View Full Version : EUR.USD
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Gimme a chart Bilo, and I give you my opinion.
arco
somedays you get it right and still lose , well obviously you didnt get it perfectly right, but what I mean is that picking direction correctly and making a profit dont always go hand in hand
here I got overall direction wrong but still made 130 pips overnight
Morning Peat
........you managed to ride the 'news' wave.
..........nice one.
2:30am USD High Impact Expected
Building Permits
0.71M 0.77M 0.81M
2:30am USD High Impact Expected
Core CPI m/m
-0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
2:30am USD Medium Impact Expected
CPI m/m
-1.0% -0.8% 0.0%
I know its dangerous to put a bottom on falling knifes, but are we getting set for a EUR/USD bear rally?
1. No new lows, clear support just below at the 1.24 range.
2. Triple bullish divergence on the dailies with a momentum oscillator.
3. Volatility decreasing.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture.php?albumid=5&pictureid=71
I know its dangerous to put a bottom on falling knifes, but are we getting set for a EUR/USD bear rally?
1. No new lows, clear support just below at the 1.24 range.
2. Triple bullish divergence on the dailies with a momentum oscillator.
3. Volatility decreasing.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture.php?albumid=5&pictureid=71
Its a possibility..................
IKH gave a signal on the 4 hour, but still waiting for the daily.
read this AMR
while you dont precisely get told what they think (coz its the free release, and obviously they want you to subscribe) but the numbering does clue you in and the triangle (being corrective) etc....
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2008/11/25/EURUSD-Patience.aspx
...what a breakout! 700 pips in four days!
what do people make of this?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2008/12/16/EURUSD-Forex-Here-Comes-The-Storm.aspx
Evening Peat
Potential Gartley on daily - print currently providing a Shooting Star (this of course still has time to change b4 the candle completes).
I also know the Glen Nealy has advised his clients to close their long positions. So perhaps a possibility of some southern movement.
rgds - arco
Evening Peat
Potential Gartley on daily - print currently providing a Shooting Star (this of course still has time to change b4 the candle completes).
I also know the Glen Nealy has advised his clients to close their long positions. So perhaps a possibility of some southern movement.
rgds - arco
Ok what a crazy few days with massive breakouts up then down. Still have won more than I lost but only just. have being stopped out way too many times even though the origional call was correct. Think I will sit on the sidelines for a while as I am ahead for now.
Still is this just a correction of the US weakness or will the US start to move back towards 1.30? I feel it will head back towards 1.50 but wont be betting on it. Time to watch.
gartley on the 15 min from X at 1.4315 (not the highest high but the first retracement) with D at 1.4218 (the highest red dotted line) has given 158 so far.
this chart is abit crowded sorry... the red fib is the XA , the light blue is the AB (had another sell placed at the 161 ext on that ) and the yellow is the BC extension, which pretty much matched the 78% level of the red
the question is what to do now that the IPO of the gartley has been reached (coz immediatly after posting this it bounced up a lot off that gartley target.
Hi Peat
Perhaps thats a Bear Flag now (broken and tested).
In your chart XA could be an AB, and that would give a CD target of under 1.3800, or from the previous fall starting 18 Dec the target could be slightly lower
Not trading this one myself just at the moment.
well that all worked out well closing both positions with good profit - a good start to 2009
Happy New Year everybody
another bear flag forming now ?
15 min chart showing a definite trendline in the retracement. looking for a break of that.
yup that worked
closed one +100 and one still to run
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You're on a roll Peat.....I still in holiday mode.:D
PA is getting towards my idea in post #762 (1.3800)
Should have taken a position, but not trading until next week
getting sick of gartleys yet ?
look at what Euro$ did last night
Aud/Jpy delivered :)
Just closed the 2nd of my two short Euro$ positions at +488 - its starting to look a bit like one of Miners U's might be forming for a bear rally now.
Gotta thank Max Mckegg for this trade - he's a NZ'er who provides forex subscriptions.
http://www.trl.co.nz/trlfx/pages/trlfx.htm
euro looked like it was forming an ascending triangle during this correction but started to push the lower side of it and kind of did a double top at 1.3085 , so I've taken another short , at 1.3008 original stop was at 131.05 but now brought down to 1.3060. TP 1.2808
headin off to zzzz's now with 52 pips at stake 200 on the make
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closed at break even after offerning up to 100 overnite... but I was asleep and it broken out on the up of another little triangle just now 8:55 am so yeh out for zilch
Long time since we've had a potential Bat in the wings.
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also a gartley tho, with X on Oct 27th and B on Jan 5th.
I tried a long from just above 1.28 but again (like GBP/CHF) I was too soon and a bit weak, couldnt hack the lows that came..
