All Ords Index.

[ratkin]

That is true! Tough one for me.. Obviously everything says sell, but is it a blip or the start of a prolonged downtrend.. Not sure.

And true Aaron,I'll post an updated chart soon!

Surely if you follow your chart then it shouldnt be tough at all? Isnt that what they are for , to make the decision for you

[Biscuit]

.. Obviously everything says sell ....

Kinda seems like you know the answer but not acting on it?

[trackers]

Surely if you follow your chart then it shouldnt be tough at all? Isnt that what they are for , to make the decision for you

Its not tough to see what to do, its a tough one for me to have an opinion about the future direction of the market, if I wanted or needed one - But yes ultimately you're right, if you follow the charts you don't need to have an opinion

[trackers]

Safe to say this latest fall has been bread and butter for the MSI



http://iforce.co.nz/i/qxvjsoc2.3h3.png

[ratkin]

20 period CCI on a weekly chart has precluded my trading account from operating since 22nd May (no trades when below zero) Accomplishes much the same thing and is less messy.
Combining ten indicators that basically all do the same thing looks like overkill

[trackers]

20 period CCI on a weekly chart has precluded my trading account from operating since 22nd May (no trades when below zero) Accomplishes much the same thing and is less messy.
Combining ten indicators that basically all do the same thing looks like overkill

As an automatically applied formula attached to every chart its about as minimal effort as could possibly be. And yes its 10 indicators, with around 10 variable parameters each, so its the consensus view of around 100 calculations

[Joshuatree]

Safe to say this latest fall has been bread and butter for the MSI



http://iforce.co.nz/i/qxvjsoc2.3h3.png


Really appreciate you posting this trackers esp when the colour changes, thanks

[trackers]

http://iforce.co.nz/i/5ky2wexv.jyq.png

[NZSilver]

Yes KW, to be honest it's good to see! A lot of people have either been quoting buffet or talking up the rebound/long term/ignoring the volatility. At this point with many on edge any negative data from China/US economy is going to to have a lot more pressure downwards in the markets, compared with positive news which will have a small positive effect. Overall I believe this will result in more chance of continued downtrend/bear. Even though interest rates are low in still getting a 3.85% on my cash in an on call acc which is poised and ready for some bargain hunting and I can sit back with a nice cold beer each night and I have no worries at all - I wouldn't like to quote anyone out of context but I think I'm going to call that "well positioned"

[Bobcat.]

When the barmen, taxi drivers and run of the mill ma' n pa' retail investors are telling you how great the stockmarket is ('cause mainstream media has been pushing that wagon for so long)...then it's time to sell.

When the opposite is happening, it's probably time to buy (or close to it - wait for the death gasp and final dip).

The difficulty I'm finding gauging things at the moment is due to the price of commodities. In all other Equity bubbles I know of, commodities were priced high as well due to economic growth. There is a huge gap between the two at the moment.

http://www.mineweb.com/commodities/commodities-slump-to-16-year-low-as-china-slowdown-roils-markets/

I ponder how that gap's going to close without either

a) economic growth, accompanied by higher inflation and rising interest rates, or
b) a huge drop in Equity markets worldwide.

Can anyone identify a third possibility? If not, we are left to choose from these two scenarios as to which one is more likely.

If a) then we are witnessing a simple correction and Equity market's will soon continue their bull run (next week?)

If b) then...well, that's a scary thought...not only if you're long on most equities. Severe recession, depression and all that comes with it. We are entering the season (Sept/Oct) when major downturns have happened before (it would seem in 7 year cycles)...more than mere market jitters.

[ratkin]

Yup, the internet is awash with "keep calm and carry on" signs LOL
Have also noticed a change in tone from the numerous newsletters I subscribe to - switching from quick, buy the dip mentality to one of more caution - but still none are advising to sell, just to hold tight. Once they start saying sell sell sell, the bottom should on the horizon :-)

Are any of these newsletters any good?
Maybe we should have a topic on them . The only one i subscribe to is Colin Nicholson,s one. he puts a lot of work into it , and quite happy to pay 60 odd bucks a year.
He was offering a copy of his book to new subscribers, and forgot to add, austrlia only. He sent me a copy anyway and it cost him around 20 bucks postage. Top bloke

[h2so4]

A third possibility could be a fall in the $US

[Bobcat.]

