt me who said that Skol--your starting to sound like your favorite president.
BUT I do agree with what he is saying.
You just dont get the concept of having a small amount of Gold as insurance ,just in case the unthinkable happens.
Your to busy trying to make money in the short term.--some say that is a bit reckless. All will say its reckless if it happens.
If it doesnt ,well we haven't made quite as much money,but our family knows we were looking out for them nevertheless.

[skid]

[QUOTE=Skol;406416]I've been drawing my conclusions about gold for years, it's on the 'skids'. lol

Up to more of that Skollduggery are we?

[Skol]

Stocks off to the races today while gold's down to $1426.

HUi -1.23%
GDX -1%
GDXJ -1.26%

[Skol]

Dip back down to $150 circa 2009 would be a great buying opportunity for HUI eh Skol?

Could be, that'll be $700 gold, sounds about right.

[Daytr]

Hi All, just joined after being on HC for a number f years but as now based in NZ thought I may as well sign in here as well & I see Skol posts here as well so I'm sure there will be plenty of banter. I for one am bullish gold medium to long term, however short term it could go lower as the money printers keep inflating the party balloons in the equity markets that will eventually burst & it will be very ugly indeed. My floor gold is around $1250 where the marginal cost of production kicks in, not sure if we will get there or not but can't see it much lower, alternatively I do see it a lot higher in the coming years. Now for transparency reasons I should mentioned that I have traded gold for 15 years for banks & have now moved back to NZ to set up a Australian Equity Resources based fund mostly concentrating on gold stocks. So you may think I am talking my book, but its in reality what I believe & am certainly no gold bug. Anyway if you have any interest in looking at the fund, give me a shout. Cheers Daytr

[Skol]

XGD down 2.7% today, now withing striking distance of it's lowest level since 2005. If it falls 11% from here could be a serious correction - downwards of course.

[Skol]

A very bad day coming for gold stocks. Gold $1392.

HUI -4.9%
GDX -4.3%
GDXJ -8%

There's no stopping this one.

[Skol]

The stars are aligning for a gold implosion, an improving US economy, reduced deficit due to spending cuts and increased taxation, housing on the move, end of QE, crashing gold indices and a strengthening USD.

[Skol]

Another bad day for gold and silver. Gold $1,429, XGD down 4.8%.
When will it end?
Not anytime soon.

Any guesses when gold will hit $1,000? Mine is about January next year.

I'm just locking in that estimate Skol - we'll see if the Gold bugs are closer to the price direction. US$1350 to $1400 is the current average rock-bottom breakeven on mining investment, so after the shorters have finished, it should recover back past its previous high, as gold always does eventually.

Might have to move my estimate for $1,000 gold a little forward. In 2013 gold has declined at $2.22/day, at the current rate gold will hit $1,000 in mid-November.
A crash will move it even further forward of course.

[skid]

Hi All, just joined after being on HC for a number f years but as now based in NZ thought I may as well sign in here as well & I see Skol posts here as well so I'm sure there will be plenty of banter. I for one am bullish gold medium to long term, however short term it could go lower as the money printers keep inflating the party balloons in the equity markets that will eventually burst & it will be very ugly indeed. My floor gold is around $1250 where the marginal cost of production kicks in, not sure if we will get there or not but can't see it much lower, alternatively I do see it a lot higher in the coming years. Now for transparency reasons I should mentioned that I have traded gold for 15 years for banks & have now moved back to NZ to set up a Australian Equity Resources based fund mostly concentrating on gold stocks. So you may think I am talking my book, but its in reality what I believe & am certainly no gold bug. Anyway if you have any interest in looking at the fund, give me a shout. Cheers Daytr

welcome aboard Daytr--very informative post

[Daytr]

Thanks Skid. Skol you are VERY optimistic in regards the US economy which I agree is improving however there was really only one way for it to go since 2008 as it was either improve or collapse. You say reduced deficits, I assume you mean year on year, not that the actual deficit will be reducing i.e. they will go into surplus? Stocks are the biggest bubble imo, gold was in a bubble when it went to $1920 & you can tell the way it traded that it was going to pop, similar to how I see the US equity markets right now. They cannot afford to withdraw QE or the equity bubble will burst & violently. The only reason US equities are rising is yield, which isn't hard to compete when rates are zero, however its a game of diminishing returns. I would love to see a chart of PE ratios for the Dow & S&P, I'll try & dig one out. Gold is having an almighty correction however if you think that the world's problems are solved then you are sorely mistaken. Japan is a sovereign default waiting to happen & who knows what could happen in Europe. Meanwhile the economies that are actually travelling ok mainly the BRICs & the up & comings are buying gold. So whilst short term I can see gold lower i.e. $1250ish, I am on the side of the global populous who still have a love affair with gold i.e. Asia.

[Skol]

Daytr,

The people in Asia who are having a love affair with gold are the chinese aunties, a group of amateur investors lampooned even by their own newspapers. Despite the aunties frenetic buying the price of gold is still falling, so it's reasonable to assume that once the aunties fall out of love with gold we'll see an even faster fall.

The world is ticking over fine, China is a real worry, could even see Japan outpace it to become the second biggest economy in the World again.


