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LaserEyeKiwi
27-02-2023, 10:22 AM
Greetings chaps/chappettes.
Still banging out the cash at a ridiculously low single digit earnings multiple! Even more so on an ex-cash basis!
Curious though that they managed to surge revenue by 11%, maintain gross margin, and yet had relatively flat net income. A lot of below the line increases unmentioned in the letter:
14485
Employee benefits expense: up from $75.3m -> $88.5m
Marketing costs: up from $23.4m -> $28.5m
Selling expenses: up from $9.3m -> $11.7m
All rising much more than the pace of revenue increase during the half.
Hey LEK, GOOD TO SEE YOU BACK
same as HLG. Sales up but expenses up more
Happy to keep collecting those juicy divvys as they continue bulge..especially being paid out in AUD.
winner69
27-02-2023, 11:46 AM
NPBT up $2.2m on pcp
Aust NPBT increased but declined in NZ and Canada - Canada $6.5m less than pcp
Interesting the brreakdown of where the small increase in profit came from - below
Reported numbers - not this comparable crap
winner69
27-02-2023, 12:21 PM
When you guys rave on about MHJ cash flows I have to double check what I see
I see over the last 12 months (last two half years) a negative free cash flow ...ie cash burn
Even the H123 FCF of $8.9m isn't that flash
However let them slowly continue to give that mountain of cash back to shareholders ...but if things continue as they have of late it might be a different ball game in a year or so
This is how I see NHJ Free Cash Flows - wasn't H121 a bonanza?
winner69
27-02-2023, 12:30 PM
Share price on fire today
Hope it gets to 140/150 soon
Chep az
iceman
27-02-2023, 12:54 PM
Ram raids hurting the bottom line:
"Bracken said providing extra security for its Auckland retailers, which were impacted by multiple robberies and ram raids, had hurt profitability.
Its New Zealand pre-tax profit fell 8.2% to $17.1m, while revenue rose 13.8% to a record $76.3m. The company has adjusted the figures so they cover a comparable 26-week period.
“Given the uplift in the security incidents experienced by Auckland retailers through the half, additional investment in security was required to protect our team and stores, which had a direct impact on earnings,” Bracken said.
When you guys rave on about MHJ cash flows I have to double check what I see
I see over the last 12 months (last two half years) a negative free cash flow ...ie cash burn
Even the H123 FCF of $8.9m isn't that flash
However let them slowly continue to give that mountain of cash back to shareholders ...but if things continue as they have of late it might be a different ball game in a year or so
This is how I see NHJ Free Cash Flows - wasn't H121 a bonanza?
Thats really interesting, W69. Thanks for sharing.
When I look at ASB they have FCF as follows;
FY17 -$4M
FY18 $48M
FY19 $45M
FY20 $75M
FY21 $108M
FY22 $69M
all Aus$. all different to your calcs. Do you know what the difference would be?
Im not sure if im being dumb here or if i need to add more financial jiggery in....
W69 says FCF was $8.9m....
but I calculate FCF for the half year as:
cash from operating activities $47,590k
less capex $16,895k
FCF= $30,695k ($30.7m)
??
winner69
28-02-2023, 08:12 AM
Im not sure if im being dumb here or if i need to add more financial jiggery in....
W69 says FCF was $8.9m....
but I calculate FCF for the half year as:
cash from operating activities $47,590k
less capex $16,895k
FCF= $30,695k ($30.7m)
??
You need to account for rent payments …in Finance Cashflows. Rent a real day to day thing that consumes a lot of cash eh and just because accounting standards changed doesn’t mean it goes away.
Maybe should call my FCF something like Adjusted Normalised Comparable Free Cash Flows …but the trend is still the same.
You need to account for rent payments …in Finance Cashflows. Rent a real day to day thing that consumes a lot of cash eh and just because accounting standards changed doesn’t mean it goes away.
Maybe should call my FCF something like Adjusted Normalised Comparable Free Cash Flows …but the trend is still the same.
Oh yes of course. thank you.
Cant really rely on ASB or yahoo finance for real FCF calcs. Even if technically correct
winner69
02-03-2023, 03:10 PM
Market not liking profit announcement
Better start buying their own shares again …isn’t it a bit sad when the company has to do this to keep share price.
Shouldn’t have just given everybody a big divie instead of trying to be clever …outcome might have been different
winner69
06-03-2023, 11:34 AM
Seems MHJ and KMD having a race ……. Neck and neck in the race to somewhere
I got a bob each way :eek2:
Uncle Bob might like Div yields :)
winner69
07-03-2023, 01:41 PM
Buy back on again?
Go MHJ
winner69
10-03-2023, 04:47 PM
I got a bob each way :eek2:
Still neck and neck in that race to somewhere
Waltzing
17-03-2023, 11:25 AM
Really wish this stock would stay down...
winner69
17-03-2023, 11:34 AM
Really wish this stock would stay down...
Maybe the 100 mark was the trigger for buy back to start 130 here we come again
Mind you they averaged $1.33 last time so might need to go to $1.40 this time
Cool
when it gets down to a buck sellers dry up every time..
Wonder how Canada is going? when's the next div
Waltzing
17-03-2023, 03:16 PM
Yes investors it will be interesting to see what happens next..
With country's in technical recession it will be real test of the retailers who have the market in their hands.
https://www.nzx.com/instruments/MHJ/dividends
Toddy
19-03-2023, 08:59 PM
Check out Bayfair MHJ on Facebook being robbed in broad daylight this afternoon.
Check out Bayfair MHJ on Facebook being robbed in broad daylight this afternoon.
cant all be bad -- they must have the right stuff in store :)
Habits
20-03-2023, 08:24 AM
Check out Bayfair MHJ on Facebook being robbed in broad daylight this afternoon.
They said they were fitting out the shops with cannons. Just fog cannons sadly, but still not deployed.
Here is a video if you can bear to watch it:
Bystanders' shock as trio raid Michael Hill store at Bayfair Shopping Centre | Stuff.co.nz
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/131544301/bystanders-shock-as-trio-raid-michael-hill-store-at-bayfair-shopping-centre
Society a little broken at the moment. Something not working
Just in time for some weekend enjoyment, another juicy divvy landed in bank a/c today.
clearasmud
24-03-2023, 02:44 PM
Just in time for some weekend enjoyment, another juicy divvy landed in bank a/c today.
Nice nice. Good on you. Hopefully the final dividend is even higher.
Waltzing
24-03-2023, 07:46 PM
GOSH and was hoping for a dollar... no chance.. that new police minister just lifted the share price...
How many MHJ shops have been lifted in AUS or is it just a new local thing...
Habits
19-04-2023, 12:48 PM
Terrible and sickening. Takapuna store
Why Michael Hill had to close one of its flagship stores
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/why-michael-hill-had-to-close-one-of-its-flagship-stores/MY2PP6RJJBFVJKRI754SMLXVRM/
Terrible and sickening. Takapuna store
Why Michael Hill had to close one of its flagship stores
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/why-michael-hill-had-to-close-one-of-its-flagship-stores/MY2PP6RJJBFVJKRI754SMLXVRM/
vote national... labour weak and woke. nothing will change under them
Habits
19-04-2023, 12:58 PM
Hell its bad. The royal oak jewellery shop that had a 200k smash up. 3 offenders only one jailed and not that long. They were spilling sob stories to the judge. If this were saudi there would be a lot of one handed people
winner69
20-04-2023, 08:38 AM
Action at last ..an acquisition
Going to be eps accretive immediately ……what a nonsense statement …of course if profitable it’s going to EPS accretive,
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/410165/392879.pdf
percy
20-04-2023, 08:47 AM
I think the acquisition makes sense.
Expanding the foot print of a "profitable" business should reward shareholders.
They will need to watch the cost of store fit outs.
Michael Hill stores took a very long time to cover their fit outs.
