Bottom or bear rally?

[winner69]

Jeez ..... DOW might hit 9000 today or tomorrow

ASX didn't do too well yesterday so has a lot of catching up to do today ... watch it fly today

.... and the S&P500 approaching 1000

.... and the ASX200 will have another great day ... >4100

What a bear rally .... buy just remember that is all it is ... a bear rally in a 14 year secular bear market

[ratkin]

Unbelievable , the strength of this market has taken all by total suprise.

The media and internet hysteria have to take the credit. All sense of reality was lost earlier in the year. Armageddon , the death of buy and hold , total financial collapse , mad gold bugs, buy a gun and stock up on food etc etc.
In the end the company fundamentals cut through the bullsh1t
Just a shame the nutters have missed out on the huge bounce they have unwittingly created

[The Big Ease]

I agree.
Today took me by surprise, especially the strength of the rally. I was expecting a breather of a few days with small ups and downs. 8 days in row now is really quite amazing.

Kohler wrote yesterday that this was all a mirage, but i reckon he fails to recognise this is all in anticipation of better things to come and i am of the view that the global economy will kick on over the next 6-12 months.

[contrarianinvestor]

Unbelievable , the strength of this market has taken all by total suprise.
I do not entirely agree. See my post on 20 March. Lots of fear and negative news in the media ('experts' predicting further falls), falling interest rates and record low investor sentiment (http://www.wallstreetcourier.com/technician/charts/sentiment2.gif) were all indicators that the time was ripe for a very strong recovery. We'll probably see more gradual rises from here on (and perhaps the occasional fall) since the 'good news' is out.

[ratkin]

Yes , we knew that , i myself was buying big in march/april.
What has suprised everybody is that the subsequent rally /dead cat did not fizzle out in July.

Two weeks ago all the charts /experts etc were pointing too a correction which would either confirm that march was the low or crash back through it.
The market wanted a pullback , what stopped it in its tracks was the unexpected strength of the earnings results and the constant barrage of less worse than expected results

[STRAT]

You know what they say fellas. If it seems too good to be true it probably isnt true. Not that Im complainin, Im tickled pink but doesnt something seem not entirely right with all this?

[Hoop]

.... and the S&P500 approaching 1000

.... and the ASX200 will have another great day ... >4100

What a bear rally .... buy just remember that is all it is ... a bear rally in a 14 year secular bear market


Yep:) a secular bear market rally.
A characteristic of a secular bear cycle is equal cyclic tops... secular analysists thought the peak in 2007 at 14000 was uncharacteristic high and should've been closer to the year 2000 peak at 11500....

The future question to asked is.... which is this secular bear natural cyclic top 11500? or 14000?

If the 11500 is the natural peak of this DOW Secular bear cycle ...then the very recent born again bulls would have missed most of the gains of this cycle....

Now at 9000+ chances are that there isn't much left in the next year or two of this short bull cycle (secular bear rally)

[The Big Ease]

You know what they say fellas. If it seems too good to be true it probably isnt true. Not that Im complainin, Im tickled pink but doesnt something seem not entirely right with all this?

not really.
I thought the ride down was ridiculously over done.
There are still some financial traps around, but the fundamentals are actually turning up. Things are getting better; how much, we will find out in due course.

But I reckon the current levels are more about the economic improvement continuing. If it falters, then we will get a big correction.


Like Phaedrus says, does it matter? How many stocks have doubled tripled in the last 3 months? Just go with the flow. I am learning this as it is my first major bear market.

[STRAT]

not really.
I thought the ride down was ridiculously over done.
There are still some financial traps around, but the fundamentals are actually turning up. Things are getting better; how much, we will find out in due course.

But I reckon the current levels are more about the economic improvement continuing. If it falters, then we will get a big correction.


Like Phaedrus says, does it matter? How many stocks have doubled tripled in the last 3 months? Just go with the flow. I am learning this as it is my first major bear market.No argument here TBE. This is my best year ever but its fun to speculate , predict and dig up conspiracy theories eh?
Are you still on the other side of the Globe TBE?

[The Big Ease]

Yeah still in London...no work :( hehe

Things are turning for the better over here. I have noticed on my local high street (one of the busier destination high streets in london - Upper street in Angel).

They are a bunch of miserale gits. They are proud of, well just sort of being able to stick things out despite the misery and part of their psychology is to talk up how bad things are going to get, which gives them a sense of achievement at putting up with it all.

But really, things never got THAT bad (though the job market has been DEAD) and now that things are getting better, the general media doesnt want to believe it. Its almost like they are being denied an opportunity to be stoic. Hilarious people the English. Bit weird too but generally quite nice and London is one of the great achievements of modern society. So many cultures in the one place and proudly holding onto their identities without so much as a hint of racism (in my experience).

Very few countries in the world would tolerate a population of foreigners in these proportions.

[STRAT]

They are a bunch of miserale gits. They are proud of, well just sort of being able to stick things out despite the misery and part of their psychology is to talk up how bad things are going to get, which gives them a sense of achievement at putting up with it all.

.Mmmm, well it got em through the blitz. Perhaps the psychology you speak of is residual from those times (WW2)

[ratkin]

Im picking this as the last day of the rally.

Wouldnt be suprised if the aussie market starts strongly then comes off after the first hour or so. Those results of microsoft , amazon and amex will play on the mind of the asian markets

[Hoop]

Im picking this as the last day of the rally.

Wouldnt be suprised if the aussie market starts strongly then comes off after the first hour or so. Those results of microsoft , amazon and amex will play on the mind of the asian markets

Microsoft results.. I suspect (and the media won't be advertising the fact too loudly because of possible lawsuits) is being influenced by Open Source competitors such as Ubuntu the makers of the free O/S Linux..etc.
It has taken many years (18 years?) but I think it takes a recession, modern web page designs, network systems not dependent on Windows O/S and a less likeable Windows O/S product (vista)... for the public to finally wake up to the fact that there are equally or better operating systems than Microsoft out there and they are free to use.
At the beginning of the year Microsoft aknowledged that open source competition was becoming a worry for them by the very fact of them creating jobs to combat the emerging Ubuntu threat. see this blog here
(http://blogs.zdnet.com/hardware/?p=3474)

[Footsie]

TBE

I heard on National radio than 60 pubs are closing a week. But not to worry England still has 53,000 left !!

[ratkin]

Real shame , i grew up in a pub in Cornwall , my father was a landlord. The life of the village centred around the pub (except for a few religious types who rallied round the church)
The darts, euchre, dominoes leagues etc are all now falling apart , people would rather sit at home in front of their computers than go out mixing with real people. The village is now inhabited by outsiders who have driven up house prices so high the locals have been forced to move away.

What pubs are left cannot compete with wetherspoons , which is a theme chain (along the lines of robbies , although admittedly better)
Wetherspoons can undercut normal pubs offering cheaper drinks and cheap curries etc.

Result is that the wonderful british pub with its history , friendly atmosphere etc is fast dissapearing , soon they will all be gone.

A tragedy

[STRAT]

Good riddance I say - this is not EnglandYeah but England is where the pubs are disappearing:(

[STRAT]

Too true, but its that pommy infiltration that trys to equate thier experiances on to the NZ pychie. I often wonder if the Landlords Son and the patrons son have the same fond memeriousPerhaps not but I found the corner pubs delightful when I was in England as long as you didnt enter a footie club local on game day. Nuttin like the war zones that pass for pubs over here. I suspect there is a South Auckland factor to add in also.

[Grand Uber]

A lot of people closing positions and taking profits at the end of the day today, could be a rough day tomorrow

[ratkin]

They dont have pubs in this country , just bars.

They are nothing like the english country pubs which are dying out. Even my eighty year old mother visits her local pub , if she was here she wouldnt dream of going into a NZ bar. I myself rarely bother drinking out here.
However on my frequent holidays back to England im never far from the local

[shasta]

They dont have pubs in this country , just bars.

They are nothing like the english country pubs which are dying out. Even my eighty year old mother visits her local pub , if she was here she wouldnt dream of going into a NZ bar. I myself rarely bother drinking out here.
However on my frequent holidays back to England im never far from the local

I'm not so sure you can say we have no pubs...:eek:

Wellington seemingly has more bars per capita than anywhere on the planet...

I'm sure there's probably a bar in Cuba St that only serves red haired midgets...:D

So many theme bars/pubs/clubs - but plenty of the old style sports bars too.

Every freak in the Nations capital is catered for!

[ratkin]

Exactly , bars not pubs

Back on topic i see Twiggs is finally calling a bull market. Two weeks ago he was predicting doom and gloom , hope his newfound bullishness dosent mean we are about to tank

[STRAT]

I'm not so sure you can say we have no pubs...:eek:

Wellington seemingly has more bars per capita than anywhere on the planet...

I'm sure there's probably a bar in Cuba St that only serves red haired midgets...:D

So many theme bars/pubs/clubs - but plenty of the old style sports bars too.

Every freak in the Nations capital is catered for!Thats it in a nutshell Shasta.

Youd be hard pressed to find all that many pubs free of red haired midgets and other minority groups who think they own the joint, sports bar boof heads, out of control 15 year olds with false IDs and S-holes lookin for a punch-up where you can get together with your mates and/or have a meal with your family and then unexpectedly bump into your Grandma at the bar

[STRAT]

Exactly , bars not pubs

Back on topic i see Twiggs is finally calling a bull market. Two weeks ago he was predicting doom and gloom , hope his newfound bullishness dosent mean we are about to tank
Whod have picked the last couple of weeks as as a likely outcome two and a half weeks ago? It cant be sustained and the longer it takes to retrace the harder it will fall. Ratkin, I reckon your earlier call regarding the US tonight is very likely

[winner69]

Like this guys outlook ..... ASX 4900 next June ... thats another 20% odd

Good stuff

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Crystal-ball-gazing-pd20090722-U74KP?OpenDocument

[Hoop]

Exactly , bars not pubs

Back on topic i see Twiggs is finally calling a bull market. Two weeks ago he was predicting doom and gloom , hope his newfound bullishness dosent mean we are about to tank

No worries Ratkin.. Uncle Hoop has some good news for you ....Eccy "the acid man" right hand shoulder is now complete:cool::cool::cool:...told you so:D;) that red line up wasn't blood (see post #521) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6769&page=35)... New DOW TA Target is now 11500. ....9000 + (9000-6500)

After a completed inverted H&S history says chances are good this 11500 could be reached in rather quick time...yep perhaps in time for Xmas:eek:.

If the DOW Targeted 25% increase does occur all things being equal in the perfect world that could relate to the ASX being at 5000... (4000 + 4000 x 25%)

Edit: - make that Winners 4900...Wow what a resistance line level (4900) stretches all the way back to end of Jan 2006

[The Big Ease]

Mmmm, well it got em through the blitz. Perhaps the psychology you speak of is residual from those times (WW2)

Definitely part of it. Also being an island nation (?) near Europe adds to this mentality IMO. They are very proud of the defence of the island since 1066 too.


Footsie, as for the pubs. Mate there is a pub every fifty metres in my neighbourhood. I have a choice of five within 50 metres and this is not uncommon, though you could add 100m to that for other areas.

Many pubs close down, but they are also reopening as other businesses like gastro-pubs and the like. Pubs closing down is not really an indicator as they were closing down during the boom too.

[tricha]

I agree.
Today took me by surprise, especially the strength of the rally. I was expecting a breather of a few days with small ups and downs. 8 days in row now is really quite amazing.

Kohler wrote yesterday that this was all a mirage, but i reckon he fails to recognise this is all in anticipation of better things to come and i am of the view that the global economy will kick on over the next 6-12 months.

It's a tail of two different stories and the ASX is linked strongly to the East.


Surprise rise in Samsung profit


http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/46105000/jpg/_46105974_samsungapljpg.jpg Sales of flat screen televisions are rising

Profits at Samsung Electronics rose 5% to 2.25tn won (£1.09bn; $1.81bn) in the second quarter from the same quarter a year ago, surprising analysts. South Korea's biggest company was helped by rising sales of flat screen televisions and mobile phones as well as higher prices for memory chips.
Samsung said its results were "outstanding" in the current climate.
In previous quarters, Samsung, also the world's second-biggest maker of mobile phones, had seen its profits fall.
The company reported its first ever quarterly loss last year, and profits fell sharply in the first quarter.
"Samsung achieved outstanding results in the second quarter with our consumer electronics business remaining strong and a solid performance in the still challenging components market," Robert Yi, Samsung's vice president said in a statement.
Currency issues
But Mr Yi sounded a note of caution about the months ahead.
"Operating profit may be affected by a possible appreciation of the Korean won and intensifying market competition," he said.
Analysts welcomed the results. "Samsung Electronics will benefit the most from the current chip sector recovery as it is the market leader in the most advanced mass produced DDR3 chips," said Kim Sung-in, chief technology analyst at Kiwoom Securities.
"One of our worries is that its handset unit may not do as well as the markets' hyped-up expectations. Memory chips and flat panels will be the biggest supporter of Samsung Electronics' second half earnings," the analyst said.

