FMG - Did anyone ride this one all the way?

[hector]

Just interested who made gains on this amazing story over the past few years. Traders? Long term?
Penny stock share price a few tens of cents to >$80 over 3 years!!!
Wow.

Cheers

[ronthepom]

Just interested who made gains on this amazing story over the past few years. Traders? Long term?
Penny stock share price a few tens of cents to >$80 over 3 years!!!
Wow.

Cheers

Think you've got it wrong hector, its $8 per share.

[slam]

Think you've got it wrong hector, its $8 per share.

10 4 1 split

[hector]

Think you've got it wrong hector, its $8 per share.

Hi Ron.
Yea I think they did a 10:1 split along the way so if you got in early then price equivalent $80...... MAD

[ronthepom]

Hi Ron.
Yea I think they did a 10:1 split along the way so if you got in early then price equivalent $80...... MAD

Then a nice one alright, lucky for some eh?

[Romer]

Och ai. If only we had a crystal ball!

[shasta]

Och ai. If only we had a crystal ball!

Romer

FMG had a very large resource of a resource (Iron Ore) that wasn't really being talked about whilst it grew & grew (even before selling any) into a multi billion market cap.

Paladin in someways has done the same with Uranium, from penny dreadful to $A5+ (& a market cap in the billions).

If you are looking for the "next" FMG, follow the same logic...

ADY has a large Lithium/Potash resource, & agriculture seems "hot" with phosphate...(ie, IPL).

LNC is another with explosive potential - having a large UCG (Underground Coal Gasification) resource.

Im sure there are a few more "under the radar" :D

[The Big Ease]

someone on another forum who "confessed" to having bought in at 40 cents or so.
still holds, the bastard. hehe

[Romer]

Thanks Shasta. I will have a look. Meanwhile I am overweight in PPP cause I think the share price HAS to move soon.

[MrDevine]

Its been incredible to watch, has been on my list. Looks like another example of things not being what they seem.

Problems the market perceive are, loads of debt, uncertain cashflow, possible falling Iron Ore prices, low grade Iron Ore, and perception (reality?) that Iron Ore shipments are being refused by some steel makers in China. All in all stormy waters for FMG.

Some talk on HC that FMG might get eaten by somebody else (BHP may be keen on the rail lines and port infrastructure FMG have built). Maybe a chinese company who knows?

Mr D

[ollie]

Fmg has attracted 2 stock exchange enquiries over the past 2 weeks re; share price appreciation. It was up 70% one day last week to $2.99, yesterday it was down 20% to $1.71, it's all over the shop. It's low was $116 a few weeks back. I don't see any news except about shipping contracts ????

Iv'e traded it a few times succesfully but would like to hold some long term ??

Can anyone please throw some light on company.

[winner69]

Fmg has attracted 2 stock exchange enquiries over the past 2 weeks re; share price appreciation. It was up 70% one day last week to $2.99, yesterday it was down 20% to $1.71, it's all over the shop. It's low was $116 a few weeks back. I don't see any news except about shipping contracts ????

Iv'e traded it a few times succesfully but would like to hold some long term ??

Can anyone please throw some light on company.

Went down yesterday because they said some contractor $3m odd bu issuing shares ...... and the market said oh hum no cash in the bank

Unusual thing to do I say

[macduffy]

Given the state of the world economy, the parlous state of the market for iron ore and the amount of debt that FMG carries, it looks to me to be a highly speculative proposition at the present time.
The market seems to agree.

[ollie]

the rumour says FMG is talking to China about some sort of deal ?? Limited news on this side of the ditch, whats the goss team. Looks like China wants as many Ozzy minning assets it can buy at depressed prices which no doubt will give them strenght in pricing future contracts of iron ore..??

[Corporate]

Does anyone follow FMG anylonger?

Seems reasonably priced at at current PE of 10, with massive growth plans!

