Gold

[Skol]

well take the house cap off at current share values my Bullion value has held strong prob round 15% which I'm more than happy..if the shares kick into gear it will drop if you add in my gold/silver shares it lifts it to 40-50% ....



JB,

this is what happens when you're overexposed to risk. Gold and silver are high risk, these dudes learned the hard way.

www.stuff.co.nz/business/6753899/Iwi-loses-most-of-Treaty-payout

[JBmurc]

JB,

this is what happens when you're overexposed to risk. Gold and silver are high risk, these dudes learned the hard way.

www.stuff.co.nz/business/6753899/Iwi-loses-most-of-Treaty-payout

Silver high risk ---"demand out strips production" (re-read 100 times) Wake up skol

[Skol]

Silver high risk ---"demand out strips production" (re-read 100 times) Wake up skol

The world has never run out of anything, you've been reading too much silverseek and Silver Institute.

Last year the price of silver crashed because when it got to about $50, 1100 tons hit the market. It only needs the price to go up to locate thousands of tons of gold or silver, and Jon Nadler says the recent topping out of gold at $1700 is because that's when recycled gold is sold.


I've been told for the last 40 years that oil demand is exceeding supply. LOL

[JBmurc]

the silver price crashed because paper promises of 1100 ton of naked silver was most likely sold....the like of the US don't even produce enough silver to meet all of the local bullion demand ....either does most of the western nations....then when you see bullion is tiny compared to industries demand ....you got it big imports from off-shore .....now you think the big user Apple,Samsung,GE,Weapon makers etc want a higher Silver price course not ....

some great reading --
http://www.silver-investor.com/charlessavoie/cs_sep08_MessageToMiners&SilverUsers.swf

[lakedaemonian]

You've been listening to the gold 'experts' who've been consistently wrong.

Noriel Roubini called the proponents of the gold standard 'lunatics and hacks', rubbishing an 'investment' that has no fundamentals.

We undoubtedly still have a way to go but the worst is behind us.

According to the FT, deleveraging could take another 3 years, if gold was gonna 'go the moon' it would have done it by now.

You should really check out Eric Janszen over at iTulip.com

He's an expert......and he hasn't been wrong yet in the last 12+ years on the big picture stuff.

If you're following the chatter from the perpetual goldbug crowd, or the gold haters in the financial services industry which purchase the advertising in the traditional financial media then you're looking in the wrong place for decent analysis......because then you'd be relying on crazy or bias, respectively.

Gold could drop a bit on the next leg down in the financial markets later this year.....if it does, I'll convert more cash into gold....if it doesn't, I'll stay where I'm at.

But it still represents the least bad option out there, until the day it doesn't......which is still quite a ways down the track.

[Skol]

You should really check out Eric Janszen over at iTulip.com

He's an expert......and he hasn't been wrong yet in the last 12+ years on the big picture stuff.

Eric Janszen's your psychic lake?

He's never been wrong?

How come he's forecast $2500 to $5000 for gold? Where is it?

Maybe you should listen to Jon Nadler some more, he doesn't promise the goldbugs infinite riches.

If Nadler said gold was going to Mars and $50,000 he'd be the most popular goldbug analyst on the planet.

[Skol]

ATTENTION ALL GOLDBUGS

You wanna know who the the real banksters and scamsters are?

Here's a list.

www.thevoicemagazine.com/money-finances-business/economy/5000-gold-bandwagon-now-includes-these-65-analysts-got-gold.html

So far every single one of them are wrong.

What's your personal tarot card reader forecast?

Patsys actually pay money for that advice, hard to believe isn't it?

[JBmurc]

well worth a watch if you actually understand that all is not well and most of the western world is going have to go through major short term pain to get back on track from the real growing debt crisis that isn't going away

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyzujydn2AU&feature=related

[elZorro]

JB,

this is what happens when you're overexposed to risk. Gold and silver are high risk, these dudes learned the hard way.

www.stuff.co.nz/business/6753899/Iwi-loses-most-of-Treaty-payout (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/6753899/Iwi-loses-most-of-Treaty-payout)

But here's what happened when a bigger tribe obtained a Treaty settlement, even more lost to opportunists with plausible stories. They learnt from this, and now they are showing the Waikato europeans how to invest (The Base etc). Good on them.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=117717

[elZorro]

Skol, maybe QE3 is just around the corner? This guy doesn't have gold to sell, just shares.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/move-bernanke-qe3-115057583.html

[Skol]

There'll probably be no QE3, retail sales were much better than expected when the numbers were released Monday. Any more good data could finish QE forever.

There's been lower oil prices, a rising USD, gold's correlation with stocks, better than expected European figures, gold stocks in the doldrums, the approaching 'death cross' (50d EMA crossing the 200d EMA) and a stagnant gold price more than likely means the gold boom is over.

DJIA climbed 1.5% last night and gold did nothing, DJIA now 15% ahead of gold for the last 6 months.

Did you know EZ that in 1998 there was the LTCM financial disaster, engineered by some of the smartest people on Earth that nearly imploded the world banking system and required a Fed bailout? Gold did nothing.

Standard Bank said the other day 'gold and silver markets are positioned for weakness'.

[JBmurc]

You didn't watch the Kyle bass interview did you skol ....you should nothing about gold more about the property/debt market

he was very bearish Japan ,Euro short term..... US 3-4yrs out

[lakedaemonian]

Eric Janszen's your psychic lake?

He's never been wrong?

How come he's forecast $2500 to $5000 for gold? Where is it?

Maybe you should listen to Jon Nadler some more, he doesn't promise the goldbugs infinite riches.

If Nadler said gold was going to Mars and $50,000 he'd be the most popular goldbug analyst on the planet.


A bit of background on Janszen.

He called the internet bubble accurately......not only did he get himself out of it whole, but myself and many others....for that alone he saved me 7 figures.

He called the bottom on Gold accurately....he got in at $270 IIRC

He called the credit bubble accurately.

He called the busting of the credit bubble accurately.

He called the busting of the housing market accurately.

He called the zombie real estate market in the US accurately.

He called the top in the silver market approx a year ago(about his only short term trade call he's ever made) less than 48 hours before silver collapsed, allowing his subscribers an outstanding exit opportunity.

He is now calling for China to hit a pretty substantial speed bump, but with China's command driven economy and highly nebulous banking system it's hard to predict with considerable accuracy.

He is also working on a strategy for his subscribers to use for a gold exit, once the time comes.

He has forecast quite high for gold because he believes(as I strongly do) that the global financial system is broken and gold will play a significant factor in the transition to the next GFS 2.0.

If gold didn't matter, why would central banks own so much of it, and why would entrenched financial industry players/media expend so much effort in publicly rubishing it and lobbying for higher taxes on it?

I think many can foresee gold taking a bit of a hit in the next leg down in the GFC, but I think it's quite safe to say it will recover faster and sharper than most anything else in the mix.

Bonds? Yup...worked great for GM bondholders

Stocks? Yup....how's that working on average for the average person with the average portfolio tracking the indexes? DJIA/S&P have been going largely sideways for the last decade plus for the longtime holder...and the last few years looks like a ball bouncing down the stairs.

Property? Property markets are a mess with far more downside risk than upside(in the US/NZ/Canada) and we've seen absolute market collapse in major US markets in the last 5-7 years with considerable inventory still sitting stagnant.

Financial Account security? Yup....just Google John Corzine......ex Governor of NJ, Ex Senator for NJ, ex head of GoldmanSachs, what happened to his customers billion dollars worth of money? Accountability? Justice? Zero.

The return on Gold since the dot com crash or for more recent entrants pretty much beats all other categories and does so with far lower risk.

As Eric has stated, Silver is politically irrelevant, Gold is not.

Where do you receive your financial news? From advertiser supported financial media working hard to shape your investments into their coffers like nearly everyone? Or from someone paid to actually look after your personal interests?

Eric doesn't like gold, nor do I, but it is the least bad option available for wealth preservation.

The only area that seems to be opening up and offering considerable value is private equity for the well capitalized.

Until such time as we see a revised financial system that is stable, consistent, and fair the traditional investment markets of bonds/stocks are a dangerous and rigged game.

Personally, I don't want to see gold at $3000, $4000, or $5000......lots of bad stuff will be happening if, when it does.

I'd prefer to get out with a healthy capital gain at a lower lever, but it would be madness to do so, unless governments and central banks initiated comprehensive and sustainable fiscal/monetary reform and fairness back into the global game of monopoly.

Until we see that, we will see gold continue it's relentless trend up, albeit with considerable volatility along the way and a possibility of another buying opportunity on a dip for the latecomers later this year......but I still reckon Gold finishes the year up between 5% and 15%.

I look forward to going back and reading this thread in 3-5 years time.

How's those airlines doing?

The one's outside the Persian Gulf that is......I see Air Asia has been chopping long-haul routes left, right, and centre.......I just flew with them....incredibly beautiful cabin crew...too bad they sacked London, New Delhi, Christchurch.

Kingfisher is in deep doo doo too......

[lakedaemonian]

In Vietnam, the government has been squeezing and squeezing gold traders.....the only folks left after the dust settles for trading gold in Vietnam will be the government and a very, very small number of well connected large banks.

[Skol]

lake,

The airline business is booming, there's a backlog of 4000 jet aircraft to be built. Convinced?

Eric saw the GFC coming? So did I, you didn't need to be Albert Einstein for that one.

Property? Where I live values have increased 15% in the last 8 months, there's a boom on.

The next boom will probably be on the ASX, good quality shares, not speculative gold rubbish.

You listen to Eric, I'll do my own research.

You mean you pay Eric Janszen? Most of those losers are so far removed from reality they'd have to pay me to listen to them.

[Skol]

You didn't watch the Kyle bass interview did you skol ....you should nothing about gold more about the property/debt market

he was very bearish Japan ,Euro short term..... US 3-4yrs out

No I didn't, Kyle Bass is just another false prophet who loves acclamations when he gets it right and dives for cover when he gets it wrong.

We've had 5 bad years, bad years are always followed by good years, just like the massive property boom going on right here, right now, up 15% in 8 months, I love it.

I'm positioned for that and a boom on the ASX.

I'm not listening to Kyle Bass or anyone else for 1 hour and 6 minutes giving me bad news, I like good news, I'm an optimist and it's all looking pretty good for me, dunno about you.

My shares on the ASX have gone up A$2500 in the last 3 days and 27% since October, you stick with silver in the basement.

Amenedment: I forgot about my trading cash management account in AUD, ASX shares up 34% since October.

Remember that old time song?

'So long sad times
Go long bad times
We are rid of you at last

Howdy gay times
Cloudy grey times
You are now a thing of the past

Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So let's sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again'

You guys prepare for Armageddon.

[JBmurc]

kyle bass tell it like he see's it and he is one very smart hedge fund manager thats profited from some huge calls ...he see's the problem that coming if you want to stay a ignoramus to that ....that's your call

[Skol]

kyle bass tell it like he see's it and he is one very smart hedge fund manager thats profited from some huge calls ...he see's the problem that coming if you want to stay a ignoramus to that ....that's your call



Maybe, but let me give you an example of the property boom around here.

Small 3 brm boxes, 1 bath, say 80sq,m., fairly run-down houses built in the early '70's in the dairy farming days not far from here are selling for $500-$600K. If you want council sewage and water on, then you pay another $20k. Most sell before they get to auction.

My neighbour's house which he had to sell after being caught 'in flagrante delicto' with his wife's best friend recently sold for $2m. The purchaser didn't even negotiate, he just signed.

And you're telling me armageddon's around the corner? LOL

The next boom will be over and you'll still be sitting on heaps of silver.

[JBmurc]

Maybe, but let me give you an example of the property boom around here.

Small 3 brm boxes, 1 bath, say 80sq,m., fairly run-down houses built in the early '70's in the dairy farming days not far from here are selling for $500-$600K. If you want council sewage and water on, then you pay another $20k. Most sell before they get to auction.

My neighbour's house which he had to sell after being caught 'in flagrante delicto' with his wife's best friend recently sold for $2m. The purchaser didn't even negotiate, he just signed.

And you're telling me armageddon's around the corner? LOL

The next boom will be over and you'll still be sitting on heaps of silver.


well I'd say your living in a property bubble area ...NZ property just can't keep going up without household income also going up how can it....NZ has one of the largest household debt per pop in the world...and an average all NZ'er income of round $550 per week(800pw for salary & wages)

Income from all sources: Median weekly income for all people from all sources (including those with no source of income) increased $21 (3.9 percent) to $550 from the June 2010 to June 2011 quarter. Contributing to this was both the increase in median weekly wage and salary income, and the increase in median weekly government transfer income.

[lakedaemonian]

Maybe, but let me give you an example of the property boom around here.

Small 3 brm boxes, 1 bath, say 80sq,m., fairly run-down houses built in the early '70's in the dairy farming days not far from here are selling for $500-$600K. If you want council sewage and water on, then you pay another $20k. Most sell before they get to auction.

My neighbour's house which he had to sell after being caught 'in flagrante delicto' with his wife's best friend recently sold for $2m. The purchaser didn't even negotiate, he just signed.

And you're telling me armageddon's around the corner? LOL

The next boom will be over and you'll still be sitting on heaps of silver.

"Where" is "here"?

What's the average annual wage(not your guess, the facts) "here"?

What's the average price for the average home "here"?

Divide one into the other and kablam, unless everyone is a Google millionaire, you have excessively expensive housing that is unsustainable.

Average housing prices can only froth above a reasonable multiple of the average annual wage for that area for only so long.

Hence the crash of 40-60% or more in the more bubbly areas in the US.

I was just in Southern Florida a bit ago.......even with crashing real estate prices(I personally saw a few that still couldn't sell even with a near 75% discount off of their peak actual sale price) property isn't moving with much velocity.

While the prices have crashed, the total cost of ownership is still high with exploding property taxes, insurance, utilities, and various local government fees filling the void.

And I'm a glass half full kind of guy....I just prefer the odds stacked in my favor....and they currently are still stacked against me.....so I'll sit on the sidelines with my cash and gold until the wind is once again at my back instead of in my face.

You obviously enjoy gambling.

I'll be back in 6 months to a year, unless we see gold dip again and I go on my last big buying spree.

[Skol]

lake,

I'm not going to tell you where I live but yes, the purchasers of these properties might be sitting on them for a long time before they make any capital gain.

I doubt I'm gambling, I like a bit of risk, sometimes a lot, but if you want real risk check out the dudes that are overloaded with gold and silver, that's real gambling. People don't need it, they need food, shelter and clothing.

The overenthusiastic goldbugs are still buying gold even with compelling evidence that the the game's up, they've got a mindset that can't be altered, the world's going to hell and that's it.

Actually it's not, the goldbugs in 1980 thought they were on the road to riches with no risk, because of the supposedly scary economic situation, but they all got creamed.

Nothing's perfect, but if you're positioning yourself for Armageddon your retirement might be pretty miserable.

Need my tractor fixed - mechanic too busy.
Want to send heifers to the works-agent too busy to drop by.
Got a call from a friend the other other day saying his son couldn't get from Christchurch to Auckland because the flights are booked out.
Took my daughters computer for repairs to a major electronics retailer and asked them how business was, "Not so good for the last couple of years but picking up now".
The regular painter I use is too busy ATM.

Yeah, it's all going to hell all right.

[JBmurc]

But thats the problem skol nothing is fixed ....the world debt crisis it's only been pushed down the road .......Japan esp is like the euro heading for a cliff ...Kyle bass explained very clearly what we have in front of us...

[Skol]

Hey JB,

There's a new book out,

'Gold Bubble:Profiting From Gold's Impending Collapse.

How do TV shows, vending machines, Chinese taxi companies, and a former UK prime minister point to a gold bubble that is about to burst? Gold prices are up over 2500 percent since 1970 and more than 600 percent since 1999. Many investors consider gold a "safe haven" that will shelter them from recessions, ...More falling markets, and the depreciating value of currency. Many fail to realize, however, that investing in gold at these levels is extremely risky. Yet there are many warning signs: gold ETFs have made investing in gold available to the common investor and have tremendously increased speculation; the global reliance on emerging markets such as China has fueled the commodity bubble led by gold; TV shows, commercials, and newspaper headlines warn of intense media saturation and frenzy; `We Buy Gold' stores line busy streets and malls, and signal mass awareness; gold miners are no longer protecting themselves from a potential drop in prices; herd-like behavior and intolerance of opposing views - found near peaking popularity - have surfaced; a Chinese taxi company has attempted to buy an Australian gold mine; and gold is even being sold in vending machines! Presenting an in-depth analysis of gold dating back over 100 years, Yoni Jacobs describes: * What structural and precipitating factors have allowed gold to form a bubble. * Why investor psychology of fear and greed is indicating extremely speculative behavior. * Why gold is not recession proof and will fall during an upcoming economic contraction. * What effect the US Dollar and the stock market will have on the future of gold prices. * How to profit from the impending collapse of the gold bubble. Also: Why to avoid Netflix, Cloud Computing, and Facebook investments. '

[elZorro]

There'll probably be no QE3, retail sales were much better than expected when the numbers were released Monday. Any more good data could finish QE forever.

There's been lower oil prices, a rising USD, gold's correlation with stocks, better than expected European figures, gold stocks in the doldrums, the approaching 'death cross' (50d EMA crossing the 200d EMA) and a stagnant gold price more than likely means the gold boom is over.

DJIA climbed 1.5% last night and gold did nothing, DJIA now 15% ahead of gold for the last 6 months.

Did you know EZ that in 1998 there was the LTCM financial disaster, engineered by some of the smartest people on Earth that nearly imploded the world banking system and required a Fed bailout? Gold did nothing.

Standard Bank said the other day 'gold and silver markets are positioned for weakness'.

Skol, I think all of us on this thread keep a good eye on the gold price, it's a useful barometer too. I haven't been looking at the HUI Goldbugs index, and as you correctly point out, it's in decline. Have a look back a few years and you'll see it showed an impending collapse for late 2008, recovery from 2009. But right from 2002 it was in positive territory, easy average gains. It's still well positive, unlike many shares. The current HUI trend helps explain why my goldie's not doing so well.

But more important: the size of the dip in the HUI could be bad news for all stocks in the near future.

[Skol]

EZ,

If you check back last year the HUI sold off a couple of times before gold started declining. The shares will quite often warn of a decline in the underlying commodity as happened with oil in 2008.

I doubt we're on the verge of another crash, there's an election coming up, all the main indexes are up, just that some resources and commodities aren't doing well.

I'm in the BT Natural Resources Fund which has been an outperformer for years (14.15% for the last 10 years) but in the last year it's down 12%.

Other shares I own are doing well, like TLS, TOL, and ALL.