[ratkin]

Go Dow, go

Nice suprise , huge sign of strength being green today given microsoft etc

[winner69]

Go Dow, go

Nice suprise , huge sign of strength being green today given microsoft etc

Pretty solid day eh ratkin

We can all look forward to another good week on the NZX and the ASX next week

[trackers]

Pretty solid day eh ratkin

We can all look forward to another good week on the NZX and the ASX next week

Very nice! Up to 9093 and further gains in WTI... Petrols up at the pump in NZ too

Congrats to all those who had their money where their mouths are and enjoyed nice profits this week!

I've got 20% cash, which I'll be firming up a mid-term target with over the weekend

[STRAT]

I reckon your earlier call regarding the US tonight is very likelyWOW, it just keeps going and going :D I really thought it would slide last night.

[Dr_Who]

Time to take real care in the market,

Its really setting itself up for a doosie.

AA

AA pls explain further

[winner69]

Went to a presentation by one of the head honchos of PIMCO this morning.

He said something along the lines of the latest rally was lead by the crappiest of the **** available on Wal St and wasn't really sustainable ... all it was those that should have been shot returning to previous levels

Also said no inflation on the horizon and didn't seem bullish on naything at all to do with the US

[Hoop]

The current short term trend angle is unsustainable, there has been no healthy pullbacks to support such a steep trend,
We are nearing a "short term" top before 4300 in my opinion.

Not Advice

AA

AA I assume you are talking DOW and not the future ASX;)

Well you're in with some very good company including the EW gurus and that guy across the ditch Colin Twiggs (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2009-07-28_markets.php).
They all say the economy is stuffed the banking system is broken, rising unemployment , contracting economies , commodity prices manipulated and out of control all this is going to crash the share price..blah ..blah...
Only wish these guys would remember their basic theories.

Shareprice theory
Economic growth is not the primary driver of stock market returns; stock market returns are driven primarily by a cycle in the P/E ratio

There is no correlation over time between the state of the economy and shareprice it's a myth!! brainwashed into our heads by media..

..Remember that simple rule: Equity markets rebound av58% through a recession period...yep its accurate its happened again recently for the umpteenth time and they still don't believe in it.

For me ...I'm a realist ... I'll keep enjoying this rally and exit when my economic indicators reverse or/and TA indicators tell me so.

[Dr_Who]

EU have just slapped huge tarrifs on Chinese steel imports.

This is of great concern for the global economy. The EU started with tarrifs on dairy which triggered US tarrif in response and now the EU continues with a tarrif on steel from China. The ques now is what is next?

The tarrif war have just begun with the backward thinking EUs.

Protectionism is extremely bad for the global economy. Watch this space.

[Footsie]

whatever the group think is..... doesnt work.

to be the best. You have to work the hardest. And that means doing hours of research to understand market pschology and market cycles.

The media is almost always wrong.

In this game if you work hard, do your research, understand market cycles, TA , all the drivers that influence a market and ignor the media you will be more succesful than the herd.

If you read, listen watch the media you will achieve average returns on below.

In my mind all you need to do is use TA every day, conduct company research (no emotion buy when it looks good, sell when it looks bad) and maybe listen to national radio to keep abrest with an unbaised media telling of news.

REMEMBER THIS:
an experiment was conducted with a individual alone then in a group
in a group situation, the indiviual was in a room when smoke started coming under the door. because the group (actor's paid by the testers) did nothing the individual did nothing despite the obvious danger.
However, when alone the individual fled the room.


To be successful you must think ALONE... even if you are wrong.

[Lego_Man]

EU have just slapped huge tarrifs on Chinese steel imports.

This is of great concern for the global economy. The EU started with tarrifs on dairy which triggered US tarrif in response and now the EU continues with a tarrif on steel from China. The ques now is what is next?

The tarrif war have just begun with the backward thinking EUs.

Protectionism is extremely bad for the global economy. Watch this space.

Doesnt surprise me, theyve been economic dumb****s for some time. This is potentially a huge development if it snowballs.

[macduffy]

EU have just slapped huge tarrifs on Chinese steel imports.

This is of great concern for the global economy. The EU started with tarrifs on dairy which triggered US tarrif in response and now the EU continues with a tarrif on steel from China. The ques now is what is next?

The tarrif war have just begun with the backward thinking EUs.

Protectionism is extremely bad for the global economy. Watch this space.

Yes, not good news but important not to over-react.

The tariffs apparently range from 17.7% to 39.2% but they will replace a temporary tariff of 24.2% which has been in place since April.

Let's hope that leaders will see some sense and remember the experience of the protectionist 1930's.

[STRAT]

Let's hope that leaders will see some sense and remember the experience of the protectionist 1930's.Fat chance Macduffy. Youd be lucky if they remember the 90s

[macduffy]

Sad, but true, STRAT.

I guess I was overcome by an attack of nostalgic idealism - or something.

;)

[JBmurc]

I've taking some profits today sitting on round 50k in cash atm sold down some of my Gold interests .....believe the overall market will keep flat to negative with a couple up days per week overall long term resources will do well short term I'm looking to buy cheaper rather than paying up at this stage

still believe we could see a major move down round OCT
placing tight stops this time

[JBmurc]

good for a laugh the presenter is a idiot CNBC -peter schiff (A guy I follow)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vc5BKWEwShc&feature=channel_page

[shasta]

I've taking some profits today sitting on round 50k in cash atm sold down some of my Gold interests .....believe the overall market will keep flat to negative with a couple up days per week overall long term resources will do well short term I'm looking to buy cheaper rather than paying up at this stage

still believe we could see a major move down round OCT
placing tight stops this time

Still holding onto CFE?

There quarterly must be due today/tomorrow?

[JBmurc]

Still holding onto CFE?

There quarterly must be due today/tomorrow?

yeah I sure am till they reach $1+ gotta love the buying strenght today

I'd say they will annouce Qtr tomorrow with the likes of STX

[dragonz]

yeah I sure am till they reach $1+ gotta love the buying strenght today

I'd say they will annouce Qtr tomorrow with the likes of STX

Im in the que for 36.5 for my holding in CFE. Hopefully this will sell today or tomorrow opening.

[ratkin]

This rally highlighting dangers of sitting on the sidelines

[Dr_Who]

Holy shiat this bull**** is not slowing down but picking up speed. :eek::)

[STRAT]

Holy shiat this bull**** is not slowing down but picking up speed. :eek::)Yup. If it keeps up for another month to 6 weeks I will be a very happy chap

[JBmurc]

I might have mentioned this before, but the BIGGEST lesson I learnt from the 2000 crash was that you needed to jump back in boots and all before the market turns and the "all clear" is given.

Buffet said it too - buy in fear, sell in greed. I think we are back in the greed phase, so it will pay to be careful. The market will "correct" again before heading higher, so we will probably get good opportunities to exit and re-enter. Or you can just hang on for the ride.

Yep I agree another play I like is to move funds out of high run specs during boom times to cash rich solid cash flow postive producers it saved my ass abit over the last 2yrs thanks to NZO then once the market an some of my smaller holding tanked sold down the NZO holding an topped up cheap undervalued specs.

It all depends on your risk levels safest is cash deposits bonds etc ,

[soulman]

Im in the que for 36.5 for my holding in CFE. Hopefully this will sell today or tomorrow opening.

It got there a little bit. I guess you might still be in the cue.

The market has gone berserk and a lot of commentator are using the 4250 - 4300 resistonce area. The market can't go on like this and a correction will be forthcoming. It would be a healthy correction though, not the end of the rally.

Also, today is the end of month squaring for fund manager, hence the big volume in all the major players, espec the big 4 banks.

I can't see any bargain in the market anymore, except for the penny dreadful.

[zorba]

.

"U.S. Stocks Gain, Dollar Slumps After GDP Beats Estimates"


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602002&sid=aVqTImOqIuUc



And Nymex oil is on the up:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_U9


Tapis is flirting with US$75 / barrel:

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil


GO ENERGY STOCKS GO !!!!!

.

[winner69]

http://business.theage.com.au/business/has-the-party-already-started-20090801-e56z.html

Has the party already started? Of course it has

But stocks will still double in the next year or so says the guru in the story

Wonder what the profit takers of early last week have done with their cash?

Always wondered who buys off profit takers .... it would have to be losers wouldn't it?

Trying to say that 'profit taking' seems a silly term .... but assume that the next trade starts off wth zero profit so one can profit take again

[winner69]

While still a "work in progress" a chart such as this leaves little room for doubt as to whether you should be in the market at the moment. At its simplest, you should not be entering when it is red and want to be in when it is green.
I see no need to make the big calls - all you need to do is act appropriately each day according to the situation as it presents itself. Bull market Bottom or Bear rally? Who knows? Who cares!
This is a pretty volatile market, though. See how it went straight from "weak" to "strong" without the usual magenta "strengthening" phase between.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AllOrds716.gif

I wont be posting anything for a little while. After one frost too many, Mrs P and I are fleeing the wintry weather.

If Mr P updated this chart it would be the dark green stuff and importantly last weeks close is higher then the previous high off mid June

And once punters realise that the world isn't such a bad place when the announcements come out the ASX sure to go even higher ... next stop 4500 and then 5000 by Christmas

[Phaedrus]

Here you are W69. Looking good eh?

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AllOrds82S.gif

[Footsie]

I think a move to 4,300 will coincide with sp500 to 1000

And there we will sit for a while....

This bear market is looking more and more like the 1973-73 bear and subsequent recovery...

massive collapse the V shaped recovery.

on the down side.......... most of the gains for this bull may well be in. i.e. perhaps only another 10-20% upside over next 18 months......... and a lot of sideways action.

google a chart of 1973-1977 and you will see what i mean.

[Hoop]

Next week will be interesting, Between now and 4300, it would be a tall ask to push through that resistance level cleanly without some sort of pullback or consolidation first, especially given the steepness of the rise leading into it.

http://i650.photobucket.com/albums/uu224/arranging/xao_ax_price_daily30jan08_to_21aug0.png

I also note the very high volume on Friday, well above normal, this often occurs near turning points.
Monday could be strong, marking the start of a blow-off top and a pullback to support.

Historically high Volume has proved to be a good thing with a rally which followed, but this high volume usually occurred when the All Ordinaries was oversold not overbought as it is in this case.

A convincing move above 4300 would be very positive.

Just a observation so we will have to wait and see.

AA

AA ... Observations from many other World equity indexes also show those volatility peaks (Oct/Nov2008) the DOW (9600) S&P (1000) NZX (2940).The FTSE shape is different and on The Hang Seng chart it is absent.

These Oct/Nov 2008 volatity peaks are part of and included in the Inverted Head & shoulder pattern that is in the process of forming and nearing completion on most world indexes. I won't repeat myself here because I mentioned all this in my post over 2 weeks ago...nothing has changed since that post #514 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6769&page=35) except that rally (which I and other H&S theorists expected to happen) has now commenced and this uptrend will continue until the finish of the right hand shoulder pattern and complete the whole formation.

This Inverted H&S formation has been forming for over 11 months now, so an excellent chance it will go to full completion.

From now on.. a steeper than normal rally until total completion of the Inv H&S formation is foreseen. From history of other Inv H&S patterns the right shoulder uptrend is a little more flatter in respect to the left hand shoulder which is steeper in decline so allow time to play a role.

What does all this mean????
In theory if the inv H&S completes its formation:

1....the :-

ASX will be at 5000
NZX 3350
DOW 11500
S&P 1210
FTSE 5350
Nikkei 12000
Note : I have mentioned 6 indexes but there are more indexes which have this same Inv H&S type pattern.
Main world index Exceptions are Hang Seng double bottom and Shanghei a near perfect u shape

2.....Once these levels in #1 are reached, expect the short uptrend line to decelerate and breakdown.

3.. a brief period of flat perhaps a correction to test the much flatter primary uptrend line which could be (depending how fast the rally was) 15% below the end of the rally peak. Remember it is a bull market cycle so after the correction a higher high is expected (technically impossible to have a long term inv H&S completed within a bear market cycle).


Interesting for AA in relation to his post

Will the ASX 4300 resistance break??
Yes..nearly guarantee it as 100%..remember this Inv H&S formation is a long term animal so it may be a week away or it could happen tomorrow depending on the group investor mind set.

All world indexes are at differing stages of a new bull market cycle.

O interest only is that the major Iraq interventionist countries have less mature Equity index cycles than the other in the world..DOW S&P 500 just emerged out of the devastating bear cycle...Shanghai is the most advanced now in Bull market (2) phase and the FTSE being the laggard still emerging from bear to be just about entering TA bull market cycle.

