All Ords Index.

[STRAT]

Strat,

I am with you. The cat is still bouncing around and as long it doesn't die, it is all good in the long run. I had the cheque book out right through and overall it is ok.

I reiterate my philosophy: add to your positions in a falling market provided the reasons for purchasing the stock still hold in the current environment. Obviously, if you are an excellent FA and TA person, you can exit and enter to minimise losses in certain market conditions.

Gazprom
Hi Gazprom. Not sure we are actually in agreement there.

I dont believe in averaging down and Im just getting ready. Not committed yet ( though perhaps I should be :p )

[gazprom1]

Strat,

I wasn't implying that you agree with averaging down - so apologies for any inference concerning that. I was saying that I agree with you re the cat and the bounce and your sentiments re getting the cheque book out.

However, I do believe in averaging down on the basis that I have stated before. It has worked for me before and I have averaged down during this last 3 week period and am sure that it will be very rewarding.

Gazprom

[ENP]

I'm going to buy stocks and then also a trampoline. I'll put the trampoline under the cat. Nice!

[Hoop]

No body has mentioned the bear.....denial?

[Serpie]

Here's a guy saying the DJIA is forming a 20 year head + shoulders pattern.... and we're on our way back to 4500 on the DOW.....

It's not the same guy who claimed that his little boy was trapped in a hot air balloon flying across the US is it Matty? Some guys will do anything to get their name in the paper.

I reckon we're in for a good couple of weeks. Everything I was watching through May was falling slowly on light volume. No buyers but not many sellers either. Still loads on money sitting on the sideline (like Stratski) waiting for a pull back to enter. Maybe now is the time to take a stake in oversold companies with strong business models.

Of course North Korea might throw a spanner in the works and nuke something.

[STRAT]

Strat,

I wasn't implying that you agree with averaging down - so apologies for any inference concerning that. I was saying that I agree with you re the cat and the bounce and your sentiments re getting the cheque book out.

However, I do believe in averaging down on the basis that I have stated before. It has worked for me before and I have averaged down during this last 3 week period and am sure that it will be very rewarding.

GazpromNo worries there Gazprom and certainly no appology required

[wbosher]

The DOW had another pretty average day. Monday will be interesting.

[Phaedrus]

Down 122 points is just another pretty average day? A drop of 1.2%? If that's "pretty average", let's hope it doesn't continue!!!!

The odds are Monday will be down, rather than interesting. We follow the Dow more often than not.

[wbosher]

Down 122 points is just another pretty average day? A drop of 1.2%? If that's "pretty average", let's hope it doesn't continue!!!!

The odds are Monday will be down, rather than interesting. We follow the Dow more often than not.

Yeah P, I probobly should have added a :rolleyes: after my last comment.

On a purely selfish note, the longer this continues, the longer I've got to save some more $$$ after having to sell all my stocks to fund a new endevour. ;)

[ENP]

http://thewildinvestor.com/a-long-way-down/

How low can it go?

[STRAT]

Hey whats all this talk about dead cats? I reckon its time to get the cheque book and pen at the ready. Im lookin to buy back my stocks over the next week depending on what transpires over the next two to three days.Hmmm. Not yet :(

[ENP]

Why did you quote yourself strat?

[Jay]

Likes talking to himslef ENP ,some say the most intelligent conversation you can have :-)

Or an update on his thoughts of where we are at?

[STRAT]

Likes talking to himslef ENP ,some say the most intelligent conversation you can have :-)

Or an update on his thoughts of where we are at?
LOL. Good one Jay


Hi ENP.
Im sure it will come to you in time.

[trackers]

LOL. Good one Jay


Hi ENP.
Im sure it will come to you in time.

Haha, love your work Strat.

DOW up a whopping 2.25% overnight and not a peep from anyone? Goes to show how freaked out everyone is with this volatility.

DOW futures green currently for tomorrow, ASX futures up around 1.8%. Oil and Gold in the green also.

Out of all of the above, the fact that oil is rising is probably the signal I'm most happiest with; pricing of commodities seems to be a reasonably accurate smoothed indicator of underlying economic health lately (more so than sharemarket indices...IMO only)

[STRAT]

DOW up a whopping 2.25% overnight and not a peep from anyone? Goes to show how freaked out everyone is with this volatility.

Hi Trackers. Not freaked at all.

I suspect we have seen a bottom of sorts ( short term anyway ) Still got the cheque book ready
but want a bit more confirmation before taking the plunge back in.

Volatility is good for Traders. Even slow moving ones like me

[trackers]

Hi Trackers. Not freaked at all.

I suspect we have seen a bottom of sorts ( short term anyway ) Still got the cheque book ready
but want a bit more confirmation before taking the plunge back in.

Volatility is good for Traders. Even slow moving ones like me

True, as long as the downswings are slow enough that you can get out of the way without too much of a haircut, and the upswings long enough that they actually trigger buy signals!

Still.. the ASX is at Aug09 levels (I think offhand US markets are back to May/June09 levels).. So, all good.

[STRAT]

True, as long as the downswings are slow enough.and long enough to make getting out worthwhile eh?

[Hoop]

Closed at 4506 ...retesting Bull / Bear primary resistance line... Could make for an interesting day tomorrow

[evilroyrule]

good evening mr hoopla.

if you were a betting man, which way would you bet its going to jump; over or under resistance? what do the stars say?

[Hoop]

good evening mr hoopla.

if you were a betting man, which way would you bet its going to jump; over or under resistance? what do the stars say?

No clear direction with leading indicators and the market is still a bear until a trend reversal appears so I'm a pessimist atm..Also remember that spikes in the VIX usually occur at the beginning and ends of major market events so I'm not going to be overly optimistic for a while yet ...Breaking the downtrend line and the 4500 all at once is good news but its not the "popping of champagne" event. The 4500 line was a big deal when the index fell but its the 4680 line that becomes all important once the primary 4500 resistance line is broken back into a support.

so..

Yes there is a good chance of a jump over 4500 but it doesn't mean the correction is over because we are still in bear market, so beware of a suckers rally. If this next rally goes above 4680 would make my worries of a sucker rally disappear. The 4680 (4700) line is the entry point back into a bull market. (higher high).

Anyway...referring to Phaedrus' charts the MSI will probably lose its reddish glow around that 4700 if that level was quickly regained.... so watch his charts.

As for the stars ....ask Yogi

[evilroyrule]

thanks for the reply.

[Hoop]

thanks for the reply.
Evil.... seems the ALL Ords has respected the 4500 resistance line ....

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds64.gif

[winner69]

wouldn't want it fall below 4300 today would we

I think I'll waiy until it is down in the low 3000's again

[COLIN]

wouldn't want it fall below 4300 today would we

I think I'll waiy until it is down in the low 3000's again

We're all doomed, I tell you. Doomed!!!!!!!

DISC: But, just between me and you - and don't tell Phaedrus - I made a sneaky purchase today. And wish I had bought more HUN at the depressed opening prices.

[Footsie]

now is not the time to be a hero. phaedrus has proven his charts work. Best listen and put yourself on a buying freeze. This market could be at 4,000 within a matter of days if the selling gathers in intensity.

[COLIN]

now is not the time to be a hero. phaedrus has proven his charts work. Best listen and put yourself on a buying freeze. This market could be at 4,000 within a matter of days if the selling gathers in intensity.
Footsie: Just to clear up any misunderstanding: I have the greatest respect for Phaedrus' charts and am only too well aware they "work" as you put it. I am basically in a buying freeze myself at the moment, except for what I term "special situations", e.g. I invite you to have a peek at the HUN story/charts and you might even be able to convince yourself that a few judiciously timed purchases could be quite rewarding.

[Stranger_Danger]

Oh boy. I can't wait for Phaedrus and his post on "judicious timing", coming up real soon I suspect :)

Disc : Studying, researching, adding to watchlist. Not buying yet though.

[evilroyrule]

not sure when independant thinking became such a crime

[Dr_Who]

It is nasty out there. Lets see what tonight brings.

[winner69]

It is nasty out there. Lets see what tonight brings.

Bit of green on my watch list though .... whoops the NZ stocks from friday

[STRAT]

Oh boy. I can't wait for Phaedrus and his post on "judicious timing", coming up real soon I suspect :)

Disc : Studying, researching, adding to watchlist. Not buying yet though.lol


Yeah "judicious timing" is everything

[scorp57]

once again the chart is red... and has been accurate so far... after every up day or bounce, the MSI stays red, and then down we go again. Phaedrus' chart is the best thing to ever come out of my Sharetrader experience... bar none. Very lucky to have access to it.
Thanks P! Most of us appreciate it!

[COLIN]

lol


Yeah "judicious timing" is everything
You guys can mock all you like, but let me tell you what my one modest purchase at the start of today was: ARP - check it out. Time may well prove that it was "injudicious" but we shall see. You will just have to allow me my little "indiscretion". (SLR is also on my watchlist, and I have paid the price for not acting on the signals).

And in relation to HUN: No, I did not buy any more today. However, my recent purchase at 70c during the "red alert" paid off handsomely. So, go and laugh that one off!

As regular readers well know, I also am a confirmed "worshipper" of Phaedrus. However, I would not follow him into a fiery furnace, and I am sure he would not expect me to!

There now, I feel better.

Have a good week everyone.

Yours affectionately,

COLIN, the independent thinker.

[Lizard]

Well done, Colin.

During the GFC1, I made a few calculations at one point that showed that 96% of ASX stocks fell over the period Dec 2007 to Nov 2008. About 75% of those that rose were small-cap stocks - market cap under $100m and often illiquid. In fact, if you required a minimum return of 10% to be worth the market risk and were only invested in stocks with market cap above $100m, then by my calculations, there were only about 12 stocks on the entire ASX that could have got that. The conclusion was that in a broad market downturn, that a long-term holder was almost guaranteed to lose money.

Despite that, my records show that I made quite a few good purchases during the period when I felt particular stocks had been beaten up beyond reason.

[ENP]

"It's like the sharemarkets around the world have taken viagra due to government stimulus and now the viagra is wearing off"

Found that quote this morning. Quite funny. Hope everyone had an enjoyable long weekend.

[STRAT]

You guys can mock all you like, but let me tell you what my one modest purchase at the start of today was: ARP - check it out. Time may well prove that it was "injudicious" but we shall see. You will just have to allow me my little "indiscretion". (SLR is also on my watchlist, and I have paid the price for not acting on the signals).

And in relation to HUN: No, I did not buy any more today. However, my recent purchase at 70c during the "red alert" paid off handsomely. So, go and laugh that one off!

As regular readers well know, I also am a confirmed "worshipper" of Phaedrus. However, I would not follow him into a fiery furnace, and I am sure he would not expect me to!

There now, I feel better.

Have a good week everyone.

Yours affectionately,

COLIN, the independent thinker.Wasnt aimed at you Colin. I was aiming at myself actually and well done with the HUN by the way

[STRAT]

Hi Colin
I just had a look at HUN
Would be interested in the signals that triggered the purchase.

I see it as being a buy a few weeks ago and now a sell or at least putting a tight stop in place.

Not gettin at ya in any way ;) just trying to learn new ideas myself

[evilroyrule]

what a funny old world. all ords goes blue.

[winner69]

So are asian market further west .... Ben B made some nice comments about US economy and Japan is surplus.Old Ben B ... you don't 'take this guy seriously even if he runs the Fed' ......... in quotes that remark .... repeating your comment on that guy Hussman (the PhD guy) .... funny that Hussman is also mentioned in this Australian article today ..... ends with the comment "Now we are seeing some of the fearful results of Obama's and Bernanke's ignorance. It shows you what can happen when professors face the real world. Yes, Obama and Bernanke were both professors.”

