Avanco Resources Ltd ("AVB")- very high grade cu

[slimwin]

I'd be happy with half that. Who knows what the price of copper will be then and if there is a stage 3. Have to admit I used the buy in of the big boys for my due diligence. An average of 8c for me. Time will tell in the commodity lottery...

[psychic]

Surprised this hasn't gone ape. Back to 10.5 , didn't break the resistance 11.5.
Whaddyer reckon?

[slimwin]

I reckon I couldn't resist buying more at .11c today.

General feeling on HC is that these announcements have been factored into the price already. Maybe not the confirmation of bank finance though which should come soon. This now will be a producer and has surprised on the upside with JORC reserves. Mid 15 to start mining if they can be believed. Mine design, plant equip purchase well advanced. Approvals in place.

I think it's just caution in mining stocks in general. Another year will be a different story when they are a producer .After they "discover" the next stages,watch out.

[silverblizzard888]

Its a hidden star with great potential, but for the market its still a little nervous about this company. For many people who have held for a while, they know the potential and how management have proven they can deliver, but the market is a little nervous around when they will start producing (I know a timeline has been set, but perception there will be delays). Just remember that this is a company with a Mcap of over 160 million with no revenue being produced from these projects. Now fast forward a year and the company starts producing, you still have to wait another year 6 months at least until revenues are reported and profits are made, which will then be used to pay off debt. For any share investor this is a matter of what return do I get? Answer is you get value, but not likely dividend for at least another 2 years, so many are cautious whether they are prepared to wait for the long term and want more confirmation that this is a sure thing. The current share investing climate flavours dividend and sadly not as much for companies focused on growth that is making losses.

I've been holding shares since they were 6 cents (have averaged up since) and believe me when I say watching the share price will be like watching paint dry, it will slowly go up over time, but don't expect any rocket prices until production has at least started. My realistic view on this company anyway, but I'd be gladly proven wrong with a nice jump in the SP! ;) There is value constantly being built in and sooner or later that value will be reflected, for long term holders you are in for a treat when the SP does jump, but patience is the key. Some might see this as a good time to buy more shares. My opinion is finance has been built into the price, I think everyone here knows its pretty much a guarantee to be financed now and so does the market. As always advised DYOR.

[slimwin]

Having said that, 30% return in the last few months is nothing to be sneezed at...

[psychic]

Great responses, cheers.

[Xerof]

It's a long term hold for the big returns, but holds plenty of interest to short term traders as well.

you will note the promotion of Colin Jones to chair, with ex-chair and founder Woods (the Handley of AVB:sleep:) being shunted to near the bottom of the director directory. If he were to be voted off the board at the AGM in mid October, I think a lot of old investors would gladly return to the fold. Ahem, say no more..... His Advisory company Garrison Capital has been ditched, and AVB staffers in Perth have moved to their own offices.

this is going to be #2 copper producer in Carajas, Para, (the best copper address bar none) behind Vale. They are already #2 licenseholder behind Vale, and in tandem with building stage 1 mine, stage 2 (4 x the size of 1) will have a decision to mine made mid 15. Exploration for a stage 3 and more begins in weeks

this will become a mid-tier copper(with gold) producer in short order

and ignore the closing price each day, it's brazenly manipulated. The wvap is a better guide to real activity

[robbo24]

Is AVB starting to drop off from one of those "double top" things where the shareprice goes down????

:D:D:D If only Moosie_900 was here to see this :D:D:D6274

[robbo24]

Is AVB starting to drop off from one of those "double top" things where the shareprice goes down????

:D:D:D If only Moosie_900 was here to see this :D:D:D

Man, that 10.5 cent support is looking thin.... Buy in at 9 cents anyone? :D:D:D:D

If only Moosie_900 could read this :D:D:D:D

[Xerof]

More progress today... As alluded to recently, Woods did the right thing and resigned today. My guess is Glencore will now take up their option to have a Director on board for the next phase towards production.

Great buying at around 10. In the queue for more myself at 10. Finance announcement within a few weeks, then we build a mine.

Not sure what you are on about robbo, I presume it's a private joke or dig about moosie's charting skills.

[robbo24]

More progress today... As alluded to recently, Woods did the right thing and resigned today. My guess is Glencore will now take up their option to have a Director on board for the next phase towards production.

Great buying at around 10. In the queue for more myself at 10. Finance announcement within a few weeks, then we build a mine.

Not sure what you are on about robbo, I presume it's a private joke or dig about moosie's charting skills.

The Ghost of Moosie is still out there, I just miss him I guess.

Anyway, buying at 11.5, 11, 10.5 were probably all good ideas at the time over the last few days.

Those guys who bought in at 11.5 on some hype about directors resigning or whatever the last two "major events" were are having an expensive paper-loss-laugh right now.

The only announcement that's gonna push the price up, in my view, is "we're been mining in secret and now we're actually making some money" or "one of the office guys won lotto but left it in the staff room so the company is keeping it as revenue."

Just my view though, doesn't mean jack!

:D:D:D I hope for the 11.5, 11 and 10.5 cent guys that 10 cent support, 200 day SMA and the line I draw up the bottom stays in tact :D:D:D

6276

DISC: Gonna put a buy order at 9 cents :D:D:D

[Xerof]

The Ghost of Moosie is still out there, I just miss him I guess.

my Crystal Ball says he's still lurking

No hype re the Director, just background info for those interested in the history.

Price gapped up through 10, so back-test fairly predictable. Not sure it has the legs to go to 9, but would be very good entry at that level IMO. There is a broker report just out (see their 'under reconstruction' website) for further background and a view on pricing. A few more are about to initiate coverage, now that they have some credibility - the company I mean, not the brokers. Read at your own risk as usual, of course :confused:

[robbo24]

my Crystal Ball says he's still lurking

No hype re the Director, just background info for those interested in the history.

Price gapped up through 10, so back-test fairly predictable. Not sure it has the legs to go to 9, but would be very good entry at that level IMO. There is a broker report just out (see their 'under reconstruction' website) for further background and a view on pricing. A few more are about to initiate coverage, now that they have some credibility - the company I mean, not the brokers. Read at your own risk as usual, of course :confused:

It gapped up from 9. See you there! I'll buy Moosie's shares from him at 9.

[robbo24]

Let's do a ooji board and summon moosie. He says something about f u Robbo and panic selling?

[robbo24]

Let's do a ooji board and summon moosie. He says something about f u Robbo and panic selling?

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

Here's some more squiggles and red arrows. I've totes got a buy order in at 9 cents.

6284

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

[Aotea]

who would know...I'm amazed this is below 10c given the MP issue.
I will never understand the markets it seems.
So much potential, huge money backing this project, stages 2 & 3 are looking great and the SP goes backwards?

[robbo24]

who would know...I'm amazed this is below 10c given the MP issue.
I will never understand the markets it seems.
So much potential, huge money backing this project, stages 2 & 3 are looking great and the SP goes backwards?

In my view, talk this talk about "big boys" and the "mining permit" had already hyped up the share price.

Everyone knew it was coming, it was not a surprise. Why would it launch the SP?

When do they start making money again??

[Aotea]

yeah fair call...hearing you there robbo.
still see this as a 1$ share come 2020, and thats the retirement set up.

[slimwin]

Hm. 2017 would be nicer...

[robbo24]

yeah fair call...hearing you there robbo.
still see this as a 1$ share come 2020, and thats the retirement set up.

I started watching AVB when an old friend of mine said a guy at his work (over in the mines) started pumping it to all his new-to-investing workmates.

I suggested after the first top of 11.5-12 cents to consider waiting until the 9 cent support. It dipped down to it and slowly came back up when the "TWO BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS" were on their way.

Now, it's just a guess, that it will test 9 cents again because that's where it gapped up from and that's where it found some support in the past. It's already slowly atrophied through the other nominal support areas.

I know nothing about the fundamental value of the company, I am sure it's outstanding :D

Seeing as I was making charts for my friend I thought I'd post them on here with my thoughts too. I've got no beef with the stock or the investors, I'm quite looking forward to a bounce off 9 cents.

[robbo24]

I started watching AVB when an old friend of mine said a guy at his work (over in the mines) started pumping it to all his new-to-investing workmates.

I suggested after the first top of 11.5-12 cents to consider waiting until the 9 cent support. It dipped down to it and slowly came back up when the "TWO BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS" were on their way.

Now, it's just a guess, that it will test 9 cents again because that's where it gapped up from and that's where it found some support in the past. It's already slowly atrophied through the other nominal support areas.

I know nothing about the fundamental value of the company, I am sure it's outstanding :D

Seeing as I was making charts for my friend I thought I'd post them on here with my thoughts too. I've got no beef with the stock or the investors, I'm quite looking forward to a bounce off 9 cents.

