All Ords Index.

[Hoop]

U have done extremely well Phaedrus, congragulations:t_up:

These suckers on this thread are stumped, according to u they should have sold all their holding, after the market had already done most of its correction.
STAY OUT still stands I take it.

Now we are getting ready for your green light, the bargains have been picked, I suppose u did some fruit picking as well :p while these suckers are waiting on the sideline.:D

"Be greedy when others are fearful" and "fearful when others are greedy" and the man who said this is being Greedy;)
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds325.gif

Hope you don't mind Tricia I've updated your Quoted Phaedrus's Chart. to show the second recent red arrow We don't want to use outdated data in our summations do we.?

As I see it.... the MSI is a collection of the best selected TA indicators and maximised by Phaedrus to protect your capital gain under conversative risk v reward scenario. Good TA indicators are designed for best results over time so they never trigger exactly at the market top or bottom and I'm yet to discover a perfect system that can do just that. P's grouping of selected indicators MSI is as good as it gets it's up there with the best and we are very lucky on ST to have it available free to us.

...Sure..everyone has got slightly differing risk v reward views and adjust the conventional systems accordingly to suit their needs so P's MSI will not suit everyones needs .... For for the Evil Knievel investors the MSI is too boring and does not create their much needed adrenalin rushes, they are thrill seekers who hop in hoping for the bottom and if by some remote chance they do the reward is totally huge and we get to hear how great their investment skills are for years...but if it isn't the bottom they lose their fingers and get their arses burnt and they go away quietly and lick their wounds often never to be heard of again....we also have the opposite extreme when the MSI won't work because those investors are so timid and fearful that they finally climb aboard just before the market top and then blame how unlucky they are....

..... so the best optimum place is the broad area middle ground ...eh

We and TA can't predict the future hence the risk factor ..but risk can be minimised by the reward fatcor and that where in this optimised middle ground these systems and the various individual indicators such as MSI play their role.


Conservative R V R indicators can be likened to Civil alarm alerts On P's chart there are 2 red arrows (get out)... a bit like a civil alert siren going off indicating a Tsunami is coming. the first red arrow in May 2010 is a tiddler no damage if you kept swimming, but...what if it was the red arrow arrow of the 2008 type (not shown) ..eh Japan size.

The latest red arrow at the moment said get away from the beach and wait for the green all clear as there is a possible Tsunami threat happening again...but Ratkin and Tricia are still down on the beach building sand castles and inviting everyone on ST to come and play with them ....Evil Knievel would be proud of you Guys.

[ratkin]

Its too machanical for my liking. No real excuse for not buying up Uranium stocks once it became apparant that the media
were doing their usual trick of exaggerating all the dangers.
With Ps indicator you just have to stand by and watch.

Same during the GFC when opus prime went belly up. there were ridiculous bargains about . It would of been criminal not to take
advantage Have only just sold Acrux for nine times what i paid for it.

[tricha]

Hope you don't mind Tricia I've updated your Quoted Phaedrus's Chart. to show the second recent red arrow We don't want to use outdated data in our summations do we.?

As I see it.... the MSI is a collection of the best selected TA indicators and maximised by Phaedrus to protect your capital gain under conversative risk v reward scenario. Good TA indicators are designed for best results over time so they never trigger exactly at the market top or bottom and I'm yet to discover a perfect system that can do just that. P's grouping of selected indicators MSI is as good as it gets it's up there with the best and we are very lucky on ST to have it available free to us.

...Sure..everyone has got slightly differing risk v reward views and adjust the conventional systems accordingly to suit their needs so P's MSI will not suit everyones needs .... For for the Evil Knievel investors the MSI is too boring and does not create their much needed adrenalin rushes, they are thrill seekers who hop in hoping for the bottom and if by some remote chance they do the reward is totally huge and we get to hear how great their investment skills are for years...but if it isn't the bottom they lose their fingers and get their arses burnt and they go away quietly and lick their wounds often never to be heard of again....we also have the opposite extreme when the MSI won't work because those investors are so timid and fearful that they finally climb aboard just before the market top and then blame how unlucky they are....

..... so the best optimum place is the broad area middle ground ...eh

We and TA can't predict the future hence the risk factor ..but risk can be minimised by the reward fatcor and that where in this optimised middle ground these systems and the various individual indicators such as MSI play their role.


Conservative R V R indicators can be likened to Civil alarm alerts On P's chart there are 2 red arrows (get out)... a bit like a civil alert siren going off indicating a Tsunami is coming. the first red arrow in May 2010 is a tiddler no damage if you kept swimming, but...what if it was the red arrow arrow of the 2008 type (not shown) ..eh Japan size.

The latest red arrow at the moment said get away from the beach and wait for the green all clear as there is a possible Tsunami threat happening again...but Ratkin and Tricia are still down on the beach building sand castles and inviting everyone on ST to come and play with them ....Evil Knievel would be proud of you Guys.

A great analogy Hoop.

This wave has been and gone.
Unfortunately with the ever presence of a Tsumami in these changing times, I do not think this picture will be quick enough to save ones butt.
With the difference between greed and fear being, about 1 second.

I'm keeping a watchful eye on the CU price and I have oil on my watch list. If it goes past a certain level I will certainly leave the beach.

Spot on Winner, the famous man is in a new playing field and has far to much money, to find a home for.
But from past history, he has the patience of a saint, from memory waiting 10 years to re-enter the market, back in 19..,
A dam sight more patience than I will ever have.

[Phaedrus]

Tricha appears to have no overall strategy and simply contends that "TA is for the birds". He does not seem to have grasped the essence of what I am advocating here.

This is simply an insurance policy, a system that ensures you will not suffer large losses whenever the market slumps. The aim is the preservation of capital. It was born out of my experience of the '87 crash. My trend-following system had worked superbly on individual stocks that I held, getting me out of each shortly after they peaked. Totally ignoring the very significant fact that most all of the stocks I held had triggered Sell signals in a fairly short space of time, and flushed with success, I proceeded to scoop up the "bargains" that were being presented to me as the market dropped. The more the market dropped, the more I bought. At the time, I saw this as evidence of my bravery, my staunchness, my independent thought. I was a contrarian and proud of it. Trouble was, the market kept dropping. The rate of fall accelerated, ending with a major retracement. A crash. I was, of course, fully invested. It took me years to recover my losses. As bad as those losses were, the worst aspect of all this was that after the market plunged and had begun to recover, I had no cash to take advantage of the situation. This Index based "overview" system was designed to stop that happening to me again.

Here is the 2007 post where I documented the system.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5149-NZSX50-Index
(You only need to read the first page.)

Here is an update of the longterm indicators from that original chart. Note the multiple signals as indicators that had been positive for years all turned negative. My rule then was to :-
(1) Tighten all Stops.
(2) Act on all Sell signals.
(3) No Buying for as long as the downtrend continued.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX326.gif


Ratkin takes the view that :-
(1) An Index does not show "whats been happening in the real world".
(2) Indices cannot generate any meaningful signals.
(3) Even if they could, such signals would be too late to be of any use.
(4) Any crash is "likely to be very sudden" and thus impossible to pre-empt.
(5) His aim is "to be brave and force myself to buy when times get ugly".
I do not agree with any of those points, but we are in the unique position of being able to see exactly how this all panned out.

I ended that 2007 post with the words "If this market tanks, I am NOT going with it."
The market did tank.
I didn't go with it.
Ratkin and many others did.

I have been steadily refining this system for many years and am quite proud of what I have done and how well it works. It is ironic that I have received so much flak over something that I see as my most worthwhile contribution to ST. I guess no good turn goes unpunished!

[lissica]

I have been steadily refining this system for many years and am quite proud of what I have done and how well it works. It is ironic that I have received so much flak over something that I see as my most worthwhile contribution to ST. I guess no good turn goes unpunished!

It's much appreciated. I don't always follow your charts as I'm not a trader, but they've still proven very useful for timing longer term decisions.

Having said that, I can't see any reason to frequent a forum where everybody agrees with one another ~_~

[ratkin]

I ended that 2007 post with the words "If this market tanks, I am NOT going with it."
The market did tank.
I didn't go with it.
Ratkin and many others did.
!


I ended up doing very well out of the GFC , The stocks i went down with , were the likes of woolworth , metcash, ramsay healthcare, Cochlear , acrux, mitchell communications group
Only ABC learning tanked and that was paid for 20 times over by the stocks i bought during your red zone.

Its in your red zone that the big long term money is made. Buying when everyone else is too scared too . I was called mad on occasions on this forum for buying at certain points. That was the best time to buy. Its been shown time and time again that buying during utmost fear is the time to buy.

Thing is though it takes big Kahunas , some of the buys ai made literally left me shaking as i pressed the button , but i knew it was thhe correct thing to do.

Maybe one day the market wont come back , but if that happens i suspect we are all toast anyways.

[Phaedrus]

The market still hasn't come back. More than two years on it has barely made up half of the losses of the 2008 crash.
The big money was made by getting out - and staying out until the long slide ended.

[ratkin]

I think thats very misleading , for anyone who has bought stocks in the last year or two its come back with a vengence

[ratkin]

Only people who really lost out were either buy and holders with unsuitable portfolios for the long term.
People who sold out at the bottom .
And all the poor people who had their money in finance companies .

Everyone else should of been able to do well out of it.

I dont know why we have to have this continual argument about methods. There are plenty
of different ways to profit You are fixated with buy and hold being bad , when its
a perfectly legitamate strategy when properly implemented , as is TA

You might be suprised to know i have just read a TA book . Entries and exits by Elder.
Wasnt bad , however he seemed to feel the need to continually comment on the flash cars
and houses that the traders in the book had.

[percy]

My shares lost 40% in 2008.I had a lot of PGC,NPX and SCY.In Aussie I had TPI and BPT. I remember buying BPT at $1.50.I think they are 92cents today.
I have made up a lot of ground in the last 2 years,but my nett worth in shares is still approx 25% less than it was at the top of the market.
It is very hard to make up big losses.What takes 15 years to amase just goes out the door.What I have learnt from it.Well SCY was too thinnly traded to have the large holding I had.NPX,there were plenty of warnings.PGC there were warnings.Charts showed all these things in retrospect.
I must admit I made big money buying SCY after they went into receivership.I noted customer support,well stocked stores,no old stock.Brokers were so happy to get rid of odd lots they sold them to me without brokerege.I think I knew SCY as well as the directors,so I was brave while others were fearful.
I looked at my holdings at 9/11 and only sold Tower which was the right thing to do.I feel unless you know a company as well as the directors the only safe thing to do when the markets turn,is to sell up.So you may loss 5 or 10% but will not suffer the 40% losses I did.I look at charts today,more than ever.I lot of times I am surprised at how quickly they can change.I think FBU was going no where until ChCh quake. I think Phaedrus,drillfix,Hoop and others very helpful at explaining charts.You just need to post"could we please have a chart?'and one is posted.What does that mean? is quickly answered.So yes, I have a lot to thank Phaedrus and others for.My unpaid insurance policies.!!

[percy]

I think the debate going on here is because there is more than one method to make money, Buy Low , Sell High, or Buy High and Sell Higher. Both methods work , both require knowledge and skills and discipline to pull off.

I think as Phaedrus's chart shows the largest Danger to Capital is holding a Stock which is Going against you for too long.

Identifying when a bad situation is occurring and acting is most important in both methods, know when to close a Trade.

Its More Important When you Sell than When you Buy, Most People put 95% of their Focus on When to Buy and What to Buy rather than when they will Sell. Sell being A Stop loss and ideally a Target Price.


AA

AA you put into simple words what took me a long ramble to try and say.

[fihr]

Thank you Phaedrus for posting up your charts. I find them instructive and helpful.

I made money prior to the GFC first by doing buy and hold. We (my husband and I) used Stockdoctor to help us with the FA, and managed to do modestly well with that over 2002 - 2003. We made some money and held stocks that we believed were fundamentally good. We found that sometimes a stock would go down in price with no explanation, for some time, and then finally you'd find out why - often things that insiders may have been aware weren't healthy for the company but that didn't justify announcements. TA would have gotten us out.

We did very well out of mining stocks prior to the GFC. (Primarily MCR, JBM and AGM at the time. We liked nickel.) Followed the nickel charts. Two of our shareholdings were taken over. They were substantial. We sold other shares as we were buying a home. Then came the GFC. Had we not sold prior we would have lost more than 50% of our net worth, I believe. We still held some shares all the way down their slippery slope. I believed that MQG was good. I believed people like Huntley who said it was undervalued. I thought BNB was good. And ZFX. That tells you how good my judgement wasn't. Had I used any kind of TA at all at the time, and had I developed any kind of traders discipline, I would have sold months before.

So I hope that this time I've learnt my lesson re capital preservation. I feel incredibly fortunate to have had events other than TA take me out of the market prior to losing a fortune. Now I am learning to trade, and its not easy, especially since I learn by doing. Which means by losing money as well as making it. The discussions here are very helpful to read. I enjoy not only Phaedrus' contributions, but Drillfix's regular graphs and others. And Tricha's metal charts.

However, these days capital management is definitely part of my plan. We came out of the GFC well, but could have come out a whole lot better. I do not want to repeat the mistakes of the past, and I am willing to let the market have some money back if it means I survive to trade another day.

[soulman]

Don't forget the white horse in buying and selling called luck. There is an element of luck everywhere. You just have to remember it when you got lucky. The skill in the market can only be used when you are profitable year in, year out for at least 5 or more years. I know I haven't been there yet.

If everyone here are ahead, then everyone's algebra are working. There are more than one way to skin a cat and the same with the financial market. If your wealth are increased because of your investment, then you must be doing something right. But off course there are always improvement and longevity. Things can always be better. That's obviously the next step.

Fihr, I see you had some beauties there in AGM and JBM. Kerry Harmanis got out right on time.

I can still remember the days of Allco, BNB, City Pacific, MFS and ABC. You can't get codes for those coy anymore.

[Lizard]

All of my bad trades in the past could have been prevented by using TA. All of them.

I've had some wins and some losses on TA and, for me, they mostly balance themselves out. I can't decide whether I'm just terrible at TA or if it is because it doesn't suit the type of stocks I like or that it is just more difficult to get right when using it on "cheap" and depressed stocks, looking for the beginnings of a turnaround.

The MSI makes sense to me, but the problem is that in this sideways market, getting out is too expensive for me to do repeatedly, just in case it is "the big one" - more illiquid shares often have quite large spreads by the time it triggers, so getting in and out can easily cost 20%. This downturn, I tried selling down holdings in 5 of the more liquid shares I own - all but one are now higher than they were when I sold.

Anyway, take a look at this chart and tell me if you would have sold:
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-8/1204598/MAQ1.png.jpg

[JBmurc]

All of my bad trades in the past could have been prevented by using TA. All of them. I lost more money by holding on past TA exit signals, and likewise, left money on the table by selling too early. I've also bought stocks in clear downtrends - some of which have recovered and gone on to do fabulously well, and others that continued to sink further and have languished ever since. Buying in a downtrend is pot luck I reckon - sometimes it pays off, sometimes its better to wait. TA seems better suited to selling in respect of risk management.

I sold up 75% of my portfolio this time round, and I'm still ahead profit wise than if I had held on through the correction. There were only 2 stocks (out of 30+) that I wished I hadn't sold as both went against the trend and went up. However, now I have a lot of money to spend on buying companies at half their previous price. So I've lost nothing by selling, even if it wasn't the big correction I was expecting (which I'm bummed about!)

yeah good one If I'd sold pre Japan disaster and brought back in mon-tuesday I'd have made a huge gain (but that would have meant I sold on T/A alone and then days later brought on F/A alone)
In all at present I'm round 10% higher than what I was pre-japan thanks to good F/A on the companies I hold (I'm a 90% F/A 10% T/A investor/trader)

[STRAT]

Anyway, take a look at this chart and tell me if you would have sold:
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-8/1204598/MAQ1.png.jpgHi Liz. Whats the ticker?

[fihr]

Don't forget the white horse in buying and selling called luck. There is an element of luck everywhere. You just have to remember it when you got lucky. The skill in the market can only be used when you are profitable year in, year out for at least 5 or more years. I know I haven't been there yet.

...

Fihr, I see you had some beauties there in AGM and JBM.

I can still remember the days of Allco, BNB, City Pacific, MFS and ABC. You can't get codes for those coy anymore.

Yes, Soulman, I was lucky. I only appreciated how lucky in retrospect. We were believers in nickel in 02/03 due to our belief in the growing need for steel in China. We were thematic investors with a long term horizon. We bought many of our AGM's at 3c and held through ups and downs for some years & were taken over for $1.10. JBM we bought for around $2.00 and sold at $23. Even MCR was good, from .49c to $2.50ish. I think in a way we were less cautious after that; I held BNB to the bitter end for example. (Shouldn't have been distracted from nickel.) Hopeless! And had the takeover of AGM not occurred, those could have easily slipped back to .30c or so I think, post GFC. So despite doing well enough to buy our home with it all, I became very aware how easily things could have been very different, and that is when I realised I needed to develop capital preservation disciplines rather than rely on only gut feeling, hope or faith as a longer term investor. I'm still very much working on practicing these disciplines and therefore I find this website interesting. Even if I take a loss, I am pleased that I acted on the sell. (And any later buy signal.) These are skills that could save me one day. It's not about being right or wrong on the individual call.

But Lizard is also right, that the costs of getting in and out of illiquid shares can be high, especially if your system means you do so frequently. Therefore if my portfolio is based on medium term entry and exit signals, I try to make sure the shares are liquid enough for my needs.

If I'm happy with their future prospects I will still just hold thinly traded speccies though. If they are thinly traded enough, the macro environment won't even affect their price much. If you know that their value will increase way out of proportion to their current price no matter what the market, if they eventually come good, then why not just hold them. (Unless you are a short term trader.) Another factor after holding AGM for a while was that the tax implications if we sold were huge. Buying back in might not have been an option. That might also be a factor in some circumstances where you would hold regardless of a market. Having said that, watching a price retreat back much further than the tax you would have had to pay is also a possibility.

[winner69]

Hi Liz. Whats the ticker?

You will have to gess or do a bit of forensic stuff

AA said he would not have sold if he was a long term investor ... that might have been a good call if he had any inkling that the share mgiht go to $12

Or again it could be a Liz trick question (it is raining where she is and she is bored?) and it is now $2

(the scale confused me for a while)

[winner69]

Pity the TEL chart doesn't look like the one that Liz posted

[ratkin]

Sounds like you have made the classic mistake of letting an internet forum influence your investment decisions, rarely a wise move.
In the long run you need to be 100% confident in your own ability , its all too easy these days to flit from one technique to the next based on latest book read, or self proclaimed forum guru listened to.

Many of those who fail at buy and hold make this mistake , they end up not making any money because they change tack midway through , not being able to decide if they are trading or holding.
If your going to sell up everytime there is an earthquake or minor radiation leak then 2012 is going to be a difficult year for you :-)



I've had some wins and some losses on TA and, for me, they mostly balance themselves out. I can't decide whether I'm just terrible at TA or if it is because it doesn't suit the type of stocks I like or that it is just more difficult to get right when using it on "cheap" and depressed stocks, looking for the beginnings of a turnaround.

The MSI makes sense to me, but the problem is that in this sideways market, getting out is too expensive for me to do repeatedly, just in case it is "the big one" - more illiquid shares often have quite large spreads by the time it triggers, so getting in and out can easily cost 20%. This downturn, I tried selling down holdings in 5 of the more liquid shares I own - all but one are now higher than they were when I sold.

[trackers]

You will have to gess or do a bit of forensic stuff

AA said he would not have sold if he was a long term investor ... that might have been a good call if he had any inkling that the share mgiht go to $12

Or again it could be a Liz trick question (it is raining where she is and she is bored?) and it is now $2

(the scale confused me for a while)

The name of the image is MAQ1.jpg - Do I win a prize? :)

[Hoop]

Hi Liz.

OK Liz...here I go :scared:

I would have sold out in April 2010 for approx $4.90 in theory..The skeptics will say that's easy because you have hindsight from the chart after that sell date....true....but read on because it ain't that easy:).

In practice if I had bought in at the trend bottom break at about 65cents I would've fallen in love with this stock and would be making all sorts of excuses to stay in and not sell and ride it down in Dr Strangelove style....and the excuse would be to keep correcting the uptrend line (not drawn). A problem with quick uptrend stocks over a reasonable long period of time is the unknown end to the party..could be at $5.40 or $8 or $12 and when the stock loses it upward momentum and the disappointment and worry sets in you start in depth FA and in a lot of cases FA on the stock may be OK so human nature takes a rear vision mirror look and say the stock looks better now FA wise than 2 months ago when the share was galloping upwards so it will recover and continue to party on....
Also the nagging thought that once you sell it will re-commence its steep upward climb.

So whats is happening ...its emotion entering into your thinking.

This share chart is very similar to OGC.NZ except the dates are a year out.

ANALYSIS
Can't predict the future past June 2010..I don't know the outcome to present day.
Nearly all budding TA students draw trend lines and religiously act upon them...Trend line are overrated and often fail... this chart is a classic example of any up trend line drawn confirmed or not is useless as it would've kicked you out of your share as the share lessened its up trend but still rising...so ignore the trend line and use other methods
The chart above has limited info to draw S&R Lines...Usually with sharp uptrending stocks I draw S&R lines which incorporate gaps found ( gap analysis) using candlestick chart
The chart I posted I think is self explanatory
I used chart formations and using high highs and higher lows (blue lines)
Notice that by $5.00 things aren't that rosy and doubts would've started so I look at possible chart formations in progress but not completed...usually the Head & shoulder formation is the most common and are the most reliable and in this chart it is a possibility but not conclusive that it is an H&S. We won't know that until its formed and by then it is too late for the investor to bail...so...Lets assume it is a H&S formation until the chart proves it isn't ...no harm done if we use this assumption.

Create a line between the 2 necks and extend it towards the future if the share price falls below the neckline (purple line) SELL ...watch the chart after you sell if the H&S formation is real the price action should mirror the price going toward the head ....therefore you would expect the price to level out then fall to the shoulder line (purple line) Note:-The fall to the shoulder line is $3.80 the target price (which never seems to work;)) Target Price (TP) = H - (H - S)
3.80 = 5.40 - (5.40 - 4.80)
A few will notice that I have drawn the shoulder line below the shoulder yes I have..its the support line to the next shoulder down...now the TP should match the shoulder line if so then wait to see if this support line holds if it does buy in on confirmation of other TA buy signals or you can take a risk and preempt a buy with stop outs at just below that support shoulder line.

