PRC Pike River Coal

[Hoop]

Agreed, it doesn't make much of a difference - I guess the only reason we're discussing it is that the approx 4 c difference in the June 09 closing high is relevant at the moment with respect to the basic horizontal S/R line - but it was nit-picky of me. It will be a moot point once we get a proper breakout, and I'm sure the signals on your chart are of more interest anyway - I like the OBV, it just makes sense!

No Joe it wasn't nit - picky. It was a valid comment. Ok.. PRC had other buy signals pinging off since July so in this case the small errors weren't serious enough....but what if..

[Logen Ninefingers]

The options have dropped today but I expect them to be quite volatile in the short-term now....they've dipped because the run to $1.25 and above has stalled, but the consolidation around $1.20 is positive, based on the news that 1,000 tonnes has been put through the system and the system in working.
I'd expect more significant news will follow soon regarding production ramp-up, third shipment, coal extraction rates etc, and then the SP should move forward again, and then suddenly the options are going to be very attractive.

[patrick]

LN And others

Assume the next announcement is good news and shares are $1.30 in two weeks time what are the Options worth?
Thanks

Disc; hold 450,000+

[Corporate]

anyone know what he market cap was when PIKE hit $2.50?? Or alternately how many shares have been issued since then?

[JoeBlogs]

patrick, what they're worth is pretty subjective, but given current sentiment I'd imagine they would trade somewhere around the 25 c mark.

Either way, I think you're sitting on a potential gold... I mean, coal mine! I'm looking to sell mine for 70 cents at some point........ What? A man can dream can't he?

[Hoop]

LN And others

Assume the next announcement is good news and shares are $1.30 in two weeks time what are the Options worth?
Thanks

Disc; hold 450,000+

Hi Patrick ....

In working out the theoretical value as of close today ...I am ignoring the shaken down closing price of 16c by some idiot and assume 18cents as there are buyers willing to pay that.
If the variable factors remain similar as of today price at 18cents... volatility factor at 55% Interest rate factor I assume at 4% then using the Black Scholes method the PRCOA will be theoretically worth 23.0cents if the PRC heads reach $1.30 in 2 weeks.

Time is the enemy with PRCOA... if it takes 4 weeks from today instead of 2 weeks for the PRC heads to reach $1.30 then the PRCOA will be worth 22.2cents ...0.8 cents less.

Warning Note.
What they are theoretically worth may not be what the market thinks they're worth and Mr Market is always right. The BS method has limitations as have all mathematical models as they do not allow for sudden shifts in shareprice or other factors such as sudden change in demand.

Hope this post has helped
Hoop

[patrick]

HOOP
Thanks

[JoeBlogs]

Warning Note.
What they are theoretically worth may not be what the market thinks they're worth and Mr Market is always right. The BS method has limitations as have all mathematical models as they do not allow for sudden shifts in shareprice or other factors such as sudden change in demand.


That's the key point IMO, while I tend to keep an eye on the BS based valuation, I don't think it's your best tool for a speculative stock like PRC. In saying that, as PRC is becoming less speculative, perhaps
the market will be guided more by BS valuation? I would almost gaurantee you would get buyers at 25 c under the proposed situation, just as we had 20 c at the start of this week - although I doubt you'd sell 450,000 straight away.

[Pete]

Does anyone know what this after market announcement is all about?

http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/PRC/announcements/4234050/NZX-Market-Supervision-Decision-PRC-Waiver-Rule-9-2-1

[peat]

I'm tired but I think it means
SFP is by virtue of its agreement with NZOG to have first dibs on its PRC shares , a related party to PRC.
hence the coal offtake agreement that PRC has with SFP is a related party transaction of such size (over the life of the mine) that it should be approved by PRC shareholders.

this waives that requirement.

[Monkey Poms]

f) Similar waivers were granted by NZXMS to Oyster Bay Marlborough Vineyards Limited (“OBV”) in 2004, 2005 and 2006 and to Speirs Group Limited on 13 August 2004.

d) The price negotiations will involve intense and complex commercial negotiations, the outcome of which are matters of commercial sensitivity and confidence to PRC. Therefore, PRC considers that the process of such negotiations should not be made public other than in the general terms outlined in any disclosure document.



Does anyone know what this after market announcement is all about?

http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/PRC/announcements/4234050/NZX-Market-Supervision-Decision-PRC-Waiver-Rule-9-2-1

Pete, first impression is that Pike and NZO are about to be stuffed by the Indians. You can't blame them for negotiating the best deal for themselves. At a guess, some sort of slip up has been made under Gordon's reign. The independent directors will have to sort it out. It now revolves around the price NZO and the two Indian companies pay to Pike for future coal production.

I have always understood Pike River coal to be of a superior quality to the Australian Queensland coking coals, and it would command a premium over the benchmark price. How much over the benchmark ? Independent directors have to act in the best interest of Pike River Coal shareholders.

When the directors devise a formula for coal pricing, to submit to the NZX, as requested, it should not be in the interest of the two Indian company's or NZO, who, between them, have a deal to purchase ALL coal from Pike. If the independent directors do not understand why Pike coal should command a premium then they need to take some expert advice to find out.

If the directors of NZO & PRC. DO KNOW the reason why OUR coal should be able to command a premium, (the ability to sweeten inferior coals), and they don't obtain a premium then we are being sold short.
For Pike to ask NZX for a waiver and comparing it to similar waivers as per attachment regarding grapes is an absolute joke, (whoever thought that one up).
We are talking about coal aren't we, not grapes. The Indians could be laughing all the way to the bank at the expense of all of the other Pike shareholders.

The truth is if PRC achieve the maximum price on the world market, NZO would not have the ability to make a profit from their agreement to purchase coal from Pike.
Confidentiality regarding sensitivity regarding price negotiations would only reduce the price of Pike’s coal. Bring it out into the open. Due to the quality of OUR coal, I am sure there are companies who would like to offer a premium over the Australian benchmark price. They won’t be able to if it is a closed shop.

It seems that Gordon could not have understood the true value of OUR coal.

If Pike do not achieve a premium selling price above Queensland hard coking coal prices the main beneficiaries of Pike’s hard won coal may NOT be Pike’s shareholders. Losses of future revenue could amount to tens of millions of dollars!

Monkey Poms.

Disclosure:
Monkey Poms group of investors as well as my New Zealand cousin hold about 2.5% of NZO total shareholding of the company, and we do not agree with what they seem to be trying to do here.

Good to get that lot off my chest. Apart from all that, happy with the hydro mining so far. Lets ramp up and get back to 7 day working.

[Baddarcy]

Does anyone know what this after market announcement is all about?

http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/PRC/announcements/4234050/NZX-Market-Supervision-Decision-PRC-Waiver-Rule-9-2-1

I am interested in why SPF have been picked out specifically in the announcement, why not Gujarat as well.... Why would PRC bother...unless they were about to sell some coal to SPF...Third shipment anyone?

[sideline]

I am interested in why SPF have been picked out specifically in the announcement, why not Gujarat as well.... Why would PRC bother...unless they were about to sell some coal to SPF...Third shipment anyone?

What's the fuss about ???
As I understand it the waiver only relates to the fact that special (possibly frequent) shareholder meetings to seek approval for the price negotiations would be to cumbersome. I'am sure there will be one coming for Gujarat as well

[JoeBlogs]

Yes I agree, this is standard practice - name me one coal mining company where the shareholders get together and decide what price to charge? The only difference here is that negotiations are with a related party, where market price is not obvious (due mainly to differences in quality as MP pointed out). In order for NZX to approve this they have to be satisfied that these negotiations will be carried out in such a way that they are effectively 'arms length'.

[Hoop]

f) Similar waivers were granted by NZXMS to Oyster Bay Marlborough Vineyards Limited (“OBV”) in 2004, 2005 and 2006 and to Speirs Group Limited on 13 August 2004.

d) The price negotiations will involve intense and complex commercial negotiations, the outcome of which are matters of commercial sensitivity and confidence to PRC. Therefore, PRC considers that the process of such negotiations should not be made public other than in the general terms outlined in any disclosure document.




Pete, first impression is that Pike and NZO are about to be stuffed by the Indians. You can't blame them for negotiating the best deal for themselves. At a guess, some sort of slip up has been made under Gordon's reign. The independent directors will have to sort it out. It now revolves around the price NZO and the two Indian companies pay to Pike for future coal production............

Thanks MP I have learnt a lot from your post...I was another one that couldn't fully understand the announcement...its much clearer now.

Hmmm.....NZO isn't exactly the white knight I thought it was..

[mouse]

Also many thanks Monkey Poms. NZO has had to dig out PRC, they now seem to be also taking their pound of flesh as well. Hopefully us shareholders will not see a $2.00 price and promptly sell overseas. Although the temptation is of course there. Hope NZO drill dry wells until they treat PRC sharholders better!!!

Thanks MP I have learnt a lot from your post...I was another one that couldn't fully understand the announcement...its much clearer now.

Hmmm.....NZO isn't exactly the white knight I thought it was..

[BigBob]

Hmmm.....NZO isn't exactly the white knight I thought it was..

That's business... NZO has to act in the best interest of its shareholders....

[JoeBlogs]

You got it BigBob - this is essentially just a cost of finance

[blockhead]

And as a holder of just as many NZO as PRC I'm happy either way !!

[Baddarcy]

Yes I agree, this is standard practice - name me one coal mining company where the shareholders get together and decide what price to charge? The only difference here is that negotiations are with a related party, where market price is not obvious (due mainly to differences in quality as MP pointed out). In order for NZX to approve this they have to be satisfied that these negotiations will be carried out in such a way that they are effectively 'arms length'.

Yes but why just SPF? Why not NZO and Gujarat also, they are both in the same boat, Substantial Shareholders and potential (NZO) or actual (Gujarat) recipients of Pike coal.

[JoeBlogs]

Hasn't coal already been going to Gujarat? I'd imagine this has already been coverd for them.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Little dip today on the back of a little dip in the US markets; I would have thought a bit of an opportunity to buy some more PRC and PRCOA's because the days of low priced shares in PRC are surely numbered.

[JoeBlogs]

LN, I think you'll see the price of both drift lower over the next couple of weeks untill they get back to us with production/shipment updates. I'd be suprised if the heads got below 110, but their could be some cheap options to be had, maybe round the 16c mark?

Of course, now that I've made this prediction, the price should shoot right up! You can thank me later.

[Hoop]

LN, I think you'll see the price of both drift lower over the next couple of weeks untill they get back to us with production/shipment updates. I'd be suprised if the heads got below 110, but their could be some cheap options to be had, maybe round the 16c mark?

Of course, now that I've made this prediction, the price should shoot right up! You can thank me later.

Breaking 118 primary support may happen in which case it would cause a Bull trap (seems to be a weak support line) but breaking the 115c support line will take huge selling pressure. This is a very strong level...looking at the market depth confirms it.
I expect a bounce back up off either these two support levels......

Of course, now that I've made this prediction, the price should shoot right down to 110 then bounce.. JB you can thank me later for helping your prediction come true.

[Monkey Poms]

And as a holder of just as many NZO as PRC I'm happy either way !!

Hi BIockhead. Just like you I have shares in both. if your directors do not achieve a premium for our coal,
I think we should buy shares in the Indians.

Monkey Poms.

[Monkey Poms]

You got it BigBob - this is essentially just a cost of finance

Hi Joe, If we don't get a premium others will benefit over and above any interest charges Pike will have to pay.
I do realise Pike are negotiating from a weak position at the moment.
Hope the options come good then with $60 million in the bank the boot will be on the other foot.

Monkey Poms.

[JoeBlogs]

Hi MP, I was refering to the coal offtake agreement with NZO, what I mean is any losses on what PRC could have made by selling that coal on market are essentially a finance cost as this is part of the agreement required when NZO took over the financing initially provided by Liberty Harbour.

Like you, I would be pretty concerned if we didn't get a premium over the Queensland benchmark for the base price to reflect the quality of the coal - I've seen nothing to suggest we won't

[JoeBlogs]

Of course, now that I've made this prediction, the price should shoot right down to 110 then bounce.. JB you can thank me later for helping your prediction come true.

I'd much rather be wrong ;-) Hopefully 115 will hold!

[Baddarcy]

Mostly old news but some interesting comments from Craigs about their predictions for coal prices!!

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/131918/renewed-vigour-miners

[Baddarcy]

hmmm bloody Germans :-)

Pike River Coal Ltd. (PRC NZ) dropped 0.8 percent to NZ$1.18. The company, which operates a mine on New Zealand’s South Island, was downgraded to “hold” from “buy” at Deutsche Bank AG.

[temptation]

Have we had any confirmation that Lyttleton will be able to handle the extra million tons of coal per year when full production is achieved? We know that there has been significant damage to the wharves.

[manxman]

PRC has priority over Solid Energy according to the announced agreement on the coal route. And there seems to be plenty of spare time at the coal berth in Lyttelton anyway. Keep watching http://www.lpc.co.nz/RP.jasc?Page=N225P2 They seem to be able to load a Panamax in under 72 hours, even with the quake damage. Nice to be worrying about having too much coal though.

Shipping forecast shows no coal ships for the rest of the month.

[whirly]

What does the massive volumes of shares this week say for the TA guys?

Thanks
Whirly

[swissboy]

Part of my daily check is NZ Rail Track to see if any movement is due out at Ikamatua.
No luck so far beggs the question of how large are the stacks at the Coal seperation plant and at the railhead????

[gtl1bero]

FORECAST: PRC: PIKE RIVER REVISES PRODUCTION FORECAST

Pike River Coal advises that it has developed a revised production forecast
for FY 2010-2011 based on a comprehensive review of a number of key issues
related to the mine's operation.

Chief Executive Peter Whittall says the revision is primarily the result of
slower than expected progress in developing underground roadways which has
impacted forecast production in the period to June 2011.

"Slower roadway development to date and lower forecast development in the
next few months ahead of the introduction of the second ABM20 continuous
mining machine and an upgrade to one of the current machines, will result in
some interruptions to hydro production in the new year.

"This will result in a couple of months of previously scheduled high
production in May and June slipping into the following financial year.

"In addition, the revision takes into account the expected ramp-up of the
hydro-mining system which, after several weeks of experience, we are now more
familiar with. The mine plan has also been revised to fall within the
parameters of the surface environmental consents. This has resulted in
re-orienting one of the extraction areas to increase coal recovery, but adds
some delay in reaching it."

The new production forecast falls in the range of between 320,000 - 360,000
tonnes of saleable coal to June 2011 with the most likely expectation
somewhere in the middle of this range".

Peter Whittall says he is very pleased with the way commissioning of the
hydro monitor system has gone and that it continues to progress well.

"We expect to achieve full hydro system capacity in the June 2011 quarter at
a production rate of 60,000 tonnes of saleable coal per month and, from that
point, continue to ramp up the rate of hydro production to a steady state by
the December 2011 quarter when we expect average monthly production volumes
of 80,000 tonnes going forward" he says.

"The company is evaluating the impact of the changed production rates on the
coal stockpile, sales expectations and timing and size of specific sales to
its customers."

Pike River is also evaluating revised funding requirements, including
repayment of the New Zealand Oil & Gas short-term facility due in December.
Discussions are underway with various parties, with further announcements
expected during November 2010, which will include details of the financial
impact of these developments.

"This remains a great project, the scale of which is as we have always
planned," says Mr Whittall.

"But it hasn't been without its problems, most recently machinery related. We
remain confident, however, about our eventual annual production rates."

Following his recent appointment as CEO, Mr Whittall has now expanded the
role of the company's Operations Manager Doug White to Mine General Manager
to cover all mine site activities.

"With over 30 years experience in the mining industry, Doug will provide
excellent leadership at the mine site," says Mr Whittall.

[freddy]

. Nice to be worrying about having too much coal though.

A Tui billboard if ever I saw one.....

[JoeBlogs]

Seems to be quite a lot of selling pressure on this news - not quite sure what the market was expecting? The FY11 forecast is a little lower than I'd hoped, but there are no major changes to the game plan. 80,000 tonnes per month still expected in the latter half of 2011 as I'd expected.

[Ian]

Well the market didn't like the news – personally I didn’t think it was as bad as the market has just priced in. The long term forcast prodcution rate is still around the 80,000 tons per month which is what drives the long term value of PRC.

[Snow Leopard]

"Pike River is also evaluating revised funding requirements, including
repayment of the New Zealand Oil & Gas short-term facility due in December.
Discussions are underway with various parties, with further announcements
expected during November 2010, which will include details of the financial
impact of these developments"

Always goes well with the punters

regards
Paper Tiger

[RenHoek]

Seems to be quite a lot of selling pressure on this news - not quite sure what the market was expecting?

Well... given this statement....


"We expect to achieve full hydro system capacity in the June 2011 quarter at
a production rate of 60,000 tonnes of saleable coal per month and, from that
point, continue to ramp up the rate of hydro production to a steady state by
the December 2011 quarter when we expect average monthly production volumes
of 80,000 tonnes going forward" he says.

Its bad news for the options right?

