SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[Beagle]

Fundamentally nothing has changed. This is still an excellent growth story. It was trading on big multiples and had got ahead of itself.

NZ dollar dropped below 73c to USD today. It will come under a lot of pressure with rising US interest rates and greater risk aversion. Helpful to SML as an exporter.

Looking increasingly likely to be the case. TA enthusiasts will have noted a clear break down through the 100 day MA in early Feb which has continued.
On the other hand no break down through the 100 day MA for ATM. These two have shown a less robust correlation in the last couple of months.
I agree its a good company and has very good long term prospects but I'm not going to fight the technical's in the new extreme market volatility environment we're in.
My mantra for dealing with extreme volatility and a probable secular bear market is if the tide's going out, I'm out. Too much hard work swimming against the tide so if FA and TA don't line up I'm out.

[minimoke]

Two converging roads. Interim results on 21 March. And my stop loss limit. Wondering which will arrive first!

[couta1]

Those two lovelies A2 and HLG keeping my overall portfolio in the green as opposed to this(Can't say the word on here) is doing it's best to pull me into the red overall.In time I will be back to my undiversified 3-4 stock portfolio, can't wait.

[minimoke]

Those two lovelies A2 and HLG keeping my overall portfolio in the green as opposed to this(Can't say the word on here) is doing it's best to pull me into the red overall.In time I will be back to my undiversified 3-4 stock portfolio, can't wait.
This is my first foray into milk and ATM's gains aren't able to offset SML's losses. I'm slightly heavier weighted in ATM so at least I got that right.

[Nasi Goreng]

Those two lovelies A2 and HLG keeping my overall portfolio in the green as opposed to this(Can't say the word on here) is doing it's best to pull me into the red overall.In time I will be back to my undiversified 3-4 stock portfolio, can't wait.

Well its actually my biggest gainer. I got in with one parcel at low $2 and a few more around $2.60. Hardly anyone commented on this thread around that time. I've really enjoyed watching the company grow as each earnings result propels the company forward.

Great growth prospects and a great business but if you are jumping in and out every few months, you might feel a bit hurt as its breached the 100 and the sp has come off the boil. Long term, this company has got longer legs than most on the NZX and is running rings around Fonterra.

[minimoke]

How am I supposed to make sense of this activity?

[peat]

How am I supposed to make sense of this activity?

accumulation at the micro level?
theres only 1289 for sale at 664. yet 15599 are wanted at 660. someone is meeting the market but slowly. why I dont know.

[minimoke]

Dont like to get to ahead of myself. But trading currently at $7.06 and getting closer to be back at break even point. Seems a bit early given Interim Results not due for another month

[couta1]

Dont like to get to ahead of myself. But trading currently at $7.06 and getting closer to be back at break even point. Seems a bit early given Interim Results not due for another month Off the back of the A2 result in a couple of days, excitement mounting.

[whatsup]

Todays opening will be very interesting for SML what with todays ATM/Fontera's new partnership agreement.

[Sideshow Bob]

Todays opening will be very interesting for SML what with todays ATM/Fontera's new partnership agreement.

A2 still owns a chunk of SML, so wouldn't have thought would do too much to the detriment of that - except if the growth opportunities with Fonterra outweigh the value of their shareholding.....

[whatsup]

Todays opening will be very interesting for SML what with todays ATM/Fontera's new partnership agreement.

DOWN 6.7% I guess that this was to be expected .

[sb9]

Todays opening will be very interesting for SML what with todays ATM/Fontera's new partnership agreement.

There might be an initial knee jerk reaction from market but in the long run it does matter as Synlait does most of the Infant Formula requirements whereas the agreement with Fonterra is more for Fresh Milk and A1 free Protein Free Supplements.

Moreover remember its Synlait that hold the CFDA approval which is the main key.

[minimoke]

I've just placed an order for a few more. May as well apply my ATM "profits" to something

[blackcap]

I've just placed an order for a few more. May as well apply my ATM "profits" to something

I picked up some this morning at 6.49 as well. Think it might be oversold.

[BigBob]

I picked up some this morning at 6.49 as well. Think it might be oversold.

What he said... :-)

[minimoke]

I picked up some this morning at 6.49 as well. Think it might be oversold.
Bit rich for me - got mine at $6.47. Sorry for devaluing your buy!

Now to sit back and wait for next months results and have the attention turned back to SML

[couta1]

There might be an initial knee jerk reaction from market but in the long run it does matter as Synlait does most of the Infant Formula requirements whereas the agreement with Fonterra is more for Fresh Milk and A1 free Protein Free Supplements.

Moreover remember its Synlait that hold the CFDA approval which is the main key. Very pertinent points, A2 would be toasted without that approval held by Synlait, infant formula is the big one.

[minimoke]

Very pertinent points, A2 would be toasted without that approval held by Synlait, infant formula is the big one.Points lost on people intent in devaluing our recent buys!

[JoeGrogan]

wow this looks like it could be heading to fill the 590 gap, if this falls through 620 could be a real possibility.

[Nasi Goreng]

As a long term investor in SML I can understand the market reaction to today’s news.

My gut reaction was initially this is not good for SML but with ATM’s growth agenda it makes complete sense that they need multiple partners. In the last year SML has doubled its canning capacity and bought a facility in Auckland.

The SML growth story is well in tact but despite all this... it makes sense that a $1 billion company can’t be the sole supplier to an $8 billion company. Think about that for a moment...

There is no indication that the supply relationship between SML and ATM is damaged, reading between the lines, it will likely strengthen all 3 parties which will allow SML to continue its growth agenda without the pressure to keep up with all of ATM’s supply needs.

Looks pretty good to me and I’m going to sit back and look forward to another bumper earnings report and want to hear more about further SML growth opportunities going forward.

[mfd]

I'm sure synlait will continue to do well from the link to ATM, but it's obvious to me the real growth prospects are with ATM not SML. Synlait are only exposed to a part of the ATM business and are unlikely to benefit from planned expansions in the US, Europe, SE Asia, Middle East unless they can compete on price with fonterra and local milk production/processing. A2 are big enough to negotiate now and have the capital to build their own facilities if that works out best.

[Nasi Goreng]

And that’s why the value of ATM is $8B and SML $1B.

Both companies can double in size from here and even if ATM accelerates faster, there aren’t many companies with the prospects of these two so I expect the panic to cease soon enough.

[couta1]

And that’s why the value of ATM is $8B and SML $1B.

Both companies can double in size from here and even if ATM accelerates faster, there aren’t many companies with the prospects of these two so I expect the panic to cease soon enough. Lots of small reef fish holders in this company and when a kingfish(aka Fonterra) arrives on the scene, they scatter. Disc-Bleeding heavily on this one, but will hang in there as SML is more than just A2.

[sb9]

Lots of small reef fish holders in this company and when a kingfish(aka Fonterra) arrives on the scene, they scatter. Disc-Bleeding heavily on this one, but will hang in there as SML is more than just A2.

It'll come alright come reporting time next month. And don't forget A2 has bought 8.2% stake in SML last year. Surely, they value that investment with all seriousness and don't put that relationship in jeopardy.

[steveb]

Lots of small reef fish holders in this company and when a kingfish(aka Fonterra) arrives on the scene, they scatter. Disc-Bleeding heavily on this one, but will hang in there as SML is more than just A2.
The dead cat will bounce tomorrow can't see any reason why you would sell at $6.28 at the mo.

