Gold [Archive] - Page 14 - Sharetrader Forum

elZorro

10-11-2011, 09:54 PM

The USD is rising because it doesn't look as crappy (for now) as most other currencies, would be my view.

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2011/11/09/US_Dollar_Surges_as_Investors_Flee_Stock_Blood-_Will_it_Last.html

So while attention is on the European region, the USD$ gold price might drift back a bit. But the buying pressure on any dips remains. If China is intent on backing its own reserves with gold, this could go on for many years yet. Note worldwide gold production is only slowly ramping up, another process that takes years.

Global liquidity drying up? Banks not trusting each other. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204190704577025393360196150.html?m od=WSJ_World_MIDDLENews)

stevo1

11-11-2011, 09:40 AM

A quick check around and I've found goldbugs talking about exposure to the dreaded, hated, defiled, despised, vilified, detested, abhorred, loathed USD.

Can anyone explain this rather odd behaviour or are goldbugs finally waking up to the fact that hyperinflation and the USd 'turning to confetti', as Jim Rogers calls it is all an old wives tale.

Whatcha reckon JB?

Maybe these guys are goldbug 'traitors', and scabs, cracking under the pressure and tacitly admitting there's gold in Fort Knox after all. LOL

Hyperinflation is appearing less likely,BUT sovereign debt defaults are here and now.
Skol is the USA too big to fail?
The main premise of basis of the fiat monetry system is that countries CANNOT go bankrupt well apparently they can and are going that way .
Will the US ?who knows in the meantime where to put your hardearned if currencies arent safe(sovereign debt ,bonds)?We are all in unchartered waters ATM.Lets face it no one really knows what or how this is going to end(my own opinion is rather pessimistic) so a bit of gold and silver as part of a greater diverse stratedgy still seems a sound thing to do.

Skol

11-11-2011, 11:48 AM

JBmurc

11-11-2011, 08:50 PM

Max K---Gold wars LOL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAPM7syIcts

elZorro

11-11-2011, 08:51 PM

Apparently gold, silver and bonds are 'safe'.I won't be putting my dollars anywhere near these 3, they're all at multi-year highs and ready for a fall while shares are cheap. If Warren Buffett thinks it's good enough to throw $24b at shares it's more than likely a good act to follow.

Maybe Buffett has to buy on really bad days for two reasons. It slows up the collapse, which will hold his other equities up a bit, and he also gets the volume he must need when buying a substantial amount. Remember Buffett bought a lot of GEC last time, and it fell further later. I think he negotiated a buy-in special for down the track.

The latest news in Europe is not good. Dark clouds are gathering. (http://business.financialpost.com/2011/11/09/is-the-world-entering-a-lost-decade/)

Skol

12-11-2011, 03:57 AM

So assuming a massive meltdown in Europe doesn't happen, which it won't, what will happen to the POG then?

Huang Chung

12-11-2011, 07:43 AM

So assuming a massive meltdown in Europe doesn't happen, which it won't, what will happen to the POG then?

You'll only know that Europe avoids a massive meltdown in hindsight. Even if it avoids a massive meltdown, it can remain at, or close to the brink, for months or years. There will be no quick fixes.

US seems to be doing a bit better, but they still aren't creating jobs. Meanwhile, their debt mounts. You'd almost be forgiven for thinking everything is rosy in the US, but everybody is fixated on Europe right now, so the US woes are off the front page.....for now.

Meanwhile, gold remains an alternate store of wealth.

elZorro

12-11-2011, 08:38 AM

That's how I feel about it too, HC. Skol could be part of the problem, keeping planes in the air and so using up what may be precious fuel reserves, when what is required is a back-to-basics approach to living. Here in Hamilton (on the outskirts) we have the McGillicuddy Clan, who promote a "Great Leap Backwards" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party) into feudal times (http://paradise.gen.nz/~simeon/alfs/mgsp.html). I'm not sure the leader has had a proper job since leaving university 25 years ago, but that's beside the point.

Meanwhile the Dow/Gold ratio continues to drop.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2011/08/19/dowgold-ratio-lowest-since-1987-crash/

STRAT

12-11-2011, 09:03 AM

Meanwhile the Dow/Gold ratio continues to drop.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2011/08/19/dowgold-ratio-lowest-since-1987-crash/Hi EZ.
The chart in that link of the Gold/Dow ratio would seem to indicate that the 1987 crash was nothing more than a blip in the rise of stock value against gold. Is this indicating that gold is not a safe haven from a markrt crash?

Skol

12-11-2011, 09:03 AM

That's how I feel about it too, HC. Skol could be part of the problem, keeping planes in the air and so using up what may be precious fuel reserves, when what is required is a back-to-basics approach to living.

I'm happy to report that the airline business is going very well indeed and aircraft are mostly full, so the majority are not hunkering down waiting for Armageddon, they're enjoying themselves and spending money.

I was in San Francisco on the ferry a while back, it was full of Italians, so it's not as bad as everyone thinks, the world is proceeding quite normally in many respects.

There is terrific demand for aircraft and qualified staff. I read the other day that there is a requirement for 550,000 pilots by 2020.

elZorro

12-11-2011, 09:21 AM

Hi EZ.
The chart in that link of the Gold/Dow ratio would seem to indicate that the 1987 crash was nothing more than a blip in the rise of stock value against gold. Is this indicating that gold is not a safe haven from a markrt crash?

Sorry Strat, I'm slow replying, was looking at Big Muffin Serious Band video clips. But I take your point. The Dow/Gold ratio chart (latest one was linear in format by the look of it) might head back in the other direction at some stage, and it could be dramatic. But note that the ratio usually drops back to about 2, a TA guy like Hoop (also of Hamilton fame) can draw that in. So as the ratio is currently at 6.79, what does this mean for the gold price, and unfortunately, for stocks, if it happens once again, before the worldwide recovery?

And the worldwide recovery will happen when...a whole lot of cash is printed off...huge debts are written off...we all work three times as hard but accept half the return...or some bright sods find us all some cheap energy again.

Skol: There is terrific demand for aircraft and qualified staff. I read the other day that there is a requirement for 550,000 pilots by 2020.

Over half a million pilots? The world has gone mad. It must be a bubble. Airline outlook for 2012 (http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/09/20/11/iata-ups-2011-airlines-profit-outlook-2012-weak)

elZorro

15-11-2011, 07:27 AM

Signs are looking good as gold.

http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2011/Nov/14/Gold-s-getting-its-lustre-back (http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2011/Nov/14/Gold-s-getting-its-lustre-back)

Skol

15-11-2011, 07:37 PM

Signs are looking good as gold.

http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2011/Nov/14/Gold-s-getting-its-lustre-back (http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2011/Nov/14/Gold-s-getting-its-lustre-back)

Well my conservative selection of Aussie shares was up 16% last month, so that's not too bad, like the birds, gold's headed south for the winter I reckon.

Helped a little by the NZD/AUD.

elZorro

15-11-2011, 09:45 PM

Well my conservative selection of Aussie shares was up 16% last month, so that's not too bad, gold's headed south for the northern winter I reckon.

Helped a little by the NZD/AUD.

I found this article (http://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/why-gold-should-set-new-highs-for-the-holiday%e2%80%99s/) as a reply Skol (actually it should rise between now and Christmas)..

Lizard

15-11-2011, 10:04 PM

And the worldwide recovery will happen when...a whole lot of cash is printed off...huge debts are written off...we all work three times as hard but accept half the return...or some bright sods find us all some cheap energy again.

Maybe true for Europe and the US, but will it be true for Hamilton, NZ? Are (hyper)inflation and or deflation necessarily (or even likely to be) global phenomena. Seems to me we could see deflation followed by inflation in both Europe and NZ - but that NZ could be delayed by 2-5 years.... so in terms of investment strategy, NZD (and AUD and other Asian currencies) might well be fine to hold while Europe inflates and then swap the trade.

Maybe also for now the neutral NZD period while Europe deflates a while longer, when holding NZ/AU/Asian equities might beat holding cash and fixed interest for a bit, until deflation squeeze hits here because we too run out of fiscal headroom to stimulate locally against global weakness without creating excessive debt.

Thoughts?

elZorro

15-11-2011, 10:32 PM

Maybe true for Europe and the US, but will it be true for Hamilton, NZ? Are (hyper)inflation and or deflation necessarily (or even likely to be) global phenomena. Seems to me we could see deflation followed by inflation in both Europe and NZ - but that NZ could be delayed by 2-5 years.... so in terms of investment strategy, NZD (and AUD and other Asian currencies) might well be fine to hold while Europe inflates and then swap the trade.

Maybe also for now the neutral NZD period while Europe deflates a while longer, when holding NZ/AU/Asian equities might beat holding cash and fixed interest for a bit, until deflation squeeze hits here because we too run out of fiscal headroom to stimulate locally against global weakness without creating excessive debt.

Thoughts?

Hi Lizard, I'm doing my best at work to make a dollar against global weakness, so I have high aspirations for my investment dollars. I'm still keen on the theory of a goldie multi-bagger eventually. Meanwhile I would be better off with money in any bank earning low interest, or using it at work. But I know as soon as I pull the money out, my old shares will take off.

What do you think of the big theory I have (OK, I think I pinched it from many others) that all of the world's troubles are related to the current cost of energy in all its forms?

Lizard

16-11-2011, 07:39 AM

What do you think of the big theory I have (OK, I think I pinched it from many others) that all of the world's troubles are related to the current cost of energy in all its forms?

Actually, I'm pretty relaxed about the "world's troubles", which in many parts of the world are far less than they were in the 80's and 90's. I think we should be celebrating this much-needed period of adjustment. I actually don't think the answers are that difficult any more - just slow to implement and a bit of a balancing act.

Yes, energy cost is an important factor in regaining a happy equilibrium again. Longer term, other resource shortages will be more critical.

For me, much of the adjustments we are facing relate to the period in which we have finally allowed Asia the opportunity to join us in the developed world.... it's been a very rapid period of change and the speed tends to create more extreme imbalances, including in energy costs. Overall though, this has been a big step in the right direction for human rights. Naturally it means that we can't expect to benefit as much from outsourced slavery. We need to return our focus to our own productivity if we want to maintain our living standards in the face of this adjustment. We may also want to make some compromises in our living standards - allow the carpet to get a little more threadbare... I love beautiful things as much as the next girl, but I'm all for ditching the "Home & Garden" obsession.

Skol

16-11-2011, 08:25 AM

STRAT

16-11-2011, 09:11 AM

, other resource shortages will be more critical.

.Hi Liz.
I smell opportunity in that remark :D

Lizard

16-11-2011, 09:59 AM

Hi Liz.
I smell opportunity in that remark :D

It may be a very long-dated opportunity.... :)

elZorro

16-11-2011, 11:01 AM

Actually, I'm pretty relaxed about the "world's troubles", which in many parts of the world are far less than they were in the 80's and 90's. I think we should be celebrating this much-needed period of adjustment. I actually don't think the answers are that difficult any more - just slow to implement and a bit of a balancing act.

Yes, energy cost is an important factor in regaining a happy equilibrium again. Longer term, other resource shortages will be more critical.

For me, much of the adjustments we are facing relate to the period in which we have finally allowed Asia the opportunity to join us in the developed world.... it's been a very rapid period of change and the speed tends to create more extreme imbalances, including in energy costs. Overall though, this has been a big step in the right direction for human rights. Naturally it means that we can't expect to benefit as much from outsourced slavery. We need to return our focus to our own productivity if we want to maintain our living standards in the face of this adjustment. We may also want to make some compromises in our living standards - allow the carpet to get a little more threadbare... I love beautiful things as much as the next girl, but I'm all for ditching the "Home & Garden" obsession.

Interesting Liz, I hadn't thought too much about that big factor, China/India and their labour pool. The long-term shortage of resources is tied to energy though, if you think about it. If power was really cheap, you could desalinate seawater and pump it inland anywhere you needed it. You could use as much fuel as you liked to extract minerals and metals from the earth, and so on. More of everyone's earnings would be available for retail spending, etc. Of course, the whole thing about the ethics of being on the consumer treadmill, that's a different question.

elZorro

16-11-2011, 11:06 AM

I keep hearing all the time that things are tough. I'm waiting for a painter (new year), 2 quotes for a garage door and opener, some fencing, some serious plumbing work, and a factory door installation (which I 've been working on since March).

I keep hearing how busy they all are. The aircraft are full, what's going on?

Times are tough? I doubt it.

I run a 5 month moving average of my aussie shares and when it crosses over the actual value there's generally some serious money to be made or lost.
The actual value crossed over the moving average last month which means good news.

Good news in the sharemarket probably means bad news for gold.

Hi Skol, my urban neighbour has tradespeople doing electrical work, gardening, building, carpets, driveways, and this is usually in the weekend, even Sundays. You might have to give up on asking for quotes, just pay a bit more perhaps? We all like to pick and choose the work we do, and generally the dollar talks loudest.

CAM

16-11-2011, 01:25 PM

Hi Skol, my urban neighbour has tradespeople doing electrical work, gardening, building, carpets, driveways, and this is usually in the weekend, even Sundays. You might have to give up on asking for quotes, just pay a bit more perhaps? We all like to pick and choose the work we do, and generally the dollar talks loudest.

It probably depends where and who you are. The better trades people always seem to be the busiest...funny that huh.
Maybe the ones that weren't so good have gone to Aus??...to leave the remainder somewhat busy.
Anecdotal evidence from a couple of guys I spoke to in rural Waikato said they were quiet...dead for one of them.
One was a builder the other a kitchen maker. Said they were getting enquiries but no one was committing.
Maybe waiting for the election to pass??

Lizard

16-11-2011, 04:50 PM

Interesting Liz, I hadn't thought too much about that big factor, China/India and their labour pool. The long-term shortage of resources is tied to energy though, if you think about it. If power was really cheap, you could desalinate seawater and pump it inland anywhere you needed it. You could use as much fuel as you liked to extract minerals and metals from the earth, and so on. More of everyone's earnings would be available for retail spending, etc. Of course, the whole thing about the ethics of being on the consumer treadmill, that's a different question.

The consumer treadmill in itself is not really an ethical question beyond the very-long-term under-pricing of resources and the geographical imbalances in labour values. The rest is market forces and all fine - the level of consumption vs production that is desirable after that is up to the individual taste.

The issue of fuel has been more about a sudden increase in pricing of oil and fossil fuels in particular. That process happened almost "overnight" relative to the other changes that drove it... but in reality, I paid around $1/litre for fuel for many, many years and now pay around twice that - maybe still a little less... but it is still less than the income for a comparable job rose by over the same period, despite big increases in levies and taxes that came on top of the oil price. Off-setting the change is also the fact my car will now go further on it and my home heat pump is more efficient than the radiant heater was....

Yes, energy costs have gone up, but the amount they have gone up over the long term is not remarkable, only over this period of adjustment. Furthermore, the world is less energy constrained than we tend to think - fossil fuels are constrained, but we have an unlimited source of energy coming at us from the Sun and associated forces that also cause tides, winds and waves. And that's without tapping nuclear. It will take time to move across and for pricing to adjust, but I think the process of transition has been kick started in the last decade. Maybe it will take even higher energy costs before we get there, but then the cost should fall again.

The labour pool part is actually very relevant - in the past, international policies repressed Asia. However, in the last decade+ they were given considerable leeway - most noticeably in the pegged currency. This seemingly slight tweak to the "free market" has allowed China and some other parts of Asia an economic advantage in production and export. It is being and will continue to be phased out, one way or another.