Here, I put some more red arrows on the chart 6286

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

That looked to me a bit like a failed test of 10 cent resistance. Man, it's so crazy how the last thing to push the SP past 10 cents was those "TWO BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS."

Those buyer depths seem to be diminishing a bit now too :eek2: Just look at the OBV. Money Flow and Ultimate Oscillator have all dropped out of the sky to (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=au%3Aavb&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=9%2F25%2F2014&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=4&maval=50%2C100%2C200&uf=8&lf=8&lf2=512&lf3=131072&type=4&style=320&size=4&x=52&y=10&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11)o...

I wonder where it will end up. 9 cents maybe?

[robbo24]

Here's as a summary, I've made a moving GIF file with theme music (http://gifmaker.cc/PlayGIFAnimation.php?folder=2014092420oWfwEuA6fnq7 pX8rPEKqbv&file=output_dIwglk.gif&music=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60qjjs-vRw&start=0) to show how the AVB chart is going.

[robbo24]

Here's as a summary, I've made a moving GIF file with theme music (http://gifmaker.cc/PlayGIFAnimation.php?folder=2014092420oWfwEuA6fnq7 pX8rPEKqbv&file=output_dIwglk.gif&music=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60qjjs-vRw&start=0) to show how the AVB chart is going.


http://i.imgur.com/oK8foPc.png
9 cents is getting closer... Closing below SMA 100 isn't a good sign.

Will it bounce tomorrow? :D:D:D:D

Or will it wait until RSI bottoms out? :D:D:D:D

[robbo24]

Do we have a minor reprieve for the paper-loss weary souls holding AVB from its heights at 11.5 cents? :D:D

:D

:D

:D

Probably not on these volumes and depths!!

It still gets some tentative green arrows off the smallest hammer known to man off the SMA 100.

Robbo 24 isn't convinced, Robbo 24 said a bounce of 9 cents not 9.1 cents.

http://i.imgur.com/sy7SSjf.png

[slimwin]

I say bring on next year...

[robbo24]

Still floating around 9 cents... Yawn. Never owned any, no current intentions on doing so.

Happy holding to those who bought at 12, 11.5, 11, 10.5 and 10 cents.

[slimwin]

AVB announce they consider their fianace a given and are starting exploration again for further stages. The market coughs.

It's a tough market for miners out there.

[slimwin]

AVB announce they consider their fianace a given and are starting exploration again for further stages. The market coughs.

It's a tough market for miners out there.

[silverblizzard888]

AVB announce they consider their fianace a given and are starting exploration again for further stages. The market coughs.

It's a tough market for miners out there.

Indeed it is, but looking at what the information release today, it is really just long term value added information, while in the short term concern is focused on actual production. In the mean time long term holders have stayed and short term holders being slowly filtered out. As much as its a statement that most would expect to put the share price higher, its more just an update that adds nothing in the short term share price. Exploration for stage 3 is great news for a long term holder and a notice of imminent finance that most people know is coming. Nothing that really changes value in the short term, which right now the market favours short term gains in actual production and sales or true progress in stage 1, with shares dropping in value so much we have a cautious market who want to invest in something that has more certainty so mining companies, especially explorers aren't favourable. Anyone in for the long term should be very pleased with the announcement of stage 3, signals intent to progress forward in the long run and the ambition to create something truly significant. Rocket at the loading dock for fuel, lift off will come, patience is key.

[robbo24]

Indeed it is, but looking at what the information release today, it is really just long term value added information, while in the short term concern is focused on actual production. In the mean time long term holders have stayed and short term holders being slowly filtered out. As much as its a statement that most would expect to put the share price higher, its more just an update that adds nothing in the short term share price. Exploration for stage 3 is great news for a long term holder and a notice of imminent finance that most people know is coming. Nothing that really changes value in the short term, which right now the market favours short term gains in actual production and sales or true progress in stage 1, with shares dropping in value so much we have a cautious market who want to invest in something that has more certainty so mining companies, especially explorers aren't favourable. Anyone in for the long term should be very pleased with the announcement of stage 3, signals intent to progress forward in the long run and the ambition to create something truly significant. Rocket at the loading dock for fuel, lift off will come, patience is key.

I don't like this stock because people on the Hot Copper forums like it.

However, I take a different view of a debt financing announcement. Such an announcement de-risks the investment considerably as it allows the rocket to get going.

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

[silverblizzard888]

I don't like this stock because people on the Hot Copper forums like it.

However, I take a different view of a debt financing announcement. Such an announcement de-risks the investment considerably as it allows the rocket to get going.

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

Haha fair enough, not sure what you have against Hot Cooper, but as the general rule goes never get emotional over a stock. AVB are doing all the right things and meeting their objectives, while having good strong fundamentals in being in a mining country that loves mining (unlike NZ), good cash flow of at least 30 million, experienced and diligent management, great permit locations with high grade copper, has been significantly de-risked with mining license and JORC and three major mining companies as shareholders that probably assist from time to time like Blackrocks royalty deal.

I absolutely agree that finance goes a long way in de-risking the project, but the general view is that its a given already because of the way management is talking about it and given this deal was agreed last year with them only having to meet certain criteria that they have likely already met with the licensing, JORC and the position of the company right now it seems like its likely going to happen. In the past when the price was at 11 cents I'd say finance was factored in, but due to the re-rating of stocks the market thought it was a better idea that the value not be added until finance has actually been approved so my view is finance is no longer factored into the price any more until it actually happens, then we might see it cracking pass 10 cents at least.

[robbo24]

Haha fair enough, not sure what you have against Hot Cooper, but as the general rule goes never get emotional over a stock. AVB are doing all the right things and meeting their objectives, while having good strong fundamentals in being in a mining country that loves mining (unlike NZ), good cash flow of at least 30 million, experienced and diligent management, great permit locations with high grade copper, has been significantly de-risked with mining license and JORC and three major mining companies as shareholders that probably assist from time to time like Blackrocks royalty deal.

I absolutely agree that finance goes a long way in de-risking the project, but the general view is that its a given already because of the way management is talking about it and given this deal was agreed last year with them only having to meet certain criteria that they have likely already met with the licensing, JORC and the position of the company right now it seems like its likely going to happen. In the past when the price was at 11 cents I'd say finance was factored in, but due to the re-rating of stocks the market thought it was a better idea that the value not be added until finance has actually been approved so my view is finance is no longer factored into the price any more until it actually happens, then we might see it cracking pass 10 cents at least.

I disagree. If you are an institutional investor, or any type of investor with specific contractual, statutory or equitable obligations to other investors, then you would not pay a cent more than the current risk profile allows. It would be suicide to assume that a few throwaway comments in a 2-3 page announcement would cause you to go beyond what is known.

Then there's also the FA/risk analysis that can only be carried out once the characteristics of the debt financing agreement are known. It is impossible to do this without a substantive announcement identifying such terms.

This is just my view, but I am confident that it holds water.

:D:D:D:D:D:D

[BFG]

Me thinks Robbo has failed to even read the BP report (which I would discount as they were the underwriter for last cap raise) as a base to do his own FA.

Seems he also missed the 14 pointer Moose on page 6.

He'd better get his eyes checked before hunting season this year, don't want him shooting Percy or SW by accident!

[robbo24]

Me thinks Robbo has failed to even read the BP report (which I would discount as they were the underwriter for last cap raise) as a base to do his own FA.

Seems he also missed the 14 pointer Moose on page 6.

He'd better get his eyes checked before hunting season this year, don't want him shooting Percy or SW by accident!

You are a drongo.

[silverblizzard888]

I disagree. If you are an institutional investor, or any type of investor with specific contractual, statutory or equitable obligations to other investors, then you would not pay a cent more than the current risk profile allows. It would be suicide to assume that a few throwaway comments in a 2-3 page announcement would cause you to go beyond what is known.

Then there's also the FA/risk analysis that can only be carried out once the characteristics of the debt financing agreement are known. It is impossible to do this without a substantive announcement identifying such terms.

This is just my view, but I am confident that it holds water.

:D:D:D:D:D:D

Well I was speaking on general terms of my view, which given I'm a retail investor that’s the type of view you get, but if we are to consider institutional investors then of course theres still too much risk for them to start stepping in until finance has absolutely been secured due to them being liable to their clients and must take a prudent approach because of that or else they could find their head on a chopping block and at the end of the day if they are being paid why take risk when they can wait and still receive a pay check, but waiting means missing out or buying at a high price with lower returns. This is generally why retail investors have the ability to beat the market and institutional investors, while half the institutional investors fail to beat the market (statistics quoted from Beat the street by Peter Lynch). Once finance is secured then yes we may see institutional investors stepping in for a bigger slice of the pie.

