TAP oil-undervalued

[tricha]

Yes with 2015 outlook 20-25c earning just crazy to buy at 50c ...will reprice north of $1 only a matter of time

Its akin to watching paint dry, JB.
Roll out Manora.

With the plunging OZ dollar, earning will improve. Best of luck Biker, I hold 50 k shares and is my biggest play

[notooshabby]

I got in recently at 50.5, and seeing it at 48 it is very tempting to top up. The hard thing to judge with TAP is when the market will notice it. Feels like dead money while waiting and watching gold juniors rising....

[tricha]

I got in recently at 50.5, and seeing it at 48 it is very tempting to top up. The hard thing to judge with TAP is when the market will notice it. Feels like dead money while waiting and watching gold juniors rising....

Probably August when production should start.

[notooshabby]

Some good buying opportunities today. I added some more at 0.455. Getting to previous support levels now - so will be interesting to see if these hold or not over the next few days.

[gazprom1]

Been a big sell off (in terms of price) this week. Down well over 20%. Any ideas why? My thoughts are that it could be because it was removed from the ASX300 Index a couple of weeks ago or do they have problems with the wells in Thailand?

Gaz

[KiwiGreen]

You can only assume some info must have leaked about something. No word out of TAP in the last 3-4 weeks.

[tricha]

I got in recently at 50.5, and seeing it at 48 it is very tempting to top up. The hard thing to judge with TAP is when the market will notice it. Feels like dead money while waiting and watching gold juniors rising....

I hope you are still holding notooshaby, the re-rating is beginning. Production on track and Troy has bought $77,000 of shares on market.
A huge show of confidence and 50 cents will soon be a distant memory.

[notooshabby]

I hope you are still holding notooshaby, the re-rating is beginning. Production on track and Troy has bought $77,000 of shares on market.
A huge show of confidence and 50 cents will soon be a distant memory.

Hi tricha. Yes I think it could all come together over the coming months. Had actually sold down at my average buy price (47c) at the time of the Thai unrest as I was concerned on issues there - but am more comfortable now on this risk and am rebuilding a position at current SP levels (49 - 50c).

[tricha]

Hi tricha. Yes I think it could all come together over the coming months. Had actually sold down at my average buy price (47c) at the time of the Thai unrest as I was concerned on issues there - but am more comfortable now on this risk and am rebuilding a position at current SP levels (49 - 50c).

Troy the CEO is a smart cookie, he's buying because he knows where they are heading.
Absolutely no value placed on their extensive gas assets.

Once Manora is producing, ( August) and oil is still high, a re-rating.

[gazprom1]

More purchases on market by CEO. Great to see the faith he has in the company. I am nearly back up to break even. It was a long way down to that 33.5 cents. Re-rating underway. Will be interesting to see flow rates at Manora when it is all hooked up and operational.

Good luck to all holders.

Gazprom

[tricha]

More purchases on market by CEO. Great to see the faith he has in the company. I am nearly back up to break even. It was a long way down to that 33.5 cents. Re-rating underway. Will be interesting to see flow rates at Manora when it is all hooked up and operational.

Good luck to all holders.

Gazprom

incredible I have to say, the CEO whacks into another $200,000 worth of onmarket shares.

This is a fantastic show of confidence!

[Corporate]

Definitely goods news. I wobder why now and not previously?

[gazprom1]

Definitely goods news. I wobder why now and not previously?

Yeah, timing is not really clear. Manora has been delayed but he has known this for a long period of time. Has spent over $400k the past couple of weeks. No real deals been announced that would have restricted when he could purchase. Maybe he has sold an asset and is bullish on TAP?

Will be interesting next week to see if he continues buying.

Gaz

[notooshabby]

Well they've announced the topsides of the platform are complete - an excellent milestone which certainly de-risks things somewhat from here.

[tricha]

When the CEO starts buying up large, it's pretty much a no brainer. Tis now on my watchlist.

A lot of good a watch list Moosie.

while u r watching the CEO is buying up big time again.

the CEO has millions of options and from memory, come into play at about $1.50
why would he buy more?

472,000 shares on market more.

TAP is already my biggest holding, maybe I should topup as WELL.

Troy comes with a big reputation, as a can do CEO. Interesting to say the least.

[tricha]

Who says I ain't buying up? ;)

Tap getting ready to fly, the presentation paints a pretty picture.
so much for so little.


http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TAP&E=ASX&N=684327

[JBmurc]

Yes thinking be a great time to get on board ...$1.50+ in time IMHO ....

[notooshabby]

I bought a few more this week at 0.565. I'm overweight on TAP - but think its a pretty exciting opportunity IMHO.

