NPX Chart

[winner69]

Not the most complimentary commentary on NPX by the Shareholders Ass ..... but then again reality and working for the small shareholder has never been one of NPX's strengths

Obviously tou get what you get if you have faith in senior management .... NPX is a great case study for the good old halo effect over time

But then again, maybe, the leopard has changed it's spots

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/blog/resin-maker-in-sticky-position-again/

[percy]

Not the most complimentary commentary on NPX by the Shareholders Ass ..... but then again reality and working for the small shareholder has never been one of NPX's strengths

Obviously tou get what you get if you have faith in senior management .... NPX is a great case study for the good old halo effect over time

But then again, maybe, the leopard has changed it's spots

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/blog/resin-maker-in-sticky-position-again/

Cannot see his comments will be of help to his members. Being an Australian company will attract the Aussies who dislike anything to do with NZ.The high yield will drive the SP.the Aussies also accept higher PEs.Aussie brokers will recomend an Aussie company,and the larger Aussie market will make NPX a lot safer company to invest in.NZ shareholders will benefit from stronger company with higher SP.

[h2so4]

Cannot see his comments will be of help to his members. Being an Australian company will attract the Aussies who dislike anything to do with NZ.The high yield will drive the SP.the Aussies also accept higher PEs.Aussie brokers will recomend an Aussie company,and the larger Aussie market will make NPX a lot safer company to invest in.NZ shareholders will benefit from stronger company with higher SP.

The NZSA is stuck in the past but I suppose that's where they have to be.

[yabster]

Just received AGM Voting paper - proposing to grant the new MD 1.8 Mill performance rights over 3 years- whats the justification for that?

[macduffy]

Just received AGM Voting paper - proposing to grant the new MD 1.8 Mill performance rights over 3 years- whats the justification for that?

New man in the post. An incentive to perform.

Whether the quantum is right or not? I wouldn't know but it is probably determined by reference to similar positions in similar companies. Or so we are normally lead to believe.

The bit I object to though is that other participants in the plan are to be determined by the board and that terms and conditions may vary between offers to individuals. Doesn't seem to be any need to seek shareholder approval for these other offers.

[percy]

I sold half my NPX today to fund a purchase of POT.

[macduffy]

Positive outlook at the AGM but exchange rates an issue ( of course).

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10685046

[percy]

Maybe DOPE would be a better option for the funds? :eek2: ;) :D

Too true!!!!!,however with imputated divies I may be able to buy more of both....!!!!??????

[winner69]

Spose the believers will say a really good result and all that which goes with rose tinted glasses

I'd say this is a solid result which would be expected a good old chemical manufacturing company .... a bit of growth in sales but margins under a bit of pressure

They have to learn to stop raising the markets expectations that they are the path to graet riches or else they well disapooint punters again

Notice guidance remains the same ....but put the words 'lower end' in .... OK that means the current guess is that EBITDA will be $135m and NPAT $68m for the full year and a reasonable divie to keep everybody happy (jeez thats some drop of the normalised EBITDA of $148m they raved on about achieving last year)

Never mind - a solid performance - around what one would expect of this sort of company - and such companies generally valued at say 10 and if punters are keen for a bit of risk say 12 times earnings - shareprice of 350 to 420 - so shareprice about right at the mo

[percy]

I am with you here winner69, Great company,Great balance,Great dividend,Great growth prospects.

[winner69]

I am with you here winner69, Great company,Great balance,Great dividend,Great growth prospects.

Wouldn't totally agree on the 'great' growth prospects though

[percy]

Wouldn't totally agree on the 'great' growth prospects though

Ofcourse you do.!! In Vietnam capcity expansion.
In China.secured a site in changshu ,near shanghai for new eastern china plant,and actively pursuing a new site in southern China.
I take the talk about balance sheet strength to mean they have money for more.India? ?? make you as happy as me.?!!!

[RazorX]

Hmm large drop in SP but lowish volume - some investors panicking and getting out?

[winner69]

Hmm large drop in SP but lowish volume - some investors panicking and getting out?

Razor - thats what happens when what you say will happe doesn't quite happen ... there was a earnings downgrade in the announcement ... profit going to be less or about the same as last year .... everybody, and no doubt yourself, was expecting better

Also me old mate how do as a shareholder paying the $3m bucks to some shareholders who got misled by the company when they didn't tell the truth about what was happening and nearly destroyed the company .... the directors say they did wrong and you pay ... good one eh

And no doubt the same individuals will be asking for an increase in directors fees soon

Surprised there has been no real rave about thiis ... maybe they were fortunate witht he timing and punters being distracted by Chch events

[winner69]

See the Shareholder Association are a bit peeved .... says the arrangement “fails any test of fairness”

Just as well NPX has generous and understanding shareholders .... and let the old boys club from Australia play their games

Shareholder group slams SecCom over

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/shareholder-group-slams-seccom-over-nuplex-settlement-nk-86833

[percy]

I see it as a no win situation.If it went on,only people to profit would be lawyers.NPX were caught with their pants down.To defend it would end up costing shareholders.Feltex has proven you will not get the directors.Story,Holland,Hurst have all gone.The horse has bolted,forget about shuting the gate.Closure,move on.
Nothing learnt ?? The old saying about a banker being a man who lends you an umbrella when the sun is shinning,then asks for it back when it starts raining,has again been proven true.

[winner69]

Ofcourse you do.!! In Vietnam capcity expansion.
In China.secured a site in changshu ,near shanghai for new eastern china plant,and actively pursuing a new site in southern China.
I take the talk about balance sheet strength to mean they have money for more.India? ?? make you as happy as me.?!!!

All great prospects percy ... as was the Akzo acquisition a few years ago

The problem with NPX (and why you can't call them a growth company with any confidence) is their inability to capture any of this growth for shareholders benefit and make them really rich

Just look at NPX's eps trends since Akzo acquisition ... from 2006 to 2011 ..... 45 cents / 28 cents / 42 cents / 46 cents / 36 cents / and 36 cents likely this year. (ASB numbers)

Hardly growth is it even though they have done a lot of growth things etc.

Only consistent eps growth (prob . 10% pa) plus a solid dividend will put NPX into the top quartile of companies based on total shareholder returns .... NPX have a long way to go in this respect ..... so in my eyes just a solid old fashioned chemicals company ... sustained growth generating riches to shareholders it is not

Good medium/long trading stockthough ..... won't go broke and the trends last long enough that you generally get a dividend as a bonus along the way.

One for the chart watchers is NPX

[RazorX]

Hi guys

Just looking at the NPX chart today http://www.nzx.com/markets/nzsx/NPX/charts and it has gone down quite a bit from the 3.75 a few weeks ago. Normally this wouldn't worry me, but I may need cash within six months so I'm not really interested in waiting six months to find out that the price has continued south. Would some of our wiser folks here be able to state their views as to whether this is merely a short term correction, or whether NPX is starting a long down trend?

Phaedrus would you be able to do one of your charts please so I can see if it is hitting sell triggers. I can read charts but I haven't got to the stage where I can create them like you.

Many thanks in advance folks.

Razor

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?symb=NZ:NPX&sid=162956&time=1yr&freq=1dy&uf=16384&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=64&sy=nzx&sn=1&site=nzx&countrycode=NZ&mocktick=1&country=NZ&style=2242&size=1&rand=8844

[Phaedrus]

Razor, NPX Sell signals were triggered 3 weeks ago. This ultra-simple chart shows the basic signals quite clearly, and is really all you need. Less is often more, in that adding another dozen assorted indicators would not have got you out any sooner.

First to trigger was the OBV. This is as it should be because the OBV is supposed to be a "leading" indicator, firing ahead of trend-following indicators. (In fact, the OBV triggered a Sell signal while NPX was still rising). Of course it is not good practice to act on the basis of any single unconfirmed signal, and it is unlikely that many would have sold out on the basis of this one. Confirmation was not long in coming though, when the trendline was broken. It would, of course, have been possible to have drawn a series of steeper trendlines, but as each of these were broken in the absence of any OBV confirmation, their "sell" signals would have been ignored. This, therefore, was the first trendline break with Volume (OBV) confirmation.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NPX39.gif

[blackcap]

Charting is always easy in hindsight.

[macduffy]

I think you're missing the point, blackcap.

I'm no TA expert but observation of a few simple trends and indicators has saved me quite a few dollars in recent years. More importantly, for me, its kept me from selling out of profitable uptrends, a bad habit in earlier times.

Just wish I'd "discovered" charts much earlier!

[Phaedrus]

Charting is always easy in hindsight.It really is quite simple, Blackcap - most people find it easy enough to do.

Could you (or indeed anyone) have drawn that OBV trendline anywhere else?

When that long trendline was broken, could you (or indeed anyone) have interpreted that as anything but a SELL signal?

Where, pray tell, is the hindsight?

[blackcap]

Phaedrus, it wasnt an attack on you personally as such. I just find it interesting that all the chartists always show in hindsight what should have been done. I have yet to come across one on this forum that gives a sell or buy signal as it is happening. Until that day I shall remain skeptical.

[Phaedrus]

I have yet to come across a chartist on this forum that gives a sell or buy signal as it is happening. Until that day I shall remain skeptical.But Blackcap, I do better than that. I often post charts with appropriate indicators designed to monitor specific uptrends - BEFORE any sell signals are triggered! Did you not follow the RBD thread, for example? I posted a chart showing suitable indicators MONTHS before they triggered any Sell signals.

Even though my systems are largely based on "end of day" data, sometimes I even post intraday charts or comments drawing attention to what is happening - in real time as on the CFE thread, for example.

Perhaps you have not noticed that many chartists here post Buy signals as they are happening on the "Breakouts and other fun stuff" thread.

[percy]

phaedrus.
I always look forward to your charts and appreciate your sage comments.Thank you.

[blackcap]

Phaedrus, I must admit to being a casual follower of this site and have not followed the RBD thread as intensely as you may have thought. I do not come on the ASX thread at all. I will be more active in searching for your "sage" advice and who knows you may yet have a convert in the future. Until otherwise proven I shall remain a skeptic, courtesy of many a finance professor at Victoria University that rubbish charting using empirical evidence to back up their claims.

[Phaedrus]

I shall remain a skeptic, courtesy of many a finance professor at Victoria University that rubbish charting using empirical evidence to back up their claims.Perhaps that was a long time ago, Blackcap, and your worthy finance professors were unaware of this 2008 research article by Canegratti :-
http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9871/1/MPRA_paper_9871.pdf
To the best of my knowledge, it is, to date, the largest, most comprehensive investigation of TA ever undertaken. Here is his abstract of the paper :-

In this paper I perform a panel data analysis to evaluate whether financial technical indicators are able to predict stock market returns. By using a panel of 40 stocks taken from the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) observed in 2004, I test the ability of 75 amongst the most famous technical indicators used by traders to predict next-day returns. Surprisingly, results are robust in demonstrating that many of these are good predictors, supporting the validity of technical analysis.

Read the article, Blackcap - I'm sure it will be empirical enough for you. The author was surprised - maybe you will be too!

[RazorX]

Phaedrus

Thank you very much for your chart. (I didn't expect a simple request to generate so much... um debate.) I have never used the OBV before.. actually I had never heard of it. I've tended to stick to trend-lines and MA's. I'm finding the MA's don't quite give accurate signals. Are you able to provide any useful resources on the OBV indicator please?

One thing is for certain - I missed the boat well and truly on this one. I think I will put it in my 'experiences' basket for the future.

If my charting skills are correct there is strong support at $3 so I might see if that holds and push my need for cash out 12-18 months allowing time for the SP to rise again.

BTW - what charting software do you use? Those don't look like the NZX charts I use.

Thanks again

Razor

[blackcap]

Thanks Phaedrus, I will have a read. Regards, Blackcap

[arcticblue]

Surprisingly, results are robust in demonstrating that many of these are good predictors, supporting the validity of technical analysis.Phaedrus, I thought you always went on about how TA doesn't predict the future? :)

Pity my trendline was only the first one on your chart and not the accelerated ones, I stayed in until 340. And I foolishly bought at 365 without a buy signal just buying into an existing uptrend :( Still at least I managed to sell once my trendline broke. On that note what do you normally do when the share price gaps down like that from 360 to 340, is that just slippage that you have to factor into your trades?

