SML - Synlait Milk Ltd [Archive] - Page 7

Beagle

06-09-2018, 08:46 PM

Fair enough, one must call it as they see it. I agree that some of those stocks are overpriced at present but I am happy to hold AIR, ATM, HLG and SML as I see sound value (taking into the current ultra low interest rates and high market average PE).

The clearly defined strong growth path for FY19 and 20 and only a market average PE is what keeps me holding SML. Relative to the market I think there is still good value here but possibly a little better value SUM where else like OCA but possibly more modest growth with it.

winner69

06-09-2018, 08:49 PM

The Bible has a consensus target of $8.89 with a low value of $7.00. The analyst with $7.00 must one of those who just understand SML ...a bit like the poor abused Chris.

Won't use that Bible again .....obviously have to follow people with 'magination' like the one with a value of $11.70 - but as a target he/she is saying it's only valued at just north $10 today

Chris is quite a nice guy if one ever gets to meet him

percy

06-09-2018, 08:57 PM

Fair enough, one must call it as they see it. I agree that some of those stocks are overpriced at present but I am happy to hold AIR, HLG and SML as I see sound value (taking into the current ultra low interest rates and high market average PE).

Yes each to their own,and Chris Lee is right to point out his own , as well as "NZ's award-winning researchers" views.
Either you or Chris are right .
I wish you luck.
In the meantime I am more than happy going my own way.
It has worked for me,and I see no reason for it to stop working,in fact, I must say I am "well positioned."

Beagle

06-09-2018, 08:57 PM

The Bible has a consensus target of $8.89 with a low value of $7.00. The analyst with $7.00 must one of those who just understand SML ...a bit like the poor abused Chris.

Won't use that Bible again .....obviously have to follow people with 'magination'

Its not the Bible mate but it could be ancient manuscripts those research notes :) Market sees it differently. FWIW analyst average target price for RYM is only $10.60. Market sees it quite differently there too.
Average analyst price target for ATM before it reported was just $10.60. A few days later after it reported and beat average analyst forecast by just 2% the average price target became $12.80 a 21% increase.
With Synlait due to report on 19 Sept could it just be that some analysts will be dramatically updating what could be very old research notes , i.e. bring them into 2018 thinking with 2019 price targets, finally ?

I'll bet you a beer than the average analyst forecast jumps significantly after the FY18 result is announced later this month...i.e. they simply follow the market up with their price targets..oh my goodness, wash my mouth out they never do that do they ? Oh wait...I do recall that's exactly what happened with AIR a while back when analysts were horribly out of whack with the market. Its amazing how DCF valuations can change significantly if they tweak just one or two assumptions in their model isn't it !

I had an outstanding record year to 31 March 2018 Percy and this year is trucking along fine too so like you I have no reason to change my modus operandi either.
I'm not suggesting the professional analysts are idiots, not by any means, I simply think their research notes are out of date and like when their research said AIR was only worth $2.15 but the market said $2.90 I am more than happy to back my own judgement. Perhaps worth noting that all Chris Lee does is basically parrot the analysts view, not come up with his own which in my opinion makes his opinion piece almost worthless other than to point out how tightly held the company is which is common knowledge already anyway...

winner69

07-09-2018, 08:59 AM

Well, after an emotionally charged evening on this thread a new day has dawned.

I reckon the SML share price will perform well today to close the week out on a positive note.

bull....

07-09-2018, 09:24 AM

bull markets always produce a few market darlings subject to extreme enthusiam , normally when the party ends they get hit the hardest.

Beagle

07-09-2018, 09:38 AM

Average analyst forecast for FY19 (at this stage) is 51.9 cps, to be updated just after the company reports on 19 Sept. At $12.70 that puts SML on a forward FY19 PE of 24.5 times based on this research which may or may not be outdated. This is just a little above the NZX50 forward PE average and this for a company forecast to double its profit this year and grow strongly in the years ahead.
Happy holder and looking forward to the reporting day shortly. This is the top performer of the NZX50 this year with good reason in my opinion but I understand that some people will feel they have missed the boat and its too late to join the party now and that's fine. Each to their own...

I think it makes tremendous sense for ATM to try and take over SML at some stage soon and they'll probably have to pay in the late $teens to do it...but what would I know, that's probably my over active imagination at work again....bad dog...go on a holiday and be done with this for a while.

peat

07-09-2018, 12:31 PM

This is the top performer of the NZX50 this year with good reason in my opinion but I understand that some people will feel they have missed the boat and its too late to join the party now and that's fine. Each to their own...

Yes exactly that is how I feel - that I have missed the boat with the milk crowd - I was very tempted when SML went back to mid 10$ lately but never pulled the trigger. I'm very cautious about being a victim of FOMO, but may dip my toes in the milk on any retracement.

winner69

07-09-2018, 04:41 PM

Chris Lee said 'progress and value-add at SML and ATM has been astonishing.' and 'Both companies would appear near the beginning of any book entitled ‘’Great NZ Corporate Successes’’.'

That's pretty high praise

Bought a few more today

percy

07-09-2018, 04:48 PM

Do your bowling club mates drink A1 or A2 milk with their Kahlua.?

winner69

07-09-2018, 04:59 PM

Do your bowling club mates drink A1 or A2 milk with their Kahlua.?

My neighbours bowling club mates are not happy at moment --- they took their profits on ATM and put it into Turners.

I did remind him the other the they would have been about the same if they had held their ATM ...I made that up to cheer him up a bit.

percy

07-09-2018, 05:05 PM

My neighbours bowling club mates are not happy at moment --- they took their profits on ATM and put it into Turners.

I did remind him the other the they would have been about the same if they had held their ATM ...I made that up to cheer him up a bit.
They are getting wise.
In fact I think they are "well positioned."...…………….
Bet they love the quarterly fully imputed divies as much as I do.
Another one next month.

Patient Panda

07-09-2018, 05:34 PM

They are getting wise.
In fact I think they are "well positioned."...…………….
Bet they love the quarterly fully imputed divies as much as I do.
Another one next month.

I have not done much research on SML but the more research I do on ATM the more I think it fits your criteria Perc. It has a growth rate much higher than its PE which Jim slater would like. Also excellent ROE and plenty of cash in the bank.

percy

07-09-2018, 05:48 PM

I have not done much research on SML but the more research I do on ATM the more I think it fits your criteria Perc. It has a growth rate much higher than its PE which Jim slater would like. Also excellent ROE and plenty of cash in the bank.

Most probably suit younger investors than me.
I have been loading up on high fully imputed divided paying shares lately,but I guess I will have to find a home for the increasing divies…………………………...lol.

Ggcc

08-09-2018, 08:33 PM

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business-video/news/video.cfm?c_id=1503079&gal_cid=1503079&gallery_id=197803

winner69

09-09-2018, 03:29 PM

Synlait expected to earn $75m to $80m F18 which will be more than double what was made in F18

Company said that H2 earnings will be less than H1 and I hope the market doesn’t dwell on this. Can’t do much better than doubling profit can you.

F19 looking to be another strong year with earnings up 30% odd.

We’ll look back in years time and say jeez 13 bucks was cheap as

As Chris Lee said the other day Synlait deserves to be included in a book ‘Great NZ Company Successes’

winner69

09-09-2018, 04:21 PM

Average analyst forecast for FY19 (at this stage) is 51.9 cps, to be updated just after the company reports on 19 Sept. At $12.70 that puts SML on a forward FY19 PE of 24.5 times based on this research which may or may not be outdated. This is just a little above the NZX50 forward PE average and this for a company forecast to double its profit this year and grow strongly in the years ahead.

Happy holder and looking forward to the reporting day shortly. This is the top performer of the NZX50 this year with good reason in my opinion.

I think it makes tremendous sense for ATM to try and take over SML at some stage soon and they'll probably have to pay in the late $teens to do it...but what would I know, that's probably my over active imagination at work again....bad dog...go on a holiday and be done with this for a while.

Sep 19th not far away and it will be exciting day I reckon

Looks cheap even at $13.00

Snow Leopard

09-09-2018, 06:55 PM

winner69

09-09-2018, 07:27 PM

Unless of course you look at that 15% YoY growth to $0.60 eps forecast for FY20;
remember that milk production is a commodity industry;
and think that may be it is only really worth about

$9

Especially it also pays to remember that though $13 is cheap on the way up is very expensive on the way down.

