CAPE LAMBERT (CFE) 50% capital return

[bung5]

Looking forward to all the news that should come out before the end of the year is going to keep this going up and up until Marampa sale finally sends it flying :D

[evilroyrule]

notice received. CFE to sell stake in DMC for 47 mil, subj to conditions. check out the ann. for complete accuracy. looks like we make 50c today or nxt week. yee haa little doggy

ok. 50 was a bit silly. but at least we have cleared (for now) that 44.5 hurdle

[Corporate]

Actually sold for $83m + royalty. Great result.

Tony is walking the talk. Well done!

[gazprom1]

Actually sold for $83m + royalty. Great result.

Tony is walking the talk. Well done!

Hey Corporate,

Enjoying the market rally??

I think it is a good result but not a home run. Left with a whole lot of shares in another company. Cash deal would have been better. Probably a very good deal for Sage...directorship, options(?), etc. It is just a bit messy and I think the CFE SP reflects that.

Gazprom

[bung5]

Hey Corporate,

Enjoying the market rally??

I think it is a good result but not a home run. Left with a whole lot of shares in another company. Cash deal would have been better. Probably a very good deal for Sage...directorship, options(?), etc. It is just a bit messy and I think the CFE SP reflects that.

Gazprom

In a few months CFE has recoverd what they paid for the DMC and got 25% stake in it plus a royalty that could produce $10 million a year for CFE at full production. Doesn't seem messy to me.

[percy]

The 25% of Stirling CFE end up with will mean CFE control stirling.?If not control at least a big say in things.

[gazprom1]

In a few months CFE has recoverd what they paid for the DMC and got 25% stake in it plus a royalty that could produce $10 million a year for CFE at full production. Doesn't seem messy to me.

Like I said, IMHO I think it is a little messy. A clean deal would have been 100% cash with a royalty (maybe). Remember there was significant transaction costs involved with the DMC takeover. Not sure of the number but material. CFE will not and does not control SMZ so SP could be affected by events outside the control of CFE and therefore impact on the value of CFE's holding. SMZ shares are in escrow for 12months, mining is likely to be years away so on a DCF analysis is not as attractive as it first appears.

Don't misunderstand me, I said it was a good result and they have added value for CFE s/holders.

[JBmurc]

Great result indeed CFE doing what they do best make great profits from good assets -Marampa will be the one that will really re-rate the company 300m+
hoping to here that CFE will receive the 80m MCC payment soon ...No buying back of shares yet

[JBmurc]

---Marampa JORC out mid next week--buyback to start soon after>>>>

Got Bid in place for another 52000@44c CFE taking my hold to 352000 I'm very confident MCC payment will be on it's way before the months out add in the other positives CFE can only go higher from here ( will place another 52000 sell order at 54c looking to make a short term profit)

[Snapper]

From what I understand SMZ has to raise $89 million to finance the deal, so not over the line yet.

[percy]

Article this morning www.theaustralian.com.au business city beat was positive.

[Corporate]

Hey Corporate,

Enjoying the market rally??

I think it is a good result but not a home run. Left with a whole lot of shares in another company. Cash deal would have been better. Probably a very good deal for Sage...directorship, options(?), etc. It is just a bit messy and I think the CFE SP reflects that.

Gazprom

Hey Gaz

I'm happy with the result, but its certainly not a done deal. As you said I would have also preferred a straight up cash deal + royalty with a major... but we can't have everything!

If the deal goes through TS has doubled our money in a very short time frame. Great result!

I really like that he isn't mucking around. Deals are getting done. I think the copper project will be next, then Marampa, then Sapes.

Will flick you a PM at some stage over the weekend. I've had a bit of a look at BUR too.

Cheers,

C

[geezy]

Great news guys, I m really liking the royalty bit although its a bit far away :) but some steady cash flow will provide alot of support for the SP

[bung5]

TS the high roller wants to be a movie producer after he gets CFE over a billion market cap

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/mining-magnate-plans-his-next-role-hollywood-producer/story-e6frg6nf-1225949108880

[JBmurc]

TS the high roller wants to be a movie producer after he gets CFE over a billion market cap

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/mining-magnate-plans-his-next-role-hollywood-producer/story-e6frg6nf-1225949108880

A Billion will be the first target (is my first profit taking target) all depends on how the deals an Iron ore,copper etc prices go from here

[Gasbox]

Maiden JORC announcement out, Lifted from WA Business News,


"Cape Lambert Resources has announced a maiden JORC compliant inferred mineral resource at its Marampa project in Sierra Leone of 197 million tonnes at 28.5 per cent iron.

In a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange, Cape Lambert said that it is continuing to work towards a possible late 2012 production start up.

"This is a landmark moment for the development of the Marampa Project," said Cape Lambert chairman Tony Sage.

"We have made rapid progress in the past twelve months and with five rigs now drilling at site, we expect to accelerate the timing of our first resource update, scheduled for the March 2011 quarter, at which time the bulk of the rail and port infrastructure refurbishment associated with the project will be completed."

"With this substantial maiden JORC resource complete, we will now be able to finalise a scoping study looking at a proposed initial development rate of 2-5 Mtpa, from late 2012, with the maiden JORC resource providing for a mine life in the order of 20 years at 2 Mtpa concentrate production, with significant resource growth to follow," he said."



Looking for upgrades as the next step, this JORC covers only 2/8 of the ore prospects at Marampa so considerable upgrades look likely with futher drilling. 5 drill rigs currently operating at Marampa with updated resources results planned for March Quarter 11. TS in the announcement mentioned metallurgical test work has shown that Marampa which is a Hematite resource could be upgraded to sinter fines or blast furnace pellet feed. Things starting to get interesting again for CFE, should see futher strength in the SP based on the news flow.

[JBmurc]

Yeah looing forward to seeing the $80mill sorted with MCC an the buyback start as I'm sure many investors would like before loading up

[geezy]

Share buy back very much in action, this should provide a strong support at 0.44

[Gasbox]

Share buy back very much in action, this should provide a strong support at 0.44

Yeah was that it starting this morning with all those volumes of exactly the same size, havent seen any news out but volume and price on a negative/flat market day suggesting it has begun.

[bung5]

They are sure doing the buy back at a fast pace. 2.4 million shares bought yesterday alone. Must be trying to get as many bought up before they sell Marampa and the share price really takes off.

[COLIN]

They are sure doing the buy back at a fast pace. 2.4 million shares bought yesterday alone. Must be trying to get as many bought up before they sell Marampa and the share price really takes off.

Let's hope this frenetic buy-back activity is not merely propping up the share price artificially!

(There's always got to be a spoilsport, somewhere!)

[JBmurc]

worth a watch Tony interview on CNBC --CFE is so very cheap buyback soaking up the weak holders 50mill ords to go

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1649366662&play=1

[geezy]

will like to monitor after the share buy back completes

[Caesius]

Aggressive buy backs and the SP doesn't move. Does not look good. Makes me wonder what will happen after the buy back is completed. IMHO best case scenario is further stagnation.

Then again, I'm a pessimist.

Disc: Own but thinking strongly about selling.

[JBmurc]

Have you guys watched the CNBC link I posted ---I soon learnt to follow the fundenmentals an not to understand why the market values one share more than or less than it should as nine times out of ten the F/A an the track record soon wakes the market into a re-rate CFE have shown mutiable times to be able to sell major assets for very tidy profits an a great buyer of cheap assets soon we should see a major deal -Ironore- re-rate CFE to new all time highs worth waiting for IMHO even if it to early next year

[evilroyrule]

Aggressive buy backs and the SP doesn't move. Does not look good. Makes me wonder what will happen after the buy back is completed. IMHO best case scenario is further stagnation.

Then again, I'm a pessimist.

Disc: Own but thinking strongly about selling.

i agree on all fronts. onlt positive is we are fairly protected from red days, but that aside same old. waiting, waiting....wanting

[COLIN]

Aggressive buy backs and the SP doesn't move. Does not look good. Makes me wonder what will happen after the buy back is completed. IMHO best case scenario is further stagnation.

Then again, I'm a pessimist.

Disc: Own but thinking strongly about selling.

I could have written that!

If this share is so good, then why aren't investors running it up? I've been pondering the thought for some time that there's got to be some fish-hook somewhere.

[Penfold]

I could have written that!

If this share is so good, then why aren't investors running it up? I've been pondering the thought for some time that there's got to be some fish-hook somewhere.


The problem seems pretty simple to me. How do you value their holdings? The only way is when a buyer stumps up cash for one. And then you still can't value the rest. And all this isn't helped by the fact the times are so turbulent, and the deals are rarely as straight-forward as cash up front.

CFE makes up 8% or so of my portfolio now. I may not be able to accurately value it, but it seems to be worth a lot more than the market values it. Little debt and savvy operators that have proved time and again they add value and pass these holdings on to other investors for profit.

I accept the points about the share buy-back. The cash would surely be better used to buy more under-valued holdings. But if there is little out there to buy, I would prefer the cash be used in this way, as opposed to sending it to me in a cheque that I would have to pay tax on.

[JBmurc]

I could have written that!

If this share is so good, then why aren't investors running it up? I've been pondering the thought for some time that there's got to be some fish-hook somewhere.

I agree with Penfold CFE doesn't have any other companies I know of to compare with most in the resource sectors are producers or explorers so the market doesn't give CFE any goodwill on it's history an no fair value on the mix of assets..
But as of the last few months CFE does look to be heading towards more royalties of assets sold or J.V -with the like of the CVX signed deal to explore for gold on CFE west africa tenements in Ivory Coast. CFE signed 1% production royalty and potentially giving CVX 80% if they spend 2.5mill and CFE don't contribute anything. If they do CFE gets to keep 40%--also the Mayoko deal where CFE get 25% of the buyer SMZ shares an a $1 per ton royalty--watch CFE do much more of this going forward as well as keep the big deals on the go Marampa the major deal IMHO we will see come about early next year

I'm all for the Share buyback an am all for another 10% buyback next year after the sale of Marampa for 400mill+ why not if you shares are way below fair value it's good for all long term shareholders as after a 10% buyback we all gain a 10% increase in are own shared ownership of CFE as the outstanding shares decrease much like if CFE just gave all S/H 10% more free shares.

[Corporate]

I think we just got a positive result....maybe relating to MCC. Look at the decisive SP rise.

[geezy]

very strong today today, one of the most aggresive buy backs i have seen so far (compared to NZO ) :)

[buns]

Yep the MCC decsion was on today right? Can't think of anything else, the buy back hasn't spiked anything this large.

Very little law behind me, but from a common sense perspective it looked bread and butter. Something the judge could have decided in between overs while watching the Ashes.

50c now truly within reach, assuming this will be a big barrier for CFE.

[Corporate]

geezy i dont' think this is the buy back in action. I think the highest price they can buy at is 47.5c at the moment.

[geezy]

geezy i dont' think this is the buy back in action. I think the highest price they can buy at is 47.5c at the moment.

U r absolutely right Corporate, how could i have forgotten that, news is imminent :)

[JBmurc]

I think we just got a positive result....maybe relating to MCC. Look at the decisive SP rise.

Yes think that was in court again today maybe some insiders are in the know on the latest hearing are bullish on a good for CFE verdict soon

[Gasbox]

Yes think that was in court again today maybe some insiders are in the know on the latest hearing are bullish on a good for CFE verdict soon

Based on the volume levels I don't think the price rise is to do with the buyback, could be market sentiment as it was in general a very good day for the resource sector accross the board with some on my watchlist up 10% and more on no news released.
Then again coud be developments with Marampa or news on the $80m coming in .......hard to pin the rise down but with the Dow closed, Ftse currently up with resources the major advances we could finish around that 50 mark for the week.

[buns]

Boom - 50 cent

[Corporate]

What happened to the share buy back yesterday....none? No annoucement today!

Also look at the buy v. sell side - this is magic :-)

[JBmurc]

What happened to the share buy back yesterday....none? No annoucement today!

Also look at the buy v. sell side - this is magic :-)

Too right good annoucment on it's way IMHO 50's next week

[JBmurc]

HONG Kong-listed CST Mining Group has reported copper and gold results from the Lady Annie project in Queensland, acquired from Cape Lambert Resources for $A135 million in June.

The Company CFE may also receive up to a further $5 million in two deferred payments of $2.5 million each, which are payable on certain production and reserve related milestones being achieved.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you had brought CFE after the divie went ex for 33c your'd be up 48% in alittle over 4 months

[Corporate]

Spot on JB. I'm holding a parcel at 40c and one at 35c (purchased just after the 7c dividend). I'd like to see this back up around 60c before Christmas. $1 is on if Tony can offload Marampa before then.

[JBmurc]

Yeah I'm picking a 55c-65c close for the year an a high over $1 by mid next year

[mattcam103]

Hi Lads,
New to this forum but a large CFE holder - does anybody know the latest?
Cheers.

[Caesius]

Hi Lads,
New to this forum but a large CFE holder - does anybody know the latest?
Cheers.