As for Europe, US and global debt... money has been created out of debt and this is not wrong. However, we have reached unstable debt levels, so in order to obtain monetary stability, we actually need to maintain "money" while destroying the debt on which it was created - and that is "money" in the sense of "the momentum of money" or "money quantity x money velocity". So, since controlling the velocity part of that equation is difficult, we will control the quantity. That effectively means forgiving or writing off debt and yet still compensating creditors in some way with newly printed money... yet, managed carefully, this money will only be paying for the inflation we have already had from debt and velocity increases. i.e. the aim is to avoid both future deflation and hyper-inflation. A fine line and hard to control, since velocity tends to get out of control.

So yes, at this stage, it is all about seeing if governments can walk that line. And, in doing so, how much debt they choose to allow to be forgiven and how much capital sacrifice they demand from creditors (a deflationary effect) in the process and how much they print (an inflationary effect) to fill the gap...

...or at least that is the "simple housewife" version of the monetary world today.

drillfix

16-11-2011, 05:06 PM

Having read that Liz, are you sure your not the Finance minister of NZ or something? LOL

All I can say is great post there Liz.

Oh, although one point from the 2nd last paragraph,

As for Europe, US and global debt... money has been created out of debt and this is not wrong.

Should that not be worded this is not Right? (rather than not wrong)?

Again, superb post.

elZorro

16-11-2011, 05:46 PM

Yes, great post Liz. I wish I had done economics at college. Perhaps I should get a book out. I read somewhere else on ST that governments don't need to tax their subjects for income. They could of course, print the money. The tax is needed to create some value for the currency. Is this what you mean, a fine line beween printing, forgiving and taxing to create the stable illusion, or a stable reality?

Regarding energy costs: not so much how it hits our pockets, but perhaps the profits that are involved. I did note a short while ago, an uncanny correlation of the Dow market long-term, superimposed over the major oil finds in the states. While they were pumping lots of oil, their market boomed. And then it started crashing as the oil ran out. Everyone made a lot of money for a while, on cheap oil energy. It must have flowed throughout every enterprise. Might be oversimplifying the situation. Cheers.

Lizard

16-11-2011, 07:06 PM

Having read that Liz, are you sure your not the Finance minister of NZ or something? LOL

Just the NZ laundry queen according to my brood... :D

And, no - fiat money absolutely has to be created out of debt. This is NOT wrong. We just overdid and now either retreat and deflate or sterilise the debt in some (yet to be agreed) mechanism and make the "now" the new equilibrium.

Lizard

16-11-2011, 07:21 PM

Yes, great post Liz. I wish I had done economics at college.

There's not much you need to do at college any more unless you need to bluff your way into a job. The keys to the real university all have a www. prefix.

And no, I don't have a problem with tax. Just that financial stability is undermined by inflation or deflation. If the value of money is to remain near-stable in a free market (and we tend to opt for a degree of mild inflation), then there is some adjustments required to "quantity of money" - and that quantity isn't even measurable by M1, M3 or anything else as far as I can see... but the optimum amount for stability will vary with population, productivity, debt and velocity. Maybe we could just give everyone a lump sum at birth to cope with #1! But the natural tendency in a growing population with growing productivity seems to me to be deflation. Extrapolating (at this point) I would presume that inflation has occurred through growth in indebtedness and velocity, but maybe I've stretched the logic too far for one day....

And yes, finally on energy - the resources of a nation are its labour and its natural resources... of course it is possible to be temporarily wealthy by hurrying the extraction of unsustainable resources. I have vague memories that Nauru was the richest country per capita in the world when I was young... likewise, imo, we in NZ should extract our fossil fuels in balance with the value we consume... until we find it cheaper to use other alternatives.

Skol

16-11-2011, 09:33 PM

And yes, finally on energy - the resources of a nation are its labour and its natural resources... of course it is possible to be temporarily wealthy by hurrying the extraction of unsustainable resources. I have vague memories that Nauru was the richest country per capita in the world when I was young... likewise, imo, we in NZ should extract our fossil fuels in balance with the value we consume... until we find it cheaper to use other alternatives.

Correct about Nauru, I used to spend some time there in the early '70's. There were Ferraris and Falcon GTHO's off the side of the road on the reef, even though the road around the island was only 12 miles long. I have memories of the locals wandering down the road counting wads of AUD, now the place is one of the most poverty-stricken with the worst rate of diabetes on Earth.

We might run out of phosphate but we'll never run out of oil, same as we'll never run out of gold or silver.

corran

17-11-2011, 02:09 AM

We might run out of phosphate but we'll never run out of oil, same as we'll never run out of gold or silver.

Why do you think phosphate will be any different from silver or oil Skol? All are non-renewable resources, all are consumed. We're never going to completely run out of any of them but the more we extract the more scarce they will become.

Skol

17-11-2011, 06:56 AM

Why do you think phosphate will be any different from silver or oil Skol? All are non-renewable resources, all are consumed. We're never going to completely run out of any of them but the more we extract the more scarce they will become.

Goldbugs say we'll run out of gold and silver but it'll never happen, there's too much of it. They just keep finding more, like oil, the norwegians have just found an 'elephant' oil field a couple of metres away from a 'duster' drilled in the early '70's. We're supposed have run out of oil years ago but it hasn't happened, nor will it.

elZorro

17-11-2011, 08:10 AM

Very funny Skol. I think you'll find your aircraft will be running on biodiesel-based fuels within 10 years.

JBmurc

17-11-2011, 07:27 PM

"Enormous Consolidation" Expected In Gold Mining In 2012

By Justin Dove, Investment U Research

In late September, Dr. Mark Skousen wrote about why the gold mining sector was lagging after a major run by the precious metal.

He cited precious metals’ expert Rick Rule on the five reasons the sector was currently struggling and then four reasons why it was due for a major rebound. Of those four reasons, number two and three especially stand out:

“2. Top mining companies are finally generating dramatically higher profit margins. Free cash flow is now “gushing” and will double in the next year as huge capital investments by the majors pay off.

“3. Expect enormous consolidation as majors start buying up smaller producers, at startling premiums to current market prices.”

Now that we’re in November, we’re starting to see strong evidence of this beginning to happen.

“Massive” Industry Consolidation to Continue

According to Global Mining Finance, “Mining M&As accounted for five percent of the total deals done this year, a figure not seen since the heady days of 2006.” And Bloomberg data found that gold takeovers in the second quarter, valued at $20 billion, was the most in at least 10 years.

Ernst & Young reported in October that during the nine months of 2011, there were 779 M&A transactions with a value of $132 billion. That’s a 67-percent increase over first nine months of 2010!

And even more is expected through 2013…

Bloomberg recently reported that BlackRock Inc., “which manages $36 billion in natural resources funds, expects the ‘massive’ industry consolidation in mining to continue, driven by low valuations of companies.”

The article also cites a report by Standard Chartered, which predicts the six largest miners will have collectively amassed $144 billion in cash by the end of 2013.

“You’ve got falling earnings, you’ve got compressed multiples, most of mining companies are trading under replacement costs,” Pengana Global Resources Fund’s Ric Ronge told Bloomberg. “There are definitely opportunities. The market is pretty much ripe for consolidation.”

Bottom Line

The persistence of Europe’s problems, increasing possibilities of more money-printing and growing demand from Asia should keep margins quite high for miners. This should start to majorly affect the bottom lines of these companies in 2012 and beyond.

Keep an eye on mid-sized and junior mining companies with strong newer projects that may be attractive to the bigger mining companies. When older mines start to dry out, these companies will need to find fresher ones. With large injections of cash and relatively low valuations on mining companies, the easiest way may be to buy up a smaller operation.

JBmurc

17-11-2011, 07:47 PM

Very funny Skol. I think you'll find your aircraft will be running on biodiesel-based fuels within 10 years.

bioDiesel would think more likely Ethanol ?

Skol

17-11-2011, 07:52 PM

JBmurc

17-11-2011, 09:01 PM

I'd like to see a jet engine run on diesel, you might be doing a bit of swimming. I think Jet A1 will do the trick meantime, but getting back to gold the XGD and gold shares have proved to be dogs, even boring shares like TLS have given them a thrashing, even more if you include the dividend.

See how boring you think Gold shares are next year when gold smashing through 2,000oz can't stay down for much longer with the cash flowing in ....I be sure to keep you well imformed
p.s -whats the bet for 2012 skol not long now till i take yet another $100 off you

Gold above 2000oz ?? end of 2012

corran

17-11-2011, 09:08 PM

...but getting back to gold the XGD and gold shares have proved to be dogs....

If we're talking dogs you should check out the airline index (XAL). Down roughly 30% over the last year (GLD up 30%). Down close on 50% over the last 5 years, GLD up 200%.

Skol

17-11-2011, 09:08 PM

See how boring you think Gold shares are next year when gold smashing through 2,000oz can't stay down for much longer with the cash flowing in ....I be sure to keep you well imformed
p.s -whats the bet for 2012 skol not long now till i take yet another $100 off you

Gold above 2000oz ?? end of 2012

LOL. Hope isn't a good investing strategy.

What happened to the hyperinflation that's supposed to be ravaging the world economy at the moment?

Skol

17-11-2011, 09:14 PM

If we're talking dogs you should check out the airline index (XAL). Down roughly 30% over the last year (GLD up 30%). Down close on 50% over the last 5 years, GLD up 200%.

Check out VBA just recently, bought some a couple of weeks back. TLS beat the XGD by 40% (incl. DY) over the last year.

Stick with it though, apparently there's going to be a massive boom in gold and silver in 2034 according to one link which I put on here.

My ultra-boring collection of aussie shares were up 16% last month, gold's old hat, anyone owning gold and sitting on a decent profit would be well advised to dump it and buy out-of -favour punts.

COLIN

17-11-2011, 09:16 PM

JBmurc

17-11-2011, 09:37 PM

LOL. Hope isn't a good investing strategy.

What happened to the hyperinflation that's supposed to be ravaging the world economy at the moment?

--really your've been hoping gold/silver will crash for the last couple years now LOL ,I just want some kind of fair value to relate to the earning's of some of the producers which IMHO will come along with a new high in the Gold price in the mean time good gold producers are making a mint

drillfix

18-11-2011, 03:09 AM

Looks like gold support @ $1,748.xx has been broken but zipping up and down seeking direction.

Silver too sitting on the weak side also seeking some direction.

Will be interesting waking up tomorrow, thats for sure~!

elZorro

18-11-2011, 07:08 AM

Skol

18-11-2011, 07:24 AM

I have just read that central banks made their largest net purchases of gold in decades, in the September quarter, according to the latest World Gold Council release. They are apparently set to make their largest purchases since Bretton Woods, according to the report. Also of interest is that China has overtaken India as the largest consumer of gold for jewellery.

(I haven't been keeping up with all the cut and thrust on this forum, for a while, but I just couldn't help adding some fuel to the fire, on this thread!)

I wouldn't be placing too much emphasis or betting my hard-earned cash on the integrity or intelligence of central bankers because they can be just as dumb as anyone else.
Take for example Gordon Brown who sold 400 tonnes of Britain's gold reserves at its lowest price for 20 years.

It's estimated to have cost the country 8 billion pounds.

The latest rash of purchases by central bankers shows that they get affected by crowd behaviour just like the rest of the sheeple.

corran

18-11-2011, 09:48 PM

...but getting back to gold the XGD and gold shares have proved to be dogs....

Check out VBA just recently, bought some a couple of weeks back......

...Stick with it though, apparently there's going to be a massive boom in gold and silver in 2034 according to one link which I put on here....

VBA over the last 5 years is down 82%.

GLD over the last 5 years is up 132%.

There's no need to wait for a boom in gold and silver Skol, it's been booming for years. While you've been harping on about the 'gold bubble' some of us have bought and sold and done pretty well. It doesn't make us gold bugs, just jumping on a clear bull market in gold. If it crashes tomorrow I don't care cause I've cashed up a lot of my profits.

Skol

19-11-2011, 07:54 AM

VBA over the last 5 years is down 82%.

GLD over the last 5 years is up 132%.

There's no need to wait for a boom in gold and silver Skol, it's been booming for years. While you've been harping on about the 'gold bubble' some of us have bought and sold and done pretty well. It doesn't make us gold bugs, just jumping on a clear bull market in gold. If it crashes tomorrow I don't care cause I've cashed up a lot of my profits.

That is what I've said all along, if there's a decent profit, take it.

The idea that gold is going to Mars is about as likely as pigs will fly, and I wonder when gold fatigue will set in and the goldbugs lose their patience. It will probably take a while. All the bunkum I've read about hyperinflation, the global economic meltdown, gold being a 'currency', that the USD will be 'confetti' according to Jim Rogers, defies belief, but there's a true following of goldbugs who'll ride this wave - all the way down probably.

You will notice the goldbugs have been pretty quiet lately, you still get the odd 'Fort Knox is empty' crank when there's not much to talk about but the Weimar Republic crap and some of the more extreme posters seem to have disappeared.

It's absurd that the gold standard will be re-instated, that gold is going to $10,000 or $100,000 an ounce or that silver's going to $150.

Over the last 5 years the XGD is up 68%, an average of 13% p.a., which is not bad, but doesn't equate to the risk, when gold has gone up 132%.

Skol

19-11-2011, 12:48 PM

I've had a small construction project under way. Every contractor or supplier that turns up I ask them how business is. The usual answer is steady and probably improving, main problem is there's no new building going on. When it takes months to get a resource consent that's hardly surprising.

I organised a builder to carry out some minor finishing framing -up and called him yesterday to set a date. he said that 3 weeks ago he had hardly any work, now he's booked up until November next year and taken on a new apprentice.

The world is not ending.

JBmurc

19-11-2011, 04:03 PM

As reported today in Caijing. Chinese Gold demand this year may top 750 tons. The Western nations just do not get it. They will print and print and print, sending bad price signals into the markets. Autobot computers and Hedge Funds trading on momentum will will drive prices down with naked shorts. But on every dip, the Chinese will continually and quietly take the physical stuff off the market. One day, the paper exchanges will crash and someone will realize their is no more Gold and Silver…. in the U.S. at least.(comex)

http://english.caijing.com.cn/2011-11-18/111420539.html

elZorro

21-11-2011, 08:56 PM

On Equedia today (http://equedia.com/blog/view.php/Dont-Sweat-the-Correction-in-Gold), interesting charts. These could be used to take easy bets off Skol..

Pumice

21-11-2011, 11:50 PM

A breach of $1700
Starting to breakdown a bit here guys.

Skol

22-11-2011, 06:59 AM

drillfix

22-11-2011, 01:22 PM

A breach of $1700
Starting to breakdown a bit here guys.

Dont think I am too worried here at present there Pumice.

Gold is just trading in the expected range, with the exception of now price is in the Mid part of the range.

Should a breach of 1616 or 1606 come into play then I certainly will act accordingly, and I would also then encourage others to think about their positions then~!

JBmurc

23-11-2011, 10:02 AM

yeah also not stressing here even though many of my Gold/silver stocks have been sold off as though the gold price was going south of $1000oz .. in reality the ASX producers I hold are selling their product at a current price of $1725oz/32oz AUD start of the year we were 1200-1300 25-27.....so their doing much better

Skol

23-11-2011, 08:06 PM

On Equedia today (http://equedia.com/blog/view.php/Dont-Sweat-the-Correction-in-Gold), interesting charts. These could be used to take easy bets off Skol..

It's time to post another USD Index chart EZ to see how it's going.

There's some banter about the Eurozone using their gold as collateral or even selling it, Greece has 5,000,000 ounces of gold. That won't do much for your 1500oz of silver JB.

Told you to buy TLS and told you to buy USD, you guys aren't listening to me. Check out the USD this morning.

