PPP = Cash and they blew it!

[Ketel One]

Thanks Soletrader for sharing your input, it makes sense.

Can anyone get this map out of here, I've tryed and failed, it's a gem and this picture tells a thousand words. It is what soletrader is implying

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NZO&E=ASX&N=311333

Here you go: http://iforce.co.nz/i/a1f64d72ff84eeb80ceeffd49328d580.jpg

[soletrader]

Thanks tricha, and well done Ketel One. Now it's clear for all to see.

[KentBrockman]

Eric Matthews always had a striong belief in the potential of this area (and undoubtedly still has over at AWE), but more recently PPP has been strenghtened in my view, both on the board, and by substantial shareholders, who are not only experienced in identifying potential value in companies like PPP, but are investors for profit (traders). These guys are not interested in long term positions just for the sake of it.

PT

I also believe that the true object of desire for NZO is the area surrounding Tui (along with the existing cashflow of course), but it will be difficult to get this appropriately valued in any takeover scenario, due to the uncertainty involved.

In a back of the envelope valuation over at HC I could only assign 4c or so to this while arriving at an all up value of 61 cents.

When Tomkinson bought into PPP two or so years ago, Strachan wrote this in Stockanalysis:

"Canny Perth-based mining identity Neil Tomkinson, long-time business partner of geologist extraordinaire Josh Pitt, has emerged with 33.5 million Pan Pacific Petroleum shares representing 7.7% of its listed securities and has been invited to join its board.

StockAnalysis believes Pitt is not far behind him in this investment. Clearly Tomkinson and Pitt agree with StockAnalysis, and have backed their judgement with their own "hard earned".

Shareholders of Pan Pac should be cheered by the arrival of Tomkinson on the board, since he has a strong reputation as a thrifty business manager and a record of making money for himself and the shareholders he represents."

It looks like we are in good hands.

[digger]

Some thoughts from the UK.

Eight or nine years ago Tui used to be mapped as one big structure, probably the largest of the four main structures which at the time were in PEP 38460. After the initial Tui discovery in February 2003, 3D seismic was aquired over 350 km2 of the Tui area during April/May 2003, and in the light of this, mapping of the area became more sophisticated and the orginal Tui was broken down into it's composite parts. But of some reason best known to our directors, or the joint venture partners in general, most of the original Tui structure dropped off the published maps for three or four years, with the exception of the three discoveries to date, i.e. Tui, Amokura and Pateke.

But the other immediately adjacent structures are still there as we can see from the 2008 Annual Report, i.e.Tui SW, Tui SE, Tui NE, Kahu Crest and Kahu Stratigraphic, and there is no reason why they should not each contain a share of the oil pool envisaged in the original Tui mapping.

Eric Matthews always had a striong belief in the potential of this area (and undoubtedly still has over at AWE), but more recently PPP has been strenghtened in my view, both on the board, and by substantial shareholders, who are not only experienced in identifying potential value in companies like PPP, but are investors for profit (traders). These guys are not interested in long term positions just for the sake of it.

PT

There is another strange thing about this greater area that before development of TUI had one former NZO and PPP holder up in arms. It was the getting of a mining permit about 4 years ago over an area that they at the time had found no oil.The seismic was only 2 D and not as detailed as with the latest 3D just completed and ana-lysised. This area covers and includes the areas now shown in the map,that is south and east of TUI.I have always felt that the JV ers confident of success in this area.
Digger.

[boysy]

up to 31.5 on the asx are we expecting an firb announcement soon then

[gulf]

a strong group of shareholders that together with Tattersfield and Daniels that will not give the company away.

[rotweiller]

Blimey - had a sell order for half my holding @nz$0.37 as a cheeky one when NZO announced their buy-in.
Reckon I had cancelled the order when their first allocation was filled but have just received confirmation of the sale @ 37c, thru Direct.
Not crying in my cups - may well prove lucky or else the pensioner needs some more computer lessons.
Cheers to all holders and Happy New Year.
Rotweiller

[upside_umop]

gee, it is rocketing up!

well done to all who held on...doesnt look like i will be buying back in below that price.

i still wonder whether they will make a take over that quickly....

edit:although i do notice volume is very light...even my amount of shares would knock it back down well into 35. then again i cant buy back in without knocking it upto 40!

i'd expect once approval is given the shareprice may leap, but if NZO makes it known that they are not doing anything at this stage...the bottom will fall out momentarily. ie maybe to 32ish

[KentBrockman]

i'd expect once approval is given the shareprice may leap, but if NZO makes it known that they are not doing anything at this stage...the bottom will fall out momentarily. ie maybe to 32ish

Maybe, though I think that if NZO makes a move, at will almost certainly have to be prior to more drilling around Tui.

[the machine]

had a look at ppp chart over 10 years compared the asx200 and the recent action by nzo and others has certainly widened the gap.


as regards buying on asx today - topped out at 32.5c and finished at 32c - a very solid day against backdrop of market down.

expect ppp will power ahead even more


my own portfolio now back to same $ level as dec 2007 but still down $20,000 from april 2008 when nzo prc and kas were in vogue

M

[the machine]

[QUOTE=upside_umop;239442]gee, it is rocketing up!


edit:although i do notice volume is very light...even my amount of shares would knock it back down well into 35. then again i cant buy back in without knocking it upto 40!



asx volume substantially higher than nzx and seems like last hour on asx the sp pushed higher.

M

[soletrader]

Maybe, though I think that if NZO makes a move, at will almost certainly have to be prior to more drilling around Tui.


Agree entirely with that. And I know most here would like an exit on a T/O, including me. But I am not convinced that will be the outcome, despite broker comment questioning any other motive. Could be a few more hands to play yet.

Having said that and as previously stated, with the new board in place I think the company is definately in play, but whether NZO goes 'all in' we will have to see.

[Nitaa]

Maybe, though I think that if NZO makes a move, at will almost certainly have to be prior to more drilling around Tui.Correct. expect more to happen over the comng weeks.

I cant help but thinking that TR and AT are too much in each others pockets for my liking. AT might have his exit stratergy but what is TR's?

[macduffy]

Agree entirely with that. And I know most here would like an exit on a T/O, including me. But I am not convinced that will be the outcome, despite broker comment questioning any other motive. Could be a few more hands to play yet.

Having said that and as previously stated, with the new board in place I think the company is definately in play, but whether NZO goes 'all in' we will have to see.

So what do you see as other possible scenarios?
Someone else other than NZO having a tilt at PPP?
PPP and NZO co-existing peacefully?
NZO influencing PPP to wind up and cash out?

[boysy]

looks as though it could be another good day for ppp buyer lining up to buy into ppp i guess we will have to follow the austrialian lead.

[boysy]

ppp closes up at 32.5 on the asx today

[friedegg]

ppp closes up at 32.5 on the asx today
thats good,maybe nzo should sell now for a couple mill profit and send you pppers into a bear reality

[macduffy]

thats good,maybe nzo should sell now for a couple mill profit and send you pppers into a bear reality

Don't see it happening.
Who's the buyer for NZO's millions?

;)

[tricha]

thats good,maybe nzo should sell now for a couple mill profit and send you pppers into a bear reality

The bear reality is Cash is King and PPP has got it.;)

[boysy]

not to mention the harm done to nzos credibility if they try and take profit. price still cheap for whats up for offer though just think how much tui is worth to nzos current share price.

[friedegg]

not to mention the harm done to nzos credibility if they try and take profit. price still cheap for whats up for offer though just think how much tui is worth to nzos current share price.
well theres a good comparison , although nzo has more hands in pies than ppp,what @1.22 is the tui(reserves) part of nzos price?pikes worth about 38cents of it,cash?kupe? and tui?...
anyway nzo probably knows what they should be able to get it for cause tony will be guiding them

[the machine]

ppp closes up at 32.5 on the asx today

it seems to have all come at a rush in last couple of hours trading

M

[tricha]

well theres a good comparison , although nzo has more hands in pies than ppp,what @1.22 is the tui(reserves) part of nzos price?pikes worth about 38cents of it,cash?kupe? and tui?...
anyway nzo probably knows what they should be able to get it for cause tony will be guiding them

Yeah TR has a treasure map ;)

[soletrader]

So what do you see as other possible scenarios?
Someone else other than NZO having a tilt at PPP?
PPP and NZO co-existing peacefully?
NZO influencing PPP to wind up and cash out?


My reservations are just a caution to me as much as to anybody else, as we can only speculate on what is going on. I want it to be the case that NZO make a grab for increased Tui assets and the cash. as now would be a good time to realise a good wedge of personal assets at a premium. But I can't base my 2009 strategy on a PPP exit which is still a posibility, not a fact.

NZO may well have done enough to put off a nother party having a tilt, but we can't be sure of their end game yet. freidegg makes the point that they are likely to be aware if PPP have any imminent expansion plans, and they may fancy the chance of 15-20% of them as well,

Just not counting my chickens yet, that's all.

[macduffy]

Fair enough, soletrader.

It's certainly aint over until it's over. I had the erroneous impression that you had some other specific outcome in mind.

Cheers

[boysy]

people willing to buy at 39 though on small volume

[digger]

people willing to buy at 39 though on small volume
As the 39 buyer is still there,is it not more correct to say that there are few sellers at 39.
This recent price rise might seems good for holders in this market but imagine what the price would be in normal times.In time NZO will be seen as making the right move in a down market. I still hope they clear this one up smartly and move on to another cheap buy out before the market lifts. Nzo may have only 6 months of window to complete this type of move.As posted on NZO market volitity is decreasing so that means less uncertainty going forwards.Less uncertaintl is positive for markets.

[Sehnsucht888]

250,000 shares through at 40c on the NZX. Haven't seen that price for quite a while. Good volume, and momentum.

[boysy]

good point i havent seen 40 cents while ive been holding this share. looks as though buyers are outpacing sellers both on the asx and nzx.

[Sehnsucht888]

yep, and anohter 100,000 through at 40. July 07 it was and the highest close reached was 41. On target to better that this week.

[the machine]

asx hit 34.5 briefly today - still finished up half a cent @ 33c au on better volume than yesterday.

is next news:
- ppp monthly response
- 2009 drilling firming up
- nzo firb decision
- ppp quarterly


opec seem to be talking up more cuts, inturn to lift POO so that bodes well for sp as well

M

[tricha]

asx hit 34.5 briefly today - still finished up half a cent @ 33c au on better volume than yesterday.

is next news:
- ppp monthly response
- 2009 drilling firming up
- nzo firb decision
- ppp quarterly


open seem to be talking up more cuts, inturn to lift POO so that bodes well for sp as well

M

1 - PPP quarterly, cash is chasing the current share price :)
2 - Yes 2009 treasure chest fast approaching.
3 - NZO better hurry up, because of 1 and\or 2.
4 - NZO also better hurry up, we know :p

[boysy]

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) has been told by the Australian Foreign Investment
Review Board that it has no objection to NZOG increasing its stake in Pan Pacific
Petroleum (PPP) in terms of the Australian Government’s foreign investment policy.

In December NZOG acquired a strategic stake in PPP and now has voting power of 14.865% in
PPP (as determined under the Australian Corporations Act).

Ahead of acquiring the stake, NZOG applied to the Australian Foreign Investment Review
Board (FIRB) to acquire up to 19.99 per cent and/or all of PPP.

In due course, NZOG will assess its position to determine what, if any, further steps
might be taken.

[the machine]

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) has been told by the Australian Foreign Investment
Review Board that it has no objection to NZOG increasing its stake in Pan Pacific
Petroleum (PPP) in terms of the Australian Government’s foreign investment policy.

In December NZOG acquired a strategic stake in PPP and now has voting power of 14.865% in
PPP (as determined under the Australian Corporations Act).

Ahead of acquiring the stake, NZOG applied to the Australian Foreign Investment Review
Board (FIRB) to acquire up to 19.99 per cent and/or all of PPP.

In due course, NZOG will assess its position to determine what, if any, further steps
might be taken.



Came through a bit quicker than expected.

See the esop are excluded from this.


pending any move by nzo, one would expect ppp sp to still gain today, even though dow dropped.

m

[boysy]

well this firmly puts the ball in nzos court wonder if they will act quick or try and draw out the process

[the machine]

well this firmly puts the ball in nzos court wonder if they will act quick or try and draw out the process



acting quickly to aquire extra 5% would be in my [and nzo's] best interest.

expect parties that have been buying ppp over last few weeks will be very satisified with their decisions and the firb ok will underpin further purchases by speculators - thus nzo should grab what shares they can under 40c au, pending any formal takeover.

M

[boysy]

looks as though the steam will come once again from aus i guess people on the nzx holding their breath to see what happens on the asx.

[stevo1]

acting qickly to aquire extra 5% would be in my [and nzo's] best interest.

expect parties that have been buying ppp over last few weeks will be very satisified with their decisions and the firb ok will underpin further purchases by speculators - thus nzo should grab what shares they can under 40c au, pending any formal takeover.

M

Are those NZO owned bots nipping down the share price in buys/sells of about 400 shares /trade?
Great way to undermine weak holders and/or keep SP down in the event of full takeover(able to offer a lesser price using preceding trading as a basis for offer) while slowly accumulating.Really a no lose strategy for NZO if that is the indeed case.

[Ketel One]

Are those NZO owned bots nipping down the share price in buys/sells of about 400 shares /trade?


Hmm wonder what's going on. The exact same thing (hundreds of trades for around ~400 shares) happened just as or before NZO made their move last time (look back at pg. 39 of this thread).

[Sehnsucht888]

Some formm of program trading it looks like... Same thing is happening on COE today..

[the machine]

the small trades might be a way to suppress sp in short term, to flush out extra sellers for lower cost than otherwise.

if there were 5% of stock on sell side for under au 40c then nzo may pounce and buy the lot [cheaply] before making the t/o.


anyway its good the firb approval is done - next news is either nzo move or ppp monthly response.

also ppp held their own on asx today whilst others lost 3%.

M

[boysy]

will be interesting to see how ppp handles today on the asx

[the machine]

http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/PPP/announcements/4820693

is ppp monthly report

M

[the machine]

[QUOTE=boysy;239846]will be interesting to see how ppp handles today on the asx

after asx average fall yesterday then ppp by holding their own and finishing @ .33 is sort of a defacto rise


M

[boysy]

so over the last month they have increased cash by A$2 million and US$5 million not bad now cash at A$0.26 cents a share. so less than A$40 million for all assets that ppp still holds this is still cheap at these prices.

[boysy]

is 40 cents the new barrier for nzo much like prices below 35 cents where nzo bought up to but not beyond . Is this going to be the strategy until 19.99 % is achieved ?

[macduffy]

is 40 cents the new barrier for nzo much like prices below 35 cents where nzo bought up to but not beyond . Is this going to be the strategy until 19.99 % is achieved ?

Quite likely.
But the real game starts once NZO have their 19.99%. No-one believes that they're going to be content with that!

;)

[boysy]

well not the dramatic volume on either the asx or nzx on the level pre new year. Looks like a bit of buying starting to emerge and a big buy order on the nzx some 1.2 million shares crossed @ NZ$0.408 perhaps the volume is starting to pick up

[the machine]

well not the dramatic volume on either the asx or nzx on the level pre new year. Looks like a bit of buying starting to emerge and a big buy order on the nzx some 1.2 million shares crossed @ NZ$0.408 perhaps the volume is starting to pick up



if same volume on monday and if buyer is nzo then over the 2 days it will trigger another 1% notice - that would spur things along a bit

in times like these the better profit moves from the impatient to the patient

M

[the machine]

Make PNN my HomePage

Market excited about possible takeovers

Marija Zivkovic
Friday, 16 January 2009

AS THE global financial crisis deepens, talk of possible takeover bids for Pan Pacific Petroleum and 3D Oil has been welcome news for investors this week.

above headlines from energy review

M

[boysy]

are nzo also going after nzo for its aus assets. I mean NZO have stated that they believe the oportunities in nz are small and they are looking overseas for other opportunities. if a t/o occurs not only will nzo's share of TUI go up to 22.5 % but its stake in tieke (nzo 12.5 % + ppp 10 %) its stake in hecor (nzo 18.9 % + ppp % 14.09).Then there are ppp significant acreage in the carnavon basin which the market and many people have written off as worthless assets .


Permit Interests: Carnarvon Basin

Permit Reference PPP Interest % Gross Area km2

TL2 23.2 401
TP7[1&2] 4.2 703
TP7[3] 4.2 320
TP7[4] 4.2 225
WA33R 10.0 320
WA256P 10.0 323
WA246P 10.0 323
WA254P[1,3,4] 2.9 243
WA254P[2] 5.2 81
Total 2,616

[Sharp737]

PPP's 10% interest in Maitland is worth a significant amount subject to further appraisal IMO. Some where around the size of Kupe gas wise so yeah, it should be very worth while in the longer term all going well.

Maitland would definitely be a bonus for nzog along with the extra Tui potential of course.

[the machine]

are nzo also going after nzo for its aus assets. I mean NZO have stated that they believe the oportunities in nz are small and they are looking overseas for other opportunities. if a t/o occurs not only will nzo's share of TUI go up to 22.5 % but its stake in tieke (nzo 12.5 % + ppp 10 %) its stake in hecor (nzo 18.9 % + ppp % 14.09).Then there are ppp significant acreage in the carnavon basin which the market and many people have written off as worthless assets .


Permit Interests: Carnarvon Basin

Permit Reference PPP Interest % Gross Area km2

TL2 23.2 401
TP7[1&2] 4.2 703
TP7[3] 4.2 320
TP7[4] 4.2 225
WA33R 10.0 320
WA256P 10.0 323
WA246P 10.0 323
WA254P[1,3,4] 2.9 243
WA254P[2] 5.2 81
Total 2,616


maitland seems to have been loosing traction lately [at least from what tap oil perspective]
corvus looks like might be back in play [400m thick and open at bottom] following santos decision re reindeer development and possible gas hub.

oil assets are good but may take a few years to realise any further value out of them

M

[boysy]

TakenFrom the australian department of resources , energy and tourism

Hydrocarbon Reserves
Initial Reserves - Carnarvon Basin

Field Data Liquids MMbbl* Gas Tcf Gas MMboe1 Date Source

Corvus 0.50 0.1 21.15 Dec-06 DoIR


Maitland 1.65 0.16 28.01 Dec-06 DoIR

[the machine]

TakenFrom the australian department of resources , energy and tourism

Hydrocarbon Reserves
Initial Reserves - Carnarvon Basin

Field Data Liquids MMbbl* Gas Tcf Gas MMboe1 Date Source

Corvus 0.50 0.1 21.15 Dec-06 DoIR


Maitland 1.65 0.16 28.01 Dec-06 DoIR


maitland geology is more difficult than corvus.

as regards which one would likely to be developed first - basis reindeer goes ahead then am inclined to think corvus will be [along with other standed gas assetsin vicinity]

M

[boysy]

a few big bundles at the very start of trading so far 700k volume on just 4 trades. all are listed as international same buyer perhaps ?