Until something happens then its not guaranteed, of course I understand that, but I don't necessarily have this worry and my view is financing is about a 90% given with the 10% possibility that it might not happen, but just the slight chance and even if they fail to get financing from the bank, with 30 million in the bank to fund a 70million project which 10 million of it is more or less there if the project really goes over planned budget, so given Blackrock will do a 12 million financing deal that really leaves them really only needing 18 million to 28 million, which worse comes to worse I'm sure they can find another bank or even do a capital raising for that cash, but that’s a unwanted situation because they need as much money they can get in order to develop stage 2 and no one wants to wait any longer. Worse comes to worse they aren't dead in the water, that’s what I trying to say and my reasoning to justify why I have invested. You can say its unknown, but for me all is not lost if if the first option doesn't go to plan, but perception is finance is likely to happen from the company and Bell Potter who have likely done a risk analysis themselves.

[BFG]

Hammer Time

:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

[BFG]

Results out for first drill. Not bad. SP up accordingly. Expecting 3 more before Xmas along with finance and building commencement announcements to boot.

Weekly chart looking great for a HAMMER REVERSAL

:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

[slimwin]

Excuse my charting ignorance, but what's a hammer reversal?

[BFG]

Tis your chance to do some research ;)

[BFG]

STRONG NEWS FLOWS AHEAD.

I like. A lot. Derisking is my favourite word :D

Good presentation AVB. Stick to those timelines and create us shareholders some wealth! :D

[Aotea]

cant understand the depressed share price...slowly derisking, huge upside, all good, my largest holding..go AVB

[BFG]

cant understand the depressed share price...slowly derisking, huge upside, all good, my largest holding..go AVB

Little/no broker coverage and insto involvement means traders still control this stock. Expect finance to change this.

[slimwin]

Tis your chance to do some research ;)
Yeah,that's why I asked someone who seemed to know. Not interested too much in TA for speccies. Each their own though.

[BFG]

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hammer_(candlestick_pattern)

Still needs confirmation via up week on chart. Gold and copper both up last night. Antiminas strike to go ahead on Monday. Me thinks we are going to be positive ;)

[slimwin]

Now, would you call gold a nice by-product of this and rate the stock on copper value only? I tend to.

[BFG]

Now, would you call gold a nice by-product of this and rate the stock on copper value only? I tend to.

Yes, as gold is only about 1/10th of future revenue and those grades would suggest by-product only. Kind of like a reverse OGC with its copper credits. I note Stage II has over 1M ozs JORC as well. Very nice!

[BFG]

Did some FA today and with a gold price of $1150 p/oz, copper price of $3.10 p/lb, EPS of .011 and PE of 11 I got a forward looking fair value price of JUST Stage I production @ 12 to 12.5 cents.

Obviously, Stage II conversion to JORC reserves, along with Stage III unknown grades coming through and Stage I financing these further stages means a concordant re-rate upwards.

Financing is the key here as we can see by the 50% discount. De-risking is the name of the game here, and AVB has held up well while others around it collapse.

So very close to financing. Oh... so... close... :D

[BFG]

good solid research Mr BFG........... appreciate you posting your research.

No problem. I'll post the spreadsheet up at a later date, looking to input more data soon.

[BFG]

Copper price should get a bit of support here as well...

http://copperinvestingnews.com/21864-peru-antamina-strike-copper-price-rio-tinto-bhp-glencore-teck-mitsubishi-b2gold-puma-tintina-nevada-copper-ncu.html

[Xerof]

don't worry too much about the spot copper price - all you need to know is they will be one of the lowest cost producers on the planet,their product will be top quality, and will earn a premium from the big guys who will want to blend it with their large volume, low quality crappy stuff, to bring up their average. Funding AND an off-take agreement (only one guess needed to work out who that might be) are scheduled for this quarter. TP is moving to Brazil to personally run the project to get into production by late Q2, early Q3. This is derisking at pace for Antas mine, the in-fill drill will begin at PB the moment finance is signed off, and the explorers are again out exploring for stages 3,4 and 5

Bell Potter have a report (conservative) which can be found on AVB website.

discl: hold lots, and still accumulating when I can

[BFG]

don't worry too much about the spot copper price - all you need to know is they will be one of the lowest cost producers on the planet,their product will be top quality, and will earn a premium from the big guys who will want to blend it with their large volume, low quality crappy stuff, to bring up their average. Funding AND an off-take agreement (only one guess needed to work out who that might be) are scheduled for this quarter. TP is moving to Brazil to personally run the project to get into production by late Q2, early Q3. This is derisking at pace for Antas mine, the in-fill drill will begin at PB the moment finance is signed off, and the explorers are again out exploring for stages 3,4 and 5

Bell Potter have a report (conservative) which can be found on AVB website.

discl: hold lots, and still accumulating when I can

So it's YOU accumulating!!! :) (Iay or may not have joined in last week...)

What you make of the low volumes of trading X? Will the roadshow fix this?

[Xerof]

The roadshows are already done - Melbourne Monday, Sydney yesterday. Finance, off-takes, and commissioning the plant will see renewed interest. This is a long-game play to $1+ in 3 to 5 years from here.

In the meantime, players can happily turn on their bots and sell down to buy back, as sentiment across the sector is still ****. We just need to look for the right opportunities to add - at least thats the way I see it.

[BFG]

Cheers Xerof. May flick the company an e-mail telling them to put the presentations up through ASX like so many other companies. The PR is getting better but still needs a step up!

I'm betting another drill result will be up, then it's finance time ;)

[Xerof]

I understand they were just face to face meetings with a few brokers, using the same presso as the AGM. Brokers are seriously jaundiced at the moment, so I wouldn't expect much enthusiasm to have been shown......

As you know, this sector is not very popular at the moment, and AVB is tarred with the same brush as most of the other 1000's of wannabe's who have no access to cash other than pandering to soph's, (who then just sell and run), very little management experience in actually building mines, or the location with infrastructure within spitting distance. On these characteristics alone, it is grossly under the radar, but I don't think mr market will climb aboard until they see cash from copper sales coming in the door, so late 2015/early 2016. Having said that they have plenty of other irons in the fire, with PB decision to mine expected mid 2015, and more exploration on the go, both able to add speculative interest, and they are continually appraising new opportunities in Carajas

On the basis Mr Market just isn't interested, there is plenty of time to accumulate more. I don't expect a massive rerating to happen overnight, (but happy to be proven wrong on that) and continue to hold my view that this is a 5+ year pathway to full value of $1+, on the basis they WILL build at least 3 mines in the region

Discl: hold lots, (more than the lots I held at last discl :)), and reckon it's very good value around 7.5/8.5 cents

[BFG]

Agreed. Not every day you have one, let aline THREE, big international funds pay a PREMIUM to buy into your company! Speaks volumes to me and is the main reason why I hold.

[robbo24]

http://internationalliving.com/countries/brazil/taxes/

I see that the Brazilian tax year is 1 Jan-31 Dec.

:D:D:D:D:D

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20141120/pdf/42tw205h99mw5v.pdf

[BFG]

Alignment of tax year to Brazil - check.

Full depreciation of mining equipment straight off the bat for tax reduction - check.

So, so, so close now...

[BFG]

Someone starting to take an interest in AVB now, not even really bothering with the spread. 8M went through off market as well.

I can smell an announcement ahead...

[BFG]

Pedra Branca (Stage 2) license filed with Brazilian government. These guys are KEEN and starting to move fast since Woods was ousted! Wish they'd announce thid kind of stuff to the markrt though, PR doesn't hurt and had to go searching for this info.

[robbo24]

Pedra Branca (Stage 2) license filed with Brazilian government. These guys are KEEN and starting to move fast since Woods was ousted! Wish they'd announce thid kind of stuff to the markrt though, PR doesn't hurt and had to go searching for this info.

Woof woof woof woof woof.

What's that noise?

It's AVB.

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

[hillbillybob]

Hopefully Finance and new drill results before Xmas, then all systems green for 2015. Lots of new plant about to arrive on site next month or two so should see the s/p improve going forward. Agree that buying hi 7's low 8's is very good value .

[robbo24]

Here's another new researh document on AVB. It is prepared by Hartleys dated 28 November: http://www.avancoresources.com/content/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/ResearchNoteHartleys28Nov14.pdf

Valuation: 11 cents
Price target: 13 cents

Let the good times roll.

:D

[Xerof]

No ones in the mood for buying these at the moment, and probably won't until they have a mine up and running. Value at current levels but could come cheaper yet, such is the nervousness on commodities. I think the two newer big holders are helping with the push lower - they have definitely sold a few mill each, so at what level do they look to rebuy ? Original entry 7.5?

[robbo24]

I think the two newer big holders are helping with the push lower - they have definitely sold a few mill each

You think, but where my friend is the proof?

[BFG]

Anything to reassure the market right now would be nice. I don't mean further rhetoric. I mean actual drill results, an update on bank talks, even announcing that new research would be a plus.

