FBU Chart.

[pierre]

That pesky no 6-- has been featuring again in the past hour! Sharks circling?

[ratkin]

Still in , System not given a sell signal yet, have this on long term settings , Have faith in this one otherwise would of gone out when trendline was broken

[winner69]

You in Chch ratkin. ......things are starting to move in the rebuild process I think ......FBU have headwinds but that is just the nature of competition .....they wil partake in a lot of activity over the next 10 years

[ratkin]

You in Chch ratkin. ......things are starting to move in the rebuild process I think ......FBU have headwinds but that is just the nature of competition .....they wil partake in a lot of activity over the next 10 years

Yep , most of the demolition is finished now , certainly plenty of activity now , but its still ramping up , there will be a few thousand more workers about when it really gets going , they only scratched the surface so far.
FBU look a no brainer tbh the dividends not too bad.
My core holding will not be sold anytime soon , but some of the play money may go in and out

[winner69]

Still in , System not given a sell signal yet, have this on long term settings , Have faith in this one otherwise would of gone out when trendline was broken


Al looking good again with FBU

[Hoop]

Double-top ... run like hell :)

It seems that way atm...Everything was going swimmingly :t_up: until 11am Aust /1pm NZ/ 11am Japan...then the index tide went out big time:confused: (Japan the cause??)...
In real life when the tide suddenly goes out, you head for high ground...quickly!!!

[gonzo56]

Double-top ... run like hell :)

Not just yet, It would have to hit around 7.60 and then start to reverse, that would be a double top.


..the pattern is made up of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough in-between.

4209

[Hoop]

Not just yet, It would have to hit around 7.60 and then start to reverse, that would be a double top........

Note:.....FBU chart has not got a double top formation....yet!!!....It does not need to reach 7.60 again with the second peak just close enough (<5% will do) and FBU has done that with an intra-day high yesterday of $7.56

Hi Gonzo... Double tops come in slightly different shapes (Adams and Eves) but they all have to abide by specific identification guidelines to confirm the formation. Probably nitpicking here but your Gillette chart is a poor DT example as the trough between the two peaks is less distinct (although it still qualifies >10%) but the trough is longer than the ideal <2months...

Watching and commenting on a possible chart formation being created is a lot different than a formation already completed...During a possible forming whether it completes or it breaks down, it still gives the chartist a wealth of statistical information...
FBU atm is in the process of forming a double top...this forming process has a failure rate of 65%....ATM, If you are one of those people that say FBU will not fall below 6.92 then you have a 65% chance of being right.
If FBU does fall below 6.92 then the double top formation is completed and confirmed. DT formations are one of the most reliable of chart formations with an average decline of 18% ($6.23) and a 73% chance of reaching its target price (FBU TA price is 6.92 - ([7.60 - 6.92] x 0.73%) = $6.42*

* That 73% chance may be reduced as there is a support line at 6.65

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBU13112012.gif

[gonzo56]

Excellent post, thanks Hoop. Where did you get those figures though? i.e. a trough less than 2 months and failure rate of 65%...

[Hoop]

Excellent post, thanks Hoop. Where did you get those figures though? i.e. a trough less than 2 months and failure rate of 65%...

One of the chartist's must have books is Thomas N Bulkowsky's "Encyclopedia of Chart patterns 2nd Edition 2003. He has researched thousands of patterns and did statistical analysis on his findings...I think its still a textbook at many Universities overseas doing diplomas for TA

If you haven't got it ..Try Bulkowsky's The pattern site (http://thepatternsite.com/)..This site has a basic run down on events and formation patterns + up to date other stuff........ click on 101 chart patterns.

EDIT....One of my personal guidelines nowadays (last 10 years) is to invest in stocks that have >70% chance of happening.... thats why I have reverted to being a TA chartist from that of a long term buy and hold FA investor......This way even with a few failures I eventually come out up overall because the odds are in my favour...:)

[ratkin]

http://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCEQFjAA&url=ftp%3A%2F%2F195.214.211.1%2Fbooks%2FDVD-023%2FBulkowski_Th.N._Encyclopedia_of_Chart_Patter ns_%282000%29%28en%29%28672s%29.pdf&ei=RN-iUNewJaukigem2oGAAg&usg=AFQjCNFbnbBjBkF33Kt1F33meGgKafdM7Q (http://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCEQFjAA&url=ftp%3A%2F%2F195.214.211.1%2Fbooks%2FDVD-023%2FBulkowski_Th.N._Encyclopedia_of_Chart_Patter ns_%282000%29%28en%29%28672s%29.pdf&ei=RN-iUNewJaukigem2oGAAg&usg=AFQjCNFbnbBjBkF33Kt1F33meGgKafdM7Q)


Book can be downloaded from above link

[gonzo56]

One of the chartist's must have books is Thomas N Bulkowsky's "Encyclopedia of Chart patterns 2nd Edition 2003. He has researched thousands of patterns and did statistical analysis on his findings...I think its still a textbook at many Universities overseas doing diplomas for TA

If you haven't got it ..Try Bulkowsky's The pattern site (http://thepatternsite.com/)..This site has a basic run down on events and formation patterns + up to date other stuff........ click on 101 chart patterns.

EDIT....One of my personal guidelines nowadays (last 10 years) is to invest in stocks that have >70% chance of happening.... thats why I have reverted to being a TA chartist from that of a long term buy and hold FA investor......This way even with a few failures I eventually come out up overall because the odds are in my favour...:)

That is such a great site, thank you for the link. I mostly use TA too, apart from looking at the changes in the EPS of a company. And cheers for the pdf of the book ratkin ;)

[ratkin]

Train leaving the station

[winner69]

Train leaving the station

Only problem ratkin is that the good news has taken the share price to a double top might form - so says belg and belg is normally right

But like you ratkin this is just the beginning .... there will NOT be a double top .... and FBU will soon have 8 in front of it .... and when that happens we won't see a 7 in front of it for some time

Up up and away

[winner69]

What pisses me off is companys who sneakily change what they call operating earnings to make growth look better

I applaud putting things like restructure costs into normal operating earnings like they intend doing. (Some reserch shows that 15-20% of earnings are written off in future years so abnormals are really normal but it is hard to smooth out abnormals eh) .... but the cynic in me says why do the change now .... to make the growth numbers look better of course

[winner69]

They say operating earnings up 12%-20% on last year (using the new way of reporting things)

Using the old way of doing things earnings are up 4% to 13%

Sneaky eh .... and the market fell it

Never mind growth is growth and even the upper end of their guidance is only the first guess so watch the number grow

[ratkin]

Only problem ratkin is that the good news has taken the share price to a double top might form - so says belg and belg is normally right

.... and FBU will soon have 8 in front of it ....

Dont be so negative .... We want 9 , we want 9

[winner69]

Dont be so negative .... We want 9 , we want 9

No rat .....come 2014 it'll be 14 bucks

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Winner when in 2014?

[ratkin]

Maybe im biased living in chch , but there enough work to keep them busy for decades

[gonzo56]

I don't know at what point it could have been avoided (when going up), but check this out: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/02/010702.asp#axzz2CoCajSyk - Look under "Exhaustion Moves and Volume", because there was a massive jump in volume yesterday. (The point suggested is that this signifies a reversal.)

[Halebop]

I have no clue about TA so can someone let me know at what point a double top has been avoided? Does the SP have to break through a certain level or what? Cheers in advance.

TA is a form of statistical analysis which means it's about probabilities rather than certainty. The chart doesn't look double toppish to me and appears to have busted through. I think $7.75-$8.00 looks like a resistence range so moving up through there may be the real challenge...

[macduffy]

FBU chief promising a shake-up. Market likes that!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10848877

[Silverlight]

Yesterday's trading volume in FBU was only the third time in 5 years that 10m shares traded. While some of the trade were double prints, the volume is still 10 times greater than the average over the past 10 years, and very bullish given the % rise yesterday. The smart money is taking a medium term view, if we see a rally over 9 again though, it will be time to take some profits again.

[winner69]

Maybe some FPA money but even so a lot of punters are keen eh

[winner69]

Winner when in 2014?

Looks like just in time for Xmas 2014 mate

Great chart eh ... Halebop mentions probabilities .... I prefer a bit of visualisation ..... easier to see the outcome

[Hoop]

Note:.....FBU chart has not got a double top formation....yet!!!....It does not need to reach 7.60 again with the second peak just close enough (<5% will do) and FBU has done that with an intra-day high yesterday of $7.56

Hi Gonzo... Double tops come in slightly different shapes (Adams and Eves) but they all have to abide by specific identification guidelines to confirm the formation. ......

Watching and commenting on a possible chart formation being created is a lot different than a formation already completed...During a possible forming whether it completes or it breaks down, it still gives the chartist a wealth of statistical information...
FBU atm is in the process of forming a double top...this forming process has a failure rate of 65%....ATM, If you are one of those people that say FBU will not fall below 6.92 then you have a 65% chance of being right.........

Being totally pedantic :p and from a pure technical point of view a double top formation being constructed has not yet been ruled out.....OK..it's highly unlikely now with tons of buy signals firing off and smart money entering ...+... FBU showing that it is a feisty cyclic bull calf these last few days.

Most double tops fall within 3% variation so two peaks 7.60 and 7.83 meets the criteria....also the criteria (bulkowsky) says < 5% so at a stretch up to <$7.98 could still qualify...but then it still has to drop below the criteria 6.92 valley ...which is becoming increasingly unlikely.

From a trading point of view 7.60 has now become a support level.

PS::: Winner you should use blue up to $14 ...red ink gives me the heebie jeebies

[gonzo56]

What about this winner69?

4220

Legitimate resistance...

[Silverlight]

Whole bunch of analysts re-affirming valuations around the 6.50 mark and writing off the recent preso as "unattainable" and "optimisist" ... Belgie's gone this morning ... still can't get a decent entry for the long-term account.

Entry at 5.90 suited me.

On the anlyst front Forbar reaffirmed 8.66, and Craigs have moved from 7.06 target to 8.65.

Macquarie still have a 5.90 target... go figure.

[winner69]

What about this winner69?

4220

Legitimate resistance...

I prefer the impending Big W formation coming up

[ratkin]

Price back over the trendline


4221

[pierre]

An SP starting with an 8 is looking dangerously close right now.

[pierre]

An SP starting with an 8 is looking dangerously close right now.

At 804 as I write - up 20cents on the day so far.

[gonzo56]

At 804 as I write - up 20cents on the day so far.

It still hasn't broken through the long-term (6yr) trendline. It's just touching it now [See picture]

4223

[winner69]

It still hasn't broken through the long-term (6yr) trendline. It's just touching it now [See picture]

4223

Maybe but all the moving average lines look healthy. ....even healthier than they looked in July when said buy at around 600 .....and FBU became a screaming buy at that time in the context of Chch timelines etc

So 33% in four months not too bad ...and a divie as well .....and still expect 100% plus from FBU in this trade

Up up and away

[winner69]

From Business Spectator FBU out of favour with JPMorgan ... They prefer ABC in this space

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Adelaide-Brighton-Fletcher-Building-JP-Morgan-pd20121121-28VSF?OpenDocument&emcontent_spectators

JP Morgan has switched its preferred pick in the building materials space, upgrading Adelaide Brighton to overweight while downgrading the New Zealand-based Fletcher Building to neutral.

During the past quarter, Fletcher has enjoyed a very strong run, ranking near the top of the sector with a 15 per cent return, while Adelaide Brighton has been the laggard of the sector. The chart below shows the performance of both stocks over the past year, in particular the very strong outperformance from Fletcher Building over the last three months.

