Gold

[JBmurc]

Gold making new highs $1696oz $30+ on open 1689oz at present ,as I thought weeks ago Gold is going higher till the world Fiat currencies are sorted 1800oz likely this year along with Q.E 3 ....

[JBmurc]

I see Obama wants americans to tick up more, loan more, spend more money- to help the US get out of it's troubles -WTF

Gold $1699 ........

[elZorro]

I see Obama wants americans to tick up more, loan more, spend more money- to help the US get out of it's troubles -WTF

If QEIII does happen, the spend should be away from the financial sector, and into energy R&D. Useful work that will save humans from two or three big issues that are becoming more and more real. And it would likely save the US economy too. They could set up giant biofuel plants on arid land, get an economy going in the backblocks.

Meanwhile, Gold continues to spiral upwards.

[JBmurc]

GOLD in AUD just keeps smashing higher $1634oz seems like only days ago it was in the 1400's add in the lower Oil price got to be some happy CEO's of Gold focus explorers/producers the numbers for IGV an EBIT will be gaining in the hundreds to the tens of millions......

CNBC-AUD/USD is going to .95 Gold is going to 2000oz...

brought more PXG an got a small few KMC

[Skol]

If you have look at a NZD/USD chart, its, parabolic, exponential you might say, a bit like silver before it crashed a few months ago, I don't think it's going to be very long before some currencies and metals are going to go in reverse.

What did I say one week ago? The yearly NZD/USD chart is parabolic, going almost vertically downwards at the moment.

[JBmurc]

What did I say one week ago? The yearly NZD/USD chart is parabolic, going almost vertically downwards at the moment.

you say alot of things mostly gold will crash USD will rise as a safe haven bah bah ...... but yes the risk currencies AUD/NZD as some call them on CNBC are going down against the USD hope they go down a lot more is great for the AUD metal prices.. GOLD.SILVER up AUD/NZD down = happy JBmurc
Is my biggest concern for my ASX resource stocks of a collasped USD to AUD


I see the ECB much like what the FED did is buying up debt (printing more free money trying to control bad debts)

[tricha]

Who wrote this, hmm, someone with less than half a brain.
Looking at that chart tricha, anyone with half a brain would sell gold and buy equities.



Put your glasses on Skol, u have not seen anything yet, $10,000 an ounce will be bubble territiory. Sell gold and buy which equitity :confused:, me thinks u have a brain tumor.

1657.16

[Skol]

Put your glasses on Skol, u have not seen anything yet, $10,000 an ounce will be bubble territiory. Sell gold and buy which equitity :confused:, me thinks u have a brain tumor.

1657.16

I got it right on the POO didn't I tricha? And now it's $83 and heading south, I love the smell of JetA1 in the morning, especially when it's cheap. LOL Peak oil - gold's going the same way so hope you've got your ass covered.

[stevo1]

Skol $NZ to $US still above 83c gold at $US $1709. DOH!!!!

[OutToLunch]

Gold $1426

Gold $1705

Your turn

[JBmurc]

I do think we'll see GOLD take another healthy correction before the weeks out back to the mid 1600's before kicking back into gear

[OutToLunch]

I expect so too. Too much, too fast. Even so, a lot of punters have seen this coming from a long way off.

Edit. Having said that, the fact that the word "gold" is beginning to appear in newspaper headlines might suggest we're close to a peak, at least in the short term. We saw what happened with silver a while ago.

[elZorro]

George Soros must have jumped out of gold too quick, Skol..


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-08/gold-advances-to-record-as-u-s-credit-rating-cut-boosts-demand-for-haven.html


Prices have surged 21 percent in 2011, gaining for an 11th year, as the sovereign debt crisis and a faltering economy boost haven demand. While George Soros (http://topics.bloomberg.com/george-soros/) sold most of his gold in the first quarter, John Paulson (http://topics.bloomberg.com/john-paulson/), who made $15 billion betting against subprime mortgages, is still the biggest investor in the largest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its price forecasts in a report released today.


And:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-04/hoarding-gold-beats-charts-over-25-years-technical-analysis.html

[MrDevine]

Is Gold priced in USD? If the USD goes down gold goes up right? So what's the appreciation in NZD terms over the previous 12 months?

Mr D.

[elZorro]

Is Gold priced in USD? If the USD goes down gold goes up right? So what's the appreciation in NZD terms over the previous 12 months?

Mr D.

Gold is priced in any currency you like, Mr D. It's true that a rapidly devaluing USD makes the gold price rise look fairly spectacular, they generally go in opposite directions. As Strat is fond of pointing out, sometimes the PoG increase is not so flash in NZD or AUD. But American and Canadian investors are keen on gold shares too, so the USD PoG changes have an immediate effect on dual listed gold shares (often on the TSX, the most favourable for gold/PGM). You can even see this happening during the day, the shares often follow the US gold price.

These graphs for NZ, AU and US prices show that the biggest economy had the more stable gold trend in fact. Ours was the most variable. Still, over 6 months the general trend was up for all three. If I use this chart system for 12 months the scales get messed up, trend upwards is still there though.

[STRAT]

. As Stat is fond of pointing out, sometimes the PoG increase is not so flash in NZD or AUD. .Im with this Stat fella but $1708 sure is a slap across the mug for Skol. Pitty my Gold stocks aint going along for the ride :(

[elZorro]

My apologies for the typo there Strat, all fixed, no-one will ever know! If those gold stocks did stay up like we all know they should, wouldn't it be easy. Guess we have to wait until it all settles down.

[JBmurc]

Im with this Stat fella but $1708 sure is a slap across the mug for Skol. Pitty my Gold stocks aint going along for the ride :(

No the goldies not getting much love yet many of their IGV an EBIT have gone up 100's millions IGV to 10millions in EBIT...many shareholders to scared to hold
many would rather buy an ETF which IMHO has been a major thorn in the side of many PGM shares an bullion as investors see in the past how the PGM price goes better than the guys producing the PGM but they only buy paper with little real PGM backing or right to own anything but a paper promise ..
PGM shares best way to get investor to get on board is to start to pay divies which IMHO will happen in time for many producers

[tricha]

I got it right on the POO didn't I tricha? And now it's $83 and heading south, I love the smell of JetA1 in the morning, especially when it's cheap. LOL Peak oil - gold's going the same way so hope you've got your ass covered.

Ok so u do not have a brain tumor, just a bit of jetlag and rocket fuel sniffing.
I'll give u one goldie to cover your ass, NGF, 140,000 ounces for the year.
@ a cost of $1000 to produce, go figure.:confused:

[Skol]

You can't go wrong on gold, no doubt about it.

Same as you couldn't go wrong on real estate up to 3 years ago, now look at the mortgagee sales and poverty-stricken punters up to their eyeballs in debt, many of them in negative equity.

I like the money I've got too much to join the herd.

I'm sitting on large amounts of cash and term deposits which is quite boring but a good decision in hindsight - and zero debt.

[Skol]

I do think we'll see GOLD take another healthy correction before the weeks out back to the mid 1600's before kicking back into gear

Gold's climbing vertically JB, what's that mean to the trained mind? A 'correction', if you're EXTREMELY lucky.

Meantime oil at $81.

"175, 000 litres please, fill 'er up."

An excellent example of herd instinct at work in London right now.

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=Skol;353725]Gold's climbing vertically JB, what's that mean to the trained mind? A 'correction', if you're EXTREMELY lucky.

Meantime oil at $81.

"175, 000 litres please, fill 'er up."

yes has had a very good run can't see it running much more than this week,we will see
overnight the US markets got smashed GOLD shares the only shares going up(glad to be holding more gold shares in the portfolio)

[Skol]

Skol $NZ to $US still above 83c gold at $US $1709. DOH!!!!

Not any more NZD .817 and still falling.

Maybe we can beg George Bush to come back and sort the mess out.

A parabolic chart - an object lesson in TA.

[elZorro]

You can't go wrong on gold, no doubt about it.

Same as you couldn't go wrong on real estate up to 3 years ago, now look at the mortgagee sales and poverty-stricken punters up to their eyeballs in debt, many of them in negative equity.

I like the money I've got too much to join the herd.

I'm sitting on large amounts of cash and term deposits which is quite boring but a good decision in hindsight - and zero debt.

Hello, hello, what about airline shares, BT funds etc, you've been brainwashing us about Skol? Not a good investment any more? This tells me you were expecting a crash in equities, but also in the gold price, at the same time?

[tricha]

You can't go wrong on gold, no doubt about it.

Same as you couldn't go wrong on real estate up to 3 years ago, now look at the mortgagee sales and poverty-stricken punters up to their eyeballs in debt, many of them in negative equity.

I like the money I've got too much to join the herd.

I'm sitting on large amounts of cash and term deposits which is quite boring but a good decision in hindsight - and zero debt.


U mean u are sitting on large amounts of paper, nothing more, nothing less!
I'd call it fools gold in this enviroment, 1924 in Germany u had to have a wheelbarrow of your paper to buy a loaf of bread.

In about 1978 President Nixon evoked the gold standard, thats when the states became a net importer of oil.
It's taken this long printing their own money without a backing, for the rot to finally set in and the greatest Pozzi scheme on earth to finally unravel.

Hyperinflation is the only way out for the States, expecting QE3 soon.;)

[Skol]

Hello, hello, what about airline shares, BT funds etc, you've been brainwashing us about Skol? Not a good investment any more? This tells me you were expecting a crash in equities, but also in the gold price, at the same time?

Still have a few airline shares, and others, BT funds, I'm not stupid, I'm not cashing out of BT EZ with return of 18% since I bought in over decade ago.

The crash continues of the NZ dollar Stevo. .804 - keeps falling off the bottom of the chart I use, hard to keep up with. Go out for a yum cha lunch and what happens, the NZD falls by another 1.3c.

Probably the USD going up as a safe haven, right?

Stop boring us with hyperinflation tricha, it's like peak oil, it never arrives.

Oil $76, whooppee!

5 mins later and NZD .801, can you believe it? If you look at the yearly chart NZD/USD, that's what gold's going to look like when the herd finally catch on.

[elZorro]

Hi Skol, I guess gold is going up a bit too fast to be relied on, but it is helping to pull up the goldies with it. I can't help comparing your stellar returns on the BT fund (I'd hope it's an average 18% per year), (which is about 0.05% a day) with gold's increase over the last day of 6%. Too good to last, but wouldn't you like just a bit of that?

Oil will be back up as soon as everything settles down, with a vengance. If gold stays up, oil will try and catch up to it.

[denpal]

One ounce of gold in NZD is now $2,180..........up 21% since the beginning of July.

[Skol]

Hi Skol, I guess gold is going up a bit too fast to be relied on, but it is helping to pull up the goldies with it. I can't help comparing your stellar returns on the BT fund (I'd hope it's an average 18% per year), (which is about 0.05% a day) with gold's increase over the last day of 6%. Too good to last, but wouldn't you like just a bit of that?

Oil will be back up as soon as everything settles down, with a vengance. If gold stays up, oil will try and catch up to it.

Of course I'd like a bit of it EZ, but then I'd be jumping on board with the herd. I've taken a bath just like everyone else over the last few days with the shares I have, but gold is going up so fast that I would say extreme danger is on the horizon. I don't fancy getting killed in the rush for the exit, I'm not greedy.

I haven't missed out by not buying gold shares, they're dogs, even NCM getting caught in the crossfire.

Often it's a sensible option to take your profits while you're ahead but in the present scramble for gold, hysteria rules, great to watch though.

You would think anyone with half a brain could've seen the real estate implosion coming but the herd didn't, and the resultant train wreck has got us to where we are right now.


I said to my Mrs. years ago something bad was going to happen, sold property and paid off debt.


One thing I know for absolute sure, the dopey people who've over-allocated more than they should have in gold will be blaming someone else when the day of reckoning arrives. It won't be their fault, it'll be the Fed, Obama, the rich people and not forgetting the banksters, the manipulators and last but certainly not least J P Morgan. LOL

Just like in London right now, watching the herd is a great spectator sport. We're hard-wired for herd behaviour.

[stevo1]

Not any more NZD .817 and still falling.

Maybe we can beg George Bush to come back and sort the mess out.

A parabolic chart - an object lesson in TA.

NZ $ now at 81.3 cents well done skol gold at $1769 DOH!!! DOH!!!

[elZorro]

It's moving so much, gold may break through $1800 overnight.

[tricha]

Of course I'd like a bit of it EZ, but then I'd be jumping on board with the herd. I've taken a bath just like everyone else over the last few days with the shares I have, but gold is going up so fast that I would say extreme danger is on the horizon. I don't fancy getting killed in the rush for the exit, I'm not greedy.

I haven't missed out by not buying gold shares, they're dogs, even NCM getting caught in the crossfire.

Often it's a sensible option to take your profits while you're ahead but in the present scramble for gold, hysteria rules, great to watch though.

You would think anyone with half a brain could've seen the real estate implosion coming but the herd didn't, and the resultant train wreck has got us to where we are right now.


I said to my Mrs. years ago something bad was going to happen, sold property and paid off debt.


One thing I know for absolute sure, the dopey people who've over-allocated more than they should have in gold will be blaming someone else when the day of reckoning arrives. It won't be their fault, it'll be the Fed, Obama, the rich people and not forgetting the banksters, the manipulators and last but certainly not least J P Morgan. LOL

Just like in London right now, watching the herd is a great spectator sport. We're hard-wired for herd behaviour.

The herds going into cash which is just trash.

Just like airlines that are crashing and burning.

The only way to get a flight soon will be to front up with a truck load of cash or an ounce of gold. ;)

[drillfix]

It's moving so much, gold may break through $1800 overnight.

eZ, hmmm, dont think tonight for $1800 as there seems to be a bit more green showing up globally.

But then this all could be short lived because who knows whats really going on with this whole show, which currently is the greatest show on earth at present..lol

Any bad news or uncertainty then kaboom, straight to your 18 target, thats fer sure.

[stevo1]

It's moving so much, gold may break through $1800 overnight.

Probably moving too fast may well pull back.

[elZorro]

Probably moving too fast may well pull back.

The FED speech doesn't seem to have helped calm the gold price, it's away again. Look at the big range on the chart, Gold has moved nearly $100.

[Skol]

Keep buying gold boys. It's as safe as houses. LOL

In the meantime, what's happened to silver? Going southbound.

[JBmurc]

Keep buying gold boys. It's as safe as houses. LOL

In the meantime, what's happened to silver? Going southbound.

yeah funny times when you see the Silver comex bullion levels dropping great buying Silver bullion over gold IMHO Gold will correct from here back to the 1600's IMHO Silver should hold round these levels before breaking out to new highs later this year Oct-Nov IMHO

HUI up 4.48%

latest from- Marc faber -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnI_HQWvDd0

[elZorro]

yeah funny times when you see the Silver comex bullion levels dropping great buying Silver bullion over gold IMHO Gold will correct from here back to the 1600's IMHO Silver should hold round these levels before breaking out to new highs later this year Oct-Nov IMHO

HUI up 4.48%

latest from- Marc faber -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnI_HQWvDd0

Thanks for that JB, I also keep an eye on club.ino.com, this blog overnight. http://club.ino.com/trading/2011/08/an-extraordinary-admission-of-failure/

[JBmurc]

Or maybe Gold will keep rising,shorters getting crushed LOL -GOLD-1790oz USD-$1756AUD

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/8/10_London_Trader_-_Many_Gold_Shorts_Wiped_Out,_Lost_Everything!.html

When asked about shorts who have been badly mauled he responded, “Well what’s happened with the shorts that were in there is they were absolutely crushed on that overnight rise on Monday. There were some margin calls on some serious players. There were some anguished faces on Monday.

These guys in London woke up with their asses handed to them and I don’t think some of these guys will ever be short again, if they are still in business. So some of these perennial shorts that have always joined in the party got screwed, I mean literally lost everything. For the ones that didn’t lose everything, they certainly lost an awful lot.

Gold just gapped up and didn’t come back and these guys were heavily short. I believe there is still enough momentum to push gold into the $1,800’s. We are moving into season now and things are happening in China that will impact the markets in due course. Because we have been seeing that point of capitulation, we have been witnessing some dramatic moves as the shorts have been mauled, and as I mentioned, in some cases to the point of ending careers.”

[Skol]

The voice of the herd.

Gold went up 6X before it crashed in 1980. Gold's now gone up 6x in the last few years and the gold chart is just as exponential as the greatest wipe-out of all time, the $5 trillion dollar NASDAQ crash.

It's getting very exciting.

[JBmurc]

The voice of the herd.

Gold went up 6X before it crashed in 1980. Gold's now gone up 6x in the last few years and the gold chart is just as exponential as the greatest wipe-out of all time, the $5 trillion dollar NASDAQ crash.

It's getting very exciting.

yes I'm sure many major shorters thought the same till they got smashed last few days ,I bet many would like youself from $1000 been calling gold's a relic
watch it crash any day then after a major correction talk-uplike they were right all along when in fact they have be wrong for years

[gonzo56]

Say hello to $1800

[lewinsky]

In the meantime, what's happened to silver? Going southbound

According to the news today, Gold is at $1795 up $51.30

and Silver up 4.19% to $39.29.

Happy to be holding Airline shares. .......yeah right.

[elZorro]

Have a look at The Moneychanger too..http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/

Gold going parabolic. Franklin still adds this to the bottom of each post..


Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

[Skol]

Lambs to the slaughter. LOL

www.tvnz.co.nz/business-news/kiwis-rushing-buy-gold-4345443

[elZorro]

Lambs to the slaughter. LOL

www.tvnz.co.nz/business-news/kiwis-rushing-buy-gold-4345443 (http://www.tvnz.co.nz/business-news/kiwis-rushing-buy-gold-4345443)

So it's OK for the entire sharemarket to go up and down by 4-5% in a day, but not gold? I think maybe with shorters out of the picture for the moment (and these could be anybody, not a conspiracy) gold is finding a new level, and it will stabilise at some point. Then the shorters will climb back in. If oil prices stay below $80 a barrel, extraction of gold is cheaper, providing miners a better margin for risk. So there is some argument it shouldn't keep rising this quickly.

[JBmurc]

I see the CME have raised margins like they did with the Silver futures market ...Gold's sending a strong message...CME will be told to shut it up quick smart like they did with silver several times till the shorts gained control....think many Gold shorters will be waiting till the CME do at least another rate hike..
longer term CME can hike too- 100% worldwide fiat currencies & banking insto's are up Sh*tcreek Inflation will be forced by the central banks ,Gold is showing how quick these currencies are losing value

[drillfix]

Say hello to $1800

Yep,

In markets like this there is only one way to go for gold really.

It seems both the daily and weekly are overbought, although it can remain like this until lord knows when. Perhaps till the markets sort themselves out and who knows when that will be.

Looking for an eventual test one of these months at the main support at $15xx.xx though one of these days/weeks/months.

[elZorro]

Yep,

In markets like this there is only one way to go for gold really.

It seems both the daily and weekly are overbought, although it can remain like this until lord knows when. Perhaps till the markets sort themselves out and who knows when that will be.

Looking for an eventual test one of these months at the main support at $15xx.xx though one of these days/weeks/months.

Some also think gold must retrace a bit before approaching $2,000/oz. The gold/oil ratio (bottom chart) shows gold out of step with oil, and it did retrace overnight. Still within its ratio range however. Source, Colin Twiggs.

[macduffy]

Deutsche Bank re-affirms its 2012 target price of $2000 oz.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=133262&sn=Detail&pid=34

Trying to have a bet each way I've sold my modest holding of physical gold but have kept IGR.

[Skol]

NEWSFLASH:

Glenn Beck has announced he has sold all his gold and thanks his viewers and advertisers for the nice ride up.

LOL

[trackers]

NEWSFLASH:

Glenn Beck has announced he has sold all his gold and thanks his viewers and advertisers for the nice ride up.

LOL

Who?

Oh some idiot from Fox News, cool thanks for that info

[Skol]

I'm in the USA at the moment and it seems to be a local joke, Glenn Beck pushing gold on his TV program for so long and all of a sudden when gold started to really move up his show was canned.

[trackers]

Didn't consider that, that is kinda ironic.... Glad he got his just dessert in the end never had anytime for that guy

[Financially dependant]

Gold is starting to look toppy....

http://www.youtube.com/tradeguider#p/a/u/0/CvugD6jB7ak

VSA is looking at chart set up for possible major correction (today finish $1746), I am getting more interested in 'Volume spread analysis' all comments welcome..

[drillfix]

Easy does it with the Trade Guider as he sounds exactly like the same dude as this dude from the WIN Investing seminars / courses.

Does the voice sound familiar? http://www.wealthtrainingcompany.co.uk/wtc_stock/index.php

Some nice stuff and what they want is to sell you the program etc etc

I actually downloaded a stack of the wealth training company videos from a torrent a while back. Some good stuff and or tips and tricks and things yet some other stuff is pretty basic, and at the end of the day, without their program, you cannot do much, hence the program TradeGuider.

Also, have a read from previous outcomes: http://www.insolvencynews.com/article/show/WIN-Investing-to-enter-voluntary-arrangement


VSA sure, but if you know what your looking for and have your own live data, volume, charts, indicators, whatever then you already know what is happening or to a good degree anyway.

Hope that helps.


add/edit.

Opinion about Gold?
Well, nothing continues to go straight up all the time. The angle of gold is nice, yet it too must take breathers, and it is healthy for both Gold itself and the Markets. Some gold bugs say gold to 2,500 or where ever. Where does it end? It doesn't until there is a clear picture of both fundamentals and technicals for stocks and the associated markets.

Gold may, could or even test 15XX. dollars at some stage where main support lay. I do not see that as a crash or a bad thing. I am neither a gold bug, advocate or critic. The world is just what it is and until the clarity is there, and the technicals show that we are upwards in stocks then Gold will or can keep going higher or hit 2000 and then do what most global indexes do, stay within a Trading Range for X months or years until something is confirmed.

As always, time will tell.

[JBmurc]

yes healthy correction low 1700's high 1600's next week which will be a great opt to buy some of the better goldies at cheaper levels PXG,KMC micro's
TRY,RMS jnrs my favs atm.

[Financially dependant]

Easy does it with the Trade Guider as he sounds exactly like the same dude as this dude from the WIN Investing seminars / courses.

Does the voice sound familiar? http://www.wealthtrainingcompany.co.uk/wtc_stock/index.php

Some nice stuff and what they want is to sell you the program etc etc

I actually downloaded a stack of the wealth training company videos from a torrent a while back. Some good stuff and or tips and tricks and things yet some other stuff is pretty basic, and at the end of the day, without their program, you cannot do much, hence the program TradeGuider.

Also, have a read from previous outcomes: http://www.insolvencynews.com/article/show/WIN-Investing-to-enter-voluntary-arrangement


VSA sure, but if you know what your looking for and have your own live data, volume, charts, indicators, whatever then you already know what is happening or to a good degree anyway.

Hope that helps.


add/edit.

Opinion about Gold?
Well, nothing continues to go straight up all the time. The angle of gold is nice, yet it too must take breathers, and it is healthy for both Gold itself and the Markets. Some gold bugs say gold to 2,500 or where ever. Where does it end? It doesn't until there is a clear picture of both fundamentals and technicals for stocks and the associated markets.

Gold may, could or even test 15XX. dollars at some stage where main support lay. I do not see that as a crash or a bad thing. I am neither a gold bug, advocate or critic. The world is just what it is and until the clarity is there, and the technicals show that we are upwards in stocks then Gold will or can keep going higher or hit 2000 and then do what most global indexes do, stay within a Trading Range for X months or years until something is confirmed.

As always, time will tell.

Thanks for the feed back Drillfix...I agree the costs are way to much (especially for my trading style) plus a bit like an informercial, trade guider makes a lot of sense to me focusing on spread and volume..I am watching and reading all the free stuff (best ROI...:)). I don't think it is the same guy as www.wealthtrainingcompany.co.uk they sound like different ends of town!

Maybe I will start another thread about the subject but I would love to short Gold next week.....

[Skol]

Maybe I will start another thread about the subject but I would love to short Gold next week.....

You and millions of others are thinking exactly the same thing. Leprosy will be preferable to gold next week.

[drillfix]

Thanks for the feed back Drillfix...I agree the costs are way to much (especially for my trading style) plus a bit like an informercial, trade guider makes a lot of sense to me focusing on spread and volume..I am watching and reading all the free stuff (best ROI...:)). I don't think it is the same guy as www.wealthtrainingcompany.co.uk they sound like different ends of town!

Maybe I will start another thread about the subject but I would love to short Gold next week.....

LOL infomercial...

FD, Maybe not the same guy, but I am 100% sure it is the same trading software as he talks about this in part of the WIN Investing course.

Agree much of these English "I say" type dudes sound the same to me. :P

[Skol]

There's a lot of gossip about banks and the banksters (LOL), but if proven to be rumour and innuendo could see a major rally in the stockmarkets and a plunge in gold.

[airedale]

Hi Skol, I see that you are in the USA at the moment. Nearly midnight on the West Coast or well after midnight on the East Coast when you posted. Give yourself a gold medal and take the rest of the night off. Gold will do what gold is going to do.:)

[elZorro]

There's a lot of gossip about banks and the banksters (LOL), but if proven to be rumour and innuendo could see a major rally in the stockmarkets and a plunge in gold.

Not according to Equedia, Skol. This out today..

http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=orkbnrcab&v=001JbwlstczWI76kUd1jW4xNAfvwg3oeFuQHEW91yBctbMh5 0hEKf-jdbjeLNUApmpb-AqW8vzdEtD-J4pBw16atrsgNZymqz8z1MjGJ7wspLA%3D

More confirmation for goldbugs, maybe we're on the right track.

[Skol]

Yeah, I will award myself the gold medal, a bottle of Jack Daniels 1954 Gold Medal.

www.thewhiskyexchange.com/P-7814.aspx

I'm not in the USA any more but one piece of news the goldbugs will love is all the money the 'banksters' have been losing. Lloyd Blankfein for example was down US$52 million for the week and others nearly as bad.

So if the 'banksters' are in control of the economy how come they're losing all this money? Why aren't they shorting their own shares ?

Gold goes up-it's the banksters.
Gold doesn't go up fast enough-it's the banksters.

Wait for it-gold goes down, it's gonna be the banksters fault.

[JBmurc]

Yes many of the bankers worth is down purely to the decrease in their shareprices but they all will still get muti-million dollar paychecks + bonuses ..an increases of massive personal bullion holdings

-International Bankers control the FED
-the FED loans free money to Banks --
-the Banks were the major funders of OBAMA's run to office an control of the US
-the Banks run all the major Gold/Silver ETF's which in the case of SLV is meant to hold the largest amount of Bullion in the world
-Bankers are well known to control much of the 600 trillion derivatives market

No I'm sure the bankers woiuldn't have anything to do with wants going on ..LOL

[JBmurc]

Near-double profit tipped for Newcrest Mining

Rebecca Le May
From: The Advertiser
August 15, 2011 12:00AM

NEWCREST Mining is expected to post a 96 per cent leap in underlying profit today.

Stronger gold prices have more than offset weather-related production disruptions, analysts say.

Analysts at investment bank UBS forecast Newcrest to post an underlying profit for the 2010-11 financial year of $1.09 billion - stretching past forecasts from other brokers averaging $1.05 billion.

Grant Craighead, managing director of research group Stock Resource, said the gold miner had faced significant production problems during the year to June 30.

These included extreme wet weather at its Cadia Hill open-pit mine, near Orange in NSW, which left the company unable to access high-grade ore.

Repairs to the overland ore conveyor at its Hidden Valley operations in Papua New Guinea also shaved several thousand ounces off planned production.

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
Related Coverage

Newcrest to ride gold to profit Herald Sun, 2 days ago
Newcrest Mining's profit nugget Herald Sun, 21 Jul 2011
Carbon tax to hit Newcrest The Australian, 21 Jul 2011
Newcrest shines on gold output The Australian, 21 Jul 2011
Fault drags down Newcrest outlook Herald Sun, 9 Jun 2011

End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

The Lihir mine in PNG was hampered by power generation problems and low rainfall that impeded its floatation circuit.

Operations had to be suspended at the Bonikro mine in Cote d'Ivoire for several months as civil unrest swept the African nation following disputed presidential elections.

"There's been some pretty big hiccups," Mr Craighead said.

"The strong gold price environment has been partially offset by some challenging operational events in the past six to 12 months."

UBS forecast that for this financial year Newcrest would report a net profit of $1.48 billion after ramped-up production at the PNG mines and the Cadia East underground mine took over production from the near-depleted Cadia Hill open cut.

Mr Craighead said Newcrest could book a reported profit of up to $1.6 billion over the next few years, up from an anticipated $890 million for 2010-11, as technical challenges were overcome and growth projects such as Waifu Golpu in PNG emerged. Reported profit includes certain accounting adjustments.

The forecast by Stock Resources assumes the gold price will be up to $500 an ounce higher than the 2011 average. Being unhedged, Newcrest will benefit from ongoing strength in the gold price.

Newcrest is Australia's biggest gold miner. Chief executive Greg Robinson will report annual financial results today

[Skol]

Well let's see what happens to the SP, because right now gold keeps falling offf the bottom of my chart.

[drillfix]

Well let's see what happens to the SP, because right now gold keeps falling offf the bottom of my chart.

Dude, gold is going to at some stage test the Major Support for the 1st time in a while which is approximately at 15xx dollars somewhere.

No big deal, it goes up, then down, then up, then down.


Ahh well, so does everything :P

[Skol]

JB,
Another example of the master races's engineering innovation. 2 bullet trains collide. No wonder they're buying gold.

http://blogs.sacbee.com/photos/2011/07/china-premier-orders-probe-int.html

[JBmurc]

JB,
Another example of the master races's engineering innovation. 2 bullet trains collide. No wonder they're buying gold.

http://blogs.sacbee.com/photos/2011/07/china-premier-orders-probe-int.html

never said there the master race?.....but they are the crediter's of most of the west-----
---- one must think of the chinese much as the yanks of the 50's growth + better living conditions,tech etc


-Gold moving back towards 1800 looks like it's had it's breath time to move forward on it's decade long Bull trend

[elZorro]

Here's a hot tip for Skol, should perform better than airline shares too.. BTW, what's up with Quantas, 1000 staff redundant.. growth industry.

From Minesite:


At the beginning of last week gold passed $1,700 oz and has continued to climb but we think that gold has still got a lot further to go before reaching its peak. If we are correct then for investors in the SF t1ps Smaller Companies Gold Fund this is GOOD news. If you have no exposure to gold stocks this is BAD news. We would ask: Can you really afford to carry on with no gold exposure?

Following Standard & Poor’s cutting of the US AAA rating, the ongoing concern about outright default of sovereign debt in Europe and inflation levels across the world as Governments prepare for QE3, we think that Gold is the only game in town.

With paper currencies increasingly viewed as flawed we believe that the rise of gold will continue and we expect to see $2,000 oz within months. Of course some folk reckon that gold is a bubble. These doubters made the same suggestion when gold passed $1000 and again at $1500. We think they are wrong once again but of course that is unproven. Assuming that gold does head higher what does that mean for gold miners?

With oil prices slipping it means that they are now generating record cashflows. Yet the share prices of gold miners fail to reflect this. Amid the general market weakness shares in gold stocks have performed weakly as investors sold gold stocks to realise cash to pay for losses elsewhere. We believe that this is a short term timing issue.

Ultimately with many gold stocks now trading on cashflow multiples of just 1, 2 or 3 but with the producers throwing off record cashflows, history suggests that there has to be massive bid action as the producers recognise that the cheapest way to replace production is to "drill in the City" - to buy their smaller peers. We have already seen bid action in Canada and Australia and we reckon that there is a stack more on the way.

This and an investor flight into gold stocks as those with no exposure start to panic must surely drive a massive re-rating. Of course we always remind you that the value of your investment and income from it can go down as well as up and you may not get back a significant proportion of your investment. But at these levels we believe that the risk reward ratio has never looked better.

Gold guru Malcolm Burne, who advises the SF t1ps Smaller Companies Gold Fund wrote just this week:

Gold is now at last accepted as money and therefore only insurance currency around. With energy costs retreating at last and gold producers in Aus and Can looking at better forex margins...gold equities are now gaining traction, much more so as soon as general equities stabilise.

Of course investing in individual gold stocks can be risky and that is why we suggest backing our fund - a carefully balanced portfolio of mid cap producers and near term producers - a pool of likely bid targets in the current climate. Our fund has taken advantage of the disconnect between the gold price and gold equities to buy more shares in what we own on an aggressive scale. If we are correct about gold then the rewards should not be long in coming...

[stevo1]

JB,
Another example of the master races's engineering innovation. 2 bullet trains collide. No wonder they're buying gold.

http://blogs.sacbee.com/photos/2011/07/china-premier-orders-probe-int.html

Extremely unfortunate tragic accident .somewhat a macabre attitude there skolly of a human tradgedy.

Your view of the fiat currencies I take it is entrenched in the era of Nixon coming off the gold standard and the economists view that
A .countries do not go bankrupt.
B that any currency's strength is based on the underlying economy of that country
C Countries are able to "manage" their economy with interest rates and fiscal tightening and stimulise.

then there is the unspoken fact that whomever has the greatest military power gets to have the strongest currency and control of world economy.
$US as reserve currency

All of the above has been written veeeeerrrrrrrryyyy slooooowlly skol so you have time to consider it. gold $1782.38 $NZ/us 83.48

[Skol]

There will never be a return to the gold standard as much as many goldbugs see it as the justification for owning precious metals. Pining and hoping over the good old days won't work.

So far I'm correct, the USD is still the reserve currency as seen in it's rise recently when things start going pear-shaped and the US is by far the dominant world military power.

The reason I put the post there about the rail accident is JBMUrc deifies the asian powers as taking over the world. It won't happen, China is liable to split apart and if you had checked back to a previous post you'll see how many major riots they have there every year.(127,000 in 2008, an average of 347 a day.). Tens of thousands. There's all kinds of horrible accidents take place in China that we don't hear about because it's secret. I also posted a picture of an apartment building that fell over. 50,000 miners die every year there.

One of the most interesting things I've discovered recently is a number of posts and news articles about the amount of PM some of these gamblers own. Some punters have 100% of their assets in gold, including the house, the lot. Very risky. And in addition many 'little guys' as they call themselves are rushing to buy krugerrands and gold eagles, probably the sign of a top.

http://cnbusinessnews.com/market-madness-drives-some-to-the-glitter-of-gold/

[JBmurc]

There will never be a return to the gold standard as much as many goldbugs see it as the justification for owning precious metals. Pining and hoping over the good old days won't work.

So far I'm correct, the USD is still the reserve currency as seen in it's rise recently when things start going pear-shaped and the US is by far the dominant world military power.

