CUE-> Pantheon of small oil stocks

[Crypto Crude]

nzoiler-CUE looking stunning... your bulldance and chanting is working Shrewd.
This baby is going for a nice run over the next couple of weeks and there will be good money made by holders.
A good Maari update will a nice sweetener... :)
Regards all


hahaha...
hootering and hollaring mate...:D....
well, the spike is to do with Zeus, and if that goes bad then guess where the SP is going.... realistically the spike should have been long underway
as Maari production is about to start ramping up, and continuing until August...
So oil prices dont need to be really set until full production at that time....
profitable here at prices sub $30US... but cautious at $25 US...
and crisis around $15 US.... costs sunk so money is better than no money..

If Zeus goes bad, then its straight back down...
BUT, id expect the share price to go down by much less than its recent lows, so a great investment to take on the downside (still from here)....
Id guess now that lows on failure at Zeus would be 13 cents, as id expect more upside from here on the SP as Zeus spuds, and gets to depth which would offset some of a fallout....
This should top out around 20c on Zeus lead up, or more depending on Maari, and how the market reacts to that...

Expect much sp action as Zeus heats up, and Maari production gets underway...
will be good opportunities for traders even now...
even after the hootering and hollaring....
we wont know the real outcome until final drilling results...
im holding all the way...
later...
:cool:
.^sc

[CAM]

Taranaki oil rig workers locked out
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4814918a11.html

[Ketel One]

MEO price query and response: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090112/pdf/31fjqmqvp0rrz1.pdf Relevant bits below.


PRICE QUERY
We have noted a change in the price of the Company’s securities from $0.185 at the close of trade on Thursday 8 January 2009 to a high of $0.30 at the time of writing today. We have also noted an increase in volume in the same period.


Response from MEO:

RE: PRICE QUERY
The Company notes the rise in the share price during the week and offers the following possible explanation for this increase:

(a) In respect of the upcoming drilling of the Zeus-1 exploration well in WA-361-P, MEO announced on 8th January 2009 that it was expecting to receive handover of the Songa Venus semi-submersible rig on the evening of the 8th January in preparation for an approximate 7-day tow to the Zeus-1 well location. The Zeus-1 well is expected to spud on or about 17th January 2009.

In the same release, the company advised that the Zeus-1 well is estimated to have the potential to contain in the order of 15Tcf gas-in-place in the primary objective and a further 3.7Tcf gas-in-place in the shallower secondary objective. With 35% equity in the well, a successful outcome at Zeus-1 would clearly result in a substantial uplift in the value of MEO securities.

(b) MEO confirms that the handover of the Songa Venus rig was completed on 8th January 2009 and is currently under tow to the Zeus-1 well location.

[Financially dependant]

With so much going on I am surprised how slow the SP has been?? Not sure if the strike action at Taranaki is having a negative influence??

For the ann today by OSH I thought would be good news for CUE, another major player in the PNG LNG market. The price Nippon Oil paid for AGL and OSH assets would reflect well on CUE assets, any comments??

Cheers FD

[macduffy]

With so much going on I am surprised how slow the SP has been?? Not sure if the strike action at Taranaki is having a negative influence??

For the ann today by OSH I thought would be good news for CUE, another major player in the PNG LNG market. The price Nippon Oil paid for AGL and OSH assets would reflect well on CUE assets, any comments??

Cheers FD

Yes, but the overall negative tone, both in Australia and world-wide, overwhelms any good news at present. eg BHP down 5%, RIO down about 8% today.

[Crypto Crude]

fd,
patience my friend...
the share price has come up from 10c this year...
40% in 2 weeks...
buffet can stuffit... eah...hehehe...
20% per year is for kiddies over the medium term...

well,
at CUE, the more certain wells are coming later on this year...
and will arrive in time periods recieved more favourably...
in all respect, we dont want Zeus spudding just yet...
we want it spudding when the market takes this big target seriously...

hootering and hollaring about a lock out of staff dont bother me...
it all works itself through...
As we all know, workers can be replaced...
its not like workers are indespensible....
king pins are at the top side by side....
we stand as per usual....

mega million dollar assets and mega small market cap...
NZO stupid having stab at PPP and not CUE...
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

fd,
I will soon reply about CUE's PNG assets in full detail...
:cool:
.^sc

[Financially dependant]

I guess my perspective is clouded by MEO spectacular raise on news of the rig being towed to site! It was looking like CUE was tracking that rise for a day or two....

Patient I will have to be.... locked and loaded ready for news....:)

I look forward to your excellent research SC:cool: (as usual) on LNG in PNG

[Crypto Crude]

hey FD,
I would not look closely at MEO for any indication on anything...
Some broker outfit comes out with a looney valuation on the company, then an insto buys a heap of stock on market in a short period of time with the only motive to drive the SP up quickly... pump a dump....

they then sell their positions on the way down and make a profit... this can be done easily as it does not take a heap of money to pump the heads, and on the way down larger holdings are easier to sell, as investors chase a falling stock.....

this is exactly how I called it...
volumes dry up, then pumping and dumping comes back...
and now we have it all over again...
The SP is driven by manipulation...
sure its a big target...
MEO has Zeus only...

CUE has Zeus and everything else...
:cool:
.^sc

[Dusty]

ASX AND MEDIA RELEASE

Zeus-1 update

Key Points
Songa Venus arrives at the Zeus-1 location today and is running anchors,

MELBORNE, AUSTRALIA (January 16th, 2009) -- MEO Australia Limited (ASX: MEO) is pleased to advise that the Songa Venus semi-submersible drilling rig arrived at the Zeus-1 location at 10:00am Perth time today and at 10:25am began running the first of eight anchors.

All equipment and materials required for Zeus-1 spud (commencement of drilling) are on board and expectations are for the rig to commence drilling over the weekend.

Zeus-1 is a complex structural/stratigraphic play estimated to contain 15 Tcf gas-in-place in the Legendre Sandstones (primary target), and 3.7 Tcf potential gas-in-place in the overlying Forrestier Sandstones (secondary target).

Resource Development International Limited (RDI) is paying 80% of the well costs to a cap of US$31.25m to earn a 35% interest in WA-361-P. In the event Zeus-1 discovers hydrocarbons, RDI will pay for MEO’s share of two additional wells in the permit.

MEO plans to release weekly drilling updates every Wednesday.

[jdg]

zeus is spudded. how apt the name. if ever we needed the help of the gods, this is it. fingers crossed everyone.

-j

[Dusty]

Very interesting day for CUE, sp been up and down, relatively decent volume. Help of the gods indeed hopefully the faith is rewarded.

[Dusty]

Zeus drilling ahead of schedule today at 1,020m in 17-1/2" hole towards next planned casing point 1,885m, released along with announcement was a chart with drilling schedule for next 25days and actual schedule. I cant figure out how to copy the chart over here because of the security maybe someone else who isn't such a newb can.

[Tok3n]

In this market, with CUE at 14c, they're already pricing in a discovery lol

[bermuda]

Good luck all holders. This could be very big for you.

[jdg]

it sure could, bermuda, but as we know all too well, the chances of success are much lower than the chances of failure. all we can do is hope for the best, and that PoO doesn't drop further - that's of much greater concern this year.

-j

[Crypto Crude]

I would have thought that The horizontal section of the first development well at Maari would have been completed by now.....
surely it must be real close...

on Dec 5th ann conductor casing placements had been completed on 9 sections...(with one spare location)...conductor casing to eliminate near surface caving in...
then batch drilling of the first 3 wells then began and was completed with casing to a depth of 900m which was completed on dec 24th...
on 29th dec it was announced that the first development well was drilled to 1532m (dated 28th), with 468m more to go until horizontal drilling of Moki Formation... and then horizontal drilling to commence for 1600m through the oil column...

then completion, equipped for production, and turned to the FPSO...
very recent reports still suggest early Feb 1st production from first development well..... then ramping up as each development well is completed...
so it has been 24 days since last ann...
we are due an update...anyone heard anything official...?
full production in August... so abit of time for oil prices to spin some magic...

Also, sometime next week we should hear on primary section of Zeus well...
not much of a BESBS play forming on CUE...
:cool:
.^sc

[KentBrockman]

not much of a BESBS play forming on CUE...
:cool:
.^sc

You really have to wonder what will happen should Zeus be dry. MEO will basically halve in SP (or even less than that) but what about CUE?

There doesn't really seem to be much potential for BOBN for this well built into the SP or what?

[brettdale]

hurry up pay day, six days away, this one is on my watch ,list with seven others.

[Dusty]

You really have to wonder what will happen should Zeus be dry. MEO will basically halve in SP (or even less than that)

Should Zeus be dry this will be a disaster for MEO because unlike CUE who have Maari, PNG etc Zeus is it for MEO. CUE will not be spared though however bad news is exaggerated in this market and SP will take a hit especially with the continuing pressure of sub 40 Poo

[Crypto Crude]

o dusty,
Should Zeus be dry this will be a disaster for MEO because unlike CUE who have Maari, PNG etc Zeus is it for MEO. CUE will not be spared though however bad news is exaggerated in this market and SP will take a hit especially with the continuing pressure of sub 40 Poo


hey o dusty,
I orginally said CUE would have bottomed out around 13cents on Zeus failure because I was expecting a strong run in the sp in the lead up to spud, spud, mid drill, target zone...
The SP did hit 17cents and then it retraced, most likely on the Union issue, and profit taking...
In reality, the SP could do anything on zeus failure... its just to big of a risk to sell... seriously... downside minimal enough if you have an extra few months to wait out the rally (worst case, rally up to 13c if fell to 10c)...
which would be breakeven if got in over the next few days...

If yourve been back paid for all costs spent in the permit, and free carried on an exploration well... and lets say the well goes bad... then Technically the sp should be indifferent as you are now no better or worse off than you other wise would have been had you just sit on the permit and made it look pretty in the glossy annual reports...

in saying that though, MEO have announced recently that they are going to pursue the other two adjacent permits if Zeus is successful...(and they will upon success IMO)
CUE have one free carry in each Northwest Shelf Permit...
MEO said the next well would be within 12 months...
so Zeus is actually very important for the near term future within these permits, and within the region itself... big times ahead...

we either open up a whole new project in our asset class to add to the others, or we stay with the current asset pool, waiting on future developments... past and beyond the current 3 core developments...

I guess we wont really know how the market would react to a likely failure of Zeus... Im quietly confident from what Ive seen, but im pretty hush hush on these sorts of gambles... I pretty much bank on bankables, and take freebies as they come, were just abit lucky to have such a well now free carried and all...
looking for a new rig on Spikey Beach and hopefully free carried spud in a few months...
im more sure of this than anything ive seen... we will have to be patient if Zeus goes bad... At worst case I will have to wait 5 years to get to one dollar share and ride in PNG with OSH, STO, Exxon... and take 100-200% per year from here on in... or get alittle lucky with Zeus or Matariki, and hit it now...
Matariki also looks the goods...

I want it all now... I deserve it...

I will be patient, and quiet... and a realist...
this is risky...
im not expecting anything really... maybe just to prop the sp up for awhile well Maari comes in... hehehe...
catch all my good friends up...
Im feeling great as I always...
peace out...
:cool:
.^sc

[colinm_au]

HORIZON OIL (HZN): MAARI DEVELOPMENT DRILLING UPDATE – 23 JAN 09
Horizon Oil Limited is pleased to announce that further good progress has been made on the
Maari Oil Field development since the last drilling update provided to shareholders on 29
December 2008. In that update it was reported that batch drilling of the surface holes for the
first three production wells to depths of about 900 m was successfully completed.
The MR3P8 oil production well was then drilled to a depth of 2,052 m and 10-¾” casing run to
2,048 m. A 9-½” horizontal section was drilled over 1,518 m in the upper part of the Moki
reservoir formation, entirely in clean, oil-bearing sandstone. On reaching total depth of 3,570
m, the lower completion assembly consisting of wire-wrapped screens was installed into the
open-hole.
Subsequently the upper completion assembly, containing the electric submersible pump and
sub-surface safety valve assemblies, was run on 6-5/8” tubing and stabbed into the lower
completion. Finally the heat-tube, which is designed to prevent wax deposition in the tubing,
was installed inside the completion string and terminated at the wellhead.
The rig completed operations on MR3P8 at 1800 hrs on 22 January 2009 and skidded to the
next production well slot, MR4P9, where drilling of the 14-½” hole-section is underway.
The MR3P8 well will now be hooked-up to the production facilities, by installing surface
piping, electrical connections and instrumentation, prior to commencing production to the FPSO
Raroa anticipated for later next month.
The Maari Oil Field is located in PMP 38160, in the offshore Taranaki basin, New Zealand. Oil
production will ramp up towards the expected initial gross rate of 35,000 barrels of oil as the
development wells are progressively drilled and turned to the FPSO.

[Crypto Crude]

thanks colin,
that was a very detailed announcement...
great announcement eah...

I thought upon completion of the first well that it would have been connected and put onto production pretty quick smart...
late next month ann said...what the...... sp closed at an embarrasing 12.5c...

what on Earth is wrong here?
I have not misread this company even if Zeus fails...
ARGHggghhhhhhh....
:cool:
.^sc

[colinm_au]

The reason we are in CUE is because we recognise that the SP significantly undervalues the company ...

The SP is down from 0.165 on Jan12 to 0.125 on Jan23 or 24.2% on a total of only 12,183,992 shares or .55% of issued capital whilst in this period MEO has risen 16.1% ...

Whilst this is disappointing, CUE have a growing production profile that will benefit when the oil price starts returning to more realistic levels in our 'Peak' oil world.

If Zeus comes in CUE's Carnarvon basin acreage could be worth ??? ... Here's hoping !!! :D

[Crypto Crude]

More good news people...


Taranaki Daily News > Local News > Story Oil workers dispute is settled
By RYAN EVANS ryan.evans@tnl.co.nz - Taranaki Daily News | Saturday, 24 January 2009

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A threatened lockout of 45 Taranaki offshore oil workers has been averted at the last minute.


Offshore Marine Services issued the 45 workers, all Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union members, with a lockout notice almost two weeks ago. It was due to come into effect yesterday.

The lockout notice followed an ongoing dispute over employment negotiations. Yesterday EPMU Taranaki organiser Ross Henderson said a deal had been reached on Wednesday after six or seven days of negotiation.

The deal is still subject to ratification but includes a 5 per cent bonus for the workers upon ratification, a 5 per cent bonus on the first off-take of oil and pay rises ranging from 14 to 20 per cent.

It allows the workers to return to work on the floating production storage and uploading vessel Raroa, which works alongside the Maari wellhead platform about 80km off the South Taranaki coast before the lockout.
:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

More good news people...

.
:cool:
.^sc

Shrewd can you point me to where CUE says it has 57mmboe (2P).

That's huge if it's the case (i can't work out what 1 BCF v 1mmbo is) :confused:

Valuing CUE on the same basis as say BPT, you get...

BPT Market Cap ~760m/145mmboe (2P) = $5.24m per 1mmbo reserves.

CUE Market Cap ~78m/57mmboe (2P) = $1.36m per 1mmbo reserves.

Value CUE @ $5.24m x 57mmboe = Market Cap of $298m or ~47cps

That kind of discount interests me, although BPT already has annual production of > 9mmboe & is on a P/E of ~10.

Need an oiler to throw into the mix, & PPP is to passive for me, & OEL has been a disappointment to date.

[tricha]

thanks colin,
that was a very detailed announcement...
great announcement eah...

I thought upon completion of the first well that it would have been connected and put onto production pretty quick smart...
late next month ann said...what the...... sp closed at an embarrasing 12.5c...

what on Earth is wrong here?
I have not misread this company even if Zeus fails...
ARGHggghhhhhhh....
:cool:
.^sc

U have not misread the company Shrewd, u have mis-read Mr Market, who is still in a extremely bad mood.:eek:

Hence I bailed at a loss, I might add, its a new ball game where the rules have changed. "Cash is King"

1. Maari Oil Field if it delivers CUE will be away.

2. or if Mr Market changes ( I doubt it, this year)

3. or if oil goes up ( I doubt it this year)

4. or Zeus comes in.( a bloody good chance)

There is a lot to like about CUE and I will be back in, in a flash if conditions change.
I just hope I am not sitting at the station watching the ship go past.:rolleyes:

[Corporate]

Shrewd can you point me to where CUE says it has 57mmboe (2P).

That's huge if it's the case (i can't work out what 1 BCF v 1mmbo is) :confused:

Valuing CUE on the same basis as say BPT, you get...

BPT Market Cap ~760m/145mmboe (2P) = $5.24m per 1mmbo reserves.

CUE Market Cap ~78m/57mmboe (2P) = $1.36m per 1mmbo reserves.

Value CUE @ $5.24m x 57mmboe = Market Cap of $298m or ~47cps

That kind of discount interests me, although BPT already has annual production of > 9mmboe & is on a P/E of ~10.

Need an oiler to throw into the mix, & PPP is to passive for me, & OEL has been a disappointment to date.

I vaguely remember that you divided bcf by a factor of 7? Can't remember...can check up on monday.

But isn't it a bit of a useless calculation anyway....given that gas and oil prices are not correlated?

[Crypto Crude]

shasta-Shrewd can you point me to where CUE says it has 57mmboe (2P).


Ive not seen CUE stipulate the fact that they have 57million barrels 2P BOE... I worked it out myself... I will repost it...




tricha-Maari Oil Field if it delivers CUE will be away.


its not if, its when mate... OMV are the real deal...they will make no mistakes... Last update read very well... Earlier on I thought there might have been some production startup risk because of the fact that the oil needs to be heated up.... But then I read into OMV, and realised just how capable this outfit really is....



corporate-But isn't it a bit of a useless calculation anyway....given that gas and oil prices are not correlated?


