PPP = Cash and they blew it!

[Hoop]

Hi M,
Support over the last few weeks at 20.5 was broken yesterday on what was a good day. Would that mean wait and see?

Yes Strat
Need to keep an eye on this stock.

It broke the small trading range support and the wma30 (red circles)
There is another support at 20c which PPP is testing

Needs to break 19cents immediately (uptrend) for me to get the worry beads out.

[the machine]

time to pounce ;)

did already a few weeks back @ 19c au

M

[tricha]

I wonder what the mighty one, who is on holiday, would have to say about the past :confused:
To me ( ramping again as it's my major holding ), its holding it' own at a whooping 20% discount to cash ;)


PPPPAN PACIFIC PETROLEUM NL FPOhttp://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/australia.gif http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/PPP/1y/line/30/0/

[Zephyrus]

Oil doesn't need to increase for this to be good value. I'm holding & keen to add if the shareprice drops.

[KentBrockman]

May sound stupid, but how about buying distressed ADY's lithium asset for a cool $30mil. It's not oil, of course, but it's like having an each way bet on energy. Shell, Exxon etc they all do that.

And ADY is desperate (and incompetent) and it looks like the receiver will move in any moment now, after the lasted attempt to sell this asset bombed.

[macduffy]

May sound stupid, but how about buying distressed ADY's lithium asset for a cool $30mil. It's not oil, of course, but it's like having an each way bet on energy. Shell, Exxon etc they all do that.

And ADY is desperate (and incompetent) and it looks like the receiver will move in any moment now, after the lasted attempt to sell this asset bombed.

I don't see that PPP has any expertise in anything other than oil. Operates on a very small staff, or so I'm told.

[Crypto Crude]

zephyrus-Oil doesn't need to increase for this to be good value. I'm holding & keen to add if the shareprice drops.


exactly right mate.
if oil falls, then next year PPP will make acquisition/s at cheaper prices...
if oil up, or down dont really matter...
very good value stocked... screamer at 18-20cents...
chao...
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

exactly right mate.
if oil falls, then next year PPP will make acquisition/s at cheaper prices...
if oil up, or down dont really matter...
very good value stocked... screamer at 18-20cents...
chao...
:cool:
.^sc

Which option should PPP take ?????????????????????

Option A - Right now is the time to do a share buy back, take a 100 miillion shares of the market below 25 cents, will add value to the existing shareholders.

Option B - Where is a value added stock that is worth picking up at the moment.

Option C- do nothing and wait for even better oportunities.

Come on folks, what would u do :confused:

[Huang Chung]

Which option should PPP take ?????????????????????

Option A - Right now is the time to do a share buy back, take a 100 miillion shares of the market below 25 cents, will add value to the existing shareholders.

Option B - Where is a value added stock that is worth picking up at the moment.

Option C- do nothing and wait for even better oportunities.

Come on folks, what would u do :confused:

Option D -squeeze what you can get out of Tui, pay as much of the proceeds as possible as a fully franked dividend, and then liquidate PPP, returning capital to shareholders. Not that thet's ever going to happen mind you.

[Dr_Who]

Option D -squeeze what you can get out of Tui, pay as much of the proceeds as possible as a fully franked dividend, and then liquidate PPP, returning capital to shareholders. Not that thet's ever going to happen mind you.

If they do that the directors will receive no management fees and we cant have that can we? LOL

I prefer a 50% distribution of cash to shareholders and the other 50% for an acquisition. Cheaper to buy out an oiler than to go exploring in the unknown.

[Zephyrus]

If they do that the directors will receive no management fees and we cant have that can we? LOL

I prefer a 50% distribution of cash to shareholders and the other 50% for an acquisition. Cheaper to buy out an oiler than to go exploring in the unknown.

If they did that Doc, they wouldn't have any money to fund development of the new aquisition (assuming it wouldn't be self-funding).

[the machine]

price of oil is having a big impact on sp - how low will it go?

on reflection it has been very fortunate tui's first year of production under high oil prices enabled dept to be repaid a no brainer really.

the lower the oil price, the lower the stockmarket falls and as time marches on, the more distressed projects are available for ppp

ie what was yesterdays bargain project now seems overpriced



meanwhile sp bouncing along the bottom

M

[macduffy]

I would suspect that the state of the market is as much a factor as the PoO. It's not just the oilers that are down heavily again today.

;)

[Dr_Who]

If they did that Doc, they wouldn't have any money to fund development of the new aquisition (assuming it wouldn't be self-funding).

Script T/O + small amount of cash is enough to tempt any shareholders in this market. There are a large number of very good junior oilers out there for the picking.

Distribute AU$50 m back to sh and retain AU$100m cash for M&A. Maybe a share buyback or special div. What ever is most tax effective.

Do you think they will shut down Tui production if oil hits $20bbl? It is not inconceivable to see oil at $20bbl.

[the machine]

with poo so low it is good that tui 2009 drilling is for exploration instead of including 1 development well.

m

[macduffy]

"Im only buying companies that, if they failed for some reason would be able to pay me back my capital (ie NET cash or liquid assets greater than MC)


PPP" QUOTE.

The problem with that is that by the time they fail, the cash/NTA has dwindled away. It only works if you are able to monitor closely and sell at any hint of bad news. Even then, surprises have a nasty habit of " surprising".

;)

[the machine]

Crude Oil Traders Reposition for Price Rise, CFTC Data Shows

By Dan Stets

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators reversed from a net-short position to a net-long position in New York crude-oil futures in the week ended Nov. 18, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Each Friday the CFTC publishes aggregate numbers for long and short positions for speculators such as hedge funds and institutional investors, as well as commercial companies that buy or sell futures to protect against price moves. Analysts and investors follow changes in speculators' positions because such transactions can reflect an expectation of a change in prices.

Last Updated: November 21, 2008 15:36 EST

[boysy]

a steal at these prices it just sad to see mr market hasnt woken up to this fact already though it provides buying opportunities.

[Dr_Who]

a steal at these prices it just sad to see mr market hasnt woken up to this fact already though it provides buying opportunities.

I bought some more on Friday. It is now trading 40-50% below net cash holding in the bank. :)

[macduffy]

I bought some more on Friday. It is now trading 40-50% below net cash holding in the bank. :)

You're in good company, doc.
Allan Tattersfield's bought another 700k. Now has 75m odd.
A fairly clear message there!

;)

Disc: Holding a lot less than AT.

[Dr_Who]

I will continue to buy PPP on market weakness. It just sounds too good to be true that it is trading at such a huge discount to net cash and the company is still making profit as long as oil price stay above $US10bbl.

Time will if I am right or wrong.

[the machine]

AT bought another 700,000 dirt cheap

M

[Dr_Who]

Interesting to see that the directors continue to mop up stock. They are not shy and continue to add large amount to their already significant holding. This is a add of confidence.

[macduffy]

I've just read elsewhere that AWE have announced a special div of 10cps, fully franked.
I wonder if PPP will follow their (Tui) example?

;)

[Dr_Who]

I've just read elsewhere that AWE have announced a special div of 10cps, fully franked.
I wonder if PPP will follow their (Tui) example?

;)

I think that PPP should distribute some of that cash back to sh. We should let the management hog all the cash to fund their lifestyle. At least give back $30-50 million back to sh.

Maybe the directors have to satisfied themselves with enough PPP shares before announcing capital payment back to sh?

[Corporate]

I think that PPP should distribute some of that cash back to sh. We should let the management hog all the cash to fund their lifestyle. At least give back $30-50 million back to sh.

Maybe the directors have to satisfied themselves with enough PPP shares before announcing capital payment back to sh?

how is hogging all the cash, funding their lifestyle?

[Dr_Who]

I worded it wrong. What I mean is management should not spent all the funds on potential M&A or projects so that they could justify a possible management fee increase in the future. Some of that cash should go back to the sh, esp the long term sh who has supported PPP for a period of time.

It would be great to see PPP distribute $40m back to sh in the most tax effective way. If it is a special div, sh can get 6.8 cps.

[boysy]

PPP should hold onto their cash for now it makes much more sense creating value through aquisitions than simply raiding the family silverware when times get tough. As long as management pursues oportunities and actively creates value for the company their is no point for a dividend near the size that dr who was talking of. I mean a 5-9 cent dividend on a 20 cent share seems a bit large. I hope that PPP make the most of these difficult times as they are a company that is well positioned to benifit from other companies misfortunes.

[macduffy]

Yes, from a re-reading of the AWE announcement I now wouldn't expect PPP to follow suit.
AWE is making use of the Aust franking credits arising from the takeover of ARQ. The Tui profits don't create Aust franking credits apparently and I would think it unlikely that PPP would want to pay an unfranked div to its Aussie s/holders.
That's okay by me so long as the PPP cash is spent wisely!

;)

[Dr_Who]

PPP graph is looking good. :)

[tricha]

Yes, from a re-reading of the AWE announcement I now wouldn't expect PPP to follow suit.
AWE is making use of the Aust franking credits arising from the takeover of ARQ. The Tui profits don't create Aust franking credits apparently and I would think it unlikely that PPP would want to pay an unfranked div to its Aussie s/holders.
That's okay by me so long as the PPP cash is spent wisely!

;)

Oh I reckon it will be spent wisely, they are out to get something for 10 cents in the $ and in this cash strapped climate, there are companies ripe for it. They are desparate. :rolleyes: and Pan Pacific Petroleum have it in abundance.

[boysy]

Every day PPP is still making good money from TUI not to mention the forign exchange gains.

ppp cash held as 30th sept

6.9 mill $NZ / 1.2 = $5,750,000
28.3 mill A$ = $28,300,000
74.7 mill $US / 0.65 = $115,000,000

cash equivilent at 30 sept = A$ 149 million

sales between then and november 30th = 1,700,000 barrels ( ppp's share 170,000 )

so far oil has been sold at over US$80 for this quarter and the majority being held in USDs

USD$80 * 170,000 - tax - royalties
= USD$6 million

so we can conclude that the cash held now must be approaching A$160 million or

$160 million / 588.6 million

= $0.27 cash against a share price of $.215

what more can be said really

[Dr_Who]

The last PPP AGM have the forex holdings at...

USD 44 m
AUD 55m
NZD 37m

:)

On those numbers you should get more than 27 cps net cash.

[the machine]

ppp still bouncing along near the bottom of trading range

can't see a breakout until oil price recovers somewhat opec meeting on 17th maybe - but at best might see sp back to just above 22c au

M

[boysy]

short term pain long term gain in ppps case with the lower oil price many promising exploration companies will be going for the cheap

[the machine]

expect july - oct before oil went bust ppp would have banked a lot of $.

income over next 7 months, plus interest and nil debt should still see a healthy profit for the year - perhaps not as much as aud$50m though

M

[Dr_Who]

expect july - oct before oil went bust ppp would have banked a lot of $.

income over next 7 months, plus interest and nil debt should still see a healthy profit for the year - perhaps not as much as aud$50m though

M

I am forecasting around $30-$40m. Hope oil stays up.

Merrill is forecasting oil at $25bbl. But then they did got it wrong last time.

[boysy]

PPP holding up well in as oil falls. On my watchlist PPP the only oil and gas stock not in the red today as other oil and gas stocks test their 52 week lows.

[macduffy]

I am forecasting around $30-$40m. Hope oil stays up.

Merrill is forecasting oil at $25bbl. But then they did got it wrong last time.

NZO chairman's address of 29 October showed Tui cost of production at NZD75 bbl. This included tax and royalties which of course reduce as the PoO drops.
Nevertheless, on today's exchange rates, this doesn't leave much of a profit margin with Tui oil sold relative to Tapis and Tapis now down to a little over USD43bbl.

Disc: Holding PPP.

[boysy]

Going by those figures and todays exchange rate the price of oil would need to fall down to around US$30 a barrel before tui would not be profitable.

[Dr_Who]

There will be far more serious implications for NZO than PPP.

PPP's net cash is around 28 cps with sp trading at only 20 cps. The sp is trading at a discount of 40% to net cash holding.

NZO's cash + PRC holding is around 95 cps, currently sp trading at $1.24. NZO sp is trading at a 30% premium.

[macduffy]

Going by those figures and todays exchange rate the price of oil would need to fall down to around US$30 a barrel before tui would not be profitable.

Difficult to know because NZO's cost of NZD75 would have included elements priced in USD and calculated at then exchange rates.
The large chunks of depreciation and amortisation, marketing and production expenses are probably a mix of currency expenditures with a lot in NZD. PPP account in AUD of course so the NZD/AUD cross rate comes into the equation as well when considering costs from PPP's point of view!
All a bit hard for me!