Goldbugs have been banging on for years about the coming US crash, it's a load of codwallop, I can't believe that they still actually believe it themselves it's so worn out, and of course as gold languishes, if I can use that word, the goldbug conspiracy theories flourish, banksters, the Rothschilds, Bernanke, JP Morgan, Goldmans, the 'invisible hand', it's hilarious. Half the problem has got to be the goldbug propensity to rely on nonsense from KWN, Jim Sinclair, Peter Schiff, Mike Maloney and all the other psychics. The XGD down a whopping 5.7% today, it's unstoppable.

I'm not sure how you come to the conclusion that the minimum price of gold has something to do with the cost of production. This guy obviously disagrees with you, so do I.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100739703

[Daytr]

Skol, I am an ex Bankster, your term (and I know the gold bugs) not mine. Sorry where were you in 2008? The Western world financial system was on the brink of collapse & unfortunately not much has been fixed since. You reference the aunties in China is quite frankly rubbish. Yes there are many 'aunties' as you put in buying gold in fact some 223 tones of it in April! Indian is estimated to buy 900 tons this year despite the government trying to limit the amount of gold imported. The only reason we didn't see the banking crisis worsen was that after the Lehmans experiment Governments realized they couldn't afford for the banks to fail & bailed tem out with tax payer money. Anyway my view on gold is based on the printing presses which keep running & its economics 101 & proven throughout history that this simply doesn't work. In fact I am yet to hear from anyone on why QE will work & wont end up being the biggest economic stuff up in history. It buys time & that's all it does, whilst deflating your currency & in turn wealth. So you can right off China all you like in regards its future impact on the demand for gold, for mine they have only just begun as they were denied access to gold ownership until very recently & have always had a strong affinity for gold. The world is ticking over fine... When Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of over 200% & with mounting pension liabilities it cannot afford to service let alone an ageing population which means the ratios are only going to get worse, a lot worse. Europe is a complete basket case & nothing, has been fixed there just bailed out. But the world is ticking over just fine... What we are seeing right now is a yield trade where the whole market wants a return so all money is heading in one direction to dividend paying stocks forcing the market to levels which are unsustainable. I'm not saying the US will collapse, but it could, however I do think its in for an almighty correction. Anyway Skol, its good to have someone to get me into the swing of things on STNZ.

[Daytr]

Skol, I just had a chance to listen to the link, thanks for posting. So the Hedgy is talking down gold, no rhyme or reason other than its out of favour. Never known own a Hedgy to talk his book! LOL. Short term gold could go below the cost of production, however its obviously not sustainable & I notice the other guy had a similar view to mine. One thing in regards Hedgys, they wont sail up wind, so I don't see them even bothering to try & take gold below cost of production as they will be fighting an up hill battle.

[Skol]

Talking of gold 'experts' I had a verbal spar with the dude who runs Goldoz a while back, who described me as a 'serial nuisance'.

www.goldoz.com.au

Probably I am a serial nuisance to gold bulls who push all this KWN BS, but since our falling out I'm the one who's right and Goldoz's 'experts' are the ones who are wrong, and a little bit of a stooge around on his website reveals all is not well, his gold portfolio updates are 5 months behind. Why is that do you think? His latest newsletter should be required reading.

Gold 'expert' John Paulson is losing millions per day, and a few weeks back he lost a $1.5 billion in a couple of days, when the pressure gets excruciating you'll see Paulson bail out of his airplane before it crashes and burns, and many gold sheeple will follow.

[BIRMANBOY]

Love affair huh? There is no love affair ..it comes down to money...lose money...bail out..thats whats happening.it will get worse. Can you make money on gold ...sure ..bail out now while you still have something ...wait till it drops down to 800 or so and buy back in. Other wise its a well flogged horse on the fast track to the nackers I'm afraid.
Thanks Skid. Skol you are VERY optimistic in regards the US economy which I agree is improving however there was really only one way for it to go since 2008 as it was either improve or collapse. You say reduced deficits, I assume you mean year on year, not that the actual deficit will be reducing i.e. they will go into surplus? Stocks are the biggest bubble imo, gold was in a bubble when it went to $1920 & you can tell the way it traded that it was going to pop, similar to how I see the US equity markets right now. They cannot afford to withdraw QE or the equity bubble will burst & violently. The only reason US equities are rising is yield, which isn't hard to compete when rates are zero, however its a game of diminishing returns. I would love to see a chart of PE ratios for the Dow & S&P, I'll try & dig one out. Gold is having an almighty correction however if you think that the world's problems are solved then you are sorely mistaken. Japan is a sovereign default waiting to happen & who knows what could happen in Europe. Meanwhile the economies that are actually travelling ok mainly the BRICs & the up & comings are buying gold. So whilst short term I can see gold lower i.e. $1250ish, I am on the side of the global populous who still have a love affair with gold i.e. Asia.

[Skol]

Daytr,

"Skol, I am an ex Bankster, your term (and I know the gold bugs) not mine. Sorry where were you in 2008? The Western world financial system was on the brink of collapse & unfortunately not much has been fixed since. You reference the aunties in China is quite frankly rubbish."