Problem with trading this on the daily would be D = 1.2891 and stop would have to be below 1.2330 - over 500 pips.
even trading the bat one would have to allow 250 pip stop.
does look like its time for a rally tho....
does look like its time for a rally tho....
got a hundred this time.... but there was a lot more on offer...
its good that Eur rallies because we need it to go up before we can sell it again.:cool:
Yes a flying start for the Bat - around 300 pips move north. :)
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I still think its better to (overall) be playing the short side tho...
here another 100 overnite.
Hi Peat
Yes looks like there may be some further movement
on the down side to the early 3000's. Who knows,
we might even get another leg up after that.
Long term trend is getting harder and harder to spot. I still believe we are in a downtrend so a triple screen entry short will be on the cards soon for me. There are easier things to trade however.
Entered short at 3233
TP hit overnight +250
Potential Gartley zone
clinical Arco
Using your tactics Peat - off to bed with the SL at entry +20, and
a tongue in cheek TP at +250. Didnt expect to find it taken - should
have left it open - but you know what happens when you do that. :)
well done
I screwed up the last couple of days trading with spikes taking me out too often. always seems to happen on the bigger trades too :mad:
Butterfly hunters!
Is this a giant butterfly forming on the July 08 - October 09 EUR/USD daily?
Butterfly hunters!
Is this a giant butterfly forming on the July 08 - October 09 EUR/USD daily?
Hi Bilo
Presume you mean that is legs is X-A-B ?
Maybe also look a bit nearer and there could be a BAT or BF if it extends.
Oct(Nov)-Dec-Jan-Feb = XABCD
If we take this view of a bullish butterfly shown in the chart of Novellus below then (at the moment) we are missing b-c and going straight from C-D but so far it is has met the fibs of a 61.8% retracement of the leg from mid July 1.61 ish down to 1.23 and has also done a 78% retracement of the leg from 1.23 - 1.48 and hence so far is in line perfectly with only the last week not exactly playing the tune to the textbook.
in my chart I've drawn in dotted orange how the butterfly might look. ab projects 1.618% at 1.16 and BC projects 1.27% at 1.17 so around there would be the PTZ and the buy zone I suppose. Someone check my maths.
Also note ananda77 that technically speaking the theory only suggests the final point D as a valid buy signal and until then the pattern hasnt played out although other patterns have eg arco's bat. I'm not sure if a butterfly can survive the onslaught of a bat
ananda77
19-02-2009, 08:37 PM
If we take this view of a bullish butterfly shown in the chart of Novellus below then (at the moment) we are missing b-c and going straight from C-D but so far it is has met the fibs of a 61.8% retracement of the leg from mid July 1.61 ish down to 1.23 and has also done a 78% retracement of the leg from 1.23 - 1.48 and hence so far is in line perfectly with only the last week not exactly playing the tune to the textbook.
in my chart I've drawn in dotted orange how the butterfly might look. needs to go to 1.43 and then 1.2
...looks like a good opportunity to go EURO long with a close above ~127 (+); target ~147
Kind Regards
Hi Peat
If we get a turn now, the BAT is still a possibility
when the X is taken from the lower point circa 28/10.
(Here's the old chart, and if we take the lower point the
886 is still pretty close to the current price)
rgds - arco
I've updated my original post with different projections and comments on posts that came afterwards.
But no I do not have prescience :cool:
Hi Bilo
Presume you mean that is legs is X-A-B ?
Aye
I meant X-A-B but I notice that USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are similar.
For Peat in my minds eye I expected to extend the D leg down to ~1.25 EUR/USD.
The most dramatic therefore is EUR/JPY....with up to 50% potential retracement?
noticed a three drives pattern down since 21:00 NZT last night and then a bullish gartley so laid into it with a very large trade for me (and a smaller one for the bigger pattern) and it came through pretty quick.
the most certain part of the gartley is the bit from 78% retracment back to the 38%
noticed a three drives pattern down since 21:00 NZT last night and then a bullish gartley so laid into it with a very large trade for me (and a smaller one for the bigger pattern) and it came through pretty quick.
the most certain part of the gartley is the bit from 78% retracment back to the 38%
I got the Euro in the opposite direction - it triggered overnight and hit my TP +60 sometime as I dozed completely unaware.
dumbass
21-03-2009, 09:15 AM
i reckon there is some serious overhead resisitance on euro at 1.39
? shaping upfor a short
russki
21-03-2009, 05:04 PM
Yep, I reckon every man and his dog is gonna be trading that reistance level, if it breaks, we'll be seeing 1.45 in no time. Gentlemen, place your stops :)
ananda77
21-03-2009, 05:37 PM
Yep, I reckon every man and his dog is gonna be trading that reistance level, if it breaks, we'll be seeing 1.45 in no time. Gentlemen, place your stops :)
...looks like it is 'onward and upward' for the USD after a sharpest drop into the equinox; however, a close below 82.63 would confirm more USD downward pressure;
Kind Regards
roddy
22-03-2009, 02:56 PM
Hi DB,
I was long Euro from lower levels but i got shaken out at 1.3575.i am dubious as to just how high the Euro will go,all the data out of there is dismay as was the news Friday nite,having said that there is no meaningful reversal yet and price is always king
ananda77
22-03-2009, 08:28 PM
...looks like it is 'onward and upward' for the USD after a sharpest drop into the equinox; however, a close below 82.63 would confirm more USD downward pressure;
Kind Regards
...there are possibly only two ways how to finance the US deficit:
1- The federal deficits could be financed by further flight from equities and other investments. The next financial shock could arise from commercial real estate. Stores are closing in shopping centers, and vacancies are rising in office buildings. Without rents, the mortgages can’t be paid.
