All Ords Index. [Archive] - Page 7

drillfix

24-08-2011, 04:30 AM

Evening Folks,

Here is yesterdays All Ords (xao) which shows a nice green candle upward short of resistance, yet I feel it eventual move that the need for the market to take a breather and to have a natural desire to collaborate and touch back upward to the declining 13ema, whereby even though we may break resistance, we could find ourselves falling back down as the other EMAs shown on the chart continue to also fall down upon the price downwards or should I say, technically.

On with the chart:

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imgplace.com/viewimg812/5766/93xao20110823dw.png

For all you Blue Chip traders and investors out there, keep an eye out today on some stocks.
Something different taken from LateLine Business
Wed Reporting Diary> http://www.imgplace.com/viewimg198/7674/82latelinediarywed24aug.png

The above link shows>> Reporting today are:
BHP, Qantas, Seven West, Suncorp Metway - full year result
Pacific Brands, Macarthur Coal, Downer EDI, Asciano - full year result

And in the US, July new home sales.

As I type this the US Dow is green +200, UK closed green at +34, and the DAX is green at +58, and CAC is +33

No doubt this will act as a positive lead for our markets today with a very likely test to the 13ema on the XAO chart above (potentially, imo)

Well thats that for now so Have a great day everybody.

Cheers :)

trackers

24-08-2011, 02:30 PM

Update.. Still trying to get the pic to display nicely...

http://iforce.co.nz/i/1u4abfvp.0j2.png

sharer

24-08-2011, 02:51 PM

Thanks for your efforts Trackers.
Very much appreciated.

evilroyrule

24-08-2011, 03:04 PM

Thanks for your efforts Trackers.
Very much appreciated.

good work track marks.

can anyone log onot hot copper or have i been banned again?:t_down:

crooky

24-08-2011, 09:21 PM

[QUOTE=trackers;355280]Update.. Still trying to get the pic to display nicely...

QUOTE]

Is looking good trackers , thanks.

percy

24-08-2011, 09:29 PM

good work track marks.

can anyone log onot hot copper or have i been banned again?:t_down:
Lorraina had no trouble logging on.
You have not been doing a Harry Potter and performing an indecent "spell" on a goat,I hope.?

drillfix

26-08-2011, 12:01 PM

Not sure how to interpret this except that if they are doing it, then something doesn't quite sound right.

Got this message from my IB flash notice when logging in:

=======================
To HKMEX,NYMEX,NYSELIFFE traders:
Thu Aug 25 13:54:57 2011 EST

As a result of the continued volatile trading environment, please be advised that exchange margins and/or house margins are likely to increase overnight and over the next couple of days, particularly in the metals. For exchange specific increases, please visit the respective websites. IB will also be increasing the gold derivatives margin. Please monitor any affected holdings closely and manage your risk accordingly.
=======================

Quite easy to see they dont mass dumping or shorting, but this does not apply to the ASX so far anyway, but still makes me wonder.

drillfix

29-08-2011, 12:40 PM

Morning Folks,

Quite a busy weekend and I never got around to posting up some charts of last Fridays close as I usually do over the weekend.

Well a little late but still worth the revision for those who are inclined with regards to Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude Oil and our local ASX XAO index.

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/zmg2dz4a1i7sd8uexlb_All-Ords.png

Dollar daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/7419464oly72xyksw62_Dollar.png

Gold daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/wutwmunln3brqstz1buz_Gold.png

Silver daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/62ufup3k6vktswqto1am_Silver.png

Copper Futures daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/4lw1tdwz3e9erngnc66_Copper.png

Crude daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/p7znsejmx9iwjdjm5sx_Crude.png

Have a good day today and trade well :)

gazprom1

29-08-2011, 12:47 PM

Morning Folks,

Quite a busy weekend and I never got around to posting up some charts of last Fridays close as I usually do over the weekend.

Well a little late but still worth the revision for those who are inclined.

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/zmg2dz4a1i7sd8uexlb_All-Ords.png

Dollar daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/7419464oly72xyksw62_Dollar.png

Gold daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/wutwmunln3brqstz1buz_Gold.png

Silver daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/62ufup3k6vktswqto1am_Silver.png

Copper Futures daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/4lw1tdwz3e9erngnc66_Copper.png

Crude daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/p7znsejmx9iwjdjm5sx_Crude.png

Have a good day today and trade well :)

Hey DF,

Great to see you are still posting!!! Been away for a winter break the past couple of months. Have not been trading at all but have been watching from the sidelines. Have you been successful in your trading strategies??

I am hoping to get some time in the near future to start trading actively again.

Hope all is well on the home front!!!=)

Gazprom

drillfix

29-08-2011, 12:59 PM

Hey DF,

Great to see you are still posting!!! Been away for a winter break the past couple of months. Have not been trading at all but have been watching from the sidelines. Have you been successful in your trading strategies??

I am hoping to get some time in the near future to start trading actively again.

Hope all is well on the home front!!!=)

Gazprom

Hi Gaz,

Also great to see you back too! I had wondered where you were and asked in a few threads if anybody saw you about, and good to hear you have been taking a break.

There will always be time to come back and actively trade again, and although I must say it has been quite tricky trading in a downfall and the best strategy has been mostly a defensive one although, some scalps here and there were gifts to a certain degree providing you got ride of them once they were green :P

Yes have been successful with quite a few trades, but also have had some small losses which is only expected when day trading.

Of course as we all know, it is much easier to trade in a rising bull market as it can be nearly effortless at times so what is good about these markets is they really make you think a lot more and pressure you more which can be testing to say the least.

Good to see you back and look forward to reading more of your posts, but in the meantime, have fun on the sidelines :)

trackers

30-08-2011, 10:38 AM

Welcome back Gaz :)

Was looking at the XAO yesterday thinking things could get interesting if we get into the 4400's - might find out today..

3574

drillfix

30-08-2011, 11:58 AM

Agree Trackers, holding above 4,400 today is a fantastic sign alright, and watch all the money come off the sidelines.

I am already half off the sidelines and will not hesistate to commit once up and away to test the next upper resistance should we break past and hold the fort above 4,400 as you say.

drillfix

30-08-2011, 01:04 PM

Hi KW,

Problem I have is that I stopped subscribing to US data on my IB account and only have been using and paying ASX data.

The code is R200 for IB but my ProRealtime only shows me IRU ISHARES Russell 2000 which really is not much of a chart.

Here is a yahoo of the iShares Russel Top 200: http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=IWL&t=1y&q=c&l=on&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-

Or taken form the Yahoo finance website: http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=IWL&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=

Are you looking at trading the top 10 in particular or just anything that presents an opportunity?

Was thinking about subscribing to data again whilst the asx has been in decline as there had been plenty of short opportunities as you know on those markets.

drillfix

30-08-2011, 01:08 PM

Trackers, I would have thought more steam would have been released today than what has so far.

It appears now that we may make it up to resistance and just sit below if we done close +66 something points green today.

Near the the last hour will consider whatever actions to take accordingly.

Hoop

30-08-2011, 03:09 PM

drillfix

30-08-2011, 03:41 PM

Agree with you on this Hoop.

Just when it "may have" appeared that the XAO could have the steam to punch through 4,400 potentially, it has not even come close or with any conviction whatsoever.

Seems we are stuck in the middle at this precise moment of post and as posted in another thread, breaking below 4250 and I am completely out, and any rush and conviction break upward of 4,400 then cool.

Although having said and read all the previous, there fundamentally is still no clarification or precise evidence to show us that everything is quite normal or healthy, or sound. There is still lots of Mud, Mist and unclear pictures harboring on top of some what could be called fragile situations, both in EU and US.

drillfix

30-08-2011, 06:24 PM

Actually looking at the ETFs on the index. Quite a few to choose from - but probably stick to iShares or Vanguard ones. Interesting that they have short ETFs and Contrarian ETFs - must remember that next time we hit a market slide and I'm cashed up.

Not a bad idea at all there KW.

I dont know about you and others, but personally, I am starting to get sick of XAO and is moves or lack of should I say.

There are some real good trades to be had out there, but if your not in the que or have your finger on the pulse, things to me are becoming tiresome trying to be here, there and everywhere.

Maybe its best to lay down XAO, leave the long term account running doing its thing and trade futures, US, or commodities or index EFTs as you say.

At least that way, there is movement one way or the other either long or short which also means your either on the right side of the trade, or you are not, its as simple as that.

The only thing I find with switching to trading those is that the hours to keep up with. Although I guess I could trade the 1st couple of hours and some UK stocks as well.

Trading crude oil futures (CL) is like taking a ride on a sling shot ride that can give you a complete adrenalin rush, or can leave you feeling rather sea sick or like throwing after being turned on your head, so perhaps Currencies or Forex will also give some opportunities.

Our market up +7.7 points in the green whilst the futures at present look good, I wonder why exactly there was a big sell off, or either that or simply profit takers doing what they do best.

Xerof

30-08-2011, 08:18 PM

drillfix

30-08-2011, 09:08 PM

I haven't managed to look at the chart more closely yet but trackers' chart is displaying the formation of a bearish gartley, in which case the index should rally to about 78% of the main decline, then collapse

http://www.harmonictrader.com/price_patternsgartley.htm

Interesting post there Xerof and well potentially spotted.

Here is a chart of end of days XAO >> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/hy01gfckpwsza4cn3ey_All-Ords.png

Here is another same chart with a potential Gartley Pattern drawn in :

XAO Chart EOD with Gartley >> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/eq6l8thxkjyxzelttp_Gartley.png

From looking at the XAO, it seems the daily would need to test the top of the upper Bollinger Band located at 4.444

This would obviously create a new high which the market would be sucked into, (even me) to some degree so I would be inclined to think that a break above 4,500+ would be a more safe zone and thus avoiding such Gartley Pattern which is yet to still fully play out.

Xerof

30-08-2011, 09:18 PM

Good work Drilly

Yes, correct to say it has yet to fully play out and even if it gets to the 78.6% level, it can then morph into a butterfly pattern, (which just extends beyond to a higher fib level and 168% is usually reliable)

Such patterns are common and very popular with the forex crowd, but should equally apply to indices, if not even liquid individual stocks. I have only used them on FX in a past life, but the formation shone like a beacon off Trackers chart

Cheers

drillfix

30-08-2011, 09:26 PM

Hey KW, Here is one for you mate.

From ProRealtime EOD data with many choices and versions of the Russell 1000, 2000, 3000.

Here is Russell 2000 value index >> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ww11tkub33ercya3afm_Value.png

Here is Russell 2000 growth index >> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/a4ajfk4k13jawupiifj_Growth.png

Also shown are the choices which also come in choices of Grown Index, Value Index and Fund of which two are shown above.

PRT Russell Choices >> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/qpgo9atwts54ux568mjp_Choices.png

Dont know if that is of any use to you but its the only thing ProRealtime offer with regards to Russell, although there is another ISHARES one which does not show much data with regards to charting.

Cheers~!

trackers

31-08-2011, 09:07 AM

Investors buying into this market which is behaving suspiciously like a Stage 1 Bear Market Cycle at this stage have to ask themselves why?

If they think its a cyclic bull market at the end of a correction stage then buying in now will seem right.... disciplinewise.

If they think the Allords is in a Bear market Cycle then buying in now would be wrong and emotion is in control ...greed and temptation... as they watch big gains days go by.

Think risk v reward... if the rally is the sucker type then its room to move around is between the black arrows....with a maximum of 7% left within this secondary rally inside the sucker rally...To buy now at this point you would have to be totally convinced that the cyclic bull cycle is still operating....nahhh..too risky for me.

Disc: 80% cash...bought shares in a small gold explorer this week for a dabble.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/si7mcswaod2odoc9pjsj.png

Strange times. I think XAO might get into 4400's today but 4500 is in no threat.

Meanwhile,

DOW is up a small amount. GOLD is also up strongly ??? and Copper is up strongly too.

Weird.

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=HG&cot=085692&p=d1

Hoop

31-08-2011, 12:10 PM

People often forget that Gold is actually an industrial metal and is used in many places and processes. The fact that both Gold and Copper are moving up suggests to me that manufacturing industries are restocking. It takes a huge amount to knock an economic recovery off track ; as opposed to a sharemarket one; once its got going.

The last months have been a bull mkt correction and not much more once you get past the bollocks about US debt and a few minnows in Europe.

.... But time will tell. <img src="images/smilies/wink2.gif" alt="" title="Wink" smilieid="39" class="inlineimg" border="0">

Belg...I hope your bull market cycle thinking is not due to the share market being strongly correlated with economic growth...because it's not.
I agree with you the economy will recover soon but I think the share market can operate in a bear environment during a good economic cycle. Share market theory says it can..

Research has proved that the PE Ratio is the primary factor and inflation is the main driver of the stock market...when Inflation rises it pushes down the P/E Ratio value and vice versa.....All the other factors, economy etc are less correlated and have limited shorter term erratic effects.

Ref: http://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Economy.pdf ... The Economy is not highly correlated to Economic Growth

tricha

01-09-2011, 12:25 PM

Hoop

01-09-2011, 02:02 PM

Copper has been in a slight downtrend since March ...risen up to 4.20 at close today needs to break above 4.50 to reverse the trend.

trackers

01-09-2011, 02:56 PM

Interesting figures and commentary KW, cheers. What a bizarre situation that Germany and Oz capital markets are performing among the worst

drillfix

01-09-2011, 05:05 PM

drillfix

01-09-2011, 05:30 PM

Interesting figures and commentary KW, cheers. What a bizarre situation that Germany and Oz capital markets are performing among the worst

Yep, good post by KW, yet as I have said before, this seems to be the norm these days, men are woman, woman are men, bad is good, good is bad and everything seems to be flipped on its head or operating in reverse. Or so it seems~!

Hoop

01-09-2011, 07:05 PM

Quick check in on the returns of the world markets over the last 52 weeks, and YTD:
Dow 16.2% and -0.5%
Nasdaq 18.5% and -4.16%
FTSE 0.52% and -10.3%
Nikkei 0.32% and -13.88%
DAX -4.9% and -17.4%
ASX -4.4% and -9.4%

If you were an American investor, buy and hold is working just fine for you. If you are German or Australian, you would have been better off with your money in the bank.

Now since Germany and Australia supposedly have two of the "strongest" economies on the planet - this should demonstrate quite ably that there is no relationship between economic performance and the share market. In fact, Australia has done worse than Japan over the last year, and only marginally better this calendar year, and that country had an earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown that stopped industry in its tracks.

Exactly KW
The media isn't focused on the other strong economies either atm...remember the BRIC countries apart from Russia the other 3 capital markets have fallen in the last 52 weeks especially Brazil (bovespa)

Yep, good post by KW, yet as I have said before, this seems to be the norm these days, men are woman, woman are men, bad is good, good is bad and everything seems to be flipped on its head or operating in reverse. Or so it seems~!

Drilly its always been the norm there's nothing paradoxical about a falling capital market and a rising (strong) economic growth...

A quick KISS example....A bubbling economy creates inflation ...inflation is a key factor in dampening down share markets (statistically significant correlation). The country's Reserve bank applies the economic handbrake (reduces money supply) to control inflation this also has a downward effect because cash rates go up and the share market yield rate has to follow to compete this again creates a downward effect by pushing down the price part of the P/E ratio (the primary driver). The E part (earnings) can be affected as well as the financial servicing costs rise

percy

01-09-2011, 07:55 PM

Funny old world.I was at Cavotec special meeting today.Mike Colaco from Inet [US] who supply ground support equipment for aircraft,told me business was very good and companies they deal with are enjoying good business.Ottonel Popesco CEO of Cavotec [Europe] said they had no slow down in Europe,while they were looking to BRICs for growth.Mybe it's the business you are in.

Xerof

01-09-2011, 08:13 PM

Drilly, the Gartley is progressing towards target area, which should be around 4500ish (sorry, only working visually off a free chart at the moment, so no precise fib levels to suggest)

Just switched the chart to candlesticks and note todays might be a shooting star - need to see what Fridays does........

drillfix

02-09-2011, 05:55 PM

Hey Xerof, I would have thought just the pattern alone would have been sufficient to entail it to play out, which now by the looks of things, is kinda playing out as we speak.

Good on ya again for picking the signal though (I call it a lop sided W) however after reading hot copper, it seems non of the usual gang of experts or wafflers over there have picked up on it so again well done to you.

Between you, hoop, kw, trackers and the gang, it will serve as a nice early warning system compared to the endless opinion and debate at hc, even though there can be interesting reading there. (ie: redbacka etc).

Miss the good ole Mr. P though, as his lectures and technical spankings were good to remind us continually to pull our socks up, so hopefully one day when he has drank enough wine sitting on a boat in Europe, he will pop in and tell us all off for still posting on Forums or getting in wrong, or doing mad man trades..LOL, Either way, I hope he is enjoying himself and finding a way to fill the void so to speak.

Will post some charts over the weekend for the usual weekend or sunday banter.

Cheers~!

drillfix

05-09-2011, 04:32 AM

Evening / Morning Folks, hope you all have had a good weekend.

A late post but useful to have a quick revision of end of day close of both Australia and Global Markets.

Besides gold and silver, there appears to be many common indicators stacking up among many of the charts posted below.
Some being on the daily showing divergence in the MACD Histogram and a down move in the W%R, as well as OBV and RSI also reversing.

