OEL - (Otto) Multi based, Gambling Stock.

[shasta]

ps i trust you manage to sort your ASB issue out. nothing too serious i hope.

It's serious enough to stuff me financially, but we'll see. :rolleyes:

I did re-buy into OEL again @ around 7c from memory & may have sold out at a small loss (can't remember)

[shasta]

i forgot to mention that two directors have been made purchases recently, too. always a good sign. moreover, i've just seen it jump to .073 - hopefully the start of things to come...

-j

OEL up 0.6 to 7.9c in early trading.

Can it breach 8c & hold it?

Something in the wind :confused:

[boysy]

its starting to look the goods all we need is some sort of announcement it is still seriously undervalued at these levels.

[boysy]

looks as though things are really moving along at galoc with this release this could explain the sp action

aloc Production Corp. (GPC) is preparing to start the second phase of drilling at its Service Contract (SC) 14 area in Northwest Palawan, a top consortium official said.

Paul Moore, president of Otto Energy Ltd., said the second part of the drilling program will start anytime soon and will enable them to increase the recoverable reserves from the area by five million barrels.

GPC, which owns a 58.29 percent in the SC 14 consortium, is composed of the Vitol Group (68.6 percent), an international oil company, and Australian firm Otto Energy (31.4 percent).

Other participating stakeholders in the SC 14 consortium are Nido Petroleum with 22.8 percent; Oriental Petroleum and Minerals Corp., 7.57 percent; The Philodrill Corp., 7.03 percent, UK firm Forum Energy Philippines Corp., 2.27 percent; Alcorn Gold Resources Corp., 1.53 percent; and PetroEnergy Resources Corp., 1.03 percent.

Moore said the target for Galoc is to “increase 2P reserves by five million barrels and access Galoc contingent resources.”

He said  two wells will likely be drilled and production for each is expected at around 4,000 barrels per day. Current production at the Galoc field is around 11,500 barrels per day.

The Galoc field is estimated to contain 10 million barrels of recoverable oil reserves.

Singapore’s Gaffney and Cline Associates, however, estimated the Galoc field   could contain up to 49 million barrels of oil reserves.

In October 2008, the Galoc field started producing oil and has produced and sold over three million barrels of oil to date.

Moore said preparations for the second phase of development includes “seismic interpretation, well positioning, drilling costs and schedule and tie-back preparations.”

[boysy]

The funny thing is though in recent presentations and releases from oel and ndo no mention was made of fast tracking galoc phase 2 you wonder what has made them change their minds. perhaps ndo has come up with there own reserve estimates and sees sense in developing galoc further on this info. As we have not had an official reserve upgrade either though at the time galoc was first producing they did mention it was exceeding expectations could be an interesting week ahead ?

[jdg]

cheers for the info, boysy. a release to the media but not to the market? i wonder if we will hear anything officially today? it's had a strong run in the last couple of trading days, can it continue its march upward?

very sorry to hear that you're problems are serious, shasta, you seem to know as much as anyone about OEL so i hope we can maintain your interest.

i'm no TA expert - far from it, in fact - but i'd say that the chart is now looking pretty solid with a break out on good volumes.

-j

[boysy]

looks as though some information about galoc performance will have to be released soon. NDO was the one who initiated a independent reserve study so that should hopefully yield more certified reserves. For a company producing 2000 odd barrels and a market cap of 70-80 odd million something has to give. Hopefully the payments have picked up along with the oil prices in that case the quarterly could help propel the sp along a bit further. This one is still under the radar of many people though i think the wealth destruction of last year will linger on until oel can get more than one project going bring on calauit and the farm outs this year as well as turkey news any day now one hopes.

[jdg]

agreed, boysy, we are potentially waiting on several important bits of news. reserves upgrade (and recent production figures) at galoc. gas starting up at turkey. and the chance of jv announcements as well (certainly conditions have improved, which they were waiting for). i had a wee look for information regarding calauit. we hold 85 percent of it, but what are we looking at here. oil was discovered in the early 90s, but were then any estimations of size or were flow rates tested? heaps on the horizon, if all goes well, and god knows OEL deserves a run of good luck (although 7 from 7 in Turkey is pretty charmed, let's hope start up is smooth and on time).

-j

ps. are there any TA exponents having a look? i'd love to see commentary on the chart if anyone has the time and inclination.

[jdg]

just found the estimates of calcuit 10 to 70 million barrels (at p90 and p10 respectively). gee, that could be truly massive for OEL...MASSIVE. and we know oil is there...whoa. this looks better and better the more i look at it.

-j

[boysy]

yeah calauit is a big driven short term. It has flowed at 7000 barrels and 3000 barrels at the two tested wells i believe off the top of my head . It will cost money get the oil out of the ground hence the need for a farm out but there mid case scenario is for around 12000 bopd so if we farm out 35% then thats still around 7000 barrels net to otto. Yep interesting times ahead but add into that sc 55 which is elephant country and that could really get things going though i would like to see the oil deposits found (sc 50 ie calauit) developed so oel is not simply at the speculative end of the oiler spectrum.

[boysy]

The only drawback i see is the fact that massive sh wealth was destroyed last year so im sure there will be a few doubters out there but they are delivering on many fronts im still accumulating at these bargin basement prices.

[jdg]

thanks so much for the response, AA.

does the recent spike, with increased volumes, not constitute a breakout? i would have thought a move above .072 may have constituted one...but my TA leaves more than a little to be desired.

FA is more where i'm at and, as Boysy points out, there's a whole lot of blue sky on offer - and a base of solid ongoing earnings. the market just needs to renew it's confidence in the stock; and that should go a long way to happening if the horror run at galoc ends (and logic suggests it must) and gas is added from turkey this quarter.

-j

[Corporate]

FA is more where i'm at and, as Boysy points out, there's a whole lot of blue sky on offer - and a base of solid ongoing earnings. the market just needs to renew it's confidence in the stock; and that should go a long way to happening if the horror run at galoc ends (and logic suggests it must) and gas is added from turkey this quarter.

-j

Agree with what you say jdg. What sort of revenue are OEL looking at for turkey gas?

[Rabbi]

OEL, like a lot of other juniors, survived the credit crunch with a massive share issue.
Now has well over one billion shares on issue.
They have reasonable cash flow now but they need a JV partner in the Philippines.
Not a dog to take wings and fly anytime soon.

Disc: Hold OEL

[shasta]

Agree with what you say jdg. What sort of revenue are OEL looking at for turkey gas?

Otto have quoted flow rates of 10-14mmscf/d @ between $US7.00-8.00

Lets take the mid point 12mmscf/d x $US7.50 = $US90,000 per day (~$A100k per day revenue).

OEL has a 35% interest in Edirne, so roughly $A35k per day gas revenue

There presentation has estimated gas production for 2010 @ 0.23mmboe

It's a bit of icing on the Galoc cake ;)

[Corporate]

Otto have quoted flow rates of 10-14mmscf/d @ between $US7.00-8.00

Lets take the mid point 12mmscf/d x $US7.50 = $US90,000 per day (~$A100k per day revenue).

There presentation has estimated gas production for 2010 @ 0.23mmboe

It's a bit of icing on the Galoc cake ;)

Thanks Shasta - are these figures right? Thats $A30m PA (with 65 down days)....not just icing!!

[Corporate]

Thanks Shasta - are these figures right? Thats $A30m PA (with 65 down days)....not just icing!!

aah! Just looked at the presentation - 35% working interest.

Still circa. $10m PA is nice.

[shasta]

Thanks Shasta - are these figures right? Thats $A30m PA (with 65 down days)....not just icing!!

I edited my post - OEL has a 35% interest, the numbers i quoted were the total figures.

For 2010 revenue i'd assume 9 months production, being conservative

[boysy]

clearly the massive shareholder destruction of wealth last year will continue to be an issue for oel. They now have to prove the goods the new ceo looks like he has a good strategy of consolidating the focus of oel to the pines and turkey which he should. The question from here on out is how will the company develop we do not have the resources to go elephant hunting so one would hope they continue to develop what they have already found ie develop calauit, galoc phase 2, turkey phase 2 ect. Some of those deadlines for sc we have are fast approaching so it should be an interesting year as we have alot of time presure in certain service contracts particularly sc51 and then sc50. Hopefully the big boys make some more finds in the pines this cant hurt the chances of farming out sc55 and the like.

[jdg]

hi AA, thanks for the response. i saw last night that you had responded again but i didn't have time to reply (i was hoping to have a read of your links), but your posts seem to have gone...? anyway, i see resistance at .072 looking at the chart (mid august, late sept, mid oct). i'm picking if we hold above that, and then go past .079, the high of the recent spike, we can assume an uptrend. still, it may be all a bit academic if she drops below .072 - and with oil down overnight that wont help sentiment. but who knows, interest in OEL seems to be on the increase judging by volumes so i can only hope that a few people are picking up on the fundamentals and see the potential many of us here do. thanks again, i appreciate your expertise.

-j

[jdg]

also, boysy, we will get the quarterly at the end of the month and that should give us a good update on how well oil is flowing at galoc - hopefully without disruption we've been quickly filling the coffers. a good sentiment builder, for sure. and not long after we should hear from turkey. a smallish earner, shasta, but pretty bloody good when OEL only has a market cap of $70m odd. moreover, there is almost certainly more there and we now have the facilities to quickly exploit any new discoveries.

-j

[boysy]

i think we should all watch out for the reserves upgrade i belive oel may have been a tad conservative in stating our reserves it could be a interesting reserves update when it sees the light of day.

[jdg]

BHP are back with a deal in SC55. Let's hope the seismic finds some great leads for a two drill bite at a very big cherry. no timeframes in the announcement, but having such a large partner is a brilliant thing. pleasing to see they have worked through their differences of a year ago. great news!

-j

[jdg]

being mindful of hype, from 2D data OEL say of one area within SC55:

"A deep water block with massive reef and turbidite reservoir potential with Direct Hydrocarbon Indicators, Marantao has prospective resources of 3.3 tcf gas or >1 billion bbls oil, with a number of further leads for follow up."

yip, chances of this type of strike occurring are slim, but the potential for a company transforming find are there. one can't help being a little excited by that. moreover, OEL have many such prospects in numerous acreage, let's hope the farm outs continue.

-j

[shasta]

being mindful of hype, from 2D data OEL say of one area within SC55:

"A deep water block with massive reef and turbidite reservoir potential with Direct Hydrocarbon Indicators, Marantao has prospective resources of 3.3 tcf gas or >1 billion bbls oil, with a number of further leads for follow up."

yip, chances of this type of strike occurring are slim, but the potential for a company transforming find are there. one can't help being a little excited by that. moreover, OEL have many such prospects in numerous acreage, let's hope the farm outs continue.

-j

I like the fact that even though the first attempt to secure a farm in with BHP lapsed, they have been able to renegotiate an agreement.

Yes, it's in deep water & in "elephant country", but OEL's committment & risk has been reduced.

Personally, i'd liked to have secured a partner for SC50 (Calauit) & get that fast tracked, before looking for massive deep water oil/gas fields.

With NDO having the largest direct interest in Galoc, & with there own deep water permits, between NDO & OEL they have a big area in the Phillipines covered.

The Galoc revenue would surely support the costs in getting Calauit up & running if these two were to do a deal.

OEL would likely farm down to around 50%, so NDO (or someone else, KIK?) could secure a 35% chunk of Calauit.

All pie in the sky stuff at this point, but worth noting.

KIK is also in the Phillipines with some tie with NDO.

[jdg]

hey shasta, it must be a bit bitter-sweet for you watching this from the sideline. i hope things are looking up for you, mate.

i agree with you in regards to Calauit, when we know oil is there surely it is better to pursue that than poke around in the dark. still, we don't know what's happening behind the Otto office doors. they may be negotiating something as we speak.

if it holds anything above 9c today, i will be happy. it certainly constitutes a break out now, AA.

-j

[boysy]

could be very interesting with past costs being reimbursed this could help fast track calauit this certainly is a good signal hopefully it will put oel on the radar of a few other players

[Corporate]

Well done Otto - things are turning. I really should have bought at 7c a week or so ago!

Thoughts on entering now?

[boysy]

you have to think if bhp farms in then oel will get alot of costs reimbursed to them wont they which they could put to good use in sc50 or Galoc phase 2 certainly is an interesting time ahead. No use getting ahead of ones self but hopefully oel will give us a bit of an update in the quarterly reguarding recently shot 3d over sc55 this could give us an indication of the prospects in the region. 1000km - 2000 km of 3d siesmic could bring forth many more targets now couldnt it. Seems as though the stars could be aligning themselves for oel lets just hope they can get other projects fast tracked now that we have a bit more coverage and perhaps a few new valuations could go along nicely

[Misc]

This is a great deal ... for BHP! I would not buy now. Obviously 80m shares were happily dumped and the price finished well below its high leaving alot of punters in the red.

BHP hold all the cards here and as I read it will not share the 3D with the company , rather they will use it to renegotiate , walk or farmin as agreed. Share of backcosts would be minimum , perhaps $2m?

To risky for mine . 1.2b shares on issue! Hope a few here took the chance to exit. M

[Corporate]

BHP hold all the cards here and as I read it will not share the 3D with the company


I disagree. Otto are dong very well to snag a big fish like BHP. Super powers like BHP are like gold to small minors like OEL. THe annoucement states that OEL with acquire the 3D seismic and BHP will pay for it. OEL will hold the data and and let BHP review it exclusively (I.e. they just can't give it to someone else).

[boysy]

perhaps someone can post a chart and there thoughts and opinions then ?

[boysy]

misc - the facts are

The price went up over 20% today hardly a bad day at the office for holders pre announcement

share of back costs i would be suprised if it was anywhere near as low as 2 million

as for 1.2 billion shares on issue i think 1.07 billion would be closer to the mark

yes there are risks involved but as long as the risk return ratio balances itself out then enough said. This company is producing 2000 bopd net it has no debt it has great farm out prospects and fields waiting to be developed. I am a happy investor

a little bit of research before bagging sure this company has a chequered past the question is what is the new team doing.

[jdg]

this is worth a look

http://www.ottoenergy.com/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1318&EID=10000000&PageName=StockAnalysis Special Report - OEL

i feel pretty confident the current sp is well supported by what we currently have. this stock has just been ignored because of a really bad run of luck, and potentially poor management. the law of averages suggest the former must turn, and for the latter we have a new CEO.

cheers, AA, i hope you keep an interest. i'm always up for learning a little more of the way of the TA. i tried using the Force, but it's not as easy as it looks. did i read your post correctly that you're holding?

corporate, the reason i'm happy holding, and happy to buy more as funds allow, is i'm backing on the quarterly bringing us good production news. i'm also anticipating gas coming on line smoothly and on time. moreover, the blue sky via farm ins is potentially massive. but the thread title says 'gambling stock', and that's what i'm doing - don't take my advice as any more than that, mate.

there are others here (shasta and boysy for two) who know much more than i. i'm a new kid on the block who seems to have lucked in with my timing.

all-in-all it's been a great little ride so far. let's hope it continues.

-j

[Misc]

Well said AA.

I think that several posters here hold from 2008 levels , perhaps 50c+ , this stock has been a shocker and todays selling suggests plenty of holders screaming 'get me out'. This will touch 7c beofre 10c again I would suggest. The announcement today is really only fluff and far from any certainty to it adding value at all. M

[shasta]

this is worth a look

http://www.ottoenergy.com/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1318&EID=10000000&PageName=StockAnalysis Special Report - OEL

i feel pretty confident the current sp is well supported by what we currently have. this stock has just been ignored because of a really bad run of luck, and potentially poor management. the law of averages suggest the former must turn, and for the latter we have a new CEO.

cheers, AA, i hope you keep an interest. i'm always up for learning a little more of the way of the TA. i tried using the Force, but it's not as easy as it looks. did i read your post correctly that you're holding?

corporate, the reason i'm happy holding, and happy to buy more as funds allow, is i'm backing on the quarterly bringing us good production news. i'm also anticipating gas coming on line smoothly and on time. moreover, the blue sky via farm ins is potentially massive. but the thread title says 'gambling stock', and that's what i'm doing - don't take my advice as any more than that, mate.

there are others here (shasta and boysy for two) who know much more than i. i'm a new kid on the block who seems to have lucked in with my timing.

all-in-all it's been a great little ride so far. let's hope it continues.

-j

I think we can safely remove the "gambling" comment from Otto now.

OEL is now an oil producer @ around net ~2000bopd, with no debt, & is cashflow positive, receiving monthly "dividends" from GPC.

OEL & IPM had an 8/8 strike rate in Edirne in Turkey, & signed up to the Turkish gas grid getting prices Aussie companies would be envious of.

OEL also has SC50 containing the Calauit field which has a known oil discovery in it, & OEL owns *85% of it (maybe even *99% depending on the farm in terms).

This farm in from BHP for SC55 is for a deep water permit in "elephant country", this is not just a company maker, ANY discovery here will make OEL a multibagger, as there are some large potential targets in these permits.

These deep water wildcat drills are extremely expensive, & without a major to fund these, we would never be able to complete the minimum work conditions for receiving/keeping the permit.

NDO a while back came out & estimated a possible *11.6b OIP on there deep water permits, of course this is all pie in the sky stuff, until a resource is proven, but it highlights the potential.

* 11.6 Billion barrels Oil in Place

OEL has the same kind of potential on there deep water permits.