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Wall-Street-Dow-stockmarket-bear-market-pd20100608-67SQL?OpenDocument&src=sph

I think we better make our own minds up eh Belg .... what you read is a load of crap

[Zito]

Gotta agree with you there. Guys like Obama as president & Bernanke in charge of the Fed should scare the bejeezus out of every right-thinking American. Sheesh! As if Bush wasn't bad enough...

These guys think they can simply wind up their printing presses and hey presto! ... no more debt, no more GFC, no more meltdown, no more recession.

Creating paper money to solve today's real problems is like painting a room without doing the prep....it looks good for a while but pretty soon everyone who comes to visit sees what a 5hit job you've done. The bill for this generations profligacy may not rest with this generation but it will fall due.

Economic growth is not economic growth if it is not backed by real savings. A is A.


Z

[STRAT]

Hmmm.

Obama will do what his advisers tell him to do and the Fed will do what ever is good for the Fed

[COLIN]

Wasnt aimed at you Colin. I was aiming at myself actually and well done with the HUN by the way

Thanks, Strat. You're a brick. (When I was younger that term was a compliment - with the passing of the years I do hope that it is still seen as such, but one can never be too sure these days!)

Anyway, as regards my two forays into HUN: I cannot claim any particular technical expertise in coming to my buy/sell decisions other than that I:
1. Study the simple price movement trend of the individual share, also comparing it with its peers and with the market generally,
2. Study the buying versus selling strength, and watch any changes in the relative trends,
3. satisfy myself on the fundamentals, industry trends and the like.

Perhaps I'm really a "hybrid" investor, i.e. main power source is internal combustion (TA) but supplemented by FA.

I agree that HUN is again losing strength, and I would probably be well advised to once more take profit and wait for the next uptick.

[Hoop]

1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators http://www.gold-eagle.com/images/clear.gif http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/images/seymour062001.gif Chart locations are an approximate indication only





"We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927

"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928 "There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
"No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."
- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928

"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929

"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929 "This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
"There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline."
- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929
"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices."
- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929
"This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929 "Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted"
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929
"The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."
- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929 "Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."
- The Times of London, November 2, 1929
"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before."
- Business Week, November 2, 1929
"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929
"... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall."
- HES, November 10, 1929 "The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."
- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929
"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."
- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929
"Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929
"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929 "I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929
"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929
"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

"...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930

"There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930

"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930 "... the outlook continues favorable..."
- HES Mar 29, 1930
"... the outlook is favorable..."
- HES Apr 19, 1930

"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930 "...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."
- HES May 17, 1930
"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930
"... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."
- HES June 28, 1930

"... the present depression has about spent its force..."
- HES, Aug 30, 1930

"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
- HES Nov 15, 1930

"Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."
- HES Oct 31, 1931

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

Colin J. Seymour, June 2001
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking (http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/%7Enetking)
20 June 2001

From: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html

[STRAT]

Thanks, Strat. You're a brick. (When I was younger that term was a compliment - with the passing of the years I do hope that it is still seen as such, but one can never be too sure these days!)

.According to this page Colin, at a stretch you could be calling me a cold hearted dim witted drugie :lol::lol::lol::blush:

http://onlineslangdictionary.com/definition+of/brick



but Im old enough to know what you meant :D

[beacon]

[FONT=Comic Sans MS]1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators

Makes one wonder, doesn't it? But what would you rather have Hoop? All doom and gloom. Some apparently respected folk there, trying to calm the markets. Its hard without foresight ...

[axion]

The problem is that it's impossible to tell who is right until they are wrong.

[evilroyrule]

good news out of china turned the day around. hang seng strong tonight, dow futures green. for now at least the rot has stopped, just like the worm to turn up. maybe now those p/e ratios are back in balance hoop, we can get back to business?

[Dr_Who]

KABOOM!

Anyone buying or is this a dead cat bounce?

[trackers]

KABOOM!

Anyone buying or is this a dead cat bounce?

Over the last few months instead of big rises meaning we're turning a corner, they've generally been followed by big falls and more rubbish... I'd prefer a week of 0.5% gains to be honest!!

But then again, who knows what the future will bring this time around....

[trackers]

Getting close now (in my opinion...)

http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3618/96842962.png

[Footsie]

are we green yet phaedrus?

[The Big Ease]

I think the dji would need to be 10350 before we can see red disappear.

[Footsie]

TBE . DJ is now 10404

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds616.gif

[trackers]

Thanks Phaedrus, interesting to see S&P500 ribbon still red

[The Big Ease]

TBE . DJ is now 10404

I think it's safe to say the red in P's chart will have changed colour. I would be surprised if it has not, but let's wait and see.
The market seems to have thrown off rumblings about spain and a further downgrade of greek debt.

[Hoop]

Closed at 4518..Its looking promising...and today could see the 4500ish primary resistance break upside "well and truely" which would be the first confirmation and another positive is the steep 2 month downtrend line has broken down ...it indicates a possibility that that a bottom may have been been set at 4300....still needs more confirmation to be sure.

I would dearly love to see this last 3 month event (and all its drama involved with the permabear doomsayers out in force big time) turning out to be a long deep bull market correction with a bear trap included in it for good measure as my portfolio has taken a beating. ....however...

We are not out of the bear infested woods yet

Caution is still needed ....The All Ords needs to break through the 4700 (4680) line to confirm that this rally is not the sucker type.

Up until that 4700 line, the market is still deemed a bear status so this rally must be treated with caution up to that point at least.

Phaedrus charts agrees at 4518 as it is still red

[whirly]

With all the talk of folks selling into a rally when it happens I plan to sit and watch for another day or two. Had to sell all stocks bar one speccy on the way down so hoping the market doesn't rally too quickly and leave me behind. Again!

[Footsie]

KW - A sound strategy that seems to be working. Good on you

[Hoop]

KW..... did you notice the markets went up on bad news and no good news today...now that's a bullish sign ..eh

[Lizard]

All is going according to expectation - which is that the market will spend the year bouncing around a bit.

Is it the market revenge for Phaedrus' highly successful MSI indicator? i.e. the moment you find a sure thing in the market, it will no longer be a sure thing...

Time to fine-tune the range trading indicators, or do we just buy the red and sell the green?

[STRAT]

Time to fine-tune the range trading indicators, or do we just buy the red and sell the green?Hi Liz,
I dont think Phaedrus ever intended the MSI to be a buy all, sell all type of tool, rather to be used in conjunction with TA on individual stocks.

[mr.needs]

Hi Liz,
I dont think Phaedrus ever intended the MSI to be a buy all, sell all type of tool, rather to be used in conjunction with TA on individual stocks.

How about if you apply the same MSI technique to an individual stock? Or use the All Ords MSI to buy/sell the index? When the indicator is green buy all (the index), and when red sell all.

As far as I understand, the MSI is just a combination of various technical indicators that have been normalised to +/-1. Its a way of visualising several TA techniques simultaneously, with pretty colours of course! No reason why it couldn't be applied a particular stock, and not just the market.

(Based on my understanding of how P. has described his MSI, feel free to correct!)

[Lizard]

Hi Liz,
I dont think Phaedrus ever intended the MSI to be a buy all, sell all type of tool, rather to be used in conjunction with TA on individual stocks.

Strat,

meant to be a just tongue-in-cheek comment about the peverseness of the market. I suspect Phaedrus' MSI is still more useful in a trending market than a sideways one. (But I have absolute faith in Phaedrus being quite able to adapt to whatever type of market we have if need be!)

[STRAT]

How about if you apply the same MSI technique to an individual stock? Or use the All Ords MSI to buy/sell the index? When the indicator is green buy all (the index), and when red sell all.

As far as I understand, the MSI is just a combination of various technical indicators that have been normalised to +/-1. Its a way of visualising several TA techniques simultaneously, with pretty colours of course! No reason why it couldn't be applied a particular stock, and not just the market.

(Based on my understanding of how P. has described his MSI, feel free to correct!)Hi Mr Needs
I m not sure but that is a reasonable assumption. First though you would need to buy/bum a copy of the MSI from Mr P.

[STRAT]

Strat,

meant to be a just tongue-in-cheek comment about the peverseness of the market. I suspect Phaedrus' MSI is still more useful in a trending market than a sideways one. (But I have absolute faith in Phaedrus being quite able to adapt to whatever type of market we have if need be!)Sorry Liz, couldnt see your tongue or your cheek from here.
:D

[Jay]

Hi Mr Needs
I m not sure but that is a reasonable assumption. First though you would need to buy/bum a copy of the MSI from Mr P.

A few of us with Meatstock would be interested in that - both versions the indicator at the top of a chart or as he applies it to the the price chart - is it available for a small fee ????

[trackers]

three out of five indicators are showing XAO as a buy for me. One more and we're off to the races in my humble opinion:

Relative Momentum Index (30) pushing through 50 from below
Relative Strength Index (30) pushing through 50 from below
Slow Stochastic Oscillator pushed above 50 from below

Yet to turn:

Break through 90 day Moving Average (so close!)
Directional Movement Indicator still not looking flash


The last times these all fired were a buy signal in the first week of March and a sell signal in the last week of April

[trackers]

Macd ... ????

MACD became bullish at the end of May with a signal line crossover, but has yet to do a center-line crossover (its at -4 as at yesterday.. so, very close!)

[whirly]

None of my indicators have triggered yet. Though I probably run more conservative indicators than many.

A break above 200 day simple MA would probably coincide with my other indicators and offer an entry point for me.

[Phaedrus]

This chart shows the Market Strength Indicator colour coding combined with a selection of conventional technical indicators.
See how the simple 90 day moving average shows a close correlation with the MSI.
Notice that a 200 day simple moving average (as used by Whirly and many other conservative investors) corresponds well with the signals from the other indicators featured at the top of the chart.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/aLLoRDS623.gif

[Footsie]

a picture paints a thousand words

[Phaedrus]

Problem is those indicator parameters at the top of the chart change with each chart....Of course they do - they are varied in accordance with the purpose of the chart. The same indicators can be used for short, medium and long-term trends - the time period is varied to accomplish this.


.....adjusted accordingly to suit whatever the MSI is showing, in this case the Slow Stochastic 220,3.Wrong. These indicators have NOT been adjusted to fit the MSI. This is an 8 year long-term chart and the indicators are for monitoring the LONG-TERM trends. Their respective values were set for that express purpose. Long-term indicators need longer time periods.


.....but THIS (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6971-All-Ords-Index.&p=303928&highlight=#post303928)one is using 80,3 All the indicators in this chart were set up to provide signals approximately equivalent to the MSI - this was the specific purpose of the post.


How can we possiby know what parameters to use ahead of time to get the same results as the MSI?By reading THIS (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6971-All-Ords-Index.&p=303928&highlight=#post303928)post!!! All parameters provided. Ahead of time.


If we had used the parameters in the link we would have a different looking chart and signals then the one above.I should certainly hope so! One focussed on the longterm trends, the other on the MSI and its approximately equivalent technical indicators.


How accurate or in-accurate those indicator signals will be depends entirely on the parameters used.The usefulness of any indicator is contingent on using parameters appropriate for the intended purpose.


I think even Nostradamus would have trouble picking the correct parameters to use to get perfectly accurate signals to trade on in real time.No-one, no system, can give "perfectly accurate signals", AA. You should know that!


I hope for the sake of all of us reading these charts that the MSI can predict and apply the perfect parameters to use in real time to give the very best signal entries and exits for great future results so we can all become billionaires.The MSI is an objective measure of market strength. It cannot and does not predict anything. It is NOT a trading system. It does not guarantee that you will become a billionaire. It can be useful in helping people to stay in rising markets - and more importantly, out of falling ones.