Yep, SP will hover below 50 c before stagnation sets in once again and we trend lower.

[Corporate]

Alright, I'd like peoples thoughts on this.

I have 25% of my net worth in CFE. However, I'm feeling a little vulnerable after the PRC debacle and am worried that 25% is to high (even though I like CFE's prospects). I know CFE is inherently different to PRC and is not as suspectible to a single point failure. However, I am reassessing all of my positions.

[evilroyrule]

hi corp, im just a beginner compared to everyone else but heres my story re cfe. i held over 100k of cfe. and kept on holding based on the fact it hasnt moved now, must be soon. read someone post about being ruthless with underperforming shares and bit the bullet. so have been selling down based on that reason more so than exposure. and it has been a winner. backed into pir, ekm, gnioa. its a real relief to cut dead weight. maybe some luck in backing winners, but i think the principle of evaluating your portfolio with objectivity is the point.

[shasta]

Alright, I'd like peoples thoughts on this.

I have 25% of my net worth in CFE. However, I'm feeling a little vulnerable after the PRC debacle and am worried that 25% is to high (even though I like CFE's prospects). I know CFE is inherently different to PRC and is not as suspectible to a single point failure. However, I am reassessing all of my positions.

How many stocks do you own?

In the past i've done well & been burnt by having 30%+ in one stock, so i changed my system to a max of 5 stocks, with a rough 20% weighting per stock (if i were to hold 4 stocks, id have 20% cash, 3 stocks 40% cash etc)

For my risk v reward ratio, im quite happy with my system, as i do pretty comprehensive research to find them.

I wouldnt be too worried about 25% in CFE, except it tends to stagnate in between news of pending deals, & watching the volume will tell you when somethings about to come out. Question is, are you happy leaving money in CFE & waiting, i would be, but thats me, im not a trader anymore.

I jumped into CFE a year or so ago @ 35c & sold 2 weeks later for 42c, after that it didnt really move for a while, & i couldve bought them back cheaper.

[Corporate]

How many stocks do you own?

In the past i've done well & been burnt by having 30%+ in one stock, so i changed my system to a max of 5 stocks, with a rough 20% weighting per stock (if i were to hold 4 stocks, id have 20% cash, 3 stocks 40% cash etc)

For my risk v reward ratio, im quite happy with my system, as i do pretty comprehensive research to find them.

I wouldnt be too worried about 25% in CFE, except it tends to stagnate in between news of pending deals, & watching the volume will tell you when somethings about to come out. Question is, are you happy leaving money in CFE & waiting, i would be, but thats me, im not a trader anymore.

I jumped into CFE a year or so ago @ 35c & sold 2 weeks later for 42c, after that it didnt really move for a while, & i couldve bought them back cheaper.

Thanks Shasta

I'm only holding two other stocks (PRC and TSV) Sold VMG and OXX recently.

I've valued PRC as zero in terms of my net worth which leaves me at 30% invested, 70% cash.

I've got two lots of CFE. One at 35c (ex dividend) and one at 40c.

I don't mind sitting and waiting for value to be realised as I have plenty of other cash available for any other stock I want to invest in.

[gazprom1]

Alright, I'd like peoples thoughts on this.

I have 25% of my net worth in CFE. However, I'm feeling a little vulnerable after the PRC debacle and am worried that 25% is to high (even though I like CFE's prospects). I know CFE is inherently different to PRC and is not as suspectible to a single point failure. However, I am reassessing all of my positions.

Hey Corporate,

Given what you have said about your cash position, I would not be too worried about your CFE position. It has a number of assets so at least have some diversification. CFE could sit around here for a while until we get some more M&A activity. I sold out last week but I was near 100% invested and am looking for a little bit more risk so a different set of investment parameters.

Wise to mark your PRC at zero so it will be a nice boost if you get a few cents on the share.

Cheers
Gazprom

[JBmurc]

Alright, I'd like peoples thoughts on this.

I have 25% of my net worth in CFE. However, I'm feeling a little vulnerable after the PRC debacle and am worried that 25% is to high (even though I like CFE's prospects). I know CFE is inherently different to PRC and is not as suspectible to a single point failure. However, I am reassessing all of my positions.

I have 30% of my share portfilo in CFE and I hold 7 different shares if I had the cash I'd hold a couple more It's a personal preference IMHO
CFE IMHO is rock solid an very worth having a good sized holding of anyone wealth

[Corporate]

Thanks all. I'll leave my current holding in CFE as is.

Just need to find some other stocks to unleash the funds on :-)

[buns]

Very interesting comments lately, the once un flappable/no brainer investment on CFE seems to have some double guessing it’s risk profile.

I think it’s a whole lot more risky than we think mainly because of the buy/sell nature of the business. No one can forecast this company forward, as it relies on a group of suits being able to find some assets somewhere and flick them off a value. As we have found out of late, this is simply not easy – Ladie Annie sold for near half of its value, Mayko cheap, MCC $80m….

Now with time, these new undervalued assets are becoming harder and harder to find, and is proven as CFE relies on dangerous countries to buy into. Sure Marampa and such may come off, but then what, then what after that?

I really think CFE needs to hold these assets. Even if Tony and co thinks the most value is in these early stages, investors have no reason to believe this same level of value will be constant and keep coming. Holding these projects for longer, retaining more ownership, rights AND looking for new investment opp’s would really de-risk CFE in my books.Instead Tony will never get there as he pays out a dividend with all of these gains. I really don't think investors value these divys at all, and always expect CFE to drop 100% of the ex divy AND more as the divys follow asset sales, and these asset sales going forward will not (without large risk) be replaced time and time again with similar valued assets to those just sold - i.e Marampa sale will be followed by a divy, will you sell after that?

I think taking a large punt on CFE for another other than a short term investment, is taking a large punt on its management, if you are happy with that. Why not spread your risk in these kind of investments across companies similar to CFE like DGR and MLM which also produce/hold large groups of assets similar to CFE that are priced into their Mark cap..

[Corporate]

Well, I stayed with my investment and loving the slow grind up to fair value. Look at the buy/sell debt almost 8:1. I feel this might cap up shortly.

[JBmurc]

Have you really looked at CFE assets/interests Buns there's more than just Iron ore in western Africa
For one what about the high grade 100% owned Sappes Gold discovery
or 25% of Lady Loretta, 100% lady annie phosphate,100% cape labert south etc etc
CFE also have major investments in 15 different explorers which anyone could turn up multiple major resources that CFE could help develop for a profit

worth having a closer look
http://www.capelam.com.au/irm/content/home.html

Ladie Annie sold for near half of its value, Mayko cheap, MCC $80m---lady annie was nearly sold for what CFE paid for all of copperco assets ,Mayko was sold for a tidy profit plus the fact CFE will receive per ton royalties,MCC will pay the 80mill if not CFE will take cape lambert north back as stated in the contract..

And when CFE do disinvest-Marampa- I'm sure having 300mill+ in cash + royalties would not also mean CFE would stop making good investments Money makes money as long as the managers of the investing knows what there doing I think CFE history speaks volumes

[shasta]

Have you really looked at CFE assets/interests Buns there's more than just Iron ore in western Africa
For one what about the high grade 100% owned Sappes Gold discovery
or 25% of Lady Loretta, 100% lady annie phosphate,100% cape labert south etc etc
CFE also have major investments in 15 different explorers which anyone could turn up multiple major resources that CFE could help develop for a profit

worth having a closer look
http://www.capelam.com.au/irm/content/home.html

Ladie Annie sold for near half of its value, Mayko cheap, MCC $80m---lady annie was nearly sold for what CFE paid for all of copperco assets ,Mayko was sold for a tidy profit plus the fact CFE will receive per ton royalties,MCC will pay the 80mill if not CFE will take cape lambert north back as stated in the contract..

And when CFE do disinvest-Marampa- I'm sure having 300mill+ in cash + royalties would not also mean CFE would stop making good investments Money makes money as long as the managers of the investing knows what there doing I think CFE history speaks volumes

I like CFE's strategy with small explorers by providing funding assistance via convertible notes, CFE earns a very tidy return or can elect to take the equity up in those with the most promise.

Can certainly see this happening more often when CFE sells Marampa & is cashed up, ie these kind of deals is right up Tony's alley

[Corporate]

Two nice articles...TS wants $500m minimum plus retaining an equity stake in Marampa!

Looks like the sale of DMC is progressing well

http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/news/sage-seeking-500m-buyer-african-project/story-e6frg2qu-1225974000196

http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/news/cape-lambert-closes-dmc-sale/story-e6frg2qu-1225973972473

[JBmurc]

$500 mill now that would be nice

[Beagle]

Took a small position in this stock for the first time today. Looking forward to good growth over the years ahead.

[Corporate]

Took a small position in this stock for the first time today. Looking forward to good growth over the years ahead.

Good work Roger. I'm tempted to take out the remaining 30,000 at 50c.

[Beagle]

Good work Roger. I'm tempted to take out the remaining 30,000 at 50c.

Cheers Pal, have a good look through all the news articles on Pan Australia ticker PNA which is another one I like, my theory is with these small cap mining stocks it pays to spread it around a bit.

[shasta]

Cheers Pal, have a good look through all the news articles on Pan Australia ticker PNA which is another one I like, my theory is with these small cap mining stocks it pays to spread it around a bit.

PNA the large copper & gold producer?

Has a market cap of just under $A2.5b, not sure it meets the "small cap" criteria, copper over $US/lb will be helping them though

[Beagle]

PNA the large copper & gold producer?

Has a market cap of just under $A2.5b, not sure it meets the "small cap" criteria, copper over $US/lb will be helping them though

Opps you're quite right shasta, its not really small cap anymore, was just over 10 cents two years ago and met my criteria then. 83.5 cents now and going like a rocket. (Copper, Silver and Gold)

[JBmurc]

Opps you're quite right shasta, its not really small cap anymore, was just over 10 cents two years ago and met my criteria then. 83.5 cents now and going like a rocket. (Copper, Silver and Gold)

If you want a undervalued Copper/Gold play GCR fits the bill

looking forward to CFE unleashing penalty major re-rating news once they have soaked up all their shares through their buyback

[geezy]

JP MORGAN holds 5% , this is good news :)

[JBmurc]

Sage seeking $500m buyer African project

Nick Evans, Business Reporter From: PerthNow December 20, 2010 1:03PM

FRESH from turning around the sale of DMC Mining this month, Tony Sage’s Cape Lambert Resources will put its other major African iron ore project on the blocks next year.
Mr Sage said today he expects to begin the sale process for the sale of the Marampa iron ore project in Sierra Leone early next year.

Cape Lambert acquired its initial stake in the Marampa project in late 2008. The company now controls 100 per cent of the project after issuing 118 million shares to London-listed African Minerals, and agreeing to spend at least $US25 million (then $A29.5 million) on the development of the project.

The Cape Lambert boss now says he will be seeking at least $500 million, plus an ongoing equity interest in the project, in a trade sale of Marampa early in the new year.

The decision comes after Cape Lamberts sale of DMC Mining to Stirling Minerals won the approval of Stirling shareholders this week. DMCs major asset is the Mayoko iron ore project in the Republic of Congo.


We are looking for expressions of interest, as we did with Mayoko, and well probably start another process to monetise Marampa in January, said Mr Sage.

If you go on the valuations that have happened in Guinea and Sierra Leone C with African Minerals, with Bellzone [Mining], with Chinalco and Vale and BHP, the minimum [we would want] would be $500 million.

Cape Lambert announced a maiden resource at Marampa last month, saying project contains 197 million tonnes grading 28.5% iron, with further exploration expected to significantly expand that resource.

Mr Sage said the company has sorted out transport issues at the project, and expects production to begin early in 2012.

Retaining an equity stake in both Mayoko and Marampa marks a major change of strategy for Cape Lambert, which made its money from buying earlier stage projects and then selling them before they reached production.

Mr Sage said maintaining an equity stake in the mines it buys will be a major part of Cape Lamberts strategy in the future, however.

He said the success of other Africa-focussed mining plays was the spur for Cape Lambert to shift strategy.

Cape Lambert was trading at 50c at 1245 AWST

[mattcam103]

Hi,
What is the latest on the $80mill MCC payment, I would have expected this to be out by now and kick off the good newsflow...
Anybody help...