Bad years are always followed by good years, gold's gone up for 10 years now it's in decline as other industries pick up following the slump.

[Skol]

Hey JB,

Didn't you used to bang on about the '5000 year store of value?'

After inflation:

In 1801 if you bought $1 worth of bonds you'd have $1000 in 1998.

In 1801 if you bought $1 worth of stocks you'd have $500,000 in 1998.

In 1801 if you bought $1 worth of gold you'd have 78 cents in 1998.

Maybe gold's only been a 4800 year store of value.

[elZorro]

EZ,

If you check back last year the HUI sold off a couple of times before gold started declining. The shares will quite often warn of a decline in the underlying commodity as happened with oil in 2008.

I doubt we're on the verge of another crash, there's an election coming up, all the main indexes are up, just that some resources and commodities aren't doing well.

I'm in the BT Natural Resources Fund which has been an outperformer for years (14.15% for the last 10 years) but in the last year it's down 12%.

Other shares I own are doing well, like TLS, TOL, and ALL.

Bad years are always followed by good years, gold's gone up for 10 years now it's in decline as other industries pick up following the slump.

Hi Skol, at the moment gold looks like it's preparing for a rally again, and the US$ is dropping. Here's an interesting article, some background about the Nixon administration.

http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/04/so-long-us-dollar/

[Skol]

There was a Max Keiser interview on RT the gold bugs would have loved.

How debt enslaves. How the banks and politicians enslave us with ever increasing amounts of debt.

One or two fair points but mostly the usual conspiracy theory rubbish. Debt isn't mandatory and stupid people that pile up credit-card debt merely enslave themselves.

Fairly simple actually, pay off the mortgage first and live within your means, there was a nothing in the interview about a generation of people who can't do without the latest microwave, wide-screen TV, or iPhone.

A guy I work with owns a few houses. He rents one to some people who lost their own house after being unable to pay the mortgage, so he rents a NEW house to them, $650/week, and they still have the big wide-screen and HSV Holden and other toys they can't do without.

[elZorro]

There was a Max Keiser interview on RT the gold bugs would have loved.

How debt enslaves. How the banks and politicians enslave us with ever increasing amounts of debt.

One or two fair points but mostly the usual conspiracy theory rubbish. Debt isn't mandatory and stupid people that pile up credit-card debt merely enslave themselves.

Fairly simple actually, pay off the mortgage first and live within your means, there was a nothing in the interview about a generation of people who can't do without the latest microwave, wide-screen TV, or iPhone.

A guy I work with owns a few houses. He rents one to some people who lost their own house after being unable to pay the mortgage, so he rents a NEW house to them, $650/week, and they still have the big wide-screen and HSV Holden and other toys they can't do without.

I must be safe then, I don't buy household gear or a vehicle unless I can pay for it from the bank account. For some reason, buying a house on credit (a much bigger purchase) is perfectly OK, but maybe that should be a historic rule.

Getting back to the topic: watch out Skol, as gold is ready to break out. TA says so.


http://equedia.com/blog/view.php/Gold-Ready-to-Break-Out?utm_source=April+29%2C+2012&utm_campaign=April+29%2C+2012&utm_medium=email

[STRAT]

as gold is ready to break out. TA says so. http://equedia.com/blog/view.php/Gold-Ready-to-Break-Out?utm_source=April+29%2C+2012&utm_campaign=April+29%2C+2012&utm_medium=emailThats some pretty broad stroke TA there EZ. I reckon that guy used to paint houses for a living.:D Never believe anything you hear on Fox.:lol:

[Skol]

The game might be up for precious metals.

Google:

Gold drops three straight months for first time since 2001.

[elZorro]

The game might be up for precious metals.

Google:

Gold drops three straight months for first time since 2001.

Gold recovered to rest at $1645 or so. In this survey on INO.com (biased audience perhaps) 62% thought that gold was the best investment right now. That's a lot higher than the general population I'd think, but still surprising.

http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/05/poll-is-gold-the-best-investment/

My silver bar has dropped 16% in value since I bought it - but then I did buy near a speculative recent peak - I have every faith it'll do better than hold its value longer term, and it causes me no worry whatsoever.

[Skol]

EZ,

What did you used to post about the gold/oil ratio, because here it comes for oil, it's on the slippery slope before the election?

Oil down, gold down, right?


US crude oil reserves at a 7 month high and consumption down 1.7% on a year ago.
Demand for gasoline is down 5%.

[elZorro]

EZ,

What did you used to post about the gold/oil ratio, because here it comes for oil, it's on the slippery slope before the election?

Oil down, gold down, right?


US crude oil reserves at a 7 month high and consumption down 1.7% on a year ago.
Demand for gasoline is down 5%.

So oil is down to over $100 a barrel Skol? But yes, the two are linked in a way. I've seen a few comments about the Obama administration wanting to hold everything together until the election, but who knows what'll happen after that. With the last GFC gold dropped a bit and then recovered strongly.

That INO survey didn't separate out bullion holdings (gold/ silver), or gold mining shares. I think that's part of the reason it got to 62%.

A range of views on the outlook for gold in 2012. (http://www.goldinmind.com/gold-updates-news/gold-price-forecasts.html)

[JBmurc]

Yet another day where PM shares got smashed .....doesn't make sense when you look at the 5yr Gold price the moving average is in a strong uptrend PM producer are making a mint....but their market value is decreasing as though they are losing money(which some are)but many others will trade at P/E of 1-3 madness of the mob selling...

[lakedaemonian]

So oil is down to over $100 a barrel Skol? But yes, the two are linked in a way. I've seen a few comments about the Obama administration wanting to hold everything together until the election, but who knows what'll happen after that. With the last GFC gold dropped a bit and then recovered strongly.

That INO survey didn't separate out bullion holdings (gold/ silver), or gold mining shares. I think that's part of the reason it got to 62%.

A range of views on the outlook for gold in 2012. (http://www.goldinmind.com/gold-updates-news/gold-price-forecasts.html)

Marginal cost to produce a barrel of oil is reportedly now up to $92USD.

Good chance we could see Gold drop into the $1500's by northern fall but I reckon will close up for the year.

I will be buying on dips into the $1500's.

If it happens it could be the last chance to get on the bus at a decent dollar cost average entry point for later arrivals before gold continues to ratchet up until the day the IMS is well and truly fixed.

Alas, I'm with those who exited silver near its peak a year ago with no plans on re entry. It would have to come in well under $20 for me to dive back in.

Natural Gas is approaching a bottom.

NG could be like gold in 99 or oil in early 09 in the next 12-18 months.

US $GDP produced for every barrel of oil and every BTU expended has FALLEN circa 25% in the last 10 and 8 years respectively.

That's as scary a figure as the fast declining amount of $GDP produced for every new dollar of debt issued.

[JBmurc]

I agree Nat gas has to be near the bottom or soon they be paying users to take it ...

Gold has solid support It's called Fiat money ,with a new socialist French govt won't be overly keen to preach a balanced budget to other nations and will no doubt go on a spending spree , as socialist governments tend to do...China also isn't far away from pumping billion's though Reserve Requirement Ratio adjustment with the chinese banks and also pumping the bank with funds to loan out by buying their bills,,,,the USA job reports show all is not well Obama will likely start Q.E-3 soon .....overall the mass populations want Inflation over deflation and governments want to be in power....

I disagree on SILVER,,, like gold at 1500 I believe SILVER has major support in the high 20's fact's also back up if gold goes up Silver will follow add in the Geo fact that the earth only holds round 7-8 times more Silver in the ground than Gold the current ratio of 54 is well out of balance

[Skol]

Yet another day where PM shares got smashed .....doesn't make sense when you look at the 5yr Gold price the moving average is in a strong uptrend PM producer are making a mint....but their market value is decreasing as though they are losing money(which some are)but many others will trade at P/E of 1-3 madness of the mob selling...

They got another thrashing last night, HUI down 1.5 %, S&P500 level-pegging.

Just watching CNBC and a gold analyst who has a target on gold of $2500-$4000, Jueig Keiner was being questioned by a panel of presenters on gold.

Pathetic wasn't even the word for it, probably a good description was 'cringe', the guy was lost for words and said that something 'might' happen before the end of the year that could propel gold to $1900-$2100.

To think that people pay for this advice.

[Pumice]

Heres one for you Skol.
Recent words from Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet and the other board member of Bekhire Hathaway.

Taking the shine off gold

'The two continued their recent attack on gold as an investment. As Buffett reminded us, "When we took over Berkshire, gold was at $US20, and Berkshire was at $US15. Gold is now at $US1600 and Berkshire is $US120,000". Enough said.'

[elZorro]

This is a big post but worth reading, follows up on the HUI and other indexes. Need to keep an eye on these. Also mentions Munger.

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=16717
(http://www.acting-man.com/?p=16717)
The HUI fell another 3.9% overnight, gold bearish in all time windows. If I was a TA person like P, I might have spotted this horrible trend in ABX (Barrick Gold) a bit earlier.

[Skol]

Heres one for you Skol.
Recent words from Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet and the other board member of Bekhire Hathaway.

Taking the shine off gold

'The two continued their recent attack on gold as an investment. As Buffett reminded us, "When we took over Berkshire, gold was at $US20, and Berkshire was at $US15. Gold is now at $US1600 and Berkshire is $US120,000". Enough said.'

Hardly an attack, just a fact, and that won't have included the dividends either.

Yep, another 4% off the HUI, another massacre on the XGD coming up. Anyone owning gold or silver is standing in front of a speeding freight train that's had a
brake failure.

[lakedaemonian]

Last chance to get on the gold bus on this dip.

Don't know how low it will go but the lower it goes the more I load up.

Still expect gold to end the year higher. :)

How's gold performed against the DJIA and the S&P over the last 5, 10, 15 years?

Pretty good.

Buffett and Munger are oligarchs in bed with the other entrenched interests backing President Obama.

Aligned interests trying to assassinate gold, which has held up quite well considering.

No matter how bad the finance industry tries to kill it in the media and regulators try to kill the price by raising futures contract reserve requieements gold doesn't die.

I look forward to a couple years out when I can convert my gold into whatever form of paper we use next(or a current one in sufficient quantity) so I can go about my business of buying businesses.

[Pumice]

Looks to be in quite a solid downtrend to me.
I'm long the USD purely on technicals, have been holding for a while because of that. will close when and if the trend reverses.

Gold doesnt look good to me. 1900 to 1580. I might short when it breaks and closes under 1500. (definately needs to break 1525 first, otherwise could be a triple bottom)

[Skol]

Last chance to get on the gold bus on this dip.

Don't know how low it will go but the lower it goes the more I load up.

Still expect gold to end the year higher. :)

How's gold performed against the DJIA and the S&P over the last 5, 10, 15 years?

Pretty good.

Buffett and Munger are oligarchs in bed with the other entrenched interests backing President Obama.

Aligned interests trying to assassinate gold, which has held up quite well considering.


Goldbug paranoia.

No one's trying to 'assassinate' gold, it's a commodity like pork, lead, beef or iron, just no one wants it or needs it, which is why the price is crumblling, it has no utility.

I wasn't actually aware that gold is an intergalactic currency , the Markabians and the Illuminati are stashing it away apparently.

Jeez there's some looneys around.

For gold to end the year at $2000 it will have to increase by 26%. It's only done that one year before, 1979, which was followed by the 1980 crash.

[JBmurc]

Yet another day where PM shares got smashed .....doesn't make sense when you look at the 5yr Gold price the moving average is in a strong uptrend PM producer are making a mint....but their market value is decreasing as though they are losing money(which some are)but many others will trade at P/E of 1-3 madness of the mob selling...

as we can see before each major spike higher gold has first had 3 major pullback I think we are on are third this time imho not long before we spike past recent highs.

[Shaneoz]

Maybe somone might be able to explain the interaction of gold vs the xjo. It seems that there is a inverse reaction, the xjo seems to go up while gold is declining. I think this makes a bit of sense as gold, of late has been used as a hedge against volatility.
Funny part I think, is alot of the gold sector are start up miners and they tend to lead the majors in the first rally. Well they seemed to do so last in the last couple of years. You would expect it to be the other way around with the miners losing ground with gold declining. Or is it that funds tend to be more available during a rally so small companies tend to be seen to be on the rise at those times? All boats rising with the tide maybe?

Out of interest's sake, I think you might be on the money JB with gold about to move higher. It has come back to one of my longer moving averages that I use for gold. It doesnt do this very often and then its usually a big move higher. Only once since December 2001 has it broken through the moving average and then only for 5 months where it formed a sideways pattern around the $800 mark. This will around the 8 - 9th time it has done this since the end of 2001. Most of these have been significant bottoms. Does this mean a risk on/off period for stocks or will they move together for a change?:confused:

[Skol]

as we can see before each major spike higher gold has first had 3 major pullback I think we are on are third this time imho not long before we spike past recent highs.

Grasping at straws JB?

Gold can't get any traction no matter what happens, the USD is on the way up, that commodity is the real safe haven, not shiny metal, which IMO will continue on its southbound journey.

The latest Barron's reports oil inventories in the USA are the highest for 21 years, so we're gonna see the POO drop and gold will more than likely follow.

No recovery in the HUI last night, a brief respite for the XGD yesterday but I think the XGD will keep falling.

You gotta ask yourself JB, gold and silver have had a good run for years, nothing goes on forever, is time up? Probably, something else will be the real winner from now on.

Might be time to liquidate that pile of silver you've got there before it goes rusty.

I've posted Jon Nadler's latest newsletter here for you which makes very interesting reading, note the part about 3415 tonnes of surplus silver.

www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/20120509.html

[elZorro]

US Banks have some explaining to do.

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2012/may2012/morg-m12.shtml

[JBmurc]

It should be noted that M3, a measure of money in the banks, was discontinued by the Federal Reserve a few years ago, probably because the number was increasing so fast, it was embarassing.

For my European readers, or American readers who forgot the numerical definition of very large numbers.

1,000,000,000,000: 1 Trillion dollars
1,000,000,000: 1 Billion dollars
1,000,000: 1 Million dollars


http://silverstockreport.com/2012/money-chart-2012.html

[Pumice]

XAU at 1560
60 more pips and I'll look to sell.
USD has had a solid run of late.

[Skol]

USD up.
Gold down.
Silver down big time.
HUI down 3.31%, another massacre on the XGD coming up.

[JBmurc]

Think we have seen the bottom in this retreat .....I got pretty close last time ...will see if I'm right next few weeks

-6 month low $1540
-12 month low $1486 (I'd be worried if it moves below this over the next few days)
-5yr low $641 (only in Skol wet dreams)

[Skol]

Think we have seen the bottom in this retreat .....I got pretty close last time ...will see if I'm right next few weeks

-6 month low $1540
-12 month low $1486 (I'd be worried if it moves below this over the next few days)
-5yr low $641 (only in Skol wet dreams)

Well as I said above, Jon Nadler says there's a $1527 level, so that's about where we are now, and if it breaches that (which it will), next stop $1400.

$1400 gold = + or - $24 silver.

I don't know how many times I've read recently, 'buy, (gold or silver) the bottom's in', then it plunges to the next level.

Yeah, right, it's only just started.

Lucky I've got a safe full of USD for my vacation in Europe later this year, it'll be nearly free the way the USD's appreciated over the last few weeks.

[elZorro]

Well as I said above, Jon Nadler says there's a $1527 level, so that's about where we are now, and if it breaches that (which it will), next stop $1400.

$1400 gold = + or - $24 silver.

I don't know how many times I've read recently, 'buy, (gold or silver) the bottom's in', then it plunges to the next level.

Yeah, right, it's only just started.

Lucky I've got a safe full of USD for my vacation in Europe later this year, it'll be nearly free the way the USD's appreciated over the last few weeks.

Maybe you should cash in those USDs Skol, some more talk about QE in the USA being possible, and gold ramps up $30 in two hours, holding near $1575 at the moment. A smattering of comments on gold:

http://www.goldalert.com/gold-predictions/

The NZ Mint says that gold should not go lower than US$1300 an ounce, being what it costs on average to get it out of the ground. I still think gold will bounce back quite a way from here, and my investment is based on recovery costs of US$800 an ounce.

[Skol]

EZ,

Nothing goes down in a straight line, gold's taking a break before the next onslaught.

We've reached the time of maximum uncertainty in the Eurozone and gold can only rally $35.
2 commentators in the last 2 days are saying gold will be $1300, one in 3 months time and the other at the end of the year.

"the NZ mint says"

Mike Maloney says gold will be $20,000, Jim Rickards says $12,455, and lots of other clowns say anywhere between $2500 and $10,000, but you wanna take those dreamers with a grain of salt.

I would imagine the NZ Mint is trying to reassure lots of very anxious punters.

[Vtrader]

"It is also possible that this is the first 3 of a greater three, described as a combination correction. From the duration of this 3, a combination correction may take until May 2012 to complete..." The rest of the Previous post here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7449-Gold&p=364271&viewfull=1#post364271)


Could just be gold has retraced an ABC completing at $1530.

I will be extra vigilant looking for other cofirmations.
Good hunting scouts
I count EWT =C, but the current position could be something else also...
V.

[Xerof]

Excuse me for poking my nose in but.....This is candlestick, not EWT

For those techies out there, on the weekly gold chart 1525 area was a level of resistance back in May 2011, which has subsequently proven to be a strong level of support on two, now three occasions.

On the daily chart, there is a perfect 'pin bar' reversal over the past three days trading. Google if you want to know more

For the more conservative, wait another week to see if next weeks activity can also form a pin bar reversal on the weekly timeframe - if so, fly me to the moon.........

[elZorro]

Excuse me for poking my nose in but.....This is candlestick, not EWTFor those techies out there, on the weekly gold chart 1525 area was a level of resistance back in May 2011, which has subsequently proven to be a strong level of support on two, now three occasions.On the daily chart, there is a perfect 'pin bar' reversal over the past three days trading. Google if you want to know moreFor the more conservative, wait another week to see if next weeks activity can also form a pin bar reversal on the weekly timeframe - if so, fly me to the moon.........

Xerof, I take it that if I was versed in TA charting, gold is expected to go higher? Certainly recovered quite well during Friday.

Even amongst goldbugs, many don't believe in manipulation, at least in holding the price of gold down. As the US$ is dropping back and heading for the trendline of about 79, it looks like money is flowing out of USD and into gold holdings at the moment.

http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/05/precious-metals-market-manipulation/

[Hoop]

Xerof, I take it that if I was versed in TA charting, gold is expected to go higher? Certainly recovered quite well during Friday.

