TWR - Tower Insurance.

[winner69]

sheesh W69 you really have killed the momentum lol

Hoping I don’t have to double down in the 70’s or worse

Sb9 said he’d take some of the blame as well

[sb9]

Hoping I don’t have to double down in the 70’s or worse

Sb9 said he’d take some of the blame as well

Sure, guilty as charged. It’s a long game, just need to be patient.

[Leemsip]

Tower quietly mooning. If no large events allowance used we should have $100m cashflows for the year end Sept against a $350m market cap. Insane.

93c currently.

Congrats to holders. Wish I went bigger

[Rawz]

The W69 and SB9 curse is finally over??? lol

[Leemsip]

those swine couldnt drag us down RAWZ

[Rawz]

those swine couldnt drag us down RAWZ

Lol.. I'm not too worried about the re-rate stopping. The YTD chart is looking great.

You dont need to wish you went bigger can still get in while its cheap imo!! Will be over $1 soon and then heading to $1.50. And only then trading on a 10x P.E well under its peers.
If TWR dont use that $43m large event allowance they will surely give most of it to shareholders? Cant think of what use they would have of it? They have finished the IT upgrade and capital requirement levels well above requirements..

$30m return is about 8cents a share.

We could get a final dividend of 5 cents + special div of 8 cents? wow that would be a good christmas present

[percy]

https://yhoo.it/4bzJVsE

https://stocknessmonster.com/charts/twr.nzx

Yahoo and Stocknessmonster Tower Charts.
Enjoy.

[ronaldson]

Lol.. I'm not too worried about the re-rate stopping. The YTD chart is looking great.

You dont need to wish you went bigger can still get in while its cheap imo!! Will be over $1 soon and then heading to $1.50. And only then trading on a 10x P.E well under its peers.
If TWR dont use that $43m large event allowance they will surely give most of it to shareholders? Cant think of what use they would have of it? They have finished the IT upgrade and capital requirement levels well above requirements..

$30m return is about 8cents a share.

We could get a final dividend of 5 cents + special div of 8 cents? wow that would be a good christmas present

A special dividend (indeed, any dividend) is not really tax efficient presently, with no imputation credits available. Trusts that don't distribute to beneficiaries pay 39c in the $ tax now. A capital return or buyback is surely better.

If FY24 does prove to be such a good year absent use of the large event allowance then some imputation credits will commence in FY25, again assuming profit meets hopes/expectations then.

Patience is still needed here.

[sb9]

The W69 and SB9 curse is finally over??? lol

Haha, just took exactly a week to recover, patience is a virtue. Hopefully, next stop a buck next week this time, famous last words…:)

[bull....]

Haha, just took exactly a week to recover, patience is a virtue. Hopefully, next stop a buck next week this time, famous last words…:)

should be soon , its like an option as we get closer to expiration ( end of sept ) if there are no events it becomes more valuable

[percy]

should be soon , its like an option as we get closer to expiration ( end of sept ) if there are no events it becomes more valuable

A non-event option...?.

[Antipodean]

Except if these 'non-event' options don't pan out in a few months, you are still left with a profitable company.
Pretty good win-win imo.

[Poet]

With ARV exiting the NZX50 index later in the year. Likely that TWR will be the replacement?

[Rawz]

With ARV exiting the NZX50 index later in the year. Likely that TWR will be the replacement?

If that is the case it will be a very exciting time to hold TWR. Could see a large capital return/buyback and NZ50 inclusion happening the same time :ohmy:

[Poet]

If that is the case it will be a very exciting time to hold TWR. Could see a large capital return/buyback and NZ50 inclusion happening the same time :ohmy:

Looks like WHS will be gone as well

[ronaldson]

Looks like WHS will be gone as well

If so then TWR inclusion even more likely.

[Sideshow Bob]

1,050,000 thru at $0.99

Should crack $1 anytime soon.....:p

[Rawz]

1,050,000 thru at $0.99

Should crack $1 anytime soon.....:p

Looking forward to the $1 party

Up 61% YTD and so much to look forward to later this year

[Lego_Man]

Looking forward to the $1 party

Up 61% YTD and so much to look forward to later this year

There is another 50% appreciation on the table over the next 12 months IMO. Still cheap at these levels and with projected demand for the stock. Being in the NZX50 is worth another couple of turns on the multiple.