Believe it:D..... the NZX50 market cycle is ahead of the ASX market cycle.

ASX has yet to break those volatity peaks at 4300 that AA mentioned in his chart.. has the NZX broken its volatility peaks (2940) in November 2008? ...Yes it has occurred on friday 24th July) so expect the ASX (4300) to follow with the FTSE (4600) and then the DOW (9600) S&P500 (1000). The rest of the markets have already been there and done that.

The NZX chart (see below) is following the more advanced markets and is an example of things to come for the laggards ASX FTSE DOW and S&P..

....note the NZX50 near perfect inv H&S formation (nearly complete) to that of the DOW chart I posted in my post #514 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6769&page=35)

Also note that there is only about 10% upside left in this steep rally phase in all inv H&S global equity markets mentioned..the laggards (DOW S&P500 FTSE ASX) have about 15% left so if you not in now.. there is not much left.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/nz5031072009.png

[Hoop]

Hi Hoop that would be a fantastic outcome and I look forward to it coming to fruition.

Do you trade indices by any chance?

AA

Nah..too busy trying to figure out what I have done right this year in share investing/trading.:) blue ink everywhere...unusual for me:)

Joking aside...Always had a passion for Share market history / cyclic market behaviour / human investor behaviour / Market Research etc,
So ..any thread on ST that has one of the above topics you will have to chop off my fingers to stop me from posting.

...practicing forex with play money atm so I guess can't rule out index trading neither in the future...its always nice to add another string to your bow..it sort of broadens your knowledge overall, especially in TA. Wanted to trade with copper at the end of last year year, but found it hard to set up a suitable account to trade in commodities, so took the easy route and bought shares in copper companies on the ASX instead.

[Dr_Who]

KABOOM!

This bullmarket keeps booming! WOW :eek::)

[winner69]

KABOOM!

This bullmarket keeps booming! WOW :eek::)


S&P500 over 1000 .... what a milestone

And the ASX will take off again today ..... ASX200 heading towards that 4500

[Hoop]

S&P500 over 1000 .... what a milestone

And the ASX will take off again today ..... ASX200 heading towards that 4500

Combination of the overseas equity markets 1+% rise and the big 5% rise last night in metal prices there's an excellent chance we will see the breaking of that 4300 resistance level today as shown on AA's chart.

[ratkin]

We have lift off , the bears will today finally realise they have bitten the dust.

Whose idea was "cash for clunkers" ? Seems to have galvanised the auto industry . As for Barclays , it almost obscene how much profit they making already.

If thats a financial crisis can we have more of them please

[The Big Ease]

Ratkin,

I've been saying for a while now that the financial crisis is over. What we are dealing with now is an economic recession. Fairly standard stuff IMO, though with unusually high levels of pump priming.


Next problem is inflation.

[Dr_Who]

There is alot of money (including the funds) that are short in this market and playing catch up.

[Stranger_Danger]

Hooray for cash for clunkers!

Question : If I give you a massive subsidy to buy a years worth of canned food today, how much canned food will you buy in 6 months time?

Given that you need food more than cars, what impact will cash for clunkers have on future demand?

Does a system that encourages somebody who is substantially poorer than they were in 2007 to buy a clunker from a homeless person that is sleeping in it for $100, to then give it to the Government to buy a subsidised new car from Government Motors which results in the financially challenged dealer shifting inventory now - but collecting from the Government later - really, really, really make sense?

So financials and automotive are to lead the US out? Oh what a COINCIDENCE that this is where all the easy Govt moral hazard money has flown to!

Disc : In the market, temporarily enjoying lots and lots of moral hazard easy money but, oh boy, oh boy, oh boy.......

[The Big Ease]

Check manufacturing, housing figures as well (not sure about retail).
They are pulling their weight and probably driving the general recovery.
Financials are a leading indicator - more than a significant contributor at this point - given that is where it all started.

[Dusty]

Ratkin,

I've been saying for a while now that the financial crisis is over. What we are dealing with now is an economic recession. Fairly standard stuff IMO, though with unusually high levels of pump priming.


Next problem is inflation.

Next problem is commercial mortgage-backed securities, RealPoint credit rating agency claim there is $29b where the borrowers are not keeping up interest payments for the last 12 months, delinquency rates are rising as are vacancy rates and defaults on loans.
Vacancy rates in Beijing and Shanghai could rise to 35% from 17% and 22% in 2010(CLSA)
So very much in contrast to the residential property data from the last couple of weeks. I think we are looking at the and of 09 and into 2010 before the full effects of this are felt.

[Phaedrus]

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AllOrds84.gif

[Footsie]

MR P

are you at all concerned that the uptrend line is now vertical? surely that means we are in for some pain soon?

[Phaedrus]

We must expect a correction/retracement/reversion to the mean at some point. In the meantime I am very happy to be fully invested.
Worry about weakness when it starts becoming apparent.
Don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes.
Sufficient unto the day are the evils thereof.
Don't cry until you are hit.
The anticipation of pain is often worse than the pain itself.
Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
With a sound exit strategy in place you can relax and let the hand play itself out.

[Lizard]

Market is starting to make me nervous now. Would really like to see some outlook statements that talk about customer demand beginning to increase, rather than reduced costs contributing to profit. I know the market runs ahead - just thought we might need another 12-18 months of tight margins for those with the strongest balance sheets and tightest operations to eye-ball their weaker competition out of the market?

I was pretty convinced in March/April, but struggling to find value here if profits stagnate another 12 months.

[ratkin]

Market is starting to make me nervous now.

Market only just coming off the bottom , bet you were more nervous on the way down ;)

[winner69]

S&P500 held the 1000 mark today .... a good sign

Anybody remember the celebrations in 1998 when the S&P500 hit 1,000 ... those were the days more than 10 years ago

No wonder they say the lost decade for investors ... and believers opf secular markets (in a secular bear at the mo) would say the S&P500 will still be about 1000 odd in 2015

So the trick is to make money in the bear rallys (like now) and don't lose it when things drop back to normal

I think the ASX will have a reasonable day today after yesterdays late down turn ... still more to go in this rally

[Dr_Who]

Copper is in BULL mode. No stopping this commodity.

[Footsie]

I actually think the asx will be down again today. wouldnt be surprised to see 3 down days in a row . its long overdue.

[dragonz]

Yes, it cant keep going up forever. Plus I need a pull back so I can buy stuff!

I've been reading some of the US news, seems now that the TA trends have begun to move upwards, it seems like the fund managers are now putting their cash back into the market. So the "wall of money" theory should push the rally along for a while longer as liquidity increases.

Back to another discussion - TA vs FA. I am a believer of the theory that FA (value investors) bottom feed to their little hearts content, and when enough of them start buying, they cause a trend change, then the TA traders notice and begin to pile in. Thus a stock/market begins the second (stronger ) phase of an uptrend. If this holds true, then we are only at the beginning of the second phase of the rally :-)

(third phase being when the novices/idiots pile in believing its "safe" to do so, and stocks/market becomes extremely overpriced. At this point FA investors begin selling, then TA traders sense the downtrend and start selling, leaving the inexperienced behind to wear all the losses).

KW. I exackly agree with you on both the pullback and your FA versus TA theory. Well said. :D

[shasta]

Yes, it cant keep going up forever. Plus I need a pull back so I can buy stuff!

I've been reading some of the US news, seems now that the TA trends have begun to move upwards, it seems like the fund managers are now putting their cash back into the market. So the "wall of money" theory should push the rally along for a while longer as liquidity increases.

Back to another discussion - TA vs FA. I am a believer of the theory that FA (value investors) bottom feed to their little hearts content, and when enough of them start buying, they cause a trend change, then the TA traders notice and begin to pile in. Thus a stock/market begins the second (stronger ) phase of an uptrend. If this holds true, then we are only at the beginning of the second phase of the rally :-)

(third phase being when the novices/idiots pile in believing its "safe" to do so, and stocks/market becomes extremely overpriced. At this point FA investors begin selling, then TA traders sense the downtrend and start selling, leaving the inexperienced behind to wear all the losses).

Not sure i agree with all that re TA v FA.

I do about FA leading the volume changes that TA act on

But one thing for sure, if everyone on Sharetrader started using TA, those with the better data/charting ability would leave the inexperienced high & dry.

Not all TA followers can get in on the best signals (at the bottom) & out at the top, & of course not all trades are profitable!

Thats why so many fail at it, whilst those proficient in TA do nicely.

Both TA & FA need each other, & those using both generally outperfrom those who don't.

[slam]

IMO Bear. I'll be out of the market before sept hits or when NZ$ hits 69.5 ish;)
Something to ponder
Cheers
Slam

[Phaedrus]

I've been reading some of the US news, seems now that the TA trends have begun to move upwards, the fund managers are now putting their cash back into the market. Begun to move upwards? I can only assume that you sourced this information from a magazine in a doctor's waiting room, KW! TA trends began to move up 5 months ago.
Certainly, anyone following the actions of fund managers deserves mediocre returns.


I am a believer of the theory that FA (value investors) bottom feed to their little hearts content.... Nah! FA investors are no better than anyone else at picking bottoms. They buy on value, when a stock can be picked up at a discount to its true "worth". ST is littered with poignant examples of FA investors buying "undervalued" stocks - which continued to fall. I am loathe to post details because the poor sods have suffered enough.
Tell me, when would "Value investors" have been buying this (http://h1.ripway.com/78963/PRC86.gif ) stock do you think? At the bottom? - Nah! All the way down!!

[Phaedrus]

PS Phaedrus - why would you post a stock link to an illegal/scam/infected website? What! Is this true?

ALL my charts are hosted there. Every single chart that I post on ST is directly sourced from Ripway. I am totally unaware of any scams or viruses on that site. I have never ever even seen any spam there. The Ripway web-hosting site has been running for years - surely it can not be illegal?

The charts are simple .gif graphic files. Are these deemed to be a hazard? Should I use another format? Do I need to change my web-space provider?

HELP!!!!!!!

[Phaedrus]

no-one else click on this link - it is classified as a dangerous site and could harm your computer.
Here it is without your clicking on it. Same file. Same web-provider. I suggest wearing a condom before looking at it. You can't be too careful!

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/PRC86.gif

[Capitalist]

The site is fine Phaedrus. I have also linked to your posts in the public domain and no one has complained.

Maybe it is just cookies on some users computers. Don't worry about it.

[wbosher]

Advisory provided by Safe Browsing

Diagnostic page for h1.ripway.com/bazoooka07

What is the current listing status for h1.ripway.com/bazoooka07?
This site is not currently listed as suspicious.

What happened when Google visited this site?
Of the 1 pages we tested on the site over the past 90 days, 0 page(s) resulted in malicious software being downloaded and installed without user consent. The last time Google visited this site was on 2009-05-24, and the last time suspicious content was found on this site was on 2009-05-24.
Malicious software includes 1 exploit(s).

This site was hosted on 1 network(s) including AS6939 (HURRICANE).
Has this site acted as an intermediary resulting in further distribution of malware?

Over the past 90 days, h1.ripway.com/bazoooka07 did not appear to function as an intermediary for the infection of any sites.

Has this site hosted malware?
Yes, this site has hosted malicious software over the past 90 days. It infected 1 domain(s), including doiop.com/banooota/.

[wbosher]

I've visited this site countless times checking out P's charts and never had a problem.

I access this site from work generally, which is one of NZ largest ISP's, if there was an issue with this site it would definetaly be blocked!!

[Lego_Man]

It will just be KW's antivirus software/browser security settings being over-zealous.

No cause for alarm.

[wbosher]

Breath Phaedrus, breath. ;)

[bermuda]

Breath Phaedrus, breath. ;)

wbosher,
Breathe a breath.
lol

[wbosher]

Oops, I'm usually quite fussy about my spelling too. Too near the end of the day. ;)

[wbosher]

I access this site from work which is Australia's largest ISP, and I am blocked.

Thats interesting...we probably work for the same company, sort of.

[winner69]

Google " Australia's largest ISP" and several claim to be it

So you guys may not work for the same company after all

[wbosher]

I really should have said "telco" instead of ISP.

[wbosher]

Just Googled "Australia largest telco" as well, and the list is just as long.

You may be right Winner69.

[wbosher]

Then I guess we do. :)

[winner69]

I think the ASX will have a reasonable day today after yesterdays late down turn ... still more to go in this rally


and so it turned out to be ... up 1.4% and ASX200 certainly heading towards 4500

Real positive momentum so why not stay in

[Footsie]

US retreating from the SP1000 mark.... will be tough for Aussie to hold up today given its a friday as well. 950 possible? ASx maybe back to 4100.

However, can I be as bold to say that we could reach 5,000 within 12 months to complete the H& S move.

that leaves 16% upside from here..... a reasonable figure.