Is it? This is from last Sunday's Shanghai Newspaper.
--------------------------------------------

On Sunday, Shanghai-based Liberation Daily, a newspaper owned by the Shanghai Communist Party, not only joined other news outlets in comparing the gold-shopping habits of aunties to grocery shopping but also suggested: “Their knowledge of banking and finance is close to zero, so their investments change with the winds. They’re also based on feelings, as well as the advice of close friends.”

------------------------------------------

Where was I in 2008.? Reading the FT, which gave me plenty of warning that a world recession was imminent, whereupon I relegated 50% of my superannuation to cash. Those in a similar situation to me who didn't, found themselves about $100,000 down. The day that Lehman Bros collapsed I visited the Docklands Museum in London, and as I walked back to West London I watched the Lehman's banksters out on the footpath with their brown boxes and TV cameras in attendance. That's what happens when you leverage your assets 35 times and the market goes against you.

And these are the Oxbridge educated 'experts'. What a laugh.

[BIRMANBOY]

Your floor gold may be 1250 but actual cost of production is somewhere in the 600-700 according to WIKI..see my previous post..think it was 4651. Unfortunately it appears you actually are either "talking your book" or misinformed.
Hi All, just joined after being on HC for a number f years but as now based in NZ thought I may as well sign in here as well & I see Skol posts here as well so I'm sure there will be plenty of banter. I for one am bullish gold medium to long term, however short term it could go lower as the money printers keep inflating the party balloons in the equity markets that will eventually burst & it will be very ugly indeed. My floor gold is around $1250 where the marginal cost of production kicks in, not sure if we will get there or not but can't see it much lower, alternatively I do see it a lot higher in the coming years. Now for transparency reasons I should mentioned that I have traded gold for 15 years for banks & have now moved back to NZ to set up a Australian Equity Resources based fund mostly concentrating on gold stocks. So you may think I am talking my book, but its in reality what I believe & am certainly no gold bug. Anyway if you have any interest in looking at the fund, give me a shout. Cheers Daytr

[Daytr]

Hi Birmanboy, I did say the MARGINAL cost of production, not the average cost of production. i.e. $1250 is where production will start being affected. Some mines in Australia have already closed just recently however probably shouldn't have been in production anyway. $6-700 is the average cash cost not the total cost which is around $850 I believe & then you need to make a return on capital minimum of at least 20% so you are in excess of $1000/ounce. So perhaps you might want to take that back? I have been quite open about my book & experience so you can say I am talking it, or I'm putting my money where my mouth is. Anyway good to be on board with people interested in the gold market in NZ. So Skol nice to see you came through the GFC unscathed. I would be interested in your thoughts on QE & why you think it will work? I'm not being sarcastic, I am truly interested. Also do you have a target for the DOW & S&P?

[Skol]

Your floor gold may be 1250 but actual cost of production is somewhere in the 600-700 according to WIKI..see my previous post..think it was 4651. Unfortunately it appears you actually are either "talking your book" or misinformed.

Birmanboy, you are correct.

A book I have here, 'Gold Bubble', which went on the shelves when gold was $1,900 (good timing) says:

"A large gap between the cost of mining and production (around $600/oz) and the actual selling price of gold ($1,900) points to overspeculative gold prices.

[BIRMANBOY]

Money where your mouth is? I doubt whether there would be enough room? Your foot in there would take up a certain amount of space wouldn't it? I'm not interested in the gold market at all...just hate to see people get talked into "imminent rise", "trust me I'm a banker", "rebound around the corner". "gold is as safe as ...fill in the blank". Too many speculators and most of them being herded by even bigger speculators and scammers.
Hi Birmanboy, I did say the MARGINAL cost of production, not the average cost of production. i.e. $1250 is where production will start being affected. Some mines in Australia have already closed just recently however probably shouldn't have been in production anyway. $6-700 is the average cash cost not the total cost which is around $850 I believe & then you need to make a return on capital minimum of at least 20% so you are in excess of $1000/ounce. So perhaps you might want to take that back? I have been quite open about my book & experience so you can say I am talking it, or I'm putting my money where my mouth is. Anyway good to be on board with people interested in the gold market in NZ. So Skol nice to see you came through the GFC unscathed. I would be interested in your thoughts on QE & why you think it will work? I'm not being sarcastic, I am truly interested. Also do you have a target for the DOW & S&P?

[Daytr]

Skol, sorry but that is incorrect. If you are referring to cash costs ie. operating costs then you are close but its probably closer to $700/ounce. Total costs including capex is higher again & then as I said a return needs to be made. See an article about Barrick the largest gold producer in the world their cash costs were $561, but all in costs were $919/toz & they are cheaper than most producers, so the average is higher than that.

