CUE-> Pantheon of small oil stocks

[ELYOB]

Hey Shrude Crude,

Posted on another site last few days, can you tell us anything in WA-389-P

"Cue are silent about a 4th block WA-389-P , where they did the Rose3D [CUE 100%]. This is north adjoining WA-409-P and WA-359-P [with MEO]. Funny how CUE never tell us much about the future? CUE says its all about performance , not future speculation ."

Thanks , keep the good work going on the CUE

[elZorro]

Macdunk and Shrewd Crude, thanks for your postings yesterday, I haven't laughed so hard in ages! And yet, plenty of good information in there.

Disc: tried with CUE for a while, hard work..

[duncan macgregor]

Macdunk and Shrewd Crude, thanks for your postings yesterday, I haven't laughed so hard in ages! And yet, plenty of good information in there.

Disc: tried with CUE for a while, hard work.. You would have died laughing at me trying to show the young punk how to strut like a true champion last time we met at the Auckland get together. Very clumsy with a complete lack of timing just like his investing.

Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

Hey Shrude Crude,
can you tell us anything in WA-389-P


ELYOB,
theres not a heap of information floating around...
Ive seen nothing on prospects in that permit...
CUE have 5 permits in Carnarvon Basin,
Two in the North
WA 409-P
and WA 389-P
and 3 tied in with MEO WA-359-P,WA-360-P,WA-361-P

yes... 5 permits...

The 3d Seismic survery by OEX last year only captured a small part of the north western boarder on our permit WA 389-9 (350-450 square KM's)...
we own 100% of it...
and 50% of WA-409-P...

http://media.wotnews.com.au/asxann/00838713.pdf

There is very minimal information around about 409, and 389 in the North... I highly believe that CUE are going to farmout stakes in these permits for a free carried well, and work program (similar to 359,360,361)...
as CUE will lose them if they do not apply minimum work commitment...
As for their prospective nature...
On trend with Ratkin and contains similar exploration plays to blocks 359,360,361...
at the moment its all for free...
Minimum work commitment on 409 is a 2d seismic survery for a cost of 3 million dollars...
and secondary work commitment to drop one well at a cost of 25million dollars... this permit was awarded in May 2008, and I believe no work commitments have taken place to date......
CUE will farm them out...
looks attractive for a farmin partner with all the recent hype in the region.....
We will get 15% of Artemis free carried for no cost...
...
Did anyone read the OEX announcement about it farming down its 25% stake to 10% for a free carry for two wells later this year, and reimbursment of costs to date...
200 million barrels of targets...
good hype value...

lots to be excited about...
far more excitment in real assets, a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush...
exploration is just that...hopefully a bit of fun in this region over the next few years...
Artemis looking on for early next year...
offers requested by 31st August... and hoping to have a deal by 30th September...
for me im just going to keep quiet about all of this, its going to unfold over time, im more focused on what we have, those real assets than buying into hype speculation and manipulation......
I will let those on HC pump it up, hopefully we go for a run on two birds in the bush...
a whole lot of supporting activities coming up...
yeah harrgghhh...

Mackdunk,
I sense that your backing off after that post...
come back mate...
round 2...
this is just heating up........
http://www.sjgs.com/spot.gif
..^sc-strut on that...

[ELYOB]

Shrude Crude, there will be a rig available end Nov+ on the NWS , or even straight away , depending on TOTAL (French Oil coy) negotiations

[ These are the Songa rigs .... Songa Mercur and Songa Venus]

[STRAT]

Mackdunk, Phaedrus, AA, and strat really know their stuff...
IMO AA and Strat have really stuck out because at certain times they have held positions (based on FA), even though TA would have gotten them out long ago......
a mixture of the two systems is the best shot...

:cool:
.^scShrewdy you give me too much credit :o

You are right of course I am prone to buy into a story or hold beyond TA signals at times because of Fundamentals.
Your post made me have a good look at my trades over the last year and in every case where this applied I would have done better trusting the TA :eek:

Im trying to give up this bad behaviour but its a bit like giving up smoking for me :D:o

[STRAT]

In keeping with the previous post CUE has given some clear short term sell signals over the last few days

Short term trend line break
Drop below the 8dma
OBV trendline break
Drop in RSI
Ingulfing candle on Friday.

Am I selling? not yet lol :rolleyes:
reasoning is entry price av 13.5c, uptrend starting 24th Feb still in tact and its a bloody good story :o

[Crypto Crude]

mackdunk-We could have a great time having each other on. Being an FA investor {we all know what that reepresents]


fantastically amazing investor...
wow thanks mackdunk...

hey Elyob...
as soon as that?
wow... that is great to hear, I never knew that...

Shrewdy you give me too much credit :o


strat-You are right of course I am prone to buy into a story or hold beyond TA signals at times because of Fundamentals.
Your post made me have a good look at my trades over the last year and in every case where this applied I would have done better trusting the TA :eek:

TA, FA... what about MA?
Ive got to try out MA...
also known as mackdunk analysis...
The theory behind this strategy is as follows,
you buy anything he is selling, and vice versa...
hehehe... this would have worked a treat with CUE...
maximising profits...
he was saying sell sell sell when the DOW was 7000...
that would have been a good signal to buy buy buy...
the MA signal...
hey mackdunk,
let us know when your buying...
MA could come into play...
;)
.^sc

[STRAT]

TA, FA... what about MA?
Ive got to try out MA...
also known as mackdunk analysis...

;)
.^scWould that be a 30 day Macdunk Analisis? :p

Have you managed to talk Duncan into coming down to Auckland in November? He didnt answer my message about it.

I would love to see him on Nitas lap and the pair of you dancing together. I will be bringing a camera :D

[evilroyrule]

hi strat, been looking at some basic volume charts going back a bit and there seems to have been some fairly high volumes in cue recent times without much movement in price. how does that come about? in my very basic analysis i had thought continued high volume wld influence price one way or other or is it momentum building????

[STRAT]

hi strat, been looking at some basic volume charts going back a bit and there seems to have been some fairly high volumes in cue recent times without much movement in price. how does that come about? in my very basic analysis i had thought continued high volume wld influence price one way or other or is it momentum building????Hi Roy,
You will read a lot about traders manipulating prices, capping and the like. While I know it does happen a lot I reckon a lot less than you read on forums. Personally I like to look at it simply and like this. The forces being created by both buyers and sellers are equal if the price is not moving. I think in the last few run ups with CUE there were quite a few holders who had run out of patience selling into the new interest in the stock and this is why it took a while to get going price wise. I remember watching the intraday and wondering if the sellers would ever dry up. Then again that might have been another stock lol. I did drugs when I was young :p:eek::D ( depends on which period exactly you are talking about).

Anyone else got any thoughts on this?

[STRAT]

Just had a look at the chart.
Notice all the high volume days are up days with the exception being the 24th (green line on chart) but on this day CUE gapped up at open ( some impetuous buyer getting a bit carried away maybe ) all in all looking good. Then the sell signals came and the price has been retracing ever since but on lower volume ( day traders getting out perhaps plus the overall turn in Markets in general and the POO )
My hunch is CUE will continue to slip as long as the POO and the Markets in general are slipping and its a bit early to be worried about that. Next couple of days I might change my mind though.

Just my 2c worth. Dont forget Im no expert

[Hawke]

With the Poo up strongly today.....= a rebound in Cue today? -onwards to a new high soon.

Hawke.

[Crypto Crude]

hey Hawke,
CUE back in business this morning...
one of the best...
:cool:
.^sc

[upside_umop]

Strat/Phaedrus, can you draw up a better chart? My edited asb securities in paint doesnt quite cut it! Gives an idea though...new mac arriving tomorrow!

Looks like a symmetrical triangle is well underway here. Well a slightly steeper angle from the top which is bearish.

Circa 50/50 chance breakout.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3583/3838732540_e9122e3429.jpg

[STRAT]

Strat/Phaedrus, can you draw up a better chart? My edited asb securities in paint doesnt quite cut it! Gives an idea though...new mac arriving tomorrow!

Looks like a symmetrical triangle is well underway here. Well a slightly steeper angle from the top which is bearish.

Circa 50/50 chance breakout.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3583/3838732540_e9122e3429.jpgHi Ooooomop.
If your chart was logarithmic it would be close enough to symmetrical I reckon. CUE slipped through the upper line today while going sideways so wouldnt call it as much of anything. Momentum and volume dropping off. My guess is we are in for some more typical CUE. ie going sideways. Next couple of days might make things clearer. Incidentally none of the sell indicators in the earlier chart marked by the red lines have reversed

[JBmurc]

Strachan in Stockanalysis today , gives CUE as the better entry ahead of MEO into the 20TCF big "A" play next to the giants on NWS

Super pissed with the IRD atm have been waiting for 8 weeks now for my tax rebate for my share trading aways planned to buy more CUE when the accountant first sent the IRD the imfo CUE was 13.5c arrrgg still will pay 20c now as CUE should well fly in the future..

[Phaedrus]

Short term trend line break
Drop below the 8dma
OBV trendline break
Drop in RSI
Engulfing candle on Friday.Everything STRAT says here is quite correct, but as he points out, these are short-term signals.

It is possible to stand too close to the action and miss the big picture. There is little point in sweating the small stuff. Take a look at this 4 year overview to get a sense of perspective of CUE and where it is going. For those that are not interested in active trading, see how ignoring a lot of market noise and keeping solely to the really big signals nevertheless gives good returns.

CUE is quite a volatile stock - it pays to give it a bit of room to breathe.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/CUE821.gif

[Crypto Crude]

hummm, accelerating uptrend...
I like that...
what phaedrus's chart does not say is that the time from when TA signals were negative, from August 2008 until May 2009, was when CUE's SP should have been rising because Maari was derisking... week on week...
The mother of Crashes held this back and now its unleashing...
We have made a great mark on the Taranaki region, to ramp all future activities off...
This field already has larger reserves than TUI...
Manaia, M2A, and maybe the lower zone (kapuni group) is close to double TUI reserves...
This company is going places just on this one project...
got to have this support for a company with low downside risk (hehehehe)

Those cashflows are injected back into the business, so we might not see it on the balance sheet like NZO, not until after 2015 when PNG comes in and at that point we will be a bigger growth story than NZO...
mark my Words...Long term view...
much happening in the short term also....

Next quarterly should be a ripper with cargo timing out in the last quarter, and oil recieved... Maari oil gets 50c (+,-) than the Brent Benchmark...
So when I see Brent at 72.77 US per barrel right now im amazed to see CUE low even if CUE was a one project company...
$73 US barrels in the biggest market recession in 80 years,
something is up... Invest in oil...
CUE worth 40cents right now even with Artemis failure factored in (PA)...

Phaedrus,
I have a question if you wouldnt mind...
Do you think that Markets are efficient, or inefficient?...
For example,
is all information incoporated into the market value,
What about publications eg press.. or are markets just heard mentality?...
interesting question...
:cool:
.^sc

[STRAT]

what phaedrus's chart does not say is that the time from when TA signals were negative, from August 2008 until May 2009, was when CUE's SP should have been rising because Maari was derisking... week on week...
The mother of Crashes held this back
:cool:
.^scYou have it in a nut shell Shrewdy. Theres more to the share price than just the prospects and activities within any company. Thats why I like TA. You should get into it. Youd have a good running shoe on both feet then and thered be no stopping ya. :D

[Phaedrus]

Phaedrus, I have a question.......Do you think that Markets are efficient, or inefficient?Inefficient.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis is an academic construct that was debunked in the 1980's. It implies that share prices adjust to publicly available new information very rapidly and in an unbiased fashion, such that no excess returns can be earned by trading on that information. In its Semi-strong-form at least, this implies that neither fundamental analysis nor technical analysis techniques will be able to reliably produce excess returns. We know that this is simply not true. John W. Henry, Larry Hite, Ed Seykota, Richard Dennis, William Eckhardt, Victor Sperandeo, Michael Marcus, Paul Tudor Jones and many others have each amassed massive fortunes via the use of technical analysis and its concepts. Buffett and others have employed fundamental analysis with spectacular success.

The developing field of Behavioral Finance studies market inefficiencies such as underreactions or overreactions to information as causes of market trends, bubbles and crashes. Such misreactions have been attributed to limited investor attention, overconfidence, overoptimism, mimicry (the herd instinct) and noise trading. Other key observations made in behavioral finance literature include the asymmetry between decisions to buy or sell (the "bird in the bush" paradox) and the strong loss aversion or regret attached to selling shares at a loss. (Genesove & Mayer, 2001). We all know about that one. That's why Stop Losses are so unpopular!

[Financially dependant]

Good to see a bit of great news out of Maari...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=aMGDVQsrdx5w

[macduffy]

Good to see a bit of great news out of Maari...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=aMGDVQsrdx5w

And that's almost 2,000bpd as CUE's share.

Tempting to do some sums on a hypothetical annual revenue at that rate!

:cool:

[trackers]

And that's almost 2,000bpd as CUE's share.

Tempting to do some sums on a hypothetical annual revenue at that rate!

:cool:

WTI up to $73 (high for the year?)...Great timing

[STRAT]

WTI up to $73 (high for the year?)...Great timingThanks Trackers. Thats made my day as Im holding a sack full of oilers. Where did you source your info?

[Corporate]

Thanks Trackers. Thats made my day as Im holding a sack full of oilers. Where did you source your info?

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

[STRAT]

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.htmlThanks Corporate

[macduffy]

Or try this one.

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_crude

Interesting to see that most oils are now around levels of three years ago.

Tapis, which I assume Maari is priced off is around USD77.

:cool:

[trackers]

Or try this one.

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_crude

Interesting to see that most oils are now around levels of three years ago.

Tapis, which I assume Maari is priced off is around USD77.

:cool:

Yep thats the one I use too :)

[STRAT]

Thanks fellas

[Crypto Crude]

phaedrus-inefficient


great answer... you were pinned had you answered that differently...
is the rest your answer, or a computer answer?
Dont answer that...
Your response is too good, but then again, that is what we have come to expect...




We all know about that one. That's why Stop Losses are so unpopular!


phaedrus,
When an investor buys a stock based on fundamentals, they buy because they see value, future value...
When the stock prices falls, that value increases...
so the more it falls, the greater the attractiveness of the stock...
This is a reason why we dont sell when the information is unchanged,
or a matter of fact, when that info gets better...
yeahh ahhhrrggggaarrrggghhhhhh....
:cool:
.^sc

[STRAT]

phaedrus,
When an investor buys a stock based on fundamentals, they buy because they see value, future value...
When the stock prices falls, that value increases...

:cool:
.^scOnly for those who havent bought yet Shrewdy. Once you are in at that higher price you can never gain that additional value if it materializes.

If things do change for the worse and it doesnt materialize then you end up with :o and :(.................

