Listed Property Trusts

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Lol at this sea of red performance today of NZ listed property names, despite the very good news on the 2024 interest rate environment.

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[bull....]

probably the GDP data put a dampener on the sector

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Today was much more reflective of the new environment of expected rate drops:

Not only will future interest costs for these companies look better, but more immediately the dividends start looking much better to those looking for good returns when fixed interest rates start dropping.

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[LaserEyeKiwi]

USA REITS having a stunning rebound lately, well off the lows. here is the biggest by funds under management:

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[GTM 3442]

USA REITS having a stunning rebound lately, well off the lows. here is the biggest by funds under management:

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Out of idle curiosity, how did VNQI (Vanguard's non-USA Commercial Property ETF) do in comparison?

[winner69]

Maybe of interest

From Madison … Big debt bills forcing property developers to sell assets



https://www.youtube.com/embed/RViSLH1U_UE

[whatsup]

Maybe of interest

From Madison … Big debt bills forcing property developers to sell assets



https://www.youtube.com/embed/RViSLH1U_UE

What was the date of this interview ?

[winner69]

Maybe of interest

From Madison … Big debt bills forcing property developers to sell assets



https://www.youtube.com/embed/RViSLH1U_UE


Todays Herald

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/big-debt-bills-forcing-property-developers-to-sell-assets/7GN2RFX2O5GM7D7KYVTEHKJ2UM/

[Jenny Ruth]

Hi all. The latest column published on my Substack, Just the Business, this morning looks at the proposal to internalise Goodman Property Trust's management contract. The headline is: Goodman proposal is a $500m “vote of confidence in NZ”
And you can find it here:
https://justthebusinessjennyruth.substack.com/p/goodman-proposal-is-a-500m-vote-of

[winner69]

Just as well NZ not in same boat

Australia’s office block problem is getting worse



Office property values in Australia have plunged more than 10 per cent in the last six months and could fall further as high interest rates and the work from home trend take their toll on demand.



https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/office-values-crumble-as-city-towers-sell-for-big-discounts-20240702-p5jqgg.html

[kiwikeith]

Just as well NZ not in same boat

Australia’s office block problem is getting worse



Office property values in Australia have plunged more than 10 per cent in the last six months and could fall further as high interest rates and the work from home trend take their toll on demand.



https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/office-values-crumble-as-city-towers-sell-for-big-discounts-20240702-p5jqgg.html


I guess that is why Precinct is venturing into student accommodation. Precinct will be the most affected by office market issues. Argosy, Stride and kiwi to a lesser extent.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Wow the Readings site in central wellington is up for sale - going to be fascinating to see who snaps this up for development. Doesn’t get much better in terms of location and views for such a big central city site (1.5 hectares) for those companies that are comfortable building in Wellington.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/wellingtons-most-important-development-opportunity-45865https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/4348b708-8f6e-41a9-8d77-065fb9d1e46d

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[kiwikeith]

Property Reits in the US, as measured by the Vanguard Real Estate Index fund (VNQ), have been on a good run in recent weeks. Commentators put this down to anticipated cuts in interest rates going forward. VNQ is currently trading around 24% above its 12 month lows. Meanwhile, the NZ property Index on the NZX (listed as NPF) and mostly holds shares in the NZ listed property companies/trusts (top holdings being PCT, GMT, KPG, PFI, VHP, ARG, SPG and IPL account for over 98% of its holdings and weighted in that order) is about 3% above its 12 month lows.

I would have expected a larger uptick in NZ listed property companies given that interest rates in NZ are expected to be considerably lower in the next 6 to 12 months. Good time to buy (excl GMT which seems relatively over-priced) in my view.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Property Reits in the US, as measured by the Vanguard Real Estate Index fund (VNQ), have been on a good run in recent weeks. Commentators put this down to anticipated cuts in interest rates going forward. VNQ is currently trading around 24% above its 12 month lows. Meanwhile, the NZ property Index on the NZX (listed as NPF) and mostly holds shares in the NZ listed property companies/trusts (top holdings being PCT, GMT, KPG, PFI, VHP, ARG, SPG and IPL account for over 98% of its holdings and weighted in that order) is about 3% above its 12 month lows.

I would have expected a larger uptick in NZ listed property companies given that interest rates in NZ are expected to be considerably lower in the next 6 to 12 months. Good time to buy (excl GMT which seems relatively over-priced) in my view.

It’s mostly sentiment combined with NZ retail investors seeming to foolishly have very short investment horizons (at least creates good buying opportunities for long term investors). But on top of that the government announcement of the removal of tax depreciation on commercial buildings has also led to near term slight reductions in forward earnings expectations despite our listed property entities having very good occupancy and continued rental increases.