TWR - Tower Insurance.

[winner69]

sheesh W69 you really have killed the momentum lol

Hoping I don’t have to double down in the 70’s or worse

Sb9 said he’d take some of the blame as well

[sb9]

Hoping I don’t have to double down in the 70’s or worse

Sb9 said he’d take some of the blame as well

Sure, guilty as charged. It’s a long game, just need to be patient.

[Leemsip]

Tower quietly mooning. If no large events allowance used we should have $100m cashflows for the year end Sept against a $350m market cap. Insane.

93c currently.

Congrats to holders. Wish I went bigger

[Rawz]

The W69 and SB9 curse is finally over??? lol

[Leemsip]

those swine couldnt drag us down RAWZ

[Rawz]

those swine couldnt drag us down RAWZ

Lol.. I'm not too worried about the re-rate stopping. The YTD chart is looking great.

You dont need to wish you went bigger can still get in while its cheap imo!! Will be over $1 soon and then heading to $1.50. And only then trading on a 10x P.E well under its peers.
If TWR dont use that $43m large event allowance they will surely give most of it to shareholders? Cant think of what use they would have of it? They have finished the IT upgrade and capital requirement levels well above requirements..

$30m return is about 8cents a share.

We could get a final dividend of 5 cents + special div of 8 cents? wow that would be a good christmas present

[percy]

https://yhoo.it/4bzJVsE

https://stocknessmonster.com/charts/twr.nzx

Yahoo and Stocknessmonster Tower Charts.
Enjoy.

[ronaldson]

Lol.. I'm not too worried about the re-rate stopping. The YTD chart is looking great.

You dont need to wish you went bigger can still get in while its cheap imo!! Will be over $1 soon and then heading to $1.50. And only then trading on a 10x P.E well under its peers.
If TWR dont use that $43m large event allowance they will surely give most of it to shareholders? Cant think of what use they would have of it? They have finished the IT upgrade and capital requirement levels well above requirements..

$30m return is about 8cents a share.

We could get a final dividend of 5 cents + special div of 8 cents? wow that would be a good christmas present

A special dividend (indeed, any dividend) is not really tax efficient presently, with no imputation credits available. Trusts that don't distribute to beneficiaries pay 39c in the $ tax now. A capital return or buyback is surely better.

If FY24 does prove to be such a good year absent use of the large event allowance then some imputation credits will commence in FY25, again assuming profit meets hopes/expectations then.

Patience is still needed here.

[sb9]

The W69 and SB9 curse is finally over??? lol

Haha, just took exactly a week to recover, patience is a virtue. Hopefully, next stop a buck next week this time, famous last words…:)

[bull....]

Haha, just took exactly a week to recover, patience is a virtue. Hopefully, next stop a buck next week this time, famous last words…:)

should be soon , its like an option as we get closer to expiration ( end of sept ) if there are no events it becomes more valuable

[percy]

should be soon , its like an option as we get closer to expiration ( end of sept ) if there are no events it becomes more valuable

A non-event option...?.

[Antipodean]

Except if these 'non-event' options don't pan out in a few months, you are still left with a profitable company.
Pretty good win-win imo.

[Poet]

With ARV exiting the NZX50 index later in the year. Likely that TWR will be the replacement?

[Rawz]

With ARV exiting the NZX50 index later in the year. Likely that TWR will be the replacement?

If that is the case it will be a very exciting time to hold TWR. Could see a large capital return/buyback and NZ50 inclusion happening the same time :ohmy:

[Poet]

If that is the case it will be a very exciting time to hold TWR. Could see a large capital return/buyback and NZ50 inclusion happening the same time :ohmy:

Looks like WHS will be gone as well

[ronaldson]

Looks like WHS will be gone as well

If so then TWR inclusion even more likely.

[Sideshow Bob]

1,050,000 thru at $0.99

Should crack $1 anytime soon.....:p

[Rawz]

1,050,000 thru at $0.99

Should crack $1 anytime soon.....:p

Looking forward to the $1 party

Up 61% YTD and so much to look forward to later this year

[Lego_Man]

Looking forward to the $1 party

Up 61% YTD and so much to look forward to later this year

There is another 50% appreciation on the table over the next 12 months IMO. Still cheap at these levels and with projected demand for the stock. Being in the NZX50 is worth another couple of turns on the multiple.