So ..at any time during that H&S formation that it looks to be failing it can be an alert signal to watch for any other buy signal.
Lets say for example you sold at $4.90 and the price suddenly jumps up...This shows a H&S formation failure as the spike up didn't happen on the lead up to the head (mirror image) This is the alert signal.
However I would wait for a higher high higher low so maybe looking to re-enter at about 5.00 but it depends on how the chart looks like by then and how long it takes (time).
So selling out at 4.90 and perhaps running the risk that you will be admitting the preemptive H&S formation assumption was a mirage and re-entering at say 5.00 or being super conservative and buying back in at the primary resistance break out at 5.40 ...overall It would not have cost me that much...

50 cents/share is the maximum insurance cost for being super conservative... if this share continues to go nuts and reaches $10

And I bet you guys though all I did was draw simple lines on charts ..eh

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Sharetraderchart.jpg

[Hoop]

The name of the image is MAQ1.jpg - Do I win a prize? :)

Took me an hour to write this post..so just saw this Trackers ...yep if this is the chart The H&S formation failed (alert signal) and I would've re-entered at 5.00 (higher high higher low) WOW look at that 5.40 retest in late August after it broke its primary 5.40 resistance line...a extra bullish confirmation signal and also gives you a second chance to pile in

ELZ ..note my reference to OGC...

Nice one Liz

EDIT
ERROR target pricing is wrong should read TP = s - (h-s)
TP is 4.20 = 4.80 - (5.40 - 4.80)
I had the formula the wrong way round so 3.80 is error
The shoulder line theory is correct as it is upsloping so more time needed to reach 4.20

[Phaedrus]

Its in your red zone that the big long term money is made. Quite the opposite. It is in the red zone that the big, longterm money is lost. Like 54% in 16 months, for example!


Buying when everyone else is too scared to. I was called mad on occasions on this forum for buying at certain points. That was the best time to buy.
But, but, Ratkin, it demonstrably wasn't! Most anything you bought on the way down you could have bought much cheaper simply by delaying buying until the market turned. For example you bought NWE in the "red zone" at 14 cents. NWE continued on down with the market, bottoming out at less than 1 cent. Even now, years later, it is only 4.8 cents. You have made a huge loss on a stock that, had you delayed your purchase until the market turned, you would have now been sitting on a huge profit.


Only people who really lost out were either buy and holders with unsuitable portfolios for the long term..
You imply that people with "suitable" portfolios did not lose out, or perhaps lost less than the average. Let's look at the stocks you "went down with". Peak to trough, their average fall was 55%. (I very charitably left out ABC Learning which "tanked".) The market went down 54%. Just as a rising tide lifts all ships, they all go down with a falling tide. Everybody who stayed in the market lost out.


Everyone else should of been able to do well out of it.'Fraid not. The fact is that in the years since the 2008 crash, markets have, as yet, only made up half of the fall. Most of those that held throughout the big drop will be years just getting back to where they were.


You are fixated with buy and hold being bad, when its a perfectly legitamate strategy when properly implemented. I'm not saying that it is not a legitimate strategy, I'm simply demonstrating that in a falling market, it is a strategy that maximises your losses - and minimises your buying capacity when the slide does eventually end.

[winner69]

Rattie ... you forgot about drawing in the death cross pattern on your chart ... you might have been out the day after you bought

[ratkin]

Your wrong P , because i did stay in and i didnt lose out. And please tell me how i could of bought acrux at cheaper than 45cents by waiting. Im tired of these pointless arguments of yours .
I know your desperate for the pat on the backs that you expect for producing the worlds most marvelous indicator ever created , however you just have to accept that there are different ways of operating than yours which are just as valid.



Why cant you just let it rest? It had gone all peaceful and good humoured today , yet you once again have to come out arguing the point

[winner69]

Also interesting action on the MAQ chart (Liz's case study) around Sept 4th andd Feb 22nd

Ratkin - I think Mr Ring might be on to something ... the moon predicts quakes as well as share market activity

How you shaping up anyway mate after the quakes ... hopefully things getting back to normal .... I ahve been worried that maybe the quakes have affected you in some way ... you seem to be posting a lot more on ST and the posts don't seem to be those of the Ratkin of old .... maybe another trip back to old country is needed?

Take care and thinking of you

[Lizard]

Yeah, well spotted Winner. Here's the "hindsight" chart - that dip doesn't look nearly so ominous now...
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-8/1204598/MAQ2.png.jpg

I was just interested in comments. In reality, I sold one third at $4.70 - which was probably the most costly trade I made all year. They'd risen from my buy price of 85cps in around Nov 08 (oops, red MSI!), so I had a reasonable size holding. Despite my valuation being over $8, the TA made me nervous, so I decided to lighten up... by the time the chart turned up again, the cash was all invested elsewhere (and the spread probably would have meant buying at $5.60).

Was it a mistake to sell? In hindsight, the chart says yes - and I am pretty sure the cash didn't do as well elsewhere... but I would probably still do the same again.

[elZorro]

Took me an hour to write this post..so just saw this Trackers ...yep if this is the chart The H&S formation failed (alert signal) and I would've re-entered at 5.00 (higher high higher low) WOW look at that 5.40 retest in late August after it broke its primary 5.40 resistance line...a extra bullish confirmation signal and also gives you a second chance to pile in

ELZ ..note my reference to OGC...

Nice one Liz

EDIT
ERROR target pricing is wrong should read TP = s - (h-s)
TP is 4.20 = 4.80 - (5.40 - 4.80)
I had the formula the wrong way round so 3.80 is error
The shoulder line theory is correct as it is upsloping so more time needed to reach 4.20

Hello Hoop, yes I did notice, but this MAQ share didn't behave like OGC. I haven't looked into Maquarie Telecom, but my bet is they didn't surprise the market with a 15% total new share sale to fundies as a done deal. Or dive into a new mine when the locals weren't fully on board.
I think Liz has done very well to pick up MAQ in the first place. It isn't a 20 bagger yet, but 14 is great. I wonder if it'll keep going, I'd have thought it was a competitive business, VOIP, cloud computing etc.

Does this example point out how TA can't really cope with sudden events like a new press release, dilution of shares, external forces or a change in sentiment? Should an investor then place more weight on their FA research? Maybe Liz has a current valuation on this business ($8?). In that case once positive sentiment moves the SP well past this point, Liz will be looking harder at small downturns, and then TA will be more useful.

Meanwhile Hoop, I have to say that all your TA line drawing and maths came up with the wrong answer this time..:eek2:

[percy]

I had a rep who used to call on me.He knew I followed the share market and used to have me on about the money I lost in the 1987 crash,and how clever he was selling out a week before the crash.Always,the same,"you still losing money in shares?" Well one day when no one was listening I asked him how he knew the market would crash.? "Oh,I didn't I needed my share market money for a house I was buying"!! Clever bas......d just turned out to be an ordinary bast....d after all.

[evilroyrule]

:(i been watching this one from the sidelines. everyone tells us when they sold out re recent dip, but when will they re-enter ....and how will they compare to those who held pre shaker/quaker?

but i cant argue with the following, which i thnk best sums up for me at least the positive sides ofT/A, though i am not an expoent of it as he will tell you:

"I'm not saying that it is not a legitimate strategy, I'm simply demonstrating that in a falling market, it is a strategy that maximises your losses - and [B]minimises your buying capacity when the slide does eventually end."
i have tucked that one away for next yime. maybe next time she dips i wont be so lucky, or maybe the ship will correct again.

cheers everyone. takes four walls to build a house. love you!

[Hoop]

Hello Hoop, yes I did notice,....

.....Meanwhile Hoop, I have to say that all your TA line drawing and maths came up with the wrong answer this time..:eek2:

Did it??? ....

Well my TP maths was wrong I will admit that..and ...I buggered up the formula as well yeah OK..but..the correct TP was around 4.20 so it lowered the reward but I still would've sold at 4.90 ...Now if the TP was say 4.80 then no I wouldn't have sold at 4.90 and I would not have used my H&S formation Strategy. I thought line drawing was Ok ELZ ???....but anyway both of these were the side issues..helping me in my decision making to whether to use this H&S presumed formation strategy or not.

ELZ did you failed to recognise the strategic concept?? ...
Using this strategy (the H&S formation presumption) I created my own opportunity enabling me to do TA work (selling at the neck line break) on the presumed formation until it succeeded or failed When Liz supplied the extra hindsight data TA identified the failure. Now I have the bonus that it doesn't matter whether that H&S formation succeeded to complete or failed to complete, both ways I win and hence eliminated risk.

....because in theory I won.... got in at 65 got out at 4.90 got back in at 5.00...its a success story for me ELZ

Yes Liz ..I hear you:)...can't buy in at 5.00 in reality ..illiquid share problem.

The other strategy, to do nothing (hold and hope) had a high risk factor in this example...too high for me (sleepless nights , etc).

Yes AA...having volume as an indicator on Liz's chart would've been a huge help... it would give me another TA indication of a possible very bearish blow off volume top event.
Volume is very important for trading... illiquid shares raises that risk factor.

Do I use these strategies in real life?...Yes when I can identify an opportunity... I detailed one strategy trade by trade in a post back in May 2009. I made +89% profit on MFT during its Bear market cycle which lost nearly 2/3's of its share value...obviously a buy and hold strategy during that bear period was not an option (click here) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?760-MFT/page19)

[drillfix]

Hi folks,

Seems all you folks are a social bunch with plenty of posts with all sorts of debates and angles getting covered in this ASX thread.


Rather than do a late night, early AM monster post about the close of Friday's XAO chart, I will just post a quick chart for reference and you can see the obvious on the following chart of the XAO both daily and weekly and you can draw your own conclusions.


XAO daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/xtuujfhdefcxj9vmde64.png


In some respects one must wonder if there is a curve ball in the making getting ready to be thrown here or is this recent run a false positive?

Lots of positive signals, yet the upcoming days could eventually turn them away but how will we know and what will be the signals?

Well, IMO a failure to rally past 4,873 or a run and HOLD above 4,905 , as well as the Price Indicator (candles) staying above the short term 13EMA (light blue) on the daily, and on the weekly all those EMA converging very close together is a sign of uncertain direction and need to spread apart in their low to high number order to gauge the trend and strength of the trend or direction, so having said that or Failing all that then to me, this means back down the rabbit hole we go and yield the caution should that appear to play out as I have just wrote. Yet logically of course, we must wait until we actually get confirmation that such move is playing out.

The comment is only for future reference on a IF and WHEN and WHAT to look for and as always I feel we all should just take a one day at a time approach because we still have positive indicators working in favour of the current rally, yet the Price on the daily has sprung back down off the falling oblique resistance line as shown in the daily chart which could be a sign of a breather needed? Who knows, tomorrow/today will tell the story.

The MACD, RSI and OBV and Williams on the daily and weekly still seems to show that it has legs and the Price stays above the 13EMA, yet the on the weekly the 13ema is being touched by price and seems set to test the resistance line above.

Its getting quite late and I think my words are jumbling so off to bed I go.

Worry not what everybody else is doing or not doing and trade your own game, seems to be the best game in town this way you dont have to concern your self too much with what others think, including me.

Do not be surprised which way markets move, just accept whatever direction they taking and deal with it accordingly.

Cheers for now folks and keep your finger on the pulse as usual.

[elZorro]

Did it??? ....

Well my TP maths was wrong I will admit that..and ...I buggered up the formula as well yeah OK..but..the correct TP was around 4.20 so it lowered the reward but I still would've sold at 4.90 ...Now if the TP was say 4.80 then no I wouldn't have sold at 4.90 and I would not have used my H&S formation Strategy. I thought line drawing was Ok ELZ ???....but anyway both of these were the side issues..helping me in my decision making to whether to use this H&S presumed formation strategy or not.

ELZ did you failed to recognise the strategic concept?? ...
Using this strategy (the H&S formation presumption) I created my own opportunity enabling me to do TA work (selling at the neck line break) on the presumed formation until it succeeded or failed When Liz supplied the extra hindsight data TA identified the failure. Now I have the bonus that it doesn't matter whether that H&S formation succeeded to complete or failed to complete, both ways I win and hence eliminated risk.

....because in theory I won.... got in at 65 got out at 4.90 got back in at 5.00...its a success story for me ELZ



Good morning Hoop, I hope you spotted the smiley :eek2:, this means I was having you on..

You're obviously a smart trader, and to back that up, Lizard also felt compelled to sell some of those shares at that point. Yes, I think line drawings are OK, it's just that if I have done a lot of FA work on a share and feel that the SP is well below my valuation, then TA indicators might have to take a back seat sometimes. I'm not very good at TA of course, but many of the posters here, are.

[Jess9]

...to me, the above discussion misses the big point. TA or FA or even "Golden Rules". These are all just tools. It depends how we choose to use them towards mastering our emotions / getting self discipline when investing so as to win more and more constantly. Thats the ultimate goal I would have thought here.

[gazprom1]

It's much appreciated. I don't always follow your charts as I'm not a trader, but they've still proven very useful for timing longer term decisions.

Having said that, I can't see any reason to frequent a forum where everybody agrees with one another ~_~

Excellent post Lissica and I would not be looking if we all agreed. So...

there have been some comments that if you were investe in 2008 or something like that and held through the crash you would still be down a huge amount. I assume that would depend if you were buying the index or the stocks you bought have performed poorly. IF you were a focussed FA investor, continued to invest (yes, doubled down or tripled down), were lucky (thanks Soulman) probably you would have made a fortune.

Many junior resource stocks do not follow the trends of the ASX or similiar indices...they may be impacted by the movements of the indices but are mainly affected by news flows re drilling. Great examples recently were TAP - ASX down, TAP comes up with postive drill at Zola - up 20%. IF Zola was dry, TAP (did not own) goes down irrespective of whether or not the ASX was up OR down. AMU (owned) - t/over, market down, AMU up 60%. GOR (did not own), good assay results, market down, GOR up. NWE (did not own) was up while index was down and then was down when the index was up purely on the negative drill results out of Southill.

If you are a good TA investor or a good FA investor stick to your knitting.

Have a great week EVERYONE!!!!

[JBmurc]

Overall we all have are individual investment styles if it works you keep at it. there is only so much time one has free to study the market and individual companies an marco an micro forces to affect your investments--

My style(time) is made up of round 90%+ F/A 10%- T/A -I'd never buy into a company without T/A got to know it trend,resistance/support levels,volume history,MA etc but this is only a small amount of time ..compared to the F/A made up of -Economic analysis-Industry analysis-Company analysis

[trackers]

...to me, the above discussion misses the big point. TA or FA or even "Golden Rules". These are all just tools. It depends how we choose to use them towards mastering our emotions / getting self discipline when investing so as to win more and more constantly. Thats the ultimate goal I would have thought here.

I agree Jess - my main losses (or failures to profit) have been through not following sound TA, generally because emotions kick in and my plan goes out the window.

FA + TA + self-discipline = win the game.

Easier said then done, but I'm happy enough (generally) if I slowly improve as time goes on and learn from my mistakes

[Phaedrus]

Take a look at this chart and tell me if you would have sold: Liz, you can't really do worthwhile TA on a chart such as the one you posted.
(1) It is too vertically compressed to show trends clearly.
(2) This problem is exacerbated by using a Log price scale (the bit at the top that we are interested in is just a vaguely wavy line)
(3) It only shows weekly data. With only a single datapoint per week, too much information is lost and accurate signals are impossible.

The following commentary is from the standpoint of an investor who selects their stocks using FA and utilises TA to time their entries and exits. Having identified MAQ as a stock that met all their fundamental requirements our investor notes that it is in a downtrend and therefore delays buying. They draw a tentative trendline and begin to monitor a few indicators, all using default values. Eventually they note a Bullish divergence, the downtrend ends and multiple buy signals are triggered by the oscillators. Time to buy. MAQ then went into a long steady uptrend, which was monitored by the same indicators. After about a year, there was a Bearish Divergence, closely followed by all indicators triggering Sell signals. Our investor had hoped that the uptrend would run further than this because in their opinion MAQ was still well below its theoretical fundamental value. They really didn't want to sell, but knew that what the market thought of a stock was more important than what they thought of it and had no wish to fight the market. True to their system, they reluctantly sold, but resolved to monitor the downtrend (using the same indicators) with a view to buying back in when it ended.

So, here we are at the point where Lizard's chart ends. MAQ was an obvious Sell a couple of months earlier and is now in an accelerating downtrend. We have a confirmed trendline in place, so that and the indicators that gave us such good entry and exit signals should furnish good re-entry signals when the downtrend ends. An excellent profit has been locked in and the further the downtrend runs the happier our investor will be.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/MAQa.gif

Not everyone wants to trade actively, so by way of comparison I have included a Trailing Stop and a standard 200 day Moving Average. These are often used by very conservative investors to keep them on the right side of major trends. Such indicators give fewer signals, but they are triggered later than more active indicators. Conservatism has its price. At this point, very conservative investors would still be holding MAQ. Update to follow.

[Phaedrus]

The downtrend continued, but nowhere near as far as our investor would have liked. Nevertheless, when multiple Buy signals were triggered, they bought, re-entering as planned. MAQ now went into an accelerating uptrend, necessitating a shift to a Log price scale to keep the reaction Lows in line and give a confirmed trendline. After about 3 months it became apparent that the default 14 day RSI was a little too active, so this was set to 24 days to bring its sensitivity into line with the other indicators. 7 months after buying, the default 14 day DMI similarly needed to be increased to 30 days. The RMI continued to work perfectly with the default values. Our investor still holds.

MAQ remains in a nice tidy uptrend. We now have 4 indicators monitoring it and, if desired, it would be easy to add more such as a fast moving average, slow stochastic oscillator etc etc.

Our "conservative investor" would have held throughout. They ran more risk than a more active trader, in that their exit trigger level was (and still is) much further away from the price action and they will give more of their profits back to the market when they exit. Nevertheless, these slow indicators will knock the socks off simply "buying and holding" with no exit strategy at all. All uptrends end, sooner or later.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/MAQb.gif

[drillfix]

uptrends end, sooner or later.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/MAQb.gif


Aint that the truth~! As nothing continues to become worth "infinity".


Hey, Mr.P, love the work on the indicators with 2nd plots in the RSI and DMI by adding a secondary value.

A real classroom day on this thread for a Monday morning :P

[Lizard]

Hi Phaedrus,

Thanks for the charts. I was a bit restricted with what I could show on the freebie charts (while still getting the timeframe right), so agree that they weren't ideal!

Who did best in the end might depend on whether the active investor was game enough to stick their entire stake back in on a "buy" (and whether they still had that amount of cash sitting around when the buy triggered). After all, if their initial stake had been $15000, it would now need to be about $90000 to hold the same number of shares through the next rise and have the same gain as a buy-and-hold scenario.

But risk cuts both ways. They might equally have found equivalent trades elsewhere and diversified their risk. Which is why I said I'd probably do the same again and reduce when I did.

[drillfix]

heres a comparison chart, one which is maintaining trend strength

anyway this is a bit off topic , my fault, so back to the Index chat

AA

TRENDING (Buy and Hold / Medium - Longer Term)
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=3255&d=1300780081

CHOP (Range Bound Traded / Short Terms)
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=3256&d=1300780637




Hi AA,

I was previously meaning to reply to this post you made a while back for sometime to say Good Post mate, so that others whom are not quite into charting too much can take another look and hopefully understand and take in the significance with the example pics as they are an excellent example to follow what to look for and which serves a good reminder for both Traders or Investors alike.

There is nothing wrong with Range trading either providing you know how to deal with your entries and exits so just another note for those who find themselves in range bound stocks which there are numerous stocks trading like this.

So anyway, just sounding off to let you know its appreciated and again, a good post for others to take note of.

Cheers~!


ps: forgive me, but I added some annotations to your chart links to show which is which.

[drillfix]

Hi AA, thanks for the ADX post, and good bit of info there as usual and for many to also see, so cheers~!



Now here is a post for those who watch the daily ASX or XAO chart


XAO daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/obuhj74otsggpz5r9la2.png


As you can see a bounce down off the declining oblique resistance line. It seems a test of the 13EMA below could be on the cards and then a bounce up from that? Who knows as the weekly also got knocked down off the 13EMA as well and now turned red.

Daily OBV and RSI are not breaking upwards as much as one would hope.

Lets see what tomorrow brings. US, EU, UK have provided positive lead so far, but the ASX seems to prefer to dance its own tune it seems.

Cheers for now folks and cya all tomorrow.

[drillfix]

Anybody else here get the feeling the XAO is just pottering around waiting for Hang Seng and the Nikkei to offer some direction?

[winner69]

Drill ... this guy reckons ASX200 to go to 5500 this year

Benchmark sharemarket index to cross 5500 by year end, Citi says
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/benchmark-to-cross-5500-by-year-end-citi-says/story-e6frg916-1226030129721

[drillfix]

Drill ... this guy reckons ASX200 to go to 5500 this year

Benchmark sharemarket index to cross 5500 by year end, Citi says
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/benchmark-to-cross-5500-by-year-end-citi-says/story-e6frg916-1226030129721


Hi winner,

Well, he is from Citi is he not? Another US bank which has had a hand out and with such they will want self fulfilling prophecy to work in their favour surely so why not take a stab and try to make it happen...LOL.

What is your thoughts on that there Winner? Do you subscribe to his view or possibility?

To me the truthis, anything could happen and I am open to it either way, meaning I am neither here, nor there about that because tomorrow is what is important while we live in the moment.

Or just perhaps he is seeing what is shown on the Right Weekly Chart of yesterdays XAO which I posted last night early this morning:



XAO daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/obuhj74otsggpz5r9la2.png


Can you see the Oblique diagonal Resistance line there which points right up to 5,500 (actually just below it).

Perhaps he sees that as an 8 month target.

To me, very possible depending on how much Junk, or Destruction the world does in the EU, US, ASIA or Middle East wherever.

Or actually, should I say, it very possible depending on how much that Does Not happen before now and then, meaning the Less the better the odds for reaching that target yet its only a target, but saying that, if other analysts also see the weekly Resistance line as the target then self prophecy can be very realistic depending on Situation Analysis while time passes us by.

What to believe is all up to us I reckon, it just is what it is, nothing more, nothing less. This way, That way, whichever.

Will post another dual XAO later on tonight as usual.

Have a nice night folks.

ps: good teaching for others there AA

[drillfix]

What to believe is all up to us I reckon, it just is what it is, nothing more, nothing less. This way, That way, whichever.

Will post another dual XAO later on tonight as usual.



Hey Winner, sorry for not keeping to my word and posting another chart. I got pretty zapped out last night and woke and slept and woke and slept and did other tasks than charting.


Back to now and today.

Does anybody else out there feel a slow lag in the small caps at all?, as in the Small Ords has a feel about it with complete lack of movement or interest, and if so it seems short lived.

I mean sure the market is moving, but small caps seem to be treading water without any conviction whatsoever.