It allows us to form one figure instead of oil and gas measured seperately...
it measures volumes rather than value...ie amount of energy contained in one barrel of oil... Its not as if saying you have 1 million barrels of oil means much anyway... crudes come in all different grades and prices...

I tell others that CUE have 300 BCF of gas, 120 BCF here and 30 BCF there and others most probably cant comprehend what that means... by putting it in BOE everyone knows... BOE is an important term... it is often used to by companies for its total output figure...



Investopedia explains Barrel Of Oil Equivalent (BOE)...
This term is used frequently when exploration and production companies are reporting the amount of reserves they may have. By giving a BOE figure, analysts, investors and management can assess the total amount of energy the firm has access to, without breaking it down into barrel's of crude oil, or the cubic feet of natural gas.

:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

Ive not seen CUE stipulate the fact that they have 57million barrels 2P BOE... I worked it out myself... I will repost it...




its not if, its when mate... OMV are the real deal...they will make no mistakes... Last update read very well... Earlier on I thought there might have been some production startup risk because of the fact that the oil needs to be heated up.... But then I read into OMV, and realised just how capable this outfit really is....



It allows us to form one figure instead of oil and gas measured seperately...
it measures volumes rather than value...ie amount of energy contained in one barrel of oil... Its not as if saying you have 1 million barrels of oil means much anyway... crudes come in all different grades and prices...

I tell others that CUE have 300 BCF of gas, 120 BCF here and 30 BCF there and others most probably cant comprehend what that means... by putting it in BOE everyone knows... BOE is an important term... it is often used to by companies for its total output figure...

:cool:
.^sc

Thanks Shrewd

BOE is extremely important for a company producing both oil & gas.

I like & use the term as it's good for comparisons, even though i don't quite understand the mechanics of how it's calculated. :confused:

[Crypto Crude]

This is just a repost



ok ok ok...

lets break down some proven numbers for all of us to see...
first oil assets, then gas assets


OIL ASSETS

Oyong oil current production, and 370,000 barrels to come to CUE......
S E Gobe current production, and 200,000 barrels to come to CUE.......
Maari--> 2,500,000 barrels to come with certain upside***...

oil reserves so far... add all 2P oil assets up and we get--> 3,070,000 million barrels of oil.....

GAS ASSETS

First of all I will change gas assets to Oil assets (converted Barrels of Oil equilivant)... Gas assets do not necessailry mean equilivant prices to Oil, but More so the point of equilivant energy consumption per barrel....the rate between oil and gas is 5487 cubic feet equals to one barrel of oil... ..... so 1 barrel of oil=5.487 MCF....

BOE is in terms of energy consumption of oil barrels of total company production profile, without breaking down each asset class within the sector...

OK ok ok ok... lets list CUE's gas 2P assets...

1)30 BCF Kimu
2)2.5 BCF S E Gobe..... quoted as 2P but apart of PNG LNG equilivant, even though unyet undefined..... smaller production risk, and less PNG LNG risk makes up for 2P reserves easy (and small also)....
3)120 BCF Bariweka
4)12 BCF Oyong Gas Production 2009
5)12 BCF Wortel Gas Production 2010
6) 120 BCF Cash Maple


1)30,000,000,000cf/5487cf=5,467,468 barrels...
2)2,500,000,000cf/5487cf=455622 barrels...
3)120,000,000,000cf/5487cf=21,869,874 barrels...
4)2,186,987 barrels
5)same as above
6)same as 3)

add these up and we get 54,036,992 barrels of oil equilivant...
add in barrels of oil 2P and we have 57,106,992....

also note that 1) kimu did have a downgrade (I cant remember the exact figure so minus a few million off that), if need be...

no bull...

when we change all of CUE's gas assets to oil assets equliviant, and add oil assets---> we have one barrel (in total) equal to $1.375 (2PD) AUS.... wow...

ok so... whats wrong with the valuation?

well, nothing really... other than the fact that some of CUE's assets are longer term... short term asset of Maari is less than 30 days off 1st oil production (bad call, 30 days off completion should be).... Maari was bought by CUE for $1.48 US per barrel...
development costs have added to this...
time value of money added to all costs makes this an extremely profitable project... A project that could possbily ramp all other projects off of.....


I worked out that Zeus which will spud mid Jan could add 40 million barrels of oil (BOE) to cue, for its given stake... that would almost double CUEs proven 2P assets..... and there is major upside to this figure...
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

Tricha-U have not misread the company Shrewd, u have mis-read Mr Market, who is still in a extremely bad mood.


Well,
I dont really think I mis read the market...
I thought the market was going to downtrend and all... I did sell everything in 2007... I waited... and I saw an opportunity that I thought would offset a falling market...I immaturally thought I could beat the market because of two reasons...
1) Ive done it every year for 5 years... and
2) ive got a big head...

When I got back into CUE (at the top of the market, also when oil prices were $130 US), CUE had imminent projects ramping up that I thought would offset a falling market...
Maari development got held back month after month after month...
Zeus delayed and delayed...
Spikey beach delayed and delayed....
These 3 activities were meant to be completed last year which in my view would have offset the falling market...

Im prepared to accept my losses based on the fact that projects were delayed and it gave enough time for markets to swoop...

pity I called it so wrong... I posted indepth on the first page here about market risks...
in the end this will be a fairy tale dream and I dont care who gives me beef about it now... mackdunk is most welcome...
cinderella story in the making...
... I went large, and wont sell until I see material change to the companies assets...If I do see material change I will sell in a heartbeat...
peace out...
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

Well,
I dont really think I mis read the market...
I thought the market was going to downtrend and all... I did sell everything in 2007... I waited... and I saw an opportunity that I thought would offset a falling market...I immaturally thought I could beat the market because of two reasons...
1) Ive done it every year for 5 years... and
2) ive got a big head...

When I got back into CUE (at the top of the market, also when oil prices were $130 US), CUE had imminent projects ramping up that I thought would offset a falling market...
Maari development got held back month after month after month...
Zeus delayed and delayed...
Spikey beach delayed and delayed....
These 3 activities were meant to be completed last year which in my view would have offset the falling market...

Im prepared to accept my losses based on the fact that projects were delayed and it gave enough time for markets to swoop...

pity I called it so wrong... I posted indepth on the first page here about market risks...
in the end this will be a fairy tale dream and I dont care who gives me beef about it now... mackdunk is most welcome...
cinderella story in the making...
... I went large, and wont sell until I see material change to the companies assets...If I do see material change I will sell in a heartbeat...
peace out...
:cool:
.^sc

Hi Shrewd

It sounds a bit like my old favourite Otto ( Peter Strachan's as WELL ), I'm glad I am out of them, what a disaster, Galoc oil still not pumping again and they missed the boat by 6 months. I will not at all be surprised to see them go bust.

Any company that needs cash to carry on is now sitting on the edge of a cliff.

We live and learn.:)

[Crypto Crude]

Theres no comparison sorry...

yes... we live and we learn...
we also live and earn...
hehehe...
:cool:
.^sc

[ELYOB]

CUE is absolutely nothing like OEL . CUE is a successful producer , developer, and explorer of bigtime . Maari online soon ; Indonesian gas by mid year + ; Wortel news soon ; more NZ exploration June + ; better poo by end feb 09 ......

And current upside with the gods!

OEL is in a bad situation , brace for the quarterly as you are about to learn about the walking dead !

I hold CUE

[Crypto Crude]

hey tricha,
on the thread undervalued oilers, cash cows thread you started...
you said this


Shrewd - CUE will most likely be a Cat 2, u can not quite sleep soundly on it, it will move to a Cat 1 when Maari is doing the business. I'll explain later.

can you explain?
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

hey tricha,
on the thread undervalued oilers, cash cows thread you started...
you said this

can you explain?
:cool:
.^sc

Hi Shrewd

Whats was Cue's cash backing per share last quarter ??? I think it will answer your question.

What will it be this quarter, we shall see this week most likely.???

Problems for CUE is the oil price is so low that last quarters oil sales in $ will be extremely low.
Multiply that by more money required for Maari because of long delays and interest payments.

And no guarantee of it producing as per company statement, Otto and AED testify to that.:( Tui says otherwise :)

My way of thinking is CUE is a gambling stock, with lots of nice juicy things happening, which could multiply its price, but and we all know the buts.

Happy hunting Shrewd.!

[bermuda]

Hi Shrewd

Whats was Cue's cash backing per share last quarter ??? I think it will answer your question.

What will it be this quarter, we shall see this week most likely.???

Problems for CUE is the oil price is so low that last quarters oil sales in $ will be extremely low.
Multiply that by more money required for Maari because of long delays and interest payments.

And no guarantee of it producing as per company statement, Otto and AED testify to that.:( Tui says otherwise :)

My way of thinking is CUE is a gambling stock, with lots of nice juicy things happening, which could multiply its price, but and we all know the buts.

Happy hunting Shrewd.!

My feeling is that thare are more positives than negatives. CUE is a good bet....but not quite an investment.

[colinm_au]

Cash on hand = A$M 17.459

What is your point Tricha???

[Financially dependant]

Maari progressing well...
Rig workers employment negotiations settled...
Zues drilling progressing well.....
Oil stable, DOW and ASX up

[Crypto Crude]

tricha-
Hi Shrewd

1)Whats was Cue's cash backing per share last quarter ??? I think it will answer your question.

2)What will it be this quarter, we shall see this week most likely.???

3)Problems for CUE is the oil price is so low that last quarters oil sales in $ will be extremely low.

4)Multiply that by more money required for Maari because of long delays and interest payments.

5)And no guarantee of it producing as per company statement, Otto and AED testify to that.:( Tui says otherwise :)

6)My way of thinking is CUE is a gambling stock, with lots of nice juicy things happening, which could multiply its price, but and we all know the buts.

Happy hunting Shrewd.!


wow tricha... Im glad I asked you to explain your statement... we have a lot to discuss...:D....
first of all...

1)cues cash backing per share?...
well, the last cashflow update was for the quarter ended september 30th 2008...
here are the numbers from that report...
cash 17.459 million dollars... shares 628million...
cash per share of 2.8 cents...
not bad with a share price of 13.5cents...

2)what will it be this week?
Yes im very interested to see...
One thing though... CUE had massive exploration expenditure in the quarter ended 30th sept because of drilling expenditure on Cobra... which took forever... (successful discovery, money well spent)....
So in that quarter exploration costs of $7.941 million... and for the quarter just been, that was expected to drop to $2.6million dollars...
Development costs were set to increase 2.8million (Maari coming online)...
Holding all other expenses equal, we have a net decrease of cash costs of 2.51 million, (on exploration and development)...

This will help offset some of what you are saying in 3)

3)even if CUE earnt 10million dollars of revenues per quarter (40million per year), is still pretty ddaaamnn good for a company valued at 85million...
considering the fact that CUE's main wealth and leverage is held in its portfolio of proven assets... and developing projects...

4)Rising development costs are just apart of investing in this sector... its norm for every single company... Projects never come in under budget...
delays are norm in this industry.... Big assets, and higher discount rates of projects, makes up for all of that (and more) when we get the projects up and running (fact)... This is why the oil sector can have great returns...
I dont think this is a valid explanation tricha...
did tui have cost overruns? what about Kupe?

5)When I look back at AED in particular, and OEL... I realise that these companies were first time producers... and either had no JV partners, or JV partners who did not have the technical expertise to fix problems as they arose...

we are operating with the Todds, and OMV...
OMV is one of the largest oil companies in Europe... 2nd I think...
2008 sales of 19 billion Euros... 41,000 employees... oil producer... oil refiner... gas stations...
come on man.. this is like clock work for them...
they eat these project startups for breatkfast...
read the last update announcement... 1518m horizontal section drilled in entirely clean and oil bearing...

what about Todd Energy... produced 8 million barrels of oil in 2005 (BOE)....

These companies did not get to the size they are today through making mistakes...

6) far from a gambling stock mate...
We had revenues supporting a cashflow positive position at 3rd quarter last year... we have good cash... we are on the brink of production...
we have Oyong Gas coming up this year...
We are set to earn more in revenues than the market cap of the stock...

to add to CUE being a gambling play... I specifically choose CUE because of its list of Joint Venture partners in all its assets... The only real one of concern is the Northwest shelf farmin of Zeus, with MEO and RDI....
MEO have the technology but have not proven themselves with the drill bit yet...
CUE's partners include Santos, OMV, Todd Energy (and shareholder), Coogee Resources... Oil Search (big PNG play)... Beach Petroleum free carry... Singapore Petroleum...
CUE have a very strong Board....

BOPD set to ramp up to 35k... We have Manaia to tie in which could offset adverse production risks that some think we might have...

happy as here... It would hurt me to if you thought I was a gambler...
a gambler of market risk maybe...
Sometimes I gamble on stocks, never on a large position...
opps... I did make a play on MEO, but I studied the craap out of that and picked it to bits and was very confident of a discovery... I dumped the day that Heron flow test at a measley 5MMCF...
That was a very lucky day for me...
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

Great summary Shrewd.

One last question.

Shrewd - "1)cues cash backing per share?...
well, the last cashflow update was for the quarter ended september 30th 2008...
here are the numbers from that report...
cash 17.459 million dollars... shares 628million...
cash per share of 2.8 cents...
not bad with a share price of 13.5cents..."


Financing facilities available

Add notes as necessary for an understanding of the position.

Amount available
$A25,000,000
Amount used
$A17,681,000
3.2 Credit standby arrangements
- -
(i) Project finance for the Maari oil field development in the Taranaki
Basin, New Zealand. The facility is for US$20M with BOS
International (Australia) Limited, a part of the Bank of Scotland’s global
oil and gas business.

I'm not an accountant Shrewd, but do they have a loan for OZ $17,681,000, weird I could not see interest taken out for the last quarter if there was.?????????????

it's on page 10

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CUE&E=ASX&N=307591

[shasta]

Great summary Shrewd.

One last question.

Shrewd - "1)cues cash backing per share?...
well, the last cashflow update was for the quarter ended september 30th 2008...
here are the numbers from that report...
cash 17.459 million dollars... shares 628million...
cash per share of 2.8 cents...
not bad with a share price of 13.5cents..."


Financing facilities available
Add notes as necessary for an understanding of the position.
Amount available
$A25,000,000
Amount used
$A17,681,000
3.2 Credit standby arrangements
- -
(i) Project finance for the Maari oil field development in the Taranaki
Basin, New Zealand. The facility is for US$20M with BOS
International (Australia) Limited, a part of the Bank of Scotland’s global
oil and gas business.

I'm not an accountant Shrewd, but do they have a loan for OZ $17,681,000, weird I could not see interest taken out for the last quarter if there was.?????????????

it's on page 10

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CUE&E=ASX&N=307591

Very weird indeed, unless:

1. CUE are capitalising the interest as part of development costs?

2. Interest is paid & included in the loan draw down (unlikely the ASX would allow such shabby cashflow reporting)

3. Shrewd arranged the whole thing interest free :D

This was the initial ann re the finance...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CUE&E=ASX&N=277917

Probably #1

[Crypto Crude]

Tricha-

Great summary Shrewd.

One last question.

Shrewd - "1)cues cash backing per share?...
well, the last cashflow update was for the quarter ended september 30th 2008...
here are the numbers from that report...
cash 17.459 million dollars... shares 628million...
cash per share of 2.8 cents...
not bad with a share price of 13.5cents..."



Financing facilities available


Add notes as necessary for an understanding of the position.


Amount available
$A25,000,000
Amount used
$A17,681,000
3.2 Credit standby arrangements
- -
(i) Project finance for the Maari oil field development in the Taranaki
Basin, New Zealand. The facility is for US$20M with BOS
International (Australia) Limited, a part of the Bank of Scotland’s global
oil and gas business.

I'm not an accountant Shrewd, but do they have a loan for OZ $17,681,000, weird I could not see interest taken out for the last quarter if there was.?????????????

it's on page 10



Hey Tricha,
Obtaining debt is healthy for any business... Cue have a healthy amount of debt... This was required to get Maari off the ground...
Debt creates leverage for the firm, and for the shareholder (as their return on investment increases as debt increases) but also places more risk on the firm....Leverage through debt can be used to greatly enhance the value of the company.....
Also, debt raising is more preferrable to Placements as we are not diluted by a a larger amount of listed shares...
I think you are knit picking Tricha...
Interest recieved from 17million in bank cancels out most of interest paid for 17million dollar loan.... Whats your point?

Down the line CUE will make enough money in one week to pay for a whole years interest on its loan...
Money well obtained...

You know what its like, yourve been through the same thing with PPP...
Pan have 10% for 50Million barrels of oil...
CUE have 5% of 50 Million barrels of oil, likely to upgrade closer to 100million, and CUE have everything else... Some would say you are getting an unfair deal down the line ;)...
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

Hey Tricha,
Obtaining debt is healthy for any business... Cue have a healthy amount of debt... This was required to get Maari off the ground...
Debt creates leverage for the firm, and for the shareholder (as their return on investment increases as debt increases) but also places more risk on the firm....Leverage through debt can be used to greatly enhance the value of the company.....
Also, debt raising is more preferrable to Placements as we are not diluted by a a larger amount of listed shares...
I think you are knit picking Tricha...
Interest recieved from 17million in bank cancels out most of interest paid for 17million dollar loan.... Whats your point?

Down the line CUE will make enough money in one week to pay for a whole years interest on its loan...
Money well obtained...

You know what its like, yourve been through the same thing with PPP...
Pan have 10% for 50Million barrels of oil...
CUE have 5% of 50 Million barrels of oil, likely to upgrade closer to 100million, and CUE have everything else... Some would say you are getting an unfair deal down the line ;)...
:cool:
.^sc

Sorry Shrewd

Here is where we disagree.

Debt in this market is toxic.:( The rules have changed, so much so.
It is not like before where any company can make a mistake or two and ask for more cash and have your wishes granted.