I suspect most of the big blue chips have had their major move for the moment.... strength will now trickle down the line...

In Bear Markets investors look for profit growth. (as its hard to find)
In Bull Markets they look for value (as its hard to find.... in a bear market value is everywhere)

[Hoop]

Winner69 can you help me?..Do you know when the secular cycles for the All Ords started and ended?


Looking at the very long term All Ords chart ...yep plenty of room to move up... The Chart looks rather rosey for the next few years doesn't it?

The Long term All Ords looks a better bet than the long term DOW or S&P500

Love this upward momentum from a really low level.:) Coppock swinging up from a low negative base as well.

Looking from the present day to say 3 years into the future a buy and hold strategy doesn't seem like a bad option that everyone seems to think, does it? The chart seems to be pointing in the right direction.

This chart doesn't look good for the doomdayists expecting a crash to form a lower bottom in the near future ,does it?

If for some catastrophic reason the doomsayers get their way and a new bottom is formed this would break the All Ord giant primary uptrend would end and signal a start to a long term downtrend this would paint a very bleak future.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/ASXlongterm07082009.png

[Timo]

Yahoo Finance shows just under 6 billion traded.Just over 2 the day before.$US dollars I presume.
Direct Broking shows 4.3 billion.Should be in $NZ.
Dodgy data somewhere!

[Timo]

Hard to believe the data but truth is stranger than...
Cheers for the insight AA.

[moimoi]

Yahoo Finance shows just under 6 billion traded.Just over 2 the day before.$US dollars I presume.
Direct Broking shows 4.3 billion.Should be in $NZ.
Dodgy data somewhere!

AA et al,

The NZ Herald (the old school newspaper version) has volume at 5,888,266,681 with $ value of $7,169,408,554

turnover seems to have been boosted by GPTGroupstp @ 4,071,046,330

cheers
Moi.

[winner69]

ASX200 closes week at 4300 -- up more than 1% for the week and now 37% up from the March lows

ANother solid end to the week on the US markets bodes well for the ASX next week

We still 36% away from the all time high that didn't seem that long ago .... and not even recovered half the full retracement from the highs to the lows. The next Fib level for the ASX200 and then the 50% mark at 4957 (which also was a pretty strong support area on the way down to 3600)

So plenty more upside yet for ASX ..... we'll get there so why worry about minor retracements on the way

[wbosher]

So plenty more upside yet for ASX .....

God, I hope so. As a complete novice, I've actually managed to lose quite a bit of money this year. :eek:

My last two trades have been successful, so I hope maybe I'm starting to get the hang of this (thanks to everyone on this forum) and will start making some money from now on. :)

[STRAT]

God, I hope so. As a complete novice, I've actually managed to lose quite a bit of money this year. :eek:

My last two trades have been successful, so I hope maybe I'm starting to get the hang of this (thanks to everyone on this forum) and will start making some money from now on. :)Make sure you figure out where you went right on the last two. As important if not more important than figuring out where you went wrong. On my own part I have mistaken luck for skill more than once :o

[wbosher]

Make sure you figure out where you went right on the last two. As important if not more important than figuring out where you went wrong.

I think I've figured out where I went wrong. It all appears to have come down to bad timing. Getting in when the prevailing long or medium term trend was heading south, and mis-reading the charts patterns. Also, entering a trade too far above a level of support, only to watch it fall below my stop loss (which I didn't always act on and ended up losing even more :eek:). I think I've got it right for the last two, or at least the last one, the one before that had an element of luck.

Only having enough money to trade one stock at a time is a little annoying, although having said that it may have saved me a lot of money at the beginning. ;)

Still learning though... :D

[contrarianinvestor]

only to watch it fall below my stop loss
I won't recommend using stop losses. They are intuitively attractive and brokers love it because it creates commissions. Warren Buffett once made a remark that traditional wisdom is long on tradition, short on wisdom - stop losses are one of these. The world's best investors such as Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch never use stop losses - go figure.

Ken Fisher, founder of Fisher Investments and one of the best investors of all time commented in his book The Only Three Questions That Count that stop-losses is a "popular tactical myth . . . on average they lose money . . . they feel good but are bad". Fisher also made a comment that "the only stop-loss certainty is increased transaction costs" and that "brokers love stop losses and promote them"

If you see shares as part-ownership in a business then history tells us to buy shares in good companies when they're cheap. The stop-loss strategy encourages investors to sell when shares are cheap. There are times when selling is wise but that will depend on analysing the business, not its share price.

[macduffy]

The use or otherwise of stop-losses boils down to whether or not one is a long term investor or a trader. WB is not a trader so he's not looking at using stop losses.

I'd be surprised if any out and out traders don't employ some version of a stop loss. I know I do on the rare occasions that I buy anything with other than a long term perspective.

[Dr_Who]

Stop losses are good for downward moving market, but not for uptrending market.

[shasta]

Stop losses are good for downward moving market, but not for uptrending market.

Phaedrus said it best when he mentioned, stop losses are better than nothing!

There are a whole host of indicators that would highlight a sell signal, for traders, but for investors stop losses should be used to protect capital.

Dr Who - stop losses aren't much better in a downward market due to short selling, & no harm in using trailing stops in an uptrending market, as no one wants to give up gains!

[STRAT]

I reckon anyone who didnt use em last year would have been hurting plenty and lucky to be back to square one now after a 5 month rally that has been simply amazing. Cant for the life of me see how anyone gets by without em.

Shasta I think you will find that remark by Phaedrus was in reference to trailing stops.

[Dr_Who]

I reckon anyone who didnt use em last year would have been hurting plenty and lucky to be back to square one now after a 5 month rally that has been simply amazing. Cant for the life of me see how anyone gets by without em.

Shasta I think you will find that remark by Phaedrus was in reference to trailing stops.

I never used stop loses last few years.

On a fundamental basis, I saw the market was over valued and sold out 85% of my property and equity portfolio. I only held onto some shares for fun. I started buying again when everyone hated commodities, I bought more when it dropped and got a great average price.

Now that the market had a great run, i just sit back relax and enjoy the ride. Abit harder to find value in this market, but they are out there.

As you can see I am not a believer in stop loses.

[STRAT]

I never used stop loses last few years.

On a fundamental basis, I saw the market was over valued and sold out 85% of my property and equity portfolio. I only held onto some shares for fun. I started buying again when everyone hated commodities, I bought more when it dropped and got a great average price.

Now that the market had a great run, i just sit back relax and enjoy the ride. Abit harder to find value in this market, but they are out there.

As you can see I am not a believer in stop loses.That sounds a lot like a stop loss stratergy to me Doc ;)

[contrarianinvestor]

Cant for the life of me see how anyone gets by without em.


For a start the top 10 investors of the last century (http://www.allbusiness.com/banking-finance/financial-markets-investing-investment/6723513-1.html) did. Show me one trader who is using stop-loss strategies who has come even close to the results of those investors. Perhaps they were only lucky.

Below are the words of someone who has made US$37 billion through investments:

“The strategy says nothing else matters: A downtick of a given magnitude automatically produces a huge sell order . . . The less these companies are being valued at, says this approach, the more vigorously they should be sold . . Considering that huge sums are controlled by managers following such Alice-in-Wonderland practices, is it any surprise that markets sometimes behave in aberrational fashion?” – Berkshire Hathaway 1987 annual report.

[Dr_Who]

Hey Strat, Google Jim Rogers and learn from him. He is one of the very few guru investors I follow.

[STRAT]

Fellas,
Surely anything you sell which is going down or sold for less than you paid for it is a stop loss in action.

Why did you sell your real estate Doc? To stop loss I would assume

Only people who never make any mistakes or bad investments can honestly say they never need take action to stop losses.

I know of no such people

[Dr_Who]

There is a huge difference between taking profit (cashing up) and a stop loss.

After making a capital gain of 100% in the property, you would be foolish not to take profit. This is especially so when interest rate was climbing near their highs. The sign was there when the taxi driver was giving me advice how and where I should put my money in the property sector. :D

[fungus pudding]

There is a huge difference between taking profit (cashing up) and a stop loss.

After making a capital gain of 100% in the property, you would be foolish not to take profit.

The way to make money in property is to accumulate. I'd say after a gain of 100% you'd be nuts to sell. That's the time to tick it up and buy again. The only time to sell property is when you finally can't stand the sight of tenants anymore, and inadvertently throw up every time you go near the place. (I'm assuming you are talking about residential) You can generally last to about 4 or 5 properties before that happens. So while no one is looking, have a good tooss outside one of your properties, sell the lot, and get into commercial. It's bliss.:):):)

[soulman]

I am with the Doc. Good on you for selling your property when you see an overheated market. Might as well lock in profits and sit on cash.

I was telling people to sell properties in WA when it was going berserk too when houses doubled in 3 years.

Every investors are different and have different circumstances. I do not believe in stop losses. Phaedrus was talking about trailing stops, a completely different thing. Not sure if P have stop loss strategy either because the guy probably (90 percent) enter a stock at the turning point and straight away profited, hence he is only using trailing stop.

What I have learned now is to never put a sell order in the market. I put FMS on 6.9 cents 3 weeks ago and see what happen yesterday and today. My EDE sell order of 6.1 cents was cancelled by the broker because it was left too long. A couple of days later, the shares went berserk and I thought I sold it for 6.1 cents only to realise I still have it, eventually selling it for 7.3 cents.

Conclusion......I guess stop losses is very feasible if the capital amount is more than you want to risk. For eg, some investor buy a share for X amount and don't mind losing the whole X amount, then stop losses is irrelevant to him or her.

[winner69]

All looking good again on US markets .... temp blip over ...the bear rally continues

[Hoop]

All looking good again on US markets .... temp blip over ...the bear rally continues


the bear rally continues....Yep... until year 2012 (with a big crash) ..

Will this equity crash forewarn the beginning of another Great Depression??...maybe. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-meltdown-will-come-in-2012-2009-08-11?pagenumber=2)

[Dr_Who]

the bear rally continues....Yep... until year 2012 (with a big crash) ..

Will this equity crash forewarn the beginning of another Great Depression??...maybe. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-meltdown-will-come-in-2012-2009-08-11?pagenumber=2)

He is a brave man to put a date on his prediction.

It is simply put that most people will look into their bank account and see that they are getting bugger all on their interest, so they have to put their money elsewhere, either the equities market or property market.

This bull rally will continue until the rates move up.

[Footsie]

3% p.a or 3% a month... tough call

[wbosher]

Only 3% ? ;)

[contrarianinvestor]

I am starting to sense a bit more optimism after the market has bounced back significantly. Go back to the start of this thread to see the abundance of bearishness in March. I don't think many shares (except for a few small caps) offer exceptional value anymore. I'm not saying that this upward trend will reverse. I'm saying that we will soon move into bubble territory if we see similar price increases to what we've seen in the last four months.

[winner69]

ASX200 closes week at 4300 -- up more than 1% for the week and now 37% up from the March lows

ANother solid end to the week on the US markets bodes well for the ASX next week



That was last Friday .... jeez wayne ... ASX200 might hit 4.500 tomorrow ... this is some bear rally

[contrarianinvestor]

.. this is some bear rally
Are you saying that we are still in a bear market??

[macduffy]

Are you saying that we are still in a bear market??

I can see winner's tongue firmly in his cheek from here.

;)

[winner69]

I can see winner's tongue firmly in his cheek from here.

;)

.... so no need to respond to contrarianinvestor then

[COLIN]

I too don't see a lot of fundamental value or many seriously technical oversold situations but trends last longer than many think because most people base their perception of fair value on a relation to current price and therefore buying on any given weakness.

AA

As McDunk would say, what does "fundamental value" have to do with the price of fish?!

The big hand on the Economic Clock just keeps moving round the dial, as it has done for the last 200 years, and there is nothing that you or I can do to stop it. It is now well past the 6 o'clock position, and share prices are steadily rising. The next phase will be easier credit markets (around the 9 p.m. position) and the last phase will be rising property prices (about 12 p.m.) And then it all starts downhill again - higher interest rates, followed by falling share prices, followed by falling house prices.

I've seen it all before.

[contrarianinvestor]

.... so no need to respond to contrarianinvestor then
OK a bit slow over here.

[STRAT]

Shall I change the name of the thread to "The Bottom is in" then? :D

[STRAT]

I still like my "Bear Bottom Rally" idea :rolleyes: ;)Dont you mean bare bottom rally? :D

[Hoop]

Shall I change the name of the thread to "The Bottom is in" then? :D

Strat.. Seriously...Don't change the name....start a new thread instead.

Reason:
This thread will be a valuable piece of history and would make a good reference for any future research.......shows individuals thinking & behaviour and how they are all affected by media and group input, during and immediately after a sharemarket bear market cycle.

In years to come when the next bear is upon us this thread will be very useful.