Time to put on blue chip shoes I guess and trade a Bank or Major Minor or something.

[Corporate]

Phaedurs, back in the green after today are we?

[gazprom1]

Phaedurs, back in the green after today are we?

...possibly is Corporate as the market has moved nicely so the TA investors could be coming back. Looking forward to seeing the chart.

[drillfix]

Wow, All Ordinaries 4,915.40 atm.

Currently touching upon near the oblique resistance line.

Should we break through that Corporate then you will not even have to ask about other green lines as it will be a test of 5,000 next.

Market seems to have legs, with many Blue Chips taking the stride and leading the way. Question is, will it continue to have legs and will Micro's follow?

This sure will be answered by Friday one would think.

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds330.gif

[Corporate]

Thanks P! Appreciate your work as always.

[JBmurc]

hey Phaehrus just wondering with all you T/A skills do you trade short term (an pay TAX) or invest longer term I don't see you on either ASX or NZX comp
or are you into Warrants,futures etc

[percy]

Thanks P! Appreciate your work as always.

Me too.thank you phaedrus.

[Phaedrus]

Generally speaking I trade short-term in the USA, medium-term in Australia and long-term in NZ where I rely on dividends to cover everyday living expenses. Since the market provides my sole source of income, I would have trouble convincing the IRD that it is all just a hobby! I like paying tax because the more I pay, the better I am doing. My ambition is to pay even more. I find the markets are quite volatile enough for my tastes without looking for extra leverage, so I steer well clear of warrants, futures and margin buying.

[JBmurc]

Generally speaking I trade short-term in the USA, medium-term in Australia and long-term in NZ where I rely on dividends to cover everyday living expenses. Since the market provides my sole source of income, I would have trouble convincing the IRD that it is all just a hobby! I like paying tax because the more I pay, the better I am doing. My ambition is to pay even more. I find the markets are quite volatile enough for my tastes without looking for extra leverage, so I steer well clear of warrants, futures and margin buying.

sounds like a good plan .. last day for my Fin year tommorrow looks like another good sized Tax bill so pretty happy the company made another good EBIT ,worst thing is as i'm 100% invested I'll have to sell quit a few shares to pay the TAX should have a few weeks before the accountant will have the excat numbers so here's hoping for a pull -back tommrow but a huge bounce on friday an over the next few weeks

[Corporate]

Phaedrus, going back to the MAQ chart you posted I have a question around drawing trend lines that I've never fully understood. As you hopefully can see, I have butchered your chart with a crude line and circle care of Microsoft paint.

Say I purchase MAQ in July 2010 and it is now the beginning of September 2010. I draw a the pink trend line and sit back and enjoy some more capital appreciation. Now if I follow my rules I'm going to sell when the trend line is broken in late September 2010. However, with the benefit of hindsight I have obviously drawn the trend line to steep and exited too early!

How do I go about learning from this mistake?

3297?

[drillfix]

Hi folks, good evening or good morning whichever suits.

For all those who follow my PRT chart posts, here is yesterdays XAO with views of where to or where we have been so to speak.

XAO daily and weekly >>>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/vlsclojbca7rbgalzc.png


Compared to the previous chart posted > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/obuhj74otsggpz5r9la2.png

What is different beside the up move we can see that:

Yesterdays Daily Chart now has an oblique declining resistance line that has turned green and has now become support.
Yesterdays Weekly Chart now has 1 weekly declining resistance line that has turned green and has now become support.

I believe the daily has more legs to it still as too does the weekly.

I also believe we will test 5,035 as shown on the right hand weekly chart as well as the daily at some stage in the near future, though one cannot say exactly when, though technically, it seems set to be the only thing in the way so like magnetism it will attract accordingly, unless world global issues start to crack through and become prevelant.


Should that happen then things may start to appear quite toppy by then perhaps but and it will be then and only then whereby we need to ask ourselves what type of conviction there is both technically and with global fundamentals. Should a failure to break and hold above 5,025 to 5,50 then we could be heading down a quite a fast ski slope.

Even if we fail to make 4,960 we could be in some serious trouble, but at least we will get that answer quite soon in the short term.

Rather than babble about what may or may not be, I guess lets just one day at a time for what it is and see where that takes us.

Cheers for now folks and good night/morning.

[ratkin]

Generally speaking I trade short-term in the USA, medium-term in Australia and long-term in NZ where I rely on dividends to cover everyday living expenses. .

How can you hold NZ stocks long term ? dont you have to exit them all everytime your indicator goes yellow/red.?
If you do this you are likely to miss out on many dividends , and if you rely on them then thats not good.

Seems like you putting all your eggs in the stock basket. Prolonged red and you have no trading OR any dividend income to rely on.

[Jess9]

Thanks from me also Phaedrus.

[gazprom1]

Natural gas prices on the rise today...Obama rattling the cage of oil saying they (USA) want to cut their dependence on foreign oil - heard it all before. TA guys should be piling back into the market again today....I am trying to sell a few shares today that I hope will push through my target price.

[Corporate]

How can you hold NZ stocks long term ? dont you have to exit them all everytime your indicator goes yellow/red.?

ratkin, that's not a sensible approach. The tool is an indicator of the markets sentiment. I'm sure Phaedrus looks at each stock within his portfolio independently of the tool.

[percy]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds330.gif

Phaedrus
I have just had another look at the chart,and an surprised the SP500 indicator at the bottom of the chart has been bullish since last September and has not shown bearish red with recent "dip"?

[Phaedrus]

Well spotted. Such divergence between the 2 Indices is very unusual. Any AllOrds weakness is normally accompanied and confirmed by SP500 weakness.

[trackers]

Dow up again overnight.

Also, I see that All Ords is finally back into positives for the year as of yesterday (whereas US markets are up 5%!)

[Phaedrus]

How can you hold NZ stocks long term?By using Longterm indicators. I once held FBU for nearly 7 years, for example.


Don't you have to exit them all everytime your indicator goes yellow/red?NO. My system mandates that if the Index goes yellow/red, I must "act on all Sell signals". Can you see that this does NOT mean I have to "Exit them all"?


If you do this you are likely to miss out on many dividends, and if you rely on them then thats not good.There is of course some compensation in that sale proceeds end up in an interest bearing call account. Ratkin, in 2008, when the NZ market dropped 40%, FBU dropped over 60%. Do you really think it would have been worth hanging in there for the sake of a few dividends when they were being completely swamped by drops of this magnitude? Dividends are important to me - but not as important as the preservation of my capital.


Seems like you putting all your eggs in the stock basket. Prolonged red and you have no trading OR any dividend income to rely on.Prolonged red and it is best to be out of the market - regardless of missing out on dividends. Don't forget that a (US) "red" falling market identifies perfect conditions for profiting by going Short. At worst, I can get by just fine on call account interest and short profits.

[Phaedrus]

Phaedrus, going back to the MAQ chart you posted I have a question around drawing trend lines that I've never fully understood. Say I purchase MAQ in July 2010 and it is now the beginning of September 2010. I draw a the pink trend line and sit back and enjoy some more capital appreciation. Now if I follow my rules I'm going to sell when the trend line is broken in late September 2010. However, with the benefit of hindsight I have obviously drawn the trend line too steep and exited too early! How do I go about learning from this mistake?If your plan was to exit whenever that trendline was broken, keeping to that plan was not a mistake. Another "short-term" trendline drawn on the highs of the downtrend that flicked you out would have got you back in again at less that you sold for. You are acting like a short-term trader, that's all.

If, however, you are not interested in trading that frequently, consider these points :-
(1) That was an unconfirmed trendline.
(2) You acted on the basis of a single indicator.
(3) None of the other featured indicators had triggered Sell signals.

If your aim was to trade the "medium-term" trend, then you would want to act on the consensus of the indicators shown in the chart and to sell in September would have been a "mistake". See how the next trendline you could have drawn has been confirmed and when it is broken it will give a more reliable exit signal especially if accompanied by other indicators firing sell signals as well.

If you want to trade the "long-term" trend, you would use the 2 slowest indicators featured on the chart.

The idea is to be clear about what your aims and intentions are and use indicators appropriate to those aims.

[trackers]

RED get out of the market.

I have a green Light, proceed with caution, coppers still ok and so will back the truck up again today.

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-copper-5y.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#5years)

But it is not all lost, Broking Direct are paying good money for your OZ dollars.

AUD0.72134.15%

Whats your plan at the moment Tricha, given copper is on the slide??

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-copper-30d-Large.gif (http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-copper-30d-Large.gif)

[ratkin]

NO. My system mandates that if the Index goes yellow/red, I must "act on all Sell signals". Can you see that this does NOT mean I have to "Exit them all"?
.

Yes i can , which makes

GET OUT

STAY OUT

Rather misleading. When what it really means is dont buy anymore stocks , and act on individual sell signals. Meaning you could in fact be holding quite a few stocks deep in the red zone.

It also seems to run counter to the purpose of the indicator which is to
keep you save and preserve capital should an extreme selloff occur. By not exiting them all you run the risk of being savaged by a very quick sell off . Stops wouldnt protect you as the price would gap past them.
The sell arrow you put on your chart is therefore very misleading as stocks are still being held in the red zone.

" if the Index goes yellow/red, I must "act on all Sell signals"

Surely you act on sell signals whatever colour the main index is

[Phaedrus]

The important thing to keep in mind here Ratkin is that the MSI is simply an objective measure of MARKET strength. What people do with this information (if anything!) is completely up to the individual. That's the subjective bit.


What it really means is dont buy anymore stocks, and act on individual sell signals.
Exactly. Here is what I said when I first posted this idea in 2007. "To me this [weakness] signals a time for caution, during which all stops are tightened, all Sell signals must be acted on, and buying is prohibited".


Meaning you could in fact be holding quite a few stocks deep in the red zone. Of course. Why would anyone want to sell stocks that are still going up?


By not exiting them all, you run the risk of being savaged by a very quick sell off. In my experience there is always warning and "very quick selloffs" (just like market crashes!) do not come out of the blue.


The sell arrow you put on your chart is therefore very misleading as stocks are still being held in the red zone The red arrow marks where the market as a whole showed measurable weakness. At that point (as at any other) some stocks will be strong while others will be weak. The red arrow does NOT purport to mark the point at which all stocks are weak!


You say :- If the Index goes yellow/red, I must "act on all Sell signals".
Surely you act on sell signals whatever colour the main index is.The usual approach is to act on the consensus of a group of indicators and only sell when the majority of them have been triggered. If the overall market is red, I am supposed to act on any sell signal. This is just how I utilise the MSI though - others may choose to use it differently.

[ratkin]

In my experience there is always warning and "very quick selloffs" (just like market crashes!) do not come out of the blue.
.

I thought the chart was the warning.

In light of your last post i still see the big words GET OUT and STAY OUT to be misleading, when in reality all that has happened is
you have increased your vigilance in the light of market weakness

[Phaedrus]

Ratkin, I can't be writing an essay on the charts themselves. There is only room there for brief indicative labels and comments.

GET OUT is not a blanket directive. It means get out if, when, as etc etc etc.... as has been exhaustively discussed in other posts.

Similarly, STAY OUT is not an absolute order. It means stay out until, unless yadda yadda yadda..... as has been exhaustively discussed in other posts.

[Footsie]

thanks P. keep on posting em

[drillfix]

Well, whats up with the ASX today anybody, seems like a split personality to me. Half the banks on edge of their seats and the other have, eating lunch and laughing away, so who knows.

Its more like Tip Toe up the stair case to a silent new level without anybody noticing. Weird, but I guess it is what it is.

[Corporate]

If your plan was to exit whenever that trendline was broken, keeping to that plan was not a mistake. Another "short-term" trendline drawn on the highs of the downtrend that flicked you out would have got you back in again at less that you sold for. You are acting like a short-term trader, that's all.

If, however, you are not interested in trading that frequently, consider these points :-
(1) That was an unconfirmed trendline.
(2) You acted on the basis of a single indicator.
(3) None of the other featured indicators had triggered Sell signals.

If your aim was to trade the "medium-term" trend, then you would want to act on the consensus of the indicators shown in the chart and to sell in September would have been a "mistake". See how the next trendline you could have drawn has been confirmed and when it is broken it will give a more reliable exit signal especially if accompanied by other indicators firing sell signals as well.

If you want to trade the "long-term" trend, you would use the 2 slowest indicators featured on the chart.

The idea is to be clear about what your aims and intentions are and use indicators appropriate to those aims.

Thanks P, that's very clear. I'd really appreciate your thoughts on WPG. I'm looking to time a good entry. I'll leave a message on that thread.

Cheers,
C

[drillfix]

Its more like Tip Toe up the stair case to a silent new level without anybody noticing. Weird, but I guess it is what it is.


Hello ME, how am I tonight? I am good thanks~! Want to see a chart from todays tip toe action. Yes please Me and thanks in advance.

So,

XAO daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/jorl5v0jk6zd6lvll49b.png


Observations

Drawn in the boxes on both charts are some key points for both indicators which on the daily and the weekly looks quite strong.

It is my hope that the XAO can easily climb past 4,960 which would give a sense of topping the previous lower high, but ultimately we still need to test the level of 5,022 which is were the merged mixed resistance both horizontal & oblique resistance meet.

To me, this will be the wait and see moment and a true test that will either pop or snap back down or become completely evident of Conviction, because no matter which way you slice the cake there appears to be a complete lack of Conviction floating around. May not concern you, but it sure plays with my head thinking about this.

Also reflecting that on the right side of the chart, the weekly seems to be off to test the 5,030 -40 level and continue on with Conviction (yet again).

I hope that time does not run out and the indicators of the Williams %R on the daily turns down thus potentially ReTesting the merging EMA lines.

Speaking of EMA lines you can also see boxed an area where by the 13ema is attempting to cross both the 30ema and the 90ema, which may I add is also on the falling Oblique support line which was previously resistance.

Should we get this crossover of EMA's over tomorrow and some part of next week, we could be testing the previous levels (highs) which also previously failed, so a breakthrough will be VERY desirable for the Bulls to potentially completely gain back control.

Now saying that, lets not forget and view the daily chart again which shows the bulls have been in control for 10 out of the last 12 Trading days. But I repeat yet again. It seems though "without conviction".

Now I am starting to sound like a looped Mp3 so I better sign off now and perhaps watch a movie instead.

Well, Good night me, you sleep well. Yep and thanks, I sure will :P

[evilroyrule]

Hello ME, how am I tonight? I am good thanks~! Want to see a chart from todays tip toe action. Yes please Me and thanks in advance.

So,

XAO daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/jorl5v0jk6zd6lvll49b.png

Observations

Drawn in the boxes on both charts are some key points for both indicators which on the daily and the weekly looks quite strong.

It is my hope that the XAO can easily climb past 4,960 which would give a sense of topping the previous lower high, but ultimately we still need to test the level of 5,022 which is were the merged mixed resistance both horizontal & oblique resistance meet.

To me, this will be the wait and see moment and a true test that will either pop or snap back down or become completely evident of Conviction, because no matter which way you slice the cake there appears to be a complete lack of Conviction floating around. May not concern you, but it sure plays with my head thinking about this.

Also reflecting that on the right side of the chart, the weekly seems to be off to test the 5,030 -40 level and continue on with Conviction (yet again).

I hope that time does not run out and the indicators of the Williams %R on the daily turns down thus potentially ReTesting the merging EMA lines.

Speaking of EMA lines you can also see boxed an area where by the 13ema is attempting to cross both the 30ema and the 90ema, which may I add is also on the falling Oblique support line which was previously resistance.

Should we get this crossover of EMA's over tomorrow and some part of next week, we could be testing the previous levels (highs) which also previously failed, so a breakthrough will be VERY desirable for the Bulls to potentially completely gain back control.

Now saying that, lets not forget and view the daily chart again which shows the bulls have been in control for 10 out of the last 12 Trading days. But I repeat yet again. It seems though "without conviction".

Now I am starting to sound like a looped Mp3 so I better sign off now and perhaps watch a movie instead.

Well, Good night me, you sleep well. Yep and thanks, I sure will :P

drilly you mad bastard,

did we ever find out how to steal the software/platform from flemo so we can see who is doing the buying/selling??? :ohmy:

[trackers]

Thanks for the charts Drilly, I enjoy them!

Some offshore context:

In the US, the Dow Jones industrial average closed its best start to the year since 1999 Thursday, rising 6.4 per cent in the first three months. The index of 30 large companies gained 742 points in that stretch.
Measured against other first quarters, that's the largest point gain since 1998 and the second best on record.


http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/stocks-set-to-start-flat-as-commodities-surge-20110401-1cnus.html

[drillfix]

drilly you mad bastard,

did we ever find out how to steal the software/platform from flemo so we can see who is doing the buying/selling??? :ohmy:

Haahaa, nearly getting as mad as you now ER.. LOL

Steve told us what platform/site/subscription he was using in the CZN thread I think it was, but cant remember off the top of my head.



Thanks for the charts Drilly, I enjoy them!


Thanks Trackers, I appreciate a sound off every now and then, other wise its back to Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad and routine chart posting and self talk :P

[tricha]

Whats your plan at the moment Tricha, given copper is on the slide??

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-copper-30d-Large.gif (http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-copper-30d-Large.gif)

Hmm, I am being very wary, sold some of my ill gotton gains today.

The dollar is going back down and so are basic metals :confused: double whammy to producers.

Oil is still high. ( with the Saudi's so called 4 million barrels of surplus.:confused: )
Airlines are going back into the red, reminds me of the last oil spike, what we do know is, consumer spending is dropping.
Our ATM , which are our houses are still stagnent or dropping and we have inflation.

Whats next, my best guess is a repeat of the last oil spike :ohmy: and we all know what that means.


http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFLDE72U0T920110331
METALS-Copper ends 1st quarter down on slack China demand

Thu Mar 31, 2011 7:06pm GMT



* Chinese demand concerns drag copper down 2.4 pct in Q1 * LME copper stocks continue builds, compound demand worry

[drillfix]

Tricha, I think I would be more concerned with some of the back yard dealings going on with the EU at the moment.

Just when things start to smooth out after a crisis, we have a replacement crisis, that replaces the current crisis which took the light off the past crisis, which had always been a crisis sitting in the background waiting till be dealt with as a crisis with merit and worthy of being a crisis.


Ahh well, take your pick, which crisis would you fancy, plenty to go around for everyone :P

[Hoop]

Tricia
Don't get to hung up over Copper charts.

Copper is a good indicator for growth therefore a good economic indicator.
Sharemarket research (Crestmont Research..that article I told you to read + with your bottle of Port :)) proved that there is no correlation between economic growth and sharemarket indexes...a paradox to the layman but if you go through market theory the answer is clear.

Much research has be done with the uncanny 100% accuracy of copper picking the sharemarket bears bottom after the cyclic bear market's final capitulation phase (Bear Market phase3). Hence Copper is a reliable leading indicator.

Quote from Russell Napiers book..."* Commodities Count. The end of commodity price declines also marked all 4 major equity lows, with copper playing a prominent role as it preceded or coincided with every equity rebound....."
see my post in the Investing Strategies and Secular Bear Market thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets/page10)

It has been shown throughout the short history that copper has a strong correlation during the Equity Market's the period Bear market (3) to Bull market (1) but only during these stages (see chart 2)

The bull market recovery phase is the Bull market(1)... and... as the second phase progresses the copper correlation breaks down.

In theory it is easy to see why..as the commodity prices ease back inflation eases and raw materials prices drop giving better profit margins...also in sharemarket theory inflationary factor is a secondary driver to the market....Note: The economy is not a market driver proven by this simple example that sharemarkets recover off their bottoms while the economy is still in recession.

2 charts

Chart 1...being a reference to the All Ord thread the copper prices are in $A.
The copper index is currently in a bull market and has had a few corrections on its way.
Watching copper end its bull market (whenever that may be) does not mean that the Equity market will follow as there is no correlation at this other end of the spectrum Bull Mkt (3) - Bear market (1) stage.

Chart 2...This chart shows the relationship between Copper and the All Ords index...The picture speaks a 1000 words ...huh?

Note the timing Copper normally breaks its correlation halfway through the Equity cyclic bull market cycle....so theory has it that the all Ords hasn't reached its 3rd and last phase of its Bull market cycle yet...Good news..Ehh...However beware of that 7000 index top level as the All Ords is in a secular Bear market phase.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/CopperAu25032011.png

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/CopperAORD25032011.png

[ratkin]

Whenever i saw a copper bottom, it was a leading indicator that my mother was about to cook tea

[Hoop]

Whenever i saw a copper bottom, it was a leading indicator that my mother was about to cook tea
or wash your clothes?????;)

[corporateraider]

I have no associations that I make with copper bottoms; but whenever I think of coppertone bottoms I fondly recall times in Copacabana.

[drillfix]

Morning/Late evening folks, how was everybody's weekend good? Well hope so.

Seems to be a bit a humor floating around the copper chart usage though as the story goes, each to their own I guess.

One could say that that copper is the Barometer for other metals with regards to direction. But mainly watching such charts, I think it goes hand in hand with a few collaboration of charts to assist in painting a picture or potential overall market direction, strength, or weakness or even diversion to any degree we see. But again, that is up to each of us depending on how we see things.

Sunday night, Monday morning, and now its time to take a quick snapshot o the XAO close last Friday 1st April 2011 just gone.

Here are 2 charts of the XAO daily and weekly, the 1st link without drawing and the 2nd with drawing/marked up.

XAO Daily and weeklys

1st >>>>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/2ewg7c4747ap81jutqom.png

2nd >>>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ier8huazmm94eblyiyzd.png


I seem to enjoy viewing the weekly more as it only shows simple easy does it moves with a clear area of what will be tested. Drawn in are some are the rectangle boxes which out line some of the positives which is most of it on the weekly, as well as a good part of the daily, yet at some stage the daily could become anything with a flick of a switch so to speak, but in the meantime it also remains positive.


One has to wonder if the XAO is nothing but a sleepy Bull that has wondered up the hill after drinking a trough full of Valium, or is it actually going tip toe with caution due to the past lack of conviction, yet seems make gains which have been 11 Days OUT OF 13 Days. That is a good score to keep in mind and its a march that probably has not been expected by many of the watchers here.

Having said that, I keep resorting back to this conviction and scratching my head to how in the world could this XAO do this and who and what is exactly driving this. OR, more to the point, what is not driving this or who is NOT participating. Perhaps its not conviction at all, but more so, it is the Lack of certain Players in the market who are sitting and waiting and when the key day arrives at some point on the above chart, it may all either do this:

1. Come tumbling down with a crash, bang, boom, rapid fall, or perhaps a little by little process just like the way it went up?
or
2. Continue to Rise up and then thrust upwards eventually breaking past the key resistance area's and then charge rapidly once it completes a breakthrough?