[Nitaa]

a few big bundles at the ver start of trading so far 700 volume of just 4 trades. all are listed as international as well same buyer perhaps.I beleive that will from Fridays trading

[the machine]

I beleive that will from Fridays trading

will these also appear under asx volume for friday?

hopefully not, otherwise very misleading re volumes

M

[boysy]

off stockness



Trade No. Time Price Volume Value Conditions
1 5 10:24:35 am 41 10,000 $4,100 Block Special Crossing
2 4 9:38:49 am 40.2 156,901 $63,074 International
3 3 9:19:46 am 40.1 80,000 $32,080 International
4 2 9:19:14 am 4 290,378 $116,151 International
5 1 9:05:11 am 39.4 200,000 $78,800 International

[boysy]

as people have stated here before many tiny trades going through today between about 200-2000 shares a trade. looks as though this buying was confined to the asx though.

[the machine]

as people have stated here before many tiny trades going through today between about 200-2000 shares a trade. looks as though this buying was confined to the asx though.


clearly if nzo has been buying more it is still below the additional 1% trigger.
these small trades might be another player trying to build a stake at a reasonable price up to 33c au and looking to make a good profit on further nzo activity.

ppp price is holding up well without nzo activity so what will it do when they go on another buying spree.

m

[boysy]

if and when is the question though. bring on the tui drilling campaign i say

[the machine]

if and when is the question though. bring on the tui drilling campaign i say


nzo maybe stalling tui until they build stake to 19.95%

M

[the machine]

thanks AA.

ppp compared to almost everything on asx charts chart menu over not only last 3 months, but 1 year - even 10 years is huge - driven by nzo activity since mid dec

M

[the machine]

pretty ordinary day for ppp today - 1.3m shares traded over the 2 exchanges and price drifted a bit.

am so glad nil debt and earning a profit with every oil shipment [plus interest on cash]

what is next news?

feb contracts finish tonight in usa and march was already higher
[reporting only seems to focus on next month so POO should lift

nzo post weekly tapis average price every wednesday - ho hum!
but at least tapis now has a margin over wti

tui drill for 2009 2nd half - surely awe/ppp/mitsui would be pushing this
[nzo may be the spoiler hoping delayed decision holds ppp sp down]

quarterly reports ppp / awe / nzo

nzo declareing their hand
M

[boysy]

only 4 trades so far on the nzx but already 600k volume . its starting to look as though 40 cents is the barrier on the nzx just like nzo did the buying before they would buy up large if the price was right. I expect some sort of ssh notice to come out soon if some individual is behing the small and large trades.

[the machine]

only 4 trades so far on the nzx but already 600k volume . its starting to look as though 40 cents is the barrier on the nzx just like nzo did the buying before they would buy up large if the price was right. I expect some sort of ssh notice to come out soon if some individual is behing the small and large trades.

over 29m shares have to be aquired before any notice required - think volumes are way below that.

M

[digger]

over 29m shares have to be aquired before any notice required - think volumes are way below that.

M


Machine where are you getting these figures of 29 million from? I understand that at each 1% change a report has to be followed therefore that should kick in at approx each 5.8 million.Are you saying no notice has to be given until the full 19.9% is reached,as that is what your 29 million seems to be saying?

[shasta]

Machine where are you getting these figures of 29 million from? I understand that at each 1% change a report has to be followed therefore that should kick in at approx each 5.8 million.Are you saying no notice has to be given until the full 19.9% is reached,as that is what your 29 million seems to be saying?

29m would be the criteria for an intial 5% SSH notice i assume?

Each +/- 1% after that requires another SSH notice

[the machine]

29m would be the criteria for an intial 5% SSH notice i assume?

Each +/- 1% after that requires another SSH notice


yes, if its another player

as well 6m shares traded since last thursday then clearly nzo have not been buying volume

M

[the machine]

Machine where are you getting these figures of 29 million from? I understand that at each 1% change a report has to be followed therefore that should kick in at approx each 5.8 million.Are you saying no notice has to be given until the full 19.9% is reached,as that is what your 29 million seems to be saying?

for a new player it would be 29m shares - nzo its 5.8m

to me it looks like nzo may not have been buying and if this is correct then the large number of small trades others have mentioned indicates another player is building a stake


m

ps, that was my 1,000th post

[Sehnsucht888]

Or NZO are simply taking theit time ensuring the price doesn't leap too much more..

[KentBrockman]

http://www.energycurrent.com/index.php?id=2&storyid=15383

Not too much new information, but looks like the signing up of the rig is imminent.

[boysy]

good link kent lets just hope the stars are aligning the ppp/ nzo quarterly due out next week and hopefully an update about the plans for drilling around tui.

[digger]

for a new player it would be 29m shares - nzo its 5.8m

to me it looks like nzo may not have been buying and if this is correct then the large number of small trades others have mentioned indicates another player is building a stake


m

ps, that was my 1,000th post

Machine i now see where you are coming from. I thought you were just talking about NZO but if you were talking about a new holder then it does need about 29 million shares before we know who that is.
Digger.

[digger]

So on AUS exchange it appears that the mistery buyer is one Tony Randford.He had 4 .3 million before exchange release and now has 11.2 million.So roughly he has bought 6.8 million approx.
Now if you want to know wether that is negative or positive for future SP ask Duncan Mac. He claimes the downturn will sink all boats so that must be negative.
Digger

[boysy]

and people think the directors are going to be bought out on the cheap ?

[Sehnsucht888]

So on AUS exchange it appears that the mistery buyer is one Tony Randford.He had 4 .3 million before exchange release and now has 11.2 million.So roughly he has bought 6.8 million approx.
Now if you want to know wether that is negative or positive for future SP ask Duncan Mac. He claimes the downturn will sink all boats so that must be negative.
Digger

I don't think so. If you look at the ASX version - its easier to read - it looks more like 6.8 million shares he owned through other means, and not directly, were not shares he could vote with. They now are.

-----
(a) Director of Mehasu Pty Ltd holding 2,527,589 shares atf WTMS Super Fund
(b) 4,306,330 shares owned by Mrs Deirdre Radford


------
No. Aquired: 0
No. Disposed: 0
Nature of change
(a) Director may now participate in decisions as to voting of shares (previously excluded)
(b) Agreement granting first right to purchase shares held
------



If things are moving to adjust his voting rights, could mean action sooner than later. Or he's just tidying stuff up.

[digger]

I don't think so. If you look at the ASX version - its easier to read - it looks more like 6.8 million shares he owned through other means, and not directly, were not shares he could vote with. They now are.

-----
(a) Director of Mehasu Pty Ltd holding 2,527,589 shares atf WTMS Super Fund
(b) 4,306,330 shares owned by Mrs Deirdre Radford



------
No. Aquired: 0
No. Disposed: 0
Nature of change
(a) Director may now participate in decisions as to voting of shares (previously excluded)
(b) Agreement granting first right to purchase shares held
------



If things are moving to adjust his voting rights, could mean action sooner than later. Or he's just tidying stuff up.

Looks like you are right S888. None bought and none sold so must be just consolidading into one voting block.Strange as it first fooled me without reading it properly because about 6.8 million new owner shares need to be accounted for.

[tricha]

http://www.energycurrent.com/index.php?id=2&storyid=15383

Not too much new information, but looks like the signing up of the rig is imminent.

No new news or does it give David Salisbury justification to take PPP, with the permission of Tony Radford and his cohorts from PPP.:) of couse.
Tui partners to postpone development well

Filed from Houston 1/21/2009 5:00:46 PM GMT



http://www.energycurrent.com/public/pictures/kantaniv.jpg WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND: The Tui oil field partners will concentrate on drilling further exploration prospects near the main Tui pool offshore New Zealand this year and postpone the planned extra development well in the area, New Zealand Crown Minerals reports.

New Zealand Oil & Gas (NZOG) Chief Executive David Salisbury also said that confirmation of a 2009 drilling campaign within the offshore Tui mining permit in Taranaki is expected shortly with the use of Maersk Drilling-managed semisubmersible Kan Tan IV.

Salisbury said there are five prospects near Tui which together are currently estimated to contain 50 million barrels, a similar amount to the 50.1 million barrels, the field's present proven and probable reserve estimate, which can remain at this level without the extra development well.

NZOG said no decision has yet been made by the Tui partners on which of the prospects will be targeted in the 2009 campaign. Operator AWE is understood to be in final negotiations to secure the drilling rig.

NZOG, AWE, Mitsui and Pan Pacific Petroleum have just completed a seismic survey using the seismic vessel Pacific Titan of PEP 38483 in the offshore Taranaki Basin, where the unsuccessful Hector well was drilled.

[shasta]

for a new player it would be 29m shares - nzo its 5.8m

to me it looks like nzo may not have been buying and if this is correct then the large number of small trades others have mentioned indicates another player is building a stake


m

ps, that was my 1,000th post

Congrads on the 1,000 posts old son :D

Where would the NZO & PPP threads be without ya.

[the machine]

I don't think so. If you look at the ASX version - its easier to read - it looks more like 6.8 million shares he owned through other means, and not directly, were not shares he could vote with. They now are.

-----
(a) Director of Mehasu Pty Ltd holding 2,527,589 shares atf WTMS Super Fund
(b) 4,306,330 shares owned by Mrs Deirdre Radford


------
No. Aquired: 0
No. Disposed: 0
Nature of change
(a) Director may now participate in decisions as to voting of shares (previously excluded)
(b) Agreement granting first right to purchase shares held
------



If things are moving to adjust his voting rights, could mean action sooner than later. Or he's just tidying stuff up.


hows this for a theory:

the fund and mrs TR have been buying shares very recently and yesterday TR paid $400 to obtain the rights to aquire them [he does not own them as per asx announcement point b]

it implies nzo board have not yet met to decide next move and TR is just getting ahead of the game [unexpected? no]

now that TR has his cards all nicely stacked up then the way is clear for nzo board meeting, nicely before end of month so the quarterly report can be prepared, with hopefully a decision on tui drilling.

AWE and PPP to do likewise at board meetings early next week [without right to buy shares]

at nzo board meeting there are no prizes for guessing what TR will want to do.

M

[the machine]

Congrads on the 1,000 posts old son :D

Where would the NZO & PPP threads be without ya.


thanks

my own thread would not exist without me - KASBAH tin & gold - they are my tip for the 2009 competition run by yogi - 1 share only.

M

[Sehnsucht888]

hows this for a theory:

the fund and mrs TR have been buying shares very recently and yesterday TR paid $400 to obtain the rights to aquire them [he does not own them as per asx announcement point b]

it implies nzo board have not yet met to decide next move and TR is just getting ahead of the game [unexpected? no]

now that TR has his cards all nicely stacked up then the way is clear for nzo board meeting, nicely before end of month so the quarterly report can be prepared, with hopefully a decision on tui drilling.

AWE and PPP to do likewise at board meetings early next week [without right to buy shares]

at nzo board meeting there are no prizes for guessing what TR will want to do.

M

Interesting idea, but I would have thought that that would not be cosher from an exchange perspective.. The wording "Nature of change
(a) Director may now participate in decisions as to voting of shares (previously excluded)" makes me think these have been around for a while, and its more a change to be able to use their power should a take over occur, where as previously they were not allowed to vote, although I don't understand where that would come from...

[the machine]

Interesting idea, but I would have thought that that would not be cosher from an exchange perspective.. The wording "Nature of change
(a) Director may now participate in decisions as to voting of shares (previously excluded)" makes me think these have been around for a while, and its more a change to be able to use their power should a take over occur, where as previously they were not allowed to vote, although I don't understand where that would come from...


you are correct in that mrs TR has held shares for a while - per annual report she is in top 20 with 4,098,130.

has been buying some since publication though.


M

[Nitaa]

Interesting idea, but I would have thought that that would not be cosher from an exchange perspective.. The wording "Nature of change
(a) Director may now participate in decisions as to voting of shares (previously excluded)" makes me think these have been around for a while, and its more a change to be able to use their power should a take over occur, where as previously they were not allowed to vote, although I don't understand where that would come from...
TR's strength is protecting companies from takeovers when undervalued. I cant help but think TR and AT have been lining this up for some time.. Of course this is nothing more than speculation

[the machine]

ppp finished off strongly on asx - up 1.5c @ 34c.
more the remarkable because before long weekend and against asx dropping 3% overall.

see POO up overnight [tapis?] and DOW staged a recovery, almost finishing square.

OPEC talking up cuts and the contango is loosing momentum - all good indicators of POO staging further gains next week - just in time for quarterly reports and the long awaited decision re final discussions tui next drilling that has been a longtime coming.

NZO should have a board meeting next week ahead of their quarterly on 30th, so further moves re PPP should be decided.

M

[boysy]

ppp up today already on the nzx slow and steady though we expect a fair amount of news / quarterlies out from the jv partners this week it could be an intersting few days.

[boysy]

Dear Shareholder

I am writing to you to make sure that you are fully informed regarding the acquisition by
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (NZOG) in December 2008 of an interest of approximately 15%
in the share capital of your Company at prices of up to A$0.30 per share, on the share
markets in New Zealand and Australia.

You should also be aware that on 15 January 2009, NZOG announced receipt of Foreign
Investment Review Board approval to acquire 19.99% of Pan Pacific Petroleum NL (Pan
Pacific) and (subject
to the provisions of the Corporations Law governing takeover offers) up to 100% of your
Company.

NZOG stated at that time that, in due course, it would assess its position to determine
what, if any, further steps might be taken.
These moves by NZOG may lead to a takeover bid for Pan Pacific. Shareholders can be
assured that if a bid is made, Directors will take all available steps on your behalf to
ensure that a change
in control of the Company only occurs if, and when, all Pan Pacific shareholders receive
fair value for their shares.
In the event of a bid being made by NZOG or any other party, your board strongly advises
Pan Pacific shareholders to take no action until receipt of further advice from your
Directors; all communications from the bidder and its advisers should be treated in a
similar fashion.

Shareholders will be continuously supplied by the Company with up to date information
during the course of any bid.

In the event of a bid, shareholders will have access to a full and completely independent
assessment of the value of Pan Pacific’s assets and of the merits of the offer which
constitutes the bid. However, at this stage and particularly since Pan Pacific’s shares
have risen above the prices paid by NZOG
during its initial acquisitions, I would suggest that shareholders carefully consider the
following items of importance before accepting on market offers for their shares:

- Your Board does not believe that the current stockmarket price of a Pan Pacific share
reflects its underlying asset value. If a bid is made, Directors will commission an
independent expert to assess the value of the Company’s shares and whether the bid is
fair and reasonable.

- Preliminary arrangements have been made regarding the appointment of these advisers so
that this important expert advice will be available to shareholders as early as possible;
The Company remains broadly on track to achieve a profit of about A$50 million for the
year

- to 30 June 2009, given the higher prices earlier in the year, and assuming an average
oil price of US$50 per barrel (bbl) and an exchange rate of A$1:US$0.65 for the remainder
of the financial year;

- There is no doubt that Pan Pacific has an exceptional and valuable asset in its 10%
interest in the Tui Area Oil Fields (Tui), reflecting not only the forward value of its
oil reserves of around 3 MMbbls, but also the upside potential of the exploration
prospects in the area, some of which are planned
to be drill tested in calendar year 2009. Any new discoveries will benefit from
production through the existing Tui Area facilities;

Pan Pacific currently has no debt and substantial cash reserves. At 31 December 2008, the
Company’s cash reserves (after conversion to A$s) were approximately $150 million. This
excludes
US$7 million deposited as collateral to support Tui lease arrangements;

- Cash at bank alone presently represents around A$0.26 cents per share;

- Cash reserves will grow to around A$165 million by 30 June 2009, assuming an average
oil price of US$50/bbl and A$1:US$0.65, unless Pan Pacific makes a significant
acquisition in the balance of this financial year;

- Although profits from Tui production will fall in future years, shareholders should not
lose sight of their potential. Assuming future oil prices at current or higher levels,
cash flow will nevertheless be substantial and will form the basis of Pan Pacific’s
continuing activities in the oil and gas sector; it is its current cash and future cash
flow which makes your Company attractive to others;

- The Company also has upside potential in its other exploration interests in the
Taranaki Basin, New Zealand, and also the Carnarvon Basin, Australia.

- Your Board is actively considering several attractive potential acquisition
opportunities in the oil and gas business as part of its growth strategy. Pan Pacific’s
strong cash position is a substantial competitive advantage given current global credit
constraints;

- Pan Pacific has appointed Origin Securities Pty Limited to assist with an assessment of
the Company’s assets and in the formulation of a strategy to maximise value for
shareholders.
Additionally, Allens Arthur Robinson has been appointed as legal adviser. These steps are
being taken to ensure that your Company is fully prepared if a bid or any other proposal
for its issued
capital eventuates from whatever source.

Shareholders can be assured that your Directors will continue to keep them fully
informed.

This letter is written without the knowledge or consent of your Director, Mr R A Radford,
who in accordance with protocols set up with Mr Radford’s consent after NZOG announced
its initial share
acquisitions, is excluded from publications of this nature to ensure that no issues of
conflict of interest occur. Mr Radford is also Chairman of NZOG.

Neil Tomkinson
Chairman
Reserves estimates are based on information provided by the operator,
Australian Worldwide Exploration Limited.
For further information, please contact:
Tom Prudence Frank Mattiussi
Chief Executive Officer Managing Director
Pan Pacific Petroleum Origin Securities
+61 2 9957 2177 +61 2 9241 7600
Pan Pacific Petroleum NL ACN 000 749 799 Level 2, 123 Walker Street, North Sydney 2060,
Australia
Telephone: +61 2 9957 2177 Facsimile: +61 2 9925 0564 Website:
www.panpacpetroleum.com.au

[p2r]

So those of us who sold recently, any buying back in or still waiting for the weakness (not!)

[upside_umop]

It seems so...but it does all depends whether NZO make the bid everyone is waiting for.

Over 55% of acquistions turn out to actually lose money to company taking over another..

Anything over 50cents NZD and I'd say this is getting pretty risky for NZOG - that is unless they know something about Tui we dont.

