Gold

[Skol]

they will be the've got to.. when your in the hole a trillion a year , you must borrow more to pay the bills - keep the defense force running ,pay the massive interest bill to the foreign creditors etc....without doubt the US will do another Q.E ---till Inflation gets high enough to decrease the value of the debt to GDP this will will also mean a much lower export dollar which would help as would less imports ...

I'm more than happy to put a $100 bet that within a year from today the USA will do another Q.E program

The senior economist of the Royal Bank of Scotland , Michelle Girard, says the odds of more QE were "very low".

But who's gonna argue with the fiscal supremo of the goldbugs, JBMurc? LOL

[winner69]

Love this quote - so gold price will always rise eh

"There are about three hundred economists in the world who are against gold, and they think that gold is a barbarous relic - and they might be right. Unfortunately, there are three billion inhabitants of the world who believe in gold." - Janos Fekete

[Skol]

Here's one I love:

Only fools hold out for top dollar

Joseph P. Kennedy

[JBmurc]

The senior economist of the Royal Bank of Scotland , Michelle Girard, says the odds of more QE were "very low".

But who's gonna argue with the fiscal supremo of the goldbugs, JBMurc? LOL

Really is that right...LOL

Uneven’ Recovery-Bloomberg
Bernanke said on June 7 that the central bank should maintain record monetary stimulus to boost an “uneven” economic recovery, even as he gave no hint of a new round of so- called quantitative easing as policy makers plan this month to complete a $600 billion bond purchase program.
“It was a very ugly week,” said Andrew Ross, partner and global equity trader at First New York Securities LLC, a New York-based proprietary trading firm that bets on stocks, commodities and derivatives. “Traders grappled with rising macro concerns in the face of a Federal Reserve without the political will to push forward on a new round of stimulus.”

[Skol]

http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1012/1012.4118.pdf

It's interesting that Sornette's theorem's estimate of a gold crash coincides with the end of QE, what seems to a bottoming out of the USD, and weakening of the POG with falling gold equities and indices.

[elZorro]

http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1012/1012.4118.pdf

It's interesting that Sornette's theorem's estimate of a gold crash coincides with the end of QE, what seems to a bottoming out of the USD, and weakening of the POG with falling gold equities and indices.

I must admit that most goldminer shares have turned down a bit, Skol. But the April-May deadline seems to have passed, gold still well above US$1500 per ounce, oil going up, and maybe that has affected the equation's timing. The equation does not predict what happens if peak oil starts to look more obvious, and a range of other things. The paper has come from a Russian think-tank, and they have already chosen a linear version rather than a log version of it, and removed dampened oscillations to fit with USGold (just one version of the gold pattern). The continued collapse in the US$ after late 2010 will perhaps not have been factored in.




At the same time, as stated in the beginning of this article, all these calculations should not be
given the meaning of an accurate prediction of the events. The calculations performed by
Sornette’s method and other estimates are based on the idea that all players will try to maximize
profit just in this market, and will not believe in forecasts like the one we propose (otherwise we
shall deal with a “non-self-fulfilling prophecy”). If a very large player, such as the Central Bank
of China, intervenes with other goals (longer-term, depending on political calculations, etc.),
then the foundation upon which all such forecasts are based disappears.

[Skol]

This looks very promising, if it stays like this I think I'll buy more USD.

www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

[elZorro]

Here's a thesis with more financial equations and stochastic musings, (http://www.scribd.com/doc/53722802/56/The-Santa-Clara-and-Sornette-model) brief mention of Sornette's work. If anyone on this thread understands it fully, I suggest they should be embargoed at least..

The conclusion after all this maths work in 2002 was that some market data needed to be fitted to the theory, future research needed. Scientists are always looking for more funding, nothing new there.

[Skol]

I must admit that most goldminer shares have turned down a bit, Skol.

"Turned down a bit". LOL

Gold is up 10.3% since Nov last year.

XGD is down 14%
HUI is down 8%.
OGC is down 9%.

What's gone wrong?

[Packersoldkidney]

I think gold is a play on inflation - if you think inflation is coming globally then gold is a good bet. In a deflationary scenario gold will fall along with everything else - gold is not good protection during a global recession for example, despite what gold bugs say. With the amount of delevering still to come around the globe I find it difficult to believe that we are in for inflationary times ahead. Of course, central banks will do anything to avoid deflation - so I reckon what will happen is that gold will plummet in price along with everything else at some stage not too far into the distant future. Then central banks across the globe will be desperate to reflate economies (and the amount of liquidity requied to do that will be humungous, even compared to that seen in response to the GFC) and as a result gold will start to reascend in price - probably to stratospheric levels far beyond where the price stands today.

[elZorro]

"Turned down a bit". LOL

Gold is up 10.3% since Nov last year.

XGD is down 14%
HUI is down 8%.
OGC is down 9%.

What's gone wrong?

Have all goldies gone down? Don't think so Skol..anyway keep an eye on OGC, I think it's being accumulated by the smart players.

[JBmurc]

yeah been a couple rough months for many goldies an my share portifilo even though my biggest interests are in Oil&gas -Iron ore really think we're seeing the bottom for many resource companies on the ASX for the year.

A Chinese ratings house has accused the United States of defaulting on its massive debt, state media said Friday, a day after Beijing urged Washington to put its fiscal house in order.
"In our opinion, the United States has already been defaulting," Guan Jianzhong, president of Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. Ltd., the only Chinese agency that gives sovereign ratings, was quoted by the Global Times saying.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/china-ratings-house-says-us-defaulting-report-054309883.html

[Skol]

Goldbugs love charts, but I've noticed in the last few months they've fallen out of love with them. Go the USD. Silver price projects to $22.

www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/06/11/gold-silver-miners-stock-market-and-the-us-dollar/

[elZorro]

Forget the USD Skol, small beer. How about those gold equities over the last year?



There is no doubt about it, metals markets have raced ahead during the past 12 months. It wasn't entirely apparent that it would be so back in November 2009, although some warning signs were already apparent. But what was clear, to us at least, was that the paper currencies were not the place to be, especially not the US dollar. Sterling, too, has been competitively devalued, and, as events have turned out, the euro's not been a particularly good bet either, as the domino effect of bad debt continues to ripple through markets. One currency has remained strong, though - the oldest one of all: gold. Gold is a currency not a commodity. Never forget that.

Gold now trades at $1540 - just off its all time highs. But to be at that point in May and June (traditionally the weakest months of the year for gold) says a lot. The strongest months of the year are normally July, August and September and with the paper currencies in disarray we are sure that 2011 will be no exception. We would not be surprised to see gold pass through $1600 and $1700 within weeks. The effect on the value of gold equities will, we believe, be electric.

Our team of Tom Winnifrith, Robert Sutherland-Smith and Malcolm Burne has an established track record in identifying small and mid cap growth opportunities in this sector. The team believes that Gold will continue to advance to new all time highs over the next few months as confidence in the major paper currencies collapses. And as gold producers are operationally geared to this, the way to play this is by investing in a basket of carefully selected gold mining stocks.

We let our stock selection do the talking.

The SF t1ps Smaller Companies Gold Fund is ahead by 83.49% since its launch and by 62.7% over one year. Of course past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. It is all down to good stock selection. The team has detailed knowledge of the metals markets and so we are well placed to capitalise on what we consider to be very positive market conditions. In good times for this sector most stocks will do fairly well but the best stocks will do very well. We maintain our view that everyone should have gold exposure in their portfolio and that the best way to maximise on that is with a carefully selected portfolio of UK, ASX and TSX mid caps and high quality juniors. We suggest visiting www.t1psim.com (wlmailhtml:{859F7BC3-BC06-49EC-89C0-293E8B5037B7}mid://00000031/!x-usc:http://t1ps.com/crm/tracking.php?id=5197).

[Skol]

The XGD is up 16% for the last year, but all those gains were made at the end of 2010.
The party ended on November 9, 2010. I don't see anything that's gonna revive gold fever, USD up, QE over etc. While the USD's been down, stock indices are up, one cancels the other out, I'm still square.
Ask Aussie gold stock investors how they're doing. Gold shares should be booming as AUD declines, but the XGD still heads south. Something's going on, like when oil shares declined before the great 2008 oil crash.

I'm almost inclined to think that the gold party's over for the next 30 years.

[JBmurc]

The XGD is up 16% for the last year, but all those gains were made at the end of 2010.
The party ended on November 9, 2010. I don't see anything that's gonna revive gold fever, USD up, QE over etc. While the USD's been down, stock indices are up, one cancels the other out, I'm still square.
Ask Aussie gold stock investors how they're doing. Gold shares should be booming as AUD declines, but the XGD still heads south. Something's going on, like when oil shares declined before the great 2008 oil crash.

I'm almost inclined to think that the gold party's over for the next 30 years.


Load up those USD skol get them while there cheap LOL best thing the US need over 3 billion per day over incoming tax to keep paying the bills I'm sure they'll be more than happy to have your funds- 10yr US government bond yield 2.98% load up ...better than holding these precious metal bars esp when you see the total amount of silver held at the comex & world government stockpiles adds up to a total value round 7 billion USD

[elZorro]

I hope this doesn't give Skol any ammunition - but the article is interesting anyway.

Gold-equity disconnect (http://business.financialpost.com/2011/05/27/the-bullion-gold-stock-disconnect/)

[stevo1]

I hope this doesn't give Skol any ammunition - but the article is interesting anyway.

Gold-equity disconnect (http://business.financialpost.com/2011/05/27/the-bullion-gold-stock-disconnect/)

Skol makes his own ammo

[Pumice]

no need to get defensive on ol skol.
you see gold as cheap and USD as expensive, some see it the other way.

[Skol]

Correct there Pumice, gold's more expensive than it's ever been and USD is cheaper. XGD continues its inexorable way south and not long now before the POG follows I reckon, the best way

to buy gold has to be with ETF's, in and out in a flash, very liquid, no hassles which probably accounts for the stagnation in gold shares.

[Skol]

This is from Incredible Charts:

Gold miners are pointing to a weaker gold price. The XAU index broke through primary support at 195 to complete a double-top reversal. Follow-through below 190 would confirm the signal. Traded on the Philadelphia exchange, the XAU index consists of 16 major precious metal miners.

Retreat below $1510 would echo the miners warning, testing support at $1460.

i.e. if it hasn't gone to the moon by now it's not going.

[Skol]

I see Standard Chartered Bank are predicting $5000 gold by the end of the decade on 'shortages'. There's nothing that the world is short of as has been proven over the centuries, gurus have been predicting shortages of everything but in the end there's no shortage. Food, timber, uranium, gold, silver, oil, helium, water, even chocolate. LOL

It's a pretty safe bet because by the time 2020 comes around everyone will have forgotten about it and those that are making the predictions will have either retired or gone to other jobs.

[elZorro]

I see Standard Chartered Bank are predicting $5000 gold by the end of the decade on 'shortages'. There's nothing that the world is short of as has been proven over the centuries, gurus have been predicting shortages of everything but in the end there's no shortage. Food, timber, uranium, gold, silver, oil, helium, water, even chocolate. LOL

It's a pretty safe bet because by the time 2020 comes around everyone will have forgotten about it and those that are making the predictions will have either retired or gone to other jobs.

Gold to hit $1700 by end of Q3.. (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1135788/1/.html)
Well I hope it does, might offset the falling gold miner shares we're seeing. Skol, you reckon no-one will need gold in the future. What if Yellowstone National Park blows up? (http://jamesjoe.com/joe-taylor/articles/yellowstone-super-volcano.asp)

[Skol]

Dreams are free, rather than worry about the infinitesimal chance of Yellowstone blowing up, worry about the POG next week, because Greece is off the hook, in the meantime. POG spiked up last week because of a default, but it's not gonna happen.

[CAM]

yep everything is fine now...no worries.... gold should go back to $300 ounce in no time now

European monetary authorities met over the weekend and agreed a stop gap loan of 12 billion euros to support Greece
But Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has pleaded for a new bailout of 110 billion euros to support Greece over the next couple of years

Banks are beginning to realise the unsustainability of the debt loads and the inevitability of restructures that trigger losses. Some British banks have stopped lending to European banks, fearing the fallout from the contagion from a "Lehman-style" financial crisis in Europe.

This is forcing the European Central Bank to lend to these European banks, effectively shifting private debt to the public balance sheets. It raises the uncomfortable prospect that any Greek default could also wipe out the European Central Bank

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8584442/UK-banks-abandon-eurozone-over-Greek-default-fears.html

[STRAT]

effectively shifting private debt to the public balance sheets.Call me a cynic but that was always the plan I reckon. Those in power have always screwed the peasants over. Nothing changes. Its human nature.

[Skol]

An aggravated robbery in Upper Hutt, the villains were after cash and GOLD. Buy gold and keep it in your house - yeah right!

[BIRMANBOY]

Yes bit of a problem but the key is not so much keeping it there as trying to keep the information confined. The more people who know the greater the risk. Dont give out any details/names/addresses to anyone. The BNZ Lambton Quay have a safety deposit facility downstairs (privately run) where you can hire a secure box for 300-to 500 per year. Thats one option. They seem to have good security. Another option is to have a "burglar stash" big pile of 5 dollar bills and some gold coins that you can "sacrafice" to keep the main horde secure, if you must keep it at home. My old man buried some gold coins in the garden...unfortunately he didnt tell anyone where and when he passed away I tried finding them but had to give up. The new owners subdivided the section so now they are probably under a concrete pad!! Oh well!
An aggravated robbery in Upper Hutt, the villains were after cash and GOLD. Buy gold and keep it in your house - yeah right!