From memory it was 2 to 3 years, compared with LOV's under 6 months.
https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/michael-hill-sparkles-in-45m-buy-of-jewellery-chain-20230419-p5d1np
winner69
20-04-2023, 09:36 AM
https://www.nbr.co.nz/investment/michael-hill-acquires-australian-jewellery-and-watch-retailer/
NBR not as posh as AFR
Habits
21-04-2023, 07:10 PM
hard to watch this
Smash and grabber nabbed, diamonds on the floor in Hamilton mall heist | Stuff.co.nz
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/131839557/smash-and-grabber-nabbed-diamonds-on-the-floor-in-hamilton-mall-heist
winner69
25-04-2023, 07:03 PM
At least mhj management expecting big increases in share price
The earn out payment seems to have a share component and the Table on Slide 13 of the preso has indicative share prices in a year from A$1.50 to A$1.90+
Cool eh
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/410166/392882.pdf
Market not too impressed with acquisition so far is it
winner69
25-04-2023, 07:47 PM
Mhj prepared to pay 5.6 times ebitda for Bevilles
Much higher multiple that what they trade themselves
Sort of says they think their shares should be over 2 bucks
Heck
The acquisition is a million times better than buying the bankrupt jewelry chain in the USA during the GFC storm. Rational for that one was, ‘this is a great opportunity to quickly enter the US market’. Good one…
Reading the presentation linked (thanks winner) the rational for this acquisition looks solid. leaving no consumer surplus on the demand curve. I like the target of increasing current store count from 26 to 80-100 over the next 5 years. Some room to improve ebitda through synergies and utilizing MHJ head office functions.
Obviously not going to be the last little bolt on acquisition.
Trading dirt cheap multiples with a 11% dividend yield. we will see multiple expansion if management execute and if you look at their track record I am certainly happy to be on board this train while collecting a nice divvy waiting for the re-rating.
The next 5 years pretty exciting aye with organic growth and clearly going to be more bolt on acquisitions. Best type of growth
Waltzing
26-04-2023, 09:33 AM
Its going to be interesting to see if this executes...
hard to not pay up as this is the end of the market sugar high... maybe better to have waited 12 months to buy but hey...
AUS is NOT NZ and mineral prices cycles for IRON and COPPER could keep the KANGAS bouncing along for the next decade..
Its going to be interesting to see if this executes...
hard to not pay up as this is the end of the market sugar high... maybe better to have waited 12 months to buy but hey...
AUS is NOT NZ and mineral prices cycles for IRON and COPPER could keep the KANGAS bouncing along for the next decade..
Agree, if this executes then market will have much more faith and then its re-rate time.
Personally i think they have proven themselves with the MHJ turnaround.
Fyfe (chair), Bracken (CEO) & Lowe (CFO) are SOLID
winner69
03-05-2023, 06:19 PM
Jeez … Spheria have been selling
Hope it’s not the start of selling the lot
winner69
04-05-2023, 01:16 PM
Share price back to 106, about the same as when they announced that acquisition
You would have thought an acquisition leading to growth would have been positive news
taking a pounding today.. for no good reason or have i missed something?
this from DMX the other day:
During the month, the company announced the acquisition of Bevilles – a mid-market jewellery retailer with 26 stores across Australia. An acquisition of this nature had been well-flagged to the market, and in terms of size, is comfortably funded utilising the company’s current cash balance. Bevilles brand positioning is important as with its lower average basket size it has a very different market, but is complementary in terms of operating leverage through being a part of the larger group.
Paying in cash and without any equity component means the purchase is expected to be immediately EPS accretive. While there will be some obvious synergies, particularly around improved vendor terms and lease negotiations, the real value-uplift will be from rolling the Bevilles store network out to a more meaningful footprint in the Australian market. From a starting position of 26 stores, the company is preparing to add 10-15 stores pa for some number of years. For Michael Hill, Bevilles provides some growth potential that has been missing over the past couple of years. Success with Bevilles, together with continued business improvement momentum within the core Michael Hill brand, could make Michael Hill look very cheap from its current ~9 times P/E base.
alokdhir
12-05-2023, 03:08 PM
That's the beauty and also the bane of such small caps ...go up fast when Gurus gets in and then go down fast too when Gurus already out but followers left in ...
Advise for choppy markets is always large cap blue chips as funds support them at lower valuations ...
KFL for a reason dont want too many small caps ...so Rawz idea of they looking at MHJ or TRA for PPH money maybe flawed ....they have burnt our money too many times on such stocks ..Metro Glass !!
KFL once a owner of MHJ.. back when MHJ was rolling out stores all over the place. Never say never... they may see the Bevilles growth factor as just enough to get them back on board
also please tell me KFL never invested in Metro Glass? if thats true wow loss of respect for them lol
Sheesh found this thread back on page 6...
Anyways close to $1. always good buying close to $1 in current trading range (based on my limited TA knowledge- gurus feel free to chime in).
Waltzing will be buying no doubt.
Are MHJ management the best capital allocators in on the NZX? Based on their excellent buy backs, acquisition and dividends......
winner69
31-05-2023, 07:36 PM
Could be worse ….on ASX tonight
Trading Update
Given the prevailing economic conditions and resulting softening of consumer sentiment, trade has been more challenging for the jewellery industry in the second half, particularly in Australia and New Zealand, with New Zealand having also been impacted by significant weather events and a recent resurgence of security incidents and related costs.
Third party transactional data for the total Australian retail jewellery segment has shown a double- digit decline in sales for the first four months of the second half. However, Michael Hill group sales for the second half1 are only down 3.5%, demonstrating that Michael Hill has continued to take market share even in a more challenging environment. Michael Hill’s total group sales for FY23 year to date2 are up 5.5%.
winner69
31-05-2023, 07:37 PM
Hope margins holding up and expenses under tight control or else profits could be down big time
How/why does that only get released to the asx…
Canada must be pumping based on that
winner69
31-05-2023, 07:59 PM
How/why does that only get released to the asx…
Canada must be pumping based on that
After hours on ASX ….NZX had closed for day
Read full story tomorrow …bit about Beville and new credit finance arrangement orvsomething
Beville is going to be the growth engine for MHJ over the next 5 years. All funded via cashflows from the mature MHJ business and new fancy finance facility with ANZ and HSBC.
Meanwhile us shareholders can sit back and collect the dividends and take comfort that this is trading single digit price earnings multiple.
Its a nice hold.
Also remember the earnout agreement requires MHJ share price to be over $1.80 or $2 was it? so MHJ guru management team clearly have SP capital gains in their minds.
winner69
01-06-2023, 08:58 AM
Rawz, interesting how the years sales have been tracking
After 16 weeks +27.5%
After 27 weeks +11.7%
After 47 weeks +5.5%
Maybe full year a small +ve ….better than -ve eh
Canada must be pumping you say …..how do you think that when Canada sales in 1st half were ‘flat’
C need to wait until July for next update ….could be interesting.
Yes its trending down like a lot of other companies.
I misread that announcement last night. I thought I read Aus/NZ way down but group up so I figured Canada saved the day.
Could get the chance to buy into the future growth cheaply on short term SP weakness before year end. See what happens.
winner69
01-06-2023, 11:27 AM
Sort of headlines we like to see eh Rawz ..inbBusinessDesk
Michael Hill bucks Aussie retail downturn
Sort of headlines we like to see eh Rawz ..inbBusinessDesk
Michael Hill bucks Aussie retail downturn
it warms the heart. bless them
winner69
07-06-2023, 12:44 PM
Morningstar has big rave about Lovisa
Double it’s footprint by 2030 they reckon
Just as well not really a competitor for mhj
https://www.morningstar.com.au/insights/stocks/235946/an-asx-retailer-set-to-double-its-footprint-by-2030
Those a rookie numbers W69.
MHJ plan to increase Bevilles footprint by 200% to 285% by 2028.
26 stores to 80-100 stores.
winner69
08-06-2023, 07:25 PM
Must be something wrong with NZX feed ……..MHJ seems to have closed below a buck …..even hit 96 cents intraday
Valuegrowth
08-06-2023, 07:56 PM
Unless purchasing power improve, there will be less demand for non-essential items in the short-run. I expect some sort of turnaround when inflation(high asset prices) fall along with cost of doing business.
Must be something wrong with NZX feed ……..MHJ seems to have closed below a buck …..even hit 96 cents intraday
Sheesh i really thought $1 would hold. Chart not looking good aye
winner69
11-06-2023, 12:30 PM
Down another 3 cents on Friday to close at 96 cents
Hope not the start of a long slide down to 70/80 cents
If they can’t hold the DPS (noting less shares around these days) can’t fall too far surely.
Valuegrowth
11-06-2023, 02:41 PM
Nothing to worry much about dropping in cents as long as they are going concern.
winner69
11-06-2023, 03:12 PM
Share price chart looking a bit like how sales are going ….declining
Share price chart looking a bit like how sales are going ….declining
Inspiring stuff
Last time I loaded up in the 80cent range it worked well. Could get really ugly and we get another chance?
winner69
11-06-2023, 06:16 PM
Guy on other site has interesting chart …says A$0.635 a possibility
Valuegrowth
12-06-2023, 07:54 AM
Very interesting. In my view, no body can predict correctly, but we can try to estimate. Even Apple has introduced "buy now pay later."
