Pumpkin Patch

[percy]

Bang on, W69.

Be very surprised if someone is not casting a close eye on this company.

Most probably their bankers.!!!!!!
Rod Duke who is a shareholder would have enough money in his Briscoes group to buy it,but whether he would want too remains to be seen.
I note a lot of rationalization going on in the rag trade in Aussie,I lot of people losing their shirts,with store closures and mergers,as stores fight for survival.
On going leases and staffing rights mean it is very difficult to reduce costs.Never heard of Westfield reducing a tennants rent.To remain in business you need to sell stock at a good margin.Unsold stock cloggs the system,adding to handling,storage,and other costs,and takes up room where new stock should be displayed.Paying too much for your stock reduces your margin and adds to your capital employed.Forever having sales undermines your premium brand.
Wish I could post a positive comment,but I can't.As you pointed out winner69,it was such an exciting vibrant company.All other retailers looked to them for ideas.

[Balance]

Most probably their bankers.!!!!!!
Rod Duke who is a shareholder would have enough money in his Briscoes group to buy it,but whether he would want too remains to be seen.
I note a lot of rationalization going on in the rag trade in Aussie,I lot of people losing their shirts,with store closures and mergers,as stores fight for survival.
Wish I could post a positive comment,but I can't.As you pointed out winner69,it was such an exciting vibrant company.All other retailers looked to them for ideas.

Music to the ears of private equity players.

Sadly for New Zealand, that's how they have been able to make mega dollars from New Zealand investors.

I look at Diligent and Feltex to name but two, and I think I know what's the big difference between them and most of NZ investors/shareholders.

[Silverlight]

Well insiders love these levels.

Maurice bought 250k at just over $1, new CEO bought some at $1.15 & last week some more at 79 cents. The FX losses are nothing new, were discussed in 2010 AR, and the levels they hedged at are market known, hence why we are under 80 cents, if the hedges were similar to WHS in mid 70's then the stock would be trading at $1.25.

In the end, they are at the premium end of the market, their clothes are higher quality, and they are still making cash, just on lower margins. When their margins were superior the stock was $5, good win buying at $5, and now its below $1 on lower margins, seems like good buying if you think Pumpkin Patch will exist in 5 years.

[winner69]

.....and they are still making cash, just on lower margins.

Free cash flow been negative the last 2 years according to the accounts

[Halebop]

Free cash flow been negative the last 2 years according to the accounts

Agreed, cashflow has been grim and will dictate the share price more than profitability. I'd expect, subject to modest profitability and heavy stock reduction that cashflow would improve this year - maybe $20m+. 'Normal' markets tend to respond positively to sound cashflow so would expect PPL to respond appropriately but I wouldn't at all be surprised to see them go lower in between. This ranging bear market blows and at the moment so does PPL.

[janner]

That calls for a compulsory gargle with Grandma's Lysol Belg..

[winner69]

That 68 at the mo must be an all time low ... even lower than the depths of despiar in the last GFC .... jeez what happens if there is another global crisis

Silverlight .... performance those insiders must be real proud off eh .... and loving it by buying more shares?

Never been cheaper .... and bugger bugger the NZD is going up again so the balance sheet not looking too good again

[winner69]

When things start looking bad - the colelctive sentiment of the market seems to be thinking this way - I always have a look at the good old Altman Z-score. been a trusty indicator in the past to assess the financial well being of a company - Feltex being a great example

From the last accounts PPL Altman Z-score comes in at 2.58 - according to Altman such a score means 'Good chances of the company going bankrupt within 2 years of operations from the date of financial figures given."

Only time will tell whether Mr Altmans little ratio is a good indicator

[winner69]

Good one Belg ... HBY at least faced up to their problems and got their house in order - and you were clever enough to recognise that effort

Do you see PPL doing the same? Doesn't seem to be much sign of them doing so eh

Maybe Mr Altman needs to reword his outlook to 'Good chances of the company going bankrupt within 2 years unless they get their house in order "

I'd say Altman is right more than he is wrong .... 2.58 is bad but not always terminal .... if it was 1.8 it would be terminal

Hope you can make 150% out of PPL as well .... if they can get their house in order eh

[lou]

Still trending down

3696

[winner69]

Still trending down

3696

take it you haven't bought any yet lou .... but don't be too patient else belg might beat you to the cheap ones .... whatever that price is

[lou]

@winner69

Still have not picked up any. They have fallen a further 27% since my last post on the 5/9/11 so not disapointed about missing out to Bleg.

[winner69]

AGM - ' share price does not reflect the underlying value of the business' .... 'the market does not understand us' ..... 'will will fix that, and that process starts now'

A lot of good stories but you will have to wait until March to hear anything about how things are going (ie no guidance given)

So does this mean the shareprice will hang around these levels for some time yet?

[Blendy]

great comments, thanks for that Belgarion. I was wondering about a lot of what you've said myself, and it is good to see you have some good optimism :)

[winner69]

Belg ... wonder when their profit downgrade coming?

[Lizard]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10777680

If PPL managed to hold their margins (and didn't price themselves out of the market) then they should have some good news coming in the NZ segment ... Couple of big "ifs" tho ...

I would have thought you be more excited about HBY on the back of that article... footwear outlets up 9.2% over pcp is not to be sneezed at!

(One thing going against PPL is the return to declining total birth numbers in NZ)

[winner69]

Administartion should save shareholders a few bucks .... easier to get out of leases and screw employees

Not many NZ listed companies con lay claim to putting operations in 2 different countries into bankruptcy / administartion .... great effort and well done for a bunch of cowboys taking the world by storm

Bit of an embarrasment really .... but who cares

[percy]

Gee Whiz makes me wonder how they stay afloat.If they can turn this around and someone can make money out of it I wish them well.
Can't see any Aussie or Kiwi landlords giving them a break.Also having to order stock so far in advance must make this business very difficult to have the right level and mix of stock.Very interested to note they at least see the value of internet sales.This may be their future.
Has the look of a company that has been places,rather than a company going places.

[winner69]

Pumpkin in great company ..... Kodak in Chapter 11 .... at least PPL do it a bit at a time

[janner]

At least Kodak have some I P to sell..

[Silverlight]

The sales that you see here and online reflect the macro environment, clothes are higher quality than competition, durable last longer etc (that is the view from my two sisters, and 4 sister in-laws).

Look at the owners of PPL, there will be no takeover by outsiders, maurice 12%, duke 10%, cameron 10%, acc 15%.

3 cent div this year, expected to be 7 cent this coming year (10 cents with imputation), still a profitable business, had a rough time, I bought first lot at $1, second lot at 60 cents, so average price 80 cents. Look at the relints, CEO, director, officer, all buying, insiders no more than you, why throw away their own hard earned cash. Check SSH's ACC increasing their stake.

As Belg said, they highlighted that they would close the UK stores that they could not turn around, therefore earnings going forward become more transparent, and profitable, risk off with uncertainty removed. If the 7 cent div is confirmed, 1.50 by year end.

[winner69]

As the price rockets upwards ... Belgie looks down at his pyrimid and at this height, wishes it was bigger ... ;) ... If SliverLight is right it'll look way small at the height of 1.50 ...

W69, Time to average up ... what say you ... ;)

Time to average up? Sure is Belg now a lot of risk has been eliminated

One problem with averaging up is that you lose skite factor like janner and his $1.80 NPX shares ....ever mind they'll will be profitable in due course eh ... $s matter more than %ages

Your (inverted) pyramids worry be though Belg ..... do you ever get to the stage when you complete one pyramid (an standard one with the broad base and pointing top) and then start building an inverted one on top of that .... and end up with an inverted pyramid sitting on a standard pyramid

Googled you methodology but no joy .... this was the best I found (even if a bit unstable looking)

[janner]

Thanks for that Pyramid posting Belg. Have not used that before.. May even help me skite some more :-)0

Hey Winner the 1.80 is only my original purchase price..

The 94 % now held of original quantity... 25% Sold and rebought is at a price that is a real skite..

But that is what it is all about ..

Thanks again Belg..

[Blendy]

well I've been trying my best to buy Pumpkin Patch clothing when needed, but it's pretty impossible to pass up the JK sales with everything in store $15 or less....

[Silverlight]

Could I request some TA analysis from someone on the potential start of a new uptrend?

[winner69]

Could I request some TA analysis from someone on the potential start of a new uptrend?

You know the answer silver ..... of course it is in an uptrend .... 60 to 80 last few months not too bad eh .... thats what happens when pyramids get built

[iceman]

I had an interesting chat with my wife the other day about Pumpkin Patch.

She doesn't buy clothing for our children from there anymore. She used to buy a lot of the baby/infant clothes there back in 2006/2007, but feels the Pumpkin Patch brand is neither here nor there anymore. It's not upmarket enough for her, nor is the pricing good enough to be deemed worthy for opportunistic buying.