The reason I put the post there about the rail accident is JBMUrc deifies the asian powers as taking over the world. It won't happen, China is liable to split apart and if you had checked back to a previous post you'll see how many major riots they have there every year. Tens of thousands. There's all kinds of horrible accidents take place in China that we don't hear about because it's secret. I also posted a picture of an apartment building that fell over. 50,000 miners die every year there.

for a start the USA population isn't even one third of china's or india's

In Hospital Deaths from Medical Errors at 195,000 per Year in USA
By the year 2020, it is projected that 3 out of 4 USA people will be obese.

the reason the USA has the world's most dominant Military power is because they spend over a trillion dollars each year on it
over $3,000 per person in the US is spent on the US Military ---World wide spending on miliatry the US makes up nearly half 47-50% the next biggest only
spends 10% of what the US does...
-US Deficit is running near 1.5 trillion per year....wonder why??

[Skol]

Near-double profit tipped for Newcrest Mining

Newcrest increased their profit 63% and the price has fallen 3.6%. Not much confidence in the POG.

[macduffy]

Newcrest increased their profit 63% and the price has fallen 3.6%. Not much confidence in the POG.

In five years, NCM SP has roughly doubled; AIR is about still at the same level as five years ago; QAN has halved.

Makes having a small stake in gold equities worthwhile, IMO.

[denpal]

http://www.kitco.com/ind/charnock/aug152011.html

Worth a read, gold stocks on the ASX may finally ignite with the double whammy of a falling AUD and increased profitability.

[Huang Chung]

Skol....still nipping away there I see.

For the moment, the score is Gold 1, Skol 0.

[CAM]

Not looking like a bubble if its inflation adjusted

http://dailybail.com/home/chart-inflation-adjusted-gold-price-1970-2011.html

[elZorro]

Not looking like a bubble if its inflation adjusted

http://dailybail.com/home/chart-inflation-adjusted-gold-price-1970-2011.html

Hi Cam, that makes this gold buying look fairly safe for a long time yet. I'd like to see miners racing ahead too, who knows, there might be even bigger bargains round the corner, as in late 2008. Gains made on the other side of any selloff would be life-changing.

And the soccer score: today it might be Skol 0, other posters 5...will gold hit 1800 tonight?

[Skol]

Maybe the equity markets are due for a rally, there's a report that there's the most insider buying since 1998. If that's true wouldn't the major players in gold abandon ship and buy shares?

Gold is high, Dow is low. I'm sure the contrarians have noticed.

[JBmurc]

Skol....still nipping away there I see.

For the moment, the score is Gold 1, Skol 0.

Or in our comp $100 to 0 soon to be $200 to 0 LOL

[bung5]

Hi Cam, that makes this gold buying look fairly safe for a long time yet. I'd like to see miners racing ahead too, who knows, there might be even bigger bargains round the corner, as in late 2008. Gains made on the other side of any selloff would be life-changing.

And the soccer score: today it might be Skol 0, other posters 5...will gold hit 1800 tonight?

That inflation adjusted chart is misleading and total rubbish. Adjusting for inflation, meant the 1980 record high price was actually $2079 pretty close to where we are now.

[elZorro]

That inflation adjusted chart is misleading and total rubbish. Adjusting for inflation, meant the 1980 record high price was actually $2079 pretty close to where we are now.

Bung5: I thought that was the case too, surprised to see the levels there on Cam's chart. How do you know the chart is rubbish though?

[bung5]

I don't know how they did the statistics to make it appear as the chart does. Could be inaccurate all together. Here is a true inflation chart
http://allstarcharts.com/gold-prices-inflation-adjusted/

[Skol]

Skol....still nipping away there I see.

For the moment, the score is Gold 1, Skol 0.

Not quite:

Gold 1, Skol 0, Owners of gold shares -1.

www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-16/gold-market-is-a-bubble-poised-to-burst-wells-fargo-says-1-.html

Wells Fargo Bank(sters): Is that a serious warning do you think?

I'm sitting on some cash. If the bubble bursts there might be some collateral damage to be had quite cheap.

[stevo1]

JB,
Another example of the master races's engineering innovation. 2 bullet trains collide. No wonder they're buying gold.

http://blogs.sacbee.com/photos/2011/07/china-premier-orders-probe-int.html

A little off topic skol but suggest you read 1421 THE YEAR CHINA DISCOVERED THE WORLD author Gavin Menzies for a true indication of Chinese potential,some amazing similarities to what is happening now and into the futur ;)

[Pumice]

acordin to the AFR (August 13-14, pg 24-25)

"Accoding to the world Gold Council, the price of the precious metal, in Australian dollar terms, fell by 4.5% in the year to june 30."

The real gains have only really happened over the last few weeks (in real terms) so unless you are highly leveraged in gold (or had your NZD or AUD hedged), I cant see how anyone is making any money in our part of the world. Its really only doing what it is designed to do, and thats to simply hold its value.

[STRAT]

JB,
Another example of the master races's engineering innovation. 2 bullet trains collide. No wonder they're buying gold.

http://blogs.sacbee.com/photos/2011/07/china-premier-orders-probe-int.htmlThe Trains are Japanese. ( Kawasaki I think?)
Does this mean your post was intended to take a poke at the Japs?

[tricha]

Maybe the equity markets are due for a rally, there's a report that there's the most insider buying since 1998. If that's true wouldn't the major players in gold abandon ship and buy shares?

Gold is high, Dow is low. I'm sure the contrarians have noticed.

I guess u reinforce my perception of Dorklanders Skol. Idiots from nowhere much. All fly planes and r going to crash and burn, hmm. WELL some of them.;)


http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/down.gif
DJIA
10,906.88
-503.33






Bid/Ask
1824.40 -
1825.40


Low/High
1763.20 -
1827.70


Change (javascript:NewWindow('/glossary/LiveSpotGold.html#Change','LiveSpotGold','top=50,l eft=200,width=500,height=350,channelmode=0,dependa nt=1,fullscreen=0,resizable=no,toolbar=0,status=0, scrollbars=1,location=0,menubar=0,directories=0'); )
+35.40
+1.98%


30daychg (javascript:NewWindow('/glossary/LiveSpotGold.html#30day','LiveSpotGold','top=50,le ft=200,width=500,height=350,channelmode=0,dependan t=1,fullscreen=0,resizable=no,toolbar=0,status=0,s crollbars=1,location=0,menubar=0,directories=0');)
+218.30
+13.60%


1yearchg (javascript:NewWindow('/glossary/LiveSpotGold.html#1year','LiveSpotGold','top=50,le ft=200,width=500,height=350,channelmode=0,dependan t=1,fullscreen=0,resizable=no,toolbar=0,status=0,s crollbars=1,location=0,menubar=0,directories=0');)
+598.70
+48.89%

[STRAT]

Dorklanders





































Hmmm
You any good on the Banjo? Tricha

[drillfix]

Hmmm
You any good on the Banjo? Tricha

LOL Strat, love it~!

[tricha]

Hmmm
You any good on the Banjo? Tricha

Considering I was born at Dorkland Hospital Strat, I guess I am.:eek2:

Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding. Ding.

[Jaa]

A little off topic skol but suggest you read 1421 THE YEAR CHINA DISCOVERED THE WORLD author Gavin Menzies for a true indication of Chinese potential,some amazing similarities to what is happening now and into the futur ;)

That book is a pile of fiction.

Just one example.... it references the Museum of New Zealand as being located in Huntly!

Michael King wrote a devastating rebuttal of the whole thing but yet people continue to read and quote it.

[STRAT]

Considering I was born at Dorkland Hospital Strat, I guess I am.:eek2:

Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding. Ding.
I think you missed my point there my red neck Provincial friend :D

[elZorro]

Over my head..I hope you guys don't jinx the gold price, it's very high over in USA dollars ($1840)..great for the goldies.

What do you reckon Skol? Should we all sell out now?

[Skol]

Up to you. It's the old story, the bigger the boom the bigger the bust. There's punters out there who swear on the bible it's going to US$25,000.

Here's something from Forbes magazine dated 9/8.

'Chart history shows that when the market does go parabolic, or into an acceleration phase, it's usually the final stage of a major bull market run.'

"a market top in gold may be near", according to CPM Group, whoever they are.

On the web the gold psychics are very enthusiastic and way exceed the number of analysts who advocate caution.

[denpal]

Over my head..I hope you guys don't jinx the gold price, it's very high over in USA dollars ($1840)..great for the goldies.

What do you reckon Skol? Should we all sell out now?

Yep, and buy paper money at 0% interest..........

[Skol]

Yep, and buy paper money at 0% interest..........

The last 'gold rush' was finance companies and property. Ever heard the expression "I don't want a return on my money, I just want the return of my money"?

[hal]

The last 'gold rush' was finance companies and property. Ever heard the expression "I don't want a return on my money, I just want the return of my money"?

It is quite interesting that most people are still totally disinterested and confused by GOLD. It doesn't sound like a bubble to me. Most people still aren't interested or convinced enough to buy any.

I am not saying it will keep flying in the short term because nobody really knows but the trend still looks strong. Hopefully the stocks will follow soon. In my opinion there is a possibility of a short squeeze coming for gold stocks.

Anyway time will tell.

[tricha]

I think you missed my point there my red neck Provincial friend :D

Sorry Strat I do, please edify me.

Gold is going to the moon and probably back.

If history repeats, we are in for the next great depression, gold was King.:confused:

[tricha]

King and if u do not understand this simple analogy. U r like Skol, Doomed.

Thats why I topped up my insurance today and bought more gold stocks.

[Skol]

King and if u do not understand this simple analogy. U r like Skol, Doomed.

Thats why I topped up my insurance today and bought more gold stocks.

You mean you bought gold stocks as gold is going vertically upwards, readying for the plunge vertically downwards? Hahaha, this is gonna be good to watch.

The goldbugs say a crash just won't happen, the kind of psyche you would expect in a mania.

Here's an interesting point of view.

www.cnbc.com/id/44204552?_source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cother%7Ctext%7 C&par=yahoo

[macduffy]

Here's an interesting story - especially for Skol! Telecom holders may not be as appreciative, though.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/defensive-strategy-turns-to-gold-for-gattung/story-fn91v9q3-1226118429451

[Skol]

Yeah, I was just looking at that with the chart going vertical. Let's see what happens if her fortunes suddenly reverse. It's kinda strange gloating about that in a national newspaper.

[elZorro]

Any time in the current environment you just need a little positive news (for the gold) market to retrace quite a bit, before stabilizing and resuming its uptrend," said Credit Suisse analyst Tobias Merath. "There is clearly a stable uptrend over many, many months."

"At the moment the market is just looking for relative safe havens," said Mitsui Precious Metals analyst David Jollie. "You can see that in the sell-offs across equity markets overnight. The strength of gold is the other side of the coin from that."

The US dollar index slipped 0.6 per cent to 73.835. The euro was up 0.6 per cent at $1.4410.
- Reuters


Read that article about Ms Gattung, thanks Macduffy: the result of an opinion formed while working as CEO at Telecom has been profitable for her. That opinion must have been - that most businesses were on a long-term downtrend.

Funnily enough, we had a super fund with Tower in the years before Gattung as leader, when Telecom was rocketing up in the sharemarket. During that time, Tower was reporting some negative returns and still charging the 7% fee (of course). I wrote a letter telling them to just buy Telecom, it all looked so easy. I learnt later, that a high return from Tower to its contributors wasn't the end game at all, it was the fees and the roping in of the capital. An early lesson about the finance sector.

[macduffy]

Yeah, I was just looking at that with the chart going vertical. Let's see what happens if her fortunes suddenly reverse. It's kinda strange gloating about that in a national newspaper.

Yes, certainly a bit odd.

Much as I think there's room for a bit of gold/gold equities in a portfolio, I find it hard to believe that TG would punt the bulk of her fortune in that way. I suspect there's a bit squirrelled away in a few other investments but that might detract from the story!

[Huang Chung]

With gold now trading well above trend, it will be interesting to see where the gold price heads over the next week or two.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a sharpish pullback sometime very soon...maybe down to around $1,500.

[airedale]

Huang, that would probably be a healthy retracement at this stage. But it may be offset by the start of the Indian wedding and gold buying season.

[JBmurc]

With gold now trading well above trend, it will be interesting to see where the gold price heads over the next week or two.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a sharpish pullback sometime very soon...maybe down to around $1,500.

yes you would think a pullback to at least the 1600oz was going happen,, but now looks likes it could well breach 2,000oz this year..

Great buying in good Gold shares IMHO read a old article from "Aus Resources Mag" was when gold was round $450-$500oz on how the future of majors growing was on the back of jnr goldies resources takeovers etc ,thing was from a list they provided on the recent takeovers at the time an what they had paid per oz to
increase their reserves was on average round $350per oz from the 15+ takeovers ,at present you have compaines like PXG with a Gold resource round 1.385moz the entire company has a value of only $15 per oz( or $30-40 per oz for likley reserves) so you couldn't say with gold at 1850oz that it in any way the likes of the PXG of the market are expensive ....

[Huang Chung]

I agree JB.

I actually see the possibility of gold stocks rising on the back of a falling gold price. Why? Presumably gold will fall when the markets are happy that stability in financial markets has returned to some extent. Equities will then rally, because people will be in the mood to buy stocks. Gold stocks will not be left out, because they would still offer tremendous value.

Pretty much the opposite of what's happening now, with gold rising, but gold shares falling.

[JBmurc]

I agree JB.

I actually see the possibility of gold stocks rising on the back of a falling gold price. Why? Presumably gold will fall when the markets are happy that stability in financial markets has returned to some extent. Equities will then rally, because people will be in the mood to buy stocks. Gold stocks will not be left out, because they would still offer tremendous value.

Pretty much the opposite of what's happening now, with gold rising, but gold shares falling.

Not all Gold shares are falling TRY has gone from 3.50-4.50 over the very short term , I think it's really up to the general market to warm to the fact Gold isn't going crash overnight like some analysts & reporters have be spewing on about ,maybe even some more hedging from gold producers ??? very few do these days.
would prob warm more insto funds ...in the mean time so many ASX goldies are stupid cheap even at 1200oz gold

[denpal]

I agree JB.

I actually see the possibility of gold stocks rising on the back of a falling gold price. Why? Presumably gold will fall when the markets are happy that stability in financial markets has returned to some extent. Equities will then rally, because people will be in the mood to buy stocks. Gold stocks will not be left out, because they would still offer tremendous value.

Pretty much the opposite of what's happening now, with gold rising, but gold shares falling.

Well you should look at the mid-cap producers like IGR, SLR, TRY, RMS, NST etc, all have risen nicely this month.

[elZorro]

Well you should look at the mid-cap producers like IGR, SLR, TRY, RMS, NST etc, all have risen nicely this month.

Also look close to home, GEL, should be a pleasant surprise this week..

Anyone seen the PoG lately? Skol, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, it could break US$1900 as early as tonight.

[bermuda]

El Zorro,
Skol doesn't understand Peak Oil...which is driving the gold price. Bought some GEL today.

[JBmurc]

Rebels funded by Central banks ??
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42308613/Libyan_Rebels_Form_Their_Own_Central_Bank

[airedale]

El Zorro,
Skol doesn't understand Peak Oil...which is driving the gold price. Bought some GEL today.

Hi Bermuda, is GEL on the ASX?

[elZorro]

:)Good on yer Bermuda, my work on the NZX side is done...so if you bought today, and so did I, only we know whom is the keenest..

My apologies Airedale, I do not advertise my picks very often off thread, but this week is kind of special, and I wanted to point out that the NZX or NZAX is not always bereft of a good share run. OGC was a 20-bagger at one stage. In fact, GEL has easily outpaced gains in all five of those ASX shares Denpal mentioned, over the last three months.

[macduffy]

"Gold off charts as prices heading "parabolic"."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-22/gold-goes-off-charts-as-gartman-sees-prices-for-metal-heading-parabolic-.html

[JBmurc]

Yes a larger healthy correction will be coming soon ,still short term the current fiat system has major troubles

worth a watch -esp for the ones that don't understand fiat money / fractional money creation from the Banks

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj2s6vzErqY

[Skol]

Yes a larger healthy correction will be coming soon ,still short term the current fiat system has major troubles

worth a watch -esp for the ones that don't understand fiat money / fractional money creation from the Banks

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj2s6vzErqY


The fact is JB that parabolic charts MOSTLY, collapse, not correct.

[JBmurc]

The fact is JB that parabolic charts MOSTLY, collapse, not correct.

If you watch the presentation your see gold is increasing on the back of the failing fiat currency system

the Debt & world currency creation has been parabolic for years .....after decades of slow increase ....

[Skol]

You would have thought that after the colossal property crash, the GFC and other bubbles in recent years that punters would learn their lesson but apparently not.

Just goes to show that there's a never-ending line-up of suckers waiting to be emptied out. Several times a month I read in the papers about a new scam or business deal that went sour and 'investors' screaming for help.

If the worst comes to the worst with gold I don't want anyone whinging about who's fault it is because it'll be yours.

[trackers]

You would have thought that after the colossal property crash, the GFC and other bubbles in recent years that punters would learn their lesson but apparently not..

Some people are pretty slow to learn their lessons, Skol

[JBmurc]

--there be no whinging here-- but for the anti-gold silver crowd that just don't understand the most basic of monetary principals I'm sure there will be...

-do yourself a favour an watch the presentation skol then plse come back with why the dollar is going be so healthy going forward

[Skol]

Parabolic charts don't respect presentations, the dollar, Bernanke, debt or any of that other BS. I saw it all in 1980.

All we're doing now is having generation X redux.

