SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[sb9]

The 2 year SML chart is looking very good at the moment. The 1st year being a very well defined down trend with lots of lower lows each time finding resistance at the 100 day moving avg, the trend now is up and finding support at the 100 day MA. It looks like it will make new highs soon.

Good finish today albeit on light volume. Some punters are keen perhaps?

[sb9]

Looks like an uptrend forming...anyone here have an opinion about the possible capacity upgrade?

[Nasi Goreng]

I think there is plenty of scope for growth over the next few years. Not sure about capacity and where they are currently at vs demand.

One thing for sure, the uptrend is already in place. You won't find many better examples than how this has bounced off the 100 day moving avg. Looks to be strong.

[sb9]

I think there is plenty of scope for growth over the next few years. Not sure about capacity and where they are currently at vs demand.

One thing for sure, the uptrend is already in place. You won't find many better examples than how this has bounced off the 100 day moving avg. Looks to be strong.

I think there's plenty of anecdotal evidence thro' A2 milk the IF demand is very strong. Let's wait and see when they announce results in Sep.

Noticed there's a big off-market transaction of 600k parcel went thro' at 345.

[Nasi Goreng]

I think an independent like Synlait has so many options going into the future. If they can stay on track, I think we could see profits triple over an extended period. PE of 18 is cheap in my opinion.

[BlackPeter]

Not sure about the current excitement ... I guess SML is a good company, great management but certainly a cyclical stock in a cyclical sector. I'd see their current share price as fair ... and as history shows they have a tendency for over- and under swingers.

So - yes, traders still might be able to make a dollar of the current SP - for investors I would see the current entry as a bit high.

They might well rise to the $4+ they reached before, but until they reduce their quite high level of debts and move into a position to pay dividends would I expect the share price to oscillate depending on the markets mood of the day.

I probably go at some stage back in ... but would hope that this is when the price has again a 2 in front. Who knows - another Chinese tremble, a deterioration of the world milk price or just some local jitter might do.

Even if their income is not really milk price dependent ... their balance sheet is. They have already at current a lot of additional debt in their books just to prop up the accounts of their farmers. Good on them to support their suppliers, but not sure, whether this is the time to pay top dollars for their shares.

[sb9]

Hoping that the PGW and FSF will have a contagious affect on this one too...

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/SML/announcements/287131

Just one word..."Stupendous"....

[BlackPeter]

https://nzx.com/companies/SML/announcements/287131

Just one word..."Stupendous"....

Agreed - looks like I underestimated them ... nice profit upgrade combined with reduced leverage (though still at the higher side ...). Sounds good.

Ah well, can't win them all ;)

[Absolute144]

Looks to be a milk shortage , ahem, i mean share shortage.

[sb9]

Agreed - looks like I underestimated them ... nice profit upgrade combined with reduced leverage (though still at the higher side ...). Sounds good.

Ah well, can't win them all ;)

Wish I had bought bit more around that 310 level....this surely worth $4+ now...:t_up::D

[BlackPeter]

Agreed - looks like I underestimated them ... nice profit upgrade combined with reduced leverage (though still at the higher side ...). Sounds good.

Ah well, can't win them all ;)

On a second thought - did their leverage ratio really improve? What baseline do they use? They finished FY2015 with a liabilities to assets ratio of 70.4%; Assuming their forecast leverage ratio is now 2.5 ... this would mean liabilities (2.5) to assets (2.5+1) = 71.4%;

I know, there are many creative ways of accounting ... which one do they use? For me this looks like an increase (though small) of an anyway high leverage, certainly not a healthy change of the balance sheet.

[Absolute144]

What would you guys like to see done with the profit? They could announce dividend policy. Shareprice should climb substantially. Then, after some time, offer SPP to raise capital for further investment in drying plant.

[BlackPeter]

What would you guys like to see done with the profit? They could announce dividend policy. Shareprice should climb substantially. Then, after some time, offer SPP to raise capital for further investment in drying plant.

Well, in the last handful of AGM's I remember they always indicated that they are a growth company - i.e. intending to reinvest any money earned (and I think 2 years ago they even mentioned that they still might need more money to keep growing).

Looking into their books I think that paying off debts (leverage above 70%) and any investment into growth clearly must be priority over paying dividends.

Anyway - just the view from the sidelines ...

[Nasi Goreng]

Awesome! I have been busy all morning and just saw this now. I've been a believer for a while and think there is way more potential. Its funny how this is one of the quieter threads on ST and IMO one of the best investments.

[tzbang]

I too have been hanging in there believing good things were in the post. I've never understood why this stock is so quiet here.

[Nasi Goreng]

I too have been hanging in there believing good things were in the post. I've never understood why this stock is so quiet here.

It doesn't really matter does it... but it is interesting in light of other threads... if you like it, own it, lock it away.

[ratkin]

I too have been hanging in there believing good things were in the post. I've never understood why this stock is so quiet here.

Most of the best stocks are quiet, the noisy ones are either already owned or just hot air. Look at all the pages Wynard group has.
Its like comvita, i owned it for years and nobody ever wanted to talk about it. Then it shoots up to Twelve bucks and suddenly every man and his dog are on it

[Lease]

Total Number of Shares
146,341,197








Prospective Profit 2016
34,000,000








Prospective EPS 2016
0.23








Prospective PE at 12/08/2016
15.93








Last four years Average PE
30








Potential SP upward
88%



I think SML is still worth buying

[sb9]

Total Number of Shares

146,341,197









Prospective Profit 2016

34,000,000









Prospective EPS 2016

0.23









Prospective PE at 12/08/2016

15.93









Last four years Average PE

30









Potential SP upward

88%




I think SML is still worth buying

Agree 100%, even if we were to attribute PE of 20 the price should be $4.60 in near term and based on outlook and further updates when they announce results next month it could even track higher say close to $5 mark...but I would be happy with small steps with breaking $4 mark first....Happy Days :)

[sb9]

Hmm..wonder what's happening today, may be someone has got a mandate to get out quickly?? Anyone has clues....

[Nasi Goreng]

Synlait is quite an illiquid stock so volumes are normally quite light and traders can send the price down just like this. Consider it a buying opportunity if you want more. Nothing has fundamentally changed since the announcement last week and end of year results are not too far away.

The increase in profits have mainly come in the 2nd half of the year, so when you look at the annual result, it will mask that. I expect FY17 to be a bumper year and with all that cashflow being created, it will create some good opportunities. Just hold onto it and enjoy the growth.

[sb9]

True, guess someone needed funds in a hurry I take it. Otherwise just few days after announcing a bumper upgrade and great outlook going forward, you would wonder why someone would get out so cheaply....

[sb9]

Bit perplexed to be honest at the moment seeing ATM on fire and little announcement from SML re supply agreement with ATM hasn't put a spark in sp.

[tzbang]

Same.. they announce a renewed partnership level which I would think should further increase interest.. and the SP tanks. What gives?
Tempted to buy more

[sb9]

Same.. they announce a renewed partnership level which I would think should further increase interest.. and the SP tanks. What gives?
Tempted to buy more

I'm really surprised at the prolonged weakness in sp after the big profit upgrade provided on 12/08. Got stronger for few days after that up to 380 mark I think then drifted back down.

The price on day (11/08) before upgrade was 346 and today's price is 356, so is the big profit upgrade just worth 10c??

Even with A2 going stronger recently, it hasn't really pushed the sentiment for SML though, wonder why?

Anyway, all will be revealed on 19th when they announce FY results..

[Lease]

I'm really surprised at the prolonged weakness in sp after the big profit upgrade provided on 12/08. Got stronger for few days after that up to 380 mark I think then drifted back down.

The price on day (11/08) before upgrade was 346 and today's price is 356, so is the big profit upgrade just worth 10c??

Even with A2 going stronger recently, it hasn't really pushed the sentiment for SML though, wonder why?



Anyway, all will be revealed on 19th when they announce FY results..

As long as you are confident this is a good company, the only requirement for you is to be patient.

[sb9]

As long as you are confident this is a good company, the only requirement for you is to be patient.

100% agree, very confident on their future outlook.

[xafalcon]

I'm really surprised at the prolonged weakness in sp after the big profit upgrade provided on 12/08. Got stronger for few days after that up to 380 mark I think then drifted back down.

The price on day (11/08) before upgrade was 346 and today's price is 356, so is the big profit upgrade just worth 10c??

Even with A2 going stronger recently, it hasn't really pushed the sentiment for SML though, wonder why?

Anyway, all will be revealed on 19th when they announce FY results..

Google "Danone Synlait Yashili"

Read the recent articles

Then extrapolate how third party manufacturing will likely be allocated in the future

[Nasi Goreng]

oh no, another negative dairy post by xafalcon... run for the hills. xafalcon been bearish on Synlait for a lot longer than those articles have been out, just look back a few pages and make your own mind up. Those that haven't listened have done quite well :-)

[sb9]

Google "Danone Synlait Yashili"

Read the recent articles

Then extrapolate how third party manufacturing will likely be allocated in the future

Aware of those industry trends, however quite comfortable with SML's position.

[smalltrader]

6 days to FY results. Will there be more surprise coming up? Any guess?

[sb9]

6 days to FY results. Will there be more surprise coming up? Any guess?

Hmmm...the results are already known from their recent trading update, kinda....
However, Mr Market is not sure about something, guess we've to wait till Monday to know the full story.

[Absolute144]

Hmmm...the results are already known from their recent trading update, kinda....
However, Mr Market is not sure about something, guess we've to wait till Monday to know the full story.

Mr market still thinks there's a possibility of capital raise at a discount to trading price on market.

[underworld]

So trading halt and no trade for entitlement. Is this some sort of confidence that they have? Any comment on the release?