["Time to fine-tune the range trading indicators?"] No need to fine-tune the trading indicators Liz , the MSI will do this for us automatically.Liz's comment referred to RANGE trading indicators. The MSI acts like a trend indicator and is most certainly NOT suitable for use as a range trading indicator.

What's with the sarcasm here AA? Why the hostility? You may not appreciate or understand my posts, but there are plenty of others here on ST that do.

[trackers]

Looking grim again....



http://iforce.co.nz/i/45kfvpp1.bmp

[winner69]

I see the high for the day was over 5000

[winner69]

Agh so .... hope they fix all the charts then

[Toulouse - Luzern]

I was watching the ASX 200 on the DB site and I took a second look at the spike.
I checked on the chart on the Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) website and they had no spike so I assumed an error

[trackers]

Following on from here: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4603-PRC-Pike-River-Coal&p=307628&viewfull=1#post307628

Has the All Ords broken out downwards from an ascending broadening wedge pattern thats formed in the short term (month)?? Looks that way to me

http://iforce.co.nz/i/zamundgt.bmp

Price trend - Can be up or down leading to the pattern tick
Shape - A megaphone tilted up. Refer to the above figure. tick
Trendlines - Both trendlines slope upward. The top one slopes more steeply than the bottom one. tick
Touches - At least three peaks and three valleys should touch their respective trendline.tick (just)
Volume - Irregular but trends upward 64% of the time. N/A
Breakout - Downward 73% of the time. ??

[Hoop]

Following on from here: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4603-PRC-Pike-River-Coal&p=307628&viewfull=1#post307628

Has the All Ords broken out downwards from an ascending broadening wedge pattern thats formed in the short term (month)?? Looks that way to me

Unfortunately it seems so to me too..Trackers.:(
Confirms the bear market behaviour. If the drop below 4280 happens it would show this latest rally was a sucker type (failed to make a higher high (4700+).

Don't like to say this... but the TA target will be 3920(3760*) if it fails the 4280(4200*) support ...rather nasty target drop and it is hard to imagine it happening, but the odds are favouring that outcome

Strangely enough my other personal warning indicators are been negative for a while now but are looking very much better UPDATE 8.57pm NZtime My base metals index personal leading indicators have suddenly got very ugly tonight. This divergence is strange, so I'm hoping for a 4280 being a very strong support area...lets hope so as it would present a more positive double bottom outlook.

So once again the 4280 (4286) becomes the next focal point that everything TA hangs off.

EDIT: (* ... factoring in the 4194 down spike)

[trackers]

Unfortunately it seems so to me too..Trackers.:(
Confirms the bear market behaviour. If the drop below 4280 happens it would show this latest rally was a sucker type (failed to make a higher high (4700+).

Don't like to say this... but the TA target will be 3920(3760*) if it fails the 4280(4200*) support ...rather nasty target drop and it is hard to imagine it happening, but the odds are favouring that outcome

Strangely enough my other personal warning indicators are been negative for a while now but are looking very much better UPDATE 8.57pm NZtime My base metals index personal leading indicators have suddenly got very ugly tonight. This divergence is strange, so I'm hoping for a 4280 being a very strong support area...lets hope so as it would present a more positive double bottom outlook.

So once again the 4280 (4286) becomes the next focal point that everything TA hangs off.

EDIT: (* ... factoring in the 4194 down spike)

Hi Hoop,

Thanks for this, very interesting.. Futures pointing to a 93 point fall on open for all ords which would be 4370 - 93 = 4277!!!

[Hoop]

Hi Hoop,

Thanks for this, very interesting.. Futures pointing to a 93 point fall on open for all ords which would be 4370 - 93 = 4277!!!

Yeah.. in realty...TA can be rather gripping ..a bit like a soap opera.

Its 12.53pm (10.53am OZtime) the All Ords sit at ...yep you guessed it 4280
Is it holding 4280 support floor or was it busted at opening (4273) and its hitting the 4280 resistance lid

...all will be revealed in the next exciting episode of..... "Days of our Lives":mellow:

Edit:...Next episode 1.30pm (11.30am OZtime)..intraday4295.. the 4280 is identified as support and proving a strong support.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Agree - fascinating ...
STW (ASX200 iShares ETF traded on the ASX) now at 4001 which is -1.8% today.
Low was 3985...
ASX200 Index is now at 4269 and is -1.8%.
Index is also off its lows as the Aussies go to lunch ...

[Footsie]

you'd have to think there will at least be a 1-2 day bounce of this 4280 ASX level and 1040sp500 level... beyond that...anyone's guess

[trackers]

Yeah.. in realty...TA can be rather gripping ..a bit like a soap opera.

Its 12.53pm (10.53am OZtime) the All Ords sit at ...yep you guessed it 4280
Is it holding 4280 support floor or was it busted at opening (4273) and its hitting the 4280 resistance lid

...all will be revealed in the next exciting episode of..... "Days of our Lives":mellow:

Edit:...Next episode 1.30pm (11.30am OZtime)..intraday4295.. the 4280 is identified as support and proving a strong support.

Soap Opera sounds good to me Hoop: Boring and predictable...

Wouldn't that be nice??

I'm glad I've finally taken the effort to learning TA this year, its saved me a bundle ..and counting

[Toulouse - Luzern]

I agree with Trackers quote below

I'm glad I've finally taken the effort to learning TA this year, its saved me a bundle ..and counting

In my case thanks to Phaedrus posts ...

[Toulouse - Luzern]

I see STW has just posted a new high for the day at 4015...

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds630a.gif

[geezy]

from my very limited understanding of the charts, the one that phaedrus just posted looks bad .

[Hoop]

from my very limited understanding of the charts, the one that phaedrus just posted looks bad .
Looks worse now Geezy...
Closed at 4263 down 62 (-1.4%) the strong 4280 support busted..now a 4280 resistance level ...another confirmation for the TA cyclic bear market. (+ the sucker rally) so there's no doubt now..... Next target 4000.

[trackers]

Looks worse now Geezy...
Closed at 4263 down 62 (-1.4%) the strong 4280 support busted..now a 4280 resistance level ...another confirmation for the TA cyclic bear market. (+ the sucker rally) so there's no doubt now..... Next target 4000.

Hi Hoop, yup doesn't look great.. And probably more to come today after a poor day for stocks and commodities in the US.

All Ords is at a 2010 low.. In fact, the last time it hit these levels was 31/07/2009 so there goes a year worth of gains ey?

[macduffy]

News coming through of a resolution to the resource super tax issue.

Expect the big Aussie miners to have a good day!

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Up from yesterdays close but not as much as I expected from the open today ...

Today BHP open 3760, High 3766 currently 3746 Low 3735

Today ASX all ords High 4304 Low 4270 currently 4277

[trackers]

Up from yesterdays close but not as much as I expected from the open today ...

Today BHP open 3760, High 3766 currently 3746 Low 3735

Today ASX all ords High 4304 Low 4270 currently 4277

Thanks for that Toulouse, interesting Green day after a red lead-in from the US - Shows the impact this RSPT legislation has on the investment community!

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds73b.gif

[fihr]

Thanks for posting that, Phaedrus. Overlaying the MSI with my other rules has kept my portfolio stable this year, after initial heavy losses back in January which resulted in me modifying some of my rules. I've been following the markets with interest, and sleeping well at night. There will come another market when it will be easy for long strategies to do well again.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

As we move into June QTR reporting time period, company news from ASX companies is a factor to consider ...

For example ABC is a $1.8B company and posted improved results today...

Adel Brtn ABC.ASX SP Increase cents 22 Increase% 8.2% SP 291 Value $14,611,133 Vol 5,033,367

Here is the Link to ASX notification:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100705/pdf/31r5pqyjyd7bc6.pdf

[Footsie]

nice bounce today... 100 points off the low

[fihr]

I do confess to buying some Gunns shares this week, due to the uptrend. That portfolio doesn't stop when the MSI goes red, but there have been very few buys. The other one does stop buying, and waits for other exit signals for stocks already owned.

[trackers]

Any chance of an updated ALL ORDS Msi chart Phaedrus? Please :)

[STRAT]

Any chance of an updated ALL ORDS Msi chart Phaedrus? Please :)Id be keen to see that too P.

Am keen to see if anything happened with the MSI around the 23rd last month as I thought I saw a few positive signals around that time

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds84.gif

Mrs P and I are off to bake our bones on a coral strand so this will be my last chart for a little while.

[STRAT]

Now thats service. Didnt even get my post out before delivery :D Thanks P. Enjoy your holiday.

[trackers]

Thanks heaps :)

Enjoy your holiday, skipping the last of winter sounds nice..

[drillfix]

Hi there folks,

Been a while, and I must say, its been a challenge at times not to log in and post but I have been keeping quite busy with a variety of things.

Hope you have all been making loads with your trades and caught a few stocks at their lows from the previous dip and now rebound.

Question is, how long do you think this rebound will last? Who knows, who cares as long as you dont forget to take some profit along the way hey :P

Cheers again,
DF :)

[Footsie]

it will be interesting to see if this green develops into a whipsaw.... of note, a lot of my stocks are now trading above where they were at the start of the year when the index was at 5,000
what does that mean?
well i think it means Mr P system should be used as one of the tools you have in your toolbox. but not a perfect system. UNLESS you are trading index futures. then its perfect.

[evilroyrule]

mt footy, whipsaw, does that mean slingshot higher or lower? or up and down? (and all around). i like the word but have never heard it used. "that is a nice looking whipsaw sarah. yes, i grew it myself"

[trackers]

Hi there folks,

Been a while, and I must say, its been a challenge at times not to log in and post but I have been keeping quite busy with a variety of things.

Hope you have all been making loads with your trades and caught a few stocks at their lows from the previous dip and now rebound.

Question is, how long do you think this rebound will last? Who knows, who cares as long as you dont forget to take some profit along the way hey :P

Cheers again,
DF :)

Hey Drilly,

good to see ya!! Hope everythings going well

[shasta]

Hi there folks,

Been a while, and I must say, its been a challenge at times not to log in and post but I have been keeping quite busy with a variety of things.

Hope you have all been making loads with your trades and caught a few stocks at their lows from the previous dip and now rebound.

Question is, how long do you think this rebound will last? Who knows, who cares as long as you dont forget to take some profit along the way hey :P

Cheers again,
DF :)

Great to see you back Drilly!

[percy]

Hi there folks,

Been a while, and I must say, its been a challenge at times not to log in and post but I have been keeping quite busy with a variety of things.

Hope you have all been making loads with your trades and caught a few stocks at their lows from the previous dip and now rebound.

Question is, how long do you think this rebound will last? Who knows, who cares as long as you dont forget to take some profit along the way hey :P

Cheers again,
DF :)

drillfix. you have been sorely missed.Welcome back.I have no idea where the market is going,but your comments and ideas add a lot of colour, where ever the markets lead us.I am only starting to make a bit of money again,and it is mainly from long term holds,like AVE,WTF and in NZ EBO,RYM and NPX

[drillfix]

Thanks for all the warm welcome back guys.

As I say, have just dropped in to say a big Hello and that I hope you are all keeping well.

Has been a very testing few months and I have been juggling lots of things with continued study as well as winning, losing, breaking even, but most of all >> surviving. (at least just).

