BEACH PETROLEUM - BPT

[Joshuatree]

▪ Beach is well positioned, with a strong balance sheet and robust revenue stream
▪ Excellent Cooper Basin drilling results support delivery of FY20 production in-line with original guidance ▪ Portfolio of growth opportunities available close to all 7 production hubs
▪ Forward investment program to be right-sized to prioritise highest returning opportunities
▪ Primarily the same plan at a prudent pace to manage market and pandemic issues
▪ Confident in long term oil and gas market fundamentals
Macquarie Australia Conference Presentation (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/5384860/)

Cheers.Contrarian play maybe peat? 67% gas and gas liquids with fixed contracts and downside protection.Invested in this so long ago , i cant remember if i gained on it.Chart poking up a little?

[peat]

▪ Beach is well positioned, with a strong balance sheet and robust revenue stream
▪ Excellent Cooper Basin drilling results support delivery of FY20 production in-line with original guidance ▪ Portfolio of growth opportunities available close to all 7 production hubs
▪ Forward investment program to be right-sized to prioritise highest returning opportunities
▪ Primarily the same plan at a prudent pace to manage market and pandemic issues
▪ Confident in long term oil and gas market fundamentals
Macquarie Australia Conference Presentation (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/5384860/)

Cheers.Contrarian play maybe peat? 67% gas and gas liquids with fixed contracts and downside protection.Invested in this so long ago , i cant remember if i gained on it.Chart poking up a little?





Yeh exactly JT
I guess if I am going to whinge about poor value (ala FPH thread) then I need to try and find some value. And I have Aussie funds earning less than 1% so I'e started loooking at Aussies large caps for some core L/T holdings.
BHP RIO WPL etc, so I wanted to do some comparisons on metrics etc so I looked at Beach. I looked at that Presentation you quoted yes , so that all sounds reasonble for the short - med term.
Concerns are of course OIL and gas gluts. Environmentalism etc , but value is value.



They have 50% of Kupe too.


Incidentally, Beach Petroleum is now Beach Energy - as is the fashion these days.
Thanks for the correction McD , noted! The ticker stays the same tho!

[peat]

Stratfor say a slow unwinding of production cuts will prevent oil going above $50.

OPEC+ Begins a Gradual Unwinding of Production Cuts




The OPEC+ grouping will begin to unwind its deep production cuts in August in line with Russia's preference unless a COVID-19 resurgence produces a wholesale reversal of demand recovery. Saudi Arabia has agreed to this since Russia, which has over 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity, already could cheat if it so chose. This unwinding initially entails a reduction in the headline volume from 9.7 million bpd to 7.7 million bpd through the end of 2020. Laggards like Iraq and Nigeria agreed at the June 4 meeting to come into compliance, but will probably still fall short of their pledges to cut. The price impact of the initial phase of unwinding will be to prevent Brent from rising past $50 per barrel in Q3, in line with Russia's desire to keep U.S. drilling at a level where production will remain reduced.

[Joshuatree]

“Opec+ has only one choice: extend the cut,” said Anas Alhajji, an adviser to oil-producing governments. “Differences will focus on the length of the extension."
Saudi Arabia poised to reverse extra production cuts as ...www.ft.com (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjLjpe-9K_qAhUTyzgGHawoBzAQFjAAegQIAxAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F9985dc57-708e-4c4a-ab65-0e3c4c6d74cd&usg=AOvVaw3faUX46dIt5otzn8KDY4Vu) › content

[peat]

otherwise what? Oil prices fall out of bed. ?
I cant read the FT article but headline reads as if its a certainty Saudi Arabia will reverse cuts - in other words produce more , Stratfor agrees but says it will only happen slowly and yet oil adviser says they must not produce more.

Oil does look like it might fall, to me , but so do most things and so far markets are still rising , risk on.

[Rabbi]

The problem with this sector is that sentiment has gone sour for obvious reasons, the most obvious being the recent crash in the price of oil.
Beach in particular has strong fundamentals, with a p.e. ratio of 6.18. However, the whole sector is heavily discounted to the strong cashflows
and profits of companies like Beach which I understand at the present time also has no debt. They could raise their dividends which would
make the stock more attractive, or open a finance facility and take out another company but at the moment the sector is in the doldrums
with nobody investing as they don't know which way the wind is going to blow. One for punters with deep pockets and big balls.

[peat]

One for punters with deep pockets and big balls.

