Bottom or bear rally?

[STRAT]

good god, i think we could all be victims of one of those.

Just go back and take a look at these beauties from me:

REF
HTI
ETC now called NBS

Live and learn. What is the point of getting shirty?
If you can't live with your record, then what is the point?

I like investing. The score is on the board and clearly, I am still learning to weigh up risk, reward, market conditions and a few other variables.Agree totally.
For me being corrected on this site is the number one gain from being a member. Depends whos doin the correcting mind you :D

Having some of the talented people here at ST looking over my shoulder and steering me strait is a wonderful asset. We all have ego and like with musicians there is plenty in this game too. Fortunately for me mine is not attached to this game. In fact Im remarkably unemotional about it :eek:

[STRAT]

One wit responded "Good God man, what do you do - put a bucket on their head?" Clever eh?At risk of being seen as obtuse on a public forum I have to admit I dont get that one :confused::eek::D:o

[STRAT]

At risk of being seen as obtuse on a public forum I have to admit I dont get that one :confused::eek::D:oOh, yes I do. Doh :o

[Phaedrus]

Gut says correction wont go too much lower if at all. If it wasn't for Phaedrus's splash of red i'd probably be a lot more confident.Any perceived "disagreement" between your views and the MSI is only temporary, LM. Either you will modify your opinion, or the MSI will move out of the red to reflect a new reality. Let's hope it's the latter!

[Hoop]

Agree totally.
For me being corrected on this site is the number one gain from being a member. Depends whos doin the correcting mind you :D

Having some of the talented people here at ST looking over my shoulder and steering me strait is a wonderful asset.......

Agree whole heartily with your post Strat.

Just yesterday Dumbass corrected me on my EW error in my old chart. Having these experts willing to contribute and help has to be, as you say, a wonderful asset... one, we learn from our mistakes (hopefully:)), and makes us become more knowledgeable in these specialised fields and ultimately better off for it..... and two, it adds to the reputation for the ST website for delivering a higher quality of information.

May it continue...

[COLIN]

A rather ugly end to Wall St - does Phaedrus have a deeper shade of red he can use?

[winner69]

A rather ugly end to Wall St - does Phaedrus have a deeper shade of red he can use?

Still not FEAR according to the VIX ....

[Footsie]

The forum has helped me escape nasties like ETC/NBS.

Whilst I often question Phaedrus and TA (as i believe no system is perfect)... I know its benefits are immeasurable. it's usually my emotional stubborness that gets in the way.
Phaedrus is the best TA person ever on ST, period. and we are all in debt to him for the work he has done and the "oh phaedrus can you chart this or that". he always does it.
but i must say i dont like it went it "quotes" me and points out failings


my biggest error which i seem to repeat over and over again is underestimating the potential downside... that and not taking profits.

those are my goals for 2010 and beyond. take profits and don't underestimate downside.

[stone small green]

i still don't get what this post is about.....

ssg

[drillfix]

My My, the Dow is fudge, the 10,000 psychological support gone but that was not the actual TS, as that would be around 9700 (there abouts).


Commodities up but which way will the ASX go, will there be enough in that to keep the head of the asx up above support? Who knows, very possible but again who knows.


Here are a couple things of interest.


Check out this article on Algorithmic trading.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/asx-points-finger-at-machine-traders-20100208-nne1.html


and then a site with all the indexes.

www.indexq.org

[peat]

Phaedrus is the best TA person ever on ST, period. and we are all in debt to him for the work he has done and the "oh phaedrus can you chart this or that". he always does it.

you forget Arco.

in fact personally , with no disrespect to Phaedrus and his sterling efforts I think arco is technically (sic) the better technician especially now after having seen his website. His only failing from most of your perspectives is that he doesnt focus on shares anymore.

[drillfix]

you forget Arco.
His only failing from most of your perspectives is that he doesnt focus on shares anymore.


Ya know what? I dont blame him.

The other point is, I feel it should not be put down to just one or two people on a website.

We all should be learning as much as we can from any sources, even those who are non technical so we can learn from their experience.

Build our own strengths, be it with TA or FA, reinforcing with information to overall protect our capitol and look at ways to continue to gain in both Falling and Rising Markets.


Kudos to both Phaedrus and Arco, both of them combined should give you plenty of indication to aid us with our own endeavours.

[trackers]

Have now swallowed my pride and moved to 70% cash :)

[Hoop]

Jeez...Ords bounced up off 4501
That bloody close to my 4500 resistance worry point.:eek:
4500 is a primary line below it marks this downturn as a major trend change

[Phaedrus]

Does Phaedrus have a deeper shade of red he can use?How about black then?

All the system has done here is use black when the MSI (plotted in the upper pane) is "negatively saturated" and cannot go any lower. W69 had a similar request for a "greener green" when things were going well, so I have done the same thing for him, using purple to mark when the MSI is "positively saturated" and cannot go any higher. Do you guys see this as an improvement, or are we guilding the lilly here? To my mind, more can often be less, and the ultimate system for me is very simple, with just 4 colours indicating the 4 possible actions.

You will notice that I have completely stopped providing any MSI interpretation. (Any buy/hold/sell/stand-aside recommendations.) Too controversial eh - it drew too much flak. Sensitive souls like me just can't handle that. The whole thing became bogged down in petty semantics. This indicator will tell you exactly where the market is at. What you do with that knowledge is entirely up to you.

To me it is quite obvious that some really, really useful conclusions can be drawn from this chart, but I guess we all see things differently.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP29.gif

[fihr]

KW - there are probably many ways to short the market. It depends what your broker offers. I've sold CFD's on the ASX200 index, but there are also CFD's based on the SPI futures contract, or you can use put options or put warrants on the ASX200. Trading hours and also expiry vary depending upon the instrument you use, and the broker you are with, which may affect which suits you. So you would need to check with your broker/s.

Obviously the hold time could also affect your choice of instrument.

[Jess9]

Probably need a new thread dedicated to "how to short a market".

[Caesius]

All ords hit 4499! Technically does this mean bad things or do we need to go a fair way below the resistance at 4500 to mean something?

[ratkin]

Perhaps, but Ratkin and I go way back. Over 10 years ago we were on ShareChat - disagreeing on everything. To lend some numerical support his views, Ratkin created 8 (eight!) new "aliases" all of whom made profound statements such as "I'd have to agree with Ratkin on this one". My one truly unforgivable sin was to expose this duplicity.

One of Ratkin's nicks was "Vlad the Impailer". One wit responded "Good God man, what do you do - put a bucket on their head?" Clever eh?


Only ten years?? I think we have been at loggerheads since 1997.
Im not going to rake up the old eight alias buisness again , we been there done that.
Vlad the impaler was never one of mine though , and the ones i did have were all on different chat sites . One name on sharechat , one on sharetrader , one of hotcopper etc etc. Certainly wasnt talking to myself although it sometimes feels like it.

Im used to you searching back of past years posts to find my (bad picks...not the good ones !! ) then charting them up to show the forum where i went wrong .
Only time you really annoyed me was when you published my real name on the forum . A big no, no , doing that , we have aliases for a reason.

Apart from that i like to see your posts and charts on the forum , even if i do sometimes like to wind you up (all in good fun) Some other posters seem to get upset by my doing that , but they probably dont know our history.

OMG Just noticed you have added a black crayon to your indicator , where will it end!!
At least when the media says its a black day on wall street we will now know what they mean !

Still think a 200 day moving average would do just as good a job , but each to their own

[drillfix]

So many questions, as your not willing to disclose, i guess the only choice is to follow blindly or not. I thought you were a advocate for educating , thinking and acting for ones self.

AA


AA, I once did ask Phaedrus the exact question and he did answer me how they were built up to create the colours, as I thought he may have just been colouring them in, but no, there is intervention into the charting platform to custom your own type of indicator.

I forget which post, and which exact data and how it was used, but it had been disclosed so Phaedrus is not hiding anything.

Kinda like, Hey Phaedrus dude, whats in that black box of yours :D ;)

[drillfix]

Fair enough AA, you raise some good points there mate.

Again, I am pretty sure that P did mention this at one time though when asked, although it may not have been the exact formulae in detail ike the one you have asked about.

Ahh well, sometimes panadine gets the better of me. :rolleyes:

[Footsie]

Hoop looks like you might get your HAMMER today... albeit a small one

[evilroyrule]

please explain. i too am on the lookout for hammer formations. curious as to how you read that today mr footsie? im still very much learning

asx showing a real determination to lift off 4500 today.

[Phaedrus]

Still think a 200 day moving average would do just as good a jobYou are dreaming, mate - unless you think that a lag of three and a half months is "just as good"!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP29rat.gif

The uptrend was more than half over before a 200 EMA gave an entry signal - and it still hasn't got you out!

[Phaedrus]

Why is the Green Smiley face (Buy?) at the Weak but rising, when historically prior to it, it had produced many whipsaws resulting in losses?Huh? Look at the chart. That "weak but rising" signal was the first since the plot went red way back in June 2008! There were NONE in the intervening period of over 9 months! You reckon it should have been ignored?


Also confused to just how the MSI indicator actually corresponds with the colors, where exactly are the threshold points?I have already explained this is some detail in many posts, AA, so I am surprised you are still confused. This (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=271179#post271179) post gives a nice simple explanation of the threshold levels. ("The Index is charted in different colours which are controlled by the MSI plot as per the inset table")


When the MSI drops below 0 the colors can still indicate very very strong, or very strong.BS! Where is the plot purple (very very strong) or green (very strong) and the MSI oscillator below 0? NOWHERE! Are you on the sauce again, AA?


So many questions.....and so little understanding!


As your not willing to disclose, i guess the only choice is to follow blindly or not.AA, I've disclosed a lot - as much as anyone here would find helpful or understand - more, in your case. Do you really think that my posting about 400 lines of complex MetaStock code would assist anybody on ST in the use or understanding of this indicator?


I thought you were a advocate for educating , thinking and acting for ones self.You thought right. I've even said "Don't follow me - develop your own system". I believe that I have done more than most to educate people here in the use of TA. I do sometimes wonder why I bother, though!

AA, why the overt hostility here? Why the antagonism?


Its possible to have each indicator on auto look back and automatically Curve fit its own parameters in real time to historic data, then you can take a bunch of auto adjusting indicators and turn them into one indicator, which is an average of all of them, then apply color coding to its signals, I have many versions like this on amibroker.If you had read my posts, AA, you would know that this system does NOT backtest, does NOT curve fit and does NOT auto-adjust indicators. I have explained the principles behind its signals. I have explained that THESE SIGNALS ARE NO BETTER THAN THOSE DERIVED FROM CONVENTIONAL TECHNICAL INDICATORS.

I have already explained that its chief virtue is its total objectivity in that it has no user-variable parameters at all. In theory this should protect me from allegations of "hindsight" from Ratkin and "curve-fitting" from you.

Fat chance!

[dumbass]

hi hoop, here is my asx count for the bull run from 02

all waves must follow the three main rules:

1 wave 2 never moves beyond the start of wave 1

2 wave 3 must never be the shortest wave

3 wave 4 never enters territory of wave 1

there are many guidelines but the rules must be respected or yourcounts incorrect.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/0hahcguw.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=0hahcguw.jpg)

[Phaedrus]

AA, The green arrow and the smiley face mark the start of a light green "Strong and Rising" phase - not a "weak but rising" phase (khaki) as you stated.

Unfortunately, I missed your mistake and what's worse, carried on using the wrong wording in my subsequent argument.

So, starting again..... That light green "Strong and Rising" signal was the first since the plot went red way back in June 2008. There were NONE in the intervening period of over 9 months.

The idea is to buy into a strong market - not a weak one. As you have noted, buying too soon (on a "weak but rising" market = when the plot is khaki) is not a good idea, giving many whipsaws and losing entries. That's why I don't advocate it.

[Ish]

Do i need to correct you once more?
nah Ill let readers think.

Check your post and chart.

Phaedrus your arrow doesn't point to strong and rising!

I'm no fool so don't try take me as one.

"you missed "my" mistake", come on , who you trying to kid.

I can't believe you tried that one ... lol

AA

Well as a reader I find his charts pretty insightful...

[Corporate]

AA and Phaedrus, I read both your posts (twice) and I can't understand what the significance of the smiley face and where it is pointing..maybe I'm just inexperienced.

[ratkin]

Im sure Coppock never had these problems when developing his indicator

To be fair to Mr P his smiley face is pointing to the light green strong and rising , but it hard to see as the next colour is very similar. Maybe the smiley face and arrow should of been in the same colour as the one it was meant to be pointing at.

Its all becoming too messy though , too many colours etc. And like Mr P himself says himself there are other indicators which do a similar job, and they are less confusing to look at.

Maybe you need to cut down on the number of categories , as the action to be taken for each of them isnt that different. Basically the three falling ones just mean tighten stops and exit individual stocks when stop is hit

[Lego_Man]

Looks like it points to the start of "Strong and Rising" to me.

Which also happens to be the colour not seen since early 08...

[Jess9]

Thumbs up Phaedrus : ) Keep them charts coming. Great heads up! Then as you say, up to the individual to act (or not). I'll try and hold off buying till that next smiley face. Hard to do when habit is to try and catch falling knives. Your chart will help to break or at least severely delay and curtail this bad bad habit. Thanks and thumbs up again Phaedrus for all the effort you put in. Appreciated!

[ratkin]

lol , and i was going to suggest you might be colourblind.

I think we both agree its confusing , trouble is whenever i suggest that , im jumped on by his disciples.

There are two colours on the rising bit , it starts of light green and goes to a sort of magenta colour .

[Phaedrus]

Do i need to correct you once more?
nah Ill let readers think.Excellent. Gentle readers, to make it easier for everyone, here is a much enlarged view of the period in question. The extra width of the plot makes colour differentiation straightforward, simple and obvious.

Look carefully at the 9 month downtrend. Note the complete absence of ANY light green "Strong and Rising" buy signals. Solid black, red, magenta and khaki (all weak) the whole way down.

Now, can you see any points where the plot DOES turn light green? You can? Excellent!


Phaedrus your arrow doesn't point to strong and rising! But AA, it DOES! It points to light green, which, from the key, is "Strong and Rising"! There were in fact identical confirmatory signals on either side of the one I marked with the big green arrow. They are obvious on this enlargement, but quite hard to see on the main chart.

Let me try another tack, AA - one last attempt before I give up altogether. Forget all about colours and concentrate on the actual plot of the MSI oscillator, at the top of the chart. For a "buy" signal, we are looking for evidence of market strength, right? See how the MSI plot was below zero (weak) for the entire 9 month downtrend? See how it eventually broke above zero into positive territory? (denoting a strong (and rising) market). See how it then very quickly went on to above +0.5? This denotes a "very strong" market.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP29AA.gif


I'm no fool so don't try take me as one.Is there any chance you are colour blind AA? (A serious question, not meant as sarcasm).