AVB still has a ling way to go with PR. If nothing is done along their own dated timeline for December I'm going to be extremely angry and would rate them lower than PEB management.

LESS TALK, MORE ACTION!!!

[Xerof]

You think, but where my friend is the proof?

A bit of research goes a long way robbo

I compared the declared holdings from the latest annual report to the latest declared holdings in the Hartley report, which takes the data from Iress

BR have dropped from 11.52% to 11.4% and Appian dropped from 11.6% to 11.2%. Need to keep in mind these guys are commodity trader types, and probably can't resist fiddling in the markets with BOTs or whatever scratches their itches

[Xerof]

Moosie, I think we will get news of the ballsy equipment being delivered to site, some assay results, and (I'm less confident of Brazilian bank speed of execution) confirmation, but not formal signing of debt facilities, all before Xmas. I know TP is hopeful of debt being confirmed before the break, but it isn't something he has much control over.

As you yourself alluded to re the license , there are lots of matters being ticked off the to-do list in the background, without any fanfare - thats the way these guys operate

[BFG]

Moosie, I think we will get news of the ballsy equipment being delivered to site, some assay results, and (I'm less confident of Brazilian bank speed of execution) confirmation, but not formal signing of debt facilities, all before Xmas. I know TP is hopeful of debt being confirmed before the break, but it isn't something he has much control over.

As you yourself alluded to re the license , there are lots of matters being ticked off the to-do list in the background, without any fanfare - thats the way these guys operate

True. I just think they could keep us better informed at times. Nothing really material for the past 2 months leaves a lot of fear in the market when the biggest ann is yet to come.

I'm in for the drilling wild card. "We have intercepted average grades of 5% over xkm strike length". That'd be a good Xmas present :)

[Xerof]

I compared the declared holdings from the latest annual report to the latest declared holdings in the Hartley report, which takes the data from Iress

BR have dropped from 11.52% to 11.4% and Appian dropped from 11.6% to 11.2%.

I have good reason to believe the Hartley % numbers are incorrect, so I am retracting my earlier conclusions.

sorry about that chiefs, stand at ease

[BFG]

I have good reason to believe the Hartley % numbers are incorrect, so I am retracting my earlier conclusions.

sorry about that chiefs, stand at ease

Someone is in the background seeing the low liquidity as a great short option though. No SSH/Appendix 3B.

Lack of news on a falling market precipitates a climate of fear! :D

[Xerof]

Someone is in the background seeing the low liquidity as a great short option though. No SSH/Appendix 3B.

Lack of news on a falling market precipitates a climate of fear! :DThey've been doing it for years. Juniors get sold persistently between announcements - just have to pick your entry levels and keep an eye on the fundamentals to keep your spirits up

[BFG]

Avanco Copper plant 3D fly through posted up today. So close you can taste it...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UYOhpPj6CDk

[Xerof]

Avanco Copper plant 3D fly through posted up today. So close you can taste it...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UYOhpPj6CDk

Can you actually open that Moosie? Maybe it's exclusively for Canadians, as it says "it's not available in my country". I'm told it's likely to be a PR company's draft for later release by AVB. Well spotted anyway!

Also, Robbo, on further digging since my earlier assertion and retraction, I have worked out that both the company Annual Report, and Hartley's report have the numbers held by BR (IofM, and UK) recorded incorrectly in their publications. (understated)

It turns out they have actually been accumulating (and picked up that 8m from last week or so) but the movement is less than 1%, so no SSH required (yet)

It seems they are very good at churning though........however, they are playing the long game, like me

[BFG]

So it was them chewing through the black pool sell eh? I'm sure they would live more at these levels then! That crosses them off as the active capper/seller then.

[BFG]

Well, if constrained supply growth and rising Chinese demand isn't enough to raise prices I don't know what would be!

http://headlines.ransquawk.com/headlines/anz-says-copper-supply-growth-falling-short-and-demand-in-china-rising-copper-mine-supply-growth-in-2013-14-about-5-04-12-2014

[silverblizzard888]

Can you actually open that Moosie? Maybe it's exclusively for Canadians, as it says "it's not available in my country". I'm told it's likely to be a PR company's draft for later release by AVB. Well spotted anyway!

Also, Robbo, on further digging since my earlier assertion and retraction, I have worked out that both the company Annual Report, and Hartley's report have the numbers held by BR (IofM, and UK) recorded incorrectly in their publications. (understated)

It turns out they have actually been accumulating (and picked up that 8m from last week or so) but the movement is less than 1%, so no SSH required (yet)

It seems they are very good at churning though........however, they are playing the long game, like me

Theres is another way to view the video if its not available in your country. You just use a website and download the youtube video, bypasses it all haha. Download size is 17mb for the 4 minute video. Thats what I did and works like a charm if your curiosity extends that far. Video is mainly a 3D generated model of what the whole plant looks like and each stage of it while processing the ores to obtain cooper, with some jazz music lol.

[hillbillybob]

Can you actually open that Moosie? Maybe it's exclusively for Canadians, as it says "it's not available in my country". I'm told it's likely to be a PR company's draft for later release by AVB. Well spotted anyway!

Also, Robbo, on further digging since my earlier assertion and retraction, I have worked out that both the company Annual Report, and Hartley's report have the numbers held by BR (IofM, and UK) recorded incorrectly in their publications. (understated)

It turns out they have actually been accumulating (and picked up that 8m from last week or so) but the movement is less than 1%, so no SSH required (yet)

It seems they are very good at churning though........however, they are playing the long game, like me

And we know where the 8m shares came from ??

[BFG]

And we know where the 8m shares came from ??

Would have to pick up a shareholders list to know.

[Xerof]

And we know where the 8m shares came from ??

Yes, but I'm not the messenger. Having said that, it should be patently obvious to anyone who follows the unfolding governance of this company with a degree of diligence as to who might be a disaffected holder.

[BFG]

Would have to pick up a shareholders list to know.
Haha or not. Jeez can't believe I forgot that possible overhang! Thanks Xerof ;)

[hillbillybob]

Yes, MW .and he still holds maybe 12 mill ??

[BFG]

Yes, MW .and he still holds maybe 12 mill ??

Maybe. What price did he get his shares at again? Pretty much nothing if memory serves me. That 12M could be gone in day of announcement trading easy.

Now, if we could only get an announcement (or five...)...

[BFG]

Some one really wants to tank this stock, jeez!

[BFG]

Do we really have to remind management of the targets they have set for us? Over a month since AGM and the most significant news item has been a change of calendars on boardroom walls...

6569

[robbo24]

SMA 50 cross of SMA 200, not good for AVB.

Dead in the water...

[BFG]

If these guys announce nothing prior to New Years I'll be heading down your way Robbo to smoke an entire carton of Winnie Blues with you. Might have to bring the vodka and a handgun as well at that rate!

[hillbillybob]

We need news before new years imo, we need it before they all go to Rio for Xmas, banks included, I would say the deadline is the 19th Dec or it's Feb / March next year. Where will the SMA 50 cross of SMA 200 be sitting then.? Mind you the 5 year chart would suggest a bounce from just below where we sit now. Might have to buy the 6's again :confused:

[BFG]

Some very serious "please explain" words will be coming from me if none of those targets are hit...

[Xerof]

Some very serious "please explain" words will be coming from me if none of those targets are hit...

lol, I'm sure they will be quivering in their boots Moosie

just relax, there's plenty of cat and mouse playing out here, and the cat has it all over the mice.

[BFG]

Moose are meeces are mice is mooses?

[BFG]

This flow of awesome news is absolutely staggering. I can't believe how lucky we are to have this great team with absolutely amazing PR skills keeping us shareholders informed!

Disc - massive amounts of sarcasm used in post...

[Xerof]

Patience Moosie, there is going to be news before there will be moose pellets in that christmas stocking hanging from your left antler :t_up:

[BFG]

Patience Moosie, there is going to be news before there will be moose pellets in that christmas stocking hanging from your left antler :t_up:

I get coal every year. Last year I actually got Grumpy Cat. Too bad I scared him off with my negativity, could have been a squillionaire by now with all the $$$s he pulled in this year!

[BFG]

Looks like Barrick doesn't like 20% royalty taxes (don't blame them really!):

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/barrick-to-suspend-operations-at-zambian-copper-mine/article22139199/?service=mobile

Apparently Zambia was number 7 in the world and made up 4.7% of worldwide copper production in 2013. It is also by far and away the countries largest export.

If this continues you can easily say goodbye to the forecasted copper surplus in 2015 and say hello deficit!

[BFG]

Well, very ashamed to admit I own part of this company today. It's been over a month since we last heard even a whisper, and over two months since the regional exploration got under way. By my calcs, most companies are able to get their drill results in within 6 weeks of putting them into the ground. We are now 8 weeks past.