[Daytr]

Sorry link to article. http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2013/04/24/barrick-gold-unveils-new-miner-paradigm-rising-costs-and-falling-gold-prices/

[Daytr]

Birmanboy, thanks for the personal tirade, says more about you than me. Have I attacked anyone? Have I said, trust me ? I have offered opinions, views from my 15 years of being a professional gold trader & mine financier. So I have a view, but apparently you aren't interested in gold so it shouldn't matter to you. Put my foot in it eh? Not sure what evidence you have of that, however your stated cost of production being around 30-40% below the real cost of production i.e. total cost suggests as you say you have no interest in gold. Anyway guys suggest we keep it clean, its a small community which I have just joined however I didn't expect to be attacked fore having a view.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Daytr he is just one sad cat

[Daytr]

LOL PTC. I just walked my dog called Possum! haha

[Skol]

Daytr,

"Also do you have a target for the DOW & S&P? "

A figure I have in mind for the DJIA is 19,000 in 2 years time. Stock indices tend to bounce back after periods of lethargy. The 'psychics' who push gold and silver like KWN have hoodwinked millions of suckers into believing that the world economy is at the endgame, which of course is a lot of crap, because human beings have a habit of getting on with things no matter how bad the circumstances, which is why I have no time whatsoever for tossers like Mike Maloney, Peter Schiff, Ron Paul, Glenn Beck and heaps of others who push the Armageddon scenario, scaring a lot of gullible punters who are now losing heaps by the day.

Gold produces nothing, as Warren Buffett says quite correctly, "it has no utility".

[Daytr]

Thanks Skol, so I assume you think they will still be running with QE for the next 2 years to reach your target or do you think stocks can keep moving higher having being weaned off QE? There lies the problem for me I don't think they can as in my view the only reason they are moving higher is due to zero interest rates & QE. But each entitled to their own opinion of course. I am not a fan of KWN & a lot of gold bugs irritate me as quite often their views are founded on ignorance however I am still bullish & even though I agree gold makes no sense in monetary terms, it makes a lot more sense than cash that can just be printed at least there is a cost to its production where as cash there isn't. In my view we think we are a lot more sophisticated than we are in reality & that we can have currencies that reflects value when the very people responsible for I,t the CBs are valuing it at basically zero via interest rates & are printing 85bln of it a month in the US & Europe & Japan are doing the same. Gold's bubble was caused by QE however it was in a 7-8 year bull market before QE was even heard of & many of the reasons for gold's bull market that started back in 2001ish still exist today & once I believe gold consolidates around $1250ish it then rebuilds. Paulsen I don't believe will capitulate otherwise he would have by now & it would take that & gold producers to go back to hedging for gold to go below cost of production & stay there for any period of time. So you are right gold doesn't make a lot of sense, but it hasn't for thousands of year, it just makes a lot more sense to me than currencies that are being printed like they are going out of fashion. Or perhaps they are, going out of fashion that is... All I see is gold being seen as a hedge against devaluing currencies & being bought more & more by the Chinese in the coming years, Central Banks will keep buying & production staying relatively stable. So that is enough for me to think we will see gold move back to much higher levels & I think eventually new highs.

[Skol]

Daytr,
I wish you the best for your fund but I'm afraid you'll be pushing Schiff uphill, because as a long term investment gold is an abject failure. It has its moments like 1980 and 2000-2011, but that's it. I've heard all that stuff you're telling me before from the 'experts', but I'm right and they're wrong, which makes me grateful I never went to university and ended up an academic telling other people how to invest their money. All you have to do is do what the 'experts' say in reverse.lol

Goldbugs are licking their wounds, and will be for a long time to come. Gold will spike upwards from time-to-time whereupon the goldbugs will say 'the bottom's in', as they have said dozens of times before as gold makes it's inexorable way south. The fun hasn't started yet.

""To take an extreme example [of price volatility], while a dollar invested in bonds in 1801 would be worth nearly a thousand dollars by 1998, a dollar invested in stocks that same year would be worth more than half a million dollars. All this is in real terms, taking inflation into account. Meanwhile, a dollar invested in gold in 1801 would by 1998 be worth just 78 cents.""

[Pumice]

$1375 another leg down. Not looking for good for gold.

seems to be a story of USD strengh.

[Daytr]

Thanks Skol, as I said each to their own. The world has never seen the money printing on the scale we are seeing now or the levels of sovereign debt. I suppose where our view differs significantly is that you think all is rosy in the world economy & if I had that view I would be bearish gold as well, although I still think the Chinese 'Aunties' will have their say. However I don't think the world economy is anywhere near ok. The ETF position was always going to hurt gold at some point I was never a fan of it as it helped create the bubble in gold and now is hurting gold.

[elZorro]

Hi Daytr, welcome to the thread, I'm on the positive side for gold as well.

I have to agree with you about the reasoning for the floor in the gold price: big miners are not hedging yet, smaller explorers and junior miners are out of the game generally, while bigger companies spend hundreds of millions to get to the mining stage. They'll only do that if they think they'll get a return, so the fact that most sound mining projects are still in process and not on hold, says that those in the know generally have faith in a sensible gold price. Have you seen the strong correlation between the US gold price and the amount of US bonds held by foreigners? Very interesting, and not something BB or Skol will admit is striking. The 'DOW buys Gold' chart is also illuminating.

James Turk (bullion seller) puts forward his thoughts on gold. (http://www.ino.com/blog/2013/05/gold-and-bitcoin-currencies-of-the-future-james-turk/)

Up to date gold/dow ratio and implications for silver etc. (http://www.stockhouse.com/columnists/2013/may/16/silver-and-the-dow)

[Daytr]

Thanks elZorro. Interesting interview.