[boysy]

indeed i found it a bit hard to compute that only 45 out of the 120 was profit for nzo as their full year results wouldnt make sence.

[boysy]

PPP cash over A$150 million +

market cap A $118 million

over a 25 % discount on cash alone compared to

A$118 million - $150 million cash = - A$32 million for 10 % share in profit producing tui and permits

NZO cash NZ$215 million
PRC holding NZ$ 75 million
Kupe ?
Other permits
Tui 12.5 % ?

current sp = NZ$ 491 million - cash - prc = $ 201 million for the 12.5 % stake Tui Kupe and permits

it just doesnt add up

[upside_umop]

it just doesnt add up

Thats exactly why I've been selling NZO... NZO does have fixed gas prices however...but still too much allocated to tui and kupe considering your buying tui with PPP for -32 million! or in other words...they're paying us to give money to us?!

Depreciation/amortisation are computed from the exchange rate when the project was completed and depreciated accordingly.. i would expect them to have changed their depreciation method because of the increased expected life of the field and better production rates.

The difference between PPP/NZO will be small, as the only benefit that the depreciation gives is the tax shield which will is the maginal rate X depreciation expense. Considering the exchange rates are similar to when the project was completed, its not inaccurate to directly compare for our purposes.

[Corporate]

Depreciation/amortisation are computed from the exchange rate when the project was completed and depreciated accordingly.. i would expect them to have changed their depreciation method because of the increased expected life of the field and better production rates.




That doesn't make sense. What has exchange rates got to do with Depreciation/amortisation of production assets?

[the machine]

NZO chairman's address of 29 October showed Tui cost of production at NZD75 bbl. This included tax and royalties which of course reduce as the PoO drops.
Nevertheless, on today's exchange rates, this doesn't leave much of a profit margin with Tui oil sold relative to Tapis and Tapis now down to a little over USD43bbl.

Disc: Holding PPP.


production costs about usd$10
marketing costs about usd$7

remainder covers tax royalties and profit

how lucky were tui partners to be able to repay all debt in a time of record oil prices and still have heaps of $ left over earning interest

compare that to horizon and cue who have expozure to maari, with high development costs and facing POO going down

M

[tricha]

There will be far more serious implications for NZO than PPP.

PPP's net cash is around 28 cps with sp trading at only 20 cps. The sp is trading at a discount of 40% to net cash holding.

NZO's cash + PRC holding is around 95 cps, currently sp trading at $1.24. NZO sp is trading at a 30% premium.

Oh it makes sense, PPP is an absolute bargin. ;) The directors keep telling us that when, they buy more :p

[tricha]

Oh and here is the good oil.

They have bucket fills of cash.

And when they STRIKE, they want it at 10 cents in the dollar :D

[upside_umop]

That doesn't make sense. What has exchange rates got to do with Depreciation/amortisation of production assets?

It doesnt affect it now...

It was only when the project was completed (it was in USD terms) when the total cost in NZD could be computed. Therefore depreciation rates would be computed at the end of the project and used thereafter. Exchange rates now have nothing to do with it....

[Corporate]

It doesnt affect it now...

It was only when the project was completed (it was in USD terms) when the total cost in NZD could be computed. Therefore depreciation rates would be computed at the end of the project and used thereafter. Exchange rates now have nothing to do with it....


I think you'll find that asset purchases are converted at the spot rate at the time. Not at the end of the project. But this means very little for our discussion on PPP

Your right about the depreciation increasing/decreasing with increases/decreases in productions and reserve estimates.

[boysy]

Oil down to $41 hope ppp is still evaluating options for t/o or aquisitions. Oil and gas companies coming online must really be hurting and those with dept are in a desperate position.

[Dr_Who]

PPP should buy a car parts company. When oil are low at these levels people will drive more... LOL

[Huang Chung]

PPP should buy a car parts company. When oil are low at these levels people will drive more... LOL

General Motors and Chrysler might be available at fire sale prices anytime now :rolleyes:.

[tricha]

Oil down to $41 hope ppp is still evaluating options for t/o or aquisitions. Oil and gas companies coming online must really be hurting and those with dept are in a desperate position.

Yes it's going to be interesting to see where their cash takes them, 10 cents in the dollar ;) buying opportunities.

[boysy]

from ppps agm

"PPP is actively seeking growth opportunities with a priority goal to acquire pre or early development oil reserves to provide short term production and replacement of the declining Tui Area Fields. In parallel with this effort we aim to develop a material, balanced exploration portfolio of opportunities in proven basins, with a priority on low-medium, rather than high risk prospects"

i wonder at what stage PPP may look at another oiler in the taranaki region ? cue and horizon oil come to mind. Though i have the feeling that oil will fall further in the short terms so better bargains may be had elsewhere what are peoples thoughts views ?

[macduffy]

I can't imagine the two major shareholders of CUE being prepared to sell out to PPP for anything like what PPP might be prepared to offer.
Todds and SPC are long term players in the energy game. I would see them as more likely to make an offer for PPP than the other way around but then the directors of PPP aren't going to give their company away either.
Don't know enough about HZN to comment.

;)

[the machine]

Oil down to $41 hope ppp is still evaluating options for t/o or aquisitions. Oil and gas companies coming online must really be hurting and those with dept are in a desperate position.

but remember ppp have the hedge postions so can sell some for about usd$52/barrel

M

[boysy]

what was their hegde position anyway ? i remember it was about US$52 but how much of a hedge did they have in place ?

[tricha]

what was their hegde position anyway ? i remember it was about US$52 but how much of a hedge did they have in place ?

Looks like some money to be made from the rest of the hedging


Hedged Position
During 2007 the Company hedged by way of put options approximately 719,000 barrels of oil to provide downside protection in oil prices. The Company partially offset the cost of the put options by selling call options requiring the company to deliver no more than 187,600 barrels of oil at $92.00. As at 30 June 2008, of the 187,600 barrels of oil, 72,890 barrels had expired at no cost to the Company, while a further 47,767 barrels were cash settled on maturity of the call options at a cost of USD$727,117. The remaining 87,744 mature over the period July 2008 to March 2010.
B Flatters-Wright

Company Secretary
31 July 2008
__________________________________________________ _______________________________

[the machine]

heard an interview about the reindeer gas project being shelved and apache had ambitions for gather gas from various fields [which probably included some where ppp had an interest]

corvus?

anyway, all gone to the backburner until domestic gas demand in WA takes off again

[alcoa being a big user have deferred expansion plans as well]

M

[the machine]

see on nzo website that tui now shut in for about 7 days inspection and maintenence.

pretty good timing re oil price being low.

has produced 5m barrels so far this year

M

[da puntzda]

Anyone know why there are so many small ASX trades in thsi stock today?

[the machine]

Anyone know why there are so many small ASX trades in thsi stock today?


no, but the higher volume and jump in sp contrary to market overall a good day for ppp

m

[tricha]

see on nzo website that tui now shut in for about 7 days inspection and maintenence.

pretty good timing re oil price being low.

has produced 5m barrels so far this year

M

It's a shame they can not just turn the tap off, till the price comes good, with 150 million in the bank, who cares if they leave it in the ground for a year or three. ;)

[the machine]

It's a shame they can not just turn the tap off, till the price comes good, with 150 million in the bank, who cares if they leave it in the ground for a year or three. ;)

you know they can't - ongoing daily cost for fsop for one

m

[da puntzda]

Serious interest in PPP today on both sides of the ditch - long overdue

[upside_umop]

Was about to say the same.

According to NZOG website, no extra well is needed for the 50.1 million recoverable barrels of oil. This reduces capex and will also provide upside if they do decide to drill into the existing reservoir to up the reserves.

Then on top of that, they have the upside for tui expansion...

PPP is set to dominate, as long as oil doesnt stay down for a prolonged period. Even saying that, they should be able to rough it out with their cash in the bank.

[da puntzda]

Now we are back to this bizzare reporting of small trades at 22cents (ASX) - cant quite figure this out - why would someone buy shares with heaps of small trades? - same thing was happening on Friday - would this mean a broker was buying or is the way the depth is displaying this data misleading - must be expensive on brokerage otherwise????

[macduffy]

These are probably computer-generated trades, designed, so the theory goes, to try to buy ( or sell) at the average daily price. Brokerage would be by arrangement and not your normal rate.
At least, that's one possible explanation.


;)

[boysy]

glad to see PPP up today though we all know that pp has the largest exposure to tui relative to market cap so any good news from tui should especially be good news for ppp.

[Sehnsucht888]

There had been 450K odd on the sell side earlier, gone pretty quickly.

Interesting that the bulk of NZX PPP trades went through at 12:05/12:06, when the NZO announcement is stamped at 12:11 on Directs web site...
How come PPP themselves haven't published it??

[boysy]

good release by NZO today brings some good news about the taranaki basin and also talks about hector again and the likely drilling campaign of 2009.

[boysy]

wats going on up 5 cents on the nzx up to 28 cents ?

[boysy]

10 million shares on the asx last trade 28 aus man whats going on behind the scene

[Sehnsucht888]

nice - up 9c on the NZX now.... How long till the ASX puts out a price query?

[boysy]

not a bad day for ppp so far i cant get onto asb securities does anyone know whats happening or the cause of this jump

[Dr_Who]

Whats up? Something is up!!

[upside_umop]

I can't believe this...asbsecurities isnt working at the moment!

This is by far by largest holding...like tricha i think.

Exciting stuff.

Anyone got a live quote? Or announcement?

[boysy]

last quote 28 on the asx and 32 on the nzx

[Dr_Who]

There should be a stock exchange price enquiry or an announcement from the company. This is very exciting. I ve sold some shares at these levels just in case nothing comes out of it.

[Stranger_Danger]

Selling? The merits of PPP are well documented in this thread, why sell a debt free cash cow in a recession for a few more cents than it was yesterday?

Disc : hold PPP

[Dr_Who]

Selling? The merits of PPP are well documented in this thread, why sell a debt free cash cow in a recession for a few more cents than it was yesterday?

Disc : hold PPP

I have plenty of PPP I bought 20 cents and below. There is nothing wrong with taking some profit. My numbers say PPP cash is around 28 cents. If the sp goes higher, the better cos I still have shares, didnt sell everything .. HAHAHA WOOT!

[Stranger_Danger]

Well done Dr - I have an average of 20 but will hold all for now. I understand taking a profit in this market, but I prefer selling my shares for more than their cash holdings.

[upside_umop]

yeah i agree..your just selling at net cash backing.

directors will argue there is plenty more potential and stock will rise further given they have the blocking stake.

i will take 38-39 cents nzd...my average 24 cents nzd.

[boysy]

how quick do ppp have to post an update to the stock exchanges due to this jump in its sp anyone know ?

[Dr_Who]

IF you want a stock exchange enquiry, ask your broker to file one. If you have been kind, he/she wont mind filing one for you. ;)

[Dr_Who]

No one seems to know whats going on. Spoke to a few brokers and they too are clueless.

disc. sold some but still have some.. :)

[boysy]

well we can rule out few possibilities cant we i mean otherwise we would have already seen announcements on the stockexchanges already cant we ?

