Xro - xero

[Harvey Specter]

Teh real benefit is to allow the current US VC's to be able to sell down their investment. No way they could find a buyer big enough in the NZ market.

[Ryrynz]

That the maximum aggregate annual remuneration able to be paid to the Non-Executive Directors be increased by NZ$350,000 from NZ$500,000 to NZ$850,000, with immediate effect.

0_o

[Toasty]

That the maximum aggregate annual remuneration able to be paid to the Non-Executive Directors be increased by NZ$350,000 from NZ$500,000 to NZ$850,000, with immediate effect.

0_o

Don't forget that pays for two extra directors and if I may say so they now have some pretty heavy hitters on board.

[Toasty]

Don't forget that pays for two extra directors and if I may say so they now have some pretty heavy hitters on board.

Having said that there was one lady at the AGM who voted Nay to Sam Morgan and Lee Hatton and the extra fees for Lee Hatton. Not to say that she shouldn't vote in the negative but it was interesting to see dissent for a change. She also didn't laugh at any of Rods jokes. Tough crowd.

[RGR367]

The video of the AGM is now available on the blog site. Watch it and perhaps share your thoughts again.

[Bobcat.]

Enjoying this nice lift in sp? I am, but unsure what to do next week. Charting patterns on this stock are different to most, making me hesitate to sell on the 3rd day of a spike like I normally would.

Yep, this bullish run has nice legs standing on solid ground (with a firm bottom at around 2300). It could really jump nicely from here (all the way until Equity markets self-correct).

BC

[Everwood]

Enjoying this nice lift in sp? I am, but unsure what to do next week. Charting patterns on this stock are different to most, making me hesitate to sell on the 3rd day of a spike like I normally would.

Yep, this bullish run has nice legs standing on solid ground (with a firm bottom at around 2300). It could really jump nicely from here (all the way until Equity markets self-correct).

BC

It is nice to see lift in the share price, but I intend to hold on to this stock until it hits $80 per share before I sell any more shares.

[couta1]

It is nice to see lift in the share price, but I intend to hold on to this stock until it hits $80 per share before I sell any more shares.
Ditto or at least $60

[Bobcat.]

You red ink is not gonna get to 50% on this share, Couta - and PEB also now ain't looking so bad either, eh?

I got paper losses myself on a few shares. Most typically come back OK, which more than makes up for those that don't. Do you ever use stop-losses? I rarely do but often wish I had.

[couta1]

You red ink is not gonna get to 50% on this share, Couta - and PEB also now ain't looking so bad either, eh?

I got paper losses myself on a few shares. Most typically come back OK, which more than makes up for those that don't. Do you ever use stop-losses? I rarely do but often wish I had.
Yeah both looking a bit better, no don't use stop losses because I'm happy to go long just wished I'd sold a lot more stocks at their peaks that's all.

[robbo24]

I'm just casually watching the DMI indicator.

If that line crosses then there might be some good times.

The volume is pretty low at the moment though...

[tzbang]

Last time you said that was AIR..

[robbo24]

Last time you said that was AIR..

Yeah moosie you're a total drongo, how did you not pick a missile shooting down a plane over Ukraine and rattling the industry?

[skid]

And now Taiwan and North Africa

[mp52]

Look up Poisson Distribution. Blow your mind if you can wrap your head around the description and maths...

So I did that :scared:. The Wikipedia entry made my eyeballs bleed but further Googling surfaced this test paper (http://catsr.ite.gmu.edu/IntroATC/SafetyHomeworkWithSolutions.pdf) with solutions from The Center for Air Transportation Systems Research at George Mason University which has a more succinct description and workings for a number of problems specific to air crash frequencies and Poisson Distribution (incl. hints for solving with Excel). Gives you enough to work out whether 2014 to date is above or below the annual average for fatal crashes. Even so I lack the time and inclination to actually do so. :p

Bit OT sorry.

[winner69]

Tweet and rod retweeted

@KimDotcom:
Could all my followers please become Xero customers NOW (great NZ cloud accounting) before their stock price crashes and I get blamed ;-)

[winner69]

Why would we blame him? Is he invested? Is he trying to pump and dump like he did LetsBuyIt.com? If I was Rod I wouldn't be happy about that guy being anywhere near my stock!

Getting interesting

[winner69]

About as bad as sharetrader posters those two

[winner69]

The war of words must have been started by Rod this morning on TV

Sorry all tweets out sequence now

[winner69]

Kims follower Win Win wonders why

[warthog]

God KDC, thought you would have learnt the phrase "those in glass houses" and started living by it by now. Rod will be laughing all the way to the bank with a real, legal business as Kim Bafoon cries behind US prison bars because the big boys want to play "hide zee weiner schneitzel" again.

Can't wait for your extradition KDC, can't wait...

Touchy touchy.

Noted that you seem to have bought the whole industry/Key/National line, HL&S.

[robbo24]

Why would we blame him? Is he invested? Is he trying to pump and dump like he did LetsBuyIt.com? If I was Rod I wouldn't be happy about that guy being anywhere near my stock!

Why is Rod wading into this?

Surely it is an act...

[Bilbo]

Why is Rod wading into this?

Surely it is an act...

Watch the video of the Q&A interview with Rod here: http://tvnz.co.nz/business-news/kim-dotcom-and-rod-drury-in-war-words-6038777

He was talking about the need for nz political parties to embrace technology, and was then asked his thoughts on the internet party.

[warthog]

Nope, I just hate convicted pump and dump scam artists who try and masquerade as honest people.

Surely if you hate people like this so much that you feel you need to comment/warn people then the most effective place for you to be is here in this forum and generally in the NZ market. PEB alone should keep you busy - the amounts of money there are way in excess of any KDC "pump and dump".

Forget KDC. Focus on the big crims first.

[warthog]

Brighton-Early latest psychotic reincarnation would be at the top of the list.

[tzbang]

I am liking the current xro direction, come on..just ten more dollars and I can make a profit..

[robbo24]

I believe Robbo called it with the DMI cross last week. Expect more gains as momentum keeps picking up.

It hasn't crossed yet, by a small margin.

PSAR got hit and a close above sma30.

Pretty small volumes though, and OBV isn't exactly going wild but it's perked up ever so slightly.

Momentum is in the positives... For a change...

Dunno it doesn't look so bad but it's hardly the sudden Beast Mode Activated some would prefer... I guess we will see what happens.

PS rsi and stochastic are showing some friendly signs though...

[skid]

People are addicted to the ''beast mode'' they want a rocket under the SP and thats just not always going to happen--Im always amused by the ''Jeckle-Hyde'' personalities of posters,(detimined by thier buying and selling habits)

[robbo24]

People are addicted to the ''beast mode'' they want a rocket under the SP and thats just not always going to happen--Im always amused by the ''Jeckle-Hyde'' personalities of posters,(detimined by thier buying and selling habits)

Very true, skid.

SMA 50 at $28 and SMA 100 at $32 are looking ripe thought aren't they?

[skid]

If it makes it to the SMA 100 then Im sure the addicts would consider that a nice ''fix''--Its certainly worth watching--ofcourse it could bounce off the SMA 50 all the way down.
In terms of FA ,they certainly seem to have potential though.

[Bobcat.]

Most posts recently have been pondering as to whether or not it's time to buy....but if like me you already hold some, I'm more interested in the opportune time to sell.

Looking at its chart patterns, XRO has great momentum once it's been established, and can keep lifting in sp for several weeks.

Provided it keeps making higher daily highs and higher lows, I'll continue to hold...although in case there's a buyer who when he gets to the last 10% of his parcel spikes the price to complete, I'm also keeping an offer on market slipping it higher each day to sit at 5% above market price.

To other holders, what's your selling strategy on this one, apart from wishful thinking around the warm glow of a stock that's once again well loved?

BC

[Malpaso]

To other holders, what's your selling strategy on this one, apart from wishful thinking around the warm glow of a stock that's once again well loved?

BC

Early buyer here; I'm taking rocking Rod's advice and holding on for 5+ years; strategy = retirement fund.

[Toasty]

Early buyer here; I'm taking rocking Rod's advice and holding on for 5+ years; strategy = retirement fund.

Is this your first sharemarket investment or do you have others? It always makes me uncomfortable when people buy a speculative stock with the expectation of a huge payday down the track.

I would rather see a solid base of stable(if there is such a thing) dividend yielding shares before you buy spec stocks for the (hopefully) big wins.

[Bobcat.]

If I was an early buy and holder (ie $5 or lower... oh crap I was too, but I sold!!!) then the safety margin is massive snd I wouldn't be worrying about the current SP action at all...

Regardless of the price at which we buy stocks, it's still useful to understand and work the technicals so as to maximise profits...and to take the opportunity to ride momentum.

[Toasty]

If I was an early buy and holder (ie $5 or lower... oh crap I was too, but I sold!!!) then the safety margin is massive snd I wouldn't be worrying about the current SP action at all...

Good point. I assumed that Malpaso may have bought in recently with no plan other than to hang on.

Every day people ask me if they should buy into Xero. Usually people with no other sharemarket experience or investments. I always hedge my bets by saying loudly DYOR!!!

[skid]

I think a big payday at the end is a fair strategy for a spec stock (as long as your able to handle a big loss if thats how it turns out)
These types of share are probably over represented on ST because they are much more exciting to follow.

You have made a good point though toasty about having some safer shares in the stable.

[Bilbo]

If I was an early buy and holder (ie $5 or lower... oh crap I was too, but I sold!!!) then the safety margin is massive snd I wouldn't be worrying about the current SP action at all...