JKs and other brands seem to do a better job of pitching for the cheaper/budget end, and she would rather buy "labels" like Ralph Lauren and Baby Gap through the internet from the USA (ship to friends and they bring to us).

"It's just not a decent brand anymore, not like it was when our first boy was born"

Now, one housewife doesn't make for a comprehensive analysis on the woes of PP, but I wonder if their problem is that of marketing and product positioning?

I was appalled to take a wander around David Jones and Myers in Melbourne in October last year, and see the almost contemptible way that PP products were being arranged in the children's wear sections. (Racks under the elevator, tucked around the side, while the Ralph Lauren and other megabrands got placement in the high pedestrian areas).

Sparky I have recently had a very similar conversation with my wife when we went to buy clothes for a newborn grandson. We walked around the store for about 5 minutes and then left disappointed and empty handed. We ended up buying all the clothes at JKs.

[winner69]

who owns this jk's?

they sound pretty switched on

[CJ]

Sparky I have recently had a very similar conversation with my wife when we went to buy clothes for a newborn grandson. We walked around the store for about 5 minutes and then left disappointed and empty handed. We ended up buying all the clothes at JKs.We too are in the market for some infant clothing. Have gone into PP a couple of times and walked out empty.

[Hoop]

Could I request some TA analysis from someone on the potential start of a new uptrend?

Hi Silver ...uptrend? or did you mean if it is the start of a primary uptrend (bull market cycle)?. The Coppock indicator (not shown on chart below) is just at this moment of time starting to swing upwards from well below zero hinting a possible change from bear market cycle to Bull market cycle...It's still early days but it's a slight ray of sunshine for PPL

...but there's bad news....the immediate future looks cloudy with diverging indicators signaling this uptrend off the bottom is weakening and losing momentum... The divergences signal that the 78 - 80c Primary support may not hold which could put this uptrend at risk.

A positive viewpoint is PPL could be having a healthy breather on its good run upwards..and the price may pull back to test the uptrend line then move up again.....so those investors who haven't been scared off by the divergences and taken their profits should now focus on the support line and the up trend line below it.

The chart is a couple of days out of date... I would like to see the up to date Bollinger bands ..to see if the trend altering squeeze (purple arrows) has ended...Will know by the end of the weekend by that time the free Yahoo feed will be up to date

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PPL29022012.png

[Hoop]

............The chart is a couple of days out of date... I would like to see the up to date Bollinger bands ..to see if the trend altering squeeze (purple arrows) has ended...Will know by the end of the weekend by that time the free Yahoo feed will be up to date.

No point for me to spend time to update the chart....PPL has been flat lined for a month now...As of Friday The Bollinger Bands are still tight and squeezing so expect a trend to emerge. The indicators still show weakness.

[macduffy]

I just don't know what it is they do that is far better than any other children's clothing retailer.

More stores so better coverage; more marketing - do we ever hear about Just Kids or T and T?; listed company profile; but basically just the biggest fish in a pond of tiddlers.

Doesn't mean that they're any better or more profitable, though!

[JayRiggs]

Wow. Big jump in share price recently. Huge profit loss as expected, but markets seemed to like the increase in revenues. Still good buying at 90c?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

belgarion will they still exist at the end of year. Not likely IMHO.

[Silverlight]

belgarion will they still exist at the end of year. Not likely IMHO.

Interested to know what your opinion is based on Possum?

They have booked their $35m losses for the first half, no more loss making divisions, the share price is up almost 50% off its lows, they will likely make $13m profit in the 2nd half, wholesale revenue is up over 42%, already had a fully imputed 3 cent div this year, and while no interim, they may still pay 3 cents at full year.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Silverlight I have been saying this is a cr*p investment for about 4 years now the moneyied people I know have been saying their product was over priced rubbish for years now & sold out long before that. Just the same as I have been saying about F&P appliances. Every 3 months or so they come out with a new announcement that is going to turn things around. they have never succeeded. And in my opinion they never will.

[Blendy]

Pumpkin patch is having a nice jump today - up 7c to $1.05!

[Silverlight]

That 68 at the mo must be an all time low ... even lower than the depths of despiar in the last GFC .... jeez what happens if there is another global crisis

Silverlight .... performance those insiders must be real proud off eh .... and loving it by buying more shares?

Never been cheaper .... and bugger bugger the NZD is going up again so the balance sheet not looking too good again

29/12/2011 Bruce Walkley 14k @ 0.65
22/12/2011 Bruce Walkley 10k @ 0.65
13/12/2011 Bruce Walkley 26k @ 0.6269
20/10/2011 ACC 1.1m @ 0.74
4/10/2011 Neil Cowie 12k @ 0.7971
10/08/2011 ACC 295k @ 0.90
5/07/2011 Neil Cowie 17k @ 1.1541
23/06/2011 Maurice Prendergast 250k @ 1.04


Mostly good buying, follow the insiders to greater profits.

[winner69]

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3050582

Great story! But we'll have to wait until 2014 to see what it adds to the bottom line.

editted: Bruce Walkley must be kicking himself! No insider trading there. :)

editted: Crumbs! The top of my pyrimid looks a long way down from the heady heights we've hit today!

Could be a game changer eh Belg

On the subject of Amazon here is an interesting article
http://motherjones.com/politics/2012/02/mac-mcclelland-free-online-shipping-warehouses-labor

Love it ... rhe rich making moey out exploiting the needy

[janner]

I have Duke and Cameron on 16% and Montani 20%..

Don't know if that make a difference one way or the other.

Worth a shot purely as a Spec.. ..

[janner]

Opps.. that is mill shares.. Not % .. My mistake.. Still worth watching though..

[Hoop]

So the ACC has increased their stake to 9% ... Gives some comfort to Belgie that I've been doing the right thing. I wonder what the ACC's average price of their 9 per cent is? Hate to be your comfort breaker Belg.. I know ACC watched PPL fall from 2.30 and 8 months later bought into the still ongoing downtrend (an investor No No!!:t_down: ) ACC went from 5% to 6% paid about 1.40 then watched their entire PPL asset fall to 90c something....then!!! lesson still not learn't :sleep: in Aug 2011 bought more at about 95c (holding 6.3% incr to 7.3%) and ..watched them fall in price again :(......lesson learn't this time???:)...nah!!:p in Oct 2011 they bought more probably about at 75c (holding from 7.4% to 8.9%) then watched that investment sour by 20% :( until the bottom at 58c...Then my ACC levee's went up due to tough economic times.......then the good news happened:t_up:!! well sort of :mellow:..PPL rocketed back up.. it doubled in price :t_up::D...so those catching the falling dagger investments looked like it paid off:cool:..Nah!!! the TA sell signals reappearred around the $1.00 mark and ACC haven't off loaded some of their significant % holding. Latest PPL price 94c up 1c. Hint...TA buy signals appearred Jan 2012 at 70c

[Silverlight]

If the product sold in 1H12 had been purchased at an average USD/ NZD rate of $0.8200, EBIT for the 6 month period would have been approximately $10m higher.

According to presentation NZDUSD cover of 89% buying at 66 cents this year, and 70% at 68 cents for 2013, so with the NZDUSD falling from 82 to 75, this is almost halfway, I guess the currency fall is worth almost 3 cents per share for the 2nd half result, and then some for 2013.

PPL has fallen over 25% from when the Amazon deal was announced, anyone have any thoughts? Looks like a good opportnuity to add some more.

[JayRiggs]

According to presentation NZDUSD cover of 89% buying at 66 cents this year, and 70% at 68 cents for 2013, so with the NZDUSD falling from 82 to 75, this is almost halfway, I guess the currency fall is worth almost 3 cents per share for the 2nd half result, and then some for 2013.

PPL has fallen over 25% from when the Amazon deal was announced, anyone have any thoughts? Looks like a good opportnuity to add some more.

I would feel alot more comfortable going in at a lower price than now (88c as of writing).
The latest half yr net profit from continuing operations still fell from 8.585 million to 5.843 million, down over 30% even without the UK/US operations, which is quite a concern.
I guess alot of this will be down to high cotton price and the currency as you mention.

I'm a TA noob, but I see the 50 day exponential moving average is starting to come down to the 200 day exponential moving average. If it crosses below the 200 day average, perhaps it means the start of a new downtrend?

Any chance we can get an updated TA chart Hoop pretty please?

[Hoop]

I would feel alot more comfortable going in at a lower price than now (88c as of writing).
The latest half yr net profit from continuing operations still fell from 8.585 million to 5.843 million, down over 30% even without the UK/US operations, which is quite a concern.
I guess alot of this will be down to high cotton price and the currency as you mention.

I'm a TA noob, but I see the 50 day exponential moving average is starting to come down to the 200 day exponential moving average. If it crosses below the 200 day average, perhaps it means the start of a new downtrend?

Any chance we can get an updated TA chart Hoop pretty please?

Sorry a bit late ...Incrediblechart NZX data feeds come from Yahoo...2 days late!!! but chart is still relevant.