[Phaedrus]

When an investor buys a stock based on fundamentals, they buy because they see value, future value...When the stock prices falls, that value increases...so the more it falls, the greater the attractiveness of the stock...Right! - so the more they buy!!! Here is a salutory example of just such an approach. Read all these comments carefully - there is a lot to be learnt a lot from a chart such as this. Observe the pernicious practice of "averaging down" in action!

Regardless of what Shrewdy claims, the fact is that everybody makes mistakes. The important thing is what you do after that. To my mind, it is crucial to recognise any mistake early and to do all you can to limit the damage. The posters here were so sure that they had assessed the fundamentals of this stock accurately that they were unwilling, indeed unable to accept that they had got it wrong. Some even bragged that they never used stop-losses! Month after month, their optimistic prognostications were crushed as the inexorable downtrend continued. They were in a hole but did they stop digging? No, they dug deeper, buying more and more, averaging down as the shareprice progressively collapsed. Throwing good money after bad. See how these posters influenced each other with their comments - threads like this become support groups for those that have all made the same mistake. The effects of "group think" are all too evident as they lead each other down the garden path.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/PEM2008.gif

This stock is now at less than 40 cents. I haven't named it in an attempt to protect the identities of the poor misguided sods that wittingly or unwittingly contributed their comments to this chart.

[macduffy]

Thanks for the reminder, Phaedrus. Loved it!

Hope I wasn't one of the poor sods!


;)

[JBmurc]

Is This the chart of OGC looks very similar (my biggest loss paying 2.50 selling sub $1)
Ya live n learn aways twice as quick when it's a loss :(

Great movie on ONE atm

[ScrappyO]

Is This the chart of OGC looks very similar (my biggest loss paying 2.50 selling sub $1)
Ya live n learn aways twice as quick when it's a loss :(

Great movie on ONE atm

PEM i believe

[axion]

I agree with Phaedrus. I think people need to have a somewhat different POV than "I'm a value investor, share price goes down I'm getting more value". IMO the thing that gets most traders isn't lack of ability (lets face it making money in the share market shouldn't be tough, markets generally are trending upwards) it's lack of control/disipline in regards to money management.

Now sure, if you're Warren Buffett who has a whole bunch of his portfolio in cash equivalents you can hold the course for as long as it takes. But what Keynes says applies to most everyone else "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid". I must say it's also quite arrogant for people to think they know something the market doesn't. Perhaps they do, but I think most people who think they do really don't.

That being said I don't think TA is the holy grail and I think many of the indicators are little more than self-fulfilling prophecies. However some of the indicators are completely objective (where you have some set predefined rules and thus they're not being interpreted dynamically by a human, who might switch it up to conform with his views) and a very good way of deciding entries/exists (for the shares you've picked as having value) without letting your emotions get involved in the situation.

And finally, "A consciousness of wrongdoing is the first step to salvation." -- Epicurus


[note: on the lookout for a synonym for "I think"]

[note2: I'm not attacking anyone's ideas here, just giving my own. But I am fairly well convinced that these days hard and fast "I'm from this camp of investment style" is not optimal and that embracing a lot of different ideas/investment styles is the ideal. And there is plenty of that here which is great and I hope it continues as we have some incredibly talented people here who understand many different investment styles]

[Crypto Crude]

KISS....
Keep it simple Stupid...
ever heard that saying before...?

Just make a simple strategy to sell when it comes to your mind that you should sell... If you thought about selling, then you probably should...
though, easier said than done...

I know Phaedrus picks up on FA when it goes bad......
just because you are TA (technically an arse) or FA (fantastically amazing), does not mean you are guaranteed returns, or superior or whatever......Sometimes we stuff up in our own discipline, sometimes people should not be investing/investors in the first place... but all in all, just because they stuffed up in your example Phaedrus, does not mean you can group us all together...
Its like you telling me, They stuffed up (with OGC?) and because they stuffed up, then so did you...
thats too much of a generalisation...

Now, mackdunk would probably be a good example of where TA has gone wrong, because his TA is all messed up compared to AA, Strat, and Phaedrus... he uses the silly 30 Day moving average as his lead indicator...
flashing buy signals when the share price passes the 30 moving average....
He bought CUE when he should have been selling, and he sold when he should have been buying...
although mackdunk would never admit it, he probably suppliments TA with FA...I say this because theres no way shotty TA could have made him so much money before the market crash...

Each to their own...
Yogi is into astroanalysis, I have accepted that he is very good at what he does, even though hes only a 50/50 investor...
lately shasta is an 'in and out' investor...
and for quite some time mackdunk has not been an investor...(but he did stuff up with CUE)...
whats steve? a penny investor?
And digger, was the last one on CUE before it left the station...

Phaedrus,
if you want to question my FA, please do...
but dont start throwing a lasso around us by grouping all us together...
thats what cowboys do...

Moving target mate...
im not easily caught...;)
:cool:
.^sc

[Phaedrus]

"I know Phaedrus picks up on FA when it goes bad......"
I am NOT picking on FA. I am bagging averaging down. Illustrating the need for Stop-Losses. Showing what happens when you add to losing positions. Demonstrating the need for exit strategies. Portraying what happens to those that choose to ignore market sentiment.

"Just because they stuffed up in your example Phaedrus, does not mean you can group us all together...Its like you telling me, They stuffed up and because they stuffed up, then so did you...thats too much of a generalisation. Dont start throwing a lasso around us by grouping all us together..Moving target mate...im not easily caught..."
You carry the seeds of your own destruction, Shrewdy. You claim "I personally don't make mistakes when I go in large". That is your Achilles heel, right there. Hubris. You cannot conceive of ever getting it wrong, so you see no need to have a plan in place to handle that possibility. If a stock you have bought goes down, you think it is the market that has got it wrong, not you. THAT is what destroyed the mug-punters featured in the chart. Arrogance, overconfidence and their bull-headed refusal to accept that they had made a mistake. Like you, they thought they were right every time. They were unwilling or unable to accept even the possibility that they might have got one wrong. So they rode it right to the bottom, trumpeting their "rightness", scoffing at the market, TA, fund managers etc the whole way down.

Shrewdy, those mugs didn't lose all that money because they used FA. They lost big-time because they were overconfident and had no exit strategy, no contingency plan.

[STRAT]

Now, mackdunk would probably be a good example of where TA has gone wrong, because his TA is all messed up compared to AA, Strat, and Phaedrus...
although mackdunk would never admit it, he probably suppliments TA with FA...I say this because theres no way shotty TA could have made him so much money before the market crash...

:cool:
.^scHi Shrewdy.
Couple of things if I may

1st up, Im not in the same league as the other two mentioned above. Not even close. Whats more there are plenty of others on this site sharper too

Our mate Macdunk
You and I have both met him, had a beer/Scotch or two and shared banta on these sites over the years. Hes easy to like and easier to argue with but surely you have figured out his strengths by now? It aint TA or FA. Its street smarts and good perception of the big and bigger picture.

[troyvdh]

...strat...you have meet him....really.....is he slow to offend...i imagine he is......tell me more...is he rich.....no ..it may appear that i am taking the pi.. but i would love to meet him...cheers

[STRAT]

...strat...you have meet him....really.....is he slow to offend...i imagine he is......tell me more...is he rich.....no ..it may appear that i am taking the pi.. but i would love to meet him...cheersHi troyvdh. I didnt ask for bank account details and I didnt try to piss him off so I cant answer those questions. I can tell you I expected to like him and I wasnt disappointed. If you live in or near Auckland come to one of the ST meetings. They are pretty much just an excuse to go to the pub anyway :D

as a side note and often the case in a printed medium. A lot here dont get his sense of humour :rolleyes:
He wouldnt be the only one on this site misunderstood in this way either.

[STRAT]

Sorry Macca,I feel like Im talking about you behind your back here but I guess you will read this some time.

[Crypto Crude]

Phaedrus-I am NOT picking on FA. I am bagging averaging down. Illustrating the need for Stop-Losses. Showing what happens when you add to losing positions. Demonstrating the need for exit strategies. Portraying what happens to those that choose to ignore market sentiment.


Phaedrus,
I didnt average down on CUE... I never averaged down on WCUO even though I was told to... looking back, I have not done this.... stop losses-It was good I didnt have a stop loss with CUE, because I probably wouldnt have gotten back in;)...exit strategies-my exit strategy is realisation of the fundamentals I saw... market sentiment- well.......:D.......if its worth 40c and the market crashes, then its worth my buy in price...:D....
look mate.... I like what you do, but when you come here posting that stuff, I take it as a challenge on FA.... Because you are not addressing posters in particular, I take that as a personal challenge on me...
I told you the same thing awhile back...
by not addressing individuals you are generalisating all Fundamental analysts into one group, and I refuse to be grouped into something I dont know what im being grouped into...(refer early Phaedrus post)...
name the stock, and name the posters... its not fair on the rest of us...
do one of me if you can.... please....

im sweaky clean.... im not perfect...
I stuffed up investing in resource stocks, (investing in things I didnt know much about)...
I bought into CTP when wise heads said no...
I wanted to gamble on two wildcats... I hate losing money even on a gamble...


You carry the seeds of your own destruction, Shrewdy. You claim "I personally don't make mistakes when I go in large". That is your Achilles heel, right there. Hubris. You cannot conceive of ever getting it wrong, so you see no need to have a plan in place to handle that possibility.

In 6 years I have been all in 4 times... I said my story only a couple of days ago... I freakin went all in on MEO 20,000 shares one buck ten AUS, and dumped the lot before the crash...
So yeah... I got it wrong... but I got it right....;)
what you mean I didnt have a plan...
read the MEO thread...

and the other 3 times NWE, PPP, CUE,
those positions looked very pretty off that info, and I didnt sell until that info changed, or I was proven right...
I wont go all in until I see another great stock....And Ive already seen it... so im amping for CUE to ramp up quickly so I can move some funds on...
my cheque came today cos Ive been holding offshore funds...
im not getting a hot exchange rate, but im buying BUL next week....


If a stock you have bought goes down, you think it is the market that has got it wrong, not you. THAT is what destroyed the mug-punters featured in the chart. Arrogance, overconfidence and their bull-headed refusal to accept that they had made a mistake. Like you, they thought they were right every time.

Phaedrus,
apart from CUE name me one other time where I said "it is the market that got it wrong"................ and that is the ball game...
please give me examples of what you mean.....
so the DOW crashed to 6500...
I said it was a total overreaction on the NZ market overview and outlook thread... it was a generation blip that I thought I could beat.....
now I know for next time...

Ok... I got smashed...
I lost 50% of my wealth... in 2008 95% of investors Worldwide lost 50% of their wealth... Fact...
yep...
mackdunk didnt lose that... you probably didnt lose that...
but then, I dont know what your doing...

it happened... I was told to dump the lot at the bottom... people said this, and people said that...but I believed in what I believed in....I said that the sharemarket was priced at a depression like state, when the real economy was only in a recession...
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6527
read my posts here... theres also an interesting section (later on) about why the market crashed happened...



They were unwilling or unable to accept even the possibility that they might have got one wrong. So they rode it right to the bottom, trumpeting their "rightness", scoffing at the market, TA, fund managers etc the whole way down.
Shrewdy, those mugs didn't lose all that money because they used FA. They lost big-time because they were overconfident and had no exit strategy, no contingency plan.

well... I probably scoffed all the way down too...
I dont know which stock you are posting about, but the CUE story was, and always was just like I said...

Maari/manaia is the current value of company...
Manaia is an appraisal well drilling right now and I like it...
I very very rarely make calls on exploration/appraisal wells before they come in...
and,
a portfolio of rippers (bigger than Maari, all for free)...
PNG- PNG LNG.COM, Barikewa, Kimu, Cobra discovery, SE Gobe
Timor Sea- Cash Maple 120 BCF 2P...
WA- 5 permits... Zeus 80CPS failed... Artemis (just as big coming soon)
Bass Basin... spikey beach free carry spudding in weeks, offers 10CPS upside...
NZ taranaki.... Maari, Manaia, Matariki...
Indonesia... Oyong, Sampang, Wortel, Jeruk doesnt matter

Strat,
I have said many nice things about Mackdunk in the Past...
all that stuff still stands...
I dont kiss arrssseee, so I wont repeat it....;)

a few months ago posters came here angry at the company, angry at all sorts of things...
JDG sold out which was sad, because that cat held on all the way and missed a hurdle at the end...stumbled.... fell...
and I hope he gets back up,
I hope he gets into CSG and becomes a Texas oil man, straight out of south Eastern Asia...
we Have Texas next door...
dont miss this one...
im in next week
:cool:
.^sc

[seaosh]

It aint TA or FA. Its street smarts and good perception of the big and bigger picture.

Isn't 'Scottish cunning' the technical term for that?

[STRAT]

but when you come here posting that stuff, I take it as a challenge on FA.... Because you are not addressing posters in particular, I take that as a personal challenge on me...
:cool:
.^scthen I think you missed the point Shrewdy

twice

[Crypto Crude]

Please go on...
;)
.^sc

[JBmurc]

A good balance of both T/A an F/A is needed IMHO if your a trader even more so..

If your a long term investor F/A is by far more important , yeah with the likes of CUE why the hell not average down if the F/A screams great buy @15c etc-- buy
just make sure your've put alot of effort in the F/A cause it will cost you if you don't

As me misses says balance is the key

[Phaedrus]

It was good I didnt have a stop-loss with CUE You reckon? Let me show you how they work using your actual CUE entries. The charts should be self-explanatory.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/CUE2.gif

Shrewdy, at one point there you were down well over 50% on your entries. Even now, over a year later, both positions are still underwater. The addition of some simple TA or the use of a stop-loss would have seen you in a very different financial situation.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/CUE3.gif


when you come here posting that stuff, I take it as a challenge on FA.... Why do you do that? All I have done is try to come up with a set of useful rules that would have helped the poor sods featured in that unfortunate chart. Rules like :-
(1) Never buy a stock in a downtrend.
(2) Never add to a losing position.
(3) Never let small losses become big losses.
Why do you see the discussion of such issues as a challenge to FA? The best, most competent posters here on ST have no difficulty whatsoever reconciling the 2 approaches. People like Winner69, Hoop, Lizard, Warthog, Halebop and Footsie don't waste time on the TA vs FA argument. They use both.


Because you are not addressing posters in particular, I take that as a personal challenge on me...There is a word for that Shrewdy. Paranoia. What is the point of me identifying the punters that featured in that chart? Surely the poor sods have suffered enough? Why on earth should you take something meant as a general discussion topic as a "personal challenge"?


my exit strategy is realisation of the fundamentals I sawThat sounds more like an idea than a strategy to me.


I got smashed...I lost 50% of my wealth... Shrewdy, if you had had an effective exit strategy in place, that wouldn't have happened. I got smashed in the '87 crash and resolved to monitor market sentiment much more closely with a view to avoiding losses of such a crippling magnitude. I learnt. You should too!