[sb9]

Mr market still thinks there's a possibility of capital raise at a discount to trading price on market.

It sure does from this morning's announcements..plenty of numbers and information to digest from all those, very happy!!!

[sb9]

So trading halt and no trade for entitlement. Is this some sort of confidence that they have? Any comment on the release?

Well they would've good vibes from underwriter about book build and also Bright Dairy taking up the rights offer. As usual very paltry entitlement for retails holders 2 for every 9 shared held, heck good price though @$3 a piece.

[winner69]

It sure does from this morning's announcements..plenty of numbers and information to digest from all those, very happy!!!

All looking good eh sb9

You got truck loads of this?

[sb9]

All looking good eh sb9

You got truck loads of this?

All good winner, wish I had bought more around the BREXIT sale time. Happy with my modest holding though, took a position on this one based on A2's solid growth numbers with Synlait being core supplier for them.

[Xerof]

so you are really Jarred D W69 :cool::t_up:

[winner69]

so you are really Jarred D W69 :cool::t_up:

Read my book yet?

That quote is often attributed to Buffet but he probably borrowed it from somebody else

[Xerof]

No, I just read his weekly broadsheet.

He deserves a box around the ears though for not clarifying that cash is an option to buy something cheaper in the future, if it's in a confirmed uptrend, otherwise he's just buying a set of steak knives isn't he?

It can also be used to buy something dearer in the future too, (see rider above re trend).

You can quote me on that in your next weekly

Oh it's Synlait thread

Pleased to see G Milne is dropping Genesis board seat to put more time into this growth company

[BlackPeter]

OK - good results (but as expected and previously announced ...) and another cap rise (not previously announced, but somewhat expected as well). Looking into the expansion plans ... they start talking about a second site (which is in my view highly sensible, but not paid by this cap rise).

They expect 2017 to be similar to 2016 (which might indicate even a drop in EPS due to the increased number of shares). They say 2018 should be good (new investment will bring some return ... and hopefully no turbulence in the milk market) - this might be a good time to announce the next cap rise to fund the second site?"

In my view - SML is a good company and will continue to grow, but it is a long term play. No dividends at the horizon.

It will be a long time until they announce the next spectacular result (2018 if the stars are aligned)?

Discl: not holding at current, but watching. IMHO worthwhile buying if & when the price is right (not now ...).

[percy]

BP,
Thank you commentary.
I too watch them,but have not been tempted to buy back in.[yet]

[ratkin]

What the timeline for the rights? Too lazy to go to po.box and see if post arrived

[Baaarney]

Timeline below, nothing gets mailed out Until the 22nd (so too early to check your PO box)

19 September 2016 - Announcement of Offer - Trading Halt begins
21 September 2016 - Record date (5:00pm (NZ time))
22 September 2016 - Trading Halt ends on open of trading
- Retail Entitlement Offer opens
- Offer Document and Entitlement and Acceptance Forms are mailed out
11 October 2016 - Closing date for Retail Entitlement Offer at 5:00pm
13 October 2016 - Trading Halt begins - Retail Bookbuild
14 October 2016 - Trading Halt ends on open of trading
17 October 2016 - Settlement and allotment date for Retail Entitlement Offer, Retail Bookbuild and certain institutional shareholders

[ratkin]

Thanks for that very helpful

[sb9]

Got the retail offer (rights) docs in mail y'day...

Noticed some big pre-market trades this morning..



1
2
9:03:00 am
320
250,000
$800,000



2
1
9:01:37 am
320
4,000,374
$12,801,197

[ratkin]

Got the retail offer (rights) docs in mail y'day...



The online payment option was great, did not even have to walk to post oiffice. Not a huge premium to current price, but better than nothing

[tzbang]

The way things are going the SP will equal the offer price soon. I guess the market doesn't like a capital raise but the long term growth look very positive to me.

[ratkin]

The way things are going the SP will equal the offer price soon. I guess the market doesn't like a capital raise but the long term growth look very positive to me.

Yeah maybe it would have been better to wait until the last minute,unlikely but you never know the price could dip under Three if something dramatic happened

[theace]

The way things are going the SP will equal the offer price soon. I guess the market doesn't like a capital raise but the long term growth look very positive to me.

Being lazy ... what was the offer price?

[Hectorplains]

Being lazy ... what was the offer price?

2 for 9 @ $3

[tzbang]

Is anyone here taking up the offer?

[Hectorplains]

Is anyone here taking up the offer?

Yep, already done. The online process is a breeze. I'm not concerned at current weak sp, company's trading well.

[sb9]

Will be applying for mine next week online, looks very easy to do that way.

In the short term looks like it may trade in the 320-330 range...

[Baaarney]

I applied earlier in the week. The online process couldn't have been easier

[Lease]

Don't understand why SP not hike. Last year eps 7C, the lowest SP is $2.26, PE was still over 30. This year eps 23C, now PE is under 14! Isn't it largely under-valued?

[Hectorplains]

Don't understand why SP not hike. Last year eps 7C, the lowest SP is $2.26, PE was still over 30. This year eps 23C, now PE is under 14! Isn't it largely under-valued?

Growth for next year is predicted to be subdued, albeit with better for 2018.

[BlackPeter]

Growth for next year is predicted to be subdued, albeit with better for 2018.

Yes, this is one of the reasons. The other - they mentioned already that their planned second site is not covered by the recent cap rise. They will need more money (and lots of it). Good company, but certainly in for the long game.

[Lease]

2017 growth is modest as Synlait doesn't have sufficient capacity to meet rising demand, thus they need to raise capital to build more capacity.

They need more funds which are required for further business development.

These are all OK for a growing company and the Company financial performance has proved they have kept their promise.

How come investors ignore the facts?

[Hectorplains]

2017 growth is modest as Synlait doesn't have sufficient capacity to meet rising demand, thus they need to raise capital to build more capacity.

They need more funds which are required for further business development.

These are all OK for a growing company and the Company financial performance has proved they have kept their promise.

How come investors ignore the facts?

I don't think that they are. I invested in this company from day dot, I expect that the sp will move slowly north over the next few months (all things being equal.) The reality is they've got major capex and growth is going to be lower next year; you'd expect the PE to par back from previously. There's no dividend in the foreseeable either - so they haven't benefited from yield chasers.

[Lease]

I don't think that they are. I invested in this company from day dot, I expect that the sp will move slowly north over the next few months (all things being equal.) The reality is they've got major capex and growth is going to be lower next year; you'd expect the PE to par back from previously. There's no dividend in the foreseeable either - so they haven't benefited from yield chasers.


If PE went back to previous level, SP would be $7. Isn't is exciting?

[ratkin]

If PE went back to previous level, SP would be $7. Isn't is exciting?

This is pie in the sky stuff, they seem a decent enough company, but it is no get rich quick scheme. No dividend, still fairly high debt and having to ask US for money instead of THEM giving us any.

Still they should have a decent enough future, I added to holding with the capital raise, but certainly not expecting any spectacular returns. This one is for patient money only

[Lease]

This is pie in the sky stuff, they seem a decent enough company, but it is no get rich quick scheme. No dividend, still fairly high debt and having to ask US for money instead of THEM giving us any.

Still they should have a decent enough future, I added to holding with the capital raise, but certainly not expecting any spectacular returns. This one is for patient money only

If you expect dividend, you should buy Air NZ, Spark, Fonterra, etc, not Synlait. Synlait is a fast-growing company which is spending more funds to expand business. Interest cover ration is over 4, debt/equity ration is less than 1. Financially quite sound.

I just expect we, as investors, are compensated by SP appreciation. But not happen yet.

[Nasi Goreng]

Just wait 5 years or so, starts up rarely pay dividends but wait to see what you will get 5 to 10 years from now.

[sb9]

Last day for the retail offer to close, expect the sp to raise steadily after this.

[BlackPeter]

Last day for the retail offer to close, expect the sp to raise steadily after this.

Longtime I agree that SP is likely to rise (at some stage ...). However, it feels currently quite ahead of itself - and given next years results and another likely CR in a couple of years, it won't be a walk in the sunshine.

If you look a the typical pattern for CR's - I'd say it is more likely that over the next couple of months there will be opportunities to buy the share below the cost of the current CR price. There always are people who think to make a quick buck come CR time ... and there are always some of them who get afterwards cold feet (or just need to sell for whatever reason).

Interesting Analyst update on 4 traders: Share downgraded to "underperform";

I believe this company will be at some stage a good and solid buy, but we are not there yet ...

Discl: waiting ...

[ratkin]

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bega-cheese-dumped-as-baby-formula-venture-sours-20161024-gs9rbc.html

Behind weakess?

[iluab]

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bega-cheese-dumped-as-baby-formula-venture-sours-20161024-gs9rbc.html

Behind weakess?

Expect so, creates an uber bargain for those anticipating a re-rating when SML joins the ASX before xmas. Forward PE is presently 12 or so and analysts have just revalued SML up to $3.74. I think we could see a bit of multiple expansion on the ASX also as the aussie insto's buy in, say up to 15.

http://www.4-traders.com/SYNLAIT-MILK-LTD-14391761/consensus/

I think we could even see a pop when they announce the ASX listing date, that must be soon given a pre-xmas launch, and they will want to launch on the ASX prior to the November agm so as to have something to brag about on the day I reckon.

[BlackPeter]

Expect so, creates a an uber bargain for those anticipating a re-rating when SML joins the ASX before xmas. Forward PE is presently 12% or so and analysts have just revalued SML up to $3.74.

http://www.4-traders.com/SYNLAIT-MILK-LTD-14391761/consensus/

I think we could even see a pop when they announce the ASX listing date, that must be soon given a pre-xmas launch, and they will want to launch on the ASX prior to the November agm so as to have something to brag about on the day I reckon.

