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Waltzing
21-09-2022, 10:52 AM
this is a BB that did not need to happen.. instead some big special DIV's would have been better...

these BB are for management to dump into...

its a shame..

MauroNZ
21-09-2022, 11:10 AM
this is a BB that did not need to happen.. instead some big special DIV's would have been better...

these BB are for management to dump into...

its a shame..

I get a similar feeling, also compared to other retailers in NZ at least it seems there are better options. I bought in 2013 at $1.28 and still holding but seriously considering other options..

Rawz
21-09-2022, 11:14 AM
nothing wrong with the buyback.

NZ/AUS have such a strong market position. this is the base
Canada growing and could be bigger than Aus one day.
Exciting online opportunities

trading very cheaply- P/E of no growth factored in. Solid dividend yield

cant see any reason to sell

Waltzing
21-09-2022, 11:43 AM
Did they remove qtr reporting?

to half year?

not happy with that either...

what tech are they using... speed of fibre people... its here..

its not 2000.....

But RAW one hopes your right...

Sorry come from a long line of Accountants and QC's

Winner will say that dooms one to glass half full..

when we see if break 130 will post statement saying we were wrong...

Rawz
21-09-2022, 12:37 PM
Quarterly reporting is just a distraction. let management get on with running the business.

Its been a few years since new CEO/CFO/Chairman came in and changed the strategy.. which has been a huge success. they deserve shareholders trust

Rawz
21-09-2022, 12:39 PM
i reckon if one bought MHJ and GNE for the dividend right now and looked back in 10 years time the MHJ dividend pile would be higher. discuss

Waltzing
21-09-2022, 12:56 PM
Audits are in place for Trust.

someone is feeding 15K odd size blocks in...

sellers of that size are optimizing brokerage and usually have a lot more behind that to sell.

Not always but those sizes are what trading operations deal in for low vol stocks.

To optimize brokerage on some platforms sale blocks are standardised.

DISC: not from one of our portfolios in private companies.

LaserEyeKiwi
22-09-2022, 04:09 PM
Too low a sample size to judge, but in the first 3 days of buyback, the average daily amount acquired is significantly less than the average needed over the 12 month buyback period.

average over 12 months: 77.7k daily
average over first 3 days: 56.7k daily

Rawz
22-09-2022, 04:53 PM
how soon does a substantial shareholder have to disclose to the market if they sell shares?

Waltzing
22-09-2022, 06:02 PM
https://map.nzx.com/static/forms/docs/20170927-Guidance-on-substantial-product-holder-disclosures.pdf

GUIDE to Disclosure... enthralling stuff.

well LEK your a ray of sun shine...

OCR rates are going to be high high high till later next year emploding the market according to some on CNBC...

Winner will come and on nd trash them and i hope hes right... the dot plot...

Waltzing
23-09-2022, 04:51 PM
More sales of size 10 to 20 range.

every day..

Common practise.

LaserEyeKiwi
24-09-2022, 08:58 AM
Yesterday: 403k on ASX, 145k on NZX

Will be interesting to see disclosures on Monday.

winner69
24-09-2022, 09:21 AM
Yesterday: 403k on ASX, 145k on NZX

Will be interesting to see disclosures on Monday.

From disclosure late yesterday on ASX (which I assume includes yesterday's activity as ASX closed Thursday) total buyback to date is 534,050 shares ... all but 33,246 on ASX

If I read Emily's numbers correctly buyback has been 73% of activity on ASX .....hmmmm ..... that is not that good

winner69
27-09-2022, 12:16 PM
Good they seem to be paying a bit more now

All a bit artificial eh .....but who cares as it's only those 'selling' into the buyback who will be losing (unless they realising gains they have made)

Waltzing
27-09-2022, 12:22 PM
Winner() isnt everything for sale at the right price?

MauroNZ
27-09-2022, 01:47 PM
I guess within the average trading day in NZ, just a volume of 77,088.

winner69
28-09-2022, 09:24 AM
Thank you Forbar and MHJ for giving the share price a big boost yesterday

Forbar must have thought they were missing out on the action so joined the party yesterday

Keep at it guys .... 2 bucks is some way off

Waltzing
28-09-2022, 12:09 PM
looks like the bigger sized lots are starting to appear... over 300 lot size at 134...

Waltzing
28-09-2022, 12:57 PM
compared to normal VOl this is heavy dumping...

winner69
28-09-2022, 01:01 PM
compared to normal VOl this is heavy dumping...

All a big game eh

I wouldn't be surprised if NZ Regco and ASX ask some questions about the 'integrity' / 'orderlyness' of this buyback


Hope they don't else the share price might collapse through the floor

Waltzing
28-09-2022, 01:35 PM
Does not look ordely except from the point of view as the sellers.

If selling you would have to be very happy with the liquidity...

its all been prearranged.

You can tell the sellers waited and perhaps communciated with the brokers and the orders aggregated and feed into the machine.

You dont go from nothing much to this and it all goes this smoothly not moving the price beyond the weekly allowed range.

Rawz
28-09-2022, 01:38 PM
Does not look ordely except from the point of view as the sellers.

If selling you would have to be very happy with the liquidity...

its all been prearranged.

You can tell the sellers waited and perhaps communciated with the brokers and the orders aggregated and feed into the machine.

You dont go from nothing much to this and it all goes this smoothly not moving the price beyond the weekly allowed range.

But what's wrong with waiting for the buy back to sell if you are a big holder? What is the injustice here?

Waltzing
28-09-2022, 01:58 PM
In order for the market BB to be fair vol should not be managed which this looks like it is with price restricted in movement to with in the 5 P.

Its not orderly as W() has commented. Brokers in order for it to be fair should not be punting it around if they are. They may not be.

If your moving large size lots you dont have to enter a order. You can communicate the tone over the phone. The broker will then match you with the seller if you are a big enough player for them to manage the order.

Rawz
28-09-2022, 02:04 PM
In order for the market BB to be fair vol should not be managed which this looks like it is with price restricted in movement to with in the 5 P.

Its not orderly as W() has commented. Brokers in order for it to be fair should not be punting it around if they are. They may not be.

If your moving large size lots you dont have to enter a order. You can communicate the tone over the phone. The broker will then match you with the seller if you are a big enough player for them to manage the order.

okay so if vol is managed and not fair then who is it not fair for?

i sit here as a small shareholder and its looking all good to me

Waltzing
28-09-2022, 02:27 PM
If your happy your happy...

Winner() has stated his view and it may have merit.

Rawz
28-09-2022, 02:30 PM
If your happy your happy...

Winner() has stated his view and it may have merit.

Ignorance is bliss eh lol

winner69
28-09-2022, 02:47 PM
okay so if vol is managed and not fair then who is it not fair for?

i sit here as a small shareholder and its looking all good to me

Yep looking good as share price goes up

Who can complain .... I'm not

But is spending our cash this way that good .... a bit like buying less for more

LaserEyeKiwi
28-09-2022, 04:55 PM
Yes Im jumping on the bandwagon here and failing to see any harm in the Buyback effort so far.

It’s a very interesting event, seeing as the normal share volume is so small vs the buyback amount.

Only need to average a 1c a week price increase for a gigantic one year return. Obviously running far ahead of that currently.

I suspect the momo retail crowd will eventually take notice and the daily volumes will increase significantly and consequently reduce the buyback upwards pressure on the share price

LaserEyeKiwi
28-09-2022, 04:59 PM
Yep looking good as share price goes up

Who can complain .... I'm not

But is spending our cash this way that good .... a bit like buying less for more

would perhaps depend where one thinks fundamental fair value price is for the stock. Once/if that price level is significantly surpassed it might be prudent for a fundamentals based investor to lighten or exit position, rather than holding what increasingly becomes a momentum based trade.

Waltzing
28-09-2022, 05:11 PM
well LEK its probably got some more to go with a bit of luck.

LaserEyeKiwi
28-09-2022, 05:23 PM
well LEK its probably got some more to go with a bit of luck.

My greatest investment failures have been from not letting my winners run by selling too early. I don’t know what is worse - not picking winners in the first place (and thus not having the same emotional attachment), or being 100% correct on your theory and then selling way way too early. Both feel horrible, despite earning a decent return from the later.

Rawz
28-09-2022, 05:41 PM
No growth fair value is like $1.45ish imo

winner69
29-09-2022, 08:43 AM
Nearly a million shares in buyback yesterday

Irrespective of how orderly this buyback keep going hard guys ..... better to get it done and dusted by Christmas irrespective of what you have to pay .... higher the price goes i'm sure you'll find plenty of sellers

and it would save Emily a lot of paperwork every day

LaserEyeKiwi
29-09-2022, 10:16 AM
Nearly a million shares in buyback yesterday

Irrespective of how orderly this buyback keep going hard guys ..... better to get it done and dusted by Christmas irrespective of what you have to pay .... higher the price goes i'm sure you'll find plenty of sellers

and it would save Emily a lot of paperwork every day

800k on NZX (out of 852k total traded).

Waltzing
29-09-2022, 10:28 AM
comments above by investors show deep experiance and concur with said views.

Believe the buy back is however motivated by the board wanting to provide a solution to the low vol and if your issue shares to employees you need to also provide an opportunity to sell them.

A series of special DIV's would be a lot better for investors if growth continues.

Growth could provide an increase in VOL anyway.

Call into question again SBB even though some experinced investors are HAPPY...:eek2:

Rawz
29-09-2022, 10:29 AM
Nearly a million shares in buyback yesterday

Irrespective of how orderly this buyback keep going hard guys ..... better to get it done and dusted by Christmas irrespective of what you have to pay .... higher the price goes i'm sure you'll find plenty of sellers

and it would save Emily a lot of paperwork every day

they have to bid it up to get the volume. no point in selling for less than $1.50. too much upside with Canada.

Waltzing
29-09-2022, 10:33 AM
Interesting to know how many stores are raided in each country....

:scared:

must be good rocks after all or local raiders in NZ dont know what they are scooping up...

Waltzing
30-09-2022, 01:35 PM
More SP off market over 200.

Dumping....

winner69
30-09-2022, 07:42 PM
Michael Hill stop top of mind …market leader

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/shoppers-flee-as-masked-group-rob-michael-hill-jewellery-store-in-albany-mall/AILLOMFZ6X5IT2ORJ232ZL2YK4/

Habits
30-09-2022, 09:02 PM
Michael Hill stop top of mind …market leader

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/shoppers-flee-as-masked-group-rob-michael-hill-jewellery-store-in-albany-mall/AILLOMFZ6X5IT2ORJ232ZL2YK4/

371k of jewellery stolen. Or was that from the Dawsons robbery... either way it is a big haul from one heist.