Basically CUE have 0 cash per share backing. The only way, one is to survive this bear market from hell, is to leave no stone unturned or leave the market.

If Zeus comes in, you will be laughing all the way to China :) if not 10 cents till Maari comes good.


Shrewd -"1)cues cash backing per share?...
well, the last cashflow update was for the quarter ended september 30th 2008...
here are the numbers from that report...
cash 17.459 million dollars... shares 628million...
cash per share of 2.8 cents...
not bad with a share price of 13.5cents..."

[Crypto Crude]

Basically CUE have 0 cash per share backing

Tricha,
CUE has 2.8cents cash per share..Its not as simple as saying, oh well lets just minus debts from cash...for this company it is about having all possible funds available so we can continue to meet all our expenditure requirements of getting multiple projects into production... as we sure this path up, then attainable cash is less important as we enter natural growth phase...
im not going to tell you we are at that stage when we are not.... basically last year, we got cashflow positive when only pip sweakers of Oyong oil and SE gobe were in production... Now we are seriously going to start growing revenues, (even in this market) but it will take time... 20 months to get 3 further projects fully into production...
In 20months We will be talking about New growth phase as we develop other assets, and dont have to worry about cash again...
You are correct in part that debt is toxic…
Healthy debt is another story, when taking into account healthy projects...
Blue chips hold debt…. Large caps, medium and small caps hold it, households, consumers, we all hold it…
It is apart of you and I as if it were an arm or a leg…

The very basis of forming large contracts, unattainable natural growth through large project development, high cost drilling on a small springboard is impossible without raising some form of debt, or capital placement (which dilute our holdings)…… Im not denying that CUE have bitten off a big chunk by being expansive… its just like what NZO was a few years ago…

Come on Mate, you have not really come here to have a go at CUE have you?… It sounds like you have come here to question the foundations on which the oil industry is built on!

Tricha->
Let me break this down…
You started by having a go at CUEs cash backing per share (which is strong)…
You pointed to the downturn of oil prices effecting operating cashflows…
Which inpart was explained off by falling exploration costs…
You then babbled your way through Maari project delays, cost over runs impacting the company and interest on the Loan facility...
These are foundations of this industry… These practices are just apart of what we invest in... and especailly debt for companies with leverage that cant grow naturally without injections...

mate--->I hate the likes of taxes, and royalty payments… This is what it is...
Our oil create’s externalities which effect other people who do not directly consume that next barrel of oil.... so we have to pay for it…
You posted about your suspicions of Maari Production start up… you are entitled to that view with what we have seen over the last few years with other dubious production start ups….
You and the market have been very cautious on what will be a successful profitable project no matter what markets, or oil prices throw at us...
In this sector we invest in companies at different stages based on what we perceive they will be like in the future… All previous stocks I picked (apart from NZO), are now well below where they were when I first tipped them… This industry can be very fickle, as we invest in companies where information changes at any given time… In all those previous picks of mine, I sold and moved on when that information changed…

This might sound stupid, but I would feel cheated if I got bailed by Zeus hitting…
If it hits, I wont be jumping up and down... If CUE gets taken over, I wont feel like ive succeeded… Im going to proceed through this step by step, and theres lots happening...
Im happy for you and Pan… I dramatically changed my perception on the company when market info changed, (ie, when I realised what looked like unproactive management decisions infact were rather savvy)…
I just don’t have the financial backing to take advantage of all the opportunities that I see…
So instead I decided to have a punt on Central, and TEXO and try to hit big time, albeit small positions…
I was being greedy, because I should have just bought NZO last year and held it… I thought I could outperform that stock, and I did easy until I bought this company...

I will sell CUE in a heartbeat if I thought this were going the same route as previous (but yet profitable) stocks that I held…….Its just not the case this time… or at least it is not the case this time off current information/expected info…
That’s even with oil prices falling $80 US per barrel since I bought, before further cost overruns announced…before Delay after delay….
I cant be sure over the years if Ive been just plain lucky, or really smart……I cant be sure if ive really been able to affect the share price of a stock...
I know that many people have gotten into CUE and they should feel good about that... this is still the best oil stock Ive ever seen...
Time will tell where im headed with my calls…

I follow what I believe in, I get into stocks for a reason at that time… and I don’t sell until the asset change from when I first bought in…
im holding until im proven wrong (ie forced sale on asset quality turning bad), or proven right with profits…

Back me up buddy… If you want to have a go at the oil industry, or the current market situation then that’s ok….
I want to hear negatives… im open to opinions… Im not concerned about oil industry foundations impacting on CUE, because it will always be like this no matter what oil stock I hold, or no matter what type of market we are in…

Markets wont realistically rally for years and years…
CUE will perform…
Stock market fell so hard last year, that the real economy is still in catch up mode…

Happy hunting to you too Tricha…
Im going to catch myself a wild bore... cook it in the kitchen simmering with an old friend ‘mr future oil bull’... oh popa... hehehee....
I believe im positioned as good as I can be for my future...

If Zeus fails, then this is a screamer around 10cents...
...if that is to be our destiny...
post closer to the time...
peace out...

good luck all cuers...
we gamble on Zeus...
next week is the week....
:cool:
.^sc

[boysy]

FIRST oil from the offshore Taranaki, New Zealand Maari oil field is expected within the next five weeks as the jack-up Ensco Rig 107 finishes the first of five production wells and spuds the second.



Ensco 107 jack-up drilling rig

Sydney-headquartered minority partner Horizon Oil said on Friday evening that subsequent to the Ensco rig successfully batch drilling the surface holes for the first three production wells to depths of about 900m, it had now completed the MR3P8 well and skidded over to the next production well slot, MR4P9.

Horizon said the MR3P8 well was drilled to a depth of 2052m with a horizontal section drilled over 1518m in the upper part of the primary reservoir, the Moki reservoir formation.

On reaching the total depth of 3570m, the lower completion assembly, consisting of wire-wrapped screens, was installed into the open hole.

Subsequently, Horizon said, the upper completion assembly, containing the electric submersible pump and subsurface safety valve assemblies, was run on 6-5/8 inch tubing and stabbed into the lower completion.

Finally the heat tube, which is designed to prevent wax deposition in the tubing, was installed inside the completion string and terminated at the wellhead.

According to Horizon, the MR3P8 well is now being hooked up to the wellhead platform production facilities and will begin producing to the floating production, storage and offloading vessel, Raroa, later next month.

The company said production will ramp up towards the expected initial gross rate of 35,000 barrels per day, as the development wells are progressively drilled, hooked up to production facilities, and oil is pumped to Raroa.

The initial peak plateau in production should be achieved by August, the company added.

The Maari development, in mining licence PMP 38160, is scheduled to have a total of five production and three water injections wells.

Horizon late last year said anticipated final capital expenditure was about $US600 million ($A932 million).

The Maari partners are: operator Austrian firm OMV New Zealand (69%), Todd Energy (16%), Horizon (10%) and Cue Energy Resources (5%).

[Crypto Crude]

that was a crappy quarterly report...
a few good points in it...
the numbers came in below my expectation...

production costs increased... exploration costs above estimates...
revenues slashed because of falling oil prices...
but, oil prices have rallied abit...
Oyong Gas 54% complete and still on track for 3rd quarter production...
Maari first production expected 3rd week of Feb, so 20days away...
we need this online quickly...

I read ages ago that these horizontal oil producing wells are expected to flow at 5,000 BOPD...
5 of them makes 25,000 BOPD...
So I guess we wont have the full 35,000 BOPD until the Water injector wells are completed...
all in all, not good report today, but my overall sentiment remains the same as Maari starts to deliver we will start to grow cash pile...
Cost for Matariki well questionable now...
Next quarterly will add at least 500k to revenues from Maari first production well... 2nd well online in March....

costs up front, cash in the hand down the line...
:cool:
.^sc

[Dusty]

Cue lost 5 1/2 days due to cyclone Dominic and a seal failure on BOP.
Progress halted and drilling rig being secured due to another potential cyclone due thursday.
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00924431

[ELYOB]

Under current market and econ conditions , CUE appears to be ok ....2 weeks away from 35,000 USD flow from Maari , small but all is to build ?

If Zeus fails , we move onto a good time by July...

[LCM]

Wow, check out the Offer Depth. About 4 million stacked up on the offer at variouse levels. (Somebody trying to make the price look weak? Do I smell a takeover in the offing?)

[jdg]

nice thought, LCM, but i suspect it has more to do with the outlook of the price of oil and the direction the sp will go if zeus turns out to be a dud. with so many shares in so few hands, CUE is a very difficult takeover target. let's just cross our fingers that zeus comes up trumps.

-j

[Dusty]

Wow, check out the Offer Depth. About 4 million stacked up on the offer at variouse levels. (Somebody trying to make the price look weak? Do I smell a takeover in the offing?)

Trying to takeover CUE would be very difficult with Todd at 25% and Singapore at 15% even though that leaves 60% I can't really see it happening. In the short term if Zeus goes bad the sp in big trouble, I can't see the market valuing maari that highly in regards to sp with oil so low

[macduffy]

Trying to takeover CUE would be very difficult with Todd at 25% and Singapore at 15% even though that leaves 60% I can't really see it happening. In the short term if Zeus goes bad the sp in big trouble, I can't see the market valuing maari that highly in regards to sp with oil so low

Unless, of course, it were to be one of the major shareholders who has designs on the entire company!
But seriously, I doubt whether that's a goer either.

[Crypto Crude]

good points everyone...
Welcome to the boards LCM...
I agree with jdg...
This is not about takeover target... Getting bailed out is for cheaters...
hitting big target wells is for cheaters...
hehehe...
I wont be hootering and hollaring on Zeus.... its a big gamble and this is about what CUE currently has... not about What cue could have or what CUE does not currently have...

hey,
heres my intrepretation...

Delays at Zeus is good news as it reduces the time between Maari production, and hopefully limiting ultimate downside... I wont ramp zeus because of drilling risks but I will ramp Cue because of the 4 stages....
... very limited production stage risk...

In all respects to Tricha, he was exactly correct about the quarterly (in advance) but that that wont matter in a few months....
and it did not effect the share price on those results...

Cue is likely to require funds to support big shot Matariki.... That wont matter In all respects...as production stage will come in unhitched...

Lets hope the market has some common sense and factors in SOME future valuation on cashflows at least.... Id expect a placement to the todds without a cap raise... its all wait and see on what is required, or if its required depending on exact flow rate data...

My best recommendation is to wait on zeus results and BUY this upon failure around 10 cents and take your chances...a realist view, but not the best risk return view...gambling is in the eyes of the beholder...

some believe we are gambling...

I will call it now... if Zeus fails then there will be a double bottom at period lows of 9.2cents (there abouts)... and then we will trend up as production ramps up...
This bodes well on a TA perspective ( in advance)... but no analysis can predict the exact outcome to this big shot well...
as always im holding....
and wont sell until I see material change... I will sell on market at that time if I see dramatic changes occur... I highly doubt it other than oil prices ( looks like decent bottom).... or markets---> look oversold compared to real economy (most likely to worsen to those levels though)...
....
So thats about it... I dont have much to add to what has already been said, until Zeus results come...
peace out... and bank on fifty cent...
(his song "laughing straight to the bank on this")....
hehehe...
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

heres the link to 50 cent...
listen to the chorus...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKKIzDDWX64
:cool:
.^sc

[Dusty]

Richard Tweedie picked up 127,503 @ 13 ordinary fully paid shares.
Albers and Musca picked up 63,751 @ 13.
A good sign I think, having directors confident in CUE and invested in the company.
There does seem to be something interesting going on here though?

[Dusty]

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00925198
The link

[Corporate]

Richard Tweedie picked up 127,503 @ 13 ordinary fully paid shares.
Albers and Musca picked up 63,751 @ 13.
A good sign I think, having directors confident in CUE and invested in the company.
There does seem to be something interesting going on here though?


Wasn't it just part of the saving plan?

[Dusty]

Wasn't it just part of the saving plan?

Under nature of change: directors share saving plan
Yes your right

[Dusty]

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00925964

Drilling back on track after, as of 7.30am this morning we had reached 3,290m. Legendre sands should be reached at 3,455m within the next 24 hours. Exciting times for Cue and will be monitoring very closely.

[Financially dependant]

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00925964

Drilling back on track after, as of 7.30am this morning we had reached 3,290m. Legendre sands should be reached at 3,455m within the next 24 hours. Exciting times for Cue and will be monitoring very closely.

Thanks OD, I see we have gone passed the secondary target without mention, is that good or bad??

[Dusty]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090211/pdf/31fzx01g3g6qdg.pdf

Drilling has finished and reached 3,642m. We see an explanation for your question FD. Secondary target (forestier) does not appear to have resevoir properties.
At primary target legendre, muldog gas readings appear to have found something because of elevated levels (peak 165units) -3%, however nothing is confirmed and evaluations are ongoing.
Sounds promising on primary target, hopefully hydrocarbons present then were are in for a decent sp jump.

[Crypto Crude]

We have GAS...
A healthy 44m section ....
Further testing required to determine of what quality, and its productivity......
well derisked further...
DOW down real heavy in overnight trading...
CUE is a buy...

FD, todays ann of nothing in the secondary target would explain why there was no update yesterday.... ;)....
im holding all the way...
:cool:
.^sc

[upside_umop]

Welcome the Umop to the party...

In with a parcel at 11 cents with 97000 traded...still a couple more to go through...

[biker]

....."An expanded suite of formation evaluation tools will now be run to ascertain whether -ANY- moveable hydrocarbons are present at the Zeus-1 location".....


Doesn't sound too positive to me. The market doesn't seem impressed.

[Financially dependant]

Welcome the Umop to the party...

In with a parcel at 11 cents with 97000 traded...still a couple more to go through...

Welcome aboard Umop, nice timing...

So no secondary target but primary target has elevated gas readings in 44m of legendre sands...with massive acreage it all sounds good to me.

Wire logs to confirm, holding, waiting, holding through to at least Spikey Beach!!

Market still undecided......

[Crypto Crude]

Upside,
mate... yourve done well over the last year...
You bottom trawled and got in at 11c...

Hey biker,
It all depends on how you read the announcement...


these are the basic steps in completing a successful well...

step one--> Find something, hydrocarbons, gas readings, targeted sandstone, targeted formation...

step two--> testing it...

We have step one... now we go to step two...
without some sort of discovery or indication of one then theres no point moving on...
We have gas, but we need to know if its moveable, ie how much there is per unit of rock...
So its all still risky stuff as per usual, but this time I think MEO in particular is oversold at this stage...

3 reasons why MEO has fallen large...

1)LWD tool inconculsive
2)secondary target failure....
3)panic of selling pressure from the Mighty fall of the DOW last night

this is just starting to heat up...
could go either way...
On the forward curve, its a good time to buy CUE regardless of the outcome, with whats to come...

Hey, Im just heading out to the airport to drop some friends off...
will make a post this afternoon, evening if I have anything further to add...
:cool:
.^sc

[trackers]

Welcome the Umop to the party...

In with a parcel at 11 cents with 97000 traded...still a couple more to go through...

nice one umop, im looking to buy some more at 11 too today or tomorrow, having sold a few at 14c last time they pushed up

[jdg]

like shrewdy, i'm hanging in for production start up of maaori and others (and oil price recovery). zeus was a bonus roll of the dice. although it's clearly too early to tell, i don't have a great feeling about which way they are going to land. although i certainly hope i'm proven wrong.

-j

[Dusty]

Nothing in the company is suggesting sell to me with many projects coming up and oil so low. Zeus would be a healthy boost for Cue if it comes off, but if not thats the O&G game in exploration more failures than succesess. Language used to describe initial Muldog and LWD readings wasn't to optimistic but Cue has found Gas so Zeus is still up in the air and could go either way

[Crypto Crude]

deciphering drilling market announcements....

todays Zeus drilling report read great and not so great to start with, and worse as the day tracked along as the 3rd pointer of mine started to diminish in value...


3)panic of selling pressure from the Mighty fall of the DOW last night

this is a worthy point as I have only seen on a few occasions the DOW fall so much in % returns ever...
the fact that the downside on MEO might have spurred this....
panic and all that...........->>>>

I believe In a different market the stock would have gone in a different direction (to start with) and might have retraced and then some on further info......

Zeus was only 20-30% chance of success which was fair game, followed by positive releases which had negative pointers
lets list the positives and negatives... which id gone over....

positives...

Legendre sandstone within 5m 3d prediction (accurate)...
gas readings indicating further interpretation required...
large vertical reservoir section adding to horizontal width...
note--- it is the horizontal that makes this a monster target....ie the breadth or the full width of the structure...
3d seismics interprets a monster target and same as nearby fields...Perseus....
step one as I pointed out was a pass...

negatives....
LWD failure...factual or a story yet to be known....
secondary target failure...not announced until today, so delayed the truth.... is the truth being delayed now????
deciphering market reports...
market meltdown panic (which has subsided) as real facts should dominate, over market conditions...
factual results of the report which are shrowded by information yet unknown ....
lack of information....
is waiting on further testing a positive or a negative...
I'll wait and see...

all in all...


I would follow the market... and the market signals against my sentiment on CUE is correct over the short term, but wont be wrong over the long termmmmmmmmmmmmm... ive been up and down on Zeus before spud....

and I cant ignore what MEO's SP is doing...
Read my pointers on the MEO thread...

an exploration well free carried...
an irrational market based on what CUE has had to pay for it......
Its still not over...
I bank on fundamentals, and hope for a bailout on major success......
let us get lucky like others for once.......
let us hoot and hollar like Tricha...;)
or wait it out a few years for realisation or real worth...
I wont be selling until these proven resources are realised by the markets... and that maybe some time as per current market sentiment...
Zeus, Spikey.......
and Manaia and Bariweka to add real value to the company....
peace
:cool:
.^sc

[Oiler]

Welcome the Umop to the party...