"It's different this time", Hahahahaa, cracks me up.

[stevo1]

I've been having a debate on another thread with JBMurc on gold.
Personally I think it's going to be a fizzer and we've seen the highs for the next few years.
I reckon the stockmarkets could do well for a while and when the gold bugs, most of whom are new at the game realise what they're missing out on will jump ship and cash in their yellow metal.

Opportunity cost, insurance and safekeeping make it a risky investment and in the event of a real crisis you probably couldn't sell it, divide it into smaller pieces or eat it.

Warren Buffet agrees with me and reckons it's a waste of time. The rationale for gold bugs bullishness is the coming implosion of the $US they say.

The USA virtually paid for World War 2, Berlin Airlift and the Cold War for another 50 years all done with debt, like the stimulus.

The early '80's saw a revival of gold for a short period with investment experts imploring punters to buy gold to avoid the coming meltdown but it ended in tears.


This is ONCE AGAIN how you started this thread skolly .DOH DOH DOH
What is happening IS different this time.
Its all pretty much new territory and none of us have seen this situation before.Gold will definitely overshoot and pull back at some stage
But you have been harping about its demise since 31/12/2009.
At some stage you will be right but that may well be at $5000 or in a days time..

[denpal]

This is ONCE AGAIN how you started this thread skolly .DOH DOH DOH
What is happening IS different this time.
Its all pretty much new territory and none of us have seen this situation before.Gold will definitely overshoot and pull back at some stage
But you have been harping about its demise since 31/12/2009.
At some stage you will be right but that may well be at $5000 or in a days time..

Gold was $1,040/oz then, $1,900/oz today that's +82% in 20 months (31/12/09 to 23/8/11).

[Skol]

This is ONCE AGAIN how you started this thread skolly .DOH DOH DOH
What is happening IS different this time.

OK, OK, you're right I'm wrong!

www.sirjohntempleton.org/articles_details.asp?a=16

[STRAT]

Gold was $1,040/oz then, $1,900/oz today that's +82% in 20 months (31/12/09 to 23/8/11).Only if you are an American. Denpal.

Down under Gold has until very recently gone no where in the last 2 1/2 years

[JBmurc]

"It's different this time", Hahahahaa, cracks me up. yes those people that believe the USD is rock solid an is different this time compared to so many monterey failed systems we see all through history-- gold has held an intrinsic value since 400BC some 2411yrs
ago it goes up an down ,in value against the montery system in place ...currently the International montery system in place is under major pressure....just look at the longterm bonds negative returns to return from real money assets ....

-enjoying watching my gold shares surge again today

[denpal]

Only if you are an American. Denpal.

Down under Gold has until very recently gone no where in the last 2 1/2 years

Up around 35% in AUD over that time period, certainly less.

[Skol]

Psychic Jim Rogers has been forecasting the collapse of the USD and an 'inflationary holocaust' since 2007.


Yeah OK, Jim. LOL

I've been on the USA West Coast for a few days. I don't see any monetary crisis, the place is overrun with tourists, mostly Italian & French, everything's ticking over just fine.

Oh,oh, gold down $50.


www.cnbc.com/id/44237225

[shasta]

Psychic Jim Rogers has been forecasting the collapse of the USD and an 'inflationary holocaust' since 2007.


Yeah OK, Jim. LOL

I've been on the USA West Coast for a few days. I don't see any monetary crisis, the place is overrun with tourists, mostly Italian & French, everything's ticking over just fine.

Oh,oh, gold down $50.


www.cnbc.com/id/44237225

Where did you see that gold price Skol?

Unless its a timing difference Kitco is showing Gold @ $US1861.70/oz - currently down $36.40/oz

[Skol]

Was $1910, right?

[elZorro]

Newsflash: gold can drop back just as fast as it rises. But for the price to collapse and not rise past US$1910 again, would mean an 11-year trend has to be broken. Last I looked, gold was over US$1800 an ounce. It has never been here before. The six-month trend for the US$ basket is trending down, not up.

[denpal]

I like the bit about top-callers looking like microscopic glow worms by the time the banksters are finished........Skol you'll really like this article!

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_082311.html

This is it!
Stewart Thomson
email: stewart@gracelandupdates.com
email: stewart@gracelandjuniors.com
Aug 23, 2011

A maniac is dictionary-defined as a person who is either a raving lunatic or overly-zealous about something. For example, a person could be said to be maniacally obsessed with… details.

I’m overly obsessed with silver and gold stock details right now. I’m obsessed with the mountain of buy orders I have in the market for silver bullion, and for gold stock. For example, as of this morning, for silver, my buy orders are now every 10 cents down.

I labelled the $1462-$1478 price lows for gold as the “zone of doom”, because 93% of gold analysts were documented as bearish at the time of those lows. I spoke of the gold stocks gulag, and that phrase summed up the horrors endured by long time gold stock investors. I spoke of enduring your way to victory.

Click here now to view why you endured the gulag. Party time is here. Rocket launch time is near. That’s a nice rhyme, and a nicer reality. Congratulations to all gold stock astronauts for staying in the space ship, rather than running to mommy at the photocopy machine.

The weekly GDX chart shows an epic volume bar. The bottom line is that gold bullion has set up GDX…. to literally blow the doors off the US dollar. You thought you were in a gulag, but it was a spaceship on the launch pad. Welcome, champions, to the real world!

Some seemed to go into physical shock as gold went near-vertical from $1478, when it was supposed to roll over dead, according to their summer doldrums kiddie script. I’ve labelled this $1478-1910 move in time and price as the pre-parabola zone.

Most analysts, and investors, are trying hard to call a short term top on gold, and are labelling this area as extremely overbought. My question is, “is that really relevant, here and now, in the greatest economic crisis in world history?”

You need to look in the mirror and ask yourself why you’re here, as a card-carrying gold community soldier. In the parabola zone, there are going to be the biggest hits on gold yet, and they are impossible to predict. If I blow up some egos, I apologize, but you need to ask yourself if you want to predict what cannot be predicted, or if you want to get richer.

I believe silver has a head and shoulders base pattern on it that is 30 years in size, and a break-out is imminent. That’s why I’m buying silver every 10 cents down. Not here or there. Every 10 cents down. I’m not looking for “strategic entry points”; I’m mauling the market with buys.

Click here now to view the greatest base pattern in the history of markets!

How high can a 30 year head and shoulders base pattern propel the price of silver? I don’t know, but this price pattern is arguably the largest base pattern in the history of markets, and the question is, are you onside?

The tactical approach to operating in the parabolic zone is to tone down, substantially, your analysis of where price is going, and tone up your response to what actually happens. In terms of size, you need to sell like a bird on strength, and buy like an elephant on weakness.

Europe is burning, the dollar is burning, and governments are burning. Elmer Fudd Public Investor won’t have any stock market investments by the time the final bell rings on this, the big show. He’s going to make the people in the 1930’s breadlines look like they were in the party zone! The bottom line is that the big picture is going out of control and ushering in the gold parabola zone.

Martin Armstrong talks of hedge funds betting on the demise of European “virtual currencies”. He argues that national government bonds are being shorted by the fundsters as though they are national currencies of those nations. He worries that unless national debts are consolidated into a single Eurobond issue, dictators could arise in nations like Greece. These nations can’t devalue their currencies, and the market is devaluing their bonds like they are currencies going off the board!

I’ll add that the euro horror show playing out before your eyes now, gives you a glimpse into the supreme gulag being planned for you by the banksters, with their one world government/one world currency scheme. They know the horrors it will bring to you, and plan to use those horrors to enrich themselves, all the way to the quadrillionaire zone. Yes, maybe it is a good idea to get your hand off that gold top calling button, now.

Maybe it’s also time to give the tick chart technical analysis of the gold market a bit of a rest, and enjoy the ride! Don’t do to yourself in silver and gold stocks, what many have done to themselves in gold bullion already, with their failed top calls. While others talk about how low silver and gold stocks might go if the Dow crashes, I’m sucking up silver every 10 cents down, without a single missed buy. Have you missed any buys? Well, please miss some more, because that’s just more silver for me. Thanks!

The price hits on gold and its blood relatives, in the parabola zone, are going to be ultra-sharp, ultra-short, and ultra-unpredictable. Note that word, “unpredictable” and keep it in mind before pressing your gold top call button. Most of you have no idea how fast the gold punisher can leave you in dollar dust, in the parabola zone.

I expect gold to rise by an average of $100-$200 per day, silver by $3-$5 per day, and GDX by $5 per day, as the OTC derivatives–loaded US T-bond market implodes, in the greatest financial fireball in the history of markets.

The stratospheric price point implications of the base pattern in silver are a direct indication of the size of the interest rate OTC derivatives horror. The bond market is not a safe haven. It’s a time bomb, and the banksters are making their way towards it now, with fuses and lighters. Are you sure you want to play gold top caller here?

Are you sure that an OTC derivatives interest rate fireball that causes the total destruction of the American government bond market is really a reason to top call gold today? Maybe you can time your way through the coming implosion of the bond market. I say all the timers will look like microscopic glow worms, by the time the banksters finish with them.

This is it! We’re on the edge of the gold parabola and, horrifically, most investors seem to be trying to top call themselves out of gold, and onto the breadline, alongside Elmer Fudd Public Investor! My suggestion, instead, is to stay strong. Sell like a bird. Don’t plop into silver or gold stocks. Buy consistently like a machine, on all weakness, with risk capital you can reasonably place. Most investors have no clue how bullish for gold the implosion of the bond market is, and the time is near. I think an event in Europe lights the whole interest rate OTC derivatives garbage dump on fire, but it could be any trigger.

The Dow is almost out of control. The dollar bear market is on the verge of going out of control. The term “out of control” is the key driver of the gold parabola. Look around you, ladies and gentlemen, and you tell me while you have your finger on the gold top call button… are you doing, really, the right thing? I say that it’s the buy button you need to be focused on, and my strongest suggestion to you is that you don’t learn this key fact, the hard way!

[Skol]

Yeah right denny, not many pushing the buy button right now, they've got their fingers firmly on the sell button.

[denpal]

Yeah right denny, not many pushing the buy button right now, they've got their fingers firmly on the sell button.

Except Stewart, he's buying incrementally all the way down he says.

[Skol]

Good on Stewart. Sometimes the price fluctuates around the upper level before making the final plunge.

[JBmurc]

Merkel minister calls for gold reserves as collateral for bailouts
Berlin, Ramadan 23, 1432, Aug 23, 2011, SPA

A leading member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's
government called Tuesday for cash-strapped eurozone members to use their gold reserves as collateral for any future bailouts, according to dpa.

Labour Minister Ursula von der Leyen said in the future that money
from the European Union-led rescue fund should only be paid out when
the states receiving the assistance provided collateral.

Von der Leyen believes that the gold reserves and industrial
holdings held by many nations could be used as collateral for loans,
according to information from German public television.

The Labour Minister, who is a vice president of Merkel's
conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), is also member of a special
new CDU party commission set up to review the debt crisis gripping
parts of the 17-state eurozone.

The commission was established following conflict within the ranks
of the CDU over how to deal with the financial problems facing
members of the currency bloc.

Von der Leyen's comments also came amid signs of fresh tensions
among eurozone members over the 109-billion-euro second rescue
package for Greece, which is due to be pieced together next month.

About five eurozone states, led by Finland, have been calling for
Greece to provide collateral before agreeing to the second bailout
out.

The price of gold has surged this year amid a flight to safety by
investors unnerved by the turmoil in share markets, which has been at
least in part triggered by the eurozone debt crisis.

Gold climbed to a record high Tuesday, when it breached the key
1,900-dollar an ounce mark.

[Skol]

Here it comes.

[shasta]

Spring? :D

[Skol]

I bought the WSJ and Barron's yesterday and there was some very bearish comments about gold.

Barron's ran a 1 page article on Ron Paul, who incidentally, doesn't own any gold. He owns some gold shares which have performed in a mediocre fashion and bets agains the S&P 500, which won't be much fun at the moment. Paul has been railing against the Fed and says he will ban it. LOL.

Barron's reports that Paul has been warning of the great inflation since 1971 when Nixon dropped the gold standard. His warnings seem to have fallen on deaf ears and Barron's says gold may fall as born-again goldbugs cash in or bite the dust. Gold mining shares will pull back even more if history is any guide according to them.

Goldline (Glenn Beck's partners in crime) report record sales especially to 'mom and pop' investors, for many experts the 'ultimate contrarian indicator'.

WSJ says "so far this month there has been a 36% increase in assets in inverse gold funds, which essentially bet against the price of gold".

[JBmurc]

The bull market is not over long-term. The market will reveal its intent based upon the closings laid out. We did NOT get through the NORMAL projected resistance at 1910-1960, so that is good news in that we avoided a PHASE TRANSITION up to 2500 that would have warned we are in VERY serious trouble until the ECM turns in 2015.75

http://www.10sigma.com/files/Gold%2008-24-2011.pdf


I see from M.A chart on the gold monthly uptrend channel since $700 which we have broke out of going to 1900 would likely see gold get as low as 1600 end of the year an still be part of the longer term monthly bull trend

[Skol]

Here's a quote from Winston Churchill.

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning".

We might see history being made. Your grandchildren might joke about the great 2011 gold crash.

[trackers]

26% gold margin requirements hike, apparently:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/and-theres-your-perfectly-leaked-explanation-cme-hikes-gold-margins-again-time-27

[Skol]

I notice there's already been some comments on the internet from some very, very scared gold 'investors'.

Down $113, one of the biggest falls ever.

[JBmurc]

Here's a quote from Winston Churchill.

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning".

We might see history being made. Your grandchildren might joke about the great 2011 gold crash.

Think your find it will be known as the great start to the Fiat credit collapse ...

Gold's not causing the Monterey problems of the world it's the barometer of the safety of wealth since 400BC..

if it does say move into a long bear market that would mean our world fiscal problems have be fixed an FED interest rates would be above inflation not well below so much as to mean you actually lose money if you take out a US bond..

[Skol]

Crashes don't need debt or monetary problems, all they need is a collection of over-enthusiastic 'investors', if I can call them that, and a very steep chart.

Maybe they can put spellcheck on Sharetrader.

Still heading south. Probably all the derivatives, ETF's and very liquid gold assets going to work. Too bad about the dudes that own gold bullion, by the time they get to the gold shop it's gonna be over.

What's gonna happen when the hundreds of millions of Chinese and Indian 'investors' wake up in the next hour or so?

Chinese are very clever people according to Bermuda, they know when to buy oil according to him. At $140, just before the crash.

[JBmurc]

Soak it up while you can Skol this is a healthy correction IMHO Like I've been saying now for awhile

As my Bullion is Silver Either way I pretty much happy to keep holding i.e -Fiat collapse or booming growth -Silver is only second to crude oil for it's different uses

Yes spellcheck would be handy just like a reality check for yourself , some of your great statements..

"It's gonna be over"
"I'd say Ben Bernanke was about 100X more trustworthy than Jim Rogers."
"The party's over, sell all of it"
"Good luck FT says gold will end 2010 lower than $1095"
"Who cares, in times of crisis it's the USD everyone goes for, not gold"

[Skol]

It's gonna be interesting all right, the SPDR gold fund is the world's biggest ETF. What will happen when hundreds of tonnes hits the market as the price drops, and you can bet that Hugo Chavez will be unloading his $11 billion, sorry, $10 billion dollars worth.

Wonder what Theresa Gattung's doing today?

[Hoop]

Soak it up while you can Skol this is a healthy correction IMHO Like I've been saying now for a while

The medium and long term technicals have not been damaged by the big fall today so at this precise moment in time gold is still in a Bull market cycle and until its proved otherwise in the next few days(weeks) it seems the blow off is the safety valve opening up and venting steam ...yes JB so far it can be considered another healthy correction.

Gold has been mentioned often in the media lately...gold is a safe investment..gold is an investment to protect your capital from a flawed international currency...blah ...blah...there are signs of euphoria.....All the usual dodgy outfits are advertising their gold investment packages... all which usually indicate that the bull market is in its late stage of it's Bull Market Cycle....but is it??? Bubbles have a habit of prolonging the inevitable and can over-inflate to gi-normous proportions for months, even years.

The question...Is gold in a bubble?
Looking at a gold chart in US$ it seems the answer is yes.
Looking at a gold chart in NZ$ A$ and other "stable" it seems the answer is maybe / maybe not.

I have put 3 charts up
Stockchart show the dramatic rise in US$ with volume.....The 3 year chart shows the relationship of other corrections with price/volume.
so-called Blow off tops which all turned out to be steam venting. The dramatic way the chart looks enforces a erroneous sub-conscious belief that it's all over this time as it can't keep going up like this.

I have added NZ$ chart (which unfortunately is not in Log scale) It gives an erroneous belief that there's nothing dramatic here so what is all the fuss about?? there must be plenty of upside left.

and an US$ comparison chart to that of the NZ$ chart not in log scale

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/re7n5mdal747k76md3.png

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/sicagqacndu1giaszhp.png

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/wcf92vsyz0p6n6bak5iz.png

[elZorro]

Cheers for that Hoop, thought you were going to burst our bubble, but your charts mimic exactly what it feels like, too early to say just yet. I'm also looking to see if any of the larger industry/manufacturing shares overseas start heading back up, a bit worrying that they have slumped 30% or so.

[JBmurc]

Yes great work Hoop ...going be very interesting see how gold goes overnight I hoping for a consolation in the mid 1700's then depending on bernake's speech
Q.E-3 etc we could see Gold spike before weekend close

decided to take some small profits from some of my goldies holdings today 10-15% return for a few days holding ,will look to buy in cheaper..