Indulge me and take this quick test :- What colours are the following numbers?
ONE
TWO
THREE
FOUR

[Footsie]

the light blue and light green very similar on my screen, but i'm guessing that late march if the movement is up its a light green?

therefore looks like there is a quick whipsaw late march.
assuming you buy on the light green


but depends if you buy on the light green or wait for the dark green

?????????

but at the end of the day, it proves the system works.

However, works brilliantly in a trending market. BUT In a choppy sideways market like we havent seen for a long time, try DOW JONES 2004. I suspect the system would be of little benefit and it would have you chopping in and out of the market on a regular basis.

Everyone seems to have forgotten that markets dont always trend up and trend down.... they go sideways too.... and can often in a 10% range for 12 months.

In conclusion the system is fantastic at catching major trend moves. times when you should be fully in and fully out of the market. what we all hope for. but folks can still make money in a sideways market by picking the right stocks. Alas nobody knows when a sideways market will hit.

[ratkin]

All the trend following indicators look fantastic when you look at a chart from 2003 till now , because it a strongly trending market.

TA always looks good in these conditions. Just look at a point and figure chart for the same period , a thing of beauty , giving great entry and exit signals.

Basically , they all do the job.

I liked Ps chart when it came out, nice and simple with a few colours and categories. He has become a bit carried away with it though , it now has too many colours and categories and has become cluttered.

When you can have a long term chart that within a week or two has
weak but rising
strong and rising
strong and falling

all so close together just adds to confusion. It is after all just meant to be a barometer of the overall market , to aid in decisions made over buying and selling individual stocks. Dont need so much minute detail.

Damn good entertainment though , almost as good as coro

[Phaedrus]

I think its a screen color issueSo do I.

Just for a laugh, why don't you take the test?

Go on!

[Hoop]

hi hoop, here is my asx count for the bull run from 02

all waves must follow the three main rules:

1 wave 2 never moves beyond the start of wave 1

2 wave 3 must never be the shortest wave

3 wave 4 never enters territory of wave 1

there are many guidelines but the rules must be respected or yourcounts incorrect.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/0hahcguw.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=0hahcguw.jpg)

Thanks for the post Dumbass...appreciated

Could you clear some points for me....

Questions::)

1.. I was rather surprised to see your 1 wave end at approx 3300 and you used the blip of a down turn for the second wave [150 points (-4%)]. You have obviously use senstive parameters and therefore as 3 has extensions 1 can not also have extensions (rule)...but you can only count in hindsight then??? So..Why is 2 treated as a wave (sub) because as I see it it could just be a pre-xmas aberation an insignificant wave of 6 weeks within the 5 year Elliot wave?

2...Referring back to question 1 ....regarding wave 2...how much less significant in its trend change(impulse) can it be before it is totally ignored as a wave completely?

The rest from there beyond wave 2 I understand...also notice the extensions in wave 3 and its subwave within subwave counts.

3...I notice the subwave count around 3500 is nearly the same magnitude as the 2 wave?? so why wasn't 1 wave end at this point..as I see it the 1 wave has a 6 subwave count. If the 2 wave lift up to this 3500 point there is now 2 - 5 subwave counts (9 points).

Cheers
Hoop

[pago]

Thats because of your field of experience, ignorance is bliss.

Well all the best Ish, more i look at it, worse it gets.

Good Basic Price analysis using S&R along with Basic TA rules will Out Performs this , thats why Phaedrus stats SIGNALS ARE NO BETTER THAN THOSE DERIVED FROM CONVENTIONAL TECHNICAL INDICATORS, (which are all fairly poor stand alone) his method are DERIVED from Known TECHNICAL INDICATORS which are DERIVED from PURE PRICE. At the end of the day, you take something very SIMPLE LIKE PRICE, turn it into complicated derivatives (indicators) , then try compress those derivatives into something simple again, its all pretty laughable if you think about it. Im glad it impresses you ISH.

Then Phaedus gets all excited when his indicator signals near the same time as a Trend line drawn on .... YES YOU GUESSED IT.... PURE PRICE.

Wow impressive, what a fluke.



This is nothing personal, i think Phaedrus is a awesome contributor, but this is not impressive imo.

Too many people focus on indicators rather then learning to read basic OHLC price data and volume.

My view, sorry if you don't like it.

AA
aa,i find your post aggressive,you do better,.

were you not the avid follower of robbo,you were very aggressive then too if not abusive.
if i had the time and inclination i could recall some very dumb posts/calls by you.if you can post better charts then p ,dont attack p ,just do it,pago

[geezy]

the charts dont look too good does it. are we goin to see the V shape recovery or W shape recovery.

testing times indeed

[Lego_Man]

your post taken on board, and I want admin to ban me, can someone see this through please.

AA

Huh?

:confused::confused::confused::confused:

[pago]

What I learnt from my terrible Experience from the days of Robbo is to never follow someone else. Hence my angle of not following blindly, but learn all you can and understand it.

your post taken on board, and I want admin to ban me, can someone see this through please.

AA

hi aa ,like to see your chart,imho,maybe more downside but medium term upside,pago

[dumbass]

hi hoop
wave 1 and 2 s from my experience are not always so clear and often seem disproportionate in relation to the wave structure but zooming in on that wave 1 it displays typical properties of 5 wave advance.
channel form with fifth wave completing on channel line , commonly wave 3 gives the extreme indiactor reading with wave five the divergent reading.
23.6 retracement for wave 2 would be considered shallow and as it turned out to be, a very bullish indicator.
when i first got into elliot, i thought all waves would be like in the text books , two waves similar magnitude one wave extending etc but if it was that easy then elliot wave would soon be redundant.
this is not a great example of waves in action as there are so few significant retracements and there are many extensions but its occassionally how markets go.
try recounting the waves and relabelling and you will see its quite difficult to satisfy the main wave tenets.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/p5nk1tcc.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=p5nk1tcc.jpg)

[ratkin]

Market gone ballistic in last ten minutes , put on 100 in a flash . News that the euro zone going to help out greece

[Dr_Who]

Market gone ballistic in last ten minutes , put on 100 in a flash . News that the euro zone going to help out greece

Maybe time to start buying again.:)

[The Big Ease]

of course they are going to help out greece.
They're just haggling over the terms.

[STRAT]

They're just haggling over the terms.As in who will end up owning the joint? :eek:

[Jess9]

I saw "in principle" re bail out statement. Still waiting for the smiley face...

cut and paste from full story :

"European Central Bank member Juergen Stark even said last month that "markets are deluding themselves if they think that member states will open their wallets to save Greece.""

Link: http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5imb1YnytP4SnvdbS1lGEbDqYK3xQ

[Phaedrus]

Confused by complicated colours?
Weary of weak warnings?
Cherish clear charts?
Irritated by inconclusive indicators?
Upset by unnecessary utilities?
Spurn surplus signs?
Loathe lots of labels?
Recoil from redundant representations?
Hate hordes of hints?
Nonplussed by needless nonessentials?
Puzzled by a plethora of pointers?
Scorn a surfeit of signals?
Crave clear choices?

Here is the chart for you!

Constructive criticism and comment is welcomed.

Trolls will NOT be fed.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds210.gif

[STRAT]

Confused by complicated colours?
Weary of weak warnings?
Cherish clear charts?
Irritated by inconclusive indicators?
Upset by unnecessary utilities?
Spurn surplus signs?
Loathe lots of labels?
Recoil from redundant representations?
Hate hordes of hints?
Nonplussed by needless nonessentials?
Puzzled by a plethora of pointers?
Scorn a surfeit of signals?
Crave clear choices?

Here is the chart for you!

Constructive criticism and comment is welcomed.

Trolls will NOT be fed.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds210.gif
Simple. Thats a bit of me :D

In particular when trying to gain an over all market picture. I prefer to leave detailing to individual stocks.

Personally I think all versions are excellent.

The fact you share your work very kind.

The fact that you havent thrown your hands in the air and said to yourself " fruck it" remarkable.

Thanks Phaedrus. Very much appreciated. All of it

[Year of the Tiger]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds26.gif



This version suits me just fine. Easy to read, not too cluttered, and doesn't launch an assault my little brain. :D

Thanks Phaedrus.

YOTT

[Dr_Who]

I cant believe you guys are having a debate over the colours of the chart! LOL

[Footsie]

P
THe most recent version is the best... no confusion over colours... NICE AND SIMPLE

its kind of like going to the super market and having 10 different brands of Baked Beans.

When there is only 3. its much easier.
Less is sometimes more.

[wbosher]

I like the one in YOTT's post.

K.I.S.S. :D

Should take a vote? Which one of P's MSI chart do you find easier to understand?

Which one do you prefer P?

Disc - I am a little colourblind.

[Lego_Man]

Now that's just not as much fun!

I would be interested to see a full colour chart of approximately 2000-2004, just to see how the indicators fired in previous downturns.

But anyway, i dont think anyone should view Phaedrus as "corrupting minds" with his rainbow graphs. As for the charge that he doesnt use support, resistance, and trendlines - well he does, as we've seen in numerous individual stock threads. The rainbow offers a general market overview.

The forum benefits from diversity of views, whether it be from traders of the differing styles of Phaedrus, AA, Dumbass, Hoop or Ananda (to name a few). Not to mention fundamentalists, of which there are also too many to name, but have put me on to a number of profitable names in the past year.

I for one appreciate any post that can offer a perspective backed with rationale. Just because Phaedrus's posts are more visible doesnt take away from anyone else's at all.

In conclusion, let's all hug it out :eek:

My 2c...

[Arbitrage]

[QUOTE=Phaedrus;292760]Confused by complicated colours?
Weary of weak warnings?
Here is the chart for you!

Constructive criticism and comment is welcomed.



So is this the beginning of a W sharemarket trend?

[ratkin]

Just red and green gets my vote.

Like another poster says the detail should be in the individual stock charts , the all ords one just to give
overview of market

[Dr_Who]

I just want to know when its a good time to buy again. I've got itchy fingers and some of my favourite stocks are looking nice and cheap!!!

YA me too!

I feel like shopping!

[Voltaire]

Constructive criticism and comment is welcomed.


Phaedrus, firstly, I'm impressed by your continued efforts in fine-tuning this indicator and appreciative of your postings - thank you.

Personally, I prefer the simpler (fewer colour) versions of your chart. My ideal version would be a traffic-light variant (3 strong, distinct colours - e.g. red/green/orange) coupled with the adjoining MSI indicator graph (which for me is the main focus of interest).

I take it you've set a bounded range of -1 to 1 for this indicator? Given that the indicator has sometimes sat on these boundary values for significant periods of time I wonder if there is value in re-weighting the indicator to allow it to approach but never reach the boundary values - this might allow for a more fine-grained reading of values closer to the boundaries. An alternative would be to allow the values to range freely but to weight them in such a way that they corresponded to a normal distribution curve.

[wbosher]

I just want to know when its a good time to buy again. I've got itchy fingers and some of my favourite stocks are looking nice and cheap!!!

ASX up 1.5% in 15 minutes! Today looks good if you're in for a bit of a gamble, I think I'll wait a wee while yet.

[Hoop]

Thxs Dumbass for your time.
I've learn't something :) Hope I can remember it;)

[drillfix]

Folks, great to see the markets green, it feels good on the eyes as well as the brain.

But I dont know about you, I continue to feel and see this Tip Toe affect and a very gradual approach here.

Meaning, not Solid Buying or in other words I am not fully convinced as yet and still feel cautious.

Would be good to have some huge volumes across the board to be convinced though. IMO

[ratkin]

Im not buying at the moment , the DOW didnt really kick on this morning , was up over 200 but dropped back .

Last March / April was a no brainer , best buying opportunities in decades. Dont see those bargains now ,

[fihr]

Phaedrus, I like the 6 colours. I think 6 colours allows people with different risk profiles to potentially adapt their use of the graph to their trading strategy better. If you commercialised it, then it could have a facility for individuals to modify it to their preference, but in the absence of that, I think 6 allows more flexibility in use.

For example, a more aggressive investor might enter the market on light green 'strong and rising', and exit on red 'very weak'. A less aggressive investor might choose to enter on dark green 'strong' and exit on dark blue or pink. (Sorry if I've muddled the colours up.)

Less colours means less potential for adaptive use of the graphs. More than 6 colours doesn't seem to add any more adaptive potential.

As for the colours themselves, green and red are the obvious choices for strong and very weak, but the rest of the colours could be chosen based on making a change in colour easy to read.

Anyway, thanks for posting the graphs - I think they are very useful.

[sharer]

Simple. Thats a bit of me :D
In particular when trying to gain an over all market picture. I prefer to leave detailing to individual stocks.
Personally I think all versions are excellent.
The fact you share your work very kind.
The fact that you havent thrown your hands in the air and said to yourself " fruck it" remarkable.
Thanks Phaedrus. Very much appreciated. All of it

Hear! Hear!
Many thanks Phaedrus. :)

[evilroyrule]

inresting day. up over 1 % first half hour, currently a big fizzer. whats up? doesnt anyolne believe the hype???

[ratkin]

Usually means bad night for the DOW

[evilroyrule]

markets all over the show like a mad ladys ****!

dow up 1.5% we go backwards???which way is up. confusion/uncertainty reigns huh?

[Dr_Who]

markets all over the show like a mad ladys ****!

dow up 1.5% we go backwards???which way is up. confusion/uncertainty reigns huh?

Abit like an alcoholic at the strip club?

[evilroyrule]

bit like being at strip club doc. just watching. and waiting. and nothing happens.

[JBmurc]

have been hit really hard of late thanks to ROC an the fact I've had very few days near the internet(prob only 7-8hrs since start of year) was planning on putting stoplosses in the new year one of the jobs I planned to do but didn't get round to was feeling bearish for more later in the year got me good this time.
hoping to for new tread back-up 20% min on oversold jnr cap shares which i have a few..
still can't complain to much as still up 100% on this time last year...

[Abracadabra]

Like most of the people here, I really appreciate any charts posted here, I feel I am learning so much from everybodys take on things.
I agree with Y.O.T.T., I do like the original charts, I think the ones with all the different colours are really clear and easy to follow.

[percy]

Like most of the people here, I really appreciate any charts posted here, I feel I am learning so much from everybodys take on things.
I agree with Y.O.T.T., I do like the original charts, I think the ones with all the different colours are really clear and easy to follow.

