SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[hardt]

Load
Up
The
Truck

2x levered this trade and sold out 5 seconds ago... Covered entirety of the recent months slump in ATM/SML.

[minimoke]

Oz closed at NZD equivalent of $8.55. Hopefully we see the start of teh month with a positive day. Needs to move a lot to get back to close to parity

[hardt]

Pile in big ladies and gents

[sb9]

Pile in big ladies and gents

Bit more info pls as to why....

[peat]

Bit more info pls as to why....


Pile in big ladies and gents

hes just commenting on the sharp price rise today (over +4% at one point)
tho there is no real sign of 'big' if that means volume. 25k shares traded so far - I guess its an ok start to the day.

[minimoke]

we are waiting for australia to wake up

[hardt]

hes just commenting on the sharp price rise today (over +4% at one point)
tho there is no real sign of 'big' if that means volume. 25k shares traded so far - i guess its an ok start to the day.

nda
nda
nda
nda

[peat]

nda
nda
nda
nda

nfc what you are on about?

[winner69]

nfc what you are on about?

It’s hardt lingo for something ....quite obscure is hardt at times but generally one gets the gist

[couta1]

It’s hardt lingo for something ....quite obscure is hardt at times How about dicoak?

[couta1]

How about dicoak? Okay I'll help dicoak equals Drunk in charge of a keyboard.Lol

[sl234]

Bought in today at 9.05
Forward p/e looking good, hoping sunshine will prevail.

[minimoke]

Bought in today at 9.05
Forward p/e looking good, hoping sunshine will prevail.Welcome aboard. It can be a rocky road and you need to hang on - but not as tightly as your do with ATM. The 12 month spread has been $6.26 - $13.53. We are all looking forward to it heading back north again.

[Nasi Goreng]

Its my take that the sun has been shining for quite a while and the forecast is for plenty more sun. If you ignore the share price, just look at the last 3 years performance by Synlait and look at what's in the pipeline for the next 2-3 years. I think this is NZ's #1 dairy investment taking into account risk, profit growth, growth prospects, plant, assets and product diversification.

[Beagle]

Its my take that the sun has been shining for quite a while and the forecast is for plenty more sun. If you ignore the share price, just look at the last 3 years performance by Synlait and look at what's in the pipeline for the next 2-3 years. I think this is NZ's #1 dairy investment taking into account risk, profit growth, growth prospects, plant, assets and product diversification.

Excellent synopsis.

[minimoke]

. I think this is NZ's #1 dairy investment taking into account risk, profit growth, growth prospects, plant, assets and product diversification.?? You are limiting to "dairy". Im not sure there is much else on NZX that offers so much opportunity. (except ATM - in which I also hold a bag full)

[Nasi Goreng]

Synlait has a great business model. Find markets where they can add value, build strong relationship with farmers, load plant, grow cash, reinvest... repeat.

They recently said in the annual report that they don't expect to provide dividends in the medium term and I'm totally ok with this. There is a big pipeline of opportunities in place which all result in strategic placement of new plant which helps the company to continue to grow.

[Beagle]

?? You are limiting to "dairy". Im not sure there is much else on NZX that offers so much opportunity. (except ATM - in which I also hold a bag full)

Agreed. FY19 PE at $9.00 gives a forward PE of just 17.5. VERY short list of companies with similar high growth prospects over the next few years on a more compelling PE than that with one notable exception, OCA. Maybe SUM other company fits the bill too IF they can actually sell what they're building. IF is in capitals because I think that's a big IF. We know Synlait can sell all it can produce don't we :)

[minimoke]

Agreed. FY19 PE at $9.00 gives a forward PE of just 17.5. VERY short list of companies with similar high growth prospects over the next few years on a more compelling PE than that with one notable exception, OCA. Maybe SUM other company fits the bill too IF they can actually sell what they're building. IF is in capitals because I think that's a big IF. We know Synlait can sell all it can produce don't we :)
I hold both OCA and SUM and see these as good (actually really good) prospects in the medium term. But still not as good as SML. Hence I'm heavily weighted in SML and ATM with OCA and SUM in my second tier.

[Ggcc]

I hold both OCA and SUM and see these as good (actually really good) prospects in the medium term. But still not as good as SML. Hence I'm heavily weighted in SML and ATM with OCA and SUM in my second tier.
Very similar shares that I have except I am heavily weighted in OCA then ATM then SUM and finally SML

[couta1]

Very similar shares that I have except I am heavily weighted in OCA then ATM then SUM and finally SML Similar except very heavily weighted in HLG, no SUM and a small parcel in this dog.Lol

[Beagle]

Similar except very heavily weighted in HLG, no SUM and a small parcel in this dog.Lol

This used to match ATM in terms of price for quite a while. I think we need some flea powder lol

[couta1]

This used to match ATM in terms of price for quite a while. I think we need some flea powder lol A tickle up with a Blunderbuss should do the trick.

[minimoke]

Patience little Grasshoppers. SML have bought a cheese factory and we should know good things take time

[Beagle]

Patience little Grasshoppers. SML have bought a cheese factory and we should know good things take time
lol I see what you did there...for those that don't know https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcILD9OJ2wg

[minimoke]

lol I see what you did there...for those that don't know https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcILD9OJ2wg
Or for the even younger traders: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbNCBVzPYak

[nzsharetrade]

bright dairy is not doing well in China. big boys with deep pocket must be watching.

After the announcement of thethird quarterly report on October 29. On October 30, Bright Dairy opened near the limit Closing 4.57% at the close

Since March of this year, Bright Dairy’s share price has been smashed. From 15 yuan / share fell to 7.55 yuan / share

The market value has shrunk by 9 billion.

[minimoke]

Bumping - just so we dont forget SML as we start to see ATM recover a bit. Up at $8.58 at the moment with ATM's AGM tomorrow.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/935b2b3d/milk-processors-reap-fatter-margins-in-september-quarter.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Milk%20processors%20reap%20fatter%20m argins%20in%20September%20quarter&utm_content=Milk%20processors%20reap%20fatter%20ma rgins%20in%20September%20quarter+CID_07e0bbd89ed9c 9defa779b1d95dfcefc&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle935b2b3dmilk-processors-reap-fatter-margins-in-september-quarterhtml
Good for Synlait I think.

[minimoke]

Bumping - just so we dont forget SML as we start to see ATM recover a bit. Up at $8.58 at the moment with ATM's AGM tomorrow.Looks like we might be out of reverse gear and starting back up the gears. Currently at $8.70 (perhaps off the back of ATM's CBEC news today) or maybe in anticipation of good news at next weeks AGM

[minimoke]

Since SML supplies ATM, and ATMs supply into china (ATM's largest market) had uncertainty due to CBEC regulations it is fair to assume this uncertainty could also affect SML.

Good news today though - that uncertainty has been removed and well summarised here with ATM's market announcement. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/327245

[peat]

Since SML supplies ATM ...


but it could supply anyone right ? Danone, Nestle, even Fonterra?

[babymonster]

now forget the FDA and sale them to other market...

[minimoke]

but it could supply anyone right ? Danone, Nestle, even Fonterra?SML has a long term supply agreement with ATM and ATM is a substantial holder of SML.

Fonterra role is to provide additional supply to ATM that SML cant meet.

Worth noting that ATM manages their stock / inventory going into markets like Chinas 11/11 day. This results in supply running out within 2 hours of opening, This doesn't mean there is no supply from SML - it is simply that it is being managed.

[Beagle]

SML has a long term supply agreement with ATM and ATM is a substantial holder of SML.

Fonterra role is to provide additional supply to ATM that SML cant meet.

Worth noting that ATM manages their stock / inventory going into markets like Chinas 11/11 day. This results in supply running out within 2 hours of opening, This doesn't mean there is no supply from SML - it is simply that it is being managed.

Yeap, stock outages are a way to boost market hype. Watched an interesting segment on Canada Goose (google them) on CNBC the other day. Chinese people queuing up on the street for hours to get their Canada goose jacket at U.S. 1,000 each...hoping they wouldn't run out of stock before they managed to get in the door...all part of a marketing hype.

[peat]

SML has a long term supply agreement with ATM and ATM is a substantial holder of SML.


Yes understood, but my point is that other parties will also be interested in SML's products should the opportunity present itself for whatever reason. eg this Munchkin Inc announcement today.

[minimoke]

Market seems to be expecting poor news tomorrow - down a couple of percent today. I cant make the meeting so hopefully a ST'er who can attend update as as news comes up.

[winner69]

When we going to get the exciting profit guidance. ...just before the meeting starts?

When’s that

[minimoke]

When we going to get the exciting profit guidance. ...just before the meeting starts?

When’s that
1.00pm - its late!