[bull....]

There is another 50% appreciation on the table over the next 12 months IMO. Still cheap at these levels and with projected demand for the stock. Being in the NZX50 is worth another couple of turns on the multiple.

index inclusion had a huge effect on tra and hlg stock prices to the upside. so fingers crossed

[Rawz]

There is another 50% appreciation on the table over the next 12 months IMO. Still cheap at these levels and with projected demand for the stock. Being in the NZX50 is worth another couple of turns on the multiple.
TWR guidance for FY26 i.e. 2 years out of $70m uNPAT or eps of 0.184. Say you apply a conservative 10 P/E to that multiple then its $1.84 sp target. This really is conservative considering TWRs industry peers are trading on much higher than 10 multiples.

So yes 50% appreciation on the cards for next 12 months is definitely doable.
Then more after that for 24 months out.

SP is in a strong up trend and we are entering the cycle of interest rates dropping (not good for investment income but good for risk on assets). A lot to like holding TWR.

And as i type it hits $1 :t_up:

[bull....]

30% roughly what hlg , tra went up on index inclusion , gentrack well that was to the moon

[Leemsip]

Looks like another good day for TWR. Started at $1 on decent volume. The ride continues...

[bull....]

forbar's research in june on twr. they rate it well undervalued

https://www.forsythbarr.co.nz/assets/publications/TWR-2024-06-12-Calm-Claims-Help-Elevate-Profit-Projections.pdf

[peat]

forbar's research in june on twr. they rate it well undervalued

https://www.forsythbarr.co.nz/assets/publications/TWR-2024-06-12-Calm-Claims-Help-Elevate-Profit-Projections.pdf

insurance sector very quiet now (claims wise) so could be right

[Sideshow Bob]

Looks like another good day for TWR. Started at $1 on decent volume. The ride continues...

Toot Toot. The Tower train continues, another 4.5%.

Keep stoking FB!!

[bull....]

huge trade went thru. might have read the forbar report an seen 1.50

[Rawz]

TWR is the top performing stock on the NZX this year and think how much more to come if that large event allowance is not utilized or Goldman find a big internation buyer...

[sb9]

Haha, just took exactly a week to recover, patience is a virtue. Hopefully, next stop a buck next week this time, famous last words…:)

Took a day or so extra to get past $1 mark and looks as though has got further legs to go from here...

[bull....]

another 2.5 m crossed at 1.04

[Sideshow Bob]

When I look at volume, NZX and Jarden have different info. Eg for Monday NZX shows 481k, whereas Jarden shows 1.6m.

Think Jarden more accurate as I think there was a 1.05m parcel went through! :sleep:

[Rawz]

Some sort of corporate action is coming folks. Can feel it in my bones

[Sideshow Bob]

Don't know anything about Dent, but not too many other obvious candidates in the top 20?

15197

Would be a bit of fun if something did happen (and yet another company off the NZX).

Or is this trying to say that an offer from "Rawz Insurance Ltd" is incoming?? :p

[Rawz]

Don't know anything about Dent, but not too many other obvious candidates in the top 20?

15197

Would be a bit of fun if something did happen (and yet another company off the NZX).

Or is this trying to say that an offer from "Rawz Insurance Ltd" is incoming?? :p

Bain capital must be the Dent holding?

Rawz Insurance limited is tapped out with 60,000 shares lol.

Just all these big share parcels swapping hands making me wonder if something is afoot?

Agree though that it would be sad for another company to be gone from the NZX. Not that TWR has been a good long term performer. But the future certainly looks bright.

[winner69]

When you put things like ‘Designated Activity’ in your company name something’s afoot

And they are incorporated in Ireland

[Sideshow Bob]

When you put things like ‘Designated Activity’ in your company name something’s afoot

And they are incorporated in Ireland

To be sure, to be sure......

[winner69]

No gossip in AFR or The Australian yet

[winner69]

I’m relieved that another full moon has passed without a big earthquake

Is Ken Ring still around

[Rawz]

I’m relieved that another full moon has passed without a big earthquake

Is Ken Ring still around

Just found his facebook profile. Might have to follow him. Looks like he knows his stuff.

[bull....]