As Xerof mentioned earlier the XAO had appeared to be forming a potential Gartley Patter (http://www.harmonictrader.com/price_patternsgartley.htm)but now appears to have done something more like a near butterfly pattern instead but still early days and this week will no doubt tell us.

In the meantime, both US and the EU seems to have offered the ASX a negative lead so what news comes out next week will need to be good to keep any possible momentum upward or we no doubt will continue down the rabbit hole to test the previous support at approx 4,252 and failing that, then to intermediate support at 4,150

Both gold and silver are looking strong again and no doubt gold will test the previous high or resistance set at $1,910
Failing a new high past resistance, gold may /could /might act as a potential double top which could be negative technically for gold.
Silver also seems set to test resistance at $43.85 approx and like gold, failing breaking past that could be seen as negative technically, however silver as many know has been in a lower trading range since May 2011 and an upper trading range since July 2011. RSI and EMA's on both precious metals are also showing a positive positions in the directional movement.

Like the AUS Dollar, Copper also has failed to even test the upper resistance let alone break past a 90ema and is still in the upper part of its trading cycle, but this also shares MACD histogram divergence and W%R decline along with OBV and RSI potential downward movement should global markets continue to show signs of weakness.

Now, on with the charts, so here are the charts from last Fridays close for the following:

EMA REF
13ema
30ema
90ema
200ema

===================== AUSTRALIA =======================

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/xpnhezhsuuzreudaxys_All-Ords.png

Dollar daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/yfammlrnp1e3yghiozxv_Aus-Dollar.png

===================== METALS ==========================

Gold daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/91eqmnc2najd3adlt71i_Gold.png

Silver daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/7gjcwof3kzhgje0k62r3_Silver.png

Copper Futures daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/1wjsxgrhp9briqgne_Copper.png

Crude daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/0v8418jbztm1ldtnwus1_Crude.png

===================== US MARKETS =========================

Dow Jones daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/1e5e3wlmtesk94a9o01q_Dow-Jones.png

S&P500 daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/qaqvmz3p81e7vt23gc76_SP500.png

Nasdaq daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/cvwe1r85uqr8giedlmx_NASDAQ.png

Oz Shares US index daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/p1b6fwvznbfcphzidkn4_AusIndexUS.png

====================== EU & JAPAN ========================

DAX daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/6xmlo9k7oi7245pdyqa4_Germany.png

UK FTSE daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/jhsp9auj487vg7zn37p7_UK.png

CAC daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/yp11ya8d3v5o4x1y9d3j_France.png

Japan Nikkei daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/jdz91cvwkieqaws52p1_Japan.png

===============================================

My view of the markets this week will be that of a couple weeks back in which the fight still continues.

OVERALL GLOBAL PICTURE > http://www.chrisperruna.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/01/012907_bull_bear_fight.jpg

No doubt there are some trades to be had here and there, but currently I am back into caution mode again and playing hit and run with some trades is becoming frustrating.

That will do for now and see you all tomorrow/today some time folks.

Have a good evening/day a head.

Cheers~!

drillfix

05-09-2011, 01:12 PM

Well, for about 15 minutes I may have thought that 4,252 would have held and a bounce off that had taken place, but I am wrong about that obviously.

4,252 is broke and now a test of intermediate support at 4,150 appears imminent, although maybe not today although sometime this week? Who knows but the market will let us know one way or the other.

Lets not forget that the US are on Holiday on their Monday being Labor (Labour) day so not much of a lead from them so looks like Europe will show us their cards as far as taking a lead. It has been also said lately that the US has been taking their lead from EU so still lots of issues there to be addressed in some shape or form.

Lets see how we go closer to the EOD as perhaps we can run back to or near support back at 4,252 'ish

drillfix

05-09-2011, 11:36 PM

Evening People

Well, what a day hey. No doubt it had been felt for many out there.

Lets take a look at todays EOD of the XAO

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/sk9256l92746j1v7lke_All-Ords.png

Further tests of lower support seems on the cards, and as I type, DAX futures are red as are the FTSE futures.

Currently, I am sitting on 97% cash in the trading account, I started also pulling some out of the long account for stocks that I feel may well take a further hit during any potential declines.

Hoping this decline does not gain momentum but it is quite hard to hope as all the evidence is pointing towards or right at it.

One day and week at a time though hey.

Cheers for now~!

trackers

06-09-2011, 09:18 AM

This is more or less playing out as expected... Though I'm in two minds about whether to hold junior gold stocks or not.

Buying the dips with low-ball offers on decent stocks seems to be an OK way to get through this

drillfix

06-09-2011, 12:09 PM

Nice to see somebody sounding off~!

Good strategy there Trackers, though I would still advise caution, or a quick trigger finger at times (on certain stocks) but that's just me. Sometimes it cost me, sometimes it saves me, but either way any gains are good gains in this market providing they are gains :P

Hoop

08-09-2011, 10:40 AM

Investors buying into this market which is behaving suspiciously like a Stage 1 Bear Market Cycle at this stage have to ask themselves why?

If they think its a cyclic bull market at the end of a correction stage then buying in now will seem right.... disciplinewise.

If they think the Allords is in a Bear market Cycle then buying in now would be wrong and emotion is in control ...greed and temptation... as they watch big gains days go by.

Think risk v reward... if the rally is the sucker type then its room to move around is between the black arrows....with a maximum of 7% left within this secondary rally inside the sucker rally...To buy now at this point you would have to be totally convinced that the cyclic bull cycle is still operating....nahhh..too risky for me.

Disc: 80% cash...bought shares in a small gold explorer this week for a dabble.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/si7mcswaod2odoc9pjsj.png

Overall nothing really has happened even with these sharp rises recently. The All Ords is still technically broken...no need to draw a fresh chart, all that is needed is to look at the spot where the index is today and you will see for yourself.

Unless Obama comes out with a bad news speech it seems the All Ords is going to break through the weak 4285 resistance once again and test the stronger 4360//4380 resistance zone.

The outlook is still very bearish after that minicrash. Since then the chart has created a uptrend flag feature which is usually associated as a breather between the fall. The still possible Dead cat bounce formation (yet to be completed) can have a flag or pennant feature within it.

Hoop

08-09-2011, 12:02 PM

Oz macros aren't looking too bad Hoop. At least far better than the doom and gloom merchants that have been dominating the press recently would have you believe. I'd pick that secondary support line to broken soon and resistance to form around the 4700 mark before breaking through after about a month of trying. All subject to the AUD sitting in its current trading range (and the Ockers getting bailed out in the quarter finals :) ).

Am I a perma bull or what! :)

Hey Belg ....your not alone..there are some big repectedGurus in the US that think the S&P500 has bottomed out..so thats good news for the All Ords and globally.
I may seem like be a big bear atm and I hope I'm not bisaed to the negative as I try to see it as it is technically...Who knows????...maybe next week the market goes mad and the technicals change with buy signals popping up everywhere.....and you + all the other Fundies can tell me " I told you so" :p.

but ....until then....ohhh Belg check out your favourite Bollinger bands indicator on your AORD chart, that will be a nice perma bull test for you :D

Good Investing
Hoop

drillfix

08-09-2011, 12:32 PM

I kinda share your sentiment as well Hoop, and well put.

Although experts thinks the S&P500 may have bottomed, as you know this does not mean it will, as the US still has not managed to resolve how exactly are they going to sort out whatever mess they currently have.

To me, all what is happening at this point of time is happening because somebody has to make money, and it also brings hope to those who do exactly that (hope) but until there is any actual Serious Fundamental explanation for both the US and EU about who and how matters are being solved or cured then everything is a Bong Smoke, wishful thinking and temporary exuberance.

Or, of course if our XAO can push up and past 4,700 resistance then I am sure it will seem like the tablets I take have gotten to me, however in the meantime we are still in a lower trading range from 4,700 and all the EMA's favour the Bear, and the Weekly EMA's are begun to become lined up nicely to get setup for another leg down but prior to this on the weekly, there appears to be a need for price to touch upward and test the 13ema which currently sits approx at 4,414 which all in all, is IMO of course.

dumbass

08-09-2011, 01:01 PM

totally agree, there is a 2 leg correction going on ,( circle in hoops chart ) theres normal a relationship between the two legs.

if leg 1 = leg 2 should run up to 4400 - 4500 (moving averages and trendlines congest here )

and then a serious wave lower .

similar pattern on SP 500

winner69

08-09-2011, 01:16 PM

Rusty

08-09-2011, 01:22 PM

drillfix

08-09-2011, 01:33 PM

Drillfix you crack me up. As far as I can see, everything is acting as expected. IMO the markets are still in a down trend, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they appear to break this to suck some people in. Gold is having its correction at the perfect moment to draw people back to the markets. I wouldn’t be surprised if golds trend line has once again steepened, and we wont see the correction hitting the 1500s as some anticipated. The amount of volume going threw gold is the most its been, as far as I can see. This aint doom and gloom, as there is always money to be made.

Hi Rusty,
Not sure why I crack you up for having a point of view while viewing my charts although and I agree with you about the markets currently still in a downtrend.

Also, cant recall saying anything about no money to be made and Gold is a different story all together so I will leave that for the gold thread.

Cheers~!

Rusty

08-09-2011, 01:49 PM

Had to laugh at ...solved or cured then everything is a Bong Smoke, wishful thinking and temporary exuberance.
The post wasnt directed at you, just my thoughts on the state of the market.

drillfix

08-09-2011, 01:55 PM

Had to laugh at ...solved or cured then everything is a Bong Smoke, wishful thinking and temporary exuberance.
The post wasnt directed at you, just my thoughts on the state of the market.

LOL Rusty,

Sorry mate, my way of expressing matters are not really the best, but I would be the 1st to say I am no journalist :P

Thanks for clarifying :)

dumbass

08-09-2011, 02:22 PM

please stop talking dirty dumbass .... trying to eat my sushi for lunch

ha ha should be a huge red candlestick between those two legs , oh err missus

Lego_Man

08-09-2011, 02:27 PM

White candlestick > Black Candlestick

Also helps to have a good Oscillator.

drillfix

08-09-2011, 02:44 PM

Seems to be magnetically wanting to land on the Support/Resistance line approx at 4,252 so no doubt not surprised to see it land within a couple of points of that.

Add/Edit
Also taking a look at the SPI (SNFE) it seems to be getting setup for a leg downward as the 60 minute chart has just punched through the 13ema as too previously on the 15 min (obviously) as well as negative MACD histogram on the 60 min chart.

drillfix

12-09-2011, 01:51 PM

Morning folks,

Funny how this thread disappears when stocks go up.
Yet then when they fall out it comes again so I found this thread on page 2 :P

Anyhoo,

Here is a chart from Fridays close.

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/hovnyxg7sdsyhl39x3i_XAO.png

No suprise today that having seen such negative lead from global markets as well as our SPI (sydney futures) hourly chart fall off a cliff which doesn't help but here we are now.

Looks like a test of Intermediate Support will be tested at 4,150 and failing that, then the previous lower double candles that reside at approx 4,060 'ish.

Going a bit easy on some stocks today as looking at Bloomberg Index Futures (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures) it seems the DOW remains Red as well does Germany's DAX and UK's FTSE .

So, one day at a time and where there is volatility there is opportunity, yet some stocks are not offering much spread for bounce which can create more risk.

Anyway folks, have a good day all the same :)

drillfix

12-09-2011, 02:36 PM

Oh Oh,

Not good folks, looking like a test of the lower range again having just broke through 4,150 now at 4,140.x

As much as I have been temped to take some bounce trades or dip my hand in the cookie jar, I am kinda glad I have not as its not looking like much of a bounce so far.

Plus the bear in me says stay on the sidelines here~!

Hoop

12-09-2011, 08:14 PM

Hoop

12-09-2011, 08:42 PM

I got Colin Twiggs subscription Email just moments ago..On his website (http://goldstocksforex.com/?cat=182205)he has a slightly different version

drillfix

12-09-2011, 11:14 PM

Evening folks,

Can only agree with your sentiment there Hoop, as for quite some time and even on the simplest of tell tale sign's of the EMA alignment in downward motion continue to tell us all what direction we are in, let alone the cycles of other indicators swinging to and fro.

Here is a close of today's All ords or XAO.

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/jn9xeswfzutbdrrndwr_All-Ords.png

As usual its been this Who's Winning > http://www.chrisperruna.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/01/012907_bull_bear_fight.jpg

But I think we all will know what the answer to that is.

Bloomberg Global Futures (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures) continue to show us that the DOW, DAX & FTSE are continuing the colour RED so tomorrow will be another hellish lead for the XAO.

Guess tomorrow will be another day of baton down the hatches as it appears the Bear is certainly here upon us.

For what its worth, have a good tomorrow and trade or protect safely.

Cheers~!

soulman

13-09-2011, 01:20 AM

Yep, I had a plan to sell all my bluey after ex-div. Instead caught me off guard, still got PPT and QBE. The best guess is that if the market tank, the top 100 will be sold off. I did offload CBA and ASX at higher prices a few weeks ago.

PPT should be well supported with the off-market BB and QBE is now yielding at 10% dividend, only if they are maintained this FY. I guess I will keep them for now.

2 stocks I sold a few weeks ago went up plenty today - HUN and WRM. That's the way the cookie crumble.

Financially dependant

13-09-2011, 07:45 AM

My view is 4050-4100 will hold, the buyers will come in on mass below this support as per 9th August (the highest volume on my chart)....IMHO this should set a bottom over the next day or two.

trackers

13-09-2011, 11:19 AM

The flag feature on this latest rally (possible DCB) was broken downwards today.
This is a bear warning of another sharp drop to start the next downward leg towards the 3750 level.
There's a good chance the 4056 support (the mini crash bottom) wont hold and will be breached, and probably quickly.

If the AllOrds drops to below the 4000 (4056) level ...it will officially signal a Bear market (a drop of -20% or more requirement)

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/tfv0w83sp7qe2sjlqu.png

Thanks Hoop, really appreciate your posts and comments... Only have a few holds at the moment, partially thanks to reading your posts and reminding myself that risk/reward only stacks up in very rare cases at the moment until those charts show some sustained rallies and fundamentally US sees some growth and EUR sorts out a way forward to writeoff/bailout/grow out of their debt

Hoop

13-09-2011, 11:51 AM

Thxs for the kind words Trackers.
Seeing the late buyers pushing up the USA equities it seems the All Ords may quickly throwback this morning to retest the 4160/4165 break area today. A retrace often happens after a breakout and should not be seen as a positive at this stage.

drillfix

13-09-2011, 01:31 PM

Yep,the yanks buy any good news whatsoever, yet China to the rescue.

China Will Continue to Buy European Government Debt (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-25/china-to-buy-hungarian-debt-as-wen-extends-support-to-european-finances.html)

Today is a tip toe type of day going on.

Finding it rather awkward to trade as it has left little Margin or Spread with lower volumes. So its either take a position and hold, and then prey that good news will continue to flow, or dont enter at all, as I wont trade a large % of cash to gain such a small reward so its darn if you do or dont. And I sure am not going to follow Hot Coppers Mob with Ramp City.

Now here is something you dont see everyday. Here are a couple of live charts of the Sydney Futures Exchange (SPI) on 30 day, 60 min charts.

SPI 60 min Chart> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/tdcrvd4m3ma32yky66iv_SPI.png

And now the same with Fibonacci drawn on the Hourly high to low. Any break above 50% will more probably be positive.

SPI 60 min Chart & FIBs> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/7j8ixd0pzgea5t5jfad_SPI-Fibs.png

Yesterdays huge red candle stands out like dog bollocks, and when that was happening so was the sell off of many stocks yesterday.

Today shows a test of the 13ema and about to break upward as shown with the Positive divergence of the 60 min MACD Histogram and signal lines preparing to cross.

Dont know if we will get a Higher High, as the odds seem set for Lower High but as always, time will tell.

Cheers~!

Toulouse - Luzern

13-09-2011, 02:31 PM

To me the US equities recovery today in the last 2 hours of trade seems based on fairly soft and subjective info re Italy and China possible purchase of Italian assets ...

ASX up 22 today and was up 54 earlier

Tomorrow will be interesting as US traders work out the China possible purchase of Italian assets story likelihood ...

drillfix

13-09-2011, 03:16 PM

Toulouse, it seems like obvious profit taking going on, so some thought there will be a rally, yet some realise a profit and just take it and then ask questions later it seems.

SPI still not going anywhere even though there is divergence showing and looking like a end of day move, although I will not be surprised if we dont.

For every story of good there is another story of maybe not so good. Plenty of doom to go around for everybody ...lol

drillfix

14-09-2011, 05:17 PM

shasta

14-09-2011, 05:34 PM

Well, Rollin and a Tumblin. Kinda sounds like a blues song, dont it?

Off to an average start and then bloomberg futures and the SPI started diving down past the previous low which means No Surprises here as this shows a sign of continuation of the current trend and the uncertainty that surrounds EU at present.

Took a small loss on a trade which reminds me to sit on my hands rather than trading out of boredom however there are some opportunities out there though I cant seem to enthused.

Good luck to anybody trading.

With the French Banks in disarray & Greece deep in the dodo, best keep a watch on the German markets, if the Germans don't support the troubled EU countries, the whole PIGS situation will spread thru Europe, & the rest of the world like wildfire.

Cant expect China to come to the rescue of the West & Japan have there own internal issues!

Aside from China & Germany who else has the capacity to bail out Europe? The Middle East?