[notooshabby]

Thanks for helping to get past the 60c resistance Moosie. Will have to buy you a beer down in chch in Oct.

[robbo24]

Resistance is at 62/63. Hopefully moosie has some more money.

Although, I think it's a have anyway. Moosie has made clear that he only buys in on companies with revenue and sales. In which case, why would he buy TAP?

HEHEHE see you later guys

[JBmurc]

The Moose fund saw the momentum picking up today and helped break 60, so I'm now in with a grin.

JB, if you're right with the valuation I'm buying you a few rounds! :)

yes sounds good ...you'd have to be confident when you look at the sales numbers in TAP forward plan

[robbo24]

Yup, as mentioned earlier the chart from the presentation was the clincher showing SP vs production. Directors buying up large below 60 was as well.

Robbo, your Tinto entitlemeny has been revoked now!!!

Nooo I mean TAP is such an awesome company, it's a sure thing guys!! ALL ABOARD!! :D

[tricha]

Tap getting ready to fly, the presentation paints a pretty picture.
so much for so little.


http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TAP&E=ASX&N=684327

Hardly any shares for sale, under 70 cents, bodes WELL when the oil flows soon.

Troy knows where the finish line is, his millions of options. There is not many companies around where the CEO takes iniates a big pay cut for shares at a much higher price.

Good on him, I hope he makes millions. A win win for all.

[goldfish]

I bought in early today, looks like some good longer term prospects, just a small amount but am planning on averaging up as we hit 70c 80c 90c etc. Think that could be a good plan for this as it heads towards the 150 mark which is what im looking for.
Wasnt expecting to make 6% on it on the first day though lol lucky timing.

[goldfish]

thanks moosie,hopefully a prosperous investment.

[biker]

I bought in early today, looks like some good longer term prospects, just a small amount but am planning on averaging up as we hit 70c 80c 90c etc. Think that could be a good plan for this as it heads towards the 150 mark which is what im looking for.
Wasnt expecting to make 6% on it on the first day though lol lucky timing.

Bought more yesterday also, adding to my original holding. Picked some up early in the day but had to pay a bit more later on. Now averaging just under 58c and hoping for no more holdups in Manora.

[biker]

I'd be interested in everyones price target here. I'm mostly in for the momentum trade but I can see further derisking as the unit is successfully installed, wells are drilled with no incidents and the first oil announcement is released. If it breaks 70-75 range and then $1 I'm pretty tempted to just hold until something else comes along that's tastier as the buffer on that would be quite large.

Should I dare to dream bigger?

Disc - holding lots and looking for 75 cents near term ;)

Looking for 82c within 6 months

[notooshabby]

Bit of spinning top action on.the charts today. Market appears indecesive, but DMI still strong (and rising), with RSI lying just below overbought and MACD with a short term cross back to bullish over lomger term. Stil outside the upper BB, suggesting further gains possible this week. Lookimg to break 70, hold and take a bit of a breather now. :)


Think that spinning top might have been a little more than a pause before more uptrend today. A bit of selling pressure coming in. I personally think we'll have a bit of a choppy ride up still with TAP as some will have gotten in during the recent trough (33 - 40c) and their target sell might look quite different to ours... Still good reasons to see the SP still move higher towards Sept. However, I guess there is still some risk on the actual production volumes achieved versus forecast, which is important to not forget.

[tricha]

Think that spinning top might have been a little more than a pause before more uptrend today. A bit of selling pressure coming in. I personally think we'll have a bit of a choppy ride up still with TAP as some will have gotten in during the recent trough (33 - 40c) and their target sell might look quite different to ours... Still good reasons to see the SP still move higher towards Sept. However, I guess there is still some risk on the actual production volumes achieved versus forecast, which is important to not forget.

There is also upside potential as WELL, I bet Troy knows this.;)

from the quarterly, Manora forecast production.
the numbers are 4500 barres a day to TAP,
simple maths , 4500 x 365 days x $100

turnover for peak year could be 164 million US.
Tap,s market cap, 150 million oz

11 years production and drilling upside.

And then the rest, huge gas deposits. When the fracking Ponzi scheme unravels, TAPs gas will also be worth a fortune as WELL.

WELL worth holding for a year at least. This could be a multi bragger, happy hunting folks.

[tricha]

Nice fat initial position bought up near noon @ 63 cents by someone with big boots (S3XT condition). The strength the SP is showing in the face of a global equities downturn is inspiring as well. Happy to hold :)

interesting high volume day here, someone still dumping, but he can not beat the buyer, who takes all.

then again, TAP is still very cheap.;)

[notooshabby]

A little more volume on the sell side piling up - but nothing too worrisome. I suspect that we'll be waiting for more news (Sept?) to see any further significant uplift. Would be great to see some news on their progress in disposing of / releasing value from non-core assets, as all eyes are on just the Manora project at present.