Some sort of corporate action is coming folks. Can feel it in my bones

maybe ? similar worded statements by amp

"AMP today announced a strategic review to explore options to maximize shareholder value and optimize its capital structure."
Outcome: AMP ultimately agreed to a takeover offer from Ares Management, a US-based private equity firm, in a deal worth AU$6.3 billion.
Similarities:


Both Tower Limited and AMP Limited used similar language in their statements, mentioning a strategic review to "maximize shareholder value" and "optimize capital structure".



Both companies engaged financial advisers to assist with the review process.
Both reviews were supported by significant shareholders.

[Rawz]

maybe ? similar worded statements by amp

"AMP today announced a strategic review to explore options to maximize shareholder value and optimize its capital structure."
Outcome: AMP ultimately agreed to a takeover offer from Ares Management, a US-based private equity firm, in a deal worth AU$6.3 billion.
Similarities:


Both Tower Limited and AMP Limited used similar language in their statements, mentioning a strategic review to "maximize shareholder value" and "optimize capital structure".



Both companies engaged financial advisers to assist with the review process.
Both reviews were supported by significant shareholders.



interesting! thanks for sharing.

what was the valuation method used? book value multiple or earnings multiple?

[winner69]

That Pacific International outfit will be involved in any Corp activity

[bull....]

interesting! thanks for sharing.

what was the valuation method used? book value multiple or earnings multiple?

Valuation Methods Used in AMP Sale


According to publicly available information, the valuation methods used in the AMP sale to Ares Management included:


Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Comparable Companies Analysis (CCA)
Precedent Transactions Analysis (PTA)


Asset-Based Valuation


The valuation multiples reportedly used in the AMP sale included:


Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 12.5x - 15x


Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: 1.2x - 1.5x


Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) Ratio: 8x - 10x
Sale Price


the sale price of AU$6.3 billion represented a:
26% premium to AMP's closing share price on the day before the announcement
20% premium to AMP's 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP)

[bull....]

qbe had a takeover of westfarmers general insurance in 2021

price to book of 1.43x
pe multiple of 14.5x
ev to ebitda 10.3x

[Sideshow Bob]

Sure shareholders jumped at the chance to get a bit of a premium on current shareholders, but longterm holders have taken a pounding (although should have exited years ago).

15198

Don't know much about AMP, except they were beyond useless when I had my Kiwisaver with them, when they took over my provider.

[Leemsip]

Confidence shaken to the core today. Down a couple of cents... is this the turn? Is the insurance biz not profitable any more? Does someone know about an impending disaster before the dividends come in? Is Stiassny still alive and why hasnt the company announced anything to mitigate this loss of confidence?

[percy]

The Tower share price falls on low volume,while it rises on high volume.The share price remains in a strong uptrend .

[sb9]

Looks like Salt are feeding the sell side at regular intervals.

[bull....]

3m of there sales was a transfer . so they hardly sold any


this is what they said in june

By far the largest positive was our large, long-held position in
Tower (TWR, +9.6%). With the benefit of knowing in hindsight
about biblical floods and rampant claims of cost inflation, we
may have been a couple of years too early, but it is working in
spades now. The new news was that TWR upgraded their
guidance again for 24-year NPAT to be greater than $40m
rather than greater than $35m previously. We found this
upgraded guidance a little odd as it came only two weeks after
their interim result and nothing obvious changed in the
interim.
Our take is it still looks conservative and that it is
before the huge potential impact of their large events
allowance. If there are no major calamities before endSeptember, NPAT will lift by a further $32m – massive in the
context of a $330m market cap.

they then say

In our view, the market materially mis-forecasts TWR as having to eat their full large
events allowance every year, when history suggests it is far
less frequent than this. ( meaning undervalue it )

[sb9]

Thanks bull, I just skim read it. I’m picking we may see late flurry to finish slightly up or flat for the day.

[Leemsip]

Hmmm I dont really understand the Salt disclosure (what is an inspecie transfer?)

I do think Salt will have to sell some TWR, as I understand they arent allowed more than a certain % of the long/short fund in one stock (is it 7%?). As the share price heads up they will have to sell down to meet their mandate.... Anyone got any thoughts on this?

[Lego_Man]

Hmmm I dont really understand the Salt disclosure (what is an inspecie transfer?)