[Skol]

Gold is going to get crushed according to Credit Suisse: Below $1,000

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-16/gold-seen-falling-to-1-100-an-ounce-in-a-year-by-credit-suisse.html

[airedale]

Hi Daytr, you might have the answer to something that I have been thinking about. When governments confiscate the public's gold. Take the US for example. Uncle Sam says ok hand it in for a certain price. Do they rely on people doing what they are told? If you have it under the mattress or in the garden, how do they know about it? Perhaps they just rely on the fact that as there is no market people will sell to the government for the government price.

[Skol]

Hi Daytr, you might have the answer to something that I have been thinking about. When governments confiscate the public's gold. Take the US for example. Uncle Sam says ok hand it in for a certain price. Do they rely on people doing what they are told? If you have it under the mattress or in the garden, how do they know about it? Perhaps they just rely on the fact that as there is no market people will sell to the government for the government price.

A good example of classic goldbug paranoia and downright mischeviousness. Confiscation - don't talk nonsense.

[airedale]

Skol, I am not saying that it is going to happen, but historically it has happened a few times around the world. I am merely wondering about the way it has happened.

[Daytr]

Airedale, I'm with Skol on that one, as in I can't see it happening again like it did in the US in the great Depression. We have seen Cyprus trying to confiscate funds from people's accounts in exchange for shares in the banks & this sort of behavior could be repeated, however I don't think we are likely to see any gold specific oppression as such, not in the 1st world economies anyway.

[JBmurc]

Interesting when you looking at many other fiat currencies of gold value ...hardly a collapse in YEN ...

http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/index.html?currency=jpy&timePeriod=10y&flag=gold&otherChart=no

[Skol]

EZ,

Your good buddy James Turk says:
--------------

I guess it comes down to a question of age. If you are older, you want to be more conservative and take less risk. If you are younger, you might want to take more risk. For me, the rule of thumb is that you should have gold bullion equal to your age. A 65-year-old pursuing a less-risky portfolio strategy should have 65% of his or her assets in gold bullion and the rest in various investments. A 25-year-old can have 25% of his or her assets in gold bullion and invest the remaining 75%, which means the portfolio has less liquidity and more risk.

------------------------


I'd have to be completely loopy to have assets in gold equivalent to my age. This is the kind of advice that gets suckers into all kinds of trouble, I can't even imagine what this idiot is thinking. As gold currently plunges older people would be getting wiped out, how stupid is that? Turk should be in jail.

It's outrageous and utterly reprehensible, it's no wonder I despise these gold charlatans.



James Turk (bullion seller) puts forward his thoughts on gold. (http://www.ino.com/blog/2013/05/gold-and-bitcoin-currencies-of-the-future-james-turk/)

Up to date gold/dow ratio and implications for silver etc. (http://www.stockhouse.com/columnists/2013/may/16/silver-and-the-dow)

[elZorro]

I didn't say I agreed with all of it.. especially that bit you found. That's (JT) dumbing the message down a bit too far. Guess we all have our barrows to push. I see gold's making a move towards over $1400 again though.

[Halebop]

I didn't say I agreed with all of it.. especially that bit you found. That's (JT) dumbing the message down a bit too far. Guess we all have our barrows to push. I see gold's making a move towards over $1400 again though.

I think it's a bit more cynical than that. The median 25 year old has nothing so 25% of nothing is nothing. He's telling the people with the most money (but the least income) to effectively go all in on gold. A looney concept that smacks of talking his book.

[skid]

Agreed-If the past years has taught us anything,its to be careful out there and dont put all your eggs in any basket.To many oldies got burned with Hanover and the likes-the same can happen with Gold-shares-or anything.
IMO its a time to be conservative,especially for the old with a nest egg

[Skol]

Gold down another $30, we're on the cusp of entering uncharted territory, gold below $1350, where it bounced about a month ago. In the meantime stock indices worldwide are going to the moon, even the Greek index (a country goldbugs thought would precipitate a global crash) is up 122% in the last year.

Last year:

Dow +24%
N225 +75%
Dax +33%
FTSE +28%
HSI +22%
-----------
Gold -15%

[JBmurc]

The FED admits it doesn't own any real gold only cert.(paper contracts)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhkOLhsUDtM

[Skol]

The FED admits it doesn't own any real gold only cert.(paper contracts)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhkOLhsUDtM

Ron Paul and his pathetic conspiracy theories lol. I'm surprised Paul isn't bankrupt after all the money he's thrown at mining juniors, no wonder he wants a gold standard.
I thought the clip was quite clear - the Fed doesn't own any gold - end of story.

The Fed probably has as much interest in gold as they have in the price of lead or feeder cattle.

[JBmurc]

Ron Paul and his pathetic conspiracy theories lol. I'm surprised Paul isn't bankrupt after all the money he's thrown at mining juniors, no wonder he wants a gold standard.
I thought the clip was quite clear - the Fed doesn't own any gold - end of story.