Skol

25-11-2011, 08:05 PM

The very latest Jim Rogers fudge:

"I expect gold to reach $2400 sometime in the next 5 to 20 years".

LOL, half the goldbugs will be in retirement villages by then.

Nothing like hedging your bets.

JBmurc

25-11-2011, 08:10 PM

hey where not all that old skol .....I see germany didn't get all their bonds sold not looking good for the weaker euro nations ....

corran

25-11-2011, 09:09 PM

The very latest Jim Rogers fudge:

"I expect gold to reach $2400 sometime in the next 5 to 20 years".

LOL, half the goldbugs will be in retirement villages by then.

Nothing like hedging your bets.

I think he's just being honest and saying that it will end in a bubble but that he doesn't have a clue when that will happen, e.g, he says the following in reference to the bubble "I hope I am smart enough to sell but when that happens it will probably double."

He's obviously a smart dude - he made enough money with the quantum fund to retire when he was 37 and then do fun things like ride around the world on a motorbike. And has been pretty spot on with a lot of his forecasts.

Here's a quote of his you might like Skol...

“Acknowledge the complexity of the world and resist the impression that you easily understand it. People are too quick to accept conventional wisdom, because it sounds basically true and it tends to be reinforced by both their peers and opinion leaders, many of whome have never looked at whether the facts support the received wisdom. It's a basic fact of life that many things "everybody knows" turn out to be wrong.”

Skol

25-11-2011, 09:17 PM

elZorro

25-11-2011, 09:36 PM

No one knows what's going to happen, but I'll hand it to the goldbugs they have to be the world's biggest optimists.

I saw a post from a goldbug the other day complaining that "gold should be $10,000 by now".

LOL

Well it's not, nor will it be for decades, maybe hundreds of years, who knows, but the diehards seem to have made themselves scarce just recently. I think it's dawning on them that the real world is a little different from some of the get-rich-quick gold Disneyland fantasies they've been having.

Gidday there Skol, thought I'd send you a graph, you'll need to buy in at $1500 for a bargain (http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_prices_112420117). Especially as you've admitted that gold will rise well above where it's at today. It's just the timeframe that we disagree on then.

Skol

26-11-2011, 08:32 AM

Gidday there Skol, thought I'd send you a graph, you'll need to buy in at $1500 for a bargain (http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_prices_112420117). Especially as you've admitted that gold will rise well above where it's at today. It's just the timeframe that we disagree on then.

$1500, no thanks, maybe $600, somewhere near the mean.

If Jim Rogers is correct and the worse case scenario prevails-gold gets to $2400 in 20 years time-that's a compound interest rate of 1.7% p.a. The risk isn't worth it, better off money in the bank. You'd actually be losing money after insurance, storage costs, buyers premium etc.

Since the end of Sept. the XGD has formed a symmetrical triangle, it seems to me. It's broken out to the downside.

JBmurc

26-11-2011, 10:03 AM

-Fiat money average histrionic lifespan 47 years -----Gold/silver still holding values for over 5000yrs

Skol

26-11-2011, 10:13 AM

-Fiat money average histrionic lifespan 47 years -----Gold/silver still holding values for over 5000yrs

You'd better buy some USD then because they've been around since 1792. Gold is not a currency.

JBmurc

26-11-2011, 10:36 AM

You'd better buy some USD then because they've been around since 1792. Gold is not a currency.

No the current Fiat USD has been round since 71 before it was backed by GOLD it's getting to the end of it's life IMHO just like the euro

Skol

26-11-2011, 11:26 AM

No the current Fiat USD has been round since 71 before it was backed by GOLD it's getting to the end of it's life IMHO just like the euro

The fact that it was backed by gold makes no difference, Nixon was smart enough to realise that having a modern currency backed by an anachronism wasn't a good idea.

JBmurc

26-11-2011, 01:04 PM

By the early 1970s, as the costs of the Vietnam War and increased domestic spending accelerated inflation,[1] the U.S. was running a balance-of-payments deficit and a trade deficit, the first in the 20th century. The year 1970 was the crucial turning point, because foreign arbitrage of the U.S. dollar caused governmental gold coverage of the paper dollar to decline from 55% to 22%. That, in the view of neoclassical economics and the Austrian School, represented the point where holders of the U.S. dollar lost faith in the U.S. government's ability to cut its budget and trade deficits.
By 1971, the money supply had increased by 10%.[1] In the first six months of 1971, $22 billion in assets left the U.S.[2] In May 1971, inflation-wary West Germany was the first member country to unilaterally leave the Bretton Woods system — unwilling to devalue the Deutsche Mark in order to prop up the dollar.[1] In the following three months, West Germany's move strengthened their economy. Simultaneously, the dollar dropped 7.5% against the Deutsche Mark.[1]
Due to the excess printed dollars, and the negative U.S. trade balance, other nations began demanding fulfillment of America's "promise to pay" – that is, the redemption of their dollars for gold. Switzerland redeemed $50 million of paper for gold in July.[1] France, in particular, repeatedly made aggressive demands, and acquired $191 million in gold, further depleting the gold reserves of the U.S.[1] On August 5, 1971, Congress released a report recommending devaluation of the dollar, in an effort to protect the dollar against foreign price-gougers.[1] Still, on August 9, 1971, as the dollar dropped in value against European currencies, Switzerland unilaterally withdrew the Swiss franc from the Bretton Woods system

Skol

26-11-2011, 01:16 PM

JBmurc

26-11-2011, 01:32 PM

The world hasn't ended, it's proceeding reasonably normally I would have thought, there's good times and bad times, right? That's ancient history, 40 years ago, you're living the past, pining for the good old days.

No the world hasn't ended nor will it currently but only a fool would think everything is going well..

Statist billionaire George Soros calls for massive euro inflation
Advertisement

Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Text Size:

From Newsmax:

The European Central Bank (ECB) must pump liquidity into the 17-member financial system to stop a run on bonds and even slap a ceiling on yields to avoid a breakup of the currency zone, says billionaire financier George Soros.

Soros writes in a Financial Times column that policymakers should use the European Financial Stability Facility – an emergency assistance fund – to help the European Central Bank flood the economy with liquidity, a move that would aim to curb skyrocketing yields on sovereign bonds issued by indebted southern European nations.

"The financial markets are testing the ECB and want to find out what it is allowed to do. It is imperative that the ECB should not fail that test. The Central Bank must..."

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Soros-Plan-Save-Euro/2011/11/21/id/418735

Skol

26-11-2011, 01:57 PM

No the world hasn't ended nor will it currently but only a fool would think everything is going well..

How well did it go during the Great Depression?

They had the gold standard then.

JBmurc

26-11-2011, 02:47 PM

What Did Smart Money Do In the 1929 Crash and Aftermath?

During the same bear market period smart-money moved from the plunging equity markets (i.e. financial assets) to hard asset investments, like Homestake Mining - which is used heretofore as a surrogate for all gold stocks.

The stock price of this gold mining company soared relentlessly upward during the entire bear market. Homestake Mining stock rose continuously from $80 in October 1929 to $495 per share in December 1935 - which represents a total return of 519% (excluding cash dividends) during the devastating bear market period.

Contemplate and appreciate the monumental difference in investment returns during a serious bear market. Smart-money invested $10,000 in Homestake Mining (hard assets) in late 1929 - which increased in value to almost $62,000 by December 1935. This represents a compound rate of return of 35% per year in appreciation alone!

It is meaningful to note that in late 1929 the value of Homestake Mining was about $80 per share. Moreover, during the next six years Homestake Mining paid out a total of $128 in cash dividends. In fact the 1935 dividend alone reached $56 per share. That's almost a 70% dividend yield payout (basis 1929) in only one year! Indeed, hard asset investments (gold mining shares) were islands of economic refuge during the grueling years of the Great Depression.

Skol

26-11-2011, 04:41 PM

Yes, all very nice talking about gold during the depression but nevertheless the US had the gold standard and the depression still occurred. We're not talking about gold we're talking about the gold standard which, according to some, like Noriel Roubini, caused the depression to be even worse.

I see someone has been arrested for setting fire to a car in Wellington protesting about the "fractional banking system'

Not you is it JB?

Betcha this dick is a goldbug, probably one that's lost a s**tload of money on gold.

Got your USD yet JB?

elZorro

26-11-2011, 05:23 PM

Hi Skol, here's the USD chart you were asking for. It's recovering a bit, sure enough. How long until the next crash I wonder?

Skol

26-11-2011, 08:08 PM

Hi Skol, here's the USD chart you were asking for. It's recovering a bit, sure enough. How long until the next crash I wonder?

'Recovering a bit', I like that.

You've also put on a chart with a longer time frame than your other ones that it look a bit more respectable for the dollar haters. Hope you've got some USD.

corran

26-11-2011, 09:42 PM

Betcha this dick is a goldbug, probably one that's lost a s**tload of money on gold.

Got your USD yet JB?

you crack me up Skol :)

It's unlikely to be a gold bug that has lost a shed load of money on gold for two reasons:
1 - hardly anyone (especially in America) owns gold
2 - gold is pretty much the only asset class that has had positive annual returns each year for the last 11 years

How much value has the USD lost over the past 70 years... 95% or so??

USD has less immediate problems in comparison to the euro but over time the USD will continue to head on down relative to gold...

drillfix

27-11-2011, 01:32 AM

Seems Venezuela feels a move to gold is order, no doubt they dont want to be left without a chair when or if or should the music stops.

Actually saw it on the ABC news tonight but now see a snippet form this article saying:

=========================
Venezuela has received its first shipment of gold bars, after President Hugo Chavez ordered the repatriation of 85% of the country's bullion reserves.

The gold was unloaded from a plane and taken under heavy guard to the Central Bank in the capital, Caracas.

President Chavez has explained the move as an act of sovereignty that will protect Venezuela's reserves from global economic turbulence.

However critics say it is expensive and unnecessary.

Venezuela plans to bring home around 160 tonnes of gold, worth more than $11bn (£7bn).

=========================

Full Story here: >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-15900885

bung5

28-11-2011, 02:19 PM

Seems Venezuela feels a move to gold is order, no doubt they dont want to be left without a chair when or if or should the music stops.

Actually saw it on the ABC news tonight but now see a snippet form this article saying:

=========================
Venezuela has received its first shipment of gold bars, after President Hugo Chavez ordered the repatriation of 85% of the country's bullion reserves.

hahaha but that should be a reason to stay away from gold. Chavez is an idiot. Claims to have the largest oil reserve in the world yet the majority of the country live in poverty.
Probably just wants it because it looks shiny

drillfix

28-11-2011, 03:39 PM

Things are becoming out of wack if you ask me Bung.

I mean, Italy will be given money by the IMF and France and Germany seem to have a better approach to helping Italy also and what does the price of Gold do?

It goes up? I would have thought it be the other way round.

As in, if a country is going to fold, default at the expense of others then surely you would think Gold would be more worthy.

There seems to be random convergence and divergence with prices and actions of markets and this is becoming tiresome to follow at times.

Skol

29-11-2011, 05:42 AM

hahaha but that should be a reason to stay away from gold. Chavez is an idiot. Claims to have the largest oil reserve in the world yet the majority of the country live in poverty.
Probably just wants it because it looks shiny

Correct, Chavez is one of the biggest loonies in the world and when this idiot gets involved in gold you know the end is in sight.

Skol

29-11-2011, 05:53 AM

you crack me up Skol :)

It's unlikely to be a gold bug that has lost a shed load of money on gold for two reasons:
1 - hardly anyone (especially in America) owns gold
2 - gold is pretty much the only asset class that has had positive annual returns each year for the last 11 years

How much value has the USD lost over the past 70 years... 95% or so??

USD has less immediate problems in comparison to the euro but over time the USD will continue to head on down relative to gold...

Incorrect, loads own gold in the USA, it's on TV, the papers, it's everywhere, in fact record numbers of gold eagles have been sold in the last year or 2. Been there recently?

It's gone up for 11 years, how much longer do you think, until it becomes just another commodity, shiny metal, which it is?

corran

29-11-2011, 10:20 AM

Incorrect, loads own gold in the USA, it's on TV, the papers, it's everywhere, in fact record numbers of gold eagles have been sold in the last year or 2. Been there recently?

It's gone up for 11 years, how much longer do you think, until it becomes just another commodity, shiny metal, which it is?

so what percentage of the U.S. public own gold or silver bullion do you think Skol? I go to America quite a bit and have seen ads for buying gold just like I see here in Europe and in the UK but it doesn't imply that a significant percentage of the population own bullion. I would say far less than 5% of the population own bullion.

Gold has been money (i.e., a store of value, a unit of account, a medium of exchange) for thousands of years. It will still be money long after the USD is dead and buried.

Skol

30-11-2011, 03:54 PM

Hey Corran, you've been looking at too many of those gung-ho gold websites.

whirly

01-12-2011, 02:15 PM

Finally sold my RSG shares and moved into BDR. Bring on $2000oz.

Skol

01-12-2011, 03:52 PM

Finally sold my RSG shares and moved into BDR. Bring on $2000oz.

Won't happen, notice the DOW up 5 or so %? The place to be is gonna be good quality industrial shares. Gold's done its dash, the party's over.

lakedaemonian

01-12-2011, 10:15 PM

What did central banks around the world buy a record amount of in Q3?

Yawn...

Wake me in a year or two.

There will be plenty of excitement in the coming years, including days of $100-200+ intraday price swings.

But gold will be a more effective store of purchasing power than most every other option for the challenges ahead, until it isn't.

The key will be the exit.

And we are no where near time to head for the exit before it gets crowded.

See you next year.

skid

02-12-2011, 06:48 AM

Looks like its bail out time in Europe

Jaa

02-12-2011, 11:35 AM

Won't happen, notice the DOW up 5 or so %? The place to be is gonna be good quality industrial shares. Gold's done its dash, the party's over.

Good choice whirly! BDR will be a world class producer in a few months.

But that is the weird thing Skol, in the last year or so DOW up has meant Gold up.

Skol

02-12-2011, 12:01 PM

Yeah, it's strange I would have thought the Dow and gold would have been uncorrelated.

I've just been reading the Lipper Indexes and of 15 indexes, in 2011 gold is the second worst performer at -7.04%, the best performer at 8.1% is US Govt, Bonds.

The worst performer is International Stocks at -12.29%

Skol

04-12-2011, 05:04 PM

Looks like the gold price will have to fall if it's gonna sell in India.

www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/02/us-india-gold-idUSTRE7B11IE20111202

elZorro

05-12-2011, 07:13 PM

Looks like the gold price will have to fall if it's gonna sell in India.

www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/02/us-india-gold-idUSTRE7B11IE20111202 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/02/us-india-gold-idUSTRE7B11IE20111202)

Skol, that article also said that gold is in a continuing bull trend..

Who am I? (It's more fun this way).

I think the world’s central banks rung a pretty loud bell today to buy precious metals…So we are increasing the global quantity of dollars in circulation, as a result the dollar is losing value. And I believe it’s going to lose a lot more value, not just against other fiat currencies, but against real money – gold and silver. And so I think investors should be buying. Those of you who have been on the sidelines, waiting for an opportunity to buy, I would not wait much longer, I would just buy. You have gold at around $1,700, silver around $32. I think these are good positions both to buy gold for the first time if you still haven’t bought, or to add to your positions if you already own. Also don’t overlook platinum…it is trading at quite a discount to gold; I don’t think that is going to last.

