KFL - discount to diluted NAV

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/432510

Kingfish Limited (Kingfish) wishes to advise all Kingfish Warrant Holders (KFLWH) that the final exercise price of the Kingfish warrants is $1.26.

Further details regarding the Kingfish warrants, which have an exercise date of 26 July 2024, will be emailed/mailed to all warrant holders before the end of June 2024.

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/432510

Kingfish Limited (Kingfish) wishes to advise all Kingfish Warrant Holders (KFLWH) that the final exercise price of the Kingfish warrants is $1.26.

Further details regarding the Kingfish warrants, which have an exercise date of 26 July 2024, will be emailed/mailed to all warrant holders before the end of June 2024.

Good luck with that ..lol ....Unless friends of fund bring SP close to current NAV of 1.3320 !!!

[Sideshow Bob]

Good luck with that ..lol ....Unless friends of fund bring SP close to current NAV of 1.3320 !!!

Regardless, there is always some exercised.......:mellow:

[mike2020]

5 weeks. I still think it can go either way.

[alokdhir]

5 weeks. I still think it can go either way.

easily possible ...discount is too high at the moment ...they can officially close it till 6% that takes to 94% of 1.3320 to 1.25 then add few cents for some portfolio appreciation in next 6 weeks ...SP can be $ 1.28 and NAV 1.36 ...very feasible ...

[Sideshow Bob]

For anyone who can't decide whether to buy at $1.20 (currently) or exercise warrants at $1.26.....

But there will always be some!!

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/432781

The final exercise price of the Kingfish warrants is $1.26.

Please note the share price is very close to the exercise price. Any warrant holders needing help in deciding what to do, should speak with their financial adviser or broker.

As the KFLWH warrant exercise date of 26 July 2024 is approaching, you have the following choices with your warrants:
• You can elect to exercise some or all of your warrants on 26 July 2024 at the final Exercise Price of $1.26.
• You can seek to sell or transfer your warrants on the NZX Main Board until 5.00pm 24 July 2024.
• You can elect to not exercise any warrants and allow the warrants to lapse.Any warrants not exercised by 5.00pm on 26 July 2024 will lapse and all rights relating to the warrants will expire.

What should I do if I wish to exercise my warrants?If you wish to exercise some or all of your warrants, you should:
• visit www.warrants.co.nz/kingfish (http://www.warrants.co.nz/kingfish) and complete the online Exercise Form;
• pay the Exercise Price required to be paid in accordance with the payment instructions set out below.Payment• Payment must be made in full by paying the Exercise Price of $1.26 per warrant that you wish to exercise.
• Payment is to be made in New Zealand dollars by direct credit.
• If there is a discrepancy between the amount of application monies and the number of warrants being exercised as indicated on your online Exercise Form, Kingfish will treat the application as being for the number of warrants being exercised as the application monies will pay for.

Direct credit Payment is to be made by direct credit to the Kingfish Limited Warrant Account. Please include your CSN number as the deposit reference.Payment should be made to the following account:Bank: ASB BANK LIMITED BRANCH: CORPORATE BANKINGAccount Number: 12-3244-0000035-01

[alokdhir]

DRP of $ 1.1689 was much beyond initial expectations ...DRP holders are nailing it these days ...always in the money . Easy to hammer price in 5 days in low liquidity to. get very favourable DRP strike...works great for me and other DRP subscribers ...also helps fund increase their AUM ...win win ...cash dividend people maybe. the losers here I reckon !!

[winner69]

Hey alokdhir, how many zillions do Kingfish need for IFT cap raise

Got enough cash or need to sell other stuff?

[Toddy]

Hey alokdhir, how many zillions do Kingfish need for IFT cap raise

Got enough cash or need to sell other stuff?

Good point. How many investors would have factored this into the KFL equation.

I was surprised.

[winner69]

Good point. How many investors would have factored this into the KFL equation.

I was surprised.

Rough guess only need about $9m

Easy peasy


But increase that 17% of fund won’t it ….might do some rebalancing

[alokdhir]

Hey alokdhir, how many zillions do Kingfish need for IFT cap raise

Got enough cash or need to sell other stuff?

I will let the fund managers take the call. ...after all they charge management fees ...why we need bother how they. manage as. long. as they manage well !!

[mike2020]

I had a quick look, they might have sold ATM to fund it. ;) Later when it rebounds like a coiled spring they can swap back and finally show us what an active fund manager does!

All speculation with a healthy dose of sarcasm.

[alokdhir]

With IFT / FPH going great guns ....KFL is becoming more and more undervalued ....NAV rising SP dropping ...wow

[Rawz]

With IFT / FPH going great guns ....KFL is becoming more and more undervalued ....NAV rising SP dropping ...wow
It’s like buying free money aye

[alokdhir]

It’s like buying free money aye

Its happening mostly due to DRP holders selling and cashing their dividends ...they are still in the money as DRP strike was $ 1.1689 ...opportunity for new investors

[Grimy]

I bought a few off them today. But it was only worth a couple of cents to them.

[Toddy]

It’s like buying free money aye


Its like their formula does not work investing in NZX stocks. Because to exit would tank the individual stock share prices back to the current head share price. Maybe this is a factor.

[Not too Flash]

NAV hanging in there ....

[ronaldson]

NAV hanging in there ....

Yes, NAV at $1.31 and the VWAP on-market today is barely over $1.18. Judging by the daily notices from KFL they are the main buyer currently and are likely buying again today to underpin even that modest price.

The market is very downbeat at the moment. One could suggest KFL at this discount is one of the bargains on offer, but like some other NZX listings there are is not much competition currently.

[alokdhir]

KFL will be giving about 2.8 million shares under DRP next week ...instead of issuing new @ 1.31 they are preferring to buy on market @ 1.18 ...saving company thus holders money by reducing the dilution from 1.31 to 1.1689 vs 1.18 to 1.1689 ....they will be giving away this recently acquired treasury shares as DRP instead of issuing new !! Works out favourable for holders and not so for fund ...but its small change overall

[777]

At 1.17 discount now to NTA of 1.3221 is 11.5%.