On the other hand, if PPP take something over, they could end up losing the shareholders some money....and if it didnt fit NZOG growth strategy, you might see them reconsider quick smart.

I sold out at 30 au and 35 nzd...which looked good for about 2 weeks, but now not so good, and when I had 60% of my portfolio in it..even worse! maybe theres still time for a quick ride to 50 cents....

[boysy]

the fact is ppp are making more money day by day each day nzo waits on the side lines the cash backing per share increases. Also each day longer we get closer to deciding a jv drilling campaign around tui. I believe both companies realise tui and its potential . 50 cents might very well not be enough to get control of ppp though time will tell how much nzo will pay if they pay.

[KentBrockman]

the fact is ppp are making more money day by day each day nzo waits on the side lines the cash backing per share increases. Also each day longer we get closer to deciding a jv drilling campaign around tui....

And, as the SP rises, each day more shares are moving into hands that will be less likely to sell below A50c

[Nitaa]

I have been in the same camp (so to speak) as Digger. As Digger mentioned the ones that sold out in the 30's might live to regret it.

The announcement is very pertenant and seems its now just a matter of time. It is worth rading about a third ofd the way down in the latest announcement. The more you read it the more likely it seems on how all this is going to play out.

It seems clear that nzo intend to make an offer for a takeover of ppp (subject to the sp of course). I am almopst certain that it will need to be north of $NZ0.50 perhaps require around 60 cps if a takeover attempt is to happen in the next 2 months. Current shareholders seem to have very little risk and around 40 to 50% upside. I am basing on current cash in bank, future revenue from current tui and the exploration close to tui that will take place this year.

Key factors clearly are the big stakeholders in PPP. The math appears simple enough and now its a case of wait and see imo.

Paitience will be rewarded

dyor of course

[Phaedrus]

So those of us who sold recently, any buying back in or still waiting for the weakness?
Anyone selling recently did so in the face of a confirmed on-going uptrend and in the absence of any technical sell signals. This is just as silly as buying into an established on-going downtrend, in the absence of any technical buy signals - a common mistake that I was drawing attention to way back on page 11 of this thread.

The 6 indicators featured on the chart are all still strongly positive and it is easy to see that none are anywhere near triggering sell signals.

For those that do not have access to ATR based stops, a simple 10% trailing stop gives a close equivalent in this instance.

The green diamonds mark TA based entry points after the downtrend had ended as discussed in post #717, page 48.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/PPP128.gif

[stevo1]

I have been in the same camp (so to speak) as Digger. As Digger mentioned the ones that sold out in the 30's might live to regret it.

The announcement is very pertenant and seems its now just a matter of time. It is worth rading about a third ofd the way down in the latest announcement. The more you read it the more likely it seems on how all this is going to play out.

It seems clear that nzo intend to make an offer for a takeover of ppp (subject to the sp of course). I am almopst certain that it will need to be north of $NZ0.50 perhaps require around 60 cps if a takeover attempt is to happen in the next 2 months. Current shareholders seem to have very little risk and around 40 to 50% upside. I am basing on current cash in bank, future revenue from current tui and the exploration close to tui that will take place this year.

Key factors clearly are the big stakeholders in PPP. The math appears simple enough and now its a case of wait and see imo.

Paitience will be rewarded

dyor of course

Hi Nita I certainly hope so.
Looking at Phaedrus,s chart looks like I entered late at 28.5 but good to see he sees no sell signal ATM.I entered on the fundamentals of cash in the bank ,Tui prospects and takeover target,would be nice to see someone build a blocking stake which could extract maximum value from NZO.

[boysy]

i think all ppp holders want nzo to pay as much as possible and nzo holders want ppp as cheaply as possible the fact of the matter is people who are buying ppp now at 34 cents want a good premieum ontop of that so i think its going to have to be $0.45 + and more than than if its a script offer only.

[Stranger_Danger]

I haven't sold a single share since the NZO action started and have averaged up a couple times.

More upside here I reckon.

[Paddie]

The sell side for PPP is very very thin.

It will be interesting to see how the next few days pan out.

Paddie

[stevo1]

The sell side for PPP is very very thin.

It will be interesting to see how the next few days pan out.

Paddie

Someone must have heard you Paddie .They have offered up 50% of the days volume with 2 sellers after the market has closed.Is this a ploy to flush out sellers under 35 cps?

[the machine]

kan tan iv is confirmed coming to aust/nz for AWE/others

PetroleumNews.net + Kan Tan IV rig on way to Australia, New Zealand 28 Jan 2009 ... AUSTRALIAN Drilling Associates has confirmed it is bringing the Kan Tan IV semi- submersible rig to Australia and New Zealand for a ...
www.petroleumnews.net/storyview.asp?storyid=560996 - 8 hours ago - Similar pages

M

[boysy]

AUSTRALIAN Drilling Associates has confirmed it is bringing the Kan Tan IV semi-submersible rig to Australia and New Zealand for a multi-operator, multi-permit program this year.



“ADA has contracted the rig for five operators on both sides of the Tasman – AWE, Origin, Tap, Nexus and Anzon, which is now owned by Roc Oil,” company operations manager Phil Stratford told PetroleumNews.netfrom Melbourne.

Stratford said the rig, owned by Sinopec subsidiary China National Star Petroleum Corporation (CNSPC) but managed by Maersk Drilling, was expected to leave its present location in early March after finishing drilling the Endeavour well off Trinidad for operator Canadian Superior Energy and partners BG International and Challenger Energy.

The Kan Tan IV was originally expected to be in Australian waters this month, though Stratford said he now expected the rig to be in Australian waters by mid-April and to start drilling in Bass Strait by late May.

He said the rig would then be mobilised to New Zealand in August or September but was scheduled to return to Bass Strait in late 2009.

Although Stratford did not detail the rig’s proposed New Zealand programs, AWE has already said it plans to utilise the semi-submersible to drill up to six exploration wells in and around the Tui Area oil field, off Taranaki.

Prospects include Tui Southwest, Tui Southeast, Tui Northeast, Kahu Crest and Kahu Stratigraphic.

As well, Origin Energy has said it and Austrian partner OMV plan to use the Kan Tan IV to drill their first two wildcat wells – to test the petroleum potential of the Korimako and Tarapunga prospects in the newly enlarged licence PEP 38619 – in the offshore Northland Basin, probably early in 2010.

The company also told PNN it may also use the Kan Tan IV to drill one or possibly two wildcats in the offshore Canterbury licences PEP 38262 and 264 that it presently holds 100% equity in.

Stratford said the rig was booked until August 2010, though it was almost certain the work program could be extended beyond that.

“We have 519 firm days on the rig and options to extend,” he said.

The Tui partners are operator Australian Worldwide Exploration (42.5%), Mitsui E&P NZ (35%), NZOG (12.5%) and Pan Pacific Petroleum (10%).

[KentBrockman]

AUSTRALIAN Drilling Associates has confirmed it is bringing the Kan Tan IV semi-submersible rig to Australia and New Zealand for a multi-operator, multi-permit program this year.

.....


He said the rig would then be mobilised to New Zealand in August or September but was scheduled to return to Bass Strait in late 2009.

Although Stratford did not detail the rig’s proposed New Zealand programs, AWE has already said it plans to utilise the semi-submersible to drill up to six exploration wells in and around the Tui Area oil field, off Taranaki.

Prospects include Tui Southwest, Tui Southeast, Tui Northeast, Kahu Crest and Kahu Stratigraphic.

...



Excellent news, Boysy; that will bump us up another few cents. The pre-drill hype will do the rest.

We'll get to A$.50 with or without NZO ;)

[boysy]

i think thats right kent A$0.50 here we come with nzo or not. i think mr market is coming to realise the true worth of ppp . onwards and upwards from here i believe.

[stevo1]

Someone must have heard you Paddie .They have offered up 50% of the days volume with 2 sellers after the market has closed.Is this a ploy to flush out sellers under 35 cps?

The "2 sellers" at 35 (669000 shares )pulled HIS order pre market open.Almost certainly a flush out attempt for below 35 sellers.Interesting games being played would indicate (as others more knowledgable than me have stated)price action/takeover should be sooner rather than later.As witnessed by 587000 volume this morning and sp 35.5

[boysy]

things are starting to line up certainly there must be mention of nzos stake in ppp in the nzo quarterly due out tomoro then awe and ppps out on the 31st.

[tricha]

WELL, it's ASX listed right and I only hold OZ listed companies, bought in today, too much cash coming in at US $130 + for this quarter, Maitland ready to strike ? = 50 cents, otherwise I guess we will just boggie on the back of Tui.

And there is the added bonus of a takeover on this bargin basement price.
.................................................. ..................................................

Flogged of Sharescene ;)
PPP - Revised Valuation

Sunday June 22, 2008 by X (http://wacq.wordpress.com/author/waterstone/)

Updated for financial position as at 31st December 2007




http://wacq.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/ppp-220608.pdf (http://wacq.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/ppp-220608.pdf)

TAPIS price assumptions revised upward
0.90 flat USD/AUD cross-rate used
Interest revenue and expense schedules added
Discount rate adjusted to 10% due to de-risking
8.00% cost of debt and 6.50% rate for cash used
Zero value attributed to Maitland and other projects
Cash retention (i.e. 0% dividend payout) policy assumed
Valuation: $0.358

P.S Bermuda likes it, thats a bonus:)

WELL folks PPP getting close to my basic valuation, PPP cash and P2 = $0.41

Do you really think NZO are going to pay more than 41 cents.
Personally if I was at the helm of NZO I would want a bargain, especially in this market from HELL.
Refer COE's takeover failure for IPM recently, they failed in one sense, but still picked up 25% relatively cheap in the other sense.
Yes COE pulled the pin.

So we could see this happen again in this case.:rolleyes:

You bet, but NZO still win, they bought cheap shares and now have a blocking stake in PPP.

PPP will go down to 30 cents and stay there till cash catches up or stage 2 TUI comes good.

Place your bet folks.

Disclosure - down to my last 140 K of them.

P.S U never know, NZO will have a precise valuation and it might get to 50 cents.;)

[KentBrockman]

Personally if I was at the helm of NZO I would want a bargain, especially in this market from HELL


That's why I am saying Tricha: why don't you go and get your bargain somewhere else?

In the end, all valuations are meaningless. The only thing that counts is if a willing buyer can be matched with a willing seller.

So here's my bet: A successful t/o (e.g. acceptance 90%+) will need at least 55cents Australian.

There, I said it.

[shasta]

That's why I am saying Tricha: why don't you go and get your bargain somewhere else?

In the end, all valuations are meaningless. The only thing that counts is if a willing buyer can be matched with a willing seller.

So here's my bet: A successful t/o (e.g. acceptance 90%+) will need at least 55cents Australian.

There, I said it.

Whilst i think you are being a tad unrealistic & greedy, i hope you get a decent price when the knight in shining armour arrives.

As i said on the NZO thread, if PPP holders are outraged by the disconnection between the SP & there own valuations, instead of "hoping" NZO will cough up, i'd be on the phone to PPP & asking them to use the cash to buy back there own shares.

Let's see if the PPP management will "fairly" value there own shares...:confused:

[KentBrockman]

Whilst i think you are being a tad unrealistic & greedy, i hope you get a decent price when the knight in shining armour arrives.

As i said on the NZO thread, if PPP holders are outraged by the disconnection between the SP & there own valuations, instead of "hoping" NZO will cough up, i'd be on the phone to PPP & asking them to use the cash to buy back there own shares.

Let's see if the PPP management will "fairly" value there own shares...:confused:

Keep in mind that NZO got 15% of PPP already for a real bargain price, so that even a final takeover price of A$.55 will all up still mean that NZO got PPP for less than 50c.

Also, a more moderate offer initially of, say, 50c, will bring them another percentage of shares that will bring their average down.

[tricha]

That's why I am saying Tricha: why don't you go and get your bargain somewhere else?

In the end, all valuations are meaningless. The only thing that counts is if a willing buyer can be matched with a willing seller.

So here's my bet: A successful t/o (e.g. acceptance 90%+) will need at least 55cents Australian.

There, I said it.

R Thats my aim Kent, PPP has got me back and with the PPP I have sold, I am hunting for my next bargain without to much risk.

Thats why I think NZO will pull the pin, 55 cents is to much. ;)

[shasta]

Keep in mind that NZO got 15% of PPP already for a real bargain price, so that even a final takeover price of A$.55 will all up still mean that NZO got PPP for less than 50c.

Also, a more moderate offer initially of, say, 50c, will bring them another percentage of shares that will bring their average down.

Well PPP holders have already had a decent SP boost by the NZO activity.

I suspect NZO will go to 19.99%, but then a proactive PPP management team should seek to buyback there own shares, this will achieve something that has been overlooked on here.

1. A buyback will push up the share price, so a T/O suitor will have to act quick or facing pay up.

2. Any predator wanting access to PPP's cash will need to move BEFORE the buyback takes place, as PPP effectively returns a portion of its cash to its shareholders (& in a tax efficient manner on both sides of the tasman)

3. NZO would have to sell into the buyback, or else it could trigger a T/O, assuming NZO does move to 19.99%.

4. If PPP's board/management think there shares are undervalued they should be doing all they can to enhance shareholder value for ALL holders.

5. It also will present a chance for some to lock in some profits "at the right price"

6. PPP has a few shares already, so lowering the amount on issue tightens the register & increases the eps figure.

[upside_umop]

Yep, shouldnt have sold out all of my shares when I did!

Should have taken the strategy of smaller loads...thanks for the chart P, I may not have acted if I had seen it sooner!

50 cents NZ is good value for NZO...55 cents AUS? Thats getting quite high but i wouldnt put it out of the question....80 cents Ozzie like machine was saying? Forget it!

Oh well...I'll slave away at my summer job, while I think about the profits I didnt get to have! Still...50% on PPP last year I was happy, could have been 100% :(

[the machine]

things are starting to line up certainly there must be mention of nzos stake in ppp in the nzo quarterly due out tomoro then awe and ppps out on the 31st.

all reports out on 30th, being last business day of the quarter.

M

[the machine]

Yep, shouldnt have sold out all of my shares when I did!

Should have taken the strategy of smaller loads...thanks for the chart P, I may not have acted if I had seen it sooner!

50 cents NZ is good value for NZO...55 cents AUS? Thats getting quite high but i wouldnt put it out of the question....80 cents Ozzie like machine was saying? Forget it!

Oh well...I'll slave away at my summer job, while I think about the profits I didnt get to have! Still...50% on PPP last year I was happy, could have been 100% :(



expect tomorrow will see the tui 2009 drilling plans which will be a big positive to the sp - its not like a normal wildcat drilling program as they have incorporated the production drilling data into to 3D data base and have come up with 5 highgrade prospects.

this could add 10% to ppp sp alone = 39c au.

as regards any t/o play and given ppp have a heap of cash that nzo will be very keen to get their hands on sooner rather than later - a knockout t/o will be required otherwise nzo left with under 50% and going nowhere re investment for over a year.

in nz you just can't increasing the bid - maybe 2 bites, but with time restrictions of no new bid for a year or 2.
whereas think in aust you can have more bites and less restrictive time contraints

nzo need 91% to get the cash and this demands a premium over normal t/o plays, with script being an extra incentive.

basically double the ppp sp 1 hour after quarterly released [with 2009 tui drilling].

nzo are very aware they will not get ppp cheap - the first 15% was a bonus -the remainder will be more than top dollar.

M

[the machine]

R Thats my aim Kent, PPP has got me back and with the PPP I have sold, I am hunting for my next bargain without to much risk.

Thats why I think NZO will pull the pin, 55 cents is to much. ;)


tricha you tried downramping before - after you sold out at about 28c au [so could buy back in lower] and it did not work.

tui drill plans tomorrow will squash any downramping.

the sp only goes up from now and good luck to nzo if they succeed at 55c au - at that price mine will be part of the compulsary aquisition after 91%.

as regards a bargain share to bnuy - consider nzo after they make their bid - nzo sp could drop by 10% as a kneejerk reaction.

M

[tricha]

tricha you tried downramping before - after you sold out at about 28c au [so could buy back in lower] and it did not work.

tui drill plans tomorrow will squash any downramping.

the sp only goes up from now and good luck to nzo if they succeed at 55c au - at that price mine will be part of the compulsary aquisition after 91%.

as regards a bargain share to bnuy - consider nzo after they make their bid - nzo sp could drop by 10% as a kneejerk reaction.

M

Stating the facts bud, PPP is close to fair value in this market and NZO are not stupid.

If u care to go over the Mincor thread, did the same there, called the top and got the hell out and stayed out.

Toss that coin, this could go either way. ;)

[KentBrockman]

Even if NZO didn't move (which I'd almost prefer, rather than a perpetual stalemate due to a opportunistic t/o offer), I cannot see too much downside for PPP.

According to Tomkinson, PPP's cash position by June09 will be A$165mil, plus the 7mil bond for the FPSO, which basically means a cash backing of A$.30/share. Add in the rest of (old) Tui and other assets gives us a value north of 40cents already (even with low POO and uncertainty about Corvus and Maitland.)

Pre-drill hype will EASILY drive the SP above 50c, at which point those who wanted that figure all along can get out.

Admittedly, if all wells around Tui turn out to be dusters the SP will probably go back down below 40 cents. Any find however will drive SP beyond 60c.

So, in summary, NZO: Don't waste my time with an opportunistic offer, I ain't sellin'!

SHOW ME THE MONEY ! (or go away!)

[digger]

tricha you tried downramping before - after you sold out at about 28c au [so could buy back in lower] and it did not work.

tui drill plans tomorrow will squash any downramping.

the sp only goes up from now and good luck to nzo if they succeed at 55c au - at that price mine will be part of the compulsary aquisition after 91%.

as regards a bargain share to bnuy - consider nzo after they make their bid - nzo sp could drop by 10% as a kneejerk reaction.

M
Machine ,i have also considered waiting until the compulsary acquisition 91% kicks in. If i am correct it sounds good but it could have problems. At that point it has to be indepently valued and that value has to stick. That again if i am correct is where one can stick their neck out too much. If in this world depression the compartive value comes out much worse than the offer you are stuck with it. Up to now this has not happened to my knowledge but up to now we have always been in boom.So the question is what would the value be in gloom.
What i will do is read and consider the offer if it comes and weigh it to 5%. Then a decision will be made on the 95% weight on what the directors do.If they all report a stock exchange sell then i will sell---simple as that.

[KentBrockman]

Excerpt from quarterly: "The Company has agreed a growth strategy focusing on new venture oil opportunities in the South East Asia, and Australia-New Zealand region..."