In with a parcel at 11 cents with 97000 traded...still a couple more to go through...

Umop you Shrewd bugga !! ;);) well done.

Zeus could be the one we are looking for :D

Oiler

[Financially dependant]

Plugged and abandoned as planned??

Some strange terminology in this Ann....

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?E=ASX&S=MEO&N=313549

This makes CUE a good BOBN (buy on bad news) in play, which could be the reason sp not dropping to far (so far)!

[Crypto Crude]

oh well FD... What a fun couple of weeks it was...
;)...entertainment value...
MEO down over 50%...
CUE looking solid...

We have the assets to get us to one dollar over a period of years... So we didnt have to have Zeus come in... Zeus had to come in if we were to get rich this year...
Time to move on, and Wait for the other big target this year Matariki...
my friend Matariki...

First Maari production less than 2 weeks away...
:cool:
.^sc

[Financially dependant]

oh well FD... What a fun couple of weeks it was...
;)...entertainment value...
MEO down over 50%...
CUE looking solid...

We have the assets to get us to one dollar over a period of years... So we didnt have to have Zeus come in... Zeus had to come in if we were to get rich this year...
Time to move on, and Wait for the other big target this year Matariki...
my friend Matariki...

First Maari production less than 2 weeks away...
:cool:
.^sc


Sure was entertaining.... following MEO thread on HC was a real hoot (still is):).

Now looking forward.......

[trackers]

Picked up a whole bunch today... Tbh it was fairly obvious (imo) that the 'find' was going to be subeconomic and that was wholly considered in the purchase

[Dusty]

Zeus is done, sp is holding steady as you said Shrewd unlike MEO who when reaching 30c had already factored in a successful Zeus.
Matariki going ahead mid 2009, but latest update I could find was Nov 2008, anyone got a more recent update?

[colinm_au]

Not surprising that MEO is down so much - They were paying ALL the costs of the well ... Disappointing CUE is down as much !

[JBmurc]

Well I'm gutted I didn't take the profit at 16c when I had a the chance still holding at 12.5c longer term should still make abit

[Dusty]

Well I'm gutted I didn't take the profit at 16c when I had a the chance still holding at 12.5c longer term should still make abit

Yeah Cue didn't have such a clear BESBS play because of the Maari worker union dispute which kept prices at 16.5 peak unlike MEO. I underestimated the effect it would have, march 2009 most recent settle for US LS crude is sub $34.00 so short term may see CUE SP stagnant but I agree with 12.5 entry also for me CUE will be profitable longer term

[trackers]

But of a ho-hum announcement today, CUE drifting on lack of interest. Would have liked to see a slightly fuller calendar tbh, but this year should still be great for CUE.

Hope to see interest ramp up considerably as Maari starts producing the good stuff (shortly!!)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CUE&E=ASX&N=313769

[LCM]

I get worried when I see small companies advertising themselfs like this. Some sort of capital raising could be in the offing?

[Oiler]

I get worried when I see small companies advertising themselfs like this. Some sort of capital raising could be in the offing?

LCM do you know something <capital raising> ???? I wouldnt have thought CUE needed to raise capital ???
Oiler

[shasta]

LCM do you know something <capital raising> ???? I wouldnt have thought CUE needed to raise capital ???
Oiler

Oiler

I'd imagine this is what he is inferring...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CUE&E=ASX&N=313769

These presentations do seem to coincide with capital raisings...

[ScrappyO]

I get worried when I see small companies advertising themselfs like this. Some sort of capital raising could be in the offing?

Maybe they want to buy some of shells assets in New Zealand.:D

[Crypto Crude]

I havent had time to read the latest presentation... id presume it is the same styled preso eah...
The last quarterly report anticipated deep quarterly expenditure (for the current quarter)...
oiler, I will have a look and post my thoughts tomorrow...
theres no concern IMO about debts, or cash..... we have healthy debt, and Id presume that the SP's will run quickly on production,
and positive cashflow is delivered to the market...

theres little value being added to CUE with its forward large revenues, and asset development...
right now the market is all scared about healthy debt, and negative cashflow...
great buying opportunity...
I said that the SP would fall to period lows upon failure at Zeus...
and now the SP must be looking up from here...
:cool:
.^sc

[croesus]

Agree with you Shrewd..... have decided that now is a good time to start buying distressed Oilers... ( distressed as in S/P.. not neccesarily function).. so have this last week been purchasing CUE... TEX....VPEO...QPN.... not sure about NZ Oil and Gas.. as I suspect it may get seriously pear shaped at Pike.. which should drag the parent down.. hence I will wait..on NOG.. had some PPP but sold them a few weeks ago... but will buy back if S/P erodes much more.
Also hold WID, WEN, HGD, HTM, and other non mining stocks.

[jdg]

when are we expecting first oil from maaori? it can't be too far away now. should be a matter of days, yeah?

-j

[Crypto Crude]

read this when you have 10mins spare...
Cash balance prediction for quarter ended 31st March 2009...

A forward snapshot in time dated 31st March 2009 off information dated at 31st 12th 2008...
info provided, estimated costs (unless I state otherwise), and figures come from the last quarterly report...

cash balance at 31st of Dec- $12.97 million
Loan Available less used amount leaves $8.485m (28.985m-20.5m)
add them up gives a balance of $21.455m available funds...
add in revenues expected for this current quarter... estimate of $7m (not including Maari)...
Revenue for 4th quarter 2008 was $7.65m and im assuming further decline of Oyong oil production...
makes attributable cash plus existing production of $28.455m dollars...

Maari,
Two wells coming onto production (should be next week)...im assuming initial production off two wells at 5000 BOPD each... so 10,000 BOPD total, 5% gives us 500 BOPD...
Maari oil fetches around Brent benchmark... less than Tapis...
a few weeks ago we were looking at Maari oil priced around $50US per barrel... so what $45 US now...

$45/.64 (exchange rate)....gives us $70 AUS barrels * 30 days left in the quarter (assuming first production 1st March) * 500 BOPD= $1.05 M

(with oil at $50 US, and 40days of production for this quarter makes that $1.56m)...

previous availble cash balance of $28.455m + $1.05m= $29.505m...
insignificant others (interest recieved 80k)...

Expenses...
estimated expenses from the quarterly ending 31st March 2009.

anticipated development costs for the current quarter of $13.058M
Exploration costs of 979k
Admin expenses (estimated) 700k
Production costs (a wild guess I wouldnt have a clue) $5m...
(last quarterly was $4.2m)...
add them up gives... $19,737,000 M expenses...

total cash on hand, available, and expected revenues less expected expenses ($29.505m-$19.737m) leaves us with $9.76million available at 31st March 2009...

what do I think...?

CUE probably wont need to raise cash but we dont know, a further delay of production (not very likely)...
The quarterly after this one will have 3 months of Maari production (not one month),
and a third well tied in during March adding 250 BOPD...
one well tie in per month adding 250 per month...(give or take)....
Also Oyong Gas production in 3rd quarter, which will add long term yearly income of 15million (and upwards (hoping)) from 3rd quarter....
Then Manaia Tie in...
Then Wortel Gas with similar revenue targets to Oyong Gas...
30-40m all up from the two gas developments per year for the long term...
Then maybe Matariki tie in...

This company is a future cash cow...
Money always gets reinvested back into the business, so we can get further projects off the ground as we chip away at the mammoth 57 Million Barrels BOE... These initial production targets are required to get to real riches...
Through Cash Maple, PNG, further exploration coming ... further appraisal...
big time PNG 5 years away...

This company will do well in a low oil priced market...

Hey...
check this out....

for a 10k AUS investment...
you get
100,000 shares out of a total of 628,000,000
multiply that by 57m BOE...
gives you an interest of 9080 Barrels of oil equilivant (in the ground and proven) for a $10,000 AUS investment....

Thats a bloody good investment, considering earnings will protect the downside...

Negatives...
debt of 20m (albiet healthy)...
Delays are punished... but delays dont change the story they only delay the story (if you know what I mean)....
last quarterly report was an absolute disaster...
market conditions...
oil price weakness, although forward curve is set....
current negative cashflow....

If you can put aside some these factors, which will change to the other extreme over the next 2 years, and the fact that soon to be company events will turn this around... then ask yourself "how do you sleep at night knowing assets are rolling out the door for cents in a dollar"...
hahahaha....
this is for real....
No bull....you are buying Barrels in the ground for one buck here at CUE...
and the large revenue projection curve...

2 years ago, this stock would be trading at 30cents now given the current company financial position and company project outlook...

Ive never been more happy...
A fairytale dream...

This is my outlook...
and My thoughts...
This may come across as cock and bull...
but it is very real...
hence the reason why CUE is my only position on the sharemarket...

All the best everyone...

DYOR...
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

opps...
I forgot to add that CUE are commited to funding 30% of Matariki for a 20% stake...
30-40million to drill the well?
so $10 million commitment required October/November...
:cool:
.^sc

[bermuda]

opps...
I forgot to add that CUE are commited to funding 30% of Matariki for a 20% stake...
30-40million to drill the well?
so $10 million commitment required October/November...
:cool:
.^sc

Shrewdy,

CUE will be Okay but why don't you put half your money on BOW?

I try to look after my mates.

[tobo]

Shrewdy,

CUE will be Okay but why don't you put half your money on BOW?

I try to look after my mates.

Heh, heh, and I was thinking VPE instead of BOW since BOW now costs 45c.

Here I am holding VPE and BOW and looking at getting a bit of another oiler (like maybe CUE) for a bit of diversification.

CUE is nearer to the cashcow phase (as a business).

ToBo

[Crypto Crude]

Ive heard that Maari First production started up this weekend...Or was going to start up over the weekend... should be an announcement early next week...
Low risk chance oF production problems given the quality oF our Joint Venture partners...

ps, I can only type the letter F... iF it is a capital... hehehehe...
silly computer...:D
:cool:
.^sc

[Financially dependant]

Ive heard that Maari First production started up this weekend...Or was going to start up over the weekend... should be an announcement early next week...
Low risk chance oF production problems given the quality oF our Joint Venture partners...

ps, I can only type the letter F... iF it is a capital... hehehehe...
silly computer...:D
:cool:
.^sc

Thanks Shrewdie.. That will be a nice start to the week if ann comes out and the little lift of the oil price will only help!

We missed your $$$$ hat at the Dux yesterday, maybe next time if you are still in the country.

[Corporate]

Ive heard that Maari First production started up this weekend...Or was going to start up over the weekend... should be an announcement early next week...
Low risk chance oF production problems given the quality oF our Joint Venture partners...

ps, I can only type the letter F... iF it is a capital... hehehehe...
silly computer...:D
:cool:
.^sc

Where do you get this info from SC?

[Crypto Crude]

hey corporate,
Patience my Friend...
I cant give up my source,
but we are there...
I reckon we are already in production....
could be a couple more days...
Market risk hedge on this news...
losing time, not losing money....
yeah harggghhh...
:cool:
.^sc

[Corporate]

hey corporate,
Patience my Friend...
I cant give up my source,
but we are there...
I reckon we are already in production....
could be a couple more days...
Market risk hedge on this news...
losing time, not losing money....
yeah harggghhh...
:cool:
.^sc

Haha I see. Are you buying more at these levels?

[Crypto Crude]

corporate-Haha I see. Are you buying more at these levels?
I would be but I bought many at 21.6 at the top of the market when oil was $130....
it looked that bloody good... and still does...
hahaha....
got some off market funds but prob just hold onto them...

Hey below is a chart of CUE in the red and HZN in blue...
HZN has had a triple bottom...
CUE has a double bottom...


http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/imageChart.axd?s=cue&pi=Stock&ct=3&tf=D3&ovs=hzn&si=Stock&tima1=0&tima2=0&bi=2&bima=0&comt=code&ds=cue&dovs=hzn&val=1&stmp=20090223065406269
:cool:
.^sc

[JBmurc]

I see in the latest Oil & Gas weekly JC believes CUE will need to raise some funds to meet their drilling obligations going forward could be why some holders have exited scared by a cheap cap raising in a tight credit market
Still JC believed STX would make a loss for the yr of 4mill+ then STX annouced a small nett 1.7mill profit
may have to pick up some more CUE under 10c for my longer term portfilo now as oil will rise again.

[Financially dependant]

Today would be a good day to announce the start of production!!!

Looking for a strong rebound???

[LCM]

Well, there it is. See HZN for announcment.

61M barrels 2P, isnt that a bit higher than previously forecast? Production just getting under way now.

[Crypto Crude]

thanks LCM....
can you please post the full market announcement...
I cant open it... cheers...
:cool:
.^sc

[LCM]

Sorry Governor.

Can't get it to work. Try the ASX website if you can't access it.

[Financially dependant]

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=HZN&E=ASX&N=208101

Ann link...:)

[LCM]

Looks as though the markets ignoring this news at the moment. HZN had the offer taken out at 13c, but no follow through. hmmm.
Just the way things are at the moment I suppose.

[Crypto Crude]

hey FD,
Our flat recently got a silly lap top, my flatmate borrowed it from a firend for a few months...and it doesnt open up market releases (acrobat)...
so if you could post the actual content here, that would be appreciated...
remember the F last week... hahaha... thats fixed now...;)...
:cool:
.^sc

[jdg]

sorry, shrewdy, can't seem to do it. will keep trying until someone beats me to it. very frustrating for you.

-j

[boysy]

25 February 2009
The Manager, Company Announcements
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bridge Street
Sydney NSW 2000
HORIZON OIL (HZN): MAARI DEVELOPMENT DRILLING UPDATE – 25 Feb 09
Horizon Oil Limited advises further good progress on the development drilling program
since the last drilling update provided to shareholders on 23 January 2009. In that
update it was reported that the first oil production well, the MR3P8, had been
successfully drilled and equipped for production. The MR3P8 has now been hooked up
to the production facilities and final preparations are underway to flow first oil to the
FPSO Raroa.
Since the last update, the second production well, the MR4P9, was drilled to a depth of
1,950 m and 10-3/4” casing run to 1,946 m. The Ensco 107 rig was then skidded to the
third production well location, the MR5P12, the well drilled to a depth of 2,090 m and
10-3/4” intermediate casing set at 2,085 m. At this point, the mud system was changed
from water-based to synthetic oil-based and the rig skidded back to the MR4P9 slot.
The 9-½” horizontal section of the MR4P9 was drilled to a total measured depth of
4,323 m. The lower completion assembly consisting of wire-wrapped screens was
successfully installed in the horizontal section, of which over 2,000 m was good quality,
oil-filled reservoir. Subsequently the upper completion assembly was run on 6-5/8”
tubing and the heat-tube installed. The MR4P9 will now be hooked up to the
production facilities, prior to commencing production to the FPSO scheduled for the
second week of March.
The rig completed operations on MR4P9 at 2200 hrs on 23 February 2009 and skidded
back to the third production well slot in the current phase, MR5P12, where drilling of
the 9-½” horizontal completion section is underway.
The Maari Oil Field is located in PMP 38160, in the offshore Taranaki basin, New
Zealand. Oil production will ramp up towards the expected initial gross rate of 35,000
barrels of oil as the development wells are progressively drilled and turned to the FPSO.
The proven and probable (2P) production profile forecasts recoverable volumes of 61
million barrels of oil from the Moki reservoir over the 22 year term of the Petroleum
Mining Permit.
The participants in the development are:-
Horizon Oil International Limited
(a wholly owned subsidiary of Horizon Oil Limited) 10%
OMV New Zealand Limited 69%
Todd Maari Limited 16%
Cue Taranaki Pty Ltd 5%
Yours faithfully,
B D Emmett
Chief Executive Officer
For further information please contact:
Mr Brent Emmett
Telephone: (+612) 9332 5000
Facsimile: (+612) 9332 5050
Email: exploration@horizonoil.com.au
Or visit www.horizonoil.com.au

[Financially dependant]

hey FD,
Our flat recently got a silly lap top, my flatmate borrowed it from a firend for a few months...and it doesnt open up market releases (acrobat)...
so if you could post the actual content here, that would be appreciated...
remember the F last week... hahaha... thats fixed now...;)...
:cool:
.^sc

I will try attaching ann...

good to the ffff's back in order :)

Can you see the ann, sorry very low tech..

[Crypto Crude]

thanks team CUE...
Read strong IMO...
I will make some comments tonight...

well there we have it, the first of many reserves upgrades...
barely a surprise...;)...
:cool:
.^sc

[trackers]

hey FD,
Our flat recently got a silly lap top, my flatmate borrowed it from a firend for a few months...and it doesnt open up market releases (acrobat)...
so if you could post the actual content here, that would be appreciated...
remember the F last week... hahaha... thats fixed now...;)...
:cool:
.^sc

Uninstall that hopeless Acrobat crap and download this:

http://www.foxitsoftware.com/pdf/rd_intro.php

(though uncheck the optional Ask.com and Ebay toolbars when you install)

[Financially dependant]

Uninstall that hopeless Acrobat crap and download this:

http://www.foxitsoftware.com/pdf/rd_intro.php

(though uncheck the optional Ask.com and Ebay toolbars when you install)

Thanks trackers,

Is this any good for converting pdf's to word doc's??

sorry to be off topic!

[trackers]

Thanks trackers,

Is this any good for converting pdf's to word doc's??

sorry to be off topic!

Unfortunately not :( But you can output the pdf as a text file which can then be read by word.

Acrobat Professional edition might do it but thats not a common piece of software to have

[jdg]

first oil announced by CUE this afternoon. let's hope it's all flowing well. also, i note the discrepancy between CUE (50m barrels over 10-15 years) and HZN (61m barrels on 22 years).

it would have been so nice to have this oil flowing a few months back when oil prices were so high, nevertheless, they will recover with the world economy...eventually. this should be the start of a profitable ride with CUE.