Still a reasonably big seller of the stock in the picture.

[Perky]

Yeah..I’ve been adding a few at $1.17…my buying strategy is to offer the DRP price 1.1689 + small margin..lol

Thank you to sellers.

Maybe Carmen still cashing up…seems plenty on offer.

[alokdhir]

With latest nav at 1.3221 ...then company can officially take to 1.243 ...little help from portfolio they can try to salvage their warrants issue ...not exactly impossible

[Not too Flash]

Interesting purchase of warrants .....

[ronaldson]

Looks like a buy order for 2m warrants at $0.001 has now part traded. IMO last chance for substantial holders to exit. You need to sell 29900 warrants thou just to cover Jarden's brokerage fee.

[alokdhir]

Either the buyer is a big speculator or he knows something which can make his $ 2000 into $ 20000 ? Not easy to understand why waste $ 2000 but he must be having a plan or money to throw ....:p

[Rawz]

Either the buyer is a big speculator or he knows something which can make his $ 2000 into $ 20000 ? Not easy to understand why waste $ 2000 but he must be having a plan or money to throw ....:p

maybe just wants 2m head shares and thought this is the quickest/easiest way to get them

[alokdhir]

maybe just wants 2m head shares and thought this is the quickest/easiest way to get them

Cost of convenience = $220,000 ...sounds even more astounding then $ 2000 gamble !!!!

[Sideshow Bob]

Cost of convenience = $220,000 ...sounds even more astounding then $ 2000 gamble !!!!

Probably better (and more rewarding) to bet on KFL than the Wahs......;)

[777]

May be they just wanted to be top of the holders list in the Annual Report.

[alokdhir]

If one compare from largest holdings of 2023 and 2024 Annual reports ....only one account via ASB Nominees holdings have come down substantially ...appox 5 million shares less

I assume its of Carmel Fisher ...holdings down from 9.4 million to 4.8 million ...still some left to dispose if aim is to fully cash out !!!

[alokdhir]

The way KFL is buying back soon they will have. more shares then most ....their name can come in Top 20 holdings list soon ...lol :p

But Good on them ...its best. value with 11.2% discount to NAV ...today's shud be around $ 1.3150 !!!

[Rawz]

The way KFL is buying back soon they will have. more shares then most ....their name can come in Top 20 holdings list soon ...lol :p

But Good on them ...its best. value with 11.2% discount to NAV ...today's shud be around $ 1.3150 !!!

They should buy as many of their shares as they can while the underlying holdings are near their lows and there is a huge discount to NAV.

Like buy enough for 5 years dividend reinvestment program. That way they won’t need to sell holdings on the way back up the cycle

[ronaldson]

The 2m buy order for warrants at $0.001 has now been completely mopped up. Allowed a few larger holders to exit for a little more than the cost of brokerage, but a circumstance that will not be seen again IMO.

I still can't figure out why the buyer would literally throw money away, but then again the next opportunity comes when the warrants are available to be exercised. We will all be able to see how many are taken up on that occasion and wonder at the mindlessness of it. I suppose the only possible saving grace would be that taking up warrants at $1.26 will still be acquisition at less than NTA. Certainly the KFL managers are busy in the market every day buying at the current on-market price, which surely is a better return on investment than adding to any of the current holdings that make the KFL "basket".

[Ferg]

I still can't figure out why the buyer would literally throw money away, but then again the next opportunity comes when the warrants are available to be exercised. We will all be able to see how many are taken up on that occasion and wonder at the mindlessness of it.
I have seen this sort of behaviour previously with posters on reddit's 'wall street bets' where punters throw money at short dated options that are out of the money. It's gambling in the hope of outrageous returns with a small % chance of success. I don't think you will see the warrants exercised - the punter is hoping for a miracle. That said there have been some unusual price movements in a couple of investments in the KFL basket lately but I suspect it is not enough to have a meaningful impact on KFL NTA.

[winner69]

Market likes sound of Orr’s speech today

Lower rates and NZD giving FPH and MFT a big boost

Go Kingfish

[alokdhir]

Market likes sound of Orr’s speech today

Lower rates and NZD giving FPH and MFT a big boost

Go Kingfish

Needs more whole hearted encouragement ...NAV is close to $ 1.33 and discount widest we have seen recently ...12 % ...looks like enemies of the fund making sure warrants go dud ...lol ...friends need wake up ...

[tim23]

Needs more whole hearted encouragement ...NAV is close to $ 1.33 and discount widest we have seen recently ...12 % ...looks like enemies of the fund making sure warrants go dud ...lol ...friends need wake up ...
Historically the discount has been around 10% likewise for MLN and BRM but oddly for a window of euphoria they traded at a premium- back to normal now.

[alokdhir]

Historically the discount has been around 10% likewise for MLN and BRM but oddly for a window of euphoria they traded at a premium- back to normal now.

https://kingfish.co.nz/documents/nav/mktupdte-kfl-kfl-nav-as-at-22120---16978-315660.pdf

Just a random day before covid ...historically it's around 2-3 % and not 10% ....coming from a holder since 2010 ....yes premium was one off and wont happen again ....imho

PS : Buybacks levels was 10% then 8% and now 6% ...slowly slowly they trying to bring SP closer to NAV

[mike2020]

My question is how much more can they afford to buy? At such a discount is it viable for them to buy the fund and sell head shares proportionally?
I find it odd SUM and RYM reacted so quickly.

[tim23]

https://kingfish.co.nz/documents/nav/mktupdte-kfl-kfl-nav-as-at-22120---16978-315660.pdf

Just a random day before covid ...historically it's around 2-3 % and not 10% ....coming from a holder since 2010 ....yes premium was one off and wont happen again ....imho

PS : Buybacks levels was 10% then 8% and now 6% ...slowly slowly they trying to bring SP closer to NAV

My memory goes well before that!