LOL - this price target of $3.74 is coupled with a recommendation of "underperform".

Now - I don't know whether the analysts are right with their "underperform" rating or with their price target, but they can't have it both, can they? Probably just a typo ... they really meant $2.74:p;

What I do know however is, that it is a myth to expect an ASX listing to automatically push the SP up. Yes, there are some (few) examples where it did, but it can do less pleasant things to your SP as well. If you want to know more about that - have a look at PPH or (just happening) TIL. Both downtrends are inspirational and can be highly educational (for whoever wants to learn).

Discl: not holding;

[iluab]

I wouldn’t underestimate the demand from A2M retail investors alone, Synlait are quite well known already on the aussie market as a quality production co and there will be insto and retail anticipation already brewing because of that. We are not talking about scented candles or spec tech co's here.

I see it more of an MHI type compliance listing, lot’s of pent anticipation for an established co, and a pop to full value perhaps over valuation as the market takes it up.

Time will tell, I’m buying at these levels, for the long term, perhaps with an ASX kick start.

[ratkin]

What I do know however is, that it is a myth to expect an ASX listing to automatically push the SP up. Yes, there are some (few) examples where it did, but it can do less pleasant things to your SP as well.

Discl: not holding;

Most of the time it is just a wasted cost with very little benefit.

[iluab]

Given Synlait were growing WMP, AMF and Lactoferrin production capacity during the downturn, this can only and positively to FY17 earnings guidance.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1611/S00059/dairy-product-prices-rally-as-whole-milk-powder-soars.htm

8421

[BlackPeter]

Given Synlait were growing WMP, AMF and Lactoferrin production capacity during the downturn, this can only and positively to FY17 earnings guidance.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1611/S00059/dairy-product-prices-rally-as-whole-milk-powder-soars.htm

8421

Not really. Synlaits business is basically "clipping the ticket". They don't make money from selling milk, but they get paid for processing milk, whatever the milk price.

Obviously - they only can exist if farmers get enough money to keep supplying them (i.e. there is some value for them in a sustainable milk price), but other than that (and potentially a mood change re dairy industry) would a lower milk price even be good for them (increasing demand and with that throughput).

[iluab]

Not really. Synlaits business is basically "clipping the ticket". They don't make money from selling milk, but they get paid for processing milk, whatever the milk price.

Obviously - they only can exist if farmers get enough money to keep supplying them (i.e. there is some value for them in a sustainable milk price), but other than that (and potentially a mood change re dairy industry) would a lower milk price even be good for them (increasing demand and with that throughput).

I think you will find if you actually read the annual reports that Synlait margins increase significantly with GDT, not calling you out, just saying.

In 2013 at the GDT peak gross margins were 27%, they droped to 12% at the GDT lows and are now on the rise again as GDT recovers, presently circa 20%.

[BlackPeter]

I think you will find if you actually read the annual reports that Synlait margins increase significantly with GDT, not calling you out, just saying.

In 2013 at the GDT peak gross margins were 27%, they droped to 12% at the GDT lows and are now on the rise again as GDT recovers, presently circa 20%.

Didn't check your numbers, but if they are correct, than this is probably more a reflection on high demand for processing milk powder than on high milk prices.

Obviously - there is some correlation, but the margins for producers (farmers) and processors (Synlait or Fonterra) are not 1-to-1 connected.

Sure - if there is an oversupply of milk AND processing capacity, margins will go down for farmers and processors.

The opposite is true if both supply and processing capacity is short (margins for both will go up).

However - if milk prices go up (due to a shortage of supply) than there is no reason for processing margins to go up (as long as there is sufficient processing capacity).

As well - if milk demand increases but there is plenty of supply (remember all these US farmers currently spilling their milk) but processing capacity is short, milk will stay low but processing margins will go up.

Synlait is for milk what a refinery (e.g. NZR) is for oil ... high petrol prices don't necessarily mean high refinery profits and vice versa.

And if you don't trust me ... John Penno confirmed various times that Synlait's profits are correlated with the processed volume, not with the price of milk paid to farmers ...

[iluab]

Margins are also a function of efficiencies, Synlait have also recently constructed a forth dryer which is coming up to full capacity. Net margins at FY reporting were at record highs at 6.3%, who knew aside from well researched investors.

My financial interpretation is that Synlait have become a pretty slick efficient operation during the GDT downturn, and have not been deterred from increasing capacity at a time when the sector has been suppressed, they profitably doubled their value added lactoferrin capacity alone during that time.

On a sector cyclical basis there is not going to be a better time to BUY Synlait in my opinion, if one believes GDT has stabilized or is recovering to mean reversion levels.

Add to that the pending ASX listing which, if nothing else, will have the Aussie investors and insto's determining fair value, analyst consensus is presently $3.74, although I could easily see retail investors taking that into the $4 overvaluation range, just as they did with established earners MHJ and A2M when they listed.

Synlait as a growth co has a forward PE of only 15 on the sleepy NZX, Bega Cheese on the ASX as a cyclical has a forward PE of 25.3.

Boom times ahead for Synlait, mark this post.

[BlackPeter]

Margins are also a function of efficiencies, Synlait have also recently constructed a forth dryer which is coming up to full capacity. Net margins at FY reporting were at record highs at 6.3%, who knew aside from well researched investors.

My financial interpretation is that Synlait have become a pretty slick efficient operation during the GDT downturn, and have not been deterred from increasing capacity at a time when the sector has been suppressed, they profitably doubled their value added lactoferrin capacity alone during that time.

On a sector cyclical basis there is not going to be a better time to BUY Synlait in my opinion, if one believes GDT has stabilized or is recovering to mean reversion levels.

Add to that the pending ASX listing which, if nothing else, will have the Aussie investors and insto's determining fair value, analyst consensus is presently $3.74, although I could easily see retail investors taking that into the $4 overvaluation range, just as they did with established earners MHJ and A2M when they listed.

Synlait as a growth co has a forward PE of only 15 on the sleepy NZX, Bega Cheese on the ASX as a cyclical has a forward PE of 25.3.

Boom times ahead for Synlait, mark this post.

I assume you hold and want to get others to push the SP up - right? Remember - dairy is very cyclical - and what goes up will come down.

I do agree that SML is a good company, though last time I visited them (last AGM) they still had some problems with their production line. I don't know whether their SP has now bottomed out (though the trend line does not really look that way - nice down trend, isn't it?). Typically (but not always) after CR's goes the SP below the issue price - and I think it will do this here as well.

Anyway - I do know that they will need more money than they raised this time (and 2018 might be a good time for that), i.e. whatever you are buying at the moment is just a "right" to put in more money next time.

Still - for the impatient investor it might be a good time to buy in when the current bottom is confirmed (i.e. not yet).

For the more patient a good time might be after the next CR (to fund their second site).

Whatever the respective investor profile - I don't think there is any rush. Just sit back, enjoy the action and watch the SP dropping - and (if you are an inpatient investor) buy in when you notice the trend to change.

Discl: not holding - and enjoying the show ;)

[iluab]

I think you may find with some research that the $300m for the next expansion is roughly allocated to one third equity, one third debt (which has been reducing) and one third from forward earnings. So, NO, it's unlikely we will see another capital raising within the next couple of years, thats done now.

Agree the NZX will take the shareprice to the CR at $3 on low local day trader volume as it does, the next catylst will correct that, and we are due for an ASX announcement and earnings guidance next month which I'm expecting to suprise to the upside.

I'm not interested in trying to time low volume bottoms, waste of ones time really, anytime about here for an entry is optimal from a long term growth or value investors perspective.

Miss out if you wish, or be in, it really matters not to me, but the upside potential on a balanced risk reward basis is pretty damn good right now for those that do.

[BlackPeter]

I think you may find with some research that the $300m for the next expansion is roughly allocated to one third equity, one third debt (which has been reducing) and one third from forward earnings. So, NO, it's unlikely we will see another capital raising within the next couple of years, thats done now.

Agree the NZX will take the shareprice to the CR at $3 on low local day trader volume as it does, the next catylst will correct that, and we are due for an ASX announcement and earnings guidance next month which I'm expecting to suprise to the upside.

I'm not interested in trying to time low volume bottoms, waste of ones time really, anytime about here for an entry is optimal from a long term growth or value investors perspective.

Miss out if you wish, or be in, it really matters not to me, but the upside potential on a balanced risk reward basis is pretty damn good right now for those that do.

Just remind me:

Where have we heard before that the ASX entry will change everything? Right: TIL, PPH, ....
Why do you expect earnings to be above expectations?

Anyway - all the best with your investment ... and who knows, if it is appropriately priced I might join in ;)

[arc]

Just remind me:

Where have we heard before that the ASX entry will change everything? Right: TIL, PPH, ....
Why do you expect earnings to be above expectations?

Anyway - all the best with your investment ... and who knows, if it is appropriately priced I might join in ;)


I Agree: Running the models and overlaying with extrapolations for international conditions, I see more slippery slopes to come...

The "Trump" factor will also come into play (neither of the candidates is "trade-friendly", one is openly hostile towards the concept). and they are in-house for 4 years... but that's just one factor in the game

caution, observation and patience...

[iluab]

Just remind me:

Where have we heard before that the ASX entry will change everything? Right: TIL, PPH, ....
Why do you expect earnings to be above expectations?

Anyway - all the best with your investment ... and who knows, if it is appropriately priced I might join in ;)

Good luck to you if you wish to compare candles and doggy tech stocks with well established going concerns like Synlait. But, to answer your question the closest recent analogy was the MHJ compliance listing.

Just like SML, a long awaited established business coming to the ASX which has a long history of valuing such stocks more fairly than the NZX. MHJ was up 80% a few months after the listing on very little fundamental change, granted well into over valued territory by then, but great for those investors who had the foresight.