[JBmurc]

STIRLING MINERALS COMPLETES AUD$96 MILLION PLACEMENT – DIVESTMENT OF DMC MINING EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED IN COMING DAYS
Key Points:
• Divestment of wholly owned subsidiary DMC Mining Limited to Stirling Minerals Limited to be completed on or about 10 January 2011 following the successful AUD$96M capital raising announced by Stirling Minerals.
• Cape Lambert is to receive:
o AUD$47 million cash;
o 120 million Stirling Minerals shares (post-consolidation) equivalent to approximately 25% of Stirling Minerals’ undiluted capital; and
o a production royalty of AUD$1 per tonne of iron ore shipped (whether DSO, beneficiated DSO or magnetite concentrate).
• Cape Lambert to hold ~25% of the issued capital of Stirling Minerals with Cape Lambert executives Tony Sage and Joe Ariti to join the board of Stirling Minerals following completion.
Australian resources and investment company, Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX: CFE) (Cape Lambert or the Company) is pleased to announce that Stirling Minerals Limited (ASX: SMZ) (Stirling) has successfully raised AUD$96 million, one of the final conditions precedent to the acquisition by Stirling Minerals of 100% of DMC Mining Limited (DMC Mining) and its 80% interest in the Mayoko Iron Ore Project (Mayoko Project) located in the Republic of Congo (Transaction).
Under the terms of the Transaction announced on 5 November 2010, Stirling Minerals agreed to acquire DMC Mining for the following consideration:
o payment of AUD$47 million cash; and
o the issue of 120 million Stirling Minerals shares (on a post-consolidated basis) which represents an approximate 25% interest in Stirling Minerals following completion of the capital raising and Transaction,
(together, the Consideration).
In addition to the Consideration, Cape Lambert will also receive a production royalty of AUD$1 per tonne of iron ore shipped (whether DSO, beneficiated DSO or magnetite concentrate) from the Mayoko Project.
To fund the Transaction, and to satisfy one of the key conditions precedent to the Transaction, Stirling Minerals undertook a capital raising of AUD$96 million

[Corporate]

Some more in the media..




This says to me that the big boys are following TS and CFE very, very closely and it augers well for Marampa, Sappes and others!

Great job CFE...you've delivered again...you deserve a 10 cent re-rating right now!

Australian article follows:

Cape Lambert Resources has pulled off another profitable iron ore deal by selling recently acquired DMC Mining to Stirling Minerals.
But unlike previous deals, Cape Lambert will be staying on board with a 25 per cent interest in Stirling, which yesterday announced a successful $96 million capital raising.

Cape Lambert took over DMC, whose main asset is the Mayoko iron ore project in the Republic of Congo, in mid-2010 for a total outlay of about $30m, and is selling it to Stirling for $47m in cash plus 120 million Stirling shares worth about $36m, plus a $1-a-tonne production royalty from the project, which is still at the planning stage.

Even without the royalty, Cape Lambert appears to have turned $30m into about $83m in six months. Stirling was a mining company with good cash reserves, but no flagship project.

The capital raising, which was joint lead managed by Patersons Securities and Renaissance Securities (Cyprus), will see the issue of 320 million new shares at 30c a share (post a 6.75-for-10 share consolidation) to institutional investors in Australia, the US and Britain.

The investors are understood to include Och-Ziff, JPMorgan and Blackrock. Stirling plans to change its name to African Iron, with the stock code AKI.

Directors will include mining veteran Ian Burston as chairman and Cape Lambert nominees Tony Sage and Joe Ariti as directors.

Stirling was managed by Tony King, but the Stirling board will be replaced and African Iron will get a new CEO, who is yet to be named.

Mr Ariti will be acting CEO until the appointment is made.

[buns]

Sage seeking $500m buyer African project

Retaining an equity stake in both Mayoko and Marampa marks a major change of strategy for Cape Lambert, which made its money from buying earlier stage projects and then selling them before they reached production.

He said the success of other Africa-focussed mining plays was the spur for Cape Lambert to shift strategy.

Cape Lambert was trading at 50c at 1245 AWST

Very pleased to hear this. Good on 2 parts.

1- I think it should attract a new breed of shareholders, and most importantly should make CFE more attractive to the insto's. It will probably also make current short/medium term holders now think about holding long term, to reap the benefits of these royalties which may not be priced into the SP - it's got me thinking about it anyway...
2- When CFE come to sell an asset, they should be able to more value from them as both parties intentions will now be more aligned. I'm not saying we have any, but we essentially we can't sell lemons under this strategy so buyers won't be scared when approaching CFE..

Good stuff, now lets break f'n 50c

[Corporate]

Finally CFE has pushed well above 50c. The buy/sell depth is very telling!

[JBmurc]

yeah it's about time it broke the into the 50's now if they could only sort the 80mill MCC deal out CFE would trade in the 60's then sappes 70's then Marampa $1+ then.....................................

[buns]

Today is looking much like the last two - good stuff

However its forced me to sell a chunk at .545 as CFE is now starting to dominate my portfolio. Enjoying this but not willing to get carried away..

[COLIN]

Increased my holdings a few days ago. Buyers:sellers now 10:1.

[JBmurc]

yeah CFE has broken free from the recent trading range am confindent we'll see the 60's on the next ann(hopefully 80mill sorted with MCC)

[Corporate]

yeah CFE has broken free from the recent trading range am confindent we'll see the 60's on the next ann(hopefully 80mill sorted with MCC)

With the way it's going JB we could be seeing 60c this week!

[JBmurc]

With the way it's going JB we could be seeing 60c this week!

Yeah don't think I've even seen the Depth look as bullish as it does now like a 10:1 ratio of buyers to sellers --add in the buyback +++

If any major buyers want on board they'll have to pay up ---sellers not keen to leave orders in place worried an ann could see the SP spike 10+%

bring on the good news

[Corporate]

CFE own 25% of AKI and it is up nicely on the first day of trading :-) I'd like to see a Marampa IPO.

[Corporate]

Phaedrus, if you're out there? I'd love to hear your thoughts on the CFE chart.

Cheers,

C

[Phaedrus]

Here you go Corp. This updates the chart on Page 44 (#646).
The chart on Page 49 (#726) shows that, using free net-based charts, anyone can do this stuff.

Good buy signals eh? 50% profit in just a few months is not too shabby. I'm sure you don't need me to tell you that there is no sign of any technical weakness as yet. Looking good!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CFE115.gif

[percy]

phaedrus.
Thank you for the chart.

[Beagle]

I'm glad to be on board. Interestingly there's a price limit on their buy-back, they can't pay over 50.5 cents i think it is so the recent surge in the SP has been on the back of genuine new demand for the stock.

[buns]

I'm glad to be on board. Interestingly there's a price limit on their buy-back, they can't pay over 50.5 cents i think it is so the recent surge in the SP has been on the back of genuine new demand for the stock.

Gee Rodge you timed your entrance well. Looks like you jumped on board right around the time of this upswing.

This is the first stock I've held which has bought back it's own shares, so I'm not going to comment on what is driving this. Can buy backs push a stock into a position where the charts look tasty inviting larger investors to enter?

Any actual news from the CFE business is near impossible to predict as well since they have so much going on.

One thing that has me thinking with CFE is whether they will carry on with their dividend strategy - I for one (being a kiwi) hope they cancel it.

Now we are prepared to take less cash from sales, and instead give ourselves retained ownership + royalties I'm thinking/hoping the cash given up for this may replace the dividend. Maybe this change in strategy means they think both holding cash/or giving it out isn’t the best use of shareholders funds, instead leaving it in the business/previously owned assets to create long term growth assets, instead of a cheap 15% dividend.

The dividend is so inconsistent with the business model its not funny. Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t the dividend paid last year about the same as what we paid for Mayko? Just in a matter of months this has blown right past 15% or any return a div may give.

What does worry me a tad is that this seems to straight forward, and maybe CFE pay this out because they don't feel comfortable buying any new assets with these sale proceeds. If this is the case, CFE will struggle to prosper in the long term, outside of its current portfolio of assets.

I won’t harp on about CFE and dividends, the main point I wanted to rise was around what other changes in the business, possibly the capital structure, that this change in strategy may bring about

[Corporate]

Here you go Corp. This updates the chart on Page 44 (#646).
The chart on Page 49 (#726) shows that, using free net-based charts, anyone can do this stuff.

Good buy signals eh? 50% profit in just a few months is not too shabby. I'm sure you don't need me to tell you that there is no sign of any technical weakness as yet. Looking good!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CFE115.gif

Thanks Phaedrus. Great chart as per usual. Now if the share price broke through the current trendline, would you consider that a strong sell signal?

Appreciate your work.

Cheers,
C

[Corporate]

Gee Rodge you timed your entrance well. Looks like you jumped on board right around the time of this upswing.

This is the first stock I've held which has bought back it's own shares, so I'm not going to comment on what is driving this. Can buy backs push a stock into a position where the charts look tasty inviting larger investors to enter?

Any actual news from the CFE business is near impossible to predict as well since they have so much going on.

One thing that has me thinking with CFE is whether they will carry on with their dividend strategy - I for one (being a kiwi) hope they cancel it.

Now we are prepared to take less cash from sales, and instead give ourselves retained ownership + royalties I'm thinking/hoping the cash given up for this may replace the dividend. Maybe this change in strategy means they think both holding cash/or giving it out isn’t the best use of shareholders funds, instead leaving it in the business/previously owned assets to create long term growth assets, instead of a cheap 15% dividend.

The dividend is so inconsistent with the business model its not funny. Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t the dividend paid last year about the same as what we paid for Mayko? Just in a matter of months this has blown right past 15% or any return a div may give.

What does worry me a tad is that this seems to straight forward, and maybe CFE pay this out because they don't feel comfortable buying any new assets with these sale proceeds. If this is the case, CFE will struggle to prosper in the long term, outside of its current portfolio of assets.

I won’t harp on about CFE and dividends, the main point I wanted to rise was around what other changes in the business, possibly the capital structure, that this change in strategy may bring about

Buns, I agree. As a New Zealand resident the dividends are terrible. It has crossed my mind once or twice, that when Marampa is sold the best time to get out might be just before the dividend is paid. I would prefer if instead of dividends, the buy back was continued for the long term. If holders want cash flow they can sell down shares.

Dividends are really only attractive if they are paid with some consistency and when they are tax efficient.

[percy]

EBO in NZ issue shares in liue of divie which you have the right to sell back to the company.

[buns]

Buns, I agree. As a New Zealand resident the dividends are terrible. It has crossed my mind once or twice, that when Marampa is sold the best time to get out might be just before the dividend is paid. I would prefer if instead of dividends, the buy back was continued for the long term. If holders want cash flow they can sell down shares.

Dividends are really only attractive if they are paid with some consistency and when they are tax efficient.

Yep as a kiwi I agree with all those points. But it’s silly us NZ shareholders kicking up a fuss, making CFE favourable to NZ shareholders won’t grow this company. However if Aussie insto’s and banks want in to CFE, with some income/dividend being a requirement I suppose it’s fair…

Long term though, under this new strategy which should mean less cash in hand (retained ownership in assets). Burning cash like this (paying divvy/buybacks) should stunt the growth of CFE.

It’s not really consistent with aspiring to grow your company 4x (Tony stating he wants a $1b mc company). CFE is the kind of company which has to grow quickly, in 5 years time finding discounted/cheap assets around the world will only get harder and more risky. I just look at the Mayko sale, and would like to think we do more of this with the divvy/buy back cash. This cash/investment will only compound/grow within the company.

[Phaedrus]

If CFE broke through the current trendline, would you consider that a strong sell signal?It would certainly qualify as a sell signal - whether it was strong or not (and whether you should act on it or not) would depend on what, if anything, was backing it up. OBV, chart patterns, other indicators, volume, etc.
Up again today and looking strong. The time to be looking for sell signals will come, but for now just relax and enjoy the ride.

[Corporate]

It would certainly qualify as a sell signal - whether it was strong or not (and whether you should act on it or not) would depend on what, if anything, was backing it up. OBV, chart patterns, other indicators, volume, etc.
Up again today and looking strong. The time to be looking for sell signals will come, but for now just relax and enjoy the ride.

Not looking to sell. Thinking about buying more :-)

[COLIN]

I'm glad to be on board. Interestingly there's a price limit on their buy-back, they can't pay over 50.5 cents i think it is so the recent surge in the SP has been on the back of genuine new demand for the stock.

Roger: According to their latest Buy-back Notice they are permitted to go to 56.5c, under the applicable Rules. They lodge these Buy-back Notices on a regular basis, so they are in fact very active in the market.

Buy:Sell ratio continues to run very high.

[Beagle]

Roger: According to their latest Buy-back Notice they are permitted to go to 56.5c, under the applicable Rules. They lodge these Buy-back Notices on a regular basis, so they are in fact very active in the market.

Buy:Sell ratio continues to run very high.

Thanks for that Colin. Have you seen the latest news article today, 19 page presentation to Perth brokers, NTA according to directors $800m ++, approx 600m shares = $1.33 per share ++ No wonder they're buying the shares back !! Added to my position yesterday. Check out the SP graph and relative SP performacne to the ASX 200 - this stock is a real winner, I will be adding more soon as funds allow.

[Corporate]

What a chart, what buy depth, what fundamentals. It's the perfect storm!

Great presentation today - CFE still highly undervalued.

[Beagle]

What a chart, what buy depth, what fundamentals. It's the perfect storm!

Great presentation today - CFE still highly undervalued.