I find that as time passes we find and define our style, instrument and technique to trade effortlessly.
(I hope..lol)

One thing about trading some US stocks, futures and currency is being able to take shorts. But then this too is also another way to get your self in hot water if you take the wrong setup :eek2: :P

Cheers again and catch up again another time. :t_up:




Hey Drilly, good to see ya!! Hope everythings going well


Great to see you back Drilly!


drillfix. you have been sorely missed.Welcome back.I have no idea where the market is going,but your comments and ideas add a lot of colour, where ever the markets lead us.I am only starting to make a bit of money again,and it is mainly from long term holds,like AVE,WTF and in NZ EBO,RYM and NPX

[gazprom1]

DF,

You wouldn't believe it but I posted on PLV y'day referring to you not knowing that you were posting on the ASX thread. Glad you are back posting. Have been away for 8 weeks so just getting back into trading. Been smashed in NGE and MAK. Making a little back in CVN and TAP at the moment. Back to evens nearly with PLV. Finally took the plunge into silver bullion....bought some swiss bars in Guernsey and I am storing them at a mates place...great to actually tocuh an asset unlike shares.

Drop me email when you get the chance.

Take care,
GAz

[drillfix]

DF,

You wouldn't believe it but I posted on PLV y'day referring to you not knowing that you were posting on the ASX thread. Glad you are back posting. Have been away for 8 weeks so just getting back into trading. Been smashed in NGE and MAK. Making a little back in CVN and TAP at the moment. Back to evens nearly with PLV. Finally took the plunge into silver bullion....bought some swiss bars in Guernsey and I am storing them at a mates place...great to actually tocuh an asset unlike shares.

Drop me email when you get the chance.

Take care,
GAz


Hi there Gaz,

Great to hear from you too there mate and sorry to hear you taking a whooping on MAK and NGE. I was tempted to buy some NGE today and MAK has had a bit of a bounce from 20c though but that's no consolation for you though if you bought higher.

Today is the first day I have bought stocks since the last time I posted prior to the big fall back in April (?) but saying that, I do not plan on holding them for a great deal of time and do not wish to be holding anything at the end of August.

With regards to PLV, I only hold a very small holding along with a tiny quantity of shares and options in a couple of other companies that aren't really worth selling so I guess I will just sit on it until when or whatever. Do you think you will consider.

Will email you an update a little later on although, take care for now :)

[STRAT]

Today is the first day I have bought stocks since the last time I posted prior to the big fall back in April (?) but saying that, I do not plan on holding them for a great deal of time and do not wish to be holding anything at the end of August.
There may have been other reasons for your departure but all in all thats pretty good timing I reckon Drillfix at both ends.

Whats with the end of August?

[drillfix]

There may have been other reasons for your departure but all in all thats pretty good timing I reckon Drillfix at both ends.

Whats with the end of August?

Strat, to me the end of August is only an approximation for what I would call a 2nd Coming.


Call it superstition, call it paranoia, call it whatever you wish, but too me things are gonna (will have to) come to a head which will equate to a breakdown (again). To me there is still not enough accountability in the bigger scheme of things.

To me there is still not enough accountability in the bigger scheme of things.

As you know, I dont have a crystal ball, tea leave's & rolling bones to play with, so for me its more of a defensive attitude and one like that of last fall saved me a great deal of stress., so in the meantime its basically musical chairs and I cant afford to be left without a seat.

Guess time will tell.

[Footsie]

where's Mr P when you need him............ ON A BEACH.

what a lifestyle.
oh well he's earned it I guess.

Futures pointing to another 80 point down day.

[peat]

you dont need anyone else to tell you whats happening if you're following a trend based system.

[geezy]

suprise rise judging from the bad news from the US ?

[tobo]

Growth is all over the place.
just from BBCworld news:

Germany in 'record' 2.2% growth [but just for 3 months ]
Germany's economy grew at its fastest rate for more than 20 years from April to June, outpacing eurozone neighbours and the UK.

Greek GDP shrinks a further 1.5%
The Greek economy contracted by a further 1.5% in the second quarter of the year, the country's statistics agency says.

Spain. It's economy grew by a measly 0.2 percent between April and June.

Chinese ...
The government has imposed new restrictions on property transactions- targeting both buyers and developers to try to cool the market.
It has told the banks to cut back their lending. And it has continued to wind down the economic stimulus package - the massive programme of infrastructure investment that had got the country through the world financial crisis.
But July's data suggest that property construction is still growing more strongly than expected. Exports too.

[geezy]

china banks are goin thru a stress test in the event property prices dip 60% and how their banks will be able to cope with that .

OZ market showing great resilience despite bad news from the US.

[COLIN]

Now that the All Ords has rocketed back up through the 4500 psychological barrier it seems to have regained a fresh burst of confidence today.

[STRAT]

How are you TA guys reading the chart these days and are you actively trading the swings?

Ive been mostly sitting on my hands as I find the chart difficult to read. Would love some feedback from Hoop, Dumbass, Peat and AA if you fellas feel inclined.

Phaedrus, are you back from your Holiday in the sun?
Id love to see your thoughts beyond the MSI.

[Footsie]

Looks like we have a new trading range. 4250 to 4600. Nothing to say until either of those is broken decisively.

4500 to 5000 was the band from Sept 09 to May 10. So lets see how long this range lasts. I thought up until today we have a good chance of busting above 4600. Alas no.

To get us below 4250 i'd suggest we need an "event" or -ve US GDP.

[STRAT]

Looks like we have a new trading range. 4250 to 4600. Nothing to say until either of those is broken decisively.

4500 to 5000 was the band from Sept 09 to May 10. So lets see how long this range lasts. I thought up until today we have a good chance of busting above 4600. Alas no.

To get us below 4250 i'd suggest we need an "event" or -ve US GDP.Hi Footsie. That was my take on it more or less. Cant be bothered with it all right now. Too much time in for bits and bobs. Have you been working it over the last 3 months or so?

[Footsie]

I made some money index trading late april. was short at 5,000 and closed out on the "flash crash" day 7 May.
but since then its way too hard. very choppy. no trend.

Sticking with all my stocks at present.

very difficult market to make money unless you are a day trader.

[trackers]

Hey guys,

Does the below look like a double top to you? I'm a bit confused as to whether the price action between the peaks qualifies it... If it is, whats the target?

http://iforce.co.nz/i/b4p4dumz.jpg

[Phaedrus]

What disqualifies this as a "Double Top" is not the price action between the peaks, but the price action preceding them. Prices should be trending up on their way to the first summit. The price trend should not be a retrace in an overall downtrend, as is the case here. Apart from that, a double top is not formed until prices fall below the low point between the peaks.

[trackers]

aha! Thanks Phaedrus that makes sense.. Welcome back too, hope you enjoyed your holiday :D

[peat]

what about the double top that IS in your chart?
Or that failed double bottom ?

[winner69]

These guys are onto it .... ASX 5000 by Xmas

http://www.theage.com.au/business/cashed-up-to-the-tune-of-100-billion--and-ready-to-spend-20100828-13wqv.html

I remember saying that before last Xmas but never mind

Anyway don't let a good story getint he way ... thats about 15% gain

But wait until October .... remember the old adage sell in May come back in October (for the US markets anyway but as they follow each other prob applies here as well}

[Lizard]

But wait until October ....

I agree. Am planning to get the last of the cash in by October. I think agm season has more potential upside than downside at this point - particularly with sound divi stocks. Once forecasters get confidence to build in even single digit growth, the money will start to come back.

[winner69]

Good day yesterday .... methinks a good day again today

Maybe October has come early .... roll on 5000 plus

[trackers]

Good day yesterday .... methinks a good day again today

Maybe October has come early .... roll on 5000 plus

It was very interesting to see the ASX not take its lead from the DOW yesterday for a change. Given that it was up 2% yesterday while the DOW only just slipped into the green would suggest that it won't do quite as well as the DOW did last night. But we will see.

There's been so many bull traps this year I'm skeptical that this rally will have much legs

[airedale]

I'm with you on that one,Trackers.Looking back over the last 6 months we have gone from the Dow at 11,000 in May to 10,269 today. And it the beginning of every month there has been a very positive day.
10th/5 ...+3.9%
2/6........+2.25%
7/7........+2.82%
2/8.......+1.99%
1/9.......+2.54% I know that these are Dow figures but we usually follow them. So instead of my usual optimistic outlook,today I am cautious.

[h2so4]

Maybe October has come early ....

Throw a bit of climate change in the mix.:)

[Footsie]

update from Mr P pls

[STRAT]

update from Mr P pls
Buy with caution I reckon it will be

Grey or light green :confused:

Mind you that toppy looking candle yesterday sitting up there all on its lonesome does look a bit ominous even if it does take us through the trend line.

[Phaedrus]

Here you are Footsie. No surprises here eh?

In spite of the MSI being green, conservative longterm indicators are still negative. This is perhaps to be expected as AllOrds is still in a downtrend.

I have added the simplest crudest TA indicator of them all - the old 200 day Moving Average. For such a blunt instrument, it really makes a surprisingly good fist of monitoring the "big" trends. Simplistic as it is, its performance knocks the socks off "buy and hold".

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds93.gif

[corporateraider]

Thanks Phaedrus
I always find these updates helpful.

[Footsie]

thanks, yes if the momentum continues good chance of breaking the 200 day m/a. also need to get above the June and August 4600 levels.

[airedale]

" if the momentum continues" .....yes that is the question ? Another columnist I read today said that Friday's rise on the Dow was on light volume. That indicates a lack of commitment from the professionals. Perhaps we will get there with an end of year rally.

[STRAT]

Dont you just love the way trend, resistance and support lines clarify a picture :lol:

[Jay]

And I thought I could not draw
My 3 year old's pictures look clearer than that! :-)

[winner69]

Belg ... don't volumes always fall thru summer .... wonder if this years summer volumes are higher than last summer

[winner69]

Belg - interesting

S&P500 volumes for Aug and Sept this year are 73% less than last year (daily avergaes per yahoo)


What does this mean?

Mom and Pops going broke and no cash left to invest in the markets any more ... good one .... thats mean irrational behaviour stops

The markets will reach the bottom when nobody is interested in investing in them .... then sensible valuations will prevail ... like PEs less than 10 ..... sound like we are still in a secular bear market that is slowly unfolding .... ending when?

[STRAT]

. thats mean irrational behaviour stops

Hi Winner
I like that kind of behaviour.

Good for trading. Better highs and easier to not be the last one out.

A case in point is the BKP thread on Hot Copper.

[Hoop]

Dont you just love the way trend, resistance and support lines clarify a picture :lol:

Looks crystal clear to me;);););)

In hindsight..If I bought/sold the aord index on your charted trend breaks chart I would've must a sh1t load of money:D:D:D...but I didn't:p:p

[trackers]

Hiya P, any chance of an update? :) XAO is still sitting a bit under SMA200 and some resistance lines (from my point of view anyway).

[Phaedrus]

This mornings strong rise takes the Index above the SMA200.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds914.gif

[trackers]

Thanks P, looking good :)

[STRAT]

Hi Phaedrus.

Regarding the stochastic and momentum on the chart above. Any smoothing? simple, expo or weighted?

[winner69]

All ords over 5000 by Xmas ..... or well before methinks

[Phaedrus]

Momentum - no smoothing.

Stochastic - this uses the standard default %K Slowing value (SMA3)

Whenever I use smoothing, I post the time period, then a comma, then the smoothing value used. This is almost invariably a Simple moving average.

[STRAT]

Thanks Phaedrus

[tricha]

All ords over 5000 by Xmas ..... or well before methinks

Today should go a long way to that 5000, might even be a day to dump gold stocks, which I might add is going no where in OZ $ and back into more conventional stocks.