With a lot riding on a strong second half and its valuation now stretched, JP Morgan is no longer recommending Fletcher Building as its preferred exposure to the sector. Instead, it elevated Adelaide Brighton to its preferred sector pick and said the stock offers the highest expected total return in this sector

"Market data suggests Adelaide Brighton is on a solid path in the second half of 2012. While its first half result fell below our expectations, recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on cement and clinker has provided room for optimism on the outlook for the second half 2012.

"The September quarter was particularly strong for cement, which rose by 7 per cent against the pcp and is up 10.3 per cent in the year to date," JP Morgan said.

Given the company’s considerable exposure to cement and the momentum evident in the latest Australia Bureau of Statistics, JP Morgan views Adelaide Brighton as its preferred pick in the sector. It notes that its total return estimate of 4.2 per cent is well ahead of the -2.6 per cent expected for the sector.

[janner]

So winner. with your Up up and away ( post 1288 ) where are you now with your post 1289 ??..

Selling FBU.. and Buying Adelaide ??..

[winner69]

So winner. with your Up up and away ( post 1288 ) where are you now with your post 1289 ??..

Selling FBU.. and Buying Adelaide ??..

This is a long term trade .... target $14 by end of 2014 .... but as always watching the lines on that chart

[macduffy]

FBU up ~4% on the day - I havent noticed any specific news coming out today to cause this. Does anyone else have any more info?
Cheers

Probably related to yesterday's Sept quarter building work numbers - up 9.6%.

[winner69]

FBU up ~4% on the day - I havent noticed any specific news coming out today to cause this. Does anyone else have any more info?
Cheers

Just that every now and again people need a bit of good news like that Sept quarter building activity report just to remind themselves and give them comfort that the future is bright for FBU

That was Sept activity reported yesterday ... building consents still rsiing 20% odd since then and that is an indicator of the future

See I didn't say that the shareprice is following the red line on the chart I posted a few weeks ago

[winner69]

Looks like just in time for Xmas 2014 mate

Great chart eh ... Halebop mentions probabilities .... I prefer a bit of visualisation ..... easier to see the outcome

I talk about it turmeric

All going to plan metinks .... consents still rising in NZ .... numbers looking better in Aust according to todays paper .... and the US about to burst into life .... and Chch hasn't really started yet

9 bucks soon ... than 10 bucks .... up up and away

[winner69]

FBU share price needs a boost - not quite going up as fast as it should .... should be closer to 10 bucks now

So I'll do a Morningstar and put a BUY BUY on FBU with a target of 14 bucks .... buy some or if you already have some buy more.

The Herald say 'The building sector has taken off and Canterbury earthquake repairs are one of its biggest drivers' .... but heck consent numbers have been increasing for well over a year now. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10858221

Those who model such stuff and make projections have new residential consents increasing from current 16,000 to 22,000 to 23,000 in the next couple of years. Thats a lot of extra timber and gib and stuff eh. And then there is the extra non-residential work in Chch on top of normal demand



The NBR said 'The nation's biggest construction and building materials firm has gained amid signs of life returning in the Australian home building market.' and 'as expectations of a pickup in building activity lifted companies such as Fletcher Building, Steel & Tube Holdings and Cavalier.'
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/market-close-nz-shares-rise-new-5-year-high-fletcher-steel-and-tube-gain-bd-134435

And things looking a bit brighter in Australia - even so it prompted one guy to say 'It's not all gloom and doom' but could be better as this guy says 'Master Builders Australia chief economist Peter Jones welcomed the rise in approvals figures but agreed further rate cuts were needed.'
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Building-approvals-lift-in-November-pd20130110-3T2G2?OpenDocument&src=hp28

[winner69]

The size of the building 'boom' in nz over the next few years isn't quite as big as that what occurred from 2003 to 2008 but getting pretty close to it

Look what happened to the FBU share price v that time ....went from unloved to a market darling ,,,,like the chart shows

10 bucks is only the first stop turmeric

Matter of interest ....why your name associated with curry?

[winner69]

Another great thing about FBU is that it is in an industry with 'unplanned' obsolescence

Great that a lot of the stuff they sold 10-15 years ago needs to bought again ....thanks to leaky homes

Last count still 30-40 billion dollars of problems to be fixed .....a lot of that needs stuff FBU make and sell

[winner69]

And now all those homes in Chch that have asbestos in the ceilings .....hide it eh or get the govt to mandate it get fixed .....jeez gib galore ....and paint ....better buy more DLX as well

If Chch have asbestos so does all nz

[winner69]

might get to 9 bucks tomorrow turmeric

[Pete]

might get to 9 bucks tomorrow turmeric

Only a few days off, just hit $9.10...

[winner69]

Only a few days off, just hit $9.10...

We now start talking about 10 bucks eh

Mind you most things that have a good story are going up .... but at least fbu going up faster than most

[POSSUM THE CAT]

At what price would you say was the time to get out.

[ratkin]

At what price would you say was the time to get out.

When your boots are full

[macduffy]

I think you did, turmeric.


I will consider exiting if and when things change.

No point in pre-determining an exit point while upward trend remains intact and sentiment and fundamentals continue to be favourable. Don't expect (hope?) to hit the absolute high but be prepared to sell when circumstances change.

I just hope I follow my own preaching here!

:cool:

[winner69]

At what price would you say was the time to get out.

wouldn't htink below 14 bucks ..... and hopefully even more

[winner69]

FBU has a lot going for it the moment ......the market recognises this but still have not priced in a lot of the future activity

Chch .....only quarter of the eqr work has been completed ( about 70,000 of the claims still to be done) .......the home rebuilds haven't really started yet with a few hundred out of the 15000 to be donee......commercial buildings still being knocked down and many to be rebuilt .....infrastructure work to go on for many years

Rest of nz just seeing a turn up in the building cycle ......new residential units to from 16000 now to 24000 per year

Australia a bit subdued but not stuffed

This from Business Spectator says market reckons USA the place to be for the future ...... Excluding Adelaide Brighton, the above chart shows just how strong the sector has performed over the last six months. This basically coincides with the point where we really started to see upside momentum in the US housing market, which continues to gather momentum.......
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Boral-job-cuts-stock-markets-CSR-James-Hardie-pd20130116-3Z75W?OpenDocument&src=srch

Good chart in that article puts FBU in good light for asx investors

So all looks good ....the new boss will see that really healthy bottom lines are here for the next few years

[winner69]

Just a bit of a nusisance methinks ... plenty to go around

The radicals will be saying jeez foreign plaster board installed by illegal immigrants .... just what the country needs

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10861036

[CJ]

Not ideal but as you say, plenty to go around.

Worse from an NZ inc perspective. Less NZ manufacturing jobs, less NZ profit so less PAYE, income tax and down stream GST. All for a 6% saving.

[winner69]

Not ideal but as you say, plenty to go around.

Worse from an NZ inc perspective. Less NZ manufacturing jobs, less NZ profit so less PAYE, income tax and down stream GST. All for a 6% saving.

Gvt intervention in the rebuild seems over the top for what they are going to get out of it .... on the face of it at least

With the paint and plasterboard tenders given out some estimates are that they (the govt) will not get much more tha about $10m ,,,, from the manufacturers who no doubt will try to pass it on to the contractors .... and I understand the compliance and recording processes are a bureaucartic nightmare.'

Methinks the real govt agenda is using the quake recovery as a front to break down some of these 'monopolistic' businesses in NZ .... hence his remarks about eventually the consumer will be better off because of competition etc etc ..... all those sort of intervention let alone what they are doing with planning issues. Good or bad I don't know but generally government intervention ends up in tears somewhere

[KJ]

Wow-current PE 34-okay there is a big improvement coming but it would need to increase NPAT from $193m to about $600m in the next year or 2.You would have to be bold to be buying right now.

[winner69]

Wow-current PE 34-okay there is a big improvement coming but it would need to increase NPAT from $193m to about $600m in the next year or 2.You would have to be bold to be buying right now.

That $193m was really $317m so the way guru analysts work eps last year was really about 49 cents. This year F13 earnings increase might be a bit slack but analysts have earnings in F14 ranging from 52cps to 74cps ($470M) - with a consensus of 63 cps so a forward looking PE is only 12-15. A bit higher than long time average for FBU.

With Chch only in the early stages of being being fixed and rebuilt (no real building done yet) and the upturn in a construction market in NZ that will see 50% increase in activity .... Aust looking a bit dodgy but not munyed ... fair degree of optimisim in the US .... and honky dory that $600m you mentioned is on the horizon ... and then the $14 my chart shpws will look cheap as well

Sometimes one needs to see the big picture ... and this picture is one of unprecendented activity for FBU .... with growth to a large degree supported by the existing resource base

[winner69]

how your interview go emearg

[KJ]

That $193m was really $317m so the way guru analysts work eps last year was really about 49 cents. This year F13 earnings increase might be a bit slack but analysts have earnings in F14 ranging from 52cps to 74cps ($470M) - with a consensus of 63 cps so a forward looking PE is only 12-15. A bit higher than long time average for FBU.

With Chch only in the early stages of being being fixed and rebuilt (no real building done yet) and the upturn in a construction market in NZ that will see 50% increase in activity .... Aust looking a bit dodgy but not munyed ... fair degree of optimisim in the US .... and honky dory that $600m you mentioned is on the horizon ... and then the $14 my chart shpws will look cheap as well

Sometimes one needs to see the big picture ... and this picture is one of unprecendented activity for FBU .... with growth to a large degree supported by the existing resource base

Thanks for your comments W69. I understand the adding back for restructuring & asset impairments to arrive at a NPAT of $317m.I know that this treatment is all according to accounting standards but you do have to question it a bit.It's all very well calling these things abnormal but is it really?.With a business like FBU (large and cyclical) is restructuring really normal to them or abnormal?

Over the last 4 years here are their abnormals/restructuring/asset impairment costs:
2009 399m
2010 Nil
2011 108m
2012 132m
To me these transactions look more normal than abnormal & it does take the rosey glow off this this stock.I am not saying that it is not a very good business & yes W69,I do try to look at the bigger picture.I wonder what the abnormals will be this year?

[winner69]

They say operating earnings up 12%-20% on last year (using the new way of reporting things)

Using the old way of doing things earnings are up 4% to 13%

Sneaky eh .... and the market fell it

Never mind growth is growth and even the upper end of their guidance is only the first guess so watch the number grow


KW - restructuring etc obviously less than last year .... changed the way they report such things

In future restructuring will be normal .... good eh

[winner69]

Looking way in advance of any sane fundimentals ...

what fundamentals you using belg

[Silverlight]

Sold 80% of my position today, I am not good at picking the actual tops but we have had an excellent run from 5.90, this is the best perfoming stock over the past 6 months.

I will consider increasing my position sub $8, if we get a medium term correction.

[winner69]

OMG $36 million turnover today ....and an up day as well

Must have been those really strong consent numbers .....20% plus increase ... Just the start of a big cyclical upturn in building activity in nz

That 14 bucks looking good

[Awamoa]

Me too Belgarion.
Buying at $6.50 and selling at $9.21 on Monday is just fine for me.
Like you I will wait to buy back in.

[Baddarcy]

Me too Belgarion.
Buying at $6.50 and selling at $9.21 on Monday is just fine for me.
Like you I will wait to buy back in.

Yup im in that boat too, in at 6.55 and out last week at 9.22. Was getting a bit jittery about the up coming result, expect it to be ok, but not good enough to sustain the price.

Am lurking awaiting a return to the $8 range, then i'll be back.

[winner69]

Speculation that the rebuild is going as planned. I think people are getting ahead of themselves and forgetting the US and OZ markets which FBU is exposed to. The uptrend is running out of steam and the fundamentals are all out of whack. The next report might come as a surprise to some...

Chch rebuild hasn't really started yet ... still fixing things like Percy's house up.