[minimoke]

Expect Infant Formula production to go from 35580mt to 41000-45000mt in 2019

Guidance for FY19 remains an increase in profit but not as substantial asthis year’s increase

[44wishlists]

https://www.synlait.com/site/uploads/2018/11/Synlait-AGM-Presentation.pdf

[winner69]

Expect Infant Formula production to go from 35580mt to 41000-45000mt in 2019

Guidance for FY19 remains an increase in profit but not as substantial asthis year’s increase

So none the wiser really except profit growth will be less than 89%

[Ggcc]

So none the wiser really except profit growth will be less than 89%
I agree none the wiser..... A whole load of quotes to fill the gaps. I guess boring is good?

[Leftfield]

Golly, Lot's of BIG picture stuff. (https://www.synlait.com/site/uploads/2018/11/Synlait-AGM-Presentation.pdf) Call me old fashioned, but while I liked the CFO's presentation I found the new CEO's presentation and much else just a tab waffley! :confused:

[Beagle]

Boring is good !

[minimoke]

No particular reactions from markets yet - but ASX is on $8.09 or NZD $8.61

[dreamcatcher]

IMPRESSIVE RESULT APPLAUDED BY SHAREHOLDERS

Synlait Milk’s (NZX: SML; ASX: SM1) Annual Meeting of Shareholders today celebrated the near doubling of profit in the company’s tenth year of operations. Synlait also used the opportunity to shape the next ten years by launching a new corporate brand identity and purpose statement.

http://www.voxy.co.nz/business/5/327138

[Gecko]

Golly, Lot's of BIG picture stuff. (https://www.synlait.com/site/uploads/2018/11/Synlait-AGM-Presentation.pdf) Call me old fashioned, but while I liked the CFO's presentation I found the new CEO's presentation and much else just a tab waffley! :confused:

Completely agree with your comment Left Field. If shareholders received a cent for every corporate buzz word from the CEO the share price would be at an all time high! Did not walk away with any meaningful takeaways or clear sense of strategic direction from his part of the presentation - a bit vanilla for my liking. Milne was "steady as she goes" with Penno clearly a more dynamic and engaging speaker who re-energised the room with his limited presentation time. Reassured to have their continued involvement. Would not be anywhere near as confident without it. Interested to hear one of the Directors (Roost?) introduced as director of FBU and MPG. :confused: Sam Knowles introduced as a director of Xerox rather than XRO which was a bit of a worry.

Pleased to see ambitious environmental targets set. Keen to see how seriously they take these.

[BlackPeter]

Been there, listened to the presentation and had as well a chat with the chair, the new CEO (Leon Clement) and some of the directors.

First impression of the new CEO: He is tall, speaks Maori (at least he introduced himself in Te Reo) is rather soft spoken and seems to have some of the "softer" traits John Penno potentially was lacking a bit (like focus on brand, logo, mission and lots of fluffy big picture stuff).

What did I learn? Well, pink is the new blue ... the new logo - white "milky" letters on a pink background. That's what new CEO's do - change the logo, right?

They do have a new motto as well: "Doing milk differently for a healthier world". Shareholders are encouraged to share this motto to others (Tick - done)

Leon talked a lot about soft(-er) subjects like health and safety, environmental impact, diversity (in relation to Maori, but as well looking at gender). Some of them obviously important and others good for the soul.

Still - great that Nigel (the CFO) had a wee intermezzo talking about boring old revenue, margins and inceasing the profits per metric ton. More my type of man ;); Love this stuff ... and good as well to learn (more from the discussions afterwards) that they are still thinking about ways to improve the margin: Ready to drink infant formula might be in the wings ...

The cynics in me says that if the CEO is introducing himself in Te Reo and talking mainly about safety, environmental impact, diversity, a new motto and a new logo, than this might be his most important priorities. To be fair - he talked as well about diversification of customers and products.

And hey - the company did need a bit more of some of the above - and this is just the catalyst to turn a great team into an outstanding team?

Hard to say at this stage ... but we certainly can't blame the board for looking for a copy of John Penno. Synlait is a great and high performing team ... and I do hope that they found the right CEO to continue their success story, but yes, maybe I can see why they picked him. Time will tell.

Not too many difficult questions.

They did acknowledged that the newly purchased cheese factory (did I hear the word opportunistic purchase?) as well as the deal with Foodstuffs is unlikely to add to higher margins, but both are considered as a good fit - diversification and reliable base load.

Last years numbers seemed to have made most (all) shareholders happy and content with themselves and life ...

Catering (after the meeting) was healthy and tasty (though cookies in the new Synlait colour pink looked a bit odd, but tasted much better than they looked) ... and numbers - I'd say something like 70 to 80 shareholders.

[peat]

thanks for the write up BlackPeter.

[RupertBear]

Been there, listened to the presentation and had as well a chat with the chair, the new CEO (Leon Clement) and some of the directors.

First impression of the new CEO: He is tall, speaks Maori (at least he introduced himself in Te Reo) is rather soft spoken and seems to have some of the "softer" traits John Penno potentially was lacking a bit (like focus on brand, logo, mission and lots of fluffy big picture stuff).

What did I learn? Well, pink is the new blue ... the new logo - white "milky" letters on a pink background. That's what new CEO's do - change the logo, right?

They do have a new motto as well: "Doing milk differently for a healthier world". Shareholders are encouraged to share this motto to others (Tick - done)

Leon talked a lot about soft(-er) subjects like health and safety, environmental impact, diversity (in relation to Maori, but as well looking at gender). Some of them obviously important and others good for the soul.

Still - great that Nigel (the CFO) had a wee intermezzo talking about boring old revenue, margins and inceasing the profits per metric ton. More my type of man ;); Love this stuff ... and good as well to learn (more from the discussions afterwards) that they are still thinking about ways to improve the margin: Ready to drink infant formula might be in the wings ...

The cynics in me says that if the CEO is introducing himself in Te Reo and talking mainly about safety, environmental impact, diversity, a new motto and a new logo, than this might be his most important priorities. To be fair - he talked as well about diversification of customers and products.

And hey - the company did need a bit more of some of the above - and this is just the catalyst to turn a great team into an outstanding team?

Hard to say at this stage ... but we certainly can't blame the board for looking for a copy of John Penno. Synlait is a great and high performing team ... and I do hope that they found the right CEO to continue their success story, but yes, maybe I can see why they picked him. Time will tell.

Not too many difficult questions.

They did acknowledged that the newly purchased cheese factory (did I hear the word opportunistic?) as well as the deal with Foodstuffs is unlikely to add new margins, but both are considered as a good fit - diversification and reliable base load.

Last years numbers seemed to have made most (all) shareholders happy and content with themselves and life ...

Catering (after the meeting) was healthy and tasty (though cookies in the new Synlait colour pink looked a bit odd, but tasted much better than they looked) ... and numbers - I'd say something like 70 ot 80 shareholders.

Thanks for sharing BP :)

[minimoke]

Catering (after the meeting) was healthy and tasty (though cookies in the new Synlait colour pink looked a bit odd, but tasted much better than they looked) ... and numbers - I'd say something like 70 to 80 shareholders.Out of interest how did shareholder diversity look. All pale male? or were there some Maori or other races in there as well?

[BlackPeter]

Out of interest how did shareholder diversity look. All pale male? or were there some Maori or other races in there as well?

Don't forget that the cornerstone shareholder is a Chinese company which did send a number of representatives ... this added clearly to racial diversity ;); As well - quite a number of female investors. Not sure about Maori ... but honestly ... I didn't really put focus on race recognition, but I am sure that more people in the room would have understood the CEO if he would have introduced himself in English rather than in Te Reo ....

[minimoke]

Don't forget that the cornerstone shareholder is a Chinese company which did send a number of representatives ... this added clearly to racial diversity ;); As well - quite a number of female investors. Not sure about Maori ... but honestly ... I didn't really put focus on race recognition, but I am sure that more people in the room would have understood the CEO if he would have introduced himself in English rather than in Te Reo ....

Well, that is all very disappointing. VERY!



I'm going to hazard a guess and figure less than 2% of the audience were fluent in Te Reo.

Management Communication 101. Communicate in a manner and style that your audience understands, FAIL

Lean Manufacturing 101. Every single thing you do must add productive value. FAIL

Corporate Diplomacy and Respect 101. Greet your (major) stakeholders in their native language (even the Princess chick manages this. FAIL. And I think this is more than a fail - its offensive that he would not show a small courtesy to our Chinese fellow owners.

I see big RED FLAGS of corporate bloat swaying stiffly in the wind. We now get an understanding of Fonteras woes.

He better buck his ideas up or I will be selling out, retaining a handful in reserve to give me entry to next years AGM where I would not expect a repeat of such poor performance.

[nizzy]

pleased to see the new CEO emphasising both the company's NZ'ness & demonstrating forward looking nature by his use of Te Reo. Positions SML ahead of the pack while at same time quietly underemphasising the Chinese majority owner, which is a red flag to NZ Inc if they actually knew.