Even amongst goldbugs, many don't believe in manipulation, at least in holding the price of gold down. As the US$ is dropping back and heading for the trendline of about 79, it looks like money is flowing out of USD and into gold holdings at the moment.

http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/05/precious-metals-market-manipulation/

ElZ... yes gold upwards for the short term at least

TA is only a graphic measure of group investor behaviour from past trading, displayed visually on a chart or some other visual form of display..
I'm very instringued with Xerof's post.

Below is a longer term crude chart probably not a great example from me as I'm not that knowledgeable when it comes to Candlesticks and pin bar indentification..

but.. ...the subject under discussion is swing reversals and pin bar trading is one form of trading methodologies used to identify a swing change...From my chart and my untrained eyes I can see many swing reversals and many have that pin bar spike or tail behaviour of intraday testing a critical level whether it be S&R line trend line, Moving average, a Fibonacci Retracement ,or whatever....

...Hmmm...if anyone used this form of trading they would have done very well with gold:mellow:...Xerof seems to be very knowledgable in this area...I'd say he has done very well!!!
I hope he can teach me some more about pin bars....:)

Mixing my discipline with it it does seem the latest swing reversal has happened and as the Fibonacci Retracement is huge (over 50%) meaning more sold into the down movement indicating a bearish trend and a bull market correction continuation ...so... If I was a medium term swing trader, I would not get terribly excited that this recent upward retrace would be big, my eyes ATM would be focused on the primary downtrend line and the S&R line at 1620 as a possible top and exit if the negative signs reappear there..(incl a pin bar?)...an optimist would hope for a breakout upwards and out of that descending triangle formation at this point and for Gold to resume its bull uptrend.

There is a 61.8% Fibonacci there as well (shown on chart) but maybe another Fib retracement needs to be drawn..eh??? (top to bottom) showing a 38.2% fib retracement back up to 1630 (not drawn on chart).

If I'm right..(xerof please correct me)..does April 5 qualify as a Pin bar following a gap down if so then its a gem of a swing reversal event the tail stabbing through the primary uptrend line together with the 61.8% fib...indicating the POG isn't ready to Technically break down at that time but the fib being touched at 61.8% indicates it may break down with that next swing down?....it did after a couple of swings !!!

Where to longer term??...It seems with descending triangle formations in a longer term up trend they indicate that everyone that has wanted gold has already bought in resulting in price weakness due to lack of more buyers ..this creates a typical Bull market correction behaviour....However the break of the long term primary uptrend about the 7th May is a big TA worry....There is usually a breakout one way or the other about 60% through a triangle and we are there at this point now...since this recent low point touched the triangle bottom there is no breakout upward sign signal...It doesn't indicate it won't happen though a large Fib % retrace doen't help for a positive break though either .................we will have to wait and see........

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Gold18052012.png

[Skol]

The large descending triangle above should, if my TA book is correct, breakout in the direction of the original trend, which is downwards.

We should see a breakout below $1540.

[Hoop]

The large descending triangle above should, if my TA book is correct, breakout in the direction of the original trend, which is downwards.

We should see a breakout below $1540.

Ummm..the POG trend is upwards Skol... (see chart) and the POG entered up into the triangle pattern via the bottom

Yes your TA book is correct ..descending triangles using Elliott wave discipline can exit the same way they entered into that triangle (5 waves)....the bad news is it aint a perfect world. Statistically they break downwards 64% of the time overall. See the pattern site (http://thepatternsite.com/dt.html)
Worthy of a mention is the fact that descending triangles are also well known as continuation patterns...a breather (correction) during a up or down trend...

I can think of worse patterns gold could have atm... double tops, head and shoulders.....because of this I'm going to assume that this descending triangle is another continuation pattern... another Bull market correction.... unless as you say that breakout below $1540/30 happens which would bust the pattern and put the Bull in doubt.

As of now...For the short term at least POG is in a secondary swing reversal upwards

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Gold18052012longterm.png

[drillfix]

Taken from a chart I am about to post in the All Ords thread in a minute.

A snipped from the gold chart support and resistance with bollinger band points as too EMA levels, which seem to always become tested and then either rejected (like John West) or Respected to break through.

At least it will show some critical levels in the short to medium term!

Gold Supports & Resistance > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/bj72tud6kit1x2dfcwdr_GoldSR.png


Like the XAO over the past while, I think gold will trade sideways and become range bound until the cr@p sorts its self out, which there is also no reason to believe as this will happen!

Good luck and finger on the pulse whichever way the twists and turns take us~!

[elZorro]

Great chart Hoop, and it looks like it would be a good bet that the gold price heads upwards from here, with that 10-year trend. After all, the billions of euros being pulled from the Greek banks all have to go somewhere. Just a portion invested in gold bars will give the price a kick-along.

[Skol]

Great chart Hoop, and it looks like it would be a good bet that the gold price heads upwards from here, with that 10-year trend. After all, the billions of euros being pulled from the Greek banks all have to go somewhere. Just a portion invested in gold bars will give the price a kick-along.

EZ, demand for gold bars and coins fell 17% in the first quarter of 2012, so good luck with that one.

Incredible Charts says that failure of $1500 offers a target of $1200.

[lakedaemonian]

EZ, demand for gold bars and coins fell 17% in the first quarter of 2012, so good luck with that one.

Incredible Charts says that failure of $1500 offers a target of $1200.

I'm actually STUNNED gold didn't fall below $1500 as I was going to start my final buying from that point and accelerate it as it dropped......I didn't get to buy any more this time I'm afraid.

Although I'm not in any way convinced that was the gold bottom....I think it could and will retest and hopefully let me get another big taste.

Skol.....you should Google "Income Gap Trap".

I'm sure you're familiar with compound interest in a bank account.

How about how that same principal can apply to national debt?

The US is quickly reaching a go/no go point in it's effort to achieve "escape velocity" from excessive debt and it's increasing inability to grow the economy enough to generate the revenue to fund the debt/public spending.

Just like a rocket labouring to achieve orbit...and the apogee isn't quite sufficient....we get a period where it may feel like we're going to make it....until we clearly don't and start feeling a bit "warm".

Then the only choice is print our way out or burn up........possibly an additional 100% over 5-7 years.

I've read the US requires 3% average annualized REAL(not nominal) growth every year from 2010 to reach orbit.....it doesn't look like we've made it....so it doesn't look like we'll reach orbit.

The US will print......because it has failed to achieve the 3% REAL average growth it needs to avoid getting pulled down by the gravity of debt.

All the US government needs now is a convenient external excuse to blame it on.

[Skol]

Lake,

I take it you're an economist with a degree and actual exposure to the markets in your place of employment?

[Skol]

EZ,

How about an update on the gold/oil ratio.

[lakedaemonian]

Lake,

I take it you're an economist with a degree and actual exposure to the markets in your place of employment?

Not that it matters, my educational background includes attending an Ivy League business school.

Not that it matters, my exposure to markets in a work environment includes experience working for 3 Global Top 50 brands in manufacturing/logistics/distribution/finance across 10 countries as best I can recall before I went my own way and travel/experience since for work/fun covering many more since.

Not that it matters, because they don't teach this stuff at either.

I'd trade in my entire education and work history for some more access to Jim Rogers and Eric Jantszen.

I owe those two guys millions for helping me to develop my own perspective....and not in the figurative sense.

Do you know much about mainstream economic thought?

Do you know it's OK to be wrong ALL THE TIME in mainstream economic thought...as long as you don't stray from the herd......if the herd is wrong it's OK, because you're safe....everyone was wrong again.

If you stray to far from the herd.....you're only allowed to be wrong once....and you also stop being a frequent guest, or even a guest at all on financial propaganda like CNBC.

The herd is wrong....yet again.

If I had listened to the herd I would have been killed in the dot com crash, the property bubble pop, and the equity crash.

I managed to dodge those bullets where had I listened to conventional economic thought I would have been the victim of a financial firing squad.

If I had listened to you and put my money in the equities market simply compare the performance between the following 3 over the last 10 years:

S&P
DJIA
Gold

S&P + DJIA trading sideways for a decade

Gold is up 250-300%

Gold has also outperformed the S&P and DJIA by double since the day you started this thread....so it's not looking goof for ya mate!

Hell, even if I HAD just sat on the sidelines and dipped my toe in a bit here and there I STILL could have been fleeced by the likes of JOhn Corzine's MF Global...customer accounts stolen to the tune of $1.5 billion and Corzine is SAFE, because he's a former US Senator, former Governor, former CEO of JP Morgan, and current major fundraising bundler for President Obama.

THE.......GAME.....IS.....RIGGED and if you don't know who the sucker is, it's you.

PLEASE promise to stay on this forum and thread for the next couple of years to take your beatings as they continue to comes. :)

Also, it's not too late for you to move away from the herd......there's a financial markets abattoir up the road don't you know.

I'll post if I pick up any more on a final purchase spree with the expected dip......otherwise.....see ya down the track!

[Skol]

I've got it, you've attended the Jim Rogers Goldbug University, with a degree awarded by Jim Rickards, Rick Rule and the Aden Sisters.

Hahahha, what a laugh, an 'online' expert, attending the the postgraduate course at Kingworld News.

5 days ago Jim Rogers said that gold could go down 40-50% and he had his gold hedged.


2 days ago Jim Rogers said own real assets like gold.

Lake, you're the sucker, if the game's rigged and you're playing, say no more! You remind me of the 'experts' who've been telling us we're running out of oil, right here on Sharetrader, oil's going to the moon, $400 a barrell.

LOL

The party's over, one of the biggest bubbles in history has popped and you're too dim to realise it.

[elZorro]

Skol, found this chart site, also has the dow-gold ratio.

http://www.thumbcharts.com/101801/Gold-to-Oil-Ratio Note increasing trend last 2-3 years.

Lake - always find your posts very interesting.

[Skol]

Looks to me like the Gold/Oil ratio is on its way back to 13.

See the chart, if oil stays at its current price of $91, gold will be $1183.

www.stockmarketsreview.com/extras/oil_gold_bond_amp_dollar_297751/

[elZorro]

Looks to me like the Gold/Oil ratio is on its way back to 13.

See the chart, if oil stays at its current price of $91, gold will be $1183.

www.stockmarketsreview.com/extras/oil_gold_bond_amp_dollar_297751/ (http://www.stockmarketsreview.com/extras/oil_gold_bond_amp_dollar_297751/)

I don't think so. This investor thinks the gold market is so bearish that it must be near the bottom..

http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/05/this-is-the-bottom-for-gold-john-hathaway/

[Skol]

EZ,

This is the same John Hathaway that told suckers to buy gold stocks at the end of last year, saying that they were bottoming out.

Since then the HUI is down 18%.

[CAM]

Sorry, swiped this from another site .... just thought it would add to the debate :)

"Its because commentators are obsessed with short term technical trading patterns these days. They are just market noise. Gold up $100, down $100 who cares? You have to look at multi-year graphs to see the real trend is clearly down for all currencies against gold. But they will tell you, (with 99% of people and funds with no exposure to gold in any form), gold is in a bubble when the real bubble is US treasuries. The rise in US treasuries is not because the US is doing so well, but because the world is finally waking up to the failed euro experiment. The world hasn't woken up to the point that the USD is also in a hopeless situation... when it does gold will be priced out of the reach of common men and women. At that point the herd will dump US treasuries for the worthless things they will become.... It is great news for gold buyers that the vast majority hasn't discovered this yet."

....." in the past 12 months the US Fed has bought 61% of all US Treasuries issued by the Gov't."

[Skol]

Well I wouldn't count on it because gold and silver are commodities and commodities right now aren't the flavour of the day.

Goldbugs, losing money now for 8 months straight are grasping at straws, desperate for salvation, but alas with oil falling further, so will gold head south too.

"The USD in a hopeless situation".

Those who don't own the USD are in a hopeless situation, the USD index is up 4.5% this month alone.

Here's a prediction.

The Iranians will crack under the pressure, a face-saving deal will be worked out and the world will be flooded with cheap oil.

Oil and gold then tank.

[elZorro]

Cam, a heroic post there. Gold can move $30 in an hour or two, did so today in both directions.

Skol, what about a more likely prediction?

The Iranians are acutely aware of the value of their remaining oil, and hold out. Energy prices increase while the Western world worries about their individual economies rather than working co-operatively on solving a longer-term energy crisis or situation. Gold stays high with oil, and meltdowns in several countries trigger QE3 and inflation. Gold ramps ever higher to form a bubble in several years time. Fortunes are made and lost during this period.

[Skol]

I think you're fogetting a few things EZ.

There's an election this year and if there's one thing Americans hate more than anything else it's high gas prices. Obama is going to accommodate the US public.

Gold has gone up for 10 years straight - time's up.

Stocks have had a lousy 10 years and when the time's right they'll go exponential, history proves it.

[CAM]

I think you're fogetting a few things EZ.

There's an election this year and if there's one thing Americans hate more than anything else it's high gas prices. Obama is going to accommodate the US public.




...so what happens after the election....??

[Skol]

No problem, there's a boom in North Dakota and Kansas. There's no dry holes, the stuff's pouring out everywhere, and the USA now imports more oil from Canada than Saudi Arabia.

[elZorro]

No problem, there's a boom in North Dakota and Kansas. There's no dry holes, the stuff's pouring out everywhere, and the USA now imports more oil from Canada than Saudi Arabia.

This article has more detail about the US elections and the likely changes afterwards. Until we see cheaper energy, not just temporary pauses in the oil uptrend, I can't see this pattern changing.

http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/05/gold-a-seismic-move-is-coming/

Skol, more about those gas prices..
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/story/2012-04-21/global-factors-gasoline-prices/54421804/1

[elZorro]

Had a read of the Sunday Star Times this morning, there's a week-old story there reprinted from the Sunday Times - "Temple of Doom" by John Arlidge. It's about the very tough decisions that might be made soon after the next Greek elections. Online subscribers only, can read it.

Here's a similar article. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/return-to-drachma-would-create-greek-financial-legal-political-limbo/story-fnay3ubk-1226358610274

The next election's result will be known on 17th June. If the population vote for the old system and not austerity, then the Drachma could be introduced in a hurry, but the net effect is possibly a halving of the value of their currency. Of course Germany and others will have to weigh up the costs of any domino effect, and even what the effect of possibly a stronger euro would have on their own export earnings. The weaker countries in the group pull down the value of the euro, good for exporters.

I can't see any of this nasty upheaval being bad for the gold price.

[Skol]

I can't see any of this nasty upheaval being bad for the gold price.

That's what everyone's been saying for the last 8 months but the POG just keeps tanking.

[elZorro]

That's what everyone's been saying for the last 8 months but the POG just keeps tanking.Skol, it's dropped back to about 1525 two times, could be a double bottom...that's not tanking. I'll change my opinion if it heads off into the 1400s, but there are many reasons (well covered by others) for gold to move back up.

Spot the pattern back in 2008, could be we're on the same heading now. That wasn't much fun though was it..

http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/2012/05/23/could-greece-end-up-as-europe-lehman-brothers/

That gold chart is pointing to the Greek election date.

After the US elections this year, the true state of US debt will be more obvious, and inflation and QE3 might get going in earnest.

http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/05/whats-it-going-to-take-to-turn-gold-prices-around/

These wobbles in the gold price might then be the sign of indecision over where to park spare cash, but by the end of the year 2012 there should be no mistake. Hold onto your hat Skol..

Trader Dave sees the same pattern, but balances it with other scenarios. (http://9999pure.blogspot.co.nz/2012_05_01_archive.html)

[CAM]

but gold is not worth investing in...

....someone seems to think it has some value.......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9298180/Europes-debtors-must-pawn-their-gold-for-Eurobond-Redemption.html

[STRAT]

Here's a prediction.

The Iranians will crack under the pressure, a face-saving deal will be worked out and the world will be flooded with cheap oil.

Oil and gold then tank.Words like "flood" and "tank" may be a bit strong but I reckon you are onto something there Skol.;)

[STRAT]

This thread is always extreme in terms of comments but gold isnt lookin all that bad I reckon. Been in a holding pattern since early march. Around a 15% drop from the high. Plenty of other stuff doin way worse.

Seems to be sliding out of the downtrend channel that began in August last year the bottom in which was way back in December.

Chart is in Aussie dollars. Chart in US dollars has way to much American noise.

[Skol]

This thread is always extreme in terms of comments but gold isnt lookin all that bad I reckon.

Coulda fooled me.

Gold down 20% since it's top.
XGD down 30% in the last year.
HUi down 24% in the last year
XAU down 25% in the last year

What's done worse?

[gazprom1]

[QUOTE=Skol;374546]

The Iranians will crack under the pressure, a face-saving deal will be worked out and the world will be flooded with cheap oil.



Hey Skol,

Not sure that Iranian oil will be the main source of flooding the world with cheap oil but American production is increasing by 20,000bopd plus gas/
liquids and this source will impact on global oil prices.


Gazprom

[Skol]

[QUOTE=Skol;374546]

The Iranians will crack under the pressure, a face-saving deal will be worked out and the world will be flooded with cheap oil.



Hey Skol,

Not sure that Iranian oil will be the main source of flooding the world with cheap oil but American production is increasing by 20,000bopd plus gas/
liquids and this source will impact on global oil prices.


Gazprom

Gaz,

Yeah, I've seen some info on North Dakota and Kansas, they reckon there's no dry holes, it's boomtime, instant millionaires.

[gazprom1]

[QUOTE=gazprom1;374926]

Gaz,

Yeah, I've seen some info on North Dakota and Kansas, they reckon there's no dry holes, it's boomtime, instant millionaires.

You are right Skol....the numbers are big. A lot will depend on Asian demand (China) but oil goes lower for me (as does gold).

Gaz

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=gazprom1;374926]

Gaz,

Yeah, I've seen some info on North Dakota and Kansas, they reckon there's no dry holes, it's boomtime, instant millionaires.


yes that's why I hold over a couple million SSN shares

[elZorro]

Here's an article for the contrarian in all of us. (Some of us have more than others).

Precis: gold stocks look good for a lot of reasons.

http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/05/golds-contrarian-moment/

[JBmurc]

The new Basel III rules are set to make gold a Tier 1 asset for commercial banks- compared to the Tier 3 ranking it holds currently. This means PHYSICAL gold will count as capital the same as a treasury bond.
Demand for physical metal will increase substantially from this ruling, but you won’t hear it mentioned on CNBC.

The big new thing in gold – capital adequacy ratios

Ross Norman looks at the implications for gold of an increased focus on the assets banks are allowed to hold as tier one capital.

