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bermuda

24-10-2008, 05:20 PM

a t/o offer or two and some consolidation might be a nice wee respite for holders of coys in this sector/area right now. Any such bids will hopefully be based on some longer term outlooks and targeted to get larger holders on board i.e. not the RPM $ sort.

BG are desperate. They need CSG badly. They are in trouble in Khazakhstan. Hold on to all your CSG stocks.

ryan

25-10-2008, 06:43 PM

6 tp 7 dollars get my shares

Huang Chung

25-10-2008, 08:33 PM

According to John Durie in The Weekend Australian, BG has QGC's agreeance to a $5.3b offer. That equates to about $5.80 per share.

AOE might have a sympathetic run on Monday on the back of this deal.

Jess9

25-10-2008, 08:46 PM

Great stuff! An offer such as the above could rocket current values and then underpin all CSG stocks in the area, especially ones with larger reserves. Better than anything the FED could do!

Huang Chung

29-10-2008, 12:42 AM

guess who got the biggest % gain after QGC;)

watch closely

33% gain today

50% + please explain in 2 days

Well picked UD.

Why did it happen though?

To my way of thinking, AOE is the last of the mid size independent pure CSG plays, which would make it a target of a major (presumably Shell). PES is much smaller. BOW now also have acreage very similar to PES', and would probably share a few boundaries.

Just not sure why PES ran when the other two didn't??

Financially dependant

30-10-2008, 12:03 PM

Just when it was safe to go back int the water again....

After AGL sold there share of QGC to BG Group they have now sold there PNG assets to an overseas Oil & gas company??

The plot thickens!!

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24575097-36418,00.html

MrDevine

30-10-2008, 12:08 PM

Financially dependant

30-10-2008, 12:18 PM

AGL has said it wants to concentrate on power generation. These asset sales are to clear the debts. Some of these majors have vast cash chests to buy up these things.

Interesting indeed.

Mr D holds BOW and bit of AOE.

Yes, I couldn't figure out why BG gave up some gas resources to do the AGL deal but IF (big IF) they are the buyers of AGL's PNG assets then it makes sense.

AGL gets gas in Oz and additional power generation and BG gets involved with LNG project in PNG! Win-Win!

I will be keeping an eye out for CUE & OSH today;)

soulman

05-11-2008, 08:07 PM

Yep, even the mother of all ORG have an ex-dividend of 25 cents FF and rise today. What a shame that I sold yesterday.

mark100

08-11-2008, 12:41 AM

Big effort from AOE today. After being down 10% early in sympathy with the market it finished the day with a 6% gain, closing near its high for the day

macduffy

08-11-2008, 08:04 AM

Hi uDOG.

You may well be on the right track.
AOE is one of my bigger holdings and I also have a small piece of BOW so probably have as much CSM as I can manage.
Otherwise, PES would be attracting my attention.

;)

Financially dependant

10-11-2008, 12:53 PM

Another update to the excellent CSG article.

http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/4618#more

bermuda

10-11-2008, 03:43 PM

Another update to the excellent CSG article.

http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/4618#more

Top article FD, many thanks. Must get to meet this guy Matthews.
Cheers

Tok3n

10-11-2008, 04:00 PM

Didn't Matthews get hit margin calls with his energy related hedge funds?

Financially dependant

10-11-2008, 04:34 PM

Top article FD, many thanks. Must get to meet this guy Matthews.
Cheers

No worries bermuda, did you check out Obama's energy speech? He get's it!

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4716

Huang Chung

15-11-2008, 12:00 PM

Thanks for that UD....actually picked up a few WPLs during the week.

Jess9

15-11-2008, 06:43 PM

looking at small caps with some great CSG permits why no BOW, Underdog?

mark100

15-11-2008, 10:13 PM

I reckon its about the only place to be going forward

WPL, AOE, VPE, PES for me

havent got WPL yet, but It looks a good med term buy

Im buying more PES though, higher risk but I figure time with come for AOE and Shell to gobble them up at a premium with 12 months.

Also STO I reckon. Lower funding risk than WPL and the takeover cap will soon be lifted. WPL has also expressed an interest in PNG LNG, in which STO has decent sized interest

The Big Ease

17-11-2008, 08:34 AM

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=6550AF13-1871-E587-E106F4DB6DE8D4BE

Classical Gas
FN Arena News - November 04 2008

By Greg Peel

Once upon a time coal miners used to carry in a canary in a cage into a mine as a primitive form of gas meter. Were the canary to suddenly drop dead, the miners would retreat. The tiny bird would always feel a more immediate effect from deadly concentrations of methane gas. Methane trapped in coal seams was always one of the coal mining industry's biggest dangers and subsequent problems. For many years mining companies would pipe methane to the surface and burn it off into the atmosphere to allow safe access to the valuable coal beneath.

In early 2008, a bleaker than usual Chinese winter shut down much of the industry in the more northern, snowbound regions of the country. As home to many of the nation's coal-burning power stations, the shutdowns highlighted the fact that China's energy supply was insufficient to maintain the country's rate of economic growth.

At the same time a more fundamental problem became apparent. When the snow melted, the power stations could fire up again. But the reality was China was also reaching the limit of its own coal supplies. After having always survived as a net exporter of coal, there was a risk China would now need to become a net importer. When the big coal importers of Japan and Korea then sat down to negotiate annual coal supply contracts with the world's largest coal exporter - Australia - they found they suddenly had to pay three times the previous year's price.

The world had already begun to seek alternatives to coal-fired energy in response to perceived climate change. The spectacular rise in the oil price up to 2008 only made the need for any form of alternative energy more imperative. When the coal price finally jumped to match the general cost in the global price of energy, alternative energy saw a big jump in investment interest, but strangely enough, one alternative energy company sat conspicuously under the radar.

That company was Origin Energy (ORG). Origin spun off from building products specialist Boral in 2000 at a price of $1.54 per share and then went about buying up energy assets both upstream and downstream. As both a driller/explorer and retailer, Origin was a bit of a mess for stock analysts who couldn't quite work out whether the company was an oil and gas producer or a utility. Origin acquired many diverse assets, but one area it was keen on was that of coal seam gas - the methane of which we speak. Queensland was set to privatise its electricity industry, and Origin saw great potential in converting CSM into liquid natural gas to fire power stations. LNG-sourced electricity is much cleaner than coal-sourced electricity.

Nobody paid much attention.

Yet not much earlier, LNG had been all the rage. As the price of oil began to rise alarmingly in the noughties, the value of natural gas as an alternative to dwindling oil supplies became apparent. Australia had always been a large global player in the LNG market, but attention had suddenly swung to Papua New Guinea. The country had an abundant source of LNG, and before long global giants Exxon and Nippon Oil had teamed up with Australian companies Santos ((STO)), AGL Energy ((AGK)) and Oil Search ((OSH)), along with investment from the PNG government, to exploit the country's reserves. It was never going to happen overnight, and even if the project did get up and running there was talk of perhaps a massive pipeline back to Australia to consider, which just gave the whole thing a bit of a "pie in the sky" feel.

Analysts all agreed that PNG LNG would likely pull Santos out of its doldrums, while for Oil Search it could be a "company-making" project. For a couple of years any valuation of the shares of each company came with a caveat that a successful PNG LNG ramp-up would mean a huge jump in value - one day.

But the market got a bit bored.

In early 2008, stock analysts were preoccupied with the rising price of oil and the effect that a new regime of carbon trading might have on companies in both the traditional energy market and the alternative energy market. One such beneficiary of the latter case would be Origin Energy, they all agreed, but carbon trading has been just another element to consider for the longer term. In the shorter term, Origin wasn't kicking any great goals with its production figures. Analysts were inclined to give the stock little more than a Hold rating.

Then in May, a bombshell was dropped.

As energy sector analysts dozed, British gas giant BG made a friendly $14.70 per share takeover offer for Origin. The price was 40% above the previous closing price for Origin shares and 50% above the volume-weighted average of trading for the previous month - the measure by which takeover premiums are priced.

The market was gobsmacked. "Take it, take it!" screamed most analysts. But loyal Origin CEO Grant King was not going to let his baby go quite so easily. He advised shareholders to reject the bid while the board considered the offer. In the meantime, the price of other companies with anything to do with gas also shot up. This was a natural gas wake-up call. And more specifically, a CSM wake-up call. BG had indicated it was Origin's previously shrugged-off CSM assets it was most interested in.

The market was again to be gobsmacked when the board said no. Friendly takeover bids of 50% premium are rarely rejected. But King went to great lengths to impress upon the market that Origin's gas assets were worth a lot more than analysts had ever previously given them credit for. The company quickly announced large increases in proven and unproven reserves. As far as King was concerned, BG was only making an opportunistic bid against a share price the market had incorrectly priced for years.

Soon analysts started to come around to King's way of thinking. But if they needed any further encouragement, they got it in the form of a new bid from BG. Following discussions with the Origin board, the bid was lifted from $14.70 to $15.50 per share at the end of May. No doubt BG was sure this would seal the deal. However, having been forced to properly evaluate the potential of coal seam gas as an asset in the twenty-first century, some analysts had already started setting 12-month target prices for Origin in excess of $20.00. Only a month earlier, $10 was about par.

Nevertheless, it was going to be even harder for Grant King to convince Origin shareholders to have faith and hang on. In setting its first high-premium price, BG no doubt thought it had a killer punch. But it had also opened a hornets' nest, drawing global attention to Australian gas. The $15.50 was meant to be a deal-sealer, and it is likely there were plenty of shareholders prepared to take the money and run. Origin fought back with more substantial reserve increases, but the obvious question was why now? Where were these supposed reserves before the bid? Unfortunately for BG however, it never saw the Malaysians coming.

Santos had long been the "Nigel No-Friends" of the Australian oil and gas sector, struggling to ever find a stock analyst who would support it. Santos would just bungle along providing disappointment, all the while constrained by an old South Australian government law which prevented it from opening up its register to major equity investors. However Santos was also quietly involved in CSM, and despite the BG bid for Origin the market had still failed to appreciate this fact. Thus when Petronas snuck around the corner and announced it had acquired a 40% stake in the Santos gas project for a mind-boggling amount, analysts fell off their chairs for the second time in a month. Targets that were previously set around $15.00 for Santos suddenly became $25.00. If the BG bid for Origin was a potential industry re-rating, the Petronas deal with Santos was the confirmation.

It is now history that Petronas probably saved Grant King from losing Origin, thereby providing the market with more than just blind ego as justification for his stance. BG was clearly livid, immediately moving to make its bid hostile. But the Brits were not going to raise their price any further. They would leave it to the shareholders to decide. The shareholders stuck by their CEO.

That was June, and we are now in November. In the meantime, global financial markets have collapsed. As a result, global energy prices have collapsed. In the ensuing period, and despite the mid-year goings on, many Australian oil and gas companies have since lost up to half of their share price value. At one stage it looked as if the great CSM/LNG story might be over just as quickly as it began.

But it wasn't.

Origin's shares were never going to fall as much as some of its competitors, given one assumes the BG bid was still lingering and thus providing a floor. The new world financial regime meant that what had been one of the most promising industries to be in five minutes ago was now dead in the water. With oil at US$60/bbl instead of something over US$100/bbl, alternative energy sources appeared to have lost any appeal. Renewable energy developers were the hardest hit. September saw massive selling. Yet this, of course, was a fairly short-sighted view.

For starters, Origin had taken the obligatory step of retaining an independent expert to assess the company's claims that even the higher BG bid undervalued the company's potential. Grant Samuel did not disappoint, coming back with a valuation of $28.55 to $30.71 for a company that had been trading at under $10.00 not six months earlier. While impressive, this valuation meant little when the world was redeeming in desperation, so it took a real deal to stop the rot. When US giant Conoco-Phillips bought a half share in Origin's CSM assets in mid-September for $9.6 billion, Grant King was resoundingly justified. And elevated to god-like status.

One company to feel the brunt of redemption selling, nevertheless, was Queensland Gas ((QGC)), despite the fact QGC is an Origin look-alike in many respects and the first stock to jump in sympathy when BG made its original bid for Origin. But when you've gotta sell, you've gotta sell. QGC shares fell from an Origin-inspired peak of over $6.00 in May to around $2.50 in October.

Anyone who thought BG must now surely have taken its bat and ball and gone home was mistaken. BG's original bid for Origin may have seemed opportunistic in retrospect, but it was not made simply because oil looked like reaching at least US$150/bbl in the short term. It was made with a long term view in mind, and BG's long term view is clearly that there is value in CSM.

Having failed with Origin, in late October BG announced a bid for QGC at $5.75 per share - some 80% above where the shares were trading but closer to where they had reached when BG made its first offer for Origin. This time the market was sure QGC would accept the bid. Despite global stock market and commodity market carnage, CSM was back on the radar.

Or more generally, as it turned out, LNG. Only a couple of days later, AGL Energy announced it had sold its PNG assets, including a stake in the great PNG LNG project, for $1.1 billion. AGL had long flagged it would sell these assets as part of its consolidation, but analysts had considered this would take a while yet, given the circumstances. They had also considered about $800 million to be a realistic price.

AGL was not prepared to divulge the identity of the buyer, and it is still a mystery. However, Citi analysts are prepared to make a bet the mystery buyer is in fact Italian oil and gas giant Eni (if it's not BG again). The reason is that Eni had previously announced a long term partnership agreement with the PNG government. The PNG government is one shareholder in PNG LNG, and AGL is another.

And so is Santos, and so is Oil Search. The AGL sale was great news for Oil Search in particular, for the company holds pre-emptive rights over the AGL PNG parcel. While it might have been nice for Oil Search to increase its stake in PNG LNG at such a time when the world appears to be coveting LNG, it would have required additional funding at a time when funding is not easily found, or at least very expensive. This meant an overhanging "equity risk". It is now assumed the AGL sale removes Oil Search's possible obligation, but at the same time places a accountable value on the company's existing PNG assets - those same assets that are assumed will one day prove "company-making". It is good news all round, as the Citi analysts proclaimed.

For AGL, it was also a win-win. Not only does the company get to book a nice valuation profit, it is also now cashed up. This means AGL is in a position to jump on any fresh assets that might come onto the market from distressed sales. NSW Electricity is still a lingering possibility. On the macro scale Citi has proclaimed that "Clearly corporates are taking long term views about strategic assets like LNG". And on that basis, [investors] "Ignore at your peril".

If that wasn't enough gas news for one week, we were quickly to learn that Origin had received an upfront payment from Conoco-Phillips on its gas arrangement of US$5 billion. Given the Aussie has collapsed since the deal was struck, Origin has scored a bonus A$875 million. Only months ago Origin was stretching its gearing to near the company's 45% limit. With the extra money from Conoco, Origin is now cashed up and, like AGL, in a position to spend.

There has been no confirmation that Grant King now reaches his office by simply walking across the Brisbane River.

American oil sqillionaire T Boone Pickens has been a major supporter of alternative energy sources, and was afforded a lot of media airtime back in June when oil was trading at over US$140/bbl. Pickens was sure oil was going to at least US$150/bbl and has recently been a big advocate of diminishing America's dependence on foreign oil imports, particularly from enemies. He particularly favours wind energy and natural gas. In the case of the former, Pickens is in the process of building the world's biggest wind farm in the US. In the case of the latter, Pickens is lobbying that all US road transport should be fuelled by natural gas rather than diesel. This would be a major step towards reducing carbon emissions and reducing oil imports. The US has it own sources of natural gas.