Clearly you are determined to run Synlait down, keep trying, and I'll keep debunking.

[iluab]

Synlait are due within the next few days to issue a listing prospectus to the ASX which should include revenue guidance, and I just wonder if we will see it exceed present analyst expectations at $663m due to;

1. ATM's presentation yesterday, given that previous guidance from Synlait was for only 12.5% infant formula production growth: ATM reported on track Q1 revenues and stated "continued and consistent growth" in consumer demand for its A2 Platinum infant formula, despite research reports suggesting demand would be volatile.

2. The recent uptick in WMP prices per plot below, Synlait will need to treat that uptick conservatively, but even so an uptrend is an uptrend and must be taken into account one would expect..

8440

[iluab]

Yet another tick up in whole milk prices, can only be a good thing ahead of an SML guidance release, the agm is on the 29th I think, can anyone confirm ?

8451

[Hectorplains]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/86537607/playing-chinas-infant-formula-game

Interesting analysis of where a few challenges might lie ahead for SML, the possibility of a 'one line' requirement from China is not one I'd heard much about previously.

[iluab]

Less than two weeks to the agm !

I’m just getting that niggly investors gut feel, you know, that Synlait are going to increase the infant formula growth guidance back upward big time at this agm and knock some socks off,

ATM are reporting no sales impact of the Chinese regulations at the border, their quarterly revenues are up, and they may actually see no disruption at all assuming they ultimately receive CFDA approval.

The a2 milk company had this to say last week;

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/247651.pdf

“Revenue for first 3 months consistent with Company expectations at NZ$112.5 million, reflecting continued growth in infant formula and milk products”

“Continued and consistent growth in consumer demand for a2 Platinum® infant formula, in contrast to expectations of volatility in certain research reports”

[iluab]

ATM outperforming market expectations on NPAT due to infant formula sales for the first four months of FY17.

That can only bode well for SML, and I reckon will put some upward pressure on SML guidance due next week !!!

[BlackPeter]

Hmm ... one of the more optimistic "Death-Crosses" I remember. Still - from a technical perspective this still could go further downwards (wouldn't it be nice ... my order is not yet completely filled :sleep:).

8487

charts courtesy to yahoo ...

[iluab]

Hmm ... one of the more optimistic "Death-Crosses" I remember. Still - from a technical perspective this still could go further downwards (wouldn't it be nice ... my order is not yet completely filled :sleep:)..

Seriously, you shouldn't consider even trying to use technical's when there are overriding fundamental matters in play, esp a CR and associated dilution which your chart can't reflect unless you first adjust the core chart data.

Analyst consensus targets are for around NZ$3.74, I would not be surprised to see those increased after Tuesday given the fundamental outlook, and equally I wouldn't be surprised to see ASX insto's take us there over the coming weeks.

The agm is Tuesday, the outlook delivered for SML:NZX or SM1:ASX now will be really very interesting I reckon.

[iluab]

Nice, we're in capable hands, big things ahead for Synlait I reckon,

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/249418.pdf

[Snow Leopard]

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/Global%20Change/sleeping-s.jpg

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[BlackPeter]

HY results are out: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/255622.pdf

Costs up, margins down and the much hyped up lactoferrin just managed to break even for the HY after writing losses in the last half.

Debts now at a somewhat more reasonable level ... that's what capital rises tend to do ...

On the other hand - they actually did set a base for growth - and the outlook looks overall positive.

A more open China market and ATM's success should help.

Still would think that markets feel somewhat disappointed ... might bring opportunities to buy later in the week (or next week / next month) at a more reasonable price into this company.

[tzbang]

After the hyped article in the NBR yesterday predicting a robust profit improvement off the back of A2 and a full year guidance upgrade - this is kinda disappointing.

[Leftfield]

HY results are out: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/255622.pdf

Costs up, margins down and the much hyped up lactoferrin just managed to break even for the HY after writing losses in the last half.

Debts now at a somewhat more reasonable level ... that's what capital rises tend to do ...

On the other hand - they actually did set a base for growth - and the outlook looks overall positive.

A more open China market and ATM's success should help.

Still would think that markets feel somewhat disappointed ... might bring opportunities to buy later in the week (or next week / next month) at a more reasonable price into this company.

Mkt not impressed today either..... sold my holding at 2.44 for a small gain in the lead-up earlier this week. However, the doubling of infant formula capacity has got to be good for ATM (which I still hold.)

[tzbang]

Looks like the market liked the leadership team update as they prepare for 'rapid growth'
big jump today from $3.48 to $3.80

[Nasi Goreng]

SML to have a $5 handle in the next 12 months? $10 share in 5 years?

[tzbang]

Very possible. Within a whisker of $4 now

[Sideshow Bob]

Couple of positive announcements

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SML/announcements/301861
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SML/announcements/301863

[BlackPeter]

Couple of positive announcements

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SML/announcements/301861
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SML/announcements/301863

Well, yes - though milk price has no direct impact on SML's profitability - it is obviously desirable if enough money goes to the farmers to keep them in line and happy.

Second site in Mangere: Obviously we first need to see the financials, but I guess it is good they go for a second site and (from a local perspective) it is good this site is in NZ - they talked at some stage as well about an Ossie alternative.

Discl: holding (a XS sized parcel)

[IAK]

This will give the farmer's something to grumble about ...."Synlait Milk has lowered its forecast price for the 2016-17 season to $6.15 per kilogram of milksolids because of what it calls a "significant" drop in the dairy market."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/93832064/synlait-lowers-seasons-payout-to-farmers-in-response-to-market-prices

[Lola]

This will give the farmer's something to grumble about ...."Synlait Milk has lowered its forecast price for the 2016-17 season to $6.15 per kilogram of milksolids because of what it calls a "significant" drop in the dairy market."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/93832064/synlait-lowers-seasons-payout-to-farmers-in-response-to-market-prices

So what?
Synlait is a tolling operation
More volume more profit
Nothing to do with milk price to producers
A2 felt compelled to buy that 5 % tells it all
SML best growth stock on the board

Disc
Holder

[Absolute144]

I have a funny feeling we are gonna smoke through that $4.60 lot

[Absolute144]

The order must a got pulled while I was writing the previous msg

[Leftfield]

So what?
Synlait is a tolling operation
More volume more profit
Nothing to do with milk price to producers
A2 felt compelled to buy that 5 % tells it all
SML best growth stock on the board

Disc
Holder

Mmmmm not quite the "best growth stock on the board." The attached screen pic compares ATM to SML. Guess which is the lower (red) line?

9055

[Nasi Goreng]

You can't argue with that chart lol. But things are certainly going well for SML. It must be one of the top 5 growth stocks on NZX and certainly one of the least talked about on here. I see it being $10 in 4 years and maybe a dividend payer by then unless they keep growing in which case, all good.

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/regulators/NZXO/announcements/306610

Well rewarded with an entry into NZX 50 and Midcap Index for this quiet and unassuming performer, well done Synlait.

No wonder market likes the announcement...

[Yoda]

No comments here,surprising after a good anointment and good SP rise . There have been some mentions on ATM posts..... Is the SP getting ahead of itself? Whats your take on the EPS now ? It has had a good year, and now 40% ish higher that its jan 2014 peak. $6 by christmas ?

[ratkin]

No comments here,surprising after a good anointment and good SP rise . There have been some mentions on ATM posts..... Is the SP getting ahead of itself? Whats your take on the EPS now ? It has had a good year, and now 40% ish higher that its jan 2014 peak. $6 by christmas ?

Another too boring to talk about stock. They are doing a fine job, and are not edgy enough to attract much attention on the boards. Accumulated plenty of these back when job ads started to appear on trade me for nightshift workers at their plant.

[Yoda]

That was crafty and very good spotting

[ratkin]

That was crafty and very good spotting

It was a big deal around Ashburton/Chch at the time, they were looking for a ton of workers and team leaders as
were setting up extra shifts, they were desperate for staff as had to make huge ramp up, It was clear they were
going gangbusters down there.

[BlackPeter]

Good company, but looks like the SP got ahead of its value. Today so far 30 cents down. Who wants to catch the falling knife?

[Absolute144]

Synlait delivering on growth strategy and reports $38.2m

8:30am, 19 Sep 2017


Synlait (NZX: SML; ASX: SM1) has reported their strongest performance yet with a net profit after tax of $38.2 million, double digit growth in profit margins and revenue increasing 39% to $759 million.


“Our shareholders supported this growth focus in September 2016 when we successfully raised $97.6 million to invest in our business,” said Graeme Milne, Chairman.


Mr Milne said Synlait’s current balance sheet is in a very good position with net debt down from $214 million to $83 million, and along with retained earnings, the company is in a good position to fund its growth strategy.


My Question is....
Revenue 759 mill
Debt 83 mill - what did they pay the 131 million of debt off with (the capital raise of 97 million + earnings or did they pay it off with more earnings and invest the majority of the 97 million in another drying tower???)

[Nasi Goreng]

Synlait delivering on growth strategy and reports $38.2m

8:30am, 19 Sep 2017


Synlait (NZX: SML; ASX: SM1) has reported their strongest performance yet with a net profit after tax of $38.2 million, double digit growth in profit margins and revenue increasing 39% to $759 million.


“Our shareholders supported this growth focus in September 2016 when we successfully raised $97.6 million to invest in our business,” said Graeme Milne, Chairman.


Mr Milne said Synlait’s current balance sheet is in a very good position with net debt down from $214 million to $83 million, and along with retained earnings, the company is in a good position to fund its growth strategy



My Question is....
Revenue 759 mill
Debt 83 mill - what did they pay the 131 million of debt off with (the capital raise of 97 million + earnings or did they pay it off with more earnings and invest the majority of the 97 million in another drying tower???)

