Gold

[Skol]

Yes I know what you mean SKOL I feel the same why about the anti PGM posts

by the way Silver is 1c off $34oz USD no make that 34.04 now

Sounds good, but depends where you own it, the London silver fix has declined by 11% this year calendar year.

I'll be sticking with AUD and Aussie shares.

[elZorro]

Maybe OGC and other miners will do some moving today Skol..

Looking for some charts for gold with volume, found Trader Dan's blog (http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2011-03-01T00%3A00%3A00-08%3A00&updated-max=2011-04-01T00%3A00%3A00-07%3A00&max-results=4), lots of data there right up to date: HUI, Gold, silver, inflation etc. This latest gold/silver increase is a reaction to rapidly increasing commodity prices - just about right across the board.

The HUI index is also on the move up to an all-time high, this will bring gold producers with it.

[trackers]

Oh look, gold at an all-time high

[JBmurc]

Oh look, gold at an all-time high

Yes Silver at a 31yr high looking forward to silver making it's all time highs in the coming yrs

the price reflect the facts to the anti-PGM --open your eyes--

[elZorro]

Gold is still climbing, so a great day for Goldbugs. I'm as happy as a farmer at the end of a drought..

[Skol]

The water doesn't seemed to have trickled down to OGC EZ.

The place to be is not in NZD at the moment, the NZD is crashing right now, but I haven't heard why.

Great for my Aussie, Asian shares, mutual funds and GBP. Anything offshore in fact.

[trackers]

The place to be is not in NZD at the moment, the NZD is crashing right now, but I haven't heard why.


Doesn't surprise me.....

$10b in the hole + massive handbrake on economic recovery due to some of the most costly natural disasters of all time is probably a fairly good place to start.

[Skol]

Doesn't surprise me.....

$10b in the hole + massive handbrake on economic recovery due to some of the most costly natural disasters of all time is probably a fairly good place to start.

Incorrect, the real reason is John Key has said this afternoon he expects a cut in interest rates from the Reserve bank.

[trackers]

Incorrect, the real reason is John Key has said this afternoon he expects a cut in interest rates from the Reserve bank.

3232

.........

[Xerof]

There should be plenty of natural support for the Kiwi, when ECQ and insurance companies convert their reinsurance proceeds from USD into NZD - only about 7 yards of Kiwi coming the other way like a freight train :mellow::mellow:

I'd hate to see the big swinging dicks get caught short.......

[asc4]

love it trackers

...make it so!

[elZorro]

The water doesn't seemed to have trickled down to OGC EZ.

You have that right Skol, its dropping again as gold goes up. I can only conclude that there are plenty of better gold shares out there, and retail money is moving out, at least. I do expect some big purchases to show up soon, but I'd settle for a gradual uptrend, easier on the nerves.

[Skol]

You have that right Skol, its dropping again as gold goes up. I can only conclude that there are plenty of better gold shares out there, and retail money is moving out, at least. I do expect some big purchases to show up soon, but I'd settle for a gradual uptrend, easier on the nerves.

I know the feeling, oil price soars and AWE dives. Probably because they own oil wells in the ME.

[elZorro]

I know the feeling, oil price soars and AWE dives. Probably because they own oil wells in the ME.

And no better for me today..guess I'll stay at work. Found this article, worrying times ahead for the Fed.

http://www.ob-research.com/A_No-Win_Situation_for_the_Fed

[stevo1]

Cam has posted this on the silver thread
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/03/utah-considers-return-gold-silver-coins/
but the implications for both metals are HUGE if Utah (12 other states have similar proposals) does adopt a silver/gold defacto standard.
Comment from "helicopter Ben" "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke this week dismissed the notion of the gold standard returning to the U.S.

"It did deliver price stability over long periods of time, but over shorter periods of time it caused wide swings in prices related to changes in demand or supply of gold," he told the Senate Banking Committee. "So I don't think it's a panacea."

Bernanke also said that gold couldn't return as the world standard because there's not enough gold in the world to effectively support the U.S. money supply"

Gee thats an easy one Ben just increase the price of gold dont even have to crank the printing press or change $US as the reserve currency
A principle of economics which has been proved time and time again is that people will exchange bad money for good currency whatever that currency is .
Zimbabwe had classic bad money situation where the local population ended up trading anything other than their currency.
A Litre of petrol became currency.
They ended up printing $100 trillion dollar notes that bought sweet FA.

[Skol]

Gold's just another commodity, no different from any other.
Maybe they should introduce legislation that you can pay in any other commodity, silver, platinum, cows, you name it.
It's nonsense.

[stevo1]

Gold's just another commodity, no different from any other.
Maybe they should introduce legislation that you can pay in any other commodity, silver, platinum, cows, you name it.
It's nonsense.

Some think it is complete sense to go BACK to silver/gold currency.:)
"Jeff Bell, a policy director for the Washington-based American Principles in Action (APPIA), which helped shape the Utah bill, told FoxNews.com that passage of the bill would send a message to Washington and other states.

"People sense that in the era of quantitative easing and zero interest rates, something has gone haywire with our monetary policy. But people are afraid to say it," said Bell, who was an adviser to Ronald Reagan's 1976 and 1980 presidential campaigns. "If one state recognizes gold as a valid currency, I think it would embolden people not just in other states but in Washington."

Bell credited Tea Party activists for advancing the legislation this far. Rep. Brad Galvez, who introduced the legislation, is a freshman legislator backed by the Tea Party.

"Saying we now recognize gold as money is a big step forward," he said

[JBmurc]

Gold's just another commodity, no different from any other.
Maybe they should introduce legislation that you can pay in any other commodity, silver, platinum, cows, you name it.
It's nonsense.

yeah cows not precious quite common really but land in good areas more like PGMs

[Skol]

Some think it is complete sense to go BACK to silver/gold currency.:)
"Jeff Bell, a policy director for the Washington-based American Principles in Action (APPIA), which helped shape the Utah bill, told FoxNews.com that passage of the bill would send a message to Washington and other states.

"People sense that in the era of quantitative easing and zero interest rates, something has gone haywire with our monetary policy. But people are afraid to say it," said Bell, who was an adviser to Ronald Reagan's 1976 and 1980 presidential campaigns. "If one state recognizes gold as a valid currency, I think it would embolden people not just in other states but in Washington."

Bell credited Tea Party activists for advancing the legislation this far. Rep. Brad Galvez, who introduced the legislation, is a freshman legislator backed by the Tea Party.

"Saying we now recognize gold as money is a big step forward," he said

I hope they do it, an interesting experiment, the population wandering around with gold in their pockets. A criminal's dream come true.

In times past people did trade in gold but they also carried pistols, daggers, and walking sticks that doubled as guns or flick knives. Doing a holdup in the 18th/ 19th century was fraught with danger because the populace had the means to fight back and did so. Carrying a weapon was a normal part of getting dressed for many.

[upside_umop]

I would really like to see someone try buy everyday items like milk, a paper etc with gold.

How would you know the exact weight and quality?

Lol I can just see it, given that gold is around $1900 (NZD) an ounce, and a bottle of milk is $4, you would pull 0.07 of a gram of gold out of your pocket to pay for it. ($4/$1900*33) Good times for the ones with hard eye sight.

[elZorro]

I would really like to see someone try buy everyday items like milk, a paper etc with gold.

How would you know the exact weight and quality?

Lol I can just see it, given that gold is around $1900 (NZD) an ounce, and a bottle of milk is $4, you would pull 0.07 of a gram of gold out of your pocket to pay for it. ($4/$1900*33) Good times for the ones with hard eye sight.

Come on UU and Skol, that's not how it would work, maybe some gold would be introduced back into coins, but more likely it would be held in treasury like an insurance policy.
Guess what, gold has rested for the week at 1430 or so, above the old highs. Reminds me of the actual quote from Dr Cullen:



Anyway I recall Cullen saying it after one of the mammoth fillybustering sessions came to an end. And it was indeed at that time, but not quite as legend now reports it. My reader has seen the original video footage:

it was the day of 16 August 2000. Parliament has just finished the 7th and final day of the Employment Relations Bill second debate. The Clerk has just announced there will be a debate for the 3rd reading of the ERB.

Speaker Hunt calls for a meal break as both sides stand after what must have been a long morning.

Cullen is heard on the camera mic as he stands saying in a loud voice to his front bench colleagues, “We won, they lost, let’s do lunch”.

[stevo1]

I hope they do it, an interesting experiment, the population wandering around with gold in their pockets. A criminal's dream come true.

In times past people did trade in gold but they also carried pistols, daggers, and walking sticks that doubled as guns or flick knives. Doing a holdup in the 18th/ 19th century was fraught with danger because the populace had the means to fight back and did so. Carrying a weapon was a normal part of getting dressed for many.

Skol Do you not remember when in NZ/OZ threepences/florins/1/2 crowns were silver(in the 60s these were still in circulation).And in the US dimes,quaters,dollars were silver.No difference than getting robbed for cash in your wallet
Upside umop there is a known amount of silver or gold in coins therefore a known amount of value relative to the price at the time of the metals.
If you walk in to a shop and give $100 note for a bottle of milk the diffence is ??????? It is somewhat incredulous argument that one.
I can see skol walking into a shop and cutting a bit of cow off for a paper or bottle of milk ,equally incredulous
I will be very surprised if they do adopt a silver/gold coinage situation BUT if they do the upside for these metals will be HUGE IMO.

[Skol]

If Utah or any other state or province decides to accept gold, then they'll be accepting Krugerrands, Eagles and Maple Leaves. A Krugerrand being worth about $1400US doesn't make for any real liquidity, so who's going to pay for minting the new currency to a high standard and ensuring that there's no counterfeiting?

I'm certain that many goldbugs are hoarding gold thinking that some kind of gold standard is on its way back.

Dreams are free.

[corran]

I reckon regardless of whether the currency is FIAT or backed by something there's going to be more and more electronic transactions in place of exchanging cold cash (or gold or cows ;-)

Over here in Holland there are quite a few things which I can't pay for in cash and the list is growing.

With such an electronic based transaction society, if the money in your account is backed by gold/oil/cows/whatever, liquidity isn't an issue as it can be divided down into any amount necessary...

[elZorro]

Here's some data I haven't seen posted - the 2010 supply/demand figures for gold. It would seem that miners have responded to better prices with more gold supply, as you'd expect. The big question surely must be, what is the demand from India and China likely to be in 2011? Could it simply swamp the surplus of supply, or will we see gold fall back later on?

http://www.tradingnrg.com/gold-prices-bounce-back-in-february-what-will-be-next/

[Skol]

The NZD keeps plunging, so I guess this means that gold is worth more to kiwis that own it.

The main reason I keep money offshore is because I've always been concerned about foot and mouth disease ravaging the NZ economy, but never gave any thought to earthquakes.

It is in fact going to cost the same amount. A 2003 paper for the Prime Minister's office reckoned that foot and mouth, after 8 quarters, would cost about $11 billion. (2003 dollars)

[inghamp]

so where will the money come from to pay for this?

[Skol]

They're going to confiscate your gold.(and silver too)

Just like 1933, so bury it in the garden. I heard they're going to start in Queenstown.

[Skol]

CONTRARIAN WARNING.

On the Stuff website. 'How to invest in gold.' As gold hits its highest price ever, advice on how to buy it.

www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/4739576/How-to-invest-in-gold

[trackers]

stuff = taxi drivers ?

About a year ago the common contrarian warning was ads for gold appearing on TV, and in shopping malls etc. Yet, gold goes higher...

Trying to predict the future remains a fairly futile exercise... ey Skol?

[Skol]

About a year ago the common contrarian warning was ads for gold appearing on TV, and in shopping malls etc. Yet, gold goes higher...

Trying to predict the future remains a fairly futile exercise... ey Skol?

Not long before the oil price crash in 2008 articles started to appear in the newspapers and internet on how to get onto the oil mania.

[elZorro]

Not long before the oil price crash in 2008 articles started to appear in the newspapers and internet on how to get onto the oil mania.

I just wish I'd followed JB's posts less than a year ago and bought some silver, a good easy investment, double your money, maybe it's not too late?

[Hoop]

I just wish I'd followed JB's posts less than a year ago and bought some silver, a good easy investment, double your money, maybe it's not too late?
Never too late buying into an uptrend......its buying into a downtrend that hurts...eh

[inghamp]

Hi all.
Question. So we are seeing countries inflating currencies. Then I read a link posted here recently that stated that many developing nations are jumping off the inflate bandwagon in order to preserve internal stability (allowing their currencies to appreciate).

What effect will this have on gold and silver? Multiple ways to view this. Would like your views. Especially Skol's :-)

[elZorro]

Never too late buying into an uptrend......its buying into a downtrend that hurts...eh

What downtrend Hoop? I'm not sure I know what you mean (:sleep::sleep::sleep::sleep:zzzz)

Skol's mate Doug Casey now thinks gold could reach $5,000 an ounce at the top of a super-bubble, the rationale being that we are in the eye of a storm with another bad phase ahead.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/an-argument-for-5000-an-ounce-gold/article1933098/

Before you rip into Mr Casey, Skol, it seems he's bought a chunk of Argentina and is raising drystock... as one of his investments.

http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.com/archive/01221/trophycase_1221263cl-3.jpg

An argument for $5,000 an ounce gold

John McCrank , Reuters

Published Monday, Mar. 07, 2011 6:51PM EST

Junior resource stocks, while no longer cheap, still present speculators with big opportunities as an unprecedented rally fuels precious metals and the companies that find them, said veteran investor Doug Casey.

Casey, a legendary investment guru who founded and chairs his own researchfirm (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/an-argument-for-5000-an-ounce-gold/article1933098/#), said he would not be surprised if gold hits $5,000 (U.S.) an ounce in the next couple of years, as paper currencies in the United States, Europe, and Japan drop in value.

“Central banks all over the world are creating trillions of currency units and that in turn is creating lots of bubbles,” he said in an interview on the sidelines of the PDAC prospectors and developers convention in Toronto.

“It’s very probable that they’re going to ignite a bubble in gold and they’re going to ignite a really wild bubble in small resource stocks.”
Gold (GC-FT (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/an-argument-for-5000-an-ounce-gold/article1933098/#)1,427.80-6.70-0.47%) hit a record high of $1,444.40 an ounce on Monday as oil prices spiked on political instability in the Middle East and North Africa, and on worries that a downgrade of Greek debt could undermine confidence in the euro.

Casey said he believes that gold is not even close to overvalued. In his opinion, the current economicrecovery (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/an-argument-for-5000-an-ounce-gold/article1933098/#) will not last – we are “in the eye of the hurricane,” he says – so gold’s safe-haven appeal will only get stronger.

He said he also likes the prospects for silver (SI-FT (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/an-argument-for-5000-an-ounce-gold/article1933098/#)35.77-0.10-0.28%), and that if there’s a bubble anywhere in the commodities sector right now, it’s likely in rare earths, a group of metals used to make electric car batteries and electronic devices.

A SIX-YEAR-OLD WITH A CHAINSAW
While there’s a lot of money to be made in speculating on companies that seek out and extract precious metals, it’s a high-risk sector that’s not for everyone.
“For the average person to get into this sector and get overweight in this sector is like giving a six-year-old a chainsaw – it’s very dangerous.”
The stocks are volatile, the commodities fluctuate in value, they require huge upfront capital to extract, and there are huge political risks. Most explorers will fail.
Some, though, will find what they’re looking for, and when they do, their value can grow by 10-fold or even 1,000-fold.
“You only need one of those if you have a halfway descent position in it, once in a lifetime,” he said.
His Phoenix-based firm recommends prudent investors put 90 per cent of their portfolios in lower-risk sectors, like short-term bonds, dividend-paying stocks, and precious metals and gold, while putting the remainder into speculative investments.

[elZorro]

Here's something I hadn't thought of: pension funds, and their minimal current gold allocations.

http://www.ob-research.com/The_Driver_for_Gold_You_are_Not_Watching

[Skol]

Gold stocks getting massacred EZ, XGD down 300 points (4%) and the HUI down 6% in the last 3 days.

Could be the death knell, better unload this silver at the top.

[skid]

The partys over-Could be the death knell. Carry on,youll get it right some day.
I only wish Id bought silver last time you said the partys over..

[Skol]

The partys over-Could be the death knell. Carry on,youll get it right some day.
I only wish Id bought silver last time you said the partys over..

Then buy it this time if I'm such a contrarian warning.

The fact is no one knows what the POG is gonna do. Inflation, oil price, Libya, Euro debt, USD, resources, China, even the 'experts' don't have a clue. They never have, they want to sell gold and sell books to suckers on how to get rich quick.

You may as well throw dice.

If you've put money offshore over the past few years and you live in NZ, you're laughing.

The NZD is going to tank for a fair while I'd say.