[Corporate]

Trade
Number (s) Time
Last Traded Price Volume Change Value Number
of Trades
551 2:00:00 pm 28.5 217 0.5 $62 1
543 - 550 1:59:42 pm 28 30,277 0.5 $8,478 8
540 - 542 1:56:34 pm 28.5 3,041 0.5 $867 3
506 - 539 1:53:43 pm 28 648,899 0.5 $181,692 34
504 - 505 1:39:26 pm 28.5 796 0.5 $227 2
488 - 503 1:38:30 pm 28 422,251 0.5 $118,230 16
483 - 487 1:32:15 pm 27.5 125,000 0.5 $34,375 5
482 1:32:02 pm 28 249 0.5 $70 1
474 - 481 1:31:52 pm 27.5 406,634 0.5 $111,824 8
453 - 473 1:29:40 pm 28 163,634 0.5 $45,818 21
451 - 452 1:22:17 pm 27.5 100,000 0.5 $27,500 2
447 - 450 1:20:25 pm 28 95,367 0.5 $26,703 4
445 - 446 1:20:12 pm 28.5 460 0.5 $131 2
435 - 444 1:19:36 pm 28 166,000 0.5 $46,480 10
431 - 434 1:14:41 pm 28.5 2,249 0.5 $641 4
428 - 430 1:12:23 pm 28 60,000 0.5 $16,800 3
425 - 427 1:11:41 pm 28.5 876 0.5 $250 3
395 - 424 1:10:49 pm 28 579,649 0.5 $162,302 30
394 1:02:20 pm 27.5 50,000 0.5 $13,750 1
388 - 393 1:01:59 pm 28 448,115 0.5 $125,472 6
377 - 387 1:01:56 pm 27.5 180,000 0.5 $49,500 11
364 - 376 12:58:45 pm 28 131,158 0.5 $36,724 13
362 - 363 12:53:45 pm 28.5 1,177 0.5 $335 2
337 - 361 12:53:19 pm 28 933,190 0.5 $261,293 25
334 - 336 12:49:57 pm 27.5 147,619 0.5 $40,595 3
330 - 333 12:48:28 pm 27 100,000 0.5 $27,000 4
326 - 329 12:47:45 pm 27.5 2,381 0.5 $655 4
323 - 325 12:45:38 pm 27 84,204 0.5 $22,735 3
320 - 322 12:45:38 pm 27.5 15,796 0.5 $4,344 3
299 - 319 12:44:44 pm 28 422,213 0.5 $118,220 21
297 - 298 12:41:40 pm 28.5 558 0.5 $159 2
290 - 296 12:41:13 pm 28 150,000 0.5 $42,000 7
289 12:38:47 pm 28.5 227 0.5 $65 1
280 - 288 12:38:40 pm 28 225,000 0.5 $63,000 9
278 - 279 12:37:05 pm 28.5 49,723 0.5 $14,171 2
269 - 277 12:37:05 pm 28 185,655 1 $51,983 9
268 12:35:20 pm 27 33,000 1 $8,910 1
258 - 267 12:35:11 pm 28 441,070 2 $123,500 10
257 12:30:05 pm 26 17,263 1 $4,488 1
256 12:30:05 pm 27 15,000 0.5 $4,050 1
255 12:30:05 pm 27.5 1,070 0.5 $294 1
248 - 254 12:29:40 pm 28 133,000 0.5 $37,240 7
244 - 247 12:26:46 pm 28.5 3,395 0.5 $968 4
241 - 243 12:25:27 pm 28 182,679 0.5 $51,150 3
236 - 240 12:25:27 pm 27.5 13,414 0.5 $3,689 5
228 - 235 12:20:42 pm 28 55,148 1 $15,441 8
227 12:16:59 pm 29 628 1 $182 1
226 12:16:41 pm 28 100,000 0.5 $28,000 1
225 12:16:41 pm 27.5 49,473 1.5 $13,605 1
224 12:16:20 pm 26 4,114 0.5 $1,070 1
222 - 223 12:16:20 pm 26.5 886 1.5 $235 2
218 - 221 12:15:17 pm 28 150,000 0.5 $42,000 4
217 12:14:31 pm 28.5 527 0.5 $150 1
209 - 216 12:14:23 pm 28 197,000 0.5 $55,160 8
207 - 208 12:11:43 pm 28.5 4,997 0.5 $1,424 2
200 - 206 12:11:03 pm 28 337,500 0.5 $94,500 7
195 - 199 12:09:23 pm 27.5 100,000 0.5 $27,500 5
188 - 194 12:06:21 pm 28 190,000 2 $53,200 7
187 12:02:31 pm 30 6,500,000 2 $1,950,000 1
186 12:01:53 pm 28 100,000 0.5 $28,000 1
185 12:01:33 pm 28.5 20,517 2.5 $5,847 1
183 - 184 12:01:33 pm 26 250,000 1 $65,000 2
178 - 182 12:01:33 pm 25 343,000 0.5 $85,750 5
177 12:01:33 pm 24.5 100,000 0.5 $24,500 1
175 - 176 12:01:33 pm 24 120,000 0.5 $28,800 2
173 - 174 12:01:33 pm 23.5 200,000 0.5 $47,000 2
171 - 172 12:01:33 pm 23 50,869 0.5 $11,700 2
168 - 170 12:01:33 pm 22.5 209,387 0.5 $47,112 3
93 - 167 12:01:33 pm 22 561,169 0.5 $123,457 75
92 11:05:33 am 21.5 556 0.5 $120 1
82 - 91 11:05:32 am 22 5,898 0.5 $1,298 10
78 - 81 10:58:07 am 21.5 125,000 0.5 $26,875 4
59 - 77 10:56:25 am 22 26,663 0.5 $5,866 19
54 - 58 10:42:23 am 21.5 100,000 0.5 $21,500 5
49 - 53 10:40:59 am 22 3,396 0.5 $747 5
15 - 48 10:35:43 am 21.5 526,854 0.5 $113,274 34
1 - 14 10:08:34 am 21 659,104 $138,412 14

That is one massive purchase for one person

[AMR]

Well done all shareholders especially the patient ones who had to hold through the crash. Is NZO coming back for them again? Someone found out about a plan to hand cash back to SHers? No harm in speculation I guess :)

Disc: Hold PPP (ok...no stock but holding a picture of PPP's tui facilities on my desktop somewhere) ;)

[Dr_Who]

Now.. if there is a material announcement, does that mean the people buying today and those that bought at 30 cents this morning has inside information that is not privy to the public?

Think about this carefully.

[boysy]

still no announcement by ppp on either the asx or nzx

[upside_umop]

No Dr,

Then you would say that chartists have access to privy information over price and volume information.

There is speculation, and on good grounds, given 20 million shares in Australia have been traded....and bought at what ever price is being offered. What more evidence other than a SSH notice do you need to show its someone accumulating a substantial holding???!!

[Dr_Who]

No Dr,

Then you would say that chartists have access to privy information over price and volume information.

There is speculation, and on good grounds, given 20 million shares in Australia have been traded....and bought at what ever price is being offered. What more evidence other than a SSH notice do you need to show its someone accumulating a substantial holding???!!

6.5 million shares crossed at 30 cents at 12.02 pm!! A crossing of that size done at over 40% premium to the closing price on Friday! I can bet you it is probably the same people that mopped up all the stocks all the way to 30 cents.

[boysy]

ppps responce to sp change


http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00913503

basically saying ppp have no idea why price has changed so suddenly

[digger]

Maybe it is just Tattersfield adding to his holding now that the latest TUI upgrade has been announced.The upgrade is the Clayton sort where you have a upgrade by not having an upgrade but remove from the field a large area no longer needed so that the 2PP stays the same.
Digger

[digger]

There you have it.A responce from the stock ex says no one knows anything. Still think it is just a grosly undervalued stock catching up,which is good news as the takeover is still to come.

[Dr_Who]

Maybe it is just Tattersfield adding to his holding now that the latest TUI upgrade has been announced.The upgrade is the Clayton sort where you have a upgrade by not having an upgrade but remove from the field a large area no longer needed so that the 2PP stays the same.
Digger

I dont think thats him adding. He has been buying on the back foot, slowing accumulating stock on price weakness. Nobody goes into a market paying more than 40% premium for stock unless they know something or covering short position. I dont think anyone is stupid enough to short this stock of this quantity, so I would assume it is someone who is getting set for a positive announcement.

[upside_umop]

6.5 million shares crossed at 30 cents at 12.02 pm!! A crossing of that size done at over 40% premium to the closing price on Friday! I can bet you it is probably the same people that mopped up all the stocks all the way to 30 cents.

There is no inside information. It is known there is cash backing to the tune of 28 AU...someone is making a play and Tui is the bonus. Its still a bargin at 28 cents, but in this market its very good. I'm sure the directors could give greater value to the share holders than 28 cents...

As for the 6 million shares crossing...easy, the buyer contacted a major shareholder or two and found one that was willing to cross the shares at that price which set the price.

[boysy]

ended at 29.5 on the asx do people think the buying will continue tomoro ?

some 29 odd million shares changed hands today or around 5 % of the shares in ppp.

[macduffy]

ended at 29.5 on the asx do people think the buying will continue tomoro ?

some 29 odd million shares changed hands today or around 5 % of the shares in ppp.

I've no idea, boysy, but a 46% increase in the SP today is the best news I've had in the market for many a day!
I don't see any reason to sell at this stage. If I didn't have enough I'd be following the old maxim of Buy the rumour, Sell the fact, at least until someone makes their position known. Meanwhile, the cash backing adds comfort to that strategy.

;)

[boysy]

sure does as does the fact that shares kept changing hands right up until the end of the trading day. I wonder if we will expect much movement tomoro as it looks as though selllers are starting to thin out both on the asx and nzx though who really knows.

[the machine]

was very happy this morning when saw hit au22c [at last a breakout from crawling along the bottom]

the defacto reserves position - deferring a production hole but still hold reserves is a big plus

the nzo announcement re possible drill and possible volume must have helped today

M

[tricha]

Originally Posted by Phaedrus http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=225185#post225185)
Tricha, let me give you a tip.

Before you embark, make sure the boat/plane/train/stock you are interested in is heading North. This simple, commonsense advice will save you a lot of money. Here are a just a few of many poignant examples of ill-timed travel arrangements :-

"If u wait to long, the train might has left the station and u r left kicking the wall". (OEL at 48 cents - now 29 cents)
a little later "wait for the news and u will be sitting at the station watching the clouds sail past".

"The ship is leaving the port without u" (PEM at $3.93, now 30 cents)

There is no point wasting time and money by jumping aboard anything that is not heading the way you want to go.

iS THAT RIGHT :confused: oH MIGHY ONE, u need to get back to fundamentals :rolleyes: and I can say this because I sold 100,000 shares today at 28 cents today, which I bought on a down trend at 18.5 cents.

Yeah I bought when they were trending down and I have a few hundred thousand left. Why do I have a few hundred thousand left.:confused:

Have a bloody good look at the fundamentals ;)

[boysy]

7.3 million shares already traded on the nzx or almost 4 times the volume of yesterday already something is definately up.

[Sharp737]

I wonder if it's a merger/take over coming or perhaps someone wants 51% for control of the company?

Sharp

[boysy]

its very interesting that 6.5 million lots of shares have traded on both the asx and nzx by international buyers might this mean something ?

[Dr_Who]

I wonder if it's a merger/take over coming or perhaps someone wants 51% for control of the company?

Sharp


I cant see a T/O with sp at AUD30. A possible merger, yes, but then the company did come out with an announcement they have no knowledge of any material information.

A buyer cannot buy more than 20% of the company without triggering a full T/O of PPP.

This is very bizzare whats happening with PPP.

[boysy]

very interesting i wonder what will happen on the asx things could be interesting today thats for sure

[Dr_Who]

If it wasnt for PPP the NZX would be so boring!

Thank God there is a ASX.

[the machine]

well its good to see the demand is still there today, allbeit with no increase in sp.

guess a lot of small shareholdings have been sold and removes a lot of depth on the sell side.

asx opens in an hour so we have to wait.

wonder when the 2009 tui drilling campaign will be detailed?

m

[boysy]

still plenty of sellers though wonder if turnover will be as big today as it was yesterday.

[Dr_Who]

1 million bid at 30 cents .. hahaha.. are they having us on or holding up the price? WTF is going on? :eek:

There must be a ssh announcement soon.

[the machine]

1 million bid at 30 cents .. hahaha.. are they having us on or holding up the price? WTF is going on? :eek:

There must be a ssh announcement soon.


trust is this on asx?

M

[boysy]

considering 6.5 million shares were sold on nzx this morning in one trade at $0.368 this is itself is over the 1 % change .

[macduffy]

I wonder if it's a merger/take over coming or perhaps someone wants 51% for control of the company?

Sharp

Given that the directors hold in excess of 20% of the capital it will be very difficult to get control of the company without their say-so.
My pick is that someone is building a stake preparatory to a "friendly" merger. Probably a scrip deal that will allow directors to retain their interest, if that's what they want.
Just IMO.

;)

[Tok3n]

Why would anyone want PPP though?, its other potential assets in WA is pretty pointless.

Unless someone like AWE is super confident about Tui extensions etc and the region in general.

[upside_umop]

This is interesting behaviour...down 3 so far..

[macduffy]

Why would anyone want PPP though?, its other potential assets in WA is pretty pointless.

Unless someone like AWE is super confident about Tui extensions etc and the region in general.

A scrip deal would give them all that lovely cash to play with!

;)

[Sharp737]

You could be right MacDuffy. And I remember the 'pub' talk mentioned on the forums ages ago with people saying that Tui was a 100m BBL field....now by looking the the prospects immediately beside/very close to Tui, I can see why. Of course, Joe Public has only found out about these 'prospects' in recent months...but those in the know would have known about them ages ago. A$150m at the time of the chairmans address and rapidly growing...not to mention bank interest....My goodness! PPP is a real cash cow.

Now if Tui is double what it is now, it blows out the window all the PPP and NOG graphs of future earnings etc doesn't it?

Sharp

[boysy]

why would anybody want them ?

cash A$150 mil +
TUI
TUI expansion
Hector
Maitland
Other permits

current market cap A$ 162 million



who wouldnt want them ppp aint burning through their cash they areactually adding to it even at these prices.