Well I never saw myself quite that way (he said in a deep voice)

Beach Energy has been granted one of the consents it will need for the drilling it plans off the North Otago coast next year.
Beach is planning (https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/gas-exploration-wont-be-rushed-beach-tells-epa) to drill one well – Wherry-1 – about 168 kilometres south-east of Timaru. The Adelaide-based company, which also operates the Kupe gas field off the Taranaki coast, is targeting gas.

[peat]

a gas discovery (and of course oil up overnite) allowed BPT to rise 15% today.

Yay, back to break even lol

[Rabbi]

Great stock to trade in and out of over the years as it has rigidly followed the price of oil. Not that I ever traded it, but sagacity
after the event is one of my attributes.

Sorry , I sold some at $2.00 and then it went to $2.75

Big gas discovery at Ironbark would put a rocket under it of course.

[Taijon]

On fire today. Up to 190 cents. Huge volume as well. Has someone got early information on Ironbark?

[peat]

has all the technical signs , rising price on rising volume

go well, go shell , I mean Beach

12109

I guess it could be a little overbought right now tho.... but still this is good.

[peat]

Oil (depending on which variety of course) at least the one I follow is over $50 US/barrell. So much end of the world 6 months ago! Even six weeks ago BPT was only $1.15 I think it will correct here a bit maybe but appears very bullish in the medium term. So am taking half off the table. at $1.90 (30% in 5 months.)

[peat]

went back almost to 1.60 but oil remains strong and so has bounced back up quickly to hit 1.70 again today.
my rebuy limit at 1.62 wasnt hit. :(

[peat]

wtf ?

guidance only down 50 odd million EBITDA and share price down 22% ?

[macduffy]

wtf ?

guidance only down 50 odd million EBITDA and share price down 22% ?

That greedy Mr Market obviously expected something much better!


Edit: Beach reviews its reserves.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-30/asx-sharemarket-australia-amazon-us-stocks-asahi-allpress/100106150

[Rabbi]

That greedy Mr Market obviously expected something much better!


Edit: Beach reviews its reserves.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-30/asx-sharemarket-australia-amazon-us-stocks-asahi-allpress/100106150


Yes, the 2p reserves downgrade was worth about 5% of the SP so an overreaction by the market. Happy to hold for the medium term and considering buying more as
Beach p.e. ratio just about the lowest on the ASX right now.

[peat]

price went as low as a dollar! and now back to 1.40.
wow this is some volatility. glad I took some off the table much higher ,

It is simply amazing that this share can fall so fast and then rise up again so quickly. its been over $2.00 in the last year and as low as 1.01

[clearasmud]

price went as low as a dollar! and now back to 1.40.
wow this is some volatility. glad I took some off the table much higher ,

It is simply amazing that this share can fall so fast and then rise up again so quickly. its been over $2.00 in the last year and as low as 1.01

I wouldn't invest in dirty oilers anymore Peat.
Shorting being allowed increases volatility a lot.

[peat]

I wouldn't invest in dirty oilers anymore Peat.
Good on ya.

I think only 1 in 250 cars are electric so far. this may be a little dated but you get my drift - and it is projected that even in 20 years there will still be 2/3 ICE motor vehicles and only one third electric. Australia is still using two litres of petrol per head per day

Australia STILL produces more than 3/4 of its electricity from non renewable energy sources mostly coal and some gas.





Shorting being allowed increases volatility a lot.

yes thats a good point. possibly an options market exists as well I hadnt looked. anyway I must just remember to be a bit more courageous when others are fearful.

[clearasmud]

Much as I like petrol cars with increased carbon taxes and environmental standards (esg) coupled with an s curve uptake of new energy mobility most fossil fuel investments will end up stranded. Check out Tony Seba.

[peat]

Much as I like petrol cars with increased carbon taxes and environmental standards (esg) coupled with an s curve uptake of new energy mobility most fossil fuel investments will end up stranded. Check out Tony Seba.

until the wind aint blowin on a cold cloudy day. then everyone looks at the thermal. thats how I still see it. and this winter here confirmed even in NZ.

[Rabbi]

Beach tends to rise and fall with the price of oil and has been a great stock for traders and shorters over the years.
They did a good deal 3 years ago when they brought some Origin assets cheap( Lattice energy) but since then they
have had to downgrade substantial 2p reserves and apart form picking up Senex energy assets in the Cooper basin for $80m
have been quite on the M&A front.

Beach have got a good portfolio of gas assets in the pipeline but management at the moment seems too passive for my liking.

[peat]

Sold my holding a few weeks ago in the 1.80’s.
down 11% today I would think because of 2p reserve downgrades