[elZorro]

Hi Skol, it's a crap day for the PGMs and goldies. But I do recall that usually when the Dow goes down, money flees into USD, and then a day or two later PoG goes up. But I'll wait and see.

[Skol]

I've just done a comparison of the HUI and SPDR gold trust shares, which are supposed to reflect the POG.
The HUI has outperformed the SPDR by 50% over the past 2 years, so there's still quite some retracing to do.

[skid]

Skol, Ive got my silver,thanx. We live in uncertain times.A bit of silver as an insurance policy is a good thing IMO.
Im simply pointing out that since you have been warning about silver it has more or less doubled in value.Noone knows what will happen from here ,but newcomers should know this information.

[Skol]

Skol, Ive got my silver,thanx. We live in uncertain times.A bit of silver as an insurance policy is a good thing IMO.
Im simply pointing out that since you have been warning about silver it has more or less doubled in value.Noone knows what will happen from here ,but newcomers should know this information.

What silver did you buy?

[airedale]

Interesting and informative charts from Colin Twiggs on gold, silver and other matters. Colin has no axe to grind and only comments on the market trend.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2011-03-10_gold_forex.php

[skid]

Silver maples about 6 mo ago I didnt want all my eggs in one basket I know,I know,you can eat eggs but not silver LOL

[JBmurc]

what did you do with those silver bars SKOL maybe you should give me one if I win this years bet on silver if I lose I'll buy you a air ticket of the same value your original believe silver to be value at ..

Trying to top up my Kiwi silver saver at the moment like to get it to 2000oz this year need 250oz more but everyone on trademe is outbidding me ...guys selling 1oz rounds for $60oz ea I was buying not long ago for $25-$30 not really wanting to pay more than $55 atm but give it another 6months it should be $70+NZD so what looks expensive but will look cheap when the major shorters run out off time

[elZorro]

Unusual for the Aussie market to show such a positive early direction for gold this morning, unless it's all exchange rates, which is possible. And silver, looks like it'll be $37 soon.

[Huang Chung]

Apparently japan to release massive liquidity.

[Skol]

what did you do with those silver bars SKOL maybe you should give me one if I win this years bet on silver if I lose I'll buy you a air ticket of the same value your original believe silver to be value at ..

Trying to top up my Kiwi silver saver at the moment like to get it to 2000oz this year need 250oz more but everyone on trademe is outbidding me ...guys selling 1oz rounds for $60oz ea I was buying not long ago for $25-$30 not really wanting to pay more than $55 atm but give it another 6months it should be $70+NZD so what looks expensive but will look cheap when the major shorters run out off time

Too bad if silver/gold crashes a la 1980. It'll be over for a generation, your super scheme will be wiped out and you'll be giving it to the kids and telling them to get a few tank fulls of gasoline.

Still have the silver, sorting out my mother's financial affairs and I'm in the USA at the moment, home of crashing currency, a pending bond implosion, and 30% unemployment, but everything looked quite normal a few minutes ago as I went down the road to pick up a few beers.

[JBmurc]

Too bad if silver/gold crashes a la 1980. It'll be over for a generation, your super scheme will be wiped out and you'll be giving it to the kids and telling them to get a few tank fulls of gasoline.

Still have the silver, sorting out my mother's financial affairs and I'm in the USA at the moment, home of crashing currency, a pending bond implosion, and 30% unemployment, but everything looked quite normal a few minutes ago as I went down the road to pick up a few beers.

USD won't crash with Q.E 2 still helping keep the debt afloat and with Q.E 3 comming soon I don't think we'll see the USD crash for awhile min early 2012...
As for my Silver wiped out yeah right
my kids getting gasoline I'd hope in 10-15yrs electric cars Bio fuel etc will be far more advanced with the help of many hundreds millions oz Silver the worlds most indispensable metal..

[Skol]

I haven't checked the XGD, looking at a few share prices it's gonna be ugly, but I noticed a minute or 2 ago the sheep selling off PDN, so I bought a few.

[Skol]

USD won't crash with Q.E 2 still helping keep the debt afloat and with Q.E 3 comming soon I don't think we'll see the USD crash for awhile min early 2012...

LOL, it's always next year.

[JBmurc]

LOL, it's always next year.

Like your picks of PGM crashes LOL looking forward for another $100 on the silver bet or let me guess Silver is going to crash to 10oz because it's way overvalued

[Skol]

Where are the goldbugs? It's crisis time, earthquakes, volcanoes, war, tidal waves, oil price spike, unrest in the ME, end of the world according to the religious cranks.

I expect to see the POG 'skyrocket' as the bugs like to say.

[upside_umop]

I guess Bill Grosser can be counted as 'smart money' - he has sold up all his USD Tresuries I heard? Not a great sign for the US I must admit.

An equal worrying sign for gold was an advert I just saw on TV by Bullion buyers?...it started off along the lines of:

"Kiwis want an investment that will hold it's value over time....gold will always hold it's value"

To top it off, it was a 'Colin Meads' style farmer. We all know where that went when he last advertised something!

[JBmurc]

I guess Bill Grosser can be counted as 'smart money' - he has sold up all his USD Tresuries I heard? Not a great sign for the US I must admit.

An equal worrying sign for gold was an advert I just saw on TV by Bullion buyers?...it started off along the lines of:

"Kiwis want an investment that will hold it's value over time....gold will always hold it's value"

To top it off, it was a 'Colin Meads' style farmer. We all know where that went when he last advertised something!

so you think anyone taking his advice will end up like the many hundreds of NZ'er left broke on high risk property deal they financed ...

So Investing in blue chip etc like investing in Gold bullion ....Chalk an cheese IMHO

A investor buys a Blue chip share in time it's worth nothing --- The same investor now buy's Gold bullion the price goes south big time(unlikely) from his paid $2000oz NZD to what ? a lower value "oh no" $1500...$1000 now if sells he will only get back part of his investment but it's his choice he owns the gold 100% he can hold sell average down he can travel to anywhere in the world an exchange the gold for a fiat currency of his choice as the investment he holds is accepted everywhere(and has been for thousands of years) it's his choice..

[upside_umop]

No, I heard an advert on the radio today talking that property investment in NZ was still the number one way to become wealthy....surely they can't be right too? If you're a Joe Average, who do you believe?

Investing in gold bullion is worse than investing in most other asset classes - as proven by long term back testing. Not even the same return as Treasury bonds but has the same volatility as the stockmarket. That is commonly known as a 'risk to reward ratio that doesn't stack up.'

Your scenario that you paint JB is in sharp contrast to that of the bullion advert that 'gold always holds it value' - your scenario says gold could potentially be worth 50% less? If thats holding value...I hate to see what a loss is!

[JBmurc]

"Kiwis want an investment that will hold it's value over time....gold will always hold it's value"

To top it off, it was a 'Colin Meads' style farmer. We all know where that went when he last advertised something

this was your post I was replying to.. you put across that a gold bullion investment could end up like other advertising investments -blue chip etc ...in turn meaning you could lose ALL your invesment-- (if the ad for gold was advertising the ownership if gold bullion at your own place of storage off course)

many investor over the last decade have been very happy with their bullion value at present I for one am very happy some of my funds are in Silver bullion..you may not see it as a good investment going forward that is your decision you may think holding NZD at the local bank is a far better choice or property ...recent history tells you that holding a savings account is better than the guy holding silver ...but for me I care about the future and at present time I see massive devaluation/debasement of world currencies and a mass of humans increasing and their demands of better living standards also increase a finite world that only holds some much ...

[stevo1]

I haven't checked the XGD, looking at a few share prices it's gonna be ugly, but I noticed a minute or 2 ago the sheep selling off PDN, so I bought a few.

Good luck with any uranium stocks skol the backlash against nucleur power is set to be severe and prolonged (rightly or wrongly) with this Japanese situation .The alternative greener alternatives are likely to be on the up even dirty old coal may be a better bet.The other thing it goes to show is NOTHING is really safe as an investment if true and utter disaster strikes there would have been plenty of cattle washed away as well as gold,money ,houses and (God help them )people.
POO is down ,stocks are down,tourism and travel likely to be down in future.Gold steady,silver steady.(both near highs)

[Skol]

It's the old story on PDN, buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpets. Who remembers Chernobyl, ask anyone under 30 and they'll think it's a new drug.

There are 440 nuclear powerplants in operation and 300 more on the drawing board.

I keep hearing that gold is an investment that's timeless, 5000 years.
Well there's USD debt, Euro debt, earthquakes, colossal loss of life, war, ME unrest, oil spike, pending bond crash, tidal waves, USD implosion. Goldbug heaven, and what's gold do?

Nothing LOL, what a waste of time.

There's a 2 page article on gold in todays WSJ and nothing in there would tempt me touch it.

It's very likely the XGD will fall below the 200 day MA today.

[Skol]

http://www.tiptoptens.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/sam-adams.jpg

Have a Sam Adams or two for me Skol :t_up:

Haha

Actually I had a couple Asahi Drys, I'm doing my bit for the Japanese economy, mught even do it a bit more this afternoon.

[Skol]

Gold $1391 / Silver $34 so much for the 'safehaven'.

Punters have been buying the doomed USD, fancy that.

XGD below the 200 day MA.

Money in boring bank deposits not so bad after all JB, right?

[elZorro]

Er, Skol, have a look at the 6 month pattern for USD, that giant head and shoulders TA thing actually worked as a predictor and it's now at 76.4, close to the recent bottom. Some goldbugs have been predicting a gold correction if it didn't keep going through 1450. But I think it's too early to tell, the next few days will be interesting. I have to admit that in all the global turmoil, and Japan is uppermost in my mind, the US looks fairly benign.

[Skol]

Here's one for you JB, from the latest Barrons, under the heading 'A Contrarian Look at Investing'.


'In 2008, crude oil became one of the very last assets to experience a bear market, and ended up by plummeting by more than 75%.
In 2011, crude oil is enjoying a reprise of its favorite role , with silver gladly joining in as best supporting actor or actress.
One important lesson learned from 2008-which has been learned by amazingly few investors-is that once risk assets begin to transition from major bull markets to major bear markets, there are virtually no exceptions. Just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a falling tide lowers them without sparing any special cases.
Those that believe that silver, crude or any other major risk asset can remain immune to a major bear market will have to learn the same lessons they should have learned 3 years ago.'

[Huang Chung]

Gold $1391 / Silver $34 so much for the 'safehaven'.

Punters have been buying the doomed USD, fancy that.

XGD below the 200 day MA.

Money in boring bank deposits not so bad after all JB, right?

I would have thought the irrational sell off in gold or silver would be a perfect buying opportunity. The fundamental for precious metals just got a whole lot better.

I tool the opportunity to top up my holdings in Chesser (CHZ), which is looking pretty cheap at the moment.

[JBmurc]

Gold $1391 / Silver $34 so much for the 'safehaven'.

Punters have been buying the doomed USD, fancy that.


right well my silver has return round 100% this year even at $34(thanks to the weak NZD) Tax free now what has your term deposit returned during that time nett
6% max less fees less tax ====5/8s of FA add in real Inflation you might be up couple percent yeah real good

shares wise even though my Goldies Silver Oil shares haven't really performed all that well I'm up over 40% for the year...

Money in boring bank deposits not so bad after all JB, right?---LOL

[elZorro]

From Nell Sloane, SMR, 16 March 2011:



GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

In the face of events in Japan and the Middle East, the gold market seems to be largely discounting the beginning of the Indian Wedding season and that highlights the markets focus on big picture geopolitical conditions. Gold continues to behave like a classic physical commodity market and not a classic safe haven instrument, as gold prices this week seem to be tied to the action in global equity markets. While the gold market at times overnight seemed to garner some minor support from reports of fresh violence in Bahrain and oil prices have managed to rebound, gold and other physical commodity markets are likely to be buffeted by quickly changing macro economic cross currents for the rest of the week. In the end, the bull camp needs to get beyond the Japanese crisis without sustained economic damage to the world economy, while some in the bear camp already think that the crisis has managed to take the growth and inflation threat off the table in the short term. The bear camp probably looks forward to the US Housing Starts and Permits data, as those figures are expected to soften. Comex Gold Stocks were 10.984 million ounces down 85,923 ounces. Gold stocks have declined in 11 of the last 20 days. The gold market looks to claw out some minor gains this morning, as the trade is hopeful that news flow from the Japanese nuclear front might slow today. As suggested already, gold is tracking its physical commodity market fundamentals closely and therefore the bull camp needs the crisis to turn in favor of containment of the radiation threat and that still appears to be up in the air. Critical support in the April gold contract might come in this morning at $1,393.10 and while the bulls might have an early edge, that tilt could be lost quickly. A number of technical traders suggest that April gold contract needs to close above even number $1,400 to begin to challenge the bear case.

[Skol]

Gold $1391 / Silver $34 so much for the 'safehaven'.

Punters have been buying the doomed USD, fancy that.


right well my silver has return round 100% this year even at $34(thanks to the weak NZD) Tax free now what has your term deposit returned during that time nett
6% max less fees less tax ====5/8s of FA add in real Inflation you might be up couple percent yeah real good

shares wise even though my Goldies Silver Oil shares haven't really performed all that well I'm up over 40% for the year...

Money in boring bank deposits not so bad after all JB, right?---LOL

100% for the year, damned good reason to sell. Gold can't get going in one of the worst times in modern history they're talking about on CNBC.
Things are probably worse in Japan than reported because of the asian tendency to lose face, they'll be looking at the situation through rose-tinted glasses, pretending it's not happening.

Bet there's lots of people around the world wish they had their money in boring bank deposits rather than some other investments right now.

Cows will be OK as well, because if things get out of hand, who will want to eat radioactive meat from the northern hemisphere?

[JBmurc]

100% for the year, damned good reason to sell. Gold can't get going in one of the worst times in modern history they're talking about on CNBC.
Things are probably worse in Japan than reported because of the asian tendency to lose face, they'll be looking at the situation through rose-tinted glasses, pretending it's not happening.

Bet there's lots of people around the world wish they had their money in boring bank deposits rather than some other investments right now.

Cows will be OK as well, because if things get out of hand, who will want to eat radioactive meat from the northern hemisphere?

There's lots of people that wish they had brough Silver bullion when it was 700-800kg not the 1800+ some are paying now

As for bank deposits if you like on are latest Silver bet you can send me $100 bonus bond when I win LOL

A good reason why GOLD isn't 1450+(got off HC)
1) the yen carry trade is unwinding. cash is being repatriated to Japan. gold is being sold to balance the cash outflows (short term resolution)
2) available cash is the #1 form of trade as opposed to credit generated cash. Physical gold is being sold to generate available cash.

The YEN has surged and that is why gold has fallen --yes the YEN is at all time highs

[elZorro]

Yes, that makes lot of sense JB. In that case US$ gold prices should, in time, revert to their normal higher situation relative to the US$, and the US$ basket price is sitting down at 76c. Best I hold onto my OGC.

[Skol]

.Things are probably worse in Japan than reported because of the asian tendency to lose face, they'll be looking at the situation through rose-tinted glasses, pretending it's not happening.

As I suspected, reports in the WSJ this morning that the nuclear disaster in Japan is "60% man made", because the power company procrastinated, hoping to protect their assets.
However it looks as if things are under control and gold won't be "going to the moon" to use the goldbugs favourite expression.

[elZorro]

Hi Skol, I think that as well, the power station was to be decommissioned a month ago, but its operating license was reinstated for 10 years. It's an old station, 30-40 years old, and there are bound to be lots of newer designs that would be safer in situations like Japan just had. I hope it all works out in the end.

I 've just read this article, some good info on reasoning behind the USA money printing, but more to the point, what to do with that money. (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2011-03-18_economy.php)

Lots of unrest on the horizon, and I think gold will go partway to the moon.

[denpal]

Too bad if silver/gold crashes a la 1980. It'll be over for a generation, your super scheme will be wiped out and you'll be giving it to the kids and telling them to get a few tank fulls of gasoline.

Still have the silver, sorting out my mother's financial affairs and I'm in the USA at the moment, home of crashing currency, a pending bond implosion, and 30% unemployment, but everything looked quite normal a few minutes ago as I went down the road to pick up a few beers.

Have you read the book "When Money Dies: The Nightmare of the Weimar Collapse" by Adam Fergusson, London 1975, showing people's experiences in Germany 1920-1923. It was a time of tremendous economic activity as everyone rushed to spend all their money before it depreciated. There are some amazing stories there as the currency depreciated, buying blocks of property on an foreign student's allowance such was the exchange rate. Those on fixed incomes and savings were bankrupted basically. The winners were foreign currency holders. The working class did better than the middle class as their wages were more frequently adjusted due to strike action and unions. These days you would substitute gold for foreign currencies I suspect.