A lot of people think what is going on is a bailout for the euro zone. It is not. It’s a bailout for the banks on both sides of the Atlantic…I think this is a bank bailout ala QE2. This is not about economic growth, it’s about propping up insolvent financial institutions by creating inflation. People who really understand this dynamic will be buying gold.
The amazing thing is that the world is now easing when they barely tightened. That’s how vulnerable the global financial system is. They can’t even stand normal low interest rates; they have to be super low to keep this whole house of cards from imploding. It’s still going to implode. The people who understand the dynamics, they’re not buying dollars, they’re buying gold.
Now, gold and silver are up quite a bit today, but I think it’s just getting started. I think as people have more time to digest what all this means you’re going to see more buying coming into the precious metals market. Even if you look at the mining stocks – which are up pretty big today – if you look at the PE’s on these stocks, these are the lowest valuations in about ten years. What that shows me is that there is a lot of pessimism out there in the market. The professional investors still don’t know what’s going on. They still doubt this gold rally. That’s not a bubble, that’s a wall of worry that a bull market climbs.”
But I think a lot of people who have been questioning this market over the years are going to start believing in it. I think there is a lot of buying coming, and when that happens I think prices are going to move up in a very rapid way. So the key is to buy before that happens.

Skol

05-12-2011, 08:51 PM

Gold's been going up for 11 years and "it's just getting started".

Does that make sense to you EZ? You're an educated man.

elZorro

06-12-2011, 08:19 AM

Gold's been going up for 11 years and "it's just getting started".

Does that make sense to you EZ? You're an educated man.

Well, it must be a narrow education, but no, I don't quite agree with Peter Schiff's thoughts completely. I was partly waiting to hear your reaction..

However, if gold is charting the end of cheap oil, as we are being told, (have a look at the recent Peak Oil thread video) then until the world starts to make moves to properly address this, gold might just keep going. Moves might include the cancelling of those aircraft orders you mention. In Africa, the villages have power blackouts. They have diesel generators for backup, they just can't afford the fuel to run them.

Skol

06-12-2011, 01:56 PM

elZorro

06-12-2011, 08:35 PM

Told you to buy TLS, up 16% in the last year + 10% DY = 26%.Here's my theory: Equity markets will stage a rally, maybe a big one, the big gold punters and hedge funds will dump their gold to get in on it.Yep, interesting theory, would it just be a bear market rally though Skol? There are many more than Peter Schiff (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Schiff)advising caution. I'm waiting for a goldmine to be announced (literally) for my bonanza, it's been a while waiting however. Of course I could be like Peter Schiff then, and say I was right all along. Maybe it'll be your turn first? TLS, interesting profit agenda. (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/6089234/226-million-at-stake-in-IRD-tax-cases)

Market Club still predicts gold to go 'much higher' in 2012 as inflation takes off worldwide. That sounds feasible.

GOLD (SPOT)
————-
With a Chart Analysis Score of -70, gold is moving into and emerging trend, however with our monthly Trade Triangle in a positive position we have a longer term bullish bias. We remain positive on this market longer term and expect we will see it move much higher in 2012 as inflation kicks in around the world. Long-term traders should remain positive for this precious metal. Intermediate term traders should be out of this market at the moment and on the sidelines waiting for a buy signal with the weekly Trade Triangle.
BIG PICTURE: Emerging Trend
Monthly trade triangles for Long-term trends = Bullish
weekly trade triangles for intermediate term trends = Bearish
daily trade triangles for short-term trends = Bearish

Combined Strength of Trend Score = -70
————-
HOW TO USE THE MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM:
Score: 50 – 65 Trading Range
Score: 70 – 80 Emerging Trend
Score: 85 – 100 Strong Trend

corran

07-12-2011, 10:01 AM

Here's my theory: Equity markets will stage a rally, maybe a big one, the big gold punters and hedge funds will dump their gold to get in on it.

It's interesting pondering what's going to happen eh Skol... personally I reckon the euro leaders won't be able to save the euro in it's current form and that's going to have massive (downward) repercussions in the markets around the world. I reckon gold will get hit too for a while and the USD will go up, but only temporarily. Interesting few weeks coming up.

JBmurc

07-12-2011, 02:17 PM

Miners' stocks slip as gold price soars

From: Bloomberg
December 02, 201112:00AM

GOLDMINING stocks are trading at their cheapest level in at least nine years even though the industry's profits are estimated to almost double this year and bullion trades close to its historic high.

The benchmark NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index, which includes Barrick Gold, Newmont Mining and AngloGold Ashanti, ended last week at 17 times earnings, the lowest since at least November 2002 and below a five-year average of 37 times.

Investors sold equities across the board as Europe's debt crisis soured the corporate profit outlook, and they are ignoring analyst projections for bullion and gold producers.

The gold index's 16 members will increase combined per-share earnings 94 per cent this year, according to Bloomberg estimates.

"When you look back in history, you will say this was a buying opportunity," said John Wong, a portfolio manager at CQS Group's New City Investment Managers in London and lead manager of the $US200 million ($195m) Golden Prospect Precious Metals, a fund holding gold and silver stocks. "It's like a coiled spring."

Gold equities have fallen 4.7 per cent this year, heading for the first annual decline since 2008. Gold reached a record $US1921.15 on September 6 and is set for an 11th annual gain.

"The market doesn't trust big spikes," Citigroup analyst Jon Bergtheil said.

"People will wait to see if gold holds above $1600 for a while."

Gold averaged about $US1706 an ounce in the third quarter, 39 per cent more than a year earlier, and is forecast to average $US1859 next year, according to a median estimate of 18 analysts.

Hedge fund manager David Einhorn said on November 1 that a "substantial disconnect has developed between the price of gold and the mining companies".

Mr Einhorn's Greenlight Capital Re cut holdings of the commodity in the third quarter and moved funds into the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, which tries to replicate the Arca Gold Miners Index of metal producers.

Bullion has more than doubled in price since the start of 2008, while gold stocks have advanced about 33 per cent.

Goldminers' earnings per share and per-share cashflow reached the highest levels in at least nine years in the third quarter.

"When earnings are reported, the market will be all goggle-eyed about how much cash is flowing into these companies and what their balance sheets look like," Mr Bergtheil said.

elZorro

07-12-2011, 02:34 PM

Sounds fair enough JB. If I might be so bold, GEL and OGC are at cheap prices, just the local ones I'm watching. All hinges on the gold price, maybe after the Christmas rush we'll see something happening.

CAM

09-12-2011, 11:38 AM

Stocking up....

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/6114653/Mystery-over-huge-gold-imports

elZorro

11-12-2011, 09:01 AM

In the SST today, arch-conservative Martin Hawes mentions the A-word: Armageddon. This guy has written numerous booklets, like how to save taxes with your rental properties etc. He says that globalisation is OK, delivers benefits, and that only the financial sector is holding the world back. Pertinent to this thread, he now has 1% of his portfolio in GOLD, but he's not stockpiling arms and ammunition.

Other scary indicators on the same inner page of SST are that wealty americans are pulling their investments out of Eurozone banks and buying American dollars with them. Witness the rise in the US$. It's not because the states are doing better at all. Some funds loaned to eurozone banks have a recall within 7 days. That's short-term lending. French and German banks refusing to roll over loans to British firms in Europe. Big banks absent from buyout deals they normally would have helped with. The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner. Problems over there will be felt around the world. Anyone else having trouble selling goods into Ireland? Over there, house prices have fallen 50%, are still falling, unemployment is high, and most banks have stopped lending.

While NZ and Aussie are relatively isolated at the moment, it has a pattern of catching up with us within a year or two. And none of the commentators seem to have grasped the issue behind all this negativity.

Until the world has cheaper energy again, the good times are over. While we still have the structures in place, a much bigger effort must be made to reorganise the energy sources that we use, and complete some technologies to the practical stage.

JBmurc

12-12-2011, 10:15 AM

Japan--"please buy our debt we will give you a tiny amount of gold" LOL .....take our debt we can never payback an we will give you a small amount of real money in 3yrs ...

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-06/japan-s-gold-for-bonds-offer-could-boost-return-by-5-9-times.html

Skol

12-12-2011, 11:44 AM

Punters are paying exorbitant prices for farmland to shelter their wealth from a tumultuous Wall Street. Land prices are skyrocketing in Iowa, up as much as 3% per month, increases seen as unsustainable, even as grain prices are at their lowest for a year. US$17,000 an acre in one auction.

Reminds me of gold, you've got own it no matter what and it won't ever go down in price. Aaaah, yeah, right.

Skol

12-12-2011, 05:24 PM

XGD down 45, bad things happening there, all other indices up.

tricha

12-12-2011, 09:45 PM

XGD down 45, bad things happening there, all other indices up.

U seem to have the time frame of a goat, u need to have a close look at the big picture. Its a golden opportunity to load up, while u can still afford to do so.

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/au_go_0365_ny.gif (javascript:NewWindow('/charts/popup/au0365nyb.html','Au30d','top=50,left=200,width=495 ,height=380');)

Click to enlarge (javascript:NewWindow('/charts/popup/au0030lnb.html','Au30d','top=50,left=200,width=495 ,height=380');)

Just like these flying dinosaurs u endorse. Skol shame on u!

Air New Zealand's financial boost in the lead-up to the Rugby World Cup has failed to last and the airline is now talking down its full-year profit expectations, sending its shares into a steep descent, analysts say.
Air New Zealand's share price has dropped 22 per cent to 92 cents since the start of August. It is down nearly 40 per cent since the start of the year compared with the NZX 50 index which is off just 2.2 per cent.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/6123161/Air-New-Zealand-talks-down-earnings

Skol

13-12-2011, 02:55 AM

U seem to have the time frame of a goat, u need to have a close look at the big picture. Its a golden opportunity to load up, while u can still afford to do so.

Gold's down $90 in the last 2 days, you back the truck up. Gold's fallen below the 100 day MA, is this the beginning of the end? Looks like to me a steady downtrend since mid-Sept.

As for silver, it's down 15% in the last 6 months.

When the gold and silver craze finally implode you gotta ask yourself where all that money's going to find a home, good quality shares a lot of it.

I'll put my faith in TLS, VBA and AWE which I bought recently.

How's FML going?

drillfix

13-12-2011, 04:54 AM

Gold's down $90 in the last 2 days, you back the truck up. Gold's fallen below the 100 day MA, is this the beginning of the end? Looks like to me a steady downtrend since mid-Sept.

Skol,

Take it easy dude, dont let such a moves bring on hallucinations.

As previously said before, this is normal activity and Gold remains on track.

Check this out. >>> http://s8.postimage.org/g26frba3p/ABC_Gold.png

It dont get much simpler than that, just got to not worry about the short term thrusts and declines.

Just another perspective to think about anyway rather than making certain facts which are not yet facts :P (yet)

Skol

13-12-2011, 09:29 AM

Give it a few more days.

drillfix

13-12-2011, 12:32 PM

Give it a few more days.

Yep, Ok then Skol, I will watching for a breach of my support, in which case, then panic..LOL :p

Skol

13-12-2011, 01:45 PM

Yep, Ok then Skol, I will watching for a breach of my support, in which case, then panic..LOL :p

I'd start thinking about it, the XGD is down 2.4%.

drillfix

13-12-2011, 02:03 PM

Well, hopefully we all have our plans in place.

Mine is not to panic but just react when a certain level becomes breached.

You see, this is exactly what is meant to happen. A squeeze on gold is wonderful for some because like a wet sponge, they grasp it and drain as much water out as they can to shake all those whom believe the party is over out of their positions be it in stocks or physical gold.

They (the big of bigs) also know they cant get rid of all the moisture in the sponge (gold) so they dont worry about that, but providing they drain it the best they can then that is good enough for them.

We are still in range and on trajectory though as shown in the line and we travel below the line which is healthy.

Back to a breach.

Well, should, or if this does happen, then certainly the cards will come tumbling down and I will be the 1st to say well called to you Skol :P but in the meantime, every time the metal becomes weak for a week then no need to call it game set and match with every decline and so forth.

//soap box off :)

drillfix

13-12-2011, 02:20 PM

Skol

13-12-2011, 03:10 PM

Skol,

Quick question: Do you believe the global economy will recover? Yes or No?

If yes, when and why briefly?
If no, then why not or whats stopping it?

Just brief answers will do if possible. (unlike me who can never answer anything briefly..lol :P)

Of course it's going to recover, nothing goes on forever, just seems like it. Might start improving in the next year or so, everywhere I go I ask how business is and in general the replies are that it's going OK and business is improving.

Take it from me, the end is not nigh, not in 2012 or any other time.

The USD will be the place to be for a while until the mess is sorted out and in Europe that may take longer than elsewhere IMO. Stupid people borrowing too much money and in some cases it's downright greed, they deserve to go under and it goes from dopes running countries to dopes buying and gearing up overpriced houses. Also dopey bankers lending 110% of house values, how dumb was that?

The idiots at Lehmans geared up their assets 35 times and they're the 'experts'. LOL I don't take much notice of banksters, stockbrokers or politicians.

I saw this on TV in London a while back, makes you realise how entrenched this cancer is.

www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/30/subprimecrisis.creditcrunch

The years leading up to the meltdown remind me of the boom leading up to the '87 crash, massive excess and partying and now we've got the hangover, a typical boom/bust cycle.

JBmurc

13-12-2011, 03:23 PM

Of course it's going to recover, nothing goes on forever, just seems like it. Might start improving in the next year or so, everywhere I go I ask how business is and in general the replies are that it's going OK and business is improving.-SKOL

-well there not going the right way about it if anything the powers that be aren't even upholding the law allowing the likes of MF Global to fleece clients,Goldmans to sell well known toxic assets,mass manipulation of future markets etc-- business may be improving for the lawless rouge investment banks/hedge funds but no so good for joe public..

drillfix

13-12-2011, 04:04 PM

until the mess is sorted out

and in Europe that may take longer than elsewhere IMO.

Bingo, you said it right there, until - mess - sorted out - Europe - even longer

Those are the zillion dollar questions, but even thinking about the simple ones not going on getting answered alone is a worry.

Meaning, this so called mess can only be seemed to be covered up and like some magic trick, made to vanish. What has been done will not just go away Skol.

Can you not see that every country that has a problem now seems to want to take it from pensioners, increase the pension age to keep people working longer. It is like a type of human enslavement of the western world whereby Government(s) seek more power and get the simple man to pay for it.

No no, No no, you can only go so far before not only the corporate tie guy has a noose around his neck, and then onto our politicians whom also should they do not hand over the ones as in the greedy corporate suit wearing cheaters then all hell will, can, may, might, could or even should break out. Unthinkable I know, but there are more people on the planet than Army, Police and Law holders.

Currently manipulation is the name of the game in global markets, cashing in on any rise, fall or rumor there is.

Either play it, or be played, but do not take sides as it is what it is.

Meanwhile, this so called Mess getting sorted out. Who exactly is sorting out this mess, and when, how long, and whom is doing this? No need to answer this as Nobody is sorting out anything, as they are just trying to cover it up like a magic trick, but as time unfolds, then it will be obvious that trick will not or has not worked. (IMO).

ps:
Skol, regardless of the outcome, I still respect your opinion either way.

Skol

13-12-2011, 04:23 PM

Yes, it's certainly a mess and it's going be a fine balancing act of spending and fiscal restraint, if they cock it up and we end up with a depression then all bets are off.

Personally I have reduced debt to virtually zero, I have a mortgage of a few thousand dollars, but I haven't discharged it, may come in handy if I see any real bargains.

I also have a fair amount of cash, cash doesn't generate much and so-called sophisticated investors pooh-pooh it, but it's a great investment if the stock market takes a hit.

In the event of a recovery the thing not to own will be PM, they've outperformed for years, the worst performer over the last year is international stocks at about -12%, so I've been picking a few up and I dollar-cost-average several share and index funds.