Seems to be a support zone 78 to 85c perhaps a bounce up from here??? wait for the signals.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PPL22052012.png

[JayRiggs]

Thank you Hoop! I will be watching closely.

[Hoop]

Geez! 20 years! A life sentence. Sparky, I wouldn't read anything into it given her length of service. If she left at the top a few years ago you could have said the same thing. In a down trend, the same thing. And in uptrend (as now) the same thing..

Geez Belg some uptrend ... A mini-me version...eh?..... "Mighty Oaks from little Acorns grow"..

From 24th May post + chart

Sorry a bit late ...Incrediblechart NZX data feeds come from Yahoo...2 days late!!! but chart is still relevant.

Seems to be a support zone 78 to 85c perhaps a bounce up from here??? wait for the signals.

Update:
That "seemed" 78 - 85 support Zone has become real as it did bounce up from there (bullish) so it is now a confirmed area and I have drawn it into my chart...

Signals?????
On the 7th June "smart money" (Duke??) triggered buy signals on the money flow indicators OBV TwiggsMF and ACC/DIST This added momentum at that time and the price bounced off the 85 top of the support zone...However other indicators didn't fire.
From the chart below there seems to be a lot of minor resistances MA50 at 94 EMA200 at 92 short term resistance line at 93 and the Bollinger bands are squeezing up indicating a change of trend tempo or trend reversal (not on chart).
There seemed to be slight signs of TA weakness appearing but it didn't affect the shareprice price yesterday (up 2 to 91c)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PPL27062012.png

[Lizard]

Having a nice morning there, Belgarion?

Who said retail is dead? :)

[winner69]

Having a nice morning there, Belgarion?

Who said retail is dead? :)

Percy will be shattered ..... retail is not dead and is the place to be in at the moment so it has been so neglected in the last year or so

Bugger .... Postie bucking the trend

[percy]

Who said retail is dead? :)[/QUOTE]

WARNING: Do not be fooled by dead cat bounces.!!!!!

[winner69]

So now you invert your pyramid eh belg

[Blendy]

The only two above me in the NZX comp who selected PPL are at positions 1 and 2 ... Belndy and Everwood. Ho hum. :)

Don't worry - at least your actual holdings are providing you with real winnings! (my real holdings are still in the red)

[Everwood]

I will not be back into the black until it hits $1.33

[Toulouse - Luzern]

One that Fisher Growth Fund has in the portfolio.

[Balance]

One that Fisher Growth Fund has in the portfolio.

Yes, mostly bought at over $3 and now only some left - the rest sold to the likes of Rod Duke and Jane Cameron at huge losses. Not to Carmel Fisher personally of course - just the unfortunate minnows who were superbly netted into her funds by slick PR and media relations.

Carmel "Buy high, sell Low" Fisher strikes again!

[winner69]

Yep belg. ......always pay to be ahead of the curve eh

Some gurus say buy before the bottom of the cycle ....better than waiting for the upturn to have happened ....you just like one of these gurus eh

Still topping of the pyramid ....or slowly dismantling it

[Silverlight]

Any predictions for the result that's a week away? ... I'm seeing a leap to about 1.35 or more. But, the last market update was very cunningly worded so without the full detail it could be much, much better (or maybe a tad worse) than the market currently expects.

If they reinstate the dividend, and announce say a 3 cent dividend, I think it will pop. Recent rally has been driven a by a few institutions taking positions, so more good news could see us at $1.50.

[Everwood]

Disappointed they didn't reinstate a small dividend, but the result looks positive for the future.

[winner69]

Headline NP doesn't look that flash until you strip out the non-cash items that relate to cash burn from previous years. PPL's generating heaps of cash again. They could have paid a divie but I guess mgt wants to keep a cash buffer in case GFC2 (lead by media and insiders) means people close their wallets again. Sahme they still can't get their FX sorted. Sales are down a bit in some areas and this is a concern (but not much of one at this juncture except in Oz).

I note the Mr Mkt is responding by dropping 5c to 1.13 ... Don't these people read the detail in the accounts? ... Actually, that may not be completely fair as I've yet to plug the numbers into my spread sheet but it doesn't seem right to me. 41m in cash generated vs last years paltry

Operating cash flow was $14m belg ....and they had $7m of capex so essentially fre cash of $7m ....still better than last year

Today's press has them telling Aussie landlords cut the rent or get a new tenant ....we not signing 7 year leases at these rates on marginal stores .....so there

[percy]

Operating cash flow was $14m belg ....and they had $7m of capex so essentially fre cash of $7m ....still better than last year

Today's press has them telling Aussie landlords cut the rent or get a new tenant ....we not signing 7 year leases at these rates on marginal stores .....so there

My brother, who lives in Hobart, has just returned from his winter mainland trip.Drives up the middle from Melbourne and then over to the coast up by Townsville,then comes all the way down the East coast. His comments "A lot of empty shops everywhere."Westfield are trying to get fashion retailers rent up to 30%,yes 30% of their turnover.Add staff costs of up to 15% of turnover and things start to get rather tight.Therefore online becomes very attractive.!!!!!!!!!!!!
Last thing you want in retail is an empty shop next to you.

[winner69]

My brother, who lives in Hobart, has just returned from his winter mainland trip.Drives up the middle from Melbourne and then over to the coast up by Townsville,then comes all the way down the East coast

Jeez that brother must like driving percy

When I was young I thought that Townsville was just out of Brisbane so we borrowed a mates old Holden and nip up there for a couple of days ....1300 Kms was a long way back in those days

[percy]

Jeez that brother must like driving percy

When I was young I thought that Townsville was just out of Brisbane so we borrowed a mates old Holden and nip up there for a couple of days ....1300 Kms was a long way back in those days

He tows a caravan behind his Ford Territory,and spent A$2,600 on petrol.!!!!!! ?????????????

[smpl]

when is next dividend payment expected?

[JayRiggs]

PPL annual meeting today. Anyone went?
I went to last years one and treated myself to some mini pies at the end :)

From Neil Cowie's speech:

The retail conditions across all of our markets remain challenging. The softer conditions we experienced in 2012 have carried across into 2013 and we currently don’t see anything that would indicate that these conditions will materially improve in the short term
...
As in past years we will not be providing specific earnings guidance today as it is just far too early in the financial year to do that, especially this year with the volatility being seen in our markets.

Sounds like more the same at least for the next year. My concern is the net profit from 2011 to 2012 went down, despite taking away the reorganization costs.

Hope they can start paying dividends again!

[Balance]

Someone has been picking up stock everyday for 1 week now and today, picked up reasonable volume to $1.30.

Looks suspicious and could be something in the offing?

[Silverlight]

Someone has been picking up stock everyday for 1 week now and today, picked up reasonable volume to $1.30.

Looks suspicious and could be something in the offing?

Same fund manager who bought in at $1.20 window dressing the stock to $1.50 for their new year bonus...:p

[Balance]

Same fund manager who bought in at $1.20 window dressing the stock to $1.50 for their new year bonus...:p

Too early for window dressing.

Looks like corporate activity in the offing.

Well, if it happens, you read it here first.

[Balance]

"corporate"? Or big private investors? Methinks the later. I'm guessing we'll be seeing brokers scurrying around trying to find large parcels to the hungry which will cause lurches in shareprice movements as the deals are struck. (BTW: I've already turned down feelers as the time to sell will probably be in 2-3 years at the top of the next retail cycle. Quite happy to wait.)

$1.36 and sellers fleeing the scene.

Smells like FPA just before the takeover offer.

Word leaking out?

[Balance]

Nope ... Just the christmas spending numbers that show more consumer spending this year than last ... Nz, Oz, UK, etc and bigger internet sales than ever before.

... PPL will get a slice of the action :)


It's all good, Belg-me-ole-mate.

2013 could be a very good year for the surviving retailers of the GFC?

[Silverlight]

Nope ... Just the christmas spending numbers that show more consumer spending this year than last ... Nz, Oz, UK, etc and bigger internet sales than ever before.

... PPL will get a slice of the action :)

While the market is up 25%, this has been one of best performers in the past 12 months up over 100%. Other than FPA, what else in the NZX50 is up this much?

[CJ]

While the market is up 25%, this has been one of best performers in the past 12 months up over 100%. Other than FPA, what else in the NZX50 is up this much?Both DIL and XRO spring to mind but they weren't in the NZX50 at the start (136% and 186% per Google respectively)

[Balance]

$1.39 now and sellers scarce.

I am sticking with my view that there's a takeover coming.

Loaded like Belg-me-ole-mate and waiting!

[Blendy]

I am sticking with my view that there's a takeover coming.



That could be interesting - I wonder who it would be? Local company, or Australian or someone in the UK maybe?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Blendy the only one that would be Stupid enough is the Warehouse IMHO

[Blendy]

hahahaha! :)

[CJ]

Blendy the only one that would be Stupid enough is the Warehouse IMHOJan Cameron seems to have blown her load with her Australia discount shops so maybe should could bring her rolling 50% discount strategy to PPL.