Absolutely horrendous track record for meeting targets so this should come ss no surprise I guess. "Strong newsflows coming up" my arse...

[BFG]

Every hour that goes by we are one closer to a significant addition of broken timelines. Unbelievable that management pretty much promised us huge newsflows in Q4/December yet can't even get a SINGLE announcement out since promising this.

Where are those drills? WTF are they doing?!?!

[slimwin]

Eating burritos?

[BFG]

Eating burritos?

Obviously they think this is much more important than keeping shareholders informed and sticking to promises!

[BFG]

did you ever think it maybe taking longer/finding it harder to achieve drill results they want to take to the market..... pretty sure they would be crowing by now if they had something to crow about.

Seems pretty convenient that the AGM saw first drill results released a mere 2 weeks after exploration "commenced". I find it quite amazing they could do it this fast as I have never seen that kind of speed before, followed by 6 weeks of pure silence! Something doesn't stack up here...

[BFG]

I tend to agree........ SOMETHING SMELLS

Sorry, I'll go put more deoderant on :D

[hillbillybob]

Sorry, I'll go put more deoderant on :D

Patience....Finance deal not far away.....

[BFG]

Granted they have 3 1/2 days left to announce anything, but they are seriously trsting the limits. Somehow I doubt managers stay behind over Xmas/New Years to announce to the market. Maybe they just buggered off after the "New Calendar Year" ann in November and thought they'd just put it all in the too hard basket until 2015...

[BFG]

Very interesting watching all the asks in the depth get pulled this morning as bids were still on the board, so not an ASX clear out. Does somebodu know something? Or is this just a low volume pump for the accumulator to offload a slightly higher price?

[hillbillybob]

Very interesting watching all the asks in the depth get pulled this morning as bids were still on the board, so not an ASX clear out. Does somebodu know something? Or is this just a low volume pump for the accumulator to offload a slightly higher price?

Could probably safely say the low was hit (6.6) if somebody knows something at least todays s/p suggests it's good rather than bad. ??

[BFG]

Could probably safely say the low was hit (6.6) if somebody knows something at least todays s/p suggests it's good rather than bad. ??

I'd rather some higher volume and some good news than thin trading and silence!

Nonetheless, it does look like the bottom is in short term and both downtrend lines have now been negated if the trend continues upwards tomorrow. Also, a nice ascending triangle has formed. Bullish. FINALLY!

[BFG]

Some pretty awesome drill results out from CuDeco today saw the stock fly nearly 20%. If AVB could get its act together and infill drill Stage 2 and actually inform us shareholders of what's going on I'm sure we could make it even better. They have 1 day left to meet ANY of the targets they set down.

Come on management we all deserve MUCH better than this!!!

[BFG]

This is the last day of the year and Q4. If they have 3 big announcements they better get them out today. Why do these guys promise things they can't deliver?

6633

[hillbillybob]

It's not going to happen today is it. And even if it did todays not a good day for announcements IMO. They can blame the banks for finance delay and the lab for core's delay but there is other news such as plant purchased and delivered etc which has not been mentioned. I do believe they wanted to announce the finance first and they will be disappointed this hasn't happened as they expected before this year end. But s/p has been positive last few days and yesterdays volume although not big was an improvement on recent times. So we wait for 2015 and everyone involved to return to work and set the wheels in motion which COULD be Feb ??? I wouldn't be surprised if they have offers of finance on their desk but they may not agree with the terms ?? I'm disappointed but not put off, although I will watch the 1st qtr. 2015 very closely. I've held these for a while and am now losing on the exchange rate, which could hit $4$. ??

[BFG]

I'm disappointed by the fact that a) I ignored their very long history of blowing past deadlines, b) got sucked into thinking they'd be different with driftWoods gone and c) they blatantly don't care about keeping shareholders informed!

[hillbillybob]

I personally know a few guys who attended the last AGM, in fact the last few AGM's. AVB are making progress but certainly not with keeping shareholders informed as promised at the AGM. This IS in their control whereas other matters such as finance and slow labs are not . Mind you the core results may have been not worth reporting and maybe the banks are sweating over the present copper price trend and immediate outlook. But at the end of the day the company is confident, they have spent millions on new gear and getting it to Brazil and most of the gear is oversized so they expect to extract more product than they report. Bottom line though is a disappointing end to 2014. Can only get better I guess, bring it on.

[BFG]

Oh look an announcement! Oh wait, expired options...

At least we know these guys aren't dead at their desks and no one has found their carcasses yet. Always a plus!

[BFG]

Right, now that the almighty leader has spoken, timeto get down to mining right?

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2015-01/02/c_133892416.htm

[BFG]

This should also help copper price:

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-02/iron-ore-kicks-off-2015-with-rally-on-china-stimulus-speculation.html

Chinese warehouses should start restocking in January as well.

I see copper is still going downwards @ $2.85 p/lb with futures @ $2.81. If there is going to be a shortage like BHP and others are forecasting then this pricing is going to look like bargain of the century...

[BFG]

Iron ore prices headed back up a bit last week. Same deal for Copper on Chinese stimulus? Let's hope so and that a nice rise convinces the other Brazilian banks to get their A into G!

[hillbillybob]

Avb + 8% = ?

[BFG]

Avb + 8% = ?

Haha I saw that too. Someone must have slipped and hit the wrong button. AVB doesn't go up, that's crazy talk!

Still, in all seriousness I can see a breakout above 8 forming if we get follow on and more volume tomorrow. Could be a bollinger band climb starting, but I want to see some freakin' announcements from management!

[Aotea]

hold tight, not a lot of stock for sale below 10c, so expect it to take off when it ineviatbaly does....my biggest holding and feeling good albeit the last few months have been noticably quiet. Have picked these as my only mineral pick in the 2015 comp so expect good things. All the best and accept the recent criticism of the company.

[BFG]

3Y showing up showing expired 15 cent options. Be nice if Directors had been topping up at these prices to replace those they knew were going to expire. Pretty sad when you own nearly as many shares as a Director as well!

[hillbillybob]

Pretty sad as you say, his 782.120 holding is pretty pathetic for a director IMO, how much confidence has he in AVB becoming a successful mining company you might ask ?:t_down: I hold twice as many :cool: I'm confident the best is ahead of us yet but....

[BFG]

Pretty sad as you say, his 782.120 holding is pretty pathetic for a director IMO, how much confidence has he in AVB becoming a successful mining company you might ask ?:t_down: I hold twice as many :cool: I'm confident the best is ahead of us yet but....

Yeah, the bad signs keep stacking up...

[Xerof]

Pretty sad as you say, his 782.120 holding is pretty pathetic for a director IMO, how much confidence has he in AVB becoming a successful mining company you might ask ?:t_down: I hold twice as many :cool: I'm confident the best is ahead of us yet but....

this is the pharlap of the copper juniors, isn't it hbbob.....:cool:

I added more last week at 6.8. These levels are gift-horses :sleep:

Colin Jones is a man many years our senior bob, whose investment profile should perhaps not include mining juniors. Good on him for owning as many as he does

[hillbillybob]

sprung :cool:

[robbo24]

sprung :cool:

Hey... Hey... Everyone just calm down and let's get back to BFG talking to himself :D:D:D

[BFG]

Noting a break of all daily moving averages on the charts and a stacking of bids below 9 cents. Also noting a massive amount of views on Hot Crapper. What, does everyone just look and not touch? It's not a strip bar guys!

[robbo24]

you know if no one reply's to him on here he will send you a lot more emails Robbo24:p

Oh he's moved well beyond emails. I woke up to a volley of voice messages and even video messages.

My view on the AVB chart is that it is stronger than it was but still kind of teetering either way...

The monthly chart shows the 8.7 share price is sitting right at the monthly SMA 50 and this also coincides with the upper trend line (downwards). A month ago I picked out a symmetric triangle pattern (http://www.moneydust.com/2009/09/stock-chart-pattern-symmetrical.html) on the monthly. In my roundabout way I considered it a possibility of breakout this month or next month. The target range for a triangle breakout would put AVB at like 16 cents. Would be fun to see.

It would be a really good sign to see a close about 8.7 cents, a close at or above 9 cents would be excellent.

[BFG]

Be nice to see a breather here on high volume support to get a new base for new rises next week established. The higher the price is towards 10 cents when good news comes out the better.

15-17 cents is my "fair value" derisked price for AVB (without further drill results on Srage 2 or 3), so 16 cents will do just fine thanks :)

[robbo24]

:p
you gave him your phone number....... I hope he does not know where you live.
You will know if he at your door by the extra loud moose hoof knocks at the door........ my advice is just pretend you are not home.:p:p:p

He knew where I lived at one point but refused to take my good advice of writing my address in vivid on his arm.