Sorting the mess out can take a long time, the Nikkei 225 crashed in 1989 after years of gross excess and it still hasn't recovered.

I don't buy the 'manipulation' paranoia, that's JB Murcs favourite subject, so many banksters and rich people have been impoverished recently, which by the way I'm not that sad about, that it's unlikely. The consequences would be very serious indeed for anyone caught trying it on.

JBmurc

13-12-2011, 04:37 PM

In the event of a recovery the thing not to own will be PM.......really think your find eitherway Silver should do well gold would be hit if the world montery Fiat problems are fixed to once again have decent interest rates to uphold the value of the money in savings

drillfix

13-12-2011, 06:35 PM

Yes, it's certainly a mess and it's going be a fine balancing act of spending and fiscal restraint, if they cock it up and we end up with a depression then all bets are off.

Well your not wrong about that Skol~!

And at least its good to see you do view the situation with an open mind.

Skol

13-12-2011, 06:49 PM

www.cnbc.com/id/45641282

Lizard

13-12-2011, 07:06 PM

Increasingly deflationary outlook (for now) is my take. Going to take exceptions to hold their own until we start pricing it in? Cash would be king (if banks were guaranteed). Maybe shorter term bonds at the right price. From equity perspective, will need some careful thought as to which companies can maintain revenue and margins in a deflationary environment.

Skol

14-12-2011, 12:23 PM

Lucky I didn't take your advice and 'back the truck up', tricha, now $1625 and still falling, lower highs and lower lows, and we're all smart enough here to realise what that means.

drillfix

14-12-2011, 01:12 PM

Yeah, best not to "over" expose yourself to any commodity, metal, or stock in any circumstance which "without" a stop of some sort should see you have some sort of balance or exposure.

With regards to Gold.

Reference the below chart for the banter that follows:

GOLD Daily >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/p232nhhyjvfegqq0bck_GOLD.png

To me, Gold is still in a consolidation phase and close to near target of the the down run towards the 200 EMA on the daily which is $1,622.xx

Failing that line then, I would expect a test of the lower part of the range which is set at $1,588.xx which if tested should offer a bounce, but then we should only take things day by day, yet technically is should cause some excitement and new entry and risk flocking into the precious metal.

So simply put, Gold is just doing the run or sweep of the lower part of the range bound support & resistance.

Another important note to mention is that, Gold also seems to be tracking WITH equities which is should not, the safe haven has turned into Convergence rarther than divergence which it should act as for safe haven.

In the meantime, we wait and watch for the above numbers to unfold. We we quite near to the 200ema at present, but I feel a test of the lower range of support will be in order or an eventual event. (IMO)

Pumice

15-12-2011, 12:47 PM

Dont think I am too worried here at present there Pumice.

Gold is just trading in the expected range, with the exception of now price is in the Mid part of the range.

Should a breach of 1616 or 1606 come into play then I certainly will act accordingly, and I would also then encourage others to think about their positions then~!

Hi Drillfix,
I see Gold has breached your area of concern and is now under 1580. What is your plan now?
May I ask how you plan to act?

cheers

drillfix

15-12-2011, 01:16 PM

Hi Pumice,

I have reduced my position in Gold stocks to only small position, so should there be any large down swings continue, then I do not get to feel the force of it as much.

In other words, its easier to buffer yourself and buy in lower and then trade in and out of the moves of stocks.

Must also be-careful though as funds shorting gold will need to cover and rally will come into play, and also into gold stocks hence why we hold a smaller position.

I also have a punch out price of all gold holdings at $1,555.xx as another alarm bell for smaller positions.

The breach comes previous support comes as no surprise, but what is a surprise is how this has been tracking with convergence and not showing any divergence to stocks and other instruments.

Either way, I am fine being 100% cash or 90% invested. The name of the game is survival and not bravery or illusion hunting to convince ourselves of the belief's of others, as its all about what you Believe, Feel, Think and Vision what is really happening to Your Portfolio or value and thus protect that the best way you know how.

Last,
The lack of respect for the testing of major support (at 1,586) is a bit of a alarm also, its like support was never there, but that also is the power of the short side ramming the pile driver down for the sake of greed.

Anyway Pumice, I hope that helps and finger on the pulse~!

drillfix

15-12-2011, 01:53 PM

Technical update.

Hi folks,

Here is daily and weekly chart of Gold which is last nights chart (EOD) with an added drawn in candle to where the price sites right now added by me for the banter.

Gold daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/hiwt4kyxnd3f7s2ioig_GOLD.png

EMA REFERENCE
13ema - 30ema - 90ema - 200ema

From the Top of the daily gold chart:
The RSI showing its weakness as it tests its previous lows and may hover around this area.
Below that price has broken through the 1,586 major support which is obviously negative.
The EMA structure in the price zone is also starting to gradually breakdown.
The 13ema is has crossed the 30ema, and now seems set to also cross the 90ema.
Should downward pressure remain then the 30ema will also be set to cross the 90ema. (warning bell).
Williams %R is also showing gold as over sold, yet this can stay this way for long periods if need be.
The MACD histogram is negative along with the signal lines crossed on the negative side the centre line.

The weekly chart to the right also has been showing what the daily is saying.
At the top of the chart, an RSI break of 50 signalling weakness, which is a fair warning.
The best thing about the weekly (medium term) is that the EMA alignment is still completely in tack spread a part.
Price does not show the breakdown of support like on the daily yet a few more days this will show up on the weekly.
Williams %R on the weekly shows a continuation downward to which in due time may also show an oversold state.
MACD histogram are also red and the signal lines are negatively crossed moving downward whilst above the centre line.

Over all, gold is taking a serious breather and now also confirms a new downtrend unlike the previous trading range or consolidation area, as Lower Highs and Lower Lows are now very obvious for all to see.

Who can say who, what, where and when, things will happen as I find its best to just take each day for what it is and prepare accordingly to whatever your plan is.

Well there you have it, enough babble from me for now~!

Lizard

15-12-2011, 08:53 PM

Must also be-careful though as funds shorting gold will need to cover and rally will come into play...

Happening now? Gold bugs get to sleep easy tonight then?:confused:

drillfix

15-12-2011, 10:34 PM

Happening now? Gold bugs get to sleep easy tonight then?:confused:

Dont really know Liz, I think we will always see a small bounce back so surely some shorters have covered but some may also remain or hold their position now that the 200ema has been breached and then this will propel matters once the other EMA's fully cross over as well especially when the 50ema (not shown in the chart) cross over the 200ema downward.

Dont know about how well the GB's will sleep, it may depend on how they position themselves with their other investments, but as you know every now and then we all get to take at least one breath of fresh air when it presents itself.

As always, time will tell.

Aaron

16-12-2011, 10:54 AM

I was reading that some central banks hold gold. Why? If currencies are not backed by gold there is no need for them to hold it.

If central banks did hold gold why would they do so as it would not affect their currencies.

Tha answer may already be earlier on this thread but thats a lot of pages to cover.

Skol

16-12-2011, 12:18 PM

Aaron

16-12-2011, 03:18 PM

Good question.

Someone asked Ben Bernanke the same question and he said it was 'tradition'.

That doesn't sound like much of an answer. I suppose it is an alternative to paper money if people stopped believing in the dollar. If Ben keeps printing things could turn to custard. I'm pretty sure if he printed up $1mill for every citizen of the USA it wouldn't solve their problems.

I guess if he keeps printing other countries eventually won't accept US dollars and they will need something else that is recognised as a store of value.After a quick google it appears the world central banks apparently have treaties regarding selling their gold reserves. Sounds like gold keeps a traditional place as a currency if the world goes to hell in a handbasket. International finance is over my head but there should be some constraints on the worlds money supply or else it becomes meaningless. As you say Skol gold has no utility value other than jewelry but its interesting that central bankers still see it as a currency of last resort. harder to dig out of the ground than adding some zeros on a computer.Valuation is tricky though. Is it the bigger fool theory or does it become more valuable in $US every time Ben prints.

Hoop

16-12-2011, 07:34 PM

...............Another important note to mention is that, Gold also seems to be tracking WITH equities which is should not, the safe haven has turned into Convergence rarther than divergence which it should act as for safe haven.

Hi Drilly
Gold often tracks the same way as Equities...it just hasn't happened for a wee while ....Often we fall into false thinking when 2 market behave in an opposite manner for a lengthy time,,, we then assume and think it is normal behaviour and then explain why it happens that way (false logic).....Of Course the media always have explanations why it happens which reinforces our belief... rightly or wrongly.

Drilly..You know like me that many people are adverse to charts...but....they are vital to investors as a reference to past history....we have such poor memories of past market performances that we need charts to make us remember what really happened.

Below is the long term chart DOW with Gold...I can't see any inverse correlation between Equities and Gold.

Safe haven and a flight to safety?..didn't show up on the chart in 1998 with the Asian banking Crisis. You would assume something would've happened here especially with the Indian's love affair with Gold ..No real similar behaviour between the 2001 and 2008 bear crashes either.
However..its possible that the flight to gold's safe haven may have happened but as Gold is measured in US$ perhaps the US$$ masked the true behaviour of Gold because the US$ is also seen as a safe haven asset.

There is something I personally noticed and haven't seen it mentioned in the media anywhere .. that is.. the last time Gold went mad it was also during the later stages of a DOW's secular bear cycle. Unfortunately due to the Gold market intervention (setting of the gold standard) which creates confused market signals I have not got enough history to prove this DOW / Gold relationship.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOWVGOLDLongterm.png

Skol

16-12-2011, 07:44 PM

Notice the parabolic shape and then vertical spike of the gold chart.

Be very surprised if the bull market in gold isn't well and truly over.

corran

16-12-2011, 09:27 PM

I was reading that some central banks hold gold. Why? If currencies are not backed by gold there is no need for them to hold it.

Here's my 2c:

Gold is money and has been for thousands of years. It's a store of value, a medium of exchange and a unit of account.

Fiat currencies like the USD are money as well, but over time they will be worth less and less as more and more of them are created. Eventually they will be worth nothing. It happens every time.

Central banks see gold as a monetary asset. When fiat currencies appear weak central banks step up their purchases of gold as they're seeking stability.

Bernanke's answer that 'it's tradition' was lame.

skid

17-12-2011, 08:55 AM

Probably a good time to remain neutral on gold.I wouldnt be making a major purchase or going long,but at the same time ,Im not panic selling,especially if its for insurance purposes.
Its important not to let emotions get in the way.It can be expensive to invest and remain bullish all the way down just because you like it-conversely it can be a big missed opportunity to be bearish all the way up.Those who follow their ''camp'' blindly are NOT the ones to take advice from.

JBmurc

19-12-2011, 02:03 PM

ALAN GREENSPAN SAID WHAT?

“Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the ‘hidden’ confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights.”

From "Gold and Economic Freedom" a 1966 Essay by Alan Greenspan

Rising prices of precious metals and other commodities are an indication of a very early stage of an endeavor to move away from paper currencies...What is fascinating is the extent to which gold still holds reign over the financial system as the ultimate source of payment.

-Alan Greenspan, 9 Sep 2009

drillfix

19-12-2011, 02:32 PM

skid

20-12-2011, 08:50 AM

Thanks drillfix,I was actually thinking of using you as an example of the neutral thinking,that is a breath of fresh air--Much appreciated.

Skol

20-12-2011, 10:10 AM

According to Incredible Charts, the HUI falling below 500 is prescient of further falls in the POG, currently 494.

JBmurc

21-12-2011, 10:05 AM

We are Witnessing a Historic Bottom in Gold
December 20, 2011, at 1:43 pm
by Eric King in the category King World News

It certainly gets lonely out there when the voices of gold all turn negative.
–Jim Sinclair

London Trader – We are Witnessing a Historic Bottom in Gold

(Courtesy of Eric King at www.KingWorldNews.com

With many investors worried the price of gold could head lower, today King World News interviewed the “London Trader” to get his take on the gold market. The source stated, “The Chinese have continued to take delivery of both physical gold and silver directly from the ETF’s GLD and SLV. They are also going directly to producers. Entities are bypassing the COMEX altogether and going straight to gold mining companies. Every single month producers have a certain amount of gold and silver they sell. Normally they sell it to the bullion banks and the bullion banks, of course, leverage this gold and sell up to 100 times that in paper markets to control prices.”

The London Trader continues:

“They (bullion banks) hold that little bit of physical gold and claim they are backed up on their position to the CFTC. I have all my large buyers now going to producers and saying to them, ‘Look, don’t sell it to the bullion banks, we’ll buy it from you.’ So we are buying directly from the producers and this includes some sovereign entities which are doing the same thing.

We’re struggling to get the physical out of these guys (producers) because they have so many people banging on their door, saying, ‘Sell it to us direct.’ What these buyers are doing is essentially taking gold out of the system, which means the bullion banks can’t leverage that gold anymore.

The following was at http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/12/20/we-are-witnessing-a-historic-bottom-in-gold/ where the article continues

Skol

21-12-2011, 12:42 PM

According to one commentator, gold should have jumped $100 on news of Kim Jong Il's kicking the bucket, but it didn't do anything, another indication the bull market in gold's over.

There's some speculation that Greece, Italy and Portugal may be selling gold and you know what that means, right JB?

From 2000 to 2010, gold increased by 430%, shares increased by 15%, the situation will now more than likely reverse.

JBmurc

21-12-2011, 08:35 PM

Gold currently 1628 up $243 ^ 17% for the year overall good results for the bullish gold investors..

The PIGS selling Gold I'm sure many other Central banks will be happy to print up some more Fiat for it..

drillfix

21-12-2011, 09:54 PM

Skol

22-12-2011, 06:59 AM

Yeah, isn't it hilarious? The despised and hated USD is actually the safehaven, something the goldbugs will find extremely hard to swallow and it'll be something they won't own.

JBmurc

22-12-2011, 08:47 AM

JB,

What concerns me is that Gold should be falling when markets are climbing, not climbing in unison, and vice versa.

It is like is has coupled to equities and the safe refuge theme has turned to convergence rather than divergence so everything now seems out of wack.

I believe all the previous QE1&2 and artificial stimulus to the markets plus fabrication has coupled the commodity with all others for whatever reason. Yet it should decouple from equities, or at least producers one would think.

Yes many paper gold investments are getting treated like equities ,when a insto,hedge fund covers a margin call or want's to increase cash holdings their Gold like equities get hit esp now with many more investors holding paper gold...it's all about leverage most big days more paper Gold?siver trades that physical is produced international over the entire year,, when you think how many of these paper gold investment have little to no real gold backing it's really just a big pozi scam of safety which as we seen with MFG...where investors that even held gold bullion with them lost out along with all the others..

Here in NZ Gold/silver Bullion hasn't really moved much over the year with the USD strengthening

IMHO 2012 will be the year that many Gold/silver equities will be priced closer to their underlining value to the metal prices

skid

22-12-2011, 09:15 AM

Heres an interesting thought--If you just bought Gold and Silver,where would you be sitting on the 2011 share picking comp.

JBmurc

22-12-2011, 11:47 AM

Heres an interesting thought--If you just bought Gold and Silver,where would you be sitting on the 2011 share picking comp.

your'd be near the top that for sure..

London Trader - There are Tremendous Silver Shortages(also relates to Gold)

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/21_London_Trader_-_There_are_Tremendous_Silver_Shortages.html

So using as little ammunition (physical gold) as possible, and in thinly traded markets, they take out these pivots. They smash the price, but leave just enough physical gold for going into the fixes because the smart buyers are saying, ‘I’ll take it at this price.’ So, as we go into the fix, they’ve provided just enough physical to satisfy as many of those buyers as they can. They then smash it right after the fix, again, with paper.

