Bottom or bear rally?

[drillfix]

ROLF Strat, :D

So this is how you spend your time with your PreMarket opens :p

[trackers]

Love the charts as usual Strat, and agree!!

Geez that poor train driver looks terrified, glad the passengers can't see him

[STRAT]

glad the passengers can't see himThat would be us, eh? :eek:

I should point out to all that I am well and truely on board that train and everything I do is reactive. I was not attempting to make a prediction on where the market is going in the posting of those charts. Their primary purpose was for a laugh.

[Phaedrus]

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AllOrds1015.gif

[STRAT]

Thanks Phaedrus.

[troyvdh]

..as an aside am I correct...in previous years/decades havent folk ...when approaching October .....voiced with great passion/insight voiced the opinion to be careful as most market corrections/retreats occured in October...?????....am now confused...again...

[airedale]

Yes you are probably right,Troy, but this year has been a most unusual year.:confused:

[contrarianinvestor]

This article (http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/shares-unlikely-to-rebound-this-year-20090301-8l7w.html) appeared in the SMH on 1 March 2009. It makes a good study of investor myopia at bear market lows.

[Hoop]

With the market looking toppy and the media + me exclaiming another bull market correction is due ...is everyone looking worried???

VIX the volatility Index and dubbed the "fear index" says the Americans aren't that worried....that's good news :D.

Even when the last correction occurred the index was high so on the whole they worried but the worry was downtrending so they weren't that worried as to panic either. Obviously most believed (and hoped) the worst was over by June 2009 and that it was just a correction..they were right.

Looking at the VIX it kinda makes you wonder where the phrase Bull market phase 2 ..Climbing the Wall of Worry" comes from.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/VIX22102009.png

[mark100]

Thanks for that chart Hoop. Would you mind posting a 5 year VIX chart?

[Stranger_Danger]

Looks more like a slope of hope to me.

Time will tell.

[contrarianinvestor]

I'm a big believer that the market does the exact opposite to what people expect
To prove your point - just go to the start of this thread and see all the expectations of further price declines that prevailed in March.

[Hoop]

Thanks for that chart Hoop. Would you mind posting a 5 year VIX chart?

Hi Mark100
No a can't do a 5year chart on the freebie Stockchart but this is the next best thing 2 charts 2001-2003 and 2004-2006. Note the scale is different on each chart.

The interesting thing is the 2004-2006 VIX has very low VIX index levels its normal for the cycle but paradoxical as after the inverted H&S formation was completely there was a medium term downtrend (8 months) within the cyclic bull market but it produced no investor fear. The DOW moved nowhere much (very slight upswards trend overall for 2 years 2004 to 2005 then resumed a sharper uptrend in 2006 paradoxically with an increase in the VIX.
I have included the DOW chart so to compare with the VIX charts. As you can see history repeats itself the 2001- 2002 high VIX levels corresponded with the Bear market and its double bottom crash...to the recent 2008-early 2009 Bear market single crash.

Basically what I'm saying is the VIX index is low during cyclic Bull markets and high during cyclic Bear Markets. This is another piece of compelling evidence that we are presently in a cyclic Bull market cycle

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/VIX2004-2007.png

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/VIX2001-2004.png

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW2000-2009.png

[Hoop]

To prove your point - just go to the start of this thread and see all the expectations of further price declines that prevailed in March.

At the start of the thread you would have seen that lonely voice amongst the doom and Gloom on page 1 Post#14 (18th March 2009) saying....

Hoop quote..."The bottom been reached ..bull market cycle starting"

:D:cool::cool:

Yep and yours is there too Contrarianinvestor page 3 Post #42 (21 March 2009)

Quote..."It is very interesting to see all the opinions. Since most people at this point in time think that the market will go further down, I'll stand by my contrarian user name i.e. we are probably already at the start of a very strong bull market!

Geez it was lonely back then..most thought we were nuts.:eek:

[wbosher]

Geez it was lonely back then..most thought we were nuts.:eek:

Most probably didn't make as money as you. ;) Myself included unfortunately. :(

[STRAT]

my feeling is a significant bottom is in place for the first wave of a three wave bear market.
the second wave (b wave) will retrace by possibly 50 % before the third wave moves the market back down.
This is how the time component of a decline works. the market can not just keep going down but it is years away from a new bull market , so.........
down , up , down .
we are now entering the up bit , will be swift ride to dow 10000 + then back down to 6500 or lowerHeres another post from back then by a smart cookie and worth considering. You were all braver than I back then I must confess.

[Phaedrus]

There is no need to make "calls". All you have to do is monitor the market closely and react appropriately as trends evolve.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds1023.gif

I will be going on holiday for 10 days (seeking warmer weather) so no more charts from me for a while.

[STRAT]

Thanks Phaedrus.

No need perhaps but it us fun.
Warmer weather? I got sun burn in Auckland today :o

[winner69]

ASX200 made gains again last week - and conti ued the rise that started mid March

ASX might start the week slightly weaker but with the banks due to start reporting later in the week which should be good news I'd expect another good week on the ASX as it heads to its next logical point of 5000 ... still a little way to go but not far off

As Phaedrus says dont make calls - just moniter the market

[jdg]

potentially big news tomorrow with US third quarter GDP data to be released. most are picking annualised growth of around 3.5%. if those expectations are met (or exceeded), the market will respond particularly well, i would have thought. certainly a good signal that the worst is well and truly over. if they come up short we may be in for a tough time. all eyes on the DOW overnight.

-j

[winner69]

Last few days action on the ASX might have foreced Phaedrus into using a lighter colour of green (buy with caution) ... not quite the cyan yet

Bank's news have been really great this week but global sentiment has over ridden that

Just keep a close eye on things .... as jdg says tomorrows another day and things could fly again

[Hoop]

potentially big news tomorrow with US third quarter GDP data to be released. most are picking annualised growth of around 3.5%. if those expectations are met (or exceeded), the market will respond particularly well, i would have thought. certainly a good signal that the worst is well and truly over. if they come up short we may be in for a tough time. all eyes on the DOW overnight.

-j

News is short term secondary factors. ..and the market short-term trends are governed by the majority group investor behaviour at any given point in time....
How often do you see paradoxical logic..such as what has just witnessed..The US news has been excellent The equity markets have been rising for 7 months, this good news should see the continuation of the rise up...nope wrong!
Why???... because deep down our gut instinct is telling us the market is getting overheated so we'll plan to sell down on the good news ahead of the rest of the pack...unfortunately the majority of the rest of the pack had the same idea.

Yeah good economic news may happen tomorrow and we are due for a bounce after the rapid fall ...more good news...half of the "perceived" Bull market correction has already happened.. so probably no point selling tommorrow therefore less selling pressure...maybe next week who knows....

Quote from Crestmont Research..."The stock market is not highly correlated to economic growth".

[winner69]

Quote from Crestmont Research..."The stock market is not highly correlated to economic growth".

Like the bear market from 1966-1981 when the Dow went nowhere (was actually negative) was one of the robust periods of US economic growth ... and then the 90's being the worst decade for economic growth since WW2 was the best decade ever for US equities

Its all about market valuations eh Hoop .... PE expansion or contraction ... not so much whats happening in the economy

[h2so4]

News is short term secondary factors. ..and the market short-term trends are governed by the majority group investor behaviour at any given point in time....
How often do you see paradoxical logic..such as what has just witnessed..The US news has been excellent The equity markets have been rising for 7 months, this good news should see the continuation of the rise up...nope wrong!
Why???... because deep down our gut instinct is telling us the market is getting overheated so we'll plan to sell down on the good news ahead of the rest of the pack...unfortunately the majority of the rest of the pack had the same idea.

Yeah good economic news may happen tomorrow and we are due for a bounce after the rapid fall ...more good news...half of the "perceived" Bull market correction has already happened.. so probably no point selling tommorrow therefore less selling pressure...maybe next week who knows....



Up .....down.....repeat until crazy.:eek:

[soulman]

This is overdue though. I had a gut feeling that when the banks start to report that the market will corrects or more appropriately, the banks will correct. They were excessively overvalued, with the big 4 and 2 regionals seemingly flying high at their own will.

Hence, this will bring the miners down as well. The market just can't go up in straight line so here's a blip.

[contrarianinvestor]

At the start of the thread you would have seen that lonely voice amongst the doom and Gloom on page 1 Post#14 (18th March 2009) saying....

Hoop quote..."The bottom been reached ..bull market cycle starting"

:D:cool::cool:

Yep and yours is there too Contrarianinvestor page 3 Post #42 (21 March 2009)

Quote..."It is very interesting to see all the opinions. Since most people at this point in time think that the market will go further down, I'll stand by my contrarian user name i.e. we are probably already at the start of a very strong bull market!

Geez it was lonely back then..most thought we were nuts.:eek:

Let's enjoy the euphoria for being right while it lasts. Next time our predictions will probably turn out to be dead wrong!

[Hoop]

Like the bear market from 1966-1981 when the Dow went nowhere (was actually negative) was one of the robust periods of US economic growth ... and then the 90's being the worst decade for economic growth since WW2 was the best decade ever for US equities

Its all about market valuations eh Hoop .... PE expansion or contraction ... not so much whats happening in the economy

Yep Winner you're spot on....a proven fact. Ask most people what is the primary factor that drives the share market and I'll bet you the PE factor would be not be at the top of their list. ...I blame this on the Media influence...media can be a bad teacher...eh.


contrarianinvestor quote ...."Let's enjoy the euphoria for being right while it lasts. Next time our predictions will probably turn out to be dead wrong!"

Looking at my portfolio over the last 3 days I kinda wished my latest prediction was wrong. :(:p I decided a few weeks ago to mostly ride out this next correction..Mrs Hoop is looking at me in a certain way that would suggest that being dead wrong this time would not be good for my health... I suspect the "dead" part would not be a figure of speech.

[JBmurc]

Yep Winner you're spot on....a proven fact. Ask most people what is the primary factor that drives the share market and I'll bet you the PE factor would be not be at the top of their list. ...I blame this on the Media influence...media can be a bad teacher...eh.


contrarianinvestor quote ...."Let's enjoy the euphoria for being right while it lasts. Next time our predictions will probably turn out to be dead wrong!"

Looking at my portfolio over the last 3 days I kinda wished my latest prediction was wrong. :(:p I decided a few weeks ago to mostly ride out this next correction..Mrs Hoop is looking at me in a certain way that would suggest that being dead wrong this time would not be good for my health... I suspect the "dead" part would not be a figure of speech.



yeah think I'm down round 25k today
--portfilo high only days ago over 10x today loss for the last 6 months
thing is most shares held are far from being overvalued fundamentally just seems to be a broad move to take profits form the market on the back of the negative US markets of late.
-What I'd love to know is-
Will this be a blip on the recovery higher on the back of the ever increasing world demand for commodities as an ever increasing population's of westernizing developing countries.
or
An even worst market down-turn on tipped by commercial property meltdown in the US throwing the world markets into freefall..
or
something in between.

[Dr_Who]

I took the opportunity to buy some cheap shares yesterday. I am glade I did. There are some cheap stocks out there, you just have to seek them out.

[mattyroo]

I took the opportunity to buy some cheap shares yesterday. I am glade I did. There are some cheap stocks out there, you just have to seek them out.

Me too, picked up another 40k STX with a lowball bid that I wasn't expecting to get hit. Have also grabbed some more BUL and a bit of a speculative dab at NDO at 11 cents.

Am expecting there will be more of these opportunities to load up on some decent medium term growth stocks in the next little while.

[STRAT]

Me too, picked up another 40k STX with a lowball bid that I wasn't expecting to get hit. Have also grabbed some more BUL and a bit of a speculative dab at NDO at 11 cents.

Am expecting there will be more of these opportunities to load up on some decent medium term growth stocks in the next little while.
Hi Mattyroo,
Did you get them at 18c? :D

[mattyroo]

No. 19c, 18c would've been bloody good buying.

[JBmurc]

me rant for the day.....

going get smashed on Monday he's me looking at 100+ futures on the DOW late yesterday to 249p fall

think I might go buy some more silver bullion seems to be the safest option if the US crashes hard which looks MORE likely NOW..

Time to short some shares me thinks..

Consumer Spending the prop for the good 3rd QTR growth can't keep printing money for too much longer...

U.S. economy seems to be out of the recession/ depression ?? T/A wise
Fundamentally not at all.......

Am bullish commondites but not US markets which seem to affects all world markets like sheep....so sell good real asset companies??

USD strengthens then sharemarkets an OIL etc get hammered but the USD is screwed any which way>so bullish real assets then

Asia the new mass consumers (U308 wise china 100+ new nuclear plants planned)see any forward predictions of resources quite clearly shows more demand with less new large finds to supply need just checkout copper demand 2014+




Wilbur Ross Sees ‘Huge’ Commercial Real Estate Crash (Update3)
Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A By John Gittelsohn and Thomas R. Keene

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor Wilbur L. Ross Jr., said today the U.S. is in the beginning of a “huge crash in commercial real estate.”

