BEACH PETROLEUM - BPT

[tricha]

It's all coming together.

Big Oil Entering the Shale Natural Gas Arena

by Hans Wagner, TradingOnlineMarkets.com | March 26, 2010

Print (javascript:printWindow())
Successful exploration of natural gas from shale has contributed to a drop in natural gas prices during the past two years. Yet the large energy companies have taken notice of the potential from natural gas from shale, lead by Exxon’s acquisition of XTO Energy and the Total/Chesapeake joint venture. Does the move by “Big Oil” indicate a strong future for shale based natural gas?
According to the Energy Information Administration (http://ir.eia.doe.gov/ngs/ngs.html), the weekly update for February 19, 2010 shows the amount of working gas in storage is nearing the average of the last five years. Working gas in storage was 1,853 Billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of Friday, February 19, 2010, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 172 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 56 Bcf less than last year at this time and 13 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,840 Bcf. Throughout 2009 gas in storage set new five-year records primarily from shale gas production.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/wagner/2010/images/0326_clip_image001.gif
As the volume of gas in storage falls, you would expect the number of natural gas rigs to increase. As of Friday, February 19, the natural gas rotary rig count rose to 893, an increase of 2 from the previous week, according to Baker Hughes Incorporated data. This marks the eighth consecutive week that the natural gas rig count has risen, and is now at its highest level since March 6, 2009. The natural gas horizontal rig count totaled 524 as of February 5, the highest level in the past two years for which data are available. The increase in horizontal rigs could be indicative of changes in drilling technology, as well as the increasing influence of natural gas production from shale formations. Conversely, the natural gas vertical rig count was at 198 on February 5, having largely dropped off from levels above 700 two years ago. According to data from Baker Hughes released on February 5, 2010, total active rigs in key natural gas basins have been increasing over the past year, after dropping off from highs in late summer of 2008. However, rig counts in the Louisiana-Mississippi Salt Basins (Haynesville Shale) and Appalachian areas are currently at highs of 138 and 116, respectively, over the 2 years for which data are available.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/wagner/2010/images/0326_clip_image002.gif
Increased drilling activities accompany the need for more capital to fund lease purchases, as well as exploration and production activities. The problem is many analysts believe that natural gas from shale has yet to be cash flow positive. The independents focused much of their capital on acquisition of acreage. Now they must shift to exploration and production to generate sufficient returns. The problem is the production profiles of many of these shale natural gas fields might not achieve historical trends. While their initial flow rates are impressive, these fields have experienced a more rapid production decline that more normal fields, indicating the shale plays may not be as cash flow positive as many expect.
As a result, many independents are looking for ways to exploit their large investments in natural gas shale acres without increasing their capital requirements. Along come the big energy companies with their vast amount of capital. The large companies are exchanging their capital for access to horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies. Big oil wants to develop their expertise in shale exploration and production to take it globally.
With high acreage costs, large royalty payments, and expensive production wells, many analysts question the ability of the independent natural gas companies to generate a profit at current price levels. Many analysts believe gas prices must rise to the $7 to $8 per Million cubic feet (Mcf) level before the gas producers can make a profit.
Exxon’s purchase of XTO at a 25% premium indicates that the major oil companies believe that shale has a future. The major oil companies have the financial resources to weather lower gas prices. By acquiring the expertise that the independent’s posses in developing gas shale, the majors are looking to find and produce gas from U.S. Canadian and other international plays. Therefore, we should look for additional acquisitions and joint ventures in the months to come.
Copyright © 2010 Hans Wagner
Editorial Archive (http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/wagner/archive.html)
If you wish to learn more on evaluating the market cycles, I suggest you read:
Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/redirect?link_code=as2&path=ASIN/1591396913&tag=tradingonline-20&camp=1789&creative=9325) by Joe Ellis is an excellent book on how to predict macro moves of the market.
Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/redirect?link_code=as2&path=ASIN/1879384620&tag=tradingonline-20&camp=1789&creative=9325) by Ed Easterling. One of the best, easy-to-read, study of stock market cycles of which I know.
The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/redirect?link_code=as2&path=ASIN/0132157578&tag=tradingonline-20&camp=1789&creative=9325) by Mark Douglas. Controlling ones attitudes and emotions are crucial if you are to be a successful trader.
Bio As a long time investor, I was fortunate to retire at 55. I believe you can employ simple investment principles to find and evaluate companies before committing one's hard earned money. Recently, after my children and their friends graduated from college, I found my self helping them to learn about the stock market and investing in stocks. As a result I created a website that provides a growing set of information on many investing topics along with sample portfolios that consistently beat the market. Feel free to visit the site at http://www.tradingonlinemarkets.com/?
contact information
Hans Wagner | Colorado, USA | Email (hans.wagner@tradingonlinemarkets.com) | Website (http://www.tradingonlinemarkets.com/)

The opinions of FSU contributors do not necessarily reflect those of Financial Sense.

[bermuda]

Thanks Tricha,
Have been researching Shale gas for some time and it looks BIG but it is expensive and is fraught with high decline rates and increasing EPA environmental hurdles. As for Aussie I think it is years away. EXXon has an environmental get out clause and as you know New York State have forbidden the Marcellus shales to be drilled/fracced . They want to protect their aquafers.

[tricha]

Thanks Tricha,
Have been researching Shale gas for some time and it looks BIG but it is expensive and is fraught with high decline rates and increasing EPA environmental hurdles. As for Aussie I think it is years away. EXXon has an environmental get out clause and as you know New York State have forbidden the Marcellus shales to be drilled/fracced . They want to protect their aquafers.



I do not know much about Shale Gas Bermuda, but environmental issues in the Cooper Basin, I think its a desert and Beach are spouting this is a high class deposit. With oil rising to $100 a barrel soon, game will be on and Beach is a ripe takeover target.

Where is the next Saudi Arabia sized shale oil deposit?

Shale Gas Going Global

An Interview with Dave Forest

by Keith Schaefer, editor, Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin | March 30, 2010

Print (javascript:printWindow())
Dave Forest and I are philosophically aligned. Dave writes “Pierce Points” everyday (and I read it every day) and he is a former Casey Energy newsletter editor. We’ve started sharing ideas and a key one for both of us is that we see huge shareholder wealth being created for oil and gas investors as the new technologies now used in North America – horizontal drilling and fracking – get exported around the world.
Of course these technologies are 40 years old, but only in the last decade have they been perfected so they can get oil and gas out of shale rock.
Being able to make an economic hydrocarbon discovery in rock as opposed to the regular loose sands is about as simple as I can make the opportunity. It opens up the probability of billions of new barrels of oil to be discovered over the coming decade or two. Where is the next Saudi Arabia sized shale oil deposit? I think we could find out in the next decade.
These technologies were first perfected in the Barnett shale in Texas over a decade ago, and has now become the big growth engine of oil and gas production from Louisiana to northern British Columbia.
Literally tens of billions of dollars in stock values have been created for oil and gas investors by North American oil and gas plays like the Barnett, the Haynesville gas shale, and the Bakken and Cardium oil formations.
But the question for investors is now – what’s next for shale oil or shale gas? Where will the industry create billions in value next? Dave is much more technical than I am – he’s a geologist, I’m a journalist – so I asked him to share with readers where he sees the next big opportunities in shale oil and gas, for investors.
“These technologies are quickly going to move around the world,” he said. “Foreign companies are scrambling to learn the tricks and “take the show on the road”. We’ve seen a slew of farm-in deals from companies like Total on shale gas acreage in Texas, and other foreign companies in other basins. More than production, these companies are looking to learn from their North American partners, and use this to unlock new basins abroad.”
So which shale basins do you think will get developed next?
“Well, before I answer that, it’s important to know that economic shale gas is about more than just geology. There are a lot of gas-bearing shales around the world. But making money cracking shales is a tough game. You need high-quality services at a reasonable cost. China is cheap but probably not good, and the UK is good but well costs can run 2 to 3 times the cost for a comparable well in Texas. That blows your profitability.”
OK, sssoooo….how will investors know what the next big international shale play?
“Money will be made in overseas shale gas. But it will take places with
1) a strong gas market, and decent pricing,
2) lots of services competition, and
3) basins with good history of conventional production, where geologic data is readily available.
Poland and the Czech Republic have been held up as examples of countries where all these goals might be achieved.
Perhaps more interesting is the shale gas activity that’s starting to pick up in southeast Asia, e.g. northern Thailand. One angle here may be access to affordable, high-quality services from Japan. Combined with a strong southeast Asian gas market, shale gas projects might be economic here.”
In our next story, Dave will help us understand how market economics in the gas industry in Europe is changing, and how that could affect shale gas plays there.
Dave Forest’s analysis on the natural resources sector has been featured on BNN, Kitco.com (http://kitco.com/), Financial Sense and the Daily Reckoning. He is a professional geologist and formerly advised a worldwide client base on oil/gas, mining and renewable energy at Casey Research LLC. Dave currently serves as managing director of Notela Resource Advisors Ltd. (http://www.notela.com/) and writes the daily e-letter Pierce Points, on natural resources and the macro-economics that drive the sector.
You can sign up for Dave’s daily letter at www.piercepoints.com (http://www.piercepoints.com/). (He is a great read – more concise than me).
And yes Part III of Fracking series is coming.

[tricha]

Lifes a Beach! Beach is a sleeping giant, it has got it and when the market awakes, watch this space.

Page last updated at 23:15 GMT, Thursday, 8 April 2010 00:15 UK
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/email.gif E-mail this to a friend (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/mpapps/pagetools/email/news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8609131.stm)http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/print.gif Printable version (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/mpapps/pagetools/print/news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8609131.stm?ad=1)
Should Gazprom fear shale gas revolution?



By Konstantin Rozhnov
Business reporter, BBC News
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/999999.gif

European countries heavily dependent on Russian gas supplies are cheered by signs of a balance shift in the continent's energy market.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/47608000/jpg/_47608721_002702906-1.jpg Russia supplies more than a quarter of Europe's gas needs

Dozens of companies, including world majors, have begun exploring or even drilling in search of shale gas, amid talk of huge reserves in the US, Poland and many other countries.
Russian gas giant Gazprom's deputy chief executive Alexander Medvedev has reacted by branding shale gas projects as "dangerous", provoking suspicions that Russia could be unnerved by the latest developments in the world gas market.
In 2009, Russia was beaten by the US to the title of the world's leader in gas production, but it still satisfies more than a quarter of Europe's gas needs.
For his part, the head of Russia's union of oil and gas producers, Gennady Shmal, has told journalists: "Statements that there will be a revolution in the gas industry and that the United States and Europe will manage without our gas are a propagandistic stunt."
He added, however, that "it is necessary to monitor the situation in this sector", according to Itar-Tass news agency.
US know-how
US Energy Secretary Steven Chu said that US natural gas reserves had "definitely" increased by a third and had "probably doubled", thanks to new natural gas drilling technologies.
One of the unconventional methods which attracts a lot of attention and is credited with contributing to the US natural gas production surge is so-called "hydraulic fracturing", the technique of shale gas extraction.
Shale gas deposits sit in tight rock formations at depths of up to 3km, but new technology has made them accessible for the first time.
Shale gas now accounts for up to 20% of US natural gas production, and the US has been ready to help other countries discover whether they possess significant shale gas resources and show them how to turn the reserves into money.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif If a commercially beneficial technology is found, the issue will be raised about the need for Russian gas exports to Europe http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif


Vladimir Chuprov, Greenpeace Russia

According to estimates by consultants Advanced Resources International, Poland alone could have 3 trillion cubic metres of potentially recoverable reserves of shale gas, enough to satisfy domestic demand for more than 200 years.
Russian daily Kommersant has reported that Europe's gas reserves could jump 47% if Poland's gas reserves are confirmed.
Poland consumes 14bn cubic metres of gas a year and imports more than 70% of it from Russia.
It is easy to see how the country could benefit from starting shale gas drilling as soon as possible. Not only could it decrease its dependency on Russia, it might even turn into a gas exporter.
But specialists highlight a number of difficulties with implementing the US shale gas drilling experience in Europe.
"We certainly see it [shale gas] as a major opportunity, but we also think it's important to manage expectations," US special envoy for Eurasian energy Richard Morningstar said in an interview with Reuters news agency.
Money and environment
One of the problems is the cost of shale gas extraction.
"In terms of reserves, it [shale gas] is comparable with high-pressure gas and is present everywhere, but the questions is whether the shale gas extraction technology can advance to a commercially advantageous level," said Greenpeace Russia energy programme director Vladimir Chuprov.
"If a commercially beneficial technology is found, the issue will be raised about the need for Russian gas exports to Europe, which may create serious problems for Gazprom," Ria Novosti news agency quotes Mr Chuprov as saying.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/47608000/jpg/_47608891_001941182-1.jpg Poland has to import more than 70% of its gas supplies from Russia

But it looks as though Gazprom officials do not have too many reasons to lose sleep over shale gas at present, partly because there is another big factor working against it - environmental concerns.
The US Environmental Protection Agency announced last month it was going to study the impact of the hydraulic fracturing technique on people's health and environment.
Under the technique, water, sand and chemicals are pumped into rock formations under high pressure.
A number of environmentalists are concerned the method could contaminate drinking water supplies.
It also requires the drilling of a lot of wells close to each other, which leads to a more significant footprint.
Besides, as some point out, it will take longer for shale gas drilling to take off in Europe than it took in the US, purely because there are not enough of the land drilling rigs in Europe that are essential for shale gas projects.
'Energy security'
Nevertheless, the Polish government has been an active supporter of the projects, says Oisin Fanning, head of the British company San Leon Energy, which has exploration licences in Poland.
"The government is creating a very large commercial incentive to develop these [shale gas] deposits," he told the Times newspaper.
Mr Morningstar, US special envoy for Eurasian energy, believes that shale gas "certainly can be a way" to increase Eastern Europe's energy security, if these projects in the region's countries succeed.
"It's not a question of being independent from Russia - it's a question of having overall energy security," he says.
But other experts point out that even if planned European shale gas projects do not bring significant results, Gazprom could still find itself under pressure from rising shale gas production in the US and other parts of the world.
Falling demand and increased gas production in the US have already forced the Russian gas monopoly to divert its liquefied natural gas from North America to Asia.
For now, Gazprom does not appear to have a serious shale gas problem. But the company may need to think carefully about whether it should start getting seriously worried soon.

[macduffy]

Did anyone else notice that 45% of BPT turnover yesterday was short sales?

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=macduffy;301168]Did anyone else notice that 45% of BPT turnover yesterday was short sales?[/QUOTE)

Na where did you find that imfo Mac be real interesting how many shorts are on ROC going well of late

[macduffy]

JB, have a look at

www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

Note that it's a daily report of transactions. Doesn't tell you what the total outstandings are on individual stocks.

[tricha]

Did anyone else notice that 45% of BPT turnover yesterday was short sales?

So on a bad day on the market, Friday we had a good turnover on Beach and a price increase, does this mean people who sold short, had to buy on this day to make due a shortfall.

?? I do not understand short selling, can someone edify me please.

[Huang Chung]

Just a wiki explanation, but it should do the trick....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_(finance)

[tricha]

Just a wiki explanation, but it should do the trick....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_(finance)

Can not get an answer, can you try again Huang, thanks.

[drillfix]

Can not get an answer, can you try again Huang, thanks.

Have a read of this Tricha, this is a version from Commsec, but it will be quite easy to understand.

https://orders.comsec.com.au/ClientAccess/ShortSelling/Initial/PDFs/DaySSBrochure.pdf

Also take note there is also Short Term selling too, which works similar but different rules. Can also explain a few things at times with certain stocks behaviours.

Hope this helps.

[ELYOB]

From the Rottnest talks and the LKO deal , the Beach is prepared to spend Cooper Basin $30m + LKO $10m =$40m over the next 12 months , so guess it is a very serious biz.,.

Now , would some US player be attracted , and it could be handed on a plate ?

Euroz are valuing the play in the Cooper alone at possible $500m value . No one has tried to put a number on LKO JV , BPT would not be playing unless it was serious stuff.

Hold BPT

[macduffy]

So on a bad day on the market, Friday we had a good turnover on Beach and a price increase, does this mean people who sold short, had to buy on this day to make due a shortfall.

?? I do not understand short selling, can someone edify me please.

I'm not sure if you're pulling our legs here, tricha but here's my potted version of my understanding of short selling.