LONDON (SHARPS PIXLEY) - Forgive the hyperbole in the headline but we wanted to get your attention as something quite profound is happening that could propel gold to record new highs. Yes, potentially the biggest thing since the birth of the gold ETF and the liberalization of the Chinese gold market in 2003. A decade on and we have grounds for saying that gold may well see a significant leg higher… the big new thing in gold. I’ll explain…

Banking capital adequacy ratios, once the domain of banking specialists are set to become centre stage for the gold market as well as the wider economy. In response to the global banking crisis the rules are to be tightened in terms of the assets that banks must hold and this is potentially going to very much favor gold. The Basel Committee for Bank Supervision (or BCBS) as part of the BIS are arguably the highest authority in banking supervision and it is their role to define capital requirements through the forthcoming Basel III rules.



In short, they are meeting to consider making gold a Tier 1 asset for commercial banks with 100% weighting rather than a Tier 3 asset with just a 50% risk weighting as it does today. At the same time they are set to increase the amount of capital banks must set aside as well. A double win potentially.



Hitherto banks have been much dis-incentivised to hold gold while being encouraged to hold arguably riskier assets such as equity capital, currencies and debt instruments, none of which have fared too well in the crisis. With this potential change in capital adequacy requirements. bank purchases of gold would drive up its value relative to other high quality qualifying assets, increasing its desirability for regulatory purposes further. This should result in gold being re-priced to bring it on a par with all other high quality assets.



Currently banks have to have core Tier 1 capital ratio of 4% of which will rise to 6% from the beginning of next year. In addition to its store of value merits, central to the argument in favor of gold as a bank reserve is its countercyclical nature to most other assets in that it tends to be inversely correlated. Gold is ideal as it bears no credit risk. it involves no other counter-party and it is no one’s liability. It is a reserve asset diversifier if you like.



This is a treble win for gold – it would be a major endorsement of its role in preserving wealth and as a store of value from the highest financial authority, it would lead to significant purchases of gold by major financial institutions and it would lead to a reappraisal of its value with respect to other Tier 1 capital such as quality sovereign debt. Under the new rules gold could become a very significantly larger proportion of a reserve pool which is about to grow very much larger.

[drillfix]

There seems to have been a $50+ spike in gold within a few hours just gone!

Still climbing or time for a breather prior to EU crackpots trying to talk up this so called "Union".

More like the United States of Europe and the people know it and ain't gonna take the sh%t anymnore.

Ahh well, quite a peaceful day for me, hopefully a peaceful week a head also :)

[elZorro]

There seems to have been a $50+ spike in gold within a few hours just gone!

Still climbing or time for a breather prior to EU crackpots trying to talk up this so called "Union".

More like the United States of Europe and the people know it and ain't gonna take the sh%t anymnore.

Ahh well, quite a peaceful day for me, hopefully a peaceful week a head also :)

Yes, a welcome change for goldbugs this morning, here's a short video about it. It's all down to the US, not enough jobs were added in the last period.

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-prices-rally-above-1600-060120123

Gold demand is dampening over in India, because of the lower value of the Rupee, gold is now at an all-time high there. But China is now the world's biggest consumer (purchaser) of gold.

[JBmurc]

Now thats what I call a bull move up $72oz AUD .....

[JBmurc]

Think we have seen the bottom in this retreat .....I got pretty close last time ...will see if I'm right next few weeks

-6 month low $1540
-12 month low $1486 (I'd be worried if it moves below this over the next few days)
-5yr low $641 (only in Skol wet dreams)

2nd time running ....now here comes stage 3 of the Gold bull....shouldn't be long till the ASX goldies get some attention...

[trackers]

2nd time running ....now here comes stage 3 of the Gold bull....shouldn't be long till the ASX goldies get some attention...

Glad CVR hasn't sold that 1000 ounces yet :D

[JBmurc]

Glad CVR hasn't sold that 1000 ounces yet :D

yes should add a few dollars ...did sell down of my CVR 2.9c still holding a few

[JBmurc]

Max talking Gold ---2nd half--

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwFi3mbcScI

[Skol]

Max talking Gold ---2nd half--

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwFi3mbcScI

Nothing like a few more conspiracy theories from Max Keiser.

A splurge of posts from JB, the excitement setting in ready for the blast-off. Unfortunately the engines are gonna flame out not long after take-off power is set and the passengers think they're getting comfortable for their ride to the moon.

[JBmurc]

4002
Nothing like a few more conspiracy theories from Max Keiser.

A splurge of posts from JB, the excitement setting in ready for the blast-off. Unfortunately the engines are gonna flame out not long after take-off power is set and the passengers think they're getting comfortable for their ride to the moon.

sure you didn't even watch the clip ....of course Gold is doomed ...relic,worthless,can't eat it bah bah .....its crashing ......doomed....

blast off yeah that has been gold for the last decade ..and while your be moaning about it's doom it's be moving north LOL

SKOL read very slowly ..."AUD GOLD IS ONLY $125 from it all time high" ..... thats only 7% .....down can't see how in anyway that's a crash when you look at how much it's moved over the last decade thanks to failings of the FIAT money system

[JBmurc]

shows very clearly the jnr Gold sector is well oversold esp when you put the AUD gold price into context ....once in a lifetime chance to get a sale prices

[elZorro]

Yes JB, I wonder if I can get my timing right this time around.


The Moneychanger with the events of 1st June:


Here goes: Right on time about the end of year's first half (as expected) bad unemployment news turned up to rack an already panicked stock market which had been floating on fumes, hopes, & Fed propaganda. New jobs in May grew by 69,000, lowest in year and far short of the 158,000 economists expected.

That took unemployment up for the first time in 11 months, to 8.2%. Adding woe to pain, the government revised March & April estimates down as well.

Meanwhile overseas the Euro zone is forcing another austerity treaty on the weaker members. Too little, too late. Bad unemployment data in the face of an upcoming election will send the Fed skittering to the money pumps to keep the ship from sinking. Markets insightfully grasped that inevitability today, sending silver & gold shooting up and shucking stocks like the French army throwing away backpacks on the retreat from Moscow. What y'all must not miss here is that stocks & metals parted ways, decoupled, disconnected, & diverged.

Markets are screaming that they now expect more inflation, by the trainload.

[Skol]

Must be time to 'back the truck up'.

Try TLS if you want a real 'worst case scenario' investment. Real liquid gold, not the stuff you bury in the garden.

[Hoop]

Must be time to 'back the truck up'.

My ears and whiskers are twitching...but my truck's still in the garage

[elZorro]

My ears and whiskers are twitching...but my truck's still in the garage

Mixed metaphors Hoop - if you were Mr P, I'd ask if you had anticipated this sudden resurgence in the (US) gold price based on TA..

Especially for Skol - "Gold to the Moon".

(We have to give you guys heaps, goldbugs are only right some of the time too, but most of the last 10 years).

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=elZorro;375115]Yes JB, I wonder if I can get my timing right this time around.


well when this thread is full of only positive posts and back slapping from big gains I'll be selling down my positions
--‘What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.

[Skol]

[QUOTE=elZorro;375115]Yes JB, I wonder if I can get my timing right this time around.


well when this thread is full of only positive posts and back slapping from big gains I'll be selling down my positions
--‘What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.

You've missed it, that was a year ago.

The next boom in precious metals will be in 2034.

[JBmurc]

good overall wrap on the world Gold facts .....near the end it shows world gold production shows even though Gold has gone from $250oz USD to $1600+ worldwide production hasn't grown backs up the fact more tonnes may be getting mined but the grades are dropping

http://www.numbersleuth.org/worlds-gold/

[lakedaemonian]

Nothing like a few more conspiracy theories from Max Keiser.

A splurge of posts from JB, the excitement setting in ready for the blast-off. Unfortunately the engines are gonna flame out not long after take-off power is set and the passengers think they're getting comfortable for their ride to the moon.

Speaking of flameout....I saw United/Continental have cancelled the 787 ultra long haul Houston/Auckland service they planned before it even started.

Air Asia's Christchurch to KL service gone.

Only one airline serving Auckland/US direct.

Things are just lovely huh?

Especially with the DJIA gains for 2012 now completely wiped out.

And Facebook becoming the biggest IPO embarrassment in history.....what a textbook example of how rigged the markets are.....even for the folks who thought they were "insiders" who bought in the last year on the secondary market.

John Corzine is still bundling campaign money for the President's re-election campaign after stealing $1.5+ billion and is immune.

NOT ONE serious Wall Street criminal "player" has been charged, let along convicted in the last 4 years. Hell, they haven't even charged a Wall Street janitor.....

The 3 card monte of equity/bond investment is for suckers......and will continue to be until it is cleaned up and the playing field is leveled so the game of monopoly is made to be fair again.

However, Gold's back up to $1628 :)

Holding up far better than I had hoped....I still expect a drop possibly into the $1400's maybe, before ending the year in the black.

Hard to say for certain or even basic conviction......we're in for another nasty global financial seizure within the next 12 months.....maybe even within 6...we're in deep doo doo and we are guaranteed QE3, just awaiting the political justification to print.

And that will affect gold how? :)

Here's a simple analogy of what's happening now and what will happen soon:

Think of the US economy as the Apollo rocket.

Think of the EU economy as the flawed Soviet N1 rocket.

The N1(EU) design was a horrific design/engineering/execution failure as it was unable to synchronize/harmonize the 30 rocket motors(no centralized federal control, no central/joint bond market)...all it took was 1 loose bolt(systemic corruption) in a rocket motor(Greece) fuel pump(Greek government & central bank) to lead to the catastrophic failure of the entire N1(EU).

So with the catastrophic failure of the N1(EU) on the next launch pad over from the Apollo(US), not only does the more elegant designed(central federal control and bond market) Apollo(US) need to avoid detonation itself in the N1(EU) shockwave, but it also has to achieve economic escape velocity.

In order for the Apollo(US) to reach economic escape velocity it will require the following:

4% REAL average GDP growth from 2010-2013 for sufficient thrust and velocity to reach orbit....which is now beyond the laws of financial physics to achieve.

OR

3% REAL average GDP growth from 2010-2020 which is looking less likely with the real risk of slipping back into recession between now and 2020.

Failure to achieve economic escape velocity(output gap trap) means the US simply doesn't recover.....and will then suffer the friction of orbital/financial decay.

That's probably it for me for a while......too much work and too many projects on the go....will check back later.

I sincerely hope we(the world, and particularly NZ) pull through this OK.....but it's wishful thinking at the moment.

Good luck to everyone in the year ahead.....

[Skol]

Lake,

I wouldn't worry too much about the airline business, it's going hunk dory, $83 for oil, it's like striking gold only better. Where I work every $1 drop in oil translates into $10,000,000 profit.

Load factors are unbelievable, this is gonna be one of the best years ever, a very sweet spot.

All discretionary cash too, despite the goldbugs predicting the end of the known economic world. LOL

Gold will probably have a brief flirtation with $1600-$1700 and that'll be it, most of all this stuff is already priced in.

[biker]

Skol are you in AIR as well as VAH?

[JBmurc]

Yes Lake the deeper you look the worse it looks .... I personal hope my shares do well over the short mid term because I'll be selling down most of them before the US elections are over in NOV...think there's going be one sh*tstorm hit the market's once the masters have their new puppet in place...I see Wall street/Military complex are hedging their bets funding romney's campaign

Obama / romney foreign policy no differentiate
http://www.sacbee.com/2012/06/03/4534647/romney-struggles-to-differentiate.html

When you look back on Obama term....what has he changed from Bush.....
Obama's broken promises
http://rt.com/usa/news/obama-campaign-broken-promises/

What scares me is Obama was " I will stop the wars bring the troops home as soon as I'm in Office"....I'll bring change
-Mitt Romney is all out "WAR MONGER"....that would be more than happy to start WW3

Only the skols of the world can't see whats going on isn't good..

[Skol]

Skol are you in AIR as well as VAH?

The only airline shares I own are VAH.

[Skol]

Only the skols of the world can't see whats going on isn't good..

History repeating itself.

If you go over the peak oil thread that's what tricha and bermuda posted dozens of times until oil crashed in 2008.

Peak oil? A non-event, a massive economic implosion was forecast by dozens here (including you JB) and did it happen?

Of course not, why ruin a good story with facts?

I was thinking about taking my family up to the West Coast of the USA next month, aircraft are all very nearly full about the time I want to go and the hotel I had planned report heavy bookings.

Yeah, the world's falling to pieces all right. LOL

[skid]

History repeating itself.

If you go over the peak oil thread that's what tricha and bermuda posted dozens of times until oil crashed in 2008.

Peak oil? A non-event, a massive economic implosion was forecast by dozens here (including you JB) and did it happen?

Of course not, why ruin a good story with facts?

I was thinking about taking my family up to the West Coast of the USA next month, aircraft are all very nearly full about the time I want to go and the hotel I had planned report heavy bookings.

Yeah, the world's falling to pieces all right. LOL

With all due respect,I think your wrong,but hope your right.
I think this world you speak of is like a china bowl with lots of tiny cracks in it.We are slowly filling it more and more, and the cracks are spreading.We cant see them because of the beautiful painted surface. If we look closely we can see its under stress but to most, it is still a beautiful bowl.Of course once the bowl breaks its to late.--Maybe I should have used an example of a Dam,as it better describes the devastation to the poor villages below--Dont know about the rest of you, but Im packing my bags and looking for another village.

[Skol]

skid,

You can hunker down for Armageddon, but I won't be, the world always muddles through, and this time will be no different.

[JBmurc]

skid,

You can hunker down for Armageddon, but I won't be, the world always muddles through, and this time will be no different.

ignorance is bliss

[Skol]

ignorance is bliss

Yep, and I see silver's resumed its inexorable way south again.

[skid]

Im not hunkering down waiting for Armageddon,but Im not fooling myself that everythings rosey because lots of people are going to the states either.Spending money [that you dont have,in many cases]is part of what created this mess in the first place.
Im taking a conservative approach with asset protection in mind.
Im still enjoying life ,just like before,but im not investing aggressively and ive paid off all debt.
If things go pear shaped[big time]I wont enjoy it,but Ill get by.
I think we have still got a bail out or 2 left before the fairytale ends[which if they happen ,Im sure will really piss you off in terms of the price of silver and gold] but maybe not-Ive just got a small holding as insurance--I would prefer to stay out of the big time competition.
Im sure the world will muddle through,but that doesnt mean there wont be blood on the floor...

[winner69]

Lake,

I wouldn't worry too much about the airline business, it's going hunk dory, $83 for oil, it's like striking gold only better. Where I work every $1 drop in oil translates into $10,000,000 profit.

Load factors are unbelievable, this is gonna be one of the best years ever, a very sweet spot.

All discretionary cash too, despite the goldbugs predicting the end of the known economic world. LOL

Gold will probably have a brief flirtation with $1600-$1700 and that'll be it, most of all this stuff is already priced in.

Obviously Qantas just don't get ..... no profit or very little at best cause "The forecast result reflects the recent deterioration in global aviation operating conditions driven by the European economic crisis, the group’s highest ever jet fuel bill, and substantial capacity increases in the domestic market that have reduced yields," the group said

[Skol]

Etihad taken a 4% stake in VAH.

Airline shares aren't guaranteed to make you rich but here's something that definitely won't make you rich.

www.bloomberg.com/consumer-spending/2012-05-30/the-real-cost-of-owning-gold.html

The real cost of owning gold (or silver).

[elZorro]

More common sense from Colin Twigg..

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2012-06-06-economy-whats_new.php

[JBmurc]

Yep, and I see silver's resumed its inexorable way south again.

Good to see it on it's way back up....Gold up $17 so far maybe another big move coming tonight

[elZorro]

Good to see it on it's way back up....Gold up $17 so far maybe another big move coming tonight

JB, it must be our turn on this thread, US gold has moved up $100 in a few days. OGC looking good over here. Before we are told off, I bet gold has hardly moved in Aussie dollars or NZ dollars. The thing is, the US chart is what the big traders look at. That's the only reason ABX follows it so well. The goldie shares follow every little bump and hollow in gold if nothing else is happening.

OK, so now I'll open up the savings account that I started at the top of the last gold cycle a few months back, and buy some more goldie shares. I wish..

[JBmurc]

Gold Up $20 and counting ,Dow futures looking good 100+,,,,, Brent oil back over $100

wish I had some spare cash the last few days bargains galore

[Skol]

Gold Up $20 and counting ,Dow futures looking good 100+,,,,, Brent oil back over $100

wish I had some spare cash the last few days bargains galore

And gold down $20 while the DJIA goes into orbit, up 221. Must be pretty obvious now that gold's going nowhere and it's only a matter of time before it heads south again.

[JBmurc]

And gold down $20 while the DJIA goes into orbit, up 221. Must be pretty obvious now that gold's going nowhere and it's only a matter of time before it heads south again.

U.S. stocks rallied, giving benchmark indexes their biggest gains in 2012, on speculation global policy makers will take steps to stimulate economic growth.......guess what happen's to real assets when they do mass stimulation sparky...

[Skol]

Two of the members of the Fed have expressed opposition to any stimulation. Gold can't gain any traction, all that stuff's already priced in and it's goin' nowhere fast.

DJIA now up 286, gold up $0.

[JBmurc]

Two of the members of the Fed have expressed opposition to any stimulation. Gold can't gain any traction, all that stuff's already priced in and it's goin' nowhere fast.

DJIA now up 286, gold up $0.

Don't forget the USD down .59 ...

[elZorro]

Gold being an indicator of the big picture, have a look at this big picture article from Colin James recently. Much to think about. The gold price will point the way as this mess unwinds.

http://www.colinjames.co.nz/speeches_briefings/Wellington_Club_12Jun06.pdf

[Skol]

wish I had some spare cash the last few days bargains galore

Well you would have if you dumped your 1500 oz of silver which has decreased by 42% in the last few months.

[JBmurc]

Well you would have if you dumped your 1500 oz of silver which has decreased by 42% in the last few months.

no like to buy some more ..

[Skol]

Gold down $50, the beginning of the end.

[yabster]

that beginning has taken about two or three years.... still think that some form of stimulus in the US will happen. China has just cut its interest rates.

A saying does come to mind " a broken clock is right twice a day....."

[skid]

''And the boy who cried wolf''--but seriously, most out there are starting to lean towards another bail out as the alternate choices are few and far between at this stage.
We will probably find out sooner rather than later.
If this does happen one would expect PMs to head North

[skid]

bernanke holds off on stimulus. Interesting times - Next stop Europe

[Silverlight]

Just curious Skol, at the moment are you short Gold? Or just still playing devils advocate?

[Skol]

Just curious Skol, at the moment are you short Gold? Or just still playing devils advocate?

I've always been the devil's advocate, beats me why people own it in the first place. Here's a clue. Punters reading newsletters from the 1980's onwards that promise the end of the economic world as we know it.

Has it happened? Of course not.