Another scare and another big drop in the stock market will set off a second "FLIGHT TO QUALITY" and finance the budget deficits (buying up treasuries >to be on the safe side, the safest way would be to buy the shortest term treasuries)
2- The Federal Reserve will buy most of the new bonds and create demand deposits for the Treasury. In effect, the money supply will grow by the amount of Fed purchases of new Treasury debt. Printing money to finance the government’s budget normally leads to high inflation and high interest rates.
The initial impact of the announcement of the Fed’s plan to purchase existing debt was to drive up the bond prices. However, if the reserves poured into the banking system by the bond purchases result in new money growth, and if the Fed purchases the new debt issues to finance the governments’ budget deficits, the outlook for bond prices and the dollar becomes poor.
source: http://vdare.com/roberts/090319_bailout.htm
...looking at the long term trajectory of equity markets as well as the fact that the Fed's intention remains to keep interest rates at their lowest possible level for a prolonged period of time, it looks most likely that 1- should be the preferred strategy to tackle the deficit problem...
Kind Regards
ananda77
28-03-2009, 04:29 PM
...after 3 cent surge, USD looks like on its way to challenge 92.63 level...
...sweet, as long as key level remains *83.7 on downside
-demand for USD remains high globally as a safe haven bet as well as being the denominated currency of global issued debt
-NO INFLATIONARY PRESSURES due to huge gap in global economic output (DEFLATION)
-due to global QE to close global output gap, erecting protective tariff barriers, as well as competitive currency devaluations avoided
-expect NZD to depreciate (more rate cuts as well as QE) as further appreciation of exchange rate would be deflationary to the struggling NZ economy
Trading Strategy: long USD/NZD
Kind Regards
perfect H+Sh on the hourly
miner
10-04-2009, 02:34 PM
And it's opp mate usd/chf doing the same.
Cheers
Miner
no joy in that H+S for me tho, now above the shoulder so I guess thats a fail.
ananda77
18-04-2009, 04:18 PM
...most likely, next bullish move for USD to 92 index-level, likely coinciding with bearish correction tendencies in the US Blue Chips...
Kind Regards
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Into cloud resistance on 1h and 4h it looks like the grey box could be the maximum test area of the thick Kumo which has turned bearish going forward. If we see a turnaround at this point it could be followed by a circa 300 pip fall onto supportive Kumo on daily TF. However, if the action penetrates the Kumo, it could be a different story
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http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/30ad015127.gif (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)
For Peat
http://www.tradersedgeindia.com/images/ew18.gif
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DB can probably confirm if the EW count looks complete. (5 of 5)
It certainly looks like the Ending Diagonal could be on its last legs.
arco
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/ec90b137de.gif (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)
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technically C should go higher than A of course, and its several hundred pips short of that , but EWI seem to be comfortable with it being only 9 pips short on a daily close basis. 1.4450 is the break point and 1.4050 is the confirmation point.
technically C should go higher than A of course, and its several hundred pips short of that , but EWI seem to be comfortable with it being only 9 pips short on a daily close basis. 1.4450 is the break point and 1.4050 is the confirmation point.
Hi Peat.
There is what Prechter calls a truncated 'C' wave which does not reach as far as 'A' This will be in 5 waves and 'akin to the truncation of an impulse".
Ref. Elliott Wave Principle Chapter 1 Fig 1-39 P48
apparently someone sold 260mil at 1.4320
seems to have done the trick...
dumbass
16-08-2009, 11:45 AM
possibly another ending diagonal pattern , very similar to your count arco .
http://iforce.co.nz/i/fq33u0xe.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=fq33u0xe.jpg)
DB - Do you think this EW count is feasible?
A breaks of the light blue line (H&S?) may yield results
http://i25.tinypic.com/rcojt4.gif
dumbass
05-09-2009, 08:05 AM
DB - Do you think this EW count is feasible?