I find the charts are excellent.Often give me a good wakeup call.
Interesting views and comments on a lot of interesting companies.
It all helps to better understand the market.This latest shakeout has made me review my portfolio.I do find the well managed,well financed,focused companies continue to perform well.I am thinking of EBO and RYM in particular.Good research before buying saves a lot of worrying.

[ratkin]

Problem is if the EU helps Greece , then the rest of the laggards are going to want their cut.
Why would portugal etc make much effort , easier to live it up and let the EU bail them out.

Greeks on strike today , Government wants their workers to have to work until they are sixty three !!
With that meditteranean diet they should be retiring at eighty


I lived on Crete for four years and its a great place , but its more about sitting around in tavernas playing
tavli (backgammon) and drinking raki and krasi.
When i heard they had joined the EU i knew it would end in tears. Fantastic place , but they have their own
way of doing things , working isnt a high priority which is why they probably live so long.
They should bring back the Drachma , let the albanians do the work and go back to their tavli games

[Zito]

That is such an interesting viewpoint, Ratkin, esp with respect to the "one-size-fits-all" nature and approach of belonging to the EU. Obviously we are seeing the effect this can have on the very different cultures that exist within the borders of the EU and their different attitudes and approaches to life.

What may be a great idea for France, Germany and the Dutch may not work quite as well in other parts of Europe such as Greece partly due to the cultural differences. Fascinating.

[Dr_Who]

It is a catch 22 situation for the EU.

If Greece falls, it will bring down the EU. If they bail out Greece, then they gonna have to bail the rest out. The Euro zone is just as important as the US and Asia. Any default in Euro will have a flow on effect for the rest of us.

[winner69]

Joker on the radio this morning says the Greece GDP per capita is the same as NZ's

So we are just as lazy as they are ... but they seem to have more fun ... and its warmer

PS not really thinking about it in the past I thought Greece was a big country and was suprised to see its pop is only 19 million .... probably populated the rest of the world, including Oz

[Dr_Who]

Joker on the radio this morning says the Greece GDP per capita is the same as NZ's

So we are just as lazy as they are ... but they seem to have more fun ... and its warmer

Probably true.. LOL

Maybe time to buy a retirement home in Greece. :D

[winner69]

... will the world markets collapse when somebody needs to bail NZ out .... we really do need that NZD to halve in value so we can our way in the world

[wbosher]

A friend sent me this link - http://broadcast.ino.com/education/deja_vu/

What do you reckon?

[Dr_Who]

A friend sent me this link - http://broadcast.ino.com/education/deja_vu/

What do you reckon?

Today's economy is very different from the 1930s. We have China and Asia which have or is currently decoupling with good internal growth. Most of the companies is in good financial sharp bringing in good profit and have recapitalized.

I think this year will be a tough and volatile year. We may see stagnation in the near future due to the high levels of public debt as experienced in Japan. I dont think we will have another crash unless China crashes on us.

[winner69]

A friend sent me this link - http://broadcast.ino.com/education/deja_vu/

What do you reckon?

So this guy reckons the DOW will fall to 1500

Could be right considering the state of the worlds financial systems

We shallhave to wait and see

Just imagine if Hoop and Phaedrus had 'whiteboards' like this !!!!!!!!!

[bermuda]

I wish America had more companies like Coca Cola.

Sales decline in the States but MASSIVE sales into China and India.

ps No wonder Greece is going belly up. 43% of the 16-24 year olds are unemployed. That is a staggering figure.

wbosher. Thanks for that link. A bit of a worry for the DOW....hopefully China, India and Brazil can keep the worlds wheels turning.

[shasta]

I wish America had more companies like Coca Cola.

Sales decline in the States but MASSIVE sales into China and India.

ps No wonder Greece is going belly up. 43% of the 16-24 year olds are unemployed. That is a staggering figure.

wbosher. Thanks for that link. A bit of a worry for the DOW....hopefully China, India and Brazil can keep the worlds wheels turning.

Bermuda

Don't forget the "R" among the BRIC countries = Russia ;)

Not just Brazil, India & China in growth phase

[bermuda]

Bermuda

Don't forget the "R" among the BRIC countries = Russia ;)

Not just Brazil, India & China in growth phase

Hi Shasta,
Yes I should have thrown Russia into the pot as well. Perhaps the reason I didnt was due to my watching a very compelling interview of the CEO of Brazil's OGX...a Mr Batista...reported to be the 5th or so richest guy in the world. Brazil is going gangbusters and doing enormous trade deals with China ...so big they are building mega Ports to handle the new 400,000 tons cargo vessels they are having built. This CNBC interview was very revealing about the strength of Brazil...and China...and India. Worth viewing if it repeats.

Anyway he was asked by CNBC where he was investing. He certainly said the USA was off the list as was Russia. When asked why not invest in Russia he replied that it was a matter of Law.

But yes you are right , it will be the BRIC countries that will get the world out of this mess.

[drillfix]

A friend sent me this link - http://broadcast.ino.com/education/deja_vu/

What do you reckon?


I watch Market Club videos alot.

In this case he is trying to give a warning, but it is what HE FEELS what will happen.

Truth is, he doesn't know, he is flipping a coin and guessing, but he will not admit that, because he is too busy trying to warn people.

There is a chance he could be right, and there is a chance he could be wrong, so what pisses me is he does not Disclose that by saying "Hey folks, I also could be wrong here".

I yield the warnings accordingly but I do not enjoy when guys like this use their gut feeling on matters when the truth about it all is, The Market will decide and anybody who thinks different is full of it.

He is probably one of these guys who if the market does fall 50 - 50 chance then he will say, I warned you, I called it, I told you all so.

So in brief again, its what he Doesn't Say is the thing that irritates me.

[ratkin]

The unemployment rate in greece is rather deceptive. Much of the work is done under the table , especially in agriculture , tourism and construction.
Many young people go away in the winter and work in Germany.

Lage geographical area but small populating . Melbourne is the second largest greek city in the world, in terms of the number living there.

Even worse problems will be the likes of bulgaria , rumania and hugary.
at least Blair had the sense to keep the british pound

[Ish]

The unemployment rate in greece is rather deceptive. Much of the work is done under the table , especially in agriculture , tourism and construction.
Many young people go away in the winter and work in Germany.

Lage geographical area but small populating . Melbourne is the second largest greek city in the world, in terms of the number living there.

Even worse problems will be the likes of bulgaria , rumania and hugary.
at least Blair had the sense to keep the british pound

Romania doesnt use the Euro for one (the other new entrants to the EU are probably in the same boat). So they have at least dodged that bullet so far.

[winner69]

One day the world will wake up to the fact that NZ economy is stuffed .... just as well for us most see NZ as part of Australia etc

We are in good company with a deficit of 9% of GDP with no real effort from our govt to fix it (table courtesy of Casey Research)

[peat]

if this thread is going down the EU issues path then there is an excellent analysis of Germany's options at Stratfor. I posted a link in the Eur/Usd thread in the forex forum
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showpost.php?p=292665&postcount=839

As always with Stratfor it has a geopolitical focus not a financial one, something which can also be very interesting.

Essentially Germany (not the ECB) if it chooses to (and it probably will because for all its strength Germany is full of fear of the failure of the EU - as the EU is what prevents it from ever having to deal with military aggression on multiple fronts) will take control of the failures

This almost amounts to a 21st century version of Lebensraum, without having to conduct a war.

[Footsie]

The term Lebensraum in this sense was coined by Friedrich Ratzel in 1901, and was used as a slogan in Germany referring to the unification of the country and the acquisition of colonies, based on the English and French models.
Wikipedia


Maybe. I think you are right about avoiding collapse of the EURO though.
But ultimately its inevitable. If not this year, then one day either the germans take over or the euro breaks up

[COLIN]

The term Lebensraum in this sense was coined by Friedrich Ratzel in 1901, and was used as a slogan in Germany referring to the unification of the country and the acquisition of colonies, based on the English and French models.
Wikipedia


Maybe. I think you are right about avoiding collapse of the EURO though.
But ultimately its inevitable. If not this year, then one day either the germans take over or the euro breaks up

Interesting to see the origins of "Lebensraum" described in that fashion in Wikipedia. I had always thought that it was Hitler who "popularised" the word, using it as justification for his war of aggression in Europe, i.e. to give Germany more "living room" there. One is always learning. (Provided, of course, that the entry in Wikipedia is authoritative).

[Footsie]

AA

wow
it's even more simplistic than Phaedrus chart

[evilroyrule]

pleasent end to the day! was that on good volume, or was it just the asx getting sick of being down??. seems we getting tired of trying to take a lead from the dow. they say tomato....

[drillfix]

If you use Amibroker and I can get it decent over the next few weeks, whisper me and ill post you the Formula

http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/3374/screenhunter02feb111725.gif (http://www.imagehosting.com/)

Thanks for the chart there AA, much appreciated.

One can never see enough charts to have a variety of take on the subject.

Cheers~! :)

[macduffy]

Interesting to see the origins of "Lebensraum" described in that fashion in Wikipedia. I had always thought that it was Hitler who "popularised" the word, using it as justification for his war of aggression in Europe, i.e. to give Germany more "living room" there. One is always learning. (Provided, of course, that the entry in Wikipedia is authoritative).

Yes, Colin.
Wikipedia may have the origin right but as we know it took on a more sinister meaning in the 1930's and thereafter. I think that's how peat meant it?

[Zito]

A friend sent me this link - http://broadcast.ino.com/education/deja_vu/

What do you reckon?


Great link, wbosher, thanks very much. I have for at least a year had almost the same view as the bloke on the video. I have been ridiculed for having this view as people are unwilling either to heed the example which history provides us, or have their heads so firmly buried in the s**t they find themselves in that they cannot see that it is only going to get deeper.

In fact, my very first post was on this very subject: (April 2009, "2009 NZ Economy Overview and Outlook thread")

"My first post and so I realise what I say will be likely treated with little credibility.

However it is my firm belief that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be below 2000 maybe as soon as the end of 2012

I base this on the evidence that this economic downturn is now likely to become the biggest recession since the Great Depression; indeed, it may well surpass the Great Depression in length and severity. Certainly the indications are that the financial crisis which has triggered the recession is getting worse, not better; and that governments - by throwing money around like they can somehow be a part of the solution - are only exacerbating the problem.

Historically, if we are looking at a similar scale drop in the DJIA this depression compared with the 1930s, we should expect te Dow to fall over 85% from its peak This is what happened 1929-1933. I believe we have just entered 1930 again. Although the causes of this depression (which it will be) are far more serious. We are in big trouble."

I was alarmed at the number of posters, who, upon finding the "recovery" in full swing last April, boldly declared that the recession was over and it was roses and sunshine again for all eternity, Amen. Or so it seemed.

I wanted to sound a note of caution. Governments (esp in the US and Western Europe) have had their printing presses going non-stop since mid 2008 in an attempt to curb the worst of the recession. The Keynesian mantra goes that governments now have the knowledge and the means at their disposal to 'buy' their way out of a recession, that government spending is somehow "stimulatory" rather than consumptive.

But the truth, as demonstrated so ably by the Austrian School of Economics, is quite different, and is paraphrased in the video. Essentially, the stimulus packages were a transfer of debt from the private sector to the public sector. No money was created, none was destroyed. And nobody suddenly became better off. Quite the opposite. The taxpayers of the US, especially, became significantly worse off. Why? Because instead of the debt of private companies being borne by private individuals, what the government said was that the entire taxpaying nation of America would now take on that debt. Instead of allowing poorly-run, non-profitable companies to fail, the government decided that the economy would be better off with these companies operating, whatever the cost to the taxpayer. Hence the bailouts.

This flies in the face of rational economics. In finance there is no such thing as a free lunch. You can't borrow from Peter one day and expect to not have to pay Paul next week. It may take 4 years for "next week" to come around, but we are already starting to feel the effects of the crazy fiscal policy followed by the States during the past 18 months. The stimulus packages may have served to stave off a major depression in 2009-2010. But stave off is all it has done. The wolves are still at the door, and the day of reckoning has merely been postponed. I don't particularly want to see it - my living is made on the sharemarket - and I hope I'm wrong, but I still believe we're in big trouble.

Brazil, China, India and Russia are NOT strong enough combined to prevent a depression as they are still enormously reliant on the West for their markets. If the West topples over into a prolonged depression, as I believe it inevitably must, the others will follow. I also believe (but this delves into geopolitics) that the political collapse of China and Russia is imminent in the next 10-15 years, as the inevitable result of depression and subsequent economic collapse.

[The Big Ease]

Confused by complicated colours?
Weary of weak warnings?
Cherish clear charts?
Irritated by inconclusive indicators?
Upset by unnecessary utilities?
Spurn surplus signs?
Loathe lots of labels?
Recoil from redundant representations?
Hate hordes of hints?
Nonplussed by needless nonessentials?
Puzzled by a plethora of pointers?
Scorn a surfeit of signals?
Crave clear choices?

Here is the chart for you!

Constructive criticism and comment is welcomed.

Trolls will NOT be fed.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds210.gif

Good, but I think you had it right with the original.
It is important to distinguish between weak and rising v strong and rising IMO.
I really don't understand why some found it to be too complex.

Thanks for your efforts.

[drillfix]

Great link, wbosher, thanks very much. I have for at least a year had almost the same view as the bloke on the video. I have been ridiculed for having this view as people are unwilling either to heed the example which history provides us, or have their heads so firmly buried in the s**t they find themselves in that they cannot see that it is only going to get deeper.

....

Historically, if we are looking at a similar scale drop in the DJIA this depression compared with the 1930s, we should expect te Dow to fall over 85% from its peak This is what happened 1929-1933. I believe we have just entered 1930 again. Although the causes of this depression (which it will be) are far more serious. We are in big trouble."[/I]



Hi Zito,

Mate, with regards to your last post there, I can agree with much of what you have said so when viewing my reply, please take into consideration that I am not out here to slam you one bit Ok.

Now, I would also like to point out what I have already posted about regarding that so called video.

The poster of the video brings into vision and memory of what past lessons have we learned and facts about how history repeats.

With that design concept in mind, I would like to address not so much what he has said or what truths he can provide by posting it, but more so the more important view of what HE DID NOT SAY.

There is so much of the ingredients of the Soup that he has left out. PLUS, he only addresses a one way view rather than the other side of coin so to speak.

This does not mean that the other side of the coin is a golden paradise that we all live happily ever after, but more so, maybe one that is not as bad as you point out.

Why???
Ok, good question.

1stly, lets talk about the 1929 crash ok, do you know what caused it, and are you aware that there were NO REGULATION what so ever?