Can't remember having read the words 'South East Asia' before, so may this be a sign that something is actually being considered?

[boysy]

NZOG ‘inundated with opportunities’

Neil Ritchie, New Zealand
Friday, 30 January 2009

THE flood of investment opportunities opening up for New Zealand Oil & Gas is consuming a lot of the listed mid-cap company’s time and energy in sifting the good from the bad.



The Tui Area oil project

NZOG chief executive David Salisbury said at the release of the company’s December quarterly results this morning that the Wellington-headquartered firm was “literally being inundated with opportunities”.

The global financial crises and low oil prices were combining to open up more opportunities for NZOG than ever before, with some exploration and production (E&P) companies now under enormous pressure to raise funds or reduce debt.

However, for well-placed companies such as NZOG, “it is a time of opportunity to create greater wealth for shareholders and we are looking to use our strong position to secure attractive new ventures”.

“NZOG is in a strong position to take advantage of investment opportunities. Price expectations are lowering and industry consolidation is starting to happen and is likely to gather pace.

“New possibilities are continually being identified. These are thoroughly and systematically assessed, and those which meet our criteria are being actively pursued.”

NZOG is debt free, having repaid its debt facility associated with the $NZ1.2 billion ($A944 million) offshore Taranaki Kupe gas-condensate project in mid-October, and has a war chest of almost $212 million, with just over two thirds of these funds held in United States dollar denomination accounts with NZ-domiciled banks.

“We are getting a new opportunity a day, people approaching NZOG with a proposal, and we are spending some serious effort eliminating the poor quality, and some are very poor quality, from the good.”

Having said that, Salisbury added that NZOG was currently “actively reviewing and pursuing at least six higher graded opportunities”.

NZOG’s operating revenue for the December quarter was $30.9 million, with a total of $19.7 million invested in capital projects, mostly the Kupe development.

Last month NZOG spent $30.7 million acquiring just under 15% of Tui partner Pan Pacific Petroleum and has Australian Foreign Investment Review Board approval to launch a total takeover bid for Pan Pacific, though Salisbury today declined to say if his company would do so.

Salisbury also said the offshore Taranaki Tui Area field continued to perform well and be profitable, even at low oil prices.

A barrel of oil sold at $US42 (about $NZ80), which was roughly the price received in mid-December, yielded a net profit – after depreciation, marketing and production costs, taxes and royalties – of about $NZ24.

NZOG’s Tui revenue for the six months was $103.2 million, about $72 million of which was earned during the September quarter and only about $31 million in the last quarter, when oil prices declined further.

As expected, field production is gradually reducing, though all four wells continue to produce strongly.

Total Tui production for the December quarter was 2.4 million barrels, at an average rate of over 26,000 barrels per day, compared with the 3.1MMbbl produced during the September quarter.

The more northern Kupe project is now over 90% complete, with commissioning due to start during the second quarter of 2009 and commercial gas flows during the third quarter.

“Kupe will begin providing a significant new revenue stream in the second half of 2009,” added Salisbury, though he said he did not know what proportion of total company cashflow that would be.

The Tui partners are operator Australian Worldwide Exploration (42.5%), Mitsui E&P NZ (35%), NZOG (12.5%) and Pan Pacific Petroleum (10%).

The Kupe partners are operator Origin Energy (50%), Genesis Energy (31%), New Zealand Oil & Gas (15%), and Mitsui E&P NZ (4%).

[the machine]

ppp down early but recovered to be up half a cent @ 35.5 au - pretty good result for the day when consider tui drilling not yet finalised and nzo not declaring their hand.

finishing up before a weekend is even more so better.


as to why tui drilling not finalised, guess since rig only confirmed on wed coming to aust/nz then not enough time.

So as to not cloud quarterly reporting then maybe final decisions delayed until next week.

since some of tui structures are side by side, then might be able to be tested from same hole, just sidetrack it after 2nd casing point and drill other target.

nzo could quietly be buying some more ppp up to the additional 1% threshhold before they have to declare - then pounce

M

[boysy]

lets hope so looks as though nzo could snap up a further few for under $0.40 as sellers are starting to outweigh buyers. Could be an interesting time ahead .

[soletrader]

[QUOTE=boysy;241820]NZOG ‘inundated with opportunities’

Neil Ritchie, New Zealand
Friday, 30 January 2009

The Tui Area oil project

...........NZOG chief executive David Salisbury said at the release of the company’s December quarterly results this morning that the Wellington-headquartered firm was “literally being inundated with opportunities”.

...........some exploration and production (E&P) companies now under enormous pressure to raise funds or reduce debt.

However, for well-placed companies such as NZOG, “it is a time of opportunity to create greater wealth for shareholders and we are looking to use our strong position to secure attractive new ventures”.

“NZOG is in a strong position to take advantage of investment opportunities. Price expectations are lowering and industry consolidation is starting to happen and is likely to gather pace..............

__________________________________________________ ___________________________

This is exactly the sort of publicity which I would expect NZO to be seeking, together with an announcement of the new permit application near Kupe. And no doubt there will be more of the same.

NZO will be looking to pump there share price prior to any moves.

If you were to follow the English Premier League (we are in a transfer window) you would see that the clubs have a possible buy list, and as players become available or are sold, so the target changes, and NZO are clearly indicating that the same applies in the smaller oil company market. If one favourable opportunity presents itself ahead of another then that will be the done deal. After all it's just business.

PPP holders (of which I am one, and have more than I should) may hope for an early move for their company, but NZO may feel that they have done enough to leave it on the back burner for now, unless another party shows an interest and they have to reassess. The imminent arrival of a rig is immaterial as there will be no drilling action till the third quarter, and a delayed announcement of any Tui drills is also to NZO's advantage in the the PPP scenario, but the oppersite is true in the targeting of other opportunities. So take your choice.

Kent Brockman suggests that these two companies may not get into bed, and I agree. There are alternatives for both of them.

[macduffy]

Kent Brockman suggests that these two companies may not get into bed, and I agree. There are alternatives for both of them. QUOTE.

Certainly there are alternatives but from NZO's point of view, I can't see them spending all that cash on a stake in PPP if they didn't have intentions of taking full control, sooner or later. I can't see them being happy to treat it just as a long term investment.

;)

[boysy]

nzo have shown their hand in all but naming it what is a stategic stake ? what is its purpose ? why take 15 % ? Why ask for the approval for takeover ? the ball is in nzo court to offer a takeover. The question is not if but when

[sideline]

.............
Certainly there are alternatives but from NZO's point of view, I can't see them spending all that cash on a stake in PPP if they didn't have intentions of taking full control, sooner or later. I can't see them being happy to treat it just as a long term investment.

;)
Why not, they used to have that cross-holding before they sold it because they needed the cash
to complete TUI.
So far they have only 'spent' about what those shares cash backing was worth, so NET they
have 'spent' bugger all. Just shifted their cash from some-bank to PPP-bank and gained a blocking
stake on the way.

[KentBrockman]

Kent Brockman suggests that these two companies may not get into bed, and I agree. There are alternatives for both of them. QUOTE.

Certainly there are alternatives but from NZO's point of view, I can't see them spending all that cash on a stake in PPP if they didn't have intentions of taking full control, sooner or later. I can't see them being happy to treat it just as a long term investment.

;)

The more I think about it, the more I come to the conclusion that NZO's potential (opportunistic) bid is not in the interest of PPP.

Tomkinson, Tattersfiled (and presumably many others including myself) haven't been sitting on PPP for years in order to give it all away for peanuts in a (arguably) temporary crisis.

There is plenty of opportunity for PPP to make an investment in something with potential, and reap the rewards when things start picking up.

I am still puzzled by the mention of 'South East Asian opportunities' in the quarterly....While that couldn't be possibly Carnarvon (too big), I wish it would be. Totally undervalued, and will go up like a rocket once the dust settles.

[stevo1]

[QUOTE=boysy;241820]NZOG ‘inundated with opportunities’

Neil Ritchie, New Zealand
Friday, 30 January 2009

The Tui Area oil project

...........NZOG chief executive David Salisbury said at the release of the company’s December quarterly results this morning that the Wellington-headquartered firm was “literally being inundated with opportunities”.

...........some exploration and production (E&P) companies now under enormous pressure to raise funds or reduce debt.

However, for well-placed companies such as NZOG, “it is a time of opportunity to create greater wealth for shareholders and we are looking to use our strong position to secure attractive new ventures”.

“NZOG is in a strong position to take advantage of investment opportunities. Price expectations are lowering and industry consolidation is starting to happen and is likely to gather pace..............

__________________________________________________ ___________________________

This is exactly the sort of publicity which I would expect NZO to be seeking, together with an announcement of the new permit application near Kupe. And no doubt there will be more of the same.

NZO will be looking to pump there share price prior to any moves.

If you were to follow the English Premier League (we are in a transfer window) you would see that the clubs have a possible buy list, and as players become available or are sold, so the target changes, and NZO are clearly indicating that the same applies in the smaller oil company market. If one favourable opportunity presents itself ahead of another then that will be the done deal. After all it's just business.

PPP holders (of which I am one, and have more than I should) may hope for an early move for their company, but NZO may feel that they have done enough to leave it on the back burner for now, unless another party shows an interest and they have to reassess. The imminent arrival of a rig is immaterial as there will be no drilling action till the third quarter, and a delayed announcement of any Tui drills is also to NZO's advantage in the the PPP scenario, but the oppersite is true in the targeting of other opportunities. So take your choice.

Kent Brockman suggests that these two companies may not get into bed, and I agree. There are alternatives for both of them.

On the other hand what a great bit of gamesmanship on NZO's part now they have full takeover approval.
Throw doubt into the mix pump your own SP while "talking down" your potential target ('inundated with opportunities').
NZO sharing common directors with PPP gives them insight unavailable to others.After all no one approched NZO trying to flog PPP to them,nothing stopping them quietly accumulating over time unless another player enters.

While it does give NZO a blocking stake it has also taken cash that could be used on the so called "other oppotunities" (could be seen as somewhat of an own goal without a full takeover no control of cash in PPP?)
11% of the PPP wuold acheive the same result anyway so why take 15%?

Certainly general market conditions and POO is working in NZOs favour ATM.But if they muck around for too long they may well find PPP tracking off in its own direction when there is weak US$ then POO jumping.

[macduffy]

Just shifted their cash from some-bank to PPP-bank and gained a blocking
stake on the way.

QUOTE.

Except that they had control of their cash at "some-bank". It's now hostage to the control of the directors of PPP ( excepting TR ) who have already signalled that they won't roll over for NZO.

[boysy]

thats the thing nzo will only get control of ppp cash if they t/o ppp. Having 15 % stake in ppp entitles them to squat all .

[the machine]

Just shifted their cash from some-bank to PPP-bank and gained a blocking
stake on the way.

QUOTE.

Except that they had control of their cash at "some-bank". It's now hostage to the control of the directors of PPP ( excepting TR ) who have already signalled that they won't roll over for NZO.

cash has not gone to PPP - it went to ex ppp shareholders.

15% of ppp gives them nothing - as directors already had a blocking stake.

the move however has made ppp come clean on their plans, as otherwise sp would be about 25c au at best and we have no insight in what directors valuation of company is

where to no?

maybe with sellers now being flushed out then nzo might quietly buy another 0.99% of ppp without forcing price up, then if another 2-3% are on offer to sell at not much more, swoop and buy them, with 3rd move - the t/o to follow after gained 19.99%

am expecting the t/o will involve script as nzo will want to preserve cash.

ppp assets and prospects in taranaki would give nzo economies of scale, plus go some way towards increasing nzo stated aim of increasing reserves.

M

ps for the week ppp went from 34c au to finish at 35.5 c au a 5% gain.

[macduffy]

cash has not gone to PPP - it went to ex ppp shareholders.

QUOTE.

I think sideline was meaning that NZO had swapped their cash for shares in PPP which had given them an effective similar cash backing ( in PPP).
My point was that they had control of their cash before buying PPP shares but now that " cash" is controlled by PPP directors.
Ex PPP shareholders certainly received cash - but arguably not full value for their shares. At least, as a holder, that's IMO.

;)

[Nitaa]

It's now hostage to the control of the directors of PPP ( excepting TR ) who have already signalled that they won't roll over for NZO. Heres the deal. TR is saying that PPP wont roll over to NZO? Is that what was said? Then what he is saying is PPP is going to screw me as much as possible.

TR has his foot in both camps and somehjow i dont think he will lose out

discl. hold nzo & ppp

[macduffy]

TR is saying that PPP wont roll over to NZO?
QUOTE.

No, it's the PPP directors, excluding TR because of the conflict of interest, who have indicated that they won't roll over. OK, that's my interpretation but they ( the other PPP directors, who have big personal stakes ) have given strong indications in that regard.

You're right though in that TR will be a winner regardless.IMO it's just a matter of time before a formal bid is made.

Disc: Holding firm to PPP.

;)

[boysy]

From the article NZOG still in the black stuff





It was a "fantastic" achievement that reflected a very good performance in 2008, said chief executive David Salisbury.

In November NZOG also acquired a $30.7m, 15 percent stake in Australia's Pan Pacific Petroleum, which the company believed was a bargain.
Mr Salisbury said he would much rather have high oil prices but low prices meant new opportunities coming to its door.

Those growth opportunities meant NZOG was looking at six "live opportunities".

"We are being literally inundated with new opportunities. We are screening those carefully and looking to make prudent investments, but we will not be overpaying for any investment."

[tricha]

Even if NZO didn't move (which I'd almost prefer, rather than a perpetual stalemate due to a opportunistic t/o offer), I cannot see too much downside for PPP.

According to Tomkinson, PPP's cash position by June09 will be A$165mil, plus the 7mil bond for the FPSO, which basically means a cash backing of A$.30/share. Add in the rest of (old) Tui and other assets gives us a value north of 40cents already (even with low POO and uncertainty about Corvus and Maitland.)

Pre-drill hype will EASILY drive the SP above 50c, at which point those who wanted that figure all along can get out.

Admittedly, if all wells around Tui turn out to be dusters the SP will probably go back down below 40 cents. Any find however will drive SP beyond 60c.

So, in summary, NZO: Don't waste my time with an opportunistic offer, I ain't sellin'!

SHOW ME THE MONEY ! (or go away!)

A stalemate, in a nutshell thats what will happen, thats my bet. The directors of PPP do not need the money, lets face it, who in this bear market were spending hundreds of thousands on buying more shares.

Unless they decide to merge, with Tomkinson, Tattersfiled and Radford firmly at the helm and they will hold a takeover blocking stake.

A oil company with 22.5% Tui, 400 million cash in a war chest and more.

Watch out CVN, OEL, NXS, etc,etc.

Anyway I'm down to my last 100k of PPP shares, sold another 40k on Friday, averaged out and a hunting I go again.;)

Disclosure hold both PPP and NZO.

P.S playing it this way, I can not lose.

[tricha]

Hey Phaedrus

Looks like we have vastly different trading habits.

Trouble is you do not disclose, so on this site u can never be wrong, hmm.
But I have a hunch you had\have some PPP due to your interest in them ?

Never buy in a down trend, thats one rule we both disagree on. How about doing a PEM ( major disaster ), but exit plan saved my bacon) style graph on my PPP encounter, remember it was 60% of my portfilo at the bottom at 18.5 cents.

( Another rule I keep breaking, only hold 10% IN ONE COMPANY.)

And do a PEM on the Mincor thread, 80% of my portfilo.

And thanks to Serpie for lending me " Lessions from the Greatest Traders of all Time"

Admit your mistakes, we all make lots and have an exit plan, when you know you have made a mistake, get the hell out. If you get 3 out of 10 right you should going by the book, be doing OK ;)

Happy hunting folks :eek: Yeah its a minefield out there.

P.S If u get 5 out of 10 right u should be wealthy, I only get the 3.

[Phaedrus]

Hey Phaedrus. Looks like we have vastly different trading habits. Never buy in a down trend, thats one rule we both disagree on. How about doing a graph on my PPP encounter.
Sure. It is interesting and informative to compare two such different approaches.
You first bought PPP at point (1). This was just a short time after PPP had fired off a slew of SELL signals. Technically, not a good time to enter!
You bought again at point (2). By this time PPP was in an obvious downtrend, with a confirmed trendline in place (red line). Definitely NOT a good time to buy! Why not wait for the trendline to be broken or for the downtrend to end before buying?
At this point, you had bought the majority of your PPP stake, and there had not been a single technical Buy signal.
You bought again at point (3) which turned out to be a good entry but no technical analyst would have bought there because at that time there was no evidence that the downtrend was ending.

A raft of technical Buy signals then followed at prices ranging from 19.5 to 21.5, as marked on the chart. These gave an average entry price of around 20.7 cents - well below the 22.7 cent average of your 3 entries.

You started selling at point (4) No technical sell signals had been triggered.
You sold a few more at point (5) Again, no technical sell signals had been triggered.
At this point, you have sold the majority of your PPP stake for an average of 30 cents and there has not not yet been a single technical Sell signal.
From my perspective you are buying too soon and selling too soon because you totally disregard the underlying trend. Never buy in a downtrend and never sell in an uptrend. Ignore these rules and you are fighting the market. The trend is supposed to be your friend!

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/PPP21.gif


Admit your mistakes, we all make lots and have an exit plan, when you know you have made a mistake, get the hell out. I would agree - but what is your exit plan? I'm sure we both see your buy at point (1) as a mistake. When did this become obvious? When prices dropped below the preceding low, confirming the fact that PPP was in a downtrend. You should have "got the hell out" at that point.


If u get 5 out of 10 right u should be wealthy, I only get 3. Tricha, a 30% hit-rate (3 profitable trades out of 10) is actually quite low. The easiest way for you to improve this would be to stop buying downtrending stocks. So long as you continue to ignore market sentiment your hit-rate is bound to remain poor. Buying into downtrends will ensure a high proportion of bad entries and losing trades.

[Huang Chung]

Tricha, as you seem to be on the move again, would you please add (and updating as appropriate) your current holdings to your signature block?.....just helps see where you're at. (and I know you have no probs with disclosure).

Cheers mate.

[tricha]

Phaedrus - Tricha, a 30% hit-rate (3 profitable trades out of 10) is actually quite low. The easiest way for you to improve this would be to stop buying downtrending stocks. So long as you continue to ignore market sentiment your hit-rate is bound to remain poor. Buying into downtrends will ensure a high proportion of bad entries and losing trades.[/quote]

It is not a very good record is it, but hey the ASX has gone down 50%, including most BlueChip.
I guess I can consider myself lucky to latch onto PPP, which got hit on by NZO.
Note - the top 3 in the share competion, all had takeover hits .