[Bilo]

Is the notice a touch ambiguous about hydro mining tonnage and total output? Is the roadway tonnage included?

[friedegg]

april for the options?RIP options

[Bilo]

With $100M sales in the year I would expect the options to be in the money. The question is by how much.

[Beagle]

I called it the other day when PRC jumped up 6 cents to 1.22 or absolutly no material new information and that rally was overdone and I'm glad I sold.

Frankly this stock just continues to disappoint and struggle for cash flow which is the life blood of any company. They have made so many promises and consistently failed to deliver I can't help but speculate that they should be a sub $1 share until they can prove they can extract the reserves in a timely manner. Yet another cash issue just around the corner ? What price will NZO extract fro on-going support this time ?

Could the options be potentially worthless as there appears little chance the company will have time to prove extraction rates supportive of a price greater than $1.25 by next April ?

Gosh I know none of those questions or comments will win me friends on this thread but I'm a realist through and through and as commented previously, at least NZO have a proven record of being able to extract reserves in a timely manner and a rock solid balance sheet. I hope David Salisbury really makes PRC pay properly and on an arms length commerical basis for the further financial support their on-going problem child clearly continues to badly need.

Disclosure - Hold NZO shares, zero PRC shares or options.

[whirly]

What does the massive volumes of shares this week say for the TA guys?

Thanks
Whirly

Okay I think I know now. :-(

[friedegg]

well theres 6 months left to expiry,so thats six montjhs of expecting no further delays or bad news from prc?its like expecting the black caps to win a gameof cricket

[bung5]

if anyone wasn't expecting this news they must of had their head in the sand. Only 40,000 tonnes has been shipped this year , we already know this. another 300,000 until mid next year was to be expected

[Beagle]

Okay I think I know now. :-(

I think this latest disappointing release makes a mokery of any attempt to apply technical analysis and charting theory to this stock. Stick to the fundamentals.

[bung5]

well theres 6 months left to expiry,so thats six montjhs of expecting no further delays or bad news from prc?its like expecting the black caps to win a gameof cricket

well expect another dip when the news about impact of putting the extra funding facility in place comes out

[Awamoa]

The workers all get a $7500 bonus.We get a 10 cent drop in share value.Go figure?

[whirly]

I think this latest disappointing release makes a mokery of any attempt to apply technical analysis and charting theory to this stock. Stick to the fundamentals.

I suspect the TA guys will now point out the plummeting OBV last week. Thats what I was alluding too.

[swissboy]

So why did they announce only 8 days ago that the great milestone of 1000T extracted by Hydro-mining has been achieved?? and the boys will get most of their bonuses.
Do we think they didn't know then that they would actually need to revise the whole timetable.

[dsurf]

Looking on the bright side - We cannot say we are not being informed!

[JoeBlogs]

So why did they announce only 8 days ago that the great milestone of 1000T extracted by Hydro-mining has been achieved?? and the boys will get most of their bonuses.
Do we think they didn't know then that they would actually need to revise the whole timetable.

We've known for a long time that the production forecast was going to be revised, and all signs pointed to somewhere around what we've just seen.

Good to see some more realistic PR than the propaganda than we're used to, I think PW is onto it.

[JoeBlogs]

I suspect the TA guys will now point out the plummeting OBV last week. Thats what I was alluding too.

??? All that volume was on increasing price, so would cause OBV to rise. Looked at by itself, the high volume on rising prices last week was bullish. Conversely, the plumet this morning is on week volume, so doesn't mean a hell of a lot at this stage. I'll be looking at the close today, would expect somewhere around the 115 mark.

[Hoop]

I think this latest disappointing release makes a mokery of any attempt to apply technical analysis and charting theory to this stock. Stick to the fundamentals.

I advise you to put on your armour Roger :D:D:D:D:D ..Phaedrus :scared::scared::scared::scared: will be after you ..especially after that statement...
.


I suspect the TA guys will now point out the plummeting OBV last week. Thats what I was alluding too.
.


Yep that Tuesday's 12 October TA money flow indicator warning sign (OBV is one)..deafening silence after your orginal post said it all..eh.

[whirly]

??? All that volume was on increasing price, so would cause OBV to rise. Looked at by itself, the high volume on rising prices last week was bullish. Conversely, the plumet this morning is on week volume, so doesn't mean a hell of a lot at this stage. I'll be looking at the close today, would expect somewhere around the 115 mark.

http://i867.photobucket.com/albums/ab238/whirlynz/y_prcnz_price_daily_and_on_balance_volume___daily1 0feb10_to_26oct10.png

Sorry been trying to post a chart with no success. Someone else might. But anyway too late ...the event was last week!

HaNG on worked it out in glorious technicolor.

[Hoop]

Breaking 118 primary support may happen in which case it would cause a Bull trap (seems to be a weak support line) but breaking the 115c support line will take huge selling pressure. This is a very strong level...looking at the market depth confirms it.
I expect a bounce back up off either these two support levels......

Of course, now that I've made this prediction, the price should shoot right down to 110 then bounce.. JB you can thank me later for helping your prediction come true.

ATM 108 down 10 :p:p:p:p:p:p:p:p:p:p


??? All that volume was on increasing price, so would cause OBV to rise. Looked at by itself, the high volume on rising prices last week was bullish. Conversely, the plumet this morning is on week volume, so doesn't mean a hell of a lot at this stage. I'll be looking at the close today, would expect somewhere around the 115 mark.

JB after Mondays 11Oct gap up to 123 came Tuesdays big volume at 119 (the low for the day) this was -ve OBV big enough to create a sell signal
P will show you with his chart when he's ready to do so (probably presently arming up for an attack on the anti TA brigade) ...or you could ask him nicely :) to post one now if you like..he might oblige

[whirly]

I advise you to put on your armour Roger :D:D:D:D:D ..Phaedrus :scared::scared::scared::scared: will be after you ..especially after that statement...
.


.


Yep that Tuesday's 12 October TA money flow indicator warning sign (OBV is one)..deafening silence after your orginal post said it all..eh.

Maybe too scared to predict a fall when all else seemed positive.

[JoeBlogs]

http://i867.photobucket.com/albums/ab238/whirlynz/y_prcnz_price_daily_and_on_balance_volume___daily1 0feb10_to_26oct10.png

Sorry been trying to post a chart with no success. Someone else might. But anyway too late ...the event was last week!

HaNG on worked it out in glorious technicolor.

Ah right, now I see what you're talking about. OBV predicts another one eh, almost on par with Paul the octopus!

[Hoop]

Maybe too scared to predict a fall when all else seemed positive.

Yep I was in that scared category ....The PRCOA never confirmed it (OBV was still rising) kinda looked like an insto crossing so I was unsure what to do. He who hesitates is lost...Hoop lost.
My Portfolio took a hit today..not the first time and wont be the last either.

[whirly]

Yep I was in that scared category ....The PRCOA never confirmed it (OBV was still rising) kinda looked like an insto crossing so I was unsure what to do. He who hesitates is lost...Hoop lost.
My Portfolio took a hit today..not the first time and wont be the last either.

Well I shoulda trusted my own instincts cos Whirly lost too. However I just picked up some more (with tight as stops) as my PRC holding is still in positive territory and medium term sp still trending north.

[bull....]

T/A would have had you selling around 1.2 and above , range is 85 - 1.20 in my books.

[whirly]

T/A would have had you selling around 1.2 and above , range is 85 - 1.20 in my books.

Bull...Can you explain further please. OBV was all I saw on my charts.

[Beagle]

I advise you to put on your armour Roger :D:D:D:D:D ..Phaedrus :scared::scared::scared::scared: will be after you ..especially after that statement...

Yep that Tuesday's 12 October TA money flow indicator warning sign (OBV is one)..deafening silence after your orginal post said it all..eh.

Full body armour on, 50 cal machine gun at the ready LOL.:cool:

[bull....]

Bull...Can you explain further please. OBV was all I saw on my charts.

Whirly while indicators have there place , dont rely on one single one.
For instance in this case I use no indicator at all to tell me when to sell , just use the parameters of the trading range and let the market tell you what to do.
eg The trading range was 85 - 1.20 on my books as price nears 1.20 you need to become viligant just as if price was nearing 85. the market gave you 2 warnings last week to watch out these were when it tried to break above 1.2 but closed below 1.2 this is big warning bells as sellers far out weighed buyers at these levels. So if you trade based on these signals the trading range remains valid until price breaches 1.2 at some stage but based on todays announcement it looks like it maybe some time away. Now with trading range dont play again now until price reaches 85 or breaks 1.2 as likely your spend who knows how long being chopped around in the range going bananas.
Of course if you long term investor trading ranges may be of little interest to you as you believe in 5 - 10 yrs the price will be signifcant higher .... you hope

[whirly]

Whirly while indicators have there place , dont rely on one single one.
For instance in this case I use no indicator at all to tell me when to sell , just use the parameters of the trading range and let the market tell you what to do.
eg The trading range was 85 - 1.20 on my books as price nears 1.20 you need to become viligant just as if price was nearing 85. the market gave you 2 warnings last week to watch out these were when it tried to break above 1.2 but closed below 1.2 this is big warning bells as sellers far out weighed buyers at these levels. So if you trade based on these signals the trading range remains valid until price breaches 1.2 at some stage but based on todays announcement it looks like it maybe some time away. Now with trading range dont play again now until price reaches 85 or breaks 1.2 as likely your spend who knows how long being chopped around in the range going bananas.
Of course if you long term investor trading ranges may be of little interest to you as you believe in 5 - 10 yrs the price will be signifcant higher .... you hope

Thanks Bull... that's a pretty broad range though especially with the likelihood of becoming a big producer now closer. Good points though re:the two failed attempts over 120. Because my trading capital is not large I try not to buy in and out too often as profits would be eroded by trading fees. Hence I held.

[Beagle]

Another rights issue at 75 cents just around the corner ? (double layer flak jacket on)

[bull....]

Whirly if they were to become a big producer soon the price would be significantly higher than now , coal stocks have boomed world wide and pike launguishes with a chain and ball of incompetence holding it back.
I do not believe the price will go significantly higher until they prove they can mine the stuff but will keep it on my watchlist in eternal hope.

[geezy]

Prc strikes again!

[Logen Ninefingers]

I managed to off-load some worthless options on some mug!!! Yeehaaa!!!!!

That was a great announcement about the hydro-mining being a success - everyone in the circle of trust made a poultice no doubt, and all the schmucks who've been trying to get info by snooping around the mine-site, & interogating the patrons at the Blackball Pub, and pumping up each others tyres of the Sharetrader site got stuffed like a Christmas goose when the fact that 1001 other important targets are going to be missed was unveiled. Let's all remember: don't buy houses or put your money in the bank - support wonderful companies like PRC who need your capital to grow NZ's economy. It's a win / win equation.

That's Pike stuffed to at least mid-year next year, because anything they produce between now and then - even if they make their targets (and they've never hit a target yet) - has and will underwhelm the market.

[Ian]

I see Goldman Sachs has a target price of $1.50 updated today on the Pike website

Goldman Sachs JBWere updated research on 19 October 2010 with a 12 month price target of NZ$1.50 and maintained its BUY recommendation. Contact person matthew.henry@gsjbw.com

[blockhead]

Blockies hatful of options now require a very small hat for storage, see some cheeky buggar has a buy order in for 500,000 @ 02c

[RenHoek]

Hi guys.

So I have some thoughts / questions about the options (and sp's)
If someone could comment that would be great, as I'm not sure on all this.

I see that there are currently 64,281,875 options.

If the PRC share price is above $1.25 on 24/04/11, ( eg $1.28), then people will exercise the options and buy shares.
And pike will stand to gain 64,281,875 x $1.25 ~= 80million dollars.

If the price is below $1.25 (eg $1.15 ), then people will not exercise the options.
And pike gets nothing.

So it is INCREDIBLY important for pike to have the share price be over $1.25 on 24/04/11. $80 million important.

Given that pike have the ability to sway the price of the SP's so much (with which information they release and when), can we not expect some really "good" news to come out sometime at the start of April 2011?
Which will push the SP's over the magic price of $1.25 on 24/04/11.

With that in mind, it seems a good bet to buy PRC SP's now, with the expectation that they will be worth over $1.25 on 24/04/11. ( ~%16 gain in 6 months )

The OA's are a different matter.
Because given the current OA price.... The SP's need to be worth over $1.40 on 24/04/11 just to break even on OA's.
I'd rather take the safer $1.07 -> $1.40, ~32% gain on the SP, if I was hoping for that kind of rise?

So SP's look like a good buy atm. OA's do not.

Thanks all.
Ren


ps: I hope this post has not come at a bad time given the sobering price of the oa's at the moment!?

[Logen Ninefingers]

I see Goldman Sachs has a target price of $1.50 updated today on the Pike website

Goldman Sachs JBWere updated research on 19 October 2010 with a 12 month price target of NZ$1.50 and maintained its BUY recommendation. Contact person matthew.henry@gsjbw.com

Mathew Henry can chuck some of his own money into it if he likes......

[Logen Ninefingers]

Hi guys.

So I have some thoughts / questions about the options (and sp's)
If someone could comment that would be great, as I'm not sure on all this.

I see that there are currently 64,281,875 options.

If the PRC share price is above $1.25 on 24/04/11, ( eg $1.28), then people will exercise the options and buy shares.
And pike will stand to gain 64,281,875 x $1.25 ~= 80million dollars.

If the price is below $1.25 (eg $1.15 ), then people will not exercise the options.
And pike gets nothing.

So it is INCREDIBLY important for pike to have the share price be over $1.25 on 24/04/11. $80 million important.

Given that pike have the ability to sway the price of the SP's so much (with which information they release and when), can we not expect some really "good" news to come out sometime at the start of April 2011?
Which will push the SP's over the magic price of $1.25 on 24/04/11.

With that in mind, it seems a good bet to buy PRC SP's now, with the expectation that they will be worth over $1.25 on 24/04/11. ( ~%16 gain in 6 months )

The OA's are a different matter.
Because given the current OA price.... The SP's need to be worth over $1.40 on 24/04/11 just to break even on OA's.
I'd rather take the safer $1.07 -> $1.40, ~32% gain on the SP, if I was hoping for that kind of rise?

So SP's look like a good buy atm. OA's do not.

Thanks all.
Ren


ps: I hope this post has not come at a bad time given the sobering price of the oa's at the moment!?

Yeah, they might pump out some good news but really the only news that matters now that hydro-mining is up and running is tonnes per annum. It might be great that stoat kills rates are up or they announce mining will start on the deeper seam in the year 2065, but the markets had enough of this 'boy who cried wolf' stuff.

[JoeBlogs]

I'm not sure why they've changed the date, but that JBWere research was on there yesterday when I looked, think the date was 16th? Maybe they've just updated some minor detail.

[yabster]

Have to agree I think people with large option holdings were looking ok last week now even at an option price of 12.5 cents they don't look attractive as 1.375 is along way off now and hard to see it getting there before exercise time. On the cards the options will finish out of the money now. I have a few options but only the ones that came with the rights issue - so just a small holding.

[RenHoek]

I'm not sure why they've changed the date, but that JBWere research was on there yesterday when I looked, think the date was 16th? Maybe they've just updated some minor detail.

Well.. not sure about the date. But its a minor thing.
I'm more curious about Pikes massive financial incentive to have the options exercised.

Wow... and over the 10mins it took me to write that last post. The OA's have fallen off a cliff face....

[Beagle]

I managed to off-load some worthless options on some mug!!! Yeehaaa!!!!!

That was a great announcement about the hydro-mining being a success - everyone in the circle of trust made a poultice no doubt, and all the schmucks who've been trying to get info by snooping around the mine-site, & interogating the patrons at the Blackball Pub, and pumping up each others tyres of the Sharetrader site got stuffed like a Christmas goose when the fact that 1001 other important targets are going to be missed was unveiled. Let's all remember: don't buy houses or put your money in the bank - support wonderful companies like PRC who need your capital to grow NZ's economy. It's a win / win equation.

That's Pike stuffed to at least mid-year next year, because anything they produce between now and then - even if they make their targets (and they've never hit a target yet) - has and will underwhelm the market.

Great post mate, couldn't agree more. I called this puppy a sell the other day at $1.22 and still see it that way at $1.06 at the minute. There's so many missed targets, so many boy who cried wolf's, so much mis-management, WTF is the company doing paying staff bonus's of $7,500 when the company is on its knees yet again for more funding, you just have to wonder how staff and shareholders interests seem to be so at odds with each other...remind me again, who owns the mine or is this company a charity for the poor underground workers who should be so lucky due to shareholders capital to have a job ?

This company is worthless without NZO's ongoing tireless support which has to beg the question why not own the dog rather than its tail ? frankly I'm wondering if I should own either given that if PRC can't ever make its targets what effect on NZO's share price ?

[JoeBlogs]

Wow... and over the 10mins it took me to write that last post. The OA's have fallen off a cliff face....

People are very touchy with these, and rightly so in the current situation. They'll settle down over the next few days. I agree that things are looking a lot less rosey now though.

[JoeBlogs]

I'd like to see someone sell 1 option @ the current highest offer at 3.1c.