[goldfish]

Yes looking good today, I bought some more of these after doing more research into TAP, very confident of a good long term investment. (to me a year is long).

[tricha]

Yes looking good today, I bought some more of these after doing more research into TAP, very confident of a good long term investment. (to me a year is long).

Coud have a long way to run.

this report on hot copper, would base TAP on the the low side in my books. 4500 barrels a day nett to TAP with the potential of 3 years worth.

So the upside is potentially huge. TROY would know, he put hundreds of thousands on it, on market.

http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/tap-research-report.2337478/page-8?post_id=13813059#.U-yH4csayK0

[BlackPeter]

Couldn't help myself, bought mire today. Heavy as a bull moose in my portfolio :p

Hi Moosie, I don't know a lot about this stock, but I had a quick "outsider-look" at company fundamentals and trend. Reuters predicts 1 cents earning per share - i.e. forward P/E is 65. Overall - the SP shows a straight downward trend over the last 5 years (admittedly currently in a nice upwards-spike, similar to the spikes it had in April 2011 and May 2012).

Revenue over the last 5 years steadily dropping and earnings quite patchy (and mainly negative). I suppose they promised the world for the years to come, but as we all know, promises may or may not be kept.

Analyst predictions (Financial Times) are between 65 and 75 cents.

Obviously - this time everything might be different, but not sure,whether I would want to be seriously overweight with this stock. Would only consider for high risk portfolio (and for that the promised return doesn't look good enough). Anyway - enjoy the current bounce, but take care ...

[tricha]

The captain

A


Anyone seen Pluto, multi billion dollar operation near Karatha.

Who better to lead TAP through these exiting times.

Black Peter, why not do some homework. Look into the future here, not the rear view mirror.
Sure there's risk, but the reward with Manora could be huge.


This profile was last updated on 7/10/14 and contains information from public web pages and contributions from the ZoomInfo community.
Is this you? Claim your profile.
Mr. Troy Hayden Wrong Troy Hayden?
MD