Everything was written by hand, and designed to collapse, and like everything, that is the way the game works, nothing new and it continues time after time so Yes history does repeat, but back to Regulation, there was none back then and even the US President Herbert Hoover at that time actually knew about the what was actually going to be a Fall, a big one, one that would have devastating effects.

Of course, he did want to spoil the party so to speak so let it ride as if he did stop the party, he would have been elected out of his presidency with high probability.

Ok, enough of 1929, but still there are loop holes always open to these banking and financial cartels and one could go on forever about this, but it still happens today.

If you also understand the system and make up model of the current US electronic trading structure, you will see it is just so open to holes and regulation that do not affect these so called cartels, and these cartels are known commercial entities/corporations that we all know, Yet we have not choice but to accept their power and presence amongst that system.


Moving on towards the "other side of the coin" so to speak.

Back then, is not now, I still agree, bad and hard times could easily lay ahead in the not so distant future be it, 2 years whatever.

My reasoning is factors of changing of World Power, and everybody will know that China will be there amongst the top.

Now back then (History) there has been repetitions without a doubt, but the story of what the world is/was/has been then, is not exactly the same, its like as much as the world is the same, its not quite the same world as it was 20 years ago, its far far far different. (I know, no need to say the obvious).

And what I refer to is the Digital Transaction age and not the paper age where by writing con notes by hand. Things are different and YES there will be crashes, but they come back into line faster (it seems). So I also agree, lets not get complacent about our Magical Balloons that always go up.

Adding to this NEW WORLD is the need for technology, energy, health and needs to cater for a INCREASING POPULATION, what about that, and those industries that are in incubation and being hatched?? I hear nothing about them in the PAST crystal ball type talk.

Now my last point about the other side of the coin is, who say that everybody with money or that invests GOES LONG with every single stock, index, currency or commodity for that matter?

Are you aware that the majority of successful traders will make 70% (yes I said 70%) of their profits from Falling markets, or from whatever instrument that Dives or Plummets whatever??

Well that means surely they are making money does it not? Doesn't that mean money will be made regardless of what and when potentially something happens???

OK,
Now that is what I call the other side of the coin.

Can you relate to that?? Can you see that there is more to the picture than just what ONE GUY who knows and is good at charting makes a very Valid Point, but TOTALLY forgets to take into consideration the EVER CHANGING WORLD.

Crash hey???? Well I Love it. Bring it on, and Bring it on over the next month because you know what, I will be there for my Opportunity to MAKE some money which will be 70% more along with a guaranteed Direction of Trading it.

Hope this helps you see what I feel the other side of the coin is.

ps: no offence to you mate, but look both ways before you cross the road hey ;)

pps: Why not copy and paste this in an email and post it to the fella and see what he potentially forgot to say.

[The Big Ease]

must be getting awfully close to breaking out of the red and into the weak/rising colours.

DJI about .9% up as I type and it has broken through the trendline (v.narrow margin)

[JBmurc]

Great link, wbosher, thanks very much. I have for at least a year had almost the same view as the bloke on the video. I have been ridiculed for having this view as people are unwilling either to heed the example which history provides us, or have their heads so firmly buried in the s**t they find themselves in that they cannot see that it is only going to get deeper.

In fact, my very first post was on this very subject: (April 2009, "2009 NZ Economy Overview and Outlook thread")

"My first post and so I realise what I say will be likely treated with little credibility.

However it is my firm belief that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be below 2000 maybe as soon as the end of 2012

I base this on the evidence that this economic downturn is now likely to become the biggest recession since the Great Depression; indeed, it may well surpass the Great Depression in length and severity. Certainly the indications are that the financial crisis which has triggered the recession is getting worse, not better; and that governments - by throwing money around like they can somehow be a part of the solution - are only exacerbating the problem.

Historically, if we are looking at a similar scale drop in the DJIA this depression compared with the 1930s, we should expect te Dow to fall over 85% from its peak This is what happened 1929-1933. I believe we have just entered 1930 again. Although the causes of this depression (which it will be) are far more serious. We are in big trouble."

I was alarmed at the number of posters, who, upon finding the "recovery" in full swing last April, boldly declared that the recession was over and it was roses and sunshine again for all eternity, Amen. Or so it seemed.

I wanted to sound a note of caution. Governments (esp in the US and Western Europe) have had their printing presses going non-stop since mid 2008 in an attempt to curb the worst of the recession. The Keynesian mantra goes that governments now have the knowledge and the means at their disposal to 'buy' their way out of a recession, that government spending is somehow "stimulatory" rather than consumptive.

But the truth, as demonstrated so ably by the Austrian School of Economics, is quite different, and is paraphrased in the video. Essentially, the stimulus packages were a transfer of debt from the private sector to the public sector. No money was created, none was destroyed. And nobody suddenly became better off. Quite the opposite. The taxpayers of the US, especially, became significantly worse off. Why? Because instead of the debt of private companies being borne by private individuals, what the government said was that the entire taxpaying nation of America would now take on that debt. Instead of allowing poorly-run, non-profitable companies to fail, the government decided that the economy would be better off with these companies operating, whatever the cost to the taxpayer. Hence the bailouts.

This flies in the face of rational economics. In finance there is no such thing as a free lunch. You can't borrow from Peter one day and expect to not have to pay Paul next week. It may take 4 years for "next week" to come around, but we are already starting to feel the effects of the crazy fiscal policy followed by the States during the past 18 months. The stimulus packages may have served to stave off a major depression in 2009-2010. But stave off is all it has done. The wolves are still at the door, and the day of reckoning has merely been postponed. I don't particularly want to see it - my living is made on the sharemarket - and I hope I'm wrong, but I still believe we're in big trouble.

Brazil, China, India and Russia are NOT strong enough combined to prevent a depression as they are still enormously reliant on the West for their markets. If the West topples over into a prolonged depression, as I believe it inevitably must, the others will follow. I also believe (but this delves into geopolitics) that the political collapse of China and Russia is imminent in the next 10-15 years, as the inevitable result of depression and subsequent economic collapse.

yeah I agree an will be taking action over the next couple months to sell down some positions an have some cash sitting in my CFD account ready to short the market.

am currently reading a book at work called - the coming depression-it is old written back in 1990 back many of the facts it has about world economies over the last 300yrs shows how the next depression could well surpass the great 1929 because of my worst factors like the fact the US back in 1929 had a far stronger savings rate an far less dept to GNP also government didn't have anywhere as much costs to the population like today's social security or medicare etc
add in the fact the US population is very much aged compared to the 1930's so the tax intake is falling not growing..
later this year will be known as the crash of 2010

8 out of-10 major falls happen later in the year round october

[STRAT]

I see the Bears are coming out of hibernation :D

This has turned out to be an interesting and useful thread in many ways but if you go back to the beginning the consensus was that it was a bear rally back in March 09.

The big lesson for me is it doesnt really matter what the talking heads and experts say. It doesnt matter if a new low is coming and it really doesnt matter that the market appears to have turned up again in the last few days (dow). There is always time to get in and out by keeping an eye on the bigger picture.

Im mostly out and looking for a re entry. I may re enter the same stocks at a similar price to my exit, Cheaper or for a little more but my insurance policy is in place and has been for a few weeks now.

[wbosher]

Im mostly out and looking for a re entry. I may re enter the same stocks at a similar price to my exit

Same here Strat. I'm eyeing up a couple of stocks that I was in a few weeks ago, looking much cheaper. :D

Still a bit hesitant though.

[STRAT]

Same here Strat. I'm eyeing up a couple of stocks that I was in a few weeks ago, looking much cheaper. :D

Still a bit hesitant though.better in a little late than way to early I reckon :D

Knife catchers are like people who play the pokeys or bet on the horses. They only let you know when they win ;)

[evilroyrule]

Im mostly out and looking for a re entry. I may re enter the same stocks at a similar price to my exit, Cheaper or for a little more but my insurance policy is in place and has been for a few weeks now.[/QUOTE] this is what strat said

and that has been the biggest lesson for me in all of this.

i stayed all in (bought a few as well) but compared to strat and others my strategy (if it was one at all) had huge risk and huge exposure. for potentially the same result (although mine arent quite back at what they were, and not saying this is over) strat has been 100% safe, relaxing and able to consider other buying /investing options, while i have been left with my pants down! next time i wont be so slow!!

[STRAT]

strat has been 100% safe, relaxing !That could be construde as bending the truth a little Roy :D
Not 100% out and by no means relaxed. Now Im worried that I should have held on to a few. I will worry either way :rolleyes:

[Phaedrus]

I cant believe you guys are having a debate over the colours of the chart! LOLWe are not debating colours so much as trying to find the optimum number of levels needed to adequately monitor the state of the market. So far, 5 people prefer 4 steps and 6 people prefer 6 steps.
Here's how I see it :-
2 levels. Not enough. Too simplistic. No intermediate states. No preliminary warnings.
3 levels. Still not enough. When in intermediate state, no clue as to trend direction.
4 levels. Minimum number required for acceptable results. Nice and simple.
6 levels. Gives good results, flags subtle changes.
8 levels. Provides no extra usable information.


I take it you've set a bounded range of -1 to 1 for this indicator? Given that the indicator has sometimes sat on these boundary values for significant periods of time I wonder if there is value in re-weighting the indicator to allow it to approach but never reach the boundary values - this might allow for a more fine-grained reading of values closer to the boundaries.Interesting insightful suggestions Voltaire. This is not the post of a newbie. Where have you been?


I think 6 colours allow people with different risk profiles to adapt the use of the graph to their trading strategy. For example, a more aggressive investor might enter the market on light green 'strong and rising', and exit on 'weak and falling'. A less aggressive (less active) investor might choose to enter on dark green 'very strong' and exit on red 'very weak'. Less colours means less potential for adaptive use of the graphs. More than 6 colours doesn't seem to add any more adaptive potential.Fihr, I have quoted your comments (slightly paraphrased) in full because I agree with them 100%.


It is important to distinguish between weak and rising v strong and rising IMO.I agree. This needs 6 stages.


The big lesson for me is it doesnt really matter what the talking heads and experts say....There is always time to get in and out by keeping an eye on the bigger picture.Exactly.


Must be getting awfully close to breaking out of the red and into the weak/rising colours.Very, very close indeed, but no cigar. The plot did move into the magenta range intraday, but it closed back in the red - just a gnat's eyelash away from magenta. See plot at top of chart.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/DOW212.gif

[wbosher]

Cheers for the P, have you got one for the XAO after yesterday's rise? That must be getting pretty close too!

[trackers]

Thanks Phaedrus..

May I suggest a yellow for caution? The greys seem too hard to distinguish between

[newbe]

Im mostly out and looking for a re entry. I may re enter the same stocks at a similar price to my exit, Cheaper or for a little more but my insurance policy is in place and has been for a few weeks now. this is what strat said

and that has been the biggest lesson for me in all of this.

i stayed all in (bought a few as well) but compared to strat and others my strategy (if it was one at all) had huge risk and huge exposure. for potentially the same result (although mine arent quite back at what they were, and not saying this is over) strat has been 100% safe, relaxing and able to consider other buying /investing options, while i have been left with my pants down! next time i wont be so slow!![/QUOTE]

Myself too, 4 weeks ago was sitting with $10k profit, then waited, waited oh too late $4k loss just like that. I too have learn't so much in the last 2-3 weeks and next time will act so much faster. edit: strange did not quote correctly.

[Phaedrus]

Here you are, WB :-

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds212.gif

[Phaedrus]

May I suggest a yellow for caution? The greys seem too hard to distinguish betweenI rather like the two greys and their association with....
Deteriorating weather
Grey areas
Gathering clouds
Increasing gloom
I figured that even the colour-blind and those with dodgy screens would be able to differentiate between them. The light grey/dark grey intersection of course marks where the market shifts from positive overall sentiment to negative, a matter of some interest to many.
Those that prefer the simpler 4 phase chart are catered for here too. All they do is focus on the red and dark green, ignoring all intermediate colours. Red and green sectors are exactly the same in both 4 and 6 phase charts.

I reckon this version is very nearly the final one.

[trackers]

I rather like the two greys and their association with....
Deteriorating weather
Grey areas
Gathering clouds
Increasing gloom
I figured that even the colour-blind and those with dodgy screens would be able to differentiate between them. The light grey/dark grey intersection of course marks where the market shifts from positive overall sentiment to negative, a matter of some interest to many.
Those that prefer the simpler 4 phase chart are catered for here too. All they do is focus on the red and dark green, ignoring all intermediate colours. Red and green sectors are exactly the same in both 4 and 6 phase charts.

I reckon this version is very nearly the final one.

Fair enough.. Mark IX is looking very good... Thanks again for all the time spent its appreciated by many. Interesting that the line is upturning yet still at -1

[wbosher]

Here you are, WB :-

Thanks P.

Still doesn't look too flash does it? :eek: Thats the XAO, not your indicator. ;)

[drillfix]

better in a little late than way to early I reckon :D

Knife catchers are like people who play the pokeys or bet on the horses. They only let you know when they win ;)

Not quite True there Strat.

I have disclosed whatever small gains or losses that I have done.

As far as knife catching goes, well I also call that opportunity to either day trade or even swing trade it.

There are plenty of excellent day and swing trades stacking up as we speak.

Each to their own I guess dear buddy ;)

[mark100]

I rather like the two greys and their association with....
Deteriorating weather
Grey areas
Gathering clouds
Increasing gloom
I figured that even the colour-blind and those with dodgy screens would be able to differentiate between them. The light grey/dark grey intersection of course marks where the market shifts from positive overall sentiment to negative, a matter of some interest to many.
Those that prefer the simpler 4 phase chart are catered for here too. All they do is focus on the red and dark green, ignoring all intermediate colours. Red and green sectors are exactly the same in both 4 and 6 phase charts.

I reckon this version is very nearly the final one.

I like it P

[drillfix]

See plot at top of chart.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/DOW212.gif

Phaedrus,

I like the tiny little Sentiment indicator on the very bottom, right, corner...LOL

Is that part of metastock too :p

[Phaedrus]

I like the tiny little Sentiment indicator on the very bottom, right, corner.. Is that part of Metastock too? Yes, it is. Whenever it appears, the "death march" plays on my PC. I have an interesting library of .wav files that can be linked to any given trading signal. I've got gunshots, groans, cheers, farts, toilets flushing, screams, explosions etc etc etc. I can also set up my own comments, such as "You should NOT be holding this stock at this time, you moron". That would be when a stock hits its trailing stop, for example.

[drillfix]

Yes, it is. Whenever it appears, the "death march" plays on my PC. I have an interesting library of .wav files that can be linked to any given trading signal. I've got gunshots, groans, cheers, farts, toilets flushing, screams, explosions etc etc etc. I can also set up my own comments, such as "You should NOT be holding this stock at this time, you moron". That would be when a stock hits its trailing stop, for example.