Thanks Strat for starting this thread.

[fungus pudding]

Strat.. Seriously...Don't change the name....start a new thread instead.

Reason:
This thread will be a valuable piece of history and would make a good reference for any future research.......shows individuals thinking & behaviour and how they are all effected by media and group input, during and immediately after a sharemarket bear market cycle.

In years to come when the next bear is upon us this thread will be very useful.



Don't forget next time 'it will be different'.

[contrarianinvestor]

Don't forget next time 'it will be different'.
You'll be surprised how similar past bear markets were. Winning on Wall Street from Martin Zwieg came in very handy earlier this year.

[Hoop]

Don't forget next time 'it will be different'.

No it won't be different next time....The topic of conversation may be different but the fear/greed behavioural factors with individuals and as a group (animal herd behaviour) never changes. In hindsight after these events our behaviour always looks stupid

Could it be different in the long term future?......

It will be different only when another form of intelligent species enters into the marketplace activity that (out)thinks and acts differently to Humans.

Forget Aliens :p ...... try visualising self thinking (IQ of 1000+) AIs who aren't stupid

Ref: Seed AI (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seed_AI)

[winner69]

That was last Friday .... jeez wayne ... ASX200 might hit 4.500 tomorrow ... this is some bear market rally

Just might .... no way .... it did

Have to set sights on 5000 now

Secular bear markets are good aren't they --- esp the bear market rallies

But keep an eye on those charts .... just in case the ASX200 doesn't get to 5000

[Hoop]

An outside chance it eventually may get to the maximum 6800 before it all turns to custard...and we put our heads between our legs and kiss our a**se good-bye
Hoop "the optimist";)

[STRAT]

Strat.. Seriously...Don't change the name....start a new thread instead.

.Wouldnt know how if I wanted to :o

[STRAT]

Another green day fellas :D

[Hoop]

Wouldnt know how if I wanted to :o

Strat????? You were the person who started this thread.. remember:)

[fungus pudding]

Strat????? You were the person who started this thread.. remember:)

Yeah - but now he can't even remember how to spell start anymore! :D:D

[STRAT]

Strat????? You were the person who started this thread.. remember:)Of course but I have no idea how to change the name. Theres nothing in the thread tools. Anyone care to educate me regarding changing thread names? :o

[STRAT]

Yeah - but now he can't even remember how to spell start anymore! :D:Dlol, Fungus. The only thing worse than my typing skills is my spelling. Where is this supposed spelling error?:eek:

[shasta]

Of course but I have no idea how to change the name. Theres nothing in the thread tools. Anyone care to educate me regarding changing thread names? :o

I send you a PM ;)

[STRAT]

I send you a PM ;)Thanks Shasta. No need to be so descreet though. I dont mind being educated in public :D

[STRAT]

Strat - I think he was poking fun at your username :-)oh yeah, never thought of that.:D

[winner69]

ASX200 weekly close at 4290 means down 3.8% for week but the uptrend that started back in March still looks really strong

US markets were up most days and with the strong finish overnight ended 4% up for the week

This all bodes well for the ASX next week

A lot of the results announcements have been pretty positive so expect an onward and upward rise on the ASX next week .... this bear rally has more in it

Next Fib level is 4522 - only 5% away .... and it wasn't that many days ago that the 4500 was reached intraday

[Dr_Who]

I took the opportunity to pick up some cheap financials and commodity related stocks yesterday when the Aussie was weak. Bank stocks bounced near the end of the closing market. :)

[Footsie]

people keep trying to go short... or sell out thinking its the top.

this is a bull market...dont fight it.... till the trend changes.

[winner69]

To see what happens during secular bear markets (like we are in now) have a look at the chart half way down this article

The Secular Bear Market Example
The swings are much more dramatic than most investors imagine

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2009/08/21/the-statistical-recovery-part-three.aspx

[winner69]

That chart linked was 1994-1982 - the previous secular bear market before the secular bull through to 1999.

Since 1999 the DOW (on monthly closes) has fallen 31% ... then rose 83% ... then fell 50% and from the recent bottom is 50% up ..... and the DOW is still lower than it was at the turn of the century.

History would suggest that 12000 to 13000 is the about the top of the range for the DOW during this 15 year or so secular bear market

This suggests that this bear rally still has some 20% to 30% to run before we see another leg down (thats probably why ananda is bearish)

Interesting things these secular markets

[Dr_Who]

What will happen to Aust when they reach PEAK RESOURCES?

Take a look at the US when they milked all their own oil resources and now a net importer of oil.

[JBmurc]

What will happen to Aust when they reach PEAK RESOURCES?

Take a look at the US when they milked all their own oil resources and now a net importer of oil.

I think Aus is already a net importer of oil As for Peak resources should be a few yrs off AUS is one large unexplored area

[STRAT]

I think Aus is already a net importer of oil As for Peak resources should be a few yrs off AUS is one large unexplored areaNo shortage of unpopulated dirt to dig up over there eh JB? :D

[JBmurc]

No shortage of unpopulated dirt to dig up over there eh JB? :D

- shes one massive country I remember flying to Perth then onto cairns a whole lot of dirt

[winner69]

Great day on the ASX today and that 4500 not far away now

Hope last weeks profit takers are back in

[Phaedrus]

Here is my assessment of the market. Because this chart is completely indicator driven it should be totally objective - certainly that has been my aim. Note that all the indicators that signaled the end of the Bull market have now once again risen into positive territory. On that totally informal basis, I now consider that we are in a Bull market. What's in a name though? You can call it anything you like!

The different colours of the Index plot are mediated by a master indicator which is derived from a combination of other indicators. Each of the constituent indicators is itself a "compilation indicator" formed by using a very wide range of time periods on standard indicators and tabulating the results. This means that there is no backtesting, no optimisation and no search for the "best" time period for each indicator.

How such a chart might be used is up to the individual, but at its simplest, the general idea is that you want to be in the market when it is Green (Strong) and out of the market when it is Red (Weak).

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AllOrds824.gif

[Hoop]

That chart linked was 1994-1982 - the previous secular bear market before the secular bull through to 1999.

Since 1999 the DOW (on monthly closes) has fallen 31% ... then rose 83% ... then fell 50% and from the recent bottom is 50% up ..... and the DOW is still lower than it was at the turn of the century.

History would suggest that 12000 to 13000 is the about the top of the range for the DOW during this 15 year or so secular bear market

This suggests that this bear rally still has some 20% to 30% to run before we see another leg down (thats probably why ananda is bearish)

Interesting things these secular markets

refer to that chart http://www.investorsinsight.com/blog...art-three.aspx (http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2009/08/21/the-statistical-recovery-part-three.aspx)


Secular markets are so predictable...Note that chart of the previous secular Bear 1966 -1982 all the tops are equal...also note V shaped recoveries (nice inverted Head & Shoulder shapes with rapid rise towards the top:) (exemption being 1977-1980 when the rapid rise was cut off due to errant commodity prices {Oil} ).

As Winner suggests 12000 -13000 looks the future top..the faster we get there the quicker we get to the start of the next cyclic bear market...

Presently the DOW is in that rapid rise up. It seems (from history) 11000 -11500 may see a correction or a leveling off (completion of the inverted H&S formation) which will delay the end of this cyclic bull and extend it through into 2010...but Amanda is not the only one who is bearish as this rapid rise continues, so am I...

Look at the textbook inverted H&S of 1972-1975 its absolutely perfect in every way ..I think we could get this near perfect formation type again this time.. its started very similar with a false bottom (as did Oct 2008) and rose to the next peak in 1975 from the shoulder without a correction. Note how the end of 1971 peak broke the equal top rule ..(similar to end 2007) and resulted in a lower bottom in end of 1973 (as did in March 2009). If this perfect formation is repeated 11700 could be the peak and then many months of struggling to top that peak on a leveling out scenario.

In the long term the Secular bear still rules...It may seem paradoxical but cyclic bulls prolong the life of a secular bear...only a cyclic bear can kill a secular bear so we will have a long wait.

Note: The S&P 500 and the DOW secular bull cycle ended in year 2000 Cannot find any data but I suspect the ASX and NZX were in secular bull cycles up until the end of 2007. So we should not expect the ASX to better 6800 and the NZX to better 4300 for a number of years.

[winner69]

After the initial fall at the opening that was quite soem recovery on the US markets last night

I see the ASX200 getting to that 4500 today ... and staying there ... which will make Phaedrus's chart look even greener

Reporting season been pretty good in spite of billions of dollars of losses being reportrd ... when punters focus on 'normalised operating earnings' and think green shoots there is only one way for the market to go ... UP UP and UP.

If this yurns out to be false dawn it won't be known for a few months ... so in the meantime enjoy the positive sentiment ... and keep a close eye on those charts for any weakness

[Footsie]

True winner... ride the wave

[Phaedrus]

New improved model! Now with seven exciting colours, giving even more insight into subtle market movements! Why try and guess the state of the market? One glance tells all! Forget outmoded arbitrary distinctions. Bull market? Bear market? Who knows! Who cares!!!

Aim to be in the market when it is green and out when it is red. How you utilise and interpret the intermediate colours will depend on how actively or aggressively you want to trade.

Why waste time and effort futilely striving to predict what the market might do in the future? An accurate and objective assessment of the current market state is more useful than any forecast. Sooner or later, experience teaches you that forecasting is not necessary in order to react logically to changing market conditions. All you have to do is act apppropriately today.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AllOrds828.gif

[evilroyrule]

nice chart! except i entered the asx with a number of junior stocks midway through your "green patch
'. they have done nothing except go sideways or stay still, while others have grown shoots. clearly my stock selection may not be the best, strategy wise do i stay in and hope to catch the wave or exit now with little loss and aim again? my nzx has done considerable better largely thanks to NPX!

[COLIN]

I'm not into "Double Candlesticks", or "Head and Shoulders", etc (don't get me wrong, I don't equate these techniques to "Reading the Teacups" or "Studying the Entrails of a Goat") but just observing the Dow over recent days, and picking up on what someone else on some thread posited, it seems to me that we could in fact be seeing the shoulder of the "Inverted Head and Shoulders" playing out? Question is: how long will it be until we start going down the side of the arm (inverted)?

[AMR]

I'm not into "Double Candlesticks", or "Head and Shoulders", etc (don't get me wrong, I don't equate these techniques to "Reading the Teacups" or "Studying the Entrails of a Goat") but just observing the Dow over recent days, and picking up on what someone else on some thread posited, it seems to me that we could in fact be seeing the shoulder of the "Inverted Head and Shoulders" playing out? Question is: how long will it be until we start going down the side of the arm (inverted)?

IMO the right shoulder has already been formed and confirmed...

[STRAT]

I'm not into "Double Candlesticks", or "Head and Shoulders", etc (don't get me wrong, I don't equate these techniques to "Reading the Teacups" or "Studying the Entrails of a Goat") but just observing the Dow over recent days, and picking up on what someone else on some thread posited, it seems to me that we could in fact be seeing the shoulder of the "Inverted Head and Shoulders" playing out? Question is: how long will it be until we start going down the side of the arm (inverted)?If thats the Industrial average, Cant see it my self but wouldnt it be nice? :D

[STRAT]

IMO the right shoulder has already been formed and confirmed...Hi AMR.
What time frame? Can you post it?

[AMR]

A weekly scale...the blue line is the neckline, you can see the right shoulder completed on the 16th July and overhead resistance at 9350 was cracked recently. I try not to use these patterns anymore, too subjective.

[STRAT]

A weekly scale...the blue line is the neckline, you can see the right shoulder completed on the 16th July and overhead resistance at 9350 was cracked recently. I try not to use these patterns anymore, too subjective.Oh yeah there it is :D
Thanks.

Time frame is everything :p

[winner69]

From The Economist --- S&P at over 20 times operating earnings .... record profits unlikely again for many years .... and Buttonwood mentions the old mid 60's to 80's period when the markets went nowhere

Secular marlets are interesting .... we are in a secular bear market .... nut plenty of money can be made during the bear rallies that occur ... just follow the big trends - and Phaedrus's charts



A fair share

Aug 27th 2009
From The Economist print edition


Has the tide turned for corporate profits?



THE equity bull market had many foundations, including low interest rates and steady global growth. But the strength of corporate profits was a vital component; in 2006 American profits achieved their highest share of GDP since the second world war.

The recent rally in shares has been driven by the low yields available on alternative asset classes like cash and government bonds and by hopes of economic recovery. But if those recovery hopes do not translate into a rebound in profits, it is hard to see how the rally can last.

The American second-quarter results season was undoubtedly better than expected. But it is worth remembering that such positive surprises are quite common, with companies massaging down expectations in the run-up to their figures. David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff, a Canadian asset-management firm, says profits were actually down 27.8% year-on-year; analysts are still expecting a 20.6% annual fall in the third quarter having thought there would be a 2.6% rise as recently as the start of the year.