A breaks of the light blue line (H&S?) may yield results
hi arco , its the same count in the chart posted before yours, very much a possibility but no signs yet of a usd rally.
if the ending diagonal has completed there should be an impulsive wave down , but the action after 144 looks still corrective.
no luck on kiwi , stopped out .
see you next week
Ichi Euro chart
Weekly plot has broken thru Kumo on second attempt. TS (red) is still supportive. KS (blue) is lagging and tries to attract PA
http://i31.tinypic.com/117bjnn.gif
Weekly chart update -
http://i29.tinypic.com/206k2s4.gif
Preparing for a Breakup in the European Monetary Union
A look at the rising risk of a Euro implosion
http://www.blackswantrading.com/files/EuroReport.pdf
Nice bounce off the Kumo, (pivot break entry) - didn't realise it would become a rocket ship. Taken +52
http://i33.tinypic.com/15ffw1x.gif
From GBP/JPY thread
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closed for +95.
Not a bad start to the week
excellent
I had been drawing several butterflies on the hourly for the Eur/USD and the first two had activated. Having closed the GBP long I thought I should keep something going in the same direction so I opend one at 1.4600 - and suddenly it was +30 so i set a stop to B/E and came back to work.
closed half at +40 and the other at +20....prefer the other direction.
I'm posting the picture here now to support my previous post regarding some bullish patterns - you can see several of them and they seem to be progressively triggering as they push through the B point of the various butterflies.
What I am finding interesting is that EWI are commenting on those same levels in their analysis today
"Prices are at initial resistance at 1.4662-1.4670"
That is where the middle of the three butterflies in my picture completes after having activated at 1.4582.
They then say that next resistance is at 1.4720 ish which is the C point of the largest butterfly in the pic, not quite where I would put resistance though obviously theres some history at that level.
And of course they say 1.4850 is the break point for any bearish case. According to the butterfly theory I;m working with a clean break of where we are now - 1.4670 - means that the large butterfly has activated and it should go to 1.4850.
No position at the moment just watching - seeing what plays out but theoretically if it breaks higher I should go long... not saying I will tho
Peat I jumped on expecting the big butterfly to execute at ~1.550 it hasn't been a rough ride.:)
awesome
do you mean 1.4550?
I took this snag last night, but the PA is still in the grey zone
Ichi gave good H1/H4 signals earlier for a max of around 100 and 50 pips respectively, although I didnt take the trade it was definitely a missed opportunity :(.
http://i38.tinypic.com/whoeo7.gif
awesome
do you mean 1.4550?
yes peat a nice aussie red fudging the fingers..and the brain the Non Farm Payrolls being the entry point
pips for breakfast off this micro butterfly on the 1 min - not drawn in.
clearly I should have stayed for lunch and dinner. :(
I took this snag last night, but the PA is still in the grey zone
Ichi gave good H1/H4 signals earlier for a max of around 100 and 50 pips respectively.........
Great reversal/continuation off the Kumo
http://i36.tinypic.com/259vktc.gif
Out at 1.4860. I don't think it will go down just yet tho.:)
I wonder if we have bounced off 1.4980 now ad heading for 1.5500...
back in long on friday anyway
I wonder if we have bounced off 1.4980 now ad heading for 1.5500...
back in long on friday anyway
A correction I guess overdue and some of you guys picked it. Ouch!
Short time frame slightly wonky H+Sh.
slightly longer time frame - bearish butterfly
adding the pics to show what I meant by my previous post
Short time frame slightly wonky H+Sh.
slightly longer time frame - bearish butterfly
moving into strongly positive territory.
taken 10% of the trade off at +70
(the next day)
taking 20% off at +130
(six hours later again)
first preset target was hit - love those Oanda green dots ! so thats another 20% taken off at +180. half the trade still rolling. big targets for the remainder so it is not unexpected that a fair amount will be retraced before further gains - I may well replace some of the closed trades if it goes up enough i,e re add shorts.
Nice one Peat.
I've been scalping some long on the retrace and peeling a few off as I go along.
whereas I've been scalping it short.
3 trades adding 90 pips to the banked profits, tho of course the larger short position has suffered. this as I said was to be expected..
the rise this morning hit my trailing stop on the remaining half of the trade at +44 - wasnt expecting such a resurgence so certainly not going to let it all go bad
dumbass
11-12-2009, 08:53 PM
may be close to triangle completing and bearish elliot count may take prices lower.
http://iforce.co.nz/i/txzpgs1r.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=txzpgs1r.jpg)
dumbass
12-12-2009, 10:44 AM
closed this morning 140+ , that could be 5 waves down and now should retrace for another short entry.
dumbass
07-01-2010, 10:12 AM
There may be a low risk short entry here.
5 waves down from 14483 which will set risk limit , when ascending wedge breaks could be good for a couple of hundred.
would be great if ran up to 78.6 around 14440
http://iforce.co.nz/i/keznzt2r.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=keznzt2r.jpg)
Hi DB
I also like this for a possible short.
Looks like a bear flag,but all the signals have not stacked up yet.