[Silverlight]

The sales that you see here and online reflect the macro environment, clothes are higher quality than competition, durable last longer etc (that is the view from my two sisters, and 4 sister in-laws).

Look at the owners of PPL, there will be no takeover by outsiders, maurice 12%, duke 10%, cameron 10%, acc 15%.

3 cent div this year, expected to be 7 cent this coming year (10 cents with imputation), still a profitable business, had a rough time, I bought first lot at $1, second lot at 60 cents, so average price 80 cents. Look at the relints, CEO, director, officer, all buying, insiders no more than you, why throw away their own hard earned cash. Check SSH's ACC increasing their stake.

As Belg said, they highlighted that they would close the UK stores that they could not turn around, therefore earnings going forward become more transparent, and profitable, risk off with uncertainty removed. If the 7 cent div is confirmed, 1.50 by year end.

Almost at my 20 Jan target for the year end.

[Balance]

Blendy the only one that would be Stupid enough is the Warehouse IMHO

You mean just like Haier buying FPA?

[Blendy]

slightly off topic, but just got an email from Entertainment Book saying there's a 60% off sale online at pumpkin patch, or 50% off instore with your entertainment card. That's some big discounting, and also slightly weird combo advertising. Why would Entertainment Book be working with Pumpkin Patch?

[CJ]

slightly off topic, but just got an email from Entertainment Book saying there's a 60% off sale online at pumpkin patch, or 50% off instore with your entertainment card. That's some big discounting, and also slightly weird combo advertising. Why would Entertainment Book be working with Pumpkin Patch?Entertainment book has a capitive audience of those that like to get a discount and I assume takes a smaller cut than the likes of Grabone (approx 25% I understand).

The question is why do it before christmas? Sales cant be looking good.

Alternatively my Jan Cameron rolling 50% discount theory is correct. She has done it to Macpac cheapening the brand IMHO.

[winner69]

Close 140 after a high of 145 ......highest for almost 2 years

Thinking like you bal ......something's up and no doubt we will know what in the new year

Done ok here you and belg

[Everwood]

Does anyone know when they will be releasing their half yearly result? They have usually told the market by now when the release result will be announced.

[Joshuatree]

Dont know. Just email them and they should give you an approximate date at least.

[Huskeez]

Does anyone know when they will be releasing their half yearly result? They have usually told the market by now when the release result will be announced.Next Earnings Announcement 03/14/2013

[Everwood]

The result will be released on 18th March.

[KJ]

Given the performance of PPL over the last few years perhaps the market worrying on the back of a lack of news for sometime.
Hope that's all it is.

[Balance]

Of greater interest is Milford disclosing 5% shareholding this morning.

Those guys do extensive research before they take such positions so are they positioning for the upturn?

[winner69]

Pretty good result in these trying times ..... online on a roll .... and the rest positioned for the eventual better times ..... just remember that for from here almost 30% of every extra buck goes through to the bottom line

[KJ]

Disappointing result with bottom line worse than last yr.

[biker]

......One notes the diplomatic but caustic words about not having the stock on hand for southern hemisphere Christmas. Heads have rolled and "it won't happen again". Shouldn't have happened in the first place!...
...

Couldn't agree more Belgarion.


.......Adding to this, we experienced the late delivery of summer inventory at the start of the season......

With the US/UK losses debacle and now this, I'm beginning to lose faith in the management. The market must be wondering what next? Any amount of MAM due diligence can't prevent management/board room incompetence.

[Silverlight]

Lower sales, but higher margins, good focus. Back into profit, online still growing at an exceptional rate. Capital management focus on dividend for the full year, and reducing debt. Clearly managing the FX still is a bit of an issue.

Focus on emerging markets, and more online growth, think market just got ahead of itself, and was expecting 10m+ profit and dividend re-instatement. Expect a 4c dividend at full year, good buying for the growth at $1.25.

[Silverlight]

I agree SL. Given the very low volumes in PPL I wonder where support will form? Could be below a dollar? Once support appears I think I'll start adding ...

Looks to be circa $1 now.

If PPL made 4.7m first half, which accelerates in the 2nd half to $10m-$15m for the full year, this would be a forecast P/E of less than 10!

A price of $1 looks incredible value in comparison to other retailers.

[KJ]

I think that first half is usually the better one due to xmas period.
Last yr:
1H Sales 161m NPAT 7.2m
2H Sales 140m NPAT 2.9m

[KJ]

Agree-hopefully not the same cock-ups & strong on-line growth should see a much better yr in 2014.Long overdue I would have to say.

[winner69]

Milford sold 1.2 Mill the oter day .must be putting more into PEB and ATM

[janner]

Milford sold 1.2 Mill the oter day .must be putting more into PEB and ATM

PEB & ATM are on the horizon of " US ".. Why would they be following ??..

[Hoop]

Belgie is getting grumpy ... Completely against his wishes and his clearly stated directives, support is forming around the 1.15 mark.

Belg you will pleased to know that I think 1.15 is resistance not support.....Have nice day:D

[Anna Naum]

VWAP 105. At last. Wonder if MAM was the buyer? Writing on the wall. 80c before it bottoms!

I think MAM call that dollar cost averaging

[Hoop]

Some rough maths says about 80c will be the bottom and the last support level back in July was around 90c.

So there we have it ... Belgie says "place your bets at 85 cents" ... :)

Listen folks ... stop buying ... its in a downtrend ... belgie says support will appear at 85c ... so let it get there!

Belgie is getting grumpy ... Completely against his wishes and his clearly stated directives, support is forming around the 1.15 mark.

Belg you will pleased to know that I think 1.15 is resistance not support.....Have nice day:D

Agreed. Waiting for 80 to come up!

Its nice to know that at two of you are my friends .... :D

At last! Sub dollar. Just another 20 cents to go and belgie will provide a bit of support.

Sighhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It seems my ACC levies is going to rise.....Belg, I suggest you go in and teach these guys how and when to invest.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PPL14062013.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PPL14062013.gif.html)
.................................................. ..MAM announced to NZX on the 5 June it seems they sold end of May

[Anna Naum]

Went to PP a couple of weeks ago and can report that the range is VERY poor this year with little of interest. St Lukes store was nearly empty but the stock was HUGE. The product mix and pricing appear wrong on this one, suggest there is more pain to come.

[randomguy]

DOWN, DOWN, DOWN. Lower than 80c?

[JayRiggs]

While stores don't look that busy, I think the online sales are going up and earning more than the retail operations?
Does anyone know how online sales are going?

[percy]

While stores don't look that busy, I think the online sales are going up and earning more than the retail operations?
Does anyone know how online sales are going?

From what I hear;"like a rocket."

[macduffy]

I don't hold PPL but FWIW Macquaries have downgraded their FY13 forecast NPAT by 27% to $9.7m. Still have an Outperform on the stock with a DCF valuation of $1.94 and a 12 month target SP of $1.25.

[winner69]

Maybe.

But my pyramid starts at 80c.

W69, take note. :)

Nobody talk to Belg or ask him any questions for a while

He is out of action for a few weeks while he does his pyramid building

With todays news this is going to be an even greater pyramid then even Belg imagined

Go to it Belg my man

[winner69]

I don't hold PPL but FWIW Macquaries have downgraded their FY13 forecast NPAT by 27% to $9.7m. Still have an Outperform on the stock with a DCF valuation of $1.94 and a 12 month target SP of $1.25.

Obviously they had no inside info eh - even less than $9.7m it going to be

[percy]

Shareholders will be heartened to read that PPL is "WELL POSITIONED" for the launch of the new summer season's product."
Non shareholders may think "Yeah Right".
While us sharetraders, will be wondering if the launching will be off Belgarion's massive pyramid?

[Hoop]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PPL28062013.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PPL28062013.png.html)
.................................................. .................................................. ............:D:D:D

[JayRiggs]

It all sounds like excuses to me.


Despite the unseasonal winter weather and the very subdued retail conditions in Australia and New Zealand, trading results across the winter season had been tracking to expectations for most of the season. However, over the last five weeks there has been a significant increase in the level of promotional activity in the Australian market with major retailers entering end of season sales much earlier and far more aggressively than normal. This will impact retail earnings for the remainder of the FY13 year.
The big Aussie retailers are upping their game to aggressively sell more stuff and PPL can't keep up. Maybe PPL haven't been tracking to expectations across the winter season, so they had to tell us something as if this earnings impact wasn't their fault.
If all these retailers are temporarily eating up more market share this winter, then what is PPL going to to about it? It sounds like they have admitted defeat and can't do anything about it.