Reminds me, people should read "Eves Bite", the most amazing book i have ever read & it pretty much signals how the West will fall & the East to rise

Sad part is that its already happening

drillfix

14-09-2011, 05:46 PM

With the French Banks in disarray & Greece deep in the dodo, best keep a watch on the German markets, if the Germans don't support the troubled EU countries, the whole PIGS situation will spread thru Europe, & the rest of the world like wildfire.

Cant expect China to come to the rescue of the West & Japan have there own internal issues!

Aside from China & Germany who else has the capacity to bail out Europe? The Middle East?

Reminds me, people should read "Eves Bite", the most amazing book i have ever read & it pretty much signals how the West will fall & the East to rise

Sad part is that its already happening

Agreed Shasta, I will look out for that book on PDF,

Also with regarding news of the fall well here it is, taken from Bloomberg:
>>> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-14/asia-stocks-gain-on-easing-europe-credit-freeze-concern-south-korea-falls.html

Snippet below for those whom can be bothered clicking:

China Remarks

Stocks fell today as Chinese Premier Wen signaled developed nations should cut deficits and create jobs rather than relying on China to bail out the world economy. Stocks had gained in the U.S. on Sept. 12 after the Financial Times reported that Italy aims to sell “significant” quantities of bonds and stakes in strategic companies to China.

“Countries must first put their own houses in order,” Wen said today at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, China. “Developed countries must take responsible fiscal and monetary policies. What is most important now is to prevent the further spread of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.”

moimoi

14-09-2011, 07:03 PM

Holy...who would of known that Chinese Premier Wen was a Republican..

(and thanks for the snippet as i was suffering such market lethargy i couldn't be bothered clicking)

LMAO.

Financially dependant

15-09-2011, 07:01 AM

My view is 4050-4100 will hold, the buyers will come in on mass below this support as per 9th August (the highest volume on my chart)....IMHO this should set a bottom over the next day or two.

A test today.....

3607

bermuda

15-09-2011, 10:10 AM

A test today.....

3607

FD,
Yesterday I was subjected to several TV channels describing in graphic detail the forthcoming collapse of Europe. The German Chanceller even stated she was worried about an uncontrollable meltdown.

So I awoke this morning fearing a big DOW sell off only to see it had tracked higher by 140 points ( at one stage over 200 ). I thought about this for a while and
checked the DOW again thinking it must be at 10247 and not 11247. No , the DOW, in the face of what could be the biggest meltdown since ROME fell, has gone up.

What gives??? I wish Phaedrus was still around to help. Where are we going in the next few months?
See you soon.

bermuda

15-09-2011, 10:26 AM

Duplication

dumbass

15-09-2011, 10:46 AM

Bermuda ... The answer for the rise is in the macroeconomic events (and not the charts or the fundementals)

Come on belg you can do better than that old chestnut.

it is in the charts and not cnbc

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7257-Daily-S-amp-P-500-INDEX-TRACKER&p=356781&viewfull=1#post356781

look at the action from the last three days , futures have been very ugly pre market , europe has opened ugly then us markets have gone higher.
that is not the behaviour of a market ready to crash.

from here we may get a correction say to 1160 then we need to rally to 1240 - 1260 to complete the pattern.
then bear market will be back on, just my opinion.

STRAT

15-09-2011, 11:24 AM

What gives??? I wish Phaedrus was still around to help. Where are we going in the next few months?
See you soon.Hi Super B
Dont think Mr P would have answered that question. He didnt do predictions and was sometimes came down on those who did.

What is clear on this chart is that France, Germany and Spain are on a different path to the others. India, China, USA, England, Japan and Aussie

drillfix

15-09-2011, 11:52 AM

Mr. P showed us his customised MSI (market strength indicator) which excellent for many for its simplicity and elegance.

What we need at this precise point in time is a Market Madness Indicator (MMI) to show us which part of the world is insane or becoming mad.

Belg, I dont know if I buy the macroeconomic events view, as right after China came out and virtually said, let them sink.

I would be more on the side of back room phone calls and team work across the Atlantic to Fabricate whatever needs to be done. Crazy for sure, yet at least it sounds viable because its a lot more do-able and simpler than actually trying to fix up the mess of how it got created.

Enjoy whatever relief for just that, but proceed with Caution , IMO, as we are stuck in this short trading range atm.

Hoop

15-09-2011, 12:39 PM

From the freedirectionary.com

Can't see the wood for the trees (British, American & Australian) also can't see the forest for the trees (American & Australian) if someone can't see the wood for the trees, they are unable to understand what is important in a situation because they are giving too much attention to details After you've spent years researching a single topic you get to a point where you can't see the wood for the trees.

OK ...lets get rid of the trees.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/zkwayvy0c30a156r8ait.png

Toulouse - Luzern

15-09-2011, 01:15 PM

Hi
The drillfix MMI indicator sounds like a good idea to me.

IMHO Daily Volatilty may be a factor to consider.
This may be either a negative risk or an opportunity ...

Some data to look at:

Daily Dow Jones Industrial Average DWI - DOW Index.
Volatility - The value is the difference between daily high and low and % change to the open

The set of DWI data is for 1 Sep 2011 to today:
407.18 3.7% Today
215.17 1.9%
292.21 2.7%
375.32 3.3%
260.81 2.3%
294.87 2.6%
347.12 3.1%
311.4 2.7%
262.09 2.3% 1 Sep 2011

This set is from the August volatility period:
575.68 5.0% 18 August 2011
244.19 2.1%
199.43 1.7%
251.8 2.2%
286.54 2.6%
556.54 5.2%
565.88 5.0%
662.53 6.1%
654.88 5.7%
507.72 4.5%
528.05 4.4%
278.94 2.4%
295.05 2.4%
342.39 2.8% 1 August 2011

Volatility Difference between High and Low ASX and % change to the open
109.8 2.6% Today
42.6 1.0%
130 3.1%
47 1.1%
54.1 1.3%
82.5 2.0%
49.4 1.2%
84.6 2.0%
65.8 1.5%
53.8 1.2% 1 Sep 2011

63 1.5% 12 Aug 2011
105.1 2.5%
95.2 2.3%
273.9 6.8% 9 August 2011
98.4 2.4%
151.7 3.5%
80.7 1.8%
80.3 1.8% 3 August 2011

rgds

drillfix

15-09-2011, 01:56 PM

Thanks TL,

Now just got to find a way to mix all that data into a customised BYO indicator :)

Also, what other mixes could be added in to the equation, VIX? Futures? Gold? Oil?

OK ...lets get rid of the trees.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/zkwayvy0c30a156r8ait.png

LOL Hoop, Classic simplicity, love it.

The obvious answer and the one that stares us in the face everyday until proven or shown otherwise.

Belg,
I am not the best for making up indicators but here are a few variations with previous years explanation:

Here is 2009's version >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/0vy3pz4hql4980lu6cs_MarketMad2009.jpg
or
Here is 2006's verison >>> http://www.drduru.com/money/060517_GuidemapForTheNewMarketMadness.htm

Not sure if it all adds up but anything is worth a read :P

percy

15-09-2011, 06:57 PM

Has anyone had trouble with stocknessmonster's web site today?

Financially dependant

17-09-2011, 06:12 AM

Where to now?

3610

drillfix

18-09-2011, 02:57 PM

Where to now?

3610

FD,
It seems apparent the All Ords is acting like a lost sheep, as in does not go too far up, nor fall too far down.

IMO and as others have also said, we are just touching/playing the middle zone of 4,250.x whilst trading or forming consolidation pattern.

If we have a leg up then back up to 4,400.x approx and if not then back down to 4,056.x approx.

Or at least thats my take on it presently.

Will post some charts this evening for a Sunday night banter session.

winner69

18-09-2011, 05:36 PM

I still believe all those gurus like Shane Oliver .... the ASX200 WILL be over 5000 ... if not 5500 by Xmas

Those guys live and breathe the markets ... they should know eh

drillfix

18-09-2011, 06:01 PM

I still believe all those gurus like Shane Oliver .... the ASX200 WILL be over 5000 ... if not 5500 by Xmas

Those guys live and breathe the markets ... they should know eh

LOL winner, Your having a go aren't ya? Dont forget they also have crystal ball's from Big W :)

To my knowledge there is no official authoritarian to whom is actually the foreseer of the Markets as we all know that Mr. Market does what it does best. Which to my knowledge is = prove everybody wrong no matter how smart, clever, rich or ready they are or proclaim.

Or at least the last time I checked :P

drillfix

22-09-2011, 03:26 PM

Afternoon Folks,

Yet another dogs breakfast day for some I guess, however when I sit back and just breath I remind myself that I am alive :P

Here are a couple of charts showing the obvious starting with yesterdays All ords.

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/t7q3bgf6l2kun7rt3e1_All-Ords.png

Looks like the All Ords has finished playing hanky panky with the intermediate support based at 4,056
Sure it may finish on there or around about that approximately but as I type it seems it has its mind made up with no uncertainty to which direction it is going to take.

Also here is an intraday shot of the SPI SNFE aka shown below:

SPI Sydney Futures Exhcange > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/p90je8yk4vnszel8y0iz_SNFE.png

Sometimes when trading I continually eyeball the 60 min chart as at time this can show some momentary direction shifts whilst charts are swinging and shaking though it all equals the same which on both the 60 and daily is the Lower Highs and Lower Lows. In fact it just made a new one as I type this which is also why I am probably posting this.

It seems we have just extended the Range of the trading Range and eventually the new lower range should be around 3,900 approx.

Time to do a few other chores.

Have a good afternoon~!

soulman

22-09-2011, 05:08 PM

After watching the bear Harry Dent on Lateline Business, I decided to do research on short selling (good providers with no chance of failing) and definitely 2 targets on my mind are BHP and RIO. I guess I am a bit too slow for this party.

Is CFD the only way of shortings? Anyone?

drillfix

22-09-2011, 05:20 PM

Sure you can trade both ways with CFD's and you can actually short sell "certain" ASX stocks but usually there is only so many available and not everybody can do it, "when" they wish to short, and most ASX positions with retail brokers make you close your position before 3pm, which means retails brokers suck for that.

IB allow you to sell "some" approved ASX stocks for short selling but they only just started this a month or two ago which actually should have been perfect yet there still may only be a certain Quantity open for "the market" to short sell so every man and his dog cannot take a position at once.

IB offer a whole range of instruments and I have successfully shorted a few US stocks and futures. The also offer now Gold and Silver futures to also buy and sell contracts both short or long.

CFD providers I am not a big fan of myself having read a few things which put me off, but that was a couple of year back.

Hope that helps SM.

mark100

22-09-2011, 05:39 PM

I wouldn't take to much notice of Harry Dent. Full of wild predictions and never tells you about the ones he got wrong. ie DOW at 40,000

drillfix

22-09-2011, 05:48 PM

Looks like touchdown. A close very close to intermediate support, but 20 minutes can be a long time in this market.

drillfix

22-09-2011, 05:49 PM

I wouldn't take to much notice of Harry Dent. Full of wild predictions and never tells you about the ones he got wrong. ie DOW at 40,000

Hahaa mark, now worries, I dont think I saw that fella last night anyways although there seems to be preachers on both sides of the fence talking up both the storm and sunshine.

soulman

23-09-2011, 03:39 AM

Thanks Drill. I don't trust CFD either. Never used them before. But can anyone shorts without CFDs? The pure facts CFD trading does not involve the underlying shares itself mean if the CFD provider fails, then you might have to say goodbye to your cash even if the coy is still a going concern. Something like Storm or Opes?

Mark, I don't know much about Harry Dent but I have already made up my mind a few months ago that China is a bubble and a collapsed in China (12 months time or so), property bust in China and then resources collapse will slammed house prices in the west, ie Western Australia, where I live. Hence, he just said what I was thinking. Watch out for a housing bust in Perth soon. It has already began and many amateur and unsuspecting buyer/investors are sitting on negative equity in their biggest investment.

drillfix

23-09-2011, 04:19 AM

Souly, are you watching these markets tonight?

Looks like tomorrow will be a another blitz. Enter the bear dragon of which we not charter to a new lower trading range which I though would be to 3,900 but I think we will smash that nearly upon the first minutes upon open.

=====
With regards to your question, can anyone short without CFD's?

Well, with commsec as an example you need to sit a stupid little Short Selling Quiz (test) and pass it before they allow you to do it.
There is only so many stocks codes available for short selling, and each stock code has only so many shares you can use to short.

Meaning, check this list: >> http://www.asx.net.au/data/shortsell.txt

That will tell you what stocks where previously shorted the day before and shows you the product class, total shares sold etc etc.
Now just because a company has say 500,000,000 (half a billion) shares on issue, not all of them are shortable, meaning the may allow 20 million of them to be shortable.

Then some pro traders, Insto's get in first and know the market is a short and they take a position, and use up say 19.9 million leaving only 100,000 shares left for retail investors to use and first in best dressed.

Retail positions must be closed or covered at 3pm, or they close your position automatically, so touch titty's if you are slightly out of pocket, or well done if your in the money.

Now, dont know which broker you use, but some may vary, that is one example from commsec, so I hope that helps anyway~!
=====

Back to markets,

It seems this leg down may continue, and continue which then every now and then, relief rallies taking precedence whilst the doom is put a side for a while, and then up and down in the new trading zone of which Low has not been set as yet, but if things keep going it could eventually be the next Major support located @ 3,440 (feels funny even typing that).

Cheers for now~!

drillfix

23-09-2011, 05:06 AM

Also it seems gold also taking a flogging.

Just watching bloomberg and a commentator group thought some folks selling to cover losses, then a floor trader speculates that somebody BIG has had to sell to raise some money.

Looks like its not just the small guy here and the bigger up the chain then no doubt surely the more falls look possible.

As I type

Gold Futures down -3.47%
Silver Futures down -8.55%

Adding to that, Iron Ore also sliding down the ladder published here below:

Iron Ore Falls >> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-21/iron-ore-s-four-year-slide-hitting-mining-earnings-commodities.html

Also Adding to that,

Copper Futures also entering into a Bear Market currently down -7.64%

NYMEX Crude Oil down -6.08%

Skol

23-09-2011, 06:49 AM

Yep, all bad news.
All the 'experts' who've been telling us gold stocks are cheap will now have to eat their words, gold stocks are discounted because gold is overpriced and has a propensity to crash every few decades.

When oil was $147 the 'experts' were telling us oil stocks were cheap, but the smart money knew oil was grossly overpriced and would probably crash, which it did, from $147 to $32. Oil stocks were then very, very expensive.

^HUi down 7%.

The Big Ease

23-09-2011, 06:53 AM

Phaedrus chose a good time to sell up and go travelling.

I don't think we will see a bottom for months.

37degrees

23-09-2011, 08:18 AM

Hoop

23-09-2011, 11:04 AM

Drillfix,
I really appreciate all the work you do on this thread. Good stuff!
I've been weighing it up and I think I preferred the market last year, when I was a trading genius and everything I bought went up.

This is starting to look like work. I'm sure there will be some tasty opportunities today, but I'm a little trigger shy ATM.

The All Ords are in a cyclic bear market cycle again....ahhhh brings back memories
Remember all of those old sayings Temptation is the root of all evil.. Don't try to catch a falling dagger ..u get ****ty fingers when u pick bottoms etc etc...

The bear just loves frustrating the hell out of the Fundies...great time to be a Techie...ehh:D

Disc 80% cash...Hmmmm...may go to US$ in my multi-currency account.

drillfix

23-09-2011, 11:43 AM

Morning Folks,

Well, what a night that was. Couldn't decide between watch a Horror flick or the Markets, however the markets seemed scarier so I watch that instead :P

37degree's,
Thanks for you kind words mate. And yes it sure is dog easy trading markets when they are Bull.
I am 99% cash out so even playing hit and run is scary for me whilst knowing the markets are in decline. Opportunities sure, but best to be quick as you can and select your stocks you know the personality of them over others, imo.

All we need to do is survive, which at times is playing defensive trading rather than bottom picking as Hoop says, bottom picking, fingers dirty etc etc. LOL Hoop

Skol,
Gold as mentioned previously more likely on a large player/insto having to sell.
Some still speculate that gold will return and continue its upward move.
Other market commentators say as we are in the unknown it is best to divide your wealth into quarter being quarter gold, quarter stocks, quarter cash and quarter real-estate or whatever.

Anyway, this aint the Gold Debate thread so I wont go on too much about gold, as I neither promote or demote the metal.

add/edit
ps: Hoop, could be a very smart move as the AUS $ seems to have now broken a major support at 98c with potentially next support at 93.7c

Perhaps folks there is money in shorting the AUD? sure does look like it.

drillfix

23-09-2011, 05:20 PM

Looks like the sectors, Health Care & Con Staples are the best winners today in the sector department.

Mainly money moving into defensive stocks to make this bounce rally look like a type of decoy from the fall?