NZ building turning up from the bottom of the cycle ... like yesterdays consent numbers ..... all future sales for FBU

And even though the US economy retracted a bit last quarter building seems on the rise .... from yahoo finance ... Despite the looming cliff - which could have meant a sharp tax increase for all Americans - consumer spending climbed from the third quarter, as did business investment in equipment and software, and investment in housing.

up up and away

[winner69]

The source for the EQR work is here http://eqr.co.nz/

Remember this only for the insurance claims to fix things up .... nothing to rebuild the 15,000 odd homes or rebuild the CBD which hasn't really got under way.

So $1 billion is the figure so far .... 31,000 jobs finished out of 100,000 plus .... FBU only get a a management fee on that (plus the margin on any of their products used ... for this work mainly gib and plaster)

See percy - you are special .... 1 of 31,000 to get the fix up .... 70,000 still waiting

The full profit impact of Chch is not going to come through to FBU until 2014 and 2015 abd then many years to come .... so no doubt some people will be disappointed with the interim

Thats my fundamental analysis for today

[winner69]

That $193m was really $317m so the way guru analysts work eps last year was really about 49 cents. This year F13 earnings increase might be a bit slack but analysts have earnings in F14 ranging from 52cps to 74cps ($470M) - with a consensus of 63 cps so a forward looking PE is only 12-15. A bit higher than long time average for FBU.

With Chch only in the early stages of being being fixed and rebuilt (no real building done yet) and the upturn in a construction market in NZ that will see 50% increase in activity .... Aust looking a bit dodgy but not munyed ... fair degree of optimisim in the US .... and honky dory that $600m you mentioned is on the horizon ... and then the $14 my chart shpws will look cheap as well

Sometimes one needs to see the big picture ... and this picture is one of unprecendented activity for FBU .... with growth to a large degree supported by the existing resource base

PE is not really the 30 odd shown on some websites

[percy]

The source for the EQR work is here http://eqr.co.nz/

Remember this only for the insurance claims to fix things up .... nothing to rebuild the 15,000 odd homes or rebuild the CBD which hasn't really got under way.

So $1 billion is the figure so far .... 31,000 jobs finished out of 100,000 plus .... FBU only get a a management fee on that (plus the margin on any of their products used ... for this work mainly gib and plaster)

See percy - you are special .... 1 of 31,000 to get the fix up .... 70,000 still waiting

The full profit impact of Chch is not going to come through to FBU until 2014 and 2015 abd then many years to come .... so no doubt some people will be disappointed with the interim

Thats my fundamental analysis for today

They are fixing all the houses on "good" land first.So that is why our house was repaired before more needy.
My wife's cousin, who works in sheetmetal, told me that last year was queit and was the time to build a new house,or what ever.Every one was waiting for rebuild to start.Everyone was chasing work and operated on thin margins.Now the work is coming in thick and fast,everyone has plenty of work and if you want anything done you have to pay for it.
Although we were put out by only having a few days notice before work started on our house,the end result is an excellent job.
How profitable it will be for FBU ? FBU face stiff competition in every area,country and sector they operate in.
ps for winner69.I see great opportunities for a local bank to finance machinery,equipment and vehicles.Think HNZ.lol.

[KJ]

It is interesting (& well overdue) that FBU are starting to face more competition & margins will come under pressure.

eg.a collective which distributes mainly its own Readymix concrete is importing & selling clinker (a key cement component)at a discount between 10 & 20%.

A German conglomerate has begun importing insulation into NZ & were given a chunk of the $40m plasterboard supply for the Christchurch rebuild & said to save the Govt 6% in plasterboard costs.
This coy has been welcomed into NZ by Steven Joyce who is keen on competition for FBU & driving prices down.
Contracts with Knauf cover plasterboard,fasteners,adhesives, & jointing compounds.It is said to be selling its insulation for half the price of FBU.

It does appear that it has become Govt policy to facilitate increased competition.The current monopoly / duopoly is not good for NZ.

[KJ]

great KJ, for FBU holders though

How is it great?

[macduffy]

ps for winner69.I see great opportunities for a local bank to finance machinery,equipment and vehicles.Think HNZ.lol.

I would think that a "local bank" currently has this field pretty much to itself - ANZ via it's subsidiary, UDC Finance!

:cool:

[voltage]

Maybe a good time to buy as under$9. However looking in paper PE is 33. Is this correct

[Hoop]

We have been blessed with a lot of chatter both from the TA / FA camps about FBU over bought / overpriced......but in reality is it???

TA. and Voodoo... FBU is in a rather active young bull market cycle it has had very mild corrections up to now and this latest correction has another mild target of $8.88. Some TA indicators have triggered sell signals mostly the short term stuff ...so short term investors should have already sold out.

Lucky numbers and the Chinese...$8.88 is a spooky price number...As well as a TA target point, the price line also falls on the uptrend line, connects with the long term resistance line, and when it occurs the EMA50 will be there as well...They all meet together as a focal point.

To add into this mix....888 is very lucky Chinese number...so serious are the Chinese about their lucky numbers that they commissioned the starting date for the Beijing Olympics on the 8/8/2008 and had the date read as 8/8/8.

Still a 888 non believer...eh?...

On my Chart I have big numbers 1 to 5 these are bull market correction and breaking of resistance confirmation points...
notice the length of each one....in round numbers
1..the bottom 5.80 support
2..top and new resistance and end of correction confirmation point with break out....6.70
3..top and new resistance and end of correction confirmation point with break out....7.60
4..top and new resistance and end of correction confirmation point with break out....8.50
5..top and new resistance and end of correction confirmation point with break out....the price tried to stop at 9.40 but got pushed to 9.52

add these numbers you get 13, unlucky for some but not so for the Chinese 06+07+0=13.....07+06+0=13.... 08+05+0=13
Ok I hear you said.."you used rounded up numbers...ok fair point so we will unround the $0.90....guess what it happens to be $0.88 (88cents) :D

Convinced yet!!!

Lets wait and see..eh? ...........$8.88 here we come.

FA and Sane investing....Lets get the bad parts out of the way first
Macquarie price targets..hmmm not worth writing about
PE 33.2.......double the NZX average or there abouts ..Hmm did I hear some people say sane investing?

Hoops Waitangi rant..the good part ;)

I here a lot about PE ratios at the moment....Are they worth mentioning??....answer yes, no, maybe (no I'm not a fence sitter).

I believe that if you want anything to work properly you have it use it the right way......when hammering in a nail holding the hammer by the head and banging in the nail using the handle isn't the most effective way is it? Neither is reciting PE ratios using up to the minute variable P with 7 months out of date variable E.
ST posters and Mr Market spend a lot of time assessing how well a company is operating on a day by day basis..nearly everyday there is some sort of news of what is happening either about the operations of the company or its environment that the company operates within.....subconsciously to many this can be considered as E (earning) adjustments. The benchmark or baseline that Mr Market uses is historical PE performances....

For my very simple example I will use 30/6/2012 Full year Results
On my chart the 30/6/2012 .. earnings of $185M was not known on that date by Mr Market...Mr Market presumes the yet to be reported earnings is still on track for a poor result (30ish% decrease??) and prices it in at PE 22.44 (price closed 6.06) The factored in PE ratio is higher because of low rate of inflation coupled with belief that CHCH rebuild will dramatically increase the E (company growth) in the near future.

On the 22 August 2012 the end of June (E now is 3 months out of date) fyr results are announced to Mr Market...Mr Market sees that the results are a tad bit more negative than originally presumed and drops the price by 5% to close at 6.32 so Mr Market believes a PE ratio of 23.4 will suffice.

On 5th February 2013.... the share price at $8.97 continues to fall as investors free up some cash (and profits) by selling down (Typical Bull market correction behaviour)...PE still at a whopping 33.22...but is it??? no of course not The PE ratio is using 7month old E data.

Now for the point of this exercise (a rough guide at best) I have used the announcement date (22 August 2012) when Mr Market priced in fair value 6.32 at PE Ratio 23.4 as a base line.
The PE of 23.4 that Mr Market thinks is a "normal" figure taking into account all current situations as at 22 August.

As of the 5th February it seems Mr Market is assuming the E is now equivalent to about the $270M mark (assuming conditions haven't changed much since August 2012)) ..well up from the last reported $185M

PE = 8.97 / ( $270M / 685M shares) = 22.8 (a PE figure assumed as near normal as of August 2012)

Edit...Error Right hand bottom box should read 30/6/2012 ?? not 30/6/2013 ??

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBU04022013.png

[winner69]

Hoop - hey mate you haven't read all the posts have you ... that $187m is really $317m ....one needs to use the number Mr Market does eh!!!!!

So I have rewriiten some of your post

On my chart the 30/6/2012 .. earnings of $317M was not known on that date by Mr Market...Mr Market presumes the yet to be reported earnings is still on track for a poor result (30ish% decrease??) and prices it in at PE 13.1. (price closed 6.06) The factored in PE ratio is higher because of low rate of inflation coupled with belief that CHCH rebuild will dramatically increase the E (company growth) in the near future.

On the 22 August 2012 the end of June (E now is 3 months out of date) fyr results are announced to Mr Market...Mr Market sees that the results are a tad bit more negative than originally presumed and drops the price by 5% to close at 6.32 so Mr Market believes a PE ratio of 13.7 will suffice.

On 5th February 2013.... the share price at $8.97 continues to fall as investors free up some cash (and profits) by selling down (Typical Bull market correction behaviour)...PE still at a whopping 33.22...but is it??? no of course not The PE ratio is using 7month old E data.

Now for the point of this exercise (a rough guide at best) I have used the announcement date (22 August 2012) when Mr Market priced in fair value 6.32 at PE Ratio 23.4 as a base line.
The PE of 23.4 that Mr Market thinks is a "normal" figure taking into account all current situations as at 22 August.

As of the 5th February it seems Mr Market is assuming the E is now equivalent to about the $448M mark (assuming conditions haven't changed much since August 2012)) ..well up from the last reported $317M

PE = 8.97 / ( $448M / 685M shares) = 13.7 (a PE figure assumed as near normal as of August 2012)


The $448m is a decent increase over 2012 and probably wont be realised. The half year profit will only be a little better than last year but then things start to acccelerate. They have already told analysts that full year earninsg will be about 20% up on last year ..... a boomer of a second half eh ... which will continue into 2014 and beyond

So Mr Market currently has FBU at around 16 times F13 earnings and only 11-12 times F14 earnings .... pretty cheap eh

Not chastising you Hoop - that was a good post and charting the E along with the P is a good approach ... one I do quite often

[winner69]

jeez winner - shame on you for pushing a boring blue chip as FBU ... esp so passionately

What is slowly unfolding with FBU is unprecendented and will never happen again .... so make the most of it eh

FBU has broken through range trading barriers (punters jumped the gun too early after the quakes) .... it has defied a double top ..... and probably will smash the handle of that cup as well (wheres the saucer) .... the best chart is mine posted earlier .... thats forward looking ... 14 bucks here we come

[QOH]

Any thoughts on how Mainzeal's collapse will impact on FBU 's shareprice?

[Hoop]

Hoop - hey mate you haven't read all the posts have you ... that $187m is really $317m ....one needs to use the number Mr Market does eh!!!!!

So I have rewriiten some of your post......

It all adds to better quality postings..so good on ya Winner............... school teachers red ink format..luv it :cool:

Truthfully...Yeah I did read your posts...then forgot about them... ahem :blush: ...... :D:D

I merrily went on my own way and used the FBU announcements supplied to the NZX and confirmed the figures with Reuters ...........and..yeah abnormals weren't added back..I remember that happening to me on the MFT thread a couple of years ago...same thing... I forgot abnormals then too

However... it is the methodology approach that I tried to get across to readers which counts here....eh

[winner69]

Any thoughts on how Mainzeal's collapse will impact on FBU 's shareprice?