[minimoke]

demonstrating forward looking nature by his use of Te Reo. .Lets put the hyperbole aside. Its a dying language (in, no doubt the same way coal is a dying energy source) and thus investing corporate time in it is not forward looking (2001 25% of Maori spoke Te Reo, 2006, 24%, 2013 21%) The Te Kupenga study suggests most of those fluent are aged over 65. Now look at mortality rate of Maori.

[Ggcc]

Lets put the hyperbole aside. Its a dying language (in, no doubt the same way coal is a dying energy source) and thus investing corporate time in it is not forward looking (2001 25% of Maori spoke Te Reo, 2006, 24%, 2013 21%) The Te Kupenga study suggests most of those fluent are aged over 65. Now look at mortality rate of Maori.
I am not Maori, but I encourage nz companies to use New Zealand Maori language/culture to their advantage. As far as I heard the language is on the decline yes, but no need to kick it in the butt. It sets us aside from countries. Foreigners I speak to love the Maori culture. Although if no one understands you, or there are no subtitles it’s pointless.

[minimoke]

I am not Maori, but I encourage nz companies to use New Zealand Maori language/culture to their advantage.
Well, that is just offensive. Maori culture belongs to Maori and shouldn't be appropriated by business for their own commercial gain

That is aside from the fact Maori culture is not steeped in cows, milk or farming.

When I jump into my Santa Fe or turn on my Samsung phone I'll wonder at the emersion in Korean culture I'l experience.


As far as I heard the language is on the decline yes, but no need to kick it in the butt. It sets us aside from countries. Foreigners I speak to love the Maori culture. Although if no one understands you, or there are no subtitles it’s pointless.I am not suggesting we should kick the language in the butt. But I am clear - it is not the role of listed companies to keep an indigenous language alive. Especially when that company has a reducing share price with no dividend on the horizon. Its a worry if the best they can come up with is a @pinking@ of the brand (WTF!) and an intro to an AGM that no-one understands.

[winner69]

Well, that is just offensive. Maori culture belongs to Maori and shouldn't be appropriated by business for their own commercial gain

That is aside from the fact Maori culture is not steeped in cows, milk or farming.

When I jump into my Santa Fe or turn on my Samsung phone I'll wonder at the emersion in Korean culture I'l experience.

[/FONT][/COLOR][COLOR=#222222][FONT=Verdana]I am not suggesting we should kick the language in the butt. But I am clear - it is not the role of listed companies to keep an indigenous language alive. Especially when that company has a reducing share price with no dividend on the horizon. Its a worry if the best they can come up with is a @pinking@ of the brand (WTF!) and an intro to an AGM that no-one understands.

That pinking is terrible ...from a graphics point of view I mean

Nice of pink though ...very strong

[Ggcc]

Well, that is just offensive. Maori culture belongs to Maori and shouldn't be appropriated by business for their own commercial gain

That is aside from the fact Maori culture is not steeped in cows, milk or farming.

When I jump into my Santa Fe or turn on my Samsung phone I'll wonder at the emersion in Korean culture I'l experience.

[/FONT][/COLOR][COLOR=#222222][FONT=Verdana]I am not suggesting we should kick the language in the butt. But I am clear - it is not the role of listed companies to keep an indigenous language alive. Especially when that company has a reducing share price with no dividend on the horizon. Its a worry if the best they can come up with is a @pinking@ of the brand (WTF!) and an intro to an AGM that no-one understands.
Hey you have your opinion I have mine. Lets agree to disagree and hope this company performs above expectations in the future 😊

[nizzy]

MM, have to agree to disagree.
Te Reo is blossoming around NZ - classes simply cannot keep up with the numbers of people applying. Maori agribusiness is emerging as an exciting & influential force. Witness Miraka in Taupo, the new dairy plant being built in Kawerau (JV between Iwi and Japanese) or Ngai Tahu Farming. Great to see Synlait looking to the future in this way.

[BlackPeter]

pleased to see the new CEO emphasising both the company's NZ'ness & demonstrating forward looking nature by his use of Te Reo. Positions SML ahead of the pack while at same time quietly underemphasising the Chinese majority owner, which is a red flag to NZ Inc if they actually knew.

Just a wee clarificaion. Bright Dairies (the Chinese cornerstone shareholder) holds 39%. This is a lot, but it is NOT the majority!

[minimoke]

MM, have to agree to disagree.
Te Reo is blossoming around NZ - classes simply cannot keep up with the numbers of people applying. I've given you the factual statistics that appear contrary to that opinion


Maori agribusiness is emerging as an exciting & influential force. Witness Miraka in Taupo, the new dairy plant being built in Kawerau (JV between Iwi and Japanese) or Ngai Tahu Farming.Absolutely nothing wrong with Maori agribusines. However this sector is about utilising Maori owned assets such as land and fisheries by maori for the benefit of maori. That is an exciting future for Maori.

That said, these do not necessarily benefit all Maori. They benefit the beneficiaries of the various Maori trusts who own these business. And those trusts are usually iwi based. Which means unless you are part of that iwi you cant be part of it. Now, if we are being totally transparent about diversity do you wonder about the racial diversity in such organisations. Have a look at Mirakas Board. All male except for one Vietnamese woman. Or the executive: six men two women. Is that the future?


Great to see Synlait looking to the future in this way.I dont see the correlation. (It should be patently obvious there is a difficulty with your position on the future. You or I can buy a share of Synliat. But we cant buy a share in Miraka or Ngai Tahu Farming)

[minimoke]

Just a wee clarificaion. Bright Dairies (the Chinese cornerstone shareholder) holds 39%. This is a lot, but it is NOT the majority!
And given Government blocking Huawei 5G technology we might be bloody glad to have such ain investor standing in our corner of the ring

[Beagle]

Well, that is just offensive. Maori culture belongs to Maori and shouldn't be appropriated by business for their own commercial gain

That is aside from the fact Maori culture is not steeped in cows, milk or farming.

When I jump into my Santa Fe or turn on my Samsung phone I'll wonder at the emersion in Korean culture I'l experience.

[/FONT][/COLOR][COLOR=#222222][FONT=Verdana]I am not suggesting we should kick the language in the butt. But I am clear - it is not the role of listed companies to keep an indigenous language alive. Especially when that company has a reducing share price with no dividend on the horizon. Its a worry if the best they can come up with is a @pinking@ of the brand (WTF!) and an intro to an AGM that no-one understands.


I've given you the factual statistics that appear contrary to that opinion

Absolutely nothing wrong with Maori agribusines. However this sector is about utilising Maori owned assets such as land and fisheries by maori for the benefit of maori. That is an exciting future for Maori.

That said, these do not necessarily benefit all Maori. They benefit the beneficiaries of the various Maori trusts who own these business. And those trusts are usually iwi based. Which means unless you are part of that iwi you cant be part of it. Now, if we are being totally transparent about diversity do you wonder about the racial diversity in such organisations. Have a look at Mirakas Board. All male except for one Vietnamese woman. Or the executive: six men two women. Is that the future?

I dont see the correlation. (It should be patently obvious there is a difficulty with your position on the future. You or I can buy a share of Synliat. But we cant buy a share in Miraka or Ngai Tahu Farming)

+1 Couldn't agree more.

[mfd]

I've given you the factual statistics that appear contrary to that opinion

Your stats aren't contradictory. Maori speakers may have been reducing up to your most recent 2013 figure, but this predates the current burst of interest nizzy mentions. I've heard the same thing locally, Maori classes cannot keep up with the demand. I have no problems with a brief introduction in Maori, and this is what I see in most aspects of NZ life, not just business. Feel free to let your eyes glaze over for 20 seconds if it's a problem.

[minimoke]

Your stats aren't contradictory. Maori speakers may have been reducing up to your most recent 2013 figure, but this predates the current burst of interest nizzy mentions. I've heard the same thing locally, Maori classes cannot keep up with the demand.
You are being blind sided by a usual manufacturing problem which students of Measurement 101 would understand. What is important - the observation of inputs (people enrolling) or the measurement of outputs (people who leave a course able to speak Maori)

Signups are meaningless


I have no problems with a brief introduction in Maori, and this is what I see in most aspects of NZ life, not just business. Feel free to let your eyes glaze over for 20 seconds if it's a problem.So often its not brief. 20 seconds you are getting the cut down version. But that is still 20 seconds that could be spent drilling down into the hard numbers.

[nizzy]

Yes, but Bright have effective control through Board representation.

[minimoke]

Hopefully SML is aware of this govt money slopping around - howabout a loan to help with Geraldine purchase

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/108961366/government-lends-10m-to-westland-milk-for-high-value-products

[mfd]

You are being blind sided by a usual manufacturing problem which students of Measurement 101 would understand. What is important - the observation of inputs (people enrolling) or the measurement of outputs (people who leave a course able to speak Maori)

Signups are meaningless

Of course the numbers of people wanting to learn is not meaningless. Luckily, the latest census data will be released shortly which will provide conclusive data, until then we can only really guess at the direction of travel.