[BFG]

:p
you gave him your phone number....... I hope he does not know where you live.
You will know if he at your door by the extra loud moose hoof knocks at the door........ my advice is just pretend you are not home.:p:p:p

I have his phone number, Whatsapp, Facebook profile AND have visited his abode as well. Regular Bonnie and Clyde we are (he's Bonnie of course).

Now Robbo, if you start to tell stories about me you know I have a few about you too ;)

[robbo24]

I have his phone number, Whatsapp, Facebook profile AND have visited his abode as well. Regular Bonnie and Clyde we are (he's Bonnie of course).

Now Robbo, if you start to tell stories about me you know I have a few about you too ;)

They aren't stories, they are chronicals of greatness. Don't they teach you the difference in history class?

[BFG]

They aren't stories, they are chronicals of greatness. Don't they teach you the difference in history class?
You do know how Napoleon ended eh?

[BFG]

You guys should hit the hammer and then start drunken posting this afternoon.

Only if you buy the first 3 rounds of 7% beers buddie ;)

[robbo24]

Only if you buy the first 3 rounds of 7% beers buddie ;)

It's all fun and games when you start downing pints at the start of the night then wake up at home the next morning.

Buyer beware - always check your craft beer %.

[BFG]

Copper has just officially imploded. Sell limits hit on the Shanghai exchange for the day.

Not good, very bad...

[hillbillybob]

Copper Hit a five year low last night before bouncing. AVB announcement out this-morning. Looks like funding is wrapped up and the drills are spinning flat out..

[BFG]

Holy crap, they are actually still alive! It's a miracle! Tbh there is nothing much new here and it just sounds like a "we're doing the job, leave us alone" note. Still not impressed with management but at least stuff is happening now. Drill baby, drill.

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3793854

[Aotea]

was thinking of selling half my holding and topping up in RMS...still feel AVB is the goods, but gee, they test the shareholders patience!

[hillbillybob]

Quarterly out Friday, not that it will improve the s/p but might get some news re; site, plant, etc.

[BFG]

HIGHLIGHTS
 Banco Votorantim (Antas syndication leader) is committed to delivering the debt facility for Stage 1. Interrogation of term sheets has concluded with two blue- chip Brazilian groups being shortlisted. Syndication will likely proceed with one, or both of these parties targeting completion before end of current quarter

They better still be committed! Let's see if the can stick to the end of March deadline or they blow right through it just like every other timeline they have put up so far...

 With prospective syndicating groups sharing a longer term copper focus, Avanco understands that the much bigger Pedra Branca Project is considered a financial “incentive” representing further opportunity for the Brazilians to grow their mining book

Of course it's a bigger incentive, so why did drills go wandering off into the country when the big pot of gold is much closer to home and much easier to drill in the short-term? Were management too excited about the money coming their way that they fitched their priorities? Why was this not brough up at the beginning of the process to begin with?

 With cautious optimism in the Antas financing process the Board has approved the resumption of Pedra Branca drilling

Cautious? You guys were "aggressively" seeking debt funding not 4 months ago! Why the caution now?

 In recognising the priorities, the Stage 2 programme takes precedence over the recent exciting discovery at Nova Esperança. An update for Nova Esperança is pending final assay results

As above, so why did you go out jogging into the deep dark woods? Did the bank have to remind you of your own priorities? Why were only 3 out of 5 drills completed in such a long space of time (over 4 months!)? Pretty epic failure there guys with only one assay announced to spruik before AGM time...

 Two drill rigs are operational at Stage 2 and on schedule to deliver an upgrade to the classification of JORC Reported Resources on completion of the current infill drilling

Good! Concentrate on what matters and upgrade that JORC to build shareholder wealth and reassure the market!

 Amounting to ~4,000m of diamond drilling, the programme aims to upgrade ~50% of the current Inferred JORC Reported Resources to Indicated category

4kms of the stuff. Nice. Can't wait for when it's 100%!

 The increased Resource confidence will, initially underpin a Scoping Study which could subsequently improve to Pre-feasibility level as the Indicated category grows to exceed 50%

And a mining permit as well for Stage 2???

 Debt funding progress and the start of Pedra Branca drilling commences what promises to be a very exciting year for Avanco. News flow is expected to be continuous with results from the Antas Feasibility Study and Stage 3 regional exploration anticipated

I'll believe it when I see it. You guys promised a feasibility study, drill assays, off-take agreements AND finance in Q4 and December of 2014. We heard NOTHING from you that entire time. You need to start walking the walk before you can talk the talk...

This also leaves me with a question. Are BV and syndicates looking to make Stage 2 up and go ASAP with funding may be lumped together with Stage 1s? It appears the bank is the opposite of being tight here and really wants to get on with the big show at Stage 2, not diddle around in Stage 1 letting the cashflow from that fund the next stages. Do they want a good hold on AVB debt so as to pre-empt big boys going further into it and/or a takeover?

There is a lot of good things going for AVB, but management really need to pull their socks up and keep the market informed WAY more. I hope BlackRock et al coach them in this and give a guiding hand.

These guys can make it, so I still hold (but am very miffed right now!!!)

[Xerof]

Not the best wording is it......

However, if you had attended any recent AGM's or side meetings, it would be a little clearer as to whats going on:



TP was only going to release the PB infill drillers when he was confident of stage 1 funding coming together. Take todays message as just that - they are confident enough to get cracking on PB infill even though documentation is not finalised. I trust them on that judgement.
It is clear that the banks "want in" for the funding of stage 2 and beyond, rather than be back in the general pack whenever stage 2 funding negotiation commences with all and sundry. Fair enough, I can understand that, so perhaps there is a bit more horse-trading occurring, in order for them to be 'locked and loaded'. In the long run I would have thought this is an excellent stance to take - they won't have to piss around for months later in the year, providing the terms are good enough. (They have hired a top gun to assist them with the funding)
Unfair to say they were wandering around drilling for the sake of it. They got on with regional exploration while they were waiting for the glaciers to melt at DNPM and the bank. They reckon they have made a decent discovery with the first poke in the ground, and will (excitedly) report on it shortly. It could be stage 3 - here's hoping, but even if not, there are plenty of good leads and ground to be pursued over the next decade or two. Plenty of time for that - lets get stages 1 and 2 going first shall we?
Due to the delays in getting ML and funding, they are now behind schedule for stage 1 cashflow, so, rightly so, they have taken exploratory drilling off the front-burner, and want to get stage 2 in-fill done, in an effort to get back on schedule, in the bigger picture.
I would like to think they have gone a little conservative on timelines, so end of quarter for funding may be 'unambitious'
You have misread the 'cautious optimism' comment. They have reached the level of cautious optimism that allows them to unleash the drillers on PB from their own funding, confident the kitty will be replenished from bank reimbursement of monies already spent on capital items. Expect some update on capital items and their location in the Qtly.


I have always said this is a long game - as you can see from the pathetic selling volumes lately, most of the impatient have sold to the patient.

[BFG]

Thanks for your thoughts Xerof. Yes, volume was pathetic today as someone sold down in disgust. Our big buyer was waiting for it all though. These guys have patience and tells me it's most likely BR or Appian doing some accumulating before things are finalised.

I am happier knowing that Stage 2 is being actively targetted now. The "company maker" was always at Stage 2 (@ 5-7 times the size of Stage 1).

[BFG]

Since we know they haven't been killed by giant pythons or eaten by fire ants, I assume the Directors are more than willing to show us how much they have spent of our hard earned without any news this quarter tomorrow morning?

[Xerof]

They've been persistently gored by an impertinent moose for the past 3 months, so you will understand that expenditure on medical bills will exceed budget in the Qtly:D

I was looking through the AVB website for detail on Nova Esperanca last night, only to find all reference to it under 'regional exploration' has been taken off the website. It's even been taken out of the regional map. Given they are excited by initial drilling, I am assuming it will shortly appear on the project list in its own right, alongside AN and PB.

exciting....

[BFG]

They've been persistently gored by an impertinent moose for the past 3 months, so you will understand that expenditure on medical bills will exceed budget in the Qtly:D

I was looking through the AVB website for detail on Nova Esperanca last night, only to find all reference to it under 'regional exploration' has been taken off the website. It's even been taken out of the regional map. Given they are excited by initial drilling, I am assuming it will shortly appear on the project list in its own right, alongside AN and PB.

exciting....

A bit hopeful on that front. Only a few drills and nowhere close to pre-feasibility or JORC resources. They haven't even finished the full round of drilling to get a good grip on what would be the next logical Stage anyways! Sorry if I'm cynical with AVB, but I'm sure no one would blame me for doing so.

