Nzd.usd

[Aussie]

New Zealand Dollar Likely to Drop Below 50 U.S. Cents, AMP Says

By Tracy Withers

Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand’s dollar may fall below 50 U.S. cents for the first time since 2002 as a deepening global recession drags down commodity prices, said AMP Capital Investors Ltd., the nation’s biggest non-government fund manager.

“There is still some downside risk in the context of the global slowdown,” Jason Wong, director of AMP Capital investment strategy, told reporters in Wellington. “Commodity prices are probably going to remain pretty weak.”

Prices of New Zealand’s raw materials exports fell 24 percent last year, curbing the incomes of farmers and helping push the nation into its first recession in 10 years. New Zealand’s currency slumped 31 percent versus the U.S. dollar the past 12 months, the second-worst performance among the 16 most- traded currencies against the greenback.

The currency was the fourth-best performer in 2002 through 2007. “History shows that when we go from periods of extreme overvaluation we go to extreme undervaluation,” Wong said.

The currency is likely to fall below 50 U.S. cents, he said, without making a detailed forecast. It bought 52.73 cents at 3:15 p.m. in Wellington trading.

Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard cut interest rates by 3.25 percentage points since July. He’ll probably cut the rate at least 1 point to 4 percent on Jan. 29, according to all 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Bollard probably will lower the rate to 3 percent later in the year and may trim it further, Wong said.

Still, there’s a limit to how low the rate can go because New Zealand banks need to keep deposit rates high enough to attract money from local and overseas savers and investors.

Local Funding

“If they reduced rates to zero then where are banks going to get their money?” Wong said. “If I was a trading bank boss I’d be whispering to Alan that you’ve got to take that into account when you’re setting interest rates.”

New Zealand needs to maintain a higher rate than other countries to attract overseas funds, he said.

“We have to stand out to some extent so people lend to us to support our spending habits,” he said. “If you’ve got lower interest rates that just makes it more difficult.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602097&sid=a_LXQA2v7OXs&refer=world_currencies

[Dr_Who]

In the long term NZD may go below 50 cents.

I think the market has factored into the price of a weak economy and RB cutting rates 1% with the drop from 60 to 52 cents.

I had a chance to short the kiwi at 59 cents and I didnt. :confused:

[Nevl]

In the long term NZD may go below 50 cents.

I think the market has factored into the price of a weak economy and RB cutting rates 1% with the drop from 60 to 52 cents.

I had a chance to short the kiwi at 59 cents and I didnt. :confused:

Me too. Nevermind. Anyway it is strange to see Kiwi was very strong overnight and is sitting mid 53 range. Given the fonterra pay out and OCR decision i was expecting much lower. NZ $ seems to have more in common with the DOW than the NZ economy. If it decouples then it will be fun.

Am short Kiwi but long Dow and hope to see this decouple after 9am when Bollard makes his call. I am wondering if he will drop 1.5% as this would make sense. If the end is going to be 3% then get there sooner rather than later in my opinion. The Kiwi still needs to drop to .45 for the long term health of NZ. Imports are still too high and a short export prices will be pressured by the EU and other countires protectionist moves. The Kiwi will have to be lower to compensate for that.

[AMR]

Rate cut all but priced in by traders already.

Dr Who I feel worse. Not only did I not sell short but it was in the face of every technical indicator telling me to short :mad:

[Nevl]

not as priced in as we thought!! Anyway i expect the Kiwi to meander downwards when the Euro traders wake up in London so will put in a stop to protect my profits and hopefully watch it hit the 50 cent mark soon

[peat]

I'm bearish , support at 5250 has now become resistance , negated by going above 53

see a head and a shoulders in here over the last few days.

[Mysterybox]

I'm bearish , support at 5250 has now become resistance , negated by going above 53

see a head and a shoulders in here over the last few days.

:) am watching. thanks peat

[peat]

do please take everything I post with the proverbial grain of salt and DYOR tags attached Mysterybox
My own trade was stopped out on that spike above 53 tho I re-entered again once it broke the uptrend last night at 2100 on Feb 12th , and although this new trade has offered a max of 80 pips I havent bagged any - its jumpin around like a demon. not quite so sure what its doing now.

[Mysterybox]

do please take everything I post with the proverbial grain of salt and DYOR tags attached Mysterybox


Yes, I enter when my own rules permit. Thanks

[peat]

not quite so sure what its doing now.

decided it had turned

stopped -30 and reversed at .5241 currently +30 but yeh getting a bit jerked due to my fickleness

all trades visible here

[roddy]

Hi Peat,
i havent posted for awhile, but have been trading my short got filled on this one .4965 this morning
cheers
roddy

[peat]

hey roddy! glad to hear you're still around and trading.... I've got no kiwi trades open at the moment. riding my USDCAD up last night.

[roddy]

Thanks Peat

i have been trading 50 day breakout strategy since Nov and a bit of an oversight on my part,but i should of been long CAD at 1.2764,just hadnt updated my EOD from infoscan from Friday close

[Dr_Who]

Short NZD at .5050?

[arco]

Short NZD at .5050?

What is the reasoning for this trade?

Where is the target?

[Dr_Who]

What is the reasoning for this trade?

Where is the target?

I have not made the trade yet, just asking a ques.

RB is due to announce soon. Was expecting the OCR to go lower.

[Rif-Raf]

I have not made the trade yet, just asking a ques.

RB is due to announce soon. Was expecting the OCR to go lower.

Announcement due next Thursday 12 March. Will they make another cut?

[patsy]

Announcement due next Thursday 12 March. Will they make another cut?

Bollard has a history of supporting and advocating for a low NZD. His track record (e.g., his trip to Japan a couple of years ago to let the Japanese know that he'd do anything to collapse the NZD... his intervention in July 2007 to lower the NZD.... his recent 150 point cut the day after the Fonterra pay-out to ensure that farmers get more NZD.... his recent speech in which he said that the best way to insulate the NZ economy was a low NZD) points to his single focus on debasing the currency at any cost.

Will he cut?? Most likely. However, the RB of Australia decision on Tuesday not to cut must have fallen like a stone in his stomach. ANZ is forecasting NZD/AUD of 0.70 in weeks to come so the outlook is that he'll cut.

[roddy]

Hi Patsy,
It will be an interesting scenario if RBNZ cuts and we could end up with lower ocr than AUD.I trade solely price and i am still short on the kiwi,and have been trading a simple trend following system which seems to be working okay!

[patsy]

Hi Patsy,
It will be an interesting scenario if RBNZ cuts and we could end up with lower ocr than AUD.I trade solely price and i am still short on the kiwi,and have been trading a simple trend following system which seems to be working okay!

I think that the RB of Australia decision not to cut curtailed the rate cut size that Bollard would have liked (that's what I was referring to in my previous post). However, I believe that he will go ahead anyway, and this will push interest rates lower than those in Oz.... with the consequent further debasing of the NZD as he wants. A further drop of 10% of NZD versus AUD is what is being currently forecast by Ozzie banks. He believes that a sense of prosperity can be achieved by low interest rates, just as Greenspan believed after 9/11 leading to a massive credit bubble and the US debacle we now see. With the current RBNZ policies we have now, we are stuffed as a country.