They increased their cashflow in the year so that was used to pay off debt. The capital raise money has not yet been spent so therefore it reduces debt for now, and debt will increase again when they do spend it.

[BlackPeter]

Not sure what the point is to discuss what money they used for repaying debts and what money for new acquisitions?

Sounds as sensible as discussing which of the $20 notes in your wallet you used to pay the butcher and which to pay the baker ...

Fact is that their debt did reduce drastically (which is good) and they still did spend money for new acquisitions. I suppose this new factory in Auckland was not for free?

Well done Synlait - even if I feel that the SP is currently a bit frothy ... but you can't blame Synlait for that ...

[Absolute144]

I also run a business. A good money manager knows where his/her money is going....

[BlackPeter]

I also run a business. A good money manager knows where his/her money is going....

That's not the point. Just read SML's report and you know that they know where their money is going.

The question was "Revenue 759 mill
Debt 83 mill - what did they pay the 131 million of debt off with (the capital raise of 97 million + earnings or did they pay it off with more earnings and invest the majority of the 97 million in another drying tower???)"

My point is that it is completely immaterial whether they used the money from the CR for repaying debts or a new acquisition. They did both. How would anybody distinguish which money they used for which purpose - and why would this be relevant?

[Hectorplains]

That's not the point. Just read SML's report and you know that they know where their money is going.

The question was "Revenue 759 mill
Debt 83 mill - what did they pay the 131 million of debt off with (the capital raise of 97 million + earnings or did they pay it off with more earnings and invest the majority of the 97 million in another drying tower???)"

My point is that it is completely immaterial whether they used the money from the CR for repaying debts or a new acquisition. They did both. How would anybody distinguish which money they used for which purpose - and why would this be relevant?


This is a peculiar discussion.

Up 43c today, nudging closer to $7...white oil rush!

[hardt]

After being an idiot and cutting my holding in half at $6... I topped up again this morning.

Forward PE of 20* seems more than reasonable given the industry and how it is expected to move over the next 5-10 years.

[hardt]

I am continuing to buy while it remains under $8

[ratkin]

Should do well from a declining dollar. Not sure I would be a buyer at these prices, but a very happy long term holder.

[hardt]

Should do well from a declining dollar. Not sure I would be a buyer at these prices, but a very happy long term holder.

Question: what do you value Synlait at currently?

Correct me if I am wrong, but If you wouldn't buy at these prices, you must then feel like it is fairly/overvalued and will not outperform the market moving forward.

[BlackPeter]

Question: what do you value Synlait at currently?

Correct me if I am wrong, but If you wouldn't buy at these prices, you must then feel like it is fairly/overvalued and will not outperform the market moving forward.

For what it is worth: NTA $2.16; Analyst consensus $5.80; Value based on Graham's formula: $12.58; value based on 10 forward PE: $3.50; SP $7,96;

I guess this indicates that the analysts don't believe that they can stick with their roughly 15% CAGR - or that they factor in a risk premium. I guess the A2 story could either end at some stage, or alternatively it could take over the world. Interestingly - both options would be bad for SML. Option 1 would mean nobody wants their top line product anymore and option 2 would mean that there are lots of competitors selling the same stuff.

Very difficult to define a fair price for such a company without having a flawless crystal ball. Personally I think they are at the moment a bit too hyped up considering the potential risks, but then - if everything goes to plan they are still undervalued.

Discl: still hold some, but sold most of them. Might have been the wrong decision - or maybe not.

[tipsy]

A nice 3.5% gain today :)

[King1212]

Ehmmm...anyone top up at this level...AGM in 4 weeks..just missed out $7.75

[King1212]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20171027/pdf/43nn38tm46qrgx.pdf

[King1212]

A2 milk powder selling like a hot cake...go SML!!!

https://www.3aw.com.au/the-audit-on-baby-formula-in-melbournes-supermarkets-is-there-a-shortage/

[ratkin]

All good news, and forward statements very encouraging, like the bit about growing at pace. Population growth in
markets should keep tailwinds moving in the right direction.

[minimoke]

Time for a bump. I'm late joining this particular party but bought in today. Looking forward to positive attention going off ATM and back onto SML later in the week / next weeks as AGM nears.

Edit. And while I have your attention, whats with all these volume parcels of 1 - 10 shares going through at 12:49 12:50. Rats and mice 5 - 10 below other trades?

[Beagle]

Probably bot trading minimoke. I have been buying too. Took a punt and bought up a few last week at just under $7 and a few more this week prior to the ATM annual meeting.

[RupertBear]

Probably bot trading minimoke. I have been buying too. Took a punt and bought up a few last week at just under $7 and a few more this week prior to the ATM annual meeting.

You're a cunning hound :D

[Jay]

I have had something similar buying a share on the ASX, parcel of 17, 4, 23 then a couple of larger parcels to make up my order, all at the same price as well. Can't be a private seller selling with 4 or 17 etc.

[minimoke]

I have had something similar buying a share on the ASX, parcel of 17, 4, 23 then a couple of larger parcels to make up my order, all at the same price as well. Can't be a private seller selling with 4 or 17 etc.
Happening with FRE as well. Nuisance as it shifts all the trades quickly down the list and you cant see what has happened

[Absolute144]

Hey minimoke. What do you mean it shifts them down the list. Where are you getting info on the trading parcels for the day?

[minimoke]

9288
Hey minimoke. What do you mean it shifts them down the list. Where are you getting info on the trading parcels for the day?
On my ANZ Securites account / web site you go to the security eg SML. Then go to Depth.
Each time one of those epesky nuisances joins the list at the top a trade falls off the bottom

[sb9]

Probably bot trading minimoke. I have been buying too. Took a punt and bought up a few last week at just under $7 and a few more this week prior to the ATM annual meeting.

Good move, should move to $8+ range very soon.
Strong finish on ASX y'day at 6.85 which equates to NZ 7.58.

[minimoke]

No excitement in price ahead of tomorrows meeting

[moka]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/311126
(https://www.nzx.com/announcements/311126)
"Synlait Milk (NZX: SML; ASX: SM1) today announced that long-time Chief Executive Officer and founder John Penno intends to step down from his position in the next 12 months, as part of an orderly transition to position Synlait for its next phase of growth.
After 17 years of living and breathing this company, it is time to move on, but I share the Board’s intention for me to continue as a Director of Synlait Milk,” said Mr Penno."

[sb9]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/311126
(https://www.nzx.com/announcements/311126)
"Synlait Milk (NZX: SML; ASX: SM1) today announced that long-time Chief Executive Officer and founder John Penno intends to step down from his position in the next 12 months, as part of an orderly transition to position Synlait for its next phase of growth.
After 17 years of living and breathing this company, it is time to move on, but I share the Board’s intention for me to continue as a Director of Synlait Milk,” said Mr Penno."

All good, nice transition move to the next leader and Mr Penno will continue on the board.

Onwards and upwards....

[smalltrader]

30-35kMT forcast for 2018.Onwards and upwards

[JeremyALD]

Wheres the release of the ASM and how to you dial in? Very annoying

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SML/311143/270779.pdf

GROWTH.

[Nasi Goreng]

Nasi is excited about all this growth :t_up:

[RupertBear]

Nasi is excited about all this growth :t_up:

Wish the SP was as excited! ;)

[RTM]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SML/311143/270779.pdf

GROWTH.
Thanks for the PDF. I wonder why they set up in Auckland ? It’s a pity really, regions need companies like this, Auckland needs more like a hole in the head. Can’t imagine facilty costs are cheaper there? Possible reasons...
Access to staff, particularly technical folk ?
Close to Airport for airfreight ?
Close to Auckland Port - sea freight.?
Handy for overseas customers who might need to audit ?
A little strange I thought.

[minimoke]

Thanks for the PDF. I wonder why they set up in Auckland ? It’s a pity really, regions need companies like this, Auckland needs more like a hole in the head. Can’t imagine facilty costs are cheaper there? Possible reasons...
Access to staff, particularly technical folk ?
Close to Airport for airfreight ?
Close to Auckland Port - sea freight.?
Handy for overseas customers who might need to audit ?
A little strange I thought.
NZ Dairy Farms were already building a plant in Mangere. Allows SML to reduce risk from a 1 site operation.

[RTM]

NZ Dairy Farms were already building a plant in Mangere. Allows SML to reduce risk from a 1 site operation.
Oh...so they inherited the site. Ok, understood, thanks. Yes, agree with risk reduction by having more than one site. Just would have been nice not to have been in Auckland. IMO.

[mondograss]

It is also on the airport campus just FYI.

[misterx]

Good growth. What's with the share price reaction?

[sb9]

Good growth. What's with the share price reaction?

Even I'm bit perplexed and scratching my head re the price reaction post ASM presentation. Thought it might recover after the initial negative reaction to CEO's departure.

[minimoke]

Good growth. What's with the share price reaction?
Its those silly buggery 50 shares here, 72 shares there which isn't helping

[couta1]

Even I'm bit perplexed and scratching my head re the price reaction post ASM presentation. Thought it might recover after the initial negative reaction to CEO's departure. Remember the days when the ATM SP used to tank after every good set of results, just remind yourself that a SP more than often has nothing to do with a companies performance, it's decided by a bunch of schizophrenics.

[sb9]

Remember the days when the ATM SP used to tank after every good set of results, just remind yourself that a SP more than often has nothing to do with a companies performance, it's decided by a bunch of schizophrenics.

Lol, love that word....

[hardt]

Very solid meeting today.

They upgraded IF production FY18F guidance to their top end of 35mt.
Infant formula is a higher margin product and will expand group margins as it continues growing as a proportion of total revenue.