Favourably methinks

Punters might panic and think nz construction is doomed but Mainzeal were always on a slippery slope

A couple of big jobs to be picked ..... Fletchers obvious choice eh


Not a good look for the industry though

[winner69]

hoop - just for you

npat and shareprice over time .... just to show that they do follow each other

it also implies that the fbu PE has been pretty constant most of the time - the higher than usual pe at present (red line above the columns) just aticipating the boomer profits coming up for fbu - levelf profitability they have made before so not going anywhere they haven't been before

The NPAT colums are over June/July/Aug periods - any patterns before / after announcements obvious

[Hoop]

hoop - just for you

npat and shareprice over time .... just to show that they do follow each other

it also implies that the fbu PE has been pretty constant most of the time - the higher than usual pe at present (red line above the columns) just aticipating the boomer profits coming up for fbu - levelf profitability they have made before so not going anywhere they haven't been before

The NPAT colums are over June/July/Aug periods - any patterns before / after announcements obvious
Interesting and compelling chart....Explains it in a KISS manner without all the distracting media noise ....Thxs Winner.


Now for the million dollar question...Based on this charts recent history (since 2010***) Mr Markets anticipation has been a little wobbly...
Est 2013 Fyr .. NPAT incl abnormals ;) on the chart is about 360M... Does Mr Market anticipates more than that?....or the Est NPAT is about right and Mr Market has overvalued the share and is now in correcting phase?

Anyways as you say Winner...from looking at this chart it seems the days of sub $8 are gone and its up up and away time unless a Black Swan Event impacts the forecasted NPAT....

*** 2007 -2009 FBU was impacted by Overall Market Cycle Behaviour

[KJ]

Thanks W69 & Hoops for your posts which I find to be excellent & reasoned.

With regards to 2012 NPAT,given that restructuring costs are now to be treated as normal expenses FBU will restate figures for comparison purposes.
I think that $54m of abnormals were from restructuring so at the very least $317m should be restated to $263m
which gives eps of 38c & a PE of 23.7

Looking ahead FY2013 EBIT was expected to be in the $560-$610m so if we assume $600m this should equate to approx $400m NPAT -eps 58.4 and a PE of 15.4

I found your Shareprice & NPAT chart very good and agree that the 2 go hand in hand.However the thing that interests me is tracking EPS:
2005 77.6
2006 81.3
2007 102.0
2008 93.2
and declining over the next few yrs and rising in 2013 to about 58c.
It is interesting to note from your chart that when FBU was at $12 in 2007-08 its EPS were around 100c so in today's terms a NPAT of $685m.

[winner69]

KW

I have not attempted to recast past NPAT for some of the abnormals (restructuring and like are now the onlybabnormals to be normal) .... i believe writedoens etc will still be abnormal

I still think the change in policy is to make this years result better (taking big numbers of last yaer and inclusing a smaller expected number this year helps %ages eh). So much so real transparency .

The 2007 eps of 100cps was on 486 mill shares .... there are now 681 mill shares. Thats why I used the $ NPAT on the chart

The average PE for FBU since 2004 (from ASB) has been 9,10,11,12,7,10,16,15,13 in 2012. So PE higher now but then the market PE is higher as well in a low interest rate environment

FBU didn't worry too much about abnormals up to 2008. Since then the numbers have been (normal first / reported second) ..... 2009 353 / 46 loss .... 2010 301 / 272 ..... 2011 359 / 283 .... 2012 318 / 185. So abnormals have been pretty high

But markets are forward looking I am told and all I know is that FBU will be making heaps more over the next few years .... maybe that is abnormal?

[winner69]

Fairly heavy trading in the last few days ... Still confident W69?

Punters will be disappointed cause they don't listen .....FBU have already said earnings will be flat in first half ....and then it takes off ....big time

This is 2 to 3 year play ....and 14 bucks beckons by 2014

The cup and handle prob play out ....driven by emotion / sentiment

[CJ]

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cupandhandle.asp#axzz2KiZB7u5Y

Watch for declining volume as the shareprice sinks.So short term decline followed by an upturn or is the upturn more uncertain that the short term decline

[winner69]

Yes, short term decline followed by a resumption of the uptrend with a strong breakout. The deeper the cup runs, the stronger the breakout. The uptrend should definitely continue as the forecast in all likelihood will be good/very good, but it may take a while for people to realise this. The trend has formed as people have got ahead of themselves regarding earnings.


......... followed by a resumption of the uptrend with a strong breakout. ..... jeez thank goodness for that

All the way to 14 bucks sounds right

[CJ]

Good to see the tech guys agreeing with my fundi thoughts. Its had a good run so may drift but should pick up nicely as the work starts to flow in.
e, especially with Mainzeal now goneburgers. Hopefully with Mainzeals exit, it will see bigger margins being built into contracts. No point trying to win the race to the bottem when mainzeal makes clear what the prize for that is. Therefore, regardless of who buys, margins should increase going forward.

[winner69]

About 1/2 of FBU's revenue now comes from Oz ... And if you read this thread you'd think the only thing that matters is the ChCh re-build ... How are things going in Oz?

discl: hold for long term but - at the current price of 9.08 - nervous as a slightly effeminate straight guy at a gay bikers convention ...

Yeah we all know that belg but the profit from the %age that is NZ is going to double ..... we know Aust having a bit of quiet time ..... but when that turns heck FBU closer to 20 bucks then 14 bucks

[Hoop]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10865972

Hmm ... Smacks of talking the share price up to me ... there's already a huge amount of expectation built into the price ... why more? because the result isn't going to justify the current price without more talk of how wonderful the future is!?!

Stupid timing for Emily Behncke and John Hynd, Deutsche Bank Markets Research analysts, to advertise their FBU buy signal, I give them a 4 out 10 here for that.

.....however drumming up business using media as a free advertising vehicle ..have to give them 10 out 10 for that ...eh

[Silverlight]

Like you, belgarion, I was not a FBU believer, and thought (and still do) that the price has run up to far, too fast. But that is based on my assessment of the Christchurch rebuild. Christchurch is not El Dorado, but most NZer's seem to think that it is. But then, most of them thought that the Rugby World Cup was going to have us all rolling in riches as well.

But my medium term view on FBU has changed. Not based on Chch, my view on that has not changed, but solely on the outlook for the international building/construction markets that FBU operates in, particularly Aus and the US. Housing and construction look to be gaining momentum overseas and I expect that this will flow through to FBU. That combined with the increased work from Chch, well it all looks very promising for FBU in the coming years. And I do like the new CEO. Wasn't to keen on the previous one though, Ling.

For me the $64k question is, how much of the future is already built in to FBU price, and what is the upside potential from here going forward? I think a fair chunk of FBU's profit for next 18-24 month's is already priced in. But according to Hoop's charts, the potential still looks good. And if things continue to improve in construction there's more to the upside to come I think.

David, this is precisely the reason I have sold most of my position in FBU, while there might be a short term momentum play, FBU may have been flagged in NZ over the past 6 months as a beneficiary of the earthquake rebuilding activity, the main driver of its performance has been the rebound in the US construction sector.

This play has already happened, and your medium term view change maybe slightly behind the curve. The US stocks I track in this sector have already added 100% plus, if anything the US sector is ready to taper off, and or correct, this will be the catalyst to send FBU back to $8, before it goes above $10.


6 month returns below:
Pultegroup +300%
D.R. Horton +130%
Lennar +170%
Toll Brothers +150%
Home Depot +125%
Ryland +280%
Lowe's +100%
Meritage +180%


Its not unusual for $5 billion companies to double in 6 months, but Lowe's from $22b to $45b, and Home Depot from $45b to $100b, are phenomenal movements. I am very wary of this sector in the near term.

[Silverlight]

Totally off topic, but I am always amazed at the US market and how already massive companies like those you have listed over can double their market cap in 6 months. Which is also why I'm trying to decided whether to buy any Manhattan Associates, as a play on the horse meat scandal in Europe. It's already had a fantastic run since 2011, can it do more? Well in the US market...........???

US small caps are pretty hard market to crack, very volatile and can triple or half before you understand why. Stock looks pretty toppy, but I know nothing about the company. What do they do that is better than SAP and Oracle?

[minimoke]

Fbu trader's should ignore Christchurch. The reality will be that construction materials will be bought off shore.steel will be shipped in by the boat load. Insulation is already being imported. Glass will come in pre made by the container load. Pipes well come from China.the city council bought all their sewer out fall pipes off shore and fbu saw none of that. Subies are not looked after and fbu hub management has to go back several times to redo one job. Christchurch will end up denting fbu not supporting it.

[Hoop]

I got tripped up with my previous post by being mixed up with operating profit/net profit and Winner corrected me in red ink :)
I feel a lot better today knowing even the powers of B can trip up too Quote REVISED ANNOUNCEMENT SHOULD READ OPERATING EARNINGS (NOT NET EARNINGS AS STATED) PAGE 12 UNDER OUTLOOK ............

I'm in good company it seems:D:D

Edit...falling back towards an entry buy in price?

[winner69]

I got tripped up with my previous post by being mixed up with operating profit/net profit and Winner corrected me in red ink :)
I feel a lot better today knowing even the powers of B can trip up too Quote REVISED ANNOUNCEMENT SHOULD READ OPERATING EARNINGS (NOT NET EARNINGS AS STATED) PAGE 12 UNDER OUTLOOK ............

I'm in good company it seems:D:D

Edit...falling back towards an entry buy in price?


life be a lot easier if they did the old fashioned way eh ..... if you make a buck you say you made a buck ..... not a buck and half with the half some other stuff that is not operating stuff

ever since the world got clever with such stuff there has been a continual decline in standards ..... and one of the reasons while the financial world is really in tatters

[winner69]

so come on you prophets of doom and gloom .... will FBU fall to 8 bucks .... or just as far to make a handle on the cup

numbers as expected .... one thing for sure they will be making heaps more in 2 years time and then even 9 bucks will look cheap ..... and the 6 bucks from the middle of last year still a good entry

might lighten up a bit .... percy wants me to put in heartland

[winner69]

bugger moosie ...... so that means that the NZX50 wont be reaching record highs any time soon if FBU are going to drag it down

[KJ]

Moosie 900-I don't think that everyone got ahead of themselves-some may have.
Anyone following FBU would have known that the first half would be flat-the coy told us that a long time ago.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

moosie 900 Do you expect it to go below 850 some time today?

[KJ]

So if no one got ahead of themselves you would have happily paid the $9.32 closing price yesterday then?

I said "not everyone got ahead of themselves-some may have."
I really do not understand what you are saying

[KJ]

By the way you can see from my previous posts that I would not have paid $9.32 for shares yesterday-I do not hold FBU.

[macduffy]

Rather than debate who said what and when and who got it right or wrong, what do the FBU "regulars" have to say about the way forward?

FWIW,I hold a few in the long-term portfolio but won't be seriously looking to add any at these levels.

:mellow:

[KJ]

Rather than debate who said what and when and who got it right or wrong, what do the FBU "regulars" have to say about the way forward?

FWIW,I hold a few in the long-term portfolio but won't be seriously looking to add any at these levels.

:mellow:
I feel that I am perfectly entitled to correct someone who does not "get" what I am saying.Not a school teacher are you? The way forward? What has changed? HY in line with expectations.

[macduffy]

I feel that I am perfectly entitled to correct someone who does not "get" what I am saying.Not a school teacher are you? The way forward? What has changed? HY in line with expectations.

Sorry about "the way forward". Too easy to slip into the jargon of the day, I'm afraid.