[Dr_Who]

Short NZD at .5050?

nzdusd at 4979, very happy with my short position. May cover soon I guess. :)

[arco]

Hi Patsy,
It will be an interesting scenario if RBNZ cuts and we could end up with lower ocr than AUD.I trade solely price and i am still short on the kiwi,and have been trading a simple trend following system which seems to be working okay!

Hi Roddy - long time no see

November 2000 the rate was down to .3900. Currently its retraced nearly 78.6 (Fib) from the high

arco

[roddy]

Hi ARCO,

Yes it has been awhile,its raining in the bay today,not to good for this years vintage!
.3900 is where i anticipate things going too as well

cheers
roddy

[Dr_Who]

The NZD is surprisingly strong against the USD. Why is it so strong?

[peat]

50 pip spread !!

50 pt cut

perfect bearish gartley at 5128

[Dr_Who]

Cut my loss and covered my short position this morning. I am glad I did, cos the NZD is trending up.

[roddy]

Hi DR and Peat,

finally got stopped out this morning but have a short in at 5118 for a target of 40 points below

[Nevl]

Cut my loss and covered my short position this morning. I am glad I did, cos the NZD is trending up.

Actually may be to do with the fact that the NZ economy is less negative than other countries and the Govt policy got a good write up in the WSJ and the Australian. 3% is also pretty high. still Bollard should have gone to 2.5% No point is waiting really. Still he is unsure of giving impetus to a dead cat bounce i guess

[arco]

50 pip spread !!

50 pt cut

perfect bearish gartley at 5128

Also potential Bearish BF forming on the Hour.

.

[peat]

Hi DR and Peat,

finally got stopped out this morning but have a short in at 5118 for a target of 40 points below

hey you've justabout got em, i averaged .5120

[Dr_Who]

Just hit 52 :eek:

I am glade I covered my short yesterday morning even thou i made a lost. Learnt a good lesson. :confused:

[roddy]

Hi Peat,

hay good going Peat did you collect on the retrace?
i missed because i had a 20 point stop from 5118 so was stopped out i was risking 20 to make 40
cheers

roddy

[peat]

nah i got stopped too Roddy....kiwi always tempts and rarely gives - never mind its been a pretty good week overall - i'm not complaining to the forex gods.

[lakedaemonian]

wow! big move to .5430 thus far

[Aussie]

wow! big move to .5430 thus far

USD Index fell off big time with that Fed announcement. Gold +$55.

[Dr_Who]

Will the NZD USD continue to climb or consolidate from here?

[Dr_Who]

NZD hit 56 cents this morning. :eek:

[arco]

NZD hit 56 cents this morning. :eek:

Butterfly on the horizon. 1272 North 4H.

[Dr_Who]

Butterfly on the horizon. 1272 North 4H.

Please translate! I dont understand. :confused:

[russki]

http://www.forextradingplus.com/gartley-patterns.htm

[roddy]

Hi ALL,

I was long Nzd,Euro and short Aud/nzd before fomc staement,as i trade 20 day breakout! entries were 1.3003 and a second lot at 1.3484 on the Euro and the kiwi at.5313.my positions weren't that large but nonetheless have still picked up some worthwhile pips

i exited the Aud/nzd as it wasnt going anywhere early last nite tho it since has!The other trades still open i am targeting 1.39 on the Euro and on the kiwi if i get the room will be using ATR to decide my exit

cheers

roddy

[peat]

as i trade 20 day breakout!
daily close above SMA?

[roddy]

Hi Peat,

no just a price which is either the highest over the last 20 days or the lowest over the last 20 days.just a trend following system,which does have draw downs.
i throw a box at it so i can see at a glance whats happening,if the market isnt trending the system doesnt make money and i have draw down

[Dr_Who]

How high will the NZD go against the USD before coming back down to earth?

[Xerof]

.5785, if it hasn't already peaked

;);)

[Xerof]

Sorry fella's, I was 14 pips too low

Anyway, good ol' 161.8% held it v nicely

[arco]

Sorry fella's, I was 14 pips too low

Anyway, good ol' 161.8% held it v nicely

Butterflies abound and Fibonacci rules from afar (again) :)

[peat]

relevant only in the sense that NZD reacted swiftly to Bollards comments y'day - interesting to see Bernard Hickey on interest.co.nz saying that Alan can jawbone the markets all he likes but apart from the OCR (which only affects short term rates) and by selling the Kiwi, the RBNZ has little impact on longer term rates, and that maybe NZ should embrace higher interest rates to encourage savers - after all he says its spenders who got the world into this mess in the first place
I'm sure you can find the vid yourself if you're interested.

me? I still happy to have locked in 6.5 for 5 yrs with current 5 yr rate from Wpac 7.6 and my rollover in 10 days.

[patsy]

maybe NZ should embrace higher interest rates to encourage savers - after all he says its spenders who got the world into this mess in the first place



Completely agree.

Unfortunately, Bollard comes from the wet, chardonnay socialist, Keynessian paradigm, which believes that GDP growth should be driven by consumption growth rather than by investment and exporting. If he unconditionally supported the NZD, then exporters would be focusing on productivity, innovation and process redesign rather than begging a weak NZD.

[lakedaemonian]

.5785, if it hasn't already peaked

;);)

Holy Moley!

.5882 at the moment!

Getting nutty.......

Does this change the short-to-medium term shift lower?

I'm getting more confused by the day........I WAS happy to shift a big chunk of Kiwi into USD when it becomes available shortly, thinking that anything over .55 would be a gift....but now feeling a bit gunshy......


My gut says it's just a bigger gift.......

[Dr_Who]

It looks like the market is taking on the RB of NZ and winning for now.

[ynot]

Holy Moley!

.5882 at the moment!

Getting nutty.......

Does this change the short-to-medium term shift lower?

I'm getting more confused by the day........I WAS happy to shift a big chunk of Kiwi into USD when it becomes available shortly, thinking that anything over .55 would be a gift....but now feeling a bit gunshy......


My gut says it's just a bigger gift.......

I would not buy a big chunk of USD, period !
Not that the kiwi is strong but i think the USD is toast.

[lakedaemonian]

I would not buy a big chunk of USD, period !
Not that the kiwi is strong but i think the USD is toast.

Not planning on keeping it in USD for long.......looking to swap for more gold/silver/energy

NZD can now buy approx 25% more gold/silver than a month ago

[dumbass]

CAUTION the little bird has never done me any favours.
SHORT , divergence on RSI.
trend line test.
evening star with a shooting star candlestick reversal.
RISK at 59.90 target 49.00

[arco]

Nice chart DB

Drop (C) leg Gartley terminating with an ES - looks very interesting

[dumbass]

i looked at this as possible spanner in the works.

kiwi has declined in a channel from october but could indicate a breakout.

still favour short scenario.

[Craig3215]

Looking at the 10 year chart that .60 level looks like it could be a brick wall

[dumbass]

starting to look like its rolling over , there was a nice entry on the retracement with risk level staying intact

[peat]

yeh that was a good call DA- it did rally for few days after your post and created a bit of a gartley actually and i entered there.

[peat]

max mckegg has put out an interesting update on our little nocturnal biped ... not what I would've expected.

[blackcap]

Is Max still around is he? Used to work for a firm that received Max's updates for free. Always an interesting read but that was about 10 years ago.

What is he charging for his subscription these days?