[bull....]

There is another 50% appreciation on the table over the next 12 months IMO. Still cheap at these levels and with projected demand for the stock. Being in the NZX50 is worth another couple of turns on the multiple.

index inclusion had a huge effect on tra and hlg stock prices to the upside. so fingers crossed

[Rawz]

There is another 50% appreciation on the table over the next 12 months IMO. Still cheap at these levels and with projected demand for the stock. Being in the NZX50 is worth another couple of turns on the multiple.
TWR guidance for FY26 i.e. 2 years out of $70m uNPAT or eps of 0.184. Say you apply a conservative 10 P/E to that multiple then its $1.84 sp target. This really is conservative considering TWRs industry peers are trading on much higher than 10 multiples.

So yes 50% appreciation on the cards for next 12 months is definitely doable.
Then more after that for 24 months out.

SP is in a strong up trend and we are entering the cycle of interest rates dropping (not good for investment income but good for risk on assets). A lot to like holding TWR.

And as i type it hits $1 :t_up:

[bull....]

30% roughly what hlg , tra went up on index inclusion , gentrack well that was to the moon

[Leemsip]

Looks like another good day for TWR. Started at $1 on decent volume. The ride continues...

[bull....]

forbar's research in june on twr. they rate it well undervalued

https://www.forsythbarr.co.nz/assets/publications/TWR-2024-06-12-Calm-Claims-Help-Elevate-Profit-Projections.pdf

[peat]

forbar's research in june on twr. they rate it well undervalued

https://www.forsythbarr.co.nz/assets/publications/TWR-2024-06-12-Calm-Claims-Help-Elevate-Profit-Projections.pdf

insurance sector very quiet now (claims wise) so could be right

[Sideshow Bob]

Looks like another good day for TWR. Started at $1 on decent volume. The ride continues...

Toot Toot. The Tower train continues, another 4.5%.

Keep stoking FB!!

[bull....]

huge trade went thru. might have read the forbar report an seen 1.50

[Rawz]

TWR is the top performing stock on the NZX this year and think how much more to come if that large event allowance is not utilized or Goldman find a big internation buyer...

[sb9]

Haha, just took exactly a week to recover, patience is a virtue. Hopefully, next stop a buck next week this time, famous last words…:)

Took a day or so extra to get past $1 mark and looks as though has got further legs to go from here...

[bull....]

another 2.5 m crossed at 1.04

[Sideshow Bob]

When I look at volume, NZX and Jarden have different info. Eg for Monday NZX shows 481k, whereas Jarden shows 1.6m.

Think Jarden more accurate as I think there was a 1.05m parcel went through! :sleep:

[Rawz]

Some sort of corporate action is coming folks. Can feel it in my bones

[Sideshow Bob]

Don't know anything about Dent, but not too many other obvious candidates in the top 20?

15197

Would be a bit of fun if something did happen (and yet another company off the NZX).

Or is this trying to say that an offer from "Rawz Insurance Ltd" is incoming?? :p

[Rawz]

Don't know anything about Dent, but not too many other obvious candidates in the top 20?

15197

Would be a bit of fun if something did happen (and yet another company off the NZX).

Or is this trying to say that an offer from "Rawz Insurance Ltd" is incoming?? :p

Bain capital must be the Dent holding?

Rawz Insurance limited is tapped out with 60,000 shares lol.

Just all these big share parcels swapping hands making me wonder if something is afoot?

Agree though that it would be sad for another company to be gone from the NZX. Not that TWR has been a good long term performer. But the future certainly looks bright.

[winner69]

When you put things like ‘Designated Activity’ in your company name something’s afoot

And they are incorporated in Ireland

[Sideshow Bob]

When you put things like ‘Designated Activity’ in your company name something’s afoot

And they are incorporated in Ireland

To be sure, to be sure......