Phone: +61 *********
Email: t***@***.au
Local Address: Perth, Western Australia, Australia
Tap Oil Limited
Level 7 107 Pitt St.
Sydney, New South Wales 2232
Australia
Company Description: Tap Oil Limited (Tap) is an Australia-based company. The Company is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production, and gas marketing. The wholly owned... more
Background
Employment History
Managing Director
Tap Oil Limited
Vice President Pluto
Woodside Petroleum Ltd.
Chief Financial Officer, Vice President of the USA Business Unit and Vice President of the Pluto Business Unit
Woodside Petroleum Ltd.
Chief Financial Officer, USA for US Business Unit and Chief Financial Officer
Woodside Petroleum Ltd.
IPO Consultant
QR Limited
Interim Chief Financial Officer
First Quantum Minerals LTD
Interim Chief Financial Officer
First
Board Memberships and Affiliations
Board Member
Tap Oil Limited
Board Member
The Intelligent Investor Publishing Pty Ltd
50 Total References Web References
About Us - TapOil
www.tapoil.com.au, 10 July 2014 [cached]
Troy Hayden
...
Troy Hayden brings significant oil industry experience to Tap from a 12 year career at Woodside Petroleum, where he held a number of key positions, including Acting CFO, Vice President of the USA Business Unit and Vice President of the Pluto Business Unit. Since leaving Woodside in 2008, he has undertaken a number of financial and commercial consulting projects working with First Quantum Minerals and QR National. He has built and maintains a wide range of senior level relationships across the petroleum, resources and financial sectors in Australia and internationally.
Tap-21-8-12 - Company Insight
www.companyinsight.com.au, 21 Aug 2012 [cached]
Aug 21, 2012 - MD & CEO: Troy Hayden
In this Company Insight interview the Tap Oil Managing Director, Troy Hayden, explains Final Investment Decision (FID) is a very important milestone for growth of Tap Oil; explains confidence in being able to recover 2C resource in addition to 2P reserves; capital cost items and expected expenditure; explains reasons why Manora is a low risk development; doing business in Thailand & milestones to first production; funding the project - more than adequate finance available; and Company-wide exploration & 2012 outlook for Tap.
...
Managing Director & CEO, Troy Hayden
Tap's acquisition of its interest in the Gulf of Thailand, including the Manora oil discovery, was made in October 2010 opening up a new core area of focus for Tap.
...
Troy Hayden
...
Troy Hayden
...
Troy Hayden
The total Manora Oil Development capital expenditure is estimated at US$246 million (100% basis).
...
Troy Hayden
...
Troy Hayden
...
Troy Hayden
...
Troy Hayden
Since announcing FID, the PCIC contract has been awarded to a consortium of Clough (Thailand) Co Ltd and TL Offshore Sdn Bhd.
...
Troy Hayden
...
Troy Hayden
...
Troy Hayden
...
Troy Hayden
...
Thank you Troy.
Tap Oil - TAP - Intelligent Investor
www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 14 Sept 2012 [cached]
Troy Hayden
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. - Media Centre - News Releases - News Release Details
www.fqml.com, 16 Mar 2009 [cached]
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. ("First Quantum" or the "Company", TSX Symbol "FM", LSE Symbol "FQM") today announced the appointment of Troy Hayden as Interim Chief Financial Officer of the Company effective immediately. Mr. Hayden assumes the responsibilities of David E. J. Moroney who has resigned the position.
...
Mr. Hayden joins the Company after a 12-year career with Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia's largest public independent oil and gas exploration and production company. During his tenure, Mr. Hayden held positions of increasing responsibility culminating in Vice President, Pluto LNG Business Unit where he oversaw the legal, sustainability, finance, commercial and development activities of the Business Unit. He also served as Chief Financial Officer, USA for Woodside Petroleum's US Business Unit from 2005 to 2007 and Acting Chief Financial Officer, for Woodside Petroleum Ltd. from 2004 - 2005.
Philip Pascall, First Quantum's Chairman and CEO said "On behalf of the Board of Directors, we welcome Troy and look forward to his contribution to the Company.
TapOil Limited
www.tapoil.com.au, 29 Nov 2012 [cached]
Troy Hayden, B.Econ, M.Fin MANAGING DIRECTOR/CEO, MEMBER OF THE NOMINATIONS COMMITTEE
Troy Hayden brings significant oil industry experience to Tap from a 12 year career at Woodside Petroleum, where he held a number of key positions, including Acting CFO, Vice President of the USA Business Unit and Vice President of the Pluto Business Unit. Since leaving Woodside in 2008, he has undertaken a number of financial and commercial consulting projects working with First Quantum Minerals and QR National. He has built and maintains a wide range of senior level relationships across the petroleum, resources and financial sectors in Australia and internationally.

[tricha]

Take 2

just for u Black Peter.

ask yourself a question. Why is the MD buying (buying, not a token gesture from some directors u know)

Tap Oil MD back in the market for shares
Date
July 19, 2014
Read later

Christopher Webb
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Managing director of Tap Oil, Troy Hayden.
Directors' trades remained subdued, with the total for buyers and sellers registering less than $2.8 million, compared with $9 million the previous week.


The scorecard was about $966,000 to $1.8 million in favour of buyers.


Helping the buying tally along were two directors who have been active in recent weeks.


Stephen Copulos once again topped the table: he bought more shares in KFC and Sizzler restaurant operator Collins Foods.


Advertisement
He paid about $2.44 a share compared with his previous buying which was pitched at $2.22.


Weighing in second was Troy Hayden, the managing director of Tap Oil.


The former Woodside Petroleum staffer has spent close to $700,000 on Tap Oil scrip during the past month at prices ranging from 46¢ to buying in recent days around 56¢.


Since the annual meeting in late May - when chairman Douglas Bailey told shareholders that ''production and cash flow'' stood out for 2014 and beyond - the shares have firmed from 46¢ to 59¢.


Elsewhere, Barry Fairley made an appearance when he supported his Acorn Capital Investment Fund Ltd.


When Acorn listed in May he had 250,000 shares and he's topped that up by 75,000 shares bought at 90¢ apiece.


The microcap investment company raised $50 million through an issue of shares at $1 each and a free option.


At June 30, about 53 per cent had been invested in listed and unlisted investments in stocks such as Horizon Oil, Sundance Energy, Papillon Resources, eServGlobal, iCar Asia and Servcorp.


Aristocrat Leisure was again on the buyers' list, with non-executive director Kathleen Conlon opening her account with the purchase of $30,000 of stock.


Three of the seven-member board have bought shares since the company announced it was buying the Tennessee-based Video Gaming Technologies.






Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/tap-oil-md-back-in-the-market-for-shares-20140718-3c6op.html#ixzz3AXgSCAPF

[tricha]

Take 3.

I will repeat it just for u Black Peter.

please read this report and note the key points.

http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/tap-research-report.2337478/page-8?post_id=13813059#.U-8ZAssayK1

[BlackPeter]

Take 3.

