Xro - xero

[robbo24]

I think this stock is ready to start punching it's way back up.
Vol over the last couple of days is heavier.
Weekly chart shows it has crossed the downtrend line and has consolidated.
Daily chart shows very tight bollingers.
Stockastic at oversold with a positive divergence.
Macd ready to continue rise.
Maybe there is news soon?

Woodward seem to have change their tune ever so slightly... Their last little blurb seems to consider that Xero may have a better shot in the US now they have payroll. Xero say they will not be releasing customer numbers for the Dec 14 quarter but the next one (March) will be very telling. Could start to see some "buy the rumour" with a view to selling the fact later on... :D:D:D:D

[longy]

I think this stock is ready to start punching it's way back up.
Vol over the last couple of days is heavier.
Weekly chart shows it has crossed the downtrend line and has consolidated.
Daily chart shows very tight bollingers.
Stockastic at oversold with a positive divergence.
Macd ready to continue rise.
Maybe there is news soon?

There has been some larger parcels changed hands right at the last minutes of trading days. Someone has been trying to stabilise the SP around $16. By the way... does any one knows if it is legal for shorters to operate in NZ? I know there are plenty on ASX market but little can be found on web in NZ.

[winner69]

Quarterly cash flow report due this week could provide some interesting insights

[robbo24]

So FMR announced becoming substantial holder on 9 December 2014... Now today they announce they have ceased being a substantial holder...

I wonder how well they did with their trading :D

[Santiago]

The question we all want to know is whether Xero is getting any traction in the US now it has payroll (for some) and quotes. Jan and Feb are the key months, so it's now we'd want to be seeing movement. Anyone have any thoughts/predictions? Here's one source- not sure how accurate it is, but seems to correlate with other countries with customer growth, sort of:

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=/m/02rsj7z&cmpt=q&geo=US

[couta1]

My prediction is that it bombs in the states and the SP hits $5 by year end
The problem with your prediction is that the states project is a long term one so using a year as a time frame is incorrect.

[skid]

In the very short term there could be pressure today from US markets rout --Its not some distant fear,but bad profit results from some big players.

[couta1]

What an interesting reply! The market doesn't care whether the states project is long term or not. IMHO, it will only give XRO to the end of this year to make it over there. And, if they don't make it, the SP will be punished accordingly (IMHO)
That's why those of us in for the long haul don't care about market fluctuations, think 5 years :cool:

[Harvey Specter]

What an interesting reply! The market doesn't care whether the states project is long term or not. IMHO, it will only give XRO to the end of this year to make it over there. And, if they don't make it, the SP will be punished accordingly (IMHO)What do you consider 'making it over there'. What percentage growth?

From memory they have about 20k north American customers. Need to see 100%+ annual growth but that is still only 40k customers - do you consider that bombing it?

[dingoNZ]

Remember they don't need to beat intuit, they just need to capture 'some' market share..

[couta1]

are you hoping to sell your shares on market at some stage? If so, then the market's perception matters very much! :)
And please tell me what the market perception will be in 5 yrs time when i want to sell?

[Harvey Specter]

I think the market will be more interested in profit over the course of the year. Customer numbers are only a rough proxy and overlook the costs of customer acquisition. Its a slightly useless metric, and I think the market will communicate that to xero this year. So, if they fail to converge on profitability by the end of the year, the market will punish them (IMHO, DYOR, etc)Well you should start shorting as I dont see any profit in the next year. Agree that customer numbers are only part of the equation, others being cost of acquisition, annual recurring revenue per use etc but those later two are reasonably well known.

[Casino]

After a lackluster start, Xero (http://www.forbes.com/companies/xero/)has changed tack and is chasing a direct sales approach (as opposed to selling through accounting practice partners) in the US and this looks like it might have legs.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/benkepes/2015/01/21/intuit-acquires-zeropaper-bric-opportunity-beckons/

[Harvey Specter]

Did I say that I was looking for another investment opportunity? Also, disagree that acquisition costs are well known, particularly in the US!No. but your conviction is strong, it seems a waste not to back it.

I thought they had broken this out in the last accounts. I'm sitting on the sidelines at the moment waiting to see US growth so may have that wrong.

[babymonster]

really want to sell my holding to day...

[Harvey Specter]

The costs of acquisition are unlikely to be linear, and may even increase as they attempt to court increasingly-marginal customers.Agree but given where they are at in the US, I hope they aren't upto the marginal customers already. It should be an S curve and they are (hopefully) at the bottom of that. NZ is up near the top so each new customer will be getting harder than the previous one.

For those that like an actual picture to visualize : http://clarecapital.co.nz/s-curves-saas-models/

[RGR367]

One less competitor for Xero? http://www.zdnet.com/article/myob-moves-upmarket-with-cloud-erp/

[Casino]

One less competitor for Xero? http://www.zdnet.com/article/myob-moves-upmarket-with-cloud-erp/

Pre-IPO pig lipstick.

[winner69]

Think today is last day for XRO quarterly cash flow to the ASX

Hope that this is not playing the good old late Friday afternoon in the hope that nobody will notice trick

[Baa_Baa]

Think today is last day for XRO quarterly cash flow to the ASX

Hope that this is not playing the good old late Friday afternoon in the hope that nobody will notice trick

Getting late isn't it ...

[winner69]

Maybe filed in alphabetical order?

I take it they still need to do one?

Hundreds of them coming through

[mikeybycrikey]

There may not need to be a disclosure. Looking at the listing rules, it seems that a company only needs to provide the quarterly cashflow for 8 quarters after listing.... which might be up now. Although the rules are pretty complex so I can't be sure.

[Baa_Baa]

I haven't see that bit about only 8 quarters. ASX reporting says that company's with June and Dec balance dates report quarterly. They last reported 31 Oct'14, so due again today. The reports are posted by time order.

[winner69]

There may not need to be a disclosure. Looking at the listing rules, it seems that a company only needs to provide the quarterly cashflow for 8 quarters after listing.... which might be up now. Although the rules are pretty complex so I can't be sure.

Looks like you be correct. They have done 8 so that's it

Casino mentioned that Rod wasn't going to give any quarterly customer numbers this time around. So maybe all we get now is half yearly updates.

Wonder what December cash burn was?

[winner69]

Rule 4.7B mentions this 8 quarter timeframe.

So I was wrong expecting one ....everybody in the dark until April / May now

Rod must be heading to the US .....did power shopping at icebreaker at airport yesterday ....ski jackets etc ....$1000 a minute he said

[RGR367]

Rule 4.7B mentions this 8 quarter timeframe.

So I was wrong expecting one ....everybody in the dark until April / May now

Rod must be heading to the US .....did power shopping at icebreaker at airport yesterday ....ski jackets etc ....$1000 a minute he said

There's that XEROCON in 11 days so surely we will hear/read something about their numbers even at least for UK alone. And I'm cautiously optimistic :)

[Baa_Baa]

Youre' probably right, and I haven't read that rule, but get this, there's 2179 company's listed on ASX and at 5:45pm Aus time 435 or so company's reports have already been posted with the words 'quarterly cashflow' in the title. A lot more just have the quarterly in the title. Reporting will go on until 7:30pm Aus time. So in round numbers it's hard to see that so many company reports are coming in if it's not an obligation to report, rather than not having to report after 8 quarters. Anyway, I don't know for sure, someone probably knows this stuff inside out, maybe they can enlighten. If not there's an hour and a half to go before reporting stops. I guess it's obvious that we'd like to see how XRO are doing, another 3 months of no numbers and the share price looks really vulnerable as it hovers around the low $15's.



There may not need to be a disclosure. Looking at the listing rules, it seems that a company only needs to provide the quarterly cashflow for 8 quarters after listing.... which might be up now. Although the rules are pretty complex so I can't be sure.

[winner69]

I've always thought Xerocon as word has bad connotations

[RGR367]

I've always thought Xerocon as word has bad connotations
:) It always does as when the news is bad the head just go limp. lol

[Baa_Baa]

XRO filed a quarterly report to end Dec 2014 with ASX, it was published at 5:55pm Aus time.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01595293

[winner69]

XRO filed a quarterly report to end Dec 2014 with ASX, it was published at 5:55pm Aus time.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01595293


Just in the nick of time .....was it the old hope they don't notice trick?

Spose Monday morning on the NZX

[winner69]

Revenues up 81% .....good but no real surge

Wage bill $24m (some to go to iP sometime) compared to $11m Dec 13. All those people need to be paid

Cash burn $23m (did include monchilla) so perhaps enough cash for the next couple of years

Still a case of believe the story .....keep spending until you make it big.

[BFG]

Just in the nick of time .....was it the old hope they don't notice trick?

Spose Monday morning on the NZX

Nothing out of the ordinary. Do note the massive amount of quarterlies coming out yesterday on the ASX, many after close.

Nothing to see here people, shuffle on :)

[Baa_Baa]

I was focused on one thing, sustained customer growth, only because I think it's important that the CEO's promises are fulfilled 'growth at 80%', which they seem to have achieved in aggregate. So that's promising.

The report however doesn't contain all the ARPU and other numbers some here expect, and neither does it have a breakdown of growth by market (which would inform about success in the USA), so I expect some disappointment as a result of that lack of detail.

Overall, I'm impressed that Xero seems to have sustained growth, but I'm concerned whether that growth is coming from the all important USA market. These high-level quarterly reports are a double-edged-sword. The company can be making its growth targets, but if it's not clear where it's coming from, then the forward earnings potential is also unclear.

I still think Xero is over priced at $15 or so. There is a lot of optimism in the SP at present against the numbers reported, though while encouraging, they aren't illuminating enough to suggest that they are cracking ahead with the golden goose, the USA.

In that respect I'd anticipate Monday some initial price appreciation from the optimists followed by another three months of decline. Possibly wrong as no one seems to be able to realistically value XRO.

The price chart isn't pretty either. Basically on Friday, yeah the last trading day, it triple-bottomed on the barely rising trendline from the Oct'14 low at $15. Just a smidgeon under that, is the longer term trendline going back to Apr'13. $15 is an extremely important support. So the question is, is it enough support without hard evidence about growth in the USA?

I don't think so. $11 seems reasonable to me, but $7 is the number that make the most sense, which is where the US story emerged and the share price got legs. Scary as it may seem.

What's everyone else thinking?

BAA


Revenues up 81% .....good but no real surge

Wage bill $24m (some to go to iP sometime) compared to $11m Dec 13. All those people need to be paid

Cash burn $23m (did include monchilla) so perhaps enough cash for the next couple of years

Still a case of believe the story .....keep spending until you make it big.

[Baa_Baa]

A department of the ASX posts the company's quarterly reporting to their website, they work through to at least 7:30pm Aus time. They seemed to have worked a bit of over overtime on Friday as well. Can't equate the time that the XRO report hit the AXS website with the actual time XRO reported, or the 'close'.