[winner69]

The big short for one punter

http://www.smh.com.au/business/renowned-shortseller-bets-against-fortescue-20120426-1xo0r.html

[winner69]

Good to see - Andrew fights back ..... those nasty gurus who do this shorting need to get their comuppance one day .... irrespective of whose right lets back Andrew anyway - if he says FMG is not a value trao it aint

http://www.smh.com.au/business/fortescue-boss-hits-back-over-negative-rumours-20120429-1xt09.html

[winner69]

The big short for one punter

http://www.smh.com.au/business/renowned-shortseller-bets-against-fortescue-20120426-1xo0r.html

Shareprice down 25% since that post about a month ago

Looks like Chanos on a winner here picking this loser .... maybe FMG was a value trap .... when does it become value

Latest ho ha
http://www.theage.com.au/business/forrest-all-at-sea-as-global-economy-falters-20120524-1z7zs.html

In his attempts to smooth over the seriousness of the situation in Europe, Twiggy has blinked. Jim Chanos is laughing the whole way to the bank.

[Joshuatree]

Andrew forrest buys $20million FMG shares which have hit$3.65 ;iron ore hit $90 tonne and baltic dry index dropping big time. Any contrarians out there? Im not brave enough to make a call or a buy but if i did prob be BCI..

[Corporate]

Make that $40m!

[Joshuatree]

Thanks Corp. Do you have an opinion? cheers

[soulman]

If the impending battle between billionaires hedge fund syndicate and A.Forrest is going on, then Mr Forrest has no chance. Game, set match to J Chanos and his peers.

[winner69]

At the Mr Forrest does not seem to winning .....share price might have a 2 in front of it soon

So was Chanos right .....was this a big bear trap? Looks like it was eh

And fmg hocking things off and to stop spending on developing things

[macduffy]

Hot off the SMH's "presses"!

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/boom-is-history-as-mining-contracts-20120905-25dtw.html

I'll keep clear of the iron ore miners for the present time.

[soulman]

Not winning winner but Mr F has already won in life, just making a few mistakes but not lifestyles changing hits. Like Gina R with her amazing investment into TEN and FXJ hit her with 10's and many millions losses but still put food on the table.

[winner69]

.....share price might have a 2 in front of it soon



299 close today after asking the banks not too worry about debt convenants for a year

[soulman]

299 close today after asking the banks not too worry about debt convenants for a year

That's as negative as it sounds winner. It's like me going to the bank asking for a 100 year home loan?

How low could it go. $2.50 soon and then a 1 in front of it?

The difference in FMG to other iron ore related coy such as BCI, IOH and AGO is that all those coy have net cash position. IOH looks goods in re: to cash backing but I supposed stay away from downtrending stocks until they start to uptrend.

[winner69]

That's as negative as it sounds winner. It's like me going to the bank asking for a 100 year home loan?

How low could it go. $2.50 soon and then a 1 in front of it?

The difference in FMG to other iron ore related coy such as BCI, IOH and AGO is that all those coy have net cash position. IOH looks goods in re: to cash backing but I supposed stay away from downtrending stocks until they start to uptrend.

spose with $10 billion or whatever it is Mr Forrest has the advantage they can't really afford to be too drastic .... they prob have a bigger problem than he has

[The Big Ease]

Iron Ore had a tremendous decade of increasing prices and as usual this led to an increase in exploration and development.
Discl: I don't hold any IO stocks.

The price has softened but probably overdone.
China just approved 150billion dollars of infrastructure projects last week....probably more stimulus to come and hopefully better administered than the last time which served mostly to inflate real estate prices.

The ECB is going to be buying government bonds - an unlimited amount, to reduce borrowing costs for spain/italy and the like. HUGE news.

The US Fed is rumoured to announce QE3 shortly.

Triple stimulus. If you made a christmas list of things you wished for the market, these would have been the three things at the top of the list.


I think we are about to see the likes of BHP switching their attention to gas in Australia.
They have already pulled back in expansion plans for a number of projects in other areas, including iron ore.
I suspect this money will be earmarked for acquisitions and development in shale.

There are a number of developing shale plays which qualify under their criteria:
Long life, low cost, increasing global demand.

I suspect they will be snooping around the Cooper and Canning shortly. The Cooper is all set with infrastructure. The Canning too big and juicy to ignore.
They have already made their intentions clear that they are scouring every square inch of Australia for gas because they don't want to be caught out when the eventual takeovers happen.
They're watching.

FMG is simply stuck in a situation they wanted to sneak past. Expansion/debt and now softer Iron Ore prices. If they can get through the next 6 months, they will be fine.

