View Full Version : Gold
HUI vs GLD -25%
XAU vs GLD -30%
GDX vs GLD -27%
XGD vs GLD -38%
Average of these indexes vs GLD for the last 1 year is -30%.
If gold is mispriced it should be $1217.
Maybe even a lot less because gold mining companies are geared up.
elZorro
28-01-2012, 12:17 PM
HUI vs GLD -25%XAU vs GLD -30%GDX vs GLD -27%XGD vs GLD -38%Average of these indexes vs GLD for the last 1 year is -30%.If gold is mispriced it should be $1217.Maybe even a lot less because gold mining companies are geared up.The companies themselves have geared up because they can see the profits well in advance, in many cases mining material they'd have left alone if the gold price was lower. Caterpillar are doing well, other companies supplying the mining sector with new equipment and repair parts recovering strongly also, so the writing is on the wall, there should be another boom about to start in goldie stocks. Keep an eye on shareprices relative to US$ gold price (http://www.infomine.com/ChartsAndData/ChartBuilder.aspx?gf=110575.USD.oz|112355.CAD.&df=20100514&dt=20100814), and the "Gold buys the DOW" charts. These will tell a fair bit of the story.
Too bad if the shares are right, those krugers are gonna be worth at least $500 less each.
That's the way it worked in 2008 when the price of oil crashed, oil shares were signalling way in advance that there was a mispricing.
Too bad if the shares are right, those krugers are gonna be worth at least $500 less each.
That's the way it worked in 2008 when the price of oil crashed, oil shares were signalling way in advance that there was a mispricing.
Sounds like you are clutching at straws to me. .
Sounds like you are clutching at straws to me. .
Really?
Compare a 5 year chart of ^XOI (NYSE Oil & Gas Index) and USO (price of oil delivered to Cushing) and you'll see that the shares were signalling well before 2008 that something was badly amiss, which it was. The sheeple kept piling into oil.
Oil crashed 78%.
JBmurc
28-01-2012, 02:39 PM
I really think 2012 will be good for many gold/silver shares most likely later on when gold break $2000oz USD ...the major investment funds will soon switch from the paper gold ETF's to the large cap gold producers to not miss-out on the re-rating that must happen with so many of this Producers massive growth of EBIT into turn producing good yeilds...this move at the top will filter down to the smaller producers from more M&A in the sector ...which must be coming up soon when some explorers have muti million oz resources valued at only $17-$18per oz JORC(PXG) when back in the last worldwide M&A frenzy of 03-04 many large caps would be more than happy to pay near the gold price of the time to own good gold reserves
-It's not a matter of If the sector will move but when...an I for one won't be sitting on the sidelines scared of taking the risk ....I'm in boots an all
The GDX gold index tracked the gold price until May 2011 and is now 27% behind gold.
denpal
28-01-2012, 03:05 PM
The GDX gold index tracked the gold price until May 2011 and is now 27% behind gold.
What are you going to say when gold hits $2100 in a few months.........
What are you going to say when gold hits $2100 in a few months.........
Why will it hit $2100? It's a sure thing right, you just can't go wrong. LOL
Here's another one the CBOE Gold Index, GOX, now 30% behind gold, this also tracked gold until May 2011.
elZorro
28-01-2012, 05:09 PM
You're way out Denpal, the Moneychanger (http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/) reckons it could get to $2600 this year!It has been a spectacular week for anyone holding gold, silver, or related shares. In a way it's been predictable, as gold moved back to its trend lines on a longer term basis. It overshot a while back, but it's keen to get moving again. I wonder if this means that oil is going up to match it. (Looks like infomine compares ounces with ounces, the normal ratio is about 15, or number of barrels of crude bought with an ounce of gold).
^GOX vs GLD
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=1y&s=%5EGOX&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=gld
Convinced?
EZ, it's been a good week for lots of people. A number of sectors have done well this week.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5y&s=%5EXOI&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=uso
Here is the ^XOI and USO before oil crashed in 2008. You can see that before '08 the ^XOI moderated while the sheeple kept buying oil with the usual result in July '08.
denpal
28-01-2012, 07:55 PM
Why will it hit $2100? It's a sure thing right, you just can't go wrong. LOL
Here's another one the CBOE Gold Index, GOX, now 30% behind gold, this also tracked gold until May 2011.
Skol, this thread is about GOLD not stocks.
Skol, this thread is about GOLD not stocks.
Gold, gold stocks, same thing isn't it?
denpal
28-01-2012, 09:51 PM
Gold, gold stocks, same thing isn't it?
Obviously not, as you yourself have just been pointing out........gold is gold, gold stocks are not gold, they are shares in companies with all the risks that go with that.
If you look back through the last 3000 posts you will find endless references to gold shares, it's one and the same. And if you check the peak oil thread you'll find I pointed out the same anomalies nearly 4 years ago between oil and oil shares.
The thread which I started, says 'gold', it does not say 'physical gold', anyone with an interest in any kind of gold may contribute.
It's absurd to distinguish between the two.
I think most would agree that the economy is broken and until it gets fixed gold will be a good investment,[or at least insurance]
At some stage[after all the pain]things will get back on a more stable footing and gold will then swing in the opposite direction.
There are lots of variables to cause fluctuations but IMHO,thats the basic scenario[which I wish was not the case]
elZorro
29-01-2012, 10:07 AM
Here's an article I quickly found on the web, seems to cover this argument well. However it classes my main investments as fairly risky (speculation). That's fair enough, I'm looking for a multi-bagger.
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/precious-metals-and-gems/a-beginners-guide-to-investing-in-gold
Investing in gold: conclusionAs we have seen, there are major differences in the various motivations for buying gold and ways to buy gold – from trading and speculating to investing and saving.
Holding precious metals in a portfolio can provide distinct benefits in the form of speculative gains, investment gains, hedging against macroeconomic and geopolitical risk and / or wealth preservation. Traditional asset allocation theory, as represented by the investment pyramid, advocates higher risk speculations at the top, with lower risk assets at the bottom. Commodity futures contracts, options and exploration junior mining companies should be placed at the top of the pyramid, while cash equivalents and fully allocated or taken delivery of physical bullion should form the foundation or base.
Experienced and knowledgeable investors have long known that gold and gold related investments can be solid investment choices. Gold is stable in times of global geopolitical instability and when there is economic uncertainty, recessions and depressions. It is important that investors look at their portfolios holistically. Used correctly, gold and gold related investments can be highly effective components of a properly diversified investment portfolio.
• This article was written by Mark O'Byrne, executive director of international bullion dealer GoldCore (http://goldcore.com/). GoldCore has an international media profile (CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, BBC, FT, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, Associated Press, Reuters etc.) and takes part in the Reuters Precious Metals Poll and the Bloomberg Gold Survey.
You're way out Denpal, the Moneychanger (http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/) reckons it could get to $2600 this year!
You're expecting gold to increase by 62% this year?
It's only done that once before in recent history and that was 1979, when the herd sniffed instant riches and got subsequently wiped out a few months later.
elZorro
29-01-2012, 09:02 PM
You're expecting gold to increase by 62% this year?
It's only done that once before in recent history and that was 1979, when the herd sniffed instant riches and got subsequently wiped out a few months later.
No harm in aiming high is there? Anyway, I'm just a natural-born fool from Waikato, Skol, and certainly buying some gold bars would keep it simple.
The lastest Equedia Weekly included this:
It's not a matter of will gold go up, it's a matter of how high.
GoldmanSachs just released a report calling gold a low-risk, high-return asset and predicts it will rise to $1940 this year. Morgan Stanley predicts a price of $2,175 a year from now. UBS calls for $2050 within 12 months. And Citigroup is calling for $2400. While these numbers don't seem far off, estimates from big banks have proven many times over to be conservative in past years. I see gold going much higher than $2000 within 12 months and stick with my prediction that gold will make its strongest gains this year.
Here's a look at the article by a Citigroup analyst (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-jumps-citi-says-gold-sell-over-reiterates-2400-target). US$ gold at $1535 or below is the indicator of a correction to this prediction, it didn't happen. They also used the Gold/Dow ratio chart to show that gold is still increasing in value relative to the DOW, has corrected, but is now on form to move solidly upwards. Stocks should move upwards by nearly the same amount though, partly because the US$ will reduce in value. Net result, the Gold/Dow ratio will continue a trend upwards (Dow/Gold will trend down).
Everybody's predicting gold can only go higher, you can't miss.
What's that mean to the trained mind EZ?
A contrarian warning?
The herd is usually wrong.
In Nov 2008, Peter Schiff, one of the 'experts' predicted hyperinflation, destruction of the USD and gold $5000.
Hahhaaha, I love checking up on the 'experts' predictions, what a laugh.
Silverlight
30-01-2012, 01:02 PM
Thread started 31/12/2009 with the prediction:
we've seen the highs for the next few years.
Gold price 31/12/2009 was 1096 USD, today 1732 USD, a return of 58%.
The bubble risk is getting closer Skol, however this still has a few years to go, and you have missed some nice gains, versus your agriculture play, AAC, which has fallen from 1.49 to 1.39 over this time, it doesn't pay dividends either ;)
I know which holding I would prefer in my portfolio at a 5 or 10% weight :)
I've missed out sure, but had money in the bank which hasn't been a bad return when you think about it over the last few years while everything else has gone pear shaped.
The big problem with gold is this:
http://thevictoryreport.org/2011/04/06/1980-gold-bubble-charts/
Everyone rushes for the exit at the same time, not many get out before the theatre burns down.
I doubt the 'investors' in gold shares would agree with you, the gold indexes down between 25% and 38%.
airedale
30-01-2012, 01:30 PM
Everybody's predicting gold can only go higher, you can't miss.
What's that mean to the trained mind EZ?
A contrarian warning?
The herd is usually wrong.
In Nov 2008, Peter Schiff, one of the 'experts' predicted hyperinflation, destruction of the USD and gold $5000.
Hahhaaha, I love checking up on the 'experts' predictions, what a laugh.
Skol, destruction of the US$ is most certainly happening every time the printing presses run with QE 1,2,and soon 3.
The rest will follow in due course. $5000 who knows when, but $2,000 this year is my humble guesstimate.
Skol, destruction of the US$ is most certainly happening every time the printing presses run with QE 1,2,and soon 3.
The rest will follow in due course. $5000 who knows when, but $2,000 this year is my humble guesstimate.
It's a fallacy that the 'printing presses run' and that Bernanke prints money.
The Treasury prints money, not the Fed.
From The Telegraph;
Patrick Connolly, an adviser at AWD Chase de Vere, said: "We are incredibly wary of any asset class that has risen so much in value. It is a mistake to think that any investment will keep going up indefinitely, and, when the price of gold does fall, it could be far and fast."
As he pointed out, when gold prices tumbled in 1980 – after a decade of strong gains – prices fell by 65pc in less than two and a half years. More worryingly, it then took a further 28 years for prices to regain their 1980 peak, and this is without taking inflation into account.
"Those who believe gold is a safe haven could be in for a nasty shock," Mr Connolly said. "Gold hasn't always proven itself to be a secure asset and its value has suffered from high levels of volatility, resulting in investors making or losing large amounts of money over some very short periods
Silverlight
30-01-2012, 04:12 PM
I've missed out sure, but had money in the bank which hasn't been a bad return when you think about it over the last few years while everything else has gone pear shaped.
The big problem with gold is this:
http://thevictoryreport.org/2011/04/06/1980-gold-bubble-charts/
Everyone rushes for the exit at the same time, not many get out before the theatre burns down.
I doubt the 'investors' in gold shares would agree with you, the gold indexes down between 25% and 38%.
What are you talking about? On the same time scale 30/12/2009 to today:
GDX index up 24%
HUI index up 28%
XAU index up 20%
I think maybe your charts are upside down... :confused:
What are you talking about? On the same time scale 30/12/2009 to today:
GDX index up 24%
HUI index up 28%
XAU index up 20%
I think maybe your charts are upside down... :confused:
RELATIVE to gold.
HUI vs Gld last 1 year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=1y&s=%5EHUI&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=gld
The XGD is down over 5% for 1 year, but down 37% RELATIVE to GLD.
lakedaemonian
31-01-2012, 11:23 PM
Everybody's predicting gold can only go higher, you can't miss.
What's that mean to the trained mind EZ?
A contrarian warning?
The herd is usually wrong.
In Nov 2008, Peter Schiff, one of the 'experts' predicted hyperinflation, destruction of the USD and gold $5000.
Hahhaaha, I love checking up on the 'experts' predictions, what a laugh.
You should check with one expert: specifically, Eric Janszen and his documented analysis and predictions since 1999.
Then get back to us.
I challenge you to find anyone with a documented investment performance over a decade that matches or exceeds his.
His portfolio has been T bills and Gold(30%). It now includes private equity.
He also called silver 48 hours before the crash just under a year ago.
Eric is a gold bull because, like democracy, it is the least bad option for the foreseeable future.
Yeah, I've had a look at Eric, but he's a bit cagey about his predictions, I would be too.
He predicted the DOW would be 5000 which of course hasn't happened and he says gold will top out at $2500 to $5000.
So do lot of people, I'm predicting gold will be $2500, but not sure which decade or century.
He likes to sell books.
elZorro
03-02-2012, 08:05 AM
From NZResources today:
Gold moves back into vogueSimon Hartley — 3 February 2012
Gold is back in vogue with investors, having retraced 10% in value on the spot global market in the past month and prompting forecasts it could go beyond $US2000/oz ($NZ2,404.60/oz) this year.
Spot market gold has risen from $US1,564 to $US1,781/oz in recent weeks, a 13.8% gain, while on Wednesday it traded up slightly by 0.3%, starting the day around $US1,736/oz.
However, for New Zealand investors the weakening US dollar and strengthening Kiwi dollar are eroding gains on the rising price.
Sentiment for gold at the end of January compared starkly with late-December, when prices dropped by more than 10% in their biggest monthly fall, since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in an investor "dash for cash." Reuters reported.
A $US400/oz price drop from last September's record $US1,920.30/oz had left investors questioning whether gold had ended an 11-year rally.
Forsyth Barr broker Suzanne Kinnaird said fundamental drivers for the first half of 2012 pointed to a firm gold demand, despite the absence of seasonal demand from India.
"The gold price has recovered from the lows at the end of 2011, with prices snapping back.
"Gold has reached levels consistent with its long-term uptrend path since late-2008," Ms Kinnaird said.
Craigs Investment Partners broker Peter McIntyre said several factors had aligned to boost gold's gains; including a weakened US dollar, some buying support from Asian investors and it having been "over-sold," when it slid below $US1,600/oz several weeks ago.
"We expect gold prices will recover given negative real interest rates, central bank diversification, a resumption in US dollar weakness and the ongoing risks to the European financial system," he said.