Oh and thanks for the charts I always seem to learn something new from them.

[Phaedrus]

RazorX, Google "On Balance Volume" and you will get all the info you need. I use MetaStock to prepare my charts.

ArcticBlue, it's really a matter of semantics. A particularly reliable chart pattern might have an accuracy of, say, 75%. This means that the odds in any particular instance of it being a profitable signal are quite good - but it does NOT predict the future. Alternatively, some people might prefer to say that it does predict the future, but with the signal being "right" only 3 times out of 4. It all comes down to money, really. If particular indicators are, overall, consistently profitable, then they work - even though they will not always be right every time.
Re slippage. When I want out, I want OUT, so generally sell "at market". Some slippage is only to be expected.

[modandm]

Razor X - to your question.

I have owned NPX on and off for the last 2 years and feel i have a good idea of how the market is valuing the stock, what levels are cheap and what levels are frothy. I sold out once a while ago at 3.60 and again at about 3.40 a few months ago. I haven't been back in since and wouldn't unless the stock went sub $2.70 which is unlikely.

My views on NPX was that it was recovering from a terrible time in the GFC and was undervalued - the Directors were regularly saying it (they would). However over the past 6 months it has become apparent that the stock was near fairly valued somewhere in the $3.40-3.60 range.

HOWEVER after the recent disappointing results i would expect the company to be valued at $3.15 - $3.30 range. Note the directors are not ramping the stock and growth is not really appearing as others alluded to. In short there is no real upwards driver on the share price. It may still be suitable as a long term hold but for me there are better options in this catagory such as IFT, SKC to name a few. For something with growth potential I would look at AIR or DGL.

If I was in your position i would exit now at around $3.20 or wait for a recovery post earthquake and middle east then look to exit once things settle.

[percy]

Craigs ; 24/2/11. Buy.Target price $3.75. EPS 2011 35cents.P.E 9.8 nett yield 5.9%
Forbar; 25/2/11 Accum. Value $4.11 P.E 9.8 yield 6.9%
today. ACC increases their holding in NPX.
Percy's view. New MD clearing the decks,just to prove what a smart Aussie can achieve.

[winner69]

Many times over the years NPX rises strongly before a results announcement and then fall back quite a lot afterwards

Usually the reults have been good but this result and comments were a shocker .... so anything could happen here

I would think booming oil and commodity prices might be hurting them .... depends how hard it is get customers to accept big price rises eh

[h2so4]

I was hoping the excellent Y10 annual report would have been a driver for an excellent HY report. Wrong, I wouldn't be surprised if we see lower lows.

[winner69]

Last time price of oil spiked was in 2008 .... NPX shareprice was at all time high ($30 according to some charts) ... they said in Aug 2008 things were all honky dory and that increased input costs were being recovered

A couple of months later and all hell broke loose and we all know what eventually happened.

Prob wasn't all the GFC fault as NPX were struggling as high oil prices affected both their input costs as well as demand for their products .... and the GFC was the killer blow when they almost ran out of money

The first part of that story might be starting to play out again .... prob be another GFC as well but they are a bit better off this time around to withstand that ... yes?

[percy]

With a strong balance sheet,top technology,NPX should be able to withstand tuff times.I expect they will be able to take advantage of opportunities .The world is their oyster.

[modandm]

NPX on a PE of 10 is no bargain. Thats what im saying. Typically Chem cos trade on PE of 9 or so.

I don't mind NPX - but it sure ain't a buy right now. Those brokers put anything at a buy because their analysts are optimistic and they need to have something to recommend. Looking at the NZX right now there are very few cheap stocks.

[percy]

Craigs research 15th march;
Net profit 2011 68mil, 2012 70mil, 2013 81mil.
EPS 2011 34cents, 2012 36 cents , 2013 41cents.
PEs 2011 9.2 , 2012 8.9 , 2013 7.5
Dividend yield 2011 6.3% 2012 6.5% 2013 7.5%
BUY with target price of $3.75.

[winner69]

Craigs research 15th march;
Net profit 2011 68mil, 2012 70mil, 2013 81mil.
EPS 2011 34cents, 2012 36 cents , 2013 41cents.
PEs 2011 9.2 , 2012 8.9 , 2013 7.5
Dividend yield 2011 6.3% 2012 6.5% 2013 7.5%
BUY with target price of $3.75.

you prob posted some time ago but was their previous numbers

[percy]

you prob posted some time ago but was their previous numbers

Just keeping you updated.last update was 24/2/11.

[winner69]

On 9/1/11 you posted this on another thread -


Craigs NPX target price $ 3.49 Neutral.

With a disappointing H1 latest is


BUY with target price of $3.75

Prob chief analyst bored with life with not too much to do and the boss says we need to get a bit of actvity going through the trading room

Anyway good for a laugh how these guys work

[percy]

[
Prob chief analyst bored with life with not too much to do and the boss says we need to get a bit of actvity going through the trading room

No,no,no,I think they are starting to share our enthusiasm.!!!! They will change their buy, to raging buy on news of expansion into India or Brasil.We will have the last laugh,as they have not taken growth prospects into account.!!!! I feel we are well poised for the upturn.

[janner]

Hope that the choice is Brazil.. They have a better work ethic in my opinion.

[modandm]

Craigs research 15th march;
Net profit 2011 68mil, 2012 70mil, 2013 81mil.
EPS 2011 34cents, 2012 36 cents , 2013 41cents.
PEs 2011 9.2 , 2012 8.9 , 2013 7.5
Dividend yield 2011 6.3% 2012 6.5% 2013 7.5%
BUY with target price of $3.75.

Earnings downgrade $2-6 million down as increased costs are slowly passed down, also facing asian competition and slow market in australia.

As per my prior posts on this thread - the outlook for NPX was never as rosy as these idiotic analysts had it as. NPX is well worth buying - at the right price. That price is sub $2.70. Fair value 2011 is $3.00-$3.15.

[winner69]

No worries about the future ... well positioned for global growth ... don't worry about the cost .... because 'All of the members of the Executive Team are energised and committed to taking Nuplex into the next stage of its development" .... so says Mr Severin

Good to know ... gives me the warm fuzzies

[percy]

OTE=winner69;345506]No worries about the future ... well positioned for global growth ... don't worry about the cost .... because 'All of the members of the Executive Team are energised and committed to taking Nuplex into the next stage of its development" .... so says Mr Severin

Good to know ... gives me the warm fuzzies[/QUOTE]

Gave me the COLD fuzzies.All the warning signals.Restructing cost $4mil.Any properly run business restructers {adjusts} as it goes.Restructuring therefore means to me "we don't know what we are doing,the tea lady has an idea,".Too many new presidents,who will want presidential rewards and the staff that a president demands.Management by committee,who will only do something after 3 consultants' report.Wet weather,consumer spending restraint,import competition.All negative.Nothing in there that is positive,as far as I can see.Sold more today.

[winner69]

Gave me the COLD fuzzies.All the warning signals.Restructing cost $4mil.Any properly run business restructers {adjusts} as it goes.Restructuring therefore means to me "we don't know what we are doing,the tea lady has an idea,".Too many new presidents,who will want presidential rewards and the staff that a president demands.Management by committee,who will only do something after 3 consultants' report.Wet weather,consumer spending restraint,import competition.All negative.Nothing in there that is positive,as far as I can see.Sold more today.

You sound a little pissed off percy

Aren't all those things they mentioned that are affecting performance just day to day things that any old fashioned chemical company face up regularly ... lifes never easy is it.

Many punters that they had something special and were more than just an old fashioned chemical company .... the telling comment in the announcement was 'increased import competition' ... oh dear they have competitors who can supply cheaper

And like you percy wonder how many presidential type of people are there .... I lost count after 6 ... and actually how big is this company?

[winner69]

One CEO and one CFO not with president in their title

And then by the looks of it 9 with president of some sort in their name

Just as they well they are essentially Australian company now eh .... don't think a NZ company and culture could cope with so many presidents

In saying all that they still have pretty solid performance and make pretty solid earnins ... what one would expect of an old fashioned chemical company

The only thing is that they rarely deliver on the promises around growth ... yes agree sell heaps more than 10 years ago but what value have they delivered to shareholders from all that growth that they have bought?

[percy]

Very.!!!! " increased import competition scared the daylights out of me. .I take it the Aussie dollar is making imports of products cheaper,so Aussie manufactures losing out,which means NPX as a supplierer is missing out.So growth must come from Asian countries,or what ever countries that are supplying the cheaper products.Not good for Aussie manufacturers or NPX.The company is certainly not making any grounds with "advance technology."!!!!
I feel one competent president is enough for any very large company.NPX is not a very large company....!!!
" Lifes never easy is it." I think as an investor I prefer a company which is enjoying life to the full ,is rising ahead of the day to day challenges and is "POISED" for greater profitable business.

[percy]

[QUOTE=winner69;345550]One CEO and one CFO not with president in their title


Agree.Any more and you have management by committee.Must admit a good old fashioned dictator would be welcome.Some one like the late Kerry Packer .Can you see him giving any of his employees the title of President."You're f...k...g mad,son." !!!!
Now that I have got that off my chest I feel better. lol.

[winner69]

But percy its all part of pretending to be a major GLOBAL player .... Presidents and Vice Presidents make it sounds like a HUGE corporation and all that sort of crap

Allusions of grandeur methinks ... and not many sucked in I'd say

and to think that good old Fred and then John did most of this by all by themselves from a pokey little office in Auckland .... but then John tried to do too much near the end eh

No wonder the world today is in the state it is .... the old fashioned values seem have gone and the new fangled MBA of doing things isn't working ... except for making a few feel so grand

Better stop raving on like this ... Sam the ANZ president might pack a sad .... he's a decent sort of bloke who has worked pretty hard all is life .... but even he might feel a little embarassed at being called a President .... hope he hasn't lost his sense of humour

[Te Whetu]

Hi

I'm not a tax expert so thought I would come here to sound out an issue I have with my Nuplex holding. Currently there is no NZ imputation credits on these shares and at today's share price of $3.10 and gross dividends over the last twelve months of 21 cents this means I'm currently paying 2.24% tax per annum on this share (@33% marginal tax rate).

This means I would be pay less under the Fair Dividend Rate ("FDR") method than paying tax on tax on the dividends (would pay 5% * 33% = 1.65% under FDR).

My question is, am I able to elect to use the FDR method for shares which I hold in NZ, and would it make any difference if I purchased those same shares on the ASX?

Cheers
Te Whetu

[Silverlight]

FDR works on 5% tax of your value at tax date aka 31 March. NPX @ $3.10 would mean tax of 15.5 cents uder FDR. Under FDR there is no capital gains or dividend tax.

NPX payed 21 cents of dividends without imputation in the last year, income tax @ 28% PIR on 21 cent dividend is 5.88 cents.

[Te Whetu]

FDR works on 5% tax of your value at tax date aka 31 March. NPX @ $3.10 would mean tax of 15.5 cents uder FDR.

Could someone confirm this, my understanding was that overseas shares using the FDR method are deemed to have a dividend of 5% and tax is then paid on this at an individuals marginal tax rate. With what your're saying, tax on overseas shares would not be linked to an individuals marginal tax rate.

Also any word from people on if I can elect to use the FDR method for an NZX listed stock?

Cheers
Te Whetu

[Omega]

FDR is calculated at 5% of the opening value of the stock plus an adjustment for quick sales based on peak holdings. FDR is nil in the first year of purchase as the opening balance will be nil shares. The 5% of opening value is the deemed return or "income" and tax is payable on that amount at the investors own tax rate. Foreign witholding tax credits can be claimed, but not any credits for the equilavent of NZ imputation credits.( i.e. Austrailian franking credits can not be claimed).