I do think Salt will have to sell some TWR, as I understand they arent allowed more than a certain % of the long/short fund in one stock (is it 7%?). As the share price heads up they will have to sell down to meet their mandate.... Anyone got any thoughts on this?

The Salt L/S Fund is pretty small, less than $100m so I don't see that as a threat at all.

[bull....]

Hmmm I dont really understand the Salt disclosure (what is an inspecie transfer?)

I do think Salt will have to sell some TWR, as I understand they arent allowed more than a certain % of the long/short fund in one stock (is it 7%?). As the share price heads up they will have to sell down to meet their mandate.... Anyone got any thoughts on this?

means they probably transferred it to another fund they have. if so it could be for re-balancing purposes or it could be to put some of a good stock in a not so good performing funfd to help it out but at the same time maintaining the same % exposure overall. transferring saves brokerage.

[Rawz]

new 52 week high.

tipped over $400m market cap.

go you good thing

'Tower, the shining light of the NZX'

[Leemsip]

absolutely surging. $1.20 looks easy now... This is holding my portfolio up beautifully...

[winner69]

new 52 week high.

tipped over $400m market cap.

go you good thing

'Tower, the shining light of the NZX'

It was $1.50 10 years ago Rawz

I’d take that if Bain facilitated a takeover

[Leemsip]

Id take one fittee as well.

[Rawz]

Tower is a completely different company from 10 years ago. Basically, a new company.

Forecasting 18.4 eps in FY26.... put a 10 p/e on it and thats $1.84 SP target.

$1.50 per share is far too cheap. Pretty much just giving the company away.

Better to hold, keep enjoying the re-rate. Collect the ever-growing dividends. And get the bonus buybacks if the large event allowance isnt used.

BTW, that large event allowance is budgeted at 7.67% of budgeted GWP for FY26.. when historically about half that is used. So these forecast EPS for FY25 (13.2cents) and FY26 (18.4cents) could actually turn out to be FY25 (20cents) and FY26 (26cents)...

'Tower, the shining light of the NZX'

[Rawz]

Forecast
Forecast
Forecast



FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
FY26


GWP
$ 357,000,000
$ 385,000,000
$ 404,000,000
$ 457,000,000
$ 527,000,000
$ 592,875,000
$ 652,162,500
$ 717,378,750


Net Cost Large Events
$ 1,000,000
$ 10,000,000
$ 14,000,000
$ 20,000,000
$ 37,000,000
$ -
$ 50,000,000
$ 55,000,000


% of GWP
0.28%
2.60%
3.47%
4.38%
7.02%
0.00%
7.67%
7.67%

[ronaldson]

$1.10 on-market this morning. When the small number now available at that price are gone there are currently no seller until $1.125.

[stoploss]

$1.10 on-market this morning. When the small number now available at that price are gone there are currently no seller until $1.125.
No need to encourage old mate from Sharsies :)

[Rawz]

No need to encourage old mate from Sharsies :)


Price
Volume
Time


$1.125
22
31-Jul-2024 11:56



Sharesies guy tried but seems small volume doesnt move the price? even thou the trade went through

[Rawz]

I see Craig's have a motto for Tower like I do. But i think theirs is better :scared:

'A Tower of Strength'

[winner69]

I see Craig's have a motto for Tower like I do. But i think theirs is better :scared:

'A Tower of Strength'


No mate, stick with your shining light

The lighthouse has been part of Tower well before it was even Tower

I remember them putting a light in the lighthouse logo when they had an office in Customhouse Quay, Wellington ..that was cool

And they once had a Lighthouse Keeper ad campaign

Stick with tradition

[ronaldson]

Price
Volume
Time


$1.125
22
31-Jul-2024 11:56



Sharesies guy tried but seems small volume doesnt move the price? even thou the trade went through

I think the price isn't adjusted unless at least 100 shares traded. Should be 500 in my view given the rise in sharesies type buys/sells. Maybe it's different at market close when any transaction is sufficient?

Can anyone tell us what rule is applied? Possibly it varies according to the price of an individual share too?

[bull....]

so NZ brokers consensus around 1.50 now for stock price

[Rawz]

so NZ brokers consensus around 1.50 now for stock price

NZX50 inclusion and unused large event allowance will get us there by x-mas i reckon.

[flyinglizard]

started to pick some, not a big deal.