[Skol]

The goldbugs are too stupid, they'll think there's some kind of bankster conspiracy to steal or confiscate their gold, that's why they're always on about 'taking possession'.

I've got a neighbour with heaps of it buried on his farm.

[BIRMANBOY]

If I was into gold I would want to take possesion (spelling?) too but theres a difference between being "possessed" and taking possession. The line can be blurred I suppose. Seems to inspire strong opinions and strange actions does gold.
The goldbugs are too stupid, they'll think there's some kind of bankster conspiracy to steal or confiscate their gold, that's why they're always on about 'taking possession'.

I've got a neighbour with heaps of it buried on his farm.

[Skol]

The world's falling to pieces all right. Boeing and Airbus have racked up $25 billion in orders on the first day of the Paris Airshow. Just about all of it will be done with debt.

[evilroyrule]

The goldbugs are too stupid, they'll think there's some kind of bankster conspiracy to steal or confiscate their gold, that's why they're always on about 'taking possession'.

I've got a neighbour with heaps of it buried on his farm.

where do you live. ill need the physical address please. and can i access your neighbours land from yours, with say a digger and truck?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

evilroyrule Do some research on Gold Corp in 1987&88 They could not find the gold that people had supposedly bought.

[Skol]

evilroyrule Do some research on Gold Corp in 1987&88 They could not find the gold that people had supposedly bought.

Yes, that's true, but that was Ray Smith, not the bank, but if you talk to goldbugs they'll bore you to tears with how the banksters are going to steal it, go out of business or the the real cranks will tell you the government might confiscate it.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Skol you are correct if you take phyisical delivery. But if you leave it with some of the supposed bullion dealers what guarantee have you got that they will actually have it In a crissis. What if some one puts them into receivership. Would you be an unsecured creditor? And if you have the Physical gold it has to checked & sent to a Bullion dealer before you can sell it.

[Skol]

Skol you are correct if you take phyisical delivery. But if you leave it with some of the supposed bullion dealers what guarantee have you got that they will actually have it In a crissis. What if some one puts them into receivership. Would you be an unsecured creditor? And if you have the Physical gold it has to checked & sent to a Bullion dealer before you can sell it.

Put it under the bed.

[elZorro]

The goldbugs are too stupid, they'll think there's some kind of bankster conspiracy to steal or confiscate their gold, that's why they're always on about 'taking possession'.

I've got a neighbour with heaps of it buried on his farm.

JB will come over on his bike and sort that out. I wonder if he's bought a metal detector yet?

[Skol]

World's most indebted countries.

USA 98.4% of GDP
Hungary 120.6%
Australia 121.9%
Italy 141.3%
Greece 167.2%
Germany 176.8%
Spain 176.9%
Norway 208.8%
Finland 215%
Hong kong 224.7%
Portugal 231.2%
France 244.3%
Austria 251.4%
Sweden 269.7%
Denmark 307.3%
Belgium 326.7%
Netherlands 369.6%
Switzerland 378.6%
UK 428.8%
Ireland 1305%

So why is the USA, the Fed, Bernanke, and the US Govt the goldbugs most hated?

How about the Irish debt clock JB?

[CAM]

http://www.debtclock.ie/

[trackers]

3411

http://goldprice.org/charts/history/gold_5_year_o_aud.png

Wish my oz gold shares would track with the bloody gold price lol.....

[Skol]

Look like a bubble to you? Sure looks like one to me, gold punters could be in for an expensive reality check.

You can bet a lot of gold purchases will have been done with debt.

Debt = Risk. Ask property punters over the last few years.

[robo]

World's most indebted countries.

USA 98.4% of GDP
Hungary 120.6%
Australia 121.9%
Italy 141.3%
Greece 167.2%
Germany 176.8%
Spain 176.9%
Norway 208.8%
Finland 215%
Hong kong 224.7%
Portugal 231.2%
France 244.3%
Austria 251.4%
Sweden 269.7%
Denmark 307.3%
Belgium 326.7%
Netherlands 369.6%
Switzerland 378.6%
UK 428.8%
Ireland 1305%

So why is the USA, the Fed, Bernanke, and the US Govt the goldbugs most hated?

How about the Irish debt clock JB?

Where can the rest be found please Skol?

[Skol]

That's all, I got it off CNBC on a slide show of the world's most indebted countries, but there's a reference to NZ in the business section of the NZ Herald today.

NZ's external debt is in about the same situation as Greece and Portugal, but gross NZ Govt debt apparently is at the more prudent end, about Australia.

[robo]

That's all, I got it off CNBC on a slide show of the world's most indebted countries, but there's a reference to NZ in the business section of the NZ Herald today.

NZ's external debt is in about the same situation as Greece and Portugal, but gross NZ Govt debt apparently is at the more prudent end, about Australia.

Thanks; those numbers are scary , really surprised at those scandinavian countries debt levels

[trackers]

Look like a bubble to you? Sure looks like one to me, gold punters could be in for an expensive reality check.

You can bet a lot of gold purchases will have been done with debt.

Debt = Risk. Ask property punters over the last few years.

3412

82% return on investment over 5 years = bubble? Wow Skol you need to get out more

[Skol]

3412

82% return on investment over 5 years = bubble? Wow Skol you need to get out more

Yep, it's a bubble all right.

In the 2000 tech wreck stocks went from 1000 to 5000. 5 times.

From it's low gold has gone up - 5 times.

[stevo1]

Dreams are free, rather than worry about the infinitesimal chance of Yellowstone blowing up, worry about the POG next week, because Greece is off the hook, in the meantime. POG spiked up last week because of a default, but it's not gonna happen.

Your hero Bernanke doesnt agree Skoly
Mr Bernanke, speaking at the Fed's second quarterly media conference, said he believed European officials accept the "incredible importance" of finding a resolution to Greece's liquidity crisis before it spirals out of control.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/greece-could-pose-global-threat-warns-federal-reserve-chairman-ben-bernanke/story-e6frg926-1226080311839
"To the extent there is an indirect impact on the core European banks, that does pose some concern to money market mutual funds," Mr Bernanke said

POG US$1545.8

[Skol]

All this drama and the best gold can do is go up $20. I say let the Greeks bite the dust, cause some problems for a while but it'll be a lesson to all and sundry to keep their debt under control.

Apparently there's a lot of tax evasion in Greece, can't blame them for that if the gummint is so disorganised.

[stevo1]

Debt to GDP is a "massaged" figure particularly in the case of USA where consumer spending is included and at will any figure (petrol etc) can be discounted,left out or whatever.Headline inflation,one off inflation etc etc etc.Who do they think they are kidding?

[Skol]

Debt to GDP is a "massaged" figure particularly in the case of USA where consumer spending is included and at will any figure (petrol etc) can be discounted,left out or whatever.Headline inflation,one off inflation etc etc etc.Who do they think they are kidding?

You'll be happy to provide sufficient evidence of course, we'll be waiting.

[STRAT]

You'll be happy to provide sufficient evidence of course, we'll be waiting.I thought "massaged" was rather kind.

I would have used words like "blatant lies"

[Skol]

I thought "massaged" was rather kind.

I would have used words like "blatant lies"

Well how about some evidence? Just like I've asked for evidence of 'manipulation', which never turned up, provide evidence of 'blatant lies'.

I'll bet you can't, it's all what I'd call 'hearsay'.

[STRAT]

Well how about some evidence? Just like I've asked for evidence of 'manipulation', which never turned up, provide evidence of 'blatant lies'.OK Skol, I will see what I can dig up at the weekend.

[Skol]

OK Skol, I will see what I can dig up at the weekend.

I'll look forward to it. If Bernanke or the Fed was caught telling 'blatant lies' there would be some very serious implications for a public servant or elected official, I don't think I need to expand on that one.

[peat]

Bernanke has told lies when he said they arent printing money.

[Skol]

Bernanke has told lies when he said they arent printing money.

QE does not actually "print" money, it's a misnomer and Bernanke has said so. I read it in Time magazine. They interviewed him on QE and its effects. Goldbugs always talk about "printing" but it doesn't actually happen, which shows how much they know. They read all the rubbish on the goldbug websites, not the 'mainstream press', like FT, WSJ, NY Times or The Economist.

Gold down $37, something's happening. That'll be Bernanke and the Fed screwing the goldbugs, 'manipulating' the price down. LOL

Yep, as I thought, a quick look around the internet and it's all the Fed's fault and the 'purple circle' whoever they are, maybe the banking families that ostensibly control the world's wealth. Maybe the "illuminati", or the 'New World Order'. Those thugs in the Fed are buying heaps of gold and forcing the price down apparently

Hahahaha, goldbugs, always good for a laugh and a new conspiracy theory.

The most paranoid mob on the planet, a psychologists dream come true.

[STRAT]

I'll look forward to it. If Bernanke or the Fed was caught telling 'blatant lies' there would be some very serious implications for a public servant or elected official, I don't think I need to expand on that one.Hi Skol.
Are you playing Devils advocate or Internet Lawyer here? I would be most surprised to find out that you believe Economic data presented by and for the US to be absolute and undisputably factual.

[trackers]

QE does not actually "print" money, it's a misnomer and Bernanke has said so. I read it in Time magazine. They interviewed him on QE and its effects. Goldbugs always talk about "printing" but it doesn't actually happen, which shows how much they know. They read all the rubbish on the goldbug websites, not the 'mainstream press', like FT, WSJ, NY Times or The Economist.

Gold down $37, something's happening. That'll be Bernanke and the Fed screwing the goldbugs, 'manipulating' the price down. LOL

Yep, as I thought, a quick look around the internet and it's all the Fed's fault and the 'purple circle' whoever they are, maybe the banking families that ostensibly control the world's wealth. Maybe the "illuminati", or the 'New World Order'. Those thugs in the Fed are buying heaps of gold and forcing the price down apparently

Hahahaha, goldbugs, always good for a laugh and a new conspiracy theory.

The most paranoid mob on the planet, a psychologists dream come true.



http://i.imgur.com/kpTtT.gif (http://i.imgur.com/kpTtT.gif)

[Skol]

Hi Skol.
Are you playing Devils advocate or Internet Lawyer here? I would be most surprised to find out that you believe Economic data presented by and for the US to be absolute and undisputably factual.

Well how about an example? Anyone caught lying to the Congress for example can get 5 years in prison and $250,000 fine on each count. If Bernanke was caught lying the man's life and career would be in ruins.

I just can't understand why goldbugs believe everyone is lying about the US economy, what about every other economy? It's paranoia on a very grand scale and I still have never seen anyone getting caught.

Compared with the insane theories the goldbugs invent Bernanke is a paragon of virtue, read HC from time to time and enjoy the loony posts on the Gold forum.

I'll bet if if someone asked Bernanke about the goldbugs and their preposterous, hilarious conspiracy theories he'd burst out laughing, he's a religious man, I've no reason to doubt he's as honest as the day is long. He's know there's heaps of conspiracy theorists that would love to see him pilloried, so the's gonna be ultra careful.

I'd like to meet the man.


Post some evidence of lying and manipulation by the Fed or the US Govt. Bet none of you can.

[STRAT]

Getting off track here I reckon Skol. The original post was about data, not Bernanke or any other idividual and like I said I will see what I can dig up for ya later.

If you believe being religious means a man is honest then you are a more trusting fellow than I.

[trackers]

Well how about an example? Anyone caught lying to the Congress for example can get 5 years in prison and $250,000 fine on each count. If Bernanke was caught lying the man's life and career would be in ruins.

I just can't understand why goldbugs believe everyone is lying about the US economy, what about every other economy? It's paranoia on a very grand scale and I still have never seen anyone getting caught.

Compared with the insane theories the goldbugs invent Bernanke is a paragon of virtue, read HC from time to time and enjoy the loony posts on the Gold forum.

I'll bet if if someone asked Bernanke about the goldbugs and their preposterous, hilarious conspiracy theories he'd burst out laughing, he's a religious man, I've no reason to doubt he's as honest as the day is long. He's know there's heaps of conspiracy theorists that would love to see him pilloried, so the's gonna be ultra careful.

Post some evidence of lying and manipulation by the Fed or the US Govt. Bet none of you can.

Wow, this took all of 5 seconds:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zp6YmEevHE0


Governments lying about their cash positions? Never happens... How about Greece? 'Oh did we say we were running deficits of 3% of GDP? We actually meant 15%..'

http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010

[Skol]

Getting off track here I reckon Skol. The original post was about data, not Bernanke or any other idividual and like I said I will see what I can dig up for ya later.

Good luck.

The goldbugs honestly believe they're not getting rich because the Fed's diddling the gold price, some posts I've read indicate the poster is not just unhinged but certifiable.

[Skol]

Wow, this took all of 5 seconds:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zp6YmEevHE0


Governments lying about their cash positions? Never happens... How about Greece? 'Oh did we say we were running deficits of 3% of GDP? We actually meant 15%..'

http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010

Hillary Clinton wasn't lying, just telling what she'd been told by someone else in the CIA or whatever. Greek Govt. lying, maybe, but we're talking about Bernanke and the Fed here, not the Central African Republic.