[peat]

http://www.trl.co.nz/index.html

he gives NZ'ers much better rates though so ask first.

[dumbass]

hi peat , is max bullish on the kiwi ?

[peat]

DA he says the current downtrend (ignoring last night) is corrective !
... and is expecting a low of somewhere around 53 (51 maximum) and then up to late 60's

lets see

[blackcap]

Cheers for the heads up on Max, will have a little look once I have more time.

Always interesting the way he views things, not that he always gets it right but he can be spot on sometimes.

[Dr_Who]

NZD dollar is STRONG! :eek:

Cant see it coming down much if global market continues to rally.

[Steve]

Can anyone see the budget this week putting a cap on the rise in the Kiwi?

[dumbass]

i think its not got a lot to do with the kiwi, its more us dollar weakness and therefore the budget is unlikely to be anything other than a minor distraction.

[Dr_Who]

I never understand currency thats why I dont trade forex.

[Lego_Man]

Neither do i. My gut says that the budget is going to be a bit of a dog's breakfast, and the S&P boys wont like it - which should knock off a couple of cents.

But that's not really based on any hard evidence.

[Dr_Who]

NZD is incredibly strong against the USD, even with the our large debt and potential dairy subsidies disaster.

[roddy]

NZD is incredibly strong against the USD, even with the our large debt and potential dairy subsidies disaster.

yes we seem very strong against the green back weakness we are only 8 cents off 70 cents unbelievable oh and btw the last candle should be green showing perhaps some resistance short term at fib 161.8
roddy

[Dr_Who]

Anyone know how high the NZD will go?

It just doesnt make sense for the NZD to be so strong. Can be detrimental to the NZ economy if it continues to climb.

[arco]

Anyone know how high the NZD will go?

It just doesnt make sense for the NZD to be so strong. Can be detrimental to the NZ economy if it continues to climb.

No one really knows the answer to that question - but 67-68 is a possibility IMO

[dumbass]

there is a possibility around the 50 % fib level which is where wave A = C
got divergence on rsi as well which should mean a top is close but you would have to say no sign of it at the moment.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/durzina1.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

[peat]

mary holm doesnt think anybody knows.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10575353

Of all the financial forecasts - on interest rates or the prices of shares, bonds, currency rates or even classic cars - perhaps the toughest to predict are foreign exchange rates

[Dr_Who]

I am wondering if the NZD is subject to manipulation?

For a large hedge, it wouldnt take much to push the NZD up and down. I recall this is waht Soros did to the SE Asian currency back in pre 1997 crash.

[peat]

Dr Who

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research/bulletin/2007_2011/2007sep70_3.pdf

The first third of that article is a profile of the NZ forex market.

"In 2006 transaction volumes had increased to over 5.5 billion per day. "

[dumbass]

there is a possibility around the 50 % fib level which is where wave A = C
got divergence on rsi as well which should mean a top is close but you would have to say no sign of it at the moment.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/durzina1.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

hit and reversed right on the A = C AT 66 still feels its going to have legs to 70 though but short.

[Dr_Who]

NZD dollar shot straight back up again.

Took no notice of the RB or the MPs hot air.

[dumbass]

kiwi has reversed in 66 area and price has retraced sharply watching the trendline for a break to possibly confirm further move lower.





http://iforce.co.nz/i/kpswtnlc.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

[arco]

.

3-400 pips perhaps

[JoeBlogs]

I think so arco

I'm short Kiwi as of today, initial target around the 0.60 area.

Slight upside surprise to Brittish data this evening adds upside risk, but I think everything else points to the downside for Kiwi. Looking for trendline break and below 0.6150 to confirm.

[dumbass]

price has rallied of the green channel line so possibly a move higher on kiwi
a nice short entry would present if kiwi managed to get up to 64 80 where a short gartley is waiting and the major red trend line.




http://iforce.co.nz/i/pa432g5n.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

[arco]

I guess there is the potential for up to another 30-100 pips north, but I've already had a nice scalp (long) on that, and have taken the profit.

Will wait now for the reversal signal, and hope for a nice ride down.

[dumbass]

price has rallied of the green channel line so possibly a move higher on kiwi
a nice short entry would present if kiwi managed to get up to 64 80 where a short gartley is waiting and the major red trend line.


Not bad only 1c out, short from 6470 but still got a bullish slant to it, so stop to b/e .

[dumbass]

this is another that is showing bullish slant against USD

closed out short for 200 + and reversed to long 62 80 for target 67

[AMR]

this is another that is showing bullish slant against USD

closed out short for 200 + and reversed to long 62 80 for target 67

Nicelydone - how did you pick that??

[Dr_Who]

Jeeze Dumbass, you are a guru when it comes to currency.

I ve always had bad luck in forex so I dont trade it. Whats ya next pick?

[STRAT]

Hi Guys.
Do you see the probability of the USD going down over the next few weeks?
Hi Dumbass.
Some time ago I asked for a bit of help withe Chinese dollar and at the time info proved hard to come by. I have since gained access to that info as IC now has forex included. Dunno if thats useful to you or not.

[dumbass]

Thank's for the kind words gentleman.
Where to from here?
There is a strong correlation at the moment between equities and currency markets, there seems to be a lot of technical opinion suggesting a top is in place in equities and therefore by default i am looking at bullish extension towards sp 1000 and the final leg down in USD.

kiwi is always a good risk indicator , still long with a target around 0.68 - 0.69.

However the market is at a critical juncture, and it is very dangerous having opinions so i am watching closely for market leads and am positioned for a break either way.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/mjeywnee.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

[STRAT]

Thanks Dumbass

[JoeBlogs]

I'm still short Kiwi in anticipation of the equities correction continuing. 'Tis a bit of a gamble though with USD possibly looking at another leg down.

I anticipate a drop in the S&P500 tonight to end the week below 900.

If all the stars line up, I think we'll see a sustained down-trend in Kiwi, possibly to 55c over the coming weeks.

[dumbass]

this is another that is showing bullish slant against USD

closed out short for 200 + and reversed to long 62 80 for target 67


closed the long trade for +180 pips,

back again at the strong resistance at 64 80 , triangle set up which im expecting will break to the upside but a good place to take profits.

[adamcz]

Been watching this thread with some interest. Purcahsed some USD a few weeks back around 62. Went on what i thought at the time and didnt look at the charts. Ive had a few opportunities to exit but have stuck with it. Now Im trying to understand all these charts and indicators to try and help understand if i should be staying in or trying to exit

Dumbass - why do you expect to break on the upside

[dumbass]

hi adam , the kiwi is in the final stages of completing its rally against the US dollar , the triangle pattern on the chart which in technical analysis terms is classified as a ascending triangle which if it has been preceded by an uptrend is bullish.
i use a type of analysis called elliot wave and often these triangles are in the fourth wave preceding a final fifth wave to a new top before price reverses.

[adamcz]

Thanks, will watch with interest on how it pans out and hope for a big trend down after that 5th. Always find it hard working out where to start trends, always seems obvious when someone posts though. Guess it all just comes down to homework and watching

[dumbass]

Big trends are the thing to ride Adam , if you can identify them early enough.
heres where i reckon kiwi may reverse.
Very interesting that US dollar appears to be breaking to the downside which probably hints at a new high for equities.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/mjeywnee.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

[JoeBlogs]

It has begun......