It means consumer purchasing power is falling rapidly.
A bit of a tumble today. that guy on the other place that said some silly price due to technical analysis might be right based on the drop today and the buy side depth. :scared:
winner69
26-06-2023, 03:43 PM
A bit of a tumble today. that guy on the other place that said some silly price due to technical analysis might be right based on the drop today and the buy side depth. :scared:
MHJ must have you pulling your hair out rawz
Downtrend still quite strong ….and still remains rather unloved
Might get an update in a few weeks and an idea what full year result will be
MHJ master of +ve spin and I think they’ll have to pull all stops out to paint a shiny bright picture this time around.
winner69
26-06-2023, 03:47 PM
Even KMD gone below a buck today
Leemsip
26-06-2023, 04:02 PM
Even KMD gone below a buck today
Retail getting pumped. Same over in Oz. Should be some good opportunities coming up.
How long to wait before catching the knife though.
MHJ must have you pulling your hair out rawz
Downtrend still quite strong ….and still remains rather unloved
Might get an update in a few weeks and an idea what full year result will be
MHJ master of +ve spin and I think they’ll have to pull all stops out to paint a shiny bright picture this time around.
I sold and put the money into NZA and TSK.
But always a love affair me and MHJ. So ill be back in one day
winner69
17-07-2023, 12:55 PM
Thursday is the day when we’ll hear if the ‘challenging conditions’ have continued since the last update which said the first 20 weeks of H223 sales were down 3.5%
Way share price going today maybe it’s no so good news
winner69
20-07-2023, 09:52 AM
Suppose not too bad in a “challenging market”
Full year Comparable EBIT (whatever that means) down about 10% on last …..looks like second half about breakeven at npat level
But all looking good for F24 so no worries
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/414969/398786.pdf
winner69
20-07-2023, 09:53 AM
Canada showed no growth …hope not becoming a bit of a dog
Pretty good result all things considered.
winner69
20-07-2023, 11:18 AM
I try hard to really like (enthuse over) MHJ
Sales trend as per chart not that inspiring and this years profit much the same as 2017 hardly inspires confidence.
Full credit to whoever writes their announcements ……always so so positive but words don’t seem to translate into good numbers …..steady as she goes probably best description
percy
20-07-2023, 11:30 AM
I try hard to really like (enthuse over) MHJ
Sales trend as per chart not that inspiring and this years profit much the same as 2017 hardly inspires confidence.
Full credit to whoever writes their announcements ……always so so positive but words don’t seem to translate into good numbers …..steady as she goes probably best description
I too find it hard to get enthused with MHJ.
I did get over excited late last a bought a small holding,however when I could not load my banking details into the Aussie share registry's web site I sold.
Stores Canada plus 1,NZ minus 2,Aussie not counting Bevilles minus 1.So 2 fewer stores.
Bevilles 26 stores.
The big question is whether Bevilles' roll out will be profitable,and if so by how much.
Waltzing
31-07-2023, 05:19 PM
well there are buyers today... really a big day almost ... share price did not collapse...
winner69
14-08-2023, 03:01 PM
MHJ share price not wanting to say over 100
Worries about the execution of that new acquisition or market not liking the sell less make less strategy
MHJ share price not wanting to say over 100
Worries about the execution of that new acquisition or market not liking the sell less make less strategy
i was thinking the opposite and sort of surprised its staying up around $1. well done MHJ sp...
clearasmud
14-08-2023, 04:13 PM
MHJ share price not wanting to say over 100
Worries about the execution of that new acquisition or market not liking the sell less make less strategy
Discretionary retail is under the pump.
Market also hates execution risk.
And hasn't forgotten what happened last time.
im hoping one day i can load up in the 80 cent range. like 88 cents would be a treat. one can dream
Sideshow Bob
25-08-2023, 11:37 AM
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/417058/401375.pdf
Key Financial Results
• Group operating revenue increased by 5.8% to $629.6m (FY22: $595.2m, FY21: $556.5m).
• Comparable earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) decreased by 6.3% to $58.9m (FY22: $62.9m), giveninflationary cost pressures and substantial investments in New Zealand security measures. This comparesfavourably to FY21 by 4% (FY21: $56.6m).
• Group gross margin decreased by 50bps to 64.2% (FY22: 64.7%), yet 150bps ahead of FY21 (62.7%).
• Statutory net profit after tax decreased to $35.2m (FY22: $46.7m), with the variance to comparable EBITperformance largely driven by AASB16 Leases & SaaS.• Healthy inventory position to support elevated sales at $203.3m (FY22: $181.5m), with the increase mainlyattributable to the Bevilles acquisition.
• Deployment of cash on share buy-back, dividends, the Bevilles acquisition and reinvestment in the business,resulted in a net cash position of $8.4m (FY22: $95.8m).
• A three year $90m banking facility was finalised on favourable terms in June, to support strategic growth initiatives.
• Final dividend of AU3.5 cents per share declared, delivering total dividends for the year of AU7.5 cents per share(FY22: AU7.5 cps).
Operational Performance
• Group revenue was up 5.8% for the year, with Australia +9.1%, New Zealand +5.8% and Canada flat.
• Digital sales were largely flat at $41.3m (FY22: $41.9m, FY21: $34.0m) for the year, demonstrating a strong secondhalf recovery from -9% at the end of the first half.• Brilliance by Michael Hill membership now over 2 million (FY22: ~1.4m), driving repeat customers and higher ATV.
• Key initial focus for Bevilles is on integration and store roll outs, with three sites secured and another three sitesclose to finalisation for pre-Christmas opening, with a further tranche of sites already identified for the second half.The newly acquired Bevilles business contributed four weeks of sales to the FY23 Group result.• For Michael Hill, three new stores opened (AU:2, CA:1) and five under-performing stores permanently closed (AU:3,NZ:2) during the year. With the inclusion of 26 acquired Bevilles stores, the store network totals 304 across allmarkets at the end of the year (FY22: 280).
winner69
25-08-2023, 11:42 AM
Sales up 6% …..NPAT down 25% is real story when you disregard all the sparkling talk ….but after all they are sales people
And the $35m real profit is even less than F21
Last few years was great watching the margin expansion. Now are we looking at a trend backwards. started with 50bp hope its not going to drop by 200-300bp
Still a great company with clear strategy for growth in their home markets. Balance sheet is strong to support the growth. Dividends will continue to flow.
Potential for SP to drop if the slow down continues. 80 cent range would be lovely
LaserEyeKiwi
25-08-2023, 01:24 PM
A bit less attractive now the large cash pile has virtually disappeared.
Not quite sure how to take the result considering the extra week (it is 53 weeks vs 52 weeks) and the 4 weeks of breviles results included.
winner69
25-08-2023, 01:27 PM
A bit less attractive now the large cash pile has virtually disappeared.
Not quite sure how to take the result considering the extra week (it is 53 weeks vs 52 weeks) and the 4 weeks of breviles results included.
Jeez it was 53 weeks and 4 weeks of Brevilles. …….so the 25% fall in profit was even worse
Free cashflow $1m. Paid $30m in dividends.
Not sure how much they had to spend on the extra security fitouts. $5m-$9m?
Debt is coming to the balance sheet to fund the brevilles expansion while paying dividends
LaserEyeKiwi
25-08-2023, 02:26 PM
Free cashflow $1m. Paid $30m in dividends.
Not sure how much they had to spend on the extra security fitouts. $5m-$9m?
Debt is coming to the balance sheet to fund the brevilles expansion while paying dividends
Inventory increased substantially, so maybe a one time thing alongside the breville acquisition.
I calculate ROIC is 42%
seems incredibly high?
EBIT= $75.2M
Tax rate= 30%
invested capital= $180m
winner69
25-08-2023, 03:16 PM
I calculate ROIC is 42%
seems incredibly high?
EBIT= $75.2M
Tax rate= 30%
invested capital= $180m
Need to take the $45m of rents/leases not included in EBIT (inbthecI part)
So 75-45=30 less tax say 20 over your 180 gives 11%
That’s how I see it
Need to take the $45m of rents/leases not included in EBIT (inbthecI part)
So 75-45=30 less tax say 20 over your 180 gives 11%
That’s how I see it
Ah yes, thanks
So just over WACC (9.7%) if you assume a 10% cost of equity
winner69
25-08-2023, 03:45 PM
Ah yes, thanks
So just over WACC (9.7%) if you assume a 10% cost of equity
Some would say we should allow for the non-comparables eh and make it look a lot better.
Some would say we should allow for the non-comparables eh and make it look a lot better.