[nizzy]

You are being blind sided by a usual manufacturing problem which students of Measurement 101 would understand. What is important - the observation of inputs (people enrolling) or the measurement of outputs (people who leave a course able to speak Maori)

Signups are meaningless

So often its not brief. 20 seconds you are getting the cut down version. But that is still 20 seconds that could be spent drilling down into the hard numbers.

An understanding of the language and culture is intended output for most Te Reo courses, not fluency. I'd suggest most meet the objective.
I'm just surprised that in 2018 a business leader doing an intro in Te Reo is still an issue. Its pretty standard at many events I attend. Part of being a NZ'er, connected to Aotearoa.

p.s. wonder if Ngai Tahu will go A2 at Eyrewell, useful volume of milk for someone. Or longer term even take a position in SML itself ?

[minimoke]

An understanding of the language and culture is intended output for most Te Reo courses, not fluency. I'd suggest most meet the objective. In the absence of any data to validate your view, I'll take your word for it. Seems to me to be a low bar of achievement, but there you go.


I'm just surprised that in 2018 a business leader doing an intro in Te Reo is still an issue. Its pretty standard at many events I attend. Yup - pretty standard for most events i go to as well. But I have no idea what the speaker is trying to achieve when next to no-one has a clue what they are saying. Without exception there is no translation
Part of being a NZ'er, connected to Aotearoa. Its a pretty weird world where people feel connected by listening to something they can't comprehend. Sadly its a level of virtue I'll never achieve.


p.s. wonder if Ngai Tahu will go A2 at Eyrewell, useful volume of milk for someone. Or longer term even take a position in SML itself ?If westland Milk are getting into it no reason why others wont be. But its not just the milk thats important. Its your brand and certification that goes along with it.

[Yoda]

Kia ora ! In the mean time , while the languge debate continues, and whether the intro should be translated or not ( I for one think it definaitly should) otherwise it is just arogent and rude and irelavent ) , the SP pokes it head above the MA30 line for the first time in over 2 months. The MACD continues to rise . This might be a good time to buy some more. I managed to pick up a few k yesterday afternoon at 8.60 .

Kia ora! I te wa o te wa, ka haere tonu te tautohetohe, mehemea me whakaputahia te whakawhitinga, kaore ranei (me whakaaro tetahi ki te whakapae) mehemea he tika noa iho, he whakaheke me te hekore), ka pana te SP i runga ake i te raina MA30 mo te wa tuatahi i roto i te 2 marama. Kei te piki ake te MACD. He wa pai tenei hei hoko atu i etahi atu. I whakahaerehia e au ki te kohikohi i etahi ra i te ahiahi o te ahiahi i te 8.60.


I have no idea if that is correct :t_up:

[nizzy]

ka pai Yoda. Neither do I , we both need to go on a course :)

[minimoke]

I have no idea if that is correct :t_up:If I was the virtuous type I would be impressed!

[winner69]

Synlait up with the play and global trends

PINK is the now colour

https://www.shutterstock.com/blog/2019-color-trends

[peat]

I'm listening to the audio of the AGM
https://www.synlait.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Synlait-AGM-audio-file.mp3

[winner69]

I'm listening to the audio of the AGM
https://www.synlait.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Synlait-AGM-audio-file.mp3

Got to the applause yet ....

[Beagle]

He ihu kurī, he tangata haere
Like a dog follows his nose, man will find opportunity.

We'll I've sniffed over this one and I reckon there's awesome growth in the years ahead.

P.S. I am definitely with Minimoke on this one. If people choose to speak or write in Maori I think the right thing to do is that a translation should be provided.

[peat]

Got to the applause yet ....
no but I can begin to appreciate why minimoke went on about the touchy feely stuff being a bit strong. I'm feeling a holisticked !
Though for the record I am happy for Te Reo to be supported - no other country is going to do it so I believe its NZ's responsibility
Happier to hear about electro plating and electro ferrin etc etc

[minimoke]

I'll just go check my blood pressure and then decide if I'll give it a listen

Note to Board: ATM can live stream. How About giving technology a go next year

[minimoke]

Happy days, seem like a while since SP has had a 9 in front

[sb9]

Happy days, seem like a while since SP has had a 9 in front

Nearly forgot when was the last time sp had 9 handle in front....seem like a distant memory.

[BlackPeter]

Nearly forgot when was the last time sp had 9 handle in front....seem like a distant memory.

It closed October 23 at $9.16 (and reached the weeks after still several times above $9). Not that long ago - short memory?

[sb9]

It closed October 23 at $9.16 (and reached the weeks after still several times above $9). Not that long ago - short memory?

Knew that, no short memory here...the trading pattern just felt like that.

[sb9]

Looks like the assault is on to claim $10 handle...

[Beagle]

Good to see a decent sort of recovery.

[sb9]

Finally managed to listen ASM audio clip today.

My thoughts...

New CEO Leon does come across very genuine and down to earth sort of guy. Seem pretty straight up and no-nonsense kind of person. From what I heard from his presentation, I'm quite happy and he has got vision for Synlait that'll transition company from dependence on one larger customer in A2 currently to finding new customers in new categories. Very positive thinking for future vision.

Explained in detail why they've acquired cheese factory and benefits arising out of that plant, not just for cheese for value addition to other milk and milk related products. Business case for buying that plant was for its modern facilities that were readily available (hint-may use it for any future plans around making other products not just cheese).

Heard the word "Disruptor" and "Disruptive" lot of times during his presentation.

One negative for me is may be its time for current Chair Greame to move on....and also David Hearn for A2 to move one as well.

[peat]

Good to see a decent sort of recovery.

very relieving
I may soon break even
but its pretty clear to me who adds the real value in this symbiotic relationship with A2M

[minimoke]

very relieving
I may soon break even
but its pretty clear to me who adds the real value in this symbiotic relationship with A2MIts a while since I've been able to hum this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJOjTNuuEVw

[Beagle]

Its a while since I've been able to hum this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJOjTNuuEVw
Thanks mate. I enjoyed that :)

[BigBob]

Anyone notice that it closed at AU$8.76 on the ASX...? Up almost 5%.... Something up or did someone press the wrong button...?

[allfromacell]

It seems the knife has stopped falling on Synlait and the SP has started trending up. The 4th most picked stock in the competition this year, I've already got enough from catching the knife but for those who have don't like buying in downtrends now might be a good time to get in?

[Nasi Goreng]

Technically, the 100 day moving average has been a really good indicator for a few years. It bounced off it in the last down trend 2015 and many times on its way up through 2018. It’s still below that so if it goes above say $10.30?? It might be a good buy signal.

If you like SML long term then you can buy at any time, I’ve held for about 4 years through the ups and downs of the sp. During that time they have loaded up their existing plant and executed their business plan really well. This has enabled them to grow cash, reduce debt and to invest again which is really exciting.

Long term happy shareholder.

[minimoke]

It seems the knife has stopped falling on Synlait and the SP has started trending up. The 4th most picked stock in the competition this year, I've already got enough from catching the knife but for those who have don't like buying in downtrends now might be a good time to get in?
Given its trend against ATM now would indeed be a good time to get in.

[IAK]

Good stuff - Synlait Milk's registration of its Dunsandel plant in the South Island has been renewed by Chinese authorities for another four years. http://nzh.tw/12188945

[minimoke]

Nice to see SML hitting $9.58 today. Onwards and upwards again.

[sl234]

Yes finally some upwards movement. Onwards and upwards!

[sl234]

On a different note, I know that the USA tariffs on china and v.v will have an influence on synlait, but how and why will it do so?
Cheers,
sl

[Ggcc]

Two more cents we can do this $10 thing come on haha. Just then it turned $10 per share

[hardt]

On a different note, I know that the USA tariffs on china and v.v will have an influence on synlait, but how and why will it do so?
Cheers,
sl

All sentiment no substance

[BlackPeter]

On a different note, I know that the USA tariffs on china and v.v will have an influence on synlait, but how and why will it do so?
Cheers,
sl


All sentiment no substance

Not so sure about sentiment - I guess it is all about risk, and this risk is clearly substantially.

Synlait makes currently a significant part of its fat margins by selling A2 milk formula directly and indirectly into China (including Daigou). If these sales channels are for whatever reason interrupted or impaired than Synlaits profitabilty would at least short and midterm (until they open other markets) take a significant dip.

If you want to know how an US - Chinese trade war can impair these trade channels, than just have a look at our aluminium producer. Despite not being Chinese did Trump decide to slap a 25% tariff on all foreign producers unless their governments know which of Trumps buttons to press. Our government didn't know and therefore all our aluminium (and steel) qualifies for Trumps tradewar tariffs.