-j

[Crypto Crude]

Hey hey hey….
So first production well was completed for production on the 22nd jan...
3 days ago…
I wont comment on markets taking part in the delay of this announcement…
a relaxing time none the less and we clear a path for our future....
I dont give a cook a hoot about the markets, about the real economy...
we are in to making a hiding second to noe regardless of what happens from here.... If the World burns in a firey pit of doom, then so be it...
CUE, NZO, AWE, PPP, and a few others will survive...

As always we have a World class project that is spear headed by OMV and the Todds…… this point was always missed by unsuspecting guests, which gave a much lower real risk.... but the market has, and still attaches a much higher level of risk....
So no need to swing a nut sack like my mate George in the jungle…
Hahahhaa…..
Anyway,
We have the first well, MR3P8 on production testing,(without actual flow rates of yet)...
You can see in the HZN attachment the FPSO in the distance, which will store oil until an oil tanker makes a pick up for delivery…

We have the 2nd production well MR4P9, in 2km of oil bearing reserviour (horizontal) completed and with initial production 2nd week of March…

Currently we are on the 3rd horizontal section of the 3rd production well MR5P12…

HZN announced an official upgrade of reserves from 50 Million Barrels of oil 2P…
To 61 million Barrels of oil 2P…

A 22% increase…

Great news…
no shock at all… Earth Quake flat lining as far as im concerned…
This is a given based on what we have previously said on this thread…
Tui is a pip sweaker on the fact that 2P reserves are now larger than that field, and only in the Moki formation is accounted for.... we have Manaia, M2A, (17m moveable oil) and Mangahewa (30m oil column) with a gas cap for further testing… Matariki coming in OCT DEC which could add 20 Million barrels of oil to CUE... and we had our recent excitement which turned up chumps....

In terms of oil and gas investment in New Zealand, you will see nothing like this for possibly decades to come in the form of leveraged upside to an oil field in a small oil stock... a large oil field listed in the form of a company on the NZX/ASX... a large surrounding area on ridge providing further upside....
the largest undeveloped oil field in NZ (before this development took place)...
Nothing like this company ever when you look at other stages and other activites... its uncomparable....



Tui has ultimate upside…
So far Maari’s increase on reserves are from natural infield resource (not even based on flow rates), and Sure thing (im telling you again) sure thing Manaia upside….
What I said was Tui’s greater production profile would have Maari offset this through bigger reserves…
so some cancellation...
Our Barrels recieve lower price but we have more of them, flowing at lower volumes, and in full production in August (so more time to ramp up to bigger prices)....… we hopefully get a small window at the next leg up, Matariki providing the Big "oh daddy" in the wings....


it would have been so nice to have this oil flowing a few months back when oil prices were so high, nevertheless, they will recover with the world economy...eventually. this should be the start of a profitable ride with CUE.

The World economy wont recover anytime soon mate…
We are sitting on a future cash cow, and a current asset cash cow...… A large stable oil project now in production… recent productions… large real in ground assets… appraisals left right and center…
Exploration blah blah blah… developments growing horns out your ears...
Ear wax putting bees out of business... hahahaha....
and a growth path even at current prices...

Yeah Bermuda is right about BOW...
Man... hes right about alot of things....
this is it in the real form...

no takeovers... no buy outs... no new stakeholders... no company fundamental related market swings, ie industry related activity....

We have no suitors coming to bail us out… There are no White Knights coming to tell us that we have exceptional assets… Tricha said his companies are looking for assets cents in the dollar… His companies cant be looking in the right direction… hahahahha
His companies are secure on fundamentals… This company is building them and securing a future just like his, even at these prices... it will take time though...…
Timing is everything, and my timing was wrong… But will be right !!!…
And I will be laughing straight to the bank on this…
and im sure he will be too....

As Ive said… those who were sceptical of Maari production, will be left wondering….
those who were wondering are now thankful for that as the SP is cheaper... dont let this slip by....

NZO took 6 months to really lift off after Tui… This could take a few months…
we have an ultimate path of low risk production startups from here to really get cash booming, so the 'healthy debt' and cashflow negative can take the back seat as far as im concerned...
Buy CUE...

Medium term and long term Profit outlook on the cards...
If your after a short term mega bagger then you could be looking in the wrong direction...
patience as always...
never seen it better than this as far as im concerned...
might need a cap raise... blah blah blah...
On path to secure a whopper and we aint even at burger king...
yeah harrghhh...
as always ,we lose time we dont lose money...
10c is offensive....
bids at 10c fair considering....
:cool:
.^sc

[trackers]

Wow, how do you follow that? I dunno, but things are looking great. First oil coupled with 5% increase in POO across the board is a great end to my week

[Financially dependant]

Wow, how do you follow that? I dunno, but things are looking great. First oil coupled with 5% increase in POO across the board is a great end to my week

Yes indeed, Shrewd is the dude :cool:!

Nice bit of publicity this morning in the Herald...

49,999,999 barrels of oil to go

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10558792

[CAM]

and some more on stuff...
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4860138a13.html

[Crypto Crude]

strong open coming...

FD, back to 21cents this year......

... Ive stood by companies through the highs, this time im doing it the other way around, sticking by this stock through the lows.....im adamant... Ive taken a real beating mate on this position due to the market............ Unless I see change then im afraid I will have to keep holding this stock...
yeah harrgghhh...

We will hold until Oyong Gas and Matariki, and wait a month or two further on Bariweka if it is planned to come...
Soon I will provide more deeper research on PNG, Cash Maple, and CUE's gas assets and think about the tradeoff between time and other opportunities... for the next few months its all about Maari, so lets relax knowing we are going in the right direction...
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

talking to my mate Jim on the phone tonight who's been to a few sharetrader meetings.... We reckon they have so many engineers, that they are using the excess supply as cooks in the kitchen...
oil on toast... hahaha....

Man... I cant believe it... 2 years ago CUE would have been inching 40cents now at these oil prices/debt levels/etc..
today we are struggling to breach 10cents...
first oil... and upgrade... info that we already knew was coming... info that should rerate the company no doubt... info that really didnt change the sp...
its so sick..
tired of being so right in the wrong market... hahaha....

thought today that CUE was going to go for alittle run... up 5%... prrrfffttttt.... HZN did well today...

Man... im probably starting to sound desperate here, so im going to back off and let mr market do the talking...
give ramp where ramps due...and trust me... its due here....
geezz.... no love for a stock that pretty much has everything...

the two off putters, debt (albiet healthy debt), and negative cashflow, sorted out in a few months...

There has to be a floor on the sp at 10cents...


Arrgghhhh.... somebody... please do yourself a favour and make some money...congratulations to you if your pockets are stuffed full...
Everything ive said is out there to be read...

We will be laughing after Manaia when we have more oil, and drilling another exciting prospect that could get us north of 50cents alone...
early stages of oil reserves upgrades
peace out and later all...
:cool:
.^sc

[Ketel One]

Maari oil is looking pretty cheap. Fun calculation:

628 239 007 (CUE Shares) / 3 050 000 (CUE's 5% of 61MMbls 2P Maari) = 206 shares / barrel.

206 * 10c (current CUE SP) = $20.60AUD = $13.35USD / barrel.

[Corporate]

Maari oil is looking pretty cheap. Fun calculation:

628 239 007 (CUE Shares) / 3 050 000 (CUE's 5% of 61MMbls 2P Maari) = 206 shares / barrel.

206 * 10c (current CUE SP) = $20.60AUD = $13.35USD / barrel.

You should include debt in the calculation, plus how much it costs to lift it.

SC - What is your take on the different project life and also difference 2p reserves annouced by HZN and CUE?

[tobo]

watching technicals - RSI & Slow stochastic have buy signals.
Watching for possible imminent:
- break sp downtrend
- MACD may go positive
- OBV might flatten and go positive

<a href="http://www.findata.co.nz/Markets/StockQuote/ASX/CUE.htm">
<img src="http://chart2.findata.co.nz/?e=ASX&s=CUE&p=D&n=180&w=560&h=800&l=1&vol=1&i=MACD-OBV-RSI-SStoch&ma=25&sc=1" style="border:0px solid black; width:560px; height:800px" />
</a>

ToBo. Not holding CUE (but thinking about it). BOW,VPE,NWE,RFE

[trackers]

POO up another 5% today, two healthy rises in two days (Brent = USD$45)... Good timing

[boysy]

im not sure a reserves increase has actually happened guys as pointed out by others hzn has always stated that figure as the reserve estimate and cue has used an entirely different number. The question has to be asked why is there a difference ?

[trackers]

Not too exciting, but I notice that buying interest is outweighing selling interest for the first time in a while.. 1.6m vs 1.3m

[Financially dependant]

Not too exciting, but I notice that buying interest is outweighing selling interest for the first time in a while.. 1.6m vs 1.3m

Yes I was looking at the buying depth too, another good day of over 1 mill share traded would put a hole in the sellers side and hopefully an appreciation of SP.

This seems to be the way the charts are looking too, a bit of resistance to get through at these levels.

[Crypto Crude]

SC - What is your take on the different project life and also difference 2p reserves annouced by HZN and CUE?


hey corporate,
its not good having JV partners reporting different info...

increased reserves did not come as a shock or anything like that...
it was well known that reserves upgrades were coming....
maybe not so soon though...
It all came in a rather untactiful way...
its not good...

As for the actual upgrade, it is unquestionable the authenticity of it...
theres some ASIC law prohibiting the release of fraudulent market information...

would have been better to have had the JV release it together... oh well...
HZN's got to look after number one... So they have to do what they have to do to secure funds...

We know that oil reserves will trend closer to 100 Million barrels recoverable than 50M barrels... and thats all I need to know...
This was the edge I was suppost to have...

My ramping is not senseless... it does carry a point...

The fact that the main field has had two oil discoveries in zones other than the moki formation (which is current development reserves).... and then we have Manaia.... 3 upside shots...
recent upgrade was of Moki reserves only...
so still 3 shots at further upgrades...
blah blah blah... re read the thread...

Dont worry about the market, the market is not worried about you...
So the fact that it was delivered to the market the wrong way doesnt really change anything...
The only thing that bothers me is the actual performance of the field...

I know the fields got 80 Million barrels at least (current reserves plus Manaia)... so who cares what mr market is told, who cares what mr market knows (must not know much) hehehehehe...

PPP have 10% of 50M Barrels... Cue will have 5% of close to 100M barrels...

Pan have nothing else...

CUE has everything else, and a bag of Chips...

hope that helps...
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

boysy-im not sure a reserves increase has actually happened guys as pointed out by others hzn has always stated that figure as the reserve estimate and cue has used an entirely different number. The question has to be asked why is there a difference ?



hey boysy,
HZN mentioned reserves upgrades many times... but I dont think they made them official...ie 2P....
if you can see anywhere HZN had previously reported 60 Million barrels 2P, then post it here please...
this was a report mid way through last year with official reserves at that time of 50m barrels...
HZN had been saying similar things to this...



New Zealand’s Maari production lease may contain almost 75% more recoverable oil than the 50 MMbbl on which the final investment decision was based, according to an independent analyst’s report for minority partner Horizon Oil.
Australian investment group Wilson HTM said in its report that the greater Maari area in the offshore Taranaki Basin, which incorporates the Maari and Manaia prospects, has an updip potential that could increase the field’s current reserves of 50 MMbbl to about 87 MMbbl.
Wilson HTM believes the upside potential from the M2A sands zone above the main Moki sands structure at Maari is about 12 MMbbl.
It adds that the latest interpretation of the nearby Manaia prospect, about 10 km southwest of Maari, indicates an upside potential of about 25 MMbbl.
Both updip figures were calculated as a gross mean recoverable reserves potential, Wilson HTM said.
Its report also says studies of 3D seismic data show the original 1970 Manaia prospect discovery well, Maui-4, was drilled off-crest.
Maui-4 discovered an under-saturated oil accumulation in poor quality Mangahewa Formation sands that tested 575 bopd. Two small Moki accumulations were also found in the Maui-4 well.
The partners, headed by operator Austrian firm OMV, are scheduled to use the jack-up Ensco Rig 107 to drill eight Maari development wells (five production and three water injection) later this year.
Wilson HTM said the Maari partners were also due to appraise the Manaia and M2A zones using the Ensco 107. Manaia had the potential as a subsea tie-back to the Maari production facilities of an unmanned platform and the floating, production storage and offtake (FPSO) vessel Raroa.
“AVO and inversion work also suggests that reservoir quality and/or hydrocarbon saturation may improve updip from Maui-4”, Wilson HTM said.
OMV and partners approved the A$399 MM development of Maari in late 2005, with first oil from the 50 MMbbl field scheduled for late 2008 and a production plateau of about 35,000 bopd achieved several months later. Overall project costs have since increased to at least $A520 MM.
Total field production is expected to decline by about 25-30% per year. The Maari partners are operator OMV NZ (69%), Horizon Oil (10%), Todd Petroleum Mining (16%) and Cue Energy Resources (5%).

:cool:
.^sc

[jdg]

i think we need two things to happen before we see a re-rate upwards. firstly, we need to hear that oil is flowing as planned from the first production wells. secondly, it would be good to have the persistent rumours about cap raisings cleared up.

if the first point occurs, and oils flows smoothly, and the price of oil stays at or above current levels, then the chance of cap raising is clearly reduced. then we will see some good sp action.

-j

[jdg]

also, can anyone update me on what the story with spikey beach is? has the drill been rescheduled?

-j

[Ketel One]

also, can anyone update me on what the story with spikey beach is? has the drill been rescheduled?

-j

They mentioned it in the last quarterly (http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090129/pdf/31frl07q4m9q3s.pdf):

T/38P Bass Basin – Tasmania (50% interest)
Operator: Cue Energy Resources Limited
The West Triton jack up drilling rig moved onto the Spikey Beach -1 location in early December 2008. Rapid, uneven leg penetration was experienced while attempting to jack up. The rig was unable to safely complete jacking up and was moved from the location.

The West Triton has subsequently been demobilized to Singapore and Beach Petroleum is seeking another more suitable drilling rig to drill the Spikey Beach -1 well. Beach retains the obligation to drill the well at no cost to Cue.

[jdg]

thanks, mate.

-j

[Financially dependant]

Hey Shrewdie...:cool:

Any updates from your insider about CUE's production at Maari??

I have been looking forward to the flow rates, seems they might be waiting until all 3 production wells are hooked up and flowing???

[Oiler]

Hey Shrewdie...:cool:

Any updates from your insider about CUE's production at Maari??

I have been looking forward to the flow rates, seems they might be waiting until all 3 production wells are hooked up and flowing???

FD

I think they are having problems ;) I look forward to hearing there production announcement

Oiler

[Financially dependant]

FD

I think they are having problems ;) I look forward to hearing there production announcement

Oiler

Thanks Oiler, I hope the production is announced soon.. CUE seems to be in limbo until the oil is flowing to finance it's commitments....

[macduffy]

FD

I think they are having problems ;) I look forward to hearing there production announcement

Oiler

What's the reason for this ?

Any local rumours or are you just guessing?

;)

[Oiler]

What's the reason for this ?

Any local rumours or are you just guessing?

;)

Local rumours, nothing is secret in a small town.

[STRAT]

Announcement coming. If this is goood the timing couldnt be better :D

[Financially dependant]

Announcement coming. If this is goood the timing couldnt be better :D

Hi Strat, on the money...ann is good too :)



HORIZON OIL (HZN): MAARI DEVELOPMENT DRILLING UPDATE – 11 Mar 09



Horizon Oil Limited advises further good progress on the development drilling program

since the last drilling update provided to shareholders and the announcement of first oil

flows on 25 February 2009. In those releases it was reported that the first oil production

well, MR3P8, had been hooked up to the production facilities and was flowing oil to the

FPSO Raroa. In was also reported that the second production well, MR4P9, had been

drilled and equipped for production and was awaiting hook-up.



The Company is pleased to advise that the MR3P8 well is currently flowing clean oil on

natural flow (not on pump) at a rate in excess of 10,000 bopd to the FPSO through a

choke 26% open. The 100 hour performance test of the FPSO was successfully

completed on 8 March.



The MR4P9 well was brought on stream on 9 March and, although still in clean-up

mode, is on natural flow and exhibiting similar flow characteristics to MR3P8.



The third production well, MR5P12, has been drilled to a total measured depth of 4,772

m and encountered about 1,800 m of oil-filled reservoir sand. The current operation is

running the sand screen completion. The well is scheduled to be brought on stream in

early April.



The first cargo of crude oil from Maari field has been contracted for sale in April.



The Maari Oil Field is located in PMP 38160, in the offshore Taranaki basin, New

Zealand. Oil production will ramp up towards the expected initial gross rate of 35,000

barrels of oil as the development wells are progressively drilled and turned to the FPSO.

The proven and probable (2P) production profile forecasts recoverable volumes of 61

million barrels of oil from the Moki reservoir over the 22 year term of the Petroleum

Mining Permit.

[STRAT]

Hi FD,
Good maybe but not good enough to get Mr Market excited on the biggest up day for the DOW in yonks :(

[Financially dependant]

Hi FD,
Good maybe but not good enough to get Mr Market excited on the biggest up for the DOW in yonks :(

The market is a fickle place, dow up, oil down......who knows but maybe a little time for it to sink in??

10,000 barrels on 26% open choke on natural flow sounds pretty good to me :) should easily exceed expectations (35,000 for all 3 wells), which should also upgrade reserve??

[JBmurc]

Well it sounds good to me CUE up 1c atm may close at 12c very light volume so far
AWE,ROC,STO all down prob on the 400k increase in US oil reserves still oil up alittle atm
still sounds like OPEC may cut another 1mill bbls off production so wouldn't be surprised to see $50bbl soon

[jdg]

that ann is great news. massive derisking of the project and those flow rate are fantastic.
the market will wake up soon enough. i've never felt better about CUE.