The book can be downloaded free off the net as a PDF here: http://isohunt.com/torrent_details/197378233/2451dfa3113cca1ca5140eb63b6c5355dc44c8c6?tab=summa ry

[Skol]

I know all about the Weimar Republic thanks.

A different era, one the goldbugs love to revisit to imagine how rich they're going be when the dreaded hyperinflation strikes. Hyperinflation needs a certain set of circumstances to occur and right now they're not anywhere in sight.

Dreams are free though.

If you believe hyperinflation is a real possibility you should sell everything, buy yourself some land that you can live off, a good sized farm would be even better, you can't eat gold, no one will have the money, or goods to buy it, you'll have to trade it for something. You'll need a gun, and some ammo too, to keep the starving masses at bay.

I keep hearing that the world's on the brink of meltdown if I can use that phrase at the moment, but everything seems quite normal. I've just been in Europe where there weren't too many homeless, the pubs and restaurants were full and lots of young people, especially young women were smoking, so given the price of cigarettes they're not that poverty stricken.

In London, East European (and other) spongers take advantage of the UK's lax property laws to squat on other peoples properties and then go on the dole. What a life. One long suffering woman had to spend 50,000 pounds in legal fees to evict these bludgers from a property she owned.

It can't be that bad, right? Everything seems hunky dory and quite normal to me.

[Skol]

The FT reports Colonel Gadhaffi is about to unload 144 tonnes of gold to finance his showdown with the rebels.

[elZorro]

He's a lucky guy - no government sets the value of gold, and if he can sneak the country's gold reserves (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/588ce75a-53e4-11e0-8bd7-00144feab49a.html#axzz1HIcOzSvN)out of Libya, he could sell it via a third party or swap for arms, food, or cash. Many other countries are holding gold for similar reasons.

[Skol]

Wait 'til the word gets out what the third party paid.

[elZorro]

OK Skol, I think you're on the ropes this week re: a lower gold price, because the USD basket is dropping, as needed. (http://jsmineset.com/2011/03/22/broad-dollar-index-continues-sinking-lower/) I would guess the "Gold buys the Dow" chart will be also trending down like normal.

So the USA and most other economies should be able to write their debts off somewhat, with inflation.

Here's an interesting blog, (http://pricedingold.com/)see article for March 20 2011. That data fits the logarithmic dollar decline really well.

This powerpoint style promotion for Moneyweek (http://www.fsponline-recommends.co.uk/page.aspx?u=toxicvid&tc=LMYKM310&PromotionID=2147067523&)covers their impression of issues in the UK and Europe, and suggest investors get out of property, bonds, most shares. Investments should be in targeted stocks providing necessities, and dividend payers.

But they recommend buying bullion, and even more, gold stocks, the real money to be made there. You have to wade through three issues of Moneyweek first, to read the special gold report. They think gold could easily reach $2,200 odd, and perhaps a lot more.



Quoted from Elzorro: Lots of unrest on the horizon, and I think gold will go partway to the moon.


It's not often I have the luxury of being right for once: gold kept going up overnight (23 March) and is near $1340/oz.

[skid]

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews201103220DeC_focus.html

[denpal]

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_032211.html

The Gold Bull Is Speaking - Are You Listening?

Stewart Thomson
email: stewart@gracelandupdates.com
email: stewart@gracelandjuniors.com
Mar 22, 2011

1. You’ve taken care of buying gold market put options for insurance, if you are nervous about a correction. Now let’s get back to your gold party.

2. There is no top in gold, and silver is not “overvalued”. Most investors are either bored or demoralized, having watched gold do little since October. Gold stocks have fared worse.

3. I don’t see it that way. I think most investors are looking out the back window instead of the front. That action is going to prove extremely costly to them.

4. I see you facing a new and extremely exciting range, which is gold $1400-$1700. You can watch the golden ship sail away, or face the range. Get on your gold trading horse and ride!

5. As of yesterday, I personally entered “ultra-active” gold and gold stock trading mode, while I watch most around me in “turtle in the shell” mode. Don’t cat nap, or you might wake up 15 minutes later, and find you missed the entire $1400 to $1700 ride! My mantra for the gold $1400-1700 area is “ramp it up now, to my golden maximum!”

6. Ramp up the activity, and be careful about how much capital you allocate to this new range. Just because we’re dealing with a new range of price does not guarantee that price cannot descend back into the lower part of the $1300-1400 congestion area. Still, it’s time to move forwards. Your focus now is the golden grid between $1400 and $1700!

7. If your core positions are in place, consider adding risk capital to actively trade gold in this new range. I’m buying gold every $2 down and selling every $6 up, with no missed buys, and am giving serious thought to buying every $1 down and selling every $3 up.

8. Yesterday I told subscribers that if we traded to $1435, the one-month top pattern in gold would be destroyed. We did trade there, so the pattern is finished. Click here now to view my one month gold chart.

9. Here’s a look at the longer term consolidation. As far as I’m concerned, price has already broken out upside, and the party is on! You can hide in a hole in the ground with all the top callers if you like, but my repeated suggestion is to buy some put options insurance, and re-join the party people on the long side. Click here now to view the longer term gold party chart!

10. Look at RSI. This situation is not a top. It is a consolidation. Consolidations have a 67% chance of consolidating the existing trend, which is up! Could the situation change, and it all unravels? Of course it could, which is why you buy your put options if you are nervous.

11. The oscillators are flashing buy signals, and price shows a down sloping mini rectangle, which frequently occurs as price rises up out of a consolidation! The party is on, and I feel very lonely here. Oh well, I’ll have to tough it out with just myself and my one friend… the cash register!

12. Here’s the GDX chart. I’ll give the bears their little microscopic head and shoulders top pattern. It sits there, viewable with my microscope, within the huge consolidation, within the mighty bull price blob! Attention bears, prepare to get mauled to death by the bull. Run, while you still can, because there’s not going to be much left of you at gold $1700!

13. Of course GDX could decline into the $40s, but I highly doubt that you are going to be lucky enough to see that, and buy it as it occurs. Price has a 67% chance of blasting higher, and I began what can only be described as a maniacal gold stock trading program yesterday.

14. My trading is going maniacal in terms of frequency of trading, not in terms of plopping wild amounts of risk capital or leverage into my perceived $1700 target.

15. The silver top callers are about to meet the lone ranger’s silver bullet. Silver is not overpriced or overvalued. It is over-top called, and nothing more.

16. Here’s the silver bullet chart. I’ve highlighted the SIVR-NYSE silver bullion fund. Price is gapping higher while the top callers and team silver shorty pants tries to figure out what is going wrong, again, with their toilet paper money obsession.

17. Look at the oscillators on SIVR flashing one buy signal after another, a veritable parade of “death to the bears” signals!

18. Sadly, this chart is not a buy signal for those who own no silver. Those with no silver bought at vastly lower prices (I’m talking about buying silver at well under $10) need to focus on doing what you failed to do on the buy side in silver in the late 1990s, in natural gas and food, now.

19. Don’t be a market fan. Be a market winner. There are many silver fans now, but few big winners. To get you started in food so you become a winner while millions flock to food later at vastly higher prices as fans, here’s the corn chart.

20. Corn is in a spectacular uptrend, with the MACD trading at deeply oversold levels, and showing a monster buy signal as price bounces off the parallel uptrend demand line. Look out your market window. Who do you see buying and building core and trading positions in corn?

21. The answer is that you see nobody buying corn except people like myself, and paid subscriber (& billionaire) T-Rex. Food rivals gold as the world’s lowest risk investment. Many can read that sentence, but, how many can live it?

22. As the Japan nuclear meltdown occurred, my pyramid generator (“pgen”) went into hyper-active buy mode. Twice uranium opened on a gap down move, and all-time panic selling volume sent most uranium investors to the US dollar in a cash-chasing frenzy, while my buy orders rivalled my Dow buying program fills into 6500 in 2008.

23. Click here now to view the 60 minute uranium chart. I had to move the volume down further in the chart settings because it was blocking the price bars it was so high! Uranium has moved like gold leaping from $1400 to $1800, yet I have received almost zero emails of a single booked profit from anyone, while my own uranium profit booking fills are coming into like a radioactive-free torrential downpour of money!

24. It is imperative that you conquer fear. Click here now to view the daily uranium chart. This chart shows epic buy signals, and that is after price has already made a “gold $1400 to $1800” type of super move upside! In all markets fear must be conquered. I don’t buy the gold top stories, and the only way to conquer your fears about such topping action is to trade smaller than you know is rational. Really, there should be very few days when you are not seeing buy or sell fills in the market on your trading positions, and all of them should be winners. Selling gold market and gold-related assets at a loss is an exercise in stupidity. Trade smaller, but get more active so you live in the now, rather than looking out the rear window of the most exciting time of the bull market!

March 22, 2011
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
website: www.gracelandupdates.com
email for questions: stewart@gracelandupdates.com
email to request the free reports: freereports@gracelandupdates.com

[stevo1]

It's the old story on PDN, buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpets. Who remembers Chernobyl, ask anyone under 30 and they'll think it's a new drug.

There are 440 nuclear powerplants in operation and 300 more on the drawing board.

I keep hearing that gold is an investment that's timeless, 5000 years.
Well there's USD debt, Euro debt, earthquakes, colossal loss of life, war, ME unrest, oil spike, pending bond crash, tidal waves, USD implosion. Goldbug heaven, and what's gold do?

Nothing LOL, what a waste of time.

There's a 2 page article on gold in todays WSJ and nothing in there would tempt me touch it.

It's very likely the XGD will fall below the 200 day MA today.


Gold $1446.5 silver $38

[elZorro]

And the Twigg report has some good data for March 24 (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2011-03-24_gold_forex.php), all pointing in the same positive direction for gold. If it breaks past 1440, it should get to 1500.

What if gold is a currency, not a commodity? Two older articles that look into this:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703908704575433670771742884.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7841961/Gold-reclaims-its-currency-status-as-the-global-system-unravels.html

Here's the very interesting chart I found a couple of posts back, seems hard to get on google.

March 20, 2011
The Half-Life of the Dollar (http://pricedingold.com/2011/03/20/the-half-life-of-the-dollar/)

I've been studying the US Dollar lately… Looking at where it's been, and wondering where it may be headed in the future.
In February of 2001, the US Dollar would buy about 121 mg of gold. In March of 2011, it will buy about 22 mg of gold, a decline of 82%. This drop has been gradual, and the intervening years have been filled with the sell-offs and rallies that are common to all markets. This period has been characterized by massive and growing public and private debts, central bank manipulation to keep interest rates artificially low, and the creation of trillions of new dollars to keep the financial system liquid and stave off recognition of personal, corporate, municipal, state and federal bankruptcies.

But a closer look reveals that the decline has not been linear, but logarithmic – just like the decay rate of radioactive particles. Physicists refer to the rate of this decay as a "half-life"… Knowing this number lets them answer the question, "How long will it take for the radiation level to fall in half?"
In the case of a currency, how long does it take for its value to fall in half?

It turns out that over the last 10 years, the half-life of the US Dollar has been 3.5 years. In other words, every 42 months, the dollar loses half of its value! Here is a chart:

http://pricedingold.com/charts/USD-predict.png (http://pricedingold.com/charts/USD-predict.pdf)

So unless something changes (for better or worse) we can expect that by the end of 2015, the dollar will be worth about 10 mg of gold (or put another way, that an ounce of gold will cost about $3,000). The key phrase is "unless something changes".

What could change? Invention of a new technology that could extract large quantities of gold cheaply, perhaps from sea water… Or a dramatic rise in real interest rates, the sort of thing engineered by Paul Volker to end the inflation of the 1970s. These things could push the relative value of the dollar up, and the price of gold down.
On the other hand, there could be a dawning realization that the dollar is doomed – that the US Government cannot possibly repay its obligations without simply creating the dollars to do so out of nothing – leading to a dollar collapse. If this happens, the dollar, like so many other fiat currencies before it, will have no value at all. Just like the previous US currencies, the Continental Dollar and the Confederate Dollar, or more recently, the Zimbabwe Dollar, it will become of historical interest only. In this case, it makes no sense to talk about a gold price at all… as the collapse gets underway, the price of gold will go higher and higher without any limit, until no cares about dollars any more. Those holding gold and other real assets will be preserve their purchasing power, while those holding dollar-based financial assets such as bank accounts, CDs, T-bills, government and corporate bonds, and even most stocks, will be wiped out.

Psychologists often talk about normalcy bias, the tendency of people to assume that things in the future will be about the same as they have been recently. Usually, this works out fine; but from time to time, a "black swan" appears that causes things to change directions unexpectedly.

But what should we expect the dollar to do? Should we expect that next year its value will about the same as it has been recently? Or should we expect the decay of the last 10 years to continue? I think the latter is the most likely. And then there are the black swans, the things that are very hard to predict, but are always a possibility that must be considered and prepared for.

By monitoring prices in gold, keeping cash balances diversified in precious metals and multiple currencies, and by investing to grow your net worth in terms of gold, you will be well positioned for any eventuality. I am working now on some strategies to take advantage of the half-life of the dollar – let me know if you are interested in hearing more!

Filed under monetary universe (http://pricedingold.com/category/monetary-universe/) by editor http://pricedingold.com/wp-content/themes/sem-reloaded/icons/pixel.gif (http://pricedingold.com/2011/03/20/the-half-life-of-the-dollar/)

Now if you ask me, that graph looks too tidy to be a mistake or a coincidence.

Another chart is the CGX or WGX: (http://minefund.com/wordpress/2011/02/25/massive-milestone-achieved-for-gold/)

[Skol]

Gold $1446.5 silver $38

Gold $1426

[stevo1]

Gold $1426
HA HA HA bless you skoly you are incorrigible ;)

[denpal]

Apart from that Skol has missed out on a very strong trend more so in silver than gold. I cannot see why he chooses to deny the devaluation of paper money against hard money which is what we're talking about.

[Skol]

Apart from that Skol has missed out on a very strong trend more so in silver than gold. I cannot see why he chooses to deny the devaluation of paper money against hard money which is what we're talking about.

In 1980 punters were saying EXACTLY the same thing.

I've got my moolah in about 5 different currencies and I'm more than satisfied.

[denpal]

In 1980 punters were saying EXACTLY the same thing.

I've got my moolah in about 5 different currencies and I'm more than satisfied.

Except that all currencies are depreciating against hard assets.......

[denpal]

Skol you're on the slippery slope aren't you?

The share chart is a top Canadian silver miner, First Majestic, now a $2B company. The maths is enlightening, investing in this against holding depreciating currencies.

[Skol]

Lots of things have appreciated against the USD, the AUD for example, where I have a fair amount of cash. At its highest ever level at the moment.

Even the cows I own have appreciated 20% against the USD in the last year.

I'll keep an eye on First Majestic though, looks as if it's about to head south. Silver up 100% in the last year, First Majestic up 700%, anyone with any brains at all will be covering their tracks. Interestingly, there's an article in the Economist on hedging 'tail-risk', a worse case scenario, causing massive losses. I know there are lots out there are exposed to it with gold/silver with a larger than normal allocation. Depending on who you listen too, gold could fall up to 75% in a worse case scenario. It's like believing in God they say, better off believing than risking the consequences of being wrong.

I own a factory that I bought many years ago. I found out after talking to a roading engineer 2 days ago, Countdown are gonna build a supermarket over the road exactly opposite.
Now that's real money, not a few ounces of gold or silver.

Ironically, I had no idea, until the roading engineer asked me if I new I "was sitting on a goldmine".

[JBmurc]

Lots of things have appreciated against the USD, the AUD for example, where I have a fair amount of cash. At its highest ever level at the moment.

Even the cows I own have appreciated 20% against the USD in the last year.

I'll keep an eye on First Majestic though, looks as if it's about to head south. Silver up 100% in the last year, First Majestic up 700%, anyone with any brains at all will be covering their tracks. Interestingly, there's an article in the Economist on hedging 'tail-risk', a worse case scenario, causing massive losses. I know there are lots out there are exposed to it with gold/silver with a larger than normal allocation. Depending on who you listen too, gold could fall up to 75% in a worse case scenario. It's like believing in God they say, better off believing than risking the consequences of being wrong.

I own a factory that I bought many years ago. I found out after talking to a roading engineer 2 days ago, Countdown are gonna build a supermarket over the road exactly opposite.
Now that's real money, not a few ounces of gold or silver.

Ironically, I had no idea, until the roading engineer asked me if I new I "was sitting on a goldmine".

well good to here won't feel so bad about taking another $100 off you this year

[Skol]

well good to here won't feel so bad about taking another $100 off you this year

I got lucky.
Bit like gold/silver over the last few years, when punters stop buying the game's up.
It's all a matter of risk/luck. Some buy lotto as an investment, arguably the biggest risk and biggest reward, others buy government stock, the least risk, but even they can get lucky if something dramatic happens like the CHC earthquake, interest rates drop, and they make a capital gain.