“All of the components of real estate value are going in the wrong direction simultaneously,” said Ross, one of nine money managers participating in a government program to remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets. “Occupancy rates are going down. Rent rates are going down and the capitalization rate -- the return that investors are demanding to buy a property -- are going up.”

U.S. commercial property sales are forecast to fall to the lowest in almost two decades as the industry endures its worst slump since the savings and loan crisis of the early 1990s, according to property research firm Real Capital Analytics Inc. The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices already have fallen almost 41 percent since October 2007, Moody’s Investors Service said Oct. 19.

Billionaire George Soros, speaking today at a lecture organized by the Central European University in Budapest, said a “bloodletting” may be coming for leveraged buyouts and commercial real estate.

“The American consumer will no longer be able to serve as the motor for the world economy,” said Soros, 79.

His comments came in the same week that Capmark Financial Group Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after originating $60 billion in commercial property loans in 2006 and 2007.

‘Extreme Caution’

Ross, the 71-year-old chairman and chief executive officer of WL Ross & Co. LLC, said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio that he would use “extreme caution” before putting money into commercial real estate, especially office space, because properties are losing tenants.

U.S. office vacancies hit a five-year high of almost 17 percent in the third quarter, while shopping center vacancies climbed to their highest since 1992, according to the property research firm Reis Inc.

“I think it’s going to take quite a while to work itself out,” Ross said.

As of Oct. 15, Ross said he had spent less than $100 million of at least $1.5 billion available to him under the Public-Private Investment Program, an investment pool of private and government money for purchasing distressed assets from financial institutions.

Ross used the funds he spent so far to purchase residential mortgage-backed securities, he said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Corus Investment

WL Ross was among a group of firms that agreed Oct. 6 to buy $4.5 billion of Corus Bankshares Inc.’s real estate. Starwood Capital Group LLC and TPG led the group to buy the assets of the Chicago-based lender, which was seized by federal regulators Sept. 11 after its investments in construction loans for condominiums went bad.

In 2007, Ross ventured into the declining residential property market, winning an auction for the home-loan servicing unit of Melville, New York-based American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. He agreed to pay between $435 million and $500 million for the right to collect payments and maintain escrow on about $45.3 billion of home mortgages.

Making Lists

Dubbed the King of Bankruptcy by clients during his quarter century at the Rothschild investment bank, Ross entered the U.S. home mortgage business as an increasing number of borrowers quit making payments and profits sank in loan servicing.

“Our methodology is to make a great big list: What’s every thing we can think of that’s either wrong with the industry or that we just plain don’t like about it,” Ross said today.

“Then we start work on another list. If we had control of this industry, what would we do to fix each one of those problems?” he said. “Once we feel that there is a reasonable likelihood that the second chart kind of equals the first chart, that’s when we get ready to do something.”

[Dr_Who]

Will be interesting to see the Myers listing on monday.

It may get a thrashing!

[drillfix]

There was this bit on the news the other night about how it was 3 months and 3 days from the March low to the start of the June correction, and again, another 3 months and 3 days from the July low to this correction. Spooky!


KW, I also watched that news a couple nights ago on ABC stating those exact words.

Although, personally speaking I would use the word "Orchestrated" rather than spooky, IMO.

Orchestrated by whom some may say. Well, by the market makers and takers, again IMO.

[bermuda]

A lot of commentators out there are talking of a healthy November correction.

At the same time they are saying that the world economy is improving, albeit slowly, ( and with USA unemployment not yet to peak until mid 2010.)

Guess we just have to live with it.

In the meantime the first FEED approval for Gladstone CSG gets nearer.

[dumbass]

wake up strat!

A little bit of a history lesson, i know its not everyones cup of tea to gain insight from events that took place many moons ago because this time its 'different'. As we have the internet , drivatives , black boxes , hedge funds blah blah.
Human emotions dont change though and how markets have reacted in the past when confronted with similar market conditions is very relevant.


From the year 1929 there have only been three bear markets with this type of price destruction: 1973-1974 (47%), 1937-1942 (53%), and 1929-1932 (89%). The last one was a Supercycle bear market, and the other two were Cycle wave bear markets.

1929: started with a 50% crash drop, retraced 50%, and then eroded for months on end to much lower levels, took 34 months.

1937: started with a 50% drop over 12 months, with a 40% crash in the middle, retraced 62%, and then eroded for months on end to a double bottom, took 61 months.

1973: started quitely, had a 62% retracement after the first drop, then crashed 33% near the end, and the market lost a total of 47%, took 23 months.


I believe the most relevant information applicable to where we are at right at this moment , is the abilty for a market to retrace a significant amount in the midst of a bear market.
It has always done it before.

it sounds a crazy thing to say but im picking a market rally to at least 9500 but more likely 10500
The more you guys think im nuts, the more confidence i have in my counterintuitive postion,
as i have history on my side.

But this rally will end and the market will crash again to complete the bear market however im looking at the trading direction for next 6 months or so and im applying my normal ta analysis from the long side for the first time in a long time.

Thought it was time to revisit this post from March but i thought i would sneak it in on a Sunday morning while everyone is sleeping as most of you should disagree with this post or i will most likely be wrong.
Targets are now reached and there is a high chance the third wave of the bear market is upon us, which will at a minimum retest the market lows but most likely will exceed them.
Market has turned on no particular bad news as it often does, but more that technical levels have been hit and sentiment has registered an extreme reading in a certain direction, obviously bullish in this case.
Technical data backs this up with The put/call ratio hitting its highest daily level since Nov 08, the advance/decline ratio topped with a negative divergence, and the UP/DN volume hit its highest weekly level since 2000.
As the market has shifted into decline mode other sectors are now confirming the move lower eg semiconductor, banking , housing etc and it is noted everyones favourite index when things turn to custard, the VIX is trending higher and just put in its biggest daily move in 5 years.

the weekly chart shows a potential down trendline and divergence on RSI which has happened at all the major waves.
In this rally wave A is identical to length C.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/t1s4olib.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=t1s4olib.jpg)

There is a lot of confirmation from shorter time frame charts as well but aware that bear markets have lots of twists and turns and the market could put a new high in from here but i think at this stage this seems unlikely.
i think it prudent to trade from the short side but with usual discipline and there will be plenty of opportunity to load up on some heavilly geared short trades.

[JBmurc]

Yes am glutted I did sell down alot my portfolio on Friday have a third of my portfolio up for sale on Monday at limited prices which more than likely will be to high to sell ...

only shares I'm going to hold onto is CFE,IRN,PEN,MPO,TRY basically Gold,silver,copper,U308,energy

Think we'll see the USD strenghting increase T-bills etc in the short term to then be sent up for a massive fall early next year...

Gold will continue to fight the USD strenght on the back of buying of gold and basically go nowhere till early next year

Oil will follow the markets down

thats my sunny sunday morn predictions

think we need a poll setup

[evilroyrule]

im tempted to sit and ride this out, but they to me even sound like famous last words! as a correction, what are the soothsayers predicting in terms of how long this leg down will last? in any event i think it will be ugly on open and might wait and see what the afternoon brings. JB im hoping the likes of IRN and CFE will maintain fairly steady support close to where they currently sit. still, market and common sense arent the best of friends. good luck to all.

[Dr_Who]

I am waiting for the market to bottom out and it will be an opportunity for me to load up more shares.

As long as those central banks around the world continue to keep interest rates low, we will see the markets hold up. There are still a number of good firms out there that give much higher div than bank retail rates.

[Grand Uber]

I got out of my CFE last week at 49.5 when I noticed a change in the trading pattern, and it failed to break above 53.5. I think 50 cents will be the level it will return quite quickly so I will be considering re-entry depending on the stage of overselling it reaches (anything in the 30's would be a no brainer). Tony Sage and the complicated nature of the business make me nervous about serious long term investment.

Evilroyrule if you intend to hold through a potential correction then you should have no reason to log on and look at the shareprices :D If I had done that with some of my stocks last year I would have been alot better off for it, its the colour red that affects my judgement.

[evilroyrule]

hi GU,

im glad that so many senior traders are posting on this topic today, it certainly helps.

i got out of most my shares last week incl cue, leaving me just with hzn, cfe and irn to settle another tranasction.

i believe in those stocks and their long term prospects. plus i dont want to sell into a frenzy when tuesday could be up? its completely irrational and unpredictable out there. the only bad news i can discern is the worry about wether the US economy can keep it up, not that it hasnt performed, but can it keep. Plus Oct. notorious fluctuating month in the US. I got no idea where its heading. Could shortsell on CFE and IRN but im just not convinced that into Mondays bloodbath is the right time!! Openings on a monday following the news on friday tend to be bad, given everyone has spent the weekend worrying about their shares and breaking the news to their partners!

for now, im going to wait and watch. cant help but feel a little excited at the opportunity to pick up some bargain stocks before xmas.

ps. forgot to add good point about loggin on. i am hoplessly addicted to watching my shares but you are right. when i see a bad move down my impulse is to consider selling, forgetting all reason for entering in the first place. i might take your advice on that tomorrow and check in after work. after the rain comes sun. after the down will be a new up.

[JBmurc]

hi GU,

im glad that so many senior traders are posting on this topic today, it certainly helps.

i got out of most my shares last week incl cue, leaving me just with hzn, cfe and irn to settle another tranasction.

i believe in those stocks and their long term prospects. plus i dont want to sell into a frenzy when tuesday could be up? its completely irrational and unpredictable out there. the only bad news i can discern is the worry about wether the US economy can keep it up, not that it hasnt performed, but can it keep. Plus Oct. notorious fluctuating month in the US. I got no idea where its heading. Could shortsell on CFE and IRN but im just not convinced that into Mondays bloodbath is the right time!! Openings on a monday following the news on friday tend to be bad, given everyone has spent the weekend worrying about their shares and breaking the news to their partners!

for now, im going to wait and watch. cant help but feel a little excited at the opportunity to pick up some bargain stocks before xmas.

ps. forgot to add good point about loggin on. i am hoplessly addicted to watching my shares but you are right. when i see a bad move down my impulse is to consider selling, forgetting all reason for entering in the first place. i might take your advice on that tomorrow and check in after work. after the rain comes sun. after the down will be a new up.

--yeah as a tax paying trader I'm more worried about missing out on buying the same shares cheaper as I really think the US market are going to spook the ASX badly in the NOV-DEC

But if I was still a non-tax paying Investor with a long term outlook I wouldn't be selling ...

[Footsie]

at this stage, it looks like a correction. dont second guess too early.

a correction would take the form of 2-3 weeks of decline.... sharp down
then level out at 15% from the oct highs.

time to buy is IF we then start to rally after a period of consolidation..

No rush to buy, but im not panicking out.

unlike the start of 2008, not holding any sh1te in the p/f this time.

but i am braced for impact and a few scary days...

as someone else said, while rates are at zero and liquidity is awash... there will be plenty of money for the market.
Bernake will keep his printing press running and Obama will do anything to ensure we dont have another collapse.
going to create massive problems in the future. but inflation will sort that out

[Hoop]

--yeah as a tax paying trader I'm more worried about missing out on buying the same shares cheaper as I really think the US market are going to spook the ASX badly in the NOV-DEC

But if I was still a non-tax paying Investor with a long term outlook I wouldn't be selling ...

Yes JB I'm also a tax paying trader...like you I worried about whether to sell and buy back cheaper...This time I'm riding the Bull and hopefully it doesn't turn out to be a bear I'm riding.
Why?
Remember the last Bull correction that lasted a month during June/July 2009 ..I took the "sell - buy back cheaper" option and it didn't work.

The ASX dropped 7% overall but the first fall was so fast the market had already dropped 4% and my shares which were more volatile had fallen about 6-10% before I ditched them. I watched the market like a hawk the day the short term downtrend line broke back up I jumped in with buy orders and missed ..I chased the shares back up and finally got back in at a slightly higher price than I sold them for....the winner of this exercise? ..the brokers

OK 7% wasn't a big bull correction and this current Bull correction (maybe a bear who knows for sure?) could be larger say 10%...however if you sell Monday morning after the expect 2% crunch opening, the ASX by then would have dropped 6% of this correction already....so really if you sell monday morning you would only be winning if the Bull correction is abnormally big say 15% or if Dumbass's and the other Elliot wave followers predictions come true and in which case the the cyclic bull dies a premature death, and a sharp bear cycle commences.and I'm outa here:eek:.