Very simplistic view and a $10 PT on SML IMO. Bought more this morning




FY17A

% GROWTH







GROSS MARGIN PER MT
781.00



MT PRODUCED
141364



GROSS PROFIT - NZDm
110.41








FY18F









GROSS MARGIN PER MT
825.00
5.63%


MT PRODUCED
169637
20.00%


GROSS PROFIT - NZDm
139.95
26.75%

[Beagle]

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4602911

I'm quite encouraged about their long term growth plans, especially the substantial increase in R&D in tandem with Massey University.
Rome wasn't built in a day and just like the Mainland Cheese advertisement "good things take time" this has all the foundational elements of a company that appears to have every chance to grow very strongly over the years ahead. Disc: Holding for the long term and looking to add on weakness. It was interesting to note in the recent John Ryder newsletter that this company got a very good recommendation.

[BlackPeter]

Been there yesterday and (no surprises) quite positive mood. Most of the info is in the presentation anyway, so here just some of the points and highlights I took note of:

Great to see the huge reduction in liabilities - their debts used to be at the upper end of my comfort level, but now the books look really healthy.

They noted that last year's forecasts have been quite modest (btw - they over-delivered) and that they expect for this year much better growth in profitability (hint ...?).

Just doubled their spray drying capacity ... this should allow them to keep growth for another couple of years going

They plan to buy land in the NI to extend the capabilities of their new Auckland factory (and add another supply pool in the North)

Nearly 200 farms currently under contract - roughly 1/3rd (60) of them supplying A2 - milk; Don't know, though, how the volumes compare.

Lactoferrin prices currently going through the roof - which is good for the bottom line. Lactoferrin production has high fixed cost, but very small volume dependant cost. Nigel (the CFO) was smiling when he talked about this subject ...).

I sensed no concerns about John's plans to retire as CEO (but stay as director) - well signalled move and lots of time and flexibility to find the best candidate and allow for a good transition.

Responding to a question: Yes, ATM is their most important customer, but they think the company would be sustainable in the unlikely (and undesired) event of something happening to ATM (or the A2 Milk market). Base of this question was just to assess the risk correlation for investors who have both ATM and SML in their portfolio.

Only thing I personally was a bit surprised about is that they (despite being asked) couldn't or didn't wanted to give us a skill profile of the new CEO they are looking for. Answer was something like "experienced" and "they will go through a thorough process". Either they didn't had yet the time to discuss this as board (I don't know, when they learned about John's plans) - or there is some other reason I don't understand for them to be cagey.

As usual - good atmosphere (you would expect that after a shareholder return of more than 100% last year) and the votes came back with record support of the board (including the increase of the directors fees).

The modest catering (cracker and cheese, sandwiches) did stay in the framework of past years - but hey, we didn't come to indulge - didn't we?

Discl: hold (both SML and ATM)

[BlackPeter]

Ah yes - and here was another bit: They do have a "waiting list" of farmers who would like to supply them. More farmers who would like to sign up than they currently need.

[sb9]

Thanks BP for first hand information from ASM, very pleasing and could see this hit double digit mark in the not too distant future (along with ATM of course :)).

[Beagle]

Yeap good report BP, thanks. Also holding ATM and SML.

[JeremyALD]

Hmmm not looking to good at the moment. Not sure whether to hold it out or sell and buy back in the low 6s

[minimoke]

They better pull their socks up. I'm taking a bath with SML and ATM

[Beagle]

For what its worth here is my approach. Its well known that some people treat the NZX like an ATM (automatic teller machine) in the lead up to Christmas and probably only a natural part of life that some people take some of their superb profits they've made on ATM and SML in the first half of December. My approach is to ride this through and look for an opportunity to top up in mid December once people have made their ATM withdrawals for their Christmas and holiday spending.

[RupertBear]

They better pull their socks up. I'm taking a bath with SML and ATM

Yep I am well under water with this one :( gulp

[minimoke]

Yep I am well under water with this one :( gulp
I'm taking a long term view with these 2. But if the stop loss is triggered it will be a "SELL".

[sb9]

For what its worth here is my approach. Its well known that some people treat the NZX like an ATM (automatic teller machine) in the lead up to Christmas and probably only a natural part of life that some people take some of their superb profits they've made on ATM and SML in the first half of December. My approach is to ride this through and look for an opportunity to top up in mid December once people have made their ATM withdrawals for their Christmas and holiday spending.

Couldn't agree more.

Also, the fact that SML is tightly held stock meaning price movements can be rather large in both directions. What we've gotta remember is that the fundamentals and numbers haven't changed from what they were a month ago or from that of ASM date. Just need to ride out the downward wave and once it starts to move up it'll be quick and rapid.

[ratkin]

Couldn't agree more.

Also, the fact that SML is tightly held stock meaning price movements can be rather large in both directions. What we've gotta remember is that the fundamentals and numbers haven't changed from what they were a month ago or from that of ASM date. Just need to ride out the downward wave and once it starts to move up it'll be quick and rapid.

The movement up has already been quick and rapid. It has doubled in the last year. We are probably in for a relatively long consolidation period. The fundamentals are decent, but that is probably now well priced in. Am looking for some weakness to top up, but dont feel there is any rush

[BlackPeter]

The movement up has already been quick and rapid. It has doubled in the last year. We are probably in for a relatively long consolidation period. The fundamentals are decent, but that is probably now well priced in. Am looking for some weakness to top up, but dont feel there is any rush

Plateauing? - maybe ... but a bit too early to call. SML is still well above the MA100 and ATM even still around the MA30 - both look so far like uninterrupted uptrends to me.

But sure - it would be unreasonable to expect them to keep rising with unchanged velocity. Looking into their fundamentals would I however think that both are still exceptional value ...

Discl: hold both (medium sized parcels) and might top up when the current "consolidation period" ends;

[Beagle]

Plateauing? - maybe ... but a bit too early to call. SML is still well above the MA100 and ATM even still around the MA30 - both look so far like uninterrupted uptrends to me.

But sure - it would be unreasonable to expect them to keep rising with unchanged velocity. Looking into their fundamentals would I however think that both are still exceptional value ...

Discl: hold both (medium sized parcels) and might top up when the current "consolidation period" ends;

You're as cunning as a hungry beagle, holding same and thinking the same about topping up.

[minimoke]

More good news today - shoudl give things a kick along


Synlait Milk (NZX: SML; ASX: SM1) has today officially opened its new Wetmix


kitchen, which will enable it to simultaneously run both large-scale infant


formula spray dryers.





This will double the amount of infant formula powder which can be produced at


the Dunsandel site, from 40,000 metric tonnes (MT) to 80,000 MT per year.

[BlackPeter]

More good news today - shoudl give things a kick along


Synlait Milk (NZX: SML; ASX: SM1) has today officially opened its new Wetmix


kitchen, which will enable it to simultaneously run both large-scale infant


formula spray dryers.





This will double the amount of infant formula powder which can be produced at


the Dunsandel site, from 40,000 metric tonnes (MT) to 80,000 MT per year.



Not sure this is really "news". They mentioned that already at their AGM (a week ago) with reference to the past, but still - it might not be news, but it is still great!

[ratkin]

Not sure this is really "news". They mentioned that already at their AGM (a week ago) with reference to the past, but still - it might not be news, but it is still great!

Weetmix kids are chinese kids

[minimoke]

Not sure this is really "news". They mentioned that already at their AGM (a week ago) with reference to the past, but still - it might not be news, but it is still great!
Not new news, but still worth an announcement on NZX today to spark some interest. I hoping it will stop freefall.

[hardt]

Not new news, but still worth an announcement on NZX today to spark some interest. I hoping it will stop freefall.

Keep the free fall going I say, have orders all through 600-640 that I am still hopefull will land...

[777]

Doesn't look like it.


Security code or Company name:

View:
SML.NZX - Synlait Milk Limited (NS) Ordinary Shares
Last VWAP Buy Sell High Low First Volume Value
687 ¢
(NZD)

07/12 16:59 NZT
NS
687 689

[Buy] [Sell] [Add to Watch] [Add to Portfolio]

Bids
Quantity No. Price
1,279 1 687
2,000 1 680
2,000 1 678
54 1 677
590 1 676
7,000 3 675
1,000 1 674
1,187 1 671
1,540 1 650
400 1 648
1,650 4 600
1,000 1 480
Asks
Price No. Quantity
689 2 4,287
696 1 5,045
700 3 3,460
710 1 945
740 2 5,484
772 2 4,933
775 3 5,700
778 1 1,400
779 1 1,250
780 3 7,186
784 2 16,866
790 1 1,050
795 4 16,925
800 5 10,755
812 2 5,444

[hardt]

Doesn't look like it.


Security code or Company name:

View:
SML.NZX - Synlait Milk Limited (NS) Ordinary Shares
Last VWAP Buy Sell High Low First Volume Value
687 ¢
(NZD)

07/12 16:59 NZT
NS
687 689

[Buy] [Sell] [Add to Watch] [Add to Portfolio]

Bids
Quantity No. Price
1,279 1 687
2,000 1 680
2,000 1 678
54 1 677
590 1 676
7,000 3 675
1,000 1 674
1,187 1 671
1,540 1 650
400 1 648
1,650 4 600
1,000 1 480
Asks
Price No. Quantity
689 2 4,287
696 1 5,045
700 3 3,460
710 1 945
740 2 5,484
772 2 4,933
775 3 5,700
778 1 1,400
779 1 1,250
780 3 7,186
784 2 16,866
790 1 1,050
795 4 16,925
800 5 10,755
812 2 5,444

***trigger***

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SML/311593/271404.pdf

[hardt]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SML/311593/271404.pdf

Looks good ehh

[BlackPeter]

Looks good ehh

Particularly this green bar on page 13. That's growth!