That'd make the cheeky bugger with that offer think twice next time. :D

Haha, yeah that would be funny eh, 30 bucks brokerage for a 3 c transaction!

[Pete]

My view is that the annoucment this morning did have a positive side.

These new production estimates are based on actual hydro mining results and roadway development, rather than previous very hopefull guesses.

I think Peter W appears a lot more trustworthy than previous management, and 320,000 tons by June should be around $100M revenue...

[bull....]

My view is that the annoucment this morning did have a positive side.

These new production estimates are based on actual hydro mining results and roadway development, rather than previous very hopefull guesses.

I think Peter W appears a lot more trustworthy than previous management, and 320,000 tons by June should be around $100M revenue...

Well if he wants some runs on the board he better deliver or ill be waiting at 85c for the train to arrive lol

[LJB]

Well if he wants some runs on the board he better deliver or ill be waiting at 85c for the train to arrive lol

I'm not waiting for that day. Would love to hang on to enjoy the ride when everything works but I've got a house to build and I would be crucified by 'she who must be obeyed' if I end up selling at aforementioned 85c. What a bugger. I thought it was all up from $1.20. Probably will be now I've bailed out. Hope all news from now on is good for all you Pikers.

[manxman]

If the price is below $1.25 (eg $1.15 ), then people will not exercise the options.
And pike gets nothing.

So it is INCREDIBLY important for pike to have the share price be over $1.25 on 24/04/11. $80 million important.

Given that pike have the ability to sway the price of the SP's so much (with which information they release and when), can we not expect some really "good" news to come out sometime at the start of April 2011?
Which will push the SP's over the magic price of $1.25 on 24/04/11.


Of course if PRC tried to do this, the powers that be would come down on them like a ton of bricks:mad ;::mad ;: (er feathers?;)) so the best way would be to start underpromising now so that they can overdeliver by March. Otherwise they have to go back to NZO, who will extract another pound of flesh. But think what grief Liberty Harbour would have given them by now. At least they have had the funds to proceed with rational development.

[Logen Ninefingers]

I'm not waiting for that day. Would love to hang on to enjoy the ride when everything works but I've got a house to build and I would be crucified by 'she who must be obeyed' if I end up selling at aforementioned 85c. What a bugger. I thought it was all up from $1.20. Probably will be now I've bailed out. Hope all news from now on is good for all you Pikers.

Good on you. I'm out too...apart from some worthless options that I've hung on to for some reason. I've had enough of this muppet show. They always build up expectations, then whip out the rug. Only eternal optimists, the gullible, and the criminally insane will stick around on this one. I don't think PRC have met one single target in there history...correct me if I'm wrong.
Can anyone produce a single target date that wasn't later revised? I'm betting not. So why should we believe the latest ones? I thought the 'roadway development' was going fine.....now it's not again. And some machinery needs to be totally re-aligned. And an ABX9000 still needs to turn up. And.......you know the story. There's always some excuse why they can't perform.
Look for this mine to hit it's straps in mid June 2024. Then it'll be a buy - target share price: $1.50

[777]

2024, now that is a long way away. There may be no use for coal by then.

[Traderx]

Tomorrow could be interesting, will bargain hunters jump in or will more people exit when they read about this in the paper, only abit bid @105 and then next stop 101.

Market in general could be under pressure tomorrow as the US may have a bad day overnight tonight, AAPL down 6% after hours on a "disappointing" result.

[sheepy]

The Bathurst boys will hit a 1,000,000 tonnes a year on the west coast before these a-holes. And they dont even have resource consent yet. Im like you Logen, out. I think we will have the option of coming back in at a much lower price. Kept options, hoping they might extend the expiry date. Its almost like a monty python skit. What can go wrong has, and we are expecting more things to go wrong from now on. That is the one thing you can all count on. Im sure they will sort it but my money is better somewhere else at the moment. Maybe something low risk like the martin jetpack, HA HA!.

[sheepy]

No word of the intended drilling of the Paparoa seam. He should of pulled that one out again. A little bit of gloss to todays announcment would of being too predictable I guess.

[rabcat]

A few weeks ago I asked " what does Pike need $80m from the Options for?" After todays announcement i still cant see much need for the money.

So there is no prize!

In fact for ordinary shareholders keeping the share price below 125 untill the middle of next year would prevent the issue of 80m shares which would dilute the possible dividends. So for ordinary shareholders looking at this as a long term hold there is benifit in keeping the price low in the short term!

If the above is right then who are the long term winners from todays announcement????? NZO????

[mouse]

We do need to try and get monthly projected production figures and then check them against actual production. I have some difficulty in understanding what 320,000 tonnes to 360,000 tonnes to June 2011 actually means. Has anyone any idea? If so, would you please share your insight?
Our Earthquakes in Christchurch, another 5.0 today and a bit of a major one, seem to be pretty predictable.

Balance, are you laughing?

[JoeBlogs]

We do need to try and get monthly projected production figures and then check them against actual production. I have some difficulty in understanding what 320,000 tonnes to 360,000 tonnes to June 2011 actually means. Has anyone any idea? If so, would you please share your insight?
Our Earthquakes in Christchurch, another 5.0 today and a bit of a major one, seem to be pretty predictable.

Balance, are you laughing?

The FY11 production forecast (the amount of saleable coal forecast to be extracted between 1 July 2010 and 30 June 2011) has been reduced from 620,000 tonnes to the range 320,000-360,000. We knew this was going to happen as PW has been talking about it for a while, and it was obvious since yonks ago that roadway developement had been behind forecast. I guess the market was shocked by the amount of the revision? But I have to say there was no real suprise from my perspective - go figure!

You could work out the rough monthly figures based on the info - e.g. average of 40,000 per month up till 30/6/11 with rate increasing to 60,000/month in the Jun 11 quarter - you're looking at 20-30,000 for next couple of months increasing from there to 60,000 tonnes by May/Jun

[Monkey Poms]

We do need to try and get monthly projected production figures and then check them against actual production. I have some difficulty in understanding what 320,000 tonnes to 360,000 tonnes to June 2011 actually means. Has anyone any idea? If so, would you please share your insight?
Our Earthquakes in Christchurch, another 5.0 today and a bit of a major one, seem to be pretty predictable.

Balance, are you laughing?

Hi Mouse. Rabcat post 6903 makes a lot of sense except for the fact that we need to rely on short term funding from NZOG. (I will eat humble pie over the NZOG waiver for now. Hope they don't screw Pike to the extent to which Liberty Harbour did in extracting penalty payments).

The latest update means that the roadway mining equipment cannot keep pace with the hydro mining equipment until Pike can sort the mechanical problems out and put the new AB20 to work. If the news of the revised production tonnage had been delivered by Gordon Ward I would not have believed a word he said. Peter Whittall has just told you the facts based on his judgement. The choice for me, as a long term investor, is, do I believe Peter Whittall? Based on a past meeting at the mine, the answer is 'yes".

From the start of hydro mining to the end of Pike's financial year end - approx 28 weeks/ say, 300,000 tonne = 10,714 tonne per week to be sold at the pit head price of say NZ $270 x 10,714 tonne = weekly revenue of NZ$ 2,892,780, which is not exactly the end of the world. However, the next cargo needs to be a fully loaded Panamax i. e. 60,000 tonnes, as soon as possible, to ease the cash flow problems. You are right Mouse in trying to get the info on the monthly production figures. That is what this mine is all about.

I can understand the frustrations of forum members and understand the reason why they want to head for the exit before their hair turns grey. I am in partly as a currency hedge against the falling pound. Also, I thought my bank was insolvent a year before the government bailed it out. Coal is something I know a little about. It is risky but, if Peter can get it right, from past experience, it will be very rewarding.

Things are bad but they won't be bad for long. You may think I am crazy but I am staying the course.

Monkey Poms.

[Monkey Poms]

Blockies hatful of options now require a very small hat for storage, see some cheeky buggar has a buy order in for 500,000 @ 02c

Hi Blockhead. After reading Rabcat's Post 6904, I think we may be better off if the options are a failure.

The cheeky bugger who offered 0.02 cents for the options. (what a cheek).

If any Piker wants to sell me 100,000 options for 0.025 cents per option I will have a punt on it. If they come good, then i will take my stake out and give the profit to sponsor sporting kits for a school, or donate the profit to a local New Zealand charity based near Nelson.

If anyone thinks their options are worthless and would like to take this up, please contact me through the forum.

I would like to know by Close of business Friday
I will arrange payment for the options through Tony's (forum member name: Mark Martin) broker in New Zealand.

Monkey Poms

[friedegg]

why not donate the profits to some trigger happy coasters to build a mai mai near pike and have them shoot all those protected ducks,im sure youd get a response from some disgruntled pike option holder to sell his options at such a loss then

[dsurf]

I am happy about the announcement. It is possible and based on some fact at last. I see the current situation as a definite contrarian buying opportunity. I remeber the 80c days not that long ago when Hydro mining "would not work" - well it does! I expect a large re-rating IF PRC meets the revised more realistic forecasts.

As for the OA's - There are two minable coal seams - what else will this company do apart from mine the other seam? If the options are not in the money during Q1 2011 then I expect the date to be extended by 3 to 6 months. This is relatively simple. All that needs to be done is that all OA's are replaced with OB's with a different expiry date.

Also enjoying the panic. All year all this thread has gone on about is PRC running out of money, no finance available , will never deliver coal - well guess what - they do have finance & are mining coal. That is why GS are picking $1.50. (I bet GS also own a ****load of options and will probable be paid a 6 figure sum to advise PRC how to extend the OA's so that there optiona are in the money.

Rating this a buy under $1.10 with a target of $1.20 by mid Dec.

Also enjoying all the comments of people who have bailed the OA's & are convincing themselves they did the right thing because they are "worthless"

discl hold OA's & loving it

[JoeBlogs]

dsurf, thanks for that, I'm in the same boat and I think the downside to this announcement has been well and truely overstated - I have to ask what people were expecting given all the info and hints we've had in the last 6 months? I was expecing 400-450,000 to June, so it's not much under that.

Re extending options, are you sure this can be done? What are the conditions, ie. would they have to raise the exercise price? Either way, I'm hanging on to mine, not much point selling now!

[Baddarcy]

Yeah i'm in the same boat as you dsurf. Yesterday just looked like a big over reaction. Pike has been hinting for over a month that they were revising the targets. You would have to been a little simple not to have expected yesterdays announcement, hell i mentioned that a revision was coming and i thought it was going to be down about a month ago !!, It seemed bleedingly obvious to me it was coming, yet "the market" seemed surprised.

What did surprise me was that they did it now, they are due to release a quarterly report next week, so maybe trying the clear the decks of bad news ready for the good next week (here's hoping anyway :-))

Anyway found this really interesting paragraph in this news item, sounds a bit like PW is calling GW a lying weazel:

Formerly Pike River's general mines manager, new chief executive Peter Whittall said today's forecast was conservative and achievable.
"I've gone to the now senior management team on site and said, 'look, you do me a forecast that you can absolutely guarantee you can achieve, and I'll promise not to tinker with it'," he told NZPA.
Previously, the company had adopted the higher end of forecasts provided by mine staff, including himself, he said.
"There's upside in this model, where there's probably not been much upside in any of the previous ones."
Production would be reviewed later this year, after the next export shipment and a few months' hydro-mining.

full news item : http://www.guide2.co.nz/money/news/business/pike-river-coal-confident-despite-lower-production-forecast/11/19602

[bull....]

I am happy about the announcement. It is possible and based on some fact at last. I see the current situation as a definite contrarian buying opportunity. I remeber the 80c days not that long ago when Hydro mining "would not work" - well it does! I expect a large re-rating IF PRC meets the revised more realistic forecasts.

As for the OA's - There are two minable coal seams - what else will this company do apart from mine the other seam? If the options are not in the money during Q1 2011 then I expect the date to be extended by 3 to 6 months. This is relatively simple. All that needs to be done is that all OA's are replaced with OB's with a different expiry date.

Also enjoying the panic. All year all this thread has gone on about is PRC running out of money, no finance available , will never deliver coal - well guess what - they do have finance & are mining coal. That is why GS are picking $1.50. (I bet GS also own a ****load of options and will probable be paid a 6 figure sum to advise PRC how to extend the OA's so that there optiona are in the money.

Rating this a buy under $1.10 with a target of $1.20 by mid Dec.

Also enjoying all the comments of people who have bailed the OA's & are convincing themselves they did the right thing because they are "worthless"

discl hold OA's & loving it

Go read about options because if they close out of the money you lose all your money plain and simple.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Like cockroaches emerging from the rubble of a nuclear holocaust, the good news brigade shake of the dust and start gibbering once again about how everything is fine and dandy at PRC.
The sad thing is going to be the months of endless posting in a vacuum as the speculating & postulating cranks up again on this non-money making coal mine.

The fact is that Pike River Coal has nothing in the bank, and when they do earn anything it's going to go straight out again just to keep them running. Everything they earn is going to go on a) keeping the mine running b) paying off the debt they owe NZO with interest. Every month that passes they get deeper in the hole, and I don't mean the coal mine.

For anyone staying the course, I'd ask: why? It's going to be a long time before any mushrooms get any cream from PRC....don't you have better things to do with your money in the interim?

Where the mushrooms are going to be needed is when another 'dilutionary raising' is required to assist NZO shareholders with bearing the load of bailing out PRC. When that happens, you'll be given the deluxe treatment....information will be pouring out of PRC until they've bled you of the funds they need, then they'll shut up shop again and only them and the big 3 shareholders will know what is going on week to week.

When will the diehards ever learn.

[Billy Boy]

Go read about options because if they close out of the money you lose all your money plain and simple.

No not quite.... You could convert them to heads and wait.

[Billy Boy]

A few weeks ago I asked " what does Pike need $80m from the Options for?" After todays announcement i still cant see much need for the money.

So there is no prize!

In fact for ordinary shareholders keeping the share price below 125 untill the middle of next year would prevent the issue of 80m shares which would dilute the possible dividends. So for ordinary shareholders looking at this as a long term hold there is benifit in keeping the price low in the short term!

If the above is right then who are the long term winners from todays announcement????? NZO????
Rabcat...
There are underwriters who will pick up the unconverted options at a discount and convert them
to heads or could (repeat could) come to some other deal with pike.
BB

[JoeBlogs]

No not quite.... You could convert them to heads and wait.

You could, but you'd be paying more than just buying the heads on market, so you wouldn't. bull is right.

[bull....]

No not quite.... You could convert them to heads and wait.

Your quite right Billy Boy I didnt mention this as im not a believer in throwing good money after bad.
you might get new options issued when they do another cap raising at some point

[blockhead]

Logen cobber, I bought into PRC knowing there was risk involved, I hoped to quickly make a bundle but that hasn't happened but I do not look upon myself as a gibbering insect exile from Chernobyl. I have not given up on PRC nor it seems has PW or NZO , both who would have more knowledge than me about the goings on there.
I believe yesterdays ann was one of the best so far, not for what it said so much but because what it did say is believable.

Was a little concerned to note the new ABM 20 machine appears to need upgrading as mentioned in the ann, from earlier anns it sounded as if they just arrived at the mine and waded into it.

All is not lost Logen

[Kees]

Previously, the company had adopted the higher end of forecasts provided by mine staff, including himself, he said.

So we were telling porkys then but now Iam going to tell it straight sounds like a tui's billboard to me.

[Dr_Who]

Looks like more buying opportunity coming up soon in PRC for the longer term investors.

[JoeBlogs]

Previously, the company had adopted the higher end of forecasts provided by mine staff, including himself, he said.

So we were telling porkys then but now Iam going to tell it straight sounds like a tui's billboard to me.

Not at all, he provided the information to the CEO, who then took the higher end of estimates. Now that he's CEO, he's providing a more conservative picture - pretty much what we've all been asking for, and clarifies the picture surrounding GW's departure.

Blockhead, nothing in there about upgrading the ABM20 - just the upgrade to one of the current machines (continuous miners) which we were told about a long time ago. I.e. one of the CMs will be out for upgrade before the second ABM20 arrives, meaning delays to roadway development. I assume the other CM will be upgraded after the second beast gets here.

[RenHoek]

Previously, the company had adopted the higher end of forecasts provided by mine staff, including himself, he said.

So we were telling porkys then but now Iam going to tell it straight sounds like a tui's billboard to me.

It seems to me they had to give out high forecasts to get the funding they needed to become self sufficient. (from investors etc...)
Now that they are (or seem to be) self sufficient, they can start giving out reasonable estimations as they don't need to rely on investment and market hype anymore.

Ren

[blockhead]

Ah hope you are right JB, its just a little unclear the way it is written

"Slower roadway development to date and lower forecast development in the
next few months ahead of the introduction of the second ABM20 continuous
mining machine and an upgrade to one of the current machines, will result in
some interruptions to hydro production in the new year."

[Hoop]

Yeah i'm in the same boat as you dsurf. Yesterday just looked like a big over reaction. Pike has been hinting for over a month that they were revising the targets. You would have to been a little simple not to have expected yesterdays announcement, hell i mentioned that a revision was coming and i thought it was going to be down about a month ago !!, It seemed bleedingly obvious to me it was coming, yet "the market" seemed surprised.