Nothing out of the ordinary. Do note the massive amount of quarterlies coming out yesterday on the ASX, many after close. ... [snip]

[Santiago]

I agree that the U.S. is the big prize, but having said that, if the growth is still accumulating in Aust and the UK at this stage, what's wrong with that? There's still a long long way to go in both markets- Aust on its own could hit a million customers one day, and the UK could be far beyond that. I still see the US as at the very beginning of the curve, and as a holder while of course I'd love to see the numbers explode there, I'm more interested in where they will be in a couple of years. The big months in the US and the UK are Jan thru March. Aust is July. If they have managed to maintain 80% growth in the third quarter of calendar 2014, which should be their slowest quarter, then I'm happy. Their strongest customer acquisition occurs right now, so I can understand why they don't want to release numbers after their slowest quarter. Figures for end-March will be much more illuminating on how they're tracking year on year, and they do normally give updates broken down into regions on a 6-monthy basis (with the occasional update outside of that cycle when they hit a milestone). For example, expect something from Xerocon in the UK soon. All in all, 80% growth maintained, revenue growth starting to outpace spending growth as hiring slows, cash in the bank, annualized run-rate at around $120m it would seem and growing fast, exchange rate much more favorable, product gaps being addressed, reviews looking good. On the downside, high cost of customer acquisition in the US, competition getting its act together, product still not fully complete, cash burn remains high, exchange rate not so favorable if paying salaries from NZ... If you're a holder or not, it's a fascinating journey. I think unless they make some startling announcement at Xerocon UK we may see share price drift (agree with you). As a company they won 2013, lost 2014, and I reckon are clever enough to have learned and to win 2015 (in simple terms). For me, par in their March report would be 480k customers. I'd want to see the US to have doubled year on year. I'm more interested, though, in how the UK and Aust are tracking.

[Santiago]

And, having bashed all of that out, what I would really live to know is if they could break down revenue and cost per market. Does the model work? Are they profitable in NZ? Might be hard to do as development costs are global, but if it were somehow measure able, and if they were profitable in NZ and perhaps Aust as their most mature markets, that's would give me a whole load of confidence about the cost/revenue curve...

[couta1]

Interesting how the non holders like to come up with all sorts of cherry picked share price valuations so as a holder I've got one $25 by the end of this year based on continued 80% growth,,sounds good to me and I'm sticking with it:cool:

[Baa_Baa]

The market is valuing XRO $15.64 at the moment. It is not cherry picking prices to point out the previous market price support points under the current price, around $11 and beneath that about $7. Disappointment sends prices down, so it remains to be seen whether the market is sufficiently disappointed with the numbers, or lack of detail in the numbers, that support breaks here, or happy enough with the numbers that they buy. Overhead price resistance points are too numerous to mention, particularly if $25 is the target, the monthly closing price in Aug'14.


Interesting how the non holders like to come up with all sorts of cherry picked share price valuations so as a holder I've got one $25 by the end of this year based on continued 80% growth,,sounds good to me and I'm sticking with it:cool:

[winner69]

Baa baa ....this was just a quarterly cash flow report stating movements in cash and current cash position.

XRO did comment on appropriate points to clarify movements.

The revenues stated is cash received from customers - the revenues in the P&L will be different so a cash flow statement is only indicative of actual revenues. They will be much the same though.

Casino did remind us that Rod had stated there won't be a quarterly update of customer numbers this time around ...we all need to wait eh

[Harvey Specter]

They will be out of cash in 18 months. Which means a capital raising will occur in the next 12 months.
Tick tock, tick tock....There cash outflow is improve (ignoring acquisitions). There will be a capital raising in the next 18m - on the Nasdaq. They just need to ensure the US customer number is gong up fast to make sure that is a success. time will tell.

[kanaka]

They will be out of cash in 18 months. Which means a capital raising will occur in the next 12 months.
Tick tock, tick tock....

18 months is a very long time, my guess is that the increase in customer numbers will more than balance the cash burn.

[winner69]

As Harvey says next cap raising on the Nasdaq.

To that end all looking good as Rod says milestones all being met
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/businessnews

[kanaka]

As Harvey says next cap raising on the Nasdaq.

To that end all looking good as Rod says milestones all being met
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/businessnews

When they list on the Nasdaq would they need to do a capital raising? From memory when they listed on the ASX no capital raising was involved, but then they are different beasts in different habitats.

[winner69]

When they list on the Nasdaq would they need to do a capital raising? From memory when they listed on the ASX no capital raising was involved, but then they are different beasts in different habitats.

Many think they need more money in 18-24 months time, only $145m left

Nasdaq seems logical place to do it.

[couta1]

18 months is a very long time, my guess is that the increase in customer numbers will more than balance the cash burn.
As pointed out in this post capital raise may not be necessary.

[skid]

Interesting how the non holders like to come up with all sorts of cherry picked share price valuations so as a holder I've got one $25 by the end of this year based on continued 80% growth,,sounds good to me and I'm sticking with it:cool:

I think if you studied the psychology of investing (which is really what resistance and charts are telling us)it would make more sense.

At some stage,even if a share is going down, it starts to become a what alot consider a good value (at that lower price) and investors jump in so, resistance level is that point. (when PEB went down to .65 I thought it was worth a punt at that price and I guess alot of others thought the same (that time) and it turned out to be a resistance point --(the bottom in that case) Conversely when a share goes up so much that alot start to think its gotten ahead of itself in terms of value,they opt out.
Your $25 may come to pass,but I dont think it will be because investors have all chosen a price and are ''sticking with it'' Its ever changing.

[Harvey Specter]

When they list on the Nasdaq would they need to do a capital raising? From memory when they listed on the ASX no capital raising was involved, but then they are different beasts in different habitats.I think you would need to raise some new capital, just to ensure some liquidity, unless it is just a sell down from large investors which wouldn't be a good sign.

For the ASX they issued 1 share (requirement as you cant list iwthout raising more capital) but I think they were relying on transtasman funds to supply liquidity, plus secrettly hope the shortage drove the price up.

Even if they dont technically need more cash, I think they would want some anyway, just to ensure they have a big buffer. Look at Uber, it just raised $1B, then went straight back and raised another billion. It doesn't need all that cash but you get it while you can and for Xero, they would be doing the hard sell for the listing so may as well get some cash out of it.

[kanaka]

Many think they need more money in 18-24 months time, only $145m left

Nasdaq seems logical place to do it.

My thoughts are that if they still need funds in 18 months time then they will have wasted the money they have spent in not attracting enough customers to reverse the cash drain. Time will tell

[Harvey Specter]

My thoughts are that if they still need funds in 18 months time then they will have wasted the money they have spent in not attracting enough customers to reverse the cash drain. Time will tellMy thought is they wont 'need' them but they will take them anyway for the next push into the US (ie. change of goal form 1m customers to 10m customers). If they 'need' them, the share price will be lower than it is today.

[couta1]

SP could be ready for a move up ? Read a nice little article in the Dom Post on Saturday about Xro gaining significant traction in the UK and expecting 100% growth again for the year.

[Leftfield]

SP could be ready for a move up ? Read a nice little article in the Dom Post on Saturday about Xro gaining significant traction in the UK and expecting 100% growth again for the year.

Yes interesting. Last week I was talking to a senior UK based Kiwi accountant who said that when their firm adopted XRO (in the UK) there were many skeptics, however their UK clients are now strong advocates for XRO and love the immediacy of real time reports etc.

In this accountant's reckoning XRO now has the majority of the UK small business market.

Disc - happy holder.

[Harvey Specter]

SP could be ready for a move up ? Read a nice little article in the Dom Post on Saturday about Xro gaining significant traction in the UK and expecting 100% growth again for the year.That was probably based on the UK XeroCon where they announced customer numbers of 60k, 100% growth and expecting to repeat. Most seemed to miss that those customer numbers were from the Sept half year (last time they provided a full split) and the story hasn't changed since then. NZHerald even reported in the in briefs section as if it was new news.

Having said that, payroll now in the UK and expected before year end (or should I say new financial year) in NZ which will help those using MYOB for payroll.

[gv1]

Insider buying?

[couta1]

SP could be ready for a move up ? Read a nice little article in the Dom Post on Saturday about Xro gaining significant traction in the UK and expecting 100% growth again for the year.
Yep those Bolly Bands were squeezed so up she goes:cool:

[skid]

You reading charts now coutts?--good on ya--ofcourse bollenger bands compressing can mean a breakout either way--but looks like it went the right direction this time so good news -congrats

[Hawkeye]

Bit of a jump today kids..... why?

[Xerof]

Bit of a jump today kids..... why?Ask Winston Peters to abuse the FMA for not looking into this clearly identifiable insider trading activity. He should get a reply for you. Jeez, we can't have share price movements happening without a full investigation

dig at WP not you Hawkeye

[winner69]

Bit of a jump today kids..... why?

Bollinger Bands breakout so they say

[winner69]

Bit of a jump today kids..... why?

Quite often the share price gets a boost after he exciting times at a Xerocon. Maybe a bit of loose talk about customer numbers or just another set of punters who think they have to get in fast.

Jeez, I hate that word Xerocon ......con has bad connotations.

[Harvey Specter]

Quite often the share price gets a boost after he exciting times at a Xerocon.Volume looks low so could just be this.

[Baa_Baa]

Low volume and up she goes. The media report "on no news" but there is news, and has been for a few days. Just go check out the disclosures on NZX of insiders positions, they are all buying. Good news around the corner seems almost certain, though, that would be insider trading wouldn't it? The trolls will be here shortly to clear up any misconceptions.

BAA

[mikeybycrikey]

Low volume and up she goes. The media report "on no news" but there is news, and has been for a few days. Just go check out the disclosures on NZX of insiders positions, they are all buying. Good news around the corner seems almost certain, though, that would be insider trading wouldn't it? The trolls will be here shortly to clear up any misconceptions.

BAA

Did you look through the disclosures? Most of them seemed to be grants of options or RSUs as part of a salary package. No purchases at all. In fact, there were quite a few sales by Stuart McLean as part of the process of him leaving his role as Chief Revenue officer.

[Baa_Baa]

Sorry, you're right, they're not buying, they're being given options, at around $16.4. Have you seen any restrictions on exercising them? Still nice timing if there's a good news announcement due soon. Am not too concerned with Mr McLeans situation.


Did you look through the disclosures? Most of them seemed to be grants of options or RSUs as part of a salary package. No purchases at all. In fact, there were quite a few sales by Stuart McLean as part of the process of him leaving his role as Chief Revenue officer.

[Bilbo]

Low volume and up she goes. The media report "on no news" but there is news, and has been for a few days. Just go check out the disclosures on NZX of insiders positions, they are all buying. Good news around the corner seems almost certain, though, that would be insider trading wouldn't it? The trolls will be here shortly to clear up any misconceptions.

BAA

Went to $17.40 AUD (which is $18NZD) in the last hour of trading on ASX and closed at $16.99, so the sp continued to rise after the nzx closed, which could be a good sign for tomorrow. Maybe growth stocks are coming back in favour :)

[psychic]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/market-close-shares-fall-led-fletcher-outlook-meridian-rises-record-bd-168850

Xero was the best performer on the benchmark index, up 5.3 percent to a near three-month high of $17.27. The cloud-based accounting firm came under selling pressure which saw its shareprice drop from a high of $45.99 in March to as low as $15 as investors mulled the outlook for growth, particularly in the US. A single investor had been "sitting on the stock quite a lot, whether they've taken their foot off which has seen a bit of the sell pressure easing," Forsyth Barr's Price said

Another view

[Bilbo]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/market-close-shares-fall-led-fletcher-outlook-meridian-rises-record-bd-168850

Xero was the best performer on the benchmark index, up 5.3 percent to a near three-month high of $17.27. The cloud-based accounting firm came under selling pressure which saw its shareprice drop from a high of $45.99 in March to as low as $15 as investors mulled the outlook for growth, particularly in the US. A single investor had been "sitting on the stock quite a lot, whether they've taken their foot off which has seen a bit of the sell pressure easing," Forsyth Barr's Price said

Another view

Would love to know who the "single seller" has been. Sell side looking quite thin right now.

[couta1]

Would love to know who the "single seller" has been. Sell side looking quite thin right now.
She's a pretty picture Bilbo:cool:

[Everwood]

It is nice to see the stock going back up again, but I'm not getting my hopes up yet. I'm still waiting to hear more positive news around numbers.