Haahahaa Phaedrus, love it. sounds like your a real card after all mate, and thats cool~! :p

[sharer]

Yes, it is. Whenever it appears, the "death march" plays on my PC. I have an interesting library of .wav files that can be linked to any given trading signal. I've got gunshots, groans, cheers, farts, toilets flushing, screams, explosions etc etc etc. I can also set up my own comments, such as "You should NOT be holding this stock at this time, you moron". That would be when a stock hits its trailing stop, for example.

I was going to say that beautiful chart & MSI that distinguished even just a gnat's eyelash away from the boundary, was really persuasive ...
but now we've discovered the auditory correlates of changing market status, i'm totally convinced!:)
It must be really fun in your workshop when the markets go wonky.
Thanks again. Best part of the day!

[drillfix]

Hey Phaedrus, got any good Broker Jokes to go along with those savvy media files of yours?

[Phaedrus]

Drillfix, I don't even know any good brokers, let alone jokes about them.

The brokers that I do know are a joke, though!

[drillfix]

Drillfix, I don't even know any good brokers, let alone jokes about them.

The brokers that I do know are a joke, though!

Sheez Phaedrus, the question was "not" if you knew any good brokers.

Let me just put on my serious face here :cool:

Regardless, I like the media file thing that you got going with your setup anyways, that will do for a for a Friday laugh I guess :rolleyes:

[STRAT]

Not quite True there Strat.

I have disclosed whatever small gains or losses that I have done.

As far as knife catching goes, well I also call that opportunity to either day trade or even swing trade it.

There are plenty of excellent day and swing trades stacking up as we speak.

Each to their own I guess dear buddy ;)Too true dear Drilly but I suspect you would be the exception rather than the rule ther mate.

Im partial to the odd bit of knife catching and the odd longshot too. Never more than about 10% of my total interest in the Markets though. Ive found the/my win ratio over the years has been about 1 in 5 with these which has actually been quite profitable. Hugely so if you dont mention the 4 losers ;):D

I have no problem with day trading but Im a part timer in this game. Perhaps later in life when Im a bit sharper and have more time.


PS I will think you will find Phaedrus' last post was a Broker Joke :p

[drillfix]

No worries there Strat, and a good brief summary too, as knife catching is something that one must be fully and completely aware of.

I wonder if Phaedrus has a "Dont catch that knife" mp3 sitting somewhere on his drive...lol :p

[Hoop]

I see the Bears are coming out of hibernation :D

This has turned out to be an interesting and useful thread in many ways but if you go back to the beginning the consensus was that it was a bear rally back in March 09.

The big lesson for me is it doesn't really matter what the talking heads and experts say. It doesn't matter if a new low is coming and it really doesnt matter that the market appears to have turned up again in the last few days (dow). There is always time to get in and out by keeping an eye on the bigger picture.

Im mostly out and looking for a re entry. I may re enter the same stocks at a similar price to my exit, Cheaper or for a little more but my insurance policy is in place and has been for a few weeks now.

Strat...my DOW charts are more optimistic than yours:cool:;)

Outside the perimeter of your charts lies a couple of important primary trend lines which makes the charts look a little better. You have the 2 charts shown but these primary downtrend lines were absent.
Also on the very long term chart (16 years) I have added the very reliable but always a late bull market indicator. When the Coppock indicator changes trend below 0 it signals the start of a new bull market cycle.

Very long term view (16 years)
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW12022010.png

Long term term view (3 year)
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW12022010a-1.png

Long term view (1 year)

The blue arrows show the break above the short term downtrend line. Although the break is encouraging ..beware that there has been many false breaks lately.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW12022010b.png

[STRAT]

Thanks Hoop.

[STRAT]

Strat...my DOW charts are more optimistic than yours:cool:;)

Outside the perimeter of your charts lies a couple of important primary trend lines which makes the charts look a little better. You have the 2 charts shown but these primary downtrend lines were absent.


Primary trend lines down? You are right there, I had removed them. With only two points of contact prier to an unclear break and more important the plot moving so far away from the trend line on the first one I considered its value as an indicator to be low. Same with the second more or less. The first would have got me back in around now after being out since around Feb 08 and thats only after things come right from here which they may not. The second would have had me back in July. Although the trend line is absent the vertical blue lines ( buy signals ) mark the spot. This would have been way late too and I would have still been exiting when I did.

The DOW is something I look at in conjunction with the ASX for a Market overview only. I only trade on the ASX.

Actual entries and exits are dictated by charts of individual stocks not the broader picture. I would have sold what I have and kept what I have in exactly the same way without this broader view.

To me 16 years while interesting might as well be 60 years in practical terms. I have my life span to consider :D. One could argue that with the exception being March this year where we dipped below the trend line for just a moment, the DOW has other wise been in an up trend the last 17 years. Plenty of people would have made fortunes or lost their shirts in between. Inflation makes the picture distorted etc. You know what I mean........

[STRAT]

Hi Phaedrus. Just had another look at your MSI. My fav is with it shown as an indicator with a similar layout to RSI as seen in Drillys reply to you above.

[Voltaire]

We are not debating colours so much as trying to find the optimum number of levels needed to adequately monitor the state of the market. So far, 5 people prefer 4 steps and 6 people prefer 6 steps.
Here's how I see it :-
2 levels. Not enough. Too simplistic. No intermediate states. No preliminary warnings.
3 levels. Still not enough. When in intermediate state, no clue as to trend direction.
4 levels. Minimum number required for acceptable results. Nice and simple.
6 levels. Gives good results, flags subtle changes.
8 levels. Provides no extra usable information.

Interesting insightful suggestions Voltaire. This is not the post of a newbie. Where have you been?


Phaedrus, I'm not a big poster because most of the time I have nothing useful to add. I'm a newbie in the sense that I've only been investing in the share market since Jan 2008. It's been an interesting ride (aka: baptism by fire) and even though I'm down slightly overall in my investments through some clumsy decision-making I wouldn't have missed it as a learning opportunity.

Main mistakes made:
too slow to sell (when downtrending),
too fast to sell (when uptrending),
- thus my interest in your MSI.

My background and vocational history:
Highly varied, but it includes a background in pure mathematics.

I'm going to make another pitch for the 3 colour variant. So long as your MSI graph (ranging between -1 and 1) is attached, the action/trend within the intermediate state (let's call it "orange") for a particular stock or index chart is discernible - the important information, so far as the chart is concerned, is that an "alert state" exists; one is waiting for the chart to tip towards either red or green.

[drillfix]

I'm a newbie in the sense that I've only been investing in the share market since Jan 2008. It's been an interesting ride (aka: baptism by fire) and even though I'm down slightly overall in my investments through some clumsy decision-making I wouldn't have missed it as a learning opportunity.

My background and vocational history:
Highly varied, but it includes a background in pure mathematics.



Hi Voltaire,

Hey, I know you say you are new to share trading but I thought if there was any relation to the Voltaire that posts on HC (hot copper)?

Maybe crossed nic'd but not to worry mate, its all good.

Being a mathematician type of guy, I would believe over time you and learning will go hand in hand and will become a pretty good master of Probability providing you can also master discipline along the way.

Appreciate your comment there about Baptism of Fire, ain't that the truth, and good to hear open posts about confronting your mistakes.

Welcome to ST mate.

[Phaedrus]

I think this might finally be IT. Some of you wanted 4 stages, some 6...... here is the perfect compromise. 5! These give you everything you need and nothing that you don't need.

Buy when the plot turns Green. Sell when it turns Red. How simple is that!

Very conservative investors might like to wait for a dark green signal before buying, but most would probably want to get in as soon as possible at the light green. Light green also flags excellent entry points into a pre-existing uptrend.

Those wanting a 3 colour "traffic light" system would simply treat the 3 intermediate phases (light green, light grey, dark grey) as amber.

The trend ribbon at the bottom of the chart is for those who demand the ultimate in simplicity.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds213final.gif

[The Big Ease]

take out "very" and just leave it at strong.
It seems odd otherwise to go from very strong to falling.

But in terms of indicating the changing phases of the market, I like it.

[drillfix]

I think this might finally be IT.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds213final.gif

Phaedrus, any plans for a nice complex / complicated version now the simple prototype version is complete? :)

[Phaedrus]

It seems odd to go from very strong to falling.Good point, although it was actually going from "very strong" to "Strong, but falling". The new legend as below should make this more clear.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds214.gif


Phaedrus, any plans for a nice complex / complicated version....? That is what the plot at the top of the chart is. The whole nine yards, with every market ripple, nuance and subtlety portrayed for the delectation and edification of TA aficionados and the cognoscenti.


.... now the simple prototype version is complete..... Simple? Prototype? Version? Mate, this is it - the final model. I cannot see how I can improve it any further. It is the best I can do.

[The Big Ease]

That's some good work Phaedrus.
Once again, thank you for sharing.

[percy]

That's some good work Phaedrus.
Once again, thank you for sharing.

Yes I also thank you for sharing your excellent charts. I find them simple to understand and a great deal of information in them.Thank you Phaedrus.

[drillfix]

That is what the plot at the top of the chart is. The whole nine yards, with every market ripple, nuance and subtlety portrayed for the delectation and edification of TA aficionados and the cognoscenti.


Phaedrus, thank you, I honestly do appreciate your effort and contribution.



Came across this chart from HC, re SP500 Emini's

I think this one would suit YOGI down to a T.

http://i797.photobucket.com/albums/yy252/Pauley2/SP500EminiConcentricCirclesAstroStu.jpg?t=12660333 10

Take note of the Mercury indicator...lol

[Voltaire]

Simple? Prototype? Version? Mate, this is it - the final model. I cannot see how I can improve it any further. It is the best I can do.

And very good it is too - very happy with this, thanks again Phaedrus.


Hi Voltaire,

Hey, I know you say you are new to share trading but I thought if there was any relation to the Voltaire that posts on HC (hot copper)?


Hey Drillfix,
thanks for the welcome - nope, no relation to my namesake on Hot Copper - wasn't even aware of that site, thanks for the tip.

[wbosher]

Cheers Phaedrus, keep up the good work. :D

[jdg]

yeah, excellent stuff, P. it's great to have you on the forum.

-j

[Phaedrus]

Still no buying allowed :-(Ah, but that's only your interpretation, KW!
Contrarians, for example like to buy when the market is weak and falling. Remember too, that old saw "Be brave when others are fearful, and fearful when others are brave".
Look back over the chart and see just how well that one has worked out.

[Jess9]

...or just don't buy into a down trend. A rule which is so obvious, BUT in practice takes much much self control ; )

[ratkin]

Warren Buffet was lucky he never read this thread in his youth. He would never of gone on to become the worlds richest man

[Phaedrus]

Pardon??? Your previous pink and red periods were clearly labeled "no buying"That was when I was young and foolish, KW. Back then I used to give advice as to logical actions for each market phase - but got so much stick for my troubles that I no longer do this. Maybe I went too far in telling people when to take their holidays!!!

I can provide a sound objective opinion as to the markets current phase, but what people do with that info is entirely up to them. I think that you and quite a few others will be able to make sensible, logical decisions based on what phase the market is in. How's that for a vote of confidence?

[Jess9]

KW. I think that P has tongue and cheek here : ) What is alluded too is that there are a number of times that a "contrarian" investor may have entered in the last correction (bear) period. Only to have his/her opinion confirmed by new lower lows : ) Any such entry would have cost the "buy and hold" investor dearly. The chart therefore may be used to provide an high level and objective buy signal for next time, and if acted upon considerable reduces market risk - but only for a DISCIPLINED investor.

[STRAT]

Still no buying allowed :-(Hi KW,
Ive had buy orders in for the last few days :eek: Mind you some are just plain rood and unlikely to be filled :o. I suspect Phaedrus is no longer on Holiday either. If the DOW is up tonight and the ASX follows tomorrow that will light up a few charts, Bells and Computor sound bites I reckon.

[Hoop]

Hi KW,
Ive had buy orders in for the last few days :eek: Mind you some are just plain rood and unlikely to be filled :o. I suspect Phaedrus is no longer on Holiday either. If the DOW is up tonight and the ASX follows tomorrow that will light up a few charts, Bells and Computor sound bites I reckon.

I think the DOW and Wall St is closed tomorrow (Monday 15th) its Presidents Day...Washington's Birthday or what ever they want to call it...
Strange thing is that Washington's birthday is on the 22nd Feb...Hmmmm :confused:...oh well..;)

[STRAT]

I think the DOW and Wall St is closed tomorrow (Monday 15th) its the Presidents Holiday...Washingtons Birthday or what ever they want to call it...
Strange thing is that Washington's birthday is on the 22nd Feb...Hmmmm :confused:...oh well..;)Hi Hoop,
Oh, I guess it will be news out of the US only then. I wonder how we will go tomorrow then? Another up day would be 3 in a row and if you include the 2 previous down days which could be construde as up days because they gapped up?:confused: That would make a week of it :eek::eek::eek:

[STRAT]

Hi Hoop,
Oh, I guess it will be news out of the US only then. I wonder how we will go tomorrow then? Another up day would be 3 in a row and if you include the 2 previous down days which could be construde as up days because they gapped up?:confused: That would make a week of it :eek::eek::eek:Strike that regarding the two down days gapping up. Actually just ignore the whole post :o
I have my glasses on now

but there were a few Bulls around on that Wedensday as seen in the candle and the last week has been giving early signs that we should be on the ball IMO

[STRAT]

Havent included todays fall but a rise tomorrow would make today a nice higher low. The above is just food for feedback and ridicule :D

NOT ADVICE and by no means conclusive

[fihr]

Hi Phaedrus, I still like the chart with 6 colours, but, the one with 5 is also great. I can definitely use it in combination with my own trading strategies. Very simple, which is good for people such as me, and very clear. Thanks very much for sharing it here.

I am buying the odd stock at the moment in my speccie portfolio, but in my other portfolios, I'm having a rest. I'm happy to miss some gains but conserve my capital when things look potentially dodgy. Still have a lot in cash from not having a proper entry/exit system in place in the past.

[Hoop]

Strike that regarding the two down days gapping up. Actually just ignore the whole post :o
I have my glasses on now

but there were a few Bulls around on that Wedensday as seen in the candle and the last week has been giving early signs that we should be on the ball IMO

Yeah..that hammer last Tuesday (9th) is encouraging... so is the upturn flick of some of the TA indicators off their bottoms since then ...but the world markets are paranoid and recent false breaks doesn't encourage optimism. Nearly jumped back into miners last friday..whew.. lucky I didn't... today (Monday) would've hammered (pun) me.
Nothing exciting came out of Asian equities today neither.
.