What did surprise me was that they did it now, they are due to release a quarterly report next week, so maybe trying the clear the decks of bad news ready for the good next week (here's hoping anyway :-))

Anyway found this really interesting paragraph in this news item, sounds a bit like PW is calling GW a lying weazel:

Formerly Pike River's general mines manager, new chief executive Peter Whittall said today's forecast was conservative and achievable.
"I've gone to the now senior management team on site and said, 'look, you do me a forecast that you can absolutely guarantee you can achieve, and I'll promise not to tinker with it'," he told NZPA.
Previously, the company had adopted the higher end of forecasts provided by mine staff, including himself, he said.
"There's upside in this model, where there's probably not been much upside in any of the previous ones."
Production would be reviewed later this year, after the next export shipment and a few months' hydro-mining.

full news item : http://www.guide2.co.nz/money/news/business/pike-river-coal-confident-despite-lower-production-forecast/11/19602

Interesting....
New CEO new tactics..hmmm...could it be old CEO overstated (proven to the extreme, which has really upset investors confidence in the company) and the new broom is understating ( Quote :...".....you do me a forecast that you can absolutely guarantee you can achieve...").

I think Pike really wants that 80M from the PRCOA. Thinking ahead, maybe.. forecasting an average biased well to the underside might give a possible extra tool for early next year to ramp the shareprice enough to get those options exercised and it would stop this negative shareholder/public image as well.

Kinda looks like we are going back to where the shareprice was 7 weeks ago.. damm

Regarding why the announcement was now and not next week with the quarterly report? . My guess is that someone "let the cat out of the bag", the 12th October OBV picked this up..It now looks like it was an insider trading event doesn't it? I guess PW thought it would be less damaging to the market to release the news early rather than let the possible rumour fester.

[JoeBlogs]

Blockie, if you want it cleared up just send an email to Brian Roulston. He's good at sorting out these sort of queries. Address is on the website.

[Monkey Poms]

why not donate the profits to some trigger happy coasters to build a mai mai near pike and have them shoot all those protected ducks,im sure youd get a response from some disgruntled pike option holder to sell his options at such a loss then

As yet I have not received any offers from you lot to sell me your worthless options ? ( come on lads it's for a good cause, I will also donate my stake money )
Friedegg. Dont shoot the ducks. How about a logo on some sport's shirts,
A Monkey no cross that one out, how about a fish logo sponsord by the Pike River Forum, if we pass on our luck, the team will never win again.

Monkey Poms.

[Hoop]

100 support respected buyers returning..is the freefall over?

[Billy Boy]

Your quite right Billy Boy I didnt mention this as im not a believer in throwing good money after bad.
you might get new options issued when they do another cap raising at some point

"Throwing good money after bad" ?
Depends what you bought at. The heads will go for $1.25, so $1.25 plus your option price, then 'TIME'
or :- at a given time, sell opt's and buy heads. cost ... heads plus lost on opt's.
or:- take a write off with either/or... or both !

hoop got it right.... Pike want the $80 mill or as close as they can to it. Would'nt You ???

Can anybody remember what the default price was for the underwriter ???
BB

[Bilo]

You could, but you'd be paying more than just buying the heads on market, so you wouldn't. bull is right.

There are 64M options out there. 15% of PRC. If you tried to buy 64M heads the price would go over 125c. If someone wanting to buy the mine the options currently the options provide a bit of a hurdle as they would have to be bought. This could all change in 6 months. IMO the options are not worthless (NZD7M) for a downpayment on 15% stake in 20M+ tonnes of top quality coking coal.

I continue to hold but logen's comments touch a very sore and festering point that the directors have mis-managed IMO. All this would have been better if they had posted weekly production tonnage - highly relevant and not disclosed.

[Logen Ninefingers]

I guess what'll happen now is whats happened every time in the past: traders will start edging the price back up by buying parcels of shares in gradually increasing increments, then they'll offload to suckers with coal-fever at a level they are happy with, then at the next installment of bad news everyone casts their shares to the wind as the SP implodes again, then traders will start edging the price back up by buying parcels of shares in gradually increasing increments, then they'll offload to suckers with coal-fever at a level they are happy with, then at the next installment of bad news everyone casts their shares to the wind as the SP implodes again, traders will start edging the price back up by buying parcels of shares in gradually increasing increments, then they'll offload to suckers with coal-fever at a level they are happy with, then at the next installment of bad news everyone casts their shares to the wind as the SP implodes again, then......

[peat]

I guess what'll happen now is whats happened every time in the past: traders will start edging the price back up by buying parcels of shares in gradually increasing increments, then they'll offload to suckers with coal-fever at a level they are happy with, then at the next installment of bad news everyone casts their shares to the wind as the SP implodes again,......

good definition of the stock market really.

[tony64peter]

You sound emotionally attached......
I guess what'll happen now is whats happened every time in the past: traders will start edging the price back up by buying parcels of shares in gradually increasing increments, then they'll offload to suckers with coal-fever at a level they are happy with, then at the next installment of bad news everyone casts their shares to the wind as the SP implodes again, then traders will start edging the price back up by buying parcels of shares in gradually increasing increments, then they'll offload to suckers with coal-fever at a level they are happy with, then at the next installment of bad news everyone casts their shares to the wind as the SP implodes again, traders will start edging the price back up by buying parcels of shares in gradually increasing increments, then they'll offload to suckers with coal-fever at a level they are happy with, then at the next installment of bad news everyone casts their shares to the wind as the SP implodes again, then......

[Logen Ninefingers]

Just incredulous that such a simple process of fleecing the unwary has to be over complicated in some way. PRC is an earnings black hole. They are now just a zombified puppet of NZO, they are locked into a cycle of borrowing to pay for the mine continuing to run, and they've still only ever shipped 40,000 tonnes of coal. Let NZO take them over or continue bailing them out. NZO are going to continue bailing them out, and that means NZO gets paid first before anyone else, and whatevers left over goes into trying to keep the mine running.
Yet some people continue to have faith in PRC and cling on to it desperately despite having filth from above rained down upon their heads. This is some quasi-religious state of faithfully waiting for deliverance despite being assailed by mountains of evidence that deliverance is not coming. PRC is a white elephant. PRC is a myth. PRC is a vassal state of NZO which was run aground by one of their minions.

[dsurf]

I love buying this stock every time the "gloomsters" are out.

[dsurf]

I guess what'll happen now is whats happened every time in the past: traders will start edging the price back up by buying parcels of shares in gradually increasing increments, then they'll offload to suckers with coal-fever at a level they are happy with, then at the next installment of bad news everyone casts their shares to the wind as the SP implodes again, then traders will start edging the price back up by buying parcels of shares in gradually increasing increments, then they'll offload to suckers with coal-fever at a level they are happy with, then at the next installment of bad news everyone casts their shares to the wind as the SP implodes again, traders will start edging the price back up by buying parcels of shares in gradually increasing increments, then they'll offload to suckers with coal-fever at a level they are happy with, then at the next installment of bad news everyone casts their shares to the wind as the SP implodes again, then......

So is there enough bad news for you to buy right now - or is more bad news coming & they go lower?

[dsurf]

Go read about options because if they close out of the money you lose all your money plain and simple.

OK - stop reading textbooks BULL

- The 30% current shareholder of PRC was called NOG previously & in 2002 & had no cash.

They issued options & they were not in the money so they extended them. And again it appeared that they may not be in the money so they issued the following market release:

ALLOT: NOG: ADVANCE NOTICE OF FURTHER ISSUE OF OPTIONS 04:02p.m.
NOG
19/02/2002
ALLOT

REL: 1602 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

ALLOT: NOG: ADVANCE NOTICE OF FURTHER ISSUE OF OPTIONS

New Zealand Oil & Gas has further considered the position of existing option
holders in the context of the high potential Tui prospect. While the Opito
well will be drilled during the currency of the existing options, Tui is
unlikely to be drilled before mid-year.

Directors have decided that it would be inappropriate to extend the term of
the existing options for a second time. Consequently the existing options,
to the extent they are not exercised, will expire on 30/06/2002.

However, directors believe that an issue of new options, pro rata to both
shareholders and option holders, would be beneficial to both classes of
investors and to the Company.

It is intended that new options will be issued for a cash consideration, and
be offered in May/June this year, with a period provided for trading of
rights. The following criteria have been adopted by the Board (subject to
the conditions noted below):

Term: 3 years from July 2002

Offer ratio: 1:2 (one new option for each two shares or existing options
held)

Total securities to be offered: 87.7 million*, (of which 57.7m would be
offered to shareholders and 30m to option holders). (*excluding treasury
securities.)

Option issue price 2 cents

Exercise Price: dependent on the share price around the time of the offer but
not less than 60 cents.

The issue would raise up to $1.75 million to supplement working capital.

INVESTORS MUST TAKE NOTE OF THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS ANNOUNCEMENT AS
DETAILED BELOW.

The Board has decided to make an advance announcement of the intended issue
so that shareholders and holders of existing options are able to act in the
coming months on an informed basis.

Existing option holders should be able to act on the basis that they need not
be left empty-handed at 30/06/2002 and shareholders should be able to act on
the basis that that they will participate pro rata in any new options issue.

In the event the Company's share price rises substantially above the existing
option exercise price of 56 cents, for a consistent and reasonable period
leading up to 30/06/2002 (e.g. as a result of a discovery at Opito), the
board would in those circumstances reconsider the merits of issuing new
options, and may decide not to proceed with such an issue.

Hope this puts the matter to rest unless someone can advise of a rule change. The options can be extended or swapped for other options etc.

[Logen Ninefingers]

So is there enough bad news for you to buy right now - or is more bad news coming & they go lower?

The PRC share price is like some sadistic game of bull rush. They send out a runner pumped up with steroids and he goes charging upfield for about 40 metres, leaving tacklers in his wake, and then he get's decapitated by a bear that comes out of nowhere. Everytime this happens everyone expects a different outcome, even though there is a pile of headless chumps on the 40 metres line.

[777]

I'm with you dsurf.

[777]

That statement made me laugh a bit, unlike dumping my recently purchased shares yesterday, 3c less than I paid for them. :eek2:

Called "locking in a loss"

[Billy Boy]

Dsurf #6936
Good post Dsurf... says it all
BB

[bull....]

OK - stop reading textbooks BULL

- The 30% current shareholder of PRC was called NOG previously & in 2002 & had no cash.

They issued options & they were not in the money so they extended them. And again it appeared that they may not be in the money so they issued the following market release:

ALLOT: NOG: ADVANCE NOTICE OF FURTHER ISSUE OF OPTIONS 04:02p.m.
NOG
19/02/2002
ALLOT

REL: 1602 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

ALLOT: NOG: ADVANCE NOTICE OF FURTHER ISSUE OF OPTIONS

New Zealand Oil & Gas has further considered the position of existing option
holders in the context of the high potential Tui prospect. While the Opito
well will be drilled during the currency of the existing options, Tui is
unlikely to be drilled before mid-year.

Directors have decided that it would be inappropriate to extend the term of
the existing options for a second time. Consequently the existing options,
to the extent they are not exercised, will expire on 30/06/2002.

However, directors believe that an issue of new options, pro rata to both
shareholders and option holders, would be beneficial to both classes of
investors and to the Company.

It is intended that new options will be issued for a cash consideration, and
be offered in May/June this year, with a period provided for trading of
rights. The following criteria have been adopted by the Board (subject to
the conditions noted below):

Term: 3 years from July 2002

Offer ratio: 1:2 (one new option for each two shares or existing options
held)

Total securities to be offered: 87.7 million*, (of which 57.7m would be
offered to shareholders and 30m to option holders). (*excluding treasury
securities.)

Option issue price 2 cents

Exercise Price: dependent on the share price around the time of the offer but
not less than 60 cents.

The issue would raise up to $1.75 million to supplement working capital.

INVESTORS MUST TAKE NOTE OF THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS ANNOUNCEMENT AS
DETAILED BELOW.

The Board has decided to make an advance announcement of the intended issue
so that shareholders and holders of existing options are able to act in the
coming months on an informed basis.

Existing option holders should be able to act on the basis that they need not
be left empty-handed at 30/06/2002 and shareholders should be able to act on
the basis that that they will participate pro rata in any new options issue.

In the event the Company's share price rises substantially above the existing
option exercise price of 56 cents, for a consistent and reasonable period
leading up to 30/06/2002 (e.g. as a result of a discovery at Opito), the
board would in those circumstances reconsider the merits of issuing new
options, and may decide not to proceed with such an issue.

Hope this puts the matter to rest unless someone can advise of a rule change. The options can be extended or swapped for other options etc.

It doesnt matter whether they extend them 10 times if the heads are not in the money you lose.

[friedegg]

ALLOT: NOG: ADVANCE NOTICE OF FURTHER ISSUE OF OPTIONS 04:02p.m.
NOG
19/02/2002
ALLOT

REL: 1602 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

ALLOT: NOG: ADVANCE NOTICE OF FURTHER ISSUE OF OPTIONS

New Zealand Oil & Gas has further considered the position of existing option
holders in the context of the high potential Tui prospect. While the Opito
well will be drilled during the currency of the existing options, Tui is
unlikely to be drilled before mid-year.

Directors have decided that it would be inappropriate to extend the term of
the existing options for a second time. Consequently the existing options,
to the extent they are not exercised, will expire on 30/06/2002.

However, directors believe that an issue of new options, pro rata to both
shareholders and option holders, would be beneficial to both classes of
investors and to the Company.

It is intended that new options will be issued for a cash consideration, and
be offered in May/June this year, with a period provided for trading of
rights. The following criteria have been adopted by the Board (subject to
the conditions noted below):

Term: 3 years from July 2002

Offer ratio: 1:2 (one new option for each two shares or existing options
held)

Total securities to be offered: 87.7 million*, (of which 57.7m would be
offered to shareholders and 30m to option holders). (*excluding treasury
securities.)

Option issue price 2 cents

Exercise Price: dependent on the share price around the time of the offer but
not less than 60 cents.

The issue would raise up to $1.75 million to supplement working capital.

INVESTORS MUST TAKE NOTE OF THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS ANNOUNCEMENT AS
DETAILED BELOW.

The Board has decided to make an advance announcement of the intended issue
so that shareholders and holders of existing options are able to act in the
coming months on an informed basis.

Existing option holders should be able to act on the basis that they need not
be left empty-handed at 30/06/2002 and shareholders should be able to act on
the basis that that they will participate pro rata in any new options issue.

In the event the Company's share price rises substantially above the existing
option exercise price of 56 cents, for a consistent and reasonable period
leading up to 30/06/2002 (e.g. as a result of a discovery at Opito), the
board would in those circumstances reconsider the merits of issuing new
options, and may decide not to proceed with such an issue.

Hope this puts the matter to rest unless someone can advise of a rule change. The options can be extended or swapped for other options etc.



thats not just purely an extension,option holders still had to cough up more money and were entitled to less than they already held.
anyway dsurf thanks for posting that announcement i may print it and paste it on my wall because that announcement and the consequences of the new options ended up costing me my wife/kids and a whole stack of money

[JoeBlogs]

Read the second paragraph, the options had already been extended once.


Directors have decided that it would be inappropriate to extend the term of
the existing options for a second time. Consequently the existing options,
to the extent they are not exercised, will expire on 30/06/2002.

[mouse]

I am a little surprised at the extent of the teething problems. But they are clearly part of getting the mine working. :) We should, as Pikers, have faith in Management. They will produce the goods eventually. :) What this delay shows is the lamentable state of NZ practical skills. It is taking us longer to sort this one out due to us not actually knowing any more how to run an industrial operation.:scared:

Clearly no dividend until November next year. :p But good dividends will come. All it needs is a little more cash to keep ticking over, and paying bonus performance incentives for another year or so. :) Have faith and confidence. Plus buy more shares when they hit 90 cents. There is a 'buy' price! :eek2:

[JoeBlogs]

Here's the announcement from NOG re option extension:


NOG
25/05/2001
GEN

REL: 1406 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

GEN: NOG: EXTENSION OF OPTION EXPIRY DATE

NZ Oil and Gas have announced the results of Special General Meetings whereby
special resolutions were passed which
- Deleted the reference to "NZ709 cents" in condition (a)(I) and replaced it
with "NZ75 cents" so that the amount required to subscribe for one share in
the company in exercising an option is NZ75 cents
- Deleted the reference to "31 October 2001" from condition (a)(iii) and
replaced it with the date "30 June 2002" so that the Expiry Date and the time
by which the options must be exercised is 5pm NZ time 30 June 2002.
End CA:00067388 For:NOG Type:GEN Time:2001-05-25:14:06:21 Encrypt:Y

[Monkey Poms]

Just incredulous that such a simple process of fleecing the unwary has to be over complicated in some way. PRC is an earnings black hole. They are now just a zombified puppet of NZO, they are locked into a cycle of borrowing to pay for the mine continuing to run, and they've still only ever shipped 40,000 tonnes of coal. Let NZO take them over or continue bailing them out. NZO are going to continue bailing them out, and that means NZO gets paid first before anyone else, and whatevers left over goes into trying to keep the mine running.
Yet some people continue to have faith in PRC and cling on to it desperately despite having filth from above rained down upon their heads. This is some quasi-religious state of faithfully waiting for deliverance despite being assailed by mountains of evidence that deliverance is not coming. PRC is a white elephant. PRC is a myth. PRC is a vassal state of NZO which was run aground by one of their minions.