I will repeat it just for u Black Peter.

please read this report and note the key points.

http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/tap-research-report.2337478/page-8?post_id=13813059#.U-8ZAssayK1

Hi Tricha,

I feel special ... three posts from you just for me to convince me of the benefits of this stock - LOL.

Look - I have no issues with TAP and wish you and all other investors in this stock well. And yes, I noted that they are just in the process of ramping up production and that they consider this as low risk (which might be true). I was just pointing out to moosie that there are still risks (as with all other stocks) - my personal strategy to cope with these risk is not to go overweight on any stock.

I agree as well that it is normally a good sign when directors put their own money into a stock. It is however just one of many indicators, and - as any other indicator - not a 100% guarantee that things go right (remember e.g. one of the DPC directors during the falling knife episode - he bought basically all the way down)?

Talking about indicators - stocks pushed by hype disseminated by "true believers" come in my view typically with a warning sign. They still may or may not be good companies (like e.g. XRO, DIL, PEB, RAK, GEN - some are good, others not), but the hype is frequently resulting into a bubble which best case just deflates again and worst case might burst.

Just to balance your posts - can you come up with three good reasons not to go overweight in TAP?

All the best & good luck ...

[tricha]

Hi Tricha,

I feel special ... three posts from you just for me to convince me of the benefits of this stock - LOL.

Look - I have no issues with TAP and wish you and all other investors in this stock well. And yes, I noted that they are just in the process of ramping up production and that they consider this as low risk (which might be true). I was just pointing out to moosie that there are still risks (as with all other stocks) - my personal strategy to cope with these risk is not to go overweight on any stock.

I agree as well that it is normally a good sign when directors put their own money into a stock. It is however just one of many indicators, and - as any other indicator - not a 100% guarantee that things go right (remember e.g. one of the DPC directors during the falling knife episode - he bought basically all the way down)?

Talking about indicators - stocks pushed by hype disseminated by "true believers" come in my view typically with a warning sign. They still may or may not be good companies (like e.g. XRO, DIL, PEB, RAK, GEN - some are good, others not), but the hype is frequently resulting into a bubble which best case just deflates again and worst case might burst.

Just to balance your posts - can you come up with three good reasons not to go overweight in TAP?

All the best & good luck ...


Risk no 1. - wells do not deliver proposed output.

countered by exceeding proposed output.


# 2 - sovereign risk.

# 3 - no new finds.

as Moosie states, rewards here over shadow the risks.

I am happy to a accept the risks. I know the captain has the same risk/ reward situation as all of us.
There are too many companies, where the captain wins and the shareholders lose.

Solid Energy would be a classiic case, Disgusting.

P.s there's no sure bet

[notooshabby]

I'd have to say that I'm surprised that we've not had a bumpier ride recently with the higher volumes stacked up on the sell side. Seems to be reasonable support in the low 60's. Agree Moose - an update at this critical time would be good. I still think there are SP risks associated with the frayed nerves of longer term shareholders!

[notooshabby]

Yeah I end up hitting a paywall on RigLogix if I try and get beyond this: http://www.rigzone.com/data/offshore_drilling_rigs/1659/Jackup/Atwood_Oceanics/Atwood_Orca

I don't know if they'd feel compelled to report until first oil flows in September based on announcements?

[notooshabby]

A fair old number of sellers still sitting at 66c. Will be interesting to see where we are this time next week.

6172

[tricha]

Patience needed here chaps.

TAP is going no where, till the oil flows.

[JBmurc]

Patience needed here chaps.

TAP is going no where, till the oil flows.

Can't be that far away ...got a few today @ 65c think we will see the very nice spike after coming out of trading halt on production starting ......>>>>>>>>80c++

[tricha]

$4M writ served. Time to load up more if she falls me thinks. Tis only about 8 days revenue on Manora at full blast! ;)

YOur loading up worked a treat ;)

[JBmurc]

Continue trend higher ..me like long time..........70c to break tomorrow ?

[notooshabby]

Drilling has started it appears... (see TAP announcement today)

[tricha]

Patience needed here chaps.