Hugh fall of 900 pips and only a 23.6 retrace.......bit peculiar
here's the weekly
http://i50.tinypic.com/33mc2dh.gif
dumbass
07-01-2010, 04:44 PM
hi arco, i get where your coming from, but i suppose when a move gets going the big retraces just never come.
i suppose its only fair watching everything else climb vertically against the usd it may have a TEMPORARY day in the sun.
to me this was a great low risk trade in at 14440 with a risk of 50 pips.
Just printed a evening star on h1 but i suspect it will be a slow grind untill NFPs out the way.
LOVING the site keep up the great work.
paul
dumbass
11-01-2010, 09:21 PM
There may be a low risk short entry here.
5 waves down from 14483 which will set risk limit , when ascending wedge breaks could be good for a couple of hundred.
would be great if ran up to 78.6 around 14440
http://iforce.co.nz/i/keznzt2r.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=keznzt2r.jpg)
good pips on this trade nearly 200 up for grabs but got a safe 140+
piptrader09
12-01-2010, 04:01 PM
NZ Brokers?
Hi does anyone know of reliable kiwi brokers ? I have been with WSD Global markets based in Auckland , and NZX regulated . They offer some of the best spreads in the market w/ 0.5 Pip spread on EURUSD..
Anyone fancy some crackling?
The mess the pigs are in will affect the world
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10624864&pnum=2
Stratfor analyse the options facing Germany (http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100208_germanys_choice?utm_source=GWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=100208&utm_content=readmore&elq=8416ffd0558644818dc69df077408b5e)
another free stratfor article on Germany with lots of comments on the Euro....
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100315_germany_mitteleuropa_redux?utm_source=GWe ekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=100316&utm_content=readmore&elq=f8b58d9352514bfdbe1d1f11e6a1986a
"There's always more than one cockroach" Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT (referring to Portugal)
Deputy Governor of the Peoples' Bank of China Zhu Min only made matters worse by warning that Greece is merely the "tip of the iceberg" and is just the start of a much bigger sovereign debt crisis
wow thats awesome... its like saying "Hey you guys hope you can pay your bills , we know we can"
which country(s) do you think he is specifically referring to?
this morning I want to comment on the Euro and what I'm seeing as diagonal triangles. to save me typing it out I've attached one pic of how Jeffrey Kennedy from Elliot Wave describes them
and in the second pic is what I see as two diagonal triangles in different directions... the downward sloping one is potentially the end of this large downward movement from which I had a couple of +300 or more trades. I had already closed my shorts but this was the sign to me that if I hadnt of I should be by now.
And then to my surprise I saw another one occurring last night on a much smaller time frame which I played for a small number of pips. Note than in each case there was a blowoff after the triangle had completed, I'm pretty sure this should be expected , and is perhaps a good opportunity to get your position in, although if you read the tutorial one really should wait for confirmation the move is beginning.
you can read the Elliot wave tutorial on Diagonal triangles here (or of course from their website)
http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~peat/images/DiagonalTrianglesClubReport.pdf
so a bit surprising to identify these patterns so close together but the down one was at the end of a wave 5 (not really confirmed yet but we shall see) and the upward one presenting itself as part of an a-b-c so from what I understand there is no contradiction in this.
anyway , just thought I would share this morning.
good trading all.
Silverlight
03-04-2010, 02:27 AM
Hi peat, thanks for this info, I downloaded it when you posted it and have been following it a bit.
I noticed a good examples from last week on the 1H chart, in AUDUSD.
But looking at the current EURUSD i see one potentially breaking out.
Silverlight
07-04-2010, 06:33 PM
130 pips+ after the break of the diagonal triangle, and has retraced past the number 2 point as specificed in peat's document.
see attached
thats awesome silverlight. glad you're making use of the info.
Potentially a diag tri showing on the NASDAQ ...
looks like a short term bear flag diag triangle on the Euro broke about 7 am this morning as well
a deal has been done....
euro higher?
I always wonder in times like this where Oanda offers after hours trading if I shouldnt hit it hard even with an increased out of hours spread.
price moved up as trading commenced - tho the spread doubled from 10 to 20
weekend position now up 30 pips and that includes the spread so yes I should have hit it harder - oh well any money for jam is good.
Hi Peat
We had a good run on the blog last week on a couple of trades with Euro
http://i44.tinypic.com/zwz334.gif
big night ! markets routed.
I wasnt short but wasnt long either , certainly a night to have had stops in place.
interesting piece on financial crises out from stratfor last night
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100503_global_crisis_legitimacy?utm_source=GWeek ly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=100504&utm_content=readmore&elq=1c43a1e707554c81a66321fbed31d503
quite philosophical in nature , but I enjoy this kind of stuff
I've actually recently bought a book by George Friedman (dude who runs Stratfor) called "The NExt 100 Years" where he puts it all on the line with longterm forecasts re geopolitics... I'm just a few chapters in but its pretty clear he doesnt buy the standard popular China becoming dominant theory , in fact he's saying the 21st century is going to be when America comes of age, describing it as a pimply adolescent right now.