It's the amateur 'Austrian Economists'.

[Skol]

What are you going to say when gold hits $2100 in a few months.........

Hey denpal,

You posted this on the 28/1/12, when is a few months?

[trackers]

Skol if I had a spare couple of weeks I could go back and requote all the times you've made calls that proved to be rubbish too

[elZorro]

Denpal could be right yet, QE3 looks to be a question of when, not if..

http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=orkbnrcab&v=001C27c5-9pq2QHlaGczK0yynJK5O-RQXQ2a18M5iwhCsVa0jgKUotq8E5kpX0g4_BA6aBPdvLiZqO23 l3AtQtYQiUmNUIxYtFNAYzSldhZRHE%3D

[Skol]

There's an OPEC meeting this week. Many of them despise each other and it's going to be worse this time around because the Saudis are pumping 12m+ barrels/day and the Iraqis are pumping 2m+.

They trying to sink the Iranians who are so desperate to sell oil they'll take local currencies.

Supply is way up, demand is way down. Lower oil means lower gold, and once it goes through $1500 there's nothing stopping it until about $1200.

[skid]

Lower oil does not always mean lower gold---Those that hold some gold,for insurance,do so because they realize that anything can happen. Right now they are both looked at as commodities,but if things get really nasty it may not always be the case,especially if currencies get really shaky.

[STRAT]

Gold chart showing some promise eh?

Short term up trend. Trend line Confirmed. Broken out of the down trending channel its been in for a while. Needs to get above and stay above $1669

[skid]

Alot more talk of QE3 around lately My money is that it will happen for better or worse,its just a matter of when. Its being saved as a last resort ATM because, well,thats about all they have left.

[JBmurc]

Some truth on the euro

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TN_1mF-3JTI

[skid]

from an article on Reuters

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke also has made clear that the European crisis is a significant risk for the U.S. economy and left little doubt in testimony to Congress last week that the Fed was ready to counter significant strains.

"The Federal Reserve remains prepared to take action as needed to protect the U.S. economy in the event that financial stresses escalate," he said.

This probably would mean a third round of bond buying, known as QE3, though it also could extend a program to push down longer-term interest rates, known as Operation Twist. The Fed meets next week on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged when it concludes a two-day meeting on Friday as it awaits the outcome of the Greek election.

But a fresh wave of global risk aversion that sends investors flocking to the yen could well lead the BOJ to expand its 40 trillion-yen asset buying program, its main policy tool after it cut rates to a range of zero to 0.1 percent during the global financial crisis.



He is talking about if things turn to custard in Europe if the elections dont go well in Greece and France--So QE3 is a very real possibility but who knows with so many wild cards in play here-Sounds like the worlds leading economies are in lock down mode waiting to see what happens on the weekend--Whatever is happening right now could be very different come next week

[Skol]

Skid,

Has it occurred to you that if things go well and Eurogeddon doesn't happen, gold could crash?

[skid]

If things go well,most likely Gold will benefit-If things dont it will most likely fall.
If it really goes badly,the US may consider QE3,so who knows?
At this stage no matter what you or I say -Its a lottery
The fact that Gold went up 2.5% this week suggests that most are betting on things going well--but who knows?

One thing we can safely say is that whatever happens next week -it will have nothing to do with your past dealings in Gold

[Skol]

It's a lottery all right, which is why I don't have any money in it, I don't feel like getting poor.

I see Bullion Buyer NZ has gone under owing $2.5m and the firm's 'chief trader' was a drug addict with a string of convictions, another collection of scamsters playing on people's greed, buy gold and get rich. Protect yourself from the incompetent politicians, greedy banksters and 'collapsing paper money'. LOL

The first thing the public should learn about is protecting their money from themselves.

Like the avaricious gamblers that indebted themselves for decades speculating on property and then lost out. It all comes down to asset allocation, which even the most educated punters appeared to have ignored or failed at University, overexposure can be a ballbreaker, but I suppose each new generation needs to learn that.

But back to Bullion Buyer. One punter gave them $160,000 and another couple reportedly had 'hundreds of thousands' in it.

Poverty beckons.

[skid]

Youve got money in it,one way or the other.
In your case,its $US amoung probably other things [Shares?]
Golds not the only lottery in town.
If you've got anything,you've in to something

[corran]

...It all comes down to asset allocation, which even the most educated punters appeared to have ignored or failed at University, overexposure can be a ballbreaker, but I suppose each new generation needs to learn that...


Very true Skol. And I would say a truely diversified portfolio should include some exposure to precious metals. It's not just for the goldbugs :-) And it's not only 'eurogeddon' where precious metals will do well. In my case the profits I made on gold companies in 2009/2010 more than made up for the losses I suffered elsewhere.

[Skol]

Very true Skol. And I would say a truely diversified portfolio should include some exposure to precious metals. It's not just for the goldbugs :-) And it's not only 'eurogeddon' where precious metals will do well. In my case the profits I made on gold companies in 2009/2010 more than made up for the losses I suffered elsewhere.

In 2009/2010/2011 the the profits I made in boring, very safe cash and bank deposits thrashed almost every other investment on the planet. Gold and silver have no utility, it's a craze that will soon end, it was precipitated by hard money newsletters and idiots like Max Keiser, Stacy Herbert and Glenn Beck.

The colossal amount of gold sold to these suckers over the last few years is staggering, but it's come to an end, the gold market in India is all but over and the sale of gold eagles and other boondoggles in the USA has cratered.

[elZorro]

In 2009/2010/2011 the the profits I made in boring, very safe cash and bank deposits thrashed almost every other investment on the planet. Gold and silver have no utility, it's a craze that will soon end, precipitated by hard money newsletters and idiots like Max Keiser, Stacy Herbert and Glenn Beck.

The colossal amount of gold sold to these suckers over the last few years is staggering, but it's come to an end, the gold market in India is all but over and the sale of gold eagles and other boondoggles in the USA has cratered.

And other famous last words..

[Skol]

Youve got money in it,one way or the other.
In your case,its $US amoung probably other things [Shares?]
Golds not the only lottery in town.
If you've got anything,you've in to something

Correct, I own shares, and some of them in USD. The USD is the world's reserve currency and shares mostly provide a dividend. Gold does nothing, it's speculating, hoping a 'greater fool' will turn up.

Meanwhile here's something from Jon Nadler's latest newsletter:

Bullion is still confined to the $1,550-$1650 trading range and on the technical side of its paradigm there is nothing much new to report. Michael Shaoul, the New York-based chairman of Marketfield Asset Management said that gold prices may decline to as low a level as $1,300 later this year after they breach support at $1,520 per ounce. Mr. Shaoul remarked that gold is not a “viable alternative” to [fiat] currencies. Speaking at a Bloomberg Link conference in Boston on Thursday, Mr. Shaoul cautioned that monetary easing by various central banks will not “inevitably” lead to a moonshot in gold prices.

[corran]

In 2009/2010/2011 the the profits I made in boring, very safe cash and bank deposits thrashed almost every other investment on the planet. .

There were loads of multi-bagger shares in the 2009-2011 period, in many countries the rebound from the lows of March 2009 turned into one of the fastest growing bull market ever.

If you had the guts to invest during that time you could build real wealth. If you kept it stuck in the bank you barely progressed. You would have been far better off buying gold and silver coins ;-)

[Skol]

There were loads of multi-bagger shares in the 2009-2011 period, in many countries the rebound from the lows of March 2009 turned into one of the fastest growing bull market ever.

If you had the guts to invest during that time you could build real wealth. If you kept it stuck in the bank you barely progressed. You would have been far better off buying gold and silver coins ;-)

All very well to speak with hindsight but for every gold share that was a multi-bagger there were 50 that were dogs.

OK, money in the bank isn't great, 4%, but beats the hell out of gold since August last year, down 16%. At least I've still go it my money.

You must have heard of that expression, "I don't want a return on my money, I just the return of my money"?

Gold share investors have invariably been massive losers in the last year or two with indexes down as much as 50%, which makes a relatively risk-free 4%p.a. look positively wonderful.

The XAU for example is 20% behind the S&P500 for the last year, and when you're down 20% you have to make 25% just to break even.

The Market Vector Junior Gold Miners is 43% behind the S&P500 in the last year and 50% for the last 2 years and the chart is a terminal case , to break even you'll have to make a gain of 100 %.

The Market Vector Junior Gold Miners is 60% behind gold for the last 2 years,(about 200% gain required to break even) probably pointing the way for precious metals in the year ahead.

No thanks, good quality shares, no debt, no shonky currencies, property and money in the bank in the meantime, if it all turns to a can of worms in Euroland there's only one place to be - have some moolah in the mighty, indestructable USD, and since you live in the Netherlands corran, you might be a lot poorer in a few days time relative to non-Euroland.

I'm coming to Europe on vacation later this year, could be a very, very cheap holiday.

[corran]

Skol - you just have to apply a little bit of basic technical analysis and you'll be able to preserve most of your profits when shares start going down. You should try it!

I've got a lot of my portfolio outside Europe in cash, if eurogeddon eventuates I'm looking forward to paying off my mortgage in cash and picking up some bargains.

I hope for your sake you're not naive enough to think the USD is going to be indestructible forever, there'll come a time when it will go the way of the euro.

If you're coming to Amsterdam let me know, I'll buy you a beer

[Skol]

If you're coming to Amsterdam let me know, I'll buy you a beer

Thank you for your kind offer, I might take you up on it, there'll have been a bit of water gone under the bridge by then.

Cheers.

[winner69]

Dr Doom, also known as Marc Faber, says the price of gold has bottomed

Doesnt think it reach a new high in the rest of this year though

[skid]

Skol,your last post made more sense than most of your others put together.
The tone tells me you are taking this scenario a bit more seriously now and thats good.
Self preservation is a necessity in this climate.
There will be other times to make large returns.
Ive got a % in gold to spread my eggs [for better or worse] but the main theme is just like yours self preservation.
It looks like things might work out in greece but its close[still a long way to go even if probailout win.]
Could be a good week for PMs because people are treating them as a commodity ATM rather than a safe haven.Your $US are a safe haven ATM but that could all change.
Money in the bank is good but you still need to keep an eye on it if things get ugly-If ever there was a time that those bastions could fall,its now,given the right set of unfortunate circumstances.
Lets hope not

[Skol]

Posters have said to me in the past "you don't understand gold".

There's not much to understand, it might go up or it might go down, speculators and the 'mums and dads' underestimate the risk, and in 1980 everyone decided for some reason to sell, so it crashed, it could do the same thing again tomorrow, who knows.

Some say it will match inflation, some say if there's a bout of inflation it'll be sold of as other assets become more attractive.

It has limited industrial appeal these days, most is sold as investment or jewellery, so when that stops, the music stops, so self-preservation didn't help them in 1980, they went broke if they were over-exposed.

The banks have got loads of cash, they're almost giving it away as over-leveraged property punters pay off their mortgages, so it's not likely the banks will fail, they'll be well aware of the situation and have sufficient reserves.

Marc Faber and Jim Rogers love publicity and have got it consistently wrong, I won't be taking any notice of either of them.

[denpal]

Posters have said to me in the past "you don't understand gold".

There's not much to understand, it might go up or it might go down, speculators and the 'mums and dads' underestimate the risk, and in 1980 everyone decided for some reason to sell, so it crashed, it could do the same thing again tomorrow, who knows.

Some say it will match inflation, some say if there's a bout of inflation it'll be sold of as other assets become more attractive.

It has limited industrial appeal these days, most is sold as investment or jewellery, so when that stops, the music stops, so self-preservation didn't help them in 1980, they went broke if they were over-exposed.

The banks have got loads of cash, they're almost giving it away as over-leveraged property punters pay off their mortgages, so it's not likely the banks will fail, they'll be well aware of the situation and have sufficient reserves.

Marc Faber and Jim Rogers love publicity and have got it consistently wrong, I won't be taking any notice of either of them.

skol, how are your airline share going? QAN down 80% in the last 5 years, XGD up 7% and gold in AUD up 100% in the last 5 years. So what's your point? Doesn't look like the up-trend is over by any means. By the way, if bank loans fall that means their assets fall, while their liabilities remain the same. Not good for the balance sheet.

[Skol]

skol, how are your airline share going? QAN down 80% in the last 5 years, XGD up 7% and gold in AUD up 100% in the last 5 years. So what's your point? Doesn't look like the up-trend is over by any means. By the way, if bank loans fall that means their assets fall, while their liabilities remain the same. Not good for the balance sheet.

I don't own QAN for the 100th time, I own VAH.
I don't own gold or silver which have to be the worst investments of 2012, in the US the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners is down 53% against the S&P500 in the last 2 years.

XGD up 7% in the last 5 years, sounds like the place not to be.

For the last 2 years the XGD is 40% behind the S&P500.

Here's proof gold is, long term, the worst investment on the planet:

'To take an extreme example [of price volatility], while dollar invested in bonds in 1801 would be worth nearly a thousand dollars by 1998, a dollar invested in stocks that same year would be worth more than half a million dollars. All this is in real terms, taking inflation into account. Meanwhile, a dollar invested in gold in 1801 would by 1998 be worth just 78 cents.'

Owning physical gold would be about as exciting as a visit to the British Lawnmower Museum.

www.lawnmowerworld.co.uk

If I want to take chances with my money I'd sooner speculate on property, a DIY job, I made a packet out of it a few years back when I was more gung-ho than I am now, and borrowing hundreds of thousands was neither here nor there. At the height of my speculating I borrowed $1,700,000, but sold nearly all of it before the GFC. Lucky.

People need property, they don't need gold.

Since the beginning of the year:

Gold is up 1%
S&P500 is up 11%
XGD is down 17%.

[skid]

A lawnmower Muesum-----COOL

[JBmurc]

SEVERAL REASONS WHY GOLD SHARES WILL SOAR

Reason #1: Gold stocks have leverage to gold bullion prices. In spite of what's occurred recently, history is on our side here, as the track record of precious metals equities demonstrates they can reward patient investors tremendously. They rose:
• 950% from January 2001 to January 2008.
• 700+% from 1970 to January 1980, including 289.5% in the last thirteen months of that period.
• 211% in less than 24 months in the mid 1990s.
• Even during the Great Depression, the two largest producers at the time - Homestake Mining and Dome Mines - rose 474% and 558% respectively.
It's normal for gold stocks to demonstrate this kind of leverage to gold. It would completely contradict the historical pattern - and common sense - for gold stocks remain where they are until this bull market ends.
(And sometimes, even when the price of gold bullion falls, gold stocks can still offer big upside. Case in point: in the 24 months from January 1, 1981 to January 1, 1983, while the price of gold bullion fell by 25% - from $597 to $446 - gold stocks rose 72%. A series of giant gold discoveries in Canada set off a mini-mania in the equities.)
Check out the historical record, which includes some mind-boggling performances by juniors.
Reason #2: Gold stocks are grossly undervalued. Gold stocks aren't just inexpensive, they're stupid cheap. Their current undervaluation is more than just compelling... it's fire-sale attractive. It should have your full attention.
Just look at the data and you'll see what I mean:
• Relative to gold, the equities have not been this cheap since the waterfall selloff in 2008. The HUI/gold ratio is roughly 0.27, close to its bottom of 0.24 in October 2008. It hovered between 0.50 and 0.60 for most of a five-year period from 2003 to 2007, and exceeded 0.60 several times.
• On average, and in spite of weak gold prices at present, industrywide margins are roughly $1,000 per ounce. The price of gold wasn't even $1,000 30 months ago.
• As a group, gold stocks are selling for less than their net asset value... by 20%. They traded 60% above their NAV in 2007, a common level for precious metals equities.
• Average P/E ratios of the 10 largest gold producers are less than half what they were just two years ago.
• As we mentioned a few weeks ago, for a $1,000 investment right now, you can get about 0.6 ounces of gold. For the same $1,000, however, you'd get four ounces of gold by buying shares of Goldcorp or more than five ounces by buying Eldorado Gold.
This undervaluation cannot and will not last. Even the trader who knows nothing about Newmont or Barrick or Goldcorp will sooner or later want to jump on this - and if he doesn't, his boss will want to know why. Read what one Sprott fund manager thinks about gold stocks.
Reason #3: Gold stocks are universally under-owned. There are plenty of reports about how little gold and silver the average mainstream investor owns - which likely means they own even less of gold equities. But the disconnect is bigger than you realize...
In the institutional world, pension funds sit at the head of the table. However, the typical fund devotes only 3% to commodities, and of that 3%, only 5% is committed to gold and gold stocks. In other words, only 0.15% of assets are in gold and another 0.15% in gold mining stocks, a pathetic total of less than one-third of one percent. Ditto other institutional investors.
Given the gamut of sovereign risks in virtually the entire world, even the developed world, the lack of gold and gold stock ownership is appalling. That will change as the growing fiat currency risks around the world impact investors more deeply.
Reason #4: All that cash has gotta go somewhere. It's one thing to say gold stocks are under-owned, but is the money available to buy them? One could make an argument that any rush into gold equities would be muted if no one has any savings or if demographics dictate that a fifth of the developed world will soon be retired.
At the end of Q1, S&P 500 corporations had $1.7 trillion in cash and another $4 trillion in short-term investments. The M1 money supply is currently $2.2 trillion. Pension assets exceed $31 trillion, more than twice the size of last year's GDP in the US.
Contrast those figures with the market cap of all primary gold producers trading in North America: about $800 billion. Or the market cap of all primary silver producers: a measly $32 billion.
• If corporations moved 5% of their "short-term investments" into gold stocks, the market cap of the industry would increase by 20%.
• If they chose silver stocks, it'd grow by a factor of six.
• Five percent of M1 would increase the market cap of gold producers by 14%; it would be 3.4 times bigger than the entire current value of all primary silver producers.
• If pension funds doubled their allocation to gold stocks (making it a puny 0.6% of total assets), it would amount to $93 billion in new purchases. If they went to 5%, $1.5 trillion would flood the industry.
Check out the chart of these data. And by the way, don't forget other corporations in the US and around the world, insurance companies, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, mutual funds, private equity funds, privat e wealth funds, ETFs, and millions of global retail investors. There are, quite literally, tons of cash available for investment in whatever sector the mainstream targets.
What if they all enter the gold market at or near the same time?
Reason #5: Physical gold may become hard to get. The gap between supply and demand isn't letting up. Since 2001, worldwide production is flat, despite a sixfold increase in the gold price - and demand has grown from $3 billion to $80 billion.
I'm in touch with bullion dealers on a regular basis, and they're all saying the same things. Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin insisted that the bullion market "will ultimately be defined by complete lack of available supply." Border Gold's Michael Levy cautioned, "If an overwhelming loss of confidence in the US unfolds, the demand for physical gold and silver will far outweigh all known inventories." And Mike Maloney of GoldSilver.com warned that if shortages develop, "physical bullion coins and bars might become unobtainable regardless of price."
As increasing numbers of people view gold as a must-own asset, and as supply is not keeping up with demand, where is the next logical place for investors to turn to get exposure? Gold stocks.
Imagine the plight of the mainstream investor who calls a bullion dealer and is told they have no inventory and don't know when they'll get any. Picture those with wealth finally becoming convinced they must own precious metals and being informed they'll have to put their name on a waiting list. Imagine a pension fund or other institutional investor scrambling to get more metal for its fund and being advised the amount it wants is "currently unavailable."
Mining equities would be the fastest way to meet that demand. It'll be the next logical step to take - maybe the only sensible step available if the supply of physical metal remains constrained. It will feel like the most natural thing in the world for them to do. It is indeed the overlooked reason gold stocks will soar.
Reason #6: Gold has a lot further to climb. This is why I'm convinced gold stocks will soar again: a rising gold price. Many investors have focused on gold's lackluster movement for the past eight months, forgetting that it rose a total of 2,333% in the 1970s - with much less currency dilution than we have today. For gold to match the same percentage rise from its 2001 low, the price would hit $6,227 per ounce. Nothing says it has to match that price - but neither does it have to stop there. Given the ongoing caustic actions of politicians, we see much more upside risk in gold than downside.
And here's the key for gold stocks: once the gold price resumes its uptrend and begins making new records again, all sorts of investors - from large market-moving institutions to small retail buyers - will return to gold equities. I suggest beating them to it.
Reason #7: "The boat" has a leak. The dilution of our currency is on a nonstop - and scary - trajectory. Just since January 1, 2000, US dollars have lost a whopping 26% in purchasing power. The Canadian dollar has lost 23%. This is a serious and gross devaluation of what we use for money. Meanwhile, gold has gained 325% in purchasing power (after accounting for inflation as measured by the CPI, which understates the amount of inflation by a considerable amount). And this is while the gold price has gone nowhere since last September.
The problem is, the leak in our economy is only going to get bigger. The monetary base now exceeds $2.6 trillion, up 215% since January 2008; the national debt is over $15.7 trillion and will conservatively reach $20 trillion in just three years; the $1.3-trillion US budget deficit, which is more than the entire US budget was just 20 years ago; the approximate $4 trillion in US Treasuries held in foreign central banks, many of which continue making arrangements to bypass the dollar; the vulnerable and propped-up economies around the globe; the still-unresolved European debt crisis; the many negative real interest rates that show no sign of reversing course anytime soon.
These are massive megatrends that won't be reconciled without further, serious dilution of the currency - it's the only politically acceptable way to decrease the debt burden. This is why we're convinced more money-printing in the US and around the world is highly likely - whether they call it "quantitative easing" or try to hide it under some other guise - especially if we get another deflationary scare. With the only logical choice being to print, gold will be forced higher by an order of magnitude.
I say all this about gold because I think that is the key to gold stocks. If gold and silver are destined for higher levels, gold stocks will follow. I know they haven't demonstrated that for a while now, but slumps don't last forever.
The bottom line is this: Gold stocks do respond when gold goes higher - and gold is going higher because of completely unsustainable fiscal and monetary actions of governments all around the world.
So, will gold stocks really soar again someday? The historical record of gold stock manias... the extreme undervaluation of gold equities... the lack of mainstream participation in our market... the abundance of available cash... dwindling supply and rising demand... the massive disconnect between gold and gold stocks... the likely trajectory of the gold price... and last but not least, the political compulsion to dilute the currency further... all these factors point to an incredible opportunity to buy gold stocks at extremely low levels and someday realize potentially life-changing rewards.
Hang in there, my friends. Our time will come. In fact, I predict that someday we'll wonder why anyone doubted it in the first place.