[Crypto Crude]

Phaedrus,
With a stop loss, I probably wouldnt have bought back into CUE, I would have sold and bought something else that many have quite likely lost me more than what ive lost now over the last year...

It was a market thing, not company specific...
I can deal with that...
I hate losing money... I dont mind losing some time...
The market crash that ensued, well...
what can I say...

I am very happy...
You are right,
I will never get into a TA, FA debate again...
I do know how important TA is...
I have nothing to be paranoid about...
I like your work...
have a great week...
Yeeahhhhhh hharrggghhhh....
:cool:
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

Please go on...
;)
.^sc SHREWDY, When you stick up what you do when you do it, like you and I do, it opens it up to people to jump in with the alternative opinion. Nothing wrong with fundamental analysis selecting companies you see as safe investments. What is wrong is getting the idea that the market sees it in a similar fashion.
If you, are like most of us mere mortals you will either time your entry wrong, as you have done with CUE, or the bottom falls out the market making an exit strategy an extremely wise move. I suggest that you will have a one bad to three good average which if you work it right you will lose a one dollar loss from a four dollar gain. Its really very simple dont waste to much time on companies study the market trend . Macdunk

[bigminty]

This is getting a bit off the topic(CUE thread )but an interesting perspective given the above discussion(pinched from another thread!)Quality v Quantity?

"Researching stocks takes a lot of time and it prevents me from doing other things."

I agree - researching stocks is time consuming.
But there's a simple solution to your problem.....don't do any research. There's no need to - tens of thousands of traders and investors have already done the research for you, and their findings are reflected in the trend of the stock.

AMP fell from $13 to $3 between March 2002 and August 2003. Shortly after it's downtrend began it was patently obvious, even to someone of little experience in chart reading, that the stock was heading south east on the chart.......a downtrend.
Why was it downtrending? Because traders and investors were quitting the stock en masse.
Why would they do that? Because tens of thousands of them had researched the company and found out that it was in trouble, and it's future prospects were none too bright.
In which case, you could have made money from the AMP downtrend by selling the stock short, or buying put options.
Or if you owned the stock, you could have bailed out long before it's value was decimated.
The point is that you could have got quite an accurate summary of the fundamentals of AMP without spending one minute of your time doing fundamental research. Just look at the chart.....all the information you needed was graphically displayed for you.

Look at the current price action of AMP. Nice uptrend in place, particularly when viewed on the weekly chart.
Why is it uptrending? Because tens of thousands of investors, having done their research, have formed the opinion that the stock has good fundamentals. No need for you to research AMP to profit from it - the research has already been done for you. If an uptrending stock shows temporary weakness by pulling back for a few days as profit takers bail out,
and then the uptrend resumes as buyers come back in, it presents you with an ideal opportunity to hitch a ride on the trend and make some money.

The same sort of simple analysis and trading strategy can be applied to any liquid stock that starts uptrending or downtrending strongly.
WPL is a good example.....uptrend began in early 2003. Three years later, the stock is more than four times it's 2003 value.
Once you saw WPL heading steadily north east on the chart, making higher peaks and higher troughs, did you really need to spend hours or days of your time doing fundamental research on it?
Thousands of investors had already researched it for you and their findings were very positive, otherwise why would they be piling into the stock and pushing it higher week after week?

A common fallacy among stock market players is that if you want to profit from the market, you have to read the financial papers, company reports, brokers newsletters etc to keep yourself up to date with the latest developments in the economy and within individual companies.
Its simply not correct.....I've been trading the markets for 10 years or so and for the last eight of those years I haven't read a financial publication, a brokers newsletter or a company report.
The most reliable information is in the charts. Learn how to interpret them, learn how to identify trends, learn how to recognise retracements, watch for the trend to resume following the retracement.
You won't need to spend your time doing boring company research, and you won't need to hand your hard earned money over to Fat Profits either.

If you want some good books on how to identify trends and how to hitch a ride on them, I'd suggest.....

"Dave Landry On Swing Trading" by Dave Landry

"Secrets For Profiting In Bull And Bear Markets" by Stan Weinstein

The trading methods expoused by both these men are simple to learn, easy to implement, and require very little time input from the trader or investor.


Cheers Bminty

[JBmurc]

RELEASE
Spikey Beach -1 Update
T/38P – Bass Basin
Beach Petroleum Limited, the operator for a designated area of interest within permit
T/38P, and the Spikey Beach-1 well reported yesterday (26/08/2009) that:
“It is expected that the Ocean Patriot semi-submersible drilling rig will be assigned to
Beach Petroleum for the drilling of the Spikey Beach-1 exploration well (Beach earning
80%) in T/38P in the Bass Basin offshore Tasmania on or around the 30th August.
Spikey Beach-1 will be addressing mean recoverable oil of 16 million barrels and a
high side of 41 million barrels (recoverable) of oil in the Upper Eastern View Group”.
The participants in Spikey Beach-1 well are:
Beach Petroleum Limited (operator) 80%
Galveston Mining (100% Cue Energy Resources Subsidiary) 10%
Exoil Ltd 10%
Any queries regarding the announcement should be directed to the Company on
(03) 9670 8668 or email mail@cuenrg.com.au.

[ELYOB]

Good being with Beach , who have the 80%***......and need reserve build . This will get developed quickly if successful ....



*** Spikey Beach-1


CUE has 10% ; EXOIL has 10%

[Crypto Crude]

ELYOB,
what does that stand for?
I agree..butt not the dummies here... the market, mate...
We all lost, but on the rebound this was it...
and CUE took longer than them all...
The most special oiler on the ASX ive ever seen...
I meant it when I put up that avatar a year ago with 45c...
the Economy has changed, and this looked better and better, even at $40 US oil...
I will look back and realise I was too conservative with 45c...
On PNG alone...
This will go to one dollar in time...

30c in 5 weeks...
THATS the call...
chartists... plot that on your chart and book it...

Today CUE made an announcement on Spikey Beach...
Here are my thoughts that I posted on HC...


Peter Strachan valued Spikey Beach discovery at 10c per CUE share. Hes pretty good at oil analysis, but he did say these words.... 'avoid' , 'sell' about BUY when it was 2c.........
Spikey could be worth abit more than 10c depending on oil prices, and high side size of discovery... Spikey has a Chance of Success of 17%, in CUE's presentation...
which is in a small box in many of their presentations...
17% Chance of discovery is higher than a usual exploration well in the region, so... Beach have a good feeling about this...
and higher than historical Worldwide average of around 10%...
our joint venture partners.....STO, OSH, OMV, Todds, Beach yeah... good old Beach.... last year MEO didnt even get a mention on that list... if you let the next oiler slide in it would be HZN.....what about SPC who got taken over?
China has come in the back door!!!...
WTF about MEO.......

As for development, if we hit a Spikey one... a mini 'oh daddy', there is under utilised processing plant nearby, including major pipelines nearby...
we could hit a mini Maari with twice the stake...
so yeah this could be big for us...
and its free...
thats how we roll... straight to the bank on this.....

pity The Todds made us sign a deal to pay 150% of drilling costs for our level of stake in Matariki...
but then again, I think we were lucky to get such a chance given the seismics, drill ready status, and Maari right next door targeting same prolific sandstones...
I have some good info on that...

but now its Artemis...next topic,
OSH reckons its time to further develop PNG...
Read their presentations...
Barikewa, Kimu mentioned...
and then Indonesia, Oyong production 1000 BOE/D, in a month, or whatever... 50MMCF per day *.15 ... this is very big...
we have 15% of it..
Long term contract gas price...
Then Manaia coming up...
throw BESBS out the window...
then M2A...
and spikey announcement today...
Maari really performing... 40,000 BOPD...
GREAT oil prices...
multiple shipments in next quarter...
CUE is BOPD rich and able to start retiring debt...

alot is on...
too much happening to really sit down and have a good look at Spikey Beach...
Beach have taken care of that...
buy.... hold.... dont sell CUE for another 2 months...

im doing it for Manaia alone,
all the other stuff is a bonus to me...
Ive got some numbers coming on PNG, but id also like to post some stuff on Matariki...
This is the one to be excited about...

New Zealand Oil industry has more Potential for oil than Australia... thats because we have the Great South Basin...
I will tell the story on another thread..

if we hit at Matariki we get 4 FPSO's...
hehehehehehe... just joking...
:cool:
.^sc

[ELYOB]

SC , just quietly , if Spikey Beach doesnt come in , it will really shake the Beach , could send the price down to 70's . These offshore dusters are mounting on BPT cash burn . I hold BPT and is my worst stock atm through the GFC. Now BPT has 3 shots in the arm coming up in SEPTOCT09 but Spikey will hurt if it aint there ...

CUE is nice though , along with HZN . HZN has PNG . Spikey wont hurt CUE , but very positive if the fuel is there .

Good luck , as you know I am very large holder in both cuehzn

[Jay]

"ELYOB,
what does that stand for?"

It's Susan Boyle in disguise!!

Hope you guys are right, the portfolio could do with a bit of a boost!

Only holding Cue - not HZN

[trackers]

Geoff Albers retires... Good thing or bad?

Looking more and more like a Todd subsidiary every day! Oh well

[Crypto Crude]

Bad,
Geoff Albers spent 28 years on CUE to get it to the company it is today...
As the Founding Director, this is a big loss for us all... We lose him when CUE is on the brink of a new phase of growth that CUE has not seen before...
Cash and BOPD rich...

he got it all for us...
Maari was bought for less than $2 US per barrel...
and importantly, picked up some beautiful PNG assets (that werent easy to get)...

He left CUE at the top of the game, the best way to go out...
one would feel that this has only just got going...
Thank you Geoff Albers...
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

I just put up a lengthy post on HC about a valuation for our PNG assets, and based on inground resource, we could get a deal for $30million (based on the HZN P3GE deal)...
When Kimu, Barikewa go into production stage, I reckon these two projects could be worth $250 million dollars to us...
It is quickly coming time for the market to realise that our PNG assets are worth big money in the future and that at least some premium must be attached for that...We will ride on the coat tails of PNG LNG and OSH, and for some sort of realisation to happen... The sooner, the better...

and happen all for free because theres no way the market is even putting $10m worth on the market cap for our PNG assets...
This is 'CSG' sort of leverage...
read what I said on HC...
:cool:
.^sc

[spike]

I just put up a lengthy post on HC about a valuation for our PNG assets, and based on inground resource, we could get a deal for $30million (based on the HZN P3GE deal)...
When Kimu, Barikewa go into production stage, I reckon these two projects could be worth $250 million dollars to us...
It is quickly coming time for the market to realise that our PNG assets are worth big money in the future and that at least some premium must be attached for that...We will ride on the coat tails of PNG LNG and OSH, and for some sort of realisation to happen... The sooner, the better...

and happen all for free because theres no way the market is even putting $10m worth on the market cap for our PNG assets...
This is 'CSG' sort of leverage...
read what I said on HC...
:cool:
.^sc

What is HC

[Jay]

What is HC


Hot Cooper - another share forum - read and beware

[geezy]

cue pls weaken so i can add more :P

[brettdale]

Hot Cooper - another share forum - read and beware

The general stock forum on hotcopper is full of rampers, they never get it right.

But the daytrading forum there is pretty much spot on.

The poster who calls themselves IPod is excellent IMHO with his picks.

[sharer]

The general stock forum on hotcopper is full of rampers, they never get it right.

But the daytrading forum there is pretty much spot on.

The poster who calls themselves IPod is excellent IMHO with his picks.

What's the HC url?

[trackers]

Well, CUE floundering around on rubbish volumes today... Thin sell side..

Sharer, the URL is the first url you see when you type "Hotcopper" into Google! hotcopper.com.au unsurprisingly :D

[STRAT]

What's the HC url?Best wear protective clothing in there mate :D

[JBmurc]

looks like my top-up in CUE at 21c was a smart move announcement out now-

WA-360-P Farm-out Progress Report
Key Points:
• Timeframe for submission of indicative offers has now closed
• Process to complete binding transaction by 30th September remains on track
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA (September 1st, 2009) - MEO advises that the period in
which to submit indicative offers to farm-in to the Company’s WA-360-P permit has now
closed. Indicative offers are being evaluated ahead of entering into further negotiations aimed
at reaching a binding agreement. The Company remains on track to complete a farm-in
transaction by 30th September as previously advised.

More than happy with my 210,000 cue av 16.5c

[trackers]

Ocean Patriot on the way... Spikey beach to spud within a week.



RELEASE

Spikey Beach -1 Update
T/38P – Bass Basin


Beach Petroleum Limited, the operator for a designated area of interest within permit T/38P, and
the Spikey Beach-1 well, reported today (03/09/2009) that:

“The Ocean Patriot semi-submersible drilling rig is expected to be released to Beach for the
drilling of the Spikey Beach-1 exploration well in T/38P, in the Bass Basin offshore Tasmania
later today. Beach is the operator for the well and will be earning 80% in the Spikey Beach
farmout blocks through the drilling of the well. Spikey Beach-1 will be targeting mean
recoverable oil of 16 million barrels and a high side of 41 million barrels (recoverable) of oil in
the Upper Eastern View Group. The well is expected to spud early next week, dependent upon
weather conditions.

The participants in Spikey Beach-1 well are:

Beach Petroleum Limited (operator) 80%
Galveston Mining (100% Cue Energy Resources Subsidiary) 10%
Exoil Ltd 10%

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CUE&E=ASX&N=323352

Anyone have an idea of how long this is expected to take to drill?

[trackers]

Drilling report out. Hydrocarbons present in Manaia..

[shawsie]

fellow CUE holders

gotta be happy with todays close, but also the shape of trading today, does appear to have taken out some of the pesky seller pre 25.

HC reporting as upside breakout from established penant, so IMO technicals and fundamentals should have this as undervalue, wonder where this could go?

The lump at 25 has been there for some time, prob profit takers on 15c issue, primed to go for a trot noth of there.

did anyone else notice on the final directors announcement today that Octanex has increased holding from 30m (see August top 20 list) to 43m?

Mr Albers shareholder and director of that vehicle.

[da puntzda]

good spot Shawsie on the (ex) director holding - got to be a good sign

[geezy]

CUE's not falling so i can buy but instead its going up.. time to wave good bye to the early 20's cents?

this baby dont seem to be affected by the impending correction from the markets.

[shawsie]

geezy, yes would be good to see an end to range trading as Maari + cash kind of makes a run lower pretty much untenable.

64% of ordinary stock tied up in top 20 holders, which runs down to a paltry 2.6m shares, so liquidity will be an obstacle.

Impending correction? we are reading different tea leaves. get outta debt stricken and sectorally dodgy for sure (finance for appartments anyone), but we are not at POO 140, that cannot fall, and last time I looked, China was still producing (and polluting) up a storm.