Non-holders of a stock who, for whatever reason, anticipate a fall in the SP are able to borrow stock from a holder, for a fee, and sell that stock. These sales must be disclosed as "short sales".

Naturally, they have to buy back at some stage to return the borrowed stock. These purchases are not tagged as shorts.

You might recall that the ASX banned short sales at one point during the GFC and extended the ban on financial stocks for a further period.

Controversy/discussion continues on the ethics/propriety of short selling but that's another subject!

Cheers

[Huang Chung]

And, don't forget, if the share price goes up, someone 'short' faces potentially unlimited losses....so buying stock back to close their short position is call short covering.

You will sometimes hear of short covering rallies, where shorts are scrambling, for whatever reason, to buy stock back.

[tricha]

And, don't forget, if the share price goes up, someone 'short' faces potentially unlimited losses....so buying stock back to close their short position is call short covering.

You will sometimes hear of short covering rallies, where shorts are scrambling, for whatever reason, to buy stock back.


Thanks guys for the "Short story", not that I'm going to do any shorting, but it makes it clear, that we have a stock that is a gambling stock based upon, all the stuff happening inside the company and on top of it we have shorters who are buying 45% on a gamble, that the price will crash, maybe I will write a letter to he chairman suggesting it's time to stop paying dividends and use the funds for a share buy back, this would put value back in the company and keep these company wreckers at bay.

I can not believe someone like Santos has not made a move yet, this company being seriously undervalued. ELYOB - Euroz are valuing the play in the Cooper alone at possible $500m value I do not even take this into my calculation.

[macduffy]

Interestingly, the 45% short sales weren't a one-off event. No less than 64% of Friday's sales were shorts! That's a pretty big number for any company and does make me wonder what is going on.

[JBmurc]

Interestingly, the 45% short sales weren't a one-off event. No less than 64% of Friday's sales were shorts! That's a pretty big number for any company and does make me wonder what is going on.

they believed the market futures ? DOW futures looked weak on friday

[macduffy]

I don't think that's the reason.

A couple of other Aust companies were also in the 60% range but these were the exceptions.

[shasta]

I don't think that's the reason.

A couple of other Aust companies were also in the 60% range but these were the exceptions.

BPT - Presentation - Worth a read especially re there focus on Shale Gas in the Cooper Basin

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=177736

BPT Accelerates Cooper Basin Shale Gas Program

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=177737

[macduffy]

And the market shrugs.

BPT SP up half a cent.

[Phaedrus]

Anyone like to do a meaningful T\A on Beach? BPT is in a longterm downtrend. You can see from the chart that it is now worth less than half what it was 4 years ago. It is of course possible to make money trading such a stock, but as a "buy and hold" candidate, it has been a disaster. The longer you have held it, the more you have lost. Nevertheless, it is in a short-term uptrend and is currently neither overbought nor oversold.


I doubt Beach is T\A able. Not at all! Just because BPT is in a downtrend doesn't mean that TA is inapplicable or useless! In fact, it is easy to find indicators that enable you to profitably trade falling stocks such as this. Let's apply the most commonly used oscillator (Relative Strength Index) using its default period of 14 days. As you can see from the chart, this has signalled a total of 5 trades over the last 4 years, 3 winning and 2 losing, giving an overall gain of 71%. I admit that this is nothing spectacular, but a gain of 71% beats the hell out of the 52% loss worn by those that held BPT over this period. Just 5 trades in 4 years is not a lot and it is easy to see that the RSI default period of 14 days is too long for this stock. If we use a shorter period of, say, 9 days, the results are even better, giving 8 wins and 2 losses for a gain of over 105%. It is not good practice, though, to act on the signals of any single indicator and the use of other indicators in conjunction with the RSI gives a more robust system with greater gains and more consistent results.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/BPT421.gif


My favourite stock based on fundamentals is Beach. Do you still value BPT at $4.33 Tricha? It would appear that the market values it at a lot less than that. This is one of the problems with FA, of course. Even in the unlikely event that you are right, unless the market agrees with you, such a "valuation" means nothing.


TA is a load of bollocks You are entitled to your opinion, Tricha, and if you choose not to use TA at all, that is your loss. The above example shows that TA can make you money even on a losing stock such as BPT, but of course we both know that a single example of a single indicator on a single stock hardly constitutes proof of TA's efficacy. For that you would need to go to much larger more comprehensive studies, such as this one :-

http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9871/1/MPRA_paper_9871.pdf

The maths involved is beyond the comprehension of most of us, but the conclusion is clear enough. TA works.

[tricha]

[QUOTE=Phaedrus;301805]Do you still value BPT at $4.33 Tricha? It would appear that the market values it at a lot less than that. This is one of the problems with FA, of course. Even in the unlikely event that you are right, unless the market agrees with you, such a "valuation" means nothing.

On holiday and will reply in full when back, Valuation was around$2.30 and with P2 downgrade, slight reduction.

No value placed on Coal Shale Gas.

Valuation means everything, I can bounce in and out and sleep on this undervalued stock, knowing full WELL that when the market catches on, I will remain at the " Beach"

[Rabbi]

Any following this one. Chart & story looking good.

disc hold

Beach seem to be first off the block into Shale Oil and Gas and apparently they have huge acreage in the Cooper Basin. If this isn't enough they have just teamed up with Sundance Energy in the USA to drill over there as well. Probably, this activity has the market more than a little interested.

[shasta]

Beach seem to be first off the block into Shale Oil and Gas and apparently they have huge acreage in the Cooper Basin. If this isn't enough they have just teamed up with Sundance Energy in the USA to drill over there as well. Probably, this activity has the market more than a little interested.

Given there existing relationship, if this shale gas is gunna take off, you'd think Santos would be eyeing up Beach on the cheap

[foodee]

Beach seem to be first off the block into Shale Oil and Gas and apparently they have huge acreage in the Cooper Basin. If this isn't enough they have just teamed up with Sundance Energy in the USA to drill over there as well. Probably, this activity has the market more than a little interested.

Have re-enter a wee while ago at 72c.
Story is still good and chart reassuring.
Interesting times ahead.

Cheers

[macduffy]

If this isn't enough they have just teamed up with Sundance Energy in the USA to drill over there as well

It's certainly not enough for BPT who spread their interests outside Australia pretty wide.

Egypt, Tanzania, Albania, Spain, New Zealand, now USA.

Have I missed any?

[Pipeline]

Beach seem to be first off the block into Shale Oil and Gas and apparently they have huge acreage in the Cooper Basin. If this isn't enough they have just teamed up with Sundance Energy in the USA to drill over there as well. Probably, this activity has the market more than a little interested.

Not that it is a race on this, but I think you will find that AWE is well ahead of BPT in the Shale Gas arena in Australia.

They have drilled their first well, cut 3 cores and are planning for the next phase.

AWE is doing the work and BPT is talking about it.

Further, look at gas prices as a guide to the economics of these Shale Gas plays. WA gas prices are double the prevailing Cooper Basin prices, are closer to market and infrastructure and are in a market which is not flooded with CSM now and into the future.

Look west young man and you will see the real Shale gas play in Australia.

Cheers

Pipe.

PS I do not own BPT, never have. I have a large holding in AWE.

[macduffy]

AWE is doing the work and BPT is talking about it.



Yes!

BPT are very good on the investor relations front!

I hold both AWE and BPT with many more in the former than the latter these days.

And by the way, BPT have just issued another 7 million odd shares o/a the interim dividend. That's to go with the one billion and eighty-one million already on issue!

[tricha]

Yes!

BPT are very good on the investor relations front!

I hold both AWE and BPT with many more in the former than the latter these days.

And by the way, BPT have just issued another 7 million odd shares o/a the interim dividend. That's to go with the one billion and eighty-one million already on issue!

My next review will show AWE's value falling ( just like PPP and NZO) spending heaps ( how much did Hoki cost them ), Tui in severe decline.

BPT roughly staying the same.

But in saying that if Tui holes come good all sweat, if not they are screwed.

Beach might have a billion shares but it's value worth billions and more to come.

And I hold a few AWE and lots of Beach.

[tricha]

My next review will show AWE's value falling ( just like PPP and NZO) spending heaps ( how much did Hoki cost them ), Tui in severe decline.

BPT roughly staying the same.

But in saying that if Tui holes come good all sweat, if not they are screwed.

Beach might have a billion shares but it's value worth billions and more to come.

And I hold a few AWE and lots of Beach.

Reading between the lines, Beach should report a good profit this quarter.


BP profits double on oil price rises


http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45148000/jpg/_45148680_bp226g.jpg BP has benefitted from the rising cost of oil

Profits at oil giant BP have more than doubled from a year ago on the back of rising oil prices. Replacement cost profit for January to March was $5.6bn (£3.6bn), compared with $2.4bn for the first quarter of 2009 - a 135% rise.
The profit figure is also up from the $3.45bn profit made in the last three months of 2009.
BP has benefited from rising global oil prices, which averaged $76 a barrel in the first three months of 2010.
That compares with an average of $41 a barrel a year ago.
Although demand for oil has remained relatively weak, the price of oil has been boosted by optimism over the recovery in the global economy, and speculation by traders.
BP said oil production in the past year had remained broadly flat, and production in 2010 as a whole was expected to be slightly lower than in 2009.
The company also gave an update on the oil spill currently being tackled in BP's Gulf of Mexico oil fields.
It said that improvements in the weather had allowed it to accelerate its clean-up programme.
"This, combined with the light, thin oil we are dealing with has further increased our confidence that we can tackle this spill offshore," said BP chief executive Tony Hayward.

[macduffy]

Reading between the lines, Beach should report a good profit this quarter.


BPT don't report actual quarterly profits but revenue for the quarter to March, 2010, announced today, was down 24%.

[tricha]

BPT don't report actual quarterly profits but revenue for the quarter to March, 2010, announced today, was down 24%.

Hmm bottom line up though .

Cash reserves stood at $140 million at the end of the quarter and they paid a dividend. Also lack of production due to rain, so oil still in the ground, great.

In all still a great result, with many avenues being chased.

[shasta]

Hmm bottom line up though .

Cash reserves stood at $140 million at the end of the quarter and they paid a dividend. Also lack of production due to rain, so oil still in the ground, great.

In all still a great result, with many avenues being chased.

Perhaps too many avenues is part of there problem, & the reason the market constantly overlooks them.

I still like what BPT has to offer, but it is very fragmented & could do with concentrating on just a couple of key projects

Disc: Nil held

[ELYOB]

The drop in production due to rain is hurting the share price by about 5-7c according to my source . But , it is the big picture with the BOT which is the real game . Looks like July is the awaited game ??

[macduffy]

[QUOTE]

Well, you've got[B] my interest. Any action on the Beach would be more than welcome!

Some details, please?

[ELYOB]

The real game is the shorting , and BPT move into shale gas . Detail is in the market place . If you believe in the game ,you may well profit . A non believer would best find another play thing

[macduffy]

There's certainly plenty of opportunity to short such a liquid stock. With nearly 1.1 billion shares on issue there shouldn't be any problem in covering!

But recent stats don't bear this out. For example, only 17% of Wednesday's turnover was shorts.

[macduffy]

More changing of the deck chairs at the Beach.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100507/pdf/31q7008p2krbr1.pdf

[tricha]

There's certainly plenty of opportunity to short such a liquid stock. With nearly 1.1 billion shares on issue there shouldn't be any problem in covering!

But recent stats don't bear this out. For example, only 17% of Wednesday's turnover was shorts.

Hmm shorters would have been burned today and will continue to, as the story unfolds and it is truely a great story, Expanding the Cooper Basin Presentation by Neil Gibbins (http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=178057)

[macduffy]

Yes, it was a big day across the board yesterday and today should be even better!

But not good enough to restore any value to the June 2010 options, unfortunately.

[Phaedrus]

Hmm... shorters would have been burned today and will continue to, as the story unfolds and it is truely a great story I doubt that many shorters would have been burned, Tricha. Go back and look at this (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4657-BEACH-PETROLEUM-BPT&p=301805#post301805) chart and you will see that most anyone shorting BPT would have covered way back in February and they would currently be flat or long.

Here is a chart update. Keep in mind that this chart uses the RSI default value of 14 days. As previously discussed, this is obviously too long and a shorter period of, say, 9 days is much more profitable. (I am using RSI default values here to avoid any possible charge of using hindsight to find the most profitable parameters.)

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/BPT511.gif

All entries and exits are at the Closing price on the day of the signal and brokerage has been deducted at 0.12% per trade. The Profit/Loss percentages shown are calculated over the 4 year period covered by the chart. Note that both short and long trades use the same signals - in other words, those trading BPT both ways would cover their short and also go long at every green arrow. At the red arrows, they would sell their long position and go short.

You can see that shorting downtrending stocks like BPT is much more profitable than going long and trading only the secondary uptrends. Either way knocks the socks off buying and holding! Trading both ways gives spectacular results, much better than simply adding the long and short gains, because profits are compounded.

To keep the chart simple, I have only shown one indicator here. Use of other indicators in conjunction with the RSI gives a more robust system with far greater gains and more consistent results.

[tricha]

P.S Before u reply Phaedrus and say, Beach is worth only what the market values it at, I sleep at night knowing one day the market will awake, a bit like what Warren Buffet does.

[QUOTE=Phaedrus;304261]I doubt that many shorters would have been burned, Tricha. Go back and look at this (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4657-BEACH-PETROLEUM-BPT&p=301805#post301805) chart and you will see that most anyone shorting BPT would have covered way back in February and they would currently be flat or long.

Here is a chart update. Keep in mind that this chart uses the RSI default value of 14 days. As previously discussed, this is obviously too long and a shorter period of, say, 9 days is much more profitable. (I am using RSI default values here to avoid any possible charge of using hindsight to find the most profitable parameters.)

[QUOTE]

WELL Phaedrus, thats where we differ and always will.

I'll stick to the fundamentals, which I apply to mid cap oilers.

Beach comes out a winner by a country mile on the very basics. Cash, no debt, meaningful production, 2p reserves and a lot more.

P2 reserves 66 million barrels, allow $40 a barrel profit = $2,640,000,000

1,030,000,000 shares dived by the oil value = $2.56 a share = 13 cents a share cash = $2.69 cents a share value.

Unfortunately this latest report does not have the new 2P data which I think is slightly less.
But what is this valued at, nothing on my simple calculation - 2P Reserves & Contingent Resources: 359 MMboe


http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=178057


Reserves & resources snapshot: 30 June 2009
5A solid and enviable base from which to grow,plusa substantial portfolio of emerging opportunities
2P Reserves:
66 MMboe
2P Reserves & Contingent
Resources: 359 MMboe
Cooper / Eromanga2PGippsland
Other2P Reserves are a fractionof the total resource base

[h2so4]

To quote tricha above."P2 reserves 66 million barrels, allow $40 a barrel profit = $2,640,000,000"

?????????????????????????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????

.............No Way............P2 reserves= 66 mmboe (not the same $ value as barrels of oil )

I estimate $1.5b valuation for P2 reserves but still well above mc aye. :)

Take off risk for probable reserves and then add cash back, so somewhere around mc is liquidation value. :(

[ELYOB]

There is more to the beach which I wont go into . But lets say my advice from those who are close ! .... just wait till H2 10. They know in the company what's going on .

[macduffy]

It wouldn't be like the Beach Boys to hold back on any good news so I would expect something positive about their shale gas prospects or possibly the hot rocks drilling.

Meanwhile, I'm waiting for the market to show some interest via the SP!

[tricha]

To quote tricha above."P2 reserves 66 million barrels, allow $40 a barrel profit = $2,640,000,000"

?????????????????????????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????

.............No Way............P2 reserves= 66 mmboe (not the same $ value as barrels of oil )

I estimate $1.5b valuation for P2 reserves but still well above mc aye. :)

Take off risk for probable reserves and then add cash back, so somewhere around mc is liquidation value. :(

OK H2S04, how do u value P2 reserves ??????

I set an example, if the profit on the production is $40 a barrel and I have done the same calculation with the likes of AWE, NZO and PPP.

On the same formula Beach comes out on top by a country mile. I might add, soverign risk is very low for most of Beachs assets, so heres a challenge, tell me which other oil companies are cheap ???