[Skol]

Pie in the sky.

HUI down 1.6% overnite and silver down 1.45%.

"our time will come". It will but probably in 2034.

And Mike Maloney says gold coins and bars might be unobtainable. Baloney from Maloney, the world has never run out of anything.

[skid]

The world has never run out of anything----Ill think Ill save that one in my quote book LOL

[BIRMANBOY]

Theres a reason why "most" people/investors dont follow and or support PM stocks and the like....its because they dont trust them. Simple really. If you spent as much time and effort and energy in other more mainstream endeavours your productivty would be mind boggling;). Don Quixote has nothing on this "impossible quest". Love your last sentence, "Hang in there, my friends. Our time will come. In fact, I predict that someday we'll wonder why anyone doubted it in the first place" ,......maybe but will they live long enough and have any hair left.
SEVERAL REASONS WHY GOLD SHARES WILL SOAR

Reason #1: Gold stocks have leverage to gold bullion prices. In spite of what's occurred recently, history is on our side here, as the track record of precious metals equities demonstrates they can reward patient investors tremendously. They rose:
• 950% from January 2001 to January 2008.
• 700+% from 1970 to January 1980, including 289.5% in the last thirteen months of that period.
• 211% in less than 24 months in the mid 1990s.
• Even during the Great Depression, the two largest producers at the time - Homestake Mining and Dome Mines - rose 474% and 558% respectively.
It's normal for gold stocks to demonstrate this kind of leverage to gold. It would completely contradict the historical pattern - and common sense - for gold stocks remain where they are until this bull market ends.
(And sometimes, even when the price of gold bullion falls, gold stocks can still offer big upside. Case in point: in the 24 months from January 1, 1981 to January 1, 1983, while the price of gold bullion fell by 25% - from $597 to $446 - gold stocks rose 72%. A series of giant gold discoveries in Canada set off a mini-mania in the equities.)
Check out the historical record, which includes some mind-boggling performances by juniors.
Reason #2: Gold stocks are grossly undervalued. Gold stocks aren't just inexpensive, they're stupid cheap. Their current undervaluation is more than just compelling... it's fire-sale attractive. It should have your full attention.
Just look at the data and you'll see what I mean:
• Relative to gold, the equities have not been this cheap since the waterfall selloff in 2008. The HUI/gold ratio is roughly 0.27, close to its bottom of 0.24 in October 2008. It hovered between 0.50 and 0.60 for most of a five-year period from 2003 to 2007, and exceeded 0.60 several times.
• On average, and in spite of weak gold prices at present, industrywide margins are roughly $1,000 per ounce. The price of gold wasn't even $1,000 30 months ago.
• As a group, gold stocks are selling for less than their net asset value... by 20%. They traded 60% above their NAV in 2007, a common level for precious metals equities.
• Average P/E ratios of the 10 largest gold producers are less than half what they were just two years ago.
• As we mentioned a few weeks ago, for a $1,000 investment right now, you can get about 0.6 ounces of gold. For the same $1,000, however, you'd get four ounces of gold by buying shares of Goldcorp or more than five ounces by buying Eldorado Gold.
This undervaluation cannot and will not last. Even the trader who knows nothing about Newmont or Barrick or Goldcorp will sooner or later want to jump on this - and if he doesn't, his boss will want to know why. Read what one Sprott fund manager thinks about gold stocks.
Reason #3: Gold stocks are universally under-owned. There are plenty of reports about how little gold and silver the average mainstream investor owns - which likely means they own even less of gold equities. But the disconnect is bigger than you realize...
In the institutional world, pension funds sit at the head of the table. However, the typical fund devotes only 3% to commodities, and of that 3%, only 5% is committed to gold and gold stocks. In other words, only 0.15% of assets are in gold and another 0.15% in gold mining stocks, a pathetic total of less than one-third of one percent. Ditto other institutional investors.
Given the gamut of sovereign risks in virtually the entire world, even the developed world, the lack of gold and gold stock ownership is appalling. That will change as the growing fiat currency risks around the world impact investors more deeply.
Reason #4: All that cash has gotta go somewhere. It's one thing to say gold stocks are under-owned, but is the money available to buy them? One could make an argument that any rush into gold equities would be muted if no one has any savings or if demographics dictate that a fifth of the developed world will soon be retired.
At the end of Q1, S&P 500 corporations had $1.7 trillion in cash and another $4 trillion in short-term investments. The M1 money supply is currently $2.2 trillion. Pension assets exceed $31 trillion, more than twice the size of last year's GDP in the US.
Contrast those figures with the market cap of all primary gold producers trading in North America: about $800 billion. Or the market cap of all primary silver producers: a measly $32 billion.
• If corporations moved 5% of their "short-term investments" into gold stocks, the market cap of the industry would increase by 20%.
• If they chose silver stocks, it'd grow by a factor of six.
• Five percent of M1 would increase the market cap of gold producers by 14%; it would be 3.4 times bigger than the entire current value of all primary silver producers.
• If pension funds doubled their allocation to gold stocks (making it a puny 0.6% of total assets), it would amount to $93 billion in new purchases. If they went to 5%, $1.5 trillion would flood the industry.
Check out the chart of these data. And by the way, don't forget other corporations in the US and around the world, insurance companies, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, mutual funds, private equity funds, privat e wealth funds, ETFs, and millions of global retail investors. There are, quite literally, tons of cash available for investment in whatever sector the mainstream targets.
What if they all enter the gold market at or near the same time?
Reason #5: Physical gold may become hard to get. The gap between supply and demand isn't letting up. Since 2001, worldwide production is flat, despite a sixfold increase in the gold price - and demand has grown from $3 billion to $80 billion.
I'm in touch with bullion dealers on a regular basis, and they're all saying the same things. Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin insisted that the bullion market "will ultimately be defined by complete lack of available supply." Border Gold's Michael Levy cautioned, "If an overwhelming loss of confidence in the US unfolds, the demand for physical gold and silver will far outweigh all known inventories." And Mike Maloney of GoldSilver.com warned that if shortages develop, "physical bullion coins and bars might become unobtainable regardless of price."
As increasing numbers of people view gold as a must-own asset, and as supply is not keeping up with demand, where is the next logical place for investors to turn to get exposure? Gold stocks.
Imagine the plight of the mainstream investor who calls a bullion dealer and is told they have no inventory and don't know when they'll get any. Picture those with wealth finally becoming convinced they must own precious metals and being informed they'll have to put their name on a waiting list. Imagine a pension fund or other institutional investor scrambling to get more metal for its fund and being advised the amount it wants is "currently unavailable."
Mining equities would be the fastest way to meet that demand. It'll be the next logical step to take - maybe the only sensible step available if the supply of physical metal remains constrained. It will feel like the most natural thing in the world for them to do. It is indeed the overlooked reason gold stocks will soar.
Reason #6: Gold has a lot further to climb. This is why I'm convinced gold stocks will soar again: a rising gold price. Many investors have focused on gold's lackluster movement for the past eight months, forgetting that it rose a total of 2,333% in the 1970s - with much less currency dilution than we have today. For gold to match the same percentage rise from its 2001 low, the price would hit $6,227 per ounce. Nothing says it has to match that price - but neither does it have to stop there. Given the ongoing caustic actions of politicians, we see much more upside risk in gold than downside.
And here's the key for gold stocks: once the gold price resumes its uptrend and begins making new records again, all sorts of investors - from large market-moving institutions to small retail buyers - will return to gold equities. I suggest beating them to it.
Reason #7: "The boat" has a leak. The dilution of our currency is on a nonstop - and scary - trajectory. Just since January 1, 2000, US dollars have lost a whopping 26% in purchasing power. The Canadian dollar has lost 23%. This is a serious and gross devaluation of what we use for money. Meanwhile, gold has gained 325% in purchasing power (after accounting for inflation as measured by the CPI, which understates the amount of inflation by a considerable amount). And this is while the gold price has gone nowhere since last September.
The problem is, the leak in our economy is only going to get bigger. The monetary base now exceeds $2.6 trillion, up 215% since January 2008; the national debt is over $15.7 trillion and will conservatively reach $20 trillion in just three years; the $1.3-trillion US budget deficit, which is more than the entire US budget was just 20 years ago; the approximate $4 trillion in US Treasuries held in foreign central banks, many of which continue making arrangements to bypass the dollar; the vulnerable and propped-up economies around the globe; the still-unresolved European debt crisis; the many negative real interest rates that show no sign of reversing course anytime soon.
These are massive megatrends that won't be reconciled without further, serious dilution of the currency - it's the only politically acceptable way to decrease the debt burden. This is why we're convinced more money-printing in the US and around the world is highly likely - whether they call it "quantitative easing" or try to hide it under some other guise - especially if we get another deflationary scare. With the only logical choice being to print, gold will be forced higher by an order of magnitude.
I say all this about gold because I think that is the key to gold stocks. If gold and silver are destined for higher levels, gold stocks will follow. I know they haven't demonstrated that for a while now, but slumps don't last forever.
The bottom line is this: Gold stocks do respond when gold goes higher - and gold is going higher because of completely unsustainable fiscal and monetary actions of governments all around the world.
So, will gold stocks really soar again someday? The historical record of gold stock manias... the extreme undervaluation of gold equities... the lack of mainstream participation in our market... the abundance of available cash... dwindling supply and rising demand... the massive disconnect between gold and gold stocks... the likely trajectory of the gold price... and last but not least, the political compulsion to dilute the currency further... all these factors point to an incredible opportunity to buy gold stocks at extremely low levels and someday realize potentially life-changing rewards.
Hang in there, my friends. Our time will come. In fact, I predict that someday we'll wonder why anyone doubted it in the first place.

[JBmurc]

I didn't write the above but agree with it ..

well we will see ... my fav gold producer PGI will produce gold at $331oz and start to pay divvies next year it's current market value could be brought back by it's cashflows each year going forward no reason they won't pay a 10% divvie p.a and still have the cash to move towards mid-cap producer 150koz+ p.a



This past Wednesday, June 18, 2012 the FDIC ( Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, USA ) Proposed Rule Changes to categorize gold as a Zero Percent Risk-Weighted, Tier 1 Asset.

This is significantly bullish for gold in the long term as this potential systemic change could drive gold demand and gold prices much higher.

In light of the global financial downturn, cash and bonds have begun to lose their luster as Global Financial Regulators Have Begun To Recognize the implied risks behind these paper assets.

In a world characterized by central bank printing binges and rampant government spending, banking regulators are quietly being forced to recognize one of the only remaining counter-party risk free assets: Gold.



http://goldsilver.com/article/fdic-to-classify-gold-as-a-zero-percent-risk-weighted-asset/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Gold++Silver+Weekly+-+6+-+26+-+2012&utm_content=Gold++Silver+Weekly+-+6+-+26+-+2012+CID_372c2892949b453265be88bc706c263d&utm_source=GoldSilver+Email+Marketing&utm_term=read+more

[Skol]

The Indians are selling gold not buying it.

I can't imagine that goldbugs, many of whom I consider to be of somewhat limited intelligence, spending their evenings studying 'Tier 1 Assets".

Some central banks have been buying gold this year I discovered 2 days ago, and gold still goes down.

Most ASX indices up today, except gold, down another 1.5%, the bottomless pit and road to ruin.

[elZorro]

The Indians are selling gold not buying it.

I can't imagine that goldbugs, many of whom I consider to be of somewhat limited intelligence, spending their evenings studying 'Tier 1 Assets".

Some central banks have been buying gold this year I discovered 2 days ago, and gold still goes down.

Most ASX indices up today, except gold, down another 1.5%, the bottomless pit and road to ruin.

OK, I'll bite..

1. The Indians are selling gold, not buying it
They might be net sellers at the moment, what about the peak buying season (festivals and weddings) coming up?

2. Can you prove that goldbugs are any less intelligent than contrarian investors for example?

3. Central banks are buying gold. Guess what happened in the last 3-4 hours, gold recovered $40 to just under $1600. It's crashing all right.

Many miners report their average cost of gold extraction once mining, to be US$900 or so. Add in massive exploration costs, and this puts a bottom on the price.

[Skol]

1. The Indians are selling and the govt is even looking at banning the sales of gold coins by the banks in an effort to curb overall gold demand. The President of the Bombay Bullion Association expects $1400 gold this year and maybe lower. Jim Rogers reckons gold could fall 40-50% if the Indians cease gold imports.

I've heard the rain isn't falling in India, less rain means less crops, means less gold sales.

2. A lot of goldbugs are naive in the extreme, amateur economists following the teachings of the internet 'experts' like Jim Sinclair, the Aden Sisters, Peter Schiff, Max Keiser, Eric Hommelberg and scores of others. These amateurs can't think for themselves, they rely on the prognosticators, not thinking for a moment that gold is risky and that trying to get rich quick off it is even riskier. They always present the world as being on the brink of ruin, we're all doomed, buy gold or else you'll end up in the poorhouse. One particularly bad offender of this strategy was Glenn Beck who convinced millions of unsophisticated Americans that if they didn't buy gold they were finished financially. Apparently Glenn has now sold all his gold and thanks his viewers for making him millions. Beck's show stopped, coincidentally, about the time gold hit its peak.

Goldbugs are always on the lookout for the next crisis that's going to send gold into deep space and portends the end of the economic world as we know it. These layman economists profess to know more than Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke who they deride as incompetent and involved in a government conspiracy to place a lid on the price of gold, conspiracy theories being central to the goldbug philosophy. e.g. Fort Knox is empty: what kind of pinhead imagines that the garrison commander Major General Jefforey A. Smith, who has access to the vault is going to write in his reports that 8800 tonnes of gold is there when it isn't?

I can tell that many goldbugs are grossly overexposed to gold and silver, a policy that may be their undoing, they think that gold is 'rare' and 'scarce', even thought there's 180,000 tonnes of it stashed away.

They despise the Rothschilds, anti-semitism runs through the heart of the goldbug philosophy, they blame the Rothschilds and other Jewish bankers for the world's ills and read books like The Protocols of the Elders of Zion.

After the rout in silver prices last year, the WSJ reported that one dimwit who had bought at the top was outraged that silver had halved in price said "I heard that silver was going to $150". Another harebrain said that his gold shares were going up to a particular figure, and when someone did a calculation it amounted to a 570,000% gain, someone else a while back said he expected gold to go to $1,000,000 and ounce.

They honestly believe that fiat money is finished, that next year when I rego my fox terrier I'm gonna be doing it with pieces of 8 or gold sovereigns. They have believed for the last few years that the USD is finished, gonna be 'confetti', and that hyperinflation is just around the corner and the gold standard is on the way back.
One even told me that it's just not possible for gold to fall below $750, because that's the cost of extracting it from the ground. It's amazing, the naivety, he thinks that gold is in such demand that mining MUST go on and can't possibly comprehend that if gold drops enough, mining will stop.
Actually in todays paper it says the cost of extraction for OGC is US$1126.