Oilers - losses were based on a drill bit. DLS and GOG.

Trending does not pick up on gambling stocks. Just the same as trending does not pick up on takeovers and trending will not pick NZO pulling the pin if they do.

Gold stocks - CTO and BMO based on enhanced management reports, goldfever.

No1 buy point, I think u will find the whole market followed that trend.

As far as buying into a down trend, yep I chased it all the way down, based on fundamentals, it got cheaper every day.

PSA bought recently at 14 cents, sold 50k at 18 cents and the other 50K at 22 cents. Bought in a down trend.

And NZO, bought them recently in a down trend.

My last buy, last week and yes its in a down trend, but the fundamentals do not meet my critera of being a cash cow any more, so they might have to go or I might keep them as a gambling stock, unfortunately it relies on a dam drillbit.

27/01/2009 Buy 20000 BPT ASX $0.74


I am thinking I need to keep a diary of all my shares and write down why I made mistakes and had successes.

Anyway back to PPP, its down to a boardmeeting where we will not be at.
So, if they announce game on or game off, we will find out too late and the price after the trading halt will ............................
So imagine you are at the helm of NZO and thats real hard in this case, TR has got a foot in both camps. :eek:

Your trend will be too late. So you can be Greedy or Fearful or keep a bob each way.
And at the end of the day, PPP is a great company, WELL run and will keep earning cash and if we were not in this Bear market from Hell, it would be North of $1.00 by now.

Happy hunting folks and thanks for that Phaedrus, I need to sharpen up my act.

P.S Hold PPP, NZO, BPT, ODN and SAE. 50% cash and all this could change tomorrow.

[Nitaa]

I am picking that nzo will not buy any ppp shares for at least a month unless they go below about about 40 cps $NZ or about 32 cps $AU. With declining oil prices they can afford to be patient and on the same token they dont need to pay a higher price just yet. In saying that i am sure that if their intention is to make a takeover of ppp then they will wantr to do it asap and not leave it to drilling time of the tui permit.

The sp at present seems to be rallying on the belief that a takeover is imenent. Howver from nzo's perspective i am confident they will not buy more shares and make a formal offer at present.

[soletrader]

"NZO will be looking to pump there share price prior to any moves".

And their off! First day of the week and shareholders are e-mailed to tell them what is already known, and also to give a first viewing on a map (unless I have not been concentrating) to an application south of, and adjacent to PEP38483

[the machine]

"NZO will be looking to pump there share price prior to any moves".

And their off! First day of the week and shareholders are e-mailed to tell them what is already known, and also to give a first viewing on a map (unless I have not been concentrating) to an application south of, and adjacent to PEP38483


agree nzo need to increase their sp if bid for ppp involves script.

maps info has aleady been out.

with the 1c nz up this morning, that equates to almost 36c au = ppp may increase on openning on asx.

m

[the machine]

I am picking that nzo will not buy any ppp shares for at least a month unless they go below about about 40 cps $NZ or about 32 cps $AU. With declining oil prices they can afford to be patient and on the same token they dont need to pay a higher price just yet. In saying that i am sure that if their intention is to make a takeover of ppp then they will wantr to do it asap and not leave it to drilling time of the tui permit.

The sp at present seems to be rallying on the belief that a takeover is immenent. However from nzo's perspective i am confident they will not buy more shares and make a formal offer at present.


disagree nzo will hold off - they can't afford to risk someone else snapping up a 10% slice of ppp.

imo, build stake to 19.9% then make a t/o before half yearly report out.

sure ppp is up because of expectation of nzo t/o, but sp is now underpinned by ppp directors statement last week re sp is lower than their valuation of company.

POO is trending up as well

M

[bermuda]

disagree nzo will hold off - they can't afford to risk someone else snapping up a 10% slice of ppp.

imo, build stake to 19.9% then make a t/o before half yearly report out.

sure ppp is up because of expectation of nzo t/o, but sp is now underpinned by ppp directors statement last week re sp is lower than their valuation of company.

POO is trending up as well

M

I agree. You only have to read the shareholder letter and then put 2 and 2 together. It doesn't come any simpler eh?

[Nitaa]

I agree. You only have to read the shareholder letter and then put 2 and 2 together. It doesn't come any simpler eh?
Bermuda. I will be very surprised to see nzo build on their 15% stake at the current sp. Building a further stake at current or higher prices will only demand a much higer price for a takeover.

I am sure nzo are happy to play the waiting game or at least they should be.

[Sehnsucht888]

"NZO will be looking to pump there share price prior to any moves".

And their off! First day of the week and shareholders are e-mailed to tell them what is already known, and also to give a first viewing on a map (unless I have not been concentrating) to an application south of, and adjacent to PEP38483

Really? I didn't get an email. I got the Quarterly report from Chris R last week, but nothing yet this week...

[stevo1]

I agree. You only have to read the shareholder letter and then put 2 and 2 together. It doesn't come any simpler eh?

Something looks very contrived with trading in PPP.Parcels trading in 2000 approx lots every 3-5 minutes.
Looks like bot trading to shake SP lower to me perhaps on behalf of NZO?Maybe to get sellers lining up below 35 then pick them off.
Dont know if those small continuous trades can affect TA .
But from Phaedrus,s charts no sell signals triggered.
FA looks good.
Jump in POO or blocking stake could derail NZO,s plans if they wait too long.

[stevo1]

Yesterdays trading pattern makes slightly more sense when viewed in conjuction with Daily Reported Short Sales for 2 Feb. total shares sold 999607.reported short sales 114,339 or 11.43% of turnover for -2.81% daily change in SP http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt
Todays pattern quiet different 335000 shares sold but still acheived a 2.9% drop in price .Short reported sales not available till tomorrow.
Interesting tactics or purely coinsidence?
I dont know how deep the short sales are as these are daily figures only (I think).Does anyone know the total short positions?
meanwhile NZO SP is pumping up on (4.2mill) volume in NZ.
Interesting.

[stevo1]

It appears someone is doing a "grand job" on PPP.
I would be interested in seeing Phaedrus,s TA (as a reactive factor) and to see if technical sell is being triggered.
Meanwhile the opposite is happening on NZO(note the bot action buys).
Pure speculation on my part (based on looking at the action on and after market) but considering the value of the stakes involved it is feasible that NZO (or their representatives)could remain below the threshold of having to notify ASX of percentage movement and still drive down PPP's SP(by shorting and sell/buy within 1% range)
The sell orders between 33.5 and 35.5 also appear a little "odd" in so much as relatively large quantities in few hands (860000 share for sale by 7 (or less?) sellers ).
The end game here is to acquire PPP on terms favourable to NZO.

[KentBrockman]

It appears someone is doing a "grand job" on PPP.

It is tempting to be concerned about the present PPP situation, with PPP declining and NZO appreciating in SP.

But in the end, PPP's cash position will be 30c/share by June, plus (old) Tui, plus Tui potential plus other assets.

So there's no way that any valuation will be below 50c oz, and thus the directors (bar TR) won't roll over and sell out.

The key is, and it can't be repeated often enough, not to sell into an opportunistic low ball offer.

[Phaedrus]

I would be interested in seeing Phaedrus's TA (as a reactive factor) and to see if technical sell is being triggered.
None of the indicators posted here on 1/2/09 have triggered sell signals yet, Stevo.

[tricha]

It is tempting to be concerned about the present PPP situation, with PPP declining and NZO appreciating in SP.

But in the end, PPP's cash position will be 30c/share by June, plus (old) Tui, plus Tui potential plus other assets.

So there's no way that any valuation will be below 50c oz, and thus the directors (bar TR) won't roll over and sell out.

The key is, and it can't be repeated often enough, not to sell into an opportunistic low ball offer.

I would not bet on 30 cents, unless they dump the US$, if the US$ plumments they will lose millions,
And it could and it should, because they are printing money like no tomorrow.

OIl is still very low, refer NZO's costs per barrel and relate to PPP.

Decline is accelerating, down to 28,000 barrels a day and falling?

And oil could go lower on futher demand destruction.

Valuation might be 50 cents OZ, but NZO are not stupid and are "not" going to pay valuation in this market.

But hey merger still on the cards and directors of PPP are possible buying cheap NZO shares to roll the company, remember NZO has no key holders.

Anyone I sold my last 100K yesterday, but if it falls below 30 cents I might be tempted back, might.

[Thumpa]

oil's heading back up , got a bit of a fright filling up the car today....$1.69 I think it was. All good for PPP .

http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u150/soundzgoodgood/ppp.gif

[KentBrockman]

Valuation might be 50 cents OZ, but NZO are not stupid and are "not" going to pay valuation in this market.



Fair enough; I doubt though that NZO will acquire enough shares that way then.

I have no trouble waiting a little longer...according to yourself oil is headed for huge increases :)

[Sehnsucht888]

Valuation might be 50 cents OZ, but NZO are not stupid and are "not" going to pay valuation in this market.

Anyone I sold my last 100K yesterday, but if it falls below 30 cents I might be tempted back, might.


Fair enough; I doubt though that NZO will acquire enough shares that way then.

I have no trouble waiting a little longer...according to yourself oil is headed for huge increases :)

50c only covers cash, and future TUI at current rates. Plenty of upside when (assuming it does), the world recovers. NZO can try to be opportunistic, but PPP isn't struggling, and isn't going to be taken over by screwing PPP holders.

[boysy]

i think that is the thing people forget ppp dont need nzo . ppp are cashed up and are in a position to pick when and where to spend there money. 50 cents would be a "fair" offer now but if the price of oil goes up and or more oil is found in the tui area then 50 cents will be far too little end of story.

[KentBrockman]

50c only covers cash, and future TUI at current rates. Plenty of upside when (assuming it does), the world recovers. NZO can try to be opportunistic, but PPP isn't struggling, and isn't going to be taken over by screwing PPP holders.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

Just WHY do NZO (-holders) expect PPP holders to accept an opportunistic offer (assuming it's mostly script based)????

The major upside for NZO will come from Tui and surroundings. Coal surely looks in the doldrums for a while, and I don't see much upside coming from NZO's gas project.

Hence, PPP has much higher leverage than NZO in case of new discoveries or increasing POO.

[shasta]

Couldn't have said it better myself.

Just WHY do NZO (-holders) expect PPP holders to accept an opportunistic offer (assuming it's mostly script based)????

The major upside for NZO will come from Tui and surroundings. Coal surely looks in the doldrums for a while, and I don't see much upside coming from NZO's gas project.

Hence, PPP has much higher leverage than NZO in case of new discoveries or increasing POO.

You don't see much upside from the Kupe project?

Perhaps you need to re-read about the project, as it's a bigger project than Tui is!

Only problem with "valuing PPP at 50c" by saying it includes cash + future Tui production, is that future cashflows are DISCOUNTED to get back to a NPV figure.

The production rates will taper off over the life of the project, & quite quickly over the next year or so.

Which still leaves PPP with a profitable & cashflow positive project, but with dwindling reserves, & the label of being a 1 project company. (When valuing a single project company you would use a DCF analysis)

NZO has the Kupe Gas/light condensate/LPG project to offset the drop off in Tui revenue giving them approx 20 years of $100m+ revenues.

Yes, PPP has a stake in the Taranaki exploration program, but neither AWE or NZO require it to replace reserves, ie it's more cream on top, whereas PPP need further reserves to retain a "fair valuation".

Again i will say, instead of posting "pie in the sky" valuations without any substance, contact PPP to do a sharebuyback up to 50c.

If it's worth that i'm sure they will listen to there shareholders concerns & may well be happy to take 50c themselves?

If PPP holders think there pockets will be lined by NZO, think again.

If anyone has calculated a DCF on PPP for the life of it's project, i'd like to see it.

[Sehnsucht888]

Well, in the current climate I don't know how detailed you want to get in discounting future cash. That works for a farily stable item, but not for oil at present. a 20$ increase per barel adds another 10c per share - if consistantly returned. Then again this is based on a rate .65 USD.

I think the point here is that PPP holders won't be bargain hunted..
NZO would have to get a justifiable valuation that is seemed fair for a take over.

[shasta]

Well, in the current climate I don't know how detailed you want to get in discounting future cash. That works for a farily stable item, but not for oil at present. a 20$ increase per barel adds another 10c per share - if consistantly returned. Then again this is based on a rate .65 USD.

I think the point here is that PPP holders won't be bargain hunted..
NZO would have to get a justifiable valuation that is seemed fair for a take over.

I have no doubt if NZO wants PPP, then you will receive a "fair" premium, to gain full control over the future cashflows.

Meantime the market continues to value PPP's cash, assets & future revenues @ A33c

[Sehnsucht888]

Yep, but remember at one stage that was all valued at less than the cash the held which made little sense. Once NZO came sniffing, (or offered fair value), the price leapt. Should NZO make a take over offer, the price will again be under pressure, (as happens in most take over attempts). Till then PPP stagnates with no directtion like most of the market.

[boysy]

one also has to factor in the fact that their has to be somthing in it for ppp sh to sell there shares to nzo. Usually this is a t/o offer which is above "fair value" simply because the market values a share doesnt reflect it "fair value". as pointed out above ppp at one stage was valued at less than its cash backing proving how irrational the market can be at times. People may simply say all that has changed since then is nzo taking a strategic stake within ppp. I think others can more rightly point out that the reaction of ppp management show they are not as slack as many were pointing out. Im sitting on the sidelines waiting for a offer to come or not in times like these there cant be a much safer place than a company with such cash in the bank and cashflow positive.

[shasta]

Yep, but remember at one stage that was all valued at less than the cash the held which made little sense. Once NZO came sniffing, (or offered fair value), the price leapt. Should NZO make a take over offer, the price will again be under pressure, (as happens in most take over attempts). Till then PPP stagnates with no directtion like most of the market.

Have a look at the SRL thread, that company is "valued" at approx half it's value of it's listed investments, ignoring everything else!

There are plenty of companies currently at/below cash holdings or NTA.

It is a bear market

[upside_umop]

shasta....listed investments means f.a in this enviroment.

ppp have cash, i dont think you've ever really understood that?

you battled it out over on nzo saying nzo were a much better buy and even oel....ppp have had it going on for a while now.

[boysy]

you cant compare nta with cash backing . cash makes up a component of nta but cash in these environments is worth much more as it holds its value as against in the srl thread the nta include investments which in this sort of market doesnt translate to cash.
Name another company of ppp size which has such a large cash backing per share and is cashflow positive ? its rather useless comparing ppps cash position to other companies NTA well in these times anyway.

[shasta]

you cant compare nta with cash backing . cash makes up a component of nta but cash in these environments is worth much more as it holds its value as against in the srl thread the nta include investments which in this sort of market doesnt translate to cash.
Name another company of ppp size which has such a large cash backing per share and is cashflow positive ? its rather useless comparing ppps cash position to other companies NTA well in these times anyway.

UU - As an accountant i would contend i understand cash better than most on here, especially in company valuations!

As for OEL, i sold out at 48c & posted the fact there could be problems, nice try though.

Ok Boysy, NHC has a market cap ~$2.7b, & cash on hand ~$2.65b...

Looking to make NPAT of around $120m (excl interest on cash), also owns ~17% of AOE, among other projects.

NTA = Net Tangible Assets, what do you think cash is :confused:

My point being SRL has a market cap of say $250m & could sell its $500m investment in SAR (even at a discount) & have MORE cash than PPP.

To crystalise that asset & be worth 50c in the $1 is madness, but does/can happen in a bear market...

Underdog started a thread on companies trading below cash & investment holdings, theres a few in there too.

PPP is facing the same issue NZO had, what to do with all the cash...

You don't pay executives to earn pitiful interest rates do you?

Without NZO's recent purchase of 15%, PPP would still be trading sub 25c.

If you read the independent statements on other takeover targets, they always refer to the VWAP of the SP in the days before the predator started buying, & the SP on the date at which they made the takeover bid unconditional.

Take A30c as your base price & add a "fair" premium to it, say 30 - 50% (and 50% would be outstanding in a bear market & with low oil prices), this would give you a range of A39 - A45c.

Those who bought PPP at say 25c (ie, before NZO started buying) would still realize a 56 - 80% profit at 39-45c, assuming that valuation range.

I look back at the greedy RPM holders "expecting" $$$ for there holdings, who got swallowed at a fair price (& at a great profit for most), but well short of what posters "expected".

Still awaiting a DCF valuation on PPP :confused:

[digger]

Shasta,you have good solid arguement on what is on the records but my gut tells me what is not on the records but is likely to be is what NZO is after PPP for. Before i explain further lets go all the way back to 1964 when from nothing two year earlier i then needed an accountant.My accountant would remain with me for the next 40 years until he retired.In 1964 he was much better off than me and he invested like an accountant and from the records.I invested on gut feeling of how i saw thing turning out and always supported by events seeming to in the long run go more my way than his.We had many arguements along the way but to this day still friends.Sure i took a bath in the 1987 sharemarket crash,that he didn't but i was in the early 80 the first over the million dollar line,for which he congradulated me and was well aware why as as i said he was my accountant.
Why i think NZO will take out PPP is with my money on it---
1/ cash flow in future factoring in the latest seismic info around TUI and the likely further cash flow from the existing TUI field.
2/ The very short talk i had with TR before the last AGM shows me he is well aware of the importance of known unknowns.With TUI we may not know everything but we certainly have a very good handly where we are.Overseas acquisitions in far off countries scare the hell out of me as i have just too often seen companies go under or take a bigger knock than i took in 1987.
3/ The four big PPP holders probably want a takeover /merger that allows them to keep there already existing stake in TUI,and would also add stability from a wider field of oil investment than an investment soly in PPP would give.
Anyways to cut it all short my guess is a 2 for 5 as a minium.Maybe a small cash as well.What will actually pan out is not yet on the accountant's books.
Digger 's 2 cents worth.