However these are not near term projects and are late 2011, or 2012 at the earliest.

I've already posted a rough guide to the gas revenue ex Edirne, & to my mind, OEL's next priority would be to get a farm in partner for SC50.

With oil prices still pretty strong, now is the time to start planning to extract it, instead of looking for giant fields among there deep water permits

[shasta]

Well said AA.

I think that several posters here hold from 2008 levels , perhaps 50c+ , this stock has been a shocker and todays selling suggests plenty of holders screaming 'get me out'. This will touch 7c beofre 10c again I would suggest. The announcement today is really only fluff and far from any certainty to it adding value at all. M

Thats a bit of a misguided sweeping statement!

I originally bought in at 32c & sold out at 48c

I bought back in around 7c & sold at a loss at something around 6c.

OEL's problems were well documented, & only those with a long term approach would have held through all there commissioning issues

[Misc]

Shasta , there is NO 'BHP Farm_in Agreement' (as you state). There is simply a Seismic Option. Big diff. All the cards are in BHPs hands and there will be no time left on the work program if they do not exercise the option to farm-in and drill. In many ways todays ann is a liability to OEL but demonstrates the 'backs to the wall' position they are in with all their permits. Nido are a far safer play. M

[Phaedrus]

I'm not sure what sort of chart you are wanting here, Boysy, but here is one from the point of view of a fairly active trader using an end-of day based system.

The Slow Stochastic Oscillator gave a Buy signal on 6/1/10 at Candle (1). Isolated signals like this are generally ignored, but they do constitute a "heads up".

The next day at Candle (2), Buy signals were generated by price trendline breaks, RSI oscillator and an OBV trendline break, giving a very well-confirmed entry at 7.3 cents. (The red trendline tracks Closes, the magenta trendline tracks highs.)

Candle (3) gapped up and was looking strong.

Candle (4) was essentially a "dark cloud cover" - a Bearish reversal signal. Active traders Exit at 7.7 cents.

Candles (5) and (6) continued the short-term downtrend.

Candle (7) marked a new uptrend, giving a new entry at 7.5 cents.

Candle (8) gapped up today on huge volume (over 82 million).

More active traders would not have waited for the Close at candle (2) before buying.

Less active traders would not have sold at candle (4) at the "dark Cloud Cover".

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/OEL115.gif

[shasta]

Shasta , there is NO 'BHP Farm_in Agreement' (as you state). There is simply a Seismic Option. Big diff. All the cards are in BHPs hands and there will be no time left on the work program if they do not exercise the option to farm-in and drill. In many ways todays ann is a liability to OEL but demonstrates the 'backs to the wall' position they are in with all their permits. Nido are a far safer play. M

It's hardly a liability, BHP are funding the minimum work required to retain the permit.

OEL will receive a reimbursement of costs to date (not much).

If you look at the bigger picture, BHP have already previously tried to tie up a deal with OEL, that lapsed, & the mere fact BHP still want to be involved can only be a positive thing, as today's trading highlights.

Have you been burnt by OEL in the past?

Nido said they had 11.6 billion barrels, when are they getting that out?

[jdg]

Well said AA.

I think that several posters here hold from 2008 levels , perhaps 50c+ , this stock has been a shocker and todays selling suggests plenty of holders screaming 'get me out'. This will touch 7c beofre 10c again I would suggest. The announcement today is really only fluff and far from any certainty to it adding value at all. M

hey misc, i appreciate different view points as they add to the debate, so cheers for that. although I can't agree with you that the deal is only 'fluff'. BHP aren't in this for a lark, and their interests are the same as OELs - to find oil. i just can't see this as being anything other than positive. still, we will have to wait some time to see if anything comes of it. we won't , however, have to wait too long to test another point on which we disagree. what comes next 7c or 10c? and i'm happy to have that friendly wager. winner gets bragging rights.

-j

[Corporate]

Misc - do some more research. OEL are doing extremely well to have BHP back on their side.

[scorp57]

shasta - I have been keeping OEL on the watchlist ever since talking to you bout them a few years ago... Looks like they have turned that corner!

Could you give me a run down of what you think their timeline "Could" be over the next 2 years? i.e ramp ups in production etc?

thanks mate!

[shasta]

shasta - I have been keeping OEL on the watchlist ever since talking to you bout them a few years ago... Looks like they have turned that corner!

Could you give me a run down of what you think their timeline "Could" be over the next 2 years? i.e ramp ups in production etc?

thanks mate!

Scorp

Off the top of my head. :rolleyes:

OEL still has Galoc flowing at around net ~2000bopd, & fully online now

OEL has a 35% interest in 8 gas finds at Edirne (Turkey), this is due to come online Q1 2010 (1 Jan - 31 March), or may sneak into early Q2

I worked out a rough estimate of gross gas revenue @ $A35k per day (compared to say 2000 x $A80/bbl giving $A160k oil revenue per day)

Total revenue per day is therefore around ~$A200k when the gas is fully online.

There is a high likelihood there is more gas around these discoveries, & i reckon they will drill some extra wells, any new finds can be tied back into existing production facilities.

Into the 2nd half on 2010 & into 2011 is the Galoc phase 2, to drill two additional wells to boost production (estimated at gross ~4000bopd each)

Should these prove successful, i would imagine the JV partners would try drilling into Galoc North nearby.

Into the future - 2011 & beyond:

1. BHP doing the 3D seismic testing on SC55, a deep water permit
2. A farm out on SC50, a known oil field in the Calauit permit.
3. Look for additional farm outs to perform minimum work required on there other deep water permits.

Possible Drilling Program (2010-2011):

1. Extra gas wells in Edirne, Turkey
2. Galoc Phase 2, 2 additional production wells
3. Possible 2 drills in SC51 "Argao"

Pretty pictures for the deep water permits showing possible GIP/OIP

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OEL&E=ASX&N=473336

[Crypto Crude]

good write up shasta
:cool:
.^sc

[boysy]

would be good to see the company capitalise on the increased interest to try and secure farm outs in the other sc's oel hold. Clearly sc51 has priority but would be good to see sc 50 developed sooner rather than later.

[shasta]

would be good to see the company capitalise on the increased interest to try and secure farm outs in the other sc's oel hold. Clearly sc51 has priority but would be good to see sc 50 developed sooner rather than later.

Absolutely, SC50 isnt a large field, but the flow rates are quite good & would really set OEL up as a cash cow.

Calauit is in 85m waters, so they do need to get it right, & avoid all the pitfalls that Galoc has had.

[boysy]

yes it could be a good chance to show they can deliver the goods on time as promised with no hickups. SC50 could be very benificial for oel especially if the field performs as predicted and certainly scope for further developments to be tied back to that area. Hopefully oel could maintain a significant stake in the sc as well as a farm out would certainly be needed at this stage.

[jdg]

as previously noted, i believe the sp is easily supported by current projects (and then some). but with the Dow and oil down since AXS closed, i won't be surprised to see a retrace come monday morning. i would consider anything else to be particularly bullish.

-j

[Misc]

I agree will come barreling backward tmrw. Alot of 'hot' shares bought Friday and will need to dumped before T3 , also Dow / Oil and stoploss issues will weigh on the SP. Perhaps worth a crack under 8c? Also should be noted SC50 is obviously sub commercial and should not be included in any valuations imo.M

[boysy]

why is sc50 sub commercial ? they have flow rates that suggest it commercial the only question is how much oil is in the ground and the fact development will cost money which oel do not currently have hence the need for a farm out

[boysy]

The Calauit Oil Fields are contained in fractured carbonate reservoirs in 80 to 100 m water depth in
Northwest Palawan, Philippines. The two discovery wells, Calauit-1 and Calauit-South-1, tested two
separate Oligocene carbonate structures at approximately 1600 mSS that flowed up to 7,000 and
3,286 barrels of oil per day. The main accumulation has estimated 10 (P90) to 70 (P10) million
barrels of oil in place.
Oil is reservoired in structural anticlines with a dominant fracture direction of 150/330 degrees and a
subordinate (conjugate) set at 20/200 degrees. Fractures in the Calauit Limestone reservoir provide
conduits of very high permeability, as supported by well tests.
Fracture swarms on seismic may indicate areas of much greater fracturing leading to higher rates
and recovery.

[shasta]

why is sc50 sub commercial ? they have flow rates that suggest it commercial the only question is how much oil is in the ground and the fact development will cost money which oel do not currently have hence the need for a farm out

Exactly, Misc if you're going to post on OEL, at least get your facts right.

Calauit (SC50) was put on hold for the follwing reasons:

1. Galoc production problems, caused cashflow issues with GPC's debt, which meant OEL weren't receiving there monthly "dividend" cheques.

2. OEL didn't have the cash to bring this into production itself, so it was delayed whilst Galoc was sorted & brought online.

3. OEL's high equity in SC50 @ 85% left OEL exposed (if there were any problems like Galoc), & management wanted to farm out some of the risk/costs.

4. OEL already had Galoc & Edirne on the go, plus Gazzatta (Italy) & Santa Rosa (Argentina) on the horizon & had too much going on, thus the decison to defer Calauit.

[boysy]

clearlu oel has left a bad taste in the mouth for many past and present shareholders but facts cannot be ignored and the company has changed course directed by new talent and already delivering on promises. They want to sharpen there geographic focus with turkey and the pines and farm down to create shareholder value. Clearly everyone should do there own research and not be sucked in by either optimists or pesimist let the facts speak for themselves. It looks as though oel have the ducks lined up it is now with them as to whether they can follow through.

[Misc]

Yes sub commercial by anyones assessment. Thus has not attracted any farminees or been developed by OEL despite being marketed and spruiked since 2005! There are better plays in the Philippines. This is overvalued for now imo. M

[boysy]

sub commercial by anyones assesment ? oil is subcommercial untill the field is produced and the actual results are known when the oil was found it was sub commercial at those prices things have changed substantially. It is a producer around 2000 bopd net ontop of this gas about to start up plenty of exploration upside market cap of under 100 million. why is it overvalued in your opinion ?

[Misc]

Boysy. Exploration 'assets' are liabilities .... until someone (with $$) farms in. All the potential in the world doesnt pay the rent. Otto has a share of a declining Galoc field and a few farts of gas in Turkey. $100m cap is not justified at this point.

SC50. I have worked in the area and believe me Caluit is as technically challenged as anything I have ever been involved with. Why do you believe it has not been developed when Nido/Tindalo have?? The monsters lie in the Coron play SC54 and the South Sulu sea (as Exxon have found) and possibly SC55 but yikers thats a wild bit of permit. M

[boysy]

im guessing you are a fan of nido petroleum then the tinaldo field is no more developed that calauit is what is your point there ? 100 % hit rate in turkey so far sure they are not big finds but they are bankable and will generate revenue on top of galoc. i am interested to see if you think nido is overpriced based on fundamentals alone ?

[jdg]

OEL gets a mention in this article, with speculation that it has the potential to be a 150% plus stock this year.

many members of this forum will be interested to see BOW also gets a positive rap too, along with a few other stocks followed on this site.

quite a good read generally, if you're interested in resources.

http://thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=8745

-j

[Misc]

Boysy , I think you will find that Caluit (SC50) was targeted for development (read spruiked) even before a rejuvenated Nido tackled the Galoc redev. Since then Tindalo has been tested. Why not Caluit? Its not a goer I can assure you. Todays SP action was as expected but certainly am keeping an eye on OEL as new management appears to be cut from different cloth than previous. The Philippine is HOT in the sector now with Majors dancing to minors tunes in many cases , watch for more Farmin and drillbit action this year. You just need to back the right horse imo. Cheers

[shasta]

Boysy , I think you will find that Caluit (SC50) was targeted for development (read spruiked) even before a rejuvenated Nido tackled the Galoc redev. Since then Tindalo has been tested. Why not Caluit? Its not a goer I can assure you. Todays SP action was as expected but certainly am keeping an eye on OEL as new management appears to be cut from different cloth than previous. The Philippine is HOT in the sector now with Majors dancing to minors tunes in many cases , watch for more Farmin and drillbit action this year. You just need to back the right horse imo. Cheers

Misc

Again you are getting your facts wrong. :rolleyes:

Nido is NOT the operator of Galoc, GPC is.

OEL & NDO follow suit on what GPC does, as do the other minor JV partners.

As for why Calauit hasn't been tested, well it has previously been flow tested, thats why we know the oil is there!

I've already outlined the reasons why Calauit has been deferred, i suggest you re-read them.

As for whether it's a goer or not, lets wait & see - you don't have any more idea than the rest of us about it.

Otto don't see it as a priority right now, although this is an area i disagree with them.

You can back NDO if you like (nothing wrong with them), but no need to bag OEL with rubbish statements.

[Misc]

Oh Dear Shasta. GPC was a direct result of the Nido rejuv. They drove it , bought in Team Oil and Cape Energy , who latterly stitched the hapless OEL into GPC. I suggest you do some DD before promoting such nonsense! M

[kura]

The deal with BHP has sparked a bit of interest in OEL.
However I had a vague memory the the had a previous agreement with BHP, and BHP decieded to walk away.

[boysy]

oel are in a much better position than last time bhp came sniffing we have galoc online functioning as it should (finger crossed) we have a much higher oil price and much better sentiment in exploration in the pines area. even at this price it represents good buying. The thing i think people forget is that oel is producing albiet indirect significant quantities of oil and revenue which should hopefully be highlighted in the upcoming quarterly as we had minimal production interuption in the dec quarter. looks the goods today on decent volume i just hope the company is using its time in the spot light to further other projects in its arsenal.

[shasta]

oel are in a much better position than last time bhp came sniffing we have galoc online functioning as it should (finger crossed) we have a much higher oil price and much better sentiment in exploration in the pines area. even at this price it represents good buying. The thing i think people forget is that oel is producing albiet indirect significant quantities of oil and revenue which should hopefully be highlighted in the upcoming quarterly as we had minimal production interuption in the dec quarter. looks the goods today on decent volume i just hope the company is using its time in the spot light to further other projects in its arsenal.

Nice jump today up 0.8 to 9.4c on 14m traded ;)

[jdg]

a great day, very encouraging that this surge looks to still have more left in it. the quarterly will be critical. i'm backing it to be a good one, and so are many others by the looks of things. OEL may well be coming back into favour.

-j

[shasta]

a great day, very encouraging that this surge looks to still have more left in it. the quarterly will be critical. i'm backing it to be a good one, and so are many others by the looks of things. OEL may well be coming back into favour.

-j

The cashflow statement will be eagerly anticipated by alot of people.

Perhaps when the market sees the cash in the bank, the story will get out

[scorp57]

Good to see OEL coming good for you Shasta! onwards and upwards!

[boysy]

still holding gains on very decent volume im sure we are all eager to see the quarterly should be looking as healthy if not better position than before. I would expect oel priority to be a farm out of sc51 and sc 50 hopefully they can give us an update of progress in this respect.

[shasta]

still holding gains on very decent volume im sure we are all eager to see the quarterly should be looking as healthy if not better position than before. I would expect oel priority to be a farm out of sc51 and sc 50 hopefully they can give us an update of progress in this respect.

OEL - December Quarterly Report

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OEL&E=ASX&N=477357

Cash on hand $A18.76m

First gas towards end of Q1 (late March)

Relinquished the Santa Rosa permit, Argentina

SC50 requires two wells to be drilled in Calauit by March 2011 (OEL monitoring the rig availability ;))

Would like to see a share consolidation down the line

[jdg]

very healthy income, and if we have no more disruptions (and with gas coming on line) that will only increase. the coffers are indeed starting to swell. very pleasing.

we began an exploration drill in Turkey on Jan 15? i may have thought that would have been announced to the market. am i reading this right (pg.4).

i've only had a skim as i'm a bit busy, but all-in-all it looks very positive.

-j

[shasta]

very healthy income, and if we have no more disruptions (and with gas coming on line) that will only increase. the coffers are indeed starting to swell. very pleasing.

we began an exploration drill in Turkey on Jan 15? i may have thought that would have been announced to the market. am i reading this right (pg.4).

i've only had a skim as i'm a bit busy, but all-in-all it looks very positive.

-j

JDG

This ann, highlights the fact given there 100% success, about further exploration

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OEL&E=ASX&N=474109

OEL - Response to ASX Query

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OEL&E=ASX&N=477369

The usual "please explain" & we know nothing reply!

[boysy]

i like you liked the mention of sc 50 in the quarterly i know its fanciful thinking really for oel to go it alone but gee imagine that. Looks like they are starting to have a sufficient safty net cash wise but good to see it building as it should likely increase further over the next quarter though clearly not to the same extent as the dec quarter.

[shasta]

i like you liked the mention of sc 50 in the quarterly i know its fanciful thinking really for oel to go it alone but gee imagine that. Looks like they are starting to have a sufficient safty net cash wise but good to see it building as it should likely increase further over the next quarter though clearly not to the same extent as the dec quarter.

Busy next quarter ahead...:)

http://www.brr.com.au/event/63806/otto-energy-set-to-perform?log=1

I expect a few anns to get the SP ticking along, as hinted in the BRR link

[boysy]

up on a very down day in fact the sp has held up very well in the last few trading days i guess people are starting to see oel performing

[boysy]

perhaps someone with charting skills could post an updated chat would be interested to hear some ta on otto

[shasta]

perhaps someone with charting skills could post an updated chat would be interested to hear some ta on otto

Here's a very basic chart, but you get the picture :D

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/imageChart.axd?BI=2&COMT=index&OVS=XJO&TF=D6&TIMA1=20&TIMA2=20&s=OEL

[shasta]

Here's a very basic chart, but you get the picture :D

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/imageChart.axd?BI=2&COMT=index&OVS=XJO&TF=D6&TIMA1=20&TIMA2=20&s=OEL


Here's a better chart (mid term - 12 months) showing fairly strong resistance at 10c, which is kinda normal being a nice round number.