Market Data (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/overview/default.stm)
Last Updated at 20:13 GMT
Market indexCurrent valueTrendVariation% variationDow Jones (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/stockmarket/2/default.stm)10755.02Up147.171.39%Nasdaq (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/stockmarket/12122/default.stm)2354.79Up39.181.69%FTSE 100 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/stockmarket/3/default.stm)5602.54Up94.091.71%Dax (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/stockmarket/18/default.stm)6294.58Up84.821.37%Cac 40 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/stockmarket/1/default.stm)3788.01Up65.991.77%BBC Global 30 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/stockmarket/29954/default.stm)5365.30Up81.571.54%

[newbe]

Argh what happened today? Was looking good for a while.

[Shaneoz]

Phaedrus,

I remember a while ago you spoke about the dow/s&p leading the asx200/xjo. I had a look but Im not sure which thread it was attached to but how does it rate if the xjo leads the dow into a pullback? Are they less severe or do we end up playing follow the leader once the dow moves down?

Not suggesting anything just looking at a few different angles of view.

You know, something to with a cat and a dose of curiosity... lol

[tricha]

Argh what happened today? Was looking good for a while.

It kinda defies logic, :confused:
Australia Increases Commodity Export Sales Outlook to Record $203 Billion

By Wendy Pugh - Sep 21, 2010 4:06 PM GMT+1200
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&iid=i4NNtY3iC_0E
Australia , the world’s largest shipper of coal, iron ore and wool, raised its forecast for commodity exports this fiscal year to a record amid rising prices and increasing demand. Photographer: Ian Waldie/Bloomberg



Australia, the world’s largest shipper of coal, iron ore and wool, raised its forecast for commodity exports this fiscal year to a record amid increasing demand and climbing prices.
Sales may be A$214.9 billion ($203.4 billion) in the year ending June 30, 2011, the Canberra-based Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics-Bureau of Rural Sciences said today in an e-mailed statement. That compares with its June estimate of A$202.5 billion and a revised A$170.6 billion for the previous year.
The Reserve Bank of Australia may resume raising interest rates as the biggest mining boom in more than a century stokes the economy next year, bank Governor Glenn Stevens (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Glenn%20Stevens&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja) signaled yesterday. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, and Rio Tinto Group are among producers boosting output of commodities such as iron ore as demand in China boosts sales.
“The minerals sector has been very strong, and although there is a bit of near-term softness in some parts in the next quarter perhaps, we think it will continue to strengthen through the early part of 2011,” Rob Brooker, National Australia Bank Ltd. head of Australian economics & commodities, said by phone in Melbourne today.
Gold, Nickel
Earnings from energy and mineral exports are forecast at A$179.9 billion, an increase of 30 percent from the previous year, according to the bureau. Increases in shipments and higher prices for iron ore and coal were the main reasons for the rise, with a “strong performance” also expected for gold, alumina and nickel, it said.
“Continued strong growth in emerging economies, especially China and India, is expected to drive commodity demand and underpin prices,” bureau analysts Alan Copeland and Farah Beaini wrote in the report.
Australia’s Labor Government, led by Julia Gillard, has pledged to introduce a 30 percent tax on coal and iron ore mining profits as it seeks to widen the national benefit from the resources boom.
Economic growth is forecast by the Reserve Bank to strengthen in 2011 as the mining investment boom intensifies.
“Prospects in the resources sector were especially positive, and the increase in investment in this sector would have significant flow-on effects to the broader economy,” the reserve bank said in minutes released in Sydney today.
Domestic Incomes
The forecast export performance this year and gains in the terms of trade would flow through to domestic incomes and may “eventually” lead to some inflationary pressure, National Australia Bank’s Brooker said.
‘It will add to pressure for an earlier move on interest rates but that will also depend on what happens in some of the struggling sectors of the domestic economy,” he said.
The value of farm exports is forecast to rise by 10 percent to A$31.4 billion this fiscal year led by increased crop production in eastern Australia following rainfall and favorable prices for commodities including wheat, barley, cotton, beef, sheepmeat and dairy products, according to the bureau.
Agrium Inc. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=AGU:CN), based in Calgary, last month bid A$1.2 billion for AWB Ltd., Australia’s largest wheat exporter, as international companies show increased interest in the nation’s agricultural assets.
To contact the reporter on this story: Wendy Pugh (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Wendy%20Pugh&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja) in Melbourne wpugh@bloomberg.net (wpugh@bloomberg.net)

[macduffy]

The SMH puts yesterday's lacklustre market down to "profit-taking" - which is the market/brokers' code for "don't know".

http://www.smh.com.au/business/wall-st-lead-no-corrective-to-profittakers-20100921-15lhu.html

[COLIN]

[QUOTE=macduffy;320221]The SMH puts yesterday's lacklustre market down to "profit-taking" - which is the market/brokers' code for "don't know".

QUOTE]

Seems to have been largely a combination of:
-profit-taking
-uncertainty about FOMC announcement later in day in US
-stronger perception about RBA interest rate hikes
- drop in Chinese iron ore imports, from July to August
- ABARE forecast of "decline in rate of increase" of Chinese imports over next year or so

[Phaedrus]

Hi Shane, the charts I think you are referring to are all on page 5 of this thread. Here is another comparison of the AllOrds vs SP500, utilising the Market Strength Indicator. This allows a direct detrended comparison of the 2 indices. Here are my conclusions - yours may be different!

(1) The 2 indices are very closely linked.
(2) Sometimes the AllOrds leads, sometimes the SP500 leads.
(3) There is no way of predicting which will lead, ahead of time.
(4) Because of the tight correlation, it generally pays to act on the leading index, regardless of which it is.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP500AllOrds922.gif

[Shaneoz]

Hi Phaedrus,

I like the look of that chart, it is very clear that they are joined at the hip. What one does the other isnt far behind.

Also, in regards to the other who are wondering what has been happening the last few days, its that time of month again. Options expire tomorrow and I think the futures are on again as well. The other thing that I see is that there is a narrowing of price volatility as the big boys get out of positions. Joe Dia Napoli said that it is common to see this gyration of price as the big movers and shakers take profits and pass shares to weaker players.

Now Im not saying its going to hell in a handbasket but the big players do have to declare profits and that means exiting positions. A minor gryation I suspect.

Anyway just my 2c.

[peat]

The SMH puts yesterday's lacklustre market down to "profit-taking" - which is the market/brokers' code for "don't know".

http://www.smh.com.au/business/wall-st-lead-no-corrective-to-profittakers-20100921-15lhu.html

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/china-japan-currency-forex-trade-gold-treasuries-pd20100921-9H3V5?OpenDocument&src=kgb

last couple of paragraphs perhaps an explanation

[STRAT]

What a great month we have had eh?
I could make a living playing this game if I could have 3 months like this one per year lol.

Three cheers for September 2010

[Phaedrus]

I wouldn't count on that, KW!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds1.gif

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrdsG.gif

[Phaedrus]

History shows the best time for share market returns is between Nov and AprilAh, but whose history? Has this bold statement ever been tested against Australian data?


It doesnt ALWAYS happen - just more often than not - enough at least for people to write books about it. Based on the Stock Traders Almanac by Yale Hirsh "best six months" strategy. Not all books are worth reading, KW! In any case, something that might work in Northern hemisphere markets could be totally inapplicable down here.


But don't knock my theory - I was planning on organising my holidays around it, since the "out of market" period so very conveniently coincides with a Melbourne winter I have to knock your theory KW. Take a look at the facts. Over the last 20 years, the "best 6 months" holding strategy has NOT been Nov - April. In the Australian market, March - August has been the best 6 month holding period - but even that clearly underperforms simply buying and holding! The strategy simply doesn't work. The chart below shows the points gained from all 6 month holding periods over the last 20 years. The usual Halloween "Sell in May and go away" (buying back in November) conventional wisdom is plotted in blue.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrdsMayNov.gif

Never let it be said that I am incapable of constructive criticism, KW. Having debunked Hirsh's writings as being wildly inaccurate and totally inapplicable here, I feel obliged to offer you some alternative means of scheduling your holidays. If you are looking for a cyclic buying system based on being out of the market for the worst performing months, maximum returns are generated by being in the market from March to December and out for January and February, as plotted at the top of the chart (dotted grey line). Unfortunately for your holiday plans, far from conveniently coinciding with the Melbourne winter, the best "out of market" period inconveniently coincides with the height of Melbourne Summer!

[trackers]

Hey Phaedrus, any chance of an updated MSI? The indicators on my XAO chart (ok, your indicators :D ) are starting to look a wee bit suspect

[Phaedrus]

Here you are Trackers :-

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds1124.gif

Still positive, but obviously falling. I'm not overly worried...... yet.

[trackers]

Thanks P :) Just looking at that, my return from Jul-present this year was about the same as my return for all of 2009 - Not sure if that means I'm improving, or whether I just dropped the ball big time in 2009!!

[drillfix]

Here are a couple of XAO variations with daily and weekly stuck side by side.

Hope you got wide screen monitors :P

XAO candle view
http://i52.tinypic.com/2hgac6b.png

XAO line view
http://i52.tinypic.com/2qta15l.png

XAO candle/line mix
http://i56.tinypic.com/2ld98rd.png

Some with support/resistance marks on the chart, some with oblique hot zones.

Of course the line is only a simplistic up down movement of green and red unlike Mr. P's delicate colour mix or algo-mix.

Although strong things looking a bit toppy and markets starting to sound like they need to justify a breather as seen from the lead from US starting off with Ciscos report.

Hopefully a few healthy steps back to rampage past 5000+ onwards, but as always, time will tell hey :)

edit:
ps: think the weekly needs to sort out its standing amongst the EMA clutter just below on the weekly charts, meaning one more cross to go and we could be well on our way upwards.

[trackers]

Thanks Drilly, really interesting :) You must be pretty switched on to use such small periods for RSI etc... Do you find Williams %R more successful than Stoch?

Initially, I found stoch makes more money over a long period of time but Williams %R has a better profit:loss ratio, but that was just a backtest against a small watchlist

[drillfix]

Hey Trackers,

Mate, at times I find myself using combinations of parameters. As you probably know, some indexes or stocks seem behave closer to adjusted parameters so these charts in of the XAO are only a general standard setting.

What interests me is the weekly XAO and the 90ema about to cross the 200ema to potentially open up the gate of ema's so to speak, which is a great outlook.

Having said that, seems a breather would also prove to be healthy for the XAO, meaning if a pullback to test the 30ema or even the lower bollingerband and bounce from there to enable us to have a stronger "next leg up" type of thing.

Who knows, the market does what the market does. :P

[drillfix]

Well here is another mix of Daily and Weekly chart of the XAO

http://i53.tinypic.com/2uztr4p.png



As you can see we are touching resistance and by the looks of things we are going to successfully punch through the 5018 resistance line.

While posting this we seem to have a positive lead from the US but a little flat in EU and London.

Guess its going to be do or die time soon. Guess we will have our answer by next week anyway or maybe sooner.

Well time to crash out now folks,

Cya tomorrow :)

[Phaedrus]

The All Ords has performed like a dog over the past year compared to the S&P500, which has double the gain of the All Ords.Superficially, that's certainly how it appears to be, KW, but look a little deeper and you will see that in fact the reverse is true. The chart below compares the percentage returns of the SP500 and the AllOrds since the low of 2009. Meaningful comparisons can be made only if they are expressed in the same currency.

I appear to be making a fortune on US markets, but when my US$ gains are converted into real money like Aus$, the ugly truth is revealed. Just like Gold, my USA profits are measured in a weak and falling currency. Correct for that and a very different picture emerges.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Index217.gif

[drillfix]

You can run, but you cant hide, so thought it is time we start bringing this thread back in to action again as the amount of red appearing on watch lists or stocks on the ASX are becoming very apparent.

Question many would be thinking right now would be: Egypt, Middle East, and where ever change feels needed.