TAP is going no where, till the oil flows.


nice presentation again today, someone must have liked it.
not many of us Kiwis hold. The oil will flow soon and TAP will be rerated. Target price who knows,
All I know is so much for so little!



http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TAP&E=ASX&N=691008

[JBmurc]

Yes and doesn't look like the 10%+ fall in Oil prices have affected it much either

[JBmurc]

Tap Oil Limited (ASX:TAP) provides the following update on the Manora Oil Development in the Northern Gulf of Thailand (TAP 30% interest). Batch drilling of the first three development wells is progressing ahead of schedule, with MNA-01 and MNA-02 having been drilled to the final target depths and drilling of MNA-03 progressing. MNA-01 and MNA-02 are required ahead of introduction of hydrocarbons to the Manora production facility. The first two development wells MNA-01 and MNA-02, encountered 172 feet and 160 feet of net oil pay respectively in the three 600 series reservoirs of the central fault block. They will be completed as single zone producers in two of the three reservoirs. The well results compare favorably to the Manora-1 discovery well, which found 168 feet net oil pay in the same sequence of reservoirs. Drilling is currently progressing on the MNA-03 well, which is targeted at the third reservoir. Mubadala Petroleum, Operator of the Manora Oil Development joint venture, has advised that production at Manora is now expected to commence in the second half of October, rather than at the end of the third quarter 2014. The short delay is due to a combination of poor weather and delays in commencing the platform commissioning. The commissioning work is well underway and it is anticipated the hook up and commissioning will be completed during this time. The Manora A platform is located within the Gulf of Thailand in 46 metres of water. The development drilling program calls for drilling and completion of 15 wells (10 producers and 5 injectors), with the program expected to take until the end of Q1 2015. Tap has 2P reserves of 6.1 mmbbls (20.2 mmbbls gross) and 2C contingent resources of 3.2 mmbbls (10.9 mmbbls gross) booked for Manora (ASX release 27 October 2011). Tap will review these reserves and contingent resources following development drilling and production performance

[notooshabby]

Still holding JB? I'm thinking I should have taken more notice of the resistance at 69c (and oil prices) - but was waiting hopefully for production to start (as I still am). Still have high hopes for these guys...

[BFG]

Director still buying at 62. Still cheap apparently!

[JBmurc]

Still holding JB? I'm thinking I should have taken more notice of the resistance at 69c (and oil prices) - but was waiting hopefully for production to start (as I still am). Still have high hopes for these guys...

Sold out high to mid 60's ....good buying if your've got a longer term outlook ....will likely buy in again when funds become available

[tricha]

Director still buying at 62. Still cheap apparently!

could be the bargain of the year, upside is huge

[tricha]

Director still buying at 62. Still cheap apparently!

Two weeks to "D" day and a re-rating. Once the Saudi's stop playing political games and oil goes back to $100 a barrel, we should see some fireworks in this stock.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TAP&E=ASX&N=696746

[goldfish]

What a crappy investment this turned into , sold this morning, hit my stoploss, got out just in time by the looks of things.

[BlackPeter]

What a crappy investment this turned into , sold this morning, hit my stoploss, got out just in time by the looks of things.

I guess you can't really blame them for the oil price tanking ... I am sure, the tide will turn again (or did it already?)

Discl: waiting for rock bottom ...

[digger]

What a crappy investment this turned into , sold this morning, hit my stoploss, got out just in time by the looks of things.

This has nothing to do with TAP. The war over oil prices has too many fronts to list here but an international oil price war is going on. Tap is just what Uncle Sam calls colateral damage.

[notooshabby]

It appears that oil is flowing...

[BlackPeter]

It appears that oil is flowing...

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20141112/pdf/42tn8nlfsgt281.pdf


... and the SP is shooting upwards. Why am I not surprised?

Discl: quite happy holder (though on a second thought - should have bought some more during the recent dip ... ;)

[tricha]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20141112/pdf/42tn8nlfsgt281.pdf


... and the SP is shooting upwards. Why am I not surprised?

Discl: quite happy holder (though on a second thought - should have bought some more during the recent dip ... ;)

People are weird, why do they have to know the oil is flowing, when this was basically a done deal, with very, very little risk.

The key to Manora is the upside, patience will be required.

[notooshabby]

I am quite weird yes - but I am also pleased to see no further delays in connecting the top side. I have a longer term view of the Tap opportunity, and my gaze is more captured by reviewing the resource upward in 2015 (hopefully!) and the enticing statement from Troy in today's release hinting at the possibility of dividends. IMHO it may be a turbulent SP over the coming little while as there will be many holders that bought to sell on the back of this announcement...

[BlackPeter]

Director Troy Hayden is adding some more shares (roughly 50k) to his already quite substantial holding:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20141113/pdf/42tpmxh4qwrj0r.pdf

[BFG]

Director Troy Hayden is adding some more shares (roughly 50k) to his already quite substantial holding:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20141113/pdf/42tpmxh4qwrj0r.pdf
Man this guy is confident, and with good reason. Flows look good so far. If those 2Cs are converted into 2Ps then he will be very happy indeed. I'd be chucking my spare change from my paycheque into my company too!