[upside_umop]

h2so4, i've already tried to bring this up with tricha...but its a no go area.

it doesnt matter that a lot of their assets are gas and they struggle to give it away at a profit.

i do like the potential hype around 200TCF though, even a larger cap like this has leverage!

[h2so4]

h2so4, i've already tried to bring this up with tricha...but its a no go area.



That's OK, I'm easy.

Interesting to note that US oil companies only quote P1 reserves. That's where Buffett has an advantage.

P1 reserves are proven reserves so I guess 100% is Ok at a discount to profit.

P2 reserves are proven plus probable so I would feel happy with 40% to 50% at a discount to profit.

But when reserves are quoted as mmboe. That is barrels of oil equivilent in volume not $1 value, therefore you have to separate the barrels of oil from the mmbtus of gas.

In BPT's case I think they had 16.6 mmbo and 238 pj's of gas.(It's not the same as 66mmbo) Add the two values together at whatever assumptions you make for oil and gas prices and then add any other discounted assets and cash they may have minus any debt of course and hey presto you get a liquidated valuation. But remember these are P2 reserves.

That's how I do it. Dont do challenges. :)

[shasta]

That's OK, I'm easy.

Interesting to note that US oil companies only quote P1 reserves. That's where Buffett has an advantage.

P1 reserves are proven reserves so I guess 100% is Ok at a discount to profit.

P2 reserves are proven plus probable so I would feel happy with 40% to 50% at a discount to profit.

But when reserves are quoted as mmboe. That is barrels of oil equivilent in volume not $1 value, therefore you have to separate the barrels of oil from the mmbtus of gas.

In BPT's case I think they had 16.6 mmbo and 238 pj's of gas.(It's not the same as 66mmbo) Add the two values together at whatever assumptions you make for oil and gas prices and then add any other discounted assets and cash they may have minus any debt of course and hey presto you get a liquidated valuation. But remember these are P2 reserves.

That's how I do it. Dont do challenges. :)

For comparison purposes 1PJ = ~4mmbo, so u can equate it back

Tricha's valuation really highlights the "potential" BPT has in it's portfolio, but i think when valuing oil companies its better to use there production/flow rates that is more important.

No use having a billion barrel field if you only get 100bopd, you are better off with a 1mmbo field flowing at 10,000 bopd!

[h2so4]

For comparison purposes 1PJ = ~4mmbo, so u can equate it back

Tricha's valuation really highlights the "potential" BPT has in it's portfolio, but i think when valuing oil companies its better to use there production/flow rates that is more important.

No use having a billion barrel field if you only get 100bopd, you are better off with a 1mmbo field flowing at 10,000 bopd!

Not sure 10,000 bopd! Be all gone in 100 days.:ohmy: ............talk about peak oil?????????:)

[tricha]

Beachs sleeper? In the near term, gas price to little, things will change and will Beach be sitting on a gas mine.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shales-a-curse-and-blessing-for-natural-gas-2010-05-28

May 28, 2010, 7:00 a.m. EDT · Recommend (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shales-a-curse-and-blessing-for-natural-gas-2010-05-28#) (6) · Post: http://i.mktw.net/MW5/content/Story/Images/icon-facebook.gif (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shales-a-curse-and-blessing-for-natural-gas-2010-05-28#) http://i.mktw.net/MW5/content/Story/Images/icon-twitter.gif (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shales-a-curse-and-blessing-for-natural-gas-2010-05-28#)
Shale's a curse and blessing for natural gas

By Myra P. Saefong (mpicache@marketwatch.com), MarketWatch

TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- A supply surplus has made natural gas a cheap source of energy, and its growing production from so-called "unconventional" sources such as shale may be destined to keep it that way.
"Natural gas is at a historically cheap price, assuming we're just looking at the last ten years, but one major issue not affecting other energy markets is driving the price lower and lower," said Neal Ryan, managing partner at Ryan Oil & Gas Partners LLC.


http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/MWimages/MW-AE776_shale__MD_20100526152517.jpg


Driven by the nation's growing need for energy and high natural-gas prices in recent years, interest in gas derived from shale, a geologic formation, has increased despite the high costs involved with developing the sources.
"Shale gas provides the largest source of growth in U.S. natural gas supply," according to the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2010 report.

[bermuda]

I think Myra had better google Henry Groppe and get her facts right. Groppe is forecasting $8 within 4 or so months. He uses factual analysis. I will back him. He has been right before.

I see Beach are drilling a shale prospect in Aussie with Adelaide Energy. We will see how that goes. Could be more than useful.

[Serpie]

I was watching CNBC's Fast Money this morning, and they were saying on there that natural gas was underpriced and could be the sleeper hit this summer.
Of course as a BUR holder I hear what I want to hear.

[Huang Chung]

I was watching CNBC's Fast Money this morning, and they were saying on there that natural gas was underpriced and could be the sleeper hit this summer.
Of course as a BUR holder I hear what I want to hear.

Love Fast Money....they have a good pool of panalists (and Melissa Lee is a sweetie).

But the 'Crazy Warehouse Guy', Brian Kelly, gives me the irrates....I DON'T KNOW WHY HE ALWAYS HAS TO SHOUT!

[macduffy]

Things seem rather quiet on the BPT thread these days.

I hope its not a bad sign but BPT have announced that they are moving from weekly drilling reports to monthly in future. More in keeping with industry practice I guess.

Also note a reference to an interest in North Dakota, USA in the latest report. I wasn't aware of that one!

Meanwhile, the SP keeps tracking in its narrow band.

[Dr_Who]

BPT is in a good position to take advantage of any weakness in the resource sector. With all that cash, they can pick and choose. Hope they make the right decisions.

[macduffy]

With the PRRT being extended to all onshore oil, gas and csg companies - assuming that the Govt gets re-elected - has anyone got a view on what this means for BPT?

Market doesn't seem impressed.

[macduffy]

This thread seems to have quietly expired for lack of interest. In the same way that the expiry of BPT options at the end of June appears to have gone unnoticed.

Not surprising, considering that they were to take up new shares at $2.00!

[macduffy]

BPT has really hit the beach today with a new low of 60c!

There must be a profit report due!

[Rabbi]

Yes, I was wondering if there is any specific reason why Beach is getting hammered, or is it just part of the general Oiler malaise. They have been a recommended stock for some time with their cashed up position. Although their profit will be way down due to Cooper basin flooding, this must surely be factored in, so perhaps their Shale gas forays and other international prospects don't cut it.

Thoughts anyone?

[macduffy]

They have been a recommended stock for some time with their cashed up position.

I wasn't aware that anyone was actually recommending PBT?

Certainly, they're holding cash but spread over their one billion plus shares it doesn't amount to much on a per share basis.

Oilies don't ever have trouble spending cash and BPT don't have much to show yet on the exploration front. Shale gas, hot rocks, Tanzania, Albania et al may have great potential but that's not exciting the market at present.

[shasta]

I wasn't aware that anyone was actually recommending PBT?

Certainly, they're holding cash but spread over their one billion plus shares it doesn't amount to much on a per share basis.

Oilies don't ever have trouble spending cash and BPT don't have much to show yet on the exploration front. Shale gas, hot rocks, Tanzania, Albania et al may have great potential but that's not exciting the market at present.

BPT did indicate reduced production for this financial year, so that disappointed the market, & although BPT's sale of Tipton West to AOE resulted in them earning an extra payment, there scatter gun approach to there different projects has always failed to excite the market

What they do with there cash, is what the market is now looking for, & i'm guessing from the past, analysts just don't back the BPT management team to deliver.

A 3:1 share consolidation wouldn't hurt them either

[tricha]

BPT did indicate reduced production for this financial year, so that disappointed the market, & although BPT's sale of Tipton West to AOE resulted in them earning an extra payment, there scatter gun approach to there different projects has always failed to excite the market

What they do with there cash, is what the market is now looking for, & i'm guessing from the past, analysts just don't back the BPT management team to deliver.

A 3:1 share consolidation wouldn't hurt them either

Weird market, we all knew the 40 million was coming and the day it gets here a decent jump, I hope they have learned from past mistakes and will put the 200 million to good use. A share buyback would have been far better than another dividend. A share consolidation using buying back cheap shares with all that cash would be a wise investment.

Reduced production because of flooding, it's great, makes for making hey on a fine day when the price moves up.



TIPTON WEST CONTINGENT PROCEEDS
Beach Energy Limited has received a $43.2 million contingent payment from Arrow Energy in relation to the sale of the Tipton West assets.
This now brings the total funds realised from the Tipton West transaction to $383.3 million. In addition, Beach may receive further contingent payments up to $26.8 million.
Beach's already strong financial position has been further enhanced by this latest payment, taking cash on hand to approximately $200 million.

[macduffy]

So the Tipton proceeds look like being marginally better than the " up to $400m" mentioned in the recent annual report.

BPT's 7% interest in RMS may also be having an effect on the SP although the benefit there is also very minor when spread across BPT's billion or so shares.

[macduffy]

Beach's International Exploration Update today provokes another yawn from the market.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100913/pdf/31sgp3lyp7pcx6.pdf

Not surprising really. Not a lot to report there.

[ELYOB]

The Bank of America has increased its holding in Beach Energy from 55,341,185 shares or 5.07% to 71,431,280 shares or 6.54%. Will keep on playing game until someone forces it to go for it!

[bermuda]

The Bank of America has increased its holding in Beach Energy from 55,341,185 shares or 5.07% to 71,431,280 shares or 6.54%. Will keep on playing game until someone forces it to go for it!

I think the Bank of America likes Shale Gas.

[h2so4]

I think the Bank of America likes Shale Gas.

That's a good thing right?

[bermuda]

That's a good thing right?

It depends on what Beach Encounter. Pardon the pun. Encounter set to drill . The fuse has been lit.

[Bilo]

It depends on what Beach Encounter. Pardon the pun. Encounter set to drill . The fuse has been lit.

Bermuda, BPT and STO have drilled many wells through these formations in the past and should have more than a good idea of shale gas being down there, shouldn't they? Isn't this drilling program more an analysis of the costs of extracting it?

Gas has been so cheap in the Eastern OZ states that shale gas hasn't been any sort of prospect before improvements in extraction technology and international prices that are on their way because of LNG plants.

[ELYOB]

ASX ann this morning sees B of A sell down to 60m shares ...... this is the game , played not for price , but accumulation of medium term holding ..... they will run this anytime soon ..... they will run it hard and dump bigtime , see chart for last time ....??????????????

[macduffy]

ASX ann this morning sees B of A sell down to 60m shares ...... this is the game , played not for price , but accumulation of medium term holding ..... they will run this anytime soon ..... they will run it hard and dump bigtime , see chart for last time ....??????????????

Maybe.

But it gets overlooked sometimes that big instos such as B of A have multiple managers, accounts and clients often with different views on a stock. The result is that holdings fluctuate as various strategies and transactions play out.

Just IMO but I don't place a lot of importance on disclosure of such holdings. Now, if another oily was accumulating, that woulf be a different matter!

;)

[macduffy]

Here's Citi's view on Beach, FWIW.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=181B3649-9B06-C06D-1BF7D1274608E068#Scene_1

[macduffy]

I don't place much store on brokers' recommendations but for what it's worth, UBS has downgraded BPT to "Neutral".

http://www.sharecafe.com.au/fnarena_news.asp?a=AV&ai=18308

[ELYOB]

Santos a ASXann** very significant this morning . This solves the pricing of gas for the giant development of Beach Cooper Basin gas in years to come. That takes the analysts by surprise , and makes their "critical work" out the window . Guess all the brokers will have to rewrite all those stories.

Santos to supply 750PJ of portfolio gas to GLNG. [BPT = 20+% = 152PJ gas]

Beach is now seriously talking behind the scenes as well in the past week.

Smell a change coming over the next couple months .......

** GAS sales to be price linked to the POO!

[macduffy]

** GAS sales to be price linked to the POO!


Yes, but it's a proposal only at this stage. STO will need to get the other major players to agree.

[ELYOB]

EGYPT .....drilling x 4 wells at Abu Sennan to commence Q4 2010 , and another 10 wells to follow . BPT says this looks larger than Western flank Cooper Basin property ....????

[ELYOB]

STO has made their own ASXann .....???? And have just ASXann booked the expanding pipeline for 15 years with the Hastings outfit . I think this is all on , full on ......

[Financially dependant]

STO has made their own ASXann .....???? And have just ASXann booked the expanding pipeline for 15 years with the Hastings outfit . I think this is all on , full on ......

Could be the day Beach finally breaks the down trend....;)

[tricha]

EGYPT .....drilling x 4 wells at Abu Sennan to commence Q4 2010 , and another 10 wells to follow . BPT says this looks larger than Western flank Cooper Basin property ....????

I can not really understand why Origin or Santos or someone else does not take them out, they are so cheap.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=180111

[ELYOB]

BPT qtrly could be interesting on several issues .... they seem to be talking themselves around the place , a sea-change in itself . Euroz are brave , report to clients today..... back to a reserved target $1.09 short term

[macduffy]

Here's someone else who likes the look of BPT at current levels.

"BPT - BEACH PETROLEUM LIMITED
UBS rates BPT as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) - Target $0.83 (was $0.73). Sales revenue for the September quarter was slightly below the June quarter but above the broker's forecast as the group drew down inventory to offset poor operating conditions.
Post the production report the broker has made minor changes to its earnings estimates and lifted its price target. With potential for the company to unlock additional value from its unconventional gas resources in the Cooper Basin the broker upgrades to a Buy rating.

Target price is $0.83 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.175 If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY11 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.05%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.83.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

"
From FN Arena.

[macduffy]

For anyone still on the Beach - Tricha? - here's Citibank's latest.

BPT - BEACH PETROLEUM LIMITED
Citi rates BPT as Hold, Speculative Risk (3) - Citi analysts just returned from a site trip to the Cooper Basin and they picked up a few promising signals at the company's Western Flank operations and the Encounter well. However, the analysts are also quick in adding they remain cautious (hence the Hold rating).
Shale gas has their attention, and the analysts pledge to keep a close eye on further developments, but when it comes to actual investments in the sector, Citi prefers AWE ((AWE)).

Target price is $0.87 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.175 If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Citi forecasts a full year FY11 dividend of 1.40 cents and EPS of 4.80 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.01%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.48.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

[macduffy]

This announcement from Roc Oil, operator of the BMG project in which BPT has a 30% interest, seems to have slipped under the radar.

The gist of it is that the BMG fields have been taken out of production pending investigation of options as to its future.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101108/pdf/31tqsqxj5slfrm.pdf

On second thoughts, it may explain the continued lack of interest in BPT and its and sluggish SP.

[Huang Chung]

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01123075

I have no idea why they can say 'take over'....

[macduffy]

Yes, it's hardly a "merger" when Impress shareholders are to be paid out in cash!

Perhaps it's to make them feel better about it?

[OutToLunch]

I wonder if there's more than meets the eye here, reading comments from various punters so far. VPE have 10% of ITC which would block a takeover if VPE didn't agree to it, whereas a "merger", as far as I gather, only requires 75% support. The comments about "uninamous acceptance in the absence of a better offer, or the independent valuation report coming out saying ITC is worth more", might be Eddie's way of saying "ITC is on the market, now you guys (potential suitors) can fight it out". Kind of like throwing out a slice of bread and watching the gulls come in to squabble over it.

I doubt that this merger will go ahead without some interesting twists and turns along the way. A bidding war would be a fantastic outcome for ITC holders.

[macduffy]

It's the "Scheme of arrangement" mechanism here that requires the 75% approval. I doubt whether use of the terms "takeover" or "merger" affect that.

Yes, it will be interesting to see if a bidding war erupts. BPT have had recent experience in low-bidding and missing out on their target but one assumes that, as a big player in the area they have a good idea of what ITC is worth.

[tricha]

[QUOTE=macduffy;325933]For anyone still on the Beach - Tricha? - here's Citibank's latest.

BPT - BEACH PETROLEUM LIMITED
Citi rates BPT as Hold, Speculative Risk (3) - Citi analysts just returned from a site trip to the Cooper Basin and they picked up a few promising signals at the company's Western Flank operations and the Encounter well. However, the analysts are also quick in adding they remain cautious (hence the Hold rating).
Shale gas has their attention, and the analysts pledge to keep a close eye on further developments, but when it comes to actual investments in the sector, Citi prefers AWE ((AWE)).