Financially dependant

25-09-2011, 12:27 PM

should have a bit of relief tomorrow but broken down to lower targets
3614

winner69

25-09-2011, 03:30 PM

mark100

26-09-2011, 12:00 AM

We shouldn't overlook that in early 2009 the ASX200 sank to a PE of 9. It is currently 11.5

ASX earnings back in those days was 380 )whatever they measure that in) and currently they are 340 (so companies not doing to badly)

Ouch on earnings of 340 shouldn't we expect an ASX200 of around 3000 sometime soon? Thats only slightly less than where it went a few years ago ... and earnings are down slightly so 3000 isn't wll that outrageous

Don't forget the ASX is probably still in a secular bear market

Would you mind telling me where you source this earnings number from w69? The majority of large caps that make up the bulk of the All Ords that I can think of are reporting higher earnings than they were in 08/09. TLS and QBE being 2 large caps that are well down

drillfix

26-09-2011, 02:58 AM

Lizard

26-09-2011, 07:19 AM

We shouldn't overlook that in early 2009 the ASX200 sank to a PE of 9. It is currently 11.5

ASX earnings back in those days was 380 )whatever they measure that in) and currently they are 340 (so companies not doing to badly)

Ouch on earnings of 340 shouldn't we expect an ASX200 of around 3000 sometime soon? Thats only slightly less than where it went a few years ago ... and earnings are down slightly so 3000 isn't wll that outrageous

Don't forget the ASX is probably still in a secular bear market

Although PE doesn't incorporate any measure of indebtedness and balance sheet risk. Some of the worst falls of 2008 must have come from the highly-leveraged companies that appeared to have a real chance of complete failure - e.g. CNP, Allco, BNB, MFS (can't remember whether they were in the xjo).

The Big Ease

26-09-2011, 08:35 AM

Good call Lizard.
I think most of the companies which survived the last market rout will present decent opportunities over the next few months.

winner69

26-09-2011, 12:59 PM

Actually that is a good question mark.

And also Winner good post, that is a good observation to note.

Where do you source the data to enable such comparison and is it updated daily, weekly, monthly or yearly?

Also, what other stats would you find to use or how about anybody else with their views, anything that should be significant.

Comes from Colin Nicholson who has this sort of stuff going back zonks ... saves keeping it up yourself eh

For interest sakes the chart attached has ASX All Ords earnings over the last few years. As the original source of Colins numbers is the AFR I'm sure that these would be 'normalised' earnings and would also be actuals (not forecast / projected).

Remember the essence of what the ASX All Ords is worth is more than just earnings - it is what punters are prepared to pay for these earnings. Some say that the ASX PE averages about 15 but that is only tthe average for this century - prior to 2000 it was considerably less - so have things changed to warrant a figure of 15? - I'd say no as the excesses of the current world unwind and things get back to more realistic/sustainable levels

Thats why view anyway - just a rave

Anyway the chart mentioned

drillfix

26-09-2011, 04:05 PM

Good point there KW, with regards to the Dow Transport index. Def one to keep an eye on as everything over there counts and is most likely needed as there are lots of other not so nice pictures.

Folks I tried to post last night my midnight Babble but the ST site seemed to be down for me, anybody else experience this? Ahh well.

It is said that Copper is a proxy for world economic activity. Well, if that is the case then looks like we are all in the S*** by looking at the HGXXXX copper futures chart.

Also, lots of broken supports and down turning EMA's kinda paints the picture of this phase of such bear market we have entered.

Here are the charts as follows from close on last friday:

===================== AUSTRALIA =======================

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/39mx2w2inbnepa5lsa_All-Ords.png

Dollar daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/uqvrmcs1svpi9u60wpbp_Dollar.png

===================== METALS ==========================

Gold daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/1wqjd6v1oiediljeklr6_Gold.png

Silver daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/xw78blv7xwns3cgulum_Silver.png

Copper Futures daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ndrnbqijawc30cq28n89_Copper.png

Crude daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/q5v2tmycqz0ds000qvgr_Crude-Oil.png

===================== US MARKETS =========================

Dow Jones daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/naq13h3zdtcvz380pwkl_DOW.png

S&P500 daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/byriwq8psgikhq4zaw_SP500.png

Nasdaq daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/e876ytiya7p867u7ka_NASDAQ.png

Oz US index daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/p33y6nrm1onoa8k6ij6_AusIndexUS.png

====================== EU & JAPAN ========================

DAX daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/24e6my2acrwa8anxbkys_Germany.png

UK FTSE daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/79v1a1ub68wm8o6drfug_UK.png

CAC daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/vq86uqsuamugzxfqhcyd_France.png

Japan Nikkei daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/vvsjs8zswxuuhzxn6z88_Japan.png

===============================================

EMA REF
13ema
30ema
90ema
200ema

Sorry again for being late folks, but late is better than never and its t here for Reference only.

Oh and here is my sentiment on overall markets: >> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/xf3xo9zosqh1pddurtu1_WallStreetBear.jpg

Cheers for now~!

Lizard

26-09-2011, 05:23 PM

Folks I tried to post last night my midnight Babble but the ST site seemed to be down for me, anybody else experience this? Ahh well.

I've been finding the server dropping out occasionally, but not for very long. If it starts to look a little slow when I hit the "post" button, I go for a quick "select" and "copy" before it all falls into the void!

drillfix

26-09-2011, 05:54 PM

Good move with the select all and copy Liz as I have done many monster posts only to have it wiped out.

Yet saying that ST seems to have added the Auto Save function which is great, although I have never needed it as yet.

With regards to the Site being down, I thought it may have just been me, but decided to run a command prompt with: > ping sharetrader.co.nz -n 1000 which will ping the site a thousand times however I got no reply so decided to just go to bed instead rather than waiting for it to come online again.

Not sure why ST would be down at that time of the morning unless for server maintenance where they host or hackers doing a DOS attack or something.

Anyway, I hope your day is going good there Liz :)

drillfix

26-09-2011, 06:39 PM

Yes KW, there is a sell off in progress.

Global futures gradually turning red also.

As tempted as it can be for many, this is turning into crazy days and it pays to be very selective which I am sure you are but with many others, there are some that are tuning into white wash such as (too many to list right now).

The bear in me tells myself that the sidelines seems safer and the best place to be in the current climate but each to their own.

soulman

27-09-2011, 12:04 AM

You are not shorting Drill? I see the AUD at 0.90 USD soon hence a gain of 7-8 cents at current quote.

Good that you are 99% cash Drill. What's the interest rate on those cash? I am still in some selected stocks but not too exposed like the 2008/2009 GFC. Lessons learned. Risk and money management implemented. Ride big, big wave at end of 2009, 2010 and early this year. Lucky I wasn't wipe out back then and survived.

drillfix

27-09-2011, 12:14 AM

Hi soulman,

No not shorting at present, although a move to US stocks looks appealing as its very easy and more open to taking short, and IB seem to be able to avoid the short sell rule that US markets have in place. Long story what that rule is but it exists and IB have a way around that for those stocks.

Currency short yes, may consider but these are testing times so nothing is certain it seems, there is only risk no matter which way you turn or think about turning. Sitting on the sidelines is quite nice and as I am with IB, the interest rate aint that great as they also take funds out for ASX realtime data that I watch but if not trading every day, I dont use but pay for obviously.

I got pretty creamed after the GFC and its been nothing but a fight back with little or next to nothing.

soulman

27-09-2011, 12:59 AM

Not sure whether to open up the wallet and buy some gold stock. Small buying of course. RMS is looking tasty. IGR and SLR looking a bit beaten. Fair trashing or unjust. It could get worse. I still got some cobwebs to clear from the closet.

drillfix

27-09-2011, 08:16 PM

Grabbed a couple of stocks today soulman but continue to hold 85% cash out, and got hit by a Automated Bot that completely can piss you off just before EOD and then you get such a small fill and pay more for brokerage which is one thing I hate about BOTs.

Here is the All Ords and Australia dollar, with the XAO closing with a huge Engulfing Candle which will be good to signify this as a relief rally has begun although for how long is uncertain.

On with the charts:

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/vtqv52xd90r2z365ncx_All-Ords.png

As mentioned, a large engulfing candle covering the past 2 sessions short term will be positive. As if global markets follow then perhaps we may see a test up to the middle range of the bollinger bands which is also marked on the chart above which is also in between the new lower trading range we recently entered.

Dollar daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/qakcb6d1rejgoxvygqm_Dollar.png

In sync nearly is also the Aussie Dollar giving what could appear to be like a hammer which is near or close to support of the currency which also could be seen as positive

As previous posted here are the ema reference markers:

EMA REF
13ema
30ema
90ema
200ema

Well, a couple of toes to test the temperature so far, lets see what happens tomorrow but fingers on the pulse everyone and lets not become complacent in time of upward moves.

Cheers~!

Financially dependant

28-09-2011, 08:05 AM

Yes it was a convincing rally yesterday with the US markets going well last night it will be interesting if continue above 4100 (all ords)???

3617

may have spoke too soon...watching the DOW drop like a stone now....

drillfix

28-09-2011, 01:27 PM

Your not wrong there FD, US futures turning red and slowly becoming further red, however this can also gyrate however it doesn't matter what US does, I always feel a need to treat this with caution regardless.

Soulman, have you dipped your toes into anything as yet today?

drillfix

28-09-2011, 03:34 PM

Yes indeed KW, good points about elections.

One must wonder though, is this an End of Month window dressing and previous short selling covering type rally.

US futures now red again and following is the FTSE. The DAX seems to be the only one believing or buying its own story.

Still much talk about the Hope of Greece, or Potential of saving Greece when already everybody has confessed Greece will Fall, so what diff does it make whether it does or does not. Its all a sham if you ask me.

soulman

28-09-2011, 03:58 PM

trackers

28-09-2011, 04:06 PM

^^ agree

drillfix

28-09-2011, 04:47 PM

No KW,

IB never would give margin on illiquid stocks, they dont tell ya, but they have a list of qualifying stocks that they will allow you to get margin on.

Also, what they have done is upped their margin requirements for certain types of stocks, although I cant remember off hand which sector it was for as in either Gold Stocks or Finance or Bank stocks.

So I think the stock for margin situation is a bit tighter than previous or originally offered. But then, have you traded illiquid stocks with margin with them?

drillfix

28-09-2011, 04:50 PM

Hi Drill,

Yes, I have EOC at 27 and CAP at 21.5 yesterday. Missed out on all the gold producers stock yesterday. Not sure whether gold will take another hit but even with that, NST, SLR, IGR and RMS will still maintain a nice margin with their cost per ounce.

The volume is a bit low today. Rightly so.

Nice one on EOC soulman.

I like the NST adn RMS charts over the other two, although a concerning technical to that is the EMA crossover that potentially is waiting for some kind of direction, so I would be cautious on which way it commits to.

Saying that, what I really like is the easy 60 and 15 min charts that clearly tell you what side of the trade to be on :)

drillfix

28-09-2011, 05:14 PM

Looking at the Sydney Futures Exchange (SPI) I think the 15 min chart is about to fall over making the 60 min also show weakness.

So it may be a flat close today.

SNFE SPI intraday >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/woknzehoib0hgoeaqdr8_SNFEintraday.png

Time will tell, though I dislike when any confidence gets ripped out under our feet.

soulman

28-09-2011, 07:42 PM

Yep, just got out of EOC for 28.5. The announcement this morning RE: EOC PCI tenement was the catalyst for the rise early this morning. EOC and CLR might be a target for NHC since NHC took over NEC and are fully cashed up.

Might get back in later at a hopefully lower price. There are sellers popping up so no rush.

Anyway, back to the thread, still looking to reduce exposure. Maybe still 25% exposed. Hard to sell the likes of PPT, QBE with the div yield. DTL, MEO and BSA with net cash position.

drillfix

29-09-2011, 01:49 PM

Morning folks,

Here are a couple of charts, one of which yesterdays close of the All Ords and the other an intraday chart of Sydney futures exchange with both a 5 day 15 min chart & a 30 day 60 min chart.

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/w3blbwx6v15yi0s49xs_All-Ords.png

Add today to the above shows a break of intermediate support which means a trip to the lower trading ranges is obviously on the cards whilst the Europe story continually stews in the Pot like the meal that may or may not ever get served.

SPI - SNFE Intraday > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/12ju2t62qkuya9xxga4_SNFE.png

Above is a lead whereby the Hourly chart clearly shows its preparing for another dive downward which also marked on the above chart is the lower highs and also seen is the MACD Histogram negative divergence with signal line preparing to cross in the next 4 hours or so. Will be interesting to see in a couple of days time if we get a Lower Low or a double bottom there.

Well, easy does it today folks and good luck with any scalps or bounce trades and keep and eye on the lower range of the current trading range as a break through that could mean some pretty horrific technicals, yet meanwhile, we may remain in this current trading range until direction is confirmed over Europe.

Cheers~!

whipit

29-09-2011, 02:08 PM

Cheers Drill,

Always appreciated

drillfix

29-09-2011, 02:57 PM

Cheers Drill,

Always appreciated

No worries Whipit, and trade safe there mate.

Looks like Health Care is about 1.3% presently so no doubt Defensive stocks are on a partial move.

drillfix

29-09-2011, 06:47 PM

ASX (xao) seems to be sitting right on intermediate support (4,056), so it appears as if it will close at -40 to -42 approx in the red.

Wow, completely miles off. Amazing what 10 mintues of market time remaining can do.

Goes to show, never 2nd guess the market.

Currently as I type, DOW Futures are in the Green looking good (although that can change quickly) yet the DAX and both the FTSE & CAC are all showing at least -30 in the Red, so conflicting night this evening for global markets.

Hope you all had a good day regardless.

Catch ya later on :)

soulman

30-09-2011, 03:15 AM

In the real world, most specs have 0 LVR on margin lending account. So no problem there. I remember BT used to have 60 to 65% LVR on ABC Learning, Allco Finance and Babcock and Brown. They learn their lessons.

I learn my lesson on ML in the GFC days and capital protection should be the number 1 priority for all investors and traders. Education is vital.

Lizard

30-09-2011, 10:01 AM

Finish on the Dow looks like they're set up to rally it hard tonight into end of quarter?

drillfix

30-09-2011, 12:36 PM

Finish on the Dow looks like they're set up to rally it hard tonight into end of quarter?

Liz, I think its called end of month Window Dressing, or perhaps end of Quarter Window Dressing.

Finger on the pulse for next month though as we bounce around this trading zone.

drillfix

30-09-2011, 04:29 PM

Today is like yesterday, or De ja Vue or something.

Not even gonna try to predict where the close will end except surely somewhere close to intermediate support.

add/edit:

Has anybody seen our good bud Evilroy kicking about? Seems to have been a while since he has posted.

So hope he is well regardless.

Financially dependant

30-09-2011, 05:56 PM

Finish on the Dow looks like they're set up to rally it hard tonight into end of quarter?

Sold out of my positions today on the rally, didn't have the guts to wait for the last hour...:scared:

I don't think the all ords will get above the 4100 resistance mark for a while now so must be down hill from here....but of course only time will tell...

Financially dependant

01-10-2011, 07:48 AM

Sold out of my positions today on the rally, didn't have the guts to wait for the last hour...:scared:

I don't think the all ords will get above the 4100 resistance mark for a while now so must be down hill from here....but of course only time will tell...

3633

Should now head down...IMHO

Hoop

01-10-2011, 10:54 AM

Sold out of my positions today on the rally, didn't have the guts to wait for the last hour...:scared:

...

Good call FD..:)

drillfix

01-10-2011, 03:13 PM

3633

Should now head down...IMHO

Agree FD & Hoop.

I like when others also put their neck on the chopping block, makes me feel Sane, or rational, but then its not really that hard to simply look at the chart and see Lower Highs with a near base forming yet probability now states a return new Lower Lows to continue or expand the lower trading range.

The close of Europe & US all in the red and now everything looks like a dogs dinner to me including the Global Futures (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures)which suggests another tough week a head.

Catch you all later on for some Sunday charts and more banter.

Cheers~!

trackers

01-10-2011, 08:27 PM

Was on the sidelines for quite some time (except for a few core holds) but stupidly jumped in about a fortnight ago as I saw some enticing opportunities. oops.

Whilst im biased, my current thinking is that yes the situation in Europe isn't likely to get better, and yes there's still negligable growth in USA. However, Australia is still growing and still expected to grow; China is still growing near 10% and this is also expected to continue. How far lower can the valuation of companies in ozzie go on the back of euro debt problems? Yes i realise these are famous last words, but fundamentally I think this reasoning is sound...

The other thing I'm starting to see is volumes have completely vanished in the micro/small caps on my watchlists. I'd like to think that this means that the majority likely to exit positions based on worsening Euro debt / US growth&debt issues have already done so.

Having said all this, my thinking that we might be nearing is in no way saying that the market ia going to go the other way - we could see the market bouncing around these levels for god knows how long

We'll see though. Thats the end of my guessing for the night, go Scotland!

bermuda

01-10-2011, 11:04 PM

Trackers,
I am a bit scared about this market. Never been so afraid in fact. But I stubbornly refuse to sell in the hope that the BRIC nations and others can pull the world through what surely will be a testing time. Thos dipsticks Greenspan and Bush sure have some explaining to do.

Gas is the way to go. The same energy for half the cost.

Oil, A Precious Finite Resorce.

ps Scotland the brave. Denied. So close............What an historic win by Tonga. France were crushed.

soulman

02-10-2011, 12:28 AM

Lighten some DTL and sold NMS both for losses on Friday. Selling good performing shares are hard to do. One thing going my way is that I am not buying. Since MEO announce an on-market buyback, I think I can safely keep MEO until they strike some oil and gas.

I think come Monday, with public holiday in the Eastern States, it will be low volume and probably a fall around 70 points.