[Huang Chung]

[quote=geezy;272512]CUE's not falling so i can buy but instead its going up.. quote]

I think Phaedrus would say that you buy when the share price is going up, not falling.....

[trackers]

- Spikey beach spud... or about to

- Manaia drilled, hydrocarbons confirmed.

- M2A to follow Manaia

- Artemis farm-in on track to be completed by 30Sept (3 weeks)

- Oyong gas (1000Boe to CUE) before the end of Q3 (3 weeks!)


The sp is heading in the direction it should!

[Crypto Crude]

hey Trackers...
this is worth 40cents alright...
when I got in before the market crash I thought it was worth that... since then its only got better, and derisked a whole lot...
CUE is good for a trade...
I never (very rarely) make pre well predictions...
and I must admit that ive been going on and on about Manaia...
In oil, this is as good as it gets...
;)
.^sc

[da puntzda]

SC

what are the timelines for Manaia? - do you know when we could expect an announcement - a little more conclusive than "signs of hydrocarbons"?

Appreciate your response and persistance in highlighting the merits of the stock.

disc holder

[da puntzda]

Also SC

MacDunk has gone rather quite on this thread! seems to be an inverse relationship between his posts and the sp!

[geezy]

[quote=geezy;272512]CUE's not falling so i can buy but instead its going up.. quote]

I think Phaedrus would say that you buy when the share price is going up, not falling.....

yeah i think thats quite right too :)

[STRAT]

Nice finish today yall. CUE hasnt seen a close this high since May 08. Shrewdy, Im gettin excited here lol :D

and almost a bagger

[trackers]

Yip, loving it... CUE's value coming forth.

A bit disappointed that my extra purchase at 23.5c didn't come through today, I was the highest buyer for a couple of hours........ oh well, still hold heaps :) Between this and BUL it has been an excellent day!

[spike]

so at what point should I buy CUE Strat?

AA

Yesterday! and any day before even better.

[geezy]

theres no stopping the cue train now!

[ScrappyO]

Anybody have any idea how long it will take to drill the 1000m horizontal at Manaia.

cheers

[trackers]

Anybody have any idea how long it will take to drill the 1000m horizontal at Manaia.

cheers

Not sure...Good question though.

Its been 40 days since drilling commenced and is expected to take 45 days...so any day now? Unless the result is already known :)

[Crypto Crude]

good answer trackers...
...
just sit back and relax...
set that lazy boy to horizontal
If your not selling then it takes as long as it takes...
;)
.^sc

[ELYOB]

Looks like a month away . So , just relax and accumulate .

[STRAT]

theres no stopping the cue train now!Looked more like the West Aucland rush hour Passenger Train than the Silver Bullet today :p

[Financially dependant]

Classic 'bobn' play coming up....

The chances of a failure at Spikey beach are greater then a success! So sell out now and buy back in on the bad news. With so much activity coming up the down side is very well protected ;).

Disclosure: Holding through

[JBmurc]

Classic 'bobn' play coming up....

The chances of a failure at Spikey beach are greater then a success! So sell out now and buy back in on the bad news. With so much activity coming up the down side is very well protected ;).

Disclosure: Holding through

Yes am thinking bout that myself even if I just sell half my holding

[shawsie]

My view on the strategy to take around the Spikey beach announcement has more to do with market sentiment.

the current bull run on dow and poo should ensure that disappointment on a duster (72% chance) is mute but glee over a gusher (32%) is giddy.

I'm stayiing in. dont think it will dip dramatically if dusty, no great buying opportunity.

+ as shrewdy points out so well and so often, cue has its fingers in enough pies, and has a good enough revenue stream, that dusting occassionally should be priced in.

compare cue's postion to nog, tui on its way out, and no big new drills planned, and i cant see pike or ppp riding over the horiaon in shiny mail.

[evilroyrule]

if we are talking about the drill off south taranaki coast dont you think those odds should be a little shorter?>

pretty rich area given TUI under estimated the reserves by approx 30 million barrels and is flaring so much gas they have almost exceeded permitted levels, to quote the paper "the fact the Tui owners are already approaching the flaring limits dramatically underlines how successful the offshore field has been".

projected revenue of US 750 million now 2.1 billion. four new wells next year, 3 of which is extension of Tui field. Ill be holding through but if you manage to push SP down ill be in for more!

[Xerof]

Shawsie said

tui on its way out, and no big new drills planned

Bollocks

at least 5 new wells coming up, Albacore, Hoki, and at least 2 around Tui, PLUS Kupe about to come on stream, PLUS an interest in PPPV, PLUS Pike (allegedly) about to come on stream

[shawsie]

evilroy, apparently the gelogoical chance of success, whatever that is, of spikey beach is n32% and no its not tui

xerof, strong language mate, none of those drills are close enough for my liking, producing wells are in decline and oilers without oil are just plain, well, ''ers'.

and pike? give me a break

nog, im a holder, been good to me in the past, now, they arent big enough to take over ppp, and have to prop up pike. im out after div, suggest you take a fresh look

[evilroyrule]

thanks shawsie. i was hoping we drilling in same area as tui. 32% still better than my lotto odds!

[trackers]

Spikey Beach is a duster.


sp surprisingly unaffected (which I would have picked, but not on a day like today with red everywhere)

[Financially dependant]

Spikey Beach is a duster.


sp surprisingly unaffected (which I would have picked, but not on a day like today with red everywhere)

agreed trackers...it looks like resistance has turned to support at 24c...good time to top up as it is looking like up from here.....;)

[geezy]

topped up at the wrong time of 25/26. but maybe just the right time to add a wee bit more ? :)

[STRAT]

Isnt there like some sort of correlation between a stock going down and how many times the words "topped up" are used in any one thread? :eek:

Im sure these words feature in some of Phaedrus' time line vs post charts.

Cut it out eh, before yall put a hex on CUE :D

[The Big Ease]

it's true strat.
It's that time of the year to get out the "santa will be coming early this year" line.

[geezy]

oh strat didnt mean to spoil ur party

[Financially dependant]

Isnt there like some sort of correlation between a stock going down and how many times the words "topped up" are used in any one thread? :eek:

Im sure these words feature in some of Phaedrus' time line vs post charts.

Cut it out eh, before yall put a hex on CUE :D

It is also called buying in the dips in a up trending stock strat......I would have thought you would be on to that one? :rolleyes:

[STRAT]

It is also called buying in the dips in a up trending stock strat......I would have thought you would be on to that one? :rolleyes:Haha FD, I dont do that. Sooner or later one of those dips turns out to be the beginning of a down hill run. :D

Other wording to watch out for is any thing to do with cloudless days, trains and as TBE points out anything to do with Xmas :p

[STRAT]

oh strat didnt mean to spoil ur partyThats right Geezy, Im at this train party too on this lovely blue sky day as we steam ahead to an early Xmas. toot toot :D

[geezy]

Thats right Geezy, Im at this train party too on this lovely blue sky day as we steam ahead to an early Xmas. toot toot :D

must be a happy man lookin at things today :)

[STRAT]

must be a happy man lookin at things today :)Almost a bagger geezy so no complaints here but with Spikey Beach being a dry hole Im not expecting a great market responce today :(

[trackers]

Almost a bagger geezy so no complaints here but with Spikey Beach being a dry hole Im not expecting a great market responce today :(

Well since it was announced the day before yesterday I would hope the impact has already been factored in....:confused: Sp dropped to 24c and has recovered to 26c..

Onwards and upwards with manaia, m2a and oyong

[gazprom1]

I think that Strat was looking at the BPT Weekly Drilling update that came out late yesterday despite the news on Spikey Beach coming out on the 14th. Probably a cunning ploy by Strat to pick up some more cheap shares....

[Junior80]

Slow and steady rise. Good to see. Someone is accumulating? I hope so, coz then we'll all be happy.

Shrewd, you will be happy to see this slowly inching up. :) Keep it going I say.

[Crypto Crude]

hey junior,
no reason for me to sell yet... all the good stuff is still yet to come....
30c...
its not if, its when...
:cool:
.^sc

[Junior80]

I hope you are right. I only hold a small amount, but would still like to see this get to 30c.

Disc: Hold av 22.5c

[Crypto Crude]

good buy price junior...
just got to be abit more patient for another 2 months max...

Oyong gas production...
M2A producer...
Manaia appraisal...
Artemis, with MEO deadline coming up...
undervalued fundamentals...

worth 40c without Artemis...
:cool:
.^sc

[evilroyrule]

hey sc

did you read the HZN presentation today? id be interested to see what you make of it, but in my opinion still undervalued at 28cps. mind you ive always been a sucker for those glossy pages. I picked up mine at around 18, but with all the good news still come seems to me this is just getting warm.

please note did not use the word "topping up" when discussing SP!

[STRAT]

please note did not use the word "topping up" when discussing SP!Good on ya mate ;)

[Crypto Crude]

evilroyrule-hey sc

did you read the HZN presentation today? id be interested to see what you make of it, but in my opinion still undervalued at 28cps. mind you ive always been a sucker for those glossy pages. I picked up mine at around 18, but with all the good news still come seems to me this is just getting warm.

hey Roy,
I have looked at the HZN presentation...
Forget about Horizon for a second, look into NGE right now..
it has 6 onshore permits PNG 100%...
It has the making of something very big BUY...
I have been telling you about PNG for quite some time now...
These types of stocks, CUE HZN, NGE, MOS
and much lower down BUL...
These are in as good if not better than some of the junior CSG stocks, and the Queensland Gladstone story...
PNG LNG...
get excited now...
NGE Fell 16% on Friday and touched a low of 21.5c...
ive got cue, might just put in a greedy buy order...
both are a BUY...
:cool:
.^sc

[Corporate]

hey Roy,
I have looked at the HZN presentation...
Forget about Horizon for a second, look into NGE right now..
it has 6 onshore permits PNG 100%...
It has the making of something very big BUY...
I have been telling you about PNG for quite some time now...
These types of stocks, CUE HZN, NGE, MOS
and much lower down BUL...
These are in as good if not better than some of the junior CSG stocks, and the Queensland Gladstone story...
PNG LNG...
get excited now...
NGE Fell 16% on Friday and touched a low of 21.5c...
ive got cue, might just put in a greedy buy order...
both are a BUY...
:cool:
.^sc

Hey SC, what are you reasons for being so excited about PNG LNG?

[shasta]

Hey SC, what are you reasons for being so excited about PNG LNG?

Corporate

Easiest way to explain is read the latest OSH (Oil Search) presentation.

They are seriously into PNG. ;)

Medium sovereign risk to my mind, but alot gas up that way!

[evilroyrule]

whats up here today? on an otherwise reddish day, cue up 10% already? any clues peoples?

[upside_umop]

Just playing a bit of catch up on HZN and MEO.

They have both run hard and for different reasons but CUE has relatively similar exposure to both those companies.

[evilroyrule]

cool thanks.

[evilroyrule]

shrewdy where are you? looks like your time to shine!

[ELYOB]

When certain people in the market rcond this stock has run hard , I disagree. It fell a long way with the GFC , remember it was 25c at the beginning. So , it has done a lot of development since and not much has been credited to the share price . It is blazing away , and trying everthing possible on the patch and success is about to dawn . No this hasnt run anywhere as yet. In the next 4 weeks it will have plenty more oil & gas to run with .....do the research. Shrude Crude has worn himself out explaining to all , and much of what he has analysed is looking good . Refer Mr Strachan's Stockanalysis issues also helpful .

Hold 1m Cue

dyor

[gazprom1]

ELYOB,

Agree that potentially it has a lot further to run and I hope that it does but it has run reasonably hard since breaking out that 15 cent trading range to close at 28 cents yesterday. Those holders that got in around that mark should be very pleased to date with more "gas" in the tank to run further.

Discl hold: CUE, HZN, VPE, VPEO, TSV

[STRAT]

Hi fellas
Run hard or not the chart looks good. Closing on the days high yesterday and breaking through that 26.5 mark is significant.

I re entered CUE just after the down trend line was broken in May as volume increased and have held since. Shortly after it fell into the 15c trading range Gazprom refers to which seemed to go on for ever :rolleyes:. Almost got out. Glad I didnt. The long term chart below shows CUE ( blue ), IPE Brent ( green ) and the ASX ( red ). The last two should be on every ASX Oiler chart.

CUE is looking better than ever

[Crypto Crude]

Corporate-Hey SC, what are you reasons for being so excited about PNG LNG?


hey corporate,

read this..


Papua New Guinea (PNG), with its largely tribal society, dense rain forests, and rugged mountain terrain, tucked away just north of the booming resource production of Southeast Asia and Australia, seemed absolutely worthless. With nearly 50 TCF of land-locked gas ready for production, gas resources cast off as “uneconomical,” are set to become wildly profitable and the making of billions of dollars will begin.
Papua New Guinea is loaded with gas. But if you can’t move it, you can’t produce it, and if you can’t produce it, you can’t sell it, so it’s absolutely worthless. But not for much longer….
China National Oil Company (CNOC), Exxon, Merrill Lynch and Interoil have now declared they will be building the $30B key to unlock PNG’s reserves. They’re building Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminals. The 50 TCF of “worthless”gas in PNG isn’t going to be worthless anymore.


PNG has something like 600-700 Million Barrels of oil Equivalent as reserves.... and upwards of 1 billion BOE with exploration upside.....
Any stocks with permits in this region are going to absolutely rip it up as they ride on the developments of Exxon, Oil Search, Santos, EDA oil, Nippon as they derisk the region...
As the market is still writing off PNG permits as stranded, or near worthless this makes a good long term investment in the region as a very profitable ride as the market re-rates these permits/assets over time...
This is why CUE looks so good, and all our 2P PNG reserves are virtually worthless in our accounts... but worth so much in a few years...

NGE, which is a different stage oiler, less advanced at every stage compared to CUE, is shaping up to be a massive long term growth play on the back of PNG LNG developments...
PNG LNG is going to be big...
triple OSH revenues...
double PNG GDP...
:cool:
.^sc

[gazprom1]

Any views on the M2A well? Looks favourable to me - 30 -40 mmbbl in place....should extend the life of the project.

[Financially dependant]

Any views on the M2A well? Looks favourable to me - 30 -40 mmbbl in place....should extend the life of the project.

More oil then they can process....:D

and Manaia to follow....:cool:....how much better can it get?

[Crypto Crude]

gazprom-Any views on the M2A well? Looks favourable to me - 30 -40 mmbbl in place....should extend the life of the project.


hey Gazprom
page 9,
12 million barrels recoverable is what historical data was pointing to for the M2A zone...
reintrepretation of the zone during Maari development drilling has lead to possibly a further upgrade as production will be choked back...
but hey, its all free sorts of activities with such a low market cap in comparison.. market must not be really too fussed at the moment!...
Some people have asked me what I thought about Manaia being cased at 6400m, and then the JV pulling out to drill M2A and suspend operations,when we would have wanted to complete Manaia NOW...