I feel really sad for all those affected, including for the wayward thieves strangely

Muse
30-09-2022, 10:45 PM
371k of jewellery stolen. Or was that from the Dawsons robbery... either way it is a big haul from one heist.

I feel really sad for all those affected, including for the wayward thieves strangely

"Kevin the Security Guard" probably not willing to risk his neck for $20 an hour when a mob armed with bats arrives

percy
01-10-2022, 07:51 AM
MHJ's store design was revolutionary with its no entry door and open plan.
Maybe it's open plan has left them too open?
Perhaps Mall owners and or their insurers may require them to make their stores more secure.[as per other Jewelry stores].
The affect that would have on their business.?

Waltzing
01-10-2022, 11:28 AM
The wild wild west ...

at least it isnt always a MHJ store being raided.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/albany-mall-masked-robbery-national-mp-mark-mitchell-picked-up-panicked-relative/BFZQBYXCTX22FFRDPDH6K5FHAI/

winner69
03-10-2022, 10:37 AM
Another solid buying day on Friday after taking a day off

Bought over 2 million shares now - some 64% of volume traded

They need to do better than this else the share price won't even get to $1.50

Waltzing
03-10-2022, 12:47 PM
well Winner(*) next 12 month to 2 yeeeaaaars is a trading environment with the odd share being an investment. Its a stock pickers market and NZ has pretty much always been one.

Meta is now probably not a growth stock... had its day..mean had its decade...

Musk's optimus Prime was sub optimal and as one wag said SUB PRIME...

would you let that sub Performing robot drive you in a telsa?

defense stock might be all the rage..

smart clothing? next?

LaserEyeKiwi
03-10-2022, 01:24 PM
well Winner(*) next 12 month to 2 yeeeaaaars is a trading environment with the odd share being an investment. Its a stock pickers market and NZ has pretty much always been one.

Meta is now probably not a growth stock... had its day..mean had its decade...

Musk's optimus Prime was sub optimal and as one wag said SUB PRIME...

would you let that sub Performing robot drive you in a telsa?

defense stock might be all the rage..

smart clothing? next?

Not to turn this into a Tesla thread, but what tesla showed after less than a year of hardware development with their robot was quite remarkable (especially the self directed nature of its vision and path movement), and it is being designed as a very low cost product (~$20k). The humanoid robots from other companies are far stupider (relying on human programmed algos), cost seven figures and have sold almost zero units despite existing for decades.

Tesla already has it in rudimentary testing at some of the simple car factory assembly workstations, and will be perfecting it internally first on its own facilities before selling to others.

Like almost everything Musk does, it is ridiculed at first, then dismissed as irrelevant and/or impossible/fraudulent, before reality sets in and it completely disrupts an entire industry.

Waltzing
03-10-2022, 05:42 PM
LEK, its not going to sell looking liek that to the public as it looks like a Terminator....

anyway back to MHJ ... Winner() could be right the share price is going no where... yet...

if wrong will state so...:eek2:

LaserEyeKiwi
03-10-2022, 06:34 PM
LEK, its not going to sell looking liek that to the public as it looks like a Terminator....

anyway back to MHJ ... Winner() could be right the share price is going no where... yet...

if wrong will state so...:eek2:

which one are you talking about? The one that walked was the first prototype (it had no casing and looked freaky as hell) - but the 2nd one on stage is closer to the production version and looked much sleeker.

==========

MHJ Strong today in a bad market environment - no doubt thanks to buyback activity.

MHJ was 1.16 before earnings release and buyback announcement. Since then it has climbed to 1.34 and paid a 4c dividend.

In that same timeframe NZX50 has fallen from 11608 -> 10959.

winner69
04-10-2022, 08:18 AM
which one are you talking about? The one that walked was the first prototype (it had no casing and looked freaky as hell) - but the 2nd one on stage is closer to the production version and looked much sleeker.

==========

MHJ Strong today in a bad market environment - no doubt thanks to buyback activity.

MHJ was 1.16 before earnings release and buyback announcement. Since then it has climbed to 1.34 and paid a 4c dividend.

In that same timeframe NZX50 has fallen from 11608 -> 10959.

I see it s -

MHJ was 1.16 before earnings release and buyback announcement. Share price rose to 1.32 because the results were good and fell back to 126 (ex dividend and market sentiment) before the buyback commenced. Since the buyback commenced it has climbed to 1.34 .

In that same timeframe NZX50 has fallen from 11608 -> 10959

Thank goodness the company has bought so many shares .... share price might be sub 120 if they haven't

Rawz
04-10-2022, 08:29 AM
My share of earnings is growing each day- excellent!

winner69
04-10-2022, 08:42 AM
My share of earnings is growing each day- excellent!

Sure is

Wish they'd speed up the buying while there are still sellers around

Waltzing
04-10-2022, 10:19 AM
The FED is not stopping till it breaks the market and yes the SP has gone up relative to the current dip in the market.

Here is the new sale team for MHJ .... cripe looks perfect for raiding a store in a mall.... it the same unit in the car...

remember the green mask is dumb he bought twitter.... he might have a bot ready to run twitter in a few years ... it could work ... but not yet and save his latest stupid investment.

it can do more ... water the flowers... but did the flowers need watering and when do they need watering again...

oh that diamond looks good on you YES! its a sale...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gm6dZ1q06ks


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/30/elon-musk-shows-off-humanoid-robot-prototype-at-tesla-ai-day.html

they found that humans were better on the factory floor... never going to make it to the Mall counter this decade or next...

LaserEyeKiwi
04-10-2022, 12:21 PM
The FED is not stopping till it breaks the market and yes the SP has gone up relative to the current dip in the market.

Here is the new sale team for MHJ .... cripe looks perfect for raiding a store in a mall.... it the same unit in the car...

remember the green mask is dumb he bought twitter.... he might have a bot ready to run twitter in a few years ... it could work ... but not yet and save his latest stupid investment.

it can do more ... water the flowers... but did the flowers need watering and when do they need watering again...

oh that diamond looks good on you YES! its a sale...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gm6dZ1q06ks


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/30/elon-musk-shows-off-humanoid-robot-prototype-at-tesla-ai-day.html

they found that humans were better on the factory floor... never going to make it to the Mall counter this decade or next...

will agree to disagree on the “green mask” - though i agree he is often an outright buffoon/idiot on anything not relating to his area of expertise (politics/pandemics etc). Their biggest breakthrough in manufacturing was not from there original plan in 2016 to robotize most of their production lines (taking the Toyota approach to the extreme) - which failed and they ended up having to use humans then - but was instead the much bigger leap of using one massive machine to eliminate hundreds of parts and associated production steps and the hundreds of robots/humans needed for that (the “GigaCastings”). I would take a gentleman’s wager that we see Tesla humanoid robots in many workplaces / homes before decade end.

==========

With regards to MHJ - how soon before we have to see disclosures from any management or major shareholders selling down? I don’t recall seeing any yet despite the large block sales.

Waltzing
04-10-2022, 01:18 PM
LEK check M's latest move ... make the south part of UGLY BEAR forest....

remember the movie

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Aviator_(2004_film)

Waltzing
04-10-2022, 01:21 PM
LEK off topic... and im not supposed to talk about in public....

the test break through is a computer language machine that replaces a software language as the system uses universial parts to act as replaceable language components...

your talking the choir here...

Waltzing
04-10-2022, 01:24 PM
from the LEK report....

"With regards to MHJ - how soon before we have to see disclosures from any management or major shareholders selling down? I don’t recall seeing any yet despite the large block sales."

EXACTLY!!!!!!!

well said ....and what have feared all along becuase if thet dumping at this price its probably a good idea to join them...

Its all perfect london lies....

Waltzing
04-10-2022, 09:07 PM
lots of orders every day every increasing numbers ....

doubt there will be any DISC since those selling have a lot to unload....

better off checking the register later on.

winner69
05-10-2022, 09:50 AM
Part of me says I should ask NZ RegCo to review the buyback to ascertain whether it is being done in a such a way to ensure an orderly market

But then the other parts say let it run and hope that they get even more enthusiastic and buy up really big and push the share price much higher

Rawz
05-10-2022, 09:57 AM
Part of me says I should ask NZ RegCo to review the buyback to ascertain whether it is being done in a such a way to ensure an orderly market

But then the other parts say let it run and hope that they get even more enthusiastic and buy up really big and push the share price much higher

Don't rock the boat. Just sit back and enjoy

winner69
05-10-2022, 10:03 AM
Don't rock the boat. Just sit back and enjoy

That's the way to go ....got to maximise opportunities

Maybe close to $2 by Christmas lol .... when they need to attract more sellers

Waltzing
05-10-2022, 10:12 AM
"boat rocking"

we are constantly monitoring boat rocking as its a 3 D model.

we have some new projects coming with the IOT computer langauge for big data modelling of boat rocking coming along nicely...

and if the projects are successfuly we expect to become big when it comes to boat rockers across the world...

2 dollars? if Winner(Portfolio.MHJ.QTYONHAND->Stockonhand - NZX.MHJ.TreasureStockonHand()) , well your a genius....

in fact many two oar boat rowers think they are in 2 D but in fact they have no idea they are rocking the boat and losing energy with every rocking motion.

Waltzing
05-10-2022, 10:20 AM
Look like the sellling is almost heading towards a rush to the exists..

Rawz
05-10-2022, 10:32 AM
For the last two years ROE is 20%+ this should be $2

Everyone knows MHJ is undervalued. They need to buy as many shares now while it is so dirt cheap.

Its not going to be as beneficial for us shareholders when they are buying at $1.50 at the end of the year

Waltzing
05-10-2022, 01:40 PM
Come on MHJ tell us the real reason the directors wanted a SBB .....

If a DIV was increased the share price would rise with it... that is if they could continue the payout ....

One store hit 3 times?

Retail safety in NZ now a crisis surely for the government ....

The south pacific wild west ... the New south pacific wild east...

Rawz
05-10-2022, 01:52 PM
Come on MHJ tell us the real reason the directors wanted a SBB .....

If a DIV was increased the share price would rise with it... that is if they could continue the payout ....

One store hit 3 times?

Retail safety in NZ now a crisis surely for the government ....

The south pacific wild west ... the New south pacific wild east...