Roll on 55 c.

What do you reckon dumbass?

Convincing break to the downside, or too soon to tell? Appreciate your opinion.

[macduffy]

Interesting article here by Brian Gaynor on the most speculative currency in the world - the NZD.

Discusses the adverse effects on NZ exporters but doesn't offer any solutions.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501241&objectid=10582422&pnum=0

[srotherh]

Interesting article here by Brian Gaynor on the most speculative currency in the world - the NZD.

Discusses the adverse effects on NZ exporters but doesn't offer any solutions.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501241&objectid=10582422&pnum=0

macduffy

A great article
Scary thing is we can be played up and down by Hedge funds with little control by government. See lots more volatity to come. Not good for us as a country.

"More than 90 per cent of NZ dollar trades are against the US dollar yet the Reserve Bank estimates that only 59 per cent of New Zealand's overseas trade is transacted in this currency.

These figures clearly indicate that the NZ dollar has great liquidity, is widely traded, overseas investors dominate trading activity and only a tiny percentage of the transactions are trade related. In other words the Kiwi is one of the world's most speculative currencies and is the Las Vegas or Reno of the currency world.

The NZ dollar is a highly traded and speculative currency because it is totally deregulated, it is volatile, our economy is perceived to be commodity based, the NZ Government and Reserve Bank are too small to undertake effective intervention and there isn't a large enough pool of local private capital to influence the market.

This makes the NZ dollar extremely difficult to forecast because it is primarily driven by speculation - rather than fundamentals - and many of these speculators are relatively uninformed about New Zealand."

[peat]

Discusses the adverse effects on NZ exporters but doesn't offer any solutions.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501241&objectid=10582422&pnum=0

Isnt the solution obvious. All businesses with any sort of foreign currency exposure need to make themselves capable of hedging appropriately. Surely this is a major opportunity for local brokers?

[macduffy]

There wasn't anything in the article that we didn't know, except the extremes to which this speculation has developed.
The NZD has been a favourite of currency speculators/investors ever since it was floated in 1984. It's always been standard advice for exporters to take forward cover to lock in their profit margins but there is a cost to this and many prefer to take a punt on a favourable trend and/or think that they can "read the market".
I used to believe that that was because so many of them were conditioned by their experiences in the late 70's/early 80's, especially during the time of the "crawling peg" when the NZD only moved one way, and in their favour!
But that was a long time ago and surely that influence has well and truly disappeared.

[winner69]

It's always been standard advice for exporters to take forward cover to lock in their profit margins but there is a cost to this

Easy to say take foreard cover but its not a free lunch either .... the cost is quite high and cash strapped businesses often can't afford to front up with the premiums

Although intent is to provide certainty around what costs or whatever it also hurts at times to see the cost of forward cover going down the 'gurgler' if the currency didn't do what you expected.

If only on knew eh?

[macduffy]

Yes, the cost of forward cover has to be viewed in the same light as the cost of production, freight and insurance.
If an export deal won't stand up to these costs and return a reasonable profit then it's not viable and shouldn't be done. Hard but true.

[winner69]

Yes, the cost of forward cover has to be viewed in the same light as the cost of production, freight and insurance.
If an export deal won't stand up to these costs and return a reasonable profit then it's not viable and shouldn't be done. Hard but true.

Thats the key issue eh macduffy ... competitiveness

Sad but true many NZ companies not competitive with the rest of the world unless the NZD is weak

Another thing that happens is importers think they have a price advantage if they get their hedging right .... but forget that the competitor down the road is just as clever and has hedged as well

[newbietrader]

is our NZ's RB printing money to cope with US Fed's quantitive easing??

[Capitalist]

In respect of most companies - like Line 7 - there is only a premium if they are buying options.

Companies like this make all sorts of excuses about hedging and the NZD being the cause of their woes -it's nonsense - they know whether they are buyers or sellers for crying out loud.

What they want to do is to make money out of hedging, not just hedge. That is their downfall.

[macduffy]

In respect of most companies - like Line 7 - there is only a premium if they are buying options.

Companies like this make all sorts of excuses about hedging and the NZD being the cause of their woes -it's nonsense - they know whether they are buyers or sellers for crying out loud.

What they want to do is to make money out of hedging, not just hedge. That is their downfall.

I'm well out of date with this but yes, that used to be the case.

A combination of reluctance to incur the cost, a "feeling for the forex market" and an inclination to take a punt.

I would hope that serious exporters are well past that, but hey, that's human nature!

[Dr_Who]

If it is not the exchange rate, it will be the Chinese.. blah blah blah... We have heard it all before. A few months ago the finance crisis was the blame, but now it is the exchange rate. It was a mater of time really.

Went into the Line 7 store today. Even with a 60% discount there was nothing there worth buying, so bought some stuff from the Timberland store instead. The clothing are boring and blend with little imagination. Looks like all the clothes in Hallenstein and Farmers but at 4x the price tag.

[JoeBlogs]

Surely the only way from here is down? Thoughts?

[adamcz]

I'm hoping so but think it will trade within the 62-65 range until we get some news from company financials and/or changes in the OCR.

Some more commentry from someone who can chart would be great.

[JoeBlogs]

It's actually more to do with technicals associated with the S&P500. If S&P closes below 880 tonight we should see USD break to the upside finally, there's pretty strong resistance though so I'm not holding my breath. If it doesn't happen tonight, it will almost certainly happen next week........

[Steve]

Where to with the NZDUSD with the recent announcements - a push towards 70c or a possible dip to 55c by the end of the year like some commentators are saying?

[JoeBlogs]

Yep, one of those ;)

Anyones guess with the market flip-flopping every week. At least it makes for great trading! Got short Kiwi again at 65 c after making a few pips on the way up.

[dumbass]

Big trends are the thing to ride Adam , if you can identify them early enough.
here's where i reckon kiwi may reverse.
Very interesting that US dollar appears to be breaking to the downside which probably hints at a new high for equities.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/mjeywnee.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

looks like kiwi breaking to the upside in the final wave higher.

looking for a top around 69.

down trend line has been broken,a retest of this line may be an opportunity for a long entry.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/dm5gapnq.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=dm5gapnq.jpg)

[Dr_Who]

Hey Dumdass, tell us when you will go short the Kiwi, I may follow you.

I am planning for the kiwi to hit the top and go for a long dated short position.

[dumbass]

hey dr i am happy to share my thoughts.
im guessing you are setting up for a long term trade from the short side rather than a straddle trade going long and short .

[dumbass]

nzd usd climbing against a back drop of us dollar weakness

+ 350 pips on long trade and nothing yet to suggest target of 69.50 can not be reached.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/e30lpyhh.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=e30lpyhh.jpg)

[dumbass]

Hey Dumdass, tell us when you will go short the Kiwi, I may follow you.

I am planning for the kiwi to hit the top and go for a long dated short position.

hey dr , some candlestick patterns printing on the daily that may suggest the recent rally is starting to falter.
the red lines on the chart are possible prices to watch, for a reversal.

69 area has a fib cluster which i feel will provide significant upside resistance.

this seems a logical area to enter short if price reacts from this area .

i cant guarantee its the big move lower but could provide a profitible short BUT you need to watch the reaction at this level before pulling the trigger.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/ycct5rjn.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=ycct5rjn.jpg)

[adamcz]

Hi dumbass just wondering if you have any further commentary on the NZD/USD. I got a a while ago and am looking to get back in again

[Dr_Who]

Thanks DA.