While the price appreciation beyond 10% looked attractive, the Kiwi exchange rate with the Greenback had during that period risen by about 6%, from US77.85c to US82.57c.
McInture said the price levels look good in $US terms, but turn quite sickly when seen in $NZ terms. Global uncertainty was also making equities investment less attractive and with US Treasury bonds offering "dismal" interest rates, more investors were turning to gold.
Suzanne Kinnaird said the technical view was that the upward trend in gold "should remain intact", and Forsyth Barr was targeting a price move above $US2,000/oz in 2012, with McIntyre similarly predicting a rise to $US2,000/oz during July to September, before weakening in the fourth quarter.
Kinnard said the three-month gold forecast stood at $US1,800/oz and the 12-month forecast at $US2,200/oz, while Peter McIntyre estimated the gold average for calendar 2012 would be $US1,825/oz and, for 2013, an average of $US2,000/oz.
*Simon Hartley is senior business reporter for the Otago Daily Times.
airedale
03-02-2012, 09:25 AM
Good morning, all, the only prediction that I will make today is that Skol will soon be using the "Parabolic" word.:).....again
Good morning, all, the only prediction that I will make today is that Skol will soon be using the "Parabolic" word.:).....again
No, not that word, I'm expecting someone soon to use another buzzword that was published by the Bank of Montreal a couple of days before silver crashed last year.
'New paradigm'.
When you hear those words, it's the death knell.
STRAT
03-02-2012, 10:35 AM
No, not that word, I'm expecting someone soon to use another buzzword that was published by the Bank of Montreal a couple of days before silver crashed last year.
'New paradigm'.
When you hear those words, it's the death knell.lol.
.................. aaaaaah Yup.
Chart looks OK though :eek2:
Note the divergence prier to the recent up swing
Is anyone else getting the gut feeling that the $US as the default currency for gold and oil is like a leaky dam?
How long before even the mighty US military cant stop countries from abandoning the dollar and trading in other currencies-or gold for that matter.
Pumice
03-02-2012, 11:17 AM
Is anyone else getting the gut feeling that the $US as the default currency for gold and oil is like a leaky dam?
How long before even the mighty US military cant stop countries from abandoning the dollar and trading in other currencies-or gold for that matter.
Nope
Damn it, need 10 characters to post
Is anyone else getting the gut feeling that the $US as the default currency for gold and oil is like a leaky dam?
How long before even the mighty US military cant stop countries from abandoning the dollar and trading in other currencies-or gold for that matter.
LOL.
You're saying that the US military is engaged in operations to prevent the world using other currencies.
I've heard lots of wacko conspiracy theories from the goldbugs but that's one of dumbest.
I always thought one the best though was when DSK was arrested in the USA ostensibly to gag him because he was gonna spill the beans on gold manipulation.
Hahaha
Keep them coming guys, I should write a book about it.
LOL.
You're saying that the US military is engaged in operations to prevent the world using other currencies.
I've heard lots of wacko conspiracy theories from the goldbugs but that's one of dumbest.
I always thought one the best though was when DSK was arrested in the USA ostensibly to gag him because he was gonna spill the beans on gold manipulation.
Hahaha
Keep them coming guys, I should write a book about it.
Maybe you could write a book about Gold. It would be a very interesting read.
Maybe you could write a book about Gold. It would be a very interesting read.
Yeah, a very big chapter on the endless loony conspiracy theories, that goldbugs won't admit they're wrong even when proven wrong like the DSK gold manipulation nonsense.
DSK'a been out of jail for months and no one's been fingered for manipulation.
It's amazing how gullible people are.
I've had dinner with 2 people in the last 3 days with tales of woe. One lost the lot in angora goats and the other committed $50,000 after a cold call from a broker. The deal went pear-shaped and now can't get his money until 2020.
elZorro
03-02-2012, 01:38 PM
Yeah, a very big chapter on the endless loony conspiracy theories, that goldbugs won't admit they're wrong even when proven wrong like the DSK gold manipulation nonsense.
DSK'a been out of jail for months and no one's been fingered for manipulation.
It's amazing how gullible people are.
I've had dinner with 2 people in the last 3 days with tales of woe. One lost the lot in angora goats and the other committed $50,000 after a cold call from a broker. The deal went pear-shaped and now can't get his money until 2020.
Surely Skol, the last two cases are worse than buying gold or gold shares? Money locked up for 8 years, or a complete loss? This book you're going to write - by the time it's finished we might be in a new paradigm, maybe gold will have "taken over" fiat currencies, or the bubble might have burst. I reckon we'll still be in big trouble, thinking about how much the economies of the world need to back off, to match the higher cost of oil or energy. If that's right, gold will be up there too. You need to hope for some new, cheaper energy sources.
denpal
03-02-2012, 08:15 PM
LOL.
You're saying that the US military is engaged in operations to prevent the world using other currencies.
I've heard lots of wacko conspiracy theories from the goldbugs but that's one of dumbest.
I always thought one the best though was when DSK was arrested in the USA ostensibly to gag him because he was gonna spill the beans on gold manipulation.
Hahaha
Keep them coming guys, I should write a book about it.
Maybe you need to watch RT News for a change.........The US has benefited from free money for far too long by way of petrodollars. In reality they are a bankrupt country, oh sorry, the "land of the free and brave??" give me a break, more like an Orwellian prison farm run by white collar criminals. I heard savvy US citizens are renouncing their citizenship and getting COMMUNIST CHINESE passports...........I guess cronyist communism is better than criminal fascism?
stevo1
03-02-2012, 09:15 PM
LOL.
You're saying that the US military is engaged in operations to prevent the world using other currencies.
I've heard lots of wacko conspiracy theories from the goldbugs but that's one of dumbest.
I always thought one the best though was when DSK was arrested in the USA ostensibly to gag him because he was gonna spill the beans on gold manipulation.
Hahaha
Keep them coming guys, I should write a book about it.
skol isn't the military in effect the enforcement arm of policy of the government/president/beaurocrats/treasury/vested interest/and powers that be tp carry out policy by force if /when required and in the national interest(what s the national interest determined by)?Or are you suggesting they are acting independently?Not really as simple it seems somrtimes.Maybe you could dedicate a chapter(or 2) in your book
corran
03-02-2012, 09:43 PM
Gullible is someone who puts their trust totally in the currency of an insolvent country which can be printed without restraint by corrupt politicians.
I reckon there will be books written about that in a few years.
drillfix
03-02-2012, 09:52 PM
Gullible is someone who puts their trust totally in the currency of an insolvent country which can be printed without restraint by corrupt politicians.
I reckon there will be books written about that in a few years.
And dont forget about the movies which will be eventually made about all the Hangings and Revenge Mobs when the truth seekers seek them out and shot gun the heads of their partners or collaborators and the involved or knowing also beaten and locked up with nothing but water and bread crumbs.
Now thats what I call "worth every trillion they embezzled" :P
I've been reading the WSJ the last few days and it appears things aren't quite as bad as you guys paint. Europe's muddling through and while the property picture's still quite bleak, the DJIA is only 8% off its all-time high, NASDAQ at an 11 year high.
The jobs numbers are OK, the US economy is accelerating and no QE3.
DJIA up 20% in the last 4 months, very satisfactory.
I've been reading about the coming world economic implosion and hyperinflation scenario predicted by the 'experts' for years, but it won't happen, there's always prophets of doom without enough to do.
Jon Nadler says gold will be $1000 before it gets to $2000.
Maybe you need to watch RT News for a change.........The US has benefited from free money for far too long by way of petrodollars. In reality they are a bankrupt country, oh sorry, the "land of the free and brave??" give me a break, more like an Orwellian prison farm run by white collar criminals. I heard savvy US citizens are renouncing their citizenship and getting COMMUNIST CHINESE passports...........I guess cronyist communism is better than criminal fascism?
You've been watching too much Gerald Celente who predicted a colossal economic crash in 2010 that obviously never happened.
Criminal fascism. LOL. I spend a lot of time in the USA, just got back, everything looked OK to me, maybe you're on the wrong website, how about Socialist Aoteoroa, that might suit you better.
I'd sooner watch the Superbowl than the lunacy at Waitangi.
As for some US States making gold and silver a currency all that is, is a bit of grandstanding by a bunch of Ron Paul converts, if you want confirmation that gold isn't a currency try buying your next lot of groceries with it.
denpal
04-02-2012, 10:11 AM
So you think currency is a store of wealth?
I think you need to look a little deeper into Americas military objectives Skol-They have a habit of drumming up a reason to go into countries that dont play by their rules.
And that includes those that try to bypass their currency. Examples Iraq-Libiya-and now Iran among others.
But this time India,China,and Russia are coming to the party and are happy to bypass $US for oil purchases.
This scares the holy bejeeses out of USA-If they loose their $US defalt status they are in real trouble.
I know..I Know..Ive been reading to much of this or that...but I think maybe you need to dig a little deeper .Perhaps read a bit more.
You seem to have fallen hook,line and sinker for the USA PR machine,but dont worry..your not alone.
STRAT
04-02-2012, 10:38 AM
I know..I Know..Ive been reading to much of this or that....
Actually Skid. I reckon you are right on the money there bud.
The US media are working hard to drum up fear over Iran of late.
Even if its true. Can anyone honestly say Iran is going to be more dangerous with the bomb than Pakistan, Iran, India, Israel or the US. I think not. Its about being the kid in the neighbourhood with the biggest stick.
If the Republicans get in. It will be the next war they start in the name of democracy and freedom.
Iraq was chemical weapons
Iran is Nuclear weapons,
Both are really about oil.
......
corran
04-02-2012, 10:48 AM
As for some US States making gold and silver a currency all that is, is a bit of grandstanding by a bunch of Ron Paul converts, if you want confirmation that gold isn't a currency try buying your next lot of groceries with it.
Gold isn't currency Skol (at least not in New Zealand). If you try and buy groceries in NZ with anything other than NZ dollars you're not going to get far. That doesn't mean that gold isn't money. Two different things.
So you think currency is a store of wealth?
In concert with other assets, yes.
I wonder if the gold gamblers in 1980 thought their gold was a store of wealth as they watched in horror while it plunged 65%?
denpal
04-02-2012, 02:36 PM
Buying Guns, Magazines and
Petrol With Silver...
Saturday, 4 February 2012 – Melbourne, Australia
By Shae Smith
Buying Guns, Magazines and Petrol With Silver...
A few days ago, it was rumoured India and Iran agreed to trade in hard assets... India will give Iran gold. In exchange, Iran will give India oil.
This is a huge trade. India imports about US$12 billion of Iranian oil each year. To give you an idea, $12 billion dollars of oil equals about 6.87 million ounces of gold!
In one transaction both countries have ignored the value of paper dollars. Instead, they've bartered one commodity for the other.
The thing is, the Indian-Iranian deal isn't the first to use bullion as payment. But it may be the first on billion-dollar scale.
But one thing's for sure. It's further evidence that the way we value paper money is changing.
In fact, paying with bullion is happening more than you may think. It's not just gold either. Consumers are using silver for smaller transactions...
Take the case of a US blogger. He recently revealed that two different people bought guns from him on eBay with silver coins.
Then there's the Backwoods Home magazine in the US. If you don't want to pay in cash, you can pay your subscription in silver coins.
Or the Oregon Service station that'll reduce the cost of petrol to 20 cents a gallon if you pay using old coins...
At the time this photo was taken in May last year, two pre-1964 silver dimes were worth $5 based on their 90% silver content. Gas prices in America were nearing $4 a gallon at the time.
And there's even a mini mart in Los Angeles that prefers junk silver instead of greenbacks as payment for your groceries....
(NB: Junk silver simply refers to American coins pre-1965, which have 40% to 90% silver content. See this video to find out more.)
It's clear there's a growing number of people and businesses who are ditching paper money for real assets.
Smart Knowledge is an investment newsletter service that firmly supports the gold standard. To the extent that they only offer memberships priced in ounces of gold....If you're after their premium membership service, that'll be 5.75 ounces, thank you.
And in September last year, Donald Trump accepted a $176,000 deposit for a commercial lease in one of his skyscrapers. But not in cash or a cheque. The company taking the lease (APMEX a precious metals investment firm) paid the deposit using three 32-ounce gold bullion bars.
It might look like a marketing stunt. But Trump's not alone to wanting to do business with the shiny yellow metal.
In November 2010, the ICE Europe futures exchange started accepting gold bullion as a margin deposit for its crude oil and natural gas futures. Less than two months later, JP Morgan announced it would accept physical gold as collateral for some trades.
According to a Casey Research report from March last year...
'The World Gold Council is gaining traction in its push to have the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision accept the precious metals as a Tier-1 asset for banks, along with government bonds and currencies.'
It's surprising that precious metals aren't already considered a top notch asset for a bank.
But maybe these few transactions are just a sign of things to come.
Because using real assets, like gold, as payment could continue to happen on a billion-dollar scale. And the more it occurs, the more it shows that people are losing faith in the US currency and paper money in general.
The world's reserve currency is losing partners willing to trade in it. Iran has managed to completely avoid getting stuck with potentially worthless US dollars by snapping up a tangible asset.
Ironically, that puts Iran in the same camp as Donald Trump. Both are buying gold!
Now, this doesn't mean we've returned to the gold standard... yet. But consumer and business trading in gold is a sign some people value precious metals more than cash.
As more and more merchants open up to the possibility of trading with bullion, maybe it won't be long until gold is used as money for every day transactions... whether governments like it or not.
Shae Smith
Editor, Money Weekend
It's only a rumour India will trade oil for gold.
Indians are shrewd operators, has it occurred to you that if the the rumour's true that they're dumping gold at what they see as an exorbitant price in exchange for oil?
As for the Donald, I rest my case.
Answer my question about whether gold was a great 'store of wealth' in 1980 as it's value evaporated.
Looks like the POG is evaporating a little at the moment. Maybe it's the hedge funds starting to ease out of gold and into the stock market, there's been some talk about that on TV in the USA.
Shall we blame it on the 'manipulators'?
As for some US States making gold and silver a currency all that is, is a bit of grandstanding by a bunch of Ron Paul converts, if you want confirmation that gold isn't a currency try buying your next lot of groceries with it.[/QUOTE]
Who knows?- All it would take is a credit card co accepting payment from a gold acc.
It may seem far fetched but its a changing world.
As for some US States making gold and silver a currency all that is, is a bit of grandstanding by a bunch of Ron Paul converts, if you want confirmation that gold isn't a currency try buying your next lot of groceries with it.
Who knows?- All it would take is a credit card co accepting payment from a gold acc.
It may seem far fetched but its a changing world.[/QUOTE]
This gold acc could also have the facility to convert at the going rate to currency to actually pay the credit card payment.