The Ftse chart is similar to the All Ords and it is up +0.80% as I write..so maybe an up day tomorrow eh Strat....we seem to looking at Europe at the moment.

In comparison the NZX50 chart is looking positively ugly. :p

Disc: shares 55% cash 45%... lowest amount of shares held since last March

[STRAT]

Yeah..that hammer last Tuesday (9th) is encouraging... so is the upturn flick of some of the TA indicators off their bottoms since then ...but the world markets are paranoid and recent false breaks doesn't encourage optimism. Nearly jumped back into miners last friday..whew.. lucky I didn't... today (Monday) would've hammered (pun) me.
Nothing exciting came out of Asian equities today neither.
.

The Ftse chart is similar to the All Ords and it is up +0.80% as I write..so maybe an up day tomorrow eh Strat....we seem to looking at Europe at the moment.

In comparison the NZX50 chart is looking positively ugly. :p

Disc: shares 55% cash 45%... lowest amount of shares held since last MarchThanks for not hammering me Hoop:D. I must have edited the above posts more than cups of coffee I drink each day ( thats too much ) and I still want to delete them but the last week does show some signs of sunshine chart wise however small. Was enough for me to start putting up a few buy orders. Another week and the picture will be clearer.
Im 90% out right now.

Im off to make another cup of coffee.:rolleyes:

Speaking of cups. Early stages of a possible cup and ..... with OEL. What do you reckon?

[Hoop]

Thanks for not hammering me Hoop:D. I must have edited the above posts more than cups of coffee I drink each day ( thats too much ) and I still want to delete them but the last week does show some signs of sunshine chart wise however small. Was enough for me to start putting up a few buy orders. Another week and the picture will be clearer.
Im 90% out right now.

Im off to make another cup of coffee.:rolleyes:

Speaking of cups. Early stages of a possible cup and ..... with OEL. What do you reckon?

Nah..don't think so. Doesnt fit the rules.
Cup and handle usually occur during a temporary correction within a primary up trend cycle. OEL could be just starting its up trend...Looking good though Strat..eh?

Took me a while but I think I found one. I had PEM up until a couple of weeks ago.. I'll probably buy back in again.

Note: The chart is weekly not daily

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/pem_ax14feb07_to_26mar10.png

[STRAT]

Nah..don't think so. Doesnt fit the rules.
Cup and handle usually occur during a temporary correction within a primary up trend cycle. OEL could be just starting its up trend...Looking good though Strat..eh?

Took me a while but I think I found one. I had PEM up until a couple of weeks ago.. I'll probably buy back in again.

Note: The chart is weekly not daily

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/pem_ax14feb07_to_26mar10.pngYou are right of course and the time frame is way too short. Its not a cup its just a mug in the mirror :D

[drillfix]

You are right of course and the time frame is way too short. Its not a cup its just a mug in the mirror :D

LOL Stat, the TA artieeeest. Good one :p

[drillfix]

For the folks that are long, here is a nice little article for you from Wealthwithin.

Good on ya Dale, lets see if you can make P's chart go green ;)

http://www.wealthwithin.com.au/scripts/all-ords-report.php?id=32

[ratkin]

The great share sale is about to end , must be time for you all to buy back the ones you recently sold. Your brokers will be pleased.


I went shopping for a plasma with the wife yesterday

Wife: Oh look that tv is 100 dollars cheaper than last week , its on sale.

me: Never buy in a downtrend , we will wait for its price to recover, then buy it

Wife: But that logic is crazy

Me : Thats what they do on sharechat , and they know everything

Wife : No wonder the markets are screwed

[drillfix]

LOL Ratkin, you gotta good sense of humour.

Although, I lots of different strategy for each of us to take be it, in, out, half in, third in, both mixed whatever.

To me, the only right answer for each of us would probably be is to do what is most comfortable whilst completely understanding our risk and circumstances that govern us. :rolleyes:

[Dr_Who]

The great share sale is about to end , must be time for you all to buy back the ones you recently sold. Your brokers will be pleased.


I went shopping for a plasma with the wife yesterday

Wife: Oh look that tv is 100 dollars cheaper than last week , its on sale.

me: Never buy in a downtrend , we will wait for its price to recover, then buy it

Wife: But that logic is crazy

Me : Thats what they do on sharechat , and they know everything

Wife : No wonder the markets are screwed

LOL Classic :D

Dont you know all the TA on here have a crystal ball and can pick the bottom and the lotto number?

[percy]

The great share sale is about to end , must be time for you all to buy back the ones you recently sold. Your brokers will be pleased.


I went shopping for a plasma with the wife yesterday

Wife: Oh look that tv is 100 dollars cheaper than last week , its on sale.

me: Never buy in a downtrend , we will wait for its price to recover, then buy it

Wife: But that logic is crazy

Me : Thats what they do on sharechat , and they know everything

Wife : No wonder the markets are screwed

Wonderful Ratkin but whose's decision was it not to buy last week?

[drillfix]

Hold up here folks,

I can see this turning into a point the finger and laugh type thread now, which in all honesty should not.

Early days still for either the upside or downside and IMO if there were such a truth indicator it would be Confirmation.

I know that Dale from Wealthwithin does quite a good job at teaching, writing and sharing his TA and FA views on the markets but nothing in this world is set in stone.

So I dont know if I would start cracking champagne corks and joking just yet, but its always great to have a laugh along the way :p

[Jess9]

Germans and now Dutch against EU financial bailout for Greece. Lets see where this goes in the next few days, and takes markets...

[Hoop]

The great share sale is about to end , must be time for you all to buy back the ones you recently sold. Your brokers will be pleased.


I went shopping for a plasma with the wife yesterday

Wife: Oh look that tv is 100 dollars cheaper than last week , its on sale.

me: Never buy in a downtrend , we will wait for its price to recover, then buy it

Wife: But that logic is crazy

Me : Thats what they do on sharechat , and they know everything

Wife : No wonder the markets are screwed

The latest TA All Ords chart

Bad news Ratkin my chart shows the ORDS Index is about to plummet to zero. The chart indicators shows the All Ords is in panic and chaos.

You logic is correct... never buy that Plasma TV in a price downtrend...as you see from my chart the world is about to end..so buying that TV would be a waste of money.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/AllOrdsscrew.png

[Phaedrus]

The great share sale is about to end You sure do like "sales" Ratkin! Trouble is, you seem to define them as anytime shares (or TV's!) are slightly cheaper than they were before! Remember the "summer sales" of Feb '08 when you were buying up large? Remember all those "bargains" you were scooping up as the market plunged? Remember how you kept calling the bottom - but time after time the market just kept on falling?

It is very difficult indeed to assess a markets strength without some objective means of doing so. Here is where TA could help you. See how it is not a good idea to buy when the market is very weak? (That's when the plot is red). See how it pays to wait for any downtrend to end before buying? It would have been good if you could have learnt from your previous mistakes as shown here, but alas, this hasn't happened. Last time the market showed significant weakness you scoffed at prudent investors who cashed up to a greater or lesser extent - and you scoff yet again. It would appear that you have learnt absolutely nothing from your mistakes.


Must be time for you all to buy back the ones you recently sold. When the market is very weak is NOT a good time to be buying, Ratkin, remember? Learn from what happened last time. A glance at the chart should show you the best time to buy.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds216rat.gif

[STRAT]

The great share sale is about to end , must be time for you all to buy back the ones you recently sold. Your brokers will be pleased.


I went shopping for a plasma with the wife yesterday

Wife: Oh look that tv is 100 dollars cheaper than last week , its on sale.

me: Never buy in a downtrend , we will wait for its price to recover, then buy it :D

Wife: But that logic is crazy

Me : Thats what they do on sharechat , and they know everything

Wife : No wonder the markets are screwedHi Ratkin,
What ever ones trading practices that is a funny post. I like it :D

By the way. How much did you get off the retail price on your TV?

I can buy back my shares right now at around 20% off all up. Or I could buy 25% more. Thats not bad in less than a month dont you reckon?

I hope your shares end up with a better resell value than that Plasma TV

[Dr_Who]

KABOOM!

Upturn continues. Will it last? Who knows, just enjoy the ride. :)

[Hoop]

KABOOM!

Upturn continues. Will it last? Who knows, just enjoy the ride. :)
Is this Bull market correction coming to an end? Good day all around with oil up metals up..all points to the fact that since last week investor sentiment is now turned positive and the shorters getting burnt. Fundamentals such as increased profits above market expectation which was mostly ignored by the market during the earlier part of the reporting season will no doubt be used now as a media excuse for the markets recovery...Greece will be yesterdays news.

Could be a buy day for Hoop today.

[evilroyrule]

dow up 138 at this time. looks to be getting stronger

[evilroyrule]

151 now. wonder where it will finish

172.

126. eekkk!

169. phew!

[NoVice]

www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page67?oid=98596&sn=Detail

A viewpoint on China tightening cashflow which some may find of interest

[Footsie]

Wait for the signal everybody.... wait for the signal

[Dr_Who]

Wait for the signal everybody.... wait for the signal

Na mate, bought more shares yesterday. :)

[drillfix]

Lots of great news Raining from everywhere.

It will be VERY hard not to buy today with current sentiment and fundamentals upon us.

Even for a swing trade, you can always get out should it turn in the next day or three.

[Bobcat.]

FOREX USD combos against EUR, GBP, CAD and especially CHF are a fairly good guide to economic confidence. Both Gold and the USD are still seen as a safe haven when the news is grim (in spite of the massive US debt and other sorry-looking key economic indicators).

The EUR/USD broke through its downtrend early this morning, and it still looks bullish, whereas the USD against CAD, CHF and other currencies is hitting a lot of resistance. I think the worm has turned, enough so that I have just bolstered my Interactive Brokers account to trade forex against the US dollar...for at least a couple of weeks.

A weaker USD and stronger EUR will bolster stock markets globally...until the next fiscal fiasco surfaces for the common currency (Spain, Portugal?). Those who have studied enough history will know that a United Europe has been attempted many times but NEVER succeeded, well not for long anyhow. Ask Napoleon, Hitler, Cyrus, Alexander the Great or any one of the Roman emperors.

[Jess9]

Still 100% cash and liking no worries (while in the RED zone). I still prefer to miss possible gains (i.e. today) rather than be exposed to the risk of actual capital loss, while P's nice graph indicates EXTREME market risk is present. I'll change position fast when the time is right. Keep posting at changes please Phaedrus!

J9 : )

[Jess9]

Still much uncertainty...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1250433/Greece-debt-bailout-EU-leaders-split-euro-crisis.html

[ratkin]

There is always uncertainty , stop sweating the small stuff.
And dont read the daily mail. Its an awful paper

[Jess9]

Yip. Just watch the graph ; )

[ratkin]

Wheres P today? Probably too busy buying stocks to post messages

[STRAT]

Wheres P today? Probably too busy buying stocks to post messagesMaybe not.

OBV has remained flat and range bound during this upturn (DOW) plus other indicators yet to be confirmed. ASX looking better but if the DOW tanks again we all know where the ASX will go.

[evilroyrule]

boom goes the dynamite in asia tonight. up 2.5 - 3%. that should lead to increased volume tomorrow and the leg up to 4800.

stop losses - in need of some help here. direct broking dont have that feature. is there another way, and is there some commonality of thought as to what percentage they should be set as cf shares value? im think that might be a personal stategy for each investor? interested in others practices here.

[shasta]

boom goes the dynamite in asia tonight. up 2.5 - 3%. that should lead to increased volume tomorrow and the leg up to 4800.

stop losses - in need of some help here. direct broking dont have that feature. is there another way, and is there some commonality of thought as to what percentage they should be set as cf shares value? im think that might be a personal stategy for each investor? interested in others practices here.

Evil one :D

I'm aghast to hear DB still hasn't got stop loss facilities (even ASB Sec do)

You need to careful setting nominal stops, ie 10%, you can get kicked out of stocks too often, not to mention brokerage costs.

If you can't use stop losses online, keep on eye on the previous strong support level, & use a figure just below this.

Example, lets say for stock XYZ (a fairly imaginery liquid stock) the previous support was $1.50, you might want to place a stop loss at $1.48

[The Big Ease]

i will pre-empt the esteemed MSI and say we will be out of the red zone if the DJI holds.

The FTSE has had a very strong week and is 0.9% up as I type.

[tobo]

FTSE currently up 0.6%
DJ currently up 0.38%

assuming All Ords remains +tive today, I wonder how long it takes to change the red to green zone

[Dr_Who]

boom goes the dynamite in asia tonight. up 2.5 - 3%. that should lead to increased volume tomorrow and the leg up to 4800.

stop losses - in need of some help here. direct broking dont have that feature. is there another way, and is there some commonality of thought as to what percentage they should be set as cf shares value? im think that might be a personal stategy for each investor? interested in others practices here.

Stop losses are for pussies. REal men double up on the way down. :D

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds217.gif

I wonder how long it takes to change the red to green zoneMaybe we can get some rough idea from last time when it took a gain of over 280 to go from the red low to light green.

[evilroyrule]

Evil one :D

I'm aghast to hear DB still hasn't got stop loss facilities (even ASB Sec do)

You need to careful setting nominal stops, ie 10%, you can get kicked out of stocks too often, not to mention brokerage costs.

If you can't use stop losses online, keep on eye on the previous strong support level, & use a figure just below this.

Example, lets say for stock XYZ (a fairly imaginery liquid stock) the previous support was $1.50, you might want to place a stop loss at $1.48

thank you mr shasta. just what i was after. got my little fingers burned this last nosedive.

[wbosher]

boom goes the dynamite in asia tonight. up 2.5 - 3%. that should lead to increased volume tomorrow and the leg up to 4800.

stop losses - in need of some help here. direct broking dont have that feature. is there another way, and is there some commonality of thought as to what percentage they should be set as cf shares value? im think that might be a personal stategy for each investor? interested in others practices here.

Personally, I like to buy on the bounce from a higher low in an uptrend, and set the stop just below that low. If the stop is triggered, then that indicates to me that the uptrend is weakening and may head south. One a new higher low is formed, I then set my stop below that to lock in profit.

Just my way of doing things, others may (and no doubt do) have different opinions.

[Bobcat.]

Another good indicator that the market players are becoming less risk averse is the falling Japenese Yen. Overnight, the USD/JPY combination has soared from 90.15 to 91.35. The NZD and AUD have also had substantial gains against the yen.

Risk tolerance is returning to both the currency and equity markets, which means investors are becoming more bullish.