Not something to trade on obviously but I believe the guy needs to be given some credence.
Sounds interesting Peat.
I did warn on the blog yesterday about Euro bearish potential
Eur.Usd #41 – Consolidating. Bearish continuation still looks feasible in the medium/longer term ........... Chikou resistance @ 3218 and Kijun at 3227 are holding up north bound progress.
Also gave Aussie and Kiwi as shorts.
Aud.Usd #42 - Continuation south cautiously feasible in the short term as the action struggles against the daily charts broken minor up-trend line with potential to form a mini 123 on the 4 hour. Chikou below as possible support zone area 9198-9166.
Nzd.Usd #47 – Short term looks slightly bearish on break of Bear Flag (1H chart) with potential for test of Chikou 7241
looking back its all so apparent huh. A totally perfect gartley on the Euro Weekly chart here.
And Phaedrus says Fibonacci levels have no value pffft.
I apologise for only doing this in hindsight - one day I'll get it right for the future
I will say that looks like a hammer on this very last candle.
Phaedrus
09-05-2010, 10:57 PM
Peat, my Dow thread comments on Fibonacci retracements referred specifically to their application to Indices, in this instance, the Dow. As support for my opinion, I cited the following :- "A recent study by Professor Roy Batchelor and Richard Ramyar found no evidence that Fibonacci numbers work in American stockmarkets. They tested nearly 90 years of history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1914-2002) and found no indication that trends tend to reverse at the 61.8% level - or at any other Fibonacci level." http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/media/sto...004_65846.html
It is unfair of you to take my comments totally out of context and then apply them to Forex trading - a completely separate topic and one that I did not so much as mention.
I appreciate that many Forex traders utilise Fibonacci levels but this has nothing to do with the Dow, my opinion as stated, or the findings of the Batchelor/Ramyar paper referred to above. You might like to read this article :- http://www.proshareng.com/articles/singleNews.php?id=1121 The author has no difficulty whatsoever reconciling these two separate viewpoints.
I say that Fibonacci levels don't work with the Dow.
You say that they do work with Forex.......
Where is the argument?
ok
I never appreciated that distinction.....I'll follow up in another thread (this one is for Eur$$$ )
Trader
22-05-2010, 10:26 AM
Does anyone use Heiken Ashi indicator? If yes, what other indicators could be useful with Heinken Ashi?
yes I quite often flick to Heiken Ashi simply to smooth out noise on a chart - it seems to make trends more obvious and can make it a lot more apparent how to count waves.
Trader
22-05-2010, 01:54 PM
Thanks Peat. "Count wave" meaning Elliot wave? or 5-3.. How do you time your entry and place your stop loss? Do you look at other indicator to time your entry?
yes I count in EW.
entry? ....different ways... a butterfly trigger is something I'm always looking out for. RSI crossovers... candles such as harami/engulfing patterns ... with Heikin Ashi you could just be green sell red at different time frames.
stops go on the other side of historical support/resistance or swing high's/lows
not looking good for the Euro but its well oversold and in fact showing divergence on the daily
I'm gonna try a small cheeky long at 1.22 18 pip stop. -12 already :(
(later) +30 putting on a 40 pip trailing stop and of to zzz. dont really trust it. not much at risk now.
I'm gonna try a small cheeky long at 1.22 18 pip stop. -12 already :(
(later) +30 putting on a 40 pip trailing stop and of to zzz. dont really trust it. not much at risk now.
Ha! just stopped out in the early phase.... forex can be a bit of bastard sometime (now 1.2344)
still - no loss suffered.
Trader
27-05-2010, 09:45 AM
Thanks Pete. Looks like it has touched 50% fib level on monthly chart (1/11/2000 to 01/07/2008). Still looking for a long position :)
Still looking for a long position :)
hope you did more than look
I've got 80 pips today.
Trader
27-05-2010, 07:02 PM
105 PIPS...I should have stayed in. Waiting for a retracement.
Trader
27-05-2010, 08:16 PM
I got out at the right time :)
Maybe go long again around 1.2246 if it reaches before bedtime and indicators permitting.
Trader
28-05-2010, 08:50 AM
Looking for a retracement to 1.2296 or preferably around 1.2272 to go Long. These appear to be fib confluence zones on 1 hr chart. Off course it depends on my other indicators. Any recommendation?
must be about time to buy the euro again
Newsweeks cover attached
long Euro from my last post could have provided good returns
time to go hard longing again for the C wave. 1.25 minimum target??
currently +70
going pretty well
nearly up 200 already!
hope some of you are rockin this with me
Dr_Who
02-07-2010, 03:54 PM
Good call PEat. If only I had seen your post earlier I would have joined you on a position.
roddy
02-07-2010, 06:23 PM
nice trade there Peat
Euro was a good mover and one I put on the blog - max so far was just over 500 pips
Dr_Who
12-07-2010, 05:33 PM
Is it time to short EUD/USD?