Every time I walk past a PPL store (usually the Ponsonby one), they are always having some kind of sale. When they are having a sale all the time, then people will think it's normal, so it won't entice more people to come in. Now the time comes when PPL have to put on a "real" sale, because all the other big boys are doing it. PPL's response is "The Big Patch Winter Sale. Now up to 60% off, entire store and online". It doesn't sound that different from last week. It's 60% off instead of 30% off or whatever.

I think PPL should stop constantly being on sale and only do a sale when it matters!


In addition, as a result of wholesale partners altering delivery schedules to match their local promotion plans, a number of deliveries that have historically been made in July have been rescheduled to August and September. These changes are only timing in nature however FY13 after tax earnings for the International business unit will be impacted by $0.6m.
Ah yes, the problem is "only timing in nature". Well if it is, I expect to see PPL make up this $0.6m in FY14.


As a consequence of the above the FY13 full year earnings after tax but before reorganisation costs is now expected to be between $7.5m and $9.0m.
Sigh... more reorganisation costs? I thought the reorganisational stuff was all over with in FY12? Anyways, the actual FY13 full year earnings are going to be less than $7.5m-$9.0m then.


Despite the above the Company has been closely managing inventory across the winter season and will enter the new financial year well positioned for the launch of the new summer season's product.
If PPL are the top kids clothes retailers (one of the top if not... I'm having doubts), then they should be closely managing inventory throughout the year and they should always be well positioned for the launch of all products for all seasons. PPL are telling us stuff they SHOULD be doing all the time!!!


Based on current trading conditions the Company anticipates bank debt at the end of July will be around $50m
The Company has made good progress with the changes being made to the design and supply chain areas of the business. These initiatives will generate significant earnings benefits, improve working capital, and lower bank debt going forward. The first product developed under the new design process will be launched in Australia and New Zealand in August.


Not holding my breathe for this. PPL have been telling us they are doing this and that to improve earnings for years, but earnings have been going downhill for the last 3 years.

Whenever PPL release this sort of market update, I am finding it more unacceptable every time.
PPL have Rod Duke on the board and I expect him to add alot of value to the company, but no results so far.
All management and directors have got to seriously step up and stop making up these excuses.

[Silverlight]

I have young children in the Pumpkin Patch "target market".

Of the last $2000 spent on clothing them, my wife estimates $100, maybe $150 was spent at Pumpkin Patch. It's just not seen as a nice enough brand anymore. Fine for basic stuff that gets wrecked in the sandpit or dirt, but not clothes for when "on show", eg kids parties.

Maybe the Clown family isn't the target demographic. But I get the impression it's a "lost" brand. Not cheap enough to be budget clothing. Not valued enough to be a premium brand. Middle classes getting more choosy, and what cool 5-6 year old kid wants to wear "Pumpkin Patch" - sounds very 2-3 year old.

Notwithstanding the disappointing downgrade aside, Sparky, I had my sisters children stay (6 & 8 yrs) during the school holidays (6 weeks ago?), and all the wanted to do was go to the mall, and go shopping. We only went to the mall one day, for 2 hours was spent in Pumpkin Patch, and the place was packed. The Charlie and Me shop right next door was the same, however JK kids, was empty, but for 2 or 3 people.

The Warehouse sells a lot of kids clothing, and the more "on sale" PPL is, the more they will eat into their sales to maintain market share, just at what cost to margins, this past quarter has clearly shown.

[winner69]

looks like robertshawe building a bigger pyramid than you belg

[winner69]

What I have noticed in the last six months is the number of Facebook pages being set up to sell kids clothes - you preorder and pay for an item, the vendor then places a bulk order in China, and then the item is delivered 3 weeks later. Amazing kids stuff, for super cheap prices. Marketing is free as the pages go viral. And then there are the Facebook group sites that have been set up for friends to sell second hand kids clothing to each other, that are doing a roaring trade. Retail is changing - people are getting smarter, doing things differently, saving money.

Just like this

FROM http://tomfishburne.com/cartoons
You a clever guy that Tom ... had a drink with him a few years ago in London

[percy]

Great cartoons.

[winner69]

he is great eh percy ... I look forward to them every Monday

[CJ]

Hmmm, this company intrigues me at 82c or less. Do any PPL watchers have thoughts on this in terms of value?Hasn't the CEO just resigned to go to a competitor?

I think they have cleaned out a lot of the poor performing business but as parent in the target market, it is expensive and not a desirable brand.

[winner69]

CEO on his way ...to another nz retailer ....wonder who?

But there are good people to take over we are told .....bugger eh belg cause 80 cents may never be seen again

[gv1]

CEO on his way ...to another nz retailer ....wonder who?

But there are good people to take over we are told .....bugger eh belg cause 80 cents may never be seen again

Well over due!

[CJ]

A competitor? I only saw that it was a "fantastic" role with a private company in retail. http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pumpkin-patch-ceo-neil-cowie-resigns-take-job-rival-retailer-bd-143568NBR refered to it as a 'rival' in the headline : http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pumpkin-patch-ceo-neil-cowie-resigns-take-job-rival-retailer-bd-143568

That might just be Hyperbolie in the headline as stuff just says another retailer: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8982136/Cowie-lured-from-Pumpkin-Patch

[CJ]

NBR refered to it as a 'rival' in the headline

That might just be Hyperbole in the headline as stuff just says another retailerDefinitely Hyperbole, unless you count kids wear and DIY as competitors!

[winner69]

Be interesting how he goes at mitre 10 then

[macduffy]

I don't know if this has been reported in NZ.

From "The Age".

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-business/insider-tipped-to-take-pumpkin-patch-helm-20130802-2r33r.html

[gv1]

I don't know if this has been reported in NZ.

From "The Age".

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-business/insider-tipped-to-take-pumpkin-patch-helm-20130802-2r33r.html

I think she will be a good contender.

[winner69]

Getting back to a buck again

That 80 cents you wanted belg seems a long way off again

Retail seems back in favour again ......positive vibes

[percy]

Getting back to a buck again

That 80 cents you wanted belg seems a long way off again

Retail seems back in favour again ......positive vibes

Yeah Right.!!!

[golden city]

wow.., back up so fast..indicate a good report comming..

[gv1]

Whats happening with this one...went up to $110 and now dropped to 99c.

[macduffy]

Whats happening with this one...went up to $110 and now dropped to 99c.

That's just the market in action. Different players with different ideas taking different positions.

:cool:

[gv1]

That's just the market in action. Different players with different ideas taking different positions.

:cool:
Thanks Macduffy. Report out next week.

[Everwood]

Thanks Macduffy. Report out next week.
Full year result does not get released next week. It will be released on Friday 27th September.

[gv1]

Full year result does not get released next week. It will be released on Friday 27th September.
Oh thanks, was thinking next week.

[Everwood]

Full year result has been released.
https://nzx.com/companies/PPL/announcements/241673

It is good to see that the debt level has been reduced.

[gv1]

Not too bad! That big buyer at 75c got a bargain.

Current value? ... 28m / 170 shares ~= 16 cps ... at a PE Ration of 10 would be about $1.60

Is a PER of 10 right though? ... I think so. PPL is out of the fire, business is stable'ish with past wrongs being addressed. Falling sales is still troublesome but sales growth opportunities exist (C & Me, online) which are growing faster than traditional bricks & mortar sales (which are actually contracting). ... Maybe PE of 10 is too low?

discl: accumulated under $1.00 (will accumulate further to about 1.30, 1.40, maybe).

Yes, looking good, bought in at 1.10.

[Jay]

Have them in the Share Comp so the recent rise is helping that.


Should have bought some when the rise started, just kept watching it go up, can't buy everything!.

[golden city]

still plenty of opportunities to come

[golden city]

looks good to buy now.., keep creeping up

[golden city]

any news from ppl...., how come it is going down so quick

[Food4Thought]

any news from ppl...., how come it is going down so quick

Probably people exiting, to invest in more profitable companies. One heck of a dog from what I have seen. Have a long way to go. Bad sentiment. Too flash a brand, too expensive, many alternatives with similar quality and plenty of uncertainty. My guess.

[Disc: Don't hold, don't plan to hold]

I like AIR, PEB, WHS, KMD, AIA, BGR, MHI, etc etc, and a few more, that look good with long term outlooks. Perhaps a bit safe and slow for the more risk inclined investors, then again, getting burnt too often isn't fun either (PEB looks solid - No I don't hold - , but a bit baked in the mix there at the moment, yet enormous potential). {PPL burnt me big time in the past, DYOR, be very thorough, the brand isn't as amazing as I thought it was, went too big, too fast and out of control in my opinion}

[JayRiggs]

Yeah PPL has been a dog. Very frustrating times for us shareholders. Was looking at the Pumpkin Patch facebook page and there have been a number of complaints about their recently made over website. It appears to be very glitchy. If online sales are going to be the main source of revenue, they have got to get this fixed ASAP!

I have high hopes for Di Humphries. With all her experience from Hallensteins Glassons and Rode Duke as a director (dunno about the others), I see no reason why PPL cannot at least do better than now.