[Xerof]

Cynics tend to read selectively. I suggest you reread the last paragraph of the last Ann, and soak in their bracketed description of Nova Esp. Agreed on early days, but PB also had them excited after the first few holes.

see if that rattles your antlers

[BFG]

"In recognising expenditure priorities the Stage 2 programme takes precedence over the recent discovery at Nova Esperança (prospective Stage 3). Moreover, those regional exploration targets not tested in 2014 (São Pedro and Água Azul) are also being rescheduled. An update on the exciting Nova Esperança discovery will be provided as soon as assays become available."

They better be some good grades and resources! Inbetween Antas and Pedra would be nice. Another mine larger than Pedra would be a bonus.

[BFG]

Where the hell is our quarterly???

[BFG]

Where the hell is our quarterly???

Never mind, quarterly activities and cashflow are up:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150130/pdf/42w9072yfnr7mb.pdf

Nothing unexpected really. I do like the bit about high-quality copper demanding a premium and a potential off-take in the making. Those drill results are average at best, but not surprising since they hid them for so long! Bank syndication yada yada yada ok, we get it, just clinche it please already!

[BFG]

Directors buying. Paltry amounts, but a start...

[hillbillybob]

AS they bought yesterday it may be a couple weeks now before any price sensitive announcement is made...which makes it March, Q1 end for finance. Which is what they predicted anyhow..

[BFG]

AS they bought yesterday it may be a couple weeks now before any price sensitive announcement is made...which makes it March, Q1 end for finance. Which is what they predicted anyhow..

I don't trust anything they put out anymore. It happens when it happens imho.

[hillbillybob]

Noticeable increase in volume today and up 1/2 cent to boot. Could be a sniff of what's to come..

[robbo24]

Some interesting things going on with AVB at the moment.

Support building over 7 cents more and more every day. The shareprice is slowly creeping up too.

Sellers have withdrawn as well. My live depth chart shows that basically none of the sell orders currently in place are recent. Most of them are from last year.

The bulk of buyer depth is from this week.

It's even trading above SMA 200 for the first time in a while...

Perhaps a sign of a little bit of a change in AVB's fortunes? Interesting to see what eventuates.

[hillbillybob]

AVB has awoken from it's long hibernation..........:D

[psychic]

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3850672

AGM date extended 1 month so that AVB can "negotiate a number of proposals including those from related parties"

What's this about? Finance not approved? Hoping recent activity suggests this is a positive somehow..?

[hillbillybob]

They are to sell an "asset " to a related party ?? and need share holder approval . hence the AGM delay.

[psychic]

Trading halt this morning. I'm happier in than out at this stage, certainly heaps of upside here if ducks are now in a row. See what happens I guess.

[Xerof]

Trading halt this morning. I'm happier in than out at this stage, certainly heaps of upside here if ducks are now in a row. See what happens I guess.

7292

From the quacking I hear, hi ho hi ho, a-mining we will go

[Xerof]

Ah well, everyone is entitled to an opinion I guess, but I'll stick to the party mode..........

[robbo24]

all's good xerof...I have been following this one closely for a while now and I think any announcement will have a positive spin and you may get your party then the reality and hangover will set in when investors see who the deal is heavily weighted towards.
they most certainly are not going to say that any deal is bad for minority shareholders......that will be up to you to work out.
Take a look at TON recent announcement and share price reaction.......this could will happen to AVB.
One thing is for sure if AVB have not been able to raise mining production funds via a bank loan whoever and how ever the funds are raised will take full advantage of this.
I am a bit suspicious........ you have probably noticed yourself AVB shares have been manipulated down and held down for sometime....this gives weight to a very favourable cap raise for the big boys.

Look what happened to TON - 400% gains in a week or two for those who sold on announcement day. Gee what a terrible shame.

[robbo24]

yep hope that happens for AVB holders but remember those suckers who got overly excited about TON's announcement and bought on announcement day now sit on a 50% loss.

You and I both know one sucker who bought at AVB's post-announcement top last year then followed up with a TON post-announcement top buy too :D

Got to be cautious of these mining developers and the greyhound-betting-style trading that occurs with these HotCopper delinquents :D

[Xerof]

Look what happened to TON - 400% gains in a week or two for those who sold on announcement day. Gee what a terrible shame.

TON got my comments when it spiked on the 'discovery'. I hope holders took that advice.

AVB had it's discovery spike a few years ago. It's now entering the move to production phase. Google 'mining co life cycle' for a graphic, but anyone with an interest in mining juniors will know this already.

Yes, Snap, there will be some tweaks to how this financing plays out, but you are being far too negative.

I'm not expecting a huge spike - I've said it repeatedly, this is a 5 year hold (now 4 year) from here, not a short term trade.

If the related party proposal is unfair, the other 2 12% holders, the organised proxy group of about 10% and other minor holders will be able to vote it down. I'm guessing here, but my pick is for an off-take agreement with Glencore, with some of the cash up-front (possibly in the form of a small CR) to cover a small shortfall from one or both jelly-arsed syndicate banks. But, I have been known to be wrong:eek2:

[Xerof]

You and I both know one sucker who bought at AVB's post-announcement top last year then followed up with a TON post-announcement top buy too :D

Got to be cautious of these mining developers and the greyhound-betting-style trading that occurs with these HotCopper delinquents :D

Oh, is that why you non-holders show such an interest - poor old moosie lol, leave him be you bullies :D I see he's reincarnated on HC in his original moose outfit, doing TA on copper, ffs!

[robbo24]

Oh, is that why you non-holders show such an interest - poor old moosie lol, leave him be you bullies :D I see he's reincarnated on HC in his original moose outfit, doing TA on copper, ffs!

Disc: Holding TON (at a huge discount to Moose) :D
Disc: Holding AVB (at a huge discount to Moose) :D

[Xerof]

Disc: Holding TON (at a huge discount to Moose) :D
Disc: Holding AVB (at a huge discount to Moose) :D

Haha, so even more reason for Moosie roasting - I know it is in good spirit

[robbo24]

has anyone ask moosie lately if he is a trader or long term holder....me thinks he gets confused.
They call it the headless chook trade:eek2:

I began recording Moosie Trader Strategy Updates on WhatsApp voice chat, to note every time he changed his mind on something.

Day before the TON announcement he swore black and blue not to buy TON :D

He is every step of the cycle in one: http://www.mackensen.com/images/emotion2.jpg

[psychic]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/junior-explorer-avanco-to-defy-funding-freeze/story-e6frg9df-1227314280216

[psychic]

Here it is.. (well, the goss anyway)

Junior explorer Avanco Resources is poised to defy the funding freeze that has crippled the smaller end of the resources sector, moving to lock in about $80 million of fresh capital to support the development of its Antas copper mine in Brazil.

It is understood Avanco will announce this week that it has secured a $20m placement to parties including private equity group Greenstone Resources as well as a $15m royalty transaction with Blackrock. It will also look to raise another $45m or so through an entitlement rights issue.

The involvement of private equity and the royalty deal with Blackrock reflect the alternative funding avenues being pursued by small resources companies given the limited prospects of securing money through traditional debt and equity markets. The raising will replace a plan to secure $58m in debt funding from Brazilian bank Banco Votorantim. It’s believed the change was driven by Avanco’s desire to start construction shortly, given the looming dry season will provide a narrow window to build the mine with minimal chance of interference from weather.

It plans to develop its small but high-grade Antas deposit in Brazil into a mine capable of producing about 12,000 tonnes of copper a year, as well as about 7000 ounces a year of gold.

It is understood the placement will be made at a premium to Avanco’s volume-weighted average price over the past month. Its share register already includes commodities giant Glencore (holding a 12.2 per cent), Blackrock World Mining Fund (11.4 per cent) and Appian Natural Resources Fund (11.2 per cent).

[robbo24]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/junior-explorer-avanco-to-defy-funding-freeze/story-e6frg9df-1227314280216

Reminds me of that fateful day last September when Moosie told me that FUNDING IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER, BIG BOYS A-COMIN!!!

[psychic]

Debt free and mining....

[robbo24]

does this mean a start to mining with no off take agreement.........that's a bit risky

I think in terms of the amount of information available, a placement to Moosie's "Big Boys" at a premium to the VWAP and offer to remaining shareholders shouldn't be too bad. My understanding is that any dilution will come from shareholders not taking up their rights.

It seems to me that dilution will be off-set by future off-take agreements (which can now probably be worked on properly), construction and drilling results - not to mention de-risking - should be good for the company.

Guess we'll see, won't we! :D

[Xerof]

A short period of teeth-gnashing, before the significance of what is now able to be done sinks in. Support from large insto's, a rights issue for us (to minimise dilution for a change), and a series of further announcements to come (off-take agreement being one of them Snapiti)

I'm comfortably numb before seeing the full detail

[Xerof]

I think the delayed AGM in order to deal with related parties issues, will cover
the changed royalty deal with BR, the issue of >10% equity, but most significantly, an off-take agreement with Glencore.