Now - just imagine the Chinese do the same as the US and slap a high tariff on (e.g.) all imported agricultural products. Do you think it would make a difference to SML if either the Chinese consumers would need to pay 25% more on our premium products (and therefore buy less) - or alternatively if Synlait would need to take a huge cut on its margins to keep prices in China competitive?

I think it would.

The other problem is a bit more generic. Any tradewar is taking money out of the economy of our customers. If consumers need to pay more for cars, petrol and similar imports, than maybe they can't afford anymore to buy the Synlait A2 formula for $50 per pop. They might just save money by buying a Chinese product instead. Less revenue for Synlait.

[44wishlists]

... imagine the Chinese do the same as the US and slap a high tariff on (e.g.) all imported agricultural products...



This will not happen. Simple as that. Chinese food and drug products are constantly having trouble. Consumer confidence in these products are totally burnt, especially to their precious little baby. I would be more concerned about the declining birth rate.

[BlackPeter]

This will not happen. Simple as that. Chinese food and drug products are constantly having trouble. Consumer confidence in these products are totally burnt, especially to their precious little baby. I would be more concerned about the declining birth rate.

Lets face it - feeding babies with milk formula produced half a world away is a quite expensive luxury. Not more, not less. Humanity (including the Chinese) developed quite well without this nonsense.

There is no need at all for the Chinese to buy our or anybody elses foreign milk formula - and I am sure if the Chinese government wants to stop this practise, they will manage to do so quite fast.

The overwhelming majority of babies all over the world is fed from local sources (including breast feeding). It is possible. Not saying that the Chinese will stop using our milk formula tomorrow or next year, but I find it difficult to understand how anybody can exclude this (for the Chinese) quite sensible option. Would save them plenty of money ...

And yes, while they did have some food safety concerns in China, so they did in other parts of the world (e.g. UK - mad cow disease, Austria - blending wine with Glycol, Italy - blending wine with blood, Spain - blending olive oil with mineral oil, Australia and NZ - spiking strawberries with metal pins).

There are all over the world and in all cultures crooks who are happy to risk other peoples lives to make a quick dollar or for some other reason, but this never results in permanent consumer abstinence from a certain product. At best the respective government increases controls ... and the Chinese are pretty good in investigating food safety scandals and punishing the culprits. None of the crooks repeated his/her crime after receiving capital punishment.

[Beagle]

Just broken above the 100 day MA which is encouraging.

[Ggcc]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12195289

Nice little article

[winner69]

Not good for farmers but it’s good for Synlait ...isn’t it?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SML/329855/294101.pdf

[peat]

Not good for farmers but it’s good for Synlait ...isn’t it?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SML/329855/294101.pdf

yes thats what we learnt from Fonterra. So I guess its the same.

[Sideshow Bob]

yes thats what we learnt from Fonterra. So I guess its the same.

They are in a procurement market, so have to pay relative to the competition. In their patch they have Fonterra, Westland and Oceania - but supply relations are a bit sticky in that you need a truck up your driveway every day to collect milk and for a coop you need to have a significant amount invested in shares. Bit different to livestock where farmers often play the field, especially with excess capacity most of the year. I would expect many Synlait suppliers would own at least a few shares.

Westland have been really struggling. Fonterra, well they are Fonterra - enough said. So why pay over the odds?

Generally has been growing supply/volumes, so they just have to position themselves relative to the competition, for a volume/supply of what they need. Just need to be competitive.....

[Beagle]

Not good for farmers but it’s good for Synlait ...isn’t it?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SML/329855/294101.pdf


Yes it is. As others have pointed out all they need to do is be competitive and pay a bit more than Fonterror.
They've done amazingly well over the last 10 years and unlike ATM with Geoff Babbage resigning at least John Penno is staying on as a Director so they still have access to his quite considerable abilities. Then there's the lack of Herdlicker giving shareholders a good licking every so often so I prefer this over ATM.
Holding for 5 years is very much "on trend" at the moment so one wonders how this will grow over the next 5 years ?

[BlackPeter]

Funny trading yesterday (SP dropping despite ATM going up) and today (no volume and huge gap between best bid and lowest offer). Feels like somebody played yesterday a game and clear out any stop losses. Good method to accumulate at a low price ...

Anyway - SP still in upwards trading channel - must be all good.

[minimoke]

(no volume and huge gap between best bid and lowest offer).You'll see this quite often. Cant explain why

[Beagle]

I did a small top up yesterday FWIW which isn't much. My form lately...nobody should follow this dog. SELL lol

[couta1]

Getting smoked by A2.

[pg0220]

I wasn't quite sure why their SP was getting smashed after an announcement for lower milk price forecast. I thought lower milk price meant lower costs for SML therefore higher margin for them and it was a good news for the holders. Please excuse my ignorance and correct me if I am wrong!

[BlackPeter]

I wasn't quite sure why their SP was getting smashed after an announcement for lower milk price forecast. I thought lower milk price meant lower costs for SML therefore higher margin for them and it was a good news for the holders. Please excuse my ignorance and correct me if I am wrong!

Milk price dows not really matter to them - they are basically paid for the throughput they have. As long as they make sure that their condiitions are more attractive for farmers, than Fonterra's (and this is not difficult), as long as farmers can survive on whatever price they pay and as long as they don't overpay farmers, the actual milk price is of no concern to them. If world markets pay more for their product, they can increase milk payout to farmers, and if world market prices drop, they reduce their payout. Simple as that.

[sl234]

Thanks for the replies previously guys, great points from each side.
It's intriguing that atm price is holding steady, while synlait seems to have tumbled.
Any ideas as to how this has happened?
sl

[Beagle]

Maybe its simply an obvious opportunity ? Its been a long time since ATM and SML were about $3.75 apart. Their fortunes seem inextricably linked to me and SML on a much cheaper PE and with a more diverse product mix with very clearly defined growth path's.
Opportunity knocks ?

[BlackPeter]

Thanks for the replies previously guys, great points from each side.
It's intriguing that atm price is holding steady, while synlait seems to have tumbled.
Any ideas as to how this has happened?
sl

Hard to say. While the fortunes of ATM and SML are obviously linked to a degree, their earnings capacity might be not?

if everythings goes to plan for ATM only the sky is the limit (not saying this is the case, but given that they are basically just a marketing company, they are easily scaleable - unlimited growth potential).

For SML on the other hand it is difficult to keep growing that fast. Sure - they doubled their manufacturing capacity last year (by going from 1 to 2 factories). Are they doubling this year again (by building 2 more factories)? Obviously not, i.e. their growth willl rapidly drop.

Maybe the market considers these days a forward PE of 16.5 as expensive for a company with limited future growth. Who knows? ... as indicated on another thread, the market is not very good in valuing companies and it is terrible in predicting future share prices, but so are most of us ;).

[minimoke]

Pokeno plant construction on target. Test runs due August / September https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/110315409/synlait-pokeno-factory-on-track-for-completion-this-spring

[Sideshow Bob]

Pokeno plant construction on target. Test runs due August / September https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/110315409/synlait-pokeno-factory-on-track-for-completion-this-spring

Would be interesting how many of those Waikato farmers are A2, or in the process of converting....??

[Beagle]

Pokeno plant construction on target. Test runs due August / September https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/110315409/synlait-pokeno-factory-on-track-for-completion-this-spring

Very good news that everything is on track and I really liked the comment that there's plenty of room for expansion of the facility down the track. Collection within 150 km's radius is basically all of the Waikato.

[freddagg]

Thanks for the replies previously guys, great points from each side.
It's intriguing that atm price is holding steady, while synlait seems to have tumbled.
Any ideas as to how this has happened?
sl

Dairy factories are just big boxes full of stainless steel. Easy to replicate, and since the townies have decided farmers are not allowed any more cows there are already too many factories.
On the other hand ATM has developed an enormously powerful brand that would be very difficult to replicate.
One bears no correlation with the other.

[couta1]

Dairy factories are just big boxes full of stainless steel. Easy to replicate, and since the townies have decided farmers are not allowed any more cows there are already too many of them.
On the other hand ATM has developed an enormously powerful brand that would be very difficult to replicate.
One bears no correlation with the other. Exactly, ATM has global expansion potential, SML does not.

[peat]

Dairy factories are just big boxes full of stainless steel. Easy to replicate, and since the townies have decided farmers are not allowed any more cows there are already too many of them.
On the other hand ATM has developed an enormously powerful brand that would be very difficult to replicate.
One bears no correlation with the other.

But ATM's brand relies on Synlait having Chinese certified boxes of stainless steel which I'm not at all sure are easy to replicate. I also seem to recall some contractor going under which could well have delayed the making of those easy to replicate stainless steel boxes but Synlaits management had done a smart thing and werent affected (or if so would be compensated)

Obviously the relationship between these two companies is symbiotic but my view is that ATM needs Synlait more than the other way round.