I've been mucking around with end of bull cycle indicators this weekend and I can't see any major warning signs... yet!... just the usual trending shifts associated with normal short term downtrends. Also DOW theory says investors are all overpositive (bubbling) and most are in denial when the Bull party is over...we are nowhere near this psychological point yet.
So my bets are on this being another Bull correction..
...These normally last a couple of months on average...the last one in June was very mild (7%) and only lasted a month. but I have seen some last 9 -10 months and had a trading pattern type behaviour....index going nowhere. So a correction can be all shapes and sizes.

Also....its usually around this time of the bull cycle that fundamentals become important in the eyes of the investor, so expect to hear more about FA.

[JBmurc]

Yes JB I'm also a tax paying trader...like you I worried about whether to sell and buy back cheaper...This time I'm riding the Bull and hopefully it doesn't turn out to be a bear I'm riding.
Why?
Remember the last Bull correction that lasted a month during June/July 2009 ..I took the "sell - buy back cheaper" option and it didn't work.

The ASX dropped 7% overall but the first fall was so fast the market had already dropped 4% and my shares which were more volatile had fallen about 6-10% before I ditched them. I watched the market like a hawk the day the short term downtrend line broke back up I jumped in with buy orders and missed ..I chased the shares back up and finally got back in at a slightly higher price than I sold them for....the winner of this exercise? ..the brokers

OK 7% wasn't a big bull correction and this current Bull correction (maybe a bear who knows for sure?) could be larger say 10%...however if you sell Monday morning after the expect 2% crunch opening, the ASX by then would have dropped 6% of this correction already....so really if you sell monday morning you would only be winning if the Bull correction is abnormally big say 15% or if Dumbass's and the other Elliot wave followers predictions come true and in which case the the cyclic bull dies a premature death, and a sharp bear cycle commences.and I'm outa here:eek:.

I've been mucking around with end of bull cycle indicators this weekend and I can't see any major warning signs... yet!... just the usual trending shifts associated with normal short term downtrends.
So my bets are on a Bull correction..These normally last a couple of months on average...the last one in June was very mild (7%) and only lasted a month. I have seen some last 9 -10 months and had a trading pattern type behaviour.
The inverted H&S pattern has been completed, so really no one really knows whats going to happen short/medium term from here..the chap with the best guess is the guy whos going to take home the money:)

Yeah I'm fully aware that the open on monday will be overdone with pently of good shares getting over-sold as aways happens is why I have limits on sells which more than likely will sell later monday or during the week...or maybe not at all
some of the orders in place CUE-25c paid 13.5c STX 23.5c paid 16.5c etc
thing is I've done very well for the last 7 months an the old gut feeling has be very wary on all the positive views of being out of recession an back on the path of growth when all the US has been doing is pumping up their economy on a false easy money policy which got them and some of the rest of the world into this mess in the first place.

If all goes to plan I'll be round 30% cash later this week

[contrarianinvestor]

Targets are now reached and there is a high chance the third wave of the bear market is upon us, which will at a minimum retest the market lows but most likely will exceed them.

I am waiting for the market to bottom out and it will be an opportunity for me to load up more shares.

i got out of most my shares last week

If all goes to plan I'll be round 30% cash later this week

Am I sensing a bit of fear? Shares aren't as cheap as in March although I certainly won't be selling any of my shares at this point in time.

[JBmurc]

Am I sensing a bit of fear? Shares aren't as cheap as in March although I certainly won't be selling any of my shares at this point in time.

If your a long term view investor you wouldn't sell only traders that have made good returns over the last bull correction will look to have some cash on the sidelines

[evilroyrule]

buyers still seem to be there. maybe not such a bloodbath as first thought. will be interesting day!

[JBmurc]

buyers still seem to be there. maybe not such a bloodbath as first thought. will be interesting day!

see how many buyers will still be their if the DOW futures are right with another 250+point drop tonight the T/A traders will be in shorting maddness

[evilroyrule]

ok. i guess i was more implying if opening isnt carnage could be best time to drop some.

[Grand Uber]

Do the Dow futures point to another 250 point drop? As far as I can see they are pointing to a flat/small down day. Am I looking at the wrong thing?

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

[JBmurc]

Do the Dow futures point to another 250 point drop? As far as I can see they are pointing to a flat/small down day. Am I looking at the wrong thing?

http://money.cnn.com/data/afterhours/

I'm just going off bloomberg you can never really trust futures till just before open anyway I DOW futures the other day were pointing to a 80-100 point rise to acutally fall 249..

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- CIT Group Inc., in one of the biggest corporate bankruptcies ever, filed for Chapter 11 protection in New York on Sunday.

CIT /quotes/comstock/13*!cit/quotes/nls/cit (CIT 0.72, -0.23, -24.21%) , a major lender to small and midsize businesses, has struggled to avoid collapse since the recession triggered billions of dollars in loan losses and the financial crisis cut the company off from its main source of financing.

"The decision to proceed with our plan of reorganization will allow CIT to continue to provide funding to our small business and middle market customers, two sectors that remain vitally important to the U.S. economy," Chairman and CEO Jeffrey M. Peek said in a statement.

With roughly $60 billion in assets, CIT's filing is probably the fourth-largest bankruptcy in U.S. history, ranking between General Motors /quotes/comstock/11i!mtlqq (MTLQQ 0.59, -0.02, -3.28%) and Enron. The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers /quotes/comstock/11i!lehmq (LEHMQ 0.12, -0.01, -6.92%) , which collapsed last year, was the biggest.

CIT asked the U.S. government for a bailout earlier this year, but despite the company's large business-lending operations, it wasn't deemed too big to fail. See story on government rejecting CIT.

That contrasts with other financial-services companies like American International Group /quotes/comstock/13*!aig/quotes/nls/aig (AIG 33.62, -2.63, -7.26%) , Citigroup /quotes/comstock/13*!c/quotes/nls/c (C 4.09, -0.22, -5.10%) and Bank of America /quotes/comstock/13*!bac/quotes/nls/bac (BAC 14.58, -1.15, -7.31%) , which have received more than $100 billion of government support since last year.

In October, CIT unveiled two different reorganization plans. One involved exchanging some debt, while the other was a voluntary pre-packaged bankruptcy restructuring. On Friday, activist investor Carl Icahn, a big CIT debt holder, said he was voting for the pre-packaged reorganization plan. That made such a filing more likely. See story on CIT's agreement with Icahn.

CIT was hit hard by the global financial crisis in two main ways. As the economy ground to a halt and unemployment surged, more of the company's loans went bad and it reported billions of dollars in losses over multiple quarters.

More importantly, CIT was one of the largest nonbank lenders in the world, a big part of the so-called shadow banking system that collapsed when the financial crisis erupted last year.

Roughly three-quarters of CIT's funding came from the unsecured debt market, but the company was shut out of this market as the crisis deepened. Bank deposits, considered a more stable source of money, made up 0% to 5% of CIT's funding.

CIT became a bank-holding company and got $2.3 billion from the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program in December. But that didn't solve its long-term problem: how to borrow money at competitive rates so it could continue lending.

CIT applied for a debt guarantee program run by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. but was rejected. Efforts to shift more of its assets to its banking unit, CIT Bank, have also hit hurdles.

CIT's bankruptcy will likely mean that the Treasury Department loses the $2.3 billion it invested in the company -- the biggest loss from TARP so far.

[STRAT]

Early in the day but looks like those who dumped at open may have sellers remorse by this arvo

[dumbass]

i think there a reasonable chance of a rally from here, if you look at my trade on djia on the forex thread, the count is not to far away from 5 waves down which will complete wave 1. Should then see a good pull back to guage if this is the real deal. ( top can not be breached )
The dollar index will be a good clue but as yet has not broken out of an ending diagonal trend line.
My feeling a little lower tonight with a reversal in a day or two.

[drillfix]

Anybody also hear that the US sell off on Friday was also caused by computer/software glitch errors which caused sell orders and thus created more panic than there actually should have been.

Was via Commsec video news, but dont know if this also the case but one has to truly wonder why somethings get overdone, all of a sudden.

Kinda like Skynet and then the terminators rush out and blast all the stops right down with no questions asked :rolleyes:

[JBmurc]

I now see the DOW futures up 17

May well get some sells done tomorrow on a rally

CIT is the largest small business leader -IT'S NOW IN Bankruptcy! this will lead to many more, thousands of bankruptcies which leads to increasing unemployment in the US

on a postive note china growth looking solid ,while the UK,USA fall the ASIA S.A will rise

[Footsie]

one thing we need to remember is that during Bear Markets all markets move in sync with the USA, but if this is a bull, the its more likely the ASX will beat to its own drum

and right now that drum is one of no recession, 5% unemployment and strong growth for 2010.

No particular reason for the ASX to get smashed more than a normal 10% correctoin. back to around 4350 or 200 pts below current levels, which is basicaly 2 bad days.

If it goes any lower and the Australian economy remains on track, then its gotta be a great buying opp

[JBmurc]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd1WCcoDsvM

worth a watch USD to be trash

[dumbass]

my rule of thumb is no bald man should ever have a ponytail under any circumstances.

[Dr_Who]

I dont know about you guys, but this sell off is an opportunity for me to buy all the shares I missed out on. A consolidation is good for us all. Central banks will hold rates steady if there are further sell off, hence no rate increase and the market goes higher.

Pls dont ask me when to buy cos I dont have a crystal ball and usually get it wrong.

[evilroyrule]

gotta be happy JB. IRN UP today. inching closer perhaps?

[JBmurc]

gotta be happy JB. IRN UP today. inching closer perhaps?

yeah I've now got 104k in cash in the call account bring on the IRN takeover I'll be keeping a close eye on IRN today just shows how the market rates IRN might just have to increase my IRN holding

[evilroyrule]

yeah i gotta be honest and say i sold out half my cfe today at 46. thinking i might need some reserves for irn soon. and by the time that one played out im picking cfe (which is still a good bet) will be churning about where it is at present. hard part as doc. alluded to was picking when to get back in. even if the dow is up over night its going to be all over all the place for a while i think. ill sit with some cash and wait for th announcement then load up with irn. hopefully. plan changes by the hour. lot of stocks even now looking cheap. all about timing i guess.

[JBmurc]

yeah i gotta be honest and say i sold out half my cfe today at 46. thinking i might need some reserves for irn soon. and by the time that one played out im picking cfe (which is still a good bet) will be churning about where it is at present. hard part as doc. alluded to was picking when to get back in. even if the dow is up over night its going to be all over all the place for a while i think. ill sit with some cash and wait for th announcement then load up with irn. hopefully. plan changes by the hour. lot of stocks even now looking cheap. all about timing i guess.

Yeah I think CFE will really shine next year we'll IRN could do very soon

[Dr_Who]

LOL.. you two guys hijacked this thread.

Chinese market up 2.5% on growth of manufacturing sector. This may flow onto Europe and US. US non pay farm roll out overnight. Lets hope it is positive.

[JBmurc]

I'll be happy eitherway now I have some cash on the sidelines

[evilroyrule]

sorry doc! i was meaning to post for you earlier. i saw today china manufacturing in october biggest growth for 18 months. and then i remembered your post yonks back about taking more of a lead from china as opposed to dow. makes sense partic. re these stocks, but again sense has little to do with it. sorry to have messed up the thread. good luck finding those millions!

where wld you stick them today out of curiosoty?

[Dr_Who]

where wld you stick them today out of curiosoty?

I bought some more BLY and NUF today. BLY would benefit from the continue strength in commodities and the mining sector and NUF is a T/O play. Pls do your own research before you invest.

[Hoop]

LOL.. you two guys hijacked this thread.

Chinese market up 2.5% on growth of manufacturing sector. This may flow onto Europe and US. US non pay farm roll out overnight. Lets hope it is positive.

Shanghai started its market correction 3 months ago. a bit ugly lost 25%.
However their corrections are usually double the ASX ..so does that mean 12.5%?

[STRAT]

my rule of thumb is no bald man should ever have a ponytail under any circumstances.haha I will second that rule dumbass :D

[Footsie]

Hoop 12.5% takes back to around 4250-4300

that's a figure that I have in my mind.

we will probably trade higher now for a few days, then fail to make a new high and roll over again..

[dumbass]

5 waves down probably completed today which should mean a three wave rally.
looking to sell into this rally for a big move lower.

[JBmurc]

The US dept clock LOL



http://www.usdebtclock.org/

[Hoop]

5 waves down probably completed today which should mean a three wave rally.
looking to sell into this rally for a big move lower.

Hmmmm..interesting
An unpredicted comment from you Dumbass:)
Little bit lost here ...what is your time period and size of those sub-waves for those 3 waves up.