My chart tells me to go short. Any ideas?
yes I was just about to post that the impulse is looking south now... I started shorting on Friday initially on short term time frames but as there is no real indication to the contrary may as well hold and enjoy. .
general consensus seems to be :
If the stress tests are seen as weak then they would lose their credibility, and if they are too harsh then the currency markets could be spooked, making a fragile situation even worse.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10661179
'This is not reassuring at all," said Komal Sri-Kumar, who helps manage US$118 billion as chief global strategist at TCW Group in Los Angeles.
"I don't think the market is so stupid as to think that they were so wrong,"said Jason Brady, a managing director at Thornburg Investment Management in New Mexico, which oversees about US$57 billion. "The right explanation here is that the testing was not very rigorous."
Analysts and investors said the European tests might not have been strict enough because they ignored the majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. The evaluations took into account potential losses only on government bonds the banks trade, rather than those they are holding until maturity, CEBS said.
Lenders hold about 90 per cent of their Greek government bonds in their banking book and 10 per cent in their trading book, a survey by Morgan Stanley analysts showed.
They have to write down the value of bonds in their banking book only if there is serious doubt about a state's ability to repay in full or make interest payments.
Went all in on Fri night selling into the rally. Was a bit scary as it kept going up but was vindicated last night and took some profits to ensure I didnt blow out if I'm wrong
EWI say 'Friday's advance in the [Euro] also counts as a post-triangle thrust, so with Monday's decline the odds are increasing that the expected top has formed"
several hundred pips since I made that post
five hundred since Fri night.
i just keep selling the Euro at the moment with no stops
a few days ago I had -200 pips on a few trades
but all came right pretty quickly
tonight I will start doing this again
check out this speech / tirade on the EU state from Nigel Farage (no I hadnt heard of him either)
but he nails all the things wrong and really twists the kniife. a barage from Farage.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HB_L1cnCqs
from interest.co
Pumice
13-09-2010, 06:54 PM
i just keep selling the Euro at the moment with no stops
a few days ago I had -200 pips on a few trades
but all came right pretty quickly
tonight I will start doing this again
check out this speech / tirade on the EU state from Nigel Farage (no I hadnt heard of him either)
but he nails all the things wrong and really twists the kniife. a barage from Farage.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HB_L1cnCqs
from interest.co
You went short? looks to just keeping going up and up.
I did , but wisely took a lot off at 1.2650
starting to slowly build up shorts again now , I may experience pain for a while but am reasonably confident it will fall hard when it does if I look at the daily chart I see a downtrend
but hey I could be wrong and I will reduce over 1.29
Pumice
13-09-2010, 09:28 PM
I did , but wisely took a lot off at 1.2650
starting to slowly build up shorts again now , I may experience pain for a while but am reasonably confident it will fall hard when it does if I look at the daily chart I see a downtrend
but hey I could be wrong and I will reduce over 1.29
Braver than I am, I want to go short, but I think I will sit on the sidelines and wait for a better signal.
Good luck!
dragonz
15-09-2010, 04:28 PM
I've just gone short GBP.USD . Will wait on signals to do the same with EUR/USD, or use as a hedge if the trade should go against me.
Zorrro
18-05-2011, 07:00 AM
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Pumice
08-07-2011, 12:33 AM
damn, the markets are ultra volatile tonight!!
SPIEGEL: As an investor, would you still bet on the euro?
Soros: I certainly would not short the euro because China has an interest in having an alternative to the dollar. You can count on China to back the efforts of the European authorities to maintain the euro.
SPIEGEL: Is that the reason why the euro is still so strong compared to the dollar?
Soros: Yes. There is a mysterious buyer that keeps propping up the euro.
SPIEGEL: And it is not you.
Soros: It is not me (laughs).
dragonz
05-09-2011, 07:11 PM
Am short Eur @ 1.4120. Looking at 1.4000
dragonz
06-09-2011, 11:32 AM
Am short Eur @ 1.4120. Looking at 1.4000
closed position for a + 49pips. Will reenter a short should this fall below 1.4036 thus confirming its downtrend direction.:)
dragonz
07-09-2011, 12:16 PM
closed position for a + 49pips. Will reenter a short should this fall below 1.4036 thus confirming its downtrend direction.:)
closed position for a + 24pips. Will reenter a short should this fall below 1.3924 thus re-confirming its downtrend direction
Not too often one hops a 250 pip ride moments before the bus takes off.
4636
The situation did become very oversold though, which accounts for such a snap back.
Valuegrowth
17-08-2013, 11:28 PM
After USD I believe EURO will have their day in the long run.
I am bullish on EURO in the long run and it will shine like AUD and NZD. Next 18 months is very crucial for EURO, AUD, NZD and emerging market currencies.
