KMD - Kathmandu

[JayRiggs]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12212466
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12213674

I've sold some of my KMD today as I don't fully feel comfortable going into tomorrow's result. Unfortunately I was a victim of the recent Kathmandu website hack where credit card details were stolen from anyone who bought on their website between 8th Jan - 12th Feb 2019. I think this incident could potentially impact on Kathmandu's reputation and profits in the short term.
As a loyal Kathmandu customer, I feel bloody let down and my trust in the company has been dented.

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12212466
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12213674

I've sold some of my KMD today as I don't fully feel comfortable going into tomorrow's result. Unfortunately I was a victim of the recent Kathmandu website hack where credit card details were stolen from anyone who bought on their website between 8th Jan - 12th Feb 2019. I think this incident could potentially impact on Kathmandu's reputation and profits in the short term.
As a loyal Kathmandu customer, I feel bloody let down and my trust in the company has been dented.

Pretty bad eh

Guy in that article is in IT and he not impressed with Kathmandu’s third party IT security people

[winner69]

...
Yeah...NAH...Xavier should have known to be a LOT more conservative with his choice of words, (played far to loosely with the term "strong growth") at the annual meeting update and I reckon he needs a bit more "seasoning" to be a really good CEO..


You taught him a lesson with that advice beagle ...Xavier on the radio said he wouldn't make any comment on how the full year is panning out


In saying that he did seem to suggest that NZ is a bit of struggle at the moment amongst the hmm and ahhs

[Beagle]

Yep beagle Kathmandu almost a non-event in NZ .....flat sales last 4 years and declining profits. This is in spite of a few more stores and this much touted increase in online sales.

Kathmandu sell twice as much (plus a bit) in Aussie than they do in NZ. All the recent profit growth has come from Australia.

An investment in Kathmandu is essentially an investment in Australia retail ....that’s where Kathmandu fortunes lie and the recent announcement said that wasn’t going too well at the moment.

Yes a lot more pensive but I don't think he was listening to my barking but you hit the nail directly on the head with this comment mate. N.Z. retail a bit softer in yesterday's result announcement. I think the mountain warehouse with their much cheaper but still very good quality gear will continue to nibble around the edges of Kathmandu's lunch.

[noodles]

The NZSA is hosting CEO Xavier Simonet in Auckland tomorrow night. Details here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10844-NZSA-Auckland-Meetings-and-Events&p=752924&viewfull=1#post752924

[winner69]

KMD been in a steady downtrend since mid last year

Today’s close of 218 is 37% off its high ....ouch

Heading to sub 200 .....maybe even 170 looking at the chart

Another stock whose chart looks like a mountain ...good picture if it levels at around 170

Price action suggests not all ok in Kathmandu land.

[JayRiggs]

I lost alot of confidence in Kathmandu after the website hack in mid March. A few hundred dollars was taken out of my credit card after I bought stuff off their website during the hacking window. Thanks to the incompetence of their security team, I had to waste time and go through the trouble of getting the fraudulent transactions reversed at my bank.
Thankfully I was able to get a full refund, but some other affected customers were not as fortunate and couldn't get refunded:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12213674

In my opinion, Kathmandu need to take responsibility and assist affected customers get their money back, because it's all Kathmandu's fault.
When customers go onto the Kathmandu website and enter their private information to buy stuff, they are putting their trust into Kathmandu to keep that data safe. Now that trust has been broken for many customers, including myself.

Makes me think twice about buying off the Kathmandu website again and just buying stuff online in general.

[winner69]

I lost alot of confidence in Kathmandu after the website hack in mid March. A few hundred dollars was taken out of my credit card after I bought stuff off their website during the hacking window. Thanks to the incompetence of their security team, I had to waste time and go through the trouble of getting the fraudulent transactions reversed at my bank.
Thankfully I was able to get a full refund, but some other affected customers were not as fortunate and couldn't get refunded:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12213674

In my opinion, Kathmandu need to take responsibility and assist affected customers get their money back, because it's all Kathmandu's fault.
When customers go onto the Kathmandu website and enter their private information to buy stuff, they are putting their trust into Kathmandu to keep that data safe. Now that trust has been broken for many customers, including myself.

Makes me think twice about buying off the Kathmandu website again and just buying stuff online in general.

They gave me $20 as a birthday present the other day

Used it to buy stuff on line ......hope i don’t get scammed now ...you got me worried.

Have to say pretty slick service .....stuffed arrived by lunch time the following day.

[Beagle]

KMD been in a steady downtrend since mid last year

Today’s close of 218 is 37% off its high ....ouch

Heading to sub 200 .....maybe even 170 looking at the chart

Another stock whose chart looks like a mountain ...good picture if it levels at around 170

Price action suggests not all ok in Kathmandu land.

Ouch, TA looks dreadful doesn't it ! Had my info hacked from SKC's website, thankfully not credit card info. Eating at Fortuna Restaurant is bad for you in more ways than one lol.
No apology from SKC or even a discount off a meal.

[winner69]

Yep the chart looks awful

Market telling us something ....sentiment gone really sour

But then again some might say that seeing 37% offits highs it must be cheap as and a screaming buy

[Beagle]

Once bitten twice shy as far as I'm concerned. Fancy Kathmandu snow jackets are definitely not a consumer staple :)

[Patient Panda]

Getting very close to the perfect opportunity for Briscoes to finally fulfil its Kathmandu wishlist.

[winner69]

The NZSA is hosting CEO Xavier Simonet in Auckland tomorrow night. Details here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10844-NZSA-Auckland-Meetings-and-Events&p=752924&viewfull=1#post752924

Did Xavier not convince attendees KMD a great investment ....share been weak since

[Ggcc]

What is happening to this share price?? I looked seriously looked into investing 3 months ago, just to diversify a little. Glad I have not, but it is starting to look as a buy. Please explain why I should not buy some..........

[Ggcc]

What is happening to this share price?? I looked seriously looked into investing 3 months ago, just to diversify a little. Glad I have not, but it is starting to look as a buy. Please explain why I should not buy some..........
Too late it was best to invest the day before yesterday

[winner69]

Seems to be a piece of the jigsaw missing

Further to the recent announcement by the company?

Did they do a cap raise? Big shareholder selling out? Bought something big?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KMD/341916/308898.pdf

[winner69]

Ah ...acquiring Rip Curl

That’s a biggie

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KMD/341920/308903.pdf

[trader_jackson]

Ah ...acquiring Rip Curl

That’s a biggie

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KMD/341920/308903.pdf

That is bigly... thoughts people?

[ziptie]

Didn’t know Rip Curl was still a thing. Diversifying in to Surf Wear?

[percy]

Outdoor equipment,footwear,and now surfing gear.
Be interesting to see whether diversification works for them.
Three very different products.

[silverblizzard888]

Its not a bad acquisition esepcially for diversifying the company and aiming for a global position for the long term.
The brand itself is a ebstablish but slow growing one, so the acquisition is really about utilising debt and trying to sell Kathmandu products on a global stage using the channels Ripcurl has already established.

Number wise it adds:
$169 million in new equity, $231 million in new debt ($400 million nzd total).
$52 million in ebitda added.

The timeline of Ripcurl is what interests me, showing a truly global reach that Kathmandu wants:
1990 - Expanded its licensee base in theUS, France and Argentina
1997 -Acquired a wetsuitmanufacturing facility inThailand
2000- Established a jointventure with a Brazilianlicensee, acquiring themsoon after
2005 - Acquired full Indonesianoperation from the company’slong term licensees
2011 - Acquired Ozmosis andWaves surf retail chains
2015 - EstablishedJapanese subsidiary

[LAC]

Interesting, at least now they will have something to sell in Summer:)

[Beagle]

Its not a bad acquisition esepcially for diversifying the company and aiming for a global position for the long term.
The brand itself is a ebstablish but slow growing one, so the acquisition is really about utilising debt and trying to sell Kathmandu products on a global stage using the channels Ripcurl has already established.

Number wise it adds:
$169 million in new equity, $231 million in new debt ($400 million nzd total).
$52 million in ebitda added.

The timeline of Ripcurl is what interests me, showing a truly global reach that Kathmandu wants:
1990 - Expanded its licensee base in theUS, France and Argentina
1997 -Acquired a wetsuitmanufacturing facility inThailand
2000- Established a jointventure with a Brazilianlicensee, acquiring themsoon after
2005 - Acquired full Indonesianoperation from the company’slong term licensees
2011 - Acquired Ozmosis andWaves surf retail chains
2015 - EstablishedJapanese subsidiary

Good post. Wider distribution of Kathmandu and Oboz products appears to be where the real juice is with this deal but that's a lot of debt they're taking on.

[bull....]

three great surf brands rip curl , billabong and quicksilver. 2 went bust in the last few yrs ... says it all

https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/what-happened-to-australias-great-surf-brands-20150910-gjjctb.html

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/63f04437/kathmandu-to-buy-rip-curl-for-368m-to-create-billion-dollar-retailer.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Kathmandu%20to%20buy%20Rip%20Curl%20f or%20368m%20to%20create%20billion%20dollar%20retai ler&utm_content=Kathmandu%20to%20buy%20Rip%20Curl%20fo r%20368m%20to%20create%20billion%20dollar%20retail er+CID_007a2a764330b7b1d0f314911f2679dd&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle63f04437kathma ndu-to-buy-rip-curl-for-368m-to-create-billion-dollar-retailerhtml

[Sideshow Bob]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/63f04437/kathmandu-to-buy-rip-curl-for-368m-to-create-billion-dollar-retailer.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Kathmandu%20to%20buy%20Rip%20Curl%20f or%20368m%20to%20create%20billion%20dollar%20retai ler&utm_content=Kathmandu%20to%20buy%20Rip%20Curl%20fo r%20368m%20to%20create%20billion%20dollar%20retail er+CID_007a2a764330b7b1d0f314911f2679dd&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle63f04437kathma ndu-to-buy-rip-curl-for-368m-to-create-billion-dollar-retailerhtml

I see will run as separate entities. Was wondering what they would do as Kathmandu and Rip Curl are incompatible in terms of branding.