Crikey it was 10:1 or thereabouts buy to sell depth every time I checked yesterday and the company itself bought back over 600,000 shares yesterday, their long term vastly superior out-performacne against the ASX indicies, the current under valued situation based on their presentation yesterday, the fact that their presentation to brokers will make more clients aware of this stock, the buy sell depth, the recent disclosure of a substantial secuity notice form one of the major investment banks in the U.S. (I forgotten who it was in all the excitement), the chart, just look at the SP chart you'll see what I mean, the fundamentals, about 36m shares still to go in the current round of the share buy-back, tightly held with 62% of the stock owned by the top 20 shareholders, management have 6% ownership, this stock has WINNER written all over it !!

I bought more on the ASX open today.

[Corporate]

60c+ is definitely insight. JB...how good is this. About time!

[Beagle]

Gee Rodge you timed your entrance well. Looks like you jumped on board right around the time of this upswing. This is the first stock I've held which has bought back it's own shares, so I'm not going to comment on what is driving this. Can buy backs push a stock into a position where the charts look tasty inviting larger investors to enter?

Thanks buns, yeah I did, I wish I could attribute that to good management / analysis on my part but hey, a bit of luck, I'll take it, especially after the PRC / NZO fiasco.

I think I've got the hang of the buy-back now, it seems to be based on a rolling weighted average of the share-price under Australian buy-back rules, current maximum 57.5 cents and I would theorize that this is designed so that companies can't artifically prop up their own share prices.

If N.T.A. is $1.33 or thereabouts, seeing as the company just received a lot of cash, why not buy them back like crazy ?

Regarding the dividend thing, yeah I'm not keen on Aussie dividends for tax reasons either but hey there's no way you can argue about the long term performane of the company as they've thrashed the ASX index by a country mile.

Very happy to be riding this rocket !!

[Xerof]

they've thrashed the ASX index by a country mile.


Dunno how that works - I sold my CFE a year ago at 60 cents due to a failure to deliver on the very things you now talk about - seems to be permanently undervalued - have a trawl through the thread back a year or three - the bright eyed newcomers (me included) were preaching the same gospel then too !!

I like the concept of the buy-back, and good luck with your investment Roger, but CFE's long term performance so far is very mediocre

[Beagle]

Dunno how that works - I sold my CFE a year ago at 60 cents due to a failure to deliver on the very things you now talk about - seems to be permanently undervalued - have a trawl through the thread back a year or three - the bright eyed newcomers (me included) were preaching the same gospel then too !!

I like the concept of the buy-back, and good luck with your investment Roger, but CFE's long term performance so far is very mediocre

Thanks Xerof for introducing a dose of realism which I probably need. Have a look under the news section in the market, company announcements at the 19 page report to Perth brokers and contained therin is a share price graph comparing CFE's SP to the ASX since 2005, I believe it was. Over the last 5 years according to that presentation the SP has absolutly thrashed the ASX indicies. I guess whether 1 year or 5 years is long term is determined by each individual investors perspective. Thanks for your good wishes and sorry you didn't have a better run.

[Xerof]

I was very happy with a run from 35 to 60 in a reasonably short period of time, and yes over 6 years Tony has performed well. His coup was buying the distressed assets during the GFC, but my point is, his model hasn't (so far) managed to reap the full value. The share buyback will help in that regard

cheers

[Serpie]

Brutus,
You were right about CFE buying up one of MRX's old projects in the clearance sale.

I was reading through the MRX anns last night. Although those of us that still hold MRX will be left with less than nothing after any possible recapitilisation and reorganisation of capital, and subsequent relisting of MRX, it could be one to keep an eye on if it does float again.
I say this because on Christmas Eve three people quietly slipped on to the board - Joe Ariti (CFE, AKI, SWK, TTY, DMC) Tony Sage (CFE, IGS, CHM, CXU) and Jason Bontempo (IGS, CHM, SMZ). Thick as thieves these three, so I'll be interested to see what they do with the MRX shell.

[Corporate]

Brutus,
You were right about CFE buying up one of MRX's old projects in the clearance sale.

I was reading through the MRX anns last night. Although those of us that still hold MRX will be left with less than nothing after any possible recapitilisation and reorganisation of capital, and subsequent relisting of MRX, it could be one to keep an eye on if it does float again.
I say this because on Christmas Eve three people quietly slipped on to the board - Joe Ariti (CFE, AKI, SWK, TTY, DMC) Tony Sage (CFE, IGS, CHM, CXU) and Jason Bontempo (IGS, CHM, SMZ). Thick as thieves these three, so I'll be interested to see what they do with the MRX shell.


Yeah I think there is definitely something going on behind the scene. They didn't become directors on the 24th for no reason.

[JBmurc]

Yeah I think there is definitely something going on behind the scene. They didn't become directors on the 24th for no reason.

yeah think we'll look back mid year an wish we'd held more shares

I'd love to see the below happen before mid year
-MCC $80mill payment sorted
-Marampa buyer sorted-link below sage
-http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/news/sage-seeking-500m-buyer-african-project/story-e6frg2qu-1225974000196
-then maybe for a bonus -Sappes gold discovery sold 50mill+

doing even the most basic numbers sees CFE could well command $1.50 SP to reach fair value if the above happens in a short period of time.

[Beagle]

I was very happy with a run from 35 to 60 in a reasonably short period of time, and yes over 6 years Tony has performed well. His coup was buying the distressed assets during the GFC, but my point is, his model hasn't (so far) managed to reap the full value. The share buyback will help in that regard

cheers

Sounds like you had pretty good timing too and enjoyed a good run. I guess being fresh to the table I have plenty of patience however I can certainly understand anyone buying last year at about 60 cents being a little frustrated with lack of SP progress. But hey, its all perspective, they could have been PRC or NZO shareholders so sometimes breaking even on mining stocks isn't such a bad thing !! :)

[Beagle]

If N.T.A. is $1.33 or thereabouts, seeing as the company just received a lot of cash, why not buy them back like crazy ?Roger

I see they are, 2,000,000 bought back on Friday at 58 cents. Its nice to see a company put serious money where its mouth is. 60 cent range this week, surely ?

P.S. Yes 60.5 cents this morning.

[mattcam103]

I would have thought the MCC $80 mill would have been sorted by now? Wasn't a hearing held in September?

[percy]

I would have thought the MCC $80 mill would have been sorted by now? Wasn't a hearing held in September?

No, on 8thSeptember CFE announced they would commence proceedings against them in the supreme court.No news as to when the case is to be heard,as far as I know.
I just rang the company,no one there to answer when the court case is to be heard.I am to ring back in a couple of hours,so we will see.

[mattcam103]

Ok Thanks Percy.

[Brut]

No, on 8thSeptember CFE announced they would commence proceedings against them in the supreme court.No news as to when the case is to be heard,as far as I know.
I just rang the company,no one there to answer when the court case is to be heard.I am to ring back in a couple of hours,so we will see.

This post was on another site regarding the $80m payment, hope this helps?
When I spoke with TS at a Mining Conference here in Brisbane before Christmas, he advised that it would be March at the earliest before there was any resolution to the due $80m payment He also advised that they were two other companies who were experiencing similar difficulties with delayed/non payments, from memory, by the same company.

[Corporate]

61.5 cent close today. What I think is very interesting is that the buy back is increasing in rate!! Something big coming.

[JBmurc]

61.5 cent close today. What I think is very interesting is that the buy back is increasing in rate!! Something big coming.

yeah too right ...bring it on glad to see CFE trending up

[Beagle]

What does the latest announcement today mean regarding amended agreement ? Can anyone shed some light on this and if its a good thing for the company, I guess we just have to trust Tony it is, i.e. if he says he's pleased I guess we should be too ?

[JBmurc]

What does the latest announcement today mean regarding amended agreement ? Can anyone shed some light on this and if its a good thing for the company, I guess we just have to trust Tony it is, i.e. if he says he's pleased I guess we should be too ?

Yes is good not long now IMHO before a buyer comes knocking

Cape Lambert Executive Chairman, Mr. Tony Sage said “he was pleased with the revised agreement with African Minerals as it provided the Company with 5 million tonnes per annum of transport capacity without the requirement to invest significant capital in refurbishing the Marampa Rail and Pepel Port”.
He further added “the timing was such that the Tagrin Infrastructure would be online at about the time the Marampa Project was scheduled to commence production, so Marampa would effectively have 5Mtpa of transport capacity from day one split over the Marampa/Pepel Infrastructure and Tagrin Infrastructure

[shasta]

Yes is good not long now IMHO before a buyer comes knocking

Cape Lambert Executive Chairman, Mr. Tony Sage said “he was pleased with the revised agreement with African Minerals as it provided the Company with 5 million tonnes per annum of transport capacity without the requirement to invest significant capital in refurbishing the Marampa Rail and Pepel Port”.
He further added “the timing was such that the Tagrin Infrastructure would be online at about the time the Marampa Project was scheduled to commence production, so Marampa would effectively have 5Mtpa of transport capacity from day one split over the Marampa/Pepel Infrastructure and Tagrin Infrastructure

Article from The Australian.com.au

Cape Lambert puts Sierra Leone project up for sale

MINING: Cape Lambert Resources has started a $500 million sale process for its Marampa iron ore project in Sierra Leone.
"We start the (sale) process now and we have two groups going on site in February," Tony Sage, executive chairman of the Australian miner, said yesterday.

"We expect the sale to be complete by June 30," Mr Sage told reporters at a briefing.

He said he believed the project had a "minimum" value of $500m.

Although unwilling to identify the two prospective buyers about to visit Marampa, Mr Sage described them as a Korean steel making group and a "consortium of steel mills out of China".

He said earlier visitors to the project had included two Chinese entities -- the Shandong group and MCC.

Mr Sage said Cape Lambert was considering a 100 per cent "trade sale" of the Sierra Leone venture.

However, the executive chairman said he was leaning more towards an initial public offering which would leave room for Cape Lambert to retain an interest in the project.

The IPO would potentially raise between $US400m and $US500m, he said.

"We'd probably list it in London or Hong Kong," he said.

On top of the sale price, the buyer would need to spend roughly $600m to bring Marampa into production at a rate of 5 million tonnes a year, he said.

Cape Lambert recently concluded a deal with African Minerals to gain access on commercial terms to a nearby railway and port.

Under the deal, Cape Lambert's Marampa project secured 5 million tonnes a year of transport capacity.

Sierra Leone is one of several countries emerging as potential iron ore exporters in West Africa. The region has recently attracted investments from China as well as from diversified mining majors Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Vale of Brazil.

[Entrep]

Lady Loretta project interest sold by CFE to Xstrata for $30m cash

[Corporate]

This was out of left field. Well done TS. The story just gets better and better!!!

[JBmurc]

This was out of left field. Well done TS. The story just gets better and better!!!

yeah it sure does yet more cash to the pile next 80m MCC payment then 50-60mill Sappes sale 500mill+ Marampa ...........its going be a great year to be a CFE holder $1min this year

[corporateraider]

I have been in and out of CFE a few times, but I am enormously sceptical of the story. Does anyone have a view of what will happen when the very strong buying support provided by the buyback ceases?

[Corporate]

I have been in and out of CFE a few times, but I am enormously sceptical of the story. Does anyone have a view of what will happen when the very strong buying support provided by the buyback ceases?

At the rate they are going the buy back limit could be reached in around 20 trading days. I'm not sure what will happen, but I have watching the chart.

I wouldn't be surprised if they increase the buy back limit.

[shasta]

At the rate they are going the buy back limit could be reached in around 20 trading days. I'm not sure what will happen, but I have watching the chart.

I wouldn't be surprised if they increase the buy back limit.

The $30m they are getting could well be used for further share buybacks, just not sure how many they can buy back within a calendar year

[JBmurc]

I have been in and out of CFE a few times, but I am enormously sceptical of the story. Does anyone have a view of what will happen when the very strong buying support provided by the buyback ceases?

They will annouce another major sale Marampa 300mill+ etc

I am not at all sceptical of the CFE story reads pretty clear to me...CFE buy (or take a stake)in undervalued assets and work to release a higher value and sometimes take a royality ....Now they have shown right from day one to today they are enormously success at this..
just do some history on CFE

[geezy]

the level of how this buy back is conducted demonstrates the confidence of the management in the company , kudos to CFE

[Phaedrus]

Several other titles also come to mind :-

such as Why "Buy and Hold" is for Mugs.

or Portrait of a Well-behaved Stock.

or Fundamentals Don't Matter!

or Why I use TA.

CFE has gone nowhere for literally years - its current price is below what it was way back in in 2006! As a "Buy and Hold" candidate, it has been an unmitigated disaster - but look how nicely it trends. See how well a wide assortment of technical indicators monitor these trends, triggering Buy signals after it has bottomed and Sell signals after each peak. See how, even though these are all very different types of indicator, signals are triggered over a relatively short time-span. Note the strength of the current uptrend. Holders should not get cocky or complacent though because it will end. All uptrends do. We can nevertheless be fairly sure that this handful of indicators will again signal when it is time to take profits.

I won't post the gains that would have accrued to anyone following these signals - I don't want to upset the fundamentalists!