[SPC]

" slowly they trying to bring SP closer to NAV"..
Hell well that's really working isn't it..😮.
They can't do a damn thing to influence the market price by buying back piddling amounts of shares.
If they don't run out of cash at some point.
I expect there's some head share sales behind the scenes funding the money go-round.
But the broader issue is how many highly paid Fisher Funds investment analysts does it take to just keep buying more MFT/FPH/IFT plus a couple more?. This strategy warrants a fee scale closer to index funds, not expensive FM fees.
I'm glad the warrant issue failed because the fund manager is not spreading the risk much, all we get is more of the favourite top five or so. This works until something goes bung. And it has. Not too long ago ATM was the golden goose with a massive holding. Then boom up it went in smoke. I'd like the Board - that's the Board who are funded by US holders and not Fishers, to cease the rollover/rollover/rollover relationship with Fishers and seriously look elsewhere for a new FM. Milford have an excellent reputation?. Let's ask for the executive summary of the 'five year reviews' and see how much effort was really made to look around the market for alternatives. Seriously...I mean did the Board really look?
Edit: infact I will even go further and suggest Kingfish internalize it's fund management (like most of the listed property players have), after all how hard can it be to keep buying the same stocks?. No expensive external costs and the same skill set on performance based salaries rather than $uperstar stock picker rates.
Think about it ...yes you Board.

Disc. Big holder (and occasional seller when it makes sense because they only get cheaper if you save your divy cash and wait long enough...). It's just another stock...

[ronaldson]

One interesting thing I learned at the meeting, speaking to a Board member privately after, is that at each Board meeting one regular agenda item is the formal review/consideration of the comments on this thread (and now the KFLWH thread) made over the intervening period since their last meeting. The Order Paper contains a full schedule/print out of the actual posts.

Bet you didn't know that. So the Board is cognisant of what we are saying on a basis other than members perhaps individually reviewing the threads in their personal capacity.

This begs the question how many other Boards of NZX listed entities take posts with regard to their entity into account on a formal basis in their deliberations. Would be good to know.

And if that is the case it would be wise to tone down/reduce the number of posts between members of this forum that are nothing more than gratuitously slagging off another member and keep to more salient tidbits/comments of direct relevance to the particular thread.

SPC - See this post above, directly after the 2023 ASM. No reason to believe that modus operandi has changed in the intervening period so your voice will indeed be heard (even if not acted upon).

[SPC]

Yes I do know that😉
And just by the by I don't personally think that Board members reading social media posts is necessarily indicative of a finger on the pulse of the business. It perhaps tells me something else. Why not a shareholder survey ...if that were the reasons.
Do the Board of MFT/IFT/FPH operate in this way?...maybe they might but actually I reckon they're too busy doing other things.
I've been a holder in KFL and it's listed siblings for most of their lives (two since IPO).
I said repeatedly in the past that you can't treat these like listed funds. You'll end up eating your own savings if you're too passive. They are shares...treat them as you would any other listed security. And put yourself in charge. Don't sit in the back seat asking are we there yet...
You'll need to be in the pilot's seat accelerating (and braking) when necessary to avoid potholes on the road.

[Sideshow Bob]

SPC - See this post above, directly after the 2023 ASM. No reason to believe that modus operandi has changed in the intervening period so your voice will indeed be heard (even if not acted upon).

How many people actually roll up to the AGM?? Must be boring as batsh1t as far as AGM's go.

I mean they'll managing some investments/holdings, but not like they are actually doing anything??

[winner69]

SPC - See this post above, directly after the 2023 ASM. No reason to believe that modus operandi has changed in the intervening period so your voice will indeed be heard (even if not acted upon).

Hey Ron, if Kingfish directors do read what is posted here then SPC deserves to have his say and they should listen.

[winner69]

Suppose part of Kingfish managers return is tied to TSR, that being Total Shareholder Return

Share buybacks would be included in that calc ….TSR = dividends + share buy backs + capital gain/loss

Share buybacks seem a good lurk then.

[alokdhir]

Suppose part of Kingfish managers return is tied to TSR, that being Total Shareholder Return

Share buybacks would be included in that calc ….TSR = dividends + share buy backs + capital gain/loss

Share buybacks seem a good lurk then.

Winner mate ....No fund manager howsoever great can manufacture returns if concerned market doesnt perform ...One cant suddenly start complaining about KFL returns while watching US markets performance ...KFL is mandated to be invested in " GOOD QUALITY " liquid and long term growing companies listed on NZX ...they do their job pretty well within these limitations which is validated by their last 20 years performance or outperformance ...if someone has problem with their stock selection etc then he can always exit ...KFL has a purpose for regular income yearners and safe growth seekers while staying on NZX ...one can always have mix of NZ assets and US ...US is where more growth companies are ...but still its called Magnificent 7 these days ...like Top 5 of KFL ...nothing wrong in having concentrated portfolios ...Buffet has 47% in Apple ...no complains but only accolades and followers like SR !!!

[ronaldson]

How many people actually roll up to the AGM?? Must be boring as batsh1t as far as AGM's go.

I mean they'll managing some investments/holdings, but not like they are actually doing anything??

Boring - possibly. How many turn up - quite a few. Could be because they invariably provide one of the most decent spreads afterwards of any NZX listed entity.

[mike2020]

I will second that. They offer decent refreshments and plenty of enthusiasm.

[Perky]

Makes sense they provide a good feed…they are a PIE fund right?

Would be a bit sad if you had to bring a plate to a pie fund meeting.

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/434344

Cant get any better then this for opportunity ...but ....

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/434344

Cant get any better then this for opportunity ...but ....

Spot on mate …….in buzz words an intergenerational buying opportunity …….capital gains as RB has pivoted ….gains to come from increased NAV and a big market rerate

Chart shows why …cool eh

[alokdhir]

Spot on mate …….in buzz words an intergenerational buying opportunity …….capital gains as RB has pivoted ….gains to come from increased NAV and a big market rerate

Chart shows why …cool eh

Great Chart shows what path it will follow ahead ....Today it has done its bit NAV closed over $ 1.35 !!!