-j

[Crypto Crude]

hey FD,
Ive heard nothing....
Im not sure what Oiler is saying....

I read a presentation on the Maari Oil field set out by Delta Oil (which I now cant find), which held the 5% stake on sold to CUE...

The expected flow rates per well to be around 5,000 BOPD based on this presentation....
I have now just realised why the difference to 10,000 BOPD announced today...

The 1998 well of Maari-1 flow tested at 4350 BOPD in the Moki sands...
but only a 653m horizontal section was drilled...

We have approx 2km horizontal sections...more oil contact, so increased flow rates...

1 well 10,000 BOPD
2 wells 20,000 (2nd production well flowing similar to 1st)....
3 wells.......
....
5 wells?
3 water injectors...

right now 35,000 BOPD must seem conservative...

Maybe the JV was being conservative with flow rates just like they have been with field reserves so as to not dissapoint the market....
drilling around 3 weeks ahead of schedule...
3rd well at total depth....
onto the 4th...

Jewel in the Crown Manaia is just round the corner, then onto Matariki....

problems at production stage are never out of the question...
with quality announcements so far they must be fairly minor...
no problems hanging on the block with OMV....

we have Santos spear heading Oyong Gas/Wortel developments...
Oil Search driving PNG...
Coogee in Timor Sea...
MEO in .... hahahahhaha.....

its only time until I make my money back...
2008 the year I lost it...
2009 the year I made it back....

total market failure...
fairy tale dream in the making here...

later...
:cool:
.^sc

[jdg]

right now 35,000 BOPD must seem conservative...

.^sc


yeah, that was the great thing about today's ann. given they were forecasting 35,000 barrels at peak, 20,000 from two (of five) wells is terrific. the quicker the oil flows, the quicker the coffers are filled. let's hope these excellent results continue.

-j

[Financially dependant]

Maari Update


Development drilling program with Ensco 107 jack-up rig began 11 November 2008. Program is to batch

drill 3 oil production wells, followed by 3 water injectors and 2 oil production wells



Wellhead platform and FPSO operational, connecting flow-lines and umbilicals installed. 100 Hour Test

through FPSO facilities completed 8 March 2009



Production wells

- MR3P8 completed in 1,518 m of clean, oil-filled sand and began flowing to FPSO 25 February;

currently producing over 10,000 bopd on natural flow

- MR4P9 completed in over 2,000 m of clean, oil-filled sand and began flowing to FPSO on 9 March;

similar flow characteristics to MR3P8 well

- The two wells are now flowing at a combined rate in excess of 20,000 bopd under natural flow (i.e. not

on pumps)

- MR5P12 drilled and currently running lower completion; scheduled on stream early April



Development drilling program progressing well in terms of execution (several days ahead of plan and

gaining) and geological results



First cargo of crude oil contracted for sale in April



Plan is to drill Manaia appraisal well at end of development drilling phase, likely from the platform

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=HZN&E=ASX&N=208577

[boysy]

jumped the gun a bit guys

THE Maari oil field offshore Taranaki, New Zealand, is now flowing more than 10,000 barrels of oil per day from the first of five production wells, according to minority partner Horizon Oil.



Raroa FPSO in New Zealand

Horizon said yesterday the MR3P8 well is producing on natural flow to the Raroa floating production, storage and offtake vessel through a choke that was only 26% open.

The company added the second well, MR4P9, was hooked up to the Raroa on Monday and was exhibiting similar flow characteristics to MR3P8, though no flow rates were yet available as that well was still cleaning up.

The third horizontal production well, MR5P12, which was drilled to a total measured depth of 4772m, had encountered about 1800m of oil-filled reservoir sand, Horizon added.

Current operations are running the sand screen completion, with that well scheduled to be brought onstream by early April, the same month that the first offtake tanker is scheduled to visit the site, about 80 kilometres off the south Taranaki coast.

Once the third production well has been completed, three water injection wells will be drilled, followed by the final two oil production wells. This will utilise eight of the 12 available drilling slots on the platform.

Horizon said oil production is expected to ramp up towards initial gross rate of 35,000bpd by the start of the fourth quarter as the development wells were progressively drilled and tied in to the FPSO

It is known that Weatherford International assisted the jack-up Ensco Rig 107 with the batch drilling of the vertical sections of the first three oil production wells using drilling with casing – a 27-inch drill bit with 24-inch casing, a world-first for these sizes.

It was also the first time this technique had been used in New Zealand waters.

First oil flowed to the Raroa on February 25, five months after originally scheduled, delighting operator Austrian firm OMV and its partners.

Yesterday Horizon also said a 100-hour performance test of the Raroa was successfully completed last Sunday, March 8.

The proven and probable (2P) production profile forecasts recoverable volumes of 61 million barrels of oil from the primary Moki reservoir – and more from the M2A sands and the nearby Manaia structure that is to be appraised after the Maari development – over the mining permit’s 22-year term.

The Maari partners are operator OMV New Zealand (69%), Todd Energy (16%), Horizon Oil (10%) and Cue Energy Resources (5%).

[upside_umop]

jumped the gun a bit guys

THE Maari oil field offshore Taranaki, New Zealand, is now flowing more than 10,000 barrels of oil per day from the first of five production wells, according to minority partner Horizon Oil.


If you read the horizon report from yesterday, it is infact 20,000 barrels as FD has copied above. HZN is 10% JV partner.

[jdg]

OPEC meeting on sunday. i hope they decide to cut production. if they do, the price of oil should go higher next week. if theu don't it'll have a big fall on monday. CUE can certainly use all the money it can get right now. i said in a post above we needed maari derisked and the spectre of a capital raising removed for the sp to rise significantly. the first of these points is looking good (great, even), but the latter is still a mystery. a couple of tankers of taranaki oil at a good price would certainly help things. have a good weekend, everyone.

-j

[Crypto Crude]

two successfully drilling production wells in roughly 2km of oil bearing sandstone did nothing for the sp...
Maari first production did nothing to the sp...
Upgraded reserves by 22% did nothing to the sp...
10,000 BOPD per well did nothing for the share price....


so what will do something for the share price? ;)...

well... its safe to say that,

This will at least turn on cashflow positive, and safety of debt...
this is a good few months away... im confident enough that it will turn soon...

The market now requires performance...
real value is required... not forward looking assumptions or hype... at the time of investment Id factored all this in, argghhh.... time delays killed this stock...

market wants that barrel in the hand, and is discounting two barrels in the bush...

This YEAR we have 3 major activities we can bank on that will provide performance, and one other that may or may not add to performance, (Matariki)...
those 3 activities which will add to performance...

Maari
Manaia
Oyong Gas

...
..
.

The Maari Oil Field is described as "full to Spill point"...
ie, the structure has maximum oil volume for the given trap... (anticline trap)...
130 million barrels of oil in place in the moki formation, and current 2P reserves from HZN of 62 Million barrels...

Manaia (exciting appraisal well later this year), is described as under filled...
The reasoning behind this is Manaia is 6-7 km west of the natural oil migration fairway, where oil migrated South from the East Maui Kitchen gazillions of years ago...
nope, not popa cooking in the kitchen... hehehe....
so as the Trap at Manaia was developing many years ago, oil was diverted West filling some of the structure...
This is why Manaia is expected to increase oil reserves only 1 million barrels more to CUE, and 20 million barrels total more for the JV...
This is the most likely outcome in my view, but could be higher volumes when drilled in more optimal location, and flow tested...


Back when Manaia was first discovered (1974 Maui-4 well, drilled by Shell)... An oil discovery was made...was drilled off center, off crest and flowed at 575 BOPD only... KiwiGeo (a poster from another forum) basically said that it was thought at the time that drilling at the edge of the structure was to intersect a fluid contact which could save the need for further appraisal drilling.... ie, getting lucky...
well, this time we are going for the sweet spot to the north...
yeah hargghh...
As said earlier Im confident we can bank on this well...


the Oil migration pathway that I talked about ran straight through the Maari oilfield which trapped oil as it passed... guess what... this migration pathway runs straight through Matariki...;)
Matariki is very exciting because it has two major targets in the Moki Formation...
upper and lower Moki sandstones...
This is why the Matariki target is roughly twice the size of Maari... Matariki also has similar characteristics to Maari, seismics show similar hydrocarbon charge...
and I believe CUE hold a 20% stake..

This is a much more exciting exploration well than Zeus even though it is targeting roughly half the discovery...
20 million barrels to CUE compared to zeus's 40m barrels (BOE).....
I will come back to Matariki later on...

Most important is focusing on getting Maari up and running, and getting the seal of approval of performance from the market... I think I gave my seal of approval when I invested last year...

looks like only good announcements to come after a rough period of inactivity...

peace...
:cool:
.^sc

[Corporate]

SC I enjoy your posts....a few questions



Upgraded reserves by 22% did nothing to the sp...


Why did HZN only annouce this....with no emphasis... and CUE still stated 50m barrels



the Oil migration pathway that I talked about ran straight through the Maari oilfield which trapped oil as it passed... guess what... this migration pathway runs straight through Matariki...;)
Matariki is very exciting because it has two major targets in the Moki Formation...
upper and lower Moki sandstones...
This is why the Matariki target is roughly twice the size of Maari... Matariki also has similar characteristics to Maari, seismics show similar hydrocarbon charge...
and I believe CUE hold a 20% stake..


Are you sure about the 20% share - and is OMV the operator?

Do you have a diagram of where Matariki is situation in comparison to Maari?

Can it be drilled from the Maari WHP?

[croesus]

Good post Shrewd........... have been buying CUE lately......if I quit my some other stocks tomorrow.. will buy more.....3 years.. should be a 10 bagger.
Croesus.

p.s also keen on WID, WEN, HGD, VPEO.....

do your own research ( its more fun)

[Crypto Crude]

corporate-
1)Why did HZN only annouce this....with no emphasis... and CUE still stated 50m barrels?


2)Are you sure about the 20% share - and is OMV the operator?

3)Do you have a diagram of where Matariki is situation in comparison to Maari?

4)Can it be drilled from the Maari WHP?


1)Maybe CUE is wanting to wait until the market would recieve this announcement more favourably ie when full production is up and running...
and perhaps HZN want to announce it early so they can secure more funds for ongoing costs, proceeding with bigger reserves would be advantageous..

perhaps you could ask CUE and tell us what they said?

2) yup 20%...

3)http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CUE&E=ASX&N=304299

4) No...
The Ensoc 107 drilling rig will have to be moved from the WHP as Matariki is 22km's away...

oh.... goodie,
you can see in the link that I have shown, the oil migration pathway where oil migrated south across the Tasmin Ridge, and Manaia to the west of that....
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

croesus-Good post Shrewd........... have been buying CUE lately......if I quit my some other stocks tomorrow.. will buy more.....3 years.. should be a 10 bagger.
Croesus.


hey croesus,
quit what?

dont quit your day job....
not yet anyway...
:rolleyes:
.^sc

[Corporate]

2) yup 20%...

3)http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CUE&E=ASX&N=304299


.^sc

Thanks SC. Do you know who the other JV partners are (Todd, anyone else?)

[croesus]

Hi Shrewdie.......... not sure where the " my" came from... can't be a freudian slip re my job as I dont have one.... havnt worked for a employer since i was in my early 20s and that was 30 years ago.

Re stocks... hoping to reduce my holding in VPEO today.. and use some of the funds to buy more Cue.
cheers.

Cue at average cost of 13.5c

[jdg]

oil flowing well from maari and oil price at 10 week highs, yet CUE's not moving. i would like to see CUE clarify its financial position. if we're all good, then say so. if we need some short term funds, then do something about it. i believe it is this uncertainty that's holding us back at the moment. we are all aware of the massive revenues coming CUE's way in the future from multiple projects, but in the short term do we have enough cash to pay our way?

-j

[Crypto Crude]

JDG,
CUE's up 20% off its lows...

I worked out that CUE should have around 10million left at the end of the month, based on information for the quarterly ending 31st Dec......

but the 1 million or so I factored in from Maari is an accrued revenue as first oil cargo is contracted for April...

could be touch and go in the next quarter...

Corporate,
for Matariki...
im aware of CUE 20%
HZN 25%...
TODD's 55%...
Didnt read anything about OMV..
id like to see them in on this...
:cool:
.^sc

[jdg]

cheers, shrewdy, i'm looking forward to a solid re rating at some point pretty soon.

-j

[KentBrockman]

cheers, shrewdy, i'm looking forward to a solid re rating at some point pretty soon.

-j

Careful, those 're-ratings' don't always come.....e.g. PPP, 1.5 years and $150mil in the bank later, and the re-rating still hasn't occurred...

[Crypto Crude]

kentbrockman-Careful, those 're-ratings' don't always come.....e.g. PPP, 1.5 years and $150mil in the bank later, and the re-rating still hasn't occurred...

hey Kent...
here were are charging for Mayfair...
hehehehe...
perhaps it is time I did a detailed comparsion...
I'll tell you one thing...
I dont have to look hard into Pan to find out what they have going for them at exploration stage, development stage, appraisal stage, and production stage...
the report would be full of CUE activities...
I rate that company... I completely changed my perspective on them...
money to burn...
If I wanted money, Id go down to westpac with my wallet...
:cool:
.^sc

[croesus]

Kent..... what S/P should PPP have for you to consider it to be ' Rerated'..... not making a picky comment... just wondering what you see as fair value for PPP all things considered.

cheers Croesus.
Not a holder ... at present.
Cue Vpeo WID HGD etc

[KentBrockman]

Kent..... what S/P should PPP have for you to consider it to be ' Rerated'..... not making a picky comment... just wondering what you see as fair value for PPP all things considered.

cheers Croesus.
Not a holder ... at present.
Cue Vpeo WID HGD etc

I don't want to hijack this thread and argue the pros and cons of PPP...all I am saying is that when PPP was in a similar position to CUE now, e.g. with its main project coming on stream, many holders were expecting a 're-rating' (guess a gradual SP move of perhaps 50% or so), and it just didn't happen. That was when we were moving into an unprecedented high POO!

So I believe a re-rating of CUE when I see it.

[trackers]

I don't want to hijack this thread and argue the pros and cons of PPP...all I am saying is that when PPP was in a similar position to CUE now, e.g. with its main project coming on stream, many holders were expecting a 're-rating' (guess a gradual SP move of perhaps 50% or so), and it just didn't happen. That was when we were moving into an unprecedented high POO!

So I believe a re-rating of CUE when I see it.

Nov08 20c, Jan 09 35c (.asx)... In the midst of a global meltdown? Wouldn't be complaining too much

[jdg]

from my memory, Kent, PPP ran from mid teens to mid 30s as Tui came on stream and hector (was it hector?) was being drilled and then after it proved to be a duster the sp settled in the low/mid 20s - that's a pretty good re-rate. moreover, as shrewdy alludes to, there is much in the future to look forward to. when maari is fully up-and-running, we have oyong, then wortel - with blue sky exploration along the way. mate, don't get me wrong, the market doesn't always react as it should, but i would be very surprised if we don't see CUE toward or over 20c in the next quarter. the price of oil being a wildcard. time will tell, i suppose.
cheers,

-j

[KentBrockman]

from my memory, Kent, PPP ran from mid teens to mid 30s as Tui came on stream and hector (was it hector?)

-j

Yes, I'd argue the first spike was Hector (as evidenced by the SP fall afterwards) and the recent spike was due to NZO's activities.

My point was that there was little or no re-rating solely due to Tui coming on stream.

We shall see if CUE will be different. I am holding, so I hope so :)

[jdg]

i'm pretty sure the sp ran from the mid teens to mid 30s, before dropping back to early/mid 20s. if it was due to hector alone, it would have dropped back to the teens. a rise from teens to 20s seems to have been tui. i guess we'll soon see what happens with CUE. good luck, mate.

-j

[STRAT]

Cue SP has been on the mend since the 24feb on extreemly light volume. I would hazard a guess and say the rise has little to do with CUE and more to do with the POO which has been on the mend since almost that exact same day

Sorry to break away from the PPP conversation :D

[Crypto Crude]

yeah boy...
12.5 centers gone...
buyers moving up....
come on 13cents....
we are on a roll....

Pan has 10% of 50 million barrels...
CUE has 5% of 100 million barrels...

Lets be stupid and say that the higher price that PPP got for crude at its peak is offset by CUE having SE Gobe, Oyong Oil, Oyong Gas, and Wortel Gas.... easy as...no problem as the two current Indo developments are worth 30million as an absolute floor per year for the long term...

and then we have giant proven assets, exploration drilling which PPP dont really have...big daddys all over...

If you think in 5 years time when Maari is still pumping hard, that we will see the other side of the oil curve when Tui is declining further then we will be alright..... kabaam, as Manaia comes online in a few years... we are away...
:cool:
.^sc

[boysy]

you cant compare ppp and cue in this market. PPP has cash Cue doest. Cue has more assets coming online ppp doesnt. PPP have TUI Cue have maari. Plenty of upside for both companies on those projects.

[STRAT]

Depth looks a bit better today and the chart shows promise. Looking for an increase in volume.

[Ketel One]

CUE chart starting to look positive; not going anywhere very quickly, but does look to have broken the short-term downtrend:
http://iforce.co.nz/i/bd002928d6cda355f6496a29415b2740.png

[jdg]

let's hope for another update on maari this week that tells us how the second and third production wells are going. with oil prices looking pretty good, any positive news should shunt the sp up, one would think.

-j

[Ketel One]

let's hope for another update on maari this week that tells us how the second and third production wells are going. with oil prices looking pretty good, any positive news should shunt the sp up, one would think.

-j

New ann out: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090323/pdf/31gql3q48fqfqv.pdf

Very positive announcement imo; highlights:
- Second well is all go, first two wells flowing "at a peak combined rate of over 26000 bopd".
- flow rates have necessitated bringing forward the first oil cargo lifting to 1st week of april.
- Production from the third well anticipated in 1st week of april.