DYOR: But if you want really ludicrous you need to own Keytone Dairy on the ASX

Yes indeed, earnings +100% in F18 and then +25% and then +15% in 2020 could lead to +10% in 2021.

EPS of 66 cents could easily lead to a share price of $9

Better watch that chart closely eh.

Forgot what Mr P said ‘the market giveth but the market also taketh away’

percy

09-09-2018, 07:56 PM

[QUOTE=Snow Leopard;728448]
remember that milk production is a commodity industry;

Lest we forget.

winner69

10-09-2018, 09:11 AM

Patient Panda

10-09-2018, 09:31 AM

remember that milk production is a commodity industry;

absolutely true for regular run of the mill milk however Synlait do not only make just plain milk. They’re currently the only NZ AUS supplier of CFDA / SAMR registered IF in China. They also process large volumes of A2 milk which has significant pricing power, high margins, a strong brand etc...

winner69

10-09-2018, 09:35 AM

absolutely true for regular run of the mill milk however Synlait do not only make just plain milk. They’re currently the only NZ AUS supplier of CFDA / SAMR registered IF in China. They also process large volumes of A2 milk which has significant pricing power, high margins, a strong brand etc...

Agree with comments re IF but some will say A2 will be a commodity once the hype dies down

winner69

10-09-2018, 09:37 AM

What SML has got going for it is that it’s a far better investment than that dog Fonterra for those wanting sector exposure

Some of recent strength in share price punters switching?

sb9

10-09-2018, 09:56 AM

SML up over last 5 weeks

Another UP week this week

And a boomer announcement next week will keep the momentum going

I’m told forward PE of 24 for all this growth ....PE not much higher than market average ...go figure

Wait till you hear their update re pending CFDA approvals for their two other IF brands "Akara" and "Pure Canterbury".

Ggcc

10-09-2018, 10:10 AM

Agree with comments re IF but some will say A2 will be a commodity once the hype dies down
That would take roughly ten years for herds to be completely turned to A2 milk. By that stage The A2 milk company will be a huge company buying up the competition........ That is my theory.

percy

10-09-2018, 11:56 AM

That would take roughly ten years for herds to be completely turned to A2 milk. By that stage The A2 milk company will be a huge company buying up the competition........ That is my theory.

Why would that happen.?
Most people are more than happy with A1 milk.
Synlait and Fontera are having no trouble sourcing A2 milk.
Just a matter of testing herds, and separating A2 cows from A1 cows.

peat

10-09-2018, 12:01 PM

Synlait I believe also produce A1 milk so with them (cf A2) I venture to suggest its not an either/or type situation

disclaimer - dipped my toes in the milk.

minimoke

10-09-2018, 12:12 PM

Just a matter of testing herds, and separating A2 cows from A1 cows.
Its not a simple as that.

Excellent artiicle from guru Keith Woodford here: https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/92603/keith-woodford-explains-process-converting-dairy-herds-a2-one-will%C2%A0take

Theres around a 7 - 10 year process.

percy

10-09-2018, 12:19 PM

Its not a simple as that.

Excellent artiicle from guru Keith Woodford here: https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/92603/keith-woodford-explains-process-converting-dairy-herds-a2-one-will%C2%A0take

Theres around a 7 - 10 year process.

It has been for a number of farmers.
As pointed out in the article Synlait paid for testing ,so farmers could separate their herds.

Ggcc

10-09-2018, 12:30 PM

Why would that happen.?
Most people are more than happy with A1 milk.
Synlait and Fontera are having no trouble sourcing A2 milk.
Just a matter of testing herds, and separating A2 cows from A1 cows.
I think you will find that the export market will be huge for A2 milk with all of China possibly becoming A2 milk only. Synlait will benefit more from exports than local markets and with the ATM partnership will help elevate both to huge companies. As for Fonterra, they will help ATM while it is able to, but Fonterra will be dropped as soon as Synlait can produce all of A2s products which will be huge in 5-10 years time.

I also believe that Synlait may become privatised within 3 years with up to four major shareholders on board

winner69

10-09-2018, 12:34 PM

Wait till you hear their update re pending CFDA approvals for their two other IF brands "Akara" and "Pure Canterbury".

Sounds exciting

peat

12-09-2018, 02:32 PM

trouble at mill.

Routine maintenance of a system at Synlait Dunsandel (NZX: SML; ASX: SM1) has

caused minor damage to a part of the site energy centre, which has resulted

in a precautionary site evacuation.
...

Synlait anticipates business as usual activities to resume

early in the afternoon.

Patient Panda

12-09-2018, 02:38 PM

sb9

17-09-2018, 10:34 AM

2 days of trading until the big reveal on Wed.
Will be nice if they receive or on course to get CFDA approval for their two remaining IF brands (Akara and Pure Canterbury) and also USFDA approval of their Munchkin brand.

minimoke

17-09-2018, 10:52 AM

Reloaded my ANZ securities call account today in anticipation of some action this week. .I'm hoping that opportunity doesnt arise as it would suggest a slump in SP. Now might be the time to get in before the increase in SP happens. Theres a few cheapies going at $13.06 which you might like before the Ozzies wake up today.

Beagle

17-09-2018, 10:55 AM

I'm hoping that opportunity doesnt arise as it would suggest a slump in SP. Now might be the time to get in before the increase in SP happens. Theres a few cheapies going at $13.06 which you might like before the Ozzies wake up today.

I want to see how they're going on Wed before milking it any more. Analysts usually day a day or two to rework their models so there's a clear time advantage on Wed morning being one's own analyst :)

BlackPeter

17-09-2018, 11:22 AM

I want to see how they're going on Wed before milking it any more. Analysts usually day a day or two to rework their models so there's a clear time advantage on Wed morning being one's own analyst :)

No doubt.

And while I am sure the results will be amazing, am I not sure whether they will be good enough to satisfy the expectations of a forward looking market? I guess looking at their current growth rates - how long can they keep doing this in a sustainable way?

They doubled their manufacturing capacity this year. Hard to do that again in the next year ... i.e. growth rates will need to drop. We will see, how the market is taking this.

Discl: still holding a sizeable parcel, but sold recently some down to keep the market value in line with some other bigger holdings I have.

hardt

17-09-2018, 03:30 PM

Hopefully SP will be down significantly on the well signalled seasonally slower 2H so we can pick up a few more.

Beagle

17-09-2018, 03:43 PM

Average analyst view is $75m. Outlook will be the key. Well telegraphed expansion plans currently in progress will see strong growth continue for the foreseeable future. Trading slightly above the market PE I don't see any issue with valuation being even anywhere remotely close to being stretched at the current level. I am sure long term holders will continue to see their company being the top performing company in the NZX50 this year. Looking forward to Wednesday.

minimoke

17-09-2018, 03:52 PM

Hopefully SP will be down significantly on the well signalled seasonally slower 2H so we can pick up a few more.Wash your mouth out - vile poster of heinous thoughts!
(Disc: 25% of Portfolio 1 is in SML)

minimoke

18-09-2018, 04:45 PM

One more sleep. Could do with some good news!

sb9

18-09-2018, 04:59 PM

One more sleep. Could do with some good news!

My pick is outlook will be bullish as the 11/11 or singles day is fast approaching and most aussie supermarket shelves are out of IF stock (refer HC forum members comments).

Beagle

18-09-2018, 05:04 PM

My rating BBB, Beagle Busy Buying...opps it appears I jumped the gun, that post is for tomorrow lol

Not sure if anyone posted this before https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12120562

sb9

18-09-2018, 05:16 PM

My rating BBB, Beagle Busy Buying...opps it appears I jumped the gun, that post is for tomorrow lol

I know you're way too excited for the milk froth tomorrow :t_up:

Ggcc

18-09-2018, 06:42 PM

I know you're way too excited for the milk froth tomorrow :t_up:
I expect a profit near $78 million, but not enough for the average trader where they expect $85-95 million. The share will decline by $0.50-1.50 and people will look and wonder why........ I will still hold as they could just make $85 million and who would want to miss out on $14 share while longterm I see $25 takeover in approximately 3 years. DYOR before you think I am dreaming. I am not a trader therefore I won’t buy and sell to make a quick buck (then get taxed for it).

winner69

19-09-2018, 08:45 AM

I suppose $74.6m is nearly double $39.5m

About as bad as Snak Media statements

And mini told me off the other day when I implied 18% was nearly 20%

minimoke

19-09-2018, 08:45 AM

I expect a profit near $78 million, but not enough for the average trader where they expect $85-95 million. The share will decline by $0.50-1.50 and people will look and wonder why........ I will still hold as they could just make $85 million and who would want to miss out on $14 share while longterm I see $25 takeover in approximately 3 years. DYOR before you think I am dreaming. I am not a trader therefore I won’t buy and sell to make a quick buck (then get taxed for it).
Give that man a chocloate fish - pretty close

"

Synlait (NZX: SML; ASX: SM1) has reported a net after tax profit (NPAT) of

$74.6 million, almost double the NPAT of $39.5 million announced for the same

period last year. "

winner69

19-09-2018, 08:46 AM

I expect a profit near $78 million, but not enough for the average trader where they expect $85-95 million. The share will decline by $0.50-1.50 and people will look and wonder why........ I will still hold as they could just make $85 million and who would want to miss out on $14 share while longterm I see $25 takeover in approximately 3 years. DYOR before you think I am dreaming. I am not a trader therefore I won’t buy and sell to make a quick buck (then get taxed for it).