But the XAO looks like it could do with a breather and I feel its quite healthy for the markets, as well as many stocks.

This could be a great time to cleanse, or rebirth a new portfolio or sector perhaps?

So then, what do you reckon folks?

After close, I will post another chart as like the other with an update with EOD data.

Would be also interested to see how the Phaedrus coloured market health indicator is looking on his charts too.

[drillfix]

Well folks,

As mentioned, here is another one of my dual charts (daily and weekly) showing what I feel will be anticipated moves in the XAO. (ASX All Ords)

Here is the chart: http://i56.tinypic.com/10hn0b5.png

Expected pull back levels written on the chart, and are approximations only due to the current global sentiment.

ps:

I feel if no bounce eventuates and support becomes broken and then 80% cash out is my only option (for me).

[lissica]

Nice chart Phaedrus.

I imagine Gold in AUD$ looks similar. Guess you could short the US$ whilst buying the SP500.

[drillfix]

Hi folks,

Important day and of course end to a turbulent week.

Here is yesterdays close of the ASX or XAO which shows us sitting right on support.


XAO daily and weekly chart with S+R >>>> http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/5781/38xao24feb2011dw.png


I think today may tell a bit of a story, but I am hoping for a bounce or hopefully a flat session so Monday can tell the rest of the story but we may have our answer by the end of day.

Both daily and weekly are on support levels, and I am sorry about the size of the chart image, I hope you all have 24" screens :P

Was going to post other charts of the Dow, S+P500, COMP, DAX and FTSE to show the similar pattern yet some showing partial alternative views of potential.

Maybe will post them here after the day kiicks off.

Just keep in mind where we are or potentially might be by the end of the day.

[STRAT]

Hi Drilly.
Friday turned out alright eh? with a nice piercing line patten on the short term candle chart.
Last night overseas was alright too Im pleased to see.

I reckon the business world will soon get used to and accepting of the turmoil in Africa and then back to business as usual.

Im a pretty simple fella but this is how it looks to me.

[gazprom1]

Is the asx delayed or somethign going on with reporting of trades?? NW seems frozen as do other stocks?

Thanks
Gazprom

[fihr]

The ASX has gone into an 'enquire' phase - so far I can't find any indication as to why. All brokers are affected.

[gazprom1]

Yeah, just called DB. Whole thing is not operational at the moment. Did not have any details about when it may start back up again.

Thanks Fihr.

Gazprom

[STRAT]

Thanks fellas. Thought I was goin nuts.
Ive been slagging off Slingshot and DB for the last half an hour lol

To myself of course

[drillfix]

Yeah folks, there is something up thats for sure.


I was wondering what was going on there and its still happening, I move orders and they dont update (change) plus I cant see if got them or not, so dont know whats up here.

Fihr, Where do you get your info from to advise that all brokers are affected?


Fihr, cancel that request mate, cheers:

http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/sfe_system_status.htm


ASX Trade Production
Status : Paused
ASX Trade is currently experiencing technical difficulties regarding trade dissemination on Partition 3 Securities

Update 2:

ASX is continuing to investigate the technical issue with trade dissemination on Partition 3 and is working towards re-opening the market today. It is unlikely that this will occur prior to normal market close of 16:00.

Further updates will be provided at 10 min intervals.


Also:

Austraclear System Test
Status : Paused
SFE Austraclear Test System is currently unavailable due to scheduled maintenance. If you have any further queries, please contact the SFE Austraclear Service Desk on 1300 362 257.

[skeet]

"ASX is continuing to investigate the technical issue with trade dissemination on Partition 3 and is working towards re-opening the market today. It is unlikely that this will occur prior to normal market close of 16:00"

[drillfix]

Is this where the BIG GUYS pulls the bag over everybody's head and now we find that our trading accounts are 40% down and all orders are off the table except they Mr. Big is 1st in the cue for Buy or sells in a particular sequence? :P

[gazprom1]

Hey Drilly,

Are you good fella?? Been ****e over here in Canterbury - christchurch is a disaster zone. It is a very somber time here but we have been fortunate only to lose property not lives.

Hope you're doing well. I have just taken a chunk of ARV at 4.9. It is unloved at the moment.

Gaz

[drillfix]

"ASX is continuing to investigate the technical issue with trade dissemination on Partition 3 and is working towards re-opening the market today. It is unlikely that this will occur prior to normal market close of 16:00"


Whats gonna happen here Skeet, does this mean all existing orders will Purge and its getting left a little late at the end of the day to plan some type of strategy dont ya think?

As in, its like the Magic Curtain will lift up and then Here are the Prices, for good or bad or whatever they may seem.

[drillfix]

Hey Drilly,

Are you good fella?? Been ****e over here in Canterbury - christchurch is a disaster zone. It is a very somber time here but we have been fortunate only to lose property not lives.

Hope you're doing well. I have just taken a chunk of ARV at 4.9. It is unloved at the moment.

Gaz


Hi Gaz,

Mate, I am pleased that you and family are ok there and yes, a very sombre time indeed.

Losing anything is not good, but 1st and foremost, it is great to hear your alright along with any other ST posters whom also have endured.

Trading is a little bit scattered atm, have a few things on the go, but do not like these data outages as one can get left feeling lost at times.

Will have to catch up via email one of these days Gaz, but good to see your ok and trading away and doing well in that department.

Cheers.

[gazprom1]

Hi Gaz,

Mate, I am pleased that you and family are ok there and yes, a very sombre time indeed.

Losing anything is not good, but 1st and foremost, it is great to hear your alright along with any other ST posters whom also have endured.

Trading is a little bit scattered atm, have a few things on the go, but do not like these data outages as one can get left feeling lost at times.

Will have to catch up via email one of these days Gaz, but good to see your ok and trading away and doing well in that department.

Cheers.

Will PM you in the coming days. Pain in the backside when we have outages like this on the ASX. I have no live trades ATM so not worried but would like it up and running asap. Had a great January but looks likely will be slightly down for Feb but no dramas. Missed NWE by a whisker on Friday and I am in ARV instead. concerned about BUR cap raising details as am too long BUROA....got to be in to win though.

Take care,
Gaz

[drillfix]

ASX CLOSED 3PM 28TH FEBRUARY 2011


Looks like somebody needs their sysadmin aSS kicked.



Hi Drilly.
Friday turned out alright eh? with a nice piercing line patten on the short term candle chart.
Last night overseas was alright too Im pleased to see.

I reckon the business world will soon get used to and accepting of the turmoil in Africa and then back to business as usual.

Im a pretty simple fella but this is how it looks to me.


Hey Strat, I hope your right about that, back to normal sure would suit me, as it would many I guess.

Here is last Fridays Chart which I will post another one in an hour or so once my PRT EOD data comes in.

http://i55.tinypic.com/53nr5j.jpg

I am getting the feeling that it wants to test the lower Bolling Band and oblique support line at 4845 which is also where the 90 day EMA is also positioned.

Perhaps a full bounce from there until news, global stability settles in perhaps just a little bit more, just maybe, if possible?

[macduffy]

An interesting perspective here on the state of the Aussie market.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=51529079-FAD1-54DC-35E389C16CB3F49F

[drillfix]

Interactive Brokers Bulletin Board

To ASX traders:
Mon Feb 28 18:19:08 2011 EST

As part of the resolution to the ASX trade dissemination issue experienced on 28 February 2011 the ASX has disabled all Tailor Made Combinations until further notice.

Further details about this trade issue can be accessed through the asxonline.com web-site.

1 Go to - http://www.asxonline.com/Participants/Welcome
2 Click the Library icon at the top of the page.
3 Click on 'Communications' and then on 'ASX Trade Communications'.
4 Click on 'ASX Trade Circulars' to access these Circulars



ps:

Macduff,

So in brief, the article in that link basically says that the regardless of what values are seen in stocks or how much a stock rises or falls is in effect trival while the market is driven to suit its current need or fullfillment until such a time whereby the reality will unfold that there is no value or concern for such value due to such current propped up economy (false economy) which is destined to fall anyway.

Is that the long of the short of it? :P

[macduffy]

ps:

Macduff,

So in brief, the article in that link basically says that the regardless of what values are seen in stocks or how much a stock rises or falls is in effect trival while the market is driven to suit its current need or fullfillment until such a time whereby the reality will unfold that there is no value or concern for such value due to such current propped up economy (false economy) which is destined to fall anyway.

Is that the long of the short of it? :P

Well, I wouldn't put it quite like that!

It's just another view, thought-provoking IMO and we can each take what we wish from it, or nothing!

Personally, I think it's worth taking note of his views on the relationship between shareprices and consensus price targets, particularly in regard to the Aussie banks where he has an - admittedly fairly short - track record.

[drillfix]

Personally, I think it's worth taking note of his views on the relationship between shareprices and consensus price targets, particularly in regard to the Aussie banks where he has an - admittedly fairly short - track record.


Yes indeed and I agree MacDuffy, and may I say 'well said' too.

[STRAT]

Hi Drillfix.
Just wanted to take a moment to thank you for very useful posts.
The info regarding the state of the ASX the other day. That handy little copper n gold thingie now at the bottom RH corner of mt screen etc etc.

Much appreciated bud.

[drillfix]

Hi Drillfix.
Just wanted to take a moment to thank you for very useful posts.
The info regarding the state of the ASX the other day. That handy little copper n gold thingie now at the bottom RH corner of mt screen etc etc.

Much appreciated bud.

Hi Strat,

For a moment there I was wondering which chart you were on about with copper and gold...lol

Worked it out, and you mean the FireFox pluggin I mentioned last week or so after a post by Shasta I think.

Here are the preferences for others to view what your talking about: http://i52.tinypic.com/bgpxja.png

As we can see, you can also add Copper, Nickel, Silver, Platinum, and much more, Choose your currency, get alerts, and chrts too.
I only have it set to gold as proxy, but may add copper and silver as well, but that starts to take up realestate on my bottom browser bar :P

Quite a handy tool along with another little program pluggin for Firefox called FOX CLOCKS which allows you to set multiple time zones and keep the tiny, or bigger with many time formats. This was handy when trading futures and other forex currencies, but truth be known, if you dance all these hours, it takes its toll on you and can completely wear you out, but all these addons I classify as Essentials.


Back to ASX.

Well, mate I dont know what to think, the Oz market is getting leads but for whatever reason, just simply does not wish to follow the carrot so to speak. I am finding myself getting jumpy and also changing my mind and I am now thinking about just sitting on the side lines until there is complete direction as to me, "this could go any way", IMO.

Take a look at the daily and the weekly in the following chart (like the others but updated from todays action, or lack of it).

XAO Daily and Weekly charts >>> http://i54.tinypic.com/2iu61i.png

What are your thoughts on the above chart?

Seems to me there is complete lack of conviction here, and if it doesn't get a move on soon, it will mean, its setting up for a fall.

Notice the daily where by appox the 5022 resistance line got tested 7 days out of 9 consecutive days and failed each time.

Also today on the daily we tested and bounced down off the 13 EMA and then fell below the 30 EMA, and it looks like we are about to test the bottom of the Bollinger Bans which may also break through diagonal support to then test the 90 EMA ( I hope not)

And if that happens, we then have the 13 ema crossing the 30 ema.
Adding to this, the OBV is weakening along with flattening RSI below 50.
So the daily current view to me is becoming more negative IMO.

No doubt I will have missed something, but a from a brief overview, I have enough there to cause some concern.

Lets hope there is more world carnage, rebellion or whatever else there seems to be flowing as this appears to be helping the pressure towards the downside.

As always, just thoughts and concerns on a day day, week to week basis.

[drillfix]

Another chart for yesterdays action which could show some potential bounce area's if we have not touched them already.