[shasta]

Shasta,you have good solid arguement on what is on the records but my gut tells me what is not on the records but is likely to be is what NZO is after PPP for. Before i explain further lets go all the way back to 1964 when from nothing two year earlier i then needed an accountant.My accountant would remain with me for the next 40 years until he retired.In 1964 he was much better off than me and he invested like an accountant and from the records.I invested on gut feeling of how i saw thing turning out and always supported by events seeming to in the long run go more my way than his.We had many arguements along the way but to this day still friends.Sure i took a bath in the 1987 sharemarket crash,that he didn't but i was in the early 80 the first over the million dollar line,for which he congradulated me and was well aware why as as i said he was my accountant.
Why i think NZO will take out PPP is with my money on it---
1/ cash flow in future factoring in the latest seismic info around TUI and the likely further cash flow from the existing TUI field.
2/ The very short talk i had with TR before the last AGM shows me he is well aware of the importance of known unknowns.With TUI we may not know everything but we certainly have a very good handly where we are.Overseas acquisitions in far off countries scare the hell out of me as i have just too often seen companies go under or take a bigger knock than i took in 1987.
3/ The four big PPP holders probably want a takeover /merger that allows them to keep there already existing stake in TUI,and would also add stability from a wider field of oil investment than an investment soly in PPP would give.
Anyways to cut it all short my guess is a 2 for 5 as a minium.Maybe a small cash as well.What will actually pan out is not yet on the accountant's books.
Digger 's 2 cents worth.

I'm in my 30's & have a higher tolerence for risk, having previously held both NZO & PPP, if anything PPP is too passive for me!

I know NZO well & thats why i prefer them as my O&G play.

Agree on your 2nd point, just look what overseas investments did to BPT!

NZO & PPP, along with AWE have a good understanding of the taranaki basin & i'm happy they are sticking to what they know.

Like the old "gold" addage, "go back to where you found it before".

[the machine]

its a big no to any buyback.

just look at tap oil with all the millions they sqandered with buyback and their shareprice is lower than what it was 7-8 years back


buybacks erode cash

m

[soletrader]

[QUOTE=shasta;242671]UU -

"You don't pay executives to earn pitiful interest rates do you?"

My nomination for quote of the year 2009, if there were such a competition.
__________________________________________________ __________________________

However shasta, you say re PPP/Tui "and the label of becoming a one project company". I can't speak for KB, but I think that is why some of us think they may well kick out, and the NZO scenario is not done yet. If the board still contained just traders and make weights they may only have the option of taking a 'fair' price. But this is not the case; we now have some serious oil men on board, and if they see better opportunities elsewhere they will probably take them. So don't expect a cheap deal, just as likely a 'no deal'.

Digger, you may not remember that a while back we established that you are even more ancient than I am. I also experienced the same in 87, and circa 93 (or was that just a UK problem), and the dot com, and now. The difference is that you appear to have learnt over the years. I hope that your take on forthcoming events is the right one, as come what may I need to cash in 25% sooner rather than later (UK tax year), but as I said previously, am not counting the chickens.

[upside_umop]

UU - As an accountant i would contend i understand cash better than most on here, especially in company valuations!

As for OEL, i sold out at 48c & posted the fact there could be problems, nice try though.

Ok Boysy, NHC has a market cap ~$2.7b, & cash on hand ~$2.65b...

Looking to make NPAT of around $120m (excl interest on cash), also owns ~17% of AOE, among other projects.

NTA = Net Tangible Assets, what do you think cash is :confused:

My point being SRL has a market cap of say $250m & could sell its $500m investment in SAR (even at a discount) & have MORE cash than PPP.

To crystalise that asset & be worth 50c in the $1 is madness, but does/can happen in a bear market...

Underdog started a thread on companies trading below cash & investment holdings, theres a few in there too.

PPP is facing the same issue NZO had, what to do with all the cash...

You don't pay executives to earn pitiful interest rates do you?

Without NZO's recent purchase of 15%, PPP would still be trading sub 25c.

If you read the independent statements on other takeover targets, they always refer to the VWAP of the SP in the days before the predator started buying, & the SP on the date at which they made the takeover bid unconditional.

Take A30c as your base price & add a "fair" premium to it, say 30 - 50% (and 50% would be outstanding in a bear market & with low oil prices), this would give you a range of A39 - A45c.

Those who bought PPP at say 25c (ie, before NZO started buying) would still realize a 56 - 80% profit at 39-45c, assuming that valuation range.

I look back at the greedy RPM holders "expecting" $$$ for there holdings, who got swallowed at a fair price (& at a great profit for most), but well short of what posters "expected".

Still awaiting a DCF valuation on PPP :confused:

Shasta, dont use the fact that your a CA to make out you know more than the rest of us. Its been said before by some others, your picks havent been the best. You sold out of NZO wayyy to early, you ramped up OEL until as late as last month, you were ramping ADY while you were selling out and as for URA then yeah....that tops it off. Nice try? Oh, and whats all this 'I know PPP and NZO very well?' Dont we all?! Again you didnt know them well enough to invest/divest at appropriate times.

I dont see how being a 'CA' makes someone qualified to give a valuation. I've worked in a CA environment and do not see them constantly looking up the stock market, doing valuations on a DCF basis. Sure, it gives you a good insight to business, but you cant be taught everything. So yeah, stop with the CA stuff for now eh? Stocks is not what they're about....they're mainly about debits and credits mate. Unless you've worked for a substantial amount of time in corporate finance valuations with the PWC then I would take a different view, but considering your a little young to have worked your way up there I'm not counting on it. You need to be in the game 10ish years to even get a foot in the door there....

SAR cannot just go to the market and sell their investment at market prices - there has to be a buyer! A buyer may pick up the stake at a substantial discount...ie 30-40%.

Cash is a NTA, yes, but listed investments are much, much different type of NTA. Come on, I thought you would see the difference? Cash is bargaining power and again in this environment is trumps. A listed investment is bugger all if you want to go and aquire all the shares of another company! You think you can see NZO asking PPP shareholders to swap NZO's PRC for PPP shares? No, it just doesnt work. Admit it that cash is best - at this time.

PPP facing an issue of what to do with cash? Just sit on it until an opportunity they cannot turn down arises. PPP have a growth strategy, and drillable permits. Look at Tui area expansion....if they succeed in another 50mbbls then PPP will be amazing. Tieke is now considered a tie-in target, but hasnt openly been stated what the estimated size is. The tui area is a 'company maker' for PPP. They dont need to do anything with their cash just yet....and if you read back, I've commented asking why PPP didnt do any share buyback around 20 cents AUD. It should have been done, but instead AT decided to buy another 8 million shares himself. I emailed the company multiple times....I had 60% on this stock.

I'm not sure of a takeover price, sometimes they seem irrational, and a high amount of takeovers actually end up losing the company money who is doing the acquiring. So, NZO if you're reading this....take note.

Want a DCF valuation on PPP? Why not take an analysts valuation on NZO's share of Tui, divide it by 5, multiply by 4 = PPP share. Add cash and there you have it.

On another note, PPP had a bit of a drop last few days in NZ. Im suspecting this is from their quarterly. It showed a few tax/royalty liabilities didnt it? That means NET cash down to ~$135million? Not quite as attractive now...

[shasta]

Shasta, dont use the fact that your a CA to make out you know more than the rest of us. Its been said before by some others, your picks havent been the best. You sold out of NZO wayyy to early, you ramped up OEL until as late as last month, you were ramping ADY while you were selling out and as for URA then yeah....that tops it off. Nice try? Oh, and whats all this 'I know PPP and NZO very well?' Dont we all?! Again you didnt know them well enough to invest/divest at appropriate times.

I dont see how being a 'CA' makes someone qualified to give a valuation. I've worked in a CA environment and do not see them constantly looking up the stock market, doing valuations on a DCF basis. Sure, it gives you a good insight to business, but you cant be taught everything. So yeah, stop with the CA stuff for now eh? Stocks is not what they're about....they're mainly about debits and credits mate. Unless you've worked for a substantial amount of time in corporate finance valuations with the PWC then I would take a different view, but considering your a little young to have worked your way up there I'm not counting on it. You need to be in the game 10ish years to even get a foot in the door there....

SAR cannot just go to the market and sell their investment at market prices - there has to be a buyer! A buyer may pick up the stake at a substantial discount...ie 30-40%.

Cash is a NTA, yes, but listed investments are much, much different type of NTA. Come on, I thought you would see the difference? Cash is bargaining power and again in this environment is trumps. A listed investment is bugger all if you want to go and aquire all the shares of another company! You think you can see NZO asking PPP shareholders to swap NZO's PRC for PPP shares? No, it just doesnt work. Admit it that cash is best - at this time.

PPP facing an issue of what to do with cash? Just sit on it until an opportunity they cannot turn down arises. PPP have a growth strategy, and drillable permits. Look at Tui area expansion....if they succeed in another 50mbbls then PPP will be amazing. Tieke is now considered a tie-in target, but hasnt openly been stated what the estimated size is. The tui area is a 'company maker' for PPP. They dont need to do anything with their cash just yet....and if you read back, I've commented asking why PPP didnt do any share buyback around 20 cents AUD. It should have been done, but instead AT decided to buy another 8 million shares himself. I emailed the company multiple times....I had 60% on this stock.

I'm not sure of a takeover price, sometimes they seem irrational, and a high amount of takeovers actually end up losing the company money who is doing the acquiring. So, NZO if you're reading this....take note.

Want a DCF valuation on PPP? Why not take an analysts valuation on NZO's share of Tui, divide it by 5, multiply by 4 = PPP share. Add cash and there you have it.

On another note, PPP had a bit of a drop last few days in NZ. Im suspecting this is from their quarterly. It showed a few tax/royalty liabilities didnt it? That means NET cash down to ~$135million? Not quite as attractive now...

Wow your touchy, especially for someone who doesn't know me!

You were the one that pointed out that i didn't understand cash!

As for cherry picking my past trades/investments, fair enough i don't always get it right, at least i admit it my mistakes & you do hear of my losses as i do disclose when i buy/sell.

Some on here only want to post after the fact, & ramp whatever stock they are holding, thats NOT my style.

I sold NZO & PPP, to lessen my O&G exposure at the time & had better targets elsewhere, perhaps i should have held on to them, ah well :rolleyes:

As for ramping OEL, i have clearly spelt out the potential problems in advance, & haven't held OEL for a while now (& disclosed my exit as such).

If you reread that thread, you'll see the "ramping" tag is a tad unfair.

BTW, Tricha was the poster that mentioned with "my background" i'd know about valuations not me, being an accountant has limited relevance to the sharemarkets but does help on the fundamental side, so i agree with you there. :)

For the record i was with PwC for over 8 years, however that was over 6 years ago (i've worked in various accounting roles incl PwC for around 15 years now), & i've also been investing/trading for over 10 years, the last 5 years more actively.

Lets agree to disagree & move on aye?

I have no motive, nor agenda against PPP, just questioning some of the "hefty" valuations with seemingly little substance behind them.

[the machine]

even though ppp has beenpushed down it still finished unchanged at 34c today, so seems there is good support around this level.

therefore the indicated structured downramping of stock with the numerous trades at 2,000 has found the bottom of the market [which is further supported by directors advising their off the cuff valuation is higher]

so nzo knowe should know bottom of market and where to now is the multi million dollar question.

M

[the machine]

for a while we were thinking it would be good for ppp to take a stake in nzo as an investment.

but now that nzo have a 15% stake in ppp and expected to mount a t/o involving script, then no point now in investing in nzo. [nzo price likely to drop with dilution]

instead preserve the full value of ppp asset by avoiding investing in something that is likely to NOT lose value.

and nzo pay full value for ppp

M

[tricha]

even though ppp has beenpushed down it still finished unchanged at 34c today, so seems there is good support around this level.

therefore the indicated structured downramping of stock with the numerous trades at 2,000 has found the bottom of the market [which is further supported by directors advising their off the cuff valuation is higher]

so nzo knowe should know bottom of market and where to now is the multi million dollar question.

M

Down ramping, get real man, NZO are after a bargain.

At 40 cents it ain't no bargain, take a very good look at COE, bailed on IPM, at a small profit I might add.

Do u honestly think NZO will pay full value in this market from Hell.

If u do, u must also think NZO are a bunch of mugs.

[Nitaa]

Down ramping, get real man, NZO are after a bargain.

At 40 cents it ain't no bargain, take a very good look at COE, bailed on IPM, at a small profit I might add.

Do u honestly think NZO will pay full value in this market from Hell.

If u do, u must also think NZO are a bunch of mugs.
You are onto it tricha. nzo are not going to go for ppp for the sake of it. i said it on this or nzo thread that i dont see them buying any more ppp unless its about 32 cps (AUS) or below.

[KentBrockman]

Do u honestly think NZO will pay full value in this market from Hell.


Tricha, you keep forgetting that PPP doesn't need NZO.

Also, PPP's leverage to TUI (also NZO's prime asset) is much larger than NZO's.

So why would any sane PPP holder agree to ANY script t/o by NZO (unless you want exposure to an over priced gas project or to a coal mine with uncertain coal prices for the near future)?

Not me.

NZO, show me the money, or GO AWAY!

[Nitaa]

Tricha, you keep forgetting that PPP doesn't need NZO.

Also, PPP's leverage to TUI (also NZO's prime asset) is much larger than NZO's.

So why would any sane PPP holder agree to ANY script t/o by NZO (unless you want exposure to an over priced gas project or to a coal mine with uncertain coal prices for the near future)?

Not me.

NZO, show me the money, or GO AWAY!Kent. nzo are probably going to do neither in the VERY short term. Yes they want ppp but as tricha points out, at not any old cost

[stevo1]

Down ramping, get real man, NZO are after a bargain.

At 40 cents it ain't no bargain, take a very good look at COE, bailed on IPM, at a small profit I might add.

Do u honestly think NZO will pay full value in this market from Hell.

If u do, u must also think NZO are a bunch of mugs.


Tricha and Nita -- NZO does want a bargain (hell who doesn't). there are also the PPP shareholders who want full value (obviously).
While I don't think NZO are a bunch of mugs(their opportunistic "insider" 15% swoop) demonstrates that.No one twisted NZO's arm to buy a stake and while they are "flooded with unsolicited offers"
They do start to look a little foolish if they are unable to access PPP's cash and have in fact sealed up their own cash (thru 15% stake) in PPP.The further they lift their stake the more cash is out of NZOs control.
So really they have created a situation where take over is not essential but certainly very important to them.
NZO may play a patient waiting game but could well get blind sided by PPP taking its own direction.
Here on S/T we appear to have split into 2 major camps.
The ex PPP owners (now NZO owners) and current PPP owners.

NZO and it's brokers(without another offer) IMO are attempting to shake more PPP shares loose at a capped price 35 cps?
So we can expect some more creative tactics and have already seen some.
While NZO has already got a bargain (15%) it has alerted the market place to the undervalued situation and to extract full value for NZO a takeover is necessary --the only problem is the price.
TA still looks ok(Phaedrus's chart)
FA still looks ok IMO
POO in the future if you look at the contago (difference between current and futures price)is pointing to price increase.
For NZO to T/O PPP they are going to have to make a GOOD offer or languish with cash tied under another companies control(albeit a company flush with cash) .

[Bixbite]

Tricha and Nita -- NZO does want a bargain (hell who doesn't). there are also the PPP shareholders who want full value (obviously).
While I don't think NZO are a bunch of mugs(their opportunistic "insider" 15% swoop) demonstrates that.No one twisted NZO's arm to buy a stake and while they are "flooded with unsolicited offers"
They do start to look a little foolish if they are unable to access PPP's cash and have in fact sealed up their own cash (thru 15% stake) in PPP.The further they lift their stake the more cash is out of NZOs control.
So really they have created a situation where take over is not essential but certainly very important to them.



NZO could distribute those 87.5 million PPP shares to its 389 million shares’ holders instead of paying dividends. (Cost NZ$30,688,000 = ~ 0.0789 per share)

Cheers

[macduffy]

NZO could distribute those 87.5 million PPP shares to its 389 million shares’ holders instead of paying dividends. (Cost NZ$30,688,000 = ~ 0.0789 per share)

Cheers

A sort of history repeating itself!

I don't think that's what they have in mind!

;)

[sideline]

A sort of history repeating itself!

I don't think that's what they have in mind!

;)

Maybe not, but what a brilliant idea!!!

[bermuda]

The more I look at this the more I am convinced that NZO takes out PPP in full. But hey, I have been wrong many times before. The ducks are all in a row.

[macduffy]

The more I look at this the more I am convinced that NZO takes out PPP in full. But hey, I have been wrong many times before. The ducks are all in a row.

I agree with that. It's just a matter of time and at what price the big PPP holders will capitulate.
Always the possibility that NZO could walk if the price gets too rich but I don't think it will come to that.

;)

[tricha]

I agree with that. It's just a matter of time and at what price the big PPP holders will capitulate.
Always the possibility that NZO could walk if the price gets too rich but I don't think it will come to that.

;)

WELL u only need to take a good look at COE, not only did they pull the pin on the IPM takeover, they have run for the hills, I think the shareholders were giving them a spanking :o

Toss that coin folks, this could go either way. ;)

[MPC]

I am an ex ppp Holder. Traded it three times last year for great profit. Interesting trying to guess the future and really I just hope all you PPP holders get the best deal out of this and us long suffering NZO holders end up with our deserved fortune and huge share price increase over the near future. PPP is looking great and so is NZO.

Cheers,
MPC

[KentBrockman]

I agree with that. It's just a matter of time and at what price the big PPP holders will capitulate.

;)

Digger mentioned earlier that he believes that the directors would want to retain exposure to Tui in the event of a t/o.

I don't necessarily think that this is the case. Tomkinson is an investor, usually in iron mining, and this foray into oil seems unusual for him.

May I remind everyone what Strachan wrote in Stockanalysis in 2006 after Tomkinson bought into PPP:

"Canny Perth-based mining identity Neil Tomkinson, long-time business partner of geologist extraordinaire Josh Pitt, has emerged with 33.5 million Pan Pacific Petroleum shares representing 7.7% of its listed securities and has been invited to join its board.

StockAnalysis believes Pitt is not far behind him in this investment. Clearly Tomkinson and Pitt agree with StockAnalysis, and have backed their judgement with their own "hard earned".

Shareholders of Pan Pac should be cheered by the arrival of Tomkinson on the board, since he has a strong reputation as a thrifty business manager and a record of making money for himself and the shareholders he represents. "

The above quote, along with the recent sound bites made by Tomkinson/PPP board indicate to me that a significant NZO offer is required to make them roll over.

Anyone who thinks PPP is going to be taken over for a song is clearly dreaming.

[the machine]

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00925515

at least 2 tui holes

M

[temptation]

What is going on?
No PPP shares traded on the NZX today.
Just 2 small trades early on the ASX.
No trading halt.
All quiet on Sharetrder.

[Nitaa]

What is going on?
No PPP shares traded on the NZX today.
Just 2 small trades early on the ASX.
No trading halt.
All quiet on Sharetrder.It was unusal. Also given the confirmation of drilling campaign by awe.