So the business works well enough, I.e doesn’t destroy value
winner69
28-08-2023, 12:10 PM
Ha ha …one always needs to be careful when cutting and pasting or updating past reports
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/417205/401578.pdf
LaserEyeKiwi
28-08-2023, 03:08 PM
Ha ha …one always needs to be careful when cutting and pasting or updating past reports
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/417205/401578.pdf
Errors like this pop up way too frequently with NZX reports, how do these things not get seen by presumably the multiple senior executives that would be reading this document before it gets posted. I guess the answer is obvious.
winner69
05-09-2023, 08:41 AM
Bracken doing better than shareholders ….and heaps more to come
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/417640/402230.pdf
Bracken doing better than shareholders ….and heaps more to come
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/417640/402230.pdf
Another 2m today. With his holding now over 2.8m shares he certainly should be driven to see SP performance.......
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/417951/402644.pdf
winner69
11-09-2023, 11:03 AM
Another 2m today. With his holding now over 2.8m shares he certainly should be driven to see SP performance.......
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/417951/402644.pdf
You’d think so but then they didn’t cost him anything so motivation might not be what it could be.
You’d think so but then they didn’t cost him anything so motivation might not be what it could be.
yes true but $4m free money is better than $2.8m free money lol. Come on Daniel you can do it
Sideshow Bob
14-11-2023, 02:45 PM
AGM Presos
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/421639/407162.pdf
"There is no doubt that retail conditions have continued to be very challenging in all markets, as the groupcycles record Q1 sales in the prior year.
For the first nineteen weeks of FY24, Group sales (including Bevilles) are up 2% on prior year, and up 26%on FY22. For the core Michael Hill brand, sales have continued the recent trend and are down on the recordstart to FY23, however are up 13% on FY22 and up 15% on pre-pandemic trade in FY19.
Group gross margin has continued to be under pressure, with sustained elevated diamond and gold pricingand dampened consumer confidence due to economic challenges, leading to greater promotional activityacross all retail categories and markets."
blackcap
14-11-2023, 02:51 PM
You’d think so but then they didn’t cost him anything so motivation might not be what it could be.
I would concur with that. I spoke with Daniel a few days ago. He certainly is charming. I hope as a shareholder that he would be motivated to move the company in the right direction and get the SP up. That said, retail is tough at the moment. Not sure how he is achieving Long term hurdles (to get the shares) with where the SP is tracking.
winner69
14-11-2023, 03:04 PM
Summary of first 19 weeks after taking out the glowing bits …….
Group sales (including Bevilles) are up 2% on prior year, …… For the core Michael Hill brand, sales have continued the recent trend and are down on FY23,….and margins remain under pressure
Where is the bottom here?
85 cents too good to be true?
MHJ has always been good to me. Keen buy back in but the chart looks terrible. Jarden says div yield is 11%
winner69
28-11-2023, 11:05 AM
Where is the bottom here?
85 cents too good to be true?
MHJ has always been good to me. Keen buy back in but the chart looks terrible. Jarden says div yield is 11%
Think chart/price reflects performance
But if good to you before maybe now is good time for it to be good to you again
I’ve lost faith but morbid fascination keeps me watching
Think chart/price reflects performance
But if good to you before maybe now is good time for it to be good to you again
I’ve lost faith but morbid fascination keeps me watching
Lost faith in what? Like the business model or the acquisition and store rollout of Bevilles?
Or you mean this is a cyclical and dont want to know it at this stage in the cycle? But faith returns once its bottomed
winner69
28-11-2023, 12:18 PM
Lost faith in what? Like the business model or the acquisition and store rollout of Bevilles?
Or you mean this is a cyclical and dont want to know it at this stage in the cycle? But faith returns once its bottomed
Probably all those things apply …in spite of their sparkling rhetoric the numbers don’t stack up
Maybe in as few years time things will be different …but that was said a few years ago as well
Getting some love from market in the last week or so.
clearasmud
21-12-2023, 04:06 PM
Getting some love from market in the last week or so.
Likely the low is in.
Currently a mismatch between the asx and nzx.
Selling at 93.5c nzd and 93.5caud.
The recent chart of MHJ is whack.
Why the SP went to $1 i dont know,,
Will be interesting to see what it does in the coming months. I assume drift back lower
winner69
15-01-2024, 03:50 PM
The recent chart of MHJ is whack.
Why the SP went to $1 i dont know,,
Will be interesting to see what it does in the coming months. I assume drift back lower
Could be an update this week
That’ll be exciting one way or other
Share price 120’s or 80’s
winner69
15-01-2024, 05:03 PM
Suppose they don’t have much cash left to do another share buyback ….last one helped the share price lol
MHJ did very well out of the revenge spend mania post covid lockdowns. At one point had over $100m cash on the balance sheet- not bad for a $365m market cap company. They used the cash to buy another business with great future growth, buy back a bunch of shares and pay out larger dividends.
Compare to other retailers like WHS who also did very well coming out of covid and all they have done is squandered money on the market and miss manage T7.
MHJ may not have got the share buy back price completely right but overall they spent their winnings far better than most. I don’t hold but will again another day, when the time is right
winner69
16-01-2024, 11:22 AM
DMX Asset Management not that excited about MHJ but still holding
I think Rawz works for them lol
Big fan of DMX! They were late to the party on MHJ and now have to hold through the bottom of the cycle. whoops
winner69
17-01-2024, 03:41 PM
Big fan of DMX! They were late to the party on MHJ and now have to hold through the bottom of the cycle. whoops
You into Kinatico then
You into Kinatico then
No didnt like it, but am into FINDI :t_up:
percy
19-01-2024, 10:04 AM
DMX Asset Management not that excited about MHJ but still holding
I think Rawz works for them lol
DMX were right.Tough trading.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/424993/411178.pdf
worth recalling this half will include contribution from their brevilles (australian) acquisition, relative to the same period last year which did not. although to be fair, I never fully understand the basis of their 'update' earnings - they are normalised to infinity a bit of effort to recy back to stat figures.
850man
19-01-2024, 10:24 AM
DMX were right.Tough trading.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/424993/411178.pdf
Not an unexpected position. NZ are being squeezed by the RBNZ to reduce spending, jewellery has to be right up there in the non-essentials list. Aussie well ahead but their country not in recession or struggling to tame inflation. This could bode well for the likes of HLG and their Aussie business
Not an unexpected position. NZ are being squeezed by the RBNZ to reduce spending, jewellery has to be right up there in the non-essentials list. Aussie well ahead but their country not in recession or struggling to tame inflation. This could bode well for the likes of HLG and their Aussie business
aussie sales are ahead simply because they acquired brevilles in australia.
DMX were right.Tough trading.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/424993/411178.pdf
Thats a rough update. But nobody can really be surprised that Jewlery is struggling during a cost of living crisis.
How did DMX even end up in this stock??? MHJ is a mature cyclical. I thought they were supposed to target micro caps doing stuff, like growth lol.
winner69
19-01-2024, 10:32 AM
worth recalling this half will include contribution from their brevilles (australian) acquisition, relative to the same period last year which did not. although to be fair, I never fully understand the basis of their 'update' earnings - they are normalised to infinity a bit of effort to recy back to stat figures.
Wonder if we will ever see what Beville says are.
Oz sales up $19m ….when they acquired Beville they mention something like $50m annual sales
Would have to assume Michael Hill sales down ib Oz as well as NZ
winner69
19-01-2024, 10:36 AM
Comparable EBIT likely to be 30m to 33m
Last year was 54m ….that’s a huge hit …assuming comparable this year iis defined same was as last year.
Good to see getting rid of some expensive HQ people
winner69
19-01-2024, 10:43 AM
Gross Margin 61% v 65% last year ….wonder how much was promo pricing?
Wonder if we will ever see what brevilles says are.
Oz sales up $19m ….when they acquired Breville they mention something like $50m annual sales
Would have to assume Michael Hill sales down ib Oz as well as NZ
Not sure - in FY23 it was tucked into the Australian segment results within the notes to the financials - but as it was only owned for 4 weeks of FY23 not surprising. Proper disclosure would see it broken out as its own segment in FY24 and onwards but that could be asking too much.
Bevilles is/was a $65m turnover / $8m EBITDA per annum business.
Core MHJ stores in australia shrunk by 5 during the 26 week period to 31 dec 23.
They did say at the time of the acquisition that some new Breville stores were to replace existing MHJ stores.
In todays update they didn't mention if this occurred with the new openings/closing mix. Wonder if this is the case.