Yes, this morning I went short on the USD, against both the NZD (good lift in global dairy prices last night) and the EUR which together with the Swiss Franc seems to be the currency that money is flying to now (it used to be the USD) I don't expect a major dumping of the USD until China can convince other members of the IMF to overide the American veto against them joining the exclusive SDR club (they try again next month) since that will spearhead the end to the USD as the world's reserve currency. The Chinese are hoping I think to add credibility to their cause by hording as much gold as they can so that if they need to declare the Yuan as gold-backed, they can do so.

Meanwhile, one of the tactics the Obama admin have employed is getting Iran to agree to continue trading its oil in USD-backed petrodollars. Yes, that nuclear deal is about a lot more than when Iran gets to make the bomb they want to use on Israel and anyone interferring with their Islamic goals - it's also about trying to avoid a very large monetary bomb hitting the Americans deep in their belly.

[Daytr]

A couple of big names going ex divi today on the ASX.
Something I got caught out being short the index.
In saying that going ex divi may see major players like BHP & WOW go lower.

[DarkHorse]

Good point re watching Canada.
I have no experience whatsoever with shorts or the likes of BEAR.ASX, so forgive me if this is a dumb question.
Theoretically I suppose a successful stock picker could consistenly gain individual stock reward without market risk, simply by always being long individual stocks with a counterbalancing short over the entire market. Given transaction costs and the mechanics of shorts I suppose it's not that simple, otherwise you wouldn't be cashed up KW?

[Daytr]

China announced acceleration of infrastructure projects overnight.
This should help the ailing Australian commodity stocks, particularly miners rather than energy stocks.

[DarkHorse]

I found this part of a SMH article today interesting:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/four-ways-sharemarket-investors-feel-better-this-week-20150909-gjio34.html

MINING COMPANY PRODUCTION CUTS AND BALANCE SHEET SURGERY
In 1999, BHP's chief executive Paul Anderson announced that the mining group was closing copper mines in the US and taking 200,000 tonnes a year of copper production out of a market that was awash with the metal.
The move was the trigger for a round of mine closures and mergers that put a floor under the copper price, keeping the most profitable producers in business for another half decade until China's expansion triggered a commodity price boom.
We are now seeing similar moves, as miners respond to commodity price weakness, lower profits, and lower share prices.
Glencore announced on Monday that it was attacking its debt load by suspending dividend payments, raising up to $US2.5 billion ($3.59 billion) with a share issue, selling assets and suspending 400,000 tonnes of unprofitable copper production in Africa, for example.
There's self interest in the group's copper production cut. It has squeezed short sellers, pushing the copper price and Glencore's share price up ahead of the pricing of the $US2.5 billion share issue.
It is an important development, however,and Santos's announcement on August 21 that it was examining all balance sheet repair options including asset sales was another canary in the mine. Heavy balance sheet repair work and mining production cuts are classic bottom of the commodity cycle events. The copper price posted its best rise in two and half years on Tuesday night.

[h2so4]

Good point re watching Canada.
I have no experience whatsoever with shorts or the likes of BEAR.ASX, so forgive me if this is a dumb question.
Theoretically I suppose a successful stock picker could consistenly gain individual stock reward without market risk, simply by always being long individual stocks with a counterbalancing short over the entire market. Given transaction costs and the mechanics of shorts I suppose it's not that simple, otherwise you wouldn't be cashed up KW?

That is the exact strategy I have in place. I have all three bears that KW mentioned and continue to pick over and go long or not so long on the shares I like.

[Daytr]

Its amasing that up until 10 years ago, copper averaged under & quite a bit under $1/Lb
Now its over 3 times that previous average price but in many cases its uneconomic.
Same could be said for gold, or oil.
However with the commodities themselves coming down in price it makes them cheaper to extract, particularly the fuel content.
The main factor that doesn't improve is grade.
Gold grades mined now are 1/4 of what they were 10 years ago.
Sort of explains the four fold price we see now from then.

[trackers]

update

http://iforce.co.nz/i/pxil5lzh.ubt.png

[trackers]

MSI triggered a buy on friday guys...First time in a while

http://iforce.co.nz/i/kk53f1p0.bfr.png

http://iforce.co.nz/i/kk53f1p0.bfr.png

[Hoop]

Thxs Trackers:)

[ratkin]

Thxs Trackers:)

Yes was firing off signals all over the place, however it does not seem to have flowed over into this week. Was expecting a decent day yesterday.
Seems to be more a case of the indicators responding to a leveling off rather than any surge upwards

[Baa_Baa]

So have we been suckered by a bear rally? (although if so, it was quite a lucrative run)
XAO rally hit its 200 day moving average and met strong resistance - and now has broken back below its 50 day MA as well. Trackers, how is your MSI looking at present?
Is it time to cut and run yet again?