I bought early, first lot at 1.10 then at .90c SPP, and have held 65% of my shares. Average sell price $38 but did put most of the proceeds into other spec tech stocks many of which have done poorly since :( My gut feeling is to hold the rest of the shares for the long term and see where XRO can go, however I have read that the decision to hold is much the same decision to buy, and if you would not buy a share at the current price then you must consider selling. I would consider buying more at the current SP and with the slight momentum shift of the last week, but at $40+ I would not have considered buying, so wish I had taken that advice then.

[couta1]

There was a time not that long ago when $40 looked cheap and in fact quite a few wondered if it would fall below $40, hindsight is always crystal clear.

[Malpaso]

[QUOTE=Toasty;494539]Is this your first sharemarket investment or do you have others? It always makes me uncomfortable when people buy a speculative stock with the expectation of a huge payday down the track.

I'm just a humble accountant who bought a few thousand shares (amongst others) back when they were at $2.75 having been to a few of the really early Xero presentations and could see where they were heading. It's a punt that has paid off and as Moosie says some of us fortunately don't have to worry too much about the SP. What i am keen to see however is a NZ company do well on the international stage and having spoken and listened to a number of insiders and employees from the earlier days this is a product that should do extremely well into long term, competition aside. Attracting the likes of Chris Liddell is good enough sign for me. I frequently follow this forum and appreciate others viewpoints, certianly makes interesting reading. Nice to see an upswing in the SP though after some depressing weeks.

[Toasty]

[QUOTE=Toasty;494539]Is this your first sharemarket investment or do you have others? It always makes me uncomfortable when people buy a speculative stock with the expectation of a huge payday down the track.

I'm just a humble accountant who bought a few thousand shares (amongst others) back when they were at $2.75 having been to a few of the really early Xero presentations and could see where they were heading. It's a punt that has paid off and as Moosie says some of us fortunately don't have to worry too much about the SP. What i am keen to see however is a NZ company do well on the international stage and having spoken and listened to a number of insiders and employees from the earlier days this is a product that should do extremely well into long term, competition aside. Attracting the likes of Chris Liddell is good enough sign for me. I frequently follow this forum and appreciate others viewpoints, certianly makes interesting reading. Nice to see an upswing in the SP though after some depressing weeks.

In that case, well done. I know of quite a few people who were advised to sell in the early days as this company would never amount to anything.

I was in at IPO as well as a few more along the way. I have since sold quite a few as it climbed. Even if it all collapsed now, the ones I sold would still rate this as my best investment ever...and I have had some crackers.

I will probably hang on now to stay as part of the story. Certainly been a wild ride.

[Hawkeye]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/197766.pdf

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/197766.pdf

That's a pretty miserable report

Receipts from customers at $23.5m is only $3.1m up from the March quarter

Fantastic comparisons to last year - very impressive - but heck a $3.1m increase from last quarter is going to make this a long long journey to any respectable sales figure

Xero needs a rocket under it

[winner69]

I can understand why the shareprice has drifted down if fundamentals / financials are anything to go on. I have a feeling that many think that this is going to be a very long journey.

The cash receipts line is only going up by $2m-$3m a quarter - that makes $500m annual revenues a long way away

The only thing sky rocketing is the wages bill - hope they keeping busy

Just as well there is the carrot of a Nasdaq listing to keep the shareprice up

Anyway if any body interested here are the last 6 quarterly cash flow numbers side by side

[longy]

If it is considering as a grow stock still then cost of staffing went up may not be a bad thing. While other companies have been trimming staffing Xro still hiring... So fundamentally they would know what they are doing I would think.

[robbo24]

Winner69 and his "numbers," geez, you'd think he's running a tarot card reading business or something.

If it ain't hype, I ain't buying it.

[Carpenterjoe]

Anyone else thinking client numbers are now growing at about fifty thousand a quarter?

[Hawkeye]

Anyone else thinking client numbers are now growing at about fifty thousand a quarter?

Yes!!!! I thought that was just me! Mind you i'm not up to the play with which are the busy quarters, it could be that all accounting software drops off in this quarter and thrives in others. I hope so because I really like this product and want to see it succeed.

[Harvey Specter]

Back in the day when I considered Xero to be an 'investment' rather than what it is now, my wife, who is an accountant, always said I should put more money into Xero before the March quarter results are released as that is the quarter that accountants will switch clients to new software as they can start the new financial year on the new product.

Seemed to make sense to me.makes sense for NZ so true in the old days. Australia year end is June, US is December. Can't remember UK as I worked for multinationals when I was there.

[brend]

makes sense for NZ so true in the old days. Australia year end is June, US is December. Can't remember UK as I worked for multinationals when I was there.

Uk tax year ends on like 3/4 April

[Harvey Specter]

Uk tax year ends on like 3/4 AprilYes - I remember the stupidity of the individual tax year ending a few days into April but assume companies didn't use the same?

Per this, they also use a March Year: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_Kingdom

I worked on one company that used the first Sunday of the calander year - nightmare, especially if you wanted to take a holiday over the christmas break.

[brend]

Yes - I remember the stupidity of the individual tax year ending a few days into April but assume companies didn't use the same?

Not sure with companies. Only remember that odd date when completing a UK tax return.

[zijiji]

In the UK, personal tax (also covering sole-traders - i.e. non limited companies) end of year is 5th April (due to some weird change in the 1750s - not just before 6pm, but the year!). The government also works off this period.

For companies their year end is usually at the end of the month that the company was first registered. So if you registered a company on 6th December, it's end of year is 31st December the following year. Some companies choose their end of year to match the personal/government tax year.

Summarising, there is no definitive year-end, but a lot of sole-traders (i.e. non-limited companies) would change in April I would guess.

[Carpenterjoe]

Yes!!!! I thought that was just me! Mind you i'm not up to the play with which are the busy quarters, it could be that all accounting software drops off in this quarter and thrives in others. I hope so because I really like this product and want to see it succeed.

I have client numbers currently around 370k, although the lower price point in the USA could manipulate this figures (in a positive way).

I hope the 500k client mark is broken by financial years end and hopefully the client growth rate in two years will be nearer the 100k a quarter.

[Casino]

I have client numbers currently around 370k, although the lower price point in the USA could manipulate this figures (in a positive way).

I hope the 500k client mark is broken by financial years end and hopefully the client growth rate in two years will be nearer the 100k a quarter.

A week ago they had 334k after adding 50k in the last 4 months. Slide 6: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/197240.pdf

[Carpenterjoe]

A week ago they had 334k after adding 50k in the last 4 months. Slide 6: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/197240.pdf

Cheers mate, hadn't seen this. I might be a little ahead of myself.

But I much prefer to work off the quarterly numbers, than any of their presentations. It gives a reliable time frame to compare figures.

I use $250 as the average annual client revenue. I tweak this from each annual report.

[psychic]

Have not really been following XRO lately but interested to see that Bill Veghte and Chris Liddell bought 5000 shares each on market recently, even though they each have a pile of options. This would normally be seen as a confidence from within - but not mentioned here..?

[Hawkeye]

Yet the share price has gone down over $1.00 in the last 2 days, I wonder whats going on....

[tzbang]

xero SP just seems so random to me at the moment.. not that I'm much of a chartist but hard to make sense of it these days

[mikeybycrikey]

With all the SSH notices popping up and such, makes me wonder if Rod is looking at the SP more than he lets on and telling his Directors to buy up to instil confidence, or if it's just Directors taking initial positions?

My thoughts are to the latter.

I'm a little concerned by the efforts made by Xero to change the narrative lately. Instead of letting their sales do the talking, Rod is trying to respond to any sort of criticism of the company.

Remember him tearing apart this article from Stuff on the day of the AGM as if it was all lies: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/10297744/US-interest-in-Xero-fades. And how many times has he referred to one blog post from Intuit with "944 comments". He's talked about it so many times that I even remember the number of comments without having to look it up.

The number of customers announced at the AGM (334,000 on July 23) was a little behind what I might expected. Also, when Xero announced that they had reached $100M of annualised monthly revenue (16 June), they also announced vague (and to me slightly disappointing) numbers (>120k in AU and > 50k in UK). I might've expected one more significant digit there since there's a big difference between 50,001 and 59,999 users. These figures could mean anywhere between 60%-130% growth for Australia and 35%-223% growth for the UK. Plus there was no mention at all of the US. Does that mean it hadn't even got to 20k users in the US (65% growth)? I'm not even sure what the 18k US users from the annual report even means: is it rounded meaning it's anywhere from 17,500 to 18,499, or is it somewhere from 18,000 to 18,999?

I'm just getting a little worried that growth is slowing and maybe even the $24 share price isn't justified. To me the current SP is factoring in that the current growth will be maintained for about three or four years before tapering off. I'm starting to think that might not be a realistic expectation any more.

[bull....]

My crystal ball gazing chart says $20 in the next 2 weeks with 27 now resistance

[Valuegrowth]

Will Xero go below NZ$ 20? Psychologically NZ$20 is very important.

[couta1]

Will Xero go below NZ$ 20? Psychologically NZ$20 is very important.
To those of us holding with a purchase price around the $40 mark there are a lot of other numbers psychologically important about 20 of them in fact.

[MAC]

Will Xero go below NZ$ 20? Psychologically NZ$20 is very important.

It may well go to where the ‘market’ presently values the forward timing and rate of sales expansion MarketWinner, and perhaps with an overshoot, because traders do like to follow sentiment curves for their own peculiar reasons.

Applying the Clare Capital work of late last year as a valuation reference:

http://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/1310/Clare_Capital__Xero_Thoughts_20131003.pdf

Which scenario (1,2,3,or 4) do you think best fits recent numerical outcomes and the forward guidance provided by XRO at the AGM ?

[winner69]

I've always been of the opinion that Xero is on growth track 3 currently, with a hopeful shift to track 4 if US is successful. Over 100% growth per annum in customer numbers is going to be tough over the coming years.