[elZorro]

Fair enough JB, I'm too stubborn with mine. You have also manufactured a magnificent malapropism today..


hoping for a consolation in the mid 1700's

Let's hope a line will be drawn at about 1725, or Skol will never let us hear the end of it :).

[JBmurc]

Fair enough JB, I'm too stubborn with mine. You have also manufactured a magnificent malapropism today..



Let's hope a line will be drawn at about 1725, or Skol will never let us hear the end of it :).

I be more worried about a break below 1600 -----
at this stage Gold's going much like silver did after the margin hikes big pull back followed by a consolation period before moving north on the back of the next currency problem which is only round the corner

[Skol]

You have also manufactured a magnificent malapropism today...

Goldbugs are, or were, quite effluent.

[elZorro]

Goldbugs are, or were, quite effluent.

Et tu, Skol? I am probably full of it, but I have one goldie that just might save the day, so I'll stick it out.

[Skol]

Yes great work Hoop ...going be very interesting see how gold goes overnight I hoping for a consolation in the mid 1700's.

Another malapropism, who knows what'll happen tonite, you might definitely need some consolation the way it's going at the moment.

No debt, no gold, no worries, and as Samuel Pepys used to say 'and so to bed".

[JBmurc]

Gold doing as I thought moving but to the mid 1700's currently 1769-90 after the oversold levels buyers back

It seems that the fiat money system is destined to end in either default or hyperinflation

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hamlin/aug252011.html

Bankrupt banks---

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fsubt_gdeBA

shifting some of my funds back to long dated gold company options

[Skol]

Gold doing as I thought moving but to the mid 1700's currently 1769-90 after the oversold levels buyers back

It seems that the fiat money system is destined to end in either default or hyperinflation

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hamlin/aug252011.html

Yeah, Ron Paul's been warning of hyperinflation too - for the last 40 years, since Nixon dropped the gold standard. LOL

[JBmurc]

Yeah, Ron Paul's been warning of hyperinflation too - for the last 31 years. LOL

If you watched the presentation I put up your'd see the history of reserve currency change every so many decades ,better ones last longer rubbish ones like the current Fiat one less longer 31years has been a good term

[Skol]

Jon Nadler says the bubble's pricked JB.

Whaddya reckon?

[OutToLunch]

Fair enough JB, I'm too stubborn with mine. You have also manufactured a magnificent malapropism today..
.

and you articulated an admirable alliteration... :)

[JBmurc]

Jon Nadler says the bubble's pricked JB.

Whaddya reckon?

reckon Mr Nadler been saying that every correction since $500oz I think his daily ramblings are comical

heres Nadler 3yrs ago -Not a good time to buy LOL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jD-y8Wq7N4A

[Skol]

Gold- the greater fool theory at work.

This is the 'mainstream media' so goldbugs wouldn't take any notice even if there was a smidgeon of truth in it. Confirms my notion that it's far better to have a selection of stocks in a variety of currencies.

Who wants to be the tulip bulb turkey of the 21st century?

www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ba41ac4c-ce78-11e0-b755-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1W7Ztuxxg

I've just been doing a bit of reading on the tulip bulb crash for some light entertainment.

The mania was so out of control we would regard it as completely insane but for the dutch it was quite normal behaviour for tulip bulbs to double in value in a day. As in any mania rational behaviour goes out the window; some families parted with 100,000 florins for 40 bulbs, when the average income in 1635 was 200/1000 florins p.a. The usual story, people sold their houses, farms, oxen etc to buy bulbs, the scamsters moved in and then the inevitable finally happened, impoverishing much of the populus.

Some operators released specially trained chickens, dogs and pigs into other people's properties to dig up their bulbs and make theirs more valuable. Bulbs became worth fortunes.

A sailor was imprisoned for accidentally eating a tulip bulb sitting on a merchants tabletop when he mistook it for an onion and ate it with some herring.

It's hilarious all right and ruined the Dutch economy for decades.

Some actually thought that the country should switch from the gold standard to the tulip bulb standard.

[denpal]

Maurice Hubbart's latest: I've found him to be very close to the action this last while.

Gold & Silver: The Smack Down Is Over

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt082611.html

This is an extract: He's got some great charts too, with one of the gold miners looking ready to explode up out of double inverse H&S pattern.

Gold Analysis:

Supply and demand are like truth detectors. Fresh gold supplies are mined and brought to market, but the rate it occurs at is physically limited. Compare the growth in the ability of miners to supply gold to the refiners with the ability of a central bank to print paper currency and decide which item holds the real value for you.

The public is really just barely aware of the fact that fiat currencies are on fire. There are few places for people to run to outside of the fiat currency system. Gold offers liquidity and is fairly portable. What is most important right now is that gold has burst through the upper window of the previous uptrend. It has entered what appears to be, technically, a parabolic superhighway.

The gold overshoot of the up channel has been truly spectacular. It took place around Aug 8th, and I then projected that gold would enter into what I termed, “the smack down zone”.

Gold Smack Down Chart

This chart is a magnified view of the price action I projected would occur at the entrance to the superhighway price channel. This price correction could be your last opportunity to buy before gold goes to much higher prices, and does so at a much faster rate of rise.

I continue to look at the top of the previous upper channel, which is approximately $1700, for the end of the correction target zone. This hard two-day correction feels like a clean-out type of move; a sort of vicious good-bye to gold’s price chasers. I have urged my people to add to gold positions this week, because the smack down zone is also likely your “last chance to buy zone”!

[denpal]

I love this bit: It has entered what appears to be, technically, a parabolic superhighway.

The other guy I like Stewart Thomson says things like this:

Forget about the pipedream of the public buying gold stocks to send them vertical. The public is likely going to the breadline, and they’ve just finished selling their gold to the pawnshop man, for a bag of peanuts and a roll of toilet paper. Institutional money managers are going to pump your gold stocks upside in a way that seems “beyond impossible” now. Don’t waste time now worrying about gold stocks, in hopes of avoiding some “pre-parabola hit” on them. Gold stocks are what this stage of the crisis is all about, and the only question is, are you onside?

And this:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_082311.html
Europe is burning, the dollar is burning, and governments are burning. Elmer Fudd Public Investor won’t have any stock market investments by the time the final bell rings on this, the big show. He’s going to make the people in the 1930’s breadlines look like they were in the party zone! The bottom line is that the big picture is going out of control and ushering in the gold parabola zone.

Martin Armstrong talks of hedge funds betting on the demise of European “virtual currencies”. He argues that national government bonds are being shorted by the fundsters as though they are national currencies of those nations. He worries that unless national debts are consolidated into a single Eurobond issue, dictators could arise in nations like Greece. These nations can’t devalue their currencies, and the market is devaluing their bonds like they are currencies going off the board!

I’ll add that the euro horror show playing out before your eyes now, gives you a glimpse into the supreme gulag being planned for you by the banksters, with their one world government/one world currency scheme. They know the horrors it will bring to you, and plan to use those horrors to enrich themselves, all the way to the quadrillionaire zone. Yes, maybe it is a good idea to get your hand off that gold top calling button, now.

Maybe it’s also time to give the tick chart technical analysis of the gold market a bit of a rest, and enjoy the ride! Don’t do to yourself in silver and gold stocks, what many have done to themselves in gold bullion already, with their failed top calls. While others talk about how low silver and gold stocks might go if the Dow crashes, I’m sucking up silver every 10 cents down, without a single missed buy. Have you missed any buys? Well, please miss some more, because that’s just more silver for me. Thanks!

The price hits on gold and its blood relatives, in the parabola zone, are going to be ultra-sharp, ultra-short, and ultra-unpredictable. Note that word, “unpredictable” and keep it in mind before pressing your gold top call button. Most of you have no idea how fast the gold punisher can leave you in dollar dust, in the parabola zone.

I expect gold to rise by an average of $100-$200 per day, silver by $3-$5 per day, and GDX by $5 per day, as the OTC derivatives–loaded US T-bond market implodes, in the greatest financial fireball in the history of markets.

The stratospheric price point implications of the base pattern in silver are a direct indication of the size of the interest rate OTC derivatives horror. The bond market is not a safe haven. It’s a time bomb, and the banksters are making their way towards it now, with fuses and lighters. Are you sure you want to play gold top caller here?

Are you sure that an OTC derivatives interest rate fireball that causes the total destruction of the American government bond market is really a reason to top call gold today? Maybe you can time your way through the coming implosion of the bond market. I say all the timers will look like microscopic glow worms, by the time the banksters finish with them.

This is it! We’re on the edge of the gold parabola and, horrifically, most investors seem to be trying to top call themselves out of gold, and onto the breadline, alongside Elmer Fudd Public Investor! My suggestion, instead, is to stay strong. Sell like a bird. Don’t plop into silver or gold stocks. Buy consistently like a machine, on all weakness, with risk capital you can reasonably place. Most investors have no clue how bullish for gold the implosion of the bond market is, and the time is near. I think an event in Europe lights the whole interest rate OTC derivatives garbage dump on fire, but it could be any trigger.

The Dow is almost out of control. The dollar bear market is on the verge of going out of control. The term “out of control” is the key driver of the gold parabola. Look around you, ladies and gentlemen, and you tell me while you have your finger on the gold top call button… are you doing, really, the right thing? I say that it’s the buy button you need to be focused on, and my strongest suggestion to you is that you don’t learn this key fact, the hard way!

[Skol]

"Last chance to buy zone" or last chance to get aboard the coming train wreck.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Train_wreck_at_Montparnasse_1895.jpg

[JBmurc]

Did you enjoy the correction SKOL Gold back to $1829 After a nice healthy correction to low 1700's

[Skol]

Did you enjoy the correction SKOL Gold back to $1829 After a nice healthy correction to low 1700's

Yes I've noticed that, very interesting, the goldbugs will be very excited about the return to "normal".

Whew, thank goodness that's over.

http://steadfastfinances.com/blog/2009/11/14/the-psychology-of-bubbles-using-hindsight-to-examine-why-we-bought-into-the-hype

Tops are often characterized by colossal volume and that's what happened the other day, probably the major players getting out and selling to the 'little guy'.



There's lots of historic parallels between what's happening with gold right now and other manias from the past. One of the most sucessfully led manias of all time was the Nazi movement. Germans looked to their leaders; these were ordinary Germans doing what they thought were normal things. My mother has a dear friend who was in the Hitler Youth, she's a normal well adjusted person.

They loved Hitler, Goering, Goebbels, Speer, Bormann and all the other leaders, the same as Denpal looks to Stewart Thompson for leadership and reassurance other goldbugs look to the Aden Sisters, Peter Schiff or Clive Maund, hoping their telepathic abilities will lead them to the affluent promised land.

[denpal]

Yes I've noticed that, very interesting, the goldbugs will be very excited about the return to "normal".

Whew, thank goodness that's over.

http://steadfastfinances.com/blog/2009/11/14/the-psychology-of-bubbles-using-hindsight-to-examine-why-we-bought-into-the-hype

Tops are often characterized by colossal volume and that's what happened the other day, probably the major players getting out and selling to the 'little guy'.



There's lots of historic parallels between what's happening with gold right now and other manias from the past. One of the most sucessfully led manias of all time was the Nazi movement. Germans looked to their leaders; these were ordinary Germans doing what they thought were normal things. My mother has a dear friend who was in the Hitler Youth, she's a normal well adjusted person.

They loved Hitler, Goering, Goebbels, Speer, Borman and all the other leaders, the same as Denpal looks to Stewart Thompson for leadership and reassurance other goldbugs look to the Aden Sisters, Peter Schiff or Clive Maund, hoping their telepathic abilities will lead them to the affluent promised land.

Whereas you buy Telecom down 50% in a decade??????? Your credibility is shot, skol I'm afraid.

[Skol]

Whereas you buy Telecom down 50% in a decade??????? Your credibility is shot, skol I'm afraid.

You're the one whose credibility is shot. I don't own Telecom.

Debating with you denpal is like going into battle against an unarmed opponent.

[elZorro]

Regarding that bubble chart link, Skol, haven't we seen that before? 2-3 times, and it was first put on the web nearly 2 years ago. If you had to put the gold chart against that, the timeline for reckless 'retail' investing would have to be several years. And yet we know there are entire countries and some well-respected investors still buying gold right now. So maybe it hasn't even got past the institutional investors (stage 2) yet. As we have pointed out before, new gold mines are not looking for ore with one ounce per ton any more, it's more like 1 gram average per tonne, 30 times smaller grades. That costs, people have to pay that new figure, and it's tied to the oil (energy) price.

[BIRMANBOY]

Skol, people love to gravitate towards views and opinions that match their own beliefs and desires. Trying to reason with or sway a goldbug to the "other side" is somewhat akin to pi****g into the wind...it just doesnt work no matter how hard you try to point it in the right direction. Its not a question of if gold falls like the proverbial rock its just a question of when. I hope all the goldies are very carefull to extract their profits periodically rather than just buy, buy and buy more. I know I wouldnt have the stomach to be in there.
Yes I've noticed that, very interesting, the goldbugs will be very excited about the return to "normal".

Whew, thank goodness that's over.

http://steadfastfinances.com/blog/2009/11/14/the-psychology-of-bubbles-using-hindsight-to-examine-why-we-bought-into-the-hype

Tops are often characterized by colossal volume and that's what happened the other day, probably the major players getting out and selling to the 'little guy'.



There's lots of historic parallels between what's happening with gold right now and other manias from the past. One of the most sucessfully led manias of all time was the Nazi movement. Germans looked to their leaders; these were ordinary Germans doing what they thought were normal things. My mother has a dear friend who was in the Hitler Youth, she's a normal well adjusted person.

They loved Hitler, Goering, Goebbels, Speer, Borman and all the other leaders, the same as Denpal looks to Stewart Thompson for leadership and reassurance other goldbugs look to the Aden Sisters, Peter Schiff or Clive Maund, hoping their telepathic abilities will lead them to the affluent promised land.

[elZorro]

Birmanboy, perhaps you could suggest which standard shares I should be buying at the moment. I'd far rather hold a goldie share with some exposure to the surety of the gold price, rather than general stocks. And some explorers do become major players, with multi-baggers a real possibility. Beats the likes of Briscoes, The Warehouse, Telecom etc, where you can see the best likely result very quickly, and it's not so exciting.

Here's the Moneychanger for Friday, on why gold started its rise again. The market is not fooled by bluster.


We know from yesterday's events that Our Bosses are terrified, because they loaded the mouth of their biggest Blarney Cannon and fired it: Warren Buffett. Banks US and European are puking sick dogs, and Bank of America sickest amongst 'em. How, O, How will we gull the public into buying bank stocks? We'll get Warren Buffett to announce he's buying $5 billion of preferred stock in BoA. Now Warren ain't operating a charity, so the great humanitarian will not lose a dime on this deal. The preferred stock pays a 6% dividend and has the primary claim on BoA's assets, even before bondholders. Blarn! Blarn! Hear the Blarney Cannon!

Didn't work. Dow sank 170.81, after the early morning Buffet Blarney Barrage.

Then today Our Bosses fired another gun in their Blarney Battery: the Bernanke Blarney Blaster. Bernancubus gave a speech which everyone hoped would explain how he would save the world. Alas, the Bernanke Blarney Blaster mis-fired. Not even enough powder to blow the ball out of the tube.

Beside confirming his utterly incurable cluelessness, the Bernancubus blustered like some cheap, shabby magician that he has Tools You Know Not Of. Mmmmm, 'bout time to dig them tools out, Ben, and put 'em to work! Result of this was something only rarely seen every millennium, back to back Key Reversals in the gold market, which says to me -- and I am nothing but a natural born fool from Tennessee and have never even drawn nigh to them high-falutin' Harvards and Yales where Our Bosses are educated and made Perfect to Decide Our Pissant Destinies -- that not a single shot of the blarney cannons hit anything, and investors remain terrorized by the banks' condition. Proof? The crowds flee still gold- and silverward.

[denpal]

You're the one whose credibility is shot. I don't own Telecom.

Debating with you denpal is like going into battle against an unarmed opponent.

My bad, I meant Telstra as you mentioned that you had some of those.

[BIRMANBOY]

Wouldnt matter what I suggested since you enjoy the excitement of the "chase". As I said I dont have the stomach for it but that is just me. Each to his or her own and yes I do own "boooooooring stocks" like Telecom, warehouse, Turners etc...most have one thing in common ..good to very good dividend yields with limited downside potential. Go for the gusto if you will. But if it was me In your shoes (a goldaholic?) I would make sure I keep some of my "golden eggs" in a variety of nests as opposed to sinking them all into bullion for example. The quest for multi baggers is fine as long as you get one occasionally to balance out the "no-shows". Only you know your results on that one and again it comes down to each persons toleration to risk. Mine is Zero ...yours is Zorro!! Anyway hope you make heaps..before it goes bye-bye.
Birmanboy, perhaps you could suggest which standard shares I should be buying at the moment. I'd far rather hold a goldie share with some exposure to the surety of the gold price, rather than general stocks. And some explorers do become major players, with multi-baggers a real possibility. Beats the likes of Briscoes, The Warehouse, Telecom etc, where you can see the best likely result very quickly, and it's not so exciting.

Here's the Moneychanger for Friday, on why gold started its rise again. The market is not fooled by bluster.