With profits still falling, the rally has thus been driven by a re-rating of the market. Assuming operating earnings hit $50 a share in the third quarter, the S&P 500 index is trading on a price-earnings ratio of 20, the kind of multiple normally associated with boom conditions. Clearly, investors are expecting a robust profits recovery in the years ahead.

But companies are digging themselves out of a deep pit. In terms of operating earnings, the best calendar year for the S&P 500 was 2006, when profits reached $88 a share. According to Citigroup, which has just raised its forecasts, earnings will not regain that level until 2013. The current era rather resembles the biblical dream of seven lean years.

Tim Lee of pi Economics reckons that American profits may be depressed for some time, because the country is headed for a prolonged period of slow growth. This argument depends on a number of assumptions. Is America headed for slow growth and, if so, why? One reason could be a demographic shift, with baby boomers dropping out of the workforce; if labour becomes more scarce, real wages will rise, at the expense of profit margins.

However, other nations are in a worse demographic position. In addition, the conventional explanation for the high share of profits in 2006 was the downward pressure on wages arising from the growing Chinese manufacturing labour force, a factor that is unlikely to disappear soon.

Mr Lee argues instead that America’s slow growth will be the consequence of its terrible savings rate—on the grounds that America cannot borrow from abroad to fund its investment for ever, and investment drives the growth rate. The link sounds plausible: take China’s regular 9-10% annual growth and its high savings rate. But the relationship is far from automatic. Japan had a high savings rate for years but has suffered dismal growth over the past two decades.

In the short term, a simpler explanation may be that a low savings rate has left American consumers with a heavy debt burden. As consumers try to pay down those debts, the result will be sluggish demand and thus slower growth.

Would that necessarily mean a smaller share for profits within GDP? Mr Lee says slower growth implies a lower return on assets and thus subdued profits. Indeed, a casual look at the ratio of corporate profits to net assets since the early 1950s shows two peaks: in the mid-1960s and late-1990s, both periods of robust growth. The lows for the ratio came in the stagflationary 1970s.

An obvious explanation for the relationship is operational gearing; companies need a certain level of sales to cover their fixed costs and once that level is reached, margins rise substantially. In a slow-growing economy, that critical level will be reached by fewer firms (although eventually companies will cut their costs to suit the new conditions).

Financial gearing may be another reason. During the boom, companies had access to cheap credit, which increased the number of profitable projects they could fund. The crunch has made banks less able to lend and companies less willing to borrow, at least for a few years.

The details of Mr Lee’s arguments are certainly open to challenge. But he may still have got the direction of change right. After the last profit-share peak in the mid-1960s, the corporate sector suffered a long and dismal decline. A world marked by greater regulation and higher taxes is unlikely to be good for profits.



Economist.com/blogs/buttonwood






Copyright © 2009 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.

http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=14327665

[winner69]

A weekly scale...the blue line is the neckline, you can see the right shoulder completed on the 16th July and overhead resistance at 9350 was cracked recently. I try not to use these patterns anymore, too subjective.

Beautiful chart AMR .... but all all i can see is the formation of the outline of Nicole Kidmans latest dress

The right shoulder seen late last year .... the cleavage showing March 09 .... and the left shoulder due to appear late this year somewhere near 1400 .... before a slight decline that matches the right sleeve

Nothing to worry about here for a while yet

[STRAT]

Beautiful chart AMR .... but all all i can see is the formation of the outline of Nicole Kidmans latest dress

The right shoulder seen late last year .... the cleavage showing March 09 .... and the left shoulder due to appear late this year somewhere near 1400 .... before a slight decline that matches the right sleeve

Nothing to worry about here for a while yet And here I was thinking it was a hooded member of the Ku Klux Klan standing on his head

[Hoop]

STRAT (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?u=6871)
SRV is a God
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Quote:
Originally Posted by winner69 http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=271219#post271219)
Beautiful chart AMR .... but all all i can see is the formation of the outline of Nicole Kidmans latest dress

The right shoulder seen late last year .... the cleavage showing March 09 .... and the left shoulder due to appear late this year somewhere near 1400 .... before a slight decline that matches the right sleeve

Nothing to worry about here for a while yet

And here I was thinking it was a hooded member of the Ku Klux Klan standing on his head

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nah guys...it is Eccky "the acid man" see post #514 (16th July 2009) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6769&page=35)

You guys can see him here with only one shoulder from the reposting of my 13th May 2009 chart (#508) and Ratkin (#509) thoughts (am I on acid?) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6769&page=34)
And legoman had a go too (#511) named it an eccky...and Ratkin again on #512 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6769&page=35) My thanks to Footsie (#510) who supported me.

Spooky :eek: thing about my updated DOW chart on post #514 I drew the possible future in red and I stopped at end of August at 9200 with blood dripping (ratkin #515) to 9800.....DOW closed 9544 (28th Aug)

Hmmm...what do you think about that now Ratkin, Legoman :D.

......are you 2 guys superstitious:rolleyes:

[STRAT]

Yup good call Hoop and others.
but I still reckon,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, KKK

[Hoop]

Strat....great post :D:D:D You made my day LOL

[COLIN]

Strat: Priceless. And who says that chartists don't have a sense of humour!
Many thanks, fellows, for your "interpretations" - now I just have to work out how I can put this knowledge to good use - should be easy!

Cheers.

[winner69]

With a pretty positive announcement from ANZ the banking sector should take the ASX200 over 4500 today .... then onwards and upwards to 5000 in the next few months

[winner69]

ASX at 11 month high with ASX200 well over 4500 .... still a lot of good news floating around and the people who really matter (those fundies with a lot of spare cash still) still seem pretty positive

Jeez even Gerry Harvey was in raptures the other day so things must have turned .... he might even have to start giving out weekly sales updates to show how much sales are growing ... was pretty keen with his weekly updates when things were going downhill


Phaedrus;s Index will still be the dark green colour ..... upwards from here methinks as Belg would say

[soulman]

I tend to disagree. Market looking toppy. Banks are flying ahead of fundamentals. MQG in the $50's, going up in anticipation of future profits. A lot of cap raising and M & A means good dough for the MacBank. The Big Four looks expensive.

G Harvey looks happy because he's got a lot of shares in most coy in the ASX100 and would be happy with the current rise, not to mention HVN shares doing well.

A drop to 4200 would be ideal. A rise to 4700 would not suprise me either. The Big Four dropping to 4% yield would push the index near 5000.

[JBmurc]

I tend to disagree. Market looking toppy. Banks are flying ahead of fundamentals. MQG in the $50's, going up in anticipation of future profits. A lot of cap raising and M & A means good dough for the MacBank. The Big Four looks expensive.

G Harvey looks happy because he's got a lot of shares in most coy in the ASX100 and would be happy with the current rise, not to mention HVN shares doing well.

A drop to 4200 would be ideal. A rise to 4700 would not suprise me either. The Big Four dropping to 4% yield would push the index near 5000.

I have to agree in a gut feeling kind of way the fact is the mass money printers of world central banks has been a major driver of the recovery with low rates .
Now what this will bring when rates do rise to combat Inflation should be positive for Commodities an the Aussie economy as real assets increase in value ..

I do believe the DOW will fall harder in one day this month than it has over the last couple..

[Hoop]

Apparently (source:- Closing Bell - Wall Street - this morning NZ time) there is a large amount of money still sitting on the sidelines in the US and the fund managers are coming back from their Summer holidays. Some Fundies strategies was to sell in "May and go away" anticipating the Summer Bear wave down. On average this strategy works and these guys are seen as financial heroes but apparently this typical August equity drop never happened this year...dammm:p:rolleyes:.

The sideline money is idle and not earning anybody anything of significance....and most of these guys are back from holiday after the first week of September. So now they are starting to ask themselves these very nervous questions.."How do we get back in? " :confused::confused: "Do we want to be back in? ":confused::confused:

It's obvious that these guys trying to talk this US market down is not succeeding yet..so do we see another rally starting next week?

[JBmurc]

Apparently (source:- Closing Bell - Wall Street - this morning NZ time) there is a large amount of money still sitting on the sidelines in the US and the fund managers are coming back from their Summer holidays. Some Fundies strategies was to sell in "May and go away" anticipating the Summer Bear wave down. On average this strategy works and these guys are seen as financial heroes but apparently this typical August equity drop never happened this year...dammm:p:rolleyes:.

The sideline money is idle and not earning anybody anything of significance....and most of these guys are back from holiday after the first week of September. So now they are starting to ask themselves these very nervous questions.."How do we get back in? " :confused::confused: "Do we want to be back in? ":confused::confused:

It's obvious that these guys trying to talk this US market down is not succeeding yet..so do we see another rally starting next week?


-hope so remember hearing the same thing on CNBC how many International fundies that still hadn't invested their clients funds outside low short term deposits while markets had rebounded up 30%+ makes you wonder how much extra cash is now looking for a home with the central banks adding trillions to their money supplys to keep their bankers afloat an give out cheap loans to their mates at super low rates ..

[evilroyrule]

JBM, sorry not related to this thread but have a friend in Qtown trying to buy asset from receivers of failed finance company. looking for 5m against current valuation of 12m. Youre down that way, do you know of anyone lending? Main st banks seem to have shut up shop. Just a long shot! Thanks

[JBmurc]

JBM, sorry not related to this thread but have a friend in Qtown trying to buy asset from receivers of failed finance company. looking for 5m against current valuation of 12m. Youre down that way, do you know of anyone lending? Main st banks seem to have shut up shop. Just a long shot! Thanks

no sorry don't know of any banks or finance companies taking on larger local loans I have noticed in the last year at least half of the local high flyer's are now bankrupt no doubt some of the other half are close too..so don't really think local banking to fond of leading unless you've got penalty capital

[JBmurc]

Well looks like the US markets are going to have their worst week in over 2months DOW down near 200 futures point to another 150+ drop mostly banking related

ASX will no doult get hit today esp. the banks
GOLD & SILVER up OIL & GAS down

[Dr_Who]

Copper is holding up strong.

[STRAT]

Hi Winner69
What happened to your post from this morning. I was going to ask a question but its gone. The post and the question :D

[winner69]

Hi Winner69
What happened to your post from this morning. I was going to ask a question but its gone. The post and the question :D

The one of the DOW thread? still there

[STRAT]

The one of the DOW thread? still thereOh yeah :o My bad.

Thanks Winner.

and now I remember the question too lol

What is VIX?

[winner69]

VIX is a volatility index that measures the implied volatility of the options prices of S&P 500 stocks - seen as the market's expectation of near term volatility of the market generally - also known as the fear indicator

Generally when the VIX spikes it is seen as more and more punters becoming fearful and selling - leading to price falls

But volatility mathematically means plus as well as minus ... therefore, maybe tounge in cheek but with an optimistic outlook, this spike in the VIX can signal a rise in the S&P as well as fall

Last time there was such headlines the S&P500 continued to rise ....

[STRAT]

VIX is a volatility index that measures the implied volatility of the options prices of S&P 500 stocks - seen as the market's expectation of near term volatility of the market generally - also known as the fear indicator

Generally when the VIX spikes it is seen as more and more punters becoming fearful and selling - leading to price falls

But volatility mathematically means plus as well as minus ... therefore, maybe tounge in cheek but with an optimistic outlook, this spike in the VIX can signal a rise in the S&P as well as fall

Last time there was such headlines the S&P500 continued to rise ....Thanks Winner. Actually I have heard of it. Do you have a link to more?

[Hoop]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Vix01092009.png

[STRAT]

Thanks Hoop.
So the trend line break means an increase in Volatility which can mean a possible strong market reaction in either direction?

[Phaedrus]

The increase in the VIX means that volatility is expected to increase. That's why the VIX is looked upon as a "Fear" index.

[STRAT]

The increase in the VIX means that volatility is expected to increase. That's why the VIX is looked upon as a "Fear" index.Thanks Phardrus

[Dr_Who]

A few stocks are starting to look cheap.

hmmmm.... what to buy. Decisions, decisions....:rolleyes:

[winner69]

Not that much damage today ... been a few days like this over the last month or 2

Phaedrus's chart will still show green

And gee whiz .... JBH at 1823 was a record close ... ever .... not too bad

[evilroyrule]

appreciate you taking the time to reply. worth a shot. giddy up CFE!

[winner69]

Likely up day today for the ASX will make this a pretty reasonable week on the ASX considering the 'turmoil' around the world earlier in the week

Should end the week not far from 11 months high .... up trend will remain in place ... and Phaedrus's chart will still be showing green

[Phaedrus]

Note that the MSI is currently "saturated" at 1.0 - it can't go any higher than this.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AllOrds94.gif

[winner69]

Chart should look even better next week

US closed higher Friday do that bodes well

We all know the markets are grossly overvalued .... jeez even the aussie banks are overvalued ... and the market (fundamentally) is due for another crash

But if sentiment is positive stay on board the train ... if the crap is too happen wont be intil the ASZ200 goes over 5000

[Dr_Who]

Keep an eye on those Central Bank rates.