That way all the Americans [or any others] that felt they were on a sinking ship could keep their money in gold and simply convert and pay credit card payment.
[which is not quite-but almost like paying for groceries in gold]
OK - maybe Im getting carried away but it just shows that its not impossible eh?
Pumice
04-02-2012, 06:33 PM
Anyone want to have a go at puting a value on gold?
Heres my quick attempt using global GDP and current gold holdings.
Obviously this will have some fundamental and caculation flaws, but hopefully someone out there would like to give it a crack.
US$/Ounce Tons (CNBC) Ounces Value of world gold
$1,750 30,700 982,400,000 $1,719,200,000,000
Discount rate Workd GDP (World Bank) Ounces/Discounted world GDP
$63,040,000,000
8% $788,000,000,000 $802.12
10% $630,400,000,000 $641.69
15% $420,266,666,667 $427.80
20% $315,200,000,000 $320.85
Pumice
04-02-2012, 06:45 PM
[QUOTE=Pumice;366975]Anyone want to have a go at puting a value on gold?
Heres my quick attempt using global GDP and current gold holdings.
Obviously this will have some fundamental and caculation flaws, but hopefully someone out there would like to give it a crack.
Table format:easier to view
3811
This man seems to talk a lot of common sense compared with other 'experts', like Von Greyerz, Sinclair, Schiff, Aden Sisters, ad infinitum.
www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/feb032012.html
Talking of the Aden Sisters, I've got a list here of 133 analysts and their gold forecasts.
The Aden Sisters predict gold $3000 to $5000 by Feb 2012.
Hahaha, hope none of you guys subscribe to them or you should be asking for your money back.
So far I'm more correct than the 133 analysts, and I'm not even an analyst.
Heres one for Skol :)
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10784326
But seriously....why don't people ignore the advertising and do some due diligence before investing large amounts of money
Thanks for that one Cam
There was some news about that last year in the papers, some people never learn, sad though to see them lose all that money.
There will be an interesting case coming up soon, Michael and Jacquie Bradley, watch for that one, next month I think. Michael Bradley died about a year ago after the SFO got involved but the case is still going ahead.
I have a friend who lost a colossal amount of money on that one, went ahead despite my advice to steer well clear.
trackers
09-02-2012, 10:42 AM
some people never learn
You're right about that
Nearly 40% difference between the gold price and the XGD and the XGD taking another hit today.
Something's gotta give soon, wait for it.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=1y&s=GLD&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=xgd.ax
tricha
09-02-2012, 01:57 PM
This man seems to talk a lot of common sense compared with other 'experts', like Von Greyerz, Sinclair, Schiff, Aden Sisters, ad infinitum.
www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/feb032012.html (http://www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/feb032012.html)
Talking of the Aden Sisters, I've got a list here of 133 analysts and their gold forecasts.
The Aden Sisters predict gold $3000 to $5000 by Feb 2012.
Hahaha, hope none of you guys subscribe to them or you should be asking for your money back.
So far I'm more correct than the 133 analysts, and I'm not even an analyst.
1yearchg (javascript:NewWindow('/glossary/LiveSpotGold.html#1year','LiveSpotGold','top=50,le ft=200,width=500,height=350,channelmode=0,dependan t=1,fullscreen=0,resizable=no,toolbar=0,status=0,s crollbars=1,location=0,menubar=0,directories=0');)
+366.50
+26.87%, unfortunately the only thing you are correct about, is u r a Dorklander
The $US index turned weaker at mid morning Thursday and hit another fresh nine week low overnight.
Vtrader
17-02-2012, 08:12 AM
4 hours ago I suspect the POG chart traced the end of the first 12345abc, of the next set of motive waves.
So a complete minor set, and a 1,2 of an intermediate series, and wave 5 of a 'major' series.
POG turned about $1706USD
Of course there is always another possible count, hindsight will identify.
There are some that suggest the next motive set up for gold will be significant.
But what would a washed up old pipe welder know about world finances.
(A. Bugger all, which is why I observe charts.)
Regards
V.
There was an excellent documentary on Warren Buffet on Sky a couple of nights back. Not one mention of the word gold.
Goldbugs mostly rubbish Buffett but BRK's performance since 1990 thrashes gold by 4:1.
Pumice
17-02-2012, 11:08 AM
Gold has traditionally been a store of value, not a high yielding/growth play.
The only reason gold would get $5000 would be if the USD disintegrated, but given recent economic data, that isn’t happening (most data has surprised to the upside).
Maybe fanatical investors simply added a bit of froth to the gold price, but are plenty of poorer performing investments than gold.
Time will tell.
I’m slightly bearish on gold (in real terms).
elZorro
17-02-2012, 11:31 AM
Just out, last quarter China purchased more gold than India, but India is still ahead on an annual basis, taking 27% of the production (they use 933 tonnes, or about 33 Moz).
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/China-overtakes-India-as-largest-gold-consumer/articleshow/11919582.cms
EZ,
The reason the chinese buy gold is not because they really want to, it's because there's no choice.
They don't have access to foreign markets, it's the bank, at low rates, overheated real estate or take your chances with gold.
drillfix
17-02-2012, 01:06 PM
They don't have access to foreign markets,
Huh? That is so far from the truth Skol, in fact complete opposite so not sure what page your on here mate.
Huh? That is so far from the truth Skol, in fact complete opposite so not sure what page your on here mate.
Perhaps this exerpt from the very latest Barron's might convince you. By the leader of Hong Kong-based Value Partners.
'China is a command and control economy. The textbooks you read at Princeton or Harvard are only partially applicable. In the Chinese situation, first, the banking system is very much under government control, and second, there is the phenomenon of financial repression. In simple language that means people cannot freely send their money overseas in search of higher returns'
Damned goldbugs, never do their homework.
That's why they're going to end up poor.
tricha
19-02-2012, 02:13 PM
There was an excellent documentary on Warren Buffet on Sky a couple of nights back. Not one mention of the word gold.
Goldbugs mostly rubbish Buffett but BRK's performance since 1990 thrashes gold by 4:1.
Very interesting, he broken a golden rule he himself set and like Hubbard, he is going down.
I guess that happens when you get to 80,
you start to lose your edge.
Very interesting, he broken a golden rule he himself set and like Hubbard, he is going down.
I guess that happens when you get to 80,
you start to lose your edge.
Depends which Hubbard you're talking about.
L. Ron Hubbard
or
Dick Hubbard
or
Allan Hubbard
or maybe you're just getting a little bit of confusion in your old age and referring to M. King Hubbert the peak oil crank.
macduffy
19-02-2012, 06:42 PM
Very drol Skol!
Got a laugh out of that!
:D
upside_umop
19-02-2012, 08:23 PM
Perhaps this exerpt from the very latest Barron's might convince you. By the leader of Hong Kong-based Value Partners.
'China is a command and control economy. The textbooks you read at Princeton or Harvard are only partially applicable. In the Chinese situation, first, the banking system is very much under government control, and second, there is the phenomenon of financial repression. In simple language that means people cannot freely send their money overseas in search of higher returns'
Damned goldbugs, never do their homework.
That's why they're going to end up poor.
Agree with that. Isn't that why China Class A shares trade at much higher multiples of the same, parallel listed stock in Hong Kong?
elZorro
23-02-2012, 06:32 PM
Waddayareckon about those gold/silver prices Skol? :)
I was wondering when we'd hear from you EZ.
Has OGC had a bit of a run?
Gold, no thanks, shares have thrashed gold for months on end.
drillfix
23-02-2012, 07:10 PM
Shares thrashed? Dont think so Skol.
Some say things are only about to start to get interesting as some stocks have not flinched, moved nor showed very much gains in their sp.
Sounds like a complete opposition to what your seeing, but each to their own hey~!
Shares thrashed? Dont think so Skol.
Some say things are only about to start to get interesting as some stocks have not flinched, moved nor showed very much gains in their sp.
Sounds like a complete opposition to what your seeing, but each to their own hey~!
Maybe you're on a different planet, my chart shows the S&P500 21% ahead of gold for the last 6 months. No dividend either on gold and you have to pay storage and insurance.
It's all downhill for the shiny stuff.
drillfix
23-02-2012, 10:34 PM
Maybe you're on a different planet, my chart shows the S&P500 21% ahead of gold for the last 6 months. No dividend either on gold and you have to pay storage and insurance.
It's all downhill for the shiny stuff.
Argue the fact all you want Skol, makes no difference.
Along with the presidential election its all part of the Greatest Show on earth.
Its all pumped money into a puppet market meaning, your so called S&P500 is a fabricated painted chart which is like believing in the pink fairy with magic wands.
I will give you a couple months or so before I accept your apology :P
elZorro
24-02-2012, 06:49 AM
I agree with that Drillfix- despite the facts that you can't eat it, it costs an absolute fortune (apparently) to store it, and it pays no dividends, a lot of people seem to want more gold. A bit like new cars really, only better. Great article about exploration stocks here.
http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20120223/2012-the-year-gold-exploration-stocks-explode.html
JBmurc
24-02-2012, 08:50 AM
I agree with that Drillfix- despite the facts that you can't eat it, it costs an absolute fortune (apparently) to store it, and it pays no dividends, a lot of people seem to want more gold. A bit like new cars really, only better. Great article about exploration stocks here.
http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20120223/2012-the-year-gold-exploration-stocks-explode.html
yes I agree the higher risk section of the Gold/silver sectors have been hammered unfairly and should rebound strongly during this year my two investment CVR , PXG are two to have been well oversold , going be some big money made by the smart ST's
yes I agree the higher risk section of the Gold/silver sectors have been hammered unfairly and should rebound strongly during this year my two investment CVR , PXG are two to have been well oversold , going be some big money made by the smart ST's
You've got it the wrong way round, shares are about right and gold is grossly overpriced.
The XGD is 10% behind gold for the last 6 months and the XGD is 26% behind the S&P500.
JBmurc
24-02-2012, 09:41 AM
You've got it the wrong way round, shares are about right and gold is grossly overpriced.
The XGD is 10% behind gold for the last 6 months and the XGD is 26% behind the S&P500.
really,,, don't think so tim...the gold price is the gold price you can jump up n down all you want and call it overpriced but as you should have learnt long ago Gold is in a strong Bull trend just like debts worldwide...
CVR start up year production numbers matched to current Gold silver prices give a first year cashflow of some 64mill USD the current market value is 18.8mill AUD valued down on the wait to start production any day now .....to say this is fair value is nuts
CVR start up year production numbers matched to current Gold silver prices give a first year cashflow of some 64mill USD the current market value is 18.8mill AUD valued down on the wait to start production any day now .....to say this is fair value is nuts
CVR, yeah, not looking good, not another of your 'good deals' is it? Like NAV?
JBmurc
24-02-2012, 10:40 AM
CVR, yeah, not looking good, not another of your 'good deals' is it? Like NAV?
you just keep an eye on CVR ....you might just get to see your first 10 bagger in the making
JBmurc
24-02-2012, 04:15 PM
Soundest investment's for the coming volatility
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/02.12/volatility.html
www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/02/hedges
elZorro
26-02-2012, 06:59 PM
www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/02/hedges (http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/02/hedges)
You can pat a pile of gold but it won't respond..a bit like the throwaway "has anyone ever seen the economy?"
Skol, that article produced this response from someone: apparently there's a very strong recent (negative?) correlation between the gold price and the long-term interest rates of other investments.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/06/treasuries-tips-and-gold-wonkish/
(http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/06/treasuries-tips-and-gold-wonkish/)
Gold goes up because other simple investments show they'll have poor returns in the future.
Sounds reasonable, nice and simple. US 20 year Interest rate graph, look at it beside the US gold price for the same period. While gold had an increasing trend throughout, it was certainly pulled back when interest rates rose, and accelerated when they dropped. A bit of a shame that interest rates might be bottoming out then..
EZ,
Well anyone with a minimal background in mathematics will take a look at the gold chart and see it's exponential, an element of danger there right now most goldbugs seem to be overlooking.
I disagree with the article in one respect, it says gold is 'scarce'
Hardly, in 2010, 2500 tonnes were mined and last year over 2800 tonnes were mined. The gold price increased most of last year and so far all of this year, to keep it rising and perpetuating the 'greater fool' theory, more suckers are required as well as soaking up the $160 billion worth being mined each year.
A mate of mine reckons 1000 tonnes of it has been mined at Martha Hill and there's more than that under Coromandel township, plus the ranges are loaded with it + Great Barrier Island.
Scarce, I doubt it.
elZorro
27-02-2012, 01:57 PM
I think scarce might mean scarce as a proportion of the Earth's crust. Miners will always work over old known ground if the price is right.
I had a thought, that as gold is also tied to the oil price, and that's going up at the moment, so will gold, even if 20 year interest rates bottom out or rise a small amount. Back up the truck..
I have grave doubts about the gold:oil ratio, however, Incredible Charts say if it gets to 20 - SELL gold
So if oil falls to $88 then gold is a sell at current prices, right?
STRAT
28-02-2012, 09:32 AM
Its all pumped money into a puppet market meaning, your so called S&P500 is a fabricated painted chart which is like believing in the pink fairy with magic wands.
Hi Drilly
Be that as it may. Its still a very real painting. Ask anyone who has profited from Stocks over the last few years.
If I was forced to choose one or the other for the next year in advance. Id take stocks over gold without hesitation.
STRAT
28-02-2012, 09:40 AM
Oil and Gold.
The picture says it all really but if these two were stock charts Id be thinkin about buying Oil. The other Id be less keen on. What is clear is they dont go hand in hand.
Argue the fact all you want Skol, makes no difference.
Along with the presidential election its all part of the Greatest Show on earth.
Its all pumped money into a puppet market meaning, your so called S&P500 is a fabricated painted chart which is like believing in the pink fairy with magic wands.
I will give you a couple months or so before I accept your apology :P
Doubt I'll need to apologise, the DOW and S&P500 are way ahead, despite the gold psychics predicting a mega-crash, hyperinflation and all the other crap we've been hearing for years.
I wonder when the last dollar will be in and gold starts heading south, because without more 'investors', the party's over, like a giant Madoff scheme.
I love conspiracy theories.
Who's 'painting' and 'fabricating' the S&P500 chart?
www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10788422
drillfix
28-02-2012, 04:52 PM
Doubt I'll need to apologise, the DOW and S&P500 are way ahead, despite the gold psychics predicting a mega-crash, hyperinflation and all the other crap we've been hearing for years.
Skol, in the short term you will continue to convince yourself that you feel right and continue to do so, but what I am saying is that you, like many others, have a bag over your head put there by somebody other than you, which you cant see.