Then of course there are those that state "It's time in the market that counts - not timing the market"! There are even people that claim "timing the market" is impossible and therefore advocate "dollar cost averaging"!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CFE27.gif

[gazprom1]

There is no doubt that buying and holding over that period would have been a poor investment Phaedrus. You should post the gains that could have been made if the signals had been followed as I am sure us funddies will not be upset - hope not anyway=)=). I enjoyed owning CFE and averaged down for a while and made a lovely amount of cash on the SP rise.

It is great how we all have different investment styles and objectives. The most important thing IMHO is that we are open to new ideas and are tolerant of others views. If I believe in a stock, I will buy it all the way through the curve and double/ triple/etc down. I appreciate you would say that I could/ should have excited and bought back cheaper and saved myself potentially a lot of money.

Gazprom

[shasta]

There is no doubt that buying and holding over that period would have been a poor investment Phaedrus. You should post the gains that could have been made if the signals had been followed as I am sure us funddies will not be upset - hope not anyway=)=). I enjoyed owning CFE and averaged down for a while and made a lovely amount of cash on the SP rise.

It is great how we all have different investment styles and objectives. The most important thing IMHO is that we are open to new ideas and are tolerant of others views. If I believe in a stock, I will buy it all the way through the curve and double/ triple/etc down. I appreciate you would say that I could/ should have excited and bought back cheaper and saved myself potentially a lot of money.

Gazprom

CFE makes capital returns, thats there business model, so ex entitlement the stock will always drop to around what the new market cap is in theory.

I would at a guess suggest, the SP drop off after a payout indicates the inactivity while the next deal is being arranged, & that the stock rises when mgmt indicates a deal is imminent.

My only forray into CFE was some time ago, in at 35c & out at 42c 2 weeks later for a 20% gain.

Disc: Ex holder

[OldRider]

Phaedrus: Readily admitting my knowledge of TA is basic, although I do appreciate and learn from your charts, and use my basic TA ability to assist buys and sells, your chart does not
tell the whole story. I have held CFE since the days it was Hamill Resources, nearly 10 years with two purchases in this period, so I guess I am a mug, FA over this period gives IRR of 28.35% . Not bad for a mug.

I have guessed your data does not include dividends, the capital return, or the free shares in spin offs, African Petroleum produced an IRR in excess of 100% during the time
I owned the company, which I have not taken into calculation.

Neither of us is wrong just only partly right, It shows in my opinion there is more to everything than surface viewing shows,
and conclusions are only as good as the data.

[corporateraider]

I am very much a fundamentalist but I have to agree with Phaedrus on this one -there is definitely a time to be out of CFE. I last got out the last time the share price hit 50 and the share then went down and nowhere for a long time.
There was obviously a time to get back in, but I lost confidence in the story a long time ago. For example the company has been going to sell Sappes for 50mill for about a year and a half. The gold price has rocketed in that time and yet they still haven't flogged it.
I don't invest where I can't see the value no matter how hard it is running. (I must be old fashioned.)

[JBmurc]

My average buy of CFE is in the low 30's so currently including the divide It's true value to me is over 70c

CFE Strong track record of delivering shareholder value
 November 2010, on market buy back commenced, A$7.2 million bought back from
shareholders to date
 July 2010, A$44 million fully franked special dividend
 October 2008, A$100 million capital/dividend payment
 October 2007, in specie distribution of Global Iron Limited (now African Petroleum
Corporation Limited), Market Cap now A$1.1 billion
 May 2006, in specie distribution of International Goldfields Limited (now International
Petroleum Limited), Market Cap now A$305 million

Now IMHO the best is yet to come,but if your T/A states it's going nowhere sell I see in the chart CFE fell heavily in 2008 GFC gee like no other stock took a hit then...personal I think your look back at the end of the year and see a very nice T/A showing a strong break through of old resistance points

[JBmurc]

My average buy of CFE is in the low 30's so currently including the divide It's true value to me is over 70c

CFE Strong track record of delivering shareholder value
 November 2010, on market buy back commenced, A$7.2 million bought back from
shareholders to date
 July 2010, A$44 million fully franked special dividend
 October 2008, A$100 million capital/dividend payment
 October 2007, in specie distribution of Global Iron Limited (now African Petroleum
Corporation Limited), Market Cap now A$1.1 billion
 May 2006, in specie distribution of International Goldfields Limited (now International
Petroleum Limited), Market Cap now A$305 million

Now IMHO the best is yet to come,but if your T/A states it's going nowhere sell I see in the chart CFE fell heavily in 2008 GFC gee like no other stock took a hit then...personal I think your look back at the end of the year and see a very nice T/A showing a strong break through of old resistance points

also would you say BHP has been a bad investment just do a 5yr chart looks very similar to CFE can,t say BHP isn't a great company yet CFE is going nowhere LOL

[COLIN]

also would you say BHP has been a bad investment just do a 5yr chart looks very similar to CFE can,t say BHP isn't a great company yet CFE is going nowhere LOL

JB: I don't think Phaedrus is actually saying "CFE is going nowhere" - but he is "graphically" pointing out the stark contrast between a "buy and hold" approach as opposed to taking advantage of the buy/sell signals. And he is saying that, right now, CFE is a great stock to own, but be alert for the indicators that will signal the next (inevitable) time for withdrawal for those who want to maximise their returns - which I presume is what we all strive for!

There have also been times to buy BHP and times to sell them - I know, because I have been there.

[JBmurc]

Well I read it differently "Portrait of a Stock going Nowhere"states he believe CFE has gone nowhere SP wise --- Facts differ

IMHO CFE is at all time 5yr highs if you factor in the FACT that when CFE was at their 5yr closing high 85.5c(which was a very short term spike) they did a major capital return to shareholders 21.7c oct 08 then mid last year we received 7cps divide now CFE are buying back 10% of the shares outstanding
--Current SP=66c+21.7c+7c+94.7c (plus 10% buyback)

[shasta]

Ann out today highlighting the profit made from the $135m spent to acquire Copperco's assets

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CFE&E=ASX&N=528105

$205m already unlocked & with $80m worth of assets still to sell!

[buns]

Ann out today highlighting the profit made from the $135m spent to acquire Copperco's assets

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CFE&E=ASX&N=528105

$205m already unlocked & with $80m worth of assets still to sell!

Todays announcment pleased me a lot. I thought it was a great display of top notch investor relations.

Really they had no news to present here, if someone really dug hard they could have come up with this themselves, BUT that is the thing with CFE,it is so hard to dig this beast up and really understand the value in this model.

This announcment cleary states how the CFE model works. It's a whole lot better than there standard table of assets and probable values (always at the end of there investor reports). This kind of release demonstrates clearly how they pick up and investment from stage 1, and take it to sale.

Sage dosent do this stuff alone people. He seems to get all the props around this place and HC, but he must have some pretty clued up guys hanging around him. This does show, one of CFE's key risks is a loss of senior management.

[Corporate]

68.5c has just been hit! Very good!

[Corporate]

And it keeps going 71c!

[buns]

No buy back + strong buying all of a sudden - News around the corner?

Everyone’s hoping for Marampa sale news, I'm holding out for news on a new acquisition/raised holding or the find of a new project. CFE can control the Marampa sale, but they can’t control when a new distressed/undervalued asset becomes available.

Short/Medium term holder probably don’t care about this. But I would like to hold this long term as I can’t find anything half as good to replace it..

For CFE to keep this growth going they need another Marampa/Makoyo to build up throughout FY12/13, and then another and another. I realise they have more in the kitty – pinnacle, Sapes etc etc. But once Marampa has gone and Div paid CFE won’t have this large discount to Net assets, and less news flow (key driver to the SP in a company like this).

How good would a large Silver project (not Tony’s I-phone) look in the CFE portfolio?

[buns]

Will eat my words - The buy back will carry on.

And provide a floor at 70c, but lets hope that dosen't get touched

[Corporate]

Phaedrus, I'd be interested in your view on where stop losses could be placed based on TA?

Cheers,

C

[Lego_Man]

Congrats to holders, but i think you should be very meticulous about setting your stops.

I cant see a longterm future for this company, eventually their model will cease to generate anything meaningful and they'll be worth 9/10ths of ****-all.

[Corporate]

I cant see a longterm future for this company, eventually their model will cease to generate anything meaningful and they'll be worth 9/10ths of ****-all.

Why?

Agree with your points on stops.

[Phaedrus]

The best place to put your StopLoss is just below the support level preceding your entry point. For example, if you bought CFE at the big green arrow, your StopLoss would be placed just below the 36 cent Low of October 5th as marked in red. StopLosses are set at or before entry and do not move.

You are really talking about Trailing Stops. The chart below shows an ATR based trailing stop, but if you have no access to these, a simple 8% Trailing Stop gives a very close equivalent in this instance. Typically, Trailing Stops are the last indicator to trigger, and for those wanting to monitor an uptrend, there are better indicators available.

The chart below shows 8 indicators that have been tailored to the current uptrend. NONE of these will get you out at the top, but all should provide timely exit signals. In addition, watch the RSI for any Bearish Divergence and keep a good eye on the OBV plot for any sign of weakness. (I have not shown it here because it is in a nice strong very simple uptrend.) Don't neglect candlesticks either - these can give good warning of significant turning points.

Not getting nervous are you Corp? Maybe you are one of those people that feel the CFE share price is getting a little ahead of itself fundamentally. The time to be nervous WILL come, but it is most assuredly not here yet. Don't worry about the fundamentals - they were perhaps an important factor in getting you into CFE, but now TA is far more important and will do a much better job of getting you out. Most uptrends run higher than "fundamental value" would suggest they should, so why not see how far this one will go? Set yourself up to closely monitor CFE, decide on your exit criteria and then you can sit back, relax and enjoy the ride.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CFE217.gif

[Xerof]

Excellent and Sage (pardon the pun) advice Phaedrus, as usual

you say tailored indicators....I'd be interested in seeing the same chart with default settings if you are inclined to be bothered?

I presume its tailored to line up the entry point?


BTW, good on you holders for holding, and in a few cases, adding during the uptrend

cheers

[Phaedrus]

I'd be interested in seeing the same chart with default settingsIt's not all that different. The RSI default is 14 in any case. Momentum default is 12, but that would have given a premature, unsupported "sell" signal way back in October. The DMI default is 14 days, and that will work just fine, but lowering it to 8 will make the indicator more sensitive and should give an earlier Sell signal. Moving averages have no default values, of course.


I presume its tailored to line up the entry point?No, that is really just happenstance - indicators are tailored to the entire uptrend, utilising reaction Lows in exactly the same way as you do with trendlines. The idea is to use the shortest time possible, consistent with not triggering any sell signals while the uptrend is still strong. Fine tuning will continue as the uptrend progresses in that any indicator giving an isolated, unsupported signal will have its period extended to bring it into line with all the other indicators. The idea is to end up with a suite of very different indicators, but with all having approximately the same level of sensitivity.


Good on you holders for holding, and in a few cases, adding during the uptrend.That's called pyramiding, and is the opposite of averaging down, where you buy more of a falling stock.

Pyramiding good.

Averaging down Bad.

[evilroyrule]

Congrats to holders, but i think you should be very meticulous about setting your stops.

I cant see a longterm future for this company, eventually their model will cease to generate anything meaningful and they'll be worth 9/10ths of ****-all.

legs, you holding a crystal ball there? no buy back today???

[Corporate]

Phaedurs, I haven't had a chance to read you post. But what do you think of the action today? I hadn't set a stop so still holding.

[evilroyrule]

Phaedurs, I haven't had a chance to read you post. But what do you think of the action today? I hadn't set a stop so still holding.

**** corp, just had a look, a low of 55!!!!!!!! only dwn 5% at the mo, massive volume. whats up????

[Phaedrus]

This is quite strange activity - the intraday Low was 55 cents!

If the Close is 70 cents or higher, no sell signals will be generated.
A Close of 69 cents will trigger 1 Sell signal,
68 cents 2 sell signals
67 cents 3 sell signals
and a Close of 66 cents would generate 4 sell signals.

[Xerof]

Cheers Phaedrus


Pyramiding good.

Averaging down Bad.

lots of people still averaging down I'm afraid

[Xerof]

Holy cow... I though ERR was joking, but heavy volume selloff

Ph, this will trigger OBV signal won't it?

[Corporate]

This is quite strange activity - the intraday Low was 55 cents!

If the Close is 70 cents or higher, no sell signals will be generated.
A Close of 69 cents will trigger 1 Sell signal,
68 cents 2 sell signals
67 cents 3 sell signals
and a Close of 66 cents would generate 4 sell signals.

Jeez, thanks for the prompt response. Crazy price actions! The ASX should be asking the company to explain..

[Phaedrus]

Ph, this will trigger an OBV sell signal won't it?Depending on what you are using for a signal line and what the final volume is, the answer is probably yes.

[Corporate]

I had significant profits on the table, and I'm out. It just doesn't feel right.

[shasta]

I had significant profits on the table, and I'm out. It just doesn't feel right.

Back to 69.5c - someone must have been playing silly games to try & trigger stop losses, wheres the ASX notice?