[couta1]

It is nice to see the stock going back up again, but I'm not getting my hopes up yet. I'm still waiting to hear more positive news around numbers.
I'm excited to see it humming again nether the less and the sellers look thin.

[gv1]

Aussies buying into NZ Co. Well they could see value in it.

[Bilbo]

I'm excited to see it humming again nether the less and the sellers look thin.

Up 10% in the day now. Wonder how far it needs to go before they get a "please explain". Given there has been no news the rapid rise over the past 3 days is interesting. Not that I am complaining :)

[couta1]

Up 10% in the day now. Wonder how far it needs to go before they get a "please explain". Given there has been no news the rapid rise over the past 3 days is interesting. Not that I am complaining :)
Man if this keeps going ill be breaking even by tomorrow,glad i averaged down from $42.

[Bilbo]

Man if this keeps going ill be breaking even by tomorrow,glad i averaged down from $42.

Well done couta1. What is your average buy price now?

[couta1]

Well done couta1. What is your average buy price now?
Its about $22, cheers

[couta1]

grand kids well be pleased.
Sure will and a few more ski trips to boot, I have to admit I'm tempted to sell my averaging down amount and buy them back cheaper if this price doesn't hold, the old 2 bites of the cherry idea.

[gbogo]

i hear there that some of the buying is in anticipation of US listing. not new but.. volume is very low, so i'm not convinced. big overhead resistance at $20. if it gets up there, i will offer out and try to buy back lower.

[theace]

Please explain sent ... and responded to!

[couta1]

Please explain sent ... and responded to!
Yep no probs, let's move on.

[blobbles]

Do they ever say "Oh, yes, we forgot to tell the market of a new product just launched. Whoops."?

I somehow doubt they would ever do it, but you never know...

[bull....]

ya have to sell when they do these please explains lol anyway 30 jan nice candle started the move, also lower low confirmed short squeeze happened talking aus stock price where you can long and short

[Baa_Baa]

Edit: There is some product news. http://www.itwire.com/business-it-news/accounting-software/67017-awesome-inventory-management-arriving-soon-in-xero .. on the 18th from Xero Australia managing director Chris Ridd.

The Oz XRO Roadshow started 2nd Feb, right when the price picked up, and yesterday Feb 18 was the Melbourne event, a big one for them, co-incidentaly(?) that was the day after XRO opened and closed above its 50day EMA, and it bolted on slim volume, then again today again as the flock wade in. So one wonders if the break-upwards is purely technical as there's no obvious public news, except a few insiders getting their options, or whether something has been said at the Roadshow that hasn't filtered out to the market yet. Reporting isn't until May, so what has set the fire under XRO?

[RGR367]

Edit: There is some product news. http://www.itwire.com/business-it-news/accounting-software/67017-awesome-inventory-management-arriving-soon-in-xero .. on the 18th from Xero Australia managing director Chris Ridd.

The Oz XRO Roadshow started 2nd Feb, right when the price picked up, and yesterday Feb 18 was the Melbourne event, a big one for them, co-incidentaly(?) that was the day after XRO opened and closed above its 50day EMA, and it bolted on slim volume, then again today again as the flock wade in. So one wonders if the break-upwards is purely technical as there's no obvious public news, except a few insiders getting their options, or whether something has been said at the Roadshow that hasn't filtered out to the market yet. Reporting isn't until May, so what has set the fire under XRO?

And here's more on the Oz Roadshow http://www.digitalfirst.com/2015/02/19/xero-roadshow-highlights-upcoming-features-xero/ Would those accountants and bookkeepers also started buying shares after they have told what's coming within 90 days? I like the spike but "please explain" is probably also in order. Gut feel, this is NOW another start to higher XRO price prior to USA IPO.

[Baa_Baa]

Good find. Product releases in the next 90 days will no doubt be nicely timed for and ahead of reporting dates. I'm not sure why we have to be Sherlock Holmes, or physically attend the roadshows, to find out these things that are reported in a timely way only in the Aus IT media? Why wouldn't Xero announce it properly themselves?

Who thinks the product announcements in themselves are worth the current $2-3 on the shareprice? .. which on NZX turned away from overhead resistance bang on $19, but has continued up to $18.78 close on ASX ($19.36 NZ)? Hard to read this share, the spike to $19 in Nov'14 was followed by a progressive decline back to $15's. Is product news enough to keep air in the tyres?


And here's more on the Oz Roadshow http://www.digitalfirst.com/2015/02/19/xero-roadshow-highlights-upcoming-features-xero/ Would those accountants and bookkeepers also started buying shares after they have told what's coming within 90 days? I like the spike but "please explain" is probably also in order. Gut feel, this is NOW another start to higher XRO price prior to USA IPO.

[Harvey Specter]

The only new thing there appears to be tax Xero tax will be separate, and the Aus customer growth which is not detailed enough other than to say they are still growing quickly.

Price spike happens every time there is an Oz conference.

[kanaka]

My take on the recent share price rise and the previous times that they have gone for a run is that they are a very tightly held share with not too many loose shares on offer. That is why they tend to get over-bought on not too much volume - supply and demand. Over the years accountancy firms and others have been squirreling away shares for their Super funds, especially after the ASX listing so that in turn decreases the number of shares on offer. So what will happen when they get NASDAQ listing could be explosive especially if that is on the back of an increase in US customers and potential shareholders.
I have been holding since the IPO and once you get into their orbit you are smitten - Love my Xero. I've been on the ride of my life and enjoying every minute of it.

[RGR367]

The only new thing there appears to be tax Xero tax will be separate, and the Aus customer growth which is not detailed enough other than to say they are still growing quickly.

Price spike happens every time there is an Oz conference.

Or was that because on the affirmation once again that XRO UK is growing at least at 100%. Those watching this stock should not let that bit of a story just go away without doing/buying the stock.

[couta1]

Looks like Xro will break the MA200 if it keeps going at this rate, very cool.

[kanaka]

My take on the recent share price rise and the previous times that they have gone for a run is that they are a very tightly held share with not too many loose shares on offer. That is why they tend to get over-bought on not too much volume - supply and demand. Over the years accountancy firms and others have been squirreling away shares for their Super funds, especially after the ASX listing so that in turn decreases the number of shares on offer. So what will happen when they get NASDAQ listing could be explosive especially if that is on the back of an increase in US customers and potential shareholders.
I have been holding since the IPO and once you get into their orbit you are smitten - Love my Xero. I've been on the ride of my life and enjoying every minute of it.

$20 broken, not many sellers - One at $45 - dreaming?

[Baa_Baa]

Bulltrap? just saying. Be careful.


$20 broken, not many sellers - One at $45 - dreaming?

[skid]

$20 broken, not many sellers - One at $45 - dreaming?

The bids probably go down to about $5 as well(they can only fit so many on the screen---everyone needs a dream...

[kanaka]

Bulltrap? just saying. Be careful.

another seller at $60.00
if you buy at these levels you have to be prepared for a rough ride, but should end up in the money

[twotic]

The bids probably go down to about $5 as well(they can only fit so many on the screen---everyone needs a dream...
The point is that the depth is so thin on the sell side that you can actually see offers for $45 and $60.....

[RGR367]

And on the ESTABLISHMENT (Intuit) here's their report ending 31 January '15 ......... http://investors.intuit.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2015/Intuit-Delivers-Strong-Second-quarter-Results-QuickBooks-Online-Subscribers-Grow-50-Percent/default.aspx?linkId=12459784

The rebel XRO will be catching soon, I think :)

[skid]

The bids are thinner atm--not much in the thousands---still...good phase for XRO--congrates to all holders

[kanaka]

The point is that the depth is so thin on the sell side that you can actually see offers for $45 and $60.....

I'll be putting in one for $100 just as soon as I can find my FIN number

[twotic]

The bids are thinner atm--not much in the thousands---still...good phase for XRO--congrates to all holders
Are you sure about that?? Like you said yourself, there are almost certainly a whole lot more bids that you can't see on the DB depth chart (which is what I am assuming most are using! On the other hand, on the sell side at the time of writing there are 12 asks in total. I would have thought its pretty clear to most that the sell side is looking pretty bloody thin. Of course this is reflected in part by 25%+ gains over the last few trading days.

EDIT: Volume of visible bids ~= 9000 down to $18 compared to volume of total asks ~=9000 up to $60 => pretty obvious conclusion one would have though ;)

[couta1]

The bids probably go down to about $5 as well(they can only fit so many on the screen---everyone needs a dream...
Now come on skid keep that can of cold water over at Peb and let us savour the tide turn.

[couta1]

The bids are thinner atm--not much in the thousands---still...good phase for XRO--congrates to all holders
If you want to catch a lot of fish(Staunch fisho talking) you don't dump a whole drum of food over the side of the boat just use a berley pot that lets out a little at a time and keeps the fish coming back for more.

[Copper]

can not be a dream if it has happened in reality before.....no repeat today though

fairly low volume and rise has run out of steam early today....expect friday afternoon sell down on profit taking
Every time it looks like your profit taking there is another burst of buying.This seems to have some steam we were caught short on........

[skid]

Now come on skid keep that can of cold water over at Peb and let us savour the tide turn.

I said Xro is having a good run and congrates to all holding--and ill say the same to the folks over at PEB if it ever gets there:)
Enjoy the rise.

[couta1]

I said Xro is having a good run and congrates to all holding--and ill say the same to the folks over at PEB if it ever gets there:)
Enjoy the rise.
It will skid just believe (Oh and add a prayer as well) :cool:

[skid]

It will skid just believe (Oh and add a prayer as well) :cool:

That pretty well sums it up

[sb9]

Up she goes and down she comes....:confused:

[Toasty]

Up she goes and down she comes....:confused:

I had to turn the charts off because I was getting seasick.

[Baa_Baa]

I had to turn the charts off because I was getting seasick.

Some might be interested to see on the daily chart how XRO responded during the past few days to very long term resistance lines and the 200day EMA. The slightly rising red lines date back to old support, which becomes resistance when they fail.

Look how the price almost perfectly over the past few days breaks up from the 50day EMA, bolts up to the resistance in the $17's and closes. Next day it bolts up again, tests resistance just over $19 and closes a smidge under. Next day it gaps up to the next resistance at mid $20's which happens to also be the 200day EMA. Then today it folds back to $18.25 (not on the chart). These lines haven't been drawn on the chart in the last day or so, they've been there for months and even years! Makes you wonder doesn't it?
BAA

[Hoop]

Some might be interested to see on the daily chart how XRO responded during the past few days to very long term resistance lines and the 200day EMA. The slightly rising red lines date back to old support, which becomes resistance when they fail.

Look how the price almost perfectly over the past few days breaks up from the 50day EMA, bolts up to the resistance in the $17's and closes. Next day it bolts up again, tests resistance just over $19 and closes a smidge under. Next day it gaps up to the next resistance at mid $20's which happens to also be the 200day EMA. Then today it folds back to $18.25 (not on the chart). These lines haven't been drawn on the chart in the last day or so, they've been there for months and even years! Makes you wonder doesn't it?
BAA

Great Charts and analysis Baa Baa... the technicals can be amazing huh?

[Baa_Baa]

Great Charts and analysis Baa Baa... the technicals can be amazing huh?

Thanks Hoop appreciate your kind thoughts. For sure the charts are often eye opening insights, I wouldn't be in the market without them myself. You'll know that a large % of trades are automated, particularly on the bigger bourses and major players, and to think they do it without analysing price action is ludicrous, after all they're just computer algorithms at work. Whether it's the collective 'the borg?' responding to itself is immaterial, it's just a very simple way of identifying where the money starts, flows, ebbs and stops.