[denpal]

First Majestic plans to double silver production to 15M oz pa by 2015. Currently 7M oz, 8M oz this year then 12M oz for 2013 etc all funded out of cashflow, and no debt or hedging. They have managed to build all this up with only 107M shares outstanding. So they aren't just benefiting from POS increases but organic company growth also. EPS looks like around $C1.25 this year. I have been a shareholder since 2006. I agree with you, nothing is immune from a worst-case scenario. Even silver of all things apparently has a high historical correlation with the SPX according to Adam Hamilton of Zeal.

[Skol]

Dennis Gartman on CNBC says QE2 will finish on time and there won't be a QE3. Bad for gold and silver.

An interesting programme on yesterday in the USA-Stossel. Things are supposed to be bad, right?

Investigated the homeless who sit around with signs like "No job, need money", or even ""No job, need beer".
Stossel walks around and ofters these spongers jobs, but oddly enough, they all had bad backs or were unable to work for some reason.
Most of these bludgers earned around $90 to $150 per day. One commentator urged the public not to give money to these parasites because it encourages more of them.

[JBmurc]

Dennis Gartman on CNBC says QE2 will finish on time and there won't be a QE3. Bad for gold and silver.

An interesting programme on yesterday in the USA-Stossel. Things are supposed to be bad, right?

Investigated the homeless who sit around with signs like "No job, need money", or even ""No job, need beer".
Stossel walks around and ofters these spongers jobs, but oddly enough, they all had bad backs or were unable to work for some reason.
Most of these bludgers earned around $90 to $150 per day. One commentator urged the public not to give money to these parasites because it encourages more of them.

No QE3 yeah right it might not happen straight away but it will happen

[stevo1]

Dennis Gartman on CNBC says QE2 will finish on time and there won't be a QE3. Bad for gold and silver.

An interesting programme on yesterday in the USA-Stossel. Things are supposed to be bad, right?

Investigated the homeless who sit around with signs like "No job, need money", or even ""No job, need beer".
Stossel walks around and ofters these spongers jobs, but oddly enough, they all had bad backs or were unable to work for some reason.
Most of these bludgers earned around $90 to $150 per day. One commentator urged the public not to give money to these parasites because it encourages more of them.
Skol your blind belief in CBNC reporting is astounding and the view you choose to side with on reporter Stossel's selective reporting and lack of humanity for the less fortunate is underwhelming to say the least.

[Skol]

Ithink we might be all starting to lose a bit of interest.
I'm not surprised, the DJIA has outperformed gold by 7% in the last 6 months.

[elZorro]

Ithink we might be all starting to lose a bit of interest.
I'm not surprised, the DJIA has outperformed gold by 7% in the last 6 months.

Hi Skol, I thought you weren't so keen on the Dow Jones ;). I had a google look for the next gold direction, and many pundits are undecided, as you say. But most assert gold is still in an uptrend. Some banks had gold options closing recently, and there have been some obvious gold price drops at the start of the NYSE sessions.

Asian demand for gold is increasing, some interesting facts in this article. (http://www.resourceintelligence.net/massive-raw-gold-shortage-in-china-supply-and-demand-crunch-looms/16928)

Gold has spent quite a while near US$1420 lately, and that is the high from the last ramp up. With most gold stocks following the gold price at the moment, I'm keen for gold to show new upwards movements. Maybe next week..

[Skol]

The point I'm making EZ is that gold's lustre seems to be fading. I spend a lot of time in the USA, and in the last couple of months I haven't seen much at all on gold, no ads, TV programmes, or newspaper articles.

The stockmarket's spectacular recovery is the news at the moment.

I'm reading an article on gold now in a magazine. One para. reads;

'Other investors go so far as to say there's a gold bubble, inflated by the biggest wave of economic anxiety since the Great Depression, that will burst the moment people stop being nervous about the economy. Jason Apollo Voss, a former fund manager and the author of, 'The Intuitive Investor:A Radical Guide for Manifesting Wealth', predicts a big sell-off in gold - its price falling by nearly half - some time in the next 2 years. "I just don't like to invest in things that depends on people's nervousness," Voss says.'

[elZorro]

The point I'm making EZ is that gold's lustre seems to be fading. I spend a lot of time in the USA, and in the last couple of months I haven't seen much at all on gold, no ads, TV programmes, or newspaper articles.

The stockmarket's spectacular recovery is the news at the moment.

I'm reading an article on gold now in a magazine. One para. reads;

'Other investors go so far as to say there's a gold bubble, inflated by the biggest wave of economic anxiety since the Great Depression, that will burst the moment people stop being nervous about the economy. Jason Apollo Voss, a former fund manager and the author of, 'The Intuitive Investor:A Radical Guide for Manifesting Wealth', predicts a big sell-off in gold - its price falling by nearly half - some time in the next 2 years. "I just don't like to invest in things that depends on people's nervousness," Voss says.'

Yes, that's one way of looking at it, if you believe gold has no use and is overpriced. With current energy prices and lower grades, gold costs about US$600 per ounce to get out of the ground on average, not including exploration and capital costs.

I filled up one of the cars and the lawnmower container today, cost $145. If I was flatting, that's about 1 week's rent in a cheap flat. Food for a week could be similar. Not much left over for spending if you're on an average wage, and look what happened in 2008. I think people should be nervous. The Dow Jones is pumped with QE1 and QEII. It has also risen because the US$ basket has dropped, and is still dropping. The US government might even be shut down for awhile as they've run out of temporary funds. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/03/us-usa-budget-idUSTRE7321P120110403?pageNumber=1) And America is better off than many countries in Europe.

So gold has needed to reflect all this: a constant of currency basket value if possible, a response for increased extraction costs, and a flight to safe haven assets for those who desire it. I think the TV ads for gold will be back when/if US$gold hits new highs, they're saving their costs while it's harder sell. There must be some smart money going in though, otherwise the gold price would have collapsed in the meanwhile, and it has simply found support.

[stevo1]

This article from the Business spectator;
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/UPDATE-3-Geithner-warns-US-to-hit-debt-ceiling-by--FLU8L?OpenDocument&src=hp1
This should be a warning for anyone invested in $US and perhaps even US assets,I am sure someone will correct me if I am wrong but this is unprecedented in US history.
The suggetion that the US sells its gold reserves has been ruled out as unworkable
"To attempt a fire sale of financial assets in an effort to buy time for Congress to act would be damaging to financial markets and the economy and would undermine confidence in the United States," Mr Geithner said.
To me that says that says fiat $US would be worthless without retaining gold backing to a degree in fact a defacto gold backing of sorts and an incentive to get into gold/silver/platnum/just about anything other than $US.

[elZorro]

This article from the Business spectator;
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/UPDATE-3-Geithner-warns-US-to-hit-debt-ceiling-by--FLU8L?OpenDocument&src=hp1
This should be a warning for anyone invested in $US and perhaps even US assets,I am sure someone will correct me if I am wrong but this is unprecedented in US history.
The suggetion that the US sells its gold reserves has been ruled out as unworkable
"To attempt a fire sale of financial assets in an effort to buy time for Congress to act would be damaging to financial markets and the economy and would undermine confidence in the United States," Mr Geithner said.
To me that says that says fiat $US would be worthless without retaining gold backing to a degree in fact a defacto gold backing of sorts and an incentive to get into gold/silver/platnum/just about anything other than $US.

Great article Stevo1: this comment on it is telling:



Russell Palmer wrote:
The western world is still in the habit of looking to the US for moral and financial leadership (See US to reach debt ceiling by May 16: Geithner (http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/UPDATE-3-Geithner-warns-US-to-hit-debt-ceiling-by--FLU8L?OpenDocument), April 5).
It's time we woke up to see that they have slipped from their former high ideals. The US is addicted to free spending without retaining the hard work ethic to back it up. They have to make budget cuts in the short term and work harder in the longer term. It's time for the US to look to China for inspiration – at least in its work ethic.


This is all about the end of cheap energy, that's what is behind it. We see all those vacuous TV programmes from the US, how much fun everyone is having with all their "stuff", and we try to copy that over here. Time to get real - people are going to have to work harder on average for awhile, and get by with less luxuries.

[elZorro]

What the hang happened to the gold price overnight? Still going above $1454, a massive bump up on the American market. This is the opposite direction to normal from them. They're still trying to get agreement on budget funding for Congress.

http://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-Budget-deal-close-apf-731194465.html?x=0&.v=19

Short bets on gold are being removed and heaps of new long bets placed.. (http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Speculators-add-to-bullish-gold-positions-CFTC-data-37867-3-1.html)

Another article found, similar sentiments, gold going up. (http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Metals-Outlook-Mideast-turmoil-and-oil-focus-for-gold-37834-3-1.html)

[Huang Chung]

What the hang happened to the gold price overnight? Still going above $1454, a massive bump up on the American market. This is the opposite direction to normal from them. They're still trying to get agreement on budget funding for Congress.

http://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-Budget-deal-close-apf-731194465.html?x=0&.v=19

Short bets on gold are being removed and heaps of new long bets placed.. (http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Speculators-add-to-bullish-gold-positions-CFTC-data-37867-3-1.html)

Another article found, similar sentiments, gold going up. (http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Metals-Outlook-Mideast-turmoil-and-oil-focus-for-gold-37834-3-1.html)

Yeah, was looking to be down when I hit the sack, so happily surprised to see the overnight bounce.

Whether it translates into the share price of our goldies is another matter....

[Hoop]

Forget US politics elZorro..Gold just did an expected technical breakout ...textbook style.

However sadly it is measured in the downtrending US Dollar

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/gold04042011.png

[trackers]

Gold absolutely dominating overnight!

Any reason why? I don't expect my goldies to benefit much (as per usual /frown)

[JBmurc]

Gold absolutely dominating overnight!

Any reason why? I don't expect my goldies to benefit much (as per usual /frown)

yeah they should do with AUD gold up $25 to $1409 am confindent the strong USD gold move will add a good touch of postive sentiment to the PGM shares that we hold today

[stevo1]

Forget US politics elZorro..Gold just did an expected technical breakout ...textbook style.

However sadly it is measured in the downtrending US Dollar

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/gold04042011.png

Hi Hoop don't get me wrong on this because I am not trying to discredit TA (or the technical breakout )it is very useful BUT the underlying causes can be linked to US policy (IMO).If the "unthinkable" were to happen and US defaults on debt what then?More likely to return to inflating their way out of it,either way metals as a store of value looks more attractive into the future.

[JBmurc]

worth a watch-http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UE7QcVN5tC8

[Hoop]

Hi Hoop don't get me wrong on this because I am not trying to discredit TA (or the technical breakout )it is very useful BUT the underlying causes can be linked to US policy (IMO).If the "unthinkable" were to happen and US defaults on debt what then?More likely to return to inflating their way out of it,either way metals as a store of value looks more attractive into the future.

Nothing new in politics when setting the budget...Opposition parties have only limited opportunities to exert their influence... budget time is one of those times...happens in all countries all of the time...It happens that US Media make a big deal out of trivial matters to justify an event (such as trying to find a reason for today's rise in gold).

The real reason has been going for months now....American investors are the most powerful in the world and most international goods and services are denominated in US$ currency. When the US$ currency is crap (downtrending) you don't have to have a high IQ to know when not to hold on to something for too long. Unless you trade frequently with US$ its best not to hold onto it and being an American and preserve wealth its best to transfer your money to something that's isn't depreciating and easy to trade such as gold.

So look at the US$ chart and tell the logical investment strategy for a downtrending item ...it is don't hold downtrending assets ..don't buy into downtrending assets....The market is just doing exactly this.
Forget about the media BS they only telegraph the possible excuses why something rises or falls on a daily basis.
Think about it...if the rest of the world was doing great and there is no bad news to report except for the one and only downtrending asset in the world, the US$, I'll bet my socks the Gold chart would do exactly the same as now...go up.!!!

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/US05042011.png

[STRAT]

Hi Hoop
POG in Aussie Dollars paints a different picture eh? It peaked 2 years ago :scared:

[elZorro]

Hi Strat, interesting chart. I think it's a 'goose head pattern' and 75% of the time it breaks out upwards anyway :eek2:. (Too lazy to read up on TA, my problem). So depending on the news and international events which have formed this pattern (agree with Hoop, it didn't just create itself), we should see a result soon. Good luck to all PGM holders.

Looks like further interest in gold on the London exchange. This will be another all-time high for gold in US$ if it keeps going.

[shasta]

Gold closing at $US1460.10/oz overnight, & heading towards $1500/oz should be a good day for precious metals

[trackers]

Gold closing at $US1460.10/oz overnight, & heading towards $1500/oz should be a good day for precious metals

Silver at 30 year high and copper up 2.5%! Hope so!

[Skol]

For the last 6 months you could have had your money in gold or the AUD, both appreciated about the same.

Sooner have my cash in AUD, it's unlikely to do a '1980'.

[Skol]

According to CNBC, now it's the end of the world, apocalypse loonies buying gold.

www.cnbc.com/id/42253645

[elZorro]

According to CNBC, now it's the end of the world, apocalypse loonies buying gold.

www.cnbc.com/id/42253645

I just wasted 5 minutes reading that Skol. Is CNBC like NZ, with no NZPA to fall back on? Hardly a well researched article. I just wanted to say that have you seen -

1. The PoG lately
2. The PoSilver lately
3. The US$ basket?

The US$ might fall another 10% yet. Gold at the moment looks unstoppable. And I'm not looking to buy any physical gold, just hold my PGM shares. I don't want a collapse of the US economy, I'm sure they'll come to an agreement before midnight in USA, about their budget. Holding goldie shares is just commonsense at the moment.

[Skol]

I'm quite happy with my BT Natural Resources Fund (up 21% for the last 12 months) and owning shares in AUD. The AUD is reckoned to be a substitute for the POG and certainly much more liquid.

[elZorro]

I'm quite happy with my BT Natural Resources Fund (up 21% for the last 12 months) and owning shares in AUD. The AUD is reckoned to be a substitute for the POG and certainly much more liquid.

Sounds like safe but unspectacular returns, that's better than I'm doing so far Skol. But I do have some faith in the gold price helping OGC out for a few months, while they get organised. Pity they don't mine much silver. Silver's broken the bogey US$40 an ounce, easily.

Why the sudden change in gold and silver overnight? The latest split in Congress over funding (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/08/us-usa-budget-idUSTRE7321P120110408)is getting more hard-nosed, although it has been compared to arguing over the bar-tab on the Titanic.

[Skol]

I made a mistake EZ, the BT NR fund is up 43% (in NZD) for the year, I forgot about the dividend, not bad, and diversified. And best of all I don't do anything.

Too bad if Congress solve the problem what then for gold and silver?

This would hardly make me run out to buy gold or silver, it's hard to find anything about it on CNN's home page, not even a major headline.

[elZorro]

I made a mistake EZ, the BT NR fund is up 43% (in NZD) for the year, I forgot about the dividend, not bad, and diversified. And best of all I don't do anything.

Too bad if Congress solve the problem what then for gold and silver?

This would hardly make me run out to buy gold or silver, it's hard to find anything about it on CNN's home page, not even a major headline.

The impasse at congress has been resolved for a few days. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/09/usa-budget-idUSN0814456520110409?pageNumber=1)

Gold still rested at $1475, over $1500 should be next. These are amazing times, some goldies in production are gaining 5% a day, so it shouldn't take long to get a 43% return. I'll let you know if I ever make it Skol..

[Skol]

The impasse at congress has been resolved for a few days. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/09/usa-budget-idUSN0814456520110409?pageNumber=1)

Gold still rested at $1475, over $1500 should be next. These are amazing times, some goldies in production are gaining 5% a day, so it shouldn't take long to get a 43% return. I'll let you know if I ever make it Skol..

Hope you do, the trickiest part is to know when to take your profits.

[elZorro]

Hope you do, the trickiest part is to know when to take your profits.

Hi Skol, yes, that is so true. I'm too optimistic when it comes to my chosen shares. This time I'm selling some, once I have enough profit to buy something useful.

Another Reuters article (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/08/businesspro-us-markets-precious-idUSTRE73786N20110408?pageNumber=1) that I have to agree with, gold should get to $1500 soon, mentions why it's gone up, etc.

[JBmurc]

I made a mistake EZ, the BT NR fund is up 43% (in NZD) for the year, I forgot about the dividend, not bad, and diversified. And best of all I don't do anything.

Too bad if Congress solve the problem what then for gold and silver?

This would hardly make me run out to buy gold or silver, it's hard to find anything about it on CNN's home page, not even a major headline.

yeah and hasn't Mr Obama team been doing so well at that LOL I guess if you listen to the controlled media you may think it's an easy fix truth is far from it.