[winner69]

I assume Briscoes will participate in cap raise

Who would ever of thought of Rod / Briscoes owning about 20% of a surfing gear company ...even though some attachment to Rebel Sport

But Rod is an Aussie after all so might have some affinity

[winner69]

The strong initial enthusiasm this morning for Kathmandu’s big bet seems to be waning a bit after lunch

[winner69]

About $1.2m for Xavier

Suppose deserves every penny of it

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KMD/346066/314074.pdf

[BlackPeter]

I know - the sky is falling in and all these things, but still nice to do some routine tasks. One can't just buy BBOZ all the day, can you? In my quest to assess the quality of analyst forecasts I look today into KMD.

In February 2019 the KMD share price peaked at $2.54. At that stage the combined mental power of 3 share market analysts forecasted that over the 12 months to February 2020 the KMD shareprice will rise to $2.99 (consensus), i.e. they predicted a 18% share price appreciation.

KMD actually did rise up to $3.60 (I know, February seems now to be so long ago :) ), i.e. it's share price did rise by 42% instead of by the predicted 18%. According to the rules this is a FAIL (of the forecast :) ).

Looking into the consensus buy recommendation - it was in February 2019 a straight "OUTPERFORM"(7.5/10) - i.e. analysts said that the share will outperform the NZX. NZX went up by 21% and KMD went up by 42%, i.e. the analysts have been right in this regard, this is a clear "PASS"

I am doing this exercise as well with other NZX listed stocks - the overview is here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11721-How-good-are-the-forecasts-of-stockmarket-analysts

15 stocks checked so far (checking for each consensus and buy recommendation);
Consensus shareprice forecasts correct: 2/15; analyst hitrate: 13.3%
Consensus recommendation vs NZX50 correct: 5/15; analyst hitrate: 33.3%

[Mr Slothbear]

The more I see the shareprice get hammered and the P/E contracting the mote I’m expecting Rod Duke to swoop in with a great takeover

[winner69]

The more I see the shareprice get hammered and the P/E contracting the mote I’m expecting Rod Duke to swoop in with a great takeover

Market didn’t like today’s announcement and share price continues to tumble

Jeez at 144 it’s nearly 60% down from a couple of months ago.

That’s quite a lot.

[Grimy]

"There has been a recent significant reduction in footfall in Australian and New Zealand stores."
Footfall? This is the type of thing that really annoys me. Foot traffic used to be bad enough. I want to be known as a customer-not just a pair of feet-clumping about the shop.
Last week when I visited a Kathmandu store I must admit there wasn't much footfalling going on.....
It was a Monday though.
Some good bargains too.

[winner69]

"There has been a recent significant reduction in footfall in Australian and New Zealand stores."
Footfall? This is the type of thing that really annoys me. Foot traffic used to be bad enough. I want to be known as a customer-not just a pair of feet-clumping about the shop.
Last week when I visited a Kathmandu store I must admit there wasn't much footfalling going on.....
It was a Monday though.
Some good bargains too.

Xavier loves buzz words ...even though it’s a recognised term in retail ....awful but somebody invented it

Remember when ‘eye balls’ was the big thing in the dot com days.

[Grimy]

I also hate being a punter or a bum on seat (as opposed to a bum on a seat...…).

[Mr Slothbear]

Market didn’t like today’s announcement and share price continues to tumble

Jeez at 144 it’s nearly 60% down from a couple of months ago.

That’s quite a lot.

perfect opportunity for duke.

would love to see him roll up his sleeves and get to work on Kathmandu. Xavier a careerist, doesn’t have an owner mentality and falls prey to institutional imperative.

[IAK]

Kathmandu cutting costs. Smiths City in trading halt and in talks with ASB.

As expected, retail feeling the pains.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/120630538/retailer-smiths-city-in-trading-halt-in-talks-with-asb (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/120630538/retailer-smiths-city-in-trading-halt-in-talks-with-asb)

[kiwidollabill]

Considering their product portfolio (aligned with travel & adventure) IMHO Kathmandu is in a poorer position than other retail to dig themselves back out of this.

[mikeybycrikey]

Considering their product portfolio (aligned with travel & adventure) IMHO Kathmandu is in a poorer position than other retail to dig themselves back out of this.

I was thinking the opposite. With the borders shut for months, the only thing that kiwis will be able to do is camping and tramping. But certainly a very risky time for them, especially with having just bought Rip Curl.

[Sideshow Bob]

I was thinking the opposite. With the borders shut for months, the only thing that kiwis will be able to do is camping and tramping. But certainly a very risky time for them, especially with having just bought Rip Curl.

Dollar has climbed up a little from its low's but won't be helping them either. China starting to get back on line with factories/production - but not much good if stores are closed and can't ship online orders.....

[flyer]

in a Trading halt

[winner69]

in a Trading halt

Last weeks announcement was pretty dismal

This one must be some good news

Share price up early ...depth was +ve

[sb9]

Last weeks announcement was pretty dismal

This one must be some good news

Guess they'll allowed be to some online sales as per essential services along line of WHS and Smiths City. Briscoes might be allowed soon as well due to their winter stock lines.

[IAK]

Here it comes ....Kathmandu to raise $207m. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/120726884/kathmandu-to-raise-207-million-to-offset-coronavirus-hit

[ratkin]

50 Cents they giving it away, surely they could have got away with 70c

[Balance]

50 Cents they giving it away, surely they cold have got away with 70c

First of the many capital raising to come for companies requiring balance sheet fortification.

First come, best dressed.

[whatsup]

50 Cents they giving it away, surely they cold have got away with 70c

Sad so very sad , still a falling knife even at this price, biggest problem is the Kathmandu model may not now work due to the now dearth of young travellers, locals will still buy but..... .

[Filthy]

50c is a fire sale. glad im not in this one. I wonder what impact this might have on BGPs stake....

[kiwidollabill]

Sad so very sad , still a falling knife even at this price, biggest problem is the Kathmandu model may not now work due to the now dearth of young travellers, locals will still buy buy..... .

How many locals buy at full retail...? Everyone knows to wait for the 40% sales...

[winner69]

First of the many capital raising to come for companies requiring balance sheet fortification.

First come, best dressed.

Yep Balance ...good move getting in first

In a months time punters might be too shell shocked to front up

[Balance]

How many locals buy at full retail...? Everyone knows to wait for the 40% sales...

Likewise, Briscoes, Noel Leeming, Harvey Norman etc etc

It’s a way of life in NZ.

[Balance]

Yep Balance ...good move getting in first

In a months time punters might be too shell shocked to front up

Keep the powder dry and wait for the inevitable fire-sale of shares via the capital raisings.

[dobby41]

50 Cents they giving it away, surely they could have got away with 70c

I expect that they have already talked to the institutions and that is all they'd pay.

[Balance]

I expect that they have already talked to the institutions and that is all they'd pay.

Fully underwritten with a $30m placement to sweeten the deal for the institutions.

[JeremyALD]

Fully underwritten with a $30m placement to sweeten the deal for the institutions.

Is there a SPP for retail shareholders?

[Balance]

Is there a SPP for retail shareholders?

Better than a SPP - a 1 for 2 pro-rata rights issue for all shareholders.

Unless a shareholder does not have the funds to participate, then there’s no significant dilution for existing holders.

[Cadalac123]

50c for long term hold is ridiculously good value provided they don’t fold which I don’t see them doing. They must be pretty desperate though . Retail in a tough spot right now
Disc not a holder

[Cyclical]

Better than a SPP - a 1 for 2 pro-rata rights issue for all shareholders.

Unless a shareholder does not have the funds to participate, then there’s no significant dilution for existing holders.

So going off the pre-halt price of 112, and all things being equal (not that they will be), would a basic fair value calculation be: (2 x 112 + 50)/3 ?

[macduffy]

Better than a SPP - a 1 for 2 pro-rata rights issue for all shareholders.

Unless a shareholder does not have the funds to participate, then there’s no significant dilution for existing holders.

I think the issue is 1.2 shares for 1, not 1 for 2.

[silverblizzard888]

I think the issue is 1.2 shares for 1, not 1 for 2.

Yes their seems to be some confusion by some posters, it is indeed 1.2 shares for every 1 share held. Massive dilute, be prepared for a bit of a sell off.

[blackcap]

Yes their seems to be some confusion by some posters, it is indeed 1.2 shares for every 1 share held. Massive dilute, be prepared for a bit of a sell off.

So that would make the TP, (112+1.2*50)/2.2 which equals 78.2 cents. Have not checked to see if this math is correct though.

[silverblizzard888]

So that would make the TP, (112+1.2*50)/2.2 which equals 78.2 cents. Have not checked to see if this math is correct though.

Existing shares = 295,073,217

New shares to be offered = 354,087,860 + $30 million in under writing (= 414 million stated in the documents )

totaling 709,152,077 shares

Closing market value = $330 million + $207 million = Market value of $537 million or 75.7 cents a share


*your equation missed out the under writing cost

[Balance]

Yes their seems to be some confusion by some posters, it is indeed 1.2 shares for every 1 share held. Massive dilute, be prepared for a bit of a sell off.