Example for ASX Shares in Company XYZ;
10 Apr 2010 Purchase 5000 shares @ $5.00
10 Oct 2010 Purchase 5000 shares @ $5.50
Tax Return for 31 Mar 2011 - Nil FDR as opening value at 1 April 2010 was no shares held.
Tax Return for 31 Mar 2012 - FDR is calculated on 10,000 shares based on the ASX closing price of XYZ shares on 31 Mar 2011 converted to NZ$ using the IRD published conversion rates for 31 Mar 2011. Let's say the share price was $6.00 on 31 Mar 2011 and the IRD currency converter at 0.7500 the FDR calculation is 10,000 shares @ $6.00/0.7500 =$80,000 @ 5.0% = $4,000 which is the income figure that goes in your tax return for 31 Mar 2012.

Note that not all overseas shares are FDR stocks, and the investor also has the option of using the comparitive value method if this works out to be less than a 5% return. FDR cannot be used for NZX stocks.

[iceman]

Thank you Te Whetu for a well worded question (an issue that has confused me as well) and Omega for a great and clear answer

[Te Whetu]

Thanks Omega! That's pitty, though it is only a small gain.

Still it's sad that for the NZ shareholders it's more tax efficient if NPX shifts domicile to AUS. For high dividend companies without imputation credits it seems to me you pay more tax on there dividends than you would under FDR.

One other question, can I elect for the FDR method for Aus domiciled ASX comanany which pays large dividends? As these have the same issue with more tax being paid on it's actual dividend than under a FDR method.

[Jay]

Just a clarification - the FDR threshold of $50,000 applies to your total holding of FDR applicable shares and not an individual share? e.g if you had 4000 shares of XYZ @ $5.00 per shares and 10,000 shares of ZYX @3.00 per share, therefore you have to use the 5% dividend of the compartive value method.

[Omega]

Thats correct Jay -$50k threshold is for total shares although its worth noting that for the purposes of calculating the threshold value only, the investors cost price in $NZ is used and not the market value of the shares. Once over the threshold, FDR is calculated on the total value, not just the amount over the $50k threshold.

[Omega]

Thanks Omega! That's pitty, though it is only a small gain.

One other question, can I elect for the FDR method for Aus domiciled ASX comanany which pays large dividends? As these have the same issue with more tax being paid on it's actual dividend than under a FDR method.

Unfortunately not Te Whetu - that decison is made by the IRD via an exemption list. Below is the link for the ASX stocks that are exempted for the March 2011 Year.

http://www.ird.govt.nz/calculators/tool-name/tools-a/toii-fif-list-aust-share-exemption-2011.html

[Te Whetu]

Unfortunately not Te Whetu - that decison is made by the IRD via an exemption list.

How annoying. The reason I thought you may be able to "opt in" with the FDR scheme was due to the below quote from the IRD website (http://www.ird.govt.nz/toii/fif/how-taxed/how-tax-exemption/):


AMP Ltd has been a listed on the All Ordinaries index from 1 April 2007 to 31 March 2008. Additionally, in terms of the information available it was not a stapled security, the company has been resident in Australia throughout the income year, and the company maintained a franking account for the same period. If you held a share in AMP during the income year ending 31 March 2008 you will be entitled to treat that company as exempt from the FIF rules.

Assumed "entitled" implied you can choose to make it non-exempt.

Thanks for the help

Te Whetu

[percy]

If Australia slows down a bit more ... how will this affect's NPX's prospects? Looking for opinions before topping up...
The high Aussie dollar is making imports cheaper and more attractive.I think Aussie manufacturers,NPX's customers,will face further headwinds.In fact I see Aussie losing manufacturers to Asia.Therefore NPX will loose further ground in Aussie,which I don't think they will ever regain.NPX's future growth is in Asia,Brasil,and if they can, India.

[winner69]

Sentiment a bit negative at the moment ..... umder 300 for a few days now even though ACC are averaging down ... or buying on the dips maybe

The last thing NPX want is a slow down in the wolds economy esp seeing NZ and now Aust is a bit stuffed for them at the mo

[modandm]

as I have repeated in the past this company is not the shining star some think.

Unless theres a takover bid I see NPX trading lower and into a range between $2.50 and $2.80 for the rest of the year.

This is no technical analysis - this is fundamentals - The company is worth about $3 - $3.50 a share however it deserves to be discounted to the lower levels stated as a result of:

1. Low growth
2. Increasing competition

Not sure why you would want to top up at this point.... Averaging down is a mortal sin

[janner]

To modandm.

NPX is a solid dependable company paying almost 8% on todays price..

It also has a new head of management..

Who has in my estimation his feet on the ground. ( yeah yeah forget the presidential crap ).

I hold .. ( came in at $1.75 at consolidation time )..

Will continue to..



In todays volatile play ground,

[percy]

To modandm.

NPX is a solid dependable company paying almost 8% on todays price..

It also has a new head of management..

Who has in my estimation his feet on the ground. ( yeah yeah forget the presidential crap ).

I hold .. ( came in at $1.75 at consolidation time )..

Will continue to..



In todays volatile play ground,

Can not see how some one with "head in the clouds" can be referred to having feet on the ground.He brought in all the presidents.!!!!

[modandm]

To modandm.

NPX is a solid dependable company paying almost 8% on todays price..

It also has a new head of management..

Who has in my estimation his feet on the ground. ( yeah yeah forget the presidential crap ).

I hold .. ( came in at $1.75 at consolidation time )..

Will continue to..



In todays volatile play ground,

How was it dependable through the GFC - just about went belly up.

As for the yield - you could own WHS o a lower PE, get a better yield and face less risk of competition + the optionality of a potential eventual takeover.

NPX is not close to being in the top 10 NZ stocks to own IMHO.

[Jim]

How was it dependable through the GFC - just about went belly up.

As for the yield - you could own WHS o a lower PE, get a better yield and face less risk of competition + the optionality of a potential eventual takeover.

NPX is not close to being in the top 10 NZ stocks to own IMHO.

With WHS you get full imputation credit and a maybe takeover target

[macduffy]

How was it dependable through the GFC - just about went belly up.


I'm not so sure about that - but of course we'll never know!

The fact is that NPX, like a lot of other companies , got caught in the great "banking covenants" trap of the GFC when their borrowings in foreign currencies - a sensible move when operating in several countries - became technically in default when translated into NZD at a time of extreme currency volatility. The solution was to raise new equity capital in a well supported rights issue. NPX remained profitable throughout this period, albeit at reduced levels, at both the EBITDA and NPAT lines.

I agree that NPX isn't one of NZ's great companies - we don't have many! - but I don't think that it's the dog that some consider it to be.

[janner]

Also macduffy.

That was then..

I feel that it is a different company today.. WHS. is only in NZ. NPX has a wider ( and growing wider ) field to play in.

With greater potential for take over than WHS.

I maybe a little biased .. As said came in at $1.75. sold 20% at $3.30..

Happy to hold the balance at a very good return.

[RazorX]

SP has gone from $3.75 to $2.60 in a very short time. Anyone have any ideas of where the price might find support? I have been holding on to this one but it's getting jolly close to my entry point and my rules state that if it gets within 8 cents of the entry point then sell to avoid a loss. (Bloody idiot for not selling at $3.50... you live and learn I guess - anyone else ever had the 'It's going to go back up' syndrome? :p)

[percy]

SP has gone from $3.75 to $2.60 in a very short time. Anyone have any ideas of where the price might find support? I have been holding on to this one but it's getting jolly close to my entry point and my rules state that if it gets within 8 cents of the entry point then sell to avoid a loss. (Bloody idiot for not selling at $3.50... you live and learn I guess - anyone else ever had the 'It's going to go back up' syndrome? :p)

Every share I own is down today.The odd one has not traded.NPX is like everything,in free fall.I have had a look at NPX chart and cannot see any support level.
I would think your rule should be followed.Then if it keeps falling,you can reenter when the trend changes.I have been at great victim of "It's going to go back up" syndrome,the lower they go the more pain.I am a very painfull person.!!! lol.

[RazorX]

Every share I own is down today.The odd one has not traded.NPX is like everything,in free fall.I have had a look at NPX chart and cannot see any support level.
I would think your rule should be followed.Then if it keeps falling,you can reenter when the trend changes.I have been at great victim of "It's going to go back up" syndrome,the lower they go the more pain.I am a very painfull person.!!! lol.

Lol Hey Thanks Percy. That was my dilemma as well - couldn't see a support level. The last one was $2.78 or there about's and the SP went through it like a knife through hot butter!

I will have to watch close next week as my Stop would be at $2.42 and at the current drop rate it could hit that very fast! (I have bought a few shares but never sold any so it'll be a new experience :))

[PLK]

so RazorX. did you sell npx today as it touch 2.40??

[RazorX]

so RazorX. did you sell npx today as it touch 2.40??


Hi PLK

I sold on Monday at $2.52. Now looking to see if the SP will continue on it's down trend and thus presenting an oportunity to buy again. I did notice it went all the way down to 2.27 on Tuesday then bounced back up yesterday to 2.55 before falling again so it's going to be interesting. Currently trading at 2.29 so this stock is very volital at them moment. One side of me says jump in at this price, the other says wait till an up trend forms. Thoughts?

[percy]

Hi PLK

I sold on Monday at $2.52. Now looking to see if the SP will continue on it's down trend and thus presenting an oportunity to buy again. I did notice it went all the way down to 2.27 on Tuesday then bounced back up yesterday to 2.55 before falling again so it's going to be interesting. Currently trading at 2.29 so this stock is very volital at them moment. One side of me says jump in at this price, the other says wait till an up trend forms. Thoughts?
I would prefer you waited for the uptrend,however you could purchase half now,and half when uptrend is confirmed.

[RazorX]

I would prefer you waited for the uptrend,however you could purchase half now,and half when uptrend is confirmed.

Hi Percy

Good advice from you as always :) Not keen on splitting the purchase as I trade in small lots due to limited capital so fees can really eat into potential gains. If I had $10k to trade with half now and half at confirmation would be a great way to go.

This stock might sink some more yet, or start to find support. A few weeks will tell. I probably should have a look at other stocks as well to see if there are oportunities. (I notice Contact is trading below $5 ... but the again not enough capital to make it worthwhile)

[percy]

RaxorX
. I must admit I share belgarion's view,however I think as you have limited funds you are best to wait.In the GFC, NPX had a weak balance sheet,and the world slow down badly affected them,so I don't expect they will suffer as much this time. And yes look at other stocks.
Most of us started with limited funds,[and some of us have even more limited funds now] !!!!!!!! lol.

[macduffy]

Yes, a good buy, belgy!

Market likes it too with a 10% jump in SP. Still only on a P/E of 7.6 based on this result.

[janner]

To Percy.

#908 & #909

I am very happy and by the report will be even happier in 24 months time..

Damn I should have topped up !!..

[percy]

A good result.I am unconvinced about getting too excited.Time will tell whether all the new presidents perform or not.Must admit I did like John Hurst.

[h2so4]

This was a turn around on the first half.

Bought back in on the good result. Is that a worry percy?????????

[percy]

This was a turn around on the first half.

Bought back in on the good result. Is that a worry percy?????????
No worry !!!
I have had a sh't of a day,so guess I am a bit negative about everything.Just trying to hang onto a bit of cash.I have a lot of shares,but not too much cash.About 85% invested,so not a lot of room to move.
With the strong balance,and good divie I think you should do well.
I sold down.In fact , about the only one I got my timing right.I suppose my holding now is about right.
I am pretty keen on AWF in NZ.Added to my wife's holding at $1.85.

[h2so4]

No worry !!!
I have had a sh't of a day,so guess I am a bit negative about everything.Just trying to hang onto a bit of cash.I have a lot of shares,but not too much cash.About 85% invested,so not a lot of room to move.
With the strong balance,and good divie I think you should do well.
I sold down.In fact , about the only one I got my timing right.I suppose my holding now is about right.
I am pretty keen on AWF in NZ.Added to my wife's holding at $1.85.

Put a Fred Dagg song on. :)

I like AWF too.

[Lizard]

Haven't looked at NPX in ages, but that result makes it looked darned cheap.