Forex is not my cup of tea. I always get it wrong, hence I stay away from it. I am keeping a close eye on those commodities, once they turn, I will sell out my resource portfolio and also short the NZD.

Thanks in advance fro your advice.

[arco]

Thanks DA.

Forex is not my cup of tea. I always get it wrong, hence I stay away from it. I am keeping a close eye on those commodities, once they turn, I will sell out my resource portfolio and also short the NZD.

Thanks in advance fro your advice.

If you always get it wrong why not put an order on in the opposite direction - then you will always get it right :)

[dumbass]

Hi dumbass just wondering if you have any further commentary on the NZD/USD. I got a a while ago and am looking to get back in again

hi adam , looks like usd strength is gaining momentum so top could well be in on kiwi and aud.
the nzd printed the shooting star which is a reversal pattern.
there was an interesting divergence between equities and forex at the end of last week which gave a clue that things may be close to topping out.( equity rally but us dollar strength)
my personal feeling is that there maybe one more rally for equities SP 500 1040 area and final leg lower for usd .It pays to listen to the market though and at the present moment us dollar is strong but there is big event risk from the fed tonight.

[blackcap]

maybe not quite yet, moving like a yoyo today (Europe) and back up to 67.13 but while I write the US market is in a serious upwards mood. Would be keen to see some USD strength as im short the Kiwi but maybe a little more to go before it retraces properly. The Euro is also coming up but still hovering around the 1.42 so not as bullish as last week.

[adamcz]

Just to be curious what do you guys use for your charting. Want to start trying to use them more but in order to do that would like to have the tools to hand.

[arco]

Just to be curious what do you guys use for your charting. Want to start trying to use them more but in order to do that would like to have the tools to hand.

Metatrader - its free and you will get all the currencies + gold and silver and a few others depending on the provider.

[Dr_Who]

How do you guys sleep at night holding a forex position? NZD/USA had a big jump overnight.

[arco]

How do you guys sleep at night holding a forex position? NZD/USA had a big jump overnight.

You just take 6 very strong sleeping tablets, and set the alarm for 7am. Once up you nervously say a little prayer, and fire up the computer while keeping your fingers crossed.

Worse case scenario is you've forgotten to place a stop, and you are a 1000 pips down.

However, if you have remembered the stop it will have protected you from a move in the wrong direction. Then again you may be +100 pips.

Great fun :D, but not for those of a nervous disposition.

arco

[Dr_Who]

LOL arco, you crack me up mate.

My poor old heart cannot take that kind of abuse, hence I dont trade forex. lol

[arco]

DB

Looks like the action will test the broken TL, and maybe thats the reversal point. Any wave count ATM?

Monthly Ichi is still bearish with the Kumo turned bearish in the future.



http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/b8ba2d1523.gif (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)

[peat]

How do you guys sleep at night holding a forex position? NZD/USA had a big jump overnight.

stops and position sizing Dr.
Oanda allows trades of any size. this is pretty useful for minnows and learners.

[arco]

Heres the weekly view

The orange bar denotes the long term Ichi entry from the weekly chart showing 650 pips presently.



http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/e2edf2db2b.gif (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)

[dumbass]

kiwi showing a few more signs that the 5th wave is nearing completion.
another shooting star pattern hitting and reversing of one of the red fib levels.
looks like a 33333 ending diagonal.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/v3dj30y4.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=v3dj30y4.jpg)

[Dr_Who]

Can you guys please translate into English.

[arco]

can you guys please translate into english.

少数に第5波が完了に近づいているというより多くの印を示すキーウィ。 赤い他愛ない嘘の1つの当り、逆転する別の流星パターンは水平になる。 33333終了の対角線のように見える。

:d

[STRAT]

Can you guys please translate into English.going down and in Arcos last post something about India:D

[dumbass]

Can you guys please translate into English.

its nearly time doc to go up to your bedroom open your wardrobe and put your shorts on.

the kiwi maybe going down !

[arco]

Here's the weekly Ichi view.

Ichi gave a long entry off the weekly chart in MAY for a max 750 pips to date.

The action is currently through the Kumo and the CS is approaching the Kumo resistance. Once KS (blue) flattens it should attract the action. Advance Kumo has crossed bullish, so we still need to monitor this to confirm the actual turnaround point.

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/32932ec198.gif (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)

[Dr_Who]

its nearly time doc to go up to your bedroom open your wardrobe and put your shorts on.

the kiwi maybe going down !

O for Awesome!

Commodities got hit on Friday. Seems like the AUD and NZD tracks the commodity prices.

May have to short NZD/USD to hedge against my resource holdings. Or even go long on USD/NZD.

[Dr_Who]

Am I correct to say NZD can head higher? My pathetic attempt to read the graph.

[arco]

Am I correct to say NZD can head higher? My pathetic attempt to read the graph.

Kiwi is still in the up trend channel, but there is some resistance around .7000 where an old broken TL also sits defending the way ahead

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/f26ed19a50.gif (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)

[peat]

http://www.findata.co.nz/Blogs/319/Time_to_sell_Kiwi_dollars_buy_USD.htm

[arco]

Still within the channel and forward Kumo not turned bearish yet.

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/b6d3b55167.gif (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)

[dumbass]

kiwi worth a look , nice 5 down 3 up correction , with gartleyesque properties.
short.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/0msveuoq.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=0msveuoq.jpg)

[arco]

Hi Paul

IMO the action may rise a little first into the grey box zone.

H4 chart is bearish on Ichi, and 30m is close to turning over.

http://i32.tinypic.com/2gtdx7s.gif

[arco]

Action has been into the grey zone mentioned and as
shown in previous chart

http://i25.tinypic.com/wi4h8x.gif

[arco]

Kiwi's looking a bit sad...............Spinning Tops all over the show which is a warning the market is loosing momentum.

H1 plot into thick Kumo, with leading Kumo turned bearish........ Perhaps a little fall of 100 pips would do it good.

No position as yet, but keeping a watchful eye,, and will pounce if the opportunity arises.

http://i28.tinypic.com/2w24dqq.gif

[peat]

maybe like this?

only gave this a fifteen pip stop.

[peat]

only got 23 off that myself tho there was up to 50 , BUT
theres a gartley on the 30 min chart now and divergence

[arco]

Hi Peat

Yes, that Gartley looks interesting. Daily Ichi chart is way off breaking, but the H4 is close.

Will be watching for a break in either direction, and see what transpires.

[Steve]

A nice juicy spike upwards past 7100 - start of a push up to 7425?

[Dr_Who]

I am keeping a close eye on the NZD. One of these days when it starts to turn big time, I will short the living daylights out of it and hold the short position for a period of time.

[peat]

Dr Who
There has been a story going round just recently of someone else who 'took a massive punt' on a similar vein , and apparently there wasnt a happy ending.

Just a gentle reminder that one shouldnt ever dismiss prudent money management techniques with all speculations. know your acceptable losses - never gambol the farm.