Just shows how much difference a day can make, I prefer Beach over AWE any day, after all those dusters and their cash burn.
The mighty Beach will come back strongerly one day, securing the Cooper Basin and so much else happening.

Sounds like this Shale Gas could be worth a billion or two.

Yes a great day to take some profit and sell a few, they might be cheaper tomorrow and I will be buying them back.

BEACH GREATLY ENCOURAGED BY INCREASED THICKNESS OF TARGET SECTION IN NAPPAMERRI TROUGH SHALE GAS DRILLING

[ELYOB]

I am looking forwards to Feb2011. Lots due to happen , but its boring atm . SP could heat up then .....

[tricha]

It's the "Scheme of arrangement" mechanism here that requires the 75% approval. I doubt whether use of the terms "takeover" or "merger" affect that.

Yes, it will be interesting to see if a bidding war erupts. BPT have had recent experience in low-bidding and missing out on their target but one assumes that, as a big player in the area they have a good idea of what ITC is worth.

Does not matter that much macduffy, you need to look at the big picture.

The big picture is big, why no one stole them at the low 60's is beyond me. Anyway I hold heaps and will continue to do so, unless the story changes.

4:21 pmBPT Update on Egypt and Tanzania (http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=181098)4:04 pmLetter to Impress Shareholders (http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=181097)



83.5
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/green_round_small.gif 4 5%
6:50 pm

[Phaedrus]

You need to look at the big picture......But Tricha, it's actually the "big picture" that looks so lousy!
As a long-term investment BPT has been an absolute dog.
I remember when you were buying BPT at $1.30 - $1.45 Tricha, and when you valued it at $4.33! I know you later revised this to $2.37, but I see that UBS now value BPT at 83 cents and wonder what your current valuation is.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/BPT1217.gif

[tricha]

But Tricha, it's actually the "big picture" that looks so lousy!
As a long-term investment BPT has been an absolute dog.
I remember when you were buying BPT at $1.30 - $1.45 Tricha, and when you valued it at $4.33! I know you later revised this to $2.37, but I see that UBS now value BPT at 83 cents and wonder what your current valuation is.



Phaedrus what position is the moon tonight :confused:

My last valuation I did was, I thought $2.76 and with their Coal Shale Gas exposure, at a guessimate add $1.00 -$2.00 more.
My highest price paid was < .92
By the way how are your picks going in the share comp.:cursing:, was it last or 2nd to last :confused:

[upside_umop]

But Tricha, it's actually the "big picture" that looks so lousy!
As a long-term investment BPT has been an absolute dog.
I remember when you were buying BPT at $1.30 - $1.45 Tricha, and when you valued it at $4.33! I know you later revised this to $2.37, but I see that UBS now value BPT at 83 cents and wonder what your current valuation is.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/BPT1217.gif

Careful Phaedrus....you might get banned disputing that valuation!

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

BPT ... will be looking for a strong close to finish the coming week,
as a positive time cycle comes into play, around 23-24122010 ..... :)

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

[tricha]

:)

Hi folks,

BPT ... will be looking for a strong close to finish the coming week,
as a positive time cycle comes into play, around 23-24122010 ..... :)

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

Hi Paul

You got this call right, 2011 should be the year Beach reachs some of it's potential, hopefully they will finish of DLS, fully consolidate the Cooper basin and become the envy of Santos and others.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=181223




MULTI.STAGE FRACCING NOW PLANNED FOR ENCOUNTER-I GAS SATURATED SHALE
INTERVAL
Beach advÍses the following in relation to the Encounter-1 Shale Gas exploration well:

GPOBoxLTS
ADEIAIDE 5A 5æ1

. The well is cased and suspended for future fracture stimulation;

. Target shales interpreted to be fully gas saturated; and

. Roseneath-EpsÍlon-Murteree target section nearly 400m, considerably
prognosed,

[macduffy]

Seems the poor old Beach can't take a trick these days.

Latest news is that the interest in BMG will be written down to a nominal amount in the half year result soon to be announced.

[Rabbi]

Seems the poor old Beach can't take a trick these days.

Latest news is that the interest in BMG will be written down to a nominal amount in the half year result soon to be announced.

Seems to be already factored in to the SP as ROC announced this a while back.

Shale gas is the driver now and a good result at Holdfast should see a significant re-rating of Beach.

[percy]

Seems to be already factored in to the SP as ROC announced this a while back.

Shale gas is the driver now and a good result at Holdfast should see a significant re-rating of Beach.

re-rating appears to be underway.

[tricha]

re-rating appears to be underway.

Yep re-rating was under way, could not resist to buy back in today at opening.

Cheap!

[tricha]

Yep re-rating was under way, could not resist to buy back in today at opening.

Cheap!

I'm back in big time to my favourite oiler, to many reasons not to. They are doing it right and are so undervalued.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=182213

[tricha]

The market is slowly awakening to Beachs potential, it is huge.

Volumes quoted are as at 30 June 2010 and do not incorporate 12 MMboe (Beach share) of additional Cooper Basin 2P reserves announced by Santos Ltd in Feb 2011, nor the impact of the Impress Energy acquisition

2P Reserves
66 MMboe*
2P Reserves & Contingent Resources
363 MMboe*

[Rabbi]

Yes, the potential is there, and perhaps the market is only waiting for some results of this current drilling program. The weather delay at Holdfast is frustrating because good news there would have put a rocket under the SP. Frustrating as it is this shale gas resource is huge and long term could be a company maker.

Beach has a very diversified inventory of prospects all over the world, which some people believe is counter productive although I can't quite see their reasoning. Admittedly, some places are relatively unknown territory like Tanzania and it will take them awhile before they have anything there that is "drill" ready. However , down the track, that sort of acreage could be "elephant" country and generate a great deal on interest. Other stuff, like the Canterbury Basin I don't think will ever be worth while as there is no market for gas there and no infrastructure, relatively deep water, expensive to drill. I'd say they would not renew those permits.

They do now have a big foothold in the Cooper basin, and expect them to target another junior before not too long. ADE must be on the radar, or Cooper energy, or Somerton energy .

[shasta]

I'm back in big time to my favourite oiler, to many reasons not to. They are doing it right and are so undervalued.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=182213

What do you make on fridays ann re the ITC impass over the BPT stake?

[tricha]

What do you make on fridays ann re the ITC impass over the BPT stake?

One of them will be wrong, Shasta, the result is minor to BPT's interests.

Hey Rabbi, do u hold ??? I'm glad someone else has an interest in them. Patience is the key here, the market will awake any time soon.
With oil around $100 a barrel, this quarters profit should be excellent, but it is the big picture which is key.

[macduffy]

I'm back in big time to my favourite oiler, to many reasons not to. They are doing it right and are so undervalued.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=182213

It's the same presentation that they gave in New York on 3 March.

The potential is certainly there but I'm always wary of companies - not of you, tricha - that constantly tell us how undervalued they are!

[tricha]

It's the same presentation that they gave in New York on 3 March.

The potential is certainly there but I'm always wary of companies - not of you, tricha - that constantly tell us how undervalued they are!

The potential is now huge Macduffy, as Rabbi said.

Rabbi - "They do now have a big foothold in the Cooper basin, and expect them to target another junior before not too long. ADE must be on the radar, or Cooper energy, or Somerton energy . "

They have a valuable income and there is not much soverign risk attached to it, unlike others.

They are going to get on board the Gladestone gas line with Santos.

Beach is going through change for the better, Mr Market will catch on one day.

[tricha]

The potential is now huge Macduffy, as Rabbi said.

Rabbi - "They do now have a big foothold in the Cooper basin, and expect them to target another junior before not too long. ADE must be on the radar, or Cooper energy, or Somerton energy . "

They have a valuable income and there is not much soverign risk attached to it, unlike others.

They are going to get on board the Gladestone gas line with Santos.

Beach is going through change for the better, Mr Market will catch on one day.

I still can not believe they have not been taken out by Santos. It is a perfect fit. I guess Santos is busy with their coal seam gas and do not have spare money.


Cooper Basin Western Flank

Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT, “Beach”)

has

obtained excellent results from the first two
wells drilled of its 16 well operated program
in the Western Flank area.
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=182548

[gazprom1]

I still can not believe they have not been taken out by Santos. It is a perfect fit. I guess Santos is busy with their coal seam gas and do not have spare money.


Cooper Basin Western Flank

Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT, “Beach”)

has

obtained excellent results from the first two
wells drilled of its 16 well operated program
in the Western Flank area.
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=182548


Well done on BPT's move Tricha. The rise has been relentless for the past few weeks. My wife had bought some time ago at 82 cents and watched it do nothing and go down for a long time. Do you attribute part or any of the rise to the ADE shale drilling????

Gazprom

[bermuda]

Well done on BPT's move Tricha. The rise has been relentless for the past few weeks. My wife had bought some time ago at 82 cents and watched it do nothing and go down for a long time. Do you attribute part or any of the rise to the ADE shale drilling????

Gazprom
Gazza,
I put the rise down to
1. Beach's clear intentions to become a big Cooper player.
2. Beach's clear intentions to develop their enormous shale potential ( with ADE )
3. The importance of oil production to Australia, especially with a rising oil price and world unrest.

There are several other companys getting stuck into the Cooper. eg Santos, Senex ( just took over STU ), Cooper Energy and more recently INP which has had a recapitilisation resulting in Nick Davies ( ex Arrow ) becoming Chairman and acting CEO. This Cooper is starting to reveal a lot of oil.

Beach are on a growth path in the Cooper. Some close players reckon the next logical tie in will be a Beach Offer for Senex. They will need to sharpen their pencils because Senex have a brilliant growth plan too and have some heavyweight directors.

[gazprom1]

Gazza,
I put the rise down to
1. Beach's clear intentions to become a big Cooper player.
2. Beach's clear intentions to develop their enormous shale potential ( with ADE )
3. The importance of oil production to Australia, especially with a rising oil price and world unrest.

There are several other companys getting stuck into the Cooper. eg Santos, Senex ( just took over STU ), Cooper Energy and more recently INP which has had a recapitilisation resulting in Nick Davies ( ex Arrow ) becoming Chairman and acting CEO. This Cooper is starting to reveal a lot of oil.

Beach are on a growth path in the Cooper. Some close players reckon the next logical tie in will be a Beach Offer for Senex. They will need to sharpen their pencils because Senex have a brilliant growth plan too and have some heavyweight directors.

Thanks Bermuda - much appreciated. I do not currently hold SXY as historically I have been disappointed with progress. It is on my watchlist. Would be interesting of Beach did make an offer for SXY.

Bermuda - I am gutted that I did not get into NWE after the "failed" drill. SP has held up really well and seems exceedingly well supported. I want to be in for the May shale drill but the SP makes me nervous. Any thoughts???

Cheers
Gaz

[tricha]

Well done on BPT's move Tricha. The rise has been relentless for the past few weeks. My wife had bought some time ago at 82 cents and watched it do nothing and go down for a long time. Do you attribute part or any of the rise to the ADE shale drilling????

Gazprom

WELL Gazprom, Beach have a hell of a lot going for it, but I feel Bank of America are playing with it, they buy and sell in bulk, causing these major fluctuations in share price.

But http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=182568 reading through this u get an idea of their huge resourse.
And it is huge and still very cheap, good on your wife for hanging in there, may she be WELL rewarded.

Oh, and just for an insight, dial up Ken Fisher on what he thinks :t_up: will be the next energy after oil


BPTBeach Energy Limited FPOhttp://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/australia.gif http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/BPT/2y/line/30/0/

[ELYOB]

BoA got the bat out in Jan 10 , and really sold this down , then returned to accumulate without fear. Nothing much better about BPT to stop them doing the same again . I expect this at anytime .

[bermuda]

BoA got the bat out in Jan 10 , and really sold this down , then returned to accumulate without fear. Nothing much better about BPT to stop them doing the same again . I expect this at anytime .

Have a look at the photo of the core from Holdfast re their ASX announcement today. That is what BOA were waiting for. ADE/BPT, AWE/NWE and SXY ( See STU shale holdings ) are going to more than rock. They are going to split it to smithereens.

[Rabbi]

Beach has moved up nicely over the last couple of weeks but it usually gets sold down after a run up. I'm hoping this time SP will consolidate on the Shale gas potential.

When the Shale gets fracced and flow tested a positive result might be a company maker, a rocket to Blue sky country.
Assuming the Shale reservoir is similar to that in the USA they shouldn't encounter too many technical difficulties. I understand shale is not water saturated like CSG so only water should be the fraccing fluid. Still a bit of uncertainty I suppose but this gives plenty of upside for those not yet on board.

Disc: Hold BPT SXY

[tricha]

Beach has moved up nicely over the last couple of weeks but it usually gets sold down after a run up. I'm hoping this time SP will consolidate on the Shale gas potential.

When the Shale gets fracced and flow tested a positive result might be a company maker, a rocket to Blue sky country.
Assuming the Shale reservoir is similar to that in the USA they shouldn't encounter too many technical difficulties. I understand shale is not water saturated like CSG so only water should be the fraccing fluid. Still a bit of uncertainty I suppose but this gives plenty of upside for those not yet on board.

Disc: Hold BPT SXY

WELL the latest broker report paints a pretty picture for Beach. We have had a pull back, but as always,
Beach will do what Beach does, trying to second guess this stock is nigh impossible.

7-Apr-2011 Macquarie Equities Research (javascript:openPopUpFull('http://www.beachenergy.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=2515&EID=71152932&PageName=Macquarie Equities Research','Macquarie Equities Research'))


Beach Energy
Chasing big opportunities
Event



BPT held an Investor Day in Sydney. Management focused on BPT’s growth

opportunities and also provided an encouraging update on shale gas
exploration in the Cooper Basin.
Impact



Still life in the Cooper Basin: BPT continues to focus on its core assets in

the Cooper Basin, where management sees a number of opportunities
spanning the risk/reward spectrum. In the Western Flank, BPT is expected to
drill 26 wells targeting ~6mmbbls of reserves. Given existing infrastructure,
these wells could be brought onto production quickly. In the SACB JV, BPT is
looking to decrease well spacing to improve gas recoverability. With the 2
shale gas exploration wells now complete in the Nappamerri Trough, initial
logging and core analysis suggests encouraging results. Following core
sample analysis due back from the US in the coming months and a fracture
stimulation program planned in early May, we expect further news flow here.



Large oil opportunities in Tanzania and Egypt: BPT highlighted progress in

Tanzania and Egypt, where management is chasing oil potential between 20-
200+mmbbls. Despite the early stage of operations, the prospectivity of this
acreage is apparently sparking industry interest. Tullow recently confirmed a
sale of 66% of its Lake Albert acreage to CNOOC and Total for U$2.9bn. BPT
believes its acreage in Tanzania is an extension of the same play type. In
Egypt, while approvals and drilling have been delayed, there are plans for up
to 10 wells. Three of the blocks purchased by Apache from BP in November
2010 for U$650m are adjacent to Abu Sennan.



Near-term reserves upgrades and longer-term resource potential:

Following STO’s ~60mmboe reserves upgrade at the SACB JV and Senex’s
upgrade to Growler and Snatcher and assuming that the current drilling
program in the Western flank enjoys historical success rates, BPT could add
18.2mmbbls to 2P reserves, implying a 260% reserves placement ratio. BPT
also expects to make an initial resource booking for Cooper Basin shale gas
at the upcoming reserves review in August 2011.
Earnings and target price revision



NAV rises by 4% to A$1.41/sh: We have de-risked the GLNG supply

agreement given the project has now been sanctioned and incorporated the
6mmbbls of reserves additions targeted in the Western Flank.
Price catalyst



12-month price target: A$1.35 based on a DCF methodology.




Catalyst: Further results from core analysis and the fracture stimulation

program in early May could further de-risk this large resource play.
Action and recommendation



We maintain an Outperform rating and raise our price target to

A$1.35/sh:


BPT should enjoy some operating leverage to the rising oil prices

that we expect in the near term, given the high fixed cost operating
environment in the Cooper Basin. Separately, tangible progress appears to
have been made regarding Cooper Basin shale gas.