[winner69]

‘Strong earthquake’ in Wellington last night

No damage …that’s good

But then Tower probably don’t cover many Wellington buildings anyway

So all good

[Leemsip]

Was wondering what a drop in interest rates means for TWR.

They got $8m interest income at the half hear, so lets say $16m full year on $267m investments, so getting 6%.
Might get cut in half if the NZ Reserve Bank drops us into the abyss?

Not ideal, but just a flesh wound if they can repeat the $70m odd NPAT prediction from this year...

[winner69]

Was wondering what a drop in interest rates means for TWR.

They got $8m interest income at the half hear, so lets say $16m full year on $267m investments, so getting 6%.
Might get cut in half if the NZ Reserve Bank drops us into the abyss?

Not ideal, but just a flesh wound if they can repeat the $70m odd NPAT prediction from this year...

Lower interest rates should help share price ...esp for those keen on divies

[percy]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/435796

Tower Updates Guidance
8/08/2024, 08:30 NZST, MKTUPDTE
8 August 2024

Tower updates guidance

Kiwi insurer, Tower Limited (NZX/ASX: TWR) now expects underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) for the financial year ending 30 September 2024 to be greater than $45m, an increase on previous guidance which was for NPAT of more than $40m.

Tower’s business-as-usual (BAU) claims performance has been stronger than expected since its guidance update on 11 June 2024. This is due to both the continuation of Tower’s targeted underwriting actions to tackle the impacts of vehicle thefts and unseasonably benign weather in New Zealand.

Gross written premium (GWP) growth is expected to be at the top end of, or exceed, current GWP guidance of 10% to 15%.

This updated guidance assumes full utilisation of the FY24 large events allowance which is conservatively set at $45m. In a departure from recent norms, no large events have been recorded in the financial year to date. Any unused portion of the large events allowance at year end will increase underlying NPAT to improve the full year result. For example, if no large events were to occur in FY24, underlying NPAT would be increased by an additional $32m ($45m less tax).

ENDS

This announcement has been authorised by Blair Turnbull, CEO, Tower Limited.

[ronaldson]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/435796

No large events yet. Cross fingers but it is looking like TWR could eliminate its accumulated losses almost entirely in FY24 and pay imputed dividends in FY25, which would be massive.

And GWP growth even higher than anticipated which indicates going gangbusters even in this recessionary environment. And remember that they have divested entirely from some (more risky) jurisdictions.

[bull....]

should be soon , its like an option as we get closer to expiration ( end of sept ) if there are no events it becomes more valuable

like we say , more valuable by the day

[Leemsip]

lets go $1.50

[Rawz]

The good news up cycle continues. Some will say it’s just good luck, like thanks to low claims, weather etc

Compare to say FBU whom are in a bad news down cycle. Broken boats n pipes etc. some will say it’s just bad luck..

Maybe you make your own luck? Comes from winning internally I reckon

[silverblizzard888]

Got to give it to Michael Stiassny, two of the best turnarounds this year has been under his Chair. Anyone going for the trifecta and betting on NTL (director there and not Chair) getting gold this year too.

[Poet]

No large events yet. Cross fingers but it is looking like TWR could eliminate its accumulated losses almost entirely in FY24 and pay imputed dividends in FY25, which would be massive.

And GWP growth even higher than anticipated which indicates going gangbusters even in this recessionary environment. And remember that they have divested entirely from some (more risky) jurisdictions.

Yes, I think you are right about this Ronaldson.

At the last FY report TWR was carrying $16m of deferred tax asset. If I'm not mistaken, this is available to offset future taxes payable so will cover a profit of $16/0.28=$57m. after that, the tax will be actually payable to IRD and will be available as imputation credits on dividends.

So if they don't use the large event allowance this year and hence make a before tax profit of $107m, they will fully eliminate their tax losses and will pay $107mX0.28-$16m=$14m to the IRD

With $14m in imputation credits available, they will then be able to pay a fully imputed gross dividend of $50m or gross 13c per share. 9.4c per share net with $3.6c of tax credit.

Disclosure: Holding more than is good for me and definitely not an accountant so above could be totally wrong DYOR

[Southern Lad]

Yes, I think you are right about this Ronaldson.