Prechter would have to be classed as a Elliott Wave Guru....boy oh boy is he putting his reputation on the line with with a quote like this.."Before the end of 2009, shares should succumb to the great bear market worldwide, and a major bottom is scheduled for 2014-2016. “I expect it to be very much like 1929-1932, a relentless fall within a deflationary environment,” says Bob Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International (http://www.compareshares.com.au/fras49.php).
He's also putting the Elliott Wave principals on the line too with the whole belief all this is going to happen due to the ultra long wave 5 up ending as well.....

....wow:eek: one huge call for Elliott Wave practitioners...eh Dumbass

Disc: Hoop respects and does use Elliott waves as a tool from time to time.

[dumbass]

ah retracements , they can be shallow , they can be deep
look between 38.2 - 78.6 % fib levels of this down leg.
61.8 is the most powerfull
look at trend lines from the top
will be 3 waves and likely to be a zig- zag and can not exceed sp 500 top at 1100
confirm with candlesticks and what ever arco is saying.

[Hoop]

ah retracements , they can be shallow , they can be deep
look between 38.2 - 78.6 % fib levels of this down leg.
61.8 is the most powerfull
look at trend lines from the top
will be 3 waves and likely to be a zig- zag and can not exceed sp 500 top at 1100
confirm with candlesticks and what ever arco is saying.


Your figures suggest the cyclic bull died 14th October 2009 RIP...a big call.

[dumbass]

Not really in to the labels but for your info i consider october to be the end of major wave B of the bear market. We are now heading into the C wave .
The A wave's 50% plus loss confirmed that this wasn't just a common bear market, but one of Cycle or even Supercycle proportions.

[The Big Ease]

FTSE down 2%.
When it goes down that much without taking a lead from the DJI (up last night), it usually means there is something to it.

Just about to fall through previous support.

[contrarianinvestor]

Prechter would have to be classed as a Elliott Wave Guru....boy oh boy is he putting his reputation on the line with with a quote like this.."Before the end of 2009, shares should succumb to the great bear market worldwide, and a major bottom is scheduled for 2014-2016. “I expect it to be very much like 1929-1932, a relentless fall within a deflationary environment,” says Bob Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International (http://www.compareshares.com.au/fras49.php).

I wouldn't listen to Prechter. He underperformed the broad market averages by 25 percent per year since 1985. (http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090616).

[Dr_Who]

Asian markets bouncing.

[Hoop]

I wouldn't listen to Prechter. He underperformed the broad market averages by 25 percent per year since 1985. (http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090616).

Interesting article...:).

[upside_umop]

I wouldn't listen to Prechter. He underperformed the broad market averages by 25 percent per year since 1985. (http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090616).

If you can find the raw data, then I'd believe the strategies have lost 98.3%!

Seriously, thats a huge underperformance! Sure, he may have underperformed the market, but a 98% loss? Thats quite incredible! :cool:

I once had a physics teacher, and he said he would give anybody 100% if they could get 0% in a multi-choice test of 100 questions. What I'm saying is...its pretty damn difficult to do. Same applies with the market, doesnt it? I'm no efficient market freak or anything, quite the opposite...but he would have to have some serious luck to pull of that size loss.

I'm thinking this guy who wrote the article has maybe misinterpreted the data himself? Perhaps this dude Prechter has just underperforming the S&P by 25% per annum...ie 9.7%*0.75 = ~7.28%? Or perhaps he's taking into account every single trade with full service broker fees or something? Who knows!

Just a thought....maybe my common sense isnt quite there today!

[Ketel One]

http://hellameke.com/images/bwy1257337873e.png

No commentary needed really. ASX seems to have gotten a little ahead of US markets, so it's not too surprising its downward turn is more severe. Let's hope that DJ trendline holds!

[The Big Ease]

such a good forum.

EDIT: That was your correction folks. Enjoy the ride?

[Corporate]

Kettle One - thanks you for the chart. It show's the situation perfectly.

[Dr_Who]

KABOOM! Market goes higher..... I hope :)

I pick up some more stocks yesterday on market weakness.

[STRAT]

http://hellameke.com/images/bwy1257337873e.png

No commentary needed really. ASX seems to have gotten a little ahead of US markets, so it's not too surprising its downward turn is more severe. Let's hope that DJ trendline holds!Hi Ketel.
Actually that might be a bit mis leading. They have a different scale range and if you change the time frame you get this :eek:

[STRAT]

Is it possible we all got a bit caught up in the noise. Might be a bit simplistic but isnt the line on this chart the bottom line?

all puns intended :D

[winner69]

I like this chart - what a correlation

Good bsckground stuff on www.sra.co.nz under Radney's Ravings

[dumbass]

ah retracements , they can be shallow , they can be deep
look between 38.2 - 78.6 % fib levels of this down leg.
61.8 is the most powerfull
look at trend lines from the top
will be 3 waves and likely to be a zig- zag and can not exceed sp 500 top at 1100
confirm with candlesticks and what ever arco is saying.

well retracement hit the 50 % level and also big pivot at 1061 and sold off , will be looking for a confirmed short entry as this MAY be it for wave 2 .

[dumbass]

Hmmmm..interesting
An unpredicted comment from you Dumbass:)
Little bit lost here ...what is your time period and size of those sub-waves for those 3 waves up.


Prechter would have to be classed as a Elliott Wave Guru....boy oh boy is he putting his reputation on the line with with a quote like this.."Before the end of 2009, shares should succumb to the great bear market worldwide, and a major bottom is scheduled for 2014-2016. “I expect it to be very much like 1929-1932, a relentless fall within a deflationary environment,” says Bob Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International (http://www.compareshares.com.au/fras49.php).
He's also putting the Elliott Wave principals on the line too with the whole belief all this is going to happen due to the ultra long wave 5 up ending as well.....

....wow:eek: one huge call for Elliott Wave practitioners...eh Dumbass

Disc: Hoop respects and does use Elliott waves as a tool from time to time.

Hoop you can't view things so simplisticly, its kind of like saying everyone who uses a certain indicator will have the same views about the market and trade the same way.
Elliot is simply a set of rules and guidelines to which the individual applies to the price,at all times there will be a bullish and bearish wave count and often a few of them.
i think Prechter is so ridiculously bearish that he is kind of predicting the end of the investment world as we know it.

[Hoop]

Hoop you can't view things so simplisticly,its kind of like saying everyone who uses a certain indicator will have the same views about the market and trade the same way.
Elliot is simply a set of rules and guidelines to which the individual applies to the price,at all times there will be a bullish and bearish wave count and often a few of them.
i think Prechter is so ridiculously bearish that he is kind of predicting the end of the investment world as we know it.

Hoop you can't view things so simplisticly,.... I don't..actually (probably my downfall..see below) when I go digging I dig deep..occassionally I share some in depth stuff on ST but as Tricia pointed out.. .had to go down to the corner shop and buy a bottle of port to complete reading one of my posts..:cool:...

Some of the very heavy stuff I dig up I have to go searching for a quick tutor up on the web myself.......these sorts of complexities you don't bore ST posters with because readers will turn off...just publish on ST the simplified relevant straight to the point results derived from many hours grinding through the boring heavy stuff. Winner69 and Phaedrus are two that I know of (no doubt there many others) that has this simplicity to communicate down to a fine art..a sign of experts at work.

Actual fact... the people tend to be their own enemies as they over complicate issues, not able to censor misinformation from information and deduce false logic from that all that information overload.... Most times there is not a need to do so as there is a danger of "losing sight of the wood within the trees" situation....a great trick used by Politicians to confuse the public in todays freedom of speech democracy era.


One of my old mates who has no formal education drives around in an old beat car, has a dress wardrobe value of about $10.. looks at you through glazed eyes half of the time. Mention what he thinks of the world global economic situation he says dunno. Ask him what PE Ratio is and he says dunno. I'm convinced his English is limited to words like dunno... ......................and yet he's worth $Millions.. got all his money by share investments.
I asked him once what was his method..he said, "it very easy really, only buy stocks that go up..sell when they go down .......Hey very simple.. huh.

Dumbass Glad to see you are not totally agreeing with that EW President Prechter character.

Maybe DOW not in correction but a zigzag formation???

[Lego_Man]

I wonder if Phaedrus chart has gone pink yet?

So do i.

I suspect his PM box is quite full too.

[wbosher]

Isn't he on a holiday bathing in sunlight somewhere at the moment?

[STRAT]

Isn't he on a holiday bathing in sunlight somewhere at the moment?Perhaps that is as close to a prediction as we are going to get from Phaedrus :eek:

[DTB]

"....I asked him once what was his method..he said, "it very easy really, only buy stocks that go up..sell when they go down .......Hey very simple.. huh."



Brilliant!!

[h2so4]

One of my old mates who has no formal education drives around in an old beat car, has a dress wardrobe value of about $10.. looks at you through glazed eyes half of the time. Mention what he thinks of the world global economic situation he says dunno. Ask him what PE Ratio is and he says dunno. I'm convinced his English is limited to words like dunno... ......................and yet he's worth $Millions.. got all his money by share investments.
I asked him once what was his method..he said, "it very easy really, only buy stocks that go up..sell when they go down .......Hey very simple.. huh.



No doubt a true story
I feel sorry for the poor old bloke. Probably hasn't had a decent meal in his whole life............Ah well at least his share investments provide food for thought.:D

[STRAT]

No doubt a true story
I feel sorry for the poor old bloke. Probably hasn't had a decent meal in his whole life............Ah well at least his share investments provide food for thought.:Dhaha h2so4.
Just cause he doesnt dress smart doent mean he couldnt enjoy his food and how do we know he is old? :D

Looks like it will be a good day today but steer clear of Health Care. :p
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/poll-fund-managers-favor-health-care-investments-2009-11-05?siteid=yhoof

[contrarianinvestor]

...I'm thinking this guy who wrote the article has maybe misinterpreted the data himself? ...Just a thought....maybe my common sense isnt quite there today!
Your common sense was better than mine on this one. 25% p.a. underperformance doen't make sense and is most likely wrong.

[zorba]

What happens now ... overnight Europe up 0.5 - 0.6 % .... US indeces jump 1.9 - 2.4 % .... Dow back above 10,000 !!!

US productivity and unemployment data looking encouraging ......

Lotsa other signs (eg Cisco sales up, Buffet buys big, Bernanke confirms low Fed interest rates, last quarter's US GDP positive, oil price holding up close to US$80/barrel, global scrap steel prices on the up, robust spot coking coal prices above US$150/tonne) that US and global recovery is getting stronger ?

Time to get back in ??

But the big dark bear in the room ...... US commercial real estate - will it implode ?

.

[Footsie]

Your figures suggest the cyclic bull died 14th October 2009 RIP...a big call.

A big call indeed.
Just shows you that you cant be too stubborn in your views either way. At all times one must remain flexible and stay focused on the fundamentals.

[JBmurc]

What happens now ... overnight Europe up 0.5 - 0.6 % .... US indeces jump 1.9 - 2.4 % .... Dow back above 10,000 !!!

US productivity and unemployment data looking encouraging ......

Lotsa other signs (eg Cisco sales up, Buffet buys big, Bernanke confirms low Fed interest rates, last quarter's US GDP positive, oil price holding up close to US$80/barrel, global scrap steel prices on the up, robust spot coking coal prices above US$150/tonne) that US and global recovery is getting stronger ?

Time to get back in ??

But the big dark bear in the room ...... US commercial real estate - will it implode ?

.

last week I was feeling very bearish on the sharemarket in the short term but over the last 7 odd days of study I'm feeling more bullish real Inflation will drive real assets like commodities to new highs as the world's exporters an savers keep growing while I bearish on the old growth economy's with low export per cap earnings like USA ,Britian etc which I believe we'll see more bankruptcies from their failed economic systems-

Aussie will do well as they are a low dept high earning exporter nation as will the companies there.

-Whats britian's main exports earnings to the world ??

[Xerof]

Whats britian's main exports earnings to the world ??

Mad Cow disease.....

I've switched a few NZO shares into CFE yesterday morning, i.e. NZ fairly valued to OZ undervalued. See what happens.......

[evilroyrule]

hi jb, your stalker here. im doing myself in over my stoopid decision to sell cfe! still im new to all of this am learning from my mistakes. hope irn goes soon so i can climb back into cfe! good luck with your htm purchase!

[h2so4]

haha h2so4.
Just cause he doesnt dress smart doent mean he couldnt enjoy his food and how do we know he is old? :D

Looks like it will be a good day today but steer clear of Health Care. :p
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/poll-fund-managers-favor-health-care-investments-2009-11-05?siteid=yhoof

"....dunno....":D

[JBmurc]

hi jb, your stalker here. im doing myself in over my stoopid decision to sell cfe! still im new to all of this am learning from my mistakes. hope irn goes soon so i can climb back into cfe! good luck with your htm purchase!