[alokdhir]

Today its well over $ 1.36 ...if they work hard can salvage some warrants ...MFT and RYM helping big time :t_up:

[Toddy]

Today its well over $ 1.36 ...if they work hard can salvage some warrants ...MFT and RYM helping big time :t_up:

But I thought you said that you didn't want any warrants to be exercised?

[alokdhir]

But I thought you said that you didn't want any warrants to be exercised?

I never said that mate ...I said if the exercise price is way lower then NAV then they will end up diluting NAV for the whole lot ...like what will happen to BRM ...here for them to be exercised SP need go over $ 1.26+ ...me happy with that more then not ...hopefully it makes it more clear

[Toddy]

I never said that mate ...I said if the exercise price is way lower then NAV then they will end up diluting NAV for the whole lot ...like what will happen to BRM ...here for them to be exercised SP need go over $ 1.26+ ...me happy with that more then not ...hopefully it makes it more clear

That logic only makes sense if you only hold head shares.

The portfolio managers issue these warrants for a reason. They were just unfortunate with their timing when issuing the KFL warrants.

[alokdhir]

That logic only makes sense if you only hold head shares.

The portfolio managers issue these warrants for a reason. They were just unfortunate with their timing when issuing the KFL warrants.

Almost all long term holders have already encashed their " free " warrants as it was almost certain that they will go bust come July ...

Also u need study why warrants are given to original head share holders for " free " ...Free = dilution of their head share NAV if exercised ....

[Toddy]

Almost all long term holders have already encashed their " free " warrants as it was almost certain that they will go bust come July ...

Also u need study why warrants are given to original head share holders for " free " ...Free = dilution of their head share NAV if exercised ....

Im not prevy to that information. So didn't know almost all holders had exited.

[alokdhir]

Im not prevy to that information. So didn't know almost all holders had exited.

Most I know here have done including me ...777 did very well around 3.5 cents ...me around 2.2 cents ...still a bonus :t_up:

[Mrbuyit]

I've got 10,000 kflwh, will swap for 6 pack of beer or what have you..

[alokdhir]

Mr B was a big buyer @ $ 1.19 today as per his post on other channel ...he finds discount too lucrative to miss ...fully agree with his sharp eye to see an opportunity and act on it fast !!

[alokdhir]

9 Trading days for exercise time ...next Friday ...technically KFL itself can support SP till 94% of current NAV $ 1.35+ ...ie $ 1.27 ...will they ? If they do they wont be hurting holders too much as buying something worth 1.35 for 1.24 average is not a bad deal ...in the process they get 25% warrants exercised and renew their cash reserves ...win win ...keep in mind they are allowed 20% leverage ...can use that to generate short term cash ...maybe I am expecting too much from conservative fund ...watched " Dumb Money " recently ...so maybe thats influencing my thoughts ...:D

[alokdhir]

Tmrw when NAV comes $ 1.37 + then why keep selling at 1.20 today ? Unless seller has some other purpose ...rates turning / market turning but still relentless selling well below NAV ...not easy to understand ...but maybe thats markets at its best or worst ....

[winner69]

Média got excited yesterday …..NZX50 reached 17 month high

KFL down about 17 month low

Opportunity abounds methinks

[alokdhir]

Média got excited yesterday …..NZX50 reached 17 month high

KFL down about 17 month low

Opportunity abounds methinks

They cant wake up investors ...they can only increase their NAV which they doing very well ...its above $ 1.37 at present !!!

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/434719

$ 1.3720 ....SP at 12% discount ....no dilution nearby ...:eek2:

[alokdhir]

" Wow, 12% discount to NTA at $1.21!

This is such a great opportunity I feel like Oliver Twist with my begging bowl held out at $1.21, please Sir, can I have some more? "

Mr B on other channel doing his bit to mop them at such attractive discount ...KFL is like go back in time for the ones who missed this rally so far ...:eek2:

[kiora]

Can it be bettered ?

I would hope so

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976523403/passive-approach-pays-off-for-simplicity-s-kiwisaver-investors.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+20 +July+2024

[Toddy]

It looks like the Fund managers have had enough and ramped up the buying of discounted shares in both KFL and BRM.

It's good to see that they are finally using this as a value strategy. So hopefully they can mop up discounted shares on offer over time and bring the share price closer to the NAV.

[alokdhir]

@ 6% discount to NAV which is trigger of buybacks ....KFL SP shud be over $ 1.29 ...current NAV $ 1.37+

They already have bought over 1.2 Mil ...looks very promising ahead for portfolio so very confident SP will follow when dividends start growing

After the exercise date is gone ...I reckon SP will get more buoyant ...:cool:

[Sideshow Bob]

How many warrants do you reckon will still be exercised?? :mellow:

[Ferg]

So there was no appetite from the big boys after digesting multiple capital raises....did they take in turns to be "it" in pushing the price down? Odds on this goes over the exercise price after the exercise date.....yeah it's a level playing field as evidenced by other recent activities pre-announcements. /tui

[alokdhir]

So there was no appetite from the big boys after digesting multiple capital raises....did they take in turns to be "it" in pushing the price down? Odds on this goes over the exercise price after the exercise date.....yeah it's a level playing field as evidenced by other recent activities pre-announcements. /tui

I think U know too much about markets and its ways ...lol

[Ferg]

I think U know too much about markets and its ways ...lol

Haha - call me cynical but so much for "Mr Market" being efficient.......

[alokdhir]

Haha - call me cynical but so much for "Mr Market" being efficient.......

Not cynical ....realistic ...NZX is too small and these are not even penny stocks by world standards ...so very easy to manipulate ...key for us lesser mortals is to try to be on right side ...thats also a skill to know the eventual winners and align with them at opportune time :p

[ronaldson]

Could be that the recent buyer of 2m warrants at $0.001 might exercise them given the NAV for the head shares.