Total store count should gradually increase over the next few years one would expect
percy
22-01-2024, 08:51 AM
https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/e8CfAbmY1jVzCQtDLYkCyA/6EQHq6fShJqlx4PtPwk2RQ
winner69
22-01-2024, 09:02 AM
https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/e8CfAbmY1jVzCQtDLYkCyA/6EQHq6fShJqlx4PtPwk2RQ
Pretty dire headline says it all
Michael Hill Jewellers closes stores, sacks staff as profit nosedives
Hard to see them making much profit FY24 …….maybe npat $15m to $20m …..say eps of 5-6 cents
Maybe a cyclical stock but if it is the company always seems a way to disappoint
LaserEyeKiwi
22-01-2024, 09:10 AM
Pretty dire headline says it all
Michael Hill Jewellers closes stores, sacks staff as profit nosedives
Hard to see them making much profit FY24 …….maybe npat $15m to $20m …..say eps of 5-6 cents
Maybe a cyclical stock but if it is the company always seems a way to disappoint
$15-20m NPAT - are you talking for the H1 or FY??
winner69
22-01-2024, 09:23 AM
$15-20m NPAT - are you talking for the H1 or FY??
Full year …just my quick sums
May about $20m is better guess
Last 12 months Comparable EBIT about $36m …..can’t see things getting better through to June
I'm just very skeptical of the Breville's acquisition.
4 new Beville's stores in Australia in the six months, up from 26. So 15% store count growth in a single half. In the same period 5 under-performing Michael Hill stores were closed in Australia. A detailed breakdown of this store mix would be very interesting to see as, at a glance, it does seem like cannibalisation.
Seems management intend to follow through on the plan to 3-4x the Beville's store count by FY28 (80-100), in a macro environment where LFL AU store sales are probably run-rating at negative mid to high single digit %s (and likely getting worse?). Let's not forget Beville's is no crown jewel and had its own troubles 10 years ago (went into administration after a change to the store footprint strategy https://www.jewellermagazine.com/Article/4449/Bevilles-opens-first-new-store-since-collapse).
For me, at least a positive in that update was slight growth in Canada.
percy
01-02-2024, 05:19 PM
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/425631/411951.pdf
How would it come to this.?
4 year's packaging?
winner69
26-02-2024, 10:52 AM
Lots of pages but no mention of real profit, like NPAT
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/426845/413423.pdf
winner69
26-02-2024, 11:00 AM
Found it …NPAT was $15.394m ….down 59% on pcp
Future looking good though
MHJ doing it very tough. Wonder how low SP will go during this cycle
winner69
26-02-2024, 11:10 AM
Weren’t even cash flow +ve ….operating - $1.7m outflow allowing for rents and capex of $17.0m
But still paying divies
Weren’t even cash flow +ve ….operating - $1.7m outflow allowing for rents and capex of $17.0m
But still paying divies
Yes they will need to be careful not to load too much debt onto the balance sheet.
Margins down 400bp from post covid peak.
Tough tough trading.
Would rather own MHJ than WHS or KMD put it that way.
Retailer rankings- best top, worst last:
TRA
BGP
2CC
HLG
MHJ
BRW
KMD
WHS
whatsup
26-02-2024, 11:37 AM
Yes they will need to be careful not to load too much debt onto the balance sheet.
Margins down 400bp from post covid peak.
Tough tough trading.
Would rather own MHJ than WHS or KMD put it that way.
Retailer rankings- best top, worst last:
TRA
BGP
2CC
HLG
MHJ
BRW
KMD
WHS
Are the chickens coming home to roost after all these years ?
Thought this lot were fair screaming along creaming it .. aside from Kiwi Ramraid central which was the
blight on top of the job ;)
WTF went wrong so fast for things to suddenly turn to sh*t so badly ? ;)
Are the chickens coming home to roost after all these years ?
It's the season to paint things Bad as - with as much in Losses & Red Ink as conveniently possible
Dig through the drawer for anything that needs to show some impairment or write downs
Tough times , high interest rates .. don't really want to cough up too much in Div's in volatile times
Dont worry about the sucker stakeholders out there .. the smart ones have probably already loaded
up high on generous Term Deposit rates anyway to be too much bothered with equities ;)
winner69
26-02-2024, 02:50 PM
Canada still seems a bit of a dog for them …..another global expansion failure?
Funny you posted the exact 2 things I was looking for. It took me ages to find the NPAT - I ended up looking at the HY accounts to find it. And when you deduct lease payments from operating cashflows.....you know the rest.
Lots of pages but no mention of real profit, like NPAT
Found it …NPAT was $15.394m ….down 59% on pcp
Weren’t even cash flow +ve ….operating - $1.7m outflow allowing for rents
I like that you posted this:
Future looking good though
I'm starting to think some (all?) companies actually believe their own spin....given the numbers of times you have posted that I am convinced it is with your tongue planted firmly in your cheek. Not just MHJ but every other thread where I see this comment. Trying to not be cynical but it's hard to know what to believe.....even from those closest to the business operations.
Waltzing
26-02-2024, 10:41 PM
Underlying EBIT is probably a better long term stats as other stuff can come and go.
Gold is slated to stay elevated for the next 24 months...
Inflation for sure means this one will be beached till people feel they can play in the sun again..
whatsup
27-02-2024, 09:35 AM
B!oody RAM RAIDS have taken its toll, MHJ has spent $4 mil in security of its stores, sign of the times, judges soft of rat bags , sad and sorry country where the great unwashed rule.
SP stuffed now. Big downtrend. Company struggling in climate (like all retailers). Wonder how low it will go
winner69
28-02-2024, 02:47 PM
SP stuffed now. Big downtrend. Company struggling in climate (like all retailers). Wonder how low it will go
Asked myself whether MHJ have ever been good …ever lived up to the hype they churn out.
Performance wise over the last 10 years answer is NO
Share price wise only 2020 through 2021 ……when you made a killing ……well done, even if it was luck
You going to havecanother go? Hoping the market will get excited força year or so before the inevitable let down.
Asked myself whether MHJ have ever been good …ever lived up to the hype they churn out.
Performance wise over the last 10 years answer is NO
Share price wise only 2020 through 2021 ……when you made a killing ……well done, even if it was luck
You going to havecanother go? Hoping the market will get excited força year or so before the inevitable let down.
They did alright recently with their covid windfalls. Made lots of cash.. bought some shares back, paid some divs, bought a business even.
They didnt completely pi$$ it into the wind like say WHS did with the market and T7 blowing up.
MHJ will always be on the watch list for another lucky 2020-2021 period. No doubt it will come around again. MHJ been in business coming up 40 years. Just need to be patient and watch
limmy
28-02-2024, 03:05 PM
Asked myself whether MHJ have ever been good …ever lived up to the hype they churn out.
Performance wise over the last 10 years answer is NO
Share price wise only 2020 through 2021 ……when you made a killing ……well done, even if it was luck
You going to havecanother go? Hoping the market will get excited força year or so before the inevitable let down.
They were very good prior to that when they were expanding into Australia and subsequently into Canada.
winner69
28-02-2024, 03:10 PM
They did alright recently with their covid windfalls. Made lots of cash.. bought some shares back, paid some divs, bought a business even.
They didnt completely pi$$ it into the wind like say WHS did with the market and T7 blowing up.
MHJ will always be on the watch list for another lucky 2020-2021 period. No doubt it will come around again. MHJ been in business coming up 40 years. Just need to be patient and watch
That was a good trade …you really a trader eh as opposed to an investor
I like your approach though …cheap companies with good news are the ones and a far better bet than those who keep churning out bad news
Retail is a tough business. How often do you hear about these big brand names going into liquidation? Usually because they dont pivot to the new trends. online, click and collect, virtual shopping etc.
Like when Blockbuster had serious competition from netflix it diudnt pivot it instead tried to defend its current model by selling candy in their stores....
MHJ to their credit have shrunk their brick and mortar store footprint and expanded their online business.
Additionally they opened up new brands like Medley to get their share of the fake jewelry sector.
MHJ been around awhile like i say and i feel like they will survive and punters will get the chance to make heaps of money again on this cyclical
That was a good trade …you really a trader eh as opposed to an investor
I like your approach though …cheap companies with good news are the ones and a far better bet than those who keep churning out bad news
No lol. I invested for the big dividends from strong cashflows and i collected them. Then the situation changed so i exit :)
Remember the Deferred dividend payment episode out of this mob ? ;)
Waltzing
29-02-2024, 07:21 PM
This stock will probably always be a trade ... you need some fun stocks in a market...