Imagine if the world's greatest consumer of oil - by a long way - started switching to natural gas. Whether or not this is a case of rose-tinted glasses, or even a project for the distant future, there is little doubting the world's largest oil and gas companies are currently scrambling to buy up assets that will enhance their exiting supplies and sources. Having reaped an extraordinary benefit from five years of rocketing oil prices, cashed up corporates are now consolidating their future. They're clearly not going to let one little global recession make a difference. They are not two-year players.

What or who will be in their sights next?

bermuda

17-11-2008, 09:56 AM

Hi TBE,
That Greg Peel has sure got his head screwed on properly.

One of the best articles I have read on the current situation.

Many thanks for your post.

There's plenty of action coming up. Remember Sentient Group bought into QGC at 25 cents and have now sold out at $5.75. And their next target.? ....VPE at 19.5 cents.

The Big Ease

17-11-2008, 10:41 AM

here is hoping we can get half 5.75!
either way, i like what is happening. just wish it would hurry along ;)
Don Juan soon anyhow. then they will probably spend some time proving up even more of that permit. good times ahead.....i think one of the majors might pop up in the next few weeks.

so far their behaviour has been trending towards attacking after each market selldown.
lets see if they keep at it.

Dr_Who

17-11-2008, 11:56 AM

Excellent article, thanks.

The Big Ease

17-11-2008, 12:07 PM

so anyone reckon agl got cashed up to go on a buying spree in prospective csg?
would that make sense?

what could they want to do with all that cash?

bermuda

17-11-2008, 12:57 PM

so anyone reckon agl got cashed up to go on a buying spree in prospective csg?
would that make sense?

what could they want to do with all that cash?

Well, they are looking hard at Lacerta (SHG /BG/QGC ) and that is right next door to Don Juan ( BOW/VPE ). They have the right to Lacerta at$0.78/Gj for their 1000Pj of 3P reserves. And I think they are looking hard at AOE and PES.

Very interesting indeed. I am looking forward to BOW/VPE getting certified at Don Juan and some imminent drilling by BOW ( VPE ) at Canaway.

Plenty to look forward to. 240 LNG ships on the water and another 160 on the order books. Big mothers they are too. Buy some real estate in Gladstone.

The Big Ease

17-11-2008, 01:03 PM

cheers B.
appreciate your opinion.

Dr_Who

17-11-2008, 02:47 PM

Very interesting indeed. I am looking forward to BOW/VPE getting certified at Don Juan and some imminent drilling by BOW ( VPE ) at Canaway.

Bermuda, what date for certification?

bermuda

17-11-2008, 03:32 PM

Bermuda, what date for certification?

Knowing this Industry I would say about the end of April 2009. But it could be earlier. I hope so. I was heartened by AGL's big interest in Lacerta. I really think that post made by TBE says it all.

There are 100 new coal fired electricity plants planned in the USA but methinks a lot of these will get canned by Obama who will preside in a temporary energy demand lull. He will focus on alternatives such as wind, nuclear and solar. The attempt to make ethanol from corn in the USA was always doomed and I have never been a fan of biofuels.

I am a fan of CSG and so are a growing number of heavyweights around the world. Another I am watching is UCG. Have a little look at CNX. Also in CSG/ LNG's favour is that there is a growing lobby by environmentalists to stop gas exploration companies using damaging fraacing fluids which are reportedly harming aquafiers.

But we have a depression in front of us. And it will last for well over a year.

The big boys wouldnt be hanging around CSG unless there was a requirement. Just got to bide our time. The Indians were meant to be having a crack at Queensland CSG. I reckon they are waiting in the wings.

Anyway, lot's to look forward to in the CSG sector. Just wish it was a normal market.

Mysterybox

25-11-2008, 03:47 PM

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/oil-gas/news/article.cfm?c_id=273&objectid=10509487

CSG in New Zealand - Herald

upside_umop

02-12-2008, 08:33 AM

Yeah PES look to be on a roll...

Might take a gamble on a retracement. 'Might'...haha

The Big Ease

02-12-2008, 09:15 AM

ESG upgrades 2P by 82%

http://aspect.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20081118/pdf/00903906.pdf

"Eastern Star Gas Limited (ASX:ESG), together with joint venture partner,
Gastar Exploration Ltd (AMEX: GST & TSX: YGA.TO), is pleased to announce a
further 82% increase in the independently certified Proved and Probable (2P)
gas reserves of the Narrabri coal seam gas project in Northern NSW. As at 30
September 2008, certified 2P reserves have been increased to 336 PJ (65% of
which is attributable to ESG)."

yet the market cap is less than 200m.
why is it so?

mark100

02-12-2008, 12:37 PM

yet the market cap is less than 200m.
why is it so?

Maybe there flow rates aren't so good? I'm not sure I don't follow ESG.

2P reserves don't necessarily mean flow rates are any good. PES announced a couple of pretty good flow rates for their test wells, up their with what AOE and QGC are getting. I know MEL which is in NSW is struggling to get commercial flow rates from their NSW CSG.

The Big Ease

02-12-2008, 01:05 PM

yeaah eeh sorry my mistake.
esg mc = 240
pes mc = 180 despite 3p of more than 1000pj in one of their permits.

macduffy

02-12-2008, 01:24 PM

mark100

02-12-2008, 01:56 PM

From my rough calculation of the ratio of 2P reserves to M/Cap, ESG appears to come out as somewhat more expensive than CSM leader, Arrow Energy.
Using the "Age" market caps of AOE $1414m and ESG $242m, the former's 2P reserves of 2247PJ produces a "yield" of 1.59PJ per $1m m/cap.
ESG yields 1.38PJ per $1m m/cap from 336PJ.

I find it best to use Enterprise Value, which adjusts for either net cash or debt on the balance sheet. In the next couple of weeks AOE is due to receive from Shell a sum of cash equal to around 50% of its current market cap. That makes AOE look very good value on any reserve ratio calculations

macduffy

02-12-2008, 02:13 PM

I find it best to use Enterprise Value, which adjusts for either net cash or debt on the balance sheet. In the next couple of weeks AOE is due to receive from Shell a sum of cash equal to around 50% of its current market cap. That makes AOE look very good value on any reserve ratio calculations

Fair point.
Using market cap makes the sometimes doubtful assumption that the market has factored in the cash/debt aspect more or less accurately.
Either way you look at it AOE looks good value, IMO.

Disc: Yes, I hold AOE.

;)

mark100

02-12-2008, 02:33 PM

Disc: Yes, I hold AOE.

;)

Same here. I think they're great value right now

mark100

03-12-2008, 01:17 AM

$2.20

wow, very happy with that pick.

since June, 3 CSG stocks are still green

1. SHG 83%
2. PES 50% now and flying from $1.40
3. QGC 34%

all the rest, some 18 stocks are still red.

Well picked. Unfortunately I didn't get on board. I was trying to avoid what I perceived as the riskier end of the CSG spectrum, and that included PES. I'll console myself knowing that I rode SHG all this year!

mark100

17-12-2008, 11:25 AM

Another coal seam gas transaction announced this morning. AJL and MPO have sold their Gloucester CSG field to AGL Energy for A$370m

2P and 3P reserves for the field are 170 bcf and 359 bcf respectively (176 PJ and 371 PJ).

So the transaction implies a multiple of A$2.1/2P GJ and A$1.0/3P GJ (pre reserves upgrade)which is around the ball park of other earlier transactions despite the recent fall in the oil price.

MPO's market cap is currently around $120m and they are getting $111m as sale proceeds despite still having their QLD, Canada, South Africa etc assets. The amount of tax to be paid isn't clear as yet, they have some tax losses to help offset the bill it seems.

The transaction goes to show their is still value in a lot of these csg plays if they can prove up a reasonable amount of reserves. AOE, PES, MPO and MEL seem cheap based on current reserves and BOW, VPE and WCL are potentially cheap if they can prove up some reserves.

Rif-Raf

18-12-2008, 07:54 PM

charts looking pretty good for most of the players especially after the last couple of days activity MPO,BOW,PES,VPE in particular

Corporate

22-12-2008, 01:05 PM

charts looking pretty good for most of the players especially after the last couple of days activity MPO,BOW,PES,VPE in particular

Definitely looking like it may RR

Financially dependant

22-12-2008, 01:14 PM

And another nice little push in the right direction.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24832847-5005200,00.html

The Big Ease

24-12-2008, 12:08 AM

interesting...
Commentary
12:51 PM, 23 Dec 2008

Stephen Bartholomeusz

AGL moves into position
TOP News

Trading halts for three companies this morning is a strong signal that the latest bout of consolidation of the coal seam gas sector is about to get underway. Unlike the flurry of large-scale activity throughout this year, however, this time the action is moving into NSW.

The securities of AGL, Sydney Gas and AJ Lucas Group were all placed in trading halts this morning: AGL’s and AJ Lucas’s because they are both involved in discussions concerning a "material transaction". Sydney Gas is in a trading halt "in relation to a takeover bid." AJ Lucas became Sydney Gas’s major shareholder, with about 20 per cent of its capital, this year.

As the joint venture partner of Sydney Gas in its Hunter Valley and Camden and Sydney projects, AGL already has its foot on the group’s key resources.

Sydney Gas is potentially of real strategic consequence for AGL, the largest supplier of gas into Sydney and Newcastle.

There is an expectation of an increasing shortfall of gas for the Sydney market over the next decade that coal seam gas is expected to meet. With the more deeply explored and developed Queensland coal seam gas fields earmarked for the plethora of export LNG plants on the drawing boards, NSW gas will come into increasing focus.

Sydney Gas’s reserves and prospects are located close to the NSW electricity grid and the main gas transmission pipelines into Newcastle and Sydney. It already has long-term contracts to supply AGL. The joint venture partners have talked about an ambition of supplying up to 20 per cent of the existing NSW gas market by 2015 from its resources at Camden and the Hunter Valley and up to 50 per cent beyond 2015.

AGL, having sold its stake in Queensland Gas Company to BG Group for $1.2 billion and its oil and gas interest in Papua New Guinea for $1.1 billion this year is well placed for expansion. As part of the BG deal AGL was granted options over more than 1000 petajoules of Queensland gas reserves and exploration acreage, options that would cost $856 million to exercise.

Sydney Gas wouldn’t be a major move for AGL. It has a market capitalisation of only about $110 million, although the spate of coal seam gas transactions – including Arrow Energy’s $551 million bid for Pure Energy this week – says that market prices aren’t much of a guide to takeover values in the sector. Arrow offered about $5.40 a share for Pure when the target’s shares had been trading at less than $1 only about six weeks ago.

In the current environment there is likely to be significant consolidation of the smaller and more weakly-funded players in coal seam gas as the Queensland LNG players look to secure the resources needed to under-pin two-train LNG projects and the bigger players move to pre-empt the likely positive (for producers) eventual impact of the LNG projects on domestic gas prices.

There are vast amounts of gas in the Sydney Basin so the prospect of rising gas prices and shortfalls in supply ought to see what has until now been a Queensland-focused land-grab spill into NSW.

There are some transmission constraints in supplying Queensland gas into NSW and there would be benefits for the sector in displacing Queensland gas contracted to NSW customers – freeing it up for the LNG plants – with local production

Financially dependant

24-12-2008, 09:28 AM

The price of gas jumped today...

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS/12/23/russia.putin.gas/index.html

Putin warning of the end of cheap gas!

KentBrockman

05-01-2009, 10:21 AM

Interesting article on natural gas in Europe.

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4933

bermuda

05-01-2009, 10:42 AM

Interesting article on natural gas in Europe.

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4933

Thanks Kent,

A very detailed report and some very serious issues. That is why British Gas, Petronas, Sojitsi and Conoco have invested in Queensland Coal Seam Gas. And others are looking.

Disc. Hold BOW, VPE, VPEO as CSG stocks,
CNX as as UCG
NZO, TEX, TEXO and ITC as oilers.

Nothing else.

STRAT

05-01-2009, 10:57 AM

Thanks Kent,

A very detailed report and some very serious issues. That is why British Gas, Petronas, Sojitsi and Conoco have invested in Queensland Coal Seam Gas. And others are looking.

Disc. Hold BOW, VPE, VPEO as CSG stocks,
CNX as as UCG
NZO, TEX, TEXO and ITC as oilers.

Nothing else.Hi Bermuda and Happy New Year to you. May I ask whats the conversion price on TEXO?

shasta

05-01-2009, 07:12 PM

Hi Bermuda and Happy New Year to you. May I ask whats the conversion price on TEXO?

25c expires 26 Nov 09 :D

STRAT

05-01-2009, 08:34 PM

25c expires 26 Nov 09 :DYeah thanks Shasta and happy New Year.

A ways off the money as yet and not all that long to run.

shasta

05-01-2009, 08:39 PM

Yeah thanks Shasta and happy New Year.

A ways off the money as yet and not all that long to run.

Cheers & to you too ;)

TEXO just needs a CATAPULT, that's all :D

KentBrockman

06-01-2009, 08:50 PM

More gas problems in Europe:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/4127173/Europe-faces-energy-crisis-as-Vladimir-Putin-cuts-Russian-gas-supply.html

pago

06-01-2009, 09:13 PM

More gas problems in Europe:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/4127173/Europe-faces-energy-crisis-as-Vladimir-Putin-cuts-Russian-gas-supply.html

hi kent .epg oz listed,operating in france,cheers pago

Huang Chung

22-02-2009, 06:16 PM

Transcript of Alan Kohler's interview with Don Volte, MD of Woodside. As we all know, Don, not surprisingly, is not a huge fan of CSG.

Gets a mention in the interview.

ALAN KOHLER, PRESENTER: Despite talk of debt markets being in lockdown, Woodside Petroleum this week confidently said it would be borrowing billions of dollars to finish one of the biggest, most ambitious Capex budgets ever seen on Australia. No equity issue for Woodside apparently. To deliver the $12 billion Pluto LNG project of the WA coast the company will be cutting costs, selling assets and talking to Banks.

The company also turned in a solid set of results with its full year profit up 73 per cent to $1.8 billion. I spoke to Woodside boss Don Volte.
Well Don Volte perhaps we can start with just clarifying how much do you have to left to spend developing the Pluto field in Western Australia?

DON VOLTE, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM CEO: Our major portion of the big spend will be in 2009. In 2010 we go into a commission mode but the major portion of construction will be finished by that time. All the components have been purchased at this point and all the major contracts in place. So getting through 2009 is the main funding hurdle.

ALAN KOHLER: So what's the total you have to spend this year? Is it $7.5 billion, something like that?

DON VOLTE: It comes down to $7.2 billion I believe is the actual number that was committed to. We've, with the A dollar exchange, in other words with the A dollar weakness versus the US the budget actually increased a bit and then we brought that back down through funding reductions and deferrals. So we have about a $7 billion spend this year, yes.

ALAN KOHLER: And you reckon you've got a one to $1.7 billion gap at this stage.

DON VOLTE: At this stage...

ALAN KOHLER: And that includes selling what you call non core assets and reducing costs by 500 million?

DON VOLTE: Yeah, we've committed to the cost reductions, we have more to come there. We have not committed to any sale of any asset. What we said was we may test the market place. So we believe that we have alternatives...

ALAN KOHLER: The market place is not very good.