[winner69]

One way to stop the shareprice falling ....trading halt

[p2r]

Trading halt & talking to the bankers Oh o!

[winner69]

Andrew sorted the bankers .....all's well on the western front

Heaps made by the brave today .....and seems to be a good day for most iron guys

[troyvdh]

dear winner...your right.....now....when to buy BHP.......any buyer in the last 4 years has lost dosh....

[winner69]

Hmm, well you know a company is well and truly out of favour when no one has commented on it for 15 months. But news flash -the big miners have staged a come back since July. With commodity prices looking relatively stable, costs being stripped out faster than you can say "what happened to [insert mining services company here] share price", capital investment down to virtually nothing, and production volumes increasing rapidly - you have some pretty cheap miners generating a lot of cash. FMG is now focused on paying down debt and increasing its dividend payout ratio. Chart looks healthy too - just a shame I didnt notice it back in August :-(

On a P/E around 7 FMG is the cheapest of the big four, which hopefully means a bit of catchup on a P/E rerating as well as fundamentals.

Yes - even BHP is up 20% since July

The world still needs all this stuff and as things have settled down a bit I think these companies may be solid performers in 2014

Somebody told me I was dumb buying BHP in July, oh well everybody to his own thing eh

[Corporate]

Looks like the Motley Fool has noticed as well, way to go guys, come jump on my bandwagon. Sometimes I wonder if the author reads this forum, so many times stuff gets commented on out of the blue in here, and then 2-3 days later the same topic is in the news.

"2014 could be the year of the dividend-paying resource companies. Just as 2013 was characterised by the big four banks, Telstra (ASX: TLS) and the big retailers outperforming the market based on their strong dividend yields, 2014 could see income-seeking investors take up positions in Australia’s big energy and resources stocks.... Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG) is a higher-risk big resources company that could surprise on the dividend upside. Fortescue had a flawless 2013, exceeding expectations to pay down its huge debt load and refinance remaining debt at a lower interest rate. In the 2013/14 financial-year, Fortescue is forecast to deliver over 20 cents in dividends, corresponding to a yield of around 3.5% on a payout ratio of 23%. If the company can have an equally impressive 2014 and 2015 it could become a great, long-term dividend payer for shareholders."

I think iron ore miners will definitely be winners during FY14 and this is why I continue to hold AGO.
Kw do you have a view on gold miners? Many have been smashed and seem historically cheap.

[tricha]

Woohoo, here comes the cash!

"Fortescue Metals Group has joined in the dividend bonanza sweeping the Australian market, announcing a higher than expected half-year payout that will see close to $103 million flow to its biggest shareholder, billionaire rich-lister Andrew ‘Twiggy’ Forrest. The 10¢ per share dividend is equal to the full year profit announced by the company in 2013 .... Fortescue wants to gradually increase its dividends until it hits a consistent dividend payout ratio of between 30 and 40 per cent. The dividend paid out by Fortescue was almost double the 5.3¢ dividend analysts had been expecting"

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/andrew-twiggy-forrest-pockets-103m-as-fortescue-joins-dividend-rush-20140219-32zsr.html#ixzz2tjKoXM90

I wonder if it will recover this time:confused:

Is the writing on the wall?

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/6/20/australian-news/why-chinese-investment-matters-australia

This is already weighing on margins across Australia’s resource sector and as The Australian reported (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/iron-ore-price-slump-claims-first-victim/story-e6frg9df-1226959724124) yesterday, it has already claimed its first victim: the Cairn Hill iron ore project in South Australia. Fortescue remains at risk, with high levels of debt and a relatively high break-even of $72 per tonne (Fortescue gets another wake-up call (http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/6/17/resources-and-energy/fortescue-gets-another-wake-call), June 17).
Urbanisation will continue to drive demand for infrastructure investment in China but we shouldn't ignore the effects of population growth and the declining rate of urbanisation. Both will weigh on growth in the medium-term.
Of more immediate concern, however, is the excess capacity resulting from past investment. This points to softer demand for iron ore and coking coal and may result in commodity prices falling even further. This presents a near-term risk for the Australian economy, not just in the broadest sense but with regards to individual iron ore producers.



FMG
Fortescue Metals Group LTD FPO
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