I think the issue is 1.2 shares for 1, not 1 for 2.

macduff and you are right, of course!

Man alive - that makes it almost on par with the infamous Fletcher Forests capital raising all those years ago. :eek2:

[blackcap]

Existing shares = 295,073,217

New shares to be offered = 354,087,860 + $30 million in under writing (= 414 million stated in the documents )

totaling 709,152,077 shares

Closing market value = $330 million + $177 million = Market value of $507 million or 71.5 cents a share


*your equation missed out the under writing cost

I was only working on SP. Your equation does not add the $30m to the market value. So mkt value of $537m or 75.7 cents per share.

But its all theoretical anyway. No way the SP stays in the 70's once the 60m shares issued at .50 come onto the market.

[winner69]

Existing shares = 295,073,217

New shares to be offered = 354,087,860 + $30 million in under writing (= 414 million stated in the documents )

totaling 709,152,077 shares

Closing market value = $330 million + $177 million = Market value of $507 million or 71.5 cents a share


*your equation missed out the under writing cost

Last line ...what about the $30m

[silverblizzard888]

I was only working on SP. Your equation does not add the $30m to the market value. So mkt value of $537m or 75.7 cents per share.

But its all theoretical anyway. No way the SP stays in the 70's once the 60m shares issued at .50 come onto the market.

Opps wrote that a bit too quick, yup better add in that extra $30 million


Closing market value = $330 million + $207 million = Market value of $537 million or 75.7 cents a share

[winner69]

Share price was $3.64 not that long ago.

Hype from growth by acquisitions quickly dissipates when the tide turns ...bubble bursts

[Balance]

Share price was $3.64 not that long ago.

Hype from growth by acquisitions quickly dissipates when the tide turns ...bubble bursts

The $1.80 offered by Rod Duke looks good now too!

Fact that he has not moved to do another takeover speaks volume of how he sees things?

[winner69]

The $1.80 offered by Rod Duke looks good now too!

Fact that he has not moved to do another takeover speaks volume of how he sees things?

I thought at the time the $1.60 was a pretty generous off.

Been outrageously ever since.

Wonder if Rod will fork up this time?

[sb9]

I thought at the time the $1.60 was a pretty generous off.

Been outrageously ever since.

Wonder if Rod will fork up this time?

Rod said thanks but no thanks for the offer.

[winner69]

Rod said thanks but no thanks for the offer.

Rod probably needs that $30m elsewhere

He’ll have to live with the dilution eh ...19% becomes a lot less.

[silverblizzard888]

Rod's too much of a prudent business man to risk what he has for more.

Briscoes has $67 million cash on the balance sheet, with 18.9% shareholding even for this raise Briscoes would have to put in $33 million to maintain their currently holding, never mind a takeover.

[Balance]

Rod's too much of a prudent business man to risk what he has for more.

Briscoes has $67 million cash on the balance sheet, with 18.9% shareholding even for this raise Briscoes would have to put in $33 million to maintain their currently holding, never mind a takeover.

His was a script offer from memory? So no cash will be used.

[bottomfeeder]

SP will track closer to the issue price. That is the most common way issues go from my experience.

[Mr Slothbear]

Rod said thanks but no thanks for the offer.


don’t think he was impressed at all with rip curl purchase

[Beagle]

Rod's too much of a prudent business man to risk what he has for more.

Briscoes has $67 million cash on the balance sheet, with 18.9% shareholding even for this raise Briscoes would have to put in $33 million to maintain their currently holding, never mind a takeover.

He would have been approached under the $30m placement at 50 cents for sure so would have had ample time to carefully consider this capital raise already. Arguably the smartest man in retail in N.Z. That he has declined to participate at just 50 cents gives all shareholders of KMD and other retail companies a valuable insight into the seriousness of challenges he foresees ahead. Hope the underwriters have deep pockets.

[Balance]

He would have been approached under the $30m placement at 50 cents for sure so would have had ample time to carefully consider this capital raise already. Arguably the smartest man in retail in N.Z. That he has declined to participate at just 50 cents gives all shareholders of KMD and other retail companies a valuable insight into the seriousness of challenges he foresees ahead. Hope the underwriters have deep pockets.

Rather telling indeed - unless he wants the sp to really tank during and post the capital raise and then, make his move then?

Not taking up his 'entitlement' means the underwriters are already in the gun for around $35m of the $177m rights issue. :eek2:

Looks like sp could drop to 51c - 53c with that kind of overhang!

[BlackPeter]

Rather telling indeed - unless he wants the sp to really tank during and post the capital raise and then, make his move then?

Not taking up his 'entitlement' means the underwriters are already in the gun for around $35m of the $177m rights issue. :eek2:

Looks like sp could drop to 51c - 53c with that kind of overhang!

Wouldn't you expect SP to drop after the event below CR-price? It often does unless the company is financially very strong.

45 cents - here we come ;):

[Balance]

Wouldn't you expect SP to drop after the event below CR-price? It often does unless the company is financially very strong.

45 cents - here we come ;):

Net debt after capital raise will drop to around $80m vs SHF of $780m - so should be okay.

Only problem is that bulk of balance sheet consists of $635m intangibles! :eek2:

No question in my mind that this is a bank forced capital raise.

Thank goodness KMD has got underwriting in place.

We do not want another Pumpkin Patch - NZ needs our home grown brands.

[winner69]

Net debt after capital raise will drop to around $80m vs SHF of $780m - so should be okay.

Only problem is that bulk of balance sheet consists of $635m intangibles! :eek2:

No question in my mind that this is a bank forced capital raise.

Thank goodness KMD has got underwriting in place.

We do not want another Pumpkin Patch - NZ needs our home grown brands.

The word ‘covenant’ was mentioned a few times eh ....that’s the signal

[Ecks]

The word ‘covenant’ was mentioned a few times eh ....that’s the signal

Get your popcorn out and enjoy the show, volatility, halting, CR, historic announcements and bailouts, today's market has it all!

[winner69]

At least shareholders who want to make a real killing Can also apply for some of Rod’s shares

[winner69]

Captain Kirk’s biggest challenge since the 87 Rugby World Cup

Hasn’t always tasted success though ...a bakery he was involved in went bust

He made a few bob out of Bailador Tech though.

Good guy though

.

[winner69]

At least they being up front with those who are going to put heaps in


» In addition, the Group’s trading performance once stores reopen may be worse than anticipated, whether due to demand being slower to return than anticipated, margins being reduced due to the activity of competitors or the need for greater discounting than usual to attract customers, cost reductions having a negative impact on the Group’s ability to recommence operations quickly and effectively or other unforeseen factors. If these factors arise, they may have a material adverse effect on the Group’s financial position and performance

[kiwidollabill]

Been thinking about these guys more recently....

My general feeling has gone from somewhat negative to full on bear for a few reasons... Most of this is centered around Kathmandu rather than RipCurl and Obaz as I know more about it and from an earnings perspective is the cash generator of the bunch.

As posted above, Kathmandu is really the business they are by identifying a thin niche within the consumer goods market. They arent the best 'rag trader', holding ~17 weeks of inventory (IMHO HLG is good performer on global standards) but they knew who their customer was and effectively sold into that market. What is really probamatic is that their product portfolio from a purchasing perspective is quite 'activity related' i.e. if you need to buy everyday items you dont necessarily think of Kathmandu (and their marketing isnt aligned this way), but if you are travelling, or spending time in the outdoors then thats their niche. From a $ perspective product is 'upper mid' and so in a reduced economy that same niche of consumers will look to trade down within the category. The macro social/consumer effects over the next 2 years are going to seriously work against them, I know of other large brands which are re-configuring focus of their porfolio to be on the right side of these changes. Likewise their online sales arent amazing (though growing well rec

Also, I dont think (and somewhat know from discussions I've had with senior staff through my work) that they dont have near the brand equity around ethical/sustainability to keep those concisous consumers in a downturn (they list ~600M of intangibles on their balance sheet(. Moreover, from some social media posts I've seen (and joining all of the dots) they are withholding payment to local NZ suppliers of theirs....

IMHO, unless they do some serious turning of the ship they are going to be in some serious trouble. Their high levels of inventory holding (due to seasonal business) will come back to bite them. Has anyone stress tested their numbers? Asuming the raise goes ahead and the cost out initiatives they have outlined, are they able to swallow a -25% best case/ -50% worse case decline in revenue?

Sorry long post of rant

[winner69]

Been thinking about these guys more recently....

My general feeling has gone from somewhat negative to full on bear for a few reasons... Most of this is centered around Kathmandu rather than RipCurl and Obaz as I know more about it and from an earnings perspective is the cash generator of the bunch.

As posted above, Kathmandu is really the business they are by identifying a thin niche within the consumer goods market. They arent the best 'rag trader', holding ~17 weeks of inventory (IMHO HLG is good performer on global standards) but they knew who their customer was and effectively sold into that market. What is really probamatic is that their product portfolio from a purchasing perspective is quite 'activity related' i.e. if you need to buy everyday items you dont necessarily think of Kathmandu (and their marketing isnt aligned this way), but if you are travelling, or spending time in the outdoors then thats their niche. From a $ perspective product is 'upper mid' and so in a reduced economy that same niche of consumers will look to trade down within the category. The macro social/consumer effects over the next 2 years are going to seriously work against them, I know of other large brands which are re-configuring focus of their porfolio to be on the right side of these changes. Likewise their online sales arent amazing (though growing well rec

Also, I dont think (and somewhat know from discussions I've had with senior staff through my work) that they dont have near the brand equity around ethical/sustainability to keep those concisous consumers in a downturn (they list ~600M of intangibles on their balance sheet(. Moreover, from some social media posts I've seen (and joining all of the dots) they are withholding payment to local NZ suppliers of theirs....