:blush:

No, not a school teacher - or the Minister of Education! - but interested in opinions as to FBU's prospects. Clearly the market has a changed view.

[Hoop]

Sorry about "the way forward". Too easy to slip into the jargon of the day, I'm afraid.

:blush:

No, not a school teacher - or the Minister of Education! - but interested in opinions as to FBU's prospects. Clearly the market has a changed view.

Hmmm...I dont think so... The market was well informed about this result..this is market noise atm.... Mr Market is re-adjusting nicely these last few weeks..My call is a bull market correction in progress. I wouldn't be all surprised if we have seen most of the downside.

[ratkin]

Dont sweat the small stuff

Just bank the generous dividends and remember that the chch rebuilt has barely begun and the aussie retail market will come right eventually

[winner69]

FBU was 887 at the end of last week ..... still 887

Must ahve been a lot of noise between then and now

[CJ]

FBU was 887 at the end of last week ..... still 887

Must ahve been a lot of noise between then and nowOMG. You mean the price has plummet to levels not seen since last Friday ... SELL, SELL, SELL!!!!

[winner69]

OMG. You mean the price has plummet to levels not seen since last Friday ... SELL, SELL, SELL!!!!

love the way you shout that out cj ..... the masses will hear the clarion call and the pricw will plummet to new levels tomorrow ... far enough to trigger belgs stops

[winner69]

Anyone done a valuation using the latest results? ... I'm sub 8.00 ... ... Sorry W69 ... but there should be enthusiasts appearing before then ...

Just using what they say like the 560 to 610 operating earnings gives npat of 330m to 350m which is eps of 48 to 51

So a pe of 10 is a share price of 510 at top end ..... pe of 15 is 765

Takes you pick belg ..... Seeing you have already done the sums you know what your target island you were just being mischievous asking such a question and I took the bait

Love a share price of say 600 again ..... 14 bucks is more than double that

[winner69]

Anyone done a valuation using the latest results? ... I'm sub 8.00 ...


600 on a pe of 12

[winner69]

Anytime moose ..... it's the way belg plays games with us .... he does it in subtle way

[Hoop]

Good new home sales numbers out in the US up 15.6% in Jan, the highest since July 2008 - the biggest monthly increase in 20 years. Has seen US homebuilder stocks move significantly higher. Expecting further rebound in FBUs SP today!
May be back up to 887 ..eh

[winner69]

hows the chart of the cup and handle looking moosie

[winner69]

not so flash in fbu second biggest market

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Construction-work-falls-in-Dec-quarter-pd20130227-5B2BE?OpenDocument&src=hp1

[winner69]

another building consents release today ... up 20% on last year .... and fbu fires back into life

New dwellings only 17,000 last 12 months .... way up on the 12,000 a few years ago .... but well short of the 22-23,000 per year in a couple of years

Thats heaps more wood, gib, insulation, formica and stuff for fbu to come

Don't know why punters should be surprised with strong consents numbers .... that forecast solid as.... but at least reminds people that fbu is heading to 14 bucks

hows the handle on the cup going moosie

[Hoop]

You chartists. Always freaking out about "the end of the world"

My experience is that the meteor always misses the planet.

what?? STC...I'm a chartist and I said FBU had birthed a bull calf cycle last year and apart from Winner the rest of you crowd on ST were reciting the brokers recommendations that 6 bucks was overvalued...

BTW I'm more bullish than Winner... He's expecting AllOrds to crack 7000...I can't see any reason why it can't crack 20000 in a few years....

Until I sold PGW I was 97% in the market...I need cash for the IPO's....does that sound like a chartist freaking out

I'm not bullish for the medium term for the NZX (its due for a bull market correction...and the bull is old so it might even die).... and the US markets look like they're standing on water..

Trends end at some point STC can't be bullish everywhere unless you take too many "happy pills". ...

Coming from this Chartisic I'll put my neck out and say FBU still has bull mileage and will perform far better than the NZX50 index for the 2013 year....dare I say it on ST without getting shot down in flames,,,maybe a haven from the possible NZX50 bear.


Can't vouch for Moosie maybe he is a tea drinker ....and dying for a cuppa fix and no cups in the cupboard..huh? that would make anyone feel pessimistic.


My experience is that the meteor always misses the planet....you'll have a hard time convincing the Russians that..eh they're picking up bits of rock everywhere atm:)

[Hoop]

Sorry Hoop - I actually do really like your TA comments. I should have had a "smiley" in my post to show I was teasing.

Nah...no need ..all in good fun....

ST been rather entertaining and informative lately..... enjoying it actually...

[winner69]

don't worry so much turmeric ..... go have a cup of tea .... out of a cup that aint got a handle yet

[winner69]

Previous support level at 8.60 about to be tested ... breached and I'm booking profits ... Fundemental's don't support current s.p.

tested 860 yesterday and way back up again ... almost becoming a good trading stock with these ups and downs as the handle of the cup forms

[winner69]

OMG - the 860 been breached

All downhill from here from a technical perspective

And pretty close to the bottom of th bollies as well ....not good

Only redeeming factor is still well above 200 ma line

That 14 looks long way off now ....with the world falling into a big heap again 14 bucks just a dream

Maybe 6 bucks is a possibility

Hope you still not in turmeric ....this is a dog bluechip at the moment ....bluechip in name only

[CJ]

Yip - S&P has done well overnight so I expect the pressure on all NZX50 companys in the last few days will have been lifted.

It just goes to show that Europe collapsing is still a real threat and any tremours, even in a tiny country like Cyprus, can ripple through the whole world.

[winner69]

Continuing on with housing data this week there was some good news on the American real estate market:
Housing starts climbed 0.8 percent in February to a 917,000 annual rate, from a revised 910,000 the previous month.
Permits for future construction jumped 4.6 percent to a 946,000 rate, the best since June 2008.

I'd expect to see a slight rebound in FBU today. Would have been better if not for the Cyprus/Eurozone cloud hanging over us!

Did you see this turmeric .... Fat Phrophets likes James Hardie .... all based on the future of the US market
http://www.smh.com.au/business/hardie-high-on-us-housing-20130322-2gjiu.html

Hardies looks expensive on fundamentals but like FBU this is based on low trough earnings .... got to look at the future eh

[winner69]

Handle on the cup fell off today methinks

Even with the divie coming off been some selling and heck could even have 7 in front of it tomorrow ...nice eh belg

Maybe a close up of cup and handle chart could be helpful moose

[Hoop]

Hey mossie, what is the % likelihood of this pattern?

I don't think one can put an accurate percentage stastistical chance of a happening here Belg...

Hate to say this but Moosie's Cup and Handle may look like a cup and handle formation but it does not fit Bulkowski's guidelines (see below)....so its classed as an invalid Cup and Handle formation.. There may be other reliable statistical data around but as far as I know only Thomas Bulkowski has done the in depth statistical data work with Chart formations..

As Bulkowski has done the Statistical work on the % likelihood of a breakout by using his guidelines...it is advised for us chartists to use his formation guidelines when analysing for a % chance of an event happening.

Moosie I wouldn't worry too much about this ..As far as many others are concerned its near enough as the formation looks like a c&h....

It may seem like I'm splitting hairs, but I use a 70+% chance of success investment strategy ...If you use this type of Strategy your discipline would say you can not use C&H statistical data on this FBU formation...

Similar looking patterns I would probably assume would exhibit similar looking behavioural traits...Therefore what you say should still be considered as mostly valid e.g,look for the break in trend of the "handle" (Moosies C&H similar pattern may exhibit a handle trend break (anticipated bullish warning) about the 10 - 15% % handle price drop (O'Neil C&H criteria) which happens to be around the 8.30 price point...Remembering that this is an invalid C&H according to Bulkowski and O'Neil.... if the pattern is similar then under that assumption some chartists may punt with tight stops that the "Handle" may be "near" its maximum formation and 8.30 marks a cautionary invalid hint of a " pattern bottom".

If the "Handle" pattern trend does break upwards..Using the bull market correction reversal wave method (not relying on the C&H pattern) would get me back in.. then the next step upwards chartists would caution themselves, would be the testing of the 9.52 Major Resistance Line (the lips of the "Cup").....and remembering that FBU is in a bull market cycle that 9.52 should theoretically break at some point in time.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBUCupandHandle.png

[winner69]

Methinks this not a good example of a cup and handle - mainly cause the lead up to the formation was not that strong relative to the depth of the cup

The rise from 500 in mar 09 to a high of 953 in apr 11 is 450 ..gurus say depth of cup is up 66% of that - if the bottom of the cup was say 575 in jun12 that's a depth of 380 or nearly 84% of the 450 - so too deep relative to the prior increase IMHO

If anything FBU was starting to form a nice cup 2007 but it failed half way up the right hand side

Oh well ....studied cup and handle ....imagination goes a log way

[winner69]

I see the 950 more a double top

Just like that famous double top of while ago it is double top to be broken as the shareprice continues it rise to 14 bucks

Might see it as a c& h then ..in retrospect

Visualisation is a wonderful attribute ....ESP when done when a full moon ....things are easier to see than when completely dark

[Xerof]

if the bottom of the cup was say 575 in jun12 that's a depth of 380 or nearly 84% of the 450 - so too deep

it was a tulip cup, not a Latte bowl.....

[Snow Leopard]

To cut to the chase on all these recent posts.

1) FBU will do what it will do.
2) Whatever it does TA has a name for it.
3) If it goes up* buy it.
4) If it goes down* sell it.

*The definition of 'up' and 'down' in the context of the FBU share price are not covered by this article.

This should not be considered investment advice and remember to brush your teeth every day (which should not be considered as health advice).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Hoop]

To cut to the chase on all these recent posts.

1) FBU will do what it will do...It is always nice to know the odds on what it would do ...eh?
2) Whatever it does TA has a name for it...Yep..each behavioural pattern gives you an insight on why a buyer is buying or seller is selling and the in some cases the types of investors as well
3) If it goes up* buy it. Yep averaging up is the smart investor play
4) If it goes down* sell it. Not always....sometimes its an opportunity to buy e,g during a Bull market cycle correction..you need to do TA and charting S&R and looking for bullish patterns to be sure of your accumulation timing. Apart from the Bull market correction process or if you hate TA with a passion then without all your investor tools at your disposal yes sell when going down is the less risk option using the old saying to the inexperienced investor..never average down.

*The definition of 'up' and 'down' in the context of the FBU share price are not covered by this article. Commonsense is ...FBU being mentioned as in a cyclic bull market cycle is by definition is "UP" Moosie with C&H pattern invalid or not the similarities of the pattern was mentioned as odds on bullish...Bullish patterns is by definition as "UP".
Bull market Correction alerted by me as a odds on near future happening in my earlier posts is by definition a "DOWN"

This should not be considered investment advice and remember to brush your teeth every day (which should not be considered as health advice). Don't use Fluoride additive toothpaste as it may (odds on) lower your IQ.....Hey .. odds on your teeth may rot out and up your mortality rate but you could be a lot smarter investor.... risk v reward... eh?

Best Wishes and you too PT and your family... have a good Easter weekend :)
Paper Tiger Hoop
.................................................. .....

[winner69]

Building consents out from stats nz - residential up 25% on feb last year and annually over 20% up

Al future work this .. Maybe a few quarters away

New residential consents last 12 months total 17400 .....still another 8000 pa to get to the forecast 25000 ... Heck nearly 50% more new house annually ....lot of timber, gib and batts to be sold

[Snow Leopard]

up 3% yesterday - down 3% today?

PT, long term uptrend intact (just) ... that's about all you need to know :)


...The definition of 'up' and 'down' in the context of the FBU share price are not covered by this article...

4404

I could argue that the uptrend has been broken.