Bit hard to make guesses on the outlook - maybe some one-offs to wear this year in capacity expansion?

Price/Sales of 0.32 on this still looks like a good long-term entry.

[percy]

Holly molly! Morningstar folk have put a value of $4.00 on NPX ... a very, very long way from the current 2.64! ... (and some distance from my valuation too!)
We certainly live in interesting times.They must know something we don't know ? Yeah right.!!!!!

[janner]

Only $4.00 Belg !!..

My take on this company is that " You Ain't seen Nothing Yet "..

It is already one of the largest companies of its kind in the world..

Expanding into countries that ARE expanding..

They realise that Aust.. NZ.. America.. Euro.. is only good for " Bolt On ".. thus reducing competition..

Have their Technical division in Euro.. The best place..

Understand the world division.. i.e. Tariffs.. Countries internal delivery problems..

Only have 50k shares .. Diss-appionted in one way for the DRP to have been dropped .. Happy in other ways because it will restrict the quantity avaliable ..

Fundies are buying..

Will be re-investing dividend into NPX.

My thoughts for what they are worth :-))

[lou]

Holly molly! Morningstar folk have put a value of $4.00 on NPX ... a very, very long way from the current 2.64! ... (and some distance from my valuation too!)

@Bleg what valuation did you have for NPX?

@Janner what valuation did you have for NPX?

[lou]

3.30'ish (and not a penny more!)
This still only brings it up to a P/E of 10. You don't think it will get up to say 14? This would see the price of $4.60.


PE down to 7 ish, yeild running at about 10%, balance sheet in good shape, many NPX markets not affected ... It looks like a screaming bargain to me based on fundies and macro outlook. ... discl: pyrimid in place and the top is gone.
@bleg Sound like you picked up a bargain. However I don't understang your disclaimer "pyrimid in place and the top is gone" what is this pyramid?

[winner69]

This still only brings it up to a P/E of 10. You don't think it will get up to say 14? This would see the price of $4.60.


@bleg Sound like you picked up a bargain. However I don't understang your disclaimer "pyrimid in place and the top is gone" what is this pyramid?

Belg's pyramids are famous - I'll leave it to him to explain - I couldn't do it justice

Lou - markets never get too excited about boring old chemical companies and value them acordingly - nearly always below the market PE

NPX PE over the last 10 years has been 10/10/10/8/15 = market PE was an irrational 19 / 7/3/8/9 .... so whats changed

Have you noticed that eps has declined for the last 3 years (even the last financial years) and it is essentially the hype over that project that is going to expand margins that drives those forecast eps of 37 cps compared to this years 33 cpc.

Thats my view for whats it worth - nothing to get too excited about but a good old fashioned chemical company giving good returns if you buy at the right price

Good write up in the Sunday paper wasn't it

[janner]

Lou.

Sorry been out of town for a few days.

Picked mine up just before the 1 for 4 as they went into an uptrend.
Arriving @ approx $1:78 per share.
Sold approx 25% @ $3:30 Thus reducing my cost per share.

Quite happy to sit on the balance, approx 50k. which is giving me a very healthy ROI.
Boring it maybe. They are growing their busines in the correct areas IMO..

Todays value ?? Belg is about right.. I put it a little higher. $ 3:80

All going well in the world.. That will be a bargain in 18/24 months time .. IMO :-))

[janner]

Read todays Yahoo report on NPX.. Not that one should rely on their reports to invest.

Seven are putting it on " Out perform ".. ..

Should I say .. Seven more ( or others ) are saying .. Out perform ???..

Still buying..

[janner]

As my purse can afford it :-))

[janner]

Ooops.. As soon as my purse can afford it ..

[janner]

Some times there are people that are in the right place at the right time..

We all know and envy them..

NPX is ... IMHO..

CEO who has been working his butt off in the American decline..

From Tasmania.. Even more looked down upon than NZ.. By Aussies..

Has his money where his mouth is from the word go !!.. Declined a little since his initial investment..

Ok.. He made Presidents.. Out of managers.. ..

Hmmmm... No comment. ..

We all live and learn :-))

The books are in good health..

I believe that the management are aware of, and understand todays problems..
With the shareholders concerns at the forefront of their thinking since the 2008 GFC.

What more can you look for ??

[RazorX]

SP at $2.71, big drops in SP over the last few days, not much buying depth. A retest of $2.50 coming up?

[lou]

I believe nuplex went ex 11c dividend on the 29/09/10 so that has affected the price a bit.

[winner69]

Gaynor in the herald this morning getting stuck into NPX with their proposal to increase directors fees from $1.0m to $1.5m on what appears to be pretty weak arguments ... yep 50% ... and has pointed out that since the last increase the return to sahreholders have fallen by 74% ... ouch

Jeez Chairman Aitken got paid $287k last year

All seems a bit outrageous but suppose that's the cost share holders have to bear to get people to look after their interests .... but it all looks a bit one way eh

The article is here - did get stuck into SKL, MHI and MFT as well
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10760859

[Lizard]

Good on him.

I'm astounded that we're still seeing these sort of proposals. Even more astounded at the apparent shareholder reluctance to clamp down on it. I honestly thought it was an anomaly of the good times that would stop rising like house prices and we'd see incomes showing price compression.

Are company management using the same justifications to give their staff the same sort of pay rises? If so, would expect most of these companies to start becoming uncompetitive, given I don't know many real-world people who've been offered a pay rise in the last 3 years...

[percy]

.

I reviewed the director's holdings in many of the better performing NZX stocks over the last 4 years - and guess what? - the better performers all have directors and senior management with skin in the game - and some, e.g. MHI, have directors and snr mngt with serious skin and they're not adverse to buying more when prices are low.

How true,and as they know their business they have no cause to use outside consultants.

[winner69]

Gaynor also mentioned SKL and some their proposals being put to shareholders - bith directors and execs

All those guys have serious skin in the game as you put it .... and they want shareholders to give them even more .... good stuff eh

[winner69]

Maybe we should start putting these sort pf practices in processes in NZ

Looks like things are happening to stop the carry ons that piss off shareholders and workers alike ... the greedy will get their comuppance one day soon

http://www.theage.com.au/business/running-to-save-their-executive-bacon--alas-it-may-be-too-late-20111014-1loyo.html

[Lizard]

We should have a separate thread on this topic... rouse the troops to start voting...

[janner]

A seperate thread on NPX to arouse the troops or an over all blanket thread Liz ???..

an overall blanket thread in my opinion would just be another " Occupy Wall Street ".. No direction..

[macduffy]

I'll leave it to someone else to open the new thread if anyone's so inclined.

Meanwhile, I've voted my holding against NPX's directors' fee increase but not expecting more than registering a protest. Gaynor's right in that directors and management have to earn their increases by improved performance, like everyone else!

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Nuplex buys resins business

JASON KRUPP Last updated 05:00 29/10/11

Source: http//www.stuff.co.nz/business/5873211/Nuplex-buys-resins-business

Nuplex Industries is making its third business buy of the year as part of its continuing acquisition strategy, this time paying 75 million (NZ$129.5m) for Bayer Material Science's Viverso unit.

Nuplex shares closed 0.38 per cent lower yesterday at $2.65, and have lost about a quarter of their value so far this year.

The company said the acquisition of the Germany-based company would add to earnings in the current financial year, and was expected to help boost Nuplex's earning forecast by 10 per cent. Viverso makes resins used in coatings and putties.

"It's just a very natural fit with our existing European business, that's the great appeal of it," Nuplex chief executive Emery Severin said. "It complements our existing products and strengthens our position in others, particularly in the industrial automotive industry in Europe, in coatings."

He said the acquisition, which would make Nuplex the No 4 resins manufacturer in the region, was also appealing because of Viverso's Bitterfeld plant, considered to be one of the most efficient and flexible plants of its kind in Europe.

The deal is subject to German regulatory clearance and was priced at about 6.5 times that of Viverso's annual pro-forma earnings before interest, depreciation and amortisation, a level that Forsyth Barr analyst John Cairns labelled an "appropriate multiple".

[winner69]

Market didn't get too excited about another earnings accretive acquisition (NPX always say this but its been hard to see the accrretiveness ever come through) ... esp when the markets had one of its best days for yonks

Msybe punters put off by the veiled profit downgrade that came with the announcement

[winner69]

Belg .... hope you noticed these guys are not just 'well positioned' .... but 'in a stronger position' and 'in a better position'

Can't go wrong can they

[janner]

To belgarion.

I see NPX in a slightly different market . They are expanding because they are picking the eyes out of what those " Big " Chemical companies have been ignoring ..
Also they are not really expanding their base products outside of what they are already doing...
Just concentrating on what they know.. and refining their service.. i.e. The Batching bolt on.. Improving a service that they already provide. Viverso providing a wide sales base with good technical reasons....

Orbis recently picked up about 2 Mill.

As previously said.. I sold 25% of holdings at about $3.30.. Am now back in the market picking up when my cash and the market price meet.

[winner69]

Hmmm ... Some big chemical companies (including DuPont, Wacker Chemie)have announced downgraded forecasts so by rights NPX should be falling today ...

Belg .... methinks NPX read this and said we need to really come clean as well .... and hey presto an anoouncement today .... a bit before 5pm though so not too bad ... but the first of many?

[winner69]

What a load of waffle that announcement was but I think the general gist was we are selling as much as we thought and we will make less money (NPAT and not that silly EBITDA they love) than last year .... even after spending all that money buying things

2 downgrades in a couple of months not good eh .... no wonder NPX trading on a PE of about 7 ,,,, cheap as eh .... but no doubt more downgrades to come

Ignoring the disaster of a few years ago the current shareprice of 221 must be about the lowest it has been this century .... what the heck is going on

Must be testing punters patience

[winner69]

Good ol Morningstar rerated NPX last week to a BUY with a target of $4

How do you put some sort of value on a company that just covers it cost of capital ... keeps buying things with new investor money or increased debt .... and the top line hardly budges

Maybe treating NPX as a bond is one way of putting a value on them .... if they maintain their 21 cents dividend for a few years (yes?) is a start. You can get 8% on NPX capital notes at the moment so that is a minmum return .... as an equity holder you would want more .... a minimum of 10% really doesn't cover the equity rsik does it .... but 10% yield gives a share price (notional bond value) of 210 .... wow thats about what the market sold it down to the other day .... I'd and maybe others would want more than 10% so maybe sub $2 coming up

[janner]

So where is your money winner ??

more positivity please ..

[macduffy]

I think we need to cut NPX - and the dwindling group of other NZ manufacturers/exporters - a bit of slack at the present time. A strong NZD and soft markets don't lend themselves to good results for these companies.

Not necessarily a time to buy but not a time to jump ship either, IMO.

[winner69]

So where is your money winner ??

more positivity please ..

C'mon Janner be fair .... it is the festive season

Where's my money .... not in NPX at the moment (even though made heaps over the years) but maybe, just maybe, I might another punt on NPX going up ... depends on what the charts (ie market sentiment) tell me

Morningstar had $4 target for NPX ... one model of mine has $3,85 so maybe Morningstar have got it right .... a potential double bagger here eh

NPX are not really understood by the market - in that

1 -All the old guard like Hirst et al have gone and they now have a new focused management team focused on delivering on a refreshed and vigorating strategy

2 - They are moving away from making a 'commodity' to delivering more 'solutions' - ie more value / higher margins

3 - Recent acquisitions are aligned to this strategy

4 - Strong financial disciplines mean any new acquisition is EPS accretive in the short term

5 - NPX global reach is expanding - particularly across Europe although strong growth prospects in Asia and China

6 - Taking heaps of expense out of the business, esp in the mature Aust and NZ markets
shed

7 - and other good stuff they are doing


Jeez they are making record profits at the moment and all that stuff hasn't really Kicked in yet. The world is a tough place to make money in at the moment but heck now Europe is sorted, The US is stayting to get a roll and China still growing strongly NPX will do OK

So lets say 33 cents EPS this year + accretive gains from acquisitions of say 5 cents + plus 12 cents from costs and efficiencies + organic growth of say 3 cents. All up EPS of 53 cents and even at a PE of 7 a shareprice of 370 odd .... but heck at a PE of 10 over $5

All NPX has to do is convince the market that there is a new NPX .... it is not Hirsts old fashioned chemical company anymore but a focused new global specialist chemical company ... succeed in that and we'll be rich eh Janner

[janner]

I agree with all you say W69. Still have it on my " to buy " list.