Also known as (aka) Carrot in front of the donkey, hee haw :P
Or, here's a pic of you and the other's staring into the abyss once the blind fold comes off...LOL BAHHHH (http://www.ideachampions.com/heart/sheep-cliff1.jpg) :eek2: or this, Up We Go Folks (http://blog.lege.net/content/Follow_the_Lemmings_files/2011186950101688296S600x600Q85.jpg) or the system even, Dont Panic Follow Us (http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Jlnar_93vJU/TYxNqz24-OI/AAAAAAAABUA/RIOviaRrIEo/s1600/Three%2BBlind%2BMice.jpg) :ohmy:
Anyway, each to their own ~!
elZorro
28-02-2012, 05:39 PM
The blind leading the blind. I wish I could draw like that..
It all reminds me of some lines in the old Ray Stevens song, Everything is Beautiful (http://www.lyricsdownload.com/ray-stevens-everything-is-beautiful-lyrics.html). "There is none so blind as he who will not see. We must not close our minds; we must let our thoughts be free."
I'm not so sure about the rest of the lyrics however..
Skol, in the short term you will continue to convince yourself that you feel right and continue to do so, but what I am saying is that you, like many others, have a bag over your head put there by somebody other than you, which you cant see.
Just done a check, my play money, which is shares I trade a bit are up 7% for this month, so yeah, I feel right, but you didn't answer the question.
Who's 'painting' the S&P500?
The blind leading the blind. I wish I could draw like that..
I'm not so sure about the rest of the lyrics however..
Here's one for you and the rest of the goldbugs EZ.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ry4iwzS4Na0
I'll pretend my ship's not sinking, I'm the king of wishful thinking.
drillfix
28-02-2012, 06:11 PM
Just done a check, my play money, which is shares I trade a bit are up 7% for this month, so yeah, I feel right, but you didn't answer the question.
Who's 'painting' the S&P500?
Good that you feel right Skol, but I thought you would have guess the who part as there is no Who, but more rather, What.
What has painted the much of the US chats is the QE, given to banks, who dont give the money to business as they have not done a great deal with it, except their books look great, but they invest it in the markets, as why wouldn't they? after all its not their money right so what would they care if there was a crash, decline or whatever.
You see, had they not been given any QE funds, they would not dare to risk their won money hence the chart would appear very different of what "you and everybody else see's"!
Well if you provide some proof instead of trotting out another conspiracy theory you might have some credibility.
Like when gold declines, it's never, ever the goldbugs fault, it's always someone elses fault, normally the 'shorters', but also Bernanke, the Fed etc. etc. I see it all the time at work, something goes awry and everyone dives for cover and blames someone else.
I've got a huge list here of gold 'experts' prediciting the POG, also predicting economic hell, hyperinflation, an economic 'sudden stop', and a load of other codswallop as well.
So far, not a SINGLE ONE of them have correctly predicted the price of gold.
drillfix
28-02-2012, 08:44 PM
Well if you provide some proof instead of trotting out another conspiracy theory you might have some credibility.
From truth about painting charts to painting others out to be cosnpircy theorists all the time.
I am not talking about the pog here skol, I am talking about why the Dow looks like its eventually going to fall off a cliff whilst I waist my precious time arguing with you who just cannot see it, because you have your head buried somewhere I dare not mention.
You want proof?? Then simply ask yourself was there, or was there Not QE1 and QE2 ?? so why on earth would you want proof, when its common knowledge.
Anyway, enough from me, as there is no getting through to you Skol as whatever is in your mind is set in stone and it has fossilized.
Good luck and dont forget to take profits yeah.
Cheers~!
The goldbugs and their soothsayers have been predicting economic armageddon for years and it's never happened, Dow 1500, hyperinflation, all manner of hellish consequences.
The companies listed on the S&P500 Dow and other indexes actually do something, manufacture things, employ people, build aircraft, cars and machinery, gold does nothing, it's inert in more ways than one.
Time you guys realised that you've missed out on one of the most explosive rallies in recent history, too bad.
Since October last year my trading account's up 28% in AUD.
At what point would you concede defeat and conclude that economic armageddon won't occur?
You guys wanna laugh, read this, gold is 'liquid', "you can take it anywhere in the world and sell it". LOL
Another little boost for gold because without more suckers getting on board the ponzi scheme will collapse.
Hollywood-type heists, says a New Zealand gold dealer.
"[Robberies] are starting to become more and more prevalent. And we'll probably see more of it as time goes on," said Mike O'Kane, head of bullion at New Zealand Mint.
"You read about real-world equivalents of the Ocean's Eleven-type movies ... we've seen a few of those in the last 10 years that you wouldn't have seen in the 1980s or 1990s."
Ocean's Eleven, a 2001 remake of the 1960 film of the same name, was based around the efforts of a group of criminals to simultaneously rob the Bellagio, the Mirage and the MGM Grand casinos in Las Vegas.
In 2000 the price of gold hit its lowest point since the 1980s, at just less than US$300 ($356) an ounce.
Its value climbed steadily but doubled in the year after the 2008 financial crisis, and was as high as about US$1920 an ounce last August.
However, Mr O'Kane said even if criminals melted down gold they would still have trouble selling it on for market prices as it would not be marked by a recognisable refinery or mint.
But there was still large enough demand to ensure an international black market for gold, silver and jewellery, he said. "A good example of that would be Vietnam. In Vietnam if you are to buy property, 90 per cent of the transactions are done in gold. And the other 10 per cent are actually done in US dollars.
"The key thing about it is it's liquid - you can take it anywhere in the world and sell it. People will buy it off you. The liquidity of it is a key element."
India had been a large market for gold, but China had become the world's largest gold market almost overnight.
drillfix
29-02-2012, 12:03 PM
Yeah yeah yeah Skol.
Blah Blah Blah, thats what your best at, now rock'on and get back to your American house wife shows~!
So far, not a SINGLE ONE of them have correctly predicted the price of gold.[/QUOTE]
And nowhere has that been more true than with you, Skol LOL
So far, not a SINGLE ONE of them have correctly predicted the price of gold.
And nowhere has that been more true than with you, Skol LOL[/QUOTE]
Incorrect, I think my estimate is closer, the lowest estimate from all these 'experts' and gold 'analysts' is $2500USD, the highest is $15,000.
Imagine, I'll bet suckers actually pay these tea leaf readers for their 'expertise'.
Hey skid, maybe you could subscribe to the Mary-Ann and Pamela Aden Newsletter, they're well known gold aficianados. They reckoned gold would be $3000 - $5000 by February 2012.
It'll be money well spent.
Pumice
01-03-2012, 11:00 AM
Gold and Silver got smashed! (USD went up considerably)
Seems the Fed may raise well before 2014
and not a word from Skol......
Those holding Gold, whats your T/P and S/L targets?
Gold and Silver got smashed! (USD went up considerably)
Seems the Fed may raise well before 2014
and not a word from Skol......
Those holding Gold, whats your T/P and S/L targets?
Must be time to 'back the truck up'.
STRAT
01-03-2012, 11:47 AM
Yeah yeah yeah Skol.
Blah Blah Blah, thats what your best at, now rock'on and get back to your American house wife shows~!Now thats not nice.
Pumice
01-03-2012, 11:49 AM
Although I won’t take a short position on Gold, I have been accumulating USD.
Which is what I assume you have been doing.
Time will tell. But this move does look ominous. Could be a giant double top?
I’m sure there will be a bit of a hysteresis effect so, I doubt we will see gold back at $300 ever again (not in nominal terms at least)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/402361-bernanke-ignites-bear-market-in-gold-and-silver
JBmurc
01-03-2012, 02:50 PM
there is one group that benefits from the low interest rate environment—borrowers. This means the largest borrowers in the world, developed world governments, will be able to service their enormous amounts of debt more easily. This year alone, the U.S., Japan and Europe will roll over $8 trillion in federal debt.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Holmes/holmes_feb212012.html
Vtrader
01-03-2012, 05:48 PM
EWT 5-a
Nothing to be scared of, buy the next dip which will mark 1,2,3,4,5,a,b,c from my last EWT gold note (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7449-Gold&p=367963&viewfull=1#post367963). Upwards from there...
DYOR
V.
elZorro
01-03-2012, 10:04 PM
EWT 5-a
Nothing to be scared of, buy the next dip which will mark 1,2,3,4,5,a,b,c from my last EWT gold note (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7449-Gold&p=367963&viewfull=1#post367963). Upwards from there...
DYOR
V.
OK Vtrader, will watch out to see if you are right. These people think it's a pullback and not the end of gold's bull run either.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/gold-down-5-pc-biggest-one-day-drop-in-3-years/articleshow/12091782.cms
At least there's some ideas about what caused the gold selling panic this morning.
In the meantime EZ the S&P500 is 26% ahead of gold for the last 6 months, at what stage do you throw in the towel?
elZorro
02-03-2012, 08:12 AM
In the meantime EZ the S&P500 is 26% ahead of gold for the last 6 months, at what stage do you throw in the towel?
You may be right about that figure, what was the story over the last few years - different time periods? You'll be pleased to know that my silver bar is now almost worth what I paid for it a few months ago, but I am taking a longer-term view..
In any case, for explosive results from gold, a well chosen explorer or new producer is the way to go. It's the choosing that's difficult.
Well the S&P is 30% ahead of the XGD for the last 6 months so good luck.
What would happen if we all sold our equities, bonds, cash, bank deposits, properties and cars and bought gold?
Billions of people would own gold and it would probably $100,000 an ounce, but there would be nothing to buy with it because the equity markets would collapse, there'd be no manufacturing, unemployment would be astronomic , it doesn't add up.
elZorro
02-03-2012, 06:45 PM
Well the S&P is 30% ahead of the XGD for the last 6 months so good luck.
What would happen if we all sold our equities, bonds, cash, bank deposits, properties and cars and bought gold?
Billions of people would own gold and it would probably $100,000 an ounce, but there would be nothing to buy with it because the equity markets would collapse, there'd be no manufacturing, unemployment would be astronomic , it doesn't add up.
Interesting, I wonder what proportion of people own shares or bonds, not a lot I'd expect. You should not have brought up the subject of cars, Skol. If you plotted the value of almost any car against gold it would be a very sad comparison. I'm all for people owning productive assets, but second best is holding onto their capital. Over the last 10 years, gold has beaten cash in the bank, owning cars, most property, and most equities. It's not an investor's job to have cash sitting in the bank so it can be marked up to someone else for their investment.
Interesting, I wonder what proportion of people own shares or bonds, not a lot I'd expect. You should not have brought up the subject of cars, Skol. If you plotted the value of almost any car against gold it would be a very sad comparison. I'm all for people owning productive assets, but second best is holding onto their capital. Over the last 10 years, gold has beaten cash in the bank, owning cars, most property, and most equities. It's not an investor's job to have cash sitting in the bank so it can be marked up to someone else for their investment.
Over the last 10 years gold has done well indeed, but for the previous 20 years a Hillman Avenger would probably have been a better investment.
Nothing goes up forever, even my boring TLS shares have beaten gold by 10% in last 12 months.
JBmurc
02-03-2012, 09:40 PM
Today legendary value investor, Jean-Marie Eveillard told King World News he believes central banks are desperate and they are intervening in the gold market. Eveillard, who oversees $50 billion at First Eagle Funds, had this to say about the situation, “Usually I don’t have much to say for bullion regarding day to day trading. But a move of $75 is somewhat striking. Central banks acknowledge they intervene in foreign exchange markets. They (central banks) sort of don’t exactly deny, but they are very quiet about the fact that obviously they also intervene in the gold market.”
Jean Marie Eveillard continues:
“For all I know that may be the case today (that central banks are intervening in the gold market). Whether the fact that it’s the last day of the month is important or not, I leave that to traders to explain, if there is even an explanation there.
I understand this morning that Mr. Bernanke said something to the effect that he didn’t see the point to having additional stimulus right now, although if necessary he would provide it....
The gold standard is kaput, once and for all.
http://video.ft.com/v/1484287534001/Gold-and-the-basket-case-
drillfix
06-03-2012, 03:17 PM
Yeah sure, whatever you say.
All hail Skol, the peoples lost prophet.
Yeah sure, whatever you say.
All hail Skol, the peoples lost prophet.
Pressure starting to get to you is it? If I owned lots of gold I'd be feeling dejected too, given that the DJIA is 25% ahead of gold in the last 6 months.
In AUD DJIA is about 32% ahead, so how much gold have you got?
I've got zero, you show me yours and I'll show you mine.
drillfix
06-03-2012, 06:17 PM
Pressure?
Nope, just another day reading planet Skol.
I only have a small footing in the market at moment skol, so perhaps I am not the adventure man you should be haggling with but more so somebody whom is fully invested.
Remember, I dont care if gold goes up or down, or even sideways, it just does not matter to me.
Just trade what you see and if you can, try to be at peace with yourself and everybody that is around you.
Bernanke's QE silence a blow to gold price.
By Jack Farchy in London
Studious avoidance of the subject disappoints
Rarely could two words – or the failure to mention them – have had such an impact.
For gold investors, who had set their hearts on a fresh bout of “quantitative easing”, Ben Bernanke’s studied avoidance of the subject last week came as a considerable disappointment. In the hours after the chairman of the Federal Reserve spoke, bullion prices tumbled almost $100 an ounce.
The 5 per cent fall, gold’s largest daily drop in more than three years, has triggered a nervous reappraisal of the precious metal among some investors: how strong can the fundamentals of the market be, they ask, if a non-denial from the Federal Reserve chief can have such a marked impact?
The nervous shake-out has continued this week with gold on Tuesday dipping below its 200-day moving average, a technical indicator closely watched by traders, for the first time since mid-January to touch a low of $1,664 a troy ounce.
“When things get back to normal, then we’ll be back to looking at jewellery demand and mine supply,” says James Steel, precious metals strategist at HSBC in New York. “But right now, Fed policy is highly influential in determining the gold price.”
Mr Bernanke’s role as the pacesetter of the gold market is nothing new. His hint of a second round of QE at a speech in August 2010 helped trigger a 15 per cent rally over the following four months. The Fed’s promise in August last year to keep rates on hold for two years provided the momentum for gold to rally to its nominal record $1,920 a troy ounce in September.
Nonetheless, the extent of last Wednesday’s fall and the decline in prices since then, has surprised many investors and analysts. After all, Mr Bernanke did not rule out a third round of quantitative easing – QE3 – he simply avoided reference to it.
“There are hints that rates at the zero bound are no longer sufficient reasons for the gold price to move higher,” says Tom Kendall, precious metals analyst at Credit Suisse. “More QE is wanted.”
That creates a problem for gold bulls: improving data on the US economy make a QE3 look less likely.
The sharp drop in price on Wednesday was exacerbated by a single large sell order, with traders speculating that a large hedge fund could be behind the selling.