"For the first seven weeks of FY24H2, Group sales(including Bevilles) are up 9.5% on prior year, with theMichael Hill Australia retail business driving theimprovement in performance against FY24H1:• Australian segment sales (including Bevilles) +19.6%• New Zealand segment sales -9.2%• Canadian segment sales -0.9%• External transactional sales data demonstrates that boththe Group and the Michael Hill brand continue to takemarket share"
looks like Rob F has taken the oppo to go around with a knife and get ride the of middle management and the dead wood....
move out of the new building and move into a warehouse...
NZ -9.2 ....
Nice concept store ... but think that to cut costs the team moves into a loft....
14974
Back to 50-60c levels soon ? :)
On most recent Div & Performances announcements those sort of levels must be within reach again
Waltzing
01-03-2024, 07:34 AM
They certainly got smashed by the "Temp inflation" ...
be very interesting to see the next half year result....
You dont often get such a trading oppo... cheap share that bounces about ....
Love the new store look but Rob will need to take the knife to the operation and get those expenses under control...
Looks like someone got into the office and cleaned out some desks....
sometimes a smashing is an opportunity for some chairs to be put away....
Rob F wont want to be sitting on a smashing ..
Gold hasnt doubled...
NZ result is a shocker and really what does it say about the country...
Maybe they should shut more stores in NZ and concentrate on AUS...
They also need to get that balance sheet under control...
Could be 2026 before you see the results of the AUS economy. NZ is a FRAGILE economy according to LUX ON ...
MH should take the knife to NZ ..
Great short term trade oppo when and if inflation and gold swings in there favour.
Notice the long term Gold chart... it isnt down.
percy
01-03-2024, 07:44 AM
In the past year MHJ's share price has gone from $1.14 down to 73 cents.ie a drop of 36%.
However at the cheap end of The Malls LOV's share price has increased 33.33% from $24.00 to $32.00.
Waltzing
01-03-2024, 02:28 PM
Yes LOV has out performed .. and says the knife needs to come out as this should be shock to the board...
lets hope so as NZX needs every stock it can get to do something profitable business...
else its just join the AUSSI dollar and take up the offer in the AUS constitution if its still here... section 6...
14975
They certainly got smashed by the "Temp inflation" ...
be very interesting to see the next half year result....
You dont often get such a trading oppo... cheap share that bounces about ....
Love the new store look but Rob will need to take the knife to the operation and get those expenses under control...
Looks like someone got into the office and cleaned out some desks....
sometimes a smashing is an opportunity for some chairs to be put away....
Rob F wont want to be sitting on a smashing ..
Gold hasnt doubled...
NZ result is a shocker and really what does it say about the country...
Maybe they should shut more stores in NZ and concentrate on AUS...
They also need to get that balance sheet under control...
Could be 2026 before you see the results of the AUS economy. NZ is a FRAGILE economy according to LUX ON ...
MH should take the knife to NZ ..
Great short term trade oppo when and if inflation and gold swings in there favour.
Notice the long term Gold chart... it isnt down.
Wonder if the buyers of Torpedo 7 want to add a Jewellry & Rings chain to their bundle ? ;)
With all the smoke cannons onboard it might be $10 a shop rather than a buck to take the lot away ;)
Waltzing
02-03-2024, 10:40 AM
Sometime a good smashing is healthy. dont see that store as being anything but a one off...
NZ is a wild west country now ... gate up... get your security camera and check your security firm isnt run by criminals....
AUS could be where MHJ goes and might as well delist from NZ...
They seem to be an AUS company now... NZ is just a sub branch and probably needs to lose at least 6 stores over time....
If they can hold their own in AUS and Canada then so be it and cut head office to the bone...
WHS is a much bigger problem then this one....
WHS had to many moving parts...
NZ economy is in a Roger D moment but doesnt know it...
Public debt is where its at and WITH ALL THE OFF BALANCE SHEET debt does anyone know what it is..
winner69
04-03-2024, 08:13 AM
No more Silvermoon..gone broke
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/popular-jewellery-store-silvermoon-goes-into-liquidation/NJ2MCUZYNZHDPPAXJWPAEOWKTE/
68 cents wow. last time i bought at these levels i did very well. However I dont think buying now is a very good idea....
No way did these guys just announce a big downgrade at 5:20pm on a Friday, and only on the ASX...
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02808088-2A1523942
blackcap
18-05-2024, 05:33 AM
No way did these guys just announce a big downgrade at 5:20pm on a Friday, and only on the ASX...
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02808088-2A1523942
They certainly did. Very cynical if you ask me. What pricing level will this see the stock go down to one wonders?
Flugenbear
18-05-2024, 06:01 AM
Yeah, just seems dodgy to release a negative announcement in this manner.
Hoping all us gullible shareholders are down at the pub spending our last dividend.
Wow a $10m loss for Q3.
Retail is stuffed here and Aus
SP is in a dire downtrend already, this will continue the pressure
winner69
18-05-2024, 07:41 AM
Yeah, just seems dodgy to release a negative announcement in this manner.
Hoping all us gullible shareholders are down at the pub spending our last dividend.
Yep the old bad news late Friday and hope nobody will notice trick
percy
18-05-2024, 07:59 AM
Yep the old bad news late Friday and hope nobody will notice trick
Well it worked for me.I missed it.
A shocker.
"Actions have been taken to reduce costs across the business including inventory, corporate
overheads, underperforming stores and further optimisation of store rostering."
I guess the number of underperforming stores has increased.
I do not hold,however a Trust I am a trustee of still holds LOV.
winner69
18-05-2024, 08:42 AM
Heading to a full year LOSS
Might be tough market conditions but Michael Hill another old time retailer whose lost their way ….hard to see them ever being ‘great’ again …and ill conceived move into Canada and that Beville acquisition along with the move into a flash new HQ all bad moves.
But no doubt many will say just a glitch and Michael Hill be be great again …eh Rawz
winner69
18-05-2024, 08:45 AM
Well it worked for me.I missed it.
A shocker.
"Actions have been taken to reduce costs across the business including inventory, corporate
overheads, underperforming stores and further optimisation of store rostering."
I guess the number of underperforming stores has increased.
I do not hold,however a Trust I am a trustee of still holds LOV.
Amazing how Lovisa have performed last few yearsceh Percy
Heading to a full year LOSS
Might be tough market conditions but Michael Hill another old time retailer whose lost their way ….hard to see them ever being ‘great’ again …and ill conceived move into Canada and that Beville acquisition along with the move into a flash new HQ all bad moves.
But no doubt many will say just a glitch and Michael Hill be be great again …eh Rawz
Haha yes Winner, keep it on the watchlist for FY26/27
Canada actually the standout performer right now
They shouldn’t have spent all their cash on the buyback. How nice would everyone feel if they had $20m cash on the balance sheet just sitting there as a guardian protecting them from this downturn.
percy
18-05-2024, 09:04 AM
Amazing how Lovisa have performed last few yearsceh Percy
Yes an amazing performance.
winner69
18-05-2024, 09:10 AM
Haha yes Winner, keep it on the watchlist for FY26/27
Canada actually the standout performer right now
They shouldn’t have spent all their cash on the buyback. How nice would everyone feel if they had $20m cash on the balance sheet just sitting there as a guardian protecting them from this downturn.
Bracken might be joining the others in the CEO departure lounge soon.
Waltzing
18-05-2024, 09:39 AM
Group Sales- For the first 45-weeks of FY24, Group sales (including Bevilles) were up 4.7% on LY, and the sales for the core Michael Hill brand were still negative to LY.
Revenue for retail operations FY24H1 FY24YTD
to Wk26 toWk45
Segment figures in local currency Australia segment 10.2% 12.3%
New Zealand segment -10.3% -11.1%
Canada segment 0.5% -0.4%
Total sales 4.0% 4.7%
• Australia -The segment shows positive sales for both Hl and YTD, however this growth is driven by the inclusion of the Bevilles brand in FY24 only. Sales performance in the core Michael Hill brand has improved marginally compared to the first half, but remains negative to last year. The Bevilles brand has also not met sales expectations and has been further impacted by the relocation announcement and systems integration process.
• New Zealand -The segment remains our most challenged with deeper macroeconomic pressures significantly impacting consumer behaviour and discretionary spend. The continued negative sales results are also driven by a decline in consumer credit approval rates across the country and an increase in serious retail crime events impacting a number of our stores.
• canada -This continues to be our best performing segment, broadly flat on a record prior year.
• Gross margin-In line with the first half, gross margin remains suppressed due to sustained higher input costs and record gold pricing. All markets continue to experience aggressive promotionally led retail trading conditions, which is also contributing to margin pressure.