At the last FY report TWR was carrying $16m of deferred tax asset. If I'm not mistaken, this is available to offset future taxes payable so will cover a profit of $16/0.28=$57m. a

The $16m is a net deferred tax amount. If you look at Note 3.1 in the 2023 annual report, there is a disclosure that tax losses were $106 million with a tax effect at 28% of $29.4m. So unlikely to be any tax payable in 2024 even if the large event allowance is not used.

[Poet]

The $16m is a net deferred tax amount. If you look at Note 3.1 in the 2023 annual report, there is a disclosure that tax losses were $106 million with a tax effect at 28% of $29.4m. So unlikely to be any tax payable in 2024 even if the large event allowance is not used.

Thanks - always more complicated than it looks when it comes to tax

[sb9]

Looks like this one stuck sideways since the upgrade last week. Not much action happening, unless something big’s abt to explode.

[alokdhir]

Looks like this one stuck sideways since the upgrade last week. Not much action happening, unless something big’s abt to explode.

Big supplier at $ 1.15 ...just keeps on giving :p

[Rawz]

Still good value at these levels.

Simply because we have the possible nzx50 inclusion and large capital return later this year.

Most brokers have this at $1.50ish valuation

[ValueNZ]

Something is good value because of the possibility of an index inclusion?

[alokdhir]

Still good value at these levels.

Simply because we have the possible nzx50 inclusion and large capital return later this year.

Most brokers have this at $1.50ish valuation

How much capital return possible after Nov results if all large incident fund is saved ? 100% of it as special dividend or they may retain some ? Do Insurance companies like to start every FY with clean slate or they do carry overs of both positives and negatives ...like last year was a loss year thus they cancelled dividend promptly ....this year is lotto year based on massive increase in premiums based on just one bad year and also exceptional good luck with calamities . Just trying to understand they will give out all earnings to holders or keep some to share ahead or in kitty ?

[Rawz]

How much capital return possible after Nov results if all large incident fund is saved ? 100% of it as special dividend or they may retain some ? Do Insurance companies like to start every FY with clean slate or they do carry overs of both positives and negatives ...like last year was a loss year thus they cancelled dividend promptly ....this year is lotto year based on massive increase in premiums based on just one bad year and also exceptional good luck with calamities . Just trying to understand they will give out all earnings to holders or keep some to share ahead or in kitty ?

Good question. Stiassny has previously said that they want TWR dividends to be stable. So maybe they hold some back as a buffer.

At half year they held $307m solvency capital. This is $117m above RBNZ requirements, which is up from $79m at FY23. So I assume they dont need to build that buffer anymore? RBNZ could propose new solvency standards which would affect FY25. However maybe TWR $117m buffer is already enough to cover any such increase in solvency margin.

The large event allowance is worth 11.3 cents per share

[Rawz]

Something is good value because of the possibility of an index inclusion?

Most brokers have sp spot price target at ~$1.50

TWR have given guidance for FY25 of EPS 13.2 and FY26 EPS 18.4 (which are increasing looking more and more conservative). This puts TWR on forward PE of 6-8. Compared to TWRs competitors all trading low teens.

Index inclusion will bring buying demand and more coverage and maybe further re-rate

[alokdhir]

Good question. Stiassny has previously said that they want TWR dividends to be stable. So maybe they hold some back as a buffer.

At half year they held $307m solvency capital. This is $117m above RBNZ requirements, which is up from $79m at FY23. So I assume they dont need to build that buffer anymore? RBNZ could propose new solvency standards which would affect FY25. However maybe TWR $117m buffer is already enough to cover any such increase in solvency margin.

The large event allowance is worth 11.3 cents per share

Thanks mate ...very informative as I was starting from scratch ...if say no change to solvency requirements thus no need shore them from any sources then 45Mil year end profit plus unused large event fund = $ 77 mil as per last update ...what part is prudent to expect will come back to holders ? 5 cents normal dividend plus 8 cents special dividend ? Is it fair to expect ??


PS : I read above TWR future guidances ...are they subject to BAU operations with some large incident back ups ? If anything bigger happens then these guidances will take a hit ? Just trying to know if LT investing in an insurance company involves large slice of luck also ??

[Leemsip]

Hoping for dividend + buyback. Got to give the shareholders something after a lean decade. Lower share count will benefit everyone.

Buyback is interesting though, as TWR is pretty thinly traded and low market cap already.... Not sure how this would pan out?