[tricha]

More oil and the market yawns, yeah we are in a down turn, but do not hold your breath.;)


CONTINUED SUCCESS ON BEACH’S WESTERN FLANK WITH HANSON-1

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=183240

[tricha]

It's happening and results out in a couple of weeks, the maths are pretty simple really, 1 + 2 = "lifes a Beach"

1 http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=183392

2 http://www.oilandgasinvestor.com/pdf/ShaleGas.pdf

[Rabbi]

[QUOTE=tricha;348419]It's happening and results out in a couple of weeks, the maths are pretty simple really, 1 + 2 = "lifes a Beach"

Beach permits are supposed to be pretty similar geology to what is is in the States.
Presuming they frac and flow successfully then a lot of value has to be factored into the SP yet.

If the SP splutters on good news a big player might be watching and waiting in the wings, as this is a huge resource. And with the CSG players floundering around dewatering and months behind with their pilot programmes after the rain, Beach could be sitting pretty.:)

[Oiler]

[QUOTE]

Beach permits are supposed to be pretty similar geology to what is is in the States.
Presuming they frac and flow successfully then a lot of value has to be factored into the SP yet.

If the SP splutters on good news a big player might be watching and waiting in the wings, as this is a huge resource. And with the CSG players floundering around dewatering and months behind with their pilot programmes after the rain, Beach could be sitting pretty.:)

Rabbi, BPT does have a huge upside with there shale permits. The "shale" companies need to do a PR effort and differentiate themselves from the CSG companies. The Gasland propaganda film didn't help either. Shale gas is way too deep to interfere with the water aquifers and besides they case with steel pipe and pressure test for leaks, something that CSG don't need to do.

Happy to hold this one.

[tricha]

[QUOTE=Rabbi;348489]

Rabbi, BPT does have a huge upside with there shale permits. The "shale" companies need to do a PR effort and differentiate themselves from the CSG companies. The Gasland propaganda film didn't help either. Shale gas is way too deep to interfere with the water aquifers and besides they case with steel pipe and pressure test for leaks, something that CSG don't need to do.

Happy to hold this one.

Thanks for the tip on this one Oiler, upside is huge and if u folks care to read Beachs involvement into Shale and why they are a forerunner in this type of developement in Australia and

Unconventional gas plays
require a certain edge…

U will see why Beach has the edge.
You will also need to read the article below to get the full implications of Shale Gas

http://www.oilandgasinvestor.com/pdf/ShaleGas.pdf

Once you have read both you might get an understanding of why Beach is dirt cheap.

You just might get a clue that ADE has even more leverage to the shale gas, hence I added $20,000 of ADE to my portfolo last week and more discounted Beach.

I did not pick the ADE clue, Oiler gave it to me and it's a gem, ADE has the potential to go up 1000%, if ...
Yes there are a few if's and ADE is a gambling stock, where as Beach is a mid tier cashed up producer.

Happy hunting folks;)
Unconventionas

[Oiler]

[QUOTE=Oiler;348526]

Thanks for the tip on this one Oiler, upside is huge and if u folks care to read Beachs involvement into Shale and why they are a forerunner in this type of developement in Australia and

Unconventional gas plays
require a certain edge…

U will see why Beach has the edge.
You will also need to read the article below to get the full implications of Shale Gas

http://www.oilandgasinvestor.com/pdf/ShaleGas.pdf

Once you have read both you might get an understanding of why Beach is dirt cheap.

You just might get a clue that ADE has even more leverage to the shale gas, hence I added $20,000 of ADE to my portfolo last week and more discounted Beach.

I did not pick the ADE clue, Oiler gave it to me and it's a gem, ADE has the potential to go up 1000%, if ...
Yes there are a few if's and ADE is a gambling stock, where as Beach is a mid tier cashed up producer.

Happy hunting folks;)
Unconventionas


Good to have you aboard there Tricha.

There are a couple of other interesting plays that I am looking at in OZ particularly up i the NT. I will post details when I get back to NZ.

[JBmurc]

ASX jnr 224mktcap SSN is into US liquids rich shales with some major J.V-royalities with the likes of Halliburton ,Chesapeake two companies worth Muti billions that are both at the spearhead of Oil&Gas exploration tech


-Holding truckloads of SSNO

[Oiler]

ASX jnr 224mktcap SSN is into US liquids rich shales with some major J.V-royalities with the likes of Halliburton ,Chesapeake two companies worth Muti billions that are both at the spearhead of Oil&Gas exploration tech


-Holding truckloads of SSNO

JB this is another company, I think has huge potential. Still not quite sure why Halliburton bought in but time will tell I guess. Are they going to give SSN a cheaper deal on the fraccing??? I doubt it but hey good to see a major buying into a minnow like SSN. I have buy orders in for Monday

[macduffy]

Beach has ceased to be a Substantial Shareholder of RMS.

It would have been a profitable exercise but I often wondered what an energy company was doing as a major shareholder in a goldie!

[tricha]

This is another company that gets smashed around by a investment company.

In beachs case, it is Bank of America,

28th Feb, Change in substantial holding (http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=182062)


The list goes on and today there was a major sell off, I suspect Bank of America is unloading, this is an opportune time to buy.
They owned 70 odd million, so there could be a little way to go. Beach should do a buy back and forego a dividend. U never know it might get back to 80 cents, that will be an excellent buy.

[macduffy]

I don't put a lot of store on substantial shareholder movements by the big investing instos. These companies operate through a number of subsidiaries with different investment managers with different views; for multiple clients with varying investment requirements. Add in the fact that subsidiary nominee companies' holdings have to be included in the "substantial shareholder" calculations and it's no wonder that these jump around a lot.

It's a different matter of course when a competitor or private equity player takes, or loses, interest in a company!

[macduffy]

It's "hold your breath" time!

BPT in a trading halt pending release of a report on initial flow results from the Holdfast 1 shale gas well.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110711/pdf/01196516.pdf

[Rabbi]

Trading halt ?

They might be flaring gas at a great rate but need more time to confirm to the market.
If that is the case it will be the end of a 2 year hiatus in the doldrums for the Beach.
Whats it all worth if commercial?

BILLIONS!:D

[Oiler]

Trading halt ?

They might be flaring gas at a great rate but need more time to confirm to the market.
If that is the case it will be the end of a 2 year hiatus in the doldrums for the Beach.
Whats it all worth if commercial?

BILLIONS!:D

You betcha Rabbi .... BPT/ADE time has come finally. All good things come to those that wait and god have I been waiting.

[shasta]

Trading halt ?

They might be flaring gas at a great rate but need more time to confirm to the market.
If that is the case it will be the end of a 2 year hiatus in the doldrums for the Beach.
Whats it all worth if commercial?

BILLIONS!:D

Not much, unless there is infrastructure to extract/process it & able to secure an off take agreement

[macduffy]

BPT successfully flows gas from its Holdfast 1 shale well!

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110712/pdf/41zqj9728wwxfn.pdf

[tricha]

Trading halt ?

They might be flaring gas at a great rate but need more time to confirm to the market.
If that is the case it will be the end of a 2 year hiatus in the doldrums for the Beach.
Whats it all worth if commercial?

BILLIONS!:D

Yes billions and Shasta needs to do some homework.

[tricha]

Not much, unless there is infrastructure to extract/process it & able to secure an off take agreement

U need to do some homework Shasta, there is and Beach are WELL ahead of the pack.


•Discussions ongoing between SACB JV and Santos for the supply of 750 PJ to Santos’ GLNG Project*:
–Beach’s share of supply would be ~ 152 PJ
–15 year contract - proposed to commence in 2014
–Oil-linked gas pricing

•Highlights strategic importance of Cooper Basin asset base
•Potentially creates new export supply opportunities

[macduffy]

Another view on the economics around Cooper Basin shale gas.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=268AD4F9-029B-E3DE-2198E8C0C218A7EB

[tricha]

U need to do some homework Shasta, there is and Beach are WELL ahead of the pack.



•Discussions ongoing between SACB JV and Santos for the supply of 750 PJ to Santos’ GLNG Project*:

–Beach’s share of supply would be ~ 152 PJ
–15 year contract - proposed to commence in 2014
–Oil-linked gas pricing

•Highlights strategic importance of Cooper Basin asset base
•Potentially creates new export supply opportunities

If u read between the lines, Beach and ADE have a superior field compared to the US ones.

Someone will most likely couch up a few billion for this field, sending ADE and Beach .............


http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADE&E=ASX&N=183743
We note the happy coincident timing of the announcement of this settlement with the takeover of US shale gas company Petrohawk at a price equivalent to US$15,000 per acre."

[macduffy]

From today's Australian.

"Beach poised to capitalise on shale gas."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/beach-energy-poised-to-capitalise-on-shale-gas-fields/story-fn91v9q3-1226099341923

[Rabbi]

"Beach poised to capitalise on shale gas."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/beach-energy-poised-to-capitalise-on-shale-gas-fields/story-fn91v9q3-1226099341923[/QUOTE]

It's early days yet and what might hold Beach back for a while is the question mark over the economics of shale gas at present prices. But Beach must have done their homework and crunched the numbers as to viability of producing Shale gas and furthermore they must have found a home for it.
I'll give Beach management their dues -they are putting their money where there mouth is in terms of the Shale gas story and they mean business. Some of their other projects are way behind schedule, particularly Egypt, and Tanzania is pie in the sky stuff, elephants in the sand.
As soon as it's confirmed Beach has a LNG market for all it's Shale gas at the right price it's game over. Unless they get an offer too good to refuse.

[tricha]

"Beach poised to capitalise on shale gas."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/beach-energy-poised-to-capitalise-on-shale-gas-fields/story-fn91v9q3-1226099341923

It's early days yet and what might hold Beach back for a while is the question mark over the economics of shale gas at present prices. But Beach must have done their homework and crunched the numbers as to viability of producing Shale gas and furthermore they must have found a home for it.
I'll give Beach management their dues -they are putting their money where there mouth is in terms of the Shale gas story and they mean business. Some of their other projects are way behind schedule, particularly Egypt, and Tanzania is pie in the sky stuff, elephants in the sand.
As soon as it's confirmed Beach has a LNG market for all it's Shale gas at the right price it's game over. Unless they get an offer too good to refuse.[/QUOTE]

Beach is a steal Rabbi, their conventional oil and gas is worth double this price at least, their shale gas could be worth billions.

But if u really want a shale play check out ADE ( Oilers hot tip and I have crunched the numbers, he's 100% correct)
On shale gas, a potential multi bagger, a gambling stock worth doing your homework.;)

[tricha]

Taken off Hotcopper and they are right on the money.

With all the coal seam gas problems, BPT would be a very handy aquistion for conoco's Gladstone LNG supply.
BPT will supply one train of Santos' LNG project, but there will still be heaps left over.
Now is the time for BPT to be taken over because they are by far too cheap.
BPT look like they will be $1.20 within a month, but should be $3 to $4.
They were $1.60 odd about 4 years ago & their assets & holdings are worth 3 to 4 times more than then.
In the current stock market climate, BPT should be a shining light in the next 6 months for anyone serious about making money.

[macduffy]

But not everyone's bullish about Beach. Here's Citi's view.

"BPT - BEACH PETROLEUM LIMITED
Citi rates BPT as Sell, Speculative Risk (5) - Citi analysts saw a strong production result, but it's the valuation they have major problems with. Hence why the rating remains Sell. Higher Cooper Oil production and lower exploration costs have pushed up future earnings estimates.
The stockbroker remains skeptical as to whether Cooper shale gas will ever become economically viable. In addition, the analysts remain optimistic about East Coast gas prices, but question whether Beach is the best way to play the theme. The stockbroker prefers AWE ((AWE)) and Santos ((STO)).

Target price is $0.88 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: minus $0.185 (current price is over target). If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Citi forecasts a full year FY11 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 2.70 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.69%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.44.

Market Sentiment: 0.0 "

[tricha]

But not everyone's bullish about Beach. Here's Citi's view.

"BPT - BEACH PETROLEUM LIMITED
Citi rates BPT as Sell, Speculative Risk (5) - Citi analysts saw a strong production result, but it's the valuation they have major problems with. Hence why the rating remains Sell. Higher Cooper Oil production and lower exploration costs have pushed up future earnings estimates.
The stockbroker remains skeptical as to whether Cooper shale gas will ever become economically viable. In addition, the analysts remain optimistic about East Coast gas prices, but question whether Beach is the best way to play the theme. The stockbroker prefers AWE ((AWE)) and Santos ((STO)).

Target price is $0.88 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: minus $0.185 (current price is over target). If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Citi forecasts a full year FY11 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 2.70 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.69%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.44.

Market Sentiment: 0.0 "

Cit view, hmm, interesting .

I'lll stick with this one off HC, knowing it is totally logical, considering BHP and BG's move in this arena.

A most important development today - BG signing on to shale gas. Looking at the hole and not the donut - highly paid brokers and journalist (fed by brokers) are still talking about oz relatively low gas price, lack of nearby infrastructure and support and basically higher cost of extracting shale gas - witness the iress article.

BG in this deal today is buying insurance. Coal seam gas has real environmental concerns - particularly those relating to the unknown impact of massive amount of water being pumped out. If you were one of the three groups building an LNG plant at Gladstone a very smart move is to ensure that you are not going to be 100% dependent on coal seam gas supply to your plant.

The other two groups - Origin/Conoco and Santos/Petronas &co - have access to partners' CB conventional gas and perhaps also shale gas from less optimum areas. This is not ideal - conventional gas from CB is in decline and in the very short term producers may squeeze a bit more out through closer spaced drilling. Bear in mind that BPT has 20-23% of real estate in the SA and Queensland CBJVs - any move by Origin and Santos to increase massively shale gas drilling activity they will have to take care of BPT's share of the high costs involved - there are ways and means around it including of course the "takeover" route.

And here we have BPT - seriously undervalued - about to move to pilot stage and confirm a very significant shale gas resource - in many multiples of TCFs. Those other two groups and including BG will want to put their hands on it - even if it's just for insurance at this stage. Big companies have to think that way. BG's move today has already confirmed to me what the industry has in mind - and they would want to grab hold of BPT's shale gas before someone else does!

And on the NSE Canning Basin deal - Conoco/Karoon has the Poseidon/Kronos discovery in the Browse Basin of about 5 TCFs - enough for just 1 LNG train. A planned drilling program over about 2 years will look to firm up gas feed for at least 2 trains. The LNG plant will be at James Price Point - 200/400+ from the NSE Goldwyer project. NSE/Conoco shale gas will be feeding the LNG plant
+ possibly Telfer - that would be the long term plan.

IMHO the broking analysts have missed the big picture altogether - looking at the hole not the donut!
THINK ABOUT IT - in the space of just 2 weeks since Holfast 1 we have the Conoco/NSE and now BG/DLS deals.
If that is not HUGE I don't know what is.

BPT share price has a long way to go yet. I am not going to speculate on whether it is worth $2 or $3 or even $5 a share. There will be lots of news flow and farm-ins/acquisition activities yet to come.
Keep that in perspective.
The shale gas train is just leaving the station ........... All on board! Enjoy the ride!

As for the low domestic gas price - any offers for a $4/Gj bet in 2013? This is a story for another time.

Good Luck all ....... GB

[Rabbi]

Beach SP up today on a down day which is very unusual
so somethings in the wind. Maybe Trading Halt coming up confirming....

HUGE RESOURCE numbers for Holdfast! :t_up:

[tricha]

Beach SP up today on a down day which is very unusual
so somethings in the wind. Maybe Trading Halt coming up confirming....

HUGE RESOURCE numbers for Holdfast! :t_up:


U R on to it Rabbi, We have the numbers, now we wait for a joint venture partner, I'm picking BHP :confused:

INITIAL 2 TCF RESOURCE BOOKING FOLLOWING SUCCESSFUL SHALE GAS EVALUATION


http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=184033

[macduffy]

Yes, good news.

But note that it is a contingent resource.

Defined as: "These quantities of petroleum estimated, as at a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations by application of development projects, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies."

[Rabbi]

Yes, still early days , but with international interest in Australian Shale gas resources, it's only a matter of time before Beach gets to play hardball with one of the big boys.
Going by the volume,it looked like there was plenty of interest today from institutions wanting a piece of the Beach. Appears to me that most of the buying is into the sell offs, but Beach looking good on what should have been a bad day.

[tricha]

Beach SP up today on a down day which is very unusual
so somethings in the wind. Maybe Trading Halt coming up confirming....