DON VOLTE: Well I don't know about that. You take a look at the coal seam methane sales recently and gas is valuable in that respect.

ALAN KOHLER: They all went crazy.

DON VOLTE: I don't think I'll make too many comments about that. The market place is what the market place is and people felt they were worth that and more than one company put those big dollars up.

ALAN KOHLER: So do you cross your heart and hope to die no capital raising this year, no equity raising share issue?

DON VOLTE: It's not the intention to do a capital raise this year. What we're doing is basically trying to fill the gap funding until we get Pluto on stream first thing in 2011. At that point with those contracts we believe that the spending crisis, as you might call it, is over. It's our full intent to reach the debt markets and fill the gap that way.

ALAN KOHLER: Right, but that's not a guarantee of no equity raising. I guess you can't make one, can you?

DON VOLTE: It's a situation where you can't make the guarantee but I doubt if we would make this type of a statement to the market place and to our shareholders of what our intention is unless we have a pretty good confidence level. We have a different currency. We have long term 20 year, 15, 20 year contracts based on energy markets, that's a different currency we have backing our company than what maybe some other companies are experiencing difficulty in raising debt.

ALAN KOHLER: Has anyone from China offered to give you the money?

DON VOLTE: Well actually we've had a lot of inquiries from different places that have actually offered up ideas about giving something, we'll stay with the traditional methods that we've used and keep those relationships in place.

ALAN KOHLER: I mean in general any nibbles from China to buy Woodside or take a significant stake.

DON VOLTE: No, if we had any offers to purchase the company of course we'd have to disclose that immediately to the market place.

ALAN KOHLER: Do you think, I mean in the line of the knock back of Shell's takeover of Woodside, do you think that any kind of bid from China would be ever likely to succeed, get through the Government?

DON VOLTE: Well you'd have to get through Shell first, I guess.

ALAN KOHLER: That's true.

DON VOLTE: But Alan, I'd just say that you know, we believe in a free enterprise system. Everybody has a value of what different company's assets are. We're not immune to that by any means but we believe the value of the company and the value of the assets is a lot more transparent than maybe it used to be and people understand the value of the company.

ALAN KOHLER: You mentioned coal seam gas, why hasn't Woodside done anything with coal seam gas; don't you think much of it?

DON VOLTE: Well there's two reasons. Number one, we have such a big portfolio of undeveloped gas ourselves from our what you might call more conventional gas resources in Western Australia offshore and also the Timor Sea. That should keep us busy for a decade or two to come. Number two is that we've taken a look at prices other people view that to be worth. We know the issues with literally thousands of wells that have to be drilled to produce a feed into the plants, the plants aren't any trick at all, those are easy to build...not easy to build but they're to be built. It's onshore, there's a lot of water issues, there's a lot of distribution.

I think there's going to be plants built there but I think there's going to be a large consolidation. There will probably be one or two projects that get off. I just don't believe there could be four, five, six, seven projects, it won't support that kind of a feed.
ALAN KOHLER: So you think the Queensland methane province will get developed to some extent but not to the same extent that perhaps people are projecting?

DON VOLTE: It's very easy right now. There's lots of reasons. To put coal bed methane contingent resources in your company's portfolio, you can put large contingent resources and have them in your books.

What I'm waiting for is the first front end engineering and economic analysis of this gas to get to the stage where board of directors have to make 10 and $15 billion commitments to build. What are the economics of this lean gas? Where's the market place for it?

ALAN KOHLER: The oil price has collapsed, what sort of impact is that having on the LNG price and therefore your contract prices?

DON VOLTE: Yes, well there's two different types of ways that people sell their LNG. One under long term contracts. There is a, there's two effects of lower oil prices. Yes, lower oil prices will ultimately impact LNG prices because it's based off of oil price but there's a lagging effect and in our case of the North West shelf it's about a three to six month lag effect. And then number two, it is a situation where there are actual contractual floor price mechanisms so you don't get sometimes the top end of the oil price but you're protected in the bottom.

And that's basically a mechanism to protect the cost of the capital investment to make LNG.

So yes, the oil prices will, but they're usually moderated with oil price.

ALAN KOHLER: Thanks for joining us Don Volte.

DON VOLTE: Thank you.

tricha

22-02-2009, 10:25 PM

Thanks for this Huang, it is a very clear message to all of us.

mark100

22-02-2009, 10:52 PM

And a small piece from this week's oil and gas weekly, the author of which has been quite slow to embrace CSG:

"Over the last six months or so as most of us watched our portfolio plums
become prunes, those that held coal seam gas stocks are laughing. The coal
seam gas plays are the only companies to have defied the market melt
down. Well, mostly.
And it is all due to the rise and rise of the coal seam gas industry in
Queensland.
The industry still has its sceptics. Even some insiders like Woodside’s Don
Voelte don’t think the industry will find buyers for a poorer quality gas
untried as a feedstock for LNG.
But it is hard to remain cynical when the likes of BG Group, Conoco
Philips, Petronas and Royal Dutch Shell have spent billions of dollars
acquiring stakes in various Queensland based coal seam gas projects. They
don’t appear to be worried about sewing up sales contracts.
All they are interested in is getting a great asset at a cheap price to build a
new csg based LNG industry somewhere where Vladimir Putin can’t screw
them.
Its true coal seam gas has a slightly lower energy content (Btus) than
conventional gas but this will obviously be reflected in the sales price. It
doesn’t mean customers won’t want it.
To say as some critics have that csg is not appropriate for domestic use
without modifications to appliances or additives to the gas denies the fact
that some 85% of the gas used both domestically and industrially in
Queensland is coal seam gas.
Looks very much to us as though BHP Billiton and Woodside have missed
the coal seam gas boat. Not least because of their preoccupations and
commitments elsewhere. The only Australian company to join the buying
spree has been AGL."

Huang Chung

22-02-2009, 11:49 PM

Yes, some very big players taking opposing views on CSG. It will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

I reckon one of the better ideas might be to invest in companies with good CSG prospects in large energy consuming countries like China and India. If they can successfully exploit these prospects, it avoids the need, risk and cost of liquifying the gas for seaborn transportation.

Arrow Energy, with prospects in both countries mentioned above, come immediately to mind.

The Big Ease

23-02-2009, 12:03 AM

mark100

23-02-2009, 06:27 AM

i can understand why voelte doesnt think much of csg.
on inside business this week, he said his company has enough conventional gas projects to keep them busy for 10-20 years. they just dont need it.

clearly, others do.

Very true. I reckon WPL will be a powerhouse LNG player in a few years. I'm just a little concerned that if oil remains low over the nest 12 months or so they may need a discounted rights issue to fund some of their commitments (despite what they are saying). I plan to be a buyer at some stage over the next 6-12 months.

Holding/trading STO, AOE, PES for now. Plus BOW when it drops back. Also keeping on eye on the cashed up ORG, it is falling back.

Huang Chung

18-05-2009, 08:45 PM

Bermuda

I recall reading a post of yours recently on Hot Copper about your love of finding undiscovered CSG plays.

I'm not sure if Lodestone Exploration has got onto your radar or not, but you might care to look and offer an opinion.

Lodestone were/are a mining wannabe, who have made the shift to CSG, after not having a great deal of luck on the mining exploration front. They have got rid of a lot of their less prospective mining tennaments, kept the better ones, and also moved into the CSG space, picking up tennaments in the Surat and Moreton basins. If they find anything in their Surat basin tennaments, I would imagine the gas could be piped to Gladstone for LNG conversion/export. Surat basin tennaments look a bit too far to the west, in my humble opinion, but you would know more about this than me.

Just thought I'd air it for you.

http://www.lodestonex.com/

bermuda

18-05-2009, 10:11 PM

robjb5

19-05-2009, 11:35 AM

Hi,Bermuda..On this same subject, have you cast an eye over CTP?...Last night they released an announcement confirming their plans for this drilling season and it would appear that there will be two distinct programs. One for conv. oil/gas/helium, managed by CTP staff and another for CSM managed by BG/PXA...Interesting times...

bermuda

19-05-2009, 12:28 PM

Thanks for that. Will take a very close look. If it is under my radar then you have probably gained an extra bagger or two. Not that I worry, am happy with what I have.

I really should do a study of these companies. Just bought into STX and BLU.

CSG, fuel of the future. Will let you know re lodestone. Anything around this area is in attention.

HC, Re LOD,
Am impressed. Excellent Directors. Not many on issue. Coal quality reasonable. But has run quite hard since. March. Stay with.

I am sticking with BOW. Did you see that Mather bought 430K on market last week.? What a show of support. Directors don't do this for nothing. So much to look forward to.

Rob,
CTP is on my watchlist. Was going to buy but was warned off a year ago.The CSG side with BG will give it credibility and a boost when they get round to drilling.

sharer

19-05-2009, 01:58 PM

...
CSG, fuel of the future. ....

Would be interesting to know what Bermuda, Shasta, Huang Chung & others think about recent news from LMP - apparently significant amounts of coal methane found and now confirmed in the large western Southland coal fields in NZ.
Company well cashed & also has other interesting licenses & active drilling programme running ... On the other hand i read somewhere recently (?IFT.nzx re Austr energy subsidiary?) that small scale Aus CSG schemes may be sold off - wondered why that would be sensible?

trackers

26-05-2009, 02:01 PM

Not sure if this has been shared before, a Uni of Canterbury masters paper on CSG in NZ.. a good read:

http://digital-library.canterbury.ac.nz/data/collection3/etd/adt-NZCU20060926.120456/02whole.pdf

Pages 1-5 are CSG background, moving onto NZ-specific discussion

bermuda

26-05-2009, 02:32 PM

Huang Chung

30-05-2009, 10:58 PM

Where is Australia heading with CSG?

I'm starting to wonder if the world will someday be awash with cheap gas, courtesy of all the LNG that will likely be produced from both conventianal and CSG sources.

Take Australia for example. We've talked about the Qld CSG regularly, especially the LNG export potential via Gladstone. But now you have STX looking for CSG in the Southern Cooper, and Central Petroleum on the SA/NT border. I would imagine that STO, BPT and other holders of Cooper Basin acreage will also be considering the CSG potential of their leases. I imagine the up-shot of all this will be an LNG export plant somewhere near Port Bonython in the state's south.

In NSW, there is now talk of an LNG terminal in Newcastle, to provide an export market for the vast gas reserves in that state.

Where does this all end? Will Australia become the Middle-East of the 21 Century? How many of these ideas get off the ground? Or are we just kidding ourselves?

What do others think?

shasta

30-05-2009, 11:39 PM

The Big Ease

30-05-2009, 11:46 PM

IMO and it's fairly superficial too, but the weight of money from the biggest energy companies in the world tells me CSG is for real and we haven't even started yet.

Huang Chung

30-05-2009, 11:55 PM

IMO and it's fairly superficial too, but the weight of money from the biggest energy companies in the world tells me CSG is for real and we haven't even started yet.

TBE, I have no doubt it's real. The problem to me is that there seems like there might be too much of it! Unless demand grows astronomically, we are either going to have a lot of gas that doesn't get developed for years/decades, or a lot of very cheap gas. You'd have to think that there is going to be some sort of 'first mover advantage' in getting LNG plants set up. Latecomers to the CSG party might find the door is shut.

The Big Ease

31-05-2009, 12:36 AM

I guess the equation is not solely concerned with reserves.

Production capacity and demand is what would be most important.
WHile there is a HUGE amount of CSG being proven, I doubt projected production capacity will flood the market.

I would imagine there will be a fair amount of substitution going from oil to gas too, so it wouldnt merely be a matter of increasing demand for energy.

It is all just speculation though.
Anyone got access to the numbers on projected demand vs production capacity?

Huang Chung

31-05-2009, 12:50 AM

I guess the equation is not solely concerned with reserves.

Production capacity and demand is what would be most important.
WHile there is a HUGE amount of CSG being proven, I doubt production capacity will flood the market.

I guess that is one of the points I'm trying to make. What chance is there of STX or CTP getting large amounts of gas to market, for example....will the majors have pretty much cornered the LNG export market throught the development of the Gladstone hub?

I'm also not a huge believer in the majors necessarily making all the right moves. Chevron have a reputation for overpaying for assets. RIO bought Alcan at the top of the market for what can only be considered dubious reasons, and BHP have made some absolute clankers in recent years...remember Magna Copper, Beenup mineral sands, the HBI plant in WA and Ravensthorpe Nickel?

The Big Ease

31-05-2009, 01:42 AM

Ah ok. I get you.
Yes, but the export hub was only ever going to be accessed through majors.
I think the juniors never realistically expected to get to the stage of mass production and selling gas into the market.

As soon as they get close ie certified 2P, they are gobbled up by majors like BG who have supply contracts they need to meet. Bermuda has posted BG's obligations and I don't think they have enough CSG to meet them yet.

I would still expect a company with 2P or vast amounts of 3P (which is what Bow is aiming to do) will still be taken over.

This slump in energy consumption won't last very long in the overall scheme of things.
China and INdia continue to industrialise and the rest of the world continues to become more and more energy intensive.

Gas is good. buurrrrpp.

drillfix

31-05-2009, 03:04 AM

I think the juniors never realistically expected to get to the stage of mass production and selling gas into the market.

Not all true, there are some smaller players that will sell to or have a maybe lower scale of market but a market nontheless.

Meaning take CXY, Cougar for example, will distribute to a town of around 600.000 homes being KingRoy here in QLD north of brisbane.

May still be a little while yet but on the right track, or so it seems.

The Big Ease

31-05-2009, 05:41 AM

domestic prices < international prices.

the main game is exporting to Asia.

gazprom1

18-06-2009, 08:22 PM

Did anyone see the article in the Australian re Santos' deal with the Malaysians?? Looks positive to me for the whole CSG industry. Does anyone have a view on the implications for the likes of BOW/ VPE and other CSG exploration companies if 2 or 3 (Santos, BG, Shell, Conoco, etc) processing plants are built at Gladstone? I am thinking that if the demand is there the likes of BOW/ VPE (if they prove up their P2 reserves) could become takeover targets. Or do the big players have enough acreage of their own?

macduffy

18-06-2009, 08:35 PM

I'm sure that there's a fairly hefty takeover premium built into the SP's of the likes of BOW, VPE etc.
After all these are quite small companies and developing the gas after they discover it is an expensive business. At best they might JV with the likes of Shell ( as AOE have done) or STO, Exxon, BG etc - but I think more likely that they will follow the fate of Pure and receive an offer too good to refuse, if they can prove up enough CSG.

At least, that's what I'm hoping for!

Disc: Hold AOE, BOW.

gazprom1

18-06-2009, 09:21 PM

Pure was exceptional and here's hoping that the likes of BOW can prove up their CSG reserves. We are due an update from BOW so hope that will give the SP a lift. I think it is great that they are going to have several rigs going 24 hours a day shortly.

Huang Chung

19-06-2009, 12:22 AM

Santos - Petronas deal. Worth a read.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25654439-23634,00.html

drillfix

17-07-2009, 05:11 PM

Couldn't find the other Carbon Energy CNX thread anywhere so thought I would post it here.

First offtake agreement for a $2 Million for CNX ok for a start dont ya think?

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CNX&E=ASX&N=212014

Ketel One

18-07-2009, 11:29 AM

Interesting graph:

http://iforce.co.nz/i/4uujnls2.gif

Taken from Blue energy's london presentation- The first 15 pages are a good introduction to CSG in aus.