You couldn't buy that many KFL on market now without moving the dial further upwards. And since reselling the warrants was never realistic the motivation of the purchaser must always have been to acquire the right to exercise.

[alokdhir]

Could be that the recent buyer of 2m warrants at $0.001 might exercise them given the NAV for the head shares.

You couldn't buy that many KFL on market now without moving the dial further upwards. And since reselling the warrants was never realistic the motivation of the purchaser must always have been to acquire the right to exercise.

Since he bought that 2 mil warrants ....almost 3 mil KFL traded around average 1.20 ...he wud have got them easily and saved lots ...if he intended to exercise them then that was not a smart way to go ...I reckon that was not the intention ...

Yes some warrants ...maybe as high as 10% may get exercised ...$ 1.26 is much below $ 1.38+ present NAV ...so still good

[kiora]

OR could the discount be due to the 6.55% CAGR since 2004?
Surely not?

https://portfolio.sharesight.com/portfolios/316437?consolidated=false#/share_search?consolidated=false&portfolio_id=316437

[alokdhir]

OR could the discount be due to the 6.55% CAGR since 2004?
Surely not?

https://portfolio.sharesight.com/portfolios/316437?consolidated=false#/share_search?consolidated=false&portfolio_id=316437

Mate u need see it with reference to a bench mark ie NZX50 ...which since 2004 has CAGR of ?? They said recently that they outperformed index over 20 years period ...surely u dont expect a FUND which is inherently much safer then single stocks to outperform single stock's CAGR ...MFT has 20% plus and they had it as top 5 all this while ...

[bull....]

alokdhir what your forecast nav this week

[kiora]

Out of interest then what is CAGR of NZX50 over last 20 yrs?

[alokdhir]

Out of interest then what is CAGR of NZX50 over last 20 yrs?

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/428684/attachment/415656/428684-415656.pdf

[alokdhir]

alokdhir what your forecast nav this week

Will let u know my estimate on Wednesday evening ...at present its just above $ 1.38

[alokdhir]

KFL is a stock then why it cant be included in the index ? With ARV and WHS exit on horizon ...need two candidates for NZX50 inclusion ahead ...TWR is less market cap then KFL ...so shouldn't be KFL then TWR ...unless KFL is not a stock ???

[Ferg]

KFL is a stock then why it cant be included in the index ? With ARV and WHS exit on horizon ...need two candidates for NZX50 inclusion ahead ...TWR is less market cap then KFL ...so shouldn't be KFL then TWR ...unless KFL is not a stock ???

From page 6 of the NZ Index Methodology:

Eligible Securities.
All common and equity preferred stocks (which are not of a fixed income nature) are eligible for inclusion in the indices. Hybrid stocks such as convertible stocks, bonds, warrants, and preferred stocks that provide a guaranteed fixed return are not eligible. Closed and open-ended equity funds that invest in a portfolio of securities are not eligible for index inclusion (e.g. ETFs, listed investment companies, etc.).{snip}

[kiora]

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/428684/attachment/415656/428684-415656.pdf

"3- gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection, before expenses, fees and tax."
OUCH
Annualised since inception returns are for the period 31 March 2004 to 29 February 2024.

Total shareholder return1 of 9.4% per year;
• Adjusted NAV return2 of 9.9% per year; and
• Gross performance return3 of 13.1% per year

[ronaldson]

TSR above includes the net value of converting warrants into shares at warrant expiry date IF they were in the money. Regular warrant issues are a feature of KFL ownership that represent further value and need to be accounted when comparing against performance of the NZ50 index.

And remember that over a 20 year comparison period the Index has been frequently adjusted by removals and inclusions according to the criteria under which it is constructed, which "improves" the outcome.

So KFL is a proven investment over time, especially when performance can only be achieved via NZX listings rather than overseas investments or unlisted/infrastructure opportunities. And you are effectively getting the benefit of diversification when you buy and hold.

[alokdhir]

"3- gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection, before expenses, fees and tax."
OUCH
Annualised since inception returns are for the period 31 March 2004 to 29 February 2024.

Total shareholder return1 of 9.4% per year;
• Adjusted NAV return2 of 9.9% per year; and
• Gross performance return3 of 13.1% per year

I know u are doing ouch to 13.1% vs 9.9 % but as a LT holder I am saying well done to 9.9% vs 7.9% of NZX50 ...

Also note that they have considerably reduced performance fees as the corpus grew over the years due to successful conversion of warrants

IFT with its single stock risk gave 11.85% ...while KFL with relative safety of fund plus many further options of regular income stream / tax efficient / warrants play etc gave 9.9% ...so its not a bad buy and forget investment especially at huge discount to NAV ...here one can safely expect that this 12% gap will close ahead when rates drop considerably ...thus adding another capital appreciation aspect

[alokdhir]

From page 6 of the NZ Index Methodology:

Thanks Ferg ...I knew there is some rule against it otherwise KFL was ahead of TRA even ...now its confirmed that funds are not even considered

[alokdhir]

Some are really investing a lot of money trying to keep SP down ...NAV hitting well over $ 1.395 at present but interested parties wont let it cross $ 1.24 ...Good on them :cool:

[cyclist]

Just a hunch, but it wouldn't surprise me if someone mops up a large bunch of warrants on the Friday close, exercises them, and then lets the head shares start to run.

[winner69]

Just a hunch, but it wouldn't surprise me if someone mops up a large bunch of warrants on the Friday close, exercises them, and then lets the head shares start to run.

Warrants stop trading in an hour

[alokdhir]

Warrants stop trading in an hour

Maybe they already have 2 mil bought at 0.001 cent to limit their losses ...got my drift ...:D

[cyclist]

Warrants stop trading in an hour

Opps. Thanks.