That’s what’s happened with gold and it’s the reason it has been manipulated down to these levels. It’s the only way they could do it, and it’s a sign of absolute desperation when central banks are willing to risk giving bullion banks gold they will never, ever receive back.

You don’t think the Chinese aren’t sitting here taking every single ounce of that leased gold? Of course they are. There were actually three enormous physical buy areas that they pierced, where, literally, there was tonnage ordered. I estimate well over 100 tons of physical gold was taken between the first pivot they broke, where these guys loaded up with discounted gold, and this stuff disappears from the West to the East.

These central banks had to be in desperation to allow this borrowed gold to be absorbed by foreign entities. They needed to raise dollars in a hurry and they are extremely afraid of gold going through the roof. I was very, very surprised they got as far as they did (driving gold lower). They had to use an awful lot of gold to do it.”

Skol

23-12-2011, 08:02 AM

Dow up, gold and silver down, now this is more like it , back to normal.

denpal

23-12-2011, 08:07 AM

Gold in NZD +14% this year

Silver in NZD -2.5% this year

Skol

23-12-2011, 08:16 AM

DJIA up 5% for the year.

XAU, Gold/silver sector down 16%.

Aussie XGD down 23%.

HUI down 10%.

skid

23-12-2011, 10:31 AM

so Gold itself is up but gold shares on average are down[along with the rest of the market]

Skol

23-12-2011, 10:51 AM

so Gold itself is up but gold shares on average are down[along with the rest of the market]

It's not the 'rest of the market', something's out of whack, either gold or gold shares and I'm picking gold, I can't find a single gold index that's up for the last 12 months.

elZorro

23-12-2011, 05:49 PM

It's not the 'rest of the market', something's out of whack, either gold or gold shares and I'm picking gold, I can't find a single gold index that's up for the last 12 months.

Hello Skol, are you still out there? Merry Christmas to you and yours. Here's a bit of Southern input into the gold price for the next while, we'll see how accurate it is. From the Moneychanger, yes, he sells gold and silver, so there might be a bit of bias. Thought you'd enjoy it..

It now appears that gold MAY have bottomed at $1,562.50 and silver at 2812c. How will we know? Both metals will rally from here, reaching perhaps $1,675 for the GOLD PRICE (http://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html) and 3200c for the SILVER PRICE (http://silverprice.org/). Then they will react, correcting downwards toward but not necessarily all the way to those previous lows. IF they can hold those levels, perhaps not quite reaching those levels, AND then turn up again, THAT is our buy signal. If they cannot hold those levels, then we wait to buy. EITHER WAY, we will be buying soon because the bull market has NOT ended and this correction offers us an opportunity to load up the boat. Recent news out of Europe shows that the ECB will print as much money as necessary to try to float Europe out of its bank solvency crisis. In other words, it will repeat the Fed's 2008 inflationary paroxysm. The cause remains, the trend continues. Count on it, and ignore the self-appointed gurus who are prematurely announcing gold's funeral. As we say in the South, they are a "mite previous."

Back up the truck on any dips.. (DYOR).

skid

23-12-2011, 06:03 PM

It's not the 'rest of the market', something's out of whack, either gold or gold shares and I'm picking gold, I can't find a single gold index that's up for the last 12 months.

Looks to me that the all ordes started the year at approx 4900 and closed today at approx 4200,so unless im mistaken the Gold shares have only just piped the ASX

Skol

23-12-2011, 06:10 PM

Looks to me that the all ordes started the year at approx 4900 and closed today at approx 4200,so unless im mistaken the Gold shares have only just piped the ASX

The XGD is down 23%, no way.

JBmurc

23-12-2011, 09:14 PM

The XGD is down 23%, no way.

Shows how oversold the sector is ,with the sector is outperforming most on earnings growth--the likes of NCM increased earnings 63%!!

skid

24-12-2011, 08:25 AM

So It looks like physical gold has come on top this year between gold -gold shares -and shares in general

Skol

24-12-2011, 09:22 AM

So It looks like physical gold has come on top this year between gold -gold shares -and shares in general

Probably for the last time. Gold shares have been lousy performers and my guess it that the gold rush is over. Gold down again today and DJIA up.

www.cnbc.com/id/45769986

Time to exit gold and buy shares has arrived.

Merry Xmas to all you guys, especially to those in Christchurch, I was there for a couple of hours yesterday.

elZorro

26-12-2011, 10:36 AM

Skol: Gold shares have been lousy performers and my guess it that the gold rush is over. Gold down again today and DJIA up.

Correct Skol, shares have outperformed gold over the last month. But over the last year? (http://dowgoldzoom.com/images/dow_gold_zoom.pdf)

Also worth at look at this site, another graph that is interesting: (http://dowgoldzoom.com/images/how_high_gold_2012.pdf)

Skol

26-12-2011, 10:39 AM

Correct Skol, shares have outperformed gold over the last month. But over the last year?

Gold shares are one of the worst performing sectors.

Here's some indices for the last 12 months:

GOX -13%
GDX -12%
XGD -23%
XAU -16%
HUI -10%
SPTTGD -12%

Skol

27-12-2011, 06:57 PM

From Reuters:

Silver and gold speculators cut their bullish bets for the third consecutive week in the week to Dec. 20, with silver net long positions down by more than half, said the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Lizard

29-12-2011, 08:51 AM

I also have a punch out price of all gold holdings at $1,555.xx as another alarm bell for smaller positions.

$1554.85...

drillfix

29-12-2011, 01:28 PM

$1554.85...

Yes Liz, my finger has been on the sell trigger, and I am watching as gold toggles around this area though I I dont want to get sucked into selling on what may be a double bottom on a couple of charts.

Am watching close~!

Pumice

29-12-2011, 11:10 PM

$1545 things arent looking good for Gold and Silver.

drillfix

30-12-2011, 01:04 AM

Yes indeed Pumice, as I type, I am reading the price of gold being $1,525.9x

Time to hit the eject button on gold me reckons~!

skid

30-12-2011, 10:17 AM

Did you hit the button? It seems to have responded to your post and bounced up a bit [1545 ] [Isnt it always the way]

drillfix

30-12-2011, 12:06 PM

Not just yet Skid, although I am ready to do so when deemed as the "right moment".

Am ready and close, and just need to wait for that moment.

skid

30-12-2011, 01:28 PM

drillfix

30-12-2011, 01:39 PM

Interesting thought there Skid.

And yes, its stumped me with the uncertainty safe haven lack of buying.

I see gold has moved up to resistance again around 155x. Still got my fingers ready to sell but just dont want to get faked out just quite yet.

Skol

30-12-2011, 03:45 PM

The DJIA is up 6% for the year and gold is up 9%, only 3% the diff. now.

Vtrader

30-12-2011, 08:34 PM

Some differing oppinions regarding Gold here, healthy.
For my EWT part, a possible five wave decline finishing currently. Not such a big deal in isolation, but this 5 wave decline was preceded by a 3 wave incline which was preceded by a 3 wave decline. In EWT world that is a FLAT correction, and could be near completion.
I am not currently exposed to gold, but with a nudge in the right direction from here I will get some skin in the game.

From the textbook...
A flat correction differs from a zigzag in that the subwave sequence is 3-3-5. Since the first actionary wave (wave A) lacks suifficient downwars force to unfold into a full five waves as it does in a zigzag, the B wave reaction, not suprisingly, seems to inherit this lack of counter-trend pressure and terminates near the start of wave A. Wave C, in turn, generally terminates just slightly beyond the end of wave A rather than significantly beyond as in zigzags.

Textbook also suggests corrections terminate around probable levels, one of them being the previous wave 4.
It is also possible that this is the first 3 of a greater three, described as a combination correction. From the duration of this 3, a combination correction may take until May 2012 to complete...

In closing my EWT perspective, I note that neither of these possibilities indicate significant and immediate downside.
Thanks Kitco for the chart, seems to enlarge to readable scale if you click on the image.

V.

Huang Chung

30-12-2011, 09:21 PM

There will be no closing of the strait by Iran. In a naval fight, their butts would be wooped in hours.

Skol

30-12-2011, 09:28 PM

Does anyone have any opinions on how the Iran situation would play out for gold if it hits the fan?
Its looking very tense ATM with Iran hinting they will close the straights.
It would almost certainly cause oil to rise,but lately gold has not been necessarily going up on uncertainty.

Correct, another reason the gold party's over. We've had North Korea and the scumbags in Iran threaten to close the Straits.

What's gold do? Go down.

They'll never close the Straits anyway, they haven't got the balls and the result's a foregone conclusion, it'd be a very risky gamble. The USA and maybe Israel would use the showdown to destroy their nuclear facilities and maybe assassinate the leadership for regime change.

skid

31-12-2011, 08:40 AM

Skol

31-12-2011, 09:02 AM

I personally think gold would rise if this happened.
As to whether it will happen,it may not be likely,but I wouldnt rule it out.
iIts possible to disrupt and even stop shipping without a full scale navel battle.
At one point the straits is only a few miles wide.
Airstrikes would probably be doable,but assassination of leadership would be a much tougher nut to crack.

It is possible to disrupt shipping but not for long, the Iranian scumbags wouldn't last 5 minutes in a pitched naval battle, and their homeland would be bombarded with Tomahawk missiles for good measure. The US has bases all over that area and if the Israelis join in they'll make absolutely sure that Iran's defences and nuclear facilities are in ruins.

The Iranian Air Force flies vintage aircraft and without air cover they'll be dead meat.

Gold hasn't moved at all recently, Reuters suggested it should have gone up $100 on North Korea but nothing happened, which probably means gold's going to move lower.

denpal

31-12-2011, 09:37 AM

Alf Field is an EW legend on gold. He came out of retirement to give this presentation.

http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/11/14/keynote-speech-at-sydney-gold-symposium-14-15-november-2011-by-alf-field/

Quote:

"This analysis was prepared on 27 September 2011, the day after spot silver reached a low price of $26.59. The start of the extension was at $26.50 on 28 January 2011. A mere 3 months later, at the end of April, silver topped at $49.50, a very obvious explosive advance. Silver then traced out an A-B-C correction where the A and C waves were declines of similar size at $17 each, a typical EW relationship. At that low point of $26.59 on 26 Sept 2011 – the silver price had exactly retraced the full gain achieved in the explosive extension. The conclusion was that there was at least an 80% probability that the silver correction had bottomed at $26.59.

If gold retraces the exact gain achieved during the explosive advance from $1478 to $1913, which occurred in just seven weeks, it will represent a decline of 22.8%. That is nicely within the above anticipated range of 21% to 26% for the current decline in gold. There is a possibility that the spike drop to $1531 on 26 September marked the low point of the correction in gold. The midpoint of the correction from $1576 to $1478 is $1527, close to $1531. If $1531 was the low, it was a decline of 20%. This is slightly below expectations, but it still qualifies as one degree larger than 13%. At the date of writing (7 Nov 2011), gold has recovered to $1767, which is a 61.8% retracement of the loss from $1913 to $1531 (-$382), a typical size for this type of recovery. That leaves open the possibility (40% probability?) that gold will have another dip to test the target areas mentioned. The higher the price goes above $1767, the greater the probability that the low was in at $1531.

Once this correction has been completed, Intermediate Wave III of Major THREE will be underway. This should be the largest and strongest wave in the entire gold bull market. The target for this wave should be around $4,500 with only two 13% corrections on the way".

Note that gold went down to $1524 a couple of days ago throwing out a hammer.

Skol

31-12-2011, 10:42 AM

The 50 day MA and 200 day MA about to cross, the 'death cross formation'.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GLD&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m200%2Cm50&a=&c=

Skol

31-12-2011, 12:44 PM

Alf Field is an EW legend on gold.

"Expert" Alf Field said in July 2008: "This would cause the USD Index to drop from the current level of 72 to somewhere in the region of 47 to 50".

Alf looks to be an excellent contrarian warning because since that time the USD Index has hardly been below 72, has made 2 excursions to 90 and is currently 80, on its way back up.

Good luck with Alf.

drillfix

31-12-2011, 04:19 PM

The 50 day MA and 200 day MA about to cross, the 'death cross formation'.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GLD&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m200%2Cm50&a=&c=

This minute by minute update of gold and silver (I can understand by the other thread) updates to the actual direction of either metal is Madness IMO.

Not sure if it matters to Skol, but I mentioned it previously, that the weekly chart would be a better indication which is miles from crossing ATM, however the daily is volatile as hell and the 13ema has already crossed the 200ema signalling that the 50 is on its way for the 50 & 200 to meet up and do coffee with each other. BUT, what usually or can happen is, you may get a slight cross, but you also get a bounce optionally as well.

(Talking about the daily that is. And its a 50/50 call should a 5-200 meet)

Anyways, I am not a promoter of gold, nor am I a nagger of it, just sharing a view of the what IF's.

JBmurc

31-12-2011, 07:15 PM

At its low point in September, the All Ordinaries Index was down 19.63% on the year. In the ASX 200, 25% of stocks went up, and 75% went down. Half of ASX 200 stocks fell 15% or more.

Gold priced in Australian dollars, on the other hand, despite the absolute pasting it took in early December, was on track to finish the year up by about 15%.

Skol

31-12-2011, 07:18 PM

The XGD was down 25%, yep, put your money into gold, you just can't go wrong. LOL

Lets not talk hi point to low points, the XJO was down 14% for the year.

Skol

02-01-2012, 02:05 PM

From todays paper:

'On October 3, stocks had dropped 19% from their April high. That was just one point short of an official bear market.
Since then, US housing starts have increased, factories are producing more, unemployment claims fell and US economic growth rose. Those in the S & P 500 have increased profits by double-digit percentages for 9 quarters in a row. T he good news pushed up stocks in the closing months of the year.'

Why would I buy gold and not shares?

Crypto Crude

02-01-2012, 02:42 PM

Gold is good...
been bullish on metals for years...
But with such a high price...
unless your expected portfolio return is small, theres no need to invest...
Unless you trade on margin...

I'd be looking at silver...
...

:cool:
.^sc

Skol

04-01-2012, 03:31 AM

Lucky I've got lots of USD...... whither gold, probably down?

Moves by the Federal Reserve to flood the world with dollars are doing little to dent the currency’s value, bolstering the appeal of U.S. assets at a time when the government needs the support of foreign investors the most.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has appreciated 13 percent from a record low in March 2008 even as the Fed kept interest rates at about zero and printed cash to buy $2.3 trillion (FARBAST) of Treasury and mortgage-related bonds, and is little changed since 1991. The International Monetary Fund said Dec. 30 that the greenback’s share of global foreign-exchange reserves rose in the third quarter by the most since 2008.

That long-term stability shows America’s currency is a store of value and may help explain why the U.S. is attracting record demand for the unprecedented amount of bonds (DEBPMARK) the Treasury Department is selling to finance a budget deficit exceeding $1 trillion. Even though Standard & Poor’s stripped the U.S. of its AAA rating in August, investors see the nation as a refuge from slower global economic growth and Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis.

“The safe-haven function of the dollar is still alive,” said Achim Walde, head of global fixed income and currencies at Deutsche Bank AG’s Cologne, Germany-based Sal. Oppenheim private-wealth manager, which oversees 3 billion euros ($3.9 billion). “The dollar will be strong in 2012,” he said in a telephone interview on Dec. 29.

denpal

04-01-2012, 09:02 AM

skol the USD looks to be on the skids again........interesting to see whether 80-81 resistance is too strong this time.