[macduffy]

In fact, the more I think about it, the more it looks like an AWE move. As with their takeover of ARQ, AWE would be increasing its ownership of assets that it knows something about. No-one knows more about the Tui field than AWE.

;)

[upside_umop]

Yeah, I would be willing to bet its a JV partner...either NZO or AWE, but more likely AWE...

The thing is, would they be friendly about it, or would they be hostile like it seems to be right now?

[upside_umop]

New CEO...hmmm Mr Tom Prudence.

APPOINTMENT OF NEW CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

Pan Pacific Petroleum NL advises that Mr Tom Prudence, who joined the company last
September as General Manager, Exploration & Production, has now been appointed as Chief
Executive Officer of the company.

Mr Tony Radford continues as Chairman of the Company, now in a non-executive capacity and
the remainder of the Board remains unchanged.

Belinda Flatters-Wright
Company Secretary

https://ost.asbbank.co.nz/images/spacer.gif

[Tok3n]

I wish new appointments of new CEO triggered price actions like yesterday on all stocks lol.

[soulman]

I wish new appointments of new CEO triggered price actions like yesterday on all stocks lol.

Well this CEO is called Mr Prudence. Maybe that have something to do with it. If it's Mr Reckless, then it's all downhill.
.

[Tok3n]

Well this CEO is called Mr Prudence. Maybe that have something to do with it. If it's Mr Reckless, then it's all downhill.
.

haha nice one.

But seriously, if there's no T/O or show of hand..back to low 20s we go till oil price recovers.

[neopole]

here is something interesting.....
a husband of a woman i know gave me a dvd of AWE 2 months ago,
it was an in house dvd given to staff and associates ..........
he works on the umaroa, and is rather excited about all the boat talk.
i have held PPP and NZO for years but he recons that i should dump them
and buy AWE.

i have no secrets or inside info, but the word of a man on the boat saying to grab AWE.

anything here to tie into the goings on regarding PPP?

i dont know....... but am a happy holder

[Corporate]

here is something interesting.....
a husband of a woman i know gave me a dvd of AWE 2 months ago,
it was an in house dvd given to staff and associates ..........
he works on the umaroa, and is rather excited about all the boat talk.
i have held PPP and NZO for years but he recons that i should dump them
and buy AWE.

i have no secrets or inside info, but the word of a man on the boat saying to grab AWE.

anything here to tie into the goings on regarding PPP?

i dont know....... but am a happy holder

Why though? Is it because another shareholder of AWE told him how good AWE was?

[upside_umop]

Neopole, if he was/is excited about Tui, then PPP would have been better would it not, given the leverage PPP has to Tui over AWE?

[digger]

here is something interesting.....
a husband of a woman i know gave me a dvd of AWE 2 months ago,
it was an in house dvd given to staff and associates ..........
he works on the umaroa, and is rather excited about all the boat talk.
i have held PPP and NZO for years but he recons that i should dump them
and buy AWE.

i have no secrets or inside info, but the word of a man on the boat saying to grab AWE.

anything here to tie into the goings on regarding PPP?

i dont know....... but am a happy holder

Sailers say a lot of mixed value things. Did Christopher Clumbus not have some problems with sailers believing if they went any further west they would fall off the world.And they got this info from a good and common source.
From the time that DVD was made PPP will double far sooner than AWE will
Digger

[the machine]

This is interesting behaviour...down 3 so far..

looking at todays moves, it appears that the big buyer from yesterday just went with the flow today - at least for most of the day.
along the way a lot of sellers were flushed out and the sp dropped.

what a great play for yesterdays buyer and expect they picked up a heap of shares without forcing price up.

then towards end of today they cleaned up on asx, leaving sp finish @ 30c.


what is also of significance is that none of the directors have issued any announcement - so that means they have not been sellers.

if awe are making the play, then look forward to sp climbing once clarified.

30c au will seem cheap

M

[bermuda]

looking at todays moves, it appears that the big buyer from yesterday just went with the flow today - at least for most of the day.
along the way a lot of sellers were flushed out and the sp dropped.

what a great play for yesterdays buyer and expect they picked up a heap of shares without forcing price up.

then towards end of today they cleaned up on asx, leaving sp finish @ 30c.


what is also of significance is that none of the directors have issued any announcement - so that means they have not been sellers.

if awe are making the play, then look forward to sp climbing once clarified.

30c au will seem cheap

M

The only reason NZO sold out of PPP before was because they need the cash urgently for Tui development and PRC demands.

I may be wrong but to me the aquisition of PPP by NZO would be a perfect match.

It has always been my pick. Somethings going on.

[the machine]

The only reason NZO sold out of PPP before was because they need the cash urgently for Tui development and PRC demands.

I may be wrong but to me the aquisition of PPP by NZO would be a perfect match.

It has always been my pick. Somethings going on.



TR moving out of CEO chair would fit into your thinking.

will know who the buyer is soon enough with disclosures.

M

[macduffy]

The only reason NZO sold out of PPP before was because they need the cash urgently for Tui development and PRC demands.

I may be wrong but to me the aquisition of PPP by NZO would be a perfect match.

It has always been my pick. Somethings going on.

I was under the impression that NZO had gifted ( not sold)their holding in PPP to NZO shareholders.
Could someone please clarify ?

[Sehnsucht888]

Good point, in 2002 the PPP holding was distrubuted to NOG holders.
https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=374195

I can't recall anything about its sale, although do recall commenting on it myself in past posts - but maybe that was just from taking something I read for granted.. Maybe someone else remembers better

[rotweiller]

Gifted is correct

[temptation]

Yes, In 2002 NOG gave me free of charge a PPP share for each NOG share that I held.

[upside_umop]

NZOG still retained and held about 10% of PPP leading upto tui, and sold it for around a $8 million gain.

If I remember right, its in the 2007 annual report of NZOG.

[macduffy]

Thanks, everyone!

:)

[digger]

I lived through it so remember it all except the exact dates and pro rata gifting.So we were all gifted some PPP on a percentage of our holding in NZO and later NZO sold the 10% balance including the options in PPP to A W Tattersfield holdings.End of story.
Digger

[upside_umop]

ITS NZOG!

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) has disclosed to the NZX and ASX that by the close of
trading on the ASX yesterday it had acquired 5.77% of the issued shares of Pan Pacific
Petroleum NL (PPP).

NZOG is seeking to acquire a strategic stake in PPP so as to increase its exposure to the
attractive producing Tui area oilfields in offshore Taranaki. The two companies are joint
venture partners in Tui; NZOG with a 12.5% stake and PPP with 10%.

The shareholding is being acquired at a premium to the recent market price of PPP. NZOG
Chief Executive David Salisbury said NZOG believes it is paying a fair and attractive
price to achieve a meaningful shareholding in PPP.

PPP is an Australian company and Australian Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB)
requirements restrict NZOG to a shareholding below 15% unless FIRB approval is received.

At this stage NZOG is focused on acquiring a strategic stake. In due course NZOG will
reassess its position to determine what, if any, further steps might be taken.

[Dr_Who]

"X" for xcellent! :):)

[bermuda]

The only reason NZO sold out of PPP before was because they need the cash urgently for Tui development and PRC demands.

I may be wrong but to me the aquisition of PPP by NZO would be a perfect match.

It has always been my pick. Somethings going on.

Well well well,
It finally happened. Stood out like a sore thumb. Well done to all PPP holders.

It makes me feel good. NZO making good decisions.

[Dr_Who]

Well well well,
It finally happened. Stood out like a sore thumb. Well done to all PPP holders.

It makes me feel good. NZO making good decisions.

Thanks

I may put some of that money into VPE on price weakness.

[the machine]

Well well well,
It finally happened. Stood out like a sore thumb. Well done to all PPP holders.

It makes me feel good. NZO making good decisions.


interesting shift by nzo as previously DS said they are not in the position of speculating with shareholders funds. mondays feel good announcement by nzo gave market a tui status of sorts and then they started buying.

as 5.77% is hardly a strategic stake, [compared to 15%] then expect nzo will be aquiring quite a few more shares.

the play also removes scope for other "raiders"



as a ppp shareholder it would be very handy if nzo kept on buying and price recovered to at least 40c au

M

[JBmurc]

interesting shift by nzo as previously DS said they are not in the position of speculating with shareholders funds. mondays feel good announcement by nzo gave market a tui status of sorts and then they started buying.

as 5.77% is hardly a strategic stake, [compared to 15%] then expect nzo will be aquiring quite a few more shares.

the play also removes scope for other "raiders"



as a ppp shareholder it would be very handy if nzo kept on buying and price recovered to at least 40c au

M


Could really be a stand-off between PPP sellers an NZO & other buyers Now we know who's buying up PPP -Sold all my NZO yesterday at 133 on close c it has lost alot of buyer depth today still got half of my PPP holding which NZO can have for 36c ASX

[upside_umop]

PPP is forecasting $200 million cash in the bank by 30 June.

At that rate, thats 34 cents cash backing per share.

So yes...I'd agree..36 cents is a fair price for me too. Plus there is the upside of Tui expansion.

I would have thought with a stable oil price around $60 (which it will return to in due course) and the drilling schedule...we would test 40 cents AU.

I'm only kicking myself for not going all in on PPP now..was pretty close two weeks ago when I sold half of my remaining holding...and on monday morning when I sold the rest! Still...with PPP making up 60% of my net worth (not much...im a student remember) I would be greedy to have wished for more...

[the machine]

how many more will nzo buy today - looks like taking a breather on nzx waiting for asx to open [35c nz is about same as 30c au so nzx only playing catch up so far today]



now we need awe to see the light and but a strategic stake in ppp as well then they can split the assets


awe can have gas and oil and other assets off WA and nzo can have tui [then we wake up]


expect ppp to add further to sp today

M

[the machine]

this should also put a floor under the ppp sp, locking in the gains up to say

30c au 35c nz

further large buying buy nzo will add to the sp

the impending drilling announcement for tui 2009 will add to the sp

will we see 40c au 47c nz this week?

M

[Corporate]

This is a definite vote for confidence in the Tui field by NZO. Guttered I didn't buy PPP when i had the chance. Well done holders!

[boysy]

Not just in tui but also its surrounding permits guess nzo has plenty of reason to be confident about the taranaki basin.

[macduffy]

how many more will nzo buy today - looks like taking a breather on nzx waiting for asx to open [35c nz is about same as 30c au so nzx only playing catch up so far today]



now we need awe to see the light and but a strategic stake in ppp as well then they can split the assets


awe can have gas and oil and other assets off WA and nzo can have tui [then we wake up]


expect ppp to add further to sp today

M

Except that Tui revenues are too important to AWE at this stage - and for the next few years - to give up at this stage.

[boysy]

a 5,000,000 share parcel changed hands @ A$0.30 is nzo still accumulating

[JBmurc]

PPP is forecasting $200 million cash in the bank by 30 June.

At that rate, thats 34 cents cash backing per share.

So yes...I'd agree..36 cents is a fair price for me too. Plus there is the upside of Tui expansion.

I would have thought with a stable oil price around $60 (which it will return to in due course) and the drilling schedule...we would test 40 cents AU.

I'm only kicking myself for not going all in on PPP now..was pretty close two weeks ago when I sold half of my remaining holding...and on monday morning when I sold the rest! Still...with PPP making up 60% of my net worth (not much...im a student remember) I would be greedy to have wished for more...

Yeah your not the only one ,I was planned on selling NZO nzx to then buy PPP asx for 20c but as I'd been very busy had no time would have had over 100k invested in PPP at 20c

So with the large volumes surely major holders are also selling out

[CAM]

So with the large volumes surely major holders are also selling out

In this market there is probably a few people locking in profits

[KentBrockman]

In this market there is probably a few people locking in profits

So with over 20 mil shares bought today after NZO's announcement, and only minor gains on NZX, and a fall on ASX, it looks like after NZO has filled their 15% this will go all the way back to low twenties.

[Dr_Who]

It woudl have been easier and faster if NZO stood in the market to buy 19.9% of PPP. Their order would have been filled up in a few hours.

[neopole]

if PPP goes back to the low 20s, NZO can then apply for aproval to go for 50% stake or takeover, at the reduced price.
in the meantime...................
cash is still pouring in into PPP coffers.
a no brainer really.
just a matter of time for seroius rewards.

[macduffy]

if PPP goes back to the low 20s, NZO can then apply for aproval to go for 50% stake or takeover, at the reduced price.
in the meantime...................
cash is still pouring in into PPP coffers.
a no brainer really.
just a matter of time for seroius rewards.