[Skol]

yeah and hasn't Mr Obama team been doing so well at that LOL I guess if you listen to the controlled media you may think it's an easy fix truth is far from it.

What's the 'uncontrolled' media?

[JBmurc]

Media like say Ajezzera that is outside the concentration of media power giants -

On 4 March 2011, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Al Jazeera provided more informative news coverage than the opinion driven coverage of American mass media. Most American media outlets declined comment. Michael Clemente of Fox News called the comments "curious," while not directly refuting them.

Prior to September 11, 2001 the United States government had praised Al Jazeera for its role as an independent media outlet in the Middle East. US officials have since claimed an anti-American bias to Al Jazeera's news coverage.[60][117]

The station first gained widespread attention in the West following the September 11, 2001 attacks, when it broadcast videos in which Osama bin Laden and Sulaiman Abu Ghaith defended and justified the attacks. This led to significant controversy and accusations by the United States government that Al Jazeera was engaging in propaganda on behalf of terrorists. Al Jazeera countered that it was merely making information available without comment, and several western television channels later followed suit in broadcasting portions of the tapes. Military analyst and defense consultant James F. Dunnigan assigns Al Jazeera a primary role in the rise of religious hatred and terrorism in the modern Muslim world.[118]

On November 13, during the US invasion of Afghanistan, 2001, a U.S. missile strike destroyed Al Jazeera's office in Kabul. There were no casualties.[57]

At an October 3, 2001 press conference, Colin Powell tried to persuade the emir of Qatar to shut down Al Jazeera

[Skol]

You watch Al Jazeera, I'll stick to the 'controlled' media. Is the NZ Herald the 'controlled' media? Because it certainly isn't headlines there.

More conspiracy theory.

[JBmurc]

You watch Al Jazeera, I'll stick to the 'controlled' media. Is the NZ Herald the 'controlled' media? Because it certainly isn't headlines there.

More conspiracy theory.

whatever makes you feel imformed I watch CNBC,BBC,Al jazeera,RT ---have you sold those worthless silver bars yet LOL

[Huang Chung]

This would hardly make me run out to buy gold or silver, it's hard to find anything about it on CNN's home page, not even a major headline.

So I guess precious metals aren't in a bubble after all.....

[denpal]

Some of you will surely be familiar with Martin Armstrong. There are many interesting reports on his website: http://armstrongeconomics.com/writings/

He says that gold has little to do with inflation and everything to do with distrust of government and government default.

The $AUD he sees as having great strength going forward into 2016, it seems to be his favourite currency.

Well worth spending some time reading his views IMO. He does have a good record with his turn dates in various markets.

[Skol]

whatever makes you feel imformed I watch CNBC,BBC,Al jazeera,RT ---have you sold those worthless silver bars yet LOL

Still got the silver bars. Might hang on to them a little while longer, a real speculative mania, great to watch too.

BT NR fund must be up more than 43% in the last year now, RIO & BHP up heaps today for some reason.

PS. Better than NAV.

[elZorro]

Still got the silver bars. Might hang on to them a little while longer, a real speculative mania, great to watch too.

BT NR fund must be up more than 43% in the last year now, RIO & BHP up heaps today for some reason.

PS. Better than NAV.

I guess that holding your silver is like a horse race, more fun if you have a bet on Skol. But does this mean that you also consider silver will keep going for a bit longer?

[Skol]

I guess that holding your silver is like a horse race, more fun if you have a bet on Skol. But does this mean that you also consider silver will keep going for a bit longer?

Probably EZ, the one thing I've learned is that booms and busts go on a lot longer than you think.

[JBmurc]

Still got the silver bars. Might hang on to them a little while longer, a real speculative mania, great to watch too.

BT NR fund must be up more than 43% in the last year now, RIO & BHP up heaps today for some reason.

PS. Better than NAV.

yes my NAV investment hasn't done much in the last qtr but more confindent for better results in the next Qtr overall still up near 80% from first buy-
--good to here your holding onto the silver bars if only your'd brought more years ago your be up 125% yr on yr

-speculative mania far from it though it does look like Silver has moved into the 2nd phase

by the way America’s statutory debt limit of $14.3 trillion will be reached sometime in early May what you reckon will happen SKOL --lift it to 20 trillion ?

[elZorro]

Here's a UK report chaired by Paddy Ashdown (http://www.dfid.gov.uk/Documents/publications1/HERR.pdf), a House of Lords member. It's all about how the UK can help more with natural disasters around the world, and contains an interesting map of the hotspots. (NZ looks to be in the clear?)..but the press have taken a different view of it, and end-of-world bunker-type blogs all over the place have reported this snippet: Skol, the goldbugs are all set for this..



A British government report says major disasters like the Japanese earthquake and tsunami or Pakistan's floods are likely to become more frequent and global governments must prepare for an uncertain future.
The author Paddy Ashdown, a House of Lords member and ex-United Nations high representative to Bosnia and Herzegovina, said rich nations must help poorer countries to build up their defences against disasters. The report was issued on Monday by the international development ministry. Ashdown said a lack of prior support for Haiti and Pakistan had worsened the impact of recent events there.
He said scientists believe that recent natural disasters were not an aberration, but "the beginnings of a new kind of future in which mega-disasters are going to be more frequent."

© 2011 AP (http://news.theage.com.au/action/displayCopyrightNotice?sourceOrganisation=AP)

I had a quick look on google, and it appears unlikely that recent ice melt has had any major effect on earthquake frequency, as the earth's core is much heavier and thicker than the oceans. The earth is still rebounding from the major retreat of much wider glaciation. Makes you wonder though.

[elZorro]

Hi Skol, being a Goldbug is fairly easy at the moment. There is the terrible state of the US$ (see below) and prices on many goods going up (inflation), while there are still some nasty-looking civil wars going on that threaten oil supplies.

The US dollar is being allowed to slide by the FED. Over the last 12 months it has dropped 16% in value against its peak, and doesn't look like levelling off yet. Who cares about saving a few billion in the US budget, when so far the real value of trillions of debt has been reduced by an average of perhaps 10%? However, if the value of the US$ was to improve, that debt would reappear wouldn't it?

As many Americans twiddle their thumbs with no manufacturing work around, and wonder why it all had to go to Asian lower-wage economies, we have to think hard about that here in NZ too.

The gold price is highly correlated with the per-capita income in emerging Asian economies, (http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/fear_love_trade_041420114) which is (surprise, surprise) increasing. This must be a paid-for report, cannot dig the source up anywhere..

Gold to the moon. Latest update to the "Gold buys the Dow" chart (http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dow-au.htm), it's right on target.

[elZorro]

Here is another moment in history, gold passes US$1500 per ounce.

The US$ slide resumes, more trouble with the budgets. (http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=689777836679710) I can't help thinking that trimming back on everything is the wrong way to go for the USA. They should focus their entire spare resources on cheaper (zero carbon) energy sources. They got rich on cheap energy, and they could be leaders in that again.

[Skol]

With a few exceptions gold and silver shares languish. Why is that?
Gold and silver almost exponential but the shares can't get off the grid, maybe they know something you don't.

[elZorro]

With a few exceptions gold and silver shares languish. Why is that?
Gold and silver almost exponential but the shares can't get off the grid, maybe they know something you don't.

Skol, fair point. Although gold moving from 1320 to 1500 is only a 13% increase, mining shares should be leveraged to that. Their costs have often gone up, and some (like the previous market darling OGC) have taken the opportunity to get their shareholders to fund expansion. It's not just the share price you need to look at, to be fair, but the EV or Mcap. Maybe those have responded better.

US$Gold is not exponential, it's following it's 10-year trendline. Looking to some smaller shares for better responses at the mo. Cheers.

[JBmurc]

Skol, fair point. Although gold moving from 1320 to 1500 is only a 13% increase, mining shares should be leveraged to that. Their costs have often gone up, and some (like the previous market darling OGC) have taken the opportunity to get their shareholders to fund expansion. It's not just the share price you need to look at, to be fair, but the EV or Mcap. Maybe those have responded better.

US$Gold is not exponential, it's following it's 10-year trendline. Looking to some smaller shares for better responses at the mo. Cheers.

And the fact that most ASX gold/silver producers sell gold in AUD --current AUD gold price=$1410 actually a good few dollars of it high of last year
the USD is falling

But I do believe even at 1400oz AUD ASX goldies are well undervalued
NAV for one producers enough gold to gross cashflow their entire market value within 210 days

[upside_umop]

NAV should be raking it in...but still thin margins.

Gross cashflow? Do you mean revenue? I don't think most care about gross cashflow...they're interested in actual cashflow.

Golds going strong, but the AUD is also going strong.

[JBmurc]

NAV should be raking it in...but still thin margins.

Gross cashflow? Do you mean revenue? I don't think most care about gross cashflow...they're interested in actual cashflow.

Golds going strong, but the AUD is also going strong.

Yeah I know Nett cashflow/EBIT is best measure(only making point on massive gross cashflow) NAV should at a min be making $400aud nett profit per 1oz of gold produced,off course they have many out going with exploration ,Rare earth IPO,leonora DFS

Going forward NAV will be reducing costs per oz as they move into the higher grade ore +leonora extra production could well see NAV 150koz production $750-$850oz

[JBmurc]

An interview with Timothy Geithner in today's Herald doesn't indicate any concern about US debt, or the dollar.
$175b in TARP payments to the Govt by the end of the year and when asked about the dollar said:
"When fear was most acute, people wanted to be in Treasuries and hold dollars. Even today, when you have moments of darkness, people want dollars."

yeah right LOL---Skol post back in 09--

[Skol]

Hardly a moment of darkness right now, in fact I don't even know what the the drama is. A minor skirmish in Libya, a leak in a reactor in Japan? Big deal, those rushing out to buy gold have been listening to Glenn Beck, who's rumored to own heaps of the stuff, pushing his own barrow.

In the event of a real war or colossal financial meltdown, which only exists in the minds of goldbugs, then you'd see punters buy USD.
The DJIA has exactly matched gold for the last 6 months, so someone's buying USD.

Despite what goldbugs say, Bernanke isn't dumb, in fact he's smarter than 99.9% recurring of goldbugs and I'd say there's a black swan flapping its way over the horizon.

[JBmurc]

-Yeah Bernanke is so smart he though giving money to people to buy over priced property with no deposits, no job+ no income- would be good for the US economy
yeah he's real clued up guy ..LOL

-jim sinclair interview-
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hera/apr202011.html

[Skol]

The NZ gummint been doing the same thing, saving South Canterbury Finance, should've let it go under, too many extravagant punters in the South Island with too much debt, taking too many chances.
They saved a few of the finance companies too, same thing Bernanke did.

[elZorro]

So how about that US$gold price Skol? A $40 increase in part of one day, not a small move.

Article about the US$, still in freefall. (http://www.ob-research.com/US_Reckless_Money-Printing_Could_put_the_World_Back_Into_Crisis)

[stevo1]

I've been having a debate on another thread with JBMurc on gold.
Personally I think it's going to be a fizzer and we've seen the highs for the next few years.
I reckon the stockmarkets could do well for a while and when the gold bugs, most of whom are new at the game realise what they're missing out on will jump ship and cash in their yellow metal.

Opportunity cost, insurance and safekeeping make it a risky investment and in the event of a real crisis you probably couldn't sell it, divide it into smaller pieces or eat it.

Warren Buffet agrees with me and reckons it's a waste of time. The rationale for gold bugs bullishness is the coming implosion of the $US they say.

The USA virtually paid for World War 2, Berlin Airlift and the Cold War for another 50 years all done with debt, like the stimulus.

The early '80's saw a revival of gold for a short period with investment experts imploring punters to buy gold to avoid the coming meltdown but it ended in tears.

Skol this is how you started this thread some 17 months ago.How has your pragmatic approach worked in reality?
Do you still hold the same opinion in the face of $US collapsing and the subsequent rise in gold and silver?
Have you taken account of the changed world order?or do you continue to bury your head in the sand to avoid the blinding obvious events of the last 17 mths?

[Skol]

Skol this is how you started this thread some 17 months ago.How has your pragmatic approach worked in reality?
Do you still hold the same opinion in the face of $US collapsing and the subsequent rise in gold and silver?
Have you taken account of the changed world order?or do you continue to bury your head in the sand to avoid the blinding obvious events of the last 17 mths?

You buy gold, or silver I've bought AUD, fine with me, good return. The 'new world order'.

You're in the 'it's different this time' herd. The golden age will soon end.

[skid]

Yep-The price of gold is different this time ,than it was 17 months ago LOL

[Skol]

UBS and I think alike. They're picking $700 next year.

[elZorro]

UBS and I think alike. They're picking $700 next year.

Found this report for you Skol (http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=orkbnrcab&v=0019AZp80hh5E5hTq-jdM-4scwjh4EfNrraIBnU0r16rQB3Sfsn9sjeVL6paYhegzy9LSexM kcaWsMbjPoERxJDixvkV6SoWeL9LgiM2LFdSAU%3D), facts on the US manufacturing economy.

[Skol]

Here's what Warren Buffett said about gold at the lastest Berkshire Hathaway meeting:

'That view of the world was typically upbeat, with Mr. Buffett reporting that all of Berkshire's businesses, with the exception of residential housing, were continuing to recover, and repeated disparagement for the continuing enthusiasm for gold.

"There is something peculiar about an asset that only really goes up when the world really goes to hell", said Mr. Munger.'

[JackSprat]

Found this report for you Skol (http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=orkbnrcab&v=0019AZp80hh5E5hTq-jdM-4scwjh4EfNrraIBnU0r16rQB3Sfsn9sjeVL6paYhegzy9LSexM kcaWsMbjPoERxJDixvkV6SoWeL9LgiM2LFdSAU%3D), facts on the US manufacturing economy.

Unusual comment that appealed for some reason: " I am looking to put up some stink bids (extremely low market bids) in hopes they get filled."

[COLIN]

Price of gold has gone down, on the news.

[elZorro]

Price of gold has gone down, on the news.

Hi Colin, yes, it's still dropping, although did try to rally. But as oil is still climbing, I have not lost faith in the yellow metal. The US$ gold-oil ratio averages out at about 16 to 18, (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-23/gold-cheap-versus-oil-signals-bullion-to-rally-chart-of-the-day.html) so any oil increase will bring gold with it eventually. Oil sales income is often converted into gold, as a hedge against inflation. So until a replacement energy source for oil is found, and while output drops, gold bulls are fairly safe.

[Skol]

I think the gold-oil ratio is some kind of random thing someone's thought up, someone's 'good idea'. What happened to the gold-oil ratio in 2008 when oil crashed from $147 to $32?
Did gold drop to $512? No. In August 2008, the month of the crash, its lowest was $790 a gold-oil ratio of 24.6.

Are gold bulls safe? Don't think so. Reported in the WSJ that George Soros has pushed the sell button which may have precipitated the latest selling. One poster says it's Soros's fault he's losing money.

The goldbugs say it's all the 'manipulators' fault that gold and silver are declining or crashing depending on how it pans out, not their fault. I wouldn't miss this for anything.

ETF SLV down 6% overnite, 21% in the last 5 days.

[JBmurc]

According to the data, the central bank of Mexico bought 93.3 tons of bullion over the two-month period, vastly increasing its total reserves from just 6.9 tons in January.

"Prior to this, they held very little metal, so it is a decent size change," Mr. Spall said. "People are going to view this as bullish, and will now be closely watching other countries in the region, and elsewhere, for further changes."

May IMF data also show continued buying by Russia, of 18.8 tons, and Thailand, of 9.3 tons.

The official sector was a net seller for around two decades before becoming a considerable buyer last year, according to the World Gold Council.

"Mexico seems to be following the trend established by several other central banks recently and is moving toward restoring a prior balance between gold and currency reserves," said George Milling-Stanley, managing director of government affairs at the WGC.

The Bank of Mexico traditionally holds most of its reserves in U.S. dollar-denominated investments.

Since selling more than $30 billion in the exchange market to shore up the peso between October 2008 and October 2009 during the global financial crisis, the central bank has been building reserves to record levels as protection against future bouts of global financial turmoil.

The main source of reserves is oil revenue, as the bank changes dollars for state oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos. The bank also uses put options to buy up to $600 million a month from commercial banks when the peso is appreciating against the dollar.

The peso is currently trading at its strongest level against the dollar since early October 2008, closing Tuesday at 11.5620 pesos after dipping below 11.50 pesos in recent sessions.

Foreign reserves were a record $125.8 billion as of April 29.

[Skol]

I've got a few books here the Mexicans should have read before their latest purchase. I guess it's someone elses money so they don't worry too much.

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.
Tomorrows Gold.
Manias, Panics and Crashes.
Contrarian Investing.