So you disappointed at $74.6m ggcc ....and will share price collapse as you indicated?

minimoke

19-09-2018, 08:48 AM

Lets ad

"Synlait also announced today that it has entered into a conditional agreement

to acquire selected Talbot Forest Cheese assets. This includes property,

plant and equipment at a new 12,000 MT Temuka site, the consumer cheese brand

(Talbot Forest Cheese) and customer relationships."

winner69

19-09-2018, 08:49 AM

Give that man a chocloate fish - pretty close

"

Synlait (NZX: SML; ASX: SM1) has reported a net after tax profit (NPAT) of

$74.6 million, almost double the NPAT of $39.5 million announced for the same

period last year. "

No chocolate fish for ggcc ...beagle said $75m ....rounded up from $74.7m he said

Ggcc

19-09-2018, 08:54 AM

Great news and in line with expectations. Something new with the conditional offer for a selected part of Talbot forest cheese. I do see a drop happening in line with what I mentioned $0.50-$1.50. I am happy to keep holding and if it drops too much I buy more for a longterm hold. I will be happy if I am wrong and the share price heads north

minimoke

19-09-2018, 08:57 AM

"This acquisition enhances our current portfolio, and will cement Synlait as

a company with high-quality, flexible dairy manufacturing capabilities that

can be tailored to meet customer needs," says Mr Clement.

"We will be able to manufacture a variety of cheese products that complement

our existing product portfolio, whilst at the same time further diversifying

our revenue streams."

"The proposed acquisition contributes to our intention to grow within the

Everyday Dairy category in New Zealand (which is a notable $2 billion market)

and overseas," he says.

The investment is expected to be in the range of $30 - $40 million, which

reflects incentives for various conditions to be met.

minimoke

19-09-2018, 08:59 AM

Average analyst view is $75m. .Seems they were on the money

Beagle

19-09-2018, 09:07 AM

Seems they were on the money

Yes, solid result and there very good growth coming in the years ahead.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SML/324032/286989.pdf

limmy

19-09-2018, 10:46 AM

Looks like the market likes the result. The sp didn't drop.

hardt

19-09-2018, 11:13 AM

The market is yet to trade... ASX is the only thing that matters to us.

limmy

19-09-2018, 11:30 AM

ASX coming on board in half an hour. Not sure what the response will be like ?

minimoke

19-09-2018, 11:36 AM

ASX coming on board in half an hour. Not sure what the response will be like ?Horses are lining up at the gates. AUD $11.65 seems to have entered the gate first

whatsup

19-09-2018, 12:47 PM

Sub $12 now - boardering on 8% drop, hmmmm, falling knife, market was expecting more= gready market !!

whatsup

19-09-2018, 12:50 PM

10 % drop !!

Ggcc

19-09-2018, 12:50 PM

I expect a profit near $78 million, but not enough for the average trader where they expect $85-95 million. The share will decline by $0.50-1.50 and people will look and wonder why........ I will still hold as they could just make $85 million and who would want to miss out on $14 share while longterm I see $25 takeover in approximately 3 years. DYOR before you think I am dreaming. I am not a trader therefore I won’t buy and sell to make a quick buck (then get taxed for it).
Hand that man a chocolate fish. Oh wait that is me...... It gives those longterm holder the chance to buy more!!!!!!!

Sinvester

19-09-2018, 12:53 PM

I think once the initial 'panic maniacs' calm down, people will see value in it and will go up steadily.

nzsharetrade

19-09-2018, 01:01 PM

why no one is selling below 12.......i want to buy more now.

Patient Panda

19-09-2018, 01:11 PM

I calculate ROE of 18.6% pretty good but less than I would have thought given the massive boost in NPAT.

Ggcc

19-09-2018, 01:19 PM

9963

Well done......
Hahaha thanks. Great to see it is rising again. I am a shareholder and I do think this share will be off the market in approximately 3 years if not earlier

hardt

19-09-2018, 01:23 PM

As we said before, gobbled up all the cheap ones on ASX turd fest.

winner69

19-09-2018, 01:30 PM

I calculate ROE of 18.6% pretty good but less than I would have thought given the massive boost in NPAT.

That’s pretty good and ROIC is over 14% so more than covering its cost of capital

Needs to do that for $2.47 book value to support a $12.00 share price

minimoke

19-09-2018, 02:58 PM

Time to look at what is being bought: http://www.talbotforestcheese.co.nz/On-Offer.php

and some background http://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/features/7328889/The-undisputed-big-cheeses-of-Geraldine

Go to make that A2 cheese somewhere and what better place than just down the road at Geraldine. An excellent place to taste (and buy) on a road trip south

Beagle

19-09-2018, 03:58 PM

Met analyst expectations but some people are spitting the dummy anyway...go figure...

minimoke

19-09-2018, 04:07 PM

Note to self "I am in this for the long term" Repeat,then repeat again

Beagle

19-09-2018, 04:35 PM

Note to self "I am in this for the long term" Repeat,then repeat again

Might pick up my granddaughter from primary school tomorrow afternoon...do you think her teacher would mind if I wrote on the backboard 100 times "Rome wasn't built in a day" lol. Still comfortably above 100 day MA, and now tracking back to be roughly on a par with its stablemate ATM. Reversion to the mean eh...

Patient Panda

19-09-2018, 05:10 PM

Might pick up my granddaughter from primary school tomorrow afternoon...do you think her teacher would mind if I wrote on the backboard 100 times "Rome wasn't built in a day" lol. Still comfortably above 100 day MA, and now tracking back to be roughly on a par with its stablemate ATM. Reversion to the mean eh...

Yes a good motto to remember.

in the future that stable mate is going run circles around SML. Both great businesses but the economics are far more compelling for A2 IMO.

winner69

19-09-2018, 07:53 PM

So 4 analysts got the profit figure spot on (consensus on the go to website for such info)

The same 4 analysts targets have a mean value of $8.89. Those analysts aren’t entirely stupid? They came up with their numbers in a considered way ...maybe not even putting emotion into their work.

Maybe that $8.89 is about right for the Synlait share price ...$12/$13 come from irrational exhuberent punters driven by hype.

Be interesting if these gurus change their outlooks in the next week or so.

sb9

21-09-2018, 09:51 AM

Bell Potter updated their valuation with "Buy" recommendation with tp of AU $12.65 or NZ $13.80 (based on current fx rate). Sourced from HC member post.

winner69

21-09-2018, 09:52 AM

Bell Potter updated their valuation with "Buy" recommendation with tp of AU $12.65 or NZ $13.80 (based on current fx rate). Sourced from HC member post.

Wonder what they smoke ...

sb9

21-09-2018, 09:53 AM

Wonder what they smoke ...

Something that you and me don't....

Beagle

21-09-2018, 09:56 AM

Wonder what they smoke ...

Probably just normal smokes. Forward PE low 20's (about the market average) and I am expecting EPS growth of about 30% for the next few years. PEG about 0.75
Distinct possibility this stock could be in play in the foreseeable future too. Can't see any reason not to hold long term. Maybe Chris Lee thinks a PEG is something one uses to hang their clothes on a line :D

sb9

21-09-2018, 09:58 AM

Probably just normal smokes. Forward PE low 20's (about the market average) and I am expecting EPS growth of about 30% for the next few years. PEG about 0.75
Distinct possibility this stock could be in play in the foreseeable future too. Can't see any reason not to hold long term.