[minimoke]

Obviously the relationship between these two companies is symbiotic but my view is that ATM needs Synlait more than the other way round.
ATM also has Fonterra (and a boatload of cash)

[peat]

ATM also has Fonterra (and a boatload of cash)

Yeh thanks for posting the article earlier MM - good to know for sure

Can money buy you Chinese Certified A2 milk though.
I dont think Fonterra make much of the stuff as yet.

[minimoke]

Can money buy you Chinese Certified A2 milk though.
.I'm not one to cast aspersions on the Chinese but...............

[freddagg]

Yeh thanks for posting the article earlier MM - good to know for sure

Can money buy you Chinese Certified A2 milk though.
I dont think Fonterra make much of the stuff as yet.

About half the milk produced in NZ is A2. Just a matter of separating from A1, not that hard

[minimoke]

About half the milk produced in NZ is A2. Just a matter of separating from A1, not that hardIts cows that produce A2. According to guru Keith Woodford "
LIC advice, based on DNA information held within their national database, is that 44 percent of New Zealand Friesians are A2, 53 percent of Kiwi Cross are A2, and about 66 percent of Jerseys are A2". An interesting article her :https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2018/03/13/a2-herd-conversion-strategies/

[Beagle]

But ATM's brand relies on Synlait having Chinese certified boxes of stainless steel which I'm not at all sure are easy to replicate. I also seem to recall some contractor going under which could well have delayed the making of those easy to replicate stainless steel boxes but Synlaits management had done a smart thing and werent affected (or if so would be compensated)

Obviously the relationship between these two companies is symbiotic but my view is that ATM needs Synlait more than the other way round.

I can see the day when ATM makes a 1:1 scrip based takeover. Just a matter of time I reckon.

[freddagg]

Its cows that produce A2.


Obviously. I wasn't talking about goats although I think they all produce A2

[peat]

About half the milk produced in NZ is A2. Just a matter of separating from A1, not that hard

not that hard? From what I understand it requires separation at every stage of the farming and milking process.

[BlackPeter]

But ATM's brand relies on Synlait having Chinese certified boxes of stainless steel which I'm not at all sure are easy to replicate. I also seem to recall some contractor going under which could well have delayed the making of those easy to replicate stainless steel boxes but Synlaits management had done a smart thing and werent affected (or if so would be compensated)

Obviously the relationship between these two companies is symbiotic but my view is that ATM needs Synlait more than the other way round.

No doubt Synlait will continue to do well. It is just - to justify the current SP you need to plan for a large amount of future growth ... and this is more difficult to implement with a bricks, mortar and stainless steel company - it is just not that scalable.

I am sure the current factories will be fine and deliver for a long time ... but are they really worth a PE of above 16?

[Sideshow Bob]

No doubt Synlait will continue to do well. It is just - to justify the current SP you need to plan for a large amount of future growth ... and this is more difficult to implement with a bricks, mortar and stainless steel company - it is just not that scalable.

I am sure the current factories will be fine and deliver for a long time ... but are they really worth a PE of above 16?

In this article https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12195289 (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12195289)posted about a week or so ago, Graeme Milne says:


"Milne told the market Synlait should post a "substantial" increase in profit for the 2019 financial year but that the scale of the rise won't be in the same league as last year's 89 per cent."


So on a forward PE based on the 2019 FY, they might be much better. If say 50% increase, then their PE might come down to around 11. They are about halfway through the full year now, so would have a good guide and probably enough forward sales/orders on the books. Also more stainless coming on stream in Pokeno, but expected still some time away, especially before it makes an impact on profitability.

Scalable is a tricky one though, isn't it. Look at Tatua, stuck to its knitting and not gone along the volume growth path, which has served shareholders well to date. But if they were the same size as Fonterra, then no doubt would be a different story.

[Beagle]

Looks like good value for a growth stock to me with a clearly articulated and defined growth path across multiple products both with ATM and others.
Better differentiated than ATM with its products = lower risk in my book and in terms of forward metrics it looks significantly more compelling and then there's the best bit of all, no herd licker involvement lol

[Ggcc]

This one is sneaking up nicely in $9.33 AU. Guess we will nice a nice price tomorrow in NZ

[777]

This one is sneaking up nicely in $9.33 AU. Guess we will nice a nice price tomorrow in NZ


$9.56 now after hitting $9.60

6.8% so far today.

[carrom74]

$9.56 now after hitting $9.60

6.8% so far today.
Is this the highest intraday jump? 6.8% awesome!

[Ggcc]

Is this the highest intraday jump? 6.8% awesome!
Looking forward to tomorrow but it all depends on what USA (Trump) do tomorrow which will be their today........ quite the conundrum

[minimoke]

Is this the highest intraday jump? 6.8% awesome!Closed up 7.3% at AUD $9.6

[minimoke]

And opened today at 9.85. Noice!

[bull....]

just goes to show how silly the volume is on the nzx. 1000 shares traded for a 8% jump lol

[winner69]

And opened today at 9.85. Noice!

Solid recovery back to where it was a week or so ago

One day it’ll stay over 10 bucks

[minimoke]

just goes to show how silly the volume is on the nzx. 1000 shares traded for a 8% jump lolIts only reflecting what happened on the ASX yesterday

[777]

just goes to show how silly the volume is on the nzx. 1000 shares traded for a 8% jump lol


Keep up bull.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

As well as ASX traded 7.3% increase yesterday on 45095 shares Stuff has an article out on the Pokeno Factory project.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/110315409/synlait-pokeno-factory-on-track-for-completion-this-spring

[Beagle]

Great long term hold...just look at how well they've done over the last 10 years !
As boring as watching grass grow but boring is good !

[minimoke]

I wonder whose milk powder this was? https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2019/02/highway-horror-truck-driver-s-lucky-escape-after-trailer-catches-fire.html

[Sideshow Bob]

I wonder whose milk powder this was? https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2019/02/highway-horror-truck-driver-s-lucky-escape-after-trailer-catches-fire.html

I think (but absolutely not sure) that it was Fonterra's.

The fire service said the milk powder did burn "Surprisingly well!" :p

Summerland have a shocking record of late. Last thing they'd want is to be in the news - yet again.

[peat]

Yes Synlait may well be a long term hold, but then again, it might not - if certain things were to occur. I do hope it is though now that I've reset my exposure.
I've been a bit overexposed and on the losing side of the ledger and so I've used todays rally to lighten up a bit.

Interesting possibilities on how to view this trade from an accounting perspective
The parcel I sold today I actually bought a dollar cheaper so does this count as making a profit if my average price is higher than both of those figures. I don't really consider that I did. A smallish loss is the way I view it still based on my overall average price. So I've effectively set my average price back higher but for me now a better portfolio % level. But the trade itself was beneficial to my account of course. But on balance portfolio still down on SML.

I'm confused lol

10301
https://goo.gl/images/koS8va

[minimoke]

$9.98!! will we see $10.00 this week. Great to see the milky treats back on the boil again.

[minimoke]

$9.98!! will we see $10.00 this week. Great to see the milky treats back on the boil again.ASX got to AUD$9.56 or NZD$10.06. NZX couldn't quite keep up but we've closed on $9.95

[sb9]

ASX got to AUD$9.56 or NZD$10.06. NZX couldn't quite keep up but we've closed on $9.95

Our close price is $9.70.

[777]

Our close price is $9.70.

Correct...

[BlackPeter]

Our close price is $9.70.


Correct...

I assume MM refers to the two off market transactions which went through after market close with 9.95.

[minimoke]

I assume MM refers to the two off market transactions which went through after market close with 9.95.

That's the one

[minimoke]

Rumour has it the man with the key to the Rocket Launcher has left the ATM pad and is now wandering over to the SML one.

[Beagle]

Rumour has it the man with the key to the Rocket Launcher has left the ATM pad and is now wandering over to the SML one.

Nice image mate, thanks for sharing. Pretty clear correlation there that's broken down for no apparent reason recently. Opportunity appears to knock.

[minimoke]

Did a bit of a recon on my weekedn trip down south and Stopped at Talbot Cheese (our latest purchase). It in the heart of teh tourist mecca, Geraldine and strategicllay located in the tourist mall behind the public toilets.

Its a funny wee place and I cant imagine why it is being bought. The cheese is delicious and I ended up buying a bit (so that will help their books look good) but really its essentially the size of a corner dairy, selling cheeses, ice cream and Prenzels liquor along with a few other bits and bobs. Two people behind the counter so I asked if teh cheese was from A1 or A2 milk. She said it was locally sourced and a bit vague but settled for A1.

Heres a photo of teh manufacturing facility ( I think its the only one they have) and it doesnt look like its scalable. Maybe there is just a huge margin in cheese and SML have too much cash kicking around

[kiwi_crusader]

Talbot cheese manufacturing plant is in Temuka with a specialty cheese factory next door. They put out a huge volume of grated cheese for Bidfoods nation wide and other wholesalers as well as fancy cheeses.
Looks like they will soon be supplying Foodstuffs with their home brand cheese like Synlait is with their milk.