The Fed probably has as much interest in gold as they have in the price of lead or feeder cattle.


Well shows how much you know about the FED .....which is meant to hold 6000+ tons of gold ....mostly other central banks gold....like Germany that wanted it's 300tons back ? but the FED stated they'll need several years to get it to them ?? ...you have to be pretty stupid
not to see how it's all playing out ....lower the price = lower the interest =hope they don't come knocking for their gold bars as they have leased it out ....

[Skol]

Well shows how much you know about the FED .....which is meant to hold 6000+ tons of gold ....mostly other central banks gold....like Germany that wanted it's 300tons back ? but the FED stated they'll need several years to get it to them ?? ...you have to be pretty stupid
not to see how it's all playing out ....lower the price = lower the interest =hope they don't come knock for their gold bars as we have leased it out ....

You didn't listen to the clip, the TREASURY owns the gold, not the Fed.

And it's another goldbug conspiracy theory that the Germans can't have their gold back, the Bundesbank have said so. Give up on the conspiracies and give us all a break JB.

Of all the conspiracy theories I've heard from goldbugs over the last few years, NOT A SINGLE ONE has turned out to be true. Draw your own conclusions folks.

-------------------------------------------------

Status Report of U.S. Treasury-Owned Gold
Overview
The Status Report of U.S. Treasury-Owned Gold (Gold Report):

Reflects gold bullion and gold coins owned by the federal government
Summarizes the fine troy ounces and the book value of gold held by various facilities
Identifies the value of gold coins and bullion on display at Federal Reserve banks; coins and bullion in reserve at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and gold held by U.S. Mint facilities
The book value of gold is currently $42.2222 per troy ounce. The information used to compile this reporting is received from the U.S. Mint, Federal Reserve banks, and FMS.

Current Report: April 30, 2013
---------------------------------------------

JB,

Notice the part that says 'Treasury-Owned gold'.

[JBmurc]

You didn't listen to the clip, the TREASURY owns the gold, not the Fed.

And it's another goldbug conspiracy theory that the Germans can't have their gold back, the Bundesbank have said so. Give up on the conspiracies and give us all a break JB.

Of all the conspiracy theories I've heard from goldbugs over the last few years, NOT A SINGLE ONE has turned out to be true. Draw your own conclusions folks.

-------------------------------------------------

Status Report of U.S. Treasury-Owned Gold
Overview
The Status Report of U.S. Treasury-Owned Gold (Gold Report):

Reflects gold bullion and gold coins owned by the federal government
Summarizes the fine troy ounces and the book value of gold held by various facilities
Identifies the value of gold coins and bullion on display at Federal Reserve banks; coins and bullion in reserve at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and gold held by U.S. Mint facilities
The book value of gold is currently $42.2222 per troy ounce. The information used to compile this reporting is received from the U.S. Mint, Federal Reserve banks, and FMS.

Current Report: April 30, 2013
---------------------------------------------

JB,

Notice the part that says 'Treasury-Owned gold'.

Really well where's the so called international gold held sparky? the US treasury building ?

I'll give you a hand it's located at --33 Liberty street New York- NY

If you don't hold it you don't own it....as Germany has found out

[Skol]

Really well where's the so called international gold held sparky? the US treasury building ?

I'll give you a hand it's located at --33 Liberty street New York- NY

If you don't hold it you don't own it....as Germany has found out

Correct, it's held at the Fed and Fort Knox, but it's owned by the Treasury. The Bundesbank have already skewered the goldbug conspiracy that they can't have their gold back.

From Reuters:
-----------------------------

The German Federal Court of Auditors, which oversees the government's financial management, called last October for an official inspection of the gold reserves stored at foreign central banks, because they have never been fully checked.

"To hold gold as a central bank creates confidence," Thiele said. "If I hold gold in my own vaults, I have to check it myself," he said, adding that "a complete shift is not appropriate."

Beginning this year, the Bundesbank plans to transfer 300 tonnes of gold from the Federal Reserve in New York and all of its gold stored at the Banque de France in Paris, 374 tonnes, to Frankfurt.

By 2020, it wants to hold half of the nearly 3,400 tonnes of gold valued at almost 138 billion euros - only the United States holds more - in Frankfurt, where it stores about a third of its reserves. The rest is kept at the Federal Reserve, the Banque de France and the Bank of England.
--------------------------------------

Notice the part that says a 'complete shift is not appropriate'. Please do more homework.

Meantime goldbugs can look forward to a rough day come Monday, the carnage continued overnight:

HUI -4.1%
GDX -4%
GDXJ -5%

We must be close to the ultimate gold meltdown, the difference between gold share indices and gold is wider than it's ever been.

For the last 2 years.

Gold -10%
Hui -53%
GDX -53%
GDXJ (Ron Paul's favourite 'investment') -70%

Silver -38%
SIL (Silver Miners Index) -46%

[skid]

Gold down another $30, we're on the cusp of entering uncharted territory, gold below $1350, where it bounced about a month ago. In the meantime stock indices worldwide are going to the moon, even the Greek index (a country goldbugs thought would precipitate a global crash) is up 122% in the last year.