[BlackPeter]

Man this guy is confident, and with good reason. Flows look good so far. If those 2Cs are converted into 2Ps then he will be very happy indeed. I'd be chucking my spare change from my paycheque into my company too!

I guess mid and long term there is only one direction for the price of oil, given how low it is at current. This means as long as he is confident of the company fundamentals and the quality of their operations (which he seems to be), all should be hunky dory.

[tricha]

I guess mid and long term there is only one direction for the price of oil, given how low it is at current. This means as long as he is confident of the company fundamentals and the quality of their operations (which he seems to be), all should be hunky dory.

And then there is the "huge" gas assets with even bigger upside., which are notooshabby,
I topped up today.

if anyone knows, Troy does.

[tricha]

And then there is the "huge" gas assets with even bigger upside., which are notooshabby,
I topped up today.

if anyone knows, Troy does.

Oh, maybe the rest of the board does also.;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TAP&E=ASX&N=699847

[kanaka]

Oh, maybe the rest of the board does also.;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TAP&E=ASX&N=699847

Took a punt & bought 10,000, always a good sign when the Directors are purchasing shares

[tricha]

Took a punt & bought 10,000, always a good sign when the Directors are purchasing shares

all the best Kanaka, it is easy to see why they have been buying.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TAP&E=ASX&N=699930

[tricha]

PAge 13 folks, this is a likely reason Troy and co, are buying. A good chance of making them rich.

Page 13 http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TAP&E=ASX&N=700101

[BFG]

Never thought we'd see 55 again. Troymust see this as mana from heaven!

[BFG]

Yikes!!! Sub 50 up ahead! Shorters mustbe having absolute field day on these stocks! Bargain of the century after oil prices bottom.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0JA0O320141127?irpc=932

[crayfish]

Yikes!!! Sub 50 up ahead! Shorters mustbe having absolute field day on these stocks! Bargain of the century after oil prices bottom.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0JA0O320141127?irpc=932
totally agree but for the arab's to achieve what they want to, closing others supply, it is going to take 6 month or so of low prices........ so no hurry to buy TAP

[BFG]

totally agree but for the arab's to achieve what they want to, closing others supply, it is going to take 6 month or so of low prices........ so no hurry to buy TAP

Troy Hayden will be absolutely ecstatic!

[JBmurc]

Yikes!!! Sub 50 up ahead! Shorters mustbe having absolute field day on these stocks! Bargain of the century after oil prices bottom.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0JA0O320141127?irpc=932


Yes going be a long termers dream ....high 30's would be very nice ....once the higher costs Shale oil/ tar sands have been closed down .....we will see oil prices come back to the LT mean 70-80bbl imho

[BFG]

Yes going be a long termers dream ....high 30's would be very nice ....once the higher costs Shale oil/ tar sands have been closed down .....we will see oil prices come back to the LT mean 70-80bbl imho

Indeed. Converting 2Ps to 2Cs and realisation of gas assets will be a huge boost once oil bottoms and rebounds. Wouldn't mind re buying near half my original price!

[BlackPeter]

Indeed. Converting 2Ps to 2Cs and realisation of gas assets will be a huge boost once oil bottoms and rebounds. Wouldn't mind re buying near half my original price!

Director topping up: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20141210/pdf/42vd5c38g7g5vt.pdf. Not quite sure how low the oil price can go for TAP to survive, but I guess this means, that they still have some headroom.

Just imagine what the SP will do when the oil price trend reverses ...; and I am sure, one day it will :)

[BFG]

$56 per barrel and counting. Looks like the QE premium on commodities has well and truly come off now. Good old commodity super cycles eh?

[skid]

I wouldn't be in such a hurry to buy in to this bargain basement just because it seems cheap compared to before (its a different world atm for oil)--Why not wait for the turnaround --this could go on for sometime--unless of course the ''gamblers nature'' is to strong.
If it keeps falling it will hit Tap in 2 different ways --the obvious fall in the value of oil---and the corresponding fall in the markets in general as a result.-----how would TAP look @20c?

Those who rush in may end up with bloody hands

[BFG]

I ain't rushing into anything! Busy elsewhere with eye on price of oil for recovery. Not expecting anything for another 6-12 months at the earliest so all good!

[NZSilver]

whats TAPs cost of production? are they a low cost producer?