Link for presentation: http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/genera/files/companies/blue_energy_london_16_july_2009_presentation_.pdf

AMR

18-07-2009, 11:40 AM

Hi Ketel, there is a CSM index? Is there an ETF for it?

Ketel One

19-07-2009, 06:03 PM

Hi Ketel, there is a CSM index? Is there an ETF for it?

Hey AMR, I don't think so, from the text under that graph it looks like they just hand picked a bunch of CSM companies (including a bunch that have been taken out) to include in their 'index' so BUL would look good. Bit sneaky really, I shouldve looked at it more closely before posting!

macduffy

23-07-2009, 10:24 AM

This may have been posted before.

Good article on the csg scene in Australia.

http://www.ucg-gtl.com/files/Coal%20Seam%20Gas%20booms%20in%20eastern%20Austral ia%20ASEG%20Preview%20June%202009.pdf

dragonz

05-08-2009, 10:40 AM

Could some csg expert give me the low down on ajl.asx. please. :D

macduffy

05-08-2009, 01:20 PM

Could some csg expert give me the low down on ajl.asx. please. :D

I've followed AJL on and off for a few years but don't claim to be right up with the play here.
They are a big player in drilling, pipeline and other services for the CSG industry, amongst other activities and until a few months ago had CSG interests ( Gloucester Basin and Sydney Gas). They sold these for $293.5m, a sale that I suspect may have been prompted by the need to bolster their balance sheet. In any case it has left them in a sound net cash position. They claim to still have interests in 14 "energy plays" in Australia, North America and Europe but it's not clear exactly what or how valuable these interests are.
They announced a major profit downgrade in May so I'll wait to see what actual NPAT they can produce.

I'd be interested in others' views.

shasta

05-08-2009, 02:45 PM

Could some csg expert give me the low down on ajl.asx. please. :D

Dragonz

If you are after a mining service style company that is involved with CSG, then go no further than WDS. ;)

dragonz

05-08-2009, 08:45 PM

Dragonz

If you are after a mining service style company that is involved with CSG, then go no further than WDS. ;)

Thanks Shasta, The WDS chart look very good.

Huang Chung

05-08-2009, 08:52 PM

This announcement caught my eye.

Looks like it could be another conventional/CSG combo well in the Cooper Basin.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00975208

bermuda

06-08-2009, 12:28 AM

dragonz

06-08-2009, 08:21 AM

Why did it drop so much today?

yeah I noticed that KAR dropped a similar amount. Is there a link between these two companies?

airedale

12-08-2009, 05:58 PM

Interesting ship pic re the LNG trade. Shows how big the ships are. Bermuda had some figures about the number of such ships being built.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/08/uk_enl_1249994076/html/1.stm

trackers

18-08-2009, 08:58 AM

Arrow Energy up on Shell takeover rumours

Matt Chambers | August 18, 2009

Article from: The Australian (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/)
ARROW Energy rose almost 3 per cent yesterday following speculation that its Queensland coal-seam gas partner, Shell, was preparing a takeover bid to shore up reserves for its multi-billion-dollar Gladstone liquefied natural gas ambitions.
The speculation also took some of the wind out of the sails of Gladstone's smallest and most advanced liquefied gas proponent, LNG, which is counting on Arrow to supply a planned $US500 million ($611m) plant but is yet to sign a binding agreement.
Reports from London at the weekend said Shell, recently declared the world's biggest company, had made an unsuccessful $3 billion offer for Arrow.
The talks ended in a stalemate, but Shell was still interested and could return with a revised approach, a report said.
Shell is the least advanced of the energy giants that have converged on Gladstone with multi-billion-dollar plans to export Queensland's vast coal seam gas reserves as LNG.
Shell has the smallest coal seam gas reserves of the four big proponents after buying 30 per cent of Arrow's in-ground gas last year.
The sector has been one of the most active in the country for consolidation in the past couple of years as international majors, ConocoPhillips, BG Group and Petronas all secured their position in coal-seam gas through big acquisitions of ground or, in BG's case, when it swallowed its Queensland Gas, a local partner. Yesterday, Arrow shares ended 15c higher to $4.45, valuing the company at $3.2bn.
The stock is up more than 40per cent since July on a mix of takeover speculation, advances in LNG's plans and reserve upgrades.
LNG shares fell 6c to $1.10.
Arrow and Shell refused to comment on the reports.
Last week, Arrow said it had been in discussions about "potential change of control transactions" but had not received a takeover offer.
"The company is unaware as to whether any change of control proposal will be forthcoming," Arrow said in response to a stock exchange query amid speculation Shell and Petrochina were preparing to make a joint bid.
A source close to Arrow said a bid from Shell could not be ruled out, but that there was no indication that one was in the pipeline.
A more likely deal was Shell signing an agreement with Arrow to secure more CSG reserves, he said.
Shell plans to produce a 16 million tonnes a year plant but risks being left behind in any coming sector consolidation if it does not shore up reserves quickly.
New Shell chief executive Peter Voser visited Australia last week and plans to return in coming months.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25943050-36418,00.html

trackers

19-08-2009, 09:10 AM

Gas / Coal Seam Gas News

SNAP ANALYSIS: Huge gas deal warms China-Australia ties

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's economic relations with Australia appeared to warm up on Tuesday with news of a A$50 billion gas deal -- the biggest trade deal ever between the two nations -- but behind the smiles a welter of economic and political disagreements remain to be sorted out.
Australian Resources Minister Martin Ferguson flew to Beijing to unveil the liquefied natural gas supply deal between PetroChina (0857.HK (http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=0857.HK)) and Exxon (XOM.N (http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=XOM.N)), a partner in Australia's Gorgon gas project

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSTRE57H2H720090818
----

Origin Energy secures LNG plant site

ORIGIN Energy and its joint venture partner ConocoPhillips have rejoined the liquefied natural gas race -- which is intensifying in Queensland -- after securing a site to develop its plant.
The two companies, through their Australia Pacific LNG joint venture, were given the green light to develop their $35 billion liquefied natural gas project at Laird Point on Curtis Island, in Gladstone.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25949671-643,00.html

----

dragonz

19-08-2009, 09:26 AM

Gas / Coal Seam Gas News

SNAP ANALYSIS: Huge gas deal warms China-Australia ties

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSTRE57H2H720090818
----

Origin Energy secures LNG plant site
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25949671-643,00.html

----

I've been using the pullback to accumulate KAR. By far my biggest holding at the moment

Disc. Hold NPX, KAR, JGL

KentBrockman

25-08-2009, 12:05 AM

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,,25970676-643,00.html

Interesting article about the extent of investment in Australian gas in the immediate future.

I would venture a guess that we'll have a massive over supply within 5-7 years and with it pressure on prices.

On top of that, perhaps, the whole global warming / CO2 boogieman stuff may be busted by then, leading to a revival of coal as the cheapest source of energy with plentiful supply.

Time will tell, I may be wrong. But it's a possibility.

tobo

25-08-2009, 08:01 AM

[url]...global warming / CO2 boogieman stuff may be busted by then, ....

do you mean that all that melting ice might suddenly freeze again?

or do you just mean that amid climate change people will just burn the coal anyway, on the beleif that it just doesn't make it any worse?

KentBrockman

25-08-2009, 11:04 AM

do you mean that all that melting ice might suddenly freeze again?

....

Read my post again, I said it's a possibility. From what I understand the earth climate has been cooling in the last 11 years.

Anyway, the point of my post wasn't so much to discuss the merits of AGW, but more a potential oversupply of lng in the mid term future (in tune with the purpose of this web site :) )

Ketel One

02-09-2009, 11:38 AM

Table of shortfall for proposed LNG facilities from BOW's latest presentation:
http://www.iforce.co.nz/i/3q4ekhwv.jpg

Huang Chung

08-09-2009, 10:37 PM

Woodside's Don Voelte's view on CSG....

http://www.eurekareport.com.au/iis/iis.nsf/lpages/RWIE-7N92AE?opendocument

MrDevine

08-09-2009, 10:47 PM

Nice bit of PR there for Woodside. I remember him ranting about CSG before. The economics do have to stack up, although surely Shell, Petronas and British Gas would have run these numbers?

Last line was interesting, "would you invest WPL funds in CSG?" "Never say never" says Don.

Mr D.

The Big Ease

09-09-2009, 12:27 AM

that's one guy against many global giants.

The weight of money says he is just spruiking his company and a good one at that.
But CSG is real. It is not a bubble, though a boom for sure.

mark100

09-09-2009, 12:39 AM

Voelte is probably half right. Sure, he has to talk up WPL but I also reckon CSG will have some technical issues along the way. New technology always does

Ketel One

09-09-2009, 09:07 AM

For a more optimistic view on the costs of CSG extraction have a read of: http://stockinterview.com/mitchell.html

(This guy is similarly biased, but in the opposite direction- he's the MD of a CSG drilling company, and also one of the directors of WCL.)

COLIN

09-09-2009, 09:36 PM

Woodside's Don Voelte's view on CSG....

http://www.eurekareport.com.au/iis/iis.nsf/lpages/RWIE-7N92AE?opendocument
I do realise that he is not exactly an unbiased witness but I do find comments of this nature, coming from someone of his standing, enough to reassess my exposure to CSG as opposed to LNG, and today I liquidated half my holding of VPEO which have been going nowhere for too long now.

macduffy

10-09-2009, 08:24 AM

I am no expert by any means. Spoke to adviser from AMRO CRAIGS before signing with ASB.He said said CSG is a bubble, only a third will survive, this was about 3 months ago.I did buy BUL about 2 weeks ago , crazy?Who knows ? Starting to look flash now! Karlos

And it may well be that a big proportion of the two thirds that "don't survive" will be taken over by the survivors. Those that actually find and prove economic CSG, that is.

I don't think that anyone doubts that there'll be a lot of rationalisation in the industry before the first LNG is produced from CSG.

;)

macduffy

10-09-2009, 02:09 PM

The market seems to be voting in favour of CSG today, eg AOE up 3.5% WPL up 1%.

;)

bermuda

12-10-2009, 11:16 AM

I am no expert by any means. Spoke to adviser from AMRO CRAIGS before signing with ASB.He said said CSG is a bubble, only a third will survive, this was about 3 months ago.I did buy BUL about 2 weeks ago , crazy?Who knows ? Starting to look flash now! Karlos

Karlos,
Ask your Broker/Adviser(?) to have a look at the LNG announcement this morning.

If he thinks CSG is a bubble, then it is time he sought a new job.

This CSG is going to be MASSIVE for Australia...and the world.

The secret is to buy the 2/3rds that wont survive...because most of them will get taken over at a premium.

newbietrader

12-10-2009, 02:42 PM

Comment from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard about energy esp Gas

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6299291/Energy-crisis-is-postponed-as-new-gas-rescues-the-world.html

COLIN

12-10-2009, 09:22 PM

Comment from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard about energy esp Gas

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6299291/Energy-crisis-is-postponed-as-new-gas-rescues-the-world.html

"By 2020.............."

"Don't know where excitement crosses to hyperbole........."

All a bit vague and full of fishooks.

The Big Ease

23-10-2009, 11:17 AM

mattyroo

23-10-2009, 04:55 PM

so which company is the most likely takeover?

The trend so far has been for companies with certification to get taken over. Potential has meant little without significant reserves.

ESG is likely
BOW almost there
MEL just doesn't seem to be loved at all.
VPE will sell off its CSG once BG get it all certified and will probably focus on its oil.

AOE is the nearest the finish line having already rejected an offer of 3bn.

I reckon BOW is a big possibility in the new year once it passes 100PJ 2P.
Hopefully some of the smaller companies like BUL and WCL don't shoot up too far before then.

There will be consolidation on the downstream side next, before anymore consolidation upstream - this is where all the big players attention is now. There is no way there will be 7 LNG plants in vicinity of Gladstone, as is currently proposed. With an 8th plant near Bowen.

Also, with the 20% reservation policy announced by the Queensland gummint, some of the smaller players are going to find it too difficult to get the funding.

Interesting few months ahead, there will be some popped bubbles and broken hearts in this sector before end of March next year.

The costs of getting this gas to the liquification stage are truly phenomenal, and some projects / companies will not exist next year. I know, I have been in the meetings with BG, Santos et al.

With them all (and the truly massive Gorgon) coming on stream within a short 2 year time period, the price will get severely depressed - the numbers will not stack up for some players. The only hope for them is to get taken over.

Brut

25-10-2009, 04:12 PM

Published in Eureka Report on October 16
Queensland’s gas grab
By Ivor Ries
PORTFOLIO POINT: Reserving a big portion of the state’s coal seam gas for the domestic market could snuff out the industry’s prospects.
Queensland’s coal seam gas fields – containing five times more gas than the Bass Strait ever held – are among the most important discoveries of natural resources in recent memory. They have the potential to deliver untold billions to investors through exports, and simultaneously secure our domestic energy needs for a decade. But if the Queensland government goes ahead with its Gas Reservation Policy, many projects may never get off the ground.
Last month the Bligh government released an innocuous looking 12-page document called the Blueprint for Queensland’s LNG Industry. It’s artfully put together pages talk of encouraging job growth, environmental responsibility and the half a dozen new committees that have been created to oversee the process. So far, so good.
Tucked away on page six it drops a bombshell. The government is considering reserving up to 20% of this gas for domestic use only. An idea so mind-bogglingly stupid that it may just stop the development of this rich resource dead in its tracks.
Right now in Brisbane there are teams of bankers being flown in from New York, Hong Kong, London and Singapore to crunch the numbers on these projects. To see if they can make the maths work on the projects from Arrow Energy, Santos/Petronas, Origin/ConocoPhilips, BG Group and Shell. To get off the ground the industry needs the high export gas prices that come from exporting LNG, but LNG projects only work with lots of debt provided by foreign banks.
You can just imagine the reaction of these overseas bankers: sovereign risk writ large. Currently one the biggest fears among foreign bankers about CSG-to-LNG is that some companies may have trouble converting their gas reserves into actual production due to technical problems, and therefore most banking syndicates will be demanding that the coal seam gas developers have up to two or three times the gas reserves they actually need to meet their LNG contracts. If 20% of their current reserves are “locked up” to provide cheap gas for domestic industries, some projects will clearly fall short of the gas they need to win financing.
What we are talking about is $80–100 billion in capital expenditure, 60 billion tonnes of LNG per annum and about 40,000 jobs. In terms of taxes collected by the Queensland Treasury, the worst-case scenario is probably about $1.8 billion a year. But that’s not enough. Premier Anna Bligh has waltzed off the set of Celebrity MasterChef and decided to put a new spin on a recipe made popular by Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez (see Risky businesses).
These things don’t just happen. A reasonable person would have to suspect that there has been some fairly intense lobbying going on behind the scenes. With eight projects in various stages of development there’s a huge amount of gas coming out of the ground. All the big gas users such as Incitec-Pivot, Wesfarmers, CSR, Boral and the three big power generators are able to buy it at the current rates of about $3 a gigajoule and bank big profits. Once the rest of them come on stream and start selling it overseas that price is going to roughly double to $6 a gigajoule.
There’s a lot of intimidation and bullying going on. The big gas buyers are trying to lock in these cheaper prices for years into the future and the producers are resisting. They claim that the newer gas projects are never going to get off the ground, lean on the smaller producers and say, ‘You’re going to have to sign a 10 year contract at less than $3 a gigajoules, take it or leave it.’
l l l l
It’s not the first time a state government has put the screws on the gas industry. In WA they’ve reserved 15% of the gas, but they had the common sense to wait until the industry was up and running, generating billions a year in profits. Queensland doesn’t have a mature gas industry and because there are doubts about the economics of coal seam gas. This push has just added a whole new element of risk to the equation.
Another difference between the WA and Queensland projects is the multiplier effect. The WA projects are offshore. Take a look at Gorgon: it’s run by big oil multinationals such as Chevron, Shell and Exxon Mobil, and the vast majority of the goods and services used in building offshore projects come from overseas.
Because the Queensland projects are onshore, most of the field development and LNG plant construction will be Australian companies using Australian people and Australian components, which is why it’s all the more important that these projects go ahead.
The big gas players can’t really believe what they’re hearing. They are just kind of stunned. They knew the government would jack up the gas royalty rate somewhere down the track, but to do it when most of them are trying to get a final investment decision from a group of gunshy bankers beggars belief.
And the money men, well, if you’ve just dropped $5 billion on subprime you’re not going to be especially keen to drop another few billion on a project because a government on the other side of the world has a change of heart.
No decision has been finalised but it is expected soon. At that point it will have to go to cabinet. If you have high hopes for growth in the Australian gas sector then this should be on your radar.
Queensland has a god-given opportunity to ride a 20 year energy boom. Heads of agreement have been signed for an opportunity that could add two or three percentage points to the state’s GDP. It’s a brave and foolish assumption that reserving 20% of this gas won’t affect the viability of these projects and is a real ‘Let them eat cake’ moment from the Bligh government. u
Ivor Ries is head of research at EL&C Baillieu Stockbroking. He may have interests in any of the stocks mentioned.

bermuda

25-10-2009, 06:38 PM

Huang Chung

25-10-2009, 07:01 PM

Queensland thermal coal is black coal, Bermuda. Not as bad environmentally as brown coal, which is mainly in Victoria. Even so, we can expect to see more gas fired power stations in future.