Looking at the PPL share price graph from IPO to now, I noticed the share price for each calendar year generally moves in 1 direction.

2004: UP
2005: UP
2006: UP
2007: VERY DOWN
2008: DOWN
2009: UP
2010: DOWN
2011: DOWN
2012: UP
2013: looking to be DOWN
2014: ???

Just say some really optimistic things at the annual meeting in 4 weeks time, have a strong period through Christmas, keep hacking that debt down, fix up the website, hint at a dividend for FY2014 in the half year result in March and we'll be on our way up.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/9134945/New-chief-looks-to-revive-Pumpkin-Patch

Humphries knows there's a lot of nerves in the market, particularly in those who have watched the value of their stake in the company shrink.

"I hold [shareholders] in my hands and I take that full responsibility on," she says. "I understand the nervousness."


Cmon Di! Hold us in your hands and take us higher higher HIGHER!!!!!

[golden city]

does high nzd hurts ppl?

[jamiec26]

Yeah PPL has been a dog. Very frustrating times for us shareholders. Was looking at the Pumpkin Patch facebook page and there have been a number of complaints about their recently made over website. It appears to be very glitchy. If online sales are going to be the main source of revenue, they have got to get this fixed ASAP!

The search function of the website looks like it's run by SLI. food for thought..

[golden city]

looks like support around 95-96c...

[golden city]

share prices looks like no good sign ....or people just scare away by agm..hopefully some lucky number comming out..

[mattwanz]

I work in a reasonable size retail business in NZ (not clothing) and given performance of business I work with believe retail in general on the upswing in NZ - think their new designs/ranges look pretty nifty too - have a two year old and 'The Mrs' quite happy to purchase the new designs rather than the much more expensive 'Minty' clothing she used to prefer by far.

Exposure to Australian economy could be less encouraging however my vote is for good news on the way.

[Hoop]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PPL04112013.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PPL04112013.gif.html)

[golden city]

australian economy picking up ..might be a good sign with good retail datas

[golden city]

been to some pumpkin patch stores..., all the right stock has arrived.., customer wise looks ok.., not full., but always people comming in and out

[golden city]

it is just the timming.thing..., ppl will be back..either first half or second half

[winner69]

Hey belg ...you missed this bit
After assessing various scenarios on all current known factors, on balance we believe there to be more downside risk than upside potential for earnings for the remainder of the year.

Guidance about the same as last year ......this says it really is LESS than last year ...ouch

But never mind as we re-engage with our consumers we be ok ...even if the shelves have no stock on them

PPL and PPG seem to have things in common ha ha

But current price cheap cheap as eh ...buy buy

[winner69]

Omg PPL in the 80s .......that must have been made news

At least the ASM would have been quite enlightening about hearing what mums and nanas thought and how they were going to re-engage with consumers ....until they said they were a bit stuffed this year

How do they re-engage with shareholders ...doubt they can

Only pyramid builders and the vultures interested methinks ....serious long term shareholders really pissed and deserted the ship ...or will be over the next few weeks

Price in the 80s and the news hardly out .....surely it won't test the 60s again ....surely not ...no impossible

Good times eh belg

[winner69]

AGM coming up ... Some good news? Or will they announce they've stuffed up the supply chain once again and Christmas sales will be below par?

I think you an insider belg

What a call

Was a flood somewhere in the world ...just bad luck eh

[winner69]

Sorry ....it wasn't just a flood ...there were the failure of two of our suppliers in china

Not very god at organising things are they belg

[golden city]

how far will the share price drop..., any indication guys

[percy]

Sorry ....it wasn't just a flood ...there were the failure of two of our suppliers in china

Not very god at organising things are they belg

PPL appear to have a lot of problems?!
All the time the landlords, staff,the phone company, the power company and the host of other overheads just keep on trucking on.

[winner69]

PPL is technically broken

Hoop said that on Nov 5th

Bit of an understatement I think Hoop

Most would say hindsight is a wonderful thing ..... but the signs were there of an impending disaster eh Hoop

[blackcap]

Not quite on topic but to me it seems that clothing retailers are doing it hard... Hallensteins, Postie Plus and now Pumpkin Patch...

[golden city]

to be honest..i am in retail too..it is very hard this year..., if they can make the same money as last year.., it is not bad

[percy]

But they probably won't. Still, they probably use whatever they do make to pay down more debt and holders won't get a divie. ... Methinks PPL may be looking for a buyer. (You heard that here first folks.)

They are not alone.!!!
However with expensive lease commitments in malls there are no willing buyers that I can think of.

[winner69]

Yes this pyramid builder is interested at 60c (more at 50c and more still @ 40c!) which allows for continuing hopelessness of PPL management to get their supply chain robust and sorted.

Not an insider W69. Just know that PPL has senior management issues ... To many women perhaps [tongue in cheek comment BTW]

If you really wanted to be sexist you should have said let the ladies sort out the fashion side of stuff BUT let the blokes do the blokie stuff like getting stuff into containers and onto ship and onto shelves

No I am in real trouble

[percy]

The board of Postie and senior management has been all men.They have an excellent record for getting it all wrong.!!!
In life I have met more foolish men than women!

[Snow Leopard]

The board of Postie and senior management has been all men.They have an excellent record for getting it all wrong.!!!
In life I have met more foolish men than women!

Reminds me of something I heard on the Radio long time ago.

Q: Why is it that Women do the cooking in the kitchen but Men take charge of the BBQ ?

A: Because Women do not know how to burn food properly.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS Is it Mum or Dad, Auntie or Uncle, Granny or Grandad who shops in PPL?

[winner69]

Belg ..really bored today and the poms aren't taking too many wickets so even th cricket is boring


If you did a DCF valuation on ppl back in 2006 and using free cash flows that hardly happened (none of this 20% pa growth fantasy stuff) it comes out at 17 cents .......and the 16 cents of that value is built into the terminal value ..like to be made from here onwards.

Amazing eh

In 8 years operating cash flow has been 167 million and they have spent 160 million ok vestment things like shops etc etc. suppose that 160million will pay its way one day

Guru analysts always have things going up eh ...in reality things don't seem to turn out that way do they.

Wond what the next 8 years will bring ....cash flows to support a 85 cent shareprice ....seems impossible

[winner69]

PPL reinvested almost every penny of operating cash flow bac inti the business ..... maybe good

PPL borrowed (no cash flow left) to pay dividends over the years ..... probably BAD

Shareholders equity halved from over $100m to $50m odd last 8 years ..... NOT GOOD

I only do this sort of stuff on basket cases ..... just to get an idea if there is any hope ...... and figure out where a good point to start a pyramid is (based on some numbers)

[winner69]

Hmmm ... two consecutive years with earnings at 3.3 cps ...

A very generous PE Ratio of 20 says the share should be trading at 66c ...

A more realistic PE Ratio of 10 says it should be at 33 cents ...

An even more realistic PE Ratio of just 5 says it should be at 16 cents ...

I feel a number of holders scrambling around for buyers ... floodgates should open soon ;)

Floodgates not open yet .....shareprice going up belg

As you say belg any decent future is dependent on their online activities - globally. That don't work goodness knows the future.

So kids now stop believing in Father Christmas and the tooth fairy 2 years earlier Han previously ...the age of innocence is shrinking .....seems to be then that the lifetime purchases of a loyal patch fan is getting smaller ... Not good

Awful lot of faith being put in this Di as CEO .....hope it works out for them

I see the old CEO is now at mitre 10 and is raving how he did good job at patch and going to transform mitre 10

Interesting times down at the patch

[winner69]

Did it all start going downhill in Greg muir s days? He was a Harvard guru I believe

[Nigel]

An even more realistic PE Ratio of just 5 says it should be at 16 cents ...


I don't understand why 5 would be a realistic PE?? Can you enlighten me? What's typical for retail stock expecting to increase it's earnings? 10-15?

[percy]

Did it all start going downhill in Greg muir s days? He was a Harvard guru I believe

Our boy Greg is picking up awards at Tru-Test.!!!
Still a Harvard guru!!!

[winner69]

Our boy Greg is picking up awards at Tru-Test.!!!
Still a Harvard guru!!!

I knew you would bring that up

Maybe learnt something from his Hanover days

Or has learnt the realities of the world and his learnt from his failures

Note I didn't blame him for the WHS problems .....like getting wiser as you get older eh Percy

[percy]

I knew you would bring that up

Maybe learnt something from his Hanover days

Or has learnt the realities of the world and his learnt from his failures

Note I didn't blame him for the WHS problems .....like getting wiser as you get older eh Percy

Only time will tell.?

[percy]

I knew you would bring that up

Maybe learnt something from his Hanover days

Or has learnt the realities of the world and his learnt from his failures

Note I didn't blame him for the WHS problems .....like getting wiser as you get older eh Percy

Only time will tell.?
May be a couple of years before we know the answer.!