Definitely on the Scenario 4 path

Even with the new shares (done after the Clare report) that an enterprise value of over $200 a share in 2017 (using their EV to sales correlation chart)

[winner69]

Seriously though moosie if you look at the FY15 estimates Scenario 2 is where we at.

Clare says 396,000 customers ....that's where it heading 284.000 last year and 334,000 the other day

Clare DCF then $8.11 (a year ago) but with less shares so let's say $8 today

Prefer his EV to sales chart

[Harvey Specter]

Hpw do you figure that Winner? Last stated CAGR was 87%, ever so slightly below the 89% quoted on track 3. 109% CAGR is track 4. I figure Xero can maintain a level inbetween those two at current clip. Looks like track 3 to me though with potential to leap upto track 4 if they get the US humming. THere is no reason why they cant get huge growth there in the short term - hell they have enough staff there already!

[bull....]

Article in the AFR today about Xero, 1 buy most analysts neutral and a US based one has a sell ( currently my thinking as i personally think its still overvalued) - interesting was most US based analysts who cover intuit and sage have not heard of it and anyway and did not expect it to be a threat to the leaders at this point in time

[whatsup]

Sub, $23 now $22.69 ! XRO used to be a great trading share for some, not now falling knife for a while IMHO .

[couta1]

Heavy selling below the 26 week low of $23.00. Next stop is $20, and if that breaks then the tarrget is Thiel and cos buy in price of $18.15.
And 5 years from now no one on here would have a clue,it would all be guesswork aye.

[Beagle]

Revenue multiples are great for determining the level of implied growth that the market sees in a particular stock. Xero is way off the chart and if I was looking at a US company with multiples similar to Xero, I'd be expecting 200% to 300% growth.

But we have a very stupid naive market that has allowed the listing of Serko, Wynyard, ikeGPS, SLI on revenue multiples that they should be no way near.I blame it on NZers just not understanding tech stocks. I think the analysts in the instos are using either long run static WACC's or even worse declining discount rates to justify the valuations.

Both these methodologies are inappropriate for growth companies and misprice the risk.

From my rant on a paid NBR article: " You simply can't apply a long term WACC to a growth company. It will understate the early negative or low cashflows and overstate the likelihood of success of the long term cashflows [and applies no factor for the risk of 'failure' as VCM discount rates do] A declining discount rate is even worse as it will severely understate early negative/low cashflows and overstate long term positive cashflows.

You need to make an assessment of the risk RIGH NOW and apply that discount rate consistently [which should include a factor for 'failure']. At maturity (ie much later when the risk has subsided) you can adjust the discount rate as it is a different set of investors investing, but as an early stage investor all your future cashflows should be discounted at a high rate.

Or just use revenue multiples to compare it to similar companies in America/Europe as a sense check.

By any measure, tech companies in NZ severely overvalued by an insto base used to valuing old school mature companies in the construction/energy/telecoms sectors".

The tidal wave of new tech listings recently is something I view as a clear warning sign the tech sector is overheated. Same thing happened, (mad rush of new listings), right before the Nasdaq collapse 13 or so years ago.
I expect a lot more disappointment in this sector in the foreseeable future.

[JamesST]

Rod mentioned at the AGM that more US customers were coming on board directly rather than through their Accountant (compared with their other markets). Seem to remember a figure around 30% coming through accountant channel in the US.
Not clear to me if this is because they're at an earlier stage in the US with less accountants on board at the moment or if this % is reflective of the market in general.
I also note with interest that the US already has 2 platinum bookkeeper partners. No other market has platinum bookkeepers yet. Not sure if the above % includes bookkeepers but will be interesting to see how different channels to market pan out in the US.

[Harvey Specter]

Rod mentioned at the AGM that more US customers were coming on board directly rather than through their Accountant (compared with their other markets). Seem to remember a figure around 30% coming through accountant channel in the US. I would have thought that this is because they are at such an early stage that only early adopters are aware of them, and early adopters are 'early adopters' so less likely to need be influenced by their accountant. Xero has sponsored a lot of start up type conferences etc so I assume these early stage tech companies are those signing up as they are very open to new cloud technology and dont have legacy systems to transition off.

[Santiago]

Posting this here for Couta:

http://www.prospective-investments.com/xero-on-its-way-to-more-than-a-pure-accounting-play/

hang in there!

[couta1]

Posting this here for Couta:

http://www.prospective-investments.com/xero-on-its-way-to-more-than-a-pure-accounting-play/

hang in there!
Thanks for that your a gem.

[lastmoa]

Thanks for that your a gem.


Seconded. And that's why Drury said "$50 BILLION company" last year. Thinking long, long term!

Good articlw thanks. I believe traction will gain in usa this year but, like the article, I see the success in NZ, Aust and the promise with UK enough to be very excited.
I see value (at least a hold) at these new corrected levels. If it is a longer term play now, so be it. Its still an exciting few years ahead compared to many plodders on NZX.

[bull....]

On track to fill the gap - by the way statistics probability has shown a very high % that all gaps eventually fill so that implies 19.30

[psychic]

So ...

having spent 2 days trying to get through to MYOB suppport, listening to crap music, no option to have them call me back, try online support to receive Support Request ...Our Ask a Question service is currently closed., filthy with rage that I cannot take out my frustration on some poor underpaid bored soul at a help desk....

can I ask, when will Xero offer payroll?

I wonder how many are like me, ie - would consider the switch if both Accounts and payroll were bundled. .

[Toasty]

Posting this here for Couta:

http://www.prospective-investments.com/xero-on-its-way-to-more-than-a-pure-accounting-play/

hang in there!

I thought this was a good article mainly for the fact that it emphasised that Xero is aspiring to do more than just provide an accounting platform. Rod has spoken about this before but I am not sure that anyone really picked up on it.

Pretty ugly at the moment but I still think early days.

[Toasty]

we use flexitime plus for payroll (which integrates directly with xero)

Smart payroll is pretty awesome as well. Good price and excellent free support.

[psychic]

we use flexitime plus for payroll (which integrates directly with xero)

Thanks NG- will look into this

edit - ditto to Toasty

[couta1]

I see value at $5 - expensive but maybe defensible at $10-$14.
Some people just have bigger dreams than others aye, now where was that bottle of Tui.

[kanaka]

I see value at $5 - expensive but maybe defensible at $10-$14.
At $5 I'd prefer ANZ

[dingoNZ]

we use flexitime plus for payroll (which integrates directly with xero)


Based of my model, if Xro were to cease growth now, its current valuation would put the SP roughly around $7.00. My target price in the next 12 months will be $14.50 based off growth figures.

[RGR367]

I see value at $5 - expensive but maybe defensible at $10-$14. I'm down by 20% since I started chasing it down from $28 and I will chase it down farther still but not that low I think :)

[blackcap]

So you would pay $840m for a company with $100m of (annualised) revenue?

Wow

I think he needs to get rid of the bug in the model :) Or add a 1+ on a WACC calc or something.

[Bobcat.]

Back in June, after XRO's sp broke through previous support at 2800, it plummeted $5 for a day and a half to bounce back off 2300 for a month. Similarly these past two days, but when 2300 was busted we see it bounce quickly off an intraday low of 2100, which is only $2 below previous support.

That is, its plummets are getting smaller. This week's may not be the last one (perhaps there is another to come ($1) to its psychological support at $20...but it does look like the sellers are running out of steam.

Discl: no longer holding...but looking to come back in again soon.

[whatsup]

Back in June, after XRO's sp broke through previous support at 2800, it plummeted $5 for a day and a half to bounce back off 2300 for a month. Similarly these past two days, but when 2300 was busted we see it bounce quickly off an intraday low of 2100, which is only $2 below previous support.

That is, its plummets are getting smaller. This week's may not be the last one (perhaps there is another to come ($1) to its psychological support at $20...but it does look like the sellers are running out of steam.

Discl: no longer holding...but looking to come back in again soon.

Sub $21.00 now !!

[Bobcat.]

The local popularity of Dotcom is an indictment on the mediocrity of NZ politics. I have better things to do than dignify his antics with a response.

Meanwhile, I am getting very interested in XRO at these prices, and now have a bid on market. I expect that with all the selling these past few months there would have to be at least one big seller whose given their broker instructions to sell down to no further than $20.

Trading to it.

BC

[winner69]

Will Xero go below NZ$ 20? Psychologically NZ$20 is very important.

See how MARKETWINNER goes with his psychology today

[winner69]

Holy crap. Down to $20.16!


It's all MAC's fault for asking what Clare trajectory we thought XRO was on

Probably was hinting at Path 2 ,,,,,,Showed. DCF of 8 bucks I think

[bull....]

My crystal ball gazing chart says $20 in the next 2 weeks with 27 now resistance

My price and time study worked out quite well lol

[tzbang]

Rod is playing right into dotcoms hands by engaging with him at all. Xro has seemed like a one slippery slope for some time now despite the company meeting expected targets. After buying in at 27 and 36 it looks very tempting now for more if you believe in the company.

[Toasty]

Rod is playing right into dotcoms hands by engaging with him at all. Xro has seemed like a one slippery slope for some time now despite the company meeting expected targets. After buying in at 27 and 36 it looks very tempting now for more if you believe in the company.

I agree. I always felt that directing any comment at KDC was a losing game. Share price is disappointing but since Rod has already bought me a new house I probably shouldn't get too bent out of shape.

I still think the long game for Xero is a good one.

[mikeybycrikey]

Will Xero go below NZ$ 20? Psychologically NZ$20 is very important.

To me $20 is just a number. The next psychologically important number is $18.15 where the capital raise was last year. It has broken through all other levels of support.