Not so sure about the "pouring in" bit just now. Tapis is down to under USD46 so although PPP is making good money it's hardly a bonanza at present.

Disc: Holding firm to PPP.

;)

[boysy]

directors still buying at these prices its good to see.

[tricha]

WELL, it's ASX listed right and I only hold OZ listed companies, bought in today, too much cash coming in at US $130 + for this quarter, Maitland ready to strike ? = 50 cents, otherwise I guess we will just boggie on the back of Tui.

And there is the added bonus of a takeover on this bargin basement price.
.................................................. ..................................................

Flogged of Sharescene ;)
PPP - Revised Valuation

Sunday June 22, 2008 by X (http://wacq.wordpress.com/author/waterstone/)

Updated for financial position as at 31st December 2007.







http://wacq.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/ppp-220608.pdf (http://wacq.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/ppp-220608.pdf)

TAPIS price assumptions revised upward
0.90 flat USD/AUD cross-rate used
Interest revenue and expense schedules added
Discount rate adjusted to 10% due to de-risking
8.00% cost of debt and 6.50% rate for cash used
Zero value attributed to Maitland and other projects
Cash retention (i.e. 0% dividend payout) policy assumed
Valuation: $0.358

P.S Bermuda likes it, thats a bonus:)

The patient have finally been rewarded and after all NZO's searching for that bargain, PPP is it.

Scenaro 1 - They will take out PPP, which means 35 - 40 cents a share.

Scenaro 2 - They sit on 15 - 19.9% and the price drifts a little.

So having sold a few off to cover my bets either way seems the way to go, dam, shame COE on the way up again towards their 30 cents a share cash booty.:rolleyes: otherwise I would been adding more. Another cashed up oil producing cow.;)

[the machine]

while 30c au may seem a lot now, just imagine what sp will be as nzo reach the 15% and in due course gain approval to aquire the entire company.

MD could buy aud$1m worth now and in a month tell us all that made a 100% gain at nzo's expense. and good on him if hedoes.

what will nzo's offer be once it comes?
1 nzo share and some cash for 2 ppp shares
au60c cash

since ppp already have a war chest then a cash offer is only net difference over what is in the bank.

M

[temptation]

Surely NZO aren't going to have a problem with the FIRB if they want to take a bigger slice than 15% in PPP, and they won't have a problem with the FIRB if they want to takeover PPP. This is not like BA wanting to merge with Qantas. PPP is a minor energy company whose major asset is in New Zealand.

If I was good mates with the guys on the PPP board with all those shares, and if I had agreed a deal to take over PPP at say 45c per share, then the first thing that I would do is start buying as many shares on the market as I could at as low a price as I could. I would keep on buying at 30c per share until the supply dried up, and then I would start buying at 32c per share, and I would keep mopping shares as cheaply as possible and moving my offer up when supply dried up, and as I got close to the price agreed with the big boys on the board, then I would launch my takeover bid.

[the machine]

Surely NZO aren't going to have a problem with the FIRB if they want to take a bigger slice than 15% in PPP, and they won't have a problem with the FIRB if they want to takeover PPP. This is not like BA wanting to merge with Qantas. PPP is a minor energy company whose major asset is in New Zealand.

If I was good mates with the guys on the PPP board with all those shares, and if I had agreed a deal to take over PPP at say 45c per share, then the first thing that I would do is start buying as many shares on the market as I could at as low a price as I could. I would keep on buying at 30c per share until the supply dried up, and then I would start buying at 32c per share, and I would keep mopping shares as cheaply as possible and moving my offer up when supply dried up, and as I got close to the price agreed with the big boys on the board, then I would launch my takeover bid.


ppp board could not make any deal like that without making a disclosurer
todays announcement by ppp re monthly financial updates and keeping TR at arms length indicates ppp efforts to be sqeakly clean re disclosures and avoiding any conflict of interest.

as regards the au 45c figure - that will be way to low
50 - 60c au required but if a spoiler comes in and grabs 10% then that means nzo cannot get their hands on the ppp cash - aud$150m equivalent.

a spoiler could see price blow out to 60-70c au

impending drilling announcements will add 10% to sp as well

M

[temptation]

My point is that NZO aren't going to stop buying shares at 30c and they won't stop when they get to 15% of the company. This is how a full blown takeover would start.

[Sehnsucht888]

As also posted on NZO thread, maybe its more suited for this one....

"NZOG would not say how much of Pan Pac it wanted to buy but said it would need Foreign Investment Review Board approval to buy more than 15 per cent ironic when Pan Pac's main assets are its 10 per cent stake in Tui and about $150 million in cash holdings from Tui profits.

NZOG has already applied for review board approval. To buy more than 19.9 per cent, NZOG would need to make a full takeover."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4796368a13.html


My concern is that if they don't go for a takeover, what is it going to do for liquidity of the share...

[boysy]

can someone do a valuation on ppp i mean honestly if they think nzo is worth $2 i wonder how much they think ppp is worth.

[macduffy]

can someone do a valuation on ppp i mean honestly if they think nzo is worth $2 i wonder how much they think ppp is worth.

Any "valuation" of PPP would be purely guesswork, IMO.
As well as the great unknown of the future PoO from time to time, there would need to be some estimate of the amount of recoverable oil still to come from Tui and the ongoing cost of production, plus other possible Tui area assets, plus a value put on PPP's Australian assets etc. Plus the AUD148m (equivalent) cash.
What we do know for sure is that the cash backing is currently about AUD25cps - subject to exchange rate fluctuations USD/AUD and NZD/AUD.

;)

[boysy]

NZOs stake up to 10.055 % they sure are buying at around A$0.30


now holding 59,187,000

[the machine]

the average trade in nzx so far today is about 500,000 shares, so some big sellers out there

M

[boysy]

i took some profit today you have to wonder what will happen when nzo stop buying will their be a panic rush to sell ?

[the machine]

i took some profit today you have to wonder what will happen when nzo stop buying will their be a panic rush to sell ?

expect ppp price will drop a tad

M

[boysy]

well with the numbers gone through today already and expecting that most of the sales are by nzo they must be nearing 14-15 % stake already.

[croesus]

Sold all mine....

[boysy]

me too hope i havnt jumpt the gun though i assume nzo might wait a while if the poo falls futher and try and geta better deal down the track

[Stranger_Danger]

I haven't sold a share

(a) Story still compelling
(b) Valuation still low
(c) The risk of a cash box is that nothing happens. Stuff is now happening.
(d) Weak holders getting out of the stock.

Sure, could definitely give up a few cents when NZO stop buying....or...as is often the case, the opposite of the generally accepted view could occur.

My only question is whether it is a good investment at todays price. I say yes.

[tricha]

while 30c au may seem a lot now, just imagine what sp will be as nzo reach the 15% and in due course gain approval to aquire the entire company.

MD could buy aud$1m worth now and in a month tell us all that made a 100% gain at nzo's expense. and good on him if hedoes.

what will nzo's offer be once it comes?
1 nzo share and some cash for 2 ppp shares
au60c cash

since ppp already have a war chest then a cash offer is only net difference over what is in the bank.

M

Unfortunately, the low oil price is killing the party.

A full take over will depend on PPP's directors willingness to sell. So interesting times ahead.

Up to 25 - 28 cents, NZO is only, really if u stop and think about it, paying only 3 to 5 cents a share in real terms for 3 million barrels of oil and futher upside.

At 3 cents to 5 cents its 18 million to 30 million, not much of NZO's war chest for the whole of PPP.
Depending on the future oil price, NZO are getting at least 2 million barrels of oil for nought.


I'm looking for a buy option for my sold PPP shares and theres only two that comes close.
Theres one sure thing I am certain about, the rest of my PPP are staying in the closet, 35 -40 cents in this market is a bonus to be held with both arms.

If PPP shares do go back down, I'm simply buying them back.

I SEE THIS AS A WIN\WIN SITUATION.:)

[Sideshow Bob]

Sold all mine....

Ditto - looking to buy back in once the price drifts off (hopefully). Still, 60%+ in 2 months can't be bad in the current environment!

[temptation]

Don't expect the price to drift for long.. NZO haven't finished yet..
Look at this from the point of view of the NZO board...
Assume that the NZO board believe;
1) There is still significant upside to Tui reserves
2) The POO will go back up (it doesn't matter what anyone else believes, this is probably what the NZO board believe).

NZO don't just want a strategic stake in PPP (a small company that doesn't pay dividends), they want PPP's 10% stake in Tui.

Having established their stake, NZO may let the PPP shareprice drift so that the remaining shareholders begin to regret not taking AU30c when it was on offer. But NZO will come back with a full takeover offer, and it will be better than AU30c (maybe AU30c + scrip which will effectively mean that NZO keep all their cash in the bank as the AU30c can be paid from PPP cash).

[boysy]

im looking to buy back in the near future the question is will nzo wait after aquiring a strategic stake and let the dust settle before launching a full take over bid ?

[macduffy]

it will be better than AU30c (maybe AU30c + scrip which will effectively mean that NZO keep all their cash in the bank as the AU30c can be paid from PPP cash). QUOTE.

Well not quite, but PPP had around 25c in cash at last count, depending on exchange rate fluctuations.

[tricha]

im looking to buy back in the near future the question is will nzo wait after aquiring a strategic stake and let the dust settle before launching a full take over bid ?

They will need to talk to the directors of PPP, probably already have.

So NZO will have to pay what the PPP directors ask for and the way they were buying in the middle of this bear market, leads me to believe they are not short of cash.

So in this case, the shareholders of PPP, that includes all of us are in the box seat. 35 - 40 cents coming our way, maybe. its a 50\50 call.

[temptation]

It's going to be better than au40c. I'm guessing maybe au30c + 1 NZO share per 8 PPP.

(discl: holding PPP and NZO)

[upside_umop]

Thats pretty ambitious temptation....

I see price drifting...once NZ get permission to buy more then they will up to 19.99% and stop buying.

Price will drift again..and an offer will come that will make the shareholders appreciate the offer. This will be around the back drop of low oil prices.

I'll probably buy back some...PPP was my first ever share purchase back in 2004, I'm feeling a little bit empty now.

[digger]

It's going to be better than au40c. I'm guessing maybe au30c + 1 NZO share per 8 PPP.

(discl: holding PPP and NZO)

Where did your maths ability come from.If we have 30AUS + one NZO share that come to about 1-38 AUS. Now if you exchange that for 8 ppp shares you have sold your PPP shares for something like 18 cents each. Can not see me or the directors or anyone else taking that up.What in fact did you mean?
Digger

[temptation]

Well, Current NZO price is AU$1.08.
$1.08/8 = 13.5c
30 + 13.5 = 43.5c
If we think back a few months before the market collapsed, the analysts were giving NZO a valuation around the $2 mark. Without going back to their numbers, I remember taking their valuation of Tui, and adding the PPP cash at the time and calculating that the value of PPP at the time should be about 55c.

Of course, since then the POO has collapsed, and so the current value of Tui, NZO, and PPP is not what it was - but there is cash in the bank. Anyway, I think au43.5c would be very tempting to those PPP directors.

Digger, I do agree that the directors may well prefer a more heavily weighted scrip offer that would keep the cash in the bank and enable more acquisitions.

[Hoop]

Speaking about cash in the bank...I wonder is the PPP management are smart enough to lessen their exposure to the US$. It kinda looks overvalued and is in a correction as we speak...As the PPP valuation is in AU$........


Disc: Applied the Zurich Axiom on greed and sold the lot


On Greed
Always take your profit too soon
* Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out

[boysy]

though thankfully ppp did limit their us exposure a short time ago. Buts as you said their cash held is now around the A$147 million mark or A$0.25 cash backing per share.

[digger]

Well, Current NZO price is AU$1.08.
$1.08/8 = 13.5c
30 + 13.5 = 43.5c
If we think back a few months before the market collapsed, the analysts were giving NZO a valuation around the $2 mark. Without going back to their numbers, I remember taking their valuation of Tui, and adding the PPP cash at the time and calculating that the value of PPP at the time should be about 55c.

Of course, since then the POO has collapsed, and so the current value of Tui, NZO, and PPP is not what it was - but there is cash in the bank. Anyway, I think au43.5c would be very tempting to those PPP directors.

Digger, I do agree that the directors may well prefer a more heavily weighted scrip offer that would keep the cash in the bank and enable more acquisitions.
OK i see how you are doing it but in the first instance you did not say that.You said 30 cents + 1 NZO share equals 8PPP shares, now you are saying 8[30]+ 1 nzo shares=8ppp shares. Well that is better but if a takeover does happen[no quarantee] i see more advantages in an all scrip offer as it would leave the money in the bank for more acquasitions and thereby a positive feed back loop to further benefit the all scrip offer.
Point cleared up
Digger

[friedegg]

if you guys hold out for more than the au30cents you maybe sorry,but nzo has picked or been given a prime time to take you over
hold out for more and you will see ppp price suffer
take the profit now in these dark times and count yourself extremely lucky that theres someone who has money that will offer a premium on the normal trading price
greed is the biggest downfall of most!!