Skol

04-01-2012, 09:57 AM

You stick with gold, I'll stick to shares, here it is the 'golden cross'.

Whooppee!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJI&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m200%2Cm50&a=&c=

skid

04-01-2012, 10:03 AM

Gold and silver have taken a big leap forward as well as oil. My take is that this Iran situation is starting to effect oil and precious metals.

Gold up $38 [$25 buyers interest+ $13 on falling $US]

denpal

04-01-2012, 11:47 AM

You stick with gold, I'll stick to shares, here it is the 'golden cross'.

Whooppee!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJI&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m200%2Cm50&a=&c=

Sure, there is a pop upwards that will likely occur. But what happens at the next resistance point, we will see. McHugh seems to think a substantial decline is on the cards.

drillfix

04-01-2012, 12:31 PM

Cant say I even look at the DOW or S&P chart anymore as what is the point?

The point is, you are viewing no real truth and pure fabrication which means its a painted chart of which is meant to be seen and believed.

For those that actually know, yield the warnings, that is not a healthy chart regardless of what it looks like. (IMO)

Skol

04-01-2012, 02:17 PM

drillfix

04-01-2012, 02:25 PM

"No gold thanks" Huh? No need for paranoia as I can't recall posting a "gold" sales pitch there.

Telstra is in a uptrend Skol, so good stuff or good entry :)

Stick with it until the chart tells you different :P

denpal

04-01-2012, 05:51 PM

No gold thanks, every share on my watchlist is in the green today. TLS $3.41, up 36% since I bought it incl. Div.

My main plays in the gold sector NST and SLR are up a lot more than that skol over the last 3-4 months.

Skol

06-01-2012, 09:43 PM

My main plays in the gold sector NST and SLR are up a lot more than that skol over the last 3-4 months.

Only partially corrrect, TLS is up 12% + 5% DY = 17%.

SLR is 13%.

I don't think you could compare a couple of struggling miners to a multi-billion dollar company like TLS.

Skol

13-01-2012, 07:11 AM

From Incredible Charts.

'We are unlikely to witness another bull trend, however, unless the Fed introduces QE3.'

winner69

16-01-2012, 05:28 PM

Gold ready to commence it's uptrend methinks ..... 2000 on the cards middle of this year

elZorro

16-01-2012, 08:40 PM

That cheers me up, W69. Here's more from one analyst:

http://etfdailynews.com/2012/01/16/gold-prices-the-gold-trend-forecast-for-1st-quarter-of-2012-gld-iau-gdx-gdxj-dzz-slv-udn/

So EWT people might predict another low yet, before a bull run for gold.

JBmurc

18-01-2012, 10:20 AM

With many global investors still concerned about the price of gold and silver, today King World News interviewed the “London Trader” to get his take on these markets. The source stated, “We’ve still got a very, very compressed spring because the shorts are still trying to defend their positions, their naked short positions in both the gold and silver markets. As an example, in the silver market, you saw that type of activity in the silver ETF (SLV). Shorts borrowed another 3 million ounces to cover immediate delivery concerns. There are 25 million ounces now borrowed from SLV. It is getting worse and worse for them.”

© 2011 by King World News®. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast,
rewritten, or redistributed. However, linking directly to the blog page is permitted and encouraged.

January 17, 2012

The London Trader continues:

“They are naked short on the COMEX and to meet immediate delivery demand they are having to borrow it from the SLV. It is still unwinding and it’s still got a long way to go. Yes, you will still see games being played and yes you can create paper gold out of thin air. But there comes a point where each time you do that the physical buyers are taking it and it has a lagging effect that will catch up, and eventually it gets reflected in the price.

The demand for euro gold here in London is so intense it’s shocking to some of the players. This is what has left some market participants in the US wondering why the price of gold has risen along with the dollar. It’s because demand in the eurozone is unimaginably strong. The euro physical gold demand is off the charts and it is creating shortages for metal, in size, here in London.

The physical gold market is actually being drained by euro gold buyers. People are converting their euros to gold and there is only a finite amount of physical gold available. Again, that’s why you are seeing the dollar and gold rallying together.

We are also seeing very strong markets in Asia with solid premiums. Silver is in backwardation. There are huge premiums for size (large tonnage orders) in silver and you are going to wait 3, 4 or 5 weeks for delivery. There is constant backwardation into the March futures contract. For the most part, the bid on silver spot has been higher than the ask on March futures.

These paper markets are a joke. Nobody who is seriously in the business of taking physical delivery is trading on the COMEX anymore. That is big news. The COMEX is no longer a credible marketplace....

CAM

19-01-2012, 09:14 AM

I found this an interesting read...

How will China's Pan Asian Gold Exchange Revolutionize Gold and Silver Trading?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32678.html

elZorro

19-01-2012, 11:24 AM

Wow, Cam, interesting all right. I was going to say the English and spelling was a bit off, but the writer is probably fluent in at least two languages. Is the message to buy gold and gold shares, and wait until June 2012 to see what happens? This could be huge, and certainly with physical gold as the backup, gains a lot of respect in these markets.

How fast will companies with gold in the ground act to get theirs out, and to buy out smaller players? For them, a lot hinges on the gold price.

Skol

19-01-2012, 11:51 AM

JB,.

Kingworldnews.

A bit like large companies, no bad news or contrarian opinions allowed, only Yes Men permitted.

The reason people love gold is based on emotion according to experts in behavioural finance. Like old religions, what must have worked 2000 years ago just might work today.

The DJIA is 9% ahead of gold in the last 3 months, looks like a turnround is on the way.

Skol

19-01-2012, 02:35 PM

elZorro

19-01-2012, 03:16 PM

There are also plenty of people who have predicted gold to crash long before now, and they were all wrong in hindsight.

http://papermoneycollapse.com/2011/10/gold-%E2%80%9Cbubble%E2%80%9D-bursting-%E2%80%93-i-don%E2%80%99t-think-so/

Skol

19-01-2012, 03:38 PM

I'v been reading an article that says the most explosive gains in stocks are at the end of secular bear markets, we've been in one for 10 years.

Gold's been going up for 10 years, what's that mean to the trained mind EZ?

The bull market in gold is very slowly grinding to a halt.

I'm in the USA and been watching another ad on gold - Monex, why you need to own gold.

From what I hear, Glen Beck has taken his profits, and thanks his viewers for the millions he's made.

elZorro

19-01-2012, 05:33 PM

Only this time, cheap energy and easy profits have become harder to find. With all the major economies running on quite a lot of energy compared to times past, we're in big trouble. The Chinese might be the smartest at working all this out in advance. Over there, many aspire to be able to buy a car and discard their battery powered pushbike.

denpal

19-01-2012, 10:36 PM

Wanna laugh?

I've just been watching a dude called Gerald Celente on RT, who apparently has 80% of his assets in gold.

His are of expertise is predictions, a 'psychic', or after watching this programme a 'psycho', complete with heaps of conspiracy theories.

One of his predictions is that martial law will happen in the USA in 2012, however I wouldn't place too much emphasis on it because he said in May 2010 that before 2011 there would be a worldwide severe economic crash. LOL

skol, surprised that you don't know what's happening in fascist america. It will only get worse, and the sheeple will remain in denial even when they are castrated without anaesthetic. Just like smart Jews fleeing fascist Germany in the late-30's, there is a growing wave of clued up americans renouncing their citizenship and becoming exiles in friendlier places. I've heard quite a few are giving up their american passports for CHINESE PASSPORTS. That's how bad it is..............going freely from "the land of the free home of the brave" to a communist dictatorship.

http://www.sott.net/articles/show/238844-US-Suspend-Habeas-Corpus-and-Enact-Martial-Law-

Americans seem ready to forfeit their most basic civil liberty -- actually, all their civil liberties -- without a whimper.

By a vote of 93-7 the Senate this month approved a military appropriations bill empowering the government to designate any U.S. citizen within the country as a terrorist and to have the military hold him indefinitely without trial and without the right to habeas corpus, the right to be brought before a court for a judgment on the legality of one's imprisonment.

In effect the legislation is a declaration of martial law throughout the country....

Skol

20-01-2012, 07:12 AM

skid

20-01-2012, 10:26 AM

denpal

20-01-2012, 12:43 PM

Military appropriations bill--SOPA-- The first is now passed and in the books-The secound is a very real proposal[voted on jan 21] Those sheep that you are observing all around you are going to be fine--until they do, or think about doing something that doesnt suit the regime[by getting in the way of their profits] Time to open your eyes,my freind

Yes and if they don't like you they can lock you up for years and years with no right of appeal or being brought before a court in direct violation of the constitution which isn't worth the paper it's written on now. Yet skol is still feeling very comfortable...........

Skol

21-01-2012, 03:01 PM

Actually, I'm not paranoid, it's about terrorists, not the man in the street.

Stocks have had the best start for the year in 25 years.

lakedaemonian

21-01-2012, 04:37 PM

denpal,

You've been reading too much brainwashing 'non-mainstream' media like kingworld. Goldbugs are out there like religious fanatics, scouring the earth for telltale signs of the second coming, like the end of time 2012 loonies.

I watched Ron Paul on TV at a meeting for the Republican primaries and he was jeered and rubbished.

Actually everythings going quite well, I've just seen on TV here that the employment figures atre the best since 2008.

The hedge funds and dudes like John Paulson have taken the gold elevator up and when the time comes they're going to ride it all the way back to the lobby.

Have a look at Paulson's co-CEO from Goldman(as well as ex Senator and Governor) John Corzine.

MF Global went down the toilet....billions gone....no one held accountable?

Will he spend a day in jail.....doubt it.

Has anyone been convicted/jailed for the multi trillion dollar mess in the US?

No.

When Oligarchs can OVERTLY financially rape and pillage without fear of reprisal......gold is possibly the least bad option.

When the equities/bond market is rigged against the little guy...gold is possibly the least bad option.

When currencies are treated like $5 whores rather than a priceless asset..gold is possibly the least bad option.

When the residential real estate finance market has been nationalized, would have stroked out without government intervention, and continues to act like a reanimated zombie with extend and pretend bank balance sheets....gold is possibly the least bad option.

Someday gold is going to suck again.....timing the exit is a definite concern....and worthy of considerable analysis and planning...but it's still a number of years off due to continued fiscal, monetary, legislative, and judicial insanity.

"They"(folks like Paulson/Corzine/etc) have been trying to kill gold and silver......like the 80% increase in cash margin requirements for silver in under 1 year and the 22% increase on gold a few months back.

They've been trying to kill gold.....they've been unsuccessful.

Before this is through, we will be seeing $100-200 dollar a day price swings....

BY the time this is over Skol....this is going to get incredibly embarrassing for you.

drillfix

21-01-2012, 11:27 PM

Actually, I'm not paranoid, it's about terrorists, not the man in the street.

Stocks have had the best start for the year in 25 years.

Disagree Skol, its nothing to do with terrorists, they are just an excuse for Govs to do whatever they please when they want to.

As others have said previously (which I agree with), there seem to be many new bills being issued, which they even tried to pass over new years, and whilst no focus or spotlight was on them, why exactly are they doing this, because of the bills are needed?

Like many others, Check this out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8199bduvf8

Gold will go up and down, thats what gold does.

At some stage, somebody is going to pull the rug out from everybody.

At some stage, the game will reset and musical chairs will come to an end.

The above link simply explains why in approx 7 minutes, with no emotion or outrageous explanations, as its quite simple really.

That day, week and month with be this year (unfortunately).

Skol

22-01-2012, 07:03 AM

Drillfix,

Yeah, I watched Gerald Celente the other day in the USA peddling his 2012 'end of times' BS.

He's already predicted a colossal economic crash for 2011 which never came to fruition.

There's always someone out there with a sign that says "repent, the end is nigh', and currently it's him, LOL.

I've made a note in my diary for the 28/12/12 to check that Iran has been attacked, the world economy is in ruins, the banks have closed, the Occupy losers are a massive movement, USD crash, and that there's martial law in the USA, although I'm absolutely certain that the Second Amendment to the US Constitution will ensure there's no martial law in the USA.

No one will need to attack Iran anyway, they're busy self-destructing, the current unofficial inflation rate is 20%/month.

Also noted the post #.

The DJIA is only 9% off its all-time high, my shares and mutual funds giving me that warm fuzzy feeling, because it's only going to get better, maybe a new all-time high. Up 20% since its October low.

This is the strongest start to the year in Wall Street in 25 years, and in election years in the USA the S&P500 rises by an average of 12.18%, could be more this year as the secular bear market comes to an end.

drillfix

22-01-2012, 04:15 PM

Also noted the post #.

The DJIA is only 9% off its all-time high, my shares and mutual funds giving me that warm fuzzy feeling, because it's only going to get better, maybe a new all-time high. Up 20% since its October low.

This is the strongest start to the year in Wall Street in 25 years, and in election years in the USA the S&P500 rises by an average of 12.18%, could be more this year as the secular bear market comes to an end.

With regards to the end of the world, well, LOL yeah ok I can agree with that.

But its a changing world Skol.

I disagree with you on the above highlight though, but agreed that its your opinion and I respect that.

But saying that, how can you be so sure though? answer = you cannot (if you are honest).

There is a bill that the Republicans want to stop:
http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/18/news/economy/congress_volcker_rule/index.htm?iid=SF_BN_River

Perhaps US being 9% off its all-time high is designed to be this way, or appear to be this way and the reason why is like this is simple. You dont question that though or add that to the calculation of what if.

Now, if the republicans block this bill (of which they can), the US Market Liquidity stops and then Guess What???

Yep, the crystal ball will have suddenly ran out of its calculating energy, but then what?

Well, back to what we said, and then round and round we go :)

denpal

22-01-2012, 06:45 PM

McHugh predicts a DJIA decline to 12150 starting now, we'll see what happens. Certainly looks like a perfect mature ascending wedge.

Skol

22-01-2012, 06:56 PM

Is this the McHugh of Safehaven?

He predicted in August 2009 a DJIA with a potential downside of 0. With a catastrophic downwave in 2010.

Great fun all the psychics.

Skol

23-01-2012, 07:36 AM

On CNBC feng shui master Raymond Lo, renowned for his accurate predictions said yesterday:

"year of black water dragon not so good for precious metal".

An understatement maybe, perhaps he was just being polite, so that 1,000,000,000 superstitious chinese don't panic when they find out.

Year of the Dragon starts today, should be interesting. Another feng shui master reckons things get better economically in dragon years e.g in dragon year 1988 things improved after the '87 crash.

Vtrader

25-01-2012, 09:05 PM

Update since last post here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7449-Gold&p=364271&viewfull=1#post364271)
I count minor waves of 1,2,3,4,(1,2,3,4,5)5
waiting for the short leg down to complete the first EWT cycle of uptrend.
Of course it could be some other count, so far it fits with the previous post.
Thanks kitco as always.
V.

3772

JBmurc

26-01-2012, 09:28 AM

Gold smashing higher 1707oz up $40.....FED now pushes out maybe higher than zero rates late 2014 ......

Skol

26-01-2012, 09:35 AM

Gold smashing higher 1707oz up $40.....FED now pushes out maybe higher than zero rates late 2014 ......

Why would you buy gold when there's no inflation?

You used to trot out the hyperinflation and the Von Mises theories as the framework for gold price 'going to the moon'.

Remember?

JBmurc

26-01-2012, 10:08 AM

Why would you buy gold when there's no inflation?

You used to trot out the hyperinflation and the Von Mises theories as the framework for gold price 'going to the moon'.

Remember?

Who said their was no inflation only you an the mass media many countries round the world have high inflation ....gold's not crashing is it Skol ,, been so wrong for so long..