LOL your be happy with the IRN close it may well open monday into a trading halt insider imfo?? well I hope it does-- takeover of Tamapakan 1.30 -1.50 takeover of IRN 1.50+

[evilroyrule]

was a welcome surprise. little worried come takeover everyone bail fast and drive sp down. im unsure whether to stay in for the takeover of irn or take my profit and run. what surprised me friday was such a jump on relatively modest 1 million turnover. it did prove your point though from earlier in the week though. buyers for irn come from sidelines. looking for where to go next. weighing up cfe, bul or mpo. if only i had more money! still, its all good fun. what did the dow do overnight?

[COLIN]

what did the dow do overnight?

Up a modest 17 points. After an initial shock the market seemed to shrug off the bad unemployment figures (now 10.2%) - but the oil price took a bit of a dive.

[JBmurc]

was a welcome surprise. little worried come takeover everyone bail fast and drive sp down. im unsure whether to stay in for the takeover of irn or take my profit and run. what surprised me friday was such a jump on relatively modest 1 million turnover. it did prove your point though from earlier in the week though. buyers for irn come from sidelines. looking for where to go next. weighing up cfe, bul or mpo. if only i had more money! still, its all good fun. what did the dow do overnight?

don't know anything bout BUL your already know me views on CFE an MPO is my second largest oil&gas hold for good reason very cheap safe energy play

[trackers]

Big Rally in US overnight

U.S. Stocks, Commodities Jump as Dollar Slides on G-20 Stimulus
(http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:togShareLinks%28%27shr_v%27%29;)



Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks extended a global rally and the dollar slid after the Group of 20 nations agreed to maintain economic stimulus efforts. Commodities climbed, sending gold to a record above $1,100 an ounce.
General Electric Co. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GE%3AUS), Caterpillar Inc. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CAT%3AUS) and Intel Corp. gained at least 2.4 percent to help lead the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher. Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s largest gold producer, increased 3.3 percent. Las Vegas Sands Corp. jumped 6.4 percent as it got commitments for $1.45 billion of financing to restart a casino project in Macau. The dollar weakened against all 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPXL1%3AIND) advanced 1.3 percent to 1,082.9 at 10:39 a.m. in New York for a sixth straight day of gains. The Dow added 116.01 points, or 1.2 percent, to 10,139.43. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SXXP%3AIND) rose 1.7 percent, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rallied 1 percent.
“This is real bull market stuff,” said Hugh Johnson (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Hugh+Johnson&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), who manages more than $1.6 billion as chairman of Albany, New York- based Johnson Illington. “No country is backing away from their program of fiscal stimulus. That’s good news for the global economy and not such good news for inflation. That’s why you’re seeing stock markets around the world going higher.”

[Hoop]

Another happy day for JB's portfolio I expect :D
JBmurc quote..."-Whats britian's main exports earnings to the world ?? "

...ohh.. answer to your queston..I was dying to know myself but as other posters didn't answer I had to look it up myself (..mad cow disease doesn't count as an answer Xerof ;))


Machinery and transport, manufactured goods and chemicals are Britain's largest export earners. (wiki) (http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_are_the_major_imports_and_exports_of_Great_Br itain)

[peat]

I thought Britains largest earnings were in oil and financial services.

[fungus pudding]

I thought Britains largest earnings were in oil and financial services.


I don't know - but God help anyone who buys anything mechanical built by the Poms.

[JBmurc]

I don't know - but God help anyone who buys anything mechanical built by the Poms.

yeah their north sea interest would have made them some good dollars sadly for them the north sea is production is dropping ..

[DTB]

I don't know - but God help anyone who buys anything mechanical built by the Poms.

Yeah you're probably right. That'd be why most formula 1 cars are engineered and made in England - Even the Renault team is based in England

Can't organise their own Grand Prix though....



Almost forgot - even Ferrari needed a pom to build Schumacher a winning car - ever heard of Ross Brawn?

[mark100]

I don't know - but God help anyone who buys anything mechanical built by the Poms.

British made and designed machinery is actually pretty good. Its the socialist lefties that were employed to put it together that caused the problems, particularly in the 70s. Always on strike etc. Unfortunately this has tarnished the reputation of British made goods for the past 30 years

[fungus pudding]

British made and designed machinery is actually pretty good. Its the socialist lefties that were employed to put it together that caused the problems, particularly in the 70s. Always on strike etc. Unfortunately this has tarnished the reputation of British made goods for the past 30 years


Since before 1950 at least in the case of the motor industry. They didn't even try till the Japs stole their market - even then they couldn't get it right.

[Footsie]

Ask yourself... who would buy a ROVER?

they have some quality brands and original engineering, its the reliability thats the problem


most reliable cars in the world.... certainly not a landrover.... try Toyota or VW.
both designed by defeated axis powers.... got to be some irony in that.

[STRAT]

Since before 1950 at least in the case of the motor industry. They didn't even try till the Japs stole their market - even then they couldn't get it right.Theyve made some crap to be sure but Id find a space in my garage for a TVR or a BD9 if I could afford one.

Back to the junk though it has always amazed me that no matter how bad a British car is there will always be a club full of enthusiasts who own them

[STRAT]

Ask yourself... who would buy a ROVER?
A really old accountant :D:p

[fungus pudding]

Ask yourself... who would buy a ROVER?

they have some quality brands and original engineering, its the reliability thats the problem


most reliable cars in the world.... certainly not a landrover.... try Toyota or VW.
both designed by defeated axis powers.... got to be some irony in that.

Forget VW - electrics let them down. Most reliable in all surveys put Toyota, Honda, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Suzuki and a few other Jap thingsat the top. Not necessarily in that order. Bottom is always Alfa Romeo followed by other European overpriced stuff. A bit of googling will show you various surveys.

[wbosher]

Toyota by a country mile, they go forever if treated well (in fact even if they're not). I sold my last one for a later model, it'd done 1/2 million k's and was still going strong. :D

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Jaguar & Landrover Were owned by Ford as was Volvo of Sweden. Volvo had problems with suspension balljoints under Ford Control some models are still using Ford platforms to the best of my knowledge. What muck ups were made with Jaguar & Landrover under Ford control? So do not blame the Poms for everything. BMW bought a lot of British Leyland for the rights to the Mini. VW and an other Manufacturer fought over Rolls Royce & Bently.

[h2so4]

At least the poms still have Top Gear :)

[Phaedrus]

I wouldn't listen to Prechter. He underperformed the broad market averages by 25 percent per year since 1985. (http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090616).
Perhaps this dude Prechter has just underperforming the S&P by 25% per annum...ie 9.7%*0.75 = ~7.28%? Prechter's investment trading predictions and picks are fully documented in his newsletters. (I was once a subscriber!) His Elliott Wave based system did indeed "underperform the broad market averages by 25 percent per year". This sounds bad enough, but Prechter's relative performance appears far worse when it is expressed differently.......

Here's how Prechter's trading advice did versus the general US market from 1/1/85 to 31/5/09 :-
Wilshire 5000 Index :- 9.7% average annual Gain
Prechter's Trading Advice :- 15.4% average annual LOSS. (The "25% underperformance" was based on the sum of these 2 figures)

Cumulative return over 23 and a bit years :-
Wilshire 5000 Index (Buy and hold) :- 857% Gain
Prechter's Trading Advice :- 98.3% LOSS.

$100,000 Invested 1/1/85-31/5/09 :-
Wilshire 5000 Index compounded to :- $957,100
Prechter's Trading Advice :- $1,700

[Phaedrus]

Time to get back in ??When was it time to get out??

The DOW has been strong for months.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/DOW1111.gif

[Corporate]

When was it time to get out??

The DOW has been strong for months.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/DOW1111.gif

Wow thanks P. I thought that they green line may have changed colour in the recent sell off. Can't have been a major one in the scheme of things.

Cheers
C

[COLIN]

Phaedrus: Welcome home! I feel I can relax a little more, now that you're back to save us from too many daft decisions.

Trust you had a good break.

[winner69]

Wow thanks P. I thought that they green line may have changed colour in the recent sell off. Can't have been a major one in the scheme of things.

Cheers
C


Corp - even looks like a new high as well

[jdg]

welcome back, Phaedrus, i hope you are well rested and had a great trip.

while you were gone there were a couple of graphs posted correlating the DOW and the ASX all ords. if you have a moment could you produce one of those for us. i would be most interested to see which fell the hardest and where their respective recoveries are currently at.

only if it's no trouble, of course.

-j

[Phaedrus]

This what you want JDG?

Pretty similar eh?

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/DowAllOrds1111.gif

[jdg]

that is exactly what i was looking for, Phaedrus.
incredibly similar as to the lows and where both are at now.
thanks so much. i really appreciate it.

-j

[sharer]

Phaedrus: Welcome home! I feel I can relax a little more, now that you're back to save us from too many daft decisions.

Trust you had a good break.

May i respectfully endorse the honourable gentleman's sentiments?

Lately nervous imagining of fading green has had me edging closer to the Exit door "just in case".

Thanks too Phaedrus for the aus:usa correlation done for JDG's request.
Especially relevant for me now that i've been able to recover most of the NZX $$ without loss and now concentrate nearly everything on Oz. I know i'm not the only one appreciating your generous efforts.

[JBmurc]

Is China headed toward collapse? yeeks


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29330.html

[COLIN]

Is China headed toward collapse? yeeks


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29330.html

Well, I dunno about this Chanos guy but the word on the wires tonight is that there has been a surge in China's factory output - I very much doubt if this is the last fling of a "paper dragon". There will always be some naysayers around, of course, and plenty of so-called experts who claim that they called it right at significant points in the global economic and financial cycles.

And another statement I read somewhere in the last 24 hours (I think it was from the head honsho at RIO): "China's iron ore requirements for the next five years will exceed all the iron ore that Australia has ever produced to date!" I believe there is plenty of evidence to support that prediction.

[Dr_Who]

Is China headed toward collapse? yeeks


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29330.html

Analysts have upgraded China's growth projections to 10% recently based on the recent factory output. Also the Chinese market have come off around 25% this year from its high. This is all very good for the Chinese economy.

I think China still have a while to go before/if there is a bubble. Their domestic consumption which includes huge govt spending on upgrading the infrastructure will support growth. Also the Yuan pegged to the low USD will help the Chinese export sector.

Abit premature at this stage to call a bubble, but it will come one day, but not just yet.

[Hoop]

EDIT:- 10.05pm

Health Warning:
Reading this post below will seriously affect your mind.


Can't believe I wrote this...Came home from the dentist with this brillant secular notion..even looked good to me when I wrote it.


I blame my brain implosion on the following factors;-
I looked at my dentist bill. :eek:
It was Friday the 13th.


Apologies... as I try to write quality posts..and this effort was off the top of my head and I afraid it is total rubbbish and should be ignored.
Thanks P and Winner for the alerts.


Hoop (after today, a born again paraskevidekatriaphobiac)

Yanks drags their money back home or into gold in times of stress.....Fools!!!

Downunder's the place to send money...hey makes the chart look even better if you add the difference with the falling US $ lately.
.
On a more serious note...look at the difference between secular cycles.
DOW has been in a secular bear cycle since the year 2000. The All Ords & NZX50 were not, they were in a secular bull cycle up til 2007. What a huge difference secular cycles have.

Comparison : - Had the DOW had been in a secular bull cycle up until 2007 as like the All Ords and NZX50 the DOW index would now be at 17000 not 10200
.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOWASXNZX5011112009.png

[drillfix]

If you were to take a seat on Tom Scollon's ferris wheel, where exactly would you sit? :rolleyes: :confused: :p

http://i35.tinypic.com/rw4glk.gif

[Hoop]

If you were to take a seat on Tom Scollon's ferris wheel, where exactly would you sit? :rolleyes: :confused: :p

http://i35.tinypic.com/rw4glk.gif

A lot is wrong with this diagram

such as to name a few:-
..Rising interest rates should be at 9 oclock not 3 oclock
..Business foreclosures at the bust or just after 7 oclock
..Property markets lag share market in recovery
..Property peak happens after the boom at 1oclock
..Falling property prices happen after the falling share prices..again lags

In general the correct economic clock works by theory...of course markets may react differently due to market intervention etc.


Look at Post#160 Investing Strategies and Secular Bear cycles (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5171&page=11). The economic clock presented by Count Financial Group is a copy from the basic Economic textbooks you see lying around the place. I have written some additional stuff about the way the clock works as well.

[winner69]

DOW has been in a secular bear cycle since the year 2000. The All Ords & NZX50 were not, they were in a secular bull cycle up til 2007. What a huge difference secular cycles have.



Hoop - one could say that the ASX has actually been in a secular bear market since 2000 as PE ratio has been contracting. Obviously increasing (record) profits keep market prices up. Just as well there was this boom eh

The chart only goes up to 2007 but the current PE at about 14 is still lower than 2000.

As with previous secular bear markets which last anything up to 15 years will the ASX PE ratio continue to contract for another 5 years?