[Blair]

I've just placed an order for a few more. May as well apply my ATM "profits" to something
Ditto, but first time buyer.

Sold a bit early as it turns out with ATM. Not early enough for it to have been a mistake, but still.
Bought some SML at $6.27... will see how it goes.

[minimoke]

Ditto, but first time buyer.

Sold a bit early as it turns out with ATM. Not early enough for it to have been a mistake, but still.
Bought some SML at $6.27... will see how it goes.Hope you do better than me - when I buy price goes down. Very comforting though that ATM is going up at a greater rate of knots that SML is going down.

[hardt]

Bought more at 640 and 630 today, huge reaction to Synlait supplied powders sales at A2 going through the roof...

[tipsy]

I'm very tempted to jump back in at these prices.

[nzsharetrade]

Does SML need to clarify something?

[couta1]

Does SML need to clarify something? Perhaps it's A2 that need to clarify something?

[nzsharetrade]

I thought ATM made it very clear or this can be interpreted into something else?

9521

[hardt]

I thought ATM made it very clear or this can be interpreted into something else?

9521

Perhaps some were thinking Synlait could hold onto A2 exclusively...
Some might also be worried of Fonterra edging Synlait out in future...

Infant formula sales broke $341m... Synlait has been pumping the stuff out 24/7, this can only mean a cracking report is on its way.

[JoeGrogan]

I thought ATM made it very clear or this can be interpreted into something else?

9521

SML ain't going to get a piece of the pie with emerging markets. Just being used for the CFDA?

is that your interpretation? seems to be the markets

[Beagle]

I thought ATM made it very clear or this can be interpreted into something else?

9521

Thank you for your post and welcome to the forum.

[couta1]

SML ain't going to get a piece of the pie with emerging markets. Just being used for the CFDA?

is that your interpretation? seems to be the markets SML will have their work cut out just providing enough IF to satisfy the growing Chinese market that is being captured by A2, let alone worrying about emerging markets.

[JoeGrogan]

SML will have their work cut out just providing enough IF to satisfy the growing Chinese market that is being captured by A2, let alone worrying about emerging markets.

Yeah agree and the fact that they have the supply agreement for A2's biggest markets. I'm just wondering how such an overreaction can be justified.

[couta1]

Yeah agree and the fact that they have the supply agreement for A2's biggest markets. I'm just wondering how such an overreaction can be justified. It can't, but the market is often irrational.

[nzsharetrade]

Thank you for your post and welcome to the forum.


Thank you. you are a legend. I read almost all your posts.

[minimoke]

Needed a market update
"

Synlait Milk Limited (NZX: SML, ASX: SM1) and The a2 Milk Company Limited


(NZX: ATM; ASX: A2M) wish to clarify that the announcements made today by The


a2 Milk Company and Fonterra do not change Synlait's exclusive infant formula


supply arrangements to The a2 Milk Company. "


Time to return to normal transmision

[minimoke]

And heres a further clue
"

"Our Company recognises that Synlait has performed outstandingly under the


exclusive infant formula supply arrangement between the two companies and our


on-going relationship will continue to serve us both well into the future,"


says Mr Babidge. "

[JoeGrogan]

Needed a market update
"

Synlait Milk Limited (NZX: SML, ASX: SM1) and The a2 Milk Company Limited


(NZX: ATM; ASX: A2M) wish to clarify that the announcements made today by The


a2 Milk Company and Fonterra do not change Synlait's exclusive infant formula


supply arrangements to The a2 Milk Company. "


Time to return to normal transmision




They halt trading on the NZX? i note its back up to 636 on the asx

Edit: as i posted this trading continued on the nzx

[minimoke]

They halt trading on the NZX? i note its back up to 636 on the asx
Bingo. Back in the money. $6.60

[IAK]

Bought a modest position today at $6.31 timing looks quite good for a change.

[tzbang]

What a crazy day! Saw the ATM results and was busy clapping ..until I noticed the Fonterra announcement had sent SML south and triggered my stop-loss @$6.50. Ok, I watched the over-reaction and bought back a slightly smaller holding of SML @$6.25 and used the rest to top up ATM @ $11.50. SML back to $6.65 and ATM $11.75 phew!

[blackcap]

What a crazy day! Saw the ATM results and was busy clapping ..until I noticed the Fonterra announcement had sent SML south and triggered my stop-loss @$6.50. Ok, I watched the over-reaction and bought back a slightly smaller holding of SML @$6.25 and used the rest to top up ATM @ $11.50. SML back to $6.65 and ATM $11.75 phew!

Well done.

Yeah hectic day indeed. Bought some SML at 6.49 and might be able to get out tomorrow at $6.90 if I am lucky. Was considering buying more at the $6.30 range but chickened out. Those things happen.

[RupertBear]

Well done.

Yeah hectic day indeed. Bought some SML at 6.49 and might be able to get out tomorrow at $6.90 if I am lucky. Was considering buying more at the $6.30 range but chickened out. Those things happen.

Bought some at $6.48 thinking I had done well then watched them go down another 20 cents the next minute :scared: Lucky they went back up ;) exhausting day :sleep:

[minimoke]

Well done.

Yeah hectic day indeed. Bought some SML at 6.49 and might be able to get out tomorrow at $6.90 if I am lucky. Was considering buying more at the $6.30 range but chickened out. Those things happen.
Yup, a bit of a roller coaster. I bought SML with a 5 year window. But as price drops I've topped up. Nervous today as bought more and it was then accelerating towards my stop loss.

All turned out OK. But I am still down 6.6% overall.

So, your selling at $6.90 before waiting a month for the year end results. I like this in todays contribution from ATM

Synlait has performed outstandingly under the


exclusive infant formula supply arrangement


In particular I like the word "outstandingly". So I am happy to continue holding

[blackcap]

Yup, a bit of a roller coaster. I bought SML with a 5 year window. But as price drops I've topped up. Nervous today as bought more and it was then accelerating towards my stop loss.

All turned out OK. But I am still down 6.6% overall.

So, your selling at $6.90 before waiting a month for the year end results. I like this in todays contribution from ATM

Synlait has performed outstandingly under the


exclusive infant formula supply arrangement


In particular I like the word "outstandingly". So I am happy to continue holding

Thank you, I just purchased that one for a trade without having done any due diligence as such. Seemed an absurd reaction to the ATM announcement. I shall have to do some more reading overnight and reevaluate tomorrow :)

[Sideshow Bob]

Not worried

https://issuu.com/farmersweeklynz/docs/farmers_weekly_nz_february_26_2018/1?ff=true&e=30768707/58629275

[petty]

Im expecting a very solid announcement next month. Topped up at 6.49 based on what I considered irrational response by the market to A2's announcement. (Maybe I am missing something). My view is Synlait hold the key ANZ and China IF agreement where A2's grow has been had. I think Geoff's 'outstanding' comment is a nod to this. Cant wait for half years.

[Valiant]

I have similar expectations to yours petty. Holding and will look for opportunities to grab a few more prior to their half year result. Cheers.

[sb9]

Synlait acquires Pokeno site for infant formula growth...



https://www.nzx.com/announcements/314744

[nzsharetrade]

The conditional purchase of land is subject to Overseas Investment Office (OIO) approval and Synlait will support the OIO process as required.

why? is CN involved?

[winner69]

The conditional purchase of land is subject to Overseas Investment Office (OIO) approval and Synlait will support the OIO process as required.

why? is CN involved?

Whose big shareholder in Synlait?