Last year:

Dow +24%
N225 +75%
Dax +33%
FTSE +28%
HSI +22%
-----------
Gold -15%

Is this a good reason to buy into shares at this stage???

[Skol]

Is this a good reason to buy into shares at this stage???

Goldbugs are in a quandary, many are losing fortunes if what I read on other websites is true. What to do? Buy or sell.

Don't know how long you've been around skid but if you go to the Peak Oil thread you can check my credentials, you'll see there I debated the peak oilers. As expected I got rubbished as the price of oil spiked higher and higher until the day of reckoning finally arrived and oil fell 78%. Just like gold, the oil indices plunged before oil itself made the final dive from $149 to $32.

Goldbugs argue that all the gold is going east, if it's true who cares, let the chinese aunties lose their money. As oil spiked higher there were plaintive words from the peak oilers how the chinese were very smart people and that they were buying up all the world's oil. Well, if they did, they lost Schiffloads and now US production is going through the roof - peak oil is deader than a dead dingo's donger dude. I argued that as oil got more expensive new technology would emerge, and it has - hydraulic fracturing. OPEC are probably crapping themselves, hopefully pamphlets will turn up in the mail soon begging for the poor starving Arabs.

Goldbugs rubbish 'paper' gold whatever that is, probably something to do with ETFs. It's a handy way of buying and selling gold from the comfort of home, but goldbugs argue that you must own 'physical' gold for some reason I've never quite fathomed. The idea of storing gold or silver at home seems quite primitive, and dangerous. A $60,000 gold bar went missing not far from here a couple of years back. And of course there's the amusing story I've posted here before about the guy who buried his gold in the garden. Problem was he died unexpectedly and didn't tell anyone where it was exactly, a true paranoid goldbug, probably believing the conspiracy myths about confiscation. His family dug up the entire backyard, but alas they couldn't find the gold.

Actually 'paper' gold is the same as owning gold shares, you're a part owner of what the mine can produce, but you don't have the gold in your hand, but real gold is illiquid, you've got to deal with other people and the premiums are high.

Lots of goldbugs are furiously hoping that gold will go higher, $2,000 seems to be the number, what gold was supposed to end 2012 at, but they've been hoping for months, and many have 'backed the truck up', only to find they're just in time for the next rout.

$1,000 is much more likely than $2,000, the momentum is downwards.

But getting back to your original question, that's a hard one all right. I dollar-cost-average shares and have done for decades, but trade a little on the ASX. I'm sitting on about 25% cash, so I think it's possible there could be a correction, but it won't crash like the goldbugs hope, there's only one thing that's crashing - PM's.

At least we seem to have gone away from the whining about 'manipulation', the Rothschilds, the Fed engineering the gold price (when they don't own any gold), JP Morgan, Goldmans and other fairy tales, very tiresome.

[Stranger_Danger]

Skol,

I think you're right at the moment, and you're likely to be right for quite a bit longer. You deserve some credit for that.

I hope you are flexible enough to change your mind one day though, because I think you'll need to.

My opinion is that the short term impact of QE - asset reflation and some recovery - is now impacting negatively on gold, but, I think the long term impact of QE and currency wars - inflation and general loss of confidence - will at some stage have quite a different impact.

I've never owned physical gold or a single gold related stock. In general, I'm on Buffet and Munger's side when it comes to gold. Martians would look at us funny, ie what is the point?

I just happen to think in 3-6 months a very selective group of gold mining stocks may make a good contrarian bet, but at a much lower level than today. I think it is quite possible your $1000 prediction could come true, but I think it is equally possible that after that Japan manages to blow up the Yen completely, or other exporting countries retaliate and manage to do the same to their currencies. Then the fun begins!

We shall see.

[Skol]

Hedge funds selling gold 'in a big way'.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/17/us-hedgefunds-commodities-cftc-idUSBRE94G0XV20130517

EZ,

Might have to move my estimate for $1,000 gold from next January to maybe even the next month or two.
---------------------------
With a few more hard losing sessions, we could be down to between $1,050 and $1,100. It could happen over two weeks or it could happen in a couple of days if the market plunges $100 a dip," said Frank McGhee, head precious metals trader at Integrated Brokerage Services in Chicago.
---------------------------

$1,000 gold = $16 silver

The situation seems very bearish, even the most bullish goldbugs are capitulating. I hope they're all backin' the truck up as they said they would if gold got cheaper.
In the meantime 'the big one' approaches.

The CNBC chartist says gold will test $1,000.

[elZorro]

Skol, I think some of the lower gold price is reflected in, or caused by, the high US$ at the moment. It has reached a recent peak, and now it'll be interesting to see if it can stay up in the stratosphere. QE3 continues, and yet other currencies must be devaluing quicker. Many gold miners are in red ink, if their capital costs are added to their cash costs for extraction.

[Beagle]

I've got a few Kg's of silver in the bottom drawer and will leave it at that for a while but I'm watching with interest, seeing as I don't get any, (interest that is) on my silver. You need a sense of humour investing in this sector. I might have a crack at a couple of gold miners in Aussie when the price stabilises...no hurry.
One day the quantitative easing will lead people back to hard assets of all kinds including precious metals but I tend to think that's a little way off yet. I'm in the you don't own it unless you can touch it camp:)
Anyone remember Ray Smith and Goldcorp ?