Logen. What if you are wrong?

Monkey Poms

[Lion]

Logen. What if you are wrong?

Monkey Poms

Oh shock horror, he might actually have to cheer up.

[Unicorn]

It looks like the latest announcement has surprised some shareholders and spooked them into dumping shares at irrational prices. Which has allowed some less emotional investors to benefit - todays close being 5% above the lows.

PRC has a long history of not meeting targets, so this further delay is nothing new. The last quarterly report advised "Export shipments from September 2010 onwards are expected to be approximately
20-30,000 tonnes per month with production building to around 40,000 tonnes per month by December 2010." Given that there has been no shipment other than the 20,000 tons August shipment (and even that ended up being delayed into September) it should have been quite obvious to everyone that there would be a significant reduction in production forecasts at some point. What was announced was quite reasonable, and entirely in line with my expectations.

Given the consistent and serious under performance by the company to date, and the ridiculous decision to pay staff bonuses in spite of continuing failure to meet targets, I think it is important that shareholders send a message to the Board that they require the company to be better managed. This can be done through questions at the AGM (not easy to get to, being so remote) and Investors meetings (much easier to attend). Shareholders also have the opportunity to vote against the reappointment of any directors who are standing for re-election, and I think that this is something that should be done by any shareholders who feel that the performance has been inadequate and fresh blood is needed.

[the machine]

sounds like some posters are downramping so they can pick up cheap pike shares

m

[sheepy]

When they need refinancing they will get shafted again, negotiating from a position of weakness. They never released the monthly production targets, and I dought they will mine enough coal to pay back NZO before the years end. I will be back in, but I see there being a chance to come in at a lower price, after the next round of bad news. Which is almost certinaly around the corner. Instead of extending the options, maybe they should change it to 80c to convert them. Now that would be an acheivable target. Maybe the first.

[digger]

When they need refinancing they will get shafted again, negotiating from a position of weakness. They never released the monthly production targets, and I dought they will mine enough coal to pay back NZO before the years end. I will be back in, but I see there being a chance to come in at a lower price, after the next round of bad news. Which is almost certinaly around the corner. Instead of extending the options, maybe they should change it to 80c to convert them. Now that would be an acheivable target. Maybe the first.

This talk about changing the option paramaters for practically purposes is not legally doable.That is just not how it works.The option PRCOA has to stand as they are.What can happen is that a new option is issued [PRCOB} for free or a small charge that both PRCOA and PRC can take part in. Legally this is quite different to trying to change PRCOA. As an example let us say PRCOB is issued to head holders and PRCOA at 5 cents a option converting at your suggested 80 cents. The legal point here is that no matter how crasy it sounds any PRCOA holder could decline to take up the offer and still later convert the PRCOA at 1.25. And beleive me some one will probably stand on there right and do just that. But note the conversion details of PRCOA can not be changed unless a special general meeting is set up and can get some ungodly high percentage of both option and head holders to support it,which is toooo complicated to follow through.
Soall we can hope for is that PRCOA metamorpize into PRCOB

[JoeBlogs]

digger, I was also under the impression that extending the options was not doable, but how do you explain the announcement from NZO in my previous post that clearly states they changed the expiry date on the options to extend them by 8 months? Of course, they'd need shareholder approval, and that may not be forthcoming. Can't really see it happening, but it's definitely happened before!

Having said that, Brian Roulston has just informed me (in response to an email I sent) that, while he is unable to speculate on the actions of the board, any change to the nature of the options is prohibited by ASX Listing Rule 6.23.3

Of course, listing rules are there to be waived.........

[Bilo]

Having said that, Brian Roulston has just informed me (in response to an email I sent) that, while he is unable to speculate on the actions of the board, any change to the nature of the options is prohibited by ASX Listing Rule 6.23.3

Of course, listing rules are there to be waived.........

And dual listings for companies under a market cap of about a billion should have been banned when international electronic trading came in. Dumping the ASX listing is always an option.

[Hoop]

When they need refinancing they will get shafted again, negotiating from a position of weakness. They never released the monthly production targets, and I dought they will mine enough coal to pay back NZO before the years end. I will be back in, but I see there being a chance to come in at a lower price, after the next round of bad news. Which is almost certinaly around the corner. Instead of extending the options, maybe they should change it to 80c to convert them. Now that would be an acheivable target. Maybe the first.

Might seem like a good idea on the surface but... its not its bad
Why ??...because the market place can not be trusted ... any rumours can effect the pricing mechanism..creates unfairness between those in the "know" and the rest of us under privileged investors.

The NZ Stockmarket needs more investors.... and the only way to get the average person off the street to invest their precocious hard working money in stocks, options, warrants, notes & bonds etc is to create a fair and level playing field and create a confidence that the sharemarket is not a gambling casino but another investment vehicle with its specified risk/reward levels formulae in place (Marketplace rules and regulations). The last thing any investment wants is uncertainty with the Exchange changing the rules of the game all the time...all this action does is increase the risk and aversion to invest.

Sheepy Lets put your suggestions to work. Now we going to assume PRC are thinking of tinkering with the PRCOA but nothing is certain. Now remember this, when that tinkering news first breaks, Sheepy, you and I will be one of the many to be the last to hear about it. How can you protect those uninformed sellers before any official announcement ..huh?

Taking the pre-opening PRC 105c and using the present 60% volatility and interest rate of 4% factors expiry date 24/4/2011 and exercise price 125 the options are worth 11.8c at pre-opening this morning.

Change only the expiry date to 24/12/2011 the options are now worth 22.2c
Change only the exercise price to 80c the options are now worth 32c
Change the exercise price to 80c and change expiry date to 24/12/2011 the options are now worth 40c

[Traderx]

Changing the options either by lowering exercise price or extending date with a view of having them more likely to be exercised should be vigorously opposed by shareholders as it represents a transfer of wealth from shareholders to option holders and increases uncertainty for investors.

Theres no free lunch.

I'd hope that PRC would never do such a thing.

[Bixbite]

“Theres no free lunch.”

You are wrong Traderx, I already got free lunch from Pike. I’m one of the Pike fans, therefor I've pre-converted my PROCA - about four PROCA swapped one PRC for free.

I'm waiting for the PRCOB issuing.

.

[JoeBlogs]

I'm an option holder, but objectively speaking I agree with Traderx

What I would say though is the dilutionary effect of converting options may be being overstated - e.g. if the funds are simply used to pay down debt in the short term, the interest savings go some way to countering any dividend dilution.

[Traderx]

“Theres no free lunch.”

You are wrong Traderx, I already got free lunch from Pike. I’m one of the Pike fans, therefor I've pre-converted my PROCA - about four PROCA swapped one PRC for free.

I'm waiting for the PRCOB issuing.

.

hmm not quite sure exactly what you mean in terms of 4 for one, but pre-converting is seldom a good idea. A lot of an option's value is in its optionality (kind of a truism i know). You have given up that optionality. I think you have destroyed value (for yourself)

Regards

[sheepy]

Fair playing field, when these options were issued,(which seems like a bloody long time ago) we had all these promises of being in full production by now. You would be highly peeved if you brought options at 30c when everybody was looking through rose coloured glasses. Saying how could the share price not be above 1.50 at May 2011. Now it is very clear that we have all being deceived by the man who sets these targets. Which is why he isnt there any more. He got the investors money I guess, which is beter than Mr Norgate. But how do they set these targets, I can picture them throwing darts at a dart board, with the score being the production target. Hopefully the new guy has a more accurate method for working these things out. Maybe we should get Paul Henry to go on the board hes not afraid to shake things up. Plus he would be good at negotiating with the life of mine partners.

[Logen Ninefingers]

He got the investors money I guess, which is beter than Mr Norgate. But how do they set these targets, I can picture them throwing darts at a dart board, with the score being the production target. Hopefully the new guy has a more accurate method for working these things out.

Well P Whittal admitted the other day he was the one feeding GW all the ambitious targets; GW didn't know enough about coal mining to know any different anyway......

My guess is they are setting some un-ambitious targets, they'll hit their stated monthly production target in a few months next year, and NZO will look to off-load onto some other party before the wheels fall off again. Right now the HMS NZO is grinding up against a huge black iceberg (or should that be coal-berg), and they want to get free of it quick smart.

[JoeBlogs]

Well P Whittal admitted the other day he was the one feeding GW all the ambitious targets

That's just plain wrong. He said he gave GW the forecasts, and GW always took the upper end of the range rather than providing shareholders with conservative view. Short of building in some sort of 'CEO overpromise buffer' there's not much PW could have done.

[friedegg]

i just cant believe the options are still trading at 12c premium to the excise price,never have i seen this scenario with options on nzx or asx

[digger]

digger, I was also under the impression that extending the options was not doable, but how do you explain the announcement from NZO in my previous post that clearly states they changed the expiry date on the options to extend them by 8 months? Of course, they'd need shareholder approval, and that may not be forthcoming. Can't really see it happening, but it's definitely happened before!

.........

The expiry date was changed once before in a very different circumstances. On that occasion the option was issued to cover a specificed drill that did not occure in that time interval.The extension only in fact allowed the origional option requirements to be met. Here with PRCOA no specific production promise was every made,only a time and price at conversion date. In my mind it is just not worth the legal hassel to try and change anything with PRCOA,but things could happen as per my post above,but that is only spectulation and please do not buy on my theory.

[Logen Ninefingers]

That's just plain wrong. He said he gave GW the forecasts, and GW always took the upper end of the range rather than providing shareholders with conservative view. Short of building in some sort of 'CEO overpromise buffer' there's not much PW could have done.

Sorry everyone. Prior to GW taking a long walk of a short plank every Piker thought he was doing a maarvelous job.

[Bilo]

Sorry everyone. Prior to GW taking a long walk of a short plank every Piker thought he was doing a maarvelous job.

Yeah right!

[Monkey Poms]

Originally Posted by Logen Ninefingers
"Well P Whittal admitted the other day he was the one feeding GW all the ambitious targets"


That's just plain wrong. He said he gave GW the forecasts, and GW always took the upper end of the range rather than providing shareholders with conservative view. Short of building in some sort of 'CEO overpromise buffer' there's not much PW could have done.


Sorry everyone. Prior to GW taking a long walk of a short plank every Piker thought he was doing a maarvelous job.

Hi Logen. I enjoy reading your posts, some of them informative and some of them amusing, some in frustration you capture the whole spectrum of the pike mood.

Regarding your thoughts of Peter Whittall being responsible for the over optimistic comments made by Gordon Ward regarding production targets:

You are so wrong and Joe Blogs is right on the mark. To be fair to you prior to meeting PW & GW at the mine site last January I had an open mind about GW, at the end of the meeting I was embarrassed that NZOG could have chosen GW to head PRC.

Logen I can not print on this page what we discussed on the day of our meeting at the mine, however I can assure you we gave GW a very hard time. If you really want to know how wrong you are regarding PW, contact my cousin Tony who attended the same meeting.
Cycle Surgery. Stoke. Nelson.

Remember at the time PW worked for GW, and Gordon had the shout.

Monkey Poms

[JoeBlogs]

i just cant believe the options are still trading at 12c premium to the excise price,never have i seen this scenario with options on nzx or asx

?? The options are trading at about their theoretical value given current sp etc. 6 months has value, it's not expiry date yet!

[RenHoek]

?? The options are trading at about their theoretical value given current sp etc. 6 months has value, it's not expiry date yet!

Yea, but there is nothing on the horizon to boost the SP price above $1.25 over the next 6 months.
And given their 12c current price, the SP needs to be above $1.37 for the OA's to at least break even. ( >~$1.43 to make the same profit if simply the SP was bought )
The ramp-up of Hydro was the big winner (for the market) but its been pushed to the later half of 2011. Only coal tonnage per month can do anything now. And I expect it to be not enough.

But... I'm sure Pike would _really_ like that $80 million.

So I understand there are 3 ways it can go
1) Pike release some "good" news at the start of April 2011 which boosts the SP price above $1.25. ( not guaranteed it will be above $1.37, or $1.43 to benifit OA owners )
2) Pike issue some OB's, either for a later date or for a reduced price. ( eg 80c? )
3) Pike let the underwriters buy all options after expiry for a reduced price. (eg 80c? ) ( question: is it guaranteed an underwriter exists? and is going to buy all? )

All ways allow pike to get some money as a result of the options.
Only item 2 shows any hope for OA holders. And its a big gamble.

The thing I find interesting is that Pike management and employees each own a boat load of options, so they're not going to idly stand by and watch them expire into nothingness...
And also... the OA's seem to be holding on at 12c WTF!? Does that mean insiders know something we do not?

thoughts?
Ren

[Billy Boy]

.

The thing I find interesting is that Pike management and employees each own a boat load of options, so they're not going to idly stand by and watch them expire into nothingness...
And also... the OA's seem to be holding on at 12c WTF!? Does that mean insiders know something we do not? thoughts?
Ren
I agree.....
I think the options will not be allowed to sink. Toooo much at stake for toooo many !
We can all speculate at this time, but it's about Feb - March the fog will clear.
BB

[JoeBlogs]

I'll still be suprised if the SP is not above 1.50 by April. As I've stated earlier, this latest announcement didn't hold any real suprise for me, so my outlook hasn't changed - in fact I can't understand why people were so shocked by it. Remember markets are forward looking, so as long as they can get towards that 60,000/month by early next year things will still be looking good. I bought into these options with a long term view, this included the possibility that the options will close OTM - if you're not willing to accept this risk, you shouldn't be buying options.

[Hoop]

Yea, but there is nothing on the horizon to boost the SP price above $1.25 over the next 6 months.
And given their 12c current price, the SP needs to be above $1.37 for the OA's to at least break even. ( >~$1.43 to make the same profit if simply the SP was bought )...............
..................And also... the OA's seem to be holding on at 12c WTF!? Does that mean insiders know something we do not?

thoughts?
Ren

When buying shares or whatever...an experienced investor assesses at which price points the balance of the risk v reward = 0 or turns to +ve.
Many use FA, many use TA, most use a mix of the 2 disciplines.

Disciplines have to be learn't to be a successful investor, often many self taught active investors may rubbish these theories and disciplines but deep down they all use them sub-consciously ..e.g Gut feel .. finger on the pulse...etc

With options, there's no difference to the sharemarket disciplines the pricing result is the same ....all the variable factors are assessed by the market on an instant in time which is the exact present time.."NOW"....Not yesterday not in 3 hours time not torrow not next week not next month or 6 months but.."NOW and this precise time point the number of variables are assessed to give a pricing outcome.

The market is made up of a group of buyers and sellers each are individuals but Humans are herd mammals and intereact subconciously using their herding instincts...as each variable factor alters the herds behaviour alters....The secret to predict the herds behaviour and make money out of it is to take a position which eliminates the risk e.g when Risk v Reward = 0.

In the case of PRCOA the price of that risk v Reward = 0 is at this precise minute of writing this post stands at 12c buyers see reward +ve at 11c sellers see risk +ve at 13.9

RenHoek...no offense..but individual feelings count for naught.. its the collective actions of individuals that count ..this is the herd....better called the Marketplace.

Many theorists and Scholars have attempted to similate this market (herd) pricing behaviour by using mathematical formulae. such as Black Scholes and Binominal model pricing being the major two.

Renhoef..there is no hidden agenda with the PRCOA being at 12c, its fairly priced at this point of time "NOW". I suggest you Google theory of option pricing..some of it is extremely heavy going with masses of Mathematical stuff but there is some basic overall conclusional stuff as well...somewhere in the middle you will find a level that will suit you.

Disc: when buying shares I usually like risk/reward of 30/70 no less...so I'm not considered a conservative investor as I take on a lot of risk (30%)....but I eventually win out and make money over time as the odds are in my favour. ..However I'm prone to breaking my own disciplines and "take a punt" ...sadly 90% of the time I crash out..been in the game for 37 years on and off and still haven't learnt not to punt...oh well my excuse is that its fun to punt as investing using discipline constraints can get terribly boring.

Betting on the market using individual emotional thinking and acting on media releases is a mugs game...using RVR I personally would assess it as 80/20 ...sure fire way to lose money.

Hope this helps
Hoop

[JoeBlogs]

Great post Hoop, my sentiments exactly!

[fabs]

60000 t early next year?
yea right
production rate at present not even 20000 t in 6 weeks, unless we get closer to the Pigs may swarm season in the next 3 mts, we better get stuck into some useful brew [ TUI springs to mind ] and stay on it,

[JoeBlogs]

I'm with you on the brew (although I'm a Guiness man), but will beg to differ on the extraction rate. Guess we'll have to wait and see!