Only time will tell

[drillfix]

A lot is wrong with this diagram



Hoop, I can appreciate your work and more likely agree with you here.

Thats not my diagram, and came across it on the Hubb Investor newsletter part done by Tom Scollon.

http://www.hubb.com/articles/2009/hubb_ArticleNov_1.asp?page=outlook


There seem to be a few Investor/Investment Clocks floating around the web and which one proves to the "The One" Im a little uncertain to which came first the chicken or the egg so to speak..:rolleyes:

Anyways, here is another but from the a Monks Investing time line:

http://i35.tinypic.com/35lb6sw.gif

and yet another clock found?? god knows where.

http://i38.tinypic.com/9rrbz9.gif


disclaimer: Use at your own peril :eek::p

[Phaedrus]

Ah Hoop, I am the bearer of ill tidings. The marked difference that you show between the Dow and the NZSX50 is illusory. You are unfairly comparing a capital index with a gross index.
If we start the chart at the All Ords low (as marked by the dot on your chart) since then, the Dow has risen 32% vs the NZX rise of just 8%.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/INDICES1113.gif

[Hoop]

I had 2 options... either delete my post #966 or correct it.

...I picked the 3rd..gave it a health warning tag, a reminder for me to look back and say "if you stuff something up don't do it in halves, do it properly".

[winner69]

Shares set to explode

20% plus gains still to come

http://www.theage.com.au/business/shares-set-to-explode-20091121-is7b.html

[Lizard]

Ah Hoop, I am the bearer of ill tidings. The marked difference that you show between the Dow and the NZSX50 is illusory. You are unfairly comparing a capital index with a gross index.
If we start the chart at the All Ords low (as marked by the dot on your chart) since then, the Dow has risen 32% vs the NZX rise of just 8%.


I wish I could see what the NZX "recovery" would look like if the components with a primary ASX listing (and which are mainly traded there) were taken out - especially ANZ, WBC, TLS and perhaps also APN, AMP, LNN, GFF. I keep wondering whether without the Aussies dragging us up our index would be showing any bounce at all.

[macduffy]

Fair point, Lizard, although it's important to bear in mind that the weighting of the Aussie companies is only a fraction of their actual market cap. It's based on free float capitalisation, however that is arrived at, perhaps as a ratio of their trading on NZX compared to ASX?

eg. Telstra has about the same weight in the NZX50 as Hellabys and Skellerup! The banks all have lower weightings than the likes of AIA, FBU, GPG and CEN.

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds1122.gif

[contrarianinvestor]

Shares set to explode
20% plus gains still to come
http://www.theage.com.au/business/shares-set-to-explode-20091121-is7b.html
This article is 8 months late like most mainstream news.

[winner69]

This article is 8 months late like most mainstream news.

Maybe .... but most would be pleased if the ASX rises another 20% over the next year from here .... wouldn't they ... esp as many (inc a few on this site) that its all downhill from here

[contrarianinvestor]

most would be pleased if the ASX rises another 20% over the next year from here ....
I'm obviously not thinking like most people. As a net saver I'll be happy to see lower share prices. An excerpt from Warren Buffett's 1997 Berkshire annual letter states my way of thinking:

A short quiz: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices? These questions, of course, answer themselves.

But now for the final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the “hamburgers” they will soon be buying. This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.

So smile when you read a headline that says “Investors lose as market falls.” Edit it in your mind to “Disinvestors lose as market falls — but investors gain.” Though writers often forget this truism, there is a buyer for every seller and what hurts one necessarily helps the other. (As they say in golf matches: “Every putt makes someone happy.”)

[winner69]

So contrarian .... you have had a pretty miserable last 8 months or so

[contrarianinvestor]

So contrarian .... you have had a pretty miserable last 8 months or so
Indeed :) Obvious buying opportunities like DWS (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showpost.php?p=244556&postcount=97) and RCR (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showpost.php?p=244537&postcount=54) are not that easy to find anymore. Late 2008/early 2009 was the only time when I considered it safe to buy heaps of shares on margin. Even if prices remained low, dividend yields alone provided very profitable outcomes.

[drillfix]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds1122.gif


Great chart there Phaedrus.

Out of curiosity, do you manually colour those lines or does Metastock have a script or is there an Auto Colouring tool or something :D :rolleyes:

[Phaedrus]

Do you manually colour those lines or does Metastock have a script or is there an Auto Colouring tool or something?Click here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=271179)to see the post on the Dow thread where I first explained the workings of this indicator.
The different colours of the Index plot are controlled by a master indicator which is derived from a combination of other technical indicators. Each of these constituent indicators is itself a "compilation indicator" formed by using a very wide range of time periods, averaging them and tabulating the results. This means that there is no backtesting, no optimisation and no search for the "best" time period for each indicator. "All" time periods are used for each indicator.
The product of this is a new oscillator that ranges from +1 to -1 with values above zero indicating a strong market and values below zero indicating a weak market. The oscillator value directly controls the colour of the plot. This is achieved through setting up a new MetaStock "Expert Adviser".

[trackers]

Click here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=271179)to see the post on the Dow thread where I first explained the workings of this indicator.
The different colours of the Index plot are controlled by a master indicator which is derived from a combination of other technical indicators. Each of these constituent indicators is itself a "compilation indicator" formed by using a very wide range of time periods, averaging them and tabulating the results. This means that there is no backtesting, no optimisation and no search for the "best" time period for each indicator. "All" time periods are used for each indicator.
The product of this is a new oscillator that ranges from +1 to -1 with values above zero indicating a strong market and values below zero indicating a weak market. The oscillator value directly controls the colour of the plot. This is achieved through setting up a new MetaStock "Expert Adviser".

Love your work, as usual Phaedrus - Seems to mimic my year quite well so far!

[Footsie]

Phaedrus chart may well turn amber if this market continues to reject attempts at a new high.

[Lego_Man]

Yes...and the chances seem to be higher of a deeper correction in Australia, given the possibility of a USD snapback that puts the acid on commodities.

[airedale]

Yes...and the chances seem to be higher of a deeper correction in Australia, given the possibility of a USD snapback that puts the acid on commodities.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d6

Hi Lego Man, a US$ snapback will happen some day, but this chart does not suggest "soon".

[drillfix]

Click here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=271179)to see the post on the Dow thread where I first explained the workings of this indicator.

The oscillator value directly controls the colour of the plot. This is achieved through setting up a new MetaStock "Expert Adviser".


Thanks heaps Phaedrus, and way cool indeed~!

[CAM]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKPEK29792420091123?sp=true

China oil demand slips, metals demand slides in Oct

[Hoop]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKPEK29792420091123?sp=true

China oil demand slips, metals demand slides in Oct

Maybe so... but the USA has recorded a 2.8% increase in growth in this last 3rd quarter and has confirmed it has climbed out of its recession. Europe is also recovering.
As USA and the EU are both 4 times the size of China the slack in demand from China is seen as not a major factor by the markets..as these commodity markets are still powering ahead aided as well by the weakening international monetary standard (US$) used to pay for these goods.

Nominal GDP of Countries ...From Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29)

European Union (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union) 18,387,785 1 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a4/Flag_of_the_United_States.svg/22px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png United States (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) 14,441,425
2 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9e/Flag_of_Japan.svg/22px-Flag_of_Japan.svg.png Japan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan) 4,910,692
3 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fa/Flag_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China.svg/22px-Flag_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China.svg.png China (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Republic_of_China) 4,327,448

As an Example...I personally have been watching and investing in copper since December last year and it is hard to figure out how much of that copper bought up months ago at cheap prices is still stored in warehouses.China bought up "cheap" earlier this year by swapping a small part of its massive amounts of US$ reserves for raw copper assets. This did upset the US and verbal insults between the Americians and the Chinese hit the media.. showing the world for the first time that China is becoming a large enough economic power to to able to effect US monetary control.
With hindsight, watching the US$ go down and copper going up shows that the Chinese are very switched on investors...... I wonder what other raw materials they have this with, as well as the possibilities that other Countries have also employed this strategy as well. This could help explain the demand/supply theory paradox with commodities at present (warehouse stock levels increasing and prices increasing) and one of the many factors causing the US$ to be weak.

Statistics might not showing the true story

[STRAT]

Volatility index hits lowest level since Aug 2008

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCNN2539042220091125?rpc=44

[airedale]

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d6

Hi Lego Man, a US$ snapback will happen some day, but this chart does not suggest "soon".

Up date: US$ index breaks down further through support at 75.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d1

[STRAT]

US up over night but Europe was hammered.

Banks mostly so I wouldnt expect it to put too much of a damper on the ASX today in terms of stocks that dig up oil and dirt?

Bit of a ho-hum week really

[winner69]

weren't us markets closed overnght ... just as well or panic may have struck

[STRAT]

weren't us markets closed overnght ... just as well or panic may have strucklol
Oh yeah I was looking at the results from the day before :o:o:o:o:o:rolleyes:

Thanks W69

In that case I retract my last post :(

[macduffy]

US markets closed for Thanksgiving so no lead from them!

;)

[STRAT]

US markets closed for Thanksgiving so no lead from them!

;)Its lucky for me you guys are awake and on the ball even if Im not:D

[dumbass]

gentleman the US markets were open overnight , big falls unless i was dreaming !

[STRAT]

gentleman the US markets were open overnight , big falls unless i was dreaming !That would be a nightmare rather than a dream
If they were open Yahoo missed it too

http://finance.yahoo.com/indices?e=dow_jones

[Hoop]

gentleman the US markets were open overnight , big falls unless i was dreaming !

You were dreaming..nice dream though..shows a positive green result
Going to be one ugly mother of a day down under folks.


I'm thinking of buying New Zealand....or the world:D:D:D:D
Dubai property might be going to have a massive garage sale ..don't want to miss out

[Skol]

Might buy a little over the next few days.

Things happening all right NZ dollar now .7153. If you want to buy a property in Dubai I guess now's the chance, a couple of days ago I read a report that said it was down 50% and would probably fall another 20%.

Gold-I think it's overdone and all the publicity is a contrarian signal, that when things go bad, which they may be about to, everyone will rush into US$.

There could be a plunge on the open in which case I will probably try to pick up either MGR or SGP, property shares.

[dumbass]

You were dreaming..nice dream though..shows a positive green result
Going to be one ugly mother of a day down under folks.


I'm thinking of buying New Zealand....or the world:D:D:D:D
Dubai property might be going to have a massive garage sale ..don't want to miss out

seriously i traded the sp500 short and teh money in the account looks real
dont forget if its a holiday web sites have not been updated.

[Hoop]

Might buy a little over the next few days.

Things happening all right NZ dollar now .7153. If you want to buy a property in Dubai I guess now's the chance, a couple of days ago I read a report that said it was down 50% and would probably fall another 20%.

Gold-I think it's overdone and all the publicity is a contrarian signal, that when things go bad, which they may be about to, everyone will rush into US$.

There could be a plunge on the open in which case I will probably try to pick up either MGR or SGP, property shares.

What happens if Phadreus chart changes colour ...still buying?:cool:

[Hoop]

seriously i traded the sp500 short and teh money in the account looks real
dont forget if its a holiday web sites have not been updated.

Hmmm thats interesting, Dumbass... Does the SP work globally, outside America? Am I going to learning something new today?

[Footsie]

Hes talking SP500 futures which trade continuoulsy on the likes of CMC

[dumbass]

ii'm not at my trading station so i cant post a chart.
i think i shorted from 1105 on the sp500 and target got hit at the 1095 pivot but market dropped to around 1090 which i think was about 180 points down on the dow futures .

[dumbass]

Hes talking SP500 futures which trade continuoulsy on the likes of CMC

you are absolutely correct market was closed just spx and emini

[Skol]

What happens if Phadreus chart changes colour ...still buying?:cool:

Which chart is this?

[Hoop]

Which chart is this?

Hi Skol.. My post had a little "tongue in cheek" humour in it as I'm aware that individual stocks can fire off different signals to that of it's major indexes....
However I was referring to the All Ords charts...I'm kind of guessing that P's chart may have changed from green to that light blue colour.
Maybe Phaedrus will enlighten us with an update if we ask nicely.

[peat]

I took this Snap of the SP500 this morning....

[drillfix]

ii'm not at my trading station so i cant post a chart.
i think i shorted from 1105 on the sp500 and target got hit at the 1095 pivot but market dropped to around 1090 which i think was about 180 points down on the dow futures .

Nice one Dumbass~!

Could you share with us, who do you use for your Future's trading and what platform?

[drillfix]

This is a bit of a worry really

Unless this is the start of another downturn. What to do, what to do?


Yes it is a bit of a worry, But then where there is worry, there is opportunity.

What to do?