Go Geelong Cats!!

trackers

02-10-2011, 07:57 PM

Yep Scotland got oh so close, and pity for tonga they didnt take Canada more seriously! Thanks for your thoughts... Interesting to see oil at $80, wonder how those Saudi wells are going these days

drillfix

03-10-2011, 12:39 PM

Oh darn, forgot all about Day Light savings. Zzzzzzz

Time for a coffee folks~!

drillfix

03-10-2011, 02:30 PM

Afternoon there folks,

Thought I would throw up some charts of global markets with close on Friday plus an Sydney Futures intraday chart.

1stly, todays current Futures with 60 min and 15 min charts

SPI - SNFE Intraday > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/jj7fr953qore6m3d7nk_IntraDayFutures.png

The 15 minute is showing a back test of the 13ema with a MACD histogram and signal line potential crossover which would happen should the price rise above the 13ema. Also the hourly clearly shows the sell off in the first hour yet the 13ema starting to decline. I read that as the 15 min will do what it does with its climb, but then decline once the 60 min chart tests the 13ema for another continuation potentially down as it clearly shows the trend downward.

Now on with the daily and weekly Local and Global Markets.

EMA REF
13ema
30ema
90ema
200ema

===================== AUSTRALIA =======================

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/e9tqoi8fpd4ygkk0q9d7_AllOrds.png

Dollar daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/al9yrh8mv63hpr7jmson_Dollar.png

===================== METALS ==========================

Gold daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/n53qtmgnwypthi6h7kz9_Gold.png

Silver daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/6qilcbh0rxv54b63qhah_Silver.png

Copper Futures daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ukcpmwt8utiht5n754r_Copper.png

Crude daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ptcz9a9c1nfos62tnduc_CrudeOil.png

===================== US MARKETS =========================

Dow Jones daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/r20o830wjinbb3hlzad8_DowJones.png

S&P500 daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/zd7y5titf1q7jr95yccx_SP500.png

Nasdaq daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/tygtuw0y0el3tv7lpv_NASDAQ.png

Oz US index daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/frbdzr5m5124nkb2itu_AusIndesUS.png

====================== EU & JAPAN ========================

DAX daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/frbdzr5m5124nkb2itu_AusIndesUS.png

UK FTSE daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/n8admk3a15hxuao6zlaj_UK.png

CAC daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/5hyty42cyil25ge1vxc_France.png

Japan Nikkei daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/fjgxodelv5ixrbm4ldj6_Japan.png

===============================================

Could spend a bit of time babbling on, but most is already obvious so I will drop the babble this morning or afternoon.

Will keep an eye on a few stocks as volumes seem quite low again and the spread in trades are not large so a great deal of sideline watching, or trainspotting on prices of certain stocks.

Well, lets not forget to re-Adjust to day light savings folks. Dont know how many forgot, but as posted, I sure as heck did.

Cheers for now~!

drillfix

03-10-2011, 04:59 PM

Afternoon folks,

Here is another SNFE SPI intraday update.

SPI - SNFE Intraday > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/6uf7w1u1f9myu7ukpoon_SNFEintraday.png

As you can see on the chart, the fake out MACD breakout on the upper top 15 min chart, whereby price touches the 13ema and then collapses clearly giving a false signal to the lower Macd signal and histogram accrodingly.

Keep an eye out for the lower low on the 60 minute chart also as it probably is expected to maintain its downward fall to eventually touch a new Lower Low.

Cheers~!

drillfix

03-10-2011, 07:50 PM

Hey again folks,

Another up to date chart with EOD data for the close of today of our falling XAO.

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/qua2dsoxvpr4xm66cx0_All-Ords.png

What can say, some can say, a good time to buy, some may also say, watch out catching knifes.

There are bargains presenting themselves everywhere, but looking the XAO chart above, should we breech the 3,900 mark then we could end up being in some serious trouble. How serious can it get on top of where we are now? Well, looking more so at the weekly chart to the right I believe we could get down to to 3,710 approx there about.

Of course it sounds ridiculous talking about that now when we have not even broken down past the 3,90x mark so I wont blether on any more.

Looking for some trades, but waking up late today did not help and readjusting to time is tricky for me as I also enjoy watching global markets in the AM hours :P

Have a good evening and hope you folks are all keeping well.

Cheers~!

drillfix

04-10-2011, 02:01 PM

Morning folks,

Just a quick snapshot of the Sydney Futures Exchange intraday charts being the 60 min and the 15 min.

SPI - SNFE Intraday > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/dc89hyqnql5s367kw990_SPIIntraday.png

As you can see an new low now on the 60 min chart and a steep decline on the 15 min.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Bloomberg Futures (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures) continue to show more red to the downside which is not really helping our market much as both DAX, FTSE and the US futures are all red.

Hang Seng not yet started up or come online yet so I presume this will also add reflection to more red for us, or less red for us.

No doubt many will be gasping for a relief rally at some stage, although whatever you do, proceed with caution as we move closer to 3,900 so should the Hang Seng come out on fire then we can expect a breakage potentially setting us into free fall.

winner69

04-10-2011, 02:58 PM

drillfix

04-10-2011, 03:10 PM

Yep Winner, not bad now, near midday.

As shown on the Intraday futures, the 15 minute has broken upward of the 13ema

SPI - SNFE Intraday > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/jtczr31kxcis6teh12n_SPIintraday.png

There could be some relief if the 60 min MACD signal lines crossover as well as the Histogram turning positive.

Aus Dollar completely smashed as well. Fell below 95c a while ago however this signals it could even go as low at 93c approx IMO.

drillfix

05-10-2011, 02:59 AM

Evening folks,

Here are a couple of charts for yesterdays close of the All Ords and the Aus Dollar which also has taken a kicking of recent days.

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/eufgs9augbk3toyy4o7_All-Ords.png

As shown on the chart, price touches softly down and bounces off support close to 3,908 thus keeping us in the current trading range. (at present).

A break through this tomorrow or the next day will see us go into another lower range, as previously posted.

Dollar daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/u0q65o10mgr1ormlqnk_Aus-Dollar.png

Our dollar now that its broken past 96c it seems it will target 0.937c approx so hopefully we can remain above that.

As of typing this, US is red -128 and the DAX closed at approx -150 and the FTSE also red at -144 which doesn't offer a good lead for the US nor us accordingly for tomorrow.

So it looks like another round of red for again so take it easy on some of those scalps or timing positions folks.

Good night and cya all tomorrow.

Cheers~!

winner69

06-10-2011, 06:30 PM

Things are looking pretty good today seeing the end of the world is nigh .... tomorrow will be even better ..... have faith even though October is the month that things really turn to custard if they are going to

The tomorrow was yesterday and it wasn't too bad .... but yesterdays tomorrow was a real boomer eh

The markwts are on a roll .... maybe I shouldn't give up on 5000 by xmas after all

soulman

06-10-2011, 06:38 PM

Wow. Lots of buying today. A frenzy. Reporting season for the big banks other than CBA coming soon in a few weeks time. Damn I just missed out on WBC yesterday.

drillfix

07-10-2011, 12:00 PM

Yes indeed soulman, some stocks just ran away.

Some wild runs the boards yesterday and many stocks now seem Primed on their both daily and weekly MACDs, Williams%Rs, RSI which if by looking at a great deal of stocks, seems set to also aid in a leg up in a Relief Rally.

Reason is set that EU is throwing much liquidity behind its markets, however it was said by one gentleman on Bloomberg Video that has anybody actually saw a Controlled Default? He had not and to a large degree, both the EU and US markets are being orchestrated, though primarily the EU.

Here is yesterdays breakout of the All Ords with the AUD.

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/jgpu17ffflk2zn978g1f_ThursAllOrds.png

Dollar daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/rv37wllfjyba6farsgng_Dollar.png

Now here shown below is Alan Kohler's chart (on ABC) of US consumer spending after all previous post war recoveries. This to me can also present a concern of need for caution as too the smoke of this Greek Bailout.

After all, why will this chart show much lower spending, whilst there are still problems or should I say, still unsolved issues out there to deal with.

US Consumer Spending Lower > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/wqv6gct21rvl8hxrxmk1_UScomsumer.png

Anyway,
Enjoy trades is what I say, but approach longs with caution.

Cheers~!

soulman

07-10-2011, 09:22 PM

U got any action Drill? I have some small bites and still holding CVR bought at 3.6 cents Thursday for next week.

Lucky I didn't short aything. Maybe a good time to short next week.

drillfix

07-10-2011, 10:27 PM

Hi SM,

Good on ya for your entry on CVR. I actually made an entry today on them too, but then exited EOD less brokerage.

Had another 4 trades as well, thought I was going to make some more but never really happened although made a profit on exit, although I still holding a small parcel of NGE which is my only exposure so I guess I expected more but missed the other horses I wanted to be on. PDN KAR etc.

Ahh well, cant win them all, all the time but getting there.

Made a post in another thread regarding the upside or resistance at 4,252 approx. Should there be a failure to break the upside then no doubt we will have another revisit of the downside (again) should it fail to break and hold that resistance. IMO.

Cheers for now :)

Financially dependant

08-10-2011, 08:01 AM

I would agree with the comments above this relief rally looks like it has some legs...

3639

Fridays above average volume action gapped over trend line to break out, I will be looking next week to see if this can be sustainable by retesting tend or resistance line.

drillfix

10-10-2011, 02:39 AM

Good evening folks,

Thought I would post a weekly update of some charts for global markets, metals etc etc with a bit of babble thrown in.

Here the charts as follows:

Yet again if copper is a proxy for world economic activity it still looks like we are in for some trouble, however some of the indicators both daily and weekly could see an upturn as too with gold and silver, as too the AUS Dollar.

The Aussie All Ords has found its way to the top of its current trading range with will be interesting if it breaks out above this into the upper range.
Currently 4,252 is a resistance zone and we could break through on the day but close quite close to that zone.

Looking at Bloomberg's Global Futures (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures) we can see that global markets futures seem to be looking flat which gives our XAO little if any direction, hence as I make and type this post, the SPI 200 is red at -26 so no doubt we will most likely see a mix of some stocks trading flat, and others rising with Takeover talk, and others being partially sold to reduce risk.

Keep an eye on the bell weather stocks for overall major direction and any significant signs in sector rotation, in comparison with other sectors, ie: Health Care, Utilities vs Precious Metals etc etc.

Well, enough of babble, on with the charts.

EMA REF
13ema
30ema
90ema
200ema

===================== AUSTRALIA =======================

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/8e3oapx7ntbizfpoqk66_All-Ords.png

Dollar daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/lkv8hbzor2agjfptxofn_Dollar.png

===================== METALS ==========================

Gold daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/1licku95onmkdrezok5u_Gold.png

Silver daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/sf2ga3h2wczb78jqob_Silver.png

Copper Futures daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/glz14cudfgasal36fn9w_Copper.png

Crude daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/b13llvgb0oxbjlb6r8e_Crude.png

===================== US MARKETS =========================

Dow Jones daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ai17vuek7w4tx78u9xix_DowJones.png

S&P500 daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/skium83r9vqrpb2oqfxy_SP500.png

Nasdaq daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/vskiz54wwz7lbrbgnpi_NASDAQ.png

Oz US index daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ku9qr4ta6ujbtu9o4g5_AusUsIndex.png

====================== EU & JAPAN ========================

DAX daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/z94c2kflibi6kueexiuw_Germany.png

UK FTSE daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/3w3g5yt5irqq30dpisyz_UK.png

CAC daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/80o1vh895kv7rybrt20_France.png

Japan Nikkei daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/e9t0mr6toq7kfuiacli_Japan.png

===============================================

OVERALL GLOBAL PICTURE > http://www.chrisperruna.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/01/012907_bull_bear_fight.jpg

It seems there is still a battle going on between the Bulls and Bears and which until proven, I will no way try to call or pick a bottom as there is still a great deal of unknown information to come out of Europe and what some have called, a controlled default of Greece which sounds ridiculous.

There still remains some opportunities out there though and last week has showed up some significant runs for some stocks, whilst others were deep deep a sleep with little to no interest what so ever.

As much as opportunity lay there, bare in mind that so does Risk. We really need a couple of weeks of higher highs and higher lows globally for the markets to convince themselves.

In the meantime, looking at the pictures, the EMA's and Lower Highs and Lower Lows remain intact.

As usual, finger on the pulse, and lets not quite yet become too complacent as this can be costly falling a sleep on the market.

Well that's it for now, have a great day tomorrow everyone.

Cheers~!

drillfix

10-10-2011, 04:12 PM

Afternoon Folks,

Well, it appears the XAO had a short burst upwards breaking the previous mentioned resistance at 4,252 then hung, then declined.

Where to now? Well, the Global Futures seem positive however our SPI SNFE (sydney futures exchange) seems to be sitting on the fence.

Here is a quick intraday snapshot

SPI - SNFE Intraday > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/xmqd1q3s0e7tngfykpcr_SNFE.png

As above shown on the lower 60 min chart we see teh MACD histogram flattening out and the above signal lines preparing to cross.
The 15 min shown above shows the negative MACD Histogram and signal lines declining with price crossing over below the 13ema yet touching back upwards again.

To me this means remain, flat until further direction. No doubt the end of the day will give us more of a clue.

In the meantime I would think the XAO will close near the proximity of the 4,252 resistance zone there abouts.

Have a good day everyone. :)

Cheers~!

drillfix

10-10-2011, 06:29 PM

Not a bad close for the XAO closing at 4,262.30 which is +37.3 points up in the green which is just above resistance which now should become support, yet as always, time will tell.

drillfix

11-10-2011, 01:46 AM

Evening folks,

Here is an update of today's XAO

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/nt511msfyj5mhv14l7m_All-Ords.png

Nice move with RSI moving upward and MACD and Williams %R on both the daily and weekly charts.

How long it will stay on an upmove is dependent on global forces so to speak.

Gold, Silver and the AUD are also moving upwards which to me which eventually, something has to break.

As I type Bloomberg Global Futures (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures) are showing positive figures both in Europe and US.

Early days though and anything can happen in a week as we have seen previously.

Time to chill and watch a movie.

Cheers~!

trackers

11-10-2011, 03:53 PM

Interesting times, chart-wise.. MSI still negative but rising and some key resistance levels breached... Chart as of yesterday's close:

3644

drillfix

12-10-2011, 02:54 AM

Belg,
Trackers is the man for the alternative Mr. P version of the MSI. Trackers, you have a one to post for the gang here on the ASX thread?

While we are at it,

Here is todays (or yesterdays) All Ordinaries.

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/4bpqsgw94bwf5unwx2c_All-Ords.png

Well, 5 days in a row for Green Candles whilst now sitting above support which is located at 4,252

It seems price want to try to read the 90 day EMA which resides at 4,342 however we now have some Williams %R showing overbought on the daily and weekly although W%R can remain that way indefinitely, although currently Bloomberg Global Futures (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures) is showing some weakness cracking through and who knows how it will end when I wake up, no doubt slightly red to flat.

Perhaps time to take a breather? Maybe,as we sure have had some runs on the boards for many stocks, and there have also been plenty that are prepared to take profits regardless so these sharp spike moves up are not exactly healthy from some points of view.

Anyway, time for sleep, catch you all tomorrow for another day.

Cheers~!

trackers

12-10-2011, 08:56 AM

drillfix

12-10-2011, 11:38 AM

Thanks Trackers, as always, good to see other charts posted.

COLIN

12-10-2011, 11:43 AM

Market will take a bit of a hammering today, with Slovakia having rejected the Euro bailout plans.

(Yes, its a long time since I last popped up here. Been very mindful of "Phaedrus Strategy" and holding off buying, despite several urges at times!)

Xerof

12-10-2011, 11:47 AM

Maybe, but read beyond the headline sensation - Slovakia will likely approve it within 4 days - it's being used to broker new regime

drillfix

12-10-2011, 12:03 PM

drillfix

12-10-2011, 12:19 PM

Think you guys need to get your eyes checked! Here's a new chart with yesterdays close added - One more positive day would see the MSI go into the positives (green) I would think - It is currently still just below 0 but is grey and positive.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/jdrujlku.uf2.jpg

Full size: http://iforce.co.nz/i/jdrujlku.uf2.jpg

Trackers, how can you tell with 1 more positive day and it will turn positive or what are you looking at that to tell you this?

Also, why do you say we need our eyes checked? Can you please share with us what you see that we cannot?

yabster

12-10-2011, 12:34 PM

eyes checked comment - refers to Trackers posting that chart yesterday I think.

trackers

12-10-2011, 01:58 PM

^ No worries belg was just having you on; it was quite ironic was all.

Drill, MSI went from -0.1 to -0.08 in 4 trading days (slightly over 0.2 a day) so didn't take any genius to work out that it could conceivably go up 0.1 on a half decent day to go positive.

I've just played around with the numbers and 10 points would have done it (not that thats going to happen). Note that my version of MSI is ever so slightly weighted more towards the shorter term

drillfix

12-10-2011, 02:17 PM

Note that my version of MSI is ever so slightly weighted more towards the shorter term

Ahh, no worries there then Trackers, thanks for the clarification.

Adding to the potential downside could also be the passing of the Carbon Tax here in Australia.

Lets see how this plays out. And finger on the pulse for some companies who may be eventually affected.

trackers

13-10-2011, 02:02 PM

4305 is the magic figure today for the XAO to go green for the first time since.... April.....

Currently up 29 points to 4295

drillfix

13-10-2011, 07:14 PM

4305 is the magic figure today for the XAO to go green for the first time since.... April.....