7703

Sucker rally, maybe but "time to cut and run"? My trusty weekly chart said get out on Friday. Down again today, might pick up towards the close though.

[Snow Leopard]

Well I am having a weird day as even my WORST performing ASX holding is UP one tick.

But still time to go before the close.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Baa_Baa]

[snip] .. So did you get out on Friday Baa Baa?

I'm not in the ASX200 per se (index), of my two ASX listed shares, one is a train wreck and the other I've mentioned on the ASX board. Small beer while I wait out the 'correction'. As I've said elsewhere I'm not convinced that the trouble is over, despite a very encouraging October.

[Baa_Baa]

Me neither. [snip]

And with good reason it seems as today $XJO (ASX 200) money flow continued down, 200EMA breached (as you said) and a test of 5000 is looking likely.

I agree with you as well that the US markets look uncertain, with DOW having failed at the declining resistance trend line. Ref my update post on the DOW thread for those thoughts.

China has also again figured in the news, even with the Government support prop at 3000 (Shanghai), the markets have a nervousness about them following the weaker growth stats.

Anyway, this might seem a bit gloomy for the folks who have enjoyed watching the bear apparently retreat to it's cave, however for my intents and purposes it's still about capital preservation and there are growing reasons to be out, or short.

[trackers]

Easy come easy go

http://iforce.co.nz/i/45bvdti3.pis.png

[Hoop]

That last rally had the sucker behaviour look about it..Is it possible the AORDS could be in a new bear market cycle?

[Joshuatree]

Flirting with 5000 yet again:eek2:, Where in the world are you KW and Hoop; helpeth!!!:ohmy:

[Baa_Baa]

Flirting with 5000 yet again:eek2:, Where in the world are you KW and Hoop; helpeth!!!:ohmy:

Maybe they're amongst those who are apparently 'on strike', doing voluntary abstinence? Two more excellent contributors gone, hopefully only for the meantime.

[Joshuatree]

Sounds very vague and rumoury; anyone got some facts here? Will pm KW.

[Joshuatree]

Meanwhile the show must go on. XJO below 5000!!. Not good, its feeling like a Glacier is slowly sliding over rendering and wearing down:eek2:. Sorry not very positive at this moment in time. Thoughts?

[kiora]

Meanwhile the show must go on. XJO below 5000!!. Not good, its feeling like a Glacier is slowly sliding over rendering and wearing down:eek2:. Sorry not very positive at this moment in time. Thoughts?

Certainly looks like it's slip sliding away JT. Is NZX following ASX?

[winner69]

Hoop - here's an updated ASX All Ords PE chart

Looks like from 2009 been in a secular bull market .... but in saying that that does make the secular bear that started in 2000 a very short one (only 8 years).

Maybe the world moves faster these days and cycle times are shortening. If so maybe the current secular bull will end next year

For the record from July15 to July16 the All Ords is down 1% even though its EPS is down 10% - the PE expanding from 15.8 to 17.4 has saved the day for punters

[winner69]

All Ords closed at a 2016 high at year end and slowly getting back to where it was a few years ago

Earnings (market EPS) still trending down but market PE still trending up

PE at December was 17.1 - the up trend from 2008 is still in tact which is a sign of a secular bull market

Even though Australia economy a bit dodgy market should do well in 2017 - positive momentum in PE expansion

No worries

[macduffy]

This seems to be the right thread for this post. Robert Gottliebsen thinks that Australian franking credits may be under threat from potentially lower Aust tax rates if the USA lowers theirs and Aust needs to follow suit. The result could be lower Australian shareprices, generally.

https://www.investsmart.com.au/investment-news/trumps-hidden-sting-for-share-investors/138780?utm_source=isgroup&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=free-weekend-200117

[winner69]

For what's it worth the PE (trailing) of the ASX All Ords has reached 18 which is highest it's been since 2002. My chart below based on Colin Nicholson's numbers

Comes at the same time when Factset reports the forward looking PE of the S&P500 is at it's highest since 2004 https://insight.factset.com/earningsinsight_02.17.17

The world sure is a happy place at the moment