IMO use some of that cash and buy stocks that are in a strong uptrend that are retreating for the today and sell it next week. (imo)

[Footsie]

if you are going to do buying today.. only buy stocks in an uptrend

this whole action next week is giong to depend on how US holiday sales go.

im sure there will be a fix for dubai...these days 4b is not massive and abu Dahbi has a 635b sov wealth fund.

If US retail sales are good... market will have forgotten this in a week.

If retail sales are below "expectations"... it will add fuel to the sell off and asx could reach 4200 in 2 weeks.

US markets are notorious for doing the opposite to what ppl expect... i.e maybe down 1% tongith then up on monday.

HOWEVER<,, I would NOT be selling today. too much chance of a snap back rally on monday

[dumbass]

Nice one Dumbass~!

Could you share with us, who do you use for your Future's trading and what platform?

sure can , i use saxobank , you can just about trade anything on their platform.
i trade spx(sp500) which is a CFD.

There all sharks in my humble opinion. It has been interesting to see the different platforms in operation and the different spreads on the same trades from arco's exceptionally brilliant and very profitable forex service.
a trade this week on gbpjpy triggered and ran within a few pips of the stop loss some guys got stopped out others didn't on the same order.

[Skol]

US will probably be down tonight so I think ASX stocks will be lower Monday, might try and buy a few then.

[Footsie]

phaedrus... how bout an update?

we must be or red by now?

[ratkin]

Oh good , might be able to buy more stocks

[Dr_Who]

Oh good , might be able to buy more stocks

Totally agree. This is an opportunity for me to buy more stocks that are fundamentally good with little to no debt.

Good reason for central banks continue to keep rates low and continue to fuel the bubble by working the printing press over time.

Bring it on.

[777]

Only half day trading in US but held up quite well I think. Overall, over two days, the world markets are only down about 1.5%.

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds1129.gif

[Financially dependant]

Thanks Phaedrus that's very interesting, getting close to the trend line it seems?

[mark100]

Hi Phaedrus, has your chart been updated for Friday's fall? I think the All Ords closed just under 4600 on Friday

[dragonz]

Hi Phaedrus, has your chart been updated for Friday's fall? I think the All Ords closed just under 4600 on Friday

Doest matter really. Im sure that sometime in the future it will tell us what we need to know:D

[Phaedrus]

Whoops! Thanks Mark100. All fixed. Just back from a few days holiday and forgot to update my database. Doh!

FD - Yes, its right at the trendline.

[Hoop]

I thought I'd this posted this chart somewhere on ST on 17th September 2009..but a couldn't find it with a quick search...oh well never mind..

The interesting thing about this 2.5 month old chart is the index hasn't moved much since then...and chart TA predicted Bull market correction figure back then seems to be playing out now within this last month....OK the market pushed the index up past the 4666 due point** to reach 4860ish so it was overdue by +4% before the correction kicked in back in October.


This correction is probably mature now..ending by Xmas????. A good chance!!

**TA target...The figure is the key factor, not the time


Interesting ..huh....one tick for TA;):D

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/AllOrds17092009.png

[Arbitrage]

However individual companies such as TLS, APA and HSP for example appear to be on an upward path.

[Lego_Man]

Yeah...it's the small caps that seem to be rolling over. The Index is grinding higher, but ive noticed the stagnation particularly strongly given that my watchlists have an overwhelming majority of speccies and small caps.

[Skol]

The only one on my watchlist that's gone up today is SIP.

[dragonz]

The only one on my watchlist that's gone up today is SIP.

You want to make a ton of dosh go FFF. Havnt got a lot of time to comment just yet as I need to work on a team thats putting together my new site. I'd just say spend 1/2 hour going over the fundelmentals and history and you'll either see value or not. I'll try and spend time later to update.

These only come along occationaly. Those who intially saw my entry last week are already up 14% plus the SPP at todays prices is an instant 30% profit.

[Footsie]

perhaps we are now going to finally roll over and have a decent correction


market cant seem to push higher and is not going up on good news... US Payrolls, aussie jobs data and confidence

but is selling off on bad data. Greece....

there are a lot of stocks out there that could do with a 20-25% pullback.

[trackers]

I'm done to about 30% invested - But have cheeky low-ball bids on a few favorites

[Corporate]

I might be shown to be wrong. But it seems that everytime the dow blows off a little steam - people start getting jump expecting a big correction.

I'm prepared to wait and see a little longer.

[Stranger_Danger]

Corporate - you could well be right. Buying the dips has been a great strategy since March and will keep being a great strategy, until the day it is isn't. My recent desire to reduce exposure is entirely instinctive and could absolutely be wrong.

My worst case scenario is I get a quiet Christmas and a few months off. I suspect there will be worse possible scenarios than this in the coming months. Time will tell.

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds129.gif

[Shaneoz]

Well there are many things happening at the moment from my view.

XJO is lower and has a wedge formation from late October. A minor pitchfork shows price action is at the bottom of the apf. A lot of trendlines are pointing down or at best sideways. Divergences starting to show. Major trend from beginning of year is still upwards. Daily volume has dropped since the market started going sideways.

S&P has hit a major resistance point it hasnt been able to clear. Dow has failed to close above a 50% of a major range. Got above it but then dropped below.

Shanghai has a double top happening at the moment.

We only have 3 ways for the market to go.Up down or sideways. Since the wedge formation is almost finished I guess its one of two ways. At a guess, since Phaedrus's chart is turning down and changing colour a correction could be on us. There are a few gaps in the price action that the market may try and fill, the first being mid july. Others are back toward the start of the bull run. I would be surprised if it got to fill any of the gaps as if the last year or so has shown us, the governments around the world have been manipulating the markets pretty heavily. If we got a bit of a run down then out would come the printing presses again... pump up the economies and way we go again.

America still has a hell of a lot of issues. Thier auto makers are staggering worse than I do after a big night on the sauce.:rolleyes: The amount of banks in the US that have gone bust this year is horrifying. Unemployment of 10% and growing. Alt Arms housing due in the next year or so.Nuclear weapons conversion to nuclear fuel in Russia looks to be almost finished.1/4 of americas nuclear power is fed from these conversions. Does that mean energy prices to rise? Will these issues come around to haunt us like the sub prime debacle did? I hope not but who knows?

There has been a lot said about this being a bull rally in a bear market. A lot said that its different this time. Is it 1930,37,74 or just something completely different? Some have even said it is all forgiven and its time for the markets to go to the moon.

Gentlemen... its time to place your bets.

[h2so4]

perhaps we are now going to finally roll over and have a decent correction


market cant seem to push higher and is not going up on good news... US Payrolls, aussie jobs data and confidence

but is selling off on bad data. Greece....

there are a lot of stocks out there that could do with a 20-25% pullback.

Lol.....there are a lot of stocks out there that could do with a 20-25% increase.:)

[h2so4]

Well there are many things happening at the moment from my view.

XJO is lower and has a wedge formation from late October. A minor pitchfork shows price action is at the bottom of the apf. A lot of trendlines are pointing down or at best sideways. Divergences starting to show. Major trend from beginning of year is still upwards. Daily volume has dropped since the market started going sideways.

S&P has hit a major resistance point it hasnt been able to clear. Dow has failed to close above a 50% of a major range. Got above it but then dropped below.

Shanghai has a double top happening at the moment.

We only have 3 ways for the market to go.Up down or sideways. Since the wedge formation is almost finished I guess its one of two ways. At a guess, since Phaedrus's chart is turning down and changing colour a correction could be on us. There are a few gaps in the price action that the market may try and fill, the first being mid july. Others are back toward the start of the bull run. I would be surprised if it got to fill any of the gaps as if the last year or so has shown us, the governments around the world have been manipulating the markets pretty heavily. If we got a bit of a run down then out would come the printing presses again... pump up the economies and way we go again.

America still has a hell of a lot of issues. Thier auto makers are staggering worse than I do after a big night on the sauce.:rolleyes: The amount of banks in the US that have gone bust this year is horrifying. Unemployment of 10% and growing. Alt Arms housing due in the next year or so.Nuclear weapons conversion to nuclear fuel in Russia looks to be almost finished.1/4 of americas nuclear power is fed from these conversions. Does that mean energy prices to rise? Will these issues come around to haunt us like the sub prime debacle did? I hope not but who knows?

There has been a lot said about this being a bull rally in a bear market. A lot said that its different this time. Is it 1930,37,74 or just something completely different? Some have even said it is all forgiven and its time for the markets to go to the moon.

Gentlemen... its time to place your bets.

I wouldn't be surprised to see it rally and reach a new peak Dec-Jan but I dont bet on Mr Market:)

[ollie]

Bring on the Christmas rally..................

[h2so4]

Yeah. 'Bring it on'..........:D

[OutToLunch]

Wonder if we will get a repeat of what happened in July? Especially given that there are a lot of people out there calling for a correction now (as was the case in july just before things took off again).

Having said that, I too expect a correction. The 'real' economy is still in poor shape. These stimulus packages are a bit like pushing along a car that won't start... it's moving forward, but it still won't go on its own without being pushed.

[h2so4]

Wonder if we will get a repeat of what happened in July? Especially given that there are a lot of people out there calling for a correction now (as was the case in july just before things took off again).

Having said that, I too expect a correction. The 'real' economy is still in poor shape. These stimulus packages are a bit like pushing along a car that won't start... it's moving forward, but it still won't go on its own without being pushed.

Not only in July. It happened in Aug,Sept,Oct,and Nov....any low for the month was followed by a rally. The 'real' economy? :eek: Well we just have to get over it.

[Hoop]

Not only in July. It happened in Aug,Sept,Oct,and Nov....any low for the month was followed by a rally. The 'real' economy? :eek: Well we just have to get over it.

from quote..Yep...that what happens in a bull market cycle..and it doesnt indicate it is finished either

Myth ....sharemarket is driven by the economy....no doubt caused by media brainwashing , and the endless chatter on forums. Its amazing just how many people believe in this myth.

True fact: The primary driver of the share market is the PE Ratio cycle.

[h2so4]

from quote..Yep...that what happens in a bull market cycle..

Myth ....sharemarket is driven by the economy....no doubt caused by media brainwashing , and the endless chatter on forums. Its amazing just how many people believe in this myth.

True fact: The primary driver of the share market is the PE Ratio cycle.

Yes indeed. Fact. The biggest share market rallies occured during periods of the greatest pain in the economy.

[Footsie]

Also

Everyone seems to be ignoring the possibility that 2010 might be a sideways range bound market

We haven had one of those for years... now seems like a good time as the Good news is not that good and the bad news is not that bad... bulls/ bears can fight it out

and the talking heads can dream up reasons for 1% rise/falls inthe markets.

[Arbitrage]

The challenge is to beat the ASX All Ords or any of the industry indices. TLS is currently diverging positively from the ASX All Ords. But for how long?
Are there any others you can suggest?

[COLIN]

The challenge is to beat the ASX All Ords or any of the industry indices. TLS is currently diverging positively from the ASX All Ords. But for how long?
Are there any others you can suggest?

Well, that is a challenge we all face, I guess - mathematically about half of the stocks will have out-paced any index over any period of time! Just flicking through my portfolio of stocks that have out-performed over the last 3 months, and which I continue to be happy to hold, are SEK, FGE, CGF, IFL, ANG, amongst others. If you want to stick to the large caps, then the likes of WES and RIO would qualify. (The list excludes mining and oil specs, and bio-techs, all of which offer potential excitement for the more daring investor.)

BUT, OF COURSE, EVEN RECENT PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT NECESSARILY IMPLY CONTINUATION INTO THE FUTURE.

[The Big Ease]

stimulus will continue.
No chance of a double dip within the next twelve months.
Most countries seem to be in agreement on this, so it is unlikely to happen.

[trackers]

Seems to me that a lot of people think we're in for a correction...That stocks have over-run this year etc...Standard sort of reasoning.

I have no idea what's going to happen..But I do know that if you have a look at a 2 year All Ordinaries chart... Or a 5 year one... You'll see that All ords index is currently at where it was in 2005.. thats 4 years of no growth..

[Hoop]

Also

Everyone seems to be ignoring the possibility that 2010 might be a sideways range bound market

We haven had one of those for years... now seems like a good time as the Good news is not that good and the bad news is not that bad... bulls/ bears can fight it out

and the talking heads can dream up reasons for 1% rise/falls inthe markets.

That scenario Footsie has quoted, probably has a just as good chance of happening. It is common for people when using forward thinking to think simple, either black or white, up or down and dismiss the possibilities of other more complex alternatives.

Footsie alternative happened within the DOW bull market cycle back in 2004/05

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW09122009-1.png


However Bull market cycles come in all sorts of shapes and sizes...the All Ords bull market cycle at the same time as the DOW was the basic simple one way...just straight up!!! (notice the BM corrections)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/allords09122009.png

[STRAT]

Hows everyone feeling about the rest of the year?