[Blendy]

Just got an email from JK Kids saying they are closing down all stores! It's very sad to see local companies leaving the market. I wonder how this will impact PPL.

[Blendy]

Just got an email from JK Kids saying they are closing down all stores! It's very sad to see local companies leaving the market. I wonder how this will impact PPL.

[golden city]

ppl will be very happy ..one more competitor out of the market.., until ppl is the last one left.., they will thriving again

[golden city]

early discount for retailer ..30% off i saw today.., but it was quite busy

[golden city]

what is going on .still going down..major shareholder reducing..

[winner69]

early discount for retailer ..30% off i saw today.., but it was quite busy

was that for the shares

[JayRiggs]

what is going on .still going down..major shareholder reducing..
Yeah Maurice Prendergast sold 1 million shares at around 84c. Not a good sign.
Nothing much going on really. Just PPL in a downtrend.

[golden city]

when will be the bottom

[golden city]

that won't happen...won't go down under 60c ...my guess

[golden city]

ppl is not just depends on nz shops to sell their stuff for sure.., i am liking their internation presence opportunities.

[golden city]

i am sticking on the side line.., will wait and see my approach is ..., keen to see it on it's long term target.., before that will happen..i won't enter it..

[winner69]

Belg - its belong 80

Patiently we wait eh

[winner69]

The PPL chart since floating with my roughly drawn main trend lines is interesting

Three main cycles since 2004. The amplitude of each cycle is getting less each time around ......and the cycles are getting shorter ..... (cynically one could say PPL running out of breathe, like dying a slow death)

Each high is lower than previous - the 2011 low lower than the 2009 low. Will the 2013 low be lower still. The dotted line suggests that even 50 might be possible before the patient is resuscitated and given a new lease of life. Even then if this dying a slow death theory is true even $1 would be an extreme effort, esp when running out of breathe

What a load of rubbish all this is .... the nice looking marketing lady from Telecom will resuscitate real life back into this dog.

[winner69]

Yes this pyramid builder is interested at 60c (more at 50c and more still @ 40c!) which allows for continuing hopelessness of PPL management to get their supply chain robust and sorted.

Not an insider W69. Just know that PPL has senior management issues ... To many women perhaps [tongue in cheek comment BTW]

Nice looking young(ish) chick has given up her marketing job at Telecom to fix Patch

That'll help the diversity issue

[winner69]

That Kellie Nathan is pretty clued up

From her LinkedIn profile - I enjoy working with brands, and developing marketing programmes that excite both customers and staff. I thrive in an environment where I can use my creativity to make a difference to a brand, and I really enjoy leading a team of people towards the achievement of a common goal.


She might save Patch .... as long as they get stock on the shelves

[luigi]

A good write-up on her here:
http://www.stoppress.co.nz/blog/2013/12/kellie-nathan

[winner69]

I'd rather see someone who has a proven track record of stocking shelves! (I'm beginning to think PPL mgt have totally lost the plot!)

You don't just get it belg

Patch is all about the brand, designs and engaging with their cnsumers with all the new fandangled technology. It's al about creating that 'experience' that kids and mums and grannies will cherish forever .....and keep coming back to Patch for more.

They'll be OK

[Lizard]

Yep and maybe the next Labour govt will expand working for families and we can get another boost to the birth rate? :p

[golden city]

ppl looks real busy at mall

[In4a$]

Punters coming in, milling around and wondering where the stock is?
They were buying plenty when I had a look around in Manukau Mall. Tempted to get back into this stock.

[golden city]

it was crazy full of people buying in dressmark..and st lukes

[winner69]

The downtrend has resumed ... [evil grin] ... will be back to 60c in no time ... [evil grin]

But as W69 says: "Belg just doesn't get it" ... :)

You sure get it with Patch Belg

Following you down to sub 60 .... hope enough for both us .... twin pyramids would look impressive

[Hoop]

Hmmm...broken it's support at 75c
Its primary support is around 58c ...a bounce up from there, you guys reckon ...eh ??

[winner69]

w69, begun today. :)

Don't rush it thou

It took a while to build them in Egypt

[percy]

Not a good time to start building.
Wait until the sand storms stop.!

[Schrodinger]

Interesting to read right back to the start and look at the posts from old members regarding this stock. Hindsight is both a curse and a blessing with companies like these.

I did a quick report on ASB and get the disturbing trend of RAK with its awful margins however PP seems to make a small profit as compared with RAK.

Clothing is notorious to investors just like airlines and manufacturing businesses, well for NZ at least. If you are going to invest make sure it's for the short term as I can't see PP beating out bigger companies. Honestly how does a clothing company stop a race to the bottom?

Im not into fashion but how would they protect against competition. Looks like a poor investment to me..

[biker]

And what makes it any better than HLG at its more 'realistic' price?

[Valuegrowth]

I can remember they had some stores in the USA. What happened to them?

[winner69]

I can remember they had some stores in the USA. What happened to them?

Went into Chapter 11

[winner69]

You can see why Belg loves pyramids

PPL already for a another .... even though they are getting smaller still a 100% return on the cards

There were only three in the Pyramids of Giza .... just didn't get around to building the fourth ... Belg making up for it

[Valuegrowth]

Went into Chapter 11

That means even foreign companies having business in the USA can go to chapter 11. Am I correct?

[winner69]

http://cases.gcginc.com/ppc/index.php3


http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/13805876/daily-sharechat-pumpkin-patch.html

[Valuegrowth]

Thank you legends Belgarian and Winner69 for the information. I really appreciate.

[golden city]

my hand is itch on ppl's shares.., will wait pick up some in the right time

[percy]

I hope you were a Boy Scout as a boy,and you will remember to "be prepared."

[golden city]

let's see the dividends comming before get in

[golden city]

the only thing that worry's me before when they accounce someting surprise again., so better be secure., wait until the announcement came

[winner69]

PPL at 67 belg .....looking good

Should get our sub 60 methinks

[winner69]

We getting there belg .....

Saw you trades at 85 and somebody pretty keen to sell 30000 near days end

We shouldn't tell punters what we doing ..... Might put a floor under the price ha ha

C'mon 50 cents or there abouts

[Lizard]

So it was you guys writing Labour's latest policy this week then? :p

PPL did well when working-for-families first came in and the birth rate stepped up. Maybe some extra funding for families of newborns can do the same?

[percy]

What a great lesson in financial folly buying a share in a downtrend we are seeing .!!
Maybe more a lesson in grave digging than pyramid building!
5 years down 31.18%
2 years down 20%
1 year down 53.28%
6 months down 24.71%.
They came into retail with fresh product.
Now they are no different from Kmart,Farmers, or The Wharehouse ,all, who pay a lot less rent for their space in malls, and who have logistic systems that work.

[Hoop]

What a great lesson in financial folly buying a share in a downtrend we are seeing .!!
Maybe more a lesson in grave digging than pyramid building!
5 years down 31.18%
2 years down 20%
1 year down 53.28%
6 months down 24.71%.
They came into retail with fresh product.
Now they are no different from Kmart,Farmers, or The Wharehouse ,all, who pay a lot less rent for their space in malls, and who have logistic systems that work.

ACC in denial about that lesson Percy
PPL has been listed on the NZX for 9.5 years now ....The rise and bumpy fall of PPL ......PPL's recent look.........ugly!!! :p

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PPL31012014.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PPL31012014.gif.html)

[percy]

The real smart money would not have gone near it.!!!!!!!!!! lol.
Hoop thank you for the chart and your comments,even if I disagreed on the smart money.

[Hoop]

The real smart money would not have gone near it.!!!!!!!!!!
To be fair Percy ...PPL was stella stuff for the 2.5years after listing.....

....Unfortunately for many of the Fund companies e.g Fisher they came in too late to the party .....it's depressive reading looking back at the shareholder announcements..

PPL is a good example for investors not to always treat a share as a must buy when a fund manager comes on board ...eh?

edit

....and buying up (in a downtrend) "cheap" shares classed as "irrationally underpriced" during the panic of the 2008 bear...with the "logic" that when the GFC is over the share price will regain its "sanity" once again

[percy]

I remember PPL listing.From memory Feltex was listing at about the same time.Brokers liked Feltex and not Pumpkin Patch.
I was at Northlands Mall talking with some friends who are retailers and reps.All told me Pumpkin Patch was a very special retailer.And they were right.The bokers were wrong,but then the fizz went.Did not hold either.

[percy]

I remember PPL listing.From memory Feltex was listing at about the same time.Brokers liked Feltex and not Pumpkin Patch.
I was at Northlands Mall talking with some friends who are retailers and reps.All told me Pumpkin Patch was a very special retailer.And they were right.The bokers were wrong,but then the fizz went.Did not hold either.