I'd also be interested to know what'll happen in October as I believe the shares sold in October 2013 for the capital raise were locked-in for 12 months and couldn't be sold. I don't expect there will be a big exodus in October but it's possible.

[David Hardman]

Question now is will Thiel and co step in to protect their investment? My guess is yes and an SSH would keep a floor under the SP. Time will tell.


You're kidding right? Do you think Thiel gets nervous when his stocks fall below his investment price? Thiel is playing the long game, he's a VC, his time horizon is at least 5+ years. He's not interested in the daily or probably even annual fluctuations in the valuation.

I can see this going lower in the short term but am a firm believer in the long term prospects.

[MAC]

Question now is will Thiel and co step in to protect their investment? My guess is yes and an SSH would keep a floor under the SP. Time will tell.

Disc - not holding but it's getting very tempting!

I'm not sure what that really means, it's doubtful a large long investor would care about short term volatility unless the fundamentals have changed, either coincidentally or as a cause.

Perhaps they may top up when they perceive value, if they perceived circa $18 as value previously they may do so again provided nothing fundamentally has changed in the interim duration affecting their anticipation of estimated forward free cashflows.

Has anything changed in that duration ?

[Santiago]

I have to say, as a long term believer, if the knife keeps falling I'll consider selling the house and going all in at anything below $18... I know there are wildly different views on valuation, and indeed I can see the merit in all of them whether $5 or $50, so really it's a stab in the dark I suppose. I reckon they're going through a difficult patch, business-wise, right now as they close out the accounting model and complete their package at the same time as their subscribers are starting to lose some patience. If they pull out of this and proceed to stage two: a whole different world of monetizing the connections between banks, businesses and people as well as the data they possess, then the story really begins.

All in all, wish I had sold at 40, glad in bought in at .80c, have committed to holding for at least 3 more years, am suffering somewhat as the knife falls and going for long runs to relax from time to time.

[Harvey Specter]

I have to say, as a long term believer, if the knife keeps falling I'll consider selling the house and going all in at anything below $18.Oh crap - what happened last time someone on this forum sold the house and went all in a tech stock! They lost their Porsche and now have to get around by being a RoadRunner!

[Santiago]

Oh crap - what happened last time someone on this forum sold the house and went all in a tech stock! They lost their Porsche and now have to get around by being a RoadRunner!

it wasn't me. I haven't had the chance to learn from experience yet.

[RGR367]

Oh crap - what happened last time someone on this forum sold the house and went all in a tech stock! They lost their Porsche and now have to get around by being a RoadRunner!

So that's how that handlename got derived :) But only probably if you bought at $45 then and watch this stock go down all the way back to 74 cents again will you see a lot of us running the street naked too :(

[bull....]

gap fill is the target not $20,

[Dentie]

If the big insider boys are true believers...perhaps they should get in there with all their dosh and buy back the shares & turn them into treasury stock until the market turns to their favour

[Toasty]

I'm actually hoping it goes quite a way down. It doesn't affect the business and Xero have implemented a lot of huge features lately with more coming. They don't have to be the leader in any market, just need to capture a decent share. A lot of the value I think will come in the business and bank connectivity strategies. I would be really keen to grab a few more and ride the story over the next 5 years, but I think the next 12 months will see a lot of the strategy becoming clearer.

[warthog]

XRO $20.16

Is it going under $20?

[Longhaul]

Well glad I sold out at $40, but if only I had such good timing with all my shares!

One thing I'm learning is that the death cross is a pretty reliable sell signal, even if the fundamentals haven't changed. I should have acted on that with PEB. Sigh.

[winner69]

Nobody can understand why the price is tumbling so obviously just an aberration that will self correct next week

No panic

Even Moosie is letting emotions get in the way and tempted to buy - first sign of a self correction

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11309464

[Snoopy]

It's doubtful a large long investor would care about short term volatility unless the fundamentals have changed, either coincidentally or as a cause.

Perhaps they may top up when they perceive value, if they perceived circa $18 as value previously they may do so again provided nothing fundamentally has changed in the interim duration affecting their anticipation of estimated forward free cashflows.

Has anything changed in that duration ?

The Xero business model is all about capturing large future cashflows by spending up big now. Problem is cashflows for the next x-many years are negative, according to the business plan. Rod is not worried because he just draws a trend line on his graph to get an accurate fix on future customer numbers way out into the future.

The thing with using discounted cashflows to value a business is that cashflows in the next few years have a lot lower discount factor than cashflows in later years. It is only the projected cashflows in future years that give Xero value. If business growth slows those large positive values suddenly shrink in the present day valuation calculation.

Rod is convinced that he has enough cash in the bank to see Xero through to profitability. But he can't really know that. What if his future revenue growth curve is not as great as he thinks? He will have to come back to shareholders for more money. My question for Xero shareholders is this.

Peter Thiel thought buying shares in Xero at $18 was a great deal when he thought the US market would roll over under the Xero steamroller. So what price would a 'new' Thiel be prepared to pay for new Xero shares now under very different market conditions? I bet the answer would be nowhere near $18.

SNOOPY

[Tsuba]

Jst look up PriceLine.com, Yahoo or Ebay if you don't believe me.

If Rod can keep the company well on track, Xero will be that story. And I believe he can do it. :)

Praise the Lord Moosie. You sound like a PEB bull.

[Beagle]

I agree Snoopy but that won't stop all the believers from getting their snout right into it when it almost inevitably hits $18 again sniffing about like hungry beagles thinking they're getting a cheap feed at the same price as Thiel and others.

[LegendOfRiot]

There's a definite downtrend but what is the point in speculating prices that investors such as Thiel may/may not pay for XRO in the current market?

[Snoopy]

There's a definite downtrend but what is the point in speculating prices that investors such as Thiel may/may not pay for XRO in the current market?

Beacuse if Xero needs more money, the market price will correct to whatever the sophisticated investor that is putting new capital into Xero is prepared to pay.

SNOOPY

[Goldstein]

There's a definite downtrend but what is the point in speculating prices that investors such as Thiel may/may not pay for XRO in the current market?

The restrictions stopping Thiel selling the shares comes off in October. So how much Thiel is prepared to pay for XRO may well decide whether he starts selling.

Still watching from the sidelines.

[Bobcat.]

I'm back in today, but a bit concerned that there was no bounce late arvo. It may yet drop to test 1990 / 2000. Unusual intrday patterns on this stock. Earlier this week, after dropping through 2300, it recovered late arvo to close at its highest for the day at 2322. That was bullish and yet the following day immediately dropped through 2300 again and continued to fall.

And yet, when the sp climbs, it rockets with good liquidity. If it doesn't bounce Monday, I'll buy a second parcel to average down somewhere around 1900 if it gets that low. Bounce it will...early next week almost certainly.

BC

[nextbigthing]

Yeah screamers are always good (poker face)

Snapster please clear you inbox.

[Ryrynz]

Here comes that $18 price point all the punters are after.. I said to myself it was going to happen but honestly didn't think it would. Xero is tanking so hard.

[couta1]

Star date August 15th 2019 Xro shares hit $100 who'd have thought back then in the dark ages of 2014:cool:

[tosspot]

People come on take your blinkers off, Every bubble eventually bursts. Just because it was more expensive yesterday doesn't mean its cheap today. Xero is valued at ridiculous multiples are measurements. Xero, wyn etc will be ALOT cheaper in the near future. may be 6 months or 12 but wont sustain this. Seen it so many times and im probably younger than everyone here. once a negative net income growth company starts making profit, they start becoming valued from it, which is obviously a hell of a lot less than the dizzy heights most companies are valued on from revenue during major growth period.

think about it this way - if your not holding would you buy more if you were, and if your holding would you buy if you weren't.

[winner69]

Reading this article one wouldn't be that confident of making any money on XRO if you paid $20 today

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/xero-shares-plunge-10-month-low-investors-question-us-growth-plans-bd-160945

Just a but -


"The Xero stuff just gets more bearish, all it looks like they've done is gone in and poke the giant that's Intuit and it's turned out they haven't managed to grab a first mover advantage in the market because their product wasn't ready for market in terms of the Xero product," Harrison said. "They've woken up Intuit and it's responded with a product that is."

So the believers still need to believe .........others?

[Snoopy]

Wrong way around. DCF valuations are actually far more sensitive to cashflows over the short term, not the long term.


I don't disagree with that, and I thought my original post implied that, so perhaps I had better rephrase what I said.

I had referred to the push out of the cashflow breakeven point, due to slower than anticipated take up of the Xero product. In the short term this will have a negative effect of the present day discounted cashflow valuation.

One could argue that if the development path is still on track, and because there is such a high positive value to future growth, including the ten year plus 'mature growth' phase of the discounted cashflow model, then the long term value of Xero will not be affected.

However Xero is not being developed in a vacuum. Delays in the product development for the US market will result in the relative attractiveness of Xero being diminished, simply because competitors will have had more time to sharpen up their own offerings. This will apply even if the ultimate design form of Xero is not changed from what Rod Drury conceived. It is actually the lower medium term growth of the company that will have the bigger effect on the present day value of Xero, IMO.

It is the short term effect that is very influential on the long term shadow. Both short and long term cashflow effects will be weighing on the present value of Xero.

SNOOPY

[MAC]

The million dollar question with all IT tech start-ups is, ‘what will the customer uptake rate actually be’.

I personally don’t invest in them simply because I’m a long term investor and the sensitivity analysis on customer uptake is usually too extreme to allow for a two year horizon to be sufficiently predictive in a sector where companies don’t typically have high value patents or other entrenching predicators. They don’t necessarily fit the tax free incentivised investment opportunity model we are blessed with here in NZ all that well.