IMHO, unless they do some serious turning of the ship they are going to be in some serious trouble. Their high levels of inventory holding (due to seasonal business) will come back to bite them. Has anyone stress tested their numbers? Asuming the raise goes ahead and the cost out initiatives they have outlined, are they able to swallow a -25% best case/ -50% worse case decline in revenue?

Sorry long post of rant

Good post bill

That’s how I’ve felt for a few years....a lot based on the lack of growth in kathmandu brand sales in NZ which was also starting to show in Australia.

Yoy mention intangibles of $634m (acquisition driven) but over $300m in lease liabilities could be the killer

No wonder they noted in the financials they’ll be in breach of bank convenants any day soon.

[whatsup]

IMO once the retail sector opens again - whenever that will be customers will keep their cash very close for the next 8-9 months or until Xmass when there will be a short burst, this is the first time that the cool generation have had any sort of set back and they now believe in what is impossible to happen can happen and they will adjust their thinking and actions to this new paradigm.

IMO the S P will take quite a while to find a sustainable base perhaps until next years final results, if things and not handled carefully Kathmandu could go the way of Pumpkin Patch !! sad very sad imo!

[Lola]

Good post bill

That’s how I’ve felt for a few years....a lot based on the lack of growth in kathmandu brand sales in NZ which was also starting to show in Australia.

Yoy mention intangibles of $634m (acquisition driven) but over $300m in lease liabilities could be the killer

No wonder they noted in the financials they’ll be in breach of bank convenants any day soon.



Anyone know who the unnamed ïnvestment houses are who are underwriting this issue?

[winner69]

Anyone know who the unnamed ïnvestment houses are who are underwriting this issue?


With rod not taking up his lot probably a big shortfall

Could be interesting

[kiwidollabill]

With rod not taking up his lot probably a big shortfall

Could be interesting

If they dont get 150M the banks will get grumpy.

[winner69]

Why hasn't this started trading again. What's the hold up? Placement should have happened overnight.

Maybe it didn’t go as planned

[Lola]

that's what i'm starting to suspect.

The nzx announcement says trading would resume today. However, the asx announcement gives an extension to 3rd of april. The asx announcement also goes on to say "lead managers are subject to confidentiality obligations". So i assume that they are looking at the books today and this placement isn't "in the bag" and is subject to further due diligence.

Interesting times.

yes . All should be well with the chairmans connections coming to the party?

[sb9]

That's what I'm starting to suspect.

The NZX announcement says trading would resume today. However, the ASX announcement gives an extension to 3rd of April. The ASX announcement also goes on to say "Lead Managers are subject to confidentiality obligations". So I assume that they are looking at the books today and this placement isn't "in the bag" and is subject to further due diligence.

Interesting times.

They just put an announcement re placement being done, should start trading soon.

[blackcap]

I see the sharesies suckers are all lining up to buy at 72 cents. Crazy, they have no clue some of them. I see them on FB thinking the SP will go to TERP as if its some magical formula. Unfortunately a lot are going to get some rude awakenings. There were 382 orders at 72 before someone took a lot out just now.

[Cyclical]

Deleted - old news.

[dr_]

According to Sharesies:

The halt will remain in place until the earlier of:


[*=left]An announcement made by Kathmandu Holdings, or
[*=left]Market open on Friday 3 April 2020




trading resumed. Dropped 41c 36.6%

[winner69]

Seems to have received a good positive response from the instos

[Balance]

trading resumed. Dropped 41c 36.6%

Ex-entitlement so drop is actually only 4%.

[Balance]

Seems to have received a good positive response from the instos

Such a heavily discounted issue - be crazy not to take it up.

Why I am surprised Rod Duke did not take up his entitlement and sell the rights value.

[blackcap]

Seems to have received a good positive response from the instos

Yeah I am quite surprised at that. Maybe they think going forward they will be ok and if going concern issues are assuaged its all hunky dory.

[Balance]

Looks good so far.

So the record date for the retail entitlement is tomorrow. So anybody buying today is basically getting shares at 62 cents? Seems a little unfair.

Will be heading down towards 50c, I suspect in any case.

[Beagle]

Hey if people are lapping this up maybe AIR should get in quick and do a similar capital raise...just change it to 4:1 at 50 cents and see how they go ?

[macduffy]

Looks good so far.

So the record date for the retail entitlement is tomorrow. So anybody buying today is basically getting shares at 62 cents? Seems a little unfair.

Record date means on the register. Anyone buying today settles and goes on the register on Monday, ie. trading today is ex issue.

[Entrep]

Record date means on the register. Anyone buying today settles and goes on the register on Monday, ie. trading today is ex issue.

Yep, absolute insanity to be buying any KMD shares at this price today, even in a bull market, which we are not.

[Joshuatree]

Opps wrote that a bit too quick, yup better add in that extra $30 million


Closing market value = $330 million + $207 million = Market value of $537 million or 75.7 cents a share


83c atm , looks like a winner for those that took up at this moment in time.

[winner69]

Wesfarmers might take Kathmandu over in this story

But whatever Macquaries have put Kathmandu on a takeover target list and might attract others ...probably to small for Wesfarmers anyway

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/qantas-could-be-taken-over-by-cashed-up-wesfarmers-macquarie-says-20200402-p54gcb.html

[whatsup]

Wesfarmers might take Kathmandu over in this story

But whatever Macquaries have put Kathmandu on a takeover target list and might attract others ...probably to small for Wesfarmers anyway

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/qantas-could-be-taken-over-by-cashed-up-wesfarmers-macquarie-says-20200402-p54gcb.html


NAH, Rod will buy it from the receivers, just you wait and see, why would he front up for the rights money when he can buy it for a song !

[Joshuatree]

83c atm , looks like a winner for those that took up at this moment in time.

And ive heard in the rush some savvy applicants got less than 30% of what they asked for.

[blackcap]

I have gone short at 91 cents. Lets see how that plays out.

[nztx]

NAH, Rod will buy it from the receivers, just you wait and see, why would he front up for the rights money when he can buy it for a song !

It would probably have be at a real bargain price, given that the minority BGR holding (further diluted now) is looking decidedly expensive

[Ecks]

I see the sharesies suckers are all lining up to buy at 72 cents. Crazy, they have no clue some of them. I see them on FB thinking the SP will go to TERP as if its some magical formula. Unfortunately a lot are going to get some rude awakenings. There were 382 orders at 72 before someone took a lot out just now.
Hey blackcap, where can you see these order #'s? Those Mum and Dad buyers using Sharesies will be keeping the SP up for longer than it should be.

[blackcap]

Hey blackcap, where can you see these order #'s? Those Mum and Dad buyers using Sharesies will be keeping the SP up for longer than it should be.

You see them just after 10AM on the open. Or after coming out of a halt. Sharesies will not place orders pre-open so they all pop up at 10.01AM or thereabouts. But they are gone now. Interesting phenomena though. I went short at 91 cents, took some off the table on Friday at 82 cents and going to hold the rest of the short till about between 50 and 60 cents. (if it gets there)

[Cadalac123]

You see them just after 10AM on the open. Or after coming out of a halt. Sharesies will not place orders pre-open so they all pop up at 10.01AM or thereabouts. But they are gone now. Interesting phenomena though. I went short at 91 cents, took some off the table on Friday at 82 cents and going to hold the rest of the short till about between 50 and 60 cents. (if it gets there)

Are you using CMC markets to short?

[blackcap]

Must be about time to exit the short. I see they are down to 63 cents this morning. That's a pretty quick fall the last few days. But I doubt they will fall over in the medium term. All that extra cash from the rights issue should support the balance sheet for a while.

[blackcap]

Seems legit.

Falling like a knife through butter.. down to 61 now. I am guessing the market thinks a lot of pain going forward for KMD as sales dry up in a post Covid environement?

[Flugenbear]

Falling like a knife through butter.. down to 61 now. I am guessing the market thinks a lot of pain going forward for KMD as sales dry up in a post Covid environement?

I think so....This has the potential to be a deep recession...depression even. KMD sell things that we don't really need. There will always be some who can afford to buy their stuff, but those numbers could drastically reduce.
Basically, no one knows.
That's a problem.

[nztx]

I think so....This has the potential to be a deep recession...depression even. KMD sell things that we don't really need. There will always be some who can afford to buy their stuff, but those numbers could drastically reduce.
Basically, no one knows.
That's a problem.

The Banking Systems here & in Oz are however awash in Govt cash, so when the green light comes, they may see some good trading to make up for all the weeks closed, assuming that they have both Stock & Staffing available to harvest a possible windfall ..

[flyer]

Good rise this morning, something up?

[Manukatana]

Good rise this morning, something up?

20% today currently. whats going on?

[Scrunch]

20% today currently. whats going on?

If I had to guess, Greed or more precisely FOMO (fear of missing out). Fear and Greed are two very powerful features that move the market. A swing from one to the other causes large share price movements.

[winner69]

20% today currently. whats going on?

Punters think Norwegians buying in a good thing

[Cyclical]

Punters think Norwegians buying in a good thing

True, just over 5%. Meanwhile, AMP have dropped 3% of their holding...I wonder how much of that is Kiwisaver related.

[Cadalac123]

Great volatility. Was 69c undervalued? Sure for what the company was. Is the current price close to the projected intrinsic value previously? probably not. Capital raising brought some financial stability I guess.

Whats the actual intrinsic value appropriate to assign to KMD? literally impossible to know with no cash flows. Can gamble/punt and make lots if you happen to match the institutes fair value projections.