XAO Daily and Weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/mjtxiii69iwmcl8ic07u_XAO-daily-and-weekly.png
(also using another free image upload service which seems fast and allows multiple uploads at the sametime)


Weekly Chart (on the right)

90 day EMA about to crossover the 200 day EMA which resides at the bottom of the bolly bands atm.
13 day EMA touched by the price line which is currently show red. Could this be a bounce from here?
Current diagonal support heat zone tested and appears broken or still partially in range.
RSI, OBV easing off and MACD histogram at near centre line and signal appears to touch to cross maybe downward.
Williams %R heading downward, although this could easily reverse depending on market direction.

Daily Chart (on the left)

Yesterdays candle has touched the bottom of the Bollinger Band and near tested a intermediate support line.
We may get a slight fall and test of the intermediate line again though at worst even a test of the diagonal support heat line (4867'ish).
Question is will we get a bounce here maybe?
Like the weekly, OBV, RSI are declining, MACD histogram is negative and flat, a shorter fall or up day will see some nice divergence hopefully.
W%R shows the market back through the oversold line at -86.054, no doubt this can easily change with market sentiment and direction.

Perhaps next week the XAO will get its legs back and show some thrust as the political world slowly chills out.

At the time of posting this the Dow is up 47+, NASDAQ 22+ and S&P500 6.4+ points all in the green.

So, will our market take the a lead or are we still waiting for other matters to come out through the washing machine? Or can some sentiment start to light up the market before the weekend? Who knows hey, one day and week at a time.

Anyway folks, its late again so time to sleep, catch ya in the morning so have a nice breakfast and have a great trading day tomorrow. :)

[JBmurc]

Will PM you in the coming days. Pain in the backside when we have outages like this on the ASX. I have no live trades ATM so not worried but would like it up and running asap. Had a great January but looks likely will be slightly down for Feb but no dramas. Missed NWE by a whisker on Friday and I am in ARV instead. concerned about BUR cap raising details as am too long BUROA....got to be in to win though.

Take care,
Gaz

Yeah I averaged down my ARV holding paid a few more cents than you .hoping to see some good drill results before opts expire

[drillfix]

Following Weds XAO here is an expansion on that being yesterday (Thurs) but with a Zoomed in view of the area zones with more detail.

Thursday XAO daily and weekly Zoomed >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/p7ts8tm5p1mamroad0tt_XAO-Mar-3-2011.png

As mentioned previously same thing applies, yet I honestly hope we dont get a breakdown of the daily which is broken through or and still touching the support zone otherwise this will reflect the weekly accordingly which could be set for a breakdown, but yet it continues holding up as it has done for the past 6+ months.

Hopefully the weekly will test and bounce off the 13 day EMA as it had one back on Nov 22/2010 so here is hoping for a bounce there upwards and onwards.

Failing that, then yield future caution or attention on a daily basis accordingly.

But also tomorrow the XAO should have a strong lead from US if it chooses to take it as at the time of making this post the following applies to US markets:

* Dow +167.56

12,234.36
+1.39%
* Nasdaq +43.12

2,791.19
+1.57%
* S&P +17.15

1,325.59
+1.31%



Good night folks, cya all tomorrow.

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/aLLoRDS34.gif

[trackers]

Thanks P :) Amazing how much the ASX has underperformed US indices this year... Excluding exchange rate effects

[drillfix]

Cheers Phaedrus,

Although, your chart appears to be recently showing a double bottom, is that because of the Linerar scale?

[ratkin]

Whats the grey colour? Or maybe im colur blind

[drillfix]

Whats the grey colour? Or maybe im colur blind

I cant speak for Mr.P, but remembering one of his charts the grey was Weak but Rising or something.

No doubt, I will be corrected wrong :P

[drillfix]

I thught it was "caution"


Lets Vote on it and at the end of the day , the winner will get presented with a PDF of Mr. P's do's and dont's of TA masterclass :P lol

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds34b.gif

[drillfix]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds34b.gif

Phaedrus, what exactly do you mean 1pm?

ASX time says its just gone past 11am?

[Phaedrus]

1pm NZ time, Drillfix.

[drillfix]

1pm NZ time, Drillfix.


Sorry, I cant see the obvious sometimes..lol

[drillfix]

Well what a red, sell off, reddy gob smacked type of day today hey folks!


Here is a chart of the XAO from friday with some annotions drawn in the chart whereby a calculated bounce approximation is added.


XAO Daily and weekly chart: >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/hp9k49v2t5y0k9k4mhf.png


The weekly suggested we are tinkering on the oblique support line/zone/area

While the daily is showing a clear breech of oblique support line and a test for intermediate support below that which also connects with an alternative oblique support line.

It is this connection of support lines which I have made an approximated calll that the XAO should get a bounce from 4878 as shown in the Fuchsia coloured candle and box drawn on the daily chart. At worst, the XAO may test the 90EMA line at the bottom of the rectangle drawn.

This estimation cannot be only technical, it will also be sentiment driven along with what goes on globally and politically stability as well as the global technical's, commodities, oil, and whatever you have to affect one another.

Funny how the MACD signal line on the daily had looked set to turn positive along with Williams turning up as well as RSI and OBV also turning up.

Guess we cant really depend on a daily in times when American just cannot make its mind up whether or not is going to pull through, has or does not have the oil to cope, or confidence in its previous efforts. Seems to always on again, off again type of relationship with itself primarily as well as the rest of the world.

Just another week in rome, will it come good again this week, or are we in for a fall?

To me, if we breach the 90ema line at 4853.4 Line with no bounce to be seen, then I will throw in the towel and sit it out with cash on the sidelines.

Any hoo, have a nice day folks.

[drillfix]

Yeah, did I miss the end of the world or something?

Yes KW, you are late, the world ended at approx 10am on open, and now we are living in the after life posting on market afterlife :P

Actually KW, my post if seen in such a light is only meant to be a cautionary awareness check that most folks would already know.

[drillfix]

Not your post, the market performance today. What is going on at the moment for there to be such big drops? It's not about the oil - Saudi Arabia have said they will increase output if necessary, and the US is fully stockpiled and coming into summer.


If you ask me KW, its the big fat guy boys club that are sitting having tea debating about which way they want to paint the over all market chart.

Sometimes they believe its better if it goes up, some think it will better if it falls. Either way, they just dont care because they have most of the money and if they want more, all they need to do is choose which direction would better suit their interests, and then short it, or buy it accordingly on the dips.

Of course, maybe they dont want the money any more, but rather the hard commodities or precious metals. Enter a new conspiracy theory perhaps, so who knows.

If things start dropping too much and a new leg down begins then I think it would be best to switch to instruments that you can short.

Sorry I dont have the answer for you KW, though would like to hear others put forth suggestions accordingly though.

[STRAT]

Not your post, the market performance today. What is going on at the moment for there to be such big drops? It's not about the oil - Saudi Arabia have said they will increase output if necessary, and the US is fully stockpiled and coming into summer.Hi KW. I reckon its a reaction to the rise in the POO rather than the cause of the rise. Cant see the panic lasting but am ready to react if it does.

[drillfix]

Here is another chart of Mondays close EOD of the XAO

Daily and weekly combined: >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/85iwhw4uowwfr7fdvd67.png

Drew in a couple of rectangles areas point discusson.

Meaning, the Weekly MACD looks like is about to fall over with negative histogram and signal line cross which is negative.
The Weekly Williams %R heading south which is negative.
The Weekly Red falling indicator line has broken support which has now al turned red making that now resistance which is negative.
The Weekly Red falling indicator line is right on touching the 13day EMA which may bounce, or may not which it should then test the 30EMA
The Weekly RSI is just above 50 still which I see as still positive but heading south to breach 50.


The Daily charts all previous supports have now turned into Red resistance.
The Daily rectangle zone drawn indicates a potential bounce zone, and failing this will test the below 60day EMA
The Daily chart shows MACD, Williams%R potentially can turn around should a positive bounce be encountered.

What to make of this, who knows, just flow with the river and trade accordingly.

[drillfix]

So far so good today, meaning there seems to be a kinda flat balance between blue chip miners and banks doing their thing as well as a light sell off on some spec stocks.

Perhaps in preparation for a Bounce ??? Tomorrow say? C'mon people lets hear some calls, put on your XAO calling socks and yell it out where to next :P

Bounce tomorrow (Wed), then a Run on Wed, with a strong finish Friday is my guess.

Any takers other views contrary to this? Always love to hear others thoughts on the matter.

[trackers]

I agree Drilly, at a guess... I'm looking forward to that Williams %R in your graph turning upwards

[drillfix]

I agree Drilly, at a guess... I'm looking forward to that Williams %R in your graph turning upwards

Nice of you to sound off there Trackers, and Williams seems to react a slightly tad quicker than the MACD and other indicators so should this move upwards the rest will follow.

Just need to continually watch out for any obvious Divergence that may disagree creating suckers out of us.

[drillfix]

I agree Drilly, at a guess... I'm looking forward to that Williams %R in your graph turning upwards


You got it Trackers, and a bounce as confirmed shown on the chart @ 4,871


XAO daily Zoomed >>>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/8r1ha68500di4yy0sf.png


Looks like a mini double bottom ready for the next leg up to test 4,943 and if successful up to re-test the culprit 5,023 which is just so significant that we break past that and stretch it up to the top of the bollingerbands on the daily chart.

Your Williams%R is now turning up, although the weekly Williams is seen turning down, though that could change if tomorrow is a strong positive day then all indicators will swing back in direction or close to it.

As mentioned, here is your williams %R turning upwards, which may I add, can change/turn quite fast on a daily basis.

XAO daily and weekly >>>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/6jtr5ara8srge145ppb7.png


Fingers crossed for more positive leads from oversea's markets other relative indicators.

[drillfix]

Looks like a rally and a strong closing to the week coming starting tomorrow/today!

Good night folks time for sleep.

[Hoop]

It can be trivial but sometimes the extra big picture tells an interesting story...

The 30year weekly chart below show the tremors of stress within the All Ords index market.
1987 crash came suddenly without warning
2008 GFC the market began increasing vibrations before the peak, giving warning signs similar to a pressure cooker ready to blow up. The length of time and the severity of the market vibrations tells us that this GFC was very serious event indeed.

So..what now??... the vibration and after-shocks are lessening and the linear regression channel is going upwards ....very long term good news or is this the P wave before the big quake ????

For the shorter term present situation things have quietened down, though the All Ords has issues with its orange 5000 resistance line... its been a menace for over a year now.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/AllOrds08032011weekly.png

[drillfix]

So..what now??... the vibration and after-shocks are lessening and the linear regression channel is going upwards ....very long term good news or is this the P wave before the big quake ????

For the shorter term present situation things have quietened down, though the All Ords has issues with its orange 5000 resistance line... its been a menace for over a year now.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/AllOrds08032011weekly.png


Hoop, good post.

I guess there is no real way to know except to always beware the Black Swan, yet as you already know, there are many that look for the warnings and tell tale signs which are.

Key divergence on certain indicators, movement of VIX etc etc

Huge rally or migration into to defensive sectors whilst in a confident market.

I dont think there is an all on one solution for everybody to jump at the same time.

As in, I have given myself complete instructions that if the XAO breach certain levels, then I would react by going to a certain %cash, and act accordingly in the moment.

The market is going to do what the market is going to do, for the ups and downs, and agree about the XAO 5000 level hotspot, its problematic yet I feel it will be tested again as we seem to be making higher highs, and higher lows, although it will due for another test of the XAO 5000 and failing that we have double tops, perhaps that will be a trigger to jump, or get in. Make or break type of thing.

As always, time will tell.