Share buybacks when stocks are undervalued is good capital management.

Waltzing
05-10-2022, 02:02 PM
Is MHJ undervalued ...

time will tell if canada grows but right now MHJ stores in NZ now need a risk rating attached to them....

Dont agree that SBB are good capital managment but instead the under valued means the markets dont believe the story and way to change that is through performance.

The discount the market offers is for a reason and managements buy back is actually a failure of the company to convince the market.

This BB is at the moment a failure of management..

Rawz
05-10-2022, 02:13 PM
The market has always had questions about MHJ. All 2020, 2021, it's like people couldnt believe the quarterly updates. I was banging on for a long time on this thread saying how cheap it was. Maybe not so cheap now.. but still cheap. During this period the company turned around the balance sheet from $24m in debt to $100m in cash.

so what did you want them to do with the cash? Acquisition? Special div?

Personally i think regular dividends + buyback is best if the SP is under $1.50.

I dont see how this is any failure of management. they have done an outstanding job over the last couple of years to get us to this position.

Waltzing
05-10-2022, 02:17 PM
If a company can continue to execute its sales and customers are happy campers then dividends should be paid as a reflection of the sale performance if there is little to no debt on the balance sheet.

The share price will likely rise as a reflection of that performance.

That is if market yields not out pace the ES.

The problem is that if the ES falls the shareholder who is still holding may well feel they have been cheated if the SP drops on ES and goes into decline.

If management are confident no BB is required but BB is actually an admission they want their money now and hence we see the off market action and retail sellers also lining up..

Hopefully the BB over takes the seller at some point.

Rawz
05-10-2022, 02:37 PM
You still not saying what the alternative is. Special dividend or acquisition?

they have too much cash. they need to do something with it. they are already paying regular dividends.

they choose buyback. im happy with it. people can sell a portion of their holdings if they want cash. if you're worried management are dumping into the buyback just sell today at $1.34.

Lol you and Winner have a big issue with this eh. I personally dont see what it is. but then you guys probably know a bit more than me

Also what does ES stand for?

Waltzing
05-10-2022, 02:57 PM
The cash on the balance sheet is retain earnings.

Its yours and would give you the voting option.

You never got the voting option.

Would have given you the vote on that one...

Increase, DIV, Specials or reinvest in the industry which doesnt mean a specific part of the industry and infrasture.

Waltzing
05-10-2022, 03:01 PM
those 100's are likely the same seller or aggreated orders.

Rawz
05-10-2022, 03:33 PM
The cash on the balance sheet is retain earnings.

Its yours and would give you the voting option.

You never got the voting option.

Would have given you the vote on that one...

Increase, DIV, Specials or reinvest in the industry which doesnt mean a specific part of the industry and infrasture.






soooo whats the best option in your mind? i know the options..

Waltzing
05-10-2022, 03:41 PM
The best option but one that managment in most companies dont want to do when cash is full in retained earnings and no debt is best practise might be to go to the owners. YOU!

and let YOU be the judge.

The best option is a non binding VOTE.

Waltzing
05-10-2022, 03:43 PM
another SP over 300 script...

hear the hoot n holler across the trading floor...

would love to know from who...

its looking a rig a dig dig....

Waltzing
05-10-2022, 03:46 PM
one hopes the retail is right...

the retail is at the table...

turn it up , hear the - hoot n holler -

14221

Rawz
05-10-2022, 04:08 PM
The best option but one that managment in most companies dont want to do when cash is full in retained earnings and no debt is best practise might be to go to the owners. YOU!

and let YOU be the judge.

The best option is a non binding VOTE.

Its honestly easier getting a straight answer out of my 5 year old than you...

Rawz votes for buyback.

Waltz votes...? he doesnt know. He's like a politician. lets get a committee in to review all the options and comeback to us with a bunch of positives and negatives on each option. then we can discuss it further and put out a report for voters to provide feedback on. then back to the committee to review. once done its then FY24 and the cash pile is now $150m and still no answer.

Waltzing
05-10-2022, 04:48 PM
Increasing the DIV will increase the SP..

Simple . We have stated it many times here.

ergo - there is your answer. Its implied and obvious.

some very sizable off markets trades.. wont take long to end the BB at that rate.

Habits
05-10-2022, 09:41 PM
Hurstmere Rd Takapnua branch hit last night. Oh boy

We used to talk about smash hits but that was a different kind.

Waltzing
05-10-2022, 10:21 PM
Trashed shop... photos in the press ...

maybe thats the reason share are being dumped 400 G at a time...


consumer holding though...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130080090/consumers-not-so-gloomy-spending-inches-up

MauroNZ
06-10-2022, 10:04 AM
For the last two years ROE is 20%+ this should be $2

Everyone knows MHJ is undervalued. They need to buy as many shares now while it is so dirt cheap.

Its not going to be as beneficial for us shareholders when they are buying at $1.50 at the end of the year

Hey Rawz, I'm not sure I've just have had a look at the historic prices on Yahoo finances and ath was the 11/09/2016 at $1.77. Okay that's within the NZX, but I guess not that far within the ASX.

You're probably right just what I've seen since say 2013 for instance if we look at the retail sector HLG has had periods where went from $3 to $7 (okay we can argue that people need clothes and not jewellery) but still IMHO like happened with WHS (which I sold at a loss) has a very slow move on the price unless there's one-off like covid or similar.

I'm happy to read something different to my opinion because I'm not an expert and I don't have time to become one. However I try to read with an open mind every single post here.

LaserEyeKiwi
06-10-2022, 10:15 AM
Increasing the DIV will increase the SP..

Simple . We have stated it many times here.

ergo - there is your answer. Its implied and obvious.

some very sizable off markets trades.. wont take long to end the BB at that rate.

Eliminating a large amount of excess cash via increasing the regular dividend payment would be very unusual and would be obviously unsustainable once the cash pile is drawn down, so I don’t think the market would reward that strategy with a higher share price at all. If anything the share price would be punished and management trashed for choosing the worst of 3 possible ways to return excess cash to shareholders.

Since MHJ is already paying out a high ratio of net income as a regular dividend, then the two ways to return the large amount of excess capital to shareholders is either via a buyback or via a one off special dividend. MHJ chose the buyback route.

If there are actually large shareholders exiting or reducing positions - then better for the buyback to be in operation than the alternative (share price dumping as there would be no demand for the large amount of shares being sold).

Rawz
06-10-2022, 10:41 AM
Eliminating a large amount of excess cash via increasing the regular dividend payment would be very unusual and would be obviously unsustainable once the cash pile is drawn down, so I don’t think the market would reward that strategy with a higher share price at all. If anything the share price would be punished and management trashed for choosing the worst of 3 possible ways to return excess cash to shareholders.

Since MHJ is already paying out a high ratio of net income as a regular dividend, then the two ways to return the large amount of excess capital to shareholders is either via a buyback or via a one off special dividend. MHJ chose the buyback route.

If there are actually large shareholders exiting or reducing positions - then better for the buyback to be in operation than the alternative (share price dumping as there would be no demand for the large amount of shares being sold).

Exactly…..

Waltzing
06-10-2022, 12:42 PM
how can it possible be paying out a large ratio of retained income...

that doesnt make sense ...

the balance sheet would be out of balance otherwise and a single sided journal entry would be required to bring it back into balance.

That doesnt work... oh dear..

it all looks to be being managed behind the scenes by a master player...

LaserEyeKiwi
07-10-2022, 10:28 AM
Weekly buyback update:

14226

winner69
07-10-2022, 11:12 AM
Weekly buyback update:

Shares Repurchased so far (14 trading days): 2,166,456
Average repurchased per day: 154,747

Currently running at twice the required average buyback pace to complete the planned buyback within 12 months (77.6k per day)

I reckon they've bought back 5,149,561 1 shares

LaserEyeKiwi
07-10-2022, 01:35 PM
I reckon they've bought back 4,789,561 shares - average 335,238

whoops was using the ASX total. Have popped a far better tracking table in above.

5,149,561 @ 396,120 per day

Over five items faster than required. At this rate it might be finished by year end.

Rawz
07-10-2022, 01:40 PM
gosh the daily numbers are all over the place. very unorderly

winner69
08-10-2022, 12:12 PM
Jeez a down day yesterday …..in spite of them buying 100k of 131k on both NZX and ASX

Need to do better than that to keep the price going up

Waltzing
08-10-2022, 02:27 PM
Oh its very orderly if your the brokers... :t_up::t_up::t_up:

Oh yes its the BB of the century ... its the BB when your not having a BB...

Its UP and DOWN.... get with the BEAT ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlv672jqbtE

Waltzing
08-10-2022, 02:46 PM
Oh its very orderly if your the brokers...

its going swimmingly ...

like this swimmingly...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Te3_VlimRw0

Sharks baby... coming to get you.....

Just how did we ***K this up so bad....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtFyP0qy9XU

Hear the Hoot N Holler ...

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VV7nE4BrzRw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QB234mWLH2o)

be first ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ag14Ao_xO4c

winner69
09-10-2022, 09:55 AM
Seeing MHJ shareprice possibly being supported by the buyback I thought I had better have a closer look at the F22 peformance to get a better grip on what a realistic value is.

One issue with MHJ reports is that they tend to embellish the narrative, to the extent that no matter what the result is its aways very good or solid. Suppose you'd expect jewellers to put a shine and sparkle on things so don't blame them.

I've had a look at their segment reporting for F22 - ie Australia, NZ and Canada along with Corporate (whatever that includes but assume to be a lot of central costs etc)

My view of performance in table below - like how they improved EBIT by $6.564m (using the real numbers and none of this Comparable rubbish)

Australia

Sales were down 2.8%. Plenty of excuses/reasons for the decline but ABS retail data for the sector that jewellery is included in was up 12% in year to June. MHJ not that flash?

That sales decline impacted Gross Profit by $5.4m but the impressive increase in %age margin had a favourable $11.2m impact. Gross Profit overall increased by $5.8m

Expenses increased by $16.9m (13%) which means Australia EBIT was $11.1m lower

Autralia summary: Great margin % increase but more than offset by disappointing sales and much higher expenses saw lower profits in F22. Looking forward hard to see F23 sales growing much and can that record GM% be maintained? Expenses cant afford to go much higher. F23 outlook is possible flat or lower profit

New Zealand

Sales were 0.9% lower than pcp which probably is much in line how sector performed. the lower sales had an impact of $0.7m but higher GM% had an $1.8m impacted resulting in Gross Profit being up $1.1m

Like Australia expenses seemed to be an issue being $5.9m (15%) higher. This meant NZ EBIT was $4.7m lower than F21

So NZ sales basically flat but improved margins and much higher expenses. Looking forward hard to see much sales grwoth so margins and expense management important to maintain current levels of profitability.