More fundamentally, however, Wednesday’s price tumble revealed the lack of interest in gold from some of its most important supporters.
While investor positioning in Comex gold futures had by last Tuesday risen to the most bullish level in five months, bankers say that macro hedge funds, often at the leading edge of investor interest in the metal, have stayed out of the market this year.
Edel Tully, precious metals strategist at UBS, says that “there is a general hesitancy to put on any strategic trades.”
Moreover, the physical gold market has been quiet. Although the recent price drop has awakened some interest, demand from both India and China – the two largest consumers of physical gold – has been slack so far this year, traders say.
“The market had gone stale,” says Ms Tully. “Physical demand was deadly quiet in the lead-up to Wednesday.”
For all that few investors are abandoning their longer-term bullish view on gold. The reason? Naturally, it’s all about the Fed.
The US central bank’s financial crisis firefighting actions – cutting rates to zero and launching two rounds of quantitative easing – have succeeded in pushing inflation-adjusted interest rates to record lows in the US.
Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, points out that US real rates, as measured by 10-year inflation-protected Treasuries, have historically traded in a tight correlation with gold.
In recent months that correlation has broken down. “The financial markets are pricing in a very different easing environment from the gold price right now,” he says. “Gold is already undervalued relative to its fundamentals, so it doesn’t need more QE to go higher.”
That bullish thesis is underpinned by the Fed’s move in January to extend its pledge to keep rates on hold to late 2014.
Many analysts and investors believe the eventual shift to monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve will mark the end of gold’s decade-long rally, which has lifted prices from less than $300 an ounce in 2001 to almost $2,000 last year.
By promising to keep rates at zero until 2014, therefore, the Fed has pushed back the gold price peak, which many analysts had expected to come in late 2012 or early 2013.
“The consensus within the Fed to extend the zero interest rate policy to beyond 2013 does, all other things being equal, imply an extension of the gold bull market,” says Philip Klapwijk, head of metals analytics at Thomson Reuters GFMS, a leading precious metals consultancy.
“Maybe in the short term QE3 matters,” agrees a gold specialist at a large hedge fund. “The more important thing is that rates are on hold and I don’t think that is going to change.”
Here is one for the Skol side of the fence
http://www.businessinsider.com/australian-gold-sales-collapsed-2012-3#ixzz1oaEOgy1X
Hey JB,
I see JP Morgan has passed its test with flying colours, increased its dividend and is gonna buy back $12 billion in stock.
If my memory serves me correctly weren't you peddling some kind of scenario that JP Morgan was gonna go bust because of their shorting gold, right?
The goldbugs were buying 'physical' to send JP Morgan to the wall, looks like JP won.
JBmurc
14-03-2012, 05:08 PM
Hey JB,
I see JP Morgan has passed its test with flying colours, increased its dividend and is gonna buy back $12 billion in stock.
If my memory serves me correctly weren't you peddling some kind of scenario that JP Morgan was gonna go bust because of their shorting gold, right?
The goldbugs were buying 'physical' to send JP Morgan to the wall, looks like JP won.
Yeah freddie and fanny also passed just before they crash and need bailed out ...also trusting the FED no thanks
Yeah freddie and fanny also passed just before they crash and need bailed out ...also trusting the FED no thanks
LOL
J P Morgan 1
Goldbugs Nil
JBmurc
14-03-2012, 05:15 PM
LOL
J P Morgan 1
Goldbugs Nil
On February 23rd, 2009, Obama said his administration would address the rising debt. He said “I refuse to leave our children with a debt they cannot repay.” Hello! We can’t pay it off now and there is never any proposal to pay anything off.-M Armstrong
http://www.inflateordie.com/files/Flash%20Crash%2003-01-2012.pdf
Looks to me like its the final nail in the coffin of the gold/silver bull market.
JBmurc
14-03-2012, 07:27 PM
Looks to me like its the final nail in the coffin of the gold/silver bull market.
gee never heard you say that before ....like back over 2yrs ago
If your'd brought mill of OGC back in 20-30c not all that long ago your'd have a NICE profit -no air-line would get close to a 1500%+ return
As for NAV keep it on your watchlist when it's 50c+ I'll be drinking your champagne Skol LOL
Here's something for you JB from 23/5/10. NAV now .016c
JBmurc
14-03-2012, 09:32 PM
Here's something for you JB from 23/5/10. NAV now .016c
yes don't forget GRM that burnt me much more least I made a tidy profit on NAV ...
Looks like this is 'it'.
The slope could be very slippery indeed, in 1980 there was no computer trading, CFD's, or ETF's.
elZorro
15-03-2012, 08:13 AM
Looks like this is 'it'.
The slope could be very slippery indeed, in 1980 there was no computer trading, CFD's, or ETF's.
Maybe, if oil follows down, it's not at the moment. The US$ hasn't gone sky-high either. This could be your last chance to buy gold at a great price Skol..:)
Maybe, if oil follows down, it's not at the moment. The US$ hasn't gone sky-high either. This could be your last chance to buy gold at a great price Skol..:)
Gold is in freefall EZ, I think we can say with great certainty that the bubble's burst, might be the time to exit OGC and anything else gold you own before the rot really sets in.
JBmurc
15-03-2012, 09:24 AM
well I'm glad my two gold investments are both very cheap one with a low cost to produce 500-600oz USD the other with very low value to resource $15-16per oz
STRAT
15-03-2012, 01:47 PM
Lol. You fellas sure know how to whip up a storm in a teacup.
Gold in US dollars peaked August last year and has been in a decending trading ( down trend ) range since. Freefall could be considered a bit of an exaggeration. A drop to $1550 may be cause for alarm. Maybe, and thats a ways off yet.
In real money its been going sideways for a year and a half now. Whats the fuss about?
Looks like gold bars under the bed are about as safe and profitable as Aussie dollars under the bed.
trackers
15-03-2012, 02:01 PM
Gold is in freefall EZ, I think we can say with great certainty that the bubble's burst, might be the time to exit OGC and anything else gold you own before the rot really sets in.
Shows over Goldies! ASX gold ETF live chart:
http://i.imgur.com/jSLJZ.jpg
oh..wait
STRAT
15-03-2012, 02:05 PM
I thought that was Tricha posting there for a second. Trackers.
JBmurc
15-03-2012, 02:08 PM
Yes as we can see thanks to trackers chart is GOLD is still moving in a very large bull trend now if GOLD crashed to 1400 etc over the next few months and stays down for months I'd be agreement that GOLD trend is broken till then it's still moving on a bull trend
trackers
15-03-2012, 02:09 PM
I thought that was Tricha posting there for a second. Trackers.
I was going to go one size bigger and put it in red but didn't have the heart :(
Like 1980, it didn't go straight down, there's no reason to buy it, every reason to sell it.
The PM fad is over, probably until 2034, ready for the next generation to get cleaned out.
JBmurc
15-03-2012, 06:49 PM
Like 1980, it didn't go straight down, there's no reason to buy it, every reason to sell it.
The PM fad is over, probably until 2034, ready for the next generation to get cleaned out.
you forgot to finish with IMHO ...........as most that have investments in the PGM's understand there investment risks/upsides much better than the likes of yourself that seem to have a massive chip on your shoulder against PGM (and OIL) over the years with the ongoing and constant doom of a repeat 1980
you forgot to finish with IMHO ...........as most that have investments in the PGM's understand there investment risks/upsides much better than the likes of yourself that seem to have a massive chip on your shoulder against PGM (and OIL) over the years with the ongoing and constant doom of a repeat 1980
But I'm right aren't I?
Oil didn't go to $200/$400 as predicted by tricha and bermuda and neither will gold/silver go to $50,000/$150.
Still got the 1500 oz?
Might pay to dump it before it corrodes away.
JBmurc
15-03-2012, 09:09 PM
[QUOTE=Skol;370371]But I'm right aren't I?
Oil didn't go to $200/$400 as predicted by tricha and bermuda and neither will gold/silver go to $50,000/$150.
Still got the 1500 oz?
But Oil is over $100bbl nymex 120bbl brent thats not exactly cheap if my memory is right you were talking sub $60bbl should be the right price....
As for the gold silver price prediction's I've never said the PGM would go up 50,000 au 150 ag overnight IMHO gold will see over 2,000 late this year early next longer term 3yrs+ I would be surprised to see it double that..
Silver I'm more bullish on longer term believe the ratio between the two will close to the mid teen so 3-4yrs out Silver could well see $250oz
Still holding 1400oz of silver any major pull backs in "THE REAL BULLION MARKET VALUE" I'd be buying more...if I had to sell it wouldn't be hard to get $45oz NZD for the lot easy...
Been surprised few guys that I know are now looking at buying size-able holdings in Silver bullion that I didn't think would.
Gaining acceptance as a different investment IMHO..maybe even one day skol might wake up....
elZorro
15-03-2012, 09:39 PM
Gold falls as the Dollar rises
By Colin Twiggs
March 15th, 2012 1:00 a.m. ET (5:00 p:m AET)
Spot Gold followed through below last week's low, indicating a correction to test primary support at 1500.
Respect of the long-term rising trendline would indicate the primary up-trend is intact, but reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum
below zero for a second time warns of a down-trend. Target for a down-trend would be 1200 to 1400*.
Colin Twiggs has a TA view, doesn't care either way. But even $1500 gold would be a correction, part of the long-term uptrend still. In the meantime, anyone expecting goldie shares to hold their value in general, will be disappointed.
Skol, I sold most of my OGC a while ago. Anytime soon they'll be a massive bargain.
P.S. I quite like Tricha's posts.
In 1980 from top to bottom, gold fell 65%.
If history repeats itself, which it quite often does, then gold would fall to about $670, a little less than what I calculate is its inflation-adjusted price. It took 13 years to hit rock-bottom.
Silver fell 92% finally bottoming out at $4 in 1993 or thereabouts.
One analyst on Yahoo Finance has predicted gold will fall to $1300 some time this year.
Incredible Charts says "but reversal of a 63 day Twiggs Momentum below 0 for a second time warns of a downtrend. Target for a downtrend would be $1200 to $1400".
www.cnbc.com/id/46256361/
Vtrader
24-03-2012, 10:26 AM
I count 12345 during Jan-Feb 2012, abc during March.
c occurred 22 march
Seems to fit a normal EWT, 2 months motive, 1 month correction
It is possible that there is another count, this pattern fits with many other counts for me.
Waiting for a little more confirmation then will be acting.
V.
elZorro
24-03-2012, 01:46 PM
Er, Vtrader, do you need your EWT book back? Maybe sometime next week the Hamilton branch of ST could have a meeting..
P.S. do you mean gold is about to take off again, back up the truck?
Yep, time to back the truck up, a moonshot is imminent.
Categories: Economics / Markets
Topics: Gold
Investors who have helped pushed gold prices up to record highs are now turning their backs on the precious metal, with figures this week showing heavy selling by gold ETFs.
SPDR Gold Shares ETF, the world's largest bullion-backed fund, sold 25.4 tonnes of the metal between Monday and Thursday, according to the Financial Times.
Since the start of December, the ETF's gold holdings have fallen by 44 tonnes - roughly 20% of monthly global mine production of the metal.
In total it has sold about 3% of its physical gold holding, and currently has around 1,282 tonnes remaining.
The sell-off comes after a sharp fall in the gold spot price, which has tumbled from $1,920 back in September, to today's price of $1,645.
The 15% decline has been caused by a renewed appetite for risk assets, as global data picks up - notably in the US - and hopes for a prolonged period of outperformance from equities grows.
Investors are backing shares in Europe in particular to keep rising following the brutal sell-off seen in late 2011.
However, the outlook is far from certain and a return of sovereign worries in Europe - which could this time be sparked by Spain where CDS spreads are rising - could cause a fresh sell-off in markets and spark a retreat to safe havens such as gold.
Read more: http://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/2163134/investors-flog-gold-funds-metal-loses-lustre#ixzz1pzrsA8vN
Investment Week - News and analysis for investment advisors and wealth managers. Claim your free subscription today.
Vtrader
24-03-2012, 08:28 PM
Seems a bit odd, to be waiting for some significant event, or a change in oppinion for whatever reason... just because the chart count could be interpreted as complete.
Hey if were easy everyone would be predicting the future and getting it right.
We are all attempting , some better than others. Some vocal winners and losers, some quietly achieving, and some quietly going broke...
Technically it is possible for gold to turn from this position.
Am yet to state that it will or will not, it is up to everyone to decide for yourself.
EWT is my chosen method, with supporting indicators.
A secret is something you tell only one person (or a few), until you tell someone your secret is merely an idea.
My oppinion is my idea, I publish it when I feel it may have value to the few that read here. If there is a large opposition to my idea I do consider your views and it is possible that my oppinion will change.
You all know to Do Your Own Research, EWT is not supported by everyone.
elZorro,
The trucks are not backing up, however the fuel tanks are full, COF is up to date, and the drivers are rested in preparation for a contracted load to an unspecified destination. Metaphorically to be loaded to maximum Gross weight, like Fonterra have been carrying for years. Now the others are allowed also.
You often write about insider trading... when was the last time anyone saw a Fonterra milk truck on a weighbridge?
Remember Smokey and the Bandit, BJ and the Bear, even Knight Rider, influential TV for me as a kid.
Favourite trucks, White Volvo Globetrotter and fridge semi-trailer.
3915
Enough now, charts calling
V.
elZorro
26-03-2012, 09:26 AM
I agree Vtrader, gold could go any way from here. Just heard about a professional person who sold his shares a few years ago and bought gold, simply as a way of stabilising his position. Turned out to be a smart idea, now it's worth 3x the amount, no work involved at all. The joke about 'backing up the truck' was aimed at our mate Skol, never fails to raise a response..
Remember, you can't eat gold, it costs a lot to store it, it doesn't produce dividends. And it's a barbarous relic. :)
Why would you want to eat gold when you can buy a years worth of steak with one tiny piece?LOL
Why would you want to eat gold when you can buy a years worth of steak with one tiny piece?LOL
Which butcher shop did you got to?
In a few months time it'll be gravy beef, not steak.
Pumice
26-03-2012, 11:28 AM
A few month?
Thats a pretty big call Skol.
I'm not a fan of Gold, but I cant see every single holder of the stuff rushing to the exit.
Seems there will always be someone willing to buy it going by this thread.
You think I'm a pessimist?
This from The Telegraph, 1/3/12
Sharp falls in the gold price have prompted some bears or pessimists to predict it will plunge below $1,000 (£625) an ounce.
Even specialist dealers, such as GoldCore, talked of “blood in the gold and silver trading pits as leveraged longs got their heads handed to them on a plate”.