[janner]

Ooops.. must disagree with the... " China still growing strongly ".. Which will twist many statements from the Guru's

A family member ( broker ) in Shanghai is not being upbeat.. Wife side ..

Other family member ( broker ) in London is saying very little.. Sisters son..

China's years of squanderous spending is coming home to roost.. IMO.. Just like Greece but in other areas..

It all comes down to ones own interpretation..

I still like NPX.. Orbis also do.. They have picked up at least 4 mill over the past few weeks..
As does the CEO.. 60,000 a few weeks ago..

Better prospects than GPG..FPA...TME.. CEN...HBY.. et al and as Belgarion has mentioned.. a good dividend..
Not his exact words..

Must admit that the current price is still higher than my original investment... Top ups included ..

[winner69]

Maybe its that time of the year but maybe an indication of the how much NPX is rated these days is the lack of any credible commentary in the press since Friday

Good for them ... maybe dodged a bullet and no more harm to the shareprice after the initial reaction on Friday .... probably go up today

[winner69]

Ooops.. must disagree with the... " China still growing strongly ".. Which will twist many statements from the Guru's

A family member ( broker ) in Shanghai is not being upbeat.. Wife side ..

Other family member ( broker ) in London is saying very little.. Sisters son..

China's years of squanderous spending is coming home to roost.. IMO.. Just like Greece but in other areas..

It all comes down to ones own interpretation..

I still like NPX.. Orbis also do.. They have picked up at least 4 mill over the past few weeks..
As does the CEO.. 60,000 a few weeks ago..

Better prospects than GPG..FPA...TME.. CEN...HBY.. et al and as Belgarion has mentioned.. a good dividend..
Not his exact words..

Must admit that the current price is still higher than my original investment... Top ups included ..

You be pleased that Orbis bought more ..... those punters who sold to them must be really stupid eh

Janner - quick question re how yoy value your remaining shares in NPX .... what happened to the proceeds of the NPX shares you sold?

[janner]

Winner.

Today the CEO has bought 120,00 more..

Would have to take time to work out yoy.. at this time of YOY.. extremely busy..

Not to up on the mathematics.. Just run it through my head.. YES..or..No..

Bought just before they did the one for four.. thus 1.80 still hold the original 75% Sold 25% at 3.30 almost recovered half..

Still hold 75% owing me about 1.35..

What happened to the proceeds.. Good question..


So much to do for that answer.. So little time :-))

It all has to be related to one initial investment dollars.... ( Very happy )

Also as to how one is placing oneself for tomorrow.. ( Quite cocksure )..

Me ?.. Back into buying NPX.. For one..

And your recommendations Winner ??

[winner69]

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=2989914

ACC selling a big chunck ... Not a good sign as ACC generally pretty shrewd ...

no need to worry belg ..... think they jsut worked out that they just had too many (ie too much overweight NPX) and this just a rebalancing act ..... wouldn't want too much of the portfolio (our money) in one stock would we

[janner]

To whom did they sell a big chunk ??..

[macduffy]

A few other points to consider:

- That 8.75% yield is historical. As QBE reminded us recently, these profits have to be earned each and every year to provide those dividends.

- NPX business is dependent on global economies. Europe entering recession (probably); USA moving gingerly forward?; Aust/NZ plodding along. Not a lot of growth expected except China/Asia where signs are that the rate here is already slowing.

- NPX profits also dependent on NZD exchange rates.

- Recent recovery from SP lows of mid-December. Short term trend has been up, probably as a result of brokers' recommendations.

Personally, I don't see them as a compelling Buy at this stage but DYOR.

[winner69]

....... It's a very strong board, ........

Yeah ..... how many millions did the company have to pay (shareholders money eh!0 to get several of the current directors out of one big hole?

But never mind that indiscretion is behind them and they are a bit wiser .... and sounder

[percy]

Changing markets NZ and Aussie underperforming,Europe expansion ? Asian growth.
Changing management , yet to be proven.
Difficult sector,and a company finding it hard to pass on costs.
Profit downgrade.
Pig in poke at present.

[janner]

Hmmm..

!. NZ/Aust.. Stable. Not growing ... not declining..
2. Europe. Have holdings in Germany and the Netherlands. The stronger economies.
3. Changed management. Already have put cost cuts into place and persuing more.
4. Profit down grade. To last years profit.. a 21 cent dividend..
5. A Pig that is beginning to get a lot of GRUNT..

Just my thought Perc..

[percy]

[QUOTE=janner;365776]Hmmm..

!. . A Pig that is beginning to get a lot of GRUNT..


Oi, oi, oi,trust you are right.
I am at present watching from the sidelines as I don't know.!!!

[POSSUM THE CAT]

janner do you want to buy a barge pole. I would not even touch it with one

[janner]

Have admitted before.. I am coming from a $1.80 something original purchase.. With sales and purchases since..

Sounds to me as if you have been bitten in the decline Possum..

Accumulating..

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Janner had the sense to never own. It is the same class as FPA.

[winner69]

Janner will be pleased ..... NPX to take Russia by storm .... no doubt this little venture will be eps accretive like all the past ones ... but who cares this expansion and expansion is good .... from little acorns giant oak trees grow

[janner]

Janner will be pleased ..... NPX to take Russia by storm .... no doubt this little venture will be eps accretive like all the past ones ... but who cares this expansion and expansion is good .... from little acorns giant oak trees grow.

Oh Ye of little faith Winner.

The move into Russia was well flagged..
This is no Blitzkreig..
This is not a delayed move because the Italian forces are in trouble with Greece.. AGAIN ..
Quite the opposite..
We have no commitment to Italy..
The " Campaign " has been launched on time according to plan..
With a minor drive into a strategic area.
Modest " objectives " have been set ..
With enough caution to assess the lie of the land before committing to a full on assault..

Does that make you want to sign on :-))

[percy]

Janner will be pleased ..... NPX to take Russia by storm .... no doubt this little venture will be eps accretive like all the past ones ... but who cares this expansion and expansion is good .... from little acorns giant oak trees grow.

Oh Ye of little faith Winner.

The move into Russia was well flagged..
This is no Blitzkreig..
This is not a delayed move because the Italian forces are in trouble with Greece.. AGAIN ..
Quite the opposite..
We have no commitment to Italy..
The " Campaign " has been launched on time according to plan..
With a minor drive into a strategic area.
Modest " objectives " have been set ..
With enough caution to assess the lie of the land before committing to a full on assault..

Does that make you want to sign on :-))

Make sure the "campaign" is over before the Russian winter sets in.!!!!!

[janner]

My point exactly Perc.. January.. Skirmish..

General Winter is a long way from being called back into action..

Home and hosed before Autumn...

[Lizard]

My NPX020 come up for election date in September... get the price down on these NPX and I might request conversion (might explain why it is worth shareholders while to pay a higher div now and put a floor under the s.p.!). :)

[skydog]

I got a nice letter from Mr 'Zero Commission NZ Ltd' today offering to buy my shares for $2.30 with no commission fees. What a nice man he must be. What a shame he didn't include a self addressed envelope to save me 60 cents. Oh well next time.

I suppose he has to be in to win. :t_down:

[kizame]

Yes has broken downtrend,and trending up,but on low volume,has burst through the 200 day mov.av.But yes looking positive.

[janner]

Have ridden this company up from it's low.. .. Have divested 25% at almost it's high.. and have accumulated it from $2.40..

Always defended it as a good company to have in ones portfolio.

Still accumulating..

Value !!..

[Hoop]

Breakout pending? low vols, bounce to top off bollies, MACD and RSI all pos ... Any chance of some TA commentary?

discl: accum

NPX has a low PE (8-9 area) high Div yield status with sustainability perceptions however recently it's showing a reducing EBITA trend due to it's present tough market environment putting pressure on that low PE / high yield status. FA investors should be theoretically be in with this one....one would think, as that sustainability perception comes about as NPX has adopted an acquisition defense strategy to strengthen it's position during this period of market weakness.

So does TA agree with FA theoretical stance...hmmm sort of... however TA is showing investor doubts... OBV for a year now has been showing an overall decline of "smart money" agreed with the Accumulation/Distribution indicator showing the same overall distribution trend for the last 15 months now. There have been shorter periods of ups and downs when some sort of momentum appears and lifts the price such as the market perceiving the share price at 2.30/2.40 as too oversold back in Aug 2011 when the Full year Results showed a solid year considering the tough environment....However this buyer momentum evaporated and since then a lack of momentum and a tougher market caused a downtrend of the share price capitulating to a new low on the 16th Dec 2011 with the negative guidance announcement...this again created buyer momentum (less than in Aug/Sept) as it was perceived that the share price had dropped too much and a raft of TA buyer signals were triggered as they did back in Aug 2011 (not marked on chart)...this time ..so far:mellow: "touch wood" the share price has held up ..that's a positive for the shorter term however the long term shows NPX in a bear market cycle making lower highs and lower lows...again the MA200 break is positive as it is a sign that the bear cycle is weakening and the $2.10 could be the bottom.

So where to now in the shorter term....
who knows:confused: for sure.

Chart indications are that if no large events happen (Status Quo) it would seem that the share price is due for a "have a breather mode" after its hugging the top Bollinger line the last few days combined with low volume and no momentum..It's great to see a medium term higher high with the breaking of the 2.65 resistance but this now support may not hold...no worries...it's no big deal as long as the 2.50 support holds..I expect the share price to test the 2.75/2.80 roadblock and with the present momentum status I expect that test would fail.

Looking at a theoretical scenario of a 2.80 breakout the next biggee is the $3.00 game changer the resistance level where the cyclic bear cycle turns to a bull cycle.

Also....

Quote from Half year result (24 Feb 2012)......

"...In line with previous guidance, Group earnings before interest, tax,



depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were $57.3 million, down 12% on the



$65.1 million achieved in the first half of the 2011 financial year. Ongoing


strength of the New Zealand dollar, particularly against the US dollar,



accounted for a quarter of the EBITDA decline. ...."





When a currency downtrend occurs a FA investor would theoretically assume a positive response to the share price ...apart from kneejerk "noise" the historical longer term view on the NPX chart shows no correlation of that fact. (Yellow v Green lines on chart)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NPX26042012.png

[modandm]

From an FA perspective I see a lack of confidence in future earnings - ie a lack of quality of earnings. Not to say earnings won't be made but that there are elevated levels of risks to earnings relative to other listed stocks. Based on this an appropriate PE for NPX imho is around 7x. Current pricing at 9x reflects the good dividend yield on offer and the increased interest from private investors in the stock. I haven't seen many fund managers buying in and I am not tempted. The real question I ask myself is why NPX thinks it can compete with low cost asian competition in the future.

[corporateraider]

Modandm
I too am concerned that NPX has reached a size where it may come under attack in the same way that NUF did a few years ago. I too was convinced to buy the chinese sourced weed killing product of a Nufarm competitor as it was significantly cheaper than the Nufarm product. My experience however was that the only thing that it killed was the couple of hours of my time that it took me to apply it.

[Lizard]

Mulling over NPX again... seems reasonable value here at $2.70 and PEG should look okay again once we get through the current year result, as Viverso and Acquos make a contribution. A few hard to like things about the business - vulnerable to toxic liability claims, vulnerable to exchange rates, relatively low margin business and the impression from the various presentations is wishy-washy in terms of management and direction. Not that it would be easy to be much else with this type of business in the current climate. Could be cheap enough for a takeover target still.

I have a few of the NPX020 that come up for election date in September. Am guessing Nuplex won't be keen to offer more than 7.5-8.0% - maybe less, since their bank funding is all under 6% and they're not too stretched on debt. May end up being a good time to take the conversion option seriously, presuming they don't redeem (although that remains a possibility).