Agree 100%, the new CEO Leon is just taking measured approach and treading with caution "under promise and over deliver". Nothing wrong with that approach imo.

peat

21-09-2018, 10:16 AM

Yes exactly that is how I feel - that I have missed the boat with the milk crowd - I was very tempted when SML went back to mid 10$ lately but never pulled the trigger. I'm very cautious about being a victim of FOMO, but may dip my toes in the milk on any retracement.

Synlait I believe also produce A1 milk so with them (cf A2) I venture to suggest its not an either/or type situation

disclaimer - dipped my toes in the milk.

not acting on my own advice so far has cost me about one dollar per share (thankfully its an expensive share so I didn't buy too many) but will hodl and buy more at 10ish if the opportunity presents itself.
With a new historical eps of 41.6 at current price historical PE of 28 which is a bit high , and means I paid PE of 31 - way too high. I'll have to learn from the Panda with this one.

Beagle

21-09-2018, 10:26 AM

Bell Potter updated their valuation with "Buy" recommendation with tp of AU $12.65 or NZ $13.80 (based on current fx rate). Sourced from HC member post.

Did they and can you please post a link to Bell Potters valuation mate ?

Forward PE is where its at with growth companies mate. Low 20's is very good value for a growth stock of Synlait's pedigree.
Remember, Rome wasn't built in a day :)

sb9

21-09-2018, 10:35 AM

Did they and can you please post a link to Bell Potters valuation mate ?

Forward PE is where its at with growth companies mate. Low 20's is very good value for a growth stock of Synlait's pedigree.
Remember, Rome wasn't built in a day :)

Sorry mate haven't got link myself, but check 'SM1' thread on HC and you'll find it there.

Beagle

21-09-2018, 10:49 AM

Thanks mate. $A12.65 Buy.

minimoke

21-09-2018, 04:53 PM

Index day today? seems like a pile going through at end of day

Beagle

21-09-2018, 08:44 PM

Index day today? seems like a pile going through at end of day
Yes index day. Bizarre how the brokers are miles apart on their valuation of Synlait. I have a Macquarie wealth management report putting $8.40 on them.
I will stick with my own view and continue holding.

hardt

22-09-2018, 11:13 AM

Same brokers with PT's for years well below SP since we hit £4.

Beagle

22-09-2018, 11:16 AM

Huge volume yesterday at the closing match price suggests the market thinks Macauarie's are well and truly wrong so I've put their report in the bin where it belongs :)

winner69

22-09-2018, 11:17 AM

Same brokers with PT's for years well below SP since we hit £4.

Might just mean this current fad of growth at any cost is just that

Maybe when the hype/excitment/exuberance wears off the share price will fall somewhere near what experienced analysts and their models reckon what’s it really worth.

Beagle

22-09-2018, 11:19 AM

Might just mean this current fad of growth at any cost is just that

Maybe when the hype/excitment/exuberance wears off the share price will fall somewhere near what experienced analysts and their models reckon what’s it really worth.

ATM paid $10.90 to acquire an 8% stake a while back. Millions went through yesterday in the mid 11's. I rest my case.

winner69

22-09-2018, 11:20 AM

Huge volume yesterday at the closing match price suggests the market thinks Macauarie's are well and truly wrong so I've put their report in the bin where it belongs :)

Huge volume and share price goes down (when market was up) ......hmmm

Some say that’s not good

winner69

22-09-2018, 11:21 AM

ATM paid $10.90 to acquire an 8% stake a while back. Millions went through yesterday in the mid 11's. I rest my case.

ATM had ‘strategic reasons’ so price wasn’t first priority?

Beagle

22-09-2018, 11:34 AM

ATM had ‘strategic reasons’ so price wasn’t first priority?
One might like to consider if they have more strategic reasons going forward ? Some old dog on here a while back opinioned that a takeover at $16 or thereabouts makes profound commercial logic for ATM.

kiwi_crusader

22-09-2018, 01:42 PM

minimoke

24-09-2018, 10:13 AM

Milky tide seems to be lowering all boats. SML down as well - maybe on the back of ATM

nzsharetrade

26-09-2018, 03:51 PM

$11..........are we down to fair value yet based on the 2019 forecast?

bull....

27-09-2018, 11:43 AM

increasingly looks like the spike was a blow off top

winner69

27-09-2018, 11:51 AM

increasingly looks like the spike was a blow off top

....normally not a good sign eh bull

winner69

27-09-2018, 11:53 AM

$11..........are we down to fair value yet based on the 2019 forecast?

No — a few more bucks to go imho

bull....

27-09-2018, 11:58 AM

....normally not a good sign eh bull

time will tell .... bitcoin , pot nz has milk?

Filthy

28-09-2018, 09:23 AM

breach of the 120MA. I wonder where the bottom is. tough chart to read this one.

Beagle

28-09-2018, 09:28 AM

No — a few more bucks to go imho

FWIW which is probably not much but I think its getting close to oversold. Remember that ATM paid $10.90 a while back for another 8%.

Nasi Goreng

28-09-2018, 11:01 AM

There should be support at $10.50 area if it gets there, current PE of 25, $375m of capital projects being delivered in FY19 with growth of 25-30% year on year for the next 2-3 years, there are not many companies like this on the NZX. This may be a mere blip in the long term scheme of things. Nothing has changed in the last few weeks, except you can now buy in at a cheaper price.

pg0220

28-09-2018, 12:12 PM

Agreed, it is simply oversold, it has more good news to come such as SAMR approval for its IF products, etc.....

RupertBear

02-10-2018, 12:01 PM

Good buying at this price? :confused:

I have decided that it is so dumped a few of my loss making OHE and placed them here ;)

Beagle

02-10-2018, 12:30 PM

Good buying at this price? :confused:

I have decided that it is so dumped a few of my loss making OHE and placed them here ;)

ATM paid $10.90 for their additional 8% a while back so yes I think there is sound value at this price but my focus at present is to find growth stocks on much cheaper fundamental's that will pay me a decent (preferably fully imputed) dividend in my semi retirement. I have been buying more OCA and CMO.

Filthy

02-10-2018, 12:32 PM

There should be support at $10.50 area if it gets there.

yep, I had put support at around the $10.40 mark.

RupertBear

02-10-2018, 12:37 PM

ATM paid $10.90 for their additional 8% a while back so yes I think there is sound value at this price but my focus at present is to find growth stocks on much cheaper fundamental's that will pay me a decent (preferably fully imputed) dividend in my semi retirement. I have been buying more OCA and CMO.

Thanks Mr Beagle, I am keeping an eye on getting a few more OCA. Appreciated your well researched post on OCA yesterday, thanks for sharing with us :)

peat

02-10-2018, 01:23 PM

I've added to my rash purchase at the highs so that I'm now about neutral (as opposed to underweight or overweight) on this stock. I think I am prepared to HODL on this one for the LT. I still dont own any ATM though so will go there next if there becomes a good opportunity. But my gut preference is with the maker of the product. And I believe SML has more of a call option comittment to A2 milk specficially , in that it can diversify if necessary but can benefit from strong growth.

minimoke

02-10-2018, 01:45 PM

HODL on this one for the LT. I still dont own any ATM .I'm still hodling SML and ATM with a long term view. The two of them currently make up 42% of my Portfolio 2 which is about as much exposure to the Milky McMilkness as I have an appetite for. Otherwise I would be topping up at current prices.

minimoke

03-10-2018, 12:04 PM

Finally a bit of interest: 1m shares crossing at $10.80

nzsharetrade

03-10-2018, 12:07 PM

how come it does not impact the current market price? any idea?

couta1

03-10-2018, 12:10 PM

how come it does not impact the current market price? any idea? It's an off market sale, it has affected the VWAP which is now $10.7998

minimoke

03-10-2018, 12:15 PM

how come it does not impact the current market price? any idea?current seller happy with les

nzsharetrade

03-10-2018, 12:32 PM

It's an off market sale, it has affected the VWAP which is now $10.7998
That makes sense. thanks

nzsharetrade

03-10-2018, 12:32 PM

current seller happy with les
hahahahhahahaha

Filthy

04-10-2018, 10:50 AM

buy order got hit yesterday. looks like I am on-board.
those knives sure are sharp when you catch them!

Timesurfer

04-10-2018, 10:54 AM

I still dont own any ATM though so will go there next if there becomes a good opportunity.