[elZorro]

Wouldnt matter what I suggested since you enjoy the excitement of the "chase". As I said I dont have the stomach for it but that is just me. Each to his or her own and yes I do own "boooooooring stocks" like Telecom, warehouse, Turners etc...most have one thing in common ..good to very good dividend yields with limited downside potential. Go for the gusto if you will. But if it was me In your shoes (a goldaholic?) I would make sure I keep some of my "golden eggs" in a variety of nests as opposed to sinking them all into bullion for example. The quest for multi baggers is fine as long as you get one occasionally to balance out the "no-shows". Only you know your results on that one and again it comes down to each persons toleration to risk. Mine is Zero ...yours is Zorro!! Anyway hope you make heaps..before it goes bye-bye.

Let's just say I understand how tough retail business is, and I do have spare capital outside my other investments, which is all I commit to shares (and one silver bar!). I have done more posting than earning so far, for several years of learning on ST. I will need a multi-bagger to get a decent return on that effort, even 10-20% per year (I wish) is not good enough compared to my other main investment. I'm not a goldaholic, but I have seen how much revenue sits in the mining sector, and when they gear up like they have been doing for the last few years, there must be some money to be made. I'll start panicking about the gold price when all the miners start hedging again. They have the most to lose or gain, and they know more about gold than the rest of us on the sidelines.

[JBmurc]

people love to gravitate towards views and opinions that match their own beliefs and desires

yes I agree many Precious metal investors have a desire to increase there wealth through there beliefs which are far from main stream sheep..

the sheep investors of course like to make out how stupid these PGM investors are for getting on board well before the sheep do which they usually always do neare the end of the run

over my 15yrs of investing I have made very nice profits from boom in -NZ property ,Nickel ,Oil&Gas ,U308 , an now Gold silver PGMs

[BIRMANBOY]

I dont know how a sheep would manage to find itself in a goldmine but obviously its a strong possibility given your comments. The herd /flock mentality is obviously not restricted just to "main-stream" investors. Sure that everyone will rejoice in your successfull investing career and anyone who beats the bank rate is to be admired in my view. Stupidity is not a word I like to use about anyone and perhaps you are putting words in the mouths of others where no such word was mentioned or intended. Healthy debate is usefull to everbody to sound out their own opinions as well as see what others think about it. I note that Gold has a huge amount of posts and opinions and obviously people (including yourself ) have very strong and sometimes opposing opinions. Methinks thou doth protest too much!! Anyone who posts with the regularity and certainty that you do regards Gold might reasonably be thought of as a zealot for the cause. I like sheep ..they tend to look around and dither a bit before deciding what to do...the measured response after getting feedback from the others is not necessarily the way to go but it does provide a variety of options. Since you have done well on every boom known to mankind...whats the next one :-) ? Interestingly I do agree with you that when "everybody" is now into it is usually the point at which the astute investor gets out. There seems to have been a rash of stories and news items and media beat ups recently about gold so is that a "sign from the gods"?
people love to gravitate towards views and opinions that match their own beliefs and desires

yes I agree many Precious metal investors have a desire to increase there wealth through there beliefs which are far from main stream sheep..

the sheep investors of course like to make out how stupid these PGM investors are for getting on board well before the sheep do which they usually always do neare the end of the run

over my 15yrs of investing I have made very nice profits from boom in -NZ property ,Nickel ,Oil&Gas ,U308 , an now Gold silver PGMs

[Skol]

Well said BIRMANBOY, participants ignore the voices of doom, which are often the voices of reason.

I suppose you could assume that I'm something of an anti-gold or anti-bubble poster myself, possibly a 'zealot', having engaged in debate on silver, property and oil as well.

Goldbugs find me very irritating, but I find the debate intellectually stimulating and makes me do a bit of research on my main investments.

You're certainly correct about trying to convince the goldbugs to think laterally. e.g. Hugo Chavez is repatriating 11 billion dollars of gold to Venezuela. The goldbugs portray Chavez as a poor downtrodden third world socialist trying make the best of a bad situation, a victim of US and European imperialism trying to wrest his gold from western 'banksters' who've probably stolen it already.

He's not a dictatorial tyrant that's intellectually and financially bankrupted his country, looted the Treasury a la Muammar Gadaffi and Saddam Hussein, ended up with a failed State that has spent billions of petrodollars on useless military hardware, enriched his cronies, propped up Cuba, managed a 25% inflation rate, enacted unworkable marxist policies and is laying his hands on the gold to win the next election because the coffers are empty.

And the best part of all - the endless absurd conspiracy theories.

I always get a good laugh at work, but the second best place for a laugh is reading the goldbugs paranoia.

[JBmurc]

I note that Gold has a huge amount of posts and opinions and obviously people (including yourself ) have very strong and sometimes opposing opinions.
--Yes its the Gold thread ,opposing opinions on this thread ??

-Stupidity is not a word I like to use about anyone and perhaps you are putting words in the mouths of others where no such word was mentioned or intended.
--well doesn't look like your've read much through this thread Skol has made many a comment against ones on the thread that have followed this Gold bull market as being fools etc

-Since you have done well on every boom known to mankind...whats the next one :-) ?
--right ok 15yrs > Mankind yeah right... ---next one well how about putting across your own view I've done it may times which I guess that opens me too be attacked...i.e I think Gold will not be a good investment ..................... why!!

-I like sheep
--yes I'm sure you do.

-Anyone who posts with the regularity and certainty that you do regards Gold might reasonably be thought of as a zealot for the cause.

--Yes I'm a zealot in making good investment decisions(In turn making money on money) till I believe it to no longer be a good investment if you had talked to me 7-10 years ago you would have meet a zealot of property investing/trading

-Smart investors must do there own study an come up with there own investment decisions --forums are great places to voice ones ideas view-points

[BIRMANBOY]

You say....."Forums are great places to voice ones ideas and viewpoints" Couldnt agree with you more but there is one other important factor missing from this statement. The missing point and appearing to be missed point in this thread is the ability to listen and understand someone elses point. A zealot is someone who unreservedly and unconditionally believes in the theory they espouse. I would suggest that a wise investment decision is not going to be a sure outcome with an overly zealous attitude. The smart investor is not only someone who does their own study but is also open to opposing viewpoints. Many would argue that the price of gold has reached levels or is moving towards levels that are unsustainable. Others say its not even close to the top. Of course the major problem is every advocate trundles out their latest graph or special interest newsletter that supports their view so there is very little neutral balanced debate. In my view it seems to either go one way or another..posters either think Gold is great or Gold is dead. The problem for me is that the gold thread doesnt have any real balance...its either for or against and those types of discussions inevitabley dont actually seem to make much headway. If you look at other threads it seems that there is much more balance in the posts. The Gold post seems to have a much more "my way or the highway" feel about it... almost getting to a point where posters are more concerned with defending their position rather than exploring the ideas. Any investment that makes money is good...doesnt matter if its property, gold or shares. In my humble opinion the best investments are made after one has access to all the salient details...seems hard to get those with gold.
I note that Gold has a huge amount of posts and opinions and obviously people (including yourself ) have very strong and sometimes opposing opinions.
--Yes its the Gold thread ,opposing opinions on this thread ??

-Stupidity is not a word I like to use about anyone and perhaps you are putting words in the mouths of others where no such word was mentioned or intended.
--well doesn't look like your've read much through this thread Skol has made many a comment against ones on the thread that have followed this Gold bull market as being fools etc

-Since you have done well on every boom known to mankind...whats the next one :-) ?
--right ok 15yrs > Mankind yeah right... ---next one well how about putting across your own view I've done it may times which I guess that opens me too be attacked...i.e I think Gold will not be a good investment ..................... why!!

-I like sheep
--yes I'm sure you do.

-Anyone who posts with the regularity and certainty that you do regards Gold might reasonably be thought of as a zealot for the cause.

--Yes I'm a zealot in making good investment decisions(In turn making money on money) till I believe it to no longer be a good investment if you had talked to me 7-10 years ago you would have meet a zealot of property investing/trading

-Smart investors must do there own study an come up with there own investment decisions --forums are great places to voice ones ideas view-points

[JBmurc]

there is very little neutral balanced debate ..........................................well now your here why don't you start some ...balance the debate.....

The missing point and appearing to be missed point in this thread is the ability to listen and understand someone elses point.
--yeah I just can't work out how DEBT + DEBT = sound economic growth

You could add some balance from answering the likes of:

Where do you believe Gold price is heading in the future an why ?

Why do you believe Gold has got to the price it has today ?

Do you believe the currency credit woes of esp. the western world are an easy fix if so how ?

Do You understand Fractional banking an Credit Inflation if so whats the likely end game going from history or is it different this time.

I'm all ears for why buying Good Gold shares etc is a bad investment ...

Disc:I hold no Gold bullion only two pure gold plays within my trading account

[Skol]

I'm all ears for why buying Good Gold shares etc is a bad investment ...

Here's a good reason, because history does not judge kindly those who speculate at the top of a chart like this, this is what the NASDAQ looked like and gold has climbed into exactly the same stratosphere.

www.contraryinvestor.com/imagesCImain/nasdaq071808.png

According to the WSJ the main reason, they believe, that gold shares have underperformed is because of the proliferation of ETF's. Why buy shonky gold shares with all kinds of variables when you can speculate on whether gold goes up or down, leveraged ETF's, whatever you want.


Ron Paul admit's he owns gold shares, lots of them and once again the other day warned of the coming meltdown, sending loads of 'mum and dads' out to buy krugerrands and eagles. Another contrarian warning.

[elZorro]

Here's a good reason, because history does not judge kindly those who speculate at the top of a chart like this, this is what the NASDAQ looked like and gold has climbed into exactly the same stratosphere.

www.contraryinvestor.com/imagesCImain/nasdaq071808.png (http://www.contraryinvestor.com/imagesCImain/nasdaq071808.png)

According to the WSJ the main reason, they believe, that gold shares have underperformed is because of the proliferation of ETF's. Why buy shonky gold shares with all kinds of variables when you can speculate on whether gold goes up or down, leveraged ETF's, whatever you want.


Ron Paul admit's he owns gold shares, lots of them and once again the other day warned of the coming meltdown, sending loads of 'mum and dads' out to buy krugerrands and eagles. Another contrarian warning.

No, this doesn't line up with the reality of gold mining. Most gold shares are doing poorly because their extraction costs are rising fast, and the investors aren't happy with the profits just yet. Many also have large capital costs that they are no doubt bringing forward on their books, while the sell price is high. The result will be that many miners will repay all debt, others will be bought out, in an increasing bid to build global scale businesses to reflect the heavy capital commitment needed to extract gold. Look at the figures, many miners are showing $900/oz costs just to get the gold out, do they not deserve a profit for the risk?

I had a look at your NASDAQ chart, Skol. Isn't it just a question of differentiation? How big is the slope on the gold graph, is it really showing signs of peaking, or is it at the stage of the area I highlighted, simply a bull trap?

[Skol]

'Should an investor jump out here?'

Up to you EZ.

From 1994 to 2000 the NASDAQ went up 6 times until it's historic, $5 trillion crash.

From 2002 to 2011, gold has gone up 6 times, exactly the same amount.

You're suggesting gold is only about a third of the way up, that would make it the most vertical, overpriced, unsustainable chart in the history of the world.

A crash from such absurd heights would wreak havoc, impoverish billions, and set off something much worse than the GFC. It'd make the tulip bulb crash which wrecked the Dutch economy look like a picnic.

You can be sure that something will prick the bubble well before then, if it hasn't been pricked already.

I notice the 'mainstream media' as the goldbug jargon goes have been very careful about this lest they shoulder the blame for setting off a general panic.

One thing that never changes and never will is bubble psychology. I have vivid memories in 2000 of seeing the dot-com fanatics swearing black and blue it was different this time, a new era, new paradigm.

Hahaha, yeah right.

It never is, no matter what denpal or anyone else says.

[BIRMANBOY]

I'm not sure of my interest in an ongoing debate since essentially speculative type investments like new mining and resource shares and metals are my idea of a waste of my time and money. However here are a few points in relation to yours.
(1) Balance can only be provided by someone who has intimate and precise information untainted by 2nd, 3rd and 4th hand opinions. How and where do you get that regards gold? It seems that most information is predisposed one way or the other with gold. At least with shares you get the benefit of an independantly audited set of accounts each year. Gold mining shares are a better option than physical ownership and i would consider buying if the history of the company and dividend history was stable and worthwhile. From my perusal of mining stocks on the ASX very few give dividends so no interest. It seems that a new mine that is reliant on ongoing high prices of gold is very speculative however.
(2) "yeah I just can't work out how DEBT + DEBT = sound economic growth"
We sure as hell are not going to solve and understand complex global financial issues so why bother wasting your time even considering it. Deal with what you can see, identify and understand first. The global economy hasnt collapsed yet and manages to keep going with all sorts of problems.
(3) Where do you believe Gold price is heading in the future an why
I have no opinion with any substance since I recognise that there are far too many components outside of my knowledge base. However my gut feeling is that the gold price will, when it starts to drop, have a correction or two and then plummet like the proverbial rock. I wouldnt want to be anywhere near that especially with physical delivery. Gold mining shares with extraction costs higher than 700 us per oz could be made unprofitable and will close until better days. Picking a figure for the top is just guesswork pure and simple but I do believe that at the current levels there has got to be an element of holders of gold who are going to be tempted into cashing up. My guess is a lot of holders are people wanting to make money and the pressure to harvest the gains will increase. So this will snowball once it takes hold and cause the drop to accelerate. There will be fewer and fewer people willing to buy at historically high levels so demand will dry up. The higher it goes the greater the pressure....exactly where is anyones guess.
(4) Why do you believe Gold has got to the price it has today ?
Speculators and people looking for a hedge against currency meltdowns and erosion of their capital base. You can understand this when the interest rates in the US are virtually zero % and stock investors have suffered losses and seen the value of the USD eroding. Practically there is no reasonable reason for the rise since the use of gold in jewellery and dowrie dough for third worlders is evidently not the underlying reason. Even more buying of jewellery by the growing wealthy Chinese cant account for price rise.
(5) Do you believe the currency credit woes of esp. the western world are an easy fix if so how ?
Well they probably wont listen to me... but if they are...stop spending what you dont have might be a good place to start.
(6) Do You understand Fractional banking an Credit Inflation if so whats the likely end game going from history or is it different this time
I'm an optimist...these things will get sorted eventually and me understanding "fractional banking" wont assist in any way at all.
(7)I'm all ears for why buying Good Gold shares etc is a bad investment ...
If they are long term solid stable companies with good dividends I might invest myself, but most dont meet my dividend criteria.
To me the definition of an "investment" is a project or endeavor in which one contributes time , energy or money in the "reasonable and probable expectation" of getting a return or "interest" as well as being able to retain the capital value of the original contribution. If you replace "expectation" with "hope" then its not an investment but a speculative venture. When you are younger or have "play" money then specs are fun and i suppose can be big payers occasionally. As you get older caution and conservativism tend to dominate. As I said balance is important.



there is very little neutral balanced debate ..........................................well now your here why don't you start some ...balance the debate.....

The missing point and appearing to be missed point in this thread is the ability to listen and understand someone elses point.
--yeah I just can't work out how DEBT + DEBT = sound economic growth

You could add some balance from answering the likes of:

Where do you believe Gold price is heading in the future an why ?

Why do you believe Gold has got to the price it has today ?

Do you believe the currency credit woes of esp. the western world are an easy fix if so how ?

Do You understand Fractional banking an Credit Inflation if so whats the likely end game going from history or is it different this time.

I'm all ears for why buying Good Gold shares etc is a bad investment ...

Disc:I hold no Gold bullion only two pure gold plays within my trading account

[denpal]

'Should an investor jump out here?'

Up to you EZ.

From 1994 to 2000 the NASDAQ went up 6 times until it's historic, $5 trillion crash.

From 2002 to 2011, gold has gone up 6 times, exactly the same amount.

You're suggesting gold is only about a third of the way up, that would make it the most vertical, overpriced, unsustainable chart in the history of the world.

A crash from such absurd heights would wreak havoc, impoverish billions, and set off something much worse than the GFC.

You can be sure that something will prick the bubble well before then, if it hasn't been pricked already.

I notice the 'mainstream media' as the goldbug jargon goes have been very careful about this lest they shoulder the blame for setting off a general panic.

One thing that never changes and never will is bubble psychology. I have vivid memories in 2000 of seeing the dot-com fanatics swearing black and blue it was different this time, a new era, new paradigm.

Hahaha, yeah right.

It never is, no matter what denpal or anyone else says.

I'm not saying anything, I'm just investing in a great trend. If and when it ends I'll step off, hopefully within 30% of the top.

[Hoop]

A posted a bubble chart from sharelynx.com back in early May but I can't find it....anyway... below is the update. I don't know the exact date they used for this chart whether it was before or after this recent correction/peak but the previous bubble chart I posted somewhere had Gold at 492% and silver at 770%...so the bubble has inflated.
The tulip bubble is mentioned at 5900% along side the good company of the 2008GFC victims

Note that the vertical scale is log

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/m4icgp8up549g81023gl.png

[elZorro]

Birmanboy:
Why do you believe Gold has got to the price it has today ?
Speculators and people looking for a hedge against currency meltdowns and erosion of their capital base. You can understand this when the interest rates in the US are virtually zero % and stock investors have suffered losses and seen the value of the USD eroding. Practically there is no reasonable reason for the rise since the use of gold in jewellery and dowrie dough for third worlders is evidently not the underlying reason. Even more buying of jewellery by the growing wealthy Chinese cant account for price rise.


Mostly good points you made, but don't forget the strong link between gold and the price of energy (oil). If a fraction of the profits from oil sales get stored as gold bars (anyone have the figures?) would that be a major reason also?