Note, the RSI is now around 80 & getting a little overheated

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=OEL&exchange=ASX&period=1Y&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=CANDLE&compi=&ma1=90&ma2=180&bb=&ind=RSI&ra=2

Just for fun, here's the longer term chart (2 years)

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=OEL&exchange=ASX&period=2Y&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=CANDLE&compi=&ma1=90&ma2=180&bb=&ind=RSI&ra=2

[boysy]

thanks for that shasta it has been a very rewarding week for shareholders. Sadly looks as though the market has turned for the worse one has to think can oel hold onto the gains next week hopefully some more good news will be released am interested to see ndo quarterly and hopefully they will provide some more information on there galoc development plans and reserve certifications which should be out soon i am led to believe. Hopefully they will not be the ones dragging there feet in the sand to delay galoc phase 2 though they clearly have other priorities. Would be good if we could snag a farm out to develop sc50 like they have done with there recent oil discoveries.

[jdg]

ASX tanks and OEL surges. now above 10c. where's misc...?

-j

[boysy]

good question jdg oel sure is powering ahead against the market thats for sure. Big volumes continually going through i wonder who is accumulating. Plenty of people willing to off load as some sh clearly bought above the present level.All in all a very decent few weeks as a sh and still plenty of news expected before the next quarterly one would think. Hopefully other farm out talks are progressing behind closed doors im sure bhp hoping into the frey cant of hurt oel position in talks with potential farm in partners

[Rabbi]

OEL is a bit of a comeback stock along with BCC. Both juniors had to massively dilute to clear their debt
I'm wondering what is the main factor behind the re-rating of OEL
Is it the improved performance of Galoc?
Phase 2 of Galoc getting factored in?
BHP taking an interest in the Phillipines permits?

All of these?:rolleyes:

[shasta]

OEL is a bit of a comeback stock along with BCC. Both juniors had to massively dilute to clear their debt
I'm wondering what is the main factor behind the re-rating of OEL
Is it the improved performance of Galoc?
Phase 2 of Galoc getting factored in?
BHP taking an interest in the Phillipines permits?

All of these?:rolleyes:

Rabbi

Just to add to your post re factors...

1. Two additional production wells for Galoc (as part of Galoc phase 2)
2. Edirne gas due this quarter, will add to cashflows + further exploration
3. SC50 - the mention in the quarterly they are looking into the rig market, re availablity

The market likes certainty, & with no debt, oil flowing & cash in the coffers, i'm picking the market is looking ahead with some optimism...

The Brent oil price has snuck up a bit.

Any further farm out arrangements (especially if with BHP) will spark more interest into Otto.

I'd like to see OEL move away from exploring in Italy, & focus on adding to the gas production in Turkey, where there AVO style analysis gave them an 8/8 100% strike rate.

The Phillipines ultimately has to be there focus area, Galoc, Calauit & then the deep water permits ;)

[Rabbi]

Thanks Shasta, I had forgotten about Turkey.

Your post sums it all up nicely.

[jdg]

kumluk came in with nine metres of gas, meaning the remarkable 100% success rate in turkey continues. the next target, kartal, will be spudded next week (weather permitting).

-j

[boysy]

took a turn at the end of the week as could be expected by market sentiment and dropping poo. I to also saw the sneaky little comment about SC50 and the company keeping an eye on the rig market. Could be quite interesting on the Edirne front with 100% so far you have to wonder why they do not step up with a bit of activity here all new finds can be easily tied back to the existing infrastructure im having trouble finding the max capacity of the plant for handling the gas any one got an answer ?

[shasta]

took a turn at the end of the week as could be expected by market sentiment and dropping poo. I to also saw the sneaky little comment about SC50 and the company keeping an eye on the rig market. Could be quite interesting on the Edirne front with 100% so far you have to wonder why they do not step up with a bit of activity here all new finds can be easily tied back to the existing infrastructure im having trouble finding the max capacity of the plant for handling the gas any one got an answer ?

With OEL's Edirne guidance at 10-14mmscf/d (based on 8 production wells), now with a 9th production well, they must be getting close to 14mmscf/d.

Using the gas price mid-point @ $US7.50 & the AUD/USD @ 0.88

Gross Gas Revenue = ~$A120k x 35% (OEL interest) = $A42k per day

Assuming full production in Q2 (1/4/10 - 30/6/10)

91 days @ $A42k = $A3.82m Gross Gas Revenue (net OEL)

Not exactly huge but meaningful enough to add to cashflows, & the funds could & probably should be earmarked for more gas exploration drills.

You can see the upside if they keep drilling & finding more discoveries

[boysy]

yes i think the turkey gas could end up being a meaningful contributor to the bottem line. Another 5 wells to be drilled this quarter alone i remember reading an old presentation where they mentioned drilling 49 wells in this licence alone. Shasta do you have any idea of the max capacity of the plant currently being built ? Why not keep drilling if you have 100% hit rate i say

[boysy]

Have i missed something out i was reading an old quarterly and they had the flow rates for the first 3 wells drilled. Would be nice to know how the other wells have come in

Kirmizihoyuk-1 3.2 mmscf/d
Ikihoyuk - 2 mmscf/d
Oktakci-1 2.5 mmscf/d

[shasta]

yes i think the turkey gas could end up being a meaningful contributor to the bottem line. Another 5 wells to be drilled this quarter alone i remember reading an old presentation where they mentioned drilling 49 wells in this licence alone. Shasta do you have any idea of the max capacity of the plant currently being built ? Why not keep drilling if you have 100% hit rate i say

No i don't know what it's capacity is, but i doubt it would be much cost or effort to expand existing production facilities.

Biggest issue is probably choking the flow rates back to a safe level. :confused:

With such a great success rate, the JV partners must surely realise they are drilling in a gassy fairway, & my thoughts are that they should keep extending the exploration drills whilst they keep hitting gas.

With Galoc ticking along now, OEL can focus on Turkey & expanding the current exploration program, depending on what there JV partners want.

The drills aren't expensive, nor would the opex be on each new production well.

It's still not a strategic asset, so they really either have to buyout there JV partners & keep drilling, or sell there 35% interest to there JV partners & focus purely on oil in the Phillipines, & getting Calauit up & running.

OEL now needs to look at operating there own projects, or taking on bigger interests in JV's.

[Misc]

They should sell Turkey and I shouldnt wonder that this is planned. Focus on SC55 and some new plays closer to home. Caluit is rubbish and will never be comercialised by OEL. SC69 may be ok as long work program fuse but the rest are liabilities imo. Cheers

[shasta]

They should sell Turkey and I shouldnt wonder that this is planned. Focus on SC55 and some new plays closer to home. Caluit is rubbish and will never be comercialised by OEL. SC69 may be ok as long work program fuse but the rest are liabilities imo. Cheers

I guess if NDO found the Tindalo discovery in SC54, BHP/OEL will be more positive about SC55, hence why they are doing 3D seismic, but it's deep water stuff here.

Calauit (SC50) is in *85m waters, & SC51 has quite a few prospects, especially Argao (but even thats in 230m waters!), though i see they have 2 drills planned during 2010, as part of there work comittment.

As for SC69, seems to be on the outer, only 2D seismic planned for 2010.

* I note Tindalo is in similar depth :rolleyes:

[boysy]

misc i wonder why you say sc50 is rubbish it has been flow tested at very decent flow rates what is your reasoning for saying it will never become commercial ?

[Misc]

Technically its a nightmare. Too faulted. Bit like 40 or so 1 litre oil packs vs trying to find a 44gallon drum. Check our Blades Cadlao 'field' (recently under option to STX) , that is a much 'safer' redev play but still has failed to excite any serious player despite being 'on the block' for some years.
Dont you think Caluit would have attracted a farminee by now if it was workable? Or are you of the camp that says 'oh they are keeping if for themselves' ? LOL , SC50 has been 'marketed' to all and sundry for over 5 years. The permit will be dropped imo. Cheers

[boysy]

Thanks for clarifying that misc i agree with you that they have so far not yet failed to excite any farminees and this must be due to the nature of the field

[shasta]

Technically its a nightmare. Too faulted. Bit like 40 or so 1 litre oil packs vs trying to find a 44gallon drum. Check our Blades Cadlao 'field' (recently under option to STX) , that is a much 'safer' redev play but still has failed to excite any serious player despite being 'on the block' for some years.
Dont you think Caluit would have attracted a farminee by now if it was workable? Or are you of the camp that says 'oh they are keeping if for themselves' ? LOL , SC50 has been 'marketed' to all and sundry for over 5 years. The permit will be dropped imo. Cheers

OEL hasn't operated any projects either, perhaps they just don't have the technical ability to get SC50 into production?

There 85% interest is still way too high for a deep water risky play.

Who is the O&G game is technically able to get SC50 up & running?

It's not a big field, thats why i always assumed a bigger fish wouldn't be interested?

[Misc]

Shasta , there a plenty of Oilers with the technical ability to develop Caluit. Its simply sub commercial at very best. The farm-out flyers were doing the circuit 5 years ago! A better use of funds would be to farm-in to big bang play close to home. One currently doing the rounds is CUEs Catarina prospect (drilling Q4 2010) with 11TCF potential. Although they are probably hoarding cash for Galoc II costs next year.

[shasta]

Shasta , there a plenty of Oilers with the technical ability to develop Caluit. Its simply sub commercial at very best. The farm-out flyers were doing the circuit 5 years ago! A better use of funds would be to farm-in to big bang play close to home. One currently doing the rounds is CUEs Catarina prospect (drilling Q4 2010) with 11TCF potential. Although they are probably hoarding cash for Galoc II costs next year.

I just went back & re-read the flyer on SC50

http://www.ottoenergy.com/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1422&EID=78219029

An interesting read!

But i agree with you, expanding Galoc now it's back up & running makes the most sense.

I also wonder about your farm in idea, it's cheaper to buy into known reserves than go drilling for it!

[boysy]

Bring on galoc phase #2 but i think having a second production asset cannot be underestimated even if the income is relatively speaking minor compared to galoc. Perhaps getting a bigger stake in turkey could be a good idea especially if the 100% hit rate is any indication of the regions potential.

[boysy]

not a bad start to the day was expecting a bit of selling pressure but it doesnt look like this is in fact eventuating. I guess quite rightly as the poo is falling the relative price of a barrel of oil is remaining relatively stable. Will be interesting to see if the drilling of tindalo will bring some spot light on some of oels sc's well anyway what is good for one company in the region certainly has to have flow on effects for other stakeholders of sc's in the pines

[shasta]

not a bad start to the day was expecting a bit of selling pressure but it doesnt look like this is in fact eventuating. I guess quite rightly as the poo is falling the relative price of a barrel of oil is remaining relatively stable. Will be interesting to see if the drilling of tindalo will bring some spot light on some of oels sc's well anyway what is good for one company in the region certainly has to have flow on effects for other stakeholders of sc's in the pines

NDO's partner in SC54 is KIK, & whilst OEL are next door with SC55, you'd hope they would attract some attention.

Between OEL & NDO (+KIK) they have quite a large acreage tied up in the Phillipines.

We already know BHP is sniffing around the area, perhaps all three companies are targets down the line :confused:

[boysy]

must be due sometime soon for the next well result in turkey. Planty to keep the sp ticking over. Wouldnt mind if they released a new presentation soon with some updated analysis on the 3d shot over sc 55 though im sure this could still be weeks away. Galoc still running as expected no news is good news in that department. I wouldnt be supprised if we hear about thefacilities upgrade along with ndo's reserve assessment

[jdg]

i wonder what has happened to Nido's reserves estimate. it was due in january. if that comes back with a good sized increase, it should be a terrific near term drive for the sp.

i agree, boysy, it's great to not hear anything about galoc, as it must be ticking away nicely. it was due a bit of luck. a couple more strikes in turkey would also be pleasing.

-j

[boysy]

Yes jdg oel certainly should get a boost from a likely reserve upgrade. Will be interesting on how oel will react to the reserve reassessment figure as the last one ndo did in 2008

mid-2008 Nido commissioned Gaffney, Cline and Associates (GCA)
Phase #1 phase #2
1P 15.9 MMstb 3P 56.8 MMstb
2P 24.6 MMst

meanwhile oel have done there own reserve estimate and came up with a much smaller figure. Quite interesting to see the different reactions from NDO after OEL came out with there figure they did not want to endorse OELs finding but wanted independent certification.I believe on this was discussed on this thread previously as there are advantages for oel to understate or be overly conservative on the reserve front. This should surely add a bit more coverage if the reserve estimates increase and would certainly put a rocket up the galoc phase 2 participants at it. Yep turkey is a nice little play might as well keep drilling if they belive that hit rate stays high its all incremental income .

[shasta]

Yes jdg oel certainly should get a boost from a likely reserve upgrade. Will be interesting on how oel will react to the reserve reassessment figure as the last one ndo did in 2008

mid-2008 Nido commissioned Gaffney, Cline and Associates (GCA)
Phase #1 phase #2
1P 15.9 MMstb 3P 56.8 MMstb
2P 24.6 MMst

meanwhile oel have done there own reserve estimate and came up with a much smaller figure. Quite interesting to see the different reactions from NDO after OEL came out with there figure they did not want to endorse OELs finding but wanted independent certification.I believe on this was discussed on this thread previously as there are advantages for oel to understate or be overly conservative on the reserve front. This should surely add a bit more coverage if the reserve estimates increase and would certainly put a rocket up the galoc phase 2 participants at it. Yep turkey is a nice little play might as well keep drilling if they belive that hit rate stays high its all incremental income .

OEL - Seismic Acquistion Commencing - SC55

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OEL&E=ASX&N=480014

Starting today a 2 month 1800km2 3D seismic program

BHP is funding this, so lets hope the comprehensive seismic program locates multiple prospects, so BHP wants to develope them ;)

[boysy]

yep it must be a sign of confidence to get in the upper end of the expected range of 3d seismic. Should hear an update from turkey sometime soon and hopefully some updates via galoc phase #2

[boysy]

not a bad end of day up to 9.8. Starting to look the goods though hopefully some news reguarding the other sc's will come out soon. That galoc reserve update and possible phase #2 development should be getting rolled out soon one would think.

[shasta]

not a bad end of day up to 9.8. Starting to look the goods though hopefully some news reguarding the other sc's will come out soon. That galoc reserve update and possible phase #2 development should be getting rolled out soon one would think.

OEL hitting an intradray high of 10.5c & turnover approaching 10m shares

A close above 10c would really give OEL a boost next week, maybe that Galoc reserve upgrade is in the wind? :confused:

[boysy]

yep looks as though that 10 cent is the barrier though i am liking that volume currently around 14 million shares. There should be plenty of news in the pipeline so hopefully we will hear something soon. though regarding the galoc upgrade i would of expected a bit of a pop from ndo if that was the case. Both still looking cheap based on fundamentals

[shasta]

yep looks as though that 10 cent is the barrier though i am liking that volume currently around 14 million shares. There should be plenty of news in the pipeline so hopefully we will hear something soon. though regarding the galoc upgrade i would of expected a bit of a pop from ndo if that was the case. Both still looking cheap based on fundamentals

OEL ended up with the VWAP of 10.0c, however a chart painter after market took OEL back down to 9.9c, just up .01c from the intraday low.

Still on balance this is a good sign, given the volume :)

[boysy]

yes a few games no doubt being created at the end of day with the 1 share left at 10 cents

[shasta]

yes a few games no doubt being created at the end of day with the 1 share left at 10 cents

OEL currently up 1.1c to 11.0c on just over 5m turnover

Bit of momentum here, that reserve upgrade on the way?

Could someone with decent software post a chart please :rolleyes:

[jdg]

yeah, it's looking very strong. that reserves estimate is overdue so it can't be too far away. if it delivers a significant upgrade it should do wonders for the sp.

-j

[boysy]

yep starting to look the goods and looks as though turkey could yield more than initially thought onwards and upwards

[shasta]

yep starting to look the goods and looks as though turkey could yield more than initially thought onwards and upwards

Here's the link:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OEL&E=ASX&N=480514

Seems if this upcoming 2,000m well is a discovery, more infrastructure will be needed!

Glad to see more exploration wells in Turkey, & perhaps this project can now be expanded into a decent revenue earner

[boysy]

yeah it certainly looks as though they are proceeding with phase #2 in turkey lets hope they keep up there hit rate. Looks as though they will have to expand the newly built plant if the find more gas as they predict. It certainly looks like they are going after bigger fish with the yolboyu-1 well. This is low risk stuff dealing with the shallow gas so far hopefully this luck extends to the deeper yolboyu-1 well though no 3d so im not banking on that discovery quite yet. This certainly could bolster oels revenue from turkey if these set of Drills in turkey go well. Hopefully we will hear some more from other projects oel participates in soon enough. NDO is looking cheap at the moment i might have to top up on some more hopefully galoc keeps pumping for the next few months and both share can start flying.