[couta1]

Whose big shareholder in Synlait? Bright Dairy China own 51% of Synlait.

[minimoke]

I've missed the bit about where they are going to get the $260m from

[blackcap]

I've missed the bit about where they are going to get the $260m from

Yeah that bit stuck out for me too... maybe from you and I :)

[winner69]

Bright Dairy China own 51% of Synlait.

So that should help nzsharetrade out

[nzsharetrade]

So that should help nzsharetrade out


They have to go to OIO because CN owns SML? I thought it is only for direct investment in land.

[King1212]

Yeah that bit stuck out for me too... maybe from you and I :)

ATM has a lot of cash!!! Wait till the deal go through...ATM will give some!!

[winner69]

They have to go to OIO because CN owns SML? I thought it is only for direct investment in land.

This is interesting article nzsharetrade
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12002635

Maybe Govt stop this deal as well ..as Jacinda says ‘Government would stop foreigners by simply saying no.’

[nzsharetrade]

This is interesting article nzsharetrade
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12002635

Maybe Govt stop this deal as well ..as Jacinda says ‘Government would stop foreigners by simply saying no.’

seems complicated...ATM should acquire SML to make things easy.:D

[black knat]

This is interesting article nzsharetrade
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12002635

Maybe Govt stop this deal as well ..as Jacinda says ‘Government would stop foreigners by simply saying no.’

No sugar coating the anti-business agenda there.... they could actually do good deal of damage once they eventually get organised. Apologies for the digression.

[minimoke]

Hurray. I've doubled down with SML the last couple of buys in the hope it would get me out of negative territory. Today i am finally in positive land - with my SML investment up a total of $0.78 (thats total, not per share). Its a positive and I'll take it!

[Nasi Goreng]

Can ATM afford it?

[minimoke]

Well this is just stupid. How can depth show 15 lines of trades betwem 15:45 and 15:49, all with a volume of one share each. That's a really good way of shunting trades off the list so we don't get to see what the market is doing (not that I am greatly concerned given its putting me properly in the money now,)

[minimoke]

Can ATM afford it?$240m cash on hand. How best to utilise that cash I wonder?

[couta1]

$240m cash on hand. How best to utilise that cash I wonder? Hopefully not by putting money into SML as I sold today to put more money into ATM. PS-Bot buying giving you your many lines at well above VWAP, which is $7.08 odd.

[Sideshow Bob]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12002833

Synlait's proposed $260 million specialist dairy manufacturing plant at Pokeno will contest only about 2 per cent of milk production in the Waikato, the least competitive major dairying area in the country, says chief executive John Penno.

[minimoke]

Hopefully not by putting money into SML as I sold today to put more money into ATM. PS-Bot buying giving you your many lines at well above VWAP, which is $7.08 odd.Gonna have to learn more about this bot buying - didnt use have these things back in the good old days.

[nzsharetrade]

Hopefully not by putting money into SML as I sold today to put more money into ATM. PS-Bot buying giving you your many lines at well above VWAP, which is $7.08 odd.

Where do you see the VWAP?

[minimoke]

Where do you see the VWAP?
Here is a picture of ANZ sitre

[nzsharetrade]

Here is a picture of ANZ sitre

Thank you.

[RupertBear]

Hurray. I've doubled down with SML the last couple of buys in the hope it would get me out of negative territory. Today i am finally in positive land - with my SML investment up a total of $0.78 (thats total, not per share). Its a positive and I'll take it!

I did the same and I'm finally in positive land now as well :) thinking of holding on now until their results then :confused:

[King1212]

Ozzie closed $6.76....NZ$7.28...expecting a good run till result?

[minimoke]

I did the same and I'm finally in positive land now as well :) thinking of holding on now until their results then :confused:Why sell? Dont forget - let your profits run

[hardt]

Why sell? Dont forget - let your profits run

But if the counter to that statement is cut your losses short... why not sell when you were in the red?

[minimoke]

But if the counter to that statement is cut your losses short... why not sell when you were in the red?
I didnt sell when I was in the red because my stop loss limit had not been struck. This means I am allowed to make emotional or informed decisions.

The first double down was after I felt the market over corrected and it was an opportunity to buy more at a cheaper price on an expectation that better things will come.

The second double down was on the basis of the market incorrectly reading the Fonterra statement. I felt the value is in the Infant Formula certification and since that hadn't changed the underlying value in SML was still there.

As I have mentioned earlier i am not a trader. I bought with a 5 year window. So I will ride the ups and downs and will only sell if stop loss hit (I had a big test of this with ATM when I was sorely tempted to sell at $14 plus - but didnt as I had to remind myself of the strategy. Sure I missed out on some immediate profit - but I reckon the longer term is where the money will be made).

(Emotions, I feel are a more dangerous thing in a falling market as we are inclined to hold rather than sell. Emotions in a rising market not such a bad thg as you are riding a positive wave)

[Beagle]

A heads up. OIO approval is likely to take absolutely ages in my opinion, possibly as long as a year assuming its forthcoming at all.

[King1212]

what a good run guys!!!

[JoeGrogan]

what a good run guys!!!

Very nice run, was expecting something to happen based on the rest of the sector going nuts the past week on the ASX.

[King1212]

would see the sp head to $10 prior the result in 3 weeks? with market cap of $10 per share of $1.8B company with its south island growth, new plant and high demand of If formula...

[sb9]

would see the sp head to $10 prior the result in 3 weeks? with market cap of $10 per share of $1.8B company with its south island growth, new plant and high demand of If formula...

Why not, last couple of days price action indicates someone is quite keen to accumulate....

[nzsharetrade]

SM1 AU$7.650 is this real?

[NZSilver]

bought a few - momentum seems very strong

[JoeGrogan]

Why not, last couple of days price action indicates someone is quite keen to accumulate....

Chart seems to suggest the last few months have been a period of strong accumulation.

[Dust]

Moment of silence for those who panic sold on last week's A2/Fonterra annoucement :sleep:

Congrats to those who took advantage :D

[steveb]

I suspect the interim results due next month might have leaked out somewhere

[minimoke]

Hurray. I've doubled down with SML the last couple of buys in the hope it would get me out of negative territory. Today i am finally in positive land - with my SML investment up a total of $0.78 (thats total, not per share). Its a positive and I'll take it!Unbelievable. Yesterday I had made $0.78 on my double down strategy. Today I am 10.3% up . I'm in the strange position of not being able to spend faster than I'm making on the sharemarket at the moment

[nzsharetrade]

I suspect the interim results due next month might have leaked out somewhere

I am sure the number is already calculated by some smart people based on the numbers from ATM.

[Sideshow Bob]

Unbelievable. Yesterday I had made $0.78 on my double down strategy. Today I am 10.3% up . I'm in the strange position of not being able to spend faster than I'm making on the sharemarket at the moment

So you haven't told your wife then! :p

[Dust]

Unbelievable. Yesterday I had made $0.78 on my double down strategy. Today I am 10.3% up . I'm in the strange position of not being able to spend faster than I'm making on the sharemarket at the moment

hey its me, your brother...

[minimoke]

So you haven't told your wife then! :pTry as I do to sneak things in, she's always able to sniff it out. Anyhow, I at least have that age old excuse of buying more SML in a "sale" and who can argue with spending money to make money.