[RenHoek]

I'll still be suprised if the SP is not above 1.50 by April.

Well.... ( assuming I own SP's ), if this is the case, I'll be very happy. ( made %50 on money in 6 months.)
But if it doesn't, I still have my original cash. I see that as a win-win.

Hoop. Thanks very much for your post. I'll have to digest it over the long weekend.

But what about the rest of my post?
Any thoughts on Pikes 3 options on the options? (no pun intended, well... not really...)

Thanks everyone! and have a good long weekend.
Ren

[Beagle]

What I find the most fascinating aspect of PRC is that they have never ever come anywhere near meeting any of their previous targets EVER !! and then they issue new targets and a group of people actually believe them, go figure ??????

Is there a psychological term to describe this illogical behaviour ??, perhaps its a derivation of the chook in the hen-house theory, please any tiny morsel will do, it doesn't matter if you don't treat us fairly and with respect and have open lines of communication, just as long as we get the occassional crumb we don't mind and as long as you don't kill us, (i.e. shut down the mine), anything else will do, any conduct you like is okay and we will be good chooks I promise and continue to lay our eggs on a regular basis, (keep coming up with more and more capital whenever asked).

Or is it more like a version of the Stockholm syndrome where the victim actually comes to like the perpetrator of the crime by virtue of their association ? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome

[Lion]

Oh so shrill, Roger.

Here's another psychobabble phrase - Armageddon syndrome.

The past is no indication of the future.

[Lion]

Ren - what's wrong with your option no. 1? It looks the most likely to me.

And JoeBlogs, post # 6971 - love that post, I wish I had written that!

Just watch this negative tide turn when the coal starts flowing!
I can remember when the PRC price surged way above the NZO one - I reckon it could happen again when that coal starts flowing.

[fabs]

Masochists!

[mouse]

Please, please, I want to help out Pike with some cash for more shares. A rights issue? Say 95cents each? Please, please, please.

Masochists!

[Lion]

The thing I find interesting is that Pike management and employees each own a boat load of options, so they're not going to idly stand by and watch them expire into nothingness...


What's your source for this Ren?

[Monkey Poms]

Masochists

Friday's deadline has come and gone, no one prepared to sell me options for a good cause?

Described at the time as worthless at the time of panic.

Guess you really are true believers.

Monkey Poms.

[iceman]

Hoop this is a great post for an Option novice like myself. But I still don't understand why people would want to buy PRCOA at 12c now. If one expects the SP to be at or over $ 1.37 by April, I would prefer to pick up PRC head shares at the current price of $ 1.02. I regard that a lot less risky option given the relatively short time to PRCOA exercise date.
Thanks for your wise input
Iceman

Discl. Sold all PRCOA at a minor loss this week and used proceeds to buy more PRC. So now overweight in PRC.


When buying shares or whatever...an experienced investor assesses at which price points the balance of the risk v reward = 0 or turns to +ve.
Many use FA, many use TA, most use a mix of the 2 disciplines.

Disciplines have to be learn't to be a successful investor, often many self taught active investors may rubbish these theories and disciplines but deep down they all use them sub-consciously ..e.g Gut feel .. finger on the pulse...etc

With options, there's no difference to the sharemarket disciplines the pricing result is the same ....all the variable factors are assessed by the market on an instant in time which is the exact present time.."NOW"....Not yesterday not in 3 hours time not torrow not next week not next month or 6 months but.."NOW and this precise time point the number of variables are assessed to give a pricing outcome.

The market is made up of a group of buyers and sellers each are individuals but Humans are herd mammals and intereact subconciously using their herding instincts...as each variable factor alters the herds behaviour alters....The secret to predict the herds behaviour and make money out of it is to take a position which eliminates the risk e.g when Risk v Reward = 0.

In the case of PRCOA the price of that risk v Reward = 0 is at this precise minute of writing this post stands at 12c buyers see reward +ve at 11c sellers see risk +ve at 13.9

RenHoek...no offense..but individual feelings count for naught.. its the collective actions of individuals that count ..this is the herd....better called the Marketplace.

Many theorists and Scholars have attempted to similate this market (herd) pricing behaviour by using mathematical formulae. such as Black Scholes and Binominal model pricing being the major two.

Renhoef..there is no hidden agenda with the PRCOA being at 12c, its fairly priced at this point of time "NOW". I suggest you Google theory of option pricing..some of it is extremely heavy going with masses of Mathematical stuff but there is some basic overall conclusional stuff as well...somewhere in the middle you will find a level that will suit you.

Disc: when buying shares I usually like risk/reward of 30/70 no less...so I'm not considered a conservative investor as I take on a lot of risk (30%)....but I eventually win out and make money over time as the odds are in my favour. ..However I'm prone to breaking my own disciplines and "take a punt" ...sadly 90% of the time I crash out..been in the game for 37 years on and off and still haven't learnt not to punt...oh well my excuse is that its fun to punt as investing using discipline constraints can get terribly boring.

Betting on the market using individual emotional thinking and acting on media releases is a mugs game...using RVR I personally would assess it as 80/20 ...sure fire way to lose money.

Hope this helps
Hoop

[ggreenlees]

Pike's forecasts downgraded to 'conservative' tonnages
BY MARTA STEEMAN - BusinessDay PRESS

Pike River Coal's new chief executive is bringing a more conservative style to its forecasts and changes to its production plans.

Peter Whittall, an Australian miner of more than 25 years and the company's former general manager of mines, admitted this week the company had been guilty of opting for best case scenarios and failing to deliver.

This week he cut the company's production forecasts for the June 2011 year by half after a review of operations, down to between 320,000 tonnes and 360,000 tonnes of hard coking coal in the year to June 2011.

Whittall said Pike had probably only a 10 per cent chance of meeting the previous forecast.

The company has yet to spell out the effect on its cashflows and revenues for the year to June 2011.

It was talking with customers and finalising details of shipments for the latter part of the year, Whittall said. It did not have any take-or-pay contracts and all contracts were based on available coal. Its two main customers are Indian companies who are also shareholders.

Whittall has decided to sell coal with a slightly higher ash content than the 1 per cent Pike has been marketing. Initial shipments with up to 5 per cent ash and with 2 per cent to 3 per cent ash in the coking coal was up with the best in the world and would result in larger production and less coal being rejected without too much of a revenue trade-off. "I think, to be fair, Pike historically has been guilty of putting out best case scenarios. I've got an opportunity now as the new CEO to put out a different style of forecast which is more likely at the middle to lower range of possibilities rather than at the upper end."

Taking the best case scenario meant that "ducks had to be lined up" to achieve that and that often did not happen.

Whittall, chief executive for just over a month after Gordon Ward resigned in September, admitted he produced the forecasts for the previous board and management who tended to choose the upper end scenario to go with.

"I have no guilt or problems with the previous forecasts. I probably presented a range of options where the upper forecast was usually the one that was gone forward with. In this case I'm just going with the lower end of the range of options."

Whittall said it was "a bit embarrassing" for the company to consistently miss forecasts and have to downgrade. The lower forecasts had resulted from problems with machinery slowing down road development and a redesign of the mining plan. Pike's two "continuous miners" had continued to disappoint. It had bought two German machines that had been effectively redesigned by a New South Wales company, Warratah, for Pike but there had been "fundamental errors" in the redesign. Warratah had gone into voluntary administration and its new owner had no contractual obligations to Pike.

One of the machines was being redesigned at the moment in Greymouth, while the other was still operating in the mine, but Whittall said none of the latter's production had been factored into the new forecasts and the coal that machine produced would be "a bonus", but he did not want to rely on it.

The forecasts were based on production from its performing roadheader and its other ABM20 coal cutting machine which were cutting roadways in the mine dividing it into "suburbs" of coal. The roadway development produced about 20 per cent of the mine's coal while mining the suburbs would produce 80 per cent.

[fabs]

SO LETS BE POSITIVE GENEROUS,
in the last 2-3 yrs they only meet 10% of predictions, so lets vote at the AGM to give Peter a $ 100000.00 Bonus if he can improve a 100% on that.
They may break all the rest of the machinery, but what the heck.

[Hoop]

Hoop this is a great post for an Option novice like myself. But I still don't understand why people would want to buy PRCOA at 12c now. If one expects the SP to be at or over $ 1.37 by April, I would prefer to pick up PRC head shares at the current price of $ 1.02. I regard that a lot less risky option given the relatively short time to PRCOA exercise date.
Thanks for your wise input
Iceman

Discl. Sold all PRCOA at a minor loss this week and used proceeds to buy more PRC. So now overweight in PRC.

Hi Iceman

Why would people still buy at 12c?
A lot of people mistakenly view the exercise date 24th April 2011 as most important factor when thinking options but remember there are still 183 days of life with these options....chances are that the variable factors involved with options would still make buying PRCOA worthwhile now and sell again before the exercise date. However with the time getting shorter towards expiry date, time is the No 1 enemy now and this is an increasing risk, the expiry date is becoming an increasingly dominant fixed negative factor...e.g.. if all the variables stay the same as today (except time) by 22 December these options will be worth 8c for the RVR to = 0. Of course, variable factors are always in a state of flux, such as, a jump in PRC price would increase buyer demand creating an upward price pressure to counter and perhaps exceed the downward pressure due to time on the options. The rewards can still be somewhat substantial if the right conditions eventuate.

The market sees buying options at 11c is a fair price to pay at the "NOW" situation...because anything still may happen ..e.g if PRC heads return to 110 in 3 weeks time and other variables remain the same except time then PRCOA are theoretically worth 13c a 18% increase. There are people out there willing to buy presuming the PRC heads will bounce back up.

[Billy Boy]

Hoop
I think the heads probably bounce back.
!. we had a very big buy-up 8 mil of the heads aways back.
!. The drop off was due to "not good news" Note I did not say "bad news"
!. Buy the look of the sell down it was buy Mums & Dads and above all traders.
The traders dont want any exposure over the long weekend.
Next week will be short so I dont expect any great bounce. But we are looking
at another shipment in the next 2 - 3 weeks, and most probably (hopefully)each month
there after.
Come Feb & things could very different (as you allude too)
So buying the options (11c - 14c) now, could (& should ) be very profitable. I agree with you.
The big risk from here on is another St*ff up or targets not being met.
But what a turn around it will be if production runs ahead targets.
All in all I feel the options will keep pace with the heads up to $1.25. then ......?
Cheers BB
PS enjoying your & some others posts.

[Kees]

wow glad i sold @1.20 .
pay him 100k to double his predictions and meet only 20% of that might as well supply him with shovels and wheelbarrows at least that
would save costs.

[iceman]

Thanks again Hoop. All very well explained and easily understood. Obviously what I see and what the "market sees" are 2 different things on this issue at this point in time.


Hi Iceman

Why would people still buy at 12c?
A lot of people mistakenly view the exercise date 24th April 2011 as most important factor when thinking options but remember there are still 183 days of life with these options....chances are that the variable factors involved with options would still make buying PRCOA worthwhile now and sell again before the exercise date. However with the time getting shorter towards expiry date, time is the No 1 enemy now and this is an increasing risk, the expiry date is becoming an increasingly dominant fixed negative factor...e.g.. if all the variables stay the same as today (except time) by 22 December these options will be worth 8c for the RVR to = 0. Of course, variable factors are always in a state of flux, such as, a jump in PRC price would increase buyer demand creating an upward price pressure to counter and perhaps exceed the downward pressure due to time on the options. The rewards can still be somewhat substantial if the right conditions eventuate.

The market sees buying options at 11c is a fair price to pay at the "NOW" situation...because anything still may happen ..e.g if PRC heads return to 110 in 3 weeks time and other variables remain the same except time then PRCOA are theoretically worth 13c a 18% increase. There are people out there willing to buy presuming the PRC heads will bounce back up.

[RenHoek]

The thing I find interesting is that Pike management and employees each own a boat load of options, so they're not going to idly stand by and watch them expire into nothingness...

What's your source for this Ren?

Mainly posts on this forum.
Heres some from Baddracy. #6323 and #6700
They report both Peters and Gordons holdings as....

Peter Whittall
211,269 Options
593,867 Ordinary Shares
1,682,400 Partly Paid Ordinary Shares

Gordon Ward
234,476 Options
546,592 Ordinary Shares
1,000,000 Partly Paid Ordinary Shares

Question for Baddracy, how did you find that information out about Peter?
Thanks!

[RenHoek]

Hoop this is a great post for an Option novice like myself. But I still don't understand why people would want to buy PRCOA at 12c now. If one expects the SP to be at or over $ 1.37 by April, I would prefer to pick up PRC head shares at the current price of $ 1.02. I regard that a lot less risky option given the relatively short time to PRCOA exercise date.
Thanks for your wise input
Iceman
Discl. Sold all PRCOA at a minor loss this week and used proceeds to buy more PRC. So now overweight in PRC.

Well put Iceman. I'm of the same opinion as you.
And thanks too Hoop for your posts. Its great reading.

Discl:
Sold my PRCOA's for 15.2c and PRC's for $1.09 on the morning of the 19th Oct.
I'm tempted to buy back into PRC but am waiting till after Pike release their "revised funding requirements" in November.

ie

Pike River is also evaluating revised funding requirements, including
repayment of the New Zealand Oil & Gas short-term facility due in December.
Discussions are underway with various parties, with further announcements
expected during November 2010, which will include details of the financial
impact of these developments

I would also like to buy back into PRCOA's given the price advantage we are at now.
But need to be convinced they're anything more than a high-risk gamble at this point.
So far that hasn't happened.


Thanks everyone!
Ren

[winner69]

Surprised there has been little if any mention of what operating costs might be when they eventually start mining the stuff

All well and good taking guesses of production rates and hoping the price stays up at current levels .... but any insights into how much it will cost to get a tionne of the stuff to the customer .... things have changed a lot since anybody discussed this .... and you guys dion't seem to have much faith in what management says so any reported indicative number probably is crap anyway

[Baddarcy]

Mainly posts on this forum.
Heres some from Baddracy. #6323 and #6700
They report both Peters and Gordons holdings as....

Peter Whittall
211,269 Options
593,867 Ordinary Shares
1,682,400 Partly Paid Ordinary Shares

Gordon Ward
234,476 Options
546,592 Ordinary Shares
1,000,000 Partly Paid Ordinary Shares

Question for Baddracy, how did you find that information out about Peter?
Thanks!

NZX Announcements, they make an announement each time a senior managers holding changes in any way

[JoeBlogs]

and you guys dion't seem to have much faith in what management says

I didn't have much faith in what former management said, I'll reserve judgement on the new guy. So far so good.

[swissboy]

The AGM will be held in less than 3 weeks and promisses made, quoting from their blurb
( Events that have occurred subsequent to 30 June 2010 will be covered and S/H discussion invited )
To think that Peter W will be conservative on this information will be interesting. It is clever to be the new broom and point out the faults of previous management but you need to show some improvements since your appointment to appease your shareholders, I think

The most important point is that at tomorrows AGM, NZOG can not help but make some comment on their largest non- oil investment in NZ.

[the machine]

I would like to see some weekly production stats and roadway meterage on the pike website during this commisioning period.

M

[Robomo]

I would like to see some weekly production stats and roadway meterage on the pike website during this commisioning period.

M

Precisely what I will be asking at the AGM on 15 Nov at the mine. If it's good enough to show weekly tunnel achievements prior to hitting the Graben then it's good enough to show the same sort of advances now. It would give some objective indication to progress rather than the nasty quarterly surprises that have become the norm.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Please, please, I want to help out Pike with some cash for more shares. A rights issue? Say 95cents each? Please, please, please.

Great tongue in cheek post this. Brilliant dry humour.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Surprised there has been little if any mention of what operating costs might be when they eventually start mining the stuff

All well and good taking guesses of production rates and hoping the price stays up at current levels .... but any insights into how much it will cost to get a tionne of the stuff to the customer .... things have changed a lot since anybody discussed this ...

Well spotted. If the mine is struggling to run now, I think the ramp-up will inevitably see costs increase exponentially, and the project is basically bankrupt as it is, living hand-to-mouth off whatever funding packages it's shareholders can put together. Another bail-out is on the way soon.
Maybe it's time to mothball the mine. Sometimes the sensible decision is to stop throwing good money after bad. They got 40,000 tonnes of coal out over the years - that's a great effort in anyone's books but it's just not enough. At some stage in the future maybe someone can make an economic go out of this mine but PRC has just been a series of fiasco's....time to admit that a barely break-even mine is not worth perservering with.

[blockhead]

Did you ever run into Sniper Logen ??

Didn't think what he had was contagious

[sheepy]

How much is the share price going to prop when they need the next bail out. Or will they just give NZO a couple more pounds of flesh. The anticipation is killing me, I am being conservative but I think it will get to .95 before the end of the year. Hopefully lower so all us clever people can buy in again, then wait for the next announcment that says that they actually got some coal onto a train, and sell them again. Great traders share, it can carry on like this for as long as it wants.

[Oiler]

Did you ever run into Sniper Logen ??