[shasta]

yeah it certainly looks as though they are proceeding with phase #2 in turkey lets hope they keep up there hit rate. Looks as though they will have to expand the newly built plant if the find more gas as they predict. It certainly looks like they are going after bigger fish with the yolboyu-1 well. This is low risk stuff dealing with the shallow gas so far hopefully this luck extends to the deeper yolboyu-1 well though no 3d so im not banking on that discovery quite yet. This certainly could bolster oels revenue from turkey if these set of Drills in turkey go well. Hopefully we will hear some more from other projects oel participates in soon enough. NDO is looking cheap at the moment i might have to top up on some more hopefully galoc keeps pumping for the next few months and both share can start flying.

A potential 7 Bcf for Yolboyu-1 - thats pretty impressive for 1 well :eek:

With you having both OEL & NDO, Boysy, you have a direct interest in about 5,000 bopd + a bit of gas on the side & a huge chunk of the Phillipines deep water permits!

I've been looking into NDO of late, alot to like, but OEL is still my favourite O&G play.

OEL finished up 0.6c at 10.5c on 10m turnover, & looking good

[jdg]

nice to see another strike, and a big one having been spudded. COS is much lower, but it's nice to go after a bigger fish.

if they were to strike, any thoughts on whether OEL would participate in increasing plant capacity? i wonder if they would be inclined, as they have to this point, to let the partners do the building and pay to have the gas processed. they are in a better financial position these days, but they may be more inclined to invest their money into the philippines projects.

i'll be happy with that quandary, as it means we've come up trumps - and changed turkey from a nice little earn on the side to something much more important.

-j

[boysy]

yes it looks as though turkey could really be shaping up to be an important geological area if the deep well comes through with gas. Looks as though turkey phase #2 has been given the green light you wonder how much gas they are going after in terms of production per day currently projected to be around 10 million cubic feet a day you wonder what potential increase this drilling could bring to bear. Oel might as well spend money where they are getting quick results though each is minor they all add up and could become something much bigger by the looks of it. Im a keen holder

[jdg]

don't get me wrong, boysy, i couldn't be happier with them spending on drilling. a ten from ten success rate is a dream run, but i was wondering whether they would spend if the decision was made to expand edirne - if that proves necessary - or whether they continue with the arrangements they have now (it may depend - at least in part - on what they negotiate as a cost for processing, and we should find out that in the immediate future). let's hope it's a decision they have to make...
and ditto as to being a happy holder.

-j

[boysy]

you do raise a good question i guess it purely comes down to the funding in place oel were stretched when the investment decision was made to go ahead with the gas processing plant. OEL are in a much better financial position now so they also might want to state they are serious about developing the region so might now participate in any future facility developments. The current cost of the facility is around US$10 million oels share had it wished to participate at 35% would of been US$3.5 million which at the time this was announced would of been a large portion of there remaining cash this is not so the case anymore so i wouldnt be surprised if they opt back into the plant or future production facilities.

[shasta]

you do raise a good question i guess it purely comes down to the funding in place oel were stretched when the investment decision was made to go ahead with the gas processing plant. OEL are in a much better financial position now so they also might want to state they are serious about developing the region so might now participate in any future facility developments. The current cost of the facility is around US$10 million oels share had it wished to participate at 35% would of been US$3.5 million which at the time this was announced would of been a large portion of there remaining cash this is not so the case anymore so i wouldnt be surprised if they opt back into the plant or future production facilities.

They already have a gas sale arrangement in place, so i'm sure the gas company involved will want to secure any further gas production, & may assist with funding for any additional infrastructure required.

I don't believe the costs would be that onerous to set up new production facility, especially if the deep well hits gas.

I think with OEL's 35% interest, the risk v reward is worthwhile expanding the production facilities, of course OEL don't operate Edirne, so it depends entirely on the JV partners!

[STRAT]

Hasnt OEL survived well over the last month of misery. Well done you guys.

A few clear resistance lines there to get through. Tomorrow might be a good day to watch it close

[boysy]

all it will need is a few more positive announcements lol. Plenty of info should be due in the next few weeks one can only hope the general market itself doesn't take a turn for the worse.

[shasta]

Hasnt OEL survived well over the last month of misery. Well done you guys.

A few clear resistance lines there to get through. Tomorrow might be a good day to watch it close

To my untrained eye, if OEL breaches the 10.5c resistance & closes above it tomorrow, with this sort of volume can we expect 10.5c as a new level of support?

[STRAT]

To my untrained eye, if OEL breaches the 10.5c resistance & closes above it tomorrow, with this sort of volume can we expect 10.5c as a new level of support?Its possible but some time spent above those lines would be preferable and its not support till it comes back down and bounces off and up I would have thought. If I had bought at the blue vertical line and looking for sell signals Id be watching for a cross over of the MA. A breach of the steep short term trend line, a drop in OBV ( thanks P ) Candle formations and volume.



Its a bit of a critical time in terms of the chart, the world markets and the POO. Id be optimistic but ready to jump.

PS,
my eye is also untrained and even worse if I cant find my glasses ( a resent acquisition and one Im fighting every step of the way. Glasses that is :rolleyes: )

[boysy]

seemed to hold its own today i guess plenty of people waiting for some more information even so 3 mill odd shares traded.

[shasta]

seemed to hold its own today i guess plenty of people waiting for some more information even so 3 mill odd shares traded.

10.5c looks like a pesky resistance level

Quite a bit of trade "after close"

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/stock-trades?S=OEL&E=ASX

Might need some great news to breach that 10.5c...

Reserve upgrade this week would help :D

[boysy]

good start to the day up to 11 on 1.4 mill turnover will be interesting to see how the day will pan out and whether that 10.5 will set a new level of support. Am expecting plenty of info out in the next few weeks.

[Rabbi]

The price of oil up strongly last night would have helped support the SP, as it is the revenue from Galoc which underpins it. These Gas field in Turkey look like Rats and mice stuff to me, although I understand the Gas price over there makes these fields economic

A high Spec drill in the Phillipines would create real SP action

Oh the thrill of an elephant hunt.:D

[boysy]

I think you are being a bit harsh on the Turkish assets they look like they could be a major contributor to the bottom line if this batch of drilling is as successful as the last round. No doubt the serious money lies in the pines service contracts but turkey will no doubt add reasonable if not significantly to the bottom line. Oel needs to go beyond mearly hunting for elephants they need to develop what they already have within there grasp and hopefully they are committed to developing the finds they have already found. That reserve re assessment should be out any time now one would think. good end to the day closed at 11 cents looks like there is some decent support at or above 10 cents though hopefully this will not have to be tested in the next wee while.

[boysy]

Finger crossed galoc keeps pumping and online for the entire quarter as this could possibly mean an increase in the cash held even after all of the expected cash outflows.

Some looming deadlines for oels service contracts

-SC 69 2D seismic by November 2010
-SC 51 - 1 exploration well by dec 2010
-SC 50 - 2 wells in the calauit field by march 2011

it sure is shaping up to be an interesting year am hoping to hear some news in the next few weeks regarding galoc phase #2 / Galoc reserve reassessment or hopefully some farm out news. Would be interesting if oel went at SC 50 with a EWT sometime as was hinted at in the quarterly relating to SC50 "ongoing activities include monitoring the rig market and actively seeking partners to participate in this development"

[jdg]

stuck fast at 10c. we really need some news. pleanty on the horizon, let's hope it's good. the reserves numbers are key, in my view.

-j

[boysy]

yep needs to gain some traction hopefully we can hear some news about farmout of sc 51 this should be the main priority. Add to the mix galoc and turkey drills and plenty of upside ( including sc 55)and limited downside in the future. Poo back up too 80 odd though poo only seems to affect galoc when it goes down as does oel strange it doesnt work the other way.

[shasta]

yep needs to gain some traction hopefully we can hear some news about farmout of sc 51 this should be the main priority. Add to the mix galoc and turkey drills and plenty of upside ( including sc 55)and limited downside in the future. Poo back up too 80 odd though poo only seems to affect galoc when it goes down as does oel strange it doesnt work the other way.

At least OEL is finding support at 10c, a rather obvious support level (even though 10.5c was previous resistance).

Remember GPC gets the Brent oil price (sold at a slight discount, thought to be around 2-3%)

Lost the website to all the oil prices, if anyone has a good source, please post it!

[boysy]

well no news is good news usually in reguards to galoc i guess the ndo dp fall cannot be attributed to problems at galoc but will be interested as to who was bailing out late friday. Looks like turkey is a key focus for the operator of the thrace field in turkey it looks as though soon we shall have a second source of income though modest in size. It has to be a good sign that they are talking about increasing the facilities if Yolboyu‐1 comes though with the goods. It looks as though we are in safe hands in turkey wit a 100% hit rate so far and on the transatlantic website they are mentioning getting 2 siesmic teams working at one on different portions of the thrace field this has to be good thing as the field is not yet fuly mapped with 3d and it seems the larger plays have yet to have 3d siesmic done in the SE portion of the edirne licence.

[boysy]

A very interesting link it shows the current edirne flow rates and mentions gas has been produced since december and what they expect flow rates will be. aparently flow rates are 7000 mcfgpd as of the middle of feb.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/189812-transatlantic-petroleum-s-interesting-turkish-delight?source=feed

[boysy]

new presenation out from oel very interesting read a bit of new information well worth a read
-galoc still pumping 10-11 k bopd
-Turkey phase 3 and 4 in the pipeline
-no mention of sc50
-SC51 being touted as the next big thing

[Rabbi]

new presenation out from oel very interesting read a bit of new information well worth a read
-galoc still pumping 10-11 k bopd
-Turkey phase 3 and 4 in the pipeline
-no mention of sc50
-SC51 being touted as the next big thing

Yes, I just had a quick read. OEL in a good position with no debt, cash flow from Galoc and $18m in cash.
When these Turkey gas wells come on stream hopefully they won't need to capital raise again for a while. I'm assuming BHPB will free carry OEL for a slice of the action in the Phillipines. There are some enormous prospects but no doubt BHPB will do due due diligence on the Seismic before commmiting to any exploration.

[boysy]

with galoc pumping at 10-11k bopd then they should of pumped out close to 120,000 net to oel so far this quarter. The cashflow should more than cover expences this quarter add to that the fact that oel are going to get reimbursed for the 3d shoot to the tune of 6 odd million from bhpb. This coming quarter should be a ripper for oel hopefully galoc keeps pumping and a bit of cashflow comes through from turkey and a farm in in sc51 could be the bonus.

[boysy]

some buy depth lining up the turkey jv partner up strongly for the last few days are we expecting a positive announcement soon

[shasta]

OEL currently @ 11.5c on nearly 4m traded

Chart looking good too

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/imageChart.axd?BI=2&COMT=index&OVS=XJO&TF=D6&TIMA1=20&TIMA2=20&s=OEL

[boysy]

would be good to end well up for the day hope the buying continues should help if our jv in turkey sp keeps heading north thats for sure

[boysy]

should hear quite a bit of info this week an update on the drilling of Yolboyu‐1 one would think and an update on the Edirne Gas Plant should be recieved early this week as well. Bring on the drilling campaign on the edirne licence the operator certainly looks keen to spill the drill bit so hopefully we should get some further finds and successes then add into the mix a sc51 farmout hopefully the rise in the poo and interest in the pines cant be a bad thing short term for the farm out prospects either

[kura]

I got a letter in mail today (Must have been sent to all OEL holders) from EUROZ Securities (some WA based sharebrokers, who I've never dealt with before) advising that they have a recent research report on Otto, and inviting me to email them to ask for it. However not wanting to be inundated with lots of other stuff from them, I just thought I'd ask if anyone does take up their offer, if you could please post it here.

A second thing that has nothing to do with Otto specifically, but more of a general interest, is that I have this audio article on offshore drilling technology (MP3) the article is approx 7.3MB and lasts for about 15 minutes, I can't seem to upload it to here, maybe someone can advise me what I'm doing wrong.

[shasta]

Might be a size limit, 7.3mb is quite large

[jdg]

i didn't get the letter, kura.

But gee this really is turning into a nice ride. and if all goes well, there is still a lot on the horizon to keep us going. we're still waiting for the revised reserves estimate. oil is flowing at a good rate and (touch wood) has had none of the unlucky disruptions of the past. and based on my back of envelope figures i think it's a certainty, boysy, that the bank balance will be considerably higher this quarter than last (even with significant expenditure), turkey due to come online any day now, and the wildcat of Yolboyu‐1 about to tell its secrets. the joker in the pack is a potential farm in of sc-51, and that would really put a rocket under the sp. all-in-all i'm a very happy holder.

-j

[boysy]

certainly does look like the stars are aligning and any development in the region whether it be through ndo or kik or such like producing oil in the region has got to help heat up the area around the pines. Oel certainly has come a long way from last year and only now are people starting to see the promise which this stock could have. Plenty more upside one would think considering junior oilers are still not loved if things start heating up in the pines and the majors start moving in oel are well placed to benifit holding much acreage. bring on some announcements we all know a few should be immenant thats for sure.

[boysy]

good little pop this mornig would be good if it could breach the 12 cent mark today hopefully with a bit of good news and a stable oil price the sp can extend gains. Am expecting news any day now round the galoc reserve reestimates from nido. Then there is turkey we should be due a report by about now .

[boysy]

good to also see buyers almost out numbering sellers 2:1 a big buyer build up from 10-11 cents which is good to see

[jdg]

good little pop this mornig would be good if it could breach the 12 cent mark today hopefully with a bit of good news and a stable oil price the sp can extend gains. Am expecting news any day now round the galoc reserve reestimates from nido. Then there is turkey we should be due a report by about now .

boysy, has there been any other word around the reserves estimate since NDO's statement contradicting OEL's several months ago? from memory NDO said they would have it by Feb.

has there been anything said about it since?

(would love to see it hit .12 today).

-j

[boysy]

no mention of time frames other than early in the 1st quarter of 2010 they started in sep 2009 should be due any time now based on those figures. Wonder how the siesmic is going in sc 55 and hopefully farmout talks progressing in sc 51 a well needed by dec 2010 that could be an interesting play add into that turkey where they are going to have 2 siesmic teams on the go at once the operator must be rather confident of further finds thats for sure

[jdg]

cheers, boysy. it can't be too far away - and let's hope it comes back with a juicy upgrade.
nice to see a 12c finish on pretty good volumes.

-j

[boysy]

yep cant be far away and we should have the turkey on the go by the end of the month. Good finish on 11.5 and with a few buyers starting to step up and offer a bit more this has to be good news. Would be good to get that reserve reassement out of the way and hopefully start a bit more excitement about galoc phase #2 as an upgrade would be a major step towards an investment decision.Galoc still pumping away , siesmic in sc 55, siesmic in our turkey licence things are all go at otto hopefully we can hear a bit of an update about the farm out of sc51 even just to confirm if any one is sitting round the bargaining table.

[Rabbi]

OEL is finding resistance at 12 cents and without some sort of positive announcement this will continue. Investors like companies that under promise and over deliver.
Otto looks to have a good management team so I can't imagine them sitting on their hands.

[boysy]

yep we should be due for news any day thats for sure plenty of shares changing hands still though

[boysy]

just going over the march presentation it seems as though up to 23 wells are to be drilled this year in turkey if phase #2 3 and 4 get the go ahead. The operators seems like they are halfway through phase #2 i guess the decision to go further is dependent apon the results of the current deeper well currently being drilled. One would think if they keep up a high ht rate and those wells come through much the plant will have to be upgraded to accomodate the excess the new capacity. Wonder what sort of production rate they would get if the wells maintain a high level of success. Currently targeting 10-14 mmcf a day perhaps double or more as this rate was for 8-10 modest gas finds so far. It certainly does look as though turkey could very well become the major breadwinner along with galoc by this time next year. Thoughs ?

[Rabbi]

The latest presentation indicates a seven well drilling program in Turkey for phase two, the rest of the program being contingent-one would assume-on the success of phase two.

The Galoc development in the presentation is typically non-committal with wording such as
"likely 1-2 new wells" and "Possible phase 2 start up cy2011."

The presentation, to a greater degree, promotes the Philippines acreage and prospects, but this is all "pie in the sky" unless they get a definite farm in partner.
Like most presentations everything is contingent on everything else.

More information from the company on Turkey must surely be imminent.

[boysy]

very interesting to see how the 2 recent/ current siesmic programs overlap. There would be no point in bhp asking for siesmic over the hawke eye prospect as it was done 3 months previously. Looks as though there are 4 major plays that bhp are interested in sc 55.
the targets

first siesmic - 600 km over the hawke eye prospect and B1
second siesmic - 1800 km over - B1 , A4 , A3

the relative sizes of each prospect off ottos own estimates

Hawke eye - 114 mmbl - 1743 mmbl
B1 - 372 mmbl - 5420 mmbl
A4 - no info available
A3 - 540 mmbl - 9181 mmbl

From these figures its clear to see how big some of these targets are are the potential of each. The 1800 km siesmic should be completed by this time next month clearly it will take time to interperate this but hopefully we can get a bit of new info from the 600 off km siesmic shot in dec/jan.

Clearly these targets cos will be rather low one would thnk but the share size of each and possible oil in place will be enough to generate excitement should bhp elect to farm in and drill one or two prospects.