Unreliable DCF shows that even if you assume no cash flow at all in 2H, the 1H alone probably valued it a little around the current price.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

True, just over 5%. Meanwhile, AMP have dropped 3% of their holding...I wonder how much of that is Kiwisaver related.

They haven't really sold much at all. The drop is largely due to the dilution from the capital raising.

Been some interesting (and very profitable!) price action. Not sure whether it's accumulation or short covering? Closed equivalent of 81c on ASX so let's see what happens today...

[Yoda]

Well, the money is out of my account. Let’s see how many shares I get on 24th ......
50% up from the offer price .. but that will change maybe .. possibly.... obviously . Must say, I thought the online process was very easy...

[nztx]

I'm mindful that there will now be over twice as many shares for any future Div to be paid here

Probably a delay to things restarting with some customer resistance to going back out for a while

At best if Div resumes less than half what it was per share but probably less for next 6-12 months

Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm not - to what extent is the KMD name holding SP up ?

[King1212]

NZ Katmandu is open online store
We're delivering the essentials. ❄️🧊
Take on those cooler mornings and evenings with the right gear.

FREE delivery when you spend over $25 | Our couriers will provide contactless delivery and we have increased safety practices in our distribution centre in Christchurch.

As well as OZ ... online

[Cyclical]

Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm not - to what extent is the KMD name holding SP up ?

Well, the whole market seems to be high on QE or something ATM...it seems the worse the prospects, the stronger the rally!

[King1212]

Nah... people was cashing early Feb.....sitting on huge cash! Looking for place to put their cash.... therefore market will get higher n higher especially will low interest in the banks and plenty of newbies buying

[winner69]

Norges guys playing around with some of their KMD shares

[Cyclical]

Norges guys playing around with some of their KMD shares

Yeah, back below 5% now, who knows where to from here. A mechanism for transferring some funds out of the Sharesies crowd...

[Beagle]

My sense is KMD products are largely a fairly expensive discretionary spend and as such they will do it tougher than most other retailers in this deep recession.

[blackcap]

My sense is KMD products are largely a fairly expensive discretionary spend and as such they will do it tougher than most other retailers in this deep recession.

My sense is that they are well and truly in trouble. A lot of kiwi's new pay full price at KMD because you wait for the 70% off sale. But many tourists passing through probably ended up paying 100% retail. They are gone. Not sure if KMD will even be profitable for a year or two.

[Cyclical]

My sense is that they are well and truly in trouble. A lot of kiwi's new pay full price at KMD because you wait for the 70% off sale. But many tourists passing through probably ended up paying 100% retail.

You make a good point. I assume there is still good margin on their 50% or whatever sales, but nothing like the tourist ticket clipping at retail. I wonder what the sales percentage split would have been (in the good times).

[blackcap]

I wonder what the sales percentage split would have been (in the good times).

Now that is the $million question. Of that I am not sure and so my theory may not fully hold. Not even sure if there is margin on the 50% stuff after you take in the fixed costs though.....

I must disclose that I am short this stock at the moment....

[Arthur]

The turnover has doubled in the last couple of years due to their boots and Rip Curl acquisitions. This has diversified their customers and locations which may give the Katmandu brand much greater exposure through the Rip Curl retailers. It will be interesting to see how badly their segments of retail fare.

[Beagle]

My sense is that they are well and truly in trouble. A lot of kiwi's new pay full price at KMD because you wait for the 70% off sale. But many tourists passing through probably ended up paying 100% retail. They are gone. Not sure if KMD will even be profitable for a year or two.

Good to be down in Queenstown in September. Brilliant weather, great skiing, less people and lots of sales. Couldn't help comparing KMD sale prices with the Mountain Warehouse. Mountain Warehouse has some great gear at fantastic sale prices and makes KMD sale prices look like full retail ! Could be some extra good sales down there this year !

[Waltzing]

prehaps another capital rights issue this time next year as they trade in a loss? PPE fashion range as a new hardened economy start to be created for protecting the economy from farther risks?

[nztx]

Bear in mind that even after the KMD Cap Raise, I read somewhere that they still $100 m approx of interest bearing debt onboard going forward which will require servicing..

Around Cap Raise time I calculated that BGR also have $100 million approx unrealised write down on their now badly diluted stake as well over the fair value of the holding last time BGR reported .. arising out of their KMD foray which may land in BGR's next reports

Possibly changed a bit since then, but still probably a fairly hefty impact to come on BGR shareholder funds..

[Waltzing]

i alway sell retail whe they spike, sold out twice on the highs... bought back in as a destressed asset. if they survive will sell again ..be interesting to see if rip curl does soem trade.. after all surfing is on at level 3 and i can only ride my bike . no single sculling but swimming is in. a lady had her kids out swim training a few weeks ago.. pools cold its going to be cold in the water soon.. with Mr O promsing to give the government money if required its a restart ...

[Food4Thought]

They are $73m in debt once you take out the cash.

Not bad but not great either.

Pumpkin Patch went under owing $60m.

Learned a very expensive lesson with Pumpkin Patch. Those were different days, those were days like today.

I can't compare the two, Kathmandu, reaches many target groups. Now with what you mention, I will take that on board.

You have a very good point, and one I had forgotten. Thanks OGG.

Disc. Not a holder, currently out 99.5% (thanks to a Divi reinvestment, came as a surprise after my exit sale early March)

[Waltzing]

depth for tomorrow goes all the way down 63... DISC: always selling KMD...trading stock in private portfolios prehaps transfer to trusts at a later date.. DISC: run multiple entity transfers.

[dreamcatcher]

Surge in online sales and staged reopening of stores

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/352665

[emveha]

Good news from the online business.

Sometimes it pays to be contrarian. When in lock-down, buy outdoor gear (company shares).

[winner69]

Surge in online sales and staged reopening of stores

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/352665

Tough times for retailers ...wonder how much sales are down by?

Everything positive from Xavier but this statement slightly pessimistic ... Delaying and cancelling existing inventory orders where possible, based on reduced levels of expected demand in the medium term;

[850man]

Surge in online sales and staged reopening of stores

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/352665

10% jump in SP on the back of that... really?

[winner69]

10% jump in SP on the back of that... really?

SURGE a cool word for online sales growth as well as the share price,

Online about 10% of sales last year so online SURGING to 20% this year implies overall sales probably down 80%

But what the future holds is up the air so no worries ...we’ll be OK ...no worries

[dreamcatcher]

SURGE a cool word for online sales growth as well as the share price,

Online about 10% of sales last year so online SURGING to 20% this year implies overall sales probably down 80%

But what the future holds is up the air so no worries ...we’ll be OK ...no worries

I believe the "Staged Reopening of Stores" is the interesting part the SURGE in online sales while helpful is all feel good fluff ........

[Waltzing]

interesting article yesterday in Stuff on NZ company in the south island that brought in Italian machine for sock making and the Italians send over software to make woolen masks. KMD is one of there biggest outlets and the manufacture cant wait for NZs store to open. I was thinking just that , where could KMD get fashionable PPE. Well its being manufactured in WOOL right here in NZ using modern Italian machinery brought into the country late last year.. DISC: often holding , buying and selling this stock. Well done NZ and the value in this stock is the BRANDS and every generation loves the outdoors more and more...Do we charge a special package to bring in echo tourists ? Special flights with a 6 month stay at the now closed heritage ? For a mere cool 1 million a person?

[winner69]

KMD the star of the NZX today ...surging big time

Xavier needs to put announcements more people often picking on a real positive indicator And building from that

[EBITDA]

Tough times for retailers ...wonder how much sales are down by?

Everything positive from Xavier but this statement slightly pessimistic ... Delaying and cancelling existing inventory orders where possible, based on reduced levels of expected demand in the medium term;

In the interim statements published last month, KMD is holding a TON of inventory at the moment. ($250m)
This is partially due to the recent acquisition of Ripcurl but it is still a very high level of inventory and in the current market it does make sense that new imports are being cut.

I think KMD was stocked up expecting a strong 2020 and are fortunate that their gear isn't as fashion focused as other clothing retailers, I would expect minimal write off on the value of existing inventory.
Not surprised about the cancellations of orders having viewed their balance sheet, don't think its an overly negative sentiment either. Seems in line with the current economy and honestly am fairly bullish here over a 24 month span.

Disc: Bought at 0.64, sold at 0.84 one week later.
Rebought at 0.73 last week and feeling quite bullish on a mid-long term hold.

[dreamcatcher]

interesting article yesterday in Stuff on NZ company in the south island that brought in Italian machine for sock making and the Italians send over software to make woolen masks. KMD is one of there biggest outlets and the manufacture cant wait for NZs store to open. I was thinking just that , where could KMD get fashionable PPE. Well its being manufactured in WOOL right here in NZ using modern Italian machinery brought into the country late last year.. DISC: often holding , buying and selling this stock. Well done NZ and the value in this stock is the BRANDS and every generation loves the outdoors more and more...Do we charge a special package to bring in echo tourists ? Special flights with a 6 month stay at the now closed heritage ? For a mere cool 1 million a person?


Interesting part is "Merino Wool Masks" are washable so no need for 2 a-day disposables

[Waltzing]

trades today in KMD are huge comapred to HLG. i thought at the time of the CAP raise that the BRAND alone was worth millions to KMD. Rip Curl alone is a huge brand. But i only took the allocated share and sold half for a profit. I really did not image that the market would understand the brand value but it has. Many investors here who are older and dont surf and dont wear KMD with them when they travel around the world with there surf boards and kit surfing gear just dont get it. KMD is NOT HLG. I thought the younger generation understood i would have bought every share i could have got and i bet people did and are now making big profits... i had the idea but failed to execute thinking all those investors would bump the stock on no take over. There is no doubt that may be a retest for the lows once death in the USA spike. Other on line retailers with spikes are JB HIFI.. kust coming over the CNBC broadcast now at 12.27PM. Sorry for the badly typed text as im surround by keyboards and screens and missing trades. Everything is moving so fast.