There's a fortress mentality amongst goldbugs and rampant paranoia, feelings of persecution by the Rothschilds and the 'elites', that they haven't had a fair go in life, and that the 'banksters' are manipulating the price of gold and silver and stopping them getting rich. They bury gold in the garden, hide it and don't insure it, because telling the insurance company might tip off the gubbermint who might come and steal it.

I'm often vilified as a 'gold hater' because I'm sceptical of the outrageous claims made by goldbugs, they only want to hear good things, not bad things. When gold goes up it's 'gold on its way to the moon' when gold goes down it's the 'manipulators' and JP Morgans fault. Many goldbugs are in dire need of psychotherapy. They have their own slang, 'gold haters', 'painted charts' 'mainstream press', 'govnuts' and 'the dark side'.

Then there's the 'New World Order' and the 'Illuminati', some are religious cranks that hang on every word of demented Pastor Lindsey Williams.

You get the drift?

3. Central Banks have been buying gold all year and the price has dropped, yes it went up last night, so did all commodities.

This from Reuters:

Gold coin consumption, viewed by some as a market-fear gauge, tumbled in the second quarter to levels not seen since before the 2008 economic crisis, reflecting the metal's failure to attract safe-haven bids despite economic uncertainty.

Sales of the U.S. Mint's American Eagle gold coins fell more than 50 percent year-on-year to 127,500 ounces in the second quarter, their worst three months since the second quarter of 2008 -- prior to the height of the global economic crisis, the Mint's website showed.

Physical gold buying in major consumer India picked up a little on Friday. Weakness in Indian demand has undermined spot prices this year, with Indian gold prices near record highs due to rupee weakness.

Check this out:

www.investingdecoded.com

[JBmurc]

13 states now are seeking approval from their state governments to either issue their own alternative hard currency or explore it as an option.


http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/03/pf/states_currencies/index.htm

[Skol]

13 states now are seeking approval from their state governments to either issue their own alternative hard currency or explore it as an option.


http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/03/pf/states_currencies/index.htm

Hey EZ,

While we're on the subject of gullible goldbugs here's one right here, JB Murc, he's been preaching the end of fiat money, the end of the USD, and hyperinflation for years and who's currently losing heaps on 1500 oz of silver in the basement.

[JBmurc]

Hey EZ,

While we're on the subject of gullible goldbugs here's one right here, JB Murc, he's been preaching the end of fiat money, the end of the USD, and hyperinflation for years and who's currently losing heaps on 1500 oz of silver in the basement.

""What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end""......

I've been preaching one must diverse one's investments nothing wrong with holding some gold/silver bullion,property,shares etc I've never once stated one should only hold bullion !
.....Any sane human knows the worlds fiat debt woes are only being fixed by temporary solution's....every 30 seconds the US debt grows 1.4 million ...unemployment rises ....numbers get fixed,,,Fiat money gets created fills the debt gaps till next time ,,bail out here bail out there....no law for some completely .....different law for the rest (corzine "I don't know where 1.2billion went" )

I don't have to preach the end of fiat money it's a Historic fact...

The history of fiat money, to put it kindly, has been one of failure. In fact, EVERY fiat currency since the Romans first began the practice in the first century has ended in devaluation and eventual collapse, of not only the currency, but of the economy that housed the fiat currency as well....please those of slow learning (thats you sparky re-read till you get it)

[Lizard]

The history of fiat money, to put it kindly, has been one of failure. In fact, EVERY fiat currency since the Romans first began the practice in the first century has ended in devaluation and eventual collapse, of not only the currency, but of the economy that housed the fiat currency as well....please those of slow learning (thats you sparky re-read till you get it)

And now for some examples of non-fiat currencies that have survived....?

[percy]

[QUOTE=Skol;376569]1.

I've heard the rain isn't falling in India, less rain means less crops, means less gold sales.

Bangladesh Floods means it is pouring down.

[Skol]

[QUOTE=Skol;376569]1.

I've heard the rain isn't falling in India, less rain means less crops, means less gold sales.

Bangladesh Floods means it is pouring down.

Not according to Jon Nadler:

Several days ago we also mentioned that it would be wise to keep an eye out for…the weather as regards future (fall) festival-related gold demand in India. Less rain means fewer crops, which, in turn, means less cash available to spend on baubles by rural India’s residents. While there is still time (and hope) that the worst start to the monsoon season in three years could be turned around, the current situation not only has farmers and the weathermen up at night, but also the country’s jewelers. The season ends with the harvest in September and is followed by a traditional buildup of bullion demand into Diwali – which starts this year on the 13th of November.

[percy]

[QUOTE=percy;376584]

Not according to Jon Nadler:

Several days ago we also mentioned that it would be wise to keep an eye out for…the weather as regards future (fall) festival-related gold demand in India. Less rain means fewer crops, which, in turn, means less cash available to spend on baubles by rural India’s residents. While there is still time (and hope) that the worst start to the monsoon season in three years could be turned around, the current situation not only has farmers and the weathermen up at night, but also the country’s jewelers. The season ends with the harvest in September and is followed by a traditional buildup of bullion demand into Diwali – which starts this year on the 13th of November.

Would appear he is wrong as the floods prove.

[Skol]

[QUOTE=Skol;376588]

Would appear he is wrong as the floods prove.

It seems that Jon Nadler is right. Bangladesh is not India, check your schoolboy atlas.

From the Times of India:

PATNA: With rain god still not showering his blessings on the state, it's just not the common man who is feeling the heat, but the farmers are also a worried lot as sowing of kharif crops might be seriously hit if it doesn't rain in the state in the next few days. So far, there has been a 40% rain deficit in Bihar.

Though the situation is not alarming yet for the crops, it might turn grim, particularly for paddy and sugarcane crops, if the deficiency of rainfall persists, warn experts.

[elZorro]

[QUOTE=Skol;376588]

Would appear he is wrong as the floods prove.

I found this link on the monsoon weather in India, looks to be trending in a normal way, the upper areas of India usually get the monsoon early in July. Should be a normal Diwali festival with conspicuous gold consumption...

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/allindianew.pdf

[Skol]

[QUOTE=percy;376590]

I found this link on the monsoon weather in India, looks to be trending in a normal way, the upper areas of India usually get the monsoon early in July. Should be a normal Diwali festival with conspicuous gold consumption...

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/allindianew.pdf

Correct EZ.

'Should' be normal but at the moment it isn't.


Weatherman is also very cautious in predicting the nature of the monsoon. Patna Met department director A K Sen said, "The monsoon was deficient in the state mainly due to non-formation of strong weather system in the Bay of Bengal and northward shift of the heat trough towards the foothills of Himalayas. This happens in exceptional circumstances only." He warned, "Even if it rains sufficiently in July, but adequate rain doesn't continue till September, the overall rainfall for the season would remain scanty and it would be difficult to overcome the deficit."

[JBmurc]

And now for some examples of non-fiat currencies that have survived....?

well any currencies of old that were made up of real assets i.e gold silver coins value has survived and increased massively compare that to a roll of old paper money....

Now don't get me wrong I don't see the world going back to silver gold coins as a means of barter / trade but i do think once the current world reserve fiat ponzi scheme of fractional banking mass creation of debt finally hits the wall which it will as soon the interest on the debt will become larger than the GDP , a new world currency will come about most likely backed but some real assets in turn devaluing the old debts ....gold/silver is a great store of value the likes of the USD has lost 90%+ of it's purchasing power

[Skol]

well any currencies of old that were made up of real assets i.e gold silver coins value has survived and increased massively compare that to a roll of old paper money....

Now don't get me wrong I don't see the world going back to silver gold coins as a means of barter / trade but i do think once the current world reserve fiat ponzi scheme of fractional banking mass creation of debt finally hits the wall which it will as soon the interest on the debt will become larger than the GDP , a new world currency will come about most likely backed but some real assets in turn devaluing the old debts ....gold/silver is a great store of value the likes of the USD has lost 90%+ of it's purchasing power

Silver has lost 50% and gold 20% of its purchasing power in the last 12 months - think I'll stick with USD.

[upside_umop]

well any currencies of old that were made up of real assets i.e gold silver coins value has survived and increased massively compare that to a roll of old paper money....

Now don't get me wrong I don't see the world going back to silver gold coins as a means of barter / trade but i do think once the current world reserve fiat ponzi scheme of fractional banking mass creation of debt finally hits the wall which it will as soon the interest on the debt will become larger than the GDP , a new world currency will come about most likely backed but some real assets in turn devaluing the old debts ....gold/silver is a great store of value the likes of the USD has lost 90%+ of it's purchasing power

JB, I think you're missing the point. Everyone knows that the fiat money system creates inflation, that's no secret. The RBNZ has a target of 1 - 3% over the medium term. Why? Because it creates an environment of certainty. This 1 - 3% is seen to be the opportunity cost that won't incentivise peoples purchasing decisions over the medium term.

Look at Japan. Over the last 2 decades they have had little inflation and economic growth. The Japanese expected prices to fall and therefore held off buying...this in turn slows down part of the economy as they can't sell things. It spirals and spreads. The US don't want this to happen....

On the other hand, look at Zimbabwe. Nobody wants hyperinflation either....and there is no sign of it coming here. Sure the USD might have lost 90% of it's purchasing power over the years, but what has real income done?

I've said and shown you before that when we were on the gold standard, we were in recession more often than not...and that's fact. Gold is not coming back...only if we end up Cowboys and Indians again.

[hal]

Silver has lost 50% and gold 20% of its purchasing power in the last 12 months - think I'll stick with USD.

Just to be fair can you quote the Gold & Silver price from 12 months ago.

[elZorro]

Gold's just taking a breather, here's a measured approach in this article. About a month and a half old, but not much has changed.

http://www.investmentu.com/2012/may/gold-price-forecast.html

[Skol]

Gold's just taking a breather, here's a measured approach in this article. About a month and a half old, but not much has changed.

http://www.investmentu.com/2012/may/gold-price-forecast.html

Back the truck up then.

[Skol]

Just to be fair can you quote the Gold & Silver price from 12 months ago.

You are quite right hal, not 50% for silver, down 29%, I forgot about the crash from $50 to $32 in early May.

[skid]

Getting back to the present..Looks like they are throwing some money at European banks which will most likely help commodities in the short term

[hal]

You are quite right hal, not 50% for silver, down 29%, I forgot about the crash from $50 to $32 in early May.

And Gold was up for the last 12 months from $1500 to $1599.

Not down 20% at all.

[STRAT]

Coulda fooled me.

Gold down 20% since it's top.
XGD down 30% in the last year.
HUi down 24% in the last year
XAU down 25% in the last year

What's done worse?
Sorry Skol. Only saw this one from the 30th of May just now.

Well. How about the All Ords for a starter
Chart shows both side by side.:p

[STRAT]

You asked whats done worse than Gold but the chart above was/is only relevant to the short term so here is a few more time frames.
All Ords Vs Gold in Aussie dollars over 5 time frames. 1 to 5 years.

[Skol]

Strat,

The XGD reflects Aussie gold shares, try showing XGD vs. All Ords.

[STRAT]

Strat,

The XGD reflects Aussie gold shares, try showing XGD vs. All Ords.I thought this was a thread about Gold. Not Gold stocks but I will put it up anyway. Seems like a side step to me :D

[STRAT]

Hi Skol.
Here they are at 1 to 5 years.

The 1 year chart certainly leans towards your argument but 3 years and more not so much.

Im no Gold bug but one has to wonder when comparing Gold stock performance to the POG if in fact Gold Stocks have been sold down a bit too hard. I might keep an eye out for a rebound. Thanks for bringing that to my attention. Skol

[JBmurc]

Yes Gold stocks have been under the radar for some time.. good move in blue chip goldie NCM up 4% last I looked...only a matter of time to the market warms while the profit margins are so FAT how many miners have 200-400% margins in the metals they produce...when you look at many of the other metal miners that are happy just to have a margin these days....I'm overweight in gold producers on the back of there upside of value to net cashflows

[elZorro]

How's about that gold price Skol??

Busted out above $1600, looks like a flight to safety.

[Skol]

But how long will it last? Gold has probably entered a bear market, so I hope you're not overexposed EZ.

[skid]

The opposite of the so called ''goldbugs'' are the big players that are shorting gold.-In the last few days they are the ones that have been overexposed--They got Fleeeeeced..!!

[Skol]

The opposite of the so called ''goldbugs'' are the big players that are shorting gold.-In the last few days they are the ones that have been overexposed--They got Fleeeeeced..!!

How about some proof! A goldbug fantasy.

[Aaron]

Not sure how to link to bloomberg but there was a video from a guy (admittedly selling his gold fund) looking at gold as a financial asset and if i understand him correctly the value of gold has been about 40% of the money supply but has not increased with the expansion of the money supply. I think he was saying that if gold was to reach 40% of the money supply again it would need to be about $4,500 an oz. Is gold money? why do central banks still hold gold if it isn't.
I agree it is purely speculative because if gold isn't money then it probably isn't that valuable even if it is rare(you can make pretty jewellery from lots of things). I also think paper money could quickly lose value as well if people stop believing in it and they keep making more. Zimbabwe is a good example of what happens when you have too much printing. I bet they would trade a couple of million dollars(zimbabwe) for an oz of gold. $US might get there one day.

[stevo1]

Not sure how to link to bloomberg but there was a video from a guy (admittedly selling his gold fund) looking at gold as a financial asset and if i understand him correctly the value of gold has been about 40% of the money supply but has not increased with the expansion of the money supply. I think he was saying that if gold was to reach 40% of the money supply again it would need to be about $4,500 an oz. Is gold money? why do central banks still hold gold if it isn't.
I agree it is purely speculative because if gold isn't money then it probably isn't that valuable even if it is rare(you can make pretty jewellery from lots of things). I also think paper money could quickly lose value as well if people stop believing in it and they keep making more. Zimbabwe is a good example of what happens when you have too much printing. I bet they would trade a couple of million dollars(zimbabwe) for an oz of gold. $US might get there one day.
I bought a 1 billion or was it a 1 trillion Zimbabwian note for $12

[JBmurc]

If the USA was a company it would be bankrupt---- "80+ trillion liabilities with 2trillion coming in"


http://goldsilver.com/video/the-ticking-debt-bomb-16-trillion-and-climbing/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Gold++Silver+Weekly+-+7+-+3+-+2012&utm_content=Gold++Silver+Weekly+-+7+-+3+-+2012+CID_ce0b75ad24a0f13fa46183949d0bb78c&utm_source=GoldSilver+Email+Marketing&utm_term=read+more

[Skol]

Gold's a great investment. The gold gamblers between 1981 and 2002 lost 70%.

[upside_umop]

If the USA was a company it would be bankrupt---- "80+ trillion liabilities with 2trillion coming in"


http://goldsilver.com/video/the-ticking-debt-bomb-16-trillion-and-climbing/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Gold++Silver+Weekly+-+7+-+3+-+2012&utm_content=Gold++Silver+Weekly+-+7+-+3+-+2012+CID_ce0b75ad24a0f13fa46183949d0bb78c&utm_source=GoldSilver+Email+Marketing&utm_term=read+more

I didn't see anywhere that it said $80 trillion in debt JB?

It said 16 trillion = $50,000 per person = less than 100% of GDP? I don't see the problem? Japan is over 200%.

Apparently, the USD has around 80 trillion in net assets. I don't think we have anything to worry about JB.

With manufacturing going back to the US, the competitive advantage of cheap energy, and the status of world reserve currency...the USA are fine!

[elZorro]

I didn't see anywhere that it said $80 trillion in debt JB?

It said 16 trillion = $50,000 per person = less than 100% of GDP? I don't see the problem? Japan is over 200%.

Apparently, the USD has around 80 trillion in net assets. I don't think we have anything to worry about JB.

With manufacturing going back to the US, the competitive advantage of cheap energy, and the status of world reserve currency...the USA are fine!

Is manufacturing really heading back to the US? What about the great leap backwards to a more average hourly pay for everyone? In this global world, a welder in India is paid $25 for a week's work. They are getting the big jobs.

[upside_umop]

Most of it is automated now, so it makes sense to have the capital investment close to the market. I don't want to own a car welded by an untrained indian.

I just think JB's constant scare mongering of the USA is a little weak.

[hal]

Gold's a great investment. The gold gamblers between 1981 and 2002 lost 70%.

Wow thats handy information. What about from 2002 to 2012?

[upside_umop]

Not sure how to link to bloomberg but there was a video from a guy (admittedly selling his gold fund) looking at gold as a financial asset and if i understand him correctly the value of gold has been about 40% of the money supply but has not increased with the expansion of the money supply. I think he was saying that if gold was to reach 40% of the money supply again it would need to be about $4,500 an oz. Is gold money? why do central banks still hold gold if it isn't.
I agree it is purely speculative because if gold isn't money then it probably isn't that valuable even if it is rare(you can make pretty jewellery from lots of things). I also think paper money could quickly lose value as well if people stop believing in it and they keep making more. Zimbabwe is a good example of what happens when you have too much printing. I bet they would trade a couple of million dollars(zimbabwe) for an oz of gold. $US might get there one day.

I watched that video - what a joke. Why on earth does he think that gold has a linear relationship to the monetary base? Gold is worth as much as it costs to mine out and for someone to spend the time and opportunity cost to lock it away. To me, that would be 0. But to the other fools, it's currently $2000 nzd.

Is gold money? No - you can't go and use it in general expenditure, can you? The Fed still holds it's gold at historical cost so obviously doesn't care about it too much.

What other central banks hold gold in developed countries? 5/8 th's of sweet f.a.

JB, you talk of these gold miners making fat profits? You mean, your ARV, HLX, NAV, PXG to name a few? These have only been going one way and that's down...

[upside_umop]

Wow thats handy information. What about from 2002 to 2012?

What about over the last 100 years?

[hal]

What about over the last 100 years?

I guess that is the point.

It is easy to be selective. I have a feeling though that this thread was only started in the the period I have mentioned and of course the Gold price has risen wonderfully in this time period.

[corran]

I didn't see anywhere that it said $80 trillion in debt JB?

maybe you need to look a little deeper than just that video. Liabilities do not just include national debt. What about medicare, social security, food stamps? When you consider the total (including unfunded) liabilities that the US has, you'll see a fair bit more than $16 trillion.



Is gold money? No - you can't go and use it in general expenditure, can you?
It is true that often you can't use gold directly in general expenditure... but defining money only as something you can use directly in 'general expenditure' is a very narrow definition. By that definition money is restricted to the medium of exchange (currency) that is legal tender in the country you're in. What about being a store of value and a unit of account? Gold definitely meets those criteria. And there are more and more places that are accepting gold in exchange for goods or services. My gold coins definitely have way more chance of buying me stuff over here than the NZ dollars I've got lying around!