However...
If I had have bought into FBU between August and November (I did not) I would not necessarily have sold out now given the size of the recent pullback.

Best wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

I been a bit slow moosie ... finally caught on ... a cup n handle it is ....the full moon did it

Excuse the simplicity but the best one could do on the ipad

[winner69]

Hey moosie .... we got it all wrong ..... there's actually a ladle pattern forming

Chance of success after a formation of a false cup and handle is vry high .... more than hoops 70% criteria .... and the good book on charting says the end of the ladle handing is usually just over twice the depth of the bowl of the ladle ... balancing purposes he reckons. Isn't it cool that the ladle even has a little lip for resting on the edge of the pot .... see not a cup handle after all

I am convinced this how it is going to play out .... Mr P said charts can't tell the future .... but with a little imagination and visualisation I reckon charts can tell the future ... and better than tea leaves and carot cards

Bit crude the drawing but the app was free so not so bad

[Hoop]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/fbucartoon.png

[troyvdh]

....this is great....I love it

[winner69]

.......and it will go on and on for years ......and get revised up again ....and again

And it hasn't even started yet

No doubt global players salivating at the possibilities ....but heck nz a long way from home for some of them

[Hoop]

Buy FBU and recoup your losses lol ;)

Anyone know if there is any news out soon? Volumes have been decreasing steadily over the past few weeks with the handle on this baby tightening ever so much. MACD, RSI and stochaistic all pointing towards a breakout of the consolidation or at least a false breakout like we had back in March. Trend reversal looks to me to be in store soon...

Time for a cup of tea (a la David Lange Style) nearly over?
Watch for the handle break...(I'm serious)

[winner69]

negative to an aussie is slightly down .... not like nz when negative is collapse like new housing starts falling from 32,000 ap odd to 12,000 pa over a couple of yaers

Aussie construction been in the doldrums (ie not growing) for a while .... but FBU still making heaps over there

[QOH]

I bought a few, maybe a bit early, but I can't see it being a falling knife from here in.

[winner69]

600 on a pe of 12

Maybe I was right in my honest reply to belg back in February

[winner69]

Haven't we already been over the P/E thing? That does not factor in future earning from CHCH either...

but mr adamson and his cronies seem to be struggling to make any money out of all the opportunities in front of them

i have feeling things not as it should be with FBU ... they seem to be spending too much time in fancy restructuring and aligning sub units and cutting staff and all that sort of stuff ... instead of just getting on and doing it

Chch what a joke .... not even 1500 insurance jobs completed in April and EQR said they were headijng to do 30,000 a year ... ask some contractors why and the answer is obvious

Maybe like Novapay EQR might get the sack

[Billy Boy]

Maybe Cranes giving them more aggro than we are being told about ??
The departure of cranes CEO, abrupt with no nice words.??
BB

[Silverlight]

Sold 80% of my position today ($9.20), I am not good at picking the actual tops but we have had an excellent run from 5.90, this is the best perfoming stock over the past 6 months.

I will consider increasing my position sub $8, if we get a medium term correction.

I am looking for entry point below $8, possibly the last fall before the next move up.

[tosspot]

$8 has been breached like the berlin wall. Ill be very tempted if it hits 7.50. will not buy in today though to much risk

[winner69]

$8 has been breached like the berlin wall. Ill be very tempted if it hits 7.50. will not buy in today though to much risk

750 ... surely 600 as what belg made me say

[winner69]

Apparently the slides were pretty good at that presentation the other day but the body language wasn't that great ... and a few glances upwards to the left

[Snow Leopard]

I am not up to speed on FBU, have they announced a closing down sale?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS Bet the unsolicited offer people are a bit worried.

[Silverlight]

Weird, FBU.ASX has been down considerably less than it's NZX brother all day. Ozzies thinking the selling is overdone?

The prices are exactly the same adjusted for the currency, there is never a difference greater than a cent.

The actual reason is that FBU sold off 2% on the ASX after the NZX close last night.

[Doyle]

Can't help but think some of this will be due to instos freeing up cash for mighty river power float. Just don't think the Aussie figures justify a 6% drop in the SP in one day.

[Beagle]

7% off now...I don't hold the stock and arn't tempted by this fall but the size of it is surprising.

I too suspect fundraising for the not so "Mighty" River power float.

[winner69]

6% in one day with next to bugger all news is very highly suspicious ... something smells big time ... glad I'm out.

One good thing from adamson's preso to analysts was that he sort of told them to get knotted ....just go back to your models and don't pressure me for guidance etc ....you just add more to it and then expect results.

Just let us get on with what we want to do ...not pressured by unrealistic expectations from you.

Great stuff ....those guru analysts hold too much power and force companies to do unrealistic things. About time somebody stood up to them and gave them the fingers

Problem with FBU at the moment is that all the good things are taking a bit of time, longer than most thought.

Chch is going to take a lot longer than most expected ...,.fbu will still make heaps from it and from the 50% more houses being built every year in nz. Oz is a bit slack and the USA picking up.

So they be ok in the long run .....just now is a good time for traders with the current ups and down.

And yes not the best timing to piss off the money men as they free up funds to put in something worse than FBU.

[winner69]

Bit of both belg .... but pissing off the analysts and not playing their game probably was the main cause.

Those guru analysts like the company to do the work for them and adamson not telling them how fbu going to make next year really got to them .... probably would have disappointed them anyway with the same result they sell.

Whatever brokers are happy today with all those sales and when timing is right they be happy when the same instos start buying back ... whose the losers now belg ... the multitude investing in those funds who are paying all these fees

[macduffy]

FWIW, from Macquarie, today:


Fletcher Building FBU Neutral
It’s got harder in Australia
• We think the FY13 EBIT $560m-610m guidance range is still current but management is now more comfortable with the bottom end of the range
• The company referred to recent weakness in Australian residential activity and we suspect Victoria, a key exposure, in particular is difficult.
• Consensus FY14 EBIT of $720m was described as underpinned by "heroic" assumptions with the company instead hoping for "some earnings growth".

[Major von Tempsky]

Posted at 1.29 A.M.!? Moosie? R u still awake? Mein Gott, that's what I call dedication!

[winner69]

Posted at 1.29 A.M.!? Moosie? R u still awake? Mein Gott, that's what I call dedication!

Says 1.29 PM for me. ...you taking the mickey again major

[BIRMANBOY]

Moosie went back to Canada for the weekend...must be Canadian time:p
Says 1.29 PM for me. ...you taking the mickey again major

[Major von Tempsky]

"Today, 01:29 AM " at the top of Moosie's post.

Are you telling me we can't even run ShareTrading from New Zealand"?
That some northern hemisphere contractors are doing it from India?
Well I'll be...

[winner69]

Belg posted before at 9.46 AM. Suppose says evening for you

My iPad was made in the northern hemisphere but seems to know the difference

[Beagle]

I might have to concede defeat soon if the volume continues upwards while the price slips downwards! Hoping that this is the perfect entry point I was looking for though ;)

Well after rising steadily off a base of around $6 or so a year ago they've well and truely busted through the 100 day moving average to the downside...I think the Christchurch rebuild thing is an over-played theme that's working itself out, (if you can even use that phrase) in super, super slow motion.

Given the inherent cylical nature of the industry I don't see any compelling reason to invest at these level's or anywhere near them. Wait till its busted back up through the 100 day moving average... I reckon.
Seems senior exec's at FBU are as frustrated as CHCH residents...

[Snow Leopard]

Was there no indication in any technical indictor? Did I just get lucky again?

Well, given that you ignored the Tiger Says It's Over Indicator (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5170-FBU-Chart&p=399818&viewfull=1#post399818) on the 28th Mar you are damn lucky.

This is where we need Phaedrus, he could always tell you where you went wrong.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Was there no indication in any technical indictor? Did I just get lucky again?

You teasing us all again belg ... I'll take the bait .... no you weren't lucky, you were very astute and used technical indicators to set your stop losses
.
True guru stuff ... sorry stuff legends are made off

[winner69]

Technically I think that the man in control worked out that moosie had fat fingers so had to make an extra large handle for the cup ....

[Hoop]

I could argue that the uptrend has been broken.

However...
If I had have bought into FBU between August and November (I did not) I would not necessarily have sold out now given the size of the recent pullback.

Best wishes
Paper Tiger


Well, given that you ignored the Tiger Says It's Over Indicator (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5170-FBU-Chart&p=399818&viewfull=1#post399818) on the 28th Mar you are damn lucky.

This is where we need Phaedrus, he could always tell you where you went wrong.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Well luckily for me Phaedrus is not here otherwise he would be PMing me every 10 minutes telling me off big time.
Yes PT you are spot on...I guess you will tell me where I went wrong instead..eh? :mellow:

As for telling people off I will start with myself first...
Here's my little disaster story.... I got smart!!!:cool:.... and tried to pre-empt the yellow channel breakout after I read in the NZ Herald (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10880242)that the CHCH earthquake costs were $10 billion more than predicted..I quickly stuck in my buy order.... I bought in on the 29th and 30th April for $8.71 and by the end of the 30th April day I was very smug as FBU closed at $8.84..I was up 13cents on the day :cool: :cool:... I told myself that this media release will be the kicker to break that down trending (yellow) rectangle channel..:)
1st May down FBU went :mellow:...not just down but gapped down :p :mad ;:

Where did I go wrong????... I listened to the media...I applied false logic....I broke my own discipline rules.....I ignored my TA discipline to wait for the break / buy signals...I ignored PT

....Idiot!!!....

As of this moment it has again successfully failed to break out of the bottom of the descending rectangle (around the 7.95 area) and has bounced off it to back at $7.99 (down 4c intraday)

Below the chart has the FBU price as candlesticks


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBU03052013.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/FBU03052013.png.html)

[Major von Tempsky]

Just look at the FA and you won't need to bother with all that.
Comparative (over time and against other stocks and prospective) Gross dividend yield, comparative P/Es together with the marked lack of enthusiasm by FBU executives for anything other than the bottom of the prospective EBITDA range.
I've been bleating for ages that FBU is vastly overvalued (still is) and TEL is vastly undervalued....

[Silverlight]

Oh really? Please provide posts.

Major said that Telecom was amazing and FBU was a dog 8 months ago, TEL was then 2.85+, FBU 6.00-... now look where we are.

[winner69]

Boral profit downgrade in Aussie

Things bit tough at the moment eh

[iceman]

Nick Smith this morning announcing an inquiry into pricing of building materials in NZ. Overdue and welcome in my view but could be a concern for FBU !

[CJ]

Nick Smith this morning announcing an inquiry into pricing of building materials in NZ. Overdue and welcome in my view but could be a concern for FBU !Depends where they go with this but in the short term it will put some uncertainty into the shareprice.

On The Nation, she kept mentioning pink batts. When I re-insulated my house, I got three quotes, non of which were for pink batts. Looks like there is enough competition there.

The issue from what I understand is that building products must meet certain NZ building standards. This stops the import of overseas products in most situations as they dont want to pay to get certified. This should be looked at but care needs to be taken that we dont get another 'leaky building' situation.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

belgarion until they have some true competition. It will be imposable to get a true indication of value.

[winner69]

I see dulux sales were up 20% and profit up 45% in their half year

Probably a lot of paint in Christchurch as well on the ever increasing number of new houses being built this year

Could be an indication of what fletchers can achieve once actual building, instead of fixing, starts to kick in

[Hoop]

Staying or going? ... A testing point in time. Was it just a big seller triggering a huge numbers of stops? Or a big seller or sellers at a hurry to get out at any cost?

Me? Was very, very tempted to trade the dead cat bounce but not quite tempted enough.