But for a short term tax paying investor, what that DCF analysis does is allow them to predict short term (3 to 6 month) moves. If the company issued outlook for customer numbers alters, either up or down, the SP will re-rate to the next DCF run, particularly in the case of XRO which I suspect is quite well modelled by offshore analysts.

That’s not to say that very short traders (weeks) won’t overshoot DCF valuations and swing it around as they do, but I’m sure there are probably some who do quite well from it for their efforts.

[winner69]

About time we revisited the diagram that Xero Chairman used at the 2013 ASM that described their business model.

I notice that not used any more. Done its dash obviously but I thought pretty good way of telling the Mums and Dads that losses will continue to mount as the push for growth continues, the end result is far better

here it is again. the red dot is where I think they are at the moment on the journal. Somewhere between the blue and the dark grey curve and not very far along the time scale. Position sort of aligned where they put dots on the 'adoption curve' charts at the recent ASM, esp of success in the USA is an imperative.

So keep patient, it all takes time. Do a couta and think of the $100 shareprice in August 2019 (on that diagram more like 2022 I reckon)

[winner69]

5 years from now Robbo will have to come up with a much more extreme sentence than "beast mode activated" to convey how epic Xero will be. They'll be pumping out the cash faster than the Fed can print it. Dotcom will also still be in jail. Fun times ahead ;)

As Rod says incredibly well positioned

[nextbigthing]

As Rod says incredibly well positioned

Yeah. That's the key for the screamers.

''Winner 69' and 'nextbigthing' and 'Rod' what sort of forum even is this

[robbo24]

''Winner 69' and 'nextbigthing' and 'Rod' what sort of forum even is this

I can't believe you left me out of the phallic list.

:D

[winner69]

I see someone posted up on the NBR site that they didn't believe the Xero bubble had popped yet.

The IMF used, in a study, a 37% decrease in prices to signify the "popping" of a bubble. It also noted that prices always return to pre-bubble levels (and I mean there is NO/NONE/ZILCH examples of prices staying up. Not one. Ever.).

Take from that what you will. Looks like said study can also be applied to PEB/VML/SNK/GEO/SLI.

They say, for good reason, that you can only spot a bubble after it has formed and deflated.

We have officially witnessed the blowing up and deflating of a bubble in NZ people. And it's not over yet.

And it's all happened as the Nasdaq keeps on going up.

Nasdaq another bubble waiting burst moosie?

Jeez what'll happen to XRO if it does?

[Cuzzie]

Dotcom is claiming credit for Xero’s share price dropping 20%, as if this is a proud achievement.
Here is the link. (http://Dotcom is claiming credit for Xero’s share price dropping 20%, as if this is a proud achievement.)

[Goldstein]

Cuzzie, your link doesn't seem to work. So I'll repost:

http://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/dotcom-claims-credit-xero-shares-dropping-ck

Given that Rod Drury knows Dotcom is media savvy, he should not engage him in any forms of media.

[winner69]

Apparently Macquaries had a less than flattering report in Oz last week. At least that what I read in the paper.

Bloody analysts

[Banksie]

Unfortunately, I'm seeing sub-$20 this week after Fridays sell pressure and US markets being down. As per my bubble theory, I believe we have a bit to go downwards medium term as well...

I'm waiting for Kim's target price of $6.25 to get in ;).

[winner69]

I suggested to the iPredict people they run a pool on the Xero shareprice as at end of the year.

[Bobcat.]

Someones making money on Xero (and it ain't the bulls!)

http://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=Xro

Moosie, check out the data under the graph. Less was shorted on the .asx through last week after the one spike last Monday. Besides, it's a negligible amount, averaging less than 1,000 shares per day.

Today's lift through 2100 is a nice 5% bounce. I'm tempted to take a quick profit but instead will sit on my hands until after today's close which will be more definitive.

Monday's are generally quiet on the Buy side, and so if we get a higher low today that will be bullish IMO, especially if again, like last Friday, volumes are high.

BC

[Copper]

Some pretty solid sales at the higher price.

[Banksie]

I suggested to the iPredict people they run a pool on the Xero shareprice as at end of the year.

Did you add it to the forums W69? I'll give it an up vote. I didn't realise they did local stocks. I have made good money on FB and AAPL in the past.

[Copper]

I wonder if this is an anti Kim Dotcom rally?.

[bull....]

nice bounce from the $20 dollar price zone, not unexpected and as volume around that level on friday showed alot of people were buying

[Copper]

nice bounce from the $20 dollar price zone, not unexpected and as volume around that level on friday showed alot of people were buying
I think that's the ten day moving ave broken. Hasn't happened for over a month. Let's hope Moosie's prediction of drift from here doesn't eventuate....

[Hoop]

Mass of TA sell signals fired off late last March when the share price fell from $44 to $40..
Today the NZ Herald says (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11311665) Craigs has delivered a sell notice.... up until today XRO market has fallen from $44 to about $23 .....nice one Graigs ;)

[nextbigthing]

Come on Hoop be fair, they had to get their shares out before using the notice.

[tzbang]

be interesting if that sends it back down again or not

[lastmoa]

be interesting if that sends it back down again or not

May send it down on (I suspect) low volumes. I don't heed to much from these broker recommendations. Rather back my own research .... I personally think too much focus is on the short-term progress in USA. The other markets are large enough and good gains being made there.
I'm holding what I have for the bigger long-term picture.

[Bobcat.]

I'm out again. A nice lift this week but I'm happy to take profit at these levels, a bit concerned that we will get a head a shoulder pattern forming on major world Equity indices this week - e.g. the SAP-500 is now again over 1980 and IMO will come under pressure again tonight. If I'm wrong and it does manage to punch through 2000, I can't see it holding there for long.

Don't you think it's just a bit weird that when the US reports deteriorating jobs data, low CPI and a drop in Retail Sales, that Wall Street actually gets BULLISH (!) There is some flaky logic that the Fed is less likely to raise interest rates this year or next, and that's good for equities. It's economic insanity that worsening economic data is being interpreted as good for the economy and therefore good for business....just bizarre, and it cannot last.

Most of my investments I'm moving into gold stocks, BEAR.asx and one or two other defensive stocks...with the rest on the sidelines in cash.

[Ryrynz]

Serious question. I've tended to pick shares which if I pulled out when I thought it would be wise to do so, I could have made some good money.
Each and every time I think about pulling out the share price dives, not over a reasonably short enough period to make me think I should sell my shares
but slow enough that I think there's some chance if it recovering.. which it does, but over a far longer time than what it took to dive. As a result I sometimes make nothing..
My question is this, why would anyone keep shares long term, is there ANY benefit to doing this? At what point do you become classified as a trader and are taxed as such?

From what I'm gathering if I'm not riding the short waves I'm almost better off just having cash in the bank.


Mass of TA sell signals fired off late last March when the share price fell from $44 to $40..
Today the NZ Herald says (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11311665) Craigs has delivered a sell notice.... up until today XRO market has fallen from $44 to about $23 .....nice one Graigs ;)

I wish I had more info back at that $40 price point, a real experienced users game at that point, many of us less experienced and not so rich investors have been hit hard by this. Currently down 30% across my portfolio. Ouch. I really don't like that the mega rich are getting even richer at my expense..

An interesting link I just came across after looking up what Bobcat said above (thanks for information Bobcat, nice to see some sharing) http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

[tzbang]

XRO is a hard one cos it seems to have a mind of it's own at times.

[LegendOfRiot]

Someone should plot a graph of XRO % change over a week vs. XRO forum posts for that week. Seems to be many, many more posts when it's in a downfall.

[Copper]

I'm out again.

Most of my investments I'm moving into gold stocks, BEAR.asx and one or two other defensive stocks...with the rest on the sidelines in cash.

Good on you ,any profit is good.Do you invest in the larger gold stocks or things like BSR I bgt a few weeks back??

[Bobcat.]

Good on you ,any profit is good.Do you invest in the larger gold stocks or things like BSR I bgt a few weeks back??

We digress...but the gold stocks I like at the moment are OGC, RMX, EVN, TRY, BDR, RSG, MML, PRU, SCI, PGI and CHN.

XRO I'm guessing (and it's only a guess) will drop off through to Monday, after which a knee-up (higher than last week's $20.15 foot) could lift it again sharply...unless of course Equity markets offshore tank, in which case all bets are off.

Trading to it.

BC

[nextbigthing]

Bobcat you're back in then?

[winner69]

Mass of TA sell signals fired off late last March when the share price fell from $44 to $40..
Today the NZ Herald says (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11311665) Craigs has delivered a sell notice.... up until today XRO market has fallen from $44 to about $23 .....nice one Graigs ;)

Target price $18.90

[Bobcat.]

Bobcat you're back in then?

Are you holding NBT, and if so, what's your selling strategy?

XRO's just enjoyed a three day climb (as it did last month before falling again). I've sold out but will get interested again if and when it drops again to 2150...which I'm picking will be sometime within the next two or three days (next Monday?) - we'll see. There are a lot of factors influencing this stock...and since it's such a wee darling to trade, I'm watching it closely so as to further improve my timing.

BC

[nextbigthing]

Nope. Have never held XRO long term or as a trade. Follow it for learning/futures sake. Thanks for your posts Bobcat, appreciate them.

[winner69]

Doesn't the XRO shareprice always go up when these xerocons are on.

Like this joker tweeting from xerocons

@gillmckerrowJJH: Bought some more XRO @Xero shares online after listening to CEO @roddrury #xerocon

[hummerh40]

there's the decline, almost right on cue..

[tzbang]

well I'm out finally. After missing exits time and time again I gave up and walked out on this stock at 23.10 taking substantial losses. Now for the first time I'm hoping it falls so I can get back in again. ;-/

[Bobcat.]