[Jay]

Don't know why you do not just wait for the bottom, instead of buying on the way down, more upside and bigger profit if all goes to plan belg

[winner69]

Don't know why you do not just wait for the bottom, instead of buying on the way down, more upside and bigger profit if all goes to plan belg

But there won't be much volume at the bottom and who can guess the bottom anyway

And probably between 64 to the bottom the volumes will be lower than from the bottom to 64 ....but a lot higher after 64 is reached

That is the way pyramids are built.

[percy]

Yeah Right.!!
Reminded of that great quote;"In the Kingdom of the blind,the one-eyed man is king."

[Jay]

Yeah I know you don't know the bottom, but what meant is for it to bottom out and start to rise again, however it seems to have worked for belg so far (??)

[winner69]

Some of the old time investor/traders have written in their memoirs that trading cycles the time to buy is before the bottom is reached and before the top is reached.

They said they were not gurus and didn't know when bottoms and tops happened so it was better to take your position in advance

[winner69]

Yeah Right.!!
Reminded of that great quote;"In the Kingdom of the blind,the one-eyed man is king."

Erasmus apparently

take it you were aiming that little bit of wisdom at Jay

[percy]

Until otherwise proved, Jay certainly appears to be the one-eyed man in the Kingdom of the blind.!!!
As always time will tell.!

[winner69]

Don't think you need to worry about TA people here Belg .... they gave up a while ago and like Jay waiting for an uptrend if they really want to get back in.

Did you like the little diagram I hocked from an article ---- many astute investors do buy as the bottom approaches for the reason you explained. Generally volumes are higher on the way down then they are on the way up so they end up with the average price they want

Hopefully in the 50's this week

[macduffy]

Yes, a nice little diagram, winner, but it's only possible to draw in that "BUY" and "SELL" in the right positions after the trend has bent!

Personally, I'd wait for the reversal but in Pumpkin Patch's case, not even then.

[Jay]

Agree macduffy - all very well in hindsight.
They stuffed up 1 year OK a mistake they should have got it right by the second year, they didn't.

Phaedrus seemed to do all right buying on the up trend, plus a few others on here who mainly use Fundamentals but also use TA to time an entry, but we will not get into that discussion again.

Understand your method Belg, when you have a "few" to buy, just need to be confident that the tide will turn sooner rather than later, obviously you are.

[winner69]

Well, well. After having little buy depth and falling to 61 PPL is back up to 64 with buy depth showing quite a bit of support. Bit of a bugger that on a black morning today PPL was one of the few gainers. Ho hum ... patience is the name of the game.

You know a crash is coming when ppl is ne of the days stars on the bourse

Those Forbar punters are a pain eh

[percy]

Gee Whiz,I nearly brought up my breakfast when I checked the market late this morning.All mine were red,but PPL was green.
Thought I may concentrate on book selling for awhile.!!! lol.

[winner69]

Gee Whiz,I nearly brought up my breakfast when I checked the market late this morning.All mine were red,but PPL was green.
Thought I may concentrate on book selling for awhile.!!! lol.

At one stage PPL,PGW and HNZ were in the few that were in the green .... all are bargains eh

[percy]

Gee Whiz,I nearly brought up my breakfast when I checked the market late this morning.All mine were red,but PPL was green.
Thought I may concentrate on book selling for awhile.!!! lol.

[Hoop]

Has sentiment changed? Seems a bit early to be sure but a few indicators seem to be turning. This close to HY seems just a wee bit risky too me ... Thoughts Hoop?

edited: no word from the company about the on-going high NZD/AUD cross ... Not a pretty graph ...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NZDAUD=X&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

No doubt we'll get the full gory detail in the HY and how no matter what PPL's glorious management do the world just gangs up on them to deliver mediocrity in abundance.

Yeah...a couple of short/medium indicators are turning as the price has shot up.....the short term indicators are day by day they were positive but seem to be slowing and turning down again as today wasn't flash but who knows what tomorrow will bring...

PPL history sees each rally as less and takes a year from bottom to top ...if history repeats (Price oscillation doesn't vary) maybe the next top is about $1.10 if the 61c is the bottom...this assumes the 61c is the bottom and the PPL bear cycle is still operating and as each previous rally occurred during the NZX50 bull market rally (30% each time) you have to also assume the NZX50 will bottom out now at 4800 and rise to 6400 by the end of 2014 or thereabouts.....that will make the NZX50 bull 6 years old...

Also history sees a throw back after a rally off the bottom but it didn't test the bottom both times only the 2009 rally...so assuming 61c is the bottom, odds on you might get a second chance at say around the 63-64c or you can test your luck at 61c....

At the moment only a couple of medium term indicators have fired, the momentum and a more sensitive money flow indicator..PPL is still inside its down sloping price channel and the MA50 is still above the price(76.5c)..not really convincing huh??...Also the NZX50 is lookng a little dodgy at the moment as well

With reference to Deja vu ...all bets are off if the NZX50 situation looks to become different from the previous 2 PPL rallies.

Belg....my thoughts ..My investment style is different to yours........... I don't like to invest into too many stocks like PPL... its hard work and I'm getting lazy ......I rather invest the easy way, in uptrending stocks (the trend is your friend)..I already have enough excitement in my life by recently adding CNU to my kennel (already red ink!!)

[golden city]

time for some action.., got a few in at 61c

[Leftfield]

time for some action.., got a few in at 61c

Phew you are very brave… I agree with Hoop's thoughts as per his last para in #919.
Good Luck !!

[winner69]

There's a sensitivity table in the last report

10% adverse change in currency impacts p&l by 1.1 mill (down)

10% favourable impacts p&l by 0.2 mill (up)

Sort of suggests they have some hedging in place but details not provided

[golden city]

got a few more at 64c., for long term investment. a few cents is ok..

[golden city]

i am more confidence at a 12-18 months time frame., rather than catch the shark at deep sea.., which is either too dangerous or you won't catch it at all

[golden city]

it looks stall at 64c.., with some nice volume comming.., could be a up tick after annoucement

[JayRiggs]

Not expecting it to happen, but it would be nice if they re-introduce dividends at the next announcement.

[golden city]

PPL starting to come back..with australia retail sales picking up

[Blendy]

appreciate the comments on this thread - let's see how next week's HY plays out...

[biker]

Good to see a bit of volume today at 69c.
The R/R looked reasonable at 65c and I got back in at that level.
Not holding my breath short term, but looking for much better things further out.

[winner69]

Belg, I have no idea how they are doing at the moment

But the seaweed (graduated from tea leaves) points to it all being good.

Even if not so good the hyped up commentary from the girls will be enough to send the shareprice into the 80s

That be good eh

[winner69]

Have faith belg ....they still in profit ...even if it is only $106,000

And the girls did a great job hyping up the future .....

......but ruined it when the Chairman (?) insisted they add this little bit - While the company is only just entering the winter sales season, given current known factors and assuming there is no material improvement in underlying conditions, on balance the company believes there to be more downside risk than upside potential for earnings for the remainder of the year.

But the hype and potential will protect the share price ...in the 70s today methinks

[winner69]

They making a big deal about a significant increase in shareholder funds ...good eh

Not from making profits alas - but a change in fortune in the hedging reserves which were 3.9m favourable this year v 6.7m negative last year.

Shareholder funds (Book Value) back to 55m even though 59m of capital has been put in over the years.

[percy]

Have faith belg ....they still in profit ...even if it is only $106,000

And the girls did a great job hyping up the future .....

......but ruined it when the Chairman (?) insisted they add this little bit - While the company is only just entering the winter sales season, given current known factors and assuming there is no material improvement in underlying conditions, on balance the company believes there to be more downside risk than upside potential for earnings for the remainder of the year.

But the hype and potential will protect the share price ...in the 70s today methinks

Me thinks you must be very brave.!!!!! lol.

[winner69]

Me thinks you must be very brave.!!!!! lol.

Not in at the moment - belg beat me to all the shares on offer

Oops .....do I see it back to 60 cents

Market cap $100m v much vaunted and improved book value of $55m

[winner69]

Rod must be getting a little peeved with PPL

He not used to working with losers

[Silverlight]

Really disappointing result. The report was horribly written, the term "supply chain disruptions" was stated eight times! Mention it once, and move on.

However, they did note, international online sales were up 24% (excluding Ireland), I wonder how much Ireland makes up of there international sales.

[golden city]

at 58c.., wonder if it is a good price to entry

[JayRiggs]

Yeah supply chain disruptions are their #1 excuse.
I want to know what Mr Rod Duke is contributing to the board. Was he brought on to improve supply chain operations? It's been getting worse!

[winner69]

Really disappointing result. The report was horribly written, the term "supply chain disruptions" was stated eight times! Mention it once, and move on.

However, they did note, international online sales were up 24% (excluding Ireland), I wonder how much Ireland makes up of there international sales.

yes not the best piece of writing. Maybe indicates something

Methinks they see shareholders as an unnecessary burden. Maybe put punters out of their misery and find $100m to take it private

Word clouds sometimes good to see what they were trying to say

Not many soothing words in this announcement