[alokdhir]

alokdhir what your forecast nav this week

As promised mate, expected NAV tmrw is close to $ 1.403 :t_up:

[Mackap]

Hi team, I have some warrants. Just want to check details as I'm a bit of a newbie. So warrant trading finished today 24th. I can excise by this Friday 26th July, with excise price of $1.26. So would it be right in saying that the warrants will only have value (worth excising) if head share (currently $1.25) moves to $1.27 or above? Thanks in advance for any clarification.

[alokdhir]

Hi team, I have some warrants. Just want to check details as I'm a bit of a newbie. So warrant trading finished today 24th. I can excise by this Friday 26th July, with excise price of $1.26. So would it be right in saying that the warrants will only have value (worth excising) if head share (currently $1.25) moves to $1.27 or above? Thanks in advance for any clarification.

U have two options mate ...exercise them via KFL @ $ 1.26 directly and save the broker charges or BUY on the market via a Broker for current SP $ 1.25 ...not much difference so no need think too much ...which ever suits better . U can also decide to let your warrants lapse that way u dont exercise them and dont have any head shares . BTW current NAV is over $ 1.40+ which will be revealed today afternoon !

[Rawz]

So there was no appetite from the big boys after digesting multiple capital raises....did they take in turns to be "it" in pushing the price down? Odds on this goes over the exercise price after the exercise date.....yeah it's a level playing field as evidenced by other recent activities pre-announcements. /tui


I think U know too much about markets and its ways ...lol

In plain English are you guys saying big holders are pushing the SP down so that warrants fail? is this why the discount is so large?

[winner69]

In plain English are you guys saying big holders are pushing the SP down so that warrants fail? is this why the discount is so large?

Maybe it’s those who cleaned up early on at 5c/10c and going to say great call as warrants useless now

[mike2020]

In plain English are you guys saying big holders are pushing the SP down so that warrants fail? is this why the discount is so large?

That makes little sense, why sell to keep the price down only to see it rise post warrant failure? I must be bad at math.

[Rawz]

That makes little sense, why sell to keep the price down only to see it rise post warrant failure? I must be bad at math.

yeah i dont really understand what was being said, but im not as smart as those two lol.

But i can assume maybe some people wouldnt want warrants exercised because of dilution maybe?

[alokdhir]

yeah i dont really understand what was being said, but im not as smart as those two lol.

But i can assume maybe some people wouldnt want warrants exercised because of dilution maybe?

At least its opportunity for smart people to use someone's devious designs to actually get market bluechips 12% lower ...but then they start overthinking why discount too much / fees and what not ...

PS : If u study the full mechanics of warrants then u will know if properly played then they can do no harm to LT holders even when exercised ...and if played smartly or with some luck then they provide free bonus money like this time ...many saw the writing on the wall and sold warrants ...all that money is free bonus as no dilution ahead so no need of any compensation from warrants sale :D

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=alokdhir;1062352]As promised mate, expected NAV tmrw is close to $ 1.403 :t_up:[/QUOTE

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/435076

Here u are $ 1.4047 ...doing great ....outperforming index easily so far

[alokdhir]

KFL so far after 7 months ...

NZX50 ....YTD +6.83 % till yesterday

KFL NAV + 7.38% plus two dividends worth 4% = + 11.38 YTD

[Toddy]

Hindsight is a great thing. The fund managers were just super unlucky with the timing of when these warrants were issued.

Imagine the value if they had say 3 months to run from today.

It's an opportunity lost. But hey, who can predict the timing of the market.

There is always 'next time'.

[alokdhir]

Hindsight is a great thing. The fund managers were just super unlucky with the timing of when these warrants were issued.

Imagine the value if they had say 3 months to run from today.

It's an opportunity lost. But hey, who can predict the timing of the market.

There is always 'next time'.

Fully agree ...another few months it would have sailed easily ....even now it may get some done as it's still good/ great value getting 1.405 stuff for 1.26

[Toddy]

Fully agree ...another few months it would have sailed easily ....even now it may get some done as it's still good/ great value getting 1.405 stuff for 1.26

No doubting that they represent great value. And as interest rates drop the dividend stocks should increase in value.

One has to always weight up the opportunity cost and risks of moving your portfolio around. But if you had 'new' money then it's a good investment and at a discounted entry point.

It will be interesting if the Aussie portfolio warrants (BRM) can get a head of steam up over the next three plus months.

[Mrbuyit]

the warrants will have provided a bit of a psychological anchor to the share price, with plenty of warrants available at dirt cheap prices which we knew landed around the 1.26 price.

I picked up a few this week after selling my ARV, and will let the warrants I had expire un-used, i guess they gave me an insurance that had the SP rocketed i could have topped up by exercising my rights... but would say bravo to those that exited warrants early on.

[bull....]

[QUOTE=alokdhir;1062352]As promised mate, expected NAV tmrw is close to $ 1.403 :t_up:[/QUOTE

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/435076

Here u are $ 1.4047 ...doing great ....outperforming index easily so far

your est was good as usual. i see if head's go to 1.27 by fri , you would be better to exercise warrant at 1.26 as you have till 5pm fri

[Sideshow Bob]

[QUOTE=alokdhir;1062493]

your est was good as usual. i see if head's go to 1.27 by fri , you would be better to exercise warrant at 1.26 as you have till 5pm fri

Or just have bought last week at $1.16 or 1.17......;)

[bull....]

[QUOTE=bull....;1062517]

Or just have bought last week at $1.16 or 1.17......;)

you have done well if you did ( i didnt ) . i was more thinking they might get some warrant money if head shares rise above 1.26 before end of tomorrow

[Grimy]

Have holders received their warrant price & exercise instructions and online form link (dated 14/6/24)?
I had downloaded the info sheet for the warrants and it said they would email/post as soon as they could after the announcement date.
I've heard nothing and have been a holder for a while. Had filled in their form to say send everything by email ages ago as they were posting distribution notices.
I know my allocation and have found the online form (only looked today as knew the closing date was approaching - tomorrow), but no notification directly from KFL either by post or email.
Just hoping that others who are thinking of exercising their warrants have all been notified - or sorted it themselves.