Today we have seen a lower low (2270) than yesterday's (2275), and also (not surprisingly) a lower high (2360). If I was still holding, I would probably now sell until such a time that we again get a higher low...or at least a price much closer to 2100.

But do your own research and tech analysis. I'm just being very candid about my own conclusions (they've been wrong before!).

BC

[bull....]

potentially back to 27 which was resistance

[tzbang]

so far it goes to show you how many people listen to the analysts - a sell recommendation and she climbs

[dingoNZ]

so far it goes to show you how many people listen to the analysts - a sell recommendation and she climbs

Just FYI Woodward put a sell with a target of $21 back when it was $30, so it'd say its reasonably accurate. Most of the others put similar targets shortly after.

[nextbigthing]

Trading Holt?

[Everwood]

Xero has announced they now have over 147,000 Australian customers. That is up from 100,000 Australian customers which was announced on 26 February.

[nextbigthing]

That seems like pretty good growth!? Holders happy?

[Everwood]

That seems like pretty good growth!? Holders happy?

I'm very happy with this stock. I've had Xero in my portfolio for over 6 years.

[Bilbo]

Xero has announced they now have over 147,000 Australian customers. That is up from 100,000 Australian customers which was announced on 26 February.

I just want to say "put that in your pipe and smoke it" (or words to that effect) to all those analysts with a sell rating on XRO :)

[couta1]

I just want to say "put that in your pipe and smoke it" (or words to that effect) to all those analysts with a sell rating on XRO :)
Amen to that just a bunch of highly paid fortune tellers.

[Bobcat.]

Since the announcement, which is very positive, the sp tried to rise above $23.40 but has been pushed back again. This may be a case of buy on rumour, sell on fact.

Discl: no longer holding but intending to buy into the next weekly dip. Targeting 2150, but that may now be a little ambitous - we'll see.

[Bobcat.]

....I'd start taking profits right here...

Agreed, and have done...although with today's higher low and lower high, there's a wedge forming with buying and selling pressure both increasing. We may need to wait for Monday's trading to get something more definitive.

[lastmoa]

Unable to breach MA30 on high volume not a good sign. At least the last few times that line was breached and held for a while. This report is weighing heavy over the stock. I'd start taking profits right here...

Wow. I wouldn't sell. I expect xro to finish in the green today.
Yet another example of 'experts' putting out their recommendations on aomething they can't understand yet they put their standard analysis modelling over it. Imho

[bull....]

shaping up quite bullish for the week , after touching the forecast $20 zone which was a swing low point last week it could be a bullish swing this week esp if closes above 24 then be looking for 25 end of mth with a swing to low below 23 negative for the mth.
thx rod for the timely announcement hahha

[Carpenterjoe]

I'm pleased with todays announcement, five months into the year and on track for roughly 200k Australian customers by march 31 2015. Hopefully they can achieve my outrageous prediction of 573,500 worldwide customers by march 31.

[Copper]

Unable to breach MA30 on high volume not a good sign. At least the last few times that line was breached and held for a while. This report is weighing heavy over the stock. I'd start taking profits right here...
What happens if the Asian hoards appear soon and push it thru the 30 day,do we have a totally different ball game of just a temporary breather based on what happened last time.The parameters must change at some stage....

[winner69]

I'm pleased with todays announcement, five months into the year and on track for roughly 200k Australian customers by march 31 2015. Hopefully they can achieve my outrageous prediction of 573,500 worldwide customers by march 31.

You should go to rods twitter account to see the fun he and he accountants are having

@roddrury: Joy! Paaaacked to overflowing accountants checking out @Xero Practice Studio #xerocon http://t.co/d2PQYKZ85Z

[Toasty]

You should go to rods twitter account to see the fun he and he accountants are having

@roddrury: Joy! Paaaacked to overflowing accountants checking out @Xero Practice Studio #xerocon http://t.co/d2PQYKZ85Z

Check out the video of him skateboarding around the venue. Excellent. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVI5YSM3LO0&feature=youtu.be

[Carpenterjoe]

I should go check it out, its only thirty minutes away. Sounds like they might need another announcement by end of today, along the lines of zero breach 160k Australian clients

[winner69]

I see the Aussie accountants are so so excited at Xero giving them a Balance Sheet

Didn't Xero have a Balance sheet report up to now?

[winner69]

.......As you can see by the charts, XRO has been just one big fat uptrend for so long. Buying in too early could still really hurt. Wait until a true sentiment change starts, then buy. Obviously it hasn't changed if Deutsche is issuing sell calls that are now nearly 20% below market price!!!

My eyes must be deceiving me

I see a stock that's got way ahead of itself and is reverting to where it should be .... the extrapolation of the 200MA being the dotted line

Golly gosh that is about $18/$19 now .... maybe that is how Deutsche/Craigs do their target setting

Whatever well done to those who cleaned up as it went to $45 plus

[Harvey Specter]

My eyes must be deceiving me

I see a stock that's got way ahead of itself and is reverting to where it should be .... the extrapolation of the 200MA being the dotted line

Golly gosh that is about $18/$19 now .... maybe that is how Deutsche/Craigs do their target setting

Whatever well done to those who cleaned up as it went to $45 plusDefinitely got ahead of itself but are you sure that dotted line shouldn't hook up slightly more. The line looks a bit flat since you aren't using a log scale (I am not a chartist so may not technically be correct but you know what i mean)

[winner69]

This reporter Rose has no idea (she is in Aussie so lets not be too harsh)

Is it time to sell Xero as cloud rivals rev up?
http://www.watoday.com.au/business/is-it-time-to-sell-xero-as-cloud-rivals-rev-up-20140822-107143.html

And this analyst better never come to NZ and I take it he has no Xero shares

Select Equities analyst Mark Southwell-Keely has a blunt assessment: He says Xero's stock is significantly overvalued, and the executive team should sell the company now.

"Even half of what the stock is priced at now is way more than it's worth," Mr Southwell-Keely said.

Mr Southwell-Keely said Xero was growing well but that new cloud-based products from competitors such as MYOB, Reckon and Intuit would drastically alter the market.

"The market is pricing Xero essentially on the basis of a hypothetical of an addressable market, but the market will change so much even in two years I'd say there is little to no chance of those predictions being accurate," the analyst said.

[couta1]

There is so much analyst dribble on here not too mention all the other short term fortune telling that bibs and crystal balls should be compulsory for anyone reading this thread. Disc-Long and Deaf to all the noise.

[LegendOfRiot]

Didn't know Intuit (http://techcrunch.com/2013/03/27/turbotax-maker-funnels-millions-to-lobby-against-easier-tax-returns/) did so much lobbying.

[bull....]

Didn't know Intuit (http://techcrunch.com/2013/03/27/turbotax-maker-funnels-millions-to-lobby-against-easier-tax-returns/) did so much lobbying.

Are you implying these stock analysts say what ever they are told to say for a price lol

[Valuegrowth]

I can’t believe this?

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/xero-shares-could-halve-and-still-be-overpriced-aussie-analyst-ck-161306

Xero shares could halve and still be overpriced - Aussie analyst

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.

[winner69]

I can’t believe this?

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/xero-shares-could-halve-and-still-be-overpriced-aussie-analyst-ck-161306

Xero shares could halve and still be overpriced - Aussie analyst

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.

You missed the best bit 'the executive team should sell the company'

Seeing that $330m of shareholder cash has already been turned into $3 billion on the market maybe tha suggestion is not all that outrageous?

[LegendOfRiot]

Are you implying these stock analysts say what ever they are told to say for a price lol

Maybe...but it's interesting to see the results a target price can have.

[winner69]

We talk punting and horses (and successfully as well) on Sharetrader. Punters talk shares on racechat.co.nz

While some are bashing poor old Rod here's a few comments from punters


Time to unload your XERO shares. Rod Drury the founder is starting to behave more like former BRIDGECORP founder Rod Petrovecic. Anytime an analyst makes an opinion on XERO that Drury doesn't like he bites back.The same behavior was used by MR Bridgecorp before he went down. Mind you its only my opinion.




Congrats to everybody who got out of XERO IN APRIL. Shares have just hit an 8 month low.


Nick Lewis,an analyst from Woodward Partners Equities has down grader the share price of XERO. As expected Rod Drury has unholstered his gun and is taking aim. Maybe he should take a lesson from his name sake James DRURY of the Virginian and think before he shoots. After all what he is selling is only software and it will get outdated pretty quickly. .Sell now. I HAVE NO FINANCIAL QAULIFICATIONS AT ALL SO MY ADVICE IS ONLY MY OPINION.




Rod Drury is upset that Craigs Investments has slapped a sell on Xero shares.
He says that they are a bit dissapointed with this assesment.He then goes on to say that they have 29 million potential customers in the US OF WICH THEY CURRENTLY HAVE 18K.
My advice to Mr Drury would be that they will remain potential customers until they are yours.Go out and get them Sir.

Just a different perspective on the other side of the fence

One poster loves Heartland

[dingoNZ]

The Craigs analyst also said Rod should focus more on running the company and not what the analysts are saying. He should be looking at growing the company and not being deterred by analysts. He has a great produce he just need to implement it effectively.

[warthog]

Does anybody, pro- or anti- XRO, think that Drury isn't focusing on running the business?

There is reason why the Craigs analyst is a commentator (as opposed to an entrepreneur).

[Valuegrowth]

Even analysts make mistakes in this investment world. It is better to do our own research to find great companies. I can remember some analysts downgraded some meat stocks in the past. This situation created buying opportunity for intelligent market players. These downgraded meat stocks have outperformed even broader market. Similarly it is time to study XERO before we take any decisions. Value investors should pay attention to great value and future prospects before buy any stock. There should be specific reason to buy and sell stocks.