Currently up 29 points to 4295

Well, looks like it must have just turned green for ya there trackers as XAO closed at 4,306.00 which is up +39.6

Currently the Bloomberg Futures (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures) are slightly green to flat except the FTSE which is just a tad red.

Tomorrow is another day, so till then have a nice evening everyone.

Back a little later tonight for some EOD charts and bollocks babble to compliment them :P

Cheers~!

trackers

13-10-2011, 08:53 PM

Well yes, umm... nice close there! Yes we are now in positives; the highest MSI recording since April but unfortunately I was a bit blind and we're still in grey (but positive) territory... over 0.4 will move us into green, oops :)

http://iforce.co.nz/i/nrtatxd3.zxq.jpg

full size: http://iforce.co.nz/i/nrtatxd3.zxq.jpg

drillfix

17-10-2011, 05:33 AM

Morning folks,

Missed posting this earlier as I have been quite busy though regardless, here are a few charts to start the week off with daily and weekly's of our XAO and Global markets.

I wont go into too much of the babble as the only thing really to say is our All Ords seems to still have support at 4,252 and we have an EMA crossover, although on that chart an many other global charts are showing overbought on the daily, yet on the weekly MACD and Williams%R setting up for another move up.

Finger on the pulse as always, so here ya go as follows:

EMA REF
13ema
30ema
90ema
200ema

===================== AUSTRALIA =======================

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/s52mtjwq8c5blnbz53x_All-Ords.png

SPI - SNFE Intraday >

Dollar daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/1wo44b89o64whyydgi8_Dollar.png

===================== METALS ==========================

Gold daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/i20qcdrivunwkw7zgn3l_Gold.png

Silver daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/xazdnh6xiy0daurfy28s_Silver.png

Copper Futures daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/og05blk4m5p8yc8zaym7_Copper.png

Crude daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/fnos0t0uavg94rnizbx_Crude.png

===================== US MARKETS =========================

Dow Jones daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/szgcv19dnndyxh6uk6sb_DowUS.png

S&P500 daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/nhiq68memf0bfzqec7ge_SP500US.png

Nasdaq daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/4rlsc2acmdj81a2r9g8w_NASDAQ.png

Oz US index daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/nsvr2iqsugt35d0k3vtr_AusIndexUS.png

====================== EU & JAPAN ========================

DAX daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/1pc487rfkq9qqqseldcs_Germany.png

UK FTSE daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/v267a7vaud6a8q7a7e0_UK.png

CAC daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/00vag2aw0n0loio9003a_France.png

Japan Nikkei daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/8k6gn0f5t6k5yt58609r_Japan.png

===============================================

It seems we have a positive lead today for the All Ords with closes in the US and EU being green along with current Global Futures (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures) showing plenty more green also for the DOW, DAX, FTSE etc etc which could see us touching the top of the upper bollinger bands on the XAO chart, yet who knows as its best to take each day for what it is and flow with the tide so to speak.

Well, there ya have it.

Cheers for now~!

drillfix

17-10-2011, 03:42 PM

Interesting days,

Markets now rising "on hopes" of this European debacle.

Meanwhile, protests against corporate greed seem to be extending all over the world some with more impact than others, but still growing.

Reporting season on the way in the US and stacks of AGMs coming up with many Co in Aus.

The ASX now has its competition Chi-X that has been given a start up date for the end of this month Oct 2011.

What this will mean initially is Live Data prices will be the first thing to become competitive as there has been a Monopoly on this by the ASX for ever since its creation.

Also, a variety of fee's and everything else the ASX offers will in competition from Chi-x so this can only be good for traders and companies alike.

The Big Ease

17-10-2011, 08:02 PM

trackers

17-10-2011, 08:37 PM

Nearly there...!

http://iforce.co.nz/i/jvptnv44.b4j.jpg

http://iforce.co.nz/i/jvptnv44.b4j.jpg

drillfix

17-10-2011, 11:15 PM

Rising hopes about the debt? Misplaced IMO. We are heading for a recession in much of Europe and the US too.
The market will wake up soon enough. Sucker's rally, but that is just a guess. Looking strong technically.

As for the "occupy" protests, they have only begun. Wait until unemployment kicks in over the enxt six months.
With a fixed point of protest and the unemployed nowhere to go, things are going to get very interesting.

Power to the people.

TBE,

I think you have taken me out of context. I should have probably pointed out that, "the Markets rising on hopes" thing, is something I wrote from having taken that from the media. I was not referring that, Hope is going to save us.

Personally most times I take each day for what it is, yet in the back of my mind even on this upswing, I completely agree with you on where we "actually could be headed" and the type of rally this is, because there still remains much "uncertainty".

Anyhow, sorry for my poor use of grammar...lol

Trackers,
Thanks again for you TMSI :)

Financially dependant

19-10-2011, 07:00 AM

Looks like the all ords is rolling over again, it respected the long term down trend....
3664

drillfix

20-10-2011, 01:10 PM

Morning folks,

Here is a midweek chart of the All ords

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/2k82h9tw5b8596yfe3jb_All-Ords.png

Price yesterday sat just above support and had a slight bounce. Yet there is a saying that if something is not going to continue upward, then it is sure to fall, hence the move today which also had taken a lead from the US.

Also looking at the chart above shows us how price makes a move up to the EMA line (twice) like a magnet, and then repels which should see retest the lower EMA or to test the middle of the Bollinger band range which can be seen with slight darker dots than the bb background colour.

Some divergence in the MACD histogram towards the centre line as too the Williams %R will no doubt be heading downward for a downturn.
RSI still remains above 50 and any break below the value of 40 would be considered Negative.

Meanwhile, the weekly chart shows a tad of positive MACD Histogram (probably gone today though) with signal line preparing to cross for an upmove.
Williams %R on the weekly also had also been showing a move upward which now could have turned down on the weekly.
Price on the weekly has run up to actually touch the 13ema which has not happened since the previous 2 times in approx Sep & Aug.
Currently the weekly shows price above support and should tomorrow also be a down turn then support becomes resistance as it will show on the daily on todays chart which is yet to be posted.

As I type below is a snapshot of the morning SPI or SNFE (Sydney Futures Exchange).

SPI - SNFE Intraday > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/rht9yo6uopd5lay16ydv_SPIintraday.png

The chart above shows you a 60 minute and a 15 min chart combined as of 11:03am today.

Clearly we can see on the 15 min a breakdown on Tuesday just gone and the 60 minute chart now confirming a down move also.
These charts with live data can be very helpful in spotting potential divergence in the market so if a huge fall begins then take some risk off the table.

Having typed all that, I dont really see what if any fuss is all about because again, as I type the Bloomberg Futures (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures) seems to be showing both the US and DAX and FTSE in the green.

Well, thats enough babble from me, have a great day folks.

Cheers~!

winner69

21-10-2011, 10:05 AM

drillfix

21-10-2011, 12:33 PM

I believe that the ASX is still in a secular bear market (ie declining PEs rather than price) and these sort of bear markets don't conclude until we have PEs well below 10 for a few quarters.

This is what PE's look like over the last few decades - is this time any different?

Thanks for the PE chart Winner.

Its great to have the whole scenario viewed from a complete different angle as you have done. More food on the table so so speak.

With regards to the secular bear market, I would be inclined to very much agree with you here. If I were to make up my own words to what type of market I feel we are in it would sound something like "Declining Flat Slightly Rising Declining Market" lol.

I feel this whole Euro kettle type event is eventually going to come to a boil and at some stage completely spill over. In the meantime it seems the are now doing what the US has done for so long which has been Kick the Can down the road.

Looks like a flat type of day although the SNFE 15 min chart has broken upward above the 13ema although the 60 is only testing the lower part of the 13ema. Global futures are showing the US only slightly green or flat with the DAX and FTSE in the red.

Guess we will see how Japan and China come out swinging for a better indication.

drillfix

21-10-2011, 05:19 PM

Afternoon folks,

Anybody else out there finding these choppy waters annoying?
In, out, no in, no out, whatever.

Time to call it the day for me today as I have a few other IT computer type related tasks to take care of.

Here is a yesterdays XAO showing a break of support (now resistance). It seems that the 4,252 line/zone seems to be a temporary magnet for the Aussie main index which as I type now sits just below 4,200

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ahwmldz4fi1rx8hmksx_AllOrdsThurs.png

Meanwhile, it can be shown in the following chart which shows both a 6day 15 min and 30 day 60 min charts some of the chop we are going through showing lower lows being created on the 15 min thus eventually the 60 tracking to the lower part of the 13ema.

SPI - SNFE Intraday > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/hf5qhvvg1r5j77k750dk_SydneyFutures.png

As I type Bloomberg Futures (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures) shows the US slightly green to flat and some divergence in the EU between the Red DAX and the Green FTSE.

In the meantime keep your thoughts coming on US and the EU as it really has the potential to turn into a dogs dinner.

Well, have a nice evening a head folks and catch up later this weekend for some babble.

Cheers~!

winner69

21-10-2011, 08:13 PM

Nicholson's data for September has the All Ords on a PE of 11.45 (the All Ords was 4070 on Sep 30th)

Implied earnings are as at sep are 6% higher than June and 23% higher than a year ago (Sep 10). So the companies on the ASX are doing very well earnings wise.

Even though earnings are 23% than a year ago the ASX All Ords has fallen by 12% - as a result of the market PE falling from 16 a year ago to the 11.45 this September. just shows that earnings ain't everything eh, market sentiment (what people are prepared to pay for a buck of earnings) is essentially the key driver of the market

I believe that the ASX is still in a secular bear market (ie declining PEs rather than price) and these sort of bear markets don't conclude until we have PEs well below 10 for a few quarters.

This is what PE's look like over the last few decades - is this time any different?

The change in market sentiment has had a huge impact on the ASX this year ... from January

The year started with the All Ords at 4847 .... earnings are up and if the ame PE applied now the All Ords would be 5650 (gurus like Oliver think like this and you can see where he gets his 5500 odd from eh)

Today the All Ords is just over 4200 - down 25% from where it would be if market sentiment (ie PE) hadn't changed

So even though more money is being made shareholders have had an abysmal year

Just goes to show you can do all the fundamental analysis under the sun to calculate discounted cash flows and fair value and intrinsic value but at the end of the day it counts for nothing as changes in market sentiment are the real drivers of the market (and won't create another furore by saying how you can see this changing)

Bugger eh - company profits up 16% plus but the market taken away 25% cause everybody is more risk adverse or whatever is driving the change in sentiment ... all in 9 months and a bit

drillfix

22-10-2011, 05:38 AM

Wow, DAX and FTSE completely had a party today it seems.

The DOW also on a roll as well.

But honestly, sometimes these people will do anything to make money some way.

On CNN Money, with headlines like: "Stocks rally, but Europe better get it right" I mean, honest to buggery, as if folks are going to start counting their chickens.

I guess the ice is still thin and the cracks are still there, and we all dont know how far we will get before the cracks start to break.

winner69

22-10-2011, 09:19 AM

The change in market sentiment has had a huge impact on the ASX this year ... from January

The year started with the All Ords at 4847 .... earnings are up and if the ame PE applied now the All Ords would be 5650 (gurus like Oliver think like this and you can see where he gets his 5500 odd from eh)

Today the All Ords is just over 4200 - down 25% from where it would be if market sentiment (ie PE) hadn't changed

So even though more money is being made shareholders have had an abysmal year

Just goes to show you can do all the fundamental analysis under the sun to calculate discounted cash flows and fair value and intrinsic value but at the end of the day it counts for nothing as changes in market sentiment are the real drivers of the market (and won't create another furore by saying how you can see this changing)

Bugger eh - company profits up 16% plus but the market taken away 25% cause everybody is more risk adverse or whatever is driving the change in sentiment ... all in 9 months and a bit

Conversely though we shouldn't overlook that when markets rally or recover (ie better sentiment) one gets a double whammy and disproportionate gains - both from growing profits and earnings multiple expansion

So some hypothetical numbers - say All Ords was 4200 at beginning of year on a PE of 11.5 (like it is now) .... earnings are up 16% (has happened) ... All Ords would have increased to 4872 (the 16%) .... but if the PE expanded to 16 (actually was at the start of the year) the All Ords would be 5843 .... jeez another 20% on the top of the earnings growth.

So a 40% gain on earnings growth of 16% .... the complete opposite of what has happened since the beginning of this year where market down 15% on earnings growth of 16%

Seems to suggest buy and hold is a lost cause (at a market or well diversified level) ... excessive gains come from playing the ups and downs of the market ... and that doesn't mean it has to be day or short term trading ... the changes in market sentiment can play out over many months and even years sometimes

winner69

22-10-2011, 12:30 PM

US Fed also is hinting at more QE ...

Thats not always good news is it Belg ... will only prolong the agony

See the US Leading Diffusion Index has dipped into territory that suggests that the US is either in or about to enter another (official) recession

drillfix

23-10-2011, 03:59 PM

With the US now suggesting to pull out of Iraq by December this year only leaving a few thousands, this means huge savings whilst yet this also could bring more unemployment as well so its a double bladed sword.

Of course, anything to control the spending is a benefit to the US, but printing more money I would view as continuing to kick the can down the road, however buying time seems to be what it is all about for both US and the EU. Meaning yes there will be a meltdown but lets try to control how it happens regardless whether it happens, which that alone costs countless more which seems more ridiculous, IMO.

Some more charts later.

trackers

25-10-2011, 11:54 AM

NASDAQ's gone into the black for the year.. .DOW is down 1%

ASX All Ords down 15%

drillfix

25-10-2011, 01:31 PM

Morning folks, and congrats to all you guys and the All Blacks for the win of the RWC, well done :)

Back to markets,

Here are a few charts of yesterdays All Ords, Today's SNFE and a ECB stat chart taken from ABC news finance which is of interest.

EMA REF
13ema - 30ema - 90ema - 200ema

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/veilixiaukzazlkhcqpr_All-Ords.png

As shown in the above chart, price rises up to near touch the declining 90 day EMA in the past sessions and ran out of puff in yesterday's relief rally.

No doubt taking profits is the name of the game in these markets so IMO one must be careful in these markets as for other not just technicals but what could be called conflict of stories that seem to be floating around here and there.

SPI - SNFE Intraday > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/3ybdejr26zable99qs29_SydneyFutures.png

Above, here is a quick 60 min and 15 min charts of a snap shot of the Sydney Futures exchange which shows a Lower High on the 60 min 30 day chart with some negative MACD histogram divergence below that. This no doubt may show that it may be running out of puff, but who knows, midday news may give it another kick, with even more conflicting news...LOL

ECB Lending in Europe > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/j7qeigqx40floj19oorx_ECBLending.png

I came across this chart on ABC finance news which shows the European ECB Bank Lending by size of banking sector.

It clearly shows Greece at the top, and below that Ireland, then Portugal also up there and potentially of concern, then with Italy and Spain just above France.

Goes to show that there could still yet to be some more can kicking to be done up the track a bit.

Well, that is a bit of babble done for the morning.

Have great day ~!

winner69

25-10-2011, 01:33 PM

NASDAQ's gone into the black for the year.. .DOW is down 1%

ASX All Ords down 15%

and that Hang Seng thing down 20%

drillfix

25-10-2011, 01:49 PM

and that Hang Seng thing down 20%

LOL winner, that Hang Seng thing. Fear not as its not a thing, but an index :)

As shown HERE (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hang_Seng_Index) ~!

drillfix

26-10-2011, 12:29 AM

Evening folks,

Just an updated daily of the Aussie All Ords index which is shown as follows:

EMA REF
13ema - 30ema - 90ema - 200ema

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/sh1i567zlwnn5azkrsvf_All-Ords.png

As stated previously, that 90 day EMA seems magnetic to attract price up to touch it and then in accordance with rejection, falls back downward.

It seems that the approximate 4,252 support / resistance line has had quite a bit of traffic across it over the past 8 something times of crossing and touching that it is a pretty popular zone for the market to breath, take in whats happening and then react either up or down so to me it bares significance and acts like a proxy for market potential direction that never goes too much higher, or too much lower. (not sure if that makes sense but what the heck hey).

Technically, another couple of points to note are the over bought Williams %R and the MACD histogram negative divergence on the daily, however it seems that RSI remains nominal to positive just above the 50 point mark. I am under the impression the daily wants again to test the centre of the Bollinger Band marking, which could be on the cards as the daily starts to show a weakeness.

The Weekly on the other hand shows medium term positive move upward with weekly price breaking above the 13ema line, which is has not been above that lowest of the EMA lines since April 2011. It too remains above the 4,250 support/res line and in opposition to my call on the daily, seems like it also wishes to move to the centre point of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart to the right.

MACD histogram has just also became positive with negative signal lines also just crossed and a higher move upward on the Williams %R indicator.
RSI on the other hand is above 40 sitting at 45.196 yet still remains below the 50 mid line.

Which chart to lead from? The short term daily, or the medium term weekly?
I reckon which ever lead we get from the global markets will dictate which one will prevail out of both of these, yet consistency will be the prime factor in the direction as we are currently stuck in the Chop or in a Range.

As I this post, the Bloomberg Global Futures (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures) are showing Aussie Futures at +32 points and the US is slightly in the green as well as Germany's DAX currently green at +70 points and UK's FTSE also showing +16.5 points in the green.

Cheers for now folks and have a great day tomorrow~! :)

percy

27-10-2011, 11:54 AM

Hey trackers,Is that handsome looking fella photographed at Sergio's Merivale openning, in November issue of Avenues you.?

drillfix

27-10-2011, 12:17 PM

ASX currently unavailable due to technical problems at the Exchange.