On the daily, there is most indicators are positive, yet price Pierced through the 4,960 mark where it created a new high at 4,971 but then closed back to 4,960 which could be a neutral or negative sign.

Both 13ema and 30ema have punched through the 90ema which is positive and the 90ema is also running parallel with the 200ema which is also postive.

Intermediate support at 4,873 was also broken 3 days ago and I feel a test of the top of the Bollinger Bands will be on the cards for sometime this week or days a head, perhaps today, who knows, but it will and should happen, as should a test of 5,000

Now that we are this far upward, we eventually also should see or can expect a test of Key Resistance at 5,025 appox.
The last time this happened there were 9 days involved and 7 days out of those 9 days were actually Key resistance tests with only slight poping its head up yet continually getting rejected like some of John West's tuna or something.

So, here is a tip folks, If the XAO does not break through within the 1st, 2nd or 3rd time, the chances that it is going to break through become less and less and we will then have made a double tops, which means for real again "Down the Rabbit Hole" we go. BUT that is only a big IF and as I always continually say to anybody who actually reads my Waffling Posts, to Cross that bridge when and if we come to it so lets not think about it now until we get there. YET lets be aware of what that means if such event plays out like that and be prpared.

On the other hand if we break through it, we could be looking at making higher highs, and hopefully lower, lows. But like just mentioned, who is to say what the world will have in-store for us tomorrow, next week, next month etc.

We are only surfers of market sentiment of which the tide comes and goes in and out and takes our investments with it for usually the most part it anyway.


Lastly folks, the XAO as many of you know also has many positive leads to start the week off (US, EU, UK, HK etc) so lets see what this day and week brings. No doubt there will be opportunities scattered all over the place, with many trading or stock piling on their fav stocks or ones that looks set to rumble, which there appears to be a few staring to prime.

Adding to the upward force of the XAO would also be the AUDUSD touching higher highs and it looks set to continue its push upward, which could be the silent partner type reason of the low volumes in the market. Meaning our lack of volume could possibly be explained by folks out of stocks and into Money markets. But the question there surely be Why?

Well, the simple answer to that would be because that is why. Take a look at the chart below. Now, I would be bold enough to say Yes, it will touch upon $1.05c before the next fortnight which can be seen by viewing the weekly in the following chart.

AUDUSD Daily and weekly >>>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/3bf0xezepg9umipxoqfg.png

As shown, there is reason to see the weekly itching its (insert *funny* word here) off to touch that $1.05 oblique resistance line, and give it time and it will, be it quickly, be it slowly, but it will purely because the target says it will along with the US wanting it to be that way.

Previously we have seen the AUD falling and when these falls have come, we have seen the XAO fall which to me indicates a strong correlation to be coupled.

And to prove this theory more, here is a weekly chart of Both AUDUSD and XAO on the same weekly chart for Correlation:

AUDUSD XAO weekly Correlation >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/v3jua8jn78hjceyxhm1.png

So there is another potential view point to also take into consideration, a coupled AUD to the XAO thus making it possible that any weakness in the AUDUSD will therefore potentially reflect in the XAO.

Well there you have it folks.

Cheers~!

[ratkin]

I like to keep things simple .

Click on the chart to enlarge

3307

Just observing the candles says more than enough about the all ords
Bottoms were as clear as day.

[Hoop]

Ratkin candlesticks are very useful ..but tail watching only???...thats not simple...nor reliable use of candlesticks. If you want to keep things simple and reliable use Phaedrus MSI charts ... P keeps it simple for us folk by using a colour code.

Tail watching ain't simple.
I've added to your chart the dialogue that you or your chartist person had conveniently ignored to add in

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/AllOrdcandlesticks.jpg

[drillfix]

Tricha, as your a copper chart fan, this one is for you so here ya go.

The chart has previously been posted by a fella called redbacka who posts on HC but has his own blog.

Redbacka is a very sincere gentleman whom recently had a tragic family loss which condolences to both him and his family.

I appreciate his chart posting on his own Redbacka Report Blog that he maintains on a blog site and I recommend that people read it if they are into intra-market study of any kind.

Copper Futures >>>> http://i51.tinypic.com/2wfsaz6.png

Reds Copper summary.

Chart is in medium term down trend
MACD below Zero line. Negative.
MACD Histogram at Zero Line. Neutral
RSI below mid-line. Positive.
Stochastic: Below signal line and headed down. Negative..
Critical support of long term uptrend line and 150-Day MA needs to hold.
Copper is a proxy for world economic activity.

[whirly]

Yes condolences to Redback. He's the best read on that other site. Here's his daily blog link for those interested. http://redbackmarketreport.blogspot.com/ .

And despite what you think Drillfix. We do read your posts :-) Thank you and keep it up.

Whirly

[drillfix]

Just a friendly heads up here for those of you who like me feel like a real goose because we forgot about the end of daylight savings.

I got up at my routine completely forgetting about this and now need to re-adjust a bunch of alarms to re-sync my morning routine, plus evening routine also to some degree.

And here was me thinking there was something wrong with the ASX start-up routine :P

There you go~!

[drillfix]

Yes condolences to Redback. He's the best read on that other site. Here's his daily blog link for those interested. http://redbackmarketreport.blogspot.com/ .

And despite what you think Drillfix. We do read your posts :-) Thank you and keep it up.

Whirly


Why cheers Whirly, it is much appreciated when somebody sounds off, plus it makes me behave myself too :P

I was just about to edit my post to add Red's blog link when I saw your post with the link. Thanks and well done.

Also I agree completely that Red is a great read. And a very experienced gentleman who has been at markets for years. From reading his posts has gotten me into a habit of posting the way I do (or at least added to it greatly).

Plus, as both Red and Highlandland say, its good to post as such because it keeps you in-touch with what you are seeing, and not that of what only wish to see so in brief means to call it as it is with no prejudice towards what it is.

Great to see Red also using PRT (proRealtime) for his charts now, although they dont seem to format too well in the Hotcopper page size of layout too well unless you go full wide post view. But ahh well, cant have it both ways I guess.

Also, I find it healthy to do and just hope that at times any posts are not Long Winded like my last post which reading back this morning seems tough for some reason, although it was near 3am when I posted it :P

Cheers again Whirly :)

[trackers]

I too read the redbacka report and was pretty shocked when I got to the last para this morning :(

In other news, liked what you wrote this morning drilly esp this bit:

So, here is a tip folks, If the XAO does not break through within the 1st, 2nd or 3rd time, the chances that it is going to break through become less and less and we will then have made a double tops, which means for real again "Down the Rabbit Hole" we go. BUT that is only a big IF and as I always continually say to anybody who actually reads my Waffling Posts, to Cross that bridge when and if we come to it so lets not think about it now until we get there. YET lets be aware of what that means if such event plays out like that and be prepared.

[Phaedrus]

So......... If the XAO doesn't go up, it might go down?

[trackers]

I was more thinking about watching how XAO trades around resistance points at the 5k mark, but yes I see your point there

[Hoop]

at 4993 so its having another crack at 5000.

All ords is still in a cyclic bull market cycle...often in the middle of a cyclic Bull market cycle (phase2) there is a cooling off or breather period and that period can be lengthy+++++...one would expect this 5040 -5050 resistance level to fail eventually.

Everyone has been talking about up and down ..no one has be observant enough to mentioned what is really happening...its going sideways ...strangely enough this has been happening since October 2009 ...surely after all this time the media would have observed this......nah ..too busy second guessing on what will probably never happen.

+++++ The cyclic Bull market cycle after the crash in 2002 -2003 on the DOW showed the 3 distinct textbook Bull market phases ---
1...disbelieving but rapid uptrend recovery from crash
2.....paused for a period Feb2004 to Dec2005
3.....rapid uptrend euphoria climax.
Sometimes the second phase pause is very short and not distinct.

[drillfix]

So......... If the XAO doesn't go up, it might go down?


Not sure who you are posting this too Mr.P

But if its me you are trying to bait then I will take it by saying its one way or the other, with the exception of what hoop just pointed out, if its not going higher, or going to go lower, then no doubt we will experience the the actions of both going up and going down even be it that is will be Range Bound, until market forces makes or big boys club where the big fat guys, smoking big cigars make up their mind what they would like to do or what will better position them. :P

[ratkin]

Never mind cigars , what the heck are you smoking ? :D

[STRAT]

So......... If the XAO doesn't go up, it might go down?Thats two of three possibilities I reckon :D

[tricha]

Tricha, as your a copper chart fan, this one is for you so here ya go.

The chart has previously been posted by a fella called redbacka who posts on HC but has his own blog.

Redbacka is a very sincere gentleman whom recently had a tragic family loss which condolences to both him and his family.

I appreciate his chart posting on his own Redbacka Report Blog that he maintains on a blog site and I recommend that people read it if they are into intra-market study of any kind.

Copper Futures >>>> http://i51.tinypic.com/2wfsaz6.png

Reds Copper summary.

Chart is in medium term down trend
MACD below Zero line. Negative.
MACD Histogram at Zero Line. Neutral
RSI below mid-line. Positive.
Stochastic: Below signal line and headed down. Negative..
Critical support of long term uptrend line and 150-Day MA needs to hold.
Copper is a proxy for world economic activity.

Cheers Drillfix, great stuff, Cu is the proxy for the ASX, with gas thrown in for good measure.

[drillfix]

Hi folks,

Well the XAO certainly took a nice lead from oversea's and did a bit of a waltz upwards thats for sure. XAO tested a high of 4,997.900

Question here now is are we getting closer to an Orchestrated Crunch time? Meaning, the XAO seems set to test the previous the 5,000 + heat zone of resitance.

How many days will it take and up or downs will it be before we either break through, or fall down? Who knows, cross that bridge when it happens, but yield the warnings of the indicators of W%R, OBV, RSI divergence along with MACD histogram shrinking downwards on both the Daily and Weekly.


Here is Mondays chart of the XAO,

XAO Daily and Weeky >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/yieuc3yew575inl4w7l.png



No real alarm atm, but the next few days we may start to see cracks in indicators beginning to show which may indicate the XAO needing to take a breather, IMO.

Like always, time will tell.

Cheers.

[drillfix]

Hey again Folks,

Thought I would throw up a couple more charts for all you Gold and Silver Fans out there whom appreciate a nice chart with support lines included which are auto drawn on the PRT charts that we use or post here, yet sometimes we also manually add drawn supports too depending on how the mathematics pan out so to speak.

In them meantime enjoy.


Gold Spot price in USD daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/24uldlhlanrzd55pxbuv.png


Silver Spot price in USD daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/e2puggjmqc3itnvwp76.png


Ain't that silver been hauling butt right up the chart there and broken through oblique resistance which now has become support, no doubt there will be a breather at some stage but it seems in quite a bit of a hurry to bag $40.00 an Oz dont you think?

Will see how this plays out over the next couple of days and will certainly add these charts to the Weekly summary sometime over the weekend.

Time for sleep now so see you in a few hours.

Cheers again~!

[drillfix]

Hi folks,

Well, there we have it, mid morning 5th April and the All Ordinaries is up 15.9 points and has hit 5,000.60

Question like before is, what will happen over the next couple of days. Keep alert over the next few days thats for sure, because IMO it will either make you a lot of money or it will take from you a lot of money.

But then when is that different than any other day? Because not every other day we are sitting on 5,000 and need to test the 5,020+ zone and break free of that level or play the treading water game where by we bounce back and forth a few times to find direction.

[drillfix]

Hi again people, just a brief one tonight as its quite late again (normal for me I guess).

Here is Tuesdays XAO daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/9i7pivmzwq6vapbchbk1.png

Shown is the journey of the XAO testing oblique resistance but no doubt we will eventually see a test of the horizontal resistance at 5,025 which will be the main game play here. (IMO).

This week and next will show a picture of what may or may not transpire within indicators and support and resistance levels, plus give us a potential sign of future direction so guess we better wait until that time presents itself.

Cheers again.

[drillfix]

Yes yes yes, I know what many of you are thinking. Not another XAO chart? We only just got one this AM from yesterdays chart....LOL

Well, yes I am and I promise you kind and nice folks whom actually take the time to read my blether or bollocks (call it whatever) along with my charts, that after the XAO or ASX markets get its confirmed direction, I will completely back off and only post a weekly summary which will be no doubt much comprehensive than a daily tiresome update.

You see, regardless of which way this goes, I am enthused completely to witness either a breakthrough or a fall after the previous tests back in Feb 2011 earlier this year.

For me, it appears to be drawing to a climax whereby the indicators (even though strong) might gradually turn down, or continue to power on through my targeted Horizontal resistance mark of 5,025 which, We need to break past and hold this if we are going to continue going up. If not we will be heading for a Fall, and/or , in which we could then be going through a trading Range until a decision on Global Markets pulls us one way or the other.

Many of you folks out there already know and are up to speed on the quantity of Crisis the Lurks in the background, and have not been addressed or resolved so we must not act like we are completely invincible just because we have a good looking chart (which may I add also appears to lack conviction).

So lets be done with this quickly and post the chart.


Wednesday's XAO daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/w10i5v94oxo0t7i6dl49.png


Seems we have had quite a few previous changes in oblique support and resistance colour changing throughout the past couple of weeks.

The weekly chart is just a confirmation of the daily chart yet shows confirmations of the daily charts actions.

As shown on the daily, we are now just a kick in the arse distance from the 1st test. How many tests there are will depend on keeping and eye on some divergence either on OBV, RSI and a declining MACD histogram which currently is positive. Should this start to fade to smaller block lines then I think some of us here depending on what type of trader we are should at least have some type of plan in place whether it be a Resistance Rejection Plan, or a Resistance Broken plan.

Tomorrow is another day, so lets see what this brings hey.

Cheers~!

[airedale]

Hi Drillfix, I agree that the present rally may be at a turning point and the market could well drop before going in to a trading range. We are almost at the month of May, and the old adage says "sell in May and go away". That could also mean....sell in April as it is a rough rule of thumb.

[drillfix]

Hi Drillfix, I agree that the present rally may be at a turning point and the market could well drop before going in to a trading range. We are almost at the month of May, and the old adage says "sell in May and go away". That could also mean....sell in April as it is a rough rule of thumb.


Hi Airedale,

Yes that is a concern and I agree re May - Walk Away, but yet as you point out which I also interpret that old saying could be for the Johnny come lately's who sell in May only for the Early birds who want out the door first to use April as the Fire Escape. But who knows, I guess over the next week we sure will find out how this is going to play out.

I guess the trick for us is to read how this is going to play out before it happens either saving a stack of cash or if we are wrong, having to pay a premium to buy back in again should the run continue.

For whatever reason, I find myself liking the thought of paying a premium to get back in over what could be a potential weighted loss to have to crawl back so my finger will be completely on the pulse until the direction is clear.

[ratkin]

I thought P had shown the sell in May was a fallacy for the aussie market

[tricha]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Phaedrus http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=341938#post341938)
So......... If the XAO doesn't go up, it might go down?




Thats two of three possibilities I reckon :D

You are such a good stiirrer Strat :t_up:, Phaedrus might need to go outside and have a close look at the clouds.
The cloud I am looking at says it might go down, but the one I looked at yesterday, said otherwise ;)

[STRAT]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Phaedrus http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=341938#post341938)
So......... If the XAO doesn't go up, it might go down?





You are such a good stiirrer Strat :t_up:, Phaedrus might need to go outside and have a close look at the clouds.
The cloud I am looking at says it might go down, but the one I looked at yesterday, said otherwise ;)Hi Tricha.
Not that good it would seem :(. I was sticking my ore in a pot already being stirred but you missed it :D

[Phaedrus]

The old adage says "sell in May and go away".


I agree re May - Walk Away

Well, I disagree. Strongly! The old adage is, in fact, garbage.

In the Australian market, over the last 20 years, the "best 6 months" holding strategy has NOT been Nov - April. March - August has been the best 6 month holding period - but even that clearly underperforms just buying and holding! The strategy simply doesn't work.

Perhaps you guys didn't see this post :-
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6971-All-Ords-Index.&p=326464#post326464

[drillfix]

Well, I disagree. Strongly! The old adage is, in fact, garbage.

In the Australian market, over the last 20 years, the "best 6 months" holding strategy has NOT been Nov - April. March - August has been the best 6 month holding period - but even that clearly underperforms just buying and holding! The strategy simply doesn't work.

Perhaps you guys didn't see this post :-
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6971-All-Ords-Index.&p=326464#post326464


Ahh haaa, See Airedale, we are busted. The TA cops have got us and dragged us in for questioning or lecturing. :P

Mr.P, can you tell me, do we get a money back guarantee with that wonderful chart of 20 years back testing of the Adage so to speak, what or why do you believe that this year will be the same as previous years on the chart?

Perhaps I should not try to preempt what is going to happen this year with may or june, but to me there is still "not all is right" unresolved and floating around out there at the moment in the background.

Do Black Swans never happen in these months for some reason? :)

[Phaedrus]

Mr.P, can you tell me, do we get a money back guarantee with that wonderful chart of 20 years back testing of the Adage so to speak, what or why do you believe that this year will be the same as previous years on the chart?There are no money back guarantees in this business, Drilly, but let me turn your question around. Do you have any cogent reason to believe that this year will NOT be the same as all previous years on the chart? (Keep in mind that, in each and every year for twenty years, selling in May has been a losing strategy, significantly under-performing simply "buying and holding".) The odds that this year will be the same are very, very high indeed. How many consecutive failures would it take to convince you that this myth is busted?


To me there is still "not all is right" unresolved and floating around out there at the moment in the background.Well, the market is at a 2.5 year high and the MSI simply can't go any more positive than it is. A time for caution will come, of course, but technical indicators should give us an objective assessment of market strength and provide early warning of any developing weakness.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds47.gif

[drillfix]

Agreed, no guarantee's whatsoever.

Well, some good points there indeed Mr.P. Although, some surely would treat the selling part from either a strategy basis meaning, for those who wish to make a loss so perhaps a losing strategy may pay for some to do so. But then surely this would not apply to the whole of the market or everybody in it.

We should have you appear on MythBusters Phaedrus...LOL Yes think that sometimes we agree with things randomly without realising at times and and especially after preaching to myself let alone in other posts on the importance to be "in the moment" or cross that bridge when we get to it. So guilty there your honor, I guess I plead insane on that one.

Your case on the chart shows merit with odds for sure, though with regards to what reason this year will not be the same? Well, I guess back revert back my point and confession above about being in the moment, and cross that bridge should and if we come to it.

I also realise the MSI cannot go any more positive, however to me, there are some things that the MSI does not show us while it is as high as it is. These things are to me are the failure of global markets to address problems that still exist today be it in the US, EU as a couple of examples to mention, as well quite a few other things which would take some time and detail to post about.

Meaning one can never dismiss a Black Swan if and when it arrives, but then if we knew it were to arrive I guess we could not call it a Black Swan. Yet in saying that there seem to be quite a few things at in future can or could act like a black swan due to the sheer fact that global markets have not address some past issues that may come back at us, which is what my point is I guess.

[ratkin]

Perhaps I should not try to preempt what is going to happen this year with may or june, but to me there is still "not all is right" unresolved and floating around out there at the moment in the background.


Hence the expression " a bull market climbs a wall of worry"

[tricha]

Well, I disagree. Strongly! The old adage is, in fact, garbage.

In the Australian market, over the last 20 years, the "best 6 months" holding strategy has NOT been Nov - April. March - August has been the best 6 month holding period - but even that clearly underperforms just buying and holding! The strategy simply doesn't work.

Perhaps you guys didn't see this post :-
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6971-All-Ords-Index.&p=326464#post326464

Yes Phaedrus is right, well about the S &P 500, which Australia closely follows.

Bunk# 25, average return from 1925 to 2009 is .38% gain, but Sept has a .75% loss.

This comes from "Debunkery" written by Ken Fisher, a very interesting book, which is about money killing myths.

[drillfix]

Well, just a brief post on todays XAO, as specified once the direction is confirmed then I will ease off the daily posts as previously mentioned.

Ok here is the chart:

Thursdays XAO daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/xvvw0mkb0lgugjwemrc.png


Observations for Daily Chart
Indicators.
Daily MACD histogram showing a sign of divergence, negative
W%R still above overbought -20 yet can remain there till whenever, positive.
RSI still strong above at 67 yet not breaking higher at present, still positive.
OBV broken out of the previous range higher, but now pointing slightly down, still positive.

Price and S&R
Price tested 5,022.80 today and labelled it 1 for the 1st test of touching the horizontal 5,025 zone, yet did not punch through, negative.
Price tested and punched through the rising oblique support line which now became resistance, negative.
Price remains above 13, 30, 90, 200 day EMA lines which are also lining up into formation of a potential future upward move, positive.
Upper Bollinger Band shows expansion through the above horizontal resistance, positive. (not highly significant yet noted nonetheless)

Observations for Weekly Chart.
All round the weekly chart remains still quite positive.
One indicator perhaps showing a Neutral sign would be the weekly MACD as both Signal lines and Histogram dot not show the depth of previous months back.
MACD weekly histogram nearly flat on the zero line and the signal line could cross on any positive day.
Another positive would be the ever so slight crossover of the 90EMA crossing above the 200EMA.


Last,
Some of the concerns I continually had were part of the Markings on the Daily Chart with label's 1-7 of the failed attempts to break upwards.
So this time will it be different? Maybe, or Maybe not. Hence it may pay to keep the finger on the pulse in these times over the next day to week.

Time to have an early one now folks, see ya all again today sometime, but its Friday so must duck in and out a couple of times.

Cheers~!

[ratkin]

Any complaints?

3315

[Hoop]

[QUOTE=ratkin;342438]Any complaints?

None from me ...watching your tails with interest. :mellow::)

[Phaedrus]

Ratkin! After years of disparaging my charts, have you finally gone over to the dark side?

On your chart I can see that the green arrows mark an initial blue candle and the red arrows mark an initial red candle, but I am interested in what actually controls the colour of the candlesticks. For example Red does not equate to a down day or a lower Close or a downtrending candle, so what does it take to make a red candle?

Similarly, I am also curious about what controls the trend ribbon at the bottom of the chart. It is clearly independent from the candle colours, but has some strange anomalies. For example, in the significant downtrend beginning Nov 8, the ribbon remained entirely Bullish for all but one day - yet it went Bearish for a day right in the middle of the current long, strong, unbroken uptrend. It didn't turn Bearish when there was an obvious downtrend around Jan 4 when there were 9 consecutive red candles. What is the trend ribbon measuring?

[Hoop]

Agreed, no guarantee's whatsoever.

...........We should have you appear on MythBusters Phaedrus...LOL .