[STRAT]

but we're talking about Bernanke and the Fed here, No we arent Skol. We are talking about US reporting. Have another look at Stevos post. If you agree that US reporting is less than strait up please say so now. I would be pissed if I waisting time digging up samples only to have you say you were talking about something else. I have better things to do with my weekend.


WE should be talking about the POG. $1502. Ouch!






Debt to GDP is a "massaged" figure particularly in the case of USA where consumer spending is included and at will any figure (petrol etc) can be discounted,left out or whatever.Headline inflation,one off inflation etc etc etc.Who do they think they are kidding?

[Skol]

Yes we are, I read heaps of comments from goldbugs who say the US Govt, and the Fed are lying. Where's the proof, there isn't any. A while back I asked for proof of 'manipulation' and that amounted to nothing.

One poster on another forum refers to the 'filth'. I asked him who the 'filth' are, but no answer, but you can bet they're the 'banksters', manipulators, the US Govt, the Fed, and last but certainly not least JP Morgan.

Outrageous allegations without an ounce of proof.

[STRAT]

Yes we are, I read heaps of comments from goldbugs who say the US Govt, and the Fed are lying. Where's the proof, there isn't any. A while back I asked for proof of 'manipulation' and that amounted to nothing.

One poster on another forum refers to the 'filth'. I asked him who the 'filth' are, but no answer, but you can bet they're the 'banksters', manipulators, the US Govt, the Fed, and last but certainly not least JP Morgan.

Outrageous allegations without an ounce of proof.Geez.
Never mind the Goldbugs and other Chat sites for a moment.

Steveo wrote saying US Data is massaged.

I replied that I thought the word massaged was kind and Id have used the word lies

You replied show me some proof.

Im done with this silliness

[Skol]

Geez.
Never mind the Goldbugs and other Chat sites for a moment.

Steveo wrote saying US Data is massaged.

I replied that I thought the word massaged was kind and Id have used the word lies

You replied show me some proof.

Im done with this silliness

No wonder your done with it, you said 'lies', prove it.

[stevo1]

Geez.
Never mind the Goldbugs and other Chat sites for a moment.

Steveo wrote saying US Data is massaged.

I replied that I thought the word massaged was kind and Id have used the word lies

You replied show me some proof.

Im done with this silliness

Yea Strat you can only ever discuss with the rational and the sane,many of the acquisations Skol throws at "goldbugs" could be equally applied to skol.
The US now has a deep and flawed history of "untruths" (LIES) about many things beside the financial aspects.
There are numerous examples
No I am not going to "prove it" skol it is obvious to anyone who thinks for themselves or is informed.
POG at $1500.70 has got skol rather over excited.

[Pumice]

What super powers do you hold ethically higher than the US?
Russia, China, The Middle East, Europe?

They're all equally dodgy in their own way. The US is just more transparent imo.

[Skol]

Stevo,

You can't prove it either, just parrotting the same old goldbug mantras of 'lies' and 'manipulation', JP Morgan, the Fed, Bernanke, etc., feeling sorry for yourselves because you're not getting rich, trying to blame your misfortune on someone else.

I'm not excited at POG $1500, not surprised either, I expect gold and silver to fall, quite a long way, and when it does that's when we really will here the screams of protest from gold speculators about how they've had their riches wrenched from them.

If you truly believe there's manipulation and lies by the highest authorities then it's a damned good place not to have your money.

Quite amusingly I've just been reading an article on JP Morgan. Jamie Dimon the bank's CEO is in Sydney, and NY Times describes him as the world's 'least hated banker', whereas he's the goldbugs 'most hated banker', or should I say 'bankster'. LOL

Thre's a good chance that next week the XGD will plumb the lowest low since August 2010.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

TO Take the fifth in America means you refuse to answer as the answer may incriminate you

[Skol]

TO Take the fifth in America means you refuse to answer as the answer may incriminate you

Yes, who's done that?

[Skol]

The Economist has published an article on ETF's and wonder whether they might be the cause of the next meltdown.
Here's a part of it on gold ETF's and whether the market may become 'disorderly'.

A linked problem is the tendency for ETFs to be the main way in which investors seek exposure to some asset classes, notably gold. Once upon a time gold bulls had to pay a hefty markup to buy coins or had to purchase shares in gold-mining companies and hope that the management was competent. But gold ETFs have been hugely popular, seeing inflows of $12 billion in 2009 and $9 billion in 2010. The largest gold ETF holds more bullion than all the world’s central banks except those of America, France, Germany and Italy. The IMF also has more. The surge of interest in gold ETFs has been encouraged by (and may have in turn contributed to) a rise in the bullion price. If investors lose faith, the market may become disorderly as they scramble to take their profits.

[JBmurc]

Yes, who's done that?

--"Can you plse tell the people which banks recieved the 800bill bailout funds" NO -bernake

[Skol]

--"Can you plse tell the people which banks recieved the 800bill bailout funds" NO -bernake

When did Bernanke take the fifth?

[JBmurc]

2.2 trillion bailouts where did it go??

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5OwtGSLWx0

where the USA debt is at the moment

www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oeg3aZTQek&feature=related

[stevo1]

Ron Pauls view on gold,
http://money.msn.com/money-video/default.aspx?vid=63823066-f163-dd7f-63b1-581eb6aab659%26tab=TheStreet&src=FLPl:videoContainer:play:tag_recent.
,just another "goldbug nutter " skol?

[Skol]

Ron Pauls view on gold,
http://money.msn.com/money-video/default.aspx?vid=63823066-f163-dd7f-63b1-581eb6aab659%26tab=TheStreet&src=FLPl:videoContainer:play:tag_recent.
,just another "goldbug nutter " skol?

"Gold could go to $10,000". LOL

He's nuts all right. I've been hearing the same boring story for years.

[airedale]

Ah, Skol, your faith in paper is touching.

[miner]

POG up = USD down,so people who are in love with the USA hate even the thought of the POG going up.

[Skol]

POG up = USD down,so people who are in love with the USA hate even the thought of the POG going up.

The 10 year gold chart is parabolic, it reeks of danger, I prefer a more prudent approach to my wealth than gamble on the POG.

[trackers]

"Gold could go to $10,000". LOL

He's nuts all right. I've been hearing the same boring story for years.

I'd tell you what boring story I've been hearing for years, but I suspect you can guess what it is

[trackers]

The 10 year gold chart is parabolic, it reeks of danger, I prefer a more prudent approach to my wealth than gamble on the POG.

This is a 10 year gold chart:

3430

This is a picture of a parabola, from which the term parabolic is derived:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Parabola.svg3431

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Parabola.html

[CAM]

I prefer a more prudent approach to my wealth than gamble on the POG.

like the XAL??

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5eXAL&t=my&q=l&l=on&z=l&p=s&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US&region=US

[Skol]

See if this looks like gold, you should stick with it though.

www.chartpattern.com/parabolic_curve.html

[trackers]

Hah! You win this round (always happy to concede when I'm wrong)

[CAM]

See if this looks like gold, you should stick with it though.

www.chartpattern.com/parabolic_curve.html


I suppose it depends where you see the price of gold at the moment.
You could argue its at the end of base 3 and about to double... so not a bad time to buy

[Skol]

like the XAL??

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5eXAL&t=my&q=l&l=on&z=l&p=s&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US&region=US

Yeah nice chart since 1995 but while I've worked for airlines for 42 years I've only bought shares in them for the last 3 or 4. Have a look since about 2008. LOL

POO crashing, airplanes full, what's that mean to you? Or maybe it doesn't mean anything to you.

[STRAT]

Hah! You win this round (always happy to concede when I'm wrong)Dont go doin that Trackers. The only thing that keeps this thread going and going is that nobody admits defeat and when an argument is countered the original point is either deviated from or repeated again and again and again.

By the way, I made a perfect parabola last weekend on the back lawn after deciding to drink beer instead of doing research for Skol :D

[Skol]

Yeah, some bad things happening in the world all right and the best gold and silver can do is go downhill, which means the party's over.

A lot of it's crass stupidity, it's no wonder suckers go broke. I read a story in the WSJ a few days ago about 3 school districts in Wisconsin that had collectively $45m in the bank. To ensure they had sufficient funds for future liabilities, in 2006 they borrowed an additional $155m from a German bank (Depfa) and invested the lot in Collateralized Debt Obligations. The CDO's are now worthless and Depfa Bank wants their $155m back.

Looks to me like commodities might be in for a bad stretch, this means the NZD and AUD are about to decline, could be the USD is set for a comeback. Lots of debt problems emerging in China too and property values declining rapidly, good place to stay away from. Corruption's rampant there and what you read will be the tip of the iceberg, so the USD could be a winner. The WSJ had an article the other day by one observer that reckons from about now the USD is the place to be.

[CAM]

re China

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/29/investors-pile-into-the-bet-against-china/

[Skol]

re China

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/29/investors-pile-into-the-bet-against-china/

Your article reminded me of something I saw in the WSJ a couple of days ago. Hedge funds are employing professional sleuths to dig into the accounts of Chinese companies to ferret out creative accounting. The hedge funds then short the companies. One of them is Sino Forest, which has cost gold punter John Paulson $720m.

[trackers]

Dont go doin that Trackers. The only thing that keeps this thread going and going is that nobody admits defeat and when an argument is countered the original point is either deviated from or repeated again and again and again.

By the way, I made a perfect parabola last weekend on the back lawn after deciding to drink beer instead of doing research for Skol :D

Haha, nice one Strat - Great for the old lemon tree!! ... Agree about this thread, its quite ridiculous really at times, and I try to refrain from opening it / commenting, but sometimes can't help myself :/

I think some people are a bit delusional having spent too much times in the clouds and not enough time on solid ground - Peeow

[Pumice]

Gold taking a bit of a hammering lately.
Trending in the wrong direction if we want to see $5000........

[elZorro]

Gold taking a bit of a hammering lately.
Trending in the wrong direction if we want to see $5000........

Short term gold looks dicey, longer term, no issues at the moment.

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2011-06-30-gold-forex.php

What I don't like is the fact that commodities and oil have turned down, great if you're buying those, and maybe it will avert more serious issues like GFC2. But it also means that it's not the same as we've had for a few months. Shares don't like uncertainty.

[Skol]

I'd tell you what boring story I've been hearing for years, but I suspect you can guess what it is

Yeah, you're right, I won't bore you with it any more. Forcing yourself to read my posts has obviously become very tiresome for you. This is my last one.

I'm over gold and silver anyway. They'll reinstate the gold standard soon and then you'll be rich. LOL

[STRAT]

The price is more about the USD than gold I reckon but its gettin real close to that long term ascending trend line.

[STRAT]

In Aussie money the trendline has been broken but hey, Golds big day to shine was more than two years ago.

[Hoop]

Gold taking a bit of a hammering lately.
Trending in the wrong direction if we want to see $5000........

Trending in the right direction but to reach $5000 it has to reach $3607 on the chart below (real dollars (1998) ) ..That's a big ask even with devalued US currency.
Imagine the global implications 3607 real dollars would have nowadays...It only!!!! reached 2400 (still a historic top) when greed spurred the discovery and subsequent invasion of foreign lands to plunder the native people's gold.

The gold rushes of the 1850s when gold reached the then 300 year highs pale into insignificance now when comparing with the lastest two decade "bubble"

Ref
US Inflation currency calculator (http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/)
Christopher Columbus diary entries (modern speak) (http://library.thinkquest.org/J002678F/columbus.htm)

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/k1vxtzyitknvwjkqmd99.gif

[elZorro]

Hi Hoop, interesting chart. But are you sure it doesn't have more to do with the price of energy? 1920-1970, gold price was low on average, apart from WWII uncertainties, and the USA had lots of cheap oil back then. The current 10-year trend follows the increasing risk and costs of fossil fuels. Until humans find enough cheap, portable energy to replace those dwindling oilwells, gold against the US$ will probably keep going.

[Hoop]

Hi Hoop, interesting chart. But are you sure it doesn't have more to do with the price of energy? 1920-1970, gold price was low on average, apart from WWII uncertainties, and the USA had lots of cheap oil back then. The current 10-year trend follows the increasing risk and costs of fossil fuels. Until humans find enough cheap, portable energy to replace those dwindling oilwells, gold against the US$ will probably keep going.
Hi Elz

Tthere seems to be some loose correlation between oil and gold these last 10 years . I could only chart back 10 years with Oil V Gold though.......has to be remembered that for the 550 years out of 650 year Gold chart, oil wasn't on the radar. ... I'm not sure about the networked effects energy has on Gold so my comment here would only be a guess....interesting point though ElZ

[STRAT]

Nice find Hoop and good point EZ

[elZorro]

This gold-oil ratio chart might be useful too, it has been really stable for two years, goes haywire if the markets collapse though.

http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2011/06/gold-oil-ratio.html

[JBmurc]

big turn round over the last couple days up $20 in the current trading session

[JBmurc]

Yeah, you're right, I won't bore you with it any more. Forcing yourself to read my posts has obviously become very tiresome for you. This is my last one.

I'm over gold and silver anyway. They'll reinstate the gold standard soon and then you'll be rich. LOL

Don't go SKOL I aways love a laugh GOLD- $1544 ......1600+ coming soon Silvers doing really well of late...
Not long now too I get my free bottle of red LOL

[elZorro]

Hi JB, this thread is too quiet now, like you say. I thought it was a rule that if you start a thread, you have to keep going Skol..

How about those gold prices?