To name a few. Hard to believe educated people would speculate at these levels but it takes all types I suppose. Even the 'experts' confound themselves with their own BS.

Do you think the dudes at Texas University that bought $1b in gold recently are feeling a little nervous?

[JBmurc]

UBS and I think alike. They're picking $700 next year.

$700 LOL that must be our 2012 bet then Skol

[Skol]

Might be, with the July silver contract 7.5% lower overnite, only a matter of time before the rot sets in.

There's nothing wrong with using those rose-tinted glasses every now and then.

[Pumice]

According to the data, the central bank of Mexico bought 93.3 tons of bullion over the two-month period, vastly increasing its total reserves from just 6.9 tons in January.

"Prior to this, they held very little metal, so it is a decent size change," Mr. Spall said. "People are going to view this as bullish, and will now be closely watching other countries in the region, and elsewhere, for further changes."

May IMF data also show continued buying by Russia, of 18.8 tons, and Thailand, of 9.3 tons......


Foreign reserves were a record $125.8 billion as of April 29.

So who is selling? and why?

[elZorro]

I think the gold-oil ratio is some kind of random thing someone's thought up, someone's 'good idea'. What happened to the gold-oil ratio in 2008 when oil crashed from $147 to $32?
Did gold drop to $512? No. In August 2008, the month of the crash, its lowest was $790 a gold-oil ratio of 24.6.

Are gold bulls safe? Don't think so. Reported in the WSJ that George Soros has pushed the sell button which may have precipitated the latest selling. One poster says it's Soros's fault he's losing money.

The goldbugs say it's all the 'manipulators' fault that gold and silver are declining or crashing depending on how it pans out, not their fault. I wouldn't miss this for anything.

ETF SLV down 6% overnite, 21% in the last 5 days.

Have a look at the gold/oil ratios for many years Skol, there is a consistent pattern and a high correlation longer term. That ratio always heads back to about 16. If you were an extremely rich oil baron being paid for oil in US$, and this currency has undeniably dropped 10% in value in just the last 4 months, wouldn't you be smart to buy a very dense, stable and compact inflation-safe item with those spare US$? After you'd bought an ocean liner, a couple of jets, a few mansions of course.

[Skol]

Maybe the dollar's about to turn around. That won't do much for the POG. If it does it'll shake the goldbugs to their very foundations because I don't know how many times I've heard over the last couple of years that the dollar's dead or it's gonna be confetti. Thousands.

I doubt it.

One trader reckons buy the dollar, bin Laden's demise shows that the USA is still the most powerful and capable military, and the country with the most powerful military always has the reserve currency.

The FT says this is the time to buy the dollar.

[JBmurc]

the Dollar yeah that's going do well LOL most the guys I follow and a majority that I don't also are very negative towards the USD's future while the US Government give tax breaks to the rich and bailout or pay-off anyone that's mates with the people in power to the detriment of the not so free USA public that will have the burden of the ever increasing debt for generations to come..

[elZorro]

There will still be a spare labour pool in USA by the end of 2012 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/06/us-usa-fed-idUSTRE74560520110506), if they add 300,000 jobs every month from now on. That's staggering.

With monetary policy there still on "easy", many expect gold's small drop so far to be a correction, rather than a change in the bullish long-term trend. At least the percentage drop was nowhere near as marked as for silver, which was to be expected. Siver had raced up in the last few weeks, still at a good gain for any medium-term investor. Certainly the US$ has picked up, but it was a very fast rise, still at a low level(74) compared to the last 6 months average, and things can change again, fast. We still see higher highs in gold, there on the chart.

[Skol]

Not what Incredible Charts says, see what I posted on the silver thread.

Is this the 'bull trap'?

[Hoop]

Bad news .....The gold bubble is now the same size as the 1929 Wall St Stockmarket bubble.
Good news... Gold has to reach about us$7000+ to be the same size as the 1980 gold bubble.

Hmmm....Hands up anyone who still doesn't know how the 2008 GFC happened and who was to blame.

Hoops Quote..Those who invest in bubbles should wear earmuffs as the pop is deafening

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/GoldSilverBubbleschart-1.png

[elZorro]

Hello Hoop, thanks for the chart. So gold isn't in 'bad' bubble territory yet? I wouldn't mind the gain from 492% to 2,276% or somewhere close. I don't feel threatened by the gold price yet, because many miners aren't making much profit anyway. Rising energy prices kill some of the gains. But they are looking at M&A to get to a more organised situation for their asset base. And until I see this chart changing, I'm going to keep looking at miners. Over 12 months the US$ has lost up to 17.5% of its value.

[trackers]

FYI:Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange's 1 Kilo Gold Contract To End Comex Gold Futures Trading (And "Bang The Close") Monopoly

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hong-kong-mercantile-exchanges-1-kilo-gold-contract-end-comex-gold-futures-trading-and-bang-


Could be interesting?

[Skol]

Over 12 months the US$ has lost up to 17.5% of its value.

And the DJIA is up 19%.

OGC is up 0% on the ASX.

[elZorro]

And the DJIA is up 19%.

OGC is up 0% on the ASX.

Hi Skol, you forgot that OGC has been a 20-bagger not long ago. I think it's saving up a surprise for shareholders, we might have to beat insiders to the prize though.

[Skol]

ETF GLD is up 25% in the last year.

S&P 500 up 22%. This index does not include dividends so they're about level-pegging.

[Skol]

Hey EZ,
How about posting another one of those USD index charts so we can see the USD crashing and burning, turning to confetti.

[Skol]

Here's a portion of an article from the FT today about gold:


But there is little of substance to back up any sharp rises in future. One of the (good) reasons some investors swear off gold is that it can’t be valued using conventional metrics and it doesn’t have any industrial uses. This is because it doesn’t generate any cash flow and its primary use is for jewellery.

While it is entirely possible that the price of gold may rise still further, one thing we can be certain of is that it won’t rise forever. Patrick Connolly at AWD Chase de Vere, reminded me yesterday about the huge falls in the price of gold between January 1980 and August 1999, when prices fell by about 70 per cent.

Many investors appear to have forgotten this or have perhaps simply been dazzled by the glittering commodity. It is also worth remembering that an unwritten rule of investing is that when an asset class hits a record high is is usually a better time to sell than to buy.

At some point the ‘perfect storm’ for gold will end and when that happens there is a risk that the price of gold could fall significantly. In this scenario it will be those who invested most recently who will suffer the most.

[elZorro]

Hi Skol - no charts today, but overnight gold resumed an upwards move to US$1525, along with silver, while the US$ index dropped back from a 76 peak to 75. If any more money comes off the sharemarket table, a more obvious flight to gold could occur. Certainly gold has held its price over the last few weeks, within reason.

[Skol]

Gold shares don't indicate a turnaround for gold in fact have a look at NAV. A flash in the pan I think.

[elZorro]

Skol, I guess one of those overall gold share indicators would be a good place to see that effect, if it is happening. But there are some substantial call option bets (http://club.ino.com/trading/2011/05/looking-back-on-gold/)going in, predicting gold to be at US$1600 to $1800 within a few months.

[Skol]

Can't see it myself EZ. XGD, NCM, FML, NAV, SBM, AYN, all tanking. They should be rising, theoretically, with gold up in AUD.

[asc4]

Oil is still around 100 bikes barrel and oilers r getting thrashed too, the aud is lower and the Oz market is getting thrashed,it's market sentiment at the moment that is dictating a move down.

[asc4]

Haha bucks not bikes, darn iphone

[Skol]

Heard the latest conspiracy theory from the goldbugs? I know you guys like a laugh.

Actual Scenario:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK) allegedly tries it on with maid in hotel in NY, removed from aircraft and arrested.
DSK 'DNA' reported to have been found on maid's uniform and carpet.
DSK goes to trial.

Reult: If found guilty, liable to get up to 20 years.

Goldbug Scenario:

DSK in NY on official IMF business.
DSK set up by unknown persons and falsely accused of sexual attack on maid.
DSK goes to jail after being found guilty.
DSK spills the beans on all the hanky-panky in the gold market.

Result: Goldbugs get rich.

[roniirani]

Pretty sick that people can find a possible positive out of this.

[stevo1]

Pretty sick that people can find a possible positive out of this.

Nah thats just skol you get used to him after a while (sort of)

[CAM]

European Parliament Approves Use Of Gold As Collateral

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/european-gold-confiscation-sceme-unfolds-european-parliament-approves-use-gold-collateral

[Skol]

Probably just symbolic. The Utah State Legislature approved gold as a currency the other day. Big Deal. There's nothing stopping you from buying or selling anything with gold anyway, they were joking about it on CNBC.

Ron Paul says the USA should sell all its gold reserves so I hope you guys are out before that happens.

[JBmurc]

Probably just symbolic. The Utah State Legislature approved gold as a currency the other day. Big Deal. There's nothing stopping you from buying or selling anything with gold anyway, they were joking about it on CNBC.

Ron Paul says the USA should sell all its gold reserves so I hope you guys are out before that happens.

yeah I guess if people want to buy mostly tungsten filled bars

[elZorro]

Part of that post from Cam included a PDF document from the World Gold Council (http://www.gold.org/media/publications/)(not Skol's favourite outfit). It's the latest one, 25th May, and answers tricky questions we always see here, posted by the non-believers.. like "Gold has no yield"

China has just this quarter surpassed India as the world's biggest purchaser of gold, as fears of inflation over there increase.

[Skol]

yeah I guess if people want to buy mostly tungsten filled bars

Is this another conspiracy theory? How about expanding on it.

[CAM]

google.... tungsten filled gold bars.... heaps of stuff

try..... http://www.shadowtraders.com/futuresblog/?p=2337 ...plenty of conspiracy to keep you busy :)

[JBmurc]

Is this another conspiracy theory? How about expanding on it.

The counterfeit story

This October, bankers in Hong Kong were in for a rude shock when they discovered some gold bars from the US to be actually gold plated tungsten i.e., fake gold bars. Acting fast, the Chinese officials found the perpetrators within hours. It seems that fake Tungsten blanks, between 1.3 and 1.5 million 400 oz, were manufactured in the US about fifteen years ago during the Clinton administration. Said to have been done by a very sophisticated refiner, 640,000 of these tungsten planks were gold plated and shifted to Fort Knox. The remaining also gold plated, but sold into the international market. (Fort Knox , as you may be aware, is the United States Bullion Depository, where the official gold reserves of the federal government are stored. This depository of about 4,603 tons (4 176 metric tonness) is the second highest gold depository in the US after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's underground vault in Manhattan (5,000 metric tonness of gold). Whoever pulled this one on the gold bars had connections inside the government, big banks and also a top-of-the-line fabrication facility. For, counterfeit is not something new for the US government, it did this is 1964 when zinc dimes clad in silver were introduced. That's why the pre 1964 coins are valued more. Elsewhere, early this year, another counterfeit story made rounds as some of the gold bars in the vaults of the National bank of Ethiopia were found to be gold plated steel. It made news when the shipment of gold was returned by South Africa. It only could have been the work of a genius as fake gold bars made of steel are among the easiest to detect as they are lighter. Among gold coins, 22k Gold coins such as Krugerrand, are less likely to be counterfeited because the density of 22k gold minted from gold alloy that is 91.67 percent pure, is far apart from that of tungsten. Tungsten has the same density (19.25g/cm3) as gold, so a fake bar is indistinguishable by weighing it. In comparison the density of pure 24k gold is within 0.26% of tungsten.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ron paul asks Q to bernake-http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylBvC9QLCL4

[STRAT]

Is this another conspiracy theory? How about expanding on it.Credit due for a decent attempt I reckon. I always just assumed the Vaults were more or less empty :D

[JBmurc]

Credit due for a decent attempt I reckon. I always just assumed the Vaults were more or less empty :D

your'd think if they did actually have the gold they'd be selling it bernake doesn't believe in Gold or the high prices, the USA debt ceiling has been reached 14.3trillion(US is going backwards round a trillion in the hole per year by 2016=est 20trillion)
Instead they'll talk down Gold's value as a real asset , they should give to their creditors??

[Skol]

They should sell it, but make sure you've got rid of that 2000 oz before that happens JB.

Reported today that the US Govt is under increasing pressure to sell, that should crash the POG well and truly.

[JBmurc]

They should sell it, but make sure you've got rid of that 2000 oz before that happens JB.

Reported today that the US Govt is under increasing pressure to sell, that should crash the POG well and truly.

well as I sold my Gold producer NAV position 18.5c(most of my shares left are in Iron ore,Oil&gas,silver,base metals) and as I hold Silver bullion which the US sold out of long ago now they have to import to meet demand and that doesn't include the huge amount of paper silver created( yes I know silver will if be affected Gold pulls back but not as much as you would think IMHO)
I say bring it on the USA should be forced too IMHO I'm sure many Nations will soak it up cheap to get rid of their USD's piles as would many smart investors --
thats if the USA does have all the Gold they say they do(unlikely).......

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=Skol;347161]Probably just symbolic. The Utah State Legislature approved gold as a currency the other day. Big Deal. There's nothing stopping you from buying or selling anything with gold anyway, they were joking about it on CNBC.

the joke is on the USD dollar when States start wanting to move away from it ....

Utah just became the first US state to recognize gold as legal tender. Its Legal Tender Act of 2011 allows U.S. minted gold and silver coins to be recognized as legal tender in the value that reflects the market price for gold and silver.

Currently, the one-dollar US American Eagle coins would be worth $38 each, using an example provided by the NYTimes.

People in Utah are not compelled to accept gold and silver coins at market value, but they’re now able to, according to the law.

“If the federal government isn’t going to do it, then we here in Utah ought to be able to establish a monetary system that would survive a crash if and when that happens,” Lowell Nelson, interim coordinator for the Campaign for Liberty in Utah, told NYTimes.

Craig Franco, a coin dealer south of Salt Lake City, said he’s preparing to create a Visa credit card based on gold depositories that would allow people to more conveniently use gold as tender.

Utah isn’t the only place to distrust the US dollar and push for precious metals as legal tender.

Minnesota introduced (but not passed) a bill to “designate gold and silver coin as official ‘legal tender’ in payment of debts under certain circumstances.”

The bill said “the currency emitted by the Federal Reserve System [i.e. the US dollar] has created and threatens to create increasing instability in the governmental finances and private economy of the state of Minnesota.”

North Carolina introduced (but not passed) a bill that would have the state issue its own legal tender backed by the gold and silver in the state’s treasury.

“I think we're in the process of inflating a dollar bubble that could be very devastating,” said the legislator who introduced the bill, reported the News & Observer.

South Carolina introduced (but not passed) a bill that would replace the US dollar with gold and silver in as legal tender in the state.

"The Germans felt their system wouldn't collapse, but it took a wheelbarrow of money to buy a loaf of bread in the 1930s. The Soviet Union didn't think their system would collapse, but it did. Ours is capable of collapsing also,” said the legislator who introduced the bill, reported CBS.

Idaho introduced (but not passed) a bill that would allow people require only gold or silver as payment.

Georgia introduced (but not passed) a bill that would have the state government only accept US minted gold and silver coins for payment (i.e. tax payments).

Meanwhile, the world is also slowly pushing to diminish the role of the US dollar.

China and Russia have already formed an agreement to use their respective currencies for bilateral trade. Previously, these countries used the US dollar for bilateral trade.

Russia, in fact, was already pushing for the denomination of its energy exports in the Russian ruble back in 2006.

Countries with big foreign exchange reserves – like China and Arab oil producers – are also frantically trying to prop up the euro currency as a dollar-alternative for their investments. Besides the euro, they’ve diversified to assets denominated in other major currencies like the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar.

[Skol]

It's all symbolic, doesn't mean a damned thing. You've always been able to buy anthing anywhere with gold if you negotiate.

Let me know when you hear about people wandering into their local or paying for their insurance with gold or silver. LOL

Think I'll ring up the bank today and order a few thousand USD for my next vacation.

[JBmurc]

It's all symbolic, doesn't mean a damned thing. You've always been able to buy anthing anywhere with gold if you negotiate.

Let me know when you hear about people wandering into their local or paying for their insurance with gold or silver. LOL

Think I'll ring up the bank today and order a few thousand USD for my next vacation.


LOL Gold is Insurance

[drillfix]

Hows that Ridgeback of yours doing JB, what is his/her name?

They dont live as long as gold but they sure are just as precious :)

[upside_umop]

LOL Gold is Insurance


In law and economics, insurance is a form of risk management primarily used to hedge against the risk of a contingent, uncertain loss. Insurance is defined as the equitable transfer of the risk of a loss, from one entity to another, in exchange for payment. An insurer is a company selling the insurance; an insured, or policyholder, is the person or entity buying the insurance policy. The insurance rate is a factor used to determine the amount to be charged for a certain amount of insurance coverage, called the premium. Risk management, the practice of appraising and controlling risk, has evolved as a discrete field of study and practice.