[nztx]

In the interim statements published last month, KMD is holding a TON of inventory at the moment. ($250m)
This is partially due to the recent acquisition of Ripcurl but it is still a very high level of inventory and in the current market it does make sense that new imports are being cut.

I think KMD was stocked up expecting a strong 2020 and are fortunate that their gear isn't as fashion focused as other clothing retailers, I would expect minimal write off on the value of existing inventory.
Not surprised about the cancellations of orders having viewed their balance sheet, don't think its an overly negative sentiment either. Seems in line with the current economy and honestly am fairly bullish here over a 24 month span.

Disc: Bought at 0.64, sold at 0.84 one week later.
Rebought at 0.73 last week and feeling quite bullish on a mid-long term hold.

Interesting all that Inventory

How much of it is seasonal .. what sort of % of their market will still be buyers on reopening .. and further Inventory write-downs potentially on the horizon out of this ?

Punting on large inventories is one thing but in the rag trade, the strategy can also come badly unstuck

Any word on any restructuring some stores coming from KMD yet ?

Many in Retail Sector may well be expected to re-optimise store exposures out of this on changing business environment & new retail climate .. C-19 & closures must surely provide the ideal opportunity to lop stores that don't meet the mark

[dibble]

. .. and further Inventory write-downs potentially on the horizon out of this ?

...perhaps but dont they have to value stock at cost? One of the higher margin operators so even a 50% fire sale likely to yield some sort of profit.

[EBITDA]

...perhaps but dont they have to value stock at cost? One of the higher margin operators so even a 50% fire sale likely to yield some sort of profit.

Yes, stock is realised at the lesser of cost or realisable value.

I doubt they will be pushed to the point where stock is being sold below cost, I think they will just be slowing down their supply chain as they are currently very high in inventory in proportion to what they can expect to sell in this economy.
My expectation is there will a bit of a slow down this year and lower margins reported in the November results as stock will likely be sold at a discount even larger than what is normal for KMD.

But it isn't food, inventory won't expire, the only way I would see a write down happening is if there is a serious going concern/solvency issue which I believe is unlikely following the capital raise last month.

Tldr: Predicting lower gross profit margin, but not an inventory write off. Annual result in November will be poor, but still deserving of a far higher share price than what we are currently at.
I'm up 27% since I bought on last Thursday at $0.74 and am less bullish on a buy in now that the price has reached $0.93, but am still quite content to hold for the coming months.

[EBITDA]

Interesting all that Inventory

How much of it is seasonal .. what sort of % of their market will still be buyers on reopening .. and further Inventory write-downs potentially on the horizon out of this ?

Punting on large inventories is one thing but in the rag trade, the strategy can also come badly unstuck

Any word on any restructuring some stores coming from KMD yet ?

Many in Retail Sector may well be expected to re-optimise store exposures out of this on changing business environment & new retail climate .. C-19 & closures must surely provide the ideal opportunity to lop stores that don't meet the mark

I haven't read anything on restructuring yet but you're right, definitely need to follow that very closely.

Only other interesting recent news I've read related to KMD was insider disclosures, 3 directors and CEO bought quite substantially last week. CFO had a small addition. But the were fairly major buy-ins by the other 4 execs I am finding very interesting and am hopefully not being naive on that one.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/352408

[nztx]

...perhaps but dont they have to value stock at cost? One of the higher margin operators so even a 50% fire sale likely to yield some sort of profit.


How low will the fire sale prices go, if the intended buyers have evaporated & KMD may have full warehouses & stores of some lines
in a changed retail environment ?

Fair Realisation prices should then be the marker point on stocksheets, not cost whatever that was if higher

[dibble]

How low will the fire sale prices go, if the intended buyers have evaporated & KMD may have full warehouses & stores of some lines
in a changed retail environment ?

Fair Realisation prices should then be the marker point on stocksheets, not cost whatever that was if higher

Definitely a risk, just saying they probably have quite a lot of room to discount relative to other retailers before they lose cash on the stock investment. If they have enough volume to totally saturate local demand that would be worrisome.

[nztx]

Definitely a risk, just saying they probably have quite a lot of room to discount relative to other retailers before they lose cash on the stock investment. If they have enough volume to totally saturate local demand that would be worrisome.

Multiply that by other majors in the same Sectors with similar competing stock types & who may experience similar
that gives indication of potential magnitude - then look at KMD's dual country exposure
Across the ditch there has been a trail of earlier disasters which may not help things either, depending on how
the Group's Buying habits have adapted, if they have at all..

[Waltzing]

if KMD can its a chance to put others under pressure and surely a price war cant be far away on the retail front.. who will blick first. Personally im waiting for the news on the travel sector which is where you really want to have some good listening equipment down the pipes.....

[nztx]

I haven't read anything on restructuring yet but you're right, definitely need to follow that very closely.

Only other interesting recent news I've read related to KMD was insider disclosures, 3 directors and CEO bought quite substantially last week. CFO had a small addition. But the were fairly major buy-ins by the other 4 execs I am finding very interesting and am hopefully not being naive on that one.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/352408

I should imagine they may have inherited some 'excesses' in recently acquired businesses, needing the fat & inefficiencies trimmed..

What was the position of those acquired businesses ?

For what it's worth if SCY & WHS are restructuring things & shedding staff / trimming excesses & non performing bits off - then KMD with it's large Retail footprint may well be in a similar boat to a degree, but with the newly acquired retail bits etc thrown in for extra work required ..

[nztx]

if KMD can its a chance to put others under pressure and surely a price war cant be far away on the retail front.. who will blick first. Personally im waiting for the news on the travel sector which is where you really want to have some good listening equipment down the pipes.....

how about the 'if the potential customers are there, interested, ready or not distracted by issues elsewhere' ?

[Waltzing]

Well nztx, i have to say that i have been surprised at the fearless buying of all stocks by the general public investor and or the INSTOS. If anyone whatch MR Buffets recent comments you might have seen him say his company had not been buying. If i had realised the share fearless nature of the NZ investor i would have applied for every dollar of KMD rights i could buy not just my small allocation since im always selling KMD TA.. It appear that the majority of the shareholders have not yet any intention to sell down in a hurry as i expected.. Im now hoping that the numbers in july august will indeed cuase a modest sell off back to the 70's. But im not holding me breath... The market did not even sell off to the levels it prehaps should have since the FED has basically underwritten the rest of the year....I will have to keep an eye on my local KMD shop once or twice a week.. I learnt trading the banks you really do need to talk the staff and if possible get some communciation laid into the pipes...

[2mac]

hi, im just wondering, why is KMD's NTA -13.27c according to directbroking. Can someone help me understand why they are negative please? Thanks!

[kiwidollabill]

I looked at that a while ago, from what I recall Ripcurls iventory position was just as bad at KMD

[winner69]

hi, im just wondering, why is KMD's NTA -13.27c according to directbroking. Can someone help me understand why they are negative please? Thanks!

They have got $635m of intangibles....mainly goodwill from the acquisitions they've made

Not counted in NTA

[kiwidollabill]

I dont see why this is on a tear following a "Surge in online sales "

Ripcurls online is 6.5% of total while Kathmandu is 11.1%. With "online sales were 2.5 to 3 times higher" this is still a major drop in revenue.

Disc, I feel inclined to short.

[DazRaz]

Yeah, I find the current price mystifying. Perhaps too many investors who love the brand but unable to interpret financial statements.

[2mac]

Same, i was very tempted to buy but it just doesnt make sense for me with the sudden surge. maybe people are just being optimistic that we are now entering level 2.

[clip]

Also coming into winter, people have been pent up for 8 weeks not able to spend much money, now allowed a bit more freedom and ready to go in and buy that new tent/pack/fleece they've been eyeing up for the past 2 months

[STONKS_ONLY_GO_UP]

Squeeze and next leg up when??
Next week?
Level 1?
Trans tasman bubble?

[+++++]

Squeeze and next leg up when??
Next week?
Level 1?
Trans tasman bubble?

Wouldn't expect public 'trans-tasman bubble' travel anytime this year. With the path taken currently in NZ combating virus and discrepancy between NZ vs AU in management I don't imagine they will risk it.
Maybe see some heightened interest in domestic camping / tramping? and can't see surfing gear demand (AU especially) disappearing anytime soon.

[Waltzing]

Winter surfing in Aus.. well yes , KMD is a global brand and it will take a lot of surfing gear in australia for it move the net profit everwhere... the sell was in the range of 1..10 to 1.15 and the range is probably still 1.10 to 1.25 as a trading sell for a while yet, a buy under 80 cents.

[STONKS_ONLY_GO_UP]

Tl;dr The recession is priced in and summarily cancelled. KMD to 1.70 EOY.

Shopped at KMD Wellington store for some DD today. 2pmish Sunday afternoon. Shop was full. 50 people or so. They have extended their trading hours, notably adding about 4 extra hours of shopping for Sat/Sun. Manager said it has been like Christmas ever since level 2 and they were smashing targets. The bear is kill. Buy now while under $1.

[King1212]

Meh...$600m plus cap clothing company...better place to put the money ....

[Waltzing]

I will keep an eye on the regions at weekends when i get into central hamilton but its only may 1.70 YEND ? well there is a long way to go.. Last time i was in sweden and holland i did not see ripcurl anywhere. Wellington is not going to refloat this ship yet. And with the Cap raise 1.70 would equate to fully priced before the GHPC (global health pandemic crisis). Take a look at the chart since it floated...