......I also realise the MSI cannot go any more positive, however to me, there are some things that the MSI does not show us while it is as high as it is. These things are to me are the failure of global markets to address problems that still exist today be it in the US, EU as a couple of examples to mention, as well quite a few other things which would take some time and detail to post about.

Meaning one can never dismiss a Black Swan.........

While we talk about myths...heres another few...
the overall market listens to day by day trivia..
the overall market listens to politicians..
The market is correlated to the economy..
The market often doesn't reflect what is really happening.

True markets can never predict black swans but they will react to one if it is big enough to affect the marketplace. ...So this proves that no investor can predict the market 90 - 100% of the time. However Black Swans are very very rare animals

For me, P's MSI shows enough for what the investor needs to know.
Drilly notice how many events the sharemarket have reacted to in a fearful way in the last 3 years ...the rest is overblown media hype....and therefore reading the news all the time can and does warp the senses.

We as investors get continuously bombarded with excellent very valuable information, good somewhat needed information, trivial information, Junk information (to help adverts), disinformation ( false logic or spin) and straight out lies... At some point us investors should access the situation and look back and summarise and filter out what is good and what is not ...I use charts..
It takes a chart or two (P's MSI type chart should be one essential chart) to realise what is real and what is imaginary within the marketplace you invest in and what events actually effect the market.

Below is the VIX chart..VIX is commonly used as an indicator to measure the degree of greed or fear within the marketplace. There is no exact line to define the neutral point however I have drawn a line in the sand at 25 as commentators tend to get nervous when the VIX is over 25.

Today the vix is considered low showing no much fear within the USA marketplace... as you would expect in a rising market that is indicating no major problems ATM. (Note :- little to no Middle East fear)

As the All Ords track similar to the S&P500 and the DOW atm the VIX would be relevent here as well.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Vix07042011.png

[ratkin]

Ratkin! After years of disparaging my charts, have you finally gone over to the dark side?

On your chart I can see that the green arrows mark an initial blue candle and the red arrows mark an initial red candle, but I am interested in what actually controls the colour of the candlesticks. For example Red does not equate to a down day or a lower Close or a downtrending candle, so what does it take to make a red candle?

Similarly, I am also curious about what controls the trend ribbon at the bottom of the chart. It is clearly independent from the candle colours, but has some strange anomalies. For example, in the significant downtrend beginning Nov 8, the ribbon remained entirely Bullish for all but one day - yet it went Bearish for a day right in the middle of the current long, strong, unbroken uptrend. It didn't turn Bearish when there was an obvious downtrend around Jan 4 when there were 9 consecutive red candles. What is the trend ribbon measuring?

Its just a simple program i put together for the expert advisor .the upward pointing Green arrows are the buy signals , that triggers the bars to go blue (programmed in highlights . Red arrows are the sell , and bar colour i again programmed into hightlights. So while the system is holding bars are blue , other wise red
Basically its prgrammed to generate a signal based on Parabolic , adx and the slope of various moving averages. ADX and the averages i included so that buy signals would not
be generated in sideways markets.
Also in a strong uptrend i have programmed it to ignore parabolic sell signals if the ADX is still trending uwards.

You are correct that the band at the bottom is not in sync , i was playing around with various parameters before i saved that chart, the ribbon on the chart was just a moving average, not the one i designed the program with.

Is the system any good? All i know is that it performs much better under backtesting than a simple parabolic buy signal, probably because it ignores conditions where the parabolic dosent do well . ie non trending markets? and dosent exit too soon in a decent uptrend


Have i gone to the darkside? (no more than you have gone to the lightside with your long term NZ divi stocks. )
Besides , i have to do something while i wait for Charlies to make me richer.

Finally became sick of incredible charts being covered in advertisements.

Must admit it is quite good fun playing around with the metastock code, although im
not very good at it yet, still have a few gliches to iron out


One simple thing im having a problem with is , is the system tester . How to you view the results of a test
of say 100 securities ? It brings them up as a list but i want to see the overall results for the entire
test , not just the results of individual securities

[trackers]

Thanks Hoop for your commentary on VIX, like you say its a pretty good filter of what's going on - Do you think it gives much advance notice, i.e is it a leading indicator? Or do you use other indicators primarily then VIX to confirm?

[drillfix]

Well the All Ordinaries up 19.7 to hit and toggling around the area of 5,025.20


Also thanks Hoop for your VIX chat and commentary the Fear Barometer is a very handy chart to have, and was trying to add it to my PRT chart group but for whatever reason cannot access that, I think (prorealtime) have some of their own type codes, as does IB wich makes it awkward arranging certain stocks, index's and charts at times.

Cheers again.

[Phaedrus]

I am unable to help you with your MetaStock System Tester problem, Ratkin. I have an older version that can't do that anyway.

[ratkin]

Im starting to think version 11 cant do it either

[drillfix]

Well, what a finish hey folks, All Ordinaries 5,036.50 and closes +31 in the green.

Also, silver a not long ago just cracked $40.00 and sitting just above. I wonder how much more legs silver will have? As in will that become the new toggle between support and resistance after a week so either before the next run up, or down even? Time will tell.

Will post some charts on Sunday when it comes, but in the meantime will need to get out and about for a little while.

Have a good weekend folks :)

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds48.gif

[tricha]

What a picture, looks like a double top forming , like a year ago :mad ;:, the US dollar in a tailspin, hence an illusion of strong commodity prices. Hmm ..................


http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds48.gif

[tricha]

What a picture, looks like a double top forming , like a year ago :mad ;:, the US dollar in a tailspin, hence an illusion of strong commodity prices. Hmm ..................

QE1 and then QE2, but can there be a QE3 ??????????, the cat is out of the bag ?????????????

[trackers]

But...but.. copper is cranking Tricha?

[tricha]

But...but.. copper is cranking Tricha?

In $US, copper is cranking, so are all commodities.

The $US is tanking, what does that mean trackers ????????

[Hoop]

Thanks Hoop for your commentary on VIX, like you say its a pretty good filter of what's going on - Do you think it gives much advance notice, i.e is it a leading indicator? Or do you use other indicators primarily then VIX to confirm?

Trackers i use VIX when something has happened and I want to know what the market thinks of it...Usually the sharemarket together with the VIX react quickly to a sudden major event...However this is my simplistic view I take and I assume many others have this similar view. Note that it is to do with the volatility side of the S&P500 so I use it in conjunction with other indexes or indicators (leading or not) which are closely correlating during that similar cyclic period (inverse or normal) ...things like bonds inflation rates treasury notes annualised P/E ratios, copper, etc and then of course there is FA and TA on top of all this....Its a hobby of mine to try and anticipate the near future or the much longer secular outlook and relate todays market behaviour to the market behaviour in those similar stages in the past ...its a lot of fun and it teaches you economic and market theory as well.

But the VIX's actual role is that it has a very good correlation with the S&P500 in predicting the volatility of the S&P500 30 days ahead as the composite of Options used to make up the VIX are futures.
Google VIX is the best plan.... or go here to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX) ..it has a more in depth explanation.

EDIT:
thinking further on the VIX...a knowledge of how Options work helps.... the relationship between volatility of the stock and its effect on its option price ..e.g the lower the volatility the lower the option price when time and price and yield rate remain the same. Therefore under the same conditions when the volatility (less fear) falls the vix falls.

[ratkin]

After yesterdays constructive critisism of my dodgy system programming skills i have been tweeking with my crayon system. The ribbon at the bottom should now match the colour bars.
I have also tweeked a few of the parameters and added an extra crayon (blue) which is meant to show when a trend change is imminent.

Blue after red is generally a positive sign , but blue after green is a warning sign .

I designed it for stocks and it could be too sensitive for an index

Feel free to rubbish it , its still a work in progress and suggestions welcome .

Also is the chart clear? 3324

[tricha]

In $US, copper is cranking, so are all commodities.

The $US is tanking, what does that mean trackers ????????

No replies, is everyone in this crazy world in denial ??

WELL, I will tell u, there is no good news. Be prepared. :eek2:, your charts will not help you.

11 April 2011 Last updated at 03:53 GMT

China sees first quarterly trade deficit in seven years

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/13013272

[ratkin]

You dont need to tell me .Im well aware that 99% of systems are rubbish and that the other 1% are only transitory opportunities that dont work in all conditions.

Im also aware that the real money isnt made by the stock traders.
I have never seen any activity that has so many hangers on

The authors , (failed traders)
The tipsheet merchants
The seminar givers
The software sellers
The data sellers
The system sellers
The software sellers
etc

They all have one thing in common , they talk about all the money that can be made
trading stocks , yet they all make their money telling others how to do it.

Since i subscribed to metastock , i have recieved countless offers from all these
people , Even Hull (average bookwriter) trying to put me on a semimnar for 2500 dollars.

I have no intention of becoming a full time trader , only bought metastock becaause
was sick of all the advertisments on incredible charts . Money is no issue to me so
thought i would try it out even though i might not use it to its full potential.
I enjoy messing around with the parameters , however only trading i will
do will be weekly charts , im too busy making money to be able to put enough
time in for short term trading


How to write a trading book

Chapter one
Talk about how most people lose money. Put in a few anecdotes about your family
history ( father a hopeless gambler , lost all his money on the markets , no discipline etc)

Chapter two
Give the basics that everyone knows already .

Chapter three
Talk about all the indicators , even though they all do the same thing

Chapter four
Discuss a trading system while pointing out that the reader should
make his own and not copy authors (no lawsuits to worry about)

Chapter five
Psychology , traders biggest enemy is himself etc etc

Chapter six 2% rule and no more than six percent of equity in one trade

All chapters to be liberally laced with personal anecdotes, references to big
houses and fast cars.

The books should be entitled
How to make big money - Sell books , give seminars and sell software

Im alreaady thinking that the best thing i could do with metastock is
throw a few systems together , set up a trading website , write a newsletter
and sell e-books and system software to the greedy and needy.

By the way , if any of you want these things for free goto

http://www.4shared.com/

Just type in the name of any author , for example Martin Pring and you will
find all his books in full for free download.
Martin Pring on price patterns is actually quite good.
There also lots of software , mainly useless metastock ad ons etc
All the trading books are on there for free download . You will
only need a couple as most are the same

Fvorite book i downloaded was the encyclopedia of trading strategies.
Found more correlation between trading lunar cycles for profit
Than from trading RSI signals. Maybe Ken Ring should write a book :eek2:

[ob1kinobi]

Hi Ratkin,

I take it you rather enjoy being provocative?

There is some half truths in your post, however I do agree that Hull can't write a decent book!

I'm sure you've come across the Market Wizard series. There are a bunch of successful traders out there, G.Soro's anyone?

Not all traders adhere to mechancial trading systems either. Trading to me ( at the moment at least ) is about a tool kit that helps with decision making.

A lot of successful traders actually consider humility to be an important part to there success as well.

Sounds like your reading the wrong books to me.

[Phaedrus]

Fvorite book i downloaded was the encyclopedia of trading strategies. Found more correlation between trading lunar cycles for profit than from trading RSI signals. Maybe Ken Ring should write a book.It wouldn't be worth writing - let alone reading!
Ratkin, here are some direct quotes from your fvorite book :-
"In general, the lunar models performed poorly. Most of the in-sample results were slightly positive when compared with chance (the random entry), but not profitable."

"The RSI overbought/oversold model was the worst of them all. It provided staggering losses that were (statistically) significantly worse than those that would have been achieved with a random entry." This is in stark contrast to the findings of other comprehensive studies that show RSI to be one of the best, most profitable indicators. The major defect with your fvorite book, Ratkin, is that it tests systems on Indices rather than stocks. There have been many Index based studies showing that TA "doesn't work", but when stocks are tested, the results are very different.


Im well aware that 99% of systems are rubbish and that the other 1% are only transitory opportunities that dont work in all conditions.But Ratkin, this bold, sweeping statement is totally at odds with the actual findings quoted in your fvorite book! Their final conclusion?
"It seems evident that there are a number of models that, although not ideal and in need of further development, do yield profitable trading that holds up in a verification sample and yields reasonable statistics." Finally :-

"A sufficiently extensive search (as conducted in this book) can discover enough (systems) that do work to put together a portfolio trading strategy capable of producing nothing less than stellar results."

[DTB]

[QUOTE=Phaedrus;342767]

There have been many Index based studies showing that TA "doesn't work", but when stocks are tested, the results are very different.

Please excuse me if this is a dumb question, but would it be useful to compare an index futures contract with it's relevant index and does it respond better to TA? My reasoning being that it is the equivalent of a single stock and the combined opinions of many on what direction the price will take. Whereas an index is a collection of many opinions of many stocks.

[ratkin]

[QUOTE=Phaedrus;342767]

There have been many Index based studies showing that TA "doesn't work", but when stocks are tested, the results are very different.

.

Im curious about this too , why would RSI work better on a stock than an index? Surely one chart is fairly like another, especially for a mechanical indicator that is just measuring the average gain and loss of the previous 14 days
Sorry if i sounded so anti in my previous post , i was just iritated by all the salesman who have been bombarding my inbox ever since i subscribed to metastock .

I generally find a healthy dose of scepticism is a good thing and has kept me in the horse trading game for the last ten years, while others have faired less well

[tricha]

What a picture, looks like a double top forming , like a year ago :mad ;:, the US dollar in a tailspin, hence an illusion of strong commodity prices. Hmm ..................

Hmm, interesting stuff, is this a double top formed :confused: or is a correction, I am picking no one knows, probably safer to be sitting on the fence.:cool:


http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds48.gif

[drillfix]

Hmm, interesting stuff, is this a double top formed :confused: or is a correction, I am picking no one knows, probably safer to be sitting on the fence.:cool:


http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds48.gif


Relax, Its now looking like what is commonly known as Dark Cloud cover which of course being a reversal signal will more than likely see us now on a leg down, but call it a correction if you wish.

XAO daily 10 mins remaining till EOD, mini view >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ehi6ufn37n8q87n6e83e.png

its just that the market needs to take a breather, I mean look at it, from the past near 3 weeks, mainly up, and back then all sorts of "other conversations where happening" regarding direction.


Perhaps its just a sign that we are still continuing in a range just not ready to commit to a Bull or Bear marriage.

Lots of sell off today going on, have scaled down to only a couple of positions.

Add/Edit

XAO closes down -72.3 @ 4,992.60
Just when I thought the XAO was wanting to park it big ASX Butt down on 5,000 it splits the chair and cracks through.

[tricha]

Relax, Its now looking like what is commonly known as Dark Cloud cover which of course being a reversal signal will more than likely see us now on a leg down, but call it a correction if you wish.

XAO daily 10 mins remaining till EOD, mini view >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ehi6ufn37n8q87n6e83e.png

its just that the market needs to take a breather, I mean look at it, from the past near 3 weeks, mainly up, and back then all sorts of "other conversations where happening" regarding direction.


Perhaps its just a sign that we are still continuing in a range just not ready to commit to a Bull or Bear marriage.

Lots of sell off today going on, have scaled down to only a couple of positions.

Add/Edit

XAO closes down -72.3 @ 4,992.60
Just when I thought the XAO was wanting to park it big ASX Butt down on 5,000 it splits the chair and cracks through.

RRR, exactly how I perceived it Drillfix, there is no conclusive answer. Thanks drillfix.:t_up:

On the other hand, The mighty one does not have an answer, he awaits the full moon.

Or history to show it's hand.:t_up:

[ratkin]

Looks like its time to batten down the hatches

3332

[drillfix]

Here is a Mondays XAO daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/tovh6fdpcplnxacpaon4.png


I had written a brief speel to go along with this post but ended up accidentally clicking a back button my 5 button mouse and then losing my wording/post.

Anyway as marked in the chart, trade cautiously folks, beware that some knifes may be sharper than others.

Cheers for now~!

[bermuda]

Definitely a interesting time for the All Ords, Im guessing the MSI absorbed Tuesdays movement maybe moving into grey or something?
Ratkin I really like your style of charting its very simple which makes it flexible and practical I would suggest to keep it that way, especially for a index, a index in theory should be easier to monitor than individual stocks via TA that makes it even more interesting when studies suggest its not. It goes to demonstrate that volatility variances is one of the main components that makes TA accurate in stocks and that a index is so much more efficient in determining fair value than a individual stock, this makes sense as a index is formed and monitored by a larger group of market participation and therefore under heavier scrutiny via its parts.

AA

At the end of the day always remember that the BRIC countries are forging ahead at plus 6% per annum ( China 9.6 ) and the USA is still at 2.5% ( probably a bit contrived ).

The allORDS will follow.

[ratkin]

Definitely a interesting time for the All Ords, Im guessing the MSI absorbed Tuesdays movement maybe moving into grey or something?
Ratkin I really like your style of charting its very simple which makes it flexible and practical I would suggest to keep it that way, especially for a index, a index in theory should be easier to monitor than individual stocks via TA that makes it even more interesting when studies suggest its not. It goes to demonstrate that volatility variances is one of the main components that makes TA accurate in stocks and that a index is so much more efficient in determining fair value than a individual stock, this makes sense as a index is formed and monitored by a larger group of market participation and therefore under heavier scrutiny via its parts.

AA

Thanks , that makes a lot of sense.
Im making a conscious effort to keep things simple , and am placing far more weight to support
and resistance , plus volume, than in fancy indicators.
Im only looking at charts that have very well defined areas of support and resistance , and
using them for very low risk trades. Ie buying near support levels , and selling as soon as it goes wrong.

Am finding the explorations a very time intensive buisness though , metastock seems very
slow when compared with incredible charts , and im yet to perfect a very good exploration
that gives a decent list of stocks at support levels

[drillfix]

and im yet to perfect a very good exploration
that gives a decent list of stocks at support levels


If that is the case Ratkin, then why not just sign up for a free account with ProRealtime?

Its free and has all your easily viewed automated both support and resistance levels.

Tell you this right now, its the best of best free tools, IMO.



Now, moving along, here is today's (Wed) XAO

XAO daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/897zhojd5wpfb8ooyrpx.png

Drawn on the chart are key areas of play (imo) and places to note what is actually happening in indicator land.

On price markers on the daily is potential ranges which we could find ourselves in (well, we actually are in) but currently we are sitting at the bottom of the upper range atm..

The weekly I draw a target of approximation of where the weekly needs to be before the other lower and upper indicators get set for rotation.

One should not guess but heck, why not add some attempted creativity to the process of pretending to have a crystal ball hey :P

Have a nice evening and a wonderful day tomorrow folks.

Cheers~!

[drillfix]

Evening/Morning Folks, hope you all had a nice weekend.

Here are some charts to compare and review to beginning of the trading week or create summary etc etc.


XAO daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ji2dbktep7qnfb391rw_XAO.png

From the bottom Daily.
MACD Signal lines about to crossover along with MACD Histogram edging to the zero line prepping to potentially turn negative.
Williams %R is heading downwards, but must take a breather sometime.
Seems our XAO is set to test a lower rising oblique support line which is also close by the 30ema. Following that would be intermediate support near the 90ema.
RSI remains above 50 which is still positive but further falls below this would be show obvious signs of weakness.
OBV appears to be moving downward close to potentially break a near support line, and a further fall would be negative.

The weekly shows a lower also confirms W%R ready for a move down, MACD near flat lining, RSI a lower high but still above 50 and OBV completed a higher high but heading lower.

Price on the weekly has touched resistance previously and is now testing lower EMA's and no doubt will appear to be trading sideways.

==============


On other fronts we have a mix of charts from OS markets for reference with our XAO, US, EU, Japan, Pr-metals and Copper and Oil.

============

S&P500 daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/1n256nn7ztk2ib4js_SP500.png


DAX daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/6dle0iev5sexvno07rbh_DAX.png


Dow Jones daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/rcdiz1q38j4ene0fjp3_DowJones.png


Oz Shares US index daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/j2sxfwxwd07ifywr222c_AusIndexUS.png


Japan Nikkei daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/bjjmcxjfqutsfh3mypw_Nikkei.png


UK FTSE daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/957uve886vgtndgcan_FTSE.png

(check out the FTSE on the 1st of April, this is not joke, it appears to be some phenomenon support zone.)
( Well either that or somebody trying to open the stargate or something :p )

==============

Gold daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/f2f0qpdn2jsf72ts4sni_Gold.png


Silver daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/7uafru5fu3atyclswm3.png


Copper Futures daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/jlpwcvvcb2yi76omtxk.png

==============

It appears Gold and Silver are on steroids with with both Gold making a higher high as well as Silver making a higher high.

As I write this gold is @ US $1,486.4 0 and Silver has broken 43 US sitting at $43.05
Obvious targets for gold would be $1500US and Silver $50US
Gold is showing potential support at $1,475US on the daily and $1,420US on the weekly chart
Silver is showing potential support at $40.94US on the daily YET only $30.80 on the weekly chart yet $35.00US would be 1st back test target imo.

Copper has fallen in recent days in line with markets and support can be seen at 4.20 on the daily as well as 4.20 on the weekly. Any sign of a bounce off those levels, would, could, and more probably should be very positive for our markets so once Copper gets itself sorted out a bit, we can more than likely see global markets take a couple of steps forward.

Guess there are many things still going on in the world and alot of it still around Oil and Energy etc.

Here are a couple of more charts, one with Light Crude, and the other with the AUD-USD.

==============


Crude daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/m2fjy2pvot4u7gs2nf9z_CrudeFutures.png


AUD USD daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/jgkh557jbvsifl89kvge_OzDollar.png

==============

Seems like crude tested $110 US again and Williams %R shows a move upwards still in place. OBV and RSI are still strong yet the MACD histogram is negative which means not much atm, as the weekly shows a turnaround is likely with williams and declining OBV divergence.

The Aussie Dollar seems it has found a base between $1.04 to $1.05 It will be interesting to see what happens on a break out of that, but in the meantime it appears the MACD histogram is showing signs of divergence although RSI still appears to be strong.

Well,
Guess its best to just take each day as it comes yet guess we should keep an eye on copper as that to me could be the signal around the support area it will soon test. So in the meantime, will leave you all to draw your own conclusions to this.

Cheers for now folks and see you all in a few hours or so :)

[drillfix]

Hey folks,

Another thought appeared our good news friend HighlandLad on HD whom states:

Because of our five-day Easter/Anzac break. US stock exchanges only close for Good Friday, meaning there will be two full sessions overseas before trading resumes here next Wednesday. That may see local traders err on the side of caution, reducing their exposure on Wednesday and Thursday.



So take caution towards your position near the later in the week.


Some times its tricky enough to actually remember that we are in April and that a Quarter of the year has flown past already. Sheezus, perhaps we should invest in time machines, anybody know any good companies :P

[asc4]

Here you go Drilly, don't know if he's launching an IPO soon though!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2S7J_JBWds

[drillfix]

Here you go Drilly, don't know if he's launching an IPO soon though!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2S7J_JBWds


Haaaa, nice one asc4, only in America hey so no doubt they will get many rights taken up on that idea over there lol.