• Earnings impact -Given the compressed sales and continued gross margin decline, previously reported first half earnings have been eroded by an EBIT loss of N$10m for FY24Q3.
winner69
18-05-2024, 10:12 AM
They gave everybody hope when they said in Feb that first 7 weeks of second half sales were up 9.5% on pcp
Some 6 weeks on and things seem pretty dire and that 9.5% is no more
Shame they stopped quarterly reporting $ numbers …..we could see what +9.5% turned outubro be
winner69
18-05-2024, 10:52 AM
Golden boy Rob Fyfe joined Board in 2014 ….some 10 years ago
MHJ revenues back then about $500m ….now about $680m … up about 35% in 10 years not too bad eh
NPAT back then was $25m … since then from 2015 NPAT has been 28m, 21m, 34m, 5m, 17m, 3m, 49m, 52m, 38m and this year maybe 10m at best . Somewhat ironic boom years were pandemic years 2021 and 2022
Otherwise you’d have to say that during the time that Rob has had a say in things profit trends have been nothing tonwrite home about ….or haven’t gone to what the hype over the years has suggested
Maybe Rob wasn’t the golden boy after all …. the Halo Effect is an interesting study
They need an economics lesson; always seem to bet on a quick flip in the economy towards recovery. Recessions don't last for one quarter... Done it again in this release.
Update:
"Positive sales momentum had been expected through the second half in line with anticipated improvements in consumer
sentiment and economic conditions. Unfortunately this has not materialised."
Outlook:
“There is no doubt that consumer discretionary spend, and the fine jewellery category in particular, remain under pressure
due to macroeconomic forces. Higher interest rates are leading to a sustained and prolonged decline in consumer spending.
Looking forward, as interest rates moderate, we anticipate sales and margin recovery.”
The AFR article 9 days ago was perhaps another warning sign:
"Michael Hill’s luxury play"
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/leaders/the-gap-below-cartier-and-tiffany-michael-hill-s-luxury-play-20240503-p5fosf
Gerald
18-05-2024, 06:07 PM
The AFR article 9 days ago was perhaps another warning sign:
"Michael Hill’s luxury play"
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/leaders/the-gap-below-cartier-and-tiffany-michael-hill-s-luxury-play-20240503-p5fosf
“We are absolutely undervalued, the business is strong, while we’re in a challenging environment, the category is under a lot more pressure than we are."
Might be going to get a whole lot more undervalued.
winner69
18-05-2024, 06:24 PM
The AFR article 9 days ago was perhaps another warning sign:
"Michael Hill’s luxury play"
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/leaders/the-gap-below-cartier-and-tiffany-michael-hill-s-luxury-play-20240503-p5fosf
That’s a very good article
Be interesting to monitor progress along this journey and look back at this in a few yesrs time.
Withholding due respect to Bracken I remain unconvinced that this will work out
winner69
19-05-2024, 08:38 AM
“We are absolutely undervalued, the business is strong, while we’re in a challenging environment, the category is under a lot more pressure than we are."
Might be going to get a whole lot more undervalued.
Another quote ..from Michael
“A business normally has about 30, 40 years and then it’s finished. If you look through history at a lot of the names when I grew up, the department stores, they’ve all gone, finished. In any business, unless it’s a major brand, [this change] is probably the only way that it can last forever, so that’s the way to go.”
Big gamble ….wonder how big this market gap is …the space between the super rich and the not so rich
Sideshow Bob
20-05-2024, 08:54 AM
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431292
Michael Hill International Limited (ASX/NZX: MHJ) provides a trading update for the 45-week period ended 12 May 2024.
Positive sales momentum had been expected through the second half in line with anticipated improvements in consumersentiment and economic conditions. Unfortunately this has not materialised, with second half sales performance broadly inline with the first half, and margin still under pressure.
• Group Sales – For the first 45-weeks of FY24, Group sales (including Bevilles) were up 4.7% on LY, and the sales for thecore Michael Hill brand were still negative to LY.FY24H1to Wk26FY24YTDto Wk45Revenue for retail operations % Var to LY % Var to LYSegment figures in local currencyAustralia segment AUD 10.2% 12.3%New Zealand segment NZD -10.3% -11.1%Canada segment CAD 0.5% -0.4%Total sales AUD 4.0% 4.7%
• Australia – The segment shows positive sales for both H1 and YTD, however this growth is driven by the inclusion of theBevilles brand in FY24 only. Sales performance in the core Michael Hill brand has improved marginally compared to thefirst half, but remains negative to last year. The Bevilles brand has also not met sales expectations and has been furtherimpacted by the relocation announcement and systems integration process.
• New Zealand – The segment remains our most challenged with deeper macroeconomic pressures significantly impactingconsumer behaviour and discretionary spend. The continued negative sales results are also driven by a decline inconsumer credit approval rates across the country and an increase in serious retail crime events impacting a number ofour stores.• Canada – This continues to be our best performing segment, broadly flat on a record prior year.
• Gross margin – In line with the first half, gross margin remains suppressed due to sustained higher input costs and recordgold pricing. All markets continue to experience aggressive promotionally led retail trading conditions, which is alsocontributing to margin pressure
.• Earnings impact – Given the compressed sales and continued gross margin decline, previously reported first half earningshave been eroded by an EBIT loss of ~$10m for FY24Q3.As the business navigates the prolonged impact of cost-of-living pressures on consumer sentiment, management areactivating initiatives to stimulate sales and restore margin. There is also a heightened focus on managing operational costsand capital expenditure. Actions have been taken to reduce costs across the business including inventory, corporateoverheads, underperforming stores and further optimisation of store rostering.
Commenting on the result, Managing Director and CEO of Michael Hill International Limited, Daniel Bracken said:“There is no doubt that consumer discretionary spend, and the fine jewellery category in particular, remain under pressuredue to macroeconomic forces. Higher interest rates are leading to a sustained and prolonged decline in consumer spending.Looking forward, as interest rates moderate, we anticipate sales and margin recovery.”
Waltzing
20-05-2024, 09:12 AM
MHJ ballroom silver cuff links still going well after 20 years... purchased in Auckland.
All depends then on the product and design team of the day... well.
"Big gamble ….wonder how big this market gap is …the space between the super rich and the not so rich"
probably bigger than one images as the trickle down does not go far...
Super rich always getting richer on expansion of money supply..
Just this is a contraction period... This will test there accounting department and the design and sales team.
Daniel must be getting a lesson in the basic of a recession and he bought some up above 66..
But remember the FED said temporary inflation.....
whose going to report a loss in retail next....
SHAREGUY has made some comments over on th other channel regarding Auckland economy.
LaserEyeKiwi
20-05-2024, 09:45 AM
Oof - NZ/Aus High price discretionary item retail market being absolutely destroyed by those high mortgage rates now that essentially everyone has now had their mortgages roll over to 7%+ rates.
Toddy
20-05-2024, 10:50 AM
Oof - NZ/Aus High price discretionary item retail market being absolutely destroyed by those high mortgage rates now that essentially everyone has now had their mortgages roll over to 7%+ rates.
Excellent news then. That's the entire point of higher interest rates.
LaserEyeKiwi
20-05-2024, 11:17 AM
Excellent news then. That's the entire point of higher interest rates.
Decreasing the rate of inflation of course is the entire point of higher interest rates, not specifically crippling high price discretionary retail, which makes up a small part of the basket of goods and services that determine the inflation rate.
High interest rates actually currently pushing up prices of core essential items in the basket unfortunately, as the increased cost of capital is being passed through to consumers/businesses in the form of higher prices for many goods and services that are provided by entities with high debt loads.
Keep hearing gold and silver this and that. Prices must be high. Cant be good for MHJ
Toddy
20-05-2024, 11:39 AM
Keep hearing gold and silver this and that. Prices must be high. Cant be good for MHJ
At what gold price does the MHJ business model not work anymore.
Worth thinking and talking about. Because there has to be a price point where the average customer walks.
percy
20-05-2024, 11:50 AM
At what gold price does the MHJ business model not work anymore.
Worth thinking and talking about. Because there has to be a price point where the average customer walks.
Going from their update it appears it has already gone over the price NZ customers will pay.
Appears they are walking to Lovisa stores.
PS.I note MHJ's share price has halved in the past year,while LOV's has more than doubled.
LaserEyeKiwi
20-05-2024, 12:21 PM
They point out the price of gold being a factor in todays update, but lets be honest though that the margins MHJ has on their products would see gold as one of the smallest components of COGS.