HUGE RESOURCE numbers for Holdfast! :t_up:

Beach is going great guns Rabbi, not many oilers paying dividends at the moment.
And there is so much action happening, something will give.:t_up:



9:55 am
Beach Energy Ltd FY11 Full Year Results (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=184321)

[Rabbi]

Have to agree tricha
Apart from the oil hedging, foreign exchange losses and the Basker Gummy writedown the Annual report was outstanding. You have to remember production was severely impacted by flooding in the Cooper basin but they still had an underlying profit of 41 million. Beach is sitting on cash of 173 million and is fully funded to go forward with its shale gas horizontal pilot production testing next year. To that end they have secured a state of the art high tech rig used to drill horizontal shale wells in the states.
The market is just starting to wake up to the potential of Beach's unconventional gas permits. Anyone looking at a Shale gas explorer with potentially huge upside shouldn't look past the Beach.

[Rabbi]

The market is just starting to wake up to the potential of Beach's unconventional gas permits. Anyone looking at a Shale gas explorer with potentially huge upside shouldn't look past the Beach.

Looks like the train has left the station with Beach up strongly the last few days. Catalysts for the SP rise include:

1. Increased Western Flank Cooper Basin production
2. Successful Egyptian exploration.
3. Cooper basin Shale Gas

Might be some resistance and consolidation at $1.20 before the next breakout.

[tricha]

[QUOTE=Rabbi;356384]Looks like the train has left the station with Beach up strongly the last few days. Catalysts for the SP rise include:

1. Increased Western Flank Cooper Basin production
2. Successful Egyptian exploration.
3. Cooper basin Shale Gas

Might be some resistance and consolidation at $1.20 before the next breakout.[/QUOTE

Its great to see and long overdue. How do u like this for a joke, shame on them for getting it so wrong.:t_down:

Recommendation BPT





Valuation: $0.85


23 Aug 11 - Upgrade due to price change.



Research by

Recommendation AWE





Valuation: $3.00


30 Aug 11 - Write-downs and Costs Feature in FY1... (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/F68C796005BCB99741101C9DF1D61AA2/quotesummary/index/asx/awe?tab=6&id=16747)



Research by
Learn more about this research (javascript:void(0))



I'm glad I am on board this train and are of to the Beach.:cool:

The majors are a bit slow, thankfully. So any take over should be $2.00+, WELL short of their worth, I might add.

[Financially dependant]

Beach has been in an up-trend channel for over 6 months and much stronger then ASX in recent times. The SP has just broken out UP above the upper trend line.

1. Ultra high volume but narrow spread tells me the smart money are buying in on bad news, this also sets support for the price.
2. When the world markets are tanking the smart money are buying and share price does not end the day below support line.
3. The share price retested the support on lower volume which indicates supply is drying up and smart money have accumulated enough, the share price moves higher and breaks out of the channel.

All IMHO...

[macduffy]

BPT's shale gas contingent resource. A comment.


http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=154BF244-DFE6-8236-BA8950858FF5ADD0

[tricha]


[QUOTE=Rabbi;356384]Looks like the train has left the station with Beach up strongly the last few days. Catalysts for the SP rise include:

1. Increased Western Flank Cooper Basin production
2. Successful Egyptian exploration.
3. Cooper basin Shale Gas

Might be some resistance and consolidation at $1.20 before the next breakout.[/QUOTE

Its great to see and long overdue. How do u like this for a joke, shame on them for getting it so wrong.:t_down:

Recommendation BPT





Valuation: $0.85



23 Aug 11 - Upgrade due to price change.






Research by

Recommendation AWE





Valuation: $3.00



30 Aug 11 - Write-downs and Costs Feature in FY1... (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/F68C796005BCB99741101C9DF1D61AA2/quotesummary/index/asx/awe?tab=6&id=16747)






Research by
Learn more about this research (http://javascript<strong></strong>:void(0))



I'm glad I am on board this train and are of to the Beach.:cool:

The majors are a bit slow, thankfully. So any take over should be $2.00+, WELL short of their worth, I might add.

A back flip, what a joke analyists are

Latest recommendation report

Valuation:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/Content/Style/Images/Recommendation_Buy.png

Last updated:
16/09/11

To Speculate or Not to Speculate, That is the Question


EPS

[tricha]

We will backflip all right, these analyists are in cloud nine.
Beach is unlocking the Cooper Basin, watch this space.!


EPS
-8.81, that means Beach has lost 88 million in the last year, shame on this mis-information.

[Rabbi]

We will backflip all right, these analyists are in cloud nine.
Beach is unlocking the Cooper Basin, watch this space.!


EPS
-8.81, that means Beach has lost 88 million in the last year, shame on this mis-information.




Beach going great guns as market starting to factor in the value of ADE shale gas and csg permits.
With now over 50% of ADE Beach is in the box seat.
Might find next resistance at $1.30 but they seem to be increasing Oil revenue from the Cooper at a great rate of knots and when they get the new pipelines operational bottom line increase is anyone's guess.
It's likely many ADE shareholders will become happy Beach goers.:cool:

[tricha]

Beach going great guns as market starting to factor in the value of ADE shale gas and csg permits.
With now over 50% of ADE Beach is in the box seat.
Might find next resistance at $1.30 but they seem to be increasing Oil revenue from the Cooper at a great rate of knots and when they get the new pipelines operational bottom line increase is anyone's guess.
It's likely many ADE shareholders will become happy Beach goers.:cool:

I'm glad someone else appreciates Beach Rabbi! I only hope Beach gets to $2.00 a share before someone comes knocking.

Beach have a lot more going for it, so they are likely to fight a takeover and command a much higher price.
As long as world markets do not tank, Beach will soon race past $1.30 a share.
They are unlocking the Copper Basin as you know.

I bet they are peived they never collected DrillSearch in light of their recent discovers in the Cooper Basin.

This is exciting times for us holders.:t_up:

[tricha]

oo
Surely the news of what was a forgone conclusion, does not justify such a jump. On another bad day in the market.

I wonder if someone is circulating or it is the ADE money going into it.??



136.5
4.5 3.4%
1:34 pm

[percy]

Don't know who is buying,but the very strong uptrend continues.

[ELYOB]

The BPT PR machine is working overtime . Brokers that usually get a fee from BPT are pumping the stock with clients to good effect , and we are at a stage where good midcaps are the main plays stage . Got an email from my broker who is in the pump , saying they are targeting $2.00 per share.

Personally, I think the risk of getting burnt here is increasing the higher it goes as there is a big player hidden in a maze of stockbrokers , who has been playing around here for months . When the big exit comes , watch with amazement . The smart players will look back in the charts a few years and see what the last dump did , it was all over before anyone could exit . Just a friendly warning !

[drillfix]

The BPT PR machine is working overtime . Brokers that usually get a fee from BPT are pumping the stock with clients to good effect , and we are at a stage where good midcaps are the main plays stage . Got an email from my broker who is in the pump , saying they are targeting $2.00 per share.

Personally, I think the risk of getting burnt here is increasing the higher it goes as there is a big player hidden in a maze of stockbrokers , who has been playing around here for months . When the big exit comes , watch with amazement . The smart players will look back in the charts a few years and see what the last dump did , it was all over before anyone could exit . Just a friendly warning !


Thanks for sharing there ELYOB, both good advice and info combined.

Cheers~!

[tricha]

The BPT PR machine is working overtime . Brokers that usually get a fee from BPT are pumping the stock with clients to good effect , and we are at a stage where good midcaps are the main plays stage . Got an email from my broker who is in the pump , saying they are targeting $2.00 per share.

Personally, I think the risk of getting burnt here is increasing the higher it goes as there is a big player hidden in a maze of stockbrokers , who has been playing around here for months . When the big exit comes , watch with amazement . The smart players will look back in the charts a few years and see what the last dump did , it was all over before anyone could exit . Just a friendly warning !

Thats one way of looking at ELYOB, I will just make sure I have cash available to buy more if it happens, in the mean time Beach is dirt cheap.

I had ADE worth around $1.00 a share,( thats when life becomes a gas ), in the big picture, that's not to far away.
That is why I bought into ADE, Oiler gave me the good oil, he was right as usual.

What you probably do not reckonise is, ATP855P 1670km2 of shale, Beach own 40%, they of got this of ICON.
Icon own 40%.
It went to court, Beach won.
ICON like DLS, probably got offered big bucks for that share, but it was to late. They had screwed up and signed with Beach.

ADE own 20%, WELL Icon are now screwed.

Beach now own 60%. Beach have full control.

The big picture, look at the USA shale, it's going to happen here.

Unfortunately if Beach does not get to $2.00 soon, I reckon I am going to get screwed again, because Beach is dirt cheap.
Beach is prime take over material, probably by someone into Gladstone. Its a huge story, unfortunately we shareholders, like ADE shareholders, will get a fracton of what Beach is really worth, in a few years down the track.

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=185704

[tricha]

Thats one way of looking at ELYOB, I will just make sure I have cash available to buy more if it happens, in the mean time Beach is dirt cheap.

I had ADE worth around $1.00 a share,( thats when life becomes a gas ), in the big picture, that's not to far away.
That is why I bought into ADE, Oiler gave me the good oil, he was right as usual.

What you probably do not reckonise is, ATP855P 1670km2 of shale, Beach own 40%, they of got this of ICON.
Icon own 40%.
It went to court, Beach won.
ICON like DLS, probably got offered big bucks for that share, but it was to late. They had screwed up and signed with Beach.

ADE own 20%, WELL Icon are now screwed.

Beach now own 60%. Beach have full control.

The big picture, look at the USA shale, it's going to happen here.

Unfortunately if Beach does not get to $2.00 soon, I reckon I am going to get screwed again, because Beach is dirt cheap.
Beach is prime take over material, probably by someone into Gladstone. Its a huge story, unfortunately we shareholders, like ADE shareholders, will get a fracton of what Beach is really worth, in a few years down the track.

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=185704



I've been doing some homework and by all accounts Beach are ahead of the pack. 1 + 2 = how much is Beach worth, billions!

1- http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=184036


Shale Gas- Hydraulic Fracturing

2 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CM8Lh7SAm6A&feature=related

[Rabbi]

Personally, I think the risk of getting burnt here is increasing the higher it goes as there is a big player hidden in a maze of stockbrokers , who has been playing around here for months . When the big exit comes , watch with amazement . The smart players will look back in the charts a few years and see what the last dump did , it was all over before anyone could exit . Just a friendly warning !

I'm pretty sure Matthew Capital partners are still into this one but they haven't traded or shorted for a while. The short selling seems to have stopped so Beach might have some way to go before a correction. Huge prospects in Tanzania are underpinned by increasing revenue from the Cooper Western Flank. SXY have also benefited from increasing Cooper Oil production as have DLS and both have good shale permits as well.
I'd be surprised if Beach drop back to under $1.00 again because even with the unstable situation in Europe they are still chugging away nicely.
My opinion is that the potentially massive shale gas upside is what the market is buying into.:)

[drillfix]

Certainly is looking good, from a technical standpoint.

Dont know how much it will continue to go up by as it may need to take a breather at some stage.


Agree Rabbi about not going below $1.00 as all the EMA's I am looking at are all above this.
In fact, if I were to put retest targets looking at the EMAs as it currently sits, they would be as follows.

60 Min Chart:
13 EMA = $1.35
60 EMA = $1.29
150 EMA = $1.24

Daily Chart:
13 EMA = $1.29
60 EMA = $1.17
150 EMA = $1.07

The above does not mean that price is guaranteed to go there, they are just figures where the certain listed EMA lines are set, which are approximations.

Usually, price will take a breather, go back to the 13ema 1st. Should it require a further breather then the 60ema will be also tested etc etc.

The 60 min chart is great for swing trading and buys are recommended at the 60ema on an up trending stock (IMO).

Here is a chart as follows, which shows the above mentioned EMA's on both 60 min and daily charts, along with marked indictors on the lower daily showing overbought and unsustainable upmove (currently) which supports a breather, IMO.

BPT Intraday and Daily >>> http://www.imgplace.com/viewimg820/7314/20bpt20111121ib.png

Good Luck beach holders :)

disc: not holding

[percy]

[QUOTE=drillfix;361489]Certainly is looking good, from a technical standpoint.

Dont know how much it will continue to go up by as it may need to take a breather at some stage.


Agree Rabbi about not going below $1.00 as all the EMA's I am looking at are all above this.
In fact, if I were to put retest targets looking at the EMAs as it currently sits, they would be as follows.

60 Min Chart:
13 EMA = $1.35
60 EMA = $1.29
150 EMA = $1.24

Daily Chart:
13 EMA = $1.29
60 EMA = $1.17
150 EMA = $1.07

The above does not mean that price is guaranteed to go there, they are just figures where the certain listed EMA lines are set, which are approximations.

Usually, price will take a breather, go back to the 13ema 1st. Should it require a further breather then the 60ema will be also tested etc etc.

The 60 min chart is great for swing trading and buys are recommended at the 60ema on an up trending stock (IMO).

Here is a chart as follows, which shows the above mentioned EMA's on both 60 min and daily charts, along with marked indictors on the lower daily showing overbought and unsustainable upmove (currently) which supports a breather, IMO.

BPT Intraday and Daily >>> http://www.imgplace.com/viewimg820/7314/20bpt20111121ib.png

Good Luck beach holders :)

Looks to me as though you will have to recalibrate those charts as the SP is going over the top.!!!!! lol
Yes am holding.

[drillfix]

Looks to me as though you will have to recalibrate those charts as the SP is going over the top.!!!!! lol
Yes am holding.

Nahh Percy, too much of a chore, when I post, I post such targets for the day although with such strength in BPT I never would have expected those targets to get hit today, but rather, a breather will happen eventually.

So should the price go up or down just need to adjust it a couple of cents as of EOD today.

Tomorrow is another day~!

[percy]

Tomorrow is another day~![/QUOTE]
and today is the day that yesterday we worried about,yet all is well.!!

[drillfix]

LOL Percy, your a serial Quote breaker~!

We must train you to not delete the [QUOTE] box from the beginning of the posts otherwise it looks like you have typed out all the post :)

[tricha]

Tomorrow is another day~!
and today is the day that yesterday we worried about,yet all is well.!![/QUOTE]

Tomorrows another day and TA has got nothing to do with Beach. It's meaningless.

We are due for a correction, but we do not know the forces at work here, wether it is short selling or takeover manouvers. TA will not tell you whats coming, all it will do is show u a picture in the rearview mirror.

FA will on the other hand, will tell you Beach is cheap. Just like my other stocks, ADE, DLS, NGF, TAP and WSA.

[drillfix]

TA has got nothing to do with Beach. It's meaningless.



How can you say that and then say
We are due for a correction, all in the same post.

a bit hypocritical dont ya think.

Of course TA will have something to do with every stock, anybody whom denies that, is denying their own existence.

Also, there are many cheap stocks on the market Tricha, not just yours, but they are everywhere. Just ask everybody else in the market. LOL

[percy]

LOL Percy, your a serial Quote breaker~!

We must train you to not delete the [QUOTE] box from the beginning of the posts otherwise it looks like you have typed out all the post :)

Sorry drillfix,get things wrong more often than I get them right.!!!!
Back to Beach.This uptrend has been going on for a year now,so any correction,etc will not neccessarily mean a change,or that the trend is not continueing.? Question rather than statement.

[tricha]

How can you say that and then say all in the same post.

a bit hypocritical dont ya think.

Of course TA will have something to do with every stock, anybody whom denies that, is denying their own existence.

Also, there are many cheap stocks on the market Tricha, not just yours, but they are everywhere. Just ask everybody else in the market. LOL

TA is for the cloud watchers, in reality it is just a rearvision mirror, that shows u a picture of the past.
The cloud can take on many different meanings.

U R right Drillfix, there are many very good stocks out there, not just my ones.

Today the clouds will be raining tears!