[STONKS_ONLY_GO_UP]

I will keep an eye on the regions at weekends when i get into central hamilton but its only may 1.70 YEND ? well there is a long way to go.. Last time i was in sweden and holland i did not see ripcurl anywhere. Wellington is not going to refloat this ship yet. And with the Cap raise 1.70 would equate to fully priced before the GHPC (global health pandemic crisis). Take a look at the chart since it floated...

With the cap raise taken into account, 1.70 is near Mid March levels, well below the adjusted all time high of 2.51, unless I've made an error. This seems to me reasonable. That's putting back to August 2019 pricing.

[bung5]

Meh...$600m plus cap clothing company...better place to put the money ....

tell that to lululemon shareholders

[Waltzing]

price pressure may come into play between 1.20 and 1.60 depending on the average share cost price after the cap raise. If you have got your AVE price down to under a dollar then selling pressure might come on at 1.20 and above as seller with plenty of new share take profits. But how likely is a dividend next 6 to 12 months and what might it be. No one is buying this for dividend and no holder before the cap raise is buying some are only waiting to sell. its FOMO and if there will need to be a lot of them and they will need to hope the cap raise people dont want to dump and run.

[Waltzing]

ACC selling some.

[Waltzing]

bought some again at 1.10 yesterday after selling out at 1.10 from .72... nice bounce

[Waltzing]

lowering my weighting each time.. more selling to come from ? at 1.30-1.40?

[Sideshow Bob]

Meh...$600m plus cap clothing company...better place to put the money ....

More like about $865m.....

[Justin]

more capital value than pre-covid19:sleep:

[nztx]

more capital value than pre-covid19:sleep:

how does the multiple on new Capital stumped up in comparison look ? ;)

[Waltzing]

KMD is about brands and in a media world brand is everything. cool brands will only get more valuable not less although in a more pollution aware world expensive fashion brands may come under pressure if they are not green around the edges. In this world cool brands become more valuable.

[Waltzing]

bought back in at 1.10....brands, the world is about brands...

[peat]

stocked up on stuff to keep us warm for our Sth Is trip this week. Good prices , huge sales (as always)
I'm not really a Kathmandu shopper myself but partner has been and with Summit card we got great deals.

For you holders the Whanganui store told us they'd been really steady even busy and weren't really dependant on overseas tourists.

[Waltzing]

bought and sold in the space of 2 days. Stocks are always over priced... BUY great Brands are Great Value. I hope this is not considered a Ramp. But stock prices in this market are not related to FA Fundamentals.

[kiora]

Talking about brands.Icebreaker life time guarantee on socks(buyers lifetime :,not the socks)) hard to beat

[winner69]

stocked up on stuff to keep us warm for our Sth Is trip this week. Good prices , huge sales (as always)
I'm not really a Kathmandu shopper myself but partner has been and with Summit card we got great deals.

For you holders the Whanganui store told us they'd been really steady even busy and weren't really dependant on overseas tourists.

Overseas tourist in Wanganui ....that’s funny

[Justin]

why asx price cheaper than nzx？

[sb9]

why asx price cheaper than nzx？

Asx is shut today for public holiday and those prices you're seeing are from Friday.

[Justin]

Asx is shut today for public holiday and those prices you're seeing are from Friday.

That’s make sense, thanks

[Cadalac123]

Overseas tourist in Wanganui ....that’s funny

lmao......

Everyone has a KMD jacket. THAT'S why the sp went up!
Classic Lynch investing boys! /s

[peat]

Overseas tourist in Wanganui ....that’s funny

sorry mate I dont get the joke could you explain it (seriously)

[Sideshow Bob]

sorry mate I dont get the joke could you explain it (seriously)

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/07/10-investing-tips-from-peter-lynch-that-you-should.aspx (http://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/07/10-investing-tips-from-peter-lynch-that-you-should.aspx)

Rule #1 - although I would guess C123 probably thinks that those buying are making the same mistake as described.

[Waltzing]

I love a good pair of socks for cold winter in the area of hamilton. South islanders will think that is a joke of course. Super warm MAY might impact sales a little. DISC: alway trying to buy and sell retail.

[Waltzing]

TA suggesting 1.80 by 31 march 2021? or sooner?

[Cadalac123]

TA suggesting 1.80 by 31 march 2021? or sooner?

wow how do you work out precise dates when horizontals will be reached?

[Waltzing]

TA extension of the Trend.

[DazRaz]

It will start dropping after September at the latest. Their full year results will be available then.

[peat]

wow how do you work out precise dates when horizontals will be reached?
Gann projections can provide both time and price

[Waltzing]

yes there should be some great pull backs in the price. Traded this stock since its IPO. but it will power on for many years to come and if you have ever owned a top like this you will KNOW WHY!

Brands that a high quality are like a long term investments and they create there own momentum.

This 15 year old surfing jacket is also the envy of my professional TRI friends and professional trainers. It doubles as a very hip orange autumn, winter and spring cycling jacket.

I cant even begin to describe how my tall blonde trainer loves this top....

11676

You might say why dont i hold long. Well if you look at the product in the photo you will see quality and style that my high performance professional TRI and surf friends love. Do the investors in the stock understand this product i use and have shown here? Prehaps the investor does not actually use the product? Try out this little top and you will be hooked for life. How many of you are users of products like this?

[dreamcatcher]

KMD also joins ASX index with A2M AIZ EBO MCY

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=ZSP&timeframe=D&period=M6

[Waltzing]

DISC: bought again at 1.10 the other day and sold at 133. Back to 1.10 today... i imagine all those new share buyers who have been driving this market just found out what kind of market this is... Its a buy the crash sell the rally... Of course if you bought at 50 its a hold... bought at 72 and sold at 1.10. a few weeks ago...CNBC Carter Worth says bottom here could go to 2800 on the SP 500 and 1.5% vol range. Stock like KMD and others here could come under regular pressure.

[winner69]

Long discussion with Kathmandu CFO about Covid impacts etc in this Westpac piece

https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/PDF_Uploads/EIU_Westpac_COVID-19_Retail_FINAL.pdf

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355640

Reads kinda okay, then you realize FY19 pro forma normalised Combined Group EBITDA was $151m, now expected to be "above $70m"... so about half of last year... then you realize a huge amount of shares have been issued (more than doubling the shares on issue)... so on a Earnings per share basis, KMD is down about 80% on last year...?
Interesting that the share price has only gone down about 50%...

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355640

Reads kinda okay, then you realize FY19 pro forma normalised Combined Group EBITDA was $151m, now expected to be "above $70m"... so about half of last year... then you realize a huge amount of shares have been issued (more than doubling the shares on issue)... so on a Earnings per share basis, KMD is down about 80% on last year...?
Interesting that the share price has only gone down about 50%...

Earnings per share are down 80%, and the share price goes up 10% on the open today... share price now less than half way off where KMD was at the start of the year, despite a dramatically changed outlook... crazy stuff... but I suppose like AIR, it doesn't matter about the earnings if the story is strong.

[winner69]

Earnings per share are down 80%, and the share price goes up 10% on the open today... share price now less than half way off where KMD was at the start of the year, despite a dramatically changed outlook... crazy stuff... but I suppose like AIR, it doesn't matter about the earnings if the story is strong.

The story is that KMD will be back to a new normal (better than the old normal) in 2021

Coming out of this a much stronger company

Rememember BRANDS are the name of the game.

That $70m number is meaningless really.

[trader_jackson]

The story is that KMD will be back to a new normal (better than the old normal) in 2021

Coming out of this a much stronger company

Rememember BRANDS are the name of the game.

That $70m number is meaningless really.

True, the faith in Pumpkin Patch was unshakable for a while there

[MarineSalvage]

I know I have just had to buy three down jackets for the kids as its freezing... all from KMD

[winner69]

Tj — also think a bit of relief in that update ....KMD not going bust.

[Waltzing]

well really did not buy enough in the offer....and i own the best dual purpose top rip curl has ever produced.. I left a photo here and its really the best made jacket ever ...i would have bought many had i known the quality at the time., I doubt the same quality exist today..

[winner69]

I know I have just had to buy three down jackets for the kids as its freezing... all from KMD

Hope you paid full price for shareholders sake

They need dynamic pricing ....stormy days price goes up

[MarineSalvage]

I'm a scout leader so always been a Summit Club member but you only get a discount on full price, which you never would pay anyway. Personally I wear TrangoWorld which is better than any NZ brand
Hope you paid full price for shareholders sake

They need dynamic pricing ....stormy days price goes up

[winner69]

I'm a scout leader so always been a Summit Club member but you only get a discount on full price, which you never would pay anyway. Personally I wear TrangoWorld which is better than any NZ brand

So good stuff for dad and the cheap stuff for the kids

[MarineSalvage]

SHHH dont tell them... KMD stuff is OK and still $100 each... I tend to go to more extreme places than them (pre COVID)
So good stuff for dad and the cheap stuff for the kids

[kiwidollabill]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355640

Reads kinda okay, then you realize FY19 pro forma normalised Combined Group EBITDA was $151m, now expected to be "above $70m"... so about half of last year... then you realize a huge amount of shares have been issued (more than doubling the shares on issue)... so on a Earnings per share basis, KMD is down about 80% on last year...?
Interesting that the share price has only gone down about 50%...

Yep, ecom 'helped' but unable to lessen the blow, not proficient with that channel...

Still bearish on this, their product mix/brand offering/supply chain not well positioned. Will struggle on EPS and be at continued whim of the banks.

Wrote a long post on this a while back.