Canada

Sales up 40.4% which generated $30.7m of additional GM and improved margins contributed another $6.2m which resulted in Gross Profit being $36.9m higher than F21.

Expenses were $18.6m (31%) higher so F22 EBIT ended up $18.4m higher than pcp.

Looking forward I see continued sales growth and margins being maintained and hopefully expenses not growing as fast as they did in F22. Over expect to see higher EBIT in F23

Corporate

Whatever this covers they contributed $4.0m to the higher F22 EBIT. Significant becasue thats 61% on the total increase.

It does seem a shame that $44m more Gross Profit only generated by the three countries only resulted in $2.5m extra EBIT - impact of all those additional expenses (exc Corporate)


So that's how I see last years performance. Future all depends on Canada and hoping Australia and NZ don't do too much damage

Pity they have ceased quarterly reporting as have to wait until January to hear how things are going

winner69
09-10-2022, 09:59 AM
In Rawz lingo previous post is (sorry mate)

Australia - sell less and make heaps less
NZ - sell a bit less and make heaps less
Canada - sell heaps more and make quite a bit more

Net result of these three is sell quiet a bit more and make slightly more profit

Rawz
09-10-2022, 10:51 AM
Good stuff W69. I like your post. You started it with trying to get a realistic valuation, what did you come up with?

Dont suppose you have any inkling into how the corporate welfare impacted FY21 EBIT. Like FY22 GP up but EBIT down because of out of control expenses and poor management??? Or??

winner69
09-10-2022, 04:03 PM
Good stuff W69. I like your post. You started it with trying to get a realistic valuation, what did you come up with?

Dont suppose you have any inkling into how the corporate welfare impacted FY21 EBIT. Like FY22 GP up but EBIT down because of out of control expenses and poor management??? Or??

There was $12m less covid grants in F22 than F21 which accounts for some of the increase in expenses

I'm trying to estimate what expenses look like as they return to normal .... haven't come up with a value yet

One thing its cool to see a lot of the $40m corporate welfare they got over covid (was it all really needed?) being put to good use bybuying their own shares back -- one way of transferring government money to shareholders.

Rawz
09-10-2022, 04:15 PM
Its so hard reading the MHJ report. Constant restating, comparable this and that. Seems whenever a new report comes out i must update my historic numbers in my spreadsheet. whats the point, probably change next year. so annoying. dont know what to believe.

Anways LEK posted an article the other day that said its better to compare FY22 to FY19.
This is because FY21 had the covid retail boom and FY20 was a write off.

So the performance from FY19 TO FY22 in same currency looks like this:

Australia
Revenue= -2% decline
GP = 2.5% growth
EBIT= 59% growth

'Sell less make lots more'

New Zealand
Revenue= 4.2% growth
GP= 8.6% growth
EBIT= 25% growth

'Sell bugger all more make a decent amount more'

Canada
Revenue= 20%
GP= 28%
EBIT= 194%

'Sell heaps more make heaps more'

The sales performance is meek in Aus and NZ however that was all part of their strategy. Sell less but do more. Close brick and mortar stores and move more to online. Drop the gimmicky sales and focus on margins. Job done.
Aus and NZ now need to grow in line with GPD and spit out cash.

Canada wow what growth! This is the growth engine of MHJ and can double in size to match the size of Aus. Plenty of room until Canada MHJ is mature in nature like its Aus and NZ counterparts.

EBIT FY22 vs FY21

Statutory (group)
FY22 $73,236m UP 9.8% from FY21 $66,672m

Comparable (group)
FY22 $62,869m UP 11.1% from FY21 $56,592m

So overall the EBIT pcp growth is fine. Just relax folks. Canada has this. There is a buyback, yes it maybe supporting the SP, there is no debt, they are still looking at bolt on acquisitions. there is a lot to like and i see no reason to be selling the couple of shares i hold. And while holding ill collect a nice dividend of 50-75% of profits.

Waltzing
09-10-2022, 07:46 PM
Winner , Grinner ......

:cool:

"Better to be first ..."

Its a classic Managed BB.....

And the retail investor isnt invited until the deal is done...

LaserEyeKiwi
09-10-2022, 09:34 PM
Seeing MHJ shareprice possibly being supported by the buyback I thought I had better have a closer look at the F22 peformance to get a better grip on what a realistic value is.

One issue with MHJ reports is that they tend to embellish the narrative, to the extent that no matter what the result is its aways very good or solid. Suppose you'd expect jewellers to put a shine and sparkle on things so don't blame them.

I've had a look at their segment reporting for F22 - ie Australia, NZ and Canada along with Corporate (whatever that includes but assume to be a lot of central costs etc)

My view of performance in table below - like how they improved EBIT by $6.564m (using the real numbers and none of this Comparable rubbish)

Australia

Sales were down 2.8%. Plenty of excuses/reasons for the decline but ABS retail data for the sector that jewellery is included in was up 12% in year to June. MHJ not that flash?

That sales decline impacted Gross Profit by $5.4m but the impressive increase in %age margin had a favourable $11.2m impact. Gross Profit overall increased by $5.8m

Expenses increased by $16.9m (13%) which means Australia EBIT was $11.1m lower

Autralia summary: Great margin % increase but more than offset by disappointing sales and much higher expenses saw lower profits in F22. Looking forward hard to see F23 sales growing much and can that record GM% be maintained? Expenses cant afford to go much higher. F23 outlook is possible flat or lower profit

New Zealand

Sales were 0.9% lower than pcp which probably is much in line how sector performed. the lower sales had an impact of $0.7m but higher GM% had an $1.8m impacted resulting in Gross Profit being up $1.1m

Like Australia expenses seemed to be an issue being $5.9m (15%) higher. This meant NZ EBIT was $4.7m lower than F21

So NZ sales basically flat but improved margins and much higher expenses. Looking forward hard to see much sales grwoth so margins and expense management important to maintain current levels of profitability.

Canada

Sales up 40.4% which generated $30.7m of additional GM and improved margins contributed another $6.2m which resulted in Gross Profit being $36.9m higher than F21.

Expenses were $18.6m (31%) higher so F22 EBIT ended up $18.4m higher than pcp.

Looking forward I see continued sales growth and margins being maintained and hopefully expenses not growing as fast as they did in F22. Over expect to see higher EBIT in F23

Corporate

Whatever this covers they contributed $4.0m to the higher F22 EBIT. Significant becasue thats 61% on the total increase.

It does seem a shame that $44m more Gross Profit only generated by the three countries only resulted in $2.5m extra EBIT - impact of all those additional expenses (exc Corporate)


So that's how I see last years performance. Future all depends on Canada and hoping Australia and NZ don't do too much damage

Pity they have ceased quarterly reporting as have to wait until January to hear how things are going

10,000+ lost trading days due to covid closures in past year, the equivalent of 1 entire month of store closures company wide, provides a large backwind for current year growth (assuming we dont see the same again fingers crossed).

Australia / corporate includes Jewellery making for the entire global operation right? So increasing sales (eg Canada) would possibly lead to some increase in expenses in Australia. Not sure, just speculating on the setup there.

Waltzing
10-10-2022, 10:25 AM
Sold there them shares !!!!

Round em up ....

Bib them YUUUUPPP

Sell hem down!!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_VbwZsYPwY

LaserEyeKiwi
10-10-2022, 02:31 PM
Slow day - no buyback activity yet. Cant complain at the flat share price when the market is down 1.5% I suppose.

Waltzing
10-10-2022, 03:43 PM
Its under valued!!!!!


:t_up:


go on buy some!!!

Buy the DIIIIPPPP!

:eek2:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFGEkTyrQaM

LaserEyeKiwi
10-10-2022, 05:45 PM
A bit bizarre they didn’t buyback any today (at least on the NZX) - total volume was only 15k shares.

Waltzing
10-10-2022, 07:03 PM
Nothing but a managed BB....

they will be waiting for the next blocks to be feed in...

it may turn out that the retail investor isnt invited to this party becuase it not your party... its their party....

and the retail investor will get thrown a bone later on....


Margain Call.... hands on the scale...

In this case its the reverse ...

winner69
10-10-2022, 07:44 PM
Another 92k bought back today - on both markets but basically all on ASX …stopped price falling eh?

winner69
11-10-2022, 08:08 AM
Its so hard reading the MHJ report. Constant restating, comparable this and that. Seems whenever a new report comes out i must update my historic numbers in my spreadsheet. whats the point, probably change next year. so annoying. dont know what to believe.

Yep constant restating, many different profit numbers etc along with the embellished reports all done to make things all bright and shining …..and often to hide the underbelly

Doing away with quarterly reporting is a red flag for me (at least we won’t have to put up with them proudly announcing another consecutive record quarter for comparable same store sales ….when sales actually went backwards)

I reckon their next trick to be obfuscate will be a change of balance date

Waltzing
11-10-2022, 08:43 AM
Winner(), how could you suggest such things!!!!

:scared:

go on listen to them...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpYEJx7PkWE

Rawz
11-10-2022, 08:59 AM
Yep constant restating, many different profit numbers etc along with the embellished reports all done to make things all bright and shining …..and often to hide the underbelly

Doing away with quarterly reporting is a red flag for me (at least we won’t have to put up with them proudly announcing another consecutive record quarter for comparable same store sales ….when sales actually went backwards)

I reckon their next trick to be obfuscate will be a change of balance date
Hey Winner, when you record a number to your record books do you enter in the statutory EBIT or NPAT with a note or do you run with the company’s adjusted number? Or a bit of both?

winner69
11-10-2022, 09:36 AM
Hey Winner, when you record a number to your record books do you enter in the statutory EBIT or NPAT with a note or do you run with the company’s adjusted number? Or a bit of both?

I prefer to use the NPBT and NPAT numbers in the statutory accounts

I've reworked that segment EBIT analysis I did the other day to make it NPBT instead of EBIT

If they restate previous years numbers I restate mine as well. Does upset trends as the cause of the restating usually applies to prior years as well but never mind.

That's why I often resort to using Cash Flow to see what's going on over time....... like H222 Operating Cash Flow was negative if you back out the $14m they got for the Canada book debtors sale.