[NZSilver]

the only statement I can find is they required oil to trade between $80-$100 for the year to average $25 a barrel profit......... I take it @ $90 a barrel ave they make $25 a barrel so $65 is cost.

cheers & ouch

It looks like oil will stay low for a while - I think the west really wants to drop a few economic "bombs" on Russia. All the other reasons are a side show, america is sacrificing a few of it shale producers (oil will still be there in the future) and getting is best mates in Saudi to keep things pumping, in the mean time destroying Russia's economy. US benefits from low petrol - basically a "steroid shot" for their economy even if the loose a few O&G jobs

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-15/russia-increases-key-interest-rate-to-17-to-stem-ruble-decline.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/15/russias-economy-is-doomed-its-that-simple/

looks like low cost producers with good balance sheets are key if you decide to enter this industry as there are some powerful forces behind the low price - much more than small produces can control.

[NZSilver]

I think you have summed up the situation very well and don't forget a bit of short term pain for the Saudi's will secure long term benefit for them as they will be able to control their market share far better in the future once some production has come out of the market due to a lowering of the price.
Unfortunately for investor in oil companies this is going to be a protracted price war(6-12 months) as the Saudi's know oil production won't slow until all the cash is spent on companies balance sheets.
I expect oil to go below $50.
I am not invested in oil companies at the moment....... but have cash set aside for when the time is right........ TAP, BHP and BP are of most interest.

good points, yes beach looks good to me with low cost, I think you cant go past WPL. Santos looks ok but high debt and LNG still no up and running - bit more risky. Haven't looked at others. Possibly US produces on NYSE could be good?? exxon? cheveron?

but i agree - early days yet, could be plenty more spilt blood (or oil) on the floor.

interesting link re world producers - amazing how bit saudi/america/russia are - basically 40% of production so saudi and US can really F*#k with people. Especially Russia when its a huge part of their GDP

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production

[skid]

cheers & ouch

It looks like oil will stay low for a while - I think the west really wants to drop a few economic "bombs" on Russia. All the other reasons are a side show, america is sacrificing a few of it shale producers (oil will still be there in the future) and getting is best mates in Saudi to keep things pumping, in the mean time destroying Russia's economy. US benefits from low petrol - basically a "steroid shot" for their economy even if the loose a few O&G jobs

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-15/russia-increases-key-interest-rate-to-17-to-stem-ruble-decline.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/15/russias-economy-is-doomed-its-that-simple/

looks like low cost producers with good balance sheets are key if you decide to enter this industry as there are some powerful forces behind the low price - much more than small produces can control.

From what I have read ,its the Saudis that are calling the shots on this one--they were not happy with Russia's antics with their support for Syria(which is a thorn in the side for the Saudis),and also ISIS which was becoming a worry and depending on selling oil to finance.
They apparently held off till the US had stockpiles of fracking oil to weather the storm better so they did not get to much fallout from the tough kid on the block.
If,however it carries on for a year,it will pretty well stuff the US fracking Ind.

The Saudis have the cheapest oil to produce and a good little nest egg to keep afloat.

bottom line --instability

[BlackPeter]

Northern Gulf petroleum buying in large (another 3.4% - now holding nearly 16% of the shares). http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150128/pdf/42w65z7nvf9zsr.pdf

I thought that's an expression of confidence ... until I found a 2010 article reporting on TAP having bought 75% of Northern Gulf Petroleum:
http://www.scandoil.com/moxie-bm2/news/tap-oil-acquires-75-of-northern-gulf-petroleum.shtml

Just wondering - what's going on here? Is this a concealed share buy back, or what? Where is the money coming from?

[BlackPeter]

MAJOR shareholder Northern Gulf Petroleum wants to scrap the whole board of TAP and has formally called for a special meeting to do so........

Yeah, noticed the announcement today as well. Just wondering whether Chatchai requested a directors seat for his 20% and the the existing board ignored his bidding.

Can't imagine this palace revolution going through, but it obviously will consume company and board resources which could be as well employed in a more useful way.

More concerning than these games is IMHO the info that the contractor "proposed" cost over runs in developing Manhora "for approval". Just wondering whether there is any connection between Chatchai's attack and the overrunning contractor's costs?

[Exodia]

More updates on the notice from Mr. Yenbamroong who intends to appoint new directors:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/struggling-tap-oil-eyes-asset-sale-to-avert-thai-shareholderbacked-board-coup-20150306-13wuf6.html
Looks like Mr. Yenbamroong will endeavor to call a meeting of shareholders himself rather than wait for the 2015 AGM in the ordinary course.

Links to the Letter to Shareholders and Strategic Review can be found in this article: http://www.energy-pedia.com/news/general/new-162785

[Daytr]

I did some brief research on these guys & I thought they had quite low costs? I'm talking operating, not CAPEX.