Later,
BAA

[bull....]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/XRO/announcements/261115

why the price went up - look for big jump today i reckon lol the chart never lies

[Harvey Specter]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/XRO/announcements/261115

why the price went up - look for big jump today i reckon lol the chart never liesWTF - makes their response to the please explain a big fat lie.

[twotic]

WTF - makes their response to the please explain a big fat lie.

Haha, that's what I was thinking as well.....

That aside, this is a pretty impressive announcement and one which should put the SP back on that upward trend, for a while at least....

[dingoNZ]

WTF - makes their response to the please explain a big fat lie.

If you look at how they worded their announcement, not exactly.



Dear Fraser

Price Enquiry regarding Xero Limited (“Xero”)We are responding to your letter dated today.We confirm that Xero continues to comply with its continuous disclosure obligations under the NZX Listing Rules, including Listing Rule 10.1.1.

Yours faithfully

Matt Vaughan
Company Secretary

[Harvey Specter]

If you look at how they worded their announcement, not exactly.If you assume that the increase in price is because someone found out about this, rather than a seller finishing up, they the information was out and the continuous disclosure obligations weren't met.

The FMA should be looking into this to see if there was any main buyer and if they could have in anyway known this was in the works.

[dingoNZ]

If you assume that the increase in price is because someone found out about this, rather than a seller finishing up, they the information was out and the continuous disclosure obligations weren't met.

The FMA should be looking into this to see if there was any main buyer and if they could have in anyway known this was in the works.

I absolutely agree with you, it is very dodgy

[Harvey Specter]

I absolutely agree with you, it is very dodgyIt may be dodgy. The reason I think the FMA should look into it (and hopefully give the all clear) is to give confidence in the market. The problem is the FMA (almost) never prosecutes so it is hard to have confidence in them. The Milford Funds allegation will be interesting to follow.

[Bjauck]

The FMA would be busy...they should investigate the run-up in SUM's price prior to their results announcement too.

[couta1]

I absolutely agree with you, it is very dodgy
I'm just excited,so much for the advice of not averaging down during a down trend I took a big punt on this by putting a lot of money in to drop my average buy in down to $22 and its paid off:t_up:

[Daytr]

Funny there is never a please explain when a SP is tanking!
So dilution & increase in costs is what I'm reading.
At least the CR was at a good level compared to where the SP has been trading, in fact quite a nice premium.
I almost jumped in when the SP was below $15! DOH.
Be keeping a close eye, on this but Rod Drury needs to reign in the sales spin & start delivering imo.
And stop increasing costs!

[kanaka]

If there was anything dodgy why did the price slip so much yesterday

[Mista_Trix]

I'm just excited,so much for the advice of not averaging down during a down trend I took a big punt on this by putting a lot of money in to drop my average buy in down to $22 and its paid off:t_up:

Well done mate, good to see you with a (forwards looking) win under the belt - been a long time coming on a couple of yours :-S

[Baa_Baa]

Oh that awkward 'diluted shareholdings' feeling. Sigh.
Why wouldn't XRO give the public market a chance to raise capital?
Other listed companies would be lambasted for this behaviour.
And now with $285m in pot, don't expect any profit any time soon, or later.

[Shore]

The great news is that they've hopefully turned the US market around from the dismal last numbers and might be seeing some decent traction now.

[gbogo]

The FMA would be busy...they should investigate the run-up in SUM's price prior to their results announcement too.

and SLI yesterday... it destroys my confidence in the market. Take my money and invest offshore in properly-regulated markets.

[Harvey Specter]

Funny there is never a please explain when a SP is tanking!Of course there is. Xro got a couple.


If there was anything dodgy why did the price slip so much yesterdayTrue. but maybe the inside trader had all they wanted. ;) Not saying it is dodgy, just the FMA needs to clear it.

[twotic]

It will be interesting to see what this announcement does to the SP.... It is quite similar to the Oct 2013 announcement:

"Xero Limited (XRO) has raised NZ$180 million of new capital from a range of US and New Zealand investors including existing shareholders Matrix Capital Management and the Peter Thiel backed Valar Ventures. The transactions are priced at NZ$18.15 per share for 9.92 million shares representing 8% of the shares on issue after the raise."

Which, of course lifted the SP about 50% from roughly $18 to $29 over a week, and over a month up around 100% from $18 to $36.

I personally doubt this will have the same level of impact, however, after keeping a pretty close eye on the XRO SP over the years, one would have to assume there is a bit more to come than we have already seen today. Watch for post lunchtime trading over the next few days when the OZ's then then ASIA jump on board, and of course tomorrow after those in the US have had a chance to digest the news. My guess is that XRO holders will have a few days at least to savour this news.

Congrats holders for being patient during the down turn!!

[kanaka]

Oh that awkward 'diluted shareholdings' feeling. Sigh.
Why wouldn't XRO give the public market a chance to raise capital?
Other listed companies would be lambasted for this behaviour.
And now with $285m in pot, don't expect any profit any time soon, or later.

They did a few years ago when the price was in the single figures, took full advantage of the situation to increase my stake to over 20,000
Didn't HNZ do something similar a few months ago?
and CRP was doing it all the time

[bull....]

25 be a good tartget

[twotic]

I thought they had $180 million in the bank. They must be burning cash crazy fast to be raising more already. Condolences to all holders. Would seriously suggest exiting on this blip. It aint gonna last long...

Haha, I like this post - such strong opinions for someone with apparently such little knowledge of the company ;)

[couta1]

Couta. Its hit $22. What are you going to do? Sell half, and lock in a stop loss at $21 for the rest??
Sold down my averaging down portion which I bought at $16.35, I have a strategy to pull down my average to below $20 ( Will let you know if it works) My average was actually $22.80.

[skid]

CONGRATULATIONS COUTS! Glad to hear you are employing a strategy now that you are approx even--Averaging down can be risky but it appears to have worked for you.(you may have dodged a bullet on this one):) Hopefully careful planning will see you good from here.

[Bilbo]

I thought they had $180 million in the bank. They must be burning cash crazy fast to be raising more already. Condolences to all holders. Would seriously suggest exiting on this blip. It aint gonna last long...

I see nothing but positives in this announcement. The thing I love about Xero and the way they listed on the NZX so early, is that it gave retail investors an opportunity to get in before, or invest alongside, some of the most savvy tech investors in the world. You don't usually get a chance to to that. Imagine having been able to invest in Orion or Vend at the same stage as the VCs, or Facebook, Twitter etc. That is the opportunity early investors had with xero, and IMHO an opportunity which still exists, but remember VC investing is for the long term - 5+ years. I intend to hold XRO for longer so don't care about daily price fluctuations.

Take a look at the companies Accel have backed and read this comment from them "We've worked with several other leading companies in the region to broaden their global reach and we hope this experience will be valuable as Xero's strong leadership team looks to expand in the United States."

Then look at the new appointments announced.

"Fujioka brings to Xero significant experience in sales, digital marketing and operational management of high growth technology businesses," the firm said.
The company has also appointed Graham Smith to its board as an independent, non-executive director.
"Smith brings significant experience scaling SaaS businesses and creating industry leaders from his time as Salesforce's chief financial officer and as a Board member of industry leaders such as Splunk," Xero said.

[skid]

Your average was $22,80 but you sold down the bit purchased at $16.35 (so the average on the rest will now be higher than $22,80) but you want to get the average down below $20. Won't that require you to be purchasing at low double figures, like around $12? How do you plan to do that when the SP is going up??

(not a dig, genuinely curious. Suspect I dont understand what you actually mean by averaging down in this instance)

The way I read it was he bought @16.35 which averaged him down to approx $22---must have been a big purchase @16

(I would assume he is waiting for a fall to top up and bring the average down)

[couta1]

The way I read it was he bought @16.35 which averaged him down to approx $22---must have been a big purchase @16

(I would assume he is waiting for a fall to top up and bring the average down)
Exactly Skid your onto it and as they say never look a gift horse in the mouth:cool:

[skid]

I see nothing but positives in this announcement. The thing I love about Xero and the way they listed on the NZX so early, is that it gave retail investors an opportunity to get in before, or invest alongside, some of the most savvy tech investors in the world. You don't usually get a chance to to that. Imagine having been able to invest in Orion or Vend at the same stage as the VCs, or Facebook, Twitter etc. That is the opportunity early investors had with xero, and IMHO an opportunity which still exists, but remember VC investing is for the long term - 5+ years. I intend to hold XRO for longer so don't care about daily price fluctuations.

Take a look at the companies Accel have backed and read this comment from them "We've worked with several other leading companies in the region to broaden their global reach and we hope this experience will be valuable as Xero's strong leadership team looks to expand in the United States."

Then look at the new appointments announced.

"Fujioka brings to Xero significant experience in sales, digital marketing and operational management of high growth technology businesses," the firm said.
The company has also appointed Graham Smith to its board as an independent, non-executive director.
"Smith brings significant experience scaling SaaS businesses and creating industry leaders from his time as Salesforce's chief financial officer and as a Board member of industry leaders such as Splunk," Xero said.

Generally having good distributors and partners is good,but I guess it all comes down to what kind of a deal they have done---(they were getting pretty low on cash)-----market likes it

[Beagle]

If you assume that the increase in price is because someone found out about this, rather than a seller finishing up, they the information was out and the continuous disclosure obligations weren't met.

The FMA should be looking into this to see if there was any main buyer and if they could have in anyway known this was in the works.


I absolutely agree with you, it is very dodgy

I agree this is very dodgy.


I'm just excited,so much for the advice of not averaging down during a down trend I took a big punt on this by putting a lot of money in to drop my average buy in down to $22 and its paid off:t_up:

Very happy for you and other shareholders and I think you have just got your get out of jail card mate so don't squander it. This is a very good time to consider rebalancing your portfolio to ensure your allocation to this stock is a prudent and reasonable one, (considering they have never made a profit and are unlikely too in the foreseeable future).

[Schrodinger]

They did a few years ago when the price was in the single figures, took full advantage of the situation to increase my stake to over 20,000
Didn't HNZ do something similar a few months ago?
and CRP was doing it all the time

Considering companies like Palantir and Uber have raised between US$1b-$5b privately this indicates Xero are getting real serious and are viewed as a long term business for the USA.

[twotic]

Exactly Skid your onto it and as they say never look a gift horse in the mouth:cool:Couta, are you sure short term trading is your thing? It is most certainly not mine (so take this with a grain of salt), but I fear by selling already today in the hope that you will be able to buy back in lower, you have sold too early. As per my post earlier today, history with the XRO SP dictates this thing likely has more legs! at the very least from about now when OZ and Asia start to pile in on the news, and most likely tomorrow as well.... :(

[couta1]

Couta, are you sure short term trading is your thing? It is most certainly not mine (so take this with a grain of salt), but I fear by selling already today in the hope that you will be able to buy back in lower, you have sold too early. As per my post earlier today, history with the XRO SP dictates this thing likely has more legs! at the very least from about now when OZ and Asia start to pile in on the news, and most likely tomorrow as well.... :(
I need to protect capital at all costs now with the last year ive had, if it doesnt drop and goes up then my remaining portion will see me right, i dont look at it as short term trading but more as thinking outside of the square and preservation, cheers for your thoughts.

[twotic]

I need to protect capital at all costs now with the last year ive had, if it doesnt drop and goes up then my remaining portion will see me right, i dont look at it as short term trading but more as thinking outside of the square and preservation, cheers for your thoughts.

I do genuinely wish you all the best mate, and I appreciate that you are open about your positions and that you are trying to protect your capital etc, however it doesn't seem like I am the only one who is confused/worried about your decision making. As new guy said, this is not a dig, just a bit of genuine concern.