The poop here about 12 months ago was that our domestic gas prices were going to go sky high, to around parity with what the export price would be. Reserving a portion of the gas for domestic use would eliminate that pricing pressure in the domestic market.

mattyroo

26-10-2009, 08:42 AM

Brut,
Storm in a tea cup. The 20% cap for Queensland makes good sense particularly as Rudd will be backing out brown coal for CSG in the eastern board power stations.

There is plenty of gas there. It just has to be proven.

Bermuda, You don't get it... Or perhaps you do, and you are just trying to spin it so your "followers" believe you.

With a reservation policy of 20%, the funding is going to be difficult, nary impossible for some players to secure - simply because the numbers will not stack up.

The problem is the amount of capital required just to get the gas from wellhead to the liquification plant. Do you actually realise what is being talked about here and the costs of this?

Hundreds of compressors (and associated infrastructure - remember any produced water also has to be re-injected) all running on electric power, as they will not get consent to have them running on nat gas...
But, (yes, it is a big but) the electrical distribution network does not exist, and also needs to be built, and it has to be all underground!!! Ever costed running an underground cable from your house to your outside sh**ter? And these are talking about thousands of kilometres of underground MV / HV cable!

The expense of just getting this gas to the coast is going to kill some of these projects, and Bligh has only made it worse with her 20% reservation policy

bermuda

26-10-2009, 11:06 AM

Mattyroo,
Of course there are huge problems to be overcome. This is a world first. But the energy value of this resource is truly gigantic. And there are enormous reserves yet to be proven up.

For those interested in the technology please read the LNG report and for an insight on what is happening read the latest AOE Annual Report report. I dont hold any LNG or AOE, preferring to stick with the 'minnows' who have large upside due to their location and/or partnership with Major players.

The USA faced all these problems. CSG now supplies over 15% of the USA gas demand. And internationally the world is gearing up for a huge increase in LNG shipments. Our oil fields are declining at 6.7% per annum and the Asian countries urgently need secure stable energy supply.

I am not concerned about the Queensland Govt wanting 20%. It makes sense. There is a lot of brown coal burnt in the Eastern Australian Power plants. Gradually it will be phased out and replaced with CSG.

NoVice

26-10-2009, 11:42 AM

Hundreds of compressors (and associated infrastructure - remember any produced water also has to be re-injected) all running on electric power, as they will not get consent to have them running on nat gas...
But, (yes, it is a big but) the electrical distribution network does not exist, and also needs to be built, and it has to be all underground!!! Ever costed running an underground cable from your house to your outside sh**ter? And these are talking about thousands of kilometres of underground MV / HV cable!

I've got a mate working for one of the Queensland drilling companies & he said they are experimenting with drilling (really) deep wells to the hot lower levels. The idea is to inject the water down these wells to create a geothermal power supply. Maybe they can also use the steam to produce distilled water ??? I haven't been interested enough to check the viability / reliability of this info but someone on this site might be up with the play.

Financially dependant

26-10-2009, 10:04 PM

Bermuda, You don't get it... Or perhaps you do, and you are just trying to spin it so your "followers" believe you.

With a reservation policy of 20%, the funding is going to be difficult, nary impossible for some players to secure - simply because the numbers will not stack up.

The problem is the amount of capital required just to get the gas from wellhead to the liquification plant. Do you actually realise what is being talked about here and the costs of this?

Hundreds of compressors (and associated infrastructure - remember any produced water also has to be re-injected) all running on electric power, as they will not get consent to have them running on nat gas...
But, (yes, it is a big but) the electrical distribution network does not exist, and also needs to be built, and it has to be all underground!!! Ever costed running an underground cable from your house to your outside sh**ter? And these are talking about thousands of kilometres of underground MV / HV cable!

The expense of just getting this gas to the coast is going to kill some of these projects, and Bligh has only made it worse with her 20% reservation policy

I would be interested in you expanding on your post, How much does oil need to be to make it worth while mattyroo?

macduffy

28-10-2009, 08:29 AM

A plug for natural gas from the transmission industry spokesperson.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26269382-5005200,00.html

Huang Chung

29-10-2009, 09:27 PM

Attached is an Eastern Star Gas presentation, released today, that has some good general info and a map of the east coast CSG permits.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ESG&E=ASX&N=570680

mattyroo

30-10-2009, 08:21 AM

I would be interested in you expanding on your post, How much does oil need to be to make it worth while mattyroo?

I am not sure what oil is going to have to be worth... To a certain extent the LNG and oil market are quite unrelated, as their consumption is by different end users - consumer vs. industry. Even the industry that uses oil, is in reality still dependent on the consumer, however the use of gas is not swayed so much by consumer trends.

The HH price for gas has been even more volatile than the oil price this year, with swings of 150% in under a month.

My biggest concern with the LNG, is the effect that this potentially huge amount of extra supply, that is to come to the market, what it will do to already volatile prices. Most of the LNG that is used in Asia now comes from the ME and Indonesia. By having a huge new pool from a close trading partner with low sovereign risk will be desirable to the Asian consumers, but will they be willing to pay a premium? It is more likely that there will be a bloodbath between suppliers to get the contracts - and that can only mean one thing - lower prices.

Even BP went on the go-slow earlier this year with commissioning of a new LNG plant as prices were not attractive - this is unheard of in the industry.

Bermuda is right, that this is a huge resource, but he keeps either missing or sidestepping the pertinent point of the costs to get this gas to market. Yes, some of the big projects, such as BG, Petronas / Santos, will go ahead, but some of the smaller are sure to not go ahead.

Even COP have come out this week and said they are slashing investment and selling assets. One wonders what this means for their plans in Australia.

What I have seen of LNG Limited, I would not go near them with a barge pole, yet Bermuda is still raving about them. I suggest you dig a bit deeper and understand the realities (or should I say the non-realities) of their project.

bermuda

30-10-2009, 10:26 AM

Mattyroo,
What do think of the Directors and major shareholders?. Arrow are there at 10%.

I rate Nick Davies from Arrow big time.

shasta

30-10-2009, 01:17 PM

Mattyroo,
What do think of the Directors and major shareholders?. Arrow are there at 10%.

I rate Nick Davies from Arrow big time.

LNG basically have the Fisherman's Landing site & thats it.

I would expect Shell at some stage to be more involved because LNG's main shareholder & Arrow aren't going to do it alone.

mark100

30-10-2009, 02:18 PM

I have always been wary of LNG Ltd. They only have a MOU to purchase gas off AOE. What if AOE gets bought out before a binding sales agreement is signed? LNG Ltd will have no gas. I also don't like the sound of non-conventional membrane tanks etc. New/different ideas usually suffer delays/cost over runs or don't work as they're supposed to.

bermuda

31-10-2009, 09:06 AM

NoVice

31-10-2009, 10:43 AM

Blue Energy followers will be interested to see the world customer demand profile. Korean Oil and Gas tops the list. Kogas has taken a 10% interest in Blue Energy ( BUL ). Some very big things are going to happen to BUL.

Bermuda,

BUL state that they see ATP813P specifically as a source for supply to Kogas & accordingly are investigating laying a pipeline to either Abbots Point or Gladstone. EWC are also investigating laying a pipe from their Eromanga (ATP549P) field to Abbots Point to feed their proposed modular LNG train there. If their pipeline goes in a straight line it will go right through 813P.
What are the chances of some collaboration on this - do you know ??? Do these companies work together or not ?

cheers

NoVice

Discl. Hold EWC looking at BUL

bermuda

31-10-2009, 11:01 AM

clearasmud

31-10-2009, 10:17 PM

Bermuda,
Do you have a link to that report?
Cheers,

The latest BG report ( 78 pages ) makes very interesting reading.

World demand needs 70 mtpa new LNG supply by 2011. And another 150 mtpa by 2020.

Pages 33-44 give a background to BG's commitment to QCLNG.

Blue Energy followers will be interested to see the world customer demand profile. Korean Oil and Gas tops the list. Kogas has taken a 10% interest in Blue Energy ( BUL ). Some very big things are going to happen to BUL.

Watch out for all CSG companies to really take off once the first FEED gets approved.

bermuda

01-11-2009, 12:29 AM

Bermuda,
Do you have a link to that report?
Cheers,

Hi Clearasmud,

Google www.bg-group.com/ then Investor Relations , then 2009 Strategy Presentation ( PDF ).

I only got the transcript. Well worth a read. In fact it is worth a great deal of study because if you understand every page then you will realise the significance of Queensland/ Gladstone LNG....as I am sure you do.

Just have to be patient and wait for the first FEED approval. That will be a big day.

clearasmud

01-11-2009, 11:46 AM

Thanks for that and your very generous input Bermuda.
Cheers,

The Big Ease

02-11-2009, 01:15 AM

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article6898015.ece

The Big Ease

03-11-2009, 05:12 AM

Anyone have a list of CSG minnows ie less than 150m market cap?

seaosh

03-11-2009, 08:57 AM

BUL, STX and VPE all have market caps of below 150m. BOW is a little larger at near twice that.

The Big Ease

03-11-2009, 11:30 AM

cheers seaosh.

Already onto BUL and VPE.
I thought STX was an oil company.

btw,

origin going hard with the PR: http://mumbrella.com.au/origin-energy-launches-four-minute-tv-ad-10978

4 minute tv commercial.

mark100

03-11-2009, 12:35 PM

WCL has a MC of $50m with almost $20m cash from memory. But I wouldn't be buying unless they can make a clear break of the resistance in the mid-high 50s

ECU has a MC $40m and around $8m in the bank plus some cash flow positive coal mines. AGL has paid a fair bit to farm into some of their ground.

Both have made me good coin in the past but not holding either atm

seaosh

03-11-2009, 02:10 PM

I thought STX was an oil company.

They have producing US gas assets (plus three drills coming in the next month or two), but they also have potential CSG in the Southern Copper Basin (drilling starting this month).

CAM

13-11-2009, 09:01 AM

Caltex looking at LNG production

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/caltex-looking-at-lng-production/story-e6frg9ef-1225797126819?from=public_rss

Huang Chung

13-11-2009, 12:58 PM

Caltex looking at LNG production

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/caltex-looking-at-lng-production/story-e6frg9ef-1225797126819?from=public_rss

You would think Metgasco would be an obvious beneficiary, with their Lions Way pipleine running from Northern NSW to SE Qld.

http://www.metgasco.com.au/files/lionsway_pipeline_brochure.pdf

pedro.nz

14-11-2009, 04:49 PM

Excerpt from 'The Australian'...
THE Queensland government has decided against declaring that a set percentage of the natural gas to be produced in the state must be dedicated for domestic use, deciding instead that whole gasfields are likely to be reserved for such usage. Western Australia has reserved 10 per cent of the liquid natural gas output of the North West Shelf for domestic use, and the Bligh government in Queensland caused some drama in the industry when it proposed that 20 per cent of output be reserved for domestic use.

However, Queensland has instead decided to set aside some specified future gasfields for domestic supply if needed, instead of requiring a percentage of gas from all fields to go to domestic supply.
The policy would not apply to gasfields already owned by gas suppliers, and would work by requiring the proposed gas commissioner to specify that certain gasfields could only be used for domestic use.

Liquid natural gas is set to be exported from Queensland from 2014. It has the potential to be a big export earner for the state. But with energy costs set to rise, it could also be an important low-cost energy alternative to coal.

Elements of the federal government were upset with the Queensland proposal for a 20 per cent limit, arguing that it could turn away foreign investment.

drillfix

20-11-2009, 01:09 PM

Guys, whats up with this UCG/CSG sector, its like its fallen a sleep.

Any ideas to when it will fully awaken?

macduffy

20-11-2009, 01:12 PM

Guys, whats up with this UCG/CSG sector, its like its fallen a sleep.

Any ideas to when it will fully awaken?

Not entirely.

Have a look at BOW. New reserves update today, SP up 6c to $1.40.

;)

drillfix

20-11-2009, 05:03 PM

Not entirely.

Have a look at BOW. New reserves update today, SP up 6c to $1.40.

;)

Your right there Macduff,

It probably just me having my own hands tied to a bunch of Specks with big plans.

Ah well, may I should re-phrase my post and say "whats up with all the Speck UCG/CSG sector, its like its fallen a sleep" :D :rolleyes:

drillfix

01-12-2009, 04:58 PM

Not entirely.

Have a look at BOW. New reserves update today, SP up 6c to $1.40.
;)

Why look at it then, I like looking at it now near $1.30 :p

Kinda looks like it wants to bounce off $1.25 spp and then onwards.

MacDuff, whats up with this sector mate and anybody else feel when a recovery could be on the cards at all?

macduffy

01-12-2009, 06:15 PM

I reckon the CSG story has run a bit hard and needs a pause. Simple as that.

Plus the fact that NHC (Soul Patts really) has announced that it wants out of its shareholding in AOE.

I hold AOE and BOW.

:cool:

drillfix

01-12-2009, 06:30 PM

Run a bit hard perhaps, but there appear to be many CSG/UCG stocks including juniors which have pulled back in a big way and cooled off totally.

I only hold some Juniors and IMO, Im getting my @ss kicked.

ie: CGV, CXY, LBY

Maybe I should have bought WTF :eek: :rolleyes: or then LOL :p :rolleyes:

Usually thats when you go Argghhhh then dump the Fn things and suddenly it Totally Takes off on you and you then would have doubled your money had you stayed put.

Or at least thats what happens for me.