[Caesius]

So I am far from at expert, but I'm struggling to understand how this happened!

It looked like there was about 2m shares that went through at 55c - I thought ASX had systems in place to stop wildly low sales. Or did someone actually sell their way through the depth on the buyers side???

http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/5699/volumechart.png

[Beagle]

I had significant profits on the table, and I'm out. It just doesn't feel right.

I'm with you and also had significant profits on the table and locked these in by selling 70% of my stake.

Its extremly unsettling to see the stock plummett to such an extent, (55 cents), on a intra day basis. Fact is the company has been buying back its on stock on what is best described as an agressive basis but is getting close to the end of its run interms of the number permitted.

I can't help but wonder how much of their remaining powder the company shot off today in terms of the buy-back to defend the share price. Tomorrow's buy-back notice and the remaining number permitted by the buy-back will be extremly interesting reading. Don't they have to go back to shareholders for approval to buy more than 10% of their stock ? Is more than 10% permitted within any 12 month period and if not what effect on the SP once the company has exhausted its ammo ?

Been a good run and am tempted to sell the lot but will retain 30% of my holding and see what happens tomorrow.

[Beagle]

So I am far from at expert, but I'm struggling to understand how this happened!

It looked like there was about 2m shares that went through at 55c - I thought ASX had systems in place to stop wildly low sales. Or did someone actually sell their way through the depth on the buyers side???

http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/5699/volumechart.png

Someone must have really bashed the buy side, what else would explain this wild move ?

Remember 30 million odd shares came of escrow recently, I suspect the seller was the holder of these shares previously held under escrow.

[Entrep]

Sold my lot today at close - don't understand what happened and happy to lock in my profits.

Luckily, in this case, I didn't have a stop in place.

[Caesius]

So let me get this straight. If someone had had a conservative 20% stop loss, it would have been triggered today and they would be out of pocket to the tune of something non-trivial?

I'd be far from surprised if this sort of thing happened on the NZX. But the Aussie market?

[soulman]

Yep, stop losses are dangerous.

Must be the escrowed shares, if there were released recently. Could be the end of the run though since it has really run hard.

[buns]

Just checked out the SP, and got a big shock at 68.5c, then read over here and saw it was down to 55c!!

I've never seen that happen!

The buying is coming back strong however, but to strong for personel investors and probably to quick for insto's. Is it the buyback, can they buy back with no notice?

To many unknowns here...

[buns]

Ha computer to slow to place an ASB order.Now there is under an hr left in the day with a huge buy order at the top of the queue, its probably worth waiting overnight to see what kind of buyback notice we get for tomorrow, and maybe some explaining/disclosure from CFE on this movement.

[Beagle]

Okay now the market has closed and I've got my heart beat under 300 beats per minute, lol, lets have an objective look at what happened today.

1. A large seller / sellers smashed a huge lot of shares out, this is an indisputeable fact and drove the SP down to 55 cents..
2. Before today the company had been aggressivly buying back its stock and had bought 39.9 million shares with 14.15 million to go under the current buy back programme.
3. Buyer / buyers drove the share price up aggressivly from 55 cents, (conjecture but I believe the company played a major part in this and may have substaintially excercised its remaining ability to buy back its own stock, 14.15 million, remember 19.7 million shares changed hands today.
4. I believe, (but this could be proved wrong), that they have to go back to shareholders to get approval for a further buy-back of greater than 10% of the issued stock.
5. I believem (but again an not absolutly sure of Australian Stock Exchange rules in this regard), they may only be allowed to buy back 10% of their stock within any 12 month period and bearing in mind they only started the buy-back in November they are nearly all done.
6. There's no question the buy-back and the manner its been aggressivly conducted has supported the SP.

At the close 1.89 million were bid for at 68.5 cents by four buyers, this suggests buying interest over and above the buy-back volume.

Where too from here. I'm f#cked if I know, that's why I sold out 70% of my holding. If they go down I'll be happy I sold most of them, and may consider buying some more again, if they go up, I'll be happy to get some more profit.
Taking into account the extreme volatility I'm happy with my decision today.

Very interested to hear others viewpoints and their methodology of coping with this sort of extreme SP event.

[Xerof]

I've seen this on FX trading platforms in my past life - some dickhead broker puts in a sell order at 'market' with a few extra zero's on the volume.......and the automated selling goes berserk

If you look at the course of trades, the selling was all in less than a minute or so. The fact nothing has been reversed as an error by the Exchange though suggests the dickhead actually wanted volume out in a hurry.......

ps would have also triggered stops as well

[buns]

My holdings have not changed. But did have about 50 different ideas in the last 20 mins. I'll be glued in to my screen 11.30 - 12.30 tomorrow!

Nice post Rodger. The one thing I'm interested is the sharp selling. CFE need to find out what happened here and fast. If it was a mistake, or release of shares of some sort the market will be ok with this. But a retail/insto investor selling down in a hurry will not look good. Has the drive of late been these guys jumping on the buyback for a quick 2 week profit?

This could not have happened at a worst possible time. In my head, the buyback was going to carry right on untill Marampa sale rumor/Ex divy time, which would have kept the SP rising or afloat near mid year, getting near the $1 range. Now this? It could be a huge road block. As it is right around that 60/70 range CFE have never been able to push on from.

It's also another reason to scare of people like me who are trying so hard to find a reason to hold CFE long.

[Phaedrus]

So let me get this straight. If someone had had a conservative 20% stop loss, it would have been triggered today and they would be out of pocket to the tune of something non-trivial?If their stop was based on intraday prices then yes, they would be out of pocket - and someone with an even more "conservative" 25% stop would have lost even more.
The lesson? "Conservative" stops are unsatisfactory because you give too much back to the market if/when they are hit. A much tighter 8% trailing stop based on the Close such as suggested in post #905 would NOT have been hit.


Yep, stop losses are dangerous.Nah. Let me tell you what IS dangerous, Soulman. Having NO exit strategy. Trailing stops are a crude, simple device and it is easy to find other technical indicators that outperform them, but they beat the socks off having no exit strategy at all.

[buns]

Guys - An email reply from TS.

Sure he won't mind this being shared as my questions are the same as everyones here.

-----------

No explanation! Asx now investigating at our request! Someone planned this and made a hell of a lot of money by shorting! Another likely scenerio a takeover iminent, drop our price to buy cheaper! Buy back is reported daily so mkt is informed daily! Cfe took advantage buy buying back more in 60's rather than 70's! Still less than 50% of total volume today! All assets in perfect shape, infact LRS and FEL both doubled in value in 2 weeks! We own 19% and 16%! Cash position very strong!
Tony sage

----------

[percy]

Guys - An email reply from TS.

Sure he won't mind this being shared as my questions are the same as everyones here.

-----------

No explanation! Asx now investigating at our request! Someone planned this and made a hell of a lot of money by shorting! Another likely scenerio a takeover iminent, drop our price to buy cheaper! Buy back is reported daily so mkt is informed daily! Cfe took advantage buy buying back more in 60's rather than 70's! Still less than 50% of total volume today! All assets in perfect shape, infact LRS and FEL both doubled in value in 2 weeks! We own 19% and 16%! Cash position very strong!
Tony sage

----------
buns,
thank you for sharing.good work.

[evilroyrule]

buns,
thank you for sharing.good work.

good work. i wonder if he gets paid per !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. not sure how that worked by shorting, does he mean they set themselves up the day before. coz if yu look at the trades, all dropped at once, before climbing back up. so not sure how you make money doing that??? im not in cfe anymore, but if i were i wldnt worry so much as where it went during the day as where it finished up. funny shennagins tho....

[buns]

Not much to take from it

He also has no idea...I hope. Shorting hm?

The 2nd half of his email is just selling CFE back to me in a way. Not sure what to read into the takeover comment, anyone trying to drop the price would know that CFE can raise it quite easily/quickly with the buyback.

Whilist in the Marampa sale process, we probably are a possible takeover target. And with the buyback happening before it, CFE has more rights in deciding what is fair value.

[Xerof]

Sage couldn't tell you the truth, even if he knew, so don't read anything into his comments. If he has facts, you'll get an announcement

As you say, best to watch developments more closely than usual over the next few days

what an ironic turn of events given the discussion being had over the course of the day

[JBmurc]

If TS is right in thinking a major investor shorted CFE didn't the shorter do well as going off the posts here many sold and helped the shorter out and once the SP had moved down enough he brough back his short and help drive the SP back-up very smart ..
Wasn't around to watch all the action but even if I was I wouldn't have sold--- too much cash too many assets---may sell some round $1 later this year

[Phaedrus]

Here is an updated CFE chart - I have added an OBV plot and an 8% Trailing Stop as discussed in post #905.

Of the 10 indicators shown here, 2 have triggered Sell signals.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CFE218am.gif

[Brut]

Yes, today will be interesting & see what update we get before opening?

I was out all day yesterday so didn't see all the action. I'm still holding but may have sold yesterday if I saw it drop to 55c.

[Xerof]

I see from the BB notice this morning, they shot a lot of bullets yesterday, and the average was remarkably high as well - 69.23 cents.

Less than 2m firepower remaining under the current BB regime

[Corporate]

The buy back soaked of 12.4m shares yesterday, leaving only 1.7m to go. Imagine how ugly it would have got without it!

[Lego_Man]

Why?

Agree with your points on stops.

They have no operations. They rely on the greater fool theory to make money. If commodities correct they will be hammered the hardest.

[Stranger_Danger]

Umm, was that reply really from Tony Sage?

He sounds like an excited child or something. Scary.

[buns]

Yep it was TS. He is very approachable.

Ha ‘scary’.. A little bit, he would have been a tad on edge when I contacted him. I know what you mean though, pure salesmen... Value is never far from his mind.

[Beagle]

The buy back soaked of 12.4m shares yesterday, leaving only 1.7m to go. Imagine how ugly it would have got without it!

Very ugly and neither you, I or anyone else selling would have got a price just under 70 cents.

Very "interesting" approach taken by the company in the execution of the BB. Paid an average price higher than the average on the day...so "we took advantage" of the fall comment rings a little hollow and the fact that the company used nearly all its allocated BB resources in one day is an interesting use of funds seeing as they have all year to execute the buy-back.

They're all but out of ammo for the BB so either the company knows something we don't, there's a takeover imminent which might explain the share price irregularity which I have to say looks prima facie like share price "manipulation" or the price will probably fall once the BB is finished which is obviously imminent.

I think the latter theory is more likely hence yesterday's decision to sell the majority of my stake. I'm now not convinced the buy-back has been executed in an entirely optimal manner.

[evilroyrule]

Yep it was TS. He is very approachable.

Ha ‘scary’.. A little bit, he would have been a tad on edge when I contacted him. I know what you mean though, pure salesmen... Value is never far from his mind.

no factual basis whatever, but i had a dream TS was tied up somehow in yesterdays fiasco.......

like i said a while ago, anyone with slicked back hear, AND wears a tshirt under a suit jacket IN promotional photos is up to no good. and that is TA and you can take that to the BANK!!!!!!!!!!!!

[upside_umop]

like i said a while ago, anyone with slicked back hear, AND wears a tshirt under a suit jacket IN promotional photos is up to no good. and that is TA and you can take that to the BANK!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sounds like property developers...haha

[upside_umop]

They have no operations. They rely on the greater fool theory to make money. If commodities correct they will be hammered the hardest.

Agree they could get hammered if commodities crash.

However, their business model has been sound so far. It won't crash when the wind up operations, as they will have liquidated the assets into cash, which they are paying out by capital return/buybacks.

[Beagle]

I'm out completly. What do you guys think is going to happen to the SP when the buy-back is finished...that's clearly a rhetorical, if you don't know just watch the SP...its not going to be pretty.

[buns]

Getting hammered anyway.

85% of mine gone at 66.5c.

Tidy profit, but maybe more valuable are the learnings on how a strong buyback can be so easily manipulated.

[Corporate]

Not looking great today. Seems like bailing yesterday was the right call so far - can easily change though. I sold all of mine at 68.5c.

Without the buy back propping this up, it may head much lower. Looking forward to another buying opportunity if it arises.

[JBmurc]

Agree they could get hammered if commodities crash.

However, their business model has been sound so far. It won't crash when the wind up operations, as they will have liquidated the assets into cash, which they are paying out by capital return/buybacks.

yes as would many commodity shares fact is if Marampa is sold for 300mill+other sales like they are planning this year and CFE then command a massive cash balance to market cap then the outlook would change from risky no operational cashflows(outside royalites)- to a very smart well run company with massive upside through their wide investment base and cash to buy distressed assets at fire sale prices..

--------
CFE Depth very low no much on the boards on either side

[Beagle]

Getting hammered anyway.

85% of mine gone at 66.5c.

Tidy profit, but maybe more valuable are the learnings on how a strong buyback can be so easily manipulated.