[trackers]

New ann out: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090323/pdf/31gql3q48fqfqv.pdf

Very positive announcement imo; highlights:
- Second well is all go, first two wells flowing "at a peak combined rate of over 26000 bopd".
- flow rates have necessitated bringing forward the first oil cargo lifting to 1st week of april.
- Production from the third well anticipated in 1st week of april.

Nice, thats mint... Though I do wish that HZN and CUE (not todd, obviously) would have a common announcement that they release simultaneously!!

[troyvdh]

I hold CUE....have done for years....a worry for me is why "the market" is so underwhelmed given the plethora of positives offered....oil up....Todd inc major investors....(having bought in at 22 cents (?)......is this "to good to be true Mr Shrewd.....or a true wonder phase for us.....

[croesus]

I like them ..... mind you would'nt bet the Ranch .. but have been buying steadily in the last few weeks...
cheers Croesus.

[Crypto Crude]

hey troy,
yeah its something like that mate...
soon mackdunk will regret selling out....
He has been very brutal towards CUE and I, when it was falling... he has still remained blood ravenged to this day... Like some sort of war machine...

anyway....

Todays announcement was shockingly amazing...
and the market reaction was again shockingly poor...
but we have seen CUE rise 40% this year...
This is now performing in the grips of dispear...
Im chuffed...

would anyone have believed that we would have 26,000 BOPD from just two wells on restricted output... I guess its real real early stages and these rates will settle back when wells are shut in for dewaxing and heating oil up....
this is a mega development and we are only at the beginning of our journey of oil upgrades from Manaia, Moki sand upside, (which id say is looking more promising again), M2a Upside, Kapuni group upside...
I love NZO and they have a PIP SQUEAK .... hehehehe....
CUE has 2P oil reserves of 3.1 million barrels...
M2a Sand upside of 500,000 Barrels...
Manaia oil upside of 1.5 million barrels...
making around 5million barrels to CUE, 3.1 million sure thing... 1.5 million close to sure thing, and 500,000 potential sitting at ultra low marginal cost ...

EBITDA net to CUE of US$2.25 million per month at $US 50...

Rocking in the craddle.... rolling in the Hurst...
what do you want to do in the Middle...?

Hold CUE is what I want to do !!!
how about you?
:cool:
.^sc

[trackers]

Oils up another 5% today, was hoping that would be the case and we wouldn't be giving back last weeks gains... Maari and POO both steaming along. Hope to see north of 14c today

[jdg]

the news from maari just keeps getting better. 26,000bopd with three production well to go. just brilliant. a significant rerate is on its way for sure.

-j

[jdg]

like many, i'd be keen to see a Phaedrus chart to see how we're looking. if you have a chance, P, it would be greatly appreciated. cheers, mate.

-j

[trackers]

Todd charters a new oil tanker:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10563184



Todd Energy has a new chartered oil tanker to deliver growing volumes of oil to refineries on the east coast of Australia and possibly New Zealand.
From next month the MS Sophie will begin shipping Todd's 16 per cent and Cue Taranaki's 5 per cent of the offshore Maari field which is expected to produce 35,000 barrels a day.....

[STRAT]

Depth looking more interesting today than it has for some time.

[Phaedrus]

I'd be keen to see a Phaedrus chart...... Here you are J. This chart contains some beautiful textbook examples of "Double Tops" and Support/Resistance. It should be self-explanatory, but feel free to ask, if anything is unclear.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/CUE324.gif

[jdg]

thanks so much, Phaedrus. it certainly looks like CUE fell with the price of oil. even the bounce off the bottom seems to be timed with the PoO recovery, but we've outpaced it as maari has been de-risked.

i'm sure CUE holders will be hoping that PoO remains at current levels or higher in the short term and we should continue to enjoy the current upswing. in this market that's the wildcard; and it could either crown or cripple us. keep an eye on those double tops, eh?

with both the sale of the first oil shipment and commencement of the third production well occurring early next month, we shouldn't be short of news to please the market.

thanks again, mate, really appreciate it. hope you're making a bundle.

-j

[STRAT]

Thought CUE might be getting ready to jump but no:( Bounced off the 10 month trend line like a puppy trying to run through a recently cleaned ranch slider thats closed

[ELYOB]

Just wait ......soon , new horizon will show the way.....

[jdg]

agreed, two news events should be released this week: 1. the flow rates of the third production well and 2. the sale of first oil.

the first de-risks the project further, and should push us over our expected maximum flow rate with two production well yet to be hooked up. that would be tremendous. the second is a major milestone and signals the beginning of strong cash flows.

as always, the wild card is the price of oil, which took a battering over night.

-j

[jdg]

and where are you, shrewdy? the thread is very quiet without your bursts of enthusiasm...

-j

[boysy]

what makes people think that further good news will bolster this stock. we are in a market gripped by fear who knows where the price of oil will go. The facts are for all to see but the market doesnt always follow fundementals . Cue still has alot of debt and uncertainty around if capital raising will be required.

[jdg]

what you say is quite right, boysy. but i believe that more good news out of maari will give us a lift. the flow rates have been terrific so far, and the quicker the money comes in the better chance of avoiding any need to raise additional capital.

also, after all of the production drilling one might expect the operator has a better handle on the size of the field, and so CUE holders will undoubtedly be hoping that the reserves, like the flow rates, have been significantly underestimated. it's a tough time to make money, but i feel very comfortable in CUE.

-j

[Crypto Crude]

and where are you, shrewdy? the thread is very quiet without your bursts of enthusiasm...


JDG,
I consider myselF rampant... I will look back and realise I was not rampant enough....

Maari has perFormed beyond my wildest expectations...
Debt means nothing to me because it is managable...
Forward revenue streams Capable oF retiring our Debt within two years with our expansive programs still in place...

Ive said everything Ive needed to say...

Time to sit back and wait...
Positive news can only be ignored For so long...
the tension is building everytime we get an update...

:cool:
.^sc

[Financially dependant]

JDG,
I consider myselF rampant... I will look back and realise I was not rampant enough....

Maari has perFormed beyond my wildest expectations...
Debt means nothing to me because it is managable...
Forward revenue streams Capable oF retiring our Debt within two years with our expansive programs still in place...

Ive said everything Ive needed to say...

Time to sit back and wait...
Positive news can only be ignored For so long...
the tension is building everytime we get an update...

:cool:
.^sc

CUE's time is very close, patience will be rewarded as SC allowed's too...

SC hasn't quite got on top of those pesky F's

[AMR]

Thought CUE might be getting ready to jump but no:( Bounced off the 10 month trend line like a puppy trying to run through a recently cleaned ranch slider thats closed

Nice chart strat I'm starring at the same trend line waiting to buy a small amount.

[AMR]

I still doubt that your're big enough to fight the markets :)

Intra-day breakout fading seems to work a fair bit actually, hence I prefer closing prices.

[STRAT]

LoL have you seen the turn over in CUE? $31,000

You don't fight a market, you just give it a little of what it wants.

Closing prices are even easier to manipulate, anyway Im just really playing with ya, I stick to the ASX 200 - 300 and are not that mean anyway lol

AAI think maybe you are developing a mean streak AA . :D
Seriously though, you are within your rights to have a giggle. That chart means bugger all on the turnover of CUE. CUE can be best described as being ignored.

[trackers]

Not greatly impressed with the traction lost over the last week, HOWEVER it is nice to see buyer depth at 2million vs seller depth at 1million - once 13 is broken the run up to 16 should be easy enough, esp if POO holds up and we see more good news re Maari

[jdg]

we may see that good news today. the first oil cargo lifting was brought forward to 'the first week of april', at the same time the third production well was to be hooked up. let's hope the third well produces in a similar way as the first two.

-j

[jdg]

i note also that the production drilling in the Moki sands at Maari will be used to better assess the shallower M2A sands that could, according to CUE, "provide upside production in the future".

-j

[ScrappyO]

First cargo of ~ 480,000 barrels of crude oil offloaded on 7 April 2009
§ Plan is to drill Manaia appraisal well at end of development drilling phase, likely from the platform.

This was from HZN latest Presentation.

[jdg]

well spotted, ScrappyO, i wonder why they didn't release this news? i also wonder why more isn't being made of the flow rates to date. 10,000+ each from the first two production wells with three yet to come on line when they were expected maximum flow rates of 35,000 is news to crow about. what does everyone think? are they playing it cool in case a couple end up to be duds? or are they expecting the flow rates to drop quickly? surely the water injectors will keep the flow rates up - particularly as they are currently choked and flowing naturally. it would be nice to get a good clear announcement from the company stating what their technical experts think of progress so far. am i asking too much?

-j

[macduffy]

Just the normal delay on CUE's part.

They are a junior partner in Maari and always seem to lag well behind HZN in announcements. Or at least that's how it seems.

:cool:

[ScrappyO]

Article...........Dated 9.4.2009

THE first cargo of crude has been offloaded from the Maari oil field off Taranaki, New Zealand, with the Nassau Spirit tanker taking on about 480,000 barrels of oil earlier this week, according to minority partner Horizon Oil.



Raroa FPSO in New Zealand

Horizon said yesterday that the vessel loaded its cargo from the Raroa floating production, storage and offtake vessel on Tuesday.

Horizon also said the previously delayed development drilling program by the jack-up Ensco Rig 107 was now “several days ahead of plan and gaining” in terms of execution and geological results, having drilled and completed the MR5P12 development well.

The well is now awaiting hook-up to the Raroa, where it will join the first two wells, MR3P8 and MP4P9, which are currently producing more than 20,000 barrels per day on “25 per cent production chokes”.

The jack-up is currently drilling the first of three water injection wells, the next phase of the drilling campaign, before drilling, completing and hooking up the last two oil development wells.

Once completed, oil production is expected to ramp up towards the expected initial gross rate of 35,000bpd by the start of the fourth quarter.

Horizon also said the Maari development would provide “strong, long-lived cash flows” for perhaps the next 18 years or longer, which would help fund future capital programs.

However, the slump in world oil prices – from nearly $US150 ($A211.3) last year to less than $50 per barrel – is also affecting its forecast financial returns from Maari.

Horizon said that at $50/bbl, it estimated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation from its 10% share of production to be about $US54 million for the first full year.

It said cumulative production after two years, of about 20 million barrels, would generate net EBITDA of about $81 million at $50/bbl, while cumulative production after four years, of about 31MMbbl, would generate about $117 million.

The company also said the partners still planned for the Ensco rig to drill the Manaia appraisal well, in the nearby licence PEP38413, at the end of the Maari development drilling phase.

While the Moki sands are the main producing reservoir at Maari, with proven and probable (2P) reserves of 60MMbbl, the M2A sands have the potential to add another 12MMbbl and the Manaia prospect another 25MMbbl to recoverable reserves.

The Maari partners are operator Austrian firm OMV (69%), Todd Energy (16%), Horizon Oil (10%) and Cue Energy Resources (5%).

[Ketel One]

Noticed this in todays HZN financing arrangements announcement:

"Bringing Maari onstream - Field currently producing 32,000 bopd from first 3 production wells." (from p.3 http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090414/pdf/31h1gkwgflvnzc.pdf)

So much for 35,000 bopd from 5 wells!

[jdg]

yip, that appears to be good news, but the first two wells were producing at a max flow rate of 26,000 choked at 25%. so either they have dropped off (or choked back further) or the third well is not producing as well as the other two. still, with water injectors now being drilled to keep the pressure up, 35,000 appears to look pretty conservative. i'd like to here what CUE has to say about this.

the HZN release also said that Matariki has been deferred. probably sensible with the price of oil so far off its highs and a great deal of expenditure on other developments due, but, again, i would like to be kept better informed by CUE.

surely an announcement is due...

-j

[STRAT]

Whats goin on with CUE Shrewdy ?

[Crypto Crude]

strat,
Matariki deferred ruins a 50c-$1 potential shot this year (with what would have had a downside protected SP on failure)....
boy we have had bad luck at every step of the way...

Zeus failure.
rig problems causing spikey to be abandoned before it even got to spud, when rig was on site, and probably a reschedule in one million years..
Maari delay, and strike threats.
Bariweka delay. Jeruk postpone.
and now Matariki.

the later 3 market related...
The others, just risks of this sector we invest in...

Yeah we are losing, but considering company failure to deal with total market failure and the resulting pressure on our projects, and other unforeseen risks such as Weather, drilling risks etc... we are not doing too bad on a risk return basis for our shots at riches, given the fact that our debt levels have risen substantially, and our earnings have fallen with the price of oil and gas, our negative cashflow position (which wasnt the case when I invested, and all the delays which allowed the markets to swoop... (all of which is only now turning around with Maari really impressing)...
If you look at other ASX oilers who had bad company performance... you will see them down 80-90% in the same period...

Its great to have a World Class project to protect us, and hopefully some other assets can come through in time, im really thinking these PNG assets are the most likely and are not decades off with the PNG LNG, spear headed by OSH who set the bench mark...

lets hope Matariki is still on somehow... OMV takes HZNs position or something... HZN pulls out, but CUE remains..
Im clutching at straws...I will wait on a market update / quarterly for more info, or I will have to call Bob Coppins.....
Im also after clarrification from Andrew Knox on Oyong gas development expenditure, because I can see CUE have pumped alot of cash into Indonesia in the last year from the Annual report, but it is not sub classified as Jeruk, Oyong oil, Oyong gas, Wortel... just a total amount...
Andrew is going to get a knock knock on his door... hehehehe...

Ive never had to call anyone at CUE before, because ive never had to worry...business takes care of business... I virtually never contact managers of any company...
But I am worried (for the sake of major returns this year if Matariki is gone)...

so giant returns have pretty much been eliminated...and that is a killer... healthy returns are still on the cards...

we have 3 core activities to enjoy this year

Maari, Manaia, Oyong Gas...

a fundamental approach with less drilling risk but lower possible returns...

... Manaia becomes much more important... I still believe we are onto a successful winner up dip on that appraisal target...

nothings changed other than the timing of our assets, and projects...
still sitting on gigantic proven assets...a few bucks per barrel of oil inground 2P...
still sitting on large developing projects set to kahuna our cash flows over the next 1,2,3,4,5 years and further, even at these prices...

perhaps I might hold this one all the way through...
Maybe my old age is starting to show as im looking for strong cashflows to protect my future...
grind the cash balance path from lows to highs like a few other great ASX/NZX oilers have...

I am confident CUE can get to one dollar per share over the next 5 to 7 years based on the development path of current undeveloped assets, and thats without any exploration success...

Its now official...
All Maari development expenditure from here (the cost of 3 water injectors, and two production wells, and Manaia) are all covered by current revenues...

with Oyong gas coming through, CUE will sustain strong revenues from its gas and oil assets for decades to come (maari, Indo gas), and only abit of debt, from what are heavy capital expenditures to get assets into production...
the fundamental growth phase is closer as we turn from a 'pumper of funds' to develop projects... into a collector of riches.....


I hope that helps...
to smart to sell... Just like Bermuda (with his stock picks), I will also sell when I dont believe I could return 100% in 6 months... hehehehe...

Im coming to an Auckland sharetraders meeting later this year... I will have to get mackdunks address so I can pop in unexpectedly just in case he does a no show....
hehehehehe...
:cool:
.^sc

[STRAT]

Im coming to an Auckland sharetraders meeting later this year... I will have to get mackdunks address so I can pop in unexpectedly just in case he does a no show....
hehehehehe...
:cool:
.^scBe good to see ya. I was disappointed to miss you in Christchurch.
A surprise visit on Macdunk??? haha
Id come for that ride :D

[Crypto Crude]

yeah mate...
we should drop in with some KFC for a finger licking good time...
hehehe...

I realise that my last post is more or less my previous thoughts.....
I will be interested to post my thoughts about the quarterly report, the cashflow report, and an update from what I find on Oyong gas expenditure, and a review of Manaia in the lead up......

other than that...theres not a heap more to say that I have not already said...


32,000 BOPD.... sit back and relax FD...
my lazy boy is set in a fixed position...
horizontal mate...
:cool:
.^sc

[STRAT]

yeah mate...
we should drop in with some KFC for a finger licking good time...
hehehe...


:cool:
.^scAnything but KFC Shrewdy:eek:

Hell, Id rather eat grass :p

[Financially dependant]

32,000 BOPD.... sit back and relax FD...
my lazy boy is set in a fixed position...
horizontal mate...
:cool:
.^sc

Hey SC..

Always good to hear you are soooo relaxed....I'm with you..... holding and waiting for the good news to come forth...

John Campbell of Oil and Gas weekly mentions that CUE needs to get more finance, so a lot of the market maybe thinking alone the same lines....As the good news keeps coming (32,000 BOPD & increase in POO etc), IMHO when it becomes obvious that CUE can finance on cash flow we will see a marked increase in CUE SP.....then looking good...:)

So much to like about this stock......and then there is PNG LNG..:cool:

[croesus]

Not Ramping .. agree with you F.D.... the Todd connection also gives me ressurance.....by the way Shrewd.. appreciate your posts....

[STRAT]

Yea I second that! Im really getting into eating grass lately, M mm Chlorophyll, those chloroplasts are really detoxifying you knowSpirulina shakes. A great kick start to the day;)

[Crypto Crude]

jeezzee strat...
I was only joking...
I wouldnt do that to mackdunk..
I wanted him to come out so I can pin him... hehehe...
jokes...
where is he anyway?
Hell you say...
not a hell pizza by any chance... hehehe....
a vegetarian hell pizza eah AA...

FD,
With Matariki seemingly off, our future cash cost commitments have changed as we wont need to fund our share of 20 millionish,(30% for the cost of Matariki later this year)...
and I did roughly work out that CUE should have around 10 million available on hand at 31st March...with Maari cashflow positive, humm.... Its looking better by the day mate....