[drillfix]

Hi again Hoop,

I forgot to say, even with the open today and the first hour as we are in atm.

Dont you just love at least how "these days" the ASX (XAO) seems to be taking on its own Personality. Previously it was like a trained Dog that barked or fetched the stick because whatever the DOW or S&P500 had done.

But now it seems to be trying to be its own master and puppet master.

No doubt we are down in the red -10 points because somebody chooses to sell of BHP or because that got sold off oversea's.

Funny behaviour for the past while though would you say?

[tricha]

Looks like a rally and a strong closing to the week coming starting tomorrow/today!

Good night folks time for sleep.

Maybe Aussies pay a bit more attention to reality, maybe they pay attention to the metal prices, maybe they are closely watching developements in China and maybe they remember the last oil spike and what it does to consumerism, I certainly do.;)

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-copper-30d.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#30days)

[drillfix]

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-copper-30d.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#30days)

Hi Tricha,

Plenty of maybe's there, and hey any chance on making that chart a little smaller as its just way to big :P

Nah, truth is, I agree with what you say Tricha, Aussie's do look at reality in much much more detail than our US counterparts as both me and you know the Aussie system has measures in place that also helped us move through such previous exploded bubbles.

Like Hoop says and posted with his chart with the earth quake effect, will we have tremors or wont we, and if so, potentially when, and what do we look for to potentially see them coming?

The very thing about any Black Swan though is, in order for it to be a Black Swan, we are not supposed to see it anyway so what is going to prepare us for what could be, or eventually might be?

To me, the markets are always going to rise and rall, rise and fall, and sometimes Rise Heavily and Fall Heavily.

All the world is a stage and the script is always in progress as it is being played out.

To me trade what you see and when in doubt or become proven wrong, then act accordingly.

[drillfix]

Its ok, its just a bounce off the Oblique/Intermediate support line at present.

EOD will of course be the best evaluation but what exactly is the short of the long of it. Metals are taking a breather?

[drillfix]

Well, plenty of more positive leads from OS futures, BUT, will our quirky ASX market decide to spit the dummy instead?

Dont know whats going on with the Who, when, where, why and what Syndrome so I guess I will just post a couple charts and let you work it out for yourself.

Some serious Breaching going on with both daily and weekly.

XAO daily & weekly >>>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/cjjafy3ccfjatsnvz4iv.png


You can see a Zoomed version of the Daily, and I think with any more sell off type moves breaching the support then the Technicals will be telling the story and I will take a cash position to at least 50% cash.

XAO ZOOMED View >>>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/9r27n1stwit3czi1jd41.png

To me it is apparent the support has been broken, but as with magnetism the price candle is drawn to the 90 day EMA like a magnet, which can also be considered normal behaviour too, to some degree, but caution required as markets unfold.

Now I am getting paranoid maybe, but another couple more falls and no doubt Mr. P's chart of colour will no doubt also tell you to get out should this keep falling as the last post was more of a neutral type colour I beleive.

Well, have a nice night folks or a wonderful morning.

[trackers]

Thanks for your charts and thoughts Drilly... I like to keep it simple so based on what you've posted there I'll start getting extremely nervous if 4800 doesn't hold.

That being said, US treading water overnight, oil down and gold up so should be an OK day

[tricha]

Thanks for your charts and thoughts Drilly... I like to keep it simple so based on what you've posted there I'll start getting extremely nervous if 4800 doesn't hold.

That being said, US treading water overnight, oil down and gold up so should be an OK day

Good day, I would not bet on it, Australia is minerals and metals got smashed last nite.

Live Spot Priceshttp://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgSPOT PRICE IS OPENPrice: US$/lb http://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgCopperMarch 09,13:59Bid/Ask4.2035-4.2086Change-0.1157-2.68%Low/High4.1736-4.3605http://www.kitcometals.com/images/arrow.jpgCharts (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/Copper.html)http://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgNickelMarch 09,13:58Bid/Ask12.0539-12.0721Change-0.3311-2.67%Low/High12.0267-12.5642http://www.kitcometals.com/images/arrow.jpgCharts (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/Nickel.html)http://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgAluminumMarch 09,13:58Bid/Ask1.1458-1.1487Change-0.0113-0.98%Low/High1.1345-1.1676http://www.kitcometals.com/images/arrow.jpgCharts (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/Aluminum.html)http://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgZincMarch 09,13:58Bid/Ask1.0279-1.0292Change-0.0408-3.82%Low/High1.0099-1.0914http://www.kitcometals.com/images/arrow.jpgCharts (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/Zinc.html)http://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgLeadMarch 09,13:58Bid/Ask1.1351-1.1381Change-0.0440-3.73%Low/High1.1316-1.1911

[trackers]

Hmm, yes didn't notice the falls in non-precious metals cheers Tricha. Looks like oil needs to fall further then I suppose ..

[drillfix]

Hmm, yes didn't notice the falls in non-precious metals cheers Tricha. Looks like oil needs to fall further then I suppose ..

No doubt oil is setting up to eventually all to do a Power SHORT on the CL futures with huge gains to be made being on the short side.


With regards to XAO and Australia, perhaps some Red is what XAO needs and considers to be a positive lead.

And yep, I too would be extremely nervous should 4800 breakdown, but as far as today goes a slight bounce perhaps or flat?



Good day, I would not bet on it, Australia is minerals and metals got smashed last nite.

Live Spot Priceshttp://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgSPOT PRICE IS OPENPrice: US$/lb http://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgCopperMarch 09,13:59Bid/Ask4.2035-4.2086Change-0.1157-2.68%Low/High4.1736-4.3605http://www.kitcometals.com/images/arrow.jpgCharts (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/Copper.html)http://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgNickelMarch 09,13:58Bid/Ask12.0539-12.0721Change-0.3311-2.67%Low/High12.0267-12.5642http://www.kitcometals.com/images/arrow.jpgCharts (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/Nickel.html)http://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgAluminumMarch 09,13:58Bid/Ask1.1458-1.1487Change-0.0113-0.98%Low/High1.1345-1.1676http://www.kitcometals.com/images/arrow.jpgCharts (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/Aluminum.html)http://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgZincMarch 09,13:58Bid/Ask1.0279-1.0292Change-0.0408-3.82%Low/High1.0099-1.0914http://www.kitcometals.com/images/arrow.jpgCharts (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/Zinc.html)http://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgLeadMarch 09,13:58Bid/Ask1.1351-1.1381Change-0.0440-3.73%Low/High1.1316-1.1911


Hi Tricha,

Hey please dont take this the wrong way but, You really need to learn how to Format a post.

As your last post is not very readable and to be honest is extremely hard work to read.

I'm sure you understand.

[drillfix]

KW, I am getting quite nervous here.

As in as I post this the All Ordinaries are 4,827.70 which is -35.5 in the red.

Somebody knows something about something, Banks are up, Metals are completely smashed as we know because BHP gets sold off, the market dives big time.

(for me) As mentioned in the Zoomed pic, if 4815 becomes breached then I am out because I am not into Ski Slope type down hill surfing, I am more of rock climber. Plus the ASX gives only limited positions for shorting and IB is not allowed (apparently) its clients to short ASX anything which is a complete pitty otherwise we would have increased our ability to make money way more easily in many cases.

Finger on the pulse here people, lets take off our rose coloured glasses as we take a reality check here IMO about what may or could unfold.

[tricha]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds34b.gif

Hmm, your picture isn't quite right Phaedrus, maybe u need to follow this picture more closely, as it is apparently a key indicator to where to next :confused:

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-copper-30d.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#30days)

[drillfix]

Phaedrus - have we gone yellow or red yet?

PS. Drillfix, I was taking the mickey, as I think you meant 4800 in your post not 3800 :-)


LOL, sorry KW, I just went back and edited that so cheers for the reminder.

I am migrating to cash now as we speak, little by little and if 4800 goes, I am out.

Funny though, watching some stocks rally today like nothing is wrong, but once people sober up, they will realise the market is turning, as it has been for the past couple of days, and enough to change Mr. P's colour index I bet (should 4800 not hold).

As I type we are at 4808, my eject button has been hit, and even if I have to buy back at a small premium, I dont care, I will but only until I get evidence that this shakeout or whatever you want to call it, is completely over. No evidence = down the rabbit hole we go.


add/edit:

I forgot to say, I am also charting the S&P200 in Real time so IMO should that also crack through 4700 then its Red Rover.

[trackers]

Phaedrus - have we gone yellow or red yet?

PS. Drillfix, I was taking the mickey, as I think you meant 4800 in your post not 3800 :-)

Keen to see this too :D

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds310.gif

[drillfix]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds310.gif

I had a very good feeling this might be the case.

Cheers for posting Mr. P

[bermuda]

Phaedrus,
A week ago you were saying get in,..... a week later you say get out. Such is a week in the life of a trader.

[tricha]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds310.gif

Looking in the rearview mirror as usual Phaedrus. :confused:

[trackers]

Thanks P, appreciate it :) Have sold about 80% of my holdings today, going to be very interesting to see whether that turns out to be the right move.

My main concern has been that the ASX has been so weak, and the US so strong... What happens when the US reverses?

[Phaedrus]

Tricha, this chart is right up to the minute.
It shows the current market strength as accurately and as simply as I can depict it.
It does not purport to predict the future. Never has.
How many times do I have to explain this point to you?
Are you thick?

[tricha]

Tricha, this chart is right up to the minute.
It shows the current market strength as accurately and as simply as I can depict it.
It does not purport to predict the future. Never has.
How many times do I have to explain this point to you?
Are you thick?

I'd be tick to take any notice of your rearview mirror Phaedrus.

I wonder where the red line will take us this time.

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-copper-5y.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#5years)

[tricha]

Marginal calls will be kicking in, along with stop losses, greed or fear ?

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/widget/chart.do?asxCode=XJO&type=INDEX (javascript:startRemote('/asx/widget/marketWatch.do?asxCode=XJO&popup=true','charting'))
indexvaluechangenumeric changeS&P/ASX200 4703.3http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -64.5ALL ORDS (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/widget/marketWatch.do?asxCode=XAO) 4796.5http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -66.7

[Huang Chung]

Thanks P, appreciate it :) Have sold about 80% of my holdings today, going to be very interesting to see whether that turns out to be the right move.

My main concern has been that the ASX has been so weak, and the US so strong... What happens when the US reverses?

We probably go up....

I can't find any logical reason for our drop over the past week or so.

[fihr]

Thanks for posting the chart, Phaedrus. Especially 'up to the minute'.

I've exited all my CFD positions (which a couple of days ago were looking pretty good but today turned red except for one). All my other positions - not CFD's - will trigger their own exit signals if this keeps up. Which is likely.

Half the time you see the technical action but find out the real reasons for it some time afterwards. But heard on the radio that a lot of money is being repatriated to the US given some positive economic news over there, plus of course we have the Libyan uncertainties. Still I think a lot of people have been waiting nervously for a decent sized correction for some time, whatever the reason. Who can tell at this stage if this will be it?

[Corporate]

Thanks for the chart Phaedrus. As I posted last week (or was it the one before) I exited all positions except for one (tsv.ax). This is only 5% of my portfolio so sitting comfortably.

[drillfix]

Wise move there Corporate and good timing.

I see this ASX thread is becoming popular back in fashion while the XAO is on the slip, so no doubt we can expect more powow happening here with index babble and perhaps some new age strategy planning perhaps? :P

Well, it appears today the XAO appears like it want to land on a close or finish close to 4800 and S&P200 close to 4700.

For those who are interested I will post some closing Index charts at EOD to early evening.

[denpal]

Surely there'll be a bounce off the 195EMA?