I also think the off-take agreement has been held up by the Banks indecision on financing.

Looks to me like the major shareholders have said F you Brazilian banks, lets just get on with it, we will do this ourselves. The premium over VWAP will be a sign of confidence, but immaterial in the longer run.

Yes, I agree snap - 8.0 - 8.5 cents would be my pick

All IMO

[psychic]

2 for 7 at 8 cents
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01617933

[Xerof]

There is no revised Royalty Agreement - it's the same one - see note 2 of announcement.

And given we are no longer tied to any Bank conditions of lending, why do they need an Off-take agreement? - copper is a highly liquid commodity, within highly organised physical markets

[robbo24]

lol....I think TAP thought the same thing about the oil markets when it choose to spot sell.
The rest is history.
A binding off take agreement most certainly would take some risk off the table....don't you think.
Seems management are hell bent on starting mining....good for their ego no doubt.

On 16 May 2014 AVB announced it had completed a $23m placement at 7.5 cents (https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3614913). This was roughly a 10% premium over VWAP.

The chart (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=au%3Aavb&x=27&y=12&time=100&startdate=5%2F16%2F2014&enddate=8%2F1%2F2014&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=4&maval=10%2C30%2C50&uf=8&lf=8&lf2=32&lf3=1024&type=4&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15) shows on that day, the share price hit a bottom of 7 cents and a top at 7.3. Seemingly close at 7.2.

From that day forth the share price went steadily upwards.

I wonder if it will happen again? :D

[psychic]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150713/pdf/42zs0t0ccvzhrj.pdf

PB upgrade . Sweet

[slimwin]

I think we need ore to be coming out of the ground before this one moves much.

[robbo24]

Here's a very interesting article about AVB, copper, Brazil and China: http://www.mining-journal.com/world/centralsouth-america/onwards-and-upwards-for-brazil/


There is a similar, yet slightly larger, story going on in Para state with fellow-Australian listed developer Avanco Resources.


Having acquired Carajás’ second largest land tenement (second only to Vale), the copper-focused company has successfully drafted a mine plan at its Antas North project and funded the $60 million build.
This financing was backed by the likes of BlackRock, Appian Natural Resources and Greenstone Resources, pedigree institutions on the lookout for high returns.


Avanco plans to produce 11-12,000t/y of copper concentrate and 7,000oz/y of gold from the mine, with first concentrate planned for March. It also hosts a 6 million tonne resource at an impressive 2.45% copper grade.


As Avanco’s land holding would indicate, though, the company could be a lot bigger in the future.


This future potential includes the Pedra Branca underground copper project, which the company acquired from Xstrata back in February 2012. It has already shown off high copper and gold grades from several rounds of drilling with an inferred resource of 560,000t of copper, 500,000oz of gold and 1.04 million ounces of silver being defined.


An updated and upgraded resource was likely to come out shorty, according to managing director Tony Polglase. Then, a scoping study could follow in the December quarter, which could consider a number of options to pursue, he said.


“By the end of the year we would then be in a position to tell the shareholders we have settled on one mining plan and we will continue spending money on it. That will then be fully documented in a prefeasibility study by the end of March,” he told Mining Journal.


The publication of such a study could bring about “warp speed change” to the company’s market valuation, according to Polglase, suggesting Pedra Branca could be close to three times the size of Antas North.
And there was even more potential for the company beyond this, which it could capitalise on with cash flow from Antas North when it comes into production, Polglase said.


“We’re sitting in the best copper region of Brazil and there is a chance that with time we will find a very large copper deposit ourselves,” he said.


The company has already discovered mineralisation at Nova Esperança, west of Pedra Branca, an extension to the east of Pedra Branca East (extension) and the Sucurui and Sao Jorge prospects.



Note: this is pre-PB upgrade. The above is a small part of the article.

[psychic]

"warp speed change” to the company’s market valuation I could live with :)
Very surprised that update yesterday didn't do it. Patience eh....

[robbo24]

"warp speed change” to the company’s market valuation I could live with :)
Very surprised that update yesterday didn't do it. Patience eh....

I think there's probably more to do with the copper mining scene in total, rather than just AVB, at this point.

As you can see by comparing copper mining ETF and AVB, they line up relatively closely (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=copx&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=7%2F13%2F2015&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=au%3Aavb&comp=au%3Aavb&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=32&lf2=2&lf3=256&type=4&style=320&size=4&x=63&y=9&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15).

[Aotea]

AVB is one of my biggest holdings and have topped up a number of times with 17.5 the highest. Am sitting pretty even now, and expect AVB to be a strong performer in the mid-longer term. For the patient holders, this one will be a winner no doubt. GLH

[cammo]

http://www.avancoresources.com/content/latest-video/

the little lego men have done a lot of work there.....compare to last video! These guys are GAFMO big time!

[hillbillybob]

Leaps and bounds with this mine build. Copper price is doing AVB's s/p no favs but. If/ when that turns around it's game on. Low to mid 5c has to be a great buy now, this will be off the ground and running within 5/6 months. Should see a rapid rerate. S/p has always bounced hard off this level.

[cammo]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20151216/pdf/433v3b8mz5fgpt.pdf

Director with 1.2mill shares, and 10million options is buying 200000 on market today.
What does that say :)

[slimwin]

He had a spare 10k?

[cammo]

First copper now being produced. Plant expected to be at production capacity end of march. Supply contracts being negotiated. Looking good!

[Aotea]

its been a long haul with a lot of negative sentiment, so very good to see things turn for AVB..there is plenty of upside in the longer term on this one.

[cammo]

http://www.avancoresources.com/content/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/ResearchNoteProactiveInvestors09Mar16.pdf

http://www.avancoresources.com/content/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AppointmentOfGeneralManagerAtAntasCopperMine09Mar1 6.pdf

GM of mine running appointed + news starting to fly. Come on you good thing....

[cammo]

Earlier than expected and total spend under budget. These guys are over delivering. Cmon sign up a good rate for the contracts and start filling containers!

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160315/pdf/435v6s8pdm397k.pdf

[Xerof]

Back in 2014-2015 Xerof, hillbillybob, BFG (banned), Aotea and robbo24 (banned) held endless discussion on AVB. :eek2: :eek2: :eek2:

Still holding Xerof? See you have in ASX picks. Seems to finally be on the move.
Certainly am, I tripled my holdings at 5.6/ 5.7 late last year, and won't be selling. Hillbillybob still holds (and has been accumulating too) Robbo has an interest still, I assume, as he posts on HC thread. Don't know if moose or aotea still hold, although moose posted on HC thread a short time ago.

It has been a long haul, with everything going against it, but management have carried on through like Diana and the golden apples, to be beautifully placed for the new bull cycle for copper

are you holding?

[Aotea]

Am still holding and averaged down from my first buy in at 17c. Am back in the black and enjoying the resurgence.
Plenty of upside!

[cammo]

http://www.avancoresources.com/content/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/PressClippingMiningDotComTheWorldsTop10HighestGrad eCopperMines20Feb17.pdf

number 5.....

[Xerof]

bit of FOMO today. still dirt cheap.

[cammo]

Bit annoying really. Had sat in this cos I figured it would provide me a better return than 121% in four years.
Could we see another offer ? Or a no vote ?

[Aotea]

am going to wait and see if another comes...we have six weeks and that may be interesting.

am up 100% so its not all doom and gloom

[Xerof]

yeah, it's low ball offer alright. But take your time to accept - plenty happening behind the bike sheds. I 'understand' there is a private blocking stake >10% already, then there's Greenstone and Glencore, who would clearly have been presented with the opportunity to give their support for the bid before it was announced, and haven't so far.
ps, there is no voting, you either accept or not, until they get to 90% (if ever) then they can oblige you to conform to their robbery.

[Xerof]

Well, tonight marks the end of the road for AVB. The last Fund has folded, and they will announce at least 92% acceptances tomorrow morning I guess. No-one else had time, or access to the data room, to make a counterbid in the end - it was a very carefully planned takeover by OZL, kudos to their team.

For those who held out to the bitter end, 18 cents was readily available. For me thats a 2.5 bagger on a decent amount of coin. Bitterly disappointed in getting taken out of this investment early, but thats life, and I will continue the journey with some OZL shares, to benefit from the assets AVB has handed over to them.

I'll turn out the AVB lights shall I?

[shasta]

With SFR snaring the high grade Monty project off 30% JV partner TLM, not much choice in the copper developers left. RXM, HAV, HCH, CZI among the few.

Bought into HCH as under the radar having projects in the US and CZI is bit further behind them, not to mention tied up with OZL.

[Aotea]

I bought in years ago at 17c, and averaged down over time.
Sold out at 17c, so over doubled my investment.
Should have been more though.....so much promise