EURO and emerging market currencies will appreciate against NZD, AUD in the medium run.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
Valuegrowth
04-07-2014, 07:28 AM
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/euro-slips-after-ecb-leaves-rates-unchanged-2014-07-03
U.S. dollar hits three-week high versus yen on jobsEuro drops as ECB holds rates unchanged; Central banker talks down Aussie
Nice day trade even if I did have to wake up pretty early. I sure got that worm
9412
I am trading in the EuroUSD again this time in the opposite direction - so I am short from Friday after a bearish gartley presented itself - which is not shown exactly but those familiar will recognise the fib levels which are shown.
The USD govt closing down raised my anxiety a little during the weekend and indeed the price gapped up half a cent but I have held the position which would appear to be coming back to Fri close pretty quickly . These closures seem to be a bit spurious in the past ...
9432
wizAlvin
14-06-2021, 11:48 AM
my weekend thoughts
EURUSD
Monthly :
Price has moved upward from the trendline top of a down channel which rejected down from the 200ema ( the down channel ) . Price continues moving down from the 200ema
Weekly :
Price has moved downward in a possible down channel from the down channel rejection double top above the significant level at 1.218. Possibly in a 'V' reversal pattern. Price has moved down below the strong level 1.218
Daily :
BIG RED DOUBLE WICKED CANDLE – PRICE MOVED DOWN REJECTING THE STRONG LEVEL 1.218 – MOVING TO THE SIGNIFICANT DAILY, WEEKLY, MONTHLY LEVEL 1.210 AND JUST BELOW THE 50EMA AND THE BASE OF THE DOWN DEFINED DOWN CHANNEL – PRICE IS AT A STRONG LEVEL AND INSIDE THE EMA'S
THE SIGNIFICANT LEVEL IS NOW A BARRIER TO ANY MOVE DOWN AND THE 50EMA A BARRIER TO A MOVE UP – CONVERGENT MACD
So now ASK : is the price likely to go up or go down OR MOVE WITHIN THE CHANNEL?
wizAlvin
18-06-2021, 11:24 AM
18th june 2021 thoughts for what they are worth
EURUSD
Monthly :
Price has moved upward from the trendline top of a down channel then rejected down from the 200ema toward the down channel. Price rose but failed to stay above above a significant level 1.218. Price continues moving down from the level and is very close to a red outside candle.
Weekly :
Price has moved downward breaking below the base of the possible down channel to a strong SIGNIFICANT level and zone at 1.1900. 'V' reversal pattern failed.
Daily :
SECOND BIG RED (THIS TIME DOUBLE) WICKED CANDLE – PRICE FELL MOVING STRONGLY DOWN THROUGH THE 200EMA TO A STRONG DAILY, WEEKLY AND A SIGNIFICANT MONTHLY LEVEL 1.1900 – PRICE IS BELOW THE EMA'S – THE 10EMA HAS CROSSED DOWN BELOW THE 20EMA AND THE 50EMA ALL DESCENDING, ALL ABOVE PRICE – THE 200EMA ASCENDING ABOVE PRICE
THE STRONG SIGNIFICANT ZONE OF 1.1900 TO 1.2000, AND THE 200EMA ARE NOW BARRIERS TO ANY MOVE UP AS ARE THE COMBINED 10EMA AND 50EMA AND THE 20EMA FURTHER ABOVE – CONVERGENT MACD DOWN -
I
So now ASK : is the price likely to go up or go down OR STALL ? WHERE IS THE NEAREST BARRIER, UP OR DOWN ?
wizAlvin
19-06-2021, 08:57 PM
19th thoughts
EURUSD
Monthly :
Price has moved upward from the trendline top of a down channel and rejected down from the 200ema ( the down channel ) from which price failed to move up returning inside the 10ema again – indicating possible fail to move up or stalling on the monthly time frame
Weekly :
Price has previously moved upward in an up channel from the long term down channel then twice rejected the significant level at 1.218 shown in blue. Possible trend reversal in progress to be conformed with a lower low. Refer Marks education.
Daily :
third BIG RED DOUBLE WICKED CANDLE – PRICE AGAIN MOVED DOWN CONTINUING DOWN BELOW THE 200EMA – MOVING TO A VERY STRONG DAILY, WEEKLY, MONTHLY LEVEL ABOUT 1.185 – THE 10EMA HAS MOVED DOWN BELOW THE 20EMA AND THE 50EMA ALL THREE MOVING DOWNWARD TOWARD THE 200EMA BELOW AND THE PRICE EVEN LOWER – PRICE IS AT A STRONG LEVEL AND BELOW THE EMA'S AND THE WEEKLY 50EMA
THE STRONG LEVEL IS NOW A BARRIER TO ANY MOVE DOWN AND THE EMA'S AND SIGNIFICANT LEVEL A BARRIER TO A MOVE UP – CONVERGENT MACD
I
So now ASK : is the price likely to go up or go down OR STALL?
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