Goldcore priced bullion at $1,721 or £1,079 per ounce this morning, compared to yesterday’s fix of $1,788 or £1,121 per ounce. A spokesman said: “The massacre is attributed to a host of different reasons – from month end book squaring to Bernanke’s suggestion that ultra loose monetary policies may soon come to an end.
“None of these reasons would justify the scale of the massive sell offs seen in gold and silver yesterday. Gold and silver markets saw massive sell orders from large institutional sources – as only large institutions selling could have caused a price falls of the magnitude seen yesterday.”
Brian Dennehy of independent financial advisers (IFAs) Dennehy Weller commented: “Yet again the ‘safe haven’ myth of gold has exploded. It went down during intraday trading by about $100.
“This doesn’t mean the bull market has ended. It just means that when you buy gold you must do so with your eyes open – it is a highly volatile fringe asset.
“Our technical analysis suggests one of two possibilities. That the bull run is over and the price will eventually work its way down into the $700 to $1,000 range – or one final high lies just ahead before that large correction towards $1,000 will begin.”
elZorro
26-03-2012, 03:36 PM
And The Telegraph hates gold, nothing to see here, moving along.. Here are some other opinions:
http://www.goldinmind.com/gold-updates-news/gold-price-forecasts.html
Most expect gold to surpass $2,000 in 2012, but also to drop as low as $1200-$1500 at times.
And The Telegraph hates gold, nothing to see here, moving along.
A rather sweeping unusual statement, how do you come to that conclusion?
elZorro
26-03-2012, 08:59 PM
A rather sweeping unusual statement, how do you come to that conclusion?
Skol, I might have confused the paper with the WSJ.. anyway i was just reading the Equedia article today, and that's interesting. Manipulation of the gold market In February. Certainly, some major player(s) selling gold and silver in a vast quantity, and not to get the highest return possible. The object must have been to pull the PGM market down, make it look scary and volatile.
http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=orkbnrcab&v=001qwhULkbmHDu1yv5-QPFFD22w2PvOmPo-Yvtv3Jiy4gRi59aZdOELs6M9o0XMqyX541PGABnoGuUQdiwk9f do-97e_WoPOqHKO44m6V2Xd6A%3D
EZ,
All that stuff about 'manipulation' in the gold and silver markets is nonsense.
Allegedly it's been going on for years but no one's got any proof. JB Murc says it's JP Morgan but JP Morgan looks squeaky clean to me after their recent stress tests.
Not only that, their CEO has been nominated as one of the world's best by Barron's.
The old 'manipulation' conspiracy theories are wearing real thin.
Everyone is manipulating,skol.
The real question is where will,you,me,gold be when the musical chairs stop.
Meanwhile back at the butchers,he wouldnt take my gold coin-so i got out my paycheck,damn,he wouldnt take that either!...so I had to go to the bank and cash my check or go down to Kiwi mint and sell my coin-Man! I thought,thats alot more steaks than a while back when i bought it-but I decided to keep it for better or worse[back to those musical chairs ]
JBmurc
27-03-2012, 08:45 AM
Gold is in freefall EZ, I think we can say with great certainty that the bubble's burst, might be the time to exit OGC and anything else gold you own before the rot really sets in.
Wrong again Gold-$1692
Just another false dawn, there's no hope for PM. Lower highs and lower lows = the death knell.
I posted an article the other day by a guy that reckoned his algorithms showed that the gold trades over $1500 were the 'mums and dads' and trades below were the institutions.
Once it got to $1500 most of the instos bowed out and left it to the patsys.
JBmurc
27-03-2012, 12:55 PM
Right yeah Gold keeps on Bull trend and it a false dawn yet any pullback sell-down means it's all over....crash within days bah bah.....
elZorro
27-03-2012, 07:09 PM
That spike upwards of $20-$40 in the gold price on 26 March (USA) was caused by Ben Bernanke suggesting the economy needs a bit of a push (well sort of). QE3 could be mentioned/hinted at in April.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/26/markets-commodities-idUSL2E8EQA5G20120326
drillfix
28-03-2012, 05:00 PM
LOL Skol,
Is it now getting to the point where no comment needed and just let the links to the talking :P
LOL Skol,
Is it now getting to the point where no comment needed and just let the links to the talking :P
How many pages on gold here? 247, just about everything's been said, the general opinion seems to be that gold isn't going to the moon, it's not gonna be $20,000 an ounce or silver $150 an ounce, it's over until 2034.
The world economy isn't coming to a grinding halt as the goldbugs have asserted and I have disagreed.
So how old will you be in 2034 drillfix? You'll pull the gold bars out of the bottom drawer and give them to the grandkids.
drillfix
28-03-2012, 05:19 PM
Your not wrong about that Skol, every thing could have been said x20 easily.
Dont have kids, so definitely wont have any grand kids. (or so far anyways).
I also prefer to choose to live in the moment, rather than predicting doom or boom and just trade it for it is what it is as the river will flow which way it is flowing.
Wrong again Gold-$1692
Gold $1657.
A 'smack down.' (LOL)
Who's responsible for this one then JB?
Must be someone's fault, Bernanke, JP Morgan?
JBmurc
29-03-2012, 09:31 AM
well the same ones that are always responsible ...the paper traders
Fact is worldwide average gold production grades are dropping now average 1.8g/t (30yrs ago 4-5g/t)
The global gold investment demand is growing exponentially, while physical gold production in several important nations is flat, in decline, or in South Africa's case in steep chronic decline due to horrendous mismanagement and stupidity. It all adds up to shortage of supply and much higher physical gold price. Observe the reduction since 1970 from 2600 tons of annual SA output, while the SA share of global output has fallen from 80% to 15%.
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/03.12/groundhog.html
We're running out.
Doesn't look like it to me.
Notice the part about 50% of all the gold ever produced was produced since 1967.
www.goldsheetlinks.com/production2.htm
Pumice
29-03-2012, 01:03 PM
well the same ones that are always responsible ...the paper traders
Fact is worldwide average gold production grades are dropping now average 1.8g/t (30yrs ago 4-5g/t)
The global gold investment demand is growing exponentially, while physical gold production in several important nations is flat, in decline, or in South Africa's case in steep chronic decline due to horrendous mismanagement and stupidity. It all adds up to shortage of supply and much higher physical gold price. Observe the reduction since 1970 from 2600 tons of annual SA output, while the SA share of global output has fallen from 80% to 15%.
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/03.12/groundhog.html
I think you'll find that Indian jewellers have gone on strike over the import tax on gold. bit of a hit to demand in the ST.
Can’t really blame paper traders, they are just as likely to push up the price of gold as bring it down.
JBmurc
29-03-2012, 01:17 PM
I think you'll find that Indian jewellers have gone on strike over the import tax on gold. bit of a hit to demand in the ST.
Can’t really blame paper traders, they are just as likely to push up the price of gold as bring it down.
Of course paper traders move the daily movements there is as much as 99x as much “paper” or digital gold is bought on commodities exchanges such as COMEX, as there is traded in actual delivery of physical gold..
Pumice
29-03-2012, 02:08 PM
Of course paper traders move the daily movements there is as much as 99x as much “paper” or digital gold is bought on commodities exchanges such as COMEX, as there is traded in actual delivery of physical gold..
That’s my point, you could conclude that paper traders have pushed the price of gold well above its natural value.
As much as you could conclude that they are holding it down.
My bet is they have driven it up to unsustainable levels. IMHO, but I have no financial position in gold.
JBmurc
29-03-2012, 03:35 PM
That’s my point, you could conclude that paper traders have pushed the price of gold well above its natural value.
As much as you could conclude that they are holding it down.
My bet is they have driven it up to unsustainable levels. IMHO, but I have no financial position in gold.
Natural value so whats Gold's natural value ??
bung5
29-03-2012, 03:54 PM
Natural value so whats Gold's natural value ??
probably about $100 an ounce on its practical uses :P ( at best)
JBmurc
29-03-2012, 04:23 PM
probably about $100 an ounce on its practical uses :P ( at best)
LOL you should go short the hell out of gold if you think it's worth only that much ....for one thing all known gold production outside human slaves would stop...Bernake says it's a relic yet even though the US holds the most doesn't sell any ??? and while the their debts are out of control...
bung5
29-03-2012, 04:43 PM
hahaha what I think its worth and what people will pay are completely different things :P . Just like the tulip market in the 1600's
Who knows maybe one day enough people will think the same . Either way I'm not one to guess
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania)
JBmurc
29-03-2012, 05:04 PM
hahaha what I think its worth and what people will pay are completely different things :P . Just like the tulip market in the 1600's
Who knows maybe one day enough people will think the same . Either way I'm not one to guess
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania)
Wish I could grow Gold like tulips or fiat money(credit card etc) sadly it's extremely rare aka. why grades are dropping 1.8 grams per ton of ore ....
Even boring old cash has done better than gold or silver for the last 6 months and shares have pummelled the goldbugs, who've been forecasting the end of economic time as we revert to gold and silver coins and a barter economy LOL.
Tulips would be a much better deal.
JBmurc
29-03-2012, 05:52 PM
I see the BRICS nations looking at setting up a new Reserve bank to rival the likes of the FED,,,I'd say also setting up alternative to SWIFT for countries dealing with the BRICS ...
Also see China-Aussie doing a bi-trade deal using their own currencies not the USD
USD not look good ....time to buy some more SKOL
USD index looks OK to me, been moving up since May last year.
Bad news for PM, Jon Nadler says the prognosis isn't good.
JBmurc
29-03-2012, 06:09 PM
USD index looks OK to me, been moving up since May last year.
Bad news for PM, Jon Nadler says the prognosis isn't good.
As Jon Nadler prognosis are mostly always wrong ..I won't be losing any sleep
...let me know when he changes his tune then I'll listen...when he's bullish gold I'll be selling my PGM shares
As Jon Nadler prognosis are mostly always wrong ..I won't be losing any sleep
...let me know when he changes his tune then I'll listen...when he's bullish gold I'll be selling my PGM shares
PGM?
I've just had a look at that, another NAV, it's headed for oblivion, but definitely in keeping with your policy of holding your silver all the way to the bottom
JBmurc
29-03-2012, 07:26 PM
PGM?
I've just had a look at that, another NAV, it's headed for oblivion, but definitely in keeping with your policy of holding your silver all the way to the bottom
not PGM my PM shares--precious metal--CVR,PXG
not PGM my PM shares--precious metal--CVR,PXG
They look just as bad.
JBmurc
29-03-2012, 07:45 PM
They look just as bad.
right forgot you think your a guru Gold share picker LOL
right forgot you think your a guru Gold share picker LOL
Try WDR, my pick for the competiton. LOL
Talking about the competition. Aaaah, maybe we won't talk about that then.
JBmurc
29-03-2012, 07:55 PM
Try WDR, my pick for the competiton. LOL
Talking about the competition. Aaaah, maybe we won't talk about that then.
--the comp's not over till last trading day of the year....3 months nearly down 9 to go..heaps a time for my picks
as for a $50 silver bet well after winning 2 years running I thought I'd give you a better chance
Here's something from Barron's indicating gold is overpriced.
Wells Capital Management’s Jim Paulsen takes a few different yardsticks to the price of gold. His conclusion: “[T]he price of gold on a relative basis is either nearing or is at one of its highest valuations of the last 50 years.” To wit, a few of his observations:
Work: It took less than 20 hours of work in 2000 at the average hourly wage rate to buy an ounce of gold. Today, the same figure is 90 hours. “In a similar fashion, the price of gold relative to the basket of consumer goods and services comprising the Consumer Price Index is near its all-time record high reached in the early 1980s.”
Stocks: “Relative to stocks, gold is almost as expensive today as it was in the late 1970s when the price of gold had surged after its peg was eliminated and after the stock market was ravished by a decade of runaway inflation.”
Bonds: “[T]he price of gold currently trades near an all-time post-war record high surpassing its old relative valuation record established in the late 1980s when bonds were incredibly cheap.
Homes: “Although the price of gold relative to U.S. homes is not yet as high as it reached in the late 1970s, its current relative valuation compared to house prices leaves little optimism about the future potential for gold prices.”
Other commodities: “[T]he price of gold is nearing its all-time record relative price reached in the late 1980s. Even though commodity prices in general have increased significantly in the last decade, the price of gold has risen even more dramatically.”
Fear: “Surprisingly, since 2000, the price of gold has only significantly outpaced other commodity prices during a few months in late 2008 when the ‘Great Financial Crisis’ erupted. Between 2000 and late 2008, the relative price of gold to other commodities remained flat at about 1.5 implying both gold prices and other commodity prices rose by equal amounts during the period. Similarly, the relative price of gold was also unchanged between early 2009 and today.”
For what it’s worth, gold settled today at its third straight loss and is now nearly 13% below the late-August record settle high. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is down 0.1% at $161.33 in late-Thursday trading.
elZorro
03-04-2012, 07:11 AM
Not so sure about gold, Skol, maybe shares are still overpriced. The Dow/Gold ratio still has some room to go to match previous dips, and it doesn't usually turn around quickly. It has bounced up off its trendline in the last few months, but if it corrects back to the trendline, most stocks will be in trouble.
Skol has not found a good counter argument for the Dow/Gold ratio? :) If nothing else, waiting for the right part of this long-term cycle is a recipe for making easier money from stocks. It's fairly hard at the moment.
As Jon Nadler prognosis are mostly always wrong ..I won't be losing any sleep
Gold's in another 'smackdown' after the Fed minutes release, amongst another raft of bearish data for gold, the HUI getting massacred again.
I think it might be all over JB, one chartist predicting a 'sudden drop'.
I think it might be all over JB, one chartist predicting a 'sudden drop'.
The sudden drop's here, $1618. Silver $31.
One commentator on Fox saying 'avoid gold'.
elZorro
05-04-2012, 07:56 AM
The sudden drop's here, $1618. Silver $31.
One commentator on Fox saying 'avoid gold'.
From the Goldmoney Newsdesk:
The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March 13 meeting were released yesterday. Though they again emphasised the Fed’s intention to keep rates “at exceptionally low levels through late 2014”, the absence of any QE3 indicators was what the market focused on, with stocks, commodities and bonds all selling off, while the US dollar rallied. The gold price lost over $40 (2.25%) in a matter of minutes after the news at 13:00 EDT, though the silver price held up better than gold – only down around 1.45%.
The weary predictability of all this becomes tiresome, and is summed up nicely by this graphic from ZeroHedge. Rest assured that the big picture as far as US monetary policy is concerned hasn’t changed. Real interest rates in developed countries will remain in negative territory for years to come, something that Casey Research’s Jeff Clark says will encourage more gold buying. In his words:
. . . . When real interest rates are at or below zero, cash or debt instruments (like bonds) cease being effective because the return is lower than inflation. In these cases, the investment is actually losing purchasing power – regardless of what the investment pays. An investor's interest thus shifts to assets that offer returns above inflation… or at least a vehicle where money doesn't lose value. Gold is one of the most reliable and proven tools in this scenario.