[winner69]

At least ‘above $70m ebitda’ means they almost broke even second half (H1 was $78m)

Seeing H2 is Feb thru July that’s a pretty good effort

Doubt they will give any guidance for F21 for some time

[Waltzing]

i own the gear "rip curl" and the older stuff has lasted me decades. Oops that not good for sales but i do enjoy trading this stock. put your best rip curl gear up here..Disc: i have no relationships or sponserships with this company!!!! Just have had exceptional experiences with the brand.

[kiwidollabill]

At least ‘above $70m ebitda’ means they almost broke even second half (H1 was $78m)

Seeing H2 is Feb thru July that’s a pretty good effort

Doubt they will give any guidance for F21 for some time

Be interesting to see what the cashflow statement looks like in comparison.... I bet they've screwed their suppliers in the interim...

[MarineSalvage]

The lifecycle of a brand is always an interesting concept - I recently read a report that Under Armor had gone to the top of a "no longer worn by teens" list... report suggested that this would be significant as those teens got older and into the core market for UA... how powerful will RipCurl and Kathmandu remain over time??

TJ, I think this may be a prescient comment. I think there is a lot of uncertainty about the long term sustainable competitive advantage of Rip Curl, a discretionary youth orientated fashion brand in a highly competitive space. Too risky for me.

[Waltzing]

How powerful is rip curl over time i dont know. But 15 years after i bought my dual purpose orange top i use for outdoors and cycling in the autumn , winter and spring. I would buy more of that jacket if i could still get it in stock. It looks like the day i bought it. I posted it on this thread a few weeks back. I wonder how many investors actually buy the products they invest in. After a life time of out door activities it was the best buy i ever made and now i would buy a trunk load of them and i bet i could sell them today on trademe or ebay.

[MarineSalvage]

We all have jackets like that... Patagonia of course encourage you to have a jacket for life... I think a lot of investors do actually buy products they invest in. As I've mentioned I buy KMD stuff for the kids and I use a couple of sets of their thermals, but they arent known for being technically ahead of the curve (so for me I buy other jackets and snow pants/packs etc)but they are fast fashion followers. I was in two cafes in AKL this morning for meetings and every second person had a KMD puffer, so was quite happy with that...
How powerful is rip curl over time i dont know. But 15 years after i bought my dual purpose orange top i use for outdoors and cycling in the autumn , winter and spring. I would buy more of that jacket if i could still get it in stock. It looks like the day i bought it. I posted it on this thread a few weeks back. I wonder how many investors actually buy the products they invest in. After a life time of out door activities it was the best buy i ever made and now i would buy a trunk load of them and i bet i could sell them today on trademe or ebay.

[Waltzing]

"We all have jackets like that" yes i have see many jackets similar but not one of them of the same design. Not a puffer jacket , there are similar jackets out there but active wear jackets are often specific to a particular sporting use and most are not dual purpose. For active outdoor specialists the small design features are often not understood by the general public. I have other similar jackets but none of them are suitable as dual purpose training jackets as that one was/is. Closest i have seen are the jackets wore by jockey's for training but they are not suitable for the sports i do. That rip curl jacket had a perfect blend of ventilation and warmth for 3 season training.

Another out door activity i do does not have a rain shower jacket and pants suitable but a UK firm may be able to provide a version if i ask nicely.

[tomm]

Kathmandu's shares price is trading at 1/3 since the fear broke down and wasn't able to claw back as others stocks. The vaccine will be produced anyway but soon or later is the question. It will be back at atleast 2/3 once come to this stage. And this is equal to 100% profit.
To me , I stock it up and we will see.

[bung5]

Kathmandu's shares price is trading at 1/3 since the fear broke down and wasn't able to claw back as others stocks. The vaccine will be produced anyway but soon or later is the question. It will be back at atleast 2/3 once come to this stage. And this is equal to 100% profit.
To me , I stock it up and we will see.

Have you taken into account twice as many shares on issue?

[TheHunter]

Kathmandu's shares price is trading at 1/3 since the fear broke down and wasn't able to claw back as others stocks. The vaccine will be produced anyway but soon or later is the question. It will be back at atleast 2/3 once come to this stage. And this is equal to 100% profit.
To me , I stock it up and we will see.

Careful mate, KMD had ~200m shares on issue pre-covid and now has ~700m on issue; it is no longer comparable in this manner.

EPS is therefore now aprox 1/3 less than what it was, but on the flip side KMD has a healthy cash balance. If this gets cash gets burnt however, the SP at current levels is very generous based on historical PE ratios and the current environment IMO.

DYOR.

[bung5]

Careful mate, KMD had ~200m shares on issue pre-covid and now has ~700m on issue; it is no longer comparable in this manner.

EPS is therefore now aprox 1/3 less than what it was, but on the flip side KMD has a healthy cash balance. If this gets cash gets burnt however, the SP at current levels is very generous based on historical PE ratios and the current environment IMO.

DYOR.

I had to go check the numbers as it looked like I was way off... It's somewhere in between:

Before raise 295,073,217 Shares.
After riase 709,001,384

[Justin]

went shopping today... realized at least 60% of people were wearing Kathmandu’s :)

[MarineSalvage]

Kids and I went to Botany Mall on Saturday - spent about 20mins in KMD and I was quite happy with the number of shoppers... a fair bit of stock around but like Justin I saw a lot of people in the mall with KMD Puffers

[Waltzing]

bought a new wheelie back in early feb for europe travel, silly me and another small back pack last week. will use them locally till 2022. Some good rates on flying in NZ from my travel agent last week. The KMD jackets not quite as nice as my Hugo Boss from copenhagen last year but warm.

[Waltzing]

more money flowing in to this stock again...

[Akane]

more money flowing in to this stock again...

Probably instos doing a little pump and dump?

[winner69]

more money flowing in to this stock again...

Based on technical indicators or just gut feel (wishful thinking)?

[tomm]

went shopping today... realized at least 60% of people were wearing Kathmandu’s :)
Hahaha, I saw the same , most of the people wearing Kathmandu : Indian, Chinese, European, I 'd like to say it is 70%. The rest are others brands.
Wait untill springs then the people will flood to buy gears for their camping.

[MarineSalvage]

Camping equipment usually does well in a downturn and should continue to do so (especially where we are locked in our own country) the difference between previous downturns when KMD did OK is the staggering amount of competition at all price levels. The Warehouse and Kmart have cheap but serviceable gear, Mountain Warehouse is a category killer, Macpac, Bivouac, Stirlings, Hunting and Fishing, Rebel and many independents... not to mention the overseas websites delivering straight to door... I still hold a fair number of shares and I hope they do OK but it will be hard slog. Marketing is usually sale based eg 20-50% off... be nice to see some more imagination so not scrapping for the bottom of the market...
Hahaha, I saw the same , most of the people wearing Kathmandu : Indian, Chinese, European, I 'd like to say it is 70%. The rest are others brands.
Wait untill springs then the people will flood to buy gears for their camping.

[Waltzing]

:Based on technical indicators or just gut feel (wishful thinking)?:

volumns?

vol was not over 1 million before 3 PM for a week ? now is i think...



3,006,677
$3,453,161




now up 4 million

got at least 4 screens up in front of me at the moment...

[JSwan]

Woah, are you a professional trader?

[winner69]

:Based on technical indicators or just gut feel (wishful thinking)?:

volumns?

vol was not over 1 million before 3 PM for a week ? now is i think...



3,006,677
$3,453,161




now up 4 million

got at least 4 screens up in front of me at the moment...

Decent rise from 107 a week ago

Hope you making zillions Ironman

[Waltzing]

winner69 - DSIC: we did not bet the farm on KMD cap raise as we thought the global situation would get a lot worse. We were slow out of the blocks... no virus has shut the world down before.

And we normally only trade good stocks paying dividends with no high level of debt. More like beagle types.

We are not trading KMD at the moment but will do so again and we missed this rise.

DISC: no we are not making zillions as we are extremely conservative. From accounting back grounds and are even more conservative than MR B.

High growth investors and high risk investors will be making money. There is another 10 years left in this market unless there is a war. Its a slow growth world now, im sure winner you are knocking the cover off the ball compared to our conservative approaches.

Although if Level 3 comes back for more than a week we will step up the investing as we have expected that so far we have only just seen this the start of this new market.

We are hoping for another sell off soon...we have had first hand information on the "IN MATES" inside the hotels from JUNE onwards and the in mates are not as serious about the situation as perhaps we are lead to believe.

Im cleared too ride the country side in lockdowns... looks good for the rest of the week... roads are mine...big days out on the bike coming after visiting the banks tomorrow for some new trading accounts setups..

[Justin]

tomorrow on sale 😭

[Waltzing]

dont buy!!!! dont BUY!!!! DONT buy... DONT BUY!!!! blur whoo hoooooo!!

[Waltzing]

well KMD touch 1.08 again today and bounced , far more volume in this stock again today and HLG. 1.9 million... i think this is now the tradie stock of the market...

[Justin]

any idea why sp up today，i thought
they can’t open shops and may suffer during COVID alert Level 3

[Grimy]

any idea why sp up today，i thought
they can’t open shops and may suffer during COVID alert Level 3

Only in Auckland (and we can still buy online), rest of the country can still visit a shop.
And people hopeful the L3 Alert won't last long.

[+++++]

My thoughts as well (along with other stocks, last few days) I understand it's a fantastic business. However It does seem quite a 50/50 scenario regarding the virus. I'm possibly more of a 'worrier' than some..
Hoping for the best planning for the worst here.

Not currently holding.

[Waltzing]

sell as there will be another buying opportunity in the run up the US election.