Here's a snippet sent by the Equedia weekly sheet (Canada), always worth a read. A new gold exchange has been set up in China, with a huge database of customers.



The Pan Asian Gold Exchange could very well help send the price of gold into new territories.

A New Wave of Capital

The Pan Asian Exchange has signed an agreement with The Agricultural Bank of China (ABC), integrating its customer account information system with their platform.

That means the exchange will have direct access to the accounts of 320 million retail customers, 2.7 million corporate clients, and nearly 24,000 branches. ABC is China's third largest lender by assets. When it went public last year, it became the world's biggest ever initial public offering. It currently ranks No.8th among the Top 1000 World Banks and Forbes Global 2000 named it the 25th-largest public company in the world.

This is where it gets big. Real Big.

Imagine buying gold through your bank with the click of a mouse. The Pan Asia Exchange has now created the first ever rolling spot contract that will allow Chinese banking clients to buy 10 ounces (the minimum transaction) of gold contracts in RMB, through their account, and directly linked to the exchange. If you have an account with ABC, you can instantly buy gold, or gold contracts.

Think about it: 320 million retail customers and 2.7 million corporate clients, all with the same Chinese appetite for precious metals (see Age of America Over? (wlmailhtml:{859F7BC3-BC06-49EC-89C0-293E8B5037B7}mid://00000000/!x-usc:http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=orkbnrcab&et=1106498928869&s=51019&e=001pbW5DjBpz_VhUoVfJ0IG0Qcs3kesAgEt1FfVkevXI5AKz 4wg-mybwCcevda2hImHpHf1ai9fKXupsDN3pi2RwcGNJg5v8GnYC9Z CRbmHM8Nr0tQtdGcpxSsNxwWpq_PzojGGAk1ckh8af3nLdx_MZ 7PGUzEMVDlyjiepbAJS-m4=)); all now able to buy gold in 10 ounce increments with the click of a button.

Once more of these international contracts go live, we`re going to see a strong demand for physical gold as the drawdown of physical gold begins to meet the obligations of the contracts. Buying gold directly from your bank account - that`s real demand. It's essentially like the SPDR Gold Trust, or GLD (wlmailhtml:{859F7BC3-BC06-49EC-89C0-293E8B5037B7}mid://00000000/!x-usc:http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=orkbnrcab&et=1106498928869&s=51019&e=001pbW5DjBpz_VYpbzpwtgHnBR2ID56cbezI4893aSsy9G32 d0mK6tVEmE27k0lDp_K0_pystg5dcUYuOj6EJnE4cX_MyzS_Vd eju22T6PG7BwESA4JSnkNS9N1SovdbT8i90u94ScAPV5Jag8vQ 5uCfhJt09Ho8kDP), with much stricter leverage guidelines.


The rest of this newsheet is also very interesting, reinforcing that China may be returning to be the World's powerhouse of trading and commerce. It certainly looks that way.

[stevo1]

This link from The Australian http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/european-banking-crisis-makes-gold-more-appealing-by-the-day/story-e6frg9ex-1226091873604
YOU can't argue with a 6000-year long record of value, or with a 4322 per cent rise over the past 40 years.
Yes, we're harping on about gold again.
The latest news is that the Swiss parliament is being asked to consider a gold franc, which would operate in parallel with the paper one. The move by the Swiss People's Party will reignite the issue of the gold standard. Switzerland decoupled its currency from the yellow metal only 11 years ago

David Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, said at the weekend that a third round of quantitative easing looked increasingly likely. The latest US job numbers out on Friday just raise the QE3 probability level. More money printing certainly makes gold look even shinier.

[Skol]

This link from The Australian http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/european-banking-crisis-makes-gold-more-appealing-by-the-day/story-e6frg9ex-1226091873604
YOU can't argue with a 6000-year long record of value, or with a 4322 per cent rise over the past 40 years.
Yes, we're harping on about gold again.
The latest news is that the Swiss parliament is being asked to consider a gold franc, which would operate in parallel with the paper one. The move by the Swiss People's Party will reignite the issue of the gold standard. Switzerland decoupled its currency from the yellow metal only 11 years ago

David Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, said at the weekend that a third round of quantitative easing looked increasingly likely. The latest US job numbers out on Friday just raise the QE3 probability level. More money printing certainly makes gold look even shinier.

Not very exciting.

BHP has gone up adjusted for dividends and splits 5439% in 23 years.

[trackers]

Welcome back ^_^

[airedale]

Hi Trackers, always good to get your input. But that manic smurf who bounces around on your posts is a bit wearying on my eyes. How about retiring him for something or someone more artistic/cheerful/bland/uplifting or whatever. :D

[stevo1]

Yeah, you're right, I won't bore you with it any more. Forcing yourself to read my posts has obviously become very tiresome for you. This is my last one.

I'm over gold and silver anyway. They'll reinstate the gold standard soon and then you'll be rich. LOL

"Not very exciting.

BHP has gone up adjusted for dividends and splits 5439% in 23 years."

Bhp has also been down to around $20 now $49.So wasnt that impressive then,also hasnt had a 6000 year history

[trackers]

:(

3461

[airedale]

Good man, Trackers, your post looks better already.:)

[Oiler]

Hi Trackers, always good to get your input. But that manic smurf who bounces around on your posts is a bit wearying on my eyes. How about retiring him for something or someone more artistic/cheerful/bland/uplifting or whatever. :D

Awwww come on Airedale that energetic little bugga was cool, it was Trackers. :D Now look what he has put up. ;)

[shasta]

:(

3461

RIP lil buddy ;)

[trackers]

Awwww come on Airedale that energetic little bugga was cool, it was Trackers. :D Now look what he has put up. ;)

Haha cheers G (and Shasta) - Wish I could set him to only animate in Spring, Summer and weekends :D

I've often wondered whether he annoys people, especially when I post a couple times in quick succession

[elZorro]

Not very exciting.

BHP has gone up adjusted for dividends and splits 5439% in 23 years.

Hi Skol , I've had a few BHP shares (20) for the last few years, I use them as an indicator. If they start turning down, we're in for a bad time with the mining sector. But they are generally a very boring share. Maybe too safe for me when all is on an even keel. Good safe buying at the end of a downturn though.

[trackers]

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=GC&p=d1&s=m

Gold has reached new all-time highs.. Does this look like a H and S forming to anyone else?

Though, just reading Bulkowski and the head should be higher than shoulders.. I think..

[STRAT]

the head should be higher than shoulders.. I think..Its the preferred look for humans and charts :D unless theyve been too close to a guillotine

[drillfix]

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=GC&p=d1&s=m

Gold has reached new all-time highs.. Does this look like a H and S forming to anyone else?


Nope, cant see any head and shoulders in that Trackers.

[trackers]

Tough crowd

[evilroyrule]

you have one shoulder and a head. are you waiting for the other shoulder/down?

[trackers]

Nah I was just in la la land ERR :( But see the potential for redemption there lol

[elZorro]

Check out the Moneychanger's post for last night's gold/silver trading. This chap sells gold and silver, so is fairly bearish on stocks. But this is the first time for awhile I've seen him post he's buying gold, because he expects it to go far higher, very soon.



Weird day. Fates are messing with the markets.

Fear of European financial crisis keeps panicking buyers out of euros and stocks and into dollars and GOLD (http://goldprice.org/) -- but not SILVER (http://silverprice.org/).

I reckon I got something right yesterday, snuffing out the nervousness when I wrote, if gold "trading even HINTS it intends to pierce that [$1,560 resistance] level, gold will race toward $1,575."

Somebody heard that hint today. Overnight the GOLD PRICE (http://goldprice.org/) traded down to 1540, and opened in NY at 1549.60. Stayed under $1,555 until 1:30, when the whispers hit the market. Not sure if that was the time that S&P announced it was downgrading Ireland's debt to junk status or not, but that would surely fit. Literally, next thing I saw was the GOLD PRICE (http://goldprice.org/) at $1,564, then $1,573.25.

Let's deal with that new all-time high close first. On 2 May gold topped at $1,556.70. Today's $13.10 rise took Comex gold to $1,561.90, a new high close. Two interpretations wrestle here: is it a double top, or a breakout beginning a new rally?

Remember the rule of thumb says a market must break out by at least 2% (some say 3%) to qualify as a breakout. That would take gold to $1,587.85 ($1,603.40 for 3%).

Here's the risk. Markets correct downward in three waves, A-down, B-up, C-down. I claim not to be able to discern these, but my untrained eye sees A-down to $1,462, then works at trying to find the rest of B and C. Then I recall that B waves are often so ebullient, especially in bull markets, that they exceed the high beforehand and appear to be breaking out to a new rally, until their bottom falls out in a C-Down that takes them to new lows.

And bear in mind that sudden, jerky moves can reveal strength beneath, but they also are handmaiden to tops.

NOTE WELL that I am NOT calling this move by that name, only explaining that gold's position is nowhere near as clear as the mindless enthusiasts would have you believe.

On the other hand (Mercy! I'm sounding like an economist!) gold has made a slightly higher new high, and a financial crisis is fueling it, and you'd have to be a central banker not to conclude that gold will drive higher for the next few days. Question is, how much higher?

Right here there's not enough tea in China or ham in Tennessee to tempt me to short gold. To turn bearish gold would first need to close below $1,540 then follow up quickly with a close below $1,520. Tomorrow, gold could easily touch $1,600, and run on to $1,625.

All things considered, I would buy here (did buy some today) and not mourn too long if gold fell back down. Why not, because I can't add and subtract? No, only because gold, despite whatever intervening tumbles, will end the year much higher, and scale price heights presently inconceivable even to its cheerleaders.

Did I mention that gold in euros made a new all-time high today, too? E1119, versus old high at E1088, 2.8% higher.

Here's an added twist to yesterday's SILVER PRICE (http://silverprice.org/) story. Silver, as I noted, tends to outperform gold when stocks are strong, and underperform when stocks are weak. Historical fact, not treason. Yet more lurks beneath the surface. When gld rises, most observers expect silver to rise as well, so if you are jimmying the gold price, as Nice Government Men are wont to do, you need to jimmy silver, too, so that the market says, "Gee whiz! Gold is rising but silver is not -- maybe that means the gold rise is phony!" Just a thought.

And what brought that though bubbling to the surface of my boiling brain was silver's behavior.

Yesterday it lost 85c, to 3568.9c. Overnight it sank like a rock to 3475c, but just as swiftly arose from its bed of shame in the gutter, shook itself off, and shot up the stairs to close Comex at 3562.9c, THEN add another 53c in the aftermarket to 3616c.

Meanwhile all the gurus and media voices are intoning their mantra (stocks and silver, remember) that silver is falling in response to reduced global economic expectations. Yeah, maybe. And maybe not.

Add all that up, and I wouldn't short silver with your money. Silver's tussling with its 50 DMA at 3617c, and tomorrow is liable to paint a black eye on all those clever people and run for 3850c.

I'm just doing the best I can to stay long silver, but as quick as I buy it somebody calls and buys it away.

Another tasty tidbit: that wholesale buy discount on US 90% silver coin which stood on 98c under spot on 6 July, today has climbed to 68c under spot. This transpires after a long period when the discount has ranged 115c - 105c. I trust that premium to tell me when silver is serious about rising, and its screaming that right now.

European financial crisis is driving this gold rally, so don't get too excited. Once fuel is withdrawn from a fire, it dies out. Buy sparingly here, with one eye on the end of the crisis, and one on its worsening.

Gold silver ratio (http://goldprice.org/gold-silver-ratio.html) today rose a 0.50 to 43.838. One remember with sharp longing the Fall 2008 US financial crisis and the opportunity it afforded to swap gold for silver at ridiculously high ratios, and to gobble up silver on the cheap. We might see that again, and join in shooting fish in a rain barrel.

Dollar index last night punched thru 76 and ran to 76.70 before the Nice Government Men called out their cowboys to tame that bucking bronco. They managed to run it down today to 75.703, but it was like holding a basketball underwater. Not much changed from yesterday it's now trading at 76.022, but that's as phony as the Consumer Price Index. 'Twill rise again tomorrow.

The euro added more downside to yesterday's gap, down 0.44% to 1.3970. The 200 DMA draweth nigh, and standeth now at 1.3902. The yen slipped out of the Japanese NGM's grip like a bar of soap in a bathtub, gapping up to Y79.18/$ (126.3c/Y100). NGM won't be enjoying sake and sushimi in peace tonight, I dare say.

Markets are whipping stocks like a rented mule. Dow lost 58.88 today to settle at 12,446.88 (down 0.47%) and S&P retreated 5.85 (0.44%) to 1,313.64. Trading was jerky and ragged. Looking bewildered, timid, and scared.

Stocks -- you can count on 'em in a crisis, just like a sprained ankle.

[JBmurc]

Gold breaking out $1576oz high so far new records getting set by the hour 1600+ this month.......

[elZorro]

Gold breaking out $1576oz high so far new records getting set by the hour 1600+ this month.......

Hi JB, even the miners are recovering too. Hope it's not too cold down where you are, did you manage to do any fossicking before winter?
I have my fingers crossed for you, if GEL keeps going, you'll be on the top of the NZX competition table. Wish I'd voted for it..