We all know the kiwi is an unpredictable litte bird that seems to defy the odds a lot.

this rally in all the markets even if it is a bear rally seems to have a lot of steam and not only could go a fair way but esp in currencies could have a big spike at the end

[Xerof]

Doctor

might have to wait a while - trending still - mid 75's might see some resistance

Hi Peat, how you goin'

[arco]

Potential target zone in the grey box.

Thick Red line is plotted at 7427 = possible Kumo resistance, with an old UT line that will be tested (white box area).

http://i28.tinypic.com/241npyo.gif

[Dr_Who]

Thanks for the caution guys, much appreciated.

I am not talking about going short now. I may have to wait a year or two, but that kiwi cant stay up forever. When the day comes (and it will come), I will be there to short it all the way.

[bung5]

Thanks for the caution guys, much appreciated.

I am not talking about going short now. I may have to wait a year or two, but that kiwi cant stay up forever. When the day comes (and it will come), I will be there to short it all the way.


likewise, low leverage but long trade will do the job nicely

[arco]

NZD/USD could slide down elevator after making climb up stairs, says TD Securities economist Annette Beacher. Says NZD supported by economic fundamentals, yield appetite, "risk-on" hot money but that as 2010 unfolds, bond supply will exceed demand and profit-taking will emerge as foreign demand for bonds underpinning NZD rise. "Our year-end 2010 forecast of US$0.60 reflects these concerns." Pair last 0.7209. Says upbeat data flow raising expectations RBNZ will no longer need extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy; recent explosion of appetite for NZ bonds fuelled by improved liquidity from outsized issuance program; global cash sloshing around seeking non-USD assets. Beacher says 2010 will be different story as RBNZ moves toward neutral, curtailing nascent consumption, housing recovery; bond issuance may outstrip demand with government to issue NZ$11.4 billion in 2010-11 vs NZ$8.9 billion in 2009-10; NZ$14.5 billion in 2011-12.

NZD/USD vulnerable to USD short-covering ahead of G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh later this week, says RBC Capital Markets strategist Sue Trinh. Adds many short dollar positions stretched, while S&P overnight underwent "a key day reversal." "If that gets follow though tonight, risk proxies (such as NZD) will bear the brunt of equity market weakness." Trinh says rumors of RBNZ intervention likely mistaken for routine central bank transactions. Adds NZD/USD risks selling down to 0.7060. Pair last at 0.7208.

[arco]

Potential target zone in the grey box.

Thick Red line is plotted at 7427 = possible Kumo resistance, with an old UT line that will be tested (white box area).

http://i28.tinypic.com/241npyo.gif

Heres the PA now playing in the same white box area. (I have re-adjusted the thin red line off the weekly chart)

http://i34.tinypic.com/okrh9j.gif

[arco]

Exports dived in August, blowing the trade deficit out to twice what was expected at $725 million.

The Statistics New Zealand figures showed crude oil exports down by half, mainly due to lower prices, while fewer frozen beef and sheep cuts brought meat exports down by a third.


More............................



http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/2905486/Big-dive-in-exports-surprises-market

[arco]

Useful site for NZD (and many other currencies) against some of the more exotic currencies

http://megatraders.com/pages/nzd_charts.php

[arco]

The New Zealand dollar may fall this week as fears the global recovery may be slower than expected sap demand for higher-yielding, or riskier, assets amid weaker stock markets in the US and Europe.
Five of seven economists and strategists in a BusinessWire survey predict the kiwi dollar will fall this week as equity markets in the US ease from their 12-month highs ahead of the earnings season for the three months to September 30.

Full Sharechat article here (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1b69ee90/dollar-outlook-kiwi-may-fall-as-weaker-equities-prompt-fears-for-recovery.html)

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1b69ee90/dollar-outlook-kiwi-may-fall-as-weaker-equities-prompt-fears-for-recovery.html

[peat]

Five of seven economists...

and they didnt add afterwards "On the other hand...." ??

sorry, this post should be in the jokes thread. :p

[arco]

Yeah Peat - usually good for a contra trade :D

You've really gotta laugh - how do they keep their jobs. Still by the law of averages they must get it right one day........... (perhaps)

[Dr_Who]

You have to love those economist and constantly gets it wrong yet still gets paid.

[Xerof]

Three days later.....ooops

NZ dollar tipped to rise further (http://www.nzx.com/news/markets/2940265/NZ-dollar-tipped-to-rise-further)

Must be time to sell.....:cool:

[arco]

Three days later.....ooops

NZ dollar tipped to rise further (http://www.nzx.com/news/markets/2940265/NZ-dollar-tipped-to-rise-further)

Must be time to sell.....:cool:

The exact reason why I only rely on charting. Blue patch ahead

http://i33.tinypic.com/2hs9frs.gif

[arco]

.
Kumo potential support below. Possible to see a run up towards the heavy red/blue bars and blue box price zones (from H1 chart).


http://i37.tinypic.com/rhmjd4.gif

[arco]

Update

http://i36.tinypic.com/2vct26a.gif

[arco]

Update - max of 76 pips reached overnight when the PA connected with the blue/red lines as mentioned yesterday as a potential target.

http://i34.tinypic.com/au719w.gif

[outspoken]

and a few more just now as retail sales up better than expected

[arco]

and a few more just now as retail sales up better than expected

Yes, I've recently taken a few more off at +100

http://i37.tinypic.com/344ee6h.gif

[dumbass]

stellar rally from the kiwi but all good things must come to an end, pure elliot count warns of exhaustion with top in or one more rally to mid to late 74 and then short for a run to mid to low 60s.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/lbudsqwc.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=lbudsqwc.jpg)

[dumbass]

target met now if this is going to be a reversal point needs to take out 74 level first.

[peat]

butterfly theory says 7520 as ideal and max of 7570

and then wait for confirmation to enter at 7375.

[Xerof]

It's also within spitting distance of 78.6% retracement of the last peak to trough decline 82 to 49

[peat]

my entry point stated earlier got triggered on Fri so I have short positions already , a tad premature perhaps .... I see resistance at around 7410 which is my average entry point

[arco]

HI Peat.
I've got my eye on a possible re-trace of 3 waves.
It already looks like 3 clear waves on H1 chart (although not visable on this H4 chart

http://i37.tinypic.com/b3o8yr.gif

[arco]

Updating - performing as expected (so far).

http://i37.tinypic.com/314yn42.gif

[dumbass]

price action running out of steam and being repelled off trendline.
short at 74.65

http://iforce.co.nz/i/fjupgqoy.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=fjupgqoy.jpg)

[Nevl]

Ouch. Got caught with the big bounce in the Kiwi but doing well on the Aussie crosses as I will be long in Aussie against the Eur and US. Also was long in Japan but expect a pull back in the Kiwi as I do not think Bollard will be as hawkish as the market is expecting.

[arco]

PA hesitated at the 2 grey boxes giving nimble fingers perhaps 50 pips if they scalped a short.

For me still no confirmed reversal, although I snaffled 15 pips a few minutes ago short at the higher grey box.

Now looking to see if this is a medium term top.

http://i34.tinypic.com/2dgua1c.gif

[blackcap]

From a purely layman perspective, I have watched the Kiwi go up up up and up and feel that it must surely come down sometime? I am considering shorting it at the 75 mark with a long term valuation of 60-65.

What is the risk with this approach? Long term the Kiwi bounces between 40 and 85 cents US. so surely around the 75 cent mark the downside potential outweighs the upside?