[tricha]

The fundamentals - Beach has it, who wants it :confused:

Gassing up on an east coast opportunity Nathan BellNovember 21, 2011 - 1:20PM

The age of cheap gas is over. For years, eastern Australia enjoyed among the lowest gas prices in the developed world. At around $3 a gigajoule (gj), gas costs just a third of what it does in West Australia and far lower than the price Europeans or Asians pay.
Customers have benefited while producers cursed their geographic fate. That, though, is all about to change.
The raft of new LNG projects scheduled to begin in a few years has sparked speculation that east coast gas price are set to rise.
Advertisement: Story continues below <iframe id="dcAd-1-3" src="http://ad-apac.doubleclick.net/adi/onl.age.bus/bus;cat=bus;ctype=article;pos=3;sz=300x250;tile=3; ord=6.847656E7?" width='300' height='250' scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0"> < /iframe>
Indeed, contract price negotiations have already started to factor in higher prices. Some commentators have suggested that a significant shift is underway, that east coast gas prices are set to mimic the movements of west coast prices.
Whilst gas prices will rise, those increases will be tempered by the unique nature of coal seam gas extraction. The extraordinary price increases in gas in WA aren't likely to be replicated along the east coast but even modest increases will benefit two of our favoured stocks in the sector, Origin Energy and Santos.
Gas producers therefore have a choice: supply domestic users or the export industry. Naturally, they follow the money. Domestic gas prices have therefore risen to compete with demand from the LNG industry.
The LNG price tracks movements in the oil price, not the absolute level. A rough rule of thumb is that oil parity prices deliver a gas price about 15 per cent of the oil price.
LNG producers have to account for transport and liquefaction costs, which are significant but, even so, oil-linked pricing is far more attractive than selling into the domestic market.
With massive new LNG capacity planned on Australia's east coast, many expect east coast gas prices to undergo a similar transformation. Yet there is one important difference: Whilst WA produces conventional gas, on the east cost it's coal seam gas (CSG). Different economics apply and that will determine supply.
The crucial difference is in the ramp up stage; CSG producers must continue to produce gas during ramp up whereas conventional gas producers do not. More supply will be available more often on CSG projects and that should help contain prices.
Even so, today's prices of $3/gj surely cannot last. We estimate that prices between $6-$7/gj will be sustained, well short of WA prices but almost twice today's rate.
Large gas users are complaining that even now, years from LNG production, long term contracts are difficult to source, which is why there's a growing expectation that prices on the east coast will rise.
If such expectations are being priced into gas contracts, then they're being almost completely ignored in equity valuations. This is the opportunity.
Domestic gas prices at over $6/gj would be a significant boon for Australia's largest gas producer, Santos. It may even result in Santos's large gas assets being viewed much like Woodside's are today: ripe with strategic possibility.
Santos currently produces about 50 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) per year. At the moment, the vast majority of that production is priced below $4/gj.
Thanks to the magic of operating leverage, a 50 per cent lift in domestic prices will increase profits by an even higher portion. Santos currently trades on a peaky price to earnings ratio of over 20, but profits should increase rapidly as new projects – notably Gladstone LNG and PNG LNG – start production from 2014.
The old low margin gas business is being replaced by higher margin output. The PER may sound high, but is easy to justify considering higher margins and growing output. Additional profits from escalating gas prices is a bonus.
Suspicion over coal seam gas is keeping the share prices of potential producers subdued, including Australia's largest CSG producer, Origin Energy.
Origin currently makes most of its profits selling electricity rather than gas, an activity that should continue profitably even as raw gas prices rise because Origin's massive pool of cheap production and generation assets provide insulation from higher wholesale energy prices.
In addition, Origin holds a 42.5 per cent stake in the largest LNG project on the east coast; Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG).
Origin and US-listed joint venture partner ConocoPhillips are several years behind their Queensland peers and, to date, only a single customer has been locked into sales.
But don't let the sloth of the timetable disguise its potential; APLNG is truly monstrous with enough reserves to ultimately rival the North West Shelf or Gorgon in terms of output.
This is a better quality business than the metrics suggest. Over time, aided by higher gas prices, it will start performing like one.
Gas markets are set to change considerably in the years ahead. Now is the time to act to take advantage of that fact.
This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 282288).
Nathan Bell is research director of Intelligent Investor. BusinessDay readers can enjoy a free trial offer. For more Intelligent Investor articles click here.




Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/gassing-up-on-an-east-coast-opportunity-20111121-1nq7n.html#ixzz1eNoydtoh

[drillfix]

TA is for the cloud watchers, in reality it is just a rearvision mirror, that shows u a picture of the past.


Yeah right~!

I guess I forgot, you know everything so I guess I better not try to convince you otherwise.

Good luck in life with your short sighted views~!

[drillfix]

The fundamentals - Beach has it, who wants it :confused:


No Thanks, the world changes everyday,

Fundamentals unfortunately are for suckers whom cant read charts...LOL

Best of both worlds in investing of course will use both, but dont take my word for it~!

[tricha]

No Thanks, the world changes everyday,

Fundamentals unfortunately are for suckers whom cant read charts...LOL

Best of both worlds in investing of course will use both, but dont take my word for it~!

Best of luck to your cloud watching Drillfix, I have and always stick to the fundamentals.

Beach is dirt cheap based on them. http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=185812, they have so much good stuff happening.

Gold - Norton Gold, I challenge you to find a better gold producer based on them, that is cheap. If you can I will sell NGF and buy them.

Nickel - Western Areas, find a better nickel miner based on production\costs, if you can I will gladly sell WSA and buy them.

I bet you can not.;)

[drillfix]

No thanks, more useless links with blah blah blah written.

Why buy NGF now when you will be able to buy them at 19c and then 18c, perhaps 17c maybe even?

But as this is the BPT thread, out of respect for BPT posters and readers alike I wont discuss other stocks here apart from the line above.

Good luck.

[percy]

drillfix and tricha. I repect both of you.Your views are important to me.
Meanwhile BPT is at $1.41 and I am getting very excited,which means it is due for a correction.The trend is certainly my friend here.

[percy]

That strategicly placed solidified rain cloud has certainly given Beach the hurry up.Up to 144.5 today.

[Crypto Crude]

Beach too boring for me...
I go surfing...
:cool:
.^sc

[macduffy]

Beach too boring for me...
I go surfing...
:cool:
.^sc

Boring?

Something like a 50% gain in 6 months is boring?

I'm not too proud to admit that I got this one wrong and sold most of my Beach before the "recovery". Luckily, my habit of keeping a few for interest's sake is some consolation.

[Financially dependant]

Boring?

Something like a 50% gain in 6 months is boring?

I'm not too proud to admit that I got this one wrong and sold most of my Beach before the "recovery". Luckily, my habit of keeping a few for interest's sake is some consolation.

I have been bored waiting for a good entry, hoping it will retest 1.345 again...

3711

[bermuda]

Boring?

Something like a 50% gain in 6 months is boring?

I'm not too proud to admit that I got this one wrong and sold most of my Beach before the "recovery". Luckily, my habit of keeping a few for interest's sake is some consolation.

Hi Mac,
I am a bit biased against Beach management after the ADE fiasco and their previous DLS aborted attempt. But I do have to say that BPT has the potential to be one of South Australia's best growth stocks over the next few years..Their tested and certified shale gas is truly phenomenal. Add on the Cooper oil which is mapped finally on 3D and you have a growth company. ( i.e. one that attracts MAJORS )

But overall I prefer Senex ( SXY ) which has some very special qualities.

Re Shrewdy's comment,...Shrewdy and I saw Oiler in his last days and we all dreamed of a ten bagger. NWE . Let's hope SXY, BPT, and NWE all get there together. But if I had to bet on it, NWE get's there first. It has got a few environmental problems but logic can't refuse it.

[macduffy]

I was more than a bit biased against BPT management too, which probably had its roots in an expensive rights issue a few years ago!

But must give credit where it's due and BPT's progressive selling down of their majority holding in the BMG field and their decision to sell their csm interests have proven to be well timed. I'm still not a fan of diverse punts such as Albania, Eqypt and Tanzania - too much management distraction there for my liking - but happy to eat more humble pie in due course.

Here's a recent interview with MD Reg Nelson on Cooper shale gas prospects.

http://gastoday.com.au/news/a_new_shift_in_the_global_energy_scene_australian_ shale/064568/

[Financially dependant]

BPT trucking through a lot of resistance...I bought a few on the way (a little early..impatient again) if it holds above then is looking good for more gains...hoping to add as in time..

3765

[Rabbi]

BPT trucking through a lot of resistance...I bought a few on the way (a little early..impatient again) if it holds above then is looking good for more gains...hoping to add as in time..




FD $1.50 sure to be tested next week as rumour and speculation circulate about possible interest by a major buying into Beach shale gas permits. It may be that they will wait until Beach fracs and horizontally drills the test wells in April. The risk for a major is the premium they will have to pay post successful testing as a bidding war could ensue.

Beach production from Western flank Cooper Oil on success
with Drillseach and Senex, should underpin recent SP rise. You can expect the bots to play around with the short term SP- but notwithstanding- Beach uptrend looks unstopable.:t_up:

[macduffy]

From today's SMH:

Beach cutting its royalties to Exxon, but is it the start of something bigger?



Ian McIlwraith
January 20, 2012 Read later
.







INVESTORS in Beach Energy can look forward to a likely upgrade of its earnings outlook by early next month after the group yesterday finalised a multimillion-dollar reduction of its Cooper Basin royalty payments to energy giant ExxonMobil.

The real question, though, is whether the burying of the hatchet between Beach and Exxon is the start of something bigger - say a partnership on the Adelaide-based group's estimated 60 trillion cubic feet of shale gas in the Cooper Basin?

Beach has been paying millions under a confidential royalty agreement to Exxon's local offshoot, Esso Australia Resources, since it acquired control of Delhi Petroleum and its interests in the Cooper and Eromanga basins in 2006. The Delhi assets form the crux of Beach's worth.

Advertisement: Story continues below

Even when Beach acquired the assets, Exxon was already making a claim on Delhi that it had been miscalculating the royalties due, and underpaying the US group.

Beach's royalty payment disclosures in its annual accounts in 2007, the first year with Delhi on the balance sheet, showed a jump in outlays from $7.7 million to $70.8 million. Of course, that includes payments to state governments and others.

In last year's annual report, Beach showed that it was still paying $65.8 million in the 2011 financial year, up from $54.2 million in 2010.

If even half that money was the cash going to Exxon, then it appears that Beach has conserved somewhere north of $20 million a year, based on yesterday's statement that said Beach is paying perhaps as little as $8 million a year for the next five years.

So why would Exxon give up that money? Theoretically, the US group has elected to take a short-term haircut for a larger reward in the long term.

Beach appears to have successfully argued to Exxon that it could continue to receive a large slice of royalties from assets that must eventually dwindle in output - meaning that eventually Exxon would be receiving nothing - or forgo some income now to give Beach the requisite cash to invest in further development and production.

Its arrangements in the Cooper Basin with partner Santos allow ''sole-risk'' developments, as was done on the Western Flank region that yielded the tastefully named Growler and Snatcher fields.

Exxon has been guaranteed a minimum payment of $40 million over the first five years, and Beach has already paid $8 million. The complaint about the undercalculation of royalties has also been settled.

The money saved will clearly flow through to Beach's bottom line. That, along with better prices, will form the foundation of managing director Reg Nelson and his team recalculating earnings when December-quarter production figures are finalised soon.

Conspiracy theorists might also want to consider that ExxonMobil, like most energy producers around the globe at the moment, is keen on shale gas.

Beach owns 100 per cent of PEL 218 after taking out minority partner Adelaide Energy, which owned 10 per cent. Recent reports were that Beach has been running a data room for potential global partners in the deposit. Maybe Exxon worked out on which side its bread might be buttered with the potential of much greater returns for longer than the Delhi royalty.

[Financially dependant]

After a bit of consolidation it was another good day at the beach today...still holding on the right side of the trade...

3805

[Rabbi]

Beach has been in a long term uptrend for sometime.

From the quarterly production figures are slightly lower than the previous quarter, but this is set to increase,with new wells coming into production, as well as the commissioning of the new pipeline later in the year.

Beach has a history of frustrating long term investors. The SP went as high as $1.60 in 2008 before the GFC, and in the same year they had a capital raising at $1.43 to buy into Egypt, along with some $2.00 options which were never going to be in the money. Subsequently, the SP was hammered and went as low as 62 cents, hovering around in the 70,s for quite some time then trading in a range between 75 cents and $1 before commencing the present uptrend in Dec 2010.

Alot of investors don't like the Beach overseas forays, believing they should concentrate on the Cooper. Admittedly, Egypt has been disappointing but they might be about to turn the corner here going on some of the latest appraisal drilling results.
The Shale gas or Basin centered gas is making the difference and looks to have the market excited. Investors are likely to be taking a position before Beach tests for horizontal flow rates,as if successful, this would put Beach SP at and unquantifiable premium should a major want in.. There is a bit of hype getting factored in so I hope they don't disappoint.

[Financially dependant]

Beach keeps marching on so still happy to hold...

3824

[upside_umop]

Not sure if this has been posted already, or if you have seen it, but thought you might appreciate it FD.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-18/beach-deal-seen-with-australia-shale-2-of-u-s-value-real-m-a.html

[gazprom1]

BPT has been on a stellar run. I sold out $1.46 a few weeks ago before the latest uptick. Swapped into NWE. Still a fan of Beach and hope it goes higher for holders.

Gaz

[Financially dependant]

Not sure if this has been posted already, or if you have seen it, but thought you might appreciate it FD.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-18/beach-deal-seen-with-australia-shale-2-of-u-s-value-real-m-a.html

Thanks UU, I missed that one...it speaks volumes and shale is still very hot atm..

[Financially dependant]

BPT has been on a stellar run. I sold out $1.46 a few weeks ago before the latest uptick. Swapped into NWE. Still a fan of Beach and hope it goes higher for holders.

Gaz

Still moving higher gaz but not quite the speed of some of the others...the next resistance level imo is 1.73, a lot of supply keeps turning up at that level...Still happy to hold while it carries on up the trend line..

3854

[bermuda]

Still moving higher gaz but not quite the speed of some of the others...the next resistance level imo is 1.73, a lot of supply keeps turning up at that level...Still happy to hold while it carries on up the trend line..

3854
Phaedrus always said never sell while on an uptrend.

See you all sharetraders at the Riccarton Club 6pm this Saturday.

[gazprom1]

Hi FD/ Bermuda,

FD - BPT still moving up nicely...good for holders. Yep, other stocks have been on a stellar run. Hope it continues its upward trend for you and other holders.

Bermuda - As stated in the above post I swapped into NWE at 3.1 from BPT so on a comparative analysis BPT has done +18.8% since selling and NWE +45% since buying (which was NOT in an uptrend at the time). I sold out of NSE a couple of days back at 44.5 cents and bought CCU at 74....NSE is in a clear uptrend but it is not as attractive as CCU for me. Active portfolio management can be beneficial. I am buyer of some stocks in downtrends which was also against what Phaedrus said....doesn't mean its right or wrong, just different. I think one of the last posts by Phaedrus to me was that I was destined to fail or words to that effect.....buying through last year was highly profitable but risky. If one has adequate capital behind them and if one has a strategy when buying and selling stocks, it can be highly rewarding.

Like you have said before, we cannot own them all.

DOW is down as I write but losses are being trimmed.

Gaz

[Financially dependant]

the next resistance level imo is 1.73, a lot of supply keeps turning up at that level...

happy to be wrong about resistance level...blasted through 1.73 with volume in last hour of trade...EOD 1.755

[Financially dependant]

happy to be wrong about resistance level...blasted through 1.73 with volume in last hour of trade...EOD 1.755

2 days in a row last hour buying spree....all bodes well...

[bermuda]

2 days in a row last hour buying spree....all bodes well...
FD,
You have yourself a winner. They are exposed to Africa.
Africa took off this week.

[Financially dependant]

FD,
You have yourself a winner. They are exposed to Africa.
Africa took off this week.

Well all good things come to an end, I sold out today as the uptrend was broken and took my profits...the money has now gone on NSE...

[soulman]

Well done FD. Nice switch too.

[macduffy]

I've also sold the last of my BPT. Did much better than I expected a year or so ago but it seems the reality of converting that shale gas contingent resource to production is now exercising the market. Yesterday's Capital Guidance chart appears to show a roughly $200m shortfall between cash on hand at 31 December and expected expenditure for the remainder of the FY so it seems that some sort of capital raising will be required. A very exciting trip this last twelve months, though!

[Financially dependant]

I've also sold the last of my BPT. Did much better than I expected a year or so ago but it seems the reality of converting that shale gas contingent resource to production is now exercising the market. Yesterday's Capital Guidance chart appears to show a roughly $200m shortfall between cash on hand at 31 December and expected expenditure for the remainder of the FY so it seems that some sort of capital raising will be required. A very exciting trip this last twelve months, though!