One of your earlier posts today regarding your strategy of averaging down further ("to below $20" from "$22.8") by selling today at around $22, only makes sense if you believe you are going to be able to buy back in again at an even cheaper price - hence why I inferred you were trying to trade this thing short term on the news. I guess it is too late now, but I would urge you to take a look at two things:
1) intra day trading patterns with XRO on positive news/sentiment
2) what happened back in Oct 2013 after XRO raised $180m (I understand you weren't invested in XRO back then so it might pay to have a real close look at what went down then).

Best of luck to you. Oh and I should add, congrats on your decision to average down at $16!

[Daytr]

Personally I think they need to get rid of Rod Drury. He has over promised & under delivered & needs to stop spending money he doesn't have.
Consolidate for a bit & grow earnings without growing costs.

[robbo24]

What's the MCap going to be once the new shares come online? :D

[Baa_Baa]

@snapiti that's my thoughts exactly. I expect that the capital raise is not a capital raise per se, it is solely about allowing Accel to take a stake, to leverage their expertise, in preparation to list in the USA, that no other investors were invited to participate, and that there will be a huge cash dump into building the product in readiness for the listing, whenever that will be who knows. http://www.accel.com/#

[twotic]

Looks like the intraday peak has been gone
Looks that way! $23.20 a rise of $4.95 (or 27%). Not a bad day at the office for those that managed to trade it.
There was a bit of extra pressure from 11:00am but not enough to hold it about $23. It will be interesting to see what she does in the next few days!

[twotic]

Looks like the intraday peak has been gone

I notice you have deleted your "SELL SELL SELL" comment ;) Change of heart?

Looks like a bit of off-sore buying has given the intra day a second wind.

[Beagle]

Have a think guys, can anyone say with any degree of credibility when this company will actually make money ?

[Bilbo]

Have a think guys, can anyone say with any degree of credibility when this company will actually make money ?

No, but when they do reach that point it could be worth a whole lot more than it is today :)

[RGR367]

Maybe I should not complain since I already made heaps on it but I'm beginning to dislike this company. New US President, effectively immediately without a kind word to the current one (Jamie Sutherland)? This company is brutal and we should trade or own it correspondingly. GL to us all!!!

[JimHickey]

I bought XRO on Monday*. :t_up:
Those who dismiss technical analysis really need to reassess their opinion. XRO has been a classic textbook example for those using TA to time entries and exits. There was no need to ever average down, you could have just sold at $34 and bought almost twice as many shares back at $20 on Monday. Those with the patience to sit, watch, and wait reap the rewards.

* my purchase of XRO in no way reflects my opinion on the quality of the company or its prospects, it is and always will be, simply a trading position for as long as the trend holds :pSo you're saying that TA predicts FA events? Interesting. Guess it is true if insider trading is happening (not suggesting it is)

[Baa_Baa]

So you're saying that TA predicts FA events? Interesting. Guess it is true if insider trading is happening (not suggesting it is)

TA predicts nothing. It indicates conditions, where if the conditions are met, a buy, sell or hold decision can be made. Today XRO gapped up at the open right through the 200day EMA, that condition alone would have been one that many would decide to buy.

BAA

[Beagle]

I bought XRO on Monday*. :t_up:
Those who dismiss technical analysis really need to reassess their opinion. XRO has been a classic textbook example for those using TA to time entries and exits. There was no need to ever average down, you could have just sold at $34 and bought almost twice as many shares back at $20 on Monday. Those with the patience to sit, watch, and wait reap the rewards.

* my purchase of XRO in no way reflects my opinion on the quality of the company or its prospects, it is and always will be, simply a trading position for as long as the trend holds :p

I dunno about others but I think it would have been more helpful if you'd advised us that it had hit a trigger point for you on Monday, not after the event...
dont you mean if..... Rodger.
In the mean time this latest capital raise should ring alarm bells about just how difficult breaking into the US market is being

Exactly. Yep I did mean to say "If / When" they ever make a profit ????.

[twotic]

TA predicts nothing. It indicates conditions, where if the conditions are met, a buy, sell or hold decision can be made. Today XRO gapped up at the open right through the 200day EMA, that condition alone would have been one that many would decide to buy.

BAA

Baa_Baa, I think you will find Jim is simply taking the piss!

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/09b51390/share-trading-before-xero-capital-raise.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Share+trading+before+Xero+capital+rai se&utm_content=Share+trading+before+Xero+capital+rais e+CID_be9bdbd1726b5a02331e62f84979cf4f&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle09b51390share-trading-before-xero-capital-raisehtml

This will add fuel to the debate. Who traded on inside information ?

[bull....]

actually triggered a buy beginning of feb, ( probably when hard core negoiations started ) lol just kidding

if you look at the graph of au xro it has been climbing on rising volume all feb ahaha

[mikeybycrikey]

Good news for Xero about this capital raise.

I had been considering buying in more over the past few weeks but haven't done anything about it. Regretting that a little now.

I wasn't quite sure what to do about the price jump a few days ago. I assumed that it was caused by a bit of hot air coming out of Xerocon.

However, a couple of things haven't quite smelled right in the past few days.

Firstly the quote from a broker that was widely reported about a heavy seller leaving the market. A seller might be able to keep the price "artificially" low at $16, but not for three months. That didn't smell right.

Also when the Aussie market opened yesterday, it opened a full $1 higher than the kiwi market was trading at. XRO.NZ had come off the highs but not XRO.AX. Someone in Australia knew something.

[bull....]

guess if it jumped in nz too it would really look sus

[Xerof]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/09b51390/share-trading-before-xero-capital-raise.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Share+trading+before+Xero+capital+rai se&utm_content=Share+trading+before+Xero+capital+rais e+CID_be9bdbd1726b5a02331e62f84979cf4f&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle09b51390share-trading-before-xero-capital-raisehtml

This will add fuel to the debate. Who traded on inside information ?

KW, expect a knock on the door at any moment :D

[Beagle]

Good news for Xero about this capital raise.

I had been considering buying in more over the past few weeks but haven't done anything about it. Regretting that a little now.

I wasn't quite sure what to do about the price jump a few days ago. I assumed that it was caused by a bit of hot air coming out of Xerocon.

However, a couple of things haven't quite smelled right in the past few days.

Firstly the quote from a broker that was widely reported about a heavy seller leaving the market. A seller might be able to keep the price "artificially" low at $16, but not for three months. That didn't smell right.

Also when the Aussie market opened yesterday, it opened a full $1 higher than the kiwi market was trading at. XRO.NZ had come off the highs but not XRO.AX. Someone in Australia knew something.

Aussies...hmmm... underarm bowling anyone ???? They'd better not try any underarm bowling on Saturday at the circket or there will be a riot !! Sorry I digress...

[RGR367]

A reply from Rod re my comment on their blog:

Jamie was our initial US President that did the incredibly hard job of getting is got us off the ground. I’m delighted Jamie continues with us as a General Manager and valued member of the team focussed on US Product and working with our US Accountants channel.
This is a similar track as in Australia and the UK as each market scales quickly we are continually bringing on and developing leadership appropriate for each phase of growth.
But we are very clear about performance as you have to be in a fast growing company. That’s what our shareholders would expect from us.
Hope that sets your mind at ease.

[Copper]

I have to admit I haven't seen such a group of negative posts for a long time.Insider trading,suspicious trades,share enquiries ,Company performance doubts ,Directors dumped,whatever ,,,,,and the price is still up over four bucks on the day.I suppose the same posts will come if the price gets to thirty bucks and profit is in sight.....Get a life,enjoy the ride if in fact you are a holder....cheers.

[blackcap]

Also when the Aussie market opened yesterday, it opened a full $1 higher than the kiwi market was trading at. XRO.NZ had come off the highs but not XRO.AX. Someone in Australia knew something.

Someone in NZ using their Australian broker, or NZ broker to buy on the ASX may also have known something. Its not always as black and white. (for that matter, someone in Timbuktoo using ANZ securities could have done the buying as well :)

[Harvey Specter]

As others have noted, the recent announcement could easily be construed as quite bad news (I certainly think it is), so I don't expect this to be the start of any long term trend.Why? If you buy the story being told, a strategic investor came to them and offered money at 25% above the 5day average price. Taking the funds completely negates any thought they they need to raise capital in the short term and as a new external shareholder with experience in the area, is great validation of the company.

Add to that more experienced exec's (which they will cull quickly if they dont add value) must also be seen as a postive.

I see it as positive though the main question still remains - can they break the US market?


I have to admit I haven't seen such a group of negative posts for a long time.Where have you been? thats what this forum is famous for. PEB thread even got removed due to negative behaviour. Re claims of insider trading, this is nothing against XRO themselves (it would be pretty obvious if Rod or others were buying). More likely someone in the industry (eg. the Pilot of Accel private jet ;) )knew what was going down and bought in knowing it would pop.

[bull....]

not often you see an undisclosed buy order in for xro............ at market price as well

probably a lot of instututions caught short by the news

[gv1]

Great Company. Would love to see it become apple of NZ.

[Harvey Specter]

why is it bad news? See snapiti's post from earlier today. Sums it up pretty well actually.Well if you buy the story being told*, that answers Snapiti's concerns completely. That is Accel came to them and only one other institution had a preemptive right so wasn't offered to others. Accel is clearly a smart player so wouldn't pay above market value unless it saw good things coming.

* Big assumption based on Snapiti's comments re Rod and Eskimos.

[Copper]

why is it bad news? See snapiti's post from earlier today. Sums it up pretty well actually.
I read Snapiti post from earlier in day and one could take that view or take almost exactly the opposite.Its down to personal interpretation of the announcement.I personally think it is a positive and there seem to be a few others in this world that think the same by the turnover and support...IMHO

[Copper]

I am no sure about the speculation that Accel came to them but more than one insto had preemptive rights, so obviously not all with those rights were interested at the price the shares where offered.
Fair comment but if you have been in the business you will know that the Instos and hedge funds and venture capital funds are always on the lookout for investments.They may very we'll have approached Rob at $15 and like in a takeover offer settled at $20.....all boxes ticked ,on with the day to day....

[Copper]

Where have you been? thats what this forum is famous for. PEB thread even got removed due to negative behaviour. Re claims of insider trading, this is nothing against XRO themselves (it would be pretty obvious if Rod or others were buying). More likely someone in the industry (eg. the Pilot of Accel private jet ;) )knew what was going down and bought in knowing it would pop.
Hi there Harvey......Have been away for months ,think PEB and Snakk got to an old fella like me.Went and had a look at Hot Copper and had a giggle to say the least.Like here they all have opinions ,some good and some downright unbelievable.Saw the negativity on this site over the last few days and so had a go.After my first post today the next lot of posts were all positive.Probably over did it but sometimes you have to let fly.Kind regards.....

[Copper]

I guess what I was aiming at is whilst parts on the announcement is positive (securing investors at a 25-30% premium to the last 3 month ave sp value)
There are some aspects of the announcement that could easily be seen as negative.
Therefore I don't think that justifies the market paying another 15-20% premium that is was today.
alls good very happy for holders and this stock has shown it can do what the cow did in the nursery rhyme(jump over the moon).
That's cool Snapiti.....it is just a personal interpretation of the announcement and how it's perceived...How the new investor came in will not be disclosed.It may be along the lines of Harvey and happened when a lovely Girl from Xero Timbucktoo met up with a nice guy from Xero Havana and agreed that Rod may need some cash in the future ......They put their thoughts contacts together and we have what we have today...Millions in the bank......Yeah right !!!!!!
Kind regards......Copper
ps....Bring the washing in there is a southerly and cold temperatures due in a few hours....