As long as the global central banks hold rates at these extremely low levels, the global equities market will continue to stay up.

People will look at the bank account and ask themselves what is my return? When you get F all interest income from your bank, you will look around for alternative investments.

[Footsie]

Mr P

That chart is constantly improving.
Well DOne.

Liquidity is awash at present. While rates are low and on hold make hay.

I'm guessing 2010 will be a difficult year for investors.... probably a sideways choppy muck.
there wont be the recovery rally and rates will be rising.

[winner69]

Few pretty pictures in this short report from AMP

http://www.ampcapital.co.nz/_documents/news-and-views/insights/2009.09.01_From.bear.to.bull.pdf?DIRECT


Says that on the NZX after a bear market the average bull market rise is 147% with a duration of 4 years .... the ASX performance similar i would say .....so plenty of upside yet

[Hoop]

Few pretty pictures in this short report from AMP

http://www.ampcapital.co.nz/_documents/news-and-views/insights/2009.09.01_From.bear.to.bull.pdf?DIRECT


Says that on the NZX after a bear market the average bull market rise is 147% with a duration of 4 years .... the ASX performance similar i would say .....so plenty of upside yet

The report basically saying what you and me and few others have been saying over the last few months on ST.

I think though his arrow as to the current position is too far to the left of the economic recovery area in his economic/investment cycle. I feel the economic cycle is in the beginnings of the recovery mode already.

I hope Shane Oliver and Jason Wong are right as I have accumulated quiet a few of these AMP shares over the last few months.:)

[winner69]

ASX200 closes at 4523 .... highest close since last October

And with all the positive news still going around the 5000 by Xmas

Mind you it fell from 5000 to 4500 in a few days last October .... maybe, just maybe, it might go from 4500 to 5000 in a few days as well

[winner69]

ASX200 4570 ...... approaching 4600 .... wonder if the profit takers of a week or so are back in?

Phaedrus's indicator needs another colour .... +1.1 = supercharged on steroids ... or something

Still a way to go with this bear market rally

[winner69]

Looks like another strong finish to the week for the ASX ... good stuff

ASX200 at 4600 is about 50% up form the March lows. Next logical target is 5000 which is the level that reflects regaining only 50% of the fall from the highs of 2008 (50% Fib level). Nothing really unusual in the behaviour of the ASX200 and 5000 looks a certainity in the next month or so.

Good news keeps coming out - the bad news is not unexpected - market sentiment still really positive ... so why not stay in ... but watch those charts

[moimoi]

winner...you might want to bear the index reshuffle below in mind ;-)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26037435-23634,00.html

[lissica]

winner...you might want to bear the index reshuffle below in mind ;-)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26037435-23634,00.html

Wow, you're not wrong there!

Any idea how many days it takes for the index to be reshuffled?

[winner69]

Ben says the recession over in the US .... plenty of good news in aussie .... and the ASX is on fire again .... not that it really showed any real signs of weakness

Onwards and upwarrds ... all the signs are there

[winner69]

Looks like we will have another good day on the ASX ..... another burst towards that 5000 mark for the ASX200

Commodity prices up, banks in favour and general positive sentiment in all sectors all make this to be a market to be in

But watch those charts .... the ASX200 could be back at 3200 again this time next year ... thats the nature of secular bear markets ..... but make the most of bear market rallys

[winner69]

Smashed through the 4700 mark

Jeez those pensions funds moving cash back into equities are doing a great job ... even if they are a bit slow of the mark ... must be expecting the ASX200 to get back to 7000 next year

Goos stuff - keep piling more in

[ratkin]

Lol we have a very different Winner from this time last year.

Can this be the same morose soul who turned up on a companies thread when it was about to go belly up ?

As for the rat , it been business as usual , all that averaging down late last year / beginning of this year has paid a handsome reward for bravery / foolishness.

For the first time in three years though im now struggling to find anything i want to buy so my cash been building up last month or two

[winner69]

ASX200 friday close at 4713 highest weekly close since the march bottoms - yes the ASX went up last week

The strong uptrend is still in place --- the dark green on Phaedrus Sentiment Index

Nice round numbers and resistance / support levels seem to go hand in hand - and 5000 is the next logical pojnt - a nice round number and importantly the 50% Fib level from past highs to recent lows.

And these guys say plenty more upside - so another few good months to come

Market on fire: follow that bull!

http://www.theage.com.au/business/market-on-fire-follow-that-bull-20090926-g73a.html

Love this bit 'There has been a beautiful symmetry occurring on the sharemarket in the past year' ..... beautiful

This'll help the cause - "The percentage of cash in super funds is 18 per cent at the moment, against a long-term average of close to 8 per cent"

The Commsec guy a bit of a pessimist - "." He expects the ASX200 to be at 4800 by the year's end and 5100 by mid-next year."

[Footsie]

Phaedrus

Can you do an update over the weekend........... so AFTER TODAY"S fall.


Cheers

[Phaedrus]

Here you are Footsie. The chart includes today's fall.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/DOW102.gif

(Ripway seems to be down at the moment, so this is on Photobucket. My impression is that the image quality is reduced.)

[Shaneoz]

Here you are Footsie. The chart includes today's fall.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/DOW102.gif

(Ripway seems to be down at the moment, so this is on Photobucket. My impression is that the image quality is reduced.)

Hi Phaedrus,

Nice indicator... I like the way it proves a market is in bull mode before giving a buy signal. How does it go around major tops? Is it quick enough in its reaction to signal before a sizeable fall?

Have you made available your indicator or is it something you are still working on/commerciallising it? I did do a quick search but didnt see much of an explanation of how you have designed this.

On another note, this forum is a breath of fresh air in relation to the markets. Seems like everyone is out to help each other out which is something you tend to not see on most other forums. Mostly misdirection on a lot of the aussie forums. Thats what made me decide to join.

Shane.

[Phaedrus]

Whoops! You wanted the AllOrds didn't you, Footsie!
I may as well leave the DOW chart here for general interest.
Updated AllOrds chart (with today's drop!) posted tonight.

[STRAT]

Whoops! You wanted the AllOrds didn't you, Footsie!
I may as well leave the DOW chart here for general interest.
Updated AllOrds chart (with today's drop!) posted tonight.Both would be great Phaedrus and very much appreciated.

Did I see a hint of a prediction in that last post :eek:

and Tricha not here to appreciate it :D

[Phaedrus]

Nice indicator... How does it go around major tops? Is it quick enough in its reaction to signal before a sizeable fall?I think it does very well indeed! Take a look at this AllOrds chart and see if you agree. Unusual weakness was detected in December 2007 - well before the crash got underway. If you know of a better, faster system than this I would be very interested to see it. The performance at major bottoms is pretty good too. See how it was giving the green light "re-enter the market" signal way back in March? Many people were advising caution at that point - and indeed, some still are!!!! Meanwhile, the market has gone up 50%.


Have you made available your indicator or is it something you are still working on/commercialising? It is still a "work in progress" and I would not have thought of commercialising it except to my surprise I have had a tentative approach from a web-based charting service expressing some interest. Because of this I will not be posting the actual formula here. In any case it involves many hundreds of lines of MetaStock code and is quite complex and difficult to set up.

The strength of this indicator is not so much in the speed of its signals but in its objectivity. Every so often, some ignorant twit pops up here and criticises my charts as being nothing but "curve-fitting", utilising hindsight to find optimum indicator parameters. Presumably they believe that standard indicator "default" values are somehow sacrosanct and should never, ever be varied, regardless of circumstance! Anyhow, this indicator uses "all" parameter values for a number of standard indicators, determines the overall rating of each indicator and then combines all indicator ratings to give a "consensus" score. A completely arbitrary colour rating system based on the final "score" is then superimposed on the Index line plot.

This chart includes the current AllOrds Index as at 2pm NZ. (4614) I wouldn't expect the Close to be a lot different, but if it should plummet and move us "out of the green", I will post an updated chart this evening.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AllOrds102am.gif

[Lego_Man]

Moral of the story is: be the (other) guy in the bar

[Shaneoz]

I think it does very well indeed! Take a look at this AllOrds chart and see if you agree. Unusual weakness was detected in December 2007 - well before the crash got underway. If you know of a better, faster system than this I would be very interested to see it. The performance at major bottoms is pretty good too. See how it was giving the green light "re-enter the market" signal way back in March? Many people were advising caution at that point - and indeed, some still are!!!! Meanwhile, the market has gone up 50%.

It is still a "work in progress" and I would not have thought of commercialising it except to my surprise I have had a tentative approach from a web-based charting service expressing some interest. Because of this I will not be posting the actual formula here. In any case it involves many hundreds of lines of MetaStock code and is quite complex and difficult to set up.

The strength of this indicator is not so much in the speed of its signals but in its objectivity. Every so often, some ignorant twit pops up here and criticises my charts as being nothing but "curve-fitting", utilising hindsight to find optimum indicator parameters. Presumably they believe that standard indicator "default" values are somehow sacrosanct and should never, ever be varied, regardless of circumstance! Anyhow, this indicator uses "all" parameter values for a number of standard indicators, determines the overall rating of each indicator and then combines all indicator ratings to give a "consensus" score. A completely arbitrary colour rating system based on the final "score" is then superimposed on the Index line plot.

This chart includes the current AllOrds Index as at 2pm NZ. (4614) I wouldn't expect the Close to be a lot different, but if it should plummet and move us "out of the green", I will post an updated chart this evening.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AllOrds102am.gif

Well I hope you do well out of the indicator if you commercialise it. Good to see hard work pay off.

I will watch for updates down the track.

Shane.

[Footsie]

KW what was that stock

Thanks Phaedrus

There were a couple of stocks that I follow which got smashed on the open today down over 10%. You had to be quick, but they became a nice day trade.

I cant believe how some poeple panic on the open like that..... silly. especially given we are still technically in an uptrend.

[COLIN]

Hi Phaedrus,



On another note, this forum is a breath of fresh air in relation to the markets. Seems like everyone is out to help each other out which is something you tend to not see on most other forums. Mostly misdirection on a lot of the aussie forums. Thats what made me decide to join.

Shane.

Encouraging to hear you say that, Shane, and welcome aboard.
My own contributions are not earth-shaking, and certainly not in the league of the likes of Phaedrus, but I do try and be informative, non-manipulative, and maintain integrity.

The way I see the market over the last few weeks is a bit like the story of Robert the Bruce and the spider in the cave - "3 inches up, 2 back, 3 up, 2 back, 3 up .......until he reached the top."

[digger]

Encouraging to hear you say that, Shane, and welcome aboard.
My own contributions are not earth-shaking, and certainly not in the league of the likes of Phaedrus, but I do try and be informative, non-manipulative, and maintain integrity.

The way I see the market over the last few weeks is a bit like the story of Robert the Bruce and the spider in the cave - "3 inches up, 2 back, 3 up, 2 back, 3 up .......until he reached the top."


Well said COLIN. I too like to try to maintain integrity,although everyone has his price so do not leave a milion in cash on the table and trust me that it will still be there when the lights come back on.On the smaller figures it is death before dishonour.
By the way the spider does not get to the top as in your scenario. He ran out of web forgetting that we all live on a finite planet. Probably too many spiders or global warming stuffing up the spinerret.
On a serious note i do not believe the market will ever truely come back to business as usual.The west that was the past economic power house have toooooo much debt and the stimulus will only last so long before we are back again trying to once again hide from the problems we refuse to face.That is why your spider for now goes 3 steps forward and two back and it hides the truth that he will soon ran out of all the things required to carry on.

[The Big Ease]

I Anyhow, this indicator uses "all" parameter values for a number of standard indicators, determines the overall rating of each indicator and then combines all indicator ratings to give a "consensus" score. A completely arbitrary colour rating system based on the final "score" is then superimposed on the Index line plot.





Is this like a balanced scorecard set-up?
What is a parameter indicator?

[Phaedrus]

With a "Balanced scorecard" set-up, assessment is totally subjective. My aim was to create an objective measure of overall market strength by correlating the results of a number of different technical indicators, each of which is totally objective. The Index either is or is not above the 100 day moving average, for example.

Indicator parameters are the variable factors utilised in indicator formulae. These almost always include the "look-back" time period used for the calculation, but can also cover smoothing values, trigger levels, etc.

One of the indicators used in my Market Strength Index is the Stochastic oscillator. To monitor the long Bull market, the "best" time period for this indicator was 220 days. To monitor the ensuing Bear market, a 64 day Stochastic Oscillator performed best. The current Bull market (there, I said it!) has been best monitored with a 78 day Stochastic oscillator.