[minimoke]

Ah yes. 1 tonne out of Geraldine, 50 out of Temuka. My bad.

[BlackPeter]

Ah yes. 1 tonne out of Geraldine, 50 out of Temuka. My bad.

From memory - the new CEO called the aquisition (in response to a question) in the last AGM "opportunistic". It sounds like the price was right - and it helps them as well to optimise the utilisation of their truck fleet. Apparantly delivering to and from the factory helps them to reduces the number of empty tours they otherwise would have to make.

Not a strategic purchase, but a nice little earner / saver.

[sb9]

Couldn't help but top up at the open this morning. No reason why this should be less than $10 imo on back of what A2 has just delivered.

[minimoke]

Couldn't help but top up at the open this morning. No reason why this should be less than $10 imo on back of what A2 has just delivered.$10.00 hit at 10:39, Currently $9.99.

[Chanchay]

Couldn't help but top up at the open this morning. No reason why this should be less than $10 imo on back of what A2 has just delivered.

Agree. I've doubled down today. Im expecting good things next month.

[whatsup]

What is the Aussie code for SML

[777]

Sm1 ........

[whatsup]

What is the Aussie code for SML

SM1, gotit !

[Beagle]

I am expecting good things when Synlait report in due course, (ATM infant milk powder sales were well above SML's production forecast issued some time back), and I really like the fact that their new facility in Pokeno is both proceeding to plan but also easily scale-able and has a catchment area of 150 km's which basically covers all of the highly productive Waikato area. Very happy to hold this long term and I am expecting very good growth for the foreseeable future. Disc: I added a few more today.

[minimoke]

I am expecting good things when Synlait report in due course, (ATM infant milk powder sales were well above SML's production forecast issued some time back), and I really like the fact that their new facility in Pokeno is both proceeding to plan but also easily scale-able and has a catchment area of 150 km's which basically covers all of the highly productive Waikato area. .Which is going to make it a bit harder for farmers to decide to go with SML or Fonterra with their A2 supply. I reckon SML with their values and track record will be more appealing.

[Beagle]

Fonterror's track record truly is shocking and abysmal. A complete no brainer decision if you ask me.

[BlackPeter]

Fonterror's track record truly is shocking and abysmal. A complete no brainer decision if you ask me.

... and don't forget that any supplier to Fonterror must hold their shares, binding up a lot of capital they certainly could use better otherwise (like improve their farm or buy Synlait shares instead). Synlait suppiers are not required to hold Synlait shares (though they may and probably want to :);

Why would anybody want to supply milk to the Fonterror monster if they don't have to ...

[Beagle]

... and don't forget that any supplier to Fonterror must hold their shares, binding up a lot of capital they certainly could use better otherwise (like improve their farm or buy Synlait shares instead). Synlait suppiers are not required to hold Synlait shares (though they may and probably want to :);

Why would anybody want to supply milk to the Fonterror monster if they don't have to ...

I think its safe to assume that's a rhetorical question :)

[minimoke]

Just a reminder that ATM has 31m shares in SML. So when SML goes up so does ATM. Thanks SML - thats added another $31m to ATM's value over the last couple of months.

[winner69]

Just a reminder that ATM has 31m shares in SML. So when SML goes up so does ATM. Thanks SML - thats added another $31m to ATM's value over the last couple of months.

Did you note the $69m loss ATM made on their listed investments in their half year.

Just as well A2 don’t count these ups and downs in the ‘Profit after tax’ eh

What did A2 pay for the last lot of shares?

[minimoke]

Did you note the $69m loss ATM made on their listed investments in their half year.

Just as well A2 don’t count these ups and downs in the ‘Profit after tax’ eh

What did A2 pay for those shares?
Yes I saw that - accounts as at december dont reflect the recent nice uptick.

More importantly - how will we value our shares in light of a CGT. Valuation Day will be interesting.

[BlackPeter]

Yes I saw that - accounts as at december dont reflect the recent nice uptick.

More importantly - how will we value our shares in light of a CGT. Valuation Day will be interesting.

Probably not the right thread ... but valueing shares for CGT would be one of smallest problems :); Just pick the closing price at the day.
Try to value instead any unlisted business or property or piece of art or stamp collection ... Thats' where the fun would come in ;);

[winner69]

A2 did buy their first 8% odd at just over $3

[minimoke]

Folks bored over at ATM. Now powering up SML. Good to see it at $10.20. Onwards and upwards

[Beagle]

Folks bored over at ATM. Now powering up SML. Good to see it at $10.20. Onwards and upwards

New rating for Synlait, BBB. Beagle busy buying :)

[minimoke]

Nice to see SML starting to play the old parity catch up game. Up another 4% today to $10.76 at the moment.

[sb9]

Nice to see SML starting to play the old parity catch up game. Up another 4% today to $10.76 at the moment.

Yes, looks like some big boys are doing the heavy lifting since last week. And that's my quickest 10% gain (paper) from my latest top up last week.

[Beagle]

This little spurt a bit higher is just the very start in my opinion and this remains compelling value for a high growth stock. I think we should easily eclipse $15 within 2 years...remember the dog barked it first. Patient pups will be getting a lot of milk.

[sb9]

Looks like we're on course to break the $11 mark very soon...

[Chanchay]

This little spurt a bit higher is just the very start in my opinion and this remains compelling value for a high growth stock. I think we should easily eclipse $15 within 2 years...remember the dog barked it first. Patient pups will be getting a lot of milk.

I think this may even be a conservative estimate. This whole industry has significant tail winds. I think a pe of 25 with the demonstrated growth is more than reasonable. Looking forward to results in three weeks.

[JayRiggs]

I missed out on A2 and really regret it. So I jumped onto the SML train today. Looking forward to the ride to $15! :-)

[winner69]

I missed out on A2 and really regret it. So I jumped onto the SML train today. Looking forward to the ride to $15! :-)

Hope you made right choice

I would have stuck with A2 .....I reckon A2 will still achieve superior returns over the next 2 to 3 years than Synlait

[allfromacell]

Hope you made right choice

I would have stuck with A2 .....I reckon A2 will still achieve superior returns over the next 2 to 3 years than Synlait


I think Synlait could surprise due to it having a lot fewer issued shares but still fantastic EPS growth outlook. Why not own both :).

[minimoke]

Hope you made right choice

I would have stuck with A2 .....I reckon A2 will still achieve superior returns over the next 2 to 3 years than SynlaitI'll provide a benchmark. As at today I'm up 58.6% with ATM and 33.5% wth SML (over a bit more than a year).

At this point there doesn't appear to be a reason to trigger stop losses so we can see where we are in a few years time.

[JayRiggs]

Hope you made right choice

I would have stuck with A2 .....I reckon A2 will still achieve superior returns over the next 2 to 3 years than Synlait

Yeah would like to get A2, but I found it easier to buy SML with a PE of 25.7 compared to ATM's PE of 42.9
Maybe on a big pullback I'll get A2.

[minimoke]

Maybe on a big pullback I'll get A2.I'm thinking that particular train has left the station - many risk factors now resolved

[couta1]

I'm thinking that particular train has left the station - many risk factors now resolved Dont count on it, any bit of negative sentiment and the bots take control again.

[minimoke]

Dont count on it, any bit of negative sentiment and the bots take control again.A pull back yes. A big pull back not so. Big - being relative

[alex f]

9 month trading update 15 May 2018 sunk the SP (atm)

[winner69]

At another place somebody said www.simplywall.st has the value of Synlait future cash flows at $27.28 a share

Wow

[Hectorplains]

At another place somebody said www.simplywall.st (http://www.simplywall.st) has the value of Synlait future cash flows at $27.28

Wow

"In short, the circumstances of time, context and perspective are like delicate filaments that connect the economic actor to the world. We risk destroying these filaments with too many aggregates, abstractions and models divorced from reality. " (https://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/y2010/Borderssubjectivity.html)

[winner69]

"In short, the circumstances of time, context and perspective are like delicate filaments that connect the economic actor to the world. We risk destroying these filaments with too many aggregates, abstractions and models divorced from reality. " (https://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/y2010/Borderssubjectivity.html)

Nice quote hector

Some might say that using P/E ratios to ‘value’ stocks is rather abstract and divorced from reality

[couta1]

At another place somebody said www.simplywall.st (http://www.simplywall.st) has the value of Synlait future cash flows at $27.28 a share

Wow Simply wall street valuations are basically crap and the trusty coin toss would serve one better.

[pg0220]

If the new CEO gave a very conservative growth outlook given it is his first year, it is possible that SML gives an excellent result for the last HY and given the ATM's fantastic result, I don't see why this should not be possible. But I have to admit that ATM's valuation will always be much higher than SML's valuation due to different nature of business.