[Snow Leopard]

Over the weekend of 14-15 February I decided that I would buy into XRO on Monday (16-Feb), my technical indicators looked good.

Monday?
It is a long story but I own no XRO.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Copper]

Over the weekend of 14-15 February I decided that I would buy into XRO on Monday (16-Feb), my technical indicators looked good.

Monday?
It is a long story but I own no XRO.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Luv your posts Tiger.....I know,you went out to lunch with friends and enjoyed yourself so much You needed a siesta and later when you rang your broker,you had missed the market......What happened on the Tuesday?????

[blocker3]

This is a very interesting read attached.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/09b51390/share-trading-before-xero-capital-raise.html

[Daytr]

Unusual for a broker to cry foul, but he's right.
That's not a leaky boat, that's Titanic proportions !
But the regulator I'm sure will do nothing.

[Copper]

Unusual for a broker to cry foul, but he's right.
That's not a leaky boat, that's Titanic proportions !
But the regulator I'm sure will do nothing.
I wouldn't want to be in the brokers shoes.......

[twotic]

Unusual for a broker to cry foul, but he's right.
That's not a leaky boat, that's Titanic proportions !
But the regulator I'm sure will do nothing.

I understand why people think there may be something dodgy going on, and possibly they are right. But, for those that may have not been around long enough to see it, the XRO SP has on countless occasions jumped up and down by similar margins without anything obvious driving the move - so it could simply be another typical XRO price movement. Then there is the timing of Xerocon which always adds a good amount of buying pressure, a bit of extra positive sentiment articulated through the media, and I think you have as good an explanation as any (IMO the best explanation).

That being said, the FMA should do a bit of digging - start with the share register and then go from there. Market participants deserve to be reassured. Don't hold your breath though......

[RGR367]

Unusual for a broker to cry foul, but he's right.
That's not a leaky boat, that's Titanic proportions !
But the regulator I'm sure will do nothing.

But be really hard to swallow when you're a BROKER and you've never been told eh :scared:

[trackers]

This is a very interesting read attached.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/09b51390/share-trading-before-xero-capital-raise.html

Completely dodgy.. XRO has languished for months, there's no way that massive jump a couple days before a huge cap raising at a significant premium was a coincidence

[twotic]

Completely dodgy.. XRO has languished for months, there's no way that massive jump a couple days before a huge cap raising at a significant premium was a coincidence
That's not exactly true - take a look at the 6 month chart, there are several occasions where the SP has fluctuated significantly on no new news. My point really is that if you look at this recent trading pattern in isolation it doesn't look great (I agree), however, those of us that have been around long enough will know that such price movements are not that uncommon with XRO and can therefore be easily attributed to reasons other than dodgy behaviour.....

[twotic]

you are joking right.........trackers sums it up very well.

Takes two seconds to bring up a chart mate and figure it out for yourself.

Re-read my earlier posts as well by the way, I'm not dismissing the idea that something dodgy may have occurred, simply providing a bit of balance based on a longer term view. As you well know, many on this forum can have quite short horizons and XRO has been trading for close to 10 years now - there is much history that I believe most are not familiar with.

[kanaka]

That's not exactly true - take a look at the 6 month chart, there are several occasions where the SP has fluctuated significantly on no new news. My point really is that if you look at this recent trading pattern in isolation it doesn't look great (I agree), however, those of us that have been around long enough will know that such price movements are not that uncommon with XRO and can therefore be easily attributed to reasons other than dodgy behaviour.....

Totally agree been following XRO since day 1 and have got used to their wildly fluctuating share price.
Been to a couple of their investor presentations and have been impressed with Rod Drury- his honesty and openness in what he says. If as Rod says on their new share raising: "We're pretty confident it's not (related). We kept it super tight and we keep a good close eye on the register, so we're very careful about that," I for one believe in the man

[kanaka]

Current rumours of an IPO by MYOB will give Rod Drury his long awaited chance to compare Apples vs Apples
Should be another boost to XRO price?

[Copper]

Takes two seconds to bring up a chart mate and figure it out for yourself.

Re-read my earlier posts as well by the way, I'm not dismissing the idea that something dodgy may have occurred, simply providing a bit of balance based on a longer term view. As you well know, many on this forum can have quite short horizons and XRO has been trading for close to 10 years now - there is much history that I believe most are not familiar with.
Agree Twotic.....Snapiti has an opinion,we have another.Both entitled to it.I have held Xero since the beginning and know too well the movements in share price.A matter that hasn't sunk in here is that the same broker said one day that a large seller has gone from the market..The price went up...The same broker on the price going up said everything was smelly......ask yourself.The capital raising would have been going on for weeks outside that time frame.IMHO..

[trackers]

People who think something dodgy happened are those who have no idea of technical trading indicators and buy signals.

What an ignorant and arrogant statement.. Might as well have just said "anyone who doesn't agree with my opinion is an idiot"

[skid]

Agree, what a load of conceited bollocks

I guess you guys would have to know someone who knows all about the TA buy signals and still thinks its something dodgy to qualify your statements eh?

[Hoop]

I'm just excited,so much for the advice of not averaging down during a down trend I took a big punt on this by putting a lot of money in to drop my average buy in down to $22 and its paid off:t_up:

Couta..(no offense mate, just a huge criticism of your investment behaviour) ...I for one will not congratulate you...Ask your self how you got into this position in the first place..I betcha it was buying into a XRO downtrend..eh?.. .Your investment methods exposes you to high risk capital evaporation yet you are still doing it... the rule of thumb is avoid buying in downtrends..The word is avoid, not don't...Unless you are an experienced investor (most are not) and can identify bullish pattern opportunities (areas of much reduced risk) within the downtrending stock...otherwise you stay OUT and wait for the downtrend to end when the trend ends the risk significantly lowers..The avoid buying in downtrends rule is a wisdom rule as it keeps you from jumping into a stock averaging down as the trend worsens and suddenly losing big time...as damaging capitulation often occurs during a lengthy downtrend..

As for XRO the downtrend ended after Xmas before New Year at $16..so your punt which paid off wasn't a punt buying (averaging down) into a downtrend you accidentially bought in an uptrend (did you know that??).. Yes you make money averaging up in uptrends
Some TA indicators confirmed the downtrend ending as well..considering $16 was close to the absolute bottom around $15.. why PUNT and hope!!! just wait for the downtrend to end........

Its so simple Couta let the Trend be your friend..why fight the trend and lose heaps..average up not down

[RGR367]

For those who said not to buy on the downtrend, just like to say I'm now selling those I bought from $15.65 - $16.25 and waiting to get them hit at $23.50 which will be soon, I guess :t_up:


disc: new nothing about charting and cannot read candle sticks and not buying into any fundamentals for XRO at this point. I believe on the goal of the company though.

[Hoop]

Now while I'm in this mood..I'll respond to Trackers and New Guy.
TA is a snapshot of market behaviour....,

Think!!!!!...why did the market take off....its easy to interpret..XRO is a quality stock..most bigger investors are disciplinced peole not conceited ,stupid or irrational...They also think and they wait for XRO to turn around....TA analyses this data and presents it on an easy to see visual format.... TA visual showed buyers re-entering XRO weeks ago.....That why TA people were "in" before the news. Thats why KW and other TAers make the money!!

[Hoop]

Additionally, if it was insider trading why werent buyers all over it on the 24th when the share price FELL 7% - that should have been a perfect buying opportunity if you knew about the news, yet hardly anything traded that day.

That 7% drop was an opportunity for me...there were all the signs of a second chance buy-in if you missed out on the sudden breakout
1...notice the drop to a major support area (rule; buy on support areas..avoid buying close to resistance areas)
2...Retest....There is a very strong chance a stock will retest its breakout area...so waiting to buy can be a good option..
3...Buy in with tight stops...minmises to small loss if the price drop (break support) goes against the odds

[trackers]

Now while I'm in this mood..I'll respond to Trackers and New Guy.
TA is a snapshot of market behaviour....,

Think!!!!!...why did the market take off....its easy to interpret..XRO is a quality stock..most bigger investors are disciplinced peole not conceited ,stupid or irrational...They also think and they wait for XRO to turn around....TA analyses this data and presents it on an easy to see visual format.... TA visual showed buyers re-entering XRO weeks ago.....That why TA people were "in" before the news. Thats why KW and other TAers make the money!!

Its pretty easy to point to a share that's gone up, in retrospect, and say "there, that's where you should have been buying" and conjure up a TA signal that fits. I'm seeing nothing in the chart below that accurately explains a share price rise from $15.95 on the 18th to $19.75 on the 20th - 25% on a $3 billion stock. Rising volume? No. Clear TA breaks? No - because similar signals triggered many times before with no response - You can't use retrospect to just pick and choose. Hoop, I agree with you when you say that if you used strict TA you would've been in in December and if you did that, excellent work

Overall, clearly I am an idiot, and the NZX too. Obviously they are not into TA. They mustn't be familiar with the rampant success of the MACD. Same as Forsyth Barr I suppose

http://iforce.co.nz/i/x1pxcjbj.2bd.jpg

[Ginger_steps_]

I'm just excited,so much for the advice of not averaging down during a down trend I took a big punt on this by putting a lot of money in to drop my average buy in down to $22 and its paid off:t_up: congrats couta! The tides are turning for ya. As of yesterday my portfolio is in the green again - its been a shaky year for me as well- after selling 30% of my portfolio for a house deposit - but held onto the stocks in the red. Was interesting to see you sell out of SUM in a strong uptrend - however you cant knock someone for locking in a gain i guess!
Good to hear your brushing up on your TA as well - ive slowly started learning myself (thanks KW for your motivating posts on TA)- let 2015 be our year!

[BIRMANBOY]

Moving ON... yes by now everyone will have gotten the message that all investors who use TA are supremely more able to handle the investment world and that every other method is worthy only of criticism and "I told you so". We get it. Allow all investors to decide their own pathway and regardless of method enjoy their wins is surely a mature way of approaching investment. Its not a competition against other investors..or is it?

[Xerof]

It's called non-holder envy :p

I'm a non-holder, but not envious of those who followed the TA entry - good on you. I also reckon there was prior knowledge of the placement, more importantly, of the premium being paid. So you FA'ers are probably quite correct too, and there's nothing FMA can or will do - non-disclosure of an uncompleted arrangement is not an offence, so get over it - **** happens and we retailers usually get shat on.

[trackers]

Look at the yearly chart - I don't think I've seen a better TA entry signal. Trackers, try running your charts over the ASX data, see if you come up with anything different?



No, I agree - Actually to be fair, looking from the year view as suggested, a 100 M.A cross would have been an excellent entry. Something like the MSI would have been terrible (although time will tell). I guess my overall point is there is multiple explanations, and any of them could be valid

http://iforce.co.nz/i/wkpekjus.dok.jpg

[Copper]

That 100 MA was crossed on the 18th - that is probably what triggered the rush into the stock on the 19th. Which then triggered the 120 day MA and another flurry of buying. So one small TA indicator that triggers a buy has a cascading effect. Which is why you cant automatically assume insider trading. It could just be as simple as the fact that the share price finally caught up and crossed all of its moving averages.
Whilst all the technical stuff is being analysed and discussed here with all the intrigue it brings with it keep an eye on the stock.The Titanic leak has been overcome and the Titanic is now in dry dock....GLTA.....

[bull....]