Didn't think what he had was contagious

LOL Blockhead..... Logen is the reincarnated Sniper :mad ;:

You can tell from the writing language :D very hard to hide.

[Logen Ninefingers]

LOL Blockhead..... Logen is the reincarnated Sniper :mad ;:

You can tell from the writing language :D very hard to hide.

I don't know who this Sniper is, but I hope he cut Pike a bit of slack and gave them a chance to prove themselves, like I've done. I'm the first to stand up and salute Pike for getting away 40,000 tonnes of coal over the years, and they deserve a hearty congratulations on that, but I'd say that you have to call a halt at some stage to the endless bail-outs and capital raisings.

[mouse]

I don't know who this Sniper is, but I hope he cut Pike a bit of slack and gave them a chance to prove themselves, like I've done. I'm the first to stand up and salute Pike for getting away 40,000 tonnes of coal over the years, and they deserve a hearty congratulations on that, but I'd say that you have to call a halt at some stage to the endless bail-outs and capital raisings.

I am now almost wondering if we should sell it. Overseas. For cash and a profit. Can anyone put up a good argument why it should not be sold? Or be put down? Monkey Poms, are you interested in buying a mine? How much time are we going to give Management before its sold. Or is this a very clever Management Buy-Out strategy?
Do we have Conspiracy Theory posters? Comments welcome.

[RRR]

Coal India(state owned) sold 10% stake few days ago for I think $3 Billion and it got subscribed 15 times!!! Biggest IPO in recent times over there. They are looking for acquisitions abroad-they can't get enough of that black stuff. If PRC becomes a stable producer(??) of coal, they will be taken over surely. But underground mining is risky business-I feel sorry for the management.
Disc-still holding

[Logen Ninefingers]

November 2004

SC: How much money is going to be required to fund the mine's development? One reader suggests it will cost between $80 m and $100 m, will take 18 months to come on stream and will produce 100 m tons at $US90 per ton rising to $130 per ton. Does this sound sensible?

GW: The funding requirement will be approximately $NZ75 million which includes approximately $10 million in working capital for the mine. About 18 months to come on stream is about right. We're trying to accelerate it. It depends on the transport option. It will take one year to construct the access road, including a 2.2 kilometre tunnel, to the mine. We've got to upgrade the existing access track, install a new section of road and install a coal slurry pipeline down to a de-watering complex.

[Logen Ninefingers]

August 2007

Pike River Coal invested $56.9 million in its West Coast mine development during the year to the end of June, taking the total invested to $100.4 million.
Releasing its annual results today, the company also said it used some of the $85 million raised in an initial public offering in July to repay $16.5 million in short term loans from shareholders.
The annual result should be viewed in the context of the pre-production status of the company's development activities, Pike River said.
Following the IPO in July, Pike River's largest shareholder NZ Oil and Gas, which has a 31 per cent stake, said it had agreed to provide up to $25 million extra to help develop the mine.

[Logen Ninefingers]

11:00 AM Monday Sep 20, 2010

Pike River Coal seeks more money for its mine.
Pike River Coal shares dropped 3.6 per cent after the coal mine developer said it requires more short-term funding to sustain its rate of underground mine development.
The company invested over $25 million in Pike River mine assets in 2010, while the total investment in mine assets at the end of June balance date was $288m.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Wed, 20 Oct 2010

A production downgrade of as much as 45% by coking coal specialist Pike River Coal has prompted a revision of its funding requirements - and the possibility about $25 million will be wiped off its earnings before interest, tax and amortisation next year.

[Logen Ninefingers]

So we needed $75 million to get to 1 million tonnes production a year. Was going to take 18 months to get there.

$288 million invested in mine assets.....how much more has been spent over and above investment in the mine assets? How much is the project in debt?

[brucey09]

Senors.
Can some person ask at the anual meeting why Mr. Ward leave fast for me.
thankyou

[Baddarcy]

Going by history, we should get the a quarterly report today, there are 3 things i will be looking for in it:

1) Funding
2) how much coal we have in the yard
3) current production levels
4) Shipment news

but suspect we will not get anything new regarding 1 & 2, for 3 we will only hear some vague numbers about progress in meters, not actual tonnes of coal per day/week/month but i am fairly confident they will say something about a shipment, it's been 2 months since the last one and unless the ABM20 has blown up and taken hydro with it, they must have a reasonable pile of coal by now.

[Monkey Poms]

Two very good posts over the last couple of days... Hoops post 6972 - wish I had the insight to write that one.
The second an article written by Marta Steeman published by Business press and posted by ggreenlees, his first
post to this forum (6985).
Ref Peter Whittall. By changing the ash level at which Pike will market coal sales in future.
This is very good news for Pikers, one simple statement eliminates any future conflict with
the Indians over coal quality, which may delay payment.

The job of finding a buyer for the coal washer waste, solved.
Financially Pike will lose a little of the premium they would expect to receive and gain a lot
by earning top prices for the slurry.
Pike's coal will still be far superior in quality over the Australian Queensland coking coals.
It is difficult to work out the financial benefit unless you know the numbers, however I will
put my head on the block with an estimate. IF Pike were on full production the extra revenue
would buy Pike two extra AB20s per year.

Monkey Poms.

[Pete]

Going by history, we should get the a quarterly report today, there are 3 things i will be looking for in it:

1) Funding
2) how much coal we have in the yard
3) current production levels
4) Shipment news

but suspect we will not get anything new regarding 1 & 2, for 3 we will only hear some vague numbers about progress in meters, not actual tonnes of coal per day/week/month but i am fairly confident they will say something about a shipment, it's been 2 months since the last one and unless the ABM20 has blown up and taken hydro with it, they must have a reasonable pile of coal by now.

With regards to 1), this was in the NZOG activities update;

"On 30 September, Pike River Coal made the first call on a new NZ$25m short-term funding facility
provided by NZOG. The first draw down of $3m included $600,000 in establishment and
monitoring fees paid back to NZOG."

[ggreenlees]

NZOG offers Pike River reassurance

NZPA - stuff.co.nz - Last updated 15:11 27/10/2010

New Zealand Oil & Gas bosses made an effort at their annual meeting to reassure shareholders about the company's relationship with delay-hit Pike River Coal.

At the same time, they noted NZOG had been required to provide more support than expected for the West Coast mine development.

Last month, NZOG agreed to provide Pike River with a short term working capital facility of up to $25m, which has an interest rate of 13 percent and is to be repaid in December.

NZOG has also issued a US$29m ($38.8m) convertible bond at an interest rate of 10 percent, repayable by March 2012. NZOG has the option to convert that to Pike River shares, and has the option of entering an offtake agreement to buy certain quantities of Pike River coking coal at market prices.

At NZOG's annual meeting today, chief executive David Salisbury said NZOG had contributed a total of $85m in equity to Pike River. Its 29.4 percent stake in Pike River's ordinary shares had a market value of about $120m. NZOG also had more than 17 million options.

The level of support being provided to Pike River was beyond what NZOG anticipated a year ago, Mr Salisbury said.

"However, NZOG has commissioned its own technical and management reviews and believes that, despite the delays in the mine reaching full production, the fundamental value of the project remains intact.

"While the Pike River mine is still to deliver on its potential, NZOG considers that it has a positive long term outlook."

NZOG chairman Tony Radford said the Pike River coal mine development had proved much more challenging than originally contemplated, "but that fact does not detract from the first class coking coal it produces and the value it will represent once it has reached steady state production".

NZOG's quarterly activities report for the three months to September, published today, said the new $25m working capital facility would sustain the final stages of the development of the Pike River underground mine and the acquisition of additional mining equipment.

At the same time it was protecting NZOG's significant investment in Pike River and providing a healthy return on investment, the report said.

On September 30 Pike River made the first call on the $25m facility. The first draw down of $3m included $600,000 in establishment and monitoring fees paid back to NZOG.

"The new arrangements are in the best interests of both companies. Pike River is now producing its highly valued coking coal and the first two shipments have been exported," NZOG said.

"However, with the underground mine roadways still being developed and hydro-mining equipment in the commissioning phase, Pike River currently requires further working capital."

NZOG also received $980,000 in interest payments on its Pike River convertible bond during the quarter.

[patrick]

Does the fact that NZO hold so many Options give holders any additional hope?

[JoeBlogs]

Does the fact that NZO hold so many Options give holders any additional hope?

Not really. The main concern for me at the moment is funding requirements, and as NZO already owns such a large share of PRC they're not going to let them get too badly pushed around when seeking finance. PRC are already doing their best to perform so there's not much more they can do to increase the end value of the options. If they meet (and hopefully beat) forecasts over the next few months, there's no way in hell the options will close out of the money (perhaps barring another gloabal financial meltdown).

[Baddarcy]

Not really. The main concern for me at the moment is funding requirements, and as NZO already owns such a large share of PRC they're not going to let them get too badly pushed around when seeking finance. PRC are already doing their best to perform so there's not much more they can do to increase the end value of the options. If they meet (and hopefully beat) forecasts over the next few months, there's no way in hell the options will close out of the money (perhaps barring another gloabal financial meltdown).

Agreed, i imagine NZO doesn't care either way about the options, they will be holding them simply to avoid any dilution should they get exercised.

[Arbitrage]

Sitting in the NZO AGM yesterday it quicly became apparent that barring a major surge in oil prices, the only potential for income growth for NZO in the medium term (they have no planned drilling programme in the next 12 months) was through PRC starting to perform. There is no way that NZO could allow PRC to fail before they sell probably in 2 or 3 years time.

[ggreenlees]

NZOG questioned once more over stake in Pike River Coal

NICK KRAUSE - BusinessDay - The PRESS - Last updated 05:00 28/10/2010

Shareholders at the New Zealand Oil and Gas annual meeting in Auckland yesterday questioned the company's retention of a 30 per cent stake in delay-hit coalminer Pike River Coal - the same question asked at last year's meeting.

Shareholders were also nervous about NZOG's provision of a short-term working capital facility of up to $25 million in late September to Pike River and payable in full on December 15.

Pike River has already made the first call on the funding facility, drawing down $3m in late September, which included $600,000 in establishment and monitoring fees repaid to NZOG.

NZOG also received $980,000 in interest payments on its Pike River convertible bond during the quarter. Chairman Tony Radford said NZOG did not plan to get out of Pike River any time soon.

"Pike River is a project that NZOG has been involved with for a long time and fostered its development," he said. "Coal is not really NZOG's mainstream business. This investment is more historical. It is, I believe, important to maintain and enhance the value of that investment."

[Logen Ninefingers]

So Pike River ran out of cash in late September....the NBR had it right. Imagine if NZO didn't stump up with cash all the time....they'd be a dead (blue) duck.

[peat]

well yeh imagine lots of things LN
but didnt we know that NZOG would be there so its like having a Govt guarantee in some ways isnt it. lowers the risk.

[Logen Ninefingers]

NZOG won't rule out more cash for Pike River
By Grant Bradley 5:30 AM Thursday Oct 28, 2010

New Zealand Oil & Gas has not ruled out further funding of Pike River Coal on top of a short-term $25 million loan which must be repaid in December.

NZOG's chairman, Tony Radford, said Pike was still working out the way in which it would repay the loan.

The coal company is spending the money on getting its West Coast mine towards full production after a series of delays and additional fundraising.

Asked during NZOG's annual meeting in Auckland yesterday whether it would put in more for the offshoot company, Radford said he could not rule it out.

"I don't think it would be appropriate for me to come out with a blanket statement to say Pike won't get any more investment."

=============================

How the hell are they going to repay the loan in December?????? We are on the cusp of November, they've already drawn down $3 million just to get them through the end of September....the whole $25 million is going to be gone during December, and they don't have any cash available to pay it back. Even if they had some spectacular good news to make people stump up converting their options to shares, that's happening in April 2011. That's 6 months away.

This situation is becoming absurd.

[JoeBlogs]

This is a bridging facility, so it will be repaid with whatever more permanent option they come up with. They'll either get NZO to extend it, or arange longer-term finance with another provider untill they have the cash to pay it off.

[Pete]

They must be ready for another shipment very soon, (with all the roadway and the start of hydro mining) that will easily pay back the 3M+

[manxman]

There has been no shipment now for some time. Either they are going for a full Panamax, or the mine is in deep doggy doo-doo.
Assuming a full Panamax, then that is about $NZ20 million, less costs to ships hold. Say about $16 million in the bank. So the money will be in large lumps. If they are seriously mining coal, then they can probably get a normal working capital arrangement with the bank advancing money against the stockpile. I expect they will be in this situation by March 2011, but they will be trying for a bit earlier because NZOG is certainly extracting its pound of flesh. They won't book the ship space until they can see the coal, so by the time the ship is loading, they may have a futher 20k tonnes at the coal prep plant and at Ikamatua. It's probably quite hard to forecast the funding requirement if they start shipping in quantity.

If the mine exceeds expectations (stop sniggering that boy in the back row) then NZO may be repaid from a normal working capital facility. Changing the ash specification will reduce the amount of mined/unsold coal and bring forward the cash flow. It should also increase reserves and reduce unit costs.

The announcement of a shipping date and quantity will clarify everything, but PW seems to be firmly out of the prediction game.

[tony64peter]

Two DXC"s to Stillwater tonight. Nothing there, a couple of k's from Ika. Not seen a coal train stop there before??????????????

[Logen Ninefingers]

They must be ready for another shipment very soon, (with all the roadway and the start of hydro mining) that will easily pay back the 3M+

It's $25 million - in December, after they've continued drawing down to keep the mine operating, they have to pay back $25 million. If they make enough to pay back NZO, they still need to have to have enough left over to keep the mine operating, otherwise they......need to secure bridging finance, probably from NZO. Once bridging finance has been secured, they will have a time-frame in which they need to make enough money to pay back NZO, and then they still need to have to have enough left over to keep the mine operating, otherwise they......need to secure bridging finance, probably from NZO. Once bridging finance has been secured, they will have a time-frame in which they need to make enough money to pay back NZO.......

[JoeBlogs]

It's $25 million - in December, after they've continued drawing down to keep the mine operating, they have to pay back $25 million. If they make enough to pay back NZO, they still need to have to have enough left over to keep the mine operating, otherwise they......need to secure bridging finance, probably from NZO. Once bridging finance has been secured, they will have a time-frame in which they need to make enough money to pay back NZO, and then they still need to have to have enough left over to keep the mine operating, otherwise they......need to secure bridging finance, probably from NZO. Once bridging finance has been secured, they will have a time-frame in which they need to make enough money to pay back NZO.......

If they'd only drawn-down 3 mil by end of September, that would mean a further draw-down of 22 mil over 2.5 months - pretty unlikely, even if there are no shipments by then.

[bull....]

Its inevitable they will have to do another cash call soon all it will take is 1 more mine mishap.

[Pete]

It's $25 million - in December, after they've continued drawing down to keep the mine operating, they have to pay back $25 million. If they make enough to pay back NZO, they still need to have to have enough left over to keep the mine operating, otherwise they......need to secure bridging finance, probably from NZO. Once bridging finance has been secured, they will have a time-frame in which they need to make enough money to pay back NZO, and then they still need to have to have enough left over to keep the mine operating, otherwise they......need to secure bridging finance, probably from NZO. Once bridging finance has been secured, they will have a time-frame in which they need to make enough money to pay back NZO.......

I'll play the optimist.
It the conservative estimate is 320,000 tons by June, that would be around 40,000 tons/month over the next 8 months or around $12M/month of revenue (if my calcs are correct). That should be plenty to keep the mine running and pay off some debt. Then it ramps up from there...

[Baddarcy]

The announcement of a shipping date and quantity will clarify everything, but PW seems to be firmly out of the prediction game.

Well we are due a quarterly report this week, so your question should be answered tomorrow.

As an aside big volumes of shares traded (by PRC standards anyway) again the last two days.....

[Monkey Poms]

There has been no shipment now for some time. Either they are going for a full Panamax, or the mine is in deep doggy doo-doo.
Assuming a full Panamax, then that is about $NZ20 million, less costs to ships hold. Say about $16 million in the bank. So the money will be in large lumps. If they are seriously mining coal, then they can probably get a normal working capital arrangement with the bank advancing money against the stockpile. I expect they will be in this situation by March 2011, but they will be trying for a bit earlier because NZOG is certainly extracting its pound of flesh. They won't book the ship space until they can see the coal, so by the time the ship is loading, they may have a futher 20k tonnes at the coal prep plant and at Ikamatua. It's probably quite hard to forecast the funding requirement if they start shipping in quantity.

If the mine exceeds expectations (stop sniggering that boy in the back row) then NZO may be repaid from a normal working capital facility. Changing the ash specification will reduce the amount of mined/unsold coal and bring forward the cash flow. It should also increase reserves and reduce unit costs.

The announcement of a shipping date and quantity will clarify everything, but PW seems to be firmly out of the prediction game.

Good post Manxman, it shows a lot of foresight, your ref to ship space, and the 20K tonne cushion at the mine and at Ikamatua spot on.
PW is not going to repeat the same mistake as his predecessor or HE will be in deep doggy doo-doo.

Monkey Poms.