Huang Chung

03-12-2009, 01:03 AM

An article from The Australian last week on New Hope Coal putting a 'for sale' sign on their stake in Arrow.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/story/0,1,26403873-36418,00.html

drillfix

03-12-2009, 01:26 AM

Hi Huang, I guess that links explains quite a bit as too MacDuff's post and basically in short means, there is a negative spin fallen on the sector, and if the sector goes Neg, so do most of the stocks.

Now wondering if I should lick my wounds and bail on some of these, although, CXY next around Feb 10 lighting there pilot for their little power station project so the tune by then could be different yet again for the sector as a whole, who knows.

In flavour, out of flavour, then back in etc etc. Arrghhh, frustrating.

I gotta stop being emotional about any of this cr@p and just trade the trades that are there to be traded. Its taking time, but I am getting there, slowly, but surely~!

Huang Chung

03-12-2009, 01:40 AM

Hi Drilly

Not that they haven't made some bad calls in their time, but you would have to say the Millners have proven to be pretty astute investors over the decades.

They certainly appear to think the party is nearly over, and its probably time to leave, at least as far as Arrow is concerned. Question is whether they can entice Shell, or someone else to pick up their stake in AOE for a premium, presumably as part of an overall takeover bid for the company.

drillfix

03-12-2009, 02:52 AM

Funny way to try to get a company to take over another company though don't think.

Kinda sounds like, buy these shares at a premium or else they will be sold off and crash the company which means you can buy them at a discount once they have crashed.

(and also potentially devaluing the whole sector at the same time) :eek: :mad: :rolleyes:

add edit:

I see: http://www.smh.com.au/business/soul-patts-puts-arrow-stake-on-the-block-20091125-jrss.html

macduffy

03-12-2009, 08:34 AM

Bear in mind that Shell has a 30% interest in AOE's "upstream gas tenements" but doesn't have an actual shareholding in AOE.

Soul Patts' move to sell their shareholding creates tension in that it provides an opportunity for a new major shareholder for the 70% of AOE's gas and prospects - arguably a more attractive proposition than just owning 30% of the gas! If you follow my drift!

;)

sharer

03-12-2009, 03:47 PM

...
Now wondering if I should lick my wounds and bail on some of these, although, CXY next around Feb 10 lighting there pilot for their little power station project so the tune by then could be different yet again for the sector as a whole, who knows....

Still hanging in there with you on CXY Drillfix. Just have to resist temptation to cash out every time sp bumps up a bit. Especially as it keeps sliding down again to near entry sp:cool:. If it goes more or less according to plan next Feb a fairly profitable business seems reasonably likely. Hopefully one day we'll look back & say "Sexy CXY! - why didn't we get more while they were cheap?"

LMP is another minor spec interest for Southland refugees (though i don't like their tentative plan to make urea - NZ needs a lot less of this, not more).

drillfix

03-12-2009, 05:13 PM

Hi again sharer,

Yes mate the temptation is certainly there and I will do my best to hold for the burn but I start getting nervous when the SPP level starts to become tested.

The Stochastic is nearly crossing and will start to move up in another day so hopefully tomorrow we will get a rebound (or monday onwards).

Although, we need more volume, we ned the MACD to get positive and the RSI to get is @ss in gear but that aint gonna happen unless we get some that mass wave of volume again.

Alot of stocks in the same boat atm.

A friend of mine had told me about LMP, new direction I guess, but atm, I think I need less CSG/UCG and more Profitable Anything :rolleyes: ATM

Hope all your other stocks are treating you well~!

drillfix

03-12-2009, 06:21 PM

Hey sharer, can you do me a favour mate, I cant post on HC, however would you be kind enough to post for me in the LBY thread? Just wanted to know WTF is going on and whats with the HUGE falls from previous highs? Besides the fact that it looks like a Technical basket case and the sector being up the sh#t,

If Liberty (LBY) falls past 12 cents its back to 8 then 6 or 5c to where ever it came from and to me, that would be extremely disappointing

macduffy

07-12-2009, 08:41 AM

Adele Ferguson of the SMH comments on the state of the industry.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/coal-seam-gas-must-prove-its-real-worth-20091206-kcu1.html

Worth a read.

:cool:

bermuda

07-12-2009, 09:12 AM

Adele Ferguson of the SMH comments on the state of the industry.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/coal-seam-gas-must-prove-its-real-worth-20091206-kcu1.html

Worth a read.

:cool:

CSG stocks have take a pause. Make sure you are fully invested before th first FID gets approval. Probably 1Q2010.

airedale

07-12-2009, 12:29 PM

This news item is about WA gas, but clearly there is a good market for it.http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bn-natural-gas-deal-with-japan/story-e6frg8zx-1225807511012

sharer

07-12-2009, 06:53 PM

Hey sharer, can you do me a favour mate, I cant post on HC, however would you be kind enough to post for me in the LBY thread? ...If Liberty (LBY) falls past 12 cents its back to 8 then 6 or 5c to where ever it came from and to me, that would be extremely disappointing

Sorry i wasn't any help Drillfix. Had to go off to entertain the medicos again & submit to the vampires' demands. Just back & found yr msge. I don't know anything about Liberty, but see LBY this afternoon around 12.5, very few trades. Hope this indicates you're not yet in the swamps of despair.

Actually i've never been to HC either; someone posted a link once but due to lack of time i didn't go there & now i've lost the address.
Best - Sh.

drillfix

07-12-2009, 07:37 PM

Ahhh no worries Sharer, no problems

Yeah I got myself a few LBY's a short while back.

I just dont know what goes on in my head sometimes. Think I will need to slap myself on the back of the head and start thinking and working to a plan than be daydreaming out there in LaLa land.

Sorry, just a self confession that I need to brush up on. lol

The Big Ease

15-12-2009, 03:50 AM

big news.

EDIT: EXXon takeover XTO for 31billion US.

Is Gas, is Good.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSLS5tbhG9xc&pos=1

Corporate

15-12-2009, 06:31 AM

big news.

Chevron takeover XTO for 31billion US.

Is Gas, is Good.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSLS5tbhG9xc&pos=1

WOW - thanks TBE. That is big money going into GAS.

bermuda

15-12-2009, 07:49 AM

The latest BG report ( 78 pages ) makes very interesting reading.

World demand needs 70 mtpa new LNG supply by 2011. And another 150 mtpa by 2020.

Pages 33-44 give a background to BG's commitment to QCLNG.

Blue Energy followers will be interested to see the world customer demand profile. Korean Oil and Gas tops the list. Kogas has taken a 10% interest in Blue Energy ( BUL ). Some very big things are going to happen to BUL.

Watch out for all CSG companies to really take off once the first FEED gets approved.

Thanks for that news about Exxon.Same goes for British Gas as per above report.
It is confirmation that Gas/CSG/LNG will become a transition fuel over the next 20-30 years until alternatives can replace oil depletion. And then add on in the global warming/Copenhagen effect and you have a recipe for very strong gas demand coming up..

drillfix

15-12-2009, 12:11 PM

Does anybody know Exactly where there is a Chart of the actual CSG Sector?

Anybody??

The Big Ease

15-12-2009, 10:25 PM

Thanks for that news about Exxon.Same goes for British Gas as per above report.
It is confirmation that Gas/CSG/LNG will become a transition fuel over the next 20-30 years until alternatives can replace oil depletion. And then add on in the global warming/Copenhagen effect and you have a recipe for very strong gas demand coming up..

Gas is in the sweet spot for the future, that is for sure.

the FID on the LNG trains is really a red herring. That is not a decision on the viability of CSG, rather the economics of getting it out of the country.

CSG has been around long enough and it would seem the technology has improved significantly over the last 5 years.

What we should be concerned about is the demand for gas and there is no doubt it is going to boom.

Just my thoughts...How do you guys see it?

Huang Chung

15-12-2009, 10:39 PM

My concern would be that there is potentially so much gas out there, that the price received might not be that attractive (should projects manage to get up in the first place). Look at how CSG is now being looked at in places like China and India....and, because the gas would be extracted and used locally, gas doesn't have to go through the LNG process. Also look at the big conventional gas projects, off WA and in New Guinea for example.

Now it looks like central Australia might be awash with CSG as well.

Demand might be strong in the decades ahaead, but so it seems will be supply.

Financially dependant

15-12-2009, 10:53 PM

Demand might be strong in the decades ahead, but so it seems will be supply.

And there lies the nub of the matter....The supply of oil is reducing and it can be replaced by gas...the question is at whats rates????

Huang Chung

15-12-2009, 11:14 PM

bermuda

15-12-2009, 11:57 PM

There are just so many variables FD...rate of increase in energy demand, rate at which gas replaces coal, how big will the nuclear slice be, what global warming protocols will be established, rate of decline in oil, rate that gas replaces oil, rate of hybrid car penetration etc, etc.

HC,
You have hit the nail on the head. And that is why we all follow this energy scene so closely. It has so many variables..it is more complicated than chess. Rightly or wrongly I have always thought that China and India would see the world out of this recession/depression. I still think they will and I was comforted to read Matt Simmons 90 page report on China published back in 1997. I read it during the weekend and it gave me the feeling that this China engine has only just ignited. And then I read the Arrow reports...and the Santos reports..and the British Gas reports. These guys are serious planners and they are well aware of this huge energy demand from China against a scenario of oil production dropping at about 6.7 % per annum.
China must reduce its reliance on coal. In fact it has to because the 'sweet' black coal is running out and they have to replace it with stoney brown coal. I really urge posters to read that report. It explains a lot about the Chinese psyche and its huge demand for energy. They are master planners and have secured their position globally with many partners some of which used to be freindly with the USA.

Please read the last 5 pages if you cant find the time to read the lot.. We need to build energy bridges otherwise we will end up in military uniforms.

If China reduces their percentage use of coal against an increase in their energy demand then we havent even started to find enough gas to satisfy their demand. From memory they have 3 LNG terminals and are planning for about a dozen more.

The recent Exxon move to buy into Gas is is a step they have to make to increase their energy reserves. And I am mindful that they will be targetting shale gas which is starting to boom in the USA but which only makes up 30% of XTO's production.

Gas will become a transitional fuel and whilst there is talk of a current glut, when all these variables pan out we will need all the gas we can get our hands on. Plus I havent really touched on its 'clean' image. Anyhow this is a bit of a late night ramble but if you have the time read that Simmons report from 1997. He is quite insightful.

Huang Chung

16-12-2009, 12:08 AM

From what I can tell Bermuda, exports of coal from the East Coast of Australia will be increasing in the decades ahead, not decreasing, and a large chunk of this will be heading to China.

snowball

16-12-2009, 01:00 AM

From what I can tell Bermuda, exports of coal from the East Coast of Australia will be increasing in the decades ahead, not decreasing, and a large chunk of this will be heading to China.

HC,
Good discussion here. That's one of the problems with the ETS. The coal producers are to get paid to keep on producing ... for a while.
Gas, where abundance can be determined, which is being proved up, must logically take over when you start getting pragmatic about climate change issues.
Interestingly, when it comes to CSG, apparently it is getting better. I recently read some information released by a company called Transol (TNC). The reckon they have access to a bio means of increasing CSG returns by tenfold by a biogenic methane process (and keeps the water underground rather than requiring this to be extracted). Read up about it. It is interesting.
Be careful though, TNC is linked with RER and it is two directors, Brett Cooper and Rohan Gillespie who have given themselves some pecuniary advantage via royalties.
The process is UCTL (underground coal to liquids).
I have only just read about this and have no holding, but interesting. I do smell a bit of a rat. The royalties to be taken by Cooper and Gillespie are too high. There is a big smell of opportunism. Anyway, it seems to all be developing. There will likely be extreme pressure globally to convert from coal to gas (and nuclear). If you want to go and investigate Antarctica, don't wait too long.
As a non voting Kiwi in Aus I have no bias over politics here but in climate change, politics seems rife.
Anyway, that's my 2 bobs worth.

bermuda

16-12-2009, 08:28 AM

From what I can tell Bermuda, exports of coal from the East Coast of Australia will be increasing in the decades ahead, not decreasing, and a large chunk of this will be heading to China.

HC,
If you read the China report carefully you will note that whilst China's consumption of coal may increase the percentage of coal in their energy mix has to fall. That reducing percentage ( which constitutes a HUGE energy requirement ) will be made up from alternative energy forms of which LNG will be substantial.

That is why China are currently constructing and planning a large number of new LNG terminals.

That China report is very insightful. Well worth a read.

ps I changed my earlier post to emphasise that it is China's changing energy mix that will see coal percentage drop ...to be replaced by other energy forms...of which gas will play a huge part. Their coal usuage may in fact increase but its percentage of their energy mix will drop. Thanks for your comment

The Big Ease

16-12-2009, 09:29 AM

bermuda

16-12-2009, 10:43 AM

stephen bart makes comment on the xto takeover, csg and unconventional gas in aust.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Exxon-Mobil-XTO-CSG-Origin-energy-Beach-Petroleum--pd20091215-YR48V?OpenDocument&src=sph

Thanks TBE,
A very good perspective. Get as much acreage as you can is the name of the game. STX got some more yesterday and both BUL and WCL have entered the Galilee.

drillfix

16-12-2009, 03:17 PM

Guys, doesn't anybody know where to view charts on this Sector?

Bermuda, where do you view your charts, do you view charts?

Surely somebody views the sectors performance with charts?

macduffy

16-12-2009, 03:44 PM

Guys, doesn't anybody know where to view charts on this Sector?

Bermuda, where do you view your charts, do you view charts?

Surely somebody views the sectors performance with charts?

I don't know the answer, drillfix, but personally I'm not too keen on a sector chart in this instance.
While many of the component companies will be pure CSG plays, such as AOE and BOW - which I hold - others such as STO, ORG etc are not solely CSG companies but better described as o&g or just energy companies.

I suspect that they are all included in the ASX energy sector index?

Huang Chung

16-12-2009, 04:06 PM

Drilly, don't know it's what you're after, but you can make your own comparative charts on the ASX website.

drillfix

16-12-2009, 04:36 PM

HC I wish I could if I knew what the actual Code is.

So, I guess what Im saying is, is there a CSG index, with a CSG code?

Huang Chung

16-12-2009, 06:14 PM

As far s I'm aware, no there isn't.

The Big Ease

17-12-2009, 12:59 AM

drillfix

17-12-2009, 01:30 AM

go to google finance, enter the code of your favourite CSG co and then enter the codes of the other CSG companies you want to follow. You can keep track of them over whichever time period you would like.

That's about as close as you are likely to get.

Thanks TBE, it just might pay to do that. Although be it at a lot more work to add to a day.

Would be good to have a visible sector though, Im probably just surpised that there isn't one or one that can be identified more easily on a so called Market Map.

Ok new question, could anybody GUESS approx when they expect there to be a potential huge turnaround???

Because right now, things just aint really happening much, or at least from where Im viewing it.

The Big Ease

17-12-2009, 03:08 AM

nobody knows, otherwise they would've picked the SHG and PES takeovers and BOW's magnificent run from January this year.

There are some big grumblings in the gas sector though with tens of billions of money from the big boys going on the table. That should be your cue that things are about to happen. When? well no point guessing, just get your seat at the table.

BOW is uniquely positioned in the CSG sector with enormous upside and if it can just slip the net of an early takeover, it might well become the next Arrow.

Management have become unusually bullish in their announcements and have recently doubled their 3P targets for 2010.