Hoop, thanks for the chart, I rest my case. Land appears to be one of the quickest correcting bubbles, at two hundred percent or less. Gold could reach a 2,000% increase, and is currently at about 600%. For most of that leadup, it has been a steady increase over many years. Internet stocks have been amongst the worst. Even oil reached 1255%.

But if gold really is linked to oil and a safe haven, then Skol's other favourite subject (about how we will have no shortage of oil), becomes more than academic.

[BIRMANBOY]

El Zorro you say
"but don't forget the strong link between gold and the price of energy (oil). If a fraction of the profits from oil sales get stored as gold bars (anyone have the figures?) would that be a major reason also?

I dont know about forgetting it!! I wasnt aware of it!! It sounds like something a few lucky people perhaps might think about, but since i am not on the CC list for the Saudi royal family newsletter I have to rely on your "information" in that area. I would surmise that most oil barons convert their petro-billions into Swiss pharmaceutical firms and Manhatten real estate. However, lets for arguement sake take the plunge and say thats its a possibility....so what...you dont think they wontl cash up if the moment comes and they sense the price is unsustainable. The underlying problem with physical gold is if you put too much in an escape helicopter it wont fly :-)

EL Zoro says.
Mostly good points you made, but don't forget the strong link between gold and the price of energy (oil). If a fraction of the profits from oil sales get stored as gold bars (anyone have the figures?) would that be a major reason also?

Hoop, thanks for the chart, I rest my case. Land appears to be one of the quickest correcting bubbles, at two hundred percent or less. Gold could reach a 2,000% increase, and is currently at about 600%. For most of that leadup, it has been a steady increase over many years. Internet stocks have been amongst the worst. Even oil reached 1255%.

But if gold really is linked to oil and a safe haven, then Skol's other favourite subject (about how we will have no shortage of oil), becomes more than academic.[/QUOTE]

[Skol]

Birmanboy:

Mostly good points you made, but don't forget the strong link between gold and the price of energy (oil). If a fraction of the profits from oil sales get stored as gold bars (anyone have the figures?) would that be a major reason also?

Hoop, thanks for the chart, I rest my case. Land appears to be one of the quickest correcting bubbles, at two hundred percent or less. Gold could reach a 2,000% increase, and is currently at about 600%. For most of that leadup, it has been a steady increase over many years. Internet stocks have been amongst the worst. Even oil reached 1255%.

But if gold really is linked to oil and a safe haven, then Skol's other favourite subject (about how we will have no shortage of oil), becomes more than academic.

The WSJ says the historic gold/oil ratio is 15:1.

Gold is $1800 so oil should be $120.
Oil is $80 so gold should be $1200

Which one?

[elZorro]

Birmanboy, maybe we're both old enough to know that things aren't black and white, more a shade of grey. Gold isn't just a yellow metal of dubious worth, it's partly currency, and it holds its value through time (OK, a bit up and down) compared to other goods that humans might use. Here's a link to oil production, and scenarios for the years ahead (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PU200611_Fig1.png).

So most pundits predict oil to become more scarce, that will increase its price. Right now, 90 million barrels a day are being consumed, at an average trade cost of US$100/barrel, let's assume 33% profit, so about $1,000,000 million dollars of profit each year to be used up somehow. This doesn't include downstream profits from everything made from oil, the retail margins, other enterprises the barons get into. Cheap oil made the USA prosperous, and that's why they're not doing so well now. That raw oil profit could buy 570 million ounces of gold per year. Annual production is only 85 million ounces per year, and there is competition for that. Compared to other options like keeping the profits in US$ or stocks, history is on the side of gold hoarding for the moment.

Here's a bit of info on the strong link between oil and gold prices. It's fairly compelling.

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/economy/gold_oil_ratio.php

[elZorro]

The WSJ says the historic gold/oil ratio is 15:1.

Gold is $1800 so oil should be $120.
Oil is $80 so gold should be $1200

Which one?

Guess it depends on which type of oil Skol:). Anyway the ratio might have an average of 15:1, but it stays in a channel around that generally.

[BIRMANBOY]

El Zorro, sorry bud but you are confusing the issue here...If you make the assumption that somehow the 2 commodities of oil and gold are somehow linked together in some sort of symbiotic alliance why stop there...just add in the Euro, property prices in Grey Lyn and of course the US dollar and dont forget the Chinese ownership of US bonds. Jees man..its hard enough exploring one element without adding in other extraneous factors. Keep it simple. Is gold overpriced or isnt it. People make careers out of discussing reasons why but the question should be simply..What would you rather own A $2000 gold coin or $2000 worth of Telecom shares. Whats the answer? Well it depends on timing doesnt it...right now I'd rather own the shares. What you do is of course up to you. End of story. Also I should point out that gold is NOT currency...Countdown wont give you change from your Maple Leaf. You still have to sell your coin to get real currency thats usuable. And obviously if you paid 2000 for your coin and the bottom dropped out of the market you wont be a happy camper. The only thing that gold is good for is making pretty shiny baubles for those of us who want to impress others. It has several great features that have been recognised for ages which has allowed it to maintain its appeal. Its malleable so can be shaped and forged and fashioned into items of adornment. Its vrtually indestructible. It appeals to our aesthetic sense of beauty because of its rich "sunlike" appearance. It can be alloyed with other metals to make it more durable. (obviously pure gold is quite soft and scratches easily). When you take all the allure and mystique and hype away however its just another product pushed along by its own marketing campaign. There have been times in history when people shifted to hard assets like gold and diamonds because the banking system was failing, there was no local reliable banking system at all or they were denied access to banks. Now some gold Hawkers will say... precisely...thats what happening now...the sky is falling..we need to put our useless cash into these portable, vehicles to preserve our wealth..in case..in case...in case. I dont see it but I can understand how if you were living in Libya or a poor peasant in India 50 miles from the nearest bank you could be justified in being a goldbug. In a vast majority of the world it just doesnt seem warranted.
Birmanboy, maybwe're both old enough to know that things aren't black and white, more a shade of grey. Gold isn't just a yellow metal of dubious worth, it's partly currency, and it holds its value through time (OK, a bit up and down) compared to other goods that humans might use. Here's a link to oil production, and scenarios for the years ahead (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PU200611_Fig1.png).

So most pundits predict oil to become more scarce, that will increase its price. Right now, 90 million barrels a day are being consumed, at an average trade cost of US$100/barrel, let's assume 33% profit, so about $1,000,000 million dollars of profit each year to be used up somehow. This dosn't include downstream profits from everything made from oil, the retail margins, other enterprises the barons get into. Cheap oil made the USA prosperous, and that's why they're not doing so well now. That raw oil profit could buy 570 million ounces of gold per year. Annual production is only xx million ounces per year. Compared to other options like keeping the profits in US$, history is on the side of gold haording for the moment.

[Skol]

Gold's only useful if you live in Iran or some other godforsaken place and want to smuggle assets out.

[elZorro]

Hi Birmanboy, well at least I know which side of the argument you're on..no doubts there.

If it's so clearcut, why did Teresa sell her Telecom shares and buy gold? Don't do it Birmanboy - keep that gold coin and resist buying standard shares for a while:).

But research some good gold explorer or mining shares, look back a year or two and look at some of their gains, phenomenal. There are some very smart and well-connected people involved in mining, we just have to be smart enough to be sitting alongside them when their investment vehicle takes off.

[BIRMANBOY]

Shes a woman..bling..bling. When I dont buy my partner flowers she goes out and buy them herself. Yes, ok I'm a sexist running dog I know. Its in the tiiming...I notice Teresa didnt say she was going out to buy more did she? I'm not interested in specs El Zorro...i may die before they deliver!!! I'm sure that many people make heaps off of bringing mining stocks to market...unfortunately they are too far removed from you or I to be of any real use to us. the money has come and gone before the average punter gets a shot at it. I'll settle for my paltry dividends and leave the big bucks for you guys. May you all get laid....(by the Golden Goose of course) :-)
Hi Birmanboy, well at least I know which side of the argument you're on..no doubts there.

If it's so clearcut, why did Teresa sell her Telecom shares and buy gold? Don't do it Birmanboy - keep that gold coin and resist buying standard shares for a while:).

But research some good gold explorer or mining shares, look back a year or two and look at some of their gains, phenomenal. There are some very smart and well-connected people involved in mining, we just have to be smart enough to be sitting alongside them when their investment vehicle takes off.

[elZorro]

Shes a woman..bling..bling. When I dont buy my partner flowers she goes out and buy them herself. Yes, ok I'm a sexist running dog I know. Its in the tiiming...I notice Teresa didnt say she was going out to buy more did she? I'm not interested in specs El Zorro...i may die before they deliver!!! I'm sure that many people make heaps off of bringing mining stocks to market...unfortunately they are too far removed from you or I to be of any real use to us. the money has come and gone before the average punter gets a shot at it. I'll settle for my paltry dividends and leave the big bucks for you guys. May you all get laid....(by the Golden Goose of course) :-)

Sounds like your investments are no better than mine on average..it's hard work out there. Yes, I'm sure many IPOs are all about the original investors being desperate to get their ideas going, but running out of cash. They'd rather not list, and new shareholders need to keep them pinned down with disclosures to market. You also have to watch what they are up to with the shares they own, buy when they buy.

Another suggestion (since you like dividend shares so much), what about the engineering firms who supply equipment to miners? Some of those crashed in 2008, and then recovered 5-fold or more. However they are on the way back down now.

[Skol]

According to this article gold has reached the mania stage. That's for sure, and you all know what happens to manias, the newbies get skinned alive in a violent, ruinous end.

Goldbugs don't take kindly to contrarians and I've been called all kinds of names, e.g. a 'bankster', a stooge for the 'banksters', a paid downramper and others not so polite. I guess I'm on the 'dark side' with the 'banksters' and the 'govnuts'. You could call it a cult with its strange jargon and telepathic rampers promising astronomic returns as the world financial system supposedly ends in ruins. The psychology of the gold rush is fascinating, you read posts for example on Yahoo finance about gold and some of these people expect returns which are so unbelievable I can only guess they will be the ultimate victims of a reversal.

I was very surprised someone supposedly as savvy as Teresa would go public, because if it all starts going wrong, dogged journalists will follow up her tale of woe if she hasn't sold out.

www.investorplace.com/2011/08/gold-prices-bubble-platinum/

[macduffy]

Goldbugs don't take kindly to contrarians and I've been called all kinds of names, e.g. a 'bankster', a stooge for the 'banksters', a paid downramper and others not so polite

You won't be called names by me, Skol, but I think you're missing out if you weren't prepared to take a small position and ride the trend when gold has been "doing its thing". I think most of us recognise that there is a bubble element in all this but that doesn't mean we can't make money out of it. Personally, I've sold my physical gold but am keeping a small position in IGR meanwhile which I'll be happy to quit if and when the trend bends in a serious way.

[BIRMANBOY]

El Zorro ...dont tell me when they are on the way down...thats just plain rude. I can see that you are desperate to have me committ some funds to the mining sector...how about if I buy more warehouse shares? Yes..they are involved ..they supply pencils to the accountants that manipulate the figures that make the IPO so attractive to the hopeful "investors". See, you won me over.
Sounds like your investments are no better than mine on average..it's hard work out there. Yes, I'm sure many IPOs are all about the original investors being desperate to get their ideas going, but running out of cash. They'd rather not list, and new shareholders need to keep them pinned down with disclosures to market. You also have to watch what they are up to with the shares they own, buy when they buy.

Another suggestion (since you like dividend shares so much), what about the engineering firms who supply equipment to miners? Some of those crashed in 2008, and then recovered 5-fold or more. However they are on the way back down now.

[steve fleming]

I'm sure that many people make heaps off of bringing mining stocks to market...unfortunately they are too far removed from you or I to be of any real use to us. the money has come and gone before the average punter gets a shot at it.

Sorry, just got to say that what you said is a bit of a defeatist and ignorant statement, IMO.

There are plenty of opportunities that 'an average punter' has to make fantastic money out of junior explorers....they just have to be smart enough to identify them.

[BIRMANBOY]

Dont be sorry. You obviously have inroads and access to information I dont. Presumably by your reasoning that make me ignorant. Opportunities are probably out there for you since you feel strongly about it and presumably have experience, but i still believe that the average speculator/investor ends up kissing a lot of of toads in their quest to find the 'right" junior explorer. I know my limits and I recognise that i dont have the inclination to spend huge amounts of time researching these explorers before I strike it lucky. My goals are different than yours from an investment perspective...that doesnt mean its defeatist just realistic. Also, I really dont think "smart enough" is the appropriate term however ...in my book "smart" money doesnt chase after speculative ventures. Perhaps in your case it should be "lucky enough" . However, that said I'm sure everynow and then big bucks can be made. and I wish you well...but please dont try and turn a speculative operation into an "investment". That just wont fit the definition of investment in my book. Your book is is a few chapters short on details to be worthy of reading (IMO)
Sorry, just got to say that what you said is a bit of a defeatist and ignorant statement, IMO.

There are plenty of opportunities that 'an average punter' has to make fantastic money out of junior explorers....they just have to be smart enough to identify them.

[Skol]

Sorry, just got to say that what you said is a bit of a defeatist and ignorant statement, IMO.

There are plenty of opportunities that 'an average punter' has to make fantastic money out of junior explorers....they just have to be smart enough to identify them.

Like NAV, I don't know how many times I've seen that one pushed on Hot copper and here.

JBMurc was a very big fan.

[macduffy]

I'm with steve on this one.

We don't get them all right and it does take a lot of reading and research - from publicly available info I might add. But as long as one doesn't go wild and bet the bank, ie moderate amounts on each pick, one five or six bagger will more than make up for a couple that fail and another couple that go nowhere. And don't be slow to get rid of the failures - a trailing stop loss can save a lot of heartache and doesn't have to be automatically applied, just keep an eye on the market!

Insiders don't make all the money!

[elZorro]

Dont be sorry. You obviously have inroads and access to information I dont. Presumably by your reasoning that make me ignorant. Opportunities are probably out there for you since you feel strongly about it and presumably have experience, but i still believe that the average speculator/investor ends up kissing a lot of of toads in their quest to find the 'right" junior explorer. I know my limits and I recognise that i dont have the inclination to spend huge amounts of time researching these explorers before I strike it lucky. My goals are different than yours from an investment perspective...that doesnt mean its defeatist just realistic. Also, I really dont think "smart enough" is the appropriate term however ...in my book "smart" money doesnt chase after speculative ventures. Perhaps in your case it should be "lucky enough" . However, that said I'm sure everynow and then big bucks can be made. and I wish you well...but please dont try and turn a speculative operation into an "investment". That just wont fit the definition of investment in my book. Your book is is a few chapters short on details to be worthy of reading (IMO)

Can I just butt in here: that's a load of rubbish BB, we have seen the experienced TA people yank all their money off the table when things start going pear-shaped, then sitting back and telling us so. Were their shares investments, or just a gamble too? They still call themselves 'investors'.

I have found sharetrading is like starting up a business, don't expect great results for the first few years, and you'll need to work hard at your craft. You just have to look at Steve Fleming's footnote to understand he probably does do a lot better than most of us. So read his comments politely.

[BIRMANBOY]

El Zorro did you have a couple of Heinies with dinner?? So here is my definition (for what its worth)
INVESTOR: contributing/advancing time, energy or capital into a project or entity with the reasonable and considered expectation that not only will they receive a dividend or interest but that their capital will retain or increase in value. Bases their purchases on underlying value and history and future outlook.
TRADER: looks to make money on the spread or difference between buying and selling the item regardless if its camels or shares. Will usually utilize stategys to limit losses and cries a lot when the strategy backfires or doesnt "work".
SPECULATOR: Uses a "scatter" technique wherby they dont really know which of the prospects is going to hit the jackpot so spreads the cash over a wide variety of stocks in the HOPE that one will pay out. Limited information on which to make decisions other than self-serving reports from hired guns and "experts in the field" Has a tendency to forget the no-shows and harp endlessly over the multibagger they remember vividly.
You just have to look at Steve Fleming's footnote to understand he probably does do a lot better than most of us. So read his comments politely.[/QUOTE]
How would I know that from his footnote??? and more importantly How sucessfull he is really of little interest to me since we obviously have completely different investment perspectives. Also politeness is obviously lacking in his post so we wont broach that subject. Bottom line El Zorro is You say potatoes and I say potahtoes..We each do what seems best to ourselves and there aint no pockets in shrouds as the old man used to say.
QUOTE=elZorro;355605]Can I just butt in here: that's a load of rubbish BB, we have seen the experienced TA people yank all their money off the table when things start going pear-shaped, then sitting back and telling us so. Were their shares investments, or just a gamble too? They still call themselves 'investors'.

I have found sharetrading is like starting up a business, don't expect great results for the first few years, and you'll need to work hard at your craft. You just have to look at Steve Fleming's footnote to understand he probably does do a lot better than most of us. So read his comments politely.[/QUOTE]

[Skol]

You can do all the research you like on mining but in many instances it's still nothing more than a gamble. The run-up to the 1987 crash was a classic with shonky mining companies being set up everywhere and now the same thing's happening again with record numbers of suction dredge premits pumps being issued in Alaska.

What did Mark Twain say - "a gold mine is a hole in the ground owned by a liar".

www.alaskajournal.com/stories/082611/loc_gpspoa.shtml

Another contrarian warning.

[elZorro]

You can do all the research you like on mining but in many instances it's still nothing more than a gamble. The run-up to the 1987 crash was a classic with shonky mining companies being set up everywhere and now the same thing's happening again with record numbers of suction dredge premits pumps being issued in Alaska.