[Beagle]

Looks good ehh

Sure does. As you know in separate major projects just completed they have doubled their dryer capacity and canning capacity in the last month. FY19 will see a full financial year's impact of that very strong capacity growth. Plenty more growth to come after that too. Great long term hold.

[King1212]

Went to baby factory today with wife. Surprised to see they are selling Munchkin grass feed...at $30 each can. Talked to the cs lady, she said the if formula is selling well. A lot of mums like it. So...double capacity production with possible double revenue ....would we see the sp more than $10 early next year?

[Hectorplains]

Went to baby factory today with wife. Surprised to see they are selling Munchkin grass feed...at $30 each can. Talked to the cs lady, she said the if formula is selling well. A lot of mums like it. So...double capacity production with possible double revenue ....would we see the sp more than $10 early next year?

A2M is not their only avenue into China either. Two other brands are probable, more may be possible with them now on multi-production sites .

I bought in at IPO. Wish I hadn't flicked half them...

[minimoke]

Also worth keeping an eye on to see if they piggy back off ATM rise. Sellers seem to have dried up a bit - first sell bid 6.99

[sb9]

Also worth keeping an eye on to see if they piggy back off ATM rise. Sellers seem to have dried up a bit - first sell bid 6.99

Should pop very soon...

[minimoke]

Should pop very soon...
Cant be long. Someone popped in at 6.85, flagged it away and now sitting on 6.99

[King1212]

Bloody good announcement!

https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4621824

[minimoke]

Bloody good announcement!

https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4621824
excellent news - but where is all the milk going to come from?

Nice to see a couple of trades with a "7" at the front

[sb9]

excellent news - but where is all the milk going to come from?


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SML/312241/272130.pdf

From their presentation from above on slide 7...

* Synlait’s current milk supply adequate to meet the volumes of the contract...

[petty]

Reading the investor presentation, current supply is adequate to service these contracts. Further I attended the AGM and there is currently more farmers wanting to sign up to Synlait than they have demand. I don't see a problem here. As I see it.
What does seem interesting is that Pam's is not exactly a premium brand. In fact it sells cheaper than other brands. I would have though that with the 'lead with pride' and other programmes run, that Synlait would have wanted to target the premium end of the range.
Its is good to see Synlait with greater diversification. While I dont see huge potential (unlike IF), this move does de-risk the business.

[Hectorplains]

Bloody good announcement!

https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4621824

Absolutely! Provides diversity and piggybacks current position.

[mondograss]

Reading the investor presentation, current supply is adequate to service these contracts. Further I attended the AGM and there is currently more farmers wanting to sign up to Synlait than they have demand. I don't see a problem here. As I see it.
What does seem interesting is that Pam's is not exactly a premium brand. In fact it sells cheaper than other brands. I would have though that with the 'lead with pride' and other programmes run, that Synlait would have wanted to target the premium end of the range.
Its is good to see Synlait with greater diversification. While I dont see huge potential (unlike IF), this move does de-risk the business.

Pams does some premium-branded stuff actually, often rather surprises me how good it is. I think they're doing a bit of a repositioning.

[Nasi Goreng]

Wonder when Synlait get the contract to package A2 milk? I suspect the current issue could be that they need all of the A2 they can get for milk powders.

Also, isn’t it amazing what a small nimble company can do vs Fonterra.

[King1212]

I love pam stuffs....their products are affordable yet good quality!

[petty]

Yea its def a good product I agree. I use a lot personally but probably because its good value for money. Ie good quality for what you pay. I suppose I had thought, when Synlait signaled they were moving into B2C, that they would target the 'Kapiti' or 'Lewis Road' premium product rather than blue top milk.

[Beagle]

From the presentation - N.Z. fresh milk market ripe for innovation. This is a first step. Looks like Synlait will be mowing more and more of Fonterra's grass in the future.
Leverage off this new facility for product expansion - all debt funded. Good move, happy holder looking to accumulate on any weakness which probably won't be today lol

[steveb]

Market cap of 1.25B this would be pocket change to fonterra if they wanted to gobble them up,they would probably have to go after A2M as well

disc not holding

[Nasi Goreng]

I don’t think Fonterra could gobble them up and get past the regulators. It would reduce competition... I would like SML to stay in my hands thank you very much.

[Beagle]

I don’t think Fonterra could gobble them up and get past the regulators. It would reduce competition... I would like SML to stay in my hands thank you very much.

Agreed. Market dominance concerns would almost certainly scuttle and possible takeover attempt by Fonterra in my opinion. Happy to hold for long term growth.

[whome]

Fonterra, ruled by their dairy farmer base with their co-operative production oriented thinking, would be the kiss of death for Synlait. The path of managed growth driven by market demand and happy shareholders will see Synlait go from strength to strength and the new distribution deal will see the likes of A2 branded products become mainstream in NZ. This would never happen under Fonterra as it would upset the majority of their farmers with their Holstein-Fresian A1 dominant herds.

[hardt]

Fonterra, ruled by their dairy farmer base with their co-operative production oriented thinking, would be the kiss of death for Synlait. The path of managed growth driven by market demand and happy shareholders will see Synlait go from strength to strength and the new distribution deal will see the likes of A2 branded products become mainstream in NZ. This would never happen under Fonterra as it would upset the majority of their farmers with their Holstein-Fresian A1 dominant herds.


You are not giving Fonterra enough credit, they have done very well growing hundreds of brands around the world..

Although as opposed to ensuring strong mutually beneficial relationships Fonterra does tend to wear the big boy pants and takes over.

SML has a lot more room for error in setting up relationships and in the development of products... just saying.

[King1212]

You are not giving Fonterra enough credit, they have done very well growing hundreds of brands around the world..

Although as opposed to ensuring strong mutually beneficial relationships Fonterra does tend to wear the big boy pants and takes over.

SML has a lot more room for error in setting up relationships and in the development of products... just saying.

Fonterra can take over SML...they can buy my share...$21 a share..that would value SML $3 b ish...fonterra can afford it and I a man happy with it:t_up:

[Beagle]

Behind the paywall article on Synlait this morning on their new manufacturing plant for Foodstuffs. Gist of it is the 10 year contract gave them the confidence to build the plant and gets the return on capital working for them but Foodstuffs only taking one third of the plants capacity so they're using this new facility as the springboard to launch other products / brands.
On top of that we know they have very recently completed two extensive new facilities which resulted in a doubling of their drying and canning capabilities.
Join the dots folks...GROWTH !!
Disc: Rounded up a few more this morning.

[kiwidollabill]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SML/312241/272130.pdf

From their presentation from above on slide 7...

* Synlait’s current milk supply adequate to meet the volumes of the contract...


Probably shift production from WMP as needed.

[King1212]

Love pams butter n cream...good quality n affordable...sell well..

[Hectorplains]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11964836

A nice summary of 2017. Penno comes across as authentic and humble. He really has been an outstanding leader for SML.

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11964836

A nice summary of 2017. Penno comes across as authentic and humble. He really has been an outstanding leader for SML.

Likeable chap with great values. I added more shares last week.

[King1212]

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/cfda-china-deadline-2018.3935135/#.WkgAzNHRWhA

a bit of recent news....

[Hectorplains]

"We do not see the current share priceas reflecting the favourable margin gainthat SM1 generates as it transitionsits sales mix from dairy ingredientstowards higher margin canned infantformula (IMF) and adult nutritionproducts. Importantly we expect thistransition to accelerate in FY18." Bell Potter stock pick for 2018, page 7: https://dpsi7pmz5b6vt.cloudfront.net/uploads/ckeditor/picture/3072/Bell_Potter_Analyst_Outlook_for_2018_.pdf

[sb9]

Topped up bit more this morning....good value at this price imo.

[Beagle]

Agreed. Disc: Holding long term.

[JoeGrogan]

Topped up bit more this morning....good value at this price imo.

Good call great value. I topped up yesterday on the back of atm and bal rallying up. Third time it’s bounced off the 670ish support levels too

[Beagle]

Yes, nice bounce off 100 day MA. Seen a significant divergence in the correlation between ATM and SML in the last couple of months. SML the value pick of the two right at the minute I would think but its hard to separate them in terms of their long term prospects which are of course inextricably linked so I have a bob or three on both. Possible merger down the track ?

[BlackPeter]

Yes, nice bounce off 100 day MA. Seen a significant divergence in the correlation between ATM and SML in the last couple of months. SML the value pick of the two right at the minute I would think but its hard to separate them in terms of their long term prospects which are of course inextricably linked so I have a bob or three on both. Possible merger down the track ?

Same here (being invested in both), but not so sure about the merger idea ... SML has more than one suitor and ATM has more than one processor (though I think SML is their only baby formula processor - and this is where the $$$$'s are). I don't think they (or ATM) would gain by giving up this "diversity". Just think at SML's venture into selling fresh milk into the SI, think Lactoferrin ($$), think grass fed milk they sell through Munchkin in the US. Why should they endanger any of these other ventures?

And while they have a strong common interest (A2 baby formula) - I would prefer to see SML being able to survive without A2 (just in case sh*t happens), and I think A2 should try to be independent as well (though I am not sure, they are - SML is holding all these invaluable Chinese import licences for A2's baby formula). Maybe SML is where the real value is ...

[mfd]

Today's boost to A2 is presumably due to the expansion in America, so not relevant to synlait as far as I'm aware.

[BlackPeter]

Today's boost to A2 is presumably due to the expansion in America, so not relevant to synlait as far as I'm aware.

Depends on whether they intend to sell their baby formula in the US. In my view they would be stupid if they didn't, so, yes - I think there should be some impact on SML as well.