It may just be comming your way?

nzsharetrade

05-10-2018, 10:18 AM

what is the reason for SML going with ATM drop? ATM fundamental did not change and SML did not get a CEO from Jetstar either.

steveb

05-10-2018, 10:26 AM

what is the reason for SML going with ATM drop? ATM fundamental did not change and SML did not get a CEO from Jetstar either.
ATM is a major shareholder

minimoke

05-10-2018, 10:28 AM

what is the reason for SML going with ATM drop? ATM fundamental did not change and SML did not get a CEO from Jetstar either.
The milky Sea rises and drops all boats

Beagle

05-10-2018, 11:07 AM

winner69

05-10-2018, 11:15 AM

Prefer this one to ATM now. More diversified and although there are some questions over the CEO's credentials coming from Fonterror that's got to be better than Jetheap, (although not by much) and al least he isn't dumping shares and talking a load of creative talk about being happy about Chinese new ecommerce rules.

SML will gain any upside from ATM's growth and we don't have to put up with the troughing and B.S.

Leon doesn’t seem to have bought any shares yet ...no skin in the game. I assume he’s started with them

Maybe waiting for something to fairer value like $8.85 ...or maybe his broker is the guy whose target is $7.85

peat

05-10-2018, 11:19 AM

Prefer this one to ATM now. More diversified and although there are some questions over the CEO's credentials coming from Fonterror that's got to be better than Jetheap, (although not by much) and al least he isn't dumping shares and talking a load of creative talk about being happy about Chinese new ecommerce rules.

SML will gain any upside from ATM's growth and we don't have to put up with the troughing and B.S.

One of my reasons is that they make stuff, not just brand and sell, though I do recognise that branding and selling can be very profitable but its got a narrower moat.
Also SML not dependent on A2 milk and if the science (or the fad) changes then they'll still have a job.

Beagle

05-10-2018, 11:25 AM

Leon doesn’t seem to have bought any shares yet ...no skin in the game. I assume he’s started with them

Maybe waiting for something to fairer value like $8.85 ...or maybe his broker is the guy whose target is $7.85

Bell Potter $A12.65 price target mate. Came out yesterday and downgraded ATM to "hold" which we all know is market code for SELL but continued to recommend SML.

I'm with you Peat and think SML could be a takeover target too. Doesn't look like anyone wants to takeover ATM, might as well just copy their product and probably get away with it ! Real questions at least in my mind about the veracity of ATM's claims regarding the strength of their IP.

couta1

05-10-2018, 12:25 PM

Glad I've only got a small holding in this, down 15% on purchase price, fallen off a cliff it has, worse than my THL holding.

minimoke

05-10-2018, 12:51 PM

Glad I've only got a small holding in this, down 15% on purchase price, fallen off a cliff it has, worse than my THL holding.We gotta remember its Australia that drives the prices here (and on ATM). what we seem to have once again is the game playing bots running riot. We've seen these types of falls before andf previously I've doubled down. No this time around for me though as I am already well exposed to milk.

Beagle

05-10-2018, 01:06 PM

Remind me again, how much did ATM pay when they bought another 8% of this a while back ? Wasn't it $10.90 ?

King1212

05-10-2018, 01:11 PM

Holly cow....could not imagine for those that paid $13 above recently..just couple weeks ago....

winner69

05-10-2018, 01:22 PM

Remind me again, how much did ATM pay when they bought another 8% of this a while back ? Wasn't it $10.90 ?

Rather like Fletcher’s wanting to pay $1.70 or more for Steel and Tube

peat

05-10-2018, 01:23 PM

Holly cow....could not imagine for those that paid $13 above recently..just couple weeks ago....

I'm not too worried, though I have reduced my average price recently. todays sell off obviously not fantastic but one must expect volatility.
it helps to know the business model is solid and the company is growing so that current PE will reduce to more acceptable levels as the expansion continues. its not just the profits of the past you're buying its the skill to grow continually.
I just loved the way that when Ebert went under and Synlait said they had no relationship with them, that shows good management skills to me.

Beagle

05-10-2018, 01:26 PM

Switched out of my remaining holding in ATM today and into this for about 15 cps less. Lower PE ratio here by a considerable margin and hard assets that can be used to produce all sorts of dairy products if ATM stops being flavor of the month. Less risk through a more diversified portfolio of clients but still has upside potential from ATM. 4.5% portfolio position, might add a little more if the market keeps having a tantrum.

winner69

05-10-2018, 01:26 PM

Holly cow....could not imagine for those that paid $13 above recently..just couple weeks ago....

Did the much vaunted Jayne work out $10.90 for Synlait was a good price

Beagle

05-10-2018, 01:28 PM

Did the much vaunted Jayne work out $10.90 for Synlait was a good price

You would hope that was a board decision seeing as she was / is the new kid on the block

minimoke

05-10-2018, 01:40 PM

Did the much vaunted Jayne work out $10.90 for Synlait was a good priceAs much as we might like to see her hung, drawn and quartered (or even just a good ducking in a pond) I dont think we can blame her for that.

steveb

05-10-2018, 01:55 PM

minimoke

05-10-2018, 02:13 PM

It's all about timing ATM took the position about a month before Jayne sold ATM down the river,Had they known they were going to be stabbed in the back I don't think any shares would have been purchased full stop.While they don't travel in perfect unison ATM and SML do seem to travel together. Something Jayne may not have known. If she did then she is also responsible for a fair chunk of SML's capital erosion as well as a consequence of her share sale.

couta1

05-10-2018, 03:23 PM

Okay this thing has now become the Dog share of the week, it's making A2 look good by comparison.Lol.

minimoke

05-10-2018, 03:27 PM

Okay this thing has now become the Dog share of the week, it's making A2 look good by comparison.Lol.I'm not sure why it is getting smashed so hard. Maybe some inside knowledge on China?

Bobdn

05-10-2018, 03:37 PM

Just learning more about this stock. i assume, from a diversification point of view it wouldn't be sensible to own both ATM and SML as they are part of the same sector? Would be sort of like buying BP and Royal Dutch Shell. Looking to buy ATM or SML but not both.

minimoke

05-10-2018, 03:41 PM

Just learning more about this stock. i assume, from a diversification point of view it wouldn't be sensible, to own both ATM and SML as they are part of the same sector? Would be sort of like buying BP and Royal Dutch Shell. Looking to buy ATM or SML but not both.I have both - which is fine in a rising tide. But hurts when they decide to be Lemmings

sb9

05-10-2018, 03:41 PM

Trading at or about fair value now...might see a turnaround from here, I hope.

Bobdn

05-10-2018, 03:47 PM

I have both - which is fine in a rising tide. But hurts when they decide to be Lemmings

Ok, thanks, I'll have a think about it.

bull....

05-10-2018, 04:09 PM

RupertBear

05-10-2018, 04:34 PM

Okay this thing has now become the Dog share of the week, it's making A2 look good by comparison.Lol.

Its an utter stinker! :(

Leftfield

05-10-2018, 04:59 PM

pg0220

05-10-2018, 05:01 PM

Been holding SML shares since a few years ago. There was one time this tanked a lot by a couple of dollars to $6 range. I was very tempted to top up, but I didn't and it was very disappointing that I didn't! The stories between back then and now might be a bit different, but the trend looks quite similar..... I am very tempted now, but I just don't have enough cash at all with the first birthday of my baby coming soon! XD

Beagle

05-10-2018, 05:03 PM

Strong correlation tween ATM and SML IMO (see pic below)

10024

DISC - I held both (and did well) but realising my portfolio was overexposed to Diary - I now only hold ATM - for better or worse!! :eek2:

I am the exact opposite and now only hold SML but what a BRUTAL DAY !! Doubled down this morning at $10.24 and was such a **** of a day I actually decided to do some real work on a Friday afternoon...you know its a tough day on the market when the lazy old beagle works hard on a Friday afternoon !

pg0220

05-10-2018, 05:07 PM

I am the exact opposite and now only hold SML but what a BRUTAL DAY !! Doubled down this morning at $10.24 and was such a **** of a day I actually decided to do some real work on a Friday afternoon...you know its a tough day on the market when the lazy old beagle works hard on a Friday afternoon !

LOL a busy day at work can actually make you forget and work like a painkiller!

winner69

05-10-2018, 05:09 PM

Trading at or about fair value now...might see a turnaround from here, I hope.