Its also the biggest split (not sure if thats the right term) between buy and sell orders on the nzx. buy @.41 and sell @ .44

I have mentioned before and will stick to my theory. nzo are not going to buy ppp for the sake of it. i suspect they will accumulate under $au0.32 or $nz0.40. even when or if they get to just under 20% of ppp i am sure nzo have in mind of a "fair purchase value" of being somewhere around the $au0.50 ot $nz0.60. The good news for ppp holders is the significant holdings of some of the directors. Therefore its safe to say ppp holders should get good value fore their shares if an offer comes.

Right now unless holders are forced to sell their shares it would seem crazy to do so. Paitence will be rewarded imo.

discl nzo & ppp ....also dyor

[KentBrockman]

The good news for ppp holders is the significant holdings of some of the directors. Therefore its safe to say ppp holders should get good value fore their shares if an offer comes.

Right now unless holders are forced to sell their shares it would seem crazy to do so. Paitence will be rewarded imo.

discl nzo & ppp ....also dyor

Also, I am sure PPP directors are watching carefully the current takeover battle for Pure. While the circumstances are somewhat different, in the Pure case directors hastily recommended to accept Arrows initial offer, only to be trumped by an even higher subsequent offer from BG.

Now Pure directors are in a tight spot of either incurring a significant break penalty for changing their recommendation, or indeed change their recommendation (which I reckon would be the ethical thing to do, as it would improve the outcome for holders).

Therefore, directors will think twice before endorsing any opportunistic bid (and Arrows bid wasn't even what could be termed an opportunistic bid)

[KentBrockman]

FYI:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4843770a13.html

[macduffy]

Hi Kent.

I don't know how the Pure directors' recommendation was termed but it is usual for these to be " in the absence of a superior offer".
Whether a break fee is payable is, of course, a separate matter.

[tricha]

None of the indicators posted here on 1/2/09 have triggered sell signals yet, Stevo.

WELL interesting stuff Phaedrus.

Do you realise your trend can not predict what is happening in the boardroom of NZO or PPP.

In this situation you have as I see it, three scenaro's.

1 - NZO pull the pin on the take over and run, like COE.

2 - NZO go ahead with it, but at what cost :confused: ( My valuation is 41 cents a share for the cash and the 3 million barrels owing.)

3 - There is a friendly merger, where the PPP directors gain a blocking interest and run Pacific Petroleum United. ( PPP and NZO combined )

1 or 2 are most likely, but with NZO going up recently, who's buying ?



And with demand destruction in full flight and this going south, hmm. Place your bets folks.;)

Crude Oil (javascript:NewWindow('/glossary/crude.html','AU','top=50,left=200,width=525,height =570,scrollbars=yes');)38.14+0.59

[bermuda]

WELL interesting stuff Phaedrus.

Do you realise your trend can not predict what is happening in the boardroom of NZO or PPP.

In this situation you have as I see it, three scenaro's.

1 - NZO pull the pin on the take over and run, like COE.

2 - NZO go ahead with it, but at what cost :confused: ( My valuation is 41 cents a share for the cash and the 3 million barrels owing.)

3 - There is a friendly merger, where the PPP directors gain a blocking interest and run Pacific Petroleum United. ( PPP and NZO combined )

1 or 2 are most likely, but with NZO going up recently, who's buying ?



And with demand destruction in full flight and this going south, hmm. Place your bets folks.;)

Crude Oil (javascript:NewWindow('/glossary/crude.html','AU','top=50,left=200,width=525,height =570,scrollbars=yes');)38.14+0.59

Tricha,
NZO take out PPP in full.

[tricha]

Tricha,
NZO take out PPP in full.

If I was sure of that Bermuda, I would be buying heaps.:)

[KentBrockman]

1 - NZO pull the pin on the take over and run, like COE.





Tricha, have you studied COE v IPM? That was a completely different scenario. (I guess the only similarity could be that both are failed takeover bids due to a low ball offer)

COE pulled the pin because a third party came in and outbid COE. Then COE was too cheap to counter offer, became scared that their money will be tied up forever, and then bailed with their tail between their legs. Now they look like complete buffoons.

Not exactly a case NZO should look up to.

[tricha]

Tricha, have you studied COE v IPM? That was a completely different scenario. (I guess the only similarity could be that both are failed takeover bids due to a low ball offer)

COE pulled the pin because a third party came in and outbid COE. Then COE was too cheap to counter offer, became scared that their money will be tied up forever, and then bailed with their tail between their legs. Now they look like complete buffoons.

Not exactly a case NZO should look up to.

WELL here is where we disagree Kent, COE made the right decision, took the money and ran.

They actually made money on the deal :)

NZO need to make 50% profit on the deal, otherwise forget it.:rolleyes:

U know what I mean Kent, NZO need a bargain or forget it. They have the cash.

AND yes PPP do not need NZO.

Stakemate .:eek:

[boysy]

nzo have already shown their hand as such. They have bought into ppp at prices they believed were bargain basement and as such muct of presented the best opportunity at the time for nzo cash . They have stopped buying after aquring their strategic stake . The question has to be asked why would nzo aquire a strategic stake so quickly if they didnt plan of making a takeover / merger in the near future. While nzo did pick up cheap ppp shares they could of got them alot cheaper if they took their time gaining a stake. the question is if the ppp shares were a bargain at what value do nzo consider them fair value in the current environment. nzo can only stall for so long and now we have additional drilling information around the drills in taranaki in the 3rd quarter i would expect for nzo to announce something sooner rather than later. If nzo is investing in another company it must imply they they expect a greater return to be made with that money outside of the company than simply reinvesting it. im expecting big things from ppp its leveraged much higher on tui success and failure so nzos move of buying into ppp must indicate they view tui as potentially containing much more oil. just my opinion of course i wonder what awe thinks about the present nzo ppp situation and weather it may have a crack at either of them prior to drilling.

[Corporate]

nzo have already shown their hand as such. They have bought into ppp at prices they believed were bargain basement and as such muct of presented the best opportunity at the time for nzo cash . They have stopped buying after aquring their strategic stake . The question has to be asked why would nzo aquire a strategic stake so quickly if they didnt plan of making a takeover / merger in the near future. While nzo did pick up cheap ppp shares they could of got them alot cheaper if they took their time gaining a stake. the question is if the ppp shares were a bargain at what value do nzo consider them fair value in the current environment. nzo can only stall for so long and now we have additional drilling information around the drills in taranaki in the 3rd quarter i would expect for nzo to announce something sooner rather than later. If nzo is investing in another company it must imply they they expect a greater return to be made with that money outside of the company than simply reinvesting it. im expecting big things from ppp its leveraged much higher on tui success and failure so nzos move of buying into ppp must indicate they view tui as potentially containing much more oil. just my opinion of course i wonder what awe thinks about the present nzo ppp situation and weather it may have a crack at either of them prior to drilling.


I agree with you! Interesting times.

Is anyone buying at these levels?

[Bilo]

PPP is the weakest link in the Tui consortium when it comes to raising serious development money. PPP has three major shareholders who are individuals any one of whom may want to monetise their interest in Tui rather than re-invest, either NZO or AWE or Mitsui needed to shore up the shareholder’s standing. NZO have done that and may move towards 20pc. That is the cheapest way of ensuring PPP sticks around to pay their share of exploration and future projects. NZO doesn’t have to take over PPP – just stop an outsider from buying in cheaply and draining cash out of the consortium at a time when it is difficult to borrow money. The Tui consortium has its eye on PPP’s cash being around to help develop Tui.
At the time when NZO share holders put up 1.50 plus option value they could have purchased 7 or 8 PPP shares. Any offer to PPP at more than this sort of ratio would prompt NZO shareholder’s to ask why NZO doesn’t buy their own shares instead. Certainly paying a dividend to NZO shareholders at least hits the right investors and goes a little way towards retaining their support.
I agree with Tricha that unless the drill bit hits big time again then PPP is a cash box that isn't worth much more than cash backing.

[macduffy]

I wouldn't put too much weight on any " PPP may not be able to pay its way " theory.
If the worst came to the worst, ie the accumulated cash plus ongoing income from Tui was not enough to pay for PPP's share, I've no doubt that AWE, NZO or someone else would be keen to buy-in and take a few percent of the field off PPP's hands.
Having said that, I agree that NZO won't be overpaying to takeover PPP but I'm pretty sure a bid will eventuate at some stage.

;)

[upside_umop]

nzo have already shown their hand as such. They have bought into ppp at prices they believed were bargain basement and as such muct of presented the best opportunity at the time for nzo cash . They have stopped buying after aquring their strategic stake . The question has to be asked why would nzo aquire a strategic stake so quickly if they didnt plan of making a takeover / merger in the near future. While nzo did pick up cheap ppp shares they could of got them alot cheaper if they took their time gaining a stake. the question is if the ppp shares were a bargain at what value do nzo consider them fair value in the current environment. nzo can only stall for so long and now we have additional drilling information around the drills in taranaki in the 3rd quarter i would expect for nzo to announce something sooner rather than later. If nzo is investing in another company it must imply they they expect a greater return to be made with that money outside of the company than simply reinvesting it. im expecting big things from ppp its leveraged much higher on tui success and failure so nzos move of buying into ppp must indicate they view tui as potentially containing much more oil. just my opinion of course i wonder what awe thinks about the present nzo ppp situation and weather it may have a crack at either of them prior to drilling.

If you look at the statement from Sailsbury about the buying up of PPP, you'll read that NZO paid what they believe was a 'fair price.' And it was...PPP was trading at below 20 cents for a few weeks there and then NZO comes in giving exiters a 50% premium. Nothing wrong with that.

It will be interesting to see what price settles to...I wouldnt expect NZO to pay too much more than 35cents for the extra 4.99% stake...

[tricha]

[quote=tricha;243286]WELL interesting stuff Phaedrus.

Do you realise your trend can not predict what is happening in the boardroom of NZO or PPP.


Come on Phaedrus, give it your best shot.

Mine is, see that cliff face on the chart, WELL we all know what that means.
At the end of the chart, expect to see all the lemming jumping off. A cliff face reversal formed, instantly NZO announce game over. Not to the same depth I might add, around 26 cents at the bottom. A bit of a mirror image.

However I would have to agree with Upside_Umop, 35 cents still equates to a great result in this market, but I doubt if the PPP directors would think so.
Still a toss that coin, folks. unpredictable.


PPPPAN PACIFIC PETROLEUM NL FPOhttp://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/australia.gif http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/PPP/6m/line/30/0/

[tricha]

Hmm Charting, for the birds.:rolleyes:

I'll stick to the fundamentals of PPP, oil is screwed, at the moment and for quite a while yet, by the look of things.:eek:

[boysy]

1/2 yearly out nothing much new to note except for the language used. Looks as though ppp are going after producing assets to add to their reserves to supplement declining tui output. interesting times for sure lets just hope ppp can get some bargain assets to create greater shareholder returns. Though the cash in the bank especially the usd demoninated accounts arent looking too bad. A $18 million gain on currency for the 1/2 year not bad.

[the machine]

what happenned to the monthly financial report inresponse to nzo play?

M

[tricha]

what happenned to the monthly financial report inresponse to nzo play?

M

Hmm, good point Machine , I take it because u r not ramping PPP anymore, u have seen the light AND sold most of your stock ?

[the machine]

Hmm, good point Machine , I take it because u r not ramping PPP anymore, u have seen the light AND sold most of your stock ?


still hold all my stock.

expect nzo will have a board meeting before release of the half yearly report next week where future ppp stragegy will be decided on

M

[Nitaa]

My take is that nzo are close to pulling the trigger again. they could easily snapp up the other 5% no problem. In saying that i dont think nzo are in a strong position for a takeover. i.e picking up ppp for a barain buy

[KentBrockman]

My take is that nzo are close to pulling the trigger again. they could easily snapp up the other 5% no problem. In saying that i dont think nzo are in a strong position for a takeover. i.e picking up ppp for a barain buy

LOL...and over on HC, EL and dargie (whos opinions I otherwise value; I guess they are NZO holders ;) keep dreaming about PPP getting taken over by NZO for 40cents.

There is no way that NZO will successfully acquire 90%+ of PPP for anything below 50cents.

[soletrader]

LOL...and over on HC, EL and dargie (whos opinions I otherwise value; I guess they are NZO holders ;) keep dreaming about PPP getting taken over by NZO for 40cents.

There is no way that NZO will successfully acquire 90%+ of PPP for anything below 50cents.

------------------------------
Precisely.

[the machine]

My take is that nzo are close to pulling the trigger again. they could easily snapp up the other 5% no problem. In saying that i dont think nzo are in a strong position for a takeover. i.e picking up ppp for a barain buy


would be happy if nzo stood in market and bought the extra 5% - do wonders for ppp sp
[which is about the only shining light in my portfolio lately]

as regards nzo launching a t/o, if/when it happens will be good.

M

[Dr_Who]

would be happy if nzo stood in market and bought the extra 5% - do wonders for ppp sp
[which is about the only shining light in my portfolio lately]

as regards nzo launching a t/o, if/when it happens will be good.

M

They should have done that in the first place and stood in market to buy 19.9%. All the consent should have been obtain prior to buying. NZO has made a mess of this. But then I suppose they do have time on their side and can wait till the price comes back before buying more. Assuming they want more.

[Sharp737]

Well, I sold mine but perhaps might be able to come back in later...if it's not too late

Sharp

[Sideshow Bob]

Sold at 30c, watched it go up and now back to 30c - lets see what next week brings...

[bermuda]

Sold at 30c, watched it go up and now back to 30c - lets see what next week brings...

I would suggest wait for the soft sellers to exit and then load up as much as you can get.
Dont hold.

[the machine]

I would suggest wait for the soft sellers to exit and then load up as much as you can get.
Dont hold.



heres the theory:

nzo pounce on monday [but only after asx opens]
that gives you 2 hours to buy on nzx.

nzo have track record of waiting for asx to open before they bought initial stake and most likely would do the same next time.

then by time nzo release their half yearly report on wednesday, they have reached 19.9% of ppp


M

[upside_umop]

Must be broken by now Professor Phaedrus?

[Phaedrus]

The uptrend? We both know the answer to that, UU.

The chart posted by Tricha (#976, page 66) on 17/2/09 contained a nice clear moving average crossover SELL signal and I was surprised that no-one commented on it. Maybe nobody even noticed it.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/PPP223.gif

[bermuda]

The uptrend? We both know the answer to that, UU.

The chart posted by Tricha (#976, page 66) on 17/2/09 contained a nice clear moving average crossover SELL signal and I was surprised that no-one commented on it. Maybe nobody even noticed it.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/PPP223.gif

Phaedrus,
We just had our NZ Shareholder meeting and I respectfully said that the most revealing posts were yours. And I went on to say that you had taught me never to buy in a downtrend and never to sell in an uptrend. Wise words. And words I have grown to understand. Thankyou.

And, without trying to be smart, could you explain the big uptrend in December?

[Phaedrus]

Could you explain the big uptrend in December?
Sorry Bermuda, I couldn't - luckily I don't have to! I could come up with a plausible hypothesis but it would be no more than that.

My preference is for technical analysis. I concentrate on market sentiment and prefer to leave "explanations" for a stocks behaviour to others. If a stock is falling, that's all I need to know - while it is interesting to speculate on possible reasons, they are nevertheless irrelevant.

[shasta]

Phaedrus,
We just had our NZ Shareholder meeting and I respectfully said that the most revealing posts were yours. And I went on to say that you had taught me never to buy in a downtrend and never to sell in an uptrend. Wise words. And words I have grown to understand. Thankyou.

And, without trying to be smart, could you explain the big uptrend in December?

Bermuda

On the 15th Dec PPP received a "please explain" by the ASX (SP jumped from 19.5c to 29.0c).

Two days later the NZO SSH showed they were buying...

The TA explanation would reflect the NZO buying (Phaedrus could you add in the OBV please?), as well as speculators regarding a takeover.

[bermuda]

Sorry Bermuda, I couldn't - luckily I don't have to! I could come up with a plausible hypothesis but it would be no more than that.

My preference is for technical analysis. I concentrate on market sentiment and prefer to leave "explanations" for a stocks behaviour to others. If a stock is falling, that's all I need to know - while it is interesting to speculate on possible reasons, they are nevertheless irrelevant.


Phraedrus,
Do you think your charts can predict a takeover? That is one of the principal reasons I invest. ( Dont trade ) A bagger is what I like. That is probably why I cant be bothered with charts. Because I dont trade. Just wait for the takeover. The Charts cant tell you that.

But, I am willing to learn. Perhaps there is a lead up buy in prior to a takeover. I just prefer to wait until the takeover happens. And you probably know there are a lot more on the Queensland CSG scene.

[Sehnsucht888]

The price is trending down, but the volumes are also... The volume is quite low at present - 500K on a high day, where as previously this was more like 1million, so an OBV perspective would indicate PP is just drifting.. ( I hope).

I would have thought the price decrease is more due to external factors - dow down 6+% in last week, and no direction rather than any real reason...

28c in cash backing now anyway (or there abouts) and growing.

[Nitaa]

The price is trending down, but the volumes are also... The volume is quite low at present - 500K on a high day, where as previously this was more like 1million, so an OBV perspective would indicate PP is just drifting.. ( I hope).

I would have thought the price decrease is more due to external factors - dow down 6+% in last week, and no direction rather than any real reason...

28c in cash backing now anyway (or there abouts) and growing.
Must be getting close for nzo to pick up the rest to bring it up near the 20% mark..

[Ketel One]

The price is trending down, but the volumes are also... The volume is quite low at present - 500K on a high day, where as previously this was more like 1million, so an OBV perspective would indicate PP is just drifting.. ( I hope).

I would have thought the price decrease is more due to external factors - dow down 6+% in last week, and no direction rather than any real reason...

28c in cash backing now anyway (or there abouts) and growing.

IMO the main influence on PPP's price after NZO buying up 15% has been people buying in hoping for a full takeover (the drift up after 30c - mid dec to feb) and then doubt and fear that nothing will eventuate (the drop back to 30c).

I don't think it's fundamentals driving PPP's price movement of late, just people hoping for a quick takeover buck, then getting cold feet worrying that NZO wouldn't be able to get it at a reasonable price and so selling out at a small profit and avoiding the all too common losses of capital these days...

[stevo1]

Sorry Bermuda, I couldn't - luckily I don't have to! I could come up with a plausible hypothesis but it would be no more than that.