There are a few other more speculative ones too like WCL, BUL and potentially AZO.

bermuda

17-12-2009, 10:20 AM

Thanks TBE, it just might pay to do that. Although be it at a lot more work to add to a day.

Would be good to have a visible sector though, Im probably just surpised that there isn't one or one that can be identified more easily on a so called Market Map.

Ok new question, could anybody GUESS approx when they expect there to be a potential huge turnaround???

Because right now, things just aint really happening much, or at least from where Im viewing it.

Drillfix,
I dont use charts that much but I have learnt so much from Phaedrus. We should pay him for his services. It would be good to have a CSG sector chart but not overly fussed.

What I am waiting for is the first FID approval. About mid 2010. CSG is a bit dead at the moment due to
1.Continual over exposure of drilling results...people get tired of the same old thing. Even if there have been some stunning announcements lately.
2.No MAJOR announcements lately although the Exxon news to me was signigficant.
3.Negative reports from Voelte of WPL. Quite important.
4.Negative 'talk' of companys pulling out of Gladstone.
5.Talk of a gas glut. These people dont know the full story
6.Environmental issues etc etc.

There has been a huge amount of work put in by the majors in preparation for Gladstone. When the first one gets fully ticked off that is when we will see some action. And before they can get these projects ticked off remember that you have to convince the London's of the world that you have adequate long term supply. So watch out for significant M&A activity.

Got to be patient in this game. A wonderful time to get set.

Phaedrus

17-12-2009, 10:59 AM

Drillfix, many charting programs such as MetaStock provide the facility to set up "composite" securities and make your own index. You could simply add all CSG stock prices and plot that, for example, or plot the average of all CSG stock % rises/falls.

Another approach would be to overlay plots of all CSG stocks in the same window. This would give a good overview of the sector in a single chart.

If you use IncredibleCharts, an easy option would be to set up a separate watchlist comprising all CSG stocks. You could then very quickly scroll through the entire sector just by hitting a single button.

Any of these options would give you a quite adequate overview of the CSG sector.

Huang Chung

17-12-2009, 08:01 PM

AJ Lucas to sell 15% interest in ATP651 for $98.5m.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01023753

The Big Ease

17-12-2009, 08:06 PM

how much gas was certified?

bermuda

17-12-2009, 08:32 PM

AJ Lucas to sell 15% interest in ATP651 for $98.5m.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01023753

HC, this is extremely interesting. It appears that AJ Lucas has sold its 15% interest in ATP651 to Toyota and not QGC/BG. I wonder whether BG were given the chance to purchase or whether they got out trumped by Toyota?????

If it is the latter then BG must feel gutted. Someone mentioned to me a while ago to watch out for Asian companies bidding for such interests. Looks as though it is happening already. Bodes very well for the Industry. This to me is very big news...or have I got it wrong? Opinions please.

bermuda

17-12-2009, 08:36 PM

how much gas was certified?

TBE,
Would love to know the answer to your question. Do you think Toyota has outbid QGC/BG?

MrDevine

17-12-2009, 08:37 PM

bermuda

17-12-2009, 09:57 PM

QGC certifed 271PJ of 2P

http://www.energy.qld.gov.au/zone_files/coal_files_pdf/new_csg_cc.pdf

So that equals by my bad accounting, about $2.45GJ = total field approx $650m, please correct my maths.

Thats a good number for BOW, based on forecast 450PJ 2P by FY2010, equals $1.1b.

I think we should all remember that CSG has done extremely well considering global financial meltdown. My BOW is up 330%, can't go up in a straight line. Trading sideways I know you have an opportunity cost, but I can't be bothered paying tax by trading my stock.

Mr D holds.

Thanks for that Mr D. Your figures look okay to me . And it is happening right in front of our eyes! That puts BOW at $4.44 and that doesnt include the remaining 3P. Add that in at say 77 cents /GJ and BOW goes over $10... Staggering figures. And it will happen.

Of course we dont know the full details of the Toyota deal but if we use the AJ Lucas numbers as per the news release then we have an up to date figure of what an Asian company is prepared to pay.

kiwiwim

18-12-2009, 02:45 PM

Found the below link while surfing for ETP651. Although 2P data is almost a year old I found it good info as it shows all the majors in Queensland. Sorry did not know how to provide direct web linkage on this page

http://www.energy.qld.gov.au/zone_files/coal_files_pdf/new_csg_cc.pdf

kiwiwim

18-12-2009, 02:46 PM

Seems when you Post the linkage becomes live. Learned another thing on computer

drillfix

18-12-2009, 04:53 PM

Got to be patient in this game. A wonderful time to get set.

Thanks for the feedback bermuda, some good thoughts there, though finding it difficult to be patient with the sector as my funds are a bit spread too thin so its frustrating not having much dosh to spead.
.

Another approach would be to overlay plots of all CSG stocks in the same window. This would give a good overview of the sector in a single chart.

Thanks heaps Phaedrus!

Currently I dont have Metastock loaded on my machine at present but it is sure good to know the about the approaches you mention. Kinda like a BYO or a DYI index so to speak.

The Big Ease

19-12-2009, 10:00 AM

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091217-703052.html

Tokyo Gas chatting to Conoco Phillips

Lower calorific value, sure. But the rest is just positioning for negotiations. If it was really such a bother to do "a little more work" then they wouldn't go near it. Energy security is more important than "a little more work" and sure, they will get a slightly lower price for it.

bermuda

19-12-2009, 10:53 AM

QGC certifed 271PJ of 2P

http://www.energy.qld.gov.au/zone_files/coal_files_pdf/new_csg_cc.pdf

So that equals by my bad accounting, about $2.45GJ = total field approx $650m, please correct my maths.

Thats a good number for BOW, based on forecast 450PJ 2P by FY2010, equals $1.1b.

I think we should all remember that CSG has done extremely well considering global financial meltdown. My BOW is up 330%, can't go up in a straight line. Trading sideways I know you have an opportunity cost, but I can't be bothered paying tax by trading my stock.

Mr D holds.

Mr D,
Have been trying to track down exactly what AJ Lucas sold to Toyota. That report ( for which thanks ) of 271 2P was at the end of 2008 and didnt include any figures for 3P. Cant seem to get any further info. It may be that 271 2P was the final figure which is good news and equals your $2.45/Gj.

If anyone can find out the exact figures would be greatly appreciated.

Huang Chung

19-12-2009, 11:16 AM

Huang Chung

19-12-2009, 11:18 AM

I had this open as well...may be of interest.

http://www.energy.qld.gov.au/zone_files/coal_files_pdf/new_csg_cc.pdf

See ya :cool:.

MrDevine

19-12-2009, 01:16 PM

Hi Bermuda, thought that once 2P gas is certified, that 3P is irrelevant, ie: once the 3P numbers are converted to 2P (Proven Probable), the 2P number is the benchmark, before that is then superceded by 1P reserves?

Any which way, it would make sense to me if Toyota has paid $2.45 (2P PJ).

Ace, C.

Huang Chung

19-12-2009, 03:21 PM

Sorry Bermuda, got to head out for a few hours, but I managed to find this:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080731/pdf/31bgr9j9v0qws2.pdf

Maybe check the AJL announcements from July 2008 onwards to see if there are any updates to the reserves.

Gotta run....

From the above report, AJL's 15% of 2P is 39.6BCF, and their 15% of 3P is 120.8BCF (or three times their 2P)

15% 0f 271PJ is about 40.6PJ. Three times that would be 120PJ of 3P net to AJL.

bermuda

19-12-2009, 09:30 PM

From the above report, AJL's 15% of 2P is 39.6BCF, and their 15% of 3P is 120.8BCF (or three times their 2P)

15% 0f 271PJ is about 40.6PJ. Three times that would be 120PJ of 3P net to AJL.

HC/Mr D,
These P definitions always confuse me. I am sure that permits are rated by their P rating. Eg so many 2p BCF's at $2.45 and so many 3P GJ's at say 77 cents. Add the two together, divide by the numbers of shares and you have the value.I could be wrong.

But the beauty of even just looking at the 2P numbers is that BOW has a potential value ( if they get their 2010 targets ) of $4.40 per share.

Thanks for all your research.This is just so fascinating as it is so clear to see and the market are miles behind.

Huang Chung

19-12-2009, 11:00 PM

Hi Bermuda

Although I'm not in CSG, I still take an interest in the sector (as I do with many sectors on the ASX). Also, being a Brissy boy, all this CSG stuff is happening in my back yard, so to speak :rolleyes:.

I would suggest that an energy company saying they have x amount of 2P or 3P is not terribly different from a mining company saying its got 500,000 of copper in the ground. Having the resource is nice, but the value only happens when you work out how much its going to cost to extract and transport, both opex and capex. In the world of CSG, I'd imagine you would be looking at how many wells you have to drill, their depth, cost of water disposal, how much pumping/compressing of gas is required, and how far to the terminal.

To use the world of an old Castrol TV commercial.....oils ain't oils.

I apologise if this sounds like I'm telling you how to suck eggs (not my intention at all), but I guess my point is the value (ie what someone would be willing to stump up, or what the market might value it at) per PJ for one tenement is probably significantly different to the value per PJ in a different tenement.

bermuda

20-12-2009, 12:33 AM

trackers

22-12-2009, 09:19 PM

Check out ESG today guys...wow

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ESG&E=ASX&N=577812

bermuda

22-12-2009, 11:00 PM

Check out ESG today guys...wow

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ESG&E=ASX&N=577812

Trackers,
Good to see you last night at the Lone Star.

This is a very good result for ESG. Santos know what they are talking about. They even spelt it out in their Annual Report.

bermuda

22-12-2009, 11:08 PM

bermuda

04-01-2010, 01:44 PM

My feeling is that we are going to have a very 'hot' year for Coal Seam Gas. It is hotting up on day one with the news that AOE and LNG are getting their ducks in a straight line ready for takeoff. Imagine if we had our first FID in a few months!!

Still plenty of time to jump on board. CSG's importance and the Gladstone story is still largely unknown and in some cases even disbelieved. Most CSG stocks up today.

The Big Ease

06-01-2010, 08:42 AM

But Kloppers faces two other clear 2010 challenges. During the last two years the Rio Tinto deals have dominated the BHP strategic situation and curbed other acquisitions. As a result, BHP has built up a huge takeover war chest estimated to be between $35 billion and $40 billion. While having large sums of cash and borrowing capacity makes everyone feel good, the BHP balance sheet is starting to look flabby. During 2010, Kloppers will have a new chairman, Jac Nasser, who at Ford was keen on acquisitions. At BHP Nasser will be hard-nosed on takeovers, but Kloppers will need to have a series of takeover targets ready for consideration once the Rio Tinto deal is settled. At this stage BHP is looking hard at oil and gas acquisitions because it is bullish on long term oil prices. But Kloppers will also need to look at Africa where China is becoming more and more aggressive.

Could it be that BHP will move into CSG?

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/BHP-Billiton-Rio-Tinto-Marius-Kloppers-oil-iron-or-pd20100104-ZD8CB?OpenDocument&src=sph

The Big Ease

11-01-2010, 08:32 PM

sector strength in the new year.
What is driving it?

I would have thought the uncertainty leading up to the FID's would result in some weakness, not strength.

bermuda

11-01-2010, 10:00 PM

sector strength in the new year.
What is driving it?

I would have thought the uncertainty leading up to the FID's would result in some weakness, not strength.

TBE,
About 1/3 of the investing public think that CSG is a sham/bubble. Check out Voelte's statements ( Woodside CEO ) . He doesn't believe in it. Think about it. What does that tell the investors? It tells them to be nervous.

Get ready Australia. You are about to witness an energy change.

The thing that drove it was a little news from AOE/LNG a few days ago.

CSG, Fuel of the Future

The Big Ease

11-01-2010, 10:49 PM

shasta

11-01-2010, 11:23 PM

you are right B.

So far the bigger players have put more and more money on the table.

It's not that Voelte doesn't believe in it, moreso that he has better things to put his money on and he probably does too. However, he did leave the door ajar to invest in the sector in an interview last year.

There are alot of big players without any involvement in CSG. From gas customers to the BHPs and Woodsides. It could become a squeeze.

Interesting to not also that the guy from Karoon gas reckons the transactions in the CSG sector to date have been a very low valuations.

Note of caution though, the market is about 25% from its all time high. Are we really in such a good place?

Not trying to put a dampner on things, but a glut of CSG on the Australian East Coast is only going to benefit those who have the LNG projects with supply contracts to the greater Asia region.

There will be many companies that if they aren't taken over, will end up either, supplying cheap gas to the Queenland domestic grid, or having a stranded resource.

If the LNG gas prices rise internationally due to a bidding war, then synthetic/bio fuels will come into play more.

I believe in the CSG energy, but remember UCG/GTL technology is meant to be more efficient (like what LNC has).

I've looked into a micro cap company (JAT) that may be able to supply the tropical asian regions (Vietnam, Thailand etc) with a bio fuel from the Jatropha tree.

I've added the presentation as it does look at unconventional alternatives in the asian region (which is where all the CSG/LNG is headed)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=JAT&E=ASX&N=565138

Food for thought :rolleyes:

Disc: Not a shareholder, just looking at ALL alternative energy means

The Big Ease

11-01-2010, 11:31 PM

shasta

11-01-2010, 11:37 PM

the "glut" of csg theory isn't really supported by the action on the ground or the numbers i have come across.

BOW has already had approaches for off-take agreements and has said no, so the demand is definitely there.

The "glut" i mentioned is still in the future, the 1P reserves in the sector aren't sufficient in size yet to even have a market!

AOE is getting there though...

macduffy

12-01-2010, 08:21 AM

An interesting report yesterday to the effect that STO is seeking more time to secure an additional buyer/partner for its Gladstone LNG project. Speculation now is that they may seek to sell down more than previously indicated.

It's not all bad news of course as Petronas has agreed to take two million tonnes pa of the 3.5 mtpa output from the first train and STO has an option to sell another 1 mtpa to them. STO's SP was up a bit on the day.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/santos-seeks-more-time-on-lng-plans-to-secure-a-partner/story-e6frg8zx-1225818205768

The Big Ease

12-01-2010, 08:23 AM

Bartholemeusz writes an update on the scene
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/The-coal-seam-gas-wars-pd20100111-ZL2N2?OpenDocument&src=sph

Santos Update

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Santos-says-in-talks-to-sell-LNG-project-stake-ZKUFK?OpenDocument

macduffy

04-02-2010, 05:30 PM

Here's a presentation today from STO on the market/demand for gas.

Should be in the STO thread but no-one seems interested in them and besides it has implications for all companies involved in the sector.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100204/pdf/31njn1k0r8bksw.pdf

:cool:

newbietrader

04-02-2010, 06:04 PM

the CSG counters I hold all tank...BUL...WCL..NGE..what a crap...

trackers

04-02-2010, 06:22 PM

drillfix

04-02-2010, 06:25 PM

the CSG counters I hold all tank...BUL...WCL..NGE..what a crap...

Trick is newbietrader, once they start running away from you in the wrong direction, Get Out.

It really depends on what time frame you have invested in these. But these are fragile times atm.

I still hold a small parcel of CGV (clean global energy) which also went to cr@p on me. I sold half my holding as soon as it went the other way on me, so then I am only 50% wrong as a safeguard.