Fair value (lot or bit) lower

Book value only $2.40 odd ...hmmm

peat

05-10-2018, 05:16 PM

topped up under $10.
Long term view though.
This is a day when you are glad you are nearly 2/3 cash or cash equiv.

Beagle

05-10-2018, 05:28 PM

LOL a busy day at work can actually make you forget and work like a painkiller!

It did, worked as a pretty good painkiller with the bonus I might have covered a quarter of my losses today...who would have thought writing up a lengthy tax opinion report was more fun than watching the market :eek2: Just "love" working hard and going backwards....

couta1

05-10-2018, 05:59 PM

It did, worked as a pretty good painkiller with the bonus I might have covered a quarter of my losses today...who would have thought writing up a lengthy tax opinion report was more fun than watching the market :eek2: Just "love" working hard and going backwards.... I've hardly done any real work all week unless you call sorting out your wife's car and painting her office filing cabinets work, will be working all weekend attending to residents at a couple of retirement villages.

Beagle

05-10-2018, 08:57 PM

So after today's major decline where does the company sit in terms of valuation relative to the market. Lets just put aside my sense that this company is going to grow strongly in the years ahead and look objectively at analyst forecasts. https://www.marketscreener.com/SYNLAIT-MILK-LTD-14391761/financials/
EPS forecast for FY19 is 51.5 cps FY20 is 59 cps and FY21 74 cps. Forward PE for FY19 is 19.4 lower than what has been reported to be the market forward PE of around 21 lately and this for a stock with a clearly defined strategy of growth in the years ahead. SML and ATM have a good track record of pacing each other in recent times in terms of their SP. Opportunity knocks ? with the present price difference and fundamental value of SML, you be the judge.

winner69

06-10-2018, 02:29 PM

Hey Couts ....can you explain to Beagle that Friday's action re SML share price was just a case of reversion to the mean.

SML share price been about 93% of ATM share price for some time now ...except when ATM was ridiculously priced

minimoke

09-10-2018, 08:53 AM

John Penno get his "retirement" sorted. Cashing up a few shares - will be interesting to follow to see what he is putting it into - cant all be a new deck

winner69

09-10-2018, 09:03 AM

John Penno get his "retirement" sorted. Cashing up a few shares - will be interesting to follow to see what he is putting it into - cant all be a new deck

Got $10.80 ......probably thinks it’s never going to be that again so took $11m off the table

Might regret not selling more when it’s $8.50 (fair value)

minimoke

09-10-2018, 09:16 AM

Got $10.80 ......probably thinks it’s never going to be that again so took $11m off the table

Might regret not selling more when it’s $8.50 (fair value)
That doesn't make sense. If its not going to be any better than $10.80 in his mind then he would have taken the whole lot and put it into the new investments he is looking at - cos he sure as heck isn't going to be wanting to put his money into money loosing schemes.

So probably needed a bit of spending / investment money and sees value going north of $10.80 which is why he has kept 83% of his holding

sb9

09-10-2018, 09:16 AM

Finally a bit of interest: 1m shares crossing at $10.80

From 3/10, this crossing relates to John Penno's disposal as per notice issued today.

He deserves it, well done.

Beagle

09-10-2018, 09:20 AM

Got $10.80 ......probably thinks it’s never going to be that again so took $11m off the table

Might regret not selling more when it’s $8.50 (fair value)

Can't let you get away with that. That my friend is disingenuous on both counts. Firstly John Penno has built a lot of wealth in this company over a long period of time and there's a BIG difference between selling about 20% of one's shares when they have left a company and Ms hrdlicka selling all her shares just after joining.
Secondly his stated intention was to pursue the development of early start up companies so one would expect he would want some capital out to facilitate that.
Thirdly, how on earth would you know what he's thinking about the future value ?
And lastly I recently checked market screener and the average analyst figure is $9.38. You've yanked the dog's tail and he's barked, happy now ?

tzbang

09-10-2018, 11:07 AM

$9.85.. jeez it's tempting to double down at these levels.

bull....

09-10-2018, 11:19 AM

Got $10.80 ......probably thinks it’s never going to be that again so took $11m off the table

Might regret not selling more when it’s $8.50 (fair value)

a manufacturer with such a high p/e unheard off except in a bull market lol

Beagle

09-10-2018, 12:15 PM

a manufacturer with such a high p/e unheard off except in a bull market lol
https://m.marketscreener.com/SYNLAIT-MILK-LTD-14391761/ Yeah a forward PE of 19.4 for a company with such strong growth and a clearly defined pathway for future strong growth is "really outrageous" when the average forward market multiple is over 20. What did ATM pay again, that's right $10.90 for their recent extra 8%. Hmmm

Some of the commentary that its overpriced is very poorly considered in my opinion.

RupertBear

09-10-2018, 12:38 PM

Geepers when is this thing going to bottom out! Thinking of going dairy free :mellow:

couta1

09-10-2018, 12:41 PM

Geepers when is this thing going to bottom out! Thinking of going dairy free :mellow: The bottom is always zero Rupert, hope that makes you feel better.PS-Im down over 20%.PPS-Baton down the hatches Rupert she's ugly all round out there.

RupertBear

09-10-2018, 01:21 PM

The bear is going to go into hibernation and not looking any more, too many red arrows around today

minimoke

09-10-2018, 01:26 PM

The bear is going to go into hibernation and not looking any more, too many red arrows around todayMy whole portfolio is a sea of red!

couta1

09-10-2018, 01:30 PM

My whole portfolio is a sea of red! Yep I'm all red bar 3 stocks but overall still blue thanks to the saving grace of having a over sized position in HLG.

Beagle

09-10-2018, 02:51 PM

The bear is going to go into hibernation and not looking any more, too many red arrows around today

This dog just went for a long brisk walk to destress and had a long chat to himself so too speak that I am not investing for tomorrow or next month or next year...I am investing for the long run and a comfortable retirement in about 10 years time. Nothing fundamentally has changed about the growth story and the PE is very reasonable for a company that just increased its profits by close to 90% and has a clearly articulated long term growth story ahead.

ratkin

09-10-2018, 03:36 PM

This dog just went for a long brisk walk to destress and had a long chat to himself so too speak that I am not investing for tomorrow or next month or next year...I am investing for the long run and a comfortable retirement in about 10 years time. Nothing fundamentally has changed about the growth story and the PE is very reasonable for a company that just increased its profits by close to 90% and has a clearly articulated long term growth story ahead.

It not just milk shares , all my aussie healthcare stocks are well down today Cochlear down 4.5% CSL down over 3% markets have the october blues. It a good thing, hopefully it continues a while and creates some good buying opportunities.

Beagle

09-10-2018, 04:02 PM

It not just milk shares , all my aussie healthcare stocks are well down today Cochlear down 4.5% CSL down over 3% markets have the october blues. It a good thing, hopefully it continues a while and creates some good buying opportunities.

Perhaps you are right, some deep breaths and long term thinking and planning required. I am 41% cash and in no hurry to put any of it to work at present.

minimoke

09-10-2018, 04:03 PM

This dog just went for a long brisk walk to destress and had a long chat to himself so too speak that I am not investing for tomorrow or next month or next year...I am investing for the long run and a comfortable retirement in about 10 years time. Nothing fundamentally has changed about the growth story and the PE is very reasonable for a company that just increased its profits by close to 90% and has a clearly articulated long term growth story ahead.
Yup, I've taken a deep breath and reminded myself of the same. An excellent reminder why NOT to look at long term shares on a daily basis.

ratkin

09-10-2018, 04:12 PM

Yup, I've taken a deep breath and reminded myself of the same. An excellent reminder why NOT to look at long term shares on a daily basis.

You lot seem to look at them on an hourly basis :-)

minimoke

09-10-2018, 04:30 PM

You lot seem to look at them on an hourly basis :-)
Im looking for a tool that gives instant updates when SP head up and locks me out of my browser when it heads down - its death by a thousand cuts at the moment

percy

09-10-2018, 04:55 PM

Perhaps you are right, some deep breaths and long term thinking and planning required. I am 41% cash and in no hurry to put any of it to work at present.

In the meantime OCA is coming your way.
Don't let Couta1 get them all.!!..lol

Beagle

09-10-2018, 04:59 PM

Im looking for a tool that gives instant updates when SP head up and locks me out of my browser when it heads down - its death by a thousand cuts at the moment

LOL, classic.