Skol

26-01-2012, 10:32 AM

Who said their was no inflation only you an the mass media many countries round the world have high inflation ....gold's not crashing is it Skol doesn't sux being so wrong for so long..

Just proves my point that the world is full of stupid people willing to pay $1750 with hard-earned cash for a krugerrand. Bull and bear markets always go on longer than you expect and they normally end very abruptly.

No one actually knows how to value gold or silver so it's all guesswork. Keep your fingers crossed.

elZorro

26-01-2012, 11:56 AM

US$ dropping back sharply seems to be only a small part of the reason for this change of $44 in the US$ gold price in the last hour or two. Gold doing better than holding its basket currency value. $37 due to buyers, rest due to US$ drop. (http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html)

The Moneychanger:
Bernancubus and the FOMC announced today that they would keep interest rates low until "at least late 2014" and that the committee "expects to maintain a highly accommodative [read: inflationary] stance for monetary policy." But that's okay because they expect "inflation" to be subdued. To prove beyond all quibble that they have all lost their minds, the FOMC specified a two percent (2%) goal for long term inflation, measured by some price index that makes about as much sense as averaging the price of tire-irons with kumquats and SUVs and calling that an index.

Go look at the five-day charts you will notice that suddenly today the silver and gold charts rise straight into the sky. THAT was when the Federal Open Market Committee made its announcement, and THAT shows you how markets interpreted the Fed's announcement: "more and more inflation."

Skol

26-01-2012, 02:56 PM

US$ dropping back sharply seems to be only a small part of the reason for this change of $44 in the US$ gold price in the last hour or two. Gold doing better than holding its basket currency value. $37 due to buyers, rest due to US$ drop. (http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html)

Interest rates low, gold goes up.

Interest rates up, gold goes up.

USD down, gold goes up.

USD up, gold goes up.

QE2, gold goes up.

No QE3, gold goes up.

Doesn't add up.

David Tuckett, a professor at University College, London and a former president of the European Psychoanalytic Federation said recently about gold:

"It is all about what stories are believed today, and today, while it belies any sort of commonsense that gold is worth twice as much as it was two years ago, this is what people are believing in."

In other words, suckers.

stevo1

26-01-2012, 04:23 PM

So gold is going UP?????6 observations there Skol and thousands of posts and it still dose not add up for you.MMMMMM
Interest rates low, gold goes up.

Interest rates up, gold goes up.

USD down, gold goes up.

USD up, gold goes up.

QE2, gold goes up.

No QE3, gold goes up.

Doesn't add up.

JBmurc

26-01-2012, 06:39 PM

Interest rates low, gold goes up.

Interest rates up, gold goes up.

USD down, gold goes up.

USD up, gold goes up.

QE2, gold goes up.

No QE3, gold goes up.

Doesn't add up.

David Tuckett, a professor at University College, London and a former president of the European Psychoanalytic Federation said recently about gold:

"It is all about what stories are believed today, and today, while it belies any sort of commonsense that gold is worth twice as much as it was two years ago, this is what people are believing in."

In other words, suckers.

Yeah it's like investors/countries see it as sound money accepted everywhere that has always had value since man discovered it...

Skol

26-01-2012, 06:44 PM

Yeah it's like investors/countries see it as sound money accepted everywhere that has always had value since man discovered it...

Well if that's true take a couple of krugers to your local New World and see what happens.

JBmurc

26-01-2012, 07:00 PM

Well if that's true take a couple of krugers to your local New World and see what happens.

well they would most likely state that they only accept NZD.. take a USD into your local New world same thing like Gold you have to exchange you USD,YEN etc for the local currency of use nothing to amazing ....

talking about New world how's me $100 voucher coming along (we only have New world,fresh choice here)

Skol

26-01-2012, 07:10 PM

well they would most likely state that they only accept NZD.. take a USD into your local New world same thing like Gold you have to exchange you USD,YEN etc for the local currency of use nothing to amazing ....

talking about New world how's me $100 voucher coming along (we only have New world,fresh choice here)

Hahaha, you'd be laughed out of your local New World and the word would spread that you're a 'bit different'.

I'm taking care of the other business for next time you're out of town. You'll receive it soon.

elZorro

26-01-2012, 08:26 PM

Gold will not fall back far against the oil price, it will retain value against a basket of currencies, because too many have a vested interest in their savings deposits held in gold. Gold always rises to exceed previous highs, eventually. Therefore it must increase in US$ /oz if the US uses the easiest way to lower their paper debt: to pay it off with inflation.I like the content of the recent Barack Obama speech (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/25/us-usa-obama-speech-idUSTRE80N0Q120120125) though, the rich must pay their share. One senator has admitted he pays tax on millions of annual income, but at the net rate of 15%. Those on much lower wages pay about 30-35%. Maybe this has given some of the rich-listers a bit of a push towards gold too.

JBmurc

26-01-2012, 10:02 PM

yeah Obama's speech sounded very promising a real election vote grabber tax the rich help the middle classes ,stop the wars
--Change we need change!! too bad Obama's years in office hasn't seen much change at all debt has increased even faster bail out's wars

Obama is a puppet his job is to talk the talk to keep the masses happy but walk the walk of the wall street bankers/defence contractors/big phama/super rich masters that fund him remember you need big money to run for office 60mill USD+ etc so you look after the funders don't you..we fund you,, you give us want we want

Skol

27-01-2012, 08:49 AM

The Truth about Gold.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/320565-the-truth-about-gold

JBmurc

27-01-2012, 09:51 AM

well how will the ASX goldies go today Gold 1722oz USD 1622oz AUD some great profits out there from many producers

Skol

27-01-2012, 10:13 AM

well how will the ASX goldies go today Gold 1722oz USD 1622oz AUD some great profits out there from many producers

If the XGD's anything to go by, not too good.

Lower highs and lower lows since April last year.

trackers

27-01-2012, 11:58 AM

skol, surprised that you don't know what's happening in fascist america. It will only get worse, and the sheeple will remain in denial even when they are castrated without anaesthetic. Just like smart Jews fleeing fascist Germany in the late-30's, there is a growing wave of clued up americans renouncing their citizenship and becoming exiles in friendlier places. I've heard quite a few are giving up their american passports for CHINESE PASSPORTS. That's how bad it is..............going freely from "the land of the free home of the brave" to a communist dictatorship.

http://www.sott.net/articles/show/238844-US-Suspend-Habeas-Corpus-and-Enact-Martial-Law-

Americans seem ready to forfeit their most basic civil liberty -- actually, all their civil liberties -- without a whimper.

By a vote of 93-7 the Senate this month approved a military appropriations bill empowering the government to designate any U.S. citizen within the country as a terrorist and to have the military hold him indefinitely without trial and without the right to habeas corpus, the right to be brought before a court for a judgment on the legality of one's imprisonment.

In effect the legislation is a declaration of martial law throughout the country....

NDAA 1540... Scary stuff

signed into law by Obama on 31Dec.... Obama a guy who has been (unbelievably) given the Nobel Peace prize and also was a constitutional law professor who held the constitution in the 'highest regard'....Just repealed the sixth amendment of the constitution in one stroke of the pen, nice going...

JBmurc

27-01-2012, 12:24 PM

NDAA 1540... Scary stuff

signed into law by Obama on 31Dec.... Obama a guy who has been (unbelievably) given the Nobel Peace prize and also was a constitutional law professor who held the constitution in the 'highest regard'....Just repealed the sixth amendment of the constitution in one stroke of the pen, nice going...

yes Hitler was "time man of the year" ,,,,Obama is leading the charge to be yet another top fascist leader ..watch him force another war with IRAN after the election's over with, also watch for another false flag event like 9/11 early this year too get public support behind an attack of Iran an a vote for Obama move to attack terrorists in IRAN bahbah......

Skol

27-01-2012, 12:30 PM

yes Hitler was "time man of the year" ,,,,Obama is leading the charge to be yet another top fascist leader ..watch him force another war with IRAN after the election's over with, also watch for another false flag event like 9/11 early this year too get public support behind an attack of Iran an a vote for Obama move to attack terrorists in IRAN bahbah......

You been having a liquid lunch? Attack on Iran. LOL

The only reason they'll be attacked is they do something dumb, the Iranian warmongers and holocaust deniers haven't got the balls.

Sometimes I wonder where you get all this stuff from, probably the weird stuff that goldbugs read.

elZorro

27-01-2012, 12:55 PM

This should add some more conspiracy theories to the plot: How about that Iran hey?

http://www.infowars.com/india-to-pay-gold-instead-of-dollars-for-iranian-oil/

We've been trying to tell you Skol, oil and gold are fairly well linked.

Skol

27-01-2012, 01:01 PM

Yeah I've seen all that rubbish EZ, it's an Israeli website that trots out the latest rumours.

Maybe it's true, maybe the Indians are smart enough to realise that gold is grossly overpriced and they're dumping it for oil.

skid

27-01-2012, 01:11 PM

I've been having a debate on another thread with JBMurc on gold.
Personally I think it's going to be a fizzer and we've seen the highs for the next few years.
I reckon the stockmarkets could do well for a while and when the gold bugs, most of whom are new at the game realise what they're missing out on will jump ship and cash in their yellow metal.

Opportunity cost, insurance and safekeeping make it a risky investment and in the event of a real crisis you probably couldn't sell it, divide it into smaller pieces or eat it.

Warren Buffet agrees with me and reckons it's a waste of time. The rationale for gold bugs bullishness is the coming implosion of the $US they say.

The USA virtually paid for World War 2, Berlin Airlift and the Cold War for another 50 years all done with debt, like the stimulus.

The early '80's saw a revival of gold for a short period with investment experts imploring punters to buy gold to avoid the coming meltdown but it ended in tears.

This is the first post on the gold thread in dec 2009--price of gold dec 2009-- $1097US per once

JBmurc

27-01-2012, 01:14 PM

You been having a liquid lunch? Attack on Iran. LOL

The only reason they'll be attacked is they do something dumb, the Iranian warmongers and holocaust deniers haven't got the balls.

Sometimes I wonder where you get all this stuff from, probably the weird stuff that goldbugs read.

what you don't think they will attack Iran like they did Iraq on weapons of mass destruction ---Nuclear??

Fact is the US have had a major issue with Iran since they got rid of the US puppet in power decades ago an decided Iranian oil was for the Iranian people the Big US Oil corps don't like this i.e why Libya , Iraq now have different heads of state (remember the head of the states is sponsored by major corps)

One day your bubble will burst an you might see that everything isn't just black n white Skol......

yes Elzorro not only china/india but I understand japan is also buying Iranian oil in other currencies than the USD

Skol

27-01-2012, 01:15 PM

This is the first post on the gold thread in dec 2009--price of gold dec 2009-- $1097US per once

Yeah, up 56% in 2 years, a very clear signal it's grossly overpriced.

Hope you read my post above, #3502.

skid

27-01-2012, 01:26 PM

[QUOTE=Skol;366325]Yeah, up 56% in 2 years, a very clear signal it's grossly overpriced.

Thats what you said in post no.1

denpal

27-01-2012, 01:29 PM

Yeah, up 56% in 2 years, a very clear signal it's grossly overpriced.

Hope you read my post above, #3502.

More like grossly underpriced!

Skol

27-01-2012, 02:20 PM

Well those sellers of NAV will look back 12m from now kicking themselves for selling so low ,If I didn't have a house to pay for I'd be loading up the truck with cheap shares--fear is in control
GOLD is moving steady higher
NAV from june will produce est. 277oz gold per day they will make a profit per day of $155,674 AUD(1362oz aud) gee making that profit per day should really hurt them LOL so far NAV have keep to there plan 100% I have no doult NAV will annouce production numbers this month..
JBmurc happy holding truck loads of NAV & NAVO

Talking of my predictions how did NAV and NAVO go for you JB?

JBmurc

27-01-2012, 02:50 PM

Talking of my predictions how did NAV and NAVO go for you JB?

well lucky I soon changed my mind once the numbers started to add up to a very high cost of extraction an sold all of my NAV at no less than 18.5c(paid 12-13c) much of those funds have been invested in the likes of CCU.PXGOA,CVR end of the day I've been bullish on Gold/silver prices since 2003 have made some very good gains on the likes of- IAU,NAV,DIO,MMN,AYN,IRN,OGC,SVL,ARD to name a few

Unlike yourself I can change my view of an investment if it changes track...your've been wrong for many years an will continue to be for a few yet.... one day in the future I will agree with you that Gold/silver is overvalued an time to sell down positions ...

Skol

28-01-2012, 08:00 AM

Unlike yourself I can change my view of an investment if it changes track...your've been wrong for many years an will continue to be for a few yet.... one day in the future I will agree with you that Gold/silver is overvalued an time to sell down positions ...

If there was some way of valuing gold I might have been tempted, but there isn't, it's only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

It's not investment, it's speculation.

A used car is easier to value than gold, and car dealers are a lot more respectable than the 'psychics' who peddle gold ingots and tell us all how much it's going to go up.

elZorro

28-01-2012, 08:36 AM

If there was some way of valuing gold I might have been tempted, but there isn't, it's only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

It's not investment, it's speculation.

A used car is easier to value than gold, and car dealers are a lot more respectable than the 'psychics' who peddle gold ingots and tell us all how much it's going to go up.

I fail to see the logic in your argument Skol. Gold is valued by the market, that valuation changes, and it's a lot more complex than a used car, which only has a localised, not global, value. Gold's up again overnight, and guess which way the world market feels about the relative value of the US$ ?

Skol

28-01-2012, 08:44 AM

I fail to see the logic in your argument Skol. Gold is valued by the market, that valuation changes, and it's a lot more complex than a used car, which only has a localised, not global, value. Gold's up again overnight, and guess which way the world market feels about the relative value of the US$ ?

Well if that's the case EZ tell me how come all the gold indexes are down for months on end but gold is up, the XGD being an excellent example, but more than happy to provide more evidence if required.

I've been trying to get to the bottom of that one for months.

Either gold or gold shares are badly mispriced.

JBmurc

28-01-2012, 09:17 AM

Well if that's the case EZ tell me how come all the gold indexes are down for months on end but gold is up, the XGD being an excellent example, but more than happy to provide more evidence if required.

I've been trying to get to the bottom of that one for months.

Either gold or gold shares are badly mispriced.

Gold shares are badly underpriced IMHO just look at the margin producers are working with today... when I first looking into gold producers GOLD was round $400-$500oz costs 100-200per oz etc on average... now you have many producers with costs round $500-$700
with gold at 1700 ---300 to now 1100 average margin's etc per oz ...unless gold collapses(unlikely) Many Gold producers cash balances will grow massively an in turn payouts ..also when you look back at the old takeover prices to gold resources today Gold resource values are very low PXG etc

elZorro

28-01-2012, 09:43 AM

Gold shares are badly underpriced IMHO just look at the margin producers are working with today... when I first looking into gold producers GOLD was round $400-$500oz costs 100-200per oz etc on average... now you have many producers with costs round $500-$700
with gold at 1700 ---300 to now 1100 average margin's etc per oz ...unless gold collapses(unlikely) Many Gold producers cash balances will grow massively an in turn payouts ..also when you look back at the old takeover prices to gold resources today Gold resource values are very low PXG etc

Yep, I agree with that JB and Skol. Look at OGC, quite a stable mining situation, (costs have gone up) but gross profits from one quarter were $50mill, and soon they'll be even better. less need for funding from shareholders, rapidly increasing cash balances, and yet at the moment OGC fails to track the gold price like it should. It has drifted down against gold for months on end. Can't see this staying like that, and we'll all know when the goldies hit their straps, it'll be easy money then.