The reason for suspension of manaia was genuine and does not alter the outcome that is most likely to follow, which is the successful producer of Manaia... This speculation caused the share price to fall, and impatient investors initially, and then Spikey failed... and we are up off that...
hold...
Investing in the New Zealand oil and gas industry, on this project (Maari), has been a major success in what always was a giant oil field of at least 50 million barrels recoverable...
This still is the last real opportunity (for awhile) to invest in offshore NZ development leading into production stage for a junior... NZO is all good, but they are at a different stage...

for a junior with 5% of Maari, I think this is big...
why has the market not really taken notice of it?

we have enough production projects (both oyong oil and gas, and SE Gobe oil, and gas to come), with Maari to support a 40cent share...

WA
PNG
Matariki
Timor Sea 2P
all free
market has not valued these things...
The market has gone gangbusters over Artemis...
WOW, totally unexpected...

do you think HZN's upgrade of reserves to 60m 2P was because of M2A producer?
Yes, I think that could have been the case...
Now CUE and Todds might come out and back it up...
I am still saying that the Maari oil field will end up having closer to 100million barrels recoverable than 50 million barrels recoverable...
pointing to the high side in time,;)...
Hold CUE for Matariki, Artemis, what about the Rose Seismics
100% WA-389-P, pursuing farmin parnter in 4th quarter....
and PNG developments down the line (of low risk development/production stage project)... why? We have joint venture partnerships with Oil Search in projects that have proven gas discoveries/reserves/ flow rates/ and big upside through the development/production of 150 BCF our stake.....
:cool:
.^sc

[gazprom1]

SC,

Great post. I thought the market would have taken a little more notice as it was confirming a sizable find that will easily brought online...priced into the SP already?? They had stated that M2A had a potential P50 STOOIP of 43MMSTB.

I bought a few more this morning but buying at these levels as opposed to late teens/ early 20's requires more faith!

[evilroyrule]

CUE is just one of those unloved shares, much like WCL. no doubt it will have its time but market tends not to attribute as much weight to positive announcements as they do with others, HZN for example. I hold both, but HZN seems to be the flavour (at least this month) on the strength of news no more postive than CUE. Might be reflected in Phaddys market sentiment graph!

[bigminty]

Happy Birthday;)

[bermuda]

Happy Birthday;)

Happy Birthday Shrewdy. I am back Monday. Well said Big Minty. On Cue.
Cheers

[drillfix]

A little bit late from me here SC :eek: but Happy B'day to ya there :).

Hope you've had a good one~!

[tobo]

evilroyrule,
(or anyone else with an opinion)
Do unloved shares eventually shake off the shackles, or does a remnent of the stigma remain forever, holding the sp a little lower (once mature) than it could have been if it had been loved from the get-go.

or,
what does it take for that 'market sentiment switch' to be flicked over the the 'flavour-of-the-month' sentiment?

[STRAT]

evilroyrule,
(or anyone else with an opinion)
Do unloved shares eventually shake off the shackles, or does a remnent of the stigma remain forever, holding the sp a little lower (once mature) than it could have been if it had been loved from the get-go.

or,
what does it take for that 'market sentiment switch' to be flicked over the the 'flavour-of-the-month' sentiment?Dont believe in the love/hate thing or at least I would name it something else.
But what ever we decide to call it. it can change in a second. The Market is a fickle lover. :D

[macduffy]

Just a thought but the "loved/unloved" thing depends very much on how a company is presented/promoted, at least until results start to speak for themselves.
I think it's fair to say that neither Todds nor SPC seem to have much interest, or maybe, need, to promote CUE so it's left to media and analysts to do their own work.
Possible also that the Maari/Manaia interest, at only 5%, tends to fall below the radar for a lot of investors.

Just gives an opportunity to those with an interest in the stock to get set at reasonable prices.

Disc: Holding CUE.

[evilroyrule]

thanks macduff, well put.

strat, unloved was a euphemism rather than a new technical expression. i thought it captured the overlooked [insert your own word] status imo of this share, despite SC's best endeavours!

[STRAT]

thanks macduff, well put.

strat, unloved was a euphemism rather than a new technical expression. i thought it captured the overlooked [insert your own word] status imo of this share, despite SC's best endeavours!I realize that Roy. I guess I was just saying in a round about way that the Markets are a lot less emotional ( love, hate, fear and greed ) than people give them credit for.

More like dealing with someone with a knife in hand and demanding your wallet than dealing with a moody girlfriend, boyfriend, husband or wife

[Crypto Crude]

thanks...
what a weekend...

I havent had time to have an indepth look at the Annual Report...
but I did see 27 million dollars of write downs...
When will they learn,
Write ups mate... not write downs...:D

these chumps are writing down whereever they can.... What about writing up?
They have Production properties consolidated at 68 million dollars?
Im going to look into this further, but 68 million seems way low when company will earn more than that next year!

this company is too prudent, uncommunicative with shareholders, not rampant enough about what it has...
I mean come on....
These PNG assets are virtual reserves...

and sitting on ripper assets...Timor sea...
mate.. one day, up from the ground will come a bubbling crude...
a inventory of crude pooring at such velocity that this outfit wont know what to do with it... so what do they do to calm the market?...
more writedowns.... more of the same old...

For some reason, they dont want to expose what CUE really has going on for itself...

in the mean time, as we wait for some of these assets to eventuate into dollar assets, we are given the old 'writedown' tone again...
two years ago it was the same thing....
pity that...
oh well... with mega Maari and diversified production streams with 20 million per year from Gas assets for the long term to come-(oyong gas, Wortel gas) then next years cashflow will be booming esp when we take into account full Maari production when development costs cease, at which time the cashflows will go straight to the bottom line......
heres hoping that CUE put a strong run on the board, because in the next two/three months, when much of the current activities come in, then I want to sell some stock to pursue other means...
im looking at
BUL
NGE
and others...
:cool:
.^sc

[Oiler]

thanks...
what a weekend...

this company is too prudent, uncommunicative with shareholders, not rampant enough about what it has...
I mean come on....
These PNG assets are virtual reserves...

and sitting on ripper assets...Timor sea...

For some reason, they dont want to expose what CUE really has going on for itself...

oh well... with mega Maari and diversified production streams with 20 million per year from Gas assets for the long term to come-(oyong gas, Wortel gas) then next years cashflow will be booming esp when we take into account full Maari production when development costs cease, at which time the cashflows will go straight to the bottom line......
heres hoping that CUE put a strong run on the board, because in the next two/three months, when much of the current activities come in, then I want to sell some stock to pursue other means...
im looking at
BUL
NGE
and others...
:cool:
.^sc

Shrewdy..why are you surprised that CUE is playing down there assets. This is not unique to CUE. Its all about timing the big news to the market .... I have seen it all before, "drill and find oil and gas traces" and the price drops.

Those of us on the inside hear differently only to find at some time later the field is a winner :mad:

I do not know this is the case with CUE but it sounds suspicious.

My CUE shares are staying wth me and if it dips anymore I will be buying.

[digger]

Shrewdy..why are you surprised that CUE is playing down there assets. This is not unique to CUE. Its all about timing the big news to the market .... I have seen it all before, "drill and find oil and gas traces" and the price drops.

Those of us on the inside hear differently only to find at some time later the field is a winner :mad:

I do not know this is the case with CUE but it sounds suspicious.

My CUE shares are staying wth me and if it dips anymore I will be buying.

Oiler good points. It is my thinking exactally. It is not so true with NZO but here with CUE especially so. I noriced this several years before buying into CUE and pointed out that i thing the Todd,s influence is coming through here.Especially the bit where you say and give nothing away.Next to no communation when a little would be very helpful. It did not go down too well.
I reentered CUE after about 7 years away at 15 cents during the recent cash issue. Did this by reading behind the lines and drawing own conclusions.Stick the shares in the bottom drawer and keep them if possible.
Shrewdy ,you do an excellent job of making the rest of us lasy by just reading your informative comments. They have helped me to make my decision to get back into CUE. It would be a bad call to now think you are off chasing something else when the cash flow is finally coming through.

[Crypto Crude]

Digger-It would be a bad call to now think you are off chasing something else when the cash flow is finally coming through.

Hey Digger,
I dont have a problem selling CUE, so long as I outperform it...
This might sound abit silly from the rampant view ive posted on this thread for 2 years, but CUE is only a means to make money, and if I can outperform it for the given level of risk then I will sell it in a heartbeat...
I thought that this was low risk (based on downside protected from future diversified revenue streams, and upside... wow.... this is in the eyes of the beholder)...

looking back, maybe it was a bad call of me personally investing in CUE even though it had low down and big up in theory...
and perhaps I should have taken abit more risk, and looked for a bigger return...
But I did sleep well during those dark days on the market knowing that we fell back on OMV and Todds and Maari... and oil search.... blah blah blah...
There was never any doubt that CUE has/had great, and I mean great assets (like I hadnt seen before), diversified across South East Asia... PNG major upside lower risk appraisal on discovered resources, Indonesia for revenue kick, and of course Maari Manaia, and AUS WA and Bass Basin, and Timor Sea...
but, all this low key market releases, and 'popa slow play' style of management has really slowed down the returns side of things and drawn out what really doesnt need to be drawn out...

Oiler,
I always knew that this was CUE's style...
I guess I thought that Maari would speak for itself,
that oil revenues would change all as the company has progressed into a completely new and more advanced stage of oiler...
and that the new phase of CUEs growth would be captured by the market and it would really take off...
CUE is headed in the right direction, but still a long way to go for this to be properly valued by the market...
fair value is around 40 cents per share and thats without Artemis...
who knows...
I see CUE, and I know this will perform, but then I see some others and think they could easily outperform...
what is a brother to do?
Im itching and near trigger happy on NGE... but I will still wait for a few more days/week and then im buying...
wow... I believe this is a very very good future stock...
Based on the Paupa New Guinea story that is unfolding...
NGE, HZN, CUE, and MOS are going to be big future stories from junior caps...
a good suppliment to have with Coal Seam Gas...
:cool:
.^sc

[STRAT]

Shrewd one.

Timing mate. CUE has gone from 9c to 28c over the last 7 months. Thats around 460% pa. Whats wrong with that return?

Entry price mate,
Dont do the same with NGE ;)

[gazprom1]

Strat,

Who knows where the market is heading but I don't think that NGE with a market cap of $78mln is expensive given recent developments with the Canadians and a drill on the way next quarter in PNG.

Any views?

Gazprom

Discl: hold and buying

[Crypto Crude]

strat-
Shrewd one.

Timing mate. CUE has gone from 9c to 28c over the last 7 months. Thats around 460% pa. Whats wrong with that return?

Entry price mate,
Dont do the same with NGE

strat,
21.6c entry price was a very fair price for CUE before the market crash...
at that time the SP had already pulled back from 28c, so it was a steal...
and the info pointed to upside just on company developments unfolding...
that is why I virtually went all in at 21.6c...

as for NGE...
im trigger happy... but ive got the uzi tucked away for abit longer...
one of these days its going to rain shell casings...
:cool:
.^sc

[upside_umop]

Well, MOG just bought into wa360p from Gascorp joining CUE and MEO.

The price is up today 350%. Thats an annualized rate of 'math error' according to my calculator. Timing strat...all about timing!

From a low of 8 cents, is now trading at 36.5 cents. Not bad.

Artmeis does have value huh? A company worth 6 million is now worth $70 million (as shares were used as payment for WA360p share).

They hold the same as CUE - 15%.

As for the writedowns, they will provide added cashflow...courtesy of the tax reductions.

[Crypto Crude]

hey Upsideumop,
yep, left field announcement thats for sure...
I came in and saw MOG up 350% and then it was too late...

I hadnt seen any COS figures, but the announcement said that MEO reckons the Geological chance of success is 32%...
That is a very good figure...
historical figures are only around 10% chance of success...
but more recently, shot off 3d and anomolies, this is much higher and more so for this region...

so,
there is a one third chance that CUE will go to $1 on the possible success of Artemis... and a two thirds chance that CUE will remain around about where it is...
a one third chance that MEO will go to dollars, and a two thirds chance that MEO will go to 10 CPS...
risky business holding MEO stock...
too risky for me...
:cool:
.^sc

[STRAT]

Shrewd you will get no argument of the fundamental merit of CUE from me. Now, in the past or the future. Im just saying a little TA goes a long way.

You are great at picking them but your yield would be so much better with a little charting. The reasons why it goes up or down dont matter with charting. It just shows what is. Fair price means nothing if the stock goes down and ties up your money for an extended time.

Its better to pay 23c on the way up than 20c on the way down dont you reckon especially if you get to play with that money mean time?

I recently bought ITC. Now that may be a good buy or a bad buy. Time will tell but.......

Its my second take on it and while I was out I spent the money on ATIO and got out of that. From the same cash outlay I have more than 3 times the ITC I started with.

Its not just timing but time spent too.

[STRAT]

Strat,

Who knows where the market is heading but I don't think that NGE with a market cap of $78mln is expensive given recent developments with the Canadians and a drill on the way next quarter in PNG.

Any views?

Gazprom

Discl: hold and buyingI have no idea about fundamentals Gazprom.

Shrewd is your man for an answer to that question on this stock.

I do know this
CUE is in an uptrend and I dont think it should be sold. Yet, but the Markets in general are looking a bit toppy and Oil has been going down since August.

Im only looking for short trades right now.

As to TA advice. Phaedrus is your man and the guys in the FOREX section and AA for short trading IMO.

[STRAT]

. Timing strat...all about timing!
.Yeah Oooomop. Timing is everything :D

360% in a day. ooooh aaaah. WOW. bet it comes down hard too. I sure wouldnt want to be the guy who sold at 8c today and even less they guy who paid 42c :eek:

Im still working on the timing thing too. Its easier to improvise a lead break into two bars than time buying and selling stock. :rolleyes:

[p2r]

I thought the cue report looked solid and it is likely the Sept report 20 Octoberish should show some benefit from Taranaki oil more details on Indonesian gas to come.
Just about worth it's own competition. HZN vx CUE. They started about the same price and one has bolted but can CUE catch up? More exiting than watching raindrops running down the window.

[STRAT]

It will be interesting to see how MOG goes today.
If MOG finds any support at current prices or continues to go up surely there will be some flow on effect into CUE.

If MOG finds support CUE will look cheap.

My guess is MOG wont find that support but its nothing more than a guess.

Thoughts people?

[evilroyrule]

up at start another 45%! poor second cousin cue!

[STRAT]

up at start another 45%! poor second cousin cue!The dust hasnt settled yet Roy.