[tricha]

Hmm, interesting stuff, is this a double top formed :confused: or is a correction, I am picking no one knows, probably safer to be sitting on the fence.:cool:


http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds48.gif

WELL u T\A guys, this looks like a repeat from a bear ago (last year), I've backed the truck out, this is going into reverse, a double top.
To back it up, the yanks are on their last legs.:(

[STRAT]

WELL u T\A guys, this looks like a repeat from a bear ago (last year), I've backed the truck out, this is going into reverse, a double top.
To back it up, the yanks are on their last legs.:(Hi Tricha.
A bit early for that call but time will tell eh?
I see Standard and Poors have downgraded the US credit rating to "dont lend money to this bloke"
Gold stocks might be OK

Perhaps worthy of note, both the DOW and S&P bottomed early in the day and closed higher than they opened.

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds418.gif

[drillfix]

Hi Tricha.
A bit early for that call but time will tell eh?


Just another leg down here Tricha, so trade what you see accordingly, imo.

Hey, check this link out, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqO64-ipqAM&feature=share

Was sent to me from someone by a friend of a friend so to speak, so who knows what to believe, is this the beginning of the end or just another Leg down? Who knows, but the chart shows a Recent Higher HIGH so if we are to see another Leg Up, then what we need to see also is a Higher LOW to correlate to such possibility, as a Lower Low will make me agree with the Link I just sent you.

Ahh well, such as life.

[drillfix]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds418.gif


Cheers Mr. P

I wonder how far down the rabbit hole we must go before we can get some potential bounce? No doubt, there is no point in guessing as it just is what it is, however one could speculate at or on one of the Moving Averages somewhere be it 90, 120, 180 or 200. I am hoping we do not breach the 200.

Like always, time will tell.

[drillfix]

By the looks of things today, it appears to me the XAO is trying to park its asx butt down ton the intermediate resistance line at 4,866.20 which conveniently is also where the 90ema is also located.

Failing that, then Hello 4,780 where the 200 ema is located.

Or better yet, how about a nice strong bounce by view off the weekly at 4,695 (or 4,700 will do) where both the 90ema and 200ema currently reside.

Maybe not this week but eventual no doubt and the size of whatever bounce we get will obviously be gauged upon global sentiment.

[JackSprat]

That is confusing. It's strong but it's falling. I suppose it means it'll stay strong until it falls past the negative??

[shasta]

That is confusing. It's strong but it's falling. I suppose it means it'll stay strong until it falls past the negative??

I take that as losing strength, but not enough to reverse the current trend?

[STRAT]

That is confusing. It's strong but it's falling. I suppose it means it'll stay strong until it falls past the negative??Hi Jack.
Look at it like this. You are driving down the motorway at 160kph. Theres a Cop behind you with his lights flashing. You ease up to 150kph.
Are you still speeding?
Should the cop assume/expect you are going to stop and back up?

[soulman]

Hi Jack.
Look at it like this. You are driving down the motorway at 160kph. Theres a Cop behind you with his lights flashing. You ease up to 150kph.
Are you still speeding?
Should the cop assume/expect you are going to stop and back up?

Is that you on the weekend Strat?

[STRAT]

Is that you on the weekend Strat?No mate. No easing up.

[drillfix]

By the looks of things today, it appears to me the XAO is trying to park its asx butt down ton the intermediate resistance line at 4,866.20 which conveniently is also where the 90ema is also located.

Failing that, then Hello 4,780 where the 200 ema is located.



Why hello Dolly, as shown on the chart the XAO decides to park its butt right on the 90ema / intermediate support line.


XAO daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/108339gy9agjeykgw1e.png


I said previously in a past post that I am not gonna post every day with blow by blow descriptions , but you sure can see the technicals in play here.

It looks like we still have a bit to fall yet, which means it just is what it is in the meantime, but providing we get some bounce eventually and do not make a lower low, yet concerning all the same as the moves up and down are also becoming bigger/larger which are also shown on the daily chart.

As mentioned above if we get no bounce here at intermediate support then a test of 5,787.4 seems likely or perhaps a test of the lower bollinger band, which while the MACD does is slow negative histogram and crossing signal the Williams races there and shows oversold but which can stay this way until whenever.

Here's to an eventual bounce folks.

Well thats me for now, cya all tomorrow


ps:
Jack, you should jump back quiet a few pages and read some of the many times Phaedrus has explained to others about his Market Strength Indicator.
Once you read enough posts you will eventually understand not only what function it is providing but a more insight into how and why it doing what it is doing.

[percy]

To Drillfix,
I notice a fair bit of movement in the market this week.Not only has there been trades of TEO but I also note 10,000 HIT were crossed.Do you think these trades have influenced market activity or are the result of market activity.? Very unusual to have both stosks trade in the same week!!! lol.

[drillfix]

Hi Percy,

Ahh, I thought I missed some detail in your post but I fully understand now..lol I wish you well with those stocks Percy, dont go selling them all at once now hey :P


Well, back to the XAO it appears we have a bounce thanks to a nice lead from OS markets.

[STRAT]

To Drillfix,
I notice a fair bit of movement in the market this week.Not only has there been trades of TEO but I also note 10,000 HIT were crossed.Do you think these trades have influenced market activity or are the result of market activity.? Very unusual to have both stosks trade in the same week!!! lol.Looks like a keen buyer was pushing up the price to me :lol:

[JackSprat]

Thxs Drillfix, I will. :D

[drillfix]

Just a quick post tonight on XAO folks.

Here is a Zoomed verison of XAO daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ppxzfi1rnxg08e1aq3r.png

Well, what can we say except .... Bounce~!

On the zoomed chart just below the light blue 13ema you can see the Bollinger Band mid line Dot in between the 13ema and the candle. Some times we touch this and bounce back down at these mid points, although Williams %R has broken upwards and RSI and OBV have also turned slightly upwards.

Plenty of positive futures showing up for OS markets on both Bloomberg and LiveIndicies.com , although our XAO just fell short of becoming an Engulfing Candle over yesterdays red fall and also touching the 13ema as mentioned above.

As many of you know, tomorrow is the last day before a very Long Weekend a head which then our ASX takes a breather or close for Friday, Monday and Tuesday, next week for the Easter and ANZAC day.

What about tomorrow or today coming ahead?

Not really sure, but with a strong lead we potentially will see another run upwards though not sure how strong it will be. Same with any weakness as we could also see the trend bucked with many positions being closed over such a long holiday trading period, which leads us back to uncertainty.

Another thing to consider is Gold now easily cracked through $1500 US as I type, and no doubt will become a future support/resistance line but more probable to be support. Silver also cranking along about to test $45 US which I thought would be closer to $50 by now and the psychological target which by it would perhaps take a short breather, but who knows, its just up, again, as usual, again.

Aussie Dollar also powering along as well and seems set to eventually test $1.06 and once it breaks through the $1.0567 intermediate resistance line.

Well, thats enough XAO babble for tonight. Will post a better summary over the holiday period.

Have a great day tomorrow everyone, cheers~!

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds420.gif


That is confusing. It's strong but it's falling. Strong markets can (and do) fall, Jack! While this is unfortunate, it shouldn't be confusing. Here is a quick overview of my MSI system that you might find useful.

The Market Strength Indicator takes signals from multiple technical indicators, combines them, and presents the composite as a colour-coded overlay on the AllOrds plot. Its scale runs from +1 to -1, with zero being neutral, and it is divided up into 6 zones as follows :-

STRONGLY POSITIVE
MODERATELY POSITIVE
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
MODERATELY NEGATIVE
STRONGLY NEGATIVE

If the market is strong, we want to be fully invested. If it is weak, we want to be reducing our exposure. If the market is in the Grey area around zero, it doesn't matter too much either way. We are most interested in the "transition" zones, where the market is becoming Strong (light green) or becoming Weak (Yellow) These mark good points for getting into or out of the market.

The Trend ribbon along the bottom of the chart enables you to compare the AllOrds with the MSI assessment of the US market. Generally the 2 markets move in lockstep, but occasionally they do diverge and you can see that the recent (mid March) AllOrds weakness was not confirmed by equivalent SP500 weakness so this was of less significance than usual.

[drillfix]

The Trend ribbon along the bottom of the chart enables you to compare the AllOrds with the MSI assessment of the US market.



What happened to the little Mr. Smiley Face at the bottom right had corner that once upon a time used to be there :P

[drillfix]

Evening/Morning Folks.

I hope many of you have had a pleasant Easter break and some quality time with family, friends and loved ones.

It appears we are in for a short trading week. Not too sure how gung ho things will be but my Tip Toe detector is set on full so I guess it will be a case of the usual heads up and proceed with caution as we move towards the direction of the upper bollinger band and the upper resistance level of 5,025

Here are some charts for thoughts and summary/revision.

XAO daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/hd0nydyxeb3ydlfrvqne.png

As mentioned XAO seems set to continue the direction and test of previous resistance at 5,025, a further test of the previous high of 5,065.5 would no doubt also be welcomed but lets take one point at a time. A concern would be a failure at the 5,025 level which would mean a test to the lower rising oblique support line which also can be shown on the chart.

Daily Williams %R is positive rising upwards, MACD histogram is diverging towards the mid line, RSI is still strong at 57, OBV is also strong.



S&P500 daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/vzk2ne843f93906mtauc.png

Pretty easy to see here, we could be in for a reversal on the S&P500 with a failure to make another. Who knows what tonight will bring the S&P500, the last time it did this it had 5 or 6 days of sitting at the same level before a short decline. Maybe the same again? Time will tell.


Gold daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/2iubhpyst3ojn7kr04d5.png

Looks like Gold rode the upper bolly band and maintained a strong RSI through out the past few months. Seems W%R wants to take a breather along with price perhaps which would mean the 1st stop would be a test of the intermediate support level @ $1,475 USD or at least back to touch upon the 13ema which gold has profoundly rode all the way upward since early Feb 2011


Silver daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/8995w7dt1nvxnhersp.png

Wow, what can you say about silver hey, except Hi Ho Hi Ho. It too since early Feb 2011 has rode the 13ema all the way to just short of $50 bucks and hit a high of $49.8228 which is a strong solid gain from the break of 30 USD.

All good runs must take a breather at some stage though and both Daily and weekly Williams %R are showing this showing a short or breather will take place.
RSI is strong and just need to look for some divergence in MACD to also come into play for some confirmation of such breather.

If it comes about then the 13ema will be the 1st touch level at around $42.90 and then the 2nd level at support drawn at $41.00USD which also happens to be the mid Bollinger Band line as well as a likely place where the oblique support line touches upon as well. So common sense states this will be a target for a breather eventually. (IMO)

AUD USD daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/p9miszweo0lruacmrcnj.png

The Aussie Dollar has been sitting just above $1.07 for a couple days now. I think we will see some toggling going on here, but like Silver, I think this will surely need to also take a breather as it has been and stayed overbought for since the 22nd of March 2011 so whoever went long on the AUD USD on the 18th of Mar 2011 would have blitzed it nicely with a combination of indicators triggering off signals not long after that appox around the 23-24 with EMA crossovers and MACD, Williams, RSI etc etc.

Intermediate support sits below at approximately $1.056 which is just above the middle Bollinger Band


Other Notes.

Time for a breather? Maybe, but better yet, how about we just take one day at a time and see where we are at once we get there. That seems to work well for most but as we move upward to the resistance or previous high, I cannot help feeling the need to become cautious.

There were a few more other charts I wanted to also post, but its now getting a little late for that so maybe next time.

Well, see ya all tomorrow and have a great day for the day that awaits us all :)

[STRAT]

Hey Drilly.
That Silver Chart sure is a pretty picture right now, eh? JB will be pleased.

[drillfix]

Silver daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/8995w7dt1nvxnhersp.png

Wow, what can you say about silver hey, except Hi Ho Hi Ho. It too since early Feb 2011 has rode the 13ema all the way to just short of $50 bucks and hit a high of $49.8228 which is a strong solid gain from the break of 30 USD.

All good runs must take a breather at some stage though and both Daily and weekly Williams %R are showing this showing a short or breather will take place.
RSI is strong and just need to look for some divergence in MACD to also come into play for some confirmation of such breather.

If it comes about then the 13ema will be the 1st touch level at around $42.90 and then the 2nd level at support drawn at $41.00USD which also happens to be the mid Bollinger Band line as well as a likely place where the oblique support line touches upon as well. So common sense states this will be a target for a breather eventually. (IMO)


Hey Drilly.
That Silver Chart sure is a pretty picture right now, eh? JB will be pleased.


Yes Strat, JB no doubt will be wrapped with both gold and silver.

Although, look at the weekly on silver, perhaps a case of too hard, too fast? Perhaps~!

Will this continue as it is for the next day, weeks, months? Maybe a day or week but certainly not months as Silver will need to catch its breath otherwise the great silver run of 2011 will then be known as the great silver crash of 2011, if it is not careful, or should I say, should the traders and speculators not be careful.

I believe the psychological $50.00 dollar mark will be tested again though. Which if it does and then falls, this could also turn out to be double tops and cause a partial Technical Sell Off in which case we then have lower highs and the lower lows which soon after follow (That is, should a double tops unfold).


Each to their own story though, so I guess play it for what it is, while it is, and when it is or how it is. (not sure if that make sense...lol

[evilroyrule]

drilly, looks like between us we picked a good day to trade gni and ndl! hope you in for a few.

[STRAT]

Yes Strat, JB no doubt will be wrapped with both gold and silver.

Although, look at the weekly on silver, perhaps a case of too hard, too fast? Perhaps~!

No such thing as "too hard, Too fast" I reckon Drilly as long as one gets off at the right time.


Hey Roy , you buying or selling NDL today:confused: No trades yet.

[drillfix]

drilly, looks like between us we picked a good day to trade gni and ndl! hope you in for a few.

ER, I dont know why you think I am trading these, as I don't hold either stock. I did hold NDL a while ago, but bailed from it, and its been ages since holding any GNI so it appears you are on your own on those dear bud.

Finger on the pulse there and dont forget to take some profits.



No such thing as "too hard, Too fast" I reckon Drilly as long as one gets off at the right time.

Hey Roy , you buying or selling NDL today:confused: No trades yet.


LOL Strat, yes I guess so true providing you get off or complete the mission successfully.

Regardless of what anybody reckons, no doubt it will be the chart that tells the story in the end.

[drillfix]

Wow and the AUD run continues.

AUD / USD 1.083


Why is the XAO tanking and the AUD USD climbing? I thought there was some coupling related factor but now there is divergence happening.

Anybody?

[COLIN]

Wow and the AUD run continues.

AUD / USD 1.083


Why is the XAO tanking and the AUD USD climbing? I thought there was some coupling related factor but now there is divergence happening.

Anybody?

Weaker metals (apart from copper), CPI climbing, strong Aussie dollar affecting export returns, uncertainty about Bernanke's digestive system, Chinese tightening, Prince William's pre-wedding doubts re Harry's sobriety, the Nauruan economy ............... take your pick!

Seriously, though, it seems a bit overdone to me.

Nikkei up.

[drillfix]

drilly, looks like between us we picked a good day to trade gni and ndl! hope you in for a few.


Weaker metals (apart from copper), CPI climbing, strong Aussie dollar affecting export returns, uncertainty about Bernanke's digestive system, Chinese tightening, Prince William's pre-wedding doubts re Harry's sobriety, the Nauruan economy ............... take your pick!

Seriously, though, it seems a bit overdone to me.

Nikkei up.


Thanks Colin, and very true, lots to pick from.

Its nice to get some spectrum to aid to ones mental health, :P

[COLIN]

A generally disappointing performance on the ASX again today, which seems out of synch with the major world markets. The mining stocks seem under pressure across the board, over recent days, with good opportunities more difficult to find, and I am getting the feeling that the exhilarating times which we have enjoyed with our cavorting in this field, over the last year or two, may be fast coming to an end. No doubt there will be continuing opportunities here and there, but it seems time to begin romping in other fields and I am now starting to switch my focus to the US market, commencing with the tech sector where I am about to make my first purchase - HON:NYSE. I might even pluck up courage to have a bite at Apple, but the price looks mighty scary. No doubt there are much greater opportunities with the smaller fry, among the techs, but one needs time, youth and energy to do the necessary research.

Its also a good opportunity to take advantage of the huge leap in the AUD/US rate, where I believe we could well see a bit of a pullback shortly, although in the medium to longer term it seems that the US dollar will continue to come under increasing pressure.

[drillfix]

Hi Colin,

I agree as I am sure many may also agree. Things are becoming slightly out of wack. Need to learn another discipline or change, adopt to either new methods or start to cut down on risk perhaps.

I traded some US stocks for a while as also trading futures. I found that I became rather exhausted from sleep patterns though and this started to effect me big time, although as you say, there is opportunity over there, but you may need to adopt some new methods depending on what your trading style is.

Will you be looking at shorting HON? Here is a chart and it seems to be coming up to hit resistance:

HON NYSE daily & weekly >>>http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/58q26lng4posy7x39p5l_HONNYSE.png

Apple, I remember wondering to buy at 250 ....lol

APPL NASD daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/e2zwl5m70xmp0evfqw4m_APPNASDAQ.png

The thing about Apple is that there was some media just recently about how the iPhone broadcasts users locations to servers everywhere without the consent or permission of the owners. So this may be a nice short coming up along with the lower RSI and OBV failing to make previous highs. Good luck with this one but to me, fortune favours the short side at least to the 13ema perhaps the centre bolly band.

===============

With regards to our All Ords, well lets take a look at some charts to see whats happening and add a little babble to each one for something to do.


XAO daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/10hy89wnsnkqonxtonj4_All-Ords.png

Seems like the XAO decided to park its all ords butt right on the 13ema just below the centre bollinger band. We could easily get a bounce from here but one must wonder why there was a retreat after a nice lead from US markets yesterday. Currently it appears indecisive to what it wants to do, I think that if we take a look at the Monthly chart which is not shown on the chart above we can see the higher high, so there still remains some upward movement medium to long term. Short term on the weekly we could expect a bounce off the 13ema (IMO).


AUD USD daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/wk13qscb7rm2u4qtv32_Aus-Dollar.png

No introduction needed here for the Aussie Dollar. It seems to want to hit psychological $1.10 which some analysts had previously called last year some time that it would do, so perhaps monkey see, monkey do whilst the US dollar is in the gutter? Who knows, but no doubt we will get a breather eventually and test the intermediate support level at $1.056x at some stage which by looking at the Williams % R we can see it has been overbought and can stay overbought for quite some time, or at least whilst RSI is still strong as a bull.

Perhaps a good time to buy some parts or material or import something from the US? Of course this depends on what line or sideline of business you are in.


Copper Futures daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/34o2wd004jp4ses96yk_Copper-Futures.png

Shown on the copper futures contracts chart above that copper is just touched support. Hopefully we can see it bounce off this level and get its copper butt back up above the 90ema and then move upwards to the upper bollinger band. Talk of breaking upper resistance should or will be left for another day in the short term, though perhaps next week yet the market is extremely dynamic and anything could happen.



Gold daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/shttut3gzhi4eapopprj_Gold.png

What can we cay about gold except that eventually 1500US will become eventually a new support level the longer it stays up above that.

At some stage no doubt, we will see maybe not a reversal but a need to test the lower EMA's or even the centre of the Bollinger Bands. This would at least be healthy for the market, the chart and participants who also wish to both exit and enter on position changing.. RSI is strong and I would expect that once we hit 80+ on the RSI then we may get our breather just after that some time.

The weekly is also powering away reaching for the stars it seems, but same will apply for the weekly as does the daily chart above.



Silver daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/c2pn7gihzga9oqt1loal_Silver.png

Tally Ho again silver. Golds naught little brother whom seems to be growing up in a hurry it seems.

I said to skol earlier today that a test of 50 US seems likely again and should it fail to hold or maintain that then we would technically get a breather, but by looking at the chart you would not think it would you. The weekly to me seems more scary than the daily because it resembles the space shuttle taking off, yet with an RSI of 86+ there will be a time where silver just needs to catch its breath, for the sake the such a hard run it has had over the 17th of March 2011.

Each to their own though, lots of speculation going around the internet for Hype, Confidence, Doom and Fear or Paranoia. Take your pick, I just hope that any of you dont get completely absorbed by it all and that your exposure is balanced to both win or take a hit if need be.


Well, thats enough Babble from me folks, I usually enjoy a Sunday babble post but I could be busy with a few other things going on.

Thanks for putting up with me :P

Cheers~!

[JackSprat]

Marvellous Drillfix, don't go do anything else :) I for one enjoy all your posts.

[asc4]

Great summaries Drilly. That strong aud is stifling some gains of late, wud like a pullback. But can't help wondering if u sleep! Sleep in 2moro aye? :)

[drillfix]

Marvellous Drillfix, don't go do anything else :) I for one enjoy all your posts.


Great summaries Drilly. That strong aud is stifling some gains of late, wud like a pullback. But can't help wondering if u sleep! Sleep in 2moro aye? :)



Thanks for the kind words people.

Yep I do sometimes sleep. Usually a nap half hour after markets and then up to 3am as sometimes I watch futures and OS stuff (either that or even a movie or something too LOL).

The AUD at some stage will be a good short once it hits $1.10 one would suspect and intermediate support at $1.056x, although you would want to be out before that if you were shorting or were prepared to go short.

Seems this high dollar could potentially muck up a few other things so as much as I enjoy buying electronic computerised gizmo's as much as the next guy there is a price we must pay or that companies who do business do pay for such fluctuation.

Lets hope our markets can hold it together so at least we can get a test of XAO 5,025 approx or back into the range oven we go ~!

Cheers again :)

[COLIN]

What a depressing week on the ASX! Its no wonder that some of us are looking for sustenance elsewhere, and quietly switching to the US of A. Any more of this week's nonsense and I'll be ruthlessly dumping ALL my Aussie holdings - no exceptions this time.

Who do we turn to, when all else fails? Phaedrus, of course. Please Sir, we need an update of your thoughts - in glorious technicolour, of course. Many thanks, in anticipation.

Drillfix: No, I don't propose shorting HON. In a generally strengthening US equities market I wouldn't have the requisite nerves of steel to short anything, nor do I have the stamina to forego too much sleep (stayed up too late last night, and am paying the price today!). I intend to be an "active investor" in the US, rather than a trader. As regards HON, I believe we can look for a new resistance point.

Regards.

[evilroyrule]

What a depressing week on the ASX! Its no wonder that some of us are looking for sustenance elsewhere, and quietly switching to the US of A. Any more of this week's nonsense and I'll be ruthlessly dumping ALL my Aussie holdings - no exceptions this time.