Hard to forecast F23 but I'll run with a NPAT of $45m to $50m at the moment -- but if you believe that rubbish about zillions of days of closed stores it could get to $65m

Waltzing
11-10-2022, 09:42 AM
Winner() is there an option in the maths for reflecting the increase of online sales through those event variances for closed or Force majeure..

closed store days would need to be stated with an increase+- in online sales to get an idea of sales going forward with out majeure.

winner69
11-10-2022, 09:55 AM
Winner() is there an option in the maths for reflecting the increase of online sales through those event variances for closed or Force majeure..

closed store days would need to be stated with an increase+- in online sales to get an idea of sales going forward with out majeure.

Only they would know -- looking at daily sales rates

Also how do you account for the pendant not bought yeaterday because store closed but bought today when store opened?

Interesting HLH sales are up heaps from pre-covid but store sales are basically flat -- does online pick up lost store sales?

Rawz
11-10-2022, 10:38 AM
Lost store days probably just missing the walk by sales. Which are likely the small items.
Most lost store days transferred online if i was to have a guess.

Waltzing
11-10-2022, 11:02 AM
Ok another 100 on the fed funds rate coming....

its a sell or rather a trade as it will probably retest 100 at some point in the next few years...

since we are stuck in NZ might as well all go to the beach....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=402_IqgyaCo

LaserEyeKiwi
11-10-2022, 11:14 AM
Lost store days probably just missing the walk by sales. Which are likely the small items.
Most lost store days transferred online if i was to have a guess.

Online sales were only 7% of MHJ revenue in the last year, and that is with stores being closed for the equivalent of one month.

“Likely the small items” Tell that to my wife! Ha ha. She has happily spent the equivalent of all my MHJ dividends this year on impulse buys at MHJ on mall outings.

I think for most people if you are spending upwards of $500 or $1000+ on a piece of jewelry, you want to see it in person, check it fits etc. I am also just guessing here, but I would say the situation is probably the opposite to what you guess, and in store ASP is likely much higher than online, especially when you account for the warranty upselling they attempt to do in store on every purchase.

LaserEyeKiwi
11-10-2022, 11:38 AM
Stats NZ Sep retail report just out: card spending up 33% year on year.

Amazing what a difference non-essential retail shops actually being open will do for year on year comparisons.

Waltzing
11-10-2022, 11:41 AM
well another jewel from the LEK report....

actual first hand news from the shopping front...

wont get a retest of 100 then?

damn... love those deep retest for retail trading... some stocks are trades others are long holds... till they arnt...

anyway if its long hot summer then its surfing and buy some new wet suits and rip curl tops...

LaserEyeKiwi
11-10-2022, 11:55 AM
well another jewel from the LEK report....

actual first hand news from the shopping front...

wont get a retest of 100 then?

damn... love those deep retest for retail trading... some stocks are trades others are long holds... till they arnt...

anyway if its long hot summer then its surfing and buy some new wet suits and rip curl tops...

whose to say? One little Russian nuke and/or one little covid mutation could really carve a massive dent in ones portfolio.

winner69
11-10-2022, 11:55 AM
Stats NZ Sep retail report just out: card spending up 33% year on year.

Amazing what a difference non-essential retail shops actually being open will do for year on year comparisons.

...and the sector Michael Hill in up 29% on last year ...apparel up 97% ... need a pendant to go with that new top?

winner69
11-10-2022, 12:06 PM
Stats NZ Sep retail report just out: card spending up 33% year on year.

Amazing what a difference non-essential retail shops actually being open will do for year on year comparisons.

and 16% higher than Sept 2019

Waltzing
11-10-2022, 12:17 PM
2024-025 after a land slide change of government with massive tax cuts and floating of government departments on the stock market...

the ZZZNX could have a massive year in 2026 and you will all get rich...

retail will explode in NZ on a scale never seen before and farmers will be popping champagne and wine companies will refloat from the top of the south...

NZX will have one of it most sucessfull yeers...

Buy in the next 12 months ...

no recession coming with record tax take and the population will want it back in tax cuts or higher wages....

it all gone south for the GV and you investors will be the winners() ****** --->>>> crap old forum technology no exploding staars...

LaserEyeKiwi
11-10-2022, 12:33 PM
“Spherical Asset management” increases its holdings to 14.1% from 13.1%

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/400333/380907.pdf

Lots of buying and selling orders by the parties it invests on behalf of by the looks of it. Citibank being the largest client by a wide margin.

14237

Muse
11-10-2022, 12:51 PM
“Spherical Asset management” increases its holdings to 14.1% from 13.1%

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/400333/380907.pdf

Lots of buying and selling orders by the parties it invests on behalf of by the looks of it. Citibank being the largest client by a wide margin.

14237

lots of buying & selling, but nett buying

all those 'registered holders' are for what its worth the custodians for spheria - not the underlying client. BNP, citi, JP morgan, northern trust, nab - its a whose who of the global custodians active in australia.

Waltzing
11-10-2022, 03:44 PM
Any distruptions in european bond markets in the next few months could bring buying OPPO's for stock on the NZX and AUS markets including retail stocks...

Some have already posted articles on how nervous some desks are becoming in europe.

Getty
12-10-2022, 09:17 AM
MHJ are installing fog cannons as a deterrent to raiders.

Be bold, install a different type of cannon!

winner69
12-10-2022, 01:15 PM
Closing Takapuna store for a while

They'll need to continue to count lost days eh so they can up with a meaningless same store comparable sales number

Add a bit of colour to sales updates

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/300710759/michael-hill-store-in-takapuna-closes-after-constant-attacks-by-thieves

winner69
12-10-2022, 01:44 PM
Quite likely Takapuna was a loss making / margin store anyway and they'll be able to pressure the landlord to get out of the lease

Waltzing
12-10-2022, 02:06 PM
If the BB failed to lift the price and the DIV stays the same maybe someone has some cheap stones we can buy at auction...

Waltzing
14-10-2022, 12:37 PM
retail stocks in NZ just arnt in fashion ....

winner69
17-10-2022, 12:49 PM
See NZSA going to vote against Gary Smith’s re-election as a Director

Basically been around too long (they didn’t say on the gravy chain lol) but did note that the company performed less strongly than now over much of the period spanning Gary Smith’s tenure.

Waltzing
17-10-2022, 01:37 PM
Who's been selling .... what, where...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTcRRaXV-fg

LaserEyeKiwi
17-10-2022, 01:54 PM
Buyback update:

Settled into a 100k per day buyback pattern last week

14251

Rawz
17-10-2022, 02:08 PM
Its starting to look very orderly now

Waltzing
17-10-2022, 03:00 PM
Heres to you ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oday_Fc-Gc

Waltzing
21-10-2022, 05:18 PM
The BB is forming a base and its about to rip......

percy
21-10-2022, 07:25 PM
The BB is forming a base and its about to rip......

Up or down.?

Waltzing
21-10-2022, 10:15 PM
Mr P ...comments

"Up or down.?"

Good Question......

winner69
25-10-2022, 12:38 PM
Hey waltz - do you think they have realised they have overpaid for the zillions of shares they've already bought

No waiting for something like your $1 a share .... or willyou beat them to it at $1.05

It was so good when sahre price was in the mid $1.30's ....not so good today

Waltzing
25-10-2022, 01:24 PM
w() will answer on the other site... less chaff...

unless the other site closes down..

these sites cost money to run.

winner69
25-10-2022, 02:34 PM
OMG - things going fantastically at MHJ

From ASM Pleasingly, the business has delivered strong early performance for the first 16 weeks of FY23,
with Group all store sales up 27.5% against FY22.

As this period in FY22 was impacted by store closures in Australia and New Zealand, a more
meaningful reflection of the FY23 performance is that we have increased sales by 15.8% against
the same period in FY21, even with 8 less stores

....and margins remain high

LaserEyeKiwi
25-10-2022, 02:37 PM
Yes, all guns blazing!

Revenue up on any measure one cares to use, and Gross Margin remains elevated.


And now moving on to our current trading update.

Pleasingly, the business has delivered strong early performance for the first 16 weeks of FY23, with Group all store sales up 27.5% against FY22.

As this period in FY22 was impacted by store closures in Australia and New Zealand, a more meaningful reflection of the FY23 performance is that we have increased sales by 15.8% against the same period in FY21, even with 8 less stores.

In addition, gross margin has also remained strong, in line with FY22 and significantly up on FY21.

These results demonstrate the continuing momentum in the business and an improvement on the results previously announced for the first eight weeks of the financial year.

winner69
25-10-2022, 02:38 PM
Hey Rawz - no more talk of transformation (making more with less etc etc) --- they've pivoted (their words) from transformation to growth, the opportunity to stretch the brand into new territories and services is a key focus

Its all about growth now

LaserEyeKiwi
25-10-2022, 02:43 PM
So there was no buyback on a few days last week - is that correct?

winner69
25-10-2022, 02:46 PM
Hey LEK .... your 'continuing momentum' is an understatement

It is 'accelerating momentum'

first eight weeks of FY23 Group all store sales up 18.5% against FY22.... and now after 16 weeks they are up 27.5%

Jeez the last 8 weeks must have seen phenomenal increase

WOW

LaserEyeKiwi
25-10-2022, 02:54 PM
Im just wondering if they were in some sort of buyback blackout period the last few treading days, due to this trading update being given today.

Rawz
25-10-2022, 02:59 PM
They should of bought more in the BB. Old Waltz probably a bit glum having sold off 3 portfolios worth @$1.30

winner69
25-10-2022, 02:59 PM
Im just wondering if they were in some sort of buyback blackout period the last few treading days, due to this trading update being given today.

Probably were .... wouldn't looked too good if they weren't

winner69
25-10-2022, 03:05 PM
Quick sums using what I would say were some pretty robust assumptions I's say that those increased sales over pcp were about $38m generating about $24m Gross Margin ---- say with a biy=t more in way of expenses about $18m more NPBT than same period last year

That's some increase

Love this we have have pivoted to growth

Rawz
25-10-2022, 03:12 PM
Quick sums using what I would say were some pretty robust assumptions I's say that those increased sales over pcp were about $38m generating about $24m Gross Margin ---- say with a biy=t more in way of expenses about $18m more NPBT than same period last year

That's some increase

Love this we have have pivoted to growth

What sort of multiple does a growth stock deserve? 15?

What is going on? Are they going to do $65m npat FY23? SP could go to $2.60

Waltzing
25-10-2022, 05:36 PM
The market LOV's to hate this stock... trade it...