Lets see how the afternoon session goes

[macduffy]

What, if anything, are we to make of the fact that the Executive Chairman of MOG is Geoff Albers. Yes, the Geoff Albers who resigned as a director of CUE on 28 August.

That WA-360-P (Artemis) is looking better by the day!

;)

[neopoleII]

if MEO walks away from the drill....... which it has to fund fully by its self, MOG and CUE will get a 35% split each of MEO's drill rights and the full cost to boot, MOG and CUE dont seem to have the funds to drill this alone........
seems like 2 tails are trying to wag a desperate dog.

or am i missing something?

[macduffy]

I suppose in that event MOG and CUE would look to farm out a decent chunk of the 70% to someone with deeper pockets.

MOG and CUE might even end up with 15% each again - but that's a few steps ahead at this stage.

;)

[evilroyrule]

better late than never. at the risk of jinxing, giddy up!

[trackers]

OYONG gas online.


Excellent news!


http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CUE&E=ASX&N=325306

[brettdale]

I suppose in that event MOG and CUE would look to farm out a decent chunk of the 70% to someone with deeper pockets.

MOG and CUE might even end up with 15% each again - but that's a few steps ahead at this stage.

;)

I have to keep an eye on cue, looking to invest a bet heavier than I have been.

[p2r]

well that gas won't feature in the sept 1/4 results. Wonder what the cash flow effect is - are there on going costs and how much per week is Oyang gas worth in AU $.

[JMJ1202]

STATE-OWNED oil giant PetroChina has become a major shareholder in Melbourne oil and gas producer Cue Energy Resources through its $US2.2 billion acquisition of Singapore Petroleum.

Singapore Petroleum owned 16.31 per cent of Cue, which has now been transferred to PetroChina in another transaction that will test the Foreign Investment Review Board's policy towards China.

FIRB executive director Patrick Colmer told a recent China investment forum in Sydney that the Australian government preferred foreign stakes in major Australian producers to remain below 15 per cent.

While Cue is not a major producer, the 16.31 per cent stake gives PetroChina an interest in an Australian oil and gas producer above the 15 per cent level the FIRB views as substantial.



There has been no mention from PetroChina or Singapore Petroleum about whether any facet of the deal requires FIRB approval or whether FIRB has been approached.

Cue chief executive Robert Coppin said neither party had mentioned FIRB approval to the company.

"Clearly they have exceeded the 15 per cent level," Mr Coppin said yesterday.

He said Singapore Petroleum exceeded that level on the basis of a recent rights issue.

Cue had not been made aware of what PetroChina intended to do with the stake, he added.

The FIRB spokesman in the Treasury Department could not be contacted yesterday.

As well as its stake in Cue, PetroChina has also acquired Singapore Petroleum's 35 per cent interest in a Bass Strait oil and gas plot operated by Tap Oil.

This is less likely to arouse FIRB concerns, remaining within its stated preference for foreign investors to keep their stake in undeveloped resources below 50 per cent.

PetroChina's stake in Cue is worth $29million at Cue's current share price, which was unchanged at 26c yesterday.

[STRAT]

Anyone else feeling the frustration I am with the CUE SP. It has been a good investment this year but getting some SP action is like trying to get a 17yo dog off the couch.

[evilroyrule]

yep! hard to find a better story but if it wont translate to SP i can find another home for my investment. JB seems to have a lot to say this morning (making up for lost time) maybe he has some thoughts?

[JBmurc]

Anyone else feeling the frustration I am with the CUE SP. It has been a good investment this year but getting some SP action is like trying to get a 17yo dog off the couch.

I'm only frustrated I didn't buy 1mill CUE @ 10c
Current 26c-27c ins't to bad IMHO even though it's still cheap sub 35c
Could well see petrochina buy more

[STRAT]

I'm only frustrated I didn't buy 1mill CUE @ 10c
We all have a few like that JB. :D

[JMJ1202]

PetroChina take over of Singapore Petroleum:

By my calculations if the FIRB rule that petrochina can only hold 15% of CUE this would force them to sell approx 9 million shares (1.31%).

That said, I think this is unlikely, given they allowed Singapore Petroleum to hold 16.31% and CUE is not a major oil producer but, its still a possibility!

Will be interesting to see what happens. Any thoughts???

[macduffy]

Practically a nil chance that the FIRB won't approve this IMO. They are already under some criticism for appearing to adopt a harder line with the Chinese than with other applicants and won't see any reason to make an issue of this minor matter.

[bermuda]

Well done guys. Cue on Cue to go a lot higher. Don't hold but watching with interest.

Petro China...now that is a heavyweight shareholder. Cue has grown another leg.

[trackers]

Well done guys. Cue on Cue to go a lot higher. Don't hold but watching with interest.

Petro China...now that is a heavyweight shareholder. Cue has grown another leg.

Thanks Bermuda, good to have you back. Maybe there should be a Bermuda's shareholder weight indicator? :D


Having a Chinese state-owned heavyweight onboard is impressive indeed. Here's hoping the good news continues, should hear from Manaia pretty soon

[STRAT]

Thanks Bermuda, good to have you back. Maybe there should be a Bermuda's shareholder weight indicator? :D


Having a Chinese state-owned heavyweight onboard is impressive indeed. Here's hoping the good news continues, should hear from Manaia pretty soonHi Trackers and Bermuda

How important is this though? The CUE shares came as extra baggage when they bought Singapore Petroleum.
Does this show genuine interest in CUE or is CUE merely something that came with the package?

[trackers]

Hi Trackers and Bermuda

How important is this though? The CUE shares came as extra baggage when they bought Singapore Petroleum.
Does this show genuine interest in CUE or is CUE merely something that came with the package?

Well I certainly wouldn't think having CUE on the books would have influenced the buying decision much, if at all (they paid 2.2billion for singpet and their CUE holdings are worth ~30mil)...

I'm more interested in PetroChina doing a review of their loot and realising they've got hold of a pearler and want to increase their holding in CUE to 100% :D...

[macduffy]

Well I certainly wouldn't think having CUE on the books would have influenced the buying decision much, if at all (they paid 2.2billion for singpet and their CUE holdings are worth ~30mil)...

I'm more interested in PetroChina doing a review of their loot and realising they've got hold of a pearler and want to increase their holding in CUE to 100% :D...

Let's hope they do see it that way although I have my strong doubts.

Would be a nice outcome though. Todds certainly won't let go of their 25% or so cheaply, not after all this time!

[trackers]

Old, but CUE getting some coverage:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/2939050/Substantial-oil-reserves-found-at-Maari-field

[evilroyrule]

ignore this. all said properly above! apologies. bit excited there. great announcement this morning re maari, second well in close proximity, 50-60 million barrells. of all places it was on teletext, so cant copy and paste here! good news for both HZN and CUE!

[JBmurc]

yep! hard to find a better story but if it wont translate to SP i can find another home for my investment. JB seems to have a lot to say this morning (making up for lost time) maybe he has some thoughts?

Yep CUE of course and as you can see from my threads PEN TRY VWM all still look very good buying atm.

geez abit cold in auckland today looking forward to the brisbane heat

[STRAT]

geez abit cold in auckland today looking forward to the brisbane heatTalk about it. Its been like being in Queenstown the last few days :D

[Huang Chung]

geez abit cold in auckland today looking forward to the brisbane heat

Brisbane Forecast
Forecast for Thursday
Dry. Moderate, gusty SW winds becoming SE in the afternoon, fresh at times along the bayside.

Precis: Dry.
City: Min 12 Max 25
Bayside: Min 11 Max 24

JB...only wrinkle in the weather at the moment are the dust storms that we have been copping of late.

[JBmurc]

Brisbane Forecast
Forecast for Thursday
Dry. Moderate, gusty SW winds becoming SE in the afternoon, fresh at times along the bayside.

Precis: Dry.
City: Min 12 Max 25
Bayside: Min 11 Max 24

JB...only wrinkle in the weather at the moment are the dust storms that we have been copping of late.

Up at Noosa atm time for some crownies an a swim in the pool loving the 25c

[Crypto Crude]

Bingo...
Haven't read the ann yet...
:cool:
.^sc

[evilroyrule]

check out the news coming from CUE and HZN today JB. bloody raining here in taranaki. think of us while you wallow in crown lager!

[COLIN]

check out the news coming from CUE and HZN today JB. bloody raining here in taranaki. think of us while you wallow in crown lager!

Well, its done absolutely nothing for the CUE sp, which I find somewhat puzzling - nay, downright disappointing. Why didn't I buy HZN instead!

[evilroyrule]

i agree colin re the sp, repeated good news just seems to wash over. oh well, guess that means im in for the long haul. i guess in terms of where its come in the last 6 months its not all bad news but i thought we have pushed 30c today.

[Crypto Crude]

Well,
Manaia was our edge over the market, and boi...
nothing much...
just gotta let fundamentals grind away...

60million Barrels 2P Maari...
12million M2A
25million Manaia...
thats 4.35 million barrels our stake...
that alone is not bad for a 170 million market cap...
and then theres everything else...

sit back and relax...lazy boy style...
:cool:
.^sc

[bermuda]

Well,
Manaia was our edge over the market, and boi...
nothing much...
just gotta let fundamentals grind away...

60million Barrels 2P Maari...
12million M2A
25million Manaia...
thats 4.35 million barrels our stake...
that alone is not bad for a 170 million market cap...
and then theres everything else...
sit back and relax...lazy boy style...
:cool:
.^sc

Shrewdy, CUE is going well. Good on you.
Have you seen my lazy boy? I have a 6 inch slab of gib board sitting on the arms so the heat of my laptap wont make me sterile.

Dont forget....Tennis Monday 5.30pm. Bring your 'A' game.

This CSG is driving me crazy. It is going to be MASSIVE.

[geezy]

cue been crabbing sideways for sometime despite oil being up? is it cancelled off by the high riding oz dollar?

[colinm_au]

I think that you can blame the recent price inaction on the 1:4 rights issue at 15c ... Fortunately, the Quarterly report out in the next few days should correct this as the underlift in the previous quarter for both Oyong and Maari finally shows up in the results... Next QTR we can look forward to seeing full Maari production and Oyong Phase 2 so the SP should only get better from here on !

[STRAT]

Notice highest high(early Aug ) to lower high(late sept) for RSI MACD OBV VOL.I well respect posts of Shrewd Crude and investors.My observations from Phaedrus(looking at other posts on other sites ) and Incredible Charts is CUE may be about to trend down(I am no expert).Any thoughts would be appreciated.Colinm.au ,as you say- rights issue?----(may have been better suited to Newbie thread & Phaedrus your time answering posts is greatly appreciatiated).Hi Karlos.
Bit of a worry eh? Actually CUE has been looking weak and heading south for weeks. Broke down through the 3 month trend line about 2 weeks ago.

But its not all bad. Seems to be support at 25c
Resistance around 28c. Worth watching real close if it closes below 25c I reckon. If I had entered above 20c I would probably have sold soon after 29/09 but I entered well below that so am willing to let it wriggle around some more for now.

Phaedrus Im sure will give you an expert opinion later :D

[seaosh]

Am also just a little concerned. . .

So yeah, a close below 0.25 and I reckon I might sell a chunk.

However, I'm still optimistic that it will be onwards and upwards from here. It just doesn't make much sense for the share price to stay so weak even as the good news rolls in - though that rights issue didn't help things I guess.

[STRAT]

Am also just a little concerned. . .

So yeah, a close below 0.25 and I reckon I might sell a chunk.

However, I'm still optimistic that it will be onwards and upwards from here. It just doesn't make much sense for the share price to stay so weak even as the good news rolls in - though that rights issue didn't help things I guess.Hi Seaosh.
One thing Ive learned over the years is not to try and make sense of it. There is always so much we will never see and never know but I assume there will always be people who do know so I try and see them in action through charting. Im still working on that :D
Best not to fight it, just react to it in a timely fashon I reckon. Im still working on that too :D

[colinm_au]

Successful investing takes patience ... Sit back and relax - CUE's soon to be stellar financial performance with Maari and Oyong Phase2 startup will eventually start to drive the SP !

[Phaedrus]

Sitting on the fence can cause a lot of worry (not to mention pain!) Sort yourselves out. Whad-are-ya-eh? Are you a serious, patient, sensible investor, or are you one of those ghastly, loathsome, lazy, frivolous trader scum? Either way, the situation is quite clear. The fly-by-night rabble will already be out of CUE. The chart shows 3 good reasons :-
(1) Trendline break.
(2) Bearish divergence from RSI. (14) (not shown - no room)
(3) OBV Trendline break.

Sensible, patient investors, upright citizens all, will still be holding. The chart shows 3 good reasons :-
(1) RSI (80) is still a Hold.
(2) RMI (60,6) is still a Hold.
(3) Slow Stochastic Oscillator (130) is still a Hold.
For what it's worth, the Trailing Stop has not been hit yet.

Self knowledge, see. Know who you are and many of life's dilemmas disappear.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CUE1016.gif

[STRAT]

Sort yourselves out. Whad-are-ya-eh?

I bit of both I am I think :D

Classic :D

[seaosh]

Thanks for the charts. . .

Think I am also a bit of both. I bought most of my CUE as a long-term investment, but recently I think I'm becoming more of a short-term kind of a guy.

[bermuda]

Sharetrader is indebted to Phaedrus for his ultimate TA knowledge and his ability to explain it. He runs rings around the guys on CNBC.

It would be an ignorant Broker who ddin't tune in to Sharetrader each day and check Phaedrus's posts.

Invaluable. Thanks Phaedrus.

[geezy]

Sharetrader is indebted to Phaedrus for his ultimate TA knowledge and his ability to explain it. He runs rings around the guys on CNBC.

It would be an ignorant Broker who ddin't tune in to Sharetrader each day and check Phaedrus's posts.

Invaluable. Thanks Phaedrus.

yes indeed, where can i learn this kinda stuff?do i have to go for a course or can i read it up somewhere?

thanks in advance!

ps: hold CUE

[Crypto Crude]

Shrewd Crude Report

Hey phaedrus...
that was a passionate post from you...
no fly by nighters heres mate...
as always, waiting on realisation of forseen value......
might take a few years... theres nothing like this sort of portfolio of projects at different stages anywhere in the ASX junior oil market, like this that ive seen before... this might explain why CUE is up 150% this year...
it hasnt run anywhere near to where it should...
There is big returns to be made by investing now, even after such a run of sp... why?

a whole lot of derisking of production stage activities...
...a whole lot of new market info for example making our PNG assets viable... and derisking company specific projects as they mature into more likely development stage projects as time passes...