My preference is for technical analysis. I concentrate on market sentiment and prefer to leave "explanations" for a stocks behaviour to others. If a stock is falling, that's all I need to know - while it is interesting to speculate on possible reasons, they are nevertheless irrelevant.

Phaedrus as TA is a reactive indicator it is feasible and possible for a takeover target to be "massaged" to fall to the advantage of the acquirer?In so much as to get the price down through technical barriers there by accelerating the fall and lining it up for a lowball offer.If this was the case does TA enable an indication of that?

[boysy]

from awe

Exploration

Moving on to AWE’s exploration plans, Wood said the company was planning to drill some 15 wells in four countries.

He confirmed AWE’s intention to utilise the Kan Tan IV semi-submersible rig to drill at least four exploration and appraisal wells in and around the Tui Area oil field in offshore Taranaki, New Zealand, later this year.

Wood said some wells would target oil plays, while others would target biogenic gas.

The first well would target the large Hoki oil prospect, northwest of Tui in licence PEP 38401, followed by some appraisal wells closer to Tui.

AWE had not yet decided which of Tui Southwest, Tui Southeast or Tui Northeast would be drilled.

There was also the high-risk Kahu Stratigraphic play, northeast of Tui, which could be as large as the 50.1 million barrel Tui field.

Wood said AWE and its Tui partners would aim to bring any successful near-field discoveries online as soon as possible, probably within one-and-a-half years.

The Tui Area FPSO Umuroa was now processing about 25,000 barrels of oil per day and AWE was forecasting the Tui, Amokura and Pateke oil pools would produce 9MMboe this financial year.



-this indicates that not 2 but perhaps 3 or more wells will be drilled in permits ppp has an interest in when awe goes drilling in the 3rd quarter in taranaki. And not all the targets are oil plays as read above

[Phaedrus]

Is it feasible and possible for a takeover target to be "massaged" to fall to the advantage of the acquirer? In so much as to get the price down through technical barriers there by accelerating the fall and lining it up for a lowball offer. If this was the case does FA enable an indication of that?Price manipulation certainly is feasible and I have no doubt that it happens on occasion. Have you ever tried it though? It is very difficult indeed to have other than a very small, very temporary effect.

The only way a shareprice can be forced down is by selling. Say a potential acquirer had 1 million shares and wanted 2 million. They could easily force (massage) the price down by selling - but of course this reduces the value of any shares they retain. Selling 1 million shares will surely lower the shareprice, but now they have to buy 2 million - which will just as surely raise the shareprice by even more.

Look at this from the point of view of those buying from the "acquirer" as he sells down. They are unlikely to jump at a barely higher offer a little later.

Then of course you have the "value" buyers picking up bargains as the price falls. Get enough of these and you trigger a new round of TA based "Buy" signals - leaving our hypothetical acquirer no better off, maybe worse off.

Even if a scheming acquirer drives the shareprice down by selling Short, these sales must be covered sooner or later by purchases - at whatever the going rate may be by that time. All in all, this is a fairly risky proposition and one that I suspect goes on a lot less frequently than we perhaps think.

[stevo1]

Thanks for the reply Phaedrus and AA "s input.
No I have never tried to manipulate a share and I can see the logic in what you are saying. However as an offer in a takeover situation is made on the basis of prior trading price of the shares then surely it would be in the acquirers interest to "massage " the targets SP through the Technical breaches to gain downward momentum and keep the SP within their target band.
The end game is after all to acquire the target completely (as opposed to a proportion) at the lest price and TA appears to allow a "map" to do this.
I can see what you mean if there is a buyer wanting a stake in the company but it appears that in a full takeover (particularly this bear market)a patient company could swing this.

[tricha]

@ 29.5 cents PPP becomes fair game again.

@ 35 cents it was evens
stevens.

Cash in the bank will equal 30 cents soon :rolleyes:

Hey Phaedrus, your chart is behind the 8 ball ;)

[Phaedrus]

Hey Phaedrus, your chart is behind the 8 ball
Behind the 8 ball, Tricha?
In an unfavorable or uncomfortable position?
In trouble?
In a difficult position from which escape is unlikely?

Nonsense!

Far from putting people in a difficult position, right now the chart would have them out of this stock altogether. Given that PPP is currently in a downtrend, this is a very good position to be in. Since the confluence of exit signals marked by the red diamond, PPP's shareprice has slumped in a very satisfactory manner.

Try and take a less partisan view of PPP, Tricha. It's just another stock! Aim for more objectivity and less emotional involvement. Stop seeing me and/or TA as the enemy. These are not my charts - all they do is show what the market currently thinks of PPP. The trend is supposed to be your friend, Tricha. You have made it your enemy, something to rail against. I don't think you understand the old aphorism "The market is always right".

Don't get all distressed and combative over fancy TA - even if all anyone did was buy when the uptrend began and sell when it ended they would have done very well indeed out of PPP. That is the main thing, surely?

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/PPP228.gif

[Nitaa]

Phaedrus.

Im with you and against you here. I am more of a fundamentalist than a TA. Probably to the tune of 95% fundamentalist and 5% TA. Based on your chart my view for PPP is therefore a hold or buy based on fundamentals. Since i dont really care what the sp does on a day to day basis the only real important outcome is what i buy a stock for and what i sell it for.

Touching on TA i have worked for a decade where people tried to gauge the future by looking in the rear view mirror. I agree with you that in the sharemarket there is a lot of truth to it but not always and juist maybe not most of the time. Why you may ask? Very simple. It is very easy to draw a conclusion after the fact, by drawing various unprends, downtrends, from various points etc. Using 30 day, 60 day OBV ( which may give you 2 different answers) and the list goes on.

Getting back to your analaysis, TA is only one tool at your disposal. I am going to stick my neck out here. At 29 cps for PPP the TA suggest to sell based on your theory but fundamentally to me its now a buy or at the very worst a hold. Therefore if i had to buy or sell this stock right now it wouild be a buy. I guess coupled with that you also need an exit stratergy. Therefore it would be a buy to hold for at least 6 months always keeping in mind the fundamentals which can change rapidly.

I recall telling Duncan that nzo was a screaminmg buy ealy last year when it was near $1.00 per share last year. In that case my view was the fundamentals were too strong to ignore compared to the TA. PPP was another that i bought the options at 4.1 cps simply on the fundamentals. Same story. However and that is a big however, the overal market sentiment i agree is in a down trend and the average investor would be foolish to buy the index or average stock in the current environment. As i pointed out there are some good buys being presented.

My tip of the week then is buy PPP. Going against TA but acknowledging the strength of FA.

[tricha]

Phaedrus.

Im with you and against you here. I am more of a fundamentalist than a TA. Probably to the tune of 95% fundamentalist and 5% TA. Based on your chart my view for PPP is therefore a hold or buy based on fundamentals. Since i dont really care what the sp does on a day to day basis the only real important outcome is what i buy a stock for and what i sell it for.

Touching on TA i have worked for a decade where people tried to gauge the future by looking in the rear view mirror. I agree with you that in the sharemarket there is a lot of truth to it but not always and juist maybe not most of the time. Why you may ask? Very simple. It is very easy to draw a conclusion after the fact, by drawing various unprends, downtrends, from various points etc. Using 30 day, 60 day OBV ( which may give you 2 different answers) and the list goes on.

Getting back to your analaysis, TA is only one tool at your disposal. I am going to stick my neck out here. At 29 cps for PPP the TA suggest to sell based on your theory but fundamentally to me its now a buy or at the very worst a hold. Therefore if i had to buy or sell this stock right now it wouild be a buy. I guess coupled with that you also need an exit stratergy. Therefore it would be a buy to hold for at least 6 months always keeping in mind the fundamentals which can change rapidly.

I recall telling Duncan that nzo was a screaminmg buy ealy last year when it was near $1.00 per share last year. In that case my view was the fundamentals were too strong to ignore compared to the TA. PPP was another that i bought the options at 4.1 cps simply on the fundamentals. Same story. However and that is a big however, the overal market sentiment i agree is in a down trend and the average investor would be foolish to buy the index or average stock in the current environment. As i pointed out there are some good buys being presented.

My tip of the week then is buy PPP. Going against TA but acknowledging the strength of FA.

Here we go Phaedrus. Different strokes for different folks. Fundamentally PPP is a buy again, under 30 cents. Totally agree with Nita here, PPP now a buy and you are calling it a sell.

Thats why I have bought back and if it falls more, the more I will keep buying.

Why.?

My basic valuation is unrisked at 41 cents.

At 35 cents we are getting too close for comfort, at under 30 we have a margain for error and a bigger profit margain if NZO act. Under 30 cents and their cash content is closing in fast, while the OZ dollar is falling against the US, ( but that could reverse tomorrow ) yes folks work it out, PPP have made big currency gains from the end of the last quarter on the US dollar. :D
And of course, there is a much higher chance NZO will act, in our favour below 30 cents.

At the end of the day the NZO and PPP board will decide this one, not TA.

My bet is NZO offering 40 cents a share, with PPP made up of 30 cents cash and NZO really only forking out 10 cents a share.;)

It might be why NZO are not paying a half yearly dividend.

[macduffy]

I may be wrong but my interpretation is that Phaedrus is saying that PPP is not a Buy at the present time.

This is not to say that it won't be at some future point. The risk in following that line is that a move by NZO, or anyone else, may not be signalled in time to buy back in and that those currently "out" may miss out on some of the upside.

[Phaedrus]

At 29 cps for PPP the TA suggest to sell based on your theory No, TA suggested a sell at 32 cents.


I dont really care what the sp does on a day to day basis- the only real important outcome is what i buy a stock for and what i sell it for. OK. So your entry price is really important to you - as also is your exit price. Right?


Fundamentally to me its now a buy or at the very worst a hold. Therefore if i had to buy or sell this stock right now it would be a buy. Nita, here is the flaw in your logic. I accept that PPP is now a buy on fundamentals BUT you do NOT have to buy OR sell this stock right now. Doing nothing is a viable option, too.


I guess coupled with that you also need an exit strategy. You sure got that right! That's an interesting comment, coming from you, Nita! What form would you see this strategy taking? Surely, if you see the need for an exit strategy, you can also see the need for an entry strategy? They are equally important, and you have already told us that your entry and exit prices are really important to you. Why not wait until momentum is running with you before acting? Why fight the market?


I guess coupled with that you also need an exit strategy. Therefore it would be a buy to hold for at least 6 months Again, faulty logic. Can you not see the conflict between these 2 statements? You can have one or the other, but not both. Deciding to buy and hold for a certain time is not an exit strategy - in a falling market it is a recipe for disaster.

Nita, more than anything else what you and Tricha need are entry and exit strategies. This presents no conflict at all with your fundamental views. Many of the competent fundamentalists here on ST (W69, Hoop, Footsie etc) have no difficulty at all in combining fundamental and technical analysis. There is no reason whatsoever why you shouldn't identify good fundamental stocks and use TA to help time your entry and exit. Example :-


The bad news is we are in a bear market and fundamentals don't mean much because the bear can't count. Rely on TA for buying opportunities/timing - not FA

[Phaedrus]

Fundamentally... PPP is now a buy and you are calling it a sell. No, I am NOT calling PPP a sell. It was a sell at 32 cents.


... Thats why I have bought back and if it falls more, the more I will keep buying.Well, that IS your usual approach, Tricha. Buy a downtrending stock and then buy more as the price continues to fall. Average down! You have had some absolute disasters pursuing this approach so I am quite surprised that you still advocate it.


At the end of the day the NZO and PPP board will decide this one, not TA.No, it is the market that will decide on the "worth" of PPP at any given time. The charts and TA show us what the market is doing.

Tricha, you have no buy or sell strategy. For example, you bought PPP at 27 cents when it was in a downtrend. (The price continued to fall - all the way down to 18 cents.) You sold PPP at 28 cents when it was in an uptrend. (The price continued to rise, all the way up to 35 cents.) You totally ignored the prevailing market sentiment and bought and sold when the trend was running against you. We both know that it is virtually impossible to buy at the bottom or sell at the top but it is easy to see that you were buying in spite of an established downtrend and later selling into an on-going uptrend. You would have done far better holding off and waiting until the trend weakened or reversed before acting. Listen to the market.

I accept that you have identified PPP as a fundamental buy. I happen to agree with you, but what you and I think is immaterial. It is the market opinion that really matters. Until it agrees with us, we are wasting time and money.

Tricha, you seem very conflicted over this issue. Here, for example, is a quote that you agreed with 100% :-


Sentiment rules above every thing else ...Sadly.....
It rules above logic,
It rules above reason,
It rules above Fundamentals
and if your not clued up....
It will Rule above YOU!

You agree that Sentiment matters more than fundamentals yet today you are foolishly claiming "TA on this stock means absolutely zero"! Tricha, charts and TA are no more than the means by which we monitor market sentiment.

Ignore market sentiment and it will cost you.

[Nitaa]

No, TA suggested a sell at 32 cents.

OK. So your entry price is really important to you - as also is your exit price. Right?
Correct

Nita, here is the flaw in your logic. I accept that PPP is now a buy on fundamentals BUT you do NOT have to buy OR sell this stock right now. Doing nothing is a viable option, too.
Correct. However if you read my statement correct i made the coment "IF i had to BUY or SELL this stock right now". If being the key word and simply hypothetical.

You sure got that right! That's an interesting comment, coming from you, Nita! What form would you see this strategy taking? Surely, if you see the need for an exit strategy, you can also see the need for an entry strategy? They are equally important, and you have already told us that your entry and exit prices are really important to you. Why not wait until momentum is running with you before acting? Why fight the market?
Its not about fighting the market it is simply buying on valuation. As i have mentioned in my previous post i use fundamentals a lot more than TA. Sometimes if the valuation puts you in an advantage at the time then why wait? Yes it may be cheaper tomorrow but i dont really care what the sp does in the interim?

Again, faulty logic. Can you not see the conflict between these 2 statements? You can have one or the other, but not both. Deciding to buy and hold for a certain time is not an exit strategy - in a falling market it is a recipe for disaster.
I am not sure how. I gave a hypothetrical scenerio before but now i am talking about reality. My personal view based in FA is that PPP is either a buy or hold. Since i hold this stock already and have enough exposure (you can call it risk) i do not need to buy anymore. I will therefore review the position in about 6 months time unless there has been a substantial change to the fundamentals or my personal circumstances.

Nita, more than anything else what you and Tricha need are entry and exit strategies. This presents no conflict at all with your fundamental views. Many of the competent fundamentalists here on ST (W69, Hoop, Footsie etc) have no difficulty at all in combining fundamental and technical analysis. There is no reason whatsoever why you shouldn't identify good fundamental stocks and use TA to help time your entry and exit. Example :-
Since i dont trade that often TA is not the number 1 tool (but as i have mentioned it does play a part on occasions) i am likely to use. It may or may not be used as part of my decision making but since my investments are based on medium to long term then i do not have to worry too much about it. As i mentioned before, stocks can be revisited only when they need to be for me. That will happen when fundaments change which may or may not result in a decision to sell.

One thing to consider, we all have different strategies to each other for a reason. Your system seems to work for you and mine is working for me. Until there is a change in this area why should i change something that works? Warren Buffet is renowned as being an astute investor but without looking into details i believe that FA would far overide TA in his decision making. I guess you believe in the Elliot Wave Theory? I would say its called a theory because its not proven yet.

[tricha]

No, I am NOT calling PPP a sell. It was a sell at 32 cents.


Ignore market sentiment and it will cost you.

It was a sell for me at


Quantity Sold 100000 at average price 0.3399 AUD 33,992.74 CR

Different strokes for different folks Phaedrus, I actually had 400K of them at one stage and I averaged down to buy, my last buy at 18.5 cents and I averaged out on the way up, last sale at 34 cents.

PPP is under 30 cents and a good buy and there is much more chance of NZO taking them at this price.
TA I repeat, will not pick what will happen in the board room. If NZO pulls the pin I still expect 26 cents for the short term.

Toss that coin folks, but under 30 cents the odds get better.;)

Best of luck folks.!

[Thumpa]

The wee Bot buying has started again . chipping away each minute @ 29 cents .

[Nitaa]

The wee Bot buying has started again . chipping away each minute @ 29 cents .Is that buying on TA or FA. If it is nzo buying then my above posts who Phaedrus didnt like has merit.

As Tricha rightly pointed out its horses for courses.

[tricha]

Thumpa - "The wee Bot buying has started again . chipping away each minute @ 29 cents . "

Thats the problem NZO face, 29 cents :D three weeks to go and Pan Pacific will lock in 29 cents cash per share backing.

The rest is free. ;)

And then 6 monthes to drilling, interesting.

My valuation at $30 US a barrel for PPP = 41 cents a share, un risked and better than money in the bank, oh, what a ramp.

Phaedrus thats the dilemma u face. Factual Information - Cash is King in this market and PPP have wheelbarrels full. Literally

P.S 41 cents is bottom, nothing allowed for the next 50 million barrels of Tui oil.

[Phaedrus]

my...posts (that) Phaedrus didnt like....
I quite like your posts, Nita.

I was simply pointing out an inconsistency.

You accept the need for an exit strategy - but don't appear to have one.

[Phaedrus]

My valuation at $30 US a barrel for PPP = 41 cents a share.... Phaedrus thats the dilemma u face.I don't face a dilemma here Tricha. You do!

The problem :- You hold PPP, a stock in a downtrend that you value at 41 cents, while the market values it at 29 cents.
What to do?
Buy more - average down?
Sell at a loss?
Hold a falling stock?
Do nothing - and hope?
None of these options are very good, Tricha. You face a real dilemma here!

Now look at this from my perspective. Right, wrong, good, bad or indifferent, TA would have you out of this stock right now.
Buy? Nah - no Buy signal..
Sell? Nah - the Sell signal was weeks ago.
Hold? A falling stock? Nah.
That leaves doing nothing as the only logical option here.....So where is the dilemma?

Answer :- There isn't one!

[Dr_Who]

Have you guys ever thought what if NZO doesnt want to T/O PPP?

[ronthepom]

Hi,

out of interest, as both vpe and ppp are at 29c which one would you buy?

i do hold, but just wondered what the general feeling is. Hmm could be interesting.

[the machine]

Have you guys ever thought what if NZO doesnt want to T/O PPP?

not until now.

guess ppp sp would stay around its cash backing of about 28-29c au

as regards to nzo, that would raise the question of why are they speculating with shareholders funds, clearly contrary to their stated position last year after it was raised on this thread that investing a few million dollars in both awe and ppp would be a good idea.

M