25 target in sight rock on

[Hoop]

Its pretty easy to point to a share that's gone up, in retrospect, and say "there, that's where you should have been buying" and conjure up a TA signal that fits. I'm seeing nothing in the chart below that accurately explains a share price rise from $15.95 on the 18th to $19.75 on the 20th - 25% on a $3 billion stock. Rising volume? No. Clear TA breaks? No - because similar signals triggered many times before with no response - You can't use retrospect to just pick and choose. Hoop, I agree with you when you say that if you used strict TA you would've been in in December and if you did that, excellent work

Overall, clearly I am an idiot, and the NZX too. Obviously they are not into TA. They mustn't be familiar with the rampant success of the MACD. Same as Forsyth Barr I suppose

You can't use retrospect to just pick and choose....Hmmm sometimes you can...even to a trained eye a experienced chartist may miss something on a chart to begin
with and with hindsight it's much easier to pick that or other hints
....This retropective TA argument got up my nose a couple of years ago...so I proved my point by promising to post my TA charted trades (in and out) on
3 threads PEB AIR and SUM for a year...
That year period expired last October...

With respect to BB and others (including the TA haters) that's it TA-wise from me I'll move on and will post further stuff (probably XRO) on KW's thread as I see both
Trackers and KW have missed several signal hints

[bull....]

as i say buy was given end of jan early feb in aus, more traders there voulumes were on up all feb, nz follow aus chart so who know if anyone know before cause chart was already going up big jump in volume last week just late people come to party previous people start selling to them

[bull....]

if you look at a simple moving average cross on the hourly asx it gave a buy on the 2 feb at just under 15 and hasnt given a sell even yet

[kanaka]

$25.00 reached next stop $45.00 on blue sky and hot air?

[gv1]

$25.00 reached next stop $45.00 on blue sky and hot air?
$45 or somebody said $60

[Beagle]

Call it $100, surely it doesn't really matter if they never ever make a profit :D

[bull....]

ya 25 reached and still going strong trend ya friend

[RGR367]

ya 25 reached and still going strong trend ya friend

Yeah "hot air(sic)" was all it needed :t_up:

[kanaka]

Call it $100, surely it doesn't really matter if they never ever make a profit :D

I'm waiting for their results in May then we'll see if $100 is achievable

[Toasty]

$45 or somebody said $60

I think $60 was touted when Milford bought in back last year. But I am comfortable with $100.

[Snow Leopard]

Looks like 14-Oct-13 and onwards all over again.

Consider whether a degree of caution is right for you.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Title from Pink Floyd: The Wall

[Copper]

Looks like 14-Oct-13 and onwards all over again.

Consider whether a degree of caution is right for you.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Title from Pink Floyd: The Wall
To all the technical buffs,where are we heading or will you tell us after we've been there????

[Daytr]

With all the euphoria it tells me this move is now overcooked.
Don't get me wrong its got the potential to perhaps one day be a very successful company but so far they have over promised & under delivered & just keep on spending.
Shareholders just got diluted, admittedly at a very good price at the time, but its still a dilution.
They just keep burning cash & until I see that stop & Drury reigns in his ego this will either bigger than Fonterra or bust & to be hones it could be either.
Tech based companies have a habit of being superseded.

I couldn't believe it when there entire sales for the year was only $120M! That's sales not including cost of sales!
Tell me that figure is wrong ! ?

They are now valued at $3Bln!

They want growth alright, they need absolute stellar growth to value anything like their current valuation.

[bull....]

To all the technical buffs,where are we heading or will you tell us after we've been there????

you were told or wernt you listening lol

[Toasty]

With all the euphoria it tells me this move is now overcooked.
Don't get me wrong its got the potential to perhaps one day be a very successful company but so far they have over promised & under delivered & just keep on spending.
Shareholders just got diluted, admittedly at a very good price at the time, but its still a dilution.
They just keep burning cash & until I see that stop & Drury reigns in his ego this will either bigger than Fonterra or bust & to be hones it could be either.
Tech based companies have a habit of being superseded.

I couldn't believe it when there entire sales for the year was only $120M! That's sales not including cost of sales!
Tell me that figure is wrong ! ?

They are now valued at $3Bln!

They want growth alright, they need absolute stellar growth to value anything like their current valuation.

You could argue that the share price is really our fault and nothing really to do with Rod. His job is to sell the company to customers and investors alike so as far as I am concerned he is just doing his job...and well. As for his ego, I don't know if you have met him or just read the articles and the commenters on those articles. He genuinely loves doing what he is doing and determined to make this company a major player on the world stage. Its not a short term thing for him and he appreciates that he is responsible for a large amount of employees and investors in this company.

[Daytr]

I'm sure he's a very nice bloke however I have seen this over & over, growth at all costs.
I have dealt with some of the best sales people in the business & yes its his job to promote the company but its also to give realistic guidance & not over spend. Look its potentially a great company I have no issue with that, however its currently priced at having sales of 10 times what they are.
So yes that's the market if you like, but you have to admit he has over promised on several occasions, under delivered & costs keep on growing.

[Shore]

They just keep burning cash & until I see that stop & Drury reigns in his ego this will either bigger than Fonterra or bust & to be hones it could be either.
Tech based companies have a habit of being superseded.

I couldn't believe it when there entire sales for the year was only $120M! That's sales not including cost of sales!
Tell me that figure is wrong ! ?

They are now valued at $3Bln!

There's little use in blaming Rod. The valuation is based on the stock price, and the stock price is based on whoever is willing to buy. There's traders on this very board that freely admit Xero could be selling toothpaste for all they care - they are in it for the ride and will buy in at whatever the price, no matter the rationale, if the trading signals are there. If there wasn't such a mathematical, chart-driven science to investing, I don't think we'd be seeing such wild and dramatic swings in the stock price of this company. But there you go.

[RGR367]

You could argue that the share price is really our fault and nothing really to do with Rod. His job is to sell the company to customers and investors alike so as far as I am concerned he is just doing his job...and well. As for his ego, I don't know if you have met him or just read the articles and the commenters on those articles. He genuinely loves doing what he is doing and determined to make this company a major player on the world stage. Its not a short term thing for him and he appreciates that he is responsible for a large amount of employees and investors in this company.

I for one will not fault Rod. I worked with him for a short time.

[Daytr]

I'm not blaming him for the valuation of the company, however he has over promised & under delivered & increased costs.
Sure its the market that places a value on that even if it is around 25 times sales revenue and let alone they aren't making a profit & wont be making anything substantial for years imo. You are right that's not the CEO's fault that the market has over valued his company, however he is also doing nothing to reign in expectations which imo are quite irrational & over exuberant. I've seen it so often in the mining industry in Australia. The best sales person in the world & people worship the ground they walk on. Well for me its about the numbers & even if they had 100% sales growth in the next year it miles over valued & I assure you they wont have anything like that kind of growth.

[Shore]

however he is also doing nothing to reign in expectations

What expectations are you specifically referring to? In terms of official market guidance, we are expecting 80% growth, that is the expectation. If they weren't on track to meet that then I'd expect some revised guidance, but as history shows, they've always met their forecasts.

[Daytr]

Actually that's quite incorrect.
They missed their US growth expectations by a country mile.
If you think they can increase sales by 80%, good luck to you.
$120M of sales, cost of sales higher than that and a valuation of $3Bln.
Good luck with that as well.
I'm not anti the company & I hope they do very well in the long run, its just they are very over valued & perhaps extremely over valued right now.



What expectations are you specifically referring to? In terms of official market guidance, we are expecting 80% growth, that is the expectation. If they weren't on track to meet that then I'd expect some revised guidance, but as history shows, they've always met their forecasts.

[Copper]

you were told or wernt you listening lol
Sorry Bull....perhaps I should rephrase that question.We have turned up for all the technical reasons.Has any technical person reached a conclusion on technicals where we may reach on this burst before consolidating or collapsing or will it take a day or two to settle....

[Daytr]

That's not technical, its just elemental physics! ;-)

What's the technical term for a bloated pig. ;-)


Sorry Bull....perhaps I should rephrase that question.We have turned up for all the technical reasons.Has any technical person reached a conclusion on technicals where we may reach on this burst before consolidating or collapsing or will it take a day or two to settle....

[Daytr]

One thing the company could do is a share split.
Its incredibly illiquid for a company its size.
Too illiquid & creates risk for investors.

[Harvey Specter]

One thing the company could do is a share split.
Its incredibly illiquid for a company its size.
Too illiquid & creates risk for investors.Not sure how much difference that makes to liquidity (the same % are still locked up) and the US market is use to see higher dollar values on their shares so my guess is that is a play for the NASDAQ. Expect more liquidity to company after they list there and the US investors (who invested early) start to divest.

[dingoNZ]

Not sure how much difference that makes to liquidity (the same % are still locked up) and the US market is use to see higher dollar values on their shares so my guess is that is a play for the NASDAQ. Expect more liquidity to company after they list there and the US investors (who invested early) start to divest.


One would argue that a share split would not create value, however in practice this isn't always the case. When AAPL did its 7:1 split, the VERY first day of trading the shares rose over 8%, nothing material changed, it just gave more investors a change to jump on. I haven't looked a lot into it, but I assume its a psychological factor.

[Daytr]

It would improve liquidity over tome as shares get traded.
I would suggest a 4:1 split maybe 5.
Generally I have seen shares rise quite strongly after a share split.
I think it appeals more to the US market having a bigger share price as that's quite typical.
Mind you the way they are going will increase with every dilution they make.

[kanaka]

It would improve liquidity over tome as shares get traded.
I would suggest a 4:1 split maybe 5.
Generally I have seen shares rise quite strongly after a share split.
I think it appeals more to the US market having a bigger share price as that's quite typical.
Mind you the way they are going will increase with every dilution they make.

I think it is a sign of a mature market living with high share prices. I remember on the ASX 20+ years ago companies were forever having share splits to keep the price below $10. Now all the big Australian Companies are in double figures, just look at the banks and big mining companies.
It really makes on difference to the fundamentals and any sensible person would be aware of this

[Copper]

I think it is a sign of a mature market living with high share prices. I remember on the ASX 20+ years ago companies were forever having share splits to keep the price below $10. Now all the big Australian Companies are in double figures, just look at the banks and big mining companies.
It really makes on difference to the fundamentals and any sensible person would be aware of this
Good comment....In the old days you had a share split hoping the ex price was the same as the cum price.The days of cowboys and greed .Remember Judgecorp...it was twelve bucks before it was listed...after splits and bonuses and goodness knows what.The higher prices now give some respectability to the share.Overseas institutions have various restrictions as to what price a share must be before investing.I doubt if Xero would even contemplate it knowing the U.S. investors choice"...

[twotic]

he has over promised & under delivered

What exactly are you referring to above? Some references would be useful because IMO as a long term shareholder XRO have delivered and then some. I'm confused by what exactly you believe they have promised and then subsequently failed to deliver. Cheers.

[Carpenterjoe]

I suppose next announcement will be Xero surpassing 500k clients. Might be any day now.

[Daytr]

I love the self promotion! "Any sensible person" LOL. Nice one.
Are you suggesting that XRO is a mature company?
The companies you refer have been around for a long time & typically will have circa a billion shares on issue & have good liquidity.
XRO does not.
It some times has a bid / offer spread of 50c!

Copper, what gives respectability is a health bottom line. Something XRO are yet to achieve.

I would have thought anyone with any sense would have observed that & realized that is a negative for the SP.
Its funny I'm the one who is short & I'm actually suggesting something that would be a positive for the company but you obviously disagree.
Each to there own of course, I was just floating what is a perfectly reasonable & probably quite positive suggestion.


I think it is a sign of a mature market living with high share prices. I remember on the ASX 20+ years ago companies were forever having share splits to keep the price below $10. Now all the big Australian Companies are in double figures, just look at the banks and big mining companies.
It really makes on difference to the fundamentals and any sensible person would be aware of this

[Daytr]

US sales, by now they were sup[posed to be much higher.