New high for the DOW last night though hardly a spectacular show.

Nice bounce for oil ( if my data is right )

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds1220.gif

[Corporate]

Thanks P. Much appreciated!

[Dr_Who]

Interesting graph. Thanks.

[drillfix]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds1220.gif

As usual, another excellent update there Phaedrus, cheers~!

[STRAT]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds1220.gifThanks Phaedrus,
Did you cash up in the little red bit at the end? :eek:
Im guessing not yet as I think I recall you saying most of your ASX trades are medium term.

Its been a rocky year but all in all quite profitable.

Now if only I can set those lessons learned in stone with those mistakes made never to be repeated :D

[Hoop]

Hmm, good to see confirmation of my selling decisions. However, I have put a little bit of it back into the market by buying some stocks in firm uptrends - in fact I have a buy order that has not even been filled as the price keeps going up. ...."

KW I found this out when I sold down in the previous BM correction last winter. That correction was shallow and typically the prices spike up quick when a BM correction ends and I had to rebuy some of my stocks at a similar price or higher than I sold them. It looks a good idea on a chart but when the demand returns you can't buy in at the price you want.

This time a made a decision to ride out this BM correction..so far I'm glad I did.

Feeling bullish again started buying late last week..nearly all in now (up from 85% to 95%)

[Phaedrus]

Thanks Phaedrus. Did you cash up in the little red bit at the end?The AllOrds Index hasn't been "Red" since last March. It has dipped into "Magenta" for a few short periods of time, though.


.....Im guessing not yet as I think I recall you saying most of your ASX trades are medium term.Good guess. None of the stocks I am holding have triggered any sell signals, so no selling for me just yet.

This system doesn't generate Sell signals. It simply vetoes Buy signals when the overall market is weak.

[winner69]

Yep Phaedrus the All ords just hanging in there but really not a time to worry or panic.

I look at this on a weekly basis and it is close to breaking the uptrend ... but as you know I am more of a medium to long term trader so do delay things a bit.

To me the crunch time would come if the ASX200 got down to 4522 which is a key Fib level based on the 6700 odd high to the March low.

I take solace in what many commenators say ... it would take some pretty bad news to make the market go down and that there doesn't appear to be any bad news on the horizon

A bit disappointed that my prediction taht the ASX200 would be 5000 by Xmas doesn't look likely .... never mind probably means a good start to the new year.

Once the 5000 mark is broken nothing to stop it heading up and onwards .... nice round numbers like 5000 would be a pretty solid support line for any hiccups that might happen next year (once over the 5000 mark that is)

Like you Phaedrus haven't sold anything lately ... not even the NPX which I keep telling myself should have done its dash

[STRAT]

The AllOrds Index hasn't been "Red" since last March. It has dipped into "Magenta" for a few short periods of time, though.
.Thanks Phaedrus and I have adjusted the colour on my screen :D

[drillfix]

Can anybody share, what exactly do they use to Scan for stocks or what are you favourite tools, methods, paraeters of the likes?

Don't know if many folks care to share this but thought it was a good question nontheless. :rolleyes:

[STRAT]

Can anybody share, what exactly do they use to Scan for stocks or what are you favourite tools, methods, paraeters of the likes?

Don't know if many folks care to share this but thought it was a good question nontheless. :rolleyes: Rumors, here say and guys who know a thing or two about fundamentals. :D

[Hoop]

Yep Phaedrus the All ords just hanging in there but really not a time to worry or panic.

I look at this on a weekly basis and it is close to breaking the uptrend ... but as you know I am more of a medium to long term trader so do delay things a bit.

To me the crunch time would come if the ASX200 got down to 4522 which is a key Fib level based on the 6700 odd high to the March low.

I take solace in what many commenators say ... it would take some pretty bad news to make the market go down and that there doesn't appear to be any bad news on the horizon

A bit disappointed that my prediction taht the ASX200 would be 5000 by Xmas doesn't look likely .... never mind probably means a good start to the new year.

Once the 5000 mark is broken nothing to stop it heading up and onwards .... nice round numbers like 5000 would be a pretty solid support line for any hiccups that might happen next year (once over the 5000 mark that is)

Like you Phaedrus haven't sold anything lately ... not even the NPX which I keep telling myself should have done its dash

Winner..... a White Marubozu yesterday.. 5000 could happen in a few days...;)
Edit: Hmmm maybe not... it looks a lot smaller and has a small tail on my other chart...a small closing marubozu?? ...oh well ..what the hell.. still bullish anyway methinks

[The Big Ease]

stay tuned for the same idiots warning you about this rally all the way through (not safe yet....nope, still not safe!) that next year won't be "as good" as this year.

[winner69]

Sharemarket set to gain up to 19% in 2010

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/sharemarket-set-to-gain-up-to-19-in-2010-20091224-ldwr.html

[winner69]

Shares jump to 2-month high in Xmas rally

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/shares-jump-to-2month-high-in-xmas-rally-20091224-ldnu.html

[ratkin]

All i know is that when i was buying up shares last febuary/march/ april there were some on here calling me an idiot.
Have had the best year ever , just shows the herd were wrong as usual

[Hoop]

Winner..... a White Marubozu yesterday.. 5000 could happen in a few days...;)
Edit: Hmmm maybe not... it looks a lot smaller and has a small tail on my other chart...a small closing marubozu?? ...oh well ..what the hell.. still bullish anyway methinks (post written on the 23rd Dec)



Winner69 Quote.."A bit disappointed that my prediction taht the ASX200 would be 5000 by Xmas doesn't look likely .... never mind probably means a good start to the new year."

22 Dec... All Ords closed at 4724
23 Dec... All Ords closed at 4756 :cool:
24 Dec... All Ords closed at 4803 :cool:

[tricha]

While this is happening, the ASX will also happen, amazing US in doldrums and China still flying. :rolleyes:

ec. 25, 2009, 2:11 a.m. EST · Recommend (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-revises-2008-gdp-higher-by-45-2009-12-25#) · Post: http://i.mktw.net/MW5/content/Story/Images/icon-facebook.gif (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-revises-2008-gdp-higher-by-45-2009-12-25#) http://i.mktw.net/MW5/content/Story/Images/icon-twitter.gif (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-revises-2008-gdp-higher-by-45-2009-12-25#)
China revises 2008 gross domestic product higher by 4.5%

By Chris Oliver (coliver@marketwatch.com), MarketWatch


HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China's government said Friday its gross domestic product was 4.5% larger in 2008 than it had previously estimated, bringing the nation into a position where it could soon overtake Japan as the world's second-largest economy.
The total value of good and services in 2008 was 31.405 trillion yuan ($4.6 trillion), up from its previous estimate of 30.067 trillion yuan, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday.
The statistics bureau issued the revision following its second economic census, which found the services industry grew 9% and the mining and construction sector by 1.9%. The agricultural sector was 0.9% smaller.
Following the revision, the services sector accounted for 41.8% of GDP, up from 40.1% in 2008, it said. The size of agriculture relative to the overall economy fell to 10.7% from 11.3%.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts said Friday's revision was unlikely to prompt any change in China's monetary policy.
"Upward revision of China's GDP numbers are frequent, large and well expected, so we expect little market impact," wrote Merrill economist Ting Lu in a research note following the announcement.
China's central bank said earlier this week it would maintain a "relatively loose monetary policy" in the year ahead.
Lu said China would likely revise higher its economic growth rates for the first three quarters of 2009, with overall economic output for the year likely to reach 33.5 trillion yuan.
That would leave China "just shy" of Japan as the world's second-biggest economy trailing the U.S. this year, and in position to overtake Japan in 2010.
China's economy may reach $5.5 trillion next year, Merrill said. That would displace Japan's economy, which is estimated by the International Monetary Fund to reach $5.19 trillion next year.
China's economy expanded 8.9% in the third quarter from a year earlier, accelerating from a 6.1% on-year expansion in the first quarter. Beijing has forecast that its economy will expand 8% in 2009.
The statistics bureau also on Friday revised higher the nation's energy consumption for 2008 by 2.1%. The revision means the amount of energy China used per unit of GDP fell by 5.2% from 2007 levels.
Prior to the Copenhagen climate talks earlier this month, China pledged that by 2020, it would cut carbon emissions per unit of economic output as much as 45% from 2005 levels.
Chris Oliver is MarketWatch's Asia bureau chief, based in Hong Kong.

[George]

Some oscillators, RSI, Stochastic etc. seem to be heading down
while the DOW is making fresh highs - is this not bearish??

[Hoop]

Some oscillators, RSI, Stochastic etc. seem to be heading down
while the DOW is making fresh highs - is this not bearish??

Yes George, when indicators head down (divergence) it can be a bearish sign...however can't help feeling you are reading these charts with a negative mindset, the DOW chart doesn't look too bad to me..the fresh DOW highs and the recent rising indicators are from small rises and low volume therefore not really inspiring stuff and could be more unreliable than normal.

However the TA indicators are overall positive and enough to keep Phaedrus' DOW chart in the green.

Presently the DOW is calm, investors are not fearful (low VIX values), and the majority in the market are obviously not listening to the death merchants, nor the negative media. Even though the DOW is due (TA Target) for its second BM correction, a long plateau whereabouts the index goes nowhere will eventually do the same job as that of a correction. At this point of time that scenario is looking likely to be the outcome as Foostie commented on recently. Remember the DOW is in a cyclic bull market cycle, where positives outweigh the negatives.

However the All Ords is another story...the indicators are suddenly moving upwards back to positive signaling that this second BM correction has or could be in the process of ending. A close of 4820+ is first confirmation.
The 4900+ will finally confirm and signal a continuation of the primary uptrend which started last March. Volume is a factor to watch, as reaching these index highs on light volume will throw up some doubt...which the negative media will feed off.

On a much lesser chance a drop below 4500- would confirm a downtrend

[Corporate]

Any one got a list of dates that the ASX is closed?

[COLIN]

Any one got a list of dates that the ASX is closed?

See Direct Broking website.

Nikkei heading up.

[drillfix]

All i know is that when i was buying up shares last febuary/march/ april there were some on here calling me an idiot.
Have had the best year ever , just shows the herd were wrong as usual


Yes ratkin, do not follow the pack it can hurt you. You done what the pro's did, Load the boat at exactly the right time. Well done to you.

ps: got a 50K loan there mr.Rich :p


Any one got a list of dates that the ASX is closed?

Why not just ask the exchange that you trade? :D

http://www.asx.com.au/about/operational/trading_calendar/asx/2009.htm

[Skol]

See Direct Broking website.

Nikkei heading up.

On the ASX website but not easy to find.

www.asx.com.au/about/operational/trading_calendar/asx/2009.htm

[drillfix]

On the ASX website but not easy to find.

Sure it is Skol,

Just google: asx trading days


Comes up as the first links, using the ASX search engine is less optimal at times.

[Skol]

My prediction-rally 10-15% Jan/Feb followed by a downturn.

So hang in there.

Best bet - Japanese Shares, been down so long they've gotta come right sometime, and I reckon it's now.

[COLIN]

Best bet - Japanese Shares, been down so long they've gotta come right sometime, and I reckon it's now.

You may be right, but I dunno. I have had similar thoughts, ever since the general market bottomed in March 2009, but have waited in vain for a confirmed, sustainable upturn.

Its hard to fathom how the Nikkei could ever have been up around the 30,000's, as it was 15/20 years ago.

[Hoop]

You may be right, but I dunno. I have had similar thoughts, ever since the general market bottomed in March 2009, but have waited in vain for a confirmed, sustainable upturn.

Its hard to fathom how the Nikkei could ever have been up around the 30,000's, as it was 15/20 years ago.

Sometimes with too much information and complex charting, one loses sight of the wood for the trees.....To get around the information overload and the biases that can cause .... lets go simple...

Two simple charts...Now you can see the lost opportunities..eh.
The question now can be asked...Why were you waiting??

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NIkkei22528122009.png

Colin while you have waited in vain the Nikkei225 has gone up 50% since March 2008.

From your post, were you were distracted by the historical index figure of 30000? History is very useful in charts, with this second simple chart notice how the R&S lines have behaved..spooky..huh

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Nikkei22513year.png

The green arrows are confirmation points of the end of cyclic bear cycle. Great entry points for the less "gung ho" type investors.

The gutsy index investor buying in Sept 2008 or March 2009 on the 2003 resistance line risking 10% loss for a big reward would been smiling all the way to the bank by now.


Skol quote.."...Best bet - Japanese Shares, been down so long they've gotta come right sometime, and I reckon it's now. "
Perhaps, but not yet... one should wait until at least the resistance line breaks (10640). Very close ...could happen any day now. (marked with orange ?).