[BIRMANBOY]

EZ you have an amazing ability to ignore the obvious and attach onto the extraneous. The one and only REASON for gold going up (or down for that matter) is speculation. Forget currency, QE3,4,5 or 6, cash costs etc.etc.etc. It goes up because fearfull peasants are sold a series of rubbish rumours and paranoia inducing fairy tales... and down for exactly the same reason. Its the worst investment because there is no control and there is no accounting for the levels of resiliance or worry in the "investors". Trying to attach a "reason" or rationality is simply ludicrous. Gamblers one and all.
Skol, I think some of the lower gold price is reflected in, or caused by, the high US$ at the moment. It has reached a recent peak, and now it'll be interesting to see if it can stay up in the stratosphere. QE3 continues, and yet other currencies must be devaluing quicker. Many gold miners are in red ink, if their capital costs are added to their cash costs for extraction.

[Skol]

4531

The last time gold crashed it declined for 20 years. Will it be 'different this time'? Probably not.

[elZorro]

Skol: Yes, it will be, because at the end of the 70's everyone was worried about oil being scarce and expensive. A lot of exploration revealed more oil, and Arab states are having their day in the sun. But now we're at the tipping point for production, and until new portable energy sources turn up that are far cheaper than oil, the world economy is in strife.

BB: if there are no other causes other than speculation on the gold price, how do several charts we've been posting show very high correlations against factors like the US$ (negative), the oil price, and particularly the amount of foreign investment in US bonds? (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7449-Gold&p=401028&viewfull=1#post401028) I think you're being too simplistic.

[Daytr]

Skol, times are very different. We have a DOW at record levels in a country that has so may debt issues its not funny. But apparently sovereign, or even at a state level debt doesn't matter? Well I think it does & it will matter significantly in the coming years. By the way gold has crashed a couple of times since 2001 as well & then went on to post new highs. Gold is likely to go lower, as the Western based ETF position reduces & is absorbed.

[Skol]

EZ,

Birman Boy hit the nail on the head. Lots of punters have been suckered in by the likes of King world News, Zerohedge and their fables, mostly it's speculation, greed and ignorance, and right now the whole deal is coming unwound.

Goldbugs like to blame their misfortune on others, but there's only one place they need to look - in the mirror.

Down $14 this morning already, here it comes, silver's getting massacred.

[BIRMANBOY]

See below...this is illustrative of all posts with you....

http://www.google.co.nz/url?source=imglanding&ct=img&q=http://angelaquarles.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/download-3.jpg?w=300&h=249&sa=X&ei=nnaZUdCVPJCUiQeP1IDwCw&ved=0CAwQ8wc4IQ&usg=AFQjCNGUAGDhEMRizUD4OHBWuEEawXclMA


Skol: Yes, it will be, because at the end of the 70's everyone was worried about oil being scarce and expensive. A lot of exploration revealed more oil, and Arab states are having their day in the sun. But now we're at the tipping point for production, and until new portable energy sources turn up that are far cheaper than oil, the world economy is in strife.

BB: if there are no other causes other than speculation on the gold price, how do several charts we've been posting show very high correlations against factors like the US$ (negative), the oil price, and particularly the amount of foreign investment in US bonds? (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7449-Gold&p=401028&viewfull=1#post401028) I think you're being too simplistic.

[JBmurc]

And here my gold/silver low cost producer is up 15% lol

[elZorro]

See below...this is illustrative of all posts with you....

http://www.google.co.nz/url?source=imglanding&ct=img&q=http://angelaquarles.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/download-3.jpg?w=300&h=249&sa=X&ei=nnaZUdCVPJCUiQeP1IDwCw&ved=0CAwQ8wc4IQ&usg=AFQjCNGUAGDhEMRizUD4OHBWuEEawXclMA

That's not very illuminating BB: did you read the post with the charts on it? How about explaining to us all why there is no causal link between two variables, even though the correlation is so high it's irrefutable? If you feel inclined to do some more reading before trying to blow my observations out of the water, try this.

http://bonds.about.com/od/bondinvestingstrategies/a/Chinadebt.htm

China is stuck with the US treasuries, and the US is stuck with China. About the same time China started reducing its treasury holdings in Sept 2011, the gold price peaked, and has trended backwards since. But the effect of overseas countries (including tax havens) buying US Treasuries is to increase the value of the US$ against other currencies. That trend is ongoing, foreign investments overall are up about 10% in the last year. The causal link chart says that gold is due for an increase if the US$ drifts backwards or stays static.

[Skol]

And here my gold/silver low cost producer is up 15% lol

lol?

I wouldn't be laughing if I owned 1500 ounces of silver and the price dropped 60c in one morning.

And down by 57% since its high. Doesn't sound like much of a laughing matter.

Looks like you're down US$42,000. (lol?)

[BIRMANBOY]

Quite right...so 5% of the "investors" are laughing...shame about the other 95%.
What if you bought those 1500 ounces way back in 2001? Me thinks you'd still be laughing... ;)