[dragonz]

Evil one :D

I'm aghast to hear DB still hasn't got stop loss facilities (even ASB Sec do)

You need to careful setting nominal stops, ie 10%, you can get kicked out of stocks too often, not to mention brokerage costs.

If you can't use stop losses online, keep on eye on the previous strong support level, & use a figure just below this.

Example, lets say for stock XYZ (a fairly imaginery liquid stock) the previous support was $1.50, you might want to place a stop loss at $1.48

Hi Evilrule

Just like to endorse what stasta suggested. Its a strategy that I now use and has lead to much better returns (and less brokage fees) overall.

[evilroyrule]

thanks fellas. i appreciate your thoughts. just gotta find that level of support.......

[dragonz]

thanks fellas. i appreciate your thoughts. just gotta find that level of support.......

Hey Evil

Try this site. I've found it useful in the past for a quick look at support/resistance. Dont look at their buy/sell recomendations however (unless you are going to do the opposite).

[Phaedrus]

Is there some commonality of thought as to what percentage they should be set as cf shares value? I'm thinking that might be a personal stategy for each investor? Every stock has its own optimum stop loss percentage, which can be found by back-testing. Just as it is very easy to out-perform trailing stops with conventional trend indicators, so it is also very easy to outperform fixed percentage stop-losses. The usual, conventional approach is to set your stop-loss just below the most recent support level as stated here by Shasta, dragonz, wbosher et al. Such a system will generally outperform even optimised percentage based stoplosses.
If you are running an "end of day" system, you would base your stoploss on the Close of a previous low, and make your exit just before the close on the day it was hit.
If running an intraday system, your stoploss would be based on an intraday low support level, and you would sell immediately this was exceeded - whenever that happened.

For "ordinary" stocks (ie those that are not especially volatile) it is surprising just how often the backtested optimum stoploss value turns out to be 6%. This could perhaps be viewed as a minimum useable value. Very volatile stocks may need a stoploss of >25%! I would suggest that you forget all about such a system and use the more logical, less arbitrary support based system just like most everyone else.

Stoplosses and trailing stops are infinitely better than nothing at all, but I see them as a system for people that don't really have a system.

Larry Williams claimed that any good system does not need a stoploss. I agree. More than that, I have proved time and time again that adding a stoploss to a good, technically sound system results in reduced overall returns.

[evilroyrule]

thank you Mr p, duly noted.

[Dr_Who]

Looks like international markets is moving up in a steady as she goes northwards.

Hows the graph looking?

[Footsie]

well.
looks like the fed have killed this rally. and sparked another sell off.

once again the market strength indicator kept you from getting sucked into this move up.

or am i preaching to the converted. as I now am.

[Bobcat.]

well.
looks like the fed have killed this rally. and sparked another sell off.



Why would raising the discount rate in the US be a bad thing? As Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan said today, this is good news for Japan's economy, and may actually support economic recovery more globally. It's a sign that things are recovering.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100218-723868.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines


I'm still buying - ELD and BUL today.

[JBmurc]

Every stock has its own optimum stop loss percentage, which can be found by back-testing. Just as it is very easy to out-perform trailing stops with conventional trend indicators, so it is also very easy to outperform fixed percentage stop-losses. The usual, conventional approach is to set your stop-loss just below the most recent support level as stated here by Shasta, dragonz, wbosher et al. Such a system will generally outperform even optimised percentage based stoplosses.
If you are running an "end of day" system, you would base your stoploss on the Close of a previous low, and make your exit just before the close on the day it was hit.
If running an intraday system, your stoploss would be based on an intraday low support level, and you would sell immediately this was exceeded - whenever that happened.

For "ordinary" stocks (ie those that are not especially volatile) it is surprising just how often the backtested optimum stoploss value turns out to be 6%. This could perhaps be viewed as a minimum useable value. Very volatile stocks may need a stoploss of >25%! I would suggest that you forget all about such a system and use the more logical, less arbitrary support based system just like most everyone else.

Stoplosses and trailing stops are infinitely better than nothing at all, but I see them as a system for people that don't really have a system.

Larry Williams claimed that any good system does not need a stoploss. I agree. More than that, I have proved time and time again that adding a stoploss to a good, technically sound system results in reduced overall returns.

I agree 100% stoplosses are always seem really great right after your shares take a dive then after the dive you feel stupid for not having stoplosses inplace to then place them 10% below selling prices to then sell your shares at 30 day low then watch as the shares bounce up 30% only days after the smart idea of the stoplosses sells them or thats what just happen to me with STX lucky I only even put half of my holding into the SL

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds219.gif

[Hoop]

well.
looks like the fed have killed this rally. and sparked another sell off.

once again the market strength indicator kept you from getting sucked into this move up.

or am i preaching to the converted. as I now am.

I agree with Bobcat...FTSE in London seems to agree as well as it has forgotten about the FED hike after one hour of trading.:cool:

FTSE fell on opening and bounced ..respecting the key 5280 secondary support level..It is now in positive territory again and confirming that it is climbing out of it's bull market correction...
After one hour the bulls are back in action... 5330 up 5 at this moment .....if the bulls win today it will be 9 up days out of the last 10 trading days ... not bad ..huh? so much for the media gloom and doom with Greece other PI(G)S and rest of Europe in general..

[Dr_Who]

Looks like BOE and ECB are also looking at winding back the stimulus packages. The next stage maybe rates hike end of this year?

[STRAT]

Looks like we are yet again hanging on the word from the Fed. As US reporting has shown to be dubious at best and blatant bull**** at worst I suspect the Fed who has now raised rates will have no qualms about saying its all good and full steam ahead.

My guess is the rally will continue although my chart says the US Markets were undecided on Friday and it could swing either way.

[ratkin]

Ok , be honest everyone , who is actually following Mr Ps chart and will not buy anything until the green arrives?

[sharer]

Ok , be honest everyone , who is actually following Mr Ps chart and will not buy anything until the green arrives?

Well I study Phaedrus's chart & MSI very carefully, & am always very grateful for the long hours & effort he has put in to make it useful for us, not to mention his never failing patience & generosity. I'm also very grateful to Hoop, Strat, AA Winner69 and a number of others who are regularly helpful.
But stupid remarks like Ratkin's post, & it's implied criticism, just induce despair. Any halfwit can see a difference between the MSI/chart covering an index over the whole market (or category) & a similar chart showing trends in some particular company's share price.
Ever considered standing for politics?
Anyone with more than one eye open would have noticed how frequently Phaedrus has responded to polite queries by preparing TA charts for a company & posting it promptly to help someone in their decision making.
Maybe it isn't too late to make a new year resolution to try being polite, or even half reasonable - even with Ratkin's record i believe it is likely P would have kindly posted a TA graph about the share-bauble so blinding him.

[Year of the Tiger]

Ok , be honest everyone , who is actually following Mr Ps chart and will not buy anything until the green arrives?

I don't have the time to suss out any exceptions to the rule just now so I'm just keeping an eye on the general market trend at this stage.

That means, for me at least, keeping my finger away from the "BUY" button.

(Disc. Keeping a keen eye on Phaedrus's charts)

YOTT

[soulman]

I think the rise is more due to good profit reports and outlook than charts etc etc.....

Still, the upside is negligible. Just look at TLS. A stock offering 9% FF div yield currently on offer. A sad stock no one love and it's hard to see a turnaround.

Buying with caution is what P's chart would say now.

[drillfix]

C'mon guys, lets just all drop the P's chart thing, as its totally non productive for everybody.

Most here appreciate P's chart and that is simple and clear.

Here is a pleasant distraction, here is my chart...lol

Simple and make of it what you wish.

http://i47.tinypic.com/mkxbwm.png

I think we will shake the top bollinger band at 4,756 'ish and then probably come back down again. But thats my opinion.

As far as who is in and who is out, well honestly, that depends on your risk, trading or investing strategy.

To have one foot in and out seems to be the logical place to be so you cant be too far wrong either way.

Have wonderful day Ok :)

[ratkin]

Maybe it isn't too late to make a new year resolution to try being polite, or even half reasonable -


Perhaps you should make one , you certainy need to lighten up a little.

My question was i believe a reasonable one. Im just curious to know how many P followers have had the discipline to hold fire on buying . The temptation to start buying on anticipation of a green must be quite tempting to many.

[The Big Ease]

Ok , be honest everyone , who is actually following Mr Ps chart and will not buy anything until the green arrives?

I have taken the MSI into consideration and have not bought into this rather low volume rally.
BOW is what I am looking at and it has rallied from 95 cents to 1.08, but it has been on volume 1/5th of the usualy daily volume. Not what I would consider emphatic and the markets are at teh crossroads. The whole Euro zone looks like coming under pressure and this could have an impact on the general market....or maybe not.

The charts tell me this little bounce of the past week is not particularly strong. The MSI confirms this.

Happy to sit and wait.

[drillfix]

You make a very good point there TBE, one of which I would am inclined to agree with.

If this rally has legs then surely we would see much much more volume.

And even when the News starts saying things like the market is back on track and investors are flocking back in makes me worried.

Of course the market as you know will do what it wants to do, and I am not 100% convinced as yet so therefore I will remain with one foot in and the other in and out for visiting hours only.

To a large degree, I would rather for go a few penny's here and there for the sake of confirmation.

Another thing I have noticed is having signed up to a new platform for realtime today I have been and able to scan faster and get more information presented to make decisions. I have noticed that there are alot and I mean alot of stocks trading either at their support levels or not breaking through resistance. To me this remains and still spells caution.

[STRAT]

Anyone who has done a little buying this month ( I have :eek: ) better keep those stops tight

[drillfix]

Yes, in and out myself here Strat.

Not quite happy or convinced one should be fully into this market, there sure is some trading and buying going though, which, for such a down day one should watch out for profit taking dumps coming towards end of day.

Glad we are still above the 200ma, but not happy the 30ma has crossed the 50ma.

As mentioned previously, I think we could be headed towards the midline BB and failing that then a bounce off the bottom BB.

Here is a chart anyways

http://i46.tinypic.com/no8rwl.png

[dragonz]

Yes, in and out myself here Strat.

Not quite happy or convinced one should be fully into this market, there sure is some trading and buying going though, which, for such a down day one should watch out for profit taking dumps coming towards end of day.

Glad we are still above the 200ma, but not happy the 30ma has crossed the 50ma.

As mentioned previously, I think we could be headed towards the midline BB and failing that then a bounce off the bottom BB.

Here is a chart anyways

http://i46.tinypic.com/no8rwl.png

Nice chart drillfix. Agree with your comments. I like the 10 day SMA and the 30 day EMA crossovers as it tends to give you a slightly earlier exit/entry point to trends if using this for decision making. Apart from this my screening tool for individual stocks has keeped the majority of my capital out of the market at the moment. A treading markets sees few blue chips in an established upward trend. Hope it changes before I wear my fishing tackle out.

[dumbass]

that is a nice chart,there is a bearish candlestick pattern (evening star ) as price has been rejected at the 50 ma, i would say caution is warranted.

[drillfix]

Nice chart drillfix. Agree with your comments. I like the 10 day SMA and the 30 day EMA crossovers as it tends to give you a slightly earlier exit/entry point to trends if using this for decision making. Apart from this my screening tool for individual stocks has keeped the majority of my capital out of the market at the moment. A treading markets sees few blue chips in an established upward trend. Hope it changes before I wear my fishing tackle out.


I use the 10ma for a swing and day trades but scalp with the 8ma or as it has been said by Oliver Velez, catch the 8 train :P

For XAO and the likes, there are many folks whom seem to use a variety to view XAO as Short, Medium, and Long term direction as you know, however looking long by checking out the Weekly still shows some hope so to me its still a bit of a coin toss.

Good money management there dragon, but not like you to be fully out and missing out on a scalp or swing or two hey :)

[drillfix]

Well, what a back flip that was today hey~!

I mean, where does everybody get there news from besides watching the XAO completely Tank at or around midday.

Strat, this is where we need you to draw one of your roller coaster pics on a chart.

In the meantime, here is this. Sheez's wtf.

http://i46.tinypic.com/2cercrn.png

ps: again, Dragonz, mate I one step away from doing what your doing mate~!

[STRAT]

Sure.............................................. .:)

[Jess9]

Storm clouds rolling in and raincoat on, thanks again P : )

[trackers]

Great pic Strat, love it! Nice work resisting temptation in the recent suckers rally Jess9 et al

[evilroyrule]

hi everyone,

i dont have any fancy charts or indeed any sound reasoning. but i think we could finish up this afternoon. i think we have already priced in this fall following our red day yesterday (following dow green). probably wriong, but just thought id put it out there. certainly decent news coming out of nz, pgw, npx et al.

jesus christ this new format is up the wonk. I DID NOT put those smiley little fruckers in my text!!!!!

[trackers]

Hi evilroyrule,

It'd be nice, but its been a long while since asx went green on a dow red... Dow closed down 0.5%, looked like it was going to over 1% down until the last hour.

the smilies are taking over, watch out!

[evilroyrule]

these frickn induced smiles have to go. are we being forced to be nice? even skol is winking at eveyone!

[evilroyrule]

hi everyone,

i dont have any fancy charts or indeed any sound reasoning. but i think we could finish up this afternoon. i think we have already priced in this fall following our red day yesterday (following dow green). probably wriong, but just thought id put it out there. certainly decent news coming out of nz, pgw, npx et al.

jesus christ this new format is up the wonk. I DID NOT put those smiley little fruckers in my text!!!!!

so far so good!

[STRAT]

Have a look at this Roy. DOW / ASX compared over the last 2 years

[soulman]

Hi evilroyrule,

It'd be nice, but its been a long while since asx went green on a dow red... Dow closed down 0.5%, looked like it was going to over 1% down until the last hour.

the smilies are taking over, watch out!

You are forgoting yesterday that the DOW went up nearly 1% and our market drops 1%. So it's just ebbs and flow.

[drillfix]

Folks, I just wish to apologise for some of the charts that I had previously issued here.
(yes the ones that so called look pretty)

Having been trying out a new platform for my TA, I realise that I had entered an 20ma onto the chart, But" that 20ma was 20ma Volume.

I got myself into a swing trade the other day, seen 3 black crows and dumped for a 8% loss due to whatever, and after checking my settings, I could have seen where I should have been out of a trade by also using a 5 and 15 min chart.

The actual charts previously were period MA and not 20 day MA.

Please always take note when observing other peoples charts and never rely on them to make your decisions.

I apologise again and just wish to set any thoughts (should there had been any) set straight.

Cheers~!

[JBmurc]

"... Out of 50 states only 4 are expected to have a balanced budget in 2010. Up to 40 states, including California, New York, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and New Jersey, are virtually bankrupt.