...
..
.
read this post when you have 10 mins....
CUEs bulk activities have now come through...
Manaia, M2A, Maari full production, Drilling of Spikey, and now Oyong Gas full production... these were the activities that were all coming through that providing a nice info stream to support a higher market price... where to from here now that there are no set announcements to wait for?
well, I said wait two months once all these activities had been completed
for the market to start to realise them, and begin to rate them into the sp...I said this because the market is always slow on pick up...

well, its pretty much the grind of very strong fundamentals, and our tree which has offshooting branches where announcements could come any time, and from any direction... but nothing set in stone...

But, while I continue to wait on these strong fundamentals (mainly cashflow fundamentals)...3500 BOE/PD....
and other fundamentals eg PNG, and WA...
and large inground proven assets of around 300 BCF...
id like to now spend some time going over Matariki and permit PEP-38494..... This permit lies south, and connects to the boundary of PMP 38160 where Maari is situation...
This permit 38494 (Matariki), really holds the key to 2010 in CUE,
amongst other longer term activities that ive gone over before

In the last HZN announcement they made reference to this permit, and said they will "make an announcement concerning this acerage in the near future".. this is due to the fact that Permit PEP 38494 lapsed August 26th
after HZN/CUE pulled away from the commitment of drilling Matariki due to a number of reasons...

1) lower drilling costs in the future, option to delay... which has come about because of the World Drop in demand for oil services/rigs due to crashing oil prices...
2)delay of Maari, as cashflows needed to fund Matariki which
set these juniors back, and unable to fund Matariki...
3)market conditions... industry conditions...

What I saw in Maari, and in Manaia showed very good promise...
this is the basis of me holding through the market crash...
The fact that Oil is now almost certain to have Migrated South through
the Tasman Ridge Millions of years ago (as I have previously talked about)...
that Manaia was always going to be underfilled (25m recoverable) because the field is west of the natural migration pathway only filling some of the structure...
Oil charged fairway from East Maui Sub Basin is the future focus for the Maari partners... and we are right there mate...

Just like Maari, Matariki lies right on top of this migration pathway... great...
...
Looking for further oil discoveries ontrend is the best form of oil exploration investment... Historically explorers in NZ have not followed this common sense rationale...(well, not until recently)...
We can see this evident through drilling North and South of the Great
Maui (NZs biggest gas field ever)...
Theres something more connected through this region, but for now its
unclear in my mind...For us its all about tapping into oil that flowed south through the Tasman Ridge...
and finding suitable targets that have potential traps...
Matariki is the lead candidate...

Matariki structure is generally similar to same shallow structures as Maari, and same reservior targets (moki sands)...

ok... in 2006 The Todds made an acquisition of seismic data, with processing of other data to create digital seismic database resulting in identification of the Tasman Ridge as the regions greatest prospectivity...

On the Matariki seismics we can see areas of distruption caused by gas Chimneys... choo choo...

Can you see the Hazy gas in both Seismic shoots?

The first attachment is the Moki-1 well seismic overview...(maari)
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2588/4018779834_b2532879c2.jpg


http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2707/4018789136_2baa1e15c1.jpg


In the Second Attachment you can see the hazy gas which represents hydrocarbon charge of Matariki
This increases our chance of success of discovery...


http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2617/4018035157_375efe05f5.jpg

In the last attachment I have put a red dot where the proposed Matariki well will lie, and the purple shaded outline represents seismic distruptions caused by gas chimneys which can be seen on the 2nd attachment...

There is a strong oil trend play present here...

With Todds holding a substantial stake in CUE,
Richard Tweedie a non exec director, and Mangaging Director of Todd Energy, I think theres no doubt that we will get this well back on track as we hope to drill this very exciting exploration target next year...
I rarely research exploration licences and give recommendations based on that... as I said, exploration is exploration.... But not this sort of exploration... This has been a very successful find, and made even better by being able to invest in the New Zealand oil and gas industry...
NZO was never my sort of stock, because by the time I found shares, NZO was too large for me to create the sort of leveraged returns I wanted to make...

with the present synergies with Maari production, and The Tweedie factor
I dont think there is any concern of us not getting this well back on track for next year... our connections to big oil, and Maari as the backbone, along with this and that... blah blah blah all through South East Asia, makes this an absolute sitter for big growth...blah blah blah...
As we are growing financially, we can start to take on bigger positions, as Matariki would be 20% stake, for 20 million recoverable (for us)
from Matariki moki upper and lower sands, would see us at $1...
The Maari facilities (around 20-30 KMs north), makes this potential tie in more exciting (in my eyes, than Zeus)...
Matariki is even more exciting, but is supprisingly not an astounishing high risk well, such as other exploration wells...

So, now you can see why I held on through the market crash....
Matariki is more exciting than any Tui exploration well... the target is giant, up to 100 million barrels recoverable based on the same intrepreted
anticline structure as Moki sands in the Maari oil field... hydrocarbon charge, and on migration fairway...
Intrepretation shows Moki sands in Matariki to be double stacks (hence roughly twice the recoverable oil than from the moki Maari sands)...
Double Maari... humm.......
and a secondary target of Kaimiro Strat Trap of a further 116 million
barrels recoverable.. This is very risky secondary target...

The risks of upper moki sands are around 40%, with the lower sands being slightly less... and the Kaimiro target very high risk...

This is a 100 Million barrel target, while looking at Kaimiro as a bonus...

GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF NEW ZEALAND rate Matariki as a high chance of success... So do I....

so in summary.....

Matariki is an exciting exporation well because

1) The structure lies on the Oil Migration Fairway
2) seismics show hydrocarbon charge similar to Maari, hazy gas
3) prospective region
4) synergies with Maari
5)favourable country to invest...
:cool:
.^sc

[evilroyrule]

THANKS SC, good reading. appreciate the time you put in!

[Corporate]

SC - as always great post. Well researched and well explained.

Could you go further into how Mataraki could be tied into the Maari facilities? Wouldn't it be to far away and also OMV are the major owners of Maari.

[Phaedrus]

Hey Phaedrus...that was a passionate post from you... Nah, no passion there, SC. Just stating the obvious as usual.


...no fly by nighters here mate... You reckon? I'll bet that CUE attracts more traders than the most stocks!


...as always, waiting on realisation of forseen value.... Right. Just as well you are patient!


....might take a few years... Indeed!

Take a look at this 4 year chart. Does CUE appear to be a good stock to "buy and hold"? Or does it appear to be better suited to longterm trading?

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CUE1018.gif

[seaosh]

So why didn't the market like that latest announcement?

Perceived as the Todds taking advantage of CUE new revenue streams to fund their own projects?

[Crypto Crude]

Did you read todays announcement...
MATARIKI IS BACK ON...
YEAH HARRGHHH...
corporate,
If Matariki hits a gusher, then Matariki would be tied back to the wellhead platform and the Raroa FPSO... Matariki would be connected to the well head platform through subsea flowlines...
Subsea Flowlines carries oil from the wellhead to the riser foot which is connected to processing facilities...
and bingo...
:cool:
.^sc

[Corporate]

Did you read todays announcement...
MATARIKI IS BACK ON...
YEAH HARRGHHH...
corporate,
If Matariki hits a gusher, then Matariki would be tied back to the wellhead platform and the Raroa FPSO... Matariki would be connected to the well head platform through subsea flowlines...
Subsea Flowlines carries oil from the wellhead to the riser foot which is connected to processing facilities...
and bingo...
:cool:
.^sc

And the Maari JV take a cut? To me it doesn't make sense the Maari JV already has more liquid than it can handle through the WHP and FPSO.

[macduffy]

So why didn't the market like that latest announcement?

Perceived as the Todds taking advantage of CUE new revenue streams to fund their own projects?

I wouldn't have thought so.

There is an established relationship there with CUE farming in to other Todd permits. CUE just isn't a widely followed stock.

[macduffy]

And the Maari JV take a cut? To me it doesn't make sense the Maari JV already has more liquid than it can handle through the WHP and FPSO.

May be so at present but high flow rates don't continue indefinitely. Something for the future?

[Corporate]

May be so at present but high flow rates don't continue indefinitely. Something for the future?

I agree high oil flow rates are not forever, but aside from the fact that the JV can produce from the M2A sands and Manaia which will extend the life of the field. The decline in oil produced will be offset by an increase in water which has to be handled by the FPSO and WHP.

[Phaedrus]

So, Strat, Karlos and Seaosh, having forthrightly faced your inner demons and confronted the dreaded Whadareya? question, you must now procede to the next important element of your existential search for Market bliss.

Whaddayagunnadoaboudit?

Like so many of us, part of you is drawn to trading while other aspects of your personality find longer-term investing attractive. Which is better? What to do? Why agonise over such minor technicalities - do both. Split your buys (and especially your sells) into 2 separate transactions. Because each approach requires different tools and different tactics, make sure that you are using the appropriate methods for each. You could well be using some indicators in common, but the time period selected for each would be quite different eg RSI(14) for trading vs RSI(80) for investing, perhaps. If you are very clear as to which trend you are trading - the short, medium or long - it is usually obvious which signals you should be responding to.

Some of you appear to be feeling vaguely concerned over CUE's current downtrend. Should you be thinking of selling before it falls any further? How far will it run? No-one knows, but would you be as uneasy if you had sold half your holding when those short-term Sell signals fired? You could relax a little and worry a bit less. Even if the downtrend should continue on and trigger your "medium-term" sell signals, your overall return would be higher. Should the current downtrend reverse tomorrow, you can console yourself with the fact that at least you sold only half. Of course, as a trader, you can always buy back in again any time you like.

What I am advocating here is simply having a dollar each way, rather than attempting to find some compromise approach midway between the two. Let me mix some metaphors for you. You would be like a candle in the wind and such a hybrid approach would be neither fish nor fowl. You would fall between two stools. Because of uncertainty as to your course, every wind would be a head wind. You would be like a longterm investor attempting to use tight stops! In the interests of making your life as stressfree as possible, all such conflicts need to be resolved. In any event, this would be good experience for you. You might even find that one or the other approach suits you better and/or is more profitable for you. There is no conflict here, of course, and this is not a "problem" that needs resolving. You could carry on running two or more totally different systems in parallel for as long as you like.

For those with widely diverse aims and personality characteristics, any effort expended in trying to find a single compromise approach is unlikely to succeed, in my experience.

[STRAT]

So, Strat, Karlos and Seaosh, having forthrightly faced your inner demons and confronted the dreaded Whadareya? question, you must now procede to the next important element of your existential search for Market bliss.

Whaddayagunnadoaboudit?

Like so many of us, part of you is drawn to trading while other aspects of your personality find longer-term investing attractive. Which is better? What to do? Why agonise over such minor technicalities - do both. Split your buys (and especially your sells) into 2 separate transactions. Because each approach requires different tools and different tactics, make sure that you are using the appropriate methods for each. You could well be using some indicators in common, but the time period selected for each would be quite different eg RSI(14) for trading vs RSI(80) for investing, perhaps. If you are very clear as to which trend you are trading - the short, medium or long - it is usually obvious which signals you should be responding to.

Some of you appear to be feeling vaguely concerned over CUE's current downtrend. Should you be thinking of selling before it falls any further? How far will it run? No-one knows, but would you be as uneasy if you had sold half your holding when those short-term Sell signals fired? You could relax a little and worry a bit less. Even if the downtrend should continue on and trigger your "medium-term" sell signals, your overall return would be higher. Should the current downtrend reverse tomorrow, you can console yourself with the fact that at least you sold only half. Of course, as a trader, you can always buy back in again any time you like.

What I am advocating here is simply having a dollar each way, rather than attempting to find some compromise approach midway between the two. Let me mix some metaphors for you. You would be like a candle in the wind and such a hybrid approach would be neither fish nor fowl. You would fall between two stools. Because of uncertainty as to your course, every wind would be a head wind. You would be like a longterm investor attempting to use tight stops! In the interests of making your life as stressfree as possible, all such conflicts need to be resolved. In any event, this would be good experience for you. You might even find that one or the other approach suits you better and/or is more profitable for you. There is no conflict here, of course, and this is not a "problem" that needs resolving. You could carry on running two or more totally different systems in parallel for as long as you like.

For those with widely diverse aims and personality characteristics, any effort expended in trying to find a single compromise approach is unlikely to succeed, in my experience.Haha Phaedrus

notgunnadonutinaboudit.

Already do both as Im sure you are aware :D

As a part timer Im better suited to Medium term trades with short term plays when other things allow me time to watch em close enough. I do like to put a small percentage on those longshot pennys though :o

I usually let buys decide for themselves how they should be played. As to CUE. " a bit of a worry" was perhaps a bad choice of words cause Im fairly comfortable with this one as a medium term play but at the end of the day CUE will make my mind up for me.

I appreciate your advice not just on thread but on so many things over the years. It would be fair to say your influence both direct and indirect has done more to improve my performance in this game than any other person or factor.

Im not sure everyone here gets just how much effort and expertise goes into your simple to understand charts which is a bit of a shame.

Its with much gratitude and respect that I say thanks.

[colinm_au]

From OSH QE Report

Site construction activities are nearing completion at the Wasuma well site in PPL 219 (OSH 91.25%, Operator). Drilling with Rig 103 is scheduled to commence in the fourth quarter of 2009.

This is a large structure ... looking forward to seeing this drilled finally :)

[COLIN]

Announcement: "Cue to list on NZX".
Should help to create a deeper market - perhaps....... Needs something to give it a fillip.

[marknz88]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2981645/Cue-Energy-to-list-on-NZX

interesting move..

[spike]

If you have CUE aust shares will you be able to sell them on the NZ market?



Announcement: "Cue to list on NZX".
Should help to create a deeper market - perhaps....... Needs something to give it a fillip.

[JBmurc]

Good news for both partys involved NZX gets a great growth stock CUE gets alot more interest as any half-brained NZX only investors knows how well PPP,NZO have gone CUE has even more potential IMHO could well surprise even the biggest CUE bulls
Have just brought another 37550 @ 25c

[seaosh]

So, Strat, Karlos and Seaosh, having forthrightly faced your inner demons and confronted the dreaded Whadareya? question, you must now procede to the next important element of your existential search for Market bliss.

Whaddayagunnadoaboudit?

Hmm. . .

Well today I sold down half of one portion of my CUE holding at 25 cents - making that bit of my holding free carried. I did have an order in on the close last night, but at a slightly optimistic 25 cents it didn't get filled.

I realize I have a real weakness in pulling the trigger when it comes time to sell - even when the position is in a nice profit. For some reason I make buy decisions much more easily.

I did have my finger on the trigger in late September when the short-term uptrend fizzled out, but I was too indecisive and in the end didn't move at 26 cents. Instead I told myself I'd make a move below 25 cents my signal.

Of course responding to a move below 25 cents by placing an order at 25 cents and hoping it gets filled is probably silly. Still got filled though, just took a day.