Above is a message I got from IB.

Although, also viewing CommSec, the prices are mixed up their too, ie: AUT buy $3.02 sell $2.69, so whats

Orchestration or does the ASX need to lift its game with its maintenance game? Some hungover technician pulled out the wrong RJ45 perhaps?

percy

27-10-2011, 12:28 PM

I see it as your opportunity to help out both both buyer and seller.Easy money.!!! lol.

drillfix

27-10-2011, 12:35 PM

I see it as your opportunity to help out both both buyer and seller.Easy money.!!! lol.

Was more thinking that it may have something to do with European summit news.

Even with Greece being in the spotlight, we now have Italy stepping into this spotlight as well, which even if they get past Greece, the cats are coming out of the bag now 2 at a time and not just one.

I find that with the amount of money spent on redundancy or technological computing equipment and networks for the exchange, there surely must be an orchestrated reason to why this "unavailable status" currently being set.

drillfix

27-10-2011, 12:42 PM

40 Minutes now and still nothing to "Why".

Meanwhile the news flows in from EU summit within the last hour which also is not looking too good by viewing this google link:

http://www.google.com.au/#q=european+summit+news&hl=en&cr=countryAU&tbs=ctr:countryAU,qdr:h&prmd=imvnsu&source=lnt&sa=X&ei=tpmoToWzLamaiQfDhvSnDg&ved=0CA0QpwUoAQ&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.,cf.osb&fp=e41b5a552c74ab23&biw=1066&bih=981

h2so4

27-10-2011, 12:50 PM

So what will they call this????? Not Global surely???

NTC National Technical Crises :)

Hoop

27-10-2011, 01:00 PM

SYDNEY (MarketWatch) -- ASX Ltd. (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ASX?countrycode=AU&link=MW_story_quote), operator of the Australian stock exchange said Thursday that trade production has stopped due to technical difficulties.

drillfix

27-10-2011, 01:20 PM

Must be stopped?

I never knew it started, or if it did, it never started for too long:

Commsec update message:

===================================
IMPORTANT NOTICE – UNPLANNED ASX OUTAGE
27 Oct 2011

ASX are currently experiencing market-wide data connection issues. No trading is possible as a result.

The market is in enquiry mode until this technical problem is solved.

The ASX is currently working to resolve this issue. We will advise you as soon as trading has returned to normal.
===================================

Looks like maybe a day to mow the lawn or walk the dog if you have one people.

airedale

27-10-2011, 01:23 PM

Thought that something was awry. The stockness site is light on info and prices.

drillfix

27-10-2011, 02:50 PM

Yeah airedale,

Still some funny stuff going on, I cannot see how some, if any trades are going through at all when there is a complete distortion in the market let alone any solution to Europe or information wise.

Prices on commsec turn into all Zero's and now IB is showing No Bid or Ask and only what volume that has happened for whatever stock has traded.

Perhaps a symbolic sign ~!

drillfix

27-10-2011, 03:55 PM

Corporate

27-10-2011, 04:31 PM

Ok old news but still recent:

UPDATED - IMPORTANT NOTICE – MARKET WILL GO INTO PRE-OPEN AT 1:40PM
27 Nov 2011

Updated 1:30pm 27th October

MARKET WILL GO INTO PRE-OPEN AT 1:40PM AND THE MARKET WILL OPEN AT 2PM.

DF I placed an order for NGE about 5 mins ago and it hasn't gone through. Any ideas on this?

Cheers

update, sorted

drillfix

27-10-2011, 05:35 PM

Sorry for the late post Corp.

Walked away in frustration and then came back to find the market up 100 points in the green.

Although take note that the market bell still rings at 4pm ASX Sydney Time~!

winner69

28-10-2011, 06:20 AM

Now the world (or at least Europe) solved all its problems (yeah right) the markets will be on fire again

That 5000 for the All Ords by Cristmas a sure thing now .... and most boats rise on rising tide ....

trackers

28-10-2011, 09:17 AM

Yesterday MSI turned green for the first time since April and this change of trend is a clear buy signal.

Link to full size pic: http://iforce.co.nz/i/1h1cxrjr.ywg.jpg

http://iforce.co.nz/i/1h1cxrjr.ywg.jpg

gonzo56

28-10-2011, 09:32 AM

Yesterday MSI turned green for the first time since April and this change of trend is a clear buy signal.
Cheers trackers, exciting! :t_up:

trackers

28-10-2011, 10:14 AM

Cheers trackers, exciting! :t_up:

You're welcome :)

Copper has absolutely dominated overnight:

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=HG&cot=085692&p=d1

airedale

28-10-2011, 11:25 AM

"Copper has absolutely dominated overnight:"

Hi Trackers, should be positive for YTC amongst others.

drillfix

02-11-2011, 07:16 PM

Afternoon folks,

Well, what a day hey, and lookie where we closed today. Yep, right back at support again.

Seems like the XAO has traded in the upper range for the past few weeks or so and not entered into the lower part of the range until as mentioned above, closing on support.

Dow futures currently showing a bit of green as is the UK's FTSE although Germany's DAX is red as hamburger meat.

Will post a chart later on tonight showing the EOD XAO chart to clarify the close for those that enjoy the banter.

kiwiwim

02-11-2011, 08:58 PM

drillfix

03-11-2011, 03:43 AM

Will post a chart later on tonight showing the EOD XAO chart to clarify the close for those that enjoy the banter.

Evening folks,

Sorry for the late post with the chart, but better late than never so as below, here is yesterdays All Ords chart.

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/p3epw8gt4qi14xp0uzc_All-Ords.png

As you can see on the above chart, price sits or closed right on support at 4,251x

Also it appears the US like their Job reports and currently has moved into the Green, as is, partially FTSE and DAX also green.

The daily shows the XAO like its due for a downturn, however it could tread water again until some more direction or negative press effects it, so we can expect some bouncing and breaking of the infamous 4,252 zone (again).

Well, that's enough babble for now so catch you all tomorrow.

Cheers~!

trackers

03-11-2011, 09:11 AM

Hi Trackers
How did you get the current graph for the "Phradeus Market Strength Indicator".
I got cold feet a few weeks ago and sold most of my oil and gas shares. Currently still hanging in with BOW.
Although I find the European debt problems worrying, what got me was the picture in Time Magazine of hundreds of completed empty apartment blocks in China.
Worried that we could get a property bubble in China. However looking at Phradeus graph the market does not seem to worry.

Hey kiwiwim long time no see.. Over a period of posts (plus a couple of PM's) Phaedrus pretty much provided the metrics he used for the MSI indicator... I use the same charting programme he does (Metastock) so I've created the formula + the behind the scenes stuff (expert advisor) and apply it to the All ords chart (amongst others) to keep it running. So its my chart, my data, with his indicator overlaid

Note I don't claim that its exactly the same, but the differences are more or less negligable.

I'm a bit worried about world growth too, but I think that a cooldown in Europe and China is already factored in with interest into the ASX in particular

Hoop

03-11-2011, 10:02 AM

Hi Trackers
How did you get the current graph for the "Phaedrus Market Strength Indicator".
I got cold feet a few weeks ago and sold most of my oil and gas shares. Currently still hanging in with BOW.
Although I find the European debt problems worrying, what got me was the picture in Time Magazine of hundreds of completed empty apartment blocks in China.
Worried that we could get a property bubble in China. However looking at Phradeus graph the market does not seem to worry.

Worry is an emotion..and "Emotion kills"
Replace worry with caution because that is where we are at with the ALLORDS atm.
Optimism is also an emotion and with one little rally the excited longer term investor jumps in trying to catch the perceived bottom forgeting that the AllOrds is still a Bear market.

Investing in bear markets requires a different set of Strategies to that of a Bull Market... the safest medium/long term investing strategy is to stay out...Phaedrus MSI is set up especially with the medium to long term investor in mind. Short and very short term investors would not use his indicator.

Before getting carried away with this volatile market (a bear market trait) and Phaedrus MSI showing a hint of green, have a look here POST #70 on this thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6971-All-Ords-Index./page5)
You will notice on Phaedrus chart that in the early stages of a Bear market 2008 there was a convincing sucker rally (corrections) enough to turn the MSI green but only for a brief time.

Phaedrus MSI works as long as you adhere to its principles when The MSI goes from green to red buying is strictly prohibited and all sell signals immediately acted upon...Hands up those who do this:t_up:

Disc 20% stocks ...80% cash...Would be better of if I had been 100% cash

drillfix

03-11-2011, 01:03 PM

Worry is an emotion..and "Emotion kills"
Replace worry with caution because that is where we are at with the ALLORDS atm.
Optimism is also an emotion and with one little rally the excited longer term investor jumps in trying to catch the perceived bottom forgeting that the AllOrds is still a Bear market

Excellent words there Hoop, and a good reminder to many that probability of this is extremely high until further evidence both technically and fundamentally both show otherwise.

Investing in bear markets requires a different set of Strategies to that of a Bull Market... the safest medium/long term investing strategy is to stay out.

Yes again indeed Hoop, different strategies. Plus not all stategies are equal or should be applied for everybody. Meaning, my strategy will not work with Joe Investors strategy or Jose's with Sam's strategy etc etc.

Disc 20% stocks ...80% cash...Would be better of if I had been 100% cash

Not bad yet could be worst. Though depends on what your holding there hoop.

soulman

04-11-2011, 03:26 PM

Judging by Hoops choice of words Drill, I would say the 20% stock can't be doing all that well.

I mean I got suckered in a number of trades recently as well but will today offload some banks due to double dip. ie Ave. down that works thank god.

drillfix

08-11-2011, 07:16 PM

Hi folks,

I saw this link yesterday reading HC and never thought much of it, but I wondered then why is ShareTrader not on this list???

Link as follows: >>> http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html

Or are we a secret society no to be confused with Rampers Paradise ....LOL

What ever you do, dont vote for HC as that is over (and under) moderated ramper's paradise :P

I would vote if ST had a mention, so can somebody give them a mention so we all can vote?

whirly

09-11-2011, 02:07 PM

I thought we were a secret society of intelligent investors and traders. I'd like to keep it that way. If it attracts all the HC types we'll drown in the drivel.

What he said...

drillfix

09-11-2011, 02:12 PM

I thought we were a secret society of intelligent investors and traders. I'd like to keep it that way. If it attracts all the HC types we'll drown in the drivel.

Agreed, the last thing needed here on ST is Hotcopper type dribble~!

Just thought that some recognition for Share Trader was in order that's all, yet not really a good way at all to run a secret society ehhh..LOL

trackers

16-11-2011, 02:35 PM

Update at close yesterday, hanging in there ...

http://iforce.co.nz/i/l5hj2smx.b2j.jpg

Full version: http://iforce.co.nz/i/l5hj2smx.b2j.jpg

sharer

16-11-2011, 08:00 PM

Thanks Tracker. We haven,t said much but i'm sure quite a few of us appreciate your efforts in posting the occasional MSI updates.

Corporate

16-11-2011, 08:46 PM

I'm gettting very nervious about the EU situation and have been selling down stocks. Now only holding AJM, IDC, MEO and NZO

drillfix

16-11-2011, 10:31 PM

Thanks Tracker. We haven,t said much but i'm sure quite a few of us appreciate your efforts in posting the occasional MSI updates.

Here Here sharer, indeed its a good Trackers posts it as with keeps us all thinking on multiple angles.

I'm gettting very nervious about the EU situation and have been selling down stocks. Now only holding AJM, IDC, MEO and NZO

I can relate to that Corp.

Have taken a couple of positions in about 3 stocks even though having the feeling of an inevitable EU crisis still going to drag us down.

Looking at previous downturns with the EU the stocks I chose seem to have had little effect with previous EU down moves influence on the XAO.

All things being equal, all the talk over there in the EU and changes to Heads of countries still does not change the facts nor give them a cure, so no doubt, there is more pain to come.

Even the All Ords is in a range bound position as it has been since the August decline to lower levels so no surprise there about where we are currently at, in which case I am expecting another test of the 4,252 level at some stage for the XAO. Should support be broken then we should have some ready plans for lower prices all around. (IMO)

Will post some charts hopefully this weekend with a mix of indexes.

drillfix

18-11-2011, 03:08 PM

in which case I am expecting another test of the 4,252 level at some stage for the XAO. Should support be broken then we should have some ready plans for lower prices all around. (IMO)

Well, that didn't take long to get there by just touching it today and sitting above support now.

Depending what happens will depend on a few upcoming moves.

More charts as mentioned a little later~!

tricha

22-11-2011, 03:31 PM

Well, that didn't take long to get there by just touching it today and sitting above support now.

Depending what happens will depend on a few upcoming moves.

More charts as mentioned a little later~!

A good spot to continue this discussion, we have some clouds moving in from the West.

U sound like that earthquake guy down in CH Ch, Mr Ring, give me a break!

U have not a clue what will happen with Beach and neither do I, all I know it is fundamentally cheap.

Name one share u reckon is cheap based on T\A, I'll soon tell you what cloud you are on.

drillfix

22-11-2011, 03:46 PM

A good spot to continue this discussion, we have some clouds moving in from the West.

U sound like that earthquake guy down in CH Ch, Mr Ring, give me a break!

U have not a clue what will happen with Beach and neither do I, all I know it is fundamentally cheap.

Name one share u reckon is cheap based on T\A, I'll soon tell you what cloud you are on.

Tricha, how does shove a Solidified Rain cloud up your arse sound?

tricha

26-11-2011, 11:02 AM

Tricha, how does shove a Solidified Rain cloud up your arse sound?

Looks like we are having a Solidified Rain cloud, up all our arses.:eek2:

The big picture does not look particually good, with Australia a mining based economy, with its manufacturing ripped to pieces.
Everyone was talking 2012 a year of gloom, it's here early. Cash is King this month.

METALS-Copper posts 4th weekly fall on global demand fearsFri Nov 25, 2011 6:52pm GMT

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* Deepening euro zone debt crisis spurs copper demand fears * Aluminium under pressure as financing deals falter * Coming up: U.S. new home sales Monday By Frank Tang and Susan Thomas NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Copper fell on Friday on adollar rally, as the industrial metal notched a fourth consecutiveweek of losses on global demand fears amid a deepening euro zonesovereign debt crisis. Highlighting global recession worries caused by the European debtcontagion, Italy paid a record 6.5 percent to borrow money over sixmonths, sparking a sell off in global markets. The S&P 500 indexposted its worst weekly performance in two months. "European demand for copper is falling off the face of the earthright now. There are also concerns over China's slowdown. All ofthose factors are contributing to the ugly bear channels on coppercharts, with the metal trading below key moving averages," said FrankMcGhee, head precious metals trader of Integrated Brokerage ServicesLLC.Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange ended at$7,230 a tonne, down from a last bid of $7,265 a tonne on Thursday.LME copper lost around 4 percent this week and touched a one-monthlow of $7,100.25 on Thursday. U.S. copper futures for December delivery settled down 90cents at $3.27 a lb. Volume was 25 percent above its 30-day normdespite an early U.S. market close in observance of the ThanksgivingDay holiday. Four consecutive weeks of falls in copper have wiped close to 9percent off the price of copper in the month to date. It is tradingaround 24 percent lower on the year. Investor anxiety remained high in Europe even though France andGermany agreed on Thursday to stop arguing over whether the EuropeanCentral Bank should do more to rescue markets in the 17-nationcurrency bloc. Three-month aluminium ended at $1,993 a tonne from a lastbid of $2,018.15. The price has been hovering close to its lowestsince July last year of $1,982.25. "Aluminium is demonstrating the worst fundamentals at theminute," said Natixis analyst Nic Brown. "In the here and now withwhat's going on in the financing side, aluminium is more vulnerablethan other metals." Traders have said more than 1 million tonnes of global aluminiumstocks are expected to be released from financing deals as credittightens. Reflecting tight credit conditions, an executive at British-basedtrading house Stemcor told Reuters metals trading companies faceincreasing funding costs and counterparty risk as the banks' fundingcrisis threatens to spread to the industrial sector. In other metals, tin closed at $20,700 from $20,350 andbattery material lead ended at $2,004 from $1,992. Zinc closed at $1,910 from $1,888. Nickel did nottrade at the close, but bid at $16,950, down from a close of $17,075on Thursday.Metal Prices at 1:00 EST (1800 GMT) Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2010 Ytd Pct move COMEX Cu 327.00 -0.90 -0.27 444.70 -26.47 LME Alum 1991.00 -32.00 -1.58 2470.00 -19.39 LME Cu 7230.00 -10.00 -0.14 9600.00 -24.69 LME Lead 2003.00 11.00 +0.55 2550.00 -21.45 LME Nickel 16950.00 -125.00 -0.73 24750.00 -31.52 LME Tin 20700.00 350.00 +1.72 26900.00 -23.05 LME Zinc 1909.00 21.00 +1.11 2454.00 -22.21 SHFE Alu 15810.00 -70.00 -0.44 16840.00 -6.12 SHFE Cu* 53590.00 -850.00 -1.56 71850.00 -25.41 SHFE Zin 14835.00 -190.00 -1.26 19475.00 -23.83** Benchmark month for COMEX copper* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZNSHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07

drillfix

26-11-2011, 04:48 PM

Agreed Tricha, not really so Rosie at all really is it.

Good we can agree on somethings anyway and sorry for my lame reply to you previously.