Funds would now really only be needed for Oyong Gas (if at all)...
Oyong gas is very big for us...do not under estimate this project because it is gas...when it is up and running 3rd-4th quarter (4th quarter) production will be equilivant to 1100-1200 barrels oil per day net to CUE...
abit less than 500,000 BOE to CUE per year...
the good thing about Gas projects in general are long term Contracts over gas sales... The entire reserves of Oyong gas are being sold to PT Indonesia power...
This project was the only reason why I did not sell CUE for HZN a day ago, as HZN raised, and secured funds to survive...

at current production rates CUE has cash inflows from Maari of $800,000 AUS per week... with Manaia, further tie ins, increased performance, future outlook of oil prices, then this could be stabalised for many many years to come...

80 million barrels... at 35,000 BOPD is production for 6.2years... of course decline will stretch production out for a decade or two at lower flow rates in time...
Mate if Matariki hits, whenever its drilled this project could be earning me dividends when im a grand dad... hehehe...

its so so sick that CUE is still being overlooked...
I guess this is why we make money over the medium term...ive got to have patience...

production stage activities in time should support a share price of 20-30cents... and then we have appraisal stage activities, exploration stage activities thrown in absolutely free...

CUE's ability to grow its cash backing per share is limited to CUE's hunger to spread its wings through reinvestment in the industry...
I would be dissapointed with dividends... and I will be dissapointed with cash hoarding...
Time will tell...
:cool:
.^sc

[Financially dependant]

Thanks Shrewdy.....point taken about Matariki........I wish Cue would would ann. more, it would help us on so different many levels....:confused:

[jdg]

i agree about the lack on information coming from CUE. very frustrating. sold down a chunk of my holding last week. i still very much like the story and (at this stage) i'm planning to maintain the shares that i have left, but one of the things that excited me about CUE was its exploration pipeline. with cobra disappointing, zeus shot, no sign of spikey beach, and matariki seemingly put on the back burner, really it's only production development to look forward to. don't get me wrong, with upside from maari (including mania appraisal) and oyong gas on the horizon, we should see a lift in the sp, but it just doesn't look capable of the dream run that it once did. but for the sake of my remaining shares, shrewdy and others, i hope i'm proven wrong.

-j

[Financially dependant]

They must have heard our moaning about lack of Ann's....

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?E=ASX&S=CUE&N=316724

Cue's 1st oil from Maari was on Saturday! Should help the bank balance..

[shasta]

They must have heard our moaning about lack of Ann's....

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?E=ASX&S=CUE&N=316724

Cue's 1st oil from Maari was on Saturday! Should help the bank balance..

Given the cargo is set for the east coast of Australia for refining.

Does anyone know the actual terms of when they will be paid?

Who is doing the marketing for them, Todd Energy?

[Brut]

Sold out of this Dog today @ 11.5c. Fustrating management are not keeping shareholders informed. Looks like it is heading back down to 10c where it should find support. With a chance the company needing more capital it is keeping the buyers away.

Luckily I brought in @ 10c so happy to take a 15% profit.

Goodluck all holders, it needs some positive news to get it moving again.

[Crypto Crude]

jdg-i agree about the lack on information coming from CUE. very frustrating. sold down a chunk of my holding last week. i still very much like the story and (at this stage) i'm planning to maintain the shares that i have left, but one of the things that excited me about CUE was its exploration pipeline. with cobra disappointing, zeus shot, no sign of spikey beach, and matariki seemingly put on the back burner, really it's only production development to look forward to. don't get me wrong, with upside from maari (including mania appraisal) and oyong gas on the horizon, we should see a lift in the sp, but it just doesn't look capable of the dream run that it once did. but for the sake of my remaining shares, shrewdy and others, i hope i'm proven wrong.


Hey JDG,
the removal of the Matariki exploration target is similarly emanated around the globe... When oil prices were booming at $140 US, there were 1500 drilling rigs operating onshore US... now there are only 800 rigs operating in that region...this will drive down contract rates to make these sorts of targets more attractive for the given level of oil price.....
There are only a handful of oil companies Worldwide stepping up exploration drilling... Exxon is one of them...
Spikey Beach wasnt really an exploration failure because it was not drilled...
it has been delayed with rig dificulties...
Cobra was a big success with a 34m gas and condensate zone... These Hedinia sandstones are present throughout the PPL 190 permit and along the fold belt, making this first sub trust play quite significant, and will come into play in down the line...
I dont really want to get into that now...
this discovery and others wont come into play until phase two of PNG LNG and are quite a few years away... its time to build our cashflows so down the line we can fund our PNG LNG commitments from our cash backing...
and Zeus was free carried...so not a disaster there...

overall, not a bad result for exploration drilling given the significance of Cobra, and no cost for Zeus, and undetermined Spikey which is simmering for awhile...

Im not doing anything with my CUE holdings until after Manaia, because I have strong confidence in this appraisal target.... I very very rarely call an exploration or appraisal target a success or failure before it has been drilled... This is going to be a success...

CUE has daily current production of 2720 BOPD... 175 BOPD from SE Gobe... 945 BOPD from Oyong oil... and 1600 BOPD from Maari...
NZO has daily production of 3500...
NZO is a 500million Mcap... and CUE is a 70M Mcap...
and CUE has larger 2P assets...

Its quite funny that Brut says CUE needs some positive news to get it moving again...yup... we need it moving...
the market must be factoring in alot of unforseen negatives...
We have the quarterly report coming within the next two weeks....

oh well...
It seems no major exploration activity coming...... with the market going boom box, and oil prices tanking... its probably the wisest things to reel in costs and reduce exploration drilling, and focus on production and development, and save $15/$20 million expenditure on Matariki depending on flow test or not....
I still honestly believe this is the best oil stock ive ever seen... yeah its the wrong oil price... yep the markets are falling, and the DOW is turning back south...
I wouldnt want to be holding any other small oil stock...
:cool:
.^sc

[ELYOB]

SC , just hearing that Matariki is delayed subject to JV further discussions re rig costs and a later time [ if HZN were to get a deal on PNG , exploration could be back here ] ; Spikey Beach is now programmed for 4th Quarter 2009 , this too could be about type of rig available , cost , and slots , etc.,.

[colinm_au]

T Boone keeps faith in $75 oil
News wires
Texas oil billionaire T Boone Pickens today reiterated his prediction that crude oil prices would hit $75 a barrel this year as producers scale back production.

Reuters quoted Pickens as saying in reference to Opecproducers: "They told you they want $75 by the end of the year, I would count on that, I believe them."

Opec has scaled back output to help support crude prices, which have dropped from record highs over $147 a barrel in July to around $47 a barrel today.

"I think you are going to clean up the stocks because the people who have the oil are cutting supply," Pickens said at an alternative fuels and vehicles conference, referring to the nearly 19-year high on US inventories of crude oil reported last week by the federal government.

The US would likely burn through its supply overhang in three months, he told Reuters.

CUE will be doing very nicely when oil returns to US$75 / bbl ...

[Corporate]

CUE has daily current production of 2720 BOPD... 175 BOPD from SE Gobe... 945 BOPD from Oyong oil... and 1600 BOPD from Maari...
NZO has daily production of 3500...
NZO is a 500million Mcap... and CUE is a 70M Mcap...
and CUE has larger 2P assets...

.^sc

SC becareful slinging round statements like that. You and I know there is both a lot more to the comparision....like $200m in the bank, kupe, pike.

[Financially dependant]

A lot of rumour flying around MEO atm......huge volume Friday on talk of a major farmin deal on the NW shelf......CUE has 15% steak so CUE could be the winner out of any deal.

With the finalising of 3D study big guns might want a slice of the action! Always throw in that the Chinese are interested to create some SP action...:)

[colinm_au]

I think you mean MEO! :)

[Corporate]

A lot of rumour flying around MOE atm......huge volume Friday on talk of a major farmin deal on the NW shelf......CUE has 15% steak so CUE could be the winner out of any deal.

With the finalising of 3D study big guns might want a slice of the action! Always throw in that the Chinese are interested to create some SP action...:)


Haha I like SC post on HC about MEO...and I fully agree MEO only worth cash backing.

[Crypto Crude]

yeah Corporate,
it is only worth that...
that could all change with a farm in partner...
there is some serious manipulation going on... either that, or the market is factoring in a high chance of a fully funded farm in partner coming fast.....
I very quickly glanced over the MEO presentation, and they are looking at a target SW of Zeus for the next well...

MEO really only has NWS assets.... so for a 40 million market cap, id want more than just that...
a stock like FAR provides much more exploration ommuffff with Senegal, and a much lower market cap.....
thats if your into the risk of exploration...
im also reading up on BUY, MMR, as both are planning a giant well for the sydney basin....
and this would be an exceptional BESBS play, as a trade...
:cool:
.^sc

[Corporate]

im also reading up on BUY, MMR, as both are planning a giant well for the sydney basin....
and this would be an exceptional BESBS play, as a trade...
:cool:
.^sc

Thanks for the heads up. If you've got time I'd appreciate your take on BUY? I don't no MMR at all.

Cheers
C

[Crypto Crude]

12.5centers gone...
CUE up 13% today...
stick in there...
back to 20c this year...
;)
.^sc

[STRAT]

12.5centers gone...
CUE up 13% today...
stick in there...
back to 20c this year...
;)
.^scChomp Chomp you reckon Shrewdy.

Im as glad as you to see the rise but hardly a four course meal being had. Afternoon tea n crackers more like :D:p

[Financially dependant]

Cue's quarterly...holding on to it's cash and development on track..

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?E=ASX&S=CUE&N=317186

[trackers]

Yup.. over $10million cash and $8million planned expenditure next period. And that's excluding all revenue from Maari (AUD$9.5mil odd from my calculations for the 1/4), and ongoing Oyong and SE Gobe production.

[boysy]

holding on to cash through drawing down of loan facilities. They have now used A$24.5 million of there 29 million credit facility. In saying this they still have A$10 million cash but how much more do they have to spend on development it could become a close run thing.

[Crypto Crude]

boysy-holding on to cash through drawing down of loan facilities. They have now used A$24.5 million of there 29 million credit facility. In saying this they still have A$10 million cash but how much more do they have to spend on development it could become a close run thing.


boysy,
a placement, cap raise now looks very unlikely, given much lower costs than the company projected at the start of the quarter...
CUE will finish the 2nd quarter with more cash than it started with...
we are entering a new phase as CUE's overall business becomes cashflow positive, (not just the Maari project), and with heavy development still in place...
Boy, oil prices falling were a set back... CUE stands up again and delivers more production.... late 3rd quarter is our next kick, add in another 1000 BOPD (BOE) from Oyong gas (min), and little boots until then with Maari increases...... ... we will be laughing later this year, next year... and hopefully we can get some drilling success to boot...
spikey, Manaia, Matariki hopefully, hopefully a MEO fully funded JV partner, Barikewa...

When development costs shrink late this year, then we will be away...
water injector coming online mid May, so flow rates will improve...
I will post a proper update this weekend...

great quarterly report...
:cool:
.^sc

[JBmurc]

Man CUE is letting down the side if this is your major holding Shrewd must be gutting to see alot of the others ROC,STX etc go up 50%+ over the short term
-
-if CUE was a player in a team he would be sent back to reserve grade-

Still holding just....

[Crypto Crude]

Quarterly report update....
well... I dont think ive ever done an examination of any report that turned out to be so inaccurate...
Remember that I predicted (with conservative assumptions) that CUE would have 10 million dollars available (cash, and loan), and I added in the expected oil sales from Maari up until the end of the quarter...
in the end what we now have is 10.23 Million of cash + 4.54 million left on the loan... and 21,043 barrels produced from Maari for the quarter...
worth about 1.4 million dollars...
so all up... $16.17 million dollars attainable, but the lifted oil has not yet been sold... I look at it like an accrued revenue...
so why the difference of 6 Million on my prediction...?
CUE estimated development costs for the quarter to be $13.058 M... infact, they were only 7.97 m... a major difference...
And I also had no idea of production costs, so I used a figure corresponding to the previous report, and used 5m... when infact it only came to 1.9m...
I still have no idea why they were so large for the dec quarter...
CUE also sold 81,376 barrels from Oyong Oil production, when CUE only sold 38,324 barrels in the previous quarter...

So all in all, on that note, the quarterly was great...

Production from Maari, is now up and running for the entire quarter, and enough on its own to pay for total development, exploration, and admin costs for the next quarter...
and then we have SE Gobe, and Oyong oil to grow our cash backing...
later this year when Development costs drop off, we should be easily able to grow cash at bank by 10 million dollars per quarter...
so technically, within three years, we will have more cash in bank than the current market cap...(depending on developments of the next leg)...

Also good to note that instead of drilling Matariki, the JV may develop the M2A sands which have around 12-16 million barrels of oil...
which could potentially add 500,000 barrels to CUE..

Also good, that Spikey is now planned for later in 2009...

and that Oyong Gas is still online for first production in September at a whopping 50 MMCF daily gas production...big rates...

It now looks extremely unlikely that CUE would need to raise funds...
as the end of the current quarter, its attributable cash from all sources will be higher than the start of the quarter...
I dont think there would be any small ASX oiler (under one hundred million market cap) which has a lower risk profile than CUE has...
and we have the leverage to boot...

exploration,spikey this year.... and others...
appraisal, Manaia, PNG
development, Indonesia
Production, diversified... Oyong oil, se gobe, Maari...

Maari is the total value of this company...
and everything else is for free...
so in time, there will have to be a strong re-rate...





Man CUE is letting down the side if this is your major holding Shrewd must be gutting to see alot of the others ROC,STX etc go up 50%+ over the short term
-
-if CUE was a player in a team he would be sent back to reserve grade-
Still holding just....
Hey JBM...
boy... If I let opportunity cost plays get me down, it would have eaten me alive years ago... like a pack of paranas...
If I look back over the years Ive had some amazing luck... I probably should have lost everything to MEO when I held 20k shares above 1.10... I admit I probably do not have the best trading mentality, I probably do get attached and emotional...
I try not too... My head is probably too big...
this has been a humbling experience...
I should have lost the lot to NWE... should have lost some with AKK...
ive been pretty lucky, and I dont mind waiting it out this time... I knew when I got into CUE that there were chances that it wasnt going to be a quick buck...
Im not letting up on CUE...Maari is the best production start up Ive seen in yonks... It has impressed me... and we are now gaining 4 million per month in revenues with a 75 million market cap, and all the other company treasures..... and overall production set to increase this year, next year...

Ive done big research... the falling oil price, has only delayed the inevitable run of CUE...
The spike of the SP can only delayed...
im happy for you that STX's sp is booming... I am very happy for other posters who have made good money... everybody take a turn...
Ive got to do this my way, ive been there done that...
I was rocking in a craddle, and before I roll in a hurst, I will be a self made man...
JBM,
mate, this is too sick... in the short term stocks can do anything...
but in the medium term, stocks AlWAYS trend to fair value...
only sell, if you think you can outperform for the given level of risk...
happy investing... keep in touch...
http://www.sjgs.com/spot.gif
..^thats me...

[ELYOB]

This will look very good esp in Sept09 quarterly ..... so much then ? So , waiting for OCT09 for the goods / fundamentals.

[Crypto Crude]

elyob,
If oil prices stayed in this range, and CUE didnt hit 20c by the end of the year, then Id seriously have to consider giving shares up...

I feel like hiding for a few weeks...
:(
.^sc

[JBmurc]

elyob,
If oil prices stayed in this range, and CUE didnt hit 20c by the end of the year, then Id seriously have to consider giving shares up...

I feel like hiding for a few weeks...
:(
.^sc

Yeah CUE certainly is good buying it's time will come(was only after a bite:) now if ROC or PSA etc go alot higher I'll prob take some profits an take a good sized position in CUE sub 14c 300-500,000 shares

[bermuda]

Yeah CUE certainly is good buying it's time will come(was only after a bite:) now if ROC or PSA etc go alot higher I'll prob take some profits an take a good sized position in CUE sub 14c 300-500,000 shares

JB,
Why wouldn't you get some more STX? Do you think CUE will outperform STX? I have an order in for more STX. I like CUE ( its okay ) but I am putting every dollar that comes my way on STX.

Grateful your opinion.

[JBmurc]

JB,
Why wouldn't you get some more STX? Do you think CUE will outperform STX? I have an order in for more STX. I like CUE ( its okay ) but I am putting every dollar that comes my way on STX.

Grateful your opinion.

I've currently already got 450,000 STX av 19c don't want to overweight on one share too much even if I liked it the most.. STX has always been along term hold for me

ROC PSA CUE are shorter term plays if one should make me 100%+ gains I'd most likely sell half an invest the funds into a share I believe is still well undervalued and not overweight in my portfilo

At this point ROC is rocking if it reaches say $1 an CUE is still sub 14c I'll be taking a larger share as CUE does have many postive's going for it like- Todd energy major shareholder etc

[trackers]

CUE up 8% on high turnover. Buyers outnumbering sellers 3:1..

[upside_umop]

Speeding ticket here we come...

[STRAT]

CUE up 8% on high turnover. Buyers outnumbering sellers 3:1..You might be onto something there Trackers. Fair amount going through at 13.5. Breakout of the 11 to 13 trading range we have been in since around 30th March?

[STRAT]

Speeding ticket here we come...lol ooooomop, Yeah Right :D

A break above 14 would be something to get excited about though

[upside_umop]

haha all i could see was a 'response to asx query'...turns out it relates to the quarterly.

[STRAT]

haha all i could see was a 'response to asx query'...turns out it relates to the quarterly.Yeah, they want to know if CUE is going broke :eek: Volume is up though

[JBmurc]

good to finally see CUE get out of the 12-13c trading range still pently sellers happy to come forward at 14c