Not sure how I see gold fitting into that definition.

I don't see people after the earthquake pulling out their ounce of gold they have stacked away and asking for a new house to be built lol.

[JBmurc]

Hows that Ridgeback of yours doing JB, what is his/her name?

They dont live as long as gold but they sure are just as precious :)

Mia is her name shes sleeping up a storm on her huge bean bag bed--- spoiled rotten

[JBmurc]

Not sure how I see gold fitting into that definition.

I don't see people after the earthquake pulling out their ounce of gold they have stacked away and asking for a new house to be built lol.

No more so against financial collapse i.e Zimbabwe hyper inflation or Stagflation

[drillfix]

Mia is her name shes sleeping up a storm on her huge bean bag bed--- spoiled rotten

Haaahaaa, Excellent.

Do you know JB, there is a saying with Ridgebacks as with some other breeds too, which is, A Ridge will usually choose their master and they will make you be a better master and remind you of your duties to them one way or another :)

My Ridge passed away quite a few years ago and his African blood line name was Outspanner Dakhan and to us he is simply named Ben.

I still miss him dearly and had thought about getting another Ridge, but it is very tricky here on the Gold Coast to have and maintain pets due to all the council BS rules they have.

Anyway, no doubt you have a few Ridge stories to go around, as I know I do that will live on forever :P

[elZorro]

Hey EZ,
How about posting another one of those USD index charts so we can see the USD crashing and burning, turning to confetti.

OK Skol, I had to wait 16 days or so, but the dollar is obliging well.

[Skol]

You didn't answer my question on the silver thread about why they're taking your confetti trash in exchange for silver.

I bought some USD the other day, has to be a good deal. Have accounts in NZD, AUD and GBP, but paid in NZD.

[elZorro]

You didn't answer my question on the silver thread about why they're taking your confetti trash in exchange for silver.

I bought some USD the other day, has to be a good deal. Have accounts in NZD, AUD and GBP, but paid in NZD.

Hi Skol, I didn't think you wanted an answer, because I will have to wait for a decent amount of time to find out if I was right or wrong. In the very short term I was wrong, but I always think that if a price can drop fast, it can go up just as fast.

I just watched this presentation from The Sydney Mining Club (Trevor Sykes, October 2010) (http://www.sydneyminingclub.org/presentations/2010/november/index.htm)about how the GFC happened (Bill Clinton's administration figured negatively), why interest rates in the US are so low (because it will cost the FED dearly to increase interest rates, and they are near broke), and how the GFC could easily happen again. The speaker assumed US$gold and the AUD will keep rising in the meantime, while the US$ will drop. So he did a fairly good job of his predictions back then.

[JBmurc]

You didn't answer my question on the silver thread about why they're taking your confetti trash in exchange for silver.

I bought some USD the other day, has to be a good deal. Have accounts in NZD, AUD and GBP, but paid in NZD.

?? I never said paper money is confetti ?? as usually skol your trying to make out that I walk round buy items with silver bullion etc
Fiat currency USD reserve won't be confetti any day soon but it's buying power per dollar will follow it's long term trend which is down against real assets---------the current world reserve system of Fiat inflation of dollars to spur growth is failing -With all the trillion's of dollars pumped into USA yet they can't grow any real numbers of jobs+The US debt ceiling is going be hit where are they going to get the money to cover that debt in their low rate bonds- Japan Europe got their own problems they be if anything nett sellers China wants to diverse away from their already massive USD debt bond holdings last time some of the huge US Debt come due the FED had to buy most of it so going forward the FED will be the nett buyer of US Debt?? whilethe rest of the world moves away from the failed dollar.... this decade we will know if 1# they try and print an inflate their way out of the debt(like many have tried in the past) or 2# the reduce the massive government/defence spending --currently the US goes in the hole over One trillion per year deeper......

How about teling us how the US will dig themselves out of the debt hole ther,ve been digging for 30yrs Skol?

[Skol]

Debt, debt, debt, yadda ,yadda, yadda.

Read this from The Economist, especially the last para., hardly a mention of debt. The Economist is one place where you can read some genuine common sense, bearing mind of course that they picked the property bubble years before everyone else.

The wacky world of gold. (and silver)

www.economist.com/node/18774624

[Pumice]

[QUOTE=JBmurc;347626How about teling us how the US will dig themselves out of the debt hole ther,ve been digging for 30yrs Skol?[/QUOTE]

Stamp duty on Gold and Silver transactions......?

[elZorro]

Debt, debt, debt, yadda ,yadda, yadda.

Read this from The Economist, especially the last para., hardly a mention of debt. The Economist is one place where you can read some genuine common sense, bearing mind of course that they picked the property bubble years before everyone else.

www.economist.com/node/18774624

Good article, many of the points we've made on the goldbug side are in there Skol. And the gold mining index is strongly correlated with the gold price, even if it doesn't keep pace. Hidden in the index are many strong performers of 10x, 20x, and many duds. But the gold price is just that, no leeway for an investor to beat the average.

Behind all this, America doesn't have massive oil reserves any more. That easy money is gone, and they haven't found a way of replacing that income yet. They'd better get going on it.

[Skol]

For the last 5 years the ^HUI, the gold bug index is up 60%.

Gold is up 140%.

If gold was to match the ^HUI it should be around $1000.

[elZorro]

For the last 5 years the ^HUI, the gold bug index is up 60%.

Gold is up 140%.

If gold was to match the ^HUI it should be around $1000.

Fine, but who says these two indexes or indicators have to move exactly hand-in-hand? This difference could partly be explained by the cost of fuel, the cost of exploration, and the time lag to get a new mine operational. It takes a few years. Even moving the overburden from existing mines takes a while. In some cases the old tailings have to be moved first, as the ore under it is now feasible to mine. But it's harder to make a dollar, even with the new gold price. Those that fail, pull down the HUI.

In a way you're right Skol, as gold is past the long-term medium trend line for the Dow/gold ratio. But in two other cases this trend carried on until it hit the bottom trend line, and when gold really went haywire in 1980, it was obviously too far past the lower trendline. So I'm not worried about a bubble until the ratio is near the lower trendline on this chart, and thanks to you I check it often. Cheers.

[BIRMANBOY]

elZorro, if you have a moment could you explain in newbie terms what your Dow/gold ratio graph indicates or point out significance? Thanks.

[Skol]

EZ,
It's not looking too good, because all that chart proves is that gold goes up and down. The DJIA is a widely used and very liquid index of 30 stocks, whereas gold is just one metal.

I put gold rises and falls down to new generations of punters buying the goldbug theme and rehashing the same ideas, inflation, debt, instability, war. It's all been done before, history repeating itself.

[elZorro]

elZorro, if you have a moment could you explain in newbie terms what your Dow/gold ratio graph indicates or point out significance? Thanks.

Hi Birmanboy, this is pure goldbug stuff, good fun when arguing one side of the gold story. But it's also a scary chart. Sometimes an ounce of gold will buy the value of the Dow Jones Index. This means gold is well overpriced, but also that shares are just terrible at the same time. This is when the flight to gold hits its peak, as it did in 1980. As gold and shares sharply corrected in opposite directions soon afterwards, many holders of gold lost their shirts. So this chart is saying that there is a steady trend to safety at the moment, out of shares and into gold (and silver). It's not overblown, but it could correct at the trendline area, if there is any truth in TA charts (ask Phaedrus).

As Skol points out, this chart implies that a cycle occurs, and if history repeats, this chart will correct near or below the trendline. This still leaves a lot of room for gold to go up, and shares to go down. The Dow/gold ratio chart has always stayed on course once it started heading down, for the last 100 years.

[Skol]

If the Dow rises suddenly, then it's more than likely the ratio will rise as punters exit gold to get on board stocks.

One commentator reckons that in 18 months time the Dow will 20,000 and if that happens then the ratio will increase substantially. Say gold $1000, Dow 20,000 the the ratio will be 20.

[BIRMANBOY]

Hi elZorro, thanks for that. So if I understand that correctly the theory is that the gold price should keep moving up untill it approaches the purple line on the graph. This would give it another 6 plus years of growth approximately if you looked at the length of the cycles. That seems to imply a much higher gold price is on the horizon and it seems astronomically high now. I'm not really a "goldbug" but have spent a lifetime in the Jewellery industry and that surely is being affected by the high metal prices. Not sure what the actual annual usage of gold is per interest sector but jewellers at the coal face are using more of the less expensive precious metals like palladium, silver etc as people are balking at the high gold price. As a conservative new investor I would be nervous about gold but I suppose as a consequence silver and the like will be be more desirable and consequently subject to more demand globally. Interesting stuff. Thanks.
Hi Birmanboy, this is pure goldbug stuff, good fun when arguing one side of the gold story. But it's also a scary chart. Sometimes an ounce of gold will buy the value of the Dow Jones Index. This means gold is well overpriced, but also that shares are just terrible at the same time. This is when the flight to gold hits its peak, as it did in 1980. As gold and shares sharply corrected in opposite directions soon afterwards, many holders of gold lost their shirts. So this chart is saying that there is a steady trend to safety at the moment, out of shares and into gold (and silver). It's not overblown, but it could correct at the trendline area, if there is any truth in TA charts (ask Phaedrus).

As Skol points out, this chart implies that a cycle occurs, and if history repeats, this chart will correct near or below the trendline. This still leaves a lot of room for gold to go up, and shares to go down. The Dow/gold ratio chart has always stayed on course once it started heading down, for the last 100 years.

[elZorro]

You're welcome, another interesting chart is the gold-oil ratio. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-23/gold-cheap-versus-oil-signals-bullion-to-rally-chart-of-the-day.html) That has been very stable lately, implying that oil and gold will go up together, if that's the way they are moving.

Good to see a jeweller on the thread, as some posters reckon that gold is completely wasted, has no industrial uses etc. Great to hear the views of someone who actually uses gold and silver to make a living. Maybe you should wait for this gold trend to end, and buy some gold in bulk for jewellry? Skol thinks you won't have long to wait, many of us think a few years yet.

[Skol]

This outfit reckons that EUR/USD will be $1.22 at the end of 2011.

If true, the POG and silver will suffer accordingly. Exchange rates are 99.1% accurate supposedly. They forecast the gold price too. I've entered a few of their forecasts in my diary to test their accuracy.

www.forecasts.org/euro.htm

[CAM]

The latest conspiracy..........

A new report prepared for Prime Minister Putin by the Federal Security Service (FSB) says that former International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn was charged and jailed in the US for sex crimes on May 14th after his discovery that all of the gold held in the United States Bullion Depository located at Fort Knox was ‘missing and/or unaccounted’ for.

According to this FSB secret report, Strauss-Kahn had become “increasingly concerned” earlier this month after the United States began “stalling” its pledged delivery to the IMF of 191.3 tons of gold agreed to under the Second Amendment of the Articles of Agreement signed by the Executive Board in April 1978 that were to be sold to fund what are called Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) as an alternative to what are called reserve currencies.

This FSB report further states that upon Strauss-Kahn raising his concerns with American government officials close to President Obama he was ‘contacted’ by ‘rogue elements’ within the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) who provided him ‘firm evidence’ that all of the gold reported to be held by the US ‘was gone’.

Upon Strauss-Kahn receiving the CIA evidence, this report continues, he made immediate arrangements to leave the US for Paris, but when contacted by agents working for France’s General Directorate for External Security (DGSE) that American authorities were seeking his capture he fled to New York City’s JFK airport following these agents directive not to take his cell-phone because US police could track his exact location.



Once Strauss-Kahn was safely boarded on an Air France flight to Paris, however, this FSB report says he made a ‘fatal mistake’ by calling the hotel from a phone on the plane and asking them to forwarded the cell-phone he had been told to leave behind to his French residence, after which US agents were able to track and apprehend him.

Within the past fortnight, this report continues, Strauss-Kahn reached out to his close friend and top Egyptian banker Mahmoud Abdel Salam Omar to retrieve from the US the evidence given to him by the CIA. Omar, however, and exactly like Strauss-Kahn before him, was charged yesterday by the US with a sex crime against a luxury hotel maid, a charge the FSB labels as ‘beyond belief’ due to Omar being 74-years-old and a devout Muslim.

In an astounding move puzzling many in Moscow, Putin after reading this secret FSB report today ordered posted to the Kremlin’s official website a defense of Strauss-Khan becoming the first world leader to state that the former IMF chief was a victim of a US conspiracy. Putin further stated, “It’s hard for me to evaluate the hidden political motives but I cannot believe that it looks the way it was initially introduced. It doesn’t sit right in my head.”

Interesting to note about all of these events is that one of the United States top Congressman, and 2012 Presidential candidate, Ron Paul [photo bottom left] has long stated his belief that the US government has lied about its gold reserves held at Fort Knox. So concerned had Congressman Paul become about the US government and the Federal Reserve hiding the truth about American gold reserves he put forward a bill in late 2010 to force an audit of them, but which was subsequently defeated by Obama regime forces.

When directly asked by reporters if he believed there was no gold in Fort Knox or the Federal Reserve, Congressman Paul gave the incredible reply, “I think it is a possibility.”

Also interesting to note is that barely 3 days after the arrest of Strauss-Kahn, Congressman Paul made a new call for the US to sell its gold reserves by stating, “Given the high price it is now, and the tremendous debt problem we now have, by all means, sell at the peak.”

Bizarre reports emanating from the US for years, however, suggest there is no gold to sell, and as we can read as posted in 2009 on the ViewZone.Com news site:

“In October of 2009 the Chinese received a shipment of gold bars. Gold is regularly exchanges between countries to pay debts and to settle the so-called balance of trade. Most gold is exchanged and stored in vaults under the supervision of a special organization based in London, the London Bullion Market Association (or LBMA). When the shipment was received, the Chinese government asked that special tests be performed to guarantee the purity and weight of the gold bars. In this test, four small holed are drilled into the gold bars and the metal is then analyzed.

Officials were shocked to learn that the bars were fake. They contained cores of tungsten with only a outer coating of real gold. What’s more, these gold bars, containing serial numbers for tracking, originated in the US and had been stored in Fort Knox for years. There were reportedly between 5,600 to 5,700 bars, weighing 400 oz. each, in the shipment!”

To the final fate of Strauss-Kahn it is not in our knowing, but new reports coming from the United States show his determination not to go down without a fight as he has hired what is described as a ‘crack team’ of former CIA spies, private investigators and media advisers to defend him.

To the practical effects on the global economy should it be proved that the US, indeed, has been lying about its gold reserves, Russia’s Central Bank yesterday ordered the interest rate raised from 0.25 to 3.5 percent and Putin ordered the export ban on wheat and grain crops lifted by July 1st in a move designed to fill the Motherlands coffers with money that normally would have flowed to the US.

The American peoples ability to know the truth of these things, and as always, has been shouted out by their propaganda media organs leaving them in danger of not being prepared for the horrific economic collapse of their nation now believed will much sooner than later.

[Skol]

Hey thanks CAM, hilarious, like the 'banksters' manipulating the price of gold and silver. LOL

You can tour the NY Federal Reserve and see thousands of gold bars stacked up.

In a recent book review in the Economist, conspiracy theories were described an 'the constant solace of the unsuccessful'.

How true.

[elZorro]

Hey thanks CAM, hilarious, like the 'banksters' manipulating the price of gold and silver. LOL

You can tour the NY Federal Reserve and see thousands of gold bars stacked up.

In a recent book review in the Economist, conspiracy theories were described an 'the constant solace of the unsuccessful'.

How true.

I guess the spelling and grammar gave it away, and I even had to rethink my doubts about the USA moon landings, apparently humans can see the left-over equipment now, on the lunar surface. Why the same rocks appeared in the background of two different landing photos is anybody's guess..

Here's a new article about the gold price (http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/business/2011/June/business_June71.xml&section=business&col=), no worries about expansion of gold retailers in Dubai, UAE etc, as oil will probably stabilise at $200 a barrel. Gold to reach $1800 or so, by the end of this year. Suppose this guy is selling gold, but even so, to expand in this climate they must be well researched. The mining companies are also expanding in 2011.

[Skol]

If oil gets to $200 a barrel, punters won't have the money to buy gold and since most of gold these days goes into jewellery, you know what that means, right. A POG plunge.

Oil won't get to $200, the world will stop, there'll be a colossal recession, maybe Great Depression #2.

If you think oil's going to $200, pay off the mortgage, quick.

[elZorro]

If oil gets to $200 a barrel, punters won't have the money to buy gold and since most of gold these days goes into jewellery, you know what that means, right. A POG plunge.

Oil won't get to $200, the world will stop, there'll be a colossal recession, maybe Great Depression #2.

If you think oil's going to $200, pay off the mortgage, quick.