[Mackap]

I'm with sharesies and they make it easy. Just a couple of clicks if wanting to excise warrants.

[SPC]

Gosh fund managers must be shaking their heads at the unfortunate SP rally right on the closing bell for warrants, most of which were probably binned by many as a lost cause.
I've certainly loaded up in recent times sub $1.20 thanks to large holdings on sale putting a ceiling on the SP, curious behaviour considering the nav discount. Who were they?
However somebody/ies obviously wanted the cash out. But thanks from me anyway 👍.
I've posted previously I'm not concerned about the absence of new capital as the ever growing concentration in a handful of top 10 stocks in an ever shrinking NZX becomes a growing risk if something turns sour. Which also strengthens the case for a reviewed fee structure for such a limited portfolio in a minor backwater market.
What else is left to buy?.
Maybe time to stop blowing air into this balloon and tie the knot ?.

[Toddy]

Gosh fund managers must be shaking their heads at the unfortunate SP rally right on the closing bell for warrants, most of which were probably binned by many as a lost cause.
I've certainly loaded up in recent times sub $1.20 thanks to large holdings on sale putting a ceiling on the SP, curious behaviour considering the nav discount. Who were they?
However somebody/ies obviously wanted the cash out. But thanks from me anyway ��.
I've posted previously I'm not concerned about the absence of new capital as the ever growing concentration in a handful of top 10 stocks in an ever shrinking NZX becomes a growing risk if something turns sour. Which also strengthens the case for a reviewed fee structure for such a limited portfolio in a minor backwater market.
What else is left to buy?.
Maybe time to stop blowing air into this balloon and tie the knot ?.

If they tried to unwind the positions the balloon may go 'bang'.

[SPC]

Not suggesting that. Just stop blowing the balloon up. Let the the fiscal gymnastics normalise to operate on a more conventional basis....if we all know what I mean, which some do 😉

[Toddy]

Not suggesting that. Just stop blowing the balloon up. Let the the fiscal gymnastics normalise to operate on a more conventional basis....if we all know what I mean, which some do ��

Just need to hold onto the position until each stock is taken over by international investors one by one.

Keeping it simple.

[Rawz]

KFL market cap only $430m and is invested in 3x $10billion companies 1x $7bill 1x $2bill.

Don’t think it’s much of an issue.

[SPC]

Nobody thought ATM was an issue not too long ago. Until it was.

[Rawz]

MFT going to knock a few cents off the ole NAV

[alokdhir]

MFT going to knock a few cents off the ole NAV

Yesterday's market fall 1.1% ...KFL NAV down 2.1 % ...but kudos to fund managers who reduced MFT position from 14% to 11% in June qtr .

For me fund managers are doing a great job ...but then some are never happy !!:p

[winner69]

Yesterday's market fall 1.1% ...KFL NAV down 2.1 % ...but kudos to fund managers who reduced MFT position from 14% to 11% in June qtr .

For me fund managers are doing a great job ...but then some are never happy !!:p

This is what they said Re Mainfreight ….. We did reduce our position in Mainfreight modestly as we now think it will take the company longer to crack Transport in the US market than previously. However, the balance of the business is performing satisfactorily, and ongoing market share gains in Australia are particularly encouraging

They were right about America and Australian…but NZ must have surprised them

[alokdhir]

This is what they said Re Mainfreight ….. We did reduce our position in Mainfreight modestly as we now think it will take the company longer to crack Transport in the US market than previously. However, the balance of the business is performing satisfactorily, and ongoing market share gains in Australia are particularly encouraging

They were right about America and Australian…but NZ must have surprised them

Agree NZ even surprised me ...seems they lost pricing power at the moment ...which is understandable if u see the state of NZ economy ...its better to keep the business and the customer then full margin ...so they just being pragmatic I reckon

[Grimy]

Will be interesting to see how it affects KFL's share price today

[Toddy]

Will be interesting to see how it affects KFL's share price today

I don't think it will. It does help with moving the discount to Nav closer. Maybe this explains the gap and the reluctance of a big buy up of the heads prior to the warrants exercise date.

It does however give more clarity on the decision process for those who were thinking of exercising their warrants.

[SPC]

Which serves to prove my point that having large proportions (10% to18%) of the investments in a small concentration of companies in a shrinking NZX is becoming a growing risk. KFL is running out (run out?)of new things to buy. The higher the concentration in the favs, the greater the potential returns..and of course risks.
I'm a 20 year holder. I'm not dissatisfied, but I'm also an active holder. The recent reduction in MFT holdings was more than likely coincidence in my opinion as there were no signals or intel disclosed that I'm aware of. The fund needs more diversification in my view but with little else to buy do they simply keep buying more of the same.....or more of themselves?

[bull....]

might hit 1.30 today

[alokdhir]

might hit 1.30 today

Market forces at play ...lol ...me and Ferg were talking about it ...:D

[bull....]

Market forces at play ...lol ...me and Ferg were talking about it ...:D

nz 50 broke out of 2yr range last week to upside ( bullish ) , kfl always been a bit slower to reflect this.

[alokdhir]

nz 50 broke out of 2yr range last week to upside ( bullish ) , kfl always been a bit slower to reflect this.


Whats your target for this break out mate ? And year end target ?

[bull....]

Whats your target for this break out mate ? And year end target ?

no target just follow the trend now. nz been very slow to follow wall st so maybe some catchup ? now that rotation from tech underway and bottom of int rate cycle will help when it declines next yr.

[alokdhir]

no target just follow the trend now. nz been very slow to follow wall st so maybe some catchup ? now that rotation from tech underway and bottom of int rate cycle will help when it declines next yr.

Thanks mate for sharing your thoughts :t_up:

[Ferg]

lol ...me and Ferg were talking about it ...:D
Right on cue ..... funny that.

[RRR]

I converted 25 K warrants to shares today (I hope it has gone through ok) - I actually had 98K warrants but didn't have enough cash today...