[nextbigthing]

carry a big stick!

Done......

[robbo24]

On the company run side, everything is running to plan. Drurys charts he shows at AGMs are running exactly to plan and the company is growing at 80%+ per annum which is perfectly in line with expectations.

On the other side, the stock market massively overvalued the stock price...

Moosie,

1) As a percentage, how overvalued is the stock?

2) In 12 months time, assuming 80% growth, will the stock be overvalued or undervalued if the share price remained exactly the same?


Kind regards,
Robbo24

[Fisherboy3]

Actually xero is in a similar position as August 2012. Market cap 25 times revenue. Cash on hand 5 times last financial years loss. Analysts and financial writers saying it's overvalued by 20%. Many observers saying its a great company but overvalued. In 2012 it was MYOB that was the hurdle in term of competition this time it's INTUIT. Comes down to xero's execution and INTUITS response that's the space to watch the answer will be in carefully looking at how accountants in the US rate the product in forums/blogs/reviews/professional journalism and try and get a better grip of where xero is ahead of the pack. Today's share price is justified because of the market it will get in the UK,NZ,Australia and to a lesser extent US. increase In SP in the long term will depend on what % they get of the US market. In 2012 xero was about to list on the ASX this time it's the NASDAQ. Xero will not have problems raising more cash either.

Same position as August 2012 thats my opinion for what it's worth.

[Bilbo]

Headline in the NBR: Xero rival MYOB tipped for IPO valuing it at $A2.5b to $A3b
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/xero-rival-myob-tipped-a25b-a3b-ipo-ck-p-161282

I'm surprised no one has commented on this. At the top end of the range quoted, MYOB would be valued at more than Xero. If that were to eventuate, it would be interesting to see which company analysts call overvalued. For my money, when buying shares in a company I am buying for the long term, 5-10 years or more, and treat the decision as if I was buying the whole business. When viewed that way I don't pay so much attention to the current price, but more to the prospects of the company. Will the company grow and be worth 5+ times what I paid in 5-10 years. If Xero and MYOB were to have the same market cap today, which would you buy as a long term hold? For me the decision is clear.

Disc: Have held XRO for 5 years and continue to hold. Will not be buying MYOB

[Copper]

There are some damn good intelligent posts in last day or so.Very market oriented and to the point.Gives a change from the doom merchants and the dreamers and broking analyst stuff. Well done IMHO......

[Bobcat.]

The recent drop in the NZD has made this stock more attractive to buy on the nzx.

[Toasty]

Thanks goodness for all the negative press. The price seems to be going up again. Need a few more analysts downgrading it and we should be at $60 in no time.

[Santiago]

Thanks goodness for all the negative press. The price seems to be going up again. Need a few more analysts downgrading it and we should be at $60 in no time.

Ha, I was thinking the same thing. XRO is a contrary stock. Or maybe anal-ists just don't get it.

[hummerh40]

why the sudden increase in price on this one? can't find anything substantial to support this

[Toasty]

why the sudden increase in price on this one? can't find anything substantial to support this

Same reason for the drops in price. Nothing substantial.

[hummerh40]

Same reason for the drops in price. Nothing substantial.

touché. haha

[tzbang]

surely xero isn't heading back to 30.. just after I left, are we on the next ridiculous climb or a short term swing?

[Copper]

Holy crap. Down to $20.16!

Only eleven days ago NG.....Make another appropriate statement and we might fly on the other wing as well...cheers..

[Ryrynz]

Doubt there's any ridiculous climb coming, I wish I had known how ridiculous the previous climb was.. =/

[Copper]

There are some pretty grunty parcels going thru above $25.....The other day if you had 1000 to sell the price dropped about fifty cents plus.There may be something to the rise in numbers of customers in Aussy and the IPO of MYOB.Owners may be wanting to lessen the load in the very short term,hopefully scared.....

[Fisherboy3]

2011 MYOB revenue $212million sold to Bain capital for 1.2 billion - 2014 MYOB revenue $143million (interim 6 months) and they are saying they want $2-3biilion?.

[Copper]

2011 MYOB revenue $212million sold to Bain capital for 1.2 billion - 2014 MYOB revenue $143million and they are saying they want $2-3biilion?.

Grief...even I understand those figures.Don't get Balance on to it ......

[tzbang]

I must be cursed with Xero I think, was in a @27 the first round but didn't bail when I should have. On the slide down I cut my losses @23.10 and almost as soon as I did that it climbs back up again. hrumph

Anyone want the SP to go down again? I could buy in and I'm sure it would.

[Fisherboy3]

To be fair - I think you might be confusing annual and interim revenues - but never let the facts get in the way right?

Quite right apologies for that I have amended the post. As far as I can work out there full year 2013 result was $243million but that $50million came from Banklink (aquired in 2013) so thats $193million still less than their 2011 result.

[longy]

I must be cursed with Xero I think, was in a @27 the first round but didn't bail when I should have. On the slide down I cut my losses @23.10 and almost as soon as I did that it climbs back up again. hrumph

Anyone want the SP to go down again? I could buy in and I'm sure it would.

You are not the only one here... Almost every time I did that I've loss money. LoL! But every now and then you will get one right.

It is difficult to some serious analysis on this stock... It is only my opinion but I think this stock has a really good future.

[Harvey Specter]

$50million came from Banklink (aquired in 2013) Really? Is that profit or revenue? If that's profit, it makes the $130m purchase price look cheap.

[couta1]

I must be cursed with Xero I think, was in a @27 the first round but didn't bail when I should have. On the slide down I cut my losses @23.10 and almost as soon as I did that it climbs back up again. hrumph

Anyone want the SP to go down again? I could buy in and I'm sure it would. It would be nice to have someone else as company for taking the blame for causing dropping share prices, must be time I bought some Spark again me thinks:eek2:

[Fisherboy3]

Really? Is that profit or revenue? If that's profit, it makes the $130m purchase price look cheap.

Thats turnover according to NBR's best guess.

[tzbang]

flatlining a bit @25, up or down from here? :mellow:

[bull....]

shaping up quite bullish for the week , after touching the forecast $20 zone which was a swing low point last week it could be a bullish swing this week esp if closes above 24 then be looking for 25 end of mth with a swing to low below 23 negative for the mth.
thx rod for the timely announcement hahha

Looks like it may close around that 25 dollar level

[tzbang]

still see a possible swing to below 23?

[bull....]

those figures were for this mth only

[tzbang]

That's cool, Moosie is going to do a chart soon. :-)

[tzbang]

ha ha I thought you might have. So.. in summary?

[tzbang]

hmm that's what I thought. Looking for a dip to get back in, had a target of around 21 but thinking maybe 22 is more realistic. I don't see it testing 20 again anytime soon but could be wrong. Many are still expecting under 20 yet to come.

oh and thanks moosie for the chart and the matt damon.

[Leftfield]

Thanks for sharing your charts Moosie

[tzbang]

well this is turning out just as you said Moosie. What would be your target buy in price is it keeps dropping further?

[tzbang]

Really? I was thinking the rapid bounce off 20.15 last time might indicate a more probably higher low this time around? like 21 perhaps.

[Santiago]

I was wondering what might be a way to assess interest in Xero, so tried google trends. If you put Xero in as a search term, look at what's happened in the last few months.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F02rsj7z&cmpt=q

Anyone have any thoughts about this entirely unscientific and unverified, but kind of fun approach to trying to guesstimate customer number growth?

[Joshuatree]

No but its very int for all sorts of things, many thanks santiago:)

[Longhaul]

I was wondering what might be a way to assess interest in Xero, so tried google trends. If you put Xero in as a search term, look at what's happened in the last few months.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F02rsj7z&cmpt=q

Anyone have any thoughts about this entirely unscientific and unverified, but kind of fun approach to trying to guesstimate customer number growth?

Haha, I bought XRO at $7 in Jan 2013 based on Twitter. Seemed to work ok!

Here's the same graph (http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F02rsj7z%2C%20myob%2C%20quickbooks&cmpt=q) with MYOB and Quickbooks thrown in to add some perspective.

[Santiago]

Haha, I bought XRO at $7 in Jan 2013 based on Twitter. Seemed to work ok!

Here's the same graph (http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F02rsj7z%2C%20myob%2C%20quickbooks&cmpt=q) with MYOB and Quickbooks thrown in to add some perspective.

Well I think we know who the loser's going to be. Two horse race?

I suppose whatever ever it means, it's good to see that interest is going up rather than down.

[Santiago]

Actually, without wanting to read too much into the squiggly lines, the Xero line is spiking in parallel with the Quickbooks line, whose pattern no doubt follows some US market logic. Maybe they're staring to take off in the States?

Buy, buy! SP back to $44 by 4pm Monday.

[robbo24]

Haha, I bought XRO at $7 in Jan 2013 based on Twitter. Seemed to work ok!

Here's the same graph (http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F02rsj7z%2C%20myob%2C%20quickbooks&cmpt=q) with MYOB and Quickbooks thrown in to add some perspective.

Funny how the regional interest in "myob" is highest in Fiji.

Makes me wonder what MYOB means in Fijian? Mind your own Bainimarama?

Also interesting that United States only appears dead last in Quickbooks...

[Goldstein]

Hi guys, just stumbled across an interview with Rod Drury from a few days ago. Nothing new.

https://blog.asb.co.nz/posts/2014/09/ambition-kiwi-companies-must-think-big.html

[Toasty]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/10482129/Xero-opens-Auckland-office

New office in Auckland and a couple of positive comments about the future. Cool picture of skywriting (laser?) in San Francisco as well. If that doesn't get your name into the American market I don't know what will.