Who do we turn to, when all else fails? Phaedrus, of course. Please Sir, we need an update of your thoughts - in glorious technicolour, of course. Many thanks, in anticipation.

Drillfix: No, I don't propose shorting HON. In a generally strengthening US equities market I wouldn't have the requisite nerves of steel to short anything, nor do I have the stamina to forego too much sleep (stayed up too late last night, and am paying the price today!). I intend to be an "active investor" in the US, rather than a trader. As regards HON, I believe we can look for a new resistance point.

Regards.

im with you. made an offer on a farm today. fingers crossed.

[STRAT]

What a depressing week on the ASX! Its no wonder that some of us are looking for sustenance elsewhere, and quietly switching to the US of A. Any more of this week's nonsense and I'll be ruthlessly dumping ALL my Aussie holdings - no exceptions this time.



Regards.Hi Colin. Switch to the USof A you reckon?
Dont forget to convert those US gains in US dollars back to Aussie dollars before the final assessment :D

[percy]

Well I went to Cavotec agm yesterday,they manufacture equipment for the mining industry,equipment for airports and shipping.Their view was huge increase of populations who want resources,who need to ship those resources to markets .The growth areas of China,India and Brazil,will drive demand.They are already seeing
increase demand for their products.The country that will supply the resources is Australia,not USA,I therfore see more safety in being invested in Aussie than the US.
ER.Good luck with the farm.

[tricha]

What a depressing week on the ASX! Its no wonder that some of us are looking for sustenance elsewhere, and quietly switching to the US of A. Any more of this week's nonsense and I'll be ruthlessly dumping ALL my Aussie holdings - no exceptions this time.

Who do we turn to, when all else fails? Phaedrus, of course. Please Sir, we need an update of your thoughts - in glorious technicolour, of course. Many thanks, in anticipation.

Drillfix: No, I don't propose shorting HON. In a generally strengthening US equities market I wouldn't have the requisite nerves of steel to short anything, nor do I have the stamina to forego too much sleep (stayed up too late last night, and am paying the price today!). I intend to be an "active investor" in the US, rather than a trader. As regards HON, I believe we can look for a new resistance point.

Regards.

It would pay to have a look at the sky Colin, there is your answer.

To buy US$ one would have to risk going broke, holding nothing but paper one would think.

P.S go away in May is a fallacy, but I saw on SKY business that the average return for the next six months is only 1.6%, for the US market.
However I would not be surprised the Ozzies are selling early to jump the cue for this years tax returns??
Or could it also be the Americian investment companies selling to jump back in $US dollars, the like of Bank Of America, BPT is getting hammered and they hold heaps. We will see shortly.

[COLIN]

Hi Colin. Switch to the USof A you reckon?
Dont forget to convert those US gains in US dollars back to Aussie dollars before the final assessment :D

Will probably convert them to Remninbi, Strat! LOL. (Aud already showing signs of its recent surge coming off the boil.)

BTW, what proportion of your Aussie mining stocks have recorded gains this week? Just curious.

Cheers.

[COLIN]

Well I went to Cavotec agm yesterday,they manufacture equipment for the mining industry,equipment for airports and shipping.Their view was huge increase of populations who want resources,who need to ship those resources to markets .The growth areas of China,India and Brazil,will drive demand.They are already seeing
increase demand for their products.The country that will supply the resources is Australia,not USA,I therfore see more safety in being invested in Aussie than the US.
ER.Good luck with the farm.

Percy, I think the bull market in Aussie miners has already built in a lot of those anticipated gains. Share markets reflect where the relative national economies are expected to be in a year or so's time, not the present realities.

[STRAT]

Will probably convert them to Remninbi, Strat! LOL. (Aud already showing signs of its recent surge coming off the boil.)

BTW, what proportion of your Aussie mining stocks have recorded gains this week? Just curious.

Cheers.RMB is still semi attatched to the USD so I wouldnt do that.

Re mining stocks.
Two,no real movement and one up quite a bit, that one you told me to sell :D

[tricha]

Yep, the answer is in the clouds.

Soaring dollar sends market lower mid-morning

The West Australian April 29, 2011, 10:51 am
http://l.yimg.com/fv/xp/wan/20110414/12/2281583770.jpg (http://l.yimg.com/fv/xp/wan/20110414/12/2281583770.jpg) The West Australian ©




Australian shares are lower mid-morning, with the soaring high local dollar generating concerns about the effect on local companies.
At 10.22am, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was down 47.6 points, or 0.98 per cent, at 4825.4, while the broader All Ordinaries index slipped 51.4 points to 4900.9.
On the ASX 24, the June share price index futures contract was 46 points lower at 4827, with 22,000 contracts traded.
It is the third day in a row that Australian stocks have struggled and ignored strong offshore leads, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average nearly reaching three-year highs this week.
At 10.07am, the local unit was at 109.09 US cents, down from 109.12 cents yesterday.
Earlier, the unit reached 109.47 US cents on Thursday, its highest level since the currency floated in December 1983.
Burrell Stockbroking director Richard Herring said that while the local currency had been rising for some time, it was only generating worries now about dents to export and other overseas earnings of local companies.
"People can sustain things for a while, then they maybe they look up and think that $1.10 is getting unattractive," he told AAP.
"It doesn't really help our economy a great deal either, not at this level.
"I think offshore sellers have moved in. It's certainly making it difficult for Australian manufacturers and the like and for mining companies to take advantage of strong spot prices when our dollar's trading at $1.09-$1.10."
He said he hoped the current levels prove to be unsustainable soon.
"The move is largely based on greenback weakness rather than Australian domestic strength ... if the dollar comes off we might see selling perhaps ease up," Mr Herring said.
Companies with significant overseas earnings fell by 10.12am.
BHP Billiton, Australia's biggest stock, declined 51 cents to $45.78, while Rio Tinto slipped $1.17 to $82.20. Fortescue Metals lost 17 cents, or 2.66 per cent, to $6.21.
QBE Insurance lost 52 cents, or 2.71 per cent, to $18.69, CSL slipped 93 cents, or 2.65 per cent, to $34.13, and Brambles fell 10 cents, or 1.44 per cent, to $6.83.
Energy company Australian Worldwide Exploration reported a five per cent fall in quarterly production, and has downgraded annual production guidance.
Its shares were down one cent, or 0.63 per cent, to $1.56.
Orica, which is due to report first half results on Monday, fell 50 cents, or 1.85 per cent, to $26.49.
Gold miner Newcrest slipped 51 cents, or 1.21 per cent, to $41.51, even as the price of the precious metal reached record highs.
Gold's spot price in Sydney was $US1534.95 per fine ounce, up $US3.95 on yesterday's closing price of $US1531. It reached a record $US1537.10 yesterday.
One bright spot was Macquarie Group, which gained after reporting full year earnings.
Macquarie's full year profit declined by nine per cent as the investment bank said earnings in fiscal 2012 were expected to improve on the year just passed. The stock added 31 cents, or 0.89 per cent, to $35.21.
The major retail banks were down, except for National Australia Bank, which added three cents to $27.13.
In other news, Foster's Group shareholders voted to demerge the company into two separately listed companies focussing each on beer and wine. The shares were in a trading halt, having last traded at $5.75.
National turnover at 10.24am was 1.66 billion shares, worth $4.8 billion, with 265 shares up, 784 down and 359 unchanged.


Follow thewest.com.au on Twitter (http://twitter.com/thewest_com_au)

[STRAT]

Soaring dollar sends market lower mid-morning


Hey Colin.
Tricha makes a good point. One which I was driving at in the earlier post. While most of my stocks havent done much this week the exchange rate has been kind to me.

Of course the new US Stock Market highs in that article are only good if you are spending those US dollars in the US.

[percy]

Percy, I think the bull market in Aussie miners has already built in a lot of those anticipated gains. Share markets reflect where the relative national economies are expected to be in a year or so's time, not the present realities.

cavotec are supplying goods and services to the miners.Their order books are filling up,gathering momentum.They expect demand for resourses to greatly increase over the next 20 to 30 years.The population growth in China,India and Brazil will drive greater demand.They are looking a great deal further out than 1 or 2 years.

[Phaedrus]

Here you are Colin - the AllOrds is back to where it was over a year ago.
The SP500 remains Bullish.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds429-2.gif

[Vtrader]

I see the current declines as opportunity for a last collect to go long on your choice of tickers.
Forecast according to EWT is 2 more rises (2-3,4-5) of primary degree, then another downwards period from cycle degree C.
Extrapolation suggests ASX All Ordinaries approx 6000 is possible, however unlikely this may seem today. The alternative is that the peak has just passed and the near future is downwards...
http://i949.photobucket.com/albums/ad333/VtraderNZ/EWT_ASX_APR11.jpg
Chart timescale is mid 2007 to current, 4 years.

Something I learned a while back, prepare for the worst and plan for the best, or words somthing like that. Consider both options and act according to the data available.
Thought today was going to be my day to act, waiting for the trend to be my friend...
V.

[ratkin]

So basically we could go up or down. Who would of thought it?

[drillfix]

Here you are Colin - the AllOrds is back to where it was over a year ago.
The SP500 remains Bullish.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds429-2.gif


Thanks Phaedrus, always good to be able to reference your chart.

Cheers~!

[percy]

So basically we could go up or down. Who would of thought it?

Would like to agree with you, however I feel the market will more likely "flutuate"

[drillfix]

Would like to agree with you, however I feel the market will more likely "flutuate"


We appear to be trading in a range so Agree with you on that percy, providing you add a C before your T .LOL :)

[percy]

We appear to be trading in a range so Agree with you on that percy, providing you add a C before your T .LOL :)

Thank goodness you are paying attention.Was going to say sticky keys,but know I cannot fool you.Did you require a no.7 or was it another no.22 Thai.? Extra rice?

[gazprom1]

A generally disappointing performance on the ASX again today, which seems out of synch with the major world markets. The mining stocks seem under pressure across the board, over recent days, with good opportunities more difficult to find, and I am getting the feeling that the exhilarating times which we have enjoyed with our cavorting in this field, over the last year or two, may be fast coming to an end. No doubt there will be continuing opportunities here and there, but it seems time to begin romping in other fields and I am now starting to switch my focus to the US market, commencing with the tech sector where I am about to make my first purchase - HON:NYSE. I might even pluck up courage to have a bite at Apple, but the price looks mighty scary. No doubt there are much greater opportunities with the smaller fry, among the techs, but one needs time, youth and energy to do the necessary research.

Its also a good opportunity to take advantage of the huge leap in the AUD/US rate, where I believe we could well see a bit of a pullback shortly, although in the medium to longer term it seems that the US dollar will continue to come under increasing pressure.

Keep us posted on how you get on Colin. It has been more difficult to make money IMO this year than the previous couple despite the SP of some companies being hammered and good cashflows, etc. I am going to continue to look at the small cap oil/gas/ coal for opportunities. The property market does not capture my imagination at the moment. Too much capital required to buy a distressed winery and I am overexposed to the farming sector anyway. Could swap some NZDs into GBPs and buy some real estate in the isles of Scotland=)=)

Gazprom

[STRAT]

Thank goodness you are paying attention.Was going to say sticky keys,but know I cannot fool you.Did you require a no.7 or was it another no.22 Thai.? Extra rice?fluctuations eh? Not a word to use in conversation while waiting for that No7. Percy. :lol:

Might get you a punch in the eye.:eek2:

[percy]

fluctuations eh? Not a word to use in conversation while waiting for that No7. Percy. :lol:

Might get you a punch in the eye.:eek2:

Well Strat you certainly knew where I was coming from !!!.Any one not sure should go to
Off Market Discussions,The Spectacled Flowerpecker,post No.138.Yes here on sharetrader.

[COLIN]

Re mining stocks.
Two,no real movement and one up quite a bit, that one you told me to sell :D

GOR blimey!

[COLIN]

RMB is still semi attatched to the USD so I wouldnt do that.

Strat & Tricha:

Thanks for your comments.

Only joking re (physical) conversion to RMB, but eventually the Chinese will have to revalue. (Incidentally I see that their first offshore IPO in RMB was poorly received by the market so it seems they have a long way to go to become a significant reserve currency.)

My earlier comments (re ditching all my Aussie holdings) were not altogether rational but more of a knee-jerk reaction born out of frustration with that current market - which I don't think can be totally explained away by the weakness of the USD. As Sauce comments in his FGE post: "the resources sector is starting to smell very frothy". My exposure is to a large range of mostly micro-cap mining stocks and is quite a few multiples of yours Strat, and while one or two of mine did also rise during the week, by far the majority recorded significant price drops. I can't afford to sit around on my hands, just hoping that this is a temporary aberration. In reality, I will not be withdrawing totally from that sector, and in fact will be using my gold shares as a hedge against my USD investments, at least until the present "inverse relativities" change. I have noticed that several prominent commentators have recently advocated a heavier weighting towards holding US stocks, so I don't feel alone in taking this step, which will be a rather tentative one at first.

[COLIN]

Here you are Colin - the AllOrds is back to where it was over a year ago.
The SP500 remains Bullish.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds429-2.gif

Thanks, Phaedrus. Speaks volumes.

[COLIN]

Keep us posted on how you get on Colin. It has been more difficult to make money IMO this year than the previous couple despite the SP of some companies being hammered and good cashflows, etc. I am going to continue to look at the small cap oil/gas/ coal for opportunities. The property market does not capture my imagination at the moment. Too much capital required to buy a distressed winery and I am overexposed to the farming sector anyway. Could swap some NZDs into GBPs and buy some real estate in the isles of Scotland=)=)

Gazprom

St Helena might be available for a song, Gaz, in this very depressed market for the wine industry!

Diversification of one's portfolio can heighten the sense of satisfaction to be gained from the business of investment, even if it doesn't always lead to optimum returns. I took a small interest in a dairy farm partnership a few years ago, but it hasn't exactly been a roaring success to date, although I think its now looking a lot brighter, with the current level of payouts.

I also have a small holding in an Australian commercial property syndicate. As a matter of interest I noticed today that BT Funds Management show their Property Securities Fund as being one of their best performers for the first quarter of 2011, only bettered by their European Share Fund and their International Technology Fund.

Still keeping an eye on opportunities in Russia, including your namesake company? (I seem to recall that you said once that you had been an investor in it.) I don't have any direct holdings in any Emerging Markets, although I do have some investments in BRIC managed funds.

Onto another week. The markets certainly have a magnetism!

[drillfix]

Evening Folks, as you all know a new trading month awaits us and lets see where things are at prior to the lead off.

For those who are inclined I have prepared a few charts yesterday but was busy so will post them here tonight.

Please excuse some of my commentary as been another busy day and I am starting to fade but will point out anything I feel significant along the way.

Have put these into groups for and Aus section, Some Metals, a US Section and EU other section for referencing where things are at the close of April.

Okay, enough and on with the charts:

=====================AUSTRALIA==================== ===

XAO daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/10bmho5d379wehd54012_All-Ords.png

From the top, OBV is declining which confirms the move down for the past few days. RSI has dropped off below 50 yet remains above 40
Price Candle action will be discussed in the below chart.
Williams %R showing oversold but for how long is unknown.
MACD histogram is negative and signal lines are gradually lowering.

Overall the XAO took a bit of a hit as shown in the chart but apparently due to the Aussie Dollar powering along a bit too strong, if there is such a thing.

Nothing new to where the level of fall had dropped to which again can be read about in the below post.



XAO daily Zoomed >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/4qhldrl8bgtae18j78k_XAO-Zoom.png

I Zoomed a section of the above chart as it clearly shows you some Candle Action with some key indicators and zones that came into full play with a few things in between hence the ZOOM shows this and defines this a bit better and also aids those with poor eye sight to enjoy my Babbles on the subject...LOL

Ok XAO got smashed around a bit apparently due to the Aussie reaching new highs. Clearly you can see Oblique Resistance touched and the candle falling downward and touching the Intermediate Support line at 4,873 which then Bounced off that to close at exactly 4,899.000 which Technically is sound as the low was a bounce off a 4 way TA convergence which as shown in the Zoomed chart means a the bounce off the:

1. The intermediate support
2. The Bottom Bollinger Band and
3. The 90 ema line
4. Rising Oblique Support Line

A slight breach of the 13ema & 30ema can also be seen with the 13ema starting to just tip downwards. Hopefully a this could be resurrected by a change in a fall of the AUD in the coming week after it hits the below forecast (my forecast imo), which then takes me to my next post below.



AUD USD daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/t56f49yym4wr1u55oczj_AU-dollar.png

Aus dollar is pumping and riding the upper bolly band tightly. As mentioned last call, riding the above 13ema and Williams %R showing overbought but this can remain this way for quite some time. MACD signal lines are also powering very high above the already positive MACD histogram. RSI is also extremely strong yet I sense once we reach over 80+ on the RSI the AUD should close or hit a psychological target of $1.10 in which the stock may need to take a breather, which would be healthy and aid to other positive factors in Australian Markets. I say this because the weekly chart also shows a touching of the Red heat zone which acts as oblique resistance so perhaps this is a clear indication that the timing of the daily comments could unfold.

=====================METALS======================= ===

Gold daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/h1nn6n9pm1mv8kmqq0_Gold.png

Gold has broken out of its both daily and weekly rising Oblique now Support lines. Many posts also suggest plenty of hedging against the US dollar going on here.
Technically the chart looks extremely strong to me with many indicators working in its favour although one question I would be inclined to ask myself is long will the RSI stay above the 80 Level before we see a time for a breather setting in? Previous moves do show it has and can do this toggling around the 80 for well over a month but with the previous rise one should look of signs of divergence in the RSI if you are trading gold or have huge exposure to gold both long and short.

Currently just outside its upper bollinger band and will get pulled back for an eventual re-test of the 13ema, or perhaps a eventual slight dip towards the middle Bollinger Band. Williams is Overbought but can remain this way and MACD is positive both signal line and histogram on daily and weekly.



Silver daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/jc6gss56lvwp8kcyt5n_Silver.png

Silver Silver Silver. Was tempted to buy a flute the other day when a friend of mine told me about somebody that had silver flute for sale at over half than retail price and was negotiable. Maybe its time to buy a small jewellery Kiln, Pots, mini furnace to collect all these cheap silver flutes that have bad padding and are hard to play and your average musician who is completely unconcerned with the price of silver may one day wake up and kick himself...lol

Later with the jibber and on with the technicals.



XAG like gold (XAU) has been riding the upper bolly band, yet a bit of price divergence with price failing to make higher highs as drawn in the chart can be seen, is this a confirmation of a breather about to set in? Well, I would say yes to to the MACD histogram also diverging smaller towards the zero line as well as Williams showing a slight touch of readiness to head south.

RSI also had hit near 90 and is now lowering to 82 which may eventually break lower along with other indicators in which case will test the 1st spot where the 13ema is located (light blue line) and then to maybe the middle bollinger band. Who knows what will happen after that as it is best to take it one day or week at a time to tune the answers or speculation to that question.

Intermediate Support seems miles away so with no other oblique support or resistance markers I can only assume the EMA's and bolly bands will be adequate for targeting. But also take note how the 90ema is also now lined up with the bottom bollinger band, perhaps the eventually could be a worst case short term target if push came to complete shove, but I dont believe it will with Big Brother Gold being also so strong, yet a breather will be quite in order eventually and if not Healthy for the next move up if anything.



Copper Futures daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/oqbmfjiki8xzxv12nqpc_Copper.png

Copper futures has broken through support and tested and hopefully is about to bounce off Oblique support at the bottom bollinger band.
Sad part and a big concern to me about this is we have EMA cross overs going on with the 13EMA about or has just crossed the 90ema.

Once or should the 30EMA follow the 13ema to cross the 90 then a test of the 200ema will be a likely probability which could have ramifications whilst the price rides the 13EMA downwards towards the 200ema, which is a down leg/trend.

What I mean by this is, to me this will be a BIG sign for metals and a Barometer for market health showing divergence in the health of the Market???
Not sure if anybody else will subscribe to this view but it would seem worthy to be concerned about. Or at least I will be concerned to say the least.

Rather than panic atm, there is a slight bit of play left in this before any doom sets in so lets see what the AUD dollar does as well as Weekly copper as that still has some room to move towards the bottom bolly band yet it has broken its support.

Sheezus, I never knew I could babble on about copper so much, yet I feel it very significant that we observe and potentially prepare even.



Crude daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/m1pk54q4gnlmtqati3ud_Crude-Oil.png

Crude seems set or by looking at the chart an eventual need to test $115.20 where there is intermediate resistance.

I am not going to say to much with crude as I am not following it as much and dont know the current middle east status or politics.

The weekly chart is touching oblique resistance and for those of you that own oil stocks, the chart is looking strong with intermediate support at approximately $106 a barrel.


===============================================

Folks, I wont say any more regarding OS Markets but I decided to post them here for an End of April Reference, with one in particular being the EWA ISHARES MSCI Australia chart which is Australian Index Fund of Aussie US traded stocks that are trades on the US.

All other charts are the same template markup as the above stocks and the below is used for reference on the health of each part of the US and EU and Nikkei which as you know also completely got trashed the other month due to the unfortunate Tsunami they endured.

=====================US MARKETS=========================

Dow Jones daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/mflztmq2p1kspm5y3zyx_Dow-Jones.png

S&P500 daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ssu76b8fesfjs3pumwt_SP500.png

Nasdaq daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/2414cbnrtikj3kq18jow_Nasdaq.png

Oz Shares US index daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/da7xrizjlux6p4kh2jdm_US-Aus-Stocks.png

======================EU & JAPAN========================

DAX daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/eg23nsmxdku0i41ky8i_Germany.png

UK FTSE daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/k8mt68xxoh56c0u1zsij_UK.png

CAC daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/3t1e990hw26wo7etr26_France.png

Japan Nikkei daily & weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/6uqa67ziee2ch06okmih_Japan.png

===============================================


Ok then folks that's it from me tonight, this post seems to have taken me ages to do.

No doubt I certainly will have bored many of you, as in some ways, I seemed to have said quite a lot without really saying anything...LOL but at least we can see to some degree what went on recently and where some issues or problems or upside too may lay (to some degree).

Either way, I hope you have enjoyed it all the same so looking forward to the week for the beginning of the Prey for May who gives a hoot Month.

Cheers for now and look forward to seeing you all tomorrow :)

[drillfix]

Onto another week. The markets certainly have a magnetism!

Yes indeed Colin, and there seems to be a large Southern Attraction going on. (magnetically that is)

It appears the next stop somewhere will be headed towards the 200ema at around about 4,795.2x which seems to be where the magnetism is deriving from.

I too am getting jack of it so time to mow the lawn or go and talk to the neighbors dog or something.