[the machine]

if you guys hold out for more than the au30cents you maybe sorry,but nzo has picked or been given a prime time to take you over
hold out for more and you will see ppp price suffer
take the profit now in these dark times and count yourself extremely lucky that theres someone who has money that will offer a premium on the normal trading price
greed is the biggest downfall of most!!



ppp will have more than 30c au equivalent by june 30, plus a couple of million barrels of oil, plus a tui drilling campaign plus earning a tidy interest on all that money in the bank.

if one was to sell out and take a substantial profit, what same level of risk could the funds be reinvested in?

think its amazing that nzo were looking to invest in some distressed bargains, from a company perspective, however they have gone one step further andpicked up baigains direct from the shareholders.

each to their own view, but to me ppp is still way undervalued at 30c au.

M

[tricha]

if you guys hold out for more than the au30cents you maybe sorry,but nzo has picked or been given a prime time to take you over
hold out for more and you will see ppp price suffer
take the profit now in these dark times and count yourself extremely lucky that theres someone who has money that will offer a premium on the normal trading price
greed is the biggest downfall of most!!

Friedeg I have to agree with Machine here, they are trying to pick up PPP for nought, actually u sound like, someone from NZO who want to take candy off a baby.

PPP with their $150,000,000 do not need anyone! They are the most cashed per share of anyone on the ASX/ :p

If PPP goes down it is a wonderful time to buy more ;) but u better be quick, the directors will beat u 2 it :rolleyes:

P.S That was last week at 20.5 cents,yeah!

[the machine]

another 1%+ traded so far today - who has been buying them?

certainly not nzo as they have reached their limited pending any approval to go beyond 15%.

would be nice if AWE have started buying, that would be a really good xmas present.

M

ps, as would ppp buying a stragegic stake in nzo and awe

[boysy]

wont a ssh have to be issued some time today ?

[the machine]

wont a ssh have to be issued some time today ?

nzo bought their max on friday and issued ssh to that effect on asx this morning

[unless they have approval to go beyond 15% - which doubt if would have approval yet]

so whoever has been buying today - unless is a director, does not have to say anything


M

[Phaedrus]

How did u like my PPP trade, buying all the way down to 18.5 cents?

Good work, but unfortunately you have learned the wrong thing from this success. You have "learned" that it is a good idea to buy into downtrending stocks. It isn't. You would have done much better delaying your entry until PPP began to show some sign of strength. See your initial entry way back in June? That was hard on the heels of a slew of SELL signals. Back then, we didn't know when to buy, but technically, it was painfully obvious that that was NOT the time to invest in PPP.

The red dots on the chart below mark Tricha's entry points into PPP, giving an average of about 22.7 cents. The green diamonds mark TA derived entry points, giving an average entry price of about 20.7 cents.


PPP is a great example of a takeover and how the price can get away on you.
Not so. The uptrend didn't take off until some 6 weeks after the TA buy signals began triggering. There was plenty of time to buy.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/PPP1222.gif

[tricha]

The "Mighty One " - Not so. The uptrend didn't take off until some 6 weeks after the TA buy signals began triggering. There was plenty of time to buy.

When you can predict something before it happens, let us know in advance please.
You are so far behind its not funny :(

[Ketel One]

From http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20081223/pdf/31fbll1vr49ql3.pdf: "New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (NZOG) now awaiting Australian Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) Approval
…While FIRB approval is being sought NZOG has no current intention to purchase PPP shares beyond the present level..."


This might be a bit of a newbie question sorry, but why would they apply for approval if they have no intention of purchasing?

[temptation]

Hi Ketel One,
The implication is that NZO will continue purchasing when approval has been granted.

[Ketel One]

Hi Ketel One,
The implication is that NZO will continue purchasing when approval has been granted.

Ah, right, you're correct. I read that incorrectly as "We're applying for FIRB approval, but we don't plan to buy any more full stop." Whereas they actually mean "We're applying for FIRB approval, and we don't plan on buying anymore until we get it."

Stupid brain!

[tricha]

Ah, right, you're correct. I read that incorrectly as "We're applying for FIRB approval, but we don't plan to buy any more full stop." Whereas they actually mean "We're applying for FIRB approval, and we don't plan on buying anymore until we get it."

Stupid brain!

Still cheap and NZO will need more than 30 cents to buy the rest I own, lol.

That 25 cents a share cash in the bank is still increasing as I write, not as cheap as 18.5 cents, but still relatively cheap on fundamentals. ;)

[macduffy]

Still cheap and NZO will need more than 30 cents to buy the rest I own, lol.

That 25 cents a share cash in the bank is still increasing as I write, not as cheap as 18.5 cents, but still relatively cheap on fundamentals. ;)

I don't always agree with you, tricha, but I do on this one!

Keep remembering that the highest price in a takeover situation is almost always the last one!

;)

[KentBrockman]

Still cheap and NZO will need more than 30 cents to buy the rest I own, lol.

That 25 cents a share cash in the bank is still increasing as I write, not as cheap as 18.5 cents, but still relatively cheap on fundamentals. ;)

Agree too. Right now, NZO can have mine for A$0.50; my asking price will increase by a couple of cents a month :)

[boysy]

to right just look at NZOs shareprice and how much TUI contributes to this and apply this to PPP. The stake in TUI that ppp hold isnt represented by the current shareprice end of story add to that the fact that ppp have $0.25 per share cash in the bank. I cant wait to see a valuation on ppp and what they percieve its real worth at. still screaming a buy at these prices.

and yes i am accumulating so this is just a tad biased

[boysy]

vey interesting particulary the end of the release
STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT


29 December, 2008


Board Appointments

On 23rd December 2008, New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (NZOG) announced that it held a
relevant interest in 15.436% of the issued share capital of Pan Pacific Petroleum NL (PPP
or the Company) and that it had applied for Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB)
approval, required for a shareholding of 15% or greater. NZOG stated that “while FIRB
approval is being sought, NZOG has no current intention to purchase PPP shares beyond the
present level�. NZOG also announced that “the NZOG Board currently considers it
appropriate that Mr Radford participate in any further Board consideration in PPP�. Mr
Radford is a Director of PPP as well as being Chairman of NZOG.

On 26th December, 2008, Mr Radford resigned as Chairman of PPP following which the Board
has appointed Mr Neil Tomkinson as Chairman.

The Board of PPP announced recently that it had formalised a process aimed at managing
any potential conflict issues relating to Mr Radford’s then current Director and Chairman
roles of both PPP and NZOG. This process will now be reviewed in the light of Mr
Radford’s decision to step down as Chairman and to participate in ongoing NZOG board
discussions regarding PPP.

Reflecting the changes which have recently occurred in the shareholding and management of
the Company, the Board members other than Mr Radford have moved to strengthen the make up
of the PPP Board by the appointment of two additional experienced Directors, Mr Michael
Daniel, a well known New Zealand company director, and Mr Joshua Pitt, an experienced
Australian corporate investor and director. These new appointments will better enable the
Company to address the current situation following NZOG’s announced intention to obtain a
“strategic stake� in PPP and � to invite Mr Radford to participate in any further NZOG
board consideration in PPP� as well as to deal with other matters which may arise.

Michael Walter Daniel, B.Com.Ec, is the Chairman of New Zealand listed Northland Port
Corporation (NZ) Ltd and Northport Ltd and a director of each of NPC Corporate Services
Ltd, and NorthPort Coolstores (1989) Ltd each NZ companies. Mr Daniel was a former
stockbroker and merchant banker and has held previous directorships with GSB Supply Corp
Ltd, GSB Supply Vehicles Ltd, Force Corporation Ltd, Northland Health Limited, Northpower
Ltd, Sky City Leisure Ltd, Professional Service Brokers Ltd and was a Chairman of Elders
Northstock Ltd.

Joshua Norman Pitt, BSc, MAusIMM, MAIG, is a geologist with extensive exploration
experience who has for more than thirty years been a director of exploration and mining
companies in Australia. He has had a successful career in the provision of seed capital
for and the management of listed exploration and mining companies including Aztec
Exploration Limited, Golden Grove Mining NL, Forrestania Gold NL and Dalrymple Resources
NL. Mr Pitt is currently a non-executive director of Hampton Hill Mining NL, Traka
Resources Limited, Red Hill Iron Limited and Red Metal Limited and was formerly a
non-executive director of LionOre Mining International Limited. Mr Pitt is also involved
in substantial private resource investment in Australia.

PPP has appointed Origin Securities Pty Limited to assist with an assessment of PPP’s
assets and in the formulation of a strategy to maximise value for shareholders so that
PPP is fully prepared if a bid or any other proposal for its issued capital eventuates
from whatever source. Additionally, Allens Arthur Robinson has been appointed as legal
adviser.

Shareholders should note that NZOG has acquired its interest in PPP shares at prices up
to 30 cents per share, not significantly higher than PPP’s cash backing per share of 25
cents (based on net cash at 30 November 2008 of A$148 million).

In the absence of a significant acquisition, PPP’s net cash holdings will continue to
increase in the financial year to 30 June 2009, and hence current market trading prices
place negligible value on the Company’s most significant asset, its 10% interest in The
Tui Area Oil Fields. Remaining reserves net to PPP at 30 November 2008 comprised 3.1
MMbbls.

PPP remains committed to its growth strategy, and is continuing to progress attractive
opportunities currently in hand.

The Company will continue to keep shareholders fully informed on what is currently a
fluid situation and as envisaged will continue to issue on a monthly basis, statements
detailing PPP’s cash position.

Belinda Flatters-Wright
Company Secretary

[KentBrockman]

vey interesting particulary the end of the release


This seems an excellent announcement. Looks like Tomkinson isn't willing to let PPP go on the cheap.

I think NZO may have made a mistake. It might have been better for them to obtain FIRB approval first and then make an outright offer out of the blue. Would have got them more than the 15% they got now at a cheap price, and they could have then increased the offer in the end to mop up the remaining shares.

Now they are sitting on essentially useless 15 %, as they don't have access to decision making and the cash and will have to make a substantial offer to get the other 85%.

Meanwhile, cash at hand will continue to increase and 2009 drilling may increase reserves, making PPP more valuable.

I like it!

[boysy]

i think either way nzo realise the value of ppp particulary tui and its potential further development. looks as though nzo will have to pay substantially more than A$0.30 to mop up the rest. so the firb have a month to get back to nzo could be an interesting few weeks thats for sure.

[the machine]

i think either way nzo realise the value of ppp particulary tui and its potential further development. looks as though nzo will have to pay substantially more than A$0.30 to mop up the rest. so the firb have a month to get back to nzo could be an interesting few weeks thats for sure.


back from a weeks holiday and ppp now seem to be constructing some more formal type of defence to a takeover [or at least a cheap takeover]

found this info on firb website = 30 days plus 10 days to notify as basic responce level

being holiday season then one can expect an interim order may come into play, but given size of ppp and the application is from nz, then doubt if any extention would go beyond of feb


Printable version

Statutory Notices
Most applications will require the submission of a statutory notice. The notices comprise either a S26, S26A or S25 Notice.

For any acquisition that is notifiable under Section 26A of the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act 1975, the submission of a Section 26A Notice is required. Section 26A makes it compulsory for a foreign interest to notify a proposal to acquire an interest in Australian urban land. The section does not apply if the proposed acquisition is exempt under the Foreign Acquisitions & Takeovers Regulations.

For any acquisition that is notifiable under Section 26 of the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act 1975, the submission of a Section 26 Notice is required. Section 26 makes it compulsory for a foreign interest to notify a proposal to acquire, or increase, a substantial shareholding (that is, 15 per cent or more) of an Australian corporation, unless the total assets are below the applicable threshold.

There are substantial penalties for non-compliance with the notification provisions of sections 26 and 26A.

For any acquisition that is notifiable under Section 25 of the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act 1975, a Section 25 Notice should be submitted. Section 25 provides for the notification of other proposals that come within the scope of the Act but which are not subject to compulsory notification (for example, off-shore takeovers, takeovers of businesses by purchase of assets, or acquisitions of shares in Australian companies that are less than a substantial shareholding).