[Monkey Poms]

11:00 AM Monday Sep 20, 2010

Pike River Coal seeks more money for its mine. Pike River Coal shares dropped 3.6 per cent after the coal mine developer said it requires more short-term funding to sustain its rate of underground mine development. The company invested over $25 million in Pike River mine assets in 2010, while the total investment in mine assets at the end of June balance date was $288m.

Despite all the problems associated with Pike in the past, including the drip feed of funds, my view is that Pike was massively underfunded from the start and, because of this, has tried to do things, " On the cheap". I don't know about you guys but $288m plus a parcel of debt owed to NZO of $25 million seems to be value for money from where we are today.

Pikers, in view of the position we are NOW currently in, what do you think the mine is worth? Should you want to sell the mine for the asset value plus the repayment of the NZO loan, there would be a queue of Japanese, Chinese, Australian, Indian and maybe a few Pom's willing to take it off your hands.

I have experienced cash flow problems personally on a few projects with being involved with coal. Pike, with a decent production run, will pull the debt back, very quickly. My glass is still half full rather than half empty on this issue. I expected the production downgrade. The inadequate funding from the beginning resulted in the wrong equipment being purchased for the excavation of the roadways. However, AB20's were not available at the beginning of the project. Hands up any of you Pikers who haven't made any mistakes in the past. I am in as a long term value investor and have no interest in influencing short term share price movements. I am confident that the coal will come out of the ground, barring earthquakes, and will remain a loyal shareholder until it does.

Monkey Poms.

[David Chancer]

I am just new on the scene and curious to know if all the possible production problems have been identified and been or being resolved.
Is the pipeline from the mine face to the washing plant the correct size for the aggregate size and water pressure?
Is the washing plant fully tested at capacity?

[Dr_Who]

If NZers dont want PRC, than sell your shares.

Sooner or later someone will T/O PRC. Like all good assets, it will eventually end up in overseas buyers hands.

[mouse]

Dont mention Earthquakes!

Despite all the problems associated with Pike in the past, including the drip feed of funds, my view is that Pike was massively underfunded from the start and, because of this, has tried to do things, " On the cheap". I don't know about you guys but $288m plus a parcel of debt owed to NZO of $25 million seems to be value for money from where we are today.

Pikers, in view of the position we are NOW currently in, what do you think the mine is worth? Should you want to sell the mine for the asset value plus the repayment of the NZO loan, there would be a queue of Japanese, Chinese, Australian, Indian and maybe a few Pom's willing to take it off your hands.

I have experienced cash flow problems personally on a few projects with being involved with coal. Pike, with a decent production run, will pull the debt back, very quickly. My glass is still half full rather than half empty on this issue. I expected the production downgrade. The inadequate funding from the beginning resulted in the wrong equipment being purchased for the excavation of the roadways. However, AB20's were not available at the beginning of the project. Hands up any of you Pikers who haven't made any mistakes in the past. I am in as a long term value investor and have no interest in influencing short term share price movements. I am confident that the coal will come out of the ground, barring earthquakes, and will remain a loyal shareholder until it does.

Monkey Poms.

[bung5]

If NZers dont want PRC, than sell your shares.

Sooner or later someone will T/O PRC. Like all good assets, it will eventually end up in overseas buyers hands.

Well the indians already own a sizeable chunk and is more than likley that NZO will sell there 30% stake to an asian (soon to be ) customer.

[JoeBlogs]

Quarterly report is fairly benign looking.

Operating cashflows during the quarter around -$20 mil (including procedes of $6 mil), so I guess you'd expect the remaining $22 mil on the NZO facility to last until at least the end of the year. Hopefully by then we'll get some decent production.

Re-engineered continuous miner due back in operation by Christmas.

Finanlising details for next shipment with higher ash levels, expected later this year - no idea given of how much coal is stockpiled, or what the shipment size will be.

[neopoleII]

10 grand for a live webcam is all it takes to watch the stockpile grow, not hard to calculate whats going on from then.

[tony64peter]

From the Report They are burning 2M a week, as at Sept30 only 22M available. So only 14M left

[JoeBlogs]

From the Report They are burning 2M a week, as at Sept30 only 22M available. So only 14M left

Yip, so they'll want to be selling some coal by mid December at the very latest.

[bull....]

I took it NZOG dont want to providing cash everytime so you S/H should get ready to stump up some more coin in the new year.

[the machine]

Well the indians already own a sizeable chunk and is more than likley that NZO will sell there 30% stake to an asian (soon to be ) customer.

I doubt if NZO would be selling anything for a few years as they want full value for their share and it will take a couple of years at least for the prc sp to reflect full value.

m

[Baddarcy]

From the Report They are burning 2M a week, as at Sept30 only 22M available. So only 14M left

They had $3m on hand as well, and the spend for this quarter is planned to be $3m lower than the last quarter, so assuming 13 weeks in a quarter, that means they have $25m / $1.75m per week costs = 14 weeks of cash left, which will take us to early Jan.

So to not run out of money we need to be producing 20,000 per month by the end of December.

Doesn't sound too hard to do given the quarterly report said that hydro is currently at 50% capacity according to todays report (full capcaity is 800,000 tonnes per year, so am assuming it is running at 400,000..?)

[geezy]

lets all request for a tour of the mine and production line ? :D

[bung5]

I doubt if NZO would be selling anything for a few years as they want full value for their share and it will take a couple of years at least for the prc sp to reflect full value.

m

Yes that's right, but they will sell none the less and it does not seem likley that it will be to NZlanders hands.

[Kees]

does not seem likley that it will be to NZlanders hands

Can't see why not the kiwi funds will be well funded by then and looking for a home?

[whirly]

hahahahaha....unbelievable

PRC
29/10/2010 15:02
GENERAL

REL: 1502 HRS Pike River Coal Limited

GENERAL: PRC: Pike River named NZX50's top online communicator

29 October 2010

PIKE RIVER NAMED NZX50'S TOP ON-LINE COMMUNICATOR

Pike River Coal Ltd has been named New Zealand's best on-line communicator of
the country's top 50 listed companies.

The company has taken first place in the 2010 Best Investor Website Awards
(BIWA), ahead of second placed Fletcher Building and third placed Goodman
Fielder.

The annual awards, organised by Wired Internet Group in conjunction with
Christchurch Polytechnic's Information design lecturer Bruce Russell, are
endorsed by the New Zealand Shareholders Association, and evaluate how well
NZX50 listed companies' websites meet the needs of investors.

Pike River scored 90 out of a possible 100 - the highest in the awards'
four-year history.

Pike River Relationships Manager Helene Ambler says the award is very
encouraging.

"Our website is a critical and integral part of our invest
or communications
tool box. This sort of acknowledgement recognises that we are hitting the
mark in how we communicate on-line with investors.

"Our shareholders demand and deserve transparency in communications and we
are committed to ensuring they get what they need from our site.

"We've found that all sections of our site are visited regularly. Our
Investor Centre, which provides links to our quarterly, interim and annual
reports as well as information on analyst reports, gets a lot of traffic.

"Investors also make good use of the 'About Us' section that provides them
with a vehicle with which to make direct contact with company
representatives. This is an important feature of the site as it personalises
communication which is important to our investors and to us."

Miss Ambler says the company is thrilled with the win. "However, there is
always room for improvement. This award has inspired us to endeavour to
continually improve the site and ensure it consistently serves the need
s of
our investors."

Ends

[bung5]

does not seem likley that it will be to NZlanders hands

Can't see why not the kiwi funds will be well funded by then and looking for a home?

The stake will likley be sold with the coal option that NZO has to the remainder supply of coal. This will make it attractive to an overseas consumer.

[Dr_Who]

The stake will likley be sold with the coal option that NZO has to the remainder supply of coal. This will make it attractive to an overseas consumer.

You are onto it Bung.

[dsurf]

Hope it is a rich chinese company - also it is only 30% not 100% - who owns FBU SKC AIA etc etc

[Kees]

but dont forget the greenies snail hunters & co they have a reputation over there to stop coal deals into foreign hands.

[Logen Ninefingers]

hahahahaha....unbelievable

PRC
29/10/2010 15:02
GENERAL

REL: 1502 HRS Pike River Coal Limited

GENERAL: PRC: Pike River named NZX50's top online communicator

29 October 2010

PIKE RIVER NAMED NZX50'S TOP ON-LINE COMMUNICATOR

Pike River Coal Ltd has been named New Zealand's best on-line communicator of
the country's top 50 listed companies.

The company has taken first place in the 2010 Best Investor Website Awards
(BIWA), ahead of second placed Fletcher Building and third placed Goodman
Fielder.

The annual awards, organised by Wired Internet Group in conjunction with
Christchurch Polytechnic's Information design lecturer Bruce Russell, are
endorsed by the New Zealand Shareholders Association, and evaluate how well
NZX50 listed companies' websites meet the needs of investors.

Pike River scored 90 out of a possible 100 - the highest in the awards'
four-year history.

Pike River Relationships Manager Helene Ambler says the award is very
encouraging.

"Our website is a critical and integral part of our invest
or communications
tool box. This sort of acknowledgement recognises that we are hitting the
mark in how we communicate on-line with investors.

"Our shareholders demand and deserve transparency in communications and we
are committed to ensuring they get what they need from our site.

"We've found that all sections of our site are visited regularly. Our
Investor Centre, which provides links to our quarterly, interim and annual
reports as well as information on analyst reports, gets a lot of traffic.

"Investors also make good use of the 'About Us' section that provides them
with a vehicle with which to make direct contact with company
representatives. This is an important feature of the site as it personalises
communication which is important to our investors and to us."

Miss Ambler says the company is thrilled with the win. "However, there is
always room for improvement. This award has inspired us to endeavour to
continually improve the site and ensure it consistently serves the need
s of
our investors."

Ends

The worlds gone mad.

[Hoop]

Pike River Coal Ltd has been named New Zealand’s best on-line communicator of the country’s top 50 listed companies.
The company has taken first place in the 2010 Best Investor Website Awards (BIWA)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/prcimage.jpg

[Monkey Poms]

The worlds gone mad.

Don't worry Logen, a simple mistake, someone read the list upside down.

Monkey Poms.

[the machine]

Pike River Coal Ltd has been named New Zealand’s best on-line communicator of the country’s top 50 listed companies.
The company has taken first place in the 2010 Best Investor Website Awards (BIWA)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/prcimage.jpg

good one hoop

M

[kiwi_on_OE]

I think some web designers might be a little miffed by your attempted association with Pike! ;-)

Thought I'd try a few numbers on Pike.

ABM20 doing 13m/day. 5m wide cut by 3m high, maybe it's 4m, but 3m will do. So about 200m3/day. I'll assume they are working 5 day wks, so about 4000m3/mth. I've seen coal density varying around 1t/m3 but with a large variation, I think it might be about 1t/m3, which gives 4kt/mth. Nearly 2mths since last shipment, so it could've produced about 8kt.

Believing that the hydro miner is constrained by roading and looking at the plan on their recent report it looks like hydro mining will start on the 'first panel', looks to me about 25m wide by 150m long and if they cut it out to 3m high then it would be about 10kt.

Don't know how long it will take, but I wonder if they may line up another 20kt shipment around about AGM time (15 Nov), and another $6m. Or wait for a bit longer to do a 40kt shipment (I think someone said that would be a full ship, rather than half a ship).

If they actually follow their plan then the hydro miner will be right behind the ABM into the 'second panel' for a 50m by 250m chunk. Using 3m height again might translate to about another 30kt mined, due by the end of the qtr.

Another way of putting it is that an ABM can prepare 30kt for hydro mining in a qtr. That's about $9m from past numbers.

Last qtr the cash exp were $26m. I assume that will be approx constant going fwd.

The second ABM in Jan/Feb will also only be able to 'facilitate' another 30kt/$9m per qtr. But don't forget they have to pay $5m for it.

They really need that reconditioned continuous miner repaired and working. By Xmas they say. No idea what it will be capable of, hopefully a lot as they need 100kt/qtr to break even - ish.

So first qtr was 20kt shipped, second qtr might be 50kt shipped/avail. So the second half, to meet their plan would be 250-290kt.

Of course if the height dug out is 4m instead of 3m then the numbers improve by 33%. If the density is +/-20% from 1t/m3 then it makes another big difference etc. etc.

[the machine]

I think some web designers might be a little miffed by your attempted association with Pike! ;-)

Thought I'd try a few numbers on Pike.

ABM20 doing 13m/day. 5m wide cut by 3m high, maybe it's 4m, but 3m will do. So about 200m3/day. I'll assume they are working 5 day wks, so about 4000m3/mth. I've seen coal density varying around 1t/m3 but with a large variation, I think it might be about 1t/m3, which gives 4kt/mth. Nearly 2mths since last shipment, so it could've produced about 8kt.

Believing that the hydro miner is constrained by roading and looking at the plan on their recent report it looks like hydro mining will start on the 'first panel', looks to me about 25m wide by 150m long and if they cut it out to 3m high then it would be about 10kt.

Don't know how long it will take, but I wonder if they may line up another 20kt shipment around about AGM time (15 Nov), and another $6m. Or wait for a bit longer to do a 40kt shipment (I think someone said that would be a full ship, rather than half a ship).

If they actually follow their plan then the hydro miner will be right behind the ABM into the 'second panel' for a 50m by 250m chunk. Using 3m height again might translate to about another 30kt mined, due by the end of the qtr.

Another way of putting it is that an ABM can prepare 30kt for hydro mining in a qtr. That's about $9m from past numbers.

Last qtr the cash exp were $26m. I assume that will be approx constant going fwd.

The second ABM in Jan/Feb will also only be able to 'facilitate' another 30kt/$9m per qtr. But don't forget they have to pay $5m for it.

They really need that reconditioned continuous miner repaired and working. By Xmas they say. No idea what it will be capable of, hopefully a lot as they need 100kt/qtr to break even - ish.

So first qtr was 20kt shipped, second qtr might be 50kt shipped/avail. So the second half, to meet their plan would be 250-290kt.

Of course if the height dug out is 4m instead of 3m then the numbers improve by 33%. If the density is +/-20% from 1t/m3 then it makes another big difference etc. etc.





Would not the hydro mining cut the full height of the coal seam? - average 7m

The ABM20 cuts the roadway through coal and bolts the roof [into rock]

As regards the website, it was judged #1 without weekly production data - shareholders are very keen to see weekly production data, me included.
I won't be at the AGM but maybe those attending can raise this point.

M

[Monkey Poms]

I think some web designers might be a little miffed by your attempted association with Pike! ;-)

Thought I'd try a few numbers on Pike.

ABM20 doing 13m/day. 5m wide cut by 3m high, maybe it's 4m, but 3m will do. So about 200m3/day. I'll assume they are working 5 day wks, so about 4000m3/mth. I've seen coal density varying around 1t/m3 but with a large variation, I think it might be about 1t/m3, which gives 4kt/mth. Nearly 2mths since last shipment, so it could've produced about 8kt.

Believing that the hydro miner is constrained by roading and looking at the plan on their recent report it looks like hydro mining will start on the 'first panel', looks to me about 25m wide by 150m long and if they cut it out to 3m high then it would be about 10kt.

Don't know how long it will take, but I wonder if they may line up another 20kt shipment around about AGM time (15 Nov), and another $6m. Or wait for a bit longer to do a 40kt shipment (I think someone said that would be a full ship, rather than half a ship).

If they actually follow their plan then the hydro miner will be right behind the ABM into the 'second panel' for a 50m by 250m chunk. Using 3m height again might translate to about another 30kt mined, due by the end of the qtr.

Another way of putting it is that an ABM can prepare 30kt for hydro mining in a qtr. That's about $9m from past numbers.

Last qtr the cash exp were $26m. I assume that will be approx constant going fwd.

The second ABM in Jan/Feb will also only be able to 'facilitate' another 30kt/$9m per qtr. But don't forget they have to pay $5m for it.

They really need that reconditioned continuous miner repaired and working. By Xmas they say. No idea what it will be capable of, hopefully a lot as they need 100kt/qtr to break even - ish.

So first qtr was 20kt shipped, second qtr might be 50kt shipped/avail. So the second half, to meet their plan would be 250-290kt.

Of course if the height dug out is 4m instead of 3m then the numbers improve by 33%. If the density is +/-20% from 1t/m3 then it makes another big difference etc. etc.

Kiwi on OE. Regarding the tonnage in the panels Multiply your estimate by three.

Monkey Poms.

[Baddarcy]

Another way to calculate it is using the figures that we know.

Total production from the machines is supposed to be 200,000 tonnes per year
They have advised in the July quarterly report that they expected the machines to be doing from 12m-18m per day, the mid point of that is 15m per day once they hit full prduction
At the July point they had the 3 machines

So the calc is... 3 machines * 15m per day = 45m per day

45m per day * 365 days in a year = 16,425m per year

200,000 tonnes of coal / 16,425m = 12.2 Tonnes of coal per meter. So not too far off everyone elses figures.

So that means with the AMB20 making 13 m per day it is cyrning out about (13 * 12.2) 160 tonnes of coal per day, or 1100 tonnes per week.