We can work out some rough conservative calculations

500 mmbl * 10% cos * npv $10 per barrel * 35%(oel post farmout) * 40% recover factor

that gives a npv of around 70 odd million NPV and thats a 500 mmbl target so will be interesting if the siesmic can help us determine the size of the targets and POS. Time will tell but it is an interesting time ahead then add into that the other assets in the pines and hopefully a turkey and possibly phase 3 and 4 get the go ahead.

[shasta]

very interesting to see how the 2 recent/ current siesmic programs overlap. There would be no point in bhp asking for siesmic over the hawke eye prospect as it was done 3 months previously. Looks as though there are 4 major plays that bhp are interested in sc 55.
the targets

first siesmic - 600 km over the hawke eye prospect and B1
second siesmic - 1800 km over - B1 , A4 , A3

the relative sizes of each prospect off ottos own estimates

Hawke eye - 114 mmbl - 1743 mmbl
B1 - 372 mmbl - 5420 mmbl
A4 - no info available
A3 - 540 mmbl - 9181 mmbl

From these figures its clear to see how big some of these targets are are the potential of each. The 1800 km siesmic should be completed by this time next month clearly it will take time to interperate this but hopefully we can get a bit of new info from the 600 off km siesmic shot in dec/jan.

Clearly these targets cos will be rather low one would thnk but the share size of each and possible oil in place will be enough to generate excitement should bhp elect to farm in and drill one or two prospects.

We can work out some rough conservative calculations

500 mmbl * 10% cos * npv $10 per barrel * 35%(oel post farmout) * 40% recover factor

that gives a npv of around 70 odd million NPV and thats a 500 mmbl target so will be interesting if the siesmic can help us determine the size of the targets and POS. Time will tell but it is an interesting time ahead then add into that the other assets in the pines and hopefully a turkey and possibly phase 3 and 4 get the go ahead.

As these are deep water permits, the costs of drilling them would be huge, maybe $US20-30m per well.

OEL will definitely need a "wealthy friend" to farm into these permits & pay the costs.

Upside for OEL is in any farm out agreement, ie the likes of BHP pays 100% of costs of 1st well for 70% working interest, & an agreement to fund a 2nd well, if the 1st is a discovery.

[boysy]

will be interesting to see how the first lot of siesmic in sc 55 comes out whether it can help define the hakeye and b1 prospects should be a very interesting next quarterly thats for sure

[boysy]

latest from transatlantic

"Thrace Basin
On the Edirne license, the Company has drilled the Yolboyu-1, a 6,500-foot exploratory well targeting deeper gas potential to the south of the existing 3D seismic survey. Based upon initial evaluation of the first logs, the well appears to have encountered pay."

[boysy]

so much news out today from otto though none is coming from them directly more so there partners

- Galoc reserves up grade from nido -http://www.hotcopper.com.au/announcementFiles/2010/NDO/d4e60bcf-e9d9-438f-b5bc-3e64bd82bb7b-NDO484602.pdf
-Yolboyu-1 update - http://www.transatlanticpetroleum.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=389856&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Provides-Operations-Update-and-Conference-Call
- Then good morning vietnam - First private petrol company officially launches - http://vietnambusiness.asia/first-private-petrol-company-officially-launches/

Plenty of news to digest though all of it seems positive wonder what will happen to the sp

[jdg]

hey boysy, i have been so busy of late that i haven't been able to catch up with developments here. i haven't even looked at the reserves upgrade - how did it turnout? i did see the result from Yolboyu - a bit inconclusive, really. although that was always a wild punt, it would have been nice to see it come up with something special...or even a definitive answer. next news is gas being sold by the end of the month. i'm remain very happy with OEL, and may look to increase my holding.
-j

[boysy]

galoc reserves would increase from 1.46mmbl to over 2.5 mmbl based on nidos figures this is very exciting stuff but the market didnt move a notch plenty of good work being done in the back ground . About the recent turkey release im not sure what to read from it one would think they would either know if they had found something commercial or not i guess they need to do more work there but bring on first gas in the plant should be happening anyday now.

[boysy]

transatlantic share price on the up recently hopefully this good news should spread once we get turkey gas online. Then theres sc 55 should get an update on progress and finally a farm out of sc 51 or sc 50 could be on the cards one would think if the veitnam foray is in fact true.

[boysy]

looks as though things are looking on the up and up for oel

- first gas sales this week from turkey
- Update on sc 55 siesmic progress hopefully
- An update must be due on sao nam parnership
- higher oil price must make the other farm out look incresingly economic - sc 50, sc 51 ?
- Galoc update progress on facility upgrade decision ? possible devlopment decision ?

So many questions left unanswered so much upside at this point in time i just hope the company doesnt take the foot off the gas

[boysy]

MANILA, Philippines?The Consortium Operating Service Contract 51 in offshore Argao, Cebu, is spending $36 million to drill an exploration well in the area in the fourth quarter this year.

?No wells have ever been drilled in the waters between Cebu and Bohol, and [its] success could open up a new oil and gas province outside of northwest Palawan,? said consortium member Trans-Asia Oil and Energy Development Corp.

In a filing with the Philippine Stock Exchange, minority investor Trans-Asia Oil said it expected the consortium to begin drilling activities in the East Visayan basin by December 2010.

Australian firm Otto Energy Ltd. has an 80-percent interest and is the operator of the field, while the balance is shared among Alcorn Gold Resources Corp., Trans-Asia Oil and PetroEnergy Resources Corp.

SC 51, which covers 3,320 square kilometer in the East Visayan basin, contains the Argao area, which is reportedly a ?drill-ready prospect.?

http://business.inquirer.net/money/topstories/view/20100404-262381/Oil-firm-to-drill-well-in-offshore-Cebu

80% * 36 million = $29 million is ottos share. One would think they would like to farm out a bit of this will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

[jdg]

thanks so much for the info, boysy. we must be in for an announcement today (potentially with multiple bits of news). by december OEL may have the funds to go it alone in SC51 - but what a punt that would be. if she came in we would be dancing for days. there's going to be no shortage of excitement in the next 12 months. i'm still considering substantially increasing my holding.

-j

[boysy]

yes jdg i increased my holdings last week glad i got my main holding at 6-7 cents. But i absolutely agree a announcement needs to come out just putting to rest so many questions that have been put out there we have

-sao nam whats the deal ?
-Turkish update gas should be online this week first gas sales this week
- SC 55 siesmic progress any update , perhaps a few nice pictures from hawkeye siesmic ( 600km siesmic SC 55 finished in dec 2009)
- SC 51 what is happening with this ?
- Galoc facility upgrade ?
- Does otto agree with nido galoc reserve upgrade ?
- Results of latest tukish drills ?
- How things are going in regards to otherfarm out opportunities ?

so many questions , so much possibility yet the sp seems to have stagnated at around 11 cents still severly undervalued. The increase in oil price must have the economics of all projects looking better and better.

[jdg]

boysy, i share your frustration with the lack of announcements. we only tend to get particularly grumpy when we are kept in the dark and things aren't going well. but full disclosure is vital at all times. much of what we have been learning from the media and JV partners should be coming to us from OEL. moreover, drilling updates and other information has also been lacking or tardy. i'm baffled. i like the under promise and over deliver approach, but OEL is testing the limits. at this rate the quarterly will be the size of the bible (but hopefully less ambiguous).

-j

[boysy]

Too true jdg ive written numerous emails to otto still no reply. To put things in perspective wrote nido an email and jo williams replied within 20 minutes. There is just so much info released by media organisations relating to otto and otto have not shedany light on them . I like you expect alot of updates in the quarterly on all fronts it will be a few pages to cover everthing thats fr sure. The sp is going sideways i can only put this done to the lack of announcements we should have had at least 2 or 3 by now based on announcements from other partners in the projects which have released to the philipene stock exchange. I just hope they are too busy on all fronts to write us an email but the fact they dont operate any of the projects they are in doesnt add up in my books. If you keep your sh in the dark the sp will suffer as we have seen a firming oil price and a project about to come online and the sp has been stagnant as of late. Come on otto we need some announcements before the quarterly is it too much to ask for updates on all fronts

[boysy]

first gas from turkey ann out in 15 mins

[Rabbi]

first gas from turkey ann out in 15 mins

and SP goes down....:mad ;:

A farm in for SC 51 would create some excitement, meanwhile Otto building revenue.

[shasta]

and SP goes down....:mad ;:

A farm in for SC 51 would create some excitement, meanwhile Otto building revenue.

From the actual announcement

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OEL&E=ASX&N=486716


Gas production from the Edirne licence will be sold via a dedicated sales arrangement to AKSA Dogalgaz Toptan Satis A.S.

Otto has elected not to participate in the Gas Plant ownership and will pay a processing fee to the Joint Operators.

The fact OEL aren't participating in the gas plant & have to pay a processing fee, is not something we have previously been told, clearly the market focussed on this!

I would have thought OEL would want part ownership, especially as they are apart of the next phase of exploration drilling for more gas.

If Yolboyu-1 is a discovery, they will need to build a new gas plant to extract the gas from this deeper well

Again using the known midpoints to calculate the daily gas revenue for OEL:

12mmscf/d x $US7.50 x 35/100 = $US31,500/day before processing fees

Lets say 60 days online this quarter (1/4/10 - 30/6/10)

$US31,500 x 60 = $US1,890,000 - say 10% processing fees = $US1,701.000

$US1,701,000 / .93 = (AUS/USD) = ~ $A1.8m this quarter

OEL will earn enough gas revenue to fund there share of the gas exploration programme

[Corporate]

Shasta, I've read previously (i'm not sure where) that OEL would not own a share of the gas plant.

[boysy]

clearly a hard crowd to please are us otto holders the announcement while expected i though would allay some fears yet the sp goes down. The quarterly report should be out soon and i am lead to belive the cash figure will look very good indeed. Then there bhp sc 55 on the back burner, hopefully some progress on sc 51 farmout. Two streams of revenue , turkey exploration will pay for itslef from here on out lets hope the 2 teams doing siesmic find some more targets to drill and hopefully an upgrade of the facility will be in the pipeline to accomodate the extra gas found.
- Shasta they have said from the get go they they were never going to contribute towards the cost of the gas plant im not sure why this would now effect the sp.
- Also about yolboyu if it is a discovery i belive they will simply add to existing infrastructure to accomodate the excess gas thats how i see it anyway

its hard to see a negative in the announcement i guess we will have to wait until the quarterly to see what is happening in all the other geographical areas.

[boysy]

from last quarterly

TURKEY
• Edirne Licence, Thrace Basin
• OEL 35% Interest
• Joint Operators: Transaltantic Mediterranean Int. (55%) and Petraco (10%)
Gas Sales Agreement
• Gas Sales Agreement signed with AKSA Dogalgaz Toptan Satis A.S (AKSA) of Turkey for the sale
of all gas produced from the Edirne Licence. The agreement is for 5 years
• The gas produced by the EJV will be sold downstream of the gas plant at a 15% discount to the
Industrial Interruptible Tariff benchmark set by BOTAS. Otto expects that the discounted gas price
in the short to medium term will be between US$7.00 to US$8.00/ GJ. The discounted gas price
will change over time reflecting amendments in the tariffs set by BOTAS.
Gas Gathering (Tolling) Agreement
• Otto has elected to not participate in the construction or ownership of the Gas Plant and is
negotiating access with the Joint Operators (PEMI and Petraco) to process gas owned by Otto.
This agreement is expected to be signed in Q1 2010
• First gas from the Edirne Gas Plant is expected to be delivered towards the end of Q1 2010
Exploration
• 3D seismic survey covering 100 km2 completed by the Joint Operators
• Drilling of the Kumluk-1 exploration well commenced on 15 January 2010 with potential for up to 6
more exploration/appraisal wells to be completed in the current drilling programme.
Well Target Working Interest
(%)
Remarks
Kumluk-1 Gas 35.00 Exploration
Kartal-1 Gas 35.00 Exploration
Somurcali-1 Gas 35.00 Exploration
Ortakci-2 Gas 35.00 Exploration
Yolboyu-1 Gas 35.00 Exploration
Bademlik-1 Gas 35.00 Exploration
Ortakci-3 Gas 35.00 Appraisal

http://research.iress.com.au/ids/old/20100121/01030571.pdf?uid=8FBA51454DDC74C8939CBF749A7F4F821 B3A0000611677C2D4AAE340F1AB0000F4120000&ppv=

[boysy]

expecting the quarterly in around 2 weeks hopefully the cash balance increases as it should and a bit more info on all fronts would be welcomed. 10.5 still seems cheap guess we will have to wait for some farm out news before the fireworks

[jdg]

great news about first gas. let's not see how much it earns and hope it doesn't suffer from any start up problems.
i was aware we had not participated in the construction of the gas plat, but have we been told how much processing is going to cost us? surely with gas flowing this has been negotiated by now? apart from BHP saying they are going to proceed on the back of the seismic, the real news now is in what is going to happen at SC51. damn, it would be great to have some positive news there.

-j

[boysy]

Yep great about first gas wont show up in this quarterly though they will have to mention how things have progressed to date. Galoc should of had a ripper performance high poo and higher production hopefully so we should have high reciepts from gpc. Then there is bhp wouldnt be supprised if they have paid a portion of siesmic costs stright to otto so the cash balance hopefully looks a bit better than last quarterly. SC 51 farm out would be great news though they wouldnt wait for the quarterly to announce such a sensitive piece of info hopefully the terms are decent for otto . no mention yet of cost of processing gas it would have to be some percentage of gas price recieved dont you think ? i wonder if otto could now buyinto the plant if they wised to do so as there cadh position is looking alot healther as it would cost around US$3.5 million (35% of 10 mill plant cost). Some news on galoc and possible furthrdevelopment would also be good and perhaps a bit more insight if the plant will be increased to handle the extra gas found since the building began at the plant. Some updates on the last few turkish wells should be due anytime now as well. And yet the sp stagnates around 10.5 looks like another good buying opportunity it doesnt look like much premieum has been built in relating to bhp farm in as it should be worth around 20-25 million in back costs alone then theres the free carry on 1 or 2 drills. Now that could put a rocket under the sp

[jdg]

yeah, i presume that the cost would be a percentage of gas produced. no idea what that may be. if the plant is to be expanded on further discoveries - and there has to be a good chance that will occur - what will OEL do? pay for their share, or maintain the current agreement? who knows. it would be pretty straight forward to work out what is best with all of the relevant numbers, and almost certainly that would be investing in the plant, but how much are OEL going to have to shell out for SC51...? if they have some thoughts of going it alone, then that will take up every last cent they have (and probably then some). where is a company in shining armour ready to free carry us through that one...?

-j

[boysy]

yes very interesting i posted an article on hc about the cost of drilling sc 51 aparently is round US$36 million

http://business.inquirer.net/money/topstories/view/20100404-262381/Oil-firm-to-drill-well-in-offshore-Cebu

The pont about turkey is very interesting though they designed the gas plant with 8 discoveries in mind though i belive they have drilled around 13-14 wells to date all hiting gas though im not sure all have been flow tested. they made not in the last few anns that if yolboyu came in they would have to increase the gas handling capacity of the plant through additional building infrastructure they have been pritty coy about the results from yolboyu but it seems as though they hit gas though it may be sub commercial we shal find out in due course clearly. i would think now they have a better cash flow position they could easily contribute to payment for the plant from here on out though whether they will be able to do so is a different story. Hopefully the quarterly will give us a better understanding of what the company is plannig to do on all fronts.

[boysy]

a very interesting read from transatlantic the operator of otto turkish asset

http://www.transatlanticpetroleum.com/i/pdf/TransAtlantic_Petroleum_Ltd_April_2010.pdf

Things certainly look to be going very wel in turkey 20 wells to be drilled this year and 20 next year.
18 leads mapped that are shallow plays with 3d over all of them
page 11-14 on thrace in particular though page 12 and 13 give a clear indication of what is planned next.
each well pays for itself within 2-6 months

[jdg]

a very good quarterly, and it's great to see the cash position continuing to advance.
the only thing that struck me as a little strange was the fact that the BHP farm-in option agreement was not mentioned even in passing (at least on my first quick reading).

-j

[boysy]

very solid quarterly indded. I think the fact that bhp pouring 20 odd million into siesmic must say it all really. Actions are louder than words at this stage good to see yolboyu-1 not written off either they confirmed they did in fact find gas the next question is it commercial ?

[jdg]

is that the $16.5m held in escrow? i would still have liked to hear something about BHP, even if it reminds investors what is potentially around the corner.
certainly good that yolboyu is still a possible starter. and we should hear what lies beneath somurcali shortly, given it was spudded march 27.

-j

[boysy]

yes held in escrow i guess they dont want arepeat of last time bhp came sniffing and the then ceo siad effectively it was a done deal then the deal fell through. Perhaps otto want to put an empasis on what they can control ie production and bringing online discoveries. The whole bhp situation is the elephant in the corner of the room. We all know how much a farm in would be worth to otto and how much back costs ect we would get back ( around 30 mill is my rough guess) then apply that to the current sp. If BHP do farm in and drill 2 wells i wouldnt be supprised to see the sp at many multiples of the current sp. Good to hear other parties are sniffing around there assets as well though we need to get some pen to paper before this one takes off. The buy side is looking very sad at the moment strange to see really when the prospects of the company are the brightest they have been in some time and they have the cash available to act on any discoveries. Very strange indeed though not a good day to release a quarterly one must say.