[JBmurc]

Hi JB, even the miners are recovering too. Hope it's not too cold down where you are, did you manage to do any fossicking before winter?
I have my fingers crossed for you, if GEL keeps going, you'll be on the top of the NZX competition table. Wish I'd voted for it..

no about 22c inside right now thanks to the heatpump.....cold but great snow conditions been up coronet again today super deep snow really fun conditions till the end of the day when the wind got to gale force an they stopped the chairlift for 10-15mins just after we got on it took prob 20mins before we got out of the gale force snow blizzard....
yeah no fossicking to the summer

Yes GEL are doing well I should have invested into my NZX picks rather than my ASX so far this year

[elZorro]

OK JB, my silver bar is back in the black overnight. That's a huge percentage increase. Gold is doing fine too. This has to be a move to precious metals, a flight to gold etc.

Have a look at these charts Skol..

[JBmurc]

Is gold money ???No ....QE3 is coming

-http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3TltMNbgGQ

[JBmurc]

Gold breaking out $1576oz high so far new records getting set by the hour 1600+ this month.......

or maybe tonight ........Skol where are ya ?? isn'tgold meant to be crashing or are you of the thought's of Jon Nadler from kitco which has been GOLD will fall,overbrought ,bubble yaa bahh boo since $300oz just keep calling the fall one day your be right LOL

[tricha]

or maybe tonight ........Skol where are ya ?? isn'tgold meant to be crashing or are you of the thought's of Jon Nadler from kitco which has been GOLD will fall,overbrought ,bubble yaa bahh boo since $300oz just keep calling the fall one day your be right LOL

Yep, maybe tonight, $1593, I have my insurance policy, it's called FML and NGF.

[elZorro]

Hi JB, I think the PM miners knew this was going to happen all along. They're unhedged, kitted up with new gear, buying each other out to make larger companies, already building solid sets of books with no debt.

Here's one article from today, all in all bad news for the USA, but it's a sad state of affairs all round.

http://www.tradingnrg.com/gold-prices-outlook-silver-price-forecast-july-14-2011/

[STRAT]

Wow. a nip under 1600 and Skol seems to have taken a wee holiday. :D

[CAM]

Wow. a nip under 1600 and Skol seems to have taken a wee holiday. :D

Needs to boost those airline shares ;)

[Hoop]

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/cs1a3pr61qt29r1e5q0.png

[drillfix]

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/cs1a3pr61qt29r1e5q0.png


That sure is a nice up trending chart.

Nice chart mark up there Hoop. :)

[Skol]

I'm in Hong Kong, have been very busy.

I love watching the gold and silver gamblers just like I loved watching the property gamblers prior to the meltdown.

Nothing like a bubble to stir the blood.

The property gamblers thought they were bulletproof too. I was working with a guy a few years back who told me how he'd bought an apartment off the plans on the Gold Coast. I suggested that since there was a lot of debt out there and that property had been rising for years it was probably a bubble and due for a very serious correction. He rubbished the idea. When the apartments were finished his apartment which he paid a deposit on for a purchase price of around $2m was worth $600,000 less.

Yep, property was a winner all right, you couldn't tell anyone that it might come unstuck but it sure did.

"You can't lose with land, they're not making any more of it" was the word. Yeah? Have a look around here in HKG.

Dave Ramsey was on TV early this morning talking about bubbles, it was fascinating, says buying property now is probably a reasonable bet. Also said having cash on hand is a winner.

Skol says selling gold and silver now is probably pretty smart too. George Soros and I think alike I guess.

[elZorro]

But Skol, Hoop's chart suggests that gold will bounce up quite a bit yet, before correcting a small amount. Unless something has happened to change the trend of the last two years or so.

[JBmurc]

Skol says selling gold and silver now is probably pretty smart too. George Soros and I think alike I guess...

yeah haven't heard that before but I guess just like jon nadler-kitco just keep trashing Gold & Silvers rise as nothing but spec buying ..An completely forget why countries an millions of investors have been looking towards investments in Precious metals via ,bullion,etf,futures,shares etc

“People are concerned how the U.S. government and all governments around the world deal with money in the future,” he said. “The takeaway of this is we might be at the beginning of the end of fiat currency.”
www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110714DeC_debt.html


The Pentagon recently revealed a program in which bundles of $100 bills were shipped to Iraq – presumably to pay bribes and bills. A total of $12 billion was loaded on 21 flights, packed in huge C-130 Hercules aircraft. Where did the money go? No one knows. But a Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction says $6.6 billion was probably stolen – the largest theft of funds in national history.

[trackers]

Skol says selling gold and silver now is probably pretty smart too. George Soros and I think alike I guess.

I'd posit that you and Soros think nothing alike - He'd be broke if he invested his clients funds whilst ignoring the fundamental rule of buying things when they go up and selling them when they go down, for as long as you have.

This thread has been going since 2009, almost 3 years now, and gold goes up. Then up some more.

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=GC&cot=088691&p=w1

[Skol]

Yeah, you're right guys I was completely wrong about property for a while thinking it couldn't possibly go any higher, but it did. Bubble always go on longer than you believe is possible.

I did sell a property at the very height of the boom and pocketed a profit so colossal it was a once-in-a-lifetime killing, so I haven't always got it wrong.

You should definitely buy some more, gold and silver's a no risk punt.

Anyway, it's beer o'clock in HKG.

[JBmurc]

Q&A between Paul and Bernanke:

MR. PAUL: But very quickly, if you could answer another question, because I'm curious about this ? you know, the price of gold today is $1,580 [U.S.]. The dollar during these last three years was devalued almost 50 per cent. When you wake up in the morning, do you care about the price of gold?

MR. BERNANKE: Well, I pay attention to the price of gold, but I think it reflects a lot of things. It reflects global uncertainties. I think people are ? the reason people hold gold is as a protection against what we call tail risk, really, really bad outcomes. And to the extent that the last few years have made people more worried about potential of a major crisis, then they have gold as a protection.

MR. PAUL: Do you think gold is money?

(Pause.)
MR. BERNANKE: No. It's not money, it's a precious metal?

MR. PAUL: Even if it has been money for 6,000 years, somebody reversed that and eliminated that economic law?

MR. BERNANKE: Well, it's ? you know, it's an asset. I mean, it's the same ? would you say Treasury bills are money? I don't think they're money either, but they're a financial asset.

MR. PAUL: Well, why do ? why do ? why do central banks hold it if it's not ?

MR. BERNANKE: Well, it's a form of reserves. It's a form ?

MR. PAUL: Why don't they hold diamonds?

MR. BERNANKE: Well, it's tradition, long-term tradition.

MR. PAUL: (Chuckles.) Well, some people still think it's money. I yield back. My time is up.

[Skol]

Have fun watching Volcker & Bernanke, I'm off to a bar with a couple of mates where you can watch the talent walk home after work and then a szechuan restaurant for chili prawns.

A gripping evening on CNBC, right JB?

[JBmurc]

Have fun watching Volcker & Bernanke, I'm off to a bar with a couple of mates where you can watch the talent walk home after work and then a szechuan restaurant for chili prawns.

A gripping evening on CNBC, right JB?

hows the head skol be better that Bernanke's or Obama's they both look like they've found out Their puppet masters have sold them down the river....

gripping evening well after been up Cardrona ski field I did take it easy only having a couple at the Cardrona hotel then back for home made pizza with my beautiful wife did watch a bit of RT after the warriors win had- jim rogers , Gartman ,some pro debt euro lady CROSSTALK on the euro debt crisis was good watch with Rogers , Gartman both in the camp of the stopping the massive bail-outs debts an let the weak fail, with the pro-debt professor holding the camp of lets just bailout every stupid bank with tax payers funds

www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4Y1RZlOgWQ

[STRAT]

But Skol, Hoop's chart suggests that gold will bounce up quite a bit yet, before correcting a small amount. Unless something has happened to change the trend of the last two years or so.
Hoops chart says short term trading play to me. No doubt in my mind the world markets will come right eventually and when they do, Gold will get hammered.

Meanwhile $4 away from 1600.

Dont forget a mild 10% gain from here makes gold $1760 :scared:

[hal]

Hoops chart says short term trading play to me. No doubt in my mind the world markets will come right eventually and when they do, Gold will get hammered.

Meanwhile $4 away from 1600.

Dont forget a mild 10% gain from here makes gold $1760 :scared:

Strat
Do you have any time frame in mind for when this is going to happen. I was thinking maybe 4 or 5 years or more.

[Skol]

Hey JB,
You reckon the East is overtaking the West and I reckon it's nonsense.

In today's South China Morning Post there are two articles re. shoddy construction on the mainland, one relating to the collapse of two major bridges in 2 days, and a photo of a block of flats 13 stories high that fell over as they constructed the underground car park.

This will only be the tip of the iceberg.

[robo]

Hey JB,
You reckon the East is overtaking the West and I reckon it's nonsense.

In today's South China Morning Post there are two articles re. shoddy construction on the mainland, one relating to the collapse of two major bridges in 2 days, and a photo of a block of flats 13 stories high that fell over as they constructed the underground car park.

This will only be the tip of the iceberg.

Have you seen that doco "The Crumbling of America" it shows the general crumbling of their infrastruture much of which was done post WW11 when they were awash with cash, the projected bill for fixing it was a silly, silly number.................... I suppose they will just print some money to pay for it all.

[Skol]

JBMurc tells us that one reason for his purchase of PM is because the east is overtaking the west.

The mainland is building the equivalent of the city of Rome every 2 weeks and most of it's done with unskilled labour. In Guandong province a survey showed 89% of the tradesmen were not registered. A cleaner earns 65% more than a plumber.

http://shanghaiist.com/attachments/shanghailaine/minhangbuilding_cleanup.jpg

[STRAT]

Strat
Do you have any time frame in mind for when this is going to happen. I was thinking maybe 4 or 5 years or more.Hi Hal.
In the words of my recently departed friend. Mr P. "I dont do predictions"
Just gotta keep an eye on the ball at all times.

4 or 5 years seems unlikely to me.

[Skol]

I've just been reading an article dated July 14 that reckons that gold will drop in the second half of 2011 and that any drop may be especially violent because of the proliferation of ETF's.

I've raised the subject of ETF's before, no one knows exactly what will happen because at no time in history has it been so easy to purchase or sell gold.

Trackers will know though.

[Skol]

JB,

An article in today's Asian WSJ about the mainland, the master race that will dominate the west.

On the front page are details of chemical spills, evicted farmers, one sets himself on fire, internet shutdowns, beating a pregnant woman and ethnic riots.

One para. says "Chinese security forces are the world's best at containing large scale riots".

China's Academy of Social Sciences says in 2006 there were 60,000 'mass group incidents' (nice words for riots), in 2007 there were 80,000 and 2008, 127,000. Figures are no longer published.

Maybe you can sell your silver, buy an apartment in Shanghai and make your fortune. LOL

One day you'll work out why punters like the USD.

[tricha]

Hey Skol, oh mighty stirrer, regarding your negative spin, why do u do it ????

[tricha]

Hey Skol, oh mighty stirrer, regarding your negative spin, why do u do it ????

Keep up the good work Skol, it keeps us on our toes.

I'm picking they will do a QE3 by stealth. They will print more and more paper. They have to, quite simplely they are broke and living on credit.
Gold is not in a bubble, it is only tracking the demise of the $US, when gold goes to $10,000 an ounce we might have a bubble or we might have hyperinflation in the US.

I'm also picking the world is catching on and the demise will accelerate and any company in the ASX holding large amounts of this worthless paper will be canned.
PPP and NZO were\are in this boat, are these others :confused:

FMG dealing in Chinese currency (The West Australian) (http://wotnews.com.au/view/6981036/)

Fortescue Metals Group has started doing transactions in China in renminbi in a step towards conducting further trade in the Asian superpower's currency.. Tue Jul 2011 04:07 (4 days, 15 hours ago)

[Skol]

If I lived in China I'd probably be buying gold too.

www.theepochtimes.com/n2/china/two-bridges-collapse-in-china-within-24-hours-59169.html

There's an article in today's paper about cadmium and arsenic poisoning, rivers filled with junk, lead in fruit and vegetables, poisoned fish, toxic waste sprayed on fields, sickness and death from heavy metals, residents with skin complaints, headaches, vertigo, nausea, pleurisy, lead poisoning, chronic gastritis, and duodenal ulcers.

Coverups, local mafia, payoffs, threats from local officials, and children with heavy metals in their blood many times higher than accepted environmental standards.

An offshore oil leak and a refinery fire didn't rate much of a mention.

You have to remember of course that the Communist Party would censor the worst news so this news is not all that bad.

China will overtake the USA, yeah right. Hahahahaa

[Skol]

JB,
The master race have a bit of a problem on their hands. The offshore oil spill is 6 times the size of Lake Taupo, but hasn't generated much interest. The refinery fire is worse than reported and 21 miners have been given up for dead. Thousands of miners are killed every year in China so that was a very unimportant detail.

Back to gold though. An interesting article on how much it's worth in the South China Morning Post.

In inflation adjusted terms it still hasn't exceeded its previous high, but an observer in the local rag says if you look at the broader M2 measure of US money supply instead of the monetary base it has risen only by 20% since the outbreak of the crisis. By that measure gold is overvalued by 50%. (Sounds about right)

Compariing it with the DJIA on a historical basis it's overpriced by 28% he reckons.

Quote: "The truth is that the gold price is driven overwhelmingly by sentiment. At the moment that sentiment is powerfully positive, so the price is climbing.
But be warned, sentiment can reverse in an instant. And if it does, the POG, with no fundamental valuation to support it, will drop like a stone". Unquote.