[Beagle]

Same here (being invested in both), but not so sure about the merger idea ... SML has more than one suitor and ATM has more than one processor (though I think SML is their only baby formula processor - and this is where the $$$$'s are). I don't think they (or ATM) would gain by giving up this "diversity". Just think at SML's venture into selling fresh milk into the SI, think Lactoferrin ($$), think grass fed milk they sell through Munchkin in the US. Why should they endanger any of these other ventures?

And while they have a strong common interest (A2 baby formula) - I would prefer to see SML being able to survive without A2 (just in case sh*t happens), and I think A2 should try to be independent as well (though I am not sure, they are - SML is holding all these invaluable Chinese import licences for A2's baby formula). Maybe SML is where the real value is ...

Good post BP. I wasn't suggesting that any possible contemplated merger would or could endanger any of Synlait's planned expansion, rather was perhaps just suggesting that there could be more synergies from a merger and expansion on multiple fronts, combination of marketing efforts ? but as you suggest they have their own unique aspirations so perhaps not an ideal fit ?

[Ggcc]

It would not surprise me if A2M won't allocate all they could to shareholders through dividend and increase their stake in Synlait down the track. I hope they will do that, as they both benefit from each other's business.

[Beagle]

Behind the paywall article on NBR saying ATM still struggling to get enough supply ? Seeing as Synlait only recently completed projects to double their canning and drying capacity one would hope this is simply a logistical issue at this stage or getting the completed product to market...or perhaps ATM's product demand is off the charts ? Thought folks ?

[Nasi Goreng]

Yes, nice bounce off 100 day MA. Seen a significant divergence in the correlation between ATM and SML in the last couple of months. SML the value pick of the two right at the minute I would think but its hard to separate them in terms of their long term prospects which are of course inextricably linked so I have a bob or three on both. Possible merger down the track ?

Well done for noticing Synlaits respect of the 100 day MA. Take a look at the 3 year chart. This was my post back in July 2016 and it still continues to respect the 100 day MA.

The 2 year SML chart is looking very good at the moment. The 1st year being a very well defined down trend with lots of lower lows each time finding resistance at the 100 day moving avg, the trend now is up and finding support at the 100 day MA. It looks like it will make new highs soon.

[minimoke]

In todays announcement looks like SML have hired a very competent person to Director of quality, regulatory and Lab serves. No glass ceilings there.

[petty]

Yea good announcement. Mention of the lack of gender diversity at the exec level was raised at the AGM. It was something the board and Exec were aware of and good to see a highly qualified individual in this role. Secondly its promising that Synlait are capable of securing high caliber staff. Watching for future CEO announcement.

[winner69]

In todays announcement looks like SML have hired a very competent person to Director of quality, regulatory and Lab serves. No glass ceilings there.

The last page of that announcement paints a pretty sad picture ...at least most of the white guys look happy

[minimoke]

The last page of that announcement paints a pretty sad picture ...at least most of the white guys look happy
Its an excellent picture - lots of (hopefully) competent people.

[Nasi Goreng]

The last page of that announcement paints a pretty sad picture ...at least most of the white guys look happy

lol, I agree

[hardt]

Am I the only one not all that shocked that Synlait, in a majority white male industry such as dairy is run by a majority of while males.

Why is it such an inherently bad thing to see a homogeneous leadership?

Only thing important in business is a diversity of ideas, personalities and expertise...

[petty]

Minimoke, any thoughts why the market hasn't 'put a blow torch to Synlait SP' the way you so eloquently described on the A2 thread. Im a bit perplexed as would have seen SYN SP respond accordingly. Thinking of accumulating more.

[minimoke]

Minimoke, any thoughts why the market hasn't 'put a blow torch to Synlait SP' the way you so eloquently described on the A2 thread. Im a bit perplexed as would have seen SYN SP respond accordingly. Thinking of accumulating more.
In the short time I have held these two shares both were even pegging and both making me a loss. (the only two shares that were). But now I'm ahead 10.5% in ATM and down 2.9% in SML. Which only leads me to conclude there are those that know more than the market has been told.

So I am now expecting a correction / profit taking in ATM which will release funds to flow into SML.

While I am quite happy to see ATM where it is at the moment I see these as long term plays so wont be looking at selling unless stop loss is hit. In the meantime I sit back and enjoy the ride.

[minimoke]

Only thing important in business is a diversity of ideas, personalities and expertise...
Thats what I reckon, but Im an old dinosaur. Apparently this modern age thinking is that if you are a minority (particularly female) you are much better suited to the promotions and top jobs.

[couta1]

This things acting like a real mutt, okay Beagle I know you reckon it's a good long term hold etc etc (Woof Woof) but I don't like watching paint dry. PS-Im sure it was exciting for early holders on it's run up last year. PPS-This ones in danger of being kicked out of my boarding kennel and replaced with some other critter.

[Beagle]

Almost everyone's grumpy today mate and licking their wounds. Focus on the long term buddy.

[RupertBear]

This things acting like a real mutt, okay Beagle I know you reckon it's a good long term hold etc etc (Woof Woof) but I don't like watching paint dry. PS-Im sure it was exciting for early holders on it's run up last year. PPS-This ones in danger of being kicked out of my boarding kennel and replaced with some other critter.

I agree Couta its been a dud for me ... in the red with this one and getting redder! :(

[hardt]

Nothing in the green on my entire watchlist of 30 stocks...

Good time to buy up guys

[minimoke]

Nothing in the green on my entire watchlist of 30 stocks...

Good time to buy up guys
Same with me. SML now running at a 7.3% loss. Only redemption is ATM remains 8.3% up.

I'm certainly ready after this "correction" for SML to show us some love.

[hardt]

Same with me. SML now running at a 7.3% loss. Only redemption is ATM remains 8.3% up.

I'm certainly ready after this "correction" for SML to show us some love.

This little "correction" is nothing but a tailwhip from the US close last week... i doubt much of the money coming off the table is moving elsewhere.
Will be back on in no time imo.

[Hectorplains]

Fundamentally nothing has changed. This is still an excellent growth story. It was trading on big multiples and had got ahead of itself.

NZ dollar dropped below 73c to USD today. It will come under a lot of pressure with rising US interest rates and greater risk aversion. Helpful to SML as an exporter.

[ratkin]

Nothing in the green on my entire watchlist of 30 stocks...

Good time to buy up guys

Hope not, would like to see more red' a decent correction on all stocks is well overdue, milk and everything else far too frothy lately.

[Beagle]

I agree Couta its been a dud for me ... in the red with this one and getting redder! :(

I reckon everyone got a pretty good skunking today. We live to fight another day...

[couta1]

I reckon everyone got a pretty good skunking today. We live to fight another day... Unfortunately we all get to wear a straight jacket tomorrow while our market is closed due to a public holiday that most kiwis don't give a toss about. For the self employed like myself, a random Tuesday holiday is just a pain in the rear end, made worse by no market access at a time when you most want it. PS-US markets will probably be on the rise by the time we can do anything.

[Beagle]

Unfortunately we all get to wear a straight jacket tomorrow while our market is closed due to a public holiday that most kiwis don't give a toss about. For the self employed like myself, a random Tuesday holiday is just a pain in the rear end, made worse by no market access at a time when you most want it. PS-US markets will probably be on the rise by the time we can do anything.

I couldn't agree more !

[BlackPeter]

Unfortunately we all get to wear a straight jacket tomorrow while our market is closed due to a public holiday that most kiwis don't give a toss about. For the self employed like myself, a random Tuesday holiday is just a pain in the rear end, made worse by no market access at a time when you most want it. PS-US markets will probably be on the rise by the time we can do anything.

I see what you mean ... but you can at least buy some ASX shares if US goes up overnight. More difficult will be selling NZX stock.

[Beagle]

Could turn out to be a blessing the N.Z. market closed today, (after that big fall in the U.S. market) if the overseas markets catch a bounce overnight tonight.

[Joshuatree]

A big if Roger. Its a global stock sell off. Asia looks to be off 8% today atp.USA Futures are negative. No safe haven by the looks and 50% plus of NZX owned by overseas money.

[couta1]

Could turn out to be a blessing the N.Z. market closed today, (after that big fall in the U.S. market) if the overseas markets catch a bounce overnight tonight. I hope not, I reckon it will still be red tonight but only slightly, A2 hit around $8.37 NZ equivalent earlier(Below my target top up price) very frustrating if you want to buy, with the NZX closed.

[BlackPeter]

I hope not, I reckon it will still be red tonight but only slightly, A2 hit around $8.37 NZ equivalent earlier(Below my target top up price) very frustrating if you want to buy, with the NZX closed.

Just buy A2M on the ASX. Went down to $7.70, but currently again slightly up ($7.76, equivalent to $8.39 NZ).

[Beagle]

I hope not, I reckon it will still be red tonight but only slightly, A2 hit around $8.37 NZ equivalent earlier(Below my target top up price) very frustrating if you want to buy, with the NZX closed.

I think you already have enough of them mate.

[couta1]

Just buy A2M on the ASX. Went down to $7.70, but currently again slightly up ($7.76, equivalent to $8.39 NZ). Not possible with all my money sitting with ANZ Securities, no one to execute your order anyways.

[BlackPeter]

Not possible with all my money sitting with ANZ Securities, no one to execute your order anyways.

Are you sure? I always thought that their Australian trades are dealt with directly in Australia (which would make sense for an Australian bank) - but not certain.

[Joshuatree]

i did trades on the ASB platform today on aus stock, its automated.

[minimoke]

SML to announce interim results on 21 March. It was 29 March last year. I see this as a positive sign.

[couta1]

SML to announce interim results on 21 March. It was 29 March last year. I see this as a positive sign. We need something positive to get rid of a few fleas off this one.

[Nasi Goreng]

No fleas here if you are playing the long game with a long time horizon, they are doing fantastic.