[shasta]

yes held in escrow i guess they dont want arepeat of last time bhp came sniffing and the then ceo siad effectively it was a done deal then the deal fell through. Perhaps otto want to put an empasis on what they can control ie production and bringing online discoveries. The whole bhp situation is the elephant in the corner of the room. We all know how much a farm in would be worth to otto and how much back costs ect we would get back ( around 30 mill is my rough guess) then apply that to the current sp. If BHP do farm in and drill 2 wells i wouldnt be supprised to see the sp at many multiples of the current sp. Good to hear other parties are sniffing around there assets as well though we need to get some pen to paper before this one takes off. The buy side is looking very sad at the moment strange to see really when the prospects of the company are the brightest they have been in some time and they have the cash available to act on any discoveries. Very strange indeed though not a good day to release a quarterly one must say.

OEL Quarterly

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OEL&E=ASX&N=487631

Quarterly oil production was 767,315 bbls

Daily Production = 767,315/90 = ~8,500/bopd / 83% uptime = ~10,000/bopd

So Galoc is still producing at a decent rate with OEL's share roughly ~1,900/bopd

[boysy]

thoughts about the quarterly there shasta ?

[shasta]

thoughts about the quarterly there shasta ?

I was pleased with the Quarterly, Galoc ticking along nicely, the Gas production now adding a 2nd revenue stream to OEL.

Both Galoc - Phase 2, & the Edrine gas exploration programs provide future upside & increased revenue

The cashflow statement showed the $21m odd received from BHP whilst it's chicken feed to them, is a major coup for OEL, the fact that BHP didn't walk away & agreed to renegotiate tells me they are wanting to stick around in the Phillipines.

With BHP onboard for just 1 deep water permit (SC55), surely they will be looking at OEL's other permits nearby, should the 3D seismic data confirm the large prospects (Marantao & Hawkeye) from OEL's previous 2D seismic data.

[boysy]

yes i certainly took some good news away from the quarterly the market is thinking otherwise though. Looks as though turkey will be self funding from now and hopefully the other service contracts otto has equity in can get some decent farm out offers. I also think that the fact bhp are stumping up the money to oel out of all the service contracts has to speak volumes. At these prices there is little to no premieum built into the sp about a successful farm in which is looking more and more likely in my humble opinion. Otto certainly have been busy though the sp doesnt seem to be reflecting the good work they are doing and the results they are achieving.

[shasta]

yes i certainly took some good news away from the quarterly the market is thinking otherwise though. Looks as though turkey will be self funding from now and hopefully the other service contracts otto has equity in can get some decent farm out offers. I also think that the fact bhp are stumping up the money to oel out of all the service contracts has to speak volumes. At these prices there is little to no premieum built into the sp about a successful farm in which is looking more and more likely in my humble opinion. Otto certainly have been busy though the sp doesnt seem to be reflecting the good work they are doing and the results they are achieving.

I thought we might have seen 11.5 - 12.0c from the market after the cashflow statement showed the BHP's cash is in the bank

Bad day to announce it i guess

[boysy]

yes the fact that bhp are fronting up with that sort of cash has to be a good sign even if it is peanuts in the grand picture. Interesting to note the top 20% holdings have crept up from 60% to 62 % one would have to think at this price the upside is huge and the downside is not that great. Will we get a valuation on oel perhaps if bhp farms in i mean 10.5 cents we have almost 2.5 in the bank in cash still plenty of oil in the ground at galoc and blue sky potential via SC 55 and the rest. Very interesting indeed i too though this good news would support a higher price than 10.5 but what can you do the market knows best right

[shasta]

yes the fact that bhp are fronting up with that sort of cash has to be a good sign even if it is peanuts in the grand picture. Interesting to note the top 20% holdings have crept up from 60% to 62 % one would have to think at this price the upside is huge and the downside is not that great. Will we get a valuation on oel perhaps if bhp farms in i mean 10.5 cents we have almost 2.5 in the bank in cash still plenty of oil in the ground at galoc and blue sky potential via SC 55 and the rest. Very interesting indeed i too though this good news would support a higher price than 10.5 but what can you do the market knows best right

OEL - Presentation at the Excellence in Oil & Gas Conference (today in Sydney)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OEL&E=ASX&N=487908

Market Cap $118m
Net Cash/(Debt) $23m
EV = $95m

NB, SC55 which BHP are funding the seismic for, has 16 prospects/leads (as per presentation)

To look out for in the next quarterly:

1.Oil production = 90days x 10,000bopd = 900,000 x 80% uptime = est 720,000/bbls (approx 135,000 net OEL)
Assuming Brent @ $US70/bbl @ AUD/USD 0.90 = Gross revenue of ~$A9.5m to OEL

2. Gas production should be close to 100% online (lets say 90% uptime*, & a 10% processing fee)
Assuming 12mmscf/d @ $US7.50 x 80* days x 35% @ AUD/USD 0.90, less 10% = Gross revenue of ~$2.5m to OEL

3. Galoc - Phase 2 FID (For 1 or 2 wells)

Should be a good quarter for OEL, lets hope the weather stay fine & the uptime rates increase

[Crypto Crude]

Just sat down and hoped to look through the preso and market announcements, and boi...
Theres more to this stock than meets the eye...
steep admin costs though, and steep exploration costs for this quarter which will erase most of the money coming in...

Its true,
If you are building the growth of a company, you have to re-invest those funds back into the business...

OEL is building a future...
They are headed in the right direction......
nothing beats building an oiler on production revenues...
running through the motions....

good summary Shasta...
Are you buying?
:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

Just sat down and hoped to look through the preso and market announcements, and boi...
Theres more to this stock than meets the eye...
steep admin costs though, and steep exploration costs for this quarter which will erase most of the money coming in...

Its true,
If you are building the growth of a company, you have to re-invest those funds back into the business...

OEL is building a future...
They are headed in the right direction......
nothing beats building an oiler on production revenues...
running through the motions....

good summary Shasta...
Are you buying?
:cool:
.^sc

Im not buying anything at the moment, still have the ongoing saga with ASB Sec - a/c frozen

I'm not working at the moment either, taking some time out to sort some health issues.

OEL would be my 2nd stock i'd be buying though...

[Crypto Crude]

fair enough shasta
what would be number one?
It better not be NDO...:D
:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

fair enough shasta
what would be number one?
It better not be NDO...:D
:cool:
.^sc

Nope, but it has CSG projects (not in Oz), Geothermal & Natural gas projects, & some funky Hythane projects

[Crypto Crude]

Oh yes....EDE...
good to see theres some spec in you still shasta...
:cool:
.^sc

[boysy]

Oel down on an up day fundamentals looking good oil up overnight it doesnt add up. they are still producing ~1800 bopd net so still getting US$150 k a day then add in turkey lets say 10mmscf @ $8 *35% = $28,000 so still getting very decent revenue a positive quarterly cash balance up , bhp investing significant cash in undertaking survey, Turkey looking the goods they should announce a gas plant upgrade with all the extra gas found since the plants initial design. Then theres the possibility of farmout of sc55 worth around US$150 million to otto last time round. they have since invested more money so if bhp elect to farm in they will get substantial back cost repayment to the tune of US$20-30 million. Further galoc development opportunity. All is boding well for oel the sp on the other hand is looking weak a very different company than one a year ago am still looking to accumulate more.

[boysy]

very good listening on br radio

http://www.brr.com.au/event/65366

- turkey producing 12 mmcf a day
-upgrade decision due end this quarter
-initial results of 600 km siesmic done in dec due this quarter
-Galoc phase 2 decision expected this Quarter
-Company being vey coy about BHP no mention of them but when questioned about farmouts they did not mention SC 55 other than they were holding funds in escrow to complete the funding of survey.
-Paul Moore is certainly sounding the part not overstating anything but giving clear facts which is good

[boysy]

Great link below from the good oil conference. Gives some snippits of info paul moore mentioning gas at turkey has exceeded 15 mmcf on one of the days lets just hope the platau rate is at the higher ends of expectations currently around 12 mmcf. He also mentions multiple times the fact they are contemplating a plant upgrade already this has to be a good thing.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/65391/otto-energy-limited-explorer-developer-and-producer-effectively-delivering-portfolio-growth?popup=true&wl=363

[Rabbi]

Great link below from the good oil conference. Gives some snippits of info paul moore mentioning gas at turkey has exceeded 15 mmcf on one of the days lets just hope the platau rate is at the higher ends of expectations currently around 12 mmcf. He also mentions multiple times the fact they are contemplating a plant upgrade already this has to be a good thing.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/65391/otto-energy-limited-explorer-developer-and-producer-effectively-delivering-portfolio-growth?popup=true&wl=363

Having listened to the audio, I agree, Paul Moore certainly understated the OEL story.
If the SP is to spike it will be on an expectation of future earnings, so maybe the market awaits the numbers from next quarter when Turkey gas is factored in.

[boysy]

He cerainly does sound like he is working hard and enjoying being part of the team at otto. Turkey will never provide the hype or potential of the pines permits but it still is going to add a meaningful other source of income than galoc. Heading into the typhoon season lets just hope that galoc continue to pump and the systems in place can handle what the weather may do. I think the sp will only spike on news of a farm out the deadline is running out quick for SC 51 you would have to think they would be putting most of there effort into making this happen. Would be good to have an updated reserve estimate from turkey as well looks as though they will expand the gas plant already if they continue to find gas at the current rate.

[boysy]

New valuation out from euroz well worth a read currently values oel @ $0.15

http://www.ottoenergy.com/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1458&EID=44871371&PageName=Euroz Report - March 2010

[shasta]

New valuation out from euroz well worth a read currently values oel @ $0.15

http://www.ottoenergy.com/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1458&EID=44871371&PageName=Euroz Report - March 2010

OEL - SC55, Revisions granted (OEL 85%)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OEL&E=ASX&N=488945

SC55 - contains the Hawkeye & Marantao prospects & up to 16 prospects/leads all up

BHP was funding the 1800km2 3D seismic program, so the timeframe are dependent on what BHP finds & wants to proceed with.

Here is the SC55 ann to refresh the memory

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OEL&E=ASX&N=476756

[Corporate]

OEL is sitting firmly at the top of my buying list. I never thought I would see sub 10c again!

Two income streams and BHP on board for $20m of 3d seismic. Add in other prospects and phase 2 of galoc makes OEL worth more than the current market cap of $100m.

$23m of cash in the bank.

Maybe 60m options at 5c which expire in July are holding OEL back a little?

[shasta]

OEL is sitting firmly at the top of my buying list. I never thought I would see sub 10c again!

Two income streams and BHP on board for $20m of 3d seismic. Add in other prospects and phase 2 of galoc makes OEL worth more than the current market cap of $100m.

$23m of cash in the bank.

Maybe 60m options at 5c which expire in July are holding OEL back a little?

Thats not much dillution when OEL has a billion shares

[boysy]

it does look rather strange when compare to its peers we now have 2 streams of income i admit if it falls any further i might be tempted to sell some ndo to get some more otto. People fail to realise that bhp have given money to perform the survery you wouldnt do this if you didnt think there was a good chance to find something you lie would you. Pleanty of cheap upside in turkey if they continue to find gas a plant upgrade will have to go ahead and with galoc thats more high risk but in turn more upside. Still 6.5 odd million barrels of 1p left at galoc via ndo quarterly this figure is almost the same as ottos estimate of 1.4 mmbl 2p net to otto (1.4/0/18). Turkey is more than self funding so turkish revenue can cover addition expenditure as well as admin costs. that leaves galc to cover other expenditure. With the poo rising some of the more marginal fields SC 50 must start to be coming back into focus will be very interesting perhaps success at Tindalo for nido will help spur some farm in activity in sc 50. Looking to add more at these levels.

[boysy]

101 - 23 = $78 million EV -

$78 million for ~1800 bopd@$80 and ~5mmcf@$8 still recieving around 200k gross no debt , plenty of upside, Plenty more NPV positive leads in tukey looking like both turkey and the pines current production will be expanded. Sure the 60 mill options will be dilutionary but as shasta pointed out its 6% and we will recieve another $3 million to add to cash balance. As long as they can incrementally add to the cash balance and continue to spend money on upgrading facilities and exploration targets via siesmic im happy. BHP still a possibility its hard to think a few months ago the sp was 2-2.5 cents higher and now the picture looks even better than then good things take time people. people couldnt see the value at 6 cents the same picture is now occuring at a higher price we have come a long way since the sp was 6 cents though at the current sp not much more than increase in cash held reflects the change. Galoc uptime much higher, higher oil price, revenue from turkey. Its top of my buy list as well then if bhp farm ins the current price will seem silly in retrospect.

[shasta]

it does look rather strange when compare to its peers we now have 2 streams of income i admit if it falls any further i might be tempted to sell some ndo to get some more otto. People fail to realise that bhp have given money to perform the survery you wouldnt do this if you didnt think there was a good chance to find something you lie would you. Pleanty of cheap upside in turkey if they continue to find gas a plant upgrade will have to go ahead and with galoc thats more high risk but in turn more upside. Still 6.5 odd million barrels of 1p left at galoc via ndo quarterly this figure is almost the same as ottos estimate of 1.4 mmbl 2p net to otto (1.4/0/18). Turkey is more than self funding so turkish revenue can cover addition expenditure as well as admin costs. that leaves galc to cover other expenditure. With the poo rising some of the more marginal fields SC 50 must start to be coming back into focus will be very interesting perhaps success at Tindalo for nido will help spur some farm in activity in sc 50. Looking to add more at these levels.

Quite right Boysy, the fact NDO/KIK have another producing field in the area must add some value to OEL's permits surrounding them.

What the market isn't factoring in is the Galoc phase 2 - with two additional wells to bump up production by 4-8k/bopd

Even taking the lower end 4,000bopd x .1879 = an extra ~750bopd net to OEL x $US70/bbl = $US52,500 per day revenue

Thats on top of there ~1,800/bopd revenue already

[Corporate]

boysy / shasta you have both made some good points. I think another one is the Paul Moore factor. I feel he is slowly turning OEL around from the Alex Parks days..

[boysy]

yes very good point there corporate i belive paul moore is walking the walk while alex parks was ttalking the talk. Just look at the different way they have gone about bhp possibly farming into to sc 55 alex park basically said it was a done deal then it wasnt. Paul moore is under stating the bhp involvement he only talks about it when directly asked and isnt using it as a badge of honour which i belive is what alex parkswould do. Paul moore seems to be actually getting the work done behind the scenes lets just hope like an iceburg 90% of the work is being done with very little mention. The next major coup would be a farm into SC 50 or SC 51 then later on this year if BHP do elect to farm in that would be a company maker i belive. But in the meantime plenty in hand to get up to including getting phase 2 at galoc and edirne underway.

[shasta]

boysy / shasta you have both made some good points. I think another one is the Paul Moore factor. I feel he is slowly turning OEL around from the Alex Parks days..

I thought Alex Parks did alright at the helm, i mean he sourced the Galoc project & raised alot of capital, & promoted the company well.

Most of the problems that smashed the share price were out of his control.

GPC as Galoc operator made many mistakes, bad weather, GPC's debt, slump in oil price

Probably the only thing he did oversee & was responsible for was the BHP farm out agreement which lapsed

Santa Rosa was a cheap entry low risk high reward project, & perhaps Gazatta in Italy was a poor project choice.

[boysy]

The other thing i think paul moore has overseen is the fact that otto is a small company and needs to concentrate on specific areas i like the fact that resources can be funneled into an area and achive measurable results the sharpening geographic focus is something i see as necessary as we only have enough income to actively go down 1 or 2 different areas.

[boysy]

sp getting hammered the fundamentals looking better and better whats the deal hopefully an ann can help ease some of the nerves

[shasta]

sp getting hammered the fundamentals looking better and better whats the deal hopefully an ann can help ease some of the nerves

Dow was down, but oil was up - what gives?

Hey Boysy i see you missed out on the top 20 on Sharescene, must have just missed the cut!

[boysy]

to be honest shasta i dont even remember entering my bad what do you think of the current sp more cash ,more production, more oil in the ground, gas being produced and sold in turkey yet the sp is being driven down ?

[boysy]

and the volume comes back on the buy side and the price loks to be stabilising what is going on with the sp and the the buyer and seller a bit of manipulation perhaps seems bizzar

[shasta]

to be honest shasta i dont even remember entering my bad what do you think of the current sp more cash ,more production, more oil in the ground, gas being produced and sold in turkey yet the sp is being driven down ?

I went from 2nd to 13th i think, but got an email informing me i won, i had picked ESI, KIK & NDO

Well the DOW dropped just over 150 points, but oil was slightly up, now OEL get the Brent price which is currently around $US87/bbl, so with the discount they must be getting around $US80/bbl or $A87/bbl, not bad coin.

OEL is technically looking weak, but on realtively low volume, perhaps some profit taking going on?

Hopefully it can hold with some kind of support at 9c

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/imageChart.axd?BI=2&COMT=index&OVS=XJO&TF=D6&TIMA1=20&TIMA2=20&s=OEL

[boysy]

yeah it found some support this arvo suddenly some big orders come in on the buy side it all looks very strange to me hoepfully the buy orders wil stay there its a bit like a yo yo i guess a few peoples stop losses being hit

[boysy]

someone got some cheap ones for 9.1 yesterday i guess people being stop lossed out we should hear a turkey update sometime this week. Transatlantic up over 6% overnight lets just hope that news is good and released soon. Poo up again bear in mind we get a price for galoc oil its a discounted brent price and brent up to $88 barrel this could mean we are geting between 80-85 barrel we should still be getting ~1750 barrels so still US$150 k a day and around US$40 k from turkey . Still looking cheap hopefully galoc phase #2 gets the go ahead this quarter as done a plant upgrade at edirne.