MSI signals are no faster and no better than those provided by using these 3 separate periods, but, being adaptive, it accommodates very different markets without any variation. There are no variable parameters. Stochastic oscillator signals are tabulated using time periods ranging from 3 days to 300 days, for example.

[airedale]

Hi Phaedrus, your indicator is an important and informative piece of research. Perhaps it should have a thread of its own on ST.

[Footsie]

agree
its gold

thank P

[Financially dependant]

agree
its gold

thank P

I agree too.....It needs it's own thread!

[STRAT]

Nice little bounce last night respecting the March to Oct trendline ( DJIA ).
Still looks toppy to me.
Hi Hoop and Dumbass.
What are your thoughts fellas?

[The Big Ease]

With a "Balanced scorecard" set-up, assessment is totally subjective. My aim was to create an objective measure of overall market strength by correlating the results of a number of different technical indicators, each of which is totally objective. The Index either is or is not above the 100 day moving average, for example.

Indicator parameters are the variable factors utilised in indicator formulae. These almost always include the "look-back" time period used for the calculation, but can also cover smoothing values, trigger levels, etc.

One of the indicators used in my Market Strength Index is the Stochastic oscillator. To monitor the long Bull market, the "best" time period for this indicator was 220 days. To monitor the ensuing Bear market, a 64 day Stochastic Oscillator performed best. The current Bull market (there, I said it!) has been best monitored with a 78 day Stochastic oscillator.

MSI signals are no faster and no better than those provided by using these 3 separate periods, but, being adaptive, it accommodates very different markets without any variation. There are no variable parameters. Stochastic oscillator signals are tabulated using time periods ranging from 3 days to 300 days, for example.

isn't the choice to use a 100 day MA or 120 day MA also subjective?

[Phaedrus]

Isn't the choice to use a 100 day MA or 120 day MA also subjective?Yes it is. It is also capricious and arbitrary. That's why the Market Strength Indicator uses "all" MA periods. I don't get to select my favourite period MA or one that has performed well historically. The MSI oscillator utilises the consensus of "all" MA periods.

[Hoop]

Hi Strat.

A quick answer what I think.....This is a phase 2 cyclic bull market correction in progress.


I was going to do some work to post on the the Goldilocks and the 3 Bears thread but only managed to do this one chart...and never got to posted it.

Note the chart below is dated... (17th Sept 2009). A couple of people on ST may recognise it as I posted it to them 3 weeks ago via PM.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OK..the chart below is 3 weeks old now, it's rather messy to understand but it is still proving itself useful enough to post here now.

The basis of these simple :) chart predictions is Cyclic behaviour as they always repeat, because it is the nature of cycles to repeat. Therefore we can look back in history and compare the previous Cyclic Bull Market behaviours on the All Ords ...analyse and offer an approximate prediction for the present one. The Chart below is kept to a simple basic operation (going back measuring only one BM cycle) using basic principles with approximate points to form the last predicted correction point due figure of 4660 ...(Update...Actual point looks to be 4750).

Note that the previous (early 2003 to Nov 2007) Cyclic Bull oscillation between corrections were approximately 1600 gaps... this present Cyclic Bull seems to have an oscillation of about 900 /1000. (so far)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We are presently in cyclic Bull Market. There are 3 phases of a Bull Market we are currently in phase 2 ..Historians have dubbed the BM (phase 2) as where the index climbs the "wall of worry". We have already witnessed one Bull market correction recently (15 June -14 July 2009)..it seems we are witnessing the second now.

How long and how severe could this bull market correction be?

Its any ones guess and there are many methods to predict...However using the method in my post............ Keeping in mind that all indexes have different frequencies.... It seems in the All Ords scenario projected from past behaviour, tells us that bull market corrections average about a 10% drop and can last between 1 to 2 months, before resuming the uptrend again. (see the pink circles)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/AllOrds17092009.png

[STRAT]

Thanks Hoop.
Very much appreciated

[drillfix]

Just thought I would share this, which is a view from Dale Gillham, from wealthwithin.


All Ords Report 06 October 2009

The Productivity Commission’s draft report on executive pay and the potential influence that minority shareholders will have raises some interesting questions. The main one is whether so few shareholders should be able to effectively sack the board of a company. I am all for more accountability from companies and their boards as I believe many executives are paid too much especially when you consider that quite a few have received significant pay rises in the past few years whilst shareholder value has decreased.

It is well known that voting on issues at Annual General Meetings (AGM) are generally considered a forgone conclusion, given that deals are often struck before an AGM with the majority shareholders who are usually the institutions. This makes AGM’s merely a token gesture to at least look like the board is interested in what ordinary shareholders want. It’s no wonder that average Australian shareholders are calling for more transparency and accountability. The challenge for the commission now is how to balance the needs of the minority along with the need for boards to act effectively.

So what can we expect in the market?

I have indicated in previous reports that I believe there is a false sense of security emerging from the general investing public as many investors have been rushing into the market thinking they are missing out on the current bull-run. This is in contrast to the professionals who have been more cautious, which was reinforced last week with the results of a survey conducted by Sky Business Channel that I took part in.

Of the 26 experts, 20 expect the market to suffer a pullback in either October or November with the fall likely to be at least 7 per cent although some claimed it could be as much as 15 per cent. With this knowledge, it is important to plan for what may unfold because all too often investors react with fear rather than a cool head. If we plan for the market to fall and have a strategy to manage that, we are in a stronger position because if the market does continue to rise we know we will make more profit but if it does fall away we can exit early to protect capital.

Until last Friday the market continued to defy logic over the preceding two weeks by refusing to fall away in price, instead it really only traded sideways as the bulls were unable to push the market higher. Since 17 September the All Ordinaries Index closed lower on 7 of the 11 trading days, and also made a lower low and a higher high, all of which are signs of bearish indecision.

The Dow then fell 2 per cent last Thursday causing the Australian market to fall away heavily on Friday to below the low of 4646.30 that occurred on 25 September. Given this, it is possible that the market is finally moving into the short term low I have been expecting. If I am correct we could see a short sharp move down of one or possibly two weeks, with the market likely to fall by at least 5 to 10 per cent with a price target for the fall of between 4300 and 4500 points.

I expect it will more likely be the latter, and given last week was the first week down the market could continue to fall away this week to our target level. If the market doesn’t fall, it is highly likely it will rise for another one to four weeks to between 5000 and 5200 points, before falling heavily into November or possibly December. In any case I believe it would unwise to expect the market to continue its strong bullish run into next year.

Until next time
Good luck and profitable trading

Dale Gillham
Chief Analyst

source: http://www.wealthwithin.com.au/scripts/all-ords-report.php?id=25

[Phaedrus]

"If the market doesn’t fall, it is highly likely it will rise..." (Dale Gillham).

This guy is good! I'm picking that he will be right on this one.

[trackers]

"If the market doesn’t fall, it is highly likely it will rise..." (Dale Gillham).

This guy is good! I'm picking that he will be right on this one.

Haha that whole paragraph is a gem...


Dow up 1.37% overnight and POO (WTI) up strongly to $71.50 (up $1.25)

[Hoop]

Haha that whole paragraph is a gem...


Dow up 1.37% overnight and POO (WTI) up strongly to $71.50 (up $1.25)


Whoa.. there Trackers.:) Dont get too optimistic. This is the time for caution.

Market predictors always at some stage get kicked in the rear end.

I love to be proved wrong with my prediction method as I am 80 % in stocks...but..these latest two day huge gains have not changed anything in relation to the All Ords...

The DOW is.. as of this morning (down under time) still in a short-term downtrend. (I expect this could break ...if not.. the market correction is earlier than predicted)

If the DOW has another rise tomorrow that downtrend line will be breached... but the DOW needs to rise up to above the 9830 to continue the uptrend and take away the "media built" market correction threat.

Note on my chart below that my predicted correction due point is 10350...so the Dow may have a little time yet to continue its rise up.

As I pointed out in the Goldilocks and the 3 bears thread.. the indexes during 2009 have broken sync from the perfect storm scenario of 2008 Bear and some indexes are now more mature than others. The ASX and NZX market cycles are more advanced than the SP500 and the DOW so we should in theory experience the next Bull market corrrection before the USA or Europe.


From my earlier post the All Ords correction due point is now overdue (4666)
The DOW still has some catching up to do to reach their correction due point of 10350.


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW07102009.png

[winner69]

ASX200 has its highest weekly close for ages ... the bear rally that started in March continues its relentless rise .... now 50% above the March lows


Still a liitle way of the 5000 mark which seems to be a logical place to have a bit of a breather --- being a nice round number and the 50% Fib level from the market highs of a year or so and the March low.

Big picture stuff seems more positive than the daily noise you hear .... this week was meant to be the week that was to see a retracement ... but it went up more than 2%

Current semtiment positive .... but remember this is a bear rally in a long term secular bear market .... so watch those charts so you don't give all the recent gains back to the market

[mark100]

ASX200 has its highest weekly close for ages ... the bear rally that started in March continues its relentless rise .... now 50% above the March lows


Still a liitle way of the 5000 mark which seems to be a logical place to have a bit of a breather --- being a nice round number and the 50% Fib level from the market highs of a year or so and the March low.

Big picture stuff seems more positive than the daily noise you hear .... this week was meant to be the week that was to see a retracement ... but it went up more than 2%

Current semtiment positive .... but remember this is a bear rally in a long term secular bear market .... so watch those charts so you don't give all the recent gains back to the market

w69, agree with secular bear for the US but do you also think so for Australia? The Aust market made new highs in the 03-07 run while the US only made it back to around 2000 levels

[ratkin]

Better than expected earnings already flowing out of the US Early days but once again the reality is overcoming the unfounded pessimism

[The Big Ease]

i work for a mobile telcom operator in the UK. We are planning for growth in 2010. Significant growth backed by a significant increase in marketing spend. Make of that what you will.

[ratkin]

Dow 15 points off 10,000, can it make it across the line

[Hoop]

Dow 15 points off 10,000, can it make it across the line

Yep 10016 at close:)
First crossed the 10000 in 1999 and today it has crossed the 10000 line for the 50th time....:eek:
Secular Bear Market in action ...huh?

[Dr_Who]

Amazing year! Who would have guessed that we would recover so fast and so soon.

This has been a good year for those that picked it right. :)

[trackers]

Whoa.. there Trackers.:) Dont get too optimistic. This is the time for caution.

Market predictors always at some stage get kicked in the rear end.

I love to be proved wrong with my prediction method as I am 80 % in stocks...but..these latest two day huge gains have not changed anything in relation to the All Ords...

The DOW is.. as of this morning (down under time) still in a short-term downtrend. (I expect this could break ...if not.. the market correction is earlier than predicted)



How about now? :)

DOW closes above 10k for first time in a year

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/15/business/15markets.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss&src=igw


WTI oil up $2 to a 2009 record at a smidgen under $75 as OPEC upgrades demand outlook :)

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/9128/crude-hits-a-new-high-for-2009-as-opec-upgrades-demand-outlook-9128.html



To be honest though, I'm still treading lightly.

[STRAT]

How about now? :)

DOW closes above 10k for first time in a year

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/15/business/15markets.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss&src=igw


WTI oil up $2 to a 2009 record at a smidgen under $75 as OPEC upgrades demand outlook :)

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/9128/crude-hits-a-new-high-for-2009-as-opec-upgrades-demand-outlook-9128.html



To be honest though, I'm still treading lightly.Great year alright :D

Just cant shake the feelin though, that............:eek:

[Dr_Who]

As long as the Central Banks around the world keep interested low, we should see the market holding up. Keep an eye on those rates. Oh and keep an eye on China also.

[STRAT]

Actually lately does it feel more like......................:D:D:D

[Hoop]

How about now? :)

DOW closes above 10k for first time in a year

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/15/business/15markets.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss&src=igw


WTI oil up $2 to a 2009 record at a smidgen under $75 as OPEC upgrades demand outlook :)

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/9128/crude-hits-a-new-high-for-2009-as-opec-upgrades-demand-outlook-9128.html



To be honest though, I'm still treading lightly.

Nice one Trackers ..... yeah but I haven't quite got egg all over my face yet :).. my #811 post says a market correction for the DOW is due at 10350 still 3% away...mind you though NZX and ASX are now overdue ...so maybe the DOW will keep plugging up past that 10350 to be overdue as well...who knows what tomorrow will bring.

Personally I'm now 87% in stocks (ASX & NZX) and 13% cash...I'm cautious ..but not selling (I have no medium term TA sell signals)

Love your chart Strat...hope the boats insured :D:D

[STRAT]

Love your chart Strat...hope the boats insured :D:DYeah me too :D

All good today for the train though eh? What do they all say on Hot Copper?

Toot Toot :D