It took almost 200 years for US Federal debt to reach $1 trillion which it did in 1981. In 2009 the debt increased by $1.9 trillion in just that year to $12.4 trillion.

In the next ten years the US debt is forecast to reach $25 trillion.

And this doubling of the debt does not include any funds to prop up a bankrupt financial system or the spending of tens or maybe hundreds of trillions of dollars on worthless OTC derivatives.

The forecast also assumes growth in GDP which is extremely unlikely especially for the next 2-5 years. Currently US Federal debt is six times what it collects in tax revenue every year.

With debt exploding and tax revenues collapsing, there is no chance that the debt can ever be repaid with normal money. Also, with debt out of control interest rates will rise substantially to 10-20% per annum. Applying a 15% interest rate to a $25 trillion debt would give an annual interest bill of $3.75 trillion which would be substantially more than tax revenues.

The chart below shows the US Federal Debt per person. In the last ten years it has gone from $20,000 to $ 40,000. Total US debt, including private and corporate debt as well as unfunded liabilities, comes to $430,000 per individual. It is an absolute certainty that every man, woman and child in the US cannot pay off almost half a million dollars with normal money. Only massive money printing will take care of that.

With these levels of deficits for the next ten years on top of an already massive debt, there is no possibility whatsoever that the US economy can avoid bankruptcy. No country has ever abolished debts of this magnitude by printing paper and the US will not be the first one to succeed either."

[drillfix]

So JB, should that be the case, what type of stocks do you believe will fan out well in such markets, or does the same law of Cash is King still apply?

[JBmurc]

wish I knew drillfix is the million dollar Question IMHO

I really think your common precious metals will be the safest investment-gold,silver,platinum bullion(accepted worldwide as money for thousands of years)

Now what I think could well happen over the decade is the downfall of the USD ,pound,euro even massive crashes in world sharemarkets as credit crunch an commondity hyper-inflation reek havoc till the western world creates a more sound world currency backed by a sound monetary policy

now how these will play out investment ASX wise wish i knew maybe like 2008 GFC we'll see shares in great companies like BHP get sold down to stupid levels as investors panic sell
but like many other good sound companys during hard time's still make very good cashflows as commondites have inflated on the back of a weak USD..
Fact of the matter humans like to consume esp. the yanks without having the money to pay
worldwide humans will need to double food production by 2030(unlikely without huge hikes)
energy&oil demand will increase many millions of bbl oil per day
world population living standards will without doubt drop dramatically

Everything I've watched listen an read of late shows how much worse off the USA economy is to the late 1920's

The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression in the decade preceding World War II. The timing of the Great Depression varied across nations, but in most countries it started in about 1929 and lasted until the late 1930s or early 1940s.[1] It was the longest, most widespread, and deepest depression of the 20th century, and is used in the 21st century as an example of how far the world's economy can decline.[2] The depression originated in the United States, starting with the stock market crash of October 29, 1929 (known as Black Tuesday), but quickly spread to almost every country in the world.[1]

The Great Depression had devastating effects in virtually every country, rich and poor. Personal income, tax revenue, profits and prices dropped, and international trade plunged by a half to two-thirds. Unemployment in the United States rose to 25%, and in some countries rose as high as 33%.[3] Cities all around the world were hit hard, especially those dependent on heavy industry. Construction was virtually halted in many countries. Farming and rural areas suffered as crop prices fell by approximately 60 percent.[4][5][6] Facing plummeting demand with few alternate sources of jobs, areas dependent on primary sector industries such as cash cropping, mining and logging suffered the most.[7]

Countries started to recover by the mid-1930s, but in many countries the negative effects of the Great Depression lasted until the start of World War II.

[JBmurc]

Countries such as China, which had a silver standard, almost avoided the depression entirely in the 30's

-China will collapse Gold and Silver Derivatives
China has opened up gold to its public to allow them to protect their wealth, America discourages public investment in gold, China may back out of derivative contracts, traps and uncertainty remain for any actions, Turn your ETF into physical now,

In 2009, China opened up various exchanges for investment in both gold and silver to the Chinese public, who previously were not allowed to invest in gold and silver. The opening of silver exchanges to the Chinese public is the most recent development and was accompanied by a ban on silver exports. The Chinese government is actively touting both gold and silver as an investment to the Chinese public, and with good reason. The yuan, like the dollar and virtually all other paper currencies, with the exception of the euro, are one hundred percent fiat currencies backed by absolutely nothing but government promises which aren't worth the powder to blow them to hell. Even the euro's gold backing is pathetic at best. Initially it was a respectable 15%, but the backing is probably now about half of that due to Washington Agreement gold sales and surreptitious gold leasing.

[shasta]

So JB, should that be the case, what type of stocks do you believe will fan out well in such markets, or does the same law of Cash is King still apply?

Unless oil trends higher, my focus would be on silver, gold, precious metals & nickel for 2010 & 2011

Too early for U308 & REE's just yet

[evilroyrule]

im kinda wishing i was on the sidelines too. just waiting for a little puff of air to hop out. man, china going nuts tonight. up 1.6%+

[JBmurc]

im kinda wishing i was on the sidelines too. just waiting for a little puff of air to hop out. man, china going nuts tonight. up 1.6%+

only prob is so is the rest of the market my direct an indirect holdings I'm looking at selling down will be north of 3mill so I really hope for some real bullish news for the world market march/April/may or at least no real negative news
Quite noticeable how weak any buying of the jnr sectors has been of late STX for one announced a new discovery shares went to 32c to now only days later be back round 25c on little volume

[evilroyrule]

yes the volume is pathetic which is why im not too bothered about the fall of stx, hzn, etc. roc on the other hand big volume, but sh choppy i thought it had been taken over by day traders today. it looks a little bit like everyone just waiting and watching. i did think this presented good buying. now im not so sure and am convinced the world might well **** itself. i knew i shld have finished that bunker in the back garden. i suspect jb you may well have one.

[Jess9]

An odd market at the moment. O/S indicies have had several good "green" days but many of the more lucrative ASX stocks (gold, oilers, CSG's) I watch are just grinding lower each time. Strange divergence. What gives 1st??? Still all out.

[drillfix]

--there will be another market crash debt based later this year IMHO

wish I knew drillfix is the million dollar Question IMHO

I really think your common precious metals will be the safest investment-gold,silver,platinum bullion(accepted worldwide as money for thousands of years)

Countries started to recover by the mid-1930s, but in many countries the negative effects of the Great Depression lasted until the start of World War II.


Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this JB.

Although, can you also share your thoughts on this:

1. Earlier in this thread, there were a couple of others whom also said there would be a crash this year. Initially such dialogue rises due to some INO video post warning of such gloom.
Problem is though, when people do this, they usually swing and hit the ball and get to first base, and then try to claim a Home Run without actually describing the other side of the coin being:

a: What interventions could take place to lighten such fall, will or could it be implemented globally
b: Other instruments that shine (as you have mentioned JB) in place of refuge for investors or traders.

Adding to this, when people talk of Global Recession to the 1930's, they forget to compare and include the modern differences.
People whom talk of such subject (doom) seem to completely fail the compare the if the same thing happened, would it be different?? My answer is yes it would.

My reasoning is,
We live in the Digital Age with both Real and Virtual, which has many benefits over our 1930 counterparts.
We live in a era of better medical, transportation, technology etc etc.
I could go on and on with comparisons, but I also could easily agree the about some type of Depression if global markets should or happen to collapse.

So if suddenly there is no money left for anybody to use, what are they going to do, cut off all the power to everybody's home? I dont think so.
Back then did folks from the 1930's with only a slice of bread and water suddenly decide to do what we would do, Have a slice of bread, water, tea and kick back to chill out to watch a DVD on our 52" LCD tv....LOL ?? Or how about if a crash happens, perhaps people stop trading markets and start playing Online games or WOW on their home networks with their neighbours??

I dont quite see the hardship of the 1930's, like it would or could be in Twenty 10's, The list goes on and on and yet people whom talk of this 1930's seem to believe and sound like the world is ending, when in fact, it isn't.

Now JB, please note what I have wrote and by no means is that soley directed to you, but more so, it is directed to those whom have previously spoke of similar 1930's great depression talk but also fail to state there is a big difference talking about it and using it to Reference from.

Plus INO forum, market club guy whom only states the obvious bad without actually given any Potentials to what could intervene to buffer such disasters.

ie: Look what the Oz Labour Gov, did they buffered it by stimulous, it did work, for Australia that is. But was that seen prior to the GFC??

Like a stochastic indicator, somebody will ADD smoothing to it to take edge off ( a little ) if we sense it is potentially near.

Again, this post is not aimed at you, but more so the subject matter. Being the differences to the 1930's and some of the unspoken unknown variables which are left out of from Dooms Sayers talk.


add edit:

Another part of unspoken dialogue is, what would be the Social impact should a depression come???

I kinda see it something like Back to the Future II
Where Biff goes back and steals the Sports Omniac and changes the world so when Marty comes back All Hell has broken loose, I wonder will it be like that perhaps????

Or will everybody that does not fully own their house outright be kicked out and evicted and there will be millions and millions of families, children, people walking the streets homeless in search for a nice soup kitchen, while all these empty houses are taken over by squatters whom never own a house in the first place??? Or will there be gangs and gang sectors whereby Mafia and new formations of underground society whom control territories by means of force???

So much unspoken dialogue on such a huge subject.



Last edit:

After writing this, I check my email and get this link from INO: http://free.ino.com/accept/170B75/37394236.htm

The depression must have started now because when I go there I get this message: Our apologies, this free offer has been discontinued.

Either they are reading this, or times are getting harder by the minute or by the time we write something. Maybe this is the new way of the world...LOL

[JBmurc]

a: What interventions could take place to lighten such fall, will or could it be implemented globally

well I think the biggest problem worldwide is the creation of easy money, low interest rates ,free bailouts of failed companies ,the shrinking of world deverites (deverites market which almost bought the world banking industry down like 1929. Was out outlawed about 80 years ago and in 2000. Congress and Bill Clinton pass a law that allow it to happen again.)
-cause really the only way the yanks,poms etc can get out of their current massive dept problems is to print more money an create alot more inflation with easy leading which in turn help those in dept but hurt's the savers of fiat moneys(the worse place I believe you could be is in Fiat money long term)
Of course larger USD holders don't want to see their dollar holding lose value through inflation unless they are getting high rates of returns through higher rates.(this why India converted USD into Gold bullion an why China an others are doing the same why hold so much dollars if the owners are printing trillions for free)


b: Other instruments that shine (as you have mentioned JB) in place of refuge for investors or traders.

really any real assets will do better IMHO than holding cash at the bank longer term in the short term having some cash on the sidelines to get some cheap real assets would be a smart move- commodities at the right price
-highly volatile markets -


really it's worth watching some UTUBE clips with-Jim rogers,peter schiff,marc faber all these guys are very wealthy smart investors that have called many events before they happen they are all very gloomy on the way the western world is heading



We live in the Digital Age with both Real and Virtual, which has many benefits over our 1930 counterparts.
We live in a era of better medical, transportation, technology etc etc.
I could go on and on with comparisons, but I also could easily agree the about some type of Depression if global markets should or happen to collapse

which also means western humans are becoming more stupid as they believe media over fact's
how many western humans know how to grow food, catch fish ,home kill stock etc etc
studies show modern humans are on average becoming more stupid esp some groups that live in the cities
crime in the 1930's compared to the new western world has become far far worse now
technology can also work against populations-counterfeit money Internet bank scams(the germans tired to flood the UK with pounds to hurt their economony during ww2) etc etc
Family conditions are become far worse in the tech age with both parents having to work just to pay the bills unlike in the past where only the family man would work an could buy home on few yrs income unlike today highly inflated property to imcomes here in NZ.




Or will everybody that does not fully own their house outright be kicked out and evicted and there will be millions and millions of families, children, people walking the streets homeless in search for a nice soup kitchen, while all these empty houses are taken over by squatters whom never own a house in the first place??? Or will there be gangs and gang sectors whereby Mafia and new formations of underground society whom control territories by means of force???

well property could well go down rent an yields of property could well fall like they did in Germany in the 20's

Inflation of building costs V's unemployment -wealth destruction

[drillfix]

Thanks again JB, its always great to gain more perspective with further dialogue on such subejects.

Oh and yes, do occasionally drop in to have a listen to JR from time to time.

Cheers again.

[Hoop]

Closed today 4710

4600 busted..................... 16th February...first sign the bull market correction could have ended.
4600 tested and respected..25th February...second sign..confirmation
4700 busted......................2 March.......... break out of 7 week downtrend..another confirmation
Next confirmation.... breaking the short term resistance 4733....Tomorrow Wednesday ??
If you round up the 4733 to 4740 it breaks upwards through the MA50 line as well.
Its time to pay attention again folks the index is flirting with some key points.

5000 end of March?.... has to be a good bet if it cracks the 4740

Edit: The US$ is in a cyclic bull market cycle and it has reached its second bull market correction due point at 81. This forecasted temporary fall back of the US$ would aid the rise of equity/commodity (incl oil) markets down-under.

[The Big Ease]

ftse with a v.big day 1.45% up.
if the dow follows phaedrus' chart might turn grey at the very least.

[Jess9]

Gold up $18 oz, through $1,125 as well...

[Jess9]

Hi TBE. Interesting to me that we are not seeing any rally on DOW. It's UP, but 0.29% as at 7.40am. Still tail end of the sucker rally?? If so maybe an opp to sell any remaining stocks.

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds33.gif

[Jess9]

Nice tweak (labels) on the MSI.

[evilroyrule]

well now, i see mac phaddy's dow chart gone dark green. what do we all make of that? personally im broke anyway, but will any of you now launch back in????

ps. doc dont reply. i knw you been buying all the way down!

[Hoop]

Closed today 4710

4600 busted..................... 16th February...first sign the bull market correction could have ended.
4600 tested and respected..25th February...second sign..confirmation
4700 busted......................2 March.......... break out of 7 week downtrend..another confirmation
Next confirmation.... breaking the short term resistance 4733....Tomorrow Wednesday ??
If you round up the 4733 to 4740 it breaks upwards through the MA50 line as well.
Its time to pay attention again folks the index is flirting with some key points.

5000 end of March?.... has to be a good bet if it cracks the 4740

Edit: The US$ is in a cyclic bull market cycle and it has reached its second bull market correction due point at 81. This forecasted temporary fall back of the US$ would aid the rise of equity/commodity (incl oil) markets down-under.

4747 as I post...got to be looking good....maybe a hint of green shortly.

[Phaedrus]

4747 as I post...got to be looking good....maybe a hint of green shortly.4736 or higher will do it, Hoop.

[Footsie]

we may now our buy signal again people