[JBmurc]

Gold smashing through 1600 Silver back above 40 oohh no SKOL your crash of the PGM not looking so good much like the USA balance sheet.....
As for all the bad news on China No ****like the USA or UK never had any bad growth news
I see Inflation here now over 5% Gold overvalued yeah right keep play the tune

[tricha]

Gold smashing through 1600 Silver back above 40 oohh no SKOL your crash of the PGM not looking so good much like the USA balance sheet.....
As for all the bad news on China No ****like the USA or UK never had any bad growth news
I see Inflation here now over 5% Gold overvalued yeah right keep play the tune

Yep if u have not got 10% OF YOUR ASSETS INTO GOLD OR STOCKS as insurance, u r 2 busy flying up in the clouds.
I'm afraid u r going 2 crash and burn.:ohmy:

Dear Reader, Return of the Gold standard.

"It is very scary: the flight to gold is accelerating at a faster and faster speed..."

So says Peter Hambro, Chairman of Britain's biggest pure gold listing, Petropavlovsk.

Hambro told Britain's Telegraph that, "One of the big US banks texted me today to say that if QE3 actually happens, we could see gold at $5,000 and silver at $1,000."

He's talking about nothing less than the return of some kind of gold standard.

Gold and silver bullion are money. When you own them, you own a different kind of currency than paper money printed by governments. Owning them is a way of cushioning your savings against inflation - the kind that may come from more Quantitative Easing.

But if gold and silver DO rise dramatically in the coming months, there could be large gains on offer in gold and silver shares. Precious metals shares give you leverage to rising metals prices in ways that bullion does not.

My colleague and resources expert Dr. Alex Cowie believes silver could make even bigger gains than gold if precious metals rise in the years ahead. He's found two small cap silver miners you should look at if you're interested in leveraging any further silver price rises.

You can find out more here (http://clicks.portphillippublishing.net//t/AQ/AAZAMg/AAZMxA/AARfYg/AQ/AmYIzA/EVSJ)...

Regards,

http://www.portphillippublishing.com.au/images/dansig.png
Dan Denning
Publisher
The Daily Reckoning Australia

[Aussie]

Been away for a while and what do I come back to find . . . Skol is STILL bashing gold. From my recollection he's bashed it from at least $800 on up - always predicting a crash, always on the wrong side of the trade . . .

[STRAT]

Reckon gold will be back below 1600 by the end of the first week in August :eek2:

[Skol]

Been away for a while and what do I come back to find . . . Skol is STILL bashing gold. From my recollection he's bashed it from at least $800 on up - always predicting a crash, always on the wrong side of the trade . . .

Incorrect.

This thread was started at the end of 2009 when it was about $1100.

[Skol]

Yep if u have not got 10% OF YOUR ASSETS INTO GOLD OR STOCKS as insurance, u r 2 busy flying up in the clouds.
I'm afraid u r going 2 crash and burn.:ohmy:

If I had 10% of my assets in gold tricha I'd have an enormous amount of money in gold. I'm not that stupid. Gold shares have been dogs so I'm better off with cash and money in the bank and zero debt.

It's when gold goes in reverse it starts getting tricky.

[STRAT]

Gold shares have been dogs .

Hmm
GOR
BUY price 14c
Current Price 63c
Time frame 9 months.
If thats a dog, I want a pack of em :D

[trackers]

Hmm
GOR
BUY price 14c
Current Price 63c
Time frame 9 months.
If thats a dog, I want a pack of em :D

Yeah but thats from participating in a bubble, which someone as clever as Skol would NEVER do. Oh wait:




I love watching the gold and silver gamblers just like I loved watching the property gamblers prior to the meltdown.

Nothing like a bubble to stir the blood.

The property gamblers thought they were bulletproof too.



1 hour later


Yeah, you're right guys I was completely wrong about property for a while thinking it couldn't possibly go any higher, but it did. Bubble always go on longer than you believe is possible.

I did sell a property at the very height of the boom and pocketed a profit so colossal it was a once-in-a-lifetime killing, so I haven't always got it wrong.



So whats the message we should all take from this? Its ok to invest in a bubble, so long as you don't do so at the top. Got that guys?

For gold that would be somewhere between 2008 and 2012.. I think..

[Skol]

Hmm
GOR
BUY price 14c
Current Price 63c
Time frame 9 months.
If thats a dog, I want a pack of em :D

Ask the gushing investors in NAV on this forum and on HC how they've done. Or OGC for that matter. Overall gold shares have been dogs.

Gold's gone up, XGD down.

[CAM]

I was reading somewhere ..... that the issue with some of the gold shares is that their revenue is priced in US dollars but their expenses are in Aussie dollars( or whichever strong currency you care to choose)... or something to that effect.

[Skol]

Jon Nadler was asked if all this will end in tears.

The answer, "Quite likely, yes."

Front page of today's Business Herald.

[JBmurc]

Jon Nadler was asked if all this will end in tears.

The answer, "Quite likely, yes."

Front page of today's Business Herald.

Jon Nadler is a complete idot or paid to keep up the anti-PGM rants going near every weekday for how many years now ? yet overall he's been wrong for over a decade LOL

[Skol]

Here's a little info from an outfit called RWC. Things are going to happen shortly, no one knows what, but I'd be very nervous if I was sitting on loads of precious metals.

Speculation in gold has soared. Exchange traded funds’ holdings of gold outstrip those of central banks in all but four countries: America, France, Germany and Italy. Warren Buffett, a prominent investor, has questioned the wisdom of this strategy: “You could take all the gold that’s ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that’s worth at gold prices, you could buy all - not some - all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money

[JBmurc]

I see the USD index is near it's all time recent lows 73 once it breaks through that watch it race to the 60's an all goods priced in USD to rise
Gold at which time will be on track to go above 1700 onwards to over 2000oz early next year

Corporations now run the world
-www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3QXZHitbns

[Skol]

JB,

When's the hyperinflation due? Any day now, surely. Been hearing about that for years. Last hyperinflation in the USA was 1861-1865.

[JBmurc]

JB,

When's the hyperinflation due? Any day now, surely. Been hearing about that for years. Last hyperinflation in the USA was 1861-1865.

high inflation first---then depend on how it plays out will depend if the US will have hyper-inflation early this decade or later or not at all as the major world currencies are crashed to make way for a new gobal currency
like here in NZ I'd say the US would also be round 5% at the moment ,the US of course would say it's alot lower but that because they don't include Energy or food prices .....

10 facts on the debt laden USA

#1 Only 58 percent of Americans have a job right now.

#2 Only 56 percent of Americans are currently covered by employer-provided health insurance.

#3 The median yearly wage in the United States is $26,261.

#4 The average American household is carrying $75,600 in debt.

#5 Only the top 5 percent of U.S. households have earned enough additional income to match the rise in housing costs since 1975.

#6 At this point, American families are approximately 7.7 trillion dollars poorer than they were back in early 2007.

#7 The poorest 50% of all Americans now own just 2.5% of all the wealth in the United States.

#8 According to one study, approximately 21 percent of all children in the United States were living below the poverty line in 2010.

#9 Today, there are more than 44 million Americans on food stamps, and nearly half of them are children.

#10 According to Newsweek, close to 20 percent of all American men between the ages of 25 and 54 do not have a job at the moment...."

[Skol]

I only have to read statistic #1 to realise you're reading one set of data and I'm reading another. The unemployment rate in the USA is 9.2%.

42% off Americans are unemployed? Only a goldbug could believe that.

The average family in the USA makes $43000 a year. The average household in NZ is worth less than the USA.

I guess I'm reading the 'mainstream' media right? LOL

[JBmurc]

I only have to read statistic #1 to realise you're reading one set of data and I'm reading another. The unemployment rate in the USA is 9.2%.

42% off Americans are unemployed, only a goldbug could believe that.

The average family in the USA makes $43000 a year.

I guess I'm reading the 'mainstream' media right? LOL

10 facts
www.thetradingreport.com/2011/07/25/broke-10-facts-about-the-financial-condition-of-american-families-that-will-blow-your-mind/

the US population is round 311,800,000 so how many have jobs skol???
www.USDEBTCLOCK.org (US workforce round 140mill)

[Skol]

Yeah right! Unemployment rate 9.2%, from the Bureau of Labour Statistics.

http://bls.gov

[JBmurc]

Yeah right! Unemployment rate 9.2%, from the Bureau of Labour Statistics.

http://bls.gov

your getting unemployed mixed up with working population i.e no way is 90.8% of the pop of US working(babies,kids,stay at home mums/dads,retired,prison etc)

how's your investments going SKOL if your'd leveraged short GOLD long USD your'd since you first talked it up your'd be broke by now.

[Skol]

your getting unemployed mixed up with working population i.e no way is 90.8% of the pop of US working(babies,kids,stay at home mums/dads,retired,prison etc)
Better talk to the Bureau of Labour Statistics then, that's what it says, unemployment rate 9.2%.

[elZorro]

Hi Skol, my silver bar has gone up in US$value by 10% in a couple of months. I almost feel guilty about it..
JB, looking forward to seeing your moniker on the top of the NZ share picks this month, GEL has doubled in price. You must know a bit about the company?

[JBmurc]

Better talk to the Bureau of Labour Statistics then, that's what it says, unemployment rate 9.2%.

-Yeah like they would tell the truth like 12.9% of the US pop was over 65 in 09
-1 in every 100 American adults is locked up (the highest in the world)

[JBmurc]

Hi Skol, my silver bar has gone up in US$value by 10% in a couple of months. I almost feel guilty about it..
JB, looking forward to seeing your moniker on the top of the NZ share picks this month, GEL has doubled in price. You must know a bit about the company?

Well outside what your've put up on GEL I haven't really looked much futher,I was very bullish on the Gold price an as the NZX is so low on good resource plays GEL would have to be the best NZX gold explorer wish I did load up now though

[Skol]

how's your investments going SKOL if your'd leveraged short GOLD long USD your'd since you first talked it up your'd be broke by now.

Pretty good actually, most of my dosh for the last 2 years is in the bank in fixed interest, so I've avoided the worst. My superannuation is $90,000 up on a year ago. OK do you think, considering the recession? I can choose the weighting. My aussie shares have suffered but I have cash on hand and I'm going to drip feed more in over the next few months into quality shares.
I don't leverage, not shares anyway, only property and I sold some of it before the meltdown. Property was a bit like the PM boom, punters think it'll never end, but it always does, quite violently, so I've taken the cautious route. Pays to be cautious at the moment, what's around the corner?

Maybe I'll buy a property there's so many bleeding punters out there. My neighbour's bleeding to death, his place is on the market.

[CAM]

Maybe I'll buy a property there's so many bleeding punters out there. My neighbour's bleeding to death, his place is on the market.

Make sure he digs his gold up before he goes!

[Skol]

Make sure he digs his gold up before he goes!

Wrong neighbour. There's a few stories about guys who bury gold, don't tell anyone and then die.

[OutToLunch]

Wrong neighbour. There's a few stories about guys who bury gold, don't tell anyone and then die.

They're just doing their bit by taking it out of circulation. :cool:

[JBmurc]

"Gold is money. Everything else is credit."

- JP Morgan, 1912

Total central banks' net gold purchases year-to-date have already surpassed the level seen in the whole of 2010.

[percy]

[ just need to stop you quoting my pop and start you selling your own ideas.

AA[/QUOTE]

You are not Gareth's dad are you.?

[JBmurc]

well that's hardly surprising given the moment,


hmm maybe one day someone will quote you JBmurc historically, just need to stop you quoting my pop and start you selling your own ideas.

AA

LOL not planning to start charging others for my personal ideas of the future...have been bullish resources esp silver since 2001

[Skol]

According to the Financial Times 'rally fatigue could be setting in'.

Only dimwits think we're running out of gold and silver. When the price heads south you're gonna see thousands of tons of the stuff hit the market from the ETF's.

The Motley Fool reckons a fair price for gold is $475. Says silver is in a massive bubble. That would make silver about $11. Sounds right.

[denpal]

According to the Financial Times 'rally fatigue could be setting in'.

Only dimwits think we're running out of gold and silver. When the price heads south you're gonna see thousands of tons of the stuff hit the market from the ETF's.

The Motley Fool reckons a fair price for gold is $475. Says silver is in a massive bubble. That would make silver about $11. Sounds right.

Motley Fool review: http://www.investimonials.com/websites/reviews-the-motley-fool.aspx

"Scam journalists who have no idea about investing
Well let me give you an example of how they are no different than the average investor. They are wrong, wrong some more, and then when they could finally be right thy are wrong again. Let me show an example and explain. Lets take the stock symbol CREE for example. Everyone's experienced and heard about how people buy a stock at the top and sell at the bottom. Well there are no better advisors at this then MOTLEY FOOL. On 4/20 and 8/10 which were both earnings dates for CREE, Motley Fool was positive on the company and kept writing about how good the company is and how it could and should go higher. Well 4/20 was them buying at the top. 8/10 is them continuing to tout how good of a company CREE is and how the stock price drop is temporary and there are many good things about the company going forward. On 4.20 CREE was at 82. on 8/10 CREE was at 72. On 10/19 earnings CREE is at 50 and MOTLEY FOOL writes an article after their earnings and says how CREE is going to have trouble ahead and to dump the stock. BUT HEY WHATTYA KNOW, the company bottom at 50 and 2 months later is at 73. If that isn' the finest display of buying high and selling at bottoms then I don't know what is. IF YOU THINK FOR A MINUTE THIS IS THE ONLY EXAMPLE then please see stock symbol CTRP for further example. And there is many more, as I have been watching htem for years. They are clueless on how and why a stock moves. "

[Skol]

From The Australian.