Won't the oil barons be buying gold with their increase in oil returns, as the safest hedge they know? A doubling of the oil price doesn't mean double at the pumps either, because govt levies are per litre (OK, GST would go up), but as long as transport costs don't double too, the fuel might be only 50-70% more expensive. At that price, alternative fuels would come into play.

[Skol]

The biggest oil baron of them all, Saudi Prince Alwaleed, likes USD assets and says oil should be $70/80 a barrel.

If you want the link let me know.

[elZorro]

The biggest oil baron of them all, Saudi Prince Alwaleed, likes USD assets and says oil should be $70/80 a barrel.

If you want the link let me know.

I think I found it. (http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110529-701904.html) This chap is quite well off (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Waleed_bin_Talal)isn't he..

The Saudis appear keen to keep the pain threshold below the level at which very serious money will go into alternative fuel research.

[Skol]

US Debt's a problem, how about NZ debt?

Non-mortgage, high interest debt in NZ is $12,000,000,000. (HP,credit card, store cards, personal loans etc.)

Number of households = 1,450,000
--------------------------------------------------------

Result: average household high interest debt = $8,275.

NZers spend 99c of every after-tax dollar. In 2007 NZers were spending $1.10 for every after-tax dollar.

Big spenders.

[JBmurc]

US Debt's a problem, how about NZ debt?

Non-mortgage, high interest debt in NZ is $12,000,000,000. (HP,credit card, store cards, personal loans etc.)

Number of households = 1,450,000
--------------------------------------------------------

Result: average household high interest debt = $8,275.

NZers spend 99c of every after-tax dollar. In 2007 NZers were spending $1.10 for every after-tax dollar.

Big spenders.

I agree 100% we NZ,er do have very bad non-productive debt -property etc

[Skol]

An example of why suckers lose money.

On a thread I've just been reading a guy who's buying gold says the 1980 gold crash was caused by Ray Smith's Goldcorp not having enough gold to pay out the speculators.

Yeah, there's one born every minute, just waiting to get cleaned out. No wonder the Nigerian scammers have so much success.

[JBmurc]

OK Skol, I had to wait 16 days or so, but the dollar is obliging well.

Yeah the USD strong right SKOL LOL been great buy for ages ,great chart by the way Elzorro
I just can't fathom anyone that can't see the trend in the USD value....maybe if they lived in a box stiffing glue 24/7 it could make sense they would probably think 1kg of gold was less valuable than a 5 dollar bill........

just say the USD GOLD chart where flipped so the USD had been gaining value for the last few years and the gold price had been falling (like the USD)
how over the top world the SKOLs the world be .......

In Bah bah wonderland
facts on debt, hard assets, history of fiat money mean abosultely nothing .....




------------------Goldcorp------------------


Like several other local titans blown up by the '87 crash, Ray Smith the man behind Gold Corp even wrote a book about it in the mid-90s, trying to downplay his role in the scandal, entitled Where's the Gold? Must've had balls of brass. Try blaming the private-investor losses on BNZ instead, I'm told. But the key point for gold investors came right at the top of your reader's story, when he refused to accept Goldcorp's certificate in lieu of gold.

Your reader said the secretary told him, “Oh no. Nobody does that nowadays [takes physical delivery]. It's much too risky. We store all our customers' gold in our vault. And it's a free service".

Everything you needed to know about Goldcorp's business and risks was spelled out right there:

#1. Title was vested in that piece of paper "your proof of ownership" rather than in the gold. That's the problem, legally speaking, with certification. The more persistent risk, physically, lies in over-issuance...selling more certificates than there's gold in the vault [ed note sounds like fractional reserve banking]. Which is why, here at BullionVault, we publish a central register of all customer property instead. Anyone visiting the site can then prove it against the full list of all gold bars held by our vault operators.

#2. The gold "sold" to the buyer wasn't necessarily in the vault anyway. That's made clear by storage being "a free service". Because just like several of the leading gold programs running today, storage can only be free to the buyer if the gold doesn't actually belong to him or her. It's what's known as "un-allocated" making the buyer an unsecured creditor, in the same way that cash depositors are unsecured creditors of commercial banks.

The final judgment in the Goldcorp case realized this, over-turning a previous decision that said non-allocated gold could be subject to a proprietary claim by unsecured creditors. But it can't, firstly because it won't necessarily exist (!) and secondly because that free storage proves they don't actually own anything.

Goldcorp was no more a custodian of physical property than your bank when it accepts a cash deposit. So whatever gold might have been in the vault could then be lent out or sold with or without the customer's explicit knowledge because s/he was only an unsecured creditor, not an owner of physical property left in safe-keeping.

The moral? Always take DELIVERY if you want to get yourself off risk. Possession, on the other hand along with all the extra costs, hassles and lack of liquidity is another matter entirely.

[JBmurc]

OK Skol, I had to wait 16 days or so, but the dollar is obliging well.

Yeah the USD strong right SKOL LOL been great buy for ages ,great chart by the way Elzorro
I just can't fathom anyone that can't see the trend in the USD value....maybe if they lived in a box stiffing glue 24/7 it could make sense they would probably think 1kg of gold was less valuable than a 5 dollar bill........

just say the USD GOLD chart where flipped so the USD had been gaining value for the last few years and the gold price had been falling (like the USD)
how over the top world the SKOLs the world be .......

In Bah bah wonderland
facts on debt, hard assets, history of fiat money mean abosultely nothing .....

[Skol]

I bought in NZD. At the time I bought the chart was .825, now .813, so far so good.

Sooner own USD, actually useful. Who'd own a pile of metal in the basement?

Not a hoarder are you JB? It's OK you know, as long as you admit it.

[Skol]

In Bah bah wonderland
facts on debt, hard assets, history of fiat money mean abosultely nothing .....

Who's in bah bah wonderland? On the subject of debt.

Net external debt/gdp ratio.

Ireland 130%

Greece 91%

NZ 90%

Australia 77%

Canada 20%

USA 19%

UK 14%.

[JBmurc]

Who's in bah bah wonderland? On the subject of debt.

Net external debt/gdp ratio.

Ireland 130%

Greece 91%

NZ 90%

Australia 77%

Canada 20%

USA 19%

UK 14%.

I think you are if you believe those numbers US Debt clock external debt/GDP ratio =UK 390% USA 100.06%

[Skol]

I got them from the NZ Herald this morning, I think you've been reading too many goldbug websites and conspiracy theories.

[JBmurc]

I got them from the NZ Herald this morning, I think you've been reading too many goldbug websites and conspiracy theories.

At one time it was a conspiracy theory to think that the earth was round.
or that Dinosaurs ever existed ..

[elZorro]

Who's in bah bah wonderland? On the subject of debt.

Net external debt/gdp ratio.

Ireland 130%

Greece 91%

NZ 90%

Australia 77%

Canada 20%

USA 19%

UK 14%.

Is this the article Skol? (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/new-zealand/news/article.cfm?l_id=71&objectid=10730596)Interesting, I'd like to have some confirmation on the figures. But I generally believe Gareth Morgan's findings. I guess this means that once many businesses sacked some workers in the US, profits returned. Their old oil wells have presumably left a lot of capital (old money) in the US as well. The outlook for NZ doesn't look so good. We need to get a lot luckier with our resources, and a lot smarter with our exports. I was surprised Aussie wasn't much better off than us on that ranking.

[Skol]

Yep, that's it.

[stevo1]

Is this the article Skol? (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/new-zealand/news/article.cfm?l_id=71&objectid=10730596)Interesting, I'd like to have some confirmation on the figures. But I generally believe Gareth Morgan's findings. I guess this means that once many businesses sacked some workers in the US, profits returned. Their old oil wells have presumably left a lot of capital (old money) in the US as well. The outlook for NZ doesn't look so good. We need to get a lot luckier with our resources, and a lot smarter with our exports. I was surprised Aussie wasn't much better off than us on that ranking.
http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/economic-indicators/General_Government_Net_Debt_Percentage_GDP/

(% of GDP) 2010 Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Advanced Economies in year 2010 is 64.099 %.

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Albania in year 2010 is 59.731 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Algeria in year 2010 is 1.179 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Antigua and Barbuda in year 2010 is 93.332 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Australia in year 2010 is 5.529 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Austria in year 2010 is 49.814 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Bahamas in year 2010 is 47.092 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Bahrain in year 2010 is 32.046 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Belarus in year 2010 is 22.447 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Belgium in year 2010 is 81.539 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Belize in year 2010 is 81.651 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Bolivia in year 2010 is 21.552 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Bosnia and Herzegovina in year 2010 is 29.913 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Brazil in year 2010 is 40.159 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Bulgaria in year 2010 is -4.19 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Cameroon in year 2010 is 12.861 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Canada in year 2010 is 32.219 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Cape Verde in year 2010 is 73.167 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Chile in year 2010 is -11.534 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Colombia in year 2010 is 28.479 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Congo, Republic of in year 2010 is 17.41 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Costa Rica in year 2010 is 39.381 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Denmark in year 2010 is 0.893 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Dominica in year 2010 is 85.507 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Dominican Republic in year 2010 is 28.989 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Egypt in year 2010 is 60.576 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Equatorial Guinea in year 2010 is 7.543 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Estonia in year 2010 is -0.963 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Ethiopia in year 2010 is 32.545 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Euro Area in year 2010 is 64.355 %.

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for European Union in year 2010 is 60.833 %.

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Fiji in year 2010 is 52.062 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Finland in year 2010 is -56.797 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for France in year 2010 is 74.551 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Gambia in year 2010 is 57.386 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Germany in year 2010 is 53.818 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Ghana in year 2010 is 38.334 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Greece in year 2010 is 142.024 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Grenada in year 2010 is 114.618 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Guinea in year 2010 is 88.702 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Guyana in year 2010 is 55.251 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Hong Kong in year 2010 is 0 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Hungary in year 2010 is 73.37 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Iceland in year 2010 is 67.564 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Ireland in year 2010 is 69.385 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Israel in year 2010 is 73.157 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Italy in year 2010 is 99.561 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Japan in year 2010 is 117.466 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Jordan in year 2010 is 55.094 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Kazakhstan in year 2010 is -10.664 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Kenya in year 2010 is 45.466 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Korea in year 2010 is 29.554 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Latvia in year 2010 is 30.705 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Lesotho in year 2010 is 0.046 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Liberia in year 2010 is 95.116 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Libya in year 2010 is -94.908 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Lithuania in year 2010 is 31.356 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Macau in year 2010 is 125.082 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Macedonia in year 2010 is 24.016 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Major advanced economies (G7) in year 2010 is 74.431 %.

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Malawi in year 2010 is 37.557 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Mali in year 2010 is 22.735 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Mauritius in year 2010 is 50.52 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Mexico in year 2010 is 38.121 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Moldova in year 2010 is 29.812 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Montenegro in year 2010 is 38.617 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Morocco in year 2010 is 49.175 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Namibia in year 2010 is 15.699 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Nepal in year 2010 is 35.505 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Netherlands in year 2010 is 27.476 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for New Zealand in year 2010 is 4.596 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Niger in year 2010 is 2.558 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Nigeria in year 2010 is 18.292 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Norway in year 2010 is -156.44 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Panama in year 2010 is 39.985 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Poland in year 2010 is 21.438 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Portugal in year 2010 is 79.096 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Qatar in year 2010 is 14.652 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Saint Vincent and the Grenadines in year 2010 is 82.235 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Saudi Arabia in year 2010 is -49.844 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Serbia in year 2010 is 39.235 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Seychelles in year 2010 is 76.179 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Sierra Leone in year 2010 is 0 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Solomon Islands in year 2010 is 16.086 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for South Africa in year 2010 is 31.798 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Spain in year 2010 is 48.752 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Swaziland in year 2010 is 8.417 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Sweden in year 2010 is -14.607 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Switzerland in year 2010 is 53.223 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Syria in year 2010 is 16.577 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Trinidad and Tobago in year 2010 is 14.864 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Turkey in year 2010 is 34.999 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Ukraine in year 2010 is 38.393 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for United Arab Emirates in year 2010 is -76.176 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for United Kingdom in year 2010 is 69.423 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for United States in year 2010 is 64.824 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Uruguay in year 2010 is 41.17 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Vietnam in year 2010 is 49.779 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for World Average in year 2010 is 18.32 %. -

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Yemen in year 2010 is 36.566 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) for Zambia in year 2010 is 10.335 %. See notes for: General government net debt (National currency).

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) in other Years
Economic Indicators for Year 2016 (Forecast) - Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP)
Economic Indicators for Year 2015 (Forecast) - Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP)
Economic Indicators for Year 2014 (Forecast) - Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP)
Economic Indicators for Year 2013 (Forecast) - Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP)
Economic Indicators for Year 2012 (Forecast) - Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP)
Economic Indicators for Year 2011 (Forecast) - Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP)
Economic Indicators for Year 2010 (Current) - Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP)
Economic Indicators for Year 2009 - Total Government Net Debt (% of

[Skol]

Well JB, where did you get 100% from for the USA? One of your shonky goldbug websites.

[elZorro]

I'm getting lost here, I need a good definition of indebtedness. Closest I got was this chart (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Country_foreign_exchange_reserves_minus_exter nal_debt.png), which brought in gold reserves to the picture:

This shows the UK and USA in red (not good). China in green (good).

[JBmurc]

Well JB, where did you get 100% from for the USA? One of your shonky goldbug websites.

The USdebt clock site which has the right total Gov debt at near the debt ceiling 14.3 trillion.... guess it depends on who you believe

[Skol]

The USdebt clock site which has the right total Gov debt at near the debt ceiling 14.3 trillion.... guess it depends on who you believe

Where's QE3? Marc Faber said there would be "QE3, QE4, QE26, QE100!"

[JBmurc]

they will be the've got to.. when your in the hole a trillion a year , you must borrow more to pay the bills - keep the defense force running ,pay the massive interest bill to the foreign creditors etc....without doubt the US will do another Q.E ---till Inflation gets high enough to decrease the value of the debt to GDP this will will also mean a much lower export dollar which would help as would less imports ...

I'm more than happy to put a $100 bet that within a year from today the USA will do another Q.E program

[asc4]

I doubt it will be QE3 though JB, they have to rebrand it so it looks like something else... maybe Liquidity Strengthening 1.. hehe.

[Skol]

they will be the've got to.. when your in the hole a trillion a year , you must borrow more to pay the bills - keep the defense force running ,pay the massive interest bill to the foreign creditors etc....without doubt the US will do another Q.E ---till Inflation gets high enough to decrease the value of the debt to GDP this will will also mean a much lower export dollar which would help as would less imports ...

I'm more than happy to put a $100 bet that within a year from today the USA will do another Q.E program

You've been bummed out there JB. Bernanke's onto it, everything's under control, no inflation, no unions demanding big wage increases, things sure aren't good, but they've been worse.

You've been into that Von Mises stuff again. Sure glad I don't own gold or silver right now, getting a pasting at the moment.

[JBmurc]

You've been bummed out there JB. Bernanke's onto it, everything's under control, no inflation, no unions demanding big wage increases, things sure aren't good, but they've been worse.

You've been into that Von Mises stuff again. Sure glad I don't own gold or silver right now.

bummed out by Bernanke I don't so ,everythings under control yeah right..> he also said the housing market was very strong only weeks before Fanny&freedie crashed ,did you here his latest speech he omits he doesn't have a clue how all the crazy Government interventions will play out going forward( he's only the guy filling the holes of the sinking ship with bubblegum....)

holding Gold and silver yeah I'm glad your not either your much better of buying long dated US bonds

[winner69]

Maybe the big sell off is to come ... and when it does it will be huge

The Most Important Chart for Gold Investors

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd


Better remember which pot plants the gold bars are hidden in

[elZorro]

Maybe the big sell off is to come ... and when it does it will be huge

The Most Important Chart for Gold Investors

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd

Better remember which pot plants the gold bars are hidden in

Hang on Winner69, the article goes on to suggest buying gold on dips..and the worst drop on that chart was 20%. A lot of shares have been doing that lately. How many shares recovered from drops to post all-time highs in the years afterwards? Gold always does. It's a fairly safe bet if you just wait long enough.

[CAM]

and the sales pitch at the end of the article....

And we show exactly how to capitalize on the next correction in our third annual Summer Buying Guide in the June BIG GOLD. We’re convinced our charts will give you the confidence to buy gold, silver, and precious metals stocks when the weak hands are nervous and selling… Check out this month’s issue risk-free (http://www.caseyresearch.com/cm/moms-ira?ppref=CDD406XX0611B)

[Skol]

How many shares recovered from drops to post all-time highs in the years afterwards? Gold always does. It's a fairly safe bet if you just wait long enough.

If you don't mind waiting for 30 years - with no dividend.

No thanks.