[boysy]

Transatlantic (operator of edirene gas ) announces planned aquisition in turket in the thrace basin very interesting news you have to wonder this gives the area a big tick

May 04, 2010
Announces Planned Acquisition in Turkey

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TransAtlantic Petroleum Ltd is pleased to announce it has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding ("MOU") with Zorlu Enerji Elektrik Üretim A.S. ("Zorlu") regarding the acquisition of Zorlu's oil and natural gas exploration and production operations in Turkey for a purchase price of $100 million.

Under the terms of the MOU, TransAtlantic Worldwide Ltd. ("TransAtlantic Worldwide"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, would acquire 100% of the voting securities of Amity Oil International Pty. Ltd. ("Amity") and Zorlu Petrogas Petrol Gaz ve Petrokimya Ürünleri Insaat Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. ("Petrogas"), each a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zorlu. Through the acquisition of Amity and Petrogas, TransAtlantic Worldwide would acquire interests ranging from 50% to 100% of 18 exploration licenses and one production lease, consisting of approximately 1.3 million gross acres (1 million net acres) in the Thrace Basin and approximately 730,000 gross and net acres in central Turkey. Current production from the licenses totals an average of approximately 7 million cubic feet of natural gas per day, net to Amity and Petrogas' interest, with an estimated 10 million cubic feet per day of natural gas production awaiting connection to a pipeline. TransAtlantic Worldwide would also acquire other assets in the transaction, including inventory and a drilling rig. Under the terms of the MOU, Zorlu would use $20 million of the purchase price for the construction of pipelines to connect the Amity and Petrogas licenses to local and national natural gas distribution points.

"The acquisition is an important development for us. We gain a strategic partner in Zorlu, one of the leading companies in Turkey. We also build on our presence in the Thrace Basin, obtaining acreage prospective for the shallow gas targets we have successfully developed in Edirne as well as deeper conventional and unconventional gas," said N. Malone Mitchell, 3rd, the Company's Chairman.

The Company plans to mobilize fracture stimulation equipment into the Thrace Basin this summer. The fracture stimulation equipment should enable the Company to develop gas accumulations in the Thrace Basin that would otherwise be uneconomic. "Our plans are to be very active on these licenses, and we hope to significantly increase production and reserves. Having Zorlu as a partner, with its downstream expertise, is an important part of that plan," Mr. Mitchell added.

Under the terms of the MOU, Zorlu would have the right to purchase 100% of the natural gas that TransAtlantic Worldwide develops on the acquired licenses and will have the option to either receive a 5% net profits interest in new wells drilled on the licenses or a 25% participatory working interest, on a well-by-well basis. "We look forward to a long and prosperous relationship with Zorlu," Mr. Mitchell concluded.

The Company plans to finance the purchase price primarily through a bridge line of credit to be entered into between the Company and an affiliate of Mr. Mitchell. The line of credit, which is subject to negotiation of a definitive agreement, the approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange and the approval of the disinterested members of the Company's Board of Directors, would bear interest at Libor plus 2.5%. In addition, for each $1 million drawn on the line of credit, the Company would issue 100,000 common share purchase warrants to the lender. The common share purchase warrants would be exercisable for four years from the date of issuance and would entitle the holder to purchase one common share for each warrant at an exercise price of $6.00 per share. The bridge line of credit would have a term of one year.

The acquisition of Amity and Petrogas is subject to final negotiation of definitive agreements, the approval of each company's respective board of directors, and other customary closing conditions. The Company expects to complete the acquisition of Amity and Petrogas by June 30, 2010. There is no assurance that the Company will be able to successfully negotiate final definitive agreements, obtain all necessary approvals and closing conditions and complete the acquisition of either Amity or Petrogas by June 30, 2010 or at all.

[shasta]

Transatlantic (operator of edirene gas ) announces planned aquisition in turket in the thrace basin very interesting news you have to wonder this gives the area a big tick

May 04, 2010
Announces Planned Acquisition in Turkey

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TransAtlantic Petroleum Ltd is pleased to announce it has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding ("MOU") with Zorlu Enerji Elektrik Üretim A.S. ("Zorlu") regarding the acquisition of Zorlu's oil and natural gas exploration and production operations in Turkey for a purchase price of $100 million.

Under the terms of the MOU, TransAtlantic Worldwide Ltd. ("TransAtlantic Worldwide"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, would acquire 100% of the voting securities of Amity Oil International Pty. Ltd. ("Amity") and Zorlu Petrogas Petrol Gaz ve Petrokimya Ürünleri Insaat Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. ("Petrogas"), each a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zorlu. Through the acquisition of Amity and Petrogas, TransAtlantic Worldwide would acquire interests ranging from 50% to 100% of 18 exploration licenses and one production lease, consisting of approximately 1.3 million gross acres (1 million net acres) in the Thrace Basin and approximately 730,000 gross and net acres in central Turkey. Current production from the licenses totals an average of approximately 7 million cubic feet of natural gas per day, net to Amity and Petrogas' interest, with an estimated 10 million cubic feet per day of natural gas production awaiting connection to a pipeline. TransAtlantic Worldwide would also acquire other assets in the transaction, including inventory and a drilling rig. Under the terms of the MOU, Zorlu would use $20 million of the purchase price for the construction of pipelines to connect the Amity and Petrogas licenses to local and national natural gas distribution points.

"The acquisition is an important development for us. We gain a strategic partner in Zorlu, one of the leading companies in Turkey. We also build on our presence in the Thrace Basin, obtaining acreage prospective for the shallow gas targets we have successfully developed in Edirne as well as deeper conventional and unconventional gas," said N. Malone Mitchell, 3rd, the Company's Chairman.

The Company plans to mobilize fracture stimulation equipment into the Thrace Basin this summer. The fracture stimulation equipment should enable the Company to develop gas accumulations in the Thrace Basin that would otherwise be uneconomic. "Our plans are to be very active on these licenses, and we hope to significantly increase production and reserves. Having Zorlu as a partner, with its downstream expertise, is an important part of that plan," Mr. Mitchell added.

Under the terms of the MOU, Zorlu would have the right to purchase 100% of the natural gas that TransAtlantic Worldwide develops on the acquired licenses and will have the option to either receive a 5% net profits interest in new wells drilled on the licenses or a 25% participatory working interest, on a well-by-well basis. "We look forward to a long and prosperous relationship with Zorlu," Mr. Mitchell concluded.

The Company plans to finance the purchase price primarily through a bridge line of credit to be entered into between the Company and an affiliate of Mr. Mitchell. The line of credit, which is subject to negotiation of a definitive agreement, the approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange and the approval of the disinterested members of the Company's Board of Directors, would bear interest at Libor plus 2.5%. In addition, for each $1 million drawn on the line of credit, the Company would issue 100,000 common share purchase warrants to the lender. The common share purchase warrants would be exercisable for four years from the date of issuance and would entitle the holder to purchase one common share for each warrant at an exercise price of $6.00 per share. The bridge line of credit would have a term of one year.

The acquisition of Amity and Petrogas is subject to final negotiation of definitive agreements, the approval of each company's respective board of directors, and other customary closing conditions. The Company expects to complete the acquisition of Amity and Petrogas by June 30, 2010. There is no assurance that the Company will be able to successfully negotiate final definitive agreements, obtain all necessary approvals and closing conditions and complete the acquisition of either Amity or Petrogas by June 30, 2010 or at all.

After bottoming out at 8.6c, OEL looks like it may close around its intra day high of 9.3c, very good sign given all thats happened today.

[boysy]

indeed i was supprised though it did fall significantly during the greek crisis from 10.5-11 but still a good sign buyers are stepping up to the mark shasta

[boysy]

New presentation out good to see last cargo sold at $86 and Opex fallen from $25 to $17 a barrel. Natural decline can be seen but uptime looks good so far with oil still flowing at ~9200 (~1700 net). Also update from turkey they have acheived 9.7 mmcf from turkey over the first 4 weeks. This update from transatlantic

The Company began selling gas from its Edirne license, where is holds a 55% interest, in early April. Production from the eight producing wells averaged about 9.7 million cubic feet per day for the first month of production. The Company is engaged in a drilling campaign on the Edirne license and is currently drilling Somurcali-1. "The economics from the wells at Edirne are very good, given the shallow depth of the wells and the high gas prices," Mr. Mitchell observed.




http://www.transatlanticpetroleum.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=398972&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Reports-First-Quarter-2010-Financial-Results
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/asx_announcements.asp?id=175028

[shasta]

New presentation out good to see last cargo sold at $86 and Opex fallen from $25 to $17 a barrel. Natural decline can be seen but uptime looks good so far with oil still flowing at ~9200 (~1700 net). Also update from turkey they have acheived 9.7 mmcf from turkey over the first 4 weeks. This update from transatlantic

The Company began selling gas from its Edirne license, where is holds a 55% interest, in early April. Production from the eight producing wells averaged about 9.7 million cubic feet per day for the first month of production. The Company is engaged in a drilling campaign on the Edirne license and is currently drilling Somurcali-1. "The economics from the wells at Edirne are very good, given the shallow depth of the wells and the high gas prices," Mr. Mitchell observed.




http://www.transatlanticpetroleum.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=398972&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Reports-First-Quarter-2010-Financial-Results
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/asx_announcements.asp?id=175028

Euroz Securities has a new research report out, valuing OEL at $0.16

http://www.ottoenergy.com/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1464&EID=24344842&PageName=Euroz Report - OEL 11.May.2010

[boysy]

interesting im sure it has nothing to do with them about to gain a whole bag of options soon enough. Bring on galoc phase 2 and an end to the round of drilling in turkey the latest well somurcali must be in trouble as its taking longer then yolboyu to drill. hopefully they will implement an upgrade to gas facilities once they do a reserve re assesment in turkey following completion of the current round of drilling.

[boysy]

Otto Energy seeks partners to help in drilling Cebu wells


By Amy R. Remo
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 22:27:00 05/14/2010

Filed Under: Energy


AUSTRALIAN FIRM OTTO ENERGY Ltd. is looking for partners to help it drill wells in the Argao prospect in Cebu, which is said to contain commercial quantities of oil.

Otto plans to drill at least one exploration well by December this year, according to its commitments under the exploration program.

The company is expected to spend some $36 million on its planned drilling.

According to the company, the Argao prospect was a mature and drill-ready prospect.

Based on the companys studies, a portion of the Argao prospect may even have eight levels, each containing between 40 and 300 million barrels of oil.

The Argao prospect is in the southern part of Service Contract (SC) 51, and is just one of the 11 prospective oil and gas sites the company earlier identified.

Otto Energy currently holds an 80-percent stake in the license, while the balance is shared among Alcorn Gold Resources Corp., Trans-Asia Oil and PetroEnergy Resources Corp.

SC 51 currently covers some 330,000 hectares over the East Visayan basin. The area consists of the northern and southern parts, which are separated by 80 kilometers.

The large Argao and Bahay prospects are located in the south block, which has about nine additional leads recently defined from modern 2D and 3D seismic data.

Otto earlier did preparatory site surveys of the proposed Argao 1 and Bahay 1 drilling locations in the East Visayan Basin.

The Bahay 1 prospect was also said to have about 100 million barrels of recoverable oil.

[shasta]

Otto Energy seeks partners to help in drilling Cebu wells


By Amy R. Remo
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 22:27:00 05/14/2010

Filed Under: Energy


AUSTRALIAN FIRM OTTO ENERGY Ltd. is looking for partners to help it drill wells in the Argao prospect in Cebu, which is said to contain commercial quantities of oil.

Otto plans to drill at least one exploration well by December this year, according to its commitments under the exploration program.

The company is expected to spend some $36 million on its planned drilling.

According to the company, the Argao prospect was a mature and drill-ready prospect.

Based on the companys studies, a portion of the Argao prospect may even have eight levels, each containing between 40 and 300 million barrels of oil.

The Argao prospect is in the southern part of Service Contract (SC) 51, and is just one of the 11 prospective oil and gas sites the company earlier identified.

Otto Energy currently holds an 80-percent stake in the license, while the balance is shared among Alcorn Gold Resources Corp., Trans-Asia Oil and PetroEnergy Resources Corp.

SC 51 currently covers some 330,000 hectares over the East Visayan basin. The area consists of the northern and southern parts, which are separated by 80 kilometers.

The large Argao and Bahay prospects are located in the south block, which has about nine additional leads recently defined from modern 2D and 3D seismic data.

Otto earlier did preparatory site surveys of the proposed Argao 1 and Bahay 1 drilling locations in the East Visayan Basin.

The Bahay 1 prospect was also said to have about 100 million barrels of recoverable oil.

Wonder if BHP will opt in on this permit, surely they would know the contour of the area by now with all there seismic data

Have we heard the "contains commercial quantities of oil" before, or that its a mature drill ready target?

Sounds very positive, i'd prefer OEL were conservative & quiet about it & let the drilling do the talking.

[boysy]

They need a partner t help drill the target though shasta i guess perhaps they are trying to shake the tree as such and hope bhp stump up beefore somebody else does otto could still maintain significant equity so plenty of upside if this goes ahead as they mentioned before dec 2010 hopefully they will do this and not try and get the doe to push back the timeframe further

[boysy]

Interesting commentary on transatlantic operator of edirne on thrace basin by an analysist

http://www.transatlanticpetroleum.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=399670&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=External-Interview-The-Energy-Report-Highlights-TransAtlantic

a snippit below

TER: Any other areas abroad that present those opportunities?

AM: I really like what I'm seeing in Turkey. Turkey imports 90% of its energy, most of it from Iran and Russia, so you have much higher natural gas prices there. Natural gas is about $8 per mcf (a unit of natural gas equal to one thousand cubic feet of gas), whereas domestically it's $4--$5. I get excited when I see an energy-dependent country that has made it attractive to invest in a largely unexplored area.

TER: Any examples?

AM: TransAtlantic Petroleum Ltd. (TSX:TNP; NYSE:TAT) is a company I'm really excited about. You have a company that at the bottom of the market put together a land package of several million acres in Turkey. They added a couple million acres in Morocco and another 700,000 or so in Romania. TransAtlantic now has a producing asset, the Selmo oil field, that gives it some good cash flow. It has also identified a couple of other areas that are very prospective for both conventional and unconventional natural gas. And it has a new gas play that just started producing in a gas field called the Thrace Basin, where the wells literally pay out in three to six months. I don't even know if they've ever fracked a well in Turkey. TransAtlantic chairman Malone Mitchell and his company have a long history of applying modern technology domestically. TransAtlantic has not only gone to Turkey and put together a great land package, but they're also taking their expertise and technology to places where they can lock up enormous acreage positions. I think it could get really exciting when you apply that technology, especially in the Thrace Basin where it looks like TransAtlantic has some tight gas opportunity. As well as in the Paleozoic trend where there are a couple of areas, especially near Arpatepe, Turkey, that look like they could be perfect for fracking or horizontal drilling. It's really that combination of strong management, applying the right technologies and then having the real estate in the right areas. We're still at the very early innings of what TransAtlantic is doing there.

[boysy]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/look-beyond-the-temporary-turmoil/story-e6frg9ex-1225869671928

Look beyond the temporary turmoil Robin Bromby From: The Australian May 21, 2010 2:41PM

EVERYONE who has called today has opened the conversation with the state of the market.

Yes, it is awful, and this pain will last for some time yet.

But Pure Speculation, after a momentary weakness of the knees this morning, has managed to stiffen the old spine and again see beyond the temporary turmoil.

Just in the past week, in print and online, this column has reported on (a) the McKinsey projections India's growth over the next 20 years and the new enormous demand it will create for raw materials and (b) how China's global search for energy will replicate in size its snaring of metals around the world.

And now we've found one commodity which is already in short supply in China and of which Australia has plenty. Our lips are sealed until you go out and spend $1.50 to buy Monday's The Australian

In his latest weekly client note, Warwick Grigor at BGF Equities takes another swing at the man he calls Kevin Chavez and further pins down the argument that the new super tax can't work and that the Prime Minister wont be able to explain it to the increasingly worried electorate.

But Grigor also points out there is an upside to the shrinkage of the Australian dollar's value, caused by the collapse of confidence in the way this country is run and the consequent repatriation of money from Australia.

But the falling Aussie dollar is, he says, going to underwrite huge cash flows for coal and iron ore producers, whose output is sold in US dollars but produced in Australian dollars.

"Investors have been bailing this week, but sensible analysis would suggest they may come back aggressively when they consider the cash flows," writes Grigor.

Keeping in a positive mood, Dave Wall at Hartleys has today put a "buy" on Otto Energy (OEL), a stock selling at 8.4c.

Wall said Otto had undergone significant transformation during the global financial crisis and had emerged in a strong position. OEL has $23 million in cash, no debt, production of 1730 barrels of oil and 4m cubic feet of gas a day from part-owned operations in the Philippines and Turkey, along with a prospective exploration portfolio.

A deal in the Philippines with BHP Billiton (BHP) fell apart at the height of the global financial crisis, but subsequently the major has re-entered and agreement, is paying for 3D seismic and may elect to farm-in later this year or in early 2011. This would enable Otto to be free-carried for two deepwater exploration wells.