I have no doubt there will be someone in the wings to farm into the shale gas production (they keep going on about esso for starters) and with that news I expect another re-rating....but a profit is a profit


soulman

Well done FD. Nice switch too.

Thanks soulman, I think BPT will be worth looking at again soon but the WA shale is too tempting atm...

[Rabbi]

I've also sold the last of my BPT. Did much better than I expected a year or so ago but it seems the reality of converting that shale gas contingent resource to production is now exercising the market. Yesterday's Capital Guidance chart appears to show a roughly $200m shortfall between cash on hand at 31 December and expected expenditure for the remainder of the FY so it seems that some sort of capital raising will be required. A very exciting trip this last twelve months, though!

Beach in trading halt at the moment.
Obviously couldn't get a farminee on the right terms so Beach going alone to develop their shale prospects.
a couple of days for the market to digest this one.

345 million Capital raising.
One for eight non- renounceable at $1.40 to raise $195 million.
$150 million in convertible notes.

[macduffy]

From FN Arena.

"BPT - BEACH PETROLEUM LIMITED
UBS rates BPT as Neutral (3) - Beach is raising $345m to fund Cooper Basin capex over the next few years and top up working capital. Taking the raising and capex guidance into account sees the broker reduce forecast earnings per share by 3-12% in FY12-14. The broker sees participation as an early vote of confidence in the long term development of Copper shale, which the broker notes is already being afforded a 60% premium within the stock price valuation. The broker remains on Neutral. Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: minus $0.075 (current price is over target). If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY12 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.27%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.69.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 47.7%.Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.Current consensus price target is $ 1.40, suggesting downside of - 11.1%(ex-dividends).Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
"

[tricha]

I've also sold the last of my BPT. Did much better than I expected a year or so ago but it seems the reality of converting that shale gas contingent resource to production is now exercising the market. Yesterday's Capital Guidance chart appears to show a roughly $200m shortfall between cash on hand at 31 December and expected expenditure for the remainder of the FY so it seems that some sort of capital raising will be required. A very exciting trip this last twelve months, though!

WELL done macduffy, you called it spot on! The capital raising, great take.

[weasel]

Hi all, I am a small shareholder of BPT and was wondering how/if I can take part in the capital raising? I live in Europe and trade with ASB Securities. Thanks in advance for guidance.

[macduffy]

BPT are due to issue the Entitlement Offer booklet on 4 April so important questions such as - will they restrict it to residents of Aust and NZ? - which is often the case, particularly with these "accelerated" issues are yet to be answered. In these cases companies often sell the rights to the issue to institutions and pay the net proceeds to shareholders concerned. But I'm getting ahead of the game here!

A lot may depend on whether you hold the shares directly in your own name or in an ASB nominee company. If the latter, I suggest you contact ASB.

There is an interim timetable on BPT's website - accessible also through ASX announcements. At this stage, the offer is due to open on 4 April and close on 20 April.

[weasel]

Thanks macduffy, much appreciated. The shares are in my name. I'll check the announcements during April.

[macduffy]

FWIW, from FN Arena:

"BPT - BEACH PETROLEUM LIMITED
Citi rates BPT as Sell, High Risk (5) - Target $1.34 (was $1.31). Citi has adjusted its model for Beach to account for the view there is major volume upside potential for Cooper conventional gas, while there is also scope for some upside from shale gas in the Basin.
Minor changes to forecasts mean an increase in price target. Citi retains a Sell rating on the stock given the expectation Copper gas capex will remain high for some time.

Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $1.33 Difference: $0.01 If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Citi forecasts a full year FY12 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 7.90 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.35%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.84.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of 47.3%.Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.Current consensus price target is $ 1.40, suggesting upside of 5.0%(ex-dividends).Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources "

Interestingly, Citigroup Global Markets Pty Ltd is one of the Joint Lead Managers and Underwriters to the issue. I don't imagine that sub-underwriters are too thrilled to read the above!

[POSSUM THE CAT]

As the offer of 1 for 8 shares is priced at $1.40 are they going to get any takers

[Rabbi]

As the offer of 1 for 8 shares is priced at $1.40 are they going to get any takers

It's underwritten by the lead brokers anyway, however it's unfortunate that it will not entice many retail investors when they are trading at a discount. If you want more Beach you might as well buy them on market. Of course the institutions will load up big time, and then we will get more manipulation and shorting from them than ever. :eek2:

I have never held a stock that is so open to SP manipulation than the Beach; one of the ten most shorted stocks on the ASX. I won't be taking up the offer but if
they go down to the low $1.30's I might pick up some more on market.

Beach have huge potential shale gas upside!

[airedale]

BPT put out a notice today that they have a resource which has the potential to change the East OZ and international gas markets. And such is the daily gloom that the SP is still marked down by 13 cents. But after the close 1 million changed hands at 3 cents more.

Discl: not holding

[bermuda]

BPT put out a notice today that they have a resource which has the potential to change the East OZ and international gas markets. And such is the daily gloom that the SP is still marked down by 13 cents. But after the close 1 million changed hands at 3 cents more.

Discl: not holding
It is simply amazing how BPT and SXY and others have been marked down. I can sort of understand it because if we have a huge recession where oil goes down to say $75 /bbl then it makes sense. I think many are picking a repeat of what happened back in 2009. Let's hope the USA can pull through their debt load and start leading the world again. They have such a huge debt. Bush and Greenspan have a lot to answer for. And yet they are so thick they would deny all.

[trackers]

^ The Americans are probably glad everyone's so worried about the tiny economy of Greece, noones looking at their debt... Meanwhile they're cranking out cheap energy to get them back on top?

[bermuda]

BPT put out a notice today that they have a resource which has the potential to change the East OZ and international gas markets. And such is the daily gloom that the SP is still marked down by 13 cents. But after the close 1 million changed hands at 3 cents more.

Discl: not holding
I see BPT are now saying today that whilst they did have a big fish on the hook they are now going to have to prove up more resource to land it.
With the price of oil tanking the Aussie shale stocks have taken a hammering. Particularly BPT, DLS and SXY. They will be back. Let's hope the USA can get themselves back on track.

Trackers,
What about a golf game at Shirley with FD? I can get you on for $30.

[trackers]

Hi B, That sounds great!! I might have to stick to my irons though so I don't embarrass myself, just getting back into it after quite a few years break :)

P.S I got a very small parcel of TTE today

[Rabbi]

I'm thinking this is a great stock to trade if you can manage to anticipate when the big boys are going to manipulate it.

It hasn't been a great day at the Beach lately but fundamentals haven't changed .I look forward to their June 30 result with great anticipation. Beach cash flow is going to be a significant improvement on previous year. This is still a great company; its just a shame that the big shareholders (banks) are total ....holes.

[macduffy]

BPT a great company?

Maybe. But any stock with over one and a quarter billion shares on issue - let alone one involved in the volatile business of oil and gas exploration/production - is going to be a prime candidate for trading/manipulation. It goes with the territory.

[macduffy]

Encouraging news on the Halifax 1 unconventional gas drill.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20121018/pdf/429gwrrdfjrkb6.pdf

Meanwhile, the SP continues to make healthy gains.

[Rabbi]

Someone could be quietly accumulating?

[macduffy]

Someone could be quietly accumulating?

Perhaps. I'm more inclined to think that it's the frequent encouraging drilling news and the potential to be the first Aust producer of unconventional gas that's driving the firming SP.

.

[NZSilver]

Bought in at 1.27 a month or so ago, steady uptrend. Good production + lots of drilling so could be some good news (but no luck won't break the company like most asx oil stocks) also plenty of cash!

[Rabbi]

The word on the street is that the Chinese are running their ruler over Cooper Basin Shale gas explorers, with particular interest in Beach. Beach took off today and tested $1.50

Buying the assets of companies such as Beach, Drillsearch, Senex, and Icon, is just going to get more expensive as time goes on.

[macduffy]

BPT SP down 8.6% today.

May be reaction to the terrorist activity in Algeria - BPT has interests in Egypt.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/18/us-sahara-crisis-security-idUSBRE90H12S20130118

[macduffy]

And/or it may be that the market found the drilling report on the Moonta 1 well less than exciting?

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130118/pdf/42chgwlf6j25wl.pdf

[macduffy]

Yes, it seems that the market considered the gas flow from Moonta 1 to be a bit of a disappointment.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/shale-gas-flow-report-disappoints-investors-20130121-2d332.html

[macduffy]

Anyone else following Beach?

Here's the quarterly report to 31 December. Production down a bit but revenue forecast met, largely due to higher prices and a higher proportion of oil v gas.

On the exploration/testing front, early shale gas flows not brilliant.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130129/pdf/42cn0fdrndzc2s.pdf

[Rabbi]

Anyone else following Beach?

Here's the quarterly report to 31 December. Production down a bit but revenue forecast met, largely due to higher prices and a higher proportion of oil v gas.

On the exploration/testing front, early shale gas flows not brilliant.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130129/pdf/42cn0fdrndzc2s.pdf

Several tip sheets and brokers rate Beach a buy, based more on their shale gas campaign than oil revenue. Oil revenue is certainly well and truly factored into the price, and I would have expected this to increase in the last quarter, however I was disappointed.

Beach are doing a horizontal frac on one of their shale wells, can't remember which , but it could be Halifax. They need a decent flow rate to get the market excited, as last vertical frac, the gas flowed at a piddling 2mmmbe a day, which didn't interest lots of punters who dumped and headed for the hills.

I will say though, that if this takes off, you don't want to be late to the party!

[macduffy]

From the Aussie press:

Oil and gas explorer Beach Energy has signalled its projects in central Australia’s Cooper Basin could eventually generate enough shale gas to supply Sydney, as well as export.

Beach Energy managing director Reg Nelson, told ABC TV’s Inside Business program on Sunday that between 10 and 20 per cent of the 300 to 600 trillion cubic feet of gas available its Moomba development could be extracted, generating enough to supply not only Sydney but also New Zealand and other export markets.

Meanwhile, the SP has been moving upwards, closing at $1.49 on Friday.

[Rabbi]

A farm out to Chevron has solved Beach problems in respect of Capex. for it's shale campaign, while Beach is still retaining a significant interest. No doubt Chevron will bring some expertise and experience to the party.
Hard to say how far this thing will run but I note that Beach is treading water as far as conventional production is concerned, although the new pipe lines may help to get them over the line.

[NZSilver]

Anyone following this one, I held for a short period about a year ago and made a good profit, I see it's dropped to $1.15 (30%) since January. It seems they have had good results drilling with higher hit rates. I have strayed away from oil and gas / mining sectors, but I would be interested in what people think and if anyone has done some research/been keeping an eye on BPT.

[macduffy]

It seems that the market is over the initial burst of excitement about BPT and its shale gas and the realisation has sunk in that there's still a long way to go to prove profitability there. The abundance of gas being discovered - and produced - in the USA is also a factor as pressure on the international price of LNG increases.

[NZSilver]

It seems that the market is over the initial burst of excitement about BPT and its shale gas and the realisation has sunk in that there's still a long way to go to prove profitability there. The abundance of gas being discovered - and produced - in the USA is also a factor as pressure on the international price of LNG increases.
Thanks boss

[macduffy]

From the AFR:

Beach Energy's move to beef up its already bulging balance sheet has caught the attention of some investors who could see the oil and gas player making a move on smaller rivals Drillsearch or Senex Energy. The $1.4 billion Beach is topping up a $150 million debt facility through ANZ Banking Group and Commonwealth Bank of Australia, increasing the loan to $320 million on three- and five-year terms.

It comes as the company already had $343 million cash on its balance sheet at December 31 and received another $US190 million cash upfront from a deal with Chevron in February.

At the same time, analysts expect it would have burnt through only $43 million cash in the 2013 financial year.

It means Beach Energy could have upwards of $500 million in cash when it reports full-year numbers next month, before it draws down any new debt. That makes the recent capital raising all the more curious. The company says its credit-growth hungry bankers offered the increased package and there was no reason not to take the funds. It's also possible Beach Energy may be preparing to take out $150 million of the company's convertible notes due next year.

But it is hard to overlook the possibility Beach may be building a war chest for potential acquisitions. Beach has been an active asset trader in recent years and there is logic it joining up with neighbour Senex or Drillsearch. It already owns a small stake in Drillsearch and the pair have a number of joint ventures.

The question for Beach is whether Drillsearch and Senex represent good value at a time when the Australian dollar is falling. The falling dollar should be good news for Beach's oil production revenue, and may discourage ideas of offshore expansion.

[Corporate]

This is very interesting. Especially because COE and DLS also increased their facilities.

I think DLS would be the best fit for BPT.

[NZSilver]

What are these guys cost of production per barrel? hard to find anywhere, would also be interested in WPL (woodside) and STO (santos) production costs, prob a good time to buy some low cost producers

[macduffy]

According to the company -BPT - it's $A25 pb.

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/11/27/beach-energy-not-worried-about-oil-price

[macduffy]

It's a while since anyone on this side of the Tasman showed interest in Beach - now known as Beach Energy. Meanwhile, speculation that they are vying for Shell's NZ assets.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/dataroom/beach-tipped-to-be-vying-for-shells-nz-energy-assets/news-story/a447664a078f3c1304adb68a3878cc66

Disc: I hold the rump of a holding, courtesy of leftovers from a dividend investment scheme!

[NZSilver]

good run last few months, still worth looking at? thoughts?

[Rabbi]

good run last few months, still worth looking at? thoughts?

Has had a decent run up on the price of oil but there were other factors. One of them was the takeovers of AWE and Santos which bolstered oil stocks
like Beach which were not anywhere near fair value. They also bought Lattice energy when the oil price was low, and now they are reaping a windfall
and cutting back their debt quite quickly. You would think they might run out of steam any time soon, however if oil keeps rising, their quarterly figures
impress, and they get into the ASX 100 then there is alot more upside.

[Rabbi]

Well the oil price has taken a hit especially WTI, and Beach is now off about 20 cents from it's recent high. An overreaction?
It might pay to wait and see what the OPEC and the Russians decide at the next meeting before buying oil stocks. The conventional wisdom says that
OPEC will only counter the loss of production from Venezuela and the effect of the Iran sanctions. In that event there is no good reason for the oil price to
fall any further.

[Rabbi]

Well the oil price has taken a hit especially WTI, and Beach is now off about 20 cents from it's recent high. An overreaction?
It might pay to wait and see what the OPEC and the Russians decide at the next meeting before buying oil stocks. The conventional wisdom says that
OPEC will only counter the loss of production from Venezuela and the effect of the Iran sanctions. In that event there is no good reason for the oil price to
fall any further.

This denouement seems to be unfolding,with Beach rumored to be eyeing up other takeover targets already, so soon after winning
Origins' Lattice assets. Quadrant energy and Senex are rumoured to be on the hit list. Personally, I think Quadrant is too big a fish,
and Senex doesn't fit their profile. I wouldn't buy at this price unless I thought there was more upside?

[Rabbi]

Full year results were impressive but market sold the fact on heavy volume. A rise in the price of oil will be the catalyst for Beach to fly even higher.
The second biggest onshore oil producer in Australia.

[Rabbi]

Full year results were impressive but market sold the fact on heavy volume. A rise in the price of oil will be the catalyst for Beach to fly even higher.
The second biggest onshore oil producer in Australia.

Beach has the lowest p.e. ratio of all the top tier Aussie oilers. It is in fact the largest onshore oil producer in Australia.
Looks like it has been unloved and ignored by the market for too long. should have all its debt paid off by the end of next year or even sooner.
Picked up Lattice energy from Origin for a song and now reaping the benefits.

[macduffy]

Bullish tone to today's Investor Briefing:

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180927/pdf/43ypfdjgf14xb1.pdf

I sold mine a few years ago but overlooked the ExDiv status at the time and received a small extra parcel! These have now grown to be a slightly larger small parcel - but worth keeping at current prices.

[NZSilver]

Ive been watching this $2+ now at 1.25ish, directors buying on the way down but oil could fall further as america continues to produce a lot. Woodside also down significantly

[wizAlvin]

ASZ 2019 competition closing in few hours

[peat]

Looking quite cheap historically nowadays.

Sure oil isnt flavour of the month but it is still selling at $US40 a barrel. and Beach only spends $A5 to get one out.

[macduffy]

Incidentally, Beach Petroleum is now Beach Energy - as is the fashion these days.