[Harvey Specter]

Cool picture of skywriting (laser?) in San Francisco as well. If that doesn't get your name into the American market I don't know what will.ironically old school dot matrix (done by planes)

[dingoNZ]

XERO LIMITED (XRO)
MARKET RELEASE
12 September 2014
U.S. LEADERSHIP CHANGES
Xero Limited (XRO) announces that Peter Karpas is stepping down as Xero’s head of North America.
Ross Jenkins, Xero’s CFO, currently based in San Francisco, will lead Xero’s operations in the U.S. until Xero appoints Peter’s replacement.
Rod Drury, Xero’s CEO, says “We are grateful to Peter for his work and recognise his contributions in helping Xero become the fastest growing cloud accounting company across the globe. In his time at Xero, Peter helped establish strong foundations for Xero in the U.S. market.”
The company is concentrating on delivering best-in-class U.S. product features, building out its sales team, and launching a number of key partnerships. This will place it in a strong position for the end-of-year selling season in the U.S. and to create the platform for growth in 2015 and 2016 as the adoption of cloud accounting accelerates.
Xero continues to build its Global and U.S. leadership teams and expects to make a number of key appointments over the next 3 months.
In August this year, Xero passed US$100m annualised committed monthly revenue. Subscription revenue growth is expected to be approximately 80%, on a constant dollar basis, for the current financial year.
-ENDS-
For more information contact:
Rod Drury
Xero CEO
rod.drury@xero.com
+64 27 6000 007

Sharna Brockett
Director of U.S. PR
+1 415-837-3291
sharna.brockett@xero.com

[Toasty]

I wonder what happened. He has only been there 6 months or so. Hopefully personal reasons or something.

[dingoNZ]

I wonder what happened. He has only been there 6 months or so. Hopefully personal reasons or something.


Lack of traction, I'm guessing he hasn't been meeting KPI's, hence why XRO has been quiet on reporting US numbers

[bull....]

I was looking at xero vrs quickbooks thinking about there US invasion and noticed a big flaw in there product ( correct me if im wrong ) but it looks like xero you cannot do multi-currency on inventory where as quickbooks you can.

nz market compared to us market is very different sme in nz use accountants and are typically 1-3 people operation where as a sme in the us could be considered a 50 person business where they do business in multiple juristictions so my point being the flaw above if correct would be a big issue for us sme business more than nz business.

So xero think they will enter the US with an inferior product to quickbooks in this regard?

If there are any xero people out there maybe they could comment on this potential anomaly and please correct me if im wrong

[Leftfield]

I wonder what happened. He has only been there 6 months or so. Hopefully personal reasons or something.
My reading would be that it is indicative of XRO's strong focus on USA and that (just maybe) this person was not able to achieve what is needed (for whatever reasons.) So the negative is maybe; less sales or progress in USA than expected???
On the positive side - prompt corrective action is being taken and guidance to 80% revenue growth remains.

[Toasty]

My reading would be that it is indicative of XRO's strong focus on USA and that (just maybe) this person was not able to achieve what is needed (for whatever reasons.) So the negative is maybe; less sales or progress in USA than expected???
On the positive side - prompt corrective action is being taken and guidance to 80% revenue growth remains.

I am pretty sure I know which view the market will take on board if those reasons become apparent.

[Toasty]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/10486861/CEOs-Uncovered-Victoria-Crone

Fluffy piece but more references to a US listing.

[Shore]

To be honest, I'm pleased. At the time he seemed like a weak hire. To lead the USA, they need a bulldog. Somebody who has clout and can go in swinging and take it to Intuit (a Rod really). They need a big name. Peter seemed like too much of a nice guy, and with his past connections to Intuit, maybe he didn't have the stomach to get his hands dirty?

[couta1]

Panic selling on low volume, nothing to see here let's move right along:cool:

[Dentie]

Panic selling on low volume, nothing to see here let's move right along:cool:

Putting volume into context Couta...considering the amount of closely held shares in XRO and the average daily volume traded I don't believe it is necessarily "low volume".

Look at the current buying depth (7,900 total) and selling depth (17,000) and given we are only 1 hour into the day and already over 12,000 traded .....

[tzbang]

I want back in on this stock.. but not sure if it's going to test lower than 20 this time around? Thoughts? Why did that damn Moose have to hoof it.

[couta1]

I want back in on this stock.. but not sure if it's going to test lower than 20 this time around? Thoughts? Why did that damn Moose have to hoof it.
tzbang I've learnt there is no point in seeking others opinions on this stock if those opinions are going to determine whether you believe in the stock or not, if you don't believe the story then stay out, as you know Xro has a mind of its own and will continue to be volatile for ever and a day. Regarding the Moose, I bought Xro at $42.50 on a strong buy directive from him so he didn't always get it right but he was very good on the stock most of the time but I guess what I'm trying to say is DYOR and then be happy with whatever decision you make.

[vin]

tzbang I've learnt there is no point in seeking others opinions on this stock if those opinions are going to determine whether you believe in the stock or not, if you don't believe the story then stay out, as you know Xro has a mind of its own and will continue to be volatile for ever and a day. Regarding the Moose, I bought Xro at $42.50 on a strong buy directive from him so he didn't always get it right but he was very good on the stock most of the time but I guess what I'm trying to say is DYOR and then be happy with whatever decision you make.

Makes me feel better having bought in at $39. Ha ><

[Schrodinger]

I want back in on this stock.. but not sure if it's going to test lower than 20 this time around? Thoughts? Why did that damn Moose have to hoof it.
Perhaps use your brain and think this one through? Should be essential for investing...?

[baller18]

tzbang I've learnt there is no point in seeking others opinions on this stock if those opinions are going to determine whether you believe in the stock or not, if you don't believe the story then stay out, as you know Xro has a mind of its own and will continue to be volatile for ever and a day. Regarding the Moose, I bought Xro at $42.50 on a strong buy directive from him so he didn't always get it right but he was very good on the stock most of the time but I guess what I'm trying to say is DYOR and then be happy with whatever decision you make.

lol couta, believing in the story is one thing, but believing in a stock and buying it when it was overpriced is another thing. Not saying $42.50 is overpriced, as xero could reach 100 in 2 years.
However, believing in a stock means you have to buy it in its true value or discounted value, otherwise, people would just buy on believe for every stock out there and the prices for every stock would be outrageous. I believe in apple, so I'll pay up to $2000 bux on it, believe in PEB so i'll pay $10 for it now...

Not the best advice for other members out there...

But hey punting is punting!


Disc - Still a punter and still learning to become an investor through FA + TA

[couta1]

lol couta, believing in the story is one thing, but believing in a stock and buying it when it was overpriced is another thing. Not saying $42.50 is overpriced, as xero could reach 100 in 2 years.
However, believing in a stock means you have to buy it in its true value or discounted value, otherwise, people would just buy on believe for every stock out there and the prices for every stock would be outrageous. I believe in apple, so I'll pay up to $2000 bux on it, believe in PEB so i'll pay $10 for it now...

Not the best advice for other members out there...

But hey punting is punting!


Disc - Still a punter and still learning to become an investor through FA + TA Fair enough but I think the gist of what I was saying was offering some wise advise to tzbang as a person who knows about the reality of loss and following others advice and why would you buy anyway if you don't believe in the stock and the story for yourself?

[RGR367]

lol couta, believing in the story is one thing, but believing in a stock and buying it when it was overpriced is another thing. Not saying $42.50 is overpriced, as xero could reach 100 in 2 years.
However, believing in a stock means you have to buy it in its true value or discounted value, otherwise, people would just buy on believe for every stock out there and the prices for every stock would be outrageous. I believe in apple, so I'll pay up to $2000 bux on it, believe in PEB so i'll pay $10 for it now...

Not the best advice for other members out there...

But hey punting is punting!


Disc - Still a punter and still learning to become an investor through FA + TA

Yeah, believe and buy, sell if you don't connect with the story anymore. But it should not stop you from selling or buying anytime when you see an opportunity out there. GL to all of us (believers)! :)

[tzbang]

I do believe in the stock. I bought in at 27 and again at 37 but too newbish to realise buy and sell signals. Was out at 23.20 with substantial losses. Looking to get in again to recoup on the next cycle.
For me, asking for some more experienced opinions is DMOR ;-) Right or wrong at least Moose was keen to lend his opinion to whomever asked.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/10491385/Shares-fall-as-top-US-exec-quits-Xero

I think we're going to see a new low this time as investors react to this.

[Beagle]

Ignoring all the usual hype if one uses a simple technical analysis tool of working the 100 day moving average a lot of losses could have been mitigated.
Bring up a chart of the stock on whatever platform you use and you'll see there was a clear break below the 100 day MA at $38.00 at the beginning of April and this was a clear sell signal. The stock has been below this indicator since then which is all the signal you need to stay out, (currently $26.80). My thoughts are, (ignore the company hype and PR), to avoid this stock until there's a clear new uptrend emerging evidenced by a break back above the 100 day MA.

[couta1]

Volatility is the name of the game here tzbang expect plenty of it, I'm only focused on where the share price will be at in 3-5 years time the rest is just short term noise that needs to be tuned out unless your trading the stock.

[Beagle]

There's trading and there's risk management and loss mitigation which are completely different things. Some people might like to have a think about using simple tools like the 100 day MA and 10-15% stop loss limits to manage their risk.

[Dentie]

There's trading and there's risk management and loss mitigation which are completely different things. Some people might like to have a think about using simple tools like the 100 day MA and 10-15% stop loss limits to manage their risk.

Thanks for these insights Roger - I'm always keen to learn new methods etc. One question though... why the 100 day MA and not the 200 or even 60 day MA? How do you work out what MA is appropriate?

thanks in advance.