In the meantime OCA is coming your way.
Don't let Couta1 get them all.!!..lol

He just called me and told me he's in the midst of doing a Couta on them lol

percy

09-10-2018, 05:10 PM

LOL, classic.

He just called me and told me he's in the midst of doing a Couta on them lol

At $1.19 and $1.20 I think he has done well.

Bobdn

09-10-2018, 06:41 PM

Im looking for a tool that gives instant updates when SP head up and locks me out of my browser when it heads down - its death by a thousand cuts at the moment

Seriously, I went three months without looking at shares during my darkest time. I didn't look at news, told my family and friends I didn't want any updates etc. It was December 2013 to February 2014. It was the best thing I could have done. Checking shares daily is draining and its not like it changes anything. I still do it compulsively at the moment, however.

Death by a thousand cuts is a good description.

One last thing, Jack Bogle said in an interview once that as investors there are times that we have to "take our lumps". I track my net worth every month and have been doing so to the nearest dollar over a nearly 10 year period. The drama in the chart!! Plenty of lumps but over the 10 years it moves upwards and to the right as you would hope. Over a single month? All hell can break loose.

couta1

09-10-2018, 06:48 PM

Seriously, I went three months without looking at shares during my darkest time. I didn't look at news, told my family and friends I didn't want any updates etc. It was December 2013 to February 2014. It was the best thing I could have done. Checking shares daily is draining and its not like it changes anything. I still do it compulsively at the moment, however.

Death by a thousand cuts is a good description. Investors don't need to check shares daily but traders need to check them by the minute.

winner69

09-10-2018, 07:05 PM

Strong finish to day ......up 3.5% from the lows of the day

That’s a good positive sign

No worries

peat

10-10-2018, 09:56 AM

Fonterra announce a drop in the milk price which got me wondering how this affects our terrible milk twins.

minimoke

10-10-2018, 09:59 AM

Fonterra announce a drop in the milk price which got me wondering how this affects our terrible milk twins.
That will be for the terrible A1/A2 milk. Not the premium specially healthy A2 milk.

King1212

10-10-2018, 05:52 PM

Ouch..back to the sp that I sold out ....

Bobdn

11-10-2018, 12:45 PM

I didn't pick up any in the end. I'll wait this out, if it gets back to the prices earlier this year (less than $7) I'll pick some up then. Still would like to buy but no hurry

bull....

11-10-2018, 12:49 PM

highly correllated to a2

Beagle

11-10-2018, 01:35 PM

Hard copy annual report arrived today. Hope I can find some inspiration in there...

Ggcc

11-10-2018, 01:38 PM

Hard copy annual report arrived today. Hope I can find some inspiration in there...
If Synlait continues to drop in SP I wonder if A2 may purchase another 1% at these prices.......... In the best interest of shareholders.

Beagle

11-10-2018, 02:08 PM

minimoke

11-10-2018, 02:21 PM

Who knows what Herdlicker will do next but probably worth noting that the $10.90 they paid for their last tranche is ~ 20% more than today's price.
Good growth for FY19 but strong growth for FY20 is my read on the annual report.In a years time we'll look back on the past week or so and wonder what all the fuss was about. I hope.

Justin

11-10-2018, 02:25 PM

the pe still high if the bear market ahead

bull....

11-10-2018, 02:45 PM

the pe still high if the bear market ahead

single digit p/e

ratkin

11-10-2018, 03:01 PM

About time some sanity was bought back into the markets, apart from having little nibbles at IFT have been unable to find anything worth investing in for months. Valuations have been ridiculous. Hopefully another week of chaos and should shake the tree a bit. Nothing like a good old fashioned October rout, not had one for a while

winner69

11-10-2018, 03:55 PM

single digit p/e

.....maybe 12 is fairer ...but no more

sb9

11-10-2018, 04:18 PM

As per NBR article looks like John and Maury Penno are backing The Pure Food Co with their investment, good on them!

Beagle

11-10-2018, 04:23 PM

https://www.marketscreener.com/SYNLAIT-MILK-LTD-14391761/financials/

Some of the comments today are bordering on simply being silly. Look at the historical and projected EPS growth. Average forward market multiple is about 20 after this rout and at 51.5 cps average forecast next year this high growth company is trading on a forward PE of just 17.7 at $9.15, well under the market average.

bull....

11-10-2018, 04:31 PM

Beagle

11-10-2018, 04:37 PM

are you factoring in any taffiffs , trade wars , slowing growth , new regs etc etc why do you think a2 is falling off the cliff. synliat follows a2

Yes more than fully factored into the price already.

Snow Leopard

11-10-2018, 04:41 PM

...Some of the comments today are bordering on simply being silly....

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/vsbattles/images/e/e7/Monty_python_silly.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20170220165754

I will not make the obvious comment :D

Beagle

11-10-2018, 04:54 PM

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/vsbattles/images/e/e7/Monty_python_silly.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20170220165754

I will not make the obvious comment :D

LOL a lot of ill informed comment on here. I doubt many have spent the necessary time actually reading the annual report thoroughly so have little idea of the growth prospects and opportunities ahead and all they see is the negatives. Some guy a while back said "be greedy when others are fearful"

Snow Leopard

11-10-2018, 04:59 PM

Oh look, it is now trading close to the consensus target price

https://www.marketscreener.com/SYNLAIT-MILK-LTD-14391761/consensus/

Beagle

11-10-2018, 05:06 PM

Oh look, it is now trading close to the consensus target price

https://www.marketscreener.com/SYNLAIT-MILK-LTD-14391761/consensus/

Yes quite right and we all know average target prices are never wrong https://www.marketscreener.com/RYMAN-HEALTHCARE-LTD-6492072/consensus/ :p or when AIR 12 month target was $2.13 and the share price at that time was $2.80 !

minimoke

11-10-2018, 05:06 PM

LOL a lot of ill informed comment on here. I doubt many have spent the necessary time actually reading the annual report thoroughly so have little idea of the growth prospects and opportunities ahead and all they see is the negatives. Some guy a while back said "be greedy when others are fearful"Eg "our aim is to be the first NZX listed B Corp". This is a report chock full of 'foundations are laid" and the growth is all ahead.

Its quite an uplifting doc - recommended bedtime reading over the next few nights.

Beagle

11-10-2018, 05:09 PM

Eg "our aim is to be the first NZX listed B Corp". This is a report chock full of 'foundations are laid" and the growth is all ahead.

Its quite an uplifting doc - recommended bedtime reading over the next few nights.

I found it quite therapeutic reading today mate. Doubt any of the "expert" naysayers have bothered to read it. Great that John Penno is staying on and serving on the board.

sb9

12-10-2018, 10:30 AM

As per NBR article looks like John and Maury Penno are backing The Pure Food Co with their investment, good on them!

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/business/two-investors-including-former-fonterra-executive-join-kiwi-company-boosting-nutrition-in-food-elderly

Link to article for news posted as above, I know this is off-topic, but just to highlight the good work Penno keeps doing out in the community. He's a good man, that Penno!!!

Beagle

12-10-2018, 10:47 AM

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/business/two-investors-including-former-fonterra-executive-join-kiwi-company-boosting-nutrition-in-food-elderly

Link to article for news posted as above, I know this is off-topic, but just to highlight the good work Penno keeps doing out in the community. He's a good man, that Penno!!!

Does my long range super sniffer Beagle nose sense a listing coming for "The Pure Food Company" ? Nice name..hope they're serving our elderly folks A2 milk, cheese and a new A2 yogurt about to be released ?

Beagle

12-10-2018, 12:13 PM

winner69

12-10-2018, 01:04 PM

First lot A2 bought were at $3.27 so still will ahead even though they paid over the odds at $10.90 for another lot

nzsharetrade

12-10-2018, 01:28 PM

I think the $4+ correction down from $13 a few weeks ago to under $9 this morning is overdone. ATM paid ~ 20% more for their 8% shareholding at $10.90 than the current price and I think there's the real chance of a takeover of SML in the foreseeable future. I increased my position this morning. Forward PE is just 17.7 with years of strong growth ahead.

hi Breagle, how does that work? CN got 49% ATM got 16%, I thought you need to hold some shares to be able to start the takeover process. even it is going to happen, it will be a long process, right?

Beagle

12-10-2018, 03:56 PM

hi Breagle, how does that work? CN got 49% ATM got 16%, I thought you need to hold some shares to be able to start the takeover process. even it is going to happen, it will be a long process, right?