So when you hear talk of economic recovery leading to higher interest rates, and how this is bearish for gold and precious metals, consider real interest rates instead. In particular, the real return on 10-year US Treasurys. In the words of Forbes contributing author Victor Sperandeo, eventually the “long run” that Keynes so famously disparaged catches up with you.
Oil's dropped back a bit too, but until it's a lot lower I can't see the developed world getting back into their old manufacturing and service industries. Without higher employment on good incomes, this tightening up effect ultimately affects shares.
Pumice
05-04-2012, 10:07 AM
Skol, JBmurc, Skol, JBmurc, Skol, JBmurc, Skol, JBmurc, Skol, JBmurc, Skol, ElZorro, Skol, Skol, ElZorro, PUMICE!!!
On a more serious note, what do the Gold bulls think of the dwindling odds on QE3?
Turning point in Gold, or just a minor setback?
I’m glad my USD is starting to show some value again. Let’s hope it mirrors gold’s run over the last few years. (At a guess, I’m thinking its only Skol that is the other person long USD)
Despite what oddballs like Marc Faber say (QE1, QE2,QE3, QE58 etc,) it's not gonna happen, they're taking the training wheels off and it's one way gold - down.
The USD is still the world's reserve currency and will continue to be.
JBmurc
05-04-2012, 10:56 AM
Well have sold down some of my gold share positions more so to diverse into the likes of AGS -U308 VIL-OIl gas
I don't think the gold bull trend is over but if it keeps falling sub 1500 then T/A wise it will be.... I've been bullish since the $500-600oz days
unlike others that have been wrong for years calling it's demise on every pull-back I wait till it broken it's 10yr+ trend before I believe the growth of the price is over...
This of course means the inverse that I would be believing the USD printing and inflation will stay low going forward (highly Fn unlikely)
drillfix
05-04-2012, 11:52 AM
Well have sold down some of my gold share positions more so to diverse into the likes of AGS -U308 VIL-OIl gas
I think you should have done that a long time ago JB, regardless of pog or oil so you can have a bit more balance into the equation.
Good Stuff~!
JBmurc
05-04-2012, 12:13 PM
I think you should have done that a long time ago JB, regardless of pog or oil so you can have a bit more balance into the equation.
Good Stuff~!
Well I've been trading Gold shares for many many years the likes of TRY,IAU,DIO,SBM etc so having no gold/silver shares would be weird for me currently I'm weighted 35% Gold/Silver shares to the rest of my interests made up of U308,OIL&GAS,REO,base metals
I'm happy to continue to hold the likes of CVR PXG neither are expensive at current Gold price
Lipper Indexes and Mutual Fund reports in the latest Barron's at the end of the 1st quarter confirm what most of us probably know.
Gold funds are the worst performing for the quarter, -7.4% and worst for the last year, -20.4%.
The last time the HUI was at its current level gold was about $1100, so something's gonna give.
Gold losing glitter as investors turn away
5:30 AM Monday Apr 9, 2012
The price of gold, which has been rising for years, seems to be going down. Photo / AP
The price of gold, which has climbed for years like a blood pressure reading for anxious investors, plunged last week to its lowest level in three months.
Gold fell almost US$58 ($70) to US$1614 ($1969) per ounce. It has declined 15 per cent since September, when it hit a peak of US$1907 ($2327). It had more than doubled since the financial crisis three years earlier.
Surprisingly, the fall came on an ugly day in the stock market as the Dow Jones industrial average lost 125 points. Last year, a day like Wednesday would have caused fearful investors to buy gold as a protective investment.
"It's difficult to forecast, but I think the gold bull market is over," said Cetin Ciner, a professor of finance at the University of North Carolina-Wilmington. He likened the surge in gold to dot-com stocks before they collapsed.
Some investors buy gold as a hedge against inflation, and minutes from a Federal Reserve meeting that came out on Tuesday afternoon suggested that the central bank believes inflation remains under control.
Gold's attraction as an asset of refuge during crises also seems to have diminished. The economy has picked up, and worst-case scenarios in the United States and Europe have faded.
"Fear has been gold's best friend, and so to the extent that fear is dissipating, gold should fall," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. "We might look back at these Fed minutes as the line in the sand."
Gold has been hit in recent weeks by striking gold sellers in India, the world's largest buyer of physical gold, who are upset over Government tariffs. Another bearish sign was a surge on Wednesday in the dollar, which tends to rise when gold falls.
Gold fetched only US$300 to US$400 ($366 to $488) an ounce during the 1990s but climbed steadily last decade. By late 2008, it was near US$900 ($1098). It took off after that fall when prices for stocks and corporate bonds plunged, wiping out years of savings. Investors bid up prices for the safest of assets, like US Treasury bonds. Others turned to gold.
"During our bout with Armageddon, people ran to it for safety," said Abraham Bailin, a commodity analyst at Morningstar. "It might sound silly now, but that's where it started."
Demand for gold also surged as the Federal Reserve bought bonds, starting in the spring of 2009, to push down borrowing costs and stimulate the economy, a move known as quantitative easing.
The Fed's efforts to pump money into the banking system and avert a deep recession led to fears of runaway inflation, a concern shared by the tea party and big-shot investors.
Buying gold soon became a political statement. For those who didn't trust financial institutions or were wary of the Government, it was the investment of choice. The television personality Glenn Beck advised viewers to stock up on gold bars. "Gold became a symbol of your political leanings," Bailin said. "It became a way to speculate on the solvency of the economy."
Or perhaps to speculate that the price would continue to rise, whatever the reason. Some analysts, like Ciner and Paulsen, said that as the price climbed ever higher, everyday investors may have been trying to catch the wave.
Gold was named the "best investment" in CNBC's quarterly survey of investors released last month, topping real estate and stocks by a wide margin. Nearly half of those surveyed considered it a bad time to buy stocks.
One popular vehicle for buying gold, the SPDR Gold Trust, a fund that trades on the open market like a stock, has attracted hundreds of millions of dollars of investor money each month since its launch in 2004.
It now holds US$67.3 billion ($82.1 billion) worth of gold. That makes it the largest ETF except for the SPDR S&P 500, which tracks stocks, according to Morningstar's Bailin.
Ciner noted that the price of gold dropped on Wednesday despite news that Spain had to offer unexpectedly high interest rates to attract investors to buy new Government bonds. That suggested that the European debt troubles are far from over, normally a trigger for buying gold, not selling it.
"It's pretty obvious that gold's character has completely changed," Ciner said. "If it was a real safe-haven asset, you would have expected investors to flock to gold."
Some commentators say gold's popularity reflects a widespread skepticism of the financial system and national currencies and investors are fools to feel confident about them.
John Manley, chief equity strategist for Wells Fargo Advantage Funds, said gold's role as a sort of fourth currency to the three big ones - the dollar, euro and yen - was unlikely to diminish because of those currencies' troubles. Those include the US debt, Japan's ageing population and dissent among European countries about how to solve the debt problem there.
Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group, said he thought gold's popularity reflected the anxiety of our age. The price could change, he said, but an ounce of gold was always bound to be worth something. Old stock certificates, he said, could wind up worth no more than toilet paper.
"The gold rush isn't over," he said. "It's just on pause."
JBmurc
09-04-2012, 03:10 PM
Gold rebounds as US data revives easing hopes
April 9, 2012 - 10:56AM
Gold has rebounded after disappointing US employment data revived expectations that the US central bank may ease monetary policy further and helped burnish gold's appeal as an inflation hedge.
Spot gold rose as much as 1 per cent in early hours before easing to $US1642.16 an ounce. US gold gained 0.8 per cent to $US1643.50.
US employers hired far fewer workers in March than in previous months, keeping the door open for the Federal Reserve to provide more monetary support for a still sluggish economy.
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US government debt prices surged on Friday, pushing yields to more than three-week lows after surprisingly weak job growth in March rekindled bets the Federal Reserve would embark on another round of bond purchases to stimulate the economy.
China is due to release its inflation data for March, which likely edged up to 3.3 per cent from 3.2 per cent in the previous month, lifted by volatile vegetable prices and higher energy costs.
Money managers, including hedge funds and other large speculators, cut their bullish bets on US gold futures and options in the week ended April 3, said US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Jewellers in India called off their three-week-old strike on Saturday, an industry official said, on assurances from Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee that the government would consider scrapping a budget proposal to levy excise duty on unbranded jewellery.
Reuters
JBmurc
09-04-2012, 03:22 PM
China to Maintain Golden Focus
By Robin Bromby
The Australian, Sydney
Monday, April 9, 2012
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/china-to-maintain-golde...
It was just the tip of the iceberg. We're talking about last week's move by Zijin Mining Group to launch a $299 million bid for Norton Gold Fields, which operates the Paddington goldmine near Kalgoorlie.
There was some surprise expressed at this. While Chinese companies have been snapping up bulk and base metals projects around the world, it was generally thought they had little interest in picking up gold projects.
Think again. A very reliable source close to several gold companies tells us Chinese interests are not only taking stakes in explorers and miners, they are also buying gold directly from producers and shipping it home.
There is much talk in gold bug circles in the United States that the recent purchase by the Bank of International Settlements of more than 4 tonnes of gold may have been wholly or in part on behalf of the People's Bank of China.
Our source is quite clear on one thing: The move on NGF is just the beginning. China wants more gold and it doesn't want to pay full market price for it (as it doesn't for any mineral) so it will be looking to pick up more Australian gold producers and add the yellow metal to its existing central bank gold pile.
Not something the Perth Mint will be happy to hear.
Chinese interests took control last year at Laverton-area goldminer A1 Minerals, now renamed Stone Resources after its Hong Kong parent.
That parent took an unsuccessful lunge also at Crescent Gold. Last year a Chinese consortium spent $US79 million on a 17.7 per cent holding in Gold One International.
Chinese interests spent $80 million to buy the controlling stake in Australian-owned Zara gold project in Eritrea and Yunnan Tin owns 12.3 per cent of YTC Resources, which is developing the Hera goldmine near Cobar in New South Wales.
And Sovereign Gold, which featured here two weeks ago for uncovering long lost shafts on the Rocky River-Uralla goldfield in northern NSW, has subsequently signed up partner Jiangsu Geology & Engineering to pay $4 million to buy 30 per cent of two tenements.
elZorro
10-04-2012, 01:59 PM
From the Moneychanger overnight (turn your olde English filters on):
Oh, mercy, the Bernancubus is speaking in Georgia (the one around Atlanta, not the one around Tblisi) tonight, and markets are all a-moiling, not knowing what he will say. The Moneychanger is a-moiling because no matter what he says, there's no gauging the public's irrational response to it.
Y'all think about this. Y'all are grown people, competent to run your own lives and make generally good choices, but your economic future is chained to this apparatchik's bloviation du jour, because he runs the private bank that manufactures out of thin air the money you must use in your business. Wherefore it is easily seen that it needs only a single moron to mess up the plans of millions of intelligent people, under our present "stabilizing" system.
Let us cut to the bone: no matter what the Bernancubus says, and no matter what the public thinks of it, he will inflate more because he can do no other. Other power hath he none, save to inflate, so he will.
And you can INVEST on that.
Whatever Bernanke said, it seems to be affecting gold in the upwards direction.
http://www.4-traders.com/news/Bernanke-Warns-Of-Risks-In-Money-Market-Funds--14262512/
airedale
10-04-2012, 02:38 PM
Hi Ez, gold moved up slightly overnight going against the trend in the major indices. Perhaps the bottom of the correction is in place.
JBmurc
10-04-2012, 03:09 PM
3931Gold still up 12% on a 1 year basis ...looking at the 10yr chart IMHO currently we are going though another tight trading range like late 07 to mid 09 where the gold price got smashed majority three times off $1000 resistance point ...this time it's 1800 we have had two goes at maybe one more to go before another breakout towards $2000oz .....or if the selling pressure pushes it down below 1500 the beginning of the end of this bull trend?? or will it like last time even after the longer trend down from 1000- to the 700's 25%+ just set it up for a much bigger rise later on...ie 1800 -1350 before the third stage of the bull trend pushes GOLD 3000+ 2014-15 etc
airedale
10-04-2012, 04:58 PM
Hi JB, it still a healthy looking 10 year chart. Another assault on $1800 is very possible.
elZorro
10-04-2012, 06:33 PM
Hi Ez, gold moved up slightly overnight going against the trend in the major indices. Perhaps the bottom of the correction is in place.
Hi airedale, let's hope so (from a goldbug's point of view). USA added only 120,000 jobs in the last month, lower than they were hoping, this didn't help the outlook either, yesterday.
I looked at the long-term gold chart too JB, what we've had for the last few months looks very similar to a pattern from 4 years ago. Oil hasn't dropped back a lot either, another reason to be bullish on the gold price.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/after-gold-rush-the-inevitable-comedown-20120409-1wl23.html
Despite the headline for this article, the text implies the gold price will hold for a long time yet, and gives several reasons. A gold price cost floor of about US $1450, China steadily buying gold for its reserves, inflation, scarcity of new gold, and other factors.
scarcity of new gold
LOL
I thought you would have learned that one by now EZ, there's no shortage and they're digging up stloads more each year.
I was watching a programme the other day, one bucket from the digger = 1 truckload = US$7500 worth of gold.
airedale
10-04-2012, 08:42 PM
Hi Skol, I often wonder why you take such an intense interest in a commodity you are not interested in. There is a missionary like zeal in saving others from their own follies like gold and silver.
Don't worry about us, we can make our own decisions.
Hi Skol, I often wonder why you take such an intense interest in a commodity you are not interested in. There is a missionary like zeal in saving others from their own follies like gold and silver.
Don't worry about us, we can make our own decisions.
I won't be losing a moments sleep if you go bankrupt airedale, but I find it endlessly fascinating why people would buy gold in the first place, even bury it in the garden, almost worship it, and strangest of all say it's running out, the biggest fallacy of the lot.
I've got lots in the stockmarket, gold goes down, stockmarket goes up, keeps me on my toes, I like to know what's going on and the psychology of the goldbugs is a wonder to behold.
It's entertaining, great fun, you find my 'missionary like zeal' interesting, I find the goldbug obsession with Bernanke, the Fed, the New World Order and the infinite conspiracy theories intended to defraud them of what's rightfully theirs enthralling.