Entrep

26-11-2011, 05:12 PM

Anyone got an update of that Phaerdraus market strength chart?

Cheers

drillfix

26-11-2011, 05:30 PM

Not hard to guess that red would be the MSI colour having watched the previous supports broken down.

Of course, imo~!

drillfix

28-11-2011, 04:37 PM

Anybody else see this.

Must have been a huge dump on many stocks and a surge downward on the Sydney Futures Exchange as shown in the intraday chart below:

SNFE Intraday >> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/xqm3x0um29qcd5v92ejq_SPI.png

The 13ema completely smashed adn watching my IB account I saw a couple of stocks make a sudden slump.

Anybody else notice this? Perhaps some funds taking profits? Or more news of the EU kind being fished out?

drillfix

28-11-2011, 05:24 PM

Sounds like a viable possibility there Belg.

Market seemed to bounce back a while after that happened so will be a keeping an eye on global futures in the meantime, which also have seemed to be holding up well today for whatever reason~!

drillfix

01-12-2011, 05:23 AM

And here we go again.

Yet another trip around the block to play yet another round of put on the blind fold and Hit the Peinada...LOL

From CNN
======
Stocks stage a huge rally
Nov 30 11:05am:
Investors around the world cheered and raced to scoop up stocks Wednesday, after the Fed said that it will act with other central banks to boost liquidity and support the global economy.
=======

What a joke, the fed and other central banks? Haaa!

Although, now who exactly is helping who in all this charade? It seems the broke helping the broke, with an eventual promise that the broke will pay back the broke whom may or may not actually do it because they are broke, making the broke lenders more broke.

Or just another excuse to keep the can being kicked down the road. When this game actually unfolds it is not going to take any prisoners, it will be fast and harsh when it happens I reckon (IMO) but each to their own hey~!

Hoop

01-12-2011, 11:44 AM

Market intervention drags up scary memories for us NZers...Muldoonism back in the 1970's warping market information and the eventual reality that the National coffers were empty, NZ$ grossly overvalued, price freezing distorting real market prices, subsidies to hide real pricing etc ended his gross market intervention / protectionism reign.

Don't get me wrong...Market intervention can be successful and are ....dragging back memories from my 101 economics days at uni when dinosaurs still ruled the earth..I remember market intervention is good when market information becomes unavailable or is in error and figures are needed to be supplied.

But what worries me with this latest intervention on this surprisingly huge global scale is that market info is not broken or unavailable..the market info is correct in saying that during higher risk it wants a higher reward (higher interest rates)..so...lowering interest rates in an increasingly risky environment upsets the price/demand actions within the equation thereby go against free market theories by warping market signals and this usually at some point in time comes back to bite you in the bum.

I hope I'm wrong but this intervention on a Global scale seems to me that the Global Financial Crisis is back, bigger, and more nasty than its 2008 predecessor..and ..for this market intervention to fix a market information system that's obviously not broken must mean that a Melt down was imminent and the powers of B had no options left but hope that intervention will buy time.

I expect this equity market euphoria (sudden market correction) from this Market intervention will probably test the All Ords 4400 resistance zone in the short term....after that it depends on the fate of the 2011 Euro (now global?) financial crisis.

...A good educational watch if you have lots of free time is the 82 min video on John Mauldin (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mn4ujPLKvA)with reference to his book Endgame (remember this video was back in Apr 2010). This video gives you the understandings of how markets work....and now 18 months on this Euro economic mess comes as no surprise to me
I subscribe free to his newsletter (http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/) these are great reads as John Mauldin rubs shoulders with all the great people around the world and reflects their views as well Over the years I have watched John Mauldin he's been mostly spot on with his writings.

drillfix

01-12-2011, 12:07 PM

Thanks Hoop, good thoughts and great post there mate.

Dont know much about the history of NZ financial or markets but thats abit of a lesson.

Also, now downloading that Uni lecture in 720p HD from Youtube with a Firefox pluggin which is great for downing Youtube vids. Without a doubt will watch it over the next day or two.

Cheers~!

drillfix

01-12-2011, 12:24 PM

gazprom1

01-12-2011, 12:49 PM

And out of all days to have a no data or functional workstation, IB has pissed totally crapped out on me offering me No Data or any way to buy or sell anything.

Can anybody that IB sound off if they are having any issues from where they are?

I cant even contact them via the live chat support :(

Hey DF,

Great to see your postings - keep up the good work. How is life with you? I have been trading a little on the margins but sold down a couple of holdings completley today as I not convinced that this rally will be ongoing. I have no idea what the ongoing impact of the intervention will be on the equity markets but happy to take some money off the table and see what unfolds tomorrow, next week, next month.

Also, converted some NZD's into GBP and THB today as happy to lock into these rates.

Enjoy DF.

Gaz

drillfix

01-12-2011, 01:05 PM

Hi Gaz, good to see ya mate.

Yeah, I would think that is quite a good idea or moves you done Gaz, agree that this short term intervention will look good and suck many into going all in only to see them pay the price later on as you mention.

For those with alot of dosh it would be better off being mainly out I would say, however, for the small guy trades hit and run with only small account where by the damage also can only be small but, then its easy to be all in at any given time or half in or in for a one or two days without actually getting your hand cut off so to speak.

A little upset today that IB dont even tell you they have (today only) done some system changes, no email, no info, no nothing, totally missed the huge gaps on many stocks so if you never got a position you basically missed the boat completely which has happened to me.

Only to find out that when adding a Code to watch or trade, you dont use SMART you need to use what now is called DIRECTED, but they dont tell you the greedy corporate dick weeds that they are.

Anyway, sorry to sound like a bunch of sour grapes and its great to see ya again Gaz, keep posting in hey :)

drillfix

01-12-2011, 02:15 PM

The other thing I find that is really ironic is why Commsec Iress was also down or unusable this morning?

Funny how both IB and CS be not available for traders.

To me, its the same old Corporate Greed Scam, the ones who seem to hold all the keys do what they want while the retail trader has to suck on it and buy the spin of BS that is thrown to them.

I can now honestly say, I hope the whole shebang collapses like a house of cards, thats how much confidence I have in the system.

The only problem with that though is, out of the Ashes rise the same pack of w@nkers whom destroyed everything seem to prevail to only set up another game with the Odds only in their favour.

To me, it is "they" whom cause the biggest crime against humanity and sought out and globally stoned for all to see.

[/extremist hat now off]

drillfix

01-12-2011, 03:56 PM

Hi KW,

Yeah mate, I had the same thing with US servers and got frustrated with it all and I now log into HK servers.

Every day at 2pm though I get market data loss for a few seconds, and everyday its like clock work. It beats not being able to see or partake in the Pre Close, which Honestly, has got to be the most stupid thing to do to any market data switching and is absolutely ridiculous IMO.

What is a concern KW is that they never told me or anybody anything about today, No Flash bulletin either so when you log into TWS it flashes and will tell you. How easy would that be yet they fail to do so, what a Joke.

If there was a Crash, we, I or whom ever this happened to, could not do anything which is a scarey thought.

Together with hearing about Commsec iRess also doing this it actually makes me wonder that there are higher forces at work here.

To me, is totally symbolic and that means something, and it may even make me pull the pin and walk away from the market because whatever is going to happen is on its way, IMO.

Back to IB,

As mentioned, they changed it so any previous lists or portfolio window would have stocks that would not show data, also too not showing data was the Stock Scanner window, you could see the time in Scan but every thing has ? ? ? ? ? etc etc

After phoning them (IB support) up, or the department who deals with Data and TWS issues, they casually said to me:

Oh how about if you add a code rather than choosing SMART (which always worked previously) try using DIRECT (which is new).

They swapped and changed the system and they never told anybody. I dont know how your data ended up but it took me 60 mins nearly to get sorted which by then, opportunity has come and gone for several stocks as you can imagine.

Anyway, thats my gripe for today, tomorrow hopefully will be different, yet I will not rely on hope, it better be or frick it, I will pull the pin completely and they can have their platform and their Hierarchy order of things.

percy

01-12-2011, 04:20 PM

Thank you drillfix,gazprom1,and hoop for sharing your thoughts.
I took a little off the table to-day.

Hoop

02-12-2011, 12:11 AM

....I hope I'm wrong but this intervention on a Global scale seems to me that the Global Financial Crisis is back, bigger, and more nasty than its 2008 predecessor..and ..for this market intervention to fix a market information system that's obviously not broken must mean that a Melt down was imminent and the powers of B had no options left but hope that intervention will buy time....

Hi Guys there is a rumour doing the rounds that a big European bank came close to failing yesterday.http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2011/11/30/big-european-bank-failure-averted-what-central-banks-did-not-tell-us/

The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Canada in a coordinated action moved to provide liquidity to the global financial system.

Must be a too big to let fail bank...eh?
When the mainstream media gets a hold of this news I wonder how the equity market will react if the rumour is proved true...downwards I guess....good news though the rumour hasn't affect the European Markets atm, so maybe not true...maybe just Forbes speculation. http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/11/30/dont-believe-the-bank-failure-hype/

trackers

02-12-2011, 04:15 PM

As at close yesterday... Couple nice bull traps in there, I fell for them hook, line and sinker. Oh well.

3708

Full version: http://iforce.co.nz/i/qgkrc1i5.ghq.jpg

drillfix

02-12-2011, 07:10 PM

As at close yesterday... Couple nice bull traps in there, I fell for them hook, line and sinker. Oh well.

3708

Full version: http://iforce.co.nz/i/qgkrc1i5.ghq.jpg

Ahh well Trackers, but at least your honest with yourself so that has to be the best reward that will eventually reward.

Thanks for the MSI update as well mate~!

drillfix

02-12-2011, 10:27 PM

Hi Guys there is a rumour doing the rounds that a big European bank came close to failing yesterday.http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2011/11/30/big-european-bank-failure-averted-what-central-banks-did-not-tell-us/

The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Canada in a coordinated action moved to provide liquidity to the global financial system.

Hi Hoop,

When watching and listening to the news on ABC tonight, the news on EU is quite shocking really, its like the markets are in their own alternative reality, compared to what is being said on the news from say UK who are basically warning that the EU is on the edge of a potential meltdown.

And although the EU are struggling for a solution to the problem, this can potentially see each of the 17 EU countries having to go their own way, whatever way that may be.

Next week I can see my self also moving to cash should there be no actual facts because right now it seems the markets are trading on hope and the amount of existing undervalued stocks that are near lows.

Anyway, another week a head so lets see what blows in.

ps:
Had a watch of that John Mauldin, was not too bad. Seems he is keen on Biotech's for the next potential bubble if or should it come. Dont know if I will follow him though as those bubble stocks on the ASX dont seem to last very long but of course depending also on the sector and potential.

trackers

05-12-2011, 09:12 AM

http://iforce.co.nz/i/0u0jwec5.grh.jpg

full-size: http://iforce.co.nz/i/0u0jwec5.grh.jpg

drillfix

05-12-2011, 02:36 PM

Thanks for the update Trackers.

Here are some charts from Friday's close with the All Ords, Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, AUD dollar, and todays SNFE intraday futures as follows:

EMA REFERENCE
13ema - 30ema - 90ema - 200ema

===================== AUSTRALIA =======================

XAO daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/8zjpskkjvrjcfz8znvnl_All-Ords.png

Today's SNFE Intraday > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/oflkrqth39kx4z4gklfl_SPI-intraday.png

Dollar daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ft08ongcuqn0cbm2k_Dollar.png

===================== METALS ==========================

Gold daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/4aypx8s25kgtepsy0idh_Gold.png

Silver daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/rocwu4chs4a1btwvzkyz_Silver.png

Copper Futures daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/h2nl0d87cau5tqxm222s_Copper.png

Crude daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/8pwkal7zz36281cnmna_CrudeOil.png

Looking for either a break or decline near the lower chart on the 60 min SNFE intraday chart for potential direction of our XAO.

Other charts shows mixed between their daily and weekly charts so need to take things in the moment and also keep an eye on Global Markets and info and sentiment that comes out of the EU which is in many ways acting alike a lead for global markets.

Cheers for now and have a great day folks~! :)

trackers

08-12-2011, 02:30 PM

Chart as at last night's close... Not going to get as excited about the change in trend as I did last time, lol....

Double click image for large version

3714

percy

08-12-2011, 03:40 PM

Chart as at last night's close... Not going to get as excited about the change in trend as I did last time, lol....

Double click image for large version

3714

Getting interesting.Thanks for the update.This my be the upturn we have well positioned ourselves for ?

Hoop

08-12-2011, 05:02 PM

Getting interesting.Thanks for the update.This my be the upturn we have well positioned ourselves for ?

It is interesting indeed.. thanks Trackers..we have seen a higher low all we need now is a higher high .......

drillfix

09-12-2011, 05:29 PM

And less than an hour to go and back we go to hit the famous 4,252.xx support / resistance level.

Wonder where it will close, surely not too far off that. but 30 mins to go~!

drillfix

10-12-2011, 04:12 AM

Things always seem to be what they are not or what they maybe should be when they are not.

Which means, why in the Aussie news tonight we hear this really negative reaction to the discussions over there in Europe, when then the US opens up with guns blazing.

Even the DAX and FTSE are up in the green and a snipped reported on CNN Money says:

============
During a meeting in Brussels early Friday, the 17 members of the eurozone -- which share the embattled single currency -- reached a deal for a new intergovernmental treaty to deepen the integration of national budgets. Six other EU nations supported the deal, whereas Britain and three other countries did not.

Leaders are aiming to have the plan ready by March.
============

BY MARCH ??????????

Heck if that is not a game of Kick the Can down the road then I dont know what is. A complete Fabricated Joke if you ask me, but providing it keeps the world a float for a whilst many of us hold a degree of Stock then thats fine by me, but I still cringe at the what is obvious to come which is not really worth debating whilst a game of kick the can still is being played out by the US and EU.

Halebop

10-12-2011, 09:59 AM

Belg I'm not sold on conspiracy theories - I think there are sound market psychology reasons why support and resistance bands remain true without needing to blame 'the man'. But I do agree that conditions don't appear too bad.

This market reminds me of the end of '92. Commercial and residential property markets were screwed, Germany was going backwards, Japan was failing to re-ignite, USA was still nationalising Savings and Loans (I'm also reminded that some large US hedge/investing institutions of today were the vultures of '92 - particularly in real estate).

Just swap a few country names, exchange corporate debt for government debt and we have broadly the same scenarios.

However by the end of '92 the Ozzie market was fed up with being moribund and lifted by about 70% from bottom to top over 14 or 15 months. I think there is enough pent up demand that just the absence of bad news will encourage a similar scenario.

While I can't ignore Europe's incompetence and Asia's is quite right to be incredulous that these are the same a$$holes that admonished them in '97, the oven just needs the right temperature to get the cake rising - the rest of the mix is in place.

Hoop

10-12-2011, 12:13 PM

Yes..in the short/medium term there maybe an extended relief rally or a Commodity based substained rise (see at the bottom of my post).........Halebop I don't think the proper mix is in place for a general overall sustained AORD index rise , yes profits are good but....Guys...reminder..I'm not writing with emotional negative bias I am writing stating sharemarket physics theories...

I will highlight it with one example using basic physics to keep it simple...... the inflation and interest rates are presently low (abnormally low in some markets) and these 2 factors are factored into the present sharemarket environment ..when this economy is perceived to have finally "come right" inflation will rise and interest rates will rise to combat inflation. Something else to worry about is the fact that Monetary policy is very very loose atm (OK,, Australia is tighter than most other countries)..any economic recovery upturn may be very sudden and the brakes may be applied suddenly as well...far out targets by the RB may be bought forward resulting in sharemarket correction downwards.

As you guys are experienced investors you will know about the physical mechanics of Reported PE Ratio's...they are giving false signals of market undervaluation atm ....

Stockmarket Investor PE Ratio's expectations lower when its key driver inflation in is action.... because investors demand better yields.
In other words for the sharemarket to physically rocket upwards with sustainibity the business growth will have to rise even faster to negate the effects of future inflation and tighter monetary controls on sharemarket prices to prevent rampent unsustainable growth.

Most Global Business profits have been rising at a reasonably fast pace for 3 years now and there are signs of plateauing.... Note that this economic uncertainty is not business based this time(it was in 2008) it is a political (Government) systemic crisis that has been keeping inflation and investors subdued....thereby the stockmarket has adjusted itself to this good profit growth/low inflation/low interest environment

There is no correlation between good economy / good sharemarket...

Usually, but not always, the best sharemarket times begin 2/3rds of the way through a recessionary period ...the best sharemarket performance is during times of economic woes...hence the cyclic bull market term "climbing the wall of worry".

Also of note...The ASX is about halfway through a secular bear market...although there are large cyclic bull markets within a secular bear, they tend to be earlier in the secular cycle rather than later........ history has shown inflation to be a major concern during the later stages of this super bear cycle and this results in stunted cyclic bull markets going forward. Thereby an investor should not get their hopes up on a huge bull recovery as the historic chances are against you.

Therefore during secular bear markets chances of stockmarket disappointments are higher especially during economic good times (FA disappointments) .........Like its cyclic version, the bear secular bear doesn't throw you out of the market it tends to wears you out (over time).

Now is the ASX in the same category as the USA ? European markets??...ASX although in a secular bear market state it is a more commodity based market....(commodities are in a secular bull market)........... commodity stocks undervalued?? Your thoughts?