Formal notification of a proposal under sections 25, 26 or 26A (that is, in accordance with the forms prescribed in the Foreign Takeovers (Notices) Regulations) activates a time clock and, if the Treasurer does not take action within 30 days and notify the parties of this action within a further 10 days, the Treasurer loses the ability to either prohibit the proposal or to impose conditions. The normal 30 day examination period may be extended by up to a further 90 days by the issue of an interim order (sections 22 and 25(3)).

Notice
Section 26A 28KB 232KB
Section 26 29KB 81KB
Section 25 53KB 406KB


M

[Crypto Crude]

yup, something had to be brewing...
glad I changed my thoughts on the company...
Im not overly excited about NZO's move though....
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

yup, something had to be brewing...
glad I changed my thoughts on the company...
Im not overly excited about NZO's move though....
:cool:
.^sc

A very smart move up to now by NZO Shrewdy, they pick up 15% of PPP for zip ( cash backing ) and the rest is free.

But the next part of this game, PPP directors are not going down without a fight, my guess is Mr R will do a backroom deal.

Forty Cents :D

[boysy]

can we read alot into the announcement from the 29th of december ? ive cut and pasted the most important pieces of the announcement. It sounds as if ppp are more than confident of recieving a t/o offer in the coming weeks.

"PPP has appointed Origin Securities Pty Limited to assist with an assessment of PPP’s assets and in the formulation of a strategy to maximise value for shareholders so that PPP is fully prepared if a bid or any other proposal for its issued capital eventuates from whatever source. Additionally, Allens Arthur Robinson has been appointed as legal advise"

it seems like ppp is expecting a bit of action and is actively seeking to maximise shareholder value ?

"Shareholders should note that NZOG has acquired its interest in PPP shares at prices up to 30 cents per share, not significantly higher than PPP’s cash backing per share of 25 cents (based on net cash at 30 November 2008 of A$148 million)."

nzo arnt paying much more than the cash backing yet .


"In the absence of a significant acquisition, PPP’s net cash holdings will continue to increase in the financial year to 30 June 2009, and hence current market trading prices place negligible value on the Company’s most significant asset, its 10% interest in The Tui Area Oil Fields. Remaining reserves net to PPP at 30 November 2008 comprised 3.1 MMbbls."

the current shareprice doesnt reflect the true value of ppps assets ?

[the machine]

can we read alot into the announcement from the 29th of december ? ive cut and pasted the most important pieces of the announcement. It sounds as if ppp are more than confident of recieving a t/o offer in the coming weeks.

"PPP has appointed Origin Securities Pty Limited to assist with an assessment of PPP’s assets and in the formulation of a strategy to maximise value for shareholders so that PPP is fully prepared if a bid or any other proposal for its issued capital eventuates from whatever source. Additionally, Allens Arthur Robinson has been appointed as legal advise"

it seems like ppp is expecting a bit of action and is actively seeking to maximise shareholder value ?

"Shareholders should note that NZOG has acquired its interest in PPP shares at prices up to 30 cents per share, not significantly higher than PPP’s cash backing per share of 25 cents (based on net cash at 30 November 2008 of A$148 million)."

nzo arnt paying much more than the cash backing yet .


"In the absence of a significant acquisition, PPP’s net cash holdings will continue to increase in the financial year to 30 June 2009, and hence current market trading prices place negligible value on the Company’s most significant asset, its 10% interest in The Tui Area Oil Fields. Remaining reserves net to PPP at 30 November 2008 comprised 3.1 MMbbls."

the current shareprice doesnt reflect the true value of ppps assets ?



expect ppp sp to take off once further takeover action eventuates.

another player could see sp reach 60c au quicksmart, which would do wonders for my own portfolio.

but alas to late for 2008 sharetipping competitions



all the best for 2009

M

[the machine]

good to see the new direcot having an approx 1% interest in ppp

M

[fabs]

T.r. & A.t & Nog All Hold Direct Or Indirect More Than 11% Respectively.
So No Chance Of A T/o By Any Of Them Seperatly Let Alone Collective, Even Less An Outsider.
All Of These Well Known For Wanting Things As Cheap As, So Where To Now?
Is It Going To Be A Case Of Avery Man Has It,s Price Or A Stale- Mate

[tricha]

its 10% interest in The Tui Area Oil Fields. Remaining reserves net to PPP at 30 November 2008 comprised 3.1 MMbbls."

the current shareprice doesnt reflect the true value of ppps assets ?[/quote]

So true, PPP is stilll under valued to the max.

Watch this space .............................

[shasta]

its 10% interest in The Tui Area Oil Fields. Remaining reserves net to PPP at 30 November 2008 comprised 3.1 MMbbls."

the current shareprice doesnt reflect the true value of ppps assets ?

So true, PPP is stilll under valued to the max.

Watch this space .............................[/quote]

Tricha

Underdog started a thread with companies trading below cash backing etc...

Yes, PPP is undervalued, but no one including NZO is going to pay more than $1 for $1 no matter how much cash they have...

The 10% of Tui is worth something, as the JV partners seek to explore around the tui permit during 2009.

Ultimately PPP have to do something with the cash, or else they will get picked off on the cheap & a predator will use the PPP cash to self fund the deal!

Perhaps PPP should buy some NZO & gain exposure to Kupe that way & muddy the waters somewhat?

NXS & AZA did this, & ultimately ROC got AZA, when NXS needed the cash

[tricha]

So true, PPP is stilll under valued to the max.

Watch this space .............................

Tricha

Underdog started a thread with companies trading below cash backing etc...

Yes, PPP is undervalued, but no one including NZO is going to pay more than $1 for $1 no matter how much cash they have...

The 10% of Tui is worth something, as the JV partners seek to explore around the tui permit during 2009.

Ultimately PPP have to do something with the cash, or else they will get picked off on the cheap & a predator will use the PPP cash to self fund the deal!

Perhaps PPP should buy some NZO & gain exposure to Kupe that way & muddy the waters somewhat?

NXS & AZA did this, & ultimately ROC got AZA, when NXS needed the cash[/quote]

[KentBrockman]

Wouldn't it be interesting if the PPP price starts now creeping up, prior to NZO gaining FIRB approval?

One could almost imaging NZO management watching and biting their nails, as they full know that they have to add pretty much 30-40 % percent to the going SP, once it is past its intrinsic value (which I still maintain is around 50 cents).

[boysy]

interesting for holders of ppp no doubt. is their any reason whatso ever that nzo wouldnt gain firb approval or is it pritty much a given.

As stated above that nzo wouldnt have to pay $1 for $1 for ppps assets it has to be remembered that ppp dont have to sell as they have alot of cash in the bank and directors that control a significant stake of the company. nzo will have to pay at least what ppp is worth is they hope to t/o ppp i think we all understand this. I for one am looking in the $0.50 + range or a decent script offer as well as cash.

[boysy]

4 million volume on the nzx up to 35 a few big buyers wonder whats happening behind the scene

[Ketel One]

is their any reason whatso ever that nzo wouldnt gain firb approval or is it pritty much a given.
I'd be interested in the answer to this too, as I haven't really watched a situation like this in detail before.

What kinds of reasons might the FIRB have for not giving approval?

[the machine]

I'd be interested in the answer to this too, as I haven't really watched a situation like this in detail before.

What kinds of reasons might the FIRB have for not giving approval?


id say its a given approval - just has to follow due process and that takes time


as a guide, my reading of firb guidelines as regards property, is that anyone/company from nz has auotomatic approval to aquire propery in australia with no limit.


would expect ppp to issue a monthly update along with quarterly report at the same time as all finances should be the same - mid january.
this is same time frame when the intitial 30 days after firb application made.

interesting times ahead

M

[the machine]

this announcement by santos might help realise some of the stranded gas assets like corvus

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00918077

M

[the machine]

ppp finished at 30c au today - goes to show that nzo bought the 14.85% very cheap

M

[tricha]

ppp finished at 30c au today - goes to show that nzo bought the 14.85% very cheap

M

I have probably posted this before, after all NZO' searching for opportunities, Tui is it and they want PPP's share as WELL. :D

Watch out for a bigger Fish to come along and devour NZO.

Have a very good look at the Picture which I couldn't seem to add ;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NZO&E=ASX&N=311333


media release 15 December 2008

NZOG ENCOURAGED BY EXPLORATION PROSPECTS

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) has welcomed the release of new acreage in the Northland and Raukumara Basins as it prepares for increasing exploration activity in the Canterbury and Taranaki Basins, including a drilling campaign near the Tui area oilfields in 2009.
The Government has released data on two offshore blocks in the unexplored Raukumara Basin off the North Island’s East Cape, and on four offshore blocks in Northland. The bidding round will close in January 2010.
NZOG Chief Executive David Salisbury says the company will carefully assess the new areas.
"It is good to have new areas opened up. We will carefully assess these to determine if a bid or bids are an attractive option for NZOG. But at the same time, we are already actively involved in and expanding exploration initiatives in Taranaki and Canterbury."
The specialist seismic vessel the Pacific Titan has just completed a seismic survey in the petroleum exploration permit (PEP) 38483 in the Taranaki Basin. NZOG has an 18.9% stake in PEP 38483. The other joint venture parties are AWE, Mitsui and Pan Pacific Petroleum. In 2007 the unsuccessful Hector well was drilled but NZOG believes there are a number of other worthwhile leads in the permit. The newly acquired data will be processed over the coming months.
In January 2009 the Pacific Titan is scheduled to shoot a seismic survey in PEP 38259 in the Canterbury Basin. NZOG recently agreed to take a 40% stake in this permit. The other parties are AWE, Beach Petroleum and ANZON.
In November NZOG submitted a 100% application for a newly released area that lies to the west and south of the Kupe field in Taranaki. NZOG is also involved in a joint application with its Tui partners – AWE, Mitsui and Pan Pacific Petroleum - for another offshore Taranaki area to the south of PEP38483.

Tui Drilling

Confirmation of a 2009 drilling campaign within the Tui permit PMP 38158 in Taranaki is expected shortly.
The Tui partners have agreed to defer a proposed additional development well in favour of further exploration. Given the continued performance of the field, the Operator AWE has advised that the proven and probable (2P) reserve estimate can remain at 50.1 million barrels, without the extra well.
There are five potentially attractive prospects near to the three existing producing reservoirs that comprise the Tui area oil fields (see attached map). In total, these five prospects contain aggregate unrisked prospective resources at a P50 level of over 50 million barrels of oil. (This is adding together the best current estimate of what each of the prospects might contain).

The Tui partners intend to use the Kan Tan IV for a Tui drilling campaign in 2009. However, no decision has yet been made by the Tui partners on which of the prospects will be targeted in that campaign. The Tui Operator AWE is understood to be in final negotiations to secure the drilling rig.
David Salisbury said NZOG is very positive about the potential additional value that can be extracted from the Tui area and for the general exploration prospects in New Zealand.
"New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd is considering a number of possible overseas investments and opportunities, but at the same time, we see good remaining prospectivity in New Zealand and we expect to remain an active player in the local exploration sector".
ENDS
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
Chris Roberts
Public Affairs Manager
Telephone: (04) 495 2424 Toll free 0800 000 594

NZOG stock symbols: NZX shares - NZO
ASX shares – NZO

[the machine]

tricia, if you have not already bought back the ppp shares you sold in dec [for a tidy profit] then you may findthe re entry price is higher than what you sold for, given ppp finished at 30c au today

M

[the machine]

Interesting from the photo that comes with this article that Kan Tan IV can be loaded onto a semi submersible ship and does not have to be towed - this will speed up any relocation from caribbean to aust/nz

now 3.5 weeks have passed since this article and still no tui drilling campaign.

one would expect significant developments still to come by jan 31 -
- tui 2009 drilling campagn
- nzo takeover offer
- ppp mount a big defence to highlight ppp value
- upbeat quarterly report [an upbeat report from ppp may be a first]

would be nice if ppp is 35c au by time nzo make offer - and that could be next week!!!

M




Tui may sign up Kan Tan IV for more wildcatsFiled from Singapore
12/15/2008 11:13:17 AM GMT





WELLINGTON: The joint venture for New Zealand's Tui oil project will soon firm up an exploration drilling programme to tap up to five prospects. Tui operator Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE) is in final negotiations to secure Maersk-managed semisubmersible Kan Tan IV for the 2009 campaign.



No decision has been made on the prospects that will be targeted in the campaign, according to Tui's joint venture partner, New Zealand Oil & Gas (NZOG). However, AWE is understood to have prosposed the drilling of at least two prospects, Hoki and Kahu, in the PMP 38158 and PEP 38401 permits.



Any commercial finds in the exploration wells are likely to be tied to Prosafe's floating production, storage and offloading vessel Umuroa, currently moored in the Tui oil field.