'Peter Morici, a business professor at the University of Maryland, warns that gold is not all it seems.'

"People think it's the only safe haven but the reality is cash is probably the only one," he said.

"Historically, gold can go down almost as much as it goes up."

[JBmurc]

According to the Financial Times 'rally fatigue could be setting in'.

Only dimwits think we're running out of gold and silver. When the price heads south you're gonna see thousands of tons of the stuff hit the market from the ETF's.

The Motley Fool reckons a fair price for gold is $475. Says silver is in a massive bubble. That would make silver about $11. Sounds right.

Only dimwits think the very hard to find high cost extraction of PGM's is in any kind of bubble while ignorer the massive worldwide increase of Fiat debt like never before..

Also the huge decreasing of fresh water worldwide which looks likely to be a bigger problem than Energy early this century

[Skol]

Fresh water shortage, what next? I've had millions of gallons fall on my property, there's no shortage here, I wish the rain would stop. My tanks are full and my paddocks are pugged.

There's always a shortage of something; food, gold, timber, rain, oil, silver, steel, labour, girls (in China), fish, rare earths, uranium, cotton, corn, rubber, rice, natural gas, bees, etc. etc. etc.

It all goes away eventually.

I just thought of an example JB.

Mid 1990's I used to do a bit of shooting not far from here, timber country. The big thing was timber, loads of punters were buying 10 acre lots of it and millions of acres were being planted, plenty of people at work were buying timber for their retirement. P. F. Olsens in Rotorua were selling every acre they could lay their hands on, timber prices were through the roof. I was even considering it myself, it was tempting to join the herd, but being a contrarian I smelt a rat.

Timber became so expensive for a while houses were framed in aluminium and steel.

About that time I had to spend 6 weeks in Vancouver and Seattle and when I saw how much timber was around that area, I knew it was a massive bubble. You could drive for hours and see nothing but trees.

I was right, the timber price collapsed not long afterwards.

BTW, what's happened at OGC?

[elZorro]

I was right, the timber price collapsed not long afterwards.

BTW, what's happened at OGC?

We have a forestry investment maturing soon, 1Ha of pines equiv on an ex-sheep farm, except 10% got flattened in a big storm. The firm who set the partnership(s) up also purchased the only sawmill in the area, so now the shareholders will have to pay the going rate there, or truck logs further. Maybe it'll work out, don't think we'll retire on it though.

OGC, yeah, that's a sad case news release that caught everyone? unawares. Except maybe Phaedrus, who saw only a downtrend. Just shows you how rare gold is though Skol: despite having three mines, heaps of geologists, massive trucks, diggers and the best autoclave in the Southern Hemisphere, Oceanagold is finding it harder to recover the same amount of gold each year. And with cheap energy disappearing for the meantime (oh I forgot, you don't believe in that), it also costs more to extract each ounce.

JB, how did you not manage the top of the NZ share competition table with your GEL share pick in July?

[JBmurc]

We have a forestry investment maturing soon, 1Ha of pines equiv on an ex-sheep farm, except 10% got flattened in a big storm. The firm who set the partnership(s) up also purchased the only sawmill in the area, so now the shareholders will have to pay the going rate there, or truck logs further. Maybe it'll work out, don't think we'll retire on it though.

OGC, yeah, that's a sad case news release that caught everyone? unawares. Except maybe Phaedrus, who saw only a downtrend. Just shows you how rare gold is though Skol: despite having three mines, heaps of geologists, massive trucks, diggers and the best autoclave in the Southern Hemisphere, Oceanagold is finding it harder to recover the same amount of gold each year. And with cheap energy disappearing for the meantime (oh I forgot, you don't believe in that), it also costs more to extract each ounce.

JB, how did you not manage the top of the NZ share competition table with your GEL share pick in July?

yeah I think CHA has a lot to do with it.

As for gold yes grades are dropping fast as we have exhausted the large high grades near surface discoveries now new large discoveries are lower grade higher costs if say GOLD did pulge to 400-500oz worldwide gold production would halve likewise if Oil went much higher costs would also make many deposits uneconomical
NAV had their costs rise to near $2000oz after lower than expected ore grades after mining costs between 900-1200oz of previous Qtrs..Mining esp Gold is very high risk high cost operation..

[stevo1]

Yeah, some bad things happening in the world all right and the best gold and silver can do is go downhill, which means the party's over.

A lot of it's crass stupidity, it's no wonder suckers go broke. I read a story in the WSJ a few days ago about 3 school districts in Wisconsin that had collectively $45m in the bank. To ensure they had sufficient funds for future liabilities, in 2006 they borrowed an additional $155m from a German bank (Depfa) and invested the lot in Collateralized Debt Obligations. The CDO's are now worthless and Depfa Bank wants their $155m back.

Looks to me like commodities might be in for a bad stretch, this means the NZD and AUD are about to decline, could be the USD is set for a comeback. Lots of debt problems emerging in China too and property values declining rapidly, good place to stay away from. Corruption's rampant there and what you read will be the tip of the iceberg, so the USD could be a winner. The WSJ had an article the other day by one observer that reckons from about now the USD is the place to be.


Skol you were buying USD at 83 NZ werent you?Hows that working out for you now that its at 88.3 US to NZ? :(

[Skol]

Skol you were buying USD at 83 NZ werent you?Hows that working out for you now that its at 88.3 US to NZ? :(

I don't try to time the markets too much, nice if you can but I dollar cost average, with shares, currencies and mutual funds. Works for me, I have several funds in USD, one of them going since 1982, I contribute each month. Buying a few more Aussie shares over the next few weeks.

If I owned gold or silver I wouldn't be able to dump it fast enough. The debt crisis is over, lets see what happens now.

[JBmurc]

DEBT CRISIS IS OVER-yeah right

Now that would be a good Tui ad board

[Skol]

If you have look at a NZD/USD chart, its, parabolic, exponential you might say, a bit like silver before it crashed a few months ago, I don't think it's going to be very long before some currencies and metals are going to go in reverse.

I won't be buying any gold shares though, most are dogs, I don't fancy throwing my money away, now's the time for caution, I have cash.

[JBmurc]

By Jim Willie, from an excellent read, "Conscience of a Gold Investor" at http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1311970200.php

"The veritable comedy of the GLD and SLV exchanged traded funds continues to unfold, as COMEX inventory declines match the ETFund short positions in blatant obvious fashion. They are both being gutted by their cartel custodians. The COMEX short contracts are being satisfied by ETFund shares right under the ignorant noses of fund investors, too lazy to open a bullion account, too dumb to know the difference. The Gold & Silver investors will rejoice when both funds are dead, shut down, and the object of countless lawsuits. The actual metal should be pursued, with full distrust and prejudice directed at both the big US banks and the Wall Street masters. These funds are managed by gold cartel banks. Enough said."

[elZorro]

This from WSJ, Diggers & Dealers Conference.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/newcrest-and-co-remain-bullish-on-gold-price/story-e6frg8zx-1226106256642

[CAM]

Korea buys gold

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/01/us-korea-economy-reserves-idUSTRE77069420110801?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&dlvrit=56943

and I read somewhere that China is about to exceed India in gold demand.

[Skol]

Yes, you're quite correct, Korea has bought gold. Why?

Because even the 'experts' make extremely bad decisions and run with the herd.

Same as Gordon Brown selling UK gold at the bottom of the market.

[JBmurc]

Korea buys gold

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/01/us-korea-economy-reserves-idUSTRE77069420110801?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&dlvrit=56943

and I read somewhere that China is about to exceed India in gold demand.

yes many countries have been loading up the most in decades IRAN,MEXICO,RUSSIA also nett buyers of late
So much for the talk round spec buying...

Gold -$1624 looking strong even with a debt ceiling deal done now so much for the dive all the anti PGM crowd were talking up (personal I was hoping for a pullback so I could buy some more cheap goldies)

I see HSBC is planning mass lay-offs round the western world 15,000+ but looks to grow in mass Asian-latin American 30,000+

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Could It be the only way they could sell US dollars

[JBmurc]

Gold up to 1657oz USD up a massive $59.90oz AUD to $1539oz looks like some major shorters had to get out in hurry glad just load up in some PGM shares last few weeks

[Skol]

Gold up to 1657oz USD up a massive $59.90oz AUD to $1539oz looks like some major shorters had to get out in hurry glad just load up in some PGM shares last few weeks

A real example of herd instinct at work. The South Korean Gummint buys gold, this reassures the suckers that all is well, the 'professional investors' and central bankers must know what they're doing.

Speculative manias are always supported by authoritative opinion that comforts the speculators.

[Entrep]

I bought gold and silver overnight in the US. Don't like where this is heading.

[Skol]

I bought gold and silver overnight in the US. Don't like where this is heading.

The gold chart is now parabolic, you're in the danger zone.

I notice there are lots of comments on the internet about the chart being parabolic but overall, everyone says "don't worry, be happy", especially the gold spruikers.

[elZorro]

Skol, I'd agree with you, if all gold miners were making absurd profits. But they are not, look at OGC. It's always been hard work to mine for gold, and it's getting harder.

I'm still happier buying into gold producers or successful explorers, than the metal itself, as the potential for cycled major gains is always there.

US$40 added in one day, that is a big jump, and a solid trend, mostly in the US market too.

[JBmurc]

The gold chart is now parabolic, you're in the danger zone.

I notice there are lots of comments on the internet about the chart being parabolic but overall, everyone says "don't worry, be happy", especially the gold spruikers.

Gold's Chart is far from Parabolic if we move $100 tonight then thats moving parabolic
IMHO if you look at the 5yr or 10yr gold chart the latest move is just another high which will be follow by a higher low a basic strong bull run

If you think the moves of late were Parabolic what about Oct 08 to Feb 09 5months gold went from 692 to 980
for the last 5months golds gone from round 1430 to 1650 now which is more Parabolic SKol??

IMHO gold is still in it's second phase of it's 3 phase bull trend which 2nd started round 20th oct 08 ,the third phase IMHO will be far more Parabolic $100oz moves etc

[Skol]

From the FT - The Gold Bubble - "the dumb money is rushing in" - that's for sure.

http://video.ft.com/v/1090408630001/Gold-bubble

[tricha]

The gold chart is now parabolic, you're in the danger zone.

I notice there are lots of comments on the internet about the chart being parabolic but overall, everyone says "don't worry, be happy", especially the gold spruikers.

You're the one in the danger zone Skol, airlines are crashing.

Gold on the other hand has just left the runway, 10,000 would be a bubble.
IF u get the big picture.

Unfortunately it will be $10,000 US, which might be a loaf of bread or two.

[Skol]

Well let's put it this way, not the airline I work for, POO is not too bad, could be a lot lower, and load factors are good. All is going very well indeed. What recession? There's loads of money out there. Peak oil-hahahaha

The gold bubble reminds me of the POO crash, I'm sure you remember that very well tricha.

$10,000. LOL. Dreams are ALWAYS free. Wasn't FML a favourite of yours, has it been a gold mine? Doesn't look like it.

Looks to me like the USD hit rock bottom at the beginning of May.

[STRAT]

Looks to me like the USD hit rock bottom at the beginning of May.Hi Skol.
Rock bottom when compared to what if I may ask?

[Skol]

Hi Skol.
Rock bottom when compared to what if I may ask?

Euro or USD Index.

[STRAT]

Euro or USD Index.Thanks.........................

[elZorro]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-on-long-losing-streak-apf-546864801.html?x=0

USD basket could go lower yet, from 74 down to as low as 37 (the Moneychanger today). Gold reaching a new high of US$1670 just now. Some big international shares are dropping quite a bit.

http://20smoney.com/2011/08/02/dowgold-ratio-is-dropping-like-a-rock/

[drillfix]

What a swing tonight so far.

Up to 1680 then suddenly or rapidly back down to 1650, Why? who knows, thats the nature of mixed emotions, planning, thinking, actions when everything else seems to be turning into mayhem whilst everything also falls to pieces.

[Skol]

Nothing like the USD when it turns to a can of worms.

Silver's $38, LOL I thought this was supposed to be its moment of glory and it plunges.

http://fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

[float]

Would that be because it's tied to industry applications? electronics ect...

Scarey stuff.... qe3?

[stevo1]

Nothing like the USD when it turns to a can of worms.

Silver's $38, LOL I thought this was supposed to be its moment of glory and it plunges.

http://fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

Skol wasnt it you that said gold offers no yield yet it seems now that $US's now have a negative yield
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/financial-services/us-bank-to-charge-to-holding-fees-as-cash-pours-in-cash/story-fn91wd6x-1226108870508

[Skol]

Just goes to prove that when the worst come to the worst it's not precious metals punters flock too, it's the world's reserve currency, the USD. NZD down 5c in 5 days, probably had to happen, a crash. The chart was parabolic.

[Skol]

The Motley Fool reckons a fair price for gold is $475. Says silver is in a massive bubble. That would make silver about $11. Sounds right.