I think selling was the right call. There can be no question whatsoever that the aggressive manner of the Buy-back has materially supported the SP in the last couple of months and especially yesterday. Its seems almost inevitable that the SP will decline to its true "unsupported" market value in the immediate period ahead.
The thing is on many days the BB has accounted for over 50% of the volume, especially recently, which seems contrary to good prudent common-sense to me unless there's an imminent external factor of which we're unaware, i.e. if they bought them back in a more balanced way surely they could have got them cheaper ?

Yesterday's buyback in particular begs the question of why so aggressive ? Why do they seem so intent on what appears to be propping up the share price rather than executing the BB in a more rational and prudent manner so as to optimise all remaing shareholders interests ? Theories anyone ?

[geezy]

damn i m out , missed out on a 20% gain :(

[Beagle]

Low today, so far of 62 cents, company is obviously now all out of ammo in regards to the buy-back, maybe 55 cents isn't so silly after all as obviously that large seller caught the company unaware with its pants down in terms of the buy-back so this might be an indicator on where the share price will head with no further buy-back support.

I'd speculate its almost inevitable without further specific company news this company heads into the 50's.

Very difficult to understand the overall rapid buy-back execution, real confidence sapping stuff that one... and will definitly affect my viewpoint on where I may see value buying back in.

[geezy]

well if the 80m comes in , it will certainly change quite a few things :)

[JBmurc]

well if the 80m comes in , it will certainly change quite a few things :)

Yes one day we will find out usually right after one sells out ....IMHO if I really believe the SP would pullback I'd still only sell half of my holding max rather watch a small retrace than a miss a major move north the latter most likely with CFE this year

latest news CFE --

Further Sale of Non Core Securities
The Board of Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX: CFE) (Cape Lambert or the Company) advises that it has now disposed of its entire stake in Speewah Metals Limited (formerly named NiPlats Australia Limited) (Speewah) generating total cash proceeds of approximately $13.6 million

[geezy]

Yes ur right JB , i think i pushed the panic button a bit , but happy so it on the profit and watch and see what pans out after the BB is over.

[Corporate]

Well what a week it was for CFE! Thursdays trading was incredible, and I'm glad I wasn't watching when the price dipped to 55c. I think it was caused by a reasonably large holder wanting out which triggered a waterfall of stops.

Like others have said I'm bemused that CFE soaked up 12.4m shares at an average of 69.5c, when they could have been much more aggressive from 35c-60c.

My gut feeling is that downward pressure continues unless significant news is immanent. I don't think we are quite ready to sell Marampa, so maybe a massive reserve upgrade?

Watching with interest.

[lissica]

yes as would many commodity shares fact is if Marampa is sold for 300mill+other sales like they are planning this year and CFE then command a massive cash balance to market cap then the outlook would change from risky no operational cashflows(outside royalites)- to a very smart well run company with massive upside through their wide investment base and cash to buy distressed assets at fire sale prices..


It doesn't make sense for someone to pay $300mil for Marampa when they can buy CFE for a little bit more. Market cap is $379m, and much of that difference is already in cash. Guess it depends how open the CFE register is.
(*They only have on shareholder holding more than 10%)

[Rif-Raf]

It doesn't make sense for someone to pay $300mil for Marampa when they can buy CFE for a little bit more. Market cap is $379m, and much of that difference is already in cash. Guess it depends how open the CFE register is.
(*They only have on shareholder holding more than 10%)

That is the number that CFE have been touting all along so yes taking over the parent would make even more sense

[lissica]

That is the number that CFE have been touting all along so yes taking over the parent would make even more sense

Yes, that's right $500million is what I've seen touted as well. So really, why buy a $500million asset from a $379m company? Either that guesstimate is off the mark, or it would make more sense to buy the whole company.

[shasta]

Yes, that's right $500million is what I've seen touted as well. So really, why buy a $500million asset from a $379m company? Either that guesstimate is off the mark, or it would make more sense to buy the whole company.

There is also the not so small matter of around $600m required to get Marampa into production, so by buying CFE & getting liquid assets it helps self fund the deal, but for those interested in buying Marampa, do they really want to pay extra to acquire rats & mice holdings, that they will have to sell off themselves?

It would take another wheeler & dealer like Tony Sage to entertain such a task!

[lissica]

There is also the not so small matter of around $600m required to get Marampa into production, so by buying CFE & getting liquid assets it helps self fund the deal, but for those interested in buying Marampa, do they really want to pay extra to acquire rats & mice holdings, that they will have to sell off themselves?

It would take another wheeler & dealer like Tony Sage to entertain such a task!

If you can get the cat and have rats and mice thrown in for free...why not? Set them loose or give the cat a free meal

All I'm saying is that it would be illogical to buy the cat when you can buy the cat + catfood for less.

>,<

[Corporate]

Yes, that's right $500million is what I've seen touted as well. So really, why buy a $500million asset from a $379m company? Either that guesstimate is off the mark, or it would make more sense to buy the whole company.

The company may be capped at $379m but major shareholders won't let it go for that.

[Rif-Raf]

Well what a week it was for CFE! Thursdays trading was incredible, and I'm glad I wasn't watching when the price dipped to 55c. I think it was caused by a reasonably large holder wanting out which triggered a waterfall of stops.

A respected poster on another forum suggested the activity was caused by a large player orchestrating a "stop raid" by dumping a small amount of stock onto market taking out bidders at key support levels, triggering a sharp dive due to stops being hit and automated trading. Same party then mops up near around the bottom. Only have to read the posts in this forum to see how many people got nervous and bailed to see how this could work. If the above is true could be a very positive sign.

[lissica]

The company may be capped at $379m but major shareholders won't let it go for that.

I wasn't trying to imply that they would, just that it didn't make sense at current prices. Double that and they might still do better than paying $500m without the rats and mice ~_~

More than double- I don't know...probably not.

[Lego_Man]

A respected poster on another forum suggested the activity was caused by a large player orchestrating a "stop raid" by dumping a small amount of stock onto market taking out bidders at key support levels, triggering a sharp dive due to stops being hit and automated trading. Same party then mops up near around the bottom. Only have to read the posts in this forum to see how many people got nervous and bailed to see how this could work. If the above is true could be a very positive sign.

Except it was the buyback that mopped up all the shares...

[Beagle]

Latest announcement, only 808,000 to go in the BB. We will soon see where the market really thinks CFE shares are at. See the AGM is scheduled for mid May...it'll be very long time between now and then if there's no corporate news and no buy-back's.

I'm sure we are all acutely aware of the massive unrest in Egypt speading through the Middle East and North Africa. Can't help but ponder the proximitly of the main asset of CFE's, Marampa being so close to this incredible unrest, anyone thinking this might have some effect on potential buyer interest ?

Have a look at this link regarding how extremly grim this unrest is becoming, don't look if you have a weak stomach, its getting real bad. Not a good time to try and sell a major asset in Africa, I would have thought.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/20/world/middleeast/20mideast-protests.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp

[Phaedrus]

I'm glad I wasn't watching when the price dipped to 55c. CFE soaked up 12.4m shares at an average of 69.5c, when they could have been much more aggressive from 55c-60c.I doubt that they could have Corp, because of the very short time that prices were that low. Only 1973 shares changed hands at 55 cents and CFE was below 60 cents for just 25 seconds!!!


Imagine how ugly it would have got without the buyback!I reckon we can get a rough idea by subtracting the buyback activity from the days running totals. This can only be approximate because we do not know exactly when CFE were buying, but I would estimate that without that support, CFE would have closed at 66.5 cents, rather than the 68.5 cents that it did.


Another forum suggested the activity was caused by a large player orchestrating a "stop raid" by dumping stock onto market taking out bidders at key support levels, triggering a sharp dive due to stops being hit and automated trading. Same party then mops up near around the bottom.


Except it was the buyback that mopped up all the shares... Not really - even though it did provide 57% of the days turnover. We can tell from their average buyback price of 69.5 cents that CFE were not buying anywhere near the bottom. It would be good to know who was! Most of the price change activity took place in a 2 minute period over which the price went from 66 to 55 and back up to 66 again. Over this 2 minute perid, 2.2 million shares changed hands for $1.3million. (that's an average price of 61 cents) Trades were going through at the rate of 3 per second!

It certainly looks like an organised raid. Fortunately we can be sure that the ASC will get to the bottom of this and deal severely with any offenders. Right?

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Tom Gardner co-founder ofthe Motley Fool said on CNBC today (from memory but something like this) that Australia is one of the best regulated markets in the world with its protection for investors ... better than the US ...

[Beagle]

Interesting theories but the time honoured theory of a big seller just wanting out and lack of depth to the market holds just as much water if not more, especially seeing as we are now starting to see what the market really thinks of the stock in terms of price with minimal buy-back support - (62 cents and falling a few minutes ago when I looked).

I'm starting to think there's a school of thought that might hold some water that the BB was organised in such a manner as to artifically prop up the share price, so the big seller could get out and take a big profit, now there's a real cynical conspiracy theory for you...

Even if such speculative theoriers are all invalid, the simple fact that a major BB of the stock was completed in such a short time and is now effectivly over, should leave no one with any degree of surprise if the stock continues to head south until there's some meaningful corporate news.

[Xerof]

I think it was a combination of a few factors personally.

I know of at least one 'large' holder who tipped some out over 71 cents, purely on the basis of the BB nearing an end. So that can lead to nothing more than the good old 'more sellers than buyers' on the day IMO

Africa is not known as 'the dark continent' for nothing - a very dodgy place to do business, and I think there is a bit of contagion going to come out of the events further north. If I'm thinking that, perhaps others are too. CFE increasingly has been building interests in that part of the world, and selling off the more stable and easy to shift assets in OZ so perhaps it's risk profile has become untenable for more holders

South Africa is in a bit of strife over security of mining tenements and ownership at the moment, with increasing murmurs of nationalisation. Just research NPK.AX and the Con Court judgement handed down late last year to get insight. Perhaps investors can see that type of activity moving up through the other parts of the continent...

Of course, now the TA is most likely to show lots of signals fired off and into a confirmed downtrend, so that will continue to weigh until another momentous event (in whatever guise that may come) hits the boards.

I thought there were some excellent responses to the price action from various holders here on ST, to protect their profits and move to the sidelines. Well done

[newbe]

Sold down half my holding today for 40% prof. It is just getting to hot in there for me (or maybe too cold would be a better description?) Stock will quite possibly cruise back to lower levels until any new ann's are made. On the brightside now I have some cash, oh what to buy now?!

[Lego_Man]

Sold down half my holding today for 40% prof. It is just getting to hot in there for me (or maybe too cold would be a better description?) Stock will quite possibly cruise back to lower levels until any new ann's are made. On the brightside now I have some cash, oh what to buy now?!

Short commodities.

[newbe]

Short commodities.

Haha yeah sounds a bit too advanced for me yet.

[Beagle]

I think it was a combination of a few factors personally.

I know of at least one 'large' holder who tipped some out over 71 cents, purely on the basis of the BB nearing an end. So that can lead to nothing more than the good old 'more sellers than buyers' on the day IMO

Africa is not known as 'the dark continent' for nothing - a very dodgy place to do business, and I think there is a bit of contagion going to come out of the events further north. If I'm thinking that, perhaps others are too. CFE increasingly has been building interests in that part of the world, and selling off the more stable and easy to shift assets in OZ so perhaps it's risk profile has become untenable for more holders

South Africa is in a bit of strife over security of mining tenements and ownership at the moment, with increasing murmurs of nationalisation. Just research NPK.AX and the Con Court judgement handed down late last year to get insight. Perhaps investors can see that type of activity moving up through the other parts of the continent...

Of course, now the TA is most likely to show lots of signals fired off and into a confirmed downtrend, so that will continue to weigh until another momentous event (in whatever guise that may come) hits the boards.

I thought there were some excellent responses to the price action from various holders here on ST, to protect their profits and move to the sidelines. Well done

Thanks. I feel happy. In at 50 cents about 2 months ago, out at 68 cents average, profit 36%, dare I suggest I profited from such an aggressive buy-back.. There's ample evidence around the world that buy-backs are good for the share price even when executed in a constructive rational and carefully considered manner but this one leaves me wondering about the buyback execution methodology and whether Directors have a bit of egg on their face now the price is already down around 60-61 cents so soon after the buy-back is all but finished, not a good look for Tony's cred I would have thought...

Agree with your comments regarding the dark continent and risks regarding nationalisation, if you and I and i'm sure many other investors are thinking this and watching the terrible events in that part of the world unfold, I'm certain a prudent potential buyer of Marampa would at the very least be factoring these things into an offer that might eventually be forthcoming, if any. $500m looks increasingly like salesman's bluff talk to me. Happy to be out.

[Corporate]

Looking very grim. Shows that you should NEVER fight the market!

[JBmurc]

Looking very grim. Shows that you should NEVER fight the market!

well even I sold half my holding at 64c(paid av 34c) not because I think CFE will crash once the BB stops the mid term picture still points to $1 IMHO
just I think as we can see from the posts on here we could well see some bargains in CFE as holders with profits don't want to see the profit erode so sell ...
I will still keep half because of CFE history could well see re-rate on major deal ann or takeover
If CFE falls to mid 50's I'll be buying again

[Corporate]

If CFE falls to mid 50's I'll be buying again

Me and you both. And a few more days like today and it isn't that far away!!