[alokdhir]

Like all blue chip stocks their P/E ratios reach the highest when close to low of the cycle ...which is due to the fact that SP is discounting the inevitable better times ahead ...if it was an enlightened market and level playing field then KFL should have been at premium at the low of the cycle but opposite to conventional wisdom it was at maximum discount of almost 13% at the low of the cycle ...while it was at maximum premium at the top of the cycle ...shows KFL investors and market not getting it right which almost all cyclical and blue chip stocks get it invariably ...

[tim23]

Like all blue chip stocks their P/E ratios reach the highest when close to low of the cycle ...which is due to the fact that SP is discounting the inevitable better times ahead ...if it was an enlightened market and level playing field then KFL should have been at premium at the low of the cycle but opposite to conventional wisdom it was at maximum discount of almost 13% at the low of the cycle ...while it was at maximum premium at the top of the cycle ...shows KFL investors and market not getting it right which almost all cyclical and blue chip stocks get it invariably ...

There have been very few times when KFL, MLN and BRM have traded at a premium so what you are seeing now is quite typical.

[Rawz]

Like all blue chip stocks their P/E ratios reach the highest when close to low of the cycle ...which is due to the fact that SP is discounting the inevitable better times ahead ...if it was an enlightened market and level playing field then KFL should have been at premium at the low of the cycle but opposite to conventional wisdom it was at maximum discount of almost 13% at the low of the cycle ...while it was at maximum premium at the top of the cycle ...shows KFL investors and market not getting it right which almost all cyclical and blue chip stocks get it invariably ...
KFL investors just matching the div yield to deposit rates. As rates drop the nav gap will close to reduce the yield.

Excellent time to buy KFL and BRM

Actually how good would it be if the two funds merged

[mike2020]

KFL investors just matching the div yield to deposit rates. As rates drop the nav gap will close to reduce the yield.

Excellent time to buy KFL and BRM

Actually how good would it be if the two funds merged

I wouldn't like them to merge. So many years BRM was static and a very dull hold, it might be a little more innovative of late but I welcome the relative predictability of the nzx in my holdings. Not the mass of bot trades, shorting and low ball takeovers rampant on the asx.

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mark-lister-rate-cuts-are-coming-heres-what-investors-should-do/TX5NGBS6OVG3RBJMNETXMOL3QI/

[Toddy]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mark-lister-rate-cuts-are-coming-heres-what-investors-should-do/TX5NGBS6OVG3RBJMNETXMOL3QI/

So does this mean that the likes of Craig's are going to put their clients money into the thinly traded NZX all of a sudden.

We all know the answer to that.

[alokdhir]

So does this mean that the likes of Craig's are going to put their clients money into the thinly traded NZX all of a sudden.

We all know the answer to that.

He just trying to say that now the bias of the market is upwards ...and for income investors ...either to lock in your LT term deposits ...though that shud have been done 3-6 months back ...or switch to equity based income schemes ....NZX50 shud be markedly higher in next 2 years and its a LT uptrend ...

He just trying to emphasise to nay sayers that worm has TURNED and it will stay that way for few years

Great time to get in KFL type equity income generators ...Divies will keep going up with NAVs and so will SP with market and also current discounts will narrow to more realistic levels


PS : It seems KFL have reduced or still reducing its position in IFT just like MFT while still holding on to big position in FPH !!!

[winner69]

He just trying to say that now the bias of the market is upwards ...and for income investors ...either to lock in your LT term deposits ...though that shud have been done 3-6 months back ...or switch to equity based income schemes ....NZX50 shud be markedly higher in next 2 years and its a LT uptrend ...

He just trying to emphasise to nay sayers that worm has TURNED and it will stay that way for few years

Great time to get in KFL type equity income generators ...Divies will keep going up with NAVs and so will SP with market and also current discounts will narrow to more realistic levels


PS : It seems KFL have reduced or still reducing its position in IFT just like MFT while still holding on to big position in FPH !!!

Making money on stock markets easy peasy eh mate ……as long as you get timing about right ..and do as guru Mark says

[alokdhir]

Making money on stock markets easy peasy eh mate ……as long as you get timing about right

Your last chart of KFL discount to NAV works well ...OUT at either premium or close to nav and IN around 10-15% discount ...as that happens close to TOP and BOTTOM of the market...good indicator for timers :t_up:

[mike2020]

Your last chart of KFL discount to NAV works well ...OUT at either premium or close to nav and IN around 10-15% discount ...as that happens close to TOP and BOTTOM of the market...good indicator for timers :t_up:

Al I believe it went a good 10% plus over NAV for a while when rates were low, I was staggered.

[alokdhir]

Al I believe it went a good 10% plus over NAV for a while when rates were low, I was staggered.


Yes ...happened only once in its history so it maybe one off ...like Covid was one off ...me was also astounded and said many times its not warranted and will surely result in big heartache for buyers now and we all know what happened to buyers over $ 2 ...then it went overboard other side , discount of 13% when SP at $ 1.16

I will not expect premium again ...but my thought still holds ...if one has to pay premium for KFL then time is NOW not when its $ 2 as even bought at 1.50 now u will be good in next year or so but paying premium when over $ 2 u will be underwater for all the time ...lol

[Toddy]

Yes ...happened only once in its history so it maybe one off ...like Covid was one off ...me was also astounded and said many times its not warranted and will surely result in big heartache for buyers now and we all know what happened to buyers over $ 2 ...then it went overboard other side , discount of 13% when SP at $ 1.16

I will not expect premium again ...but my thought still holds ...if one has to pay premium for KFL then time is NOW not when its $ 2 as even bought at 1.50 now u will be good in next year or so but paying premium when over $ 2 u will be underwater for all the time ...lol

To make it a fair race and so I cannot be accused of being biast. I purchased $50k of KFL today to match by $50k in BRM warrants,

At this stage I'm not interested in the MLN portfolio. I will keep an eye on it and start to follow the stocks.