[winner69]

No gossip in AFR or The Australian yet

[winner69]

I’m relieved that another full moon has passed without a big earthquake

Is Ken Ring still around

[Rawz]

I’m relieved that another full moon has passed without a big earthquake

Is Ken Ring still around

Just found his facebook profile. Might have to follow him. Looks like he knows his stuff.

[bull....]

Some sort of corporate action is coming folks. Can feel it in my bones

maybe ? similar worded statements by amp

"AMP today announced a strategic review to explore options to maximize shareholder value and optimize its capital structure."
Outcome: AMP ultimately agreed to a takeover offer from Ares Management, a US-based private equity firm, in a deal worth AU$6.3 billion.
Similarities:


Both Tower Limited and AMP Limited used similar language in their statements, mentioning a strategic review to "maximize shareholder value" and "optimize capital structure".



Both companies engaged financial advisers to assist with the review process.
Both reviews were supported by significant shareholders.

[Rawz]

maybe ? similar worded statements by amp

"AMP today announced a strategic review to explore options to maximize shareholder value and optimize its capital structure."
Outcome: AMP ultimately agreed to a takeover offer from Ares Management, a US-based private equity firm, in a deal worth AU$6.3 billion.
Similarities:


Both Tower Limited and AMP Limited used similar language in their statements, mentioning a strategic review to "maximize shareholder value" and "optimize capital structure".



Both companies engaged financial advisers to assist with the review process.
Both reviews were supported by significant shareholders.



interesting! thanks for sharing.

what was the valuation method used? book value multiple or earnings multiple?

[winner69]

That Pacific International outfit will be involved in any Corp activity

[bull....]

interesting! thanks for sharing.

what was the valuation method used? book value multiple or earnings multiple?

Valuation Methods Used in AMP Sale


According to publicly available information, the valuation methods used in the AMP sale to Ares Management included:


Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Comparable Companies Analysis (CCA)
Precedent Transactions Analysis (PTA)


Asset-Based Valuation


The valuation multiples reportedly used in the AMP sale included:


Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 12.5x - 15x


Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: 1.2x - 1.5x


Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) Ratio: 8x - 10x
Sale Price


the sale price of AU$6.3 billion represented a:
26% premium to AMP's closing share price on the day before the announcement
20% premium to AMP's 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP)

[bull....]

qbe had a takeover of westfarmers general insurance in 2021

price to book of 1.43x
pe multiple of 14.5x
ev to ebitda 10.3x

[Sideshow Bob]

Sure shareholders jumped at the chance to get a bit of a premium on current shareholders, but longterm holders have taken a pounding (although should have exited years ago).

15198

Don't know much about AMP, except they were beyond useless when I had my Kiwisaver with them, when they took over my provider.

[Leemsip]

Confidence shaken to the core today. Down a couple of cents... is this the turn? Is the insurance biz not profitable any more? Does someone know about an impending disaster before the dividends come in? Is Stiassny still alive and why hasnt the company announced anything to mitigate this loss of confidence?

[percy]

The Tower share price falls on low volume,while it rises on high volume.The share price remains in a strong uptrend .

[sb9]

Looks like Salt are feeding the sell side at regular intervals.

[bull....]

3m of there sales was a transfer . so they hardly sold any


this is what they said in june

By far the largest positive was our large, long-held position in
Tower (TWR, +9.6%). With the benefit of knowing in hindsight
about biblical floods and rampant claims of cost inflation, we
may have been a couple of years too early, but it is working in
spades now. The new news was that TWR upgraded their
guidance again for 24-year NPAT to be greater than $40m
rather than greater than $35m previously. We found this
upgraded guidance a little odd as it came only two weeks after
their interim result and nothing obvious changed in the
interim.
Our take is it still looks conservative and that it is
before the huge potential impact of their large events
allowance. If there are no major calamities before endSeptember, NPAT will lift by a further $32m – massive in the
context of a $330m market cap.

they then say

In our view, the market materially mis-forecasts TWR as having to eat their full large
events allowance every year, when history suggests it is far
less frequent than this. ( meaning undervalue it )

[sb9]

Thanks bull, I just skim read it. I’m picking we may see late flurry to finish slightly up or flat for the day.