[arco]

Blackcap

If you can stand a very large stop loss and time is of no consequence the trade may eventually work out for you.

How do you plan to do the trade?

[arco]

I mentioned on the 18th regarding a potential reversal pattern forming on the Kiwi.


The PA reached the channel line yesterday and at that point it was just a case of waiting for a swing point to form and with additional confirmation from a Chikou break an order could be placed below the that point. (Overnight Max circa 75 pips)

http://i35.tinypic.com/wssetj.gif

[blackcap]

Blackcap

If you can stand a very large stop loss and time is of no consequence the trade may eventually work out for you.

How do you plan to do the trade?

Quite simply sell 10k of Usd on my trading platform and wait till it goes back to 63-65 cents.

i know, not very sophisticated but...

[slam]

Hi All
Haven't posted for a while
Anyone manage to grab a few of those 350 odd pips in the last few days
Grabbed 180 but extended further than I thought

Hope some of you got them and more

Cheers
Slam

[peat]

volumes are up.
I dont usually see much fx vol information but this is on interest.co.nz
http://www.interest.co.nz/charts/gallery4-40.asp

[miner]

Hi slam good to see you got some pips off this one,looking for a short at the mo but then every time I play this one I usually get shot out of the sky.

Cheers
Miner

[arco]

I mentioned this trade on the blog this week, along with Aud.Jpy, Loonie, and others. You can follow the Kiwi thread [/URL][URL="http://www.lincolnfx.com/forex-forecasts/tag/6/"]here (http://www.lincolnfx.com/forex-forecasts/2009/11/20/forex-signal-6-nzd-usdlonger-term-trade-update-200-pips/)

http://i46.tinypic.com/2dilnq1.gif

[Dr_Who]

NZD/USD has been so volatile. If you get the trend right, you can make abit of dosh. I am not brave enough to play it. I always get forex trend wrong, maybe just not my thing.

[Steve]

Some people have recently said that there could be a dip to the 66-68 range. How likely can you see that happening?

[arco]

Some people have recently said that there could be a dip to the 66-68 range. How likely can you see that happening?

Hi Steve

Looks feasible

http://tinypic.com/r/287hzs1/6

http://i45.tinypic.com/287hzs1.gif

[blackcap]

Its a strange world isnt it...

cash rate held steady and boom the kiwi dollar goes on a run

[arco]

.

Only a matter of time before it bows the the power of the Purple Trace :)

[Dr_Who]

What do you think about shorting NZD vs USD?

I am thinking of shorting the NZD and hold it for the med term.

[Dr_Who]

Can a chartist give comment on the NZD vs USD chart?

I am thinking of a short position.

[peat]

didnt miner say you should do the opposite of what ever you're thinking of doing. :p

[Dr_Who]

didnt miner say you should do the opposite of what ever you're thinking of doing. :p

lol.. yeah maybe I should. I may even make some money. :D

[Silverlight]

The bullish uptrend on NZDUSD broke down middle of Nov, since this time it has been ranging sideways.

The fundamentals long term for the NZDUSD remain bullish, however it is currently overbought, and is riding the coat-tails of the AUDUSD, and the improved outlook of the Australian economy.

End of 2010 I see the NZD hitting 0.80 again, but in the the next two months we should revisit the 0.70 mark making pushing 0.69 again.

I currently have a small short position on the NZDUSD from 0.7420. There are support levels at 0.73 and 0.71 on the way down, and will reduce the position by one third as we hit these levels. I have stops in place at 0.7450 and 0.7460 close half the position if I am wrong.

[peat]

quite well thought out article on the kiwi....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10620872&pnum=0

Kiwi's wild ride not totally random

Andrew Gawith is a director of Gareth Morgan Investments.

[Silverlight]

NZ's lower than expected 4Q CPI will likely add to the view Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep Official Cash Rate on hold until mid-year.

Stats NZ says 4Q CPI down 0.2% on quarter, lower than flat result picked by economists. RBNZ had tipped 4Q CPI to fall 0.2%.

Annual inflation accelerates to 2.0% vs annual inflation rate of 1.7% in 3Q, still well within RBNZ's 1%-3% target band and lower than 2.1% expected by market.

Non-tradables component, which strips out imported prices, +0.1% vs +1.0% in 4Q while tradables component fell 0.5% vs +1.6% in previous quarter.

[Steve]

So we are expecting some short-term weakness in the NZD over the next few weeks or so?

[Silverlight]

Closed out my last third of my position today 6995 today.

It may move all the way to 6900, but I will sit on the sidelines and wait. If it does hit 6900 I may look to take a very small long position.

[Pumice]

Closed out my last third of my position today 6995 today.

It may move all the way to 6900, but I will sit on the sidelines and wait. If it does hit 6900 I may look to take a very small long position.

NZD Hit hard by 4Q employment data: 6.5% to 7.3% Unemployment rate Vs an expected 6.8%

Good time to short? Fundamentals might be catching up....

[Silverlight]

I am still fundametally bullish on the NZD/ USD longer term as per my post on the 15/01. I think we will revisit 80 by year end.

However I went short at 74, and closed the last of my position today, after that announcement, it moved 100 pips on the increase in unemployment, so nice gain to add to the pips I had already take off the table at 73 & 71.

Technically it could go lower, if may even go as far as 65 if the markets get really volatile, but most people who trade on fundamentals on a yearly basis go broke, as markets can remain irrational to fundamentals longer than most can remain solvent.

[Pumice]

I am still fundametally bullish on the NZD/ USD longer term as per my post on the 15/01. I think we will revisit 80 by year end.

However I went short at 74, and closed the last of my position today, after that announcement, it moved 100 pips on the increase in unemployment, so nice gain to add to the pips I had already take off the table at 73 & 71.

Technically it could go lower, if may even go as far as 65 if the markets get really volatile, but most people who trade on fundamentals on a yearly basis go broke, as markets can remain irrational to fundamentals longer than most can remain solvent.

At what point would you be bearish on the NZD? Personally I am short the NZD but I do agree with your coment "most people who trade on fundamentals on a yearly basis go broke, as markets can remain irrational to fundamentals longer than most can remain solvent."

[Hoop]

At what point would you be bearish on the NZD? Personally I am short the NZD but I do agree with your coment "most people who trade on fundamentals on a yearly basis go broke, as markets can remain irrational to fundamentals longer than most can remain solvent."

TA.. showing NZ$/US$ at a critical point...
Bouncing on its 68.5c support line which is also the old Fib 61.8% retracement line.

80c by October 2010 would seem a big ask if the 68.5 support breaks


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/nzdusd_fx02feb95_to_06022010-1.png

[peat]

pretty strong move up on the kiwi since 1 AM last night shown here in hourly candles. Although I have a lot of study to do (but no more day job - yay) I am going to post several times in this thread today showing different thoughts and perspectives. It would be good to encourage others to do the same... All thoughts crazy and otherwise welcome

[peat]

Here again in the hourly picture I see the Kiwi through the harmonic patterns of a gartley and a butterfly - yes I could post this in the other thread, its always such a tough decision :scared:.
Firstly on the left there was the gartley where there was a 61% retracement with a bounce from there and then a 76% retracement with the rise from there being 120 pips. Fibs are not shown but trust me they are spot on. So it performed as might be expected.