FADE IT... and buy again when the market dumps on it....

winner69
26-10-2022, 09:50 AM
Yesterday's update that sales were up 27.5% was fantastic news

But looking at what HLG, Lovisa and Premier have done in much the same periods that 27.5% pale into insignificance

Not doing as well as they could have?


Even Restaurant Brands beats it

some comparisons -

MHJ 16 weeeks (July/Aug/Sep/Oct) +27.5%
HLG 8 weeks (Aug/Sep) +68.49%
LOV 7 weeks (July/Aug) +66.1%
BRG - August sales more than 60% up on pcp (Aug/Sep/Oct sales report out soon)
PVT (Premier) - 7 weeks (Aug/Sep) +46.7%
RBD 3 months (July/Aug/Sept) +32.3%

Rawz
26-10-2022, 10:08 AM
Good stuff W69. Have these been adjusted for all store/same store/pcp?

winner69
26-10-2022, 11:10 AM
Good stuff W69. Have these been adjusted for all store/same store/pcp?

Just reported total sales - none of this comparable / same store blah blah crap

They all bemoaned last year over this period was really ****e so I reckon pretty meaningful comparisons

LaserEyeKiwi
26-10-2022, 11:43 AM
Yesterday's update that sales were up 27.5% was fantastic news

But looking at what HLG, Lovisa and Premier have done in much the same periods that 27.5% pale into insignificance

Not doing as well as they could have?


Even Restaurant Brands beats it

some comparisons -

MHJ 16 weeeks (July/Aug/Sep/Oct) +27.5%
HLG 8 weeks (Aug/Sep) +68.49%
LOV 7 weeks (July/Aug) +66.1%
BRG - August sales more than 60% up on pcp (Aug/Sep/Oct sales report out soon)
PVT (Premier) - 7 weeks (Aug/Sep) +46.7%
RBD 3 months (July/Aug/Sept) +32.3%

Have to factor in both the different geographic distribution of those companies (how much revenue was in regions that didn’t have lockdown in year ago period eg Canada vs Aus/NZ), and also date range and the difference in lockdown across that range (MHJ includes July & Oct).

Waltzing
26-10-2022, 05:29 PM
the story for MHJ versus HLG is in the P&L....

beside the fact the sign on the ledgers are wrong.

but hey its for the public therefore who cares..

it a managed BB else there would be no shares to buy.

Waltzing
26-10-2022, 05:34 PM
Re Balance dates.

The MHJ P&L is for "for the year ended 26 June 2022"

P&L performance comparision variance to HLG there fore places HMJ on a handicap.

winner69
26-10-2022, 06:27 PM
While it wouldn’t provide specifics, Michael Hill said it was looking at “interesting” and “complementary” acquisition opportunities in the fine jewellery sector within existing geographic markets. (ASM comment)

Hope they don't dilly dally around for too long ….be decisive and seize the opportunity now.

LaserEyeKiwi
27-10-2022, 09:40 AM
Last buyback activity was over a week ago…

Waltzing
27-10-2022, 04:09 PM
In other words no one at MHJ or a related party has feed any off market orders to the brokers this week but there have been some SP of 50 today and think tomorrow there should be a notice.

Its a behind the scene managed BB with most ordered processed as SP's

Notice the number of buy order is increasing as the SHAZ realise they can buy now and if there isnt millions of shares being sold by the family they can make some quick money..

would be very surprised if the HILL family doesnt want some of the BB...

winner69
28-10-2022, 08:55 AM
Yippee the buy back returns in full swing

Stopped the slide into the 110's ..... just as well for the buyback

Wonder what share price would be today if they hadn't supported it by buying millions of shares

Waltzing
28-10-2022, 09:10 AM
replying on other site.

Rawz
28-10-2022, 09:33 AM
replying on other site.

No need Waltz. Just look at the MHJ PnL. And the sub tables. Adds up to the cent

All the info is there

LaserEyeKiwi
28-10-2022, 11:16 AM
Buyback back in action

Waltzing
28-10-2022, 12:38 PM
"Just look at the MHJ PnL. And the sub tables. Adds up to the cent"

was not commenting on MHJ but HLG's which report is not accurate and in the age of optimus prime is pathetic... in fact we are well past the point where eye balls should be used to read the stats on these reports....

ALL cents are rounded or adjusted.. " Adds up to the Dollar".

The P&L variance comparision of MHJ to HLG makes for very interesting reading and maybe RF on the board of MHJ has brough discipline to the P&L expense section.

Rawz
30-10-2022, 04:14 PM
"Just look at the MHJ PnL. And the sub tables. Adds up to the cent"

was not commenting on MHJ but HLG's which report is not accurate and in the age of optimus prime is pathetic... in fact we are well past the point where eye balls should be used to read the stats on these reports....

ALL cents are rounded or adjusted.. " Adds up to the Dollar".

The P&L variance comparision of MHJ to HLG makes for very interesting reading and maybe RF on the board of MHJ has brough discipline to the P&L expense section.







Hey Waltz you were wordle today lol

winner69
30-10-2022, 04:34 PM
Hey Waltz you were wordle today lol

Wordle 498 1/6

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

I choked on my cornflakes when this happened …..he’s an inspiration eh

winner69
31-10-2022, 08:41 AM
Good times again as the buying starts again

Was getting a bit worried when they weren’t propping up the share price

Surely not overpaying are they ..but who cares as long as they keep buying …it’s only a smidgeon of their cash

sb9
31-10-2022, 10:01 PM
Big crossing towards end of trading day..



132.5
3,265,938
16:42
SP

Waltzing
31-10-2022, 10:46 PM
Shocking Trueeeeeeeeeeeeeeely shocking...

outrageous!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQTA6in9sn0

SEEING RED , RED . RED!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPrOEMW60MY

whos trust; whos trust.....

Nothing to declare to the IRD... Nothing... ticks the nothing to declare box....

RED only RED!

Sharks ; SHARKS!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Te3_VlimRw0

in the HOOD; in the HOOD...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQCSxqScSVQ

LaserEyeKiwi
01-11-2022, 12:08 PM
Big crossing towards end of trading day..



132.5
3,265,938
16:42
SP




crikey, good thing that wasn’t part of the buyback.

Waltzing
01-11-2022, 02:37 PM
"crikey"

havnt checked the BB notification as we are out testing at this time of year before NZ lakes are destroyed by gaint wake boats...

thanks for that LEK

nearly had a heart attack...at mid night...

is the world still here? are we all here? ; are we all HERE!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snTaSJk0n_Y

winner69
02-11-2022, 10:37 AM
Heading to $1.40

C’mon guys …. More effort into the buy back please

Pump it up

FTG
02-11-2022, 10:50 AM
Choo Choo!

The freight train is starting to rebuild some momentum?

$1.40....then to me it looks like $1.55 is the next station on the schedule to visit.

winner69
02-11-2022, 10:56 AM
Choo Choo!

The freight train is starting to rebuild some momentum?

$1.40....then to me it looks like $1.55 is the next station on the schedule to visit.

Then 2 bucks next year

Rawz
02-11-2022, 11:19 AM
Heading to $1.40

C’mon guys …. More effort into the buy back please

Pump it up

Have to bid it up. whos going to part with their shares around these levels?

Waltzing
02-11-2022, 11:36 AM
"Pump it up"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HtyF0jux2Q

Waltzing
02-11-2022, 10:45 PM
135... well never thought it would happen... should have back up the truck but oh well ...

might next time anyway since this thing sells off everytime the new is good ...

winner69
08-11-2022, 09:14 AM
OMG, Spheria Asset Management been selling heaps of shares lately

I thought they were in love with Michael Hill (the company that is)

They losing the faith?

Rawz
08-11-2022, 09:18 AM
OMG, Spheria Asset Management been selling heaps of shares lately

I thought they were in love with Michael Hill (the company that is)

They losing the faith?

well everyone else including ACC, R Fyfe & Rawz (lol) has taken some big profits since buying in during the COVID lows. Can't knock em. Doesnt mean they have lost the faith

LaserEyeKiwi
08-11-2022, 10:24 AM
OMG, Spheria Asset Management been selling heaps of shares lately

I thought they were in love with Michael Hill (the company that is)

They losing the faith?

Now we know who those gigantic block sales were last week.

Wonder who bought them?

Still hold 12%.

Waltzing
08-11-2022, 11:25 AM
Better them than management or the hill family....

actually good news as they will want to take some profit as RWZ has stated you should tke some profits when you can.

Waltzing
15-11-2022, 04:36 PM
what was that again winner(?)

see thats a typeless variable... put a star in front and you have a address of a typeless variables but you can lose some precision if its a real or float and your assigning to a decimal.....

Waltzing
18-11-2022, 11:46 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUbpGmR1-QM

winner69
21-11-2022, 08:38 AM
Hows the share buy back going guys

Wonder what share price would be now if it hadn't been in place?

Rawz
21-11-2022, 09:04 AM
Hows the share buy back going guys

Wonder what share price would be now if it hadn't been in place?

Probably $1.18

Rawz
21-11-2022, 09:44 AM
Probably $1.18

soory i got that slightly wrong- i reckon $1.23

winner69
21-11-2022, 09:46 AM
soory i got that slightly wrong- i reckon $1.23

That's OK ..... waltz might get his wish one day around a buck lol

Rawz
21-11-2022, 09:57 AM
That's OK ..... waltz might get his wish one day around a buck lol

Actually if you want to know where fair value is just at a good 10-20cents to Walts sp prediction. Worked well in the past

Waltzing
21-11-2022, 10:24 AM
DREAMS ARE FREE!!!!!

FREE !!!!!

about the only thing that is these days......

No buy back... dip to a 1.15....

Look to the results of the major retailers in the US and you might not be as happy to hold down under retail...

Winners eye on retail statistics in NZ and AUS are the only thing keeping most investors here from panicing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR0lOtdvqyg

winner69
21-11-2022, 06:26 PM
Good sign when directors buy

percy
21-11-2022, 07:02 PM
Fyfe selling.

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/mhj.nzx-402725/

peat
21-11-2022, 09:12 PM
Fyfe selling.

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/mhj.nzx-402725/

he bought at rock bottom if i recall correctly
saw he was going into canning industry in a big way, recycled Aluminium of course.

Rawz
21-11-2022, 10:09 PM
From RNZ:

Rob Fyfe, former Air New Zealand boss and current chair of Recorp, has announced his latest investment- a can manufacturing plant operating out of South Auckland.