LaserEyeKiwi
20-05-2024, 12:26 PM
MHJ, like all jewelry store chains, are structurally very good when they can leverage their relatively fixed costs (Stores & Staff) to serve a high throughput of customers. The overhead involved in selling to 100 people a day per store is fairly similar to selling to 25 people a day. However there is a hard limit to cover those fixed costs that really starts to hurt once you drop below it.
percy
20-05-2024, 12:36 PM
MHJ, like all jewelry store chains, are structurally very good when they can leverage their relatively fixed costs (Stores & Staff) to serve a high throughput of customers. The overhead involved in selling to 100 people a day per store is fairly similar to selling to 25 people a day. However there is a hard limit to cover those fixed costs that really starts to hurt once you drop below it.
And getting out of expensive leases is another issue.
winner69
20-05-2024, 01:05 PM
LEK ....I assume you got rid of MHJ shares when they were buying them back in the in the 120/130s
You waiting to get back or is a case of never again
LaserEyeKiwi
20-05-2024, 01:40 PM
LEK ....I assume you got rid of MHJ shares when they were buying them back in the in the 120/130s
You waiting to get back or is a case of never again
Had to check, was all the way back in Nov 2022 at $1.35.]
Haven't been following too closely since, but damn that price looking tasty if someone was looking for a long term return.
winner69
13-06-2024, 10:22 AM
What’s happening to the price of diamonds
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/global-price-slump-suggests-diamonds-might-not-be-quite-so-forever/
Toddy
13-06-2024, 10:36 AM
This is good news for MHJ. Kiwis love cheap.
Emm, as for my Tiffany purchases over the years. Not so good.
LaserEyeKiwi
13-06-2024, 10:45 AM
What’s happening to the price of diamonds
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/global-price-slump-suggests-diamonds-might-not-be-quite-so-forever/
Great news - I happily choose lab diamonds over mined every time, the sooner the artificial scarcity that the diamond industry has created over the last century evaporates, the better.
As for MHJ - consumers don’t have any idea what the wholesale price of gemstones are, so I’m hoping this leads to supporting margins.
this from DMX. Bit of a weird investment for them tbh.
More concerningly has been the continued erosion to the operational performance of Michael Hill. This now small position declined a further 33% in May on the back of a negative trading update. The company is suffering from weakening consumer demand, tighter consumer credit availability, the impact of crime on its NZ business& the associated additional security costs, contracting gross margins, and troubles with the integration of the acquired Bevilles business in Australia. This investment’s proving to be a painful reminder of the difficulties of retail in general, but also that the world changes, companies have a lifespan and go through phases of growth, maturity, and unfortunately, decline. We don’t need to make our money back the same way we lost it, but at current levels, we believe the shares are being priced for disaster. We’d previously reduced our position as the company started reporting negatively, and its price erosion has further reduced it to a relatively small holding now. We’re comfortable to give this one some time to see if they can successfully reduce costs and restore a basic level of profitability. Its 40+ year history should be worth something here, and we’re hopeful of at least a partial recovery to our remaining investment.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/michael-hill-jeweller-to-close-whakatane-store-due-to-high-retail-crime/GRO624RXVRBPTBTRDEQF6KOGME/
Michael Hill Jeweller to close Whakatāne store due to high retail crime
could be more of this to follow from other retailers in areas which have similar crime issues
LaserEyeKiwi
15-06-2024, 11:37 PM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/michael-hill-jeweller-to-close-whakatane-store-due-to-high-retail-crime/GRO624RXVRBPTBTRDEQF6KOGME/
Michael Hill Jeweller to close Whakatāne store due to high retail crime
could be more of this to follow from other retailers in areas which have similar crime issues
It’s wild that New Zealand hasn’t been able to adapt to simple crime techniques that have been around for decades overseas. We lived in such a sheltered country, and all it took was some gangs to figure out how to do these simple acts and we have had several years of chaos with pitiful response from the police and political leaders.
Yes a particular cohort of society, primarily younger people not in work education or training have worked out that there is no effective response to crime. Police have been trained to be social workers first and law enforcement second. The judiciary has been particularly unhelpful to the police and public in general by tempering sentences with excessive focus on upbringing and excuses rather than a straight out crime/discouragement position, coupled with pressure from politicians to keep people from being locked up even briefly as a deterrent. No real consequences means more of the same.
LaserEyeKiwi
19-07-2024, 09:24 AM
Trading update:
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/434731/attachment/423008/434731-423008.pdf
Looks actually positive, wasn't expecting that.
Michael Hill International Limited (ASX/NZX: MHJ) is pleased to provide a trading update for the 52-week year ended
30 June 2024.
Challenging retail trading conditions have continued throughout the year, with macroeconomic forces impacting the
discretionary retail sector, and in particular, the fine jewellery category. However, recent trading performance has seen
positive sales momentum across all markets.
KEY POINTS
• Comparable EBIT – In line with analysts’ expectations, the Company anticipates FY24 Group comparable EBIT of
between $14m to $16m.
• Group sales – For the year, Group sales (including Bevilles) were up 3.8% on LY, and second half sales were up 4.9%
on LY, an improvement on our most recent market update. The last seven weeks of FY24 demonstrated positive
momentum across all markets and channels, with Group sales up 6%, and the core Michael Hill brand in Australia
and Canada both achieving positive sales growth compared with the prior comparable period.
• Gross margin and inventory – While trading improved through May and June, there was also a deliberate focus on
clearing inventory to make way for higher margin product in FY25. Gross margin settled at ~60.5% for the year, with
closing inventory levels better than management expectations.
• Digital growth – Digital sales have returned to double digit growth on prior year, with the re-platforming of the
website supporting the relaunch of the elevated Michael Hill brand.
• Capital Management – As a proactive capital management measure, the existing debt facility has been increased by
$40m for the four-month period from 15 September 2024 to support seasonal working capital requirements for
Christmas trade. The FY24 year-end net debt position closed at ~$40m.
• Store portfolio management – In line with our store network strategy, the core Michael Hill brand has continued to
optimise its store network throughout the year, while at the same time expanding the Bevilles’ store network from
26 to 36 stores. The Group finished the year with 300 stores.
Retail Segment Update
Australia: For the year, segment revenue (including Bevilles) increased 10.5% on LY, and increased 12.0% in
H2. There were 171 stores (including 36 Bevilles stores) trading at the end of the year (FY23: 172).
New Zealand: For the year, segment revenue decreased 11.8% on LY, and decreased 12.0% in H2. There were
44 stores trading at the end of the year (FY23: 46).
Canada: For the year, segment revenue increased 0.3% on LY, and increased 1.6% in H2. There were 85 stores
trading at the end of the year (FY23: 86).
Commenting on the result, Managing Director and CEO of Michael Hill International Limited, Daniel Bracken said:
“While challenging economic conditions have persisted across all markets throughout the year, particularly in the fine
jewellery segment, the Group has continued to outperform the category, with a focus on retail fundamentals and
execution of its clearly articulated strategies. Particularly pleasing was the consistent performance of our Canadian
business throughout the year.
“While FY24 was disappointing, and trading conditions are expected to remain challenging, initiatives are underway to
drive sales and productivity, enhance margin, optimise inventory, prioritise and reduce capital expenditure to protect
the balance sheet, and further embed cost conscious discipline across the business.
“As a key milestone of the Michael Hill brand elevation journey, April saw the unveiling of our first global flagship store
at Chadstone in Melbourne showcasing the new brand codes, our first brand ambassador, Miranda Kerr, and a complete
re-platforming of our website. I am extremely proud of the enthusiasm, passion and dedication demonstrated by all our
team involved in the meticulous and considered delivery of such a pivotal moment for the Michael Hill Brand.”
”
15190
LaserEyeKiwi
19-07-2024, 01:49 PM
Market obviously liking the trading update.
winner69
19-07-2024, 03:57 PM
“Particularly pleasing was the consistent performance of our Canadian business throughout the year,” Bracken said.
Canada not a dead duck …but still a drag on Group performance
Mind NZ iis an even lamer duck …wonder how much NZ losses end up as?
LaserEyeKiwi
19-07-2024, 09:47 PM
“Particularly pleasing was the consistent performance of our Canadian business throughout the year,” Bracken said.
Canada not a dead duck …but still a drag on Group performance
Mind NZ iis an even lamer duck …wonder how much NZ losses end up as?
NZ falling to less than 17% of company sales. Not near being a rounding error, but sort of gradually heading that way.
LaserEyeKiwi
22-07-2024, 03:45 PM
MHJ up 50% off its low.
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