"We interpret BHP's willingness to re-enter negotiations as bullish for a farm-out and consider it likely that a deal will be finalised," Wall writes.

[boysy]

As known by many here Nido petroleum commisioned GC&A to do an independent reserves assesment of galoc the figures speak for themselves you have to wonder if or when Otto will use these updated figures for reserves estimate.

http://www.nido.com.au/reserves.html

2p reserves estimated to be 18.8 mmbl as of the
31 dec 2009 and this figure doesnt include the aquired 3d over galpoc done recently. At last report leaving 14.7 mmbl after taking into account production up unitl the 31 dec 2009.The last update on reserve estimate at the 2p level was 1.46 mmbl net to otto or at the time indicate gross 2p for the entire galoc field at 7.7 mmbl.

So if GC&A figures are to be belived over Ottos figures we should have around as of 31 dec

1p 1.277 mmbl net to Otto remaining
2p 2.76 mmbl net to otto remaining
3p 4.375 mmbl net to otto remaining

IF we take the figures from GC&A and take off a 1.3 miillion barrels produced since dec 2009 whch would reduce net reserves to otto by 0.25 mmbl.

This sohould mean as of today we should have 1 mmbl 1P 2.5 mmbl 2P and 4 mmbl 3P

Current MC = ~$100
cash should be greater than $25 million
EV = 75 million
If this value was galoc alone and we valued our reserves on a 2P level that would indicate a value of $30 per barrel held in reserve. that gives no value to Upside potential from farm ins farm outs of SC 55 which if BHP signs and drills 2 wells is worth over US$150 million.
Nido seem pritty confident that reserves will increase further once newly incorporated 3d over galoc is interperated. Bring on Galoc Phase #2 the FID should be due in the next few months and with a price tag of US$20 mill otto should have no problems funding this sort of cash before 1st Q 2011 as long as Galoc and Turkey keep Pumping.

Reserve figures taken off
http://www.nido.com.au/reserves.html

also quick mention of galoc on
http://www.nido.com.au/production.html

When will Otto accept these figures one must ask the reserve estimate by Otto was done in house and the one commisioned by NDO was done independently.

[boysy]

Valuation 21st May 2010 by heartleys very indepth some 25 pages 6 month price target A$0.15

http://www.ottoenergy.com/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1478&EID=21834071&PageName=Hartleys Initiates Coverage

[boysy]

Trans-Asia, Frontier Gasfields sign equity-option deals GMANews.TV - Friday, June 4Send IM Story Print
Trans-Asia Oil and Energy Development Corp., whose shares are traded on the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE), has signed farm-in option deals with Frontier Gasfields Pty. Ltd. of Australia.

A unit of the Phinma Group, Trans-Asia said in a disclosure to the PSE that the agreements with Frontier Gasfields cover its service contracts (SC) 55 and 69 for petroleum exploration.

The deal gives Frontier Gasfields a 150-day option to buy from Trans-Asia a 5-percent equity in SC 55 once the first exploratory oil well in the Marantao prospect, near the Malampaya oil and gas field in Palawan, is completed.

Malampaya is the Philippines' largest producer of condensate gas.

SC 55 covers a 9,000-square-kilometer area in offshore southwest Palawan. The Marantao prospect is estimated to contain 1.812 trillion cubic feet of gas and 567 million barrels of oil.

Seismic data from SC 55 have been collected by various groups in the 20 years to 1990, but no well has so far been drilled in the area.

Trans-Asia holds a 15-percent stake in SC 55 with Australian oil and gas firm Otto Energy Ltd. holding 85 percent of the contract.

Otto acquired its 85 percent interest in SC 55 when it bought NorAsian Energy Ltd. in 2006.

The agreement over SC 69, on the other hand, gives Frontier Gasfields the option to buy a 15-percent participating interest, Trans-Asia said.

SC 69 is a 7,040-square-kilometer area in offshore Central Visayas bounded by the islands of Cebu, Bohol, and Leyte. Otto Energy, which holds 79 percent of the contract, is also with Trans-Asia in the SC 69 consortium.

Frontier Gasfields may exercise its option under SC 69 within 182 days from the date it pays for the option fee, Trans-Asia said in its disclosure.

Trans-Asia posted a net loss of P39.6 million in the first quarter of the year from a net income of P178.8 million a year earlier, as lower revenue and higher costs and expenses hounded its operations for the first three months of 2010.

Its consolidated revenues dropped to P251.2 million from P385.9 million in the same comparable period after it lost the revenue stream from the power plant of CIP II Power Corp. when Manila Electric Co. took over the concession agreement with the developer of Carmelray Industrial Park II in Calamba, Laguna on April 11, 2009.

Trans-Asia’s consolidated costs and expenses amounted to P285.3 million from P180.7 million, the company said. —VS, GMANews.TV

[boysy]

Interesting presentation by Transatlantic for May

http://www.transatlanticpetroleum.com/s/Presentation.asp

Has much more new information about Transatlantic buying out Zorlu and the assets the company will aquire. You have to wonder if Otto would be interested in getting in on some of the action the presentation also shows the equipment Transatlantic have in the region no update on drilling of somurcali-1 which is a bit dissapointing but on the flip side hopefully the recently shot 3d will yield some targets. it still appears they have plenty of 3d targets yet to drill in the NE of the basin so far tghey have been targeting modest gas volumes close to the plant if you look at page 10 of the presentation you can see the 3 large targets yet to be drilled all covered by 3d. Then theres the fracture simulation planned for the thrace basin could be plenty more to come out of turkey yet in my opinion.

[boysy]

Things heating up in the pines the majors certainly seem to be pouring money into the region lets just hope another success at sc 56 will hurry along BHP to farm into SC 55. Would be good to hear an update along the lines of potential farm ins SC 51 due by Dec 2010 and SC 50 by march 2011 clearly both could be delayed further untill some equity is farmed out in both.

http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideBusiness.htm?f=2010/june/11/business1.isx&d=2010/june/11

ExxonMobil Corp. may spend an estimated $500 million in its Sulu Sea oil exploration, Energy Secretary Jose Ibazeta told reporters Thursday.

Ibazeta said he expected Exxon’s local exploration unit, ExxonMobil Exploration and Production Philippines B.V., to invest the amount in drilling wells at deep water levels in south Sulu Sea under service contract 56, which covers the Sandakan Basin.

“My estimate [is that] they will easily be putting in $500 million for their work program or just to explore. It takes a lot of money to bring up oil. That is just my estimate,” he said.

SC 56 covers an area of 8,200 square kilometers and is about 900 kilometers southwest of Manila and 200 kilometers northwest of Bongao, the capital of Tawi-Tawi province. ExxonMobil is drilling a third wildcat well as part of its appraisal of the reserves of the Sandakan Basin.

ExxonMobil has drilled two wells at a cost of $100 million each. It started preparatory work for the drilling of the third well.

A government report showed that the semi-submersible West Aquarius drilling rig spudded the Palendag-1 well on June 4 but plugged and abandoned it “after encountering drilling difficulties.”

ExxonMobil has since moved the West Aquarius rig to a nearby location, called Palendag-1A.

West Aquarius is the same that ExxonMobil tapped in drilling the first two exploratory wells in Sulu Sea.

ExxonMobil owns 50 percent of SC 56 while partners Mitra Energy Ltd. and BHP Billiton International Exploration Pty Ltd. held 25 percent each.

ExxonMobil completed drilling of the first two wells, namely Dabakan-1 and

Banduria -1, and is processing data registered from the operations. The drilling operations in the Dabakan-1 started in October last year and were completed in December. The Banduria-1 well, meanwhile, was completed in late February.

Energy Undersecretary Ramon Oca earlier said ExxonMobil did not report a flow rate in the first two wells, adding that it would take the company a longer time to evaluate the drilling data.

He said ExxonMobil’s first two wells, which showed signs of hydrocarbon find, had drawn the interest of foreign oil companies in the South Sulu area.

“There are many queries, especially in SCs near ExxonMobil. There are negotiations ongoing,” he said.

[shasta]

Things heating up in the pines the majors certainly seem to be pouring money into the region lets just hope another success at sc 56 will hurry along BHP to farm into SC 55. Would be good to hear an update along the lines of potential farm ins SC 51 due by Dec 2010 and SC 50 by march 2011 clearly both could be delayed further untill some equity is farmed out in both.

http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideBusiness.htm?f=2010/june/11/business1.isx&d=2010/june/11

ExxonMobil Corp. may spend an estimated $500 million in its Sulu Sea oil exploration, Energy Secretary Jose Ibazeta told reporters Thursday.

Ibazeta said he expected Exxon’s local exploration unit, ExxonMobil Exploration and Production Philippines B.V., to invest the amount in drilling wells at deep water levels in south Sulu Sea under service contract 56, which covers the Sandakan Basin.

“My estimate [is that] they will easily be putting in $500 million for their work program or just to explore. It takes a lot of money to bring up oil. That is just my estimate,” he said.

SC 56 covers an area of 8,200 square kilometers and is about 900 kilometers southwest of Manila and 200 kilometers northwest of Bongao, the capital of Tawi-Tawi province. ExxonMobil is drilling a third wildcat well as part of its appraisal of the reserves of the Sandakan Basin.

ExxonMobil has drilled two wells at a cost of $100 million each. It started preparatory work for the drilling of the third well.

A government report showed that the semi-submersible West Aquarius drilling rig spudded the Palendag-1 well on June 4 but plugged and abandoned it “after encountering drilling difficulties.”

ExxonMobil has since moved the West Aquarius rig to a nearby location, called Palendag-1A.

West Aquarius is the same that ExxonMobil tapped in drilling the first two exploratory wells in Sulu Sea.

ExxonMobil owns 50 percent of SC 56 while partners Mitra Energy Ltd. and BHP Billiton International Exploration Pty Ltd. held 25 percent each.

ExxonMobil completed drilling of the first two wells, namely Dabakan-1 and

Banduria -1, and is processing data registered from the operations. The drilling operations in the Dabakan-1 started in October last year and were completed in December. The Banduria-1 well, meanwhile, was completed in late February.

Energy Undersecretary Ramon Oca earlier said ExxonMobil did not report a flow rate in the first two wells, adding that it would take the company a longer time to evaluate the drilling data.

He said ExxonMobil’s first two wells, which showed signs of hydrocarbon find, had drawn the interest of foreign oil companies in the South Sulu area.

“There are many queries, especially in SCs near ExxonMobil. There are negotiations ongoing,” he said.

Didn't take too long after our conversation that majors would be sniffing around did it!

Success at tindalo will have more than a few eyes on the flow rates, & this could generate alot more interest in the region, not just for NDO, but KIK & OEL as well.

I'm with you, i wish OEL would update us on there minimum work in program & set the drill dates - only exploration wells but still as a producer you want to retain a certain level of exploration (even if we are reliant on BHP at the mo).

No debt & consistent cashflows should be able to fund there ongoing commitments

[boysy]

Yes it is evident that all those holding SC's in the region look poised to benifit from the majors more than sniffing round now. Tindalo must be reaffirming what the little players thought in the region and otto have a significant position in the area especially for there size. Ev now must be looking very small a farm in from bhp worth 8 cents a share if it goes ahead then they have other SC's to keep them busy. you have to wonder if BHP will be interested in anyother of Ottos SC's i would like a concrete commitment in the next quarterly as to what is going to happen this year all things going to plan. Clearly sc 50 is on the back burner we will need other players to front up with the cash or a higher oil price. Sc 51 however has a deadline of dec 2010 one would think they would need to get a contract in place in the next few months to ensure it is drilled on time unless itis delayed ?

[shasta]

Yes it is evident that all those holding SC's in the region look poised to benifit from the majors more than sniffing round now. Tindalo must be reaffirming what the little players thought in the region and otto have a significant position in the area especially for there size. Ev now must be looking very small a farm in from bhp worth 8 cents a share if it goes ahead then they have other SC's to keep them busy. you have to wonder if BHP will be interested in anyother of Ottos SC's i would like a concrete commitment in the next quarterly as to what is going to happen this year all things going to plan. Clearly sc 50 is on the back burner we will need other players to front up with the cash or a higher oil price. Sc 51 however has a deadline of dec 2010 one would think they would need to get a contract in place in the next few months to ensure it is drilled on time unless itis delayed ?

Most likely is that they will re-negotiate to extend the timeframe, but OEL have to becareful that they dont let the permits lapse, i'd like to see them drill them, or at least do further 3D seismic testing over the known targets, to make getting a farm in partner much more attractive

[boysy]

Yes it will be interesting i would rather oel put some more effort into defining targets and drilling them. As you mention they need a farm in partner to drill and hopefully get a result the timeframe is running out hopefully with all the added action in the pines and success at T1 and if media reports are anything to go by things are certainly happening behind the scenes in the pines. Bring on a SC 55 farmout

[shasta]

Yes it will be interesting i would rather oel put some more effort into defining targets and drilling them. As you mention they need a farm in partner to drill and hopefully get a result the timeframe is running out hopefully with all the added action in the pines and success at T1 and if media reports are anything to go by things are certainly happening behind the scenes in the pines. Bring on a SC 55 farmout

OEL - Molton Holdings increases stake from 19.95% to 23.32%

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OEL&E=ASX&N=496620

The 30m options were exercised @ $0.05

Doesn't this triggered a takeover bid?

[ronthepom]

OEL - Molton Holdings increases stake from 19.95% to 23.32%

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OEL&E=ASX&N=496620

The 30m options were exercised @ $0.05

Doesn't this triggered a takeover bid?

Alec's other one---MOS was taken over !!!

[boysy]

creeping clause it wont trigger a T/o santo must of also excised there options for the full 60 odd million to be taken up. so both now up over the 20% threshold. Looking cheaper and cheaper by the day cash backing would be over $0.03 a share now me thinks. Though looks as though NDO will have a few cashflow issues wouldnt be supprised if they are dragging there feet firmly in the ground until and if tindalo gets sorted out.

[boysy]

The Philippine government made P490 million from the Galoc oil field in northwest Palawan in the 12 months to June 2010, an Energy official said Tuesday.

It is now up to the national and local governments on how the money from the Galoc fields production since it was declared commercially viable in June 2009 shall be divided, Energy Undersecretary Ramon Oca told reporters in an interview.

The Galoc field has produced over four million barrels of oil since October 2008 when the consortium, led by Galoc Production Co., started pumping oil from the well. The field now produces 8,600 barrels per day.

The consortium is studying the possibility of drilling two more wells to discover additional reserves, and increase Galocs output by 4,000 bpd to 12,600, and production reserves by five million barrels to 15 million.

While Galoc Production holds a 50 percent stake in service contract 14C, which covers the Galoc field, Australias Otto Energy Ltd. and the Vitol Group hold the rights to the field's production.

"The field continues to produce in line with expectations and Otto is working with the operator to continue to improve the facility performance and plan for appraisal and development of the remainder of the field," Otto Energy said.

The other stakeholders in SC 14C are Nido Petroleum Ltd. (22.28 percent), Oriental Petroleum & Minerals Corp., and Linapacan Oil Gas & Power Corp. (7.57 percent each), Philodrill Corp. (7.03 percent), Forum Energy Corp. (2.27 percent), Alcorn Gold (1.53 percent), and PetroEnergy (1.03 percent). VS, GMANews.TV

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/195339/government-makes-p490m-from-galoc-oil-production

[shasta]

OEL - Molton Holdings increases stake from 19.95% to 23.32%

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OEL&E=ASX&N=496620

The 30m options were exercised @ $0.05

Doesn't this triggered a takeover bid?

Slight correction, Molton now hold 21.32% not 23.32%

Santo have gone to 21.32% as well

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OEL&E=ASX&N=496795

[boysy]

Top 20 holders as of 2nd July owned 65.2%


http://www.ottoenergy.com/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1409&EID=48566255

[shasta]

Top 20 holders as of 2nd July owned 65.2%


http://www.ottoenergy.com/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1409&EID=48566255

With the June quarterly fast approaching, i thought i'd estimate the cashflows/gross revenue

The OEL shareprice has softened over the quarter, but the fundamentals still stack up.

OEL's market cap @ $0.074 = ~$80m (cash @ 31/3/10 was approx $18m, excluding the $21m rec'd ex BHP)

Opening Cash = ~$A18m

Less: ~$10m (est exploration**, development, & admin costs, as per 31/3/10 qtrly)

Plus: Est Gross Revenue (Gas + Oil) ~$A12m*

Less: Est direct costs ~$A5.5m (Edrine & Galoc, using 50% costs for Edrine & $US30/bbl Opex + Capex for Galoc)

Est closing cash @ 30/6/10 = ~$A14.5m

Gas Revenue for June Qtr

10mmscf x $US7.50/mmscf x 35/100 = $US26,250 per day x 80 days production, less 10% processing fee & using 0.87 AUD/USD

Gross Quarterly Gas Revenue = ~$A2.17m

Oil Revenue for June Qtr

8,600bopd x $US70/bbl x 0.1878 = $US113,056 per day x 80 days production, less 5% disc to Brent price & using 0.87 AUD/USD

Gross Quarterly Oil Revenue = ~$A9.87m

Total Estimated Gross Revenue June Qtr = $2.17m + $9.87m = ~$A12m*

The figures i've used are delibrately conservative at the lower end of the expected range

** Unsure if the exploration costs includes the seismic data related costs that BHP are funding