What other central banks hold gold in developed countries? 5/8 th's of sweet f.a.

Well lets see... here's a few for you:
Germany: 3400 tonnes
Italy: 2450 tonnes
France: 2435 tonnes
Switzerland: 1000 tonnes

You can find the full list of the internet easy enough if you look... seems a bit more than 5/8 of f.a. to me!

[elZorro]

Most of it is automated now, so it makes sense to have the capital investment close to the market. I don't want to own a car welded by an untrained indian.

I just think JB's constant scare mongering of the USA is a little weak.

One plant I know about was built in India precisely because it was closer to the developing (China/Asia) market for a large industrial-scale set of equipment. For 2-3 years the precise plans for how to build some of this gear were documented in NZ by staff of an international company, some of the robotic plant here was dismantled and sent over, and the factory engineering staff here will mostly be unemployed by Christmas. Cheap labour was only part of the story, their competitors are doing the same.

[Skol]

What about over the last 100 years?

I can oblige there. Since 1801, gold has been the worst investment on earth - bar none.

To take an extreme example [of price volatility], while dollar invested in bonds in 1801 would be worth nearly a thousand dollars by 1998, a dollar invested in stocks that same year would be worth more than half a million dollars. All this is in real terms, taking inflation into account. Meanwhile, a dollar invested in gold in 1801 would by 1998 be worth just 78 cents.


Which goes to show that you better take your profits while you're ahead corran.

[skid]

How about some proof! A goldbug fantasy.
Its a fact of life that there are large institutions that are going short or long on gold.
Its a part of the more speculative side of buying and selling gold[at least on paper]
those that are shorting are betting that the price is going to go down.
Thats what you would be doing Skol,if you were actively speculating on your argument.You are basically entering in to an agreement to buy gold at some future date at what you hope will be a lower price than what it is now-you then pocket the profits.
Of course if the price goes up,then you are caught out and have to settle the bill-that means you then have to buy gold at that time to settle.This in term adds to the rise in price etc.
Apparently the latest rise caught alot of these specs out and hence they got fleeced.
Disc. holding some gold but not for speculative purposes [a % for insurance-but i suppose thats another argument]

[skid]

With manufacturing going back to the US, the competitive advantage of cheap energy, and the status of world reserve currency...the USA are fine![/QUOTE]

Do you really think the US economy is fine? They have tremendous debt.
They are keeping their heads above water because China is still financing their debt[Buying treasury bonds] If they stop[or have to stop because of a slowdown]it will not be pretty.{Europe is Chinas biggest trading partner]

[JBmurc]

I watched that video - what a joke. Why on earth does he think that gold has a linear relationship to the monetary base? Gold is worth as much as it costs to mine out and for someone to spend the time and opportunity cost to lock it away. To me, that would be 0. But to the other fools, it's currently $2000 nzd.

Is gold money? No - you can't go and use it in general expenditure, can you? The Fed still holds it's gold at historical cost so obviously doesn't care about it too much.

What other central banks hold gold in developed countries? 5/8 th's of sweet f.a.

JB, you talk of these gold miners making fat profits? You mean, your ARV, HLX, NAV, PXG to name a few? These have only been going one way and that's down...

ARV,HLX,PXG are all explorers ...NAV costs got out of control and was glad to have sold out before they crashed long ago .....when I'm talking about producers making a mint I'm talking about PGI, TRY ,CVR (I hold all) these guys like many producers are making some very large profits at current gold prices

[JBmurc]

With manufacturing going back to the US, the competitive advantage of cheap energy, and the status of world reserve currency...the USA are fine!

Do you really think the US economy is fine? They have tremendous debt.
They are keeping their heads above water because China is still financing their debt[Buying treasury bonds] If they stop[or have to stop because of a slowdown]it will not be pretty.{Europe is Chinas biggest trading partner][/QUOTE]

I'm pretty sure the chinese have scaled back the buying of US debt ...something like 40% of the debt is held by the FED

[Skol]

Do you really think the US economy is fine? They have tremendous debt.
They are keeping their heads above water because China is still financing their debt[Buying treasury bonds] If they stop[or have to stop because of a slowdown]it will not be pretty.{Europe is Chinas biggest trading partner]


JB,

You're the boy crying wolf for years.

How about a time when the USD is 'confetti', the US economy implodes and hyperinflation ravages the Earth.

How long?

[elZorro]

The latest in a long line of articles about QE3, which could happen any old day, and will probably occur before the elections. This guy includes gold in his investment choices. Very wise..

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/fii-view/qe3-might-be-necessary-us-economy-slowing-down-finaport_726496.html

Back up the truck - right Skol?

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/04.11/images/larger-truck.jpg

[JBmurc]

It's never be if but when...... create more money,, got to pay the bills..... wish i had a endless supply of free money...0% interest rate

[denpal]

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jim-willie/outline-on-collapse-end-game

Utter corruption throughout the banker world. Jim Willie is on to it.

[JBmurc]

Most of it is automated now, so it makes sense to have the capital investment close to the market. I don't want to own a car welded by an untrained indian.

I just think JB's constant scare mongering of the USA is a little weak.


Right sorry to scare you ....fact is with gap of 1+ trillion per ann of overspending is a fact a target of 24+ trillion in US debt by 2020 is the likely outcome ... (wish the bank would forget about my debt) now at some time in the future the US will increase rates from 0% to combat inflation....it's only a matter of time.. has the powers that be learnt nothing from the GFC doesn't look like it...

World of debt---hope the pictures don't scare you to much sky has a 24/7 cartoon channel
http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/world_debt/world_debt.html

[Skol]

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jim-willie/outline-on-collapse-end-game

Utter corruption throughout the banker world. Jim Willie is on to it.

Jim Willie LOL.

This idiot is like JB, crying wolf for years, chaos, crashes, etc. that haven't eventuated. i suppose he's made some money out of it though, milking the gullible goldbugs.

[elZorro]

Jim Willie LOL.

This idiot is like JB, crying wolf for years, chaos, crashes, etc. that haven't eventuated. i suppose he's made some money out of it though, milking the gullible goldbugs.

There's probably not one shred of truthfulness in that article.... or is there??

US employment data wasn't as good as hoped for yesterday, US will use less oil for the second year in a row, dampening oil prices, so you're sort of right about that one Skol. US$ ramped up, but this has to be short term if Jim Willie is right, and the Chinese are salting away gold bars.

[JBmurc]

Jim Willie LOL.

This idiot is like JB, crying wolf for years, chaos, crashes, etc. that haven't eventuated. i suppose he's made some money out of it though, milking the gullible goldbugs.

And you've been bleating on about gold's demise for years,,yet it's still holds it higher value

[Skol]

And you've been bleating on about gold's demise for years,,yet it's still holds it higher value

Gold and silver are declining when the goldbugs tell us that they should be going up. The usual stuff, manipulation, paper, printing, banksters, yadda, yadda, yadda, but for nearly 1 year gold's going south.

[elZorro]

Changes afoot for the Basel status of gold.

http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=orkbnrcab&v=001WB-nvaGMG3_PrMHvmH1NPUwo-ViKLOVYJlutwBLggOHw9wpOf-yoD6tyGNfhguuTjCSqNlk5D6gL1rttWnHUjNCeq-MDM8Fd96qz8NC9O8Q%3D

[Aaron]

Changes afoot for the Basel status of gold.

http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=orkbnrcab&v=001WB-nvaGMG3_PrMHvmH1NPUwo-ViKLOVYJlutwBLggOHw9wpOf-yoD6tyGNfhguuTjCSqNlk5D6gL1rttWnHUjNCeq-MDM8Fd96qz8NC9O8Q%3D

I guess that makes gold money and more valuable if/when the changes to its status go through. Although I won't pretend to understand what it all means exactly especially between Teir 1,2 & 3 but banks might be more inclined to hold it as a reserve if countries around the world are trying to devlaue their currencies to gain export competitiveness.
Sorry Skol I agree that gold generates no income but as money, restrictions on the supply of gold would mean it should hold its value against the $US, Euro etc. especially if they are printing more. Although that said as a commodity the high prices must have set off a lot more digging and exploration. Is there anyway to guess the increase in supply of gold over the last few years. As a greek person would I be happier holding Euros that could turn into Drachmas overnight or gold? Still speculative but to me doesn't seem far off holding any other currency like $US or Euro.

[elZorro]

I agree with your points Aaron. Here's something from Jeremy at Ino.com


From a technical perspective, (see chart) the August Gold is in a range between $1530 and $1640. You will notice that prices tested last Decembers low three separate times in the month of May before hitting the $1640 high, and has been very choppy since then. The low prices from Friday and today seem to have targeted the Fibonacci 2/3rds retracement, but fail to convince me of a directional play yet.

I believe that this week’s trade in the Gold market will depend mostly on how the earnings are reported in the US. After seeing how much the jobs number affected Gold on Friday, I have to believe that the same rules apply this week. As mentioned earlier, the FED is still deciding whether or not to ease again. As backwards as this may sound, a string of disappointing earnings may tempt traders to try to get ahead of the FED and begin buying markets like Gold that would be favored by a weaker US Dollar. In today’s trade, the Dollar is attempting to test the June high, and the Euro is trying to hold the June low. If these two markets stay tamed, we should expect a choppy Gold trade as well. I believe that Gold traders will continue to hold prices in this $100 range until the FED decides whether to stimulate again with another round of easing. This week should then provide both day and swing traders with decent opportunities to scalp.


I'm not a swing-trade person, but I am interested in hearing about QE3. Still a lot of people half expecting this to occur soon. It will have an immediate effect on the gold price if the FED even obliquely mention it.

Overnight 10th July, Gold dropped in 6 hours to US$1566/oz, but this article anticipated that.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/10/markets-precious-idUSL3E8IA08520120710

Normally a flight to gold occurs a day or two after a flight to the US$.

[Skol]

EZ,

If QE3 is around the corner why is gold heading south?

Why does the flight to the USD continue?

Why is silver close to its lowest level for months?

Why are gold and silver indices plunging?

[elZorro]

If I had some spare cash I'd be buying gold shares and even gold, on these dips. It doesn't surprise me that gold has not crashed, it's just stuck and the wheels are spinning, anytime soon the race to the top should be on again.

http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/07/officials-warn-of-looming-crisis-for-economy/

Buffett states the obvious at last, but he's in the Obama camp too, and they're keeping the lid on it until the elections at least.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48159304

[elZorro]

The Moneychanger with an amusing item for today, on gold/silver. Best read after a glass of wine, he's an acquired taste perhaps.

http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/2012/07/gold-price-will-not-drop-to-lower-lows.html

He's in the market selling coins, so his comments on gold demand have to be accurate.


Success does not consist in never making mistakes but in never making the same one a second time.

~ George Bernard Shaw

[airedale]

Here is a chart which suggests that the POG has tuned up. Waiting for it to get above $1600 reminds me of the push to get above $1,000 a couple of years ago.

http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/07/chart-of-the-week-gold-6/

And Franklin Sanders has a very droll style of writing.

[STRAT]

6 months going sideways as long as it stays above the 1525-1530 mark (January low) has got to be better than the previous 6 months.

Loss since the August 2011 high. 15%. Not so bad compared to many stocks, especially Gold stocks. Got to be a bargain somewhere amongst that lot. Surely?

[STRAT]

Here is a chart which suggests that the POG has tuned up. .Thats a brave call if it is agenda free. Mind you it is Futures which are a figment of someones imagination :lol:

[elZorro]

6 months going sideways as long as it stays above the 1525-1530 mark (January low) has got to be better than the previous 6 months.

Loss since the August 2011 high. 15%. Not so bad compared to many stocks, especially Gold stocks. Got to be a bargain somewhere amongst that lot. Surely?

I have to admit GEL and OGC are only a HOLD at the moment, IMHO. But a rising gold price will bring all goldies along with it, and I wouldn't mind another ramp like 2009-2010.

[Skol]

Looks like another down day for the XGD.

Dow, S&P up, but HUI down 1.03%, GDX down 1.04%, XAU down 1.04% etc. etc.

[JBmurc]

“We’re in a very unfortunate position to be here,” Richard Duncan, author of The New Depression, warned on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Monday.

“When we broke the link between money and Gold, this removed all constraints on credit creation. This Explosion Of Credit created the world we live in, but it now seems that credit cannot expand any further because the private sector is incapable of repaying the debt it has already, and if credit begins to contract, there’s a very real danger that we will collapse into a new Great Depression,” he argued.



http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000103083

[Hoop]

Here is a chart which suggests that the POG has tuned up. Waiting for it to get above $1600 reminds me of the push to get above $1,000 a couple of years ago.


Agree with Strat....based on that chart it is a big call..Below is a longer term chart which shows the part of the story that Sangers Chart omitted to tell you.
The Chart below is based on US$ and is a different species to Strats A$ chart


Note on the Chart, that the Gold price is running out of wiggle room within the Descending Triangle formation.

In Statistical analysis the breakout is downwards 64% of the time and is at it's strongest breakout momentum around the 80-85%area towards the triangle's apex which is about now.
Trade on the breakout ...The breakout is especially reliable if it is upwards.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Gold16072012.png

[JBmurc]

Kitco News) - The amount of new gold discovered has not kept up with the current pace of mine output, as the easy-to-reach gold deposits are being depleted, said a mining consultancy group on Tuesday.
From 1997-2011, there have been 99 discoveries of gold deposits containing at least 2 million ounces of the metal, totaling 743 million ounces of gold in reserves, resources and past production as of the end of 2011, said the Metals Economics Group in a research report.
“Assuming a 75% resource-conversion rate and a 90% recovery rate during production, these 99 discoveries could potentially replace only 56% of the estimated gold mined during the same period, if they are economical to mine,” they said in their report,

“Strategies for Gold Reserves Replacement: The Costs of Finding and Acquiring Gold.”
The challenge for producers is “not that there is no gold left, but that all the ‘easy’ gold has been found,” they said.

The total amount of gold in reserves and resources at development-stage projects on a global scale roughly matches current mine production. “However, with increasing risk of political, regulatory, and tax instability in many resource-rich nations, declining grades, rising costs, and dramatically longer development times, the amount of gold available for production in the near term is likely far less than has been found,” they said.

[STRAT]

Agree with Strat....based on that chart it is a big call..Below is a longer term chart which shows the part of the story that Sangers Chart omitted to tell you.
The Chart below is based on US$ and is a different species to Strats A$ chart


Note on the Chart, that the Gold price is running out of wiggle room within the Descending Triangle formation.

In Statistical analysis the breakout is downwards 64% of the time and is at it's strongest breakout momentum around the 80-85%area towards the triangle's apex which is about now.
Trade on the breakout ...The breakout is especially reliable if it is upwards.

Thanks for that chart Hoop.

As to trading on a breakout. Not sure Id want to be buying Aussie Gold stocks based on a breakout in US dollars. US dollars being what they are.

[elZorro]

“We’re in a very unfortunate position to be here,” Richard Duncan, author of The New Depression, warned on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Monday.

“When we broke the link between money and Gold, this removed all constraints on credit creation. This Explosion Of Credit created the world we live in, but it now seems that credit cannot expand any further because the private sector is incapable of repaying the debt it has already, and if credit begins to contract, there’s a very real danger that we will collapse into a new Great Depression,” he argued.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000103083

The private sector is not generally doing well enough to service debt. In the race to the bottom (sharper prices, outsourcing) there is slender profit on average (but not for Apple, who have marked their products up). Of course if we all had access to cheap energy, many goods and services would be cheaper to provide, and the public would have more spare cash for discretionary purchases. Businesses would also be more interested in energy intensive manufacturing plants and processes, anywhere in the world, close to markets.

I still think that major developments in the energy field promising cheaper and sustainable energy worldwide might be the only thing that will pull the world out of this credit mess. I can't see anything dramatic popping up at the moment, and energy system changes take years.

It's frustrating when we're surrounded by energy: e=mc2, where c is a very big number.

Great gold chart thanks Hoop, I would like to be part of the 36% hope that US$gold breaks upward.

[Skol]

My bet is that gold will break out downwards. At the tip of the triangle it will be 1 year since gold peaked with a classic double top. Investor psychology might be to get out.

[CAM]

I am on the up side... but hey who really knows...

poor Spanish bond auction overnight reignited fears about the European debt crisis and weakened the euro.
US existing home sales fell unexpectedly (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-19/sales-of-existing-u-s-homes-unexpectedly-decreased-in-june.html),
the Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey of manufacturing activity fell for the third month running (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-19/manufacturing-in-the-philadelphia-fed-region-cooled-in-april.html),
US consumer confidence fell (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-19/americans-hold-dimmest-view-on-economic-outlook-since-january.html),
jobless claims rose (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-19/jobless-claims-in-u-s-rise-as-auto-plant-layoff-effects-ease.html)

However, the Dow rose 0.3% as, perversely, more signs of bad economic news encouraged stock investors to believe the US Federal Reserve will have enough evidence to go ahead with a third round of quantitative easing (QE III) as early as August 1

the oil price rose sharply overnight as tensions mounted in the Middle East. Governments are now planning for the collapse of the regime in Syria and Israel blamed Iran and Hezbollah for a deadly attack in Bulgaria on Israeli tourists

[elZorro]

I am on the up side... but hey who really knows...

poor Spanish bond auction overnight reignited fears about the European debt crisis and weakened the euro.
US existing home sales fell unexpectedly (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-19/sales-of-existing-u-s-homes-unexpectedly-decreased-in-june.html),
the Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey of manufacturing activity fell for the third month running (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-19/manufacturing-in-the-philadelphia-fed-region-cooled-in-april.html),
US consumer confidence fell (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-19/americans-hold-dimmest-view-on-economic-outlook-since-january.html),
jobless claims rose (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-19/jobless-claims-in-u-s-rise-as-auto-plant-layoff-effects-ease.html)

However, the Dow rose 0.3% as, perversely, more signs of bad economic news encouraged stock investors to believe the US Federal Reserve will have enough evidence to go ahead with a third round of quantitative easing (QE III) as early as August 1

the oil price rose sharply overnight as tensions mounted in the Middle East. Governments are now planning for the collapse of the regime in Syria and Israel blamed Iran and Hezbollah for a deadly attack in Bulgaria on Israeli tourists

Thanks for the news review CAM. Doesn't look too good all put together.

Here's one blog about 1st August QE3. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/07/august-1st-qe3-departure-date.html

And another for September. Both before the US elections.
http://www.businessinsider.com/bofa-qe3-september-fomc-2012-7

Bets for QE3 are bracketing August/Sept, before the elections, or into early 2013 if things go feral in Europe.