[Crypto Crude]

Phaedrus,
the problem with that strategy is that you actually have to bring yourself to sell half your CUE shares...
Thats like giving away one hundred dollar bills for a fifty...
CUE up to 26c...

recently CUE had a peak close of 28.5c... and touched 29.5c...
maybe a pulback to 20c would be of concern, but not this...
Remembering that CUE has run from 10c this year...
A stock that has reasonable low downside risk (based on production profile), and big up...
why would anyone sell?
:cool:
.^sc

[seaosh]

Don't fret Shrewy, I only sold 12% of my original holding. . .

And the proceeds will quite likely go into more NGE, or STX, or BOW or ???

[friedegg]

Announcement: "Cue to list on NZX".
Should help to create a deeper market - perhaps....... Needs something to give it a fillip.
is this the same cue that was on the nz market a few years back and then went off

[Dazza]

Hi folks its been a long time since ive posted on ST
lately these days ive been scanning alot at hotcopper as nothing on the NZX interests me. my portfolio from 2007 has changed a lot since then.

Ive still got my NZO which to date has returned 100% and counting so its doing ok i guess.

Anyways, CUE has caught my eye abit too late!

a few questions:

Todd Family i've noticed they've been a cornerstone investor since 2005. Has anyone calculated the average cost per share they have on their 27% holdings?

Ive been following alot of Ken Talbots investment, and was able to calculate his avg cost on SDL KAR and RIV.

However am strugging to find the Todd Family's avg sp in CUE..

Any help much appreiated

Dazza

[troyvdh]

Dazza...me thinks somewhere sometime I seem to recall Todd got in around 21-22 cents...it was years ago ..and i could be wrong....however I to have a question

I cannot recall ..no experience really ..what is meant/what usually happens when a company broadens it share holder base...or at least attempts to...I would assume it would be positive... speaking generally I reckon most folk would agree that in 5 years the poo will be higher than it is now....Todds are (I believe) not stupid...in for the long term...gee would it not be good if "the masses" who only read the headlines..got a liking for shares again..oil ones of course...like Cue.

Disc 111000 cue

[JBmurc]

If you have CUE aust shares will you be able to sell them on the NZ market?

Yes you will but you will have to transfer them to the NZX register ring your broker for the form.

[macduffy]

Yes you will but you will have to transfer them to the NZX register ring your broker for the form.

But be aware that the NZ market for CUE is likely to be pretty thin, at least initially.

I'll be leaving mine on the Aust register for now.

;)

[digger]

But be aware that the NZ market for CUE is likely to be pretty thin, at least initially.

I'll be leaving mine on the Aust register for now.

;)

A reason for transfering to NZX is if you sell you have to be sure which dollar you want. Brokers always seem to get you on a cross rate that is fair only to them.It would be much simpler if we had only one currency.

[spike]

Good to see some New Zealand trade go through now that it has listed on the NZ market.

[STRAT]

I dont get it.:confused:
The NZX is something to graduate out of not into. Surely there must be some other reason for this listing.
Any tax advantage for the major share holders or something else?:confused:

[shasta]

I dont get it.:confused:
The NZX is something to graduate out of not into. Surely there must be some other reason for this listing.
Any tax advantage for the major share holders or something else?:confused:

Dunno, more listing fees, more adminstrative costs though...:rolleyes:

[macduffy]

Well, 40% of CUE is apparently held in NZ although I guess that includes Todd's. But not to be ignored and probably means that the original NZ listing was probably only given up for reasons of cost.

[digger]

I dont get it.:confused:
The NZX is something to graduate out of not into. Surely there must be some other reason for this listing.
Any tax advantage for the major share holders or something else?:confused:

STRAT i would say you are on to it. Look at PPP's recent dividend.WE NZ holders were in a better tax situation because PPP was listed on the NZX.Simple as that.Something to do with franked dividends that can not be passed on or not at the same rate if you had a AUS residence. My accountant said something like that but it would be better to get an accountant to explaine it,i just know if there is to be a future dividend and you have a NZ address you are not getting all the benfits that an AUS one has.

[COLIN]

is this the same cue that was on the nz market a few years back and then went off

Fried: I don't think anyone has responded to your question. The answer is "yes". The NZX announcement "welcomed their return".

[macduffy]

I dont get it.:confused:
The NZX is something to graduate out of not into. Surely there must be some other reason for this listing.
Any tax advantage for the major share holders or something else?:confused:

The reason, according to James Weir of the DomPost apparently is that :

"Cue de-listed in NZ in 2005 because listing rules then were less flexible than in Australia and the company wanted to avoid the added cost of a dual listing. Now, New Zealand rules are in line with Australia and CUE is returning to the market."

[STRAT]

Thanks Macduffy.
Still doesnt add up to me. I reckon there is more to it.

[geezy]

when will CUE be announcing its results?

[macduffy]

when will CUE be announcing its results?

What results are you expecting?

For the year to 30 June 2009 CUE had a net profit before impairment of $6m. But after impairment writedowns of $26.9m, a net loss after tax of $20.9m.

[tobo]

Do you NZ resident holders of CUE.ax reckeon there's any advantage in converting (or selling AX and buying NZX)?

a) Tax (but not a FIF, I think, so the only impact is if they start dividends)

b) lower liquidity,

c) price difference (after converting) (more an issue it thin liquidity)

d) no exchange rate exposure

e) what if they delist again

f) anything else to consider? (sovereign risk - ha ha)

g) might there be a short term flurry of kiwis who were not set up for ausi investments?

[upside_umop]

Do you NZ resident holders of CUE.ax reckeon there's any advantage in converting (or selling AX and buying NZX)?

Probably not...but there are a few points to think over and it may suit individuals differently.


a) Tax (but not a FIF, I think, so the only impact is if they start dividends)

Overseas investment tax? Ish may be able to clear this one up as he was talking about it a couple of sharetrader meetings ago about obligations investing in small caps on the ASX. Its 5% on something excluding ASX300 isnt it?


b) lower liquidity,

Always handy to be able to offload when you need to. Depends how big of a player you are in market pricing i guess.


c) price difference (after converting) (more an issue it thin liquidity)

NZ should be dictated by Australia pricing, however...as you say liquidity could enable you to exit with a higher price than on the ASX. (ASX could very well be the other way too!) This mispricing is not considered 'arbitrage' as there is risk of buying back in on the otherside.


d) no exchange rate exposure

You will have exchange rate exposure built into CUE.nz as it should always trade around CUE.nz = CUE.ax/(AUD/NZD) cross rate. Therefore, if we depreciate/appreciate, it will be reflected in the movement between the two stocks prices (sometimes it will be slightly out because of rounding - stock prices to 0.5 cent in AUD but only 1 cent in NZD etc).


e) what if they delist again

Not so sure they would do that? Should be around for the next 22 years - thats how long Maari is expected to be pumping for!


f) anything else to consider? (sovereign risk - ha ha)

Think you covered the main points!

g) might there be a short term flurry of kiwis who were not set up for ausi investments?[/QUOTE]

There also may be an advantage if you buy on the NZX with funds already in NZ. I know with ASB Securities, they charge 75 basis points over the spot rate to convert to AUD. It therefore could be beneficial if you combine this with mispricing from liquidity or exchange rate movements and get a cheaper entry price. If you had to exit in a hurry, you might get caught on the otherside though.

Disc: cue.ax as I dont need funds in the immediate future.

[tobo]

Thanks, UU.

of course you are right about exposure to exchange rate(s) - it exists through the offshore business regardless of paying for the shares in NZD

cheers

[JBmurc]

NZX-cue-34c ASX-cue-24c likely some 10c diff ,would prob be worth moving me ASX cue to NZX even though the volume will be light the buyers are keen

[Crypto Crude]

shrewd crude report...

$40 million plus in positive cashflows per year for the long long long term aint bad for a $160 million cap...
Long term oil price curve is up...


I just sat down and started punching some basic numbers...
I will put the notes to the revenues at the bottom...
These numbers are expected revenues for the current quarter, the cashflows do not represent the precise predicted cash balances as delivery of oil cargo timing is uncertain...
revenues that are incurred that have not been recieved
get booked as accrued revenues (current asset), so I will add them into the cash balance...

revenues expected for the current quarter,
SE Gobe $1,200,000
Oyong Oil $4,162,498
Oyong Gas $3,712,500
Maari Oil $$$ 12,187,500 (assuming 32,500 BOPD)...

totaling $21.26 million in expected revenues... wow...

From this let us minus expected cash outflows for the current quarter...(printed in quarterly)...

exploration and evaluation $4,216,000
Development costs $3,493,000
Production costs $3,500,000 (estimated)
Administration costs $600,000

equals cash outflows of $8,309,000

revenues less expenses $21.26 million minus $ 8,309,000 equals 12,951,000 Million of positive cashflow...
wow...
I estimated Production costs upwards by one million...
as I assume that the drop of development costs will transfer extra costs to production activities instead...

so, that will leave us with 31.7 million in cash equivalent (current cash of 18.83 million plus 12.9million in positive cashflow)...
The exact end of quarter cash balance depends on retirement of debt, and timing of cargo...

CUE has Debt of 22.7 million...

Development costs are expected to fall from 4.4 million to 3.4 million in the quarter as Ensoc 107 jack up drilling Rig moves off from the Maari field in Mid November which will again push down development costs for the following quarter...
Production for the current quarter will be up (again) on last quarter as failure of downhole equipment meant that Maari production wells had to be shut in during heavy lift operations...
also, during last quarter Oyong Oil was shut in for 14days to allow for modifications to Oyong Gas...

So CUE will be able to earn positive cashflows of around 10 million dollars plus, per quarter over the long term...

This is because, Manaia and M2A will come online in the future which will support lofty Maari revenues for longer... also Wortel Gas coming online in early 2011 will offset declining flow rates... and then during 2015 (at the back end of PNG LNG startup), WE WILL have first SE Gobe Gas production,
then Barikewa Gas, and possible Kimu and then Cash Maple gas production which will support 3000+ BOEPD for the long long term...
during mid 2014, Barrels of oil Equivalent production will drop to around 2000 BOE/PD, then the next leg up in PNG...
or Perhaps Matariki, or Artemis, or Bass, or taken over......
...
10 million positive cashflow for the long term... this is great for a stock with a market cap of 166 million...
CUE has a swagga of activities/ projects to support the other stages of the company, which should mean we have zero technical downside, (because of CUEs production profile)...
...
so, going on these numbers its rather strange as CUE should be supporting its current market value on revenues alone...

I guess it is the debt, and the lower production rates last quarter, and the higher development costs... as development expenses fall, then in a few quarters we will hoard a strong cash backing that the market can start to factor in... production revenues take time to really hit the bottom line.....
its a slow process, that in other sectors the market factors in more quickly, but as this is a risky business (high risk sector), the market wants to see more stable and consistant production for them to really get excited...


assumptions- gas prices of $5 AUS per MCF...
current oil prices of $75US...
exchange rate of .90
90 days per quarter...

SE Gobe 160 BOPD CUE
Oyong Oil 555 BOPD CUE
Gas (mid point) 55MMCF per day, our stake 15% ...
so 8.25MMCF... or 8250 MCF per day...
Maari (mid point- from the quarterly report) 32,500 BOPD at 5%... 1625 BOPD CUE
:cool:
.^sc

[trackers]

$40-50mil profit p.a on 120mil cap is all good shrewdy, especially given the upside of some of CUE's highly prospective permits.

Great report as usual

[geezy]

$40-50mil profit p.a on 120mil cap is all good shrewdy, especially given the upside of some of CUE's highly prospective permits.

Great report as usual

how long is your long term mr trackers? :)

[STRAT]

how long is your long term mr trackers? :)I reckon Geezy.
Is anyone close enough to CUE to give it a kick in the guts for me:D.

Its starting to feel like another VPE :eek:

[trackers]

how long is your long term mr trackers? :)

MMmm yes its been an average couple of weeks.

whilst its no fun holding stocks that are not going up, until something changes fundamentally CUE's staying in the stables :) Still been a good year for those who have held CUE right the way through

[geezy]

I reckon Geezy.
Is anyone close enough to CUE to give it a kick in the guts for me:D.

Its starting to feel like another VPE :eek:

yeah i know, needs to have more media coverage imho :P

starting to look more like nzo to me

[trackers]

yeah i know, needs to have more media coverage imho :P

starting to look more like nzo to me

CUE isn't as much of a one trick pony as NZO is/was (been a while since I held that!)

Hate to say it, but in the absence of a general rerating it may be positive news on the Artemis front which gives the CUE sp the shunt it needs... :p

[Financially dependant]

Hate to say it, but in the absence of a general rerating it may be positive news on the Artemis front which gives the CUE sp the shunt it needs... :p

I have to agree with you trackers, it is Artemis that has attracted the punters and once they have a look at the great fundamentals a lot of them stay. The farmin deal looks to be announced next week or before the 18th anyway so more punters should be coming on board....rerating eminent....;)

[ELYOB]

Artemis will have the Zeus disease ......... my diagnosis

CUE will wane away again .

[macduffy]

Oil and gas exploration is extremely risky of course but is there any particular reason to write off Artemis at this early stage?

:confused:

[trackers]

Oil and gas exploration is extremely risky of course but is there any particular reason to write off Artemis at this early stage?

:confused:

No.. My understanding is that the standard geological chance of success of a well is ~20%, with Artemis estimated at ~32%... So as far as o&e exploration goes, this is a goody

Target upgraded to 12TCF after recent 3D seismic (from 9TCF). To discount Artemis you'd have to be saying that the seismic and interpretations are simply wrong, or at the least misleading

http://www.oilvoice.com/n/MEO_Announces_East_Artemis_Predrill_Resource_Estim ate_Upgrade/8e9ecfaaf.aspx

[STRAT]

http://www.crownminerals.govt.nz/cms/news/2009/maari-now-a-100-million-barrel-oil-field-with-additional-wells

[Crypto Crude]

ELYOB-
Artemis will have the Zeus disease ......... my diagnosis

CUE will wane away again .


hey ELYOB,
Artemis or no Artemis, CUE has the foundations to support/ and build on its current market cap through its revenue profile alone...
This is not a high risk oil stock... it is a rare oiler with low downside risk...
Share price growth will slow down as profit takers sell CUE as it has already run up from 10c this year...
Also the overhang of extra listed shares with the offer at 15c...

CUE can not fall away...
theres just too much in these cashflows...
reserves of 5 million barrels from Maari/Manaia...
we got the 100 million barrels I said we would get close to...
we got Manaia...
really, we got the short end of the stick....
since when did the market factor these things in?
I will continue to wait and hopefully in the next year get some wells thrown in for free on a downside supported stock, aswell as PNG happenings and all the rest...

so, you may say that CUE has had its dash, but this is really only the beginning... awhole lot of assets the market still ignores...
the secret is what we have going on in PNG...
low risk sort of stuff with big upside...
:cool:
.^sc