[Rawz]

Thanks mate ...very informative as I was starting from scratch ...if say no change to solvency requirements thus no need shore them from any sources then 45Mil year end profit plus unused large event fund = $ 77 mil as per last update ...what part is prudent to expect welcome to holders ? 5 cents normal dividend plus 8 cents special dividend ? Is it fair to expect ??

Yes that would be very nice and right in time for Christmas :eek2:

[winner69]

See Turners have taken a shareholding in Quashed, an online insurance comparison tool

Hope it’s programmed to steer punters the Tower way

[alokdhir]

See Turners have taken a shareholding in Quashed, an online insurance comparison tool

Hope it’s programmed to steer punters the Tower way

I will take online comparison sites negative for TWR ...as most of the time they are not the best option as per many customers ...hopefully they are working on changing that impression

[Rawz]

...


PS : I read above TWR future guidances ...are they subject to BAU operations with some large incident back ups ? If anything bigger happens then these guidances will take a hit ? Just trying to know if LT investing in an insurance company involves large slice of luck also ??

Yes subject to BAU claims and assume full use of FY25 $50M and FY26 $55M large event allowance. I have said in the past that these large event allowances are 7.7% of forecast GWP when historically only 3-4% is used. So everything looks fairly conservative to me.

[alokdhir]

Yes subject to BAU claims and assume full use of FY25 $50M and FY26 $55M large event allowance. I have said in the past that these large event allowances are 7.7% of forecast GWP when historically only 3-4% is used. So everything looks fairly conservative to me.

Thanks again buddy ...yes all looks nice . Hopefully competition wont be party pooper !!

[Leemsip]

competition just doesnt seem nimble at all in this space. TWR adverts everywhere, cleverly not taking high risk insurance on, slick back office processing....

I keep adding shares here, as I think the risk reward over the next 6 months is incredible. Hit my max allowance for any one share now....

[winner69]

This touted $1.50 seems to be a pipe dream

Trying to be patient …. But still have that feeling jeez this is an insurance company after all and something bad might happen

[percy]

This touted $1.50 seems to be a pipe dream

Trying to be patient …. But still have that feeling jeez this is an insurance company after all and something bad might happen

Living in Wellington and following The Warriors you need something good to happen.
Best insurance maybe holding TWR shares?..............lol./

[Sideshow Bob]

Good things take time Winner.

Please don't taint this thread with mention of those loser Warriors! :scared:

[winner69]

Good things take time Winner.

Please don't taint this thread with mention of those loser Warriors! :scared:

Been patient so far …….. got at 70 cents odd and averaged up at 99

[alokdhir]

Been patient so far …….. got at 70 cents odd and averaged up at 99

Your mate Mr B came in around $ 1 and he is pretty certain of Index inclusion bump ...he is mostly right with his calculations ...so I think Rawz target of $ 1.50 will happen in this calendar :t_up:

[peat]

nearly doubled this calendar year and most of that in the last few months
looks a little like a blow off top to me.

[Sideshow Bob]

nearly doubled this calendar year and most of that in the last few months
looks a little like a blow off top to me.

Google says up 79.39% in the past 12 months.

Still, hard pleasing some people.

"This is our year"

[Southern Lad]

I assume it will follow that an increase in gross written premiums means that Tower now has more risk to manage and therefore the capital adequacy amount required by regulators will also increase, so not all of the FY24 free cashflow is available for distribution to shareholders.

Of course that assumes Tower are growing their book not just charging more for covering the same risk.

Inflation will no doubt increase the cost of meeting claims even if the headline total loss covered in each policy doesn’t increase.

Exiting some of the more risky policies should presumably be taken into account for capital adequacy purposes.

[ronaldson]

Not sure paying unimputed dividends currently would be a great use of spare cash, especially as any FY25 dividend/s are now likely to be at least partially imputed.

The March 2022 1 for 10 Capital Return at 72cps is now looking like a great use of surplus funds. A similar action at present prices would obviously cost more, although the shares on issue now total roughly 379m as opposed to the 421m on issue before that 2022 corporate action.

We now have a 39c tax bracket in this country, which has recently been extended to apply to Trustee income. A lot of folk/investors are looking more closely at tax liability on income now and the TWR Board will be aware of that, and possibly even personally affected, so maybe don't expect a bumper dividend this time?