[nzsharetrade]

"Goodson said the share price movements were hard to understand, particularly given changes announced last week by A2 Milk which sees A2 forge a close supply relationship with Fonterra, which market watchers have seen as limiting Synlait's future growth with A2. " Matt Goodson, managing director at Salt Funds Management.

is this Fund doing well? seems he did not read the update from ATM and SML regarding the deal.:scared:

[Nasi Goreng]

His comments are in line with the knee jerk reaction the market had. It was only when you got to sit back and think, how does this really effect SML? and then you realise it doesn't. SML have a massive growth agenda and ATM's deal with Fonterra doesn't get in the way of that.

So yes, you do wonder if these guys have the time to read these reports and consider the big picture or do they form opinions in 5 minutes.

[JoeGrogan]

LOL glad he’s not managing my money

[hardt]

Not sure if this recent jolt upwards is in anticipation for SML results after what formula sales were for A2...

Or if it is just retailers over reaction to the selldown and business as usual announcement.

[minimoke]

Not sure if this recent jolt upwards is in anticipation for SML results after what formula sales were for A2...

Or if it is just retailers over reaction to the selldown and business as usual announcement.Back in November hit a high of $8.25. Hasn't been any negative news since then.

[McGinty]

Not sure if this recent jolt upwards is in anticipation for SML results after what formula sales were for A2...

Or if it is just retailers over reaction to the selldown and business as usual announcement.

SM1 is under accumulation on the ASX (check out the volume the last week), this is overflowing onto the NZX after the ASX opens.
A nice continuation breakout occured this week following a 4 month base and a shakeout last week (A2 results and Fonterra announcement). So momentum is now returning :t_up:

[JoeGrogan]

Not sure if this recent jolt upwards is in anticipation for SML results after what formula sales were for A2...

Or if it is just retailers over reaction to the selldown and business as usual announcement.


Must be anticipation, on a forward PE of 18 yesterday before its jolt, surely quite conservative with the expected growth. Especially when compared to the rest of the sector.

Also the chart shows strong accumulation over the past few months so maybe the sellers finally dried up? i note the SM1 chart on the asx broke through to a record high while staying above zero on the TMF indicator, which is a strong sign of a breakout looming. Be interesting to see what happens today on the asx

[sb9]

SM1 is under accumulation on the ASX (check out the volume the last week), this is overflowing onto the NZX after the ASX opens.
A nice continuation breakout occured this week following a 4 month base and a shakeout last week (A2 results and Fonterra announcement). So momentum is now returning :t_up:

Agree totally, its the ASX volume demand that pushed the price higher. For ex, y'day the volume on ASX was 580K+ shares compared to about 180K+ shares on NZX.

[whome]

His comments are in line with the knee jerk reaction the market had. It was only when you got to sit back and think, how does this really effect SML? and then you realise it doesn't. SML have a massive growth agenda and ATM's deal with Fonterra doesn't get in the way of that.

So yes, you do wonder if these guys have the time to read these reports and consider the big picture or do they form opinions in 5 minutes.

Spot on, Nasi

[King1212]

it seems like this train is no stopping at all...keep growing and good news keep coming....

2 weeks to the results. We might see the sp like ATM...pop during the result day.

Good luck all the holders..!!

[NZSilver]

Yep I have bought a parcel pre results - everything is pointing to some tidy numbers and it moving into 8+

[sb9]

Yep I have bought a parcel pre results - everything is pointing to some tidy numbers and it moving into 8+

Should start to move up between now and early next week as it inches closer to the results date....may be $9 with bit of luck??

[King1212]

Should start to move up between now and early next week as it inches closer to the results date....may be $9 with bit of luck??

I reconk it will hit $10....after the result. As a lot of good news and growth into the company....but anyway..let see..less than 6 days trading. Hopefully the CDFA from AKara brand and USA one have an update...good luck all the holders!

[minimoke]

Nice to see some one thinking a $650,000 spend at $7.66 a worthwhile buy. Commiserations to seller.

[couta1]

Nice to see some one thinking a $650,000 spend at $7.66 a worthwhile buy. Commiserations to seller. Seller probably bought at under $3, so congrats to them to.

[sb9]

Nice to see some one thinking a $650,000 spend at $7.66 a worthwhile buy. Commiserations to seller.

Nice one, should push thro' $8 mark in next few days...

[ratkin]

Nearly all Synlaits exports go through Lyttelton and with the port at a standstill for the next couple of weeks, could be some short term pain

[percy]

Nearly all Synlaits exports go through Lyttelton and with the port at a standstill for the next couple of weeks, could be some short term pain

Most probably best to use POT's Timaru Rolleston inland port,don't think they would mind.
ps.Most probably using it already?.

[minimoke]

Most probably best to use POT's Timaru Rolleston inland port,don't think they would mind.
ps.Most probably using it already?.
Thats the trouble with things like industrial action and minimum wages. It just encourages business to look at alternatives. Which might inevitably mean change in supplier and more automation

[Beagle]

Nice one, should push thro' $8 mark in next few days...

Hope so for investors sake. Its been a frustrating five months since this was at that level in mid October basically in lock step with ATM at the same price and yet since that time ATM has put on another $6. Weird how the SP's rose in very close correlation for six months in early / mid 2017 and then this major divergence.

Wouldn't it be fascinating to know the commercial terms of the supply arrangements to ATM. I guessing its a multi year fixed margin contract based on wholesale value of raw A2 milk and ATM have been able to achieve serious consumer pricing power based on the scarcity of their product in the market.

[minimoke]

Nice one, should push thro' $8 mark in next few days...Well, we got to $8.00 today. Just a bit more of a nudge and we will be past it.

[nzsharetrade]

is there anything to support the idea of $10?

[minimoke]

is there anything to support the idea of $10?Which month or year?

[sb9]

is there anything to support the idea of $10?

Any unexpected good news/announcement from the company would surely push it thro' $10 mark and here's hooping there's to be one next week.

[nzsharetrade]

Any unexpected good news/announcement from the company would surely push it thro' $10 mark and here's hooping there's to be one next week.

I understand the idea of unexpected good news/announcement (potential) from ATM but not sure for SML as a supplier.

[sb9]

I understand the idea of unexpected good news/announcement (potential) from ATM but not sure for SML as a supplier.

Don't count that out, you never know...SML is a quiet performer!!!

[Bazingaboy]

I'm definitely going to enjoy my milk baths after the announcement next week :)

[nzsharetrade]

Don't count that out, you never know...SML is a quiet performer!!!

just hope the SP would not disappoint people again....

[RTM]

just hope the SP would not disappoint people again....
Disappoint again ? You must have a short time frame for your investing. My average buy is 235, and I have enjoyed every inch of the ride !

[nzsharetrade]

Disappoint again ? You must have a short time frame for your investing. My average buy is 235, and I have enjoyed every inch of the ride !
:t_up:
hah, am new. I hope i got it at 235.....:D...

[King1212]

Would be silly to sell now? 4 days trading to result date of 21st march. With the numbers on ATM presentation...surely we all can do the maths? What do u think guys? Would we see $10 a share after the result?

[Absolute144]

Would be silly to sell now? 4 days trading to result date of 21st march. With the numbers on ATM presentation...surely we all can do the maths? What do u think guys? Would we see $10 a share after the result?

Could do...

[sb9]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/102255165/alibabarelated-company-rolls-out-more-milk-offerings-to-online-savvy-chinese

Good news for whole Dairy industry in general, as it says...