Process starts by a company such as Nestle approaching the major shareholders and seeing at what price they would sell. The rest is a formality that takes a few months. You don't need any to start with. It could be ATM starts hoovering up more shares on market and then start a takeover process by maybe cash and scrip.

nzsharetrade

12-10-2018, 04:13 PM

Process starts by a company such as Nestle approaching the major shareholders and seeing at what price they would sell. The rest is a formality that takes a few months. You don't need any to start with. It could be ATM starts hoovering up more shares on market and then start a takeover process by maybe cash and scrip.

Cool, Thanks. it would be hard for bright light to let it go in IMO.

Beagle

12-10-2018, 04:24 PM

List of top 5 shareholders from 2018 annual report, has changed since then and ATM now have 16%
Bright Dairy Holdings Ltd 39.04%
The A 2 Milk Company ltd 9.11%
Mitsui & Co Ltd 5.03%
John Penno 3.42%
Mitsui and Co Australia Ltd 3.35%

minimoke

12-10-2018, 04:31 PM

Then can be no takeover until there is surety of access into China

couta1

24-10-2018, 05:16 PM

This stock is the biggest dog in my portfolio currently, the 6 month chart looks like the Matterhorn.Lol

pg0220

24-10-2018, 05:21 PM

This stock is the biggest dog in my portfolio currently, the 6 month chart looks like the Matterhorn.Lol
Pick any random active shares and see the 6 month chart, by over 50% of chances you will get to see the same north face!

BTW, is this a good chance to top up? Do I need to increase holding using my next month's pay?!

RupertBear

24-10-2018, 05:23 PM

This stock is the biggest dog in my portfolio currently, the 6 month chart looks like the Matterhorn.Lol

The Matterhorn is actually a stunningly beautiful mountain although I agree the chart is a stinker and my nice wee profits have been replaced by a red arrow :t_down:

RupertBear

24-10-2018, 05:26 PM

This stock is the biggest dog in my portfolio currently, the 6 month chart looks like the Matterhorn.Lol

Who would have thought your wee HLG would be the shining star amongst all this carnage! ;)

minimoke

24-10-2018, 05:32 PM

Pick any random active shares and see the 6 month chart, by over 50% of chances you will get to see the same north face!

BTW, is this a good chance to top up? Do I need to increase holding using my next month's pay?!Not as ugly as this last round of falls. Precedent setting - SML hasn't fallen so far below its 30 and 100 day moving averages in 5 years

Beagle

24-10-2018, 05:35 PM

No doubt about it...the chart is as ugly as this https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=ugly+bulldog&id=B3E769ADF55267BD250830537F6633C766C9B969&FORM=IQFRBA

minimoke

24-10-2018, 05:47 PM

Used a tried and true measurement its about an 8 Jugger

couta1

24-10-2018, 05:55 PM

Who would have thought your wee HLG would be the shining star amongst all this carnage! ;) Yep any company that's been around for 145 yrs with no debt is trying to tell you something.

petty

25-10-2018, 10:54 AM

A nice little forecats 19 update there. And still down 6% this morning. Getting into buying territory

Beagle

25-10-2018, 11:01 AM

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SML/325749/289155.pdf

Started the year at ~ $7.50. I would think we're already oversold but who knows with this crazy market ?
Long term growth opportunity here for sure https://www.marketscreener.com/SYNLAIT-MILK-LTD-14391761/financials/
forward average analyst eps estimates FY19 51.5 cps, FY20 59.0 cps, FY21 74.0 cps.
Choose whatever multiple you think is right for this fast growing company. Market average forward PE is now down to about 17.5 according to some so on market average that suggests fair value is $9.01, average analyst price target $9.38...but I think eps is growing much faster than the market average and I am not the only one that thinks that looking at those average analyst forward eps forecasts...

babymonster

25-10-2018, 11:14 AM

broke my entry price.. gutted i didn't sell it at the peak.. anyway.. i think i will add more... good luck

RupertBear

25-10-2018, 11:15 AM

broke my entry price.. gutted i didn't sell it at the peak.. anyway.. i think i will add more... good luck

Same here. Have just topped up GULP

Sideshow Bob

25-10-2018, 11:20 AM

Hate to have seen what happened with a bearish update......

hardt

25-10-2018, 11:48 AM

Load
Up
The
Truck

777

25-10-2018, 11:50 AM

Load
Up
The
Truck

That is what I thought at $9.15 but didn't act on it.

allfromacell

25-10-2018, 11:52 AM

That is what I thought at $9.15 but didn't act on it.

Me too except I did load up, now the trucks fill up :(.

peat

25-10-2018, 11:56 AM

the price action is quite devastating and SML has annihilated my portfolio returns after buying in at close to the highs but will dig deep and add.

BlackPeter

25-10-2018, 12:03 PM

the price action is quite devastating and SML has annihilated my portfolio returns after buying in at close to the highs but will dig deep and add.

Did buy some.

Anybody noticing that the volume so far is not really convincing? Might be just some nervous and inexperienced investors selling ...

I guess really - if people didn't sell their SML shares at $12 - why would they want to sell them now?

As well - from a fundamental perspective does this share now look really great. At $8.24 (I know, SP is risng again - better be quick) is the forward PE still below 15! Not too bad for a company with a forward CAGR of above 25 ...

Obviously - take care out there and DYOR ...

minimoke

25-10-2018, 12:21 PM

My last top up was at $10.80 and emptied the coffers. So I am taking a bit of a hammering at the moment. On a daily basis its ugly but I remain unworried from a long term view.

Balance

25-10-2018, 12:47 PM

Massive selling out of Asia on SML - may be a while yet before we see bottom?

Sideshow Bob

25-10-2018, 01:35 PM

My last top up was at $10.80 and emptied the coffers. So I am taking a bit of a hammering at the moment. On a daily basis its ugly but I remain unworried from a long term view.

Just go for a run MM......may just have to be a long one...….

couta1

25-10-2018, 01:53 PM

Just go for a run MM......may just have to be a long one...…. I'd recommend running the length of the Sahara Desert, at 3000 miles and averaging 20 miles a day then about 150 days worth of running, the SML SP should be looking better by then.PS-I haven't allowed for any rest days so you may want to schedule a few in.

minimoke

25-10-2018, 02:02 PM

I'd recommend running the length of the Sahara Desert, at 3000 miles and averaging 20 miles a day then about 150 days worth of running, the SML SP should be looking better by then.PS-I haven't allowed for any rest days so you may want to schedule a few in.In a moment of folly after rueing a hard day in the markets I did register for an event in the Queenstown mountains in Feb. It will take me about 10 hours. That might do the trick if I can keep my sanity till then.

carrom74

25-10-2018, 02:06 PM

My last top up was at $10.80 and emptied the coffers. So I am taking a bit of a hammering at the moment. On a daily basis its ugly but I remain unworried from a long term view.

Just topped up at $8.06 and wondering why i did that!(my average is $9.60)

Its been a rough month for me.

Couta -Just to add... its more looking like a whole Trans continental run as Sahara seems too small for this.

couta1

25-10-2018, 02:18 PM

Just topped up at $8.06 and wondering why i did that!(my average is $9.60)

Its been a rough month for me.

Couta -Just to add... its more looking like a whole Trans continental run as Sahara seems too small for this. Heaps of bargins going at the moment, sure you might buy even cheaper but a bargin is a bargin. PS-If ALL my money wasn't in the market already I'd be buying up hard out. PS-Yes Trans Continental sounds the ticket.

Sideshow Bob

25-10-2018, 03:32 PM

In a moment of folly after rueing a hard day in the markets I did register for an event in the Queenstown mountains in Feb. It will take me about 10 hours. That might do the trick if I can keep my sanity till then.

Ooohhhhh - Shotover Moonlight Marathon?? Nice!

minimoke

25-10-2018, 04:35 PM

Ooohhhhh - Shotover Moonlight Marathon?? Nice!
A review I read said "brutal" (oh sh1t - what have I done!!)

peat

25-10-2018, 04:48 PM

dont say its going to close UP!!

RupertBear

25-10-2018, 05:08 PM

A review I read said "brutal" (oh sh1t - what have I done!!)

I did it a few years ago, it is brutal but its fantastic country to be in and if you pace yourself and eat and drink properly you will be fine. The worst bit for me was the drive in around Skippers Canyon and having to walk over the bridge they bungy jump off to get to the start line! :eek2: I am terrified of heights! Good on you!! :)