What did Mark Twain say - "a gold mine is a hole in the ground owned by a liar".

www.alaskajournal.com/stories/082611/loc_gpspoa.shtml (http://www.alaskajournal.com/stories/082611/loc_gpspoa.shtml)

Another contrarian warning.

Skol, only you could take a very positive article about the increased interest in gold mining in Alaska, and turn it into a contrarian warning.. look at the flow-on benefits to the local economies and contractors.

[Skol]

Depends whether you want to put your hard-earned tax-paid dollars into something that's at 31 year highs or something that's beaten down and probably quite good value like the stockmarket.

Did you know before World War 1 the USA was the worlds biggest debtor nation. Debt is not a big deal, it'll sort itself out in the end.

[denpal]

It seems Mark Twain never actually said or wrote that: http://searchenginewatch.com/article/2049452/Web-of-Deception-Misinformation-on-the-Internet

It's a great saying though. I thought it went " A gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing beside it".

So, skol, how many bubbles have popped on you?

[elZorro]

Depends whether you want to put your hard-earned tax-paid dollars into something that's at 31 year highs or something that's beaten down and probably quite good value like the stockmarket.

Did you know before World War 1 the USA was the worlds biggest debtor nation. Debt is not a big deal, it'll sort itself out in the end.

Hi Skol, I didn't know that, but since you brought it up, how did they pay off that debt, did they have a bit of assistance?

[Skol]

It seems Mark Twain never actually said or wrote that: http://searchenginewatch.com/article/2049452/Web-of-Deception-Misinformation-on-the-Internet

It's a great saying though. I thought it went " A gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing beside it".

So, skol, how many bubbles have popped on you?

Same thing right, whatever he said.

Never been caught in a crash. I've been a contrarian for years, seen a few crashes, 1987, 2000 NASDAQ, GFC, Asian bubble, 1980 gold crash, Nikkei 225, Albanian scams, et.al, heaps of them.

FYI denpal, if gold takes a dive to $900 that's a 50% decrease, to get back to $1800 it needs to increase 100%, a big ask.

[Huang Chung]

FYI denpal, if gold takes a dive to $900 that's a 50% decrease, to get back to $1800 it needs to increase 100%, a big ask.

Well Skol, gold was around $1,100 when you started this thread on 31 December 2009....so your 'big ask' is only a little more that was has happened during the life of this thread.

PS...I always laugh at that 50% decline needs a 100% increase to get square argument. Fact is, using your figures, it's $900 in both directions.

[elZorro]

When shares drop 5% in a day I always think 'just 19 more days and there'd be nothing left' but it never happens like that, luckily. Maybe that's why a logarithmic chart often straightens out many trends.

This recently published book looks like it would be interesting, maybe a tough read too. The author notes a link between energy supply and growth.

http://www.businessworld.in/businessworld/businessworld/content/Decades-Will-Define-Us.html?print=yes

Many in the USA are getting used to lower pay, reduced living standards. But in Aussie, solar panels can now put energy into the grid for about the same price as coal-fired electricity. We have the ability to bring about these energy supply changes that are needed. For the meantime, I think the gold price is an indicator that the changes are not happening quickly enough.

[Skol]

Interesting you should mention the logarithmic chart. If gold gets back to where it was in 1980 adjusted for inflation that's about a 2200% increase. If gold got to $5000 which many goldbugs expect, that's in the realms of 20,000 to 30,000%, up there with the tulip bulbs.

[denpal]

This is a chart courtesy of falko on another forum, showing gold on a log scale, hardly a parabola eh skol?

[Skol]

I would say it is, esp. if you put up a chart of the last couple of years.

The dive the POG took 2008 might be the bear trap with the 'greatest fool' parting with his money at $1917.


IMO we're at the return to 'normal', before the rot really sets in.

www.steadfastfinances.com/blog/2009/11/14/the-psychology-of-bubbles-using-hindsight-to-examine-why-we-bought-into-the-hype/

This a parabolic chart.

http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html#1_year_gold_price

Check out the colossal volume on the SPDR gold trust chart, the biggest ETF in the world. Tops are often characterized by huge volume.

I notice anxiety setting in on some of the goldbug chatrooms. Chartists are suggesting it's reached a top and the psychology could be infectious, precipitating a fall.

e.g "I wish this thread would end" or "can we change the subject this has been going for a few days now", or "I don't like this negativity".

[CAM]

You seem to be following it rather closely...... eg. goldbug chatrooms etc etc

[Skol]

You seem to be following it rather closely...... eg. goldbug chatrooms etc etc

Yeah, I suppose I do, have a few days free. Not often in your life you get to witness possible real bubble action and psychology.

The goldbugs don't mention psychology, it's all the dollar, the shorters, JP Morgan, the Fed ad infinitum. They'll tell you even now that buying gold or silver, even at these super-elevated levels are merely the proper actions of informed investors.

Contrarians are told to 'get a reality check'.

[BIRMANBOY]

I think you'll find a lot of people are. Its sort of like watching a slow motion train wreck...morbidly fascinating...but thinking glad I'm not on it.
You seem to be following it rather closely...... eg. goldbug chatrooms etc etc

[denpal]

I would say it is, esp. if you put up a chart of the last couple of years.

The dive the POG took 2008 might be the bear trap with the 'greatest fool' parting with his money at $1917.



The log-lin (semi-log) chart is the right one to look at, ie the x-axis is linear (time) and the y-axis is logarithmic.

Quote from www.fool.com:

Log Charts vs. Linear Charts

Why does The Motley Fool prefer log charts over linear charts?

Spend any time looking at charts of stock price movements at Fool.com and you'll be looking at logarithmic charts. That might sound terribly complicated, but the concept behind logarithmic charts is fairly easy to grasp. There are two common kinds of charts used when presenting a graph of something like a stock price over time. One is linear and the other logarithmic.

Remember that with most such charts, the "X axis" (the horizontal measure) reflects time passed. So it might show you days, or weeks, or months, or years. The "Y axis" (the vertical measure) shows you how the stock price has changed over the given time period. Linear and logarithmic charts differ in their treatment of the Y axis. We'll first explain how the charts differ in their structure, and then why it's good to use log charts.

Linear: With a linear chart, the Y axis is structured in such a way that an equal distance along the axis represents an equal absolute change in stock price. (Gee, that wasn't too clear, was it? Let's try an example.) Shifting up three spaces on the vertical axis might represent a change in stock price from $10 to $13. Shifting up another three spaces further up on the axis might represent a change in stock price from $45 to $48. Three spaces, three dollars. Every time.

Logarithmic: With a logarithmic chart, the Y axis is structured in such a way that an equal distance along it represents an equal *percentage* change. So if you move up three spaces on the vertical axis, that might represent an increase of 15% in the stock price (perhaps from $20 to $23). Shifting up another three spaces further up on the axis will represent another 15% change in the stock price, but this time perhaps from $80 to $92. Note that in the first case, the absolute price change was $3. But further up the axis, the three spaces represented an absolute price change of $12.

Now -- why is one kind of chart better than another? Well, imagine a company with a stock price increasing by 15% each year for 20 years. Think about how you'd normally draw a chart of its stock price. You'd probably use a linear chart, as that's what most of us learned to do in school. The graph would show a really curved line, though. It would look like the stock price grew slowly in the first years, and then zoomed up a lot in the last few years.

That's because in the first few years, the change in the stock's price might have been from $10 to $11.50, and later from $25 to $28.75, and later still from $75 to $86.25. So the absolute changes will look small at the beginning, and will look large later on. But it's really just been a steady 15% increase from year to year. (Remember, an investor should be just as happy with a total 50% return from $20 to $30 as from $100 to $150. Investment-wise, percentage-wise, it's the same thing.)

This is why a logarithmic chart is preferable in this situation. If a company is growing at a steady clip, you'll see a fairly straight, upward-sloping line on the graph, not a sharply curving line. If the company's growth is slowing, you'll see the upward slope taper off a bit. If the company keeps growing faster and faster, then you'll see an upward-sloping sharp curve. But this time the dramatic curve will represent dramatic growth.

[Skol]

If gold does take a dive it will be very interesting to compare with other market routs. In 1980, 1987 there was no internet, in 2000, maybe some. There was no trading programmes, few hedge funds, and little electronic trading, mostly open outcry.

What will happen if everyone pushes the sell button at the same time? In 1980 gold fell about 27% in less than 2 weeks. What effect would ETF's unloading hundreds of tonnes of gold have?

[denpal]

If gold does take a dive it will be very interesting to compare with other market routs. In 1980, 1987 there was no internet, in 2000, maybe some. There was no trading programmes, few hedge funds, and little electronic trading, mostly open outcry.

What will happen if everyone pushes the sell button at the same time? In 1980 gold fell about 27% in less than 2 weeks. What effect would ETF's unloading hundreds of tonnes of gold have?

The theory is that there are people and central banks that want hundreds of tonnes, especially at lower prices.

[BIRMANBOY]

Possibly but they are unlikely to buy on the way down are they? They will wait until the bottom appears established before they start buying. Now that is where some serious dosh could be realized.!!!!
The theory is that there are people and central banks that want hundreds of tonnes, especially at lower prices.

[Skol]

The theory is that there are people and central banks that want hundreds of tonnes, especially at lower prices.

Yeah, I'm not sure why central banks have stuck their necks out just recently. The central banks of South Korea, Mexico, Thailand and Russia have bought gold. Why? Because the 'experts' get just as blinded by the mania as everyone else.

Speculative benders are always supported by authoritative opinion and and 'moms and pops' have taken this to mean that they're on the road to riches.

it won't come as any surprise that the purchases were applauded by the World Gold Council, Bullion Management Group, and Strategic Metals Research & Capital.

[Skol]

A couple of tales of woe in the news. A guy in Brisbane moved house recently and accidentally threw out some gold bars and the wife's gold jewellery. Hid the gold in some rubbish to deter any burglars.

A guy in NZ admits doing the same thing in 2008, threw out 3 X 1kg gold bars. Life sucks @ times he reckons.

[elZorro]

A couple of tales of woe in the news. A guy in Brisbane moved house recently and accidentally threw out some gold bars and the wife's gold jewellery. Hid the gold in some rubbish to deter any burglars.

A guy in NZ admits doing the same thing in 2008, threw out 3 X 1kg gold bars. Life sucks @ times he reckons.

I've just finished fixing a metal detector Skol, can you tell me which recycling station the bars went to?

[elZorro]

Here's a great story for the goldbugs amongst us..

http://1oro1.com/jesuits/rqfind.html

How about that gold price Skol? Friday close looking scary.

Similar to those log charts we talked about, here's a new article on volatility, suggests gold is not peaking enough yet to unwind.

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_prices_volatility_0902201111

I like the phrase that describes Skol..

A portfolio allocation of zero percent to gold would – in the current environment – suggest an investor who is intensely relaxed about the clear and present risks out there.

[denpal]

All time weekly closing high for gold!

[JBmurc]

Yes gold's been a right fizzer LOL

[Skol]

Here's a great story for the goldbugs amongst us..

http://1oro1.com/jesuits/rqfind.html

How about that gold price Skol? Friday close looking scary.

Similar to those log charts we talked about, here's a new article on volatility, suggests gold is not peaking enough yet to unwind.

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_prices_volatility_0902201111

I like the phrase that describes Skol..


I'm into capital preservation so I'm sitting on lots of cash. Might not go up much, but won't go down either. As a witness to the 1980 wreckage (and others) I'll sit on the sidelines and watch the action, because when the fire bell rings, you and billions of others will all be rushing for the exit door, and only a few are going to make it out.

You must be familiar with that old adage, "I don't a return ON my money, I just want the return OF my money".

[denpal]

I'm into capital preservation so I'm sitting on lots of cash. Might not go up much, but won't go down either. As a witness to the 1980 wreckage (and others) I'll sit on the sidelines and watch the action, because when the fire bell rings, you and billions of others will all be rushing for the exit door, and only a few are going to make it out.

You must be familiar with that old adage, "I don't a return ON my money, I just want the return OF my money".

So long as your money can buy more than a box of matches at that time!

[JBmurc]

well thats a great position to be skol wish I had lots of cash sitting around an not debt....a few more years yet for me maybe when I hit 40
instead I take that money the likes of yourself are happy with 4-6% return at the bank an re-invest it in the ASX market at a cost of 5.75% to my trading company with the yearly goal to make a profit from it along with the other 50% unloaned captial the company has built up ..I'm into capital growth as to why many of us have invested in the like of Gold/silver shares/bullion
If the fire bell rings like you believe at gold/silver/oil overnight crashes 50% that would mean something has happened to cause that i.e overnight interest rates go up 50% etc ....I don't believe in your scenerio that for no reason overnight everyone in the world that has brought gold silver bullion will be rushing for the exit door...it's just plain stupid

[ELYOB]

Gold may rise with the volitilty; but it will fall the same .... the volitility is extreme at present. Gold and silver etc.,. that move together may well go much higher. BUT AT SOME TIME forces of change will see a decline ! Those holding gold will hold and have no exit strategy? .... maybe cash is the best?

[JBmurc]

Gold may rise with the volitilty; but it will fall the same .... the volitility is extreme at present. Gold and silver etc.,. that move together may well go much higher. BUT AT SOME TIME forces of change will see a decline ! Those holding gold will hold and have no exit strategy? .... maybe cash is the best?

yes a much better Traders environment than investor had a nice 35% return on a 7 day hold with KMCO ...yes at some stage forces of change will see the bull market in Gold/Silver consolidate but at what levels ?? 2-3k NZD oz ....I have yet to see any great change FED talk of 0% rates till min 2013...at this stage .........the euro falling apart ....the human imformation age will underway ...Fiatpaper money creation worldwide going parabolic....the last investment I would take would be a long dated low interest bond

[Skol]

I picked up a copy of Barron's the other day, had an article on gold. One advisor told his customers to get out of gold because when a chart becomes almost vertical, like gold, it always, always, always, goes down, down, down, for a long, long ,long time. ALWAYS.

[elZorro]

I picked up a copy of Barron's the other day, had an article on gold. One advisor told his customers to get out of gold because when a chart becomes almost vertical, like gold, it always, always, always, goes down, down, down, for a long, long ,long time. ALWAYS.

But Skol - gold is now at US$1900, will probably rest at an all-time high, next stop likely to be $2,000/oz. Maybe that will be a bigger barrier for it to pass.

Why don't you short gold? Surely that would be a no-brainer at this stage, or are you still unsure like the rest of us?

[Skol]

But Skol - gold is now at US$1900, will probably rest at an all-time high, next stop likely to be $2,000/oz. Maybe that will be a bigger barrier for it to pass.

Why don't you short gold? Surely that would be a no-brainer at this stage, or are you still unsure like the rest of us?

I am unsure, and I don't feel like risking hard-earned tax-paid dollars on a mania, it could go on for a while. I give crowd behaviour a wide berth.

[denpal]

I picked up a copy of Barron's the other day, had an article on gold. One advisor told his customers to get out of gold because when a chart becomes almost vertical, like gold, it always, always, always, goes down, down, down, for a long, long ,long time. ALWAYS.

skol, heard of the exception that disproves the rule?

As has been shown, in semi-log scale there is no parabola, only a ruler straight trend with a bit of a pimple at the end.

[JBmurc]

Well unlike some here that seem to have mixed up a Bull trend with a mania I'm enjoying getting on board an making some good profits in the Gold sector as when it's in mania you won't see...

-- nearly all of biggest invesment funds in the world have only very small amount's of Gold/silver allocation in their funds tiny less than 1%
--9 out of 10 analyst's on CNBC over the years have been bearish on the gold now they are still even more bearish
--Easy to buy from many bullion outlets
--I know of no-one personal that hold Gold bullion...An I'm a Gold bull
--Soon to be Gold producers at forward P.E of 1-2 (how the .uck is that a mania in gold if the shares that produce an make big cash are valued so low)
--Many Gold explorer's having their IGV of Gold resources being valued at less than $30 per oz ...they were valued more back when gold was $500oz
--Barron's,FT,economists,WSJ they are all calling for gold's crash are they not??? how are we in a mania

[Skol]

I'm not sure Queenstown is sophisticated enought to know there's a mania on, but try spending a bit of time watching the box or reading the papers in North America. It's everywhere, gold, gold, gold. Instant, risk free riches.

Great spectator sport though, much more interesting the the RWC.

Here's quote from Isaac Newton: "I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people."

[JBmurc]

Right so you see some ads in the Yank papers an T.V advertising Gold for sale ""Oh no it's a Bubble"" thats real sophisticated.... LOL

Gold $1912oz-------- buying more CVR est production costs $550 per oz----

[elZorro]

Gold certainly looks bullish for the rest of the day's trading, JB and Skol. Closer to home, OGC is trading slightly down, if that is to be believed. Good volume on the ASX though - is it being accumulated? I'm not a TA expert.

[JBmurc]

Gold's looking bullish till the world sorts out the debt/credit/currency woes we are in which is unlikely anytime soon 2015-18?
worth watching -Inside job-DVD watched it yesterday ,really backed up my very to be hold a few Gold an Silver producers going forward...even if gold goes no-where many producers will be making their entire market worth in Profit in 1-2yrs production

[Skol]

Goldbugs love Youtube. A few minutes ago I found a clip that says silver's going to $100,000 an ounce.

Hahahaha, boy this is entertaining. There's plenty of websites that say gold is going to $100,000.

I'll see what else I can find when I have a bit time.

Silver $100,000, you really are going to be rich JB. LOL