Then to the right and still playing out is a butterfly pattern encompassing the gartley. Here we see a 76% retracement (a bit less actually) down to the marked A point at 7030 followed by a rise to 7080 and then the fall down to 6966 which was the maximum allowable in a butterfly at 162%. Then this really strong rally overnight going straight back to the 7060 area which is now the support/resistance being just above the A point and according to the theory the trigger point for a long.

[Pumice]

I'm staying short, I see it bouncing off the 100 day SMA. and still within a channel.
But it is struggling with the 200 day SMA.

[peat]

the 7060 area which is now the support/resistance being just above the A point and according to the theory the trigger point for a long.
bought some more in the dip at 7020 closing that now at 7120 .... technically the butterfly has almost played out at this region. but the big wins come from holding out for some more....

[peat]

looked like some good opportunities to buy in the dips today.

[bung5]

You guys have a 1 year outlook for USD?

[Silverlight]

Pumice that looks like a great "Bull flag" in your chart from 7 April.

May be looking for a breakout above the top downtend line?

[peat]

yeh exactly silverlight.... it seems as though its heading for his upper trendline as well. i've been playing the long side, but taking profits when they're there and then having another go after the falls....

[Pumice]

I cant say I'm convinced, I'm still looking for the downside. However I have unrealised losses that a close to being stoped out. So I may be convinced soon.

[Silverlight]

Bull flag break out?

[Pumice]

Certainly appears that way. Could be a bit over bought, but it looks like people love the Kiwi!!

[peat]

7210 was the necessary support zone and it would appear to have failed.... so 71 is target now.

[arco]

.

Managed to nail this one on the blog yesterday for max of +109 pips

4/5. Nzd.Usd #47 – Short term looks slightly bearish on break of Bear Flag (1H chart) with potential for test of Chikou 7241

[loofa]

.

Managed to nail this one on the blog yesterday for max of +209 pips

4/5. Nzd.Usd #47 – Short term looks slightly bearish on break of Bear Flag (1H chart) with potential for test of Chikou 7241

What was the range of the 209 pips? I can see a high of 7320 and a low of 7187

[arco]

Hi Loofa.
My apologies, that was my typo - should be 109 - maximum now +150 pips (I allow 6 for spread)

[whatsup]

Holly H@ll, today with the good news re Bollard look at the $ ,, UP .01 sofat today , 11.00 ap, employment news looks like its driving the rise.

[peat]

7210 was the necessary support zone and it would appear to have failed.... so 71 is target now.
I had tp at 7115
who would've thought it would go anywhere near my 71 after stats y'day , in fact I took the opportunity to add {short}at 7250 so yeh.... :+)

[Dr_Who]

I had tp at 7115
who would've thought it would go anywhere near my 71 after stats y'day , in fact I took the opportunity to add at 7250 so yeh.... :+)

Any reason to go long NZD? I may follow you and go long NZD.

[peat]

just to clarify Dr I was short , and am now out.
Now, I see resistance at around the 72 level, and might consider going long above that but would wait for a signal and could end up going either way
Current price 7137

[peat]

definite resistance just above 72

[peat]

but as I said if 72 is broken then its up and I will suggest to the recent high of 7325 , so I'm long again from 7213

[Dr_Who]

NZD strong on EU bailout.

I should have followed my instincts and bought it. As usual, I am not a forex trader and dont have the trading nerves.

[peat]

ah you're probably glad you didnt now huh Dr - not looking so good now... there was a max of +70 though.

[Pumice]

What’s the consensus now? Looks to be all downhill from here.

[Dr_Who]

ah you're probably glad you didnt now huh Dr - not looking so good now... there was a max of +70 though.

Yeah mate. I am never very good at forex, hence I dont trade it. My only exposure is having cash sitting in overseas dollar or overseas stocks.

It is looking like the NZD will fall further if overseas market continue to fall?

[arco]

.
Just looking at my post from 9th Dec and NZD is quite close at my chart point

http://i45.tinypic.com/287hzs1.jpg

[brettdale]

I sure hope it doesnt keep dropping and gets below 60.

Anything above 66, I will be happy.

[Pumice]

I hope it drops like a stone!

[peat]

a pumice stone will float?

[Pumice]

a pumice stone will float?

Haha Touché

[Dr_Who]

Hey Peat. I am thinking of going long AUD/USD. Whats your views?

[peat]

wrong thread! hahah
well yeh maybe and obviously if you'd done it when you posted you'd be in the black now.
however it depends on time frames... equally it will make a good short again at some stage .

[Pumice]

Interesting article on DailyFX looking at the comparison of 2010 to the 87 and 29 crash of the AUD/USD.....
Might be drawing along bow on this one, but worth a read.
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2010-05-27-2239-Equities_and_AUDUSD_on_Paths.html

[shambles]

For anyone that's interested, my friends run a currency strategy / report company.
You can find their daily and weekly reports ( free ) here http://www.fxmarketreport.com
They're pretty good at answering questions on FB too. http://www.facebook.com/pages/FX-Market-Report/346663595351?ref=ts
Certainly worth checking out if you are making currency plays.
Cheers.. Shambles

[peat]

I had some fun trading both ways last night with two trades long and then closed and then two trades short and then closed. I did sleep too!!

[Pumice]

I had some fun trading both ways last night with two trades long and then closed and then two trades short and then closed. I did sleep too!!

Thats brave!
What sort of indicators do you use to set up trades in that timeframe?

[peat]

seat of the pants gut feel with micro wave counts - in that one there I saw a bit of a diagonal triangle and then a one-two pattern
I look for formations that give me a low risk entry point... and I'm not afraid to get it wrong as I do often.
I've been carrying on with it today with about another +70 net pips over half a dozen trades.
But yeh theres no clearly defined strategy so I guess that makes it vulnerable to a string of failures as well. Keep the trades small so I can sustain quite a few losses before it hurts. Obviously that keeps profits small as well but it keeps me in the game which is what I want.
But I have my financial advisor exams starting on Saturday so I really should be focussing elsewhere!

[Pumice]

I'm not game enough to do large trades. I do alright on the 5min, but only make enough to cover a few days interst costs on my shorts.
Still in for the long hall.
That bull flag you spotted way back turned into a false break by the looks.

Anyway what are your thought on the NZD for the next week/month or so?

[peat]

Yeh that flag looked good but was a sucker alright.... I tend to think that we've probably seen most (but not all just yet ) of this phase of USD strength (NZD weakness) and so sooooooon we'll see some return to strength or at least consolidation for Kiwi and Aussi $. But theres no evidence of it happening just yet.... and it is still better to short the rallies. I'm pretty bearish on the equity markets - with permanent short positions on S+P500 (but they too are oversold and will need to have a corrective rally soon) and lets be real here NZD is a proxy for risk so it goes where the S+P/DOW goes.

[Pumice]

Very true.
I agree the Kiwi is certainly oversold, but with the way Europe is going, it could go a lot lower. Especially with Gold booming to $1250 and the DOW well under 9800. Things don’t look particularly optimistic.

I’m standing aside from equities for awhile. Holding BP stock has been nasty.
Hopefully a fall in the NZD will help.

[Dr_Who]

I just went long NZDUSD today on China export numbers that is very positive.

Only playing with a very small amount, cos I am not doing much on the equities market.