[macduffy]

And will the new currency benchmark with the USD (78c, down from 82c) help push NPX higher in the next few months?

Only if they've learnt from their nasty experience a few years ago. The problem then was that they had borrowed in USD and other currencies to fund their overseas operations. Not a bad policy in itself but the problem was that their borrowing covenants were related to NZD equivalents. As the NZD depreciated against (mainly) the USD, the NZD equivalents ballooned out and broke the limits.

As we know, they had to raise new equity to restore the situation. No doubt they won't fall into that trap again?

[percy]

Last support level at 2.15 and I bought. Sold at 2.60 thereby driving down my average price and driving up my yeild.

One notes that NPX's divie will probably need to be scaled back a bit but that alone does not explain the weakness.

Anyone else see 2.15 being reached? The Europe story could run for quite a few months yet so 2.15 might be a bit brave.

Any takers for the downtrend to continue and we breach 2.00? Would make a new bottom around the 1.85 mark.

I think there is a big hole in NPX''s Aussie earnings.NZ earnings will be weak.Asian earnings will not cover these big holes.US,UK and europe will be a mixture. I can not understand why people are buying in a down trend.

[percy]

Percy me ol' mate ... down trends and up trends are relative to the time period you measure each by. I'm quite content to buy at lower lows and sell once short term uptrends terminate. Each to their own I guess.

Watch my buying of shares carefully.My buying has stopped many a good uptrend.

[janner]

He who hesitates is lost Perc..

[winner69]

NPX say EBITDA for the full year will be flat - assumes means the same as last year

Jeez EBITDA was down 12% at the half ..... so the second half they have done bloody well against last year to get back to even

Modest people aren't they ..... not crowing too much about how well they are doing .... some would have said strong EBITDA growth etc


At then end of the day theyt did not really have to make an announcement today .... after all nothing has changed from previous guidance (which was in a pretty tight range anyway)

So why todays announcement?

[percy]

[QUOTE=percy;374949]I think there is a big hole in NPX''s Aussie earnings.NZ earnings will be weak.Asian earnings will not cover these big holes.US,UK and europe will be a mixture.

"In ANZ our own manufactured volumes are more likely to be down around 12%.not 9%" No surprises there.!

[janner]

Finger hovering . :-)

[percy]

I have nothing to say,although I can't stop thinking of those wonderful Bridgecorp ads "Why take the risk"?

[janner]

BUY.. going up again already.

[kizame]

Bounced off support on the weekly chart at $2.20,but where to from here.... who knows,I don't think it will go anywhere until europe picks up again,and who knows when that will be.

[Te Whetu]

There's nothing sleepy about the NZX response to this news, the reason being... it's not news.

Remember, they were paying in excess of 10% in the current market!

Disc:Hold

[winner69]

Well what else can one say ..... a fantastic result (esp for an old fashioned chemical company)

This announcement will boost the shareprice no end as expectations are now getting high .... especially as a full year of Viverso to be factored in

Over 300 soon and heading towards 400 by the half year announcement after Xmas methinks

[winner69]

Yes I humbly apologise to all of you converted ones and followers .... NPX is a growth company with graet prospects

Jeez a 7.9% yield really should be 4%-5% in this low interest environment - shareprice upsiade of 33%-50% then?

[janner]

Percy said 07-06-2012

I have nothing to say,although I can't stop thinking of those wonderful Bridgecorp ads "Why take the risk"?.

Oh !!.. Ye of little faith .. Perc..

[janner]

Perc.. you are still ahead of me in the stock picking contest..

Hopefully this will stop my slide backwards over the past few weeks :-)

[percy]

Percy said 07-06-2012

I have nothing to say,although I can't stop thinking of those wonderful Bridgecorp ads "Why take the risk"?.

Oh !!.. Ye of little faith .. Perc..

Yes wrong again.Just made a huge mistake;tried to book a cheap flight to auckland and back in feb 2013.Three hours later after giving credit card details and pressing proceed ,the web page came up error message. Jet star need estar to do their web page,!!!!
ps.janner have a look at how well percy is doing in the Aussie comp..!!! Yeah right,can't hold on for much longer...!!!!
Had another go at booking a Jetstar flight.Failure again.When I rang the 0800 number to tell them they were tossers I gave up after being told it I would be on hold for over 5 minutes.!!!!!

[janner]

Yes Percy is right.. .. Lost out on the cheap))


Win some lose some..

With you on ..

HNZ..... Hang in there

[winner69]

I've been saying the same thing for ages ... Alas noone is listening ...

That 7-8% just shows you that there is a pretty hefty equity risk premium in the market .... obviously even a 8% divie yield not tempting ounters away from term deposits .... might lose some of their capital eh so want a bit od safety

Belg .... maybe the market does know more than you and me .... thats why noone is listening to you (nobody listens to me so it doesn't matter) .... they know whats on the horizon

[winner69]

Holly molly! Morningstar folk have put a value of $4.00 on NPX ... a very, very long way from the current 2.64! ... (and some distance from my valuation too!)

That was a year ago Belg ..... Morningstar must have $5 on them by now

[lou]

That was a year ago Belg ..... Morningstar must have $5 on them by now

Morning Star current valuation is $3.50

My on valuations put it as the most undervalued company on the NZX.

[glennj]

This August 10th Forsyth Barr (I'm not one of their clients) has a valuation of $3.85 on NPX. My screening & research put it on the potential buy list a while back. Agree that it is one of the more undervalued stocks out there. Have picked up a few as have a number of my friends.

[winner69]

Haven't had a chance to look at why .....but if NPX made heaps why didn't Shareholder Equity go up ......it seems about the same as a year ago

[janner]

NPX did not make heaps !!..

As I see it.. NPX held it's own in a very tough market..
With their books in good order and with good management in place. NPX is now a GLOBAL company. With GLOBAL expertice.
Positioned to take advantage of the opportunities opening up in the aftermath of the GFC..
Slow as it maybe.. Things are improving world wide.. ( with the odd hiccup coming ).

NPX will be there with vision IMHO..

Bet you are happy with todays movement winner ..

Disc. Holding

[winner69]

NPX did not make heaps !!..



HEAPS = $63m

Paid divies of $40m so you would think shareholder funds would have gone up $20m plus but it only went up a few mill

What happened to the rest

[janner]

Will admit to not having gone through the report fully.. ( A fault of to many shareholders )..
But can assure you that I will be combing it before the annual..

Think from first glance that the divvy took more than it's usual percentage. ( Keeping faith with the followers )..

Despite the large jump today.. Will have no qualms going along with the DRP..

[winner69]

Methinks the Specialties part of the business is in play for anybody whose interested

A bit of a mish mash of units ......only common theme they sort of use resins but they exist to service customer functional needs

$150-$200m could fund a few more 'pure' resin plays eh .....or for janner a special dividend

[winner69]

Holy cow look at that Nuplex go! Up 7% today. Nothing disclosed on the NZX information board. Big numbers too - must be a fund buying in.

Might be something in my post the other day sparky

[winner69]

@Winner69 - can you speculate more about the wealth in this company - its very good for me.....

It made $20m EBITDA last year which was a bad year .....efficiencies and all that with a bit of growth maybe $25m is what a global is interested in ......and might be interested in paying $150m plus for it ...... Just maybe ......pure speculation on my part of course

NPX getting richly valued now ......you say a fund buying in ..... I hope it's not one where my kiwisaver is in ....doomed for subpar returns if so

[SCOTTY]

Bugger ... Scotty's who is at number 2 on the NZX share comp has NPX too ... I just can't get a break :)

Hi Belg. See we both have PGW as well :rolleyes:

[janner]

75632 shares traded over 484 trades today..

Auto trading coming to NPX ??. Why ??..

NPX has not been known for volume trading.

[winner69]

janner - what you thinking is behind this increase over the last few days? Esp a week or so after the not too flkash announcement

On pretty strong volumes as well, esp the other day .... and a little bit activity in aussie as well

Maybe somebody sniffing around for the whole company .... now that would be a laugh

[janner]

Sniffing is good.. It is still 484 trades for 75632 shares.

Have memories of my ex wife sniffing me with good reason..

Is that a sign that i will move on to better things ??

[janner]

Sniffing is good.. It is still 484 trades for 75632 shares.

Have memories of my ex wife sniffing me with good reason..

Is that a sign that i will move on to better things ??

[winner69]

Anybody who has seen the latest NPX strategy preso and not been impressed must have bricks in their head .....what potential ....and zillions of value to be unlocked

Up up and away

[janner]

Winner.. Wnner.. " Up up and away "... ??

This is a boring old chemical company..

Just plain old ... Onward and Upward... Will suffice..

Did we not tell them all ???.. Heheh .

[winner69]

Something going on - either specialties or a decent chunk of it goes ....or maybe the whole lot.

Plenty of global logos in the preso ......whoops FPA had a preso like that today

[Lizard]

Something going on - either specialties or a decent chunk of it goes ....or maybe the whole lot.

Plenty of global logos in the preso ......whoops FPA had a preso like that today

Yes, the presentation does look rather like a big fat hint.

[janner]

Fellow share collectors.. ( As Lizard may put it )..

I will reference you to my previous posts.. 1003. 1018.. 1024..1028.. 1041..1050..1052..1061..

A company going GLOBAL.. or the GLOBE will stop them.. At a PRICE..

Just a boring Chemical Company.. Yeah right !!..

What say you about that Percy ?? Now on your horizon ??

[winner69]

Just a boring Chemical Company.. Yeah right !!..



Still a pretty boring old chemical company janner ...... even you janner would have to agree that all the cash they have colelcted from long suffering shareholders over the years is still not making any extra returns ..... in spite of dominating the world, even Russia I heard them say. They said these acquisitions were all eps accretive .... yeah right

You have rose tinted glasses because you were astute and clever enough to buy when they were unloved .... that is always the best time to make decent gains eh

Never mind the new blood running the company with their expertise in Powerpoint have tarted up their presentations and made the world excited about them .... pretty pictures and diagrams and flow charts and the right words and heck the world is exciting again ..... and even Lizard would have to be excited about Slide 30 .... maybe a leading contender for Slide of the Year this one ..... see janner how they have spiced up their business with the latest buzzwords .... easier to get excited with those words than polymers etc

Whatever the world is excited about NPX .... markets are booming and NPX going along for the ride ..... so why not join in .......up up and away ..... just like a red balloon ..... whoops red balloons can go pop just like that

Anyway the slide of the year

[winner69]

For some of us who have been around for a while boring old chemical companies can be very proditable for even long term traders (maybe not for investors) ..... esp when boring is not what what punters want .... like a couple of times over the last 10 years they have been stars .... but had a few hiccups along the way including one real disaster eh

Posted this just for to bring back memories of previous good (exciting) times ..... but also as a reminder that red balloons can turn into lead balloons

[percy]

Weakened for a moment and went to read NPX presentation,but if you think I am going to read anything signed by
E.James Williams,VICE PRESIDENT,GENERAL COUNSEL, and COMPANY SECRETARY,you have me all wrong.
Does he get paid extra for all the titles?

[winner69]

Weakened for a moment and went to read NPX presentation,but if you think I am going to read anything signed by
E.James Williams,VICE PRESIDENT,GENERAL COUNSEL, and COMPANY SECRETARY,you have me all wrong.
Does he get paid extra for all the titles?

this thread had a laugh a few years ago about NPX having about 9 or 10 Presidentos or Vice Presidentos

You'd love this slide .... sort of meant to show how the prsidentos fit in I think

[janner]

Not been an original holder..

Thus ... Only look at NPX from my pick up of this company from it's LOW piont..

It has been bloody good Divie returns for me.. And even better on todays ROI..