"Milk New Zealand Dairy, the export arm of Alibaba majority owned Theland New Cloud, has yet to draw up a launch plan for the new product.
Manufacturing partnerships have been developed with Fonterra, Synlait, Miraka and Westland Milk Products and others. Theland Farm Group run the farms for the Chinese.'

[King1212]

Final trading day today.....can anyone calculate the Pe and advise estimate the current sp would be? Thanks

[Absolute144]

My best Guess = $9 - 9.50 AUD on 25% increase NPAT around 46 million. Maybe not on the day but the week. Probability 80 %
All these figures have no basis in anything and are just an optimistic guess until results revealed.

[Nasi Goreng]

I’m not expecting a huge surprise. Share price may go down tomorrow.

Strong profit growth with more to come. I havent given much thought as to what eps figure would make me dissapointed, happy or delighted.

[ratkin]

I’m not expecting a huge surprise. Share price may go down tomorrow.

Strong profit growth with more to come. I havent given much thought as to what eps figure would make me dissapointed, happy or delighted.

Good news must be fully factored into the current shareprice, and then some

[Nasi Goreng]

Good news must be fully factored into the current shareprice, and then some

Maybe...?

These are SML results for 2017

2017 HY Profit $10.6M
2017 FY Profit $38.2M

My completely unqualified guess is they bring in $69M for 2018 so maybe $32M for the first half. If they do this, then its a forward PE of around 21.

[couta1]

Good news must be fully factored into the current shareprice, and then some You would hope not, otherwise this stock could be a bit of a Woofer for latecomers and painful to hold over the next 6 months,unlike another Milky stock I know of. PS-Bought back some last week but ready to ditch if it heads much below $8.

[Beagle]

Average broker forecast for FY18 from 4traders is for EPS of 36.7 cps which puts them on a FY18 PE of 22.
http://www.4-traders.com/SYNLAIT-MILK-LTD-14391761/financials/

[couta1]

Average broker forecast for FY18 from 4traders is for EPS of 36.7 cps which puts them on a FY18 PE of 22.
http://www.4-traders.com/SYNLAIT-MILK-LTD-14391761/financials/ 4 traders median price target equals $6.26, and $11 for A2, doesn't say much for them on that front.

[hardt]

Earnings forecasts for FY18F are around 37CPS, up from the previous forecasts from last year of 27CPS... upgrade cycles have serious momentum.

A certainty here is that volumes are going to be quite a lot larger than last years... as well as having a product mix heavily skewed to high margin powders.
Could be in for a bit of an unexpected volume boost alongside marginal expansion... that is not already priced in.



FY17A









GROSS MARGIN PER MT
781.00



MT PRODUCED
141364



GROSS PROFIT - NZDm
110.41













2nd CFDA registration could also be coming soon for the New Hope nutritional products and USDA approval for Munchkin powders.

Not to mention the foodstuffs wetmilk/cream coming through early 2019.

SML has way too much on offer for a forward PE of 22...

[Leftfield]

Just out..... pretty impressive IMHO (good for both SML and ATM holders)

Synlait Milk (NZX: SML; ASX: SM1) has reported a half year net profit after tax (NPAT) of $40.7 million for the six months ending 31 January 2018.
This is compared to $10.6 million for the same period last year (H1 FY17).
Synlait’s Managing Director and CEO, John Penno, says the strong earnings growth of $30.1 million has been driven by increases in manufacture and sales of our highest margin products, as well as improved margins and earlier sales of our ingredients products.
“The growth trajectory of canned infant formula has continued with total consumer packaged volumes almost tripling from the same period last year and up 36% on the second half of last year,” he says.
“Our relationship with The a2 Milk Company™ continues to strengthen where we remain their exclusive manufacturer for the important Australia, New Zealand and China market.”

[JeremyALD]

Massive result. SP up to $10 I'd say

[minimoke]

Fonterra up as well. All rosy in Milk Land

[Nasi Goreng]

Great result. They do say the first half result is likely to be better than 2nd half... That is in the presentation, not the announcement so that did taper my excitement just a little. Happy holder.

[minimoke]

Also worth mentioning "

Total Net Debt for H1 FY18 was $49.7 million, a substantial reduction from


$147 million at the same time in FY17.

[winner69]

Fonterra up as well. All rosy in Milk Land

Fonterra seemed to be down ...quite a lot

[sb9]

Massive result. SP up to $10 I'd say

Massive result and these are my back of envelope calculation for sp. They've done NPAT $40.7mln for FH and have assumed they would do $50mln NPAT for SH (slightly higher growth). This gives us an annual NPAT of $90.7mln and on 179,223,028 shares on issue that equates to an EPS of 50.6c. And on a forward PE of 22, that would equate to price of $11.13 in 6 months time.

I Would say $10 is immediate short term target.

PS - Point me out if I've screwed up my numbers and calculation.

[minimoke]

Fonterra seemed to be down ...quite a lot
Depends which side of the equation "Farmers will welcome a forecast cash payout of $6.80 - $6.90, which would be the third highest in the last decade"

[Nasi Goreng]

They do say first half will be higher than second half. so I'm guessing $75M for the year.

[JeremyALD]

They do say first half will be higher than second half. so I'm guessing $75M for the year.

Yeah I'm picking around 70m NPAT full year. Still I think this deserves a PE of around 30 given its very strong growth.

[sb9]

Yeah I'm picking around 70m NPAT full year. Still I think this deserves a PE of around 30 given its very strong growth.

Ok, I'm picking they would do at least $80mln based on the fact that new Akl plant became operational in Oct last year and would've hit full scale as of now. Hence my assumption that they would do at least same as FH if not more. $80mln NPAT gives us 45c EPS and apply an appropriate PE as it deserves.

[Nasi Goreng]

Ok, I'm picking they would do at least $80mln based on the fact that new Akl plant became operational in Oct last year and would've hit full scale as of now. Hence my assumption that they would do at least same as FH if not more. $80mln NPAT gives us 45c EPS and apply an appropriate PE as it deserves.

I'm going to go off what they say SB9 lol

[sb9]

I'm going to go off what they say SB9 lol

Fair enough :) either way i'll be happy.

[NZSilver]

$11-12 once asx opens.

[suse]

BOOM straight to $9.30

[suse]

$11-12 once asx opens.

Do you really think so? Will be interesting to see how ATM goes today given their 8% stake

[minimoke]

BOOM straight to $9.30
First was $8.49. In for an interesting day!

[Absolute144]

First was $8.49. In for an interesting day!
Traders likey to cap until ASX open. looking forward to lunchtime...

[sb9]

Hope so for investors sake. Its been a frustrating five months since this was at that level in mid October basically in lock step with ATM at the same price and yet since that time ATM has put on another $6. Weird how the SP's rose in very close correlation for six months in early / mid 2017 and then this major divergence.

Wouldn't it be fascinating to know the commercial terms of the supply arrangements to ATM. I guessing its a multi year fixed margin contract based on wholesale value of raw A2 milk and ATM have been able to achieve serious consumer pricing power based on the scarcity of their product in the market.

Synlait’s Managing Director and CEO, John Penno, says the strong earnings growth of $30.1 million has been driven by increases in manufacture and sales of our highest margin products, as well as improved margins and earlier sales of our ingredients products.

Highlighted bit just for you Mr Beagle :)

[minimoke]

Unbelievable. Yesterday I had made $0.78 on my double down strategy. Today I am 10.3% up . I'm in the strange position of not being able to spend faster than I'm making on the sharemarket at the moment
This is like politics. A week is a long time. In three weeks I'm now 30% up on SML. Double double down and a dollop of patience paid off.