The Economist says the current POG is a bubble and should be $483, same as The Motley Fool.

www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/07/bubbles

[stevo1]

Hmmmm so theres safety in negatitve yeilding paper of a virtually bankrupted country.The $NZ v $us is still above 83c.

[Skol]

It's not nearly bankrupt and the USA is quite capable of paying its debts, which is why its paper has the highest rating. Some punters wonder whether debt should even be mentioned at all and is of little consequence.

Forbes magazine says the USA should sell gold to intervene and send the POG down and also pay off debt. Sounds like a good scheme to me.

[denpal]

Gold in AUD is at a record ATH, $1590/oz.

Normally gold would have also collapsed on a day like this. I suspect very big hungry hands are catching all sellers today.

Skol what do you reckon now? Not what you expected ay?

[Skol]

Gold in AUD is at a record ATH, $1590/oz.

Normally gold would have also collapsed on a day like this. I suspect very big hungry hands are catching all sellers today.

Skol what do you reckon now? Not what you expected ay?

I doubt it, NCM down $1.45, XGD down 4.55%. If the Economist reckons gold's worth $483, only reckless punters would be dipping their toes in the water. Not what I expected, one of the worst financial routs in recent history and gold takes a dive. The serious money eaks out the USD.

[denpal]

I doubt it, NCM down $1.45, XGD down 4.55%. If the Economist reckons gold's worth $483, only reckless punters would be dipping their toes in the water. Not what I expected, one of the worst financial routs in recent history and gold takes a dive. The serious money eaks out the USD.

Well in the 2008 rout gold went from 926 to 681 a 27% decline. When the DOW bottomed in March 2009 gold had already recovered to be higher than pre-rout. This time it's hardly been affected - yet. So it may end up higher even earlier after the sharemarket bottom.

Silver in NZ is still more expensive than it was at the start of the week due to the fall of the NZD, even though the price of silver in USD has fallen a bit.

[elZorro]

Well in the 2008 rout gold went from 926 to 681 a 27% decline. When the DOW bottomed in March 2009 gold had already recovered to be higher than pre-rout. This time it's hardly been affected - yet. So it may end up higher even earlier after the sharemarket bottom.

Silver in NZ is still more expensive than it was at the start of the week due to the fall of the NZD, even though the price of silver in USD has fallen a bit.

Guess we're all wondering what shares are safe, what investments would be the best. I just had a search for an up-to-date chart for the Dow priced in gold, came up with this one..

http://dowgoldzoom.com/chart_dow_gold_zoom.shtml Note, this last week should be updated soon.

Click on the chart and see the longer-term ones. People like me, who have only tried investing in shares for less than the last 10 years, have been working against the devaluation of those shares compared to something as basic as a gold bar. Sure, some investments pay a dividend, but that decline has been savage. Based on the previous dips, this trend could continue for a while yet, but will eventually flatten off and rebound, and at that point shares will generally be a raging success.

I guess what I take from this, is that anyone who has been able to make a profit or retain their true capital on shares while the trend is backwards, while insiders play the market etc, has done very well. My hat goes off to them.

[Skol]

I guess what I take from this, is that anyone who has been able to make a profit or retain their true capital on shares while the trend is backwards, while insiders play the market etc, has done very well. My hat goes off to them.

Who are the insiders? Have any evidence?

There's always loose talk about the 'shorter's, the 'manipulators', JP Morgan, but I've yet to see any hard evidence. I't the goldbugs feeling sorry for themselves it's not $10,000.

[elZorro]

Who are the insiders? Have any evidence?

There's always loose talk about the 'shorter's, the 'manipulators', JP Morgan, but I've yet to see any hard evidence. I't the goldbugs feeling sorry for themselves it's not $10,000.

Hi Skol, I'm not talking about manipulators of gold or silver, those markets are so big that you'd think it would be difficult. But insiders in even reasonably large listed companies can stage the release of data to the market, can alter the price of two shares before a pre-arranged merger date to meet a magic multiple, buy shares in an unannounced merger target, pursue policies to shake out disaffected or smaller investors, etc. Dig a bit deeper into company politics and board members' other interests, and you will find these situations that are just too coincidental.

[tricha]

Gold in AUD is at a record ATH, $1590/oz.

Normally gold would have also collapsed on a day like this. I suspect very big hungry hands are catching all sellers today.

Skol what do you reckon now? Not what you expected ay?

Looks like its catching up, "the biggest ever ponzi scheme, in the world " , the dollar to get smashed and gold to go to $10,000. There will not be enough gold to go around for all those people holding, worthless paper.
We all know their credit rating should read, "JUNK STATUS"
US AAA credit rating downgraded http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/54450000/jpg/_54450664_006209928-1.jpg (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-14428930)

Leading credit rating agency Standard & Poor's downgrades America's top-notch AAA rating for the first time ever, amid concerns over US debt.

[Skol]

Maybe interest rates will increase, USD will go up and gold will implode.

[denpal]

Skol have you heard, at least one NY bank is charging "custodian fees" if you want to park your cash there, such is the uselessness of cash at the moment. Frankly I'd be worried about getting it back let alone paying them a fee!

[JBmurc]

Maybe interest rates will increase, USD will go up and gold will implode.

yet another Tui ad board quote LOL

[Skol]

Here's article from the Wall Street Journal on what it says are probably the latest bubbles, including gold.

www.smartmoney.com/invest/strategies/five-potential-investing-bubblesand-what-to-do-if-they-pop-1312401852114/

WSJ says gold is probably a bubble.

Economist says gold should be $483.

Motley Fool says gold should be $475 and silver is in a 'massive bubble'.

Gold shares have taken a bath.

Work it out for yourself.

[denpal]

And what if WSJ is wrong and gold isn't in a bubble? The chart looks like a vigorous bull trend to me, year after year.

Gold at $480/oz is below the cost of production by a long way.

In the last month the Dow and the ASX has gone down 10% and HUI is down 1%.............and the ASX XGD is up 1%.............so not sure what you mean here when you say gold shares have taken a bath.

In the last six months it's similar numbers too.

[Skol]

Since the 11th April the XGD has trailed physical gold by 20%.

The HUI has trailed by 23%.

[JBmurc]

Well what I see is a record gold price in USD an AUD an as for my portifilo that I shifted more towards Gold/silver in the last month or so their underlining assets have increased while the fearfull market sells to return to the safe Fiat cash along with the many other trillions sitting waiting an in many cases losing value i.e USD treasury notes to infaltion....where will this cash go too
Qe.3 is on it's way....

Before the years out Gold will have broken through 1700oz min if not 1800oz USD

[Skol]

You know why gold's going up? The same reason alluded too in the book, 'Manias, Panics and Crashes. Gold's going up because gold's going up, the curve is parabolic, see page 2.

www.investorplace.com/53187/making-the-case-against-gold/

Go to goldbug websites and you'll see that the word 'caution' doesn't even enter their vocabulary.

This is what the gold chart looks like:

www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/Parabolic.html

[airedale]

Hi Skol, go back to 31/12/09 when you started this thread. "Gold is poked and Warren Buffet agrees with me" you said. I think that if you had been posting in 2003 when POG was about $300 you would have said much the same thing...Have a nice day.:)

[elZorro]

You know why gold's going up? The same reason alluded too in the book, 'Manias, Panics and Crashes. Gold's going up because gold's going up, the curve is parabolic, see page 2.

www.investorplace.com/53187/making-the-case-against-gold/

Go to goldbug websites and you'll see that the word 'caution' doesn't even enter their vocabulary.

This is what the gold chart looks like:

www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/Parabolic.html

I don't think gold is looking like crossing any trendlines at the moment Skol..there are many good reasons why it should not in 2011, see this article written at the start of the year.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/nick-barisheff/gold-outlook-2011-irreversible-upward-pressures-and-the-china-effect


All of the points made here make a lot of sense. The aging baby boomers worldwide. Dwindling cheap oil and mineral resources, harder to reach gold resources, the pressure on above-ground gold, etc. The return of gold as money, as viewed by many important cultures. Its place in a new world order, underpinning currencies. More mention of oil being bought in other currencies than US$, perhaps that's already happening now, with the payment being converted to gold holdings.

Another thing about gold, it doesn't go belly-up and disappear off the face of the earth.

[Skol]

Many gold punters rely on TA. Speculators tend to buy or sell in the direction of the market trend, I believe is what you are saying, there's no indication of a decline, at the moment.

'Herding', as it is known is sometimes helped by TA that tries precisely to detect these trends and follow them - a self-fulfilling prophecy, in other words as long as gold goes up the herd will jump on board, following the TA, but when it reverses the opposite happens and the herd jump ship all at the same time.

I note that the author EZ is involved in a bullion management company, not likely to say anything else is he? He's only interested in getting more suckers on board.

[Skol]

Hi Skol, go back to 31/12/09 when you started this thread. "Gold is poked and Warren Buffet agrees with me" you said. I think that if you had been posting in 2003 when POG was about $300 you would have said much the same thing...Have a nice day.:)

Yep, I could never have believed it would reach these levels, but like I've said all along, bubbles are unpredictable, they can go far longer than you could ever reasonably expect. The herd don't respect reason.

[JBmurc]

Yep, I could never have believed it would reach these levels, but like I've said all along, bubbles are unpredictable, they can go far longer than you could ever reasonably expect. The herd don't respect reason.

Think your find your getting Bulltrend mixed up with bubbles.....and as for herds ...we'll talking Central banks,countries i.e remember India buying that huge 200 ton lot back at $1040oz from the IMF..
this buying is continuing from many countries & central banks an retail buyers that seek to diverse away from Fiat only assets

Central banks buying more gold
http://blogs.forbes.com/kitconews/2011/08/04/central-banks-continue-buying-gold-to-diversify-portfolios/

Now with the worldwide Fiat debt woes worsening I see the trend to diverse large funds towards Gold more not less in late 2011 an into 2012 .....

Until monetary policy changes, you’re going to continue to see gold go up.....latest news points towards Q.E 3 an a debt ceiling now over 20 trillion ....to see the end of this bull trend in gold the interest rates will have to be alot higher than current 0%

[elZorro]

Many gold punters rely on TA. Speculators tend to buy or sell in the direction of the market trend, I believe is what you are saying, there's no indication of a decline, at the moment.

'Herding', as it is known is sometimes helped by TA that tries precisely to detect these trends and follow them - a self-fulfilling prophecy, in other words as long as gold goes up the herd will jump on board, following the TA, but when it reverses the opposite happens and the herd jump ship all at the same time.

I note that the author EZ is involved in a bullion management company, not likely to say anything else is he? He's only interested in getting more suckers on board.

Hi Skol. I'm just reading a sharemarket book, which implores more use of TA (with a bit of FA grounding first). Less use of broker recommendations (they often have a vested interest), and always ask "Yes, but is this share going up right now?" before thinking about buying in. So who do you trust?

There are many pointers saying gold can go higher. Many miners can't get the stuff out of the ground for less than US$900 an ounce. So I'd expect that at the worst, gold could drop to $1,000 if demand fell away, but it won't ever be back in the low hundreds again (for long anyway), unless the cost of energy drops too. Considering most manufacturers look for a three-fold markup to retail in their cost structure, gold is now too cheap, it should be allowing all miners some hefty profits, and that isn't happening. It's still a tough business.

[tricha]

Looks like its catching up, "the biggest ever ponzi scheme, in the world " , the dollar to get smashed and gold to go to $10,000. There will not be enough gold to go around for all those people holding, worthless paper.
We all know their credit rating should read, "JUNK STATUS"
US AAA credit rating downgraded http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/54450000/jpg/_54450664_006209928-1.jpg (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-14428930)

Leading credit rating agency Standard & Poor's downgrades America's top-notch AAA rating for the first time ever, amid concerns over US debt.

Imm, its been a long time coming, if u do not own gold or gold stocks, you will have a wheel barrow of paper that might buy u a loaf of bread.
Thats what is heading down the track in the near term. Back to the gold standard, no gold = nothing.:(
Sorry Skol the gold bubble has yet to start. By Christmas people will be in full flight to own any gold.

Airlines will be the 1st to crash and burn. ;)

[tricha]

Who wrote this, hmm, someone with less than half a brain.


Looking at that chart tricha, anyone with half a brain would sell gold and buy equities.

[Skol]

Here's what Dennis Gartman says about gold:

"I heard talk of gold as a safe investment, but gold is NOT a safe investment. Gold may be a safe harbour for a couple of days but there's nothing safe about it."

Airline business is great tricha, POO plummeting, peak oil, yeah right. Air NZ sent 2 747's to Las Vegas yesterday full of big spending punters.

[elZorro]

Here's what Dennis Gartman says about gold:

"I heard talk of gold as a safe investment, but gold is NOT a safe investment. Gold may be a safe harbour for a couple of days but there's nothing safe about it."

Airline business is great tricha, POO plummeting, peak oil, yeah right. Air NZ sent 2 747's to Las Vegas yesterday full of big spending punters.

But..But..(splutter) gold has been a safe investment for the last 10 years, not a few days. How many shares are like that?

Great the airlines are full, but anyone knows that a lot of churn doesn't always make a profitable business. Were all aircraft in the air or being turned around? Or are some laid up on the runway? Does this business make an ROI of over 10% every year?

This circular argument always comes back to the cost of energy. No matter how we buy it, it's close to the same figure in terms of cost per kilowatt-hour of heat energy. If/when the major players start producing some real volume low-cost and carbon-neutral energy again, things will change more in line with your thinking Skol.