Believe me or believe me not .. :-))

[winner69]

One would have to say Qantas are very perceptive ......they looked at the number of presidents and vie presidents and mapped out where they were based and said ha ha NPX hq is Sydney ......we Need to make it easy for them .....let's do a deal with Emirates ..... Sydney to Dubai and then all points these presidents etc want to go to ......well done Qantas ....and NPX people have more time to make money ....win win ...and up up and away

[percy]

this thread had a laugh a few years ago about NPX having about 9 or 10 Presidentos or Vice Presidentos

You'd love this slide .... sort of meant to show how the prsidentos fit in I think

HARNESS ONE TEAM...???????? HARNESS all the Presidents.? Yeah right.!
winner69,thanks when I need a good laugh and some new buzz words I know where to look.
In the meantime I would advise THE PRESIDENT<CEO and whatever titles he goes by, to read "Serious Fun The Alan Gibbs Story" to realise just how stupid he is with all the presidents and vice presidents titles.

[janner]

Come on guys.. Is it going to make money ??.. No matter what they call themselves I think the answer is YES !..

Is it still a good bet ??.. Which is what we are all doing .. Yes.. I think that there is still quite an upside there to ride..

Missed out on the FPA ... So there are plenty of other companies to watch..

[winner69]

Janner ... while the world remains excited and rsther risk adverse and NPX keep pumping out pretty presentations (the latest one will get good mileage around the world as they do the rounds of analysts) there is no reason why the shareprice should not keep going up .... but one would have to say that on fundamentals (and past performance) it is getting pretty richly valued ..... but what the heck fundamnetals mean squat all the moment

As Mr P keep reminding us 'The market giveth but the market also taketh away' .... I have an exit strategy ... do you janner so you keep most of these good gains you have made

As essentially an Aussie company now that has gone global I hope they do get get some overseas investors ..... esp if they want to acquire more things .... easier to get cash out of happy overseas investors than NZ ones I think

Still boring old chemical company .... polymers do not excite me that much ..... but as a line a price chart quite exciting

[janner]

To long in the tooth not to have an exit strategy Winner..

[winner69]

To long in the tooth not to have an exit strategy Winner..

Good to hear mate ..... just remember pay more attention to the price (and that line on the chart) and only take a passing interest in the company performance ..... maybe NPX is what Mr Buffett would classify 'our favourite holding period is forever'

[janner]

Warren Buffet... What would that young whipper snapper know ?? :):):)

[percy]

To long in the tooth not to have an exit strategy Winner..

Don't think you will need to exit for awhile.I have just read the "stategy briefing".It was excellent.Well set out,clear ,simple, and gives good direction.
janner you are right,and I was wrong.[again]

[winner69]

Pick up any new buzz words Percy?

Better buy some ......up up and away

[percy]

Pick up any new buzz words Percy?

Better buy some ......up up and away

No,was rather impressed it was plain language.
Trying not to buy at present.Thinking of taking a bit off the table,too many up up and away.Usually when I start adding up what I have made I end up giving it back to the market.Off course momemtum takes shares too high,however most yields are still a lot higher than I would get on deposit. Not sorry I sold MLN and FBU.

[winner69]

Highest price since the share split shortly after the disastes of a few years agao when nearly wiped out shareholders has been 361 (early last year)

Getting back there .... hell how is this fundamnetal analysis ..... if it was worth 361 early last year in light of that strategy presentation it must be at least 361 today ... and janner says 400 plus

Up up and away

[winner69]

Jeez NPX still going up .....world is happy and most things going up but NPX going up this fast makes no sense ..but heck what does common sense mean these days

Wonder what is behind those rumors of some corporate activity?


Up up and away .....but in NPX case watch those lines on the chart ... I am

[winner69]

A chemist mate saw that preso ....being scientific type the first thing he said was that graphic they proudly use on every page is one heck of an unstable compound .....hope not a bad omen

[winner69]

Preso being touted in Germany .... nice one .... should get a few more interested

And one of the stars of the NZX today as well ..... go NPX .... up up and away as they say

That 400 by end of October janner .... and maybe 500 by Xmas?

[h2so4]

Preso being touted in Germany .... nice one .... should get a few more interested

And one of the stars of the NZX today as well ..... go NPX .... up up and away as they say

That 400 by end of October janner .... and maybe 500 by Xmas?

I have it pegged at $5.29. Yes that's a nice round number.... up up and away.

[winner69]

Good stufftodays announcement ... getting rid of a lot of dead wood by consolidating on to a fewer sites .... and then the business portfolio stuff will follow in due course. See things were happening.

Millions to be written of ..... but in good old NPX language it is all EPS accretive .... they say that about everything but it never seems to eventuate

Anyway all the write offs dont count .... they are non cash eh (ie overstaed profits in the past is another way of putting that)

The market will like this sort of announcement .... don't worry about the immediate response .... some would say this a buying opportunity ........... up up and away still

[janner]

The lower the price the more return via the DRP..

[winner69]

The lower the price the more return via the DRP..

Absolutely ridiculous the response eh janner .... the market just doesn't get it does it sometime does it

All I can put it down to is that NPX may have pissed the market off just once too often and you don't want to do that too often eh ... all that good news touted a week or so ago and then they say profit will be down $17m (even though eps accretive eh)


As Belg says all be OK .... up up and away

[janner]

I dropped 17000 @3.20 :) Still hold plenty.

[winner69]

Dead cat bounce coming ...

you are right on belg .... the bottom has been reached .... on it's way up again

[winner69]

I dropped 17000 @3.20 :) Still hold plenty.

EPS accretive 2 cents they say ... a forward looking market should have said whoopee and added 25 cents to the shareprice eh (if a PE of 12)

But what does it do ... sends it down 25 cents .... jeez thats a 50 cents drop in real terms .... the market just doesn't get it

[janner]

Your right winner.. I think that it will not be " getting " it for a few months so have put the money into HNZ.. which has already risen 2 cents..

[winner69]

Forsyth Barr weighs in with their thoughts:

What’s changed?



Earnings Impact: Downgrade FY13 EBITDA -5.6% to $138.4m.
Valuation Impact: Downgrade valuation from $3.85 to $3.77.
Recommendation: Retain ACCUMULATE recommendation.



Cant be right sparky ..... must have got their sums wrong or something ..... heck last years EBITDA was $131m and they still ahve the full year of that eps accretive acquisition they made.

And that $3.77 looks far too cheap ..... guru Forbar analysts usually not this pessimistic

Accumulate .... heck on these numbers it is a SCREAMING BUY or aren't analysts allowed to say things like this

[winner69]

So NPX to have $17m in unusuals this year .... writedowns, restructure, closeure costs and all that sort of stuff. No need to worry though as mostly non cash ... and the exercise is eps accretive

Why bother call them unusuals (or non recurring costs) in the first place .... of course so they can reported a normal operating profit which is normally quite good eh

But heck outfits like NPX have unusuals or non recurring costs every year. NPX for instance have reported millions of unusuals every year - in the last 6 years (not counting this year) some $35.7m - some 11% of operating profit (normal) over that that time

Unusuals in a lot of cases is an adjustment to past profits. The problem when looking forward is that these unusuals (non recurring) will never occur again .... but a lot of companies (like NPX) will always have them .... so any guru analyst predictions should always be discounted eh

Might be non cash this year but in the past they were cash once - shareholders cash

[winner69]

The world is all fixed now sparky .....any good stocks will be taking off ....look at FBU as well ..... And heaps more

Nothing special bout Nuplex ...just market sentiment

[percy]

NPX meeting must have been fun,with "poll" needed to pass director's fee increase.Surely,the directors lack common sense to go to an AGM and push for an increase while laying off a large number of staff,both here and in Aussie.
I did warn some time about too many presidents,now I wonder where this company will go with directors who lack good judgement.
Pay peanuts you get Monkeys.NPX has ended up with over feed Apes. lol.

[kizame]

What happened to Nuplex this morning? 5% dip and no news of any kind to the market? At least, none I have picked up?

Edit: Only 8000 shares as of 10:49 this morning. Must be some sap selling out for a quick sale.

Further edit: Apologies if the sap is reading this.
Yes the short term technicals didn't look good so I held off buying, Macd, etc. divergences,that's usually a tell tale sign.

[winner69]

What happened to Nuplex this morning? 5% dip and no news of any kind to the market? At least, none I have picked up?

Edit: Only 8000 shares as of 10:49 this morning. Must be some sap selling out for a quick sale.

Further edit: Apologies if the sap is reading this.

Just noise .... npx will be 400 one day .... wont be 300 again

[macduffy]

I hope you're right, winner. I'm always a bit suspicious when there's a big price movement in the interval between the end of the period and reporting, despite the requirement to keep the market informed. Incidentally, today's sale has set a new price level for the present with a few thou more traded.

[winner69]

see it was just noise .... all back to normal

[Vaygor1]

see it was just noise .... all back to normal

It always worries me this. I have seen it occur with this exact timing a lot through the years.

The way I see it is that those employed within (or on the board of) any listed company who are privy to market-sensitive information receive such data almost on a daily basis. These employees & board members are governed by Stock Exchange rules when it comes to them buying or selling. (Announcing intentions, trading/non-trading windows).

Such rules cut down on the potential for insider trading, or certainly limit the impact as ones volumes of trade need to be kept low to avoid scrutiny. Friends or family members of those in the know may still receive bits of 'news' well in advance but, if so, would not normally need to buy or sell in any great rush.

But what happens when the financials are passed to the company's auditors say a month before the annual report release date? Are they governed by any rules? The trouble is that the auditors receive the good news (or the bad news) in one fell swoop. Are they under scrutiny?.... or subject to the same rules?.. what about the aunties, uncles, sisters of those auditors receiving the information?

I have seen this kind of 'blip' (up or down, and in small volumes) a month before reporting date far too often and then seen the share price rapidly head the same way as the blip did in the minutes/hours/days/weeks following the release of the annual report.

I really do hope and trust that this sudden down blip in NPX is not an indication of what is about to come upon release date. We will all know soon enough.

Vaygor1 (Conspiracy Theorist?)

[winner69]

Mr P a years or so posted a classic chart of NPX over the years ..... compelling in that preceding a good announcement the NPX shareprice would go up and preceding a bad announcement the shareprice would go down .... and he made the obvious staement

Gaynor in thr Herald had a piece the other day .... too many companies 'leak' info to analysts so a few special people get an advantage .... while the plebs miss out

[winner69]

Bonza of an announcement coming up ......mr p would say some know already

Share price getting close to record?

[macduffy]

Yes, going great guns, SP-wise, with a very impressive chart!

I'm keeping an eye on that Relative Strength number though as it powers past the 80% mark. I get a bit nervous at these heights which rarely manage to maintain momentum - for my stocks, at least!

Any TA comment from the "knowledgeable"?

:confused:

[kizame]

Yes, going great guns, SP-wise, with a very impressive chart!

I'm keeping an eye on that Relative Strength number though as it powers past the 80% mark. I get a bit nervous at these heights which rarely manage to maintain momentum - for my stocks, at least!

Any TA comment from the "knowledgeable"?

:confused:

Yeah is over 80% on RS and I don't have todays 6c jump on my chart but sometimes an uptrend can cause the RS to stay in overbought territory for a while,the comforting factor for you is that it's on a historical PE of only 11 and dividend yield of 6%.
Twiggs moneyflow and OBV are trending up so money is moving into the stock.

[macduffy]

Thanks, kizame.

Vigilance required!

:)

[RazorX]

Like Kizame said the RS is at 80%, as is the Stoch. Lots of upward momentum but from the chart below you can see that sharp rises often preceed equally sharp falls. I have drawn what I consider to be the major support and resistance areas. Note the last time the price was at these levels back around Oct 2010 the price action was quite choppy. Personally I am watching NPX closely now.

4329

[winner69]

Oooh - I hope so! If they can manage a measly 5% earnings growth over the next few years then they are a rip roaring screaming keeper. Will easily re-rate to a P/E of 12.5-13.5

shareprice suggested a bonza of a result ...,. but the boring old chemical company lived up to its reputation of never really delivering on what it says

Whether one looks at pre abnormals or with abnormals or add on future costs savings or make allowance for being based in a country that should be proud of a strong dollar this result was entirely as expected

Like good old fashioned chemical companies steady as she goes eh ... but nothing fantastic .... and they need to learn to stop hyping themeselves up t something they aint

[macduffy]

I hope you're right, winner. I'm always a bit suspicious when there's a big price movement in the interval between the end of the period and reporting, despite the requirement to keep the market informed. Incidentally, today's sale has set a new price level for the present with a few thou more traded.