[Blendy]

And we are off again... Aus market open and back up to 9.13

[Beagle]

Synlait’s Managing Director and CEO, John Penno, says the strong earnings growth of $30.1 million has been driven by increases in manufacture and sales of our highest margin products, as well as improved margins and earlier sales of our ingredients products.

Highlighted bit just for you Mr Beagle :)

Congrats to holders. Good solid company with very sound long term growth prospects.

[sb9]

And we are off again... Aus market open and back up to 9.13

Yes, looks like Aussies want this one more than us, 3 times more volumes on ASX compared to that of NZX.

[hardt]

Yes, looks like Aussies want this one more than us, 3 times more volumes on ASX compared to that of NZX.

Aussies value growth far more aggressively than kiwis

[777]

Aussies value growth far more aggressively than kiwis

There are also a lot more day traders on the ASX which helps turnover.

[minimoke]

Looks like my personal Automatic Teller Machine is still hard out printing money again today.

[sb9]

Looks like my personal Automatic Teller Machine is still hard out printing money again today.

My pick is it won't stop until pushes past $10 mark in the short term. The guru analysts would've done their numbers y'day and will come with new revised target price and client recommendation.

[minimoke]

Can someone point me to a source to explain how these trading bots work. Jeez - they seem to create a heck of a lot of noise with their 1 share here, 1 share there action.

[Beagle]

If they do say a conservative $75m this year that's 42 cps so at $9.30 its on a current year PE of 22, (right in line with the market average). Looking ahead with a very clear runway for future growth I think this will grow substantially faster than the average NZX50 stock and I for one would be very surprised if they didn't do at the very least $100m for FY19 so the FY19 PE is just 16, perhaps quite a bit lower if growth surprises on the upside. Clear pathway for growth beyond FY19 too.

[winner69]

If they do say a conservative $75m this year that's 42 cps so at $9.30 its on a current year PE of 22, (right in line with the market average). Looking ahead with a very clear runway for future growth I think this will grow substantially faster than the average NZX50 stock and I for one would be very surprised if they didn't do at the very least $100m for FY19 so the FY19 PE is just 16, perhaps quite a bit lower if growth surprises on the upside. Clear pathway for growth beyond FY19 too.


You need to use some current guru analyst words.

One word quite often is ‘colour’.....like if we put some ‘colour’ around the FY19 result the clear pathway to growth will see them do $100m etc etc

Sounds more convincing

[Beagle]

You need to use some current guru analyst words.

One word quite often is ‘colour’.....like if we put some ‘colour’ around the FY19 result the clear pathway to growth will see them do $100m etc etc

Sounds more convincing

LOL nice one mate.

[sb9]

If they do say a conservative $75m this year that's 42 cps so at $9.30 its on a current year PE of 22, (right in line with the market average). Looking ahead with a very clear runway for future growth I think this will grow substantially faster than the average NZX50 stock and I for one would be very surprised if they didn't do at the very least $100m for FY19 so the FY19 PE is just 16, perhaps quite a bit lower if growth surprises on the upside. Clear pathway for growth beyond FY19 too.

I take it that you're back on the share register again, aye Beagle?

[sb9]

Sourced from Synlait thread (SM1) on HC, Bell Potter raises target price to A$10.45...which is about NZ $11.17 based current fx rate.

[Beagle]

I take it that you're back on the share register again, aye Beagle?

Its clear SML have their own strong long term growth story both inclusive and exclusive of ATM :)

[couta1]

Its clear SML have their own strong long term growth story both inclusive and exclusive of ATM :) This must be Beagle watch the paint dry, take three.:cool:

[Beagle]

This must be Beagle watch the paint dry, take three.:cool:

Got to try and learn new tricks like holding even when you do get bored but the last trick selling this at $7 and buying ATM instead at $9 last month was pretty clever with the former up ~ $2 and the latter up ~ $5 :cool:

See if I get some "percy patience" with this one this time. This old dog must learn a new trick by learning to embrace the peace, calmness and serenity of simply watching grass grow :)

[couta1]

Got to try and learn new tricks like holding even when you do get bored but the last trick selling this at $7 and buying ATM instead at $9 last month was pretty clever :cool: Yep, us old dogs can always learn a trick or three from even older dogs like Percy.

[winner69]

Sourced from Synlait thread (SM1) on HC, Bell Potter raises target price to A$10.45...which is about NZ $11.17 based current fx rate.

Sourced from Synlait thread on ST - BIC raises target price to NZ$12.49

[RupertBear]

See if I get some "percy patience" with this one this time. This old dog must learn a new trick by learning to embrace the peace, calmness and serenity of simply watching grass grow :)

"Percy patience"!! Love it! :lol::lol::lol: However a peaceful, calm, serene Beagle watching the grass grow is a frightening thought! :eek2: Would the real Mr Beagle please come back :p

[couta1]

"Percy patience"!! Love it! :lol::lol::lol: However a peaceful, calm, serene Beagle watching the grass grow is a frightening thought! :eek2: Would the real Mr Beagle please come back :p He will need a bottle of Caterbury Creme with A2 milk a day to keep the old Beagle at bay, especially once the painful boredom of this stock returns, even ironing a pile of clothes is exciting by comparison.

[couta1]

He will need a bottle of Caterbury Creme with A2 milk a day to keep the old Beagle at bay, especially once the painful boredom of this stock returns, even ironing a pile of clothes is exciting by comparison. No boredom today, but not the kinda action me old mate Beagle would be wanting, he might need to crack open another bottle of his favourite tipple again tonight. PS-Enjoying the opportune top up opportunity.

[Beagle]

The Beagle family have invested in a new recliner couch. Might as well be comfortable while watching the grass grow slowly.

[couta1]

The Beagle family have invested in a new recliner couch. Might as well be comfortable while watching the grass grow slowly. Not many people get paid handsomely while watching grass grow, with your favourite drink in one hand and the TV remote in the other.

[Beagle]

Not many people get paid handsomely while watching grass grow, with your favourite drink in one hand and the TV remote in the other. whilst cuddling up to one cute dog on each side of me. Life is very tough :D

[Ggcc]

Well I’m on board this one as well. Hope it does as well as A2 has done for me 😊

[BlackPeter]

Well I’m on board this one as well. Hope it does as well as A2 has done for me ��

Welcome on board. Hard to believe that I didn't buy more of them when they had their last "sale" (around $3 per share only 15 months ago), but hey - what a ride it was from there ...;

[Ggcc]

Welcome on board. Hard to believe that I didn't buy more of them when they had their last "sale" (around $3 per share only 15 months ago), but hey - what a ride it was from there ...;
Well my timing could have been better....... All these red arrows put a dampener on it. I am in for the long term so all should be fine and dandy maybe worth getting more if the price keeps dropping.
Great company and growing demand for their services and products

[sb9]

Strong push during pre-close to finish at $9.10.

[couta1]

Strong push during pre-close to finish at $9.10. A wee rush of over exuberance on the NZX, closed down at $8.93 equivalent on the ASX.

[RupertBear]

A wee rush of over exuberance on the NZX, closed down at $8.93 equivalent on the ASX.

Sold some the other day at $9.50 to lock in a wee profit. I will probably regret it but for some reason I feel safer holding ATM ;)

[couta1]

Sold some the other day at $9.50 to lock in a wee profit. I will probably regret it but for some reason I feel safer holding ATM ;) You sold them near the all time high so nice timing and you can't go broke taking a profit. ATM has a whole heap more potential but SML is still a good growth stock choice. PS-I hold a 1 to 5 ratio number of shares in SML/ATM.