[soulman]

Yes indeed Colin, and there seems to be a large Southern Attraction going on. (magnetically that is)

It appears the next stop somewhere will be headed towards the 200ema at around about 4,795.2x which seems to be where the magnetism is deriving from.

I too am getting jack of it so time to mow the lawn or go and talk to the neighbors dog or something.

It seems the market is spooked by the strong aussie dollar. Let's hope it's nothing sinister and the dollar can reverse back to $1.05 and under soon.

[drillfix]

It seems the market is spooked by the strong aussie dollar. Let's hope it's nothing sinister and the dollar can reverse back to $1.05 and under soon.

Hi Soulman,

No worries about that mate, $1.10105 just been hit today so if it were me trading Forex I would be preparing for a Short on the AUD.USD while waiting for the Hourly to turn over.

RSI and Williams starting to divert and as mentioned in my longer post, no doubt we will get the indicators turning downwards for the AUD to take a breather.

1st stop $1.09c a little zigzag and then down, down down to the $1.05x zone.

I knew it would be this week, but I guess sooner is much better than later so hopefully by the end of the day or tomorrow we can start to see a bounce for some of these beaten down resource stocks among others.

[drillfix]

In fact yep, TIMBER I believe it has started and Hourly MACD histogram turning red (albeit quite small atm).

On the 15min AUD.USD lower highs in progress and daily MACD divergence so something will give, quite soon as it already has. IMO

[ratkin]

Interesting to see if markets react to bin ladens supposed death (been dead for years imo)

[COLIN]

Interesting to see if markets react to bin ladens supposed death (been dead for years imo)

POG down, according to one report.

[JackSprat]

The maths is doing my head in: 100k share @ 0.049 = $nz6788 @ x rate $1.35
@ 0.06 = $nz8302 @ x rate $1.35
Profit = $nz1514
BUT if Ozz drops to say $1.25 0.06 = $nz7802.

Therefore whatever the number the loss will always be 10%?? or $nz500 for every $au5000 invested?

Still = profit so long as sp goes up.
In the crapo if sp + x rate fall.

Too many balls in the air. Time for another DB

[JackSprat]

At at least they kept the news until the next King of England got married :)

[ratkin]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIHAkqCls4A


Its hammertime

Everywhere you llook , my software explorer finding hammers everywhere

[bermuda]

Interesting to see if markets react to bin ladens supposed death (been dead for years imo)

Do you think the Americans sent him to the moon a few years ago?

[drillfix]

Chart update from today's action.

Positive to start, then heavily negative with huge dumps and the a rally back to give a strong close to the end of day.

This could be seen as positive so perhaps a bounce from here? Who knows, I guess it depends on AUD , metals and a combination of other world events but time sure will tell us which way that's for sure.


XAO daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/wwtgfk5ns7oxfm1boqf_All-Ords.png

For those of you with troubled eyes here is a Zoomed version of the daily.

XAO daily Zoomed>>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/bsbotgi2b4mw784emvdy_XAO-Zoomed.png

Enjoy folks, and cya all tomorrow :)

[drillfix]

Yet another update,

Not quite a lower low than the previous day yet, perhaps a bounce off the 200ma set below? Who knows, more than probable though, IMO.

XAO daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/nptngry9gz573kin6el_All-Ords.png


Aus dollar ready to turn over? Sure think so, take a look anyway. Maybe this can provide some resurrection to our clumsy ASX.

AUD.USD daily >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/lpaiml0vqb44m6gqdmsp_AUD.png


Lets see what today brings, so have a good folks.

[tricha]

WELL where are all your T\A buffs, it is a double top and it looks identical to the last one. Will it go back down to the last low in Jun\Jul 2010.:confused:

Add to it the copper trend, trending down big time. Remember the $US is so much weaker so this trend does not show the true downward magnitude.
QE2 is being wound up, so it all points to a miserable winter.:(


http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-copper-6m.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#6months)


What a picture, looks like a double top forming , like a year ago :mad ;:, the US dollar in a tailspin, hence an illusion of strong commodity prices. Hmm ..................

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds48.gif

[drillfix]

WELL where are all your T\A buffs, it is a double top and it looks identical to the last one. Will it go back down to the last low in Jun\Jul 2010.:confused:

Add to it the copper trend, trending down big time. Remember the $US is so much weaker so this trend does not show the true downward magnitude.
QE2 is being would up, so it all points to a miserable winter.:(



Tricha, of course we are here.

Are you blind or something, or can you got me on ignore so you cannot see my posts?

Give a person a chart, all dressed up but still no where to go~!

Check back a little later tonight for today's bollocks action on the XAO and tell ya what, I will throw you in a copper chart with full commentary too if your here and got your glasses on :P

[tricha]

Tricha, of course we are here.

Are you blind or something, or can you got me on ignore so you cannot see my posts?

Give a person a chart, all dressed up but still no where to go~!

Check back a little later tonight for today's bollocks action on the XAO and tell ya what, I will throw you in a copper chart with full commentary too if your here and got your glasses on :P

Sorry Drillfix, but reading between the lines of your quotes, I'm not sure u know which way the action is going to take.

Drillfix - This could be seen as positive so perhaps a bounce from here? Who knows, I guess it depends on AUD , metals and a combination of other world events but time sure will tell us which way that's for sure.

[tricha]

And to put it frankly, I do not a clue in this world.

A crystal ball right now would be mighty handy.

[drillfix]

Sorry Drillfix, but reading between the lines of your quotes, I'm not sure u know which way the action is going to take.


Thats Ok Tricha, and so you should, and you should know you should never listen to anybody regarding what your own feelings, thoughts or decisions are anyway. As last time I did that, I lost a whole heap of money.


Back to direction, you are not alone, just try to be placed the best way you can and flow which ever way the river flows.

As much as I love to feel that I have a feel to which way the market could go (technically) the truth is, "the market will usually prove us wrong" most times.

So, sorry if my quotes do not give you any confidence, as they are not set to give you any, nor me, nor anybody. They are only to show that here is another guy whom posts charts whom has a veiw, whom is uncertain at this present time except if you read some other statements you will also see we are currently in a decline, which is quite easy to see.

How much it will continue to fall who knows, if you are so keen to find out, why dont you go to a professional service that will tell you that????

If you really dismiss others posts and only want the "Good Feel" or "Exact Crystal Ball Predictions" then why not try a Tarot or Clairvoyant? Perhaps they can help.

I do and am bold enough to Tell you and Post a chart for Right OR Wrong in which case I will tell you where and what only as an Approximation which ONLY I feel it will turn, with my opinion.

Now if I am right, yahh, if I am wrong, then Oh well, But there is no need to Dismiss others peoples efforts like some 3rd world begger trying to interrupt your perfect world or lifestyle, which in case, I am sorry.

But here is my prediction. Its simple, just follow the boxes down until we get a candle that shows a potential reversal in the formation of a Doji or Englulfing Type of Candle.

Here is a chart.

XAO daily and weekly >>>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ghtr64sb43xrpf7gwt8i.png

There you go.

For what is worth, read it, like it, dont like it, or feel however you want to feel, but dont expect Crystal Ball stuff here and dont feel like you are the only one who is worried. Because some of us are only half out and half with our pants down taking a real big hit to some degree, yet we dont post asking for crystal balls and PAID SERVICE which Guarantee Results to which way the market is going to go.

Each moment and day is new. Its simple, and its easy to see which way the market is going, just dont try to fight it. Get your self into a situation whereby you can Short Sell and play both sides of the game rather than just one way, this may increase your capacity to not be long on everything.

Food for thought Tricha, nothing personal and good luck to you hey~!

Cheers :)

[Vtrader]

For my own part I know there are many readers on this site that post very little.
Mostly I contribute where I consider my oppinion to be useful.

Given the indecision apparent, my perspective.
Have been watching a selection of stocks on ASX, with my current selection criteria. Some of them fired yesterday.
Recent EWT of the XJO shows 2 waves of retracements where at the close of play yesterday were of same length (4740) A textbook ABC correction where the XJO currently has an uptrend of 1,2,3,4,5,A,B where if A=C then XJO 4740 =C and is a possible turn. However we all know that life is more fun than textbooks...
Good hunting everyone.
V.

[macduffy]

Now for something a bit different but directly related to this thread.

Don Stammer's lesons from 50 years of investing.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/a-half-century-on-the-financial-roundabout-what-ive-learned-in-50-years-of-finance-and-investing/story-e6frg9r6-1226047122946

[JackSprat]

Not much different from any other race track system - just need to get on the right horse, nwhahahah.

[mickey2]

Thanks for Don Stammer's article, macduffy. Helps to put things in some sort of perspective for me as a relative newcomer. Thanks also to everyone else who contributes to this site. It's like going back to school - but way, way more interesting!
Lol M2

[Hoop]

Not much different from any other race track system - just need to get on the right horse, nwhahahah.

Jack like your humour :) but your statement of Jest is a long way from being correct. At this moment there are two distinct Equity Market race tracks. 3 if you count Japan as it has its own race track.

Using Colin Twiggs charts (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2011-05-04_markets.php#spx) (saves me creating them).

You have the rising trend indexes of America NZ UK France Germany South Africa ...

...and you have the broken up trend lines of Canada India Singapore Taiwan China HongKong Brazil and Australia.
.
.

So...whats causing this 2 way split??
Using Sharemarket theory..and ignoring day by day short-term distraction events..there is the primary driver PE Ratio and the main secondary driver inflation. These two drivers always influence the sharemarket and are the main drivers..
....inflation usually has interest rates as one of its own components and so currency is usually affected by the interest rates...and so on
....PE has its components too, currency being one in global companies, and others e.g Commodities (raw materials) oil ..etc affecting earnings and expenses

Using the theory ...the 2 way split becomes more clear. The Countries that did not enter (officially) into recession or the countries that did but have had quick rebound back into high growth have tighter money supply to curb their inflation. Higher inflation puts downward pressure on the PE Ratio figure and so downward pressure on sharemarket index prices.
These country's sharemarkets have more advanced trends and at this moment the trend has flatlined and their Bull Market cycle is under threat of ending.

Countries with very loose monetary policy such as USA, NZ the sharemarket is less advanced and the flat lining hasn't yet commenced or is just beginning.

So referring back to the All Ords and where it is heading...It is best to ignore the S&P500 as a lead for the time being because the S&P is influence by the USA loose monetary controls (QE2) ...Look towards the Asian countries which did not suffer greatly from the 2008 GFC.

As you can see from Colin Twiggs charts the Asian markets aren't that flash atm. It seems they are heading to test their primary support level which threatens the ending of their Bull market cycle. So I would presume from this that once again the 5050 Resistance top stay intact and the AOrds will waiver around the range between that 5050 and its primary support at 4560 for a longer period than we would wish for.

Things to watch
A possible drop in commodity prices may not be a bad as you might think for Equities.... a disconnect of correlation with Equities is common in the middle and later stages of a Equity bull market. Lower Commodity prices puts upward earnings pressure on PE component in the manufacture, logistics and other commodity users segments and downward earnings pressure on commodity producers.

Watch for Inflation and the response by tightening of the money supply to curb it

One off inflationary events eg rise in GST, local govt surtaxes, I'm not sure of that effect because that inflation % figure moves out of the system as time rolls by.

The Cyclic Bull market cycle is aging probably past it middle stage. Its time to find leading indicator stocks that constantly begin their downtrend before the end of the bull market cycles and watch these stocks for warning signs.

Watch Asian Equity Markets.

Watch the earnings conponent of the PE Ratio

[STRAT]

Thanks Hoop.

[drillfix]

Yes Hoop, good post mate.

Keeps one thinking outside the box there rather than just sitting like a rabbit in front of the high beams.


I am at the point now where I am becoming fearful of buying anything, even for a day or swing trade as this falling market seems to trap you in if your not careful.

There are opportunities here, but only for the fearless and those who are well funded, like plenty of risk and dont mind boot scooting waltz with the devil himself~!

[drillfix]

Tricha, I hope the wording of my previous post to you did not sound like an attack in anyway and if it had, then I am sorry as that is not my intention by no means.

With regards to:


And to put it frankly, I do not a clue in this world.

A crystal ball right now would be mighty handy.


Well, IMO we all do actually do have a clue, yet sometimes we get caught up in trying to view the market the way we would like to see and feel the market rather than just accepting what the market is doing which it is telling us exactly what it is doing everyday. (which atm is declining) But for how long or how far is more to do with the previous Range we seem to be in over the past year and a half or so.

Anyways, no hard feelings hey & if there were a crystal ball then surely some kind person reading these posts would shine it up and give us all the calling of precise answers we seek.

Cheers~!


ps: a while back I am not sure who posted it when there was some discussion over which direction the market is going and it may have been Hoop or was it KW or ?? cant remember but the point I am making is that I agree with them when their statement was:

A longer term chart of the XAO, will show that all our market is doing right now is consolidating.

Hence up, down, up and down until we see the key support or key resistance broken within that range.

Hope that makes sense anyway.

[trackers]

Thanks Hoop, always keen to hear your perspective on things.

[evilroyrule]

Thanks Hoop, always keen to hear your perspective on things.

thanks hoopy, drill, vtrader and others prepared to post and have a stab. reading my fib. rfules of thumb i had a big down on open to bounce (soemthing about 50% fib retrace). looks like i got that wrong. missed out on my horse farm, so im still here.:mellow:

[JackSprat]

Wow, thanks for the 101 ShareMarket Hoop and for the link to Colin Twigg's charts. Seems to be a myriad of signs and indicators all pointing in the one direction except for the Asian block. (Amazing how the Japanese bounced back after their recent turmoil). Despite all the indicators however, often there are other factors that one can't factor in such as war, drought, flood destruction, quakes, tsunamis,twisters or even shooting Bin Larden; more and more tho' in the States anyway people are so edgy because anything is possible now. Only 2 yrs back the subprime implosion wrecked havoc and how much of that still smoulders; something has to give when you're 13oooooooooooox13oooooooooooo (trillion+) in debt. When the big boy falls will everyone else??

[evilroyrule]

russell's got the spinnaker out and bringing her home! that was the sexiest boat never to win a race (yes i knw it was dean barker, but russell the preferred sailor if he navigating the asx through these choppy waters)

drilly, where do we need to finish today to mark a possible reversal?

do fake boobies feel like real ones?

[STRAT]

russell's got the spinnaker out and bringing her home! that was the sexiest boat never to win a race (yes i knw it was dean barker, but russell the preferred sailor if he navigating the asx through these choppy waters)

drilly, where do we need to finish today to mark a possible reversal?

do fake boobies feel like real ones?
Sexy boats have motors,
Who Cares whoes sittin around at the stern.
We need more than a day to be sure
no they dont


But today will add a very nice candle to the chart eh?.
Quite a few of my stocks look bottomed out today

[evilroyrule]

wow thats awesome, thank strat. i got to get myself a feel.

[STRAT]

wow thats awesome, thank strat. i got to get myself a feel.Failing that put some Jello in a nylock bag. Youll get the picture :D

[percy]

missed out on my horse farm, so im still here.:mellow:[/QUOTE]

Sorry you missed out on the horse farm.I am sure the animals are safer and you will be happier staying here on the funny farm with your friends.
ps.I was in Auckland yesterday on a whirlwind trip and saw a truck with NDL written on the side door.Do you think our NDL may be a backdoor entry into the freight business ???

[drillfix]

drilly, where do we need to finish today to mark a possible reversal?

do fake boobies feel like real ones?

ER, I prefer the real booby over fake ones, but if you are fortunate enough to be in a situation to test them whenever you wish then that surely is a good thing right ? :)

With regards to a reversal, as strat has pointed out there seems to be many stocks that have bottomed out, some have beaten others to the punch and others will eventually catch up or make a move once some more movement to the upside is confirmed.

Should you want a chart, I will post one from my Prorealtime acc later once EOD data becomes available.

Cheers~!

[STRAT]

ps.I was in Auckland yesterday on a whirlwind tripNo pun intended. Right? Percy. Whirlwinds aint so popular up here right now.

[percy]

No pun intended. Right? Percy. Whirlwinds aint so popular up here right now.

You don't miss a trick STRAT.I wish I was original with that, but only repeating how some one else described my one day buying trip.
Saw a lot of Placemaker's roof down Bush road.

[drillfix]

For those who enjoy the previous days charts (not much to enjoy the past week or so)

Here is Thursdays XAO, gold, silver, copper and AUD for your viewing interest.


XAO daily weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/pdevklrtzw79exowhiq_All-Ords.png

A test of the 200ema had been done today and bounce upward. I would hardly call it dark cloud or some engulfing candle so I would treat such candle with caution still.

Many bounces has demonstrated some confidence in the spec end of town with many stocks but will this be short lived for a couple days or will the create a potential rally? Caution on the weekly shows W% heading south, RSI fallen below 50 and OBV making a recent low, so regardless of what potential gains could arise in the short term, keep your finger on the pulse, whilst in some trades.

Gold daily weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/5hluctt1b1vvggnhnlcl_Gold.png

Spot Gold (although yesterdays chart) has broken through the 13ema and is testing the Centre Bollinger Band and may even breakthrough the $1,500 level to test the 60ema which resides at $1,484.70 and without a bounce at that area the $1,455.50 level will offer oblique support failing the above mentioned declining targets.

MACD histogram has diverged and W%R is declined to a centre point, RSI is also declining and the Weekly chart also confirms the same movement so a Fall in Gold is imminent for the short term.



Silver daily weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/qtyuw6bli0yb0a5ptji_Silver.png

Hi Ho Silver is becoming OH NO Silver and seems set to test the bottom Bollinger band level which resides at $37.21 which failing that it should test both the 90ema and the oblique rising support line at approximately $36.00

MACD, W%R, RSI shows negative signals as does the weekly chart confirms partial moves downards but RSI on the weekly still remains strong at 59.8 yet also falling downward.

Silver has run pretty hard and is taking a breather as mentioned in previous posts elsewhere regarding the metal.


Copper daily weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/w9m4p28ryrqi0jo2bxh_Copper.png

Copper is slumbering in a downward channel which seems to briefly bounce off of a declining oblique channel line to test the upper declining 13ema yet whilst falling seems destined to test the 200ema close to $4.0559

The daily and weekly indicators which currently are moving close to parallel seem set to offer a potential or eventual readiness for a gradual move upwards.

When this happens it can happen quite fast as we have seen with silver. Suddenly world facts and figures start changing and then becomes flavour of the month or quarter again and then technically attracts the many who thus create the rally supported by any ready favourable news flowing out to support such an upward surprising leap.

Good time to buy copper sold off? or Wait for the starting gun/signal? Who knows, each to their own positions and exposure.


AU Dollar daily weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/b8t49cf0nlwvssc3dvh4_Dollar.png

As also previously mentioned, (see Tricha we do get it right at times) and posted, the AU Dollar topped out at $1.10 and then become sold off and now is tested $1.07 which also now has broken down to test the rising Oblique support line $1.06x which also happens to be the centre bollinger band.

MACD signal line is about to cross over and move downward as has the MACD histogram. W%R is moving downward towards the midzone and RSI although still strong at 57 is also moving downward to test the centre 50 line.

The weekly chart also shows the recent previous top and much of the indicators also show the same but anticipated movement downward, hence I stick with my previous call from late last week regarding a target destination of $1.05x as an approximation.




Well, thats a quick wrap for a Thursday night folks. Good on the brave ones who made moves on what could be seen as a reversal in many stocks, yet IMO keep your wits and at this precise moment in time without becoming too complacent.

Cheers :)

[tricha]

For those who enjoy the previous days charts (not much to enjoy the past week or so)

Here is Thursdays XAO, gold, silver, copper and AUD for your viewing interest.


XAO daily weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/pdevklrtzw79exowhiq_All-Ords.png

A test of the 200ema had been done today and bounce upward. I would hardly call it dark cloud or some engulfing candle so I would treat such candle with caution still.

Many bounces has demonstrated some confidence in the spec end of town with many stocks but will this be short lived for a couple days or will the create a potential rally? Caution on the weekly shows W% heading south, RSI fallen below 50 and OBV making a recent low, so regardless of what potential gains could arise in the short term, keep your finger on the pulse, whilst in some trades.

Gold daily weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/5hluctt1b1vvggnhnlcl_Gold.png

Spot Gold (although yesterdays chart) has broken through the 13ema and is testing the Centre Bollinger Band and may even breakthrough the $1,500 level to test the 60ema which resides at $1,484.70 and without a bounce at that area the $1,455.50 level will offer oblique support failing the above mentioned declining targets.

MACD histogram has diverged and W%R is declined to a centre point, RSI is also declining and the Weekly chart also confirms the same movement so a Fall in Gold is imminent for the short term.



Silver daily weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/qtyuw6bli0yb0a5ptji_Silver.png

Hi Ho Silver is becoming OH NO Silver and seems set to test the bottom Bollinger band level which resides at $37.21 which failing that it should test both the 90ema and the oblique rising support line at approximately $36.00

MACD, W%R, RSI shows negative signals as does the weekly chart confirms partial moves downards but RSI on the weekly still remains strong at 59.8 yet also falling downward.

Silver has run pretty hard and is taking a breather as mentioned in previous posts elsewhere regarding the metal.


Copper daily weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/w9m4p28ryrqi0jo2bxh_Copper.png

Copper is slumbering in a downward channel which seems to briefly bounce off of a declining oblique channel line to test the upper declining 13ema yet whilst falling seems destined to test the 200ema close to $4.0559

The daily and weekly indicators which currently are moving close to parallel seem set to offer a potential or eventual readiness for a gradual move upwards.

When this happens it can happen quite fast as we have seen with silver. Suddenly world facts and figures start changing and then becomes flavour of the month or quarter again and then technically attracts the many who thus create the rally supported by any ready favourable news flowing out to support such an upward surprising leap.

Good time to buy copper sold off? or Wait for the starting gun/signal? Who knows, each to their own positions and exposure.


AU Dollar daily weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/b8t49cf0nlwvssc3dvh4_Dollar.png

As also previously mentioned, (see Tricha we do get it right at times) and posted, silver topped out at $1.10 and then become sold off and now is tested $1.07 which also now has broken down to test the rising Oblique support line $1.06x which also happens to be the centre bollinger band.

MACD signal line is about to cross over and move downward as has the MACD histogram. W%R is moving downward towards the midzone and RSI although still strong at 57 is also moving downward to test the centre 50 line.

The weekly chart also shows the recent previous top and much of the indicators also show the same but anticipated movement downward, hence I stick with my previous call from late last week regarding a target destination of $1.05x as an approximation.




Well, thats a quick wrap for a Thursday night folks. Good on the brave ones who made moves on what could be seen as a reversal in many stocks, yet IMO keep your wits and at this precise moment in time without becoming too complacent.

Cheers :)

Well Copper is plummenting and so seems everything else, I think code red is in order for the next 4 months anyway.