[Beagle]

Analysts average views on market screener have eps of both companies growing at the same rate in the foreseeable future. SML at just under half the PE ratio and with a more diversified product mix looks like a much safer bet on this growth sector. I agree that the official production forecast (in light of the recent ATM result) is now looking quite conservative and am looking forward to the result and revised forecast.

[nzsharetrade]

please remind me when Pokeno facility was planned to complete for production?

[Beagle]

please remind me when Pokeno facility was planned to complete for production?

July / August 2019 from memory.

[couta1]

July / August 2019 from memory. Maybe they could invite the Herd woman as a guest speaker for the commisioning as that should coincide with her next share sell down.Lol

[nzsharetrade]

Maybe they could invite the Herd woman as a guest speaker for the commisioning as that should coincide with her next share sell down.Lol


hahah, I dont really think this sell out would be as bad as last time. she has given her notice long enough ........

[minimoke]

July / August 2019 from memory.
And all going to plan for commissioning early spring. Excellent!

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/110315409/synlait-pokeno-factory-on-track-for-completion-this-spring

[Beagle]

And all going to plan for commissioning early spring. Excellent!

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/110315409/synlait-pokeno-factory-on-track-for-completion-this-spring

I really like the last bit "There's plenty of room for expansion so we can keep adding adjacent dryers or other equipment as we need to."

[minimoke]

I really like the last bit "There's plenty of room for expansion so we can keep adding adjacent dryers or other equipment as we need to."And if they end up short a bob or two to expand they have major shareholders with loads of cash looking for a home.

[Beagle]

And if they end up short a bob or two to expand they have major shareholders with loads of cash looking for a home.

True that. One might be forgiven looking at this chart for thinking the SP is resuming its upwards trendline after a decent correction. Pretty encouraging TA 10372

[minimoke]

Only 14 more sleeps before santa delivers a bigger SP.

[RupertBear]

The Bear has been greedy and had a wee feed of these over the last few days, SML is now my biggest holding :eek2: OMG I may have to go into early hibernation and hopefully all will be well when I wake up again :D

[couta1]

The Bear has been greedy and had a wee feed of these over the last few days, SML is now my biggest holding :eek2: OMG I may have to go into early hibernation and hopefully all will be well when I wake up again :D Ditto, looks like we are in tune RB along with a barking Beagle but please keep it a secret.

[winner69]

Ditto, looks like we are in tune RB along with a barking Beagle but please keep it a secret.

Good to see you guys all confident again and doing some speculating

[RupertBear]

Good to see you guys all confident again and doing some speculating

Oh thats harsh Winner! :eek2:

speculation definition: the activity of guessing possible answers to a question without having enough information to be certain

Hmm ok Winner you might be right :mellow: gulp

[Beagle]

Yeap. I invested more today for long term growth. Brokers eps growth forecasts look pretty conservative to me and I am expecting multiple upgrades over the next few years https://www.marketscreener.com/SYNLAIT-MILK-LTD-14391761/financials/

[winner69]

Oh thats harsh Winner! :eek2:

speculation definition: the activity of guessing possible answers to a question without having enough information to be certain

Hmm ok Winner you might be right :mellow: gulp

Neighbour asked me today what’s everybody talking about / what’s the hot stock at the moment. I think he and his bowling mates have had enough of holding Turners and Oceania

I didn’t mention Synlait ...lucky for you.

[RupertBear]

Yikes that would have been the kiss of death for sure! Phew lucky escape, no worries now eh :cool:

[peat]

SM1 into the All Ordinaries from the 19/3

[winner69]

SM1 into the All Ordinaries from the 19/3

Cool .....another $1 or so onto the share price :):D:t_up:;)

[Beagle]

SM1 into the All Ordinaries from the 19/3

Noice :t_up:

[minimoke]

Could be an interesting few weeks as market comet to terms with report and index rebalancing. Happy camper here sitting on sideline watching with my wad of SML in hand.

[nzsharetrade]

always feel like no one is selling or buying with SML.....

[minimoke]

always feel like no one is selling or buying with SML.....I think traders must be men and can only concentrate on one thing at a time. And concentration is on ATM. Just wait until till the attention turns.

[Beagle]

Bell Potter in Australia have a A$12.75 (NZ$13.20) 12 month price target and BUY recommendation.

My rating BBBB (Beagle Been Busy Buying) My target $15 in 24 months.

[limmy]

20th March is when they report their interim results and we'll see if these predictions are accurate.

[winner69]

Bell Potter in Australia have a A$12.75 (NZ$13.20) 12 month price target and BUY recommendation.

My rating BBBB (Beagle Been Busy Buying) My target $15 in 24 months.

That’s good ...Bell Potter the Harbour Wealth of Australia

Love the phrase Bell Potter use when they rave about A2 and Synlait - Two companies, one dream

[minimoke]

Oh, they are a tease. Just got my email inviting me to the Interim Results webcast at 10.00. Results released to market at 8.30 on the 20Th. Not many sleeps now!

[cymonger]

Oh, they are a tease. Just got my email inviting me to the Interim Results webcast at 10.00. Results released to market at 8.30 on the 20Th. Not many sleeps now!


Great couple of days. Feel like that "about to hear some good things" vibe is in the air now as we get closer to reporting. Enjoying watching that unrealized profit column grow significantly the last two days.

[Beagle]

I don't know about you guys but I've already organised some fresh beverage supplies for next week :t_up:

[minimoke]

Great couple of days. Feel like that "about to hear some good things" vibe is in the air now as we get closer to reporting. Enjoying watching that unrealized profit column grow significantly the last two days.It might be time for a picture!

[King1212]

Just to remind all...this baby will be added in S&P on 18th march....

[nzsharetrade]

Just to remind all...this baby will be added in S&P on 18th march....

ASX 200?? I still remember the days when ATM joined the MSCI....

[Chanchay]

Just to remind all...this baby will be added in S&P on 18th march....

Hi king, which Index are you referring to? Forgive my ignorance

[minimoke]

Hi king, which Index are you referring to? Forgive my ignoranceAll Ordinaries Index

[Chanchay]

All Ordinaries Index

Thanks much, exciting times, overweight on SML, hoping for good things come Wednesday

[King1212]

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190308/pdf/4439t1b5w1mvvs.pdf

[Beagle]

All Ordinaries Index

GNE also getting added to all ordinaries on ASX. Exciting times...I just added to that one as well.

[Raz]

Should be okay for now however management on this one concerns me.

[BlackPeter]

Should be okay for now however management on this one concerns me.

What do you mean? Experienced and successful team - only unknown in my view is the new CEO ...

[Tyrion]

What do you mean? Experienced and successful team - only unknown in my view is the new CEO ...
I agree.
Hi to all, this is my first post.

[Chanchay]

I agree.
Hi to all, this is my first post.

Welcome Tyrion. Nice to have you join us

[winner69]

What do you mean? Experienced and successful team - only unknown in my view is the new CEO ...

Senior management a mix of old timers and several who have joined the Team in last year or so.

CEO — whatever way you look at it it would appear what he’s been in charge off have not been a roaring success. I have a theory that some leaders (CEOs) are not lucky or have good fortune favour them in their careers even though they may be fantastic managers and as such the companies they lead generally tend to disappoint. (Works the other way as well as some CEOs always seem lucky)

How ‘lucky’ the newish headhunted CEO is will determine Synlaits fortunes.

[sb9]

Looks on course to clinch $11 mark today with some help from big boys.

[sb9]

Are we there yet....

[Beagle]

Nice to see SML and SUM give me some much needed joy to close out the working week.

[RupertBear]

Yes a small positive on what has turned out to be a dreadful day in Christchurch. Words fail me. My thoughts are with all those affected by this henious act. :crying::(

[Beagle]

Yes a small positive on what has turned out to be a dreadful day in Christchurch. Words fail me. My thoughts are with all those affected by this henious act. :crying::(

I've only just caught up with the news. That is profoundly shocking.

[Chanchay]

I've only just caught up with the news. That is profoundly shocking.

An awful day. I am waiting in Auckland to fly to Christchurch on Jetstar, not travelling because of what happened, just a coincidence. Flights been delayed a number of hours, understandable noting the circumstances but reading the awful news for four hours is an unfortunate way to spend the evening.

There will be a heavy sadness in Christchurch but you can't let the terrorists win by cancelling plans !

[Chanchay]

An awful day. I am waiting in Auckland to fly to Christchurch on Jetstar, not travelling because of what happened, just a coincidence. Flights been delayed a number of hours, understandable noting the circumstances but reading the awful news for four hours is an unfortunate way to spend the evening.

There will be a heavy sadness in Christchurch but you can't let the terrorists win by cancelling plans !

Jetstar cancelled my flight for me after four hours of waiting. Never again

[minimoke]

Jetstar cancelled my flight for me after four hours of waiting. Never again
There is more to life than your ****ing travel plans. Get a grip and think of others