Never mind airedale, it's always just around the corner, the ultimate meltdown, where everyone else is poor and the gold bugs are rich, hyperinflation, martial law, nuclear war and the gold standard is resurrected. LOL
airedale
10-04-2012, 08:55 PM
You don't have to look any further back than the post at 3.09 pm today on this thread.
airedale,
I can tell you one thing for sure, the goldbug psychology has changed completely in the last few months, I think some are sitting on big losses, licking their wounds and wondering how they got to be where they are after promises from all the 'experts' that gold would be megabucks.
elZorro
10-04-2012, 11:04 PM
Gold might be on its way down a bit in the short term. Longer term, plenty to commend it.
By the way Skol, one truckload of gold valued at $7500, that's less than 5 oz of gold. You'd need 7 million of those (at the same high grade) to supply the Chinese with just 1,000 tonne of gold, which they might be looking for, plus more, to build up their reserves. The miner probably had to move 15x as much material to get to the payload, their real costs were probably $1450 per ounce. Where's gold going to drop to?
http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/04/gold-prices-are-set-for-further-decline/
JBmurc
10-04-2012, 11:05 PM
airedale,
I can tell you one thing for sure, the goldbug psychology has changed completely in the last few months, I think some are sitting on big losses, licking their wounds and wondering how they got to be where they are after promises from all the 'experts' that gold would be megabucks.
mmmmmm you didn't look at the 10yr chart I take Skol .....if that was a companies chart i.e $250-$1650 a share over the 10yrs would you stay the holders were sitting on big losses ?
STRAT
11-04-2012, 12:41 AM
mmmmmm you didn't look at the 10yr chart I take Skol .....if that was a companies chart i.e $250-$1650 a share over the 10yrs would you stay the holders were sitting on big losses ?About 20%PA. JB.
I think there's some very scared goldbugs out there.
How about the sucker that bought when gold topped out at $1920 or silver at $50 for that matter? The promised land of ultra-riches, Dow/Gold 1:1, the USD being 'confetti' and a multitude of other absurdities hasn't arrived.
Trillions of dollars are going to be lost.
Work it out .
170,000 tonnes X $1920 X 1630/1920 =? Heaps, with more to come, and no dividend.
The goldbug psychology dictates in most instances that they're overexposed, something I've managed to glean from a number of them over the last year or 2, so if there's a 1980 re-run a lot of speculators are going to get burned..
In one instance a guy posted that he'd sold his car, house, everything, and punted the lot on gold - very unwise.
Another told me the other day that unless gold gets off the launch pad, his retirement's going to be pretty grim.
And some of you may remember the post on this thread where a guy who'd buried his gold in the back yard died suddenly and the rest of the family dug all of it up looking for it, without success.
Most of them own 'physical' and hide it because the gubbermint is gonna steal it (that's another story), but physical's very illiquid and not something you can unload with the push of a button.
The catastrophic scenarios and strange conspiracy theories have mostly disappeared, but goldbugs still blame their inability to make the rich list on 'manipulation', a theory for which I haven't seen one scrap of evidence or a class action lawsuit.
There's always going to be people who make bad investment decisions, happens all the time, ponzi schemes, massive credit card debt, overexposure to housing, finance companies, Nigerian scams, and some of these speculators are educated people. One guy even got scammed twice by the Nigerians, some never learn. Even some of the country's richest, Kings College, university educated have been scammed, and they're so rich all they have to do is leave the money in the bank.
A top education is no moral compass or immunity against greed.
A friend of mine with a top degree from university and influential wealthy friends refused to take my advice and is now poverty-stricken after losing her life's savings in the Michael and Jacquie Bradley scandal, court case in August on that one. I can't say I have any sympathy, same as I won't for the goldbugs if history repeats itself.
You can't save people from their own stupidity, read the paper on almost any day and you see tales of woe from people who've made the dumbest decisions you can imagine.
Like the 2 guys in the Waikato who after having a skin full at a late night party decided to go flying in their microlight, at night, in the fog. They crashed and were both killed before they reached the end of the runway.
Unbelievable, but there's no accounting for human nature, it never changes. Human psychology is fascinating.
Debating the goldbugs reminds me constantly to be vigilant over my own finances.
JBmurc
11-04-2012, 09:27 AM
As usual Skol you take the issue to the extreme ,for one I don't even think anyone here even hold's the recommended 10% of nett wealth in physical precious metals ...I myself hold under 5% and would like to increase my silver bullion holding to 3000oz+(my Kiwi saver)but in my view in the short term much of my funds are better of in undervalued growth shares(some of which are Gold/silver plays)....if for some reason I had a heap of spare funds come available I'd be for sure investing a good part into more Bullion...
--How about the sucker that bought when gold topped out at $1920 or silver at $50 for that matter?
--well when you take a look at a long term chart the amount of investors that bought above current prices would be tiny compared to amount well into the money ,I for one brought most of my silver couple years back when silver was in the mid to high teens USD I paid on average $27oz NZD today even with the major pull back the free market price trades well above $40 some even as high as $60
-Unbelievable, but there's no accounting for human nature, it never changes. Human psychology is fascinating.
--Yes I agree when you look through mankinds long history of money never NEVER has Fiat money held its value or even lasted more than human life time...I can't believe with all the currencies wars , money printing ,huge debts ,massive unfunded liabilities we have today that one thinks it will all be OK
JB,
I'll bet that most goldbugs have more than the recommended 5% of their investable assets (not including their own house) in gold or silver, it's the way they think, they're committed to a future without cash, a future that's worse than the Great Depression.
You're probably including your house in your total and you shouldn't.
However that is not to say I don't get some alternative ideas to think about from them because I do.
But slightly off subject here's how some lose their money.
www.businesspundit.com/25-rich-athletes-who-went-broke/
I still think the best one is the bankrupt former NFL player who's paying US$165,000 per annum in child support to seven women with 7 of his children.
JBmurc
11-04-2012, 10:33 AM
And why can't one include their capital value in the house as part of ones investment ,the bank does......you can always sell your property and invest the funds elsewhere and rent etc
as to how to lose money ,,,now if those bright sparks investors had just invested some in bullion they'd least still have some wealth..
It's not only sports stars that go bankrupt after amassing large wealth seen many many property developers here go belly up from mostly being greedy...I find buying bullion as a anti-greed investment you know it going be a long term investment that could well go no-where for years but you buy it with money you have and not leverage 95% etc
airedale
11-04-2012, 10:57 AM
Hi Skol, never mind the psychology. The market is the market. It goes up and down. Over the last 10 years it has had more ups than downs. If it gets back to $250/oz you can say "I told you so". When it goes above $1800 again you can shout "Parabolic" again.
airedale,
I can tell you one thing for sure, the goldbug psychology has changed completely in the last few months, I think some are sitting on big losses, licking their wounds and wondering how they got to be where they are after promises from all the 'experts' that gold would be megabucks.
Hi Skol, never mind the psychology. The market is the market. It goes up and down. Over the last 10 years it has had more ups than downs. If it gets back to $250/oz you can say "I told you so". When it goes above $1800 again you can shout "Parabolic" again.
I have said repeatedly I believe that when gold reverts to the mean it will be $750.
And why can't one include their capital value in the house as part of ones investment ,the bank does......you can always sell your property and invest the funds elsewhere and rent etc
Yes, but you haven't you own a house, and investable assets are generally referred to as assets minus house.
So if you deduct your house what % in pm's do you have then?
JBmurc
11-04-2012, 11:46 AM
Yes, but you haven't you own a house, and investable assets are generally referred to as assets minus house.
So if you deduct your house what % in pm's do you have then?
well thats your point of view ...I haven't heard of people not including property as a investment be it rental or own
A lot more than 5% right, you're overexposed, good luck.
Definition of financial assets.
Financial Assets include cash and bank accounts plus securities and investment accounts that can be readily converted into cash. Excluded are illiquid physical assets such as real estate, automobiles, art, jewelry, furniture, collectibles, etc., which are included in calculations of Net Worth.
Lego_Man
11-04-2012, 01:42 PM
If you included your house you would also have to admit that you have made a conscious decision to allocate a certain % of your net worth to that asset class (NZ Residential Property), and include it in your P/L and portfolio analysis accordingly.
If you bought the house for reasons other than investment (ie you just wanted somewhere to live) it should be excluded from your asset allocation weightings.
It should be excluded because it's not an investment per se, you live in, it doesn't generate an income.
Even if you sold it and re-invested the proceeds only an idiot would invest it in risky assets like gold or silver, or even the stockmarket for that matter, a sudden downturn and you're wiped out.
JBmurc
11-04-2012, 03:09 PM
It should be excluded because it's not an investment per se, you live in, it doesn't generate an income.
Even if you sold it and re-invested the proceeds only an idiot would invest it in risky assets like gold or silver, or even the stockmarket for that matter, a sudden downturn and you're wiped out.
Well my misses runs her beauty business from home so the property does earn a income....the house has it's own self-contained area for this business(two rooms bathroom etc)
Well my misses runs her beauty business from home so the property does earn a income....the house has it's own self-contained area for this business(two rooms bathroom etc)
Then you only include that area of the house she operates her business out of in your financial assets.
JBmurc
11-04-2012, 05:20 PM
Then you only include that area of the house she operates her business out of in your financial assets.
Right so free capital in a house is not a asset ..? ( the bank wouldn't lend me my capital at low morg interest rates for any other investments)
I stated many believe to have 10% of their net worth in the like of Gold/silver bullion is a good idea ,I only have round 5%
Right so free capital in a house is not a asset ..? ( the bank wouldn't lend me my capital at low morg interest rates for any other investments)
I stated many believe to have 10% of their net worth in the like of Gold/silver bullion is a good idea ,I only have round 5%
Take your house off and forget it. How many % then?
JBmurc
11-04-2012, 09:48 PM
Take your house off and forget it. How many % then?
well take the house cap off at current share values my Bullion value has held strong prob round 15% which I'm more than happy..if the shares kick into gear it will drop if you add in my gold/silver shares it lifts it to 40-50% ....
well take the house cap off at current share values my Bullion value has held strong prob round 15% which I'm more than happy..if the shares kick into gear it will drop if you add in my gold/silver shares it lifts it to 40-50% ....
40-50% of your financial assets in gold/silver. If there's a 1980 redux you're going to be heading off to Winz for your Community Services card.
JBmurc
12-04-2012, 09:21 AM
40-50% of your financial assets in gold/silver. If there's a 1980 redux you're going to be heading off to Winz for your Community Services card.
Well for one it's not 1980 ...second my 100k income(outside any investment income) shouldn't mean I'll be heading down to Winz ...the way you go on I guess you have a grey power card
Well I'm over 50, but don't belong to Grey Power, like to do my own thing.
A gold implosion might be closer than you think, the HUI down another 1.25% last night.
Difference between gold and the HUI now 43% over the last 2 years.
JBmurc
12-04-2012, 11:46 PM
There is no indication on gold's long-term chart that its bullmarket is over, it appears to be simply pausing to consolidate after its sharp rise last year. Why should its bullmarket be over when the only solution to the global debt problem is to buy time by creating more debt which makes the problems even worse? It's true that "they" might throw in the occasional deflation scare as an arm twisting measure to justify bailouts and more QE etc, but other than that the course is set firmly in the direction of fiat worthlessness.
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68
'Those that ignore history are destined to repeat it'.
Twice in the 20th century the USA had more debt/GDP than they have now and both times they dug their way out.
The problems are not insoluble and surmising that gold will go to the next solar system because of their debt is guessing.
JBmurc
13-04-2012, 08:39 AM
Strong move in the markets and gold overnight 1675 USD down.....here comes the next move on 1800 IMHO
elZorro
13-04-2012, 08:40 AM
Skol:Twice in the 20th century the USA had more debt/GDP than they have now and both times they dug their way out.
But did they dig themselves out with the help of cheap oil and coal? No such luck this time. They are trying to use cheap overseas labour, but that doesn't help the broad local economy much.
They got themselves out with industrialisation.
When Bernanke announces no QE3 there's gonna be a massacre.
JBmurc
13-04-2012, 10:43 AM
But did they dig themselves out with the help of cheap oil and coal? No such luck this time. They are trying to use cheap overseas labour, but that doesn't help the broad local economy much.
well thats the thing most of major world Manufactures Apple,GE,Ford etc have shifted away from many western countries to the cheap labour lax regs of the india,China,vietnam etc ...thats why we see the jobs numbers looking sick ...most of the new jobs being created in the likes of the US are non-productive i.e gov jobs ...SKOL dreams of the good old USA creating million's of productive jobs is a pipe dream
...SKOL dreams of the good old USA creating million's of productive jobs is a pipe dream
I don't think so, the outsourcing of cheap jobs to China and the like has only been partially successful. Toyota and other companies are building plants in the US and Boeing has moved jobs back home after disasters with faulty manufacturing abroad.
By the way, the latest Barron's obviously doesn't agree with you - headlines.
J P MORGAN LOOKS LIKE A KEEPER.
'Friday's drop on good earnings news seem to be a buying opportunity for the top-quality banking giant.
skeet
14-04-2012, 04:29 PM
Back to the Gold standard? Interesting video here.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=1d4_1334368298&p=1
upside_umop
14-04-2012, 05:22 PM
I can't believe people still think we could go back to the gold standard?
When we were on the gold standard, we were in recession more often than not. I had some graphs earlier in the topic.
What's wrong with printing money? Why be tied to money supply which is based off the geological factors of the earth when this is not correlated to social, political or economic functions of the world?
They talk about all these famous people putting their money into gold - but they're not putting in nearly the proportions that people talk about here. If you want to retain your money in real terms, buy some inflation adjusted treasuries....instead of gambling with something that has volatility of the stock market with a return of less than treasury bonds over the long term.
lakedaemonian
16-04-2012, 08:24 PM
I can't believe people still think we could go back to the gold standard?
When we were on the gold standard, we were in recession more often than not. I had some graphs earlier in the topic.
What's wrong with printing money? Why be tied to money supply which is based off the geological factors of the earth when this is not correlated to social, political or economic functions of the world?
They talk about all these famous people putting their money into gold - but they're not putting in nearly the proportions that people talk about here. If you want to retain your money in real terms, buy some inflation adjusted treasuries....instead of gambling with something that has volatility of the stock market with a return of less than treasury bonds over the long term.
I reckon gold fractional reserve of say 10% within 5-10 years.
All depends on how long the current lopside and flawed international financial system can continue before it strokes out.
I reckon gold fractional reserve of say 10% within 5-10 years.
All depends on how long the current lopside and flawed international financial system can continue before it strokes out.
You've been listening to the gold 'experts' who've been consistently wrong.
Noriel Roubini called the proponents of the gold standard 'lunatics and hacks', rubbishing an 'investment' that has no fundamentals.
We undoubtedly still have a way to go but the worst is behind us.
According to the FT, deleveraging could take another 3 years, if gold was gonna 'go the moon' it would have done it by now.
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