[Ggcc]

You sold them near the all time high so nice timing and you can't go broke taking a profit. ATM has a whole heap more potential but SML is still a good growth stock choice. PS-I hold a 1 to 5 ratio number of shares in SML/ATM.
about the same ratio as I have at this point. I hope it works out!!!

[Beagle]

about the same ratio as I have at this point. I hope it works out!!!

LOL Great minds think alike...exactly the ratio I have between the two as well :)

[RupertBear]

LOL Great minds think alike...exactly the ratio I have between the two as well :)

Funnily enough that is my ratio as well :) but on a much smaller scale ;)

[RupertBear]

Hmmm seems I have sold out of my SML shares :eek2: looks like I put a sell order in last week at $8.60 which I forgot about and it was filled today :mellow: hmmm oh well might buy them back if they go down or might buy a milk shake instead ;)

[JeremyALD]

Hmmm seems I have sold out of my SML shares :eek2: looks like I put a sell order in last week at $8.60 which I forgot about and it was filled today :mellow: hmmm oh well might buy them back if they go down or might buy a milk shake instead ;)

Buy them back lol. Really reasonable at a forward PE of 20! One of the best value stocks on the NZX imo

[sb9]

Buy them back lol. Really reasonable at a forward PE of 20! One of the best value stocks on the NZX imo

Absolutely, no brainer imo.

Wait till you see confirmation of CFDA approval for their two other brands of IF, Akara and Pure Cantebury, that'll put rocket under the sp.

[RupertBear]

Thanks guys I will aim to buy them back and keep a more careful eye on my sell orders in future!

[couta1]

Thanks guys I will aim to buy them back and keep a more careful eye on my sell orders in future! I wouldn't worry RB, nothing exciting on the near horizon, play in the woods if you like. With the current volatility, this thing will be up and down like a yo-yo.

[sb9]

Further outlines their future growth potential and diversified range of products.

Synlait doubling lactoferrin capacity, new supply agreement

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/316408

[Leftfield]

Further outlines their future growth potential and diversified range of products.

Synlait doubling lactoferrin capacity, new supply agreement

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/316408

Interesting that the news release doesn't specify who the agreement is with........?

[nzsharetrade]

Nestlé ??:D

[minimoke]

Interesting that the news release doesn't specify who the agreement is with........?
Who supplies infant formula to China??

[sb9]

Interesting that the news release doesn't specify who the agreement is with........?

We can definitely rule out A2, my pick is its either with Bright Dairy or New Hope.

[Leftfield]

We can definitely rule out A2, my pick is its either with Bright Dairy or New Hope.

Not so sure on that.... why would you rule out ATM?
ATM due for an update by month end, so maybe in that? Either way ATM gets 9% of the action.;)

[sb9]

Not so sure on that.... why would you rule out ATM?
ATM due for an update by month end, so maybe in that? Either way ATM gets 9% of the action.;)

My reasoning was due to the fact that earlier agreements were quite specific by naming ATM as party involved. And an announcement to that affect was duly made by ATM at the same time.

Whereas in this case neither SML mentioned ATM nor there was an announcement by ATM to that affect. Hence my assumption that its probably not ATM in this case.

[Leftfield]

Thanks sb9 I suspect you are right..... but I remain ever hopeful!

[sb9]

More details on today’s announcement as per link below...

https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/354200/synlait-to-double-manufacturing-capacity-at-plant

[Yoda]

I wouldn't worry RB, nothing exciting on the near horizon, play in the woods if you like. With the current volatility, this thing will be up and down like a yo-yo.
Thats what i find facinaiting about the sharemarket, and oppinions. Somtimes we dont see it coming. Its amaizing how tight these secrets can be kept. One minite no news and then ...bam...
and yes, very up and down .

[couta1]

Thats what i find facinaiting about the sharemarket, and oppinions. Somtimes we dont see it coming. Its amaizing how tight these secrets can be kept. One minite no news and then ...bam...
and yes, very up and down . Got a hammering on the ASX today, especially during the last hour, the pattern on the sell side showing that someone is keen to sell.

[couta1]

Got a hammering on the ASX today, especially during the last hour, the pattern on the sell side showing that someone is keen to sell. 420k shares just went through on the NZX.

[Beagle]

420k shares just went through on the NZX.

That stake has probably been overhanging the market for a while. Bought a few more of these ultra boring shares yesterday. I'm learning to embrace the inner sleepy hound that just wants to sit on the porch and watch grass / wealth grow. How many companies are there on the NZX trading on a forward PE of just 20 with such a clearly articulated high growth plan for the next few years ? You folks do the SUM's, there's not many !

[Ggcc]

That stake has probably been overhanging the market for a while. Bought a few more of these ultra boring shares yesterday. I'm learning to embrace the inner sleepy hound that just wants to sit on the porch and watch grass / wealth grow. How many companies are there on the NZX trading on a forward PE of just 20 with such a clearly articulated high growth plan for the next few years ? You folks do the SUM's, there's not many !
It’s quite funny how this share is valued as an underperforming share by Reuters. This is what I mean by thinking rather than following what advisors believe a share is worth. I think in 5 years time this share will definitely please the crowd.....

[Ggcc]

Very large parcel has gone through this morning at a slight premium. Wonder if A2 are buying more shares

[nzsharetrade]

Very large parcel has gone through this morning at a slight premium. Wonder if A2 are buying more shares

how could you tell that?

[sb9]

Very large parcel has gone through this morning at a slight premium. Wonder if A2 are buying more shares

Yes, that's a biggie, 1.7mln shares transacted at $9.00 a piece.

[Ggcc]

how could you tell that?
ANZ Securities for the transaction, the rest is just a statement rather than fact.

[nzsharetrade]

ANZ Securities for the transaction, the rest is just a statement rather than fact.
Cool. thanks. I can see it now. it seems ASB is also slow.

[minimoke]

Yes, that's a biggie, 1.7mln shares transacted at $9.00 a piece.
Closed yesterday at 8.75. No discount for such a large parcel - just a premium.
Edit. Nice to see market crawling its way to $9.00 after the $8.80 open

[sb9]

Another decent day of volume with higher price. Looks like that seller might have finally disappeared and here we come close to the $10 mark.

Might keep an eye on any SSH notices that may come through.

[Ggcc]

It’s a great example of someone seeing the value of this company verses what Reuters are saying (underperform).? I will just use my head on this and watch it go up

[hardt]

It’s a great example of someone seeing the value of this company verses what Reuters are saying (underperform).? I will just use my head on this and watch it go up

I think Reuters only consolidate analyst coverage, most NZ analysts are not big backers of SML unfortunately... or at least the current valuation.

[petty]

I think Reuters only consolidate analyst coverage, most NZ analysts are not big backers of SML unfortunately... or at least the current valuation.

Any ideás why SML doesnt get the love from the insto's or analysts quite like A2? I get the growth isnt quite the same but still one of the best performers on the NZX. Coupled with the performance over the past year is a pretty clear path to continued growth. Hard to find a great deal of NZX companies in the same category

[sb9]

Any ideás why SML doesnt get the love from the insto's or analysts quite like A2? I get the growth isnt quite the same but still one of the best performers on the NZX. Coupled with the performance over the past year is a pretty clear path to continued growth. Hard to find a great deal of NZX companies in the same category

One reason I think of is "very low free float and hence low liquidity".