Now where too? Make or break time.
The OBV indicator showed no evidence of a big seller...the drop in momentum indicator suggests lack of buyers at the time of that negative presentation on the 2 May
Well ....FBU is testing its top limit of its downtrend channel again....it is in a young bull market cycle (see my previous posts)......therefore this downtrend should be seen as the first bull market correction in progress.
We have just seen a 15% correction so far which is at the more severe end of a theoretical correction....so...$8.10 should be the bottom...eh?? and we should soon witness a channel breakout and a climb to the TA target of $11.60

After a great successful run of channel trading this share for 12 of the last 18 months during 2009/2010 and trading the "big W" formation last year....this year I've manged to mistime and completely bugger things up ....so what do I know now..probably nothing and be wrong again..

Oh what the hell.......UP UP & AWAY!!!!!!:D ....$11 by Xmas

Disc: still Holding

[000831]

Well, a nice channel has formed on the charts and the market has tested the lower limit of $7.90-$8.00 and rebounded. Higher volumes is being seen and if FBU can continue this higher volume a breakout should be imminent (may be one downward test left however...).

4525

DISC - Not holding FBU, just watching :)


first time to see you draw this lovely thing

[000831]

My drawing is anything but lovely! Take a look back at older posts by moi on the "cup and handle" (or ladle as others have called it) for FBU :)


Could have another possibility, back to fundamentals now


4526

[000831]

could be a "V" turn, or a "W" turn, do you catch what I mean? up possibility higher than down if EPS grows.

[Hoop]

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3352907

Nice trade. Nerves of steel. ... But the writing is on the wall: Big boys (or girl in this case) are anticipating more weakness.

This Americian company could be seeing weakness in the "down under $$"....It has been a dream for the overseas investor investing in NZ these last few years...double wammey bull Equity/Currency markets up against the bear US$ and Euro
It seems money could be leaving NZ now as both FBU and TEL have suffered these last few days..........

[winner69]

Nothing to do with fundementals then Hoop?... ;)

You may get your wish belg .... $6 was it on fundamentals

[Hoop]

Nothing to do with fundementals then Hoop?... ;)

Nope... all to do with sentiment it seems ..eh?
XRO = $13.80
FBU = $ 8.31

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/xro.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/xro.png.html)

[macduffy]

The "vultures" are up to their old tricks again. The grandly named Washington Securities Pty Ltd is offering the generous (not) price of $5.00 per share for FBU holdings. I suppose a few tiny odd lots might be tempted but others should treat it with the disdain that it deserves!

Here endeth today's rant.

:mad ;:

[Hoop]

Where's our market authorities that said they were going to crackdown on this BS???

Why??? it is legal to barter and put in an offer...If a criminal law was put in place to stop this..most kiwis would be in Jail...eh??... At the moment if you buy an old car that is $1000 less than it's offer (market value) its a big story to tell your mates.....

[macduffy]

Where's our market authorities that said they were going to crackdown on this BS???

The FMA is given passing reference in the "Disclosure document" under the heading "Further important information". Presumably, this constitutes its attempt to "crack down". A start, I suppose.

[Guild]

Just about ethics, if you are in a paid job how do you feel about conducting private business on an employers time

[Guild]

I am completely on my own time, beautiful sunny afternoon, just sitting waiting on Fletchers to turn up and spoil my afternoon.
However I will have to add that I have been very impressed with the way that Fletcher Construction have handled road closure and drainage work in my area.
Also as a good will gesture for disruption, a group of their workers did some volunteer painting at our local primary school and Fletchers provided the paint. Good community spirit but eats into shareholder profit.

[Hoop]

its far wprse than that mate. I suspect they target older people who aren't up with the market either. would you be so blassè if yourgranny got one of these letters and wanted to sell?

I not condoning these unethical outfits .. I'm trying to make you guys think before you knee jerk laws into place regulating a free market and hampering a right to bargain.
Is it unlawful to sell a dress in high fashion shop for $1500 where you can pick up the same dress at K mart for $50.
If I bought Moosies' grandmothers 1970 Austin maxi for $50 instead of $500 is that unethical and made illegal.
Does that mean that all the buy offers on the stock market depths has to be within 2% of the current market price and anything outside that range if purchased you are fined or jailed...
Are you going to outlaw credit card debt interest repayment of 19.5% when the official market rate is 2.50%
The law has to be defined and in the case of low ball offers how can you make the law so precise as to not make that law an ass.

A better solution is what is happening now...make the general public aware that this type of thing is happening... make the scum bags publicly known... this includes credit card companies and other loan shark activities.
Its all to do with educating the people..education education education education education education

You guys might be ethically correct and it is hard to argue against a group that take the moral high ground ,,,but common sense must prevail, you can't just go around passing thousands of laws creating a highly regulated country and stifle all kinds of free markets and economies just to protect the uneducated or the straight out stupid people.

Why not try to stop schools spending too much time teaching crap e.g Shakespeare and get the schools to put more emphasis on teaching kids how to succeed in life make them aware of the pitfalls, teach them financial management and other life skills.....eh?

[Guild]

Good on ya mate, wasn't questioning your ethics at all but thanks for letting us know anyway ;) I am a full time student and consider this forum part of my learning experience :)

No problem I suspect my hide is as good as a moose's. I also treat this site as a learning experience but on my own time.

Hoop: I seriously agree schools should be providing skills on financial management other wise we will end up with yet another generation of kids that need to be fed by the Government and private business (us)

[macduffy]

The "vultures" are up to their old tricks again. The grandly named Washington Securities Pty Ltd is offering the generous (not) price of $5.00 per share for FBU holdings. I suppose a few tiny odd lots might be tempted but others should treat it with the disdain that it deserves!

Here endeth today's rant.

:mad ;:

Well! That certainly livened up a quiet thread! A bit of a waste of time though, in that no readers of this forum are going to be persuaded by Washington Securities Pty Ltd!

;)

[Hoop]

Well! That certainly livened up a quiet thread! A bit of a waste of time though, in that no readers of this forum are going to be persuaded by Washington Securities Pty Ltd!

;)

Yep you livened it up alright....well done Macduffy :D :D
Oh...got a offer letter for my Heartland shares yesterday....sorry guys you missed out as I have already sold them...for a much higher price :D

FBU is turning into a major disappointment I sold out took a loss and they're still falling ..It looks like they may retest the 810 support again ...I have to ask myself a question if they retest the 810 area, do I or don't I have another go with this share.

[percy]

[QUOTE=Hoop;409897

FBU is turning into a major disappointment I sold out took a loss and they're still falling ..It looks like they may retest the 810 support again ...I have to ask myself a question if they retest the 810 area, do I or don't I have another go with this share.[/QUOTE]

If you have another go will it be 'shorting' them.?

[percy]

I think so.Never done it,but the down trend FBU shows no sign of stopping.Testing the "trend is your friend" ? So may have a lot more to fall if/should the trend continue.

[Hoop]

I think so.Never done it,but the down trend FBU shows no sign of stopping.Testing the "trend is your friend" ? So may have a lot more to fall if/should the trend continue.

Hmmm me neither..interesting though.... I never thought about shorting. :mellow:

A while ago I got interested about shorting the likes of Rakon, etc I inquired about shorting with Direct Broking they told me they haven't got that facility....after that phone call I regained my sanity and I didn't pursue it any further...

Who does this type of stuff in NZ?? I've only got Leveraged Equities Finance Ltd via Forbar bookmarked on my Browser..

Anyone out there that's into short selling?

[macduffy]

shorting is boring shares from an owner to sell at the current price and to rebuy the same amount at a later date in anticipation of the shares falling. highly speculative and risky when others call the shots on the contract!

next support is $8 and a retest of lows a few weeks ago. I'm still hopeful my chart will play out

Certainly it's high risk and not my game at all, but not entirely correct that others call the shots. While the "borrow" contract may be inflexible in terms, protection lies in being able to offset the risk by purchasing a matching parcel at any time, provided, of course, that the market is liquid enough.

[macduffy]

This is true, just depends how fast the stock wants to go downwards and how far down the rabbit hole you are willing to go before buying, knowing the rabbit may revert to popping up again!

More problematic though, is how fast the stock rebounds - if it does - and whether and to what extent you want to back your original bet before giving in and admitting defeat, ie by buying and taking the loss.

:ohmy:

[bonne vie]

FBU at buy 7.73. appears good value. No analysis but just alerting other readers

[bonne vie]

I was going to attach the depth chart but can't seem to get the number of images to 20 to enable it to be attacged.

Anyway I have a query, from my limited experience this depth chart was very different. Appears (if poss) a limit price of 773 was showing, and now all sales matched at 810. I went to buy at the buy price 773 but missed out. Am I right to assume the buy price is the lowest ask price (whether fixed or limit) and all orders above that are going to be filled first. A lesson learned if that is the case and a pity the buy price does not net off the bids first to give a clear price. Or I guess the moral is to look at the depth rather than the buy price when ordering - DB,

[bonne vie]

7.73 is still way too rich for my liking. FBU is on a very high PE ratio and simply cannot justify it based on its growth prospects. While there may be some growth in NZ - Oz is looking weak. The down trend continues and 7.73 will be hit in a month or less.

Thanks Belgarion, yes the PE is still high. I sold out of FBU shares, purchased 2008/09, at $9.01 earlier this year and was looking for a re entry price - But thanks to you highlighting the PE I am now thinking maybe there will be cheaper/better opportunities (not FBU) coming up - I must be patient.
Are you able to clarify my query re the FBU depth chart 21/6/13?

Current portfolio made of ABA, AIA,ATM, BLT,BRM, CEN, DIL,FPH, HNZ, IFT, KFL, PEB, SNK, SUM & TEN, with DIL & SUM approx 41% and next largest PEB 11%. - Feeling a little nervous with volume of growth companies, few exporters and DIL (via growth) now 24%.

[CJ]

Did Paddy Gower just increase FBU shareprice by 3%. The increase is about the time he broke the story that Nat support the CRL!

[CJ]

Eh? Link? What are ya on about?http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10893094

Let me know if you spot anything else that explains FBU jump at 12

[winner69]

A 47% increase in new residential building consents for May

Heaps more stuff Fletchers make to be used in the coming year

And it wasn't jsut Chch either

Total new consents still less than 19,000 pa - experts say will get to 24,000 pa in a couple of years.

[Hoop]

Our breakout may be starting. $8.60 is above our downward channel now...

Got up to 864 and choked :p
closed at 843 so it tested its topside channel and failed..Technically that's probably not good news:mellow: ...however on the bright side Moosie's handle just got longer :D

[Hoop]

lol she tried and failed. ah well looks like a few more weeks of up and down action........
pump her up yur reckon?...:D

[MAC]

If we see a close at these levels, above MA50 and just above the trading range, we could see a recovery unfolding over the next several weeks.

I'd like to see the SP hold above this level into next week, post US jobs announcement, for confirmation.

[kizame]

Has broken thru the upper channel line so looking good.

[Hoop]

Has broken thru the upper channel line so looking good.

Hmmmmmm eehh ummm.....maybe :mellow:..I just ran the Standard Deviation channel app and it does show FBU's nose just breaking upwards....errr..I might hold back jumping in here ...I'm not keen acting on photo finishes...uggg huff puff pant :p..must admit there's been plenty of confirms of triggered buy signals these last few days hasn't there....Hmmm......ahhhh grunt....NZX50 in correction mode

meh!! ....I'll look at it tomorrow

[MAC]

Crumbs Hoop, why don't you have a double night cap and sleep on it, let us all know in the morning.

[Hoop]

unless world war z (just saw it at zee movies) breaks out I think were ok for the rest of the week :)

aahaa...FBU 855 down 11 (-1.3%) as I type... hands stay in pockets... cash stays in the bank ...awaiting the zombie attack.....bring it on baby!!