AWE operates the Tui with a 42.5 per cent stake. Partners include Mitsui E&P with 35 per cent, NZOG with 12.5 per cent and Pan Pacific Petroleum NL with 10 per cent.

[boysy]

Tui production hits 20 million barrels

The Tui area oil field in New Zealand’s offshore Taranaki basin reached another significant milestone today, with the production of the 20 millionth barrel of Tui oil.

The achievement comes less than eighteen months after production began on 30 July 2007.

The Tui area oil field includes three producing reservoirs, Tui, Amokura and Pateke and lies 50km off the Taranaki coast.

The Tui area oil field is operated by a joint venture comprising Pan Pacific Petroleum NL (10%), Australian Worldwide Exploration Limited (42.5% and Field Operator), Mitsui Ltd (35%), and New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (12.5%).

When the investment decision was taken by the joint venture, the proven and probable (2P) reserves were estimated to be 26.8 million barrels (MMbbls).

With the outstanding performance of the fields and the assessment of new information from the production process, this initial reserve figure has been upgraded several times and is currently 50.1 mmbbls.

With 20 MMbbls produced to date, remaining 2P reserves are approximately 30 MMbbls – meaning that the estimated amount of recoverable oil remaining is still higher than the original total 2P reserve figure.

-2-

The oil is produced from four wells through a floating production, storage and offloading vessel (FPSO), the Umuroa. The facilities have performed exceedingly well. With the exception of a planned week long maintenance shutdown in mid-December, oil has been produced every day for more than 500 days, with an excellent safety record maintained.

The oil is shipped by tanker to refineries in Australia and south-east Asia. There have also been several shipments to Hawaii and this month the first shipment will go to Marsden Point near Whangarei in New Zealand.

[boysy]

ppp still doing very nicely in this sort of market . only oil stock thats up on my watchlist today i just hope that the firb ruling comes out quickly so the ball can get rolling .

[the machine]

see ppp hit 30.5 c au today, on reasonable volume before easing to 29.5 down half a cent at the end - all against backdrop of oil dropping overnight and markets down.

looks like some sort of accumulation going on.




as regards the 20m barrels announcement, ppp were a lot more upbeat than nzo, thus all part of defence [response] to a cheap takeover


M

[boysy]

so true the fact that ppp did hold up as well as it did today must bode well for the company. Also they must be liking their hedging right about now i wonder if they will clarify their postion in the next update from the company.

[the machine]

so true the fact that ppp did hold up as well as it did today must bode well for the company. Also they must be liking their hedging right about now i wonder if they will clarify their postion in the next update from the company.


would expect so.

timing for next update?

hopefully about 15th jan as part of responce to cheap takeover pitch by nzo


meanwhile ppp back up to 30c au today

M

[the machine]

ppp finished up 1c today - 30.5 au on a small volume

started up half a cent and finished up 1c.

highest closing price for along time

better to come next week

M

[KentBrockman]

ppp finished up 1c today - 30.5 au on a small volume

started up half a cent and finished up 1c.

highest closing price for along time

better to come next week

M

I reckon (or shall I say hope) we'll now make our way to 40c over the next few weeks, and
and then the offer will come for 30c plus 1 for 3 NZO/PPP.

I wouldn't sell for anything less.

[the machine]

I reckon (or shall I say hope) we'll now make our way to 40c over the next few weeks, and
and then the offer will come for 30c plus 1 for 3 NZO/PPP.

I wouldn't sell for anything less.

an offer like example would be nice and avoids having to pay excessive tax on profit.

translates to approx 40% cash [the 30c au] and balance in script.
also the cash is almost self funding out of ppp cash in bank.

ppp closing price today is highest since july 2007.

m

[KentBrockman]

an offer like example would be nice and avoids having to pay excessive tax on profit.

translates to approx 40% cash [the 30c au] and balance in script.
also the cash is almost self funding out of ppp cash in bank.



Exactly. Noone gets hurt, and all parties would (presumably) be happy :)

My guess however is that Radford will first try to pull a takeover on the cheap,
which will hopefully fail and just result in a drawn out battle, with NZO
ultimately having to pay even more.

[tricha]

Exactly. Noone gets hurt, and all parties would (presumably) be happy :)

My guess however is that Radford will first try to pull a takeover on the cheap,
which will hopefully fail and just result in a drawn out battle, with NZO
ultimately having to pay even more.

It does not get much better

- nearly cash equal to share price, still. :D

- 3 million barrels of oil to come, at least ;)

- Exporation upside potential at Tui, huge. :p

NZO better come up with at least 50 cents :cool:

Or they can go ....................... :eek:

[digger]

Exactly. Noone gets hurt, and all parties would (presumably) be happy :)

My guess however is that Radford will first try to pull a takeover on the cheap,
which will hopefully fail and just result in a drawn out battle, with NZO
ultimately having to pay even more.

Having a cheap T/O offer in the first instance is the way to go.A good 50% of the stock can still be aquired this way,as the semi weak holders [the weak have already sold out] will take there profit now rather than risk that no further offer will ever come.Sure the last holders will get more but then if that does happen they also took the gamble that a full and complete T/O would be presued to the end.So the best way forward for NZO is to continue getting stock as cheaply as possible is the two stage T/O
I have bought more and will wait until the directors sell.

[KentBrockman]

Having a cheap T/O offer in the first instance is the way to go..

Not necessarily. Have a look at Cooper's recent clumsy attempt to do a cheap takeover of Incremental.

They gained about a quarter of the shares from weak hands, and it then elicited a counter offer from a third party (also on the cheap, but slightly higher than Cooper's), which subsequently netted the third party about a quarter of IPM too.

Incremental management advised holders to accept neither offer.

Now, both suitors own a quarter of Incremental each, both having failed with their offer.

No one has access to IPM's cash flow (just like in PPP's case the main draw card) and no control.

Stalemate for both, and significant resources tied up with no immediate return.

NZO better study this example carefully. (especially since in the IPM case it also appears that Management actually lined the second takeover bid up, just like I think may be considered by PPP management in case of a ridiculous NZO offer)

[macduffy]

Yes, food for thought there.

I wonder how close or otherwise is TR to the PPP directors?

[boysy]

well hopefully all will be revealed or start to this week are we expecting fibr announcement sometime this coming week or the week after. am holding tightly onto ppp as others have stated the best offer is often the last though im sure many punters would take profit if a relatively low t/o offer was announced.

[temptation]

As I understand it, the board has a number of substantial shareholders plus the new guys who were brought on board to help with any takeover/merger negotiations. I'll be holding onto my shares and following the boards recommendations.

[the machine]

any t/o has to be a knockout blow first up - to avoid risk of stalemate which neither party will want.


once firb approval then expect nzo to move quickly to 19.99 inclusive of esop, before making the offer.

min 80c au equivelent is my thinking - min 20c au cash and script.

the cash component to use about half to 2/3 of ppp cash

once ppp reaches 32c au then my own portfolio is back to where it was in dec 2007

M

[upside_umop]

I love it how digger calls us weak for pulling out!

Digger...its a win/lose situation for you. You own more in NZOG proportionately, a lot more, so its in your best interests to have a low ball take over. You'll win on PPP but lose on NZOG and the loss on NZOG will be greater than PPP gain.

80 cents? Come off it...thats valuing tui at over 300 million dollars! Maitland is a small fish and has come off the boil a bit...

Oil in the ground at current prices, excluding operation costs, time value of money, etc etc is 3,000,000 * 40/.7 = $170 million

I was out at 30 cents AU and 35 cents NZD. I still believe I will be able to buy back in cheaper...although things may have changed slightly with their consulting services they are receiving to maximize shareholder wealth.

Im not speculating on t/o price, but 80 cents you'll be waiting a wee while IMO. If NZO were to pay $470m AUD...there would be no cash in the kitty and a declining oil field. Sound like a good deal for NZO? Radford? No...

[tricha]

As I understand it, the board has a number of substantial shareholders plus the new guys who were brought on board to help with any takeover/merger negotiations. I'll be holding onto my shares and following the boards recommendations.

Thats exactly it, NZO get nothing without an agreement from the PPP board, I'm sure TR is WELL on top of this and they have already raised the glass.
But even if they settle on 40 cents, in this market its a huge gain to us, huge and I have already bought some dirt cheap NZO shares back with some of my PPP profit. So now I have a foot in NZO and still have a leg in PPP.

CASH is King either in the bank or a Cash Cow.

[soletrader]

Some thoughts from the UK.

Eight or nine years ago Tui used to be mapped as one big structure, probably the largest of the four main structures which at the time were in PEP 38460. After the initial Tui discovery in February 2003, 3D seismic was aquired over 350 km2 of the Tui area during April/May 2003, and in the light of this, mapping of the area became more sophisticated and the orginal Tui was broken down into it's composite parts. But of some reason best known to our directors, or the joint venture partners in general, most of the original Tui structure dropped off the published maps for three or four years, with the exception of the three discoveries to date, i.e. Tui, Amokura and Pateke.

But the other immediately adjacent structures are still there as we can see from the 2008 Annual Report, i.e.Tui SW, Tui SE, Tui NE, Kahu Crest and Kahu Stratigraphic, and there is no reason why they should not each contain a share of the oil pool envisaged in the original Tui mapping.

Eric Matthews always had a striong belief in the potential of this area (and undoubtedly still has over at AWE), but more recently PPP has been strenghtened in my view, both on the board, and by substantial shareholders, who are not only experienced in identifying potential value in companies like PPP, but are investors for profit (traders). These guys are not interested in long term positions just for the sake of it.

So to conclude, the 2009 drilling campaign will be of great interest, and it is this near term prospect of doubling reserves again which I believe to be driving the current interest. We often see private investors selling on the spud, so I dont know if there is any previous for companies doing the same?

PT

[the machine]

I love it how digger calls us weak for pulling out!

Digger...its a win/lose situation for you. You own more in NZOG proportionately, a lot more, so its in your best interests to have a low ball take over. You'll win on PPP but lose on NZOG and the loss on NZOG will be greater than PPP gain.

80 cents? Come off it...thats valuing tui at over 300 million dollars! Maitland is a small fish and has come off the boil a bit...

Oil in the ground at current prices, excluding operation costs, time value of money, etc etc is 3,000,000 * 40/.7 = $170 million

I was out at 30 cents AU and 35 cents NZD. I still believe I will be able to buy back in cheaper...although things may have changed slightly with their consulting services they are receiving to maximize shareholder wealth.

Im not speculating on t/o price, but 80 cents you'll be waiting a wee while IMO. If NZO were to pay $470m AUD...there would be no cash in the kitty and a declining oil field. Sound like a good deal for NZO? Radford? No...


must admit was a bit surprised how quick sp recovered to 30c au [closed 30.5 au on friday] [but we welcome it]

good luck if you now think can buy back in under 30c au [maybe using nzo as gateway is an option to consider instead]

any takeover offer will need to be at a substantial premium to sp and once firb give approval then watch sp take off.

it is from this level that the t/o will be benchmarked against.

as regards POO - pundits are expecting longer term will be a lot higher than present so nzo will be using a much higher POO than usd$40.

M

[tricha]

Some thoughts from the UK.

Eight or nine years ago Tui used to be mapped as one big structure, probably the largest of the four main structures which at the time were in PEP 38460. After the initial Tui discovery in February 2003, 3D seismic was aquired over 350 km2 of the Tui area during April/May 2003, and in the light of this, mapping of the area became more sophisticated and the orginal Tui was broken down into it's composite parts. But of some reason best known to our directors, or the joint venture partners in general, most of the original Tui structure dropped off the published maps for three or four years, with the exception of the three discoveries to date, i.e. Tui, Amokura and Pateke.

But the other immediately adjacent structures are still there as we can see from the 2008 Annual Report, i.e.Tui SW, Tui SE, Tui NE, Kahu Crest and Kahu Stratigraphic, and there is no reason why they should not each contain a share of the oil pool envisaged in the original Tui mapping.

Eric Matthews always had a striong belief in the potential of this area (and undoubtedly still has over at AWE), but more recently PPP has been strenghtened in my view, both on the board, and by substantial shareholders, who are not only experienced in identifying potential value in companies like PPP, but are investors for profit (traders). These guys are not interested in long term positions just for the sake of it.

So to conclude, the 2009 drilling campaign will be of great interest, and it is this near term prospect of doubling reserves again which I believe to be driving the current interest. We often see private investors selling on the spud, so I dont know if there is any previous for companies doing the same?

PT

Thanks Soletrader for sharing your input, it makes sense.

Can anyone get this map out of here, I've tryed and failed, it's a gem and this picture tells a thousand words. It is what soletrader is implying

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NZO&E=ASX&N=311333