[petty]

One reason I think of is "very low free float and hence low liquidity".

Got ya, by very low free float you mean limited number of shares available for purchase? (excuse my ignorance)

Do you think majority foreign ownership contributes?

[Yoda]

Got ya, by very low free float you mean limited number of shares available for purchase? (excuse my ignorance)

Do you think majority foreign ownership contributes?
When a company issues shares, not all of them are made available to the public for trading. A big chunk is typically held by the promoters or the government, which is not open to public trading. The portion of shares that is publicly traded is referred to as the ‘free float’ or ‘public float’ of the company.

free float explanation --old article
Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/45393465.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/45393465.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst)

[sb9]

Also posted on ATM thread re today's announcement of ATM's expansion into South Korea..

"The a2 Milk Company™ product range will be sourced from Australia and New Zealand, with nutritional products produced by our key supply partner, Synlait Milk Limited. Initial sales are expected to commence during the second half of calendar year 2018. "

Can't believe the sp is still under $10...

[RTM]

Can't believe the sp is still under $10...

And I can't believe my luck with >300% gain ! Not sure I can wait for $10.
Does this mean that Synlait will be processing Australian Origin products ? Or do all the nutritional products come from NZ Operations ?

[sb9]

Seems someone is happy to pay slight premium over today’s closing price as seen by an off-market transaction post market closed for 300k shares at $9.509 a piece.

[Beagle]

That stake has probably been overhanging the market for a while. Bought a few more of these ultra boring shares yesterday. I'm learning to embrace the inner sleepy hound that just wants to sit on the porch and watch grass / wealth grow. How many companies are there on the NZX trading on a forward PE of just 20 with such a clearly articulated high growth plan for the next few years ? You folks do the SUM's, there's not many !


Yes, that's a biggie, 1.7mln shares transacted at $9.00 a piece.


Seems someone is happy to pay slight premium over today’s closing price as seen by an off-market transaction post market closed for 300k shares at $9.509 a piece.
Okay... I confess I topped up with a few more.
Interesting price action this last week since we had two large parcels go through recently. Overhang gone ?

[percy]

I was speaking with an early SML investor this afternoon.He owned a very successful small goods firm in ChCh.
What impressed and still impresses him is the way SML do their business.Very much working with farmers to keep their cows in good condition,and best practice all through the business.

[sb9]

Okay... I confess I topped up with a few more.
Interesting price action this last week since we had two large parcels go through recently. Overhang gone ?

You mean all of those large parcels and some more..you better put out a SSH notice then :p

Good on ya.

[sb9]

Strong finish on ASX at A$ 9.17 which is NZ $9.72 equivalent based on current cross rate.

$10 price target isn’t very far away.

[JoeGrogan]

Strong finish on ASX at A$ 9.17 which is NZ $9.72 equivalent based on current cross rate.

$10 price target isn’t very far away.

Another record closing high on the ASX, think thats 3 times in the past week. Charts on the verge of another breakout

[Beagle]

Another record closing high on the ASX, think thats 3 times in the past week. Charts on the verge of another breakout

From a TA perspective this is looking really good. The fundamental's are also really compelling (2019 forward PE is only mid teens) and they have clearly articulated plans for substantial growth ahead over the next few years both with A2 products and through many other channels. Are we starting to see the smart money moving to having a bob each way on this and ATM in equal proportion ?

[minimoke]

Are we starting to see the smart money moving to having a bob each way on this and ATM in equal proportion ?Dont know the term - but isn't that a bob one way and all looking good

[JoeGrogan]

From a TA perspective this is looking really good. The fundamental's are also really compelling (2019 forward PE is only mid teens) and they have clearly articulated plans for substantial growth ahead over the next few years both with A2 products and through many other channels. Are we starting to see the smart money moving to having a bob each way on this and ATM in equal proportion ?

The volume over the last week (and the chart) definitely shows strong accumulation from the smart money. The fundamentals are just as good, if not better than BAL and A2 in my opinion (i own all three), and as you say management's clear communication to investors is top notch.

SM1 (ASX) chart, ascending triangle has formed, and was broken through on yesterdays close. However, needs some solid volume above 9.17 to confirm a breakout.

9633

[sb9]

Oh dear, looks like NZX price is bit slow to react to ASX price currently at $9.25 which equates to $9.84 on current cross rates.

May be someone didn't realise the fact that NZD dropped slightly overnight against AUD.

Anyway, seem to be closing the gap now...

[Hectorplains]

Oh dear, looks like NZX price is bit slow to react to ASX price currently at $9.25 which equates to $9.84 on current cross rates.

May be someone didn't realise the fact that NZD dropped slightly overnight against AUD.

Anyway, seem to be closing the gap now...

and...racing this time!

[minimoke]

Those pesky little bot things seem to be up to their usual mischief

[sb9]

Will we see $10 today, here's hoping it'll..

[minimoke]

Will we see $10 today, here's hoping it'll..Patience young grasshopper. In time it will come.

[Beagle]

Patience young grasshopper. In time it will come.

^^^^^^
This and plenty of it...a really essential part of any good investment plan. The older I get the more I have realised this very important fact. This a $20 stock in a few years, I am certain of that, just sit back and watch your wealth grow. Very boring, but nonetheless very satisfying.

[minimoke]

Jeez - no patience required. Ping $10 done!
Edit. And only 7 sellers in the queue. Something's up.

[Ggcc]

Jeez - no patience required. Ping $10 done!
Edit. And only 7 sellers in the queue. Something's up.
As I said earlier A2 is probably increasing their stake

[Beagle]

Plenty of demand for shares that's for sure. I topped up yet again this morning and moved up to holding an equal number of ATM and SML shares.
I still think at $10 on a 2019 PE of 16-17 (on my forecast range) that its very good long term buying for this company with its very strong growth plans.

[hardt]

As I said earlier A2 is probably increasing their stake

Probably the worst use of capital for A2 to increase their stake...

I will eat my hat if they are

[sb9]

Jeez - no patience required. Ping $10 done!
Edit. And only 7 sellers in the queue. Something's up.

Told ya, it should've been here few weeks back.


Probably the worst use of capital for A2 to increase their stake...

I will eat my hat if they are

Agree to that, don't think A2 would be increasing their stake.

[Ggcc]

Probably the worst use of capital for A2 to increase their stake...

I will eat my hat if they are
Haha we will see at the end of this rise there should be a ssh announcement shortly.
It may not be in the best interest of A2 to invest into Synlait, but to maybe secure preferential treatment they may need a more dominant vote at Synlait which is better for A2

[couta1]

I reckon A2 is now cheap compared to SML, forget PE relativity, it's all about world wide potential. PS-A2 will need a lot more supply going forward that SML can provide.

[Valuegrowth]

There had been strong demand for food related stocks in the Australasian market as well. In fact some milk and meat companies in the Asian-Pacific region not only have outperformed the broader market but also have become multibaggers during fast three years.

However, at some point, I expect correction from those stocks as well. In other words over extended stocks could have some short term risk. Strong balance sheet firms in this sector will outperform others in the long run.

In the meantime another Chinese own milk company having support of Alibaba has an ambitious plan to list on the NZX within the next 3-5 years.

[sb9]

Sp back to where it belongs...

[minimoke]

Sp back to where it belongs...
Might just see $10 again today.

Edit. Ding $10.00 done. Onwards and upwards