Since then they have gone into a TH and will put out some market sensitive news tomorrow regarding some JV in Victoria or something, dunno, but I may use that depending on what it is to think about getting out, should the opportunity arrive.

Currently the whole sector is up the sh#t, but it wont stay that way forever, so take note of that.

Hey Macduffy, thanks for the link.

soulman

04-02-2010, 06:36 PM

I think all the CSG counter tanked in the last week or two. AOE, BOW, ESG, ICN, MPO included. Only MEL is holding well.

I can't recall NGE having CSG interest.

bermuda

05-02-2010, 10:04 AM

Great presentation Macduffy, very informative...thanks for posting!

Thanks also Macduffy. Just the sort of thing we need to brighten our day as the DOW tanks and oil falls 5%. Cheers. There will be some good buying opportunities coming up.

Coal Seam Gas. Fuel of the Future.

mattyroo

05-02-2010, 01:44 PM

Coal Seam Gas. Fuel of the Future.

You're half right Bermuda..... Gas is the fuel of the future, but it's not CSG. CSG is going to be a small part of it, the development costs of CSG are just too high to see all of the development that was being talked about 6 months ago.

Yet, all the conventional gas to LNG projects are going gangbusters, Wheatstone, Gorgon, Pluto etc.

MrDevine

05-02-2010, 02:12 PM

So Matty are the majors going to write off the investment they've made so far? I think everyone should expect some consolidation in the field. But wouldn't it be cheaper to build infrastructure on land, than in the deep blue sea? I see competition between the two, whatever has lower input costs will win

soulman

05-02-2010, 04:49 PM

I (by risk mangement and luck) exited BOW the other day at $1.255 for a loss. The break below $1.25 on 1st Feb was the reason. My participation in the SPP and selling the lot for $1.39 was a positive gratification and I am sure BOW would be a great buy again soon.

AOE is also starting to look good soon in the low $3's.

drillfix

05-02-2010, 05:13 PM

Looks like CGV has been spared from today's carnage.

Holding steady between 14-15.5c

as too has CXY, strong support at 10c I wonder if this is orchestrated or not.

trackers

06-02-2010, 08:35 AM

New Zealand's Solid Energy to move into CSG?

Coalfields may yield natural gas

Eastern Taranaki's historic coalfields look set to be put to a modern new use – as a source of natural gas.
Coal company Solid Energy is moving into Stratford district this month to drill a series of exploration wells into underground coal seams in the Tahora and Tangarakau areas.
It is hoping enough gas will flow from the wells to warrant potential development of the area as Taranaki's latest commercial gasfield, either to supplement New Zealand's existing gas supplies or as a feedstock for electricity generation.
And even before the drilling starts, the news looks good.
Last winter Solid Energy drilled four similar exploration wells in the Mt Damper and Waitaanga areas further to the north, and the company's annual report says this project has produced "very encouraging" preliminary results.
Not only that, but success achieved by Solid Energy in its coalfields around Huntly underline the potential of coal seam gas as a new energy resource.
Four production wells drilled in the Rotowaru area have been combined to provide enough gas to feed a one-megawatt generator providing electricity to the national grid – New Zealand's first commercial use of coal seam gas.
Initial work at that coalfield has indicated it could contain the gas equivalent of 25 to 200 petajoules of energy.
While this is small when compared with Taranaki's Pohokura gasfield, which is estimated at up to 1200 petajoules, and the Kupe field at up to 300 petajoules, experts are forecasting coal seam gas has the potential to add up to 15 per cent to New Zealand's gas supply.
While use of coal seam gas is new technology in New Zealand, it is already a major contributor to gas supplies in the United States and Australia.
Solid Energy's Christchurch coal seam gas manager, Grant Redma,n said his company saw real potential in Taranaki.
"It's pretty exciting. Of course it is very early days yet, but we know that the coal resource out in eastern Taranaki is very big.
"If the drilling and subsequent testing proves the area's potential as a source of coal seam gas, then activity out there could take a pretty substantial upwards step."
He said the first exploration well would be a "scouting" well to confirm there was coal underground.
"The ultimate test is a production well, because from that we would be able to get a feel for the area's ability to produce gas at commercial rates."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/3298993/Coalfields-may-yield-natural-gas

MrDevine

06-02-2010, 09:06 AM

I've been reading and watching this morning BG Groups commentary and outlook for 2010+

Key takeouts are, they are firmly 'underpinned' on the Gladstone plant, Final Investment Decision mid this year. They will expand the facility to a 2 train 8.5mpta plant. Already have 8.3mpta contracted. Expected to begin production in 2014. So as Bermuda says, they'll be looking for all the gas they can get.

So this gives a positive spin on negativity around a LNG glut thats been circulating last couple of weeks. Although a lot could happen between now and then if the DOW goes to ZERO and we all die.

On the strength of that I'm lining up AOE –

newbietrader

06-02-2010, 11:52 AM

I think all the CSG counter tanked in the last week or two. AOE, BOW, ESG, ICN, MPO included. Only MEL is holding well.

I can't recall NGE having CSG interest.

my bad..nge is in my list of red..so i lump it

Dow 10,000 might the bottom line?

The Big Ease

07-02-2010, 12:06 AM

It seems more and more likely that the FID's are a formality

LONDON (Dow Jones)--BG Group PLC (BG.LN) said Friday that it will expand the planned capacity at its Curtis liquefied natural gas project in Queensland, Australia, to 8.5 million metric tons a year, from 7.4 million tons a year previously.

The company said it has already signed supply contracts for 8.3 million tons a year of that capacity and will make a final investment decision on the project in the middle of this year. The reserves of coal seam gas that will supply the plant now stand at 17.3 trillion cubic feet, it said.

BG Group Chief Executive Frank Chapman said the Queensland LNG project will become, "the jewel in the crown of our LNG portfolio...on the doorstep of the world's largest LNG markets."

Chapman said BG has the capital, the expertise and the gas resources to complete the project without needing another partner, although he would consider joining forces with other companies on infrastructure that could be shared, such as a pipeline from the gas-producing region Gladstone on Queensland's coast.

The plant is scheduled to commence production in 2014.

Another major LNG project in which BG has a stake, Nigeria's OKLNG, is currently on the backburner and is unlikely to start up until the second half of this decade, said BG's Chief Financial Officer Ashley Almanza.

BG said its output growth in 2010 will be modest, but will accelerate beyond 2011 close to the top end of the 6% to 8% per annum range. By 2020 the company will be producing around 1.6 million barrels equivalent of oil and gas a day, said Chapman.

percy

10-02-2010, 07:53 AM

Article by Criterion on csg at www.theaustralian.com.au

macduffy

10-02-2010, 08:25 AM

Article by Criterion on csg at www.theaustralian.com.au

Thanks, percy.

Here's a more direct link to Criterion's article.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/grand-scale-gas-projects-must-put-cards-on-the-table/story-e6frgac6-1225827251327

bermuda

15-02-2010, 08:15 PM

Corporate

15-02-2010, 09:27 PM

Have just read the latest quarterley from this very professional company.

Three things stood out

1. Their Brazil drilling is going exceptionally well. They expect production at 400k barrels per day by 2020.

2. They have invested in USA Shale Gas.

3. The Gladstone CSG/LNG project is described as the "Jewel in their crown".

I was especially pleased with their enthusiasm for Point 3. Gladstone CSG is going to be a lot bigger than some current Aussie journo's give credit to.

This quarterly is worth a read.

Thanks bermuda - the BG quarterly is locked in for reading tomorrow.

I think AOE is the horse to be backing. I am gradually churning through every annoucement for the last three years. Nick Davies is impressive.

Sold 10% of the Arrow international business for $130m (gross this up) - I don't think the market has accredited any value to this.

GLNG -> Curtis Island LNG could put AOE up there with the biggest energy companies in Australia.

Financially dependant

26-02-2010, 07:22 PM

GLNG consolidation process has started..."BG Says Conoco-Origin Agreement May Allow LNG Project Expansion"

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-02-25/bg-says-conoco-origin-agreement-may-allow-lng-project-expansion.html

macduffy

26-02-2010, 07:59 PM

bermuda

26-02-2010, 10:51 PM

This review of LNG by Southern Cross Equities makes interesting reading for those interested in CSG.

Disc: Holding AOE BOW STO

http://www.lnglimited.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1439&EID=59292823&PageName=Southern

OK, should really have posted this on the LNG thread but I think it has wider implications across the sector.

Thanks Mac,
Appreciate your posts.

This sector is getting a pasting at the moment for all the wrong reasons. When the 1st FID hits town we have a WORLD FIRST.

Huang Chung

27-02-2010, 01:37 AM

Anyone looked at the potential threat to CSG that shale gas might provide? Tim Threadgold has an article in a recent Eureka Report (which, unfortunately, I can't post). Can't say I'd ever heard of it.

See if you can track it down.

MrDevine

27-02-2010, 08:57 AM

Yeah HC I've read that article. Its one of the 'glut' of gas glut stories which are flying around. There's been a lot of discussion on HotC about this. Shale gas will be great for the US, if they can commercially get it out of the ground. Not sure about how feasible for them to start exporting it. Shale gas has very strong anti-environmental lobby (as CSG will no doubt soon have).

Another interesting dynamic to hit the gas market, is potentially the move away from long term contracts, towards more spot pricing, as for oil. This could have the effect of creating regional gas cartels to measure the spot price

Market seems to moved past how much gas you've got, to how much and what cost can you produce it at. Interesting to note BG says Gladstone gas will be profitable all the way down to $30boe. So I would say CSG market depressed as it gets closer to seeing what plants will get built, when and at what cost.

Interestingly the IEA says gas 'glut' to persist broadly to 2014 and then supply squeeze to kick in, exactly when most GLNG terminals are 'expected' to come on line.

Personally I think its a PR campaign that's been instigated on part of the majors in the hope they can squeeze some cheaper deals out of the market as they ramp up operations. They will get those deals I'd say.

.

Footsie

27-02-2010, 02:22 PM

there are some large net short positions in ESG and a few of the others.

my inkling is that there are some hedge funds in their shorting the sectors. its right across the board. you can see it every day. csg stocks are getting hammered on good news too.
started about 3 weeks ago and BOW, ESG, MEL for example are off 33% already.

this may have further to run, but look out for an almighty short squeeze if we get another takover bid or the market takes off again.

i hope these hedge funds get burnt.....COOKED with gas!

macduffy

27-02-2010, 02:31 PM

Hi, Footsie.

Where does one check net short positions of stocks - as distinct from daily shorts expressed as a percentage of daily transactions?

Footsie

27-02-2010, 08:53 PM

i get it sent to me from a broker

upside_umop

27-02-2010, 08:57 PM

You can also check them here (http://www.asx.com.au/data/Shortsell.txt). The only thing is that its daily and no past history. Mind you, I havent looked that hard...I'm sure the info is available.

evilroyrule

27-02-2010, 10:39 PM

if someone cld take a few mins to explain the ins and outs of this shorting process wld be greatly appreciated

tobo

28-02-2010, 12:21 PM

if someone cld take a few mins to explain the ins and outs of this shorting process wld be greatly appreciated

Hi, can I suggest you start a thread on the Strategies (or Newbies?) section entitled Shorting or Shorting equities on ASX

And do you want a light-weight overview of what it is, or do you want some particualr issues clarified (perhaps from someone actually doing it)...like which can be shorted, what to look out for. [I don't know much about it myself - I was under the impression that only some large caps can be shorted, and don't know if ASB Securities will let you do it.]

macduffy

28-02-2010, 03:02 PM

You can also check them here (http://www.asx.com.au/data/Shortsell.txt). The only thing is that its daily and no past history. Mind you, I havent looked that hard...I'm sure the info is available.

I apologise for continuing to rattle on about shorting but my query was originally about shorting BOW.

I regularly check the site you mention, u u , but what I'm after is something that shows current net short positions.

Any ideas out there?

I promise not to pursue this sidetrack any further!

Footsie

28-02-2010, 10:04 PM

mac

you can get the data. the asx provides it to brokers.

drillfix

01-03-2010, 12:59 AM

macduffy

01-03-2010, 08:36 AM

This is true Footsie,

Here it is here:
http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

Bare in mind that each stock in the list will only have X quantity of stocks available to short sellers, which means only so many short positions with that X amount of stock can be shorted and once they are all taken up on any given day, then you just cant short because you choose to, you need to be on the Bus with you position.

Hope this helps.

ps: can you imagine the $dollar$ recently that has been made on TOL, wow wow voom voom :P

I'm afraid that's not so, drillfix.

These are daily short sales - actual numbers and also expressed as a percentage of the total day's sales of each stock. They do not show the total outstanding short position in any stock.

I'll take Footsie's advice and speak nicely to my broker!

Thanks all.

drillfix

01-03-2010, 12:22 PM

Hi Macduff,

Fair enough, I believe I have posted the wrong link, I do know there is another TXT file that gets published though, I just dont know where atm :P

Let us know what you find out as I would be interested to see.

The Big Ease

03-03-2010, 10:11 AM

http://www.smh.com.au/business/gas-will-drive-coal-from-its-throne-20100302-pgbw.html

The Resources and Energy Minister, Martin Ferguson, said the future looked bright for Australia's gas projects but declining oil production would test the transport sector.

"The two big findings are the extraordinary potential of coal seam methane and unconventional gas resources, and for the first time we can see just how extensive Australia's renewable energy resources are,'' he said. "The assessment … shows our coal and gas resources can support energy demand for many decades … But, with almost every sector of the Australian economy dependent on oil as the major transport fuel, dependence [on oil imports] is likely to increase if we don't find more oil resources or alternatives."

macduffy

10-03-2010, 08:37 AM

The Australian reckons that AGL's 50% of the Moranbah gas reserves may be next on Shell/Petrochina's shopping list, if the bid for AOE succeeds.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/agl-next-on-gas-radar-for-shell-and-petrochina/story-e6frg8zx-1225838885956

trackers

10-03-2010, 09:18 AM

Another interesting article today.. I'm in two minds about it..

Arrow bid punctures gas bubble

THERE'S a disconnect between the offer Shell and its partner, PetroChina, have made for the Queensland coal seam gas company Arrow Energy and the prices that were paid in the past for similar coal seam reserves owned by Arrow, Santos, Origin and other Australian groups.

The $3.2 billion offer implies a 60¢-a-gigajoule value for Arrow's proven, probable and possible coal gas reserves. That's about 48 per cent less than big foreign gas groups including Malaysia's Petronas, Britain's BG group and ConocoPhillips of the US paid on average during the coal seam land-rush in 2008, and about 22 per cent less than Shell paid for a 30 per cent stake in Arrow's tenements in the same year.

The bid, and Arrow's decision to take it seriously despite the price discount, reflect the much more complicated outlook for gas in the wake of the global financial crisis, and after the development of technology that is capable of doubling the world's gas reserves.

There is an awful lot of gas in the ground, enough perhaps to break the nexus between gas prices and oil prices. The peak oil argument that sees oil prices rising inexorably as producers fail to bring new production on stream fast enough and cheaply enough to replace diminishing reserves simply does not apply, and that knowledge both impels the $3.2 billion offer Shell and PetroChina have launched, and dictates that Arrow take it seriously.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/arrow-bid-punctures-gas-bubble-20100309-pvwf.html

percy

17-03-2010, 09:10 AM

article by tim boreham,Criterion in www.theaustralian.com.au business headed coalseam gas thrills keep on coming.