This plant is a $100 million dollar investment, and is set to make 500 million cans a year, as well as smelting them down on site eventually.

Rob Fyfe says that another can manufacturing plant in the country is a necessary investment, because there is a shortage of can manufacturing plants in New Zealand, and it's becoming harder to keep up with demand.

"We're actually importing a couple hundred million cans a year from Australia, flew in from the Tasman, because we can't produce enough. And I've been talking to a number of drinks manufacturers out there who would love to swap out their current plastic bottle lines."

Rawz
21-11-2022, 10:17 PM
Better remove my sell order for the morning then. Fyfe selling for a good enough reason. Panic over lol

Waltzing
22-11-2022, 08:30 AM
How many is he selling... his decision would have been made ages ago...

not a good look...good decision on his part...

using the buy back to dump?

hopefully its an off market dump to another party..

winner69
22-11-2022, 08:40 AM
Waltz …it was only $450k worth of shares

Christmas shopping

And wouldn’t be buying the cheap second rate stuff from Michael Hill ….he’d be heading to a real jeweller

winner69
30-11-2022, 11:05 AM
No buying back lately

Must be going to do a sales and profit update next week ..... 5 months of year have gone .........and the news will be good news

percy
30-11-2022, 12:07 PM
Well I hope so,as granddaughter has a holiday job working for them,and wife decided to buy some of their shares yesterday.
Knowing the wife her MHJ will out perform my ARV and OCA...lol.

winner69
06-12-2022, 03:01 PM
Hope this sales update comes out soon or they start buying their shares again

$1.22 is lost carnage level

winner69
07-12-2022, 09:44 AM
Maybe They thought they were paying too much for their own shares ….destroying value

Waiting until there’s actually a decent discount to fair value before buying anymore?

Or just given up on what was really a joke

Rawz
07-12-2022, 10:09 AM
Maybe need to save the money for a huge acquisition???

Beau
08-12-2022, 01:09 PM
Hope this sales update comes out soon or they start buying their shares again

$1.22 is lost carnage level

And still it keeps slip sliding away.Maybe time to for them to start buying again. Where would they be if they hadn’t done buy back ?

winner69
08-12-2022, 01:12 PM
And still it keeps slip sliding away.Maybe time to for them to start buying again. Where would they be if they hadn’t done buy back ?

Probably sub $1

limmy
08-12-2022, 01:17 PM
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/300759789/east-auckland-michael-hill-hit-by-smash-and-grab

Beau
08-12-2022, 01:24 PM
Probably sub $1

Thats where waltzing was set to buy at,He seems to have gone missing lately

Waltzing
08-12-2022, 01:49 PM
The RBNZ gov just told you no XMAS for you.

Its total shambles in wellington and who would hold NZ stocks with this lot if idiots running the show and super mario telling you only one slice of Pizza for Xmas....

Hes going to do "WHAT EVER IT TAKES"

the NZX is on a down trend as the country is rudderless...

If the leadership of the country is missing why should investors be buying beside Insto's and dummies...

the eye of the storm isnt here yet...that storm is on the horizon and that depends on the US market and china and that insane war.

Its a perfect storm when the RBNZ gov starts acting like a school head prefect.

Busy with software for rollouts back home.

Snow Leopard
08-12-2022, 01:54 PM
The RBNZ gov just told you no XMAS for you.

Its total shambles in wellington and who would hold NZ stocks with this lot if idiots running the show and super mario telling you only one slice of Pizza for Xmas....

Hes going to do "WHAT EVER IT TAKES"

the NZX is on a down trend as the country is rudderless...

If the leadership of the country is missing why should investors be buying beside Insto's and dummies...

the eye of the storm isnt here yet...that storm is on the horizon and that depends on the US market and china and that insane war.

Its a perfect storm when the RBNZ gov starts acting like a school head prefect.

Busy with software for rollouts back home.

Here he is!

I thought you had abandoned us for the Rat cage.

Waltzing
08-12-2022, 02:13 PM
"rat cage"

what is that?

i dont look like ......

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jQuIx45WmU

with the NZ Tax departmnt compiling a new DOOMS DAY book surprised that the exodus to swizzy land isnt underway in full swing....

abandon NZ; who isnt...

For all Irish here the best solution is to apply for Political Asylum in Republic of Ireland...

you can actually compile CPP on VS 2015 (smaller foot print) on a surface pro 6 which means you can work anywhere and no cages.

of course the 9 is available now or you may prefer a mac.

but cages have been out since toshiba produced there first laptops... still have one of the originals .. it might still work!!!

ha det bra

winner69
09-12-2022, 11:03 AM
Thought they may be doing a sales update but doesn't look like it

Maybe sales are not that good and breathing big sighs of relief they did away with quarterly reporting ...... hard work to rave about rubbish reports

Rawz
09-12-2022, 12:10 PM
Im expecting sales to be a boomer.
Not sure about next year. But Canada probably save the day with its expansion east.

See those dogs over at lovisa... shesh the CEO earning $21m!!! Thats more than the fat cats at the big banks.
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/aussie-jeweller-lovisa-under-fire-over-ceo-s-21m-pay-20221206-p5c45h

Wouldnt see the honest execs and MHJ try claim such compensation

winner69
09-12-2022, 12:15 PM
Aussie gurus say aussies likely to cut back on things like jewellery as things get tight

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/bare-necessities-consumers-cut-back-on-fashion-as-rates-bite-20221208-p5c4n3.html

percy
09-12-2022, 12:18 PM
Im expecting sales to be a boomer.
Not sure about next year. But Canada probably save the day with its expansion east.

See those dogs over at lovisa... shesh the CEO earning $21m!!! Thats more than the fat cats at the big banks.
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/aussie-jeweller-lovisa-under-fire-over-ceo-s-21m-pay-20221206-p5c45h

Wouldnt see the honest execs and MHJ try claim such compensation

..................................Share price 10 years ago,..Share price 5 years ago.....Share price today.
Michael Hill Int....................$1.25...................... ................$1.30.........................$1.1 4....................NZ dollars
Lovisa Holdings Ltd...............$2.50........................... ...........$7.40.........................$22.50... ...............Au dollars..
Would appear to me MHJ directors have been asleep at the wheel.Why pay them.?

Rawz
09-12-2022, 12:21 PM
..................................Share price 10 years ago,..Share price 5 years ago.....Share price today.
Michael Hill Int....................$1.25...................... ................$1.30.........................$1.1 4....................NZ dollars
Lovisa Holdings Ltd...............$2.50........................... ...........$7.40.........................$22.50... ...............Au dollars..
Would appear to me MHJ directors have been asleep at the wheel.

Lol, just a little bit of bait in the water is all it takes :p

But you are right Percy. Lovisa is a terrific company. Wonder what the story for the next 10 years will be :cool:

winner69
09-12-2022, 12:21 PM
..................................Share price 10 years ago,..Share price 5 years ago.....Share price today.
Michael Hill Int....................$1.25...................... ................$1.30.........................$1.1 4....................NZ dollars
Lovisa Holdings Ltd...............$2.50........................... ...........$7.40.........................$22.50... ...............Au dollars..
Would appear to me MHJ directors have been asleep at the wheel.Why pay them.?

Maybe not asleep at the wheel percy ...... they may have been trying very hard to get things moving but sometimes it's impossible to make something good out of something bad no matter what you do.

But then again those numbers of your say MHJ is so so cheap eh

percy
09-12-2022, 12:32 PM
Well I hope so,as granddaughter has a holiday job working for them,and wife decided to buy some of their shares yesterday.
Knowing the wife her MHJ will out perform my ARV and OCA...lol.

Oh dear.....
Paid $1.27 for her shares.
Do not hold any LOV currently.
And to rub salt into my wounds, wife wants to go and buy a bracelet from Michael Hill.....lol..

Rawz
09-12-2022, 12:42 PM
Oh dear.....
Paid $1.27 for her shares.
Do not hold any LOV currently.
And to rub salt into my wounds, wife wants to go and buy a bracelet from Michael Hill.....lol..

The woman you your family sound like wonderful people with fine taste in jewelry :)

winner69
09-12-2022, 12:47 PM
Percy - those share prices amazing how

Probably because LOV sales are 156% (21% CAGR) than 5 years ago while MHJ sales are the same (but I'll be nice and say up a tad in 5 years)

percy
09-12-2022, 12:56 PM
The woman you your family sound like wonderful people with fine taste in jewelry :)

I dare not comment....lol.

winner69
09-12-2022, 03:43 PM
Oh dear.....
Paid $1.27 for her shares.
Do not hold any LOV currently.
And to rub salt into my wounds, wife wants to go and buy a bracelet from Michael Hill.....lol..

Amazing shop in Melbourne is James Alfredson

They just sent me email saying my wife might like this bracelet for Christmas

Buy something once from him and he remembers eh

Think I will it a miss this year …….but I’ll inquire as to the price for a laugh …..my guess about $85,000 but could be way off.

https://www.jamesalfredson.com/bracelets/an-antique-diamond-and-yellow-gold-hinged-buckle-design-bangle

percy
09-12-2022, 03:51 PM
These look great...........................lol.

https://www.lovisa.com.au/collections/wristwear/products/cer-sg-dia-inly-3pk-bngl

Rawz
09-12-2022, 03:53 PM
These best though: https://www.michaelhill.co.nz/jewellery/bracelets-bangles

percy
09-12-2022, 04:11 PM
These best though: https://www.michaelhill.co.nz/jewellery/bracelets-bangles

I am feeling ill...................................lol

winner69
14-12-2022, 08:49 AM
So it looks like we have to wait to see how things are

Half Year sales update mid Jan but we might get a brief update after Xmas saying things have gone really well and Comparable EBIT will be over $65m and NPAT (the real number) will be about $50m

Rawz
19-12-2022, 12:13 PM
Cant wait :eek2:

Share Buy-back Update MHJ commenced its on-market share buy-back on 19 September 2022 and paused from 21 November 2022, given the commencement of the Company’s usual black-out period at the start of the key Christmas trading period, and pursuant to the MHJ share trading policy. During the buy-back period, the following shares were acquired and cancelled:
- ASX: 4.35m shares costing A$5.1m at an average share price of A$1.18
- NZX: 4.28m shares costing NZ$5.7m at an average share price of NZ$1.33
- Total cash cost of A$10.2m
- Total shares bought back of 8.63m shares representing 2.2% of issued capital
- The number of issued shares have decreased from 388,320,121 to 379,688,884

We anticipate recommencing the on-market share buy-back at the discretion of the Board, at a point in time after the FY23H1 result release announcement.