[MAC]

Seems to be retracing back inside the bolinger band for now. I'd still wait another week for confirmation Moosie.

[winner69]

FBU
28/06/2013 14:25
COMCOM

REL: 1425 HRS Fletcher Building Limited

COMCOM: FBU: Regulatory Inquiry into Auckland Timber Market

Auckland, 28 June 2013 - Fletcher Building is aware of an inquiry being
undertaken by the New Zealand Commerce Commission into some pricing activity
in the Auckland timber market. The company is co-operating with the Commerce
Commission and providing information, but Fletcher Building does not expect
the Commission will take any enforcement action against the company or any of
its subsidiaries.

For further information contact:

Philip King
General Manager Investor Relations
Phone: + 64 9 525 9043
Mobile: + 64 27 444 0203

Ends
End CA:00237969 For:FBU Type:COMCOM Time:2013-06-28 14:25:18

NBR seems pretty convinced that fletchers knew what was going on ...and maybe implicated

One less Placemakers jv in existence already ...and maybe that's why the head honcho is leaving

[winner69]

Highest close for a few months .... that a good sign eh moose

[MAC]

Still a very close ongoing correlation with the Australian construction sector isn't there;

Too many aussie and not enough christchurch traders ?

4647

[CJ]

it sure is! the uptrend is starting, just need higher volume, good news and a few days closing above $9.40 to confirm. excited!I'd be very excited if it closed above $9.40 too. ;)

[nextbigthing]

More quake damage but this time Wellington. Sure it's no where near as significant as Chch but could still be enough to keep things pumping for FBU at little longer. Surprised it only rose two cents. Thoughts?

Disc own small amount of FBU

[Schrodinger]

don't think FBU specialises in seismic strengthening? correct me if I'm wrong?

Need to replace water pipes, upgrade roads, retaining walls, renovate etc.

I will have to check to see their exposure to infrastructure but they had the Chch rebuild contract so I think they have some good exposure to it.

[Silverlight]

Small potatoes that'll mainly be done by local contractors. Sweet bugger all for FBU

The elephant in the room facing FBU at the moment is the Australian operations, with the integration of Crane, the luke warm construction market, and the significant rally in the NZDAUD, given they report in NZD, but almost 40% of earnings are in Australian dollars. I am optimistic on the rebuild, but there could be further downside surprise out of Australia, before this comes through.

[Billy Boy]

I agree Silverlight
Volumes well down 2day....
and the FLYR report only five- six weeks away.
Hopefully the calm B4 the storm.
next 10 or so days away will be telling
BB

[Billy Boy]

right on moosie..... Crane's... ??.... have they got it sorted yet?
And have they sorted Cranes enough to flow through into this FLLYR.?
BB

[winner69]

Not the usual excitement per FBU results announcement ...if anything it seems to have negative vibes about it.

Probably another not quiet yet result but all the god things are about to happen ...next year

I given up on my 14 bucks and the up up and away story

Now watch the shareprice take off !!!!!

[winner69]

Prob why the fall today

If Aussie shareholders rule the waves with FBU then negative sentiments fr a while

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/building-approvals-dive--but-no-collapse-20130730-2qwb9.html

[MAC]

It seems it takes a heck of a lot to break out of a multiyear sector correlation, FBU have not thus far lowered guidance like BLD and others in the sector.

What will it take, reporting at the upper end of guidance, exceeding guidance, maybe ?

[winner69]

we've been over this. take a look back through the thread regarding p/e ratio

CBS will change that when the new ful year is known

[macduffy]

FWIW, Macquaries are picking EPS "growth" of -4.6% YoY for the half to 30/6/2013; -3.4% for the full 2013 year; a 1 year forward PER of 17, presumably on current SP.

[MAC]

Presumably that would be -3.4% on underlying eps rather than on the 185M reported NPAT. Even so, if Macquaries are representative of the greater Australian market view and have priced in this view, and FBU comfortably meet guidance of op earnings growth within their estimated 12% and 20% range, the SP may well just blow upon FY13 reporting.

[winner69]

Somebody posted the link to milford active growth fund on the DIL thread

See they have 4.5% of their fund in FBU ....2nd largest holding

Guru fund manager confident of FBU prospects ....great vote of confidence

[winner69]

I think Aussie lot tougher now than a few months ago

Methinks profit will be just ok this time around ....but they will say 700-1000 jobs need to go because of Australia

Will that ke shareholders happy ,,,,,usually good news is putting people on the scrap heap so maybe shareprice will start to rise from here

[Billy Boy]

I think Aussie lot tougher now than a few months ago

Methinks profit will be just ok this time around ....but they will say 700-1000 jobs need to go because of Australia

Will that ke shareholders happy ,,,,,usually good news is putting people on the scrap heap so maybe shareprice will start to rise from here
And if the FED'S start lifting the plug in Sept. ???
BB

[Billy Boy]

I think Aussie lot tougher now than a few months ago

Methinks profit will be just ok this time around ....but they will say 700-1000 jobs need to go because of Australia

Will that ke shareholders happy ,,,,,usually good news is putting people on the scrap heap so maybe shareprice will start to rise from here
And if the FED'S start lifting the QE plug in Sept. ???
BB

[winner69]

Agree with you belg .....profit about what they said but a less than rosy picture about the future .....and lots of jobs to go in oz (That should help the shareprice ha ha)

And we should not forget it is oz instos that drive the shareprice now ......and they will see less profit in oz as a bad thing

What you think 750 maybe ...surely not less

[Wolf]

Hope it wont go to 7.50 surely AUS can't drive it down that far.

[Servaas]

turn around in the USA Formica business

Extract from FBU F13 results announcement:

"Formica’s operating earnings before significant items were $58 million, down from $71 million in the prior year. Volumes and revenue in Europe were down by 5 percent. Markets in Spain, Central Europe and the United Kingdom continued to deteriorate, Scandinavia remained stable, and further increases were recorded in Russia and the Middle East.

Revenues in Asia were down by 2 per cent with volumes down in China and Taiwan by 2 per cent and 3 per cent respectively, while Thailand remained stable.

In North America, revenue was up by 1 per cent while volumes were up marginally over the prior year. Continued improvement in the residential sector was largely offset by the commercial market in which Formica has a greater exposure, with no improvement evident over the prior year."

[MAC]

So, both the twin sisters, FBU and BLD, report today.

FBU has a 76% rise in NPAT, BLD has a 220% drop in NPAT.

Will this be enough to break the long running sector correlation, or will Australian traders just continue to do what they do.

Any thoughts from those whom closely research FBU ?

[baller18]

here comes the uptrend! looks like we might see a retest of $9.40 again. wow, I thought my handle was broken! interesting few weeks ahead...
Why do you see the uptrend moosie? From the positive report alone?

[winner69]

So, both the twin sisters, FBU and BLD, report today.

FBU has a 76% rise in NPAT, BLD has a 220% drop in NPAT.

Will this be enough to break the long running sector correlation, or will Australian traders just continue to do what they do.

Any thoughts from those whom closely research

FBU ?

FBU weren't really up 76% ...only a couple

Bld was a shocker

Hopefully the Aussies will realise that FBU nz earnings over the next year or will be very healthy and rerate accordingly

[MAC]

Yeah, FBU up 4.8%, BLD down 4.0% as we speak. It may take a little time for the FBU story to stick in Australia, but surely the differentiation is now as dramatic as earthquakes.

Well done holders.

[Hoop]

holder as at 9.01'ish am this morning - pays to be prepared.

I've been prepared this entire reporting season with buy ins a couple of days before announcements and exit on the announcement day
With FBU ..too big a risk with a mediocre report and a big black global equity cloud looming overhead, so elected to give FBU a miss...and went for AIA which gave a far better result but only gave me 1% so far!!!!

This FBU report in my view wasn't great ... EPS went up 2% and the punters are out celebrating ...what a load of......

OK...I'm biased with sour grapes as I missed the years biggest one day stand (6.6% = 3 weeks pay for me) :p

[MAC]

It's certainly a good day out for patient FA's.

Despite the difficulties across the Tasman the SP has been still further suppressed by Australian TA's for the last few months now. We're likely to see a reversion back toward fundamental valuations over the next few weeks.

[CJ]

This FBU report in my view wasn't great ... EPS went up 2% and the punters are out celebrating ...what a load of......

OK...I'm biased with sour grapes as I missed the years biggest one day stand (6.6% = 3 weeks pay for me) :pI agree. The negative sentiment re Australia and row didn't inspire but in saying that, that could have been completely factored in.

[MAC]

Astonishing, BLD is now up 3.5% despite the 220% drop in NPAT and being down 4% this morning.

I have to say you traders with your sector correlation obsessions just seem bonkers to me. Oh well, at least BLD is following FBU for a change.

[_Michael]

I couldn't agree more ... but for some reason Mr Mkt loves FBU and is prepared to support high PE ratio that IMHO are simply not justified.

Agree. One hand they are exposed to structural bull market with NZ building on the other hand

1. they are such a capex heavy business that if you look at market cap over free cash flow looks very very expensive and
2. to me the concern in Australia is they appear to be losing market share as AU starts were overall up almost as much as NZ

I prefer MVN for exposure to coming construction boom

[winner69]

Macquarie said result ok'ish and did best their own forecast

Still thinks consensus F14 forecasts are too high

Macquarie price target $7.60 ....yet and in NZD

Slightly reduced their Boral and Adelaide Brighton numbers as well

A sector that under performs both asx and nzx

[Timid]

Just hit $8.95

Breakout? Or will it fail...

[winner69]

Good finish to day ad a close over 9 bucks

Price being led by Aussies ....prob yes .....looks like Tony Wabbot is going to cause a housing boom ....starting next week

That'll boost FBU in Aussie and heaps more activity to come in NZ

NZ residential just hit 19000 a year ....heading to 25000 pa and commercial/infrastructure all on a growth path

Up up and away ....maybe that 14 bucks not so outrageous after all

And moosie going to have a cuppa

[winner69]

Good day today

More volume in Aussie then here ......is that usual?

If nothing else good Aussies see the upside in fbu

[winner69]

Now 925

What was the key level to break through moosie?

Looking good though

[winner69]

Maybe the cup handle just broke moosie

Bit of decline today below 940

The guru analyst will put down to profit taking ....if they can find an other reason

End of week closes are always interesting .....one old timer once told me that was the real price for the week as the end of week was th time when the movers and shakers (sellers and buyers) sorted out their positions for the week so they had a worry free weekend. Spose some rational in that thinking.

Maybe 940 odd all it going to do for now

[Billy Boy]

Books Close 27 Sep...17c div.
Could go a bit above $9.40
Instos and "IN" still getting in
BB

[nextbigthing]

Still going. Where to from here?

Disc; hold

[peat]

$14 haha! but in all seriousness, much, much higher if you've been following my cup and handle posts on here...

this has actually triggered now ??
I reviewed this pattern a while ago and I was thinking at that time it still had some way to go.
Pattern is quite large time frame cf Bulkowski, your cup lasted all this year. but yeh kinda looks like all on at this point unless you were waiting for a retracement and retest of support.

[Wolf]

OMG $36 million turnover today ....and an up day as well

Must have been those really strong consent numbers .....20% plus increase ... Just the start of a big cyclical upturn in building activity in nz

That 14 bucks looking good


Hate to go against the postive posts but i remember at the start of the year everyone thought it was going to make a break too.

Disc: Sold most of my FBU shares.

[winner69]

all going to plan .... it is a ladle after all

[Wolf]

Thats some nice extrapolation but seems quite far fetched to me.

[winner69]

Thats some nice extrapolation but seems quite far fetched to me.

Just your normal ladle pattern (a variant of the cup and handle pattern) that I was trying to teach moosie about