What exactly are you referring to above? Some references would be useful because IMO as a long term shareholder XRO have delivered and then some. I'm confused by what exactly you believe they have promised and then subsequently failed to deliver. Cheers.

[Copper]

I love the self promotion! "Any sensible person" LOL. Nice one.
Are you suggesting that XRO is a mature company?
The companies you refer have been around for a long time & typically will have circa a billion shares on issue & have good liquidity.
XRO does not.
It some times has a bid / offer spread of 50c!

Copper, what gives respectability is a health bottom line. Something XRO are yet to achieve.

I would have thought anyone with any sense would have observed that & realized that is a negative for the SP.
Its funny I'm the one who is short & I'm actually suggesting something that would be a positive for the company but you obviously disagree.
Each to there own of course, I was just floating what is a perfectly reasonable & probably quite positive suggestion.
Have no problems .In the earlier days share splits were the norm.I personally think in recent times that has been less of a taken option.Some investors have restrictions on value of shares they can invest in,notably the U.S.Again its a personal assessment nothing more.I have no problem with share splits and just go with the flow...as you infer it may be a future move for Xero after they get some runs on the board.The health factor as you mention....cheers..

[Daytr]

Well I think the only reason you would do it is to increase liquidity.
Poor liquidity puts off investors.

[ShareFodder]

Well I think the only reason you would do it is to increase liquidity.
Poor liquidity puts off investors.

Stock splits don't necessarily have a big effect on liquidity, particularly now with commissions so low.

[twotic]

US sales, by now they were sup[posed to be much higher.

Can you point me to where XRO provided an expected trajectory for US sales? Cheers.

[Daytr]

Twotic, I suggest you look back at their statements over the last 2-3 years. What do you think a circa $6Bln market cap was based off?
The fact that they even tout how many small business there are in the US as if that really means anything.
Yes we know its a big market one they are yet to crack.
$120M of sales, says it all to me. If they do indeed have 500k clients or there abouts that means they only receive around $250 per client.
Is that right?

Sharefodder, I would say that's quite incorrect from my experience & typically it will have a positive impact on the SP. Its just simple human nature at play.

Anyway enough trying to be positive! I'm short & for good reason.

[tomblu]

KW, wot mas are you using for the deathcross ?

[twotic]

Twotic, I suggest you look back at their statements over the last 2-3 years. What do you think a circa $6Bln market cap was based off?
The fact that they even tout how many small business there are in the US as if that really means anything.
Yes we know its a big market one they are yet to crack.
$120M of sales, says it all to me. If they do indeed have 500k clients or there abouts that means they only receive around $250 per client.
Is that right?

Sharefodder, I would say that's quite incorrect from my experience & typically it will have a positive impact on the SP. Its just simple human nature at play.

Anyway enough trying to be positive! I'm short & for good reason.

Sounds to me like you are not actually able to back up your statement that (Rod) "over promised & under delivered" (on US sales)?

Sounds to me like you are confusing supposed market expectations regarding sales with official projections from XRO.

If my inference above is correct then your comments about Rod/XRO over-promising & under-deliving are simply incorrect.

If you can provide official XRO projections on US sales growth which they subsequently did not meet then I will stand corrected.

EDIT: The reason I'm questioning you is I think it is a pretty big call to say Rod has over promised & under delivered - particularly regarding US sales of which I have never seen XRO (or Rod) make specific projections on (and I've followed XRO for some time). That being said, you can always cite your evidence and prove me wrong as I may well have missed something....

[kanaka]

[QUOTE=Daytr;561742]I love the self promotion! "Any sensible person" LOL. Nice one.
Are you suggesting that XRO is a mature company?
The companies you refer have been around for a long time & typically will have circa a billion shares on issue & have good liquidity.
XRO does not.
It some times has a bid / offer spread of 50c!

Was referring to mature markets not companies so the rest of your reply is not relevant except sensible person - if I had any sense I would not reply LOL

[Santiago]

I think he's mistaking market expectations with official Xero projections. My own reading, following the company pretty closely, is that RD has generally talked down the US and has been pretty clear that while a huge opportunity, it could take a number of years. He still says the main growth engines at present are Aust and the UK. He's also been straight up about when Xero will hit profitability. And, he's has also been honest about failure and changed course accordingly (Xero personal, US appointments...)

would love over to know when he got in short. Must be sweating at present...

[Lorne Ranger]

Sounds to me like you are not actually able to back up your statement that (Rod) "over promised & under delivered" (on US sales)?

Sounds to me like you are confusing supposed market expectations regarding sales with official projections from XRO.

....

I think it's fair to believe that early US growth has been slower than Xero and Rod may have expected, but I think they have always said the US was a special case with a strong incumbent and different operating and legislative environment. They have been more vocal in their warning about this than they have been bullish about what and how things will be achieved. They have talked up the potential of the US market, but I think been careful not to promise anything.

So I think it's incorrect to label them as having over-promised and under-delivered, and I think Rod has often gone to some length to avoid that, sticking to the 80% growth predictions as the bottom line, which, as far as I can see, have been met. The UK growth is fantastic alone and will clearly be ready to take over the growth baton from Australia once that starts to ease in the next couple of years based on projections.

That's not to say that 60% US growth in the next results, which for many other companies is seen as delightful news, will be taken as disappointing and drag the SP. It's a crazy scale for this company.

Oh and Daytr I think the old chestnut about Xero not yet turning a profit is just an out of date sentiment for this company. they have plainly said they are gearing for growth and aiming high. They could close offices and retrench at any time and make an instant profit based on current sales alone, but thats not the plan is it? Gear for growth and keep going, and clearly investors arn't concerned about it not yet making a profit because thats not the immediate goal. So why are you worried about this? High cost of sales its true but any engine needs a good guzzle of gas to get going and accelerate to the speed you want, then you can start taking your foot off and enjoy the ride and efficiencies.

[Daytr]

I think more recently you are correct RD has been more circumspect re the US particularly since sales have been slow. Go back two years & I think you will find that's not the case. Yep call me old fashioned I look for profits or profits in the reasonably near term to justify a valuation and that is simply not the case here. With a $3bln market cap you would want to see $150M post tax profit & with strong growth, they are a long way from that.

[Daytr]

Thanks for clarifying that your post wasn't relevant to the issue of liquidity in the stock.
And keep up the self promotion, I feel you may need it.

[QUOTE=kanaka;561775 Was referring to mature markets not companies so the rest of your reply is not relevant except sensible person - if I had any sense I would not reply LOL[/QUOTE]

[Daytr]

I think he's mistaking market expectations with official Xero projections. My own reading, following the company pretty closely, is that RD has generally talked down the US and has been pretty clear that while a huge opportunity, it could take a number of years. He still says the main growth engines at present are Aust and the UK. He's also been straight up about when Xero will hit profitability. And, he's has also been honest about failure and changed course accordingly (Xero personal, US appointments...)

would love over to know when he got in short. Must be sweating at present...

Ha ha, short yesterday. Lets see what happens today, however I'm picking the run higher is over.
Obviously could be wrong, but that's what stops are for. ;-)

[blackcap]

Ha ha, short yesterday. Lets see what happens today, however I'm picking the run higher is over.
Obviously could be wrong, but that's what stops are for. ;-)

Hi Daytr, where did you go short because I am looking to do the same thing and the provider I used last time does not allow me to short XRO anymore.

[kanaka]

Hi Daytr, where did you go short because I am looking to do the same thing and the provider I used last time does not allow me to short XRO anymore.

Doesn't short - only dreaming

[twotic]

I think he's mistaking market expectations with official Xero projections. My own reading, following the company pretty closely, is that RD has generally talked down the US and has been pretty clear that while a huge opportunity, it could take a number of years. He still says the main growth engines at present are Aust and the UK. He's also been straight up about when Xero will hit profitability. And, he's has also been honest about failure and changed course accordingly (Xero personal, US appointments...)

would love over to know when he got in short. Must be sweating at present...

Thanks, it does seem that way doesn't it. I just get a bit frustrated when people post opinion as fact - particularly when they are incorrect.

[twotic]

I think it's fair to believe that early US growth has been slower than Xero and Rod may have expected, but I think they have always said the US was a special case with a strong incumbent and different operating and legislative environment. They have been more vocal in their warning about this than they have been bullish about what and how things will be achieved. They have talked up the potential of the US market, but I think been careful not to promise anything.

So I think it's incorrect to label them as having over-promised and under-delivered, and I think Rod has often gone to some length to avoid that, sticking to the 80% growth predictions as the bottom line, which, as far as I can see, have been met. The UK growth is fantastic alone and will clearly be ready to take over the growth baton from Australia once that starts to ease in the next couple of years based on projections.


Bang on mate, couldn't have put it better myself.

[skid]

I think it's fair to believe that early US growth has been slower than Xero and Rod may have expected, but I think they have always said the US was a special case with a strong incumbent and different operating and legislative environment. They have been more vocal in their warning about this than they have been bullish about what and how things will be achieved. They have talked up the potential of the US market, but I think been careful not to promise anything.

So I think it's incorrect to label them as having over-promised and under-delivered, and I think Rod has often gone to some length to avoid that, sticking to the 80% growth predictions as the bottom line, which, as far as I can see, have been met. The UK growth is fantastic alone and will clearly be ready to take over the growth baton from Australia once that starts to ease in the next couple of years based on projections.

That's not to say that 60% US growth in the next results, which for many other companies is seen as delightful news, will be taken as disappointing and drag the SP. It's a crazy scale for this company.

Oh and Daytr I think the old chestnut about Xero not yet turning a profit is just an out of date sentiment for this company. they have plainly said they are gearing for growth and aiming high. They could close offices and retrench at any time and make an instant profit based on current sales alone, but thats not the plan is it? Gear for growth and keep going, and clearly investors arn't concerned about it not yet making a profit because thats not the immediate goal. So why are you worried about this? High cost of sales its true but any engine needs a good guzzle of gas to get going and accelerate to the speed you want, then you can start taking your foot off and enjoy the ride and efficiencies.

While these points are useful in debating the issue of over promising--they are also very relevant as to how you value this company.
Rod is telling you that the US market could be harder to crack than expected(so prudent investors should price the co. accordingly.)

[bull....]

Hi Daytr, where did you go short because I am looking to do the same thing and the provider I used last time does not allow me to short XRO anymore.

Your provider may restrict shorting when they have allocated all there available stock already.

[Daytr]

I trade CFDs

[twotic]

For the sake of open disclosure I'm out at $25. One could argue this news has effectively brought about a 55%+ rise in the SP which IMHO is a bit much. I purchased my latest block of shares at $17.70 held on for a bit of a loss for a few months but am happy now to bank the profits.

I may well be back in again soon, I believe in this company but don't have as long a time frame as others and feel I must be realistic as well!

Good luck to those who continue to hold.

Couta I hope you are getting some good advice.

[Daytr]

In 2012 from a company presentation.
The target for 1 million customers globally.
The US percentage of that was 53.5% or 535k customers.
As of the last report they have 22k customers in the US.
Two years later & only 22 thousand customers in the US.
They haven't even achieved 5% of what they forecast!
Grossly over promised & under delivered on the US sales as I have been saying.
Australian & NZ sales are on or actually over forecast, however its always been the US that has driven the huge valuations of XRO.

So don't get frustrated or annoyed when people make claims, that are quite legitimate, do your research.
It took me five minutes to find the information, but I shouldn't have to do that just to disprove challenges to what were clearly facts.

Cheers Daytr

[bull....]

I trade CFDs

yes most likely way shorted, unless you big enough to loan some from an insto anyway that 25 proved a good level to vacate at.
I had 25 as previous resistance from quite a way back mentioned it back then as well in some previous posts many moons ago