[Beagle]

Me and you both. And a few more days like today and it isn't that far away!!

The way events are unfolding in the north of Africa and the middle East I don't think either of you will have any trouble gettting a complete fill and good luck with it.

Hard to see any buyer stumping up serious money for Marampa in the current extremly unstable political environment, risk of nationalisation anyone ? The risk profile of CFE's assets has changed dramatically IMHO and I'm happy to let it drift down for quite a while now the BB's over.

[Corporate]

The way events are unfolding in the north of Africa and the middle East I don't think either of you will have any trouble gettting a complete fill and good luck with it.

Hard to see any buyer stumping up serious money for Marampa in the current extremly unstable political environment, risk of nationalisation anyone ? The risk profile of CFE's assets has changed dramatically IMHO and I'm happy to let it drift down for quite a while now the BB's over.

Ouch...58.5c...that's below the buy back average

[buns]

Yep the buyback has been a failure for CFE or any long term holder. Luckily we have some pretty active and switched on investors on this thread, able to react and make the most of it.

Tony will be spewing over this. I got the feeling he got sick and tired of CFE constantly being undervalued/not moving, and wanted the buyback to springboard the SP forward. I really don’t feel CFE care to much for the longer term..

Instead its falling back to where we were.. Marampa may prop this up a tad, however come ex divvy and no ‘great’ major projects to come anytime soon. CFE could fall into a lull for quite some time.

I’ve still got a small holding – I’m hoping for a takeover. Otherwise I’ll be selling up post Marampa/before Ex divvy.

[Beagle]

Corporate Ouch...58.5c...that's below the buy back average
I was thinking the same thing myself and am starting to smell something a bit "off" the way the buyback was conducted. 57.5 c when I looked a couple of minutes ago, the stock is basically in free-fall.

Unless there is some rational reason forthcoming, its starting to look like the buy-back was completed in either a reckless or dare I say it carefully constructed manner, I smell a rat relating to the large seller the other day on the same day the company bought back its largest number of shares ever, quite a coincidence don't you think ? Surely the buy-back wasn't orchestrated so the large seller could get out ? Who was the large seller ? On the face of it there's plenty of material there for a stock exchange investigation I would have thought.

If you want a fill in the mid 50's you might as well load your order up now, you'll probably get a fill later today, if not tomorrow. As far as i'm concerned the Buy-back started at 44 cents, I'm interested around there, not before, and that assumes Africa and the middle east doesn't implode completly and there's a satisfactory explanation regarding the BB execution.

[Corporate]

I'm keeping the powder dry. I agree, this could easily end up back in the 40c.

Some big lessons here:

Don't fight the market
If it smells, get out
Never fall in love with a stock

[Beagle]

I'm keeping the powder dry. I agree, this could easily end up back in the 40c.

Some big lessons here:

Don't fight the market
If it smells, get out
Never fall in love with a stock

Couldn't agree more, well said.

[shasta]

I'm keeping the powder dry. I agree, this could easily end up back in the 40c.

Some big lessons here:

Don't fight the market
If it smells, get out
Never fall in love with a stock

Especially the last 2 comments, i've been burnt before with a couple of stocks "believing in the story", & these were the companies who emailed me constantly!

What surprises me though is the actual risk profile of CFE has been reduced due to there new "ongoing & longer term focus", taking up equity & convertible notes & royalties in projects rather than trade sales, which are more "one off" type events & less likely to gain institutional interest

The CFE model now appears to be a hybrid of DGR (buying/building up & spinning out projects) & RCO, a dividend paying company whose primary business is to buy into royalty agreements to provide regular revenue/cashflows (they even have a physical gold royalty agreement with OGC!)

[JBmurc]

Especially the last 2 comments, i've been burnt before with a couple of stocks "believing in the story", & these were the companies who emailed me constantly!

What surprises me though is the actual risk profile of CFE has been reduced due to there new "ongoing & longer term focus", taking up equity & convertible notes & royalties in projects rather than trade sales, which are more "one off" type events & less likely to gain institutional interest

The CFE model now appears to be a hybrid of DGR (buying/building up & spinning out projects) & RCO, a dividend paying company whose primary business is to buy into royalty agreements to provide regular revenue/cashflows (they even have a physical gold royalty agreement with OGC!)

Yes I agree if CFE do fall further It will fall into a screaming buy territory IMHO esp. if the 80mill MCC payment is on the way can,t believe it hasn't been sorted or maybe it has ....... Marampa even sold at a lower 300mill level will give one very large cash backing 80cps+ in cash .....

[JBmurc]

buyback is over CFE now has 571mill shares buyer driving SP 4c major seller get out on the BB did TS know seller?? who know $1 SP some time this year IMHO

[geezy]

i will still be keeping a close eye on this one :) cant ignore it !!

[buns]

Feels like the buyback is on again.. A couple of days of nice growth.

A very interesting 3-4 months ahead

[Snapper]

I've been a little bemused by some of the comments about CFE lately. I can understand TAs getting out during the recent drop but to think there's something fishy going on is reading a bit much into it. It's a small cap Australian miner and swings of 15-20% or more are pretty standard stuff. Onwards and upwards I say.

[Beagle]

I've been a little bemused by some of the comments about CFE lately. I can understand TAs getting out during the recent drop but to think there's something fishy going on is reading a bit much into it. It's a small cap Australian miner and swings of 15-20% or more are pretty standard stuff. Onwards and upwards I say.

Have to admitt to being somewhat surprised at the resilliance of the SP seeing as the BB is over. Still, IMHO questions remain about how the BB was executed so its hard to have 100% confidence.

[Corporate]

This thread have been very quiet recently. The share price looks like its trending lower. I still really like CFE at certain prices :-)

[corporateraider]

Yeah me too, at 30c, or any number south of that.

[float]

better quality discussions to be viewed on another forum.... this one seems to be a running commentry of the sp

[corporateraider]

Is the spelling any better on the4 other thread?

[Caesius]

better quality discussions to be viewed on another forum.... this one seems to be a running commentry of the sp

And this is why I browse ST instead of [that other forum]. People discuss and analyze stocks based on substance rather than BS.

It's taken me some years, but I've learned that the market is never wrong. I've never understood why some people feel the need to talk positive about a stock. Just talk about the stock, as it is right now. Which IMO is further south for CFE right now.

disc ex holder

[float]

I agree there is a fair amount of hoo-rah on the other forum, but it certainly isn't all BS.

I appreciate the fundamental information that people contribute to the forum whether it's good or bad.
Iron ore prices, relevant Sierra Leona information, future prospects for the company etc.. alot of which I haven't seen on this thread.

I apologize for my post, it was hasty, and i was annoyed at coperateraiders comment. I would not post on another thread stating I'd buy their shares at half there current trading price... Why would you invest in a company if you gave it hardly any Enterprise value?
Not really a post that conveys analytical substance.

[corporateraider]

Gidday Boat
Yeah my comment was flippant and it reflects my low opinion of CFE. But why couldn't the price be 30c? It was not that much more than that only a few months ago before the buy back started and the fundamentals have not changed.
In my analysis CFE is an investment company and typically these trade at a discount to NTA. They are not valued on PE as there is no regular income stream and the company is only as good as its last deal.
I could be very wrong about the African assets, but I can't see how they can be so much more valuable than similar assets that have sold recently in OZ.
I could go on about the puffery of Sage, but its a waste of my time.
I hope that you do well!

[Corporate]

Well Thursday's announcement was a bit of a nothing. It was a nice to know...but where is the scoping study?

CFE's market cap is now just under $300m. Has anyone summed listed investments and cash recently?

[bung5]

Market cap: $297m @ 52c a share.

Cash and Receivables: $100m
Debt: 0
ASX share holdings: $80m
MCC court case: $80m

=260 mil

Value that the market is placing on the other assets: $37m

Extra assets:

Marampa = 400m
Sappes = 50m
Pinnacle =80m
Leichardt = 100m
Cape Lam South = 20m

Total = 650m

From what TS has mentioned there could be sale announced by the end of the month on Sappes and Marampa by end of financial year ( july).

Combined value of CFE = 910 million

IMO of course ;)

[bung5]

makes a NTA price of around $1.50

[geezy]

All CFE needs to do is own one producing mine IMHO

[Corporate]

I don't bother including the $80m from MCC. Been way to long - it's a bonus if CFE gets it.

[bung5]

Need to get the timing right to buy some more shares. Shareprice trending lower but also could be the sale of marampa that will send shareprice a lot higher

[Mothman]

Phaedrus can you please post an updated chart of CFE with analysis? By my estimate there was some support at around 50c but this has fallen through. What indicators should we watch to buy. However I am more of a fundamental buyer at heart and still like the company and I have made some good $$ in it before.

Assets I like: Leichardt Copper, African iron ore shares and royalty, australis phosphate

Assets I am unsure of: Marampa (I realise though this is the company maker so it makes the shares so hard to value)




Disc: none held ATM

[Phaedrus]

Hi Mothman, I would be very happy to post a chart for you, but in the interests of encouraging independent thought, I feel that you should first have a shot at it yourself. Go to BigCharts and using their Interactive chart facility enter AU:CFE. Then select as many indicators as you can from those that I used in the chart on page 63 of this thread. You will not be able to reproduce all of them, but that doesn't matter in the slightest. Where I used a 17 day Slow Stochastic oscillator, replace this with their 17 day Williams'%R which is essentially the same thing. See how you go - you could post the chart here if you wanted to. Then tell me whether you think CFE is a Buy/Hold/Sell or a "Stand aside". I doubt that we will disagree.
PS If you really, really, truly want me to post a chart, say so and I will.

[Stranger_Danger]

As a New Zealander and having lived through 9 years of the Clark Government, could Phaedrus please explain what this "independant thought" thing is and, more importantly, whether I like or dislike it?

[Phaedrus]

This may appear to be a radical concept, SD, but the general idea is that you think about things and arrive at your own conclusions free from the influence or control of others. Ultimately the aim is to reach the point where you are not relying on others for support or assistance. Personally, I find this to be a pleasurable state, but I am aware that some people do not and in fact want to be told what to think. There is, of course, something worse than being told what to think - being told what to feel. SD, you are asking me whether you should like or dislike "independent thought". I find this deeply disturbing. I have therefore discussed the matter with my resident analyst and she thinks that "independent thought" is a good thing that is well worth striving for - and that whether you like it or not is immaterial. She says that trying to blame the government for your own intellectual laziness is a cop-out. Harsh words SD, but I think she might be right!

[JBmurc]

CFE bouncing strong today back through the 50c resistance point-- like many of my shares once the fearful weak holders have ended the smart bargain hunters coming back now depending on Japan which I really hope goes well for the people and the nuclear plant can be finally cooled down and shut-off...then the market will reset and once again move forward and see the new re-building demand for resources
CFE has much to be announcing which will re-rate strong depending on which ann. --MCC payment,sappes sale,marampa JORC,sale etc

[geezy]

Mr Tony Sage mopping it up by all himself. truly a hero !

[STRAT]

As a New Zealander and having lived through 9 years of the Clark Government, could Phaedrus please explain what this "independant thought" thing is and, more importantly, whether I like or dislike it?lol SD.
Ive been told I sometimes take independent thought to the point of being plain anti-social.
I like it and I like myself. I will continue to like it and like myself even if everyone else disagrees with me :lol:

[JBmurc]

Mr Tony Sage mopping it up by all himself. truly a hero !

yes a rich hero that truely knows whats going on and how to make himself even richer

[Mothman]

Thanks Phaedrus for the encouragement - I was just being lazy.

I tried the interactive chart but it wouldn't load for some reason so have posted the advanced chart.

I confess to buying some CFE today. But am not fully invested yet.

I think a TA specialist would say: "stay on the sidelines" until there is confirmation of a new uptrend. I think I just feel way more comfortable with fundamental analysis, but with a plan!

[JBmurc]

Tony sage stated outcome on MCC Vs CFE on Cape lambert north 80mill payment to be due early April not long now till we get are extra 80mill should push the SP backm into the 60-70 trading range quick smart

[geezy]

hI JB, when did mr Sage said the outcome will be by early April? was it in an announcement? Thanks a bunch!

[JBmurc]

hI JB, when did mr Sage said the outcome will be by early April? was it in an announcement? Thanks a bunch!

Have heard it a couple times recent times was from a HC poster that had a e-mail reply in that it stated the T.S believed it would be resolved early april decision wise
did think I read in a ann. from CFE on the matter as well few months back now has been some time

[shasta]

Have heard it a couple times recent times was from a HC poster that had a e-mail reply in that it stated the T.S believed it would be resolved early april decision wise
did think I read in a ann. from CFE on the matter as well few months back now has been some time

CFE - Settlement of Sale of Lady Loretta Interest

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CFE&E=ASX&N=535777

Intereting comments from TS