Reporting Announcement Dates
As previously announced, the Company has now moved to half yearly trading updates and as such, the reporting dates for the balance of FY23 are set out below.

Announcement
Trading Update for FY23H1 (period ending 1 January 2023, 27-week) Thursday, 19 January 2023
Results Release for FY23H1 (period ending 1 January 2023, 27-week) Monday, 27 February 2023
Trading Update for Full Year FY23 (period ending 2 July 2023, 53-week) Tuesday, 18 July 2023
Results Release for Full Year FY23 (period ending 2 July 2023, 53-week) Friday, 25 August 2023

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/404281

winner69
19-12-2022, 01:35 PM
Hey rawz .. 27 first half …that’ll make sales growth look even better eh

Rawz
19-12-2022, 01:47 PM
Hope so lol

MHJ up to their old tricks again. Never mind, they will give us a same stores/ all stores/ restated/ covid adjusted/ comparative number.

I only read the canada part these days

winner69
08-01-2023, 11:40 AM
Update coming soon .... week after next

My gues is that first half sales will be about A$360m ....taking last 12 months sales to A$630m

Whoops - forgot it's for 27 weeks so need to add that extra week on so its A$370m (and A$640m)

Seems more than reasonable .... maybe a bit conservative

Margins will remain strong so NPAT should be $17m to $20m higher than last year

And still share price is weak as

Rawz
08-01-2023, 12:48 PM
About $38.6m profit i reckon. 10 cents eps.

What on earth are they going to do with all the cash they generate :scared:

777
09-01-2023, 04:43 PM
About $38.6m profit i reckon. 10 cents eps.

What on earth are they going to do with all the cash they generate :scared:

Spend it on bollards.

Rawz
12-01-2023, 09:05 PM
DMX asset management added to their holding of MHJ according to their recent update (https://mcusercontent.com/1a84be027051b31062de96622/files/d03cd562-f079-5223-dee6-80bace3f00bb/DMXASF_December_2022_Investor_Update.pdf) not sure that link will work as I am using my phone.

Anyways- Percy will be happy. He’s a big fan of DMX and of course MHJ

winner69
18-01-2023, 05:28 PM
Must be a BOOMER OF AN UPDATE tomorrow

Big jump today ..close 123

Maybe 150 next week ..the big catch up

clearasmud
18-01-2023, 06:30 PM
Must be a BOOMER OF AN UPDATE tomorrow

Big jump today ..close 123

Maybe 150 next week ..the big catch up

Can the business combine high payouts with growth
Fingers crossed for tomorrow. .

Rawz
19-01-2023, 09:12 AM
Cant wait to see how much canada did :eek2:

Rawz
19-01-2023, 09:53 AM
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/405519

Aus/NZ did way better than i thought and canada did less

Rawz
19-01-2023, 10:27 AM
Hope they crank the buyback with the SP at these levels.

Or pay us a 7 cent HY divvy

alokdhir
19-01-2023, 10:39 AM
Hope they crank the buyback with the SP at these levels.

Or pay us a 7 cent HY divvy

Why wish so small mate ? Just wish they make u CEO then all these small wishes can come true automatically ....:p

Rawz
19-01-2023, 10:55 AM
Why wish so small mate ? Just wish they make u CEO then all these small wishes can come true automatically ....:p

My wish is for you, Alokdhir, to share your investing secrets
Mr no.2 top stock picker in a bear market :p

winner69
19-01-2023, 11:19 AM
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/405519

Aus/NZ did way better than i thought and canada did less

WTF going on with Canada - going nowhere Rawz. Must be a bit disappointing

Sales up 11.7% (less than what I was predicting) - EBIT might be about the same as last year or maybe 5% up. What's going on here Rawz - surely not selling heaps more and not making much more

NZ/Aust unlikely to grow sales as strongly in H2 - let's hope Canada doesn't become a disaster else the Full Year result could be real bad

So back to now growth (profit) company with a steady profit / cash flow. If that is the case decent divies should be the case as can't rely on the buyback forever to keepthe share price up.

For interest sakes heres an updated sales trend

Rawz
19-01-2023, 11:56 AM
Im not sure what to make of Canada.

Daniel Bracken reckons its good- "Considering Canada had a record first half last year, this year’s result still delivered growth, and represents 26% growth on two years ago."
Maybe we should be happy that they are maintaining the covid rebound boom in sales. Where as other retailers cannot maintain the the rebound and sales are shrinking back to the trendline

End of the day sales are up. EBIT up. Profit going to be up. balance sheet is strong. dividend will be more than last year.

whatever, im happy to hold

alokdhir
19-01-2023, 12:02 PM
My wish is for you, Alokdhir, to share your investing secrets
Mr no.2 top stock picker in a bear market :p

Be careful with what u wish for ...sometimes wishes do come true ....:D

winner69
03-02-2023, 04:30 PM
Police Minister Nash wants to quicken the scheduled reduction in number of dairies that can sell cigarettes to cut down number of burgalaries and ram raids

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/police-minister-stuart-nash-pushing-for-faster-removal-of-cigarettes-from-dairies/NFS6ZL2J5VAUPLBUDMRIR63N2U/


He apparently also looking at seeking a reduction in the number of stores selling jewellery

Rawz
03-02-2023, 04:38 PM
Police Minister Nash wants to quicken the scheduled reduction in number of dairies that can sell cigarettes to cut down number of burgalaries and ram raids

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/police-minister-stuart-nash-pushing-for-faster-removal-of-cigarettes-from-dairies/NFS6ZL2J5VAUPLBUDMRIR63N2U/


He apparently also looking at seeking a reduction in the number of stores selling jewellery

MHJ doing their part!! Store count reduced heaps

MHJ such a good corporate citizen

Rawz
09-02-2023, 05:05 PM
I post this for the MHJ fan club (includes me)

From our mates DMX asset management:

Michael Hill is a long-established jewellery retailer, originally from New Zealand but now Australia-based and operating a network of 282 stores across Australia (148 stores), New Zealand (48), and Canada (86). With a more than 40 year history of success, growth, and strong returns on invested capital (the vast majority of which as a listed company), it’s perplexing that the market rates the company so lowly. Having fallen ~20% in 2022, its shares continued to languish in January despite fairly strong December half-year results. The company continues to grow its revenue, and EBIT is guided to tick up modestly. Margins have been managed very well, with gross profit improvements over the past few years being sustained. The company has a pristine balance sheet, with – we estimate – around 10% genuine surplus cash.

Despite its long history of success, and in particular the clearly successful rejuvenation under its current CEO and management team, its shares trade for just 8-9 times earnings. Management and the Board are mindful of the value on offer here, with the company implementing an onmarket buy-back programme, and buying as aggressively as possible. In the two months from the commencement of the buy-back in September, until pausing for the company’s trading black-out period, the company repurchased over 2% of its shares outstanding. A solid achievement for a fairly tightly-held stock. The company is nearing the end of its 3-month black-out period, but has announced it expects to resume the buyback once it’s reported in late February.

We rate the company’s long-term track record, now-proven management, and rational approach to its undervalued stock. While the consumer environment is undoubtedly challenging, and expected to become more so in the period ahead, we believe the market is over-discounting this concern with Michael Hill and overlooking its high quality and very attractive valuation.

winner69
09-02-2023, 05:52 PM
Rawz me ol’ mate - did you write that for DMX

Rawz
09-02-2023, 09:18 PM
Rawz me ol’ mate - did you write that for DMX

I know what you mean, when I read it I was like yes yes yes this is exactly what I have been rambling about on sharetrader for 18 months!!!

winner69
21-02-2023, 02:47 PM
At least the share price has stopped falling ……and probably won’t go sub $1

Hope the buy back resumes after next weeks announcement …..something needs to get share price moving

Rawz
21-02-2023, 03:17 PM
Good buying at these levels.

People saying other cyclicals like TRA and FBU are cheap… wow they need to look at MHJ

winner69
22-02-2023, 04:46 PM
Hope MHJ result as good as Lovisa one

Here’s a guy review of Lovisa result

https://arichlife.com.au/lovisa-asx-lov-h1-fy-2023-results-profit-soars-over-30/

Rawz
24-02-2023, 11:40 AM
MHJ trading on a 18% free cash flow yield :t_up:

winner69
24-02-2023, 11:50 AM
MHJ trading on a 18% free cash flow yield :t_up:

Share orice should well over 2 bucks then eh .... wonder why it isn't

Rawz
24-02-2023, 12:09 PM
Share orice should well over 2 bucks then eh .... wonder why it isn't

People have bad memories of old MHJ management destroying shareholder value?
People think all jewelry sales cease when a recession hits?

Who knows...

Looking forward to the buy back cranking up again. And looking forward to the dividends.

winner69
27-02-2023, 09:42 AM
OKish result

Best part - On the basis that retail trading conditions do not materially deteriorate, it is anticipated the Company’s full year comparable EBIT will be ahead of prior year.

A good read as usual from the MHJ writers .....they do love to to ad colour and sparkle to the numbers

Rawz - plese dial in to call and bring us up to date to the real guts of what's going on

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/407369/389475.pdf

Rawz
27-02-2023, 10:09 AM
Taking into consideration the Company’s performance and strength of the balance sheet, the Board has decided to declare an increased interim dividend of AU4.0 cents per share (FY22H1: AU3.5cps), unfranked, fully imputed with conduit foreign income.
The record date for the dividend will be Friday 10 March 2023 with payment on Friday 24 March 2023.
In addition to the above, the Company retains sufficient balance sheet strength and cash reserves for deployment into new earnings accretive growth initiatives. These cash reserves and an undrawn debt facility reaffirm the Company’s ability to pursue acquisition opportunities in the fine jewellery sector in our existing markets, which meet our strategic and investment criteria.
The on-market share buy-back commenced during the half, with the Company acquiring 8.6m shares at a cost of $10.2m, representing 2.2% of share capital.
The Board retains the discretion to resume buy-back activity.

MHJ have been generating very strong free cashflows.. with these they are giving some back to us shareholders via increasing dividends and buybacks, reinvesting into the business and looking for acquisitions.
$78M cash in the bank. Strong management that, in my opinion.. are good capital allocators and defenders of company funds.. I think if there is to be an acquisition it will be good for the business and eps accretive

This little Medley play- could be good one day too.

anyways happy holder and cant dial in unfortunately as its close to eom and deals need to be done