So, it wasn't just "market noise" after all. Someone, somewhere, often seems to get the "gossip" right more often than not - and the market usually takes notice.

[percy]

shareprice suggested a bonza of a result ...,. but the boring old chemical company lived up to its reputation of never really delivering on what it says

Whether one looks at pre abnormals or with abnormals or add on future costs savings or make allowance for being based in a country that should be proud of a strong dollar this result was entirely as expected

Like good old fashioned chemical companies steady as she goes eh ... but nothing fantastic .... and they need to learn to stop hyping themeselves up t something they aint

Hype comes with having so many Presidents on the payroll.

[winner69]

So, it wasn't just "market noise" after all. Someone, somewhere, often seems to get the "gossip" right more often than not - and the market usually takes notice.

It has been all 'noise' .... shareprice now where it was when we first mentioned 'noise'

I am surprised there hasn't been a bigger reaction to this awful announcement .... earningas down as well a reasonably significant ptofit downgrade

Never mind ... what do i know anyway

[janner]

It has been all 'noise' .... shareprice now where it was when we first mentioned 'noise'

I am surprised there hasn't been a bigger reaction to this awful announcement .... earningas down as well a reasonably significant ptofit downgrade

Never mind ... what do i know anyway

Dropped my NPX in November.. I think it was.. ( old age ) . @ 3.20/3.16.. @ a very good profit..

Slipped the six figure sum quietly into HNZ..

So winner when you say..

" All to their own janner .... now janner its past your bed time so get percy to tuck you up in bed so you can have sweet dreams about Heartland "...

NEVER FORGET WINNER... OLD AGE AND CUNNING WILL ALWAYS WIN IN THE END .... :D:D:D

[winner69]

Dropped my NPX in November.. I think it was.. ( old age ) . @ 3.20/3.16.. @ a very good profit..

Slipped the six figure sum quietly into HNZ..

So winner when you say..

" All to their own janner .... now janner its past your bed time so get percy to tuck you up in bed so you can have sweet dreams about Heartland "...

NEVER FORGET WINNER... OLD AGE AND CUNNING WILL ALWAYS WIN IN THE END .... :D:D:D

Well done janner .... never doubted you were a winner .... obviously comes with getting older .... I'll look forward to getting old

Also remember that comment was about punters doing their own thing (you were being disparaging about anybody being interested in rakon) .... good to see that you ahve done your own thing (all to their own) and making zillions in the process

at what age is one classifies as old .... paper had a story about elderly gentleman being knoocked over by a car the other day .... he was 57 .... must have been written by some 20 year old chick eh

[percy]

NPX will report a bottom line of $60m plus a bit ..... ie about 32 cents a share - a PE of about 9

NPX for years traded at about 10 to 11 times earnings - what good old fashioned chemical companies should do eh

So currently NPX priced 'about right' and should increase over the next year in line with profit increases .... which according to the the expects are a modest 3%-4%

Interested as to why you think a PE of 15 for NPX 'seems about right in the current environment' .... thats a pretty hefty PE for a company like NPX. Interestingly the last time NPX had a PE of 15 was when its shareprice was about its highest ever .... before promises and expectations did not come to reality and it all turned to custard for them and shareholders

Like percy looking forward to the announcement ... wonder if the comments will have the real positive spin that Hirst always put on things

Bringing this post up as winner69 mentions that NPX have traded around PE of 10 to 11 for years.Any reason for it to trade on a higher multiple?

[janner]

Well done janner .... never doubted you were a winner .... obviously comes with getting older .... I'll look forward to getting old

Also remember that comment was about punters doing their own thing (you were being disparaging about anybody being interested in rakon) .... good to see that you ahve done your own thing (all to their own) and making zillions in the process


Disparaging !!.. Moi !!... Not at all winner.. Just passing my thoughts on companies that are obviously DOGS..

Rakon.. Pike River.. etc.. OK there " maybe " a good buck to make.. i.e. PEB... Wait until the trend is the friend is the age old saying... It ain't wrong...

Had NPX since just before the 1 for 4 .. Rode it up to 3.70 and sold some.... Bought some on the down..
I do not have to tell you how it is done.. :-)

What I do not understand is why anyone ( lazylarry ) can think that they can beat Mr. Market..

Sorry lazylarry... Miracles do happen :-)


at what age is one classifies as old .... paper had a story about elderly gentleman being knoocked over by a car the other day .... he was 57 .... must have been written by some 20 year old chick eh

You answered this one yourself winner..

The dead guy was obviously busy looking at the 20 year old chick..

You are old when you give up looking at 20/29/30/39/40/49/50/59 You have to draw the line some where .. CHICKS..

Can still pull them :-))

[janner]

Sorry . Getting all hot under the collar thinking about CHICKS..

This was supposed to have been in the above answer..

Disparaging !!.. Moi !!... Not at all winner.. Just passing my thoughts on companies that are obviously DOGS..

Rakon.. Pike River.. etc.. OK there " maybe " a good buck to make.. i.e. PEB... Wait until the trend is the friend is the age old saying... It ain't wrong...

Had NPX since just before the 1 for 4 .. Rode it up to 3.70 and sold some.... Bought some on the down..
I do not have to tell you how it is done.. :-)

What I do not understand is why anyone ( lazylarry ) can think that they can beat Mr. Market..

Sorry lazylarry... Miracles do happen :-)

[janner]

So they say.

Speaking from experience are you STC..

[janner]

My best wishes to you both..

What more can one say :-)

[Minerbarejet]

Whats going on here with a 13 cent drop yesterday? No announcements that I am aware of. RSI has crossed the bottom line and hardly any buyers.
One is sitting at 1.26 which would seem a tad optimistic. Presumably the money is placed up front for a purchase so why would you tie up 25000 like that. Hoping for a big seller at market price I suppose.

[winner69]

Major ... We been through al this before ......just noise .....the ebbs and flows of the market eh

Stop worrying

When NPX make an announcement it's always good news .....even profit downgrades

[percy]

Whats going on here with a 13 cent drop yesterday? No announcements that I am aware of. RSI has crossed the bottom line and hardly any buyers.
One is sitting at 1.26 which would seem a tad optimistic. Presumably the money is placed up front for a purchase so why would you tie up 25000 like that. Hoping for a big seller at market price I suppose.

In a down trend.Close to breaking the 200 day moving average,which means it is in danger zone.

[winner69]

Maybe it is more than noise when you look at the chart

10% off the peak is not a good look. Also price now less than the excitment after the last profit announcement

Mr Fibonacci would say worry if it goes to 303 because 287 is the next stop after that

But then again punters have finallay realised this is just an old fashioned chemical company that talks up growth .... the 2 don't normally go hand in hand .... jeez, demand slowing and an increasing NZD not a good mix for NPX

Belg mentioned FX as a reason .... maybe statements from the likes of Iluka about demand for things for TiO2 not being great (where TiO2 goes resins usually follow) is what punters should heed

[Hoop]

belgie has sold down ... worried about FX

Belgie is wise :D

but should be worried about TA not FX

NPX is a rare breed of stock.... its an example of a TA's dream....it all works to theory.
At this moment NPX is technically totally broken.
The next Targeted area to where it could bottom out is 3.00-3.05 but I suspect this could be short term only.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NPX18042013.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NPX18042013.png.html)

A 4 year time frame chart shows NPX in a rectangle pattern ( nice yearly trading pattern) between 2.20 and 3.60...I have added the long range reliable Coppock indicator which highlights bull and bear cycles...notice on Aug 15th 2012 when the share was at 2.58 the Coppock turning together with MA200 and EMA50 suggested the bear cycle was over.
Although the Coppock is inconclusive at the moment...looking at the failure to break that 3.60 trading pattern it is hinting at a possibility of a weakening cyclic bull market which could be indicate NPX 3.60 is again a top and cyclic reversal back to bear status is on the cards soon.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NPX4year18042013.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NPX4year18042013.png.html)

[percy]

Hoop thank you for the charts and commentary.

[winner69]

Hoop - I could kiss you. I have never heard of Coppock until now. Have looked up on Wikipedia. Will be enjoying reading this up over the weekend.

Coppock Indicator on the ASX All Ords is very reliable and shows the major turning points quite clearly .... I posted a chart on that thread and one for the nZX50 a month or so ago .... it was still all up up and away ..... long weekend coming up so might update it

The turning points noted were also the turing points in both indices

[winner69]

so that european fund manager has been buying since early feb and now owns 5% of NPX .... heck a keen buyer (even bought sparky's few hundred thousand) and the price still drifting down ... a bit strange

Maybe they do more averaging down and keep the shareprice up

Interesting a fund manager from europe interested in npx .... all the presidents and vice presidents will be happy they are now globally recognised ..... but maybe a good thing

[Minerbarejet]

Major ... We been through al this before ......just noise .....the ebbs and flows of the market eh

Stop worrying

When NPX make an announcement it's always good news .....even profit downgrades

I wasn't worried Winner - sold out at a bit early at 3.18 on the way up that's all - was just looking to see if I should start picking some more up shortly. Bought Heartland and Warehouse with mine and a few of moosies NTL. Been in and out four times with this
Thanks for all the feedback everyone, good charts and suggestions. Will watch closely -as we do.

[winner69]

That noise is back .....heck down to 310 again

[janner]

As an old NPX follower from the lows... Selling @ 3.20 to 3.16 ( made good money )..

I find at the moment it is not worth considering re-entry...

America " maybe " climbing .. Euro most certainly is not.. China ?? Who knows really what is happening there ??..

[winner69]

Maybe it is more than noise when you look at the chart

10% off the peak is not a good look. Also price now less than the excitment after the last profit announcement

Mr Fibonacci would say worry if it goes to 303 because 287 is the next stop after that

But then again punters have finallay realised this is just an old fashioned chemical company that talks up growth .... the 2 don't normally go hand in hand .... jeez, demand slowing and an increasing NZD not a good mix for NPX

Belg mentioned FX as a reason .... maybe statements from the likes of Iluka about demand for things for TiO2 not being great (where TiO2 goes resins usually follow) is what punters should heed

Nuplex up to their old tricks ... did I see a profit downgrade just then .... or was it just a bit of noise

Time for some Vice Presidentos to go I reckon .... they need to stop acting like a growth company .... and behave more like an opld fashioned chemicals company

So ebitda still hasn't increased in spite of the many (signifcant) acquisitions over the last few years.... yep those eps accretive ones yeah right

[winner69]

goodness gracious .... must be early drinks somewhere for the vice presidents .... couldn't wait for the 5pm on a Friday bad news announcement strategy

[percy]

Nuplex up to their old tricks ... did I see a profit downgrade just then .... or was it just a bit of noise

Time for some Vice Presidentos to go I reckon .... they need to stop acting like a growth company .... and behave more like an opld fashioned chemicals company

So ebitda still hasn't increased in spite of the many (signifcant) acquisitions over the last few years.... yep those eps accretive ones yeah right

No surprises there.!!!!
May have to wait until NuLeap xv.!!!! Yeah right>!!!
Bullet 1 usually focuses attention better.!!!!!

[percy]

how many cans of energy drink have you had today percy????
Do i need to send you some valium???


Yes I am getting a bit over excited.
Meeting up with the bright people at last night's sharetrader get together.
AWF,and RYM results set me off on new highs.
Can't sleep waiting for exciting announcements from HNZ,and then on the 7th June www.estaronline announcement should make my dreams come true.Plus my CAJ in Aussie is back on it's upward trejactory.And I just love my POT,and think my RUM[aussie]must be well positioned for the upturn.
[yes I have brought more estaronline and HNZ for the wife,she loves divies.]